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One-inch hail at 18°F in NE; record snows in SD

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on April 10, 2013

It's crazy spring weather at its finest in the Midwest U.S., where a powerful April storm system is bringing heavy snow, large hail, strong winds, freezing rain, heavy rain, and a remarkable temperature contrast on either side of its cold front. Abilene, Texas reached 93° Tuesday between 4 - 5 pm, and by 12:30 a.m Wednesday, it was snowing and 37°. Texas had an extreme temperature range state-wide on Tuesday of at least 86°: from 108° in Laredo, to 22° in Dalhart. A damaging hail storm moved though the west side of Omaha, Nebraska on Tuesday night, bringing hail up to 2" inches in diameter with damage to cars, skylights, roofs and windshields, according to the Omaha World-Herald. The Grand Island, NE airport had hail up to nickel size while the temperature was 27°F, and one location nearby had 1" sized hail with a surface temperature of just 18°F. It is very rare to see large hail with surface temperatures this cold; the unusual weather was made possible by elevated thunderstorms along a front aloft, above a shallow surface-based cold layer. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post, Incredible Temperature Gradient in Southern/Central Plains, discussing the remarkable contrast between the weather on either side of the cold front. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is predicting a "Slight" chance of severe weather today through Friday along the storm's cold front, as it sweeps eastwards towards the East Coast.

A remarkable 20" of snow piled up in Rapid City, SD on Tuesday--the city's snowiest day of all-time. The previous one-day record was 18", set on April 22, 2001. The snow continues to fall in the city, with a storm-total accumulation of 25" as of 8 am CDT. The storm has knocked out power to thousands in the Sioux Fall, SD area, and I-90 is closed between Rapid City and Mitchell this morning. However, the Rapid City area is under the highest level of drought, exceptional, so the record snow storm is not entirely unwelcome. Widespread areas of one to two inches of precipitation have fallen over some of the hardest-hit drought areas of South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Nebraska this week, making the week one of the biggest for Midwest drought reduction experienced in the past year.

I'll have a new post late this morning on the latest hurricane season forecasts.

Jeff Masters
Ice Storm
Ice Storm
Unhappy grass
Hail
Hail
Rain earlier in the day, then snow and large hail similar to a thunderstorm. Larger stones are a little over 1 inch.

Severe Weather Winter Weather Walda

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

CSU bucket go BOOM. (Thanks Doc)
That's cold for hail!
Interesting read...

"Dark Lightning: Are Airplane Passengers Exposed to Radiation from Intense Bursts of Gamma-Rays from Thunderclouds?"

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
You know people are desperate for hurricanes when we post model runs that are like a month out.lol.

Speaking of heat it is already 75 degrees at my location and it is barely 9:30 outside.I wouldn't be surprised if we reach low 90's.

Yesterday was a good reason why I don't like to bring up G.W because people get offended and go off the brim.


I was just feeding Taz some more Hurricane pie since he seems hungry for a Hurricane.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I was just feeding Taz some more Hurricane pie since he seems hungry for a Hurricane.



oh well you shut it all ready
For those of you who just joined us:

CSU's 18-9-4 2013 season forecast.

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:


I was just feeding Taz some more Hurricane pie since he seems hungry for a Hurricane.
I wouldn't mind tracking a invest...heck I'll even track Ernesto again if it all comes down to it. "And everyone knows how that went.".
Thanks Doc.
Thanks Doc
Goodness it's soup out there in S C IL! 70 at 8:30, 63 dew pt, 78%, 9mph from S, gust to 20. Said cold front would come through StL 7-10 tonight on StL TV last night, said may not be as severe prior to that passage if pop ups this a.m. could rob some energy. Looks to not be robbing much, could get interesting this afternoon.
Yes! a hurricanes blog later on thanks Doc.
Thanks Dr. Masters

CSU's prediction of 18-9-4 is close to mine of 18-9-3. I wasn't expecting that.
Looks to me like CSU is wishcasting :)

/s

I have 14-18, 4-8, and 1-3... they are higher than me.
Quoting Tazmanian:



oh well you shut it all ready

why should i? You showed what an epac "system" 384hrs out??? Your desperate to track a Hurricane. Admit it. I am but It's not time yet to just enjoy your time and chillax. We might be busy this year tracking multiple systems.

CSU 18 - 9 Hurricanes - 4 Major Hurricanes = BUSY YES???
Thanks Doc !!!
...and it begins. I think this is going to be a "banter" year for the blog. Maybe even as funny as 2011...or as disturbing as 2009? We shall see...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes! a hurricanes blog later on thanks Doc.


Cant wait!!
I hope we don't have any more Ernesto's and Issac's for a while..lord have mercy on our souls.
Quoting muddertracker:
...and it begins. I think this is going to be a "banter" year for the blog. Maybe even as funny as 2011...or as disturbing as 2009? We shall see...


no, we're not allowed to funny here anymore. No humor allowed.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope we don't have any more Ernesto's and Issac's for a while..lord have mercy on our souls.


makes for an interesting blog discussion..I enjoy it myself seeing the comments
Quoting SLU:
CSU's forecast is out. It's a surprising 18-9-4!

Link


Thanks.Doc

However is something close to my prediction 19-12-5; the number of majors will be related with the vertical instability and how strong will be trade winds and wind shear in the atlantic and carribean, that seem like will be below of last year because the Enso predicting neutral to La Nina event for summner- fall.
Quoting aquak9:


no, we're not allowed to funny here anymore. No humor allowed.


...you just have to sneak in a quick quip here are there..:) It can be done! The "blog police" can be outsmarted! (or at least out punctuated)
Texas had an extreme temperature range state-wide on Tuesday of at least 86°: from 108° in Laredo, to 22° in Dalhart.
Quoting aquak9:


no, we're not allowed to funny here anymore. No humor allowed.
We need humor here!.If the blog gets to strict it'll get boring.
Quoting ncstorm:


makes for an interesting blog discussion..I enjoy it myself seeing the comments
Ha ha but the funnt thing about these storms is that when they did look good they didn't have a center and were basically open waves,and they always waited until the last minute to get their act together.

BTW is Stewart going to be the main man again this year in terms of peoples favorite?.
I am excited to hear of a new hurricane season forecast. I have made some predictions of my own on my blog. I am interested to see how the estimates compare.
Quoting muddertracker:
...and it begins. I think this is going to be a "banter" year for the blog. Maybe even as funny as 2011...or as disturbing as 2009? We shall see...


maybe its sort of like an el nino/la nina cycle?

funny, disturbing, disturbing, funny, disturbing, calm, etc.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ha ha but the funnt thing about these storms is that when they did look good they didn't have a center and were basically open waves,and they always waited until the last minute to get their act together.

BTW is Stewart going to be the main man again this year in terms of peoples favorite?.


I prefer Cangialosi and his full box of crayons.
Thanks for the blog update Dr. Masters..
I hope your trip to Arizona went well..
Good to hear of the upcoming blog on this hurricaine season..
Thanks again
Looks like an El Pina Colada of a season is coming
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ha ha but the funnt thing about these storms is that when they did look good they didn't have a center and were basically open waves,and they always waited until the last minute to get their act together.

BTW is Stewart going to be the main man again this year in terms of peoples favorite?.


He is the best at NHC,but other forecasters are very also very good such as the three B's Beven,Brown,Blake.
Quoting muddertracker:


I prefer Cangialosi and his full box of crayons.
Lol.I can't wait to see all those familiar colors again.Stewart was more laid back which is why I guessed people liked him so much and he wasn't that conservative.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like an El Pina Colada of a season is coming


don't put to much rum ^^^^^ Video in the blue link.
For anyone interested, here is the twitter feed for NHC director Rick Knabb:

Dr Knabb Twitter
Quoting PurpleDrank:
For anyone interested, here is the twitter feed for NHC director Rick Knabb:

Dr Knabb Twitter


Purpledrank, your avatar is somewhat scary..LOL..
I put him on ignore (sorry) because the flashing is just obnoxious.

Edit: 4chan, forerunners of Anonymous, posted flashing gifs on epilepsy forums ... for the lulz.
Quoting ncstorm:


Purpledrank, your avatar is somewhat scary..LOL..


You think his avatar is scary?

Be glad you don't know who he REALLY is.
Quoting bappit:
That's cold for hail!

Cold for hail? Isn't hail frozen, and therefore <32*F? :P

But all kidding aside, this storm has had a very unusual setup for sure. I've never seen anything quite like it!
Quoting AussieStorm:


don't put to much rum ^^^^^ Video in the blue link.


Is that Justin Timberlake's long lost father?
Pretty wild Jeff!
Quoting muddertracker:


Is that Justin Timberlake's long lost father?

Could be James Holmes Father... the Aurora shooting.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Cold for hail? Isn't hail frozen, and therefore <32*F? :P

But all kidding aside, this storm has had a very unusual setup for sure. I've never seen anything quite like it!

Wouldn't it be called Ice pellets?

Did TWC name the snow maker currently going on over there?
let's hope not!
Hypuweather(accuweather) usually releases their forecast around this time.Anyone when they will release theirs?.
The jet stream is pretty low right now. With 50+ days until the season officially starts, we'll have to see what it does.
Quoting aquak9:


no, we're not allowed to funny here anymore. No humor allowed.
The humor here has help me through some bad days. I hope the good stuff remains.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE PROBABILITIES...LOW-END
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST
STATES ON D5-6 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ENCOUNTERING AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE
ECMWF/CMC ARE CONSISTENTLY FASTER/WEAKER THAN THE GFS...RESULTING IN
MORE SUBDUED INLAND PENETRATION OF A GULF AIR MASS AND MODEST
KINEMATIC FIELDS.

MORE PROMINENT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE REALIZED TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS WOULD SETUP RETURN FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE CNTRL

CONUS...S OF A RELATIVELY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON D1-2 IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS DETRIMENTAL TO DRYING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN AS THE MOST
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAD...WHICH POTENTIALLY WILL YIELD A MORE
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH WITH IMMENSE SPREAD IN BOTH
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY EFFECT DOWNSTREAM
CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL POSITIONS. AS SUCH...CONSIDERING ANY
HIGHLIGHT FOR A SPECIFIC AREA/DAY WITH 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IS PREMATURE ATTM.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hypuweather(accuweather) usually releases their forecast around this time.Anyone when they will release theirs?.


40, 35, 20?
Top of WU page tells me Spfld, IL only mid 50s? Their paper's site says 69, like the 70 for StL & me, should be in same (sticky/soupy) airmass as us. Guess someones PWS on the fritz.

Looking at a couple of maps, sure is a bend to the E in the front line just above me, does this increase/decrease our severe wthr chances?
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Cold for hail? Isn't hail frozen, and therefore <32*F? :P

But all kidding aside, this storm has had a very unusual setup for sure. I've never seen anything quite like it!


From -5 C to 0 C or just below the freezing mark Ice is still very sticky and it makes it easy to Aggregate ice crystals together in the cloud along with super-cooled water to form larger hail
Three of Levi's four analogue years for this upcoming season were listed in CSU's report: 1952, 1966, and 1996.

He used 2005 as an analogue, CSU used 2004.

Good job.
Actually, not as low as I thought.

Link

Jet stream 10 day.
Locally heavy snow for Northwestern Wisconsin.
An interesting bit about gravitational lensing observed by Kepler Satellite..Link
The pattern that we saw in March is usually followed by several hurricane land falls duriing summer and early fall.
EYE, EYE, EYE!

The cold front must be slowing down. To think people were mentioning a Pacific front and dry line a couple of days ago. The cold air out ran everything.

VALID 12Z WED APR 10 2013 - 12Z FRI APR 12 2013

...A ROBUST SPRING STORM WILL POSE A THREAT FOR MULTIPLE HAZARDS
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NATION...

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PROGRESS
FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE NATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ALONG THE FRONT WHILE THE
LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME LATE SEASON SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE INTENSIFYING
SURFACE LOW AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WHERE
WARM AIR WILL BE OVERRUNNING SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.

MEANWHILE...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE SURGING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...COMBINED
WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT...WILL HELP FIRE UP AN ORGANIZED LINE
OF CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND EVEN TORNADOES.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF
THE ROBUST STORM EXITING THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OUT WEST...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST WILL BRING STEADY RAINS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INLAND AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE COUNTRY.


GERHARDT
Gee look at friday per GFS..................
Wow! on the temperature variance in Texas.

56 degree swing in Abilene in less than 12 hrs. That has to be close to a record without Chinook winds as a driving factor?
Pcola and Jedkins..Stay Alert thursday.............

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE
IS A SECONDARY FOR AN ISOLATED SHORT- LIVED TORNADO. THE BEST
TIMING AND AREA FOR THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE IN THE EVENING
HOURS AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF A UNION CITY
TENNESSEE TO COFFEEVILLE MISSISSIPPI LINE. SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

$$

JAB
Quoting FatPenguin:
Wow! on the temperature variance in Texas.

56 degree swing in Abilene in less than 12 hrs. That has to be close to a record without Chinook winds as a driving factor?


It's 45 in Austin right now. Muey Frio for April 10th.
Gonna be an active hurricane season I believe.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


From -5 C to 0 C or just below the freezing mark Ice is still very sticky and it makes it easy to Aggregate ice crystals together in the cloud along with super-cooled water to form larger hail

Correct, but that was supposed to be a bad joke. I usually keep my lacking sense of humor off Weather Underground, but things are very different in real life. :P
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay 5h
A slow increase in moisture will lead to isolated thunderstorms along the sea breeze this afternoon, mainly south of the bay area. #flwx
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
532 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-102330 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
532 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TODAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM
HIGHLANDS COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO THE FORT MYERS AREA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THE STORMS MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. IF THUNDER IS HEARD OR LIGHTNING
IS OBSERVED...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE ON
FRIDAY WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

MCMICHAEL



Quoting muddertracker:


It's 45 in Austin right now. Muey Frio for April 10th.


75-78 in SE TX
@65 I doubt it is the record but it is up there. From Chris Burt's blog:

"In Oklahoma, the front was just passing through the western portion of the state and, as of 1 p.m. CST, accompanied by a 50°F (28°C) drop of temperature over just an hour or two. It was 34°F (1°C) in Gage while just 100 miles to the southeast in Altus it was 82°F (28°C)."
Nice to see the afternoon sea breezes return.......
I think we might make it through the list this hurricane season.
Thurs Evening might get Rough mid south states......
Quoting bappit:
The cold front must be slowing down. To think people were mentioning a Pacific front and dry line a couple of days ago. The cold air out ran everything.


It cleared College Station about 45 minutes ago. Temps have dropped 19*F between now and then. I was actually out sampling the front north of here not long before that and the temp gradient is still pretty insane. Big Blue's (my car) thermometer shot down about 8*F in a matter of seconds and 15*F in two minutes of driving. Crossing back to the warm side was particularly interesting, with my windows completely fogging up as soon as I crossed the boundary, blinding me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Three of Levi's four analogue years for this upcoming season were listed in CSU's report: 1952, 1966, and 1996.

He used 2005 as an analogue, CSU used 2004.

Good job.
I find it interesting that they use 52 as an analog season. There were not that many storms that year, but are predicting 18.
Saturday florida needs to be alert when this gets here..
Quoting LargoFl:
Thurs Evening might get Rough mid south states......
I saw that..I do not like the way it looks. Wind damage is common here on the plateau, especially with a squall line. There are still signs of past storms all around me.
Quoting hydrus:
I find it interesting that they use 52 as an analog season. There were not that many storms that year, but are predicting 18.

If they give several analog years, it is just evidence that the analogs don't mean that much. I'll bet that if you look closely, there are significant differences among all those analogs.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
I think we might make it through the list this hurricane season.
That would be scary in a lot of ways.
Quoting bappit:

If they give several analog years, it is just evidence that the analogs don't mean that much. I'll bet that if you look closely, there are significant differences among all those analogs.
I looked closely and there are significant differences...:)
Quoting dabirds:
Top of WU page tells me Spfld, IL only mid 50s? Their paper's site says 69, like the 70 for StL & me, should be in same (sticky/soupy) airmass as us. Guess someones PWS on the fritz.

Looking at a couple of maps, sure is a bend to the E in the front line just above me, does this increase/decrease our severe wthr chances?


No observation is correct. There has been a strong North wind this morning as outflow boundary pushed through. Flow from the south should overtake that boundary and push it back to the North today as low pressure pushes Northeast.



Lincoln NWS
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

12Z TAF FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL PROVE TO BE RATHER
COMPLICATED. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND WOULD ONLY RESULT IN
A BRIEF REDUCTION BELOW VFR AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPORARILY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AS WELL AS IFR CIGS. SO FAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS ONLY
IMPACTED KPIA...BUT KBMI AND KSPI APPEAR LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED
SHORTLY. ONCE THE BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS. SHOWER/STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS. WIND DIRECTION MAY BE RATHER VARIABLE TODAY DUE TO THE
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT KSPI/KDEC/KCMI AND EASTERLY FLOW AT KPIA/KBMI WILL TREND
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.


Severe weather will be highly dependent upon afternoon destabilization as always. There is a very strong Northward component to the storm vectors right now that are pushing across Missouri. Main low pressure is still hanging back in Southwest Missouri, the weaker low near Quincy is what has help push the boundary to the east and south a bit, but the low to it's southwest should become the dominate force and its pushing Northeast, so it should drag that boundary to the north as it does so.I would only expect the clearing to the south and southwest of you to overtake us as the day progresses.

Also that boundary could serve as a focus for a higher probability of tornadic development due increased helicities near the boundary.

Quoting hydrus:
That would be scary in a lot of ways.


I'm still looking forward to it.

I think we might get our first storm in early June or late May.
Well they do note that they are assuming there will be some weak/short-lived storms that could have been missed in the pre-satellite era...i mean, those tracks show 7 storms, all hurricanes, 4 of which are majors (if I'm reading the colors right). so I'd say that's not so far off from the numbers they're calling for.

Quoting hydrus:
I find it interesting that they use 52 as an analog season. There were not that many storms that year, but are predicting 18.
Quoting Thrawst:
Gonna be an active hurricane season I believe.
Too active. This could turn out bad for a lot of folks.
Starting to get some elevated convection in North Texas again, although surface temps are generally warm enough to avoid icing issues. Still though, some areas in the NW portion of the rain areas could be of the frozen variety.









conditions in the MDR are continuing to get better and I expect these numbers to increase in th June forecast. it looks like it is going to be a very active season.
Rapid City had 22 inches of snow in 24 hours between the 17th and the 18th April 1970.
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Well they do note that they are assuming there will be some weak/short-lived storms that could have been missed in the pre-satellite era...i mean, those tracks show 7 storms, all hurricanes, 4 of which are majors (if I'm reading the colors right). so I'd say that's not so far off from the numbers they're calling for.

Even if you double the number of storms listed you have 14, and they are calling for 18. The way they extrapolate data when determining analog years is complex, but even if some storms were missed ( and it is not likely at many were undetected due to high shipping traffic in those days ) That whatever number of storms occurred in 1952 was considerably less than 18..
CSU outlook
As an example we find that the probability of Florida being hit by a major (Cat 3-
4-5) hurricane this year is 34% which is well above the climatological average of 21%


Well, people of florida have a high chance this year seems to be
ILwthr - SJ-R site must be slow, just went back & shows 55 now.

Thought that bend might not be a good thing.

Nice little storm moving up IL River valley at moment.

We're a bit brighter now, humidity and dew pt up, pressure around 29.8". Probably not a good combination for later.
Some folks down here are debating whether or not to get their roofs replaced after the hail last week, now or in October. If you replace the roof and spend say $3,000-4,000 on a deductible, then a hurricane comes in August-September then now you have to spend another $3,000-4,000 deductible to replace it again.
If it aint that bad and no water can get in the house, I'd wait till the fall after hurricane season before putting down money on a new roof.
Nothing here yet...

Quoting stormchaser19:
CSU outlook
As an example we find that the probability of Florida being hit by a major (Cat 3-
4-5) hurricane this year is 34% which is well above the climatology average of 21%


Well, people of Florida have a high chance this year
seems to be

You just made JFV have an accident in his pants.
I think we may see an isolated storm or two in the southern Alabma/Missisipi panhandle region this afternoon.

Quoting aquak9:


no, we're not allowed to funny here anymore. No humor allowed.
Here's funny:

Quoting hydrus:
I find it interesting that they use 52 as an analog season. There were not that many storms that year, but are predicting 18.


The weighing of the analog scheme this year must be low:

Statistical Scheme = 15.6
Analog Scheme = 10.4
Adjusted Final = 18


"Table 8 shows our final adjusted early April forecast for the 2013 season which is
a combination of our statistical scheme, our analog scheme and qualitative adjustments
for other factors not explicitly contained in any of these schemes."

Must be that qualitative adjustment :)
Quoting AussieStorm:

You just made JFV have an accident in his pants.


"...holy s**t dude..."

Link

warning: language (don't watch if you are easily offended)
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Here's funny:



Dude- I get it. I really, really get it. But ya still got put down the LOLCats.
Quoting hydrus:
Even if you double the number of storms listed you have 14, and they are calling for 18. The way they extrapolate data when determining analog years is complex, but even if some storms were missed ( and it is not likely at many were undetected due to high shipping traffic in those days ) That whatever number of storms occurred in 1952 was considerably less than 18..

Dont forget we're in the active era.
eh...maybe. but they aren't calling for 18 hurricanes, they're calling for 18 named storms. even with shipping traffic, the ocean is a vast place, and it's not hard to miss a small/weak storm like a Helene, Kirk, Patty, Oscar, or Tony from last year. if you figure the 1952 year was 6 hurricanes, 3 majors (7 total named storms), i'd guess there were at least 14 qualifying storms, if not more. since the satellite era, with the exception of very low activity years, it seems like there are usually twice as many named storms as full on hurricanes in a given year - my assumption would be that you can extrapolate that back into pre-satellite years, but I'm sure someone out there can correct me and provide counter examples :)

Quoting hydrus:
Even if you double the number of storms listed you have 14, and they are calling for 18. The way they extrapolate data when determining analog years is complex, but even if some storms were missed ( and it is not likely at many were undetected due to high shipping traffic in those days ) That whatever number of storms occurred in 1952 was considerably less than 18..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting dabirds:
ILwthr - SJ-R site must be slow, just went back & shows 55 now.

Thought that bend might not be a good thing.

Nice little storm moving up IL River valley at moment.

We're a bit brighter now, humidity and dew pt up, pressure around 29.8". Probably not a good combination for later.




I may take the afternoon off and go chase :D

The Visible loop as me concerned as it looks to be clearly rather efficiently out ahead of the front. Temps should have no problem rising into mid to upper 70's, maybe a few 80's in all areas south of I-70 today.
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Well that was brief.
you were warned =p

"I'll have a new post late this morning on the latest hurricane season forecasts.

Jeff Masters"


Quoting 1900hurricane:

Well that was brief.
TC Victoria







TC Imelda







Goodnight all
Quoting RitaEvac:
If it aint that bad and no water can get in the house, I'd wait till the fall after hurricane season before putting down money on a new roof.
Good afternoon all. I hate to say this Rita, but you just put the mouth on yourself. You just tempted the Fates. I had a friend who had bought a home which needed the roof replaced. It was June. He asked my opinion. I said wait until after hurricane season. Sure enough, he was claiming on his windstorm to replace his damaged roof. But I appreciate your thinking it through. But doesn't you wind coverage have a higher deductible for windstorm than hail? And why do you think that you will need to replace the roof when a hurricane strikes, if it has been installed properly?
Quoting AussieStorm:


What direction is your camera facing?
Winter storm watch for
City of Toronto continued

Significant freezing rain and ice pellets likely Thursday into Friday.

A series of low pressure systems will give periods of rain to many regions into tonight. On Thursday, a stronger low will approach from the southwest and combine with a colder airmass from the north. As a result, rain is expected to change to freezing rain and ice pellets late tonight or Thursday morning. Periods of freezing rain and ice pellets are expected to persist Thursday night into Friday and be heavy at times. Areas from Georgian Bay through Eastern Ontario will see this wintery mix arrive Thursday night, thus the watch has been extended to include these regions.

Poor travel conditions are expected over the duration of this event. In particular, the Thursday morning commute may be challenging with icy conditions on untreated roads for areas from the Greater Toronto area westwards to Lake Huron. And it may be even more problematic for the evening rush hour. Of greater concern is the risk of widepsread power outages due to downed tree limbs and power lines due to significant ice accumulation combined with northeast winds gusting to 60 km/h. There is a risk that this could be a major ice storm for an appreciable swath of Southern Ontario. Mixed precipitation is expected to persist into Friday (especially for Eastern Ontario) followed by a gradual improvement.

There is still some uncertainty as to the track of the storm and the extent of the cold air Thursday. This will have an impact on whether the regions in the winter storm watch receive predominantly ice pellets or freezing rain. Environment Canada will monitor this situation closely and will issue warnings as needed as the evolution of the storm becomes more certain.


red rainfall warnings

yellow winter storm watch

Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A much cooler morning this morning, 46 degrees, it was 71 yesterday at this time. And along with that drop some good storms. We've had almost an inch and a half of rain since midnight so far. No recess for the kids today.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Belgium waffles, fruit in syrup, whipped cream, oatmeal with brown sugar, yogurt and fresh orange juice. Enjoy.