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Severe Weather and Mesoscale Boundaries

By: Lee Grenci 11:21 AM GMT on April 02, 2013

Featured wunderblogger Lee Grenci will be filling in for me this week while I'm on vacation. I'll be back to blogging on Monday.

- Jeff Masters


I often categorize cold fronts, warm fronts, stationary fronts, etc. as synoptic-scale features, but, when I do, I mean the along-front scale, which can extend a thousand kilometers or more. The cross-front scale, however, is often only 100 kilometers or less, rendering any circulation a mesoscale phenomenon. In my view (the definition of mesoscale is somewhat subjective), the mesoscale spans from 2 to 1000 kilometers, with the meso-gamma scale extending from 2 to 20 kilometers (a large tornado or the rotating updraft of a supercell thunderstorm), the meso-beta scale covering 20 to 200 kilometers (a relatively small mesoscale convective system), and the meso-alpha scale, spanning from 200 to 1000 kilometers (most tropical cyclones fall into this category).



My subjective subdivisions of the mesoscale (2-1000 kilometers). The photograph insets on the left are meant to provide readers with example mesoscale weather features that represent each subdivision. Courtesy of Penn State's online certificate program.

Seasoned forecasters who predict severe weather are always aware of synoptic-scale fronts and dry lines (a topic for another day) as boundaries between contrasting air masses than can initiate deep, moist convection, which is a more technical term for thunderstorms. By "initiate," I mean lifting air parcels to the level of free convection (LFC), the altitude at which parcels become warmer than their environment and accelerate upward in response to this temperature difference. In other words, air parcels are positively buoyant through a deep layer of the troposphere (between the LFC and the equilibrium level). For the record, the equilibrium level (EL) is the altitude where the temperature of the rising parcel once again equals the temperature of its environment. Technically speaking, upward-accelerating air parcels overshoot the equilibrium level because they can't just stop on a dime (I highly recommend this instructive flash animation, courtesy of UCAR and The Comet Program).


In addition to synoptic-scale fronts and boundaries as possible initiation sites for thunderstorms, forecasters must also identify much more subtle mesoscale boundaries that can also lift air parcels to the level of free convection and initiate deep, moist convection. When I say "mesoscale" here, I'm referring to the along-front dimension, so the contrasting air masses separated by the mesoscale boundary are relatively small compared to their synoptic-scale cousins. Examples of mesoscale boundaries include gust and sea-breeze fronts. A gust front is the leading edge of rain-cooled air associated with the splashdown of thunderstorm downdrafts, and a sea-breeze front is the leading edge of maritime air moving inland as a result of the uneven heating of land and coastal waters (another future blog topic for Lee). In more general terms, mesoscale boundaries typically form in response to the uneven heating of the earth's surface (sea-breeze fronts, for example) or in concert with a relatively large horizontal gradient in latent heating / latent cooling (gust fronts, for example).



The graphic for Mesoscale Convective Discussion #342 issued by the Storm Prediction Center at 2153Z on March 30, 2013 (4:53 P.M. CDT). Courtesy of SPC.

At 4:53 P.M. CDT on Saturday, March 30, 2013, the Storm Prediction Center issued Mesoscale Discussion #342 (see graphic above), identifying mesoscale boundaries over the panhandle of Texas and a portion of Oklahoma as pretty safe bets to initiate thunderstorms that had the potential to produce severe weather (purpose of mesoscale discussions). The dashed, brown lines on the SPC graphic for MD #342 indicated the mesoscale boundaries (full text for MD #342). By the way, "342" refers to the running count of mesoscale discussions for the year.

During the daytime hours, forecasters often identify mesoscale boundaries using high-resolution visible satellite imagery. For this case, I annotated this 2145Z visible image from GOES-13 in order to highlight portions of the two mesoscale boundaries. To get a better sense for why I used the word, "subtle" in the context of mesoscale boundaries, check out this unannotated version. Here's an annotated close-up of the 2145Z visible image showing portions of the mesoscale boundaries over the panhandle of Texas and portions of Oklahoma.



The 2145Z visible satellite image from GOES-13 on March 30, 2013. Can you find two mesoscale boundaries over the panhandle of Texas and portions of Oklahoma? Here's the answer. Courtesy of NOAA and Penn State.

About one hour later, deep, moist convection erupted along segments of the mesoscale boundaries (see the 2245Z visible image below). I circled the discrete thunderstorms in yellow. Farther south, you'll see more thunderstorms initiated by the dry line. I'll include the 21Z surface analysis so you can get a better sense for the position of the dry line around this time (late Saturday afternoon). Note how the storm anvils (photographs) spread toward the southeast in tandem with northwesterly upper-level winds (here's the GFS model analysis of 300-mb streamlines at 18Z on March 30; the standard height of 300 mb is 9000 meters, which is roughly 30,000 feet).



The 2245Z visible image from GOES-13 on March 30, 2013. The yellow circle encompasses thunderstorms that were initiated along two mesoscale boundaries over the Texas Panhandle and portions of Oklahoma.

As the warm season unfolds, I'll post blogs on mesoscale meteorology and forecasting. In the final analysis, "becoming one with the atmosphere" is the key philosophy for successfully predicting thunderstorms. The positions of synoptic-scale fronts and upper-level disturbances provide forecasters with the "big picture," but discovering subtle mesoscale boundaries can sometimes make a general thunderstorm forecast much more precise (with regard to location and timing).


Lee

Mesoscale Meteorology Mesoscale Forecasting

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The 18z GFS is stronger and better defined with next week's trough through Monday evening:



Quoting BahaHurican:
sa far so good... but looks like a potentially sleepless night for S Floridians.... not so much in Central FL ATM

I hope some rain has fallen over C FL to knock down those red flag warnings.
A funny little line trying to get going on the north side of the system. Moisture starved from the convection to the south I think.

1504. Gearsts
NAO going negative.
1505. VR46L
It would appear that GFS see another interruption to Floridas Dry Season...

The GFS is forecasting a return to "winter" behind next week's trough:



It's short-lived though.
18z GFS on the coming storm in the South Indian basin. It seems to be trending stronger with it, showing 965mb this run:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is forecasting a return to "winter" behind next week's trough:



It's short-lived though.
A Texas freeze in April you think?
1509. VR46L
wonder how this will look next week ...

Quoting Gearsts:
NAO going negative.


GFS Forecast Ensemble for NAO:



By the way, the Gulf has really warmed up the past few days.

Robert Brookens ‏@BarometerBob
The Barometer Bob Show at 8PM/7C. Severe Wx, Wx News, National Hurricane Conference. Watch & join us in Storm Chat at http://irc.barometerbob.net

The National Hurricane Conference was held in New Orleans, LA March 25 - 28, 2013.


Robert Brookens aka Barometer Bob (on right in picture) was one of those recipients.
Seen pictured with Max Mayfield, WPLG Miami, FL and Rick Knabb, Director NHC.
The award states:
Distinguished Service Award
Presented to: Robert Brookens
"For your hard work and dedication in providing
weather-related information to the public through your long-running Barometer Bob Show."

So come listen and interact in storm chat. Link

I'm there now.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
A Texas freeze in April you think?

Unlikely, but possible. The GFS indicates lows in the upper 30s for much of north Texas on the 11th and 12th.
Squall line just poofed before moving into dade.
1515. VR46L
Lots of energy about

1516. Gearsts
Quoting nofailsafe:


GFS Forecast Ensemble for NAO:



By the way, the Gulf has really warmed up the past few days.

about time!
1517. VR46L
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Lots of Convection popping up .. Healthy looking blob on the Yucatan
1518. VR46L
Looks like the mid Atlantic is also getting some fun

Well, it's starting to look like the models are wrong yet again, the next MCS is developing, but is organizing even further south. I have been suspicious about a squall line in Tampa Bay ever since this morning. At this point, I'm going to call it a no show. low level flow is indeed being cutoff from advancing north thanks to the first MCS. This happens fairly often in the gulf, models never seem to pick up on it, and forecasters don't mention this problem much either.
Some rain arriving to PR on Friday.The NWS says is a low level easterly weak perturbation. If this was July,August it would be a wave?

Pretty bullish wording for a situation many days out..
Quoting Jackson, MS NWS:

BY TUES/WED SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS ARE PROGGED TO BE
65-70 DEGREES AS LOW-LVL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BACKS IN RESPONSE TO
SFC LOW MIGRATING ACROSS OK TO AR. NUMEROUS PARAMETERS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BOTH TUES/WED. ATTM...
ARKLATEX AND WESTERN AREAS OF ARKLAMISS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS TUES GIVEN PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG (OF
WHICH NEARLY 900 J/KG ARE WITHIN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER) WITHIN 35-40
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND -6C SHOWALTERS WITH 150-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
VALUES. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION UPSTREAM. ONE MORE
FAIL-SAFE WOULD BE EML AND CAPPING INVERSION ON ITS ROLE OF
CONVECTION LOCATION. WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE PRIMARY DAY FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION AS THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE ACROSS AR WHILE
DEEPENING TO NEAR 1000MB. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK
IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE
EC TRENDED NORTH AND HAD LOWER SFC PRESSURE FROM ITS 12Z
COUNTERPART, LEADING MORE VALUE TO THE 00Z GFS OUTPUT. FEEL THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION GIVEN ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS LIKELY VS THE
SLIGHTLY LAGGING AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED EC. REGARDLESS OF
SOLUTION, DECENT AGREEMENT IS APPARENT IN OVERALL MASS FIELDS. WILL
ADD MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO/GRAPHICS BUT KEEP IT GENERAL
FOR NOW. /ALLEN/
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unlikely, but possible. The GFS indicates lows in the upper 30s for much of north Texas on the 11th and 12th.

If you want to see something really unlikely, check out this from the 00Z NAVGEM.

It has been another miserable day in terms of weather.Cloudy and windy..I'm ready for sunshine and 70's.My allergies have been terrible as of late.So bad that I haven't been able to smell or taste anything.Really sucks when everything taste like paper.
1900hurricane I don't know enough to interpret those maps very well. What do they show that is so unusual?
It looks as if the much-touted "Round Two" is going to be mainly a S. FL thing, just as Round One was.

I see a few piddly little showers trying to form over the NE Gulf but they are being moisture starved by all that big blob 100 or 200 miles further to the south. So I guess all the local mets who were promising us over and over again this afternoon and evening that "it's not over yet" were mistaken, except for SW FL and points to the east, but they sounded as if they were talking about all of Central Florida instead, when they were saying that. Even when they were saying that a couple of hours ago and earlier, the radar clearly showed most of the active convection forming well to the south.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Well, it's starting to look like the models are wrong yet again, the next MCS is developing, but is organizing even further south. I have been suspicious about a squall line in Tampa Bay ever since this morning. At this point, I'm going to call it a no show. low level flow is indeed being cutoff from advancing north thanks to the first MCS. This happens fairly often in the gulf, models never seem to pick up on it, and forecasters don't mention this problem much either.


I think I should more carefully review the earlier posts before I write something, Jedkins. I often seem to inadvertently echo your sentiments/comments. lol
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
1900hurricane I don't know enough to interpret those maps very well. What do they show that is so unusual?

Check out where both the 850 mb 0*C isotherm and the 540 dam 1000-500 mb thickness in relation to the precipitation over Texas. With both of those lines deep into the state and a great deal of precipitation falling behind them, that would be a huge amount of snow for everyone NW of a line from Midland to Dallas. Unusual for the dead of winter, let alone the middle of April!

For the record, I have no expectations of this forecast coming even close to verifying.
It is possible we could be flirting with 80's next week.Thank goodness.Yeah if people want to talk about another part of the country besides Florida I'm all ears.
Quoting Jedkins01:
31 75 POMPANO BEACH BROWARD FL 2623 8012 MESONET REPORTED 58 MPH SUSTAINED WIND WITH 75 MPH WIND GUSTS AT NORTH BROWARD MEDICAL CENTER. (MFL)


I live approximately 4 miles from this location, and I can confirm the winds were that strong!

We had at least a half dozen of those 75 mph wind gusts, and got nearly 2 inches of rain with that cell.
Blinding sheets of sideways blowing rain lol

Those winds were fierce for an April thunderstorm, definitely felt like a tropical storm. And the cloud deck was green for the first few mintues. I was surprised we had no hail with that storm.

Us here in North Broward are keeping an eye to the sky for Round 2 later tonight!
Evening all, round three added in mix for tomorrow afternoon.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 042358
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
758 PM EDT THU APR 4 2013

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS TRENDED DOWN THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD
THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 06Z THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHERE A THIRD
ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRIER
AIR AND NW WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FRIDAY
EVENING PERIOD.
1531. Gearsts
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Some rain arriving to PR on Friday.The NWS says is a low level easterly weak perturbation. If this was July,August it would be a wave?

Is a ghost from the past!
Quoting washingtonian115:
It has been another miserable day in terms of weather.Cloudy and windy..I'm ready for sunshine and 70's.My allergies have been terrible as of late.So bad that I haven't been able to smell or taste anything.Really sucks when everything taste like paper.

Luckily the warm weather and allergies haven't came to SE MI yet. That means that allergy season hasn't got going much over here. Also, I've been doing allergy shots for 2 years now and they really help. Hope you feel better soon.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Evening all, round three added in mix for tomorrow afternoon.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 042358
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
758 PM EDT THU APR 4 2013

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS TRENDED DOWN THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD
THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 06Z THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHERE A THIRD
ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRIER
AIR AND NW WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FRIDAY
EVENING PERIOD.


Lets hope it's not like the first round. Oh wait what first round! Went from tracking multiple strong cells on radarscope to nada in a span of a few min. Not a drop in dade at least over my area.
Convection now approaching the coast.





Pretty nasty up here in Palm Beach today Adrian. The MCS looks to be further south so maybe you'll catch this round.
Quoting DeerfieldBeachGuy:


I live approximately 4 miles from this location, and I can confirm the winds were that strong!

We had at least a half dozen of those 75 mph wind gusts, and got nearly 2 inches of rain with that cell.
Blinding sheets of sideways blowing rain lol

Those winds were fierce for an April thunderstorm, definitely felt like a tropical storm. And the cloud deck was green for the first few mintues. I was surprised we had no hail with that storm.

Us here in North Broward are keeping an eye to the sky for Round 2 later tonight!
I saw the green sky too! Dark and green; very ominous looking. Storms were very much like what I have seen here in tropical storms. The streets in east Deerfield were flooding right around six pm. Very unusual for April. Guess we have two more rounds coming?
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Check out where both the 850 mb 0*C isotherm and the 540 dam 1000-500 mb thickness in relation to the precipitation over Texas. With both of those lines deep into the state and a great deal of precipitation falling behind them, that would be a huge amount of snow for everyone NW of a line from Midland to Dallas. Unusual for the dead of winter, let alone the middle of April!

For the record, I have no expectations of this forecast coming even close to verifying.


I looked around. Midland has had snow over an inch in April twice. Dallas/Fort Worth never has had accumulating snow in April.
OK, this is only related sidways, but
Speaking of hurricane season, I didn't know FL had a sinkhole season too...

http://www.jaxobserver.com/2013/03/25/new-sinkhol e-opens-in-seffner-florida-sinkhole-season-in-full -swing/

New Sinkhole Opens in Seffner, Florida ‘Sinkhole Season’ in Full Swing
Posted by Darren Halas • March 25, 2013 •

Another sinkhole has opened up in Florida, which is really no surprise with the exception, this one is located in Seffner; making it the third sinkhole in the last month located there.

An 8-foot-wide, 10-foot-deep hole was discovered between two houses in Seffner, Florida over the weekend.

Hillsborough County Fire Rescue and code enforcement officials set up a perimeter between 1425 and 1427 Lake Shore Ranch Drive in Seffner, less than two miles from where resident Jeff Bush was swallowed and killed when a sinkhole opened up under his bed Feb. 28.
Abiliene's heaviest snowfall on record was April 5, 1996. That must have been a surprise!
Hey, DC115... sorry 2 hear about the allergies... the cherry trees look to be in full bloom, which I am sure is not helping... would rain make it better or worse?
1542. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...LATE TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE OR LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE.
STORM MOTION LATER TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY FASTER...TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. A THREAT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TONIGHT. BE
PREPARED TO MOVE TO A SAFE LOCATION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR
COMMUNITY.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LIGHTNING STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AND CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THEY MOVE OVER INLAND LAKES...THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY AND ENTER THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS ON INLAND LAKES...THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Luckily the warm weather and allergies haven't came to SE MI yet. That means that allergy season hasn't got going much over here. Also, I've been doing allergy shots for 2 years now and they really help. Hope you feel better soon.
I've been thinking about doing allergy shots for some time now.Bloom season is slow this year unlike last year where trees were already bloomed.My allergies weren't as bad when the trees bloomed fast.This year miserable.Just like 2010.Not to mention the moisture content in the soil has also helped.
1544. LargoFl
remember folks,its too early yet,most were saying midnight and thru the over night hours into the morning for the bad storms..GFS had the front still out in the gulf early friday morning..me for one am not letting my guard down tonight.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, DC115... sorry 2 hear about the allergies... the cherry trees look to be in full bloom, which I am sure is not helping... would rain make it better or worse?
Rain usually helps.But if the sun comes out immediately after it rains it only gets worse.
1546. LargoFl
GFS for Friday morning..look where the cold front line is..
1547. LargoFl
RAP model has the squall line in the gulf at 4am also...
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Check out where both the 850 mb 0*C isotherm and the 540 dam 1000-500 mb thickness in relation to the precipitation over Texas. With both of those lines deep into the state and a great deal of precipitation falling behind them, that would be a huge amount of snow for everyone NW of a line from Midland to Dallas. Unusual for the dead of winter, let alone the middle of April!

For the record, I have no expectations of this forecast coming even close to verifying.


Had some snow way down here in 2007.


April 7, 2007
A winter storm affected the region well into the month of April, a very unusual time of year for winter precipitation across this part of the country. Despite temperatures above freezing, nearly all locations across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana reported sleet. A mixture of snow and sleet fell across interior Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana, where some light accumulations occurred and prompted Winter Weather Advisories. This was the first winter precipitation observed in the month of April in 70 years.
1549. LargoFl
Nam has it also in the gulf around 4 am..slowed down??..
Quoting avthunder:
I saw the green sky too! Dark and green; very ominous looking. Storms were very much like what I have seen here in tropical storms. The streets in east Deerfield were flooding right around six pm. Very unusual for April. Guess we have two more rounds coming?


Hey neighbor :D

Yeah, we haven't had a good soaking rain like that in months. The streets were flooded in my neck of the woods as well. I was at the Publix on Sample and Federal picking up groceries when the storm rolled in. As I was leaving, there must have been 4-6 inches of water in the parking lot. Must have been clogged storm drains as the water was piling up fast. By the time I got home, the parking lot of our condo was just as bad. Very unusual indeed!

Yeah looks like we may catch the northern portion of this next MCS out in the eastern Gulf. Not sure if the dynamics exist in the atmosphere to support the kind of storm we had earlier, but it will be interesting weather-wathcing nonetheless.
1551. LargoFl

.NOW...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS BROWARD AND NORTHERN MIAMI DADE
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THE ACTIVITY WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER
THE BROWARD AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI, INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY,
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THAT SECOND WAVE OF STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS.

$$
I don't mean to jump the gun...talking so much about next week's outbreak is far enough as is...

but...more action!



The drought is going to take a huge hit over the next few weeks.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I've been thinking about doing allergy shots for some time now.Bloom season is slow this year unlike last year where trees were already bloomed.My allergies weren't as bad when the trees bloomed fast.This year miserable.Just like 2010.Not to mention the moisture content in the soil has also helped.

They definitely help and I recommend them to anybody with allergies.

Even though snow/ice storms in southern Michigan are more common than the south, it still isn't super common. I remember having snow on my first communion and on Easter. Also, I sorta remember this ice storm from ten years ago.

From NWS Detroit:
On April 4, 2003, a severe two-day ice storm ended over southeast Michigan. The storm was responsible for up to an inch of accumulated ice in Oakland County, which caused 500,000 people to be without power and $50 million in damage!
1554. LargoFl

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE OR LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE.
STORM MOTION LATER TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY FASTER...TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. A THREAT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TONIGHT. BE
PREPARED TO MOVE TO A SAFE LOCATION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR
COMMUNITY.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Had some snow way down here in 2007.


April 7, 2007
A winter storm affected the region well into the month of April, a very unusual time of year for winter precipitation across this part of the country. Despite temperatures above freezing, nearly all locations across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana reported sleet. A mixture of snow and sleet fell across interior Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana, where some light accumulations occurred and prompted Winter Weather Advisories. This was the first winter precipitation observed in the month of April in 70 years.

Yup, that was Easter that year. I was visiting New York then.
1556. bappit
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't mean to jump the gun...talking so much about next week's outbreak is far enough as is...

but...more action!



The drought is going to take a huge hit over the next few weeks.

Sure hope so.
1557. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't mean to jump the gun...talking so much about next week's outbreak is far enough as is...

but...more action!



The drought is going to take a huge hit over the next few weeks.
yes NO NWS is hinting at that...........
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE THREATS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
Quoting avthunder:
I saw the green sky too! Dark and green; very ominous looking. Storms were very much like what I have seen here in tropical storms. The streets in east Deerfield were flooding right around six pm. Very unusual for April. Guess we have two more rounds coming?


Hey neighbor :D

Yeah, we haven't had a good soaking rain like that in months. The streets were flooded in my neck of the woods as well. I was at the Publix on Sample and Federal picking up groceries when the storm rolled in. As I was leaving, there must have been 4-6 inches of water in the parking lot. Must have been clogged storm drains as the water was piling up fast. By the time I got home, the parking lot of our condo was just as bad. Very unusual indeed!

Yeah looks like we may catch the northern portion of this next MCS out in the eastern Gulf. Not sure if the dynamics exist in the atmosphere to support the kind of storm we had earlier, but it will be interesting weather-wathcing nonetheless.
1559. LargoFl
here is what my local met says............nother round of showers and storms is expected to come through the area overnight into early Friday morning, according to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Brian McClure.

"Some of the storms will likely be strong or severe so you will want to stay tuned for possible severe weather updates overnight," said McClure.

A batch of moisture combined with a disturbance in the atmosphere will move in from the Gulf early Friday morning resulting in the showers and storms. That will then rotate off to the east quickly after sunrise, resulting in drying conditions Friday afternoon and clearing skies. another round of showers and storms is expected to come through the area overnight into early Friday morning, according to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Brian McClure.

"Some of the storms will likely be strong or severe so you will want to stay tuned for possible severe weather updates overnight," said McClure
1560. LargoFl
Rainfall totals through 5 p.m.
Parts of the Bay area have seen heavy rains as a result of the thunderstorms.

Manatee County
Holmes Beach: 4.66
Bradenton: 3.88
Sarasota/Bradenton airport: 2.81
Lake Manatee State Park: 2.17
Lakewood Ranch: 2.29
Ellenton 2.93
East Bradenton 2.42
Pinellas County

St. Petersburg Albert Whitted 1.04
St. Petersburg Science Ctr. 0.78
Seminole 0.76
Largo 0.60
Dunedin 0.48
St. Pete/Clearwater Airport 0.65
Tarpon Springs 0.41
Clearwater Beach 0.39
Polk County

Bartow 1.39
Davenport 0.66
Lakeland 0.56
Lakeland Highlands 0.54
Winter Haven 0.42
Hillsborough County

USF 0.71
Downtown Tampa 0.68
New Tampa 0.67
Tampa Int’l Airport 0.59
Odessa 0.54
Westchase 0.52
Brandon 0.51
Plant City 0.51
Lutz 0.48
Hernando

Brooksville 0.31
Weeki Wachee 0.24
Citrus

Sugarmill Wood 0.31
Crystal River 0.27
Inverness 0.14
Pasco

Land O' Lakes 0.61
Port Richey 0.58
New Port Richey 0.31
There is one severe thunderstorm in the country right now, right where one would suspect it to be... NE Oregon, lol:

Quoting DeerfieldBeachGuy:


Hey neighbor :D

Yeah, we haven't had a good soaking rain like that in months. The streets were flooded in my neck of the woods as well. I was at the Publix on Sample and Federal picking up groceries when the storm rolled in. As I was leaving, there must have been 4-6 inches of water in the parking lot. Must have been clogged storm drains as the water was piling up fast. By the time I got home, the parking lot of our condo was just as bad. Very unusual indeed!

Yeah looks like we may catch the northern portion of this next MCS out in the eastern Gulf. Not sure if the dynamics exist in the atmosphere to support the kind of storm we had earlier, but it will be interesting weather-wathcing nonetheless.
Hey neighbor. :)
Let's hope the next round is milder. Came home to three scared dogs. Just east of Federal, south of 10th. The power had gone out; pool overflowing. Still, we are lucky we don't get the strong tornados down here..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There is one severe thunderstorm in the country right now, right where one would suspect it to be... NE Oregon, lol:

And now there is another one where you would think one would be...N California.
Quoting wxchaser97:
And now there is another one where you would think one would be...N California.

That one's rotating a little too, we'll have to see if it strengthens further.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That one's rotating a little too, we'll have to see if it strengthens further.

Didn't even realize it was, but it is rotating. Who knows, maybe it could produce a tornado or get a warning in a little while.


Also, the Oregon storm got another t-storm warning for wind gusts in excess of 60mph. Going off base velocity, it does look like it has damaging winds.
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Well there it is, a tornado warning and a spotted funnel cloud. I'm not surprised as the rotation was getting better defined. All of this while Twister is on ACE Family.

WFUS56 KSTO 050151
TORSTO
CAC103-050215-
/O.NEW.KSTO.TO.W.0002.130405T0151Z-130405T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
651 PM PDT THU APR 4 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL TEHAMA COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 715 PM PDT

* AT 648 PM PDT...LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER CENTRAL
TEHAMA COUNTY...OR NEAR RED BLUFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY SOUTH OF RED BLUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 12212 4012 12205 4008 12222 4012 12226
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 236DEG 13KT 4011 12220

$$

DVC




There's an ongoing tornado near Red Bluff in California.

Another fairly impressive MCS moving into FL South of SR-50. Best Chance of heavy rain looks to be south of SR-70 and possibly as far south as SR-80 and south. (Sarasota to Fort Pierce/Fort Myers/Palm Beach and south) With the front possibly slowing down, areas south of SR-70 could see 1-2 inches of storm total accumilations, I wouldn't rule out some higher QPF's up to 5 inches if some parts of MCS train over same area like we had over palm beaches and N half of Gold Coast today. The best severe threat I think in SEFL because of the possibility of daytime heating and breaks in the cloud

We need it, we are over 3.5 inches in the hole this year and there was a 20000 acre brushfire over the 'glades. I am also happy we aren't getting the rain over a 2 hour period like summer but nearly a 24 hour period.

All of that being said, I really hope people do have their NOAA weather radio on deck even though they may not need it. I have already had my heart broken once this week with the wrong way quad fatality I-75 crash at MD/Broward Line, don't do it again!
Peace,
FM
1549. LargoFl 12:41 AM GMT on April 05, 2013

This overnight activity is more closely related to the trough however, it's still an independent MCS. The actual front and directly related squall line will not move through until tomorrow afternoon.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 042358
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
758 PM EDT THU APR 4 2013

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS TRENDED DOWN THIS EVENING...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD
THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 06Z THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHERE A THIRD
ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRIER
AIR AND NW WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FRIDAY
EVENING PERIOD.

1572. bappit
Unseasonably cool behind this front. From Houston-Galveston NWS:

THE HIGH TEMP AT COLLEGE STATION WAS ONLY 53 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS A NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 56 DEGREES ESTABLISHED IN 1920. THE CITY OF HOUSTON TIED ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY. THE HIGH TODAY AT IAH WAS 56 DEGREES AND TIES THE RECORD OF 56 SET BACK IN 1949. THE LAST TIME HOUSTON REACHED 56 DEGREES FOR A HIGH TEMP IN APRIL WAS APRIL 8TH 2007. HOBBY AIRPORT MISSED ITS RECORD BY ONE DEGREE. THE HIGH AT HOBBY WAS 58 DEGREES AND THE RECORD WAS 57 IN 1949. GALVESTON HAD A HIGH OF 62 DEGREES TODAY (NO RECORD) AND ITS RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR THE 4TH WAS 58 DEGREES IN 1949.
SPC AC 050052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT THU APR 04 2013

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH FL...

...FL...

LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST A WELL ORGANIZED MCS IS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ERN GULF BASIN AND LEADING EDGE OF THIS
COMPLEX WILL SOON APPROACH THE SWRN FL PENINSULA. WHILE EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS OVERTURNED INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA
AIRMASS REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING MCS. 00Z
SOUNDING AT MFL EXHIBITS WEAK BUOYANCY BUT 1700 J/KG OF MUCAPE
EXISTS AT KEY. FAVORABLE RECOVERY MAY BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA.
FARTHER NORTH...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RENEWED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY IT APPEARS 5
PERCENT PROBS SHOULD SUFFICE.
Aussie,

I'm glad he posted your video on the show tonight!

Great fun!

Lindy
Random CA/OR storms....
And a tornado in California... I thought they were supposed to be in Florida today :p
Video of the Northern Cal tornado. Awwww come on Aussie!

Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Aussie,

I'm glad he posted your video on the show tonight!

Great fun!

Lindy

Yeah, I'm happy also. I'm making 1 right now.

What I found interesting as the different directions the clouds moved.... wouldn't normally see that unless it was via time-lapse or wasted a whole day cloud watching.
2 videos of the same thing? Only one now..
Quoting wxchaser97:
Video of the Northern Cal tornado.



How silly is the comment... Don't they come in two's... Like what the.... where she learn that from.
1581. geepy86
Quoting AussieStorm:


How silly is the comment... Don't they come in two's... Like what the.... where she learn that from.

twc....or noah?
Looks like more of the same is coming for west central Florida, similar to what we've been experiencing all day already. Light to moderate rain with isolated lightning.

This seems to be a far cry (so far) from what has been expected. Do any of you local forecasters still think anything else is forming upstream from this MCS? Cuz it looks kind of boring...
Quoting wxchaser97:
Video of the Northern Cal tornado. Awwww come on Aussie!


Beat ya by that |...| much.
LOL
Should see new warnings popping up soon. You can see the Jet entering the picture from the Bay Of Campeche.

Hi Lindy. Here is the update from the San Juan NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1025 PM AST THU APR 4 2013

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...FORECAST ON
TRACK. PASSING SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...USVI AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS A LOW LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL
BRING PASSING SHRA ACROSS LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...TNCM...TKPK
AND TISX. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDS IS PSBL NEAR SHRA. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PR AND REMAINING
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE USVI.
ELSEWHERE...LLVL WINDS BLW FL050 WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...BOUY DATA CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SEAS BELOW 6 FEET.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
Quoting AussieStorm:

I hope some rain has fallen over C FL to knock down those red flag warnings.

we didn't get much in orlando or daytona area today.
maybe we'll see some rain in the wee hours of the morning tonight.
but so far everything significant is staying south of here.
Quoting AussieStorm:


How silly is the comment... Don't they come in two's... Like what the.... where she learn that from.

I have no clue but it certainly is not correct.
RE 1585 Tropics:

Thanks for the update!

Looks like we won't be fishing off the drop this week but that it will be better closer to the island. Oh, well.

Lindy

5.4 M GUERRERO, MEXICO
Today was a bust for Florida considering what it looked like it could've been. Low pressure and associated energy tracked a little bit farther south than expected.

The Keys may endure some rough weather in a few hours, but the rest of Florida looks to be in for just solid rain.
Quoting stormchaser19:


50 miles NW of Acapulco...


thanks!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today was a bust for Florida considering what it looked like it could've been. Low pressure and associated energy tracked a little bit farther south than expected.

The Keys may endure some rough weather in a few hours, but the rest of Florida looks to be in for just solid rain.


Totally agree, especially for Tampa Bay. I read the 4:00 discussion from Ruskin and they really blew the forecast. It happens. Really getting some beneficial rains for Manatee and Sarasota counties.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Totally agree, especially for Tampa Bay. I read the 4:00 discussion from Ruskin and they really blew the forecast. It happens. Really getting some beneficial rains for Manatee and Sarasota counties.
Really glad it wasn't blown the other way...
Link
For those of you who haven't seen
For those who may be interested, here is a link to another news article about the deadly airplane accident that caused the deaths of three of my relatives in Mayaguana, Bahamas early this morning.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/index.php?option =com_content&view=article&id=38196&Itemid=27
Quoting BahaHurican:
For those who may be interested, here is a link to another news article about the deadly airplane accident that caused the deaths of three of my relatives in Mayaguana, Bahamas early this morning.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/index.php?option =com_content&view=article&id=38196&Ite mid=27


Baha: Such a tragedy. My thoughts and prayers to you and those around you.

Lindy
Quoting FLWaterFront:
It looks as if the much-touted "Round Two" is going to be mainly a S. FL thing, just as Round One was.

I see a few piddly little showers trying to form over the NE Gulf but they are being moisture starved by all that big blob 100 or 200 miles further to the south. So I guess all the local mets who were promising us over and over again this afternoon and evening that "it's not over yet" were mistaken, except for SW FL and points to the east, but they sounded as if they were talking about all of Central Florida instead, when they were saying that. Even when they were saying that a couple of hours ago and earlier, the radar clearly showed most of the active convection forming well to the south.



I honestly felt this was going to happen this morning, I should have boldly predicted this was going to be a south Florida only event. I did mention that I was starting to wonder if Tampa might miss it all together, but I didn't make it my official forecast. I guess I too was feeling the pressure not to go against model agreement like the other forecasters.

However, by last night I noticed all the models were not analyzing things properly and were already way off compared to how things were actually evolving.
Next time when I see something like this coming I should just boldly forecast it rather than just mention its potential.
Quoting BahaHurican:
For those who may be interested, here is a link to another news article about the deadly airplane accident that caused the deaths of three of my relatives in Mayaguana, Bahamas early this morning.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/index.php?option =com_content&view=article&id=38196&Ite mid=27


Baha, I shall pray for your family and offer my condolences to you in respect to this horrific accident.
Snow continues for the Appalachians high terrains

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Totally agree, especially for Tampa Bay. I read the 4:00 discussion from Ruskin and they really blew the forecast. It happens. Really getting some beneficial rains for Manatee and Sarasota counties.
Ruskin is still holding onto the idea that an additional area of convection will develop ahead of the actual cold front and may feature severe weather.

I don't doubt this can happen due to the repeated MCS's we've seen throughout the past 48 hours, but the cold front will unlikely be as strong as expected if current forecast accuracy trends continue lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
For those who may be interested, here is a link to another news article about the deadly airplane accident that caused the deaths of three of my relatives in Mayaguana, Bahamas early this morning.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/index.php?option =com_content&view=article&id=38196&Ite mid=27


My condolenses to you.
1595. BahaHurican 3:10 AM GMT on April 05, 2013

Thoughts and prayers to you and your family Baha. Sorry to see lives were taken to make it happen but it seems like your government is stepping up to not let this happen again. Tough one to take.
Baha

Very sad to hear about the tragic accident at Mayaguana.
Condolenses to you, your family, and all involved.
Quoting BahaHurican:
For those who may be interested, here is a link to another news article about the deadly airplane accident that caused the deaths of three of my relatives in Mayaguana, Bahamas early this morning.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/index.php?option =com_content&view=article&id=38196&Ite mid=27


What an awful accident .. sorry for your loss !!
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Link
For those of you who haven't seen
Levi is sounding a lot smoother than he did when he started... a good presentation so far.

1606. BtnTx
Quoting BahaHurican:
For those who may be interested, here is a link to another news article about the deadly airplane accident that caused the deaths of three of my relatives in Mayaguana, Bahamas early this morning.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/index.php?option =com_content&view=article&id=38196&Itemid=27
I am very sorry to hear about your relatives and send my sincere blessings in this time of mourning
For what it's worth the TB guys weren't off by too much.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Levi is sounding a lot smoother than he did when he started... a good presentation so far.


Sure is :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today was a bust for Florida considering what it looked like it could've been. Low pressure and associated energy tracked a little bit farther south than expected.

The Keys may endure some rough weather in a few hours, but the rest of Florida looks to be in for just solid rain.


I thought the upper level energy was too far to the northwest for Florida to have a widespread severe weather event.

At the same time I did not expect the main cluster of thunderstorms to head ESE across the southern half of Florida. So I'm no weathermaster.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
1595. BahaHurican 3:10 AM GMT on April 05, 2013

Thoughts and prayers to you and your family Baha. Sorry to see lives were taken to make it happen but it seems like your government is stepping up to not let this happen again. Tough one to take.
Thanks for the condolences. We're still trying to make sense of it... and very sorry things got put on the back burner as long as they did. :o/
BahaHurrican my condolences to you for the death of your relatives in the airplane crash.
Every time I see how well Levi has things together I am so proud of him... really makes me glad to be a part of this place. I'm still laughing to myself about the thought of him being the only NHC long distance commuting forecaster because he won't be able to survive the heat / humidity that is Miami-Dade... lol
My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family Baha.

Looks like I'm in for a wet and even stormy pattern next week. Lots of rain should fall starting this weekend. There won't be any worry of dryness/drought in my area.

Good night everyone.
Quoting BahaHurican:
For those who may be interested, here is a link to another news article about the deadly airplane accident that caused the deaths of three of my relatives in Mayaguana, Bahamas early this morning.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/index.php?option =com_content&view=article&id=38196&Ite mid=27


Sorry for your loss of your relatives in a tragic accident, Baha. My prayers and condolences to you and your family.
lightning flashing in the distance. the rumble of thunder getting closer. spring has sprung here in naples fl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today was a bust for Florida considering what it looked like it could've been. Low pressure and associated energy tracked a little bit farther south than expected.

The Keys may endure some rough weather in a few hours, but the rest of Florida looks to be in for just solid rain.


It sure was bust of a forecast. This is a good argument for why the SPC often is conservative with severe forecasts in Florida. Weather in Florida is often difficult to predict. If it had been the other way around and there was widespread warnings and damage reports, it might have been east to jump on them for not issuing a moderate risk. However, I've seen this happen before. Likewise I've seen major severe events develop out of what don't look like much by the models.

Forecasting weather down here can be hard, we lie between the tropical and temperate zones, which I think is part of the reason for the trickiness.


I mentioned earlier that I've observed this happen a number of times before. I've noticed that older MCS's in the gulf tend to "steal" the low level flow and cut it off. It doesn't always happen, but it does from time to time, and it is never anticipated by the models or given much attention to the forecast, the result often means drastic forecast error. With that being said, I think some more research should be done on frontal systems and MCS's in the gulf and how they behave and interact there compared to the over land.
Quoting Jedkins01:


It sure was bust of a forecast. This is a good argument for why the SPC often is conservative with severe forecasts in Florida. Weather in Florida is often difficult to predict. If it had been the other way around and there was widespread warnings and damage reports, it might have been east to jump on them for not issuing a moderate risk. However, I've seen this happen before. Likewise I've seen major severe events develop out of what don't look like much by the models.

Forecasting weather down here can be hard, we lie between the tropical and temperate zones, which I think is part of the reason for the trickiness.
quite often in winter and spring you see a line coming from a cold front and think "finally some needed rain" theres no way its not going to rain hard. Then just as the line approaches it develops a break and you get no rain or very little.then after it passes you see the break close back in.
1618. SLU
Quoting BahaHurican:
For those who may be interested, here is a link to another news article about the deadly airplane accident that caused the deaths of three of my relatives in Mayaguana, Bahamas early this morning.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/index.php?option =com_content&view=article&id=38196&Ite mid=27


All the best man. take care
"How lowwwww can you goooo", lol. Heads up Cuba.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CDT THU APR 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050411Z - 050545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH FL TONIGHT AS A LINE APPROACHES THE FL WEST COAST OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF THE LINE CAN BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ABOUT 75
STATUTE MILES SSW OF FT MEYERS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND
INTO THE EVERGLADES OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE STORMS OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA IS VERY MOIST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F WITH RESULTANT MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE
500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHERE
850 MB WIND SPEED ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY THE WSR-88D VWP AT MIAMI WHICH ALSO SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
HELP ORGANIZE THE LINE. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES INLAND AFTER 05Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/05/2013
Quoting Jedkins01:


It sure was bust of a forecast. This is a good argument for why the SPC often is conservative with severe forecasts in Florida. Weather in Florida is often difficult to predict. If it had been the other way around and there was widespread warnings and damage reports, it might have been east to jump on them for not issuing a moderate risk. However, I've seen this happen before. Likewise I've seen major severe events develop out of what don't look like much by the models.

Forecasting weather down here can be hard, we lie between the tropical and temperate zones, which I think is part of the reason for the trickiness.


Exactly. On the other hand, there are events here (rarely, most often it is not nearly as bad as expected) like the Sunday before last, where the airport recorded winds of 56 gusting to 86 mph. My guess is that, historically, such strong winds occur here on average, a bit more than once per decade. That level of wind here is a big deal and all from an event with very questionable severe potential.
If hurricanes and winter storms can be named then why not give this storm a designation too? How about

"The Florida Fakeout"?

Quoting BahaHurican:
For those who may be interested, here is a link to another news article about the deadly airplane accident that caused the deaths of three of my relatives in Mayaguana, Bahamas early this morning.

http://www.thenassauguardian.com/index.php?option =com_content&view=article&id=38196&Ite mid=27
Oh man, that's not good. Sorry to hear about it.  At least they're taking preventative measures, though.
This event isn't over yet but as I pointed out day before yesterday much depended on how much sun FL saw on Thursday..& that couldn't be answered til today.

We didn't get the day time heating so wouldn't expect it to be as bad as it might have been if everything came together.

Fresh ASCAT of the low trying on the end of the front.
Quoting Skyepony:
This event isn't over yet but as I pointed out day before yesterday much depended on how much sun FL saw on Thursday..& that couldn't be answered til today.

We didn't get the day time heating so wouldn't expect it to be as bad as it might have been if everything came together.



That is definitely true, I also think low level flow was cutoff from advecting north thus the reason for why the most recent MCS initiated so much further south. Either way, a combination of those things prevented quite a bit.


Meanwhile, a really nasty looking super cell is about to move onshore in southwest Florida, the impact area is little if any population so not much concern.
The Miami radar shows a max DBZ near 70 with that cell right off the coast and 2.75 inch hail.
True about all that Jed. That's the trick with FL weather. Sometimes you can't get those crucial pieces til 12hrs before.

Started raining again. Beckoning sleep sort of rain.. nite.

Quoting Skyepony:
True about all that Jed. That's the trick with FL weather. Sometimes you can't get those crucial pieces til 12hrs before.

Started raining again. Beckoning sleep sort of rain.. nite.



Yep, its all about meso weather in Florida, night!

That cell off the southwest coast is a monster, DBZ over 70, approaching max reflectivity that radar shows.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC021-087-050615-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0017.130405T0539Z-130405T0615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT FRI APR 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTHERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 215 AM EDT

* AT 138 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM EVERGLADES CITY TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EVERGLADES
CITY TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILDERNESS WATERWAY NORTH...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
EVERGLADES CITY...
CARNESTOWN...
OCHOPEE...
MONROE STATION...
OASIS RANGER STATION...
BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2616 8088 2565 8087 2556 8101 2557 8111
2555 8108 2554 8108 2550 8121 2555 8120
2556 8124 2568 8129 2573 8122 2580 8129
2580 8136 2586 8142 2585 8146 2588 8148
2583 8153 2588 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 246DEG 33KT 2584 8137 2575 8129
2557 8124

$$

SI

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC011-021-086-087-050700-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0019.130405T0615Z-130405T0700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT FRI APR 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT

* AT 213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DADE-COLLIER TRAINING AIRPORT
TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORTYMILE BEND TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SHARK VALLEY OBS TOWER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
DADE-COLLIER TRAINING AIRPORT...
FORTYMILE BEND...
SHARK VALLEY OBS TOWER...
MICCOSUKEE RESORT...
THE HAMMOCKS...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2560 8039 2549 8071 2541 8103 2593 8109
2600 8087 2610 8046 2583 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 258DEG 31KT 2587 8090 2573 8085
2551 8090

$$

SI
1634. LargoFl
wow Hunker down Miami.....whew.........
1635. LargoFl
RAP model still has more showers to come in....
1636. LargoFl
this is a good thing,So Florida needed this rain badly..
1637. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN SPREAD EAST OVER THE GULF COAST
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST
METRO LOCATIONS FROM 3AM THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

HAIL: MODERATE TO LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

WIND: WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

TORNADOES: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
BRIEF TORNADO OVERNIGHT.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WATERSPOUT ON ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

FLOODING: SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY AND AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN LATER TONIGHT
OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN THE POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
1638. LargoFl
showers out in the gulf but heavy stuff went south...
Quoting LargoFl:
this is a good thing,So Florida needed this rain badly..


Heavy rains in Florida should ease some drought conditions there.

1640. LargoFl
1641. LargoFl
well hopefully all this rain will put out the many brush fires florida had going and in a couple of places the rain fall totals were high, saw one place i forget where..got almost 5 inches of rain from one storm whew..well a few showers still out in the gulf, as the cold front comes thru, wont drop our temps down much..
1642. LargoFl
1643. LargoFl
well outside of a few showers, its over for my area...
1644. LargoFl
1645. LargoFl
ok back to bed LOL..see ya later.


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT FRI APR 05 2013

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

WHILE RICH GULF MOISTURE HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE SWRN PORTION OF
THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST. THE WRN TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL CONUS BY
MID-WEEK AS A POTENT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. BY THIS TIME...SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EWD TOWARDS
THE MS VALLEY. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING
BENEATH A STOUT EML...A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP.

DESPITE AVERAGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH REGARD TO
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES BY D5-6...INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RENDER A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GREATEST DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH PRIMARILY
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST ON D5 AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE...AN
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SHOULD FORM AND DEVELOP EWD TOWARDS THE MS
VALLEY WITH PRIMARY RISKS BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ON
D6. PRIOR TO D5...A LOCALIZED BUT ENHANCED RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL/FEW TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST NEAR THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT
INTERSECTION EXPECTED TO BE INVOF NWRN KS ON MON EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 04/05/2013
i see fukashima is in the news again. might be a lifetime or even more of problem after problem. yesterday big storms pooped out before hitting here in e cen florida. got sprinkles
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A chillier 44 degrees with a high of 72 expected. They have yet to come close this week with high temps. Yesterday was coat weather, not short sleeves like it said it would be. The weather hasn't learned to read yet, or is rebelling. *S*

Breakfast's on the sideboard: scrambled eggs, add your own peppers, mushrooms, and or caramelized onions, bacon, sausage, toast, yogurt and fresh orange juice.
1649. LargoFl
ok folks here comes the front with the squall line...
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today as an easterly perturbation moves thru (Tropical Wave?)


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST FRI APR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY WILL SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN. A BROAD TROUGH
WILL BUILD JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS A JET FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK. ANOTHER RIDGE
RETURNS BY SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
UNTIL A BROAD TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MID WEEK.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CREATE A
NARROW EAST WEST TROUGH THAT WILL SAG SOUTH OVER THE ISLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED DURING THIS
WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A FRONT ARE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
JOINS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA TO BECOME A STRONGER HIGH THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS PASSED OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
LEAVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SHOWERS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT RESEMBLES AN EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH AND SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
ISLAND BY 10 AM AST. MODELS INDICATE THAT A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND IN THE EVENING FOR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. DRY MID LAYERS MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH
POSSIBLE. A SECOND DISTURBANCE CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BANDS OF MOISTURE FOLLOW TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY BRING DRIER WEATHER IN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS MID LEVEL DRYING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO LESS THAN 5 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTER NEXT AND EXTENDING DOWN TO JUST ABOVE THE 850 MB
LEVEL BY SATURDAY APRIL 13.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS CONTINUES TO BRING SHRA ACROSS THE USVI AND PR
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO ABOUT 4 MILES AND CIGS AT AROUND 4000-5000 FT AS WELL AS
CAUSING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND
10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS...WITH AN EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN MOST EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 87 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 76 86 78 / 40 40 40 30
Here is the TSR April forecast=15/8/3

TSR April 5th forecast
1652. LargoFl
models were on the money this time...........
1653. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SEE THE LATEST BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING TAMPA BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
1654. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, PEA SIZED HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE POSSIBLE.

WIND: WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WATERSPOUT ACROSS THE LOCAL
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN GULF WATERS, MAINLY THIS MORNING.

FLOODING: SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
1655. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY TO JACKSONVILLE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...AND PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
...HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER STRONG JET
STREAM WINDS AND A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH...HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY
STORMS WHICH FORM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
OR HIGHER...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING OVER INLAND LAKES AND ON
THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD
AS HIGH AS 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BEYOND 20
NAUTICAL MILES. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
IF VENTURING WELL OFFSHORE.
1656. LargoFl
gee south florida has been getting this all night long..
1657. LargoFl
1658. LargoFl
from my local met...................
Wet conditions will continue for part of the day Friday before Bay area skies begin to clear and dry out.
A cold front and line of showers is moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico, according to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Juli Marquez. The front will bring some rain and windy conditions. Rain chances today are 60 percent. The rain may be heavy at times.

Once the front moves through, skies will gradually clear.

"Keep in mind after the front comes through, we will have gusty northwest winds," Marquez said. "We should have a little bit of sunshine later in the day then it will be partly cloudy and cooler tonight."

Temperatures in the 70s will drop into the 50s Friday night before a cool and sunny start to Saturday.

After a brief cooldown, the Bay area should see a beautiful weekend with clear skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
1659. LargoFl
1660. LargoFl
1661. LargoFl
...HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER STRONG JET
STREAM WINDS AND A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH...HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY
STORMS WHICH FORM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 30 TO 35 MPH.
1662. LargoFl
1663. LargoFl
Nothing yet by me,any rain that comes is welcomed..
Mornin' all... We got about an inch of rain earlier this morning. Looks like a little more interesting weather coming.



1665. LargoFl
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Mornin' all... We got about an inch of rain earlier this morning. Looks like a little more interesting weather coming.



good morning, looks like you will get the rain you need
1666. LargoFl
1667. LargoFl
TGIF!! Everyone have a great Friday! Aussie, have a great Saturday!
1669. LargoFl
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO
W COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND EXIT THE
BASIN THIS EVENING. STRONG TSTMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING EASTWARD SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUE.
1670. LargoFl
1671. LargoFl
1672. LargoFl
well I guess after this front line moves thru we will get to dry out and a couple of days of 70's and a beautiful weekend coming up here in florida...was a wild storm huh..differed a lil from what the models had predicted time wise but all in all the gfs and nam pretty much pegged it...way earlier i had doubts but when it got closer to daybreak and that squall line formed..it came about just like they said it would...and for me personally..im real glad..my area at least didnt see any tornados and golf ball sized hail stones...no home owner wants THAT anywhere near them lol...well have a great day and stay safe out there...sorry if i took up most of the posting but this was an event that needed to be posted about...
Sunday is a capped day across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, but any supercells that do break the barrier have the potential to produce large hail.

There are concerns about capping in Oklahoma and Texas on Monday, which is why the risk area from the SPC only includes Kansas. In the wheat state, supercells that [should] develop have the potential to produce massive and widespread hail. Could be one of the bigger hail outbreaks we've seen in a long time. If the cap breaks farther south, there is the potential for tornadoes, some of which would be strong.

Tuesday begins the two-day "outbreak" and the day many are concerned about. A 40-50kt LLJ combined with CAPE AOA 2000 j/kg is a very favorable environment for not only severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail, but tornadic supercells capable of producing strong to significant tornadoes.

Wednesday is the last "big" day of the outbreak. The LLJ intensifies to more than 50 knots while CAPE remains AOA 1000 j/kg. There looks to be a very powerful squall line Wednesday afternoon, stretching from Indiana to Texas. Ahead of this line, any supercells that develop have the potential to produce strong to significant tornadoes.

Rain is coming in now!:)
The next Chance of rain for S FL is Tuesday and Wednesday they have 50% chance of rain!:)
Big change from 12hrs ago, lol. I was expecting to be woken up by my weather alerts last night. Nonetheless I got an excellent nights sleep on the SEFL coast, hope everyone else got the same. :-)

000
FXUS62 KMFL 050743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT FRI APR 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN MCS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
ALABAMA...WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...SO FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE HRRR OUTPUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WORKED
OVER FROM THIS MCS...WITH MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. CLOUD
COVER WILL BLANKET THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SO THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED...WITH THE LAST STRONG STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SO LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
UNDERCUT MAV/MET TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sunday is a capped day across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, but any supercells that do break the barrier have the potential to produce large hail.

There are concerns about capping in Oklahoma and Texas on Monday, which is why the risk area from the SPC only includes Kansas. In the wheat state, supercells that [should] develop have the potential to produce massive and widespread hail. Could be one of the bigger hail outbreaks we've seen in a long time. If the cap breaks farther south, there is the potential for tornadoes, some of which would be strong.

Tuesday begins the two-day "outbreak" and the day many are concerned about. A 40-50kt LLJ combined with CAPE AOA 2000 j/kg is a very favorable environment for not only severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail, but tornadic supercells capable of producing strong to significant tornadoes.

Wednesday is the last "big" day of the outbreak. The LLJ intensifies to more than 50 knots while CAPE remains AOA 1000 j/kg. There looks to be a very powerful squall line Wednesday afternoon, stretching from Indiana to Texas. Ahead of this line, any supercells that develop have the potential to produce strong to significant tornadoes.



As a kid, I spent a summer on a farm in Nebraska. I watched Vince break down in tears when hail wrecked his 1300 acre wheat crop just two weeks before harvest. He lost about 80% of his crop that took a full year investment in an hour.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the TSR April forecast=15/8/3

TSR April 5th forecast


Not too exciting... lol.

Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity is forecast to be about 30% above the 1950-2012 long- term norm but slightly below the recent 2003-2012 10-year norm.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Anyway, hopefully there will be a lot of tropical waves/invests to keep things interesting (AND WET) even with only 15 named storms and less than 2 of them entering the Caribbean...
Any south florida rainy season predictions?