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Global warming continues with no slow down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2013

One often hears the statement in the media that global warming stopped in 1998, or that there has been no global warming for the past 16 years. Why pick 16 years? Why not some nice round number like 20 years? Or better yet, 30 years, since the climate is generally defined as the average weather experienced over a period of 30 years or longer? Temperatures at Earth's surface undergo natural, decades-long warming and cooling trends, related to the La Niña/El Niño cycle and the 11-year sunspot cycle. The reason one often hears the year 1998 used as a base year to measure global temperature trends is that this is a cherry-picked year. An extraordinarily powerful El Niño event that was the strongest on record brought about a temporary increase in surface ocean temperatures over a vast area of the tropical Pacific that year, helping boost global surface temperatures to the highest levels on record (global temperatures were warmer in both 2005 and 2010, but not by much.) But in the years from 2005 - 2012, La Niña events have been present for at least a portion of every single year, helping keep Earth's surface relatively cool. Thus, if one draws a straight-line fit of global surface temperatures from 1998 to 2012, a climate trend showing little global warming results. If one picks any year prior to 1998, or almost any year after 1998, a global warming trend does result. The choice of 1998 is a deliberate abuse of statistics in an attempt to manipulate people into drawing a false conclusion on global temperature trends. One of my favorite examples of this manipulation of statistics is shown an animated graph called "The Escalator", created by skepticalscience.com (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Average of NASA's GISS, NOAA"s NCDC, and the UK Met Office's HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature departures from average, from January 1970 through November 2012 (blue), with linear trends applied to the time frames Jan '70 - Oct '77, Apr '77 - Dec '86, Sep '87 - Nov '96, Jun '97 - Dec '02, Nov '02 - Nov '12. Climate change skeptics like to emphasize the shorter term fluctuations in global temperatures (blue lines) and ignore the long-term climate trend (red line.) The global surface temperature trend from January 1970 through November 2012 (red line) is +0.16°C (+0.29°F) per decade. Image credit: skepticalscience.com.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution to global temperature changes
We know that natural global warming or cooling on time scales of 1 - 11 years can be caused by changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar energy. For example, a study published in March 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters found that dust in the stratosphere has increased by 4 - 10% since 2000 due to volcanic eruptions, keeping the level of global warming up to 25% lower than might be expected. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years for which we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, "Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010", took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.


Figure 2. Tavurvur volcano in New Guinea erupting on March 7, 2009. According to the 2011 study, "Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade", an October 7, 2006 eruption of this volcano, in combination with a May 20, 2006 eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat Island in the Caribbean, hurled a significant amount of sulfur into the stratosphere, helping reduce global temperatures. Image credit: Taro Taylor.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2012, adjusted to remove natural variations due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar energy. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK Met Office, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image is an update (via realclimate.org) of one from a 2011 study, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010 , by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.


Figure 4. Average of NASA's GISS, NOAA"s NCDC, and the UK Met Office's HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature departures from average, from January 1970 through November 2012 (blue), with linear trends applied to the time frames Jan '70 - Oct '77, Apr '77 - Dec '86, Sep '87 - Nov '96, Jun '97 - Dec '02, Nov '02 - Nov '12. Climate change skeptics like to emphasize the shorter term fluctuations in global temperatures (blue lines) and ignore the long-term climate trend (red line.) The global surface temperature trend from January 1970 through November 2012 (red line) is +0.16°C (+0.29°F) per decade. Image credit: skepticalscinec.com.


Video 1. An animated description of how correcting for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar energy shows that global warming has continued. Video credit: skepticalscience.com.

Where is the missing heat going? Into the oceans
The preponderance of La Niña events in recent years has caused a large amount of heat from global warming to be transferred to the deep oceans, according to a journal article published earlier this week by Balmaseda et al., "Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content". The warming at the surface has slowed down in recent years, but the total amount of heat going in the atmosphere/oceans/surface has continued unabated. The next big El Niño event will be able to liberate some of this stored heat back to the surface, but much of the new deep ocean heat will stay down there for hundreds of years. As far as civilization is concerned, that is a good thing, though the extra heat energy does make ocean waters expand, raising sea levels.


Figure 5. Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter ocean heat content (OHC) increase (light blue), and 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark blue).  From Nuccitelli et al. (2012), described at skepticalscience.com.

Links
In October 2012 Carbonbrief.org published a list of six blogs and videos done to debunk the claim that the Earth hasn't warmed since 1998.

Balmaseda et al., 2013, "Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content," Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50382.

The 2013 realclimate.org annual adjusted global temperature analysis, for 1979 - 2012, concludes: "the models are on the low side of some changes, and on the high side of others, but despite short-term ups and downs, global warming continues much as predicted."

To answer frequently cited challenges to climate change science, see the wunderground.com webpage, Top Ten Skeptic Arguments, as debunked by skepticalscience.com.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

nearly 2 months to go...
or 1.5 in Epac
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
nearly 2 months to go...


Countdown to start of 2013 North Atlantic season
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Countdown


I have an hourglass for that..thanks
just watching the sand fall
Quoting Skyepony:
'05 had a decent amount of SAL where the waves wouldn't moisten up til they got past 50W.




I wonder what the return period is for a season like 2005. I hear people say we may not see anything like it for decades upon decades upon decades, but is it really that unusual?



1887 had 19 classified tropical storms...but notice the emptiness across the eastern Atlantic. Several storms were probably missed.



1933 also had emptiness across the subtropical Atlantic...



The difference between 1887 and 1933 is 46 years. If you add that to 1933, you get 1979, a season that featured 27 tropical depressions--many of which likely attained tropical storm intensity. This was during the cold AMO phase too.

I'd say 2005 is a 1-in-50 year event, give or take a decade.
Ughh...

I have a 102F - 104F and am nearly delierious...

I guarantee if winter had leftt this wouldnt have happeneds..

And the pollen is killing me....
My eyelids are swollen badly..

I hate this Spring/Winter mix.... worst of both seasons.
1007. Levi32
Quoting Skyepony:
'05 had a decent amount of SAL where the waves wouldn't moisten up til they got past 50W.


Didn't seem all that dry to me, but maybe. I also don't think there's yet a good historical record of the amount of true SAL that moves over the Atlantic during the rainy season. It's often hard to separate SAL from a regular dry atmospheric pattern, so such a record would be nice to have.

1008. pottery
Quoting allahgore:



The amount of artic ice melt in 2005 caused a record year for storms.

If that is so, then we can assume that this year will be worse than 2005.
But the same should have been true for the years 2006-2012.
It wasn't.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Those are startling images. Startling, because by the second week of September, everything in the bottom map colored white, violet, blue, and green will be gone, leaving behind just the thicker ice colored yellow, red, or black--and even much of that will be a different shade than it is now. Note that ice is thicker this year in the Barentsz Sea than it was last year, but nearly all the other extremities are thinner and/or showing less areal coverage: the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea, the Kara Sea, the Davis Strait, the Labrador Sea...

My, but the Arctic is in trouble, ins't it?


Arctic sea ice September 15th, 2012


I wonder what the 2013 IPCC report will say about this.
New paper..

Environmental Research Letters Volume 8 Number 1

James Hansen et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 011006 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011006
Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain
OPEN ACCESS

James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha and Makiko Sato
Show affiliations

This is a Perspective for the article 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044035

Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing.

Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3% yr-1, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions.


Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, an update of figure 16 of Hansen (2003) using data of British Petroleum (BP 2012) concatenated with data of Boden et al (2012).

The resulting annual increase of atmospheric CO2 (12-month running mean) has grown from less than 1 ppm yr-1 in the early 1960s to an average ~2 ppm yr-1 in the past decade (figure 2). Although CO2 measurements were not made at sufficient locations prior to the early 1980s to calculate the global mean change, the close match of global and Mauna Loa data for later years suggests that Mauna Loa data provide a good approximation of global change (figure 2), thus allowing a useful estimate of annual global change beginning with the initiation of Mauna Loa measurements in 1958 by Keeling et al (1973).

more at that link..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Ughh...

I have a 104F and am nearly delierious...

I guarantee if winter had leftt this wouldnt have happeneds..

And the pollen is killing me....
My eyelids are swollen badly..

I hate this Spring/Winter mix.... worst of both seasons.



Welcome to AGW get use to it.
Quoting pottery:

If that is so, then we can assume that this year will be worse than 2005.
But the same should have been true for the years 2006-2012.
It wasn't.


Not every year is the same. The amount in 2005 was not the same as yrs 2006-2012.
1014. pottery
Quoting Levi32:


Didn't seem all that dry to me, but maybe. I don't think there's yet a good historical record of the amount of true SAL that moves over the Atlantic during the rainy season. It's often hard to separate SAL from a regular dry atmospheric pattern.


Yeah, there was heavy SAL from Africa to the Carib. for long periods in 2005.
2006 as well, when many waves just dried up as they left the west African coast and out to about 40w.

Interesting stuff.
1015. Gearsts
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Black hole?
This setup would undoubtedly lead to a tornado outbreak across the Arklatex region. It's over 10 days out though and the 6z GFS is the only run to show such a combination of factors.







Could be some pretty big hail producers this afternoon/evening across north TX, SPC has added a 30% risk for today:

Quoting Levi32:


Didn't seem all that dry to me, but maybe. I also don't think there's yet a good historical record of the amount of true SAL that moves over the Atlantic during the rainy season. It's often hard to separate SAL from a regular dry atmospheric pattern, so such a record would be nice to have.



I remember some paper or two on it that year or the next. We've had years of more SAL since & I'm not sure if it was a record that year but it was enough it was attributed to the number of naked swirls that made it across before turning to storms & recurving.
1019. pottery
Quoting allahgore:


Not every year is the same. The amount in 2005 was not the same as yrs 2006-2012.

True.
But are you saying that '05 had more melt than the following years?

I'm not sure about that, myself.
1020. pottery
Quoting Gearsts:
Black hole?

LOL, and I'm in it......
why is this model still showing winter precip

iam so tried of it i just want to do the spring cleanup and get ready for summer

1022. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why is this model still showing winter precip

iam so tried of it i just want to do the spring cleanup and get ready for summer


It's Global Dreadness, Keeper.
Get used to it.

:):))
Good Afternoon and Happy Easter weekend for all the folks who celebrate it. Looks like nice weather across the SE Conus for this weekend (cant say the same for other colder parts of the US) so enjoy it.

We will all be patiently awaiting, and debating, the upcoming early-season forecasts from the major players and Dr. M will post the same stats he does every year....Very low reliability on these early season ones with much better reliability on the August updates when we get a better picture of the set-up going into the historical peak of the Atlantic season.

As I noted yesterday, I will be keeping a close eye on the E-Pac season given the noted and documented inverse correlation between the E-Pac and Atlantic basin; when activity is high in the E-Pac in June/July, things are usually quieter in the Atlantic and don't really pick up until August.

All the other "x" factors to consider will have to wait until August to see how it all gels at that time (usual players being SAL issues, the summer position of the A-B high, relative sheer values, Enso phase, MJO forecasts, etc.).

So much too consider; lot's of folks focus on water temps alone (Man it's boiling in the Gulf, better watch out) but the last several years have seen pretty high SST's in the Gulf, including prominent eddies/loop currents, but thankfully, none the storms headed that way were able to blow up into major status. No way to predict what will actually happen this year until it unfolds but always looking for anomalies and surprises along the way.
Quoting pottery:

True.
But are you saying that '05 had more melt than the following years?

I'm not sure about that, myself.


record ice melt does not equal more storms or more majors.
The 12z GFS came in considerably less aggressive on the potential Gulf low late next week. It shows a smaller area of heavy precip, and also has it further south, still plenty of rain for much of FL but we'll have to see if it trends lower from here:

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why is this model still showing winter precip

iam so tried of it i just want to do the spring cleanup and get ready for summer



Fans from the west :)
1027. pottery
Quoting allahgore:


record ice melt does not equal more storms or more majors.

..... as far as we know.
Another interesting graph out of that paper I posted. We were discussing some of this the other day.. Click pic for paper.




Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change and global temperature change are 12-month running means of differences for the same month of consecutive years. Nino index (Nino3.4 area) is 12-month running mean. Both temperature indices use data from Hansen et al (2010). Annual mean CO2 amount in 1958 was 315 ppm (Mauna Loa) and in 2012 was 394 ppm (Mauna Loa) and 393 ppm (Global).

Interannual variability of CO2 growth is correlated with ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variations of tropical temperatures (figure 2). Ocean–atmosphere CO2 exchange is affected by ENSO (Chavez et al 1999), but ENSO seems to have a greater impact on atmospheric CO2 via the terrestrial carbon cycle through effects on the water cycle, temperature, and fire, as discussed in a large body of literature (referenced, e.g., by Schwalm et al 2011). In addition, volcanoes, such as the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, slow the increase of atmospheric CO2 (Rothenberg et al 2012), at least in part because photosynthesis is enhanced by the increased proportion of diffuse sunlight (Gu et al 2003, Mercado et al 2009). Watson (1997) suggests that volcanic dust deposited on the ocean surface may also contribute to CO2 uptake by increasing ocean productivity.

An important question is whether ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks will tend to saturate as human-made CO2 emissions continue. Piao et al (2008) and Zhao and Running (2010) suggest that there already may be a reduction of terrestrial carbon uptake, while Le Quéréet al (2007) and Schuster and Watson (2007) find evidence of decreased carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, respectively. However, others (Knorr 2009, Sarmiento et al 2010, Ballantyne et al 2012) either cast doubt on the reality of a reduced uptake strength or find evidence for increased uptake.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This setup would undoubtedly lead to a tornado outbreak across the Arklatex region. It's over 10 days out though and the 6z GFS is the only run to show such a combination of factors.


Arkansas has latex?

lol, I know what TA means, just first time I have ever heard anyone say it that way.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
To quote a pyrate friend of mine...

Joe Bastardi's first round of hysteria:

16 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

- ACE index of 165

- Many hits along the East Coast. He states the major hurricane landfall drought is LIKELY to come to end this year, and the USA may actually be hit by several majors.

- Pattern is comparable to 2005 and the 1950s.




Yikes... Oh, and Good Afternoon... 63.7 here this morning....
Looks like the NAO may finally go positive as we get into mid-April:

can anyone figure this one...I remember it from accuweather long time ago during the 2011 tornado outbreaks

Arklatexoma - 4 states in there
Quoting Skyepony:
Another interesting graph out of that paper I posted. We were discussing some of this the other day.. Click pic for paper.




Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change and global temperature change are 12-month running means of differences for the same month of consecutive years. Nino index (Nino3.4 area) is 12-month running mean. Both temperature indices use data from Hansen et al (2010). Annual mean CO2 amount in 1958 was 315 ppm (Mauna Loa) and in 2012 was 394 ppm (Mauna Loa) and 393 ppm (Global).

Interannual variability of CO2 growth is correlated with ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variations of tropical temperatures (figure 2). Ocean–atmosphere CO2 exchange is affected by ENSO (Chavez et al 1999), but ENSO seems to have a greater impact on atmospheric CO2 via the terrestrial carbon cycle through effects on the water cycle, temperature, and fire, as discussed in a large body of literature (referenced, e.g., by Schwalm et al 2011). In addition, volcanoes, such as the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, slow the increase of atmospheric CO2 (Rothenberg et al 2012), at least in part because photosynthesis is enhanced by the increased proportion of diffuse sunlight (Gu et al 2003, Mercado et al 2009). Watson (1997) suggests that volcanic dust deposited on the ocean surface may also contribute to CO2 uptake by increasing ocean productivity.

An important question is whether ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks will tend to saturate as human-made CO2 emissions continue. Piao et al (2008) and Zhao and Running (2010) suggest that there already may be a reduction of terrestrial carbon uptake, while Le Quéréet al (2007) and Schuster and Watson (2007) find evidence of decreased carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, respectively. However, others (Knorr 2009, Sarmiento et al 2010, Ballantyne et al 2012) either cast doubt on the reality of a reduced uptake strength or find evidence for increased uptake.



Do you have a graph starting in 1947?
1034. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:
Another interesting graph out of that paper I posted. We were discussing some of this the other day.. Click pic for paper.




Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change and global temperature change are 12-month running means of differences for the same month of consecutive years. Nino index (Nino3.4 area) is 12-month running mean. Both temperature indices use data from Hansen et al (2010). Annual mean CO2 amount in 1958 was 315 ppm (Mauna Loa) and in 2012 was 394 ppm (Mauna Loa) and 393 ppm (Global).

Interannual variability of CO2 growth is correlated with ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variations of tropical temperatures (figure 2). Ocean–atmosphere CO2 exchange is affected by ENSO (Chavez et al 1999), but ENSO seems to have a greater impact on atmospheric CO2 via the terrestrial carbon cycle through effects on the water cycle, temperature, and fire, as discussed in a large body of literature (referenced, e.g., by Schwalm et al 2011). In addition, volcanoes, such as the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, slow the increase of atmospheric CO2 (Rothenberg et al 2012), at least in part because photosynthesis is enhanced by the increased proportion of diffuse sunlight (Gu et al 2003, Mercado et al 2009). Watson (1997) suggests that volcanic dust deposited on the ocean surface may also contribute to CO2 uptake by increasing ocean productivity.

An important question is whether ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks will tend to saturate as human-made CO2 emissions continue. Piao et al (2008) and Zhao and Running (2010) suggest that there already may be a reduction of terrestrial carbon uptake, while Le Quéréet al (2007) and Schuster and Watson (2007) find evidence of decreased carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, respectively. However, others (Knorr 2009, Sarmiento et al 2010, Ballantyne et al 2012) either cast doubt on the reality of a reduced uptake strength or find evidence for increased uptake.


That part surprises me a little.
Interested to see the continuing research.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why is this model still showing winter precip

iam so tried of it i just want to do the spring cleanup and get ready for summer


I agree... Go away winter
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like the NAO may finally go positive as we get into mid-April:


Maybe..

867 AGWcreationists: The US, by itself, provides around $2 billion a year in funding for climate change research. So I would say those on the receiving end of that funding do have an underlying vested interest in promulgating climate change theories and calls for additional action.

The US would be spending MORE on climate research if the climate were not changing. It's not as if we understand the mechanisms behind short-term (ENSO/etc) variations within a climate well enough for that knowledge to be applied in the creation of precise long-term weather forecasts.
Due to its sensor programs, the USNavy is VERY interested in haloclines and oceanic thermoclines and sea-ice topography independent of their effect on weather. Its support is the main reason that underwater gliders and the ArgoProject so easily received funding for the research&development of the hardware and software, for their deployment, and for the ongoing research using those tools.
For similar reasons, the USNavy and USAirForce are VERY interested in atmospheric thermoclines and atmospheric chemistry independent of their effect on weather.
Add the CentralIntelligenceAgency, the NationalReconnaissanceOffice, and the USmilitary in general to the list of folks who are VERY interested independent of their effect on weather, and ya get where the very strong behind-the-scenes support for funding NASA as well as the geophysical and astronomical communities comes from.
(Think of such funding as being for military and intelligence "black project"s that attract the most creative scientists&engineers by providing the figleaf of "I'm not working for soldiers and spies.")
And all of the above organizations are also VERY interested in accurate long-term weather prediction for various reasons.

Without ClimateChange and its tie-in to GreenhouseGas emissions, that background support for more funding would be overwhelming.
As is, we've got a LOT of Congressmen who are quite willing to betray their nation to enhance the profits of the fossil fuel industry and other industries that are the most dependent upon cheap fossil fuels.
As is, we've got a LOT of Congressmen blocking and delaying funds for needed research tools such as replacements for QuikSCAT* (given its projected lifetime in 1999, there should have been 3 more of 'em up there by the time the original came down in 2009) and GRACE^ (ever evolving gravimetric information needed for accuracy in inertial guidance systems)

* Among other things that torqued off the FossilFuel&etc industries, QuikSCAT was the first to provide data about the decrease in the volume of the ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica due to melting.
^ Confirmed QuikSCAT data while tightening error parameters that even more strongly showed the ice caps to be melting, then later showed a large increase in the rate of melting since the original QuikSCAT finding.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Fans from the west :)
gonna have to go fishing i guess
Also note that everyone was wrong last season (both with the April outlooks and the August updates) as to the number of majors..........I was amazed at the large number of tropical storms and lack of many majors myself.........However, we still learned the hard way (i.e. Sandy); don't need a major to cause havoc and tons of slow moving, and wet, tropical storms can cause just as much damage (flooding-mudslides, etc.) and human suffering than a fast moving Cane. Amazing experience with Sandy last year (one for the books) with the merger of the system with a winter low.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Yikes... Oh, and Good Afternoon... 63.7 here this morning....
hey ped 51.4 outside my door unofficial

official temp is

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Friday 29 March 2013
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 30.2 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 49.8°F
Dewpoint: 25.5°F
Humidity: 38 %
Wind: WNW 10 mph

i posted my hurricane outlook as well remember just a shot in the dark like everyone else

2013 SEASONAL OUTLOOK
21 TO 24 STORMS 9 TO 11 CYCLONES 3 TO 5 MAJORS
There's a slight chance we'll see the SPC issue a moderate risk for hail tomorrow... the new Day 2 outlook added a 30% hatched area, up from just 15% before:



FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN SE KS TO THE LOWER 60S F
AROUND WICHITA FALLS TX. MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1500 TO
2000 J/KG IN SE KS AND NE OK WITH HIGHER VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG
POSSIBLE SWWD INTO SW OK AND NORTH TX. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NE OK TO AROUND 40
KT NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF STRONG
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.


I don't think they'll upgrade but it's not impossible.
1042. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey ped 51.4 outside my door unofficial

official temp is

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Friday 29 March 2013
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 30.2 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 49.8°F
Dewpoint: 25.5°F
Humidity: 38 %
Wind: WNW 10 mph

i posted my hurricane outlook as well remember just a shot in the dark like everyone else
br>2013 SEASONAL OUTLOOK
21 TO 24 STORMS 9 TO 11 CYCLONES 3 TO 5 MAJORS


Hmmm... OK.

I'l go with 18 storms, 7 cyclones, 2 majors for 2013.
There are a couple of severe warned storms in SE Oklahoma producing large hail. Hail up to the size of golfballs and 60mph gusts are mentioned in the warnings. The day 2 outlook includes a 30% hatched risk area in parts of Oklahoma and Texas tomorrow. Threats include large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
1044. red0
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Seriously, your lack of understanding of human nature is striking. There is a very strong motivation - if your paycheck is tied to federal funding to ameloriate climate change - to make sure that such funding keeps coming.

Whether or not you believe the reasons for such motivation are valid, there still is an inherent motivation to keep the federal funding coming.


Who is paying the thermometers to lie, and the ice to melt?

1045. pottery
Quoting red0:


Who is paying the thermometers to lie, and the ice to melt?


BRAVO !
1047. txjac
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also note that everyone was wrong last season (both with the April outlooks and the August updates) as to the number of majors..........I was amazed at the large number of tropical storms and lack of many majors myself.........However, we still learned the hard way (i.e. Sandy); don't need a major to cause havoc and tons of slow moving, and wet, tropical storms can cause just as much damage (flooding-mudslides, etc.) and human suffering than a fast moving Cane. Amazing experience with Sandy last year (one for the books) with the merger of the system with a winter low.


On this same note remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to Houston

By no means am I comparing Sandy to Allison ...just noting that you dont need a major to make damage
tomorrow



1050. LargoFl
GFS for Saturday............................
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
hey max mark me down on your storm chart for total storms 24 total canes 12 majors 5
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also note that everyone was wrong last season (both with the April outlooks and the August updates) as to the number of majors..........I was amazed at the large number of tropical storms and lack of many majors myself.........However, we still learned the hard way (i.e. Sandy); don't need a major to cause havoc and tons of slow moving, and wet, tropical storms can cause just as much damage (flooding-mudslides, etc.) and human suffering than a fast moving Cane. Amazing experience with Sandy last year (one for the books) with the merger of the system with a winter low.


Lack of vertical instability may be an under appreciated factor. It was well below average last year, and well above in 2005.
3 alarm fire in birmingham




EDIT: The roof of the large, vacant building on fire in downtown Birmingham partially collapsed a few minutes ago
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey max mark me down on your storm chart for total storms 24 total canes 12 majors 5


caught it mod! 24 storms sounds like Alpha needs to get the alarm on that clock.
1055. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY STRAIGHT LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL.
1056. LargoFl
GFS for Easter Sunday..........................
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
3 alarm fire in birmingham


Yup, part of the roof looks to have just collapsed.
I just saw your edit.
At least the weather isn't hampering the firefighting efforts. The temperature is 66F with a south wind at 8mph, not bad.

1058. LargoFl
Stay Alert Texans.....................
The 12z GFS showed a pair of cyclones developing in the South Indian Ocean starting in about 5 days. It strengthens both of them significantly as one heads towards Madagascar while the other goes towards Australia. Then they both dive south towards the end of the run and miss everything. It looks great on the WU model maps if you want to check it out. The GFS has been persistent in developing 1-2 storms in that basin soon, and has tended to make whatever develops pretty strong, so we'll have to see what happens. Here's one of them at 300 hours:

1060. LargoFl
Quoting yonzabam:


Lack of vertical instability may be an under appreciated factor. It was well below average last year, and well above in 2005.


Yup. Dr. M addressed that in one of his blogs last year in the post-season; very stable in the Atlantic basin as opposed to previous years in spite of favorable conditions otherwise. The biggest surprise for me last year, and noted by all who were watching several tropical storms struggle to get vertically stacked in the Caribbean, was the speed of the tradewinds as several of these storms were just booking along too fast to get properly organized....No way to predict/forecast that unexpected event (faster trade winds) with computer models which are looking at other more obvious factors.
Quoting pottery:


Hmmm... OK.

I'l go with 18 storms, 7 cyclones, 2 majors for 2013.


Keeper and you are up for list now... thanks...
1063. LargoFl
Nino 1+2 Region is cooling down lately.
Somewhere the NAM got the idea that the back half of precip would be snow







it's colder than GFS with post front temps as well
1066. Xulonn
Quoting bjrabbit:
snip...I have nothing invested except my beliefs but for those beliefs, one can get attacked on this blog...which I too find interesting.

I believe that the best scientist is one who is open to all sides and willing to admit that they can be wrong. "Scientific Fact" has been proved wrong before.
This is a "science-based blog" and not a "belief-based blog." In the world of science, evidence is of paramount importance, and without evidence you make yourself vulnerable to being disputed.

Your above post actually describes the vast majority of scientists. Their feet are held to the fire by peer pressure. They try to poke holes in each other's papers and conclusions every day - and defend their own. If they are wrong, the peer review process and competitive research environment will eventually prove them wrong. It doesn't matter if they are "willing" to admit that they are wrong - if they are proven wrong, the rest of the scientific community will accept that fact - but it takes real science and solid evidence. And it's other scientists, not misinformed laypersons, who end up "proving" science issues wrong.

I will accept your statement that you rely on your beliefs, but when you put your unsupported beliefs up in public - on a science-based blog, and against solid science, I - and others - will take issue with you. As I said before, you don't provide any solid "scientific evidence" for your "beliefs." Those beliefs appear to be founded on unsupported speculation, dis-proven myths and falsehoods that pervade the anti-AGW/CC denialist community.

There are many "science-aware" people here - and we range from some who are actual working scientists to laypersons with a solid science background. To us, beliefs like yours are as flimsy as a belief that would convince someone to fly on an airplane that the best experts in the world have said has a 98% chance of crashing before it lands. And do so just because someone without any solid credentials said the experts were wrong. That's not the kind of risk I want to take.
1067. pottery
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Keeper and you are up for list now... thanks...

OK thanks.
anyone noticed what is the top black bar in weather.com... thinking is a cataclysmic event
Back above 1C.



1070. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Somewhere the NAM got the idea that the back half of precip would be snow





GS...the NWS says it IS a cold front, its going to sink into the Gulf..then return as a Warm front..then come down yet again as another cold front...hence all the stormy weather this coming week.
1071. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Back above 1C.





I've seen the second "picture" that you have posted previously on the blog ...and having statements about a "tripole". Could someone please take the time to show me what is meant by the tripole and how to see it on this map. Thanks in advance
1072. LargoFl
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
anyone noticed what is the top black bar in weather.com... thinking is a cataclysmic event
yes they are running a series, 5 or 7 things that COULD..wipe out humanity,pretty cool stuff story wise.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Nino 1+2 Region is cooling down lately.


Nino 3 is the warmest right now.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes they are running a series, 5 or 7 things that COULD..wipe out humanity,pretty cool stuff story wise.


European Plague...aka black death is one of them...
it keeps me wondering about the whole deal
1075. LargoFl
ok so the REAL FUN for the gulf coast states starts Tuesday and goes all the way thru friday..................SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF TUE MORNING AND EXTEND FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO
LATE TUE.

$$
How are the GFS and ECMWF forecasting the NAO for the next month? I like the graphics that hydrus brings with the red and blue colors.
1077. LargoFl
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


European Plague...aka black death is one of them...
it keeps me wondering about the whole deal
can you imagine if that hit TODAY..with our huge population world wide
Quoting stormchaser19:
Nino 1+2 Region is cooling down lately.


The cool down is probably due to the upwelling phase of the recent kelvin wave. Also, bear in mind that this is the warmest part of the year for NINO 1 and 2.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/enso_update/sst_c.gif
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
How are the GFS and ECMWF forecasting the NAO for the next month? I like the graphics that hydrus brings with the red and blue colors.

These ones?
GFS = 12Z
ECMWF = 00Z

GFS:


ECMWF:
Quoting wxchaser97:

These ones?
GFS = 12Z
ECMWF = 00Z

GFS:


ECMWF:


Yep those.
Quoting LargoFl:
can you imagine if that hit TODAY..with now 6-8 million people on earth?..geez


Yes, in the developed countries, not much of an impact. Barely felt if it even pops up. The undeveloped countries are the ones that have to worry about these things.

Weather related: Saw snow flakes yesterday as flurries went by in Happy Valley, PA.

Edit: I see you fixed your error, :)
1082. LargoFl
lets see if this does in fact Verify next thursday.......
1083. LargoFl
anyone remember HOW that Black Plague was spread from person to person?..was it flies or bugs?..or was it bad cattle or maybe filthy drinking water?..anyone know for sure?
1084. pottery
Quoting Astrometeor:


Yes, in the developed countries, not much of an impact. Barely felt if it even pops up. The undeveloped countries are the ones that have to worry about these things.

Weather related: Saw snow flakes yesterday as flurries went by in Happy Valley, PA.

They dont worry about that too much.
The current worry is Food Prices that are increasing drastically due to weather related issues.

Food staples like rice, maize (corn), wheat, etc have seen a big jump in price recently.
Primarily due to extreme weather ....
Quoting LargoFl:
can you imagine if that hit TODAY..with our huge population world wide


balance it out...

in one corner
better technology
medicine
studies (sorry about that error), etc

in the other corner
time running against it
many deaths (just like with H1N1 virus)
not everyone could get treated for it
no enough supply if in mass demand
etc...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Keeper and you are up for list now... thanks...
Max. Good afternoon friend... Put me down for 16 total,6 canes, 1 major...Being that I live at ground zero I try to underestimate each season...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Max. Good afternoon friend... Put me down for 16 total,6 canes, 1 major...Being that I live at ground zero I try to underestimate each season...


I understand.
Be ready to act if time comes.

let's enjoy spring and warm weather for now

Hi and thanks by the way..you are the 63rd listed
Quoting txjac:


I've seen the second "picture" that you have posted previously on the blog ...and having statements about a "tripole". Could someone please take the time to show me what is meant by the tripole and how to see it on this map. Thanks in advance

The Atlantic tripole consists of warm waters in the deep tropics, a belt of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitudes, and then a second region of high sea surface temperatures in the upper latitudes. This sort of pattern focuses heat and convergence over the Main Development Region (including the Caribbean), lowering pressures and promoting tropical cyclone development.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) -- There's more bad news for California water users: the snow pack is just half the amount of normal and has already begun to melt.

After a wet fall, the state recorded the driest January and February on record, and March didn't fare much better.

Measurements taken Thursday show 28.5 inches of snow at 7,600 feet with a water content of just over a foot.

The sparse snow was particularly alarming for state water managers because this is the time of year it is supposed to be most plentiful.

Snowmelt provides about a third of the water used in households and on farms across California.

The Department of Water Resources says reservoir storage will meet most of this year's needs but cautions that successive dry years could result in drought.

sigh...that it will...
1090. pottery
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Max. Good afternoon friend... Put me down for 16 total,6 canes, 1 major...Being that I live at ground zero I try to underestimate each season...

Good to see your numbers.
Those are for WPB alone, right ?
We are talking the entire Atl. Basin.

(heheheheh, just kidding you. Good luck with the coming season!)
1091. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Atlantic tripole consists of warm waters in the deep tropics, a belt of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitudes, and then a second region of high sea surface temperatures in the upper latitudes. This sort of pattern focuses heat and convergence over the Main Development Region (including the Caribbean), lowering pressures and promoting tropical cyclone development.



Thanks so much. I see and understand now. When I was looking I was trying to find something in a triangle shape ..duh me
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I understand.
Be ready to act if time comes.

let's enjoy spring and warm weather for now
Max, been in Palm Beach county for 30 years.... Hope I never see another back to back seasons like 2004 & 2005. Francis, Jeanne, and the unforgettable WILMA.... Still a few blue roofs around from that storm.
Quoting LargoFl:
GS...the NWS says it IS a cold front, its going to sink into the Gulf..then return as a Warm front..then come down yet again as another cold front...hence all the stormy weather this coming week.


it is a cold front,but the back half of precip falling as snow seems overdone.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC053-089-103-119-292015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0001.130329T1822Z-130329T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST FRI MAR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
NAGUABO
FAJARDO
LUQUILLO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 217 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAINS
AND EL YUNQUE. THIS RAIN WATER WILL MOVE DOWN THE FAJARDO RIVER AND
IS EXPECTED TO SEND IT INTO FLOOD BEFORE 3 PM AST. FLOODING WHERE
HIGHWAYS 3 AND 52 INTERSECT IS LIKELY. THE FAJARDO RIVER AT PARAISO
WAS AT 7.68 FEET AT 2:15 PM AST...WHERE FLOOD STAGE IS 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6562 1829 6563 1828 6568 1829 6569
1827 6573 1829 6576 1828 6577 1825 6573
1826 6570 1824 6573 1826 6579 1833 6578

$$

SNELL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Max, been in Palm Beach county for 30 years.... Hope I never see another back to back seasons like 2004 & 2005. Francis, Jeanne, and the unforgettable WILMA.... Still a few blue roofs around from that storm.


Trust me...I feel you!

I know how's to get through these hard natural phenomena... the recovery afterwards and everything.

Be glad you have made it though all these storms... and same (if any) more to come...
1096. LargoFl
this is about as far south the snow goes on GFS...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) -- There's more bad news for California water users: the snow pack is just half the amount of normal and has already begun to melt.

After a wet fall, the state recorded the driest January and February on record, and March didn't fare much better.

Measurements taken Thursday show 28.5 inches of snow at 7,600 feet with a water content of just over a foot.

The sparse snow was particularly alarming for state water managers because this is the time of year it is supposed to be most plentiful.

Snowmelt provides about a third of the water used in households and on farms across California.

The Department of Water Resources says reservoir storage will meet most of this year's needs but cautions that successive dry years could result in drought.

sigh...that it will...


How are those "come to California" ads working?

You know, "somebody" in the state has got to do something besides be a circus clown or a tour guide.

Over population is the second problem though. They have 1/6th of the national population in California.

With all those sunny days, they could convert those useless beaches into solar desalination facilities (for drinking), and use the snow melt for farming and bathing. Problem solved.

Sure beats desertification of lakes in neighboring states.
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone remember HOW that Black Plague was spread from person to person?..was it flies or bugs?..or was it bad cattle or maybe filthy drinking water?..anyone know for sure?


Bacterium spread by bites from rat fleas. Three types - bubonic, septicemic and pneumonic. The pneumonic version by far the worst, as it spread from person to person like flu.

Treatable with penicillin, but early intervention needed.
1099. hydrus
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Max, been in Palm Beach county for 30 years.... Hope I never see another back to back seasons like 2004 & 2005. Francis, Jeanne, and the unforgettable WILMA.... Still a few blue roofs around from that storm.
Lived in Florida for over 40, and I am with you on that.
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone remember HOW that Black Plague was spread from person to person?..was it flies or bugs?..or was it bad cattle or maybe filthy drinking water?..anyone know for sure?


Through rats.

Not to mention the people were very un-hygienic and had it all wrong; they thought it was better to not wash yourself over long periods of time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Atlantic tripole consists of warm waters in the deep tropics, a belt of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitudes, and then a second region of high sea surface temperatures in the upper latitudes. This sort of pattern focuses heat and convergence over the Main Development Region (including the Caribbean), lowering pressures and promoting tropical cyclone development.

first spurt consists of small stuff maybe a couple of TS then main event
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) -- There's more bad news for California water users: the snow pack is just half the amount of normal and has already begun to melt.

After a wet fall, the state recorded the driest January and February on record, and March didn't fare much better.

Measurements taken Thursday show 28.5 inches of snow at 7,600 feet with a water content of just over a foot.

The sparse snow was particularly alarming for state water managers because this is the time of year it is supposed to be most plentiful.

Snowmelt provides about a third of the water used in households and on farms across California.

The Department of Water Resources says reservoir storage will meet most of this year's needs but cautions that successive dry years could result in drought.

sigh...that it will...
the entire climate zone will shift northwards as things move along and have eventual change
and the desert southwest will just be known as the desert south Equatorial Regions south of 33.3 degrees north
Quoting yonzabam:


Bacterium spread by bites from rat fleas. Three types - bubonic, septicemic and pneumonic. The pneumonic version by far the worst, as it spread from person to person like flu.

Treatable with penicillin, but early intervention needed.


Now there is a vaccine available.
1104. ncstorm
POTENT!! much needed rain..12z CMC





1105. dabirds
I'll bite Max, no scientific reasoning, but let's break the 19 and no major conus streaks - 20, 9, 4 w/ 1 conus (hopefully a graze in a lightly populated area)w/ plenty of warning.

Most of the foot to foot & half of snow is gone already, except shaded, drifted, and piled areas. Hoping for a good, normal time frame morel season in S C IL this coming month.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
first spurt consists of small stuff maybe a couple of TS then main event the entire climate zone will shift northwards as things move along and have eventual change
and the desert southwest will just be known as the desert south Equatorial Regions south of 33.3 degrees north


Look at the bright side we will have new farm land to produce crops to feed a growing global population. If life throws you a curve ball it's best to learn to adjust and hit a homerun.
brrr

Quoting dabirds:
I'll bite Max, no scientific reasoning, but let's break the 19 and no major conus streaks - 20, 9, 4 w/ 1 conus (hopefully a graze in a lightly populated area)w/ plenty of warning.

Most of the foot to foot & half of snow is gone already, except shaded, drifted, and piled areas. Hoping for a good, normal time frame morel season in S C IL this coming month.


alright..got you for 20/9/4 thanks...
I have a rather bitter taste...

be back after dinner
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Atlantic tripole consists of warm waters in the deep tropics, a belt of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitudes, and then a second region of high sea surface temperatures in the upper latitudes. This sort of pattern focuses heat and convergence over the Main Development Region (including the Caribbean), lowering pressures and promoting tropical cyclone development.

The tropical Atlantic is really boiling.The caribbean though not su much and I know is because of the cold fronts.The eastern pacific though has start cooling specially the part near Mexico I see a big blue spot.
1110. LargoFl
Quoting wxgeek723:


Through rats.

Not to mention the people were very un-hygienic and had it all wrong; they thought it was better to not wash yourself over long periods of time.
well in the 80's i did a trip for work into several countries in europe..and rats i did see and i guess rats are here to stay in the USA too huh..glad there IS a vaccine for it.
we get to see another couple of those left turning storms this season

this is new thing and could be a serious problem if they occur repeatly each season from last
1112. pottery
Quoting allahgore:


Look at the bright side we will have new farm land to produce crops to feed a growing global population.

True that.
But at the expense of ecological diversity, clean water, etc.
The lovely forested mountains of places like Montana will look really grim, covered in SoyaBean.....

It's a funny thing....
when we destroy a building it's called terrorism.
when we destroy a Landscape it's called Progress.
1113. LargoFl
Link.............OFF TOPIC BUT.....if your computer was running slow yesterday and maybe today or sites not working etc..i saw on CNN..yesterday there was a world wide attack on the internet...the feds are investigating as well as other countries etc.....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we get to see another couple of those left turning storms this season

this is new thing and could be a serious problem if they occur repeatly each season from last


I have no way of knowing of course, but I'm thinking nothing will be headed into Texas again this year. Especially if this no rain forecast is because of another relentless ridge sitting on us.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecast last week that Texas, Oklahoma and the Pacific Northwest will likely get less rainfall in 2013 than in 2012, and that the entire nation will experience a warmer summer than last year.
Quoting pottery:

True that.
But at the expense of ecological diversity, clean water, etc.
The lovely forested mountains of places like Montana will look really grim, covered in SoyaBean.....

It's a funny thing....
when we destroy a building it's called terrorism.
when we destroy a Landscape it's called Progress.


its whatever they tell us it is pottery


clouds outside are changing getting that summer like puffy look to em instead of the flat dull look

warm clouds

rain coming
Quoting pottery:

True that.
But at the expense of ecological diversity, clean water, etc.
The lovely forested mountains of places like Montana will look really grim, covered in SoyaBean.....

It's a funny thing....
when we destroy a building it's called terrorism.
when we destroy a Landscape it's called Progress.



AGW is a curve ball; life is full of curve balls. The best thing is to learn how to hit a homerun when a curve ball is thrown your way. Crying about the pitcher throwing you curve balls will get you struck out!
1117. kwgirl
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone remember HOW that Black Plague was spread from person to person?..was it flies or bugs?..or was it bad cattle or maybe filthy drinking water?..anyone know for sure?
Fleas on rats.
12Z GFS all the rain in S FL!!:)
Quoting allahgore:


Look at the bright side we will have new farm land to produce crops to feed a growing global population. If life throws you a curve ball it's best to learn to adjust and hit a homerun.


And where are the settlers to colonize Siberia going to come from?. Who's going to build the infrastructure to support the new farming communities? Sounds good in theory until you start going into the detail.
Quoting allancalderini:
The tropical Atlantic is really boiling.The caribbean though not su much and I know is because of the cold fronts.The eastern pacific though has start cooling specially the part near Mexico I see a big blue spot.


in September will look like a boiler!!!
1121. pottery
Quoting LargoFl:
LinkOFF TOPIC BUT.....if your computer was running slow yesterday and maybe today or sites not working etc..i saw on CNN..yesterday there was a world wide attack on the internet...the feds are investigating as well as other countries etc.....

I read that too.

Here, we had a Nation-wide electricity blackout from 11:00 pm to this morning.
Seems there was a low-pressure problem with the gas, to the power stations.
But with the entire Island shut down, we did our bit for "Earth Day"....
Quoting yonzabam:


And where are the settlers to colonize Siberia going to come from?. Who's going to build the infrastructure to support the new farming communities? Sounds good in theory until you start going into the detail.


The time is now to get in the batting cage to learn how to hit the curve ball. You have to be proactive not reactive when learning how to hit a homerun when curve balls are thrown your way.
1123. Levi32
Twin southern hemisphere tropical cyclones develop and mature in unison in the Indian Ocean during the 5-15 day period on the GFS.





1124. pottery
Quoting allahgore:



AGW is a curve ball; life is full of curve balls. The best thing is to learn how to hit a homerun when a curve ball is thrown your way. Crying about the pitcher throwing you curve balls will get you struck out!

I understand what your'e saying, but AGW is not at all like me against a pitcher.

I have an option with the pitcher.
I can walk up to him and whack him over the head.
Might get into trouble for that, but no more curve-balls.

I personally dont have that kind of option with the other thing.
I get to sit here and watch as things fall apart.

And by the way, my Country, (Trinidad) is one of the biggest co2 producers (per capita) on the Planet.
Quoting yonzabam:


And where are the settlers to colonize Siberia going to come from?. Who's going to build the infrastructure to support the new farming communities? Sounds good in theory until you start going into the detail.


How is constantly posting graphs showing how bad it is going to be going to fix the problem? There comes a time when you need to put the bull horns down and stop posting graphs and get to work fixing the problem!
1126. pottery
Quoting allahgore:


The time is now to get in the batting cage to learn how to hit the curve ball. You have to be proactive not reactive when learning how to hit a homerun when curve balls are thrown your way.

NAH !

Proactive would be whacking the pitcher with the bat BEFORE he pitches....

:):))
1127. pottery
Quoting allahgore:


How is constantly posting graphs showing how bad it is going to be going to fix the problem? There comes a time when you need to put the bull horns down and stop posting graphs and get to work fixing the problem!

Any ideas ??
Quoting pottery:

I understand what your'e saying, but AGW is not at all like me against a pitcher.

I have an option with the pitcher.
I can walk up to him and whack him over the head.
Might get into trouble for that, but no more curve-balls.

I personally dont have that kind of option with the other thing.
I get to sit here and watch as things fall apart.

And by the way, my Country, (Trinidad) is one of the biggest co2 producers (per capita) on the Planet.


well you always have someone in the bull pen ready and willing to continue to keep the curve balls going your way. Do we just sit and cry about AGW? or do we do something about it?
We are getting the needed rain where it counts,in the rivers that go to the lakes that have gone down in past weeks. Some flooding has occured but nothing major so far. Hopefully with this rain,they dont have to ration the water. By the way,I see a mini vortex in the radar in the Central range mountains. I guess that the dance of this morning worked.

1130. red0
Quoting JohnLonergan:


Now there is a vaccine available.


At first I was like, how the hell to do make a vaccine for a bacterial infection? Then I looked it up, and the "vaccine" that has been approved is Levaquin. Levaquin is an anitbiotic...lol? Levaquin isn't even a new antibiotic.

A bit more googling, and it appears that the entire idea that a vaccine exists for the plague was started by a defense contractor capitalizing on the post-9/11 anti-terror defense programs. In fact the entire "plague vaccination" entry in wikipedia is copied from a single 5 page "paper" by a defense contractor. http://www.nri.org/projects/ratzooman/docs/plague%2 0vaccination.pdf


Quoting pottery:

Any ideas ??


Yeah start by drafting a master plan a global plan and get to work. The graphs are pretty and the debates are funny but it's time to get to work. Nea that spider web graph was very pretty but how did that graph stop AGW?
From NY Times:

Roughly 70 percent of the nation’s homes are powered through private, investor-owned utilities, which are allowed to earn a set profit on their investments, normally through the rates they charge customers. But government-owned utilities, most of them formed 50 to 100 years ago, are nonprofit entities that do not answer to shareholders. They have access to tax-exempt financing for their projects, they do not pay federal income tax and they tend to pay their executives salaries that are on par with government levels, rather than higher corporate rates.

That financial structure can help municipal utilities supply cheaper electricity. According to data from the federal Energy Information Administration, municipal utilities over all offer cheaper residential electricity than private ones — not including electric cooperatives, federal utilities or power marketers — a difference that holds true in 32 of the 48 states where both exist. In addition, they can plow more of their revenue back into maintenance and prevention, which can result in more reliable service and faster restorations after power failures.

In Massachusetts after Hurricane Irene in 2011, for instance, municipal utilities in some of the hardest-hit areas were able to restore power in one or two days, while investor-owned companies like NStar and National Grid took roughly a week for some customers. According to an advocacy group called Massachusetts Alliance for Municipal Electric Choice, government-owned utilities on average employ more linemen per 10,000 customers than the private companies.

More from that new paper posted earlier (it's so long)..blaming that recent change in airborne fraction & rate of ocean uptake of CO2 on the change of coal burning & such in China & India (both amount & amount of sulfur & such).



A decrease in land use emissions during the past decade (Harris et al 2012) could contribute to the decreasing airborne fraction in figure 3, although Malhi (2010) presents evidence that tropical forest deforestation and regrowth are approximately in balance, within uncertainties. Land use change can be only a partial explanation for the decrease of the airborne fraction; something more than land use change seems to be occurring.

We suggest that the huge post-2000 increase of uptake by the carbon sinks implied by figure 3 is related to the simultaneous sharp increase in coal use (figure 1). Increased coal use occurred primarily in China and India (Boden et al 2012; BP 2012; see graphs at www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Emissions/Emis_moreFigs/) . Satellite radiance measurements for July–December, months when desert dust does not dominate aerosol amount, yield an increase of aerosol optical depth in East Asia of about 4% yr-1 during 2000–2006 (van Donkelaar et al 2008). Associated gaseous and particulate emissions increased rapidly after 2000 in China and India (Lu et al 2011, Tian et al 2010). Some decrease of the sulfur component of emissions occurred in China after 2006 as wide application of flue-gas desulfurization began to be initiated (Lu et al 2010), but this was largely offset by continuing emission increases from India (Lu et al 2011).

We suggest that the surge of fossil fuel use, mainly coal, since 2000 is a basic cause of the large increase of carbon uptake by the combined terrestrial and ocean carbon sinks. One mechanism by which fossil fuel emissions increase carbon uptake is by fertilizing the biosphere via provision of nutrients essential for tissue building, especially nitrogen, which plays a critical role in controlling net primary productivity and is limited in many ecosystems (Gruber and Galloway 2008). Modeling (e.g., Thornton et al 2009) and field studies (Magnani et al 2007) confirm a major role of nitrogen deposition, working in concert with CO2 fertilization, in causing a large increase in net primary productivity of temperate and boreal forests. Sulfate aerosols from coal burning also might increase carbon uptake by increasing the proportion of diffuse insolation, as noted above for Pinatubo aerosols, even though the total solar radiation reaching the surface is reduced.
Gonna Bug Out Early Today. Just scanned the news and see that North Korea trying to cause a stir. On a weather related note, here is where North Korea stood last Fall during typhoon season:

The Associated Press Posted: Aug 30, 2012 7:39 AM ET

Twin typhoons are renewing fears of a humanitarian crisis in North Korea, where poor drainage, widespread deforestation and crumbling infrastructure can turn even a routine rainstorm into a catastrophic flood.

Typhoon Bolaven struck the North on Tuesday and Wednesday, submerging houses and roads, ruining thousands of acres of crops and triggering landslides that buried train tracks. A second major storm, Typhoon Tembin, pounded the Korean Peninsula with more rains on Thursday.

........Because the North annually struggles to produce enough food from its rocky, mountainous landscape to feed its 24 million people, a poorly timed natural disaster can easily tip the country into crisis, like the famine in the 1990s that followed a similar succession of devastating storms.


What's going on right now over there is like a scene from Orwell's 1984......Diverting attention away from domestic issues by perpetrating a foreign enemy. Wonder if they will start firing rockets at the sky the next time a typhoon approaches or claim that the typhoon was the result of weather manipulation by the West.

On that note, good day and good night and may the good news be yours...............

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST FRI MAR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS
NAGUABO
LUQUILLO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 256 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER EL YUNQUE IS NOW ALSO FLOODING AREAS
IN RIO GRANDE AND LUQUILLO. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THAT
HIGHWAY 191 IS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE WHERE THE RIO SANTO ESPIRITU
CROSSES IT. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THIS
AREA. HEADWATERS OF RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NAGUABO AND CANOVANAS ARE
ALSO RECEIVING SOME OF THESE RAINS AND WILL SEND WATERS DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD INHABITED AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1840 6575 1839 6575 1833 6578 1826 6579
1830 6588 1843 6587

$$

SNELL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
1137. pottery
Quoting allahgore:


well you always have someone in the bull pen ready and willing to continue to keep the curve balls going your way. Do we just sit and cry about AGW? or do we do something about it?

Good point.
And there are loads of people doing things about it, in all kinds of ways.
One of the big problems with that is the FACT that there are also loads of people who happily accept that AGW is just a whimsical concept and that there is nothing to worry about.

So, to try to convince those folk, people post graphs and other visual things in the hope that more people will understand the problem and that those people will bring more pressure to bear on politicians, industry and the like.

The changing of lightbulbs is not the solution, as you know.
Quoting pottery:

Good point.
And there are loads of people doing things about it, in all kinds of ways.
One of the big problems with that is the FACT that there are also loads of people who happily accept that AGW is just a whimsical concept and that there is nothing to worry about.

So, to try to convince those folk, people post graphs and other visual things in the hope that more people will understand the problem and that those people will bring more pressure to bear on politicians, industry and the like.

The changing of lightbulbs is not the solution, as you know.


Show me the master plan, I don't care if it's in a graph. Freelancing get's you where?
1139. pottery
Quoting allahgore:


Yeah start by drafting a master plan a global plan and get to work. The graphs are pretty and the debates are funny but it's time to get to work. Nea that spider web graph was very pretty but how did that graph stop AGW?


This will require a majority of the people to demand it.
In many countries, there is already a majority of the population demanding action.
The US is not one of those countries, unfortunately. Nor are China and India incidentally, but those 2 are working on options anyway.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Gonna Bug Out Early Today. Just scanned the news and see that North Korea trying to cause a stir. On a weather related note, here is where North Korea stood last Fall during typhoon season:

The Associated Press Posted: Aug 30, 2012 7:39 AM ET

Twin typhoons are renewing fears of a humanitarian crisis in North Korea, where poor drainage, widespread deforestation and crumbling infrastructure can turn even a routine rainstorm into a catastrophic flood.

Typhoon Bolaven struck the North on Tuesday and Wednesday, submerging houses and roads, ruining thousands of acres of crops and triggering landslides that buried train tracks. A second major storm, Typhoon Tembin, pounded the Korean Peninsula with more rains on Thursday.

........Because the North annually struggles to produce enough food from its rocky, mountainous landscape to feed its 24 million people, a poorly timed natural disaster can easily tip the country into crisis, like the famine in the 1990s that followed a similar succession of devastating storms.


What's going on right now over there is like a scene from Orwell's 1984......Diverting attention away from domestic issues by perpetuating a foreign enemy. Wonder if they will start firing rockets at the sky the next time a typhoon approaches or claim that the typhoon was the result of weather manipulation by the West.

On that note, good day and good night and may the good news be yours...............



there just dancing puffing out there chests



they should end the war before the war ends them

we have become so smart we are stupid
Quoting kwgirl:
Fleas on rats.


Little known fact: plague was introduced into North America from Asian ships in the early part of the last century. It is now endemic in many western US states: Link

The reason human plague was so deadly to Europe in the dark ages was due to population density and no knowledge of antibiotics or germ theory, and due to a mutation in the bacterium itself:Link

Link

Fascinating stuff, considering we still do not have dependable, safe drugs to control virus infection. The next pandemic is only a mutation away...
Yes,more rain to come this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI MAR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP LAYER LOW WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED A LOW TO MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COVERING MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS...MONA PASSAGE AND MOST OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRUJILLO ALTO AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO
SINCE MIDNIGHT. OTHER AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO SUCH AS
BARCELONETA AND ISABELA RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 INCHES. GLOBAL WEATHER
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY WHILE DISSIPATES.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RELOCATE NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY
RETURN TO THE ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY...PRODUCING
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ALL TAF SITES XCP TJPS AND
TKPK AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ALSO
TJBQ MAY REMAIN IFR BEYOND 30/02Z. SHRA AND OVC CONDS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS TO REMAIN THRU 30/22Z. LLVL WIND NE TO E 5-10 KT TO
FL050 INCR TO FL100 LATE TODAY. WIND ABV FL100 W INCR WITH HGT.
WINDS AT 40 KFT UP TO 60 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
6 AND 8 FEET IN THE NEAR-SHORE BUOYS SINCE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SEAS HAVE DROPPED AROUND 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT THE OUTER BUOY
41043. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...SEAS MAY
REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET AFTER SATURDAY...DUE TO AN INCOMING NORTH
SWELL THAT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. THIS MODERATE SWELL MAY BRING
THE SEAS NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 75 83 / 60 60 60 60
STT 74 82 74 85 / 40 60 70 70
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
How the hell did Weather Channel Desktop get on my computer? I didn't intentionally download that. That means it's MALWARE!
1145. pottery
Quoting allahgore:


Show me the master plan, I don't care if it's in a graph. Freelancing get's you where?

Well, OK.

There is no Master Plan.
The issue is much too complex for that.

But there are ongoing International discussions that aim to come up with some kind of "cap" on National emissions like co2 and so on.

But these discussions are obviously meaningless until all the parties are committed to the same thing. And every Nation has it's own Agenda, naturally. (every individual does too, by the way).

I dont see a solution in sight.
Your idea of adapting to the conditions is a natural survival instinct.
It's good advice, too.

The strong will survive.
(not the Armed. The Strong)
2013 hurricane season looks very interesting. most of the factors that create an active season are slowly coming together. if one has to look at past years, 1966 and 2004 seasons are somewhat similar to conditions that now exits now for the 2013 season. don't be surprise to have an early july start to storms originating from actve tropical waves in the deep tropics. I expect 18 named storms 11 of which will be hurricanes, with 3 majors. that number could increase depending how the gomex and nw Caribbean regions.
NHC has released its 2012 forecast verification report, a document describing the accuracy of both its official track and intensity forecasts, as well as that of the numerical guidance models. In the Atlantic basin, the NHC official forecast set new accuracy records at all time periods except 120 h. Although NHC official intensity errors were also smaller than normal, this was mostly due to the season's storms being relatively easy to forecast.

The full report can be found at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verific ation_2012.pdf
1116 allahgore: AGW is a curveball; life is full of curveballs. The best thing is to learn how to hit a homerun when a curveball is thrown your way.

Problem is, GlobalWeirding is a breaking knuckleball. All ya can do is learn when the probability of the ball crossing the plate is high enough that its better to take a random swing into the general region through which it might pass than to let that possible strike pass.
And hope that your swing has been within the timeframe in which ball contact is possible.
Even then the likelyhood is far higher that you'll have embarrassed yourself by whiffing at a ball far outside of the strike zone than that you'll have hit a homerun.

I realize this is an old post, but this sentiment is truly ridiculous. In respect to the formation of our stabilized climate, the proposed thirty or forty year data sample is too, like the 1998 date just a cherry picked number. We could look back over the last 1,000 or 2,000 years and could see a pattern of cooling.
Why is it that you can predict weather scientifically, but insist on predicting climate based on your politics?
1152. azucas
The post is misnamed because it seeks to deny simple data that is congruent between several satellite groups which clearly indicate that the lower troposphere has not warmed much, if at all since 1997. It takes no statistical manipulation to see this. Lower tropospheric temperatures increased rapidly from 1975 to 1997. Elaborate models were built that extrapolated this trend. But the atmosphere has not validated the models. The dramatic change in trend in raw data about 1997 is crystal clear. It is you, Mr. Masters, who would use statistical sophistry.