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Modest Midwest drought improvements, limited major flooding expected this spring

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on March 22, 2013

Springtime is the rainy season in the Midwest U.S., and spring rains this year are expected to put a modest dent in the most intense areas of drought in America's heartland over the next three months, according to NOAA's latest March 21 Seasonal Drought Outlook. The forecast calls for much of Nebraska and Kansas to see improvements in the fierce drought, though drought is expected to expand southwestwards to include nearly all of California, Texas, and Arizona. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought remained unchanged this week at 52%, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report. A winter-like storm that will track from Colorado eastwards during the next few days will dump 0.5" - 1" of precipitation across some of the most hard-hit drought areas of the Midwest, though these regions generally need 3 - 9" of precipitation to end the drought. It's a good bet that drought will cause over $10 billion in U.S. agricultural losses for the third consecutive year this year.


Figure 1. It's getting to be a familiar sight: the weekly Drought Monitor showing a widespread area of significant drought over the majority of the U.S. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Predicted 7-day precipitation for the period ending Friday, March 29. Portions of the U.S. drought region from Colorado to MIssouri are predicted to receive as much as 1" of precipitation. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 3. The amount of precipitation needed to bring the contiguous U.S. out of long-term drought conditions (raise the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) above -0.5) shows that the core drought region in the Midwest needs 3 - 9 inches of precipitation to end the drought. The hydrological impacts of a drought, such as reservoir levels, groundwater levels, etc., take longer to develop and it takes longer to recover from them. Image credit: NOAA.

Major spring flooding expected to be confined to North Dakota and Minnesota
NOAA issued their annual spring flood risk forecast on Thursday, which calls for just one area of concern for major flooding, along the Red River of the North and Souris River in North Dakota and Minnesota. These areas experienced major to record flooding two years ago in the spring of 2011. Normal levels of minor to moderate spring flooding are expected in the middle Mississippi River and lower Missouri River basins, including portions of Kansas, Missouri, eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee. A heavy snowpack farther to the north over the Upper Mississippi River basin may cause more spring flooding than normal, if a sudden arrival of spring occurs, and the snowpack melts off quickly and the ground stays frozen, increasing runoff. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model calls for a continuation of a winter-like pattern for the eastern half of the U.S., with no quick warm-up expected for the Upper Mississippi River basin during the next ten days. The winter-like spring conditions have not been popular out east, where Michael Gmoser, a prosecutor for Butler County, Ohio, demanded that the famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, be held accountable for his poor February 2 forecast of just three more weeks of winter. I think the fruit growers of Ohio and neighboring states will not be on board with this idea, as last year's week of 80°+ heat in March and subsequent frosts ruined local fruit crops, and this year's cold March guarantees a good fruit crop in 2013. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a comparison of just how remarkably different March 2012 and March 2013 have been.



A late-breaking development:

A Pennsylvania law firm has announced it will be defending Phil, writing: Please be advised that Nurick Law Group, LLC proudly represents the interests of Phil Sowerby, a/k/a “Punxsutawney Phil Sowerby” a/k/a “Punxsutawney Phil” (hereinafter “Punxsutawney Phil”) his predecessors and progeny, for the purposes of this preposterous prosecution and persecution. Punxsutawney Phil provides (primarily Pennsylvanians) preeminent prognostication predicated on the position of his shadow."

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Drought Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

RE 1000 TropicsWeather:

Thanks for the update. Here I've been begging for rain for over a month now and find myself hoping for none on Tuesday as I have relatives coming in on a ship for the day! Such is life...

Lindy
For West Palm Beach...Nice cool week ahead...

1003. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Looks messy and dangerous this am..







1004. icmoore
a href=" photo WUNIDS_map-7_zps75bb2acf.gif" target="_blank">

Good morning everybody. Heads up if you're are in the path of the storms.
1005. VR46L
So much energy and moisture ...

1006. pcola57
Tallahassee NexRad radar..




Charleston,SC NexRad..

1007. pcola57
Quoting VR46L: RE: Post#1005
So much energy and moisture ...



Good Morning VR46L..
Lots of systems moving along and nothing standing still..
Changing of the seasons..
1008. pcola57
Looks like another blustery day for you VR46L and our other friends over the pond..



1009. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning VR46L..
Lots of systems moving along and nothing standing still..
Changing of the seasons..


Good Morning !

Sure hope so ... it almost seems as though 6 storms have been running around the mid lats since Christmas .. But I notice Africa is feeding already...
1010. pcola57
Plenty of Lows lined up on the African Continent..

1011. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:
Looks like another blustery day for you VR46L and our other friends over the pond..





Yep still horrrible....and is to continue

1012. pcola57
Quoting VR46L: RE: Post#1011


Yep still horrrible....and is to continue



Blame some of it on Christian.. :)

1013. pcola57
Hmmm...
I'm unable to post images from Sat24..
VR46L Is there a secret to it??
1014. LargoFl
storms getting closer,local mets think around noon here.
1015. LargoFl
1016. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:
Hmmm...
I'm unable to post images from Sat24..
VR46L Is there a secret to it??


This is the link I use :)BTW you got mail

Link
1017. LargoFl
gee bet there's damage here, tree's down etc........
... Wind Advisory in effect until 7 PM EDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect until 7 PM EDT this evening.

* Timing... late this morning through the afternoon hours.

* Winds... sustained southwest winds 20 to 25 mph along with
frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater will occur over South
Florida late this morning through the afternoon hours.

* Impacts... these strong winds will blow loose objects around and
can make high speed travel on highways... bridges and overpasses for
high profile vehicles difficult. These conditions will also make
boating on Inland Lakes and waterways very dangerous.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 30 mph
with gusts over 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make
driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use
extra caution. Make sure to secure loose objects as they can be
blown around by winds this strong.
1019. LargoFl

TORNADO WATCH 63 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA

DIXIE JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
MADISON TAYLOR

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS
COLQUITT COOK IRWIN
LANIER LOWNDES THOMAS
TIFT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ADEL...CROSS CITY...FITZGERALD...
GREENVILLE...LAKELAND...MADISON...MAYO...MIDWAY.. .MONTICELLO...
MOULTRIE...NASHVILLE...OCILLA...PERRY...QUITMAN.. .SPARKS...
THOMASVILLE...TIFTON AND VALDOSTA.

$$
1020. LargoFl
Dangerous weather today florida..heed your local warnings.........................THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD REACH VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES BETWEEN NOON
AND 200 PM...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA...REACHING MARTIN COUNTY
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 600-800 PM. THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AS THEY APPROACH AREAS NORTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE
CANAVERAL. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS...QUARTER-SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORMS WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY TOWARD
THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 50 MPH. AS THE LINE OF STORMS DROPS
SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LESSEN.
WHILE DAMAGING WEATHER IS LESS LIKELY FOR THIS AREA...A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

REMAIN ALERT TO THE CHANGING WEATHER TODAY AND HAVE A PLAN TO MOVE TO
A SAFE INDOORS LOCATION IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS. ENSURE THAT YOU
HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WEATHER UPDATES...AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS. WITH THE VERY RAPID STORM MOTION
TODAY...PREPARATION TIMES WILL BE MINIMAL...PLAN AHEAD.

&&
Quoting LargoFl:
storms getting closer,local mets think around noon here.



Let's see:

Neurontin, check
Blood pressure and fluid medicine, check
Cholesterol medicine, check
Aspirin, check
Multi-Vitamin, check
Xanax (yesterday), check
Only 32 yrs old, check

Oh, oh this is a weather blog.

Let's see, weather relevant. Aha.

Trivia:

When was the last time the state of Georgia had a direct hurricane landfall on the Atlantic (since they don't have a Gulf coast border anyway).
1022. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. POTENTIAL HAZARDS
INCLUDE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL... ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT AND THUS SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY BEING NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

...LAKE WIND IMPACT...
A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL SETUP TODAY. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES
WILL CREATE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON LARGER AREA LAKES WHICH COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGE TO...OR FLIP...SMALL PLEASURE CRAFT AND THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
1023. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
916 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

FLZ020-022-023-GAZ132-149-150-162>164-241400-
ATKINSON-BAKER-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-EC HOLS-HAMILTON-WARE-
916 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WARE...
ATKINSON...CLINCH...SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE...ECHOLS...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN BAKER...NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON
AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

AT 917 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DU PONT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND DU PONT...HOMERVILLE...ARGYLE...COGDELL...MANOR...
MILLWOOD...NEEDHAM...EMERSON PARK AND WARESBORO THROUGH 1000 AM EDT.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
1024. LargoFl
we might get some great rain out of this system....
1025. LargoFl
1026. LargoFl
1027. pcola57
Quoting LargoFl:


Looks like we here are in the clear Largo..
Everyone East/ North/ West of me got it yesterday and looking like today as well..
We only got .09 of precip yesterday and a trace this am..
Everything went around us..
1028. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
we might get some great rain out of this system....


I hope you do largo but its got alot of dry air to make it through

Quoting pcola57:


Looks like we here are in the clear Largo..
Everyone East/ North/ West of me got it yesterday and looking like today as well..
We only got .09 of precip yesterday and a trace this am..
Everything went around us..


Right there with you Pcola just a few sprinkles here... That's three busts in a row for us
1030. pcola57
Quoting WDEmobmet: Post#1029


Right there with you Pcola just a few sprinkles here... That's three busts in a row for us


Yeah WDE..
Looks like we might be in line for real trouble this TC as we're not getting precip like we should..
Mother Nature making adjustments ..
Weird year so far.. :(
1031. Grothar
1032. Grothar
Quoting Grothar:
Gro you already know how I feel about this.lol.
1034. Grothar
Quoting RTSplayer:



Let's see:

Neurontin, check
Blood pressure and fluid medicine, check
Cholesterol medicine, check
Aspirin, check
Multi-Vitamin, check
Xanax (yesterday), check
Only 32 yrs old, check

Oh, oh this is a weather blog.

Let's see, weather relevant. Aha.

Trivia:

When was the last time the state of Georgia had a direct hurricane landfall on the Atlantic (since they don't have a Gulf coast border anyway).



1035. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
Gro you already know how I feel about this.lol.


LOL. I sure do Washi. Here's hoping you get at least 6-8 inches.
Good morning everybody!

The first round of snow is slowly approaching. Should be here in Kings Mills, OH in a couple minutes. A few inches (1"-3") of snow could accumulate with this round.


The next, and most significant round of snow will arrive here later this evening bringing 3-5 inches of snow.
1037. Grothar
The ESPI has turned positive and that hasn't occured in recent months.

March 24 ESPI Data at 0.02
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. I sure do Washi. Here's hoping you get at least 6-8 inches.
After this the local mets see this below average pattern breaking.So this will be winters last hurrah.
Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!

The first round of snow is slowly approaching. Should be here in Kings Mills, OH in a couple minutes. A few inches (1"-3") of snow could accumulate with this round.


The next, and most significant round of snow will arrive here later this evening bringing 3-5 inches of snow.


wow, that is some heavy snow, high snow rates possible...
_______

Good morning everyone
Over 2" for DC, 4-6" for NJ and 5" around of NYC

Wash115...I know how you feel about this...
Quoting washingtonian115:
After this the local mets see this below average pattern breaking.So this will be winters last hurrah.






looks like a quick warm shot followed by one more cool down not over yet wash but soon
1043. hydrus
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






looks like a quick warm shot followed by one more cool down not over yet wash but soon
Tucker lied!.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


wow, that is some heavy snow, high snow rates possible...
_______

Good morning everyone

Good morning Max! Yeah, that line of extremely heavy snow moving into Cincinnati right now will probably drop a quick 2 maybe 3 inches of snow throughout the area.
1046. hydrus
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Over 2" for DC, 4-6" for NJ and 5" around of NYC

Wash115...I know how you feel about this...


Too bad he needs too learn too deal with it that is how the weather works
extreme snow band going through Cincinnati, OH

Quoting LargoFl:
we might get some great rain out of this system....
You're kidding, right? All of the thunderstorms within the prefrontal trough are falling apart, and there is really no forcing mechanis to speak of to keep even the moderate showers going. By the time the trough makes it to our area, we'll have some scattered light showers around and nearly no chance of lightning, unfortunately.
Quoting pcola57:


Yeah WDE..
Looks like we might be in line for real trouble this TC as we're not getting precip like we should..
Mother Nature making adjustments ..
Weird year so far.. :(


You read my mind Pcola, was thinking the same thing. Brought back memories of Issac still a couple days out when several models had him hitting Cat 3-4, most memorable was WFMR ( or whatever) pulling into mobile bay with 144mph sustained. Sent chills down my back as I looked at all the massive oaks and pine trees surrounding my house. Don't want anything like that but a good Cat 1 I'm all down for ;)
Normal 72 °F 47 °F



Two more warm days then normal or slightly below. 77.6 yesterday. 55.8 now...
Nice Temp Keeper,

Toronto Pearson, CA (Airport)
Updated: 11:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2013
Scattered Clouds
34 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 23 °F
Wind: 2 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.00 in (Steady)
Visibility: 15.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2700 ft
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 568 ft
Nino 3 and part of 3.4 is warming thanks to this very warm pool rising to the surface. Will this warmup be temporary or it has legs?

The GFS been pretty consistent on a situation like this for the last few runs now:

Link

It's also calling for almost the exact same path the NAM predicted a few days ago (dances slowly up the NJ coast before drifting out to sea):

Link

The aforementioned NAM run called for over a foot of snow more Central and Eastern PA, though. Not sure if that's going to happen though, especially in northern PA where the most models call for a streak of warm air to be pushed in from the Atlantic. Southern PA though has been put in almost continuous snow with low 30 temperatures, though. It'll mostly depend on the moisture the storm brings and how spread out it is. The DOOOOOOM NAM runs had both more precipitation and a larger area of it than this last GFS model. If Southern PA, Southern NJ, Maryland and Delaware want those high totals, then moisture seems to be the magic word right now.
1056. Thrawst
.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...Nice cool week ahead...

Very windy day today Geoffrey.... Not a good fishing day... Go Buckeyes
Quoting PedleyCA:
Nice Temp Keeper,

Toronto Pearson, CA (Airport)
Updated: 11:00 AM EDT on March 24, 2013
Scattered Clouds
34 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 23 °F
Wind: 2 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.00 in (Steady)
Visibility: 15.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2700 ft
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 568 ft


ya i don't know how much more of normal i can take

)
..WANTED..

for giving false information
1060. Grothar
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Very windy day today Geoffrey.... Not a good fishing day... Go Buckeyes


It is windy on the coast here today. I usually don't post these advisories, because they take up too much space and are usually boring.

Issued by The National Weather Service
Miami, FL
Sun, Mar 24, 2013, 8:39 AMEDT
Local Radar Map
Updated Mar 24, 2013, 12:05pm EDT
Weather in Motion® | Enlarge Map
Get WeatherReady

Tips for Driving in Windy Weather
Driving Safety Tips
Interstate Driving Maps
Get Live Traffic Reports
Check the Latest Driving Forecast (video)

... WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING... LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* WINDS... SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR GREATER WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS... THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW LOOSE OBJECTS AROUND AND CAN MAKE HIGH SPEED TRAVEL ON HIGHWAYS... BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MAKE BOATING ON INLAND LAKES AND WATERWAYS VERY DANGEROUS.
1061. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ya i don't know how much more of normal i can take

)


Just stay on the blog a little bit more. That should take care of it.
1062. LargoFl
Very windy here and quite warm for march............
1063. LargoFl
1064. LargoFl
.NOW...
STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE MATERIALIZED WELL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SQUALL LINE IS
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AROUND MID
DAY...THEN CONTINUE TO LESSEN FURTHER IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE LINE DROPS SOUTH TO ORLANDO...SANFORD...ST. CLOUD...CAPE
CANAVERAL AND PALM BAY DURING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL
MOVE VERY RAPIDLY AT AROUND 50 MPH AND A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

PLAN AHEAD AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR
AREA.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The ESPI has turned positive and that hasn't occured in recent months.

March 24 ESPI Data at 0.02


I checked it the other day & it was nearly positive.. It's really pointing to a warming of ENSO.
1066. LargoFl
Tampa bay area,heed your local warnings..stay safe folks....................SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. POTENTIAL HAZARDS
INCLUDE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL... ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
..WANTED..

for giving false information



He been right for CA lol nic spring time weather
1068. LargoFl
1069. LargoFl
yes some area's ARE getting great rains..........
1070. LargoFl
NAM has changed, Squall line weaker than predicted yesterday as it moves southward down florida..yesterday it was solid yellow and mean looking..not so today..which is..good news huh
Quoting Skyepony:


I checked it the other day & it was nearly positive.. It's really pointing to a warming of ENSO.


The big question is if this warmup is of brief duration or will continue down the road.
1072. LargoFl
1073. LargoFl
1074. LargoFl
1075. VR46L
Ya know this east coast monster that is predicted....look at how its expected to turn out by the GFS




Sigh sigh sigh
1076. LargoFl
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 5 PM
CDT TODAY...

...FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY...


.NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WILL
START TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. IF YOU HAVE TEMPERATURE-SENSITIVE
PLANTS...YOU WILL NEED TO BRING THEM INDOORS OR COVER THEM WITH
PROTECTIVE MATERIALS.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
..WANTED..

for giving false information


he has been indicted (fraud/felony agains the peace and dignity of the state of Ohio....requesting death penalty as consequence.

Nothing is going to happen to PA's Phil, he has defense as well. I support him!
1078. LargoFl
Monday cold and stormy around DC huh........
Latest snowmap for Virgil's path... Note the MidAtlantic and NYC area amounts, a very tricky thing to come up with.
The high terrains of the Appalachians in TN/NC/KY are expected to get over 8", rain/snow mix for low levels with minor snowfall

click image for larger size
Spring! Where are you hiding!? :-(
1081. LargoFl
I scanned a global weather site yesterday and it said as long as that High sits over greenland, the cold artic air will flow into the usa..could be right because winter is sure hanging around longer than it should normally huh.
1082. LargoFl
still humid and warm here, guess that changes tomorrow.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
..WANTED..

for giving false information

"I'm a cowboy, on a steel horse I ride"
1084. LargoFl
1085. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
I scanned a global weather site yesterday and it said as long as that High sits over greenland, the cold artic air will flow into the usa..could be right because winter is sure hanging around longer than it should normally huh.


Largo See 1075 Chart image ... It looks to me like the greenland high days are growing numbered Here at 240 hrs

1086. LargoFl
Quoting VR46L:


Largo See 1075 Chart image ... It looks to me like the greenland high days are growing numbered Here at 240 hrs

thats good news, we need spring to take hold here lol
1087. LargoFl
1089. LargoFl
more warnings on the east coast than west coast,stay safe...SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1233 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-241830-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1233 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.NOW...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. WHILE THE SQUALL LINE
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON APPROACH TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...A FEW RAPIDLY MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS AREAS NORTH OF ORLANDO AND COCOA BEACH THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX WINDS OF 50 TO
60 MPH DOWN TO THE GROUND.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY IMPACT OSCEOLA...BREVARD...AND INDIAN
RIVER COUNTIES FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOST OR ALL OF
THE RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALONG THE LINE BEFORE REACHING
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

&&
1090. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
thats good news, we need spring to take hold here lol


Well I suspect a storm that is expected to span the entire Mid latitudes of the north Atlantic would shrink it in size ..
I wouldnt count out a big DC snowstorm.

GFS still says 6"

1092. LargoFl
Thundering to my north..................
Quoting PedleyCA:
wanted dead or alive

original
Glad you did the original Ped... The Ritchie one ,not so much.
1094. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I wouldnt count out a big DC snowstorm.

GFS still says 6"



It all depends on where all the energy that is all heading in that direction meet

1095. Grothar
A little bit of trivia.

1578 entries since the word "agenda" has been used.......
Quoting Grothar:
A little bit of trivia.

1578 entries since the word "agenda" has been used.......
Lorne Greene, Bonanza...Did I win Alex ?
Quoting Grothar:
A little bit of trivia.

1578 entries since the word "agenda" has been used.......



but now you used it.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



but now you used it.
1759 I guess
1100. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
A little bit of trivia.

1578 entries since the word "agenda" has been used.......
There were seven cones with gear boxes. Carburetors and coral and bulbs, but no tens.
Quoting hydrus:
There were seven cones with gear boxes. Carburetors and coral and bulbs, but no tens.
You took the words right out of my mouth hydrus...
Quoting Slamguitar:


Michigan is not a place I would like to be slam.... I'll take south Florida
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Michigan is not a place I would like to be slam.... I'll take south Florida


I'd take Michigan 9 out of 12 months. ;)

It's a beautiful place to live come springtime... If that ever happens, ha.
Quoting Slamguitar:


I'd take Michigan 9 out of 12 months. ;)

It's a beautiful place to live come springtime... If that ever happens, ha.
Slam... I agree.... Have friends in North Muskegon... If it wasn't for the cold I could live there... Been salmon fishing in White Lake area and Ludington... Beautiful ,but the cold sucks...
1106. hydrus
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
You took the words right out of my mouth hydrus...
I had the psychic dome over Florida and netted your thoughts, then reported them promptly on the blog.
Quoting hydrus:
I had the psychic dome over Florida and netted your thoughts, then reported them promptly on the blog.
I certainly hope so hydrus...I was feeling a bit dizzy... Thanks for clearing that up... Whew!!
Quoting hydrus:
I had the psychic dome over Florida and netted your thoughts, then reported them promptly on the blog.
Speaking of domes.... Jon Bon Jovi sure is a hunk..
Quoting Slamguitar:


I'd take Michigan 9 out of 12 months. ;)

It's a beautiful place to live come springtime... If that ever happens, ha.
Slam... I remember making a place in North Muskegon my waypoint... Bear Lake Tavern... Wonder if it is still there.? I think, I think I left my keys there... Maybe yes, Maybe no
1110. LargoFl
Omg..just look at that lightning just north of me......
1111. LargoFl
storms are turning severe folks, heed your warnings..stay safe.............SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC053-101-119-241845-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0005.130324T1755Z-130324T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
155 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SUMTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
HERNANDO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT.

* AT 152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GARDEN GROVE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF BROOKSVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ZEPHYRHILLS...DADE CITY...BUSHNELL...WILDWOOD...THE VILLAGES...SAN
ANTONIO...CRYSTAL SPRINGS...LAKE LINDSEY...ZEPHYRHILLS MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...DADE CITY NORTH...ISTACHATTA...LACOOCHEE...RIDGE MANOR...
WAHOO...THE GREEN SWAMP...RUTLAND...TARRYTOWN...SUMTERVILLE...
ADAMSVILLE AND LAKE PANASOFFKEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Slam... I agree.... Have friends in North Muskegon... If it wasn't for the cold I could live there... Been salmon fishing in White Lake area and Ludington... Beautiful ,but the cold sucks...


that's what I say...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Slam... I remember making a place in North Muskegon my waypoint... Bear Lake Tavern... Wonder if it is still there.? I think, I think I left my keys there... Maybe yes, Maybe no


Still there! Although I can't guarantee the same for your keys...
1114. LargoFl
winds getting stronger...............
1115. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
Omg..just look at that lightning just north of me......


Stay Safe Largo...

But it looks like the Tampa Shield might be up...



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that's what I say...


If it wasn't for those large puddles around Michigan we would be much colder in the winter.
1117. hydrus
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Speaking of domes.... Jon Bon Jovi sure is a hunk..
I was always partial to Sharon Stone..:)
1118. LargoFl
Zephyerhills you folks ok?.................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

FLC053-101-119-241845-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130324T1845Z/
SUMTER FL-PASCO FL-HERNANDO FL-
207 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR HERNANDO...PASCO AND SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

AT 206 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THE GREEN
SWAMP...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF GROVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 275 AND 314.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
1119. LargoFl
Quoting VR46L:


Stay Safe Largo...

But it looks like the Tampa Shield might be up...



boy i sure hope so but that line is sinking southward,getting closer and continuous lightning is really dangerous..my dogs are at my feet shaking..they know its coming
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I wouldnt count out a big DC snowstorm.

GFS still says 6"


...

I'm ready for whatever it brings, if it brings anything...

BRING ON LE SNOW!
1121. hydrus
Infrequent double ITCZ in the Pacific:


1123. LargoFl
tons of warnings out now..............A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN POLK
COUNTY FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR ROCKRIDGE...OR 16 MILES EAST OF DADE
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH WILL AFFECT POLK CITY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS
LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR TO YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.
1124. LargoFl
in midstate also around Orlando etc.......
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

The National Weather Service In Melbourne Has Issued A

Severe Thunderstorm Warning For... Southwestern Lake County In Florida Western Orange County In Florida

Until 230 P.M. EDT.

At 155 P.M. EDT...National Weather Service Meteorologists Detected A Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing Destructive Winds In Excess Of 70 Mph. This Storm Was Located 8 Miles Southwest Of Mascotte...And Moving East At 55 Mph.

Other Locations In The Warning Include...But Are Not Limited To... Groveland...Clermont...Lake Louisa...Ferndale...Oakland...Horizon West...Lake Apopka...Bay Lake...Winter Garden...Windermere...Bay Hill...Ocoee...Doctor Phillips...Sea World...Wet N Wild Water Park...Universal Studios...Orlovista And Pine Hills Precautionary/Preparedness Actions... Severe Thunderstorms Produce Damaging Winds In Excess Of 58 Miles An Hour And Or Large Destructive Hail. Frequent To Excessive Lightning And Very Heavy Rain Will Also Be Possible. If The Storm Approaches You...Seek Shelter In An Enclosed Building On The Lowest Floor. Keep Away From Windows.


Wind Advisory
1125. Grothar
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Lorne Greene, Bonanza...Did I win Alex ?


You can come back for the semi-finals
Tornado warning Disney Orlando area..
1127. LargoFl
Quoting Skyepony:
Tornado warning Disney Orlando area..
yes this is getting bad now..
Arnold Palmer Golf tournament is delayed from this cell. Expected to get hit.
1129. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
FLC069-095-241845-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0003.130324T1814Z-130324T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
214 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FERNDALE...
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER GARDEN...WINDERMERE...PINE
HILLS...OCOEE...OAK RIDGE...LAKE APOPKA...APOPKA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT.

* AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAKE
LOUISA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OAKLAND...HORIZON WEST...BAY HILL...DOCTOR PHILLIPS...UNIVERSAL
STUDIOS...WET N WILD WATER PARK AND ORLOVISTA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&
TORNADO WARNING
FLC069-095-241845-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0003.130324T1814Z-130324T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
214 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FERNDALE...
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER GARDEN...WINDERMERE...PINE
HILLS...OCOEE...OAK RIDGE...LAKE APOPKA...APOPKA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT.

* AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAKE
LOUISA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OAKLAND...HORIZON WEST...BAY HILL...DOCTOR PHILLIPS...UNIVERSAL
STUDIOS...WET N WILD WATER PARK AND ORLOVISTA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2871 8148 2843 8140 2835 8179 2836 8180
2855 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 264DEG 60KT 2847 8172

$$

SPRATT
1131. LargoFl
orlando..get ready almost on you.....
The reason for the severe cells over Florida is due to large amounts of instability over the state from daytime heating in combination with cold air aloft.

Evidently, surface instability is nearing a minimum or non-existent just offshore over the Tampa Bay area, thus the reason for the convection cutting off in the gulf. Furthermore, upper level support is nearly completely gone now, therefore the only thing proving lift for thunderstorms is mesoscale features like the diurnal cycle.

Sadly that means the Tampa Bay area is going to mostly miss out on this one, at least the area picked up 1 to 2 inches of rain on Friday night for many residents.









1133. LargoFl
geez orlando is getting Blasted..........
Went just north of Disney..the shield holds..


Central FL Lightning summary so far for the day. This cell is putting out alot if lightning..


Lightning/2000 v5.4.2 Summary (Sunday, March 24, 2013 at 2:26:37 PM EDT)

Since midnight (866.6 mins.):
Total strokes: 85,892 (avg. 99.1/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 55,334 - 64.4% (avg. 63.9/min.)
+IC: 35,005 - 63.3% (avg. 40.4/min.)
-IC: 20,329 - 36.7% (avg. 23.5/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 28,627 - 33.3% (avg. 33.0/min.)
+CG: 6944 - 24.3% (avg. 8.0/min.)
-CG: 21,683 - 75.7% (avg. 25.0/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 970 - 1.1% (avg. 1.1/min.)

Total flashes: 25,847 (avg. 29.8/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 14,464 (avg. 16.7/min.)
+CG flashes: 2470 (avg. 2.9/min.)
-CG flashes: 11,994 (avg. 13.8/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 10,413 (avg. 12.0/min.)
+IC flashes: 6747 (avg. 7.8/min.)
-IC flashes: 3666 (avg. 4.2/min.)
1135. LargoFl
..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS APPROACHING THE WINDERMERE AREA
SOUTH OF WINTER GARDEN...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OCOEE...BAY HILL...APOPKA...DOCTOR PHILLIPS...CLARCONA...UNIVERSAL
STUDIOS...WET N WILD WATER PARK...ORLOVISTA...PINE HILLS...TANGELO
PARK AND OAK RIDGE.
1136. LargoFl
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR HERNANDO...PASCO AND SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

AT 216 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES EAST OF CENTER HILL TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE GREEN SWAMP TO NEW PORT RICHEY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WINTER GARDEN TO 14 MILES NORTH OF AUBURNDALE TO NEW PORT RICHEY...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 275 AND 314.
Universal Studies, Wet & wild, Downtown Orlando. This is expected to be rain wrapped & hard to see.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
223 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

FLC069-095-241845-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130324T1845Z/
ORANGE-LAKE-
223 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS APPROACHING THE WINDERMERE AREA
SOUTH OF WINTER GARDEN...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OCOEE...BAY HILL...APOPKA...DOCTOR PHILLIPS...CLARCONA...UNIVERSAL
STUDIOS...WET N WILD WATER PARK...ORLOVISTA...PINE HILLS...TANGELO
PARK AND OAK RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2871 8148 2843 8140 2835 8179 2836 8180
2855 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 267DEG 50KT 2847 8159

$$

DWS



The warning has been extended, hopefully this isn't a sign of serious tornado event from that cell.
1139. LargoFl
gee the east coast of florida had better stay real alert, this is moving towards the east coastline ..stay safe over there
1140. Grothar
Quoting LargoFl:
gee the east coast of florida had better stay real alert, this is moving towards the east coastline ..stay safe over there


I've already had some asphalt roofing blow off the barn this morning from the relentless hot, high winds in front of all this.
1142. Grothar
TORNADO WARNING
FLC095-241900-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0004.130324T1829Z-130324T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
229 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER GARDEN...WINDERMERE...PINE
HILLS...ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...ORLANDO...OCOEE...OAK
RIDGE...CONWAY...COLLEGE PARK...AZALEA PARK...AVALON PARK...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.

* AT 228 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
WINDERMERE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
UNIVERSAL STUDIOS...WET N WILD WATER PARK...SEA WORLD...PINE
CASTLE...BELLE ISLE...ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND LAKE NONA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 2860 8158 2854 8112 2835 8112 2835 8117
2842 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 277DEG 51KT 2850 8148

$$

SPRATT
1144. LargoFl
folks you can see where this is heading..........
Live shots on TV on NBC of the storms moving thru Orlando, at the Arnold Palmer Golf Championships.
1146. LargoFl
Quoting Skyepony:


I've already had some asphalt roofing blow off the barn this morning from the relentless hot, high winds in front of all this.
oh boy stay safe over there, winds are strong by me too and im still south of the line
I definitely would not discount something being on the ground.

1148. LargoFl
oh this is not good.....................
1149. LargoFl
1150. LargoFl
Looks like 2 tornado warned area's...........
229 PM EDT sun Mar 24 2013

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a * Tornado Warning for...
central Orange County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Winter Garden...Windermere...Pine Hills... Orlando International Airport... Orlando...Ocoee...Oak Ridge... Conway...College Park...Azalea Park...Avalon Park...

* until 300 PM EDT.

* At 228 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Windermere...moving east at 55 mph.

From WUground Severe Weather
Looks to be headed your way Skye!
Or maybe a bit north more toward Cocoa and Titusville...
1152. LargoFl
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 65 TO 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR UNIVERSAL
STUDIOS...NEAR WINDERMERE...NEAR ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...AND
SANFORD....MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
ORLANDO AND OVIEDO.

QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN CLERMONT.
If the threat of a tornado isn't a big deal, the winds in association with this squall sure as heck are. 70-80 mph winds are probably being put down right now all across central Florida, which explains all the reports of widespread tree damage.

1154. LargoFl
1155. barbamz
Sunny sunday in Germany today - and I'm glad I don't live in the Ukraine right now. Record snow over there!

Emergency declared in Kiev cold snap
24/03 04:56 CET

While there has been heavy snow in parts of Europe including the UK, in Kiev it has been so bad that a state of emergency has been declared.

One month's normal snow, which is about half-a- metre, has covered the Ukrainian capital in just 24-hours.

The army has been brought into action to try and help clear the roads.

"Trolleybuses, trams and taxis are stuck, people have to walk, it takes 2-3 hours to get somewhere. The streets are blocked so the snow ploughs can't get anywhere, the city is paralyzed," said one brave soul who had ventured outside.

For most it is a struggle to get cars movin, but dozens of volunteers across the city have teamed up to see what they can do. "We decided to drive out into the city and help people. We've already managed to help several ambulances and almost 20 cars," said one volunteer.

Our very cold reporter in Kiev, Angelina Kariakina said the weather forecast is for more snow over the next 2-3 days.


Source - including a video (english).

And here is a youtube raw video:


Hope you all enjoy your day!
1156. LargoFl
That was just a fun 10 minutes in downtown Orlando. Strong gusts and a few very too close lightning strikes.
1158. LargoFl
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SUMTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
HERNANDO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT.

* AT 234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
WEST OF SAN ANTONIO...OR 11 MILES WEST OF DADE CITY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DADE
CITY NORTH...LACOOCHEE...RIDGE MANOR...TARRYTOWN AND THE GREEN
SWAMP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&
1159. LargoFl
Quoting Naga5000:
That was just a fun 10 minutes in downtown Orlando. Strong gusts and a few very too close lightning strikes.
whew radar is showing tons of lightning there..stay safe ok
Quoting LargoFl:
whew radar is showing tons of lightning there..stay safe ok


Worst is over with I think, just some distant rumbles. That leading edge of the storm was vicious though.
1161. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
251 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

FLC095-241900-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130324T1900Z/
ORANGE-
251 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AVALON
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WAS HEADING TOWARD THE MORE RURAL PARTS OF THE COUNTY
NORTH OF 528...BUT RURAL RESIDENTS ARE TO TAKE COVER.

SINCE 2 PM...LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED IN CLERMONT. NUMEROUS
TREES HAVE BEEN REPORTED DOWN JUST SOUTH OF WINDERMERE WITH POWER
OUTAGES. THE ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT ALSO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO NEAR 63 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.
1162. LargoFl
1163. LargoFl
Numerous tree's down and power outages,guess that can be expected with these bad storm.
1164. LargoFl
.NOW...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING OVER AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY
NEAR HUDSON...SPRING HILL...DADE CITY AND THROUGH THE GREEN SWAMP.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND SHIFT SOUTH
AROUND THE NORTHERN TAMPA BAY AREA INCLUDING PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH
AND POLK COUNTIES. THE STORM WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

$$
1165. LargoFl
@wxbrad 23s
86 mph wind gust reported at the ASOS at the Orlando Airport. #flwx
1167. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-095-241915-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0005.130324T1849Z-130324T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
249 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TITUSVILLE AIRPORT...SHARPES...PORT
SAINT JOHN...PORT CANAVERAL...MERRITT ISLAND...COCOA...CAPE
CANAVERAL...
EAST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEDGEFIELD...CHRISTMAS...BITHLO...
AVALON PARK...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.

* AT 247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR AVALON
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CANAVERAL GROVES AND JETTY PARK

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
Tons of lightening, hail and sideways rain a while ago at my house just west and north of Disney. Very squally now.
1169. LargoFl
Quoting NHCaddict:
Tons of lightening, hail and sideways rain a while at my house just west and north of Disney. Very squally now.
wow i cant believe how powerful this storm is..stay safe over there.
1170. LargoFl
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC009-095-097-117-127-242000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0004.130324T1903Z-130324T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
303 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT.

* AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH EAST ORANGE COUNTY TOWARD TITUSVILLE...CAPE
CANAVERAL...COCOA...AND ROCKLEDGE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...SCOTTSMOOR...CANAVERAL GROVES...MIMS...
TITUSVILLE...TITUSVILLE AIRPORT...PORT SAINT JOHN...SHARPES...
COCOA...ROCKLEDGE...HAULOVER CANAL...VIERA...SUNTREE...MERRITT
ISLAND...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE...
KLONDIKE BEACH...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...COCOA BEACH...PLAYALINDA
BEACH...CAPE CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&
1171. LargoFl
warnings right to the east coastline now
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

FLC009-095-241915-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130324T1915Z/
ORANGE-BREVARD-
308 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
BREVARD AND EAST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CANAVERAL
GROVES...OR NEAR PORT SAINT JOHN...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THE
TITUSVILLE AREA IS ALSO AT GREAT RISK!

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TITUSVILLE AIRPORT...BELLWOOD...SHARPES...COCOA...MERRITT ISLAND...
PORT CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND CAPE CANAVERAL

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL...WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT OF TORNADOES! TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2834 8060 2835 8063 2836 8064
2837 8062 2840 8063 2840 8065 2835 8065
2841 8128 2859 8126 2857 8079 2854 8077
2854 8074 2857 8072 2856 8056 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 274DEG 57KT 2846 8084

$$

DWS
1173. Thrawst
12z GFS has continuously hinted at several episodes of severe weather across the mid United States in the 10-12 day range. Things will change but at least there is some consistency in the runs of a potential clash of airmasses.



1174. VR46L
Gulf of Mexico GOES Atmospheric Imagery

Infrared Imagery


1175. ADCS
I'm in Largo right now, and I didn't see any major wind or storm, but those clouds sure are moving fast.
Quoting hydrus:
I was always partial to Sharon Stone..:)
Loved "Quick and the dead" My kinda cult movie
Cocoa Beach, Merritt Island, KSC, Cape Canaveral~ Tornado Warning.
About to move over KSC, Titusville, and Merritt Island.
1 Degree from breaking the record of 91 degrees here in West palm beach,FL. While tuesday and wednesday may have record breaking cold....wow I've never seen that before.
TORNADO WARNING
FLC009-241945-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0006.130324T1918Z-130324T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
318 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ROCKLEDGE...PORT CANAVERAL...MERRITT
ISLAND...COCOA BEACH...CAPE CANAVERAL...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 2843 8057 2840 8059 2830 8060 2832 8070
2833 8070 2832 8071 2832 8074 2837 8072
2850 8071 2849 8063 2841 8065 2843 8061
2849 8061 2848 8053 2845 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 278DEG 87KT 2840 8062

$$

SPRATT
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
1 Degree from breaking the record of 91 degrees here in West palm beach,FL. While tuesday and wednesday may have record breaking cold....wow I've never seen that before.
I see you are an OWL fan ... Howard is a great friend
That tornado vorticity is right on the KSC solar panel field.
Quoting Skyepony:
Cocoa Beach, Merritt Island, KSC, Cape Canaveral~ Tornado Warning.
SkyePony... I have always admired how you keep your composures with the many jerks (including myself) that post non-weather topics... You are great.
BTW, the squall line that came through here in Tallahassee was pretty strong, but I don't think it was a strong as anticipated and I doubt the warnings verified. I had the core of the warned cell move over me this morning and it was a strong thunderstorm don't get me wrong, plenty of lightning and heavy rain, but wind gusts maxed around 35 to 40 mph and I didn't see any hail.

I'm not too surprised as the atmosphere was just too worked over from several rounds of heavy thunderstorms yesterday into the evening without a hint of sun or heating. Surface CAPE only reached 500 J/KG with the squall line so that explains a lot. If we had gotten the instability seen over Central Florida today it would have been scary as Helicity over the TLH area this morning was around 500 to 600 and bulk shear 50 to 70 kts.
Looks like the possible tornado is going to pass just south of SLC-40, the SpaceX Falcon 9 pad. Right ontop of the old Mercury and Gemini pads from the space race.
Jedkins..Don't make me come over there
Well it will take time to find out if there was any tornado, but the thunderstorm cell that went throughout Orlando outside of the meso produced an 86 mph gust officially at Orlando international and 62 mph at Orlando executive. Widespread wind damage is being reported in Pasco county as well.

This is per SPC reports so far.


1840 86 ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL A ORANGE FL 2842 8132 KMCO ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 75 KT/86 MPH FROM 300 DRGREES. (MLB)
1841 62 ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPO ORANGE FL 2855 8134 KORL ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 54KT/62 MPH FROM 290 DEGREES. (MLB)
Interesting snowfall map for my area:



Usually, snowfall is heavier either NW of Philly or SE, depending upon the storm track. With this system, it's heavier in both directions.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Jedkins..Don't make me come over there



Why? lol
And it's strange that there are no advisories posted yet for this area. I guess they are waiting for more model confidence before picking a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Watch for different areas. I heard a forecast of 6-10 inches out in Coatesville, but no advisory for western Chester County yet.
The floridians are out in full force attack mode now!.Awwwww!.
Spring Hill in Hernando reported 2 inches of rain in about 40 minutes.
1193. LargoFl
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BUSHNELL

HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL

PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DADE CITY...HUDSON...NEW PORT
RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS


* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 159 PM EDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING
2 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ADVISED AREA. THE HERNANDO COUNTY AIRPORT REPORTED ALMOST AN INCH
OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR.
Classic Tampa Shield.
1195. LargoFl
..................sarasota and ft Meyers area might be our next trouble spot later on..................
TWC gives me 8-12" I dont think that'll happen
1197. LargoFl
another line developing down by Sarasota..........
What a crazy pic:



What kind of maroon schedules a World Cup qualifying soccer match in Colorado in March?

Must be some kind of overly-fervent AGW believer. :^)


They had to switch to a yellow-and-purple ball so they could see it in the snow.
1199. LargoFl
maybe more to come tonite,the front isnt here yet.....
Adivsories just went up:

1201. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
..................sarasota and ft Meyers area might be our next trouble spot later on..................


Largo there is hail possibilities off shore for Sarasota Noting yet for Ft Myers area
1202. LargoFl
Quoting VR46L:


Largo there is hail possibilities off shore for Sarasota Noting yet for Ft Myers area
ok thanks
1203. LargoFl
check out the lightning south of tampa..storms building?..
1204. LargoFl
well outside of solid overcast and real gusty winds,so far everything bad is missing my area..a long night ahead though as the front gets closer.
Finally started to rain here, on & off. Haven't heard much thunder. Lightning luckily has let up.. We were up to 85,000 strikes total when I posted this earlier..now..wow.

Lightning/2000 v5.4.2 Summary (Sunday, March 24, 2013 at 3:41:37 PM EDT)

Since midnight (941.6 mins.):
Total strokes: 148,648 (avg. 157.9/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 106,167 - 71.4% (avg. 112.7/min.)
+IC: 68,068 - 64.1% (avg. 72.3/min.)
-IC: 38,099 - 35.9% (avg. 40.5/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 39,104 - 26.3% (avg. 41.5/min.)
+CG: 11,889 - 30.4% (avg. 12.6/min.)
-CG: 27,215 - 69.6% (avg. 28.9/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 1830 - 1.2% (avg. 1.9/min.)

Total flashes: 34,968 (avg. 37.1/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 17,171 (avg. 18.2/min.)
+CG flashes: 3763 (avg. 4.0/min.)
-CG flashes: 13,408 (avg. 14.2/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 15,967 (avg. 17.0/min.)
+IC flashes: 10,795 (avg. 11.5/min.)
-IC flashes: 5172 (avg. 5.5/min.)


PalmBeachWeather~ Thanks.. It usually all entertains me somehow, I don't mind a little. Usually the blog will call an end to it (like during an event) before I would have.

1206. LargoFl
still offshore..............
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL...
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL...
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM...
INCLUDING CAPTIVA...DON PEDRO ISLAND...GASPARILLA ISLAND...LONGBOAT
KEY...LONGBOAT PASS...MANASOTA KEY...NEW PASS...SARASOTA BAY...
SIESTA KEY AND VENICE INLET...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 352 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
FROM 14 NM EAST OF NEW PASS TO 77 NM SOUTHWEST OF SIESTA KEY...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.
1207. VR46L
Some cells off shore

1208. LargoFl
DONT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN JUST YET ORLANDO ETC..............SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

FLZ045-047-053-147-242100-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER BREVARD COUNTY...ORANGE COUNTY...OSCEOLA
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ORANGE...
BREVARD...AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AROUND
50 MPH DUE TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN 1000 FEET OF GROUND LEVEL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MIXING THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2860 8166 2863 8060 2846 8052 2838 8059
2821 8059 2807 8055 2786 8044 2786 8046
2791 8050 2787 8049 2783 8050 2784 8128
2806 8145 2802 8138 2808 8135 2808 8145
2814 8146 2815 8153 2825 8156 2826 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 180DEG 0KT 2838 8082

$$



BRAGAW
1210. VR46L
1211. LargoFl
Quoting VR46L:
Some cells off shore

YES and this line of storms will be encountering almost record breaking heat in south florida...hope its not as bad as that central florida line of storms as the next few hours go by.
So while the freezing bout of weather wacks the UK and a lot more as well to be sure. The statemnet of:-
" I'm looking overthe white cliffs of Dover," falls a bit by the way side as even more of that famous white chalk stuff plunged into the sea recently. Heres the link:=

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/section-of-white-cliffs -collapses

Aparently the freezing rain had penitrated the chalk stuff and then froze more and they all fell down, (or at least some of them,) a bit like the grand old duke of York and his 10,000 men in the song, At this rate the cliffs will be worthless underwater hard core ballast in a hundred years.
There are a few limp wristed excuses for all this though not to be even considered let alone belived by those who see the world in a state of flux.
Evening everybody, Cold and raining again in Southern Spain where we have now had about 10 times more rain than in a normal winter and its Easter processions time but most of them wont be coming out due to downpours.
At least we have 2 popes!
1213. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

FLZ045-047-053-147-242100-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
355 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER BREVARD COUNTY...ORANGE COUNTY...OSCEOLA
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ORANGE...
BREVARD...AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AROUND
50 MPH DUE TO VERY STRONG WINDS WITHIN 1000 FEET OF GROUND LEVEL.
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MIXING THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2860 8166 2863 8060 2846 8052 2838 8059
2821 8059 2807 8055 2786 8044 2786 8046
2791 8050 2787 8049 2783 8050 2784 8128
2806 8145 2802 8138 2808 8135 2808 8145
2814 8146 2815 8153 2825 8156 2826 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 180DEG 0KT 2838 8082

$$



BRAGAW
A wet day in my area on Oahu today:

1215. LargoFl
1217. LargoFl
.NOW...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXITED THE REGION EAST OF POLK COUNTY
LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG THE
GULF COAST JUST WEST OF SARASOTA AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN
BRADENTON AND VENICE. EXPECT ROUGH SEAS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WINDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ESPECIALLY FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO
OSPREY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

$$

TD
Those storms that blew through Orlando had wind gusts as high as 86mph, as recorded at the international airport. Two wind damage reports in Lake and Brevard counties were reported as possible tornadoes.
1219. LargoFl
.NOW...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXITED THE REGION EAST OF POLK COUNTY
LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG THE
GULF COAST JUST WEST OF SARASOTA AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN
BRADENTON AND VENICE. EXPECT ROUGH SEAS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WINDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ESPECIALLY FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO
OSPREY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

$$

TD
1220. intampa
looks like tampa gets skunked by the rain. its all going north and then building south... nothing in the bay area and we really could use this.
1221. LargoFl
Quoting intampa:
looks like tampa gets skunked by the rain. its all going north and then building south... nothing in the bay area and we really could use this.
yeah we did get skunked with the rains, thought for sure this morning we would get some
1222. LargoFl
south florida below tampa Heed your local warnings ....
Quoting Skyepony:
Finally started to rain here, on & off. Haven't heard much thunder. Lightning luckily has let up.. We were up to 85,000 strikes total when I posted this earlier..now..wow.

Lightning/2000 v5.4.2 Summary (Sunday, March 24, 2013 at 3:41:37 PM EDT)

Since midnight (941.6 mins.):
Total strokes: 148,648 (avg. 157.9/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 106,167 - 71.4% (avg. 112.7/min.)
+IC: 68,068 - 64.1% (avg. 72.3/min.)
-IC: 38,099 - 35.9% (avg. 40.5/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 39,104 - 26.3% (avg. 41.5/min.)
+CG: 11,889 - 30.4% (avg. 12.6/min.)
-CG: 27,215 - 69.6% (avg. 28.9/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 1830 - 1.2% (avg. 1.9/min.)

Total flashes: 34,968 (avg. 37.1/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 17,171 (avg. 18.2/min.)
+CG flashes: 3763 (avg. 4.0/min.)
-CG flashes: 13,408 (avg. 14.2/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 15,967 (avg. 17.0/min.)
+IC flashes: 10,795 (avg. 11.5/min.)
-IC flashes: 5172 (avg. 5.5/min.)


PalmBeachWeather~ Thanks.. It usually all entertains me somehow, I don't mind a little. Usually the blog will call an end to it (like during an event) before I would have.



That is a lot of lightning, wow...
1224. LargoFl
1225. VR46L
Recent Modis Image Gulf of Mexico


1226. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Looks like a pretty intense thunderstorm, and it looks like part of that roof below got displaced!
1228. LargoFl
folks in WPB etc, I'd be keeping a good eye on this southern florida line, its building in intensity and its moving eastward
1229. LargoFl
The golf play at Bay Hill was postponed until Monday at 10 AM EDT.
1231. VR46L
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The golf play at Bay Hill was postponed until Monday at 10 AM EDT.


No surprising, with all that lightning and wind around!
1232. LargoFl
Heat index for South florida...................
As I mentioned Friday, this didn't look like it would be a very big event. Seems like something is always lacking in these systems so far and big severe outbreaks are thankfully being limited. It is unfortunate that Central Florida is currently experiencing some bad stuff, however. Hopefully the damage is limited there. Zero tornadoes reported yet again with this system. Let's hope our luck can continue throughout spring. It was only 6 weeks ago to the day when this hit my city. Still can't believe no one died.

1234. JNCali
Snow tonight!
1235. VR46L
Quoting MississippiWx:
As I mentioned Friday, this didn't look like it would be a very big event. Seems like something is always lacking in these systems so far and big severe outbreaks are thankfully being limited. It is unfortunate that Central Florida is currently experiencing some bad stuff, however. Hopefully the damage is limited there. Zero tornadoes reported yet again with this system. Let's hope our luck can continue throughout spring. It was only 6 weeks ago to the day when this hit my city. Still can't believe no one died.



I dont know about that ,parts of LA,MS, AL, NE Florida and south GA all got some nasty hail and wind .. and today central Florida had a very nasty outbreak .. To my mind it was pretty widespread and severe .
1236. LargoFl
well cooler temps on the way for a few days..........
Quoting MississippiWx:
As I mentioned Friday, this didn't look like it would be a very big event. Seems like something is always lacking in these systems so far and big severe outbreaks are thankfully being limited. It is unfortunate that Central Florida is currently experiencing some bad stuff, however. Hopefully the damage is limited there. Zero tornadoes reported yet again with this system. Let's hope our luck can continue throughout spring. It was only 6 weeks ago to the day when this hit my city. Still can't believe no one died.


Unfortunately, I don't see our luck holding much longer. The next week or so will be very quiet, really non-existent, for severe weather, but then I think things will really ramp up. First major threat comes April 3-5.
Quoting VR46L:


I dont know about that ,parts of LA,MS, AL, NE Florida and south GA all got some nasty hail and wind .. and today central Florida had a very nasty outbreak .. To my mind it was pretty widespread and severe .


Yes, there have been a few spots that got it bad, but this is a very minor event relative to what it could have been had a few more parameters lined up. It's always bad enough if it hits you. :-) I was just saying that I'm thankful it wasn't any worse.
1239. bappit
Some chilly air blowing in behind the front today and tonight here in southeast Texas. Things have really cooled off and the gusty winds make it feel worse. It might get close to freezing tonight what with all the advection. Winds aren't supposed to calm down until late Monday evening. Then we might get a tad closer to freezing. Whole lot of cooling going on for late March.
so a little rain and wind in fla huh

dying out now

1241. LargoFl
Hailstones by hwy 50 earler................
1242. LargoFl
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Unfortunately, I don't see our luck holding much longer. The next week or so will be very quiet, really non-existent, for severe weather, but then I think things will really ramp up. First major threat comes April 3-5.


Probably. The true Gulf airmasses haven't been able to work their way into these systems lately because strong cold fronts have pushed the airmasses too far south. It takes too long for the return flow to get the adequate fuel where it needs to be. Wind fields haven't exactly been adequate either. GFS has been fairly consistent on a severe event unfolding sometime next weekend and after. My birthday is April 14th and it seems there is always a severe weather outbreak around that time. We even had one last year when it was a relatively quiet severe weather (tornado) season.
1244. LargoFl
Quoting MississippiWx:
As I mentioned Friday, this didn't look like it would be a very big event. Seems like something is always lacking in these systems so far and big severe outbreaks are thankfully being limited. It is unfortunate that Central Florida is currently experiencing some bad stuff, however. Hopefully the damage is limited there. Zero tornadoes reported yet again with this system. Let's hope our luck can continue throughout spring. It was only 6 weeks ago to the day when this hit my city. Still can't believe no one died.


Maybe the fact that nobody died during the Hattiesburg tornado is a very good sign. After 2011's Super Outbreak, people from the southern states may have become much better prepared when it comes to tornadoes, like getting weather radios,or taking every warning seriously.
1246. LargoFl
1247. LargoFl
well thats it for me, have a safe night everyone
East coast of Florida setting records today.....

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT MIAMI TODAY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES WAS TIED AT MIAMI TODAY.
THE OLD RECORD WAS SET IN 1897.



...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT VERO BEACH...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES WAS SET AT VERO BEACH
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1952.



...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT MELBOURNE...

A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES WAS SET AT MELBOURNE
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 90 SET IN 1994...1982...1975
AND 1974.
1250. VR46L
Quoting Ameister12:

Maybe the fact that nobody died during the Hattiesburg tornado is a very good sign. After 2011's Super Outbreak, people from the southern states may have become much better prepared when it comes to tornadoes, like getting weather radios,or taking every warning seriously.


It would also show the SPC are doing their job well, in educating the public . Its great that less people die in these events and perhaps Europe who only recently started adopting colour coded warnings is taking notice of how the country that gets some of most severe both warm and cold events handled these incidences .

BBC severe weather story with reference to 2 deaths due to weather
Quoting MississippiWx:


Probably. The true Gulf airmasses haven't been able to work their way into these systems lately because strong cold fronts have pushed the airmasses too far south. It takes too long for the return flow to get the adequate fuel where it needs to be. Wind fields haven't exactly been adequate either. GFS has been fairly consistent on a severe event unfolding sometime next weekend and after. My birthday is April 14th and it seems there is always a severe weather outbreak around that time. We even had one last year when it was a relatively quiet severe weather (tornado) season.

Quite a bit of severe weather has occurred on April 14. I think May 22 still has you beat though.

* May 22, 2012 had a tornado in Mississippi that caused considerable damage even though it was an EF0.
* May 22, 2011 featured, of course, the Joplin EF5. Not much has to be said about that.
* May 22, 2010 is the day of the EF4 Bowdle, South Dakota tornado that flattened many buildings and homes. It also is the first day of a multi-day outbreak that featured the Yazoo City, MS tornado.
* May 22, 2009 is the day that an EF2 tornado struck California, the strongest there in over a decade.
* May 22, 2008 is the start of a multi-day outbreak that featured the Parkersburg IA EF5 tornado.

And so on...
Why are they giving names to snow storms etc. Does it have anything to do with insurance companies and their anti consumer laws?
Quoting MississippiWx:
As I mentioned Friday, this didn't look like it would be a very big event. Seems like something is always lacking in these systems so far and big severe outbreaks are thankfully being limited. It is unfortunate that Central Florida is currently experiencing some bad stuff, however. Hopefully the damage is limited there. Zero tornadoes reported yet again with this system. Let's hope our luck can continue throughout spring. It was only 6 weeks ago to the day when this hit my city. Still can't believe no one died.




Props to you, I thought it was going to be at least a bit worse than it has, not enough surface instability yet again in the deep south into north Florida, which is good news really.

BTW, Central Florida had the surface instability today which lacked in other regions. The severe in Central Florida could have actually been much worse if upper support was greater. The models actually had greater upper support over Central Florida with more widespread rain coverage but way underestimated how unstable it would get over the landmass( CAPE 3000 to 5000).

Its good news in this case for Central Florida, accept that most places didn't see the beneficial rains needed other than the places impacted by the strong thunderstorms. Something I've noticed since really going back to November is that every frontal system hat enters Florida has trended with the upper support and lift completely exiting offshore before the frontal zone moves across the Peninsula. This happen sometimes. However typically there is a at least a couple low pressure systems each month that bring widespread beneficial rains even though it is the dry season. This time around, every single frontal system including this one has collapsed upon entering the Florida region.

Also the models consistently have failed to anticipate this happening beyond the 24 to 48 hour period. Just 4 days ago models had this system bringing soaking rains widespread of 2 to 4 inches across Central Florida, yet look at the real result.

I've seen this same thing happen time and time again the last several months.


Of course, the drought is even worse in the plains, its scary up there how stubborn the dry weather pattern has been.
1255. VR46L
Nasty line emerging North Of Fort Myers .. event doesn't seem done yet

Quoting Jedkins01:



Props to you, I thought it was going to be a bit worse than this, not enough surface instability yet again in the deep south into north Florida, which is good news really.

BTW, Central Florida had the surface instability today which lacked in other regions. The severe in Central Florida could have actually been much worse if upper support was greater. The models had greater upper support over Central Florida way underestimated surface instability.

Its good news in this case for Central Florida, accept that most places didn't see the beneficial rains needed other than the places impacted by the strong thunderstorms. Something I've noticed since really going back to November is that every frontal system hat enters Florida has trended with the upper support and lift completely exiting offshore before the frontal zone moves across the Peninsula. This always happens sometimes. However typically there is a at least a couple low pressure systems each month that bring widespread beneficial rains even though it is the dry season. This time around, every single frontal system including this one has collapsed upon entering the Florida region.

Also the models consistently have failed to anticipate this happening beyond the 24 to 48 hour period. Just 4 days ago models had this system bringing soaking rains widespread of 2 to 4 inches across Central Florida, yet look at the real result.

I've seen this same thing happen time and time again the last several months.


Of course, the drought is even worse in the plains, its scary up there how stubborn the dry weather pattern has been.


Seems Florida has entered the rainy season in a healthy drought pretty often lately. This year it seems to be a little less severe than previous years. The lack of a true El Nino is hurting your chances of winter rains recently. However, it is encouraging that your rainy season typically takes away the drought or at least gets close to it. Also, Florida's luck with dodging hurricanes is bound to come to an end soon.

As far as the Midwest drought goes, I believe that is a direct result of the -PDO pattern. When the PDO flipped to negative, they began having below average rains and it has persisted a while now. The -PDO probably has an effect on Florida rains due to the fact that it attempts to negate the development of El Nino.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Quite a bit of severe weather has occurred on April 14. I think May 22 still has you beat though.

* May 22, 2012 had a tornado in Mississippi that caused considerable damage even though it was an EF0.
* May 22, 2011 featured, of course, the Joplin EF5. Not much has to be said about that.
* May 22, 2010 is the day of the EF4 Bowdle, South Dakota tornado that flattened many buildings and homes. It also is the first day of a multi-day outbreak that featured the Yazoo City, MS tornado.
* May 22, 2009 is the day that an EF2 tornado struck California, the strongest there in over a decade.
* May 22, 2008 is the start of a multi-day outbreak that featured the Parkersburg IA EF5 tornado.

And so on...


I'm guessing your birthday is May 22nd?

By the way, while a tornado might have hit Yazoo City on May 22nd, it was not THE Yazoo tornado that was over a mile wide. That tornado was on April 24, 2010.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Impressive video at Bay Hill Golf Course


That is scary right there. Where did all those people hide.
Quoting PedleyCA:


That is scary right there. Where did all those people hide.


They evacuated all the people,players,press etc well before the storm hit the course.
slightly rebuilding storms

Quoting MississippiWx:


I'm guessing your birthday is May 22nd?

By the way, while a tornado might have hit Yazoo City on May 22nd, it was not THE Yazoo tornado that was over a mile wide. That tornado was on April 24, 2010.

Nah. Just pointing out interesting facts. My birthday is on July 22.
My forecast through Wednesday Night, 60 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. :-O These values are a good 15-20 degrees below average.

Tonight- Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday- Sunny, with a high near 58. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Monday Night- Clear, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday- Sunny, with a high near 57. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night- Clear, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light north northwest in the evening.
Wednesday- Sunny, with a high near 63. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 5 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night- Mostly clear, with a low around 36. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
It is coming!! for me!!:)
I believe we will get nothing here in the city.
1267. VR46L
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It is coming!! for me!!:)


There one or two of the cells that need watching .. one heading towards Port St Lucie looks nasty
MDR/Eastern Atlantic continue to warm well above average. Equatorial Pacific is interesting as well. Certainly a fight between cold and warm anomalies going on.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I believe we will get nothing here in the city.


Based on what happened with the knocking down snowfalls, I'll have to significantly decrease the snowfall for my location and many around us, as well as yours.

I had you up on the low side, 1-3" that was.
It is in the low 80's in SW FL but in WPB it is 90 now this may not be good!
1271. VR46L
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It is in the low 80's in SW FL but in WPB it is 90 now this may not be good!


Very true ! folk in that area need to pay attention ...

and how it interacts going over LAKE OKEECHOBEE too


858
WHUS52 KMFL 242159
SMWMFL
AMZ610-242300-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0008.130324T2159Z-130324T2300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
559 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
LAKE OKEECHOBEE

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 557 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR
GREATER...ABOUT 10 NM NORTHWEST OF CALUSA...MOVING EAST AT 45
KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATER...SEVERE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR
OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER...MAKE SURE ALL SAFETY GEAR IS AVAILABLE AND LIFE JACKETS ARE
BEING WORN BY YOU AND YOUR CREW.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM
UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 2718 8073 2711 8066 2699 8062 2703 8100
2704 8100 2706 8097 2704 8094 2705 8093
2707 8097 2714 8088 2721 8082 2721 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 267DEG 46KT 2711 8118

$$
KONARIK


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Based on what happened with the knocking down snowfalls, I'll have to significantly decrease the snowfall for my location and many around us, as well as yours.

I had you up on the low side, 1-3" that was.
The city creates its own heat.Not unless the snow comes down really hard and fast before the sun comes back up I have a hard time believing these models.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Seems Florida has entered the rainy season in a healthy drought pretty often lately. This year it seems to be a little less severe than previous years. The lack of a true El Nino is hurting your chances of winter rains recently. However, it is encouraging that your rainy season typically takes away the drought or at least gets close to it. Also, Florida's luck with dodging hurricanes is bound to come to an end soon.

As far as the Midwest drought goes, I believe that is a direct result of the -PDO pattern. When the PDO flipped to negative, they began having below average rains and it has persisted a while now. The -PDO probably has an effect on Florida rains due to the fact that it attempts to negate the development of El Nino.


Yeah I noticed that often the same upper level pattern (PDO in this case) that is causing drought in Florida is responsible for drought in the plains, at least for this time of year anyway. That would make sense then.

By the way, yes over the last 3 to 4 years the dry season has been even drier than normal in Florida, often with severe drought by May. This is because the dry season here over a long term average isn't historically as dry as some might think. It's relatively quite dry compared to the rainy season, but average rain is still typically 2.5 to 3.5 inches per month, which is about the same as the "rainy season" in the desert southwest including southern California.


Overall the the difference between seasons has been more extreme. Last year for example, literally most of the Peninsula of Florida had only 5 to 6 inches of rain through May, terribly dry conditions. However most places statewide had yearly totals ranging from 45 to 50 inches in the driest spots to greater than 70 inches in the wettest locales.

Most of that fell from a June to August period. The rain gauge at my house in the Tampa Bay area for example recorded only 4.5 inches through May, but recorded 53 inches of rain from just June through mid October! We saw some really violent thunderstorms last year too, had significant wind damage and lightning damage in my area at least 3 times.

We had so much rain at my house last year during July that at one point we could not driver our cars to do to persistent street flooding for nearly a week even though it typically drains fast due to getting nailed by heavy thunderstorms almost every day.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The city creates its own heat.Not unless the snow comes down really hard and fast before the sun comes back up I have a hard time believing these models.


Tomorrow night is when the biggest snow is expected to fall, some tonight

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Tomorrow night is when the biggest snow is expected to fall, some tonight

I can't see my house from there!.
Wow now a Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Winds Gust up to 32 MPH all day! in WPB


Very nice for the rest of the week in West Palm Beach...

Quoting VR46L:


Very true ! folk in that area need to pay attention ...

and how it interacts going over LAKE OKEECHOBEE too


858
WHUS52 KMFL 242159
SMWMFL
AMZ610-242300-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0008.130324T2159Z-130324T2300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
559 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
LAKE OKEECHOBEE

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 557 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR
GREATER...ABOUT 10 NM NORTHWEST OF CALUSA...MOVING EAST AT 45
KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATER...SEVERE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR
OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER...MAKE SURE ALL SAFETY GEAR IS AVAILABLE AND LIFE JACKETS ARE
BEING WORN BY YOU AND YOUR CREW.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM
UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 2718 8073 2711 8066 2699 8062 2703 8100
2704 8100 2706 8097 2704 8094 2705 8093
2707 8097 2714 8088 2721 8082 2721 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 267DEG 46KT 2711 8118

$$
KONARIK




Lol Marine Warning? How big is Lake Okeechobee? Can you see the other side of it?
1280. VR46L
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow now a Severe Thunderstorm Warning


Yep

WUUS52 KMFL 242230
SVRMFL
FLC043-051-242300-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0003.130324T2230Z-130324T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
630 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BUCKHEAD RIDGE TO 5 MILES WEST OF LAKEPORT TO 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ORTONA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
BRIGHTON SEMINOLE INDIAN...
BUCKHEAD RIDGE...
MOORE HAVEN...
CLEWISTON...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES AND
AVOID WATER. MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE. AVOID
USING THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED.

&&

LAT...LON 2717 8088 2713 8087 2708 8094 2704 8092
2703 8096 2705 8098 2698 8107 2692 8107
2693 8110 2689 8111 2682 8105 2682 8095
2678 8094 2675 8089 2669 8094 2678 8147
2702 8130 2722 8098 2722 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 272DEG 42KT 2718 8089 2698 8119
2684 8131

$$
KONARIK
1283. VR46L
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol Marine Warning? How big is Lake Okeechobee? Can you see the other side of it?


No idea I saw it on the radar ... but there are actually 2 warnings there now...
730 sq miles
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol Marine Warning? How big is Lake Okeechobee? Can you see the other side of it?
Legislation that blocks HomeOwnerAssociations from forbidding drought-resistant landscapes has been passed since that explanatory article was written, and is awaiting the Governor's approval.
And a relatively recent article about a Dallas HistoricalDistrict ignoring its passage.

Can't park the Cadillac inside because the garage is too packed with junk?
No problemo...
29 wide x 35 length
source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Okeechobee
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol Marine Warning? How big is Lake Okeechobee? Can you see the other side of it?
25 miles the shortest way, 35 miles the longest.
So suns up at the North Pole!
Anybody got ideas about the future of the doomed ice this year?
Quoting aspectre:
Can't park the Cadillac inside because the garage is too packed with junk?
No problemo...


Lol.
Quoting PlazaRed:
So suns up at the North Pole!
Anybody got ideas about the future of the doomed ice this year?


Hey Plaza,
How ya doing. My guess is it will be very ugly. Might all melt this year. It can always refreeze but it will be a weak thin mess.
1291. Gearsts
Quoting MississippiWx:
MDR/Eastern Atlantic continue to warm well above average. Equatorial Pacific is interesting as well. Certainly a fight between cold and warm anomalies going on.

Levi Cowan‏@TropicalTidbits4h
We're now fully immersed in new multi-decadal half-period of the PDO. Pretty exciting...havent been here since 1940s. Can someone explain what he means?
Well, the forecast calls for 4 nights below 40 degrees during this upcoming week, Tuesday the forecast is a high of 59 and a low of 32, is it the last week of March in Florida next week or is it the last week of January?


I'm entirely over the cold, and I won't miss it for a long time.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Hey Plaza,
How ya doing. My guess is it will be very ugly. Might all melt this year. It can always refreeze but it will be a weak thin mess.

Yer!
I have to reluctantly agree with you on most of that one.
Not all gone but enough to get an action repaly of last year with maybe an eventful oncore for this one!
Horrible here as the rains continue with lots of problems over the Easter start weekend.
We have a field with a waterfall in the middle of it near my house and I am trying to figure out how to get nearer to take a photo for upload, ther never was even a stream in that field before, its all mud and landslips etc.
Blizzards in the UK with big power cuts and lots of rain etc, Generally nasty start to spring but then again we were expecting at least some of it.
1294. VR46L
Quoting Gearsts:
Levi Cowan‏@TropicalTidbits4h
We're now fully immersed in new multi-decadal half-period of the PDO. Pretty exciting...havent been here since 1940s. Can someone explain what he means?


Not a clue ... Dont understand a lot of weather Jargon ...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It is coming!! for me!!:)


Stormcell J8 just passed over my head....
1296. Grothar
Quoting Gearsts:
Levi Cowan%u200F@TropicalTidbits4h
We're now fully immersed in new multi-decadal half-period of the PDO. Pretty exciting...havent been here since 1940s. Can someone explain what he means?



Probably that he is older than we think.
1297. Gearsts
Quoting Grothar:



Probably that he is probably older than we think.
Older than you?
1298. Grothar
Quoting Gearsts:
Older than you?


Unlikely.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Lol Marine Warning? How big is Lake Okeechobee? Can you see the other side of it?


30 miles plus or minus
1300. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Unlikely.
+ 1000
Quoting washingtonian115:
I believe we will get nothing here in the city.

Same here,

from what happened with the other "snowstorm" I don't believe anything snow related anymore, at least for as long as I live in this area.
1302. pcola57
Current Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream Analysis



Current Southern Hemisphere Jet Stream Analysis

Quoting aspectre:
Legislation that blocks HomeOwnerAssociations from forbidding drought-resistant landscapes has been passed since that explanatory article was written, and is awaiting the Governor's approval.
And a relatively recent article about a Dallas HistoricalDistrict ignoring its passage.

Can't park the Cadillac inside because the garage is too packed with junk?
No problemo...


Wow. I always find it so shocking that a certain aesthetic as held that doesn't make much sense for area. Was a bit of that around Palm Springs as well...even though it's ummm....desert.
That kind of, complete frivolty, really annoys me. Like, waste/gluttony for show = good
Quoting Gearsts:
Older than you?


New around here aincha? :0

Ask him about the "Big Bang" sometime...apparently those first couple nanoseconds were pretty exciting...

House power did a lightning induced "blink" not enough to refresh the 'puter or shut down the tv, BUT, now my dang yahoo mail won't allow me to send. arrgggg...

I wonder if the tunnels can fix that too....



1305. barbamz
I'm heading to bed in Germany, good night. Everybody may have an powerful start to the new week, and hopefully spring will follow this example til Easter.


Berlin, March 24th 2012 and March 24th 2013.
Credit: Thelocal.de

Icy spring sets records for deep freeze
Published: 24 Mar 13 14:34 CET

Siberian temperatures hit areas of northern and eastern Germany over the weekend in what is in places turning out to be the coldest spring on record.
G-night Barb!
1307. Gearsts
Quoting indianrivguy:


New around here aincha? :0

Ask him about the "Big Bang" sometime...apparently those first couple nanoseconds were pretty exciting...

House power did a lightning induced "blink" not enough to refresh the 'puter or shut down the tv, BUT, now my dang yahoo mail won't allow me to send. arrgggg...

I wonder if the tunnels can fix that too....



I been lurking since 2010 and i know that he is a couple of million years old.
1308. barbamz
Quoting pcola57:
Current Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream Analysis


Thanks, really interesting. The current jet is dumping all the northern atlantic moisture right on the head of poor PlazaRed in Spain:


1309. beell
Quoting barbamz:
I'm heading to bed in Germany, good night. Everybody may have an powerful start to the new week, and hopefully spring will follow this example til Easter.


Berlin, March 24th 2012 and March 24th 2013.
Credit: Thelocal.de

Icy spring sets records for deep freeze
Published: 24 Mar 13 14:34 CET

Siberian temperatures hit areas of northern and eastern Germany over the weekend in what is in places turning out to be the coldest spring on record.


Geez, a rough year for the ole girl in the pic...
Quoting Gearsts:
I been lurking since 2010 and i know that he is a couple of million years old.


Sorry Gearsts. I was trying to make a joke and did not mean to question your time here.. I knew you were with the game because of what you said, I was just bumping it along some.. peace.


edit.. OMG 1309. beell 8:10 PM EDT on March 24, 2013
belly laughed, thanks.
I pointed out the anomalous warming of the EPAC nearly two weeks ago, when I uploaded this image




I see others are beginning to pick up on this warming, which has recently been strengthened by the progression of atmospheric kelvin waves across the Pacific and the return of the MJO into the Atlantic. The associated trade wind anomalies with atmospheric kelvin waves and the MJO can allow for some warming of the EPAC but, more imporantly, atmospheric kelvin waves and the progression of the MJO can excite oceanic kelvin waves. It is these oceanic kelvin waves which significantly warm the EPAC.
1313. barbamz
Quoting beell:


Geez, a rough year for the ole girl in the pic...


She obviously really "went to the dog", lol (if this saying is familiar in the US). I'm out, bye!
Quoting barbamz:
I'm heading to bed in Germany, good night. Everybody may have an powerful start to the new week, and hopefully spring will follow this example til Easter.


Berlin, March 24th 2012 and March 24th 2013.
Credit: Thelocal.de

Icy spring sets records for deep freeze
Published: 24 Mar 13 14:34 CET

Siberian temperatures hit areas of northern and eastern Germany over the weekend in what is in places turning out to be the coldest spring on record.


winter will loosen its grip soon enough expect a short spring shot with a jump into summer

pretty much same deal on this side of the pond
I doubt the warming lasts much longer, but it sure did destroy the cool pool that existed.

Edited post 1311 to better explain the warming seen in the epac.
Quoting pcola57:
Current Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream Analysis



Current Southern Hemisphere Jet Stream Analysis

wouldn't be wild to get heat waves from the north
1318. beell
'Night, barbamz. The expression is correct and makes perfect nonsense here!
1319. Grothar
Quoting indianrivguy:


New around here aincha? :0

Ask him about the "Big Bang" sometime...apparently those first couple nanoseconds were pretty exciting...

House power did a lightning induced "blink" not enough to refresh the 'puter or shut down the tv, BUT, now my dang yahoo mail won't allow me to send. arrgggg...

I wonder if the tunnels can fix that too....





Run "error check" then restart your computer.
compare nino/nina regions

Quoting barbamz:
I'm heading to bed in Germany, good night. Everybody may have an powerful start to the new week, and hopefully spring will follow this example til Easter.


Berlin, March 24th 2012 and March 24th 2013.
Credit: Thelocal.de

Icy spring sets records for deep freeze
Published: 24 Mar 13 14:34 CET

Siberian temperatures hit areas of northern and eastern Germany over the weekend in what is in places turning out to be the coldest spring on record.
I liked 2012 a lot better...
Quoting Grothar:


Run "error check" then restart your computer.


what is error check? Thanks.
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Wow. I always find it so shocking that a certain aesthetic as held that doesn't make much sense for area. Was a bit of that around Palm Springs as well...even though it's ummm....desert.
That kind of, complete frivolty, really annoys me. Like, waste/gluttony for show = good
Never underestimate the stupidity of 3,000 tyrants one mile away.
Updating snowfall forecasts...

Although chances for big snow decreased over SW CT/NYC, still using the 3-6" shade on this area, check out the DC area with higher snow amounts to the south since there are reports from Richmond where over 3" have accumulated. Also Take note of Southern New Jersey
For Appalachians, note the possible 2 feet in W/VA and only the high elevations in the southern Appalachians will get what is indicated.


click on image for larger view
1325. Grothar
For educational purposes only. The poster neither endorses nor necessarily agrees with the contents of this material compiled by NASA. Any similarity between persons living or dead is purely coincidental.


img src="">
1326. Grothar
Quoting indianrivguy:


what is error check? Thanks.


Click on your "MY COMPUTER" icon. Right click on your "C" drive. Click the "Tools" tab. Open the
Error Check" Click on the top box ONLY. It will give a message that it cannot perform the check. Click OK.
Shut all your windows and restart your PC.

(and you people thought I was old)
1327. geepy86
Quoting Grothar:


Click on your "MY COMPUTER" icon. Right click on your "C" drive. Click the "Tools" tab. Open the
Error Check" Click on the top box ONLY. It will give a message that it cannot perform the check. Click OK.
Shut all your windows and restart your PC.

(and you people thought I was old)

Not old.....wise
1329. txjac
Quoting AGWcreationists:
I liked 2012 a lot better...


lol ...I think that I am the only one that wants the cool to stay around a bit longer ..
1330. Grothar
Quoting geepy86:

Not old.....wise


Aw shucks!
1331. VR46L
Quoting txjac:


lol ...I think that I am the only one that wants the cool to stay around a bit longer ..


I think your cool is very different to my cool .. about 50°f difference :)

Anyway Good Night, coming up on 1 am here
1332. txjac
Quoting VR46L:


I think your cool is very different to my cool .. about 50°f difference :)

Anyway Good Night, coming up on 1 am here


Night night woman
1333. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:


Aw shucks!


I think the comment 1325 shows how wise you are !!
This year in DC
Link
Indianapolis has received 2.00" of snow in less than 3 hours.
Big wind for much of the southeast
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
compare nino/nina regions



Hope we won't get an EL NINO ...
Quoting CaribBoy:


Hope we won't get an EL NINO ...


It would be good to suppress hurricanes in the Atlantic
Light to moderate showers are still lingering over the island of Oahu in Hawaii:

in other news... by the end of March

we have to monitor possible development far NE of Madagascar, too early to say of there is a cyclone impact risk in the island

Quoting txjac:


lol ...I think that I am the only one that wants the cool to stay around a bit longer ..


Nope, I agree. I love the cool/chilly weather. The storms that came through the Orlando area today were really intense. That was some bow echo.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


It would be good to suppress hurricanes in the Atlantic

Here is what Levi32 says in his latest update about that...

Model Forecasts

Having the ENSO in a neutral state during the spring is rather awkward, as this time of year is a transition period in the ENSO cycle during which the models perform very poorly in predicting its evolution during the coming summer. Perhaps the best model we have is the ECMWF, which forecasts continuing neutral conditions if we take the ensemble mean, but with a slight warming tendency throughout the next several months. ENSO may or may not be a wildcard, as its behavior is too unpredictable in a state like this. My current feeling is that we will see a near-neutral summer, and regardless of whether it is warm or cool biased, the atmosphere has been behaving more like La Nina than El Nino, and thus it will not significantly impact the Atlantic. The important thing is that heat is focused in the tropical Atlantic, such that it is a more favorable place for upward motion than the tropical Pacific. As long as the tropical Atlantic stays warmer, it should win that battle.

Figure 5. ECMWF forecasted Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies (initialized in March 2013).
From NWS Mount Holly, NJ this afternoon:

THE PREDECESSOR AIR MASS IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN THE ONE IN EARLY
MARCH THAT GAVE US FCSTING FITS AND WHILE THE PAPARAZZI CHASES
DYNAMIC COOLING AROUND, EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WHICH ONLY HAS SOME
PERSON WITH A POLAROID WATCHING IT IS ACTUALLY A MORE EFFECTIVE SNOW
PRODUCER.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


It would be good to suppress hurricanes in the Atlantic


Yes but EL NINO also brings lower average rainfall... not too good for us in the islands.
February Total Precipitable Water Anomalies show above average moisture in the Tropical Atlantic. This is good sign for healthy activity in the MDR for the upcoming hurricane season. Dry anomalies are also noted around the Caribbean but this is rather insignificant since it is February and these anomalies are likely a result of the pattern over North America and not within the tropical circulation.

Quoting opal92nwf:

Here is what Levi32 says in his latest update about that...


Thanks for the info, I understand that at this time models don't have a good grip as to where and when transition could take place but if when the hurricane season comes around and we are at this "neutral stage", the conditions could be very good for tropical development as far as this goes, not taking into account SST, SAL etc..

I have to learn much more about this topic btw.
1348. Gearsts
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yes but EL NINO also brings lower average rainfall... not too good for us in the islands.
And we don't like boring weather!
spit watch may be needed for miami stay tune

Quoting CaribBoy:


Yes but EL NINO also brings lower average rainfall... not too good for us in the islands.


sorry about that, yes I know. HOWEVER, during LA NINA, mudslides could be life threatening from the non-stopping rains for central America and parts of the Caribbean during the summer months, I know that for a fact
Quoting Gearsts:
And we don't like boring weather!


+ 1000 !!! :-)
Quoting Gearsts:
And we don't like boring weather!



Yes you do lo,



Dos any one no what day it is it my B day turn 27 today


There is an interesting warm spot NE of the Lesser Antilles.
1354. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:



Yes you do lo,



Dos any one no what day it is it my B day turn 27 today

Hope you had a Fantastic one, Taz.
Happy Birthday, man.
1355. Gearsts
Quoting CaribBoy:


There is an interesting warm spot NE of the Lesser Antilles.
Tell that spot to move a little south.
It gets very dry during the "dry season" (winter time here), if under el Nino, drought could become a major problem since most of the Central American economy is on the coffee industry.

Without enough rain, these plants would not be able to neither produce good fat/juicy coffee berries nor stay healthy.

this kind of job I mean... picking up the red berries.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Updating snowfall forecasts...

Although chances for big snow decreased over SW CT/NYC, still using the 3-6" shade on this area, check out the DC area with higher snow amounts to the south since there are reports from Richmond where over 3" have accumulated. Also Take note of Southern New Jersey
For Appalachians, note the possible 2 feet in W/VA and only the high elevations in the southern Appalachians will get what is indicated.


click on image for larger view

1 inch of snow huh..
I'm gonna cry..
Quoting Tazmanian:



Yes you do lo,



Dos any one no what day it is it my B day turn 27 today

Happy Birthday Taz!
Done anything for your birthday?
Quoting Articuno:

1 inch of snow huh..
I'm gonna cry..


what is your location Articuno?
sorry btw...
hey taz

Quoting Tazmanian:



Yes you do lo,



Dos any one no what day it is it my B day turn 27 today


Happy birthday, Taz!
1362. Gearsts
Flood advisory is issued for the island of Oahu

It's always fun messing with color bars. Below I have manipulated an SST Anomaly image to only include anomalies above or below 1 degree Celsius. Doing things like this can help us get a better perspective of where the significant anomalies lie. Looking strictly at the tropics, the East Atlantic is pretty darn warm, as is the Indian Ocean. Not much of a signal coming out of the Pacific, though we do have warmth around SE Asia as well as a nice batch of warm anomalies in the equatorial East Pacific.


1365. pottery
Broke the Temp. record for this day, today. (it's becoming a regular thing...)... Trinidad, 11n 61w.

92F, previous record 91F in 1998.
Taz, I *poofed* you quite a while ago, but have a happy birthday, anyway. Everyone deserves that much. :)
1367. bappit
Going to be nippy in Wilmington later this week.

WHILE ATTM IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ANY NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED CAA...WED-FRI NIGHTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST...OR EVEN A FREEZE...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY NOW THAT THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
Tried to take the pup out between raindrops in Lake Worth. We were both soaked.
Quoting pottery:
Broke the Temp. record for this day, today. (it's becoming a regular thing...)... Trinidad, 11n 61w.

92F, previous record 91F in 1998.


so ya need some rain
1370. Thrawst
Spring is on vacation in the desert Southwest it seems. Even though below-average temperature anomalies will moderate over the next two weeks for much of the United States, cool conditions are still likely.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what is your location Articuno?
sorry btw...

Pasadena MD
1374. Thrawst
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Spring is on vacation in the desert Southwest it seems. Even though below-average temperature anomalies will moderate over the next two weeks for much of the United States, cool conditions are still likely.



You know the negative PDO is strong when you can see it on the temperature profile.
1375. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:



Yes you do lo,



Dos any one no what day it is it my B day turn 27 today


Happy Birthday, Taz. Have a good one. (Even though I saw your post first, Sorry I'm late. :)
Quoting Articuno:

Pasadena MD


Got it... hmm, yeah your are up for an inch (the most)...
sorry

The same goes to anyone living along DC/Baltimore and around the northern Chesapeake Bay, also southern DelMarVa Peninsula...the most is an inch of snow from Virgil.
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 6:53 PM PDT on March 24, 2013
Clear
70 °F
Clear
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 45 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.85 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 9.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

High at my place was 80.6. Airport was 82. State high was 85 (Thermal).
1378. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Hi Keeper.

Those clouds have been threatening all week, coming up from the SW.
No rain in them though.....
Happy Birthday Tazmanian....... many more for you too...
Quoting PedleyCA:
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 6:53 PM PDT on March 24, 2013
Clear
70 °F
Clear
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 45 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.85 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 9.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

High at my place was 80.6. Airport was 82. State high was 85 (Thermal).


over the last 24 hrs our high today was 38 low was 24 current is 34

ya its still not spring

this season how many storms/hurricanes will form? i think 14-17 storms 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major
Thanks all
Happy Birthday Taz...Keep them on their toes!
for Northern NYC area

SW CT Weather Info ‏@SWCTweather 42m
Even the smallest north trends with the storm would likely warrant Winter Weather Advisories for the SW CT coast. As of now, not needed.
Quoting floridaboy14:
this season how many storms/hurricanes will form? i think 14-17 storms 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major

trHUrrIXC5MMX is keeping track of all bloggers' forecasts.

Good evening. My family and I went to the Florida home and garden show at the Orlando civic center and we left just as the storms moved in. Damage is everywhere 3 possible tornadoes that the nws in Melbourne will confirm tomorrow. Wind was as strong as in a hurricane as trees are down everywhere roofs blown off and one woman is seriously injured. Lightning was worse than a summer thunderstorm as well as over 100,000 lightning strikes from 2 to 3pm.
Good news is I picked up 1.90" of rain this week.
People are being urged in Orlando to stay home as most streets are impassable.
Indy Car @ ST. Pete

Hinchcliffe records 1st win in drama-filled opener.
He's the first Canadian to win an Indy car race since Paul Tracy in 2007 at Cleveland
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

trHUrrIXC5MMX is keeping track of all bloggers' forecasts.



My is 15 7 2 but am bannd from his blog and ignored
Quoting floridaboy14:
this season how many storms/hurricanes will form? i think 14-17 storms 7-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major


I'll have you and many others who wish to be included by next Saturday, my list is closer to 45 now.

Im happy that finally I got a Mod to join.
Who else would I like to have eventually besides wu fellow bloggers and mods? Blog Admins like Dr. Masters, Angela F. and some other big weather people in here and out there.
My prediction is 14-18 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes. trHUrrIXC5MMX should have my WU mail with the same number so he can post it into his graphics.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
My prediction is 14-18 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes. trHUrrIXC5MMX should have my WU mail with the same number so he can post it into his graphics.

Hey Blue...

Yep, just got your mail, I wrote you down as well.
Hey trHUrrIXC5MMX, you can chalk me down for 18-8-2 if you want to keep the party going. ;)
Quoting Tazmanian:


My is 15 7 2 but am bannd from his blog and ignored
It was snowing a little earlier and it was starting to stick but has ceased.
You guys realize that the chart that TropicalAnalystwx13 put up in post 1385 is about 4 times bigger than that, you can zoom in to see better your name and your numbers as well as everyone elses'...

Just in case you did not know.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was snowing a little earlier and it was starting to stick but has ceased.


I'll post pictures tomorrow of the damage as it is unreal the amount of trees down everywhere. Also some lightning pics as well.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
People are being urged in Orlando to stay home as most streets are impassable.


that is correct, some significant damage from the storms there, saw some pictures on twitter




also
Richmond, VA has received 3.8 inches of snow, while snow has arrived in DC over the last hour.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


If the kids are lucky they'll get 2 hour delay.
Good Night All or ??, Sleep Well, Stay Safe, Stay Warm.
Quoting washingtonian115:
If the kids are lucky they'll get 2 hour delay.

we here could have the same issue for those going to public schools (not me), an early dismissal tomorrow and a possible delay or even closing Tuesday...all depends if the storm tracks a little north than what is expected to give us more snow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

trHUrrIXC5MMX is keeping track of all bloggers' forecasts.



Guess I've got to stick too it now. ;)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

we here could have the same issue for those going to public schools (not me), an early dismissal tomorrow and a possible delay or even closing Tuesday...all depends if the storm tracks a little north than what is expected to give us more snow.
The high on Tuesday will be 50.. I think rain is a better chance.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that is correct, some significant damage from the storms there, saw some pictures on twitter




also
Richmond, VA has received 3.8 inches of snow, while snow has arrived in DC over the last hour.


Where is the root system on that tree? It looks like a potted plant just fell over. Saw similar pics of trees down after Sandy. And Sandy was a Hurricane...not a thunderstorm. Very unusual.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The high on Tuesday will be 50.. I think rain is a better chance.


Now it's impossible to get snow during the day (for our area) as you know, at night Mon/Tue. Tomorrow night will be 31F and AM Tue 30F
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Where is the root system on that tree? It looks like a potted plant just fell over. Saw similar pics of trees down after Sandy. And Sandy was a Hurricane...not a thunderstorm. Very unusual.


You know what? I have wondered about that, I noted that many of the trees uprooted during Sandy did not have a real deep root basis to hold on to... instead they look flat bottomed underground... How can they hold up their weight against strong winds?

I don't know if most of the trees are like that here.. That's a good question you asked.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Now it's impossible to get snow during the day (for our area) as you know, at night Mon/Tue. Tomorrow night will be 31F and AM Tue 30F
I'm not counting in getting snow during the day.To much going against it...
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not counting in getting snow during the day.To much going against it...


in your area, you can check down to post 1399, I posted a radar loop for you...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Where is the root system on that tree? It looks like a potted plant just fell over. Saw similar pics of trees down after Sandy. And Sandy was a Hurricane...not a thunderstorm. Very unusual.
That's what happens when you have lazy planters..So the trees are not able to get a good sufficient root system..
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's what happens when you have lazy planters..So the trees are not able to get a good sufficient root system..


and when they do that, trees collapse, fall on top of cars/buildings damaging them (like in the picture below) or onto people either causing serious injuries or even death
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


and when they do that, trees collapse, fall on top of cars/buildings damaging them (like in the picture below) or onto people either causing serious injuries or even death
They don't make them like they use to.lol.
1415. beell
A tree with the surface area above its root system paved over with asphalt will do the only thing it can to survive-shallow roots.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Where is the root system on that tree? It looks like a potted plant just fell over. Saw similar pics of trees down after Sandy. And Sandy was a Hurricane...not a thunderstorm. Very unusual.

When you plant a tree in an area like that. the soil under the paved area is compacted so it's no suitable for tree roots to grow into as there is also no water. That's why I looks like there is no real root system. Normally when a tree that size falls over, it rips up an area of about 10 feet around it as the root system is large and comes out. Always be wary of big trees with paved areas around them. They will fall sooner than later.
Quoting AussieStorm:

When you plant a tree in an area like that. the soil under the paved area is compacted so it's no suitable for tree roots to grow into as there is also no water. That's why I looks like there is no real root system. Normally when a tree that size falls over, it rips up an area of about 10 fee around it as the root system comes out. Always be wary of big trees with paved areas around them. They will fall sooner than later.


whale hello there, someone finally shows up...

it still happens on trees that have plenty of free space (free ground) around them, here many were uprooted during Sandy and had the same root characteristics...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


whale hello there, someone finally shows up...

I've been here, just lurking. I don't have much to say. Only news I have is that the Tornado that struck southern NSW has been rated to have had winds bewteen 270km/h - 300km/h, which would put it as an EF4. Possibly one of The strongest Tornadoes in Australia.
1419. Gearsts
Gnite everyone, my hay awaits.
Some more updates about the snow tomorrow.
1421. beell
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


whale hello there, someone finally shows up...

it still happens on trees that have plenty of free space (free ground) around them,here many were uprooted during Sandy and had the same root characteristics...


Saturated ground prior to a wind event and the "normal" type of root system by species are also factors. Persistent drought will also cause roots to come towards the surface.

Sometimes the winds are just plain old severe.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


whale hello there, someone finally shows up...

it still happens on trees that have plenty of free space (free ground) around them, here many were uprooted during Sandy and had the same root characteristics...

Yes but the ground would of been fairly saturated by Sandy's rains which would make the ground more susceptible to allowing tree roots to rip through it. During a passing storm, rain water would just run off and not penetrate the soil hence why flash flooding normally occurs during thunderstorms and not just with normal rain showers. Persistent rains is what is normally needed to allow a tree to be uprooted with the root system showing.
Quoting Civicane49:
















Not sure how this extreme weather event lead to cock fighting injuries, the anguish of crop loss? There maybe some something lost in translation here..or not.

Pakistan~ Hafizabad city and most of the villages were lashed by torrentional rain and hailstorm followed by chilly winds during the past 12 hours, making the weather pleasant but created multiple problems for the citizens due to mal-functioning of sewerage system and over-flowing of open drains. The rain water gushed into several localities particularly, Garhi Awan, Sharifpura and low-lying localities around the city. According to agriculturists, the rain and hailstorm damaged the standing wheat crop and fodders in vast tract in the district. Seven persons including a woman were seriously injured when some citizens of Wali Town, Hafizabad, indulged in firing following quarrel over a brawl over cock fighting. The Rescue-1122 squad rushed the injured Zeb-un-Nisa, Majid Ali, Jamshed, Saqib, Ghulam Muhammad and Ali Abass to the DHQ Hospital where condition of two of them is serious. According to source, cock fighting of Ahsan and Majid Ali group was continuing in Wali Town when Ahsan and Majid Ali exchanged harsh words. Thereupon, Ahsan group allegedly opened firing as a result of which seven persons were injured. The police have registered a case against Ahsan, Akmal and 17 others and are investigating.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Where is the root system on that tree? It looks like a potted plant just fell over. Saw similar pics of trees down after Sandy. And Sandy was a Hurricane...not a thunderstorm. Very unusual.
Looks like the larger roots snapped. I can't tell for sure, but it looks like the lighter colored areas in the rootball are the cross section of large root "branches" that snapped.
Quoting beell:


Saturated ground prior to a wind event and the "normal" type of root system by species are also factors. Persistent drought will also cause roots to come towards the surface.

Sometimes the winds are just plain old severe.
Bad soil is also a factor. Many areas have only a foot or so of top soil that's good for things to grow in, and have heavy clay and stone below that, which the roots avoid. So they have very little purchase in the ground.
It was a beautiful blue sky day here in Sydney. I've finished it making a beautiful BBQ dinner of Basa fish fillets coated with cracked pepper, salt and garlic paste. Gosh it tasted nice, like melted in my mouth. The family hungrily ate it. The moon has come up and is looking a gorgeous off white colour and the sun is about to go down over the ranges. I hope everyone has a great morning.
Nearly all tree species root very shallowly compared to their height. It's the spread of those roots (~ the full circumference of the most outward branches of an untrimmed tree) and the weight of the soil held by those roots (dirt weighs almost 3times as much as wood per volume) which prevents the tree from tipping over in a windstorm.
When the soil becomes saturated, it's almost liquified. And the roots can be dragged/straightened through that mud/near-quicksand.
When the wind tips the tree over far enough, its weight combines with the wind to snap the straightened roots, leaving ever less soil anchoring the tree (like the heavy keel on a sailboat) and ever larger roots snapping until it falls.

Add a regular watering (and fertilizing) schedule like that found in cities, city parks, people's lawns, etc, and trees have an even smaller drive to extend their roots through more soil or to send their roots more deeply in search of water during spells of dry weather. Making them more vulnerable to being tipped over by the wind than trees which receive no such artificial care.
1432. LargoFl
good morning folks..windy here this morning.....
1433. LargoFl
1434. LargoFl
Including D.C......................WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON EDT TODAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. RISING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
1435. LargoFl
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179 -251800-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.130325T1000Z-130326T0400Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
409 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY...AND LONG
ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 4 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 40.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ANY ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ON UNTREATED SURFACES WILL
RESULT IN DIFFICULT AND SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS.
1436. LargoFl
Nam model was on the money this time, snow from DC up to NYC
Already snowing here in Montgomery County, PA... hopefully it keeps up. Maybe the snow will help cool down the temperatures; it's actually coming down at a pretty good pace.
1438. LargoFl
Good Morning rascal..yes PA is in it also...URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
454 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013



.SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT AND
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS MONDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH AS
MUCH AS 6-8 INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
1439. LargoFl
Im afraid to plant anything yet,unusual March this is..
1440. LargoFl
Drive Safely this morning ORLANDO residents..over 100 intersections without traffic lights..power outages still from sundays bad storms, tree's down blocking streets etc..stay safe folks.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW ORIGINAL MID-LVL LOW/VORT
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S MIDWESTERN SNOW STORM NOW
ELONGATING INTO A W-E SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH OVER SRN PORTIONS OF IND/OH.
THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE UPR CENTER REFORMS E OF
DELAWARE BAY LATER TODAY. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW OVER SE OH ALSO
SHOULD WEAKEN...WITH NEW SFC CENTER CONTINUING TO DEEPEN ABOUT 125
MILES E OF HATTERAS.

WITH DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OH VLY SYSTEM LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH
AFTER MID-MORNING OVER ERN OH AND WRN/CNTRL PA. IN THE MEAN
TIME...ISOLD 1 IN/HR RATES MAY PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW AND S CNTRL PA.

FARTHER SE...A SEPARATE AREA OF UPLIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE
ACROSS NRN VA...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...AND SRN NJ THROUGH LATE
MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ROUNDING
BASE OF THE ELONGATING UPR TROUGH. SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION...BUT LOW-LVL THERMAL PROFILES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MOST
PARTS OF THE CSTL PLN...AND EVEN OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH RATES UP TO AND LOCALLY IN EXCESS
OF 1 IN/HR MAY...HOWEVER...OCCUR THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE OF NRN VA/MD AND S CNTRL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF SE PA...MD AND
VA JUST W AND NW OF PHILADELPHIA...BALTIMORE...AND DC. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE JET STREAK CONTINUES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
1442. beell
Not much, if any mention made by the SPC or local WFO's yesterday of the decently strong piece of leading mid-level energy that swept across Florida yesterday. Even though it seemed it would play a role in Sunday's weather while it was over Texas on Saturday night.

Enough forced ascent to help erode the cap along with stronger than anticipated SW flow in the mid-levels. Perhaps a contribution as to why this line never weakened much as it moved south across FL.

Fairly obvious on the WV loop based on where the convection blossomed in relation to this feature. NAM and GFS did a fair job although it appears stronger than modeled.


GOES WV Loop-14:30Z 03/24 - 02:30Z 03/25

GFS (left) and NAM (right) 500mb Vort-Valid 18Z, Sunday-click for full image


Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today thru Wednesday with only isolated showers in interior PR on each afternoon.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN BEGIN TO ERODE AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
EVOLVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION WILL
GENERATE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A SLIGHT INCREASE ON MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS...OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER NW
PUERTO RICO BTWN 17Z-21Z. SERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT WITH GUST OF
25KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND INFLUENCE THE
PREVAILING TRADE WINDS BTWN 25/14-21Z.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. TODAY...SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 74 90 73 / 20 10 20 0
STT 85 75 85 75 / 0 20 20 10
1444. MahFL
Quoting Skyepony:
The story if the ship Bounty going down in Sandy has come out.


Sounds like the captain screwed up big time.
Good morning everyone.... cloudy here

3 inches on the ground and snowing heavily now.They have two hour delay...may need to change it to a canellation.The snow has found a way to stick to the pavement.
Quoting washingtonian115:
3 inches on the ground and snowing heavily now.They have two hour delay...may need to change it to a canellation.The snow has found a way to stick to the pavement.


really?
1448. barbamz
Good morning! For all of you who are interested in a sideview to volcanos: The submarine areas near El Hierro (Canaries) are very active with tremors and quakes for some days already. The whole island was trembling again this night. This time the AOI is at the western tip of the Island (last year it was at the southern tip).
Links and discussions here.


Click here on the symbols to get more data.
1449. 900MB
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone.... cloudy here

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone.... cloudy here



How is the offshore low coming? Noticed some downgrades to NYC snow forecast, some now down to dusting to an inch. What gives?
here in this part of e cen florida we had 40mph winds plus yesterday it was like a tropical storm for about 20 minutes.
Quoting 900MB:


How is the offshore low coming? Noticed some downgrades to NYC snow forecast, some now down to dusting to an inch. What gives?



the downgrade happened yesterday afternoon. Since the low will stay south of our area, however there could be over an inch of snow in NYC
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


really?
Yes.The trees and stuff have a good coating and the flakes are fat and now it has started to snow heavily with a fast past.
1453. JNCali
WINDY all night slight flurries.. found this online: Link
1454. 900MB
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



the downgrade happened yesterday afternoon. Since the low will stay south of our area, however there could be over an inch of snow in NYC


So close to the bullseye on that GFS map. What a tight gradient! I think there is a surprise in this storm. Eastern Long Island?
Storm pics from yesterday. Thousands across Orlando are still without power.

Universal


Orlando


Severe damage in Clermont as a strong tornado came thru. Not confirmed though until the NWS surveys the damage.


This was by the Florida Home & Garden show at the Orlando Civic Center. I just came out as the storms rolled in.










Lowes Home Improvement in WEST ORLANDO. Tornado video. wow!!!

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
3 inches on the ground and snowing heavily now.They have two hour delay...may need to change it to a canellation.The snow has found a way to stick to the pavement.


YES, I have 3 inches of snow too, but I have school off, may get upwards of 6 inches if this pattern continues.
Roofs blown off in West Orlando. All of the Orlando area had winds from 60mph to 86mph areawide.

This is what many streets in Orlando look like. Amazing!



Leading edge of the storm as it rolled into Orlando.


Rain wrapped tornado in the middle of this pic. The tornado was over Lake Louis in Clermont.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This is what many streets in Orlando look like. Amazing!



Wait, that's a street? O.o
Quoting Articuno:


YES, I have 3 inches of snow too, but I have school off, may get upwards of 6 inches if this pattern continues.
R.N.A has officially picked up its first inch of snow earlier and it's feeling like a million years.lol.Funny that in actual winter we had storms made of b__h material.This year is upside down.
Quoting Articuno:


Wait, that's a street? O.o


Hard to tell but yes there is a street over by where the people are standing. It's a small little side street.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This is what many streets in Orlando look like. Amazing!



Leading edge of the storm as it rolled into Orlando.


Rain wrapped tornado in the middle of this pic. The tornado was over Lake Louis in Clermont.


Poor Florida.This proves my theory that something bad is always happening in Florida..
The highlights of this graphic are:

1-Nino 3 has warmed a lot.
2-Negative PDO continues.
3-Tropical Atlantic continues above average.
4-The Tripole shows up clearly in the North Atlantic.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Poor Florida.This proves my theory that something bad is always happening in Florida..



Not poor Florida. Altough it's scary it's also exciting in the same sense. This kind of weather is fun!


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The highlights of this graphic are:

1-Nino 3 has warmed a lot.
2-Negative PDO continues.
3-Tropical Atlantic continues above average.
4-The Tripole shows up clearly in the North Atlantic.



It looks as it we are quickly heading toward El-Nino. I just don't see any cooling anytime soon.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The highlights of this graphic are:

1-Nino 3 has warmed a lot.
2-Negative PDO continues.
3-Tropical Atlantic continues above average.
4-The Tripole shows up clearly in the North Atlantic.

i dont think it will last. cpc model showed some warming before cooling. watch out in april if the eastern pacific cools off a little
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It looks as it we are quickly heading toward El-Nino. I just don't see any cooling anytime soon.



The updated CPC graphic shows well how Nino 3 has warmed into positive. Nino 3.4 continues in negative but has also warmed.

Miami NWS Disco

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND NORTHERLY FLOW WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT COULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER THIRTIES ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES WITH
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING IT MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING COULD BE IN THE UPPER THIRTIES ACROSS THE NAPLES AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY METRO AREAS AND POSSIBLY IN THAT RANGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. ACROSS GLADES
AND HENDRY COUNTIES WIND CHILLS COULD BE NEAR THE MID THIRTIES.
ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE TODAY WILL HELP TO REFINE THE TEMPERATURE AND
WIND CHILLS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
Going to turn stormy again across FL starting next Monday and lasting all next week. Typically a dry time of the year but not this year.



GFS precip accum thru 300 hours.

Wow Sky, that was a powerful read about the bounty.

As for trees, some trees bend to handle the wind and some snap off branches. Our tree doctor pruned holes in our tall magnolia to help prevent both. But tough live oaks will just hold on. That is why they are prized for boat timbers, live to be some of the oldest trees in Florida, and on occasion in powerful storms, flip up huge patches of earth.

How is that for a tree, ship, hurricane connection?
Quoting washingtonian115:
3 inches on the ground and snowing heavily now.They have two hour delay...may need to change it to a canellation.The snow has found a way to stick to the pavement.


We have 8.5 inches so far and still snowing. School was cancelled about 5:30 am. We went from the Winter that Wouldn't Quit, to the Winter that Never Was, to the Winter that Won't Ever End.
1473. Thrawst
Some nice little sprinklers across the Bank and Andros areas. Please...reach me before dying!

Does P. Phil have a legal defense fund?

Looks like I can afford my 30$ per person Carbon...I mean Drought Relief tax assesment this quarter.

I hope this weekends rain helped Florida's drought belt.

I see i missed this...i've been swimming

RECORD SNOWFALL...St. Louis picks up their largest March Snowfall with 12.4" Sunday. #snow #record

hearing about over a foot and a half of snow in central illinois too.
maybe we repeat march 2 2012







CAPE



LI

About 5 inches on the ground right now
our average high today is 67

our high today is 47

brrrr...

our average dead of winter high is 52
1479. Thrawst
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
maybe we repeat march 2 2012







CAPE



LI



I saw this yesterday! GFS has been hinting at it for a while now. Spring needs to come...NOW. Tired of seeing temperatures less than 20C on my forecast lol.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
our average high today is 67

our high today is 47

brrrr...

our average dead of winter high is 52



luck-e
possible record low of 19F in lubbock this morning.
Good morning everyone!

I drove through that powerful storm yesterday, just as it was coming ashore in Northwestern Pasco County...

The rain started as I passed State Road 52 while driving on US 19 in Hudson, heading north at about 1:20 PM. It got heavier as I traveled further north, the sky darkening all the while until it was ominous and like nightfall in the early afternoon.

The rain picked up until it was literally blinding, a few miles south of the Hernando County line, maybe around 1:30 PM. I was surprised at how much lightning there was, it was flashing brightly all around with a bolt every few seconds, followed by crashing thunder. Amidst all of the rain and the spreading darkness was that telltale eerie green glow..

When I saw that, I thought, "there's gonna be hail in this cell..." No sooner did I think that than the hailstones starting whacking across my windshield amidst the blinding maelstrom, "whack, whack, smack, splat.." Luckily, no windshield damage as the hail was maybe about quarter-sized, not quite big enough to crack or break.

The rain was reaching its peak around 1:45 PM as I crossed the Hernando County line. Traffic on the busy highway was slowed to less than 30 mph. and like many others, I pulled off the road just as soon as I saw that I could do so safely. I waited there as the rain continued to blast the car and by now I could feel the buffeting effect of the strong winds pulling on the vehicle as well.

Later, when the rain let up, I could see the scud clouds racing eastward at what seemed an incredible speed. Prior to this one could not see any definition to the clouds in spite of the fact that it was early afternoon when daylight should have been at its brightest. I started north again, through Spring Hill, just before 2:00 PM. My iPhone blinged with a video message from a friend who lives in extreme NW Pasco County. He had captured the hail hitting his patio and wanted to send the images along. I thought to myself, "well, you're safe and sound at home, try driving through this mess!"

A while later and after I had driven out from under the worst of the storm and the rain shield, it was still raining lightly now but visibility had improved dramatically as I turned east on one of the main roads that goes through Spring Hill. At this point, the worst of the storm was already at least ten miles to my east and the roadway perfectly framed the blackened sky ahead of me so that I could by now clearly see the numerous C 2 G lightning bolts off in the distance to the east, heading in the direction of Orlando. This was perhaps around 2:15 PM or so.

The raging storm had already passed my location and was well on its trek across Florida, where it would cause all the damage you have been seeing and hearing about this morning. As the storm passed further east across the state, it picked up still more strength because the daytime heating had been greater across E. Central Florida than it was in our area of West Central FL. All in all it was a wild experience and in all the years I have lived in Florida, I have seldom seen such a potent springtime storm system race through this area so powerfully as that one did yesterday.
For West Palm Beach...

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Good evening. My family and I went to the Florida home and garden show at the Orlando civic center and we left just as the storms moved in. Damage is everywhere 3 possible tornadoes that the nws in Melbourne will confirm tomorrow. Wind was as strong as in a hurricane as trees are down everywhere roofs blown off and one woman is seriously injured. Lightning was worse than a summer thunderstorm as well as over 100,000 lightning strikes from 2 to 3pm.


It somewhat bothers me that the significance of a severe event is based on the number of SPC reports rather than the significance of the actual damage. That was a pretty much a derecho event from Pasco County through Orlando into the east coast.
.
1487. hydrus