WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

An unusually quiet March for tornadoes--only 6 so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:37 AM GMT on March 21, 2013

After an unusually active January for tornadoes, with approximately double the activity of a typical January, tornado activity dropped to near-normal levels in February, and virtually flat-lined during March. The five confirmed tornadoes in Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama on Monday, March 18 brought the March 2013 tornado tally to just six. Monday's severe weather outbreak in the south brought hail up to the size of softballs to Jackson, MS, and damage from the hailstorm is estimated in the tens of millions.

Since 2000, the U.S. has averaged 89 tornadoes each March, so we have a long way to go to reach average. The 154 tornadoes last year in March 2012 was the fourth highest March total since records began in 1950 (record: 170 in March 2007.) Records for most and least tornadoes in a month have been set 24 times over the past 60 years. Ten of those records have been set in the past decade--six for the fewest tornadoes, and four for the most, said tornado researcher Harold Brooks last week. In addition, the three earliest starts of tornado season and the four latest have all occurred since 1997, and "We've had a dramatic increase in the variability of tornado occurrence," Brooks said. The jet stream, which plays a key role in tornado formation, has been wildly variable in recent years, leading to the large swings in tornado activity.


Figure 1. The EF-2 tornado with 120 mph winds that hit Meriwether and Pike County, Georgia on Monday, March 18, 2013 was one of just six March tornadoes in 2013. The cell labeled "3" spawned the tornado. Two other supercells are also labeled (cell #1 brought hail to Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport.) Thanks go to Stu Ostro of TWC for providing the image.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting only a small "Slight Risk" area for severe weather on Thursday over Northern Texas, and another "Slight RIsk" area on Saturday over the Southeast U.S. The winter-like jet stream pattern we are in is likely to be dominant for at least the next week, and perhaps into April. So, March 2013 has a shot at making the top-five list for the quietest March months on record for tornado activity. Years with fewest March tornadoes since 1950:

1) 1951: 6
2) 1969: 8
3) 1966: 12
4) 1958: 15
5) 1978: 17


Forecasting the End
We're safely past the December 21, 2012 date of the predicted Mayan Apocalypse, so its permissible to engage in a bit of "what if" speculation on how civilization on Earth might ultimately meet its doom. That's the premise of The Weather Channel's "Forecasting the End" series, which begins airing Thursday March 21 at 9 pm EDT. I'll be making appearances in six of the episodes, set to air each Thursday through mid-April. You might hear me say the phrase, "It would be a bad day on planet Earth" more than once during the shows, as the type of events being considered--an asteroid strike, super volcano eruption, gamma ray burst, encounter with a rogue planet, and massive methane expulsion event--would all do very bad things to earth's climate, making human life on Earth a tenuous proposition. The spectacular graphics should make for an enjoyable show.

New Wettest Place on Earth Discovered?
After successfully helping cast down one iconic world record--the bogus 136°F measured at El Azizia, Libya in 1922--wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera are at it again. Mr. Burt documents in his latest blog post a challenge to the world's rainiest location, which is officially Mawsynram, Meghalaya State, India, with an annual average precipitation of 11,872 mm (467.40”). It turns out that Puerto Lopez, Colombia may be even wetter.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters
Sample of hail
Sample of hail
3/18/13

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I've been seeing some models give me up to 4" of snow Monday, which I would've liked a month ago but i'm getting tired of the snow now. I want Spring weather to come now
Vertical instability is rising. The late March to mid-May timeframe is usually when we're able to see how the season will turn out in regards to this factor. If it's below average, it will probably stay below average, and vice-versa.



Quoting Doppler22:
3 things you never talk about to a group:
1. Religion
2. Politics
3. (not as much) Sports

So can we please get off this religious talk as people are free to practice any religion......

ANYWAY, i've been seeing some models give me up to 4" of snow Monday, which I would've liked a month ago but i'm getting tired of the snow now. I want Spring weather to come now


That is some great advice...
Quoting Levi32:


+ freaking 1.

At least other weather forums I've seen actually stay on the topic of meteorology. This place is full of fire-breathing political ideologues now. Half the time I don't even want to post anything given the context it would be placed in.


That's just called pre-season.

During the season, that all will be replaced by "The ECMWF is god!", "POOF!", "The ECMWF isn't the consensus, so I will be discounting it", and of course.. "where's the LLC!?!?"
Quoting Levi32:


+ freaking 1.

At least other weather forums I've seen actually stay on the topic of meteorology. This place is full of fire-breathing political ideologues now. Half the time I don't even want to post anything given the context it would be placed in.

Yeah, I usually don't post anything aside from observations. People can then do with them what they will. I have many personal opinions about some of the conversations/arguments that occasionally erupt on the blog but I mostly keep them to myself. It just isn't worth it for me to get caught up in that stuff.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Still to early to declare anything coming off of Africa to be a "Tropical Wave" Look for our First wave of the Season to emerge off Africa in May.
Fact: The earliest date of a Tropical Wave in the past 10 season was May 2nd.


You've been keeping count? Not bad, I can't even remember the first tropical wave last season.
507. wxmod
There are 4 satellite image abberations in this arctic image from today (diagonal streaks). The photo can be seen at the link below. There are a bunch of these streaks on the original image.
The bottom image shows a wider view of the arctic sea ice between Greenland and the North Pole.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subset s/?subset=Arctic_r04c03.2013080.terra.250m


******




Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's just called pre-season.

During the season, that all will be replaced by "The ECMWF is god!", "POOF!", "The ECMWF isn't the consensus, so I will be discounting it", and of course.. "where's the LLC!?!?"

You're such a wishcaster.
Quoting Levi32:


+ freaking 1.

At least other weather forums I've seen actually stay on the topic of meteorology. This place is full of fire-breathing political ideologues now. Half the time I don't even want to post anything given the context it would be placed in.


Hi Levi. You have mail.
510. etxwx
Wild weather kills 24 in South China

The scattered debris of a factory shows the severity of a storm that swept through Shatian township in Dongguan, Guangdong province, on Wednesday. Photo provided to China Daily

Tornado, hail, thunderstorms cause more than $210m in economic losses
Updated: 2013-03-22 01:44
By Li Wenfang in Guangzhou, Sun Li in Fuzhou and He Dan in Beijin (China Daily)

Excerpt: At least 24 people have died and four are missing after extreme weather hit five provinces in South China this week, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said on Thursday. Starting on Tuesday, tornados, rain and strong winds swept Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guizhou provinces, and about 215,000 people evacuated for their safety, according to a notice released on the ministry's website.

By 12 am on Thursday, 1.53 million people had been affected by the disastrous weather conditions. More than 2,000 residential buildings collapsed, and 248,000 houses were damaged. About 92,900 hectares of crops were damaged, and the crops on 16,400 hectares were destroyed, it said. The economic loss is estimated at 1.31 billion yuan ($210 million).

A super tornado, accompanied by thunderstorms and hailstones, hit several townships and subdistricts in Dongguan, Guangdong, on Wednesday afternoon, killing nine people by 10 am on Thursday. The storm also left 272 people injured, 11 of them seriously, said Deng Haoquan, secretary-general of the city government at a news conference on Thursday.

More here.
more snow coming soon!!


The vertical instability is not too bad today :-)
Hey Keep, what are we looking at in Egypt there? (post 511)

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
.
Quoting Levi32:


freaking 1.

At least other weather forums I've seen actually stay on the topic of meteorology. This place is full of fire-breathing political ideologues now. Half the time I don't even want to post anything given the context it would be placed in.
Political banter is found on all blogs, boards, and forums.

Let's not act like this is just a WU problem that just came up in the last few years. I do admire you for staying out of these debates, however.
Quoting Levi32:


+ freaking 1.

At least other weather forums I've seen actually stay on the topic of meteorology. This place is full of fire-breathing political ideologues now. Half the time I don't even want to post anything given the context it would be placed in.


Yeah any suggestions?
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Hey Keep, what are we looking at in Egypt there? (post 511)



IR night mode of high dessert clouds i guess what do you see

)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
life is short lighten up a little
Yeah it is...
Here's a recent cloudsat of the blob off South America.




Same pass catches the storm off the east coast..

523. etxwx
And here's one more story for your bedtime reading....eeek!
Spiders eat bats all the time, scientists reveal
By Charles Choi, LiveScience Contributor / March 18, 2013 via CSMonitor

A small bat (superfamily Rhinolophoidea) entangled in the web of a Nephila pilipes spider at the top of the Cockatoo Hill near Cape Tribulation, Queensland, Australia. The spider pressed its mouth against the dead, wrapped bat, indicating that it was feeding on it. Photo by Carmen Fabro, Cockatoo Hill, Australia

Excerpt: There's only one place in the world to escape bat-catching spiders: Antarctica. These arachnids ensnare and pounce on bats everywhere else in the world, researchers say. Bats rank among the most successful groups of mammals, with the more than 1,200 species of bats comprising about one-fifth of all mammal species. Other than owls, hawks and snakes, bats have few natural enemies.

Still, invertebrates — creatures without backbones — have been known to dine on bats. For instance, giant centipedes in a cave in Venezuela were seen killing and eating bats, and the arachnids known as whip spiders were spotted feeding on dead bats in caves of the Caribbean. Cockroaches have been observed feeding on bat pups that have fallen to the floor of caves.

Accidental deaths of bats in spiderwebs were known as well, but were thought to happen very rarely. Still, spiders are known to occasionally dine on a variety of vertebrates — creatures with backbones. For instance, fishing spiders capture and devour fish and frogs; some species of wolf spiders, huntsman spiders, tarantulas and related spiders have been seen killing and eating frogs and lizards; and tarantulas and comb-footed spiders have apparently fed on snakes and mice. There are also numerous reports of spiders killing other flying vertebrates, snagging birds with large orb webs.


You can get the rest of the gruesome details here if you dare...g'nite and sleep tight!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Political banter is found on all blogs, boards, and forums.

Let's not act like this is just a WU problem that just came up in the last few years. I do admire you for staying out of these debates, however.


political Banter is fine in your Blog..but lets keep it out of Dr. Masters Blog shall we..
Not much, I guess. hard to imagine much in the way of moisture in the interior of Egypt. I was out there a few years back, and had the pleasure of catching the Leonid meteor shower while in the desert. It was the most astounding thing I've ever witnessed - no light pollution, no humidity, best stargazing ever.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


IR night mode of high dessert clouds i guess what do you see

)
------Negative PDO losing its grip?


Tornado at Barooga New South Wales.
A tornado touches down at Barooga, New South Wales on March 21, 2013. At least 20 people were injured and buildings were damaged.
Going to call it a night. Been awake since 2AM and it wasn't supposed to be that way. OK, Stay Safe -Stay Warm - Sleep Well - See Ya when the big light
is on again.
Quoting Skyepony:
Here's a recent cloudsat of the blob off South America.




Same pass catches the storm off the east coast..


Nice. Thanks.
night ped see ya in the daylight
Quoting Gearsts:
------Negative PDO losing its grip?


It will be interesting to see if that warm pool east of Japan continues to extend eastward.
Quoting Skyepony:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It will be interesting to see if that warm pool east of Japan continues to extend eastward.
Yes and also the enso regions are warming.
Quoting auburn:


political Banter is fine in your Blog..but lets keep it out of Dr. Masters Blog shall we..
...I wasn't encouraging it and I haven't participated in any political banter either, so I'm not sure why you're asking me to keep it on my blog.

All I'm saying is political banter is found across the internet, it's not a localized or exclusive WU problem like some try and make it out to be.
Quoting Gearsts:
Yes and also the enso regions are warming.


Speaking of ENSO,the Mid-March update of the models is up and they are Neutral thru Summer and Fall.





Source
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Speaking of ENSO,the Mid-March update of the models is up and they are Neutral thru Summer and Fall.





Source
For the love of weather, i hope it stays like that.
Quoting TomTaylor:
woah...I wasn't encouraging it and I haven't participated in any political banter either, so I'm not sure why you're asking me to keep it on my blog.

All I'm saying is political banter is found across the internet, it's not a localized or exclusive WU problem like some try and make it out to be.


That was a general statement for everyone,not just you..I perhaps worded that a little strong,but regardless the Drs blog is no place for political banter nor religious arguments.didn't mean to make you feel like I singled you out,it wasn't meant that way.

I took your post as an opportunity to remind everyone .
One year ago


Now


Its also interesting,that AMO is really positive
Quoting auburn:


That was a general statement for everyone,not just you..I perhaps worded that a little strong,but regardless the Drs blog is no place for political banter nor religious arguments.didn't mean to make you feel like I singled you out,it wasn't meant that way.

I took your post as an opportunity to remind everyone .
Alright cool.

Just making sure I wasn't in trouble lol.
Quoting stormchaser19:
One year ago


Now


Its also interesting,that AMO is really positive


Big difference how the Tropical Atlantic is above average compared with 2012.
541. beell
nuke the unborn baby whales...
Quoting TomTaylor:
Alright cool.

Just making sure I wasn't in trouble lol.


Naw you cool :)...LOL
Quoting beell:
nuke the unborn baby whales...
beell ya alright snap out of it everything is ok
544. beell
don't make me plus on you, keep.
;-)
no anything but the plus please anything
Good evening weather blog....this is a weather blog right?
Well, watched that hour long segment on TWC for the mega-disasters. Rather boring stuff, since I already knew quite literally everything on there except possibly one tiny detail.

Most of it is all stuff we heard about in like 3rd or 4th grade in the 1980's.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Well, watched that hour long segment on TWC for the mega-disasters. Rather boring stuff, since I already knew quite literally everything on there except possibly one tiny detail.

Most of it is all stuff we heard about in like 3rd or 4th grade in the 1980's.


Good to know that I don't need to watch something that has already been showed by the Discovery Channel, the History Channel and countless others multiple times.

May I suggest a show on the science behind weather, and not this dumb-downed for public version?
Quoting Astrometeor:
Good evening weather blog....this is a weather blog right?


It aspires to be.
Quoting auburn:


It aspires to be.


I hope it achieves that some-day.

How are you doing this chilly (at least where I am) evening auburn?
Quoting Astrometeor:


I hope it achieves that some-day.

How are you doing this chilly (at least where I am) evening auburn?


All is good on the hill..kinda chilly here tonight also.
The low bombing off the eastern seaboard is looking good tonight.

this eve's Key West discussion ... cheers

ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1906...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 63 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 21ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 107 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
555. wxmod
Beautiful China. MODIS satellite photo today. Glad I wasn't born there. If I was, I would wake up each morning and drink beer until I ran out, then throw the bottles out the window. Great place!

It's kind of fitting that in the seminar I attended today Dr. Masters talked about how off topic his blog's comment section gets, especially during the hurricane off-season.

That's why I love (and hate) you guys though. :D
Quoting Astrometeor:


Good to know that I don't need to watch something that has already been showed by the Discovery Channel, the History Channel and countless others multiple times.

May I suggest a show on the science behind weather, and not this dumb-downed for public version?


What if there was a black hole and a white hole and a quasar and a strangelet and...and...and an anti-matter universe, and they were all going to collide with the Earth at the exact same time!!

115f SST and 500mph hypercanes...pffft, that's nothing.


I'm pretty sure White Holes, Strangelets, and anti-matter universes are still hypothesis, but I just threw out some biggies; Bigger than TWC program had anyway.
I noticed the SPC noted in their recent discussion that their may be an upgrade in risk issued for Georgia and north Florida region once the details get pinned down, that is maybe to moderate risk. Models are looking a bit scary, really cold air aloft, strong dynamics and a 55+ knot low level jet. Their should be plenty of heating a quite a bit of surface CAPE as well, which has been the main thing lacking in past events this winter and Spring.
Quoting Slamguitar:
It's kind of fitting that in the seminar I attended today Dr. Masters talked about how off topic his blog's comment section gets, especially during the hurricane off-season.

That's why I love (and hate) you guys though. :D


oops! ... He didn't mention me by name did he???
Quoting Slamguitar:
It's kind of fitting that in the seminar I attended today Dr. Masters talked about how off topic his blog's comment section gets, especially during the hurricane off-season.

That's why I love (and hate) you guys though. :D


we are gonna try our best to keep it on topic this year..
Quoting Slamguitar:
It's kind of fitting that in the seminar I attended today Dr. Masters talked about how off topic his blog's comment section gets, especially during the hurricane off-season.

That's why I love (and hate) you guys though. :D


He talks about us? Awwww, <3 you too Dr. M

For me it is a love and hate relationship with a good portion of my favorite bloggers here.
ASCAT of the Low off the east coast
Quoting Astrometeor:
Good evening weather blog....this is a weather blog right?

It is what it is. But what it is, only it knows. lol
564. wxmod
Mid North Pacific ship activity today. MODIS satellite photo with aerosol overlay.

Quoting 1900hurricane:
The low bombing off the eastern seaboard is looking good tonight.



Looks like it's going to make landfall in Cape Breton Island, increasing the Suete and Wreckhouse winds tonight. It's bombing out because of the Gulf Stream. Also, Jakobshavn Isbrae.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


oops! ... He didn't mention me by name did he???


He didn't mention any names, just the blog as a whole. I was sitting there waiting for him to start mentioning our usual "trouble makers" though. :D

Quoting auburn:


we are gonna try our best to keep it on topic this year..



It would be welcomed in my book! Shouldn't be long until potential TCs start spinning up.

Quoting Astrometeor:


He talks about us? Awwww, <3 you too Dr. M

For me it is a love and hate relationship with a good portion of my favorite bloggers here.



He is obviously proud of the community that has built up in the WunderBlogs, specifically his comment section. He may be less proud of some of the types of commenters that show up to give him grief...
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Looks like it's going to make landfall in Cape Breton Island, increasing the Suete and Wreckhouse winds tonight. It's bombing out because of the Gulf Stream. Also, Jakobshavn Isbrae.

The Gulf Stream may be helping to intensify the baroclinic zone, but the main reasons for the storm's rapid deepening is because if the low's location in the Right Entrance Region and Left Exit Region of two upper level jet streaks as well as the the 500 mb trough's negative tilt acquired from rounding a piece of the displaced polar vortex.



568. wxmod
Ship activity just south of the Aleutian Islands. MODIS satellite photo today

A secondary shortwave in the flow around the piece of vortex has resulted in a secondary low forming near the east coast. This low should bring some moderate snow to extreme SE New England before merging with the primary low.





Quoting 1900hurricane:
A secondary shortwave in the flow around the piece of vortex has resulted in a secondary low forming near the east coast. This low should bring some moderate snow to extreme SE New England before merging with the primary low.


There was a fresh ASCAT of that too..
Finally some people put it all together..


Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss


Qiuhong Tang, Xuejun Zhang, Xiaohua Yang and Jennifer A Francis


Abstract


The satellite record since 1979 shows downward trends in Arctic sea ice extent in all months, which are smallest in winter and largest in September. Previous studies have linked changes in winter atmospheric circulation, anomalously cold extremes and large snowfalls in mid-latitudes to rapid decline of Arctic sea ice in the preceding autumn. Using observational analyses, we show that the winter atmospheric circulation change and cold extremes are also associated with winter sea ice reduction through an apparently distinct mechanism from those related to autumn sea ice loss. Associated with winter sea ice reduction, a high-pressure anomaly prevails over the subarctic, which in part results from fewer cyclones owing to a weakened gradient in sea surface temperature and lower baroclinicity over sparse sea ice. The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favors the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.

OPEN ACCESS:

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014036/

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 15U
2:32 PM WST March 22 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1001 hPa) was located near 14.2S 93.8E or 400 km west southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.8S 91.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.3S 89.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
The system is entering a region of higher shear and convection has been weakening significantly over the past six hours. Final T of 1.5 is based on the MET. Although gales may still occur in southern quadrants, the system is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

No further bulletins will be issued for this system.
Quoting aspectre:
"National Weather Service told...the Fargo area...to prepare for one of the Red River's five largest crests"

"The...flood outlook for Fargo [NorthDakota] and...Moorhead [Minnesota] includes a 50 percent chance that the river would top 38 feet later this spring, which would surpass the fifth-highest crest of 37.34 feet in 1969. There's a 10 percent chance of an all-time record."


Global Warming!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thanks Keep! change of pace instead of maps! LOL
575. VR46L
What a lovely day Raining ice .. winds gusting upto 61 knots...



576. VR46L


Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A warmer 59 degrees this morning with a high in the mid 70's later on. We've a 40% chance of rain today, which I hope holds off until after school. Last day of school for nine days and a 'fun day'. Start the day with Eggonauts - soldiers throw raw eggs off the top of the school that the kids and their parents have put into anything they want that's no bigger than 6 in by 6 in, the idea being the raw egg is not broken. The messes are more fun than the successful ones. *G* Then family picnics and easter egg hunts. Classrooms are not fun places for picnics and easter egg hunts.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: Belguim waffles with fresh fruit, sausage and/or bacon, bagels with cream cheese and jelly and fresh orange juice. Enjoy!
Good Morning Folks!.........................
7-day for the Tampa bay area.................
Good morning. Here's the SPC's day 2 outlook:

Morning everybody!

This possible snow storm on Sunday could be the biggest snowstorm this winter for my area (even though it's technically spring now) GFS has been persistent in showing several inches of snow and is currently showing 8-10 inches of snow for the Cincinnati area. Places to the north/northwest could see over a foot of snow!
Quoting Slamguitar:
It's kind of fitting that in the seminar I attended today Dr. Masters talked about how off topic his blog's comment section gets, especially during the hurricane off-season.

That's why I love (and hate) you guys though. :D
.well outside of a few off topic(weather) posts i think the doc has built up a fine weather community in here,people from all over the world post here about their weather..I often wondered what IS..the topic of this particular blog?...is it what he posts as you enter the blog?..or is it current and the upcoming bad weather in the country etc...THAT is the unclear part..or..is the whole topic of this blog....global warming only?....very unclear doc...just my own personal question.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Here's the SPC's day 2 outlook:

do you think they are becoming More concerned about the Severe stuff in this coming gulf coast storm?..in florida we have a pretty good warm front moving up the state from the south this weekend..and its going to smash into..this eastward moving cold front..and the upper air currents are cold..i hope we dont see too many tornado's.
wow totally caught off guard this am 36 outside zephyrhills fl. touch of frost on windsheild. i see mid 80's tomorrow and back to chilly next tuesday. OH Good Morning
I just notice the SPC's new homepage. What does everybody think of it?
New Storm Prediction Center home page

Honestly, I think it looks fine, but I do prefer the current one.
Quoting severstorm:
wow totally caught off guard this am 36 outside zephyrhills fl. touch of frost on windsheild. i see mid 80's tomorrow and back to chilly next tuesday. OH Good Morning
good morning..yes the nws was warning about that possible frost yesterday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NATURE
COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. POTENTIAL HAZARDS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS TIME.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

PRC
THERE COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING A THIN BAND
OF PRECIP ORIENTED WEST-EAST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
THAT PRODUCES MEASURABLE SNOW

Spencer Denton7:03 PM - Public
The TN Valley has only seen 4 or 5 snow events after March 22nd in the past 100 years...c/o Dr. John Christy AL State Climatologist. #alwx

THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS THE MOST OMINOUS LOOKING...WITH A DEEPER MORE
NORTHERN SURFACE LOW THAT ALLOWS AN EXTRA 24 HOURS TO DESTABILIZE.
WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW
CONFIDENCE MENTION OF SEVERE/TORNADOES IN THE HWO.


ive noticed this as well about the CMC
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Some showers will fall in PR this afternoon but for the most part dry conditions will prevail this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST FRI MAR 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EAST COAST OF UNITED STATES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN ESTABLISH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WIND
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. AS A RESULT...THE LOCAL
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADVECT ONCE AGAIN A WARM AND
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE LOCAL REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN HOT TEMPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS THE
BROAD LOW MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THE FOCUS OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW QUADRANT TO THE SW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
22/06Z MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER AIR MASS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PWAT DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS SEEMS TO HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH 22/18Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 22/18Z PASSING ISOLATED SHRA REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER TJBQ AND TJMZ...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE BLW 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SE WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
2 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF WEEKEND. A SMALL NNE
SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 75 87 75 / 20 10 10 10
STT 84 74 85 77 / 20 20 20 20
Everyone have a great Friday! Aussie, have a great Saturday! I'm on vacation next week, so hopefully I'll be just waking up at this time, if I'm lucky, later than this!
good morning everyone...

WINTER STORM VIRGIL has been named

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Everyone have a great Friday! Aussie, have a great Saturday! I'm on vacation next week, so hopefully I'll be just waking up at this time, if I'm lucky, later than this!

I too have break starting late next week. I can't wait for sleeping in and staying up later.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
good morning everyone...

WINTER STORM VIRGIL has been named


Whether I get just some snow showers, accumulating snow, or nothing is still uncertain. Personally, I really don't want any snow.


Last few times MOB depicted storms in this fashion it was Dec 25 and more recently During the Jackson MS tornadoes
Looks like an all day event, where is Georgia Storm when you need model runs that you cannot access at work

Quoting LargoFl:
good morning..yes the nws was warning about that possible frost yesterday.
yeah, this is what happens when i spend to much time at work. how are you doing Largo?


Largo I am taking over w/ the graphics
As promised they have updated the percentage



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
WITH TIME...APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

AS THE TROUGH DIGS...A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF TX
IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE SEWD
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A DEEPENING LOW
IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE WRN HALF OF TN...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
AS THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPING INVOF THE LA VICINITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON EVOLVES AND MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD...A WARM FRONT ALSO RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
SHOULD BOTH SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH NWD
ADVECTION GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF
500 TO 1500 J/KG FUELING STORM DEVELOPMENT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AFTER DARK.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES...INCREASING WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.
ATTM...MODEL DIFFERENCES CAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM MODE AND
AXES OF MORE FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME
COMBINATION OF LINEAR MODE INVOF THE COLD FRONT AND MORE CELLULAR
CONVECTION INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS
-- ALONG WITH HAIL POTENTIAL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. DESPITE AFOREMENTIONED
UNCERTAINTIES...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF 30% SEVERE
PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 03/22/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

The cold is not over
Quoting LargoFl:


Hi Largo, things look interesting in E C FL Saturday as these thunderstorms will likely build down E C FL with temps pushing 90. Unfortunately Tampa maybe left high and dry on Saturday as all the rain will likely be north and just east of you. However Sunday is the day we all get dumped on by heavy rains and severe weather.
For West Palm Beach...

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The cold is not over


April looks cold folks and for those in Tornado Alley looking for an outbreak may have to wait until May. Could have one of the coldest Marches in history across the US.

Notice the higher heights up in Greenland. Not good for folks in the US looking for Spring.

March 2012 one of the warmest in history and March 2013 on of the coldest in history. Global Cooling anyone?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Could have one of the coldest Marches in history across the US.

Notice the higher heights up in Greenland. Not good for folks in the US looking for Spring.
Based upon what? It's going to have to be cold... very cold... record-breaking cold for day after day after day across most of the CONUS for us to have a top coldest March. So far we've had over 3x the heat records compared to cold records for the U.S. in March:

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
March 2012 one of the warmest in history and March 2013 on of the coldest in history. Global Cooling anyone?
Nonsense.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
March 2012 one of the warmest in history and March 2013 on of the coldest in history. Global Cooling anyone?
Sigh...
Quoting ScottLincoln:
Based upon what? It's going to have to be cold... very cold... record-breaking cold for day after day after day across most of the CONUS for us to have a top coldest March. So far we've had over 3x the heat records compared to cold records for the U.S. in March:

Nonsense.


Really, 75% of the US has expierenced colder than normal temperatures basically the whole month of March so far. Is it record breaking in every city no but as a whole we are trending one of the coldest Marches in a very long time. I would say top 10 to 20 coldest.

Never trust a forecast out beyond 5 days.
I don't understand why people attack others on here for saying how cold it's been but if someone post info on how hot it's been then that person is considered as GOD on here. Facts are facts people we have warm phases just as we have cold phases and this Spring the US appears to be in a cold phase due to this -NAO.

613. MTWX
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Never trust a forecast out beyond 5 days.

Shoot, I don't trust them more than 3 days out!! LOL!


Morning everbody.

Who thinks that SPC may upgrade tomorrow to a moderate risk come morning???

I'm not talking anything massive, just a small area from just west of the MS/AL border into South Central AL...
RE 593 TropicsWeather:

I don't know about you over there but that rain that was forecasted last week never arrived. I just KNOW that someone doesn't like me and I'm going to be FORCED to get that cistern reading in the next couple of days!

Looks like we're fishing tonight. Thanks for the update!

Lindy
We have some rain west of Tampa moving east toward the West Coast of Florida. Could also see some thunderstorms develope as well over FL later today.



Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I don't understand why people attack others on here for saying how cold it's been but if someone post info on how hot it's been then that person is considered as GOD on here. Facts are facts people we have warm phases just as we have cold phases and this Spring the US appears to be in a cold phase due to this -NAO.



No one is "attacking" you. ScottLincoln is merely countering your statement based on the current national high and low records for the month.

Disagreeing with someone based on factual information is not "attacking".
Quoting MTWX:

Shoot, I don't trust them more than 3 days out!! LOL!


Morning everbody.

Who thinks that SPC may upgrade tomorrow to a moderate risk come morning???

I'm not talking anything massive, just a small area from just west of the MS/AL border into South Central AL...


I think there will be but where is the question. The GFS continues to show a lot of action across C & N FL on Saturday and that area could be a hot spot for damaging weather. I think any severe weather in your area will occur after sun down (maybe like 5pm to 8pm) based on the GFS.

Florida should be on the lookout.



Hostile wind shear in the Atlantic


Quoting Xyrus2000:


No one is "attacking" you. ScottLincoln is merely countering your statement based on the current national high and low records for the month.

Disagreeing with someone based on factual information is not "attacking".


Maybe you didn't see this at the end of his post. I mean really.

Nonsense.
622. beell


Quoting MTWX:

Shoot, I don't trust them more than 3 days out!! LOL!


Morning everbody.

Who thinks that SPC may upgrade tomorrow to a moderate risk come morning???

I'm not talking anything massive, just a small area from just west of the MS/AL border into South Central AL...


Put me down for a "no", fwiw.
Quoting Grothar:


Hostile wind shear in the Atlantic




Im pretty sure thats the only thing that is keeping anything from forming.

Once the jet stream moves north later this spring and takes the shear with it... BAM!
624. MTWX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I think there will be but where is the question. The GFS continues to show a lot of action across C & N FL on Saturday and that area could be a hot spot for damaging weather. I think any severe weather in your area will occur after sun down (maybe like 5pm to 8pm) based on the GFS.



I think I'm going to be a little north of the action this time. Thinking the battle ground for tomorrow is going to stay primarily south of the I-20 corridor.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Ohio Prosecutor Indicts Punxsutawney Phil for ‘Misrepresentation of Early Spring’




Well, I don't know that I'd go as far as the death penalty but I'd like to see him sentenced to life in a cage with all the WU trolls... :-)

Lindy
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Maybe you didn't see this at the end of his post. I mean really.

Nonsense.


Don't worry, they "gang up" on anyone who isn't in "their" camp. Like a pack of wolves waiting on weak prey. I like the ostrich in sand comments the best.
627. beell
Are the two Scott's talking about the same thing?

Coldest March in History/One of the coldest
Quoting Chucktown:


Don't worry, they "gang up" on anyone who isn't in "their" camp. Like a pack of wolves waiting on weak prey. I like the ostrich in sand comments the best.


LOL! Good morning. Looking like a wet couple of weeks for the SE US per the GFS. This is typically a dry time of the year for us in the SE. So I guess I will take this over the dry spring we had last year.

Good Morning Folks. Enjoyed seeing Dr. Master's last night on the new Weather Channel series although the "Forecasting the End" title is way over the top for potential events that might not happen for another 500-1000 years............ :)

Here is a nice synopsis for the potential tri-state (AL/FL Panhandle/GA) severe weather potential this weekend from the Tallahassee NWS am weather briefing:

Threat Overview:
 Large Hail
 Damaging Winds
 Isolated Tornadoes
 Locally Heavy Rain

Synopsis:

A very complex Low Pressure System is forecast to impact our Region over the upcoming weekend, as an Upper Level Disturbance dives southeastward into the Lower Plains by Saturday Afternoon. This will allow a strong Warm Frontal Boundary to become established along the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday, with a new Surface Low Pressure System expected to form and push northeastward just to our west. This new Low will help push the Warm Front (and plenty of deep layer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico) northward through our area, resulting in a “2-pronged”
Severe Weather threat, described below.

Timing:

The first threat for Severe Weather will come with the passage of the Warm Frontal Boundary itself, as it pushes northward through the Tri-State Area either Saturday Afternoon or Evening. Although all types of Severe Weather mentioned above will be possible with the Warm Front, this time period may provide the greatest threat for Tornadoes due to the more favorable environmental wind profile. The second threat for Severe Thunderstorms will be along the squall line which is expected to develop just out ahead of the Cold Front as it begins to accelerate and sweep eastward through the region late Saturday Night into the first half of Sunday. Again, all types of Severe Weather will be possible with the squall line and, but the greatest threats with this line may be Damaging Straight Line Winds and Large Hail. As we get closer and closer to the event, we expect to be able to hone in better on the timing and multiple threats from this system.

Severe Storm Probability:

The storm prediction center has outlooked our Tri-State area in their Day 2 Slight Risk shown below.


Slight risk as opposed to moderate is a good thing.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hi Largo, things look interesting in E C FL Saturday as these thunderstorms will likely build down E C FL with temps pushing 90. Unfortunately Tampa maybe left high and dry on Saturday as all the rain will likely be north and just east of you. However Sunday is the day we all get dumped on by heavy rains and severe weather.
Hi, yes i think sunday is going to be our very watchful day for bad weather, hope no hail and tornado's etc..
Quoting severstorm:
yeah, this is what happens when i spend to much time at work. how are you doing Largo?
Hi im doing good..more 30's coming for you next week, tues and wens they say..winter it seems likes florida this year huh..
Quoting allahgore:


I guess if you can't prove things you laugh?


He's laughing because your premise is logically flawed to begin with. You begin by assuming something exists, and then ask someone to disprove the existence of that thing.

Look up Russell's Teapot for more insight.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I don't understand why people attack others on here for saying how cold it's been but if someone post info on how hot it's been then that person is considered as GOD on here. Facts are facts people we have warm phases just as we have cold phases and this Spring the US appears to be in a cold phase due to this -NAO.
It's not "attacking" someone when I actually look up the data on the question that you didn't.

Next time, just look up some actual data before you say something as profound as "we're going to have one of the coldest March temperatures on record for the U.S." - if you don't, then you can't really feel bad when someone else does it for you.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Really, 75% of the US has expierenced colder than normal temperatures basically the whole month of March so far. Is it record breaking in every city no but as a whole we are trending one of the coldest Marches in a very long time. I would say top 10 to 20 coldest.
Just because a large area of the country experienced a certain condition (wetter than average, colder than average, etc) doesn't mean it will end up with the record value. To see the record value, you would almost always see numerous site records. In February we actually had a few more cold records than warm records, but ended up with a near-normal monthly temperature. So far in March we've had heat records out-pacing cold records 3:1. The first half of the month would have to be swamped with severe, persistent, and record-breaking cold for days and days. This is not an attack, it's what using math and science tells us when we use actual data.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Maybe you didn't see this at the end of his post. I mean really.

Nonsense.

It's nonsense because:
1) Year-to-year swings are climate variability, not climate change.
2) The U.S. makes up roughly 2% of the globe.

Note: Corrected to note that you actual said "one of" the coldest March temperatures on record. But top 10-20 vs. #1... in both instances you would need more cold records than hot records and we have quite a bit to go before we see that.
showers down in south florida..warm front is coming i guess..
If you live in the CITY of D.C and beleive the GFS..your gonna have a BAD TIME.
636. MTWX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


LOL! Good morning. Looking like a wet couple of weeks for the SE US per the GFS. This is typically a dry time of the year for us in the SE. So I guess I will take this over the dry spring we had last year.



Where are you located Scott? Around here our springs are usually quite moist.. The rains usually shut off about mid May, and then, with the exception of our summer pop up storms and tropical systems, we don't see widespread rains again until October.
Quoting MTWX:

Shoot, I don't trust them more than 3 days out!! LOL!


Morning everbody.

Who thinks that SPC may upgrade tomorrow to a moderate risk come morning???

I'm not talking anything massive, just a small area from just west of the MS/AL border into South Central AL...


I am thinking that it will be upgraded... not based on anything other than the fact that all of march has been quite so far ( in regards to tornadoes) so if march wants to get with the program it would need to be this weekend or else march will go down as highly inactive
boy GFS isnt kidding about sunday huh.....
639. MTWX
Quoting WDEmobmet:


I am thinking that it will be upgraded... not based on anything other than the fact that all of march has been quite so far ( in regards to tornadoes) so if march wants to get with the program it would need to be this weekend or else march will go down as highly inactive


The hail potential is the only reason I see it being upgraded. Don't think there will be enough low level shear to enhance the tornado risk to a moderate level.
i see sunday,a warm 80 degree front smashing into a cold front,battle line being drawn between the 2 fronts somewhere either right over my area or to the north in florida..we'll see just how bad it gets on the weekend..both sat and sunday my temps are 80 then it falls into the 60's after the fight is over....lets see how severe the warnings get saturday.
Here is the current position of the jet stream right over the coastal Gulf region hence the slight risk; however, warm Gulf flow and daytime heating tomorrow, if a substantial rain shield does not establish itself out ahead of the advancing front to help cool things down, will make for a very bumpy ride whether we remain at slight or they bump it up as the day progresses.

Link
Quoting LargoFl:
boy GFS isnt kidding about sunday huh.....
It's been awful all winter.Why beleive it now?.
643. VR46L
Good Morning Folks....

See religion has just been re-brought up and The other same old

Before I lurk while this is going on

Horrific day here



Have a good day!!
cmc holding to northern solution





Quoting LargoFl:
i see sunday,a warm 80 degree front smashing into a cold front,battle line being drawn between the 2 fronts somewhere either right over my area or to the north in florida..we'll see just how bad it gets on the weekend..both sat and sunday my temps are 80 then it falls into the 60's after the fight is over....lets see how severe the warnings get saturday.


Houston hit a record 90 this week already
Quoting MTWX:


The hail potential is the only reason I see it being upgraded. Don't think there will be enough low level shear to enhance the tornado risk to a moderate level.


SPC is doing an update at 12:00 or so CDT, so well know soon enough
647. fuzed
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The cold is not over


I'm over it.

When does the blocking high move?
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FOG IMPACT...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS. VISIBILITY IN A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NATURE
COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. POTENTIAL HAZARDS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
UKMET shows dual 993 and 996mb lows

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Maybe you didn't see this at the end of his post. I mean really.

Nonsense.


Yes, because you made a a pretty strong claim (this March would be in the top 10 or 20 coldest) that not only did you not present any evidence for, but was also strongly refuted by observational data. The claim you made IS nonsense from that perspective.

It would be the same as me claiming that this March will be in the top 20 or top 10 warmest. That claim is also nonsense.
What's ya'll thoughts on 2013 hurricane season?
ok today Texas begins the battle,hot versus cold...
Quoting MississippiBoy2:
What's ya'll thoughts on 2013 hurricane season?


Same as last year. Above average number of storms, failure to intensify as they move into the western half, and mostly recurving out to sea.
654. ARiot
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Maybe you didn't see this at the end of his post. I mean really.

Nonsense.


You posted that March 2013 is "Global" Cooling.

That is nonsense on multiple levels.

An attack would be against you, not the words you posted.

Perhaps you could have posted a smiley or sarcasm tag so people would realize that you in no way equate cooler than normal temperatures in one small slice of the planet for a short time in the wake of the warmest planet year on the observable temperature record and called it "global cooling."

you folks who park your cars outside..pay attention..possible Large Hail............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A SAINT FRANCISVILLE TO LIBERTY MISSISSIPPI LINE.
THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL.

THE PEARL RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE PEARL RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AT MORGAN CITY IS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD
MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
Quoting LargoFl:
ok today Texas begins the battle,hot versus cold...


I'm beginning to think the Mexican cap is permanently establishing itself well into TX now. Years ago we never had this cap issue, it would storm and rain and we'd get our rainfall.
Quoting MississippiBoy2:
What's ya'll thoughts on 2013 hurricane season?
I'm waiting until May to make a decision.As of now it seems that it'll be active.But as we all know 2006 was looking like it was gonna be active and then the pacific switched out on a dime.

I'm going with a safe 15 for now..(Not going to predict majors as last year is an example of just because it's active doesn't mean we'll have more stronger storms.)
Quoting RitaEvac:


I'm beginning to think the Mexican cap is permanently establishing itself well into TX now. Years ago we never had this cap issue, it would storm and rain and we'd get our rainfall.
I hope you do get some rain out of this system..we need it bad also.
Quoting yonzabam:


Same as last year. Above average number of storms, failure to intensify as they move into the western half, and mostly recurving out to sa.
Lol.THIS!.But if we stay in our current blocking pattern you can forget about recurves..
Alabama they cant say it enough.heed your local warnings..
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Maybe you didn't see this at the end of his post. I mean really.

Nonsense.


personally i think the idea that someone calling your premise 'nonsense' is some sort of personal attack is itself nonsense.
Quoting MTWX:


Where are you located Scott? Around here our springs are usually quite moist.. The rains usually shut off about mid May, and then, with the exception of our summer pop up storms and tropical systems, we don't see widespread rains again until October.


Orlando
I think washi is right, way too early to predict the coming hurricane season and the gulf is cold this year, it will take some time for it to heat up again, and we still are getting cold weather
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.THIS!.But if we stay in our current blocking pattern you can forget about recurves..

September is 6 months away. You think that blocking pattern will still be there in 6 months time?
Quoting yonzabam:

September is 6 months away. You think that blocking pattern will still be there in 6 months time?
I know that the pattern can switch in and out over a few months..I'm not retarded -_-.But if the blocking pattern dominates then we're screwed..thats what I was saying..Just look at 04 and 05 for examples..But if the blocking pattern doesn't stay in place and goes away at the right time the U.S can be spared (2010 for an example.)
Just a couple statistical points ...

Comparisons of record highs versus record lows for a month is not a statement about average temperature.

Sure, they're correlated ... but one is a statement about mean, and the other is a statement about mean + variance. It very well could be that a month could be cooler than average, with more record highs than lows.

It also largely depends on where measurements are taken and how the average is computed. A record warm day over the northeast will show several record warm observations but will cover a small area of the nation and contribute little toward the national average (if it's weighted by area).
669. VR46L
Quoting yonzabam:

September is 6 months away. You think that blocking pattern will still be there in 6 months time?


Just A quick Comment the Tropical season starts officially 1st of June and last year the Atlantic had Alberto and Beryl before that and the majority of the storms happened last year before September... Its the Cape verde part of the season that tends to occur in September.

Quoting LargoFl: Post#638
boy GFS isnt kidding about sunday huh.....


Good Morning All..
Largo there's 6 Low pressure systems and 5 High pressure systems in that 48hr GFS Prediction..
(Counting the High off the Pacific coast)..
Geez..active..
morning everyone
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
If I believe this can I get a cookie?.

Morning keep.As hurricane season draws close it will be hard KEEPING (no pun intended) the blog together.
especially if we have a slow start.
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning All..
Largo there's 6 Low pressure systems and 5 High pressure systems in that 48hr GFS Prediction..
Geez..active..
Hi, yes im getting a lil anxious about this one, way too much uncertainty about exactly where..the severe stuff will hit in florida
chilly here this morning..........
Quoting MississippiBoy2:
What's ya'll thoughts on 2013 hurricane season?


Above average TC,average Hurricaines, above average Majors..
Quoting LargoFl:
Hi, yes im getting a lil anxious about this one, way too much uncertainty about exactly where..the severe stuff will hit in florida


Yeah, guess I'm in for it..
No tornadoes please..
You guys/gals watch out this weekend Largo..
Lots of spring breakers don't know how to deal with this kind of weather..
average significant tornado 22 march



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Post3677


Looks like I'll be pumping the pool out again this weekend..
Messes up my chemicals big time..
Bermuda High strength and location critical this year for East Coast folks..
I'm looking for Carribean crusiers and Homegrown storms here..
It has been a windy winter for sure.So windy that in fact even people who pay little attention to the weather around here wants to know what is going on.It's been that kniving jet stream.I've had one to many bad hair days this winter!.A matter of fact CWG wants to discuss it in a post.
My forecast for the season is at least 18 named storms, at least 8 hurricanes, and at least 3 major hurricanes. I've posted the below graphics before, but I'm doing it again so those that haven't seen it...can see it.

CFSv2 three-monthly wind shear forecast for the Atlantic and East Pacific:



Blues denote below-average wind shear.

CFSv2 three-monthly sea surface temperature forecast for the Atlantic and East Pacific:



Orange and reds denote above-average values.
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 6m
NORLUN snow event for the Cape/ SE New England: Harwich 9.5", Brewster 9.2", Chatham 8", New Bedford 8", Fair Haven 7" Little Compton, RI 6"
Quoting pcola57:
Bermuda High strengh and location critical this year for East Coast folks..
I'm looking for Carribean and Homegrown storms here..
I hope your right..don't want another Irene or Sandy running up the coast..Isabel was already enough and that was 10 years ago!(already? wow).
Quoting washingtonian115: Post#686
I hope your right..don't want another Irene or Sandy running up the coast..Isabel was already enough and that was 10 years ago!(already? wow).


Yeah Washi.. you folks on the East Coast need time to heal and fortify..
NWS For my area Saturday Morning..



Saturday afternoon..



Saturday night..

Quoting pcola57:


Yeah Washi.. you folks on the East Coast need time to heal and fortify..
Ironically usually after a big storm hits a part of the counrty we get a break and another are of the counrty is terrorized.For an example.Hurricanes Katrina,Wilma,and Rita devestated the gulf coast.Until 2008 they had a nice little break to get together..and didn't have another storm until Issac..So it may be their time this year indeed...
Quoting washingtonian115: Post#689
Ironically usually after a big storm hits a part of the counrty we get a break and another are of the counrty is terrorized.For an example.Hurricanes Katrina,Wilma,and Rita devestated the gulf coast.Until 2008 they had a nice little break to get together..and didn't have another storm until Issac..So it may be their time this year indeed...


Congress took too long to enable the money for Sandy victims IMO..
Quoting pcola57:


Congress took too long to enable the money for Sandy IMO..
Almost reminds me NOLA.Some areas still haven't recovered.In situations like Sandy and Katrina we as the american people have to depend on ourselves and neighbors and not the sorry congress we have in place now.
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning All..
Largo there's 6 Low pressure systems and 5 High pressure systems in that 48hr GFS Prediction..
(Counting the High off the Pacific coast)..
Geez..active..


Good morning Pcola
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Good morning Pcola


Good Morning Max..
Good to see ya.. :)
As I have mentioned a few times, I am not posting any bets on the numbers; the number of majors forecast for last season from most of the top dogs (Grey/Klotzbach-TSR, etc.) never materialized and the number of storms (mostly tropical storms vs. hurricanes) was on the high end in spite of an El Nino season. Anything can happen and if the global warming trends are true/continue, we are going to see some subtle anomalies and changes over the next few decades from past patterns/analog years.

Anything could happen in any given upcoming season with plenty of surprises on tap so I am done chasing the numbers/intensity game based on analog patterns in the pre-season..........We have to take it one season at a time as they unfold.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Good morning Pcola


some severe weather for your area tomorrow, don't worry we well keep you covered.
The CONUS temperature anomaly is currently -0.653, meaning as a whole, the United States has been below average this month. With another cold shot coming over the coming days, and another one after that, the CONUS temperature anomaly will probably end up between -0.6-0.75C.

This month is probably the coldest we've seen since 2011. November 2012...



...is close, but we've seen a greater expanse of below-average temperatures this month. And the heat in the West hasn't been as intense.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The CONUS temperature anomaly is currently -0.653, meaning as a whole, the United States has been below average this month. With another cold shot coming over the coming days, and another one after that, the CONUS temperature anomaly will probably end up between -0.6-0.75C.

This month is probably the coldest we've seen since 2011. November..



...is close, but we've seen a greater expanse of below-average temperatures this month.

This is just disgusting.That map a year ago told a whol 'nother story.I don't want it to be like last year where it was a sona..just daily highs in the 60's and 70's.Is that to hard to ask for?.
So far we have been getting hit with storms after storms, just like a parade...
A new hurricane would be a disaster, especially if it's like Sandy... complete devastation.

The Northeast Coast is weak.
700. 900MB
More winter on tap for NYC, arrgghh!
severe weather for the weekend for the south!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Almost reminds me NOLA.Some areas still haven't recovered.In situations like Sandy and Katrina we as the american people have to depend on ourselves and neighbors and not the sorry congress we have in place now.


Rebuilding a catastrophe zone doesn't happen by magic. the government can't give every person in NOLA a free new home or business. Additionally, they actually put SLIGHTLY more reasonable housing building code regulations in place (regarding location and elevation,) and that costs money, which most of the people affected by Katrina were poor people living in 3rd or 4th generation housing to begin with; So they can't afford to meet the new building codes. Only thing wrong with the codes is they're actually not strict enough, but that's just the way it is.

If people want to live in a fish tank, the government shouldn't be liable, and the people who do not want to live in the fish tank should also not be liable.
that high has to move from greenland before we get spring..its forcing that cold artic air down into the deep usa.
Winter Storm Virgil: Snow, Cold Continue into Spring This energy then emerges into the central Plains Friday night into Saturday, where we expect snow and increasing winds to develop in parts of Colorado, Wyoming, Kansas and Nebraska. Significant travel impacts are possible on stretches of I-80, I-70, I-76 and I-25 in these states.

The Denver metro area will likely see accumulations of five inches or more from Virgil. Heavier amounts are expected in the foothills
In Virgil's warm sector, we'll be watching parts of the South for a significant threat of severe storms and very heavy rain Saturday into Saturday night. For more information on this threat, click here.
Snow Heads East Sunday-Monday
At this time, some uncertainty remains with exactly where the most significant snow totals will be found as Winter Storm Virgil heads east Saturday night into Sunday.

In general, we expect the swath of snow to move from parts of Missouri to the middle-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches are likely near and either side of the I-70 corridor. This could include cities such as Kansas City, St. Louis, Springfield, Ill., Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Columbus, Ohio.

Impacts may be tempered somewhat by the higher sun angle for late March during the daytime, which will likely keep roads warm enough in many areas to limit snow build-up. That said, in locations where snow falls at night and where snowfall rates are heavier in the daytime, roads will likely become snow covered.

Snow or a wintry mix could also develop in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by later Sunday.

Sunday night into Monday, Virgil will continue to produce snow or a rain/snow mixture in parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia could see some of this wintry precipitation during this time frame. Snow may also reach as far north as the New York City metro. Details on how significant the impacts will be are uncertain at this time.

Expect at least some travel delays in parts of the region for the Monday morning commute.

Of course, one key ingredient to this snowy start to spring is that we have plenty of cold air available thanks to an extreme weather pattern currently in place
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2013

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY ALLOWING FOR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AND ALLOW FOR THE DEW POINTS TO INCREASE
FROM THE 40S/50S EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE 60S BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE
POPS AT THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THEY
COULD ROTATE DUE TO THE HIGH SEAR IN THE WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...DUE
TO THE VERY LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WE
WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE MORNING HWO PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
As I have mentioned a few times, I am not posting any bets on the numbers; the number of majors forecast for last season from most of the top dogs (Grey/Klotzbach-TSR, etc.) never materialized and the number of storms (mostly tropical storms vs. hurricanes) was on the high end in spite of an El Nino season. Anything can happen and if the global warming trends are true/continue, we are going to see some subtle anomalies and changes over the next few decades from past patterns/analog years.

Anything could happen in any given upcoming season with plenty of surprises on tap so I am done chasing the numbers/intensity game based on analog patterns in the pre-season..........We have to take it one season at a time as they unfold.
Do you mean One storm at a time? Good morning all.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The CONUS temperature anomaly is currently -0.653, meaning as a whole, the United States has been below average this month. With another cold shot coming over the coming days, and another one after that, the CONUS temperature anomaly will probably end up between -0.6-0.75C.

This month is probably the coldest we've seen since 2011. November 2012...



...is close, but we've seen a greater expanse of below-average temperatures this month. And the heat in the West hasn't been as intense.


Do you happen to know the baseline of the anomaly you mentioned? And was it from NCDC data or some other source?

From NCDC data available here:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us

March 1965 was the coldest with a -3.38C anomaly (compared to 1900-2000 average). For a March to make the top 20 coldest, it would need an anomaly of at least -1.56C. The entire CONUS would have to average roughly 3.5C/6.3F below average for the rest of the month to drag the -0.65 down that far.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


He's laughing because your premise is logically flawed to begin with. You begin by assuming something exists, and then ask someone to disprove the existence of that thing.

Look up Russell's Teapot for more insight.


well i guess if you would scroll down to whom I counter responded to, you would not be wrong in your statement.why are you cherry picking the context?
Just found the 4-4-13 anomalies for the sst
Do ya'll this is going to be an active hurricane season.
CSU GETS THEIR FORECAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.