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Where's spring? 2nd most extreme March jet stream pattern on record extends winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on March 20, 2013

Punxatawney Phil got it way wrong. Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent predicted just three more weeks of winter back on February 2. It's the first day of spring, but winter remains firmly entrenched over the eastern half of the U.S., where temperatures of 5 - 25°F below average have been the rule all week. The culprit is the jet stream, which has taken on an unusually contorted shape that is allowing cold air to spill down over the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe, but bringing near-record warmth to portions of Greenland. One measure of how contorted the jet stream has become is by measuring the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. There are two indices used to do this--one called the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which treats the flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and another called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is more focused on the North Atlantic. The two are closely related about 90% of the time. When these indices are strongly negative, the pressure difference between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is low. This results in a weaker jet stream, allowing it to take large, meandering loops, letting cold air to spill far to the south from the Arctic into the mid-latitudes. The AO index hit -5.2 today (March 20). This is the second most extreme March value of the index since record keeping began in 1948; only an AO value of -6.3 in March 1970 was more extreme. We've had some wildly variable jet stream patterns in recent years in the Northern Hemisphere. Just last year, we had the opposite extreme in March, when our ridiculous "Summer in March" heat wave brought a week of temperatures in the 80s to the Midwest U.S. The first day of spring today in Chicago, IL is expected to have a high temperature of just 25°F--a 60 degree difference from last year's high of 85°F on March 20!


Figure 1. The jet stream is taking a large dip to the south over the Eastern U.S., allowing cold air to spill southwards and bring winter-like conditions.

Unusual winter jet stream patterns tied to Arctic sea ice loss
Unusual jet stream contortions in winter have become increasingly common in recent years, according to a March 2013 paper by Tang et al., "Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss". They found a mathematical relationship between wintertime Arctic sea ice loss and the increase in unusual jet stream patterns capable of bringing cold, snowy weather to the Eastern U.S., Western Europe, and East Asia, typical of what one sees during a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation. They theorized that sea ice loss in the Arctic promotes more evaporation, resulting in earlier snowfall in Siberia and other Arctic lands. The earlier snow insulates the soil, allowing the land to cool more rapidly. This results in a southwards shift of the jet stream and builds higher atmospheric pressures farther to the south, which increases the odds of cold spells and blocking high pressure systems that can cause extended periods of unusually cold and snowy weather in the mid-latitudes.

Related posts
From Heat Wave to Snowstorms, March Goes to Extremes by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central
Extreme jet stream causing record warmth in the east, record cold in the west (January 2013)
Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns (April 2012)
Our extreme weather: Arctic changes to blame? (December 2011)
Florida shivers; Hot Arctic-Cold Continents pattern is back (December 2010)
Jet stream moved northwards 270 miles in 22 years; climate change to blame? (June 2008)

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters
Gusty Winds
Gusty Winds
High winds create huge waves behind ice dunes on Lake Erie this last day of winter.
After the blizzard
After the blizzard
Extreme severe winterconditions in the northeast of Germany, Kap Arkona. Source: wetterzentrale

Winter Weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting AussieStorm:
Happy Harmony Day all. Around 45% of Australians are born overseas or have a parent who was born overseas. We speak over 260 languages.


oh great.. I don't have to worry about speaking in English if I go there..lol
502. VR46L
Quoting Astrometeor:
The moisture that Florida has seeketh is cometh.

Oh joy for the natives, rejoice!

...


I am surprised how quiet they are being about it , I guess they fear Jinxing it !
Quoting Astrometeor:


10 inches from what? 5 ft or 7 ft?

7ft
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


was that a forecast??? or you added it all up?

forecast for next 48hrs

more snow


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
more snow




What's with the funky circles in Mississippi and Tennessee and the ellipse in Alabama?
Geesh! Winter Storm Watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Friday morning...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Winter Storm
Watch... which is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning.

* Snow/sleet/ice accumulations... significant snowfall accumulations
of up to 3 inches or more are possible.

* Timing... from 1 PM CDT Thursday afternoon until 7 am CDT Friday
morning.

* Impacts... snow and sleet accumulations may impact travel
across portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
bootheel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
On this day 37 years ago, a violent tornado struck parts of Oakland county, Michigan. This tornado was several miles from where I live. It was rated an F4, killed 1, injured 55, and did hundreds of millions of dollars in damage in today's dollars. This was the last violent tornado to strike SE MI to this date. On average, SE MI gets a violent tornado every 5 years or so, it has been 37 years since the last F4. The last F5 in SE MI occurred all the way back on June 8th, 1953, it has been a while since one of those in my area.
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PDT WED MAR 20 2013

...A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE
OLYMPICS TODAY AND TO THE CASCADES THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WAZ518-519-211200-
/O.CON.KSEW.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-130321T1200Z/
WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-
WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
330 PM PDT WED MAR 20 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...MOUNT BAKER...STEVENS PASS...
SNOQUALMIE PASS...WHITE PASS...AND PARADISE AT MOUNT RAINIER.

* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT WARNING AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS LIKELY
THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL ALONG WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE VOLCANOES. PASSES MAY GET CLOSE TO 1 FOOT OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW BY THURSDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...HAZARDOUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS...WITH SLOW
TRAVEL AND DELAYS POSSIBLE.

* SNOW LEVEL...2500 FEET FALLING TO 1000 FEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING INDICATES THAT 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD OR 18 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
MERCER
Quoting Grothar:


I often dreamed I was the "Invisible Man". I was never quite sure what I looked like though.


Like the 'Unknown Comic'! LOL

Cold here for start of spring too. No snow at lower elevations, but lots of sleet. Lots of snow on the mountains though. Actually have a small garden at the new place, and need to get out and to try and plant some things soon to see if can grow anything! Have a few things in pots from patio of old place I may plant in ground. They should do better at the lower elevation an milder climate near the coast. Did lose a few things last winter that couldn't take it. But have a red currant, a raspberry, some strawberries and something else can't remember LOL! The best the last 2 years was the strawberry plants, though not a lot, was impressed (and SO much tastier than store bought!). But I've never had much a green thumb, but am trying!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Happy Harmony Day all. Around 45% of Australians are born overseas or have a parent who was born overseas. We speak over 260 languages.


Wow. You must have some good high schools. :)
NOAA has Wmodemo on a floater.. scripted as 79L. Test on..

Quoting Grothar:


Wow. You must have some good high schools. :)

Yeah, they're not bad :-)
Wow, already one named storm on the season!



NHC is definitely trying to inflate the seasonal totals with this one.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, already one named storm on the season!



NHC is definitely trying to inflate the seasonal totals with this one.

It's a test.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, already one named storm on the season!



NHC is definitely trying to inflate the seasonal totals with this one.


PADDING the numbers...
Tsk tsk tsk
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, already one named storm on the season!



NHC is definitely trying to inflate the seasonal totals with this one.

I was getting a little worried for when the first invest/storm would be named. We had an invest in February last year.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2013

.UPDATE...

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WHILE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED...THERE IS WELL ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN GULF. EARLIER IN THE EVENING THERE WERE
CONCERNS THAT THIS CONVECTION COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS...BUT RECENT LIGHTNING AND SATELLITE DATA NOW
INDICATE THAT THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
Still,two month for hurricane season in east pacific,but some healthy thunderstorms are forming there
Quoting wxgeek723:


PADDING the numbers...
Tsk tsk tsk

Wmodemo might mean WMO Demo for the World Meteorological Day which also celebrates the 50th anniversary of the World Weather Watch.
522. VR46L
I just love this Cant explain why .. It takes a minute to load but just wanted to share it

North Atlantic and Western Europe Night to day
Retooled forecast for West Palm Beach...

Quoting VR46L:
I just love this Cant explain why .. It takes a minute to load but just wanted to share it

North Atlantic and Western Europe Night to day

Very cool.
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's a test.


I begged to differ.

Models already have a handle on it...
526. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

Very cool.


Thanks I thought so !!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Wmodemo might mean WMO Demo for the World Meteorological Day which also celebrates the 50th anniversary of the World Weather Watch.



RA IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting and Warning and Public Weather Services
And here, we have Category 5 Wmodemo. Is forecast to be DOOM for the gulf coast, and then move over florida and strike the southeast. Then, it will move back out to see and slam the northeast. After that, its remnants will move to Michgan and flood Jeff Masters out for not blogging on it.

Yeah the satellites been posted enough, but noone included the TWO.

AT THE CURRENT TIME WHEREVER YOU ARE, HURRICANE WMODEMO WAS LOCATED SOMEWHERES IN THE CARIBBEAN. FEAR THIS HURRICANE. IT BITES.

**STARR
529. txjac
Quoting Grothar:


Wow. You must have some good high schools. :)


At the schoool my children went to grade cards went out in 56 different languages
Quoting SPLbeater:
And here, we have Category 5 Wmodemo. Is forecast to be DOOM for the gulf coast, and then move over Florida and strike the southeast. Then, it will move back out to see and slam the northeast. After that, its remnants will move to Michigan and flood Jeff Masters out for not blogging on it.

Yeah the satellites been posted enough, but noone included the TWO.

AT THE CURRENT TIME WHEREVER YOU ARE, HURRICANE WMODEMO WAS LOCATED SOMEWHERES IN THE CARIBBEAN. FEAR THIS HURRICANE. IT BITES.

**STARR

No, no flooding up here please!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I see that you have only 2 majors. You think that the low vertical instability will cause once again quantity over quality tropical systems?


Bit late on the reply, but yes, I suspect it will be.
Quoting SPLbeater:
And here, we have Category 5 Wmodemo. Is forecast to be DOOM for the gulf coast, and then move over florida and strike the southeast. Then, it will move back out to see and slam the northeast. After that, its remnants will move to Michgan and flood Jeff Masters out for not blogging on it.

Yeah the satellites been posted enough, but noone included the TWO.

AT THE CURRENT TIME WHEREVER YOU ARE, HURRICANE WMODEMO WAS LOCATED SOMEWHERES IN THE CARIBBEAN. FEAR THIS HURRICANE. IT BITES.

**STARR


I knew we would get up to the W's in names this year!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
more snow




No kidding. We have a dumping going on right now :( spring, my left hind foot!
Quoting AussieStorm:


?????


In regards to wmodemo on a floater. NHC holds an annual workshop for the WMO Region IV Hurricane area to train forecasters. This years workshop was last week and this week.
Quoting txjac:


At the schoool my children went to grade cards went out in 56 different languages


Was that in Texas?
537. wxmod
MODIS Satellite image of the Arctic north of Greenland today
Uh-Oh!

I was just looking at this saying dang.. click pic twice to really enlarge.

540. wxmod
We don't need to wait til July. MODIS north of Greenland

79L TEST TEST TEST

542. wxmod
Quoting Skyepony:
I was just looking at this saying dang.. click pic twice to really enlarge.



Yikes!!!
No matter what the weather does, it is getting blamed on global warming... man-made global warming. If it's a warm winter... global warming. If it's the coldest March we've had in years, it's due to melting sea ice, caused by global warming. If we get many tropical storms or not many, it's global warming.

There is nothing but politics and greed in the global warming issue. It's not all coming from energy companies, either. Useless eyesores being constructed, such as fields of windmills and solar panels are not the answer. Homes can operate off the grid using fuel cells. Utilities should be building more FAST nuclear reactors for power. Coal is burning much cleaner than ever before.

CO2 helps plant growth which adds oxygen back into the atmosphere, balancing the two gasses.

There is also a lot of monkey business in data gathering for global temps. For example, in arctic Canada, there are 635 weather stations. Out of those, the US reads only 35... guess where they are located? Near water and any cities, where temps are locally warmer. The colder 600 stations are virtually ignored by the US, and read much colder temperatures.

We've only been keeping satellite data since 1979, a mere pittance compared to the age of the earth. Sorry, Jeff, but the idea of man-made global warming is a hoax... you know it and so do others in your field. Science isn't science anymore... it's politics. Many polled scientists on this topic aren't even in the field. I could go on, but I'm trying to make a post, not a blog.
Quoting wxmod:


Yikes!!!


That rift is almost twice as wide than this morning. Posted about it earlier hoping I wasn't seeing that.
545. wxmod
MODIS satellite image north of Canada-Alaska today.

Looks like I'll be chasing in NE Texas on Friday. Should be a decent warm front setup.

12z NAM is showing a cell forming near Tyler, Texas around 4-5pm.

0-1ehi looks okay, but with CAPE nearing 3,000 jkg, 0-3ehi near 7, any storm that does form could certainly become tornadic. It all depends on the cap and if storms can ride the warm front instead of crossing over it into a cooler more stable environment.


547. wxmod
Quoting stratcat:
No matter what the weather does, it is getting blamed on global warming... man-made global warming. If it's a warm winter... global warming. If it's the coldest March we've had in years, it's due to melting sea ice, caused by global warming. If we get many tropical storms or not many, it's global warming.

There is nothing but politics and greed in the global warming issue. It's not all coming from energy companies, either. Useless eyesores being constructed, such as fields of windmills and solar panels are not the answer. Homes can operate off the grid using fuel cells. Utilities should be building more FAST nuclear reactors for power. Coal is burning much cleaner than ever before.

CO2 helps plant growth which adds oxygen back into the atmosphere, balancing the two gasses.

There is also a lot of monkey business in data gathering for global temps. For example, in arctic Canada, there are 635 weather stations. Out of those, the US reads only 35... guess where they are located? Near water and any cities, where temps are locally warmer. The colder 600 stations are virtually ignored by the US, and read much colder temperatures.

We've only been keeping satellite data since 1979, a mere pittance compared to the age of the earth. Sorry, Jeff, but the idea of man-made global warming is a hoax... you know it and so do others in your field. Science isn't science anymore... it's politics. Many polled scientists on this topic aren't even in the field. I could go on, but I'm trying to make a post, not a blog.


We're all in this together. If you look at the satellite photos near your post, they tell nothing but the truth, no politics, no spin. The arctic melting has already begun and, in my opinion, we are both in for some hard times. Cover your eyes or open them; I don't care!
Quoting Skyepony:
I was just looking at this saying dang.. click pic twice to really enlarge.


The recent blocking pattern certainly hasn't helped things at all. Temps are running way above average in the polar regions near Greenland.

heavy rainfall setting up in the long range..

18z GFS

Quoting tornadodude:
Looks like I'll be chasing in NE Texas on Friday. Should be a decent warm front setup.

12z NAM is showing a cell forming near Tyler, Texas around 4-5pm.

0-1ehi looks okay, but with CAPE nearing 3,000 jkg, 0-3ehi near 7, any storm that does form could certainly become tornadic. It all depends on the cap and if storms can ride the warm front instead of crossing over it into a cooler more stable environment.



Watch for that EML in the neighborhood of 700 mb. As it's modeled right now, it doesn't look too bad, but EMLs have been the bane of many a stormy forecast around these parts. Of course, knowing you, you're already on that. :P
Quoting stratcat:
No matter what the weather does, it is getting blamed on global warming... man-made global warming. If it's a warm winter... global warming. If it's the coldest March we've had in years, it's due to melting sea ice, caused by global warming. If we get many tropical storms or not many, it's global warming.


Unfortunately, that's a communication problem the media and experts focus on the wrong information.

The best indicator for temperature change are snow packs, sea ice, and continental ice, all of which are decreasing on the whole.


There is nothing but politics and greed in the global warming issue. It's not all coming from energy companies, either. Useless eyesores being constructed, such as fields of windmills and solar panels are not the answer. Homes can operate off the grid using fuel cells. Utilities should be building more FAST nuclear reactors for power. Coal is burning much cleaner than ever before.


While I actually agree with the second half of this paragraph, windmills and solar plants are not useless eyesores. Fuel cells still produce CO2, and "Clean Coal" has a physical limit to how clean it can become in thermodynamic efficiency, and it still makes CO2 no matter how clean it gets. Just getting more efficient will make less CO2 per unit energy, but a couple percent is not enough to matter.

CO2 helps plant growth which adds oxygen back into the atmosphere, balancing the two gasses.


I used to think the same thing. It is true for lots of plants, but not all.

There is also a lot of monkey business in data gathering for global temps. For example, in arctic Canada, there are 635 weather stations. Out of those, the US reads only 35... guess where they are located? Near water and any cities, where temps are locally warmer. The colder 600 stations are virtually ignored by the US, and read much colder temperatures.


I don't know enough about that to comment, except you're probably being lied to or something.

Only stations that have a certain number of years of record keeping are used for long term comparisons, because you can't just make up data for stations made more recently.


We've only been keeping satellite data since 1979, a mere pittance compared to the age of the earth. Sorry, Jeff, but the idea of man-made global warming is a hoax... you know it and so do others in your field. Science isn't science anymore... it's politics. Many polled scientists on this topic aren't even in the field. I could go on, but I'm trying to make a post, not a blog.


1, explain the melting and sea level rise if there's no warming.

2, explain the warming's cause. If you could prove it was the Sun or geology or some other natural force, I'd be happy and sad at the same time. Happy because it would mean it's not our fault. Sad because it would mean there's little we can do about it.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Watch for that EML in the neighborhood of 700 mb. As it's modeled right now, it doesn't look too bad, but EMLs have been the bane of many a stormy forecast around these parts. Of course, knowing you, you're already on that. :P


haha yeah that is my main concern!

I'm glad to see the NAM breaking out a cell anyway, but the eml is definitely my only real concern. Might as well give it a shot, right?
Quoting Grothar:


Was that in Texas?



I'm guessing it's New York, that's where all the legal immigrants go.

Texas gets mostly illegals from Mexico, so they all speak Spanish.
Quoting SPLbeater:
And here, we have Category 5 Wmodemo. Is forecast to be DOOM for the gulf coast, and then move over florida and strike the southeast. Then, it will move back out to see and slam the northeast. After that, its remnants will move to Michgan and flood Jeff Masters out for not blogging on it.

Yeah the satellites been posted enough, but noone included the TWO.

AT THE CURRENT TIME WHEREVER YOU ARE, HURRICANE WMODEMO WAS LOCATED SOMEWHERES IN THE CARIBBEAN. FEAR THIS HURRICANE. IT BITES.

**STARR


if it were real then yeah, doom for some, especially if it moved into GOM...nice scenario btw..lol
556. etxwx
Quoting RTSplayer:



I'm guessing it's New York, that's where all the legal immigrants go.

Texas gets mostly illegals from Mexico, so they all speak Spanish.



Uh...no. Houston is a very international city with a major medical center, top tier universities, headquarters for many businesses who do business internationally, and it has quite a vibrant international cultural scene.

From Wikipedia: Over 90 languages are spoken in the city. According to the 2010 Census, whites made up 51% of Houston's population; 26% of the total population were non-Hispanic whites. Blacks or African Americans made up 24% of Houston's population. American Indians made up 0.7% of Houston's population. Asians made up 6% of Houston's population (1.7% Vietnamese, 1.3% Chinese, 1.3% Indian, 0.9% Pakistani, 0.4% Filipino, 0.3% Korean, 0.1% Japanese), while Pacific Islanders made up 0.1%. Individuals from some other race made up 15.2% of the city's population, of which 0.2% were non-Hispanic. Individuals from two or more races made up 3.3% of the city's population. People of Hispanic origin, regardless of race, made up 44% of Houston's population[108] Also, there are many Bhutanese people of Nepalese origin are residing in Houston since 2008.
Quoting wxgeek723:


I begged to differ.

Models already have a handle on it...

lol I better get the shutters up

u know with how things look seems like me may get plenty of those types of storms this year
I loved this commercial. Wonder if it will show this summer.

Hopefully Jim never appears here.

Quoting etxwx:



Uh...no. Houston is a very international city with a major medical center, top tier universities, headquarters for many businesses who do business internationally, and it has quite a vibrant international cultural scene.

From Wikipedia: Over 90 languages are spoken in the city. According to the 2010 Census, whites made up 51% of Houston's population; 26% of the total population were non-Hispanic whites. Blacks or African Americans made up 24% of Houston's population. American Indians made up 0.7% of Houston's population. Asians made up 6% of Houston's population (1.7% Vietnamese, 1.3% Chinese, 1.3% Indian, 0.9% Pakistani, 0.4% Filipino, 0.3% Korean, 0.1% Japanese), while Pacific Islanders made up 0.1%. Individuals from some other race made up 15.2% of the city's population, of which 0.2% were non-Hispanic. Individuals from two or more races made up 3.3% of the city's population. People of Hispanic origin, regardless of race, made up 44% of Houston's population[108] Also, there are many Bhutanese people of Nepalese origin are residing in Houston since 2008.

My favorite restaurants are Indian, Viet and Singapore Chinese, not necessarily in that order. At one time Churrascos may have had the best steaks, but I haven't been there in a [long] while.

Edit: For desert Churrascos had the best tres leches, but ras malai after a good vindaloo is hard to beat.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


alright...I get the 17 in there but would not want to have empty space for H and MH
16-17
8-9
3
EPA orders Enbridge to dredge river two years after oil spill

VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Mar. 14 2013, 10:33 PM EDT


More than 21/2 years after a Canadian pipeline rupture spilled heavy oil into a Michigan river, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is ordering Calgary-based Enbridge to perform additional dredging to remove submerged oil.

The agency said it has repeatedly found oil in sections of the Kalamazoo River.

“The dredging required by EPA’s order will prevent submerged oil from migrating to downstream areas where it will be more difficult or impossible to recover,” the EPA said Thursday.

The agency is also ordering Enbridge – proponent of the controversial Northern Gateway pipeline through northern British Columbia – to maintain sediment traps throughout the river to capture oil outside the dredge areas. The agency gave the company 15 days to provide a work plan, and said dredging should begin this spring.

The July, 2010, spill near Marshall, Mich., has dogged the company as it proceeds through a federal review of the Northern Gateway to deliver oil-sands products to a tanker port in Kitimat, B.C. The ability to clean up diluted bitumen from Alberta’s oil sands has been raised at the hearings by project opponents.

The EPA issued a searing report last year criticizing the company’s spill response.
563. wxmod
This is a satellite photo of Greenland (lower left) and arctic sea ice (upper right). Taken by MODIS Aqua satellite today. Last year, this area of sea ice was solid til the end of summer.

Quoting TomTaylor:
16-17
8-9
3


you're in now... the 39th one listed
Quoting wxmod:
This is a satellite photo of Greenland (lower left) and arctic sea ice (upper right). Taken by MODIS Aqua satellite today. Last year, this area of sea ice was solid til the end of summer.



Based on the events in the previous 6 years, complete meltdown could happen in 2 to 4 years, counting this year. We should expect a more dynamic situation over the next few years as the ice keeps getting thinner and thinner.

Figure we'll probably average 700km^3 to 900km^3 of sea ice loss per year from now on, though it only takes one absurd down year like 2007 or 2010 to make most of it go away in one swoop.

I figure Greenland and Iceland will buffer some of the sea ice loss, but this will cause the continental melt to continue to increase. Expect a large melt in Greenland ice cap again this year, with more videos of "unprecedented" melt water run-off.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


if it were real then yeah, doom for some, especially if it moved into GOM...nice scenario btw..lol


What do you mean if it was real? I showed you the satellite. Didnt you see the eye? Could have overlooked it, it is a small pinhole...Its headed straight for YOU. Better prepare.
Quoting SPLbeater:


What do you mean if it was real? I showed you the satellite. Didnt you see the eye? Could have overlooked it, it is a small pinhole...Its headed straight for YOU. Better prepare.


LOL
crap!

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
crap!


TWC is going to end up running out of names at this rate! Just looking at the isobar structure on the storm, looks like it would be a warm seclusion on this run, but I'd have to go and look at other products to confirm.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

TWC is going to end up running out of names at this rate! Just looking at the isobar structure on the storm, looks like it would be a warm seclusion on this run, but I'd have to go and look at other products to confirm.

Swing and a miss. :P

Cold fronts beginning to stay N of the islands.... ITCZ over SA and Pac beginning their E to W movement... temperatures down here climbing over 90degrees...

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you're in now... the 39th one listed



Put me in for 15/8/2


Surfing season coming to an end.... no active gym for the next 6 months...

Quoting 1900hurricane:

TWC is going to end up running out of names at this rate! Just looking at the isobar structure on the storm, looks like it would be a warm seclusion on this run, but I'd have to go and look at other products to confirm.


I just can't take this snow no more....
Quoting sunlinepr:
Cold fronts beginning to stay N of the islands.... ITCZ over SA and Pac beginning their E to W movement... temperatures down here climbing over 90degrees...



nice and quiet on the blog this eve. I collected a nice bit of rainfall for my cistern on that one in the Fl Keys. Nice sat animation. - take care
577. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:


Based on the events in the previous 6 years, complete meltdown could happen in 2 to 4 years, counting this year. We should expect a more dynamic situation over the next few years as the ice keeps getting thinner and thinner.

Figure we'll probably average 700km^3 to 900km^3 of sea ice loss per year from now on, though it only takes one absurd down year like 2007 or 2010 to make most of it go away in one swoop.

I figure Greenland and Iceland will buffer some of the sea ice loss, but this will cause the continental melt to continue to increase. Expect a large melt in Greenland ice cap again this year, with more videos of "unprecedented" melt water run-off.


Unfortunately, I think it will be ice free this year. Seems like it's been melting from the bottom all winter.
Quoting wxmod:


Unfortunately, I think it will be ice free this year. Seems like it's been melting from the bottom all winter.


I wouldn't be completely surprised. I've said maybe 2014 for a few years now. Really expecting to see a ridiculously low percent left this year.
Quoting wxmod:


Unfortunately, I think it will be ice free this year. Seems like it's been melting from the bottom all winter.


We're going to be in for some really weird blocking patterns...
alright Gnite... se y'all tomorrow

Quoting Skyepony:


I wouldn't be completely surprised. I've said maybe 2014 for a few years now. Really expecting to see a ridiculously low percent left this year.


2015 skye arctic will be ice free in summer with a 60 percent ice cap left in greenland and down to 20 percent by 2020

faster and faster
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


2015 skye arctic will be ice free in summer with a 60 percent ice cap left in greenland and down to 20 percent by 2020

faster and faster

Now *that* is an aggressive prediction. Much more aggressive than I'd make. I figure the Arctic will be "ice free" briefly in 2017. I base this on my ability to guess really, really well...once in a while.
i really hope iam wrong

but we shall see

got to remember we have done in a hundred years what normally takes ten thousand years by mother nature

can't do those things without expecting something weird to happen and we have already seen weird now we just got to wait on even more weirder things to come
Quoting Skyepony:


I wouldn't be completely surprised. I've said maybe 2014 for a few years now. Really expecting to see a ridiculously low percent left this year.


Would love to see what it looks like in Greenland where I was at in the early 70's .. would like to see the differences of the Ice Cap compared to the coast now verses then !!!
Time to Bail, You All have a good whatever. Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Sleep Well
as land is exposed by retreating ice localized warming will increase and spread out under the remaining ice as the summer sun increase the temps of the rock surface increasing the melt faster and faster

also as ice melts the height of the ice will lower what is it 3000 m highest point as it lowers it will then get into warmer layers of the atomsphere again increasing the melt

also melt run off is not only running into the sea but creating vast areas of melt water under the sheet which has been observed during summer melt as vast surface lakes that disappear in the matter of hours once the water forms a channel all the way to the surface under the ice

this in turn allows the ice to move faster and faster therefore increasing the effect of the disappearing ice
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as land is exposed by retreating ice localized warming will increase and spread out under the remaining ice as the summer sun increase the temps of the rock surface increasing the melt faster and faster

also as ice melts the height of the ice will lower what is it 3000 m highest point as it lowers it will then get into warmer layers of the atomsphere again increasing the melt

also melt run off is not only running into the sea but creating vast areas of melt water under the sheet which has been observed during summer melt as vast surface lakes that disappear in the matter of hours once the water forms a channel all the way to the surface under the ice

this in turn allows the ice to move faster and faster therefore increasing the effect of the disappearing ice

So I guess Greenland is living up to it's name. How did it get it's name anyways?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:21 PM WST March 21 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, A low [15U] was located near 14.0S 96.8E is moving west southwest. Conditions are moderately favorable for the low and it may develop gales on the southern side of the low later on Thursday and become a tropical cyclone early on Friday before weakening again late on Friday.

The system is expected to cross 90E and move out of the Western Region during Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
Friday: HIGH
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: VERY LOW (Reason: out of area of responsibility)
Photo of a funnel cloud (probably a waterspout) off the southern coast of Oahu in Hawaii early this evening.



Image courtesy of Annette Hollingshead
Quoting AussieStorm:

So I guess Greenland is living up to it's name. How did it get it's name anyways?


Chamber of Commerce stuff... they promoted the area as "Greenland" to promote development and encourage settlement... the first land boom lie? Call it green and they will come :)

Good evening mate!
Good Morning folks....................
friday it might get a lil rough up along the NE coast...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COVERAGES
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. HEAVY RAINS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL AS A SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION
ON TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE ADVERTISED AS
THE WEEKEND DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

$$
Quoting stratcat:
No matter what the weather does, it is getting blamed on global warming... man-made global warming. If it's a warm winter... global warming. If it's the coldest March we've had in years, it's due to melting sea ice, caused by global warming. If we get many tropical storms or not many, it's global warming.

There is nothing but politics and greed in the global warming issue. It's not all coming from energy companies, either. Useless eyesores being constructed, such as fields of windmills and solar panels are not the answer. Homes can operate off the grid using fuel cells. Utilities should be building more FAST nuclear reactors for power. Coal is burning much cleaner than ever before.

CO2 helps plant growth which adds oxygen back into the atmosphere, balancing the two gasses.

There is also a lot of monkey business in data gathering for global temps. For example, in arctic Canada, there are 635 weather stations. Out of those, the US reads only 35... guess where they are located? Near water and any cities, where temps are locally warmer. The colder 600 stations are virtually ignored by the US, and read much colder temperatures.

We've only been keeping satellite data since 1979, a mere pittance compared to the age of the earth. Sorry, Jeff, but the idea of man-made global warming is a hoax... you know it and so do others in your field. Science isn't science anymore... it's politics. Many polled scientists on this topic aren't even in the field. I could go on, but I'm trying to make a post, not a blog.


I'm blaming H.A.A.R.P. on global warming, and all the supporters on Climate Change, Global Warming, etc, are agents of the Government deflecting the real climate changer which is H.A.A.R.P.
Many who believe this is caused by Carbon or man made have been programmed someway by the Government.
Grant monies also have made their way to greedy college professors to have a lavious lifestyle, or an abundance of low paid assistants to further the Government theories.
Then, there are minions! these are the ones who don't have a life and spend their days combing the internet getting the false information the above individuals have posted as fact.

Quoting trunkmonkey:


I'm blaming H.A.A.R.P. on global warming, and all the supporters on Climate Change, Global Warming, etc, are agents of the Government deflecting the real climate changer which is H.A.A.R.P.
Many who believe this is caused by Carbon or man made have been programmed someway by the Government.
Grant monies also have made their way to greedy college professors to have a lavious lifestyle, or an abundance of low paid assistants to further the Government theories.
Then, there are minions! these are the ones who don't have a life and spend their days combing the internet getting the false information the above individuals have posted as fact.



sounds crazy eh!

Quoting indianrivguy:


Chamber of Commerce stuff... they promoted the area as "Greenland" to promote development and encourage settlement... the first land boom lie? Call it green and they will come :)

Good evening mate!

Evening mate!
I found these 2 lots of information about Greenland and it's name.

The name Greenland (Grønland) has its roots in this colonization and is widely attributed to Erik the Red (the Inuit call it Kalaallit Nunaat, "Our Land"), and there has been speculation on its meaning. Some have argued that the coasts in question were literally green at the time due to the medieval climate optimum, in as much as the Viking settlers practised some form of an agrarian economy. Others have suspected that the name was in part a promotional effort to lure people into settling there by making it sound more attractive. The condition of Greenland in the 10th century may have been more hospitable than today.


The population of Greenland in the 12th Century was 10,000 - and these would have had to feed themselves. And that refers to Viking settlers. According to http://www.greenland-guide.gl/leif2000/history.ht m the Inuit only appeared on the coasts around 1350 - around the time of the abandonment of the Western coast settlements. This indicates (to me, at least) that the climate was changing and the Viking way of life wes becoming unsupportable, while the Inuit way was able to succeed. The Inuit would have been further north during the climatic warming, and returning south as the conditions worsened.
Morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A chillier morning again, though high's expected around 70 later on.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Steak and eggs, oatmeal with brown sugar, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Moisture increases today and peaks tommorow as a trough moves close to PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST THU MAR 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...AS PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES
AS WELL LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WETTER
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DRIER TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT TH REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH 21/16Z. PASSING -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF PR AND USVI THROUGH 21/14Z...THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 21/16Z
AND 21/20Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PR. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE BLW 10
KFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDE TO CONTINUE
TODAY. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 83 75 / 10 0 60 40
STT 84 75 78 75 / 10 30 30 40
Storm system moving through eastern Victoria.




Loop
Good morning. Saturday is the day to watch this week/weekend regarding severe weather, SPC has a large area outlined in a slight risk:



Only 15% probabilities now due to model differences, but their discussion hinted at these probabilities going up once details become more clear. Damaging wind will be the biggest threat with isolated tornadoes also possible.

You can read their full discussion here.
Good morning everybody. Two articles to read, if you like, with your morning coffee. Have a nice day!

Natural Climate Swings Contribute More to Increased Monsoon Rainfall Than Global Warming

Mar. 20, 2013. Natural swings in the climate have significantly intensified Northern Hemisphere monsoon rainfall, showing that these swings must be taken into account for climate predictions in the coming decades, a new study finds.

...Current theory predicts that the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation should weaken under anthropogenic global warming.

Wang and his colleagues, however, found that over the past 30 years, the summer monsoon circulation, as well as the Hadley and Walker circulations, have all substantially intensified. This intensification has resulted in significantly greater global summer monsoon rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere than predicted from greenhouse-gas-induced warming alone: namely a 9.5% increase, compared to the anthropogenic predicted contribution of 2.6% per degree of global warming.


Most of the recent intensification is attributable to a cooling of the eastern Pacific that began in 1998. ...

Read the whole article



Significant Contribution of Greenland's Peripheral Glaciers to Sea-Level Rise

Mar. 18, 2013. Glaciers at the edge of Greenland which are not connected to its huge ice sheet, or can be clearly separated from it, are contributing to sea-level rise much more than previously thought. Scientists from the University of Zurich together with colleagues from Denmark have found that, though these peripheral glaciers make up just 5-7 % of total ice coverage on the land mass, they account for up to 20% of the rise in sea level created by the region's melting.

Read the whole article


This is the Elephant Foot Glacier from space. (Credit: Landsat ETM; image editing: Tobias Bolch (University of Zurich))
its snowing at my house this morning at 7am
HOLY COW. Major tornado has struck far southern NSW.

Major damage at Barooga (northwest of Yarrawonga south east of here) Reports of tornado damage with houses obliterated,people trapped in the cars from fallen trees, reports of a caravan in a tree with persons stuck inside, power lines down every where.

NSW Police Albury/South Western NSW (Sturt HWY) Live Audio Feed

Video of the Tornado.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Glad it wasn't near you, Aussie!

Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie, have a great Friday!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Glad it wasn't near you, Aussie!

Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie, have a great Friday!

This storm system is heading my way tomorrow. Let's hope it's lost a lot of energy by the time it get's here. Of course I'll keep everyone informed.

1st reports coming in now.

Tornados tear through Victorian towns
Several tornados have ripped through parts of Victoria's north-east, destroying buildings and injuring several people.
The State Emergency Service (SES) says at least two tornados moved between Cobram and Yarrawonga about 8:00pm (AEDT) this evening.

Lachlan Quick from the SES says there have been a number of injuries.

He says Rutherglen was one of the most badly affected towns and a number of buildings have been affected.

"I know there are quite a lot of holiday homes that are unoccupied and that may have assisted us with fewer injuries," he said.

"But certainly at his stage it's very busy up there and we are issuing further volunteer units up there at the moment."
2013 ABC

................................................. .............................................
The latest update from NSW SES State Headquarters states:

NSW SES Update from southern NSW.

In Barooga up to 80% of the Golf Hotel roof has been dislodged. Trees on several vehicles along Golf Course road. Reports of homes damaged. The Post Office roof has been dislodged. Cobram-Barooga Golf Resort %u2013 extensive roof damage.

At Mulwala township near Corowa a caravan park has had several vans blown over. At Kissins Reserve camp site %u2013 multiple caravans blown over. NSW SES and Fire and Rescue on scene.

More updates as they come to hand. If you are driving in the Riverina area or NE Vic be aware trees may be down on roads.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


I'm blaming H.A.A.R.P. on global warming, and all the supporters on Climate Change, Global Warming, etc, are agents of the Government deflecting the real climate changer which is H.A.A.R.P.
Many who believe this is caused by Carbon or man made have been programmed someway by the Government.
Grant monies also have made their way to greedy college professors to have a lavious lifestyle, or an abundance of low paid assistants to further the Government theories.
Then, there are minions! these are the ones who don't have a life and spend their days combing the internet getting the false information the above individuals have posted as fact.



Seriously? Grant money and greedy college professors? This whole rant comes off as little more than anti-intellectualism and a lack of knowledge about science. I actually don't feel like arguing with you; I honestly just feel sorry for you.
you are so rite..these crazy money hungry people playing god till mother earth bites them in the as*,dont they know when they mess with nature it ALLWAYS go wrong
Quoting AGWcreationists:
I believe CO2 is a greenhouse gas, one only needs to look at Venus. However, I am not sure that the human-caused increase concentrations in our atmosphere are signficant enough to cause the warming we have seen. Given that the Arctic has warmed in the past, IMO it is the result of the increase in solar cycles we have seen over the last 150 years or so, with ups and downs.

I do think ocean acidification reprents a potential serious problem. However, CO2 was much, much higher in geologic history and life did not end. Life will change in response to these environmental changes. It will not end, but it may change in ways detrimental to humanity.
ITS NOT HUMANS ITS HAARP AND THE GOVERNMENT LOOK IT UP
It is now March 28 and it is warming up a bit. Anyway, has the high pressure in Greenland weakened a little and what is its future/ Also, can someone send me a link to a map where I can monitor the North Atlantic myself, both the surface and an applicable altitude?
618. CFCs
I came here late so please forgive me if I repeat any questions people asked already.

If the current AO index -5.2 is linked to Arctic sea ice loss, then what the AO -6.3 in March 1970 is linked to? Too much ice? There was more than 80% more ice at that time, right?

Also why this unusual winter jet stream pattern has to happen at 80% ice loss and didn't happen at 40% or 79.99% loss?