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U.S. has its 20th warmest winter, and an unusually quiet start to the year

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:51 PM GMT on March 13, 2013

It was another warm winter for the U.S. during December 2012 - February 2013, ranking as the 20th warmest winter since records began in 1895. For comparison, the previous "non-winter of 2011 - 2012" was the 4th warmest. And after an unusually intense period of extreme weather during 2011 and 2012, during January - February 2013 the U.S. had its quietest two-month period for extreme weather in over three years, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI). The index tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI during February 2013 was 13%, and was 14% during January. The last time the U.S. had a two-month period with so little extreme weather was March - April 2009. On average, about 20% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI. In 2012, just two months (October and February) had below-average CEI, so we're off to a great start to 2013. Of course, February wasn't completely without notable weather:

Winter Storm Nemo on February 8 - 9 brought the heaviest snows to Connecticut and central Long Island since the iconic Blizzard of 1888. Aon Benfield estimated damages from the storm at $100+ million.

On February 10, a violent EF-4 tornado carved a path through Hattiesburg and Oak Grove, Mississippi, injuring 82, but miraculously not killing anyone. Aon Benfield estimated damages from the storm at $100+ million.

California had its driest January–February on record.

Georgia had its wettest February on record, leading to dramatic improvements in their multi-year drought.

February 2013 was a quite ordinary one for temperatures, ranking as the 49th warmest February since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. No states had a top-ten warmest or coldest February. However, the February temperatures were warm enough to make the 12-month period ending in February 2013 the warmest such 12-month period on record. Forty-two of the 48 contiguous U.S. states had top-ten warmth during the past twelve months, with eight states posting record warmth.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for the winter of 2012 - 2013. Florida, Delaware, and Vermont each had one of their ten warmest winters on record; no states had a top-ten coldest winter. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Not driving anywhere today! Snow buries cars in New Haven, CT at the Premier Hotel & Suites on Long Wharf on February 9, 2013, due to Winter Storm Nemo. The storm caused $100+ million in damage. Image credit: wunderphotographer phototex.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Happy B-day Pcola! Hope you had a good one!!!!
Quoting Birthmark:

If you don't know, then what was your semi-rant above all about? The order is: Get information, then rant...if necessary.

Good luck!


This comment is really funny and an opportunity to point out the 1984-like nature of our world. My semi-rant (can a question be a rant?) was that the information I referred to of IS NOT SPOKEN OF and not readilly available. That is why I was asking Dr. Masters to discuss it, since he has access to that information. And, your "good luck" comment is classic 1984. So, there is basically a yes or no answer to what I asked. It would be nice to get that answer, but it would be nicer to get a scientific answer, based on data and statisics. Since it appears that no one in this forum has any real information, it is unlikely that I will get anything from them (nor did I really expect to, since my question was directed to Dr. Masters). They certainly act like they know something, though, don't they?
Quoting barbamz:

But today the weather in Rome was sunny. Happy and relaxed atmosphere, the journalists were telling :-)


that was for a day ago or so

Quoting TomTaylor:
I still can't get over the ridiculous blocking that will be taking place over Greenland and the Arctic region.

Below I have posted the 5-day GFS 250mb jet forecast. Generally speaking, the jet should flow from west to east. In the image I posted below, the jet is seen flowing from the southern tip of Greenland backwards across Canada, over the north pole into northern Russia and then back across the pole where it shoots back down along the eastern side of Greenland and across Iceland. This is the most ridiculously amplified configuration I have ever seen.



Using the ECMWF at 120hrs we also see a ridiculous 1065mb surface high sitting directly on top of the North pole. I think I heard someone mention this was a classic negative AO setup...they are wrong. This is an extreme negative AO setup. Model forecasts place the AO around 4-5 standard deviations below normal, which would be the lowest it has reached all winter.




It really doesn't get more ridiculous than this. Arctic sea ice will take also be taking a big hit from this. 2m Temperature anomalies in the Baffin Bay will be peaking around 60 degrees above normal.




Tom, is it your business to prove EVERYONE and EVERYTHING wrong??..you are even going after the models now?? LOL..I have never seen you come on here and say "you're right"..not trying to be mean or anything so please dont take it that way..you are intelligent and you do know your stuff but I always sense you go out your way to make a point and win any disagreement

Quoting yonzabam:


This poster is an obvious troll. Making irrational non sequiturs is a troll tactic.


And I guess that asking for real information is, too?
I guess that the troll tag for a person requesting information would be appropriate in a 1984-style forum.
Large "gobs of slush" falling from sky here in Middle TN... weird!

that does not make sense to me...
the track is going to eventually make the storm just go backwards the same path it took going forward?
lots of rain..18z GFS..

240 hours


through 360 hours
Is this damn winter ever going to end. Tonight through tomorrow 3-5 inches snow on top of the 3 last night. Then Sunday-Monday up to 14 inches and this total keeps going up and now temps forecast to go well below zero. Now for next Thursday-Friday heavy snow is possible in the forecast. Make it stop
Quoting DoctorDave1:
"It was another warm winter for the U.S. during December 2012 - February 2013, ranking as the 20th warmest winter since records began in 1895."

So, Dr. Masters, I ask you, from a completely unbiased perspective, it is possible to have had the 20th warmest winter given where the computer models say we are supposed to be? And, where would this period rank statistically with respect to the projected mean of the models created, say, 10 years ago? These are the scientific questions that have to be answered, instead of the rhetoric bombardment constantly received from the media.


Well your first question doesn't make a whole lot of sense from a climatological perspective. Climate models don't predict what a particular day, month, or even year will be like. Natural variations introduce far too much noise to make any such specific predictions. Climate models predict likelihoods, and have error bars. Aside from that, since climate models are based on long term averages a single warm or cold season doesn't really impact climate projections (it would take a decade of such abnormalities, for example). So asking "is it possible for a *short time period* to be *warmer or colder* based on what the computer models predicted?" isn't a useful question because the answer will always be "yes".

Your second question also isn't very useful, as again your trying to take a single season (dominated by short term weather patterns) and trying to compare it to a long term climatological average. You can do it, but it doesn't give any useful information. However, to satisfy your curiosity yes this winter does fit within the projections (you can verify against the IPCC projections).

And no, those aren't "the questions that need to be answered" because they aren't really relevant to climate science. A single freezing winter or single scalding summer doesn't mean much to the timescales that climate science deals with. A warming climate will still have extremes occurring, including cold snaps.
Some good news, and with that good night from abroad!

U.S. Solar Grew 76% in 2012 Led by Utility-Scale Projects

By Ehren Goossens - Mar 14, 2013 5:01 AM GMT+0100

U.S. solar panel installations grew 76 percent in 2012 to 3.3 gigawatts, representing a tenth of the global market, led by large-scale projects in the desert southwest, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association.

In 2013, photovoltaic installations are expected to grow 29 percent to reach 4.3 gigawatts along with 946 megawatts of concentrating solar thermal power, which uses mirrors to focus the sun’s energy to drive generators, the Washington-based trade group forecast today in a statement. SEIA said Dec. 11 it had expected installations to grow to 4 gigawats this year.


Read the whole article on Bloombergs
Quoting ncstorm:



Tom, is it your business to prove EVERYONE and EVERYTHING wrong??..you are even going after the models now?? LOL..I have never seen you come on here and say "you're right"..not trying to be mean or anything so please dont take it that way..you are intelligent and you do know your stuff but I always sense you go out your way to make a point and win any disagreement

Nope, you're wrong :)

I was addressing the ridiculousness of the pattern, nowhere did I say the models were being wrong, read again if you need to.

You do have a point though. Usually when I post it's in disagreement. I don't see much use in posting unless I have a different perspective to bring to the table. Repeating information is a complete waste of time to me.
CPC

6-10 day temp



6-10 day Precip
Quoting PedleyCA:
Beware the Ides of March IoM
It's been great Ped....Thanks for being a friend... Take care
Quoting TomTaylor:
Nope, you're wrong :)

I was addressing the ridiculousness of the pattern, nowhere did I say the models were being wrong, read again if you need to.

You do have a point though. Usually when I post it's in disagreement. I don't see much use in posting unless I have a different perspective to bring to the table. Repeating information is a complete waste of time to me.


LOL..well, I have seen you post a lot and you are very knowledgeable about the weather..you should definitely start posting in "agreement" and provide your analysis..you really bring an expertise to weather, something I never claim to have, thank goodness :)
517. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
CPC

6-10 day temp



6-10 day Precip


The 8-14 day is rather blue too.. and about 50/50 on Green v Brown



Quoting DoctorDave1:


This comment is really funny and an opportunity to point out the 1984-like nature of our world. My semi-rant (can a question be a rant?) was that the information I referred to of IS NOT SPOKEN OF and not readilly available. That is why I was asking Dr. Masters to discuss it, since he has access to that information. And, your "good luck" comment is classic 1984. So, there is basically a yes or no answer to what I asked. It would be nice to get that answer, but it would be nicer to get a scientific answer, based on data and statisics. Since it appears that no one in this forum has any real information, it is unlikely that I will get anything from them (nor did I really expect to, since my question was directed to Dr. Masters). They certainly act like they know something, though, don't they?

How dramatic! Inaccurate, but dramatic.

In addition to getting the name of the Blog Author wrong (despite his name being prominently displayed), your poorly worded questions implies that the models and current winter temperature are somehow at odds. That, along with the "unbiased perspective" remark immediately screams AGW-denialist. It's a very clever ploy that allows the denialist the opportunity to play the "what? I was just asking" victim card.

The answers to your questions are easily found on line. Dr. Masters included a link for the current winter in his blog post above. The climatological projections you seek are available here. You might be surprised to find out that there are several projections for different scenarios.

Again, good luck.
520. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


the drought monitor Animation has lessen in some areas..still a ways to go but the rains and snows that have been wreaking havoc for some actually have been very beneficial.


Its an Interesting Graphic , A right dent was put in the exceptional area and Quite a few of the bands have decreased too . Has to really great news for the areas effected !
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..well, I have seen you post a lot and you are very knowledgeable about the weather..you should definitely start posting in "agreement" and provide your analysis..you really bring an expertise to weather, something I never claim to have, thank goodness :)
Thanks

If you click on my name you'll find that I have written a few blogs where I explained my thoughts and analysis. I never really got into it, however, because I usually had so much to say that it would take me forever to write out a blog. Additionally, I found that most of the points I would bring up would have already been brought up in the NHC's discussion or Levi's tidbit. It just felt like a waste of my time and the time of the few who actually read my blog.

I'll work on posting more of my own thoughts and topics for discussion though. Lately I have been more focused on just trying to set the record straight which tends to kill the mood and make people unhappy more than anything else.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Nope, you're wrong :)

I was addressing the ridiculousness of the pattern, nowhere did I say the models were being wrong, read again if you need to.

You do have a point though. Usually when I post it's in disagreement. I don't see much use in posting unless I have a different perspective to bring to the table. Repeating information is a complete waste of time to me.
I agree with everything you worte,and that is how you do it;).Good afternoon/evening everyone.
523. wxmod
Science In Mind
03/14/2013 | 2:07 PM
http://www.boston.com/news/science/blogs/science- in-mind/2013/03/14/geoengineering-solutions-global -warming-need-oversight-harvard-professor-argues/i 91l7xVuQRYpk4ctzZQnfP/blog.html

Geoengineering solutions to global warming need oversight, Harvard professor argues
By Carolyn Y. Johnson, Globe Staff


"Large-scale projects that could temper or reverse the effects of climate change by blocking some incoming sunlight or manipulating the atmosphere have long been unpopular on two opposing fronts. On one side are those worried about the unintended consequences and doomsday scenarios that could be set off by careless experiments. On the other are those who believe such research is important, but to support it now will detract from the urgent need to cut greenhouse gas emissions that are driving global temperature rise.

"The result, argues Harvard University applied physics professor David W. Keith, is an impasse: no government framework regulating when and how such research can be done...

Keith said. “What’s sort of strange is this is potentially as big, in a sense, in its potential impact on the world over a century as, say, engineering new life forms or nuclear weapons. But as of now, there’s much less attention paid to it.”
GFS Week 1 Precipitation Anomalies




Next week should remain very dry over much of the tropical Atlantic. The dryness will help warm the waters over the tropical Atlantic since less precipitation means less cloud coverage. The precipitation anomaly and negative NAO means we will continue to see anomalous warming of the waters in the tropical Atlantic.
CFSv2 says the Sahel will be wet this summer



Wet Sahel means stronger waves emerging from Africa and usually less dust and dry air emerging off Africa. I say usually because stronger waves coming off Africa also implies stronger winds associated with the waves emerging off Africa which will cause more dust to be blown into the Atlantic. Overall, however, the enhanced precipitation should mitigate this effect. CPC also agrees with Sahel being wetter than average. Ethiopian highlands (where waves originate) are also shaded for above average precipitation.

CPC Four Month Lead Africa Precipitation Forecast

The March update for the ECMWF comes out tomorrow, correct?
SOI continues to rise.

Sustained values above 8 may indicate impending development of La Nina, and vice-versa for El Nino.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's been great Ped....Thanks for being a friend... Take care


Going somewhere, been is past tense.....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The March update for the ECMWF comes out tomorrow, correct?


That is correct.
From today SST
60 Day Average Velocity Potential over the Atlantic




Velocity potentials anomalies (bottom of the two images) show us areas of anomalous upward (green and blue shading) and downward motion (orange and red shading) across the globe. As you can see here, the Atlantic has been experiencing anomalous downward motion over the last 60 days. This will tend to suppress convection over the region. It's should come as no surprise then that vertical instability across the tropical Atlantic has also been below average.




We'll have to watch and see if these anomalies persist into hurricane season. For now, they can be seen as positives since anomalous downward motion and a lack of vertical instability implies less convection, implying less cloud coverage than normal which will allow for greater SST warming than usual. Should the tropical Atlantic warm enough, vertical instability will be forced to turn around (maybe not on that graph since it covers the entire region from 20N south to the Equator and 60W all the way to 20E, but certainly over the MDR where vertical instability really matters).
Does anyone knows when JB will release his first 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season outlook? I like the pattern discussions that he always does.
Quoting TomTaylor:
60 Day Average Velocity Potential over the Atlantic




Velocity potentials anomalies (bottom of the two images) show us areas of anomalous upward (green and blue shading) and downward motion (orange and red shading) across the globe. As you can see here, the Atlantic has been experiencing anomalous downward motion over the last 60 days. This will tend to suppress convection over the region. It's should come as no surprise then that vertical instability across the tropical Atlantic has also been below average.




We'll have to watch and see if these anomalies persist into hurricane season. For now, they can be seen as positives since anomalous downward motion and a lack of vertical instability implies less convection, implying less cloud coverage than normal which will allow for greater SST warming than usual. Should the tropical Atlantic warm enough, vertical instability will be forced to turn around (maybe not on that graph since it covers the entire region from 20N south to the Equator and 60W all the way to 20E, but certainly over the MDR where vertical instability really matters).


This changes a lot during the next 2 weeks according to the GFS ensembles, which keep above-normal upper-level divergence over the Atlantic throughout the period. We will have to see if this increases cloud cover and lowers SST anomalies.

18z GFS Ensemble Mean Day 9 200mb Velocity Potential (green correlates with upward motion):

One last chart before go...60 Day Average Vertical Wind Shear over the Atlantic




As always, it's important to consider the anomalies when forecasting anomalies (in this case, above or below average activity in the Atlantic). For this reason, we really only care about the bottom image as it shows the vertical wind shear anomaly. In the bottom image, shading represents the anomaly in the magnitude of the wind shear vector; oranges and reds are a sign of a lower shear value and blues are a sign of a higher shear value. The large area of orange and red shading across the tropical Atlantic tells us that vertical wind shear in this area has been considerably below average over the last 60 days. Enhanced upward motion over the African continent (see Velocity potential anomaly plot in previous post) is likely responsible for this. Should anomalously low shear values persist through hurricane season, we should expect above average hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic.
Quoting Levi32:


This changes a lot during the next 2 weeks according to the GFS ensembles, which keep above-normal upper-level divergence over the Atlantic throughout the period. We will have to see if this increases cloud cover and lowers SST anomalies.

18z GFS Ensemble Mean Day 9 200mb Velocity Potential (green correlates with upward motion):

Yeah it does change a lot. That's why I chose a 60 day average of the velocity potential average, in order to try and capture more than just one cycle of the MJO.

Makes sense to see the GFS Ensemble showing that given the MJO forecasts.




Is it possible for you to time average the velocity potential anomaly as well? Would be curious how that's looking for perhaps the entire one or two week period.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah it does change a lot. That's why I chose a 60 day average of the velocity potential average, in order to try and capture more than just one cycle of the MJO.

Is it possible for you to time average the velocity potential anomaly as well? Would be curious how that's looking.


Was just thinking about that yesterday. That particular plot takes a long time to make, but I'm thinking of trying it out, as I agree it would be useful.
Quoting WoodyFL:


Who is Dr. Mathers?


He used to be The Beaver on TV.
Quoting Levi32:


Was just thinking about that yesterday. That particular plot takes a long time to make, but I'm thinking of trying it out, as I agree it would be useful.
Cool cool

Also, have you ever tried plotting precipitable water anomalies? Could be another useful parameter come hurricane season. If you're running low on space I'd say you could just restrict it just to the Atlantic domain.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Cool cool

Also, have you ever tried plotting precipitable water anomalies? Could be another useful parameter come hurricane season. If you're running low on space I'd say you could just restrict it just to the Atlantic domain.


Yeah, there are many more anomaly fields left for me to plot, including precipitable water. More will be out before the season starts.
Very cold weather for Us and Europe to continue!
Quoting TomTaylor:
CFSv2 says the Sahel will be wet this summer



Wet Sahel means stronger waves emerging from Africa and usually less dust and dry air emerging off Africa. I say usually because stronger waves coming off Africa also implies stronger winds associated with the waves emerging off Africa which will cause more dust to be blown into the Atlantic. Overall, however, the enhanced precipitation should mitigate this effect. CPC also agrees with Sahel being wetter than average. Ethiopian highlands (where waves originate) are also shaded for above average precipitation.

CPC Four Month Lead Africa Precipitation Forecast



Hi TT. Do you have the link to those graphics as I can't find them on the CFSv2 link that I have?

Link
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE TIM, CATEGORY TWO (14U)
11:11 AM EST March 15 2013
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Tim (988 hPa) located at 15.8S 153.3E or 810 km east of Cairns and 355 km east of Willis Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.5S 154.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.0S 154.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.2S 153.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 18.8S 152.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Position based on 2332Z visible image and 2245Z Ascat.

DT=3.0 based on 0.6 wrap curved band on visible image. MET/PAT give 2.5. FT based on DT as curved band was clear. CI held at 6.5 based on 6 hour restriction.

Deep layer steering flow is consistently northwest through depth until late today provided by monsoon flow and upper trough over eastern Australia. Over the weekend southerly movement is expected as a result of a mid level ridge building south of Fiji. Longer term expect more southwestward movement as the low level circulation center is influenced by low level trade winds from a high moving over the Great Australian Bight.

The system lies in a region of moderate northerly shear, which should steadily increase over the next 36 hours. This is likely to restrict further development, and lead to a general weakening trend over the next couple of days. The interaction of northerly shear and forecast southerly movement may lead to brief periods of intensification overnight. Dry air intruding to the northern and eastern side of the system will also likely assist a general weakening trend over the next couple of days.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Leslie might get downgraded to a Tropical Storm at this rate. Michael looks amazing, I would have thought that it would have been Leslie that would have the Category 3 on her at this point, and Michael the weakening TS a few days ago. Anyways, looks like we will have the possibility of another CV cyclone in a few days. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET are all showing a system by 5 days or so. Will have to watch for Nadine, as I am starting to doubt 90L will develop to anything more than a rainmaker for Florida.

Totals are up to 13-7-1, I'm still thinking we will see at least one more major hurricane, we've still got half a season to go. If not in September, then in October the possibility exists. I'm not so sure on a sudden season 'death' like in 2006, which had no storms after Isaac in late September. Insane activity for an El Nino year, who cares about whether they haven't hit the US or not besides Isaac, which was a bad storm, this hurricane season has been historic to me. Proof that the ENSO isn't the deciding factor for seasonal activity.


Got bored, went back to read the blog from when Michael unexpectedly strengthened to a Cat 3. CybrTeddy stated the models showed another CV storm several days later (above quote).

Little did we know that stupid system would become the fourth longest-lived Atlantic hurricane on record.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi TT. Do you have the link to those graphics as I can't find them on the CFSv2 link that I have?

Link

Thanks for posting this, I had been looking for it earlier.

Forecasts below-average wind shear throughout the entirety of this upcoming hurricane season:

Quoting help4u:
Very cold weather for Us and Europe to continue!


displaced arctic air masses does that
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks for posting this, I had been looking for it earlier.

Forecasts below-average wind shear throughout the entirety of this upcoming hurricane season:



And I am looking for the link to those African graphics that Tony Taylor posted.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Got bored, went back to read the blog from when Michael unexpectedly strengthened to a Cat 3. CybrTeddy stated the models showed another CV storm several days later (above quote).

Little did we know that stupid system would become the fourth longest-lived Atlantic hurricane on record.



That stupid thing wouldnt die!! I really got tired of it...wanted to get some windex and clean it off the NHC page.

Different note...I am expecting a high of 76 Saturday...NWS said if sunshine dominates, temperatures could easily reach 75-80F...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And I am looking for the link to those African graphics that Tony Taylor posted.

That's a product of WeatherBell I believe.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's a product of WeatherBell I believe.


Oh, subscription thing!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And I am looking for the link to those African graphics that Tony Taylor posted.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Oh, subscription thing!


Don't worry. Not too long and I will be offering similar products for free :)
Quoting SPLbeater:


That stupid thing wouldnt die!! I really got tired of it...wanted to get some windex and clean it off the NHC page.

Different note...I am expecting a high of 76 Saturday...NWS said if sunshine dominates, temperatures could easily reach 75-80F...

Lucky :P I'll be lucky to break 40F either day this weekend. I'm ready for spring, but winter won't let go.

Looks like a big snowy, icy, rainy mess of a storm on the way for the NE early next week. My biggest concern about that is the potential for a prolonged period of icing somewhere as warm air moves in aloft but cold air gets trapped at the surface.
Quoting Levi32:


Don't worry. Not too long and I will be offering similar products for free :)


That is great!!
82.4 here 78.7 inside. I cooled it down real good last night with just pulling in outside air and it took all day to get up about 13 degrees. No AC needed.

MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:49 PM PDT on March 14, 2013
Clear
82 °F
Clear
Humidity: 32%
Dew Point: 49 °F
Wind: 2 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.95 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 81 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
LOW, FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA
13:00 PM NZDT March 15 2013
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low, Former Sandra (991 hPa) located at 32.0S 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lucky :P I'll be lucky to break 40F either day this weekend. I'm ready for spring, but winter won't let go.

Looks like a big snowy, icy, rainy mess of a storm on the way for the NE early next week. My biggest concern about that is the potential for a prolonged period of icing somewhere as warm air moves in aloft but cold air gets trapped at the surface.

I'm supposed to get 1-3" from a clipper system tomorrow night and mixed precip early next week. Yeah, I'm done with winter.
Quoting Levi32:



Don't worry. Not too long and I will be offering similar products for free :)

Woohoo!
Quoting PedleyCA:
82.4 here 78.7 inside. I cooled it down real good last night with just pulling in outside air and it took all day to get up about 13 degrees. No AC needed.

MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:49 PM PDT on March 14, 2013
Clear
82 °F
Clear
Humidity: 32%
Dew Point: 49 °F
Wind: 2 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.95 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 81 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EDT Thursday 14 March 2013
Condition: Clear
Pressure: 30.1 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 25.9°F
Dewpoint: 11.5°F
Humidity: 54 %
Wind: WNW 11 mph
Wind Chill: 15
We just had another sonic boom here..these things are scary if you have been never been through one..shook the whole house..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi TT. Do you have the link to those graphics as I can't find them on the CFSv2 link that I have?

Link
It's on weatherbell which you need a subscription for...or other, more secretive tactics which I use lol
Kevin Martin of The Weather Space is predicting a "major" tornado season.

I may despise the guy [and for good reason if you know anything about him] but I have to admit he nailed the forecast for tornado activity both last year (normal to below normal) and 2011 (well above normal).
Quoting ncstorm:
We just had another sonic boom here..these things are scary if you have been never been through one..shook the whole house..

You really shouldn't be getting those. Something is not right if you are.
Quoting PedleyCA:
82.4 here 78.7 inside. I cooled it down real good last night with just pulling in outside air and it took all day to get up about 13 degrees. No AC needed.

MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:49 PM PDT on March 14, 2013
Clear
82 °F
Clear
Humidity: 32%
Dew Point: 49 °F
Wind: 2 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.95 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 81 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft


Dang Ped. You've had the heat! Our first 80's of the year are in the forecast. Up goes the temp-up goes the humidity. Definite ac weather here.

Quoting bappit:

You really shouldn't be getting those. Something is not right if you are.


I hope we not about to fall into a huge sinkhole..LOL..this is not good for my nerves..
Turns out it was filming for the NBC show "Revolution"..(whew!)they blowing up stuff over by the highway..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Kevin Martin of The Weather Space is predicting a "major" tornado season.

I may despise the guy [and for good reason if you know anything about him] but I have to admit he nailed the forecast for tornado activity both last year (normal to below normal) and 2011 (well above normal).

A broke clock is right twice in one day, so I think might need a bit more than that. The great thing about vague terms like "major tornado season" is that there is not a 100% clear-cut way to measure whether or not the prediction comes true. One EF5 in a below-average season could be major enough for people to claim he was right. Or one big outbreak. Or an above average season that is mostly EF0s and EF1s.

Does he provide any thoughts as to why he thinks this year will be "major?" Is there a testable, physical set of things that he looks at that can be independently used to reach a similar forecast?
Quoting ScottLincoln:

A broke clock is right twice in one day, so I think might need a bit more than that. The great thing about vague terms like "major tornado season" is that there is not a 100% clear-cut way to measure whether or not the prediction comes true. One EF5 in a below-average season could be major enough for people to claim he was right. Or one big outbreak. Or an above average season that is mostly EF0s and EF1s.

Does he provide any thoughts as to why he thinks this year will be "major?" Is there a testable, physical set of things that he looks at that can be independently used to reach a similar forecast?

Here's a link to the article.

Link

"If I am correct, the northwest flow over California will bring the storms further south, which targets the Central and Southern Plains, then up into the Great Lakes with the surface lows. Such scenarios playing out would be 1999, 2010, 1974, and 2011 type upper level dynamics."
So Florida is much above normal on the winter so far, and its March, and it's Bike Week, and I'm riding down to Daytona on my newish Harley at 7am tomorrow to meet some friends from AZ, and its going to be frigging 39 degrees when I start out!!!!! What's the windchill at 75 mph at 39 degrees??? Just discovered I didn't keep any longjohns when I moved here from Wisconsin several years ago. BRRRRRRR!!!!!!!
interesting dark region

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Dang Ped. You've had the heat! Our first 80's of the year are in the forecast. Up goes the temp-up goes the humidity. Definite ac weather here.



I like what you have there. With the 80 as the extreme. Easy on the humidity here so far. the one plus about this area is that it is dry most of
the time. Weve been near 90 here. 88.6 here yesterday, to day was 56.0/88.6
same as yesterday....
Finally back home....awwwhh!
That lecture about Shakespeare's King Lear was boring!

Is still windy and colder here...feels like 20F
Quoting jaxbeachbadger:
So Florida is much above normal on the winter so far, and its March, and it's Bike Week, and I'm riding down to Daytona on my newish Harley at 7am tomorrow to meet some friends from AZ, and its going to be frigging 39 degrees when I start out!!!!! What's the windchill at 75 mph at 39 degrees??? Just discovered I didn't keep any longjohns when I moved here from Wisconsin several years ago. BRRRRRRR!!!!!!!


go get some longjohns....

wind chill comupter/graph
OK, Bedtime for Me. Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Sleep Well - hang Loose.....
Quoting PedleyCA:
OK, Bedtime for Me. Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Sleep Well - hang Loose.....


alright, sleep tight and don't let the bedbugs bite.
It just got a whole lot easier for Americans to find out which power plants and industrial sites are releasing the most planet-baking emissions. The Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday released its greenhouse gas database, and included some cool tools for tracking polluters.

The database includes the largest sources - the 6,700 power plants and heavy industries that are responsible for 80 percent of all emissions in the United States. It covers their emissions for 2010, the first year they were required to report to the EPA.

...
The inventory includes carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), as well as other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide. These are the gases that scientists say are trapping heat in the atmosphere and causing the planet to warm up. This is the first time the agency has compiled site-specific emission figures for all all major sources, including power plants, refineries, chemical plants, and landfills.


http://www.motherjones.com/slideshows/2012/01/wor st-emissions-pollutors/scherer-plant-juliette-geor gia
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
LOW, FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA
13:00 PM NZDT March 15 2013
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low, Former Sandra (991 hPa) located at 32.0S 161.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.
Finally dead rest in peace.
Quoting allancalderini:
Finally dead rest in peace.


Nadine kept me holding those words for a very long time...
same as Ped..I feel getting knocked out...Gnite everyone
warm bed awaits on this cold night

IDES OF MARCH!
Sandra remains.
Quoting PedleyCA:


go get some longjohns....

wind chill comupter/graph


Wow, only goes to 60mph! So 23F at 60. Gonna be chilly, maybe I'll stay off the slab and take the side roads. Slower but less chilled.
582. wxmod
I thought you would like to know this, considering that carbon monoxide is pegging the instruments out in the Pacific right now.


"Carbon monoxide is used in modified atmosphere packaging systems in the US, mainly with fresh meat products such as beef, pork, and fish to keep them looking fresh. The carbon monoxide combines with myoglobin to form carboxymyoglobin, a bright-cherry-red pigment. Carboxymyoglobin is more stable than the oxygenated form of myoglobin, oxymyoglobin, which can become oxidized to the brown pigment metmyoglobin. This stable red color can persist much longer than in normally packaged meat." Wikipedia.
Tim struggling..
Ridging over eastern Canada this month has lead to much above-average temperatures across the region. This high pressure-area has been situated across the same general location for January, February, and now March. It will be interesting to see if this becomes a permanent feature this year. Ridging over eastern Canada is typically a trademark of a hurricane season with many landfalls.

Quoting PedleyCA:


I like what you have there. With the 80 as the extreme. Easy on the humidity here so far. the one plus about this area is that it is dry most of
the time. Weve been near 90 here. 88.6 here yesterday, to day was 56.0/88.6
same as yesterday....


Ah, you are lucky. Our dew points are our undoing in the summer. Still aren't through with the fronts here obviously. They don't cool it down too much this time of year. But the winds keep us off the water. Usually by time they stop coming through it's too hot to fish. It's a delicate dance. Lol.
SE Texas is heading in the wrong direction. Climate summary for February:

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUED FROM JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVE PATTERN MOVED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH. RAINFALL DID ACCOMPANY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS...YET THE MONTH ENDED WITH BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS AT ALL BUT ONE OF THE FIRST AND SECOND-ORDER CLIMATE SITES.

FOR THE SECOND MONTH IN A ROW OF 2013 ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFFECTED THE AREA. ALL OF THE FIRST AND SECOND ORDER STATIONS RECORDED DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1 AND 4.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TAKING THESE IN ACCOUNT WITH THE BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 26TH SHOWED THAT MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE COMMON ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. DRIEST CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GRIMES COUNTY.

FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A ROW...FEBRUARY EXPERIENCED ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. IN CONTRAST TO LAST MONTH WHERE THE INCREASE WAS DUE IN PART TO WARMER THAN NORMAL AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...THIS MONTH EXPERIENCED AN INCREASE IN BOTH THE DAILY MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE.
I just finished the initial draft of my Tropical Cyclone Reports (TCRs) for Patty and Rafael. Gonna try finishing up Tony's tonight, and complete Aletta and Bud's tomorrow. Sandy's still gonna be dead last.

Patty

Rafael
At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Tim (994 hPa) located at 16.4S 154.0E or 880 km east of Cairns and 425 km east of Willis Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.0S 154.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.4S 154.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 18.3S 153.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 18.5S 152.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Position based on 0532Z visible image and 0511Z SSMI 37GHz microwave.

DT=3.0 based on shear with low level circulation center within 0.5 degree from deep convection. MET/PAT agree. FT based on DT.

Deep layer steering flow is consistently northwest through depth until late today provided by monsoon flow and upper trough over eastern Australia. From tonight southerly movement is expected as a result of a mid level ridge building south of Fiji. Longer term expect westward movement as the system becomes sheared and the low level circulation center is influenced by low level trade winds from a high moving over the Great Australian Bight.

The system lies in a region of moderate northerly shear, which should steadily increase over the next 36 hours. This is likely to restrict further development, and lead to a general weakening trend over the next couple of days. The interaction of northerly shear and forecast southerly movement may lead to brief periods of intensification overnight. Dry air intruding to the northern and eastern side of the system will also likely assist a general weakening trend over the next couple of days.
Good Morning Folks!..and Bike Week in Daytona!..
cool here by me this morning,warm up begins now....
Small steps maybe but still nice to see. :)

PFLUGERVILLE

City offering discounted rain barrels


The City of Pflugerville is accepting orders for 50-gallon rain barrels offered at a reduced price until May 14at City Hall, 100 E. Main St.

The 50-gallon barrels normally cost $150 but are available for $63 in a partnership between the city and Ivy Rain Barrels.

“The barrels are cost-effective as they provide an opportunity to reuse rainwater for lawns and gardens instead of pulling the water from the city’s water supply. Depending on the amount of rain we receive, customers may even see a difference in their water bills,” water conservation manager Darrell Winslett said in a statement.

The barrels will be available for pick up from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. May 24 in conjunction with an Open House at City Public Works Wastewater Plant, 15500 Sun Light Near Way #B.

Those picking up rain barrels are encouraged to tour the facility. For more information, visit www.pflugervilletx.gov/rainbarrels.


AUSTIN

Company donates solar panels to shelter


The Austin Children’s Shelter has received a donation of over 40 solar panels to provide renewable energy for its gymnasium.

Austin-based Circular Energy provided the panels, which will offset more than 215 ton of carbon during their lifetime and allow the shelter to focus funds on caring for children instead of high electricity costs, a news release said.

The panels will be installed on March 22, and the shelter is expected to save over $3,300 in energy savings during the first year after installation, the release said.

Circular Energy also plans to hold classes on sustainable energy for the children residing at the shelter.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Small steps maybe but still nice to see. :)

PFLUGERVILLE

City offering discounted rain barrels


The City of Pflugerville is accepting orders for 50-gallon rain barrels offered at a reduced price until May 14at City Hall, 100 E. Main St.

The 50-gallon barrels normally cost $150 but are available for $63 in a partnership between the city and Ivy Rain Barrels.

The barrels are cost-effective as they provide an opportunity to reuse rainwater for lawns and gardens instead of pulling the water from the city's water supply. Depending on the amount of rain we receive, customers may even see a difference in their water bills, water conservation manager Darrell Winslett said in a statement.

The barrels will be available for pick up from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. May 24 in conjunction with an Open House at City Public Works Wastewater Plant, 15500 Sun Light Near Way #B.

Those picking up rain barrels are encouraged to tour the facility. For more information, visit www.pflugervilletx.gov/rainbarrels.


Is your water govt/state owned or privately owned. Here there is talk that if water is privatised people that have rain water tanks will be taxed due to the rain that would normally flow into catchment areas then sold back to customers isn't flowing into the catchment but into water tanks.
7-DAY For the Tampa Bay area............
Quoting DoctorDave1:


This comment is really funny and an opportunity to point out the 1984-like nature of our world. My semi-rant (can a question be a rant?) was that the information I referred to of IS NOT SPOKEN OF and not readilly available. That is why I was asking Dr. Masters to discuss it, since he has access to that information. And, your "good luck" comment is classic 1984. So, there is basically a yes or no answer to what I asked. It would be nice to get that answer, but it would be nicer to get a scientific answer, based on data and statisics. Since it appears that no one in this forum has any real information, it is unlikely that I will get anything from them (nor did I really expect to, since my question was directed to Dr. Masters). They certainly act like they know something, though, don't they?


I've always wondered the
Alinsky supporters in are suppose to welcome views other than their beliefs, but most are attack dogs, and gang up on opposing views of Global warming, now called climate change.
I also wonder what political party they are affiliated with?
Politics raises it's ugly head in the name of science.
I sure would like to know if HARRP, solar storms, magnetic pole reversals, Valcano's, Amazon forest demise, has an effect on climate change, rather than one stop shop (CARBON)
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 49 degrees with a high of close to 80 later today. Going to be a nice day here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: fresh warm blueberry and apple muffins, yogurt and fresh orange juice. Enjoy!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ridging over eastern Canada this month has lead to much above-average temperatures across the region. This high pressure-area has been situated across the same general location for January, February, and now March. It will be interesting to see if this becomes a permanent feature this year. Ridging over eastern Canada is typically a trademark of a hurricane season with many landfalls.


nooooooo
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ridging over eastern Canada this month has lead to much above-average temperatures across the region. This high pressure-area has been situated across the same general location for January, February, and now March. It will be interesting to see if this becomes a permanent feature this year. Ridging over eastern Canada is typically a trademark of a hurricane season with many landfalls.


but i wanna now, if these current patterns remain in place, what would be good analogs
Quoting KoritheMan:
I just finished the initial draft of my Tropical Cyclone Reports (TCRs) for Patty and Rafael. Gonna try finishing up Tony's tonight, and complete Aletta and Bud's tomorrow. Sandy's still gonna be dead last.

Patty

Rafael

well thats good, but when will you release sandy's? after rosa?
Good morning. Major solar event last night. Sunspot 1692 near the center of the visible solar disk produced a very long duration M1 class solar flare, and launched a large
"full-halo" coronal mass ejection into space, likely towards earth due to its location on the Sun.

X-ray chart:



(The big gap in the chart is a satellite eclipse)

CME:



More information here if you're interested.

Could be some auroras pretty far south late this weekend if that CME is indeed heading for earth!
Severe weather threat Monday:

Morning wunderground. Today marks my first full year here. I did a blog on that, me switching to a severe weather blog, and about the Dexter tornado.
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

An increase in moisture will occur starting on Saturday night as a weak front moves thru and becomes stationary bringing scattered showers thru Tuesday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI MAR 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...FLOW WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE LINE MOVES
INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND TOMORROW AND HOLD A WESTERLY JET
NEAR 25 DEGREES NORTH NORTH OF THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SAME AREA
LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...INCREASING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR ALSO RETURNS ON MONDAY BUT BETTER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME ORIENTED MORE EAST-WEST. MOISTURE FROM THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST DISPLACES IT ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM
THE EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW CLOUDS TRIED TO BUILD BACK IN NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE
INVERSION AT 850 MB...BUT SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE SHEAR LINE HAS
ERODED THE LAYER FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND IT IS NOW NEARLY
CLEAR OVER MUCH OF PUERTO RICO. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR THE LAND AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO APPEAR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
MARINE ZONES TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO
ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST SHOWERS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. THE GFS AND THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOW MOISTURE AT
850 MB AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER RESPECTIVELY WEAKENING AS THE
SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE AMOUNTS WILL
AGAIN BE LIGHT AND SOME AREAS WILL AGAIN BE MISSED. MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS THE FRONT STALLS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS
SHOWS THE ACTUAL SHEAR LINE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA ONCE IT HAS
PASSED. EASTWARD BOUND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
SHOVES DRIER AIR ON NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT
IT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY THAT
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES FURTHER
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE ACCOMPANYING JET STREAM ALSO
REMAINS FARTHER NORTH. NEXT WEEKEND WILL HAVE A DRY START IF
TIMING HOLDS IN THE GFS MODEL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THRU TONITE AND NO
SHRA. SCT-BKN FL050-060 CLRG E HAS PASSED TJPS AND REACHING TJSJ
ATTM...TO REACH TIST ABT 15Z. LLVL WIND E-ENE TO 10 KT UP TO FL050
THEN SW TO FL150. NE WIND TO DEEPEN TO FL100 BY EVE BUT STILL 10
KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE DIMINISHING AT BUOY 41043. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN UNTIL 2 PM AST WHEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 7 FEET. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NOON AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SINCE 7 FOOT SEAS ARE COMING IN AT 13-14
SECONDS...CAUSING BREAKERS OF 10 TO 13 FEET FOR NOW. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN
ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE RE-
POSTED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 73 / 0 0 0 30
STT 82 72 84 74 / 0 0 0 30
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND FREEZING.

* TIMING...THROUGH MID-MORNING.

* IMPACTS...CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 32 DEGREES OR COLDER EARLY THIS MORNING. A
BRIEF FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. SCATTERED FROST
COULD ALSO DAMAGE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Everyone have a great Friday! Aussie, have a great Saturday!
Good Morning All..
First I would like to thank all for the birthday wishes yesterday..
I had a grand time..
Your wishes made it all the better.. :)

Looks like Florida had frost advisories last night, Northern plains winter weather still rules, and fire advisories in numerous areas..
Dry, High pressure abounds..
Be safe and careful out there if you do burn..
Lost a family here last night because of a careless neighbor, very sad..



Jet Stream Analysis..





Good morning everyone..

Good morning to you Pcola... and happy anniversary to you chaser for your first year.
Evening Aussie
Tim??

not sure if i agree with the map posted above by the doctor calif has had its share of storms and floridas temperture has been below normal since the beginning of the yr
Big storm next week.
Quoting islander101010:
not sure if i agree with the map posted above by the doctor calif has had its share of storms and floridas temperture has been below normal since the beginning of the yr


You are wrong all the way around. California as Doc mentioned has had it's driest start to the year on record as FL has had it's top 10 warmest start of the year. Although it has been pretty cool off and on the last few weeks but that will change as highs approach 90 come next week.
a low emerges offshore NC... NE trouble?
06Z gfs

Quoting trunkmonkey:
[snipped unrelated/irrelevant content]

I sure would like to know if HARRP, solar storms, magnetic pole reversals, Valcano's, Amazon forest demise, has an effect on climate change, rather than one stop shop (CARBON)

Solar activity, volcanic activity, & major land use changes all do impact global climate. This has been known to climate science for some time, and these different factors are discussed in the IPCC reports.

I'm sure that you would find the answer to these questions by using:
www.google.com
scholar.google.com
www.skepticalscience.com

In summary:
Solar activity and volcanic activity are supporting a slowly cooling climate at present. The darker color of soil vs. tree canopy absorbs more sunlight, thus causing an increase in heat energy at the surface in the Amazon region. The burning of plant material removed from these forests releases more heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The land use change impacts to climate are an anthropogenic (human-caused) contribution to climate change.
The big snowstorm for early next week is appearing on the forecast for my area.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Here's a link to the article.

Link

"If I am correct, the northwest flow over California will bring the storms further south, which targets the Central and Southern Plains, then up into the Great Lakes with the surface lows. Such scenarios playing out would be 1999, 2010, 1974, and 2011 type upper level dynamics."

I read his post and I was surprised to find that that is as deep as it gets. What you just quoted, that is the core line of reasoning. Nothing about analogues, nothing about what he means about NW flow over California, nothing about what is causing it, nothing about what might cause it to continue. He doesn't elaborate on whether it is NW flow today that he thinks is a predictor of severe weather late in the season, or if he is predicting NW flow later in the season which will cause severe weather simultaneously. Still makes it very difficult to test these kinds of predictions if they are this vague.
Good thing I'll see only rain out of this..I hope Im right.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


RIP TIM! It only has one puff of smoke left.
Quoting islander101010:
not sure if i agree with the map posted above by the doctor calif has had its share of storms and floridas temperture has been below normal since the beginning of the yr


It's ok to disagree islander,
I would suggest however, that you post data to support your thinking..
Like Dr. Masters does.. :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


RIP TIM! It only has one puff of smoke left.



It still has some juice to last another day or two.

advisories ahead of the clipper
Morning Max. Whats the matter, you would not want one final "good Snowstorm " for us in SW CT! :)
Im going to borrow chaser97's picture...
It reflects nearly the same thing if I were do to one of my own...
just another clipper bringing some light snow across the Great Lakes



Image credit: Chaser97
Quoting originalLT:
Morning Max. Whats the matter, you would not want one final "good Snowstorm " for us in SW CT! :)


looks like you want it...
Im just done with snow, Im thinking of getting the snow shield back to Norwalk, or at least my house here.
We need rain to finish cleaning up the dirty and salty roads from snow here...
Beware the Ides of March

Good Morning All-Evening Aussie
You are right, I wouldn't mind it, but I doubt it will happen, Tues. storm looks to be mostly rain, at least right now.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
advisories ahead of the clipper

I'm supposed to get 2-3" from this storm, and then some more snow from one next week.
639. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!


Quoting PedleyCA:
Beware the Ides of March

Good Morning All-Evening Aussie


Your full of the joys of spring today :)

LOL



Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm supposed to get 2-3" from this storm, and then some more snow from one next week.


your NWS does not plan to issue any alerts for that?

Quoting originalLT:
You are right, I wouldn't mind it, but I doubt it will happen, Tues. storm looks to be mostly rain, at least right now.

yes, that's how it looks like for now...
I'll be doing maps for next week storm by the way.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


your NWS does not plan to issue any alerts for that?


yes, that's how it looks like for now...
I'll be doing maps for next week storm by the way.

It may issues winter weather advisories for the southern half of the CWA. It just depends on how much snow falls at a fast enough time.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


your NWS does not plan to issue any alerts for that?


yes, that's how it looks like for now...
I'll be doing maps for next week storm by the way.


Very good blog entry Max,
I learned something today !!.. :)
Quoting pcola57:


Very good blog Max,
I learned something today !!.. :)


Im glad you did pcola, which was my purpose of the pressure blog...
you made my day :)
Todays drought Monitor Analysis



Last weeks for comparison..



Water flowing over the Kitty seawall in Guyana yesterday afternoon. Much of Guyana is below sea level as much as 8 feet in some parts. I'm thinking the government of Guyana should add on an extra layer of concrete about 1-2 feet high to see if that would hold the water out for future storm systems. They do have drains in all villages to drain the excess water into the canals, but sometimes that overflows and water gets into the houses. The high tides were strengthened by an Atlantic gale that affected Trinidad and other parts of the Caribbean. (Arian Browne photo) — at Seawall.



I know the hurricane season is far from now still...

I have updated the list of numbers people here are predicting,
thanks to the 30 of you who participated

check my blog for the list
This is out of Brooksville this morning can't believe it's still freezing in FL. in the middle of March.

Max on your blog post#11 the image won't enlarge so I can read it.. :(

Edit: all is well.. :)
00z CMC




Quoting pcola57:
Max on your blog post#11 the image won't enlarge so I can read it.. :(


oh sorry, the link was broken...all fixed
would like to try again?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


oh sorry, the link was broken...all fixed
would like to try again?


Yes and thanks for the fix!!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
This is out of Brooksville this morning can't believe it's still freezing in FL. in the middle of March.

yeah GT the cold is sure hanging on this year..cant remember a cold march like this around here..strange huh
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
new blog everyone...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


displaced arctic air masses does that
And it is still winter.. Remember the good ole days when winter lasted into middle or late spring ?...:)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
This is out of Brooksville this morning can't believe it's still freezing in FL. in the middle of March.



It has been cold for the first two weeks of the month. When the reports come out, I wouldn't be surprised to see March be one of the top 20 warmest months on record.