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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Greedy Lying Bastards: a movie review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:14 PM GMT on March 09, 2013

Greedy Lying Bastards is a documentary film on the politics of global warming, playing in theaters this weekend. As it's rather provocative title suggests, this movie is all about exposing the bad guys--the fossil fuel industry, the private climate change denial "think tank" groups that they fund, and the politicians and media outlets sympathetic to the fossil fuel industry. The movie features several hero climate scientists, who focus on the political efforts to suppress climate science, rather than the science. Other "heroes" featured include politicians such as U.S. Representative Henry Waxman, several environmental journalists, and environmental activists such as Kert Davies of Greenpeace. The movie is produced by actress and climate activist Daryl Hannah and directed by filmmaker and political activist Craig Rosebraugh.


Video 1. Trailer for Greedy Lying Bastards.

The movie is at its strongest when it traces the history of organized climate denial efforts in the United States. We learn through engaging and detailed 3-D graphics how tens of millions of dollars have flowed from the fossil fuel industry to organizations active in climate denial efforts. The movie spends a lot of time exposing the anti-climate science efforts of billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, who jointly own majority stakes in Koch Industries, a large oil, gas and chemicals conglomerate based in Kansas. Through 2012, the Koch brothers spent $67 million to fund organizations engaged in climate science denial efforts, compared to $27 million spent by ExxonMobil on such efforts. Unfortunately, the movie was not able to mention the new power player in this game of thrones, Donor's Trust (and the affiliated Donors Capital Fund), whose influence has come to light only in past few months. Corporations who want to hide their contributions to climate science denial organizations can now launder them through Donor's Trust, who will keep the source of the funds secret. It's a charity, so this is all tax-deductible. According to mediamatters.org, "Between 2008 and 2011, Donors Trust doled out over $300 million in grants to what it describes as 'conservative and libertarian causes,' serving as 'the dark money ATM of the conservative movement.' Donors Trust enables donors to give anonymously, noting on its website that if you 'wish to keep your charitable giving private, especially gifts funding sensitive or controversial issues,' you can use it to direct your money." The following chart created by The Guardian, based on data from Greenpeace, shows that as ExxonMobil and the Koch Foundations have reduced traceable funding for these groups, donations from Donors Trust have surged:



The movie also has a very interesting look at Citizens United, a conservative nonprofit group founded by the Koch brothers. Citizens United won a landmark 2010 Supreme Court case, which now allows unlimited corporate donations to political candidates. The movie makes the case that Justice Clarence Thomas should have recused himself from the case because he appeared at a retreat sponsored by Citizens United prior to the court case.

Interspersed through the movie is dramatic footage of extreme weather events such as fires, tornadoes, and hurricanes, and the struggles of people on the front lines of climate change-related disasters. We see victims of the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire in Colorado, villagers in the island nation of Tuvalu struggling with sea level rise, and Kansas farmers dealing with drought. The movie spent too much time dwelling on the victims of the Colorado fires, making for excessive melodrama. However, the scenes of the Tuvalu people living in homes that are regularly inundated by the sea were very compelling, as was the lament by one islander that a rich and colorful culture was in danger of being permanently lost.

The movie closes with a call for people to take action, accompanied by the thumping sounds of the song, "Bastards and Swine Forever." Specifically, the movies calls for people to get politically active to oppose the Citizens United Supreme Court ruling, and to boycott ExxonMobil and products manufactured by Koch Industries, including Chevron, Union 76, and Conoco gasoline, plus Georgia-Pacific products such as "Brawny" paper towels, Quilted Northern toilet paper, and Dixie cups.

Overall rating: two and-a-half stars, out of four
It's a pretty interesting movie, as documentaries go, but documentaries tend to be boring, and Greedy Lying Bastards does suffer from this problem. There are some humorous moments, but not enough of them to make this as engaging as Michael Moore documentaries. Still, the fascinating look at how the funding of the climate change denial movement works is worth the price of admission, and I give Greedy Lying Bastards two and-a-half stars, out of four.

Jeff Masters

Book and Movie Reviews

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting aspectre:
Is your goal to starve the US of oil, block the access of one drop of petroleum products into US vehicles?

The current pipeline already provides as much as the US "needs", and has the capacity to provide even more. The XL is designed to export Canadian oil out of the US.


Simply not true. The existing pipeline provides only 5% of US oil imports. The Keystone XL is to provide oil to new refinery expansions on the gulf coast, designed to produce fuel for domestic consumption. BTW, the refinery expansions *are* already built, and they will *not* just leave their investments idle. If they don't get canadian crude, they'll just ship crude from elsewhere in. I hope you like supertankers.

Quoting aspectre:
On the other hand, the US government is being asked to ignore the best interests of its citizens. There are still burning coal seams spewing pollutants into the air. The ExxonValdez spill has never been cleaned up. WRGrace is being allowed to retain the wealth gained from deliberately choosing to murder its asbestos miners and factory workers. BP will never be forced to fully repair the damage that the DeepwaterHorizon caused. Etc ad nauseum


Is your argument that because current energy production has negative consequences (no argument here) and because we need to shift to cleaner energy production (no argument here), that we need to *suddenly stop producing electricity and oil*? If so, Big Argument Here.

A good chunk of a hundred million cars are produced every year. Only an insignificant fraction of these are electric. Even if nearly 100% of new vehicle production shifted over to electric tomorrow - something that probably won't happen for several decades at best, half a century realistically, and couldn't even possibly happen for 1-2 decades even if we went all out on retooling infrastructure - even IF that all wasn't the case and new production went 100% electric tomorrow, oil-powered vehicles would still be a major part of the world's fleet for the next several decades just from existing vehicles. Oil can, will, and must be continued to be produced in the meantime to fuel these vehicles, or all of human society, which depends on them transporting people and goods, collapses.

If you try to suddenly shut down traditional energy production, *we'll never reach a clean future*. Without energy, we revert to pre-industrial society. Which has maybe 1/10th the population carrying capacity, FYI. So I hope you like mass starvation.

The goal shouldn't be "the world is bad, burn it to the ground". The goal should be, "how can we *pragmatically* (that is, taking into account reality) change the world as quickly as possible?"

Oil for transportation is, FYI, not low-lying fruit. It's actually one of the hardest things to shift, aka, the least bang for your buck in terms of CO2 reduction in the short term. For that, electricity production, industrial heat, and waste-reduction are the easiest targets, especially in specific locations and fields. Reduction, even near-elimination of oil absolutely can be done in the long term, though, through tougher fuel efficiency standards and R&D/investment funding for clean transportation. But it'll take a long, long time.

Oh, and FYI: I drive a home-converted plug-in hybrid Gen1 Honda Insight and live in a building heated and powered by geothermal.
Good morning to all,evening Aussie. Is now Daylight Saving Time.

A mix of clouds and sun with some isolated showers will prevail on Sunday. Seas continue to be rough so dont venture to the beaches.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST SUN MAR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SHIFTED
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS INDUCING A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW WHICH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW TO MID
LEVEL STRATIFORM CLOUDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...DEEP LAYERED POLAR
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUED TO SHIFT FURTHER
EASTWARDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A
ZONAL/WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED WELL...SUGGESTS THAT THE
BASE OF THE 850-70O MILLIBAR TROUGH WAS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AND SHOULD ALSO SHIFT FURTHER EAST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AREA
AT LEAST FOR TODAY. HOWEVER EXPECT A GRADUAL CLANG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
FURTHER EAST OF THE ISLANDS. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
LOCAL EFFECTS AND POCKETS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY WHERE VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
BUT LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS IN STORE FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS THE DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND INCREASE THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME EXPECTED ONLY PERIODS OF PASSING
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EACH DAY
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA UNTIL 10/16Z. FEW
PASSING SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO PRODUCING ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJSJ. TJSJ 10/00Z RAOB INDICATED A
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO
5K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONG ABOVE 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE WITH NORTHERLY
SWELL EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES TODAY
AND PEAKING EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY PULSE PEAKING
ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN A LITTLE HIGH AND WITH PEAK
SWELL OF 4.3 METERS FORECAST FOR BUOY 41043 AND EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE. THE SAME MODEL IS ALSO FORECASTING A SECOND PEAK ON
TUESDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FIRST WITH LARGE SWELL CONTINUING TO
ARRIVE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FACING
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 70 82 71 / 20 10 10 20
STT 83 71 82 71 / 20 10 10 20
I was surfing the news and I saw an interesting article... it was about how the Japanese Earthquake in 2011 was heard from a satellite in space.

BBC Article
Quoting Astrometeor:
Good night blog, this place moved rapidly today from one weird topic to the next.
1. CC movies to
2. Severe weather to
3. CC data maps to
4. warm temperatures to
5. farts and how they warm the earth
6. to finally the Keystone Pipeline

For some reason I can not see my flashy position holder thingy that you see when you type, but as I type my words spring up as if from nowhere and I have to trust my typing skills to know where the next letter will fall...that kinda sucks, no wait, it DOES suck. I wish it would come back.


Ahh the old Mystery Of The Disappearing Cursor...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


WHAT???


I think I started that subject along with washi.
Weatherzone is predicting TC Sandra to come back towards Australia but "only" as a ex-Tropical Low.





Also has a Tropical Low that develops in the GOC moving east.
Sandra would be a very powerful cyclone right now if there was no dry air around.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sandra would be a very powerful cyclone right now if there was no dry air around.


Currently a Cat 4 on the Fiji Mets scale. That's pretty powerful.
Currently 90kts/10min winds. Which would equal High end Cat 3 Hurricane
Quoting AussieStorm:

Currently a Cat 4 on the Fiji Mets scale. That's pretty powerful.
Currently 90kts/10min winds. Which would equal High end Cat 3 Hurricane

Yeah, Sandra is definitely powerful [with 120 mph wjnds], I'm just saying it would probably be a high-end Category 4 on the NHC scale without dry air.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, Sandra is definitely powerful [with 120 mph wjnds], I'm just saying it would probably be a high-end Category 4 on the NHC scale without dry air.

Would probably a Cat 5 on both scales if it wasn't for the dry air.
515. VR46L
line moving through NE Texas and into LA

Has Sandra stalled?

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY FOUR (17F)
0:00 AM FST March 11 2013
=========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Sandra (935 hPa) located at 16.5S 160.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 5 knots. Position good based on hourly multi-spectral enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
150 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization has improved significantly in past 24 hours. Irregular eye. Outflow good to the south but restricted elsewhere. System lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Cyclone currently tracking southeastward due to the steering influence of the upper ridge to northeast of system.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye in B surround and embedded in CMG, yielding DT=6.0, PT=6.0 and MET=5.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS.

Consensus of the global models move the system southeastward and then south southeastwards.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.5S 161.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.7S 162.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.7S 163.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Quoting VR46L: line moving through NE Texas and into LA.

Will be interesting to see what happens when that line meets daytime heating.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FOG IMPACT...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN
VEHICLES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4 TO 6
FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE FRONT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7
FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY DRY SOILS IN PLACE
WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

COLSON
I don't usually quote Scripture here, but given a certain segment of the U.S. population will likely deny our Cro-Magnon genes until all the ice sheets melt and hell arrives.

Part I - Do you throw out this good example, or do you keep it for future reference?

"Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. 25 The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house; yet it did not fall, because it had its foundation on the rock. 26 But everyone who hears these words of mine and does not put them into practice is like a foolish man who built his house on sand. 27 The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash." JC

Because part II is arguably a weather forecast from the same guy.

"... nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea." JC

Isaac means "laughter," a name given because an old woman laughed at another forecast.

As for what "Sandy" might mean to the faithful, a brain the size of a mustard seed should be able to figure it out.

A huge dust storm hit Tokyo Sunday, blanketing the city with brown dust that darkened the skies and rapidly transformed what had been a clear and sunny day. Visibility in the capital deteriorated quickly as dry dust particles whirled through the air. Meteorologists said the phenomenon was caused by a sudden cold front, and was not linked with the suffocating pollution that hung over the Chinese capital Beijing last winter. "A rapidly developing low pressure system in the north was moving down south. It was bringing a snow storm in the north, and strong winds in Tokyo and surrounding areas," said a meteorologist at the Japan Meteorological Agency. "In the Kanto region (Tokyo and surrounding areas), the strong winds picked up dry dust particles from the ground, which lowered visibility," he said. The phenomenon was expected to be temporary, and rain should strip the dust from the air, he said. Japan and other regional countries have voiced concern about the impact of airborne pollution drifting from their influential neighbor. The toxic haze that periodically blankets parts of China has been blamed on emissions from coal burning in power stations but also on fumes from vehicles on the traffic-clogged streets of the world’s largest largest auto market. Media reports have said that environment ministers from Japan, China and South Korea will meet in May will discuss ways to combat air pollution.
From the "Some may not get it yet, but it's good to see that others are starting to" department:
Chief of US Pacific forces calls climate biggest worry

America's top military officer in charge of monitoring hostile actions by North Korea, escalating tensions between China and Japan, and a spike in computer attacks traced to China provides an unexpected answer when asked what is the biggest long-term security threat in the Pacific region: climate change.

Navy Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, in an interview at a Cambridge hotel Friday after he met with scholars at Harvard and Tufts universities, said significant upheaval related to the warming planet "is probably the most likely thing that is going to happen . . . that will cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about."
Source

IOW, despite the DPRK suicidally talking of launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States and/or South Korea; despite China's rapidly advancing (and frequently stolen) military technology, such as aircraft carriers and highly-accurate, warhead-capable ballistic missiles; despite the increasingly strained relationship between Tokyo and Beijing--the single greatest threat to stability in the region (and, thus, our national security and, you know, world peace) is the rapidly changing climate. Or so says the guy in charge of knowing what constitutes the greatest security threats in that region.

The greedy, lying bastards who are the subject of the documentary of which Dr. Masters wrote aren't just intentionally blocking action on climate change mitigation to pad their pockets. That would be bad enough--but they're actually engaging in what some believe history will see as willfully treasonous actions against the U.S. So I wouldn't want to be in their shoes when the you-know-what hits the spinning blades of reality. Even if those shoes are $15,000 a pair custom-cobbled Berlutis, I doubt they'll be very comfortable...
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z


...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...,,,WHILE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...SEVERAL FACTORS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE EVENT:

/1/ RELATIVELY WARM LAYERS AROUND THE 700-MB LEVEL PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RAOBS THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEPTH...
/2/ WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
/3/ ANTICIPATED ABSENCE OF STRONGER PRE-CONVECTIVE INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING...
/4/ LACK OF PHASING BETWEEN RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/RELATIVELY STRONGER BUOYANCY CONFINED TO SRN AREAS AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT CONFINED TO NRN AREAS...AND
/5/ RELATIVELY MORE SHALLOW/WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTIVE LINE PROVIDED IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

HOWEVER...WITH A 40-55-KT LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM LEADING AN 850-MB TROUGH...STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION OWING TO VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

LOW-END SVR-WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NWD INTO THE MID SOUTH...WHERE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MAX WILL SUPPORT A NWD-EXTENSION OF MEAGER BUOYANCYAMIDST MODESTLY STEEP SFC-1-KM-AGL LAPSE RATES AND 850-MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT.

A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SWRN MS INTO CNTRL LA WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AMIDST RELATIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

just tuning in... very impressive storm that is
High end Cat 3

expecting a nice warm and longer day today... sunset around 7 PM..yay!
Scarborough, Ontario – Riverdale, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
51.8 °F Mostly Cloudy

forecast high of 55 today almost there already
Another new swarm of locusts has been spotted in the Ramat HaNegev region in southern Israel, as small groups break off from an enormous “mother swarm” in the Giza region of Egypt.

Workers from the Agriculture Ministry were out in force bright and early Sunday morning, spraying pesticide in the Nachal Lavan area hoping to prevent further infestation of locusts in the Negev.

Warm weather and southern winds brought a swarm of some one million of the bugs across the border to Israel.

But as the locusts munched on local agriculture, some Jews started preparing to feast on them instead, ahead of the pesticide spraying by Agriculture Ministry officials.

Numerous Yemenite Jews flew from their homes by night to the fields to gather the winged creatures, which lie dormant in the dark. They spoke to reporters with nostalgia about the tradition of roasting the locusts, describing how they became “crispy like chips,” as one man said with a smile. He suggested a side of barbecue sauce.
More here
Hello Pcola...I know you're here!
...lol
Newer book in the news.

Floods in a changing climate. Extreme precipitation

Floods in a changing climate. Extreme precipitation
Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu
Book
Cambridge University Press, 2012
xvii, 269 pages, [4] pages of color plates : illustrations (some color), maps (some color) ; 29 cm


Description
Measurement, analysis and modeling of extreme precipitation events linked to floods is vital in understanding changing climate impacts and variability. This book provides methods for assessment of the trends in these events and their impacts. It also provides a basis to develop procedures and guidelines for climate-adaptive hydrologic engineering. Academic researchers in the fields of hydrology, climate change, meteorology, environmental policy and risk assessment, and professionals and policy-makers working in hazard mitigation, water resources engineering and climate adaptation will find this an invaluable resource. This volume is the first in a collection of four books on flood disaster management theory and practice within the context of anthropogenic climate change. The others are: Floods in a Changing Climate: Hydrological Modeling by P. P. Mujumdar and D. Nagesh Kumar, Floods in a Changing Climate: Inundation Modeling by Giuliano Di Baldassarre and Floods in a Changing Climate: Risk Management by Slodoban Simonović.
Sandra..click pic for loop. Interesting anomaly in there.
Quoting Neapolitan:
From the "Some may not get it yet, but it's good to see that others are starting to" department:Source

IOW, despite the DPRK suicidally talking of launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the United States and/or South Korea; despite China's rapidly advancing (and frequently stolen) military technology, such as aircraft carriers and highly-accurate, warhead-capable ballistic missiles; despite the increasingly strained relationship between Tokyo and Beijing--the single greatest threat to stability in the region (and, thus, our national security and, you know, world peace) is the rapidly changing climate. Or so says the guy in charge of knowing what constitutes the greatest security threats in that region.

The greedy, lying bastards who are the subject of the documentary of which Dr. Masters wrote aren't just intentionally blocking action on climate change mitigation to pad their pockets. That would be bad enough--but they're actually engaging in what some believe history will see as willfully treasonous actions against the U.S. So I wouldn't want to be in their shoes when the you-know-what hits the spinning blades of reality. Even if those shoes are $15,000 a pair custom-cobbled Berlutis, I doubt they'll be very comfortable...


I wish the denialists would start paying attention to what the military leaders are saying about climate change. This recent statement by ADM Locklear is certainly a wake-up call. This next Tuesday, Rear Admiral Jonathan White, US Navy Oceanographer and Navigator, will be speaking at The Economist Arctic Summit in Oslo, Norway. Some of the most alarming predictions regarding global sea-level rise have been published by Dr. Maszlowski from the US Naval Post-Graduate School. I have personally attended an unclassified National Security briefing by a US Army General, where he expressed concerns over future conflicts due to water shortages caused by AGW/CC.

Wake up folks, the problem is real and it's happening faster than most people are willing to acknowledge
Quoting Skyepony:

They spoke to reporters with nostalgia about the tradition of roasting the locusts, describing how they became “crispy like chips,” as one man said with a smile. He suggested a side of barbecue sauce.
More here

I prefer chicken wings - and neither before breakfast on the first morning of DST!
I wish the weather would stay like it is today for a little while. It is already 60F outside with the forecast high being 62F.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I think I started that subject along with washi.


ohh, yeah I went back to try to figure it out. yep Was. did
random question...

what if some major event happened today right at 2 AM (which was also 3 AM)...on the dot!

like a major earthquake, death or accident? just curious about telling the time.
GOING FOR 70F TODAY!!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Well, that was disgusting. Not surprised, but it is worse than I thought it was when all the numbers come out. Thanks for posting that. Might open some eyes.
my NWS calls for heavy rain with wind reaching wind-advisory levels across the entire area
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
random question...

what if some major event happened today right at 2 AM (which was also 3 AM)...on the dot!

like a major earthquake, death or accident? just curious about telling the time.


They'd probs list as GMT time? Our clocks don't go forward until the last day of March here
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


They'd probs list as GMT time? Our clocks don't go forward until the last day of March here


yeah, well I was just wondering how would it be here in the Conus...
Peaceful sunday to everybody from Germany, where winter is moving in again. I've just protected my outside plants again :-/


Link

Uncomfortable news from space. Sometimes I wish we wouldn't know ...

Earth gets a rush of weekend asteroid visitors
By Irene Klotz | Reuters %u2013 15 hrs ago

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla., March 9 - An asteroid as big as a city block shot relatively close by the Earth on Saturday, the latest in a series of visiting celestial objects including an asteroid the size of a bus that exploded over Russia last month, injuring 1,500.

Discovered just six days ago, the 460-foot long (140-meter) Asteroid 2013 ET passed about 600,000 miles from Earth at 3:30 p.m. EST. That's about 2-1/2 times as far as the moon, fairly close on a cosmic yardstick.

"The scary part of this one is that it's something we didn't even know about," Patrick Paolucci, president of Slooh Space Camera, said during a webcast featuring live images of the asteroid from a telescope in the Canary Islands.


Read the whole article about more recent discoveries


Found on Global disaster watch (usefull site!)
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


I wish the denialists would start paying attention to what the military leaders are saying about climate change. This recent statement by ADM Locklear is certainly a wake-up call. This next Tuesday, Rear Admiral Jonathan White, US Navy Oceanographer and Navigator, will be speaking at The Economist Arctic Summit in Oslo, Norway. Some of the most alarming predictions regarding global sea-level rise have been published by Dr. Maszlowski from the US Naval Post-Graduate School. I have personally attended an unclassified National Security briefing by a US Army General, where he expressed concerns over future conflicts due to water shortages caused by AGW/CC.

Wake up folks, the problem is real and it's happening faster than most people are willing to acknowledge


You need to wake up congress, they control the money for all projects.
This should start to go up soon, my allergies are already getting me. Leaf buds should come out later this month as well.

Been too cold for them until now. Next week spring kicks into high gear, minus the storms

06z GEFS 8-16 day temperature anomalies..

Forest fires in South Korea. But very close to the road and adjacent buildings!


And another video from the sandstorm hitting Tokyo
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
This should start to go up soon, my allergies are already getting me. Leaf buds should come out later this month as well.

Been too cold for them until now. Next week spring kicks into high gear, minus the storms

gee GS, the oak tree's here THIS year really produced tons of pollen,just about finished now around me, it was awful.
alot of moisture with this next front.......
GFS Midweek.................................
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS Midweek.................................
Yesssss!Rain for me omg what a great gift.
Another beautiful day here in south Florida.... Not hot, not cold. Love it
Quoting allancalderini:
Yesssss!Rain for me omg what a great gift.
Quoting allancalderini:
Yesssss!Rain for me omg what a great gift.
yes same here im supposed to get rain Tuesday..i sure hope so.
Quoting allahgore:


You need to wake up congress, they control the money for all projects.


What would we tell congress to do?

Our automobiles are more fuel efficient than ever.
Our industries are more efficient than ever when it comes to emissions.
Congress continues the ethanol subsidy, though I have not seen any findings that ethanol based emissions are less harmful than fossil fuels.
Wind energy may not be the answer according to a recent Harvard publication that indicates the proliferaton of wind farms may be contributing to AGW.

Does anyone know if WU or TWC has issued a sustainability report regarding their operations. This would include power consumption, power sources, recycling efforts, carbon foot print, etc. I think it would be an interesting read.

Snow isnt over..GFS this time NEXT sunday.........
Hello Sandra, looking good right now.
Quoting LargoFl:
alot of moisture with this next front.......
Uggh please no more rain for a while.The mud has been all squishy squashy now for weeks.But I can all ready see this becoming a 2011 repeat rain every week every 2-4 days apart.Thus flooding problems arise..
The ECMWF ensembles are definitely helpful in determining how this hurricane season will turn out..

/end sarcasm



The ECMWF itself has above-average mean sea level pressures across the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. Makes no sense to me given the current SST profiles.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ECMWF ensembles are definitely helpful in determining how this hurricane season will turn out..

/end sarcasm



The ECMWF itself has above-average mean sea level pressures across the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. Makes no sense to me.

After how horrible the models did in the long range for the 2012 hurricane season I not beleiving anything until the season is officially underway.Remember the ECWMF had a moderate el niño in the pacific by September which never came to pass.
Quoting airmet3:


What would we tell congress to do?

Our automobiles are more fuel efficient than ever.
Our industries are more efficient than ever when it comes to emissions.
Congress continues the ethanol subsidy, though I have not seen any findings that ethanol based emissions are less harmful than fossil fuels.
Wind energy may not be the answer according to a recent Harvard publication that indicates the proliferaton of wind farms may be contributing to AGW.

Does anyone know if WU or TWC has issued a sustainability report regarding their operations. This would include power consumption, power sources, recycling efforts, carbon foot print, etc. I think it would be an interesting read.



I would be interested in seeing a graph with global population overlaid with CO2 emissions.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ECMWF ensembles are definitely helpful in determining how this hurricane season will turn out..

/end sarcasm



The ECMWF itself has above-average mean sea level pressures across the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. Makes no sense to me.

What does that would mean?Active In the Atlantic and Pacific or below average in both oceans of tropical activity.
568. VR46L
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


They'd probs list as GMT time? Our clocks don't go forward until the last day of March here


You are right ! Near everything is listed on GMT/Zulu time . Even though Greenwich spends half the year on BST ...
Quoting allancalderini:
What does that would mean?Active In the Atlantic and Pacific or below average in both oceans of tropical activity.

It would mean less storms in both.
ECMWF wants to heat the west and freeze the east again in 10 days

just a little longer spring is to the west

Warm down here






Cold up there:

577. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Uggh please no more rain for a while.The mud has been all squishy squashy now for weeks.But I can all ready see this becoming a 2011 repeat rain every week every 2-4 days apart.Thus flooding problems arise..


You know , I wouldn't be surprised at all if the US has a damp year this year , just like I had a similar feeling about last year where I lived every day between Jan and April all I heard about was drought and restrictions ...havent heard a word since ! LOL

Just taking into ac the way the Atlantic is setting up with warmer SST in the tropic area and Cooler where they should be north of 30N .. There arent gonna be early Fish storms but Moisture will get to areas that need it hopefully In the form of rain and not storms ....JMO
No real severe wx chances till at least 11 days from now.

european 4 panel 850mb dipiction
Scarborough, Ontario – Riverdale, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
54.9 °F Scattered Clouds
Minitornado makes a hurt and damage to more than 20 homes in Póvoa do Varzim Link
far away from cities..
Quoting Luisport:
Minitornado makes a hurt and damage to more than 20 homes in Póvoa do Varzim Link
video and photos Link


nice day in the east enjoy my short spring shot everything running in water here got 2 more days of melt to go hoping there is next to nothing left for snow before the cold shot rtns
Quoting Luisport:
video and photos Link
Aveiro region can have them in the next hour Link
Beach is closed due to large swells here in Nassau. Never ever seen that before. Waves on the reef are probably pushing 30ft.
Started from the cold now spring's here



Sandrine a la française!
Saturn is starting to develop some tropical characteristics.
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
Saturn is starting to develop some tropical characteristics.




67.1 right now, normal is 70/46
low was 47.5@3:40 and then the Santa Ana winds kicked up and it was 16.0
as of 7:26 this morning, which is a tidy warmup. Forecast for 72...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


This was expected?
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
Saturn is starting to develop some tropical characteristics.

Where are you getting that idea from?
Quoting Luisport:
This was expected?


Saturn is extratropical...I don't know why people say something else.
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
Saturn is starting to develop some tropical characteristics.

What?
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
Saturn is starting to develop some tropical characteristics.


Which is more believable:

the "Saturn" in the ocean gaining tropical characteristics

or the planet gaining tropical characteristics.

Neither are becoming tropical in nature, where do you think you see that happening?
Scarborough, Ontario – Riverdale, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
56.8 °F Scattered Clouds
Its really a Beautiful day here today...........
approaching 60 degrees here in south central ontario

The low over the central Atlantic--Saturn--does indeed have very marginal subtropical characteristics. It's an upper-level, marginal [temperature] low with a representation at both the mid and lower levels, as well as a cloud-free center with maximum sustained winds (in the order of 30-35 knots) well removed from the core.

Development is not expected though.
This was Jose.... compare and contrast
tomorrow morning is going to get interesting huh....
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
Saturn is starting to develop some tropical characteristics.



No its not
Saturn phase analysis per the GFS.
NEB warning still On.....................BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM
CDT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD...SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST.

* WINDS...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF AT LEAST
2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 6 TO 9 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
NARROW SNOW BANDS.

* IMPACT...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
SNOW...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...LOW VISIBILITY...AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS. VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH
I just went to the NHC site...didn't do since January.

Some changes to the wording TC Position estimate and something about storm surge...
Quoting LargoFl:
tomorrow morning is going to get interesting huh....


614. VR46L
seems to be very little of concern on S. MS Valley radar at the moment...

At least I am on the good side of the divide, or should I say the right side?

people in the midwest and west Should..be posting their warnings and weather in here as well as the east coasters do huh..lots of weather out west also...would be nice to see that happen in here......URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1227 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...WINTER STORM AFFECTING MUCH OF IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM OVER MISSOURI IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORM WILL BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION SOME FREEZING RAIN HAS ALSO DEVELOPED DURING THE
TRANSITION PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT...CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
Quoting Astrometeor:
At least I am on the good side of the divide, or should I say the right side?



I have to wait to get into April to get those 60s.... want the cold to go!
I don't always like warm weather, but when I do, I post pictures and enjoy it immensely in the wintertime.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I have to wait to get into April to get those 60s.... want the cold to go!


What is the current temperature up your way Max? Keep said something about his neck of the woods approaching 60 already.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Tropical Cyclone Sandra has completed rapid intens burst over past 12-24 hrs, 110-120 knots intensity: IR sat:
Link
I'm not sure if anyone does but does anyone have copy of the blizzard warnings issued in advance for Sandy? I can't find any, some NWS offices might kept an archive somewhere.

I just want to look for wind intensities besides the now
BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi 42 min

I dont recall seeing this kind of cold ( nearly 20 below normal, 5 days) in the bluish areas) in March Link
Not much water in the atmosphere in the way of getting some thunderstorm convection to start up. Up in the left in Nebraska you can see the faint clouds needed to get a minor blizzard going.

I am under a wind advisory right now, sustained winds of 20-30 mph, gusts to 40 mph.

Quoting Astrometeor:


What is the current temperature up your way Max? Keep said something about his neck of the woods approaching 60 already.


yesterday we hit 55F!. I went walking outside in shorts for the first time this year.

It's 42F here :I
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yesterday we hit 55F!. I went walking outside in shorts for the first time this year.

It's 42F here :I


55 is not warm enough for a southerner like me to go around in shorts yet, maybe in April it will get warm enough for me to ditch my jacket.
Quoting Astrometeor:


55 is not warm enough for a southerner like me to go around in shorts yet, maybe in April it will get warm enough for me to ditch my jacket.


you said it!
I'll take a tan outside with 60F! lol
628. VR46L
I like this Image from Modis today ... Really shows where the front is ...

-4C here in Scotland. Almost fell on some treacherous black ice walking back from the supermarket half an hour ago. It has a light dusting of snow on top, making it look safer than it is.

There's a cold east wind coming from Scandinavia. Wind chill tomorrow expected to make it feel like -8C.
630. VR46L
Modis has managed to pick up some of The storm of last week Starting to move across the Atlantic

631. VR46L
Quoting yonzabam:
-4C here in Scotland. Almost fell on some treacherous black ice walking back from the supermarket half an hour ago. It has a light dusting of snow on top, making it look safer than it is.

There's a cold east wind coming from Scandinavia. Wind chill tomorrow expected to make it feel like -8C.


Yep We are under a Weather warming expected to get between 3cm to 8 cm as I write this a light hail shower is starting .. I miss the spring of the past couple of weeks already

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Snow-ice Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Donegal, Mayo, Cork, Kerry, Tipperary and Waterford
Scattered snow showers this evening, tonight and on Monday will give accumulations of between 3 and 8 cm.

Snow will lie at lower levels as well as on high ground. Amounts will be highest in coastal counties of Leinster.

Fresh to strong, gusty northeast winds will make for blizzard conditions in places during snow showers. A widespread sharp or severe frost tonight, lingering in many areas tomorrow.

Issued:10 March 2013 12:00
Valid:10 March 2013 18:00 to 11 March 2013 18:00

Good afternoon to all. Dry weather will dominate the NE Caribbean for most of this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN MAR 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER PR MAINLAND BUT THEY WERE MORE
AT MIDDLE LEVEL THIS MORNING WHICH KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE.
NOW THEY LOOK SOMEWHAT MORE CONVECTIVE AND TERRAIN INDUCED SO
WOULD THINK THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS WILL GET STARTED AT ANY
TIME. BUT DON/T BELIEVE THEY WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH SINCE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SHALLOW.

SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR YET THIS SEASON WILL ARRIVE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE DOMINANT AND PERSISTENT LOW IN WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO SPIN AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING THE SUBSIDING AIR
DOWN THE BACKSIDE. THERE ARE HOWEVER A FEW PERIODS WHEN BETTER
MOISTURE SWINGS DOWN BELOW 850 MB...MOST NOTABLY ON MON NIGHT AND
AGAIN THU. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL AT LEAST
THU.

TRADE WINDS TO BE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE FIRE
THREAT FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. BUT STILL NO BREAK TO THE DRY
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
SFC-2K FT WINDS WILL BE A AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND HAVE A STRONG
NORTHERLY COMPONENT WITH SOME VARIATIONS AT THE SFC DUE TO SEA
BREEZE...ESPECIALLY FOR TJPS UNTIL 10/22Z...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AT THE SURFACE AFTER 11/00Z. DEVELOPING CLOUDS
WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY. VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SEAS AND SURF MAY CONTINUE INTO WED WITH THE SLOW
EXIT OF THE DEEP SYSTEM IN WESTERN ATLANTIC. DECAYING CURRENT
CONDITIONS FROM BUOY 41048 GIVES STILL 10 FEET OFF OF NORTH SHORE
WITH A PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. BUT THIS
EVENT MAY NOT DECREASE UNTIL TUE. ESSENTIALLY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ATTM UNTIL THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 82 71 81 / 10 10 10 10
STT 70 81 71 80 / 10 10 20 10
Ice crystals falling out of the sky here. Wish they would stop evaporating, cool the column down, and start a blizzard.

But that's not going to happen.


Image courtesy of the NWS in Wilmington
Brrr, that's in the north of Germany today at the coast of the Baltic Sea (Island of Ruegen)


In 1818 Caspar David Friedrich created his famous painting of the Chalk Cliffs of Ruegen.
635. VR46L
@634 Beautiful Picture

Heres one for you try and spot europe Under the Nasty front and storms about...LOL

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY FOUR (17F)
6:00 AM FST March 11 2013
=========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Sandra (930 hPa) located at 16.8S 161.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 5 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
150 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Deep convection persistent and overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Eye discernible in infrared. Outflow good especially to the south and east. System lies in a low sheared environment with moderate upper divergence. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. SANDRA currently tracking along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge positioned to the east.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye and B surround yielding DT=6.0, PAT=5.5, and MET=6.0. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Most models agree on south southeast movement with gradual weakening after 18-24 hours

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.9S 162.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.2S 162.7E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.6S 164.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Scarborough, Ontario – Riverdale, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
57.2 °F Mostly Cloudy

clouding over now doubt we make 60 but we were close not bad fer early march
You know, I remember when this blog used to be a weather blog.
I posted almost two weeks ago that the CMC was seeing a warm core system heading off the east coast in the long range in consistent runs and well of course the CMC was ridiculed as usual...
Good afternoon. TC Sandra is looking very good right now.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2013 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 16:44:42 S Lon : 161:24:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 947.4mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.4 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -3.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 140km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.2 degrees
an update on the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami

"Some 300,000 people are still homeless, living in residential camps, according to the Japanese government."

It happened two years ago.
Quoting SPLbeater:
You know, I remember when this blog used to be a weather blog.
Really? I've been reading it since its inception, and it's always been a "Whatever Dr. Masters is passionate enough about to write about" blog. I've never seen him veer from that...
Quoting ncstorm:
I posted almost two weeks ago that the CMC was seeing a warm core system heading off the east coast in the long range in consistent runs and well of course the CMC was ridiculed as usual...

The models are all being improved. If not, then there's not much point in keeping them.
645. VR46L
Quoting bappit:
an update on the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami

"Some 300,000 people are still homeless, living in residential camps, according to the Japanese government."

It happened two years ago.


I will never forget that day , Just turned on the morning news and so much destruction occoured so quickly It was immensely sad and frightening . And it re affirmed my believe that Mother Nature is still in charge .
Sorry if this was posted already, but check out the last two frames of the 12z Euro run today!



From today for our floridians ...

Sea level rise could threaten Miami facilities
Updated 12:51 pm, Sunday, March 10, 2013

MIAMI (AP) — Three major sewage plants in South Florida could be reduced to shrinking islands in less than 50 years due to climate change, according to a group of climate scientists.

The scientists believe rising sea level will threaten some of the region's most vital facilities. It will also flood land, streets and neighborhoods nearby, The Miami Herald reported Sunday.

The scenario was drawn up by five experts from the University of Miami, Florida International University and Florida Atlantic University retained by Biscayne Bay Waterkeeper. The clean-water advocacy group is challenging Miami-Dade's $1.5 billion plan to repair the county's troubled sewage system.


Read the whole article



Scarborough, Ontario – Riverdale, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
58.1 °F Mostly Cloudy

this station made it to 58.6°F dropping now
Quoting VR46L:


I will never forget that day , Just turned on the morning news and so much destruction occoured so quickly It was immensely sad and frightening . And it re affirmed my believe that Mother Nature is still in charge .

From the article:

"While hundreds of thousands of lives were saved by the warnings, thousands were lost because people believed the country's protective seawalls would hold, government reports found. Some also missed the later, revised warnings."

Moral seems to be: don't be overconfident, and get the warnings to everyone. Sad we have people actively subverting the warnings about global warming.
The below is an example of why I rarely take a major part in the environmental debates.
And there is so MUCH more going on that's related to Canadian oil and the World oil market.
I expect there will be very few WUbers who will read it.
BTW Canada is a foreign supplier, no matter how much a certain few want us to believe otherwise
aspectre: The current pipeline already provides as much as the US "needs", and has the capacity to provide even more. The XL is designed to export Canadian oil out of the US.
501 KarenRei: Simply not true. The existing pipeline provides only 5% of US oil imports.

Nope. eg "The top five exporting countries [to the US] accounted for 79 percent of...crude oil imports... Canada (2,502 thousand barrels per day), Venezuela (1,054 thousand barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1,030 thousand barrels per day), Mexico (954 thousand barrels per day) and Iraq* (462 thousand barrels per day)..." for a total of 6002thousand barrels per day.
Canada's export of 2502/6002 of 79% is equal to ~33% of US imports.
5%-divided-by-33% means that 16.5% (~1/6th) of Canada's export to the US is from the tar sands.
Other months, different fractions. Over the somewhat recent years, usually Nigeria is one of the top five, and SaudiArabia* usually isn't, but Canada is always the top oil exporter to the US (since Mexico ceased to be).

Now just to make it clear that I'm playing as fair as I can for this example (considering the amount of information that I can easily dig up)...
... there's sleight of hand being performed on that UnitedStatesEnergyInformationAdministration report.
Oil is fairly fungible: ie oil from one place can more-or-less be replaced by oil from a different place. Sweet light crude is MUCH more desirable than sour heavy crude.
Sweet means less corrosive to pipes, refinery components, storage&shipping tanks, and cargo holds. Sour means more corrosive.
Sweet also means less sulphur has to be removed, and heavy means more. Removal costs energy&money.
Light means more of the component hydrocarbons that can be either directly refined or easily cracked into the the more desired (and thus more valuable) petroleum fractions such as gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel. Heavy means less: so a greater amount has to be cracked in order to produce the most desired fuels. And more cracking means more energy&money has to be spent to produce the desired products.
Have to trade more sour&heavy for less sweet&light -- and have to reconfigure refineries with each sweet&light, sour&light, sweet&heavy, sour&heavy, bitumen (aka tar sand "oil") switch -- but they're still fungible, more-or-less.

And sour heavy crude is MUCH more desirable than the highly corrosive crud coming out of the Alberta tar sands. Plus that crud has to be mixed with heavy diesel (refined from the more desirable crude) along with undesirable components such as benzene (toxic waste from the more desirable crude) so that it will flow through a pipeline.

5% is all that the US wants from the tar sands, mostly as a hedge against oil price increases by other oil exporting nations, as in "If you don't give us what we want, we'll buy more of this already overpriced crud. You'll end up with nothing. And guess what? You won't be able to pay off your loans, so your economy will collapse."
Not that things really work that directly. Because of the fungibility, the exporting nation can still sell it to non-boycotting nations BUT at a large enough discount that other oil-exporting nations have to sell their product cheaper to fulfill their loan obligations... part of which the US buys to fill the oil shortfall created by boycotting.

So the boycotted nation receives less for its crude; has less money to pay off its loans and to pay for its subsidies. One of the largest subsidies in most oil exporting nations with a LARGE number of poor is for fuel; the other is for food. And when prices start skyrocketing on fuel and food because the subsidies are decreased, they have a whole heck of a lot of VERY unhappy*citizens.
Look at how unhappy Americans get with comparatively small increases in gasoline prices.

Digressed a bit, back to the USEIA's prestidigitation.
A significant fraction of that Canadian oil export is crude imported into Canada from the MiddleEast and WestAfrica:
some of which is shipped (through the GreatLakes) or piped to the US Midwest;
and some of which is refined and used in the Canadian and the American East, which allows more Canadian crude to be exported to the American Midwest.
So some of that 33% which Canada exports to the US is MiddleEastern/WestAfrican in origin or as replacement.
With less than 33% of Canada's export being directly from a "I give you US money, you give me Canadian oil" trade, the 5% of tar sand crud is more than 1/6th of Canada's total export to the US, but still a lesser fraction.
We do the same. Japan, China, and SouthKorea are often the first purchasers of MiddleEastern and WestAfrican crude. They then send that crude to the US EastCoast and to Canada (see above) as payment for Alaskan crude.
ie Very little Alaskan crude is used in the US. Shorter shipping route from Alaska means that for Asia's largest importers, it's cheaper to send their crude purchases to the US directly&indirectly, then have it replaced by Alaska crude than to pay for the extra shipping time&distance. Nearly free "instantaneous teleportation" (so to speak) across NorthAmerica through oil-contract exchanges over the communication lines.
There's also Alaskan oil to western Canada in exchange for Canadian oil to the American Midwest.

* When the Saudis become one of the top five US suppliers, it's quid pro quo time. In this case, the Saudis along with Kuwait and the UnitedArabEmirates are as unhappy about the prospect of Iran getting nukes as the US was about Russian nukes being stationed in Cuba during the CubanMissileCrisis. More so: the Russians retained control of its nukes, while the Iranians will have control should they succeed in getting TheBomb.
When the US left Iraq, a LOT of what was removed could have been considered to be a part of a very effective tried&proven defense force protecting those three nations.
So the Saudis&etc sweetened the deal by guaranteeing that they'd sell crude at discount prices to nations that participated in boycotting Iran. And the US got some of that benefit.

Interestingly enough, Iraqi oil is VERY desirable because of the boycott against SaddamHussein. While other MiddleEastern&SouthAmerican nations were pumping out crude and making money hand over fist, Iraq was forced to save by being prevented from selling.
Nowadays most MiddleEastern and SouthAmerican crude is sour&heavy or quickly heading that way.
Meanwhile Iraq still has sweet&light that it can sell for MUCH more money than it could have in the past when darn near every exporter had some sweet&light. And since it wasn't exporting, the reservoirs are still full, making it cheap&easy to extract Iraqi crude (compared to the rest of the world) so there's a HUGE windfall profit from low production cost. Iraq is one of the few places left on land in which "up from the ground came a bubbling crude" withouf pumping remains possible.

Ironicly, because there was low participation in the Embargo against Iran, the Iranian crude that remains is now mostly the less desirable sour&heavy, which is evermore difficult&expensive to extract, leaving everless profit for production. So there's FAR less incentive for former purchasers to ignore the boycott...
...especially with the Saudis&etc lowering their price points, as well as heavily buying up (debt) bonds to finance those importing nations' deficit spending.
With far less money available for subsidies, Iran's fuel&food prices are becoming almost unaffordable. And it's inflation rate is even higher: high enough that the better-off Iranians are engaging in blackmarket trade for Afghani money.
653. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
I posted almost two weeks ago that the CMC was seeing a warm core system heading off the east coast in the long range in consistent runs and well of course the CMC was ridiculed as usual...


I think its better than the NAM ..Just My Opinion .

The one I will really want to see how it preforms this coming season is the new Navy one as it base start will the same as the GFS . It will be interesting to see how it deviates when the information gets fed it .
nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 6

I wouldn't think a day like today wuld be good for fires but I guess i'm wrong.... 2 brush fires in my county and both of them have 20 fire trucks fighting them... (May not seem like much but for a county in PA in March.... its quite alot)
nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 9

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Sorry if this was posted already, but check out the last two frames of the 12z Euro run today!





I love to see how far out in time it is...
nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 12

nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 15

nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 18

nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 21
nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 27
664. VR46L
Quoting bappit:

From the article:

"While hundreds of thousands of lives were saved by the warnings, thousands were lost because people believed the country's protective seawalls would hold, government reports found. Some also missed the later, revised warnings."

Moral seems to be: don't be overconfident, and get the warnings to everyone. Sad we have people actively subverting the warnings about global warming.


I honestly dont know what The Tsunami has to do with GW. I do believe some warming is happening ..But I still think Mother Nature is the most unpredictable variable .

The plates have always been in flux Take Krakatoa eruption in 1883 For Example.

Krakatoa

nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 30
nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 36
nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 39

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nam-hires namer
20130310 18 UTC
sim_reflectivity
HR 30


Bring it on!
Quoting auburn:


Bring it on!
late tomorrom night aub from about 9 pm till midnight and just after midnight the worst of whatever will be passing over head then the stupid cool down which i perfer not to have

o well couple of more weeks i reckon
Looks like Sandra's eyewall is beginning to slowly fall apart. The system made it to 135 mph--higher than I thought it would--and would have achieved even higher without the presence of dry air.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
late tomorrom night aub from about 9 pm till midnight and just after midnight the worst of whatever will be passing over head then the stupid cool down which i perfer not to have

o well couple of more weeks i reckon


we hit 80 today.
east coast florida beaches kinda dangerous today....
The surfers in the NE Caribbean are delighted as big swells are arriving from that low pressrure in the Atlantic. Images are from St Marteen and Rincon,PR.



Quoting auburn:


we hit 80 today.
almost 60 today here gonna suck on wed when we may not break 32 with squalls of snow flurries they are forcasting lows in the high teens by thur fri night brrr
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ice crystals falling out of the sky here. Wish they would stop evaporating, cool the column down, and start a blizzard.

But that's not going to happen.


Image courtesy of the NWS in Wilmington


ummmm it's like 70F
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Sorry if this was posted already, but check out the last two frames of the 12z Euro run today!





Aw man...please tell me winter aint comin back to me..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like Sandra's eyewall is beginning to slowly fall apart. The system made it to 135 mph--higher than I thought it would--and would have achieved even higher without the presence of dry air.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like Sandra's eyewall is beginning to slowly fall apart. The system made it to 135 mph--higher than I thought it would--and would have achieved even higher without the presence of dry air.

At least she reached cat 4 before weakening I might be wrong but with the Exception of Sandra all the other storms in Australian season had been very week.
Hate to say it but, south florida really needs for one of these rain events to sit over them for a few days, maybe more..but then..the rainy season is almost here just a few more months.................................
...Moderate Drought Conditions over extreme southern portion of South Florida...

...Abnormally Dry Conditions rest of South Florida......

Quoting VR46L:


I honestly dont know what The Tsunami has to do with GW. I do believe some warming is happening ..But I still think Mother Nature is the most unpredictable variable .

The plates have always been in flux Take Krakatoa eruption in 1883 For Example.

Krakatoa


It is a question of morality.
I have broken 70F at my house!
yes!

Every other attempt at my house this year failed, ending at 65-69.
Quoting allancalderini:
At least she reached cat 4 before weakening I might be wrong but with the Exception of Sandra all the other storms in Australian season had been very week.


sir...Cyclone Narelle reached category 4 in SSHS
Circumnavigated western Australia
Quoting auburn:


Bring it on!

I'm ready for the thunderstorms. :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ummmm it's like 70F

67F to be exact. What's your point?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I have broken 70F at my house!
yes!

Every other attempt at my house this year failed, ending at 65-69.
...feels NICE huh GS...yeah at my place almost 80..really a wonderful day here
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
almost 60 today here gonna suck on wed when we may not break 32 with squalls of snow flurries they are forcasting lows in the high teens by thur fri night brrr

it was 1 degree below 60 here. Such a beautiful day here.
Interesting on Day 3 from the SPC

SPC AC 100916

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN NC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EWD ONTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ERN NC AT 15Z SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60 F...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 60 KT AND 0-1 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 35
KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS BEFORE 18Z WHEN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MOST FAVORABLE. DUE TO THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
BEFORE THE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL INTRODUCE A LOW-END SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA IN ERN NC.

..BROYLES.. 03/10/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2110Z (5:10PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
337 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

ILC123-175-102330-
/O.NEW.KILX.FA.Y.0001.130310T2037Z-130310T2330Z/
/00000.N.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MARSHALL IL-STARK IL-
337 PM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW IN...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
STARK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT.

* AT 334 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED MINOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...INCLUDING AROUND
HENRY AND WYOMING. RISES WERE REPORTED ON AREA STREAMS AND WATER
WAS FLOWING OUT OF FIELDS ONTO ROADS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
LACON...BRADFORD...CAMP GROVE...CASTLETON...ELMIRA...HENRY...LA
FAYETTE...OSCEOLA...SPARLAND...TOLUCA...TOULON...V ARNA...WEST
JERSEY AND WYOMING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
Quoting Articuno:

it was 1 degree below 60 here. Such a beautiful day here.
I'm sitting at 64.5F right now, it is nice weather for March.
yes!..we just broke 80.....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

67F to be exact. What's your point?


ice crystals cooling the air from 67 and starting a blizzard?
whoa...this front is gonna be a soaker huh
would be Nice if THIS sat over florida a few days huh..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ice crystals cooling the air from 67 and starting a blizzard?

A fantasy, yes. Perhaps that is why I stated, "...but that's not going to happen."
Quoting Articuno:

it was 1 degree below 60 here. Such a beautiful day here.


we were 1.4 degrees short of 60 made it to 58.6 at 4 pm
No such luck..a one day rain event,then its gone....
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
331 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

MDZ011-014-110345-
/O.NEW.KLWX.CF.A.0002.130311T1600Z-130312T0400Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130311T1600Z/
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-
331 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* TIDAL ANOMALY...BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 FEET.

* TIMING...WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF HIGH TIDE.

* EXPECTED IMPACTS...MODERATE SHORELINE INUNDATION. NUMEROUS
ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY BEGIN IF PREVENTATIVE
MEASURES ARE NOT TAKEN.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...
ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...

BOWLEY BAR...7:39 PM TONIGHT...AND 7:43 AM AND 8:24 PM MONDAY...
FORT MCHENRY BALTIMORE...6:48 PM TONIGHT...AND 6:52 AM AND 7:33 PM
MONDAY...
ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY...5:24 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 5:32 AM
AND 6:08 PM MONDAY...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$
222hr ECMWF is crazy
wow even DC itself........COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
331 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

DCZ001-MDZ007-013-016>018-VAZ052>055-057-110345-
/O.EXT.KLWX.CF.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-130312T0400Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-HARFORD-PRINCE GEORGES-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-
331 PM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
NIGHT...

* TIDAL ANOMALY...AROUND 2 FEET WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE
TODAY.

* TIMING...A PERIOD AROUND HIGH TIDE.

* EXPECTED IMPACTS...MINOR SHORELINE INUNDATION.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...
ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
HAVRE DE GRACE...9:47 PM TONIGHT...AND 10:24 AM AND 10:35 PM MONDAY...

CHESAPEAKE BEACH...4:01 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 4:05 AM AND 4:46 PM
MONDAY...
SOLOMONS ISLAND...2:26 AM AND 2:50 PM MONDAY...
POINT LOOKOUT...1:24 AM AND 2:05 PM MONDAY...

NOW ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER...
WASHINGTON CHANNEL...8:00 PM TONIGHT...AND 8:24 AM AND 8:50 PM
MONDAY...
ALEXANDRIA...8:18 PM TONIGHT...AND 8:42 AM AND 9:08 PM MONDAY...
INDIAN HEAD...7:46 PM TONIGHT...AND 8:10 AM AND 8:36 PM MONDAY...
AQUIA CREEK...6:32 PM TONIGHT...AND 6:56 AM AND 7:22 PM MONDAY...
GOOSE BAY...3:52 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 4:16 AM AND 4:42 PM MONDAY...
COLTON POINT...3:06 AM AND 3:32 PM MONDAY...
PINEY POINT...2:30 AM AND 2:56 PM MONDAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

HTS
700. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
No such luck..a one day rain event,then its gone....


Dont forget last spring in the Panhandle I think over 10 inches fell in one day and the amount that fell was not expected. If I remember Correctly...Edit looked at rain fall total on NCEP less than an inch is expected Sorry!!
Starts with another SW dipping trough in 8 days (like Saturn), bombs out over GA/SC and then bombs waaaay out at the east coast.


along with deep cold for areas down to florida.

-10C 850mb temps in N GA


crazy
Quoting VR46L:


Dont forget last spring in the Panhandle I think over 10 inches fell in one day and the amount that fell was not expected. If I remember Correctly
..yeah I wish THAT would happen to us in central florida we need the rainfall,but south florida even more.
705. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
..yeah I wish THAT would happen to us in central florida we need the rainfall,but south florida even more.


I think Jacksonville to St Augustine area is in real need too !
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats good, the worst of that cold front misses us,alot of growers south of me dont need any freezes any more this season.
Quoting VR46L:


I think Jacksonville to St Augustine area is in real need too !
..yes i think most of florida is dry and in some kind of drought..we need the rains to come
Quoting bappit:

It is a question of morality.

Why do you think all those people and corporations funding Donors Trust want to preserve their anonymity?
blizzard like winds in in the SE

lol

Winter 2012-13 Climate Summary: Warmer than Normal across SE GA & NE FL

This winter will be remembered mainly for its warmer than normal temperatures, and marked by brief episodes of sub-freezing temperatures and ending with a heavy rainfall event that brought several rivers in southeast Georgia above flood stage. In fact, Alma, GA (AMG) set a monthly rainfall record for February with 9.54 inches, breaking the old record of 9.27 inches set in 1986, and also setting 5 new daily rainfall records along the way. The winter overall was about 3 to 4 degrees above average, but the extreme warmth during the month of January also allowed for Jacksonville and Alma to set new monthly all-time record high temperatures of 86 and 83 degrees, respectively. The overall number of freeze events was below normal for the winter, but a significant cold snap during the middle of February brought a widespread hard freeze to the entire forecast area on the morning of February 18th.

yeah does not look good for a long rain event.......
new gfs from plymouth is coming in i will post it as soon as it done
Quoting VR46L:


Dont forget last spring in the Panhandle I think over 10 inches fell in one day and the amount that fell was not expected. If I remember Correctly...Edit looked at rain fall total on NCEP less than an inch is expected Sorry!!


Hey VR46L..
Last year, here in Pensacola on June 9, 2012, we broke a record set in 1908..
We picked up 12.71" of rain in a 24hr period..
That was miserable..
IS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT
BAXLEY...EVERETT CITY...AND CHARLOTTE. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE SATILLA RIVER AT ATKINSON AND THE ALAPAHA RIVER AT
STATENVILLE. A RIVER FLOODING WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES AND HILDRETH.

ONSHORE FLOW AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
COAST WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ROUGH SURF AND
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG SEVERAL RIVERS
IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.
719. VR46L
Quoting bappit:

Why do you think all those people and corporations funding Donors Trust want to preserve their anonymity?


I don't know . But I see there is a lot people trying to get rich on both sides. Be it oil , green builds , Green energy, Fossel fuels, Bicycles and cars .But that is just a cynical opinion . But anyway I was saying plates always moved what has that to do GW or the Donors Trust !
720. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:


My rain was kind of a bust ...only rained some in the morning ...bummed me out ...

Until my son called ...he coaches basesball at Lamar University and their game got rained out ...so he drove in and met me for Sushi! I just so love my kids!
Sandra has probibly peaked..
722. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Hey VR46L..
Last year, here in Pensacola on June 9, we broke a record set in 1908..
We picked up 12.71" of rain in a 24hr period..
That was miserable..


Yeah I remember the reports and know a couple of folk in that area the stories they told me were something else !
for My city Tuesday.....A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind 11 to 17 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
724. VR46L
Quoting txjac:


My rain was kind of a bust ...only rained some in the morning ...bummed me out ...

Until my son called ...he coaches basesball at Lamar University and their game got rained out ...so he drove in and met me for Sushi! I just so love my kids!


So sorry to hear about the lack of rain !

But great that your son treated you to great dinner

MIMIC of Ex-Saturn sucking in tropical moisture.
Quoting barbamz:

MIMIC of Ex-Saturn sucking in tropical moisture.
Quoting barbamz:

MIMIC of Ex-Saturn sucking in tropical moisture.
..looks like Europe had better keep a good eye on this storm
found this on the web....Largo, FL climate is hot during summer when temperatures tend to be in the 80's and mild during winter when temperatures tend to be in the 60's.

The warmest month of the year is July with an average maximum temperature of 90.20 degrees Fahrenheit, while the coldest month of the year is January with an average minimum temperature of 54.00 degrees Fahrenheit.

Temperature variations between night and day tend to be fairly limited during summer with a difference that can reach 13 degrees Fahrenheit, and fairly limited during winter with an average difference of 15 degrees Fahrenheit.

The annual average precipitation at Largo is 49.58 Inches. Summer months tend to be wetter than winter months. The wettest month of the year is August with an average rainfall of 8.26 Inches.
728. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
..looks like Europe had better keep a good eye on this storm


Actually the gfs predicts that it stalls in the mid atlantic and dissipates before land . a bigger concern is a storm to come down from Iceland It looks horrible !

729. txjac
Quoting VR46L:


So sorry to hear about the lack of rain !

But great that your son treated you to great dinner


My son lives in the same general area of AtHomeInTexas. When I go down to see a game I am hoping to meet her
latest gfs

731. VR46L
Quoting txjac:


My son lives in the same general area of AtHomeInTexas. When I go down to see a game I am hoping to meet her


I haven't seen her on much since the summer figured she is a summer blogger . She used to post lots of the model runs and Maps . Seems like a nice lady.
Quoting LargoFl:
..looks like Europe had better keep a good eye on this storm


As much as I can see Plaza will get it, but it doesn't look very harmful ...
Link
latest gfs european incomplete still updating posting whats in so far takes awhile to complete

734. txjac
Quoting VR46L:


I haven't seen her on much since the summer figured she is a summer blogger . She used to post lots of the model runs and Maps . Seems like a nice lady.


She is awesome. I hope she agrees to meet
If the TWC is only naming Winter storms and the first day of spring is March 20, 2013, if the Euro scenario pans out, they wont be able to name it due it will be spring and not winter??
Quoting VR46L:


I haven't seen her on much since the summer figured she is a summer blogger . She used to post lots of the model runs and Maps . Seems like a nice lady.


"AtHome" said "Thank you" in post #13 of this blog, lol.
71 degrees for a high temp in #ATL today!!
It's still 72 at my house at 6:30 (used to be 5:30)
More rain a'comin' for me! Bad side is it erases the warm weather I enjoyed today, :(



And the more colorful NewsChannel5 radar:

Quoting ncstorm:
If the TWC is only naming Winter storms and the first day of spring is March 20, 2013, if the Euro scenario pans out, they wont be able to name it due it will be spring and not winter??

A winter storm does not literally mean it has to develop between December and March; that is just when a majority of systems develop.
For my area:

so far doesnt seem to be a serious weather event huh...
cold

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A winter storm does not literally mean it has to develop between December and March; that is just when a majority of systems develop.


maybe the TWC needs to do like the NHC and name specific dates like hurricane season as when naming winter storms begins and ends..and literally it does mean just that..winter is over on march 20..they officially stated they would start naming only Winter storms..would be interesting to see what happens if the Euro pans out..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A winter storm does not literally mean it has to develop between December and March; that is just when a majority of systems develop.


I have to say that I agree with that though
Quoting ncstorm:
If the TWC is only naming Winter storms and the first day of spring is March 20, 2013, if the Euro scenario pans out, they wont be able to name it due it will be spring and not winter??


If the NHC is naming tropical storms and a model pans out, and a storm forms on may 1st or december 1st, they won't be able to name it because it's offseason and not hurricane season?
GFS..looks like Tuesday for the east coast states..
Nearly a foot for Iron Mountain, WI
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


If the NHC is naming tropical storms and a model pans out, and a storm forms on may 1st or december 1st, they won't be able to name it because it's offseason and not hurricane season?


ahhh..true..
Quoting ncstorm:


maybe the TWC needs to do like the NHC and name specific dates like hurricane season as when naming winter storms begins and ends..and literally it does mean just that..winter is over on march 20..they officially stated they would start naming only Winter storms..would be interesting to see what happens if the Euro pans out..

Well the NHC names storms even if the start before June 1st or after November 30th. A defined winter storm season is something I wouldn't mind, but winter storms(storms that contain rain/snow/sleet/ice) can form outside of winter. I guess GA just said something similar to this.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well the NHC names storms even if the start before June 1st or after November 30th. A defined winter storm season is something I wouldn't mind, but winter storms(storms that contain rain/snow/sleet/ice) can form outside of winter. I guess GA just said something similar to this.


chaser I like your new "minimum risk" but it's a little hard to read..
Quoting ncstorm:


ahhh..true..


What happens if there is a tropical and winter storm at the same time?
Quoting allahgore:


What happens if there is a tropical and winter storm at the same time?


is something supposed to happen?
758. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


ahhh..true..


If I remember right 2 storms formed off season last year


Quoting VR46L:


If I remember right 2 storms formed off season last year




you're right
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


chaser I like your new "minimum risk" but i's a little hard to read..

Thanks, I guess I could make it brighter.
*Revised image uploaded and approved*

Quoting allahgore:


What happens if there is a tropical and winter storm at the same time?

Then there is a tropical storm and a winter storm occurring at the same time. Life goes on as normal, besides the people to be impacted?
761. VR46L
Quoting allahgore:


What happens if there is a tropical and winter storm at the same time?


Could happen , 2005 season there was a storm that went into Jan. but sure only the hurricane TS storm names are offical... only weather channel and its subsidiarity companies called winter storms the list the weather channel issued .
Quoting VR46L:


If I remember right 2 storms formed off season last year



Yup, Alberto and Beryl. Beryl made landfall as a 70mph TS near Jacksonville, FL.
For those of you who can't read the print, the yellow is where TWC thinks there will be 2" of rain, locally 3". That includes my area, but, I don't even think we will scratch 1". I am looking to get 1/2", tops.

6.7 QUAKE STRIKES NEAR PORT MORESBY PNG

CONFIRMED INTENSITY!
Made it to 74.9 here today, the forecast was 72, they since switched it to 74
Right now it is 74.7...

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 3:53 PM PDT on March 10, 2013
Clear
74 °F
Clear
Humidity: 16%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.12 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 8.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft
Quoting ncstorm:
If the TWC is only naming Winter storms and the first day of spring is March 20, 2013, if the Euro scenario pans out, they wont be able to name it due it will be spring and not winter??


There are winter storms that occur in April for parts of the United States of America.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Made it to 74.9 here today, the forecast was 72, they since switched it to 74
Right now it is 74.7...

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 3:53 PM PDT on March 10, 2013
Clear
74 °F
Clear
Humidity: 16%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.12 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 8.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft


you have a nice warming trend coming up this week while us in the east freeze

769. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:
Made it to 74.9 here today, the forecast was 72, they since switched it to 74
Right now it is 74.7...

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 3:53 PM PDT on March 10, 2013
Clear
74 °F
Clear
Humidity: 16%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.12 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 8.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft



So Jealous.......

33° and snow enroute ,only a degree to go and it will stick YUK!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


you have a nice warming trend coming up this week while us in the east freeze


Well, the mid 60s for a day was nice. Rain will be rolling in tonight though. I was able to do a lot of outdoor things today that I won't be able to do comfortably for a while.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


you have a nice warming trend coming up this week while us in the east freeze



Borderline Hot is you ask me.
Some interesting info about the names for this year.

Andrea was replaced by Allison '01 after the storm sat there filling up TX like a bath tub
Allison was a cat 1 in 1995 that struck near Apalachicola, FL. 4 tornadoes with it reported.

Felix was a scary call for NE in 2007 (below) so was in 1995... now replaced by Fernand


Luis in 1995 was deadly...replaced with Lorenzo for 2001, to be seen again in 2013


Opal 1995, now Olga, struck Pensacola, FL killing 63 people. Unusual pressure at 916 for a cat 4.


Roxanne 1995 (now Rebekah)


Iris 2001 (now Ingrid).. The I storm killed 50 people




Quoting wxchaser97:

Well, the mid 60s for a day was nice. Rain will be rolling in tonight though. I was able to do a lot of outdoor things today that I won't be able to do comfortably for a while.

that one looks much better
Today in History... Topic: earthquakes

In 1933, a 6.4 hits Long Beach, CA at 5:55 PM PDT or 8:55 PM EDT killing 120 people

IN 2011, the warning 7.3 quake (foreshock) occurred on March 9. For the extremely catastrophic quake/pacitic wide tsunami that would happen at 1:46 AM EDT... About 6 hours from now in Japan.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Just like Tom Thumbs blues

Another time another place.
"Fever Tree"( imitation situation,a long, long time ago:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xjl-4du-AyI

Thanks for digging that one out and putting it up Ped as its significant to the blog post.
This line says more than it means, or means a lot more than it says, from the Dylan link:-

"you must pick one or the other though neither of them are to be what they claim."

Then again?

you can be fooled all of the time by some of them and you can be fooled some of the time by all of them but you cant be fooled all of the time by all of them.

I think somebody a while ago said something a bit like that!
It looks like Sandra may be weakening.
Quoting Ameister12:
It looks like Sandra may be weakening.


yes it is...the eyewall or the whole core is becoming thinner and warmer.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Some interesting info about the names for this year.

Andrea was replaced by Allison '01 after the storm sat there filling up TX like a bath tub
Allison was a cat 1 in 1995 that struck near Apalachicola, FL. 4 tornadoes with it reported.

Felix was a scary call for NE in 2007 (below) so was in 1995... now replaced by Fernand


Luis in 1995 was deadly...replaced with Lorenzo for 2001, to be seen again in 2013


Opal 1995, now Olga, struck Pensacola, FL killing 63 people. Unusual pressure at 916 for a cat 4.


Roxanne 1995 (now Rebekah)


Iris 2001 (now Ingrid).. The I storm killed 50 people






Iris.... I.... Will the curse of the I strike again?
Quoting PlazaRed:

Another time another place.
"Fever Tree"( imitation situation,a long, long time ago:-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xjl-4du-AyI

Thanks for digging that one out and putting it up Ped as its significant to the blog post.
This line says more than it means, or means a lot more than it says, from the Dylan link:-

"you must pick one or the other though neither of them are to be what they claim."

Then again?

you can be fooled all of the time by some of them and you can be fooled some of the time by all of them but you cant be fooled all of the time by all of them.

I think somebody a while ago said something a bit like that!


Interesting song that one. Can't say I ever heard that one before. Don't listen to radio much as my car radio is broken and I forget to turn the one in the house on. "Silence is Golden."
Quoting Doppler22:


Iris.... I.... Will the curse of the I strike again?


well, by looking at the historical "I" name for the rotating list to be used in 2013... I doubt... IMO
Ingrid didn't do a great job there in 2007
curse could continue as many here say.
I got post 777, does that mean that I get to place my chip in the draw for the almost free holiday in an undisclosed, earthquake prone, hurricane zone to be announced shortly, for the up and coming 2013 season?
Or does it just mean that I had pot luck!
I have to bale out now but I'll leave with the knowledge from the weather wench on TVE Europe that after Wednesday , we shall see the sun again after only about 20 inches of rain in the recent days.
Night Night all.
See Life is Good again.....
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Today in History... Topic: earthquakes

In 1933, a 6.4 hits Long Beach, CA at 5:55 PM PDT or 8:55 PM EDT killing 120 people

IN 2011, the warning 7.3 quake (foreshock) occurred on March 9. For the extremely catastrophic quake/pacitic wide tsunami that would happen at 1:46 AM EDT... About 6 hours from now in Japan.


but even in earthquake prone places....you'd not think a 7.3 was a foreshock...you'd surely think that was 'the big one' and be expecting aftershocks after that...not something so much worse!
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


but even in earthquake prone places....you'd not think a 7.3 was a foreshock...you'd surely think that was 'the big one' and be expecting aftershocks after that...not something so much worse!


although the 7.3 occurred 2 days before this monster, I consider it being a foreshock.

If not then 2 separate events..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well, by looking at the historical "I" name for the rotating list to be used in 2013... I doubt... IMO

curse could continue as many here say.

Is is infamous to me because I got directly hit from Isabel and Irene and indirectly hit from Ivan
Quoting Doppler22:

Is is infamous to me because I got directly hit from Isabel and Irene and indirectly hit from Ivan


Ivan...hard to believe the loop it did..but yes you were.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well, by looking at the historical "I" name for the rotating list to be used in 2013... I doubt... IMO

curse could continue as many here say.


Ivan,September2-24, 2004..
The one "I" storm I'll never forget..
Made landfall at night..
I was 41 miles away from the center..
I could go on but not here now..








Quoting txjac:


My rain was kind of a bust ...only rained some in the morning ...bummed me out ...

Until my son called ...he coaches basesball at Lamar University and their game got rained out ...so he drove in and met me for Sushi! I just so love my kids!


I live in the Golden Triangle too
This upcoming naming list has a history of deadly cyclones; many are strong as well.

22 fatalities/$2.6 billion in 1983
Alicia - 115 mph

147 fatalities/$10.7 billion in 1989
Hugo - 160 mph

158 fatalities/$10.2 billion in 1995
Opal - 150 mph

105 fatalities/$7.1 billion in 2001
Michelle - 140 mph

423 fatalities/$3 billion in 2007
Dean and Felix - 175 mph

Just a random fact..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This upcoming naming list has a history of deadly cyclones; many are strong as well.

22 fatalities/$2.6 billion in 1983
Alicia - 115 mph

147 fatalities/$10.7 billion in 1989
Hugo - 160 mph

158 fatalities/$10.2 billion in 1995
Opal - 150 mph

105 fatalities/$7.1 billion in 2001
Michelle - 140 mph

423 fatalities/$3 billion in 2007
Dean and Felix - 175 mph

Just a random fact..

And Michelle wasnt retired? hmmm

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Ivan...hard to believe the loop it did..but yes you were.


Isabel was the worst for me
Quoting pcola57:


Ivan,September2-24, 2004..
The one "I" storm I'll never forget..
Made landfall at night..
I was 41 miles away from the center..
I could go on but not here now..


Just as said in Kung Fu panda..."It was a painful mind-destroying thing", but would you mind telling us a little of your story when that happened...? maybe somewhere else then... I would like to know..
Quoting Doppler22:

And Michelle wasnt retired? hmmm



Isabel was the worst for me


this is how I know that storm like...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Just as said in Kung Fu panda..."It was a painful mind-destroying thing", but would you mind telling us a little of your story when that happened...? maybe somewhere else then... I would like to know..


I wrote a blog post about my experience..
I erased it many moons ago..
I may write it up again..
Quoting Doppler22:

And Michelle wasnt retired? hmmm

It was.
Quoting pcola57:


I wrote a blog post about my experience..
I erased it many moons ago..
I may write it up again..


well, now you have more time...days are longer. lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was.

I got Meliisa mixed up with Michelle... sorry

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


this is how I know that storm like...

Yeah, she was a nasty little storm
Quoting Doppler22:

I got Meliisa mixed up with Michelle... sorry


Yeah, she was a nasty little storm


Doppler...you got me confused too!!!
Quoting allahgore:


What happens if there is a tropical and winter storm at the same time?

I thought that was Sandy. Then there was the unnamed storm of 1991.

"The 1991 Perfect Storm, also known as the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991, and (especially in the years immediately after it took place) as The No-Name Storm, was a nor'easter that absorbed Hurricane Grace and ultimately evolved back into a small unnamed hurricane late in its life cycle."

I bet there have been edit wars over that sentence in Wikipedia. The article link is for "the unnamed storm of 1991" and the current title shown on the web page is "1991 Perfect Storm". Wonder if the article was ever called "Grace".

The article also notes that:

"On November 1, while the storm was moving in a counter-clockwise loop, a tropical cyclone had been identified at the center of the larger low.[8] (Although these conditions are rare, Hurricane Karl during 1980 formed within a larger non-tropical weather system.)"
I enjoyed the longer day today... but indoors, too cold to go out
um..weather.com comes with some random stuff.

Which state has the 'most fat' people? I don't see the relation with weather.

OK, OH, TN, KY, AL, LA, AR, MS and WA are above 30%... some exercise there..no offense

CT is the 4th lowest one...yay!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
um..weather.com comes with some random stuff.

Which state has the 'most fat' people? I don't see the relation with weather.

OK, OH, TN, KY, AL, LA, AR, MS and WA are above 30%... some exercise there..no offense

CT is the 4th lowest one...yay!


Did you look at the "Saddest State" survey Max?
Quoting pcola57:


Did you look at the "happiest State" survey Max?


:(
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


:(


Mee too.. :(
I am really beginning to believe that the weather channel is seriously mistaken in their precipitation forecast for tonight. More and more dry air is coming into the system, killing off the thunderstorms and rain bands.

I am going to be lucky to get a 1/4" out of this down from what I thought was 1/2" and much less than the 2-3" TWC was calling for.

Blog seems to be a little slow tonight.
Quoting Astrometeor:
I am really beginning to believe that the weather channel is seriously mistaken in their precipitation forecast for tonight. More and more dry air is coming into the system, killing off the thunderstorms and rain bands.

I am going to be lucky to get a 1/4" out of this down from what I thought was 1/2" and much less than the 2-3" TWC was calling for.

Blog seems to be a little slow tonight.


bring something up...
Also, thanks to TWC for showing me this, the CDC says that flu activity is local.
.....
BS!

So many people are sick with the flu the past week, some schools in the area have been closed.

When they called it Widespread earlier in the season, no one was getting sick. The CDC needs to get a clue on the flu.
Quoting Astrometeor:
I am really beginning to believe that the weather channel is seriously mistaken in their precipitation forecast for tonight. More and more dry air is coming into the system, killing off the thunderstorms and rain bands.

I am going to be lucky to get a 1/4" out of this down from what I thought was 1/2" and much less than the 2-3" TWC was calling for.

Blog seems to be a little slow tonight.


what does your NWS call for? I see you are under a wind advisory
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what does your NWS call for? I see you are under a wind advisory>


They don't do rain forecasts usually. Unless there are back-to-back systems to say, "additional rainfall of ___is expected." Nothing on their page as far as I can see on this one.
anyone got the criteria from TWC for naming winter storms..do they have to produce frozen precipitation or all these just cold core systems that could affect large populations?
#46 Whoo-Hoo..... lol I wouldn't have guessed that. A lot of the western states were on the good side of that survey.
Quoting ncstorm:
anyone got the criteria from TWC for naming winter storms..do they have to produce frozen precipitation or all these just cold core systems?


I look that up, fourth thing down is MAweatherboy1's blog post on why TWC is wrong, lol.
Quoting ncstorm:
anyone got the criteria from TWC for naming winter storms..do they have to produce frozen precipitation or all these just cold core systems that could affect large populations?


I think it is at their whim....
Quoting ncstorm:
anyone got the criteria from TWC for naming winter storms..do they have to produce frozen precipitation or all these just cold core systems that could affect large populations?

* Has to be within 3 days of significant impact to be named.

* Significant disruption to travel, both air and road.

* Potential for life-threatening conditions from wind, ice, snow, or cold.
Pan Starrs surprised me. Looked like jet contrail with bright point. It was big at max. Almost missed it because tail got shorter before dark and gone in 15 minutes. Looking forward to watching it this week now that I know how it acts.
hopefully they could come up with a more solid, a more formal criteria...idk.

It was the first year to introduce this, give them some credit
thanks Everyone!

I see your last bullet point TA, that answers my question
calling for 3/4" of rain, good to clean up salty roads
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


sir...Cyclone Narelle reached category 4 in SSHS
Circumnavigated western Australia
Touche.You make me feel old with that sir though.lol
Quoting allancalderini:
Touche.You make me feel old with that sir though.lol


ok little guy... (better?) lol.
nice couple picture there btw...
823. wxmod
Mega coal and oil fumes from China, India, etc drifting thousands of miles into the Pacific. MODIS satellite photo.
I was not prepared to take photo of Pan-Starrs at max but from internet this is what I saw. Much bigger than I thought. But higher in sky and earlier dusk time. Time is critical when looking for this.

Quoting centex:
I was not prepared to take photo of Pan-Starrs at max but from internet this is what I saw. Much bigger than I thought. But higher in sky and earlier dusk time. Time is critical when looking for this.



Is that a real picture or one of those computer-simulated ones telling you where to look? Because the tail is way too angled towards the equator, it should be much more closer to pointing up than what that picture suggests.
Quoting allancalderini:
At least she reached cat 4 before weakening I might be wrong but with the Exception of Sandra all the other storms in Australian season had been very week.


Australian 2012-13 Cyclone season so far...


SE Indian Ocean
TC Narelle reached Cat 4 on both BOM and SSHWS
TC Rusty reached Cat 4 on BOM scale and Cat 2 on SSHWS.

SW Pacific Cyclone season so far...

In the SW Pacific
TC Evan reached Cat 4 on both BOM and SSHWS
TC Freda reached Cat 4 on BOM scale and Cat 3 on SSHWS
TC Garry reached Cat 3 on BOM scale and Cat 1 on SSHWS
Now we have TC Sandra which looks to have peaked as a Cat 4 on the BOM scale and a Cat 3 on the SSHWS.

One thing is for certain, we've had more major Hurricanes than the ATL.
Quoting AussieStorm:

SE Indian Ocean
TC Narelle reached Cat 4 on both BOM and SSHWS
TC Rusty reached Cat 4 on BOM scale and Cat 2 on SSHWS.

In the SW Pacific
TC Evan reached Cat 4 on both BOM and SSHWS
TC Freda reached Cat 4 on BOM scale and Cat 3 on SSHWS
TC Garry reached Cat 3 on BOM scale and Cat 1 on SSHWS
Now we have TC Sandra which looks to have peaked as a Cat 4 on the BOM scale and a Cat 3 on the SSHWS.

One thing is for certain, we've had more major Hurricanes than the ATL.


someone feels happy and confident about it... right Aussie?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


someone fells happy and confident about it... right Aussie?


fells? coughisaaccoughdiseasecoughstrikescoughagain.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Is that a real picture or one of those computer-simulated ones telling you where to look? Because the tail is way too angled towards the equator, it should be much more closer to pointing up than what that picture suggests.
Not sure but don't think so, just wanted to post pic that looked like what I saw. When first spotted we thought jet contrail so surprised me. It was bigger/longer than I thought it would be. I bet many missed it tonight because didn't last long and gone before dark.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


someone fells happy and confident about it... right Aussie?

Just pointing it out. lol

I hope it's not a precursor to the upcoming ATL season. Your ocean isn't as big as ours. lol
Quoting Astrometeor:


fells? coughisaaccoughdiseasecoughstrikescoughagain.


darn! Iseehimloomingaround...lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

* Has to be within 3 days of significant impact to be named.

* Significant disruption to travel, both air and road.

* Potential for life-threatening conditions from wind, ice, snow, or cold.
Thanks for the clarification.
Until they come up with some parameters for what "signifigant" means it is at their whim. The last "definition" is ridiculous alltogether, as any weather event winter-spring-summer or fall has potential for life threatening conditions. Fog has the potential to be life threatening. Rip currents kill many. etc. It's just a marketing ploy to get through winter and the slow time in weather. There's more dramatic events with cyclones or tornadic conditions. TOOR:CON good...winter names silly and bad(as currently loosely defined).
.
.
I continue to think they'll refine it more scientifically and more rigourously so they're not declaring every front a "winter storm" or maybe they'll just drop it alltogether.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just pointing it out. lol

I hope it's not a precursor to the upcoming ATL season. Your ocean isn't as big as ours. lol


well, originally I have the Pacific and Atlantic...been on both too.
It was tilted to left like photo I posted. Maybe a little more up. Tail starts long and shortens as time passes before dark. Later in week will be a little higher in sky and more post sunset. While big it was not striking because looked like short (big comet) jet contrail. Watching it change and super bright point made it very interesting to watch. We just had front pass so dry and clear skies made viewing real good.
Quoting centex:
It was tilted to left like photo I posted. Maybe a little more up. Tail starts long and shortens as time passes before dark. Later in week will be a little higher in sky and more post sunset. While big it was not striking because looked like short (big comet) jet contrail. Watching it change and super bright point made it very interesting to watch. We just had front pass so dry and clear skies made viewing real good.

Also being away from city light pollution also helps.
The tilt is more left today. 3/10. Apparently rise over time.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well, originally I have the Pacific and Atlantic...been on both too.

I've been in the Atlantic and of course the Pacific, one day I'll touch the Indian ocean.
833 It is just a marketing gimmick, so discussing their criteria is kind of silly.
Well, I bid adieu tonight blog to everyone BUT TropicalAnalystwx13 and wxchaser97, who have decided to take one grammar mistake of mine, which I corrected immediately, to an extreme level of trollish attacks and not-very-funny rubbing in that I made a mistake.
While I correct others in good faith and know when not to correct others, those two took it way too far, and I am too tired after coming off an illness to put up with their idiot nonsense.

I like those two very much, but really, there is a limit to which one can take.

Good night blog.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY FOUR (17F)
12:00 PM FST March 11 2013
=========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Sandra (930 hPa) located at 17.1S 161.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 5 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
130 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection persistent and overall organization remains good in past 24 hours. Eye cloud filled but still discernible. Outflow good especially to the south. System lies in a low sheared environment with moderate upper divergence. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. SANDRA tracking along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge positioned to the east.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye and LG surrounding yeilding DT=5.5, PT=5.0, MET=5.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Most models agree on a south southeast movement with gradual weakening after 18-24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.2S 162.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.6S 163.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.9S 164.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Quoting Astrometeor:
Well, I bid adieu tonight blog to everyone BUT TropicalAnalystwx13 and wxchaser97, who have decided to take one grammar mistake of mine, which I corrected immediately, to an extreme level of trollish attacks and not-very-funny rubbing in that I made a mistake.
While I correct others in good faith and know when not to correct others, those two took it way too far, and I am too tired after coming off an illness to put up with their idiot nonsense.

I like those two very much, but really, there is a limit to which one can take.

Good night blog.

Lol, stop being dramatic, you know we're only picking.
2 years ago today, the 11th of March 2011. This happened......










EQ Stregth: 9.0
Depth: 32km
Duration: 6 Minutes
Peak Acceleration: 2.99g
Casualties: 15,881 deaths
6,142 injured,
2,668 people missing.
Save the drama until hurricane season.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Well, I bid adieu tonight blog to everyone BUT TropicalAnalystwx13 and wxchaser97, who have decided to take one grammar mistake of mine, which I corrected immediately, to an extreme level of trollish attacks and not-very-funny rubbing in that I made a mistake.
While I correct others in good faith and know when not to correct others, those two took it way too far, and I am too tired after coming off an illness to put up with their idiot nonsense.

I like those two very much, but really, there is a limit to which one can take.

Good night blog.


This ain't the place to whine about such irrelevant bearings.


Another cold period coming up next week, according to the ECMWF.


Live mobile stream from I35 in Iowa tonight. Over 100 cars in ditch over last 65 miles, including a state trooper and jack-knifed semi-truck.
Iowa I35 north bound mobile live video
In response to TropicalAnalystwx13, if this is what you mean by dramatic, then no, I will not stop.

Dramatic, adjective: highly effective, striking. The silence following his impassioned speech was dramatic.

Please note Tropical, I used all three correct versions of to,two,too in my rant above. I do not need others rubbing in one careless mistake on my part into me. You should know when to draw the line on "nit-picking" as you call it.

End of this now, I am finishing up my homework, and then shall be promptly off to bed.
Anyone found Pan-stars NA photo's (programming defect changing spelling)? I'm starting to think press fooled photogs and they all missed it.
...anyways.

As AussieStorm alluded to, today (in UTC time) marks the 2 year anniversay of the 9.0 mega thrust earthquake that devastated so much of Japan. The earthquake killed 15,881, injured 6,142, and have left over 2,500 people missing to this date. It produced a huge tsunami (133ft) that prompted warnings from the epicenter to the United States.

Heck of a wind storm for northwestern Spain @ 240 Hours

60+ KTS

This right except length of tail and not say look early. Can't be too early for this one. They also don't say tail will shorten over time and end with fading point. Who forgot to mention that? Just surprised how press released expert data is so lacking.



nice looking system increasing energy along front now

Just for throwback purposes here is the comment section in the blog when the blog realized the earthquake happened.

Funny thing is everyone was freaking out over a "90L" :p
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


ok little guy... (better?) lol.
nice couple picture there btw...
Yeah better lol I don`t want to remember that I am almost 18 at least id going to be my first year vote for president. btw for the tenth time she is not my girl she is a really good friend.lol.Someone would kill me if she was my girl.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Australian 2012-13 Cyclone season so far...


SE Indian Ocean
TC Narelle reached Cat 4 on both BOM and SSHWS
TC Rusty reached Cat 4 on BOM scale and Cat 2 on SSHWS.

SW Pacific Cyclone season so far...

In the SW Pacific
TC Evan reached Cat 4 on both BOM and SSHWS
TC Freda reached Cat 4 on BOM scale and Cat 3 on SSHWS
TC Garry reached Cat 3 on BOM scale and Cat 1 on SSHWS
Now we have TC Sandra which looks to have peaked as a Cat 4 on the BOM scale and a Cat 3 on the SSHWS.

One thing is for certain, we've had more major Hurricanes than the ATL.
Thanks Aussie.
Quoting Astrometeor:
In response to TropicalAnalystwx13, if this is what you mean by dramatic, then no, I will not stop.

Dramatic, adjective: highly effective, striking. The silence following his impassioned speech was dramatic.

Please note Tropical, I used all three correct versions of to,two,too in my rant above. I do not need others rubbing in one careless mistake on my part into me. You should know when to draw the line on "nit-picking" as you call it.

End of this now, I am finishing up my homework, and then shall be promptly off to bed.


Been trying to get a glimpse of pan-STARRS for a day or so now, the last two days as usual the entire sky was cloud free EXCEPT towards the west. Hoping for more luck tomorrow.
I think I had a problem with this page everytime I update or pass to another page in this blog it moves down.Does is my computer or the webpage?
Sandra has outwitted me & gained 10kts.. The AdjT still varying wildly..could go either way, or stay this strength a while.

It's alluded TRMM for 2 1/2 days now..

Quoting allancalderini:
I think I had a problem with this page everytime I update or pass to another page in this blog it moves down.Does is my computer or the webpage?


That is happening to everyone. You can take the top off the end of the URL and that helps till you comment again.
Quoting allancalderini:
Yeah better lol I don`t want to remember that I am almost 18 at least id going to be my first year vote for president. btw for the tenth time she is not my girl she is a really good friend.lol.Someone would kill me if she was my girl.Thanks Aussie.


Your welcome.
Quoting Skyepony:
Sandra has outwitted me & gained 10kts.. The AdjT still varying wildly..could go either way, or stay this strength a while.

It's alluded TRMM for 2 1/2 days now..



I think she's tanking. Dvorak is still being fooled by cold cloud tops that are actually just cirrus with no meat beneath them, especially on the north side. Microwave shows dry air has completely eroded the northern eyewall.
Quoting Levi32:


I think she's tanking. Dvorak is still being fooled by cold cloud tops that are actually just cirrus with no meat beneath them, especially on the north side. Microwave shows dry air has completely eroded the northern eyewall.

True that....


But look how fat the southern eye-wall is.


jsl indicates weakening seems to be holding on with a little impulse of energy
Time to Bail - See You All When the Sun Returns to This Side - Stay Safe - Sleep Well - Later....
Did anyone else see comet? It was amazing. Experts didn't tell us what we needed to know. Meaning long tail at earliest point. Drove to viewing spot but not sure saw it at it's best. The tail shortens over time. It was gone before darkness. Why can't experts help us? Are they lazy or press lazy?
later ped
Quoting centex:
Did anyone else see comet? It was amazing. Experts didn't tell us what we needed to know. Meaning long tail at earliest point. Drove to viewing spot but not sure saw it at it's best. The tail shortens over time. It was gone before darkness. Why can't experts help us? Are they lazy or press lazy?

I think the press is lazy. They only give basic info, if you want to know more you find that info for yourself. Here in Sydney, not one news channel has mentioned it. I saw it last week, very cool. I also saw another higher up, called Comet Lemmom.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I think the press is lazy. They only give basic info, if you want to know more you find that info for yourself. Here in Sydney, not one news channel has mentioned it. I saw it last week, very cool. I also saw another higher up, called Comet Lemmom.
How long was it? That is what surprised me. You know how jet contrails cross the half sky, I saw about 1/10 sky system. It was so big passengers in car did not believe me. Told me it must be jet contrail. Not until they watched tail get smaller and fade into point of light realize what they saw.
Quoting centex:
How long was it? That is what surprised me. You know how jet contrails cross the half sky, I saw about 1/10 sky system. It was so big passengers in car did not believe me. Told me it must be jet contrail. Not until they watched tail get smaller and fade into point of light realize what they saw.


When I saw it, it was pretty long but then the clouds came over and for the next 3 days it remained cloudy.
Quoting AussieStorm:


When I saw it, it was pretty long but then the clouds came over and for the next 3 days it remained cloudy.
Thanks will help NA viewers to know to look for long comet (early viewing). They may not believe it when first spotted.
Am I only one on site to see comet in NA? If late you may have missed it.
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Rain on the way.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A moist southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will cause rain to
develop over Southwestern Ontario and in areas near Lake Huron early
Monday. The rain will then slowly push eastward to reach South
Central Ontario, including the Toronto area in the late afternoon.

The most significant rainfall amounts are expected over Southwestern
Ontario and in areas near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay where general
amounts of 15 to 25 mm are forecast. These areas will be monitored
for potential rainfall warnings. The heaviest rain is expected to
fall Monday afternoon and early evening.

Further east, from Hamilton and Toronto northeastward through
Haliburton to Pembroke, lesser rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 mm are
currently expected, with most of the rain falling Monday evening.

Environment Canada will continue to monitor this situation closely.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

End


Finished my local forecast blog for this week, not too much exciting weather happening for now. Goodnight everyone.
Quoting PedleyCA:


That is happening to everyone. You can take the top off the end of the URL and that helps till you comment again.
Quoting PedleyCA:


That is happening to everyone. You can take the top off the end of the URL and that helps till you comment again.
Thanks a lot mate.I thought it was only mine.
Good water temps, especially with some air temps around the low 80's on Wednesday. Beach weather all this week!

Quoting Levi32:


I think she's tanking. Dvorak is still being fooled by cold cloud tops that are actually just cirrus with no meat beneath them, especially on the north side. Microwave shows dry air has completely eroded the northern eyewall.

To prove my point and prove me wrong. Point me to article saying comet will be long early and fading point at dusk? What did they think we needed to know?
This hurricane season is going to be difficult to forecast with great accuracy (which I guess is to be expected regardless). Reason being is there are a lot of factors that do not point to a well-above or well-below average season; they're just near normal. I'm on Spring break this week and look to get a blog out about my thoughts.
Neutral ENSO pattern for this upcoming season? still too early imo...
Hmmmmmmmm!!!!!

from Fiji mets




on one map Sandra is a cat 4 on the 2nd map Sandra is a cat 3. hmmmmmmm
Comet is main event but trop blog. I recently met local nws mets and they have changed long term forecast because of global warming. Apparently the experts are ahead of this blog. It is so funny that that jeff preaches it but we have some crazy right folks still posting 20 year old crap. They need to leave, just because you like weather does not mean you can support Nazi stuff.
Attempt to conjure up Godwin's law.
Quoting bappit:
Attempt to conjure up Godwin's law.
It's a law to not ping crazy's? Not a law I want to follow. Think before you react. Remember this is a tropic blog and while we allow science I'm not sure we allow philosophy, but I will give you a break.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST March 11 2013
==========================================

An active monsoon trough is located over the northern coast and a weak Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria near Nhulunbuy. The low is expected to develop over the next couple of days and move east. The low is expected to move out of the Northern Region early on Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Very Low
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hmmmmmmmm!!!!!

from Fiji mets




on one map Sandra is a cat 4 on the 2nd map Sandra is a cat 3. hmmmmmmm


Surface map just did not update yet when you posted it.
Dvorak still holding at 5.9 931.8mb for Sandra.
Brazil~ A heavy storm that began Saturday afternoon killed two people and caused landslides, flooding and traffic jams in Sao Paulo, the authorities in Brazil's largest city reported Sunday. A 14-year-old girl was swept away by the current as runoff washed along Rua Vergueiro, which links the central Avenida Paulista with the southern part of the city, and a 32-year-old man who tried to help her was also swept away by the floodwaters, the Civil Defense authorities said. The bodies of the pair, who drowned, were recovered Sunday morning by local firefighters in the Liberdade neighborhood some distance from where the victims were last seen. The Military Police reported that several people required aid from Civil Defense, the Fire Department and police along the heavily traveled street. The Traffic Engineering Company, or CET, said that 132 stoplights were damaged and 15 trees fell over, some of them crushing nearby cars. more here

Quoting centex:
Global warming equals man. I'm planting couple weeks early and not because of far right extreme crazy people. Why are they on this blog?? That is what I can't figure. Looks like mainly republicans but can't figure why republicans like climate change. Maybe why not winning nowadays. Just worried republicans will ruin my retirement. Screw the troops and old people, why is anyone a republican? Do you hate troops and your parent's? Your a sad F....


What?
Am I the only one that would like to see a hyperactive year (ACE wise) globally for the tropics? Storm tracks and all that nonsense are completely irrelevant to me, I just want to see the tropics behave as they should. Granted, I haven't looked at a global ACE map in a couple of years, but last I heard, we were in an overall downward spiral in that regard, one that started around 2007.
858 allancalderini: I think I had a problem with this page everytime I update or pass to another page in this blog it moves down.Does is my computer or the webpage?

More than a few people have mentioned the page turn / refresh "start at the bottom" problem.
It's this blog. Used Firefox, so it isn't a browser issue. (WU is optimized for Firefox)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY FOUR (17F)
18:00 PM FST March 11 2013
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Sandra (935 hPa) located at 17.6S 161.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northern semi-circle
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Area of deep convection has decreased in past 24 hours. Overall organization remains good. Eye becoming cloud filled but still discernible in visible in past 3 hours. Outflow good especially to the south. System lies in a low to moderate sheared environment with moderate upper divergence. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. SANDRA is tracking along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge positioned to the east.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with LG eye and B surround yielding DT=5.0, PT and MET agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Most models agree on a south southeast movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.8S 162.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.2S 162.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 23.6S 163.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Am I the only one that would like to see a hyperactive year (ACE wise) globally for the tropics? Storm tracks and all that nonsense are completely irrelevant to me, I just want to see the tropics behave as they should. Granted, I haven't looked at a global ACE map in a couple of years, but last I heard, we were in an overall downward spiral in that regard, one that started around 2007.


Figures for N. Atl.

Year ACE
2005 250
2006 79
2007 72
2008 114
2009 51
2010 165
2011 126
2012 133

Figures for Pacific.

Year ACE
2005 96
2006 155
2007 53
2008 83
2009 125
2010 49
2011 118
2012 98
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 44 degrees here this morning and should warm up to about 60. It rained yesterday, so no recess today for the kids.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Belgium waffles, strawberries in syrup, bacon, yogurt and bagels with cream cheese and jelly.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 44 degrees here this morning and should warm up to about 60. It rained yesterday, so no recess today for the kids.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Belgium waffles, strawberries in syrup, bacon, yogurt and bagels with cream cheese and jelly.


A little heavy on the carbs there don't you think?
Quoting Guysgal:


A little heavy on the carbs there don't you think?


I guess it is. A sleepless night tends to make me want carbs I guess. I'll add some fresh fruit to keep it healthy. *G*

Just saw the radar, more rain coming. Sunday and Mondays here have been rain almost every week since Christmas.
900. MahFL
I saw Pan-Starrs for a couple of minutes last night. It was only visible through my 8x40 binos. I do though have mod to high light polution here in NE Florida. It looked pretty small too.
Good morning to all,evening Aussie. Mainly dry weather will prevail in the NE Caribbean for most of this week. The seas continue very rough so dont venture on the water in the beaches.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST MON MAR 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND A
WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION....DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS
SUBSIDENCE AIR BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. IN FACT 11/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT OF 1.21 INCHES
IN COMPARISON WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.50 FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. GFS LAYER PWAT SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 1
INCH OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED OVER LAND AREA AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS SO FAR
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOUR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY WITH AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS 11/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND FCST UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SUGGESTS MAINLY NORTH WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS BLW FL050
KFT...BCMG PREVAILING WESTERLIES ABV AND INCR W/HT WITH A PRESENT
WND MAX NR 70 KT AROUND FL350 KFT. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SEAS AND SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SEAS PEAKED OVERNIGHT AT BUOY 41043 AT JUST OVER 12 FEET.
A SECONDARY PEAK IN SWELL FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WERE EXTENDED 24 HOURS EACH. SEAS WILL DIMINISH AFTER TUESDAY BUT 7
FOOT OR GREATER SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 82 71 / 10 10 10 10
STT 83 70 82 71 / 10 20 10 20
7-day,tampa bay..Good Morning Everyone....
Good morning. Sorry if this link was already posted it is a story about anniversary of The Storm of the Century. Glad I wasn't here at the beach then. Have a good day.
Link
Everyone have a great Monday! Aussie, have a great Tuesday!
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning. Sorry if this link was already posted it is a story about anniversary of The Storm of the Century. Glad I wasn't here at the beach then. Have a good day.
Link


Speaking of Storm of The Century. Look at the Euro. Yikes!

12Z Euro



OZ Euro

Huge difference between the Euro & GFS right now. Really need to watch because it is possible a very powerful storm may set up along the East Coast of the US this time next week.
Looks like some more much need rain for FL tonight and tomorrow.

Euro ensembles agree with the operational Euro.
US NWS, Wilmington, NC

Exactly twenty years ago, two upper level disturbances were moving southeast toward an eventual merger along the Gulf Coast. The result would be one of the strongest and most devastating winter storms in United States history: The Superstorm of 1993. Read more about the "Storm of the Century"



Sigh, our so hard weather fate this week ;-)
Freezing temps are approaching my place in Mainz from the north.



View Photo Gallery



Spring Unsprung: Winter Returns to Germany with a Vengeance


Just last week, outdoor cafes were jammed as people in northern Europe sought to catch the first rays of warm, spring sunshine. Now, much of the region lies under a fresh blanket of snow with no relief in sight.

Germans might be extremely good at engineering. But they are even better at complaining about the weather. Which is why the first few days of March were such a welcome respite. Following the dreariest winter since records began over half a century ago -- and the accompanying long faces and grousing -- the sunny, 12-degree Celsius (55-degree Fahrenheit) weather seen last week was enough to guarantee jammed tables at outdoor cafes.

Now? Those same cafes, in northern Germany at least, are buried under up to 22 centimeters (nine inches) of snow, with temperatures in the coming days to remain stubbornly below freezing. The front is set to spread across the rest of the country on Monday and Tuesday, prematurely shuttering Bavarian beer gardens that opened their gates last week.

Even worse, despite spring being awaited this year with more anticipation than usual, the unseasonably cold weather is set to stick around at least through the end of the week. Temperatures in Berlin won't climb back up above freezing until the weekend at least, according to meteorologists.

Germany and its immediate neighbors, of course, aren't the only places where winter returned with a vengeance after early spring sunshine had raised hopes. Britain too experienced some unexpected snowfall this weekend, dashing initial hopes for a warm month of March.

Still, with Christmas weather having been a balmy 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) last year, perhaps the weather gods are trying to make amends. There is, after all, still a chance of a white Easter.


Source Spiegel English

And a good morning and nice start into the week to everyone!
Quoting barbamz:


Sigh, our so hard weather fate this week ;-)
Freezing temps are approaching my place in Mainz from the north.


Photo Gallery

Spring Unsprung: Winter Returns to Germany with a Vengeance


Just last week, outdoor cafes were jammed as people in northern Europe sought to catch the first rays of warm, spring sunshine. Now, much of the region lies under a fresh blanket of snow with no relief in sight.

Germans might be extremely good at engineering. But they are even better at complaining about the weather. Which is why the first few days of March were such a welcome respite. Following the dreariest winter since records began over half a century ago -- and the accompanying long faces and grousing -- the sunny, 12-degree Celsius (55-degree Fahrenheit) weather seen last week was enough to guarantee jammed tables at outdoor cafes.

Now? Those same cafes, in northern Germany at least, are buried under up to 22 centimeters (nine inches) of snow, with temperatures in the coming days to remain stubbornly below freezing. The front is set to spread across the rest of the country on Monday and Tuesday, prematurely shuttering Bavarian beer gardens that opened their gates last week.

Even worse, despite spring being awaited this year with more anticipation than usual, the unseasonably cold weather is set to stick around at least through the end of the week. Temperatures in Berlin won't climb back up above freezing until the weekend at least, according to meteorologists.

Germany and its immediate neighbors, of course, aren't the only places where winter returned with a vengeance after early spring sunshine had raised hopes. Britain too experienced some unexpected snowfall this weekend, dashing initial hopes for a warm month of March.

Still, with Christmas weather having been a balmy 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) last year, perhaps the weather gods are trying to make amends. There is, after all, still a chance of a white Easter.


Source Spiegel English

And a good morning and nice start into the week to everyone!


It is a very weird March for sure across Europe and the US. I don't recall this active of a March in a very long time. It also appears March is going to be going out like a LION & not a LAMB. While you guys have Saturn approaching we in the US need to watch the models to see if we will be dealing with an EPIC storm come early next week.


Forcast for Tomorrow morning.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It is a very weird March for sure across Europe and the US. I don't recall this active of a March in a very long time. It also appears March is going to be going out like a LION & not a LAMB. While you guys have Saturn approaching we in the US need to watch the models to see if we will be dealing with an EPIC storm come early next week.




The tropical moisture Ex-Saturn has collected, means a lot of "rain for Spain again" = PlazaRed (and of course Portugal) tomorrow.
The Panstarrs Comet.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Thanks to Eclipse-Maps.com
Major snowstorm underway across Northern France. Biggest snowstorm is several years, potentially one of the worst for March
Saw thundersnow last night.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Major snowstorm underway across Northern France. Biggest snowstorm is several years, potentially one of the worst for March


Quoting AussieStorm:
Major snowstorm underway across Northern France. Biggest snowstorm is several years, potentially one of the worst for March


Woke up to 5" of snow here in Scotland.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Forcast for Tomorrow morning.

Morning ST Scott, You really think Fl. will get that much rain?Not much moisture around here. Where are you located at? I'm in Zephyrhills Fl.
Quoting yonzabam:


Woke up to 5" of snow here in Scotland.

My Cousin in Cumnock sent me a photo earlier. Looked like pretty heavy snow. I'll try to upload it.
Quoting AussieStorm:
The Panstarrs Comet.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Thanks to Eclipse-Maps.com


Beautiful, thank you!
Two years ago today.



NATURAL DISASTER: TOHUKU EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

Today, March 11 marks the two year anniversary of the deadly Tohuku earthquake and tsunami. The earthquake was the strongest in Japanese recorded history, registering 9.0 on the Richter scale, and one of the 5 strongest recorded in the world since 1900. The epicenter was located about 70 km (43 mi) off the coast of the Oshika Peninsula at a depth of 32 km (20 mi). Although the death toll and damage from the earthquake was severe, the greatest destruction was caused by the deadly tsunami that followed. The tsunami traveled inland up to 10 km (6 mi) in the Sendai area and reached an incredible height of 37.88 m (124 ft) in Miyako. The estimated death toll was 15,853, with at least 6.023 injuries and 3,282 missing. The infrastructure damage was severe, as well with 129,225 buildings collapsed, 254,204 half-collapsed and 691,776 partially damaged. Of great concern for weeks after the event was the damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor, which suffered a level 7 meltdown.

The earthquake was classified as a megathrust quake and occurred along a subduction zone, an area where the Pacific plate is sinking below the North America plate in the Japan Trench. Studies after the event indicate the seabed between the earthquake epicenter and the Japan Trench moved approximately 50 m (164 ft) east-southeast and rose about 7 m (23 ft). Many seismologists were surprised by the strength of the earthquake, as past modeling studies indicated subduction zone quakes in that are would not exceed magnitude 8.4. However, models were generated using data from short historical records. New work is being done to revisit models and include paleoseismic records, although even those events are limited. Several other subduction zone areas in the world may need to be studied and revised as potential 9.0 magnitude zones.

The tsunami generated by the earthquake was far more destructive than the initial quake. A tsunami occurs when the seafloor abruptly deforms, causing a vertical displacement in the water. A series of long-wavelength waves, or wave train, is formed as the water attempts to regain equilibrium. Although the government of Japan issued tsunami warnings after the earthquake, the loss of life was severe due to the unprecedented height of the waves. The tsunami waves inundated approximately 561 km2 (217 mi2) at heights over 9m (29 ft) in many coastal cities.

Photo: Wave crashing over a street in Miyako City, Japan, courtesy of Mainichi Shimbun, Reuters

References and additional information:

http://mceer.buffalo.edu/infoservice/disasters/Ho nshu-Japan-Earthquake-Tsunami-2011.asp
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/01/1301 23133901.htm
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenew s/2011/usc0001xgp/
Quoting severstorm:
Morning ST Scott, You really think Fl. will get that much rain?Not much moisture around here. Where are you located at? I'm in Zephyrhills Fl.


Longwood, FL ;). I think we could see a 1/2 to an 1" of rain out of this system.
Quoting barbamz:


Beautiful, thank you!

You could see the video. I can't so I didn't know if it embedded properly.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Major snowstorm underway across Northern France. Biggest snowstorm is several years, potentially one of the worst for March



Forecast of snow accumulations until Wednesday in (northern)France. I don't think it's catastrophic.
Sooooo, is the Korean War technically back on?

I mean after however many times NK has withdrawn from the armistice, I wonder why they feel obligated to do it again.
Quoting barbamz:



Forecast of snow accumulations until Wednesday in (northern)France. I don't think it's catastrophic.

But how is this to a normal March?
Good Morning everyone...


A moment to remember 3-11

This was the first picture I saw before I went to school when I was in High School
I liked the 12z ECMWF from yesterday better than the 0z from today. Would have been fun in the SE. However the ECMWF came to it's senses keeping all the fun NE.
Maybe NYC and north could see a major storm if it verifies

Today:



Yesterday:





maybe severe wx in 10 days as well
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Speaking of Storm of The Century. Look at the Euro. Yikes!

12Z Euro



OZ Euro

Anyone know when this is suppose to occur?.Looks like a hurricane running up the coast.It appears D.C would get heavy rain and high winds.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Speaking of Storm of The Century. Look at the Euro. Yikes!

12Z Euro



OZ Euro



really another nor'easter...at least rain and wind. No more snow for me.
possible low 970s mb low on the western tip of long island if the ECMWF pans out

(if yesterday's run had panned out it would have been a sub 990mb low in SC, extreme for the SE)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone know when this is suppose to occur?.Looks like a hurricane running up the coast.It appears D.C would get heavy rain and high winds.


Well the hurricane could strike us around March 20...by looking at that model run
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
possible low 970s mb low on the western tip of long island if the ECMWF pans out

(if yesterday's run had panned out it would have been a sub 990mb low in SC, extreme for the SE)
So what time frame is this suppose to occur?.

Post 938 I know that's not a hurricane -_- just a strong area of low pressure.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


really another nor'easter...at least rain and wind. No more snow for me.


it might snow.

cold air would be in place if the low strengthens enough.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it might snow.

cold air would be in place if the low strengthens enough.


I meant I was not looking forward to any winter weather now... Im sick of the snow, you can have it instead.

is the wind read in kt or mph on the allan's model runs...? it says 50 around my area..
Quoting AussieStorm:
The Panstarrs Comet.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Thanks to Eclipse-Maps.com
Good morning all. Thanks Aussie for that video. I was driving downtown on Saturday evening and thought I saw the comet. The sun was just at the right angle for the sunlight to shine on it. I thought it was the comet, but was told I wouldn't see it until 3/12. So I guess I did see it and not the alternative UFO. I even saw the tail for a brief moment. And yes, it was still daylight. Something I've always wanted to see, a bright comet in the daytime! Everyone have a good day.
Link concerning the weather in France: Webcam of famous Le Mont-Saint-Michel in northwestern France, new video every 15 min., now in bad weather.


This photo from Wiki is not live, it was was taken Sept. 2011. It's a very special place (I've been there, hrrm, 35 years ago. Sigh.), check it out on Wiki.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what time frame is this suppose to occur?.


trough dips out the midwest in 7 days
Quoting AussieStorm:

I've been in the Atlantic and of course the Pacific, one day I'll touch the Indian ocean.


your continent already touches it... you just have to fly over.

Im my case I have two options;
swim across the whole Pacific
or swim across the Atlantic and walk across all Africa to get there, no shortcut.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


your continent already touches it... you just have to fly over.

Im my case I have two options;
swim across the whole Pacific
or swim across the Atlantic and walk across all Africa to get there, no shortcut.

Flying from Sydney to Perth is 4hrs. I could also drive and it would take me about a week. Those are my two options.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


trough dips out the midwest in 7 days
Okay.Because keeper showed some very cold air on the way towards the east and if that storm is riding up the coast some places might be in for some good snows.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


trough dips out the midwest in 7 days


Huge differences right now with the GFS & Euro. I would'nt be surprised if the trough sets up further south & (maybe west) in future runs.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay.Because keeper showed some very cold air on the way towards the east and if that storm is riding up the coast some places might be in for some good snows.


Not really because if the low is strong enough it would pull warmer air in off the Atlantic.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Flying from Sydney to Perth is 4hrs. I could also drive and it would take me about a week. Those are my two options.


the distance from Sydney to Perth (where Indian ocean touches) multiply that by about 200...

that's how far I would take me...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Huge differences right now with the GFS & Euro. I would'nt be surprised if the trough sets up further south & (maybe west) in future runs.


i'm betting it just goes away
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay.Because keeper showed some very cold air on the way towards the east and if that storm is riding up the coast some places might be in for some good snows.


Inland areas yes. Not coastal areas.
Wow, you miss a little, you miss a lot. Just seeing blog today. Good morning You Greedy Lying Bastards
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Not really because if the low is strong enough it would pull warmer air in off the Atlantic.
Well since I'm use to not getting snow as of late might as well just get the rain.And just as I suspected we here are in a surplus.The storm on Tuesday is suppose to add to the it.I suspect this stormy pattern to stay put for a while.
This March is defentially a huge condridiction to last March when we were pushing 90 and the drought was starting to strengthen.This year we're wet and cool.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


the distance from Sydney to Perth (where Indian ocean touches) multiply that by about 200...

that's how far I would take me...

If I hadn't of touched the ATL before I would have to do almost the same.
Btw, I didn't touch the ATL, it touched me.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i'm betting it just goes away


It could very well. I would however watch to see if the GFS catches on to the Euro. The GFS has it but digs the trough out west while the Euro is more progressive with it.



Mason City, IA reports SNOW of 10.0 INCH at 7:00 AM CDT
Quoting AussieStorm:

If I hadn't of touched the AT before I would have to do almost the same.
Btw, I didn't touch the ATL, it touched me.



I always interpret 'the ATL' wrong the first time I read it.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Inland areas yes. Not coastal areas.
Yes higher elevations would.The sst are starting to warm as the sun angle gets higher.Not unless we have a huge artic outbreak then snow seems unlikely here in the big cities/coastal areas.
Omaha, NE broke their snowfall record for March 10 yesterday when they received 8.8". Old record was 2.9" set in 1901.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



I always interpret 'the ATL' wrong the first time I read it.

yeah, "I" know.
Rain over Florida longer this GFS run..we need it...
this might be a beneficial front with its rains.....
...82 days and counting...
Quoting LargoFl:
Rain over Florida longer this GFS run..we need it...
Yes we do.
Its been awhile since ive seen this..looks good...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO UP TO 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN FOR
THE NATURE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NAM moves the front faster,less rain for us....
Quoting Waltanater:
...82 days and counting...
Depending on how the jet steam behaves we could get a storm as early as May or the beginning on June.You see though for last year the jet stream was all the way into Canada by March(which led to above average temps for the nation and the great drought of the mid-west).So it wasnt a surprise when we had 2 storms in May along with a unusually warm gulf stream.This year I don't know..Maybe a invest to track...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I am SURE Obama can heal the planet. Talk about a dirty lying bastard!
We are still in drought here in New Zealand and were hoping for the remnants of a tropical storm to ease it. All in vain as the highs blocked it out.
I did a bit of research on my web site to see if we suffered from a stuck jet stream as you have in the North..
http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/drought.html