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Category 1 Rusty hits Australia; Chicago gets its biggest snow of the winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:53 PM GMT on February 27, 2013

Tropical Cyclone Rusty rumbled ashore over the coast of northwest Australia near 06 UTC (1 am EST) on Wednesday near the small town of Pardoo, about 110 km east of the largest city in the region, Port Hedland. Rusty peaked at Category 2 strength with 110 mph winds about 12 hours before landfall, but weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds as it approached the coast, due to interaction with land. Sustained winds as high as 55 mph, gusting to 74 mph, were observed observed at the Port Hedland airport as Rusty made its approach. Rusty has dumped over 7" of rain on the coast, and major flooding is expected on area rivers. No casualties and only minor damage have been reported thus far, and I expect total damage from the storm will be less than $100 million. Rusty is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect Australia so far in the 2012 - 2013 tropical cyclone season.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 03:40 UTC on February 27, 2013 as seen by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Rusty was two hours from making landfall on the northwest Australian coast near Pardoo as a Category 1 storm with sustained 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Radar image of Rusty showing the large cloud-free eye bumping up against the coast of Australia near Pardoo at 05:40 UTC (12:40 am EST) on Wednesday, February 27. image credit: Bureau of Meteorology.

Significant snowstorm continues over Midwest U.S.
Meanwhile, back in the U.S., the second major winter storm in a week continues to blanket the Midwest with significant snows. The snowstorm, dubbed "Rocky", gave Chicago 5.4" of snow, its heaviest snowfall of what has been a quiet winter. According to the latest NOAA Storm Summary, the heaviest snow in the Midwest from Rocky fell in the Texas Panhandle, where 21" was measured in Follett. While the precipitation from the two major winter storms during the past week will not come anywhere close to busting the Midwest drought, the moisture they dropped is probably worth billions to agriculture.


Figure 3. Two-day snowfall amounts from Winter Storm Rocky.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks jeff masters
have u guys seen the new gfs shows very cold air for south fla
Thanks Jeff...
Thanks for the new Blog Doc
Thanks for the Update Doc
Thanks Doc!!!
Thanks Dr. Masters for the updated blog..
Snow on the 12Z GFS for S FL and for WC FL!:)
showing seflweatherman showed me the gfs shows very cold
Thanks Dr. Masters!

On a side note... I just got my first college acceptance. Planning to major in meteorology and also get a pilot's license.

how cold it shows se flweatherman
my new favorite song daddy yankee limbo
Thanks Dr. Masters....
Thanks, Doc.

We got our biggest snow of the winter here in Nederland, Colorado too - 15" on Sunday. With the 4" we got on Thursday and the 7" we got yesterday that brings our weekly total up to a very respectable 26".

And today - bluebird conditions:



(and here I am trapped in the office... hey, at least I got in a few minutes of cross-country skiing to get from my front door to my truck at the end of the driveway).
Can someone post the models showing snow for Florida? also the precipitation model that shows the rain snow mix. Forgot what that one was called. Thanks
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update on the Hurricane in Australia. It is easy to forget it is Hurricane season in the other hemisphere right now.

Met someone from Australia who said it would not be Christmas day without going to the beach. Odd to my brain, but then us singing 'White Christmas' must be odd to them?

And yay for snow and rain! We had a long Fall and a bout of Spring before Winter finally got here. We need the precip!

Quoting tampahurricane:
Can someone post the models showing snow for Florida? also the precipitation model that shows the rain snow mix. Forgot what that one was called. Thanks


Can't post but Twisterdata.com has the 12z GFS that shows snow for Tampa on Sat Night Sun Morning
Quoting tampahurricane:
Can someone post the models showing snow for Florida? also the precipitation model that shows the rain snow mix. Forgot what that one was called. Thanks


The 06Z shows it for a couple of hours ...

06Z GFS Snow
Cat 1,cat2,cat3,cat4, I've heard it all with this damn Rusty
sat/sunday snow comes close to FL panhandle........
northeast sure has a hard winter this year huh......
Hits as a 1, was a 3, would of been a 4 on US scale, hits as 1. Just give me the friggin wind speed and I'll figure it out myself
Quoting LargoFl:
sat/sunday snow comes close to FL panhandle........
Quoting LargoFl:
sat/sunday snow comes close to FL panhandle........


It will be right around 30 sat night sun morning in Brooksville, i think we might just see some sleet possible flurries
Where is everybody?
Wondering if anyone has seismic knowlege on this site. A number of small quakes located close to Mississippi on USGS in the last week.
Seems to be with in the normal parameters.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Wondering if anyone has seismic knowlege on this site. A number of small quakes located close to Mississippi on USGS in the last week.

Quoting robintampabay:


It will be right around 30 sat night sun morning in Brooksville, i think we might just see some sleet possible flurries


If this were January instead of early March (this upcoming weekend) then there would be the possibility of a significant snow event with this setup.

Don't forget that you had sleet just three years ago in Brooksville and a few flurries thrown in for good measure. Further north from there, it was a bit heavier. We had sleet here in West Pasco County for a couple of hours or so one night in 2010. But again, that was in January or early February. It can happen even in March though, if everything comes together just right.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


If this were January instead of early March (this upcoming weekend) then there would be the possibility of a significant snow event with this setup.

Don't forget that you had sleet just three years ago in Brooksville and a few flurries thrown in for good measure. Further north from there, it was a bit heavier. We had sleet here in West Pasco County for a couple of hours or so one night in 2010. But again, that was in January or early February. It can happen even in March though, if everything comes together just right.


We will see, if it's going to happen anywhere in the peninsula of Florida, Brooksville would be one of the spots!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hits as a 1, was a 3, would of been a 4 on US scale, hits as 1. Just give me the friggin wind speed and I'll figure it out myself


May I offer you in a nice cup of coffee? LOL



Good to see you RE. All the rain we were forecast to get this week has been revised to a lot of sunshine for the week. As long as that does not become too persistent it is nicer to see than clouds that do not provide rain.
Rain in S FL!!
Quoting Thrawst:
Thanks Dr. Masters!

On a side note... I just got my first college acceptance. Planning to major in meteorology and also get a pilot's license.

Congrats :)

Thanks for the new post Doc.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Wondering if anyone has seismic knowlege on this site. A number of small quakes located close to Mississippi on USGS in the last week.


Had one that size here yesterday. Just a small one. Good stress relief for the fault. It was 12 miles away.

Loma Linda, CA 12 miles 3.6 12:18 PM PST 2013-02-26
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Wondering if anyone has seismic knowlege on this site. A number of small quakes located close to Mississippi on USGS in the last week.


I'm a geologist, but my focus is hydrology not seismology. In any case, I just checked the USGS earthquake hazards page and I'm not sure which earthquakes you're asking about.

This map shows all earthquakes over the past 30 days.



Looks like there have been a few trembles up in Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri that are almost certainly associated with the New Madrid fault system, but I believe this level of activity is normal. I also see a couple clusters in Texas that might be associated with oil development, but that's totally a guess.

Do you have a link to any info about quakes you are referring to?

If you want to check out the USGS earthquake hazards program page you can check that out here:

USGS Earthquake Hazards

Thanks Doc..
There was one tornado yesterday in North Carolina.

"The National Weather Service confirmed Wednesday that a tornado touched down near Selma late Tuesday.

The EF0 tornado had wind speeds of 65 to 75 mph and caused damage along a quarter-mile path that was 75 yards wide, officials said.

A barn was destroyed by the tornado, and a couple of other buildings along Old Beulah Road sustained damage, officials said.

No injuries were reported."

Very interesting how the "center of circulation" on this midwest storm keeps changing. This morning it was over Ohio, now its back over Wisconsin...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Rain in S FL!!


They lowered the pops down here considerably but it looks like the lift is happening now . It's too bad it won't be enough . Something's better than nothing though .
Thanks Dr. Masters! :-)
Thank you, Dr. Masters, for all your nearly daily efforts.


Loop, watch the sudden decay of Rusty on land.
Quoting MrMixon:


I'm a geologist, but my focus is hydrology not seismology. In any case, I just checked the USGS earthquake hazards page and I'm not sure which earthquakes you're asking about.

This map shows all earthquakes over the past 30 days.



Looks like there have been a few trembles up in Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri that are almost certainly associated with the New Madrid fault system, but I believe this level of activity is normal. I also see a couple clusters in Texas that might be associated with oil development, but that's totally a guess.

Do you have a link to any info about quakes you are referring to?

If you want to check out the USGS earthquake hazards program page you can check that out here:

USGS Earthquake Hazards

Thanks... talk with my friend who lives in W. Tennessee. She felt numerous tremors. Yes, we know about fracking here but she said these quakes felt different. I look and try to learn more about that New Madrid Fault. No news in papers about these either. Thanks.
Some news on Science Daily:

Why Have White Storks Stopped Migrating?

Feb. 27, 2013 — A new project to find out why storks are changing their migratory patterns has been launched by the University of East Anglia. In folklore, storks' strong white wings would carry babies to parents around the world. But since the mid 1980s increasing numbers of storks have stopped their annual migration from Northern Europe to Africa for the winter.

Instead, many are living in Spain and Portugal the whole year round -- feeding on 'junk food' from rubbish dumps.

The project will track 15 adult white storks for a year using GPS loggers to investigate why they have changed their migratory behaviour. Researchers will investigate the link between climate change and feeding habits to predict future distribution of the species.

Source and whole article


Global Surveys Show Environment Ranks Low Among Public Concerns

Feb. 25, 2013 — A newly released international study reveals that the issue of climate change is not a priority for people in the United States and around the world.

The surveys showed that when asked to rank priority worries, people were five times more likely to point to the economy over the environment. Additionally, when asked about climate change, people identified the issue as more as a national problem than a personal concern.


Source and whole article


Have a nice evening, folks!
I have no links to earthquakes here other than USGS. Just know that all these were shallow and horizontal. Try and look up and I do not find anything other than the very scary FEMA report. And yes... did find an article about BP incident in the Gulf that 'suggested' that it may have been caused by an earthquake. I don't know. I Just tell her to move east.... she tells me that it would be wiser to go north. She is close to a Nuke plant.
Quoting PTXer:
Very interesting how the "center of circulation" on this midwest storm keeps changing. This morning it was over Ohio, now its back over Wisconsin...

Blame Europe (no, really)!



Rex Blocking over the continent is causing an atmospheric traffic jam behind it. Until that clears out, everything moving west to east across the country will be slow and erratic. Things are also amplifying more than normal due to the aforementioned blocking, which explains the possibility of snow across Texas and Florida this weekend.
weather chat time ppl

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER NEAR HAVANA (US 27).
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:31 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.7 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.2 FEET BY TOMORROW
MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 32.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOOD DAMAGE WILL OCCUR.

$$
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


May I offer you in a nice cup of coffee? LOL



Good to see you RE. All the rain we were forecast to get this week has been revised to a lot of sunshine for the week. As long as that does not become too persistent it is nicer to see than clouds that do not provide rain.


This is a nice feature, notice the outflow on the east side arcing clockwise from the Upper level High creating the fanning affect


Quoting barbamz:
Some news on Science Daily:

Why Have White Storks Stopped Migrating?

Feb. 27, 2013 — A new project to find out why storks are changing their migratory patterns has been launched by the University of East Anglia. In folklore, storks' strong white wings would carry babies to parents around the world. But since the mid 1980s increasing numbers of storks have stopped their annual migration from Northern Europe to Africa for the winter.

Instead, many are living in Spain and Portugal the whole year round -- feeding on 'junk food' from rubbish dumps.

The project will track 15 adult white storks for a year using GPS loggers to investigate why they have changed their migratory behaviour. Researchers will investigate the link between climate change and feeding habits to predict future distribution of the species.

Source and whole article


Global Surveys Show Environment Ranks Low Among Public Concerns

Feb. 25, 2013 — A newly released international study reveals that the issue of climate change is not a priority for people in the United States and around the world.

The surveys showed that when asked to rank priority worries, people were five times more likely to point to the economy over the environment. Additionally, when asked about climate change, people identified the issue as more as a national problem than a personal concern.


Source and whole article


Have a nice evening, folks!
Pole shift
We had some strong winds here...

1,292 customers without power as a result of this in Connecticut...

Global Surveys Show Environment Ranks Low Among Public Concerns

Feb. 25, 2013 — A newly released international study reveals that the issue of climate change is not a priority for people in the United States and around the world.

The surveys showed that when asked to rank priority worries, people were five times more likely to point to the economy over the environment. Additionally, when asked about climate change, people identified the issue as more as a national problem than a personal concern.



Shows how stupid the American society really is, there won't be an economy when the rains don't fall, the water doesn't flow, the food supply is cut off, I can go on and on.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Global Surveys Show Environment Ranks Low Among Public Concerns

Feb. 25, 2013 — A newly released international study reveals that the issue of climate change is not a priority for people in the United States and around the world.

The surveys showed that when asked to rank priority worries, people were five times more likely to point to the economy over the environment. Additionally, when asked about climate change, people identified the issue as more as a national problem than a personal concern.



Shows how stupid the American society really is, there won't be an economy when the rains don't fall, the water doesn't flow, the food supply is cut off, I can go on and on.
AND the bees that pollinate.
Anyone else watching the Inspiration Mars conference? Really exciting stuff. All over social media right now.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
AND the bees that pollinate.
And really they WANT you to think it is 'All' over the world, when in fact it is right here in the USA.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
And really they WANT you to think it is 'All' over the world, when in fact it is right here in the USA.

True.
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 10:53 AM PST on February 27, 2013
Clear
69 °F
Clear
Humidity: 10%
Dew Point: 9 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 25 mph
Pressure: 30.19 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6 out of 16
Pollen: 9.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

66.4 here right now. Forecast 72, should make it.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
AND the bees that pollinate.


Save the Bee's
US $150,000,000 for Parks and Reserves. (150 million)
US $ 8,000,000,000,000 for Oil Subsidies. (8 Billion)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Global Surveys Show Environment Ranks Low Among Public Concerns

Feb. 25, 2013 — A newly released international study reveals that the issue of climate change is not a priority for people in the United States and around the world.

The surveys showed that when asked to rank priority worries, people were five times more likely to point to the economy over the environment. Additionally, when asked about climate change, people identified the issue as more as a national problem than a personal concern.



Shows how stupid the American society really is, there won't be an economy when the rains don't fall, the water doesn't flow, the food supply is cut off, I can go on and on.


The bottom line here is that the human species is temporary on this planet, just like all the others. Whether that happens sooner or later remains to be seen.
Quoting RitaEvac:


This is a nice feature, notice the outflow on the east side arcing clockwise from the Upper level High creating the fanning affect




LOL! Ya gotta love it! Excellent post, RE!
Quoting PTXer:
Very interesting how the "center of circulation" on this midwest storm keeps changing. This morning it was over Ohio, now its back over Wisconsin...
Believe there are three separate circulations associated w/ this storm, OH would be middle one, WI would be western one.
Why this economy WILL NOT LAST, and weather changes all play a role

This thing is what woke me up and realized exactly where we're going

http://moneymappress.com/pro/HPyramid0712MMRClick .php?code=EPYRN718&n=PYRAMIDMMR49EADMMP
Quoting pottery:
US $150,000,000 for Parks and Reserves. (150 million)
US $ 8,000,000,000,000 for Oil Subsidies. (8 Billion)
Ass backwards.
Remember "The Three Es"



Knock one leg out from the bottom for example such as weather changing the environment and the economy at top topples to the ground. Mother Nature is working on that right now
Quoting RitaEvac:
Why this economy WILL NOT LAST, and weather changes all play a role

This thing is what woke me up and realized exactly where we're going

http://moneymappress.com/pro/HPyramid0712MMRClick .php?code=EPYRN718&n=PYRAMIDMMR49EADMMP
Wake up Rita... They are selling you there line of crap!
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Wake up Rita... They are selling you there line of crap!


I'm not buying anything from them, just reading what they say
Quoting RitaEvac:


I'm not buying anything from them, just reading what they say
Thanks... wish more people would pay attention to what is being sold and thrown down our throats!
It looks like the dry weather that Puerto Rico has been thru in the past few weeks will end by next Monday as a cold front arrives bringing scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST WED FEB 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
BREAK DOWN AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...STILL EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO
WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO EACH DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
MEANDERS EASTWARD. A WETTER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL
REACH THE MONA PASSAGE MONDAY AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS WILL REMAIN
FROM EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS TAF SITES IN PR AND 10
TO 15 KTS FOR TIST...TISX...AND TKPK.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 72 83 / 0 0 0 10
STT 72 83 72 84 / 0 0 10 10
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Thanks... wish more people would pay attention to what is being sold and thrown down our throats!


It is informative on how things work and how brittle everything we take for granted can be taken away in short time
Rusty Losing strength at a rather quick pace

Rainbow

Temp dropping here in Mid TN.. snow "micro-flurries" starting, kids are ready for a snow day, not sure that's gonna happen this week...
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Thanks... wish more people would pay attention to what is being sold and thrown down our throats!




Try being from Europe at the Moment ! Mixing Beef with Horse and it has effected nearly every ready meal that is supposed to be beef ... At the moment I cant look at processed Beef without wondering !!


The strong cold front will be south of the area on Sunday allowing for
high pressure to build into the Florida Peninsula Sunday night from
the north. This will allow for mostly clear skies over the area on
Sunday and Sunday night. The winds will also become light and
variable over the land areas Sunday night. Therefore...highs on
Sunday will again be in the 60s over all of South Florida...as
lows will be in the middle to upper 30s over the interior areas

wow cold mid 2 upper 30
Quoting VR46L:




Try being from Europe at the Moment ! Mixing Beef with Horse and it has effected nearly every ready meal that is supposed to be beef ... At the moment I cant look at processed Beef without wondering !!


Yes... I know, my cousin lives in Co. Down, N. Ireland. Don't eat the beef. Horses are injected with antibiotics that are lethal to people. I think she said it was Bute???? Not sure. You NEED TO LOOK THIS UP. Stay away from beef unless it is a farm that you are familiar with. My personal fav... is lamb, and I even like mutton. Guess it's in my heritage to love it!!!!!!!!!!! And Oooooo do I know how to cook it... again my heritage!!!!!!!!!!!! YUM
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Yes... I know, my cousin lives in Co. Down, N. Ireland. Don't eat the beef. Horses are injected with antibiotics that are lethal to people. I think she said it was Bute???? Not sure. You NEED TO LOOK THIS UP. Stay away from beef unless it is a farm that you are familliar with. My personal fav... is lamb, and I even like mutton. Guess it's in my heritage to love it!!!!!!!!!!! And Oooooo do I know how to cook it... again my heritage!!!!!!!!!!!! YUM


Yeah the bute thing is scary!! I like beef as a rule but cant face mince or ready meals these days .. But I love lamb Had lamb chops tonight they were beautiful !! I think its an Irish thing. some people in the rest of the world cant understand how you can eat something so cute but you just have to be pragmatic the taste is just beautiful .

Another beautiful day here but temps are droping close to freezing now
Quoting eddye:
The strong cold front will be south of the area on Sunday allowing for
high pressure to build into the Florida Peninsula Sunday night from
the north. This will allow for mostly clear skies over the area on
Sunday and Sunday night. The winds will also become light and
variable over the land areas Sunday night. Therefore...highs on
Sunday will again be in the 60s over all of South Florida...as
lows will be in the middle to upper 30s over the interior areas

wow cold mid 2 upper 30
If it could just get cold enough Saturday into Sunday Morning the precip. will be around for it to snow, so now it is all dependent on how low it will go. Dennis Phillips is saying sometime around 4 am. is our best chance.
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Quoting PedleyCA:
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa


LOL !! I know its bad !
Quoting VR46L:


Yeah the bute thing is scary!! I like beef as a rule but cant face mince or ready meals these days .. But I love lamb Had lamb chops tonight they were beautiful !! I think its an Irish thing. some people in the rest of the world cant understand how you can eat something so cute but you just have to be pragmatic the taste is just beautiful .
Make me hungry for a leg!!!
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Make me hungry for a leg!!!
You either love it or hate it! My ex hated the smell of it cooking, thankfully my girls love it!

Little things in life that can make you happy! Yup a lamb leg roasting.... oh
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Make me hungry for a leg!!!


Having one on Sunday love my Sunday roast


Anyways

How is the weather in your parts at the moment?
Quoting VR46L:


Having one on Sunday love my Sunday roast


Anyways

How is the weather in your parts at the moment?
Rainy... just like the Ire.
12z GFS

Quoting JustPlantIt:
Rainy... just like the Ire.



It hasn't rained here in 13 days ...and I am loving it makes such a change from the awful year we had last year


Quoting GTcooliebai:
If it could just get cold enough Saturday into Sunday Morning the precip. will be around for it to snow, so now it is all dependent on how low it will go. Dennis Phillips is saying sometime around 4 am. is our best chance.


Hey GT,

I think it could start a little earlier in Brooksville.
This one makes it seem more ominous and perhaps even accumulations?

Nite boys and girls... put those clucks to bed and ooooooooh maybe spend the money on a leg of lamb..... ooooo, that taste with rosemary and garlic and some fresh mint gelly. Can I dare say orgas... well, I will be good and say organic but some can fill it the blanks! LOL
Quoting VR46L:


LOL !! I know its bad !


Didn't say that. I don't think I even know what Lamb tastes like. It is probably too expensive. I was just reading an article about various meats and it said that Beef, Pork, Lamb and Pork were red meats. That's funny isn't Pork being advertised as the other White meat? That would be Rabbit. I have eaten that. My Aunt and Uncle used to raise rabbits for food. Eating bunnies is probably frowned on too. ..... lol
Quoting robintampabay:


Hey GT,

I think it could start a little earlier in Brooksville.
Maybe what will be interesting to see is when all of this actually starts is how much colder it will get. Usually down here when there is cloud cover it acts as a blanket that keeps us warmer. However, if we have clear skies by midnight and it allows us to cool off enough before the clouds move in we really do have a shot before sun rise of seeing some flakes.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Didn't say that. I don't think I even know what Lamb tastes like. It is probably too expensive. I was just reading an article about various meats and it said that Beef, Pork, Lamb and Pork were red meats. That's funny isn't Pork being advertised as the other White meat? That would be Rabbit. I have eaten that. My Aunt and Uncle used to raise rabbits for food. Eating bunnies is probably frowned on too. ..... lol
I have eaten all, Lamb is fatty, stick with Goat if you like nice wild and red meat.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Didn't say that. I don't think I even know what Lamb tastes like. It is probably too expensive. I was just reading an article about various meats and it said that Beef, Pork, Lamb and Pork were red meats. That's funny isn't Pork being advertised as the other White meat? That would be Rabbit. I have eaten that. My Aunt and Uncle used to raise rabbits for food. Eating bunnies is probably frowned on too. ..... lol


As far as I know Fowl is considered white meat , never had rabbit or deer which I understand is very commonly eaten in the US

LOL ! I think it was my guilty conscience that was saying its really bad to eat something so cute but its beautiful IMO but can be greasy .
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Maybe what will be interesting to see is when all of this actually starts is how much colder it will get. Usually down here when there is cloud cover it acts as a blanket that keeps us warmer. However, if we have clear skies by midnight and it allows us to cool off enough before the clouds move in we really do have a shot before sun rise of seeing some flakes.


I will be up to see what happens and if any frozen presip falls I will take Pics and post here Monday Morning.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I have eaten all, Lamb is fatty, stick with Goat if you like nice wild and red meat.


Try Bison it is delish
Earthquakes in Oklahoma. As an Austinite, I find this quite amusing...lol!
Think everyone was a little tired of the gloomy winter. :)

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeu ro 500mbHGHTNA192.gif

00Z euro showing a 989 mb low at the mouth of the Potomac in 192 hours.
Quoting VR46L:


As far as I know Fowl is considered white meat , never had rabbit or deer which I understand is very commonly eaten in the US

LOL ! I think it was my guilty conscience that was saying its really bad to eat something so cute but its beautiful IMO but can be greasy .


I have tasted Deer and it was OK, but again Bambi.... Nver had Bison but I hear that is good and that is available here if you ask for it.
Cooking a beef roast right now. Crock pot.....
Im afraid that little low exiting SC might do something for me here in NYC


"MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY BUT
THERE IS STILL A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW
ACTUALLY TRACKS"
103. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


I have tasted Deer and it was OK, but again Bambi.... Nver had Bison but I hear that is good and that is available here if you ask for it.
Cooking a beef roast right now. Crock pot.....


I imagine bison would be a tough version of beef ... I hear you on the deer thing but it could be worse . I could never eat Cat or Dog .

Whats the weather like at the moment in CA?
Quoting VR46L:


I imagine bison would be a tough version of beef ... I hear you on the deer thing but it could be worse . I could never eat Cat or Dog .

Whats the weather like at the moment in CA?


Bison is a much leaner cut of meat. Very tasty and better for you than beef.
Well well well...GFS showing snow flurries over Tampa Saturday night and Sunday morning...If this verifies I will be pretty amazed.
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 11:49 AM PST on February 27, 2013
Clear
68 °F
Clear
Humidity: 16%
Dew Point: 20 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 24.0 mph
Pressure: 30.18 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Pollen: 9.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

This is one hour old. I have 68.4 here and it is somewhat windy.
107. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im afraid that little low exiting SC might do something for me here in NYC


"MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY BUT
THERE IS STILL A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW
ACTUALLY TRACKS"


The GFS seems to send what you are looking at out to sea

Quoting VR46L:


I imagine bison would be a tough version of beef ... I hear you on the deer thing but it could be worse . I could never eat Cat or Dog .

Whats the weather like at the moment in CA?
Actually bison or buffalo which ever you choose to call it is very lean and quite good.
109. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Actually bison or buffalo which ever you choose to call it is very lean and quite good.


I will have to try it 4 good recommendations if I ever see it I will get some and try it !!
Quoting VR46L:


I will have to try it 4 good recommendations if I ever see it I will get some and try it !!
We have the ground version at Publix here in south Florida... It's not cheap
Quoting VR46L:


The GFS seems to send what you are looking at out to sea



Yes, the GFS does, but the Euro cranks it up.
Quoting TheGreatHodag:


Yes, the GFS does, but the Euro cranks it up.


Yes...that's what I don't want.

wow, 988 mb so far south??? What would it be when it gets up here near NYC?

Is going to be another Euro-GFS fight..
Quoting TheGreatHodag:


Yes, the GFS does, but the Euro cranks it up.

12z Euro keeps it more offshore, I think the GFS may be winning this battle:



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Yes...that's what I don't want.

Is going to be another Euro-GFS fight..


and given their recent track record, i think the Euro is more likely to be right. Though of course it is too early to know anything for sure.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

12z Euro keeps it more offshore, I think the GFS may be winning this battle:





yeah I don't want more snow (if it comes to be so)...but still unsure about the GFS
Quoting TheGreatHodag:


and given their recent track record, i think the Euro is more likely to be right. Though of course it is too early to know anything for sure.


I think the Euro has more chances of being right but is still way early to tell. It's a week out run.
Here's the lateset.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 12:53 PM PST on February 27, 2013
Clear
70 °F
Clear
Humidity: 10%
Dew Point: 10 °F
Wind: 14 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 26 mph
Pressure: 30.17 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Pollen: 9.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

68.8 here forecast 74
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Well well well...GFS showing snow flurries over Tampa Saturday night and Sunday morning...If this verifies I will be pretty amazed.
If it is going to verify, the official NWS forecast will have to be revised fairly soon. They are still suggesting low 40s for lows and low 60s for highs. That is not nearly cold enough for snow.

Even if the as of now officially forecasted low temperature of 35F in Brooksville is reached, that is a cold pocket in this region and temperatures throughout the surrounding area would be warmer.

For now, the NWS is being conservative and is going with the warmest model guidance available for this upcoming cold snap. They must be skeptical of the GFS, which has consistently predicted below freezing nighttime temps over most of the area late in the weekend and on Monday night as well.


This could be the big kicker regardless of snow/rain totals. And is the wind here being measured in MPH or KPH?
Today's official announcement of the Mars Inspiration and NASA mission to Mars is a potentially historic moment in the making. If this happens, it would be on pair with missions like Apollo 8. It would be the first time any human has visited another planet, and would be immortalized in history forever.. only overshadowed by when we actually get to land there.
NYC NWS:

A FAIRLY BENIGN LATE WINTER PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL THEN EXISTS FOR A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
122. VR46L
CPC Still predicting colder than normal weather in both the 6-10 and 8-14 outlook for Eastern half of US


6-10 day


8-14 days

Inspiration Mars Flight video Just something I found browsing youtube.
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Well well well...GFS showing snow flurries over Tampa Saturday night and Sunday morning...If this verifies I will be pretty amazed.


Well I know, someone mentioned snow over North Central Texas with the same system. However, we will be too dry and it will not reach the ground.
From the Forecast Discussion...
"FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW FROM CLOUD BASES AROUND 7000FT. MOST OF THIS PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA GIVEN A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 800MB."
Link

But we can hope, right? Tampa? That would be pretty amazing!
Again with the idiotic storm names and now you're not even "crediting" your Weather Channel masters for this disgrace. Hey, if you are going to dilute your credibility and embarrass yourself like this at least make some money. Sell the naming rights. That way we'll see Winter Storm Tide! Winter Storm Bud Light! Winter Storm BMW! Winter Storm Summer's Eve! Winter Storm Godaddy!

Time to get back to your roots or fold the tent.
Article in Post Dispatch says barges are running with full loads again as river has come up about 9 feet from Dec./Jan. lows. Let's hope it doesn't get that low again for a long time.
sun about to rise over Rusty

Quoting riblet2000:
Again with the idiotic storm names and now you're not even "crediting" your Weather Channel masters for this disgrace. Hey, if you are going to dilute your credibility and embarrass yourself like this at least make some money. Sell the naming rights. That way we'll see Winter Storm Tide! Winter Storm Bud Light! Winter Storm BMW! Winter Storm Summer's Eve! Winter Storm Godaddy!

Time to get back to your roots or fold the tent.

woah, lets not go there
Quoting JeffMasters:

Rusty has dumped over 7" of rain on the coast


You might want to revise that Dr Masters. Pardoo Weather Station received 250mm(9.84in) from 12:00 to 15:00 yesterday 27/02/2013. Also at 15:00 Pardoo weather station observed a MSL pressure of 959hPa. We'll have to wait till 09:00WST for the 24hr rainfall figures to come in, if the wx station is back up and running that is as the 15:00 was the last observation.

Latest Weather Observations for Pardoo

Telfer has received 172.8mm(6.8in) from Rusty
Quoting AussieStorm:


You might want to revise that Dr Masters. Pardoo Weather Station received 250mm(9.84in) from 12:00 to 15:00 yesterday 27/02/2013. Also at 15:00 Pardoo weather station observed a MSL pressure of 959hPa. We'll have to wait till 09:00WST for the 24hr rainfall figures to come in, if the wx station is back up and running that is as the 15:00 was the last observation.

Latest Weather Observations for Pardoo


Good morning Aussie..it's 9:35 AM EST there.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Good morning Aussie..it's 9:35 AM EST there.

Morning, Your correct 9:37am
Here's my thinking regarding temperatures during March for the United States:

The blocking pattern were currently in should promote generally cooler-than-average temperatures across a large part of the United States during the first part of March, as the CPC indicates in their forecast. However, by the middle portion of the month, a big pattern change and warm up is expected to occur. This warm up should be quite substantial according to model depictions, making it hard for the month to average below average. For the North, however, the brunt of the rise in temperatures will stay away, and cold air the first part of the month should mean a below average March overall.

Could be wrong.

Bye Bye Rusty. Thanks for coming.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Bye Bye Rusty. Thanks for coming.


remember Oswald? The huge flooding that came after. To me that was unexpected...do you think that is possible with this storm...I know it's in a different location, but, just asking.
135. VR46L
Tropical Cyclone 18 Pretty cool to see

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)from RAMMB

Loop embedded

Quoting VR46L:
Birth of Tropical Cyclone 18 Pretty cool to see

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)from RAMMB

Loop embedded



owww I forgot about that one.. Did it die? I don't see it on wu's site..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

remember Oswald? The huge flooding that came after. To me that was unexpected...do you think that is possible with this storm...I know it's in a different location, but, just asking.

Well, rusty has practically dried up.

138. VR46L
I will be honest had not been following it just spied on the rambb site and looked to me like it just spurted into life ... thought it looked cool but tiny
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, rusty has practically dried up.



ohh I see. Forgot to check the water vapor sat before I even asked what I asked.

Actually, can we say "Practically Rusty got rusted" (?).
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


owww I forgot about that one.. Did it die? I don't see it on wu's site..

TD18 is just a naked swirl with it's convection to it's west.





The BOM have dropped it. No longer issuing advisories.
141. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

TD18 is just a naked swirl with it's convection to it's west.



The BOM have dropped it. No longer issuing and advisories.


It seems to be establishing some convection but I just like watching the things
Quoting VR46L:
I will be honest had not been following it just spied on the rambb site and looked to me like it just spurted into life ... thought it looked cool but tiny

It was getting sheared big time from Rusty's outflow, now that Rusty has moved away, TD 18 could get it's act together.
now Northern and Northeastern Australia have to be aware for early March
Quoting FLWaterFront:


If this were January instead of early March (this upcoming weekend) then there would be the possibility of a significant snow event with this setup.

Don't forget that you had sleet just three years ago in Brooksville and a few flurries thrown in for good measure. Further north from there, it was a bit heavier. We had sleet here in West Pasco County for a couple of hours or so one night in 2010. But again, that was in January or early February. It can happen even in March though, if everything comes together just right.



If any frozen precip of any kind does manage to fall this time around in Florida it will for sure be snow. Why? Last time it was mostly sleet because it was an overrunning event which of course means a warmer moist layer that is elevated above colder dry air.

This time around, any precip that falls will be as a result of gulf effect showers. It is for the same reason that lake effect snow occurs on the great lakes, very cold air aloft moving over the relatively warm water along with short wave energy rotating around the deep trough creates instability and thus showers.
This situation means no elevated warm layer present to cause sleet or rain at temps near freezing. In fact, the temperatures will be so cold just above the surface that it would likely only take temps as low as 35 to 38 to start seeing snow.

However what I doubt is the ability for temps to be that cold near the coast. If it was a calm clear night with very dry air, it seems more reasonable. However throw in clouds and moisture moving over warm waters along with a northwest flow and temps any colder than 42 seems very low in coastal regions.

If this same pattern had occurred into our area in January of the 2010 winter. I would actually argue that accumulating snow would be a reasonable forecast.


That winter was ideal to get snow, and snow accumulation in Central Florida because it was an extremely cold winter. The normally well insulating warm water dipped down well into the 40's from constant cold outbreaks. Unfortunately the event that brought sleet was the type of event we didn't want, warm overrunning.



In this case, I don't see any snow happening unless there are a few more substantial showers that can put down enough precip to bring temps near the surface a lot colder from both cold air descending and from evaporative cooling.

Otherwise the warm gulf waters to me will not allow any snow. Of course, the possibility does exist a few more substantial showers will popup.

Its fun to talk about for sure but even though the GFS keeps showing snow almost ever model run I'd say the chance is still no more than 5% that anyone will see snow.

Sadly if any snow happens in my hometown I won't be there to see experience it :(


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
now Northern and Northeastern Australia have to be aware for early March


This is much further out than 2 weeks



Possible triplets of tropical lows.



That's all I can see.
Quoting Jedkins01:



If any frozen precip of any kind does manage to fall this time around in Florida it will for sure be snow. Why? Last time it was mostly sleet because it was an overrunning event which of course means a warmer moist layer that is elevated above colder dry air.

This time around, any precip that falls will be as a result of gulf effect showers. It is for the same reason that lake effect snow occurs on the great lakes, very cold air aloft moving over the relatively warm water along with short wave energy rotating around the deep trough creates instability and thus showers.
This situation means no elevated warm layer present to cause sleet or rain at temps near freezing. In fact, the temperatures will be so cold just above the surface that it would likely only take temps as low as 35 to 38 to start seeing snow.

However what I doubt is the ability for temps to be that cold near the coast. If it was a calm clear night with very dry air, it seems more reasonable. However throw in clouds and moisture moving over warm waters along with a northwest flow and temps any colder than 42 seems very low in coastal regions.

If this same pattern had occurred into our area in January of the 2010 winter. I would actually argue that accumulating snow would be a reasonable forecast.


That winter was ideal to get snow, and snow accumulation in Central Florida because it was an extremely cold winter. The normally well insulating warm water dipped down well into the 40's from constant cold outbreaks. Unfortunately the event that brought sleet was the type of event we didn't want, warm overrunning.



In this case, I don't see any snow happening unless there are a few more substantial showers that can put down enough precip to bring temps near the surface a lot colder from both cold air descending and from evaporative cooling.

Otherwise the warm gulf waters to me will not allow any snow. Of course, the possibility does exist a few more substantial showers will popup.

Its fun to talk about for sure but even though the GFS keeps showing snow almost ever model run I'd say the chance is still no more than 5% that anyone will see snow.

Sadly if any snow happens in my hometown I won't be there to see experience it :(





Brooksville low suppose to be right around 32-36 Saturday night. Fingers crossed
5.1 earthquake off the Oregon coast:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's my thinking regarding temperatures during March for the United States:

The blocking pattern were currently in should promote generally cooler-than-average temperatures across a large part of the United States during the first part of March, as the CPC indicates in their forecast. However, by the middle portion of the month, a big pattern change and warm up is expected to occur. This warm up should be quite substantial according to model depictions, making it hard for the month to average below average. For the North, however, the brunt of the rise in temperatures will stay away, and cold air the first part of the month should mean a below average March overall.

Could be wrong.

I'd say you're probably on the right track. This month will go down somewhere in the middle of the pack so far as Februarys go; it's been a pretty chilly one, and one of the coolest in the U.S. since late in 2011. (It should be noted, however, that even with the current cool weather, record highs still outnumber record lows for the year to date by 6,142 to 2,859, or 2.15:1. And while the U.S. has been cool, many other areas around the world--namely northern Europe, and much of Central/South America--have been mostly at or above normal, so globally, February should continue the trend we've seen.)

Anyway, the CPC's one-month (March) and three-month (March/April/May) temperature outlooks:

cpc

cpc
Snow in Florida...not so rare.. Just for latitude proposes...

New Orleans in 2008 got 5" from this
Storm totals ended up being crazy high for Tallahassee. This area saw between 10 and 12 inches of rain from Friday into early Tuesday AM!

That should put a big dent in the drought :)

The grass is already greener out back.
Quoting AussieStorm:


This is much further out than 2 weeks



Possible triplets of tropical lows.



That's all I can see.


the top picture...where is the storm moving to?
would be dangerous if it moves westwards...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


the top picture...where is the storm moving to?
would be dangerous if it moves westwards...

Moves east. Seem's the pattern this year. Some years east some years west. This year seems to be an east moving year.
153. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Snow in Florida...not so rare..

New Orleans in 2008 got 5" from this


Careful!!
Did you imply New Orleans was in Florida ? You will be in alot of folks bad books , Both Florida and Louisiana...

LOL

154. beell
Quoting TheGreatHodag:


This could be the big kicker regardless of snow/rain totals. And is the wind here being measured in MPH or KPH?


Oooh, I'll take this one!
Knots.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Snow in Florida...not so rare..

New Orleans in 2008 got 5" from this

New Orleans is not Florida though. As Jedkins mentioned earlier, the state is nearly surrounded by insulating warm ocean waters while New Orleans is not. It takes a very special type of event to get snow to fall along the peninsula of Florida.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Moves east. Seem's the pattern this year. Some years east some years west. This year seems to be an east moving year.


I see, fortunate Eastern Australia this year then (unlike when Yasi came around from the east that season) ...some of those Islands there to the east of the storm are densely populated if I'm not mistaken....
Quoting robintampabay:



Brooksville low suppose to be right around 32-36 Saturday night. Fingers crossed



If any precip manages to reach your region the Brooksville area would have the highest shot at seeing snow. Not just because of colder lows but also higher elevation and not much marine influence.
Most of Pinellas is influenced by the water and ranges from a few feet in elevation to near 20 ft at the greatest. Much of the Brooksville area rises 200 to 250 ft in elevation.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

New Orleans is not Florida though. As Jedkins mentioned earlier, the state is nearly surrounded by insulating warm ocean waters while New Orleans is not. It takes a very special type of event to get snow to fall along the peninsula of Florida.


Quoting VR46L:


Careful!!
Did you imply New Orleans was in Florida You will be in alot of folks bad books , Both Florida and Louisiana...

LOL



I did not make my point clear..

I was going ONLY as for latitude... I know there are much more things involved for this event to come to work together for this to happen over there in Flo.

It sounded like that was an offensive comparison for you VR46L by the way... did I misunderstand?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I see, fortunate Eastern Australia this year then (unlike when Yasi came around from the east that season) ...some of those Islands there to the east of the storm are densely populated if I'm not mistaken....

Some of those islands are but that was end of next month so I might not happen at all.

Police chase in Arizona
Quoting AussieStorm:

Some of those islands are but that was end of next month so I might not happen at all.

Police chase in Arizona


lol..off road down the hill. That was not such a good road to play around on...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


lol..off road down the hill. That was not such a good road to play around on...

Nope. You guys love watching these police chases. #weird
@StuRap Stu Rapley
Turns out cyclones tend to drop a bit of water, Yarrie Station, #TCrusty

@ Chaser97

Did you have school today, you mentioned many schools around your area were shut, yours?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ Chaser97

Did you have school today, you mentioned many schools around your area were shut, yours?

Sadly, I had school today. Over 650 school closings today, but my school district felt like staying open.
Quoting AussieStorm:
@StuRap Stu Rapley
Turns out cyclones tend to drop a bit of water, Yarrie Station, #TCrusty



Hi Aussie. Cyclones do that normally and this is another excample as here in PR when Hortense moved thru, around 23 inches of rain fell in the eastern part of the island causing massive flooding. Here is the report.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Aussie. Cyclones do that normally and this is another excample as here in PR when Hortense moved thru, around 23 inches of rain fell in the eastern part of the island causing massive flooding. Here is the report.

Link


look at this, I know it's non sequitur



Quoting AussieStorm:

It was getting sheared big time from Rusty's outflow, now that Rusty has moved away, TD 18 could get it's act together.


Yes gosh...can just see the shear in the sat images you posted!
Quoting AussieStorm:
@StuRap Stu Rapley
Turns out cyclones tend to drop a bit of water, Yarrie Station, #TCrusty

Funy that the water is a "rusty" color.lol.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


look at this, I know it's non sequitur





100 inches? That is an insane!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Aussie. Cyclones do that normally and this is another excample as here in PR when Hortense moved thru, around 23 inches of rain fell in the eastern part of the island causing massive flooding. Here is the report.

Link


I think it was a bit of a tongue in cheek comment with that photo.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:




I did not make my point clear..

I was going ONLY as for latitude... I know there are much more things involved for this event to come to work together for this to happen over there in Flo.

It sounded like that was an offensive comparison for you VR46L by the way... did I misunderstand?


I saw what you meant...but also meaning, only could compare with N FL though I reckon too?
Good afternoon, folks. If anyone missed it with the advent of the new blog, I finished my initial report on Hurricane Leslie.
Quoting Jedkins01:


100 inches? That is an insane!

it is...but it happened apparently.. 50 years ago though
Quoting Jedkins01:


100 inches? That is an insane!

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lpf451rjiN1qgh2f2. gif
Well if Tampa does see flurries this weekend I won't be there to see it lol...I also think the water temperatures are way too warm and I don't see it getting cold enough in Tampa/St. Pete for Snow (and I'm not just
saying that because I wouldn't be there to see it if it did snow).

I have been watching each GFS model run with a combination of amazement and skepticism. Right now,
skepticism is winning out.
Quoting Jedkins01:


100 inches? That is an insane!



Link

There's a reason Hurricane Flora is considered the wettest known tropical cyclone to hit Haiti. The unimaginable amount of rain that fell on the country is also why Flora is known to be one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes on record; over 7100 were killed, the fifth or sixth deadliest on record.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

it is...but it happened apparently.. 50 years ago though

But if it happened now, it might be 200inches due to global warning.
Magnetic filament bigger than Jupiter came out of the sun today.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Sadly, I had school today. Over 650 school closings today, but my school district felt like staying open.
wow! I would really hate being in the only school that didn`t close.I would imagine the other 650 schools why being in class and the luck they have.
I know I've been doing my TCRs in order so far, but I think I'll just save Sandy for last, for obvious reasons.
After doing some research, there have only been a handful of tropical cyclones across the world, during the entirety of recorded history, to produce more rainfall than Hurricane Flora.

The November 1909 Greater Antilles hurricane produced a maximum rainfall total near 135 inches on Jamaica.



Typhoon Morakot, just recently in 2009, produced 120.5 inches of rain in Alishan, Chiayi.



And finally, Super Typhoon Carla in 1967 produced 108.21 inches of rain in Hsin-Liao.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
8:52 AM WST February 28 2013
=======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (982 hPa) located at 21.1S 120.4E or 65 km east of Marble Bar and 260 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
10 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Tropical Cyclone Rusty continues to weaken as it moves in a south to southeasterly direction over the east Pilbara. Rusty is expected to weaken below cyclone strength during the day.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 65 knots are possible near the center, though these maximum winds will ease during the day. Gales may extend to Nullagine this morning and possibly to Newman during the afternoon before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for Inland areas of the eastern Pilbara, northeastern Gascoyne and adjacent parts of the Interior, including Nullagine and Newman.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 23.4S 120.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 25.9S 120.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 31.0S 121.5E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: xx xx - xx

Additional Information
=======================
Final intensity estimate has been lowered to 45 knots 10-min mean wind based on a standard weakening rate over land.

Over the last few hours the system has been moving in a south to southeasterly direction. Tropical Cyclone Rusty will continue to weaken as it moves further inland today and is expected to be below cyclone intensity during Thursday afternoon.

Heavy rain has become confined to areas south of the low level circulation center with strongest winds also expected to be on the southern side under the deeper convection.

Major flooding in the De Grey remains a concern. Significant flooding is also possible in the Upper Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams, though a strong gradient in rainfall is likely to the west of the track.
Russian meteor - prelim orbit analysis

I know a link to this study was posted yesterday but it was not to the actual source (I think it probably came from the BBC). I've had this link for a while - deciding to post this eve.

Link

Rock me mamma ... (Bob Dylan)
Link

-good eve
Quoting Skyepony:
Magnetic filament bigger than Jupiter came out of the sun today.


Jupiter - Sun - Earth - ps - sunspots get numbers instead of names ;>)

Link
I am wondering about somethng. I list foreclosures in Ky. We have to have vacant homes winterized by Oct 1. If Fl gets this cold weather that is cold enough for snow,will tbey have to quickly winterize vacant homes with no heat?
Hey everyone! Take advantage of Jeff's generosity and grab a 1 year membership here free!!
Dunno how to link but just copy paste it
http://www.southernsavers.com/2013/02/weather-und erground-free-1-year-membership/#more-159728

NASA has released the first full year of validated ocean surface salinity data from the agency's Aquarius instrument aboard the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft. The data cover the period from Dec. 2011 through Dec. 2012. Red colors represent areas of high salinity, while blue shades represent areas of low salinity. Among the prominent salinity features visible in this view are the large area of highly saline water across the North Atlantic. This area, the saltiest anywhere in the open ocean, is analogous to deserts on land, where little rainfall and much evaporation occur. Aquarius is a focused effort to measure ocean surface salinity and will provide the global view of salinity variability needed for climate studies. The mission is a collaboration between NASA and the Space Agency of Argentina (Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales). Image credit: NASA/GSFC/JPL-Caltech - See more at:
Hey Skye how have you been? Just put the garden down last weekend and getting the first few signs of my lettuce... Hope the cold doesnt ruin it!
Great news! In a statement on Wednesday night, Shell said it would pause its exploration drilling activity for 2013 in Alaska's Beaufort and Chukchi Seas to prepare equipment and plans for a resumption of activity at a later stage. It did not specify a likely resumption date.

As well as damage to the Kulluk, Shell faced another setback when the US Coast Guard found regulatory violations, including fire hazards, on its other Arctic drilling rig, the Noble Discoverer. These have been passed to the US Department of Justice to consider possible penalties.



Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Hey Skye how have you been? Just put the garden down last weekend and getting the first few signs of my lettuce... Hope the cold doesnt ruin it!


Very well~ Had a mess of lettuce & garden for dinner. It should be fine. Plant them before the cold snap, they need that cold to germinate.
Good to know. They are already down. Thanks!
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Hey everyone! Take advantage of Jeff's generosity and grab a 1 year membership here free!!
Dunno how to link but just copy paste it
http://www.southernsavers.com/2013/02/weather-und erground-free-1-year-membership/#more-159728


Actually worked, awesome, thanks Wunderground!

Free One Year Membership
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Hey everyone! Take advantage of Jeff's generosity and grab a 1 year membership here free!!
Dunno how to link but just copy paste it
http://www.southernsavers.com/2013/02/weather-und erground-free-1-year-membership/#more-159728


It seems like that offer is only available to new members not current members.
Quoting Skyepony:

NASA has released the first full year of validated ocean surface salinity data from the agency's Aquarius instrument aboard the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft. The data cover the period from Dec. 2011 through Dec. 2012. Red colors represent areas of high salinity, while blue shades represent areas of low salinity. Among the prominent salinity features visible in this view are the large area of highly saline water across the North Atlantic. This area, the saltiest anywhere in the open ocean, is analogous to deserts on land, where little rainfall and much evaporation occur. Aquarius is a focused effort to measure ocean surface salinity and will provide the global view of salinity variability needed for climate studies. The mission is a collaboration between NASA and the Space Agency of Argentina (Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales). Image credit: NASA/GSFC/JPL-Caltech - See more at:


Interesting. I just recently found out the ocean is not "flat" due to gravity, and now I find out it does not have uniform "salty".

Quoting AussieStorm:


It seems like that offer is only available to new members not current members.

Make sure you use caps on the letters, worked fine for me and I have never paid! Hope it works!
Quoting AussieStorm:


It seems like that offer is only available to new members not current members.


Yeah it worked for me, and I've been here since 2006
Quoting 1911maker:


Interesting. I just recently found out the ocean is not "flat" due to gravity, and now I find out it does not have uniform "salty".



It seems fairly obvious to me that the oceans couldn't be flat, since the earth is spherical :p
Quoting Skyepony:

NASA has released the first full year of validated ocean surface salinity data from the agency's Aquarius instrument aboard the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft. The data cover the period from Dec. 2011 through Dec. 2012. Red colors represent areas of high salinity, while blue shades represent areas of low salinity. Among the prominent salinity features visible in this view are the large area of highly saline water across the North Atlantic. This area, the saltiest anywhere in the open ocean, is analogous to deserts on land, where little rainfall and much evaporation occur. Aquarius is a focused effort to measure ocean surface salinity and will provide the global view of salinity variability needed for climate studies. The mission is a collaboration between NASA and the Space Agency of Argentina (Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales). Image credit: NASA/GSFC/JPL-Caltech - See more at:



Good stuff Sky..
Thought I would add the YouTube video link explaining this..
It's in small print, so I took the initiative..

Link
Quoting docrod:
Russian meteor - prelim orbit analysis

I know a link to this study was posted yesterday but it was not to the actual source (I think it probably came from the BBC). I've had this link for a while - deciding to post this eve.

Link

Rock me mamma ... (Bob Dylan)
Link

-good eve


Saw that movie when it first came out.
Quoting tornadodude:


It seems fairly obvious to me that the oceans couldn't be flat, since the earth is spherical :p


ok, a sphere with bumps on it, versus a smooth sphere. :)

heck yeah! no more ads! and long radar loops! (although you can cheat on the radar loops by modifying the "number of frames" input in the url but thanks! =p)

Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Hey everyone! Take advantage of Jeff's generosity and grab a 1 year membership here free!!
Dunno how to link but just copy paste it
http://www.southernsavers.com/2013/02/weather-und erground-free-1-year-membership/#more-159728


Link

Rain on the sun

By Tom Yulsman | February 27, 2013 2:40 pm

NASA recently released this video of a phenomenon called “coronal rain.” It is astonishingly beautiful, and the scale of it is simply mind-boggling.

If you haven’t already seen it elsewhere (it has been making the rounds on Youtube), it’s well worth stopping what you’re doing and taking a look.

Obviously, coronal rain isn’t the liquid stuff that we experience here on Earth. Instead of water, it consists of plasma in the sun’s corona.

Because plasma is electrically conductive, it responds strongly to magnetic fields. And in the case of coronal rain, the plasma cools, condenses and aligns along solar magnetic field lines. This is what produced the incredible filamentary looping structures seen in the video.


According to NASA, this event was particularly noteworthy. Here’s an excerpt from the agency’s description of what happened:

Eruptive events on the sun can be wildly different. Some come just with a solar flare, some with an additional ejection of solar material called a coronal mass ejection (CME), and some with complex moving structures in association with changes in magnetic field lines that loop up into the sun’s atmosphere, the corona.

On July 19, 2012, an eruption occurred on the sun that produced all three. A moderately powerful solar flare exploded on the sun’s lower right limb, sending out light and radiation. Next came a CME, which shot off to the right out into space. And then, the sun treated viewers to one of its dazzling magnetic displays – a phenomenon known as coronal rain.
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
heck yeah! no more ads! and long radar loops! (although you can cheat on the radar loops by modifying the "number of frames" input in the url but thanks! =p)



Link


You can also use Adblock to get rid of the ads. >_>
Quoting KoritheMan:


You can also use Adblock to get rid of the ads. >_>

I'm a paying member, but I still have Adblock on Firefox and Chrome. Only problem with Adblock, you can't see any survey that WU has(like the naming winter storm one).
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm a paying member, but I still have Adblock on Firefox and Chrome. Only problem with Adblock, you can't see any survey that WU has(like the naming winter storm one).


Right, yeah. There's that little nuisance.
Quoting AussieStorm:

But if it happened now, it might be 200inches due to global warning.


true Aussie. I'll call it climate change by the way
Well I can finally let my photoshop rest tonight... since there is no much significant weather to focus on...Not worrying about Interior New England snow.
Miami NWS Disco

...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...THE AREA OF RAIN IS MOVING FAST AND IS EXITING THE EAST
COAST AT THIS TIME. WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO SHOW
A DRY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND LOWER POPS TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON THU.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS POISED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA TO OVER FLORIDA
BY MON-TUE. NW WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE HIGH SETTLES OVER
FLORIDA, RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERMAL FIELDS OFF THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST 30S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY MONDAY MORNING...AND
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A COLD TUE MORNING AS WELL AS THE
HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS AS
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS SHOWS 30S WITH A THREAT OF A FREEZE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR (WITH THE TYPICAL W-SW AREAS OF THE LAKE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE). THE COLDEST TEMPS ACROSS THE METRO EAST AND WEST
COAST LOCALES IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S. THIS WILL BE THE MOST
PROLONGED STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER THIS WINTER SEASON WITH 3-4 DAYS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S!

For West Palm Beach...

@ Aussie

This is what I mean by recreating it...


my version...notice I use MPH instead of KT.
I had to intentionally make some errors converting some knot readings into mph in order to make them fit the scale... I was working on it earlier this afternoon.
Im also adding it into my blog...



click on it for larger size.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ Aussie

This is what I mean by recreating it...


my version...notice I use MPH instead of KT.
I had to intentionally make some errors converting some knot readings into mph in order to make them fit the scale... I was working on it earlier this afternoon.
Im also adding it into my blog...



click on it for larger size.


You need to add a faint line from each mph section so it make it easier to read as you can see by the one I have. Also it's not ABM it's BOM(Bureau of Meteorology) or if you want ABOM (Australian Bureau of Meteorology). Also you could use a world map as background as it is a Tropical Cyclone Classification table from world wide basins.

All in all, nice job.
Quoting AussieStorm:


You need to add a faint line from each mph section so it make it easier to read. Also it's not ABM it's BOM(Bureau of Meteorology) or if you want ABOM (Australian Bureau of Meteorology)


what do you mean by faint line?

True, I can change that map..
6.1 quake near Port Vila, Vanuatu

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #40
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
11:42 AM WST February 28 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (987 hPa) located at 21.7S 120.5E or 100 km southeast of Marble Bar and 200 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty continues to weaken as it moves in a south to southeasterly direction over the inland east Pilbara. Rusty is expected to weaken below cyclone strength during Thursday afternoon.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 50 knots are possible. Gales may affect Nullagine until mid afternoon, and possibly reach Newman before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity.

MAJOR FLOODING is occuring in the De Grey catchment, and heavy rainfall is likely to continue.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
The Cyclone WARNING for Marble Bar has been cancelled
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ Aussie

This is what I mean by recreating it...


my version...notice I use MPH instead of KT.
I had to intentionally make some errors converting some knot readings into mph in order to make them fit the scale... I was working on it earlier this afternoon.
Im also adding it into my blog...



click on it for larger size.


might want to change the Fiji Meteorological Services column.

Here are their tropical cyclone intensity, it similar to Bureau of Meteorology now
I just wrote a new blog entry about South Atlantic cyclones if anyone is up now and wants to read it. I'll say it again tomorrow for day people.

PS It may take a while to load because i have plenty of pictures on it :p
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


might want to change the Fiji Meteorological Services column.

Here are their tropical cyclone intensity, it similar to Bureau of Meteorology now


ohh.. I wasn't aware of it... I'll have all changes by tomorrow...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what do you mean by faint line?

True, I can change that map..

you have lat and long of the map in the background, makes it confusing.
Quoting AussieStorm:

you have lat and long of the map in the background, makes it confusing.


I can hardly see that through... It would look different when I zoom out the map for the whole world
We are expected to have highs struggling to hit 50 this weekend with nights well into the 20's with a hard freeze possible, Spring Break can't come soon enough! I'm done with that kind of cold, lol.
Quoting Jedkins01:



If any precip manages to reach your region the Brooksville area would have the highest shot at seeing snow. Not just because of colder lows but also higher elevation and not much marine influence.
Most of Pinellas is influenced by the water and ranges from a few feet in elevation to near 20 ft at the greatest. Much of the Brooksville area rises 200 to 250 ft in elevation.


Even as small as it is (second smallest county in Florida in land area) and in spite of being a peninsula surrounded by water.. The highest elevation in Pinellas County is around 110' ASL, near the intersection of State Road 580 and Countryside Boulevard in the Palm Harbor area. It is also surprisingly hilly in that North Pinellas County region.

Brooksville on the other hand looks very un-Florida like, at least in terms of commonly held stereotypes of what Florida is supposed to look like. It is heavily forested with huge pine trees and deciduous trees and yes, it is very hilly. It is also mostly a rural area with nary a tall, stucco-sided condominium building in sight!
I'll be posting this again tomorrow, but if anyone's still up, here's my initial report on Hurricane Michael. If I'm gonna do this by May best track and all, I'm gonna have to seriously get busy. I don't quit, though!
Quoting Jedkins01:
We are expected to have highs struggling to hit 50 this weekend with nights well into the 20's with a hard freeze possible, Spring Break can't come soon enough! I'm done with that kind of cold, lol.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it a bit colder than that in Tally, especially by Monday morning.

The official NWS forecast for the Tampa Bay area for Saturday, Sunday and Monday is still annoyingly too warm, predicting low 60s for highs each day and low 40s for lows. I would not be surprised if it did not even hit 50F around here on at least one of those days.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I can hardly see that through... It would look different when I zoom out the map for the whole world


Ok, Lets wait till the next one.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Ok, Lets wait till the next one.


alright... I'm out. Gnight people
dead blog
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #41
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER RUSTY (10U)
2:09 PM WST February 28 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Rusty (991 hPa) located at 22.0S 120.6E or 125 km southeast of Marble Bar and 175 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Ex Tropical Cyclone Rusty has weakened below cyclone strength.

No Further Cyclone Advices are expected to be issued for this system.
Morning everyone!

Evening Aussie!


Quoting Skyepony:

NASA has released the first full year of validated ocean surface salinity data from the agency's Aquarius instrument aboard the Aquarius/SAC-D spacecraft. The data cover the period from Dec. 2011 through Dec. 2012. Red colors represent areas of high salinity, while blue shades represent areas of low salinity. Among the prominent salinity features visible in this view are the large area of highly saline water across the North Atlantic. This area, the saltiest anywhere in the open ocean, is analogous to deserts on land, where little rainfall and much evaporation occur. Aquarius is a focused effort to measure ocean surface salinity and will provide the global view of salinity variability needed for climate studies. The mission is a collaboration between NASA and the Space Agency of Argentina (Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales). Image credit: NASA/GSFC/JPL-Caltech - See more at:


How interesting.. notice the dark red spot just north of Cuba? Seems to me, someone has this very salty water figured out, this is near where Morton Salt has salt works on Inagua Island.
Quoting geepy86:
dead blog

Well, I wasn't going to stay here and talk to myself, That's the 1st sign of insanity.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning everyone!

Evening Aussie!


Good Evening mate!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, I wasn't going to stay here and talk to myself, That's the 1st sign of insanity.

Good Evening mate!


I talk to myself all the time. Am I insane?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I talk to myself all the time. Am I insane?


Sometimes, that's the only way to have an intelligent conversation...

Mornin' Kori!

Good to see you mate, hope you are rested, I'm off to pick some shrimp for a few hours, y'all have a great morning/evening!
Quoting KoritheMan:


I talk to myself all the time. Am I insane?

No comment. LOL
Quoting indianrivguy:


Sometimes, that's the only way to have an intelligent conversation...

Mornin' Kori!

Good to see you mate, hope you are rested, I'm off to pick some shrimp for a few hours, y'all have a great morning/evening!

That's true, and you always get the answer your wanting.
Tracy Vo ‏@Tracy_Vo
Pardoo after #TCRusty

Good morning. The dry weather that the NE Caribbean islands have been thru for the past weeks will end starting on Monday as a cold front arrives.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST THU FEB 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS RIDGE ALOFT IS
SUSTAINING A DRY AIR MASS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL PERSIST NEAR 850 MB THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS USVI AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 28/06Z GFS-SJU FORECAST. LLVL WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ESTABLISH ON MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES BY MID-WEEK AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE ISLANDS. OVERALL...EXPECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJSJ 28/00Z INDICATED AN EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
2OK FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...LINGERING NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SWELLS SUBSIDE. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE NNW SWELL FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY DUE TO DRY FUELS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LESSENING THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT BUT STILL PRETTY DRY.
A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 73 88 73 / 0 0 0 0
STT 84 72 84 71 / 0 10 10 0
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 40 degrees here and should warm up to 58. But, no rain in the forecast! Maybe we'll get to dry up a little. Love the rain, but would love to get the kids out at recess.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: yogurt, French toast, bacon and fresh fruit. Enjoy.
Good Morning Folks!.. the Blogs COFFEE IS PERKED FOR WHEN YOU GET HERE..ENJOY,HAVE A GREAT DAY EVERYOEN
Flurries to I-10 Sat morn!

Mobbile NWS this Morning.


THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY DRY SYSTEM...AND ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WILL THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO A SQUEEZE OUT ALL
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES. INTRODUCED THE FLURRIES FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME AS FAR SOUTH AS I-10...AS TEMPERATURES START OUT IN THE LOWER
30S AND STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S BY NOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PROBLEMS WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. HISTORICALLY THE MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE TOO WARM WHEN WE HAVE A COMBINATION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION UNDER A CLOUD DECK...SO WENT 4 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ Aussie

This is what I mean by recreating it...


my version...notice I use MPH instead of KT.
I had to intentionally make some errors converting some knot readings into mph in order to make them fit the scale... I was working on it earlier this afternoon.
Im also adding it into my blog...



click on it for larger size.


Seems to me it'd be best to list multiple systems of measurement. KT, MPH, KMH, and M/S should cover just about everyone.
So on the 00Z is that snow in WPB???
Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie, have a great Friday.
249. MahFL
Quoting VR46L:


I imagine bison would be a tough version of beef...


Bison is not tough at all, and it has lower fat and colesterol than beef. It also tastes almost the same.
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's true, and you always get the answer your wanting.


Except when you're terribly indecisive and come up with multiple answers all the time!
Good Morning All..
Going to be a beautiful day..
Surf is rough though..

Earth Science Image of the day


Saturn and Five of its Moons - February 28, 2013



Photographer: John Chumack;
Summary Authors: John Chumack; Jim Foster

The image above showing softly colored Saturn and five of its moons was taken in the early hours of February 9, 2013, from my backyard in Dayton, Ohio. Despite the brutally cold conditions, I managed to get several shots of the Ringed Planet plus Titan, Tethys, Enceladus, Mimas, and Dione. To give a sense of Saturns immense size, Titan with a diameter of roughly 3,200 mi (5,150 km) is the second largest moon in the solar system and is even bigger than Mercury %u2013 having a diameter of approximately 3,032 mi or (4,878 km). Saturn has over 60 moons, 53 are named.
Astronomy Picture of the Day

Snow Moon for a Snowy Planet - 2013 February 28



Explanation: The alarmingly tall inhabitants of this small, snowy planet cast long shadows in bright moonlight. Of course, the snowy planet is actually planet Earth and the wide-angle mosaic, shown as a little planet projection, was recorded on February 25 during the long northern night of the Full Snow Moon. The second brightest celestial beacon is Jupiter, on the right above the little planet's horizon. Lights near Östersund, Sweden glow along the horizon, surrounding the snow covered lake Storsjön. The photographer reports that the journey out onto the frozen lake by sled to capture the evocative Full Snow Moon scene was accompanied by ice sounds, biting cold, and a moonlit mist.
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Image of the day

A Whale Rises - February 28, 2013



On a 2012 research cruise in Antarctica, WHOI postdoctoral scientist Peter Kimball helped use the robotic vehicle Jaguar to map the underside of the ice. But the trip was memorable for more than just their success in a harsh environment: "We were stuck in heavy pack ice for nearly two weeks," recalls Kimball. "We couldn't see any open water around the ship, and the ice was just too thick for the ship to break. While we were stuck, this magnificent minke whale broke through a few centimeters of ice in a small lead and was breathing at the hole, right near our ship, for an entire day."
pcola57, thank you very much for posting those wonderful immages! I look forward to them every day :)
Quoting FtMyersgal:
pcola57, thank you very much for posting those wonderful immages! I look forward to them every day :)


I also look forward to them FtMyersgal..
It's amazing and I love it..
TY.. :)
259. VR46L
Good Morning Folks !!

Pcola Beautiful Images .... Included the Map of the glorious High Pressure over my neck of the woods LOL !!
Sure is making early spring wonderful here !!!



Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning Folks !!

Pcola Beautiful Images .... Included the Map of the glorious High Pressure over my neck of the woods LOL !!
Sure is making early spring wonderful here !!!





TY VR46L..

Question for you this am VR46L..
Does that High pressure have a name?
261. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


TY VR46L..

Question for you this am VR46L..
Does that High pressure have a name?


I am checking now , Here in Ireland we dont really refer to them by name its more a Continental Europe thing .. Checked its name Fenne



Here I will enclose the link to the site too

adopt-a-vortex


262. VR46L
Bit of a mixed bag for the US today but nothing considered severe but I guess people where heavy snow is falling would disagree

Where is hurricane season when you need it?.I hope we won't have to be tracking a major or storm this year running into a huge metropolitan area like Sandy did.
Drought Monitor Analysis Map released this morning..
Definite improvement for specific areas..



Last weeks Analysis Map for comparison..

59 in WPB at 9:30 and no sun!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
59 in WPB at 9:30 and no sun!


It's 58° here in Fort Myers and overcast. No sun here either
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Flurries to I-10 Sat morn!

Mobbile NWS this Morning.


THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY DRY SYSTEM...AND ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WILL THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO A SQUEEZE OUT ALL
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES. INTRODUCED THE FLURRIES FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME AS FAR SOUTH AS I-10...AS TEMPERATURES START OUT IN THE LOWER
30S AND STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S BY NOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PROBLEMS WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. HISTORICALLY THE MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE TOO WARM WHEN WE HAVE A COMBINATION OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION UNDER A CLOUD DECK...SO WENT 4 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY.


Wonder if we might see some near Satsuma,Al about 16 miles out of Mobile? I would love it.

Sheri
Ah the admin.Trying to find each and every excuss to try and stop me from uploading new avatars.They have won!.For now! but I'll be back with more..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ah the admin.Trying to find each and every excuss to try and stop me from uploading new avatars.They have won!.For now! but I'll be back with more..


Why don't they like your avatars? You've always had good ones.

sheri
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ah the admin.Trying to find each and every excuss to try and stop me from uploading new avatars.They have won!.For now! but I'll be back with more..


Why dont they like your avatars?
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Why don't they like your avatars? You've always had good ones.

sheri
I'm not to sure.They keep talking about playgerizing and copy righting and that their not "site appropiate".I mean I know this is a weather/climate site.But can we at least have some freedom to express our selfs in our Avi's?.My avatars are not offensive nor have they ever offended anyone.If my avatar is "playgerizing" and "copyrighting" then I guess almost half of the members on this site Avi's will also have to be taken down.But since they are "cartoonish" and don't deal with the everyday life and with natural disasters then they have to be taken down..
I'll share with you all a few photo's that have come in from Port Hedland and Pardoo.

Port Hedland

@Tracy_Vo Tracy Vo
Minimal damage in Port Hedland. A few fallen trees and minor flooding. #TCRusty


@Tracy_Vo Tracy Vo
Driver didn't get far trying to get to Pardoo Station. The clean up after #TCRusty


@PeterFosterALP Peter Foster
#TCRusty Aftermath at Pardoo Station


@ThePilbaraLife Caitlin U'Ren
Built the homestead next to the river they said... #warrawagine #TCRusty


@ThePilbaraLife Caitlin U'Ren
#warrawagine #TCRusty #bigriver

The following photo's are courtesy of Pardoo Station, From Link


















Goodnight all. Stay warm Stay safe.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not to sure.They keep talking about playgerizing and copy righting and that their not "site appropiate".I mean I know this is a weather/climate site.But can we at least have some freedom to express our selfs in our Avi's?.My avatars are not offensive nor have they ever offended anyone.If my avatar is "playgerizing" and "copyrighting" then I guess almost half of the members on this site Avi's will also have to be taken down.But since they are "cartoonish" and don't deal with the everyday life and with natural disasters then they have to be taken down..


Thats bullcrap, half the avatars here are not weather-related.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Thats bullcrap, half the avatars here are not weather-related.
Exactly.I think that admin are trying to simply make a prime example out of people. The reason why I have such avatars is that it can be easy to spot my comments so I can easly go back and look at some things. I didn't want them to "blend" in with the others.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Exactly.I think that admin are trying to simply make a prime example out of people. The reason why I have such avatars is that it can be easy to spot my comments so I can easly go back and look at some things. I didn't want them to "blend" in with the others.


We should be able to express ourselves with our avatars.
I have a quick non-weather related question for anybody that knows.

Why did the United States raise the tariff on goods for trading with Europe in the late 1920s?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have a quick non-weather related question for anybody that knows.

Why did the United States raise the tariff on goods for trading with Europe in the late 1920s?


TA, does this have anything to do with the Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act?? :-/ I might be able to give you a link, and thats about it.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


We should be able to express ourselves with our avatars.
Avatars also make you stand out.That's how I became familiar with some bloggers on here.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Avatars also make you stand out.That's how I became familiar with some bloggers on here.


The only way I can read and see any of the comments that Aussie or Rob posts is through thier avatars. Thats the only reason I can catch thier posts! The same applies to you too wash! :-P
282. eddye
wundergirl 12 snow in south fla and tampa this weekend
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have a quick non-weather related question for anybody that knows.

Why did the United States raise the tariff on goods for trading with Europe in the late 1920s?


See wu mail
Quoting washingtonian115:
Avatars also make you stand out.That's how I became familiar with some bloggers on here.


That is why i chose this animated hurricane radar icon.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


That is why i chose this animated hurricane radar icon.


And I chose my flowers. :-P
286. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Avatars also make you stand out.That's how I became familiar with some bloggers on here.


I agree !! I would become less familiar with people if I cant recognise an avi and hundreds of hurricane avis are not going to stand out ... I would not like to lose my avi , it took me long enough to settle on one that I think represents me!
287. eddye
wundergirl 12 mail me
Quoting eddye:
wundergirl 12 snow in south fla and tampa this weekend


Eddye the 00Z run from this morning backed off snow for Florida for this weekend.
Quoting VR46L:


I agree !! I would become less familiar with people if I cant recognise an avi and hundreds of hurricane avis are not going to stand out ... I would not like to lose my avi , it took me long enough to settle on one that I think represents me!


And I think it represents you quite well in fact! ;-) I can't seem to stick to one, so I change pretty quickly. lol
Quoting robintampabay:


Eddye the 00Z run from this morning backed off snow for Florida for this weekend.


Darn. :'-(
291. VR46L
Quoting WunderGirl12:


And I think it represents you quite well in fact! ;-) I can't seem to stick to one, so I change pretty quickly. lol


AH you young ones change your minds so much . But I like your floral avi. Shows a sweet cute nature, and a love of nature!!
292. eddye
robin does it still show very cold air four south fla
Quoting VR46L:


AH you young ones change your minds so much . But I like your floral avi. Shows a sweet cute nature, and a love of nature!!


Thanks VR46L! :-) I do LOVE nature, since it is part of us all.
Quoting eddye:
robin does it still show very cold air four south fla



Call me Rob, Low's of 40's south of I-4 50's south of I-75.
30's in my area in Brooksville
296. VR46L
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Thanks VR46L! :-) I do LOVE nature, since it is part of us all.


Yes it sure is !
I think its a love of nature that has people hanging at a weather blog !
Cant think of any other reason !


Quoting Grothar:


See wu mail
Greetings ancient one.
Quoting robintampabay:
30's in my area in Brooksville


How about Central Florida??
Quoting WunderGirl12:


How about Central Florida??


38-45 degrees
12Z is now coming out!!
Quoting robintampabay:


38-45 degrees


Merci Beaucoup. :-)
302. eddye
wow rob they really raised it because before they showed near davie low 40 and upper 30
Quoting VR46L:


I agree !! I would become less familiar with people if I cant recognise an avi and hundreds of hurricane avis are not going to stand out ... I would not like to lose my avi , it took me long enough to settle on one that I think represents me!
Agreed.
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings ancient one.


Hi, hy!
Quoting eddye:
wow rob they really raised it because before they showed near davie low 40 and upper 30


I don't doubt that it will change with the 12z run coming out soon.
I would definitely hate to lose my avatar. It is weather related...because if you see my avatar near where you live there is surely a hurricane coming!
307. eddye
rob so your saying it possible
Quoting DookiePBC:
I would definitely hate to lose my avatar. It is weather related...because if you see my avatar near where you live there is surely a hurricane coming!


LOL!!!
Quoting eddye:
rob so your saying it possible


Computer models only project, they do not tell you exactly what is going to happen. That can only be known once it happens. The models often disagree with one another, at least until we are well within the 48 hour time frame of the projected conditions. Even then there can be divergences.

Bear in mind too that the National Weather Service has never yet predicted any snow showers, snow flurries or even isolated snow flakes anywhere in Florida for this upcoming cold air outbreak. In fact, they have consistently painted it as more of a cool weather outbreak with predicted high and low temps well above the range projected by the GFS model. And that would not or will not change until within 48 hours of the projected time frame, if even then.

This is still a very inexact science and yet people understandably often get carried away with the forecast models, as if they were guaranteeing that a certain type of weather was going to unfold on a certain date and in any given location. I say that this is understandable because we have all been trained to read official pronouncements as something akin to gospel, even though this is far from true.
310. eddye
rob latest gfs
ehhh:

Does anyone know how much snow kansas city got from rocky?
Quoting eddye:
rob latest gfs


It is running now
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Computer models only project, they do not tell you exactly what is going to happen. That can only be known once it happens. The models often disagree with one another, at least until we are well within the 48 hour time frame of the projected conditions. Even then there can be divergences.

Bear in mind too that the National Weather Service has never yet predicted any snow showers, snow flurries or even isolated snow flakes anywhere in Florida for this upcoming cold air outbreak. In fact, they have consistently painted it as more of a cool weather outbreak with predicted high and low temps well above the range projected by the GFS model. And that would not or will not change until within 48 hours of the projected time frame, if even then.

This is still a very inexact science and yet people understandably often get carried away with the forecast models, as if they were guaranteeing that a certain type of weather was going to unfold on a certain date and in any given location. I say that this is understandable because we have all been trained to read official pronouncements as something akin to gospel, even though this is far from true.


While I do agree with your overall statement. The bolded part is false. The NWS in Mobile/Pensacola has officially included flurries Saturday morning in Florida counties north of I-10Link
75HR snow!
12z GFS back on board for snow in SE Texas. NWS has been mentioning it in the forecast discussion as of late. Nothing will stick to the ground but could see some flurries

39 hour:


42 hour:


45 hour:
Strange trough in 10 days:




But it has a wide warm sector:


I'm rooting for it to bring severe wx
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
75HR snow!



thats not snow



you overe re act way too march
319. eddye
i see snow 2
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Asperatus clouds in New Zealand:

322. VR46L
Quoting DookiePBC:
I would definitely hate to lose my avatar. It is weather related...because if you see my avatar near where you live there is surely a hurricane coming!


Yours is an exceptionally cool avi !!