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Category 1 Rusty Australia's strongest tropical cyclone of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:36 PM GMT on February 25, 2013

Australia's most dangerous tropical cyclone of the season so far is Tropical Cyclone Rusty, which has intensified to Category 1 strength and is lumbering southeastwards towards the northwestern coast of Australia at 6 mph. Rusty is expected to intensify further into a powerful Category 3 storm, and is predicted to make landfall near the town of Port Hedland (population 15,000) on Tuesday near 18 UTC (1 pm EST in the U.S.) Rusty formed on Saturday evening when westerly winds blowing near the Equator combined with easterly winds blowing south of New Guinea to create an unusually large tropical storm with a huge, 100-mile diameter cloud-free center. Ordinarily, a storm this large takes a long time to wind up, but Rusty intensified quickly, taking advantage of low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and near-record warm ocean temperatures of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F). It's not often that a tropical cyclone gets 31 - 32°C waters to feed off of; these temperature are about 1.5°C (2.7°F) warmer than average for this time of year. The hot ocean temperatures are largely due to Australia's hottest month in its history--the nationally-averaged monthly maximum temperature during January 2013 was the highest ever recorded. For the waters off the northwest Australian coast (15°S - 20°S, 115°E - 120°E), only two years since ocean temperature records began in 1960 have seen February ocean temperatures this warm (1.57°C above average in 2005, and 1.62°C above average in 1983.) The warm waters also extend to great depth; the tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in this region is over 90 kJ/cm**2, a value commonly associated with rapid intensification. With its slow movement, large circulation, and near-record warm waters to feed off, Rusty is going to dump some prodigious rains on the coast of northwestern Australia over the next few days. Radar out of Port Hedland shows very heavy rains already affecting the coast, and sustained wind as high as 38 mph have been observed there today.


Figure 1. Radar image of Rusty showing the large cloud-free center and an intense band of precipitation to it southwest moving ashore over the coast of Australia near Port Hedland. image credit: Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 0555 UTC on February 24, 2013 as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Rusty was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, and had an usually large cloud-free center more than 100 miles in diameter. Image credit: NASA.

Rusty the strongest tropical cyclone to affect Australia so far in 2013
It's been a rather quiet tropical cyclone season for Australia so far in 2012 - 2013; only two weak tropical storms have hit the country. Tropical Cyclone Peta hit the northwest coast on January 23 as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Peta dumped heavy rains of 4 - 10" (102 - 254 mm) in the Port Hedland area, very close to where Rusty is expected to make landfall. Peta's rains caused widespread flooding but no major damage. More serious were the rains from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Oswald, which hit the Queensland coast in Northeast Australia on January 21 as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. The remnants of Oswald pushed southwards along the coast and generated record rains that caused massive flooding in Queensland. Six people died and damage was estimated at $2.5 billion. The heaviest rains fell near Tully, where approximately 1 meter (39") of rain fell in 48 hours.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Oswald at 0425 UTC on January 21, 2013. Oswald hit Queensland, Australia as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ALMOST TO ME,MAYBE 9AM OR SO...........
Not in S FL we are going to get up to 90 day!!!
Quoting MahFL:


Pretty sure. I live in NE FL. Tornados are very rare, plus it's too cold....
Quoting MahFL:


Pretty sure. I live in NE FL. Tornados are very rare, plus it's too cold....

Temperatures in Florida are in the high 60s. Tornadoes can definitely occur in those, especially considering this:

504. MahFL
My companies distribution office in Kansas City has closed for the day due to snow/blizzards.
THE MOISTURE LADEN CLOUDS IN THE GULF ARE flying NORTHWARD WHEW
Quoting indianrivguy:
How to build an Ark


Good Morning IR , ALL..
I read the instructions, IR, and can assure you that was a labor of love.. :)

Were lucky here that squall line didn't hit doomcast 9 until East of us here..
Hope folks made out ok..
Plenty of rain..
I'll take it..
It's too much in places but some folks just won't learn and build in flood zones..
Whats worse is other folks actually buy the homes.
A cycle of stupidity..

Click HERE for Astronomy Image of the Day
Quoting MahFL:


Pretty sure. I live in NE FL. Tornados are very rare, plus it's too cold....


Hmmm. Don't get too complacent. Tuscaloosa isn't that far from you.

This from Wiki:

Tornadoes have been documented in every U.S. state (not including the non-state territories of Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and Puerto Rico) at least once since 1950, although some regions and states are hit by tornadoes far more than others.[15] For example, the average number of tornadoes to hit the states of Alaska, Rhode Island, and Vermont is less than one, while the state of Oklahoma receives an average of 52 tornadoes per year, and the state of Texas is hit with 126 tornadoes in an average year.[16] The state which has the highest number of tornadoes per unit area is Florida, although most of the tornadoes in Florida are weak tornadoes of EF0 or EF1 intensity.[17] A number of Florida's tornadoes occur along the edge of hurricanes that strike the state.[18] The state with the highest number of strong tornadoes per unit area is Oklahoma.[19] States such as Oklahoma and Kansas have much lower population densities than Florida, so tornadoes may go unreported.[20]
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
536 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-271000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
536 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND
NORTHERN TAMPA BAY REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AS THE LINE MOVES SOUTH OF
THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE STORMS WILL BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WATERS AHEAD OF AND DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE
HIGHEST IMPACTS ARE FORECASTED TO OCCUR DURING LOW
TIDE...LESSENING THE WOULD BE COASTAL FLOOD RISK.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
MARINE WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY
WILL TRANSLATE TO SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL HOLD UP OVERNIGHT...THEN AS WINDS BEGIN TO DROP OFF
WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL LIKEWISE SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Tuesday 26 February 2013



A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie
including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the
Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the
Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman, Telfer and adjacent Gascoyne district.

At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 3 was estimated to be
125 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
285 kilometres northeast of Karratha and
near stationary.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has been near stationary over the last few hours
but is expected to resume a southerly track towards the Pilbara coast early
Wednesday. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive
and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the centre
crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the centre. Wind gusts to
120 kilometres per hour have already been experienced in Port Hedland and
conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during Wednesday.

Gales are occuring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with
destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may
extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and
Millstream on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 165 kilometres per hour are
likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during
Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in
an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is
heavier than that associated with a typical system. Widespread very heavy
rainfall overnight and on Wednesday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the
De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue
catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also
likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre nears the
coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark
with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Pardoo, extending inland
to Marble Bar need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Bidyadanga and Wallal and between
Whim Creek and Mardie, including Karratha and extending to inland areas
including Nullagine and Millstream, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and
organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.3 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 957 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 27 February.

RE:Post#531..
Aussie I see TC Rusty is stationary..
Not good..
How do you convert from km to mph?
STC Rusty 9am WST



Now 9:10pm WST

Quoting pcola57:
RE:Post#531..
Aussie I see TC Rusty is stationary..
Not good..
How do you convert from km to mph?


X 5/8
Quoting pcola57:
RE:Post#531..
Aussie I see TC Rusty is stationary..
Not good..
How do you convert from km to mph?


Link
Quoting pcola57:
RE:Post#531..
Aussie I see TC Rusty is stationary..
Not good..
How do you convert from km to mph?

1mph = 1.6km/h
10mph = 16km/h

195km/h = 121.17mph = 105kts
As has been the case with the last several storm systems, central NC is starting the event with cold air damming causing freezing rain, and we should see thunderstorms later today! Stop the roller coaster; I'm ready to get off.
Quoting yonzabam:


X 5/8


Thanks very much yonzabam, Aussie, Geoff..
Bookmarked..
Much appreciate it..
With severe thunderstorm warnings for a 3rd day in row the persistent drought forcast for NE florida seems poorly forseen. It seemed bad last Thursday and now it seems like a joke.
Quoting AussieStorm:
STC Rusty 9am WST



Now 9:10pm WST



Port Hedland is the main iron ore shipment port in Australia. Bit ironic, it's going to be hit by a storm called 'Rusty', imo.
Quoting MahFL:


Pretty sure. I live in NE FL. Tornados are very rare, plus it's too cold....

Although for the country-as-a-whole tornadoes are rather rare, when you compare different locations one can find places that are more prone to tornadoes than other locations. Florida is actually among the states with the highest density of tornadoes (I've seen some analyses indicate it as #1), although a larger proportion are in the EF0-1 range than in Dixie Alley or the Great Plains' traditional Tornado Alley.

Saying that tornadoes are rare in Florida is about like saying that murders are rare in New Orleans. It's true in the sense that your chance of being murdered is low, but compared to most other cities, the rate is higher.
Quoting yonzabam:


Port Hedland is the main iron ore shipment port in Australia. Bit ironic, it's going to be hit by a storm called 'Rusty', imo.

Yeah, It's been noted here. Very ironic.
Quoting LargoFl:
Post 510 we are going to need to watch out for straight line damaging winds which are often the case with these lines of storms.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Post 510 we are going to need to watch out for straight line damaging winds which are often the case with these lines of storms.


I wouldn't expect to see winds more than 30-40mph. These storms are not very strong. There is virtually no lightning out there. We could see a nice dose of .5 in of rain for much of the area.
528. MahFL
Quoting biff4ugo:
With severe thunderstorm warnings for a 3rd day in row the persistent drought forcast for NE florida seems poorly forseen. It seemed bad last Thursday and now it seems like a joke.


The airport was about -4 inches for the year, they had 2 inches yesterday and more to come today, so at least there the drought should be almost wiped out.

In Orange Park I had 1.88 inches yesterday.
Lots of drainage ditches are full.
‎74 MPH wind gust at Cedar Key at 7:33 AM when the line went through! Give this line of storms respect as it comes through. Be safe.
Lightning starting to show up in STC Rusty's Eye-wall.
That mean's he's intensifying, right??



Last time there was lighting detected it was over 8hrs ago.
74 MPH wind gust hit Cedar Key and damage has been reported.
Rusty is getting that typical cheese Danish look

Quoting Grothar:
Rusty is getting that typical cheese Danish look



What?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
‎74 MPH wind gust at Cedar Key at 7:33 AM when the line went through! Give this line of storms respect as it comes through. Be safe.


The line is stronger up in that area so I am not surprised that they got some pretty good winds (there was also a hint on radar of a small tornado). Won't be as bad in Tampa Bay.
New Meso Disco coming out in seconds from SPC - maybe a fresh watch for eastern SC and NC.
Rusty is boiling up and throwing out upper level clouds like nuts.



Quoting FunnelVortex:


What?


Not quite a doughnut yet.
Quoting Grothar:


Not quite a doughnut yet.


Small NNE notch left to fill. Looking better and better,

One of the worst case scenarios; a stationary hurricane just before landfall

Loop
At least Rusty is throwing a lot of moisture over big parts of the continent. Good morning everyone from Germany, where it's already 3 pm.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Lightning starting to show up in STC Rusty's Eye-wall.
That mean's he's intensifying, right??



Last time there was lighting detected it was over 8hrs ago.


Sure looks like it.

The line is weakening as it moves toward Tampa
Does anyone here have a GoPro Camera?
I'm bidding on one on ebay right now.
Here is a radar loop of Rusty Link
nearly 10" of rain over 4 days. ditches, creeks, rivers are full. this was definately a drought buster. as for the severe weather, we didn't have any in our immediate area. tallahassee had a few trees down. aussie...hoping the best for you all.
There is a beach webcam in Broome, quite north from Port Hedland. But it's the only cam I found which is at least in the same part of Australia. Wind direction is offshore though (or is it onshore? heck ...).
Link. Chose "View timelapse"
Quoting AussieStorm:
Does anyone here have a GoPro Camera?
I'm bidding on one on ebay right now.


Good luck in the bidding..
Quoting nfloridandr:
nearly 10" of rain over 4 days. ditches, creeks, rivers are full. this was definately a drought buster. as for the severe weather, we didn't have any in our immediate area. tallahassee had a few trees down. aussie...hoping the best for you all.

Thanks, I'm hoping your rain is over and you get a chance to dry out.
Quoting barbamz:
There is a beach webcam in Broome, quite north from Port Hedland. But it's the only cam I found which is at least in the same part of Australia. Wind direction is offshore though.
Link. Chose "View timelapse"

I've been searching for webcams. Not found one, Your one is the closest I found.
TC 18 is having trouble getting it's act together,



"WOW! An offshore wind gust of 91 mph has been reported all the way up there in Cedar Key. We’ve circled it on the map. Don’t take these high winds lightly."

MyFoxTampaBay
Something is very rusty about this situation..
Quoting AussieStorm:

I've been searching for webcams. Not found one, Your one is the closest I found.


Please help, Aussi. Is the wind direction from Rusty in Broome onshore or offshore? I have problems with the southern hemisphere ...;-)
Edit: I think it's onshore?
Quoting pcola57:


Good luck in the bidding..

I want to know what they are like. My highest big is $200(including postage), it's currently sitting at $155. Just wondering if it's a good buy and a good camera. It's a GoPro HD HERO2 Outdoor Edition HD Camcorder and Silver.

Wait why does wunderground have Rusty at 75mph?.
Quoting barbamz:


Please help, Aussi. Is the wind direction from Rusty in Broome onshore or offshore? I have problems with the southern hemisphere ...;-)

Wind is from the north. Which looks like going by the cam it's going across the face.

thanks aussie. if anyone on here has an enclosed utility trailer you may want to keep an eye on the roof mounted vent. the one on our disaster response trailer lasted 3 years. uv/dry rot and crumbled to pieces.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wait why does wunderground have Rusty at 75mph?.


Site's been jacked up for over 24 hrs
Quoting pcola57:


Here's a review on it at cnet.com

Yeah I watched that earlier. Just would like first hand used experience.
I just noticed. At Port Hedland the pressure is going up. got as low as 984.1hPa at 4pm WST today. Right now it's at 988.3hPa. Is the the result of the eye-wall strinking?

Latest Weather Observations for Port Hedland
JTWC Dvorak estimates have Rusty at T5.0. Roughly 85kts 1-min.
Quoting stormchaser19:
One of the worst case scenarios; a stationary hurricane just before landfall


If it remains stationary for a long time then upwelling will cause weakening.


Weather Extremes Provoked by Trapping of Giant Waves in the Atmosphere
Feb. 25, 2013

... "Our dynamical analysis helps to explain the increasing number of novel weather extremes. It complements previous research that already linked such phenomena to climate change, but did not yet identify a mechanism behind it," says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of PIK and co-author of the study. "This is quite a breakthrough, even though things are not at all simple -- the suggested physical process increases the probability of weather extremes, but additional factors certainly play a role as well, including natural variability." Also, the 32-year period studied in the project provides a good indication of the mechanism involved, yet is too short for definite conclusions. ...

Read the whole article on Science Daily
The models agree that it will at least be 24 hours before Rusty's eye comes ashore.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Site's been jacked up for over 24 hrs
I don't want this to turn into wikipedia part two where they have the intensity's all wrong except for the Atlantic basin.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I just noticed. At Port Hedland the pressure is going up. got as low as 984.1hPa at 4pm WST today. Right now it's at 988.3hPa. Is the the result of the eye-wall strinking?

Latest Weather Observations for Port Hedland

Some video from Port Hedland at BBC News website.
Just as I expected. The line is breaking up. Some nice rain but nothing too bad for Tampa.
Quoting barbamz:


Weather Extremes Provoked by Trapping of Giant Waves in the Atmosphere
Feb. 25, 2013

... "Our dynamical analysis helps to explain the increasing number of novel weather extremes. It complements previous research that already linked such phenomena to climate change, but did not yet identify a mechanism behind it," says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of PIK and co-author of the study. "This is quite a breakthrough, even though things are not at all simple -- the suggested physical process increases the probability of weather extremes, but additional factors certainly play a role as well, including natural variability." Also, the 32-year period studied in the project provides a good indication of the mechanism involved, yet is too short for definite conclusions. ...

Read the whole article on Science Daily


Thanks for that barb..
A very sensible and good read..
Australian Port Evacuates as Cyclone Threatens Iron Ore Mines
By Elisabeth Behrmann - Feb 26, 2013 3:40 AM GMT+0100
Quoting barbamz:
Australian Port Evacuates as Cyclone Threatens Iron Ore Mines
By Elisabeth Behrmann - Feb 26, 2013 3:40 AM GMT+0100

They don't really go anywhere. Just go back to there homes as they are built to withstand Cat 6 Cyclone impacts. The port it's self is closed down. Red Alert means everyone must stay inside.
Quoting pottery:

Some video from Port Hedland at BBC News website.


Thanks, Pottery! Link
Hundreds seek shelter ahead of Cyclone Rusty
Tuesday February 26, 2013 - 23:11 EDT
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Just as I expected. The line is breaking up. Some nice rain but nothing too bad for Tampa.
breaking up in a hurry too. I was hoping for some exciting weather lol
576. skook
...Highest Winds In The Past 6 Hours...

... Location... ... time... ... wind...
1 se Cedar Key (marine ) (nos-nwlon) 730 am Feb 26 91 mph
2 NW Dunedin (marine ) (35 ft)(wxflow) 659 am Feb 26 38 mph
3 NNW Belleair (pinellas fl) 736 am Feb 26 37 mph
3 W Tarpon Springs (marine ) (maritime) 648 am Feb 26 35 mph
St Petersburg-Clearwater Intl Airport 743 am Feb 26 35 mph
2 ENE Sarasota (sarasota fl) (wxflow) 515 am Feb 26 34 mph
Sarasota-Bradenton Airport (manatee fl) 447 am Feb 26 33 mph
2 S Boca Grande (lee fl) (wxflow) 430 am Feb 26 33 mph
1 N Baskin (pinellas fl) (aprswxnet) 835 am Feb 26 32 mph
Venice Municipal Airport (sarasota fl) 455 am Feb 26 31 mph
Albert Whitted Airport (pinellas fl) 744 am Feb 26 31 mph
6 E Saint Petersburg (marine ) (wxflow) 750 am Feb 26 31 mph
6 NNW Anna Maria Island (marine ) 410 am Feb 26 31 mph
Tampa Intl Airport (hillsborough fl) 807 am Feb 26 30 mph
Treasure Island (pinellas fl) 836 am Feb 26 30 mph
2 SSE Venice (marine ) (maritime) 500 am Feb 26 30 mph
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Just as I expected. The line is breaking up. Some nice rain but nothing too bad for Tampa.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Just as I expected. The line is breaking up. Some nice rain but nothing too bad for Tampa.
yrah closest severe storm is way up in Ocala, I was hoping for some of that flooding rains but i doubt we will even get half an inch gee..Tampa shields must be up again
Quoting stormchaser19:
One of the worst case scenarios; a stationary hurricane just before landfall
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If it remains stationary for a long time then upwelling will cause weakening.

Pick your poison... a stationary tropical system can cause upwelling and eventually some weakening, but a stationary system also has a much longer time to dump heavy rainfall and pile up storm surge. Weaker winds but potentially higher surge and riverine flooding.
Here's a video from Port Hedland earlier today.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Courtesy of Oz Cyclone Chasers.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Pick your poison... a stationary tropical system can cause upwelling and eventually some weakening, but a stationary system also has a much longer time to dump heavy rainfall and pile up storm surge. Weaker winds but potentially higher surge and riverine flooding.

Don't forget, the waters off the coast there at boiling hot and goes deep. It's about 200ft deep in the area Rusty is in.
Aussie asked hubby about that camera-"They're cool cameras.  Never got to play with 1.  Most Red Bull footage is shot with them."
Hope that coast line pulls through with minimal damage and folks follow directions to stay safe.
Quoting MahFL:


Pretty sure. I live in NE FL. Tornados are very rare, plus it's too cold....


I know this was from a couple of hours ago and many others have commented. But I wanted to add some historical info to the discussion.

Tornadoes ARE very common in Florida. Yes, most of them are small, EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes and happen with the summertime pulse severe thunderstorms. They are isolated in nature and cause little damage, typically.

However, EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes are not uncommon in Florida and these usually happen either in conjunction with tropical cyclones or with the passage of vigorous frontal systems, particularly in the Spring but also sometimes in Autumn or in Winter.

Florida has recorded at least two EF-4 tornadoes in its history. One was in the 1950s and occurred in rural Polk County, where it touched down and caused some damage to agricultural properties but no deaths or injuries. The other one was much more significant and killed at least 11 people in its track across the central part of the state, mostly in the cities of Lakeland and Tampa. That one happened on April 4, 1966. This was a "long track" tornado and stayed on the ground for most of the distance between where it first came ashore as a tornadic waterspout in the Tampa Bay area and its exit into the Atlantic near Cocoa, Florida.

No EF-5 twisters have ever been officially recorded in Florida. But bear in mind that in the days before doppler radar, there is no telling what may have taken place in parts of Florida that are unusually isolated, such as the South Central region and the Everglades. And there is certainly no reason an EF-5 could not happen in Florida, if all of the right atmospheric ingredients were to come together. Chances are it will happen someday.

Too many people tend to simplify things in their perspective, associating certain areas of the planet with certain types of weather and not others. So when a hurricane like Sandy strikes in the populated areas of the NE US, this is thought to be "unprecedented" and totally abnormal; "it just shouldn't ever happen." The truth though is that it can and does happen, occasionally but what is logged into the consciousness is that hurricanes are associated with places much further to the south. They happen there much more frequently, yes but this does not mean they cannot happen elsewhere.

And so it is with tornadoes. The phenomenon of hurricanes is so much associated with Florida that many people tend to block out of their awareness that Florida is a tornado-prone state as well. Tornadoes are supposed to happen in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas, not Florida. And not North Carolina either. But they do happen in those places and they have taken many human lives in both of those places as well as many other areas around the world that are not immediately associated with them in the mass consciousness.
Quoting fireflymom:
Aussie asked hubby about that camera-"They're cool cameras.  Never got to play with 1.  Most Red Bull footage is shot with them."
Hope that coast line pulls through with minimal damage and folks follow directions to stay safe.

Oh cool, thanks. I know retail there about $300 so I hope I can pick it up for less than $200.

Well, we won't know till after Rusty is gone about the damage. My contact in Port Hedland has told me the power is underground in her area. She still has power and internet and cell phone connections. Actually she just told me she's been in a few Cyclones. A couple when she lived in Derby in the early 80s, Alby in the 70s and a couple when I was in Broome in the 2000s.
Miami NWS Disco

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THROUGH GEORGIA...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. IT FELT LIKE
SUMMER THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S. IF THE LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THIS MORNING HOLD
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ALL OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES WOULD
SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR THE DATE. IN FACT...FORT LAUDERDALE
AND NAPLES ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
12Z GFS is now coming out!:)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z GFS is now coming out!:)


I wonder if it is still going to show the possibility of snow in Florida on this upcoming Sunday?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
breaking up in a hurry too. I was hoping for some exciting weather lol


Me too. But the dynamics really are there for this system to bring anything too severe this far south since the energy is way north. Maybe we'll get some excitement in March.
594. eddye
latest gfs shows mid 2 upper 50 for highs and low in the mid 2 upper 30 for south fla and central fl in the mid 20 and high in the upper 40
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want this to turn into wikipedia part two where they have the intensity's all wrong except for the Atlantic basin.

?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want this to turn into wikipedia part two where they have the intensity's all wrong except for the Atlantic basin.

This chart makes it easier for you.



And with that. I'm going to bed.

Goodnight all. Stay safe, Stay well.
Tx flurries?



Lot of rain in Macon:


And a north alabama forecast.
brrrrr on saturday and saturday night:

7-DAY FORECAST
Today A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Southwest wind 15 to 20 mph.

Tonight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Southwest wind around 15 mph.
Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. West wind 15 to 20 mph.

Wednesday Night A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday Night A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday A slight chance of freezing rain and sleet before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 32.

Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Hoping I see a flake:
The downtown Clearwater report station only received .22 in and the heavy rain has now passed through. Pretty disappointed that we didn't see more. Also, the strongest wind gust was 27.6mph.
GFS says 12 days and then a (temporary or permanent?) warmup.
ECMWF says no warm up for at least 10 days.
Quoting icmoore:
"WOW! An offshore wind gust of 91 mph has been reported all the way up there in Cedar Key. We’ve circled it on the map. Don’t take these high winds lightly."

MyFoxTampaBay


Winds were 30-50mph this morning between 4-5 am here.
Pouring rain, some thunder 35F.

Had to change my morning route to swim practice to avoid fallen trees.
When I woke up it sounded like a severe thunderstorm.
602. MahFL
Was that offshore wind 200 feet up on an oil rig, or something ?
Quoting MahFL:
Was that offshore wind 200 feet up on an oil rig, or something ?


I haven't seen any reports of 90mph winds. That type of wind would do damage (trees, power lines, etc...)
Quoting clwstmchasr:
The downtown Clearwater report station only received .22 in and the heavy rain has now passed through. Pretty disappointed that we didn't see more. Also, the strongest wind gust was 27.6mph.


Just be patient. Another storm system will come along and roar through this area sometime soon. So this one was fairly quiet but not all of them will be.

In fact, we get something potent in the wintertime or later almost every year. In some years we can get two or more such systems in quick succession.

In 2011, I recall waking up in the pre-dawn hours to flash/flash/crash/bang, whirling and howling winds and the heavy rain drops just starting to fall...

Then I turned on Bay News 9 and the other local news outlets and found tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings all over the place. This was in late March and early April of that year. A few weeks later, the massive and tragic outbreak took place up in Alabama and surrounding states.
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Wallal and Whim Creek are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST



TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued at 11:51 pm WST on Tuesday 26 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie
including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the
Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the
Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman, Telfer and adjacent parts of the Gascoyne
district.

At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 3 was estimated to be
125 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
285 kilometres northeast of Karratha and is near stationary.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has been near stationary over the last few hours
but is expected to resume a southerly track towards the Pilbara coast during
Wednesday. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive
and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the centre
crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the centre. Wind gusts to
120 kilometres per hour have already been experienced in Port Hedland and
conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during Wednesday.

Gales are occuring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with
destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may
extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and
Millstream later Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 165 kilometres per hour are
likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during
Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.


This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in
an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is
heavier than that associated with a typical system. Widespread very heavy
rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the
De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue
catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also
likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides are likely to rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY
DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.


DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland and South Hedland should remain in shelter.
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Pardoo, extending inland
to Marble Bar need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Bidyadanga and Wallal and between
Whim Creek and Mardie, including Karratha and extending to inland areas
including Nullagine and Millstream, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and
organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.3 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 km/hour(127mph)(110kts) and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 953 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday 27 February.
Goodnight all.
Quoting MahFL:
Was that offshore wind 200 feet up on an oil rig, or something ?
probably a weather buoy.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Meteorologist Brooks Garner from WFLA recorded a peak wind gust of 60 mph. in downtown Tampa. It was raining pretty hard at the St. Pete Gibbs Campus about an hour ago.
610. MahFL
It always suprises me when a big storm is ongoing that a NWS office would post a test tornado warning, lol.

* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. TEST TORNADO WARNING FOR...ALL OF WISCONSIN...
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Although for the country-as-a-whole tornadoes are rather rare, when you compare different locations one can find places that are more prone to tornadoes than other locations. Florida is actually among the states with the highest density of tornadoes (I've seen some analyses indicate it as #1), although a larger proportion are in the EF0-1 range than in Dixie Alley or the Great Plains' traditional Tornado Alley.

Saying that tornadoes are rare in Florida is about like saying that murders are rare in New Orleans. It's true in the sense that your chance of being murdered is low, but compared to most other cities, the rate is higher.



Tell me about, here in Pinellas county we see a lot of tornadoes. I personally have witnessed at least 2 and that doesn't include the numerous funnel clouds and water spouts I've seen.

Just a few year back we had 10 tornadoes in a severe event just in this county. I can't think of a year where at least 1 tornado hasn't been confirmed somewhere around Tampa Bay. I'm sure there may have been some years. but not in recent memory. I've had close calls with tornadoes coming within a couple miles of striking my house at least a few times since living here in the 90's.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I know this was from a couple of hours ago and many others have commented. But I wanted to add some historical info to the discussion.

Tornadoes ARE very common in Florida. Yes, most of them are small, EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes and happen with the summertime pulse severe thunderstorms. They are isolated in nature and cause little damage, typically.

However, EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes are not uncommon in Florida and these usually happen either in conjunction with tropical cyclones or with the passage of vigorous frontal systems, particularly in the Spring but also sometimes in Autumn or in Winter.

Florida has recorded at least two EF-4 tornadoes in its history. One was in the 1950s and occurred in rural Polk County, where it touched down and caused some damage to agricultural properties but no deaths or injuries. The other one was much more significant and killed at least 11 people in its track across the central part of the state, mostly in the cities of Lakeland and Tampa. That one happened on April 4, 1966. This was a "long track" tornado and stayed on the ground for most of the distance between where it first came ashore as a tornadic waterspout in the Tampa Bay area and its exit into the Atlantic near Cocoa, Florida.

No EF-5 twisters have ever been officially recorded in Florida. But bear in mind that in the days before doppler radar, there is no telling what may have taken place in parts of Florida that are unusually isolated, such as the South Central region and the Everglades. And there is certainly no reason an EF-5 could not happen in Florida, if all of the right atmospheric ingredients were to come together. Chances are it will happen someday.

Too many people tend to simplify things in their perspective, associating certain areas of the planet with certain types of weather and not others. So when a hurricane like Sandy strikes in the populated areas of the NE US, this is thought to be "unprecedented" and totally abnormal; "it just shouldn't ever happen." The truth though is that it can and does happen, occasionally but what is logged into the consciousness is that hurricanes are associated with places much further to the south. They happen there much more frequently, yes but this does not mean they cannot happen elsewhere.

And so it is with tornadoes. The phenomenon of hurricanes is so much associated with Florida that many people tend to block out of their awareness that Florida is a tornado-prone state as well. Tornadoes are supposed to happen in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas, not Florida. And not North Carolina either. But they do happen in those places and they have taken many human lives in both of those places as well as many other areas around the world that are not immediately associated with them in the mass consciousness.



In fact, if a freak low pressure system like those that produce major tornado outbreaks in the Southern plains and deep south were to track over Florida, the fact that we often have a lot higher dew points, heating, and CAPE available would actually make our area prime for high end tornadoes.

It's just the upper level system that produce the necessary dynamics are so far removed they usually aren't strong. However the large amount of tornadoes we get are indication that Florida actually is a great environment for tornadoes to form. It's just the systems which provide the strong cold pools aloft and dynamic shear most of the time stay well north of us.

But Sandy is a great example, it can certainly happen. The scary thing is our worse tornado outbreaks often come during the Spring when we are on average experiencing the driest and fair weather of the year.

613. vis0
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