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Largest winter storm of the season helping dent Midwest drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:00 PM GMT on February 21, 2013

The largest snowstorm of the winter for the Midwest drought region is winding up, and promises to bring more than a foot of snow to portions of Kansas and Nebraska. Rain and snow from the storm--dubbed Winter Storm "Q"--will put a noticeable dent in the Great Drought of 2012 - 2013 over the Midwest. A second storm due to move through the region on Monday will provide a bit of additional help. The twin storms promise to drop more than an inch of rain (or liquid equivalent rain, for regions like Kansas and Nebraska getting heavy snow.) Many areas of the drought region should enjoy their their wettest day in months on Thursday. The core drought region in the Midwest needs 3 - 9 inches of precipitation to end the drought, so the 1" of precipitation expected from the two storms will merely dent the drought, not end it. Still, the economic value of the rain and snow from the two storms is in the billions of dollars. In addition, runoff from the storms will insure that barge traffic on the Mississippi River will be able to operate well into summer. The Mississippi River at St. Louis is currently about 7' above the lowest water level on record, up over six feet from the near record-low levels of early January.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 5-day period ending Monday, February 25 at 7 pm EST. The core Midwest drought region is expected to get about an inch of precipitation. Since this region needs 3 - 9 inches of precipitation to end the drought, this coming week's rain and snow will take them at least 10% towards that goal. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 2. The amount of precipitation needed to bring the contiguous U.S. out of long-term drought conditions (raise the long-term Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, above -0.5) shows that the core drought region in the Midwest needs 3 - 9 inches of precipitation to end the drought. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.

Drought-busting rains coming for Georgia and Alabama; flooding now a concern
Heavy rains last week in Alabama and Georgia helped give that region no areas of exceptional drought for the first time since January 10, 2012. Another 3 - 8 inches of rain is expected during the next five days, which will help bust the multi-year drought that has affected the area. Flash flooding will even be a concern, particularly on Tuesday. However, as noted in the latest NOAA seasonal drought outlook, "any recovery will occur very slowly, as it will take time for any increased rainfall to chip away at the large moisture deficits that have accumulated over the course of a multi-year drought."


Figure 3. NOAA's February 21 Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist over at least 60% of the U.S. drought area through the end of May, with new areas of drought developing over the Southwest U.S. and Florida. However, significant improvement is expected in the Southeast and Upper Midwest.

Drought expected to continue into the summer
The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought remained unchanged this week at 56%, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report. NOAA's February 21 Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist over at least 60% of the U.S. drought area through the end of May, with new areas of drought developing over the Southwest U.S. and Florida; significant improvement is expected in the Southeast and Upper Midwest, though. After Monday's storm, the GFS and European (ECMWF) models predict that the jet stream will return to the pattern it was in for the first six weeks of 2013, meaning that precipitation-bearing storms will continue to miss the Midwest through at least the first week of March. Given that this jet stream pattern has been very persistent for many months, it's a good bet that drought will be a huge concern as we enter summer. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts an increased chance of drier than average conditions over southwestern portions of the drought region during the coming three months. In general, droughts are more likely in the Midwest U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) This is what we have had so far in 2013. The equatorial tropical Pacific was about 0.3°C below average (as of February 18). This is similar to the ocean temperatures seen in the spring of 2012, just before the Great Drought of 2012 began.

Drought links:
My post on Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger discussed how drought is our greatest threat from climate change.

Ricky Rood blogs about the Dust Bowl

Jeff Masters
Stormy Skies
Stormy Skies
Saguaros with Snow and Rocks, no Fog
Saguaros with Snow and Rocks, no Fog
Southern Arizona, USA

Drought Q

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Front is now starting it's stall along my area..
Forecasted to receive 7" inches plus from now until Tues...
Have picked up .5" so far since midnight..
Quoting pcola57:
Front is now starting it's stall along my area..
Forecasted to receive 7"+ inches from now until Tues...
Have picked up .5" so far since midnight..



You can see that dry slot splitting the system..





some big dry air in the tropics there
Im going to work now... then to school... I should be back by 9 PM EST..

Have a good day here you guys
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im going to work now... then to school... I should be back by 9 PM EST..

Have a good day here you guys


You too Max..
Stay safe..
Miami NWS Disco

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS LOOKING MORE PLAUSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE PLAINS/MS VLY
AND PUSH TOWARD GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY MON/TUE. INITIALLY...THIS
WILL LIFT ANY REMNANT LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR TUESDAY /ECMWF/ WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA. CHANCE POPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT BEST DYNAMICS APPEAR NORTH OF
REGION. THOUGH NOT REFLECTED CURRENTLY IN GRIDS...THUNDERSTORMS
CANT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SOUTHWARD TREK OF OVERALL STORM SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST...PRESENT GUIDANCE
POINTS TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
OVERRUNNING CLOUDS/MOISTURE PERSISTING. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT TROUGH
STILL WEST OF FLORIDA...SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN OR INCREASE INTO
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD...DRY ADVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES BY END OF PERIOD...AND TEMPERATURES
MAY LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

For West Palm Beach...

Quick update on Haruna..





SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 007
WTXS31 PGTW 220300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 22.2S 43.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 43.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.0S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.1S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.0S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.1S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.1S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS


---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.1S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 43.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
dothan...light rain so far. nws tallahassee forecast rainfall totals thru saturday could anywhere from 5 to fifteen inches....
HAURANA is inland and still has a little bit of an eye.

CPC shows definite below average temps. for the Southeast in their 6-10 day outlook..



8-14 day..



3-7 day Hazards outlook..



06z GFS precip map through 120 hours


00z CMC




This invest had it's chance...

Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Friday, Feb. 22

Scattered severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain in southeast LA, extreme southeast MS,
south AL, southwest GA, west FL panhandle. Heavy rain also in central AL, central GA, SC.

AL south - 3
FL west, central panhandle - 3
GA southwest - 3
LA southeast - 2
MS southeast - 2
other areas - 1 or less
Saturday, Feb. 23

Probably no severe thunderstorms, but thunderstorms with locally heavy rain in coastal NC and
SC, south GA, southeast AL, FL panhandle and northeast peninsula. TORCON - less than 1.
Sunday, Feb. 24

Probably no severe thunderstorms before dark, as a stationary front is offshore of the Gulf
Coast. Heavy rain overnight in south LA, south MS, south AL, FL panhandle. A low chance of an
isolated severe thunderstorm overnight in upper coastal TX, south LA.
Monday, Feb. 25

Numerical models disagree somewhat on the location of a wave of low pressure running along the
south Gulf Coast states, so confidence in forecast details is reduced. Isolated severe thunder-
storms and locally heavy rain in southeast LA, south MS, south AL, FL panhandle, south GA.
TORCON - 3 to 4 these areas
Good Morning; courtesy of the Eurythmics:

Here comes the rain again
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my head like a new emotion
I want to walk in the open wind


The current water vapor loop pretty much tells the story of the flow pattern; lot's of rain on the horizon for the SE and Gulf Coast over the next 24 hours:

Link
Here's a good microwave shot of Haruna as it made landfall last night:



It's holding up about as well as a tropical cyclone over land can, still an excellent outflow pattern and obvious eye, although it is becoming more ragged and clouded:

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning; courtesy of the Eurythmics:

Here comes the rain again
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my head like a new emotion
I want to walk in the open wind




I'm an Enya fan:


Listen to the rain
Here it comes again
Hear it in the rain

Feel the touch of tears that fall
They won't fall forever
In the way the day will flow
All things come, all things go
Earth Science Image of the day


Photographer: Miguel Claro; Miguel's Web site
Summary Authors: Miguel Claro; Jim Foster

The image above showing a splendid twilight sky and colorful star trails was captured at Adraga Beach, in Sintra, Portugal, on the evening of December 2, 2012. Waves from the Atlantic Ocean are lapping the foamy beach, reflecting the sunset colors.

The different colors of different stars are clearly distinguishable here. Yellow/orange star trails are cooler than blue/white ones. Mars is nearest the rocky outcrop at the water's edge (left center). The red planet's trail would have appeared redder, but on this time exposed image it has taken on the golden light of the setting Sun. The two star trails of similar color and brightness at upper left are in the constellation of Capricorn. At far right is the bright trail of Rasalhague in Ophiuchus. Below and to the right of Rasalgethi, the trail of a red giant is shown. Note that the trails of the stars appear to parallel the angled face of the outcrop.

Photo details: Canon 50D camera; 16mm lens; f/5.6; 30 second exposure; ISO 800; sum of 70 images taken on February 12, 2012, between 18:24 and 19:02 GMT.
Earth Image of the day




After maintaining a low simmer for ten months, Italy’s Etna volcano boiled over on February 19–20, 2013, with three outbursts in 36 hours. According to the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, each outburst (paroxysm) featured “emission of lava flows, pyroclastic flows, lahars, and an ash cloud.”

The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite captured Mount Etna on February 19 at 9:59 a.m. Central European Time, about 3 hours after the end of the first paroxysm. The false-color image combines shortwave infrared, near-infrared, and green light in the red, green, and blue channels of an RGB picture. This combination makes it easier to differentiate between fresh lava, snow, clouds, and forest.

In the image, fresh lava is bright red, as the hot surface emits enough energy to saturate the instrument’s shortwave infrared detectors but is dark in near-infrared and green light. Snow is blue-green because it absorbs shortwave infrared light, but reflects near-infrared and green light. Clouds made of water droplets (not ice crystals) reflect all three wavelengths of light similarly and appear white. Forests and other vegetation reflect near-infrared more strongly than shortwave infrared and green, and so appear green. Dark gray areas are lightly vegetated lava flows, 30 to 350 years old.
Quoting yonzabam:


I'm an Enya fan:


Listen to the rain
Here it comes again
Hear it in the rain

Feel the touch of tears that fall
They won't fall forever
In the way the day will flow
All things come, all things go
I love that song and Enya.Have you listened to caribbean blue?.Very nice and fairytale like :).
National Geographic Image of the day




Photograph by Mark Bridger, My Shot

This Month in Photo of the Day: Your Photos

A wild barn owl flying over Norfolk reeds at dusk


What Makes This a Photo of the Day? I have an affinity for owls. Knowing that not everyone may feel as I do, I try to limit myself to one owl photograph per month, and I%u2019m happy for the chance to run this one in February. The light is beautiful and the composition nicely balanced, with the owl punctuating the empty space above the reeds.Alexa Keefe, Photo of the Day editor
Quoting washingtonian115:
I love that song and Enya.Have you listened to caribbean blue?.Very nice and fairytale like :).


I've got all her albums. Memory of Trees, Storms in Africa, Caribbean Blue, Pax Deorum, Athair Am Seamh, On My Way Home, are my favs.
I hear there is a large reward for information leading to the extermination of a certain groundhog.....
I won't be surprised if we have another storm in May this year.Don't think we'll see anything on the 2012 level though.The gulf stream is very warm like it was last year..and that played a important role in the formation of Beryl and Alberto.
Quoting yonzabam:


I've got all her albums. Memory of Trees, Storms in Africa, Caribbean Blue, Pax Deorum, Athair Am Seamh, On My Way Home, are my favs.
On a rainy day like this one I just love to turn on my ipod or radio and listen to her soft voice and all the instruments come together.Her songs are very calm and tell great stories.
The 00z and 06z GFS runs have a big warmup at the end of the period (early March) in advance of a strong low pressure system that ejects into the central plains. A setup like this, given the wind shear present as well, would probably lead to severe weather.

Long way out, but a remainder that it's almost tornado time.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I hear there is a large reward for information leading to the extermination of a certain groundhog.....
I have learned from a very long time ago that when he says spring is coming early that instead it means that winter will be staying longer.lol.
Quoting washingtonian115:
On a rainy day like this one I just love to turn on my ipod or radio and listen to her soft voice and all the instruments come together.Her songs are very calm and tell great stories.


It rains all the time on the west coast of Ireland, where she was born. Her best album (imo) is called 'A Day Without Rain'
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 00z and 06z GFS runs have a big warmup at the end of the period (early March) in advance of a strong low pressure system that ejects into the central plains. A setup like this, given the wind shear present as well, would probably lead to severe weather.

Long way out, but a remainder that it's almost tornado time.


384 hrs -_-

the east coast trough wont move for a while
hey pcola, check out the nws tallahassee rainfall forecast. not good at all. will be much flooding if this holds.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I have learned from a very long time ago that when he says spring is coming early that instead it means that winter will be staying longer.lol.


the GA groundhog was right :)
I have noticed that Sandy's track looks like a question mark.Even she didn't know where the hell she was going.lol.
Quoting yonzabam:


It rains all the time on the west coast of Ireland, where she was born. Her best album (imo) is called 'A Day Without Rain'
Which is why her songs are the best for rainy weather.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the GA groundhog was right :)
Sir Walter Waleigh in NC was right as well. We had a light winter mess of frz rain, sleet to scrape off the car this morning.
Extremely heavy rain north of Bonifay, Florida this morning between 7:30 and 8:30. Was trying to maneuver out of the pastures when the boss called and said work from home. A lot of water in a very short period of time but it seems to have slowed to just average rain fall now.
hondosgirl im about 10 miles east of you. looks like this is going to be a significant event. hope you fair well! will post pics later.
Major floods in Istanbul, Turkey.
Dozen dead and more missing.
Dread.
I wouldnt be surprised to see a March southeast snowfall given this pattern. It's happened in later march before.
Up here in D.C the ground is saturated and yet forecasters keep saying that we are below average?.I'm confused.How much more rain do they want before we start having flood problems like back in 2011?.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Up here in D.C the ground is saturated and yet forecasters keep saying that we are below average?.I'm confused.How much more rain do they want before we start having flood problems like back in 2011?.


Every time it rains now in GA there is flooding, but since we finished last year 13" behind normal and the year before that near 10" below normal, we are still in a "drought" apparently. However the only things not full are the large reservoirs, and surrounding areas would flood before we saw enough rain to fill those up.

I tried to explain earlier this year that we were not in a drought and since november it had rained quite often....
Quoting HondosGirl:
Extremely heavy rain north of Bonifay, Florida this morning between 7:30 and 8:30. Was trying to maneuver out of the pastures when the boss called and said work from home. A lot of water in a very short period of time but it seems to have slowed to just average rain fall now.


Been to Bonifay many times..
Bought a cheapo house with 50 acres(in the 1980's)..
Started raising Quail,Chucas and Pheasents there..
Was a blast setting them free after they got strong enough to take on the world..
I had large flight pens in order to let them fly freely until adulthood..
It was a giving back to nature project that didn't really cost much..
Just love and care was all..
Was a nice getaway from beach life here..

Hope you get the rain you need there..
Stay safe HondosGirl..

Here's a local webcam from near you..



Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Every time it rains now in GA there is flooding, but since we finished last year 13" behind normal and the year before that near 10" below normal, we are still in a "drought" apparently. However the only things not full are the large reservoirs, and surrounding areas would flood before we saw enough rain to fill those up.
The thing is though is that D.C isn't in that much of a drought.An the drought monitor map shows that we are near normal and showing improvement.So I'm not to sure what their talking about.
Mid week:


And by 10 days, the ECMWF says florida, cuba, and the yucatan get in on the chill:


Safe to say, no severe weather, but maybe highs in the 30s for the ohio valley and SE, even into march.

GFS shows highs in the 30-50 range, South of the Ohio river and East of the mississippi for the first week of march...even colder further north and in the midwest.

Not till March 10 or later does the GFS allow warmth to return ahead of .... a cold front, which just sends the cold back.(with even colder air)
Glad that cyclone that is hitting Madagascar isn't what the ECWMF was forecasting.Seems the GFS nailed it.The ECWMF was showing a near cat 5 hitting the coast.
552. ARiot
Had a gravity wave bust through the TN Valley last night. Local mets over in town have a blog about it.

Link


IIRC these look really cool in the daytime and make clouds to interesting-looking things.

Too bad it only served to wake up me and the dog.

WOOOOSH.
Quoting ARiot:
Had a gravity wave bust through the TN Valley last night. Local mets over in town have a blog about it.

Link


IIRC these look really cool in the daytime and make clouds to interesting-looking things.

Too bad it only served to wake up me and the dog.

WOOOOSH.


I only remember one significant gravity wave,
in April 2009 after a rainy period. I remember the new leaves had come out on the trees a few weeks before, and it had rained overnight, (we had maybe 1 or 2 severe thunderstorm warnings) and then around 7-8am, a strong sustained 45-55 mph wind from the northwest blew for what seemed like an hour.

The wind came from the NW GA and S TN mountains, and gusted over 60mph at times. The combination of wet trees and leaves, dense foliage, and moist soils, resulted in numerous downed trees and power lines.
The winds actually ripped away some of the docks from Lake Lanier and tore boats away from their ropes.(quite a mess to fix, one of my friends even had to go recover his boat from the middle of the lake and tow it back to a different dock)

It was awesome to watch, it was like an extended severe thunderstorm, and with all the leaves and trees blowing, it was quite noisy too.

We lost power though, due to stupid pine trees that cant stand up to a 50mph wind gust.
A severe drought leading up to that also had damaged or weakened many tree root systems, aiding in their fall.

I've always wanted to see one again.
Quoting pottery:
Major floods in Istanbul, Turkey.
Dozen dead and more missing.
Dread.


Hmm, Pottery, where did you get this from? For sure there is heavy rain in the whole region, yesterday causing havoc in Athens. But despite a quite strange water accident with a bus yesterday (see below) in Istanbul I couldn't find any informations about flooding in Istanbul with a lot of casualties right now on European news (and Twitter as well). But maybe we are just slow ;-)

BTW Site with a collection of very good and quick live webcams from Istanbul (but it's getting dark now)
http://www.ibb.gov.tr/en-US/Organization/Municipa lHistory/Pages/Live_City_View_in_Istanbul.aspx

Edit: That's about the accident in Istanbul, I'm not sure whether someone died (I think nobody).

Turkish Bus Flood Video: Passengers Avoid Drowning By Breaking Windows

The Huffington Post | By Ron Dicker Posted: 02/21/2013 6:56 pm EST | Updated: 02/21/2013 6:56 pm EST

The freak accident unfolded Tuesday afternoon when the bus collided with an 18-wheel truck, then struck a water valve, GMT said. The bus quickly filled with pressurized water as surrounding businesses and homes were evacuated.


we now have winter storm rocky
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
547 AM HST FRI FEB 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 845 AM HST

* AT 542 AM HST...A GAGE ON WAIKANE STREAM SHOWED A RAPID RISE
IN WATER LEVEL FROM HEAVY RAIN NEAR HAUULA...OR ABOUT 16 MILES
NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PUNALUU AND LAIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 845 AM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2158 15811 2168 15790 2142 15770 2139 15797

$$
HOUSTON
Quoting nfloridandr:
hondosgirl im about 10 miles east of you. looks like this is going to be a significant event. hope you fair well! will post pics later.
Rain let up enough for a quick walk/puddle splash with the dogs. Shot a few pics of the incoming next round. Dark again now, but the rain hasn't started back yet. Looking forward to seeing your pictures of the event.
Quoting barbamz:


Hmm, Pottery, where did you get this from? For sure there is heavy rain in the whole region, yesterday causing havoc in Athens. But despite a quite strange water accident with a bus yesterday (or so) in Istanbul I couldn't find any informations about flooding in Istanbul with a lot of casualties right now on European news (and Twitter as well). But maybe we are just slow ;-)

BTW Site with a collection of very good and quick live webcams from Istanbul (but it's getting dark now)
http://www.ibb.gov.tr/en-US/Organization/Municipa lHistory/Pages/Live_City_View_in_Istanbul.aspx

BBC News website, today.
Quoting pottery:

BBC News website, today.


OOOOPSS !!

I was looking at related Vids.

It's ATHENS, today. Sorry.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
547 AM HST FRI FEB 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 845 AM HST

* AT 542 AM HST...A GAGE ON WAIKANE STREAM SHOWED A RAPID RISE
IN WATER LEVEL FROM HEAVY RAIN NEAR HAUULA...OR ABOUT 16 MILES
NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PUNALUU AND LAIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 845 AM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2158 15811 2168 15790 2142 15770 2139 15797

$$
HOUSTON


Houston, we have a problem:


Quoting HondosGirl:
Rain let up enough for a quick walk/puddle splash with the dogs. Shot a few pics of the incoming next round. Dark again now, but the rain hasn't started back yet. Looking forward to seeing your pictures of the event.


I used to work in Bonifay........Take care out there.
Quoting pcola57:


Been to Bonifay many times..
Bought a cheapo house with 50 acres(in the 1980's)..
Started raising Quail,Chucas and Pheasents there..
Was a blast setting them free after they got strong enough to take on the world..
I had large flight pens in order to let them fly freely until adulthood..
It was a giving back to nature project that didn't really cost much..
Just love and care was all..
Was a nice getaway from beach life here..


Hey P'Cola that sounds like a wonderful project. We moved here about 11 years ago from Panama City and enjoy the break from the beach as well. What are Chucas? I am not familiar with that term.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I used to work in Bonifay........Take care out there.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I used to work in Bonifay........Take care out there.


Yes, you did --- you used to work with me in Bonifay!
The snow ended here and I did get 1-3", haven't measured yet. A bigger system is certainly possible for early next week.
Quoting wxchaser97:
The snow ended here and I did get 1-3", haven't measured yet. A bigger system is certainly possible for early next week.


i'm jealous...that's a lot of snow.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i'm jealous...that's a lot of snow.

I'm jealous of Wichita getting 14.2", now that is a lot of snow. 1-3" is nothing, but still I have to go out and shovel right now.
Quoting pottery:


OOOOPSS !!

I was looking at related Vids.

It's ATHENS, today. Sorry.


O.K. Thank you, I'm relieved for Istanbul :-)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21544991

In Athens unfortunately one young woman died because of a heart attack, when her car was swept away. I don't know whether it's the women on the pic.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I wouldnt be surprised to see a March southeast snowfall given this pattern. It's happened in later march before.
I remember a big event back in the early 80's when Atlanta had a 6"+ snowfall the last week of March! I was in Florida on spring break and was upset that I missed it.
. Already done.
It will be interesting to see how things go today, the main area of strong thunderstorms was not forecast to reach Tallahassee today, it was forecast to stall west of here. The forecast is a "chance of rain" but no thunderstorms or even convective showers in the forecast.

Well they might want to revise that, heavy rain with thunderstorms are headed this way, I can already here some pretty loud thunder.


I also think higher QPF should be expanded further south and east. I think we will see more rain than depicted here.
Coming right at you jedkins..................
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE LEAF NEAR MCLAIN
* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
* AT 10AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS...16.1 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO
NEAR 18.5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 18 FEET, CONSIDERABLE LOWLAND AND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
$$
Very high amounts of moisture for this time of year:

Quoting HondosGirl:


Yes, you did --- you used to work with me in Bonifay!


Lol......Take care.
Quoting LargoFl:
Coming right at you jedkins..................



It sure is! It is already raining here at a pretty good clip with plenty of thunder rumbling in the distance. We probably will get more than expected. The PW map shows the front has progressed a bit further southeast than forecast.

With that said, as another wave of low pressure develops along the front, it shift lift back northwest some later tonight more towards the forecast of heaviest precip. Therefore, I'm not saying the forecast is bust for those areas by any means, their best chance at heavy rain is still yet to come.

However, because the front has initially progressed further southeast, that's good for Tallahassee because rain is going to be heavier here today than expected before the front is expected to focus rain back towards the western panhandle, which is what the models are showing.

Our best chances of all come later this weekend in a couple of events, one later tomorrow into tomorrow night, and another Sunday night into Monday.
Comets Lemmon and PanSTARRS sweeping through the Southern Skies: Beautiful video!
Quoting Jedkins01:
It will be interesting to see how things go today, the main area of strong thunderstorms was not forecast to reach Tallahassee today, it was forecast to stall west of here. The forecast is a "chance of rain" but no thunderstorms or even convective showers in the forecast.

Well they might want to revise that, heavy rain with thunderstorms are headed this way, I can already here some pretty loud thunder.


I also think higher QPF should be expanded further south and east. I think we will see more rain than depicted here.


Tallahassee NWS (in your building at the Met School) addressed that in their outlook yesterday; possible adjustment for higher pops if the front drifted a little further South.......Looks like it did and we were/are in the warm sector this morning with the moist Gulf flow and fog. Good thing the rain shield has kept the instability down so far.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Tallahassee NWS (in your building at the Met School) addressed that in their outlook yesterday; possible adjustment for higher pops if the front drifted a little further South.......Looks like it did and we were/are in the warm sector this morning with the most Gulf flow and fog. Good thing the rain shield has kept the instability down so far.


Yep! They notice forecast errors in the models and get on changes fast, which is good!

Unfortunately the radar is down right now, so we'll have to use the fringes of the one further west, or the one to the north.
Quoting Jedkins01:



It sure is! It is already raining here at a pretty good clip with plenty of thunder rumbling in the distance. We probably will get more than expected. The PW map shows the front has progressed a bit further southeast than forecast.

With that said, as another wave of low pressure develops along the front, it shift lift back northwest some later tonight more towards the forecast of heaviest precip. Therefore, I'm not saying the forecast is bust for those areas by any means, their best chance at heavy rain is still yet to come.

However, because the front has initially progressed further southeast, that's good for Tallahassee because rain is going to be heavier here today than expected before the front is expected to focus rain back towards the western panhandle, which is what the models are showing.

Our best chances of all come later this weekend in a couple of events, one later tomorrow into tomorrow night, and another Sunday night into Monday.
Is there a strong area of High Pressure off the East Coast of Florida that is preventing this front from progressing even further south? I have noticed that has been the theme since last year even during hurricane season and was one of the reasons why Isaac kept moving further west.
I cant wait till spring, when it's 60s and 70s every day and we have storms....April/May here I come!












Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I cant wait till spring, when it's 60s and 70s every day and we have storms....April/May here I come!














The first image shows a EF3 tornado 5 miles to SE from me on April 16, 2011... too close for me!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is there a strong area of High Pressure off the East Coast of Florida that is preventing this front from progressing even further south? I have noticed that has been the theme since last year even during hurricane season and was one of the reasons why Isaac kept moving further west.



Yep! You are correct, its been a very stubborn pattern for a long time now.

What happens then as a result is when there is finally enough energy to get fronts through Florida so far this weekend, the frontal system uses most of its energy just eroding the ridge, leaving not much energy left for convective sustenance.

Most of the upper energy need to support strong convective systems will slide northeast to take a path of least resistance around the strong ridge.
A jet streak in the low levels....backside on our D4 system:
Some CAPE:

Quoting Bluestorm5:


The first image shows a EF3 tornado 5 miles to SE from me on April 16, 2011... too close for me!


3rd image produced a tornado that killed all my friends horses.....really upset her.
But the storm was amazing, I barely escaped the southern part of it to get back home.

And then got missed by every other supercell.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting LargoFl:
Coming right at you jedkins..................
A lot of rain down there.
Haruna