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U.S. gets unusually boring January weather; Thursday storm to ease Midwest drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:59 PM GMT on February 16, 2013

After an unusually intense period of extreme weather during 2011 and 2012, the U.S. had its quietest month in nearly two years during January 2013, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI). The index tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI during January 2013 was 14%, which was the lowest since the 12% value during February 2011. On average, about 20% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI. In 2012, just two months (October and February) had below-average CEI, so the weather of January 2013 was a welcome relief from our recent "new normal" of increased extreme weather. Of course, the month wasn't completely without notable weather--the tornado outbreak of January 29 - 30 generated 57 tornadoes, the second largest January tornado outbreak on record. January 2013 ranked as the 39th warmest January since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January; no states had a top-ten warmest January. The January warmth was enough to make the 12-month period ending in January 2013 the warmest such period for the contiguous U.S., with every state being warmer than average. Sixteen states, across the central U.S. and Northeast, were record warm, and 27 additional states were top ten warm.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for January 2013. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January, and no states had a top-ten warmest January. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Drought conditions improve slightly; wetter weather on the way to Midwest drought region
January 2013 had slightly above-average precipitation over the contiguous U.S., but there were notable wet and dry extremes. Louisiana had its wettest January on record, and Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, and Mississippi all had top-ten wettest January weather. Florida, California, and Connecticut all had top-ten driest January weather. Heavy rains in Alabama and Georgia helped give that region no areas of exceptional drought for the first time since January 10, 2012. However, the core of the drought area over the Midwest U.S. shrank only slightly, with the area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought going from 61% on January 1 to 56% on February 12. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued February 7, calls for new areas of drought to develop over Florida, Texas, and California. However, some improvement in drought conditions is expected over about 40% of the drought region by April 30. The latest forecasts from the GFS and European (ECMWF) model show a modest shift in the jet stream pattern during the remainder of February, which may allow more moisture-bearing low pressure systems to pass through the main portion of the Midwest drought region. One storm for sure will arrive on Thursday, and many areas of the drought region should enjoy their their wettest day in months.


Figure 2. Drought conditions as of February 12, 2013, showed that 56% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Saturday, February 23 at 7 pm EST. Almost the entire nation is expected to get precipitation, including the core of the drought region. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forward on Climate rally on February 17th in Washington, D.C. 
On Sunday, February 17, at noon EST, what is expected to be the largest climate rally in history will take place in Washington D.C. The rally is a project of the Sierra Club, 350.org, and the Hip Hop Caucus. The organizers mustered 15,000 protesters last year in D.C. to protest the potential approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline (meant to bring oil from Canada's tar sands into the U.S.) Protesting the potential approval of the pipeline will be a major focus of Sunday's rally, as well. More broadly, the rally aims to put pressure on President Obama to make good on the promises he made during Tuesday's State of the Union Address:

"But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change. Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods – all are now more frequent and more intense. We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science – and act before it’s too late….But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will."

It's about time that the President began talking about the reality of our changing climate, and the need to pursue aggressive actions to combat human-caused climate change. January 2013 was a welcome relief from the intense stretch of extreme weather our nation has suffered over the past two years. But the extreme weather of 2011 - 2012 is going to be more typical of our "new normal" of weather during the coming decades. Earth's climate is warming, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is the main cause. Extreme weather events are increasing in response to the warming climate. People can take cost-effective actions to limit the damage, and our lawmakers are going to come under increasing pressure from grass-roots efforts like the Forward on Climate rally to act to slow down climate change.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Dakster:
Hey Taz... Thought I would post this, just for you.

"The coldest temperature ever recorded was minus 128.6 degrees F in at the Russian research station in Vostok, Antarctica, on July 21, 1983."

And yes, +40F in Florida is cold to us Floridians. Weird, but when I am in the Northern US, the cold doesn't seem to bother me as much as it does here. I guess because here it is a humid, bone chilling cold, and one that you just don't think is possible here.



ouch now -128 be low is way too cold in fac you can be killed in sacs in that kind of cold
Quoting Astrometeor:


I thought TropicalAnalyst said that the severe weather potential on Thursday wasn't good. If it was, he would be talking about it, not moving on to next week.


That's what I said, it doesn't look great for severe weather.

I agreed with him.
#BREAKING 'Meteor Shower' Lights Up Night Sky Across Florida: Coast Guard


Coast Guard is flooded with calls from Jacksonville to Key West of what could be meteor shower. No injuries reported (NBC 6)
Quoting Tazmanian:
#BREAKING 'Meteor Shower' Lights Up Night Sky Across Florida: Coast Guard


Coast Guard is flooded with calls from Jacksonville to Key West of what could be meteor shower. No injuries reported (NBC 6)


This is a weather blog.
Quoting tornadodude:


That's what I said, it doesn't look great for severe weather.

I agreed with him.


Oh, Okay, TA tried to explain it too me, I guess I am just confused on the topic.
Quoting Tazmanian:
#BREAKING 'Meteor Shower' Lights Up Night Sky Across Florida: Coast Guard


Coast Guard is flooded with calls from Jacksonville to Key West of what could be meteor shower. No injuries reported (NBC 6)


That's odd.
Have been sitting on the deck since 4 pm, halfway between JAX and Key West. Haven't seen anything more than stars.

Why would you call the CG if you saw a meteor? Unless it was one like the one in Russia.
Quoting tornadodude:


This is a weather blog.
Space discussion is allowed.
Quoting RobDaHood:


That's odd.
Have been sitting on the deck since 4 pm, halfway between JAX and Key West. Haven't seen anything more than stars.

Why would you call the CG if you saw a meteor? Unless it was one like the one in Russia.



yes this is odd
ok here the link too NBC 6


Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Could you be a little more specific? Maybe a date?


Minnesota Climatology Working Group State Climatology Office

Early Winter Storm: October 3-5, 2012

An early October snow storm hit Northeast North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota from October 3rd-5th, 2012. This winter storm produced heavy, wet snow and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. As of 3PM on Thursday, October 4th, the highest snowfall total found was 14 inches was recorded 10 miles NNW of Badger in Roseau County.


EDIT: The forecast for areas in the Blizzard warning through Monday are up to 10 inches
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Space discussion is allowed.


nobody gets my satire :(
tornadodude, how do you see the 2013 U.S severe season in terms of being active with what has occured so far with the pattern?
Quoting tornadodude:


This is a weather blog.



I will post what evere I want in here un less I am told other waise from the mods or admins
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
tornadodude, how do you see the 2013 U.S severe season in terms of being active with what has occured so far with the pattern?


I'm not great with long term forecasting.

But, so far it seems like we have had a very active pattern. If this continues, we would likely see a very active severe weather season in the Midwest and Southeast.

However, the plains will likely suffer again as moisture is an issue. It's been incredibly dry in parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, and the Dakotas. Luckily the northern plains have been getting some snow storms this winter. If we can get a few more systems in the southern plains we will hopefully put a dent in the drought. It will probably take some severe weather to break the drought, but it's pretty bad.
Quoting tornadodude:


nobody gets my satire :(


Yes, that happens. Sometimes you have to be blunt.....
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I would imagine cold days in the plains would be rough, all that wind, yuck.

I prefer forests.
Quoting Jedkins01:



That is strange, are you in a low spot? Maybe the soil is particularly sandy in your area.

I know the temp back at my house in Pinellas will be similar to Clearwater and Tampa on CAA nights but on radiational cooling nights it will be several degrees cooler. I'll have to check with my parents but most likely we'll at least get close to freezing(33-34) with frost, maybe even freezing, even though overall no frost or freeze is expected in Pinellas. I live in a sandy area that is low ground there and a a lot less human development than most of Pinellas, which accounts for it getting colder.
I've looked at topographic maps and it doesn't really seem like my area is lower than the warmer areas I'm comparing my temp too. The area is heavily wooded with scattered pastures with lakes all around me. Now it's 35 here and 45 at TPA lol
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I've looked at topographic maps and it doesn't really seem like my area is lower than the warmer areas I'm comparing my temp too. The area is heavily wooded with scattered pastures with lakes all around me. Now it's 35 here and 45 at TPA lol


I have the same situation sorta. I live in a wooded area, yet some 10 miles away from Nashville and I am often colder than them by 4-6 degrees. I wake up in the morning, put on a jacket, get downtown, take off the jacket just because the temps are so different.
Wouldn't lakes influence patterns of heating / cooling?
Quoting Astrometeor:


I have the same situation sorta. I live in a wooded area, yet some 10 miles away from Nashville and I am often colder than them by 4-6 degrees. I wake up in the morning, put on a jacket, get downtown, take off the jacket just because the temps are so different.
microscale meteorology is interesting
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wouldn't lakes influence patterns of heating / cooling?


Lakes definitely would. Much like the ocean does.
Quoting tornadodude:


I'm not great with long term forecasting.

But, so far it seems like we have had a very active pattern. If this continues, we would likely see a very active severe weather season in the Midwest and Southeast.

However, the plains will likely suffer again as moisture is an issue. It's been incredibly dry in parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, and the Dakotas. Luckily the northern plains have been getting some snow storms this winter. If we can get a few more systems in the southern plains we will hopefully put a dent in the drought. It will probably take some severe weather to break the drought, but it's pretty bad.


Definitly the drought situation will be important to watch.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wouldn't lakes influence patterns of heating / cooling?
yep of course. But the lakes would warm the surrounding area if anything
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
yep of course. But the lakes would warm the surrounding area if anything
I do know surrounding seas have an insulating effect... here we never get quite as cold - or as hot - as mainland FL does... I'd expect a lake to create a similar effect, at least downwind. That is, if the lake was cooler than the surrounding land, wind blowing across it would reduce temps downwind..


The coming storm
Rising sea levels are forcing tough decisions about where and how to build near water
TCFA for 94S.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 235 NM RADIUS OF 19.1S 39.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 40.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S
39.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 40.0E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS THAT ARE CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTER
INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK; HOWEVER, MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
DISPLACING THE MAIN CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, ALBEIT WITH
VARYING TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

#525 That plot looks like an unfinished Valentines day card.
Quoting Skyepony:


The coming storm
Rising sea levels are forcing tough decisions about where and how to build near water


There is an "old" book out there titled "Design with Nature" by Ian McHarg Link. I will send you my copy if you have not seen it but only if you promise to return it. This book is from the 1960's and one chapter very much should be of interest to you. He was very much ahead of his time.

- hope the ponies are fine -
It cold out 38!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! in Loxahatchee!!!!!!!!!!!
Saw a huge bright meteor streak by Jupiter not too long ago, figured it was something like that going on. Saw it shoot by right in the telescope I've got. Can't make this stuff up! Strange though, there's no known meteor shower going on - yet we've been getting loads of activity the last few days.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wouldn't lakes influence patterns of heating / cooling?

Lakes sure do influence temperatures. If anyone knows where Lake St. Claire is, I go there fishing in the summer. It gets pretty hot on some days, 90s, but if you go out to a decent sized lake the temperature can be up to 10 degrees cooler sometimes. In the winter it is the opposite.
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 6:49 PM PST on February 17, 2013
Clear
57 °F
Clear
Humidity: 68%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 8.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

Today was 48.6/70.7 normal 44/67 It is 60.3 right now.
Time to Bail - Everyone Stay Safe - Extra Blankets for Florida - Sleep Well...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I wouldn't be surprised if a TCFA is issued for 94S tonight. It still needs a little more organization but it's getting there and models definitely want to develop it. Should be a fun one to watch for the next several days.


The ECMWF has been hinting on that system for about a week now. It's also forecast to hit Mozambique as a pretty strong yet small Tropical Cyclone.

72 hrs.


192 hrs.
Only three deg above freezing here in Odessa, fl!
Quoting AussieStorm:

The ECMWF has been hinting on that system for about a week now. It's also forecast to hit Mozambique as a pretty strong yet small Tropical Cyclone.

72 hrs.


192 hrs.


it's a very slow mover... worse situation for Mozambique...

Hi by the way
Posting from mid-central coast Maine--high winds and blowing snow--worse for us than Nemo--agree with TheCanadian that this storm is powerful for our area.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Only three deg above freezing here in Odessa, fl!

Could be worse, It's currently -51C in Oymyakon, Russian Federation. And it's 3:38pm
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


it's a very slow mover... worse situation for Mozambique...

Hi by the way

Hi,
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if this causes a lot of landslides, flash flooding and floods. They don't deal very well with heavy rain there.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hi,
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if this causes a lot of landslides, flash flooding and floods. They don't deal very well with heavy rain there.


I don't know about the topography of Mozambique.. If there are then people better prepare for this
Quoting AussieStorm:

Could be worse, It's currently -51C in Oymyakon, Russian Federation. And it's 3:38pm



of course it could be worse, always could be.

Still doesn't mean it's not cold to them.
Recent events have certainly raised awareness in meteor activity. For those interested in fireball activity (large meteors)the American Meteor Society maintains a active sighting log ...

Here is the link ... Link
Quoting docrod:
Recent events have certainly raised awareness in meteor activity. For those interested in fireball activity (large meteors)the American Meteor Society maintains a active sighting log ...

Here is the link ... Link
Here's a page for Event 383, this evening's Florida siting: http://www.amsmeteors.org/fireball_event/2013/383
Currently in Sydney.....


Loop
36 in Wesley Chapel Fl at this time (Pasco county)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't know about the topography of Mozambique.. If there are then people better prepare for this

They probably don't know about it.
Thanx Neapolitan ...

off to hide under blankets in bed tonight low 50's again - I know boo hoo - but no heat in this house!! :>) - take care all...

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...ON FEBRUARY 17TH THE THREE
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR KEY WEST WERE 46 DEGREES IN 1996...51
DEGREES IN 1958...AND 53 DEGREES WHICH WAS TIED IN 2010...1991...AND
1922. 2013 HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST THIRD PLACE
TODAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
Quoting AussieStorm:

They probably don't know about it.


eventually they will, especially when they themselves notice it begins a nonstop raining, or are warned by the weather service they have there
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't know about the topography of Mozambique.. If there are then people better prepare for this
At the southern end I think it's coastal plains, river delta type country, then as u head inland towards South Africa there are some highlands. There is definitely some flooding potential...

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==============================

At 10:00 AM PhST, The Low Pressure Area was estimated at 910 km east of General Santos City (6.0°N, 134.0°E).

This weather disturbance is expected to bring moderate to heavy rains (5-10 mm/hr) and thunderstorms in Mindanao particularly the regions of Davao, Caraga and SOCCSKSARGEN which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Residents in these areas are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures.
Quoting weatherpug:
Posting from mid-central coast Maine--high winds and blowing snow--worse for us than Nemo--agree with TheCanadian that this storm is powerful for our area.



yes
cross the sw highlands into the gulf of st lawrence she goes
gonna be rough night and first half of the morning

Quoting BahaHurican:
At the southern end I think it's coastal plains, river delta type country, then as u head inland towards South Africa there are some highlands. There is definitely some flooding potential...



very good there...

I see Mozambique and other countries around it have a stripe of flatland near the coast but with steep mountains right next to it... a big mudslide threat there
By the way...Plato is now a monster 954 mb over Nova Scotia...
Major Blizzard/very strong winds going on there



I'll have my map updated tomorrow... should be a classified storm by then
Image from Florida tonight (via James Reynolds)

Plato is so large... yet producing gale force winds over much of the northeast.
45 mph gusts over my area in SW Conn.

Quoting tornadodude:
Image from Florida tonight (via James Reynolds)



Looks like December 21st is a little late.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Looks like December 21st is a little late.


heh

I guess so.
Forecasts for Mt. Washington are ridiculous.

Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 10. Strong and damaging winds, with a northwest wind 105 to 115 mph decreasing to 90 to 100 mph in the afternoon.

Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah it's amazing how quickly it can change. Was 25 and snowing with a north wind Friday night, today, warm SE wind, hit 71

All depends on which way the wind blows for us. it's always north or south haha



Yeah weather in the plains sure isn't boring, the flat open terrain really does account for the sudden extreme change in weather, and people say weather changes quick in Florida? Yeah right, they need to head to Kansas or Oklahoma, lol.
Quoting Tazmanian:
#BREAKING 'Meteor Shower' Lights Up Night Sky Across Florida: Coast Guard


Coast Guard is flooded with calls from Jacksonville to Key West of what could be meteor shower. No injuries reported (NBC 6)



Breaking News, I live in Florida haven't seen any, and I'm always watching the sky, lol. I Mean sure there could be meteors, but I've seen a lot of them in my lifetime as someone who's always staring at the sky.

I have seen a couple that actually scarred me, that were very bright and spectacular. But those were very rare occasions.

Stuff is just spreading around and making the news after the event in Russia. It's just like the media freaked out and attempted or gave the feel that shootings are way more common then they are after the shooting in CT.

It's just the media's way capitalizing off trending material, nothing new.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah weather in the plains sure isn't boring, the flat open terrain really does account for the sudden extreme change in weather, and people say weather changes quick in Florida? Yeah right, they need to head to Kansas or Oklahoma, lol.


LOL

Yeah it's entertaining anyway, still about 60 degrees with a stiff southerly breeze right now
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Forecasts for Mt. Washington are ridiculous.

Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 10. Strong and damaging winds, with a northwest wind 105 to 115 mph decreasing to 90 to 100 mph in the afternoon.



Normal weather for them. I visited them in the summer when I was young. No one told me that it is colder on top of a mountain even if it is 80 degrees at the base.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I've looked at topographic maps and it doesn't really seem like my area is lower than the warmer areas I'm comparing my temp too. The area is heavily wooded with scattered pastures with lakes all around me. Now it's 35 here and 45 at TPA lol


Yeah mesoscale weather effects can be mysterious sometimes. I somewhat specialize in studying mesoscale meteorology because it often gets overlooked by forecasters and heavily so by global models. Probably because I'm very meticulous and like to narrow things down and study them in close detail repeatedly, especially in meteorology.

With that said, I'm not entirely sure why your region would get so much colder than surrounding ones. Maybe your local area is very efficient at producing calm surface winds on these type of nights? After all, clam winds is the most important factor of all to radiational cooling besides being in a more rural area.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Forecasts for Mt. Washington are ridiculous.

Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 10. Strong and damaging winds, with a northwest wind 105 to 115 mph decreasing to 90 to 100 mph in the afternoon.




Yeah I love seeing those forecasts and observations there. The same weather that happens once every 100 years if not more for most locations happens there all the time.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I love seeing those forecasts and observations there. The same weather that happens once every 100 years if not more for most locations happens there all the time.


holy crap!!! how can a building stand there? Better be well constructed
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL

Yeah it's entertaining anyway, still about 60 degrees with a stiff southerly breeze right now



I would imagine it gets very rough on the body though sometimes, winter here is like that, bounces between legitimately cold weather to balmy 70's and 80's in the same week. I know when it goes up and down too much it gets rough on the system lol.

One thing I noticed the is really different from here and that area is that surprisingly dry air masses can crank out monster storms thanks to very cold air aloft that sweeps over the plains and strong dynamics with those spring lows.

Its weird seeing thunderstorms put out tornado warning that don't actually look like that dangerous of storms because they have kind of a ragged appearance. Those LP cells.

Of course I'm sure you can get some real soakers in the summer too sometimes as the plains can also allow humid tropical air to surge well north from the gulf quickly.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Normal weather for them. I visited them in the summer when I was young. No one told me that it is colder on top of a mountain even if it is 80 degrees at the base.


no one should have to tell you that... lol
Quoting Jedkins01:



I would imagine it gets very rough on the body though sometimes, winter here is like that, bounces between legitimately cold weather to balmy 70's and 80's in the same week. I know when it goes up and down too much it gets rough on the system lol.

One thing I noticed the is really different from here and that area is that surprisingly dry air masses can crank out monster storms thanks to very cold air aloft that sweeps over the plains and strong dynamics with those spring lows.

Its weird seeing thunderstorms put out tornado warning that don't actually look like that dangerous of storms because they have kind of a ragged appearance. Those LP cells.

Of course I'm sure you can get some real soakers in the summer too sometimes as the plains can also allow humid tropical air to surge well north from the gulf quickly.


Oh yeah, there are some definite extremes.

LP storms don't usually produce tornadoes, due to the lack of moisture, however they frequently produce large hail, up to softball size (sometimes larger), but they sure are incredible.

This is an LP supercell, notice there is no precip coming from the base, but there appears to be large hail to the right


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
===========================

A weak low is located in the Monsoon trough near 11S 107E, about 200 km southeast of Christmas Island. The low is near stationary and is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours.
by the way ... it has been a lot of rain but now it has chaned over to snow and the wind is getting really bad on the back side. posting from central NS
looks like a blizzard out there now
Quoting Dragod66:
by the way ... it has been a lot of rain but now it has chaned over to snow and the wind is getting really bad on the back side. posting from central NS


*changed* Isaac's spelling has really gotten to everyone today lol.

Hope you enjoy that blizzard of yours, wish I could have one.
Quoting Astrometeor:


*changed* Isaac's spelling has really gotten to everyone today lol.

Hope you enjoy that blizzard of yours, wish I could have one.


rather amusing..Some humor is good every now and then...
Quoting tornadodude:


no one should have to tell you that... lol


I was young, never been to the top of a mountain. How was I supposed to know that temps change with elevation?

They do have some pretty good hot chocolate up there though.

And it is cool to take pics of the blast doors that hold back those winds.
Meanwhile, in Altamonte Springs (north Orlando) we have extensive car-top frost (except for my car and a few others, right on the southeast edge of the parking lot) and temperatures in the mid 30s. This is the first time I have actually seen frost here since 2010, oddly enough. I think we will actually get to freezing here for the first time in a couple years.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Breaking News, I live in Florida haven't seen any, and I'm always watching the sky, lol. I Mean sure there could be meteors, but I've seen a lot of them in my lifetime as someone who's always staring at the sky.

I have seen a couple that actually scarred me, that were very bright and spectacular. But those were very rare occasions.

Stuff is just spreading around and making the news after the event in Russia. It's just like the media freaked out and attempted or gave the feel that shootings are way more common then they are after the shooting in CT.

It's just the media's way capitalizing off trending material, nothing new.


I'm starting to wonder if that close pass asteroid had a few small companions with it (or loose bits?) that got caught into earths gravity being much smaller or were on a slightly diff trajectory and couldn't make it past Earth? Peculiar a few large sightings at once...though could be sensationalism following Russia I suppose too
Good Morning Folks!...double pot of Coffee is perked for when you get here..have a great day everyone
After this cold morning we warm up Florida.....
Morning all. Especially Largo....

How cold is it there so far? We're back up to 61. It's calm outside, and dry. Dewpoint must be in the 40s....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. Especially Largo....

How cold is it there so far? We're back up to 61. It's calm outside, and dry. Dewpoint must be in the 40s....
good Morning, its cold by me, in the low 40's but across the bay in tampa and inland its in the 30's and north of me in the 20's..brrrr...but the warm up begins today
I'll contribute coconut and pineapple tart to the sideboard to go with that coffee, Largo... I sure need the sugar rush this morning... lol

Quoting BahaHurican:
I'll contribute coconut and pineapple tart to the sideboard to go with that coffee, Largo... I sure need the sugar rush this morning... lol

..LOL i hear ya
Morning' Gang!

Afternoon Mr. Aussie!
It's supposed to get up to 84 here today, but I'm not sure how.... lol

One cold day is enough for me though. I won't be complaining...
Tuesday the action gets into high gear.............
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's supposed to get up to 84 here today, but I'm not sure how.... lol

One cold day is enough for me though. I won't be complaining...
yeah I dont like the cold either, into the 80's here also later in the week
Morning, IRguy....
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I'm starting to wonder if that close pass asteroid had a few small companions with it (or loose bits?) that got caught into earths gravity being much smaller or were on a slightly diff trajectory and couldn't make it past Earth? Peculiar a few large sightings at once...though could be sensationalism following Russia I suppose too


Mornin' Bev!

Most, including the one in Russia, are coming from a different direction than the near miss..
nam-hires namer
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning' Gang!

Afternoon Mr. Aussie!
good morning!..coffee is perked..warm up
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20130218 06 UTC
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Good morning Baha!

I have to go do a shift at the Snook Nook, so my hands will be in water all morning.. brrrr... y'all have a great morning, be back laters!
morning all day off today its our mid winter long weekend no work till tuseday morning
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 AM EST Monday 18 February 2013
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 30.3 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 5.9°F
Dewpoint: 1.6°F
Humidity: 82 %
Wind: W 2 mph
Wind Chill: 1
gee mississippi cant catch a break this winter huh...
only stormy area this am is along canada east coast

back in a while gonna go back lay down for a few only got up to check the temps
its cold glad i dont have to go out in it

I see we have TC Crising.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
back in a while gonna go back lay down for a few only got up to check the temps
its cold glad i dont have to go out in it

Sorry I do have to go out.... lol.... I'm out for while... will check in later today as time permits.
26.6 and still going down Zephyrhills fl. There goes the plants.
Quoting severstorm:
26.6 and still going down Zephyrhills fl. There goes the plants.
I lost quiet a lot of my plants when it got to 113.9°F last month. They got burnt pretty badly, now they are just brown.
All the cold air in Florida is off to my east this morning. 44.8F on da Bayou Grande this morning. Have a good day all. Gotta get ready for work now.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I lost quiet a lot of my plants when it got to 113.9°F last month. They got burnt pretty badly, now they are just brown.
Hey, You can have that heat. I like the cooler weather so this i dont mine. Just have to replace the plants again.
Jupiter is currently just beside the moon.

Currently 61 outside, 66 inside... Still not seeing a 24-degree warm-up in the cards for today, but time will tell!

Going out into the chill.... lol... later, all!
26.6 F in Macon, Ga this morning, no snow yet.
Coffee and Apple Fritters are ready!
Really cold here in NYC today
613. MahFL
Quoting tornadodude:


This is a weather blog.


Not exclusively.
46 in West Palm Beach. Highs @ 70. Back up to 80's for rest of the week. Enjoy the cool while you can.
Got to 38 in Loxahatchee!! it cold out!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
46 in West Palm Beach. Highs @ 70. Back up to 80's for rest of the week. Enjoy the cool while you can.
Good Morning

27 Degrees here and possible snow again for NC/SC?

SPC today.

Good morning. Got down to 36 in Fort Myers. Currently it's 41° and our high should rebound nicely to 71°
A lot of rain on the way..should help with the drought

Low of 29.6 in Odessa, fl. The coolest night this winter besides last night was 36. I have lived here 16 years and don't recall any winter with less than three freezes. Too warm
29 degrees in my location, fun stuff.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
29 degrees in my location, fun stuff.


Is that a record low for your location?
I think the Palm Beach crowd had to bust out the mink coats this weekend.
Up in Gainesville, had my first ice scraping morning of the winter. I don't know that we are getting much of an evaporation break during our dry season, but I'll take what cool temperatures we can get while they are here. Frost should lower some of the transpiration too.
air is still here..not even a breeze,cold and frost everywhere,on the roofs on the grass etc..come on sun, do your thing lol
7-day for Tampa Bay area..............
Quoting LargoFl:
air is still here..not even a breeze,cold and frost everywhere,on the roofs on the grass etc..come on sun, do your thing lol
We've got mostly cloudy here, so sun is not going to help much... also wind has picked up, so it will feel even colder than it actually is...

Anybody with a quick line on a wind chill calculator?
Quoting BahaHurican:

Thanks for sharing this... this is what I was getting at - that while people may have some concern about the climate and negative impacts of changes, it's well down the list after food and security.



I agree that it is so..
But should it be?
I'm thinking WATER should be high on the list as well..
Who's in charge of these issues?
It boils down to US..
Yes' we are in charge of whom we select and vote into offices of government that can change "the status quo" thinking into a problem solving ones..
That's right people,it's our own fault..
Like it or not..
Could go on and on with this but will not do that here on this blog..
I will leave you with this video and it's message to contemplate..
It's from 1970 and still rings true today..




Good Morning All..
Temp. shows to be 47..
Went and got the local newspaper and was frosty all around the yard..
Maybe a cool spot last night here..
Anyway..
A virtually cloud free Florida this am..
Don't think it will continue though..
Forecasers calling for 60% pm chance of rain..



Quoting BahaHurican:
It's supposed to get up to 84 here today, but I'm not sure how.... lol

One cold day is enough for me though. I won't be complaining...


Pretty sure they meant 48 ;)
Beautiful morning..
Blue Angels out practicing this am..
Don't kow if anyone knows this,but military cut-backs are threatening to end the Blue Angels..
Sad..


Interesting tidbit about the lack of a pattern in the damage caused by the Chelyabinsk meteor
The roof of the zinc factory that collapsed was reinforced with a lattice of steel beams and supported by concrete joists that are now broken, jutting upward with mangled re-bar protruding.
Windows on a neighboring house blew in with such force that the frames went with them. Yet a few yards away on Sverdlovsky Street, the cosmos spared a seemingly vulnerable Hundai dealership, a three-story cube sheathed in glass, with glistening display models inside. Not a window broke.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
only stormy area this am is along canada east coast



That circulation, looks kinda like a hurricane!
Models forecasting 1-1.5 inches of snow for me in the next 48 hours.
CAPE Values on Friday.

Cold weather yesterday killed my mulberry crop. cold to day damaged the mulberry bushes (trees)
Not too much change to "Plato"...955 mb, just a bit weaker

Modis picked up the fires in Australia today..

The GFS is showing a huge sub 990 storm for me next Wendsday.



Fast Growing Sunspot / M-Flare
A new Sunspot numbered 1675 continues to expand and is now capable of producing M-Class solar flares. An impulsive M1.9 event was observed at 15:50 UTC on Sunday morning. Continue to monitor this region for further activity.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 Feb 17 1547 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Feb 17 1547 UTC
End Time: 2013 Feb 17 1551 UTC Duration: 4 minutes
Peak Flux: 340 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.


Solar Filament..
643. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:
Some very cool clouds around New Zealand today..



That is a terrific Shot P'Cola Absolutely beautiful !!
Quoting VR46L:


That is a terrific Shot P'Cola Absolutely beautiful !!


Modis is soo cool !!
I would have never thought I would be able to visually experience the world,in near real time, they way we do now..
Simply amazing to me..
Invest 94S



Are you sure this isn't a depression, or even a TS?
646. VR46L
Slight Risk today for Tx and La





SPC AC 181257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR E TX...NW LA...AND SRN AR...

...E TX/NW LA/SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
PRIMARY MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATING FROM OK/AR TO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE IN NE KS WILL
DEVELOP NEWD AND CONSOLIDATE WITH A SEPARATE LOW NOW IN E CENTRAL
MN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO TX THIS MORNING...WITH MID 50S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND LOW 60S ALONG
THE LOWER TX COAST...LARGELY AS FORECAST BY RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM.
CONTINUED NWD/NEWD MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
BENEATH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS
OK/TX. THE CAP WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
RESULT OF SOMEWHAT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS...THOUGH A
FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE W EDGE
OF THE RICHER MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL INTO E TX. MODIFIED OBSERVED
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG INTO THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN WITH
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS NE TX/SE
OK...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK BUOYANCY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS STORMS LIKELY ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR CONFIGURATION...PRIOR TO THE CONVECTION MOVING E/NE OF
THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 02/18/201
Models seem to agree on a trough in the US just after the thursday system, followed by another weaker (for now) trough after that.

The GFS seems to mainly trying to bring back winter....all the way to the florida keys.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Models seem to agree on a trough in the US just after the thursday system, followed by another weaker (for now) trough after that.


See my post in 640
Quoting VR46L:
Slight Risk today for Tx and La





SPC AC 181257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR E TX...NW LA...AND SRN AR...

...E TX/NW LA/SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
PRIMARY MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATING FROM OK/AR TO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE IN NE KS WILL
DEVELOP NEWD AND CONSOLIDATE WITH A SEPARATE LOW NOW IN E CENTRAL
MN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO TX THIS MORNING...WITH MID 50S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND LOW 60S ALONG
THE LOWER TX COAST...LARGELY AS FORECAST BY RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM.
CONTINUED NWD/NEWD MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
BENEATH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS
OK/TX. THE CAP WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
RESULT OF SOMEWHAT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS...THOUGH A
FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE W EDGE
OF THE RICHER MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL INTO E TX. MODIFIED OBSERVED
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG INTO THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN WITH
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS NE TX/SE
OK...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK BUOYANCY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS STORMS LIKELY ORGANIZE
INTO A LINEAR CONFIGURATION...PRIOR TO THE CONVECTION MOVING E/NE OF
THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 02/18/201


Increased the Wind Outlook as well

Found this timelapse of NEMO

I'm telling ya the pattern sure is reminding me of 05..mmmm.Watch out later in down the road.They sure have been in a wet pattern.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm telling ya the pattern sure is reminding me of 05..mmmm.Watch out later in down the road.They sure have been in a wet pattern.


The GFS is showing a sub 990 for me next week! This pattern is nuts!
Slowly but surely Mississippi River is improving downstream..



Stream Site:Belle Chase ,La


DESCRIPTION:
Latitude 51'25", Longitude 58'40" NAD27
Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Hydrologic Unit 08090100
Drainage area: 1,130,000 square miles
Contributing drainage area: 1,110,000 square miles,
Datum of gage: -6.88 feet above NAVD88.

Hydrograh for Mississippi River at Belle Chase,La..




Upstream is improving at a much slower rate..

Stream Site


DESCRIPTION:
Latitude 43'01'37.3", Longitude 91'10'21" NAD27
Clayton County, Iowa, Hydrologic Unit 07060001
Drainage area: 67,500 square miles
Contributing drainage area: 67,500 square miles,
Datum of gage: 604.84 feet above NGVD29

Hydrograh for McGregor,Ia



Next Chance of T-storms for S FL is Saturday and Sunday!!:)
Anglospherics: I feel bad for whatever dinosaurs were still alive in the Urals until today.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The GFS is showing a sub 990 for me next week! This pattern is nuts!
Oh I had forgot to mention I was talking about the northern gulf coast.But anyway these winter storms have been unusually strong this year.In every basin actually.
Aaaand the blog is dead -_-.
AND THE WARM UP BEGINS..............
NWS says thursday,GFS says Tuesday hmmmm..........
Quoting aspectre:
Looks like folks pay attention when there's really something NEW in the news.
NewYorkTimes 10 most emailed story links

1. Size of Blast and Number of Injuries Are Seen as Rare for a Rock From Space
2. Earth May Not Be Ready for the Next Close Encounter
3. Vindication for Entrepreneurs Watching Sky: Yes, It Can Fall
4. Shock Wave of Fireball Meteor Rattles Siberia, Injuring 1,200
5. Dashcams, Meant to Record Accidents and Mayhem, Capture Cosmic Event
6. After Assault From the Heavens, Russians Search for Clues and Count Blessings
7. A Flash in Russian Skies, as Inspiration for Fantasy
8. Answers to Reader Questions About the Meteorite Strike in Russia
9. Meteor Is Not Siberia's First Brush With Objects Falling From Space
10. Fatalistic, Reckless, Distrustful

The last being on commentary about Russian's attitudes toward the meteor.


I know people who are still complacent as could be after the Russian meteorite. "Well.. it won't happen in our lifetimes." I hate the mentality people take to brush off planetary defense, even after a 10 ton piece of rock came out of no where and hurt over a thousand people. Heck I hate it when people take that mentality about anything related to space exploration or space discoveries. You'd think the motivation for self preservation would be worth it.

But I guess that's another conversation for another time.
wow check out the northern portion of this storm..
..THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN...GULF AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO
NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD. SEE
APPROPRIATE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES ON
THIS SYSTEM.
This week's CPC ENSO update in the form of text will be released on Tuesday because of the holiday but the graphic was updated showing Nino 3.4 warming up a little bit.

Quoting ncstorm:


Increased the Wind Outlook as well



Yes. And It looks like Wed-Thurs might setup with some strong to severe storms widespread throughout the Southern plains and Southeastern US. The wind shear, temperature/moisture confluence and CAPE values these last couple months seem more like a March/April setup than Winter.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Aaaand the blog is dead -_-.


bring something up.
interesting area in the west carib. looks like a few showers sign of things to come?
Quoting islander101010:
interesting area in the west carib. looks like a few showers sign of things to come?


where are you taking it to?
Quoting islander101010:
interesting area in the west carib. looks like a few showers sign of things to come?
Good morning all. I went to the satelitte loop on the Tropical weather page here and when I changed it to infrared, there was nothing in the Western Caribbean.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
When is this suppose to happen?.
Quoting islander101010:
interesting area in the west carib. looks like a few showers sign of things to come?


There is the tail end of a front in the Western Caribbean causing low level clouds with a few light to moderate showers so nothing out of the ordinary in that area.

Capital weather gang says are chances of snow are fading fast.Not surprised.From here on out I suspect all rain storms.


storms firing up in texas
Still only 68 degrees so far in Nassau. We may not make it to 74, much less 84, today... if it doesn't warm up considerably by tonight, we may fall to the high 50s overnight. That's pretty much as cold as it gets here... I think our all time record low is 48 or so.
Quoting washingtonian115:
When is this suppose to happen?.


138 hrs... about 5 days, by the end of this week...

Remember: It's a GFS long-run forecast
next weekend around the northeast is interesting...
CAROLINAS' SNOW...nice shots by the way.. By Accuweather.com

Greenville, SC




Myrtle Beach, SC


There may be a tornado or two today across far eastern Texas or western Louisiana.



MORNING LOWS

Bartow, 30
Bradenton 35, (tied record low from 1977)
Brandon, 32
Brooksville, 27
Crystal River, 27
Hernando, 21
Inverness, 26
Lakeland, 32
Lakewood Ranch, 38
Mac Dill AFB, 32
New Port Richey, 30
Pinellas Park, 37
Polk City, 29
St. Pete/Clearwater Airport, 44
St. Petersburg airport, 48
Tampa, 38
Tarpon Springs, 33
Weeki Wachee, 24
Wesley Chapel, 31
Winter Haven, 36
Zephyrhills, 28
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON...

.AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE PLAINS...STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
Quoting LargoFl:
MORNING LOWS

Bartow, 30
Bradenton 35, (tied record low from 1977)
Brandon, 32
Brooksville, 27
Crystal River, 27
Hernando, 21
Inverness, 26
Lakeland, 32
Lakewood Ranch, 38
Mac Dill AFB, 32
New Port Richey, 30
Pinellas Park, 37
Polk City, 29
St. Pete/Clearwater Airport, 44
St. Petersburg airport, 48
Tampa, 38
Tarpon Springs, 33
Weeki Wachee, 24
Wesley Chapel, 31
Winter Haven, 36
Zephyrhills, 28


Wow that's chilly for that neck of the woods! (I lived in Sarasota once for 3 months, Dec-Feb).

The locals are bundling up, and the "snow-birds" are thinking about wearing a jacket. ;)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND AS A RESULT
WINDS WILL VEER TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AND BRING AN INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A LARGE AREA OF MARINE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL CROSS THE COAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND BRING
PERIODS OF OVERCAST SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...MILDER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPS ONLY FALL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP BELOW 60 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST OF MARTIN
AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES.

$$
Quoting LargoFl:


Im looking for a rain/snow mix for FRI, not just rain...
Quoting DFWdad:


Wow that's chilly for that neck of the woods! (I lived in Sarasota once for 3 months, Dec-Feb).

The locals are bundling up, and the "snow-birds" are thinking about wearing a jacket. ;)
..yes it was sure cold, had frost all over this morning, gone now, our normal temps should be in the low 70's..which is coming back now..cold fronts dont last too long here
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.
THE GREATEST WINTRY THREAT ELSEWHERE IS FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
MORNING IF PRECIPITATION CAN ARRIVE BEFORE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know people who are still complacent as could be after the Russian meteorite. "Well.. it won't happen in our lifetimes." I hate the mentality people take to brush off planetary defense, even after a 10 ton piece of rock came out of no where and hurt over a thousand people. Heck I hate it when people take that mentality about anything related to space exploration or space discoveries. You'd think the motivation for self preservation would be worth it.

But I guess that's another conversation for another time.


I read the '10 ton' estimate, too. NASA now saying it was 10,000 tons.

The meteor that exploded over Russia Friday was slightly larger than previously thought and more powerful, too, NASA scientists say.

The Russian meteor explosion over the city of Chelyabinsk, on Friday (Feb. 15), injured more than 1,000 people and blew out windows across the region in a massive blast captured on cameras by frightened witnesses. Friday afternoon, NASA scientists estimated the meteor was space rock about 50 feet (15 meters) and sparked a blast equivalent of a 300-kiloton explosion. The energy estimate was later increased to 470 kilotons.

But late Friday, NASA revised its estimates on the size and power of the devastating meteor explosion. The meteor's size is now thought to be slightly larger %u2014 about 55 feet (17 m) wide %u2014 with the power of the blast estimate of about 500 kilotons, 30 kilotons higher than before, NASA officials said in a statement. [See video of the intense meteor explosion]

The meteor was also substantially more massive than thought as well. Initial estimated pegged the space rock's mass at about 7,000 tons. Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., now say the meteor weighed about 10,000 tons and was travelling 40,000 mph (64,373 km/h) when it exploded.
So about 1/3 the size of the one that we were able to track?
Lots more pieces of what are purported to be pieces of the Chelyabinsk meteorite are popping up online--along with many that are clearly nothing of the sort. From Avito (Russia's eBay):
Given the initial size of the impactor and the ensuing explosion, it's possible that up to a million pounds of the rock actually reached earth, so it's completely likely that many shards would have been found already. But much as I'd like a piece of the meteorite, I'd hold off on making an online purchase at the moment--and I certainly wouldn't buy based on a fuzzy photo on a classified ad site... ;-)
Quoting indianrivguy:


Mornin' Bev!

Most, including the one in Russia, are coming from a different direction than the near miss..



Hi ho! Ah ok. So odd though!

I have a friend on FB who's quite into conspiracy theories and going on about missles etc :P At least my thoughts were of natural cause! haha
TCFA issued for Invest 98W.

WTPN21 PGTW 181700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.7N 128.6E TO 7.4N 120.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 181630Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.8N
127.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N
131.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE; HOWEVER, A 181248Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE, SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181322Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND STRONGER (ABOUT
25 KNOTS) EASTERLY, GRADIENT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC. A SHIP OBSERVATION APPROXIMATELY 220NM NORTH REPORTED WINDS
040 AT 22 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1005MB. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE BETWEEN 28 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING
LLCC STRUCTURE AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

Already 53 here in S C IL, have a wind advisory for this afternoon. High S winds arrive with the rain, then a cool down as it passes, low teens for Wed. morning low ahead of the Thurs. storm. Hopefully it will be snow or sleet, not freezing rain. Then we head back up. Quite the up and down month, really whole winter.

Glad to see some moisture out in the plains and hope Doc is right about the pattern change for them, would be nice to see severe drought areas get below 50%.
Afternoon all!

Looks like a pretty significant severe weather event for parts of Louisiana and Mississippi on Thursday.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
WITHIN ONE BRANCH OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW CURVING INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT CONCERNING THE
FIRST IMPULSE WITHIN THIS REGIME...A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BETTER GULF RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AT LEAST IN A CORRIDOR
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERSPREAD BY DIFLUENT UPPER
FLOW...JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ALONG THE TRACK OF A
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE... WHERE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONAL ON THE
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VIGOROUS IMPULSE MAY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES IS TOO LARGE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO ASCERTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..KERR.. 02/18/2013
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.
Quoting Dakster:
So about 1/3 the size of the one that we were able to track?


2012 DA14 is estimated at 190,000 tons, so the Russian one was just 5% of that mass.
708. txjac
Quoting barbamz:
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.


Simply awesome, so powerful, so destructive, so sad
Thanks for posting
. [sorry, a glitch]
Quoting barbamz:
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.


That was spectacular! :) Thanks for posting! :D
Quoting barbamz:
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.



Last few seconds of that video put it all in perspective. What it took 100 years to do before now only took 10 years. Scary, faster and faster.
Some gusty winds for the central US States... with snow for the northern states later..



Click picture for larger view...

I'll also have up Invest 94 (SW Indian Ocean) when it gets upgraded as well.
Quoting barbamz:
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.


Very impressive. There's a really surreal bit at 1 minute 50 seconds, when a huge, black mass shaped like a whale emerges from the sea. It even has an 'eye' where a whale's eye would be.
Quoting yonzabam:


Very impressive. There's a really surreal bit at 1 minute 50 seconds, when a huge, black mass shaped like a whale emerges from the sea. It even has an 'eye' where a whale's eye would be.


Exactly, I too had the impression of a monstrous whale.
Quoting barbamz:
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.


that was spectacular!!!
The mid-level energy of Winter Storm Q is currently southeast of Anchorage, AK. This energy is expected to dig into the Southwest tomorrow and produce heavy snowfall across the West by Wednesday morning (California mountains are expected >1'). The system will really begin to take shape after that point, delivering a major blizzard (>1') for the northern Plains and a threat for severe weather across the South on Thursday.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The mid-level energy of Winter Storm Q is currently southeast of Anchorage, AK. This energy is expected to dig into the Southwest tomorrow and produce heavy snowfall across the West by Wednesday morning (California mountains are expected >1'). The system will really begin to take shape after that point, delivering a major blizzard (>1') for the northern Plains and a threat for severe weather across the South on Thursday.



You said it wasnt worth getting a name...and only 6" of snow....now it's 1 ft?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


You said it wasnt worth getting a name...and only 6" of snow....now it's 1 ft?

Today's storm was/is not worthy of a name...this is Thursday's.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


You said it wasnt worth getting a name...and only 6" of snow....now it's 1 ft?


ya know many here are on a roller coaster..
Looks like the cap has at least partially broken in SETX.



If they consolidate even more, we may even see a spinner or two!

Quoting yonzabam:


2012 DA14 is estimated at 190,000 tons, so the Russian one was just 5% of that mass.


Wow... Glad THAT didn't hit...

well, it's out there now... WINTER STORM Q







Based on this future radar forecast image, I am guessing the cap will break around 5:00 PM this evening.

For the bloggers in Tampa Bay, how is that fire at the port going? Did they put it out yet?
Looking at my forecast and it is 52.7° here right now and that is more than the High tomorrow is forecast to be. Breaking out those extra blankets.

Monday
Partly Cloudy
65° F | 45° F

Tuesday
Chance of a Thunderstorm
49° F | 36° F

Wednesday
Chance of Rain
54° F | 34° F

Thursday
Chance of Rain
56° F | 34° F

Friday
Partly Cloudy
59° F | 43° F
If anyone wants to answer the question about which 2013 Atlantic name(s) will be the big one(s) you can go to my blog.

Link
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looks like the cap has at least partially broken in SETX.



If they consolidate even more, we may even see a spinner or two!


CAPE is on the increase as well.

Quoting barbamz:
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.


Never saw anything like it.
730. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:
Looking at my forecast and it is 52.7° here right now and that is more than the High tomorrow is forecast to be. Breaking out those extra blankets.

Monday
Partly Cloudy
65° F | 45° F

Tuesday
Chance of a Thunderstorm
49° F | 36° F

Wednesday
Chance of Rain
54° F | 34° F

Thursday
Chance of Rain
56° F | 34° F

Friday
Partly Cloudy
59° F | 43° F


Aw you poor thing !!

Got to a high of 50°today but it felt like 65° to me absolutely Beautiful and is to be similar all week!!

Amazing what a completely blue sky with both the sun and the moon visible all day can to do for my mood!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

CAPE is on the increase as well.



The GFS doesn't show it winding down until midnight.
Quoting Grothar:


Never saw anything like it.


Wow, Grothar, that really means something, with respect to your methusalem age, lol ... But I was startled by myself when I found this video some days ago.
This is a data base for known impact craters on Earth for anyone interested. There are great pictures and info on each impact site...Link
Quoting barbamz:
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.


Thanks Barbamz!

Quoting Whale, "Ooops, sorry... just catching my breath... darn, what a headache, thought it was thin ice..."
;)
The GFS shows the CAPE values at thier highest at 9:00 PM tonight!

Quoting DocNDswamp:


Thanks Barbamz!

Quoting Whale, "Ooops, sorry... just catching my breath... darn, what a headache, thought it was thin ice..."
;)

Lol, Doc!!
737. VR46L
Looks like a nasty day tomorrow for the North Mid West and a rainy day again for the Northern Gulf States

Well, it's going to be a long trip with this one..

739. VR46L
Loop Embedded
INVEST 94S



Look at me in the eye ant tell me this is not a TS!
Quoting FunnelVortex:
INVEST 94S



Look at me in the eye ant tell me this is not a TS!


they are pretty slow for this... which ever office is in charge

This is what I found in the other site...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


they are pretty slow for this... which ever office is in charge


The area has been an obvious TS since this morning. There is even a surface circulation being picked up by bouys and ships!
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The area has been an obvious TS since this morning. There is even a surface circulation being picked up by bouys and ships!


I know what you mean, trust me.. (but...)
Quoting barbamz:


Wow, Grothar, that really means something, with respect to your methusalem age, lol ... But I was startled by myself when I found this video some days ago.


Maybe I should have added ...in this century. :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I know what you mean, trust me..


It is looking pretty healthy, I wonder if it will have an eye within the next 24-48 hours.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It is looking pretty healthy, I wonder if it will have an eye within the next 24-48 hours.


well, you went too far now..

I'll have my map up IF they ever upgrade this storm
Quoting FunnelVortex:
INVEST 94S



Look at me in the eye ant tell me this is not a TS!

That is not a TS.
It's not classified as a cyclone yet... we can tell it is unofficially
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 09-20122013
22:00 PM RET February 18 2013
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (998 hPa) located at 19.9S 40.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.5S 40.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.0S 40.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 21.7S 41.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.3S 40.8E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================
Deep convective activity has consolidated over the recent past hours and has progressively organized. Low level circulation center remains however difficult to precisely locate and recent microwaves imagery (SSMIS F17 at 1522z and TRMM at 1540z) do not allow to depict an obvious low level center. Last SSMIS F18 at 1702z covers partially the system, showing only the eastern semi-circle but confirms that deep convective activity pattern is currently improving.

Within the next 24-36 hours, the low is expected to keep on drifting slowly southward toward a weak in the subtropical belt and is therefore expected to slowly intensify under the upper level ridge and over high energetic potential seas (29-30C).

Beyond, available numerical weather prediction models differ greatly. European models purpose an erratic track with a very slow movement generally southward. GFDN suggests a westward then northwestward track under the steering influence of the mid level ridge building over the austral Africa. GFS model purposes a southward then southeastward track that cruises oversea in the south of Madagascar and then evacuates in the extratropical area. RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF but with a very high uncertainty.

Consequently, forecast intensity that depends on the track, is also important. The slow and erratic track expected by RSMC should suggest a limitation of intensification due to negative oceanic retro-action by cooling water surface.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That is not a TS.




Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISING
11:00 PM PhST February 18 2013
==============================

Tropical Depression "CRISING" has maintained its strength as it threatens southeastern Mindanao

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Crising (1004 hPa) located at 6.2°N 139.7°E or 470 km east of General Santos City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warnings #1
------------------

Mindanao Region
================
1. Davao del Norte
2. Davao del Sur incl. Samal Is.
3. Davao Oriental
4. Compostela Valley
5. Southern part of Surigao del Sur
6. Agusan del Sur
7. Bukidnon
8. Lanao del Norte
9. Lanao del Sur
10. North Cotabato
11. Maguindanao
12. Sultan Kudarat
13. South Cotabato
14. Sarangani

Additional Information
======================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderateto heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of the country and over the northern seaboard of northern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST February 18 2013
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 6.0N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

(TD Crising)
Quoting hydrus:
This is a data base for known impact craters on Earth for anyone interested. There are great pictures and info on each impact site...Link
For what it's worth, there's also the related "Impact Database" (formerly the SEIS [Suspected Earth Impact Sites]), which contains detailed information on--as you might imagine--suspected impact sites, as well as geological features that have been rejected as extraterrestrial in origin (so they're easier to reject the next time they're reported as suspect).

(Also for what it's worth, in 2010 I reported a possible impact site in Kazakhstan--thanks, Google Earth--that's been reviewed but so far not rejected; it's still awaiting further study to move it into the either the "probable" or "rejected" category.)
By this evening it could be designated TS
Quoting FunnelVortex:





Yes. Really.
756. VR46L
Some Cells Moving Across the TX /LA border

Quoting Neapolitan:
For what it's worth, there's also the related "Impact Database" (formerly the SEIS [Suspected Earth Impact Sites]), which contains detailed information on--as you might imagine--suspected impact sites, as well as geological features that have been rejected as extraterrestrial in origin (so they're easier to reject the next time they're reported as suspect).

(Also for what it's worth, in 2010 I reported a possible impact site in Kazakhstan--thanks, Google Earth--that's been reviewed but so far not rejected; it's still awaiting further study to move it into the either the "probable" or "rejected" category.)
Neat stuff. I have always wanted to see a impact site. My Father was at Meteor Crater in the 60,s. He said it is way more impressive in person.
This is up in western Oklahoma, severe warned for quarter size hail and 60mph winds.
The fire danger is increasing as the dry period of Febuary and March goes on.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST MON FEB 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME
TIME. HOWEVER..OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED. SOME
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME.
LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES
REMAINING NEAR 1.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. EAST WINDS
20G30KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 79 FEET TOMORROW...AS TRADE WINDS
INCREASES AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BUILDING HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS TOMORROW WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE
ANY SUPPRESSION EFFORTS HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT. OVERALL...HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 75 85 74 84 / 20 20 30 30
First tornado warning of the day in Texas.

WFUS54 KHGX 181931
TORHGX
TXC339-407-471-182000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0001.130218T1931Z-130218T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
131 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 126 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR WILLIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 9517 3035 9544 3042 9552 3062 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 232DEG 7KT 3043 9545

$$
Quoting hydrus:
Neat stuff. I have always wanted to see a impact site. My Father was at Meteor Crater in the 60,s. He said it is way more impressive in person.


There's some conflicting evidence for the origin of Lake Cheko, near where the Tunguska meteor (comet?) exploded in 1908, but the most recent analysis of sediment concludes that it formed around that time.

It's 708m X 364 m, and 50m deep. Looks like an impact site, to me.

Good Afternoon. Speaking of past and potential meteor impacts on the Earth, I am still digesting the recent one in Russia last week. Lot's of media and shows for the past several years on how both professional and amateur astronomers have the "watch" out on potential close ones that are monitored. Guess this recent one (about the size of a bus at reentry?) slipped through the radar.

How big does it need to be to get picked up?; or better...... no way we can get "full" space coverage at any given moment regardless of how many eyes we might have out there and a few will inevitably get through without prior warning.

This was a close call if it had descended lower towards the city before the big-boom/break-up.

No need to worry however; almost impossible chance of one impacting any given city/town.....However, have to wonder if they like Russia given the last Tunguska impact in 1908.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The fire danger is increasing as the dry period of Febuary and March goes on.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST MON FEB 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME
TIME. HOWEVER..OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED. SOME
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME.
LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES
REMAINING NEAR 1.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. EAST WINDS
20G30KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 79 FEET TOMORROW...AS TRADE WINDS
INCREASES AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BUILDING HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS TOMORROW WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE
ANY SUPPRESSION EFFORTS HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT. OVERALL...HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 75 85 74 84 / 20 20 30 30


Boring weather is not good! I want april to come fast!
Quoting hydrus:
Neat stuff. I have always wanted to see a impact site. My Father was at Meteor Crater in the 60,s. He said it is way more impressive in person.


Just looked at google maps and they have street view down in the middle of it from Oct. 2012
Considering that they almost missed the larger one (2012DA) not so sure I feel all warm and cozy about how good our asteroid/meteor watching is...

I am not worried about getting hit by one, even though something small went down off the coast of Miami Beach last night.
I just stood down in Meteor Crater without ever having to be there...check off the bucket list
769. VR46L
GulfOfMexico vis_images goes

A pair of tornado warned storms in SE TX, near Livingston.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX TO WESTERN AR/NORTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181929Z - 182130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK/FAR WESTERN AR
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED TSTMS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST TX WHERE CELLULAR CU IS READILY
EVIDENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER IS ONLY MODEST MOIST/UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CLOUD BREAKS
AND THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX. WSR-88D VWPS ARE INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND PROFILES...ACCENTUATED BY 60+ KT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ATOP SOUTHERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO...ALTHOUGH MERGING LINE SEGMENTS WITH SMALL BOWS WILL
EVOLVE AS THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..GUYER/HART.. 02/18/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 36109447 35249336 34239280 32259330 31639405 31459454
31279567 32329643 36109447
Dr.Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Monday, Feb. 18

Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly with damaging wind gusts, in east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, west and north Louisiana, central and south Arkansas. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 northeast TX, northwest LA, southeast AR; 2 for other areas on this list.
Starting to get tornado warned storms now. If only I didn't have class...

Quoting wxchaser97:
A pair of tornado warned storms in SE TX, near Livingston.


I like your handle's picture Chaser
Storm has a Boundary Weak Echo Region* (doughnut hole). Sure have seen a lot of those this year already.

* A Boundary Weak Echo Region is a local minimum associated with a supercell on radar. It is a sign of an intense updraft and potentially a tornado.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storm has a Boundary Weak Echo Region* (doughnut hole). Sure have seen a lot of those this year already.

* A Boundary Weak Echo Region is a local minimum associated with a supercell on radar. It is a sign of an intense updraft and potentially a tornado.


Well, if it has a tornado, we'll probably find out soon. It's about to cross 59.
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Snow will fall on the summits of Hawaii this week. Check out the state radar here:
Link
Quoting Luisport:
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Snow will fall on the summits of Hawaii this week. Check out the state radar here:
Link


yep..

BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET
841 AM HST MON FEB 18 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING FOG...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ABOVE 12000 FEET.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FREEZING FOG.
* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN DRIFTS.
* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY.
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND ICE ON
THE ROADS.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S.
* VISIBILITIES...1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND FREEZING FOG
Cell behind it just got a warning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
205 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 200 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CUT AND SHOOT...OR 8 MILES EAST OF CONROE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...CUT AND SHOOT AND NORTH CLEVELAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182008Z - 182115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE TX WHILE MOVING NEWD INTO SW LA. STORMS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD
BE TRANSIENT...LEADING TO A LOW PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.
ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BE THE
THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED WITHIN THE WAA REGIME
ACROSS SE TX. CLOUD COVER AND WARM PROFILES HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY
THUS FAR BUT MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME
DESTABILIZATION. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
AND MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
KEEP STORMS SHALLOW AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL
MERGERS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
ROTATING STORMS NOTED IN MONTGOMERY AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES IN SE
TX. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR...A BRIEF/TRANSIENT
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 02/18/2013


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29259490 28939552 29419645 30279651 31289526 31669469
32359394 32309322 31779292 30949307 29929360 29259490
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storm has a Boundary Weak Echo Region* (doughnut hole). Sure have seen a lot of those this year already.

* A Boundary Weak Echo Region is a local minimum associated with a supercell on radar. It is a sign of an intense updraft and potentially a tornado.



TA, where do you see the echo? What graphics are you using???
"THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CUT AND SHOOT..."

Am I the only one who sees the irony in that? Lol.

Anyways..

Lots of new severe thunderstorm warnings and a severe thunderstorm watch farther north:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CUT AND SHOOT..."

Am I the only one who sees the irony in that? Lol.


If they use their assualt weapons on the storm they might be able to shoot it down outta the sky
I might be late on this one but SPC added a 5% tornado risk

hmm, true. Those are new there

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CUT AND SHOOT..."

Am I the only one who sees the irony in that? Lol.
LOL
Quoting RitaEvac:


If they use their assualt weapons on the storm they might be able to shoot it down outta the sky


Have you ever been to Cut And Shoot? You barely have the distance to stop for gas before you drive all the way through it. :) They could all be armed to the teeth and they still would not have enough fire power there to stop an evening shower.
Sometimes I get these thoughts in my head ... Of all of the 50 states, which state is the safest place to live in?... Weather related only
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sometimes I get these thoughts in my head ... Of all of the 50 states, which state is the safest place to live in?... Weather related only


answer.. none, as to which one gets closer then idk
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sometimes I get these thoughts in my head ... Of all of the 50 states, which state is the safest place to live in?... Weather related only

I'd have to go with Maine.
793. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sometimes I get these thoughts in my head ... Of all of the 50 states, which state is the safest place to live in?... Weather related only


I would think the best weather wize would be South California but it does have alot of shakers which would be a major Minus but that is just as an outsider looking in
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sometimes I get these thoughts in my head ... Of all of the 50 states, which state is the safest place to live in?... Weather related only


Could you hum a few bars.....
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sometimes I get these thoughts in my head ... Of all of the 50 states, which state is the safest place to live in?... Weather related only


Idaho?
Vermont/NH?
Maine?
AZ/NV?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd have to go with Maine.
It's a tough question... Being that I did the Xenia tornado in Ohio, I'd say no to Ohio, and now I am in south Florida.... Not a good bet either
This storm heading for Norman, Arkansas needs a tornado warning!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sometimes I get these thoughts in my head ... Of all of the 50 states, which state is the safest place to live in?... Weather related only


Sometimes I get these thoughts in my head

Quoting Ameister12:
This storm heading for Norman, Arkansas needs a tornado warning!

Probably.

Quoting PedleyCA:


Could you hum a few bars.....
repeat...
It's early morning, the sun comes out
Last night was shaking, and pretty loud
My cat is purring, and scratches my skin
So what is wrong with another sin
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It's a tough question... Being that I did the Xenia tornado in Ohio, I'd say no to Ohio, and now I am in south Florida.... Not a good bet either


We don't have Hurricanes and only a few tornado here. Earthquakes aren't weather and that was the criteria. I'd say it's pretty weather safe here. Can't freeze to death here unless you try.
Quoting Dakster:
Considering that they almost missed the larger one (2012DA) not so sure I feel all warm and cozy about how good our asteroid/meteor watching is...

I am not worried about getting hit by one, even though something small went down off the coast of Miami Beach last night.
Dakster, I saw a fireball in 2006 and thought it was going to hit the house next to mine. Fortunately, it was higher (and probably much larger) than I thought. It kept going. I bet that Florida Bay would be a good spot to try and find meteroites. White sand bottom. Could go looking with the old fashioned bucket that was used to spot sponges. That is where I think the one that went over me landed. It was headed that way.
Quoting ncstorm:


Sometimes I get these thoughts in my head

ncstorm
In Louisiana now:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
243 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BIENVILLE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANSFIELD...
RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 239 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COUSHATTA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&
Quoting aspectre:
The CO2 surfeit: pickled ocean is eating away at oyster's, clam's, and sea butterflies


I could not get your link to work, but is this it?
Quoting PedleyCA:


We don't have Hurricanes and only a few tornado here. Earthquakes aren't weather and that was the criteria. I'd say it's pretty weather safe here. Can't freeze to death here unless you try.



Well drought is technically a weather related disaster, and California seems to get an awful lot of drought even though precip averages are already low. Therefore, you aren't as low on this list as you might think.
806 : I could not get your link to work, but is this it?
The CO2 surfeit: pickled ocean is eating away at oyster's, clam's, and sea butterflies


Yeah, thanks. Fixed. Shoulda checked. Slate's been having problems with their addresses in AnimalForecast today. Guess I used one of their bad addresses.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST February 19 2013
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 6.0N 128.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

(PAGASA "Crising")
Quoting kwgirl:
Dakster, I saw a fireball in 2006 and thought it was going to hit the house next to mine. Fortunately, it was higher (and probably much larger) than I thought. It kept going. I bet that Florida Bay would be a good spot to try and find meteroites. White sand bottom. Could go looking with the old fashioned bucket that was used to spot sponges. That is where I think the one that went over me landed. It was headed that way.


When I was a child in the sixties of the last century our family lived for several years at the mediterranean coast of Libya. One night I watched I big shooting star going down somewhere in the direction of the sea. Next day by chance I was walking at the rocky coast with my father and a geologist. And I tried to find the shooting star amid of billions of black stones at the coast. Everyone could have been the fallen star. So I randomly picked up one or the other and begged the geologist for his jugdement and wanted him to open the stone with a hammer. Maybe there were diamonds and gold in it! Happy times of childhood when every plain thing could hide a treasure in itself...

Besides I've created a small blog with some informations on this video I've posted before at #706 or better the film: "Chasing ice". Perhaps some of you have seen it in the US and would like to comment. But careful, I myself rarely visit my own blog, lol.

Good night from Germany, stay warm, Barb.

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

DANGEROUS storm with strong rotation #tornado warned should move just to the south of Garland, AR #ARwx







TORNADO WARNING
ARC057-073-091-182200-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0008.130218T2115Z-130218T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEWISVILLE...
CENTRAL MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

* AT 309 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
FOUKE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAKE VILLAGE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GENOA
AND GARLAND...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 9364 3326 9351 3315 9403 3318 9405
3338 9404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 251DEG 33KT 3327 9398

$$

One last thing: Auroras in the offing right now at http://www.auroraskystation.com/live-camera/9/

And now falling asleep ...
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Saw REPORT of a funnel cloud w/AR cell. No way to confirm. Tag me if you see pic. Rotating storm although weaker heading towards Lewisville


Picture from twitter of this storm


Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

#Tornado warned storm on top of Lewisville, AR
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF STAMPS...
SOUTHERN NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 348 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
WITH THIS STORM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BUCKNER...BODCAW...WILLISVILLE AND ROSSTON...
Northern cell is struggling, southern cell may take over

we now have winter storm Q

Quoting tornadodude:
Northern cell is struggling, southern cell may take over


Southern cell just got a tornado warning.
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Magnolia storm now #tornado warned on. #ARwx
TORNADO WARNING
ARC027-139-182230-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0010.130218T2203Z-130218T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
403 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MAGNOLIA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CST

* AT 401 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MAGNOLIA...
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
VILLAGE...MOUNT HOLLY AND LISBON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 9330 3330 9335 3339 9302 3338 9278
3319 9273
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 257DEG 48KT 3323 9321

$$

05
These are some of the earliest watches I've ever seen issued. The storm is still off the coast of the western USA.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Southern cell just got a tornado warning.


Figured it would, it looked like it was intensifying
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISING
5:00 AM PhST February 19 2013
==============================

Tropical Depression "CRISING" has accelerated as it continues to threaten Mindanao

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Crising (1004 hPa) located at 6.1°N 128.2°E or 310 km east of General Santos City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warnings #1
------------------

Mindanao Region
================
1. Davao del Norte
2. Davao del Sur
3. Samal Island
4. Davao Oriental
5. Compostela Valley
6. southern part of Surigao del Sur
7. Agusan del Sur
8. Bukidnon
9. Lanao del Norte
10. Lanao del Sur
11. North Cotabato
12. Maguindanao
13. Sultan Kudarat
14. South Cotabato
15. Sarangani
16. Misamis Occidental
17. Zamboanga del Norte
18. Zamboanga del Sur
19. Zamboanga Sibugay

Additional Information
======================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and eastern seaboards of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...

VALID 182152Z - 182315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 36 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. SEVERE HAIL
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALONG WITH WHAT MAY BE AN INCREASING DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO MERGE/SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN A
NNE-SSW ORIENTED NEAR-COLD FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS WESTERN AR INTO
FAR NORTHEAST TX AS OF 20Z...WITH THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
OVERTAKING A PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX.
OTHER RELATIVELY MORE DISCRETE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN
THE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /500 J PER KG MLCAPE OR
LESS/...MAINLY WITHIN THE NARROW MOIST AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD A FAR
SOUTHWEST AR SURFACE LOW. THESE TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR
COULD POSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM SHREVEPORT
INDICATIVE OF 250-300 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. OTHERWISE...CONGEALING
STORMS WILL BE INCREASINGLY COMMON NEAR THE COLD FRONT...WITH BOUTS
OF DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE A CONCERN THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 02/18/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 35539353 35399258 33229248 32209245 32229547 34409403
35539353
Quoting Tazmanian:
we now have winter storm Q



wonder why the Dakotas/Minnesota/Winconsin system is not named, it is showing a low pressure of 998-1000 MB..
Newly improved CMC-a lot of back to back systems with heavy RAIN

12Z








Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Truckers/ High profile vehicles: Line of storms w/very gusty winds approaching I-30 corridor in AR from Little Rock to Texarkana. Next 30min
822 Tazmanian: We now have winter storm Q

Serendipity strikes again. Was wondering how I'd get the excuse to share
"...for the Pepsi Challenge, they removed the logos. At first, the researchers thought they should put some sort of label on the glasses. So, they went with M and Q. People said they liked Pepsi, labeled M, better than Coke, labeled Q.
Irritated by this, Coca-Cola did their own study and put Coke in both glasses. Again, M won the contest. It turned out it wasn't the soda; people just liked the letter M better than the letter Q."
I honestly don't think the southern cell is that strong although it's getting stronger every frame.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
I honestly don't think the southern cell is that strong although it's getting stronger every frame.



It seems to be weakening now. Also, the front is likely going to catch up to it soon, leading to a more linear storm mode.
Johnny Kelly ‏@stormchaser4850

Update: Homes reported damaged with trees down 4 miles E of Shepherd, TX in San Jacinto Co., TX (2:30 pm CST)

Todd Yakoubian ‏@KATV_Weather

Local Storm Report by NWS SHV: 7 N Fouke [Miller Co, AR] law enforcement reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) #ARWX
UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 427 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF MOUNTAIN PINE
TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOFTON TO NEAR AMITY...AND MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINEY... LAKE OUACHITA... LAKE HAMILTON...
HOT SPRINGS... ROCKWELL... MOUNTAIN PINE...
LOFTON... LAKE OUACHITA SP... LAKE CATHERINE...
HOT SPRINGS NATL PARK...
HOT SPRINGS MEM FLD... DEGRAY LAKE SP...
AMITY... WILSON SPRINGS... SUNSHINE...
ROYAL... RED OAK... POINT CEDAR...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You can see the cold front/dryline just to the west of the storms.

The green circled observations show a more humid pre-frontal air mass, the brown circled observations show the warm dry air behind the dryline.

SEVERE STORM WARNING Sw AR 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOFTON TO NEAR AMITY. MOVING E AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE STORM WARNING Se TX LOCATED NEAR TYLER...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
WEEK'S OUTLOOK
___________________________

I know it's a map full of stuff but let me break it down for you...

first, snow comes for the Sierra Nevada, rain for all low lands.
The storm then moves further inland reaching the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming with heavy snows there on Tuesday. By Wednesday there could be a major winter storm impacting the Central Plains/Midwest with Ice for the Ohio River Valley with severe weather developing by Thursday and lots of rain for the south, expect more snow in the Appalachians and a rain/snow mix for coastal Northeast with snow on the interior on Friday


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
448 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 445 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BLEVINS...
OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BOUGHTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&
the GFS has been real consistent with light snow for parts for NC later this week


Severe warned storms about to move through Little Rock, probably some damaging winds and small hail with those.
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

1 ENE Bismarck [Hot Spring Co, AR] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG -- trees and power lines are down along hwy 84 at morgan road.
The air mass ahead of the dry line is still pretty darn dry as well lol, low level moisture is a bit more decent down near SE TX but that's about it. My experience though is that dry air is helpful with severe weather, at least with frontal systems.

During the summer it's different because hot air masses hold a lot more water at lower RH values, thus you can have a very moist air mass with less RH thus its "easier" for severe weather. With severe weather, and even lightning, it's about RH values at different parts of the column.

This cell is likely about to go tornadic.



Slice:

Are there any TV stations in the tornado areas streaming live?
Miami NWS Disco...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FOR THE WEEK. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH EAST, THE GENERAL FLOW WILL
VARY BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SOUTH FLORIDA MID WEEK, BUT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT
IS WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, THUS KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA IN
A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
TOMORROW, THEN SLOWLY INCREASING EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 80S IN THE EAST AND NEAR 90 IN THE INTERIOR WESTERN ZONES.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE EACH DAY, WITH NO MORE CHANCE OF FROST OR
FREEZE THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GREGG COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KILGORE...
NORTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CST

* AT 509 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR KILGORE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TATUM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 9487 3238 9446 3236 9443 3215 9448
3227 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 282DEG 21KT 3232 9478

$$

05


MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:49 PM PST on February 18, 2013
Clear
61 °F
Clear
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 45 °F
Wind: 3 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 29.93 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

High today is supposed to be 65(WU) and I have 64.4 Close enough.
About to get ugly within the overnight hours. Still Sunny, going to say goodbye to that.
I leave for 15 minutes to go to the cleaners and I come back to find this cell.
Beautiful storm going through the Bering Sea right now, easily producing hurricane force winds:



2238 UNK 1 ENE BISMARCK HOT SPRING AR 3432 9315 TREES AND POWER LINES ARE DOWN ALONG HWY 84 AT MORGAN ROAD. UPDATE ... A HOUSE WAS DESTROYED AND SEVERAL CARS WERE FLIPPED. (LZK)
It's the Gulf Stream that keeps European winters mild, right?
New simulations point toward a different explanation.
LoL wunderground:

I swear I've seen a baker's dozen of donut holes in '13:

Twin tornado warned storms in east TX:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Twin tornado warned storms in east TX:


New warning on the top storm:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
NORTHEASTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST.

* AT 544 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR TATUM...OR
13 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BECKVILLE AND DEBERRY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 9461 3237 9456 3228 9404 3199 9404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 290DEG 29KT 3227 9451

$$

12

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I swear I've seen a baker's dozen of donut holes in '13:




We could start calling them mesocanes if they are long lived/sustained.

:)
I have some very exciting news! Me and my dad signed up for the Silver Lining Tornado Tour for the June 15-22 Sculpted Supercell tour in the Northern Plains and we finally got an e-mail back from the guys saying we're in! I'm so freaking excited! :-D
The storm to the south of the tornado warned cells just got a severe thunderstorm warning, but there is some weak rotation with this one too.

WUUS54 KSHV 182345
SVRSHV
TXC073-347-401-190030-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0052.130218T2345Z-130219T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RUSK...JACKSONVILLE...
SOUTHWESTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 539 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSK...AND MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PONTA...ALTO...MORRILL...SACUL...DOUGLASS AND TRAWICK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED SOME WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO
MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 9483 3153 9487 3151 9490 3159 9528
3161 9527 3162 9529 3167 9529 3173 9537
3175 9537 3198 9527 3183 9459 3146 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 278DEG 32KT 3175 9513

$$

05
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
LoL wunderground:



LOL
Quoting Ameister12:
I have some very exciting news! Me and my dad signed up for Silver Lining Tornado Tour for the June 15-22 Sculpted Supercell tour in the Northern Plains and we finally got an e-mail back from the guys saying we're in! I'm so freaking excited! :-D


Awesome!!

Quoting Ameister12:
I have some very exciting news! Me and my dad signed up for the Silver Lining Tornado Tour for the June 15-22 Sculpted Supercell tour in the Northern Plains and we finally got an e-mail back from the guys saying we're in! I'm so freaking excited! :-D

That's awesome! Me and my dad are planning to do storm chasing in the next couple years.
319 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW POSTED FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR PUEBLO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY...AND TRACK ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY. IT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER IOWA AT DAWN FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW MAY
ALTERNATE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HEBRON TO RED
CLOUD TO BEAVER CITY. THEN STEADY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL DISRUPT GROUND AND
AIR TRAVEL...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
Spotters are reporting a persistent wall cloud on storm 7 mi NW of Mt Enterprise, TX in Rusk County. #txWX #TORNADO
Good threat of hail and maybe a tornado or two with twin tornado warned storms.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST.

* AT 557 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GARRISON...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSON...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TIMPSON AND TENAHA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&
Very good looking newly tornado warned storm north of Shreveport, LA.
Quoting wxchaser97:

That's awesome! Me and my dad are planning to do storm chasing in the next couple years.

I believe there are still some spots opened for the Sculpted Supercell tour if you and your dad are at all interested.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Very good looking newly tornado warned storm north of Shreveport, LA.

You guys are having Tornadoes and we are having Water spouts.
Now four separate tornado warned storms.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MCNEIL...MAGNOLIA...
CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 614 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
SMITHLAND...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF STAMPS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MACEDONIA...EMERSON AND VILLAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 9301 3308 9301 3310 9358 3332 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 269DEG 43KT 3321 9342

$$

05
We have 4 active tornado warnings with 6 more severe thunderstorm warnings. There is still a wall cloud being reported near Benton.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Just finished my report on Kirk (as usual, the best track et al will be added later), if anyone's interested in reading it.
Its sad,what became of The Captain. We had high hopes for him.
We have seen a ton of rotating supercells today, but none of them have produced a tornado. This is attributed to a lack of instability.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have seen a ton of rotating supercells today, but none of them have produced a tornado. This is attributed to a lack of instability.


Yeah, surface CAPE is pretty much non-existent in the target areas:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have seen a ton of rotating supercells today, but none of them have produced a tornado. This is attributed to a lack of instability.


Yup, if there had been more moisture today, there could have been several tornadoes. Storms struggling to translate the rotation to the surface.
Lots of winter storm watches already for the storm on Thursday. I don't know if I will personally get a big snow, but it should help raise season totals some. Also should provide some drought relief to the plains.
Quoting goalexgo:
Its sad,what became of The Captain. We had high hopes for him.


When the initial model runs had Isaac take a path reminiscent of Katrina, I was extremely irritated, lol. I'm too far to the west of New Orleans to be significantly affected by a Katrina-esque storm (I'm closer to the state capital). I was gonna ask a buddy to come chase with me to compensate for that prognosis, but I had to work that day until the store closed at 5 that afternoon, so even if he agreed, we wouldn't have been able to do that, lol.

At the time, the pre-Leslie wave (Kirk had not yet developed at high latitudes) was being hinted at in a couple of the GFS runs to be a major hurricane for the northern Gulf Coast. I kept thinking "If Isaac disappoints me, this next forecast of Captain Kirk hitting the Gulf had better come to pass!" Turns out I worried for nothing, as Isaac ended up giving me 70 to 75 kt gusts anyway, lol.
Water-spout off Sydney's coast this morning.

Quoting tornadodude:


Yup, if there had been more moisture today, there could have been several tornadoes. Storms struggling to translate the rotation to the surface.
Let 'em struggle.. they be overhead here in Mid TN in about 4 hours or so.. no need to be woken up by the tornado siren.... watching our favorite movie tonight....

Quoting JNCali:
Let 'em struggle.. they be overhead here in Mid TN in about 4 hours or so.. no need to be woken up by the tornado siren.... watching our favorite movie tonight....



I haven't seen that movie in forever. Enjoy!
TORNADO WARNING
LAC017-031-TXC365-190115-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0018.130219T0029Z-130219T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
629 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANSFIELD...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST.

* AT 628 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
DEBERRY...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STONEWALL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 9360 3200 9367 3218 9425 3231 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 284DEG 26KT 3223 9414

$$

12
Quoting JNCali:
Let 'em struggle.. they be overhead here in Mid TN in about 4 hours or so.. no need to be woken up by the tornado siren.... watching our favorite movie tonight....



I saw Andre The Giant wrestle many times when they had the NWA. Always in Battle Royals...and of course he won all the time.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I saw Andre The Giant wrestle many times when they had the NWA. Always in Battle Royals...and of course he won all the time.


I grew up with Paul Wight instead.

I do know who Andre is, though. Believe it or not, I used to be a wrestling aficionado until about 10 years ago. Now I barely recognize any of the new wrestlers, lol.
Rotation going just north of Timpson, Texas.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I saw Andre The Giant wrestle many times when they had the NWA. Always in Battle Royals...and of course he won all the time.
This movie would not be this movie without Andre.. just to the Pit of Despair scene now...
Quoting KoritheMan:


I grew up with Paul Wight instead.

I do know who Andre is, though. Believe it or not, I used to be a wrestling aficionado until about 10 years ago. Now I barely recognize any of the new wrestlers, lol.


Same here Kori. The main event at the next Wrestlemania is The Rock vs. John Cena. You would think the WWE would come up with something new.
TORNADO WARNING
LAC031-TXC419-190130-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0019.130219T0043Z-130219T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CENTER...
SOUTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST.

* AT 637 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR TIMPSON...
OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TENAHA...JOAQUIN AND LOGANSPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 9444 3197 9443 3199 9388 3176 9388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 274DEG 27KT 3191 9433

$$

12
After watching 'The Wrestler' with Mickey Rourke I have a hard time watching it on TV... Great avenue for college ball players who have a little acting savvy and don't want to be cops though... Nice and windy out here today nothing gusting over 30mph.. probably get some nice gusts when the cells get to us later.
Ouch, wind related damage. This is the house from the earlier report.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 09-20122013
4:00 AM RET February 19 2013
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 20.5S 40.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Locally Gale Force Winds up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.5S 41.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 22.2S 41.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.3S 41.9E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 23.7S 43.8E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================
Deep convective activity keeps on consolidating and progressively organizing on a curved band pattern in the western semi-circle thanks to meteosat7 and msg imagery. low level circulation center remains however difficult to precisely locate due to a lack of recent microwave imagery.

ASCAT 1819z swath covered very partially the circulation and do not allow to calibrate the winds near the center but confirms a broad 30 knots winds extension in the eastern semi-circle and that gale force 35 knots winds exist locally in the southeastern quadrant.

Within the next 24-36 hours, the low is expected to keep on drifting slowly southward toward a weak in the subtropical belt. Beyond, GFS and ECMWF numerical weather prediction models are now in agreement for a globally east southeastwards track under the steering influence of a broad mid level trough transiting south of 30.0s. ECMWF and GFS however purpose different chronologies. The mentioned RCMC schedule is close to ECMWF one, slower than GFS one and forecast a landfall over the southwestern Malagasy coastline near Tulear (Toliara) Thursday late or Friday early.

ECMWF ensemble system members are all globally oriented near this forecast track toward the southwestern Madagascar. Over high energetic potential seas (29-30C) and under the upper level ridge, system is expected to gradually strengthen until landfall.

The slow track expected by RSMC should however limit the maximum intensity due to negative oceanic retro-action by cooling water surface.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Ouch, wind related damage. This is the house from the earlier report.

Doesn't work.
It's never good when the roof is on the ground.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Doesn't work.

It was working earlier...
Quoting wxchaser97:

It was working earlier...

You should fix it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should fix it.

I probably should try to fix it.

Does it work now?
Quoting wxchaser97:

I probably should try to fix it.

Does it work now?
Yup
Memphis, TN is under a severe thunderstorm warning.

WUUS54 KMEG 190131
SVRMEG
ARC035-123-MSC033-TNC157-190200-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0028.130219T0131Z-130219T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
731 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EXTREME EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 800 PM CST

* AT 732 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIMSBORO...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HUGHES...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARION...
WEST MEMPHIS...HORN LAKE...SOUTHAVEN...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...
MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...CORDOVA AND T O FULLER STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE AND WAPANOCCA
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 9040 3534 8972 3499 8973 3486 9041
3490 9041 3491 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 248DEG 62KT 3501 9032

$$

Is rainy season coming back to south florida this week!?!?!?
Saturday day
Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday
Chance of rain 50%.

Monday
Chance of rain 20%.

Monday Night
Chance of rain 20%.

Tuesday
Chance of rain 40%.

Wednesday
Chance of rain 40%.
6 to 10 days and 8 to 14 days!

8 to 14 days
A measure of whether a person is mostly a scientist or ideologue is how long it takes them to incorporate new data into their theories.
It might be time for me to consider changing my tune regarding Thursday's outbreak. The NAM is indicating a less stable/saturated atmosphere in addition to keeping extremely intense wind shear. Winds veer with height and are backed across central Louisiana during the afternoon hours.

We may see a few strong to significant tornadoes in that setup.



Todays temps 51.8 and 65.9 Now it will drop between 48-52 tomorrow, ouch.
Look like the CMC maybe onto something with all the heavy rain coming up in the upcoming weeks

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It might be time for me to consider changing my tune regarding Thursday's outbreak. The NAM is indicating a less stable/saturated atmosphere in addition to keeping extremely intense wind shear. Winds veer with height and are backed across central Louisiana during the afternoon hours.

We may see a few strong to significant tornadoes in that setup.





yup been looking at that too, I think there will be some discrete cells in front of the main line. Convective feeder bands that setup along the coast.
Only wind warnings so far.. nasty stuff from Memphis still too far out... back to the movie...

wuv...twu wuv..
Thursday's definitely a day to watch. It's trending stronger for severe/tornado potential. I'd say a moderate risk day is very much a possibility.
Quoting tornadodude:


yup been looking at that too, I think there will be some discrete cells in front of the main line. Convective feeder bands that setup along the coast.



98W is upgraded by JTWC to Tropical Depression 02W.

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 5.2N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.2N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 6.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.1N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 7.8N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 8.3N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 7.7N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 6.4N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 5.4N 125.6E.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 181651Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 181700 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
//

0401 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W GENTRY 36.27N 94.50W
02/18/2013 U0 MPH BENTON AR EMERGENCY MNGR

A LARGE TREE LIMB FELL ONTO A ROOF THEN INTO A HOME
INJURING ONE OF THE OCCUPANTS.




0205 PM HAIL 3 W SHORT 35.57N 94.54W
02/18/2013 E1.00 INCH SEQUOYAH OK PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST February 19 2013
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 6.0N 127.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
923. etxwx
Hmmm...got a pretty good line forming up there to our northwest.
nam-hires namer
20130219 00 UTC
sim_reflectivity
hr45
JeffMasters has created a new entry.