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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Meteor over Russia causes shock waves that injure at least 950

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:12 PM GMT on February 15, 2013

Allthough this blog is mostly about meteorology--the science of the weather--it's worth commenting on the incredible meteor that streaked through the skies of Russia over the Ural Mountains near 9:20 am local time on Friday. The shock waves from the meteor blew out windows, collapsed the walls and ceiling of a zinc factory, and injured over 950 people. According to astronomer Margaret Campbell-Brown of the University of Western Ontario, in an interview with nature.com, today's meteor was 15 meters in diameter and weighed 40 tons, making it the largest one to affect Earth since the 1908 Tunguska meteor in Siberia. The number of injuries reported from today's event is unprecedented in modern human history for a meteor. The meteor appeared less than a day before asteroid 2012 DA14 will make the closest recorded pass of an asteroid to Earth since sky surveys began in the 1990s--about 17,150 miles, which is closer than the orbit of the GOES weather satellites. According to NASA (as posted on spaceweather.com), "the trajectory of the Russian meteorite was significantly different than the trajectory of the asteroid 2012 DA14, making it a completely unrelated object. Information is still being collected about the Russian meteorite and analysis is preliminary at this point. In videos of the meteor, it is seen to pass from left to right in front of the rising sun, which means it was traveling from north to south. Asteroid DA14's trajectory is in the opposite direction, from south to north." The odds of the largest meteor strike in 100 years occurring on the same day as the closest asteroid approach in 15 years are about 1 in 200 million, assuming these events are not correlated--truly a cosmic coincidence! The root word meteor comes from the Greek meteōros, meaning "high in the air", and the science of meteorology is the study of weather (notably hydrometeors--things like rain and snow and hailstones that fall from the sky.)


Figure 1. In this photo provided by Chelyabinsk.ru, a meteor contrail is seen over Chelyabinsk, Russia on Friday, Feb. 15, 2013. The meteor streaked across the sky of Russia’s Ural Mountains on Friday morning, causing sharp explosions and reportedly injuring at least 950 people, including many hurt by broken glass. (AP Photo/ Chelyabinsk.ru)


Figure 2. In this photo provided by Chelyabinsk.ru, municipal workers repair damaged electric power circuit outside a zinc factory building with about 600 square meters (6000 square feet) of a roof collapsed after a meteorite exploded over in Chelyabinsk region on Friday, Feb. 15, 2013. (AP Photo/ Oleg Kargapolov, Chelyabinsk.ru)


Figure 3. A hole in Chebarkul Lake, Russia claimed to be from meteorite debris from today's meteor. Photo by Chebarkul town head Andrey Orlov.


Video 1. A Russian dashboard camera caught this incredible video of the February 15, 2013 fireball over Russia. In case you were wondering why there are so many Russian dash board camera videos on the Internet, geek.com explains that it's a combination of the bad weather and corruption in the country.


Video 2. The massive shockwave from the the blast hits at about 0:30 into this video, followed by lots of sonic booms. Thanks go to skyepony for posting this in my blog comments.

Links
engadget.com has a compilation of five impressive videos of the event.
rt.news has an excellent collection of still images and videos.

NASA TV will begin streaming live coverage of the fly-by of asteroid 2012 DA14 at 2 pm EST (19:00 UTC.) The asteroid's closest approach to Earth will be at 2:25 pm EST Friday. The half-hour broadcast from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA, will incorporate real-time animation to show the location of the asteroid in relation to Earth, along with live or near real-time views of the asteroid from observatories in Australia, weather permitting.

Jeff Masters

Atmospheric Phenomena

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting PedleyCA:


I screwed it up and had to edit it. Read again. Senior Moment


ok sir.
Beautiful today.... still some remains of exNemo's swell..



Quoting geepy86:
dead blog
sorry, went away to play with the new wx toy... lol
Time To Get Some Rest - Stay Safe All - Sleep Well if it's Time - Party if it isn't - See Ya In the A.M.
Good night!!

Quoting ncstorm:
00z GFS..

more snow for the deep south..get your bread and milk..

15 hours



According to the GFS, ot could snow here in Tallahassee, the NWS however strongly disagrees now. They mention that a slight chance exists for snow to mix in for the far norther forecast region, that is south Georgia and south Alabama. However in the NWS discussion they now so there is no chance for snow in the Tallahassee area. While I agree with the NWS that it probably will not snow at all here. I'm not sure if they should guarantee that it won't when there actually is some model depiction of it, well I'm not sure if they should. That's just my 2 cents.
478 mitthbevnuruodo: So odd 2 of the most substantial, modern meteors hit Russia. I know it's an awfully big country, but still...

Hints to the Russians that they should do something about it: space industrialization&colonization insteada wasting their money on militarization as they've been doin'.
Quoting Jedkins01:



If you are applying studying exams to that "youth" category, then I guess your referring to me,Even when I do go to socially events/parties I always end up talking 1 on 1 with someone else like me about science and the origins of the Universe while everyone else is dancing and things like that, that actually happened just last night when I went to a valentines day party at a friend of mine's apartment. Truthfully though, it's much more exiting to me, getting to know people personally and have long deep conversations rather than dancing wildly in a huge group of people, which feels weird and almost primitive to me, lol. I guess that makes me more of an introvert than I sometimes realize.
Yeah, I was thinking "date night", but studying 4 exams does fall into the category of "getting on with ur life". Before age 25, there has to be more to life than blogging on Friday night... lol

Of course the rest of us blogging tonight are relaxing after a hard day's work, or possibly just too lazy to go out...

OTOH, I can understand where u r coming from... with the dancing thing.
Quoting aspectre:
478 mitthbevnuruodo: So odd 2 of the most substantial, modern meteors hit Russia. I know it's an awfully big country, but still...

Hints to the Russians that they should do something about it -- space industrialization&colonization -- insteada wasting their money on militarization as they've been doin'.

looks like militarization is not working...no one saw this coming.......
And looking at the time, I've come to the end of the [blogging] road, and I gatta go... tomorrow starts early and will be hectic...
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


at least it is not the bad form of that word.
Amen..now we have power tools to dig holes...
Quoting BahaHurican:
And looking at the time, I've come to the end of the [blogging] road, and I gatta go... tomorrow starts early and will be hectic...


you have been here for a long time and not a mod...?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you have been here for a long time and not a mod...?
Neither do I want to be. Besides, I have other commitments that mean I am off the blog for 3 days at a time during hectic periods... so I wouldn't describe my blogging pattern as "reliable"...

Anyway, I'm out. I'll check in tomorrow as circumstances permit...
Quoting AussieStorm:

I thought if a name was retired it was retired from all basins


Untrue.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Neither do I want to be. Besides, I have other commitments that mean I am off the blog for 3 days at a time during hectic periods... so I wouldn't describe my blogging pattern as "reliable"...

Anyway, I'm out. I'll check in tomorrow as circumstances permit...


oh. so they get to choose whether they want or not.. I see.
At this time a week ago I has getting hammered by the Blizzard... won't forget it.
I forgot to post this, but this is my snowfall forecast for the eastern snow.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I forgot to post this, but this is my snowfall forecast for the eastern snow.


I see some upcoming big lake effect snow...would you do something about that later on for Michigan?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, I was thinking "date night", but studying 4 exams does fall into the category of "getting on with ur life". Before age 25, there has to be more to life than blogging on Friday night... lol

Of course the rest of us blogging tonight are relaxing after a hard day's work, or possibly just too lazy to go out...

OTOH, I can understand where u r coming from... with the dancing thing.



Yeah I've never been a fan of so called "night life", I'd say the best night life is tracking severe weather and hurricanes at 2 AM ;). I look forward to the day of just being married and working hard everyday(hopefully with meteorology) and coming home to the simple things of life, which to me are the best and most peaceful. I value a peaceful and joyful life over an action packed one consisting of "what happened last night". Some my age my call me "old" for saying that. Honestly, there is nothing wrong with a little blogging on a Friday night, why not? lol

However, when I'm 40 and they too are 40, I'll be getting the last laugh.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I see some upcoming big lake effect snow...would you do something about that later on for Michigan?

I would be glad to as I am supposed to pick up some accumulation from that.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I would be glad to as I am supposed to pick up some accumulation from that.


That's why Im asking. Lucky you.

I will be working on my map tomorrow for your area, not expecting any "nor'easter" here. Off to bed. Gnight to all.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, I was thinking "date night", but studying 4 exams does fall into the category of "getting on with ur life". Before age 25, there has to be more to life than blogging on Friday night... lol

Of course the rest of us blogging tonight are relaxing after a hard day's work, or possibly just too lazy to go out...

OTOH, I can understand where u r coming from... with the dancing thing.

That is going to be me next weekend, I got 2 make up exams and 2 scheduled ones.
Finally, per request, Snowfall accumulations for lake-effect snow. The Upper Peninsula has already got a good amount of snow and this is just additional accumulations. I'm just going to go throw all of this into a blog.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Finally, per request, Snowfall accumulations for lake-effect snow. The Upper Peninsula has already got a good amount of snow and this is just additional accumulations.
we get more significant snow on tuseday as the rtn flow down south builds for poss event late next week


90 hr tue


144 hr next fri little out low confidence
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we get more significant snow on tuseday as the rtn flow down south builds for poss event late next week

You would get more snow on Tuesday, but for me it should be mostly a rain event until the later part where a changeover occurs.
Who'd of thought they all had cell phones.

Makes me wonder how much they pay for their service.





Quoting wxchaser97:
Finally, per request, Snowfall accumulations for lake-effect snow. The Upper Peninsula has already got a good amount of snow and this is just additional accumulations. I'm just going to go throw all of this into a blog.


Nice map again. Thanks for the fast response, one thing I'll change

Notice for the Upper Michigan Peninsula..

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* PLAN ON STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GOGEBIC AND WESTERN ONTONAGON COUNTIES...
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM WAKEFIELD NORTH AND EAST TO WHITE
PINE AND BERGLAND...INCLUDING THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT 6 TO
10 INCHES AROUND ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD...BUT NO MORE THAN 2 TO 4
INCHES NEAR WATERSMEET.
Ok, now Im out...
Hmmm... woke up just in time to hear the start of the rain here... let's see how long it lasts....

Weather Station 2:15 am
Wild Tamarind, Nassau
Elevation
49 ft
Station Select
Now
Rain
Rain
Temperature
72.3 °F
Feels Like 72.3 °F
So that's it for now, it seems... though I expect we'll see more in a couple hours.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Nice map again. Thanks for the fast response, one thing I'll change

Notice for the Upper Michigan Peninsula..

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* PLAN ON STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GOGEBIC AND WESTERN ONTONAGON COUNTIES...
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FROM WAKEFIELD NORTH AND EAST TO WHITE
PINE AND BERGLAND...INCLUDING THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT 6 TO
10 INCHES AROUND ONTONAGON AND IRONWOOD...BUT NO MORE THAN 2 TO 4
INCHES NEAR WATERSMEET.

Actually the snow is somewhat winding down in the UP. There should only be 2-4" of additional accumulation. I did say that in my original post.
I didn't post this last night due to scouring the apartment for it, but when I went to take a piss last night, a rat ran past my feet. I have no idea how it got in (I checked for holes), and no idea where it went. I didn't see it exit the bathroom, and I closed the door before it had a chance. It was my first experience with one, though, and it was rather harrowing, I'll admit. Dude was at least 6 or 7 inches.

Ugh. >.>
Quoting KoritheMan:
I didn't post this last night due to scouring the apartment for it, but when I went to take a piss yesterday, a rat ran past my feet. I have no idea how it got in (I checked for holes), and no idea where it went. I didn't see it exit the bathroom, and I closed the door before it had a chance.

Ugh. >.>
DOWN THE DRAIN IT WENT IF COVER WAS UP ON THE TOILET
not yelling caps were locked
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
DOWN THE DRAIN IT WENT IF COVER WAS UP ON THE TOILET


I just took a shower and I think I found the spot. There's a gap on the wall near the bottom left of the bathroom cabinet right between the bottom right of the doorframe and the cabinet itself. I've done some research, and apparently it's not uncommon for mice or rats to crawl through spaces that are seemingly impossible for anything else to fit through. At least I know wasn't just seeing things.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
254 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
CALMING OF WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE
EFFICIENT TRANSPORT OF COLD AIR UPSTREAM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN RATHER QUICKLY.
THUS...ONCE WINDS GO LIGHT THERE WILL BE LITTLE COOLING LEFT TO DO
TO REACH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA. IN ADDITION...THE CALM CENTER OF
THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS DIRECTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA ALLOWING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST CLOSER TO DAWN. COASTAL PANHANDLE
COMMUNITIES ARE THE ONLY LOCATIONS EXCLUDED FROM THE HARD FREEZE
WARNING. IN THESE LOCATIONS A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142> 148-155>161-
171400-
/O.UPG.KTAE.HZ.A.0001.130217T0600Z-130217T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.HZ.W.0001.130217T0900Z-130217T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN -SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...K INSEY...
COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...
MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGST OWN...
BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...
SWEETWATER...CRAWFORDVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAY O...CROSS CITY...
GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...
MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESB URG...
SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON...FITZG ERALD...OCILLA...
DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMI LLA...PELHAM...
MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...DONALSONVI LLE...
BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALD OSTA...LAKELAND
254 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013 /154 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2013/

...A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO
9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTH GEORGIA...AND
NORTH FLORIDA EXCLUDING THE PANHANDLE COAST.

* TEMPERATURE: LOWS 22 TO 26.

* DURATION: HARD FREEZE DURATIONS AROUND 3 HOURS WITH BELOW
FREEZING DURATIONS AROUND 8 HOURS.

* IMPACTS: DUE TO THE WARM WINTER THUS FAR...AND A LACK OF A
HARD FREEZE...SOME VARIETIES OF PLANTS MAY HAVE STARTED SPRING
GROWTH EARLY. THEREFORE SOME PLANTS MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DAMAGE AND EXTRA CARE MAY BE NEEDED.
Chelyabinsk administration...said...window glass shattered amounts to 100,000 square meters (~1.1million square feet).
Those...who had their windows smashed are scrambling to cover the openings with anything available -- the temperature in the city is currently -6C (21F) [Sounds like the high for the day]
Quoting KoritheMan:


I just took a shower and I think I found the spot. There's a gap on the wall near the bottom left of the bathroom cabinet right between the bottom right of the doorframe and the cabinet itself. I've done some research, and apparently it's not uncommon for mice or rats to crawl through spaces that are seemingly impossible for anything else to fit through. At least I know wasn't just seeing things.



Use steel wool and Great Stuff Foam to close the hole. Steel wool by itself and the rat can pull it out. Foam by itself and the rat can chew thru it. Together they work because as the rat chews the foam he'll encounter strands of the steel wool. When he does it'll "floss" his teeth and makes his gums bleed. When he tastes his own blood, he'll stop chewing. The trick is not to stuff the steel wool tightly into the hole. You want it in loosely so you can inject the foam into it as opposed to around it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not yelling caps were locked


Humn, Keeper, looks like the Nasty Weather Service, is always yelling! with their forecast!

He, He!
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Humn, Keeper, looks like the Nasty Weather Service, is always yelling! with their forecast!

He, He!


Not the Tallahassee office. Check out their discussion, it's actually readable. I wish the other NWS offices would follow their example.
Metro Palm Beach County...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a Wind Chill
Advisory... which is in effect from 2 am to 9 am EST Sunday.

* Wind chill values... a northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph along
with temperatures around 40 to the mid 40s will result in wind
chill readings of 28 to 34 degrees for several hours.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and wind will
combine to generate low wind chills. This can lead to hypothermia
if precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors...
make sure you wear a hat and gloves.
Here is the new update by SPC related to a possible severe event for next week.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2013

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...PARTICULARLY WITH
REGARD TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DIG
INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP MID-LEVEL CLOSED
LOW MAY EVOLVE AS THE IMPULSE MIGRATES INLAND...BUT IT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE EMERGES FROM THE STRONG
UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...AND APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY MID WEEK.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM...WHICH STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
LIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING...SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE
THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED
ON THURSDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO
DESTABILIZATION...AND RETURN FLOW CONTINUES OFF AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AS THIS MOISTURE OVERRUNS A RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
...THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY BROAD. BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SIZABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...AT LEAST ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE ON THE MORE STRONGLY DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW... AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 02/16/2013

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Use steel wool and Great Stuff Foam to close the hole. Steel wool by itself and the rat can pull it out. Foam by itself and the rat can chew thru it. Together they work because as the rat chews the foam he'll encounter strands of the steel wool. When he does it'll "floss" his teeth and makes his gums bleed. When he tastes his own blood, he'll stop chewing. The trick is not to stuff the steel wool tightly into the hole. You want it in loosely so you can inject the foam into it as opposed to around it.


Never heard of that before..
Makes sense..
I made a note of it..
Thanks Doug..
Morning all. It did indeed rain a couple more times before I got up this morning. Official total so far is 1/2 inch, though I'd bet some locations along the north coast of New Providence got up to an inch. Lots of water standing in the roads this morning... and this suggests more rain in the offing.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET February 16 2013
================================

Depression se Comblant, Former GINO:
Position at 09Z: 25.9S 88.7E
movement east northeastward at 5 knots.
MSLP is 1002 hPa.
Max 10mn winds estimated at 20-25 knots reaching 30-35 knots locally 40 knots in the southwestern semicircle up to 280 NM due to gradient effect.

Available numerical weather prediction models forecast a westwards track beyond 12 hours filling up on the northern edge of the subtropiocal ridge.

In the Mozambique Channel:
Within the past few hours, convective activity has enhanced between 10S and 21S and east of 39E, within a convergence line in the center of the channel. Last animated satellite pictures show a low level circulation located approximately near 17.8S 37.8E, near the Mozambican coasts. Minimal sea level pressure is estimated at 1005 hPa. Maximum winds (10 min average) are of the order of 15 knots but reach 20-25 knots locally 30 knots in the monsoon flow and under the convection east of the low level circulation center.

Despite of favorable conditions, a monsoon flow remaining good in the north, a foretasted enhancement of the trade inflow southward, and a good upper level divergence under the ridge, the system is not expected to intensify in the next 24 hours, due to the limiting factor of the vicinity of the Mozambique coastlines

Numerical weather prediction models analyze this low and forecast a northeastward movement along the Mozambique coastlines up to 12-18 hours, then Southwards after. Beyond 36 hours in its movement southward, system is forecast to deepen progressively, over high energetic potential seas.

For the next 24-48 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression in the Mozambique Channel is weak. Beyond, potential becomes fair to good.
Steel wool plus foam... never would have thought of that...

It's amazing what u can learn on this blog...
Looks a lot like here right now... albeit 25 degrees warmer. I was expecting temps to fall off more than they have so far... but looking at the sat imagery it's obvious we've only just begun...
Quoting KoritheMan:


I just took a shower and I think I found the spot. There's a gap on the wall near the bottom left of the bathroom cabinet right between the bottom right of the doorframe and the cabinet itself. I've done some research, and apparently it's not uncommon for mice or rats to crawl through spaces that are seemingly impossible for anything else to fit through. At least I know wasn't just seeing things.


I was having a problem with big, fat slugs finding their way into the kitchen and leaving slimy trails all over the lino. Some of them made it into the living room, and I had slime trails on the carpet.

Couldn't figure out how they were getting in. Then, one day, I went into the kitchen when it was dark, and stood on one in my bare feet, before I could get to the light switch. I'm not the most squeamish, but squashing 3" long fat slimy slugs in my bare feet on my kitchen floor got to me, and I decided to do a thorough search.

I pulled out the fridge and found a tiny hole where the lino met the skirting board. It led to a gap space under the house. Taped it up and haven't been bothered since. Have also eliminated beetles and other creepy crawlies since taping it.
We just changed over to all snow in Chapel Hill, NC. Nice sight!!!
Quoting Chapelhill:
We just changed over to all snow in Chapel Hill, NC. Nice sight!!!
Seems like this is the time of year for snow in that part of the Piedmont... think we had snow on the ground the week of Valentine's Day every year I lived in Greensboro....
Wonder if that means DC115 got her snow after all...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Seems like this is the time of year for snow in that part of the Piedmont... think we had snow on the ground the week of Valentine's Day every year I lived in Greensboro....
Jan to mid Feb. is our main period, but it has become much less common in the past 20 yrs. The events in general are lighter in amounts and are more ice than snow.
Quoting pcola57:
NOAA Image of the Day



Dec 10, 2012

The incredibly accurate 5-day forecasts for Hurricanes Irene and Sandy have illustrated the improvements in both observations and numerical weather models. But what would happen to these forecasts if some observations were lost? The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) recently ran an experiment that removed all of the polar-orbiting satellite data from their numerical weather models and re-ran their forecasts for Hurricane Sandy. The result: without the data from polar-orbiting satellites, Sandy%u2019s forecast track would not have made the turn in-land, and instead would have remained out to sea.

This image uses the model output from the ECMWF experiment, showing where Sandy was predicted to be located 4 days out with the normal satellite data inputs into the model (left) and without any polar-orbiting satellite data (right). Both position and intensity forecasts were affected %u2013 Sandy stays out to sea without the polar-orbiting satellite data, and the closer isobar lines encircling the storm also imply a more organized and stronger system.

More information on the results of the ECMWF%u2019s data denial study can be found at NOAA.gov.


Hi Pcola...sure it's the image of the day...
Morning everybody from a calm afternoon in Germany without interesting weather ...

Arctic Ocean Is On Thin Ice: European Satellite Confirms Numbers

Feb. 13, 2013 — The September 2012 record low in Arctic sea-ice extent was big news, but a missing piece of the puzzle was lurking below the ocean's surface. What volume of ice floats on Arctic waters? And how does that compare to previous summers? These are difficult but important questions, because how much ice actually remains suggests how vulnerable the ice pack will be to more warming.

New satellite observations confirm a University of Washington analysis that for the past three years has produced widely quoted estimates of Arctic sea-ice volume. Findings based on observations from a European Space Agency satellite, published online in Geophysical Research Letters, show that the Arctic has lost more than a third of summer sea-ice volume since a decade ago, when a U.S. satellite collected similar data.

Combining the UW model and the new satellite observations suggests the summer minimum in Arctic sea ice is one-fifth of what it was in 1980, when the model begins.

"Other people had argued that 75 to 80 percent ice volume loss was too aggressive," said co-author Axel Schweiger, a polar scientist in the UW Applied Physics Laboratory. "What this new paper shows is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that the recent decline is possibly more rapid."

Source and more to read on Science Daily
Snow in North Carolina Piedmont this morning.
Link
Look at the south..

Quoting LargoFl:


watch out for the freeze there
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


watch out for the freeze there
thanks, im surrounded by water so it will be high 30's here, no freeze but north and east of me whew...hard freeze.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
526 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...WINDCHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS ALL BUT SOME
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS BY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20
MPH WINDS WILL LEAD TO COLD WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM 20 TO
35 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-162100 -
/O.NEW.KTBW.WC.Y.0002.130217T0600Z-130217T1500Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...NORTH PORT...SARASOTA...VENICE...
ARCADIA...PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
526 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO
10 AM EST SUNDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOWS AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AND 25 TO 35 DECREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. COLDEST READINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL
DROP TO 35 OR LOWER...EXCEPT 25 OR LOWER ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
AND SUMTER COUNTY.

&&

$$

MJG
Some somehow weather related mischief happened to a railway line in the UK. Have a look at the always interesting blog of Prof. Petley about landslides all over the world.

15 February 2013
New aerial photos of the Hatfield Stainforth colliery landslide

More information is now emerging about the Hatfield Stainforth landslide colliery landslide near to Doncaster in England.




Edit: Way too much rain in the UK is causing several problems, here is another one:

U.K. Farmers Face Seed Shortage as Spring Planting Set to Surge
By Whitney McFerron - Feb 15, 2013 2:36 PM GMT 0100
Farmers in the U.K. are facing a shortage of seeds as planting of spring crops is set to surge, after record rainfall last year in England muddied fields and left less land available to be sown with winter crops.
Source and more
7-day for Tampa Bay area....stay warm this weekend...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
Good Morning Everyone!

Reports are heavy snow is sticking to cars and grounds in the Piedmont area contrary to the warm surface some people were saying would inhibit the snow..seems the GFS was right so Im looking forward to my 3-4 inches it predicted for me..

Come on SNOW!!

PS..there is another system on the way:)so more SNOW might be in our sights
stormy in the northeast..............
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...ACCUMULATING WET SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE TODAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF WET SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

NCZ007>010-025-026-041-077-085-086-162300-
/O.EXT.KRAH.WW.Y.0004.130216T1420Z-130217T0900Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-WAK E-HARNETT-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...RALEIGH...LILLIN GTON...
LAURINBURG...RAEFORD
920 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR...OR
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM ROXBORO TO
DURHAM... RALEIGH...AND LAURINBURG. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
TRIANGLE... INCLUDING HENDERSON...WARRENTON...LOUISBURG...
ROCKY MOUNT...AND ROANOKE RAPIDS.

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE OR SNOW ON AREA ROADS WILL FREEZE AND CREATE
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WILL PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES DUE TO RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES. ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE... ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR NORTH OF DURHAM OR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
NORTH OF ROCKY MOUNT.

* TIMING...THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SKIES
RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

* IMPACTS...WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP ROADWAYS MAINLY
WET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING AND
MOISTURE ON THE ROAD FREEZES.
Woke up and watched the rain quickly change to all snow here in Cary NC about 20 minutes ago. Hope we get a few inches from this thing!
Temperatures here in central NC are about 5 degrees cooler than expected, causing the change from rain to snow to come a good 5-6 hours earlier than they were calling for (they still havent updated the winter weather advisory, which doesnt begin until 4PM). I guess they were right about one thing- that the forecast was a low confidence one!
Mississippi continues to look to be the target for a tornado outbreak Thursday of next week. Instability is still lacking according to the models, but this may just be a normal long-range issue.

Scary-looking hodograph. Best one I've seen in a long time. Any supercell with this kind of wind shear setup would have the potential to produce a significant-violent tornado.

everyone have a good friday.
ncstorm, if what is going on here in central NC is any indication, you will see some snow today! Were much colder than forecasted here, now down to 34 (supposed to be 41). I hope for your sake and all my friends still down there in Wilm that the snow makes it all the way to the beach! :)
Hey guys
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
WKC!!!

Hey what up
Quoting pcola57:
Now that the front has moved thru my area the winds are picking up quickly..
Currently steady 14mph gusting to 24mph..
Wind Advisory now Issued..

Statement as of 8:43 AM CST on February 16, 2013

... Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM CST this
afternoon...

* timing... from 9 am to 5 PM CST.

* Winds... northwest 15 to 25 mph... with frequent gusts around 30
mph.

* Impacts... winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Loose... unsecured
objects can also be blown around.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds or frequent gusts of
25 to 39 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.
..Local Met said its going to get real Windy here also,hence the wind chill alerts.......
This is going to be one of my most enjoyable weekends
With that cold front coming in a few hours
Old Man Winter is far from over huh..........
If these showers came thru tonight it would be snow...
WKC, just woke up to the surprise of snow where I live in Cary, NC (just west of Raleigh) and have been enjoying that this morning. Used to live up north, then in Wilmington, NC and now near Raleigh, so I miss the snow and dont get to see it often... but looks like we may get a few inches this time! How is your weather? Make the warm weather fans of the blog jealous :)
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
ncstorm, if what is going on here in central NC is any indication, you will see some snow today! Were much colder than forecasted here, now down to 34 (supposed to be 41). I hope for your sake and all my friends still down there in Wilm that the snow makes it all the way to the beach! :)


yeah, its getting cloudy here now..looking forward to the pretty white flakes..The GFS did another Debby where all the other models were wrong..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Last night the NWS used the term "blossom" in reference to what the precipitation will do over central NC this morning. After that radar you just posted, I see they were right. Only thing they were wrong about is the temperatures- now at 33 degrees, 8 degrees colder than expected today. Snow wasnt supposed to start until 3PM and looks like we will already have a few inches on the ground by then
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NOR`EASTER WILL DEVELOP WELL SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT TONIGHT
AND TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...2 TO 3 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...BUT IF THE TRACK WERE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...THIS STORM COULD BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION.
I Hope this Nor'easter tomorrow stays far offshore....
Frank Strait posted last night why NC would see more snow than predicted..

Good explanation of the setup we are currently looking at..
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1039 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...

SCZ015-016-020>022-026>029-031-037-038-170145-
/O.CON.KCAE.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130217T0400Z/
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW -SALUDA-
LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-SUMTER-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LANCASTER...ELGIN...CHERAW...PAGELAND...
NEWBERRY...WINNSBORO...CAMDEN...LUGOFF...SALUDA.. .RIDGE SPRING...
WEST COLUMBIA...CAYCE...LEXINGTON...RED BANK...COLUMBIA...
BISHOPVILLE...SUMTER...ST. MATTHEWS...MANNING...SUMMERTON
1039 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND NORTH MIDLANDS...AND PEE DEE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
NORTH MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF TRACE TO 1 INCH
IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS INCLUDING COLUMBIA.

* TIMING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING IN THE EARLY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MAINLY ON GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME
SLIPPERY.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
Quoting Grothar:


Hi Grothar. The loop current looks very warm for being Febuary.Here are the sst anomalies.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1058 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN
...GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES
CHIPOLA RIVER AT MARIANNA (US 90) AFFECTING JACKSON COUNTY
CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA (CR 274) AFFECTING CALHOUN COUNTY
Anybody in central North Carolina want to tell me the type of snow falling? With temperatures in the upper 30s in some locations with snow still falling, I'd assume it's heavy, wet snow.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SUNDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED: SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND
INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS: SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS PRIMARILY ON
GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

* TIMING: MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM...AND REMAIN AS ALL SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS: MAINLY SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FALLING SNOW WILL ALSO LIMIT VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE
OR LESS DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOW. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN SLICK ROADS AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody in central North Carolina want to tell me the type of snow falling? With temperatures in the upper 30s in some locations with snow still falling, I'd assume it's heavy, wet snow.


It was heavy wet snow with extremely large flakes earlier. Now it is just light to moderate snow, smaller flakes. Not coming down quite hard enough to stick to the pavement, but the grass is just about covered, and closing in on an inch on the deck. Temperature has dropped to 33-35 degrees depending where you're located so melting isnt as big an issue as they had anticipated... but at the same time, wont stick to roads unless its coming down very heavily.

Edit to add: Location is Cary NC just west of Raleigh
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT. MULTIPLE HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST
INCLUDING SUMTER COUNTY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE INLAND
AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS IN NORTHEAST LEVY COUNTY...AND THE 20S IN MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL GENERATE SEAS OF 8 TO
10 FEET TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG RIP CURRENTS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LOW HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO ELEVATE THE RISK OF
FIRE SPREADING THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN EVERY COUNTY IN THE AREA. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NATURE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S...AND IN INLAND AND LOW LYING AREAS. IN
ADDITION...WINDS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CAUSE FURTHER DANGER TO ANYONE CAUGHT OUTSIDE UNPROTECTED AGAINST
THE COLD.
Rain in Maine falls mainly on the sane.
We had about 30 minutes of big wet flakes around 8:30 this morning but it's been very fine snow/rn mix since. Nothing on the ground at all and temps are holding in the upper 30's. Unless there is another batch coming through and a drop in temps it doesn't look like we will have much of anything - Winter Weather Advisory here in Charlotte might be a bust this time!
I-540 in Raleigh NC..............
I-81 near Richmond VA...................
.
Quoting ncstorm:


That thing shows a mix where Im at... but its definitely all snow. Coming down pretty hard again. Enjoy your afternoon and be safe everyone. I'll check back in later hopefully after a lot more snow
We had fog early this morning but cleared up quickly now sunny and almost dead calm but I know that will change as the day progresses
Quoting LargoFl:
I-81 near Richmond VA...................


Where?? I81 goes through Roanoke - I85 goes near Richmond. I would guess that I81 wourd have more snow on the ground since it is in the Shenandoah Mtns.


Going from Nice to not so Nice.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody in central North Carolina want to tell me the type of snow falling? With temperatures in the upper 30s in some locations with snow still falling, I'd assume it's heavy, wet snow.
I woke up to see the snow falling outside. It's pretty light to moderate where I am and it's not sticking to the ground.
NWS, Raleigh NC

THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG TROUGH DYNAMICS AND RESULTANT COOLING
ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES TO GO ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED DEEP LAYER
FGEN...COULD SUPPORT A BAND OR MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL
PIVOTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. AS MUCH 3 TO
6 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE BANDS...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF US 1 AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 64 AND INTERSTATE 85. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
AND THESE AREAS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.


PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY MOISTURE ON
ROADS TO BECOME SLICK...MAKING TRAVELING DIFFICULT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
This is so weird... there is absolutely no wind with the first real thunderstorm of the year for Nassau! A gale warning is up for us too...

635. txjac
Quoting Thrawst:
This is so weird... there is absolutely no wind with the first real thunderstorm of the year for Nassau! A gale warning is up for us too...



Looks ominous and threatening
Ok, it's snowing heavily right now and it's sticking to the ground! The grass is covered in snow pretty good. I just took pictures and I'll upload them later.
Quoting Thrawst:
This is so weird... there is absolutely no wind with the first real thunderstorm of the year for Nassau! A gale warning is up for us too...

Hey, Thrawst... it's just light rain and threatening skies so far here in Palmdale. Looks like it's going to pour very shortly....
Enjoy the snow those North Carolinians..
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Thrawst... it's just light rain and threatening skies so far here in Palmdale. Looks like it's going to pour very shortly....


Pretty sure it just rained 1.5 inches in 20 minutes. It stopped now. You're gonna get some flooding like I did.
Quoting ncstorm:


yeah, its getting cloudy here now..looking forward to the pretty white flakes..The GFS did another Debby where all the other models were wrong..
There has to be some way to forecast when GFS as lone outrider is right...
Quoting Thrawst:


Pretty sure it just rained 1.5 inches in 20 minutes. It stopped now. You're gonna get some flooding like I did.
Yeah... already starting to come down harder... glad I'm not driving anywhere right now.
LOL... already having some localized flooding outside the place where I am... looks like May, not February.

Wouldn't the elevated loop temps increase TPW values with this system?
Quoting ncstorm:
NWS, Raleigh NC

THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG TROUGH DYNAMICS AND RESULTANT COOLING
ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES TO GO ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED DEEP LAYER
FGEN...COULD SUPPORT A BAND OR MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL
PIVOTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. AS MUCH 3 TO
6 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE BANDS...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF US 1 AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 64 AND INTERSTATE 85. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
AND THESE AREAS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.


PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY MOISTURE ON
ROADS TO BECOME SLICK...MAKING TRAVELING DIFFICULT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
..this might mean the GFS was right all along huh...now 3-6 inches ..up from 1-3...stay safe up there
Quoting BahaHurican:
There has to be some way to forecast when GFS as lone outrider is right...


they mentioned it as an outlier in their forecasts, I guess thats all they can do sometimes..
Quoting ncstorm:


they mentioned it as an outlier in their forecasts, I guess thats all they can do sometimes..
What I was thinking about was a comparative study of instances like this and Debbie where GFS correctly forecasted track / precipitation while all the other models were wrong. What do they have in common? I. E. is there some specific set of circumstances when the GFS can be given greater weight?
sky is getting darker here,but looks like the showers are going to st.pete on the radar.
Back to light rain... was that 20 minutes yet?
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==============================================

12:01 am PhST: A Low Pressure Area has developed over East of Mindanao but still outside Philippine Area of Responsibility and is expected to enter within 24 hours.
Dual-pol is more useful than regular radar in forecasting snow and tracking them.



Upper Left Panel: Base Reflectivity, which is used to tell how heavy the rain/snow is falling.

Upper Right Panel: KDP product, which is used to tell how dry/wet the rain/snow are. KDP is more useful in severe weather to tell where the thick, heavy rain is located and if it's mixing with hail or not.

Lower Left Panel: CC product, which is used to tell if it's the sleet/mix (yellow/green/orange) or heavy snow (purple) that is falling. It's also useful in severe weather in identifying hail and sometimes can be used to locates tornadoes by locating derbis.

Lower Right Panel: HCA product, which is used to tell what kind of prep is falling. For example, light blue is dry snow falling while light red is graupel.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==============================================

12:01 am PhST: A Low Pressure Area has developed over East of Mindanao but still outside Philippine Area of Responsibility and is expected to enter within 24 hours.


Here is 98W that looks fairly good.

Hey guys, if you are longing for a lot (!) of snow visit Himalaya right now (but be careful because of avalanches ...)

Times of India, Feb 16, 2013, 06.43 AM IST

Solang near Manali recorded 15cm snow while Rohtang pass has got over 30 cm in the last 20 hours. The total snow accumulation at Rohtang pass is expected to be near 25 feet (750 cm).

Shimla meteorological office has issued warning of heavy snowfall in the upper reaches in the next 48 hours. The local administration in Manali has alerted tourists not to go towards isolated areas as snow may trap them. An alert has also been sounded in Lahaul-Spiti district.


Edit: And you even won't have to go that far. Record breaking amounts of snow in the pyrenees as well.
getting some good wind gusts here now............
According to my WUnderWidgets, it is now cooler here in Nassau than it is in Fort Lauderdale... oh and the rain is done, so I'm going to make a quick run.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ARE
EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 4 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
IF VENTURING OUTDOORS TONIGHT WEAR LAYERS OF CLOTHING...A HAT AND
GLOVES. REMEMBER TO COVER COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND BRING IN
OUTDOOR PETS AND PROVIDE SHELTER TO ANIMALS THAT STAY OUTDOORS.

THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH WILL PRODUCT LATE NIGHT WIND CHILL VALUES FROM THE 20S
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW AND MID 30S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4
TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WEAR LAYERS OF CLOTHING...A HAT AND GLOVES IF
VENTURING OUTDOORS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
AND BE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING
IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND 10
TO 14 FOOT SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDS OVER ALL
AREAS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT.
Quoting LargoFl:


I see gale force winds in the Gulf on that map, though they won't be nearly that strong over land.
From Frank Strait..the next winter storm from the GFS..as he said Winter is not over





Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody in central North Carolina want to tell me the type of snow falling? With temperatures in the upper 30s in some locations with snow still falling, I'd assume it's heavy, wet snow.


Huge wet flakes and not sticking yet here near Rocky Mount.
looks like So.Fla did ok on the rains,much needed...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED THROUGH SUNDAY.
Going to be a cold night for me in the low 30's!!:)



MLB NWS~ WEAR LAYERS OF CLOTHING...A HAT AND GLOVES IF
VENTURING OUTDOORS AFTER MIDNIGHT...they should remind us to dig out some other shoes than our sandals too. It been such a warm winter I've seen some dumbstruck cold, ill dressed peeps in the few cold snaps we have had.

pcola~ Thanks so much for the snow update for up there. I've been waiting for it to turn 1/2 the morning.
Snow in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Some snow accumulation is possible.

@ Barbamz... what what the name of that festival you told me of because I wanted to look it up, and I forgot

It rained before it started.
Thundersnow is being reported across southwestern NC and upstate South Carolina.
Quoting Skyepony:



MLB NWS~ WEAR LAYERS OF CLOTHING...A HAT AND GLOVES IF
VENTURING OUTDOORS AFTER MIDNIGHT...they should remind us to dig out some other shoes than our sandals too. It been such a warm winter I've seen some dumbstruck cold, ill dressed peeps in the few cold snaps we have had.

pcola~ Thanks so much for the snow update for up there. I've been waiting for it to turn 1/2 the morning.


Your welcome Sky.
Its some of the most beautiful country there..
I just love it.. :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ Barbamz... what what the name of that festival you told me of because I wanted to look it up, and I forgot

It rained before it started.


For your convenience: English article on Wiki :)
Quoting barbamz:


For your convenience: English article on Wiki :)


Thanks
Quoting Skyepony:



MLB NWS~ WEAR LAYERS OF CLOTHING...A HAT AND GLOVES IF
VENTURING OUTDOORS AFTER MIDNIGHT...they should remind us to dig out some other shoes than our sandals too. It been such a warm winter I've seen some dumbstruck cold, ill dressed peeps in the few cold snaps we have had.

pcola~ Thanks so much for the snow update for up there. I've been waiting for it to turn 1/2 the morning.


No appropriate clothing, lol: China today


A swimmer dives into the icy water of the Houhai Lake in central Beijing, February 16, 2013. REUTERS/Petar Kujundzic (CHINA - Tags: SOCIETY ENVIRONMENT TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Source
I just watched this on TWC TV, you might have seen it before online.

GFS skill on handling though weather situations...

Is U.S. Global Weather Prediction Falling Behind?


click on the linked picture to go over to weather.com video.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Snow in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Some snow accumulation is possible.

That radar isn't doing a great job this afternoon... it's snowing pretty heavily here while it's showing rain on the radar earlier.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I just watched this on TWC TV, you might have seen it before online.

GFS skill on handling though weather situations...

Is U.S. Global Weather Prediction Falling Behind?


click on the picture-link to go over to weather.com video.


I think GFS needs another upgrade as the ECMWF has taken over as the king of the global models.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
That radar isn't doing a great job this afternoon... it's snowing pretty heavily here while it's showing rain on the radar earlier.


In my case during "Nemo" the radar showed exactly the opposite; rain over my area but it was snowing and it never rained..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Snow in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Some snow accumulation is possible.



I would say that a LOT of snow accumulation is likely. Most of the models failed to forecast this accurately, except for the GFS perhaps.

On the radar it is clear that even though the returns are spotty in the mountains, as is usually the case, it is snowing heavily in places like Boone and Franklin, NC, not just the Piedmont and E/C NC. The orographic uplift effect will enhance the snowfall in those mountainous areas, as always.

It also looks as if this low pressure system might bring a lot more snow to the eastern parts of the NE US than has been forecast up to this point. The track of the storm is key but also the dynamics are coming together faster than originally thought.

And finally, all this snow in the Appalachian region and further east in the SE US will enhance the cold weather event further south, such as in Florida. Looks like the NWS will have significantly underestimated the extent and degree of the cold over Florida for the next couple of days. Already, they are trying to update their temp forecasts on the fly but if it gets cold enough to affect agricultural interests then things could get dicey due to lack of adequate pre-warning.
Photos captured immediately before, then during the light-flare as the Chelyabinsk meteor burst

Apparently the 100thousand sq.meters (1.1million sq.feet) of broken window glass was an underestimate. The figure is now up to 1.8million sq.feet (167thousand sq.metres)
Looks like central NC may be in the clear. The heaviest snow has passed, and it seems to be mixing in with rain again. It was nice while it lasted, but hope those in eastern NC are prepared, they may actually get enough to stick to the roads and cause problems for people not used to snow.
Percents have increased in the chances of seeing 4 inches or less..from the HPC

Quoting ncstorm:
Percents have increased in the chances of seeing 4 inches or less..from the HPC


4 inches or greater, not less.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Looks like central NC may be in the clear. The heaviest snow has passed, and it seems to be mixing in with rain again. It was nice while it lasted, but hope those in eastern NC are prepared, they may actually get enough to stick to the roads and cause problems for people not used to snow.
It's still snowing pretty good here near Clayton/Garner.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

4 inches or greater, not less.


No its less than or equal to 4 inches..

>4
My National Weather Service office in Upton, NYC.
Right after Nemo...just found this picture btw.

Quoting ncstorm:


No its less than or equal to 4 inches..

>4


That doesn't make sense. its greater than 4
Quoting Skyepony:



MLB NWS~ WEAR LAYERS OF CLOTHING...A HAT AND GLOVES IF
VENTURING OUTDOORS AFTER MIDNIGHT...they should remind us to dig out some other shoes than our sandals too. It been such a warm winter I've seen some dumbstruck cold, ill dressed peeps in the few cold snaps we have had.

pcola~ Thanks so much for the snow update for up there. I've been waiting for it to turn 1/2 the morning.
Got caught in sandals just now... not as helpful as a solid pair of shoes when it rains as much as it has this afternoon... sure glad I made my run into FL last weekend, when things were just "nippy"...

Quoting ncstorm:


No its less than or equal to 4 inches..

>4

I though ">" is greater than and "<" is less than.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I though ">" is greater than and "<" is less than.



That is correct. For instance, there is a 100% chance that miami receives less than or equal to 4 inches of snow.. lol...
Quoting ncstorm:


No its less than or equal to 4 inches..

>4

The alligator eats the bigger number.

5 > 4

Greater than.
Quoting ecupirate:


That doesn't make sense. its greater than 4


its written like that on the HPC website..and the less than sign is written as >4..if it was greater than 4 inches,it would be written as <4 (Viewing Options)

Quoting ecupirate:



That is correct. For instance, there is a 100% chance that miami receives less than or equal to 4 inches of snow.. lol...

If the 384hr 12z GFS is correct, which it isn't, then snow wouldn't be too far away from Miami at all.
Quoting ncstorm:


its written like that on the HPC website..and the less than sign is written as >4..if it was greater than 4 inches,it would be written as <4 (Viewing Options)


Taken from the information on the products section, hopefully this clears up any confusion.

"Probabilities of exceeding a threshold show filled contour levels of probability that the 24-hour or 48-hour accumulation of winter precipitation will equal or exceed the given threshold. As an example, consider the 6-inch threshold for snowfall. If a point of interest falls within the 40% contour on the probability map, then the chance of snowfall exceeding 6 inches is 40% or greater. As the threshold values increase, the probabilities of exceeding them decrease. "

Quoting ncstorm:


its written like that on the HPC website..and the less than sign is written as >4..if it was greater than 4 inches,it would be written as <4 (Viewing Options)



NOAA has it right. You just have it a little backwards... :)
686 trHUrrIXC5MMX: My National Weather Service office in Upton, NYC. Right after Nemo...

Nice of them to tee up that golf ball so the IceGiants could play through.
sorry guys,you right..I was having a senior moment..:p
Looks like rain is finally done here for the time being. Most of the water's run off already, but I bet a few low-lying areas will continue to be saturated overnight. Looks like we're going to pick up well over an inch, considerably more than the usual .05 inch we normally get... lol

Back to lurking...


Quoting ncstorm:
sorry guys,you right..I was having a senior moment..:p


Happens to the best of us, especially on a SNOW DAY :)
Is really bone dry in most of the Caribbean and in part of the MDR. Is the dry season in the islands but if vertical instability doesn't moist up by the summer,then any Caribbean Cruiser will have a hard time sustaining.

Quoting ncstorm:
sorry guys,you right..I was having a senior moment..:p
This is as in Grade 12... right????

LOL
Looks like even Habana and N coast Cuba may get some precip from this system... I agree there's a huge contrast between the orange and blue sections, Tropicswxpr...
Quoting ncstorm:
sorry guys,you right..I was having a senior moment..:p

It's ok, it happens to everybody. I've had one of those recently.
Quoting wxchaser97:

It's ok, it happens to everybody. I've had one of those recently.


same here
Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like even Habana and N coast Cuba may get some precip from this system... I agree there's a huge contrast between the orange and blue sections, Tropicswxpr...


Here in PR we have been thru many forest fires in the Southern part of the island as it has not rained there for weeks. In fact for 2013 so far the rainfall in San Juan is -1.21 inches below normal.
656 barbamz: ...Record breaking snow in the Pyranees (French/Spain border) as well.

Your link-attempt is missing the address. Fixed it (here) with a link to a similar story, but I'd like to see your article as well.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's still snowing pretty good here near Clayton/Garner.

Same for me in Chapel Hill.
________________

My new Blog...CHECK IT OUT.

comment if you'd like.
________________

I worked on it overnight since I was up.
Quoting aspectre:
656 barbamz: ...Record breaking snow in the Pyranees (French/Spain border) as well.

Your link-attempt is missing the address. Fixed it with a link to a similar story, but I'd like to see your article as well


O, sorry, it works for me though. (Edit: Yeah, it was wrong, I've fixed it) Here the article:

French resort breaks world snow record (Feb, 12th)

Cauterets, in the French Pyrenees, has overtaken the world record for snow at a ski resort, with a massive 5 metres [16 ft] of snow on the ground - 2013 enough to keep the slopes open for business until mid April.

According to the French newspaper La Figaro, as of Sunday the resort had more snow than any other ski resort in the world, beating the record held until now by Mammoth Mountain in the USA.

The record levels have been due to it snowing in Cauterets every day since January 13, with France Meteo's forecasts suggesting that the snow will continue falling in the days ahead, with almost one metre extra likely to be added by the middle of next week.

Cauterets has always received an ample supply of snow even in years when other resorts in the region have been less fortunate, but the quantity of snow this year has surprised everyone.

However, this amount of snow has its drawbacks, with some ski slopes being forced to close for safety reasons and sixty people currently working to clear the resort of the excess.

With suitable conditions on the ground likely to remain until mid-April, this has been greeted as good news for the resort and for the surrounding tourist infrastructure of hotels, restaurants and bed and breakfasts.

Less well known than the Alps for its skiing, resorts in the Pyrenees often offer more authentic mountain scenery with a less built up and more natural environment than their Alpine competitors.

Cauterets is less than an hour from the airport of Lourdes/Tarbes, which can be reached by flights from London Stansted and is also within striking distance of Toulouse, Pau and Biarritz.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Looks like central NC may be in the clear. The heaviest snow has passed, and it seems to be mixing in with rain again. It was nice while it lasted, but hope those in eastern NC are prepared, they may actually get enough to stick to the roads and cause problems for people not used to snow.
Actually, NWS is considering stepping advisories up to winter storm warnings north of Hwy.64 and east of US1 in central NC. A vort max with the deepening coastal low will set up some heavy snow bands this evening.
Nothing significant in terms of rainfall for Puerto Rico in the next seven days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST SAT FEB 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MON AS POLAR TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE ATLC. POLAR TROUGH LIFTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRENGTHENING
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ERODING ON MON AS
POLAR TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE ATLC WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THIS IS
LIKELY TO MANIFEST MORE IN CLOUD CLUSTERS THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH SOME
SPRINKLES AS WINDS INCREASE. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THEN
STRENGTHENS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. WINDY EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT DIMINISHING WINDS MID
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 16/12Z INDICATED A SOUTHEAST FLOW
10 TO 20 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EXITING THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL
TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT MON AND TUE WITH INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS MAKING FOR VERY ROUGH SEAS. NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ALSO
BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE-WED. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE THU AS SWELLS AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
LOOKS TO BE CLOUD COVER EXTENT AS ALL OTHER PARAMETERS...FUELS...
WINDS...AND STABILITY APPEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A SIG
FIRE WEATHER EPISODE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS TOMORROW WINDS
WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT AND MORE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP IMPROVE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE MON-
TUE AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTS/WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO MANIFEST MORE IN EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. ON TUE...GFS SHOWS WINDS INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY AND LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT WHILE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
UNSTABLE. MAIN KEY HERE WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 83 / 0 10 20 20
STT 74 84 74 85 / 10 10 30 30
Quoting Chapelhill:
Actually, NWS is considering stepping advisories up to winter storm warnings north of Hwy.64 and east of US1 in central NC. A vort max with the deepening coastal low will set up some heavy snow bands this evening.
I still don't think it'll snow that much, but you never know.
Quoting Chapelhill:

Same for me in Chapel Hill.


Me too here in Nashville, NC.
Edit: this is all being reported as snow..

Star-News
Cold rain to start pelting most of the Cape Fear region by 4 p.m., turning over to snow around dusk or in the early evening.
Frank Strait Fan Club
‎2" at GSP airport ... in less than 1 hour. #scwx
Wow, The wind sure has picked up here in the last half hour...Glad we came in from fishing when we did... We always listen to the radio, it was suggested smaller craft need to head in. But we did catch some fish.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I still don't think it'll snow that much, but you never know.
If you look at the KRDU radar, redevelopment is occuring from Danville, Va to Greensboro, NC now. It will be interesting to see where this stalls and pivots later this evening.
WECT News
New update. Snow reaches Bladenboro. Mixed bag E'town & Chadbourn. Change almost to Whiteville.
Quoting Chapelhill:
If you look at the KRDU radar, redevelopment is occuring from Danville, Va to Greensboro, NC now. It will be interesting to see where this stalls and pivots later this evening.


If it does pivot through central NC, any idea what time that would occur?
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


If it does pivot through central NC, any idea what time that would occur?
around 7-11 pm
Quoting Chapelhill:
If you look at the KRDU radar, redevelopment is occuring from Danville, Va to Greensboro, NC now. It will be interesting to see where this stalls and pivots later this evening.
I know there's 2nd band forming near Charlotte, I just still don't believe we'll get above 3". I also heard that band is dumping 1" to 2" of snow in many area, though... so I don't know. It's hard to forecast snow amounts here in NC.
Look at the heavy snow bands..as I said below,this is all being reported as snow..

The 12z GFS went insane at the end of its run. Not only does it have a huge snowstorm for much of the East Coast, it has a major tornado outbreak across Florida.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Wow, The wind sure has picked up here in the last half hour...Glad we came in from fishing when we did... We always listen to the radio, it was suggested smaller craft need to head in. But we did catch some fish.
What'd u catch?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 12z GFS went insane at the end of its run. Not only does it have a huge snowstorm for much of the East Coast, it has a major tornado outbreak across Florida.


Rut-Roh
Dancing with Wolves... kinda

Just remember to breathe slowly, lest your bubbles scare off the GreatWhite.
I've got a decent snow band over me with moderate to heavy snow falling. The only problem is, the ground is a little warm causing some of the snow not to stick. I am still hoping for my 1-3" of snow today. Thursday into Friday should be the best chance for snow and Monday into Tuesday the best chance for rain.
Quoting BahaHurican:
What'd u catch?
A few small yellowtail snapper, 2 lane snapper, a very nice triggerfish, and one nice porgy...
Frank Strait Fan Club
LOL ... nice little bow echo in Union Co, SC with 40 kt wind on radar ... with probably snow. What season is this again? #scwx
Pouring down rain and gusty here right now. This will turn to ice later when the temperature drops below freezing. Wonder if this will help snow accumulate faster...it's easier to do so on ice than soil.
Had 3 Bottlenose Dolphin leading the way for a while...I've seen them many times, but what a cool sight they are..
First comment, new year, new portrait photo! (: I wonder if this hurricane season will be as querky as the past few years? or be more typical with activity focused in the MDR regions (Caribbean, GOMEX, with real Cape Verde Storms). Not that there hasn't been activity in these regions, but there just has been a lack of robust storms it seems. As Levi says, "We shall see what happens!"
This is very interesting, while there certainly was no winter precip in north Florida this morning, as much colder air advects into the area, the air is so cold aloft it is creating enough instability for convective showers in South Carolina, Georgia, and almost reaching into my area despite the very dry air mass.

My hope is that these convective showers will continue into the evening and somehow snow will still manage to occur :)

This is very unlikely as the showers will die with day time heating.

What may be interesting though is along the west coast of Florida, there will be nocturnal showers due to nocturnal instability over water as lows drop into the 30's and 850 mb temps will drop to freezing into Central Florida, therefore any precip could fall as snow, maybe into the nature coast, further south the warmer gulf waters from such a warm winter overall would likely cause any initial snow in the cloud to melt before reaching the ground.


Of course any snow is highly unlikely, but just mentioning that there is an extremely slim outside chance of flurries on the upper west coast of Florida if there is still enough cold air generated instability to create showers as 850 mb temps drop to the freezing point or below.

The problem is, once 850 mb temps get that low, the air will be even that much drier, and surface temps will be much colder as well, therefore instability will be less, thus less lift and a lower chance of any precip. It's worth discussing although controversial :)
Quoting NCWatch:


Me too here in Nashville, NC.




Same here in Clayton
Not so weather related but still science..

A 6.2 quake hit south of the Philippine Islands yesterday around midnight EST, near Davao where Typhoon Bopha hit with a category 5 force.




No significant damage reported and no casualties.
Jeff Pitrowski is talking about Joplin at ChaserCon.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/severestudios
Quoting mommylynne:




Same here in Clayton
Nice to see someone from my area on WU
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I know there's 2nd band forming near Charlotte, I just still don't believe we'll get above 3". I also heard that band is dumping 1" to 2" of snow in many area, though... so I don't know. It's hard to forecast snow amounts here in NC.
True, I drove from CH to Raleigh and back earlier; some places had 1-2" on the ground, while other places nothing. It was hit and miss in nature. Some got lucky to be under a heavy burst that dropped the temp more along with heavy snowfall eventhough it has been snowing everywhere all day.
Quoting aspectre:
Dancing with Wolves... kinda

Just remember to breathe slowly, lest your bubbles scare off the GreatWhite.
Diver looks like a remora... lol
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
A few small yellowtail snapper, 2 lane snapper, a very nice triggerfish, and one nice porgy...
Mmm-Mmm! Good eating... lol ... well, we don't eat the triggerfish much here... unless it was a turbot...
Quoting opal92nwf:
First comment, new year, new portrait photo! (: I wonder if this hurricane season will be as querky as the past few years? or be more typical with activity focused in the MDR regions (Caribbean, GOMEX, with real Cape Verde Storms). Not that there hasn't been activity in these regions, but there just has been a lack of robust storms it seems. As Levi says, "We shall see what happens!"


I think it'll be pretty much the same as the last few years. The jet stream loops have moved south, there will probably be the same lack of vertical instability, and any hurricanes that do form will recurve northeastwards
NWS Raleigh Discussion...

...THAT TURNS OUR FOCUS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...TO WHAT WE THOUGHT WOULD BE THE PROVERBIAL "WILDCARD" WITH THIS WINTER EVENT. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG(PRODUCED 2 INCHES OF SNOW)...ALONG THE TILTING CUSP OF THE POTENT VORTMAX AND UNDERNEATH TREMENDOUS COOLING/STEEPING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS IMPRESSIVE WITH A COMMA HEAD/BAROCLINIC LEAF EMERGING...WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS FEATURE/CONVECTION WILL GET BETTER/STRONGER AS
THE UPPER PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO EXTEND DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.

THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER SNOW(EARTH NETWORK LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEM HAS DETECTED ONLY ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE AT THIS TIME BUT AN UPTICK IS QUITE POSSIBLE)!
It's snowing hard right now at Carolina Raptor Center near Charlotte Link
Temperatures are expected to be near 10F tomorrow night...with big winds maybe feeling near 0F here
Gone dark again here, with another round of rain. I expect this will be lighter than earlier, though.


confetti !!!
the surface low is beginning to take shape..lets see what this puppy does when it hits the water

Huge snowflakes are now mixing with the rain here.
its snowing here..finally..

More than 3,000 rail commuters were affected in China on Saturday after a reservoir in the northern Shanxi province partially collapsed due to old age, according to local officials quoted by state media. The top of an irrigation drain of the Quting Reservoir in Hongtong County caved in at about 07:00 am on Friday, leading to the partial collapse of its dam walls, China state television CCTV reported. Chinese authorities sent a rescue team to deal with the flooding caused by the collapse. Workers blocked the breach with sand bags and rocks. No casualties have been reported, but residents downstream from the reservoir were evacuated from their homes. Three provincial railway lines were suspended after the collapse and more than 3,000 passengers traveling at the end of the Spring Festival were affected. Early reports did not make clear if this was due to flooding or as a precautionary measure. CCTV carried footage showing many passengers getting their tickets refunded at the station. Source youtube
China holiday rail
Glad to see it's finally snowing down east NC. Thundersnow in the upstate of SC!

I'm sure this has been covered, but for those who may have missed it, NASA has this updated info on yesterday's Russian bolide:

New information provided by a worldwide network of sensors has allowed scientists to refine their estimates for the size of the object that entered that atmosphere and disintegrated in the skies over Chelyabinsk, Russia, at 7:20:26 p.m. PST, or 10:20:26 p.m. EST on Feb. 14 (3:20:26 UTC on Feb. 15).

The estimated size of the object, prior to entering Earth’s atmosphere, has been revised upward from 49 feet (15 meters) to 55 feet (17 meters), and its estimated mass has increased from 7,000 to 10,000 tons. Also, the estimate for energy released during the event has increased by 30 kilotons to nearly 500 kilotons of energy released. These new estimates were generated using new data that had been collected by five additional infrasound stations located around the world – the first recording the event being in Alaska, over 6,500 kilometers away from Chelyabinsk. The infrasound data indicates that the event, from atmospheric entry to the meteor’s airborne disintegration took 32.5 seconds.

The calculations using the infrasound data were performed by Peter Brown at the University of Western Ontario, Canada.

"We would expect an event of this magnitude to occur once every 100 years on average," said Paul Chodas of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "When you have a fireball of this size we would expect a large number of meteorites to reach the surface and in this case there were probably some large ones."
The trajectory of the Russia meteor was significantly different than the trajectory of the asteroid 2012 DA14, which hours later made its flyby of Earth, making it a completely unrelated object. The Russia meteor is the largest reported since 1908, when a meteor hit Tunguska, Siberia.


Anyway you slice it, that's a big rock: 55 feet in diameter; roughly 170 feet around the equator; approximately 10,000 tons; and all of it moving at greater than 10 km a second. One saving grace is that the impactor entered the atmosphere at such a shallow angle (less than 20 degrees); had it entered over Chelyabinsk vertically--that is, closer to 90 degrees--the energy would have been violently expended in just a few seconds instead of the more than 30 it took, and there likely would have been more than windows broken and 1200 injured.

It's odd to me that no pieces larger than the size of gravel have yet been found. I imagine it'll be just a matter of time, however, until the object's strewn field is defined, then picked over by an army of scientists and private collectors.
Quoting Chapelhill:
Glad to see it's finally snowing down east NC. Thundersnow in the upstate of SC!



we got a heavy band heading for us..I hope its thundersnow..never experience it..

More colorful map... careful there for those of you under alerts

Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm sure this has been covered, but for those who may have missed it, NASA has this updated info on yesterday's Russian bolide:


Thanks, Nea! Somewhere else I've read from NASA: Russian meteor exploded with force of 30 Hiroshima bombs

That's quite a horrible force!
we could have a run of systems for a bit

Quoting ncstorm:


we got a heavy band heading for us..I hope its thundersnow..never experience it..


That certainly looks convective, so it's possible. It's best after dark, but cool to see/hear anytime. Nonetheless, you are in for some heavy snow. Enjoy!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Huge snowflakes are now mixing with the rain here.
I forgot where you are...near Greenville?
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Quoting Chapelhill:
I forgot where you are...near Greenville?

Rocky Point. North of Wilmington, south of Wallace.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm sure this has been covered, but for those who may have missed it, NASA has this updated info on yesterday's Russian bolide:

New information provided by a worldwide network of sensors has allowed scientists to refine their estimates for the size of the object that entered that atmosphere and disintegrated in the skies over Chelyabinsk, Russia, at 7:20:26 p.m. PST, or 10:20:26 p.m. EST on Feb. 14 (3:20:26 UTC on Feb. 15).

The estimated size of the object, prior to entering Earth’s atmosphere, has been revised upward from 49 feet (15 meters) to 55 feet (17 meters), and its estimated mass has increased from 7,000 to 10,000 tons. Also, the estimate for energy released during the event has increased by 30 kilotons to nearly 500 kilotons of energy released. These new estimates were generated using new data that had been collected by five additional infrasound stations located around the world – the first recording the event being in Alaska, over 6,500 kilometers away from Chelyabinsk. The infrasound data indicates that the event, from atmospheric entry to the meteor’s airborne disintegration took 32.5 seconds.

The calculations using the infrasound data were performed by Peter Brown at the University of Western Ontario, Canada.

"We would expect an event of this magnitude to occur once every 100 years on average," said Paul Chodas of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "When you have a fireball of this size we would expect a large number of meteorites to reach the surface and in this case there were probably some large ones."
The trajectory of the Russia meteor was significantly different than the trajectory of the asteroid 2012 DA14, which hours later made its flyby of Earth, making it a completely unrelated object. The Russia meteor is the largest reported since 1908, when a meteor hit Tunguska, Siberia.


Anyway you slice it, that's a big rock: 55 feet in diameter; roughly 170 feet around the equator; approximately 10,000 tons; and all of it moving at greater than 10 km a second. One saving grace is that the impactor entered the atmosphere at such a shallow angle (less than 20 degrees); had it entered over Chelyabinsk vertically--that is, closer to 90 degrees--the energy would have been violently expended in just a few seconds instead of the more than 30 it took, and there likely would have been more than windows broken and 1200 injured.

It's odd to me that no pieces larger than the size of gravel have yet been found. I imagine it'll be just a matter of time, however, until the object's strewn field is defined, then picked over by an army of scientists and private collectors.
Any more word on the alleged meteorite in Cuba?
Good night folks. Some very hard weeks in my job lay behind me, and it was very good to take a day in your company to recover. Have a nice Sunday!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
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