WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Climate change impact on Nor'easters: An increased storm surge threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:53 PM GMT on February 11, 2013

The historic Nor'easter that buried New England under up to 40" of snow Friday and Saturday was the most intense winter storm event on record for southeastern Maine, and second most for Long Island, Connecticut, eastern Massachusetts, and perhaps Rhode Island, writes wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt. His rating was based upon both snowfall amounts and winds. For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled, whereas for Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, the Blizzard of 1978 remains the top event. His rating took into account snowfall and winds, and took into account historical storms going back over 300 years. So, what impact is climate change having upon these great storms?


Figure 1. Is it a hurricane or an extratropical storm? Satellite image of Winter Storm Nemo taken at 3 pm EST Saturday, February 9, 2013 shows a very hurricane-like storm. The storm had undergone a process known as "occlusion", which trapped a shallow area of warm air near the center. These "warm air seclusions" are not uncommon in intense wintertime extratropical storms, and Nemo was not very hurricane-like in structure, despite the appearance of this satellite image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Climate change impact on Nor'easters: an increased storm surge threat
We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming.


Figure 2. Surf from the infamous blizzard of 1978 pounds the coast of Scituate, Massachusetts on February 9, 1978. The storm brought Boston's highest water level on record. Hurricane Sandy brought a higher storm surge to Boston, but the storm hit when the tide was going out, and thus did not set a record high water mark. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

An increased storm surge threat for Boston
Of the top ten water levels measured in Boston Harbor since 1921 (all due to Nor'easters), all but one of these events occurred during the the second half of that 92-year period. That's due to rising sea levels. The official top ten storm tides since 1921 at the Boston tide gauge, relative to high tide (Mean Higher High Water, MHHW):

1. 4.82' - February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92' - January 2, 1987
3. 3.86' - October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76' - January 28, 1979
5. 3.75' - December 12, 1992
6. 3.70' - December 12, 1959
7. 3.62' - February 2, 1972
8. 3.52' - April 4, 2007
9. 3.51' - May 5, 2005
10. 3.43' - December 12, 2010

Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps. According to an excellent analysis by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central, continued sea level rise in Boston will increase the odds of a 1-in-100 year coastal storm surge flood by a factor of 2.5 by the year 2030. Even given the low end of sea level rise scenarios, and without assuming any changes in storms, 1-in-10-year coastal flooding events in the Northeast could triple by 2100, occurring roughly once every 3 years, simply in response to higher sea levels (Tebaldi et al. 2012). Nemo arrives just days after a report the nonprofit Boston Harbor Alliance warned of the region’s growing vulnerability to such storm surge events. The report found that coastal flooding of 5 feet above the current average high tide--a 1-in-100 year flood--would inundate 6.6 percent of the city of Boston. At 7.5 feet above the current average high tide, more than 30 percent of Boston could be flooded, the study found. Boston has gotten lucky two storms in row now--both Hurricane Sandy (storm surge of 4.57') and Winter Storm Nemo (storm surge of 4.21') brought their peak surge near low tide, so the water level during these storms did not make the top-ten list, even though these were two of the four highest storm surges ever measured in Boston. Mr. Burt comments, "it is a bit unsettling that two of the most significant storms in the past 300 years to strike the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. have occurred within just four months from one another." Rising sea levels are already making coastal living at low elevations an increasingly precarious proposition in the Northeast. If Sandy and Nemo are harbingers of a new era of stronger storms for the Northeast U.S., the double-whammy combination of bigger storm surges riding in on higher sea levels will make abandoning higher-risk portions of the coast a necessity.


Figure 3. Severe beach erosion on Plum Island, MA, observed on February 10, 2013, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo. It was lucky the peak storm surge hit near low tide, or else the coastal damage would have been far more severe. Image credit: Mike Seidel.


Figure 4. Sea level at the Boston tide gauge from 1921 - 2011 shows 2.77 mm/year of rise, or .98 feet (.25 meters) in 91 years. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links and references
My blog post, The future of intense winter storms

My blog post, Heavy snowfall in a warming world

Andrew Freedman of Climate Central's post, Blizzard of 2013 Brings Another Threat: Coastal Flooding

Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has a post, Climate Change and Winter Storm Nemo that has an excellent discussion of how climate change has modified the environment within which storms form, increasing their potential to cause heavy precipitation events.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas, 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 014032

Tom Niziol has an interesting post showing why Connecticut got so much snow from the storm: Northeast snow storm--the pivot point

Lee Grenci discusses how the two winter systems that combined to create the mighty snowstorm didn't really merge, but instead rotated around each other: Looming Snowstorm and the Fujiwhara.

Jeff Masters
Digging Out
Digging Out
Residents begin to dig out after a February Nor'easter dumped 29 inches of snow on Huntington, NY
Cornish, ME
Cornish, ME

Winter Weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Um thanks doc.
Thanks Jeff. This should be an interesting discussion...
That's for the entry Doctor Masters... awesome satellite picture of Nemo..
Thanks Dr. Masters! :-)
@ washingtonian115

yes it's hard for me to believe it too.. but temperatures are cold enough for BOTH storms to dump more snow...


Hey guys! Check out my new blog post! you can check it out on WU, or you can check it out in the link below! It's the same thing. :-) Don't forget to comment!

WunderGirl12

http://www.booksie.com/young_adult/essay/amaria_c apstone/the-redwood-forest/chapter/1
did nemo have an eye???
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

A DEVELOPING LOW MAY IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGING A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
ALSO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
Quoting WunderGirl12:
Hey guys! Check out my new blog post! you can check it out on WU, or you can check it out in the link below! It's the same thing. :-) Don't forget to comment!

WunderGirl12

http://www.booksie.com/young_adult/essay/amaria_c apstone/the-redwood-forest/chapter/1


broken link... at least for me
Thank you Dr. Masters
NO REST FOR THE WEARY...............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1025 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...

.A PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT MUCH OF
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND ESPECIALLY
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL TRANSPORT WARMER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. UNTIL THEN USE
CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING. ALSO KEEP IN MIND WHILE TEMPERATUES CLIMB
JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL YIELD A FROZEN GROUND
UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THEREFORE
SLIPPERY TRAVEL MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


broken link... at least for me


hmm...let me try again, or you can check out my blog post.
Cheers Doc!!!
How much of the sea level rise has isostatic rebound subtracted?



All of it?
http://www.booksie.com/young_adult/essay/amaria_cap stone/the-redwood-forest/nohead/pdf/ver/8

try this trHUrrIXC5MMX. :-) It's a pdf, btw
Quoting LargoFl:


Wunderful weather for me, while i go to Atlanta...
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Wunderful weather for me, while i go to Atlanta...
BE CAREFUL UP THERE..flood advisories in georgia
Thanks, Dr. Masters. Why no mention of tornado that hit Hattiesburg, though? Just wondering. The discussion on this blog is going to be interesting...



Btw the GFS/CMC/UKMET agree on the noreaster.
ECMWF is very weak with it to even not showing it.
GFS has another storm in 10 days.
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Wunderful weather for me, while i go to Atlanta...


oh no...i'll be ready.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Btw the GFS/CMC/UKMET agree on the noreaster.
ECMWF is very weak with it to even not showing it.
GFS has another storm in 10 days.
yesterday NWS was going with the ECMWF model
Thanks Doc,
Quoting LargoFl:
BE CAREFUL UP THERE..flood advisories in georgia


Thanks for the warning! Just picking up a car in gwinnette. :-)


*pardon the spelling*
Quoting WunderGirl12:
http://www.booksie.com/young_adult/essay/amaria_c ap stone/the-redwood-forest/nohead/pdf/ver/8

try this trHUrrIXC5MMX. :-) It's a pdf, btw

Both of them had a space in the URL, try:
Link

That was very eloquently written, you definitely have a future in writing if you keep it up.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


oh no...i'll be ready.


Hahaha! Why would i want to go get you? I got other things to worry about...lol
SW Conn............
Quoting EricSpittle:

Both of them had a space in the URL, try:
Link

That was very eloquently written, you definitely have a future in writing if you keep it up.


ohh yeah...just read it. Awesome work WU Girl
Quoting LargoFl:
SW Conn............


that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Hahaha! Why would i want to go get you? I got other things to worry about...lol


you here might be dangerous.
it's you after all.
Thanks Dr.; The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming.

I had a GW epiphany moment walking the dog yesterday in what is normally the coldest month of the year in North Florida. Assuming that GW is a present fact (whether from a natural Earth cycle or also aggravated by carbon emissions), we are the first generation of humans (as a byproduct of the satellite/science age of the last 60 years)to actually document the large scale changes (jet stream, polar melt, oceanic/atmospheric circulations, global temperature anomalies, etc.) happening on Earth as we cycle into a warming period.

Assuming all the data we will be collecting over the next 100 years will be preserved in the records, people may be looking at this data 1000 years from now (after we have competed this cycle and perhaps gone neutral or into the next ice age) for the warning signs of the "next" warming period.

If humankind is still around 1000 years from now........... :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you here might be dangerous.
it's you after all.


lol. i'll summon a hurricane to suck you up. just joking.
Quoting EricSpittle:

Both of them had a space in the URL, try:
Link

That was very eloquently written, you definitely have a future in writing if you keep it up.


Yes ! it was simply a wonderful piece wundergirl . The community are lucky that you shared it with them.
Quoting EricSpittle:

Both of them had a space in the URL, try:
Link

That was very eloquently written, you definitely have a future in writing if you keep it up.


Thanks! :-)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed
looks like a Christmas post card huh...
new GFS vs last one:

New 12z:

@Jeff - thank you.
Just try to imagine this...Miss/Alabama..right now at 20 degree's....there would be more snow there than the highest amount that fell in the northeast...1 inch of rain about equals 1 foot of snow..they have had many many inches already and days yet to come...
seems to pass over DC this run:





Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
new GFS vs last one:

New 12z:

IF..that last pic proves true..yet another nor'easter headed up there?
Quoting LargoFl:
Just try to imagine this...Miss/Alabama..right now at 20 degree's....there would be more snow there than the highest amount that fell in the northeast...1 inch of rain about equals 1 foot of snow..they have had many many inches already and days yet to come...


1 inch fell because it was warmer.
cold air holds less moisture, and we get our deep moisture from the GOM.
to get deep moisture here, we need to pull up gulf air, but that air is warm, so it wouldnt snow.

Thats why when it snows in AL/GA we max out at 6 inches or so. thats .6" rain, about all we can get from cold air.
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1015 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

ALC001-047-051-085-087-091-101-105-111700-
/O.CON.KBMX.FA.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130211T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
DALLAS AL-ELMORE AL-LOWNDES AL-MACON AL-MARENGO AL-MONTGOMERY AL-
PERRY AL-AUTAUGA AL-
1015 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR
AUTAUGA...PERRY...MONTGOMERY...NORTHEASTERN MARENGO...MACON...
LOWNDES...ELMORE AND DALLAS COUNTIES...

AT 1011 AM CST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST REPORTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS
INDICATED THAT SOME FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ON ASTRO AVENUE IN
CANDLESTICK PARK IN PRATTVILLE...AND ON COUNTY ROAD 29 OFF OF
HIGHWAY 14. JUG FACTORY ROAD IN WETUMPKA WAS ALSO REPORTED TO BE
CLOSED. SOME FLOODING OF STREETS AND ROADWAYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL CONTINUES.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
Thanks Dr. Masters.

NPR did a segment on Friday about rebuilding vs. not rebuilding in one locale after Hurricane Sandy.
Transcript and podcast here: Link
We've seen powerful winter storms like this in the past. You need cold air to mix with warm to produce a storm. Where's the proof that MAN is creating global warming? Can't be proven. The earth has had far greater cataclysmic events in history than can be accounted for by our very recent technological meteorological studies. More people in the way, more people able to report in greater detail than in our not-so-distant past.

In short, I'm sorry Dr. Masters, but I just can't agree with you that man is responsible. Man has a tough enough time just putting together a regular or long-range forecast, much less determining if and how the earth is warming. And two other things can be said: one is censorship on the part of people that disagree with global warming and two is the cause of land mass changes occurring due to melting ice, which is a lot of hogwash.

Perhaps the earth is still recovering from the mini ice-age, prior to which, Greenland was actually green, viable farmland. It isn't today because we may still be recovering from anomalous cold rather than creating anomalous warm climate.

In short, climatology has become pure politics and greed. India and China are doing far more to the environment than we ever did, yet where is all the noise about their activity? The UN can just get off our backs about the way we live.
"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters"..

so Nea..is Dr. Masters a fool?

"Only a fool would make the claim that tomorrow's potentially historic nor'easter will be "caused" by global warming--and only a bigger fool would make the claim that anyone credible has said that. After all, there's a whole world of difference between saying climate change caused a specific weather event and saying climate change made that specific weather event worse. Denialists know that, which is why they desperately work themselves into a lather making lame strawman arguments in the hopes that the lesser-informed won't recognize the difference."
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed
Wonder how the Toad feels about that? :) :P
HE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM BUCHANAN...TO ATLANTA...TO DANIELSVILLE...AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM COLUMBUS...TO MACON...TO WARRENTON.

* UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON

* THROUGH TODAY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY
OR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

* RECENT RAINFALL HAS MADE THE SOIL VERY MOIST ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS.
bombs out west of Massachusetts.
Probably boston would get the most snow from this run, although its a bit far out for the most snow:



Dragod66 would get it though

btw @NWSJacksonMS is tweeting damage photos.
Quoting WunderGirl12:
Hey guys! Check out my new blog post! you can check it out on WU, or you can check it out in the link below! It's the same thing. :-) Don't forget to comment!

WunderGirl12

http://www.booksie.com/young_adult/essay/amaria_c apstone/the-redwood-forest/chapter/1



where are you from? this CA or OR, right?
Quoting LargoFl:
looks like a Christmas post card huh...


TOAD???? I meant road.. The road is plowed here...
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Thanks for the warning! Just picking up a car in gwinnette. :-)


*pardon the spelling*


*sigh*

gwinnett

directly across north atlanta from me, but nowhere near as nice.
Quoting 4waters:



where are you from? this CA or OR, right?


I am from FL, but I have traveled around the country. :-)
wish the Nam proved true,we need rain.............
Quoting EricSpittle:
Wonder how the Toad feels about that? :) :P


lol
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


*sigh*

gwinnett

directly across north atlanta from me.


thank you..:) :D ;-)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
bombs out west of Massachusetts.
Probably boston would get the most snow from this run, although its a bit far out for the most snow:



Dragod66 would get it though

btw @NWSJacksonMS is tweeting damage photos.


Wow, another one?
Quoting EricSpittle:
Wonder how the Toad feels about that? :) :P


I'd rather know how that felt :D
guy's it's road and not toad.
NWS Atlanta ‏@NWSAtlanta
If anyone has any 24 hour rain reports over 3 inches please tweet them or post to our FB page. Thanks! #gawx


I certainly didnt, it all went south.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
guy's it's road and not toad.


we know. we are picking on you. :)
Brownfield, ME here..11:30AM..it is now snowing harder and accumulating faster than during Saturday's Nor'easter..hmmmmmm..if this keeps up we'll have another 24" on top of the 24" we got Friday through Saturday!!!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Btw the GFS/CMC/UKMET agree on the noreaster.
ECMWF is very weak with it to even not showing it.
GFS has another storm in 10 days.

/lurk mode

That image of the tornado scar in the snow is really freaking cool. Just throwing that out there.

lurk mode
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I'd rather know how that felt :D


whys that?
Quoting WunderGirl12:


we know. we are picking on you. :)


...
@NWSJacksonMS We hope to have some preliminary details later this afternoon.
Dr. Masters suggesting Nemo was a Cane or extratropical is very interesting indeed. From image alone it certainly looks to fit one of the two. Pressure was low enough; but was there a closed circulation at the time? Will the NHC classify it as such then as time goes by?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


...


lighten up. :D it's a good day!
Quoting ncstorm:
"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters"..

so Nea..is Dr. Masters a fool?

"Only a fool would make the claim that tomorrow's potentially historic nor'easter will be "caused" by global warming--and only a bigger fool would make the claim that anyone credible has said that. After all, there's a whole world of difference between saying climate change caused a specific weather event and saying climate change made that specific weather event worse. Denialists know that, which is why they desperately work themselves into a lather making lame strawman arguments in the hopes that the lesser-informed won't recognize the difference."


You know, there is a difference between" frequency and intensity" and flat out causation. I'm beginning to think a lot of the misunderstandings here stem purely from semantic understanding or lack there of.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Dr. Masters suggesting Nemo was a Cane or extratropical is very interesting indeed. From image alone it certainly looks to fit one of the two. Pressure was low enough; but was there a closed circulation at the time? Will the NHC classify it as such then as time goes by?


It was a warm seclusion. It looks like a cane, but it is not.
Florida, prepare for a freeze! Models have the o degree line all the way down to Miami by Sunday!!!
Quoting WunderGirl12:


lighten up. :D it's a good day!


:)
That tropical storm in the Indian Ocean

Quoting weatherbro:
Florida, prepare for a freeze! Models have the o degree line all the way down to Miami by Sunday!!!


Ouch!, and I have an 8:30 t-time Sunday morning...
Quoting Tribucanes:
Dr. Masters suggesting Nemo was a Cane or extratropical is very interesting indeed. From image alone it certainly looks to fit one of the two. Pressure was low enough; but was there a closed circulation at the time? Will the NHC classify it as such then as time goes by?

Oh, the circulation was definitely closed, but it was not thermodynamically working like a tropical cyclone. >95% of the storm's energy was baroclinicly forced, which is fundamentally different than the latent heat release involved with a tropical cyclone. The big bomb near Iceland a week or so ago was more closely related to a tropical cyclone than this one was, but even that one is not close.
So the NHC won't name extratropical warm seclusions in the Northern Hemisphere; makes sense, thanks Vortex.
Quoting ncstorm:
"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters"..

so Nea..is Dr. Masters a fool?

"Only a fool would make the claim that tomorrow's potentially historic nor'easter will be "caused" by global warming--and only a bigger fool would make the claim that anyone credible has said that. After all, there's a whole world of difference between saying climate change caused a specific weather event and saying climate change made that specific weather event worse. Denialists know that, which is why they desperately work themselves into a lather making lame strawman arguments in the hopes that the lesser-informed won't recognize the difference."
I'm not sure what you're getting at. Dr. Masters stated that climate change could cause changes in the intensity and frequency of nor'easters; I stated that climate change can make specific weather events (such as nor'easters) worse. I think, then, that most reasonable people would agree that he and I said pretty much the same thing.

Again: climate change won't "cause" nor'easters. No one has said that it will, and anyone claiming otherwise is lying misstating the truth, possibly intentionally.

Causing a thing and making a thing worse are not at all the same. I do so wish people could remember that...
Quoting Tribucanes:
So the NHC won't name extratropical warm seclusions in the Northern Hemisphere; makes sense, thanks Vortex.


It was also still baroclinic.
Thank you 1900
So,we can expect more severe Nor'easters due to climate change? What can we do to prevent this from happening?
Interesting cell near our house this morning.



Then it dropped a few of these:



I could hear the wind blowing through the woods to our south, then a brief shower and it was all over in five minutes.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Dr. Masters suggesting Nemo was a Cane or extratropical is very interesting indeed. From image alone it certainly looks to fit one of the two. Pressure was low enough; but was there a closed circulation at the time? Will the NHC classify it as such then as time goes by?


It did have a closed circulation which is common for a Nor'easter or extratropical storm. It was briefly a very weak shallow asymmetric warm core which isn't unheard of as a low like that hits the gulf stream.
Is there anything that the good Dr. Masters doesn't attribute to climate change?

"For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled...". So was that event related to climate change also?

Give me a break. Some things are just random weather events. Period!
Quoting rjsenterp:
Is there anything that the good Dr. Masters doesn't attribute to climate change?

"For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled...". So was that event related to climate change also?

Give me a break. Some things are just random weather events. Period!


You tell em!
only time the GFS brings any sort of warmth to the SE.
we may have to wait till march for tornado season:
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It was also still baroclinic.


This is really the deciding factor. We've seen them even more warm core but the fact that some energy is being released through baroclinic means keeps it not tropical. This is why Sandy wasn't tropical at landfall..a front got involved.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm not sure what you're getting at. Dr. Masters stated that climate change could cause changes in the intensity and frequency of nor'easters; I stated that climate change can make specific weather events (such as nor'easters) worse. I think, then, that most reasonable people would agree that he and I said pretty much the same thing.

Again: climate change won't "cause" nor'easters. No one has said that it will, and anyone claiming otherwise is lying misstating the truth, possibly intentionally.

Causing a thing and making a thing worse are not at all the same. I do so wish people could remember that...


cant twist this one..I dont understand double talk..and then you wonder why we "denalists" have a hard time understanding..
Quoting Skyepony:


This is really the deciding factor. We've seen them even more warm core but the fact that some energy is being released through baroclinic means keeps it not tropical. This is why Sandy wasn't tropical at landfall..a front got involved.


Sandy was subtropical IMO
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
You beat me to it. The damage suggested high end EF2 IMO. I'm not very knowledgeable with the rating system, though.
The amount of snow the 6z GFS piled up over the NE in the next 12 days was hilarious:

Quoting rjsenterp:
Is there anything that the good Dr. Masters doesn't attribute to climate change?

"For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled...". So was that event related to climate change also?

Give me a break. Some things are just random weather events. Period!
Is there any weather event Dr. Masters has wholly "attributed" to climate change? I read his blog religiously, and I've never seen him--not once in a couple of thousand blog articles--say, "Weather event X was caused by climate change." But it's possible I've missed it; after all, the man is a prolific writer, and has published many hundreds of thousands of words here. Would you mind too awful much pointing out where he ever said that? I'd be very interested in reading it. (As would Dr. Masters, I imagine.)
Quoting overwash12:
So,we can expect more severe Nor'easters due to climate change? What can we do to prevent this from happening?
nothing
we have reached our point of no rtn sometime ago in 2011
Quoting rjsenterp:


"For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled...". So was that event related to climate change also?

Give me a break. Some things are just random weather events. Period!


this is true, AGW or not.
Quoting ncstorm:


cant twist this one..I dont understand double talk..and then you wonder why we "denalists" have a hard time understanding..
how do you not get this? you quoted Nea once, which included him stating a fool would think climate change caused a Nor'easter, and he responded saying exactly the same thing again and you call that double talk.
how about You type what it is you think he's saying? then compare that to the statements he's made.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we have reached our point of no rtn sometime ago in 2011


well then lets throw in the towel!
New GFS gives the SE a dusting.
Just in time for next sunday when I have to run a 5k in 23F weather, when it has been 50-70 for the past month.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
New GFS gives the SE a dusting.
Just in time for next sunday when I have to run a 5k in 23F weather, when it has been 50-70 for the past month.



that calls for nearly 20" for my area... I can't take that
30's and 40's here next monday if this proves true...
Quoting Minnemike:
how do you not get this? you quoted Nea once, which included him stating a fool would think climate change caused a Nor'easter, and he responded saying exactly the same thing again and you call that double talk.
how about You type what it is you think he's saying? then compare that to the statements he's made.



nah, why do I need to do that..I posted what Dr. Masters wrote this morning and then I posted in italics what Nea wrote last week..I'm sure people can read..or is climate change affecting that as well?
7 WunderGirl12: http://www.booksie.com/young_adult/essay/amaria_c apstone/the-redwood-forest/chapter/1 The Redwood Forest
10 trHUrrIXC5MMX: broken [address]... at least for me

Try the link. The WUforum program automatically injects a space (or two) into overly long strings of letters, numbers and characters.
Find and eliminate the space(s) in the address, and it'll work.
the climate is ALWAYS changing regardless of what man does geez...cold to hot back and forth thru the ages..stop already
There are now 109 days and 10 hours until the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season...
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Sandy was subtropical IMO


I heard a rumor that the NHC report for Sandy may come out this week, perhaps even today. It'll be interesting to see how they classify it.

Jeff Masters
Quoting JeffMasters:


I heard a rumor that the NHC report for Sandy may come out this week, perhaps even today. It'll be interesting to see how they classify it.

Jeff Masters
I think I heard Tuesday evening.
Quoting ncstorm:


nah, why do I need to do that..I posted what Dr. Masters wrote this morning and then I posted in italics what Nea wrote last week..I'm sure people can read..or is climate change affecting that as well?


No, you still don't seem to understand the difference in climate change causing changes in "frequency and intensity" of nor'easters and climate changing causing a specific nor'easter or event.
Quoting rjsenterp:
Is there anything that the good Dr. Masters doesn't attribute to climate change?

"For Long Island and Connecticut, the Blizzard of 1888 remains unparalleled...". So was that event related to climate change also?

Give me a break. Some things are just random weather events. Period!
true yes they are
but when yer getting a random event every other day all over the world somethings up unless you are scared and just want to deny it but its not going away in fact there is lots more yet to come

Yep wash, i was right.

6"+ DC snow:
Really cool NWS Raleigh is taking questions on Twitter from now until 12:30 pm. I just asked them a question on Hattiesburg tornado. Should be interesting!
Didn't someone post that the NHC has updated it's best track for Sandy before the TCR is out that it was indeed a major hurricane at landfall in Cuba? And the TCR comes out Tuesday as been posted previously.
Quoting ncstorm:


cant twist this one..I dont understand double talk..and then you wonder why we "denalists" have a hard time understanding..


It appears the crux of the misunderstanding rests on the difference between causation and statistical forcing.

Nea's statement was that claiming causation would be foolish. Dr. Masters did not claim causation. He said that statistical forcing is loading the dice to "roll high" so to speak, making events such as Nemo more likely.

If they still seem like the same thing to you I am happy to elaborate on why they are different and why the difference is important. However, I don't want to waste my time explaining something if you already understand it and you're just pretending not to in order to be argumentative. Hopefully this is just a misunderstanding and you're not TRYING to start a fight with Nea...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Didn't someone post that the NHC has updated it's best track for Sandy before the TCR is out that it was indeed a major hurricane at landfall in Cuba? And the TCR comes out Tuesday as been posted previously.
Yeah, I remembered someone posting that Sandy is officially a Category 3 at landfall in Cuba.
Quoting ncstorm:


nah, why do I need to do that..I posted what Dr. Masters wrote this morning and then I posted in italics what Nea wrote last week..I'm sure people can read..or is climate change affecting that as well?
that was a suggestion to help you understand what he wrote, which you posted in italics and then called 'double talk' when he repeated the exact same point.
indeed, many are reading it and there are even others echoing my very point to you. my suggestion was for you to do privately.. we have all we need here publicly already ;)
33 trHUrrIXC5MMX: that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed

Typical. Never yet met a frog who could hold his liquor.
Quoting MrMixon:


It appears the crux of the misunderstanding rests on the difference between causation and statistical forcing.

Nea's statement was that claiming causation would be foolish. Dr. Masters did not claim causation. He said that statistical forcing is loading the dice to "roll high" so to speak, making events such as Nemo more likely.

If they still seem like the same thing to you I am happy to elaborate on why they are different and why the difference is important. However, I don't want to waste my time explaining something if you already understand it and you're just pretending not to in order to be argumentative. Hopefully this is just a misunderstanding and you're not TRYING to start a fight with Nea...


I'm really not trying to start a fight..I remember that post when he wrote it and then compare to what Dr. Masters wrote this morning.so basically we are looking at climate change in relation to cause and effect which has nothing to do with one another according to Nea..I'm really confused then if thats the case..

"for every effects there is an equal but opposite cause. But for every cause there is not an equal but opposite effect. Basicaly this just means that you can have an effect and figure out what its cause was but you can not have a cause and predict its effect with 100% accuracy"
Here is the Facebook message posted on Sunday by the NOAA NWS about the release on Tuesday with some humor:


NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

Our forecast that the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Sandy would be released on Monday will end up being a tad optimistic. The report is now scheduled for a Tuesday morning release. (Apparently, even after you put them there, one's ducks don't always *stay* in a row.) Tuesday for sure. Really.

now there is a fog advisory for my area.. the freezing rain advisory is cancelled
127. VR46L
Quoting Skyepony:


This is really the deciding factor. We've seen them even more warm core but the fact that some energy is being released through baroclinic means keeps it not tropical. This is why Sandy wasn't tropical at landfall..a front got involved.


But she also had a warm front attached when she was off the Florida Coast . I remember looking at the loops with the show fronts box ticked . My personal opinion was that she was transforming from shortly after the Bahamas . The cold cloud tops were gone, the widening windfield the lack of really deep convection on the sat images .she may have went back to tropical for a while but on the Saturday before she hit I doubt she was truly tropical .
Thanks Dr. Masters...good afternoon fellow bloggers!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The CPC 2/11/13 update has Nino 3.4 at -0.5C and that is the same as last week's update.

Link


From Tropicsweatherpr's ENSO blog
Quoting ncstorm:


I'm really not trying to start a fight..I remember that post when he wrote it and then compare to what Dr. Masters wrote this morning.so basically we are looking at climate change in relation to cause and effect which has nothing to do with one another according to Nea..I'm really confused then if thats the case..

"for every effects there is an equal but opposite cause. But for every cause there is not an equal but opposite effect. Basicaly this just means that you can have an effect and figure out what its cause was but you can not have a cause and predict its effect with 100% accuracy"


You have it wrong. Direct causation would be x (climate change) causes y (Nemo) within a certain confidence level. What Dr. Master's was saying is that x (climate change) gives an increased probability in causing w (more frequent nor'easters) and z (more intense nor'easters) to occur.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Yep wash, i was right.

6"+ DC snow:


Hope this come true i want to see some snow in the south. Time will tell.
Quoting nigel20:


Hi nigel. How is the weather in Jamaica? Here in Puerto Rico we have scattered showers moving thru as a weak front moves thru. Also temperatures are running normal for this time of year (82F is the average for this date) and the lows are between the low 70,s and low 60,s depending on the area.
Quoting Naga5000:


You have it wrong. Direct causation would be x (climate change) causes y (Nemo) within a certain confidence level. What Dr. Master's was saying is that x (climate change) gives an increased probability in causing w (more frequent nor'easters) and z (more intense nor'easters) to occur.


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..
Quoting ncstorm:


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..


What you call double talk, I call statistical definition. Instead of insults, I would suggest studying up on probability and causation and what the differences are.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel. How is the weather in Jamaica? Here in Puerto Rico we have scattered showers moving thru as a weak front moves thru. Also temperatures are running normal for this time of year (82F is the average for this date) and the lows are between the low 70,s and low 60,s depending on the area.

Hey Tropics! Jamaica has been experiencing mostly dry and warm weather through out the winter and we're also on a drought watch.
Quoting ncstorm:


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..
let's see if that holds. you've been given as clear a detailed explanation about this as possible by now, citing each retort you've responded to.
so it is clear that you are willfully choosing to disregard the option to review your accusations. and well, that reminds me of...
Quoting Naga5000:


What you call double talk, I call statistical definition. Instead of insults, I would suggest studying up on probability and causation and what the differences are.


thanks for the suggestion, but I believe I know enough..

x(koolaid) causes y(mind control)within a certain WU blog..

Quoting Minnemike:
let's see if that holds. you've been given as clear a detailed explanation about this as possible by now, citing each retort you've responded to.
so it is clear that you are willfully choosing to disregard the option to review your accusations. and well, that reminds me of...


thanks Mike..always true to your character..
Quoting ncstorm:


thanks for the suggestion, but I believe I know enough..

x(koolaid) causes y(mind control)within a certain WU blog..



Sorry, was just trying to give you a baseline education and advice in statistics so this won't happen in the future. It helps to know what you are talking about before attacking other bloggers. :)


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL PNHDL...FAR SERN AL...AND FAR SWRN GA...

...SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE TRANSLATING ENEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECEDE A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL ADVANCE FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...A BELT OF HIGH MOMENTUM...MID AND UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL EXIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SWD TO THE GULF COAST. MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW-LATITUDE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AIR
STREAM OVER CNTRL TX WHICH WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TODAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY
SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THEN WSWWD TO ALONG THE CNTRL GULF
COAST WILL ADVANCE EWD TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE WRN EXTENSION
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH OVER
DEEP SOUTH TX AND THE FAR NWRN G.O.M. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF
THE SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.

...NERN GULF COAST TODAY...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A SEASONALLY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED
BY PW VALUES OF 1.2-1.4 INCHES. AND WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN WEAK...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING OVER THE FL PNHDL MAY
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THIS GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG PRE-EXISTING
COLD POOLS...AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS OVER FAR SERN
AL...THE FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
SLOWLY RELAX TODAY WITH THE NEWD MIGRATION OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STRONG /50-60 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
PERSIST...POTENTIALLY PROMOTING EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...CNTRL/SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY...

A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF MID-MORNING
FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EWD ACROSS SRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT... LIKELY BEING
FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO
CNTRL/SERN TX VORTICITY MAXIMUM. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST...LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /NAMELY OVER TX/ WHICH WHERE YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...WRN TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE...

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL HASTEN
THE NWWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ABOVE A STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND BENEATH AN EML...CONTRIBUTING TO A
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. WHEN COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN ROCKIES
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH
12/12Z. SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN
THE STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 02/11/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT



SPC AC 111709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST TUE EVENING/NIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE EJECTION OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LIKELY REACHING THE MID-SOUTH BY EARLY
WED. THIS WILL INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE GULF COAST. PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY E OF THE
CYCLONE WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN PARTS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH. TRAILING PORTION WILL ADVANCE EWD AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WRN GULF.

...GULF COAST ...
HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE TRACK/AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. LARGE-SCALE MASS
RESPONSE /ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD/ WILL
OCCUR WITH APPROACH OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY ABUNDANT PRECEDING CONVECTION
SHOULD RETARD THE NWD RETURN OF A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS. IT
APPEARS THE INLAND PENETRATION OF A SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR WILL
PROBABLY BE CONFINED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
HERE...BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THIN/WEAK...BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER
W/SWLYS WOULD FAVOR A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND
ATTENDANT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISKS. ELSEWHERE...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY/MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD YIELD A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 02/11/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1740Z (11:40AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Quoting Skyepony:


This is really the deciding factor. We've seen them even more warm core but the fact that some energy is being released through baroclinic means keeps it not tropical. This is why Sandy wasn't tropical at landfall..a front got involved.


Still not sure I agree with this. A quick look at the GFS analysis just before landfall (sorry for the rushed plot) shows a clear warm core directly above the surface center that has not been absorbed by the front to the west yet. This happens almost immediately after landfall as the center crosses the coast. I think the question should be whether Sandy was somehow subtropical, not whether she wasn't tropical at all, because she most certainly was.

Besides, show me a hurricane coming up the east coast that didn't have baroclinic processes involved with it. It's nearly impossible. That doesn't necessarily mean the system has ceased to be tropical yet.

Dr. Jeff Masters: ...in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies.


If the number of intense Nor'easters has not increased, then it can be inferred that GlobalWarming has not increased the intensity of less-than-intense Nor'easters. Otherwise, some of those less-than-intense would have become intense.
Since the less-than-intense haven't been strengthened, the implication is that GlobalWarming also hasn't strengthened the intense
Quoting hericane96:


Hope this come true i want to see some snow in the south. Time will tell.


Yeah but I want 6" not .5"

at least 2-4"
listen, if you don't understand the difference between causation and influence then you need to learn a lot more before anyone should rightfully listen to your statements on climate and weather phenomena, or your calling out of anybody elses'.

Quoting ncstorm:


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..
The Dixie, Appalachian and Eastern Seaboard states have noticed the re-appearance of a flat subtropical high over Cuba and Florida ahead of each storm advancing from the West, which has resulted in sudden boosts in readings that effectively eliminate short-lived cold spells from the monthly averages.

We are running out of time for the winter season of 2012-2013 do make any kind of turn-about. It is not an impossibility that a lower latitude snowfall threat could emerge. But southwest flow in the upper atmosphere, and increased ridge presence over Cuba and Florida and lack of linkage from tropical forcing in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean says the CFS monthly projection for March (very warm southern and eastern sections) is likely to verify.

Preliminary signs of a warm spring and a normal to below normal tornado season for the nation as a whole and more drought problems central U.S. (SE unclear so far)


The ever unreliable American Global Forecast Model continues to try to bring serious winter to the nation almost coast to coast for an extended period! -- including here in the Southeast. However, its lack of success over the past month make it suspect.

So I suspect the up and down back and forth is more likely into early next month, but the bulk of March turns warmer than normal and spring is here and its on to summer.(and less tornados)
Quoting JeffMasters:


I heard a rumor that the NHC report for Sandy may come out this week, perhaps even today. It'll be interesting to see how they classify it.

Jeff Masters
Nor,icane.?...:)
@NWSJacksonMS: Very prelim survey info: Tornado in the Hattiesburg at least EF-3. Max winds 140mph in Hattiesburg, 145mph in W HBG/Oak Grove area.
Damn, latest GFS has the first and second storms being a swing and a miss for my area. Come on third one :)
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.
"Nea's army"?! You sir (or ma'am) are out of line. The suggestion that our only motivation in responding to you is to blindly defend Nea is baseless and insulting.

This "army", if you insist upon calling it that, is defending science and critical thinking, not a particular blogger.

I'll remember not to waste my time responding to your posts going forward. Very disappointing.

Moving on...

Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.
I was asking the same thing on first page of this discussion. Glad you're okay. We realized after Hattiesburg tornado went through that you're in that city and we got worried. Did your home made it?
This would be fun

60kts at 925mb:


Quite the LLJ at 850:


750mb screaming:


500mb decent:


But typically no warmth at the surface = rain, as the pattern isnt conducive to any real severe wx:


Btw THIS WILL NOT verify anyway

but would have been a nice hodograph, off the charts:

Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.



So you are ok. We were wondering about you.

The true tornado alley got slammed yesterday.
It's an ALL YEAR tornado alley.
Quoting ncstorm:


nah, why do I need to do that..I posted what Dr. Masters wrote this morning and then I posted in italics what Nea wrote last week..I'm sure people can read..or is climate change affecting that as well?


Quoting ncstorm:


I'm really not trying to start a fight..I remember that post when he wrote it and then compare to what Dr. Masters wrote this morning.so basically we are looking at climate change in relation to cause and effect which has nothing to do with one another according to Nea..I'm really confused then if thats the case..

"for every effects there is an equal but opposite cause. But for every cause there is not an equal but opposite effect. Basicaly this just means that you can have an effect and figure out what its cause was but you can not have a cause and predict its effect with 100% accuracy"



Quoting ncstorm:


You say potatoes, I say double talk..I have to get back to work but it was cool going against Nea's army..I think I did alright and no one called me ignorant which is a first..I'll be back later..


Hey ncstorm..
I appreciate you as a blogger here for sure..
That's why I suggest looking back at the responses given to you about this subject..
I didn't count them, but many respected bloggers tried to help you with understanding the differences you have on what Dr. Masters and Nea wrote..
Please take the time to once again read them over again..
I believe that, with a little flexibility of understanding what was written,that you may get that "Ahaaa!!" moment that I have had several times experienced in trying to understand info here at WU..
And believe me,I'm the hard-headed type myself..
Here's to you keeping an open mind.. :)


(PS..And ,as you well know,I'm not part of anyones Army.. :)
Thanks for giving this a read ncstorm..
Peace
MississippiWx, glad to see you're okay, we were worried for you yesterday.

I just finished a quick blog on Gino if anyone's interested, hasn't been much tropical activity to blog on lately!

Link
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.


Good to hear that you came through the Tornado OK.
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Tropics! Jamaica has been experiencing mostly dry and warm weather through out the winter and we're also on a drought watch.


Hopefully,things start to moisten over there very soon.
Quoting stratcat:
Perhaps the earth is still recovering from the mini ice-age...

The earth doesn't just "recover from a mini ice age" because it wants to. The earth's climate changes because the physical forcings of climate cause it to change. If the causes of the little ice age remained, that would continue to be the stable climate regime. And if the solar energy evident at the earth's atmosphere from changes in the earth's orbital positions remained constant, the climate would remain roughly stable.
These natural forcings have been the dominant factor in slower, past climate change. They are not a strong factor in the faster, modern warm period - the strongest factor is the energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Quoting ncstorm:
"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters"..

so Nea..is Dr. Masters a fool?

"Only a fool would make the claim that tomorrow's potentially historic nor'easter will be "caused" by global warming--and only a bigger fool would make the claim that anyone credible has said that. After all, there's a whole world of difference between saying climate change caused a specific weather event and saying climate change made that specific weather event worse. Denialists know that, which is why they desperately work themselves into a lather making lame strawman arguments in the hopes that the lesser-informed won't recognize the difference."

Seems like we're going to have to explain this once again. There is a very fundamental difference between climate change causing one specific event and climate change altering the frequency/intensity of events. This is clear upon reading Dr. Masters' comments and the comments of other persons on this blog.

Perhaps some light reading of the scientific literature on how climate changes can affect extreme events would be in order?
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.

Glad you're okay, but seriously you're mad that national news media covers major population centers more than podunk backwood towns in Mississippi? That seems a bit... whiney.
The only other system of note is 10+ days out, prob wont verify either.

Quoting EricSpittle:

Glad you're okay, but seriously you're mad that national news media covers major population centers more than podunk backwood towns in Mississippi? That seems a bit... whiney.


hattiesburg isnt that tiny...150,000 people metro area.
Does the Boston sea level rise plot take into account subsidence? Boston Harbor is surrounded by areas built up by landfill. This type of structure is very susceptible to subsidence, which looks just like sea level rise, unless both land and sea are indexed to bedrock, or some other securely fixed elevation.
Quoting EricSpittle:

Glad you're okay, but seriously you're mad that national news media covers major population centers more than podunk backwood towns in Mississippi? That seems a bit... whiney.
Hattiesburg is not a town. It's a small city, home to 52,000 people. 100,000+ people live in the metro area surrounding the city.
Quoting TexasAlchemist:
Does the Boston sea level rise plot take into account subsidence? Boston Harbor is surrounded by areas built up by landfill. This type of structure is very susceptible to subsidence, which looks just like sea level rise, unless both land and sea are indexed to bedrock, or some other securely fixed elevation.


That's a very intelligent question TexasAlchemist..
Anyone with a equally intelligent answer would certainly help clear that question up with me also..
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.



Of course, and if the same event happened in the northeast, we'd be hearing about it for months, along with how it could be blamed on GW as well.
Quoting TexasAlchemist:
Does the Boston sea level rise plot take into account subsidence? Boston Harbor is surrounded by areas built up by landfill. This type of structure is very susceptible to subsidence, which looks just like sea level rise, unless both land and sea are indexed to bedrock, or some other securely fixed elevation.


I believe so. Here is a great paper that discusses subsidence in sea level measurement and what is done to account for it in calculations. Link

Edited to say: Since that graph comes from the NOAA, yes subsidence (if any) is accounted for in the calculations.
Quoting TexasAlchemist:
Does the Boston sea level rise plot take into account subsidence? Boston Harbor is surrounded by areas built up by landfill. This type of structure is very susceptible to subsidence, which looks just like sea level rise, unless both land and sea are indexed to bedrock, or some other securely fixed elevation.


You think landslips falling into the water is going to raise the sea level??
151 MississippiWx: Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention.

Likely waiting for some official reports.
The news media is adequately covering the damage to Hattiesburg. HOWEVER, there were at least 7 more tornadoes yesterday (one of which was playing follow-the-leader with the Hattiesburg tornado) about which there has been no media coverage.
Waiting for trustable information, rather than engaging in speculation, seems to me to be de rigeur for a weather blog rather than a sign of any lack of caring.
the last time I'm putting it up...
________________________


For those here who hasn't ... check my storm blog out...

BLIZZARD NEMO


I have lots of pictures and info, in addition, I added new radar, power outages information, Acknowledgments, snow fish and some new pictures... feel free to go to leave a comment
Quoting Jedkins01:



Of course, and if the same event happened in the northeast, we'd be hearing about it for months, along with how it could be blamed on GW as well.


it's more unusual in the northeast though, add that to the news bias.
Quoting ncstorm:


I'm really not trying to start a fight..I remember that post when he wrote it and then compare to what Dr. Masters wrote this morning.so basically we are looking at climate change in relation to cause and effect which has nothing to do with one another according to Nea..I'm really confused then if thats the case..

If you are not trying to start a fight, then you should read up on the topic, figure out your misunderstanding, and let it go.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Typical. My neighborhood and a large portion of my city were wiped out by a tornado yesterday and all Dr. Masters can talk about is how noreasters might be effected by AGW. Can't even warrant a mention. We are used to that crap here in Mississippi though. We were hit harder than anyone by Katrina, but most don't realize it. We recovered then and we will recover now whether any news outlet cares or not. Peace.
Many people that posted here yesterday relayed a lot of information relevant to the severe weather outbreak, especially the Hattiesburg Tornado. The Doc probably would have posted a segment if the weather event was not so well addressed already here by members..jmo
Not much precip for drought areas in the 6-10.



Quoting Naga5000:


I believe so. Here is a great paper that discusses subsidence in sea level measurement and what is done to account for it in calculations. Link


A very pertinent read Naga5000..
Thank you..
Will take me a few to digest it..
So far it seems spot on..
Better precip outlook for drought areas in the 8-14.



Cold retreats from the east half.

Quoting pcola57:


A very pertinent read Naga5000..
Will take me a few to digest it..
So far it seems spot on..


The NOAA is top notch in clearly stating their methodological approach. I think this is one thing that's not really understood in the climate change argument. The signals that would make the data problematic and unreliable have been accounted for. That's why these have made it through the peer review process.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it's more unusual in the northeast though, add that to the news bias.



This is true, but I'm sure you get my point. To be fair, the media can only cover so many stories, so naturally there will be a focus on the more rare, or surprising in the most populated areas, or at least what is promoted as rare, or perceived as rare by the general public.


Quoting pcola57:


That's a very intelligent question TexasAlchemist..
Anyone with a equally intelligent answer would certainly help clear that question up with me also..



How is it an intelligent question? As far as I can make out, he's suggesting that subsiding landfill sites falling into the sea off Boston will raise the sea level there, which is nonsensical.

Quoting yonzabam:



How is it an intelligent question? As far as I can make out, he's suggesting that subsiding landfill sites falling into the sea off Boston will raise the sea level there, which is nonsensical.



All he said was that if the land was subsiding, then the sealevel measurements, and storm measurements, might go up, since the land is lower in height compared to the water.

Whether the sea rose or the land sunk, every piece of land in boston got closer to sea level, and he was just questioning which was more to blame.
The National Weather Service Jackson office is doing a good job posting pictures and comments to their Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherServic e.JacksonMS.gov
Surveys are, of course, still preliminary and ongoing. Looks like from the pictures the EF3 thinking may be coming from the destruction of outer walls of sturdily-constructed brick buildings and some damage to interior walls of residences.

Via WFO Jackson Facebook:
Here is some preliminary survey information from our survey teams. The tornado was at least EF-3. Maximum winds in the West Hattiesburg/Oak Grove area of Lamar County were 145 mph and in the Hattiesburg/Forrest County area 140 mph. Surveys are still ongoing, and more information will be released as it becomes available.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTY TORNADO EVENT
INCLUDING THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG...

.HATTIESBURG TORNADO...

RATING: EF-3 (WEST HATTIESBURG AND HATTIESBURG)
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 145 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: NA MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: NA YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 82

START DATE: FEB 10 2013
START TIME: NA
START LOCATION: NA
START LAT/LON: NA

END DATE: NA
END TIME: NA
END LOCATION: NA
END_LAT/LON: NA

SURVEY_SUMMARY:
PRELIMINARY RESULTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG
ALONG WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST HATTIESBURG AND THE OAK GROVE
AREA INDICATE A TORNADO WITH INTENSITY OF AT LEAST EF3 (145 MPH).
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS DOCUMENTED ACROSS THIS AREA SO FAR. AT
THIS TIME...NO FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. AS FAR AS INJURIES
82 PEOPLE WERE TAKEN TO AREA HOSPITALS...63 IN FORREST COUNTY
AND 19 IN LAMAR COUNTY. THERE ARE LIKELY MANY MORE MINOR INJURIES
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR AT THIS TIME. MORE UPDATES WILL
BE PROVIDED AS TEAMS REPORT BACK.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.


$$

AG/SW/JC/DB/CME
Quoting yonzabam:






He is referring to city structures that were built upon landfill sites and their subsidence ..
Read his post Again at #167..
A very good explanation of what your not understanding can be found in the link posted by Naga5000 at post #171
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


All he said was that if the land was subsiding, then the sealevel measurements, and storm measurements, might go up, since the land is lower in height compared to the water.

Whether the sea rose or the land sunk, every piece of land in boston got closer to sea level, and he was just questioning which was more to blame.


Sea level is measured from the sea bed, so land falling into it would raise the sea bed, creating an apparent (but illusory) decrease in sea level.

Edit: Ah, I think I know what your saying. Greater rates of erosion are not necessarily evidence of sea level rise. Very true. Carry on, then.
interesting note from AccuWeather...

every 10 x 10 square foot of snow equals to 1,300 pounds

stack up 40" (3.3-) that fell in Hamden, CT with 2.5' (Upton, NY) plus 2.1' in Boston plus 3' in Milford, CT plus 2' that fell in New Canaan, CT ..= 10'

this is what you get...

add the area of those downs = 6610 sq miles... times 1,300 lbs per 10x10' to get the weight = over 8.5 million pounds or 4, 295 tons of snow in JUST those cities...

how much the whole snow that fell weighted???
From NWS Jackson Facebook page:




Here is a picture from the Lamar County survey team at the Oak Grove High School football field. Our Lamar County team reports there was clear evidence of the tornado being multi-vortex over a portion of the storm path.
Quoting yonzabam:


Sea level is measured from the sea bed, so land falling into it would raise the sea bed, creating an apparent (but illusory) decrease in sea level.


I don't think he was implying that the seabed was subsiding as well, just the land area of Boston.
I didnt say he was right either.

He was just saying if their gaugue was just measuring the water level, it could be tricked by subsiding land.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTY TORNADO EVENT
INCLUDING THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG...

.HATTIESBURG TORNADO...

RATING: EF-3 (WEST HATTIESBURG AND HATTIESBURG)
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 145 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: NA MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: NA YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 82

START DATE: FEB 10 2013
START TIME: NA
START LOCATION: NA
START LAT/LON: NA

END DATE: NA
END TIME: NA
END LOCATION: NA
END_LAT/LON: NA

SURVEY_SUMMARY:
PRELIMINARY RESULTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG
ALONG WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST HATTIESBURG AND THE OAK GROVE
AREA INDICATE A TORNADO WITH INTENSITY OF AT LEAST EF3 (145 MPH).
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS DOCUMENTED ACROSS THIS AREA SO FAR. AT
THIS TIME...NO FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. AS FAR AS INJURIES
82 PEOPLE WERE TAKEN TO AREA HOSPITALS...63 IN FORREST COUNTY
AND 19 IN LAMAR COUNTY. THERE ARE LIKELY MANY MORE MINOR INJURIES
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR AT THIS TIME. MORE UPDATES WILL
BE PROVIDED AS TEAMS REPORT BACK.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.


$$

AG/SW/JC/DB/CME


DANG!!!! I really feel bad for them... extremely devastating storm
Quoting ScottLincoln:
The National Weather Service Jackson office is doing a good job posting pictures and comments to their Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherServic e.JacksonMS.gov
Surveys are, of course, still preliminary and ongoing. Looks like from the pictures the EF3 thinking may be coming from the destruction of outer walls of sturdily-constructed brick buildings and some damage to interior walls of residences.

Via WFO Jackson Facebook:
Here is some preliminary survey information from our survey teams. The tornado was at least EF-3. Maximum winds in the West Hattiesburg/Oak Grove area of Lamar County were 145 mph and in the Hattiesburg/Forrest County area 140 mph. Surveys are still ongoing, and more information will be released as it becomes available.
Yeah, I'm very impressed how NWS Jackson is using Facebook/Twitter to spread around the information to the public. Other NWS offices is starting to do the same, as well as my local office, NWS Raleigh. NWS Raleigh were doing Questions/Answers thing today and responding to people's questions including mine's. I can see a good future relationship between NWS and social media.
Quoting aspectre:
33 trHUrrIXC5MMX: that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed

Typical. Never yet met a frog who could hold his liquor.
Jeremiah?
@MississippiWx, glad you're okay! I didn't realize you lived there. I find though that more often than not, you find that everything is always reported and blogged in relation to the Northeast. Blessings to your neighborhood for a speedy recovery. Bricks and stone can be replaced, but thankfully at this time no one has lost their lives.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


DANG!!!! I really feel bad for them... extremely devastating storm
Could've been worse. This tornado turned into a monster after leaving Hattiesburg, judging by radar. I'm still waiting to see if there's EF4 damage between Hattiesburg, MS and Millry, AL. This is one serious long tracked tornado.
Please refrain from quoting the whackos....
Make your point without repeating their ignorant drivel.
TWC plans to name winter storm PLATO soon for the Oklahoma snow which could impact the NYC as a nor'easter
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Please refrain from quoting the whackos....
Make your point without repeating their ignorant drivel.

who are you talking about?
202. VR46L
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Please refrain from quoting the whackos....
Make your point without repeating their ignorant drivel.


Here we go with the labelling again ....

Who are you calling a Whacko ?

Just wondering..

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I'm very impressed how NWS Jackson is using Facebook/Twitter to spread around the information to the public. Other NWS offices is starting to do the same, as well as my local office, NWS Raleigh. NWS Raleigh were doing Questions/Answers thing today and responding to people's questions including mine's. I can see a good future relationship between NWS and social media.


The good news is that no fatalities occured. I hope those who were injured have a speedy recovery.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The good news is that no fatalities occured. I hope those who were injured have a speedy recovery.
Me too. I think NWS offices did a great job issuing warnings and SPC issuing watches. Also, a GREAT decision to issue tornado emergency for West Hattiesburg, Hattiesburg, and Petal.
in contrast, the metropolitan area effected by the nor'easter is approximately 30 million people. even ignoring the news bias towards the NE, the number of people effected is pretty huge - 10% of the whole US population was impacted by this storm.

that being said, a destructive tornado like that should still be news.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hattiesburg is not a town. It's a small city, home to 52,000 people. 100,000+ people live in the metro area surrounding the city.


Fair

55°F

13°C

Humidity24%
Wind SpeedN 10 G 21 MPH
Barometer30.15 in (1020.2 mb)
Dewpoint19°F (-7°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 11 Feb 9:53 am PST

Current conditions at

Riverside, Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)

Lat: 33.95139 Lon: -117.45056 Elev: 814ft.

54.9 here... Sitting in the Sun like a Cat would to keep warm. Don't want to turn the heat on. 70.0 inside. Must just be me.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
interesting note from AccuWeather...

every 10 x 10 square foot of snow equals to 1,300 pounds

stack up 40" (3.3-) that fell in Hamden, CT with 2.5' (Upton, NY) plus 2.1' in Boston plus 3' in Milford, CT plus 2' that fell in New Canaan, CT ..= 10'

this is what you get...

add the area of those downs = 6610 sq miles... times 1,300 lbs per 10x10' to get the weight = over 8.5 million pounds or 4, 295 tons of snow in JUST those cities...

how much the whole snow that fell weighted???


Assuming a cubic foot of snow weighs 10 pounds with 43,560 feet per acre and 640 acres in a mile...

10 x 43,560 x 640 = 278,784,000 pounds per square mile for each foot of snow or 139,392 tons per square mile.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I don't think he was implying that the seabed was subsiding as well, just the land area of Boston.
I didnt say he was right either.

He was just saying if their gaugue was just measuring the water level, it could be tricked by subsiding land.


Sea level rise on tide gauges includes the effect of land subsidence, which in the case of Boston, is about 20% - 25% of the total.

Jeff Masters
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Assuming a cubic foot of snow weighs 10 pounds with 43,560 feet per acre and 640 acres in a mile...

10 x 43,560 x 640 = 278,784,000 pounds per square mile for each foot of snow or 139392 tons per square mile.


well you changed numbers there... but it still means there is a huge weight from that snow in roofs, trees and grounds
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well you changed numbers there... but it still means there is a huge weight from that snow in roofs, trees and grounds


I actually lowered the weight to 1000 pounds per 10' x 10' area.
.44" of rain since midnight here..
Looks like plenty more headed my way..
Forecast calling for 2 more days of this here..



Some pop-ups getting going now..

1 KM Visible Satellite for Mississippi

1 KM Radar Mosaic for Mississippi



High dew points and humidity..



Nor'easter was a historical event while Hattiesburg tornado was hashed over greatly yesterday; just don't think the good Dr. has much more to offer on it currently. Wunderground has all the pictures and info that are current on the tornado. Nor'easter killed quite a few and had an enormous financial and personal impact. The site is by no means ignoring the Hattiesburg twister. Dr. Masters should have mentioned the tornado in passing at least; it was a major event with a very high number of injuries and a large financial impact for Hattiesburg and the University. I'm sure it was an unintentional oversight on his part. I'd expect him to comment on the tornado this afternoon or tomorrow in his blog. How close was the tornado to our blog member who lives in Hattiesburg?
CaicosRetiredSailor: Please refrain from quoting the whackos...
202 VR46L: Who are you calling a Whacko?

Reverse psychology -- obviously I'm not being quoted often enough -- "tell folks not to do somethin'..."
Quoting Tribucanes:
Nor'easter was a historical event while Hattiesburg tornado was hashed over greatly yesterday; just don't think the good Dr. has much more to offer on it currently. Wunderground has all the pictures and info that are current on the tornado. Nor'easter killed quite a few and had an enormous financial and personal impact. The site is by no means ignoring the Hattiesburg twister. Dr. Masters should have mentioned the tornado in passing at least; it was a major event with a very high number of injuries and a large financial impact for Hattiesburg and the University. I'm sure it was an unintentional oversight on his part. I'd expect him to comment on the tornado this afternoon or tomorrow in his blog. How close was the tornado to our blog member who lives in Hattiesburg?
He said his neighborhood was "wiped out".
Thanks Blue I just backread and saw that. Just wondering if he was in the twister itself.
Big snows for the Northeast coming up.

Feb 13 - 14
Feb 16 - 17

How much snow do you think the northeast might get? I am guessing 6 inches each. Possible 12 inches in some places.

GFS NAM and GGEM are all on board with these dates.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks Blue I just backread and saw that. Just wondering if he was in the twister itself.
Me too. He got a story to tell, I'm betting...
Was it wet or dry snow? Makes a big difference. Light, fluffy snow may weigh 5 lb per cubic foot and wet snow may weigh up to 12.5 lbs...

Big difference when computing snow weight loads on roofs. But yes, a lot of weight regardless.

Isn't that why they make snow rakes and have high pitched roofs in area that get a lot of snow?
Wow! that is a heck of alot of bake sales to put that football stadium back together. You could see the multiple vorticies in the videos circling each other. Especially the "closeup" one.

Did any of the ski mountains to the south get some of the benefit from the NemoSnow?

Will the deep snow lead to flooding soon or will it just be a helpful wet spring?
220. VR46L
Quoting aspectre:
CaicosRetiredSailor: Please refrain from quoting the whackos...
202 VR46L: Who are you calling a Whacko?

Reverse psychology -- obviously I'm not being quoted often enough -- "tell folks not to do somethin'..."


LOL !!!
Quoting biff4ugo:
Wow! that is a heck of alot of bake sales to put that football stadium back together. You could see the multiple vorticies in the videos circling each other. Especially the "closeup" one.



Which video?
This rainy pattern results in worse flooding every time around.
IF we keep this up with the systems the GFS shows next week and so on, we'll have a problem:



Quoting Dakster:
Was it wet or dry snow? Makes a big difference. Light, fluffy snow may weigh 5 lb per cubic foot and wet snow may weigh up to 12.5 lbs...

Big difference when computing snow weight loads on roofs. But yes, a lot of weight regardless.

Isn't that why they make snow rakes and have high pitched roofs in area that get a lot of snow?


I just picked 10 pounds per foot for an easy calculation and to show that 278 million pound per square mile for just one foot of snow is a heck of a lot more than "over 8.5 million pounds or 4,295 tons of snow in JUST those cities..."
Quoting Bluestorm5:
He said his neighborhood was "wiped out".

Not to belittle the obvious suffering and damage to the Hattiesburg area, but tornado damage thus far appears to be EF3 in a few areas. Likely to be several homes that will need major repairs or reconstruction, however, tornadoes of this magnitude and width do not typically cause damage that most would call "[wiping] out." Tornadoes of EF3 magnitude are also not that uncommon.
It's bad... it always seems worse when you live there, for good reason - it's the place you call home. But it wasn't a mile wide EF4/5, either.
10 more feet till local lakes fill up...will take a lot of rain. Btw these will never flood:


Seems to still be potential for snow later this week for the east. The mid-week snowstorm could probably droop anywhere from a dusting to a few inches from the mid-atlantic through the Northeast depending on precip type this storm also appears to be a quick mover.

Potential for next weekend's storm however seems like it could be the bigger of the two. Latest GFS shows snow up and down the east and as far south as Georgia! Obviously we will need to see more consistency with these runs before any predictions of a legit threat for a big snowstorm, but something to look for.
Quoting stratcat:
We've seen powerful winter storms like this in the past. You need cold air to mix with warm to produce a storm. Where's the proof that MAN is creating global warming?


Non-sequiter. You're confusing weather and climate.

Can't be proven.


Consideing that just about the entire climate science community disagrees with that statement, I find your lack of evidence to the contrary severely lacking. I can download and read their peer-reviewed research. I can go and download the data, and even the models used. While you provide nothing more than an ideological statement.

The earth has had far greater cataclysmic events in history than can be accounted for by our very recent technological meteorological studies.


You keep confusing meteorology (which is the study of weather) and climatology (which is the study of climate). Meterology has nothing to do with paleoclimate studies. Also comparing paleoclimate with modern climate is apples and oranges. Continents were different. Ocean currents were different. Paleoclimate studies give insight into the factors and their impacts of climate change, but you cannot simply compare modern and historical climates without taking into account the differences between those time periods.

More people in the way, more people able to report in greater detail than in our not-so-distant past.


People aren't the only things recording climate conditions. Sediment cores, ice cores, tree rings, etc. are all proxies the keep a record of climate conditions. There's a ton of research regarding proxies and a lot of it can be found with doign a google search. But we both know you won't do that.

In short, I'm sorry Dr. Masters, but I just can't agree with you that man is responsible.


For what? The snowstorm? Dr. M doesn't say anything like that in his blog. He simply states that a warmer climate will end up increasing the liklihood of such events (and he included references at the end to the research that indicates as much).

As far as AGW goes, there is plenty of evidence that humans are the primary factor. In fact, AGW was predicted over a century ago and all the science and data done since then has only further validated the theory.

Man has a tough enough time just putting together a regular or long-range forecast, much less determining if and how the earth is warming.


You really need to learn about the difference between climate and weather. Your arguments really sound silly when you make statments like this.

And two other things can be said: one is censorship on the part of people that disagree with global warming...


This statement right here destroys any credibility of your argument. Your argument is so weak that you use the same conspiracy theory based argument that "Free Energy" snakeoil salesman trying to get suckers to buy into their schemes.

If you want to convince people, try doing some rigorous research and back your results up by solid data. As it stands, your argument wouldn't stand up to a junior high debate team.

and two is the cause of land mass changes occurring due to melting ice, which is a lot of hogwash.


No it isn't. And once again you make a statement with no evidence and in fact is contrary to what current science and data show.

Perhaps the earth is still recovering from the mini ice-age, prior to which, Greenland was actually green, viable farmland.


Greenland hasn't been "green" for thousands and thousands of years. Ice packs thousands of feet thick don't form in a couple hundred years.

It isn't today because we may still be recovering from anomalous cold rather than creating anomalous warm climate.


But it isn't. The historical data show the Earth had been steadily cooling along with a steady decrease in GHG's. As the industrial reveolution started kicking into high gear through the last century this trend reversed in concurrence with the increase of GHG's. Solar output has remained constant. Orbital dynamics remain the same. Therefore, something on our planet has changed to retain more heat. The conclusion is so obvious that even my 7 year old can figure it out dong a simple at-home CO2 experiment.

The Earth doesn't warm up and cool off just because it wants to. It takes planet-wide changes to alter the global climate.

In short, climatology has become pure politics and greed.


Yet another ludicrous stament backed by no facts. The fossil fuel industry mkes orders of magnitude more money. A single quarter of profit from a single oil company could pay for the entire climate science budget 15 to 20 times over. The worth of the green industry is an accounting error to the fossil fuel industry. If scientists wanted to make bank, they'd ditch their integrity and go work for Exxon.

If your looking for money, you're not going to find it being a climate scientist.

India and China are doing far more to the environment than we ever did,


False. Only within the past 30 or 40 years or so have we really started cleaning up our act. And even now we are still one of the largest producers of GHGs. Noise is being made, but ultimately those countries will have to take steps on their own.

All that being said, this does nothing to strengthen your original argument.

Yet where is all the noise about their activity? The UN can just get off our backs about the way we live.


To quote The Princess Bride: "Truly you have a dizzying intellect."
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Not to belittle the obvious suffering and damage to the Hattiesburg area, but tornado damage thus far appears to be EF3 in a few areas. Likely to be several homes that will need major repairs or reconstruction, however, tornadoes of this magnitude and width do not typically cause damage that most would call "[wiping] out." Tornadoes of EF3 magnitude are also not that uncommon.
It's bad... it always seems worse when you live there, for good reason - it's the place you call home. But it wasn't a mile wide EF4/5, either.
Well, it was MississippiWx's wording, not mine. I agree EF3 doesn't "wiped out" a neighborhood. I don't see anything that is "wipped out" in photos, either. However, EF3 is strong enough to damages homes and that's what happened to folks in Hattiesburg.
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
118 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

ALC061-069-112130-
/O.CON.KTAE.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130211T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GENEVA AL-HOUSTON AL-
118 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST FOR
HOUSTON AND GENEVA COUNTIES...

AT 114 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS GENEVA AND HOUSTON
COUNTY HAD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ENDED. HOWEVER...LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT CONTINUED TO REPORT ONGOING FLOODING WITHIN THE WARNED
AREA FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS. MAKE THE SMART CHOICE. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.
do they have parades for this in Miss/alabama too?
Quoting LargoFl:
do they have parades for this in Miss/alabama too?


Actually Mobile was home to Mardi Gra before New Orleans..
Can't back it up right now but give me a few..
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, it was MississippiWX's wording, not mine. I agree EF3 doesn't "wiped out" a neighborhood. I don't see anything that is "wipped out" in photos either.

Wasn't necessarily meant to be criticism toward anyone in particular, just pointing out that in situations like, emotions can take over and make things seem worse. But again, it's understandable for it to seem that way when it's your home.
Here you go Largo..

From Wikipedia..

Link



"Mardi Gras in Mobile, is the annual Carnival celebration in Mobile, Alabama. It is the oldest annual Carnival celebration in the United States, having started in 1703. This was fifteen years before New Orleans was founded, although today their celebrations are much more widely known.[1][2][3] From Mobile being the first capital of French Louisiana (1702), the festival began as a French Catholic tradition. Mardi Gras in Mobile has now evolved into a mainstream multi-week celebration across the spectrum of cultures in Mobile, becoming school holidays for the final Monday and Tuesday (some include Wednesday),regardless of religious affiliation"
Quoting pcola57:


Actually Mobile was home to Mrdi Gra before New orleans..
Can't back it up right now but give me a few..
ok, hope the rain and flooding doesnt stop the festivities there.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Wasn't necessarily meant to be criticism toward anyone in particular, just pointing out that in situations like, emotions can take over and make things seem worse. But again, it's understandable for it to seem that way when it's your home.
Actually I agree. That's what make NWS people so good at their jobs surveying the tornadoes. They don't let emotions take over. The most famous example is so many people claimed that Tuscaloosa tornado was an EF5 prematurely, but NWS decided that there was not enough evidence for EF5 rating for that certain tornado.
Quoting pcola57:
Here you go Largo..

From Wikipedia..

"Mardi Gras in Mobile, is the annual Carnival celebration in Mobile, Alabama. It is the oldest annual Carnival celebration in the United States, having started in 1703. This was fifteen years before New Orleans was founded, although today their celebrations are much more widely known.[1][2][3] From Mobile being the first capital of French Louisiana (1702), the festival began as a French Catholic tradition. Mardi Gras in Mobile has now evolved into a mainstream multi-week celebration across the spectrum of cultures in Mobile, becoming school holidays for the final Monday and Tuesday (some include Wednesday),regardless of religious affiliation"
ok TY..I didnt know that, just learned something new..always thought of NO for this celebration
Breezy here around me but no rain...............
From the Dr's post:

"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters"

I would be interested to see where that conclusion was drawn from, Dr. Masters. I know you usually cite your claims, but you did not do so here, and it's a rather big claim. The statistical analysis going into it would be a good read, I think.
for East central Florida...........DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHTNING
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A LAKE KISSIMMEE
TO MELBOURNE LINE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AND
DRIER AIR TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Not to belittle the obvious suffering and damage to the Hattiesburg area, but tornado damage thus far appears to be EF3 in a few areas. Likely to be several homes that will need major repairs or reconstruction, however, tornadoes of this magnitude and width do not typically cause damage that most would call "[wiping] out." Tornadoes of EF3 magnitude are also not that uncommon.
It's bad... it always seems worse when you live there, for good reason - it's the place you call home. But it wasn't a mile wide EF4/5, either.


Scott, your literal definition of wiping out is different than the way I was stating. I meant wiped as in the way that a lot of the damaged structures will have to be torn down and rebuilt. Plus, the NWS said the tornado was "AT LEAST" EF-3. I've seen spots that could be EF-4. And yes, houses in my neighborhood were wiped out in your definition of the word. Don't lecture me on it until you've seen it with your own eyes.
would be great if this stalls out by me but it wont...
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
____________________________

Forecast from Tomorrow through Wednesday



click image for larger view
Serious damage to a building on campus of Southern Miss.

33 trHUrrIXC5MMX: that's how it looks at mu place except the toad is plowed
aspectre: Typical. Never yet met a frog who could hold his liquor.
196 bluheelrtx: Jeremiah?

I wouldn't want this taken the wrong way... was a good friend of mine.
But I never understood a single word he said after sippin' on his bottle of wine.
Levi, we've had three large Nor'easter storms from 2005-2013, which would lend some credence to what Dr. Masters was saying about increased chances of them. Perhaps the same could be said for the increased chances of hurricanes affecting the NE too. With two monster canes in as many years in the NE, one begins to question whether it's coincidence or climate change driven. I personally wonder if NYC has more than a 5/10 year window before a major hits there.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Scott, your literal definition of wiping out is different than the way I was stating. I meant wiped as in the way that a lot of the damaged structures will have to be torn down and rebuilt. Plus, the NWS said the tornado was "AT LEAST" EF-3. I've seen spots that could be EF-4. And yes, houses in my neighborhood were wiped out in your definition of the word. Don't lecture me on it until you've seen it with your own eyes.
Where exactly are you in Hattiesburg? I haven't seen a photo of EF4 damage, yet. Again, I hope you're okay and that your home is not damaged (assuming not since you're on blog).
Quoting MississippiWx:


Scott, your literal definition of wiping out is different than the way I was stating. I meant wiped as in the way that a lot of the damaged structures will have to be torn down and rebuilt. Plus, the NWS said the tornado was "AT LEAST" EF-3. I've seen spots that could be EF-4. And yes, houses in my neighborhood were wiped out in your definition of the word. Don't lecture me on it until you've seen it with your own eyes.


take pictures
New NYC snowfall forecast for the Wed night/ Thu AM storm
just released
Glad your okay MississippiWx. Were you in the tornado?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
New NYC snowfall forecast for the Wed night/ Thu AM storm
just released
just what they need up there huh..5 or more inches of new snow..although..all this snow will really help the water supplies when it melts and fills the lakes etc
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
____________________________

Forecast from Tomorrow through Wednesday



click image for larger view


I have a hard time believing that it will be all snow for long enough to reach 5 inches of snow in DC.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Levi, we've had three large Nor'easter storms from 2005-2013, which would lend some credence to what Dr. Masters was saying about increased chances of them. Perhaps the same could be said for the increased chances of hurricanes affecting the NE too. With two monster canes in as many years in the NE, one begins to question whether it's coincidence or climate change driven. I personally wonder if NYC has more than a 5/10 year window before a major hits there.


Regarding nor'easters, I would like to see a statistical analysis. Nor'easters happen nearly every winter, and I'm not convinced immediately by hearing that we've had three large storms in eight years.

Regarding hurricanes, it's amazing to me that people are surprised by what has happened in the last couple of years, given that, if anything, the east coast has been "overdue" given the type of pattern we have been in since the 2000s.

In the 1950s, look what happened to the east coast. These are all major hurricanes that affected the east coast during the period 1951-1960. I'm pretty sure that if we were living in 1960, we would be freaking out over that trend. What has happened in recent years pails in comparison to the 1950s so far.


Quoting MississippiWx:


Scott, your literal definition of wiping out is different than the way I was stating. I meant wiped as in the way that a lot of the damaged structures will have to be torn down and rebuilt. Plus, the NWS said the tornado was "AT LEAST" EF-3. I've seen spots that could be EF-4. And yes, houses in my neighborhood were wiped out in your definition of the word. Don't lecture me on it until you've seen it with your own eyes.



While some people over-dramatize severe weather damage, others seem to almost downplay the power of severe weather as well, yet they always have to be reminded that strong tornadoes have destroyed structures that are supposed to withstand winds over 200 mph.

An EF3 isn't just strong enough to cause damage to homes, its strong enough to completely destroy or at least damage heavily enough to leave the structures useless. I would say an EF3 is strong enough to be begin destroying normally built homes and doing substantial damage to reinforced structures.

The only way to avoid severe damage from higher end tornadoes is to either live underground like dwarfs in Lord of the Rings, or build concrete dome structures with ballistics windows. But by then you might as well be living in a city built for nuclear war and terror as well.
257. etxwx
As posted earlier in the
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST MON FEB 11 2013
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...CNTRL/SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY...

A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF MID-MORNING
FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EWD ACROSS SRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT... LIKELY BEING
FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO
CNTRL/SERN TX VORTICITY MAXIMUM. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST...LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /NAMELY OVER TX/ WHICH WHERE YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL


We just has another round of hail here...much more than this morning. Pea size and smaller...brief, intense and accompanied by a quick shower and *poof* it's gone. Weird weather today.
Here's the likely culprit responsible for both the tornadoes and the nor'easter. It's a loop of the polar jet stream, and it's a major factor inducing atmospheric instability and depressions. You can see how it would have dragged a warm, moisture laden depression from the Gulf up into New England.

It could be parked near the Gulf coast for some time. Gulf waters are unusually warm at the moment, so plenty of moisture, and since the air in the jet originates from the Arctic, it's cold and induces strong convection and rotation.

Not a pleasant set up for those living in tornado regions.

Quoting LargoFl:
just what they need up there huh..5 or more inches of new snow..although..all this snow will really help the water supplies when it melts and fills the lakes etc


I know... they call for 6" at my place now (add 21 from Nemo plus 6" or more from this upcoming one)... And the weekend snowstorm or BLIZZARD!...

Quoting TheGreatHodag:


I have a hard time believing that it will be all snow for long enough to reach 5 inches of snow in DC.


Well the 5" go for the immediate area... if you see the white-bluish color calls from 3-6"..so Washington DC could get 3" or more possibly.
Mississippi tornado injures 63, damages homes, buildings

State of emergency declared after tornado rips through state


Read more: http://www.wapt.com/news/central-mississippi/jacks on/Mississippi-tornado-injures-63-damages-homes-bu ildings/-/9156912/18490316/-/1jdtw1z/-/index.html# ixzz2KciEyZKi
So according to Bill Nye both sandy and the noreaster came from Africa/Georgia....not a coincidence.

I live in Africa?
wow!
Safari time!
Quoting LargoFl:
Mississippi tornado injures 63, damages homes, buildings

State of emergency declared after tornado rips through state


Read more: http://www.wapt.com/news/central-mississippi/jacks on/Mississippi-tornado-injures-63-damages-homes-bu ildings/-/9156912/18490316/-/1jdtw1z/-/index.html# ixzz2KciEyZKi


Thank God no deaths!
I hear ya Levi. I'm hoping Masters will answer your questions regarding climate change triggering frequency and intensity of Nor'easters. Any prognostication on another 15+ named storms happening in the Atlantic and Gulf basins again this year?
Still no word from Millry?
Quoting LargoFl:
Mississippi tornado injures 63, damages homes, buildings

State of emergency declared after tornado rips through state


Read more: http://www.wapt.com/news/central-mississippi/jacks on/Mississippi-tornado-injures-63-damages-homes-bu ildings/-/9156912/18490316/-/1jdtw1z/-/index.html# ixzz2KciEyZKi
Injuries had been increased to 82, with many more going unreported.
266. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So according to Bill Nye both sandy and the noreaster came from Africa/Georgia....not a coincidence.

I live in Africa?
wow!
Safari time!



Sandy Did !!

Not sure on the Noreaster . But Sandy was a wave that traveled across the ocean .
Quoting Ameister12:
Still no word from Millry?
alot of power outages in miss/alabama
Quoting Ameister12:
Still no word from Millry?
Not officially. We'll have to wait for storm surveys, but I'm assuming no news is good news.
for the DC area..............DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

A DEVELOPING LOW MAY IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGING A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND
ALSO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not officially. We'll have to wait for storm surveys, but I'm assuming no news is good news.

Yeah. I'm hoping they're just without power.
Those in the East enjoy this next week and a half of active winter weather. MJO forcing will be trying to bring back warmer and milder weather in two weeks time. Long range ensemble means are also beginning to hint at a return to ridging in the area.


Quoting Ameister12:
Still no word from Millry?


I'll assume it did hit some farms there, but nothing to make an extensive report about, just typical track damage.

Same thing happened when the GA tornado moved up to Calhoun, destroyed lots of houses, but everybody was focused on the (less substantial) damage in Adairsville.
Meanwhile up north the tornado was up to 3 times as wide and far more destructive.

It's a matter of where the attention is.
I do not think that the town was "wiped away" or anything like that.
But who knows it may not have been on the ground anyway.
is this close to millry ala?...........CLARKE COUNTY, Ala. (WALA) - A possible twister tore through parts of Clarke County last night leveling at least one mobile home and damaging several other homes.

The Clarke County Sheriffs Office reports six to eight homes have damage; no injuries have been reported.

We're told most of the damage to property occurred on Old Lock road off Highway 69 north of Jackson.

FOX10 News Meteorologist Matt Barrentine will be in Clarke County assessing the damage and he'll have the aftermath tonight on FOX10 News at 5 p.m.
274. bwi
I thought Dr. Masters said the climate change models do NOT predict an increase in the number of east coast US Nor'easters? His post is about surge damage, which will rise as sea levels rise.

I wouldn't be surprised to see higher precip with the NE'ers, though, based on heat contrast and moisture increases. Higher risk of heavier precip when they do occur. More snowmaggedons with 2 feet seems like a good bet.

"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms. As I wrote in my post, The future of intense winter storms, climate models predict that intense winter storms will become more common globally, and will shift closer to the poles. However, in the Atlantic, intense Nor'easters affecting the U.S. are not predicted to increase in number (but several studies predict an increase in intense winter storms for Northwest Europe.) The number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. has not increased in recent decades, according to several studies. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded during the period 1975 - 2005 by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast showed little change (Komar and Allan, 2008). The damage potential from the storm surges associated with Nor'easters and hurricanes in New England is steadily increasing, though, due to global warming. "
Hattiesburg rated EF3 with winds having topped out at 145mph.
Quoting VR46L:



Sandy Did !!

Not sure on the Noreaster . But Sandy was a wave that traveled across the ocean .


He said Sandy and the nor'easter came from the same place.
Sandy came from Africa.

I remember those nor'easter rainy days clearly, so it must be Africa i'm in
274. - Hence increasing my confusion about the entire paragraph. I'm not sure what he's trying to say. He says the models don't predict an increase, but he seems to say in his topic sentence that they are presently increasing. I'm seeking clarity.
Quoting LargoFl:
is this close to millry ala?...........CLARKE COUNTY, Ala. (WALA) - A possible twister tore through parts of Clarke County last night leveling at least one mobile home and damaging several other homes.

The Clarke County Sheriffs Office reports six to eight homes have damage; no injuries have been reported.

We're told most of the damage to property occurred on Old Lock road off Highway 69 north of Jackson.

FOX10 News Meteorologist Matt Barrentine will be in Clarke County assessing the damage and he'll have the aftermath tonight on FOX10 News at 5 p.m.


This is the next County to the West of the County that Millry, Al is in (Washington).
gulf coast folks..storms turning severe..stay safe over there...............SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
220 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

LAC091-105-117-MSC005-113-147-112100-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130211T2100Z/
AMITE MS-WALTHALL MS-ST. HELENA LA-PIKE MS-WASHINGTON LA-
TANGIPAHOA LA-
220 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST
FOR SOUTHERN PIKE...SOUTHERN WALTHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN AMITE
COUNTIES...AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN ST. HELENA PARISHES...

AT 218 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF GILLSBERG...OR 8 MILES SOUTH
OF LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
OSYKA...MCCOMB AIRPORT...MAGNOLIA...MOUNT HERMAN...TYLERTOWN AND
DEXTER
MS Wx, glad to see you're able to post, and physically okay... understand your frustration and range of emotions after such a hit, best wishes to ya bro... I'm still waiting to hear how my relatives near/around the Hattiesburg metro fared. Lucky no deaths yet associated with it.

Wasn't blogging but was surely eyeing those developing cells yesterday on radar, my level of concern for Hattiesburg rose about the time 2 particular cells formed / exited LA into MS on that trajectory...
Take care.
wow look at all this rain.................
Does anyone have a track of the EF-3 Hattisburg Tornado to see how many miles it was alive?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GINO (08-20122013)
22:00 PM RET February 11 2013
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Gino (990 hPa) located at 14.1S 80.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northeast quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.0S 79.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.7S 79.0E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.9S 79.5E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 24.2S 81.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Gino continues to intensify with a curved band pattern on 0.6 to 0.7 wrap and tops of cloud that have cooled. 1543z ASCAT pass confirms current intensity at 40 knots and has allowed to calibrate winds radius. Maximum winds seem to be far away from the center.

Gino is moving south westward on the northwestern edge of the low to mid level ridge. From Thursday, system should begin to recurve southward then south southeastward under the combined effect of the ridge existing in the east and a mid-level through arriving in the southwest.

On this forecast track, conditions are favorable for intensification with a vertical wind shear that becomes weak under the upper level ridge axis. On Wednesday, the building of a strong polar outflow might allow the system to reach its maximum intensity that should be close to the intense tropical stage.

On and after tuesday, beyond 20.0s, sea surface temperatures begin to decrease as a westerly to northwesterly wind-shear should rapidly strengthen. So it is expected that system will quickly weaken by decelerating on a southeastward then eastward track on the northern edge of a rebuilding low level ridge.
Quoting VR46L:



Sandy Did !!

Not sure on the Noreaster . But Sandy was a wave that traveled across the ocean .


Nope. Sandy originated in the Caribbean.
When does the Euro model come out? (looking for information on the midweek storm and the weekend).
Quoting pcola57:
This is Washington Co. Alabama..
Millry is highlighted in red..




This is Clarke Co.,Alabama..
Jackson is highlighted in red..
ok TY..clark county was the only tornado damage report i could find in that state
290. VR46L
Quoting TheGreatHodag:
When does the Euro model come out? (looking for information on the midweek storm and the weekend).


It was out a couple of Hrs ago

Euro weather online
Quoting Levi32:
From the Dr's post:

"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters"

I would be interested to see where that conclusion was drawn from, Dr. Masters. I know you usually cite your claims, but you did not do so here, and it's a rather big claim. The statistical analysis going into it would be a good read, I think.



if one quotes the entire sentence:

"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms."

...it is easy to understand the point that it would not be a surprise to see significant changes (either more or less frequent or intense)

...since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms.

The only way we will know what the changes are, is when we have a significant sample size, given these changing climatic conditions.
looks like a chance of rain by me on the coast wens...
The tornado that struck Hattiesburg, Mississippi yesterday afternoon, as you are probably are, was rated an EF3 with 145 mph winds as of many hours ago. Some of the damage pictures coming out of the region support a higher intensity and perhaps even rating.
ok central florida..thursday is our rain day..hopefully
In reference to my last post...


NWS Raleigh,NC extended discission for the weekend:
...MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL NC AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF. FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PLUMMET WELL BELOW 1300M WITH THE SECOND TROUGH ON SATURDAY....SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH IN THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

More snow would be nice here!
298. VR46L
Quoting yonzabam:


Nope. Sandy originated in the Caribbean.


She became a storm in the Caribbean but she was a wave that traveled and detached from the Moonsoon trough . I tracked every movement of her . As I got an intensely bad feeling about her from day one of the models showing her.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The tornado that struck Hattiesburg, Mississippi yesterday afternoon, as you are probably are, was rated an EF3 with 145 mph winds as of many hours ago. Some of the damage pictures coming out of the region support a higher intensity and perhaps even rating.
Yeah, NWS Jackson still got long way to go surveying this tornado. However, I haven't seen any damage photo that supports EF4 yet and I've been looking at pictures all day long while home sick.
Speaking of that active winter weather pattern. Here's the 6z GFS from Maue's twitter. Yikes




12z GFS has an even stronger storm, though its track is a little different. Euro has a similar wave pattern, but has a less amplified solution, resulting in a weaker storm at the surface. Track on the Euro is also further out to sea.
Quoting Levi32:
274. - Hence increasing my confusion about the entire paragraph. I'm not sure what he's trying to say. He says the models don't predict an increase, but he seems to say in his topic sentence that they are presently increasing. I'm seeking clarity.


As GHG induce global warming proceeds, the Arctic will warm up more than temperate latitudes. Nor'easters depend on the temperature contrast between air masses from both regions for their strength (as I'm sure you're well aware) so, in theory, nor'easters should diminish in intensity and frequency, if that was the only factor involved.

But, it's not the only factor. The polar jet stream is a huge player, and its activity has changed in recent years, probably due to enhanced Arctic warming. Due to the decreased temperature contrast, the polar jet stream has weakened. This has resulted in its meandering loops travelling further south, causing all sorts of mayhem.

The jet stream was a major factor in bringing the warm low up from the GOM to New England. If this kind of activity persists, there could be more, and stronger, nor'easters, despite the reduced temperature contrast.

It's a chaotic world out there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The tornado that struck Hattiesburg, Mississippi yesterday afternoon, as you are probably are, was rated an EF3 with 145 mph winds as of many hours ago. Some of the damage pictures coming out of the region support a higher intensity and perhaps even rating.
This is why a survey crew always goes to the site. There are many factors that go into ratings that cannot be seen in a photograph. In the picture you posted, the structure is leveled, so it suggests a high rating, but the young pine trees show little damage suggest a lower rating.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



if one quotes the entire sentence:

"We should not be surprised to see climate change causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of Nor'easters, since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms."

...it is easy to understand the point that it would not be a surprise to see significant changes (either more or less frequent or intense)

...since the atmosphere is undergoing great changes in its circulation patterns and moisture content that will affect all storms.

The only way we will know what the changes are, is when we have a significant sample size, given these changing climatic conditions.


I submit that the correct version of your last sentence should be:

The only way we will know if there are changes, is when we have a significant sample size, given these changing climatic conditions.

If you can't determine what the changes are due to small sample size, how can you know whether there are changes at all based on the same sample?

Quoting TomTaylor:
Speaking of that active winter weather pattern. Here's the 6z GFS from Maue's twitter. Yikes




12z GFS has an even stronger storm, though its track is a little different. Euro has a similar wave pattern, but has a less amplified solution, resulting in a weaker storm at the surface. Track on the Euro is also further out to sea.
wow those people just cant catch a break,hope the temps arent freezing when that gets up there
Long time out but............
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
249 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
Local weather forecasters still aren't happy about snow chances here.They favor the weekend storm more though..
311. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
Long time out but............


Wow

Moisture throughout the Gulf . that would take some of the dry air out of it .
Quoting ScottLincoln:

If you are not trying to start a fight, then you should read up on the topic, figure out your misunderstanding, and let it go.


I did let it go..about 3 1/2 hours ago..no point in tying up the blog with it or coming back with posts way after the discussion has ended..right?

no misunderstanding on my part though..

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

A FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD...
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL
CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER.

IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE TOWARD FAYETTEVILLE...HARRISON...YELLVILLE AND JASPER.
TWO TO THREE INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST IN
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...HALF INCH TO INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF BOONEVILLE...CLINTON AND BATESVILLE...WITH
SOME SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO TWO INCHES.

DATA HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND
A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE SNOW COULD BEGIN
EVEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST...OR SOMETIME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO COULD ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE NORTH WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE EVENT...AND ROADS WILL TEND TO BE MOSTLY WET. HOWEVER...
WHERE SNOW IS HEAVIER IN THE NORTHWEST...ROADS COULD BECOME
HAZARDOUS.

IN THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOWFLAKES
TOWARD DAWN WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHATEVER SNOW FALLS
WILL MELT QUICKLY.

THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ARKANSANS SHOULD CHECK LATER FORECASTS...
AND MAKE PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

$$

46
its going to be an interesting weather week huh...
From the link in Dr. Masters article above:

"the future of intense winter storms"

"In summary, the best science we have shows that there has been an increase in the number of intense wintertime extratropical storms in the North Pacific and Arctic in recent decades. Increased wave heights have been observed along the coasts of Oregon and Washington during this period, adding confidence to the finding of increased intense storm activity. The evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008).

However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Wintertime top 5% heavy precipitation events (both rain and snow) have increased over the Northeast U.S. in recent decades (Groisman et al., 2004), so Nor'easters have been more of a threat to cause flooding problems and heavy snow events. In all portions of the globe, tracks of extratropical storms have shifted poleward in recent decades, in accordance with global warming theory. ..."
Quoting Tribucanes:
Levi, we've had three large Nor'easter storms from 2005-2013, which would lend some credence to what Dr. Masters was saying about increased chances of them. Perhaps the same could be said for the increased chances of hurricanes affecting the NE too. With two monster canes in as many years in the NE, one begins to question whether it's coincidence or climate change driven. I personally wonder if NYC has more than a 5/10 year window before a major hits there.
We had three major Nor'easters in a shorter time period, 1991-1993. There were three major Nor'easters 71-78 (including the Blizzard of 78). Not sure what can be inferred from such.
some Good News...............NEAR TO ABOVE RAINFALL OBSERVED SINCE LATE DECEMBER CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY ERODE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
Valentine's Day :) and weekend storm

JMA




florida folks,models give us a good chance for rain finally..
Quoting ncstorm:


I did let it go..about 3 1/2 hours ago..no point in tying up the blog with it or coming back with posts way after the discussion has ended..right?

no misunderstanding on my part though..



So you go back to a comment made 2 and a half hours, and 200 comments, ago, and bring it forward, and you wonder why sometimes you are adjudged a troublemaker?
Expert: Global warming boosts storm power

By Doug Fraser
dfraser@capecodonline.com
February 09, 2013 - 2:00 AM

Last year was the 10th-hottest year on record globally. And, eight of the nine warmest years ever have occurred since 2002. So, are this week's nor'easter and Hurricane Sandy payback for turning the Earth into a hothouse?

Yes, said Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., who shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize as the lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's assessment of global warming impacts on climate. "Global warming doesn't cause these storms, but it does add to their intensity," Trenberth said. "Sea temperature is higher, and there is more moisture over the ocean as a result, waiting to be sucked up by the storm."

Ocean temperatures warm winter air, and for every degree Fahrenheit that the temperature increases, there is a 4 percent jump in the amount of water that can be held in the atmosphere, Trenberth explained. That can translate into 10 percent more snow.

While sea temperatures always have some natural variability, the Atlantic Ocean warmed by almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit between 1895 and 2011, and New England waters experienced the hottest summer ever in 2012, more than 11 degrees over the historic average in some spots.

That supplies more fuel for big storms, Trenberth said, which can draw moisture from subtropical areas even as the weather systems are heading up the East Coast. The result is more rain or snow in intense bursts.

...
Quoting Bielle:


So you go back to a comment made 2 and a half hours, and 200 comments, ago, and bring it forward, and you wonder why sometimes you are adjudged a troublemaker?
oh SNAP (and it is a beautiful afternoon here in Mid TN!)
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
318 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE HAS ISSUED
A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN LOUISIANA...

THE AMITE RIVER NEAR DARLINGTON AFFECTING ST. HELENA PARISH

THE AMITE RIVER AT DENHAM SPRINGS AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE AND
LIVINGSTON PARISHES

THE AMITE RIVER AT BAYOU MANCHAC POINT AFFECTING EAST BATON ROUGE
PARISH

THE AMITE RIVER AT PORT VINCENT AFFECTING ASCENSION AND LIVINGSTON
PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.
326. VR46L
Quoting Bielle:


So you go back to a comment made 2 and a half hours, and 200 comments, ago, and bring it forward, and you wonder why sometimes you are adjudged a troublemaker?


OMG

NCSTORM is one of the best weather bloggers here during the season IMO. Posts models taking time out of her day to do it . And great sat images too.

How is that a troublemaker ?


BTW You can call me one too if NCSTORM is considered a troublemaker . I would be proud of that label if she is labelled as such!!
Quoting VR46L:


OMG

NCSTORM is one of the best weather bloggers here during the season IMO. Posts models taking time out of her day to do it . And great sat images too.

How is that a troublemaker ?


BTW You can call me one too if NCSTORM is considered a troublemaker . I would be proud of that label if she is labelled as such!!


Did you miss "sometimes"?
Quoting Bielle:


So you go back to a comment made 2 and a half hours, and 200 comments, ago, and bring it forward, and you wonder why sometimes you are adjudged a troublemaker?


Bielle, I was working..sorry I couldnt respond when he posted it well after the discussion had ended..only people who think I am a troublemaker are people who dont have the same views as I do which I dont think of differing opinions the same way but its okay, I will live..

and so will my grandchildren and their grandchildren contrary to some here believe..

apologies to the blog..
Y'all are acting childish fighting and arguing. Get over it and MOVE ON.
Quoting Bielle:


Did you miss "sometimes"?


Calm down.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
533 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-112300-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
533 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WILL
RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER CRAFT THIS
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEA
FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A MILE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR REGION ON
SATURDAY DRAGGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL
TURN BLUSTERY AND COLDER AFTER THE FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
333. VR46L
Quoting Bielle:


Did you miss "sometimes"?


I dont think she ever is .. She is a straight shooter a honest weather blogger . Who puts alot time and effort in here.
The New York NWS discuss in a detailed way what to expect with the next two events.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY BEFORE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THAT GIVES WAY TO A COASTAL LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN TO THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TWO FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS TIME FRAME/ FIRST THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKING TO OUR S/E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SECOND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COASTAL LOW THIS WEEKEND.

GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN MAINLY AS RAIN WITH A
RELATIVELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TO GET STARTED...HOWEVER WITH WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S...EXPECT RAPID COOLING AS THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS...AND WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW BY EVENING.

12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW - MAINLY
BECAUSE IT NOW HAS A MORE REASONABLE LOW PLACEMENT COMPARED TO ITS
500 AND 700 HPA FEATURES COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF - WHICH HAD ITS
SURFACE LOW TO FAR TO THE S/E COMPARED TO ITS UPPER AIR FEATURES.
THE 12Z NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER BY AROUND 50M WITH THE STRENGTH OF
ITS 500 HPA TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO DO NOT BUY INTO ITS QPF.
THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT ALOFT THE SOLUTIONS AMONG THE VARIOUS
MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...ITS AT THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WHERE THE DIFFERENCES LIE. NOTING THAT MOST SOLUTIONS SEEM TO
BE TENDING TOWARDS ONE LIKE THE 12Z GFS...HAVE USED IT AS THE
GENERAL BASIS FOR THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE KNOWN PROGRESSIVE BIAS TO THE
MODEL...HAVE LINGERED CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER FAR E
ZONES.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAX/MAX GUIDANCE WET BULB TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT - UNDER
CUTTING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES. AS A RESULT - WITH NO WARM LAYER FORECAST
ALOFT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW FORECASTING A GENERAL 3-6 INCH SNOW FALL ACROSS THE TRI-STATE -
WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL CT. THIS
IS SOLIDLY IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE AT WARNING
LEVEL SNOW FALL IS NOT AT 30% - SO WILL NOT BE MENTIONING THIS STORM
IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE OF
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW TO GET STARTED OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES.

MODELS ALL AGREE IN SW FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DIVERGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
APPEARS MOST SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS FAR ENOUGH TO THE N THURSDAY
NIGHT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY...THEN IS CLOSE ENOUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN.

ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DO NOT SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IMPACTING THE AREA - WHILE THE
GFS/CMC-GLOBAL/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARGUE FOR A COASTAL LOW.
FOR NOW HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO CAMPS WITH NO CLEAR SIGNAL WHICH
ONE OF THE TWO COULD BE ULTIMATELY MORE CORRECT. SO A VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD CROSS THE REGION...THEN HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME FOR ANY COASTAL LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA. GIVEN THE FORECAST
TRACK TO THE S/E OF LONG ISLAND AND BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW - CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY P-TYPE
ISSUES - ONLY SNOW AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IT IS TO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON EVEN WHETHER THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY WINTER STORM WE MIGHT HAVE
THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY-MONDAY USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/ECE/HPC
GUIDANCE...BLENDING IN NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RyanMaueRyan Maue 5 h


Minimum Sea-Level Pressure for potential 7-day storm is 950 mb. That's about as deep as it gets in Gulf of Maine Link
322.

There's nothing conclusive about the long-term trend of SSTs off the eastern seaboard.

These are the SSTs from ERSSTv3 for the region 30-45N, 75-65W.



Data Source
Quoting Luisport:
RyanMaueRyan Maue 5 h


Minimum Sea-Level Pressure for potential 7-day storm is 950 mb. That's about as deep as it gets in Gulf of Maine Link
Hey guys is this 950Mb low really possible?
Quoting Levi32:


I submit that the correct version of your last sentence should be:

The only way we will know if there are changes, is when we have a significant sample size, given these changing climatic conditions.

If you can't determine what the changes are due to small sample size, how can you know whether there are changes at all based on the same sample?



Levi, I am not certain as to what you are saying here - "The only way we will know if there are changes, is when we have a significant sample size, given these changing climatic conditions." - I realize that you only changed the wording from "what" to "if", but you said that this is the correct way to word the sentence. So, you start off by stating that we will not know if there are changes and end it by stating that there is changing climatic conditions. How can we observe one without observing the other? A changing climate would lead to a changing in the weather patterns. A long term trend in changing weather patterns would be indicative of a changing climate. Do you speak only in terms of Nor'easters? That would simply be regional and not global and weather and not climate.

"If you can't determine what the changes are due to small sample size, how can you know whether there are changes at all based on the same sample?" - This would be true only if you were looking at regional changes in the weather patterns and not global climate pattern changes. Is this correct, or am I missing something in what you are saying here?

The following images were posted by 1911maker on Dr. Rood's blog:


Source


Source

Research article that supports the second image
7News‏@7News

BREAKING: Mayor Menino: Boston Public Schools closed Tuesday.
Quoting Luisport:
Hey guys is this 950Mb low really possible?

Never seen one quite that deep, but it sounds very plausible to me. There was one back in 2007 (the week after I played at Carnegie actually) which dropped to 959 or so, and that storm was in mid April, so I don't see why not. I think they recorded a 950ish mb pressure about half a century ago in the northeast with a nor'easter, so it's in the realm of possibility.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Never seen one quite that deep, but it sounds very plausible to me. There was one back in 2007 (the week after I played at Carnegie actually) which dropped to 959 or so, and that storm was in mid April, so I don't see why not. I think they recorded a 950ish mb pressure about half a century ago in the northeast with a nor'easter, so it's in the realm of possibility.

Just looked it up; change half a century into a whole century.

Link
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Never seen one quite that deep, but it sounds very plausible to me. There was one back in 2007 (the week after I played at Carnegie actually) which dropped to 959 or so, and that storm was in mid April, so I don't see why not. I think they recorded a 950ish mb pressure about half a century ago in the northeast with a nor'easter, so it's in the realm of possibility.
I hask because GFS it's not the most acurate sourse...
339.

I'm pretty sure it's as obvious as a pink barn that a discussion of nor'easters is regional.
It's clearly everything start with the The Industrial Revolution!!!!!!!!the global warming is humans fault





Quoting Levi32:
339.

I'm pretty sure it's as obvious as a pink barn that a discussion of nor'easters is regional.


LOL! My neighbors offered to repaint my barn for me. ... As long as it wasn't pink .... again.
evening all work day is done
Nice and toasty up there Keep....
Quoting PedleyCA:
Nice and toasty up there Keep....
it was cooling off now and the rain showers are turning to snow showers and all this standing water will refreeze tonight
we got a high of 44.5 at noon now its

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EST Monday 11 February 2013
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.6 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 35.6°F
Dewpoint: 28.6°F
Humidity: 75 %
Wind: WSW 22 gust 30 mph
Quoting Levi32:
322.

There's nothing conclusive about the long-term trend of SSTs off the eastern seaboard.

These are the SSTs from ERSSTv3 for the region 30-45N, 75-65W.

Data Source
Levi, that graphic you showed in #337 says 75-65E, not W; am I reading that wrong, is it mislabeled, or did you inadvertently plot a different swath than you intended?

At any rate, here's an ERSST3b anomaly time series covering the same years as yours (1854-2012) for the area centered around 70W and 40N (off the NE coast of the US):

what?

I'd call the mutlidecadal increase in SSTs shown in this graph statistically significant--and fairly conclusive.

(Source)
Lake effect flurries this evening, tonight and Tuesday morning.

==discussion==
A cold westerly flow off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay this evening
will create conditions favourable for the development of lake effect
flurries. Local snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 cm are possible under
heavier snow bands. Travel conditions could be hazardous with snow
covered roads and visibilities less than 400 metres in some spots for
a brief period of time.

The special weather statement for Grey - Bruce and Parry Sound -
Muskoka regions had been upgraded to a snow squall watch..

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we got a high of 44.5 at noon now its

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EST Monday 11 February 2013
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.6 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 35.6F
Dewpoint: 28.6F
Humidity: 75 %
Wind: WSW 22 gust 30 mph


It is 59.2 at my place...

MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 36 min 20 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
59 F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 27%
Dew Point: 25 F
Wind: 9 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph
Pressure: 30.07 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 8.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

This PWS is a mile East of me and has been reporting nicely as of late.
Never know when these things will be working for long periods of time. This area has very few of them. There are only 2 within the City limits and both are right near this location.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

949 mb w/GFS 18z latest incarnation of major Nor'easter -- but track remains well offshore. +7 days Link
Quoting stormchaser19:
It's clearly everything start with the The Industrial Revolution!!!!!!!!the global warming is humans fault







Correlation doesn't imply causation.
18Z GFS has snow down into C. Fla. WOW!
Good Afternoon! :-)

Check out my webpage! www.booksie.com/Amaria_Capstone
I have posted some of my writings there, so check them out!

WunderGirl12

Quoting Neapolitan:
Levi, that graphic you showed in #337 says 75-65E, not W; am I reading that wrong, is it mislabeled, or did you inadvertently plot a different swath than you intended?

At any rate, here's an ERSST3b anomaly time series covering the same years as yours (1854-2012) for the area centered around 70W and 40N (off the NE coast of the US):

what?

I'd call the mutlidecadal increase in SSTs shown in this graph statistically significant--and fairly conclusive.

(Source)


My plot region was correct. The automatic plot label called it "-75--65E" if you look closely, meaning -75E to -65E.

As far as I can tell, the plots from your page are for one coordinate, whereas mine are an area average over a region, which could explain the difference.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
18Z GFS has snow down into C. Fla. WOW!


Really? When?????? O___O

255 Levi32: Regarding hurricanes, it's amazing to me that people are surprised by what has happened in the last couple of years, given that, if anything, the east coast has been "overdue" given the type of pattern we have been in since the 2000s.
In the 1950s, look what happened to the east coast. These are all major hurricanes that affected the east coast during the period 1951-1960. I'm pretty sure that if we were living in 1960, we would be freaking out over that trend. What has happened in recent years pails in comparison to the 1950s so far.


'Plus'ed your comment for bringing up the point, but I find myself less sanguine about the comparison.
Dr.Emanuel predicted that warmer ocean temperatures would produce more strong hurricanes and stronger hurricanes.
Dr.Grey countered that stronger wind shear would overcome the effect of warmer oceans -- kill some TropicalCyclones-that-woulda-become-hurricanes, and weaken or kill some actual hurricanes -- leading to fewer and weaker hurricanes.

Ike, Gustav, Isaac, and Sandy immediately come to mind as examples of a third alternative:
Whatever doesn't kill you, makes you stranger. (aka GlobalWarming is GlobalWeirding.)
None being examples of major hurricanes at or near CONUS-landfall as defined by the Saffir-SimpsonHurricaneWindScale. All nonetheless maintained MinimumPressures equivalent to major hurricanes one or two categories up the Saffir-SimpsonScale.

Apparently (so far) if windshear prevents a strong hurricane (as defined by central pressure) from stacking vertically (which would produce faster MaximumWinds, and higher Cat.numbers), it instead "stacks" horizontally (producing a FAR broader windfield, and FAR higher storm surges).

So I find myself wondering whether those '50s major hurricanes had IntegratedKineticEnergy numbers comparable to the post-2000 "minor" hurricanes I gave as example.
Seems to me that the present-decade "minor"s caused more damage than those past-decade majors, even after taking inflation and coastal population into account.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Levi, that graphic you showed in #337 says 75-65E, not W; am I reading that wrong, is it mislabeled, or did you inadvertently plot a different swath than you intended?

At any rate, here's an ERSST3b anomaly time series covering the same years as yours (1854-2012) for the area centered around 70W and 40N (off the NE coast of the US):

what?

I'd call the mutlidecadal increase in SSTs shown in this graph statistically significant--and fairly conclusive.

(Source)


I am certain that Levi made a mistake. The Kariakkum Reservoir is at Latitude= 40.2759N, Longitude= 69.815E. - Kairakkum Reservoir

Levi made a simple mistake, unlike my big mistakes.

House = pink
Barn = red

When I mix these up, it is a BIG mistake!
Quoting WunderGirl12:
Good Afternoon! :-)

Check out my webpage! www.booksie.com/Amaria_Capstone
I have posted some of my writings there, so check them out!

WunderGirl12

Best of luck WG12! Writing is a curious blend of talent, perseverance and other stuff.... You failed to mention your fixation with meteorology in your profile section?!
whats up with that?? :)
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Really? When?????? O___O



Late Sat. night, early Sun. morning. Could be an interesting weekend!
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Really? When?????? O___O

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Cold air & weak disturbance behind this monster storm could bring enough moisture to drop snow into Florida panhandle Link
Brad Panovich‏@wxbrad

Hattiesburg, MS tornado just upgraded to EF-4 with winds of 170 mph via NWS Jackson, MS.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
18Z GFS has snow down into C. Fla. WOW!


It will shift, no way that will happen. Maybe a flurry or two, those seem to be more common in frequency over the years.
***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***
The IR absorption spectrum of CO2 is basic 19th century physics. Do you mean to suggest that atmospheric CO2 can increase without causing increased heat retention?


Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Correlation doesn't imply causation.
Meteorologist Tim Buckley
No need to go crazy, BUT -- the weather pattern for this weekend is one that CAN produce some snowflakes in the Cape Fear region. A few of our computer models are trying to hint at a possible coastal low that could throw some amount of snow our way overnight Saturday into Sunday. It's worth noting that some of our reliable computer models are NOT forecasting this, but the idea is there - and stranger things have happened.

Bottom line -- keep it in the back of your mind that things COULD turn a little wintry as cold air plunges south again this weekend. I'll keep you updated throughout the week on if the snow chances actually materialize or not.

Keep calm, and carry on. :)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***

I had a feeling it would be
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Late Sat. night, early Sun. morning. Could be an interesting weekend!


AWESOME!!!!! :D I am SO totally ready for some possible snow! :-)
Quoting JNCali:
Best of luck WG12! Writing is a curious blend of talent, perseverance and other stuff.... You failed to mention your fixation with meteorology in your profile section?!
whats up with that?? :)


fixation...lol. :-) I will have to fix that. :D
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It will shift, no way that will happen. Maybe a flurry or two, those seem to be more common in frequency over the years.


Its been a few years since i have seen any snow. I will welcome it even if its just for a few minutes.
On another note lots of rain in the south right now. My prayers our with the injured in the tornadoes. Hope for a fast recovery.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Correlation doesn't imply causation.


Really?? Correlation?? Its like i'm to take a exam and i not prepare for him, result was a fail the exam......And the real reason of this, was because the exam was difficult? or the truth was that i didnt study
Quoting Doppler22:

I had a feeling it would be


Hi Doppler! :-) I hope everyone tried to stay safe during the tornado.
The latest GFS still has this unusual kink in the jet.
377. MTWX
Info update on the Hattiesburg tornadoes...

Link

Amazes me that there were no fatalities thus far!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***


Maybe now some of you will believe my "wiped out" statement. I tend to keep a pretty level head in times of distress and I knew what I was looking at could easily be EF-4 damage. Just so thankful no one was killed. It's hard to believe no one was killed when you see it in person.
twisterdata..snow map at 126 hours and currently running

Quoting ncstorm:
Meteorologist Tim Buckley
No need to go crazy, BUT -- the weather pattern for this weekend is one that CAN produce some snowflakes in the Cape Fear region. A few of our computer models are trying to hint at a possible coastal low that could throw some amount of snow our way overnight Saturday into Sunday. It's worth noting that some of our reliable computer models are NOT forecasting this, but the idea is there - and stranger things have happened.

Bottom line -- keep it in the back of your mind that things COULD turn a little wintry as cold air plunges south again this weekend. I'll keep you updated throughout the week on if the snow chances actually materialize or not.

Keep calm, and carry on. :)



LOL. We dont want anyone having a freak attack on southern snow. Well at least not yet.
Quoting no1der:
The IR absorption spectrum of CO2 is basic 19th century physics. Do you mean to suggest that atmospheric CO2 can increase without causing increased heat retention?




I just like to be skeptical of any information that is given to me (outside of scientific fact). I understand how CO2 and greenhouse gasses work, I just question how much of an impact humans contribute to global warming.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Maybe now some of you will believe my "wiped out" statement. I tend to keep a pretty level head in times of distress and I knew what I was looking at could easily be EF-4 damage. Just so thankful no one was killed. It's hard to believe no one was killed when you see it in person.


wonder if you will get apologies..

glad you made it out okay..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***
perfectly normal occurence 13 don't worry about a thing
Quoting MississippiWx:


Maybe now some of you will believe my "wiped out" statement. I tend to keep a pretty level head in times of distress and I knew what I was looking at could easily be EF-4 damage. Just so thankful no one was killed. It's hard to believe no one was killed when you see it in person.


No one was killed? What a maricle. :D

*Pardon the spelling, on moblie*
With yesterday's Hattiesburg tornado being upgraded, it's now only the sixth ever F4 or stronger tornado on record in that state for the month of February, and the only one to have taken place there in the first half of the month. (In fact, of the state's 22 February F3s, only five have occurred prior to the middle of the month.)
132 hours
Salivating over here..138 hours..we will see..

Quoting MississippiWx:


Maybe now some of you will believe my "wiped out" statement. I tend to keep a pretty level head in times of distress and I knew what I was looking at could easily be EF-4 damage. Just so thankful no one was killed. It's hard to believe no one was killed when you see it in person.

I was the first one to think about you yesterday. Glad you're okay. ;)

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
perfectly normal occurence 13 don't worry about a thing

I wouldn't say an EF4 tornado in February, in Mississippi of all places, is normal. It's highly unusual in fact.

Quoting ncstorm:
Salivating over here..138 hours..we will see..


This looks like our best shot yet.
Link

live cams ISS above earth
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


I just like to be skeptical of any information that is given to me (outside of scientific fact). I understand how CO2 and greenhouse gasses work, I just question how much of an impact humans contribute to global warming.


Skepticism is good.

The scientific facts are:

- CO2 is (as yet) the most significant *unbuffered* GHG

- atmospheric CO2 is increasing sympathetically with increasing atmospheric and oceanic temperatures, and the increased retained heat is consistent with CO2's IR absorption.

- changes in the isotopic signature of atmospheric CO2 indicate a fossil biological provenance.

- the magnitude of the atmospheric CO2 increase is consistent with known consumption of fossil fuels.

Given these facts, what is the most parsimonious explanation for the observed global temperature increase?
Quoting WunderGirl12:
Good Afternoon! :-)

Check out my webpage! www.booksie.com/Amaria_Capstone
I have posted some of my writings there, so check them out!

WunderGirl12



Congrats on the new books you published..
Well done.. :)
Well I just heard the Hattiesburg Tornado has gotten a preliminary rating of EF4. Not surprising since the thing was an absolute beast!
Snow in da panhandle? Down to da Bayou Grande? I'll believe it when I see it! But I sure do wanna see it!
Long Island NY Mall evacuated due to possibility of roof collapse from snow.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/02/11/smith-have n-mall-evacuated-due-to-significant-leaks/
Quoting Catherdr:
Long Island NY Mall evacuated due to possibility of roof collapse from snow.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/02/11/smith-have n-mall-evacuated-due-to-significant-leaks/
i had leaks on my roof this morning today in south end stair case and the south end midway down the floor

went to the roof and cleared the two roof drains of snow and made a few paths for water to flow most of the snow melted by late afternoon and the leaks had stop and water had drain away

as a matter of fact the snow took a good cut from the brief warmup and rain today
stormchaser19: It's clearly everything start with the The Industrial Revolution!!!!!!!! The global warming is humans' fault
355 WPBHurricane05: Correlation doesn't imply causation.

But if the dice keep coming up snake-eyes, it'd be reckless to assume that they hadn't been loaded.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I was the first one to think about you yesterday. Glad you're okay. ;)


I wouldn't say an EF4 tornado in February, in Mississippi of all places, is normal. It's highly unusual in fact.


This looks like our best shot yet.


Hey at least it wasn't a February EF4 in say, Wisconsin?
398. VR46L
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Snow in da panhandle? Down to da Bayou Grande? I'll believe it when I see it! But I sure do wanna see it!


It is the GFS and its 126 hrs out,

Some interesting and pretty shocking news...Winter Storm Nemo only ranked as a 3 on the 5-point NESIS (Northeast Snow Impact Scale). 16 winter storms in the region have been worse.

Let's not think that takes away the impact of the storm; it was quite major. But it did not rank as high as I thought it would have.
400. MTWX
Video link of the Hattiesburg Tornado.

Link
I'm pretty shocked to see EF4 rating. I must've missed a picture of the damage somewhere... also there is this:

‏@NWSJacksonMS

Storm survey teams preliminarily confirm EF-2 tornado damage in SW Marion County. Seperate tornado track from the one that hit Hattiesburg.


This confirmed that tornado was NOT on the ground the whole time from cell's birth near Tylertown, MS (where the rotation was first seen on radar) to Hattiesburg, MS. This same cell did not lose the rotation until after it hit Millry, AL area pretty hard. This is still likely a long tracked tornado, but not as long as it could've been.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Snow in da panhandle? Down to da Bayou Grande? I'll believe it when I see it! But I sure do wanna see it!
What next? Icebergs in the Mississippi??
Quoting Neapolitan:
Levi, that graphic you showed in #337 says 75-65E, not W; am I reading that wrong, is it mislabeled, or did you inadvertently plot a different swath than you intended?

At any rate, here's an ERSST3b anomaly time series covering the same years as yours (1854-2012) for the area centered around 70W and 40N (off the NE coast of the US):

what?

I'd call the mutlidecadal increase in SSTs shown in this graph statistically significant--and fairly conclusive.

(Source)



Doesn't look very conclusive to me, but if it floats your boat...
More tornadoes have been recently confirmed, an EF1 in Wayne county and an EF0 damage in Perry county: Link

Also, there is a severe thunderstorm near Panama city, FL.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Hey at least it wasn't a February EF4 in say, Wisconsin?


won't see em up there in feb till 2018
Quoting wxchaser97:
More tornadoes have been recently confirmed, an EF1 in Wayne county and an EF0 damage in Perry county: Link

Also, there is a severe thunderstorm near Panama city, FL.



It's strange to see this cell going severe because most other cells are dying around the region.
@WDAMNickOrtego

The NWS now says the tornado was an EF-4 (170mph) around Oak Grove High School and the housing area to the SW of there.


Must've been this building that is rated EF4...

Quoting Ameister12:
Well I just heard the Hattiesburg Tornado has gotten a preliminary rating of EF4. Not surprising since the thing was an absolute beast!
And was a multiple vortex tornado during its formation. Which usually means a large and powerful tornado.
Quoting wxchaser97:
More tornadoes have been recently confirmed, an EF1 in Wayne county and an EF0 damage in Perry county: Link

Also, there is a severe thunderstorm near Panama city, FL.

Little bit of rotation on that storm.
Quoting pcola57:


Congrats on the new books you published..
Well done.. :)


thanks pcola57!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


won't see em up there in feb till 2018


They got a special exemption up there?
12z NOGAPS for next weekend:

414. beell
Dr. Masters,

Ran across a study prepared in 2004 and accepted/published in: Climatic Change
October 2008, Volume 90, Issue 4, pp 453-473
Climate change and coastal flooding in Metro
Boston: impacts and adaptation strategies
Paul Kirshen & Kelly Knee & Matthias Ruth


The main focus of the paper was an evaluation of the economic impacts of climate change and sea level rise. The authors of the study included some information from a 1992 paper initiated by the Massachusetts Port Authority, Planning Department-Potential Effects of Sea Level Rise in Boston Inner Harbor

The Port Authority report attributed 1.5 mm/year or .15 m over the last 100 years to land subsidence. This represents over half of the .25 m rise in 91 years posted in today's blog.

"Sea level at the Boston tide gauge has risen about a foot (.25 meters) since records began in 1921. Most of that rise is due to the expansion of ocean waters due to global warming, plus increased melting from glaciers and icecaps..."

None of the papers made any attempt to refute the accepted science of climate change and sea level rise from thermal expansion and the melting of ice on land as contributing factors.

My question: Is the rate 1.5 mm of subsidence/year in Boston Harbor still considered accurate information?
Just had a story on the News that the Pope is resigning at the end of the month. It is a strange world we live on..... Says he can't handle the duties...
367 TropicalAnalystwx13: ***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***

Hadda feelin'. That too often shown picture of the second-floor porches / first-floor porch-roofs on the Ogletree Alumni House at USM didn't show much, especially considering how intact the rest of the structure remained. BUT...

...the way the tornado twisted the steel beams of OakGroveHighSchool screams "NASTY"

Quoting Jedkins01:



It's strange to see this cell going severe because most other cells are dying around the region.

I didn't even notice it was there until I briefly checked the SPC. New warning for the storm so it is still maintaining strength.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Little bit of rotation on that storm.

Yup, nothing impressive luckily.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Now I can add to my Pope on a Soap Rope collection.


Dude, that's COLD. I am not even Catholic....
This is bazaar whether it happens or not..
Quoting aspectre:
367 TropicalAnalystwx13: ***The Hattiesburg, MS tornado has been upgraded to an EF4***

Hadda feelin'. That too often shown picture of the second-floor porches / first-floor porch-roofs on the Ogletree Alumni House at USM didn't show much, especially considering how intact the rest of the structure remained. BUT...

...the way the tornado twisted the steel beams of OakGroveHighSchool screams "NASTY"

If I've seen that picture earlier, I wouldn't be as shocked to hear the update to EF4 as I was when I heard of it.
Nature is pulling that cruel stunt with me again..I thought sending Sandy my way for my busy weekend in oct was enough..it's back at it again.
Wisconsin has had January tornadoes. January 7, 2008 outbreak sent two tornadoes into SE Wisconsin from Illinois. One in Southeast Walworth County rated and EF3 which cause major damage and and EF1 in NE Kenosha County. Handful of historic EF5's have dotted Wisconsin's history too. Makes for a good historic read. One was in the middle of the night in the early eighties and hit a populated area. They were completely unaware.
424. MTWX
Quoting Bluestorm5:
@WDAMNickOrtego

The NWS now says the tornado was an EF-4 (170mph) around Oak Grove High School and the housing area to the SW of there.


Must've been this building that is rated EF4...



Among others...

In the city of Petal, just northeast of Hattiesburg, a brick-walled Ace Hardware store was completely blown away, leaving nothing but the buildings foundation.

Miami NWS Disco

A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE NORTH...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IN TURN WILL PUSH THE
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER TO COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LATEST 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE
1000-850 MB THICKNESS TO BE AROUND 1310 AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
AROUND 1330 OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...LOOKING
AT THE ENSEMBLE 2 METER MEAN TEMPERATURE MODELS THERE IS A SPREAD
OF 10 DEGREES FROM THE 00Z GFS FORECAST TEMPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. SO
AT THIS TIME WILL BE FOLLOWING THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS AND
LOWS FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE 2 METER MEAN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE IN LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING TO BE IN THE 40S EXCEPT 50S EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. HOWEVER...REMEMBER THAT IT COULD
BE 10 DEGREES COLDER OR WARMER THAN FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS GUIDANCE. SO CONTINUE TO CHECK
THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR THIS WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES.
Hey all, Is anyone from this blog on the cruise ship that is stuck in the GOM and now being taken to mexico with the help of a tug boat?
Quoting hydrus:
The latest GFS still has this unusual kink in the jet.



The GFS does some weird things sometimes...
Cute little supercell.

Quoting wxchaser97:

I didn't even notice it was there until I briefly checked the SPC. New warning for the storm so it is still maintaining strength.


Yup, nothing impressive luckily.


I'm expecting the cell to die out pretty quickly soon, all the rainfall is dissipating before it reaches the Tallahassee despite a big fat 70% prediction for today.

There is some stubborn subsidence still hanging around, the drought here isn't giving up yet....
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hey all, Is anyone from this blog on the cruise ship that is stuck in the GOM and now being taken to mexico with the help of a tug boat?


Here is the news about this.


The Carnival Triumph, a cruise ship owned by Carnival under its Carnival Cruise Lines brand, was adrift 150 miles (241 kilometers) off southern Mexico's Yucatan peninsula on Sunday after a fire that caused no injuries, the company said in a statement.

The engine room fire, which took place in the morning, had been extinguished and the ship was without propulsion, and operating on emergency generator power, the company said.

None of the 3,143 guests nor 1,086 crew were injured, and a tugboat was on its way to drag the vessel to the Mexican port of Progreso,where it was expected to arrive on Wednesday afternoon, Carnival said.

The company said the U.S. Coast Guard had been notified. "Another Carnival ship, the Carnival Elation, is currently on scene and transferring additional food and beverage provisions to the Carnival Triumph," the statement said.

In January last year, the Costa Concordia, a 114,500 tonne luxury cruise ship operated by the Carnival Corp-owned Costa Cruises,capsized and sank off the Tuscan island of Giglio in Italy, killing 32 people.

Last month, Costa Cruises said Italian investigators were looking into the vessel owner's potential responsibility for the shipwreck. The Carnival Triumph set sail from Galveston, Texas, on Thursday, and was due back on Monday Feb. 11.

Carnival said all passengers would receive a refund and "cruise credit equal to the amount paid for this voyage." The ship's next two voyages, scheduled for departure next week, were canceled, the company added.

Link
There is fog over me and around Tallahassee indicating a stable layer of subsidence around here, sadly that tells me most of the activity will continue to dissipate as it approaches.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm expecting the cell to die out pretty quickly soon, all the rainfall is dissipating before it reaches the Tallahassee despite a big fat 70% prediction for today.

There is some stubborn subsidence still hanging around, the drought here isn't giving up yet....

It looks to be dieing right now, rainfall rates are decreasing and the hail is basically gone. The warning was also dropped, no surprise there.

NWS just issued a MCD, limited severe threat with a 5% chance of a watch.
Did you guys check the 18z models of the GFS. It predicts snow in the Central Panhandle of Florida. Yeah, a bit wacky, but impressive.
This image supports a higher rating than the 170 mph the tornado has been given thus far. Not only is the building flattened, but the metal has been twisted.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is the news about this.


The Carnival Triumph, a cruise ship owned by Carnival under its Carnival Cruise Lines brand, was adrift 150 miles (241 kilometers) off southern Mexico's Yucatan peninsula


Thanks I know that, I was asking if anyone from the blog was on that cruise ship.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


RIP, Pauly Fuemana.
aspectre: ...the way the tornado twisted the steel beams of OakGroveHighSchool screams "NASTY"
421 Bluestorm5: If I've seen that picture earlier, I wouldn't be as shocked to hear the update to EF4 as I was when I heard of it.

Twas unsettling. Yesterday while the rest of the media (articles I ran across) were pointing at Ogletree Alumni House as if it were showing the as-bad-as-it-gets (with a few also mentioning "some damage to OakGroveHighSchool" along with a photo of a truck and/or a small amount of debris on its baseball field), I ran across that picture of destruction in the DailyMail, a British tabloid.
Totally a "What the ???" moment.
That supercell produced some wind damage in Panama City.

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather

Winds downed power lines in Panama Beach, Fla., near Highway 79.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Snow in da panhandle? Down to da Bayou Grande? I'll believe it when I see it! But I sure do wanna see it!


Hey P'cola, will you share with me over here in Mobile? lol..
BTW, if this really happens, my daugher is going to go into hysterics! They just moved from MD to Pensacola and she was soooo happy to get away from snow!..ROFL
Quoting Catherdr:
Long Island NY Mall evacuated due to possibility of roof collapse from snow.

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/02/11/smith-have n-mall-evacuated-due-to-significant-leaks/


Smith Haven Mall Evacuated Due To Significant Leaks
414 beell: The Port Authority report attributed 1.5 mm/year or .15 m over the last 100 years to land subsidence. This represents over half of the .25 m rise in 91 years posted in today's blog.

Nope. That subsidence had already been accounted for before arriving at the conclusion that a 0.25metre sea-level rise had taken place.
Go back a few pages, and you'll see Dr.Masters' similar response to a similar question.
Go back a few more, and you'll see a link to NOAA's explanation of the methodology.
It's one of those "spring mornings" here.
You wake up, the road is wet, the sky is sunny, with scattered deep gray clouds around, and it's very humid.

Too bad winter is returning late this week.
Unless I see snowflakes.
446. beell
Quoting aspectre:
414 beell: The Port Authority report attributed 1.5 mm/year or .15 m over the last 100 years to land subsidence. This represents over half of the .25 m rise in 91 years posted in today's blog.

Nope. That subsidence had already been accounted for before arriving at the conclusion that a 0.25metre sea-level rise had taken place.
Go back a few pages, and you'll see Dr.Masters' similar response to a similar question.
Go back a few more, and you'll see a link to NOAA's explanation of the methodology.


I'll take your word for it (at least for now, lol). Thanks.