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Lake Michigan and Lake Huron hit all-time low water levels

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on February 06, 2013

During January 2013, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron fell to their all-time lowest values since record keeping began in 1918, said the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers on Tuesday. The two lakes (which are connected and are hydrologically the same lake) fell to a water level of 576.02'. This is 0.4" below the previous record low of 576.05' set in March 1964. The lakes have dropped 17 inches since January 2012, and are now 29 inches below their long-term average. Lake Superior is about 9" above its all-time low water level, and Lakes Erie and Ontario are just 6" below average (26 - 27" above their all-time lows), so these lakes will not set new low water records in 2013. The latest forecast calls for Lake Superior to drop 2 inches during February, Lake Michigan and Huron to drop 1 inch, Lake Erie to rise 2 inches, and Lake Ontario remain near its current level.


Figure 1. Low water levels at Old Mission Point Lighthouse at Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, during July 2000. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.


Why the record lows?
The record-low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are due, in part, to dredging operations in their outflow channel, the St. Clair River. The dredging, which stopped in the 1960s, is blamed for a long-term 10 - 16" decrease in water levels. The record low water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron in January occurred despite the fact that precipitation over their watershed was 61% above average during the month. However, precipitation over the past 12 months was only 91% of average, and runoff into the lakes depends upon precipitation over longer than a 1-month period. Furthermore, evaporation over these lakes was much higher than average during January, making the net water supplied to the lakes (runoff into the lakes, plus precipitation over the lakes, minus evaporation from the lakes) only 63% of average. What caused the increased evaporation? Well, very warm water temperatures, for one. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures over Lake Michigan are currently about 2.5°F above average, and are about 1°F above average over Lake Huron. These warm water temperatures are the lingering effects of the extraordinary warmth of 2012, which was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. Also increasing the evaporation from the lakes during January was the presence of less ice cover than average, which exposed more open water to the air.


Figure 2. The water level on Lake Huron and Lake Michigan measured during 2012 - 2013 (red line) hit an all-time low during January 2013, beating the previous record set in March 1964. The predicted water levels for February - March call for record lows both months. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Ice cover declining, water temperatures warming, and precipitation increasing in recent decades
The long-term future of Great Lakes water levels is cloudy, since climate change is expected to bring competing effects. A 2011 paper by scientists at NOAA Great Lakes Environemental Research Laboratory found that lake levels could rise or fall, depending upon the climate change scenario used. On the one hand, precipitation has increased by 12% over Michigan during the past century, and is expected to increase even more in the coming decades. This would tend to increase lake levels. However, lake water temperatures are predicted to increase and ice cover decrease, which would heighten evaporation rates. This would tend to lower lake levels. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lakes increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie (which is shallow and loses and gains heat relatively quickly) showed almost no warming. The Army Corps of Engineers is also considering adding speed bumps to the bottom of the St. Clair River to slow down drainage of Lake Huron, which would act to increase water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan.


Figure 3. Average yearly precipitation over the state of Michigan increased by about 12% per century since 1895, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Jeff Masters

Drought Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Who thinks of record snowfall for certain places from Nemo?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Just posted a blog, Check it out if you're Interested.

2013 Hurricane Season ; Another Active Season to come?
All winter weather alerts updated for the NYC/Boston area... no changes in snowfall forecast.

Although why they call for blizzard watch over there in Boston (winds gusting to 55 mph) while here northeast of NYC we are under a winter storm watch for for stronger wind gusts of 60 mph...??

I know there is much more depth to that..
Facebook comment on TWC about the upcoming storm...

They're saying 1-3 inches for NYC.... I looked at some of the updated models.... it's going to be a lot more than that. Expect a foot. If you are in a norther suburb, expect 16 inches. Anywhere in Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island: At least 24 inches. These forecasters are afraid to put out these ridiculous forecasts but it WILL happen. Please be prepared.
Looks like Dover, DE is dodging the bullet with too warm temps....
GFS LONG RUN... could be looking at a similar scenario!!!

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Who thinks of record snowfall for certain places from Nemo?
The irony that the name Nemo don`t provoke any scary feeling and would probably be the most outstanding winterstorm of the season.btw tomorrow is the big game pbs vrs cbs hope my school win.
508. 900MB
I'm sticking with Euro! Didn't fail me w Sandy. Signed, NYC snowstorm of 12"-15"+
Quoting Grothar:


Did you get new eye glasses? Those images are pretty small.
Quoting 900MB:
I'm sticking with Euro! Didn't fail me w Sandy. Signed, NYC snowstorm of 12"-15"+


well then... if you go for that I go for over 20" from Nemo... northeast of NYC
Quoting 900MB:
I'm sticking with Euro! Didn't fail me w Sandy. Signed, NYC snowstorm of 12"-15"+



much more than this
Look like GFS is showing way less snow on this 0z run, if I'm reading it correctly.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
GFS LONG RUN... could be looking at a similar scenario!!!


There is no high pressure over eastern Canada on that model run. That high is very important to the strongest nor'easters because it supplies the storm with cold air. Without it, the air won't be cold enough to support a blockbuster storm.
Did anyone notice there is a Hurricane force wind watch for the waters outside Nantucket, MA???

This storm could produce hurricane winds there...wow
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Just posted a blog, Check it out if you're Interested.

2013 Hurricane Season ; Another Active Season to come?



i think evere one is talking more about the snow storm comeing up and not about hurricane season right now so i would try agin later
Quoting allancalderini:
The irony that the name Nemo don`t provoke any scary feeling and would probably be the most outstanding winterstorm of the season.btw tomorrow is the big game pbs vrs cbs hope my school win.


Sandy sounded innocuous too. We saw how that went...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Look like GFS is showing way less snow on this 0z run, if I'm reading it correctly.


Im seeing that too
Nemo is probably going to turn out to be another hyped up storm early on by the computers and end up actually being a big dud. Please, 2ft. Get real! I've seen this happen so many times in New England, it isn't even funny. I'll believe it when I see it.
The NSIDC just released a new website yesterday on February 5, 2013. Similar to their daily Arctic sea ice extent update, this one is about the Greenland ice sheet.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center today launched a Web site that offers the latest satellite data and periodic scientific analysis on surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a significant climate indicator watched by climate scientists worldwide. The site presents images of the widespread melt on Greenland during 2012 and scientific commentary on the year's record-breaking melt extent.

Read more of the press release.

The actual website.

An article on the main page talks about the intense surface melting in July 2012...

An intense Greenland melt season: 2012 in review
Greenland's surface melting in 2012 was intense, far in excess of any earlier year in the satellite record since 1979. In July 2012, a very unusual weather event occurred. For a few days, 97% of the entire ice sheet indicated surface melting. This event prompted NSIDC to build this Web site, with the help of two prominent experts on Greenland surface melting.

Warm conditions in 2012 were caused by a persistent high pressure pattern that lasted much of the summer. Since September, temperatures have remained warmer than average, but dropped well below freezing as autumn and winter arrived. We review the year's events, and introduce some general characteristics of the Greenland ice sheet.

Continued on the link above...



XX/XX/XX
Quoting SteveDa1:
The NSIDC just released a new website yesterday on February 5, 2013. Similar to their daily Arctic sea ice extent update, this one is about the Greenland ice sheet.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center today launched a Web site that offers the latest satellite data and periodic scientific analysis on surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a significant climate indicator watched by climate scientists worldwide. The site presents images of the widespread melt on Greenland during 2012 and scientific commentary on the year's record-breaking melt extent.

Read more of the press release.

The actual website.

An article on the main page talks about the intense surface melting in July 2012...

An intense Greenland melt season: 2012 in review
Greenland%u2019s surface melting in 2012 was intense, far in excess of any earlier year in the satellite record since 1979. In July 2012, a very unusual weather event occurred. For a few days, 97% of the entire ice sheet indicated surface melting. This event prompted NSIDC to build this Web site, with the help of two prominent experts on Greenland surface melting.

Warm conditions in 2012 were caused by a persistent high pressure pattern that lasted much of the summer. Since September, temperatures have remained warmer than average, but dropped well below freezing as autumn and winter arrived. We review the year's events, and introduce some general characteristics of the Greenland ice sheet.

Continued on the link above...



the problem with greenland is not the ice melt but the water which seeps down from the surface on the melted ice cap creating possibilty vast caverns of melted ice water thereby adding to an increse flow and lifting of the ice therefore causing the event to go so much faster and faster than previous seasons before

we have to wait to see if it occurrs once more in the summer of 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the problem with greenland is not the ice melt but the water which seeps down from the surface on the melted ice cap creating possibilty vast caverns of melted ice water thereby adding to an increse flow and lifting of the ice therefore causing the event to go so much faster and faster than previous seasons before

we have to wait to see if it occurrs once more in the summer of 2013


Indeed, KEEPEROFTHEGATE.

I see no reason to think it won't happen again and that it won't continue melting at an exponential rate.
Quoting weatherrx2012:
Nemo is probably going to turn out to be another hyped up storm early on by the computers and end up actually being a big dud. Please, 2ft. Get real! I've seen this happen so many times in New England, it isn't even funny. I'll believe it when I see it.


Model consensus counts for something, though. I don't know about your past duds, but the models (especially the euro) has been fairly accurate this past year or so.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Model consensus counts for something, though. I don't know about your past duds, but the models (especially the euro) has been fairly accurate this past year or so.


Astro...you're up...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sandy sounded innocuous too. We saw how that went...
Touche.
Quoting allancalderini:
Touche.
kori is always like that he is harmless
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Astro...you're up...


lot of homework, physics test on friday, just got done with the pre-test.
Quoting Astrometeor:


lot of homework, physics test on friday, just got done with the pre-test.


My experience with physics, I started out hating the class because the problem solving was far different than what I was used to, my first test I got an F but I focused hard for the rest of the semester, ended up loving the class and finished with an A average.

Of course most of my major coursework involves calculus and physics, so I was feeling extra horrified of my bad grade to start with.
Pacific Locked in 'La Nada' Limbo02.06.13
 
The latest image of sea surface heights in the Pacific Ocean from NASA's Jason-2 satellite shows that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is now in its 10th month of being locked in what some call a neutral, or "La Nada" state. Image credit: NASA-JPL/Caltech/Ocean Surface Topography Team

Sea-surface height data from NASA's Jason-2 satellite show that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is still locked in what some call a neutral, or 'La Nada' state. This condition follows two years of strong, cool-water La Niña events.

A new image, based on the average of 10 days of data centered on Jan. 26, 2013, shows near-normal conditions (depicted in green) across the equatorial Pacific. The image is available at:

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/images/latestdata/ja son/2013/20130126P.jpg.
Quoting etxwx:
Bacteria Found Deep Under Ice, Scientists Say, Opening New Antarctic World

By JAMES GORMAN - NYT - February 6, 2013
Excerpt: For the first time, scientists report, they have found bacteria living in the cold and dark deep under the Antarctic ice, a discovery that might advance knowledge of how life could survive on other planets or moons and that offers the first glimpse of a vast ecosystem of microscopic life in underground lakes in Antarctica.

Complete article here.
Interesting indeed, but not unexpected really. Life is everywhere on the earth.

I wonder how surprised they'll be, whenever the bacteria they're studying, suddenly replace them.

The bacteria are just biding their time, waiting for the thaw.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Back from my walk, This is what my local looks like. Stunning


I'll go for a swim later, sun is to hot right now.

Oh and this is my backyard, lol

Water looks nice, hope it's warm too. Water here is in the 50s
Quoting TomTaylor:
Water looks nice, hope it's warm too. Water here is in the 50s

Water is a bit cool but a nice and refreshing 70F.
@TropicalTidbits Levi Cowan
Recon plane did a loop around the Gulf of Mexico today, dropping dropsondes ahead of the coming winter storm.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Interesting indeed, but not unexpected really. Life is everywhere on the earth.

I wonder how surprised they'll be, whenever the bacteria they're studying, suddenly replace them.

The bacteria are just biding their time, waiting for the thaw.


ha! little aliens eh? :)

@StephanieAbrams Stephanie Abrams
Will we crack the top 5 biggest snowstorms in Boston? Very possible

Good Morning Folks! Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..have a great day everyone
Looks like the folks north of me have been getting freezing rain/sleet most of the night ..

My current conditions :

Updated: 11 min 24 sec ago
Overcast
35 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 30 °F
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 32 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 30.04 in (Falling)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
....here is the low that is going to be the nor'easter that adds to new englands woes tomorrow and saturday..
Nothing for us,warm and hopefully a sprinkle or two..
south florida also,warm and probably dry....
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A nice 57 degrees with a high of 73 expected. And no rain for three days!

Eggs, bacon, sausage and biscuits and orange juice on the sideboard.
low as a nor'easter, and the cold low meet in northeast..boom..
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...

CTZ010>012-072100-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL
RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRINGING DOWN SOME TREE
LIMBS... AND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
554. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
low as a nor'easter, and the cold low meet in northeast..boom..


Hey It might even break the Tampa Shield and you might get some rain!!


Morning Folks!!
my guess is today is the day folks in the northeast gather their supplies, check on the elderly, make sure they have what they need, meds,food etc..this may be a multiple day blizzard, roads closed etc..and with the nor'easter coming also..maybe high winds.tree limbs down,power outages etc..not going to be one of those no wind, beautiful quiet snow storms huh...stay safe folks..
Quoting VR46L:


Hey It might even break the Tampa Shield and you might get some rain!!


Morning Folks!!
good morning..yes i am hoping we do get some rain here..doesnt look too promising.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

CTZ002>004-071730-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T1200Z-130209T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T2100Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC
425 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WATCH...IN EFFECT
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS UPGRADED A WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.

&&

$$
in the 1978 blizzard..the two lows joined and boom the blizzard happened...it sure looks like much the same set-up now huh..the two lows meeting and boom..2 feet of snow with high winds..


Winter storm warning
Snowfall warning for
City of Toronto

Significant snowfall of 15 to 25 cm tonight and Friday.

A low will track northeast from Texas to Illinois today then track just south of Lake Erie on Friday.

Snow associated with a trough ahead of this system will start spreading into Southern Ontario from Michigan and Lake Huron today with a couple cm of snow possible by this evening in a swath of regions extending from Lake Huron to Western Lake Ontario.

This low will intensify into a winter storm as it approaches Southern Ontario, with an expanding area of heavy snow expected to move into most of Southern Ontario this evening and parts of Eastern Ontario overnight. The heaviest snow will occur during the Friday morning rush hour along the highway 401 corridor from London to the Greater Toronto area and through the Golden Horseshoe. The snow, heavy at times is expected to continue well into Friday as the strong system passes just south of the Great Lakes. Brisk northeasterly winds will also result in local blowing snow in many areas tonight and Friday.

Many parts of Southern and Eastern Ontario may receive 15 cm to 25 cm of snow from this storm before it ends Friday night. Total snowfall amounts will be lower over areas to the north of Lake Erie due to warmer temperatures giving rain or wet snow at times. The winter storm watch has thus been ended for these regions.

Areas along the western shore of Lake Ontario may receive near 25 cm of snow due to enhancement in the cold easterly flow off of Lake Ontario. Additionally these winds will result in blowing snow which may produce prolonged periods of reduced visibilities. A winter storm warning is thus in effect for these regions.

Travelling conditions will deteriorate and become hazardous in the snow and blowing snow tonight and Friday. There may be a significant impact on the commute to work on Friday morning and possibly Friday afternoon in heavy snow and blowing snow.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TONIGHT. A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED ON FRIDAY FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SANDY POINT...INCLUDING THE INLETS...THE
TIDAL PATUXENT RIVER...AND THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER. GALE
WARNINGS LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT.

ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
MINOR INUNDATION OF SENSITIVE LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

STRONG...GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH... WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
NYC area...URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...POWERFUL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...

CTZ005-072100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
627 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND STRONG
WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 16 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRINGING DOWN
SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A nice 57 degrees with a high of 73 expected. And no rain for three days!

Eggs, bacon, sausage and biscuits and orange juice on the sideboard.

Good Evening. I'll add some black pudding and some haggis with a side of French toast to the side board. I could also put a nice big 500grm streak and beef and garlic sausages with fried onions, that's what I had for dinner tonight.
WINTER STORM WARNING/BLIZZARD WATCH
HIGH WIND ADV/HEAVY SNOWFALL WARNING

XX/XX/XXL
Quoting LargoFl:
in the 1978 blizzard..the two lows joined and boom the blizzard happened...it sure looks like much the same set-up now huh..the two lows meeting and boom..2 feet of snow with high winds..


The '78 blizzard was something else. Yesterday morning I posted a personal funny story from it. But people were caught without medicine when it took so long to dig out. I had friends who used their snowmobiles and worked with authorities to take medicine to people who had ran out. It was a dangerous storm and it looks like this one will be as well. People up there tend to treat blizzards like we do hurricanes in the south. (I grew up in the Catskills.) Wishing everyone involved with this storm stays safe. If friends or family post pictures, I'll repost them here.
today Patrap in NO gets the bad weather..
yes your so right..today get your supplies,meds,food etc and hunker down for this storm...its like a winter tropical storm..some sites say gusts in excess of 60 mph,we all know what that does to the snow huh..piled up on the side of the house up and maybe over the roof gee
574. beell
From small beginnings.

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.
remember today..its the northern gulf coast that gets the bad weather..stay safe folks.............SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
517 AM CST THU FEB 7 2013

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AFFECTING HANCOCK
COUNTY...HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 514 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DIAMONDHEAD TO WAVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PASS CHRISTIAN...LYMAN...LONG BEACH...GULFPORT AIRPORT...GULFPORT AND
BILOXI

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

MJH
7-day for the Tampa Bay area..
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel
Freezing rain advisory issued for #Chicago for this morning. Slick travel possible
Mornin' gang!

Good evening Aussie.. your dinner sounded delicious
Mornin all! Big snow up the NE! Gonna be a big pain for some and happy day for others!

61.5F and rainy on da bayou Grande!
Starting this Monday is the Westminster Dog Show in Madison Square Garden in NYC. I have so many friends going. (I show dogs) Most are going Friday as there are breed Specialties on the weekend. This storm is going to impact the shows. I hope my friends who are driving are really considering the roads carefully before they leave.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' gang!

Good evening Aussie.. your dinner sounded delicious

It was mate! I'm still full from it and dinner was 3hrs ago. I'll probably have to go donate blood tomorrow to lower my iron levels but it was worth it.

Looks like the UK is in for some more snow on Sunday and Monday.



I don't think some realize just how severe this system will be.

Here's a post from Michael Phelps (Storm Chaser):
Note: He's typically pessimistic about these kinds of things.

"The Great Blizzard of 2013 is on the way for New England and parts of the Canadian Maritimes. It is shaping up to be one of the worst ever, if not THE worse ever, and that is really saying something given the history of that region. It's intensity will be beyond the scope of anything anyone there has ever experienced, so people will be prone to make the wrong choices regarding it. Do not take this storm lightly. It is NOT just another snowstorm. The snow will come on so suddenly, and fall so heavily that it will cripple many areas within an hour or two. Snow plows will be ineffective, and emergency personnel will not be able to respond to emergencies for many hours during the height of the storm. Power outages will be widespread and could last days with bitterly cold air coming in behind the storm. Some areas will see more than 3 feet of snow with drifts up to 20 feet, so don't even try to shovel this snow. Plan on being trapped in your home or business for several days. The snow starts in the Northeast and New England Friday morning and ends Saturday morning, while the Canadian Maritimes get blasted on Saturday and Saturday night. PREPARE NOW!"
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Mornin all! Big snow up the NE! Gonna be a big pain for some and happy day for others!

61.5F and rainy on da bayou Grande!


Hope your vacation was a lot of fun for you. Good to have you back!
Another day without outside recess due to the 'lakes' still on the playground.

Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie, have a great Friday!
I got rain yesterday in WPB!:)
Quoting LargoFl:
south florida also,warm and probably dry....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think some realize just how severe this system will be.

Here's a post from Michael Phelps (Storm Chaser):
Note: He's typically pessimistic about these kinds of things.

"The Great Blizzard of 2013 is on the way for New England and parts of the Canadian Maritimes. It is shaping up to be one of the worst ever, if not THE worse ever, and that is really saying something given the history of that region. It's intensity will be beyond the scope of anything anyone there has ever experienced, so people will be prone to make the wrong choices regarding it. Do not take this storm lightly. It is NOT just another snowstorm. The snow will come on so suddenly, and fall so heavily that it will cripple many areas within an hour or two. Snow plows will be ineffective, and emergency personnel will not be able to respond to emergencies for many hours during the height of the storm. Power outages will be widespread and could last days with bitterly cold air coming in behind the storm. Some areas will see more than 3 feet of snow with drifts up to 20 feet, so don't even try to shovel this snow. Plan on being trapped in your home or business for several days. The snow starts in the Northeast and New England Friday morning and ends Saturday morning, while the Canadian Maritimes get blasted on Saturday and Saturday night. PREPARE NOW!"


Friends and family up there are taking it seriously. If you grew up with blizzards, you know what they are like. I've talked with a couple and they already have their food, water and wood set and ready to go. Those without fireplaces are moving in today or tonight with friends or family who do.
Odd that the front page of the online NY Times doesn't have a story on this coming 'Snowmageddon'. Can't even see a link to 'weather' on it.
slight risk flag day 3

Absolutely historic

Special weather statement for:
Metro Montréal - Laval
Vaudreuil - Soulanges - Huntingdon
Richelieu Valley - Saint-Hyacinthe
Lanaudière
Lachute - Saint-Jérôme
Eastern Townships.

Snow to end the week.


------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system from Texas will move to lie near Lake Erie
Friday morning and then merge with an intense low pressure system
developing over the American seaboard. Snow associated with this
system will begin this evening over Southern Quebec and will continue
Friday. A more intense band of snow could affect some areas of
Southwestern Quebec and the Eastern Townships.



The different guidance models do not agree upon the expected snowfall
amounts but the trend shows near 15 centimetres could fall over these
areas and even 20 centimetres near the American Border.



Moderate northeast winds will also accompany this system beginning on
Friday evening along the St Lawrence Valley. With the expected
snowfalls, these winds could significantly reduce visibilities in
blowing snow.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.



End

Special weather statement for:
New Brunswick.

Heavy snow...Strong northeast winds and blowing snow for
Saturday and into Sunday mainly for Southern New Brunswick.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Current indications suggest that a low pressure system will intensify
as it passes near Cape Hatteras on Friday and then will track south
of Nova Scotia Saturday night.

This system will give snow at times heavy, strong northeast winds and
blowing snow for portions of Southern New Brunswick. It should start
Friday night and continue through Saturday. While it is still too
early to give a precise estimate of snowfall potential, some guidance
is indicating amounts of 15 to 30 centimetres over Southern New
Brunswick.

Strong northeasterlies and northerlies over the gulf of st.
Lawrence may also give higher than normal water levels, and will push
pack ice into north to northeast facing shorelines.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
Special weather statement for:
Mainland Nova Scotia
Cape Breton.

Significant snowfall and strong winds forecast for Saturday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Current indications suggest that a low pressure system will intensify
as it passes near Cape Hatteras on Friday and then will track south
of Nova Scotia Saturday night.

This system will give snow at times heavy, strong northeast winds and
blowing snow to Nova Scotia Friday night and Saturday.
These conditions will persist Saturday night and into Sunday morning
for Cape Breton and Eastern Nova Scotia. While it is too early to
give a precise estimate of snowfall potential, some guidance is
indicating amounts in excess of 30 centimetres are possible for parts
of Nova Scotia.

Strong northeasterlies and northerlies over the gulf of st.
Lawrence may also give higher than normal water levels, and will push
pack ice into north to northeast facing shorelines.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Absolutely historic


Not historic. Those areas have seen 2 feet of snow from one storm numerous times. Quit hyping all of you.
And sure enough the climate change alarmists will be on the very next day vehemently proclaiming that this system was caused by AGW. Climate Change is at full work here. The POUNDING away at the agenda will continue...
Everything starts tonight across my area..

Winds up to 55 mph
Snowfall: up to 15"...could even go up if blizzard watches are issued to nearly 2 FEET
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Everything starts tonight across my area..

Winds up to 55 mph
Snowfall: up to 15"...could even go up if blizzard watches are issued to nearly 2 FEET

Be safe.
Quoting stormchaser43:

Not historic. Those areas have seen 2 feet of snow from one storm numerous times. Quit hyping all of you.


I still think it will be... wait for snow totals... I'll report mine
Quoting stormchaser43:

Not historic. Those areas have seen 2 feet of snow from one storm numerous times. Quit hyping all of you.
Actually, Boston rarely see 2 feet of snow, as you'll noticed below.



Also, this storm is supposedly to dump up to 30" to 36" of snow. That's historic.
Quoting stormchaser43:
And sure enough the climate change alarmists will be on the very next day vehemently proclaiming that this system was caused by AGW. Climate Change is at full work here. The POUNDING away at the agenda will continue...

Weren't you just complaining yesterday about people constantly mentioning AGW on the blog? And now you're bringing it up when nobody has said anything about it?

Wtf?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I still think it will be... wait for snow totals... I'll report mine
Keep us posted. I just can't wait for the climate change alarmists to get on here warning us that this will happen all the time and this will begin happening in August too.
Quoting stormchaser43:
And sure enough the climate change alarmists will be on the very next day vehemently proclaiming that this system was caused by AGW. Climate Change is at full work here. The POUNDING away at the agenda will continue...



seems the only one doing the pounding is you
maybe ya spend too much time alone
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Weren't you just complaining yesterday about people constantly mentioning AGW on the blog? And now you're bringing it up when nobody has said anything about it?

Wtf?
You must have the wrong girl. I never said that...
From the NWS is Gary/Portland



Over two feet in southern New Hampshire and northeast Mass
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



seems the only one doing the pounding is you
maybe ya spend too much time alone
Little hard being a female. Ya know.
Try again, Keeper.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Actually, Boston rarely see 2 feet of snow, as you'll noticed below.



Also, this storm is supposedly to dump up to 30" to 36" of snow. That's historic.


thank you...that is why I'm calling this storm for being potentially historic...
Quoting stormchaser43:
Try again, Keeper.



nah i like this place

yer not worth it TB
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thank you...that is why I'm calling this storm for being potentially historic...


"Potentially historic" is a good word to use. I'm still worry that this event will end up being busted. Storm like this take a near perfect setup for that to occurs.
Ummm... Whoa!!!

Good morning,

I would not be surprised if some of these people who constantly argue against each other about climate change/GW is actually one person...sad day when you have to create your own nemesis just so you can bring up the topic.
Here is my concern..

My house sits on a hill, from there Im able to see most of my neighborhood, and since I live on a second floor...plus there is a huge power pole next to one of my two windows....

I think I have to go somewhere
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Here is my concern..

My house sits on a hill, from there Im able to see most of my neighborhood, and since I live on a second floor...plus there is a huge power pole next to one of my two windows....

I think I have to go somewhere


Didn't you fare well during Sandy.. I though you posted some pictures and such. Will this be more dangerous to you than Sandy?
Quoting Bluestorm5:


"Potentially historic" is a good word to use. I'm still worry that this event will end up being busted. Storm like this take a near perfect setup for that to occurs.


I think that is slipping out of probability... but there is a chance for it too, I watched TWC last night and this guy asked Cantore, who was giving the update, if there was any chance for that not to happen, Cantore said there is always a chance, but in this case it's becoming much less likely.

I added the word "potentially" to bring it down a little bit.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Didn't you fare well during Sandy.. I though you posted some pictures and such. Will this be more dangerous to you than Sandy?


Yes Sandy was bad... but no I was not here. I left to Massachusetts and came back two days after
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Yes Sandy was bad... but no I was not here. I left to Massachusetts and came back two days after


ahh, I see said the blind man. :)
Good morning folks

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
402 AM CST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO
FREEZING RAIN.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF SNOW OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES IS FORECAST.

WIZ058>060-064>066-070>072-071815-
/O.EXT.KMKX.WS.W.0002.130207T1600Z-130208T0600Z/
DODGE-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWA UKEE-WALWORTH-
RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAVER DAM...WEST BEND...
PORT WASHINGTON...JEFFERSON...LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...
BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA
402 AM CST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...LIGHT RAIN...AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW WILL THEN FALL THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS AND RAPID
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.

&&

$$


------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

000
FXUS62 KTAE 071121
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
621 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...
The large scale split flow longwave pattern commences unamplified
especially east of MS River with nearly zonal flow. However a low
amplitude shortwave was moving across LA/MS. H3 height analysis
show that local area will soon become increasingly under influence
of exit region of upper jet aiding in upward vertical motion. At
the surface, a low was deepening low near LA/MS coast with warm
front extending east, and cold front extending SWWD into TX. Weak
high pressure with cold wedge extends down the Atlantic seaboard.

During today, models are in good agreement. The shortwave will
quickly translate ENE from Cntrl Gulf to NE Gulf region by late aftn
then towards coastal Carolina tonight. Associated low will move E/NE
into the Panhandle this aftn then NEWD through SW GA late this aftn.
It will be accompanied initially by isentropic lift, increasing
cloud cover and light rain to start the day, then by numerous
showers and thunderstorms. As low lifts NEWD, warm front will lift
to coast by mid morning then NEWD to FL/GA border by early aftn,
then to Nrn tier GA counties by late aftn with trailing cold front
dragged across during early to late eve. However by then, most of
the energy will have evacuated with the low.

Model QPF continues to show the heaviest rains mainly tandem with
the low induced rainbands, that is a swath from Panhandle waters
early then expanding NEWD later in the day to our northern tier
Georgia zones with amounts in the 1.5" inch range. Will include
mention of heavy rain for those zones. The system should move fast
enough to prevent flooding concerns, but minor localized street
and urban flooding is possible especially in any training echoes.
As the shortwave and surface low lift to the northeast off the
mid-Atlantic coast tonight, rain will gradually end from west to
east.

POPs closely follow local CAM, WRF and local confidence tool. Will
continue with TRW+ with gusty winds across the Panhandle thru NE
tier GA counties. Unless SPC places us in watch will not introduce
any stronger wording. Temps tricky as determined by depth of warm
sector and clouds. Will go with highs mid 60s SE AL to mid 70s SE
Big Bend. Lows upper 40s north to mid to upper 50s south with the
potential for ample fog which may be dense.

The main forecast question is the severe weather potential. The
position of the surface low will determine how much of our CWA
gets placed inside the warm sector and ultimately the potential
for a few strong to severe storms. For now we think the threat
will mainly be confined to a narrow corridor, south of I-10 as
defined by a line from Defuniak Springs thru Blountstown to
Alligator Point from 18z-00z which includes Panama City and
Apalachicola. Increasing wind fields and strong shear favor some
potential for damaging winds. Also can`t discount rotating storms
and perhaps an isold tornado. Latest CAM guidance shows the
possibility of a few supercells developing and moving across the
coastal waters and some of our coastal Florida zones. Instabilities
drop off considerably as you move inland and to the east or
closer to cold wedge.


I should see some nice action out of this fast moving low later today :)

The good amount of lift and dynamics present should support a few stronger storms, along with much needed rain!
Headline from the National Weather Service in Tauton, MA:

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...
625. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Here is my concern..

My house sits on a hill, from there Im able to see most of my neighborhood, and since I live on a second floor...plus there is a huge power pole next to one of my two windows....

I think I have to go somewhere


Follow your NWS advisories..

I was looking at NCEP Precipitation and wind charts Yes there will be snow and wind but not so sure that its as bad as being conveyed ...

Model Analysis and Guidance 06Z Precipitation

Model Analysis and Guidance 06z 200_wnd_ht
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Headline from the National Weather Service in Tauton, MA:

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...


"Potentially historic" just like I said earlier...
Link

1888 blizzard
I wish it was colder in NC. We could've gotten a large amount of snow out of this low.
at least this is definitely for sure

probability for 4 inches

Good Morning.

In North Florida, I noticed the Dogwoods coming into full bloom this morning. Redbuds have been out for a week, maple have made seeds and are dropping them, and Azaleas are on their way out after a great showing. The shocker is that the Azalea festival is four Saturdays away! I doubt there will be many left.
Happy New Year of the Snake! This one is tricky since we typically get at least two weeks of cold and have barely had two frosty mornings so far. Mid to late February is when we get socked but so far nothing to shake a stick at. I feel silly brining in plants when it is in the mid 70's outside.
Did the cold mizer head somewhere for a vacation this year?

Oh, I see he did.
633. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
at least this is definitely for sure

probability for 4 inches



Thats alot different to 12+ inches..
Blizzard alerts could be expanded even more, into the areas with the arrows




As discussed in the NWS office for my area..
Blizzard conditions could be for al larger area...so can be the blizzard alerts as well.

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE 40/70
BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
LOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO...WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND PHASE WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THESE 2 SYSTEMS PHASE...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE OCEAN...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR BLIZZARD CONDS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...SO
HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR SUFFOLK...NEW
HAVEN...MIDDLESEX...AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT BLIZZARD CONDS WOULD EXTEND INTO WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.
Scott McPartland ‏@scottmcpartland
00z ECMWF shows this storm bombing out big time between 00z and 06z tomorrow night. 992mb down to 976mb in 6 hours! 4mb per hour drop. Nice!
Quoting VR46L:


Thats alot different to 12+ inches..


for 12" is not 100% everywhere though...

Vermont and upstate NY
Only a fool would make the claim that tomorrow's potentially historic nor'easter will be "caused" by global warming--and only a bigger fool would make the claim that anyone credible has said that. After all, there's a whole world of difference between saying climate change caused a specific weather event and saying climate change made that specific weather event worse. Denialists know that, which is why they desperately work themselves into a lather making lame strawman arguments in the hopes that the lesser-informed won't recognize the difference.

Having said all that, Andrew Freeman over at Climate Central had this to say about this weekend's event:

"Heavy precipitation events in the Northeast, including both rain and snowstorms, have been increasing, in a trend that a new federal climate report links to manmade global climate change. In addition, rising sea levels due to warming seas and melting ice caps are already making typical nor'easters such as the upcoming event more risky, since they provide the storms with a higher launching pad for causing coastal flooding."

So, no, GW won't "cause" this weekend's storm, so feel free to ignore anyone who says otherwise. But feel just as free to ignore those who flatly deny any connection between the two whatsoever.
Not really often a storm makes the loop of doom


Quoting JupiterKen:
Link

1888 blizzard


Thanks for posting that link..
Simply amazing storm..
Thanks to Chris Burt for all the work to research and posting..
Kudo's..
hey guys, dont have time to check all the models, what do they show now?
still 30-40 inches?
is the NAM still the crazy outlier?
Good Morning All..
A soggy one this am..



The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
central Escambia County in northwest Florida...
southeastern Baldwin County in southwest Alabama...

* until 815 am CST

* at 718 am CST... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging
winds over 60 mph was located near Foley... or 4 miles west of
Elberta... and moving northeast at 20 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Summerdale... Foley... Elberta...

This includes Interstate 10 in Florida between mile markers 1 and 8.
This includes Interstate 10 in Alabama between mile markers 57 and
66.

Lat... Lon 3030 8765 3044 8778 3073 8741 3052 8728
time... Mot... loc 1319z 236deg 19kt 3041 8766
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
hey guys, dont have time to check all the models, what do they show now?
still 30-40 inches?
is the NAM still the crazy outlier?
Euro is showing 24-30 inches. Not sure about GFS, though. I'm at school right now and haven't got a chance to check it.
I guess it shifted north and less?
still 30" in boston

we are getting a mess of historical storms past few yrs
I can tell you this noreaster is giving me a drab rainy day.
That's why I don't like noreasters when they come through GA before heading NE
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I can tell you this noreaster is giving me a drab rainy day.
That's why I don't like noreasters when they come through GA before heading NE
YES YOU BE CAREFUL UP THERE..HOPE NO TORNADO'S
Breaking News Storm ‏@breakingstorm
Flight delays reported at Chicago's O'Hare Airport due to snow and ice - @NBCNews
NAM for SW Conn..

I hope the models are wrong, is there yet another storm going to go up the east coast Next week?...well i remember NY and Feb was always a dangerous month for snow storms etc....stay safe folks..heed your local warnings.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I guess it shifted north and less?
still 30" in boston



Doesn't the NAM model usually underestimate snowfall totals?
well GFS at 192 hours..
Well, see ya guys gotta go to school... be back early this afternoon
Stay well, Stay safe, Prepare for this snow storm if your in the warned area.

Good night all.
Nemo at its worst! (Saturday)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TODAY...THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE STORM TRACK TO OUR EAST...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
so far no warnings for the carolina's except gale warnings off the coast
Starting to get cranked up..







URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

NYZ001-002-010-011-071700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.130208T0600Z-130209T1000Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
354 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO
5 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A STORM TOTAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES...A HALF MILE OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL. SNOW WILL FALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT THE BULK
OF THE SNOW WILL FALL.
Quoting pcola57:
Starting to get cranked up..









Woah, is that the Texas storm from yesterday?
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 845 AM CST

* AT 739 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS OVER 60 MPH WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARRINGTON...OR
11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PERDIDO BEACH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... MIDWAY...
WOODLAWN BEACH... TIGER POINT... PEA RIDGE...
MULAT... HOLLEY... FLORIDATOWN...
ORIOLE BEACH...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 28.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Woah, is the the Texas storm from yesterday?


Yes it is..
Coming together again now..
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Woah, is the the Texas storm from yesterday?
yes it is and when it reaches the atlantic its going to be the nor'easter that makes the blizzard up north
Quoting pcola57:


Yes it is..
Coming together again now..


Is it one of the two systems that is going to form the nor'easter?
wow folks in the northeast THis is coming to you..
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Is it one of the two systems that is going to form the nor'easter?


Right now it's creeping along the SE..
Will accelerate to the North and become quite dangerous..

(See post #694)
I'm still watching the models for a huge winter storm that is supposed to hit my area Sunday night into Monday.

The ECMWF is showing a possible thundersnow event.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS?........URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

ANZ150-152-154-080245-
/O.CAN.KGYX.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-130207T1200Z/
/O.CON.KGYX.HF.A.0001.130209T0000Z-130210T0000Z/
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
644 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
70 KT. SEAS 28 TO 33 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...
BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT
IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY
WISH TO CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.
Hmmmm.... Perhaps the 'Perfect Storm'???

Saw a post yesterday that referred to 'Nemo' backwards is Omen!!!

Yikes.
Quoting pcola57:


Right now it's creeping along th SE..
Will accelerate to the North and become quite dangerous..


I bet Washingtonian is getting excited for this.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
I'm still watching the models for a huge winter storm that is supposed to hit my area Sunday night into Monday.

The ECMWF is showing a possible thundersnow event.



You can trust that model better tomorrow..
Prepare now..IMO
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Hmmmm.... Perhaps the 'Perfect Storm'???

Saw a post yesterday that referred to 'Nemo' backwards is Omen!!!

Yikes.


This is going to be dangerous, but it wont be another Sandy.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


This is going to be dangerous, but it wont be another Sandy.
Snow or Rain... Still has wind. Power outages, trees down, etc.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
357 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

NYZ009-018-036-037-080900-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0001.130208T1200Z-130209T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0001.130208T0900Z-130209T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...SYRACUSE...ONEIDA...UTICA...
ROME
357 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM
FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...ONONDAGA...MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY...FALLING INTO
THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY BECOMING NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$
Quoting FunnelVortex:


This is going to be dangerous, but it wont be another Sandy.


Comparing apples to oranges..

Quoting pcola57:


You can trust that model better tomorrow..
Prepare now..IMO


Well, the winds are only going to be 12-15 MPH and it is going to start out as a mix and turn to snow.

How much snow? I dont know yet. But the ECMWF CAPE values show what could be a potential thundersleet/thundersnow event.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Well, the winds are only going to be 12-15 MPH and it is going to start out as a mix and turn to snow.

How much snow? I dont know yet. But the ECMWF CAPE values show what could be a potential thundersleet/thundersnow event.
Sorry and I don't mean to be rude... But winds up to 60 mph!
New York City and the northern mid-Atlantic are on the edge of a major storm that will hit New England as a blizzard Friday and Friday night.

Only if two storms, an Alberta Clipper from the west and a storm from the South, merge very quickly will there be more than a manageable amount of snow (a foot) in New York City, northern New Jersey, southwestern Connecticut, Long Island, northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York
I hope there is no reason to believe this system stalls out over boston for days
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Sorry and I don't mean to be rude... But winds up to 60 mph!


I'm talking about the snowstorm that is supposed to hit my area on Sunday.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I'm talking about the snowstorm that is supposed to hit my area on Sunday.
My mistake... I thought we were talking about the Noreaster for Friday into Saturday.

Nemo.
687. 900MB
Hey all. Anyone know what the last time the Euro came out, and when the next euro comes out?

Also, anyone have the latest Euro snowfall map for NYC. It is the only one I trust at this point.

Thanks!
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I'm talking about the snowstorm that is supposed to hit my area on Sunday.


From your blog post I see your in Central Wisconsin..
And as you know,weather can get really bad there..
I think you should error on the side of caution..
JMO FWIW.. :)
Quoting JustPlantIt:
My mistake... I thought we were talking about the Noreaster for Friday into Saturday.


Yeah, the storm I posted about in comment 671
This winter storm won't be affecting my area like that so I don't really care for the storm.Enjoy you all's snow.
The 7 day forecast for my area (link embedded)

(I circled the snowstorm timeframe in red)



Quoting FunnelVortex:
The 7 day forecast for my area (link embedded)

(I circled the snowstorm timeframe in red)



From your post #676 in reference to 'Sandy', I assumed that you resided on the East Coast.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
From your post #676 in reference to 'Sandy', I assumed that you resided on the East Coast.


I thought you were comparing Nemo with Sandy, so thats why I said that.
Quoting 900MB:
Hey all. Anyone know what the last time the Euro came out, and when the next euro comes out?

Also, anyone have the latest Euro snowfall map for NYC. It is the only one I trust at this point.

Thanks!



Not the best Image but shows a solid 10-14" ATT..



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
653 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013


.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

TWO LOWS APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GULF COAST MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR BY THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.

LOW PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE 40/70
BENCHMARK BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
LOW...ALONG WITH A STRONG H5 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO...WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND PHASE WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THESE 2 SYSTEMS PHASE...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE OCEAN...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR BLIZZARD CONDS WILL BE OVER EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...SO
HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR SUFFOLK...NEW
HAVEN...MIDDLESEX...AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA...WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT BLIZZARD CONDS WOULD EXTEND INTO WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE 06Z NAM IS IN A POSITION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT
BOTH ARE A BIT SLOWER AND MORE TO THE WEST AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS. MOST OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN A
POSITION SIMILAR TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE
LOW. FOR NOW...EXPECTING A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW ON
FRIDAY THAT WOULD CHANGE INITIAL SNOWFALL TO RAIN...BUT IF THAT
WARMER AIR DOES NOT MAKE IT...THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW WOULD FALL
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...AND SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD HAVE TO BE
INCREASED. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...WILL CARRY 6-10 INCHES
OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF NYC/NORTHEAST NJ. THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
LONG ISLAND WILL HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 8-12
INCHES...AND CT WOULD RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS...GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 18-24 INCHES OVER EASTERN ZONES. THERE WILL BE
LOCALLY LOWER AND HIGHER AMOUNTS. ONE OTHER NOTE OF CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. IF THIS MAKES IT TO THE LOCAL
AREA...THAT COULD RESULT IN LESS SNOWFALL...BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A MAJOR THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE NYC METRO EAST...CT AND LI.
MODEL WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE RUNNING 50 TO 65
KT...EQUATING TO 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH 50 TO 65 MPH GUSTS
POTENTIAL. HIGHEST WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS EASTERN CT AND
EASTERN LI. THESE WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WOULD PRESENT THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS...SCATTERED DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES
Check back later... gotta get some wood moved just in case!
Moisture being pulled from the GOM at this time..
That's ALOT..

Blowing 30kts+ with horizontal rain in Fort Walton Beach...
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Blowing 30kts with horizontal rain in Fort Walton Beach...


Hello neighbor..
Rainfall so far this am at 1.70",winds 21mph,28.91" pressure,67 degrees with dewpoint at 66..
Soggy,windy here..

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Escambia County in northwest Florida...
southeastern Baldwin County in southwest Alabama...

* until 1000 am CST

* at 800 am CST... showers and thunderstorms moving over the
advisory area have produced 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over the past
hour... and an additional 1 to 1.5 inches will be possible through
1000 am CST. This will result in minor flooding of poor drainage and
low lying areas and ponding of water on roadways.

* Locations impacted include...
Pensacola international Airport... Perdido Beach...
Orange Beach... West Pensacola... Warrington...
Pensacola... Myrtle Grove... Goulding...
Brent...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive rainfall runoff will cause ponding of water in urban
areas... highways... streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage areas and low lying spots.


Lat... Lon 3027 8764 3043 8755 3049 8724 3047 8715
3043 8717 3039 8721 3038 8726 3033 8727
3033 8720 3035 8715 3033 8713 3032 8715
3031 8725 3032 8731 3029 8742

Special Statement..
.. A line of strong thunderstorms will affect southeastern Baldwin
County in southwest Alabama... western Santa Rosa and southern
Escambia counties in northwest Florida... through 945 am CST...

At 825 am CST... a line of strong thunderstorms was located along a
line extending from 8 miles southeast of Robertsdale to 4 miles east
of Foley to 4 miles north of Gulf Shores... and moving east at 40 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Perdido Beach... Orange Beach... Gulf Shores...
Gonzalez... Ensley... Bellview...
Lillian... Foley... Elberta...

This includes Interstate 10 in Florida between mile markers 1 and 10.
This includes Interstate 10 in Alabama between mile markers 49 and
66.

The primary threats from these storms are wind gusts up to 55 mph.
Winds this strong could blow off tree limbs and also blow around
small unsecured objects. Seek shelter until these storms have passed.

These storms may continue to intensify and a warning may soon be
needed. Please continue to monitor local radio or TV for further
National Weather Service updates or possible warnings

699. 900MB
Thanks Pcola57!

Euro seems more bullish for NYC. Anyone else with a great euro snowfall map?
I see we have winter storm Nemo now.

Have a great day and stay safe everyone!! I'll be preparing to be snowed in for a few days. 15-18" will be the most significant snowfall here by far this season.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. Link
NAM out 48hrs..

Link


Looks like this one will almost completely miss me (4-6 inches expected)...

Definitely looking like a great setup for a substantial snowfall for quite a bit of people though!
704. 900MB
Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. Link


That also puts NYC back into the 2' range!
12z NAM



BTW if this rainy pattern keeps up the SE will be more worried about flooding than drought,
12z NAM 6 hour precip





Im here in eastern Mass,and really doubt 3-4 feet,but can see 2-3 feet.Where the deformation zone sets up,is where those kind of totals appear,or under some thundersnow.
I don't think I have ever seen "black" before...



..
Quoting ILwthrfan:




That model also is using a 10:1 ratio for an average too. As the back half the storm pulls away the snow will only translate to a higher ratio. Big Difference on whether you get a 10:1 versus a 12:1. ~ 17% higher could mean 17% more snow too. Then there is the high water anomalies in the Gulf Stream which help add moisture to the system.




Very Good point ILwthrfan..
Seriously! NAM is predicting 16 - 18 inches for my university, and 20 - 25 inches for where I actually live (Newmarket, ON)! I go home for the weekend!
Paper on Post Glacial Rebound (PGR) and affect on water levels in the Great Lakes region:

http://www.geod.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/pgrreportnov2001. pdf

Post Glacial Rebound:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-glacial_rebound
Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue%u200F@RyanMaue

Newest NAM-4km WRF paints the 3-4' (feet) bullseye for Eastern Mass. Link


That model is also using a 10:1 ratio for an average too. As the back half the storm pulls away the snow will only translate to a higher ratio. Big Difference on whether you get a 10:1 versus a 12:1. ~ 17% higher could mean 17% more snow too. Then there is the high water anomalies in the Gulf Stream which only help add moisture to the system.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 800 AM CST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
1000 AM CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... PERDIDO BEACH...
ORANGE BEACH... WEST PENSACOLA... WARRINGTON...
PENSACOLA... MYRTLE GROVE... GOULDING...
BRENT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&
big time cooling in sea temper is going on

FEB 4th





here the new one FEB 7th



This system is already well ahead of the game in terms of organization as you can see on radar. Add to that a phasing of yet another solid system over Wisconsin and you have system that has yet even to tap into Gulf Stream waters let alone phase. It's not surprising at all to see the models spitting out +2 feet of snow over such a large area. Probably going to see a lot of thundersnow.

lets say for arguments sake..it does approach 3 feet of snow..that along with 60 mph winds..do you have any idea at all what that will do?...........folks dont listen to us..go out NOW and buy your supplies and meds etc..stores may not be open for a few days if not more..and most importantly...check on the elderly..make sure they are ok and ready for this
Quoting LargoFl:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CST

* AT 800 AM CST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
ADVISORY AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
1000 AM CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... PERDIDO BEACH...
ORANGE BEACH... WEST PENSACOLA... WARRINGTON...
PENSACOLA... MYRTLE GROVE... GOULDING...
BRENT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&


Yeah we have plenty of water here now..
Quoting ILwthrfan:
This system is already well ahead of the game in terms of organization as you can see on radar. Add to that a phasing of yet another solid system over Wisconsin and you have system that has yet even to tap into Gulf Stream waters let alone phase. It's not surprising at all to see the models spitting out +2 feet of snow over such a large area. Probably going to see a lot of thundersnow.

we here in florida and along the gulf coast are so lucky..this isnt august
Quoting Tazmanian:
big time cooling in sea temper is going on

FEB 4th





here the new one FEB 7th





HurricaneDean07 was talking about this earlier today on his blog. It certainly looks concerning. We will have to see what it looks like as we get into spring. If conditions persist with what your showing, people have been mumbling the 2005 year as a analog.
Quoting LargoFl:
lets say for arguments sake..it does approach 3 feet of snow..that along with 60 mph winds..do you have any idea at all what that will do?...........folks dont listen to us..go out NOW and buy your supplies and meds etc..stores may not be open for a few days if not more..and most importantly...check on the elderly..make sure they are ok and ready for this


And for the students tuning in, this storm will be a great study for you as well..
IF i remember right...one inch of rain could equal one foot of snow..and this coming nor'easter is dumping 3-4 inches of rain..now add to that the cold low coming from the west..together this is going to be a record breaker i guess..
Quoting ILwthrfan:
This system is already well ahead of the game in terms of organization as you can see on radar. Add to that a phasing of yet another solid system over Wisconsin and you have system that has yet even to tap into Gulf Stream waters let alone phase. It's not surprising at all to see the models spitting out +2 feet of snow over such a large area. Probably going to see a lot of thundersnow.



the GFS has been showing the low in each run developing faster than predicted..I showed this last night with the 18z/12z run

06z


00z
Quoting SteveDa1:
Looks like this one will almost completely miss me (4-6 inches expected)...

Definitely looking like a great setup for a substantial snowfall for quite a bit of people though!


You should be happy with 4-6, I haven't seen half that all year combined. #@(*&! That track could shift 50 miles and put you in a whole other category.
Later, I'll have to look up the all-time record snowstorm list for #Toronto. Link #nemo #blizzard
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
has anyone noticed the WU Nexrad stations are now showing a larger area per station, only the signal range is still the same size? i haven't been on the blog for some days so i don't know if this has been mentioned, just curious.. it's a bit odd to me
Quoting LargoFl:
IF i remember right...one inch of rain could equal one foot of snow..and this coming nor'easter is dumping 3-4 inches of rain..now add to that the cold low coming from the west..together this is going to be a record breaker i guess..
I think the snow ratio is going to be at 10:1 to 12:1, meaning 10-12 inches of snow for every inch of rain. I thinking we'll see at least 20" of snow at the least and 40" of snow at the most.
suns out here and hardly a cloud in sight but getting real windy now..come on..gimme some rain lol
New Blog.. :)
A repost from the previous thread to help with continued issues in understanding the relationship between snowfall and climate...
Quoting stormchaser43:
Keep us posted. I just can't wait for the climate change alarmists to get on here warning us that this will happen all the time and this will begin happening in August too.

No, it wont happen "all the time" or "in August too."
Let's take a step back from irrational straw man arguments, ad hominem comments, and overall ignorance for a second, and take a look at what the data actually shows scientists regarding possible climatic trends in snowfall.

Is snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere changing? Yes, in some ways. The trend for Northern Hemisphere snow coverr is downward since the late 1960s, and the trend is statistically significant:


Is the seasonality of this snow cover changing? Yes. The trends in snow cover are different for each season, with possible slight increases in the middle of winter and very steep declines in the summer and fall/autumn:
July Trends
February Trends

Snow cover might be increasing in winter, but is that directly tied to stronger winter storms?
Possibly. Some stations show an overall upward trend since the 1980s, other stations show a downward trend:


How can an overall increase in the average heat energy of earth's climate system cause more snow? As anyone who has studied meteorology knows, snow is related to temperature, but not directly correlated. That is because snow is precipitation, but is a precipitation dependent on particular temperature ranges; after a certain point cooler temperatures correlate with reduced snowfall amounts. As the Northeast Regional Climate Center explains:
In the short run, climate change could actually mean more heavy snowstorms. A warmer atmosphere means that the air can hold more water vapor, and this can result in more storms with heavy precipitation. In fact, scientists have already documented an increase in heavy precipitation events. If it is cold enough to snow, these storms can drop heavy snow instead of rain. However, the possible links between climate change and heavy snowfall is an area of active scientific research, with no definitive answers yet. And many credit the past two years of heavy snow to the North Atlantic Oscillation, and not necessarily to climate change.

Just as indicated, atmospheric moisture is increasing:

An increase in atmospheric moisture generally leads to an increase in precipitation, and when temperatures are cold enough to snow (for example, Winter), an increase in snowfall could be expected.
Quoting Minnemike:
has anyone noticed the WU Nexrad stations are now showing a larger area per station, only the signal range is still the same size? i haven't been on the blog for some days so i don't know if this has been mentioned, just curious.. it's a bit odd to me


Mine too. Click on the word Radar at the top and it will revert to the correct size.