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Mighty North Atlantic low bombs to 930 mb

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:04 PM GMT on January 26, 2013

In the Northern Atlantic south of Iceland, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday has put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, with the center pressure dropping 58 mb in 24 hours. The Free University of Berlin, which names all major high and low pressure systems that affect Europe, has named the storm "Jolle." This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 988 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, and hit 930 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. The storm may deepen a few more millibars today, but it is close to maximum intensity. A 930 mb central pressure is what one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is one of the lowest pressures attained by an Atlantic extratropical storm in recent decades. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) The powerful storm brought sustained winds of 52 mph, gusting to 72 mph, to Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland at 6 pm local time Saturday. Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before Jolle's core hurricane-force winds affect any land areas.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Jolle, as seen at 10 am EST January 26, 2013. Three hours prior to this image, Jolle was analyzed with a central pressure of 930 mb--one of the lowest pressures in recent decades for an Atlantic extratropical storm. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on
Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Links
You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at the University of Bern. The raw MODIS pass is here.

The Meteorological Institute of Norway has a nice satellite animation of Jolle.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post,
Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Read my story of what it was like to fly though a 936 mb Atlantic low pressure system on January 4, 1989.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease of intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Gratzi.
Whow that a powerfull subtropical storm wich will pump lots of warm air into the arctic
thankzi
Prego..:)
Thanks Doc.
Yesterdays Temp. in Nuuk Green Land was 16 degrees above normal a hot 36F i think the Eskimos must have had a beach day
Impressive!
Quoting wxmod:
Impressive!

Its a little big........ but seriously holy crap
Quoting belizeit:
Whow that a powerfull subtropical storm wich will pump lots of warm air into the arctic


Okay, I guess its time again to ask one of my stupid questions ...

With warm air being pushed into the Artice will it cause it to snow? Or will it just melt the snow and ice?
Thanks Dr Masters. Jolle I think has reach peak intensity imo but we will see.btw jolle is a male name right?
Hot off the press. MODIS Aqua satellite image
Thank you Dr. Masters...That's freekin' scary
IT will snow at some places but i doubt it will be able to push enough warm air to cause melting
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EST Saturday 26 January 2013
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.3 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 24.6°F
Dewpoint: 11.8°F
Humidity: 58 %
Wind: SSW 3 mph
Wind Chill: 21
Piarco International Airport, Trinidad.

Temp 86F
Humid. 55%
Wind 18 mph east.

I'll take that.
imagine if our monster was centred over the grt lakes

thanks for update doc

have a great saturday enjoy the warmup
Quoting txjac:


Okay, I guess its time again to ask one of my stupid questions ...

With warm air being pushed into the Artice will it cause it to snow? Or will it just melt the snow and ice?


It is not exactly what I would call a stupid question. In any case, we learn by asking questions, so it is all good.

The bottom line is that it is more complicated than the premise of your question would indicate. It would take more than just the infusion of warmer-than-normal air into the arctic to cause it to snow there. Many things involving atmospheric dynamics must take place to cause snow to fall in the arctic region as well as anywhere else. But the Atlantic moisture being pushed counterclockwise in front of this monster storm could well inject a lot of moisture into the arctic region and this would be one necessary factor for snow to develop, in some places. Remember that the Arctic is covers a very vast area and this storm, big as it is, will impact only a relatively small part of that.

As for ice melting, that is less likely to happen simply because this is not the season when ice melt normally occurs there as a result of air temperature rise, at least not to any significant extent. Part of the reason for this is that the term "warm" is relative and another reason is that the warmer air will not last long in any one place.
Danke, Doktor
Amateur Mets need to read Dr. Lee's latest blog.. great explanation of some basic charts.... Link
Thanks Belize and Florida Water Front for your answers in terms that I could understand
by this time next weekend back to normal or just below winter low temps

Thanks for the update Doc! I love these type of extratropical storms.

In good news, the cold blast helped the Great Lakes form a healthier amount of ice.

Before the cold wave:



Most recent:

Maximum forecast temperatures for Tuesday, January 29:



...and for Day 4, Wednesday, January 30:



Spring-lovers will be happy.
Getting some more rain today. On Wednesday the MTD was .03, Thursday added .19 and Friday .37 for a total of .59 Today so far .08 and barely raining.

What a time for the radar to be out of commission. Have to use San Diegos and it barely shows anything.



Looks like the shows over for today.
Thanks Doc
It's early morning, the sun comes out
Last night was shaking pretty loud,
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Jolle sure is an impressive storm.

Soooo what are everyone's thoughts on this upcoming Severe Wx Outbreak? 
Quoting Thrawst:
Soooo what are everyone's thoughts on this upcoming Severe Wx Outbreak? 
at its peak at 1 pm wed onward till sunset

Quoting Thrawst:
Soooo what are everyone's thoughts on this upcoming Severe Wx Outbreak? 

Organized squall line with supercells ahead on Tuesday and a broken line on Wednesday.
A low pressure system that is situated northwest of the Hawaiian Islands should move generally eastward and bring heavy rain and possible thunderstorms to the islands by late tomorrow through early Tuesday. Flash flood watch has been issued for the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Meanwhile, there is a large area of dry air south of Hawaii.

Quoting Thrawst:
Soooo what are everyone's thoughts on this upcoming Severe Wx Outbreak?
Two days of severe storms, according to SPC.

Quoting Thrawst:
Soooo what are everyone's thoughts on this upcoming Severe Wx Outbreak? 


It may wind up as less impressive than first thought. It is possible.

1. The peak energy with the system may arrive in the Mississippi/Arkansas
area during the middle of the night or the wee hours of Wednesday morning,
and not during the maximum diurnal heating time of the afternoon.

2. By the time the maximum daytime heating could take effect, the energy with the system may be positioned over the bumpy and still-cooled ground of NE Alabama and central and East Tennessee, where the cooler and more stable air pooling over and east of the Appalachians may inhibit maximum severe Wx potential.

3. Further south and where the air will be warmer, dew points will be higher and surface instability will be greater, the upper level wind profile will not be nearly as conducive for the development of super cells and severe Wx in general. It's the infamous, "The main energy with this system passed to our north" scenario.

4. I could be totally, completely and absolutely wrong as wrong could be. We'll see.


Not other word but WOW!!!!

Such an spectacular storm....
Jolle is currently bringing snow and rain to Iceland and the British Isles.
Quoting Civicane49:
Jolle is currently bringing snow and rain to Iceland and the British Isles.


Jolle, is that its name?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Jolle, is that its name?


Yep
Recent wind gust here 39 kts (North ROI)


I know is not the centre of the storm but Radar UK and Ireland

A weak tropical cyclone has developed over the South Indian Ocean. This incipient system is forecast to move generally westward and later southwestward when it nears Madagascar. The storm is also anticipated to intensify steadily in relatively favorable conditions. The GFS and ECMWF are forecasting the cyclone to recurve just before hitting Madagascar by late next week. Some uncertainty remains whether the system will make landfall there. If the cyclone strengthens further, it will be named Felleng.



Life is Good again -The Auto Racing Season started - 24 Hours of Daytona

For everyone else:

There are 126 days until
Saturday, 1 June 2013.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Getting some more rain today. On Wednesday the MTD was .03, Thursday added .19 and Friday .37 for a total of .59 Today so far .08 and barely raining.

What a time for the radar to be out of commission. Have to use San Diegos and it barely shows anything.



Looks like the shows over for today.
Finished with 1.70 inches here.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Finished with 1.70 inches here.


Now up to .13 for the day. So, .72 for the year.
Did you see the question I asked you about radar in your newest blog entry?
49 Degrees in Helena this afternoon.

Green HOUSE!
Green HOUSE!
Green HOUSE!!!
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
49 Degrees in Helena this afternoon.

Green HOUSE!
Green HOUSE!
Green HOUSE!!!


Downright warm there......
.. Freezing Rain Advisory in effect from 9 am to 6 PM CST
Sunday...

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a Freezing
Rain Advisory... which is in effect from 9 am to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* Timing... from mid Sunday morning until late Sunday afternoon.

* Ice accumulations... total ice accumulations of one to two tenths
of an inch can be expected.

* Impacts... the freezing rain will create icy conditions on
untreated roadways... bridges and overpasses... resulting in
hazardous driving conditions. In addition... sidewalks and
parking lots could will likely become slick... making walking
difficult.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Freezing Rain Advisory means that periods of freezing rain or
freezing drizzle will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving.



Auten
A huge warm up for the beginning of next week guarantees the central and eastern portions of the United States will end up at least 1C above average despite the brutal cold that has encompassed the area for the past week.

Meanwhile, portions of the West will finish many degrees below average.



10 Degrees next week... ARG! I want more snow :(
From Nexsat View of storm

hi all got a new laptop
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all got a new laptop


i don't think there is many here taz u know they got better things to do then hang out here all day all the time

congrats on new laptop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111000

Hey Taz,
Nice count there......
Quoting PedleyCA:
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111000

Hey Taz,
Nice count there......



thanks
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all got a new laptop


I hope your old one was completely non-functional, otherwise you should feel very guilty for wastefulness and adding to our climate problem just for a little dopamine boost from shiny new possessions. :D
Quoting PedleyCA:
Life is Good again -The Auto Racing Season started - 24 Hours of Daytona

For everyone else:

There are 126 days until
Saturday, 1 June 2013.


Enjoy the race ,the last couple of hours is on here will be watching






Met Eireann starting to hit the Panic button Warning issued for Monday ....Its going to be a long week

Weather Warning

Issued at 26 January 2013 - 18:57
Weather Advisory

There is a high probability that southwest to west winds will increase to mean speeds and gusts that have the potential to cause damage, in many parts of the country, during Monday 28th January.
Exceptionally high waves affecting Atlantic coasts, also on Monday, will bring the threat of coastal flooding at times of high tide.
Valid from 09:00 to 24:00 Monday 28/1/2013
Huh... funny to see how powerful this storm supposedly is when it really seems like nothing, at least by Icelandic standards, at least here in Reykjavík. Got some barely-freezing snow while I was at a concert last night and the roads were really slick, so I drove back to Hafnarfjörður at 30-50kmh instead of the usual 60-100kmh. Today it's just been occasional drizzle and average winds - I even went on a short hike in Hvalfjörður. Maybe it's just hitting primarily further east?

The warm seclusion process is well under way, with very few 1000-500 mb thickness contours crossing isobars. It'll be gradual weakening from here on out.





Cloudsat of Atlantic low.
1900~ The wind map doesn't have the yellows of earlier. We called that one:)
Fresh ASCAT
by wed overnight lows will be 30 degrees or more above normal

Quoting FLWaterFront:


It may wind up as less impressive than first thought. It is possible.

1. The peak energy with the system may arrive in the Mississippi/Arkansas
area during the middle of the night or the wee hours of Wednesday morning,
and not during the maximum diurnal heating time of the afternoon.

2. By the time the maximum daytime heating could take effect, the energy with the system may be positioned over the bumpy and still-cooled ground of NE Alabama and central and East Tennessee, where the cooler and more stable air pooling over and east of the Appalachians may inhibit maximum severe Wx potential.

3. Further south and where the air will be warmer, dew points will be higher and surface instability will be greater, the upper level wind profile will not be nearly as conducive for the development of super cells and severe Wx in general. It's the infamous, "The main energy with this system passed to our north" scenario.

4. I could be totally, completely and absolutely wrong as wrong could be. We'll see.


We shall see. The models keep wanting to speed up the arrival in central Alabama. Looks like maybe midnight to 0300 Wednesday. As you say, at least it will not arrive during peak heating, which should be near 80 with dewpoints in the high 60's. Not a lot of forcing except for the predicted jet streak that's supposed round the wave of low pressure that will form somewhere west of us. Not a classic severe weather outbreak but, if we get any and it's at night, the effect is worse than the same storms during the day, since we won't see any tornadoes that form. The last front bought nothing, not even any cold air, and we've been warmer than normal already for the last several days. It's been really strange here, with two periods of much above normal temperatures ending with no severe storms. Our luck won't last forever.
Quoting Slamguitar:


I hope your old one was completely non-functional, otherwise you should feel very guilty for wastefulness and adding to our climate problem just for a little dopamine boost from shiny new possessions. :D




poof you go too my Ignore list


Quoting PedleyCA:
Life is Good again -The Auto Racing Season started - 24 Hours of Daytona

For everyone else:

There are 126 days until
Saturday, 1 June 2013.

Now we just need NASCAR to start with speed weeks.

Winter weather advisories and freezing rain advisories are in effect for parts of the Mid West and Great Lakes. I will probably be under some advisory tomorrow.
The cold front is intensifying northwest of Hawaii:

Moisture is slowly increasing throughout Hawaii ahead of an approaching cold front:

Quoting Skyepony:
1900~ The wind map doesn't have the yellows of earlier. We called that one:)

Well, you were the one who called that. I merely agreed with you. :P
Iceland radar:

TC Thirteen:

If you've not been outside to see the moon yet, and are in a position to actually, physically see it (clear skies), then I suggest going to look at it. Tonight's full moon is what they call a Full Wolf Moon. It's nothing rare, but still interesting to look at.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you've not been outside to see the moon yet, and are in a position to actually, physically see it (clear skies), then I suggest going to look at it. Tonight's full moon is what they call a Full Wolf Moon. It's nothing rare, but still interesting to look at.

I saw it an hour or so ago, it was big and and an orange yellowish color.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you've not been outside to see the moon yet, and are in a position to actually, physically see it (clear skies), then I suggest going to look at it. Tonight's full moon is what they call a Full Wolf Moon. It's nothing rare, but still interesting to look at.


Here's two photo's I took last night just before the fireworks went off.



Ex-tropical cyclone brings rain to NSW

HUNDREDS of emergency services personnel in northern NSW are preparing for destructive winds and flash flooding as ex-cyclone Oswald moves south from Queensland.

A severe weather warning was issued for the Northern Rivers, the mid-north coast, Northern Tablelands and parts of the Hunter and North West Slopes and Plains on Sunday.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said Oswald was likely to bring damaging winds of up to 110km/h as well as dangerous surf and heavy rain.

The strong gusts were forecast to develop on Sunday afternoon (AEDT) in parts of the Northern Rivers and Northern Tablelands.

The BoM said downpours could lead to flash flooding at the Northern Rivers, the mid-north coast, the Northern Tablelands and parts of the Hunter and North West Slopes and Plains.

In the 48 hours to 10am on Sunday, more than 100mm of rain had fallen around the Bellinger River at Thora, with another 100 to 150mm expected over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Fire and Rescue NSW said a helicopter was working with the State Emergency Service (SES) around 11am to rescue campers stranded by rising waters near Grafton.

Meanwhile Upper Rous River near the Queensland border had more than 200mm of rain while Coffs Harbour had recorded 164mm in the past 24 hours.

Local SES controller Bob White said people were getting ready in Coffs Harbour, with extra swiftwater rescue teams on hand.

"We have had people coming to us already, collecting sandbags," he told the ABC.

"It's great that people are thinking ahead and being a little bit proactive, and not waiting until the last minute."

He said crews were preparing for a repeat of the 2009 floods, when 90 rescues were made.

"Rather than just leave it to a very small number of people who worked very very hard back in 2009, we're bringing extra resources into the area, so that we can be fully prepared and offer protection to the community," he said.

© ABC 2013
**********************************************


Rooftop rescues as Qld floods hit Gympie

RESIDENTS in the Gympie area, north of Brisbane, are being rescued from rooftops while one person remains missing in floodwaters.

The Mary River is expected to peak at 17 metres - just shy of levels reached during floods that devastated the region in 2011.

The centre of Gympie is expected to flood later on Sunday.

Mayor Ron Dyne told AAP western locations including Midgee and Sexton had been the worst hit.

"We have people on rooftops in Widgee and Sexton and we have a swiftwater rescue team currently deployed in Widgee," he said.

Mr Dyne said a man and a woman had already been saved in the rescue effort, but a 27-year-old man was still missing after the trio tried to cross the swollen Widgee Creek near Gympie.

The water rescue crew that went to the group's aid lost their boat and gear at one point during the operation.

Mr Dyne said businesses in the CBD near the Mary River were expecting flooding.

"At this stage, we've got major concerns," he said.

"Everything's occurred rather rapidly given the amount of rain we've had and so forth."

Mr Dyne said roads into Gympie, including south on the Bruce Highway, were cut and the town was experiencing localised flooding in several areas.

The mayor urged residents to keep out of harm's way.

"Get off the roads, stay at home, don't go rubbernecking around to have a look because there are major concerns," he said.

"Powerlines are down, there's trees across roads and the normal inconveniences and we don't need to see swiftwater rescue teams deployed for people who are being foolish trying to cross flooded streams."

Mr Dyne said local disaster management groups would meet later on Sunday.

© ABC 2013
***********************************************

Wild storms hit Canberra

Emergency services in the ACT are responding to hundreds of calls for help after a severe storm swept across the area last night.

The storm dumped up to 65 millimetres of rain in some areas of Canberra with strong winds and rain causing flash flooding and downing power lines.

Some suburbs in the capital's north are still waiting for power to be restored after 20,000 homes lost power.

Emergency services received more than 400 calls for help, mostly for flooding, fallen trees and leaking roofs.

The priority calls were dealt with overnight and crews will get to work on the remainder today.

The Calvary Public Hospital in Canberra also lost power for about 20 minutes when its backup generator failed to kick in.

Calvary Hospital's director of nursing and midwifery, Kerrie Hayes, says the generator failed because the boiler room flooded.

She says there are always procedures in place if the power fails, but a review of what happened is underway.

"On Tuesday morning when everyone is back at work we will have a formal debrief and a formal review," she said.

"We'll be working on actions to make sure that the next time we have this quick inundation and big storm that flooding doesn't occur and that our auxiliary power kicks in as it's supposed to."

No surgery was being performed at the time and no patients were adversely affected.


© ABC 2013
Here comes Ex-TC Oswald.....



Severe Weather Warning
for destructive winds, damaging winds, heavy rain and damaging surf
for people in the Metropolitan, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Northern Tablelands, Illawarra and Central Tablelands forecast districts
Issued at 12:58 pm EDT on Sunday 27 January 2013.
VERY HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WINDS AND SURF OVER NORTHEASTERN NSW DURING THE LONG WEEKEND.

Weather Situation
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald currently over eastern Queensland is moving slowly south-southeast towards NSW.

Very heavy surf which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion is forecast for the Metropolitan, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast and Hunter forecast districts and parts of the Illawarra forecast district. Beach conditions in these areas could be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

Destructive winds around 80 km/h with peak gusts of 140 km/h are forecast for parts of the Northern Rivers forecast district, mostly near the coast.

Damaging winds around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the Metropolitan, Mid North Coast, Hunter and Northern Tablelands forecast districts.

Thunderstorms and heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are forecast for the Metropolitan, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Northern Tablelands and Illawarra forecast districts and parts of the Central Tablelands forecast district.

In last 24h till 9am Sunday 203 mm has been recorded at Upper Rous River (Hopkins Ck), Mullumbimby 136 mm, Lowanna west of Coffs Harbour 164 mm.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Sunday.
Had a lot of fun with the family in the circus today. love it! having those memories that are going to stay forever :). right now its a beautiful night with a few raindrops.
Garry continues to weaken over the South Pacific:

Remnants of Cyclone Oswald are lingering over eastern Australia, bring gusty winds and heavy rain:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you've not been outside to see the moon yet, and are in a position to actually, physically see it (clear skies), then I suggest going to look at it. Tonight's full moon is what they call a Full Wolf Moon. It's nothing rare, but still interesting to look at.



Also known as Quiet Moon, Snow Moon, Cold Moon, Chaste Moon, Disting Moon & Moon of Little Winter. Beautiful here.


I've got January moon lore in the comments of my blog. Clicking my handle will take anyone there that wants to see it.
24hr rainfall totals to 9am this morning for between Mackay to Bundaberg courtesy of the BOM showing again massive totals toward the south east Thanks to ex Tropical Cyclone Oswald, with

Gladstone (176mms),
Captain Crk (275mms),
Boolaroo tops (467mms),
Brovinia (242mms),
Springfield (314mms),
Miriam Vale (237mms),
Bucca Weir (349mms) &
Bundaberg (252mms)


Um........ That is not a stick, that is a very deadly Brown Snake seeking refuge on the window of a flooded car. A bite from that snake, you'll be dead within an hour.

Photo courtesy of State Emergency Service Queensland
Thannks, Dr. Masters. Yet another great blog!
Enjoying the moon tonight.
Now if I can just get to sleep...
Never enter floodwater (even if the pub is flooded).

Long Time no see. How are you. getting any rain?
Quoting AussieStorm:


Um........ That is not a stick, that is a very deadly Brown Snake seeking refuge on the window of a flooded car. A bite from that snake, you'll be dead within an hour.

Photo courtesy of State Emergency Service Queensland


Well, the snake is well named, considering its color. Wouldn't it have more aptly been named the Brown Snake of Death? ... Or, Brown is in Town So Don't Stick Around Snake? ... Something a little more descriptive of its capabilities as well as its color, perhaps???? ... I mean, you do get tourist there, right?
Quoting Chicklit:


I thought you lived in Tx, my bad ..... That looks very cold.
Quoting PedleyCA:


I thought you lived in Tx, my bad ..... That looks very cold.

East Central Florida Ped...it's gorgeous here.
What a night. Beautiful. According to our nearby weather station, it's 61 F.
Wish my camera could have caught those clouds around the moon better but that's the best we could do.
Anyway, off to try my luck at sleep.
Quite an interesting system in the Atlantic.
Glad no one's getting torn up by it so far.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Well, the snake is well named, considering its color. Wouldn't it have more aptly been named the Brown Snake of Death? ... Or, Brown is in Town So Don't Stick Around Snake? ... Something a little more descriptive of its capabilities as well as its color, perhaps???? ... I mean, you do get tourist there, right?


I think we have 10 of the top 15 most deadly snakes in the world here. So it doesn't really matter, if you're bitten by a snake, you'll probably die from it unless you're given anti-venom.

Also, that snake is probably a King Brown Snake, King Browns are northern Australian, the Brown Snake is a southern Australian.

This is a fully grown King Brown Snake.



This is a fully grown Brown Snake.
Sarasota nearly full moon has huge blue aura round it! Orion, Sirius and other stars are bright here, grazi!
Ugh, nothing scares me more than snakes...
Army choppers called in as Qld floods

THE Queensland government has asked for army helicopters to be sent in, with the state in the grip of an unfolding flood crisis.

Cities and towns along the central Queensland coast are flooding as the low pressure system that was cyclone Oswald batters the south east corner of the state with cyclonic winds and torrential rain.

Releases from dams that protect the cities of Brisbane and Ipswich are continuing, with falls of up to 300mm expected over the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds gusting to 60 knots are also expected.

Forecasters are expecting conditions "comparable to a high category one cyclone" with wind gusts of 60 knots, or 125kph, in the southeast corner over the next day.

The low pressure system is expected to be over the Sunshine Coast on Sunday afternoon, Brisbane by this evening, and the Gold Coast by late on Sunday night or early on Monday.

It will then move across the border into northern NSW.

The bureau's Queensland weather services manager Richard Wardle says there's a strong chance of more tornadoes like the six that caused severe damage in the Bundaberg region on Saturday and Sunday.

In the state's southeast corner, falls of between 200 and 300mm are expected but that could reach 400mm in some locations, Dr Wardle said.

The central Queensland cities of Gladstone, Bundaberg and Gympie are all experiencing widespread flooding.

There have been dramatic rescues across the region, including in Gympie where the mayor says people had been rescued from rooftops.

There are grave fears for at least one man who remains missing after trying to cross a flooded creek near Gympie on Sunday morning.

Residents of north Bundaberg are being ordered to leave their homes immediately, the ABC reported at midday (AEST), with fears 300 homes will flood and those that don't to be left isolated.

Some residents in south and east Bundaberg also being told to leave, the ABC said.

The Queensland government has asked for army helicopters to be sent in to help, the ABC reported.

And Premier Campbell Newman has called on Prime Minister Julia Gillard to say the state will need help to deal with a crisis spanning many communities simultaneously.

Mr Newman said it was highly likely the army would be called on for more support, particularly in the clean-up phase.

"I know she and her government will provide the support we need," Mr Newman told reporters in the tornado hit community of Bargara near Bundaberg.

"The challenge now is that we've got multiple events going on."

In the central Queensland city of Bundaberg, residents are braced for the Burnett River to peak at levels higher than in 2010/11, when floods caused significant damage to the city.

Up to 200 homes and 100 businesses are expected to flood, and evacuations are being ordered in north Bundaberg, with some residents in the south and east also being told to head to evacuation centres.

At Gympie, south of Bundaberg, residents have been rescued from rooftops, Mayor Ron Dyne told AAP.

And the search is continuing for a 27-year-old man who was swept away while trying to cross the Widgee Creek near Gympie. His two companions were rescued.

The Mary River is expected to peak at 17 metres - just shy of levels reached during floods that devastated the region in 2011.

The river is so swollen that it looks more than a kilometre wide, Gympie local Suzanne Chapman told AAP.

"We're not far off from starting to evacuate," said Ms Chapman, who works at the Royal Hotel in Gympie.

"The sports bar will get a metre or so of water if the river stops at 17 metres but if it goes higher the restaurant will go under. The power hasn't been cut yet but we've been told it might be soon."

At Gladstone, floodwaters appear to be dropping but 900 homes have been evacuated in low lying areas.

And there are reports of homes flooded to their ceilings at Baffle Creek, between Gladstone and Bundaberg.

The Insurance Council of Australia has declared a Queensland-wide catastrophe.

Severe weather is now affecting the Sunshine Coast, and the Moreton Bay Regional Council areas north of Brisbane, causing severe beach erosion and three to four metre swells.

Brisbane city is also being lashed by cyclonic winds gusting above 120kph, and the city's disaster co-ordination centre has been activated.

There are already reports of localised flooding in Brisbane, including in Bayside suburbs.

***********************************************

Evacuation order for north Bundaberg

NORTH Bundaberg is being evacuated after the Burnett River broke its banks.

A disaster declaration now covers most low-lying suburbs of the central Queensland city, giving authorities the power to enforce mandatory evacuations if people refuse to leave.

North Bundaberg residents have been told they have a very short window to get out, with up to 100 homes and businesses already flooded there, the ABC reports.

Several properties have also been inundated in the city's east - some of them the same ones that were hit during the city's 2010-11 floods.

The Burnett River is now expected to peak at 9 metres - well above the levels recorded during the 2010/11 floods.

Evacuation centres have been set up for those forced to leave their homes.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Ugh, nothing scares me more than snakes...

opps, I hope I didn't scare you.
Floods likely to isolate hundreds in NSW

MORE than 500 people are expected to be isolated by floodwaters in northern NSW as ex-tropical cyclone Oswald brings damaging winds and heavy rain to the state.

A severe weather warning was issued for the Northern Rivers, the mid-north coast, Northern Tablelands and parts of the Hunter and North West Slopes and Plains on Sunday as Oswald slowly moved south from Queensland.

State Emergency Service (SES) spokesman Phil Campbell said two motorists had already been rescued from floodwaters on Sunday, with one person caught in their car near the border at Tenterfield and another trapped further south at Grafton.

Meanwhile at around noon (AEDT) a Fire and Rescue NSW (FRNSW) helicopter was helping the SES move campers who had been surrounded by floodwaters near Grafton.

"The initial concern for us will be the potential for flash flooding and the potential for people to get themselves into trouble," Mr Campbell told AAP.

More than 400 SES volunteers were stationed in the north of the state with warnings that Oswald was likely to bring damaging winds of up to 110km/h.

"That wind velocity can cause damage to property and bring down trees and power lines," Mr Campbell said.

"There is also some potential for local destructive winds in the Northern River region."

Once the rain sets in, Mr Campbell said the SES will be monitoring the state's main rivers with moderate to major flooding expected.

On the Bellinger River at Thora in the state's north, a minor flood warning is in place and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is warning that a further 150mm of rain could fall over the next day or two.

Mr Campbell said this was expected to cut off more than 500 people in rural properties slightly upstream at Darkwood.

"They will be isolated for a couple of days so we have asked them to stock up," he said.

The wild weather is expected to move further south on Monday, with strong winds and downpours forecast for Sydney, the SES said.

Motorists travelling on the state's mid north or far north coast are being urged to take extreme care, with reports of heavy rainfall, debris and reduced visibility at some local roads, the NSW Transport Management Centre said.

"Additionally, heavy holiday traffic is also being experienced on the Pacific Highway for motorists travelling southbound approaching the Hexham Bridge, in Newcastle," it said in a statement.
112. etxwx
Tonight's wolf moon just after sunset:
Quoting AussieStorm:


I think we have 10 of the top 15 most deadly snakes in the world here. So it doesn't really matter, if you're bitten by a snake, you'll probably die from it unless you're given anti-venom.

Also, that snake is probably a King Brown Snake, King Browns are northern Australian, the Brown Snake is a southern Australian.

This is a fully grown King Brown Snake.



This is a fully grown Brown Snake.


Not just snakes, Aussie.

This little guy has a reputation of its own. The Funnel Web spider



Along with this friendly face. The RedBack spider.



Then there are these little sea creatures. Such as the Box Jellyfish.

Box Jellyfish

Australia is on my bucket list, but I think I will get a native guide. ... I wish Steve Irwin was still with us. I loved his shows and his attitude.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Not just snakes, Aussie.

This little guy has a reputation of its own. The Funnel Web spider



Along with this friendly face. The RedBack spider.



Then there are these little sea creatures. Such as the Box Jellyfish.

Box Jellyfish

Australia is on my bucket list, but I think I will get a native guide. ... I wish Steve Irwin was still with us. I loved his shows and his attitude.

His Daughter, Bindi and Son, Jack, Are just like him. Yeah We all miss him too.
look at those fangs.. :o
Blue Ring Octopus



Stone Fish



Tiger Snake



Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
look at those fangs.. :o

As always, the female is worse than the male.
Quoting AussieStorm:

His Daughter, Bindi and Son, Jack, Are just like him. Yeah We all miss him too.


I wish Steve would have listened to his own instincts. He said he knew the land creatures and their moves and his reflexes were fast enough to get out of the way when he is land. He said that he did not know the marine creatures as well and knew he would be too slow in the water to avoid their attacks.

I had heard that Bindi and Jack were continuing their dad's work. Good for them! I wish them both the best of luck in their pursuits in life. I hope their dad gave them an important lesson. Do not work outside of your area of comfort and expertise when working with wild animals. How sad that is no longer with us. He was known and loved the world over.
119. etxwx
Here's a pic from this spring of one of our local snakes, commonly called a black or rat snake. (non-poisonous) This one was about a 6 footer and had thoroughly woven himself into the bird netting over my blueberry bush. It took me about 15 minutes to un-weave him and then I let him go out near the woods. The next day he was back and had woven himself into the net again! I disentangled him one more time and gave him a severe talking to before I let him go. He stayed away. We also have rattlers, copperheads, and cottonmouths here, but I'm not near so understanding with them.
Afternoon Aussie, Good Night Everyone Else. Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Sleep Well.
Quoting etxwx:
Here's a pic from this spring of one of our local snakes, commonly called a black or rat snake. (non-poisonous) This one was about a 6 footer and had thoroughly woven himself into the bird netting over my blueberry bush. It took me about 15 minutes to un-weave him and then I let him go out near the woods. The next day he was back and had woven himself into the net again! I disentangled him one more time and gave him a severe talking to before I let him go. He stayed away. We also have rattlers, copperheads, and cottonmouths here, but I'm not near so understanding with them.


We have all 4 of the deadly snakes in Texas and I have seen them all. Face to face. The Copperhead is the hardest to spot. It blends in perfectly with its background.
122. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We have all 4 of the deadly snakes in Texas and I have seen them all. Face to face. The Copperhead is the hardest to spot. It blends in perfectly with its background.


Oh, I forgot about the coral snake . I dang near stepped on the coral snake lookalike milk snake (Scarlet king snake) one night this fall. I had to stop and quickly think of the rhyme:
Red and yellow kill a fellow,
Red and black, venom lack.





Quoting PedleyCA:
Afternoon Aussie, Good Night Everyone Else. Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Sleep Well.

Good Afternoon.

Sydney Radar....



Brisbane Radar....



Australia View.....

Quoting etxwx:


Oh, I forgot about the coral snake . I dang near stepped on the coral snake lookalike milk snake (Scarlet king snake) one night this fall. I had to stop and quickly think of the rhyme:
Red and yellow kill a fellow,
Red and black, venom lack.







Never heard that one, I learned it
Red and yellow, deadly fellow.
Red and black, friendly jack.
Quoting AussieStorm:

His Daughter, Bindi and Son, Jack, Are just like him. Yeah We all miss him too.


One thing I do also love about the UK...lack of deadly spiders! Growing up with black widows everywhere (and supposedly scorpions and tarantulas [I know all tarantulas aren't deadly] but never saw nay of those) I hate poisonous spiders. Here, I let pretty much the daddy long legs live free...garden variety spiders that look scarier will take outsoide etc...don't mind spiders if I know they're not totally lethal! Have adders here...never seen one, though apparantly can be found round here. Never saw anything but red racers growing up though (though did find BIG non-red racer snake skins in the yard occassionally!).

Anyway, this storm Dr Master is talking about in the blog, must be bringing this wild weather right now. Have had below feezing temps the last week, winter wonderland at my place all the last week, and so pretty. But last night the rain and milder weather came in and started to melt it all (causing a glacier effect on the high elevation, sloping farmland around my place, funky!)...and tonight driving home from work...never had heavy wind and constant, proper torrential driving rain all the way home for my 35-40 minute drive from work. You usually go through a few heavy spells, but was all the way and just mad. My daughter said she surely heard thunder earlier in the night too. All the snow gone now boohoo! But wow, even wild for here, and this super heavy rain with all the snow melt, probably will be very bad in the valleys. The warm front hitting the cold air is causing soem very heavy...been moving inland from last night...already changed to rain here by the time was off work Fri night, but was snowing good on the way to work Fri in front of the warm front...but even colder east and has apparently been as mess as they didn't warn people what happens when a wet warm front collides with the very cold air...lots of snow at first, as those in the US know!
Quoting Astrometeor:


Never heard that one, I learned it
Red and yellow, deadly fellow.
Red and black, friendly jack.


Red touches yellow,
dangerous fellow.
Red touches black,
friend to Jack.

or

Red on Black,
Friend of Jack.
Red on Yellow,
Watch out, Fellow.
Quoting etxwx:
Here's a pic from this spring of one of our local snakes, commonly called a black or rat snake. (non-poisonous) This one was about a 6 footer and had thoroughly woven himself into the bird netting over my blueberry bush. It took me about 15 minutes to un-weave him and then I let him go out near the woods. The next day he was back and had woven himself into the net again! I disentangled him one more time and gave him a severe talking to before I let him go. He stayed away. We also have rattlers, copperheads, and cottonmouths here, but I'm not near so understanding with them.


My first pet snake was a rat snake...and was a lil' brat!!! Very aggressive and would somehow nudge out of the terrarium! Took him back to the pet shop and got a ball python instead who was awesome...awwww, was a special lil' guy, always miss that reptile and tell my daughter about him 20 years later! (gave him to a friend when who really fancied him when I moved from California to Colorado...they hit it off too at least, what a cool snake he was and very clever)
Friendly or Deadly??

Has this site been purchased by Animal Planet?
130. etxwx
Quoting Wunderwood:
Has this site been purchased by Animal Planet?


LOL, just kind of a lull in the weather I guess.

I'm out for the rest of the evening, hope everyone has a good night.

I guess I'll be counting snakes instead of sheep tonight. :)
First half of February should be cold across much of the East, especially for the northern half (northern planes across the Great Lakes and into the NE). The polar vortex which is pretty much nonexistent at this point will reform along the backside of an amplifying ridge around Alaska. This will send a nice, fat longwave trough into the East, keeping temperatures below average across the region. The greatest cold (relative to the anomaly) will be in the northern half of the east half of the nation. The SE and South will also be cold for the first week of February. By the second week, however, the SE and South could be looking at above averarge temperatures, as resistance to the longwave trough (ridging) develops in the South. Hard to say how much ridging this region will see at this point because it depends on how the troughing situation evolves beneath the high latitude blocking going on in the Pacific NW and Alaska region.

Here are some different solutions for the 500mb pattern over NA in 300hrs

12z GEFS @300hrs



12z Canadian Ens @300hrs




00z GEFS @300hrs

it may be close to 1am where I am... but i cant sleep :/ sooo I figured I'd jump on... How did u guys start talking about snakes/spiders?
This is 94S

Here's the cloudsat. Click boxes 14 & 15.

Heavy rains in Zimbabwe have seen many people losing their lives and homes. Some villagers expressed shock at the insensitivity of authorities who have turned a blind eye to their plight. For example Tinevimbo Beni, who lives in Mawale village lost two children when the room they were sleeping in caved in. "We have not received any help from any quarter so far. We were hoping that we would receive some sort of assistance," said Beni, standing next to the room where her children perished. "I would like to rebuild my homestead." Another villager Mboneni Sibanda also lost her only two-roomed house which was completely flattened. She, however, escaped harm as she went to seek shelter at a neighbour%u2019s homestead before the house collapsed. In Mawale village alone, more than 15 homesteads were destroyed. Other affected areas include Tshasvingo, Tshitulipasi and Chikwalakwala. Heavy rains started pounding the area on Friday last week and only abated on Tuesday. Beitbridge district administrator Simon Muleya, who also heads the local Civil Protection Unit (CPU), said they had not turned a blind eye to flood victims, but were merely prioritising help to the most affected areas.
Flooding from the Atlantic low.

Large areas of Wales have been hit by flooding as emergency services dealt with hundreds of calls. Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire, Swansea and parts of southeast Wales all suffered floods after a warning of localised flooding was issued by the Environment Agency Wales on Friday night. And there was a further warning of more rain to come, with Wales set to be among the areas worst affected. Chris Burton, a forecaster for MeteoGroup, said temperatures could rise to around 8C today before reaching more than 10C in the south tomorrow, followed by wet and windy weather next week. He said: "Heavy rain will fall across most parts of Britain tonight and into tomorrow morning. "The worst affected areas will be the west of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, which will see up to an inch of rain overnight. "Combined with rapid melting snow it brings a risk of localised flooding." Aled Edwards, 25, of Rhydargaeau, travelled to Llanddowror, Carmarthenshire, on Friday night as a voluntary member of 4x4 Response Wales to help householders caught in the floods. He said: "The water seemed to be running down from the mountains behind the houses. It was just gushing down into these houses. In some places it was 3ft to 4ft deep with water." One homeowner told Aled the floods were the "worst he had ever seen" in the area, while others spoke of the damage to their properties. Aled said: "I spoke to one guy there who said he had almost finished a new build there, and the floods had set him back quite a bit."
Quoting Doppler22:
it may be close to 1am where I am... but i cant sleep :/ sooo I figured I'd jump on... How did u guys start talking about snakes/spiders?


yeah...can't sleep either... I'll be here for a little while
Gaboon Viper....WIKI.....-GaboonViper.Bitis gabonica, commonly known as the Gaboon viper, is a venomous viper species found in the rainforests and savannas of sub-Saharan Africa. This is not only the largest member of the genus Bitis, but also the world's heaviest viperid, and it has the longest fangs (up to 2 inches), and the highest venom yield of any venomous snake. Two subspecies are currently recognized, including the nominate race described here.

The species is also commonly known as butterfly adder, forest puff adder, or swampjack.Pic wont show darn it...
Quoting AussieStorm:
Friendly or Deadly??



That depends. Do heart attacks count?

Added

"The red-bellied black snake is somewhat less venomous than many other Australian snakes, but you're more likely to come across it in urban areas and its bite is certainly no picnic, causing significant illness and requiring medical attention.

Red-bellied blacks are one of the few large venomous snakes still found in the Sydney region, and at 2m-long are capable of eating other snakes. They are not particularly aggressive and will escape from humans if possible, but when threatened will flatten their bodies and hiss loudly.

The venom causes blood-clotting disorder and muscle and nerve damage, enough to knock you off your feet, but rarely deadly. No deaths have been confirmed from bites by this species."

Source
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you've not been outside to see the moon yet, and are in a position to actually, physically see it (clear skies), then I suggest going to look at it. Tonight's full moon is what they call a Full Wolf Moon. It's nothing rare, but still interesting to look at.

Reminds me of that cute Volvo commercial ... implying I suspect, that the vehicle can handle any sort of road conditions.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #31
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
18:00 PM FST January 27 2013
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 23.2S 158.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly GOES visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
90 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization has not changed much past 24 hours. Deep convection displaced to southeast of partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies east of an upper shortwave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good in southeast quadrant of system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on 35nm sheared distance from deep convection edge, yielding DT=2.5. MET=2.0 and PT=2.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 25.2S 156.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 27.8S 152.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
10:00 AM RET January 27 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (1000 hPa) located at 13.6S 63.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.3S 61.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.8S 58.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.1S 54.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 15.9S 52.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
For the last 6 hours, pattern of the system has few evolved. First visible satellite pictures show a partially exposed low level circulation center south of convection that is rejected northward due to moderate southerly vertical wind shear (estimated at 9 knots thanks to 0000z CIMSS data). OSCAT data of yesterday evening and 0350z SSMIS f18 (curved band on 0.3 wrap) suggest that near gale force winds exist in the eastern semi-circle.

System keeps on tracking westward to west southwestward on the northern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the forecast track. System is expected to keep a west southwestward track throughout the next 72 hours (ARPEGE-ALADIN suggest a few more southwestward track). Over this forecast track, the upper level southeastern vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen progressively within the next hours, and to keep on being unfavorable until monday late or tuesday morning. So a significant deepening seems not likely for the next 36 hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides. Therefore, system is expected to regularly strengthen and to undergo the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east northeast

After Wednesday and up to the end of the forecast range, system is expected to slow down and re-curve south southwestward along the eastern Malagasy coastline.

__________________________________________

As long as there is contact, forget about the rest...

**Edit: Link at the bottom is of the 2011 floods! Current flooding is showed in a video montage at the top of this page. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-27/live-wild-w eather-queensland-calls-in-army/4486270

Before and after Queensland flooding pictures. http://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/qld-floods/

Quoting AussieStorm:


Um........ That is not a stick, that is a very deadly Brown Snake seeking refuge on the window of a flooded car. A bite from that snake, you'll be dead within an hour.

Photo courtesy of State Emergency Service Queensland


Australia has no shortage of snake species which are capable of producing death quite quickly.

Along with the Funnel Web spoidah (er.. spider) in the Sydney suburbs, these snakes make it imperative that one always be conscious of where feet and hands are touching or reaching at all times when in Oz.
HAWAII WEATHER REPORT... 81 UPDATED
_______________________________

Heavy rains for Hawaii in the upcoming week..
Sorry, I noticed I did lots of spelling errors...so it's now fixed.


Big wintry mess in the Chicago area
Winter storm Luna (really...moon??)

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HAWAII WEATHER REPORT... 81 UPDATED
_______________________________

Heavy rains for Hawaii in the upcoming week..
Sorry, I noticed I did lots of spelling errors...so it's now fixed.




Did you mean the island of Niihau when you wrote Nihue?

BTW, thanks for posting this.
Quoting Civicane49:


Did you mean the island of Niihau when you wrote Nihue?


yes... forgot that one.

No problem...love doing it
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes... forgot that one.

No problem...love doing it


Keep doing them! :)
Quoting Civicane49:


Keep doing them! :)


sure
Good Morning Folks!..the coffee is perked for when you get here!...have a great day everyone..and has anyone seen that BIG huge full moon in the night skies this week?..cloudless skies down here..you can really see it..simply beautiful...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WITH PERHAPS
A PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH INCH OF ICE...LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH OF SNOW OR SLEET.

* TIMING...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
MORNING ON MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ICING WILL PRODUCE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE SNOW OR SLEET TO ALSO
ACCUMULATE...ADDING TO THE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

JE/BAJ
Quoting Doppler22:
it may be close to 1am where I am... but i cant sleep :/ sooo I figured I'd jump on... How did u guys start talking about snakes/spiders?

The photo I posted at comment 98 started it all.
Indonesia landslides kill 11, 19 missing

TWO landslides triggered by heavy rains killed at least 11 people and left 19 others missing on Indonesia's Sumatra island, officials said on Sunday.

The National Disaster Management Agency said seven people were killed and three people were injured in a landslide in Agam district in West Sumatra province early on Sunday.

"At this point, seven people were found dead and three others were injured... and 18 were missing," agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said in a text message.

Fifteen houses were also buried by the landslide, he added.

Separately, a landslide caused by heavy rains late on Saturday killed four workers at a drilling site belonging to PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy in Kerinci district in Jambi province, the company said in a press release.

"The landslide killed four people, injured five people, and left one person missing. All victims were workers who were drilling," it said.

Floods and landslides are common in Indonesia, which is prone to frequent bursts of heavy rain.

Heavy rain in the capital Jakarta this month caused 32 deaths and at its peak forced nearly 46,000 people to flee their inundated homes, Nugroho told AFP earlier.
Bundaberg set for worst flood in a century

THE battered city of Bundaberg is bracing for one of its worst floods in history as it bears the brunt of ex-tropical cyclone Oswald.

One man is confirmed dead and hundreds of homes and businesses are expected to be inundated on Sunday night as the Burnett River rises towards a peak not seen in the central Queensland town in over a century.

Premier Campbell Newman says at least 300 homes and 100 businesses in Bundaberg will be inundated if the flood peak on Sunday night eclipses the 2010/11 level, as it's expected to do.

Bundaberg Regional Council Mayor Mal Forman says about 40 homes have been flooded and the army has been called in to help evacuate people.

He says Burnett River will peak at 8.5 metres on Sunday night, well above the 7.92m peak of 2010/11.

It will reach a second peak of 9m on Tuesday, when water from the catchments flows downstream.

The only other time on record a flood peak reached 9m was in 1893-94, meaning the town was heading into unknown territory, Mr Forman said.

"It's going to challenge us. It will be our greatest challenge," he told AAP.

"We do ask people to have patience and let us do our job and hopefully we can all get through it with the least amount of damage and hurt."

About 460 people are already in two evacuation centres with many more fleeing to relatives' homes on higher ground, while about 150 businesses have also been evacuated.

Two defence force Blackhawk helicopters are flying in from Townsville to help.

Residents are being told to prepare to spend several nights away from their homes.

Meanwhile, the body of an elderly man was found in the tornado-hit coastal town of Burnett Heads, northeast of Bundaberg, on Sunday morning.

Police said he had fallen overboard from a yacht which had broken from its mooring.

On Saturday afternoon and evening five tornadoes ripped through the coastal region near Bundaberg, injuring more than a dozen people and damaging 250 homes.

Two people were critically injured when a giant pine tree fell on their parked car on the Esplanade at Bargara, and about a dozen more were injured by flying glass and other debris.

Two homes were completely destroyed in the mini-cyclone that struck Burnett Heads.

Community Safety Minister Jack Dempsey, whose electorate takes in the tornado-struck region, said shell-shocked locals told him the tornado sounded like a jet landing and afterwards it looked like a bulldozer had ploughed through the area.

"When the force hit the Esplanade in Bargara it wasn't just smashing things, it actually sucked the air out of the buildings and blew out the windows," he told AAP.

Premier Campbell Newman visited Bundaberg on Sunday morning as part of a tour of disaster-hit regions and later told a press conference of meeting a couple whose home, caravan and car had been significantly damaged.

"My heart goes out to them," he said.

Residents have been warned sewage will be present in floodwaters because the council's sewerage pump stations aren't operating.



news.com.au
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF

For people in the
Southeast Coast and parts of the
Wide Bay and Burnett and
Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts.

Issued at 7:45 pm Sunday, 27 January 2013.

Synoptic Situation:
At 7pm EST, the centre of ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was located approximately 20km south of Chinchilla and 70km west northwest of Dalby. The system was moving southeast at about 20 km/h and is expected to contract into New South Wales on Monday.

Destructive wind gusts in excess of 125km/h, with possible tornado activity, are occurring about the Southeast Coast district near and south of Cape Moreton, extending west into the eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Cape Moreton recorded a wind gust of 125km/h at 2:46pm and again at 6:40pm. Spitfire Channel and Redcliffe recorded a wind gust of 90km/h at 7pm. This activity could cause significant damage or destruction to homes and property in localised areas.

Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding has also contracted south and is now focused over the Southeast Coast district south of Brisbane to the New South Wales border, extending west to include the Great Dividing Range and the Granite Belt. Six hour rainfall accumulations in excess of 100mm are likely. This could lead to rapid river and stream rises. Widespread 24 hour rainfall accumulations in excess of 250mm are likely.

Currently, the heaviest rain is located on radar over the Gold Coast and adjacent hinterland. Mudgeeraba has recorded 140mm in the 3 hours to 7:30pm, while Benobble (near Mt Tamborine) has recorded 111mm and Canungra 105mm. Mount Nebo has recorded 274mm, Upper Springbrook 267mm, Mt Castle 222mm and Dayboro 193mm since 9am.

The area of heavy rain and destructive wind gusts will continue to contract south during the remainder of today and Monday.

Water levels on the morning high tide are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about coastal and island locations from Burnett Heads to the New South Wales border on Monday. The sea level is likely to rise above the normal tide and the exposed beaches will experience damaging waves and flooding of some low lying areas close to the shoreline.

Dangerous surf conditions, with significant beach erosion, are expected along the coast from Burnett Heads to the New South Wales border for the remainder of today and Monday. This includes Hervey Bay and northern parts of Moreton Bay.
Severe Weather Warning
for destructive winds, damaging winds, heavy rain, abnormally high tides and damaging surf
for people in the Metropolitan, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Northern Tablelands, Illawarra and Central Tablelands forecast districts

Issued at 4:14 pm EDT on Sunday 27 January 2013.

VERY HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WINDS AND SURF OVER NORTHEASTERN NSW.
Weather Situation

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald currently located over southern Queensland expected to move rapidly south through eastern New South Wales on Monday to be near Sydney around midnight on Monday.

Abnormally high tides which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas and very heavy surf which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion are forecast for the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast expected to extend to Hunter, Metropolitan and Illawarra forecast districts during Monday. Beach conditions in these areas will be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

Destructive winds around 80 km/h with peak gusts of 140 km/h are forecast for parts of the Northern Rivers forecast district. Destructive winds are expected to ease gradually during Monday morning.

Damaging winds around 60 km/h with peak gusts of 100 km/h are forecast for Mid North Coast and Northern Tablelands expected to extend to Metropolitan and Hunter forecast districts during Monday.

Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is falling in Northern Rivers, Northern Tablelands, Mid North Coast districts and is forecast to extend to the Hunter overnight and to the Metropolitan, Central Tablelands and Illawarra forecast districts by Monday afternoon.

Heavy rain is expected to ease in the Northern River district during Monday morning and in Mid-North cost in the afternoon.

Since 9am Sunday 99 mm has been recorded at Hopkins Ck (near Mullumbimby), 70 mm in Coffs Harbour and Comboyne.
QPS Media Unit ‏@QPSmedia
ENERGEX: 128,000 homes without power in South East. Many areas won't have it restored until tomorrow due to dangerous conditions.
Madagascar could be in big trouble if this becomes reality.

48hrs


240hrs
Toowoomba




Brisbane River, Brisbane.





G'morning all. Popping in for a sec to check the coffee and wish everyone a good day. I'm out the door to the airport in about half an hour from now on my way to Breck for a week of skiing. I'll report the weather from there for the next 6 days!

54F on da Bayou Grande this am.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morning all. Popping in for a sec to check the coffee and wish everyone a good day. I'm out the door to the airport in about half an hour from now on my way to Breck for a week of skiing. I'll report the weather from there for the next 6 days!

54F on da Bayou Grande this am.

Safe flight mate, Enjoy your break. Stay warm. Don't eat yellow snow, lol.
SPC adds a slight risk area but they say can go up to moderate risk later.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY
FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CNTRL AND NERN
TX...NRN LA...ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SERN MO...AND EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE MS RIVER FROM IL TO MS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
OVERLY DETAILED REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF THIS EVENT...THE
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...TX TO IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NOT SO PHASED DEPICTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
SCENARIOS INDICATE A MOIST BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED FROM TX NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
COMPENSATED FOR BY RELATIVELY RAPID ONSET OF INTENSE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO NEAR ARLATEX BY
AROUND 00Z. DEEP CONVECTION WILL ERUPT ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF
THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EVER INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/FLOW.
EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE
IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013

Great Planes forecast: Kansas City is drought stricken.


A chance of showers, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 62. South southeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South southwest wind 11 to 16 mph becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Monday A slight chance of showers after 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday Night A chance of showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tuesday A chance of showers before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7am and 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morning all. Popping in for a sec to check the coffee and wish everyone a good day. I'm out the door to the airport in about half an hour from now on my way to Breck for a week of skiing. I'll report the weather from there for the next 6 days!

54F on da Bayou Grande this am.
have a safe trip and have a great time my friend!..
looks like a cool front gets here thursday,not too bad though..only down 10 degree's but cold mornings once again
looks like Texas is ok weather wise................
Quoting LargoFl:
morning all, Fog really thick in zephyrhills fl this am. Largo, i will take the cooler nights instead of those hot humid ones.
Quoting severstorm:
morning all, Fog really thick in zephyrhills fl this am. Largo, i will take the cooler nights instead of those hot humid ones.
yeah i hear ya..my dogs love the cool mornings...
Sure are alot of ICE storms this winter lately huh........URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
459 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

...FREEZING RAIN WILL PRODUCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...

ILZ012>014-020-022-023-033-INZ001-002-010-011-019 -271915-
/O.COR.KLOT.ZR.Y.0001.130127T1700Z-130127T2200Z/
KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-IROQUOIS-L AKE IN-PORTER-
NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OSWEGO...
JOLIET...KANKAKEE...WATSEKA...GARY...VALPARAISO.. .MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER...FOWLER
459 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013 /559 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013/

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST /NOON
EST/ THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST /5 PM EST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF
SLEET AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE TO MID AFTERNOON. BY EARLY EVENING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH JUST
RAIN OCCURRING FROM EARLY EVENING ON INTO THE NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER
IN THE DAY. BY LATER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE FREEZING WITH JUST RAIN OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ON INTO THE NIGHT.

* OTHER IMPACTS...PAVEMENT AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING...SO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON
CONTACT AND RESULT IN ICY AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS. SIDEWAYS AND WALKWAYS COULD ALSO TURN TO
SHEETS OF ICE MAKING WALKING DIFFICULT AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ON ICY ROADS.

&&

$$
alot of fog north of me...................
I cant believe the flooding in australia, amazing pics there aussie..
so far so good in the states this morning..............
Quoting LargoFl:
I cant believe the flooding in australia, amazing pics there aussie..

Queensland is almost finished with Ex-Oswald. My state is next, all Weatherzone says is my area is expecting 80mm+ (3.15in). Places up in Queensland have had over 600mm(23.6in) in about 50hrs. Thankfully Ex-Oswald has increased his speed and wont be able to dump much more than 100-200mm in the next 3 days.
Goodnight all
Many records in this century :( too bad
...THE
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.



QPF AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM LATEST EC AND
GFS MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUATION AND/OR RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION
ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE FRONT AMIDST INTENSE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.
WHILE CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE RISK AREA WILL REMAIN LOW...EXPECT
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING TO BECOME SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE.

G-night Aussie!
Good Morning All..

Wow..That ET Low is huge..
Current GFS Sea Level Pressure Model Image..



Current ECMWF Sea Pressure Model Image..

Winter Storm Luna is beginning in earnest across the Midwest. All those pink squares with a raindrop icon and ">" sign indicate locations where ice has accumulated on roads, sidewalks, and elevated surfaces but not exact measurement is known.



NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day

Comet McNaught Over Chile
Image Credit & Copyright: St%uFFFDphane Guisard

Explanation: Comet McNaught of 2007 has been, so far, the most photogenic comet of our time. After making quite a show in the northern hemisphere in early 2007 January, the comet moved south and developed a long and unusual dust tail that dazzled southern hemisphere observers. In this image, Comet McNaught was captured above Santiago, Chile. The bright comet dominates on the left while part of its magnificent tail spreads across the entire frame. From this vantage point in the Andes Mountains, one looks up toward Comet McNaught and a magnificent sky, across at a crescent moon, and down on clouds, atmospheric haze, and the city lights. The current year -- 2013 -- holds promise to be even better for comets than 2007. In early March, Comet PANSTARRS is on track to become visible to the unaided eye, while at the end of the year Comet ISON shows possibilities that include casting a tail that spreads across the sky, breaking up, and even becoming one of the brightest comets in recorded history.
GFS ACCUM SNOW 120Hrs Out..


GFS ACCUM SNOW 96Hrs Out..


NE WRF SFC ACCUM SNOWFALL 48Hrs Out..
192. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:
Wow..That ET Low is huge..
Current GFS Sea Level Pressure Model Image..



Current ECMWF Sea Pressure Model Image..



I know it is, My countrys met office has issued warnings for this evening through to tuesday morning and yesterday was horrid. Getting a little respite right now but will be hunkering down for the next few days ,its going to be a long week
193. VR46L
Quoting VR46L:


I know it is, My countrys met office has issued warnings for this evening through to tuesday morning and yesterday was horrid. Getting a little respite right now but will be hunkering down for the next few days ,its going to be a long week


I wish you best of luck VR46L..
It looks like this one means business..
Is sooo large that I would venture to guess that it would cover most of the US conus..
Stay safe my friend.. :)
195. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


I wish you best of luck VR46L..
It looks like this one means business..
Is sooo large that I would venture to guess that it would cover most of the US conus..
Stay safe my friend.. :)


Yeah its huge , Thank you very much !! But at least is 10ºF warmer than it was last week .lol
Quoting VR46L:


I know it is, My countrys met office has issued warnings for this evening through to tuesday morning and yesterday was horrid. Getting a little respite right now but will be hunkering down for the next few days ,its going to be a long week
stay safe over there ok
chicago area in for some weather next couple of days....
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
16:00 PM RET January 27 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (1000 hPa) located at 13.7S 62.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60-70 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.3S 60.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.7S 57.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.0S 54.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.2S 51.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
Since 0600z this morning, deep convection has moved more away from the low level circulation center due to persistent moderate southerly vertical wind shear. The vortex is well visible on satellite imagery. Latest ASCAT and OSCAT pictures do not allow to calibrate the winds, but it is likely that near gale force winds still exist in the eastern semi-circle.

System has accelerated by keeping a westward to west southwestward track on the northwestern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures.

Available nwp models are in rather good agreement for the forecast track. System is expected to keep a quite fast west southwestward track throughout the next 48-60 hours (ARPEGE-ALADIN and UKMO suggest a few more south-westward track). Over this forecast track, the upper level southeastern then east southeastern vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen progressively within the next hours, and to keep on being unfavorable until Monday late or Tuesday morning for a significant deepening (intensity should oscillate between 25 and 30 knots.)

Tuesday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides. Therefore, system is expected to regularly strengthen and to undergo the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east northeast.

Therefore from Wednesday, system is expected to slow down and re-curve south southwestward to move along the eastern Malagasy coastline up to the end of forecast period. Intensification should continue with environmental conditions remaining favorable.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #32
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER GARRY (09F)
21:00 PM FST January 27 2013
======================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Garry (997 hPa) located near 23.5S 158.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has not changed much past 24 hours. Deep convection displaced to southeast of partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies east of an upper shortwave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good in southeast quadrant of system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on 70 NM sheared distance from strong temperature gradient, giving DT=1.5. MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak number based on Dvorak constraints.

Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastwards, weakening it further.

This is the final tropical cyclone disturbance on TC GARRY.
good,the drought area's getting some rain finally...
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
21:00 PM FST January 27 2013
=================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (1001 hPa) located at 11.0S 169.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-satellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. Deep convection has increased in the northern and eastern quadrant in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderate shear environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastwards with slight intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone is LOW.

System #2
----------

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11F (1001 hPa) located at 22.0S 179.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-spectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization is poor. Convection has increased in the southern and eastern quadrant in the last 18 hours. System lies in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up this system and moves it southward with slight intensification.
rainy set up for most of next week,they need the rains..
So maybe I will get my squall line... :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So maybe I will get my squall line... :)
..yes maybe..keep alert for tornado's next couple of days..good luck with getting the rains
northeast gets snow in a week.....................
THREATS: Clearly the biggest risk is a line of severe storms with potential for damaging, straight line winds. This line will race across Alabama with strong dynamic forcing, and has the potential to bring widespread winds of over 40 mph, with severe criteria winds in some places (58 mph or higher). With the forecast LCL heights and helicity values, isolated tornadoes will be possible in any discrete cells that form ahead of the line. Forecast model soundings show a capping inversion early Wednesday morning; hopefully if the squall line (QLCS) comes through early in the day (when the air is more stable) it will limit the tornado threat, even if that does happen we sure can’t rule out a tornado or two.
warm by me until that front gets here end of next week..
ALABAMA.................CAUTION;Severe thunderstorms possible late Tuesday Night into Wednesday
FOLKS IN MISSISSIPPI PLEASE PAY ATTENTION..............
NAM hinting at a surface low!
I hope it pans out


Some good news from Climate Progress.

Wind Beats Out Natural Gas To Become Top Source Of New Electricity Capacity For 2012

By Jeff Spross on Jan 22, 2013 at 4:30 pm

Through June of 2012, renewable energy was right behind natural gas in terms of the most new energy generating capacity being installed in the United States, with wind making up most of the renewables push. And now Business Insider has flagged the numbers for the remainder of the year.

Last week, they reported that wind ultimately pulled ahead of natural gas to become the leading installer of new capacity in 2012, at 10,689 total megawatts.

Those numbers came from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s report on the trends and highlights in U.S. energy for the past year. According to FERC’s update, natural gas installed 8,746 megawatts of new capacity, coal installed 4,510 new megawatts, and solar came in fourth with 1,476 new megawatts.
BIG NEWS NEXT WEEK IS ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES...
Tues-wens are going to be very active days in here huh..
so far it looks like this severe weather is going to miss florida..I dont see any advance warnings for us yet
Quoting LargoFl:
Tues-wens are going to be very active days in here huh..

Looks to be interesting come Wed for Alabama. Although I beleive that the Tornado Threat will be close to the AL/GA state line going towards Atlanta.... I do know it looks to be Storming here all along the North Gulf Coast....


Taco :o)
gee this is going to be an east coast storm..4-8 days..
NAM shows WELL over 1100 j/kg CAPE so I expect as the event nears other models may follow.

A surface low would do wonders in increasing the severity of this system

ECMWF shows 500-700 j/kg but a very weak surface low.
The GFS does not have any kind of meaningful surface low.
folks please be careful tues-wens..those 60-80mph straightline winds can really do some damage all by themselves..gulf coast states from texas to georgia plse pay attention to your local warnings ok
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NAM shows WELL over 1100 j/kg CAPE so I expect as the event nears other models may follow.


I agree with you on this. I was just checking out the NAM and looks to be right.... I just hope everyone keep a close eye out for what is coming Tue and Wed....

Taco :o)
223. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
so far it looks like this severe weather is going to miss florida..I dont see any advance warnings for us yet


Largo there is a little of the western Panhandle of Florida under threat of Thunder storms for 29th-30th

THIS BEING SAID...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BEGUN TO INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SURFACE FRONT WHERE THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE PRESENT. IF A LARGE COLD
POOL DEVELOPS WITH THE SQUALL LINE...WE WILL SEE A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
EARLIER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. AS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE ACTUALLY INDICATED A CAP OF WARM AIR
ALOFT JUST BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE AT 750MB...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY VALUES REALIZED. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A
HISTORY LATELY OF NOT REALIZING ACTUAL INSTABILITY VALUES OVER THE
PAST FEW EVENTS. PUTTING ALL THE PIECES TOGETHER...A SQUALL
LINE/QLCS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME...WITH
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...YOU JUST CANNOT IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS
FORMING IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RIGHT-TURNING
HODOGRAPHS
Quoting VR46L:


Largo there is a little of the western Panhandle of Florida under threat of Thunder storms for 29th-30th

thanks, i guess by monday the warnings will go up there also
look how close the lines are........
yes the NAM has it also,this week be careful folks.....
228. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks, i guess by monday the warnings will go up there also


Aye Probably

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY
FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CNTRL AND NERN
TX...NRN LA...ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SERN MO...AND EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE MS RIVER FROM IL TO MS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
OVERLY DETAILED REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF THIS EVENT...THE
SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...TX TO IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NOT SO PHASED DEPICTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
SCENARIOS INDICATE A MOIST BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED FROM TX NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
COMPENSATED FOR BY RELATIVELY RAPID ONSET OF INTENSE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO NEAR ARLATEX BY
AROUND 00Z. DEEP CONVECTION WILL ERUPT ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF
THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EVER INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/FLOW.
EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS
FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE
IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013
well this is it for me..see you all later........
Quoting LargoFl:


At least the Threat will be gone by our next Mardi Gras Parade for Thursday night... Although it will be a lot cooler but warming back up by Saturday....


Taco :o)
ok Everyone have a Great Day and I'll check back in later own to see if any changes happen....

Taco :o)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NAM hinting at a surface low!
I hope it pans out


Perhaps the NAM also hinting at 100knot 500mb wind and a negative tilt. Tornado ingredients.
Those of us in Baltimore would really rather not have a big snow on Feb 3.
We'll have too much celebrating to do.
Invest 13 Southern Hemisphere..



97P invest Southern Hemisphere..



Garry..

237. etxwx
Good morning all. Sunny and warm this morning, with a forecast high of 77F. I'm trying mightily to resist the "too early" garden urges brought on by this weather. With gardens on my mind, this locally produced food article caught my eye. It would certainly be beneficial if more regions developed local food networks.
Hope everyone has a nice relaxing Sunday.

Doubling Local Food in Vermont
by Rachel Carter - Cornell Small Farms Program

Excerpt: The Vermont Farm to Plate (F2P) Network is relocalizing food production and distribution in a statewide collaborative effort to rebalance the food system. A network of over 160 organizations encompassing all types and scales of agricultural-related production and processing are working together to execute the Farm to Plate Strategic Plan.

In 2009, the ‘Farm to Plate Investment Program’ was signed into legislation by then Governor Jim Douglas. The legislation tasked the Vermont Sustainable Jobs Fund with the creation of a ten year ‘Farm to Plate Strategic Plan’ to increase economic development in Vermont’s food and farm sector; create jobs in the food and farm economy; and improve access to healthy local food for all Vermonters. An economic impact analysis showed that every 5% increase in the consumption of locally produced food translates to at least $197 million in additional annual output and 1,700 new jobs. By supporting instead of duplicating existing efforts through a cross-pollinating network approach, the Farm to Plate Network is working to strengthen Vermont’s working landscape, build the resilience of farms, improve environmental quality, and increase local food access for all Vermonters.


More info here.
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks, i guess by monday the warnings will go up there also
Quoting VR46L:


Aye Probably
Your terminology is incorrect. Just so there is not confusion by anyone reading the comments... Severe warnings are issued by local NWS offices as an event occurs - severe t-storm, tornado, suspected tornado. SPC identifies severe risk potential and adjusts that potential up to and during an event, and they issue severe weather watches - severe tstorm and tornado watches - as the weather becomes imminent.

A convective outlook may identify a "slight" or greater risk area in FL panhandle by Monday or later, but severe warnings will not be in the picture until and unless this severe system develops and moves that direction.

The SPC's severe risk areas have been inching west and now have spread NE. Those in the southern plains into the upper midwest and parts of the southeast would be wise to keep an eye on pending Tuesday weather. And those downstream (east) of whatever develops, keep an eye on what will head your way.
This happened today to me...it was 5F outside...



Green lights on a 40 mph road... there is a railroad crossing and all of a sudden I see the gates coming down with the flashing red light WHEN THE GREEN TRAFFIC LIGHT WAS STILL THERE !!!

I had to make such a violent stop...feel bad for my car.. :(
241. wxmod
The last 24 readings of air quality in Beijing China. Make sure your retirement isn't invested in China!
BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-28-2013 00:00; PM2.5; 340.0; 390; Hazardous
1h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 23:00; PM2.5; 318.0; 368; Hazardous
2h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 22:00; PM2.5; 306.0; 356; Hazardous
3h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 21:00; PM2.5; 329.0; 379; Hazardous
4h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 20:00; PM2.5; 317.0; 367; Hazardous
5h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 19:00; PM2.5; 314.0; 364; Hazardous
6h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 18:00; PM2.5; 300.0; 350; Hazardous
7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 17:00; PM2.5; 288.0; 338; Hazardous
8h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 16:00; PM2.5; 320.0; 370; Hazardous
9h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 15:00; PM2.5; 313.0; 363; Hazardous
10h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 14:00; PM2.5; 322.0; 372; Hazardous
11h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 13:00; PM2.5; 321.0; 371; Hazardous
12h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 12:00; PM2.5; 306.0; 356; Hazardous
13h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 11:00; PM2.5; 340.0; 390; Hazardous
14h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 10:00; PM2.5; 387.0; 425; Hazardous
15h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 09:00; PM2.5; 261.0; 311; Hazardous
16h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 08:00; PM2.5; 310.0; 360; Hazardous
17h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 07:00; PM2.5; 312.0; 362; Hazardous
18h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 284.0; 334; Hazardous
19h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 258.0; 308; Hazardous
20h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 04:00; PM2.5; 293.0; 343; Hazardous
21h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 03:00; PM2.5; 318.0; 368; Hazardous
22h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 02:00; PM2.5; 347.0; 397; Hazardous
23h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-27-2013 01:00; PM2.5; 307.0; 357; Hazardous
Does anyone have the site where you can compare current atmospheric setups to setups in the past? I've seen Levi put it on his tidbits a few times but I can never find that particular site. It compares to the setups in the past and gives you a list of dates which had simlar setups.

Thanks!
Quoting LargoFl:
northeast gets snow in a week.....................


Interesting...Thanks LargoFL
does anyone have some good pictures of the 930mb low? what is it's pressure now?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
does anyone have some good pictures of the 930mb low? what is it's pressure now?


942...
as of now...
Major storm...930 mb..
AKA Jolle

Dangerous ice to near .5" in IA
248. beell
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
THIS BEING SAID...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY BEGUN TO INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SURFACE FRONT WHERE THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE PRESENT. IF A LARGE COLD
POOL DEVELOPS WITH THE SQUALL LINE...WE WILL SEE A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
EARLIER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY LIKE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING. AS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE ACTUALLY INDICATED A CAP OF WARM AIR
ALOFT JUST BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SQUALL LINE AT 750MB
...WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY VALUES REALIZED. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A
HISTORY LATELY OF NOT REALIZING ACTUAL INSTABILITY VALUES OVER THE
PAST FEW EVENTS. PUTTING ALL THE PIECES TOGETHER...A SQUALL
LINE/QLCS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME...WITH
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...YOU JUST CANNOT IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS
FORMING IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH RIGHT-TURNING
HODOGRAPHS


That (bolded text) seems to be a pretty consistent trend over the last few days.
Current Jet Stream Analysis From WU..(A Weather Channel Co..)



Current Jet Stream Analysis From WSI..(Intellicast..also a Weather Channel Co..)


General Electric owns them both..
As well as NBC..CNBC..and many other Media outlets..



60% chance of rain here, but there is nothing on the Radar. Wonder where it is? 60.3 right now, low was 57.1 and forecast for 61. Plenty of clouds, Sun was just out for a few.

000
FXUS62 KTAE 271542
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2013


.NEAR TERM [Today]...
Updated 1040am.
Frontal boundary is becoming less and less distinct this morning
as high pressure builds over the mid-atlantic states. Very few
clouds are noted on satellite imagery at the present, and mostly
sunny skies should persist through the afternoon. Other than a few
minor tweaks to the temperatures this morning, no significant
changes are needed to the forecast for the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Tranquil and unseasonably mild weather will continue through this
period as an upper ridge once again builds over the region. Only
an isolated shower is possible and we have capped PoPs at silent
10 into Monday night. Temps will remain mild at night and warm
each afternoon. Min temps will generally be in the 50s with highs
in the mid to upper 70s Monday and upper 70s to lower 80s on
Tuesday. By Tuesday, an upper level trough will be moving out
across the Great Plains. The associated surface cold front will be
approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley by 00Z Thursday. A slight
chance PoP was included for Tuesday afternoon across our western
zones, although most of the weather associated with this system
will occur during the long term period of the forecast (see
below).

&&

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...
The period will begin with strong upper level ridging moving off
the Southeast U.S. coast. Wed. should remain unseasonably warm
with max temps dependent on how quickly the next cold front
approaches the region from the NW. The global models are now also
in fairly good agreement with the timing of this front, with
slight differences accounting for a either Wed. Night or Thu.
Morning passage. Another important change to this current fcst
will be the increasing possibility for some strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms developing in advance of this Front, as the
models have become more energetic with this system and are carving
out a steeper upper level trough. If the low level instability is
sufficient, the strong dynamics and kinematics could make this a
potentially interesting event, and it will be monitored closely
over the next several days. After the cold front pushes through,
there is now good model consensus that much cooler and drier air
will dominate for the remainder of the period.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
This happened today to me...it was 5F outside...



Green lights on a 40 mph road... there is a railroad crossing and all of a sudden I see the gates coming down with the flashing red light WHEN THE GREEN TRAFFIC LIGHT WAS STILL THERE !!!

I had to make such a violent stop...feel bad for my car.. :(
wow your lucky no one crashed into from behind huh..I always drive with the window down so i can hear the warning bells and maybe even the train whistle or horn..crossings are dangerous and the train doesnt slow down at all
Quoting LargoFl:
so far it looks like this severe weather is going to miss florida..I dont see any advance warnings for us yet



It's a very strange winter. The placement of thunderstorm and heavy rain events has been much further north than usual, more like what one would find in April rather than the winter.

Frontal systems across the gulf coast and Florida have been very weak so far, when normally strong thunderstorm events in the winter are confined to the Gulf Coast and through central and north Florida.

Normally winter frontal systems don't start to lose their punch in terms of strong thunderstorms and such until they reach far southern Florida.


What scares me is that typically the winter months in Florida feature decent enough rain events just about every year for the subtropical foliage to endure the much drier fall and spring. This winter, fronts in the gulf coast and Florida look more like fronts in April and May. That's bad news, unless their is a major shift in the long term pattern soon, there is only going to be even weaker fronts and even drier warm to possibly even hot when spring arrives if this pattern continues. That would spell utterly severe drought in these regions.
HOWEVER...ONE KEY ELEMENT
IN THE MIX IS INSTABILITY...WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 300-800 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE HIGH 0-6 KM SHR
VALUES...AND THE VERY MODEST FORECAST CAPE AND THIN CAPE
PROFILES...THERE COULD BE A STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
WITHOUT BEING SHEARED APART.
ALSO...BY THE TIME THE CAP ERODES FOR
SFC BASED INSTABILITY...THE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHR
DECREASES...WITH SHR BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. THESE FACTORS
WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT EVEN IN THE MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. THE MAIN SVR WX THREAT WILL THEN BE LIMITED TO DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...IF THE CAP WERE TO ERODE EARLY ENOUGH...AND WITH
HIGHER LEVELS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A ENHANCED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES

Arkansas


Looks mighty DRY to me.
Quoting taco2me61:


At least the Threat will be gone by our next Mardi Gras Parade for Thursday night... Although it will be a lot cooler but warming back up by Saturday....


Taco :o)
wow i was there for that maybe 15-20 years ago..man what a party you folks throw down there..amazing really...have fun and enjoy ok
GFS at 48 hours..............
GFS THIS GO AROUND WAS FORECASTING +130KT AT 500MB AT NOON
WED...WHICH IS ALMOST EXTREME
. THE ECMWF/NAM/DGEX WERE MORE RESERVED
WITH WINDS IN THE 80-100KT RANGE (STILL STRONG). THE LATTER TWO WERE
ALSO HINTING AT THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVELY TILTED
ORIENTATION...WHILE THE GFS HAD A NEUTRAL TROUGH
ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 06Z NAM WAS FORECASTING 850MB WINDS NEAR OR
HIGHER THAN 50KT FROM LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH NOON WED. GIVEN SUCH A
WIND FIELD...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE OBVIOUSLY A THREAT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS
. WHILE A SQUALL LINE/QLCS APPEARS PROBABLE...DISCRETE
CELLS FORMING EAST OF A LINE (IF THE LINE FORMS) COULD ROTATE...WITH
A TORNADO THREAT POSED BY THE LINE AND/OR CELLS PRECEDING IT.
EXACTLY
WHAT STORM MODES WILL OCCUR AND TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS
STILL ABOUND...SO LATTER RUNS WILL BETTER RESOLVE THOSE QUESTIONS.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MONDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Looks mighty DRY to me.


Water vapor really isn't the tool you want to use if you're wanting to determine whether the atmosphere is dry or not. While sometimes it can, that's only because sometimes if the upper levels are dry then the others layers of the atmosphere are also(deep layer high). The water vapor loop is better for tracking troughing and disturbances in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The water vapor loop is most deceiving during the warm season as a more tropical air mass dominates many regions, that is deep moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere but often drier air in the upper levels from an upper anti-cyclone.

If you want to see a better way to measure moisture over a region, look at this page:


DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS...RESULTING IN GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
BTW the NAM backed off on the surface low this time around:

This run:


Last Run:
winds gusting pretty good over by so.texas huh...........
271. beell
GeorgiaStormz,

A small favor. Could you include some type of identifier with those discussions? I assume they have been from NWS Atlanta.
Fairbanks scientists stunned to find intact 40,000-year-old steppe bison in the melting permafrost.

Quoting hydrus:
that sure looks powerful huh Hydrus..hope no tornado's
Wow.

The fact that this is January and we don't get the huge tornado outbreak setups just yet is something to be thankful for with this kind of jet.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
BTW the NAM backed off on the surface low this time around:

This run:


Last Run:
I have a feeling that it will materialize..The next few runs should be interesting. I am still wondering if this system has a chance of going negative. The Euro has it close...
Quoting LargoFl:
that sure looks powerful huh Hydrus..hope no tornado's
I,m glad it is not April. I live in Mid TN. Our local mets said we have to watch this system closely and I shall.
Quoting Skyepony:
Fairbanks scientists stunned to find intact 40,000-year-old steppe bison in the melting permafrost.

thanks for that story..amazing..smelled like rotten eggs..ugh..but amazing there still could be gristle on the bones after 40,000 years..wonder if they could still get DNA from it?..scientists will be all over those remains..quickly i hope..wont last too long,now that its uncovered
Quoting hydrus:
I,m glad it is not April. I live in Mid TN. Our local mets said we have to watch this system closely and I shall.
wow i was thinking the same thing this morning, i was glad this isnt springtime
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 am CST sun Jan 27 2013


Valid 291200z - 301200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from Texas northeast to Illinois and
east across the lower MS valley...


...
A potent high amplitude upper trough and associated cold front will
sweep east and south across the plains/Midwest and lower MS valley
from Tuesday into early Wednesday. This system could produce a
fairly widespread swath of severe weather from central and northestern
Texas...northern la...across much of Arkansas and southeastern MO...and east and south
across the MS river from Illinois to MS. While it is too early to be
overly detailed regarding the character of this event...the
size...strength...and rapid evolution of the large scale trough
system...as currently forecast...suggests the development of an
extensive and fast-moving squall line capable of producing damaging
winds across some or all of the above mentioned areas from around
middle-day Tuesday into early Wednesday.


..TX to Illinois southeast across the lower MS valley...
Prefer the somewhat slower and not so phased depiction of the upper
trough as shown by latest European model (ecmwf) and NAM through early Tuesday. These
scenarios indicate a moist but generally weak to moderately unstable
airmass will be situated from Texas northeastward across MO and into Illinois by
Tuesday afternoon. Lack of stronger instability will likely be
compensated for by relatively rapid onset of intense ascent
associated with the approach of middle/upper trough and 100kt middle level
speed maximum spreading out across the warm sector to near Arlatex by
around 00z. Deep convection will erupt along the entire length of
the sharpening cold front through the late afternoon with storms
coming under the influence of ever increasing deep-layer shear/flow.
Extensive qlcs appears likely to spread east across the middle/lower MS
valley into Tuesday night with cell motions forecast in excess of
50kt leading damaging winds. Lack of stronger cyclonic development
along the cold front suggests linear Mode should dominate but
supercells and lewps embedded in the line and near transient frontal
wave structures would pose some tornado threat with time.
Uncertainties regarding overall timing and degree of surface-based
destabilization preclude higher or significant probabilities at this
forecast range. However...future upgrade to MDT risk seems possible
if these details become clearer.


.Carbin.. 01/27/2013


Quoting hydrus:


Finally a map with the strong blue/green
281. beell


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow.

The fact that this is January and we don't get the huge tornado outbreak setups just yet is something to be thankful for with this kind of jet.



Nice subtropical jet phasing.
Ever since Dr Masters wrote a blog on it, i've noticed every large severe weather event features that.
wish I could get some of that rain,dont look too good...
284. beell


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE
OVER AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
286. VR46L
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Your terminology is incorrect. Just so there is not confusion by anyone reading the comments... Severe warnings are issued by local NWS offices as an event occurs - severe t-storm, tornado, suspected tornado. SPC identifies severe risk potential and adjusts that potential up to and during an event, and they issue severe weather watches - severe tstorm and tornado watches - as the weather becomes imminent.

A convective outlook may identify a "slight" or greater risk area in FL panhandle by Monday or later, but severe warnings will not be in the picture until and unless this severe system develops and moves that direction.

The SPC's severe risk areas have been inching west and now have spread NE. Those in the southern plains into the upper midwest and parts of the southeast would be wise to keep an eye on pending Tuesday weather. And those downstream (east) of whatever develops, keep an eye on what will head your way.


Thank you for your explanation. My major interest is the atlantic and systems as they leave the East Coast . I Am a novice on your winter weather.

By the way , I miss your avatar.

(note by tomorrow night they should have a good idea)............STRONG WIND SHEAR AND FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THEY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE TUESDAY EVENING AND
MARCH EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH LOUISIANA...AND
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AS COOLER
AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
289. beell



THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
VALUES APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUGGESTS SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM AMERICUS TO
WARNER ROBINS TO LOUISVILLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LINGERING SLICK SPOTS MAY EXIST ON AREA ROADS. USE CAUTION WHILE
TRAVELING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
OCCUR ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXTENT OF
FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING AS THE CHANGE FROM
SNOW OCCURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION MIGHT ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. PLEASE
LOOK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION LATER TODAY.

SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
Quoting VR46L:


Thank you for your explanation. My major interest is the atlantic and systems as they leave the East Coast . I Am a novice on your winter weather.

By the way , I miss your avatar.

YW> Severe weather can occur all year round. For anyone who wants to gain understanding of these systems, following the SPC convective outlooks, mesoscale discussions and weather watches is a good place to start. Northern Atlantic systems can be similar to those that track into (add: western) North America bringing hurricane force winds and rain/snow.

BTW, a troll ate my avatar. Just as well. Makes me less noticeable.
Quoting Skyepony:
Fairbanks scientists stunned to find intact 40,000-year-old steppe bison in the melting permafrost.

As permafrost continues to melt, I am quite sure there will be more incredible prehistoric finds. I was thinking of becoming a archeologist when I was young, and dreamed of finding one of these...
Taking a step back..the Bigger picture.


Quoting LargoFl:


Absolutely wonderful day today in South Fort Myers. Sunny, temps low 80s, low humidity, its just about pefect.
-56 in Alaska.



Thanks, Jedkins
Well I just have to get through this last semester of liberal studies classes and then it's all major related courses the rest of the way. Taking classes like theatre and writing papers about plays to me is actually harder than physics because it's utterly boring to me and I have hard time writing 2000 words in making arguments out of material that my brain doesn't pay attention to, lol.
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Mixed precipitation tonight and Monday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system developing over Colorado will track toward
Southern Ontario tonight and Monday. Precipitation ahead of this low
will reach Windsor this evening, then the Toronto to Georgian Bay
area towards midnight, and finally the Ottawa Valley Monday morning.

Precipitation will start as snow, then change to ice pellets and
freezing rain. Precipitation will change to rain for most areas
Monday, except near the Ottawa Valley Tuesday. The main concern is
that the freezing rain may last for several hours before changing to
rain. Latest indications suggest that freezing rain warnings will
likely be issued for a large part of Southern Ontario later today or
tonight as the event draws closer.

Snow amounts with this system will vary. General amounts of 2 to
5 cm are expected south of a line from Southern Georgian Bay to
Kingston. From Parry Sound to Ottawa and Cornwall, 5 to 10 cm of
snow are forecast. The highest amounts are likely to be over the
Burk's Falls and Algonquin regions, which may see 10 to 15 cm or more
of snow.

The exact timing and amount of the precipitation will depend on the
track of the low. As this system is developing, there is some
uncertainty in the exact track of the low. Environment Canada is
monitoring this system closely and will issue further statements and
warnings as necessary.

Motorists and pedestrians are advised to be prepared for hazardous
winter travelling conditions due to the freezing rain and snow.
Untreated surfaces may become icy and slippery. Low visibility in
areas of heavier snow may also contribute to hazardous winter driving
conditions.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

END/KUHN/OSPC

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Absolutely wonderful day today in South Fort Myers. Sunny, temps low 80s, low humidity, its just about pefect.


Send me some of that....
Quoting PedleyCA:


Thanks, Jedkins


No problem!

Ughhhh, spend the last 2 days trying to unthaw a drainpipe in my basement! 200+ old house here that empties into a pristine crick. Not the only one with this nightmare! Boiled lots and lots of water yesterday to put in the basement shower. No avail. Couldn't use salt either.... oh no... Iron pipe. Decided to come from that crick in, sawed off the pvc "L" that we inserted to try and stop hurricane 'Irene' from flooding, thought we could screw on a deterent to flooding. Naaah... didn't work. Irish wits finally about me, I got it done. Long piece of old iron, hammer away at it and about 16" in, I got a handful of the most foul smelling water ever. I loved it!!!!
Some heavy rains from the cold front are beginning to fall over Niihau and Kauai. Expect the heavy rain to move down the Hawaiian Island chain through tomorrow.

its all most FEB
cold rtns after event

Our friend in the North Atlantic is still out there, but it is just a shadow of it's former self.



Where is it? You may be surprised. It's actually the swirly thing due south of Iceland at about 60*N. Phase diagrams indicate that the warm seclusion process complete, meaning it is now a fully warm core and symmetrical storm. The storm's warm core will now begin to become more shallow as the storm continues to decay.





This has been one really fun and interesting storm to watch!
Talk about bipolar weather.

Kankakee, Illinois is expecting a period of sleet and freezing rain this evening. This is expected to transition to rain tonight and through tomorrow night.

By Tuesday comes the chance of heavy rainfall. Severe weather is possible on Tuesday night.

Wednesday there is a chance of snow. Wednesday night should be cloudy to overcast.

The sun is out on Thursday.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Talk about bipolar weather.

Kankakee, Illinois is expecting a period of sleet and freezing rain this evening. This is expected to transition to rain tonight and through tomorrow night.

By Tuesday comes the chance of heavy rainfall. Severe weather is possible on Tuesday night.

Wednesday there is a chance of snow. Wednesday night should be cloudy to overcast.

The sun is out on Thursday.


Sounds like Texas. :P
Large area of dry air south of Hawaii:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
-56 in Alaska.



-45F at my dorm right now.
While my weather won't be extremely bipolar, it will still flip flop. A whole mess of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected tonight into tomorrow morning with a winter weather advisory in effect. Then tomorrow it is expected to warm into the 40s and the precip turn to all rain. Tuesday should bring highs to near 60 and have showers with even some thunder possible. Then Thursday is back to a rain snow mix with temperatures falling throught the day as highs hit the mid 40s early. After some snow Wednesday night, Thursday will be a cold windy day.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Ughhhh, spend the last 2 days trying to unthaw a drainpipe in my basement! 200+ old house here that empties into a pristine crick. Not the only one with this nightmare! Boiled lots and lots of water yesterday to put in the basement shower. No avail. Couldn't use salt either.... oh no... Iron pipe. Decided to come from that crick in, sawed off the pvc "L" that we inserted to try and stop hurricane 'Irene' from flooding, thought we could screw on a deterent to flooding. Naaah... didn't work. Irish wits finally about me, I got it done. Long piece of old iron, hammer away at it and about 16" in, I got a handful of the most foul smelling water ever. I loved it!!!!
Does this happen often if so I will tell you how to fix it.
Quoting Levi32:


-45F at my dorm right now.
I cannot imagine 45 below, nevermind -56.
Yep, 316 - 1900hurricane - really looking forward to the remnants of this 'fun and interesting storm' on the W coast of Scotland. Have my eye on a few tree branches that really need to come down - just hope the whole tree doesn't come down too.
Below is my outlook map for Tuesday's likely severe weather outbreak.

The main threat, by far, should be damaging winds in the form of a squall line or derecho. However, given the strong shear profiles...if enough instability can materialize...isolated tornadoes ahead of the line are possible. These tornadoes, if they develop, will pose the risk of becoming strong. Quick spin-ups are also likely within the line itself.

Marginally severe hail is also possible within the storms that develop, but it'll be the lesser of the three threats.

70 Degrees here today, and overcast. :D
Recent earthquake in Asia at 5.2 that just happened.

USGS
tomorrow is going to be interesting.... my local NWS office is telling me im going to get 1/2 inch of of snow, some sleet and around 0.1" of ice... and then later in the week PA is included in the severe weather outlook... I think Mother Nature has it out on Pennsylvania :O
Hi Guys!

I need your help. I am doing my research report on hurricanes, and I am taking a bit of a poll/census to determine what is the first hurricane that pops into your mind. I would really appreciate it if you would take the time and comment on my post, that way I can further my information and better my report. Thanks for your help!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/WunderGirl12/com ment.html?entrynum=3

WunderGirl12

P.S - Please comment on the post itself, not on Dr. Masters Blog. It is much easier for me to keep track of the names. Thanks! :-)
The GFS is forecasting the development of a very powerful low southwest of Greenland in five days, though not quite as intense as Jolle.

944 millibars:

Quoting Levi32:


-45F at my dorm right now.



Could you possibly elaborate on how its possible to adjust living in such an extreme place? lol

30's must feel like balmy spring warmth after dealing with that kind of extreme cold.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Disturbance #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
6:00 AM FST January 28 2013
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 22.8S 180.0 has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly GOES infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has improved past 24 hours. However, deep convection displaced to the far south of fully exposed low level circulation center. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. System lies south of an upper level jet in a high sheared environment. Upper divergence good to the east of the system. Sea surface temperature is around 27C

Global models have picked up the system and move it westwards with deepening.
We have another chance of snow come Friday.The details are still sketchy the immediate concern is the ice tomorrow.Thank goodness the warm up will be short and winter will return.
ZCZC 788
WTIO30 FMEE 271840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2013/01/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 60.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/28 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/01/28 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/01/29 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/01/29 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/01/30 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/01/30 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/01/31 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2013/02/01 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+, CI=2.5-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON UNDERGOING A SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SHOWS A
SHEARED PATTERN WITH A CENTRE LOCATED AT ABOUT 0.9 DG SOUTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (STILL SHOWING A CURVED BAND PATTERN).
SYSTEM SHIFT WESTWARDS ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST
TRACK. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN
THE NEXT 48/60 HOURS (ARPEGE-ALADIN AND UKMO SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK). OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SOUTH-EASTERLY THEN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
PROGRESSIVELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS, AND TO KEEP ON BEING
UNFAVOURABLE UNTIL MONDAY LATE OR TUESDAY EARLY FOR A SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING (INTENSITY SHOULD OSCILLATE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT).
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ALOFT AS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DECREASES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
REMAINS VERY GOOD WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD, ON THE BOTH SIDES.
THEREFORE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REGULARLY STRENGTHEN AND TO UNDERGO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS
EAST-NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE FROM WEDNESDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN MALAGASY
COASTLINE UP TO THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVOURABLE.
IT CAN BE NOTED THAT US MODEL GFS IS THE ONLY NWP THAT SUGGESTS THE
SOUTHWARDS RECURVE MORE EASTERN.=
NNNN
Quoting Levi32:


-45F at my dorm right now.


I see that heatwave finally hit.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Ughhhh, spend the last 2 days trying to unthaw a drainpipe in my basement! 200+ old house here that empties into a pristine crick. Not the only one with this nightmare! Boiled lots and lots of water yesterday to put in the basement shower. No avail. Couldn't use salt either.... oh no... Iron pipe. Decided to come from that crick in, sawed off the pvc "L" that we inserted to try and stop hurricane 'Irene' from flooding, thought we could screw on a deterent to flooding. Naaah... didn't work. Irish wits finally about me, I got it done. Long piece of old iron, hammer away at it and about 16" in, I got a handful of the most foul smelling water ever. I loved it!!!!

Your sewer line drains directly into a "pristine" crick? Where exactly do you live?

Quoting LargoFl:
wow your lucky no one crashed into from behind huh..I always drive with the window down so i can hear the warning bells and maybe even the train whistle or horn..crossings are dangerous and the train doesnt slow down at all


yes...i just read ur comment.

i should go to report it to the city dept of transportation
Already snowing here with very minor accumulations.

Mesoscale discussion #53
We can start a trend here...

"Thunderfreezingrain"

Lol. But seriously, there's reports of thunder and lightning in Chicago right now as light to moderate freezing rain comes down. Reports are that ice has accumulated up to 0.2".
Quoting Jedkins01:



Could you possibly elaborate on how its possible to adjust living in such an extreme place? lol

30's must feel like balmy spring warmth after dealing with that kind of extreme cold.


The best way to adjust to living in such extreme conditions is to avoid living in a place where the temperature is likely to drop to -45F.

Even though there are plenty of winter weather worshipers on this blog these days, you won't find many who crave temperatures that are tens of degrees below zero. I have personally felt temps as cold as -20F and that was more than I could handle, even though at the time I had lived in a cold climate all my life prior to that experience.

I have a close friend who lived for many years here in Central Florida and moved away to an isolated ranch in Central Montana about a decade ago, in part because he wanted to experience extreme cold and snow again. He got his wish and now he tells me that the cold makes his bones ache. That is what tends to happen when it is all but relentless for months on end.
Quoting misanthrope:

Your sewer line drains directly into a "pristine" crick? Where exactly do you live?

its just a crick now with grey water running in it
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We can start a trend here...

"Thunderfreezingrain"

Lol. But seriously, there's reports of thunder and lightning in Chicago right now as light to moderate freezing rain comes down. Reports are that ice has accumulated up to 0.2".
thunder ice
The HPC says I have a moderate chance of getting at least .25" of ice tomorrow. Looking at down stream reports this is pretty possible.

So far, 0.9" of snow has fallen from this system. Given that there are still some heavy areas of snow to come through before the changeover, I should get at least an inch of snow.
Nice Day Keeper

Weather Station
Toronto Pearson (CYYZ)
Elevation
568 ft
Now
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Temperature
28 °F
Feels Like 22 °F
Wind(mph)
6


2 to 3 inch per hr snowfall rates entering sw ontario
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EST Sunday 27 January 2013
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.4 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 27.5°F
Dewpoint: 19.2°F
Humidity: 71 %
Wind: S 6 mph
Wind Chill: 21


Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Wide variety of weather approaching Southern Ontario.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system from Colorado will bring a wide variety of
inclement weather to Southern Ontario over the next few days.

1. Over Southwestern Ontario snow and freezing rain tonight will be
followed by periods of rain Monday and Tuesday. Record to near
record warm temperatures are forecast for Monday and Tuesday.
A freezing rain warning is currently in effect.

2. Over South Central Ontario, snow will develop tonight then change
to freezing rain Monday morning. The freezing rain will change to
rain by Monday afternoon over southern sections, including Toronto,
but the freezing rain will persist into the evening north and east of
Toronto. On Tuesday, rain and record to near record warm
temperatures are forecast. A freezing rain warning is currently in
effect.

3. From Georgian Bay to Eastern Ontario snow will develop early
Monday then change to freezing rain Monday afternoon. Freezing rain
will end Monday evening, then rain will develop Tuesday.

4. In the Ottawa Valley, snow is expected Monday followed by dry
conditions Monday night and Tuesday then freezing rain late Tuesday.

Please check the latest public forecasts and current warnings for
expected snowfall and freezing rain amounts.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End


For West Palm Beach...I'll take it...

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
HIC003-280415-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FF.W.0025.130128T0123Z-130128T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
323 PM HST SUN JAN 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 615 PM HST

* AT 311 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN NEAR NANAKULI...OR ABOUT 19
MILES NORTHWEST OF HONOLULU. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH MORE ON THE WAY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAIANAE AND MAILI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 615 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2150 15827 2156 15807 2130 15796 2124 15815

$$
POWELL
It's now raining in my area on the island of Oahu:

Cold front is bringing heavy rain to Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu. The Maui County should receive some heavy rain by late tonight or early tomorrow.

NAM seems to support the surface low the most of all the models.

3 days and lots of model runs to go.
Quoting Civicane49:
Cold front is bringing heavy rain to Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu. The Maui County should receive some heavy rain by late tonight or early tomorrow.



At least that rain will aliviate somewhat the drought conditions in the islands.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


At least that rain will aliviate somewhat the drought conditions in the islands.


It should. Wet season was overdue for Hawaii. The drought conditions should lessen by the next few months, if Hawaii gets more rain.

THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL
HINDER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO QUICKLY SPIN-UP AND PRODUCE A TORNADO. ANY LEWPS WILL ALSO HAVE
A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE SQUALL LINE.



I still don't think we'll see any prefrontal storms
A surface low could help this become a more significant tornado threat, but it appears that probably won't happen:

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Mixed precipitation tonight and Monday.


END/KUHN/OSPC



Snow, ice pellets and then rain. What a lovely Monday Keeper and I have coming.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


The best way to adjust to living in such extreme conditions is to avoid living in a place where the temperature is likely to drop to -45F.

Even though there are plenty of winter weather worshipers on this blog these days, you won't find many who crave temperatures that are tens of degrees below zero. I have personally felt temps as cold as -20F and that was more than I could handle, even though at the time I had lived in a cold climate all my life prior to that experience.

I have a close friend who lived for many years here in Central Florida and moved away to an isolated ranch in Central Montana about a decade ago, in part because he wanted to experience extreme cold and snow again. He got his wish and now he tells me that the cold makes his bones ache. That is what tends to happen when it is all but relentless for months on end.



The coldest weather I have been in was 14 with a high of 33 in the NC Appellations in January several years back. There was some light snow around, and a recent snow/sleet/freezing rain mix so everything was icy a slippery.

That to me was REALLY cold, I can't imagine living in well below zero temps!

I don't know why anyone would move from Florida to Montana, that I find downright crazy. I could understand moving to say NC or Tennessee if you want a bit more cold action, but Montana. Yeah, you live in Montana if you grew up there, not move there, lol.

We had some neighbors that moved to Iowa because they "got tired of the city". You know, I got tired of it too sometimes, I prefer more land, more rural living, but they only had to drive 30 minutes up I-75 to find that, not Iowa. Last I heard they were miserable there and struggling to find work...


all around but not for me...
Quoting Bielle:


Snow, ice pellets and then rain. What a lovely Monday Keeper and I have coming.
yep a find mess that will all be gone by tuseday noon with warm heavy rain maybe some thunder
This is how it looks like outside just a few minutes ago. 2.5" of snow has already fell, but it should be wrapping up with the accumulating snow soon. Snow fall rates were 1-3" per hour at times. Sleet is mixing in now.

All that talk and those pictures are making me cold. Almost made it to 65 here today. Forecast was 61 and 60% chance of rain. Didn't see any here. Los Angeles got some light rain. It's all good...
Very educational video from The Weather Channel.

A cold front has reached the island of Kauai. It should reach Oahu around midnight.

Slow night...Hope you enjoy...

More heavy rain is on the way for my area. A band of heavy showers is approaching to Oahu.



Loop
Quoting Civicane49:
A cold front has reached the island of Kauai. It should reach Oahu around midnight.



Didn't see any rain during the Pro Bowl. They got that in just in time.
Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is forecast to slowly strengthen and is also anticipated to move westward and make a sharp turn towards the south, avoiding landfall on Madagascar.



Quoting PedleyCA:


Didn't see any rain during the Pro Bowl. They got that in just in time.


Yep. There wasn't much rain this afternoon. But, it isn't over yet; more rain is coming.
Quoting Civicane49:


Yep. There wasn't much rain this afternoon. But, it isn't over yet; more rain is coming.


Right, I was watching the storm on radar. I figured they would get it in before the rain got there. Never saw any clouds, Just sunshine. Stay safe over there and dry if you can.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Right, I was watching the storm on radar. I figured they would get it in before the rain got there. Never saw any clouds, Just sunshine. Stay safe over there and dry if you can.


Don't worry. I'll stay indoors through the night.
Well, It is time to close up for the night. Stay Safe out there. Stay Warm and Dry. Sleep Well.
13S..the 00Z is in better agreement about staying just off shore & stronger than the 18Z.

Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is forecast to slowly strengthen and is also anticipated to move westward and make a sharp turn towards the south, avoiding landfall on Madagascar.





but Sparing it
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


but Sparing it


That too.
Quoting Civicane49:
It's now raining in my area on the island of Oahu:



would there be severe weather?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


would there be severe weather?


Yes
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
632 PM HST SUN JAN 27 2013

HIC003-280730-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0014.130128T0432Z-130128T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HONOLULU HI-
632 PM HST SUN JAN 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 930 PM HST

* AT 624 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN OAHU FROM HAUULA TO WAIALUA TO WAIANAE. THE LINE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND THROUGH THE EVENING.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF OAHU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS FLOOD ADVISORY REPLACES THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED ADVISORY THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 930 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2162 15835 2177 15793 2121 15755 2124 15816

$$
WROE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
703 PM HST SUN JAN 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM HST

* AT 656 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES AN HOUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WINDWARD OAHU.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAHIAWA...MILILANI...SCHOFIELD BARRACKS...HAUULA AND LAIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1000 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2153 15811 2175 15796 2152 15781 2135 15809

$$

REYNES/WROE
Quoting Skyepony:
Fairbanks scientists stunned to find intact 40,000-year-old steppe bison in the melting permafrost.

Wow, very cool ...
Heavy rain falling over Central Oahu.

Flash flood warning has been extended till 10:15 pm HST.
MS river is closed near Vicksburg.

A barge carrying 80,000 gallons of oil hit a railroad bridge in Vicksburg, Miss., on Sunday, spilling light crude into the Mississippi River and closing the waterway for eight miles in each direction, the Coast Guard said. A second barge was damaged. Investigators did not know how much had spilled, but an oily sheen was reported as far as three miles downriver of Vicksburg after the 1:12 a.m. incident, said Lt. Ryan Gomez of the Coast Guard's office in Memphis, Tenn. Authorities were still trying to determine the source of the leak, but it appeared to be coming from one or two tanks located at the stern of the first barge, Gomez said. He said there was no indication that any oil was leaking from the second vessel, and said it was still unclear whether the second barge also hit the bridge or was damaged through a collision with the first. "Investigators are still trying to figure out what happened," he said. The privately owned response-and-remediation company United States Environmental Services was working to contain the oil with booms before collecting it and transferring it to one of the barge's undamaged tanks, then ultimately to a separate barge, Gomez said.
More here
The value of inductive reasoning is underrated. Deductive reasoning is upheld as superior but both must be used effectively to have clear and accurate perception.
Three people have died and hundreds of homes are under water after heavy rain brought flooding to parts of the Australian state of Queensland. The town of Bundaberg, where rescuers have been trying to airlift some residents to safety, is expecting its worst floods on record. In Brisbane, the state capital, almost 5,000 homes and properties are at risk. The rain was brought by Tropical Cyclone Oswald, which is now affecting the northern part of New South Wales. Two years ago, flooding in Queensland left 35 people dead, with Bundaberg among the towns affected. Bundaberg Mayor Mal Foreman said the floods would be "far worse" than 2011. Residents have been told to evacuate in some areas after the Burnett River burst its banks. At least 1,200 properties have flooded and some 30 people are trapped on the roofs of their houses in the north of the city. In Brisbane, which was paralysed by flooding two years ago, water has been creeping into low-lying parts of the central business district. Residents of the Lockyer Valley, which was the scene of deadly flash floods in 2011, have also been told to evacuate as creeks and rivers rise. In Ipswich, the Bremer River is expected to peak later in the day, prompting flood warnings. Police said the body of an elderly man who went to check on a yacht north of Bundaberg had been recovered on Sunday. Two men swept away by flooding in separate incidents in Queensland were also found dead on Monday.
Quoting Jedkins01:
The value of inductive reasoning is underrated. Deductive reasoning is upheld as superior but both must be used effectively to have clear and accurate perception.


Is this in response to something? Or were you just musing?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FELLENG (07-20122013)
10:00 AM RET January 28 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng (998 hPa) located at 13.0S 59.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant and up to 40 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 170 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.4S 57.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 13.8S 55.1E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 15.4S 52.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.5S 51.0E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
==========================
System keeps on moving generally westwards on the northwestern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures. This night available scatterometry data are very partial but 0442z ASCAT swath suggest however that gale force winds exist in the eastern semi-circle. Low level circulation has improve on last TRMM data 0224z. So the system has been named.

Available numerical weather prediction models models are in rather good agreement about the forecast track at short range. System is expected to keep a west southwestwards track over the next 36-48 hours.

On this forecast track, the moderate east southeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to limit intensification within the next 12 hours. Then, environmental conditions improve progressively in relationship with the weakening vertical wind-shear and with a second upper level outflow building poleward on and after Thursday. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides.

Environmental conditions are then very favorable for further intensification. However, the vicinity of the Malagasy coastline should be a limited factor.

On and after Wednesday, system is then expected to undergo the northerly steering influence of the mid-level ridge in its east and to track southwards.

Given all the above, unhabitants of eastern Malagasy coastline should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Tropical Cyclone Thirteen becomes Felleng.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
906 PM HST SUN JAN 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BRINGING A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HIZ005>011-282015-
/O.CON.PHFO.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130129T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
906 PM HST SUN JAN 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* OAHU.

* THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER OAHU WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

* AVOID GOING NEAR STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS. REMEMBER
THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE RAINING HEAVILY WHERE YOU ARE FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

FOSTER
Good Evening all.
It's been a very wet but not very windy day here in the burbs of Sydney. As you can see from the below image, Sydney is starting to get the big effects of Ex-Oswald.



The wind is starting to pick up and will only get worse. Sydney is being forecast to get 120km/h wind gusts on the coast 100km/h wind gusts in the burbs, sustained will be around 80km/h. As you can see from the image below it's not looking good.



Below is rainfall map for the last 24hrs. This time tomorrow night it's predicted anywhere between 100-200mm of rain is to fall, and mostly after midnight tonight.



I will try and stay awake as long as I can to report on local conditions.

I'll be back later. This is far from over for SE Queensland and very much so for New South Wales(my state).
Monday 28th January

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of RAIN
Another spell of heavy rain, accompanied by strong to gale force winds, will quickly spread northeastwards across the UK early on Tuesday.
Given saturated ground, the public should be aware that localised flooding and disruption to travel is likely across south and west Wales and southwest England.
Valid on Tuesday from 0005 until 2355.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING of WIND
A spell of very windy weather with gales and severe gales in places, will spread across Scotland during Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Winds inland will be strongest through the Central Lowlands (80 mph) during the early morning, then will gradually ease from the west.
The public should be aware of the need to take extra care and of the potential for disruption, particularly to travel.

Thank you JOLLE - as if we are not wet enough here!!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening all.
It's been a very wet but not very windy day here in the burbs of Sydney. As you can see from the below image, Sydney is starting to get the big effects of Ex-Oswald.



The wind is starting to pick up and will only get worse. Sydney is being forecast to get 120km/h wind gusts on the coast 100km/h wind gusts in the burbs, sustained will be around 80km/h. As you can see from the image below it's not looking good.



Below is rainfall map for the last 24hrs. This time tomorrow night it's predicted anywhere between 100-200mm of rain is to fall, and mostly after midnight tonight.



I will try and stay awake as long as I can to report on local conditions.

I'll be back later. This is far from over for SE Queensland and very much so for New South Wales(my state).


Evening Aussie.

It looks like both of us are getting wet weather. I am currently getting heavy rain from the cold front on the island of Oahu in Hawaii. The rain should end on my area by tomorrow afternoon. Stay dry and safe.
Good Morning folks..evening Aussie...well the blogs coffee is perked grab a cup and Have a wonderful day everyone!
7 day for Tampa Bay..hope I get a few showers......
Good morning, all. Evening, Aussie.

A balmy 66 degrees this morning with a high expected around 75 later.

I've added muffins and bagals with honey butter, cream cheese and jelly alongside Largo's coffee. Enjoy.
Good morning. Here's the SPC's latest outlook for tomorrow:



It doesn't look like a huge event, but scattered damaging winds will definitely be a threat as we should see a pretty big squall line form. A few isolated tornadoes are possible as well, but wind is definitely the bigger threat.
Good morning everyone.

This morning I woke to a couple inches of snow on the ground, a couple tenths of an inch of ice, and no school. My first weather related school closing in 2 winters. So far, there are about 600 school closing in the Metro Detroit area. There are also numerous accidents on the roads this morning.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone.

This morning I woke to a couple inches of snow on the ground, a couple tenths of an inch of ice, and no school. My first weather related school closing in 2 winters. So far, there are about 600 school closing in the Metro Detroit area. There are also numerous accidents on the roads this morning.
GOOD MORNING..That was a smart move closing the schools,less traffic on those ice covered roadways and the kids are home safe
looks like a stormy day up in the northeast....
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, all. Evening, Aussie.

A balmy 66 degrees this morning with a high expected around 75 later.

I've added muffins and bagals with honey butter, cream cheese and jelly alongside Largo's coffee. Enjoy.

Good Evening, I have added a bottle of Jim Beam Black beside these if anyone needs something a bit stronger.
wow look at that front............
I guess this could be a bad middle of the week weather wise for the whole gulf coast states huh, im wondering here in florida what is going to happen when this cold front crashes into our humid 80's temps..hopefully some rain
Quoting LargoFl:
GOOD MORNING..That was a smart move closing the schools,less traffic on those ice covered roadways and the kids are home safe

Yeah everything is covered in a layer of ice making travel unsafe. Besides, I really wanted this day to have no school, one more rest day after mid-terms.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah everything is covered in a layer of ice making travel unsafe. Besides, I really wanted this day to have no school, one more rest day after mid-terms.
I remember way back, i was walking to school on one of those ice covered sidewalks, was late so i was rushing a bit, slipped on the ice and almost fractured my head..man it hurt but made it to school ok..from then on all thru my life I was wary of ice..lesson learned huh.
aussie, hope you come thru that stormy weather ok down there..hope no flooding by your place..thats alot of rain there for sure.
A 3-year-old boy has died in Royal Brisbane Hospital tonight after he was critically
injured in an incident earlier this morning at Gordon Park.

Initial information suggests that at around 8.30am a 34-year-old woman and the
3-year-old boy were standing on Kedron Brook bikeway watching floodwater when they were struck by a falling tree.

They were both taken to hospital in a critical condition.

Police will prepare a report for the coroner.

State of Queensland (Queensland Police Service) 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening, I have added a bottle of Jim Beam Black beside these if anyone needs something a bit stronger.


Hmmm, a little of that in my coffee sounds interesting, Aussie coffee vs Irish coffee. Must try it. Hope all the rains are not affecting you.

Time to start another week. Everyone have a great Monday. Aussie, enjoy your Tuesday!
Quoting LargoFl:
aussie, hope you come thru that stormy weather ok down there..hope no flooding by your place..thats alot of rain there for sure.


Can you check this link please... Late news via online stream. Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Can you check this link please... Late news via online stream. Link
thats a cool site aussie..wow hundreds of homes flooded in Queensland huh...
NAM at 72 hours,hunker down and heed your local warnings..


Rainfall since 9am


Doppler Winds. The deep blue is 90km/h+ (56mph+)
gee middle of the week.................
The Equatorial Pacific for the most part has warmed a bit in the past few days as a strong MJO wave moves thru. Last week's CPC update had Nino 3.4 at -0.6C but it looks like it warmed to -0.3C.

northeast has snow almost all week from these storms..
Quoting LargoFl:
thats a cool site aussie..wow hundreds of homes flooded in Queensland huh...


Currently Bundaberg in Queensland is waiting for a 9.5m(31.1ft) flood peak tonight. Not sure how the Bundaberg Rum Distillery will fair with the flooding as it's right beside the river. This will be the worst flooding Bundaberg has ever had, even worse than January 2011.
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST...................DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
Scotland flooding: Alert system launched for the east coast



A flood warning service has been launched for the east coast of Scotland as several flood alerts have also been put in place across the country.

The new Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Sepa) warning system covers 28 areas form the Borders to Angus.

The alerts, an extension of Sepa's existing Floodline warnings, are sent direct to mobile phones or by email.

Strong winds and heavy seas battered the east coast in December, causing extensive damage and flooding.

The flood alerts for Monday have been put in place for Argyll and Bute, Ayrshire and Arran, Caithness and Sutherland, Central, Dumfries and Galloway, Dundee and Angus, Orkney, Scottish Borders, Skye and Lochaber, Tayside, West Central Scotland, Wester Ross and the Western Isles.

The alerts indicate that "Flooding is possible, be prepared".

Launching the new warning system, Sepa's Dr David Pirie said: "We are delighted to launch the new coastal flood warning service for the firths of Forth and Tay.

"It represents a major investment in building community resilience to coastal flooding.

"As we saw before Christmas, this can cause significant disruption and damage so it's vital we are aware and prepared for it."

Protect homes
Communities along the estuaries on the east coast in Angus, Tayside, Fife, Falkirk, Edinburgh, East Lothian and the Borders are covered by the service.

The alerts cover the likelihood and timing of any flooding threat.

They are aimed at giving people time to take action to protect their homes and businesses and to allow people travelling through flooded areas to make alternative arrangements.

Sepa estimates there are 125,000 properties at risk from flooding in Scotland, the equivalent of one in 22 homes and one in 13 businesses.

Environment Minister Paul Wheelhouse added: "This new scheme is a crucial step to make sure local communities are informed and ready well in advance of any potential flooding."

BBC © 2013
geez Aussie,BBC pic..........................
Jedkins might get some interesting weather huh.....
A regional severe weather outbreak is expected from northeastern Texas to Illinois and eastward to Tennessee during the day tomorrow. Given a lack of well-defined surface low and instability, the main storm mode is going to be linear, presenting the idea that damaging winds will, by far, by the biggest threat. However, there is some slight veering of winds with height, so any discrete cell that forms ahead of the main line has the possibility of quickly producing a tornado. Spin-up tornadoes are also possible along the line. Hail seems to be the lower of the three threats given a lack of instability and cold temperatures aloft.

We should see a Moderate risk tomorrow.
Burrum Head Queensland Tornado aftermath.















Photo's thanks to Higgins Storm Chasing
I've been thinking about Aussie over the weekend and trying to explain weather on the other side of the earth to my son.
It is hard when we are predicted to have 91 degree temps on Wednesday, in our winter and Sydney is only going to reach 77 in their summer!!!!
OK. somebody explain it to me.

This is the dry season in Florida and we need the cold to keep water in our lakes. We made some headway back toward decent lake water levels since last spring, but it is going to get BAD again without rain or cold to stop evaporation. I see the drought index for the upper Mississippi is looking way too high still. Could someone just move the Jet over half a continent for a week or two. That might give North East snow plows a break and the rest of us something to plow or puddle.
Quoting biff4ugo:
I've been thinking about Aussie over the weekend and trying to explain weather on the other side of the earth to my son.
It is hard when we are predicted to have 91 degree temps on Wednesday, in our winter and Sydney is only going to reach 77 in their summer!!!!
OK. somebody explain it to me.

This is the dry season in Florida and we need the cold to keep water in our lakes. We made some headway back toward decent lake water levels since last spring, but it is going to get BAD again without rain or cold to stop evaporation. I see the drought index for the upper Mississippi is looking way too high still. Could someone just move the Jet over half a continent for a week or two. That might give North East snow plows a break and the rest of us something to plow or puddle.

AGW??? LOL
for our Local festivities today...........ST. PETERSBURG --
Today's weather for two major festivals in the area should be near perfect.

According to Bay News 9 meteorologist Josh Linker, those attending the Gasparilla Pirate Fest in Tampa and Kumquat Festival in Dade City will enjoy temperatures in the low to mid 70s and mostly sunny skies. And they won't get wet, since there is no rain in the forecast.
"It'll be a pleasant, great day for Gasparilla," Linker said. "We've had some years in the past where it was kind of chilly out for Gasparilla, but not today. Just make sure you bring some extra water and, of course, sun screen."

Today's temperatures will be a little cooler along the coastline if an onshore breeze develops, Linker said.

Warm and sunny conditions will continue Sunday - in fact, the highs will approach 80 degrees - and through the first part of the work week. The weather will stay spring-like until Thursday, when a cold front will bring a chance of rain and drop temperatures.

"This next warm spell won't be quite as warm as the recent one where we had all the record heat, but it's going to be pleasant over the next few days," Linker said.


How do you move masses of people? Look at the water lapping at their feet in Bundaberg.


Is this when they evacuated one of the evacuation centres. Great Aussie ingenuity and mateship!!
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FELLENG (07-20122013)
16:00 PM RET January 28 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng (996 hPa) located at 13.2S 58.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.4S 57.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 14.0S 55.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.3S 52.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.4S 51.7E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
==========================
System keeps on moving generally westwards on the northwestern edge of the low level subtropical high pressures. Available scatterometry data at 0724z OSCAT swath suggest a field of wind becoming less assymetrical, with always a good feeding monsoon flow.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement about the forecast track at short range. System is expected to keep a west southwestwards track over the next 24-36 hours.

On this forecast track, the weak to moderate southeasterly to southerly vertical wind shear is expected to limit intensification within the next 24-36 hours. Then, environmental conditions improve progressively in relationship with the weakening vertical wind shear and with a second upper level outflow building poleward on and after Thursday. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides. Environmental conditions are then very favorable for further intensification. However, the vicinity of the Malagasy coastline should be a limiting factor.

On and after Wednesday, system is then expected to undergo the northerly steering influence of the mid-level ridge in its east and to track southwards.

Given all the above, unhabitants of eastern Malagasy coastline should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
18:00 PM FST January 28 2013
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10F (1000 hPa) located at 11.5S 166.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-spectral visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has not increased much near the center. System lies just south of an upper level ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Good divergence to the west and southeast of the system. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up this system and moves it southeastwards with slight intensification.
Surprise!!!!!



Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Given all the above, unhabitants of eastern Malagasy coastline should closely monitor the progress of this system.


What!!!!!
702 ABC Sydney ‏@702sydney
Ex-cyclone Oswald now over Tamworth. Heaviest rain approaching #Sydney with 139mm in Gosford since 9am.
Quoting AussieStorm:


What!!!!!


Poorly English to french translation, mostly likely instead of "people of"

Link
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Poorly English to french translation, mostly likely instead of "people of"

Link

You'd think that could check it before posting that.
Girl crushed by snowball froze in fear

A BRITISH teenager who was crushed by a giant snowball she'd made with friends says she "froze on the spot" when she saw it hurtling towards her.

Nicole Wignall, 16, is recovering in hospital after the snowball pinned her against a wall, breaking her pelvis in four places.

Freezing weather gripped the United Kingdom last week resulting in more than 10 deaths.

Ms Wignall built the giant snowball with friends when her school was closed due to the freezing conditions.

"It took seven of us to push it to the top of a steep hill then we had a break," the student told British newspaper The Sun on Monday.

"(Later) we saw the snowball coming down really fast.

"My friend moved out of the way but I froze on the spot and the snowball smashed into me."

Ms Wignall's mother Fiona said the 1.5m snowball "was the size of a small car".

"She had a very lucky escape."

More than 200 flood alerts are in place across the UK as heavy rain mixed with melting snow marks the latest weather battle.
Quoting nymore:
Does this happen often if so I will tell you how to fix it.
Thanks Nymore.... appreciate it. Send me mail on it. And NO it was not a sewer line. Just an old sink down there and a place to give people and pets a shower. Even a goat too. Snowing here in PA this AM.
Quoting AussieStorm:

You'd think that could check it before posting that.


they've been posting it that way for years too, LOL
Good morning all from the central Colorado Rockies!
24F and a forecast for snow today thru Wednesday! We will be getting on the slopes in about 2 hours or our 1st day of skiing! I'm like a little kid about to go to Disney I'm so excited!
Severe Weather Warning
for destructive winds, damaging winds, heavy rain, abnormally high tides and damaging surf
for people in the Metropolitan
, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Northern Tablelands, Illawarra, South Coast and Central Tablelands forecast districts
Issued at 12:47 am EDT on Tuesday 29 January 2013.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING AND LOCALLY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, AND DAMAGING SURF FOR EASTERN NSW

Weather Situation
At midnight, ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was located over the North West Slopes and Plains of NSW to the east of Narrabri. The system will track steadily southwards to reach the Sydney Metropolitan and Illawarra coastal areas around dawn on Tuesday morning before moving out to sea during the day.

Heavy rainfalls, which may lead to flash flooding are forecast with rain and thunderstorms for the Metropolitan, Mid North Coast, Hunter and Central Coast, Illawarra and South Coast forecast districts and parts of the Central Tablelands forecast districts. Rain, although still falling, has eased in the Northern Rivers and Northern Tablelands, and the risk of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will contract southwards during the morning.

Damaging winds with peak gusts over 100 km/h are forecast for coastal parts of the Northern Rivers and southern parts of the Northern Tablelands forecast, expected to ease by dawn. Damaging winds with peak gusts over 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the Metropolitan, Hunter, Mid North Coast and Central Tablelands forecast districts this morning with locally destructive wind gusts in excess of 125km/h possible in exposed coastal areas.

Abnormally high tides which may cause sea water flooding of low lying areas and very heavy surf which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion are forecast for the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Hunter, Central Coast, Sydney Metropolitan and Illawarra on Tuesday. This may extend to the South Coast later Tuesday. Beach conditions in these areas will be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

Rainfalls since 9am Monday include 325mm at Couchy Creek, 237mm at Bellingen, 147mm at Gosford, 111mm at Port Macquarie and 101mm at Coffs Harbour.

The highest wind gust recorded has been 132 km/h (71 knots) at Cape Byron at 4:53 pm Monday afternoon.


Flood warnings have been issued for several rivers in eastern NSW. Refer to www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/ for the latest flood warning information.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
If you are trapped by flash flooding, seek refuge in the highest available place and ring 000 if you need rescue.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am EDT Tuesday.
Good Morning All..





Current Jet Stream..



Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Good morning all from the central Colorado Rockies!
24F and a forecast for snow today thru Wednesday! We will be getting on the slopes in about 2 hours or our 1st day of skiing! I'm like a little kid about to go to Disney I'm so excited!


Wow, my vacation is on Feb 14th, I'll be in Wisconsin for 4 days of heaven! I hope you get some snow while you are there! There is not a better feeling in the world to be skiing down a slope while the snow is falling.
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Click image for link.
A couple of continuously updating Webcams from my area..



The worst of the rain is almost over, Winds are still yet to hit.

Current Sydney Radar.


Current winds


Goodnight all
1 KM Visible Satellite for Eastern Texas



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Thought this was appropriate for Houston.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Disturbance #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
0:00 AM FST January 29 2013
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located 23.4S 177.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and recent ASCAT pass.

Overall organization has improved slightly in the past 24 hours. Deep convection displaced to the south of exposed low level circulation center. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 300 HPA. System lies along a surface trough in a high sheared environment. Upper divergence good just to the east of the system. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on shear patttern with dense overcast about 65 NM away from the center, yielding DT=2.0, PT=2.0, MET=2.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and moves it westward with slight intensification.
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 am CST Monday Jan 28 2013


Valid 291200z - 301200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the lower Ohio/middle MS valley
region southwestward into northestern Texas...


...
A highly amplified/progressive upper pattern will affect the U.S.
This period...with a strong trough forecast to exit The Rockies and
shift into the central portion of the country with time.


As the strong/sharp trough advances...a sharpening cold front is
forecast to shift across the plains during the first half of the
period...and then continue eastward overnight. By the end of the
period...this boundary should stretch from lower Michigan southward to the
central Gulf Coast and on into the Gulf of Mexico. It is this front
which will focus a zone of strong/locally severe convection across
parts of the central U.S. -- Particularly during the late afternoon
and evening hours.


..lower Ohio/middle MS valleys southwestward into northestern Texas...
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two should be ongoing at the
start of the period across parts of OK and adjacent North Texas/southern
Kansas...ahead of the sharpening surface front. Convection should
remain generally sub-severe however into the afternoon...as
moistening/weak destabilization of the pre-frontal airmass occurs.


By middle to late afternoon...500 j/kg mixed-layer cape should combine
with increasing ascent with the approach of the upper system to
result in an increase in convective coverage/intensity along/ahead
of the cold front. While storms from roughly the MS valley northeastward
into Illinois should struggle to become truly surface-based thus limiting
severe potential...storms from MO southward will be occurring in a
sufficiently moist boundary layer to permit damaging wind/tornado
potential. With the main surface low to remain well to the
north...minimal low-level veering may limit overall tornado potential.
However...strong speed shear given a rapidly strengthening flow
field with height will support organized storms capable of producing
damaging gusts and likely a few isolated tornadoes.


Threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight
hours...with linear evolution of the convection expected with time.
Damaging wind potential may eventually spread east of the MS River
Valley...though the greatest threat should occur during the evening
within a region extending from the arklatex region northeastward across the
Ozarks.


.Goss.. 01/28/2013
The weather forecasters have no idea what is going to happen around here with the snow. Yesterday and as late as last night forecast was 1 to 3 inches of snow. Now this morning we get this forecast.

Snow in the evening...then light snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation of 3 to 11 inches. Lows 20 to 25. Light winds. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Basically we (forecasters) have no idea what to expect.
Hoping this pans out, as this would be very much needed rainfall for our area...

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The CPC forecasts a prolonged extension of the cold in the eastern part of the country for the period 6-14 days from today, while the southwest bakes (for this time of year's standards).

Also, the dry weather is set to continue in the nation's heartland. There isn't much more time left for significant precipitation to alleviate the drought conditions before the furnace is turned on this spring.



Quoting pcola57:
A couple of continuously updating Webcams from my area..





I can really tell you are Home now..... Welcome Back
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Is this in response to something? Or were you just musing?



Just musing :)
LOL- I have to fly from Atlanta to Fort Walton Beach tomorrow morning- right along the path of the squall line. This should be interesting.