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North American cold wave winds down; Atlantic storm stronger than Sandy winding up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:05 PM GMT on January 25, 2013

The January 2013 North American cold wave is winding down, after bringing five days of bitter cold to Canada and the Midwest and Northeast U.S. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Friday morning in just six states east of the Rockies--half as many as on Thursday morning. The coldest spot was Saranac Lake in New York's Adirondack Mountains, which bottomed out at -18°F (-28°). In nearby Malone, NY, flooding is occurring, thanks to an ice jam on the Salmon River caused by this week's cold weather. The weather was a bit warmer on Mt. Washington, New Hampshire today, where the temperature of -17°F (-27°C) combined with a wind of 81 mph to create a wind chill of -61°F (-52°C). The most dangerous winter weather today will be due to the Wrath of Khan--a low pressure system traversing Tennessee and Kentucky has been named Winter Storm Kahn by TWC, and will bring as much as 0.5" of ice accumulation from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky through North Carolina and northern South Carolina, potentially causing major power outages. Snow will impact areas from the Ohio Valley through western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia, with 1" expected in D.C. and 1 - 3" in Baltimore.


Figure 1. A powerful extratropical storm with a central pressure of 984 mb begins to wind up about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, at 10 am EST January 25, 2013.

How low will it go? Massive Atlantic storm winding up
In the Northern Atlantic, an extratropical storm that brought up to 6" of snow to Maryland on Thursday is rapidly intensifying about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, Canada, and figures to become one of the most intense storms ever observed in the North Atlantic. This meteorological "bomb" was analyzed with a central pressure of 984 mb at 12Z (7 am EST) Friday morning by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center; the GFS and ECMWF models both predict that the storm will deepen by 60 mb in 24 hours, reaching a central pressure of 924 - 928 mb by 7 am EST Saturday morning. This is the central pressure one commonly sees in Category 4 hurricanes, and is a very rare intensity for an extratropical storm to attain. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds of the massive Atlantic low are predicted to peak at 90 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength), with significant wave heights reaching 52 feet (16 meters.) Fortunately, the storm is expected to weaken dramatically before reaching any land areas, and will only be a concern to shipping. The intensification process will be aided by the strong contrast between the frigid Arctic air flowing off the coast of Canada from this week's cold blast, and the warm air lying over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current. The ultimate strength of the storm will depend upon where the center tracks in relation to several warm eddies of the Gulf Stream along its path. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's post on Super Extratropical Storms, the all-time record lowest pressure for a North Atlantic extratropical storm is 913 mb, set on January 11, 1993, near Scotland's Shetland Islands. The mighty 1993 storm broke apart the super oil tanker Braer on a rocky shoal in the Shetland Islands, causing a massive oil spill.

Other notable Atlantic extratropical storms, as catalogued by British weather historian, Stephen Burt:

920.2 mb (27.17”) measured by the ship Uyir while she sailed southeast of Greenland on December 15, 1986. The British Met. Office calculated that the central pressure of the storm, which was centered some distance southeast of the ship, was 916 mb (27.05”).

921.1 mb (27.20”) on Feb. 5, 1870 measured by the ship Neier at 49°N 26°W (another ship in the area measured 925.5 mb)

924 mb (27.28”) on Feb. 4, 1824 at Reykjavik, Iceland (the lowest on land measured pressure in the North Atlantic)

925.5 mb (27.33”) on Dec. 4, 1929 by the SS Westpool somewhere in the Atlantic (exact location unknown)

925.6 mb (27.33”) on Jan. 26, 1884 at Ochtertyre, Perthshire, U.K. (the lowest pressure recorded on land in the U.K.)

For comparison’s sake, the lowest pressure measured on land during an extra-tropical storm in the United States (aside from Alaska) was 952 mb 28.10” at Bridgehampton, New York (Long Island) on March 1 during, the Great Billy Sunday Snowstorm.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic Storm of January 11, 1993 at 0600Z when it deepened into the strongest extra-tropical cyclone ever observed on earth, with a central pressure of 913 mb (26.96”). Satellite image from EUMETSAT Meteosat-4.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease in intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Links
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt's posts on Super Extratropical Storms and World and U.S. Lowest Barometric Pressure Records

Claudio Cassardo's January 23, 2013 post, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks doc..........
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

...A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE LIGHT
WINTRY MIXTURE WILL LIKELY END AS AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
EARLY THIS EVENING.
Thanks Doc...

Sure gonna be an interesting week ahead for me..
Quoting VR46L:
Thanks Doc...

Sure gonna be an interesting week ahead for me..




Liz, I tell ya. This is sure going to be one of those weeks where I can't help but be thinking about you and the Folks over in the UK. Hopefully the winds are rain aren't too bad.

Doc. Great blog today. Was hoping for a nice list of other past beast systems to compare this potential monster-in-the-making to. And you delivered.

Well done, Sir!

Have a fantastic weekend and upcoming week next week. I'll be out hitting the slopes with my two young daughters in Washington State.



Good Morning..Im rooting for the models to be wrong and it look like they may. Its already sleeting well before predicted in the inland counties here in the southern half of NC.
Thank you for the new blog Dr. Masters.
I will be watching this monster all week end. Hope all our Eurpean friends are taking notice!
thanks for your breakdown Dr. M, interest piqued!
Thanks Jeff. Massive is bad...
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Liz, I tell ya. This is sure going to be one of those weeks where I can't help but be thinking about you and the Folks over in the UK. Hopefully the winds are rain aren't too bad.

Doc. Great blog today. Was hoping for a nice list to compare this potential monster-in-the-making to. And you delivered.

Well done, Sir!




Like I said Ains on the previous blog the Mets over here are not biting at all . Maybe they want the Snow Drama to finish before hitting folk with news of this bad boy . Thaw is on in earnest now here in Ireland . Flood is a Concern ,not to me live well above sea level, but there is a lot of rain fall predicted over the next week . and hurricane winds are Predicted for us by your Ocean weather service .

And thanks for your concern :)
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..Im rooting for the models to be wrong and it look like they may. Its already sleeting well before predicted in the inland counties here in the southern half of NC.
It's sleeting pretty good here right now. In fact, schools are shutting down earlier than planned here including mine's.
Quoting VR46L:


Like I said Ains on the previous blog the Mets over here are not biting at all . Many they want the Snow Drama to finish before hitting folk with news of this bad boy . Thaw is on in earnest now here in Ireland . Flood is a Concern ,not to me live well above sea level, but there is a lot of rain fall predicted over the next week . and hurricane winds are Predicted for us by your Ocean weather service .

And thanks for your concern :)


You're more than welcome. :) Anytime.

Strange they are underplaying it to that degree. I guess in times like these use common sense and your own knowledge of weather and systems like these and prepare accordingly....


Braer Storm of January 1993


The Braer Storm of January 1993 is the most intense extratropical cyclone on record for the northern Atlantic ocean. Developing as a weak frontal wave on January 8, 1993, the system moved rapidly northeast developing at a moderate pace. The combination of the absorption of a second low-pressure area to its southeast, a stronger than normal sea surface temperature differential along its path, and the presence of a strong jet stream aloft led to a rapid strengthening of the storm, with its central pressure falling to an estimated 914.0 mb (26.99 inHg) on January 10. Its strength was well predicted by forecasters in the United Kingdom, and warnings were issued before the low initially developed.
Winds of gale-force covered the far northern Atlantic between western Europe and Atlantic Canada due to this storm, with hurricane-force winds confined near its center of circulation. After reaching its peak intensity, the system weakened as it moved into the far northeast Atlantic, dissipating by January 17. This storm caused blizzards across much of Scotland and led to the final breakup of the oil tanker MV Braer, which had been stranded in rocks off the Shetland Islands by a previous storm nearly a week beforehand.
-----------------------------------
Record set

This cyclone was slightly stronger than an intense low pressure area which moved near Greenland on December 14-15, 1986, which was the strongest extratropical cyclone known to occur across the northern Atlantic ocean at that time.

Only three prior extratropical storms across the north Atlantic,[3] and one since,[8] have attained central pressures below 930 millibars (27 inHg).
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's sleeting pretty good here right now. In fact, schools are shutting down earlier than planned here including mine's.


yeah I saw schools are letting out 4 hours earlier than the 2 hours they had originally thought..looks like we may get more than rain here..its sleeting in Cumberland and Bladen County and they were just in the possible of getting winter precip as their forecast..this will catch a lot of people off guard getting off from work this evening if this keeps up..
Dr. Masters. Thanks for the post!

I was curious to know the relationship of these types of storms versus Climate Change, relating specifically with the frequency and place of occurrence. It's just my opinion, but to me extra tropical cyclones "seem" to be increasing in both frequency and intensity within the mid latitudes regions of the globe.

Have there been any studies or even previous blogs you've done on the topic?

What influence, if any, does the Arctic dipole help to provide a role in increasing these type of events?

Well for those wondering and waiting....there you go:

Chicago Officially Observes First Daily One Inch Snowfall

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
949 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013 /1049 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013/

...CHICAGO OFFICIALLY OBSERVES FIRST DAILY ONE INCH SNOWFALL...
Quoting TomballTXPride:


You're more than welcome. :) Anytime.

Strange they are underplaying it to that degree. I guess in times like these use common sense and your own knowledge of weather and systems like these and prepare accordingly....




Yeah not gonna stress too much , Usually get one or two, 80-100 miles an hour Gusts ,storms every year . Just try to be sensible . and hope I dont lose my internet for a week like I did last year..
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Dr. Masters. Thanks for the post!

I was curious to know relationship of these types of storms versus Climate Change, relating specifically with the frequency and place of occurrence. It's just my opinion, but to me extra tropical cyclones "seem" to be increasing in both frequency and intensity within the mid latitudes regions of the globe.

Have there been any studies or even previous blogs you've done on the topic?

What influence, if any, does the Arctic dipole help to provide a role in increasing these type of events?




well I'm out..good luck on him answering but you should get the usual arguments from the bloggers and I dont want to stick around for that..

I'll be watching the sky for some white stuff! Talk to you guys later
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's sleeting pretty good here right now. In fact, schools are shutting down earlier than planned here including mine's.
It's been all snow in Chapel Hill, but sleet is now mixing in. Schools let out at 11:00. Untreated roads are white with a coating.
Surfers will be happy in Iceland!
look at that line..come ON old man winter!!
Arid southern California is getting way more rain than redwood groves far north.



Looks like some thundersnow is possible
Quoting ncstorm:



well I'm out..good luck on him answering but you should get the usual arguments from the bloggers and I dont want to stick around for that..

I'll be watching the sky for some white stuff! Talk to you guys later


Understandable, I'm not trying to provoke the usual fight, but rather get information on mid latitude extra tropical storms. Looking at the SST anomalies you can see this system is forecast to track right along extreme anomalies both positive and negative, which can only increase the probability of a stronger storm.

Quoting VR46L:


Like I said Ains on the previous blog the Mets over here are not biting at all . Maybe they want the Snow Drama to finish before hitting folk with news of this bad boy . Thaw is on in earnest now here in Ireland . Flood is a Concern ,not to me live well above sea level, but there is a lot of rain fall predicted over the next week . and hurricane winds are Predicted for us by your Ocean weather service .

And thanks for your concern :)


well, as Dr. M says, the thing is supposed to wind down quickly.

As well, I wonder: The Brits in general tend to be much more subdued and restrained in their speech, so maybe the mets are as well?


Fairly large storm and plenty of it left to pass over here.




Can anyone explain why this image is missing the SE quadrant. Anything that can be done to prevent that. Am I too close to this radar or what. I am NE of it about 18 miles. TIA
Forgot to thank the Doc. Thanks Doc M.
(runs in to hug VR46L, runs back out)
Quoting aquak9:
(runs in to hug VR46L, runs back out)


Thanks Aqua , You take care !!
Good Morning. Climate change or not, low pressure systems are/have always been a year round event on Earth since the beginning of time whether they be winter storms/sub-extra/tropical, etc in both hemispheres at any given moment.

Ice cores give us a general picture of the time frames for global warming/cooling periods on Earth over the past thousand/millions of year, but we have no idea about the strength or intensity of the lows during these same past time periods (except for documented written records of "storms" in historical documents or accounts for any given date or location; i.e, the "great storm" of fill-in-the __________ ); we will never know what the actual pressures, or frequency of storms, were back in the day and can only speculate.

Modern science can give us all the actual measurements/pressures from this era but no way to know how they compare to past storm systems before the modern age to make any scientific correlations between the two.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


well, as Dr. M says, the thing is supposed to wind down quickly.

As well, I wonder: The Brits in general tend to be much more subdued and restrained in their speech, so maybe the mets are as well?


Hmmm The OPC seems to think there are Hurricane Winds involved over Ireland

Big Atlantic storm in '93, anyone rem what occurred in the Miss. & MO river valleys that spring/summer? Wouldn't mind about 1/2 to 3/4 of that this year, as long as crops get in first.
Well Dr Masters thanks for that.
Its so nice to know whats hanging over our heads, even if it wont be the worst north Atlantic storm in recorded history, at least it will give us something to talk about over the weekend other than golden oldies for those who survived long enough to receive a pension.
There's probably going to be some damage out of this one, if for sure not all shipping is out of the area, 52 foot waves are pretty nasty things even in big ships.
Added to the human disturbances in the immediate area, there will also be a lot of warm air carried up north, Iceland area etc with this storm.
Well on the bright side of things, I supose that it will oxygenate the waters a bit!
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Dr. Masters. Thanks for the post!

I was curious to know the relationship of these types of storms versus Climate Change, relating specifically with the frequency and place of occurrence. It's just my opinion, but to me extra tropical cyclones "seem" to be increasing in both frequency and intensity within the mid latitudes regions of the globe.

Have there been any studies or even previous blogs you've done on the topic?

What influence, if any, does the Arctic dipole help to provide a role in increasing these type of events?


This is usually a good starting point for such questions...
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=extratr opical+storms+climate+change&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C19

Just a quick glance at some of the results from both the scholar search and regular web search seems to suggest a not-so-clear-cut answer.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/ en/ch3s3-8-4.html
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008J CLI2678.1
http://www.acrim.com/%5C/Reference%20Files/CLIMAT ECHANGE%202001%20-%20The%20Scientific%20Basis.pdf...page 33. Slightly older source.
Safecote Limited‏@Safecote

#Blizzard conditions on the #M60 right now in #Manchester - please take care out there #GK5SnowPloughBlades
Riders on the Storm

Here you go Red
Quoting ScottLincoln:

This is usually a good starting point for such questions...
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=ext ratr opical+storms+climate+change&btnG=&as_sdt= 1%2C19

Just a quick glance at some of the results from both the scholar search and regular web search seems to suggest a not-so-clear-cut answer.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/ en/ch3s3-8-4.html
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008J CLI2678.1
http://www.acrim.com/%5C/Reference%20Files/CLIMAT ECHANGE%202001%20-%20The%20Scientific%20Basis.pdf...page 33. Slightly older source.


Much appreciated Scott!
WOW... This storm is going to be really historic...
Thanks for the entry Doc
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Climate change or not, low pressure systems are/have always been a year round event on Earth since the beginning of time whether they be winter storms/sub-extra/tropical, etc in both hemispheres at any given moment.

Ice cores give us a general picture of the time frames for global warming/cooling periods on Earth over the past thousand/millions of year, but we have no idea about the strength or intensity of the lows during these same past time periods (except for documented written records of "storms" in historical documents or accounts for any given date or location; i.e, the "great storm" of fill-in-the __________ ); we will never know what the actual pressures, or frequency of storms, were back in the day and can only speculate.

Modern science can give us all the actual measurements/pressures from this era but no way to know how they compare to past storm systems before the modern age to make any scientific correlations between the two.


Tru dat !!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhmggMcJTPo&feature= player_embedded ciclone Gong last saturday in Portugal
Quoting Chapelhill:
It's been all snow in Chapel Hill, but sleet is now mixing in. Schools let out at 11:00. Untreated roads are white with a coating.
Here in Garner/Clayton area, it's sleeting pretty good. The road is already frozen with a layer of sleet sticking to it. Glad Johnston County school let us out 15 minutes earlier than planned or students would've trouble driving home. I should have pictures soon.
Here's the radar image for Raleigh area right now:

Quoting Chucktown:


Tru dat !!


I am still trying to wrap my head around a post from Dr. M last week (with a recent paper cite) that the current kink in the jet stream over the US "might" be related to melting ice in the Artic in recent decades.....Not suggesting that the paper might be wrong but just noting the same issue; no way to know how past Artic melts (before recorded time) exactly influenced the jet stream patterns.....Computer modeling can only go so far.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Climate change or not, low pressure systems are/have always been a year round event on Earth since the beginning of time whether they be winter storms/sub-extra/tropical, etc in both hemispheres at any given moment.

Ice cores give us a general picture of the time frames for global warming/cooling periods on Earth over the past thousand/millions of year, but we have no idea about the strength or intensity of the lows during these same past time periods (except for documented written records of "storms" in historical documents or accounts for any given date or location; i.e, the "great storm" of fill-in-the __________ ); we will never know what the actual pressures, or frequency of storms, were back in the day and can only speculate.

Modern science can give us all the actual measurements/pressures from this era but no way to know how they compare to past storm systems before the modern age to make any scientific correlations between the two.

Thanks for that one.
I think there comes a point that with weather we have to accept that after more than 100 years of fairly accurate measurements and reports that the records of warmest, coldest, highest wind speeds, lowest storm pressures etc. Have probably been achieved and it will be arbitrary if things vary a little bit outside known records.
This may not be the case with tornadoes, earthquakes ,volcanic eruptions etc, as they may operate over a much longer time scale.
If we are talking about a pressure difference of a few mi bars or a temp difference of a degree or two, to the sufferers its not that significant.
If we were to take the next 50 years and say things were just a bit outside the records, that's life,evolution of records and the world in general.
What is much more significant is the overall trends and these may be changing towards more record tying events so instead of once every 20 years these events tie every 10,5 or even 2 years.
This to me is the significance of record breaking events, their frequency not just their existence!
Thanks Doctor Masters! :-)

Hope everyone stays safe with this storm coming. A "chilly" 72*F right now. Man I do wish for some cold weather. :-)

WunderGirl12
Quoting dabirds:
Big Atlantic storm in '93, anyone rem what occurred in the Miss. & MO river valleys that spring/summer? Wouldn't mind about 1/2 to 3/4 of that this year, as long as crops get in first.


Well, if the last decade is any predictor, it seems that we ought to not only expect the unexpected, but to consider it more expectable than usual.

That sounds a little cutesy, so to put it another way, variance in data seems to be on the increase, and the rate of increase might be increasing too.
Added this to the blog:

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number due to climate change
In my 2010 blog post, The future of intense winter storms, I discuss how evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Several studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic, but Benestad and Chen (2006) found no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic, and Gulev et al. (2001) found a small small decrease in intense winter storms in the Atlantic.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms. Two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S.

Jeff Masters


Good for snow lovers.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Climate change or not, low pressure systems are/have always been a year round event on Earth since the beginning of time whether they be winter storms/sub-extra/tropical, etc in both hemispheres at any given moment.

Ice cores give us a general picture of the time frames for global warming/cooling periods on Earth over the past thousand/millions of year, but we have no idea about the strength or intensity of the lows during these same past time periods (except for documented written records of "storms" in historical documents or accounts for any given date or location; i.e, the "great storm" of fill-in-the __________ ); we will never know what the actual pressures, or frequency of storms, were back in the day and can only speculate.

Modern science can give us all the actual measurements/pressures from this era but no way to know how they compare to past storm systems before the modern age to make any scientific correlations between the two.


Nice perspective.


Major icing is expected in Triangle later today.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 251743Z - 252145Z

SUMMARY...A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...COMMENCING BY AROUND 20-21Z...WHICH
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE
CHARLOTTE...WINSTON-SALEM...FAYETTEVILLE AND RALEIGH-DURHAM
METROPOLITAN AREAS.

DISCUSSION...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRENGTHENING OF WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
MODELS INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THIS LOW-LEVEL JET /TO
55-65 KT/ IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-22Z...WITH THE JET CORE ELONGATING
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THIS LIKELY
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND
BROAD...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ABOVE A LINGERING
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS. AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SATURATE...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BUT
WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN. SIZABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS
MAY ALSO HINDER PRECIPITATION RATES INITIALLY...BUT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF PRECIPITATION RATES UP TO AROUND .10
INCH PER HOUR...SIGNIFICANT ICING APPEARS POSSIBLE ON VEGETATION...
POWER LINES AND MOST UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES.

..KERR.. 01/25/2013
If I rem, MZ, there was a fairly heavy snow melt from the Rockies that year as well, IA had such spring rains they never got in the fields in many places. As low as rivers are currently, probably could handle that better this year. I was at Riverport for the Flood Relief concert when the Chesterfield Levee gave way and concert had to be cancelled. Had to settle for show at Funny Bone instead. Same morning the old farmhouse in Monroe County IL was washed away. You should see how they filled in Chesterfield Valley after built new levee, some never learn.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Climate change or not, low pressure systems are/have always been a year round event on Earth since the beginning of time whether they be winter storms/sub-extra/tropical, etc in both hemispheres at any given moment.

Ice cores give us a general picture of the time frames for global warming/cooling periods on Earth over the past thousand/millions of year, but we have no idea about the strength or intensity of the lows during these same past time periods (except for documented written records of "storms" in historical documents or accounts for any given date or location; i.e, the "great storm" of fill-in-the __________ ); we will never know what the actual pressures, or frequency of storms, were back in the day and can only speculate.

Modern science can give us all the actual measurements/pressures from this era but no way to know how they compare to past storm systems before the modern age to make any scientific correlations between the two.
You've brought up some very valid points. However, it pays to remember that anthropogenic warming is--to use a phrase increasingly popular among scientists--"loading the dice" for such events to occur with greater frequency and intensity. And there is, of course, solid evidence that that is exactly what is happening. So while even before we humans started drastically changing the climate the weather would have occasionally rolled double sixes, our loading of the dice is why higher numbers have and will continue to come along more frequently.

NOTE: I'm not saying tomorrow's North Atlantic Superstorm will be "caused" by global warming. But I am saying that, in our warming world, every weather event is affected by that warming to a lesser or greater degree, and tomorrow's storm will be no exception.
Thanks Dr. Masters; If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms

If we assume that the current global warming signals = more intense winter storms (regardless of whether a natural cycle or un-natural one exacerbated by human carbon emissions), then this may have occurred in past eons during past warming events and we will see this same type of frequency-intensity in the coming decades.

At 51, I will be watching the data closely over the next 10-30 years (and witnessing the upcoming events).....God Willing....... :)
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Recent radar...Hours and hours of snow to come for N Eng especially inland. http://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/2948702449068 97409/photo/1
It's almost believable that storms are becoming stronger in the Atlantic. But then there is this history thing! LOL

3 Miles NNW Riverside Municipal CA

57°F

14°C

Humidity96%
Wind SpeedNNE 1 G 6 MPH
Barometer30.14 in
Dewpoint56°F (13°C)
VisibilityNA

Last Update on 25 Jan 9:49 am PST

Current conditions at

Jurupa Valley (SDJUR)

Lat: 33.987 Lon: -117.425 Elev: 795ft.
The most powerful impacts from this storm will be in the faroe islands.100 mph winfs massive storm surge flooding
Quoting overwash12:
It's almost believable that storms are becoming stronger in the Atlantic. But then there is this history thing! LOL


And that inconvenient, stubborn, road-block, history thing unfortunately goes a little further back than the late 1800's...


G'day and thanks Dr Jeff, great post.
The explosive N Atlantic storm will be interesting to watch, big impact expected to Iceland where Icelandic Meteorological Office has issued several warnings... Saw the 0ZS 25th GFS had MSLP peaking near 920 mb, the 12Z run slightly less now indicating sub 935 mb range so might get close to those top 5 intensity values... and still reaching peak sfc winds at 80 kts, with winds at 925 mb heights on up at 100 kts...

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Understandable, I'm not trying to provoke the usual fight, but rather get information on mid latitude extra tropical storms. Looking at the SST anomalies you can see this system is forecast to track right along extreme anomalies both positive and negative, which can only increase the probability of a stronger storm.



Hiya Ilwthrfan,
Well, one way to put that question in perspective is looking at the historical dates of N Atl storms with record low values Dr Jeff provided, with 3 of them going back to 1800's...

Certainly warm SST values continue due to the Gulf Stream / AMOC, which has shown no sign of slowing in it's function of poleward transport of warm water from tropics, nor much appreciable change in those warm SST's flowing into the Norwegian Sea / sub-Arctic region... I'll be curious to see if this storm affects those SST's to any meaningful measure. Seems it would take really extreme, deep upwelling to do that. Sheesh, given this storm's broad, powerful circulation it might enhance the N Atlantic Current's N / northeastward influx of warm water into polar region!

Going to NYC Next Friday-Wednesday and im looking for some snow,temps look good long range,however Im not to good with the winter models for snow,anyone have any insight and/or links to good winter models,I'd love a snowstorm while im there!!,thanks in advance!!
Wasn't Jacques Cousteau caught in a fierce Atlantic storm for three days,aboard the Calypso?
Is it just me, or did the entry become longer than it originally was?

EDIT: just looked back and my suspicions are confirmed. I knew something was amiss!
PressureDrop I was being sarcastic when I said don't talk to me.Lol that's my way of joking sometimes.I'm jus jealous you guys might get more snow than us again.
Noting:-59. DocNDswamp
"Sheesh, given this storm's broad, powerful circulation it might enhance the N Atlantic Current's N / northeastward influx of warm water into polar region!"

My thoughts exactly, now then imagine if this storm was a bit lower and it wasn't on course for the Faeroe Islands but was going to hit Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. This would lead to large and significant damage.
The sheer amount of water that is going to get stirred up by this storm is massive if its a bit over a 1000 miles across then it will be affecting about a million square miles of ocean!
Its eastern edge will push masses of warm air and possibly water into the Northern Atlantic.
I think that those who have only read about hurricanes would do well to watch these storms as they are a very good example of first cousins to them.
ECMWF at 45 hours.



This thing looks like something ripped straight from The Day After Tomorrow, its just huge!
As the storm winds down, it could still bring isolated thunderstorms to the British Isles according to the Euro CAPE model.

Quoting overwash12:
Wasn't Jacques Cousteau caught in a fierce Atlantic storm for three days,aboard the Calypso?

Hmmm... Think ya might be on to something.

A balmy overcast 35 in S C IL currently. Not a drop of sleet, rain, or snow from the system last night. Hope all of you in Mid South and Mid Atlantic keep your power.

Good job ILwthr, nc was wrong, got a response from Doc and everything civil, so far.

For you far faster weather researchers: any other similiarities between '93 and this year besides a big Jan. extratropical?
re: #64 PlazaRed

Absolutely agree, this storm would be devastating to Great Britain if it hit. So far, forecast appears it will mostly become (semi)stationary and ramp down... And good point about the Faeroe Islands you and MetTV mentioned, seems they'll get quite a blast from it...
Record highs in the U.S. outnumbered record lows yesterday 83-24. Cold snap is clearly winding down. Despite the cold, for the past 30 days, record highs beat record lows by a significant margin.
Quoting Neapolitan:
You've brought up some very valid points. However, it pays to remember that anthropogenic warming is--to use a phrase increasingly popular among scientists--"loading the dice" for such events to occur with greater frequency and intensity. And there is, of course, solid evidence that that is exactly what is happening. So while even before we humans started drastically changing the climate the weather would have occasionally rolled double sixes, our loading of the dice is why higher numbers have and will continue to come along more frequently.

NOTE: I'm not saying tomorrow's North Atlantic Superstorm will be "caused" by global warming. But I am saying that, in our warming world, every weather event is affected by that warming to a lesser or greater degree, and tomorrow's storm will be no exception.
Is there ever a day when your NOT sarcastic?.But I like your style though as I find it hilarious.And I'm not being sarcastic on that :).
Well, here come Round 2 for Raleigh area, except it's heavier this time. I think we'll see major icing all over the area.



ExtraTropical storm tracks.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


And that inconvenient, stubborn, road-block, history thing unfortunately goes a little further back than the late 1800's...




Only if i could like your post a million times.
I think the Atlantic storm is being caused by Very cold air from the ICE COVERED ARCTIC OCEAN moving south over the relatively milder waters of the North Atlantic and with the help from a winter jet stream!
Quoting overwash12:
I think the Atlantic storm is being caused by Very cold air from the ICE COVERED ARCTIC OCEAN moving south over the relatively milder waters of the North Atlantic and with the help from a winter jet stream!


Ever wonder what kind of storm would occur if an air mass from the ice covered arctic directly interacted with the tropical air mass?
Oh boy, I am starting to get emails and letters from colleges.

1.4" of snow in my area in SE MI and it is still snowing.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


ExtraTropical storm tracks.


Thanks FV great info
Quoting wxchaser97:
Oh boy, I am starting to get emails and letters from colleges.

1.4" of snow in my area in SE MI and it is still snowing.
That's awesome! By the time you're senior, you'll have TONS of emails and letters from colleges. I think I had letters from 10 different colleges and emails from 20 different college. Meanwhile, we're about to get major icing here in NC.
Quoting dabirds:
A balmy overcast 35 in S C IL currently. Not a drop of sleet, rain, or snow from the system last night. Hope all of you in Mid South and Mid Atlantic keep your power.

Good job ILwthr, nc was wrong, got a response from Doc and everything civil, so far.

For you far faster weather researchers: any other similiarities between '93 and this year besides a big Jan. extratropical?


Hey dabirds,
Funny you mentioned that about '93 - Have had a mild Winter here in SE LA, with no significant freezes yet at my location, only 3 light freezes and have not dropped into the 20's on my home thermo. So recently, I looked back at our local (Houma LA) records, found during DJF Meteorological Winter '92-93 we recorded NO FREEZING temps, the lowest being a 34F reading (although there were a few other mid-up 30's with frosty morns)...

HOWEVER, that season was bookended by two 27F readings - one on Nov 30th, the other on March 14 during Superstorm '93, lol! Not counting out a Winter blast just yet here.. Actually, being the Winter Fan / sicko that I am, hoping for it! Even if Mardi Gras might get a lil chilly for some...
;)
77) Do they have real time feedback on your finals, you must have done well! :)
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Ever wonder what kind of storm would occur if an air mass from the ice covered arctic directly interacted with the tropical air mass?
We could build a massive water heater,On the Isle of Newfoundland and pump it into the ocean... wait ,what the heck am I thinking!
Quoting wxchaser97:
Oh boy, I am starting to get emails and letters from colleges.

1.4" of snow in my area in SE MI and it is still snowing.

I got an email from 3 colleges so far... and snow starting here
Quoting overwash12:
It's almost believable that storms are becoming stronger in the Atlantic. But then there is this history thing! LOL


Record intensity need not be broken in order for storms to be "becoming stronger".

If there are 4 extra storms per year, and they are on average stronger than the long term average, then on average the storms are getting stronger and more frequent.

Similar reasoning applies with hurricanes. We need not have a Camille or Labor Day every year for hurricanes to be worse on average. A Sandy or an Isaac, not even "majors" by the current classification system, having every year or two would quickly add up to being much, much worse than the long term average in the existing records.

It's not just about minimum central low pressure, nor maximum winds, but size, duration, and forward movement speeds, and most of all in terms of human consequences is location.

I lifted this from Luisport at post 39:-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhmggMcJTPo&featur e= player_embedded ciclone Gong last saturday in Portugal

Although the above isnt a hurricane its what we get a lot of on the western edge of Europe.
Interesting that the locals hide from the effects, then come out and tidy the place up a bit like ants after something disturbed their nest. Well worth a watch, at least the first 10 minutes of it.

With this Atlantic storm, ( we could call it Thor or Oden, something powerful from the past.)
From an engineering point of view what seems apparent is that the west (US/Canada) side is going to pull a lot of air and not too cold waters which are part of the gulf stream according to the sages who can post maps on here, down into the mid Atlantic.
Meanwhile the East (Europes) side is going to throw warm air and water up into the North Atlantic. Iceland is in the way for a perfect circulation, so it gets warmed up as well and its not too cold at the moment anyway.
Now then, this is the second really big Atlantic storm in a few months, Sandy being the other. Could this become a "Trend?"
Quoting overwash12:
We could build a massive water heater,On the Isle of Newfoundland and pump it into the ocean... wait ,what the heck am I thinking!


LOL, or we could either build a dam, or get our Wunderground friend "cyclonebuster" to deploy a fleet of his tunnels between Iceland and Norway and block the AMOC from the havoc it's causing... that oughta do it...
;)

Alright, work calls,
G'day all!
Well let's hope that maybe the continuing drought forecast is wrong then, Doc. I was in NO in '93 just before the major festivities began that year. It is early this year, so no surprise if a little colder. I rem it was in 80s and humid in '93. Little later in Feb. that year I believe. Hope it gets cold for you, but turns nice for Mardi Gras, and the midwest gets some rains this year (and no more than minor flooding).
Quoting RTSplayer:


Record intensity need not be broken in order for storms to be "becoming stronger".

If there are 4 extra storms per year, and they are on average stronger than the long term average, then on average the storms are getting stronger and more frequent.

Similar reasoning applies with hurricanes. We need not have a Camille or Labor Day every year for hurricanes to be worse on average. A Sandy or an Isaac, not even "majors" by the current classification system, having every year or two would quickly add up to being much, much worse than the long term average in the existing records.

It's not just about minimum central low pressure, nor maximum winds, but size, duration, and forward movement speeds, and most of all in terms of human consequences is location.

I think neither is the case, we have weather and it can be tranquil at times and extreme at times. It does seem there is a pattern(cycles)in the long run.
impressive squall line on the latest GFS...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, here come Round 2 for Raleigh area, except it's heavier this time. I think we'll see major icing all over the area.



that looks like a heavy round. I saw online that there are already traffic accidents in Raleigh because of the roads
Seriously? haha

Guess that's why TWC had red over us on Wed. this morning, hydrus. (I think it was for Wed. anyway. Don't always pay a lot of attention to forecast more than 3 days out.)
re: 87. dabirds

Back in 1988, the 1st night parade here fell on Feb 5th.. and had to be cancelled / rescheduled as it got snowed out! Started as a hvy 2-day cold rain event, changed over to thick, large wet clumps of hvy snow at expected time of parade, lasted until nearly 3 AM next morn. I measured 3-4" snow accumulation in spots.
;)
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Ever wonder what kind of storm would occur if an air mass from the ice covered arctic directly interacted with the tropical air mass?


Sure! As Sandy was coming up the coast, I said something like "Wouldn't it bee cool if a cat 5 blew up suddenly in the gulf and the two did the fujiwara up and down the east coast as a subzero arctic front came down and buried Washington DC in 40 feet of snow!

Washingtonian took offense and has never forgiven me! And back then, I thought that that was a guy that lived in Washington state.

Anyways, it would be a fun weather event, No?
82. overwash12
"Ever wonder what kind of storm would occur if an air mass from the ice covered arctic directly interacted with the tropical air mass?"

Take a look at Hydus at:-89. hydrus

There's your Arctic air mass.
Now Homework for this weekend is :-
You have to put a hurricane in the gulf just under that lot centered south of Texas.

NB ( please note,) let us know in advance if you can do this as we need to take cover, (globally!)
Especially if you can conjure up a cat 5!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. Masters; If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms

If we assume that the current global warming signals = more intense winter storms (regardless of whether a natural cycle or un-natural one exacerbated by human carbon emissions), then this may have occurred in past eons during past warming events and we will see this same type of frequency-intensity in the coming decades.

At 51, I will be watching the data closely over the next 10-30 years (and witnessing the upcoming events).....God Willing....... :)



I'd like to see a 950 mb extra-tropical low barrel through the gulf in January with an arctic high to it's northeast and with an associated sub-tropical jet in the warm sector, we would see some really interesting weather here in Florida.
Quoting ncstorm:


that looks like a heavy round. I saw online that there are already traffic accidents in Raleigh because of the roads
Yeah, I'm seeing reports of accidents all over my Twitter timeline from my friends. Hopefully everybody is safe driving! I also hearing that Raleigh area is expecting between .1 to .25 inch of ice from the freezing rain, which is borderline major ice storm.
like the old ad used to say.."Come'On Down..........
Thanks for the update Doc!!

That sat image of the 1993 extra-tropical storm is beautifully devastating. Incredible.
Dont park under any tree's with this ICE coming down............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1259 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

...A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH VERY COLD AIR IN
PLACE... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION....MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LIGHT WINTRY
MIXTURE WILL LIKELY END AS AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
EVENING.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
225 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

DCZ001-MDZ009-013-VAZ042-052>057-501-502-260200-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130126T0200Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-PRINCE GEORGES-LOUDOUN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...LEESBURG...
MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON
225 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMMUTE.
GFS says more snow saturday......................
GFS for sunday..................................
The CPC says the Great Lakes are in for cold air for a long while. This is after the warm-up this weekend, of course. The 3-7 day and 8-14 day hazard outlooks both have all of Michigan in the much below average temperature category.

I'm surprised no one has said this yet...


KHAAAAAN!
in 2 weeks might get interesting in the Northeast....
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I'm seeing reports of accidents all over my Twitter timeline from my friends. Hopefully everybody is safe driving! I also hearing that Raleigh area is expecting between .1 to .25 inch of ice from the freezing rain, which is borderline major ice storm.


have a kerosene heater handy or wood for the fireplace..it might be some major power outages coming yall way
gee........................................
For those interested, I have written a blog on the latest happenings in Southern California

Link
Traffic Cam...Raleigh NC.........................
dont look too bad here..........
Quoting ncstorm:


have a kerosene heater handy or wood for the fireplace..it might be some major power outages coming yall way
Yeah, we're expecting loss of power so my parents got us all prepared for that event if that was to occurs. Right now, freezing rain have arrived and everything is already frozen. I think we'll be dealing with heavy ice by the time this storm is done in a couple of hours.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is there ever a day when your NOT sarcastic?.But I like your style though as I find it hilarious.And I'm not being sarcastic on that :).
Wash, I have re-read Nea's comment twice and I don't see the sarcasm. Maybe you read sarcastically.
looks ok in Richmond VA..................
Baltimore....I-70..............................
Quoting LargoFl:
looks ok in Richmond VA..................


Largo, that could be ice not just wet pavement.
Our Home Office closed our client center in Greensboro NC at 2:30 ET because of weather.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Largo, that could be ice not just wet pavement.
Our Home Office closed our client center in Greensboro NC at 2:30 ET because of weather.
yes your right..its sure cold enough..most of the places ive been looking at say..ICE is the big problem not snow..wait til the sun goes down and it gets colder whew
looks mostly like a light snow event for the midlantic states..but ice is going to be a big problem..i used to HATE driving on it..you never know when that skid is going to happen
Sun has popped out, up to 37. Hopefully will stay out for Stan's send off tomorrow. Post Dispatch will have a special commemorative section on "The Man" in their Sunday edition.

Edit: anyone wishing to see services, both Cardinals and StL Archdiocese websites will stream them, KMOX radio will broadcast as well at 11 a.m. CST
Quoting Titoxd:
I'm surprised no one has said this yet...


KHAAAAAN!

KHANNNNNN!!!!!!!!
Quoting wxchaser97:
Oh boy, I am starting to get emails and letters from colleges.

1.4" of snow in my area in SE MI and it is still snowing.
Congratulations! You are really intelligent I know you are going to get more letters but think wisely which one you choose:)
Quoting kwgirl:
Wash, I have re-read Nea's comment twice and I don't see the sarcasm. Maybe you read sarcastically.

Somebody once said to a friend of mine.
"You are talking in riddles!"
To which he replied:-
"No its you who is listening in riddles."
Central North Carolina is getting some pretty significant icing. Going to be some big impacts on the roads and power system. I'm positive this includes you Bluestorm.

Quoting flcanes:

KHANNNNNN!!!!!!!!
Dammit Jim
Quoting Bluestorm5:
That's awesome! By the time you're senior, you'll have TONS of emails and letters from colleges. I think I had letters from 10 different colleges and emails from 20 different college. Meanwhile, we're about to get major icing here in NC.


Quoting Doppler22:

I got an email from 3 colleges so far... and snow starting here


Quoting allancalderini:
Congratulations! You are really intelligent I know you are going to get more letters but think wisely which one you choose:)


Thanks all 3 of you. I will choose whatever gives me the best offer but also has the programs that I want.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes your right..its sure cold enough..most of the places ive been looking at say..ICE is the big problem not snow..wait til the sun goes down and it gets colder whew


Yup it's not gonna be pretty..
Quoting wxchaser97:
Central North Carolina is getting some pretty significant icing. Going to be some big impacts on the roads and power system. I'm positive this includes you Bluestorm.



Yeah, I posted that earlier. We're getting heavy freezing rain right now and everything is freezing when the rain hit the ground.
It's snowing where we are.
Quoting dabirds:
A balmy overcast 35 in S C IL currently. Not a drop of sleet, rain, or snow from the system last night. Hope all of you in Mid South and Mid Atlantic keep your power.

Good job ILwthr, nc was wrong, got a response from Doc and everything civil, so far.

For you far faster weather researchers: any other similiarities between '93 and this year besides a big Jan. extratropical?


I had some tricky driving this morning. Half inch of snow on top of some freezing drizzle. Not a lot to get excited about but everything did freeze on instant contact due to the cold temps we have experienced over the last few days.

NCstorm does well in his arguments, I may not agree with all his ideas, but who of us in here agree on everything right? He certainly constructs his arguments better than most that supports some of his same ideas and he does so with class. Constructive criticism is a must in science and he certainly brings some of that to the table. I do enjoy the discussions between him and Nea.

I was only 11 when the Super storm hit, and I do remember being extremely upset that the snow missed me and it was cold and parts of that winter were snowy for us. I think we had over 30" that year, then the rains came and the combination led to the Great Mississippi Flood. We had a cool year that year as well. Wet and cool. We could certainly use that this year as well... Crossing fingers, knocking on wood...
Quoting Grothar:
It's snowing where we are.

Thank God for that!
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Yeah, I posted that earlier. We're getting heavy freezing rain right now and everything is freezing when the rain hit the ground.

I realized you posted it earlier, just after I posted it. Hopefully you don't lose power, and you can't get a day off from school tomorrow.
Quoting Grothar:
It's snowing where we are.
kwgirl....Guess we better not rub it in...Huh?
Don't you dare turn to rain so close to me.

It's mostly sleet again now and it's not melting on ground so it's filling up. I think we got about 1/2 to 3/4 inch of sleet on ground right now, plus ice layer on top of that from freezing rain. Here's the picture of what's going on here.







Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Don't you dare turn to rain so close to me.



The rain says to your comment...



The ice is changing to rain as it nears the coast
Quoting wxchaser97:

I realized you posted it earlier, just after I posted it. Hopefully you don't lose power, and you can't get a day off from school tomorrow.
It's actually a good thing we didn't lose a school day because we will have to make it up during spring break.
Quoting LargoFl:
in 2 weeks might get interesting in the Northeast....


I have 10" of snow drought here
Quoting Titoxd:
I'm surprised no one has said this yet...


KHAAAAAN!


I did text that to my daughter in high school, just so her friends might peek at her phone and discover she was brought into the world by a nerd :)
If I may........"Spanning the globe to bring you the constant variety of sport,...The thrill of victory,...and the agony of defeat...the human drama of athletic competition
Just my luck...rain (not freezing rain) at 32F.

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

6-day forecast for 960 mb forecast (then 950-mb only 6-hours later) -- track from Detroit thru Ontario to Quebec. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/294910844452618 240/photo/1

41 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 12z uncorks another historical strength extratropical cyclone, this time over Quebec. Remember the Cleveland SuperBomb?


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just my luck...rain (not freezing rain) at 32F.

Trollface.jpg
That sucks, for you...

You will probably get freezing rain and/or sleet eventually.
Our beast is at 984 mb

Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's mostly sleet again now and it's not melting on ground so it's filling up. I think we got about 1/2 to 3/4 inch of sleet on ground right now, plus ice layer on top of that from freezing rain. Here's the picture of what's going on here.







Cant help but say this! But is the second picture in the list the aftermath of earthquake damage.
Speaking only from a builders labourers point of view of course.
I know this was mentioned earlier today, but here again for those who a) missed it and b) care:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
949 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013 /1049 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013/

...CHICAGO OFFICIALLY OBSERVES FIRST DAILY ONE INCH SNOWFALL...

THROUGH 930 AM...CHICAGO OHARE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS OBSERVED
1.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TODAY...JANUARY 25TH. THIS IS THE FIRST DAY
OF THE 2012-2013 WINTER WHERE CHICAGO OBSERVED OVER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL. THIS ENDS THE RECORD STREAKS FOR BOTH THE LATEST FIRST
ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL AND THE LONGEST STREAK WITHOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL.

LATEST FIRST CALENDAR DAY ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:

RANK DATE
--------------------
1. JAN 25 2013
2. JAN 17 1899
3. JAN 16 2002
4. JAN 15 1890
5. JAN 14 1937


MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:

RANK # OF DAYS END OF STREAK
------------------------------------
1. 335 JAN 25 2013
2. 319 JAN 6 1940
3. 315 DEC 7 1958
4. 307 DEC 30 1931
5. 305 JAN 15 2002

THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR CHICAGO THROUGH 930 AM THIS MORNING
NOW STANDS AT 2.8 INCHES


61.6° - .30 of rain today...
ILwthr - nothing on nc other than he'd he'd told ya Doc wouldn't answer you and ducking out because blog would light up. Agree with you on rest, sorry if came off wrong way.

Surprised if you had a little glaze we didn't get anything, but... Think we'll get some Sunday?

Was cool that summer, seems might have been one later that was maybe a little cooler, but certainly not as much rain (except on weekends, I rem it rained almost every weekend after Easter until late July that year).

Knocking on wood as well, west of us really needs it, and we could use a little as well.
139) 144) The ski jumper was bad, but the hurling guy getting the stick to the face was the worst. That had to hurt!
Quoting PedleyCA:
Wide World of Sports Intro 1978


The link won't open for me.

Is that the one with "The thrill of victory.... and.. the agony of defeat" (?)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I know this was mentioned earlier today, but here again for those who a) missed it and b) care:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
949 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013 /1049 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013/

...CHICAGO OFFICIALLY OBSERVES FIRST DAILY ONE INCH SNOWFALL...

THROUGH 930 AM...CHICAGO OHARE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS OBSERVED
1.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TODAY...JANUARY 25TH. THIS IS THE FIRST DAY
OF THE 2012-2013 WINTER WHERE CHICAGO OBSERVED OVER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL. THIS ENDS THE RECORD STREAKS FOR BOTH THE LATEST FIRST
ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL AND THE LONGEST STREAK WITHOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL.

LATEST FIRST CALENDAR DAY ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:

RANK DATE
--------------------
1. JAN 25 2013
2. JAN 17 1899
3. JAN 16 2002
4. JAN 15 1890
5. JAN 14 1937


MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:

RANK # OF DAYS END OF STREAK
------------------------------------
1. 335 JAN 25 2013
2. 319 JAN 6 1940
3. 315 DEC 7 1958
4. 307 DEC 30 1931
5. 305 JAN 15 2002

THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR CHICAGO THROUGH 930 AM THIS MORNING
NOW STANDS AT 2.8 INCHES

At first glance, I was surprised to see 1899 on that list, especially with the most powerful McFarland Event in US history occurring just over two weeks later. Just goes to show the speed at which things can dramatically change in the world of meteorology.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


The link won't open for me.

Is that the one with "The thrill of victory.... and.. the agony of defeat" (?)


Must be losing my touch. Try it now.....
Just placed under a Winter Weather Advisory.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just placed under a Winter Weather Advisory.


not the Wilmington metro area... idk/c where you live
Quoting PedleyCA:


Must be losing my touch. Try it now.....


It works now.. thanks.

And, I wouldn't want to be that skier.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


not the Wilmington metro area... idk/c where you live
But the county north of Wilmington is under Winter Weather Advisory. I'm assuming that's where he live.
Todays Forecast is 75 - What were they thinking? It is 61.6 at my place and still light rain (.31 so far).

Riverside (KRAL)
Elevation
817 ft
Now
Light Rain
Light Rain
Temperature
62 °F
Feels Like 62 °F
Wind(mph)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY THREE (09F)
6:00 AM FST January 26 2013
======================================

Southern Cooks Island Alerts
-----------------------------
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, TAKUTEA AND ATIU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MAUKE, MITIARO, MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Garry (975 hPa) located near 16.7S 160.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots. Position good based on hourly GOES visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
90 NM from the center elsewhere

System has become disorganized significantly past 6 hours. low level circulation center exposed with deep convection displaced to east. System lies to the east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment. CIMMS indicate weak upper divergence aloft low level circulation center with strong upper divergence to southeast of low level circulation center. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 15 NM sheared distance from deep convection edge yielding DT=3.5. MET=4.0 and PT=4.0. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it south southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.6S 159.7W - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.7S 158.7W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 24.6S 155.4W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Just saw yours Pedley, didn't have the hurling guy, not sure when they put that in. Rem they'd always show a match around St. Pat's, it being an Irish sport.
162. wxmod
Rainforest coast of CA and desert coast of CA:

Quoting wxmod:
Rainforest coast of CA and desert coast of CA:



could ya make it smaller????

sarcasm flag on
In southern Ontario, about 25 klics north of the north shore of Lake Ontario, we have snow and cold and an 80-car pile-up on HWY 401 at Newcastle.

Hwy 401 closed for 80-car pile-up

Quoting FLWaterFront:


It works now.. thanks.

And, I wouldn't want to be that skier.


Watch This One - Here he is today
skier today
Radar says it's icing here. Outside weather disagrees.

Quoting wxmod:
Rainforest coast of CA and desert coast of CA:


Now then WXMOD, with no disrespect and asking you as a person who "we dont know who you are and we don't know what you do!" ( your words,) can you honestly tell us that any power that you know of, or have an inkling exists could possibly have influenced or caused the occurrence of this North Atlantic storm of about one million square miles in area?
Bearing in mind that the average human is no more than 6 foot tall and can at best make its presence known over a very small area globally.
I ask you from the standpoint of an impartial observer, when you look at this type of natural phenomenon, how on earth could a few few vapor trails create this?
Then again I could be wrong, deluded, and under the influence of consciousness modifying substances, which are clouding my ability to comprehend the powers of humanity in the face of natural forces!
Perfect Mountain biking weather here today:

High 70's and dew points in the 40's to 50's

169. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
For those interested, I have written a blog on the latest happenings in Southern California

Link


Tom, you are looking for a text book explanation of a man made trough that models can't possibly predict. If you pay attention to the California coast over a long period of time, you will see a ton of inexplicable troughs straight up and down just off shore in the Pacific. Could be ship pollution that causes this. I used to think it was an underwater volcano, but satellite photos show plenty of ship particulates to do the job.
the 12z and 18z GFS have come farther south in its run as it previously thought early this week..the NAM is what it is..a "NAM" and failed with the southern forecast..every dang gone county in NC except my county, Brunswick and Columbus county is either under a winter weather advisory or warning..

GFS is predicting temperatures over 15 degrees above average next week for Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

172. wxmod
Quoting PlazaRed:

Now then WXMOD, with no disrespect and asking you as a person who "we dont know who you are and we don't know what you do!" ( your words,) can you honestly tell us that any power that you know of, or have an inkling exists could possibly have influenced or caused the occurrence of this North Atlantic storm of about one million square miles in area?
Bearing in mind that the average human is no more than 6 foot tall and can at best make its presence known over a very small area globally.
I ask you from the standpoint of an impartial observer, when you look at this type of natural phenomenon, how on earth could a few few vapor trails create this?
Then again I could be wrong, deluded, and under the influence of consciousness modifying substances, which are clouding my ability to comprehend the powers of humanity in the face of natural forces!


In no way shape or form would I suggest that the Atlantic storm that is brewing is caused by jet trails. People are capable of nudging storm tracks and influencing their intensity by whitening clouds, darkening clouds or seeding clouds. I've showed you plenty of examples. As far as I can tell, people have had no success in creating storms or causing them to spin. I could be wrong though.
As Jeff Masters always suggests, mega storms may be becoming more frequent because of climatic changes caused by people. There's no telling how serious these storms could get, because climate change is an open ended process.
You say I should compare the size of a human with the size of a storm. Here's the problem with that: a freighter that you can't even see in a MODIS satellite photo, even though it's a half mile long, can produce a cloud 50 miles wide and a thousand miles long. That's just one ship hauling ipods, tires, steel and applejuice from China. If one of those items is headed for your house, you are having an influence on the weather. What are we at now? 7 billion people? That's a lot of 6 foot humans changing the weather.
173. wxmod
Quoting PedleyCA:


could ya make it smaller????

sarcasm flag on


Sorry. Need magnifier.
Quoting dabirds:
Just saw yours Pedley, didn't have the hurling guy, not sure when they put that in. Rem they'd always show a match around St. Pat's, it being an Irish sport.


That version was labeled as 1978....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS is predicting temperatures over 15 degrees above average next week for Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.



Our local forecast has backed off those 15 degree above average temps .. only calling for highs Tuesday of 40 .. 7 degrees above normal ..
I think I found Jose, lol:



The sad thing is that JTWC currently has this listed as a 65kt typhoon as of just a couple hours ago.
Quoting wxmod:


Tom, you are looking for a text book explanation of a man made trough that models can't possibly predict. If you pay attention to the California coast over a long period of time, you will see a ton of inexplicable troughs straight up and down just off shore in the Pacific. Could be ship pollution that causes this. I used to think it was an underwater volcano, but satellite photos show plenty of ship particulates to do the job.
No, just no.

If you pay attention to the California coast enough, you'd know the real reason we see so many cut-off lows is because of the semi-permanent ridging which exists along and just off the west coast of North America. This semi-permanent ridging along the sub-tropical waters of the east side of the Ocean is inherent to all Ocean basins. This is true because of the natural ridging that develops in the sub-tropics from the Coriolis effect, and additionally from the cold boundary currents which form along the Eastern side of the World's oceans (also a result of the Coriolis effect). The semi-permanent ridging along and off the west coast of California means that troughs have a harder time digging into this region, and when they do they often get "cut-off" by ridging filling in behind the trough.

500mb Ridge Axis visible off and along the West Coast




The semi-permanent ridging also explains why the ship contrails which you are fixated on are so common off the west Coast. The semi-permanent ridging provides a a stable, shallow layer of moisture. Ship exhaust (which includes water vapor, since water is a byproduct of combustion) then forms contrails if the air is humid enough -- which it often is in the low levels of the atmosphere. The semi-permanent ridging then allows these contrails to persist because of the stabler atmosphere associated with ridging.


Mean Sea Level Pressure

178. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
No, just no.

If you pay attention to the California coast enough, you'd know the real reason we see so many cut-off lows is because of the semi-permanent ridging which exists along and just off the west coast of North America. This semi-permanent ridging along the sub-tropical waters of the east side of the Ocean is inherent to all Ocean basins. Partially because of the natural ridging that develops in the sub-tropics from the Coriolis effect, and additionally from the cold boundary currents which form along the Eastern side of the World's oceans (also a result of the Coriolis effect). The semi-permanent ridging along and off the west coast of California means that trough have a harder time digging into this region, and when they do they often get "cut-off" by ridging filling in behind the trough.




The semi-permanent ridging also explains why the ship contrails which you are fixated on are so common off the west Coast. The semi-permanent ridging provides a a stable, shallow layer of moisture. Ship exhaust (which includes water vapor, since water is a byproduct of combustion) then forms contrails if the air is humid enough. The stable air mass allows these contrails to persist, without little interference from variable winds.


Tom, Why aren't there redwoods growing in southern California. The forests of northern CA are taking an unprecedented beating by year after year of drought. The forces that allowed those trees to grow to record size have been seriously interfered with in the last thirty years. Something is very clearly changed. It is not a text book.
Quoting wxmod:


Tom, Why aren't there redwoods growing in southern California. The forests of northern CA are taking an unprecedented beating by year after year of drought. The forces that allowed those trees to grow to record size have been seriously interfered with in the last thirty years. Something is very clearly changed. It is not a text book.
What does the redwoods have to do with the subject Tom is trying to explain to you?
Quoting wxmod:


Tom, Why aren't there redwoods growing in southern California. The forests of northern CA are taking an unprecedented beating by year after year of drought. The forces that allowed those trees to grow to record size have been seriously interfered with in the last thirty years. Something is very clearly changed. It is not a text book.
Redwoods haven't grown in southern California for thousands of years. Climate is too warm and dry here, and it's been that way since long before man started making contrails.
181. txjac
I am so jealous of you with snow ...got up to over 80F here in Houston today. Maybe I should plan a trip to see my brother in Ohio?
182. wxmod
Quoting Bluestorm5:
What does the redwoods have to do with the subject Tom is trying to explain to you?


Boy, I'll tell ya! You guys are hard. I wonder how many of you see the writing on the ground. The plants that grow are the written language of the weather. Especially the forest tells what the average weather for an area is over recent history. Bigger trees need lots of water and nutrients. Thick debris and soil indicate that a forest hasn't burned in a long time. These tell way more about climate than text books.
Quoting wxmod:


In no way shape or form would I suggest that the Atlantic storm that is brewing is caused by jet trails. People are capable of nudging storm tracks and influencing their intensity by whitening clouds, darkening clouds or seeding clouds. I've showed you plenty of examples. As far as I can tell, people have had no success in creating storms or causing them to spin. I could be wrong though.
As Jeff Masters always suggests, mega storms may be becoming more frequent because of climatic changes caused by people. There's no telling how serious these storms could get, because climate change is an open ended process.
You say I should compare the size of a human with the size of a storm. Here's the problem with that: a freighter that you can't even see in a MODIS satellite photo, even though it's a half mile long, can produce a cloud 50 miles wide and a thousand miles long. That's just one ship hauling ipods, tires, steel and applejuice from China. If one of those items is headed for your house, you are having an influence on the weather. What are we at now? 7 billion people? That's a lot of 6 foot humans changing the weather.

now calm down aq bit!!!
These humans may think they are in control of the planet but they are only for the time being in control of the flow of information over it.
I basically dont really give a damn what the cause might be for things! Its the outcome of things that matters?
In order to keep the peace I suggest that we keep our eyes on what is visual in the real world! This is limited to everyday events and weather is one of them.
If the forces that be are having a go at messing with the global weather systems, then let them consider this!
What was there yesterday is gone, what is here now is observable and what will be here tomorrow is anybody's guess!

184. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
Redwoods haven't grown in southern California for thousands of years. Climate is too warm and dry here, and it's been that way since long before man started making contrails.


LA had a reputation for being nothing but sunglasses and Disneyland. Now I understand the chamber of commerce is trying to sell it as a tree city.
Meanwhile, Redwoods a thousand years old are struggling for survival.
If you spend all your time on a computer making models, how would you see this?
Quoting wxmod:


Boy, I'll tell ya! You guys are hard. I wonder how many of you see the writing on the ground. The plants that grow are the written language of the weather. Especially the forest tells what the average weather for an area is over recent history. Bigger trees need lots of water and nutrients. Thick debris and soil indicate that a forest hasn't burned in a long time. These tell way more about climate than text books.
No, it's you that is being difficult. You are not staying on topic and backing up your answers or facts.
HHHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLPPPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!!
Somebody get us out of this scenario!!!
Can we please get back to the Atlantic storm and other things pertinent?
This pseudo psychological tampering is just so boring!
I'm out of here until tomorrow about 10 hours from now.
Happy vapor trails!
Quoting wxmod:


LA had a reputation for being nothing but sunglasses and Disneyland. Now I understand the chamber of commerce is trying to sell it as a tree city.
Meanwhile, Redwoods a thousand years old are struggling for survival.
If you spend all your time on a computer making models, how would you see this?
Wtf are you talking about?

Redwoods do not live in Los Angeles. I know this, not because of computer models but because I have actually been to Los Angeles. I have also been to the areas in central and northern California where they do naturally exist -- they seemed pretty healthy to me.
189. etxwx
No injuries but some minor damage reported.
Small earthquake shakes East Texas

SHELBY COUNTY, TX (KTRE) -
Updated: Jan 25, 2013 5:09 PM CST
An earthquake of moderate magnitude was detected in Shelby County early Friday morning, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Seismometers detected a 4.1 magnitude temblor around 1:01 a.m., about 2 miles west of Timpson.

Larry Burnes, Timpson's emergency management coordinator, said even though last night's quake wasn't the strongest in the last year in the last year and a half, it lasted the longest.

"Probably 30 to 40 seconds maybe a minute, one of the charts that I pulled the information off of showed it about a minute long," Burnes said.

The USGS reported the tremor's depth was measured about 4 kilometers below the surface of the Earth.

The Shelby County and Rusk County Sheriff's offices confirm no injuries have been reported. Homeowners reported minor cracks in drywall and a dollar store in Timpson was cleaning a mess after merchandise fell from shelves, according to Sheriff's officials.

Friday's tremor follows a weaker 2.8 magnitude earthquake reported in the same area in December. Seven quakes have been detected in the region since May 2012.

RECENT EAST TEXAS EARTHQUAKE TIMELINE
•May 10, 2012 - (3.9) NW of Timpson.
•May 17, 2012 - (4.8) ENE of Timpson.
•May 20, 2012 - (2.7) SSW of Timpson.
•May 26, 2012 - (2.5) SE of Timpson.
•June 16, 2012 - (2.1) SSW of Timpson.
•December 7, 2012 - (2.8) SW of Timpson.
•January 25, 2013 - (4.1) W of Timpson.

The Texas State Historical Association cites a 80-kilometer segment of the Mount Enterprise fault system which caused earthquakes in 1891 and 1981, in Rusk and Center and Jacksonville, respectively.
The United States government thought that they could manipulate the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes back in the 1970s. Project Stormfury. But it was later found out that the observed weakening in the seeded hurricanes was due to natural causes, namely eye wall replacement cycles. Oh dear.

Anyway, that's just one of the many holes in any weather modification theory. I can name more.
191. wxmod
Rain in the deep, deep desert.

Quoting KoritheMan:
The United States government thought that they could manipulate the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes back in the 1970s. Project Stormfury. But it was later found out that the observed weakening in the seeded hurricanes was due to natural causes, namely eye wall replacement cycles. Oh dear.

Anyway, that's just one of the many holes in any weather modification theory. I can name more.

wxmod, as someone who sounded a lot like you back in the 70s, when THEY were messing with the weather AND mind control, i feel your anxiety. but you are doing your part, and the world will go on, even better when you aren't quite so excitable about it.
193. wxmod
Quoting plutorising:

wxmod,the world will go on, even better when you aren't quite so excitable about it.


Why would you say that?
Quoting wxmod:
Rain in the deep, deep desert.


Ok, it is raining in the desert. I guess it is time to go hit the panic button.
195. etxwx
Brazil to survey Amazon rainforest
BBC 25 January 2013
The Brazilian government has announced that it plans to undertake the huge task of recording an inventory of the trees in the Amazon rainforest. The Forestry Ministry said the census would take four years to complete, and would provide detailed data on tree species, soils and biodiversity in the world's largest rainforest. The last exhaustive survey was carried out more than 30 years ago. In that time the rainforest has become increasingly threatened by logging.

The Brazilian government made a commitment in 2009 to reduce deforestation in the Amazon by 80% by the year 2020. According to the government, in 2012 the destruction of the Amazon rainforest reached its lowest level since monitoring began more than two decades ago. But ministers said they would be able to act more effectively if they had more accurate data.

"We are going to come to know the rainforest from within," Forestry Minister Antonio Carlos Hummel said announcing the inventory.

Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira said it would help the government to formulate environmental policies.

"In international debates about climate change, for example, we will know how much forest we have and what state it is in (...), we'll discover species, and gain knowledge about species becoming extinct, as well as information about the distribution of the forest and its potential economic use", Ms Teixeira said.

Brazil's national development bank said it would contribute $33m to the project.

The last detailed survey of the Brazilian Amazon was carried out in the 1970s, and its results published in 1983. Forestry Minister Hummel said partial results would be published yearly, as it progressed.

Link
?????????????

Russia Orders Obama: Tell World About Aliens, Or We Will

A stunning Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) report on Prime Minister Medvedev’s [photo top right] agenda at the World Economic Forum (WEF) this week states that Russia will warn President Obama that the “time has come” for the world to know the truth about aliens, and if the United States won’t participate in the announcement, the Kremlin will do so on its own.

The WEF (The Forum) is a Swiss non-profit foundation, based in Cologny, Geneva and describes itself as an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.
The Forum is best known for its annual meeting in Davos, a mountain resort in Graubünden, in the eastern Alps region of Switzerland. The meeting brings together some 2,500 top business leaders, international political leaders, selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world, including health and the environment.
Medvedev is scheduled to open this years Forum where as many as 50 heads of government, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and Britain’s David Cameron, will attend the five-day meeting that begins on 23 January.

Full STORY Link
Quoting stormchaser19:
?????????????

Russia Orders Obama: Tell World About Aliens, Or We Will

A stunning Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) report on Prime Minister Medvedev’s [photo top right] agenda at the World Economic Forum (WEF) this week states that Russia will warn President Obama that the “time has come” for the world to know the truth about aliens, and if the United States won’t participate in the announcement, the Kremlin will do so on its own.

The WEF (The Forum) is a Swiss non-profit foundation, based in Cologny, Geneva and describes itself as an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.
The Forum is best known for its annual meeting in Davos, a mountain resort in Graubünden, in the eastern Alps region of Switzerland. The meeting brings together some 2,500 top business leaders, international political leaders, selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world, including health and the environment.
Medvedev is scheduled to open this years Forum where as many as 50 heads of government, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and Britain’s David Cameron, will attend the five-day meeting that begins on 23 January.

Full STORY Link


I think wxmod subscribes to the use of HARRP, the conspiricy theories that is.
Oh look it's focused over Southern California


Oh lookie here, it's centred over Southern Europe and Northern Eastern Australia.



I hope it doesn't move any further south, I don't want to get my brain fried.
Quoting stormchaser19:
?????????????

Russia Orders Obama: Tell World About Aliens, Or We Will

A stunning Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) report on Prime Minister Medvedev%u2019s [photo top right] agenda at the World Economic Forum (WEF) this week states that Russia will warn President Obama that the %u201Ctime has come%u201D for the world to know the truth about aliens, and if the United States won%u2019t participate in the announcement, the Kremlin will do so on its own.

The WEF (The Forum) is a Swiss non-profit foundation, based in Cologny, Geneva and describes itself as an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.
The Forum is best known for its annual meeting in Davos, a mountain resort in Graubnden, in the eastern Alps region of Switzerland. The meeting brings together some 2,500 top business leaders, international political leaders, selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world, including health and the environment.
Medvedev is scheduled to open this years Forum where as many as 50 heads of government, including Germany%u2019s Angela Merkel and Britain%u2019s David Cameron, will attend the five-day meeting that begins on 23 January.

Full STORY Link
Finally.I have always believe we are not alone.
Guess who got snow?

Quoting allancalderini:
Finally.I have always believe we are not alone.


I think the same, but this need to be verified..
203. txjac
Quoting AztecCe:
Guess who got snow?



Where are you located Aztec?
I believe bombgenesis has begun.

Quoting stormchaser19:


I think the same, but this need to be verified..
Agree but I really think the aliens exist as the universe is to big for only us to exist.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #26
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY TWO (09F)
12:00 PM FST January 26 2013
======================================

Southern Cooks Island Alerts
-----------------------------
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, TAKUTEA AND ATIU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MAUKE, MITIARO, MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (980 hPa) located near 17.5S 160.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center elsewhere

System has become significantly disorganized past 12 hours. Low level circulation center exposed with deep convection displaced to east. System lies to east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 60 NM sheared distance from deep convection edge, yielding DT=2.0. MET=3.0 and PT=3.0. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it south southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.7S 159.2W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.0S 158.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
207. txjac
Quoting allancalderini:
Agree but I really think the aliens exist as the universe is to big for only us to exist.


Any ideas as to where they live now? I'm also convinced we are not alone ...but cant fathom where they are
...
Quoting txjac:


Where are you located Aztec?

NE North Carolina, by Elizabeth City
Good evening all.

A storm system associated with a cold front is currently hundreds of miles northwest of Hawaii; it is expected to move generally eastward and bring heavy rainfall in my area by next Sunday and Monday. Wet season is overdue for Hawaii but should alleviate some drought areas throughout the islands by the next few months. Calm weather should return by middle of next week.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST FRI JAN 25 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI...NIIHAU AND OAHU...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AND MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY. A BAND OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE SLOWING
FRONT PROVIDING A FURTHER FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INTENSE RAIN
RATES...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

HIZ001>011-261445-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FF.A.0001.130127T2200Z-130129T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
335 PM HST FRI JAN 25 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KAUAI...NIIHAU AND OAHU

* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS. REMEMBER
THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE RAINING HEAVILY WHERE YOU ARE FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BURKE
*** JOKES ***

The Bacon Tree

Two Mexicans are stuck in the desert after crossing into the United States, wandering aimlessly and starving. They are about to just lie down and await death when all of a sudden Luis says . . .
"Hey, Pepe, do you smell what I smell? Ees bacon, I theenk."
"Ees, Luis, eet sure smell like bacon."
With renewed hope they struggle up the next sand dune, and there in the distance is a tree loaded with bacon.
There's raw bacon, there's fried bacon, back bacon, double-smoked bacon . . . every imaginable kind of cured pork.
"Pepe, Pepe, wees saved! Ees a bacon tree!"
"Luis, maybe ees a meerage? Wees in the desert, don't forget."
"Pepe, since when deed you ever hear of a meerage that smell like bacon? Ees no meerage, ees a bacon tree!"
And with that, Luis staggers towards the tree. He gets to within 5 metres, Pepe crawling close behind, when suddenly a machine gun opens up, and Luis drops like a wet sock. Mortally wounded, he warns Pepe with his dying breath . . .
"Pepe . . . Go back, man, you was right, ees not a bacon tree!"
"Luis, Luis, MI amigo . . . what ees it?"
"Pepe . . . ees not a bacon tree. Ees . . .


Ees . . .

Ees . . .



Ees . . .

Ees . . .


Ees . . .




Ees . . . a ham bush . . ."


********************************************

A man and his wife were sitting in the living room and he said to her, "Just so you know, I never want to live in a vegetative state, dependent on some machine and fluids from a bottle. If that ever happens, just pull the plug."
His wife got up, unplugged the TV and threw out all of his beer.

*****************************************

In the beginning God created day and night. He created day for footy matches, going to the beach and barbies. He created night for going prawning, sleeping and barbies. God saw that it was good.
Evening came and morning came and it was the second Day.

On the Second Day God created water - for surfing, swimming and barbies on the beach. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Third Day.

On the Third Day God created the Earth to bring forth plants - to provide tobacco, malt and yeast for beer and wood for barbies. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Fourth Day.

On the Fourth Day God created animals and crustaceans for chops, sausages, steak and prawns for barbies. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Fifth Day.

On the Fifth day God created a bloke - to go to the footy, enjoy the beach, drink the beer and eat the meat and prawns at barbies. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Sixth Day.

On the Sixth Day God saw that this bloke was lonely and needed someone to go to the footy, surf, drink beer, eat and stand around the barbie with. So God created Mates, and God saw that they were good blokes. God saw that it was good. Evening came and morning came and it was the Seventh Day.

On the Seventh Day God looked around at the twinkling barbie fires, heard the hiss of opening beer cans and the raucous laughter of all the Blokes, smelled the aroma of grilled chops and sizzling prawns and God saw that it was good. well almost good. God saw that the blokes were tired and needed a rest.

So God created Sheilas - to clean the house, bear children, wash, cook and clean the barbie. God saw that it was not just good, it was better than that, it was bloody great!

IT WAS AUSTRALIA !!

HAPPY AUSTRALIA DAY EVERYONE!!!!!
although it's not much snow (about half inch) it caused 5 accidents, 2 major in a 6 exit stretch...

very sparkly snow...


I took that pic while on CT I-95
Saw this tweet today, not because I follow Donald Trump, but because Ryan Maue (another hopelessly blind person in GW denial, right alongside Joe B) retweeted it






The stupid thing about someone making a sarcastic comment like this is that in the last few decades, the globe has warmed, and the region which has warmed the fastest is the Arctic. As the Arctic has warmed faster than any other region in the planet, it has favored more blocking in this region, and presumably more stratospheric warming events (they've been occurring with increased frequency in the last decade). Both blocking and stratospheric warming events (which lead to more Arctic blocking) in the Arctic region decrease the pressure gradient between the higher and lower latitudes, creating a weaker jet stream, allowing for the jet to amplify more. When the jet stream is more amplified than usual, we see more polar air mass invasions into the lower latitudes.

So yes, Dumbass Trump, if Global Warming continues as it has, you can expect more brutal cold events across mid-latitude regions during the winter.

...you gotta love it when sarcasm fails.
Quoting allancalderini:
Finally.I have always believe we are not alone.


Quoting LargoFl:
in 2 weeks might get interesting in the Northeast....

I can only hope... there is sooooo little snow here... :(
Quoting stormchaser19:




Powerful extratropical low over the North Atlantic:

219. wxmod
Quoting AussieStorm:
I think wxmod subscribes to the use of HARRP, the conspiricy theories that is.
Oh look it's focused over Southern California


Oh lookie here, it's centred over Southern Europe and Northern Eastern Australia.



I hope it doesn't move any further south, I don't want to get my brain fried.


Actually, I've never mentioned HAARP. Maybe you'd like to tell me about it.
128 Grothar: It's snowing where we are.

Probably just dandruff.

146 Neapolitan: "...LATEST FIRST CALENDAR DAY ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:
Rank
[and]Date ... 1. JAN 25 2013 ... 2. JAN 17 1899..."
51 1900hurricane: At first glance, I was surprised to see 1899 on that list, especially with the most powerful McFarland Event in US history occurring just over two weeks later.

Okay, that response just throws me. What objective measure could one apply to give it such a label?
It ain't as if they measured (or we can otherwise find evidence to trace) Rossby waves back then. And they sure as heck weren't sending probes up into the jet stream or stratosphere back then (nor can we find surrogates that can be converted to show the past behaviour of the jet stream or stratosphere).
And no, I ain't tryin' to be argumentative here. I really don't know.
222. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:


So yes, Dumbass Trump


Do you have a link for that?
Miami NWS Disco

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE
WINDS SLOWLY SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION. SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP AGAIN
INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50 TO 60S OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST COAST AREAS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

For West Palm Beach...

Quoting 1900hurricane:
I believe bombgenesis has begun.



Think we'll get something in the Hill Country?
I too believe intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe, but I doubt our capacity to ever actually contact said life. Some might also consider the existence of sentient life elsewhere in the universe as somehow diminishing our significance. And while that may be true depending on who you ask, I would say it's not. And even if it is, I think that's because of the inherent egocentric philosophy we've adopted as a species. The universe doesn't revolve around us.
Quoting aspectre:
128 Grothar: It's snowing where we are.

Probably just your dandruff.

146 Neapolitan: "...LATEST FIRST CALENDAR DAY ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:
Rank
[and]Date 1. JAN 25 2013 2. JAN 17 1899..."
51 1900hurricane: At first glance, I was surprised to see 1899 on that list, especially with the most powerful McFarland Event in US history occurring just over two weeks later.

Okay, that response just throws me. What objective measure could one apply to give it such a label?
It ain't as if they measured (or we can otherwise find evidence of) Rosby waves back then. And they sure as heck weren't sending probes up into the jet stream or stratosphere back then (nor, as far as I know, can we find surrogates that can be converted to past behaviour of the jet stream or stratosphere).
And no, I ain't tryin' to be argumentative here. I really don't know.

You are right in that there weren't upper air observations back then, but at least one upper air reanalysis has been done on the event, which still is the cause of all-time cold records in several states. Paul Kocin (formerly of The Weather Channel) in particular has done a great deal of work into studying the extreme event. He was actually here at Texas A&M a few years back for a winter weather seminar and went into the event a little bit, including showing reanalyzed 500 mb charts. Alas, I don't have the charts nor can I find them online, so unfortunately you're going to have to take my word for it. I know, not exactly the most scientific thing in the world... :P

The point of my original post though was that shortly after Chicago's (now second) longest >1" snow streak, it got exceptionally cold and snowed a lot.
Quoting redwagon:


Think we'll get something in the Hill Country?

Rain? It's in the realm of possibility, although I don't expect much from this incoming system. The shortwave near California looks pretty good right now, but it's really going to shear itself out a great deal before it gets here. Not a good recipe for anything noteworthy. Hopefully the next trough brings something more worthwhile.
The threat for severe weather and tornadoes continues to look quite high come next Tuesday as a large and powerful negatively positively-tilted trough exits into the central Plains. In fact...the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008 comes up as a model-based analogue.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

You are right in that there weren't upper air observations back then, but at least one upper air reanalysis has been done on the event, which still is the cause of all-time cold records in several states. Paul Kocin (formerly of The Weather Channel) in particular has done a great deal of work into studying the extreme event. He was actually here at Texas A&M a few years back for a winter weather seminar and went into the event a little bit, including showing reanalyzed 500 mb charts. Alas, I don't have the charts nor can I find them online, so unfortunately you're going to have to take my word for it. I know, not exactly the most scientific thing in the world... :P

The point of my original post though was that shortly after Chicago's (now second) longest >1" snow streak, it got exceptionally cold and snowed a lot.


How do you re-analyse upper air of an event years after that said even when at the time there was no way of knowing the make-up of the upper air. Seems like guestimating to me.
Quoting AussieStorm:


How do you re-analyse upper air of an event years after that said even when at the time there was no way of knowing the make-up of the upper air. Seems like guestimating to me.

Pretty much. When all you have is surface obs, it takes lots of looking at analogues and extrapolation. Paul Kocin explained this a little bit as well. Not perfect by any means, but it's all we have.
In fact, since y'all have to just believe me on most of this, the least I could do is prove that he actually came to Texas A&M. That's him in the orange.



Apologies for the crappy picture quality; the picture was taken several phones ago. Had to dig through some really old stuff to find it. :P
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Pretty much. When all you have is surface obs, it takes lots of looking at analogues and extrapolation. Paul Kocin explained this a little bit as well. Not perfect by any means, but it's all we have.

But even analogues from back then have only surface obs to look at. And no two systems are exactly alike so it's all guestimations.
A look at some of the photos drifting around the internet from Minnesota and Lake Superior over the past few days.









Quoting VaporLA:


Not sure what your trying to show but I had to scroll down about to times to see then next comment. You need to fix up your post or delete it. It's put a massive hole in the blog.. Infact upon review, you've put the same image 37 times, which is just being an utter gutter troll. Goodbye.
AREA WEATHER REPORT...
__________________________

Weather report for my area this week from Tuesday... not even close to freezing point...

Quoting AussieStorm:


Not sure what your trying to show but I had to scroll down about to times to see then next comment. You need to fix up your post or delete it. It's put a massive hole in the blog.
I think he's doing that on purpose because he got banned couple of times.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Not sure what your trying to show but I had to scroll down about to times to see then next comment. You need to fix up your post or delete it. It's put a massive hole in the blog.

He's just a troll mad that he's constantly being banned...flag and minus the comment. It'll be gone soon enough.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
457 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013

...COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH...

.VERY COLD AIR IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS COLD AIR WILL ACCELERATE AS IT FLOWS
THROUGH GAPS IN THE MOUNTAIN RANGES ACROSS THE AREA. DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHILE
STRONG WINDS WILL PICK UP LOOSE SNOW AND GENERATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

AKZ131-261500-
/X.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0002.130126T0200Z-130127T1800Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
457 PM AKST FRI JAN 25 2013


...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST SUNDAY THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS...

* LOCATION...THOMPSON PASS.

* SNOW...WHILE FALLING SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING...UP TO 18
INCHES OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW IS STILL AVAILABLE.


* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS. DRIVING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT.


what is 18" of transportable snow supposed to mean?
241. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The threat for severe weather and tornadoes continues to look quite high come next Tuesday as a large and powerful negatively-tilted trough exits into the central Plains. In fact...the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008 comes up as a model-based analogue.

img
src="http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3 /maps/2013/01/25/18/GFS_3_2013012518_F96_WSPD_500_ MB.png" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px; ">


That's a negative tilt trough?
Atlantic Bomb
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's just a troll mad that he's constantly being banned...flag and minus the comment. It'll be gone soon enough.

That sort of stupidity deserves to be banned. I also WU-mailed Admin to perma-ban them.
Quoting beell:


That's a negative tilt trough?


Looks positively tilted to me.
Quoting beell:


That's a negative tilt trough?

No. I corrected my post.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
AREA WEATHER REPORT...
__________________________

Weather report for my area this week from Tuesday... not even close to freezing point...



"Record Cold Temperatures"?????

None of those temps and in the - so how can they be record cold temperatures?
Quoting MississippiWx:


Looks positively tilted to me.

By the way, you...

Weather Underground has a chat. Try using it again sometimes.
Quoting AussieStorm:


"Record Cold Temperatures"?????

None of those temps and in the - so how can they be record cold temperatures?


yes... they are..
We don't get those extreme temperatures here...even though I live up north.
By this time we should be in the 20s as minimum... isn't anything much below what's average considered a record?
Quoting Civicane49:

Dang, it sure looks dry south of 20*N in the Pacific.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Dang, it sure looks dry south of 20*N in the Pacific.


Yeah. It's a really large area of very dry air south of 20N.
I shouldn't have wasted time not doing TCRs on my brother's computer after my motherboard went out the day after Christmas. He doesn't mind sharing, so I've started taking them up again. Doing Joyce instead of Isaac since I can't do the latter until after I get my computer back. With such a large setback, I'm seriously calling into question the likelihood of me finishing my TCRs by May, especially not with the "best track" still to be added for each storm.

I'll die trying though.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The threat for severe weather and tornadoes continues to look quite high come next Tuesday as a large and powerful negatively positively-tilted trough exits into the central Plains. In fact...the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008 comes up as a model-based analogue.

Looking upstream it's hard to see that much energy reaching the surface at this point.

I'll have my eyes peeled.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I shouldn't have wasted time not doing TCRs on my brother's computer after my motherboard went out the day after Christmas. He doesn't mind sharing, so I've started taking them up again. Doing Joyce instead of Isaac since I can't do the latter until after I get my computer back. With such a large setback, I'm seriously calling into question the likelihood of me finishing my TCRs by May, especially not with the "best track" still to be added for each storm.

I'll die trying though.

I've been working on mine. Plan to get them all released by the end of February. I was going to do the best track...but decided against it given the added time.


Matijevic Hill Panorama
Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Cornell/Arizona State U.

Explanation: On January 25 (UT) 2004, the Opportunity rover fell to Mars, making today the 9th anniversary of its landing. After more than 3,200 sols (Mars solar days) the golf cart-sized robot from Earth is still actively exploring the Red Planet, though its original mission plan was for three months. Having driven some 35 kilometers (22 miles) from its landing site, Opportunity's panoramic camera recorded the segments of this scene, in November and December of last year. The digitally stitched panorama spans more than 210 degrees across the Matijevic Hill area along the western rim of Endeavour Crater. Features dubbed Copper Cliff, a dark outcrop, appear at the left, and Whitewater Lake, a bright outcrop, at the far right. The image is presented here in a natural color approximation of what the scene would look like to human eyes.
256. beell
Looks like it's a neutral tilt to me in that frame. And I should try harder not to be so negatively tilted here.
:-)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Redwoods haven't grown in southern California for thousands of years. Climate is too warm and dry here, and it's been that way since long before man started making contrails.
Ok, now this is getting funny.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A look at some of the photos drifting around the internet from Minnesota and Lake Superior over the past few days.









Very cool pics .
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've been working on mine. Plan to get them all released by the end of February. I was going to do the best track...but decided against it given the added time.


Wuss.
Im working on a Hurricane Sandy Video...all about the history and track of the storm.

It will be about 8-9 mins long. I'll have done by Spring after names of last season are retired.

Very likely to get Sandy out so it'll be a time of reminiscence for me..
Quoting KoritheMan:
I too believe intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe, but I doubt our capacity to ever actually contact said life. Some might also consider the existence of sentient life elsewhere in the universe as somehow diminishing our significance. And while that may be true depending on who you ask, I would say it's not. And even if it is, I think that's because of the inherent egocentric philosophy we've adopted as a species. The universe doesn't revolve around us.
Great post. But most scientist would not believe that the Universe revolves around us. One day the word or title universe probably wont exist.
262. beell
Quoting AussieStorm:


How do you re-analyse upper air of an event years after that said even when at the time there was no way of knowing the make-up of the upper air. Seems like guestimating to me.


Just as certain mid and upper air patterns are related to resulting surface temps, winds, pressure, fronts, and warm/cold air advection-one probably could make a decent attempt at reconstructing the pattern(s) that produced the surface features. Not totally a guess.
Quoting beell:
Looks like it's a neutral tilt to me in that frame. And I should try harder not to be so negatively tilted here.
:-)


You keep people on their toes. Challenging people is a good thing.
Surface Winds North Atlantic
265. wxmod
266. wxmod
Quoting hydrus:
One day the word or title universe probably wont exist.


interesting idea
Taking Off For the Night - Stay Safe All- Sleep Well - Stay Warm.....
Quoting Chicklit:
Surface Winds North Atlantic
Whats up Chicklit.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
what is 18" of transportable snow supposed to mean?


I think they mean the depth of snow that can be blown about ..
Quoting PedleyCA:
Taking Off For the Night - Stay Safe All- Sleep Well - Stay Warm.....
Good night Ped.

okay, well glad the superstorm is not threatening land. great blog by Dr. Masters!
goodnight all.
272. beell
Aw, thanks, Kori.
(i also know when not to "challenge" if I'm beyond my knowledge base, lol!)
Quoting hydrus:
Whats up Chicklit.

hey hydrus...been working my tailfeathers off.
looking forward to summer.
glad you guys are keeping the blog lively during off-season. came on here looking for moon pictures. evidently, tomorrow is the full; today it's like 99% there.
Quoting beell:
Aw, thanks, Kori.
(i also know when not to "challenge" if I'm beyond my knowledge base, lol!)


I try very hard to keep my mouth shut when I'm out of my league. To be soundly defeated (humiliatied is probably more apropos here...) on sonething you lack knowledge of is one of the worst feelings in the world. Ignorance is a terrible thing.
Quoting wxmod:


interesting idea
When we see things out there, some have vanished, some still may be there, but not as they were. If we lived for ever, we could record everything. For instance, the Milky way Galaxy rotates every 225 million years. Astronomers seem to nail down how far off ancient galaxies are. My question is, with lensing, dark energy and dark matter involved, is the math and physics applied to all this at all accurate? Or if it is wrong, does it cut us off at the base of whats really happening out there.
276. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


I try very hard to keep my mouth shut when I'm out of my league. To be soundly defeated (humiliatied is probably more apropos here...) on sonething you lack knowledge of is one of the worst feelings in the world. Ignorance is a terrible thing.


You're not alone by any means! And...some of those painful lessons end up being great motivators if you survive.
Quoting TomTaylor:
As the Arctic has warmed faster than any other region in the planet, it has favored more blocking in this region, and presumably more stratospheric warming events (they've been occurring with increased frequency in the last decade).


I saw the data on the recent increase of blocking events. But I didn't see anything convincing that showed an increase in SSW events (they might have slightly increased in the last ten years, but are sitting at a 60 year average). Do you have a chart or the raw data that shows this? Just curious...thanks
Quoting Chicklit:

hey hydrus...been working my tailfeathers off.
looking forward to summer.
glad you guys are keeping the blog lively during off-season. came on here looking for moon pictures. evidently, tomorrow is the full; today it's like 99% there.
Neat stuff. I was checking out how many solar eclipses we will have for the next ten years. Some neat things coming. Including comets.
Grrrrr, it's so frustrating to me when Sky News and Weatherzone use the words "mini-Tornado".

There is no such thing as a "mini" Tornado.

I tweeted Weatherzone about the use of the word "mini" tornado, yet Sky news Australia is still using that word.
Quoting hydrus:
Neat stuff. I was checking out how many solar eclipses we will have for the next ten years. Some neat things coming. Including comets.


A very nice comet in November should be really spectacular.Comet ISON, which on Nov. 28. I still remember seeing Halley's Comet back in 1986. Got the commemorative coin from the local newspaper.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I too believe intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe, but I doubt our capacity to ever actually contact said life. Some might also consider the existence of sentient life elsewhere in the universe as somehow diminishing our significance. And while that may be true depending on who you ask, I would say it's not. And even if it is, I think that's because of the inherent egocentric philosophy we've adopted as a species. The universe doesn't revolve around us.




I prefer not use the word alien when referring to intelligent life other than us. I prefer intelligent beings. Mainly because of the history of the use of the word alien makes it feel silly agreeing that aliens exist.

I'd say it's quite a logical conclusion to say other intelligent beings exist in the Universe when you consider how vast it is. Now that can mean a lot of things. Are they anything like us, much different, vastly superior, or comparable? What if they have physical properties unlike what we are used to? What if they have interdimensional capability?

Yes I know, weird things to discuss. But anyone with a human brain can acknowledge that we are not the highest beings in existence.
Australian Conditions right now....

Hottest: Cloncurry Ap, Qld 108.5°F
Coldest: Mt Wellington, Tas 45.7°F
Windiest: Cape Moreton, Qld ENE 61km/h(37.9mph)
Wettest: Williamtown, NSW/ACT 6.0mm last hr.

With that, I'm off to Celebrate Australia Day by going to the beach, having a BBQ then watching the Fireworks. Catch ya's later tonight.
Quoting beell:


You're not alone by any means! And...some of those painful lessons end up being great motivators if you survive.


That's why I'm so annoying (challenging :P) here. I don't allow anyone to walk away from an argument without getting a feel of the reasons for their particular claims. If they're wrong I have to correct them. I'd expect everyone to do the same to me. Even if those lessons are painful (as you accurately claim), they're ones worth learning.



Brazilian artist Nele Azevedo's ice people: 1,000 small sitting figures made from ice. The Berlin installation, intended to draw attention to climate change in the Arctic, lasted until his last figure melted in the heat of the day.

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/ 2013/01/melting-masterpieces-impressive-works-of-a rt-made-from-snow-and-ice/272538/

Quoting Jedkins01:




I prefer not use the word alien when referring to intelligent life other than us. I prefer intelligent beings. Mainly because of the history of the use of the word alien makes it feel silly agreeing that aliens exist.
Ah, yes. Words bind, don't they? :)
Quoting KoritheMan:

Ah, yes. Words bind, don't they? :)



Indeed, language is weird that way.
Not that I'm not thankful for this or anything, but, ever notice how the strongest storms, like this uber powerful extratropical low (at least, that's what it's forecast to become) out in the north Atlantic, almost never hit land at or near their peak intensities? It doesn't matter if they're hurricanes or mid-latitude weather systems, it almost never happens. A tad interesting, for sure.
289. wxmod
Quoting hydrus:
When we see things out there, some have vanished, some still may be there, but not as they were. If we lived for ever, we could record everything. For instance, the Milky way Galaxy rotates every 225 million years. Astronomers seem to nail down how far off ancient galaxies are. My question is, with lensing, dark energy and dark matter involved, is the math and physics applied to all this at all accurate? Or if it is wrong, does it cut us off at the base of whats really happening out there.


I would guess that it's going to be a while before there's a discovery that answers that, though some people will argue adamantly that we know what we're looking at. No doubt we are totally unaware of almost everything. That seems to be how it's always been. No point in thinking 2013 is a particularly enlightened time.
That said, it amazes me personally, me with my unreliable human brain, what has been discovered and converted into tools.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
10:00 AM RET January 26 2013
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (999 hPa) located at 13.1S 65.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the northeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.1S 64.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.2S 62.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.3S 59.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.5S 55.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
Taking benefit of a weakening southerly vertical wind shear, convective activity has consolidated within the past 12 hours. It shows now on meteosat7 visible channel imagery a curved band pattern at about 0.4 to 0.5. Last SSMIS swaths (F17 at 0059z, f16 at 0113z ET F18 at 0402z) confirm that convective pattern is progressively improving.

Dvorak maximum winds estimation (30 knots) is confirmed thanks to 14043 buoy at 0300z that reported 29 knot winds and a pressure deepening despite system center is shifting away westwards. 0522z ASCAT swath reveals a very asymmetric winds structure. Strongest winds extend far from the center in the eastern sector when gale force winds extension remains small in the western semi-circle. System is expected to track globally westwards within the next 72 lead time hours. On and after Sunday wind shear should clearly strengthen over this forecast track and a significant deepening seems therefore not likely, a weakening is even expected Sunday and Monday.

Thursday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to clearly improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases and as upper level equatorward divergence keeps on being very favorable. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides.

System is therefore expected to regularly strengthening and pass under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east and is expected to re-curve southwestwards from Wednesday.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #27
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
18:00 PM FST January 26 2013
======================================

Southern Cooks Island Alerts
-----------------------------
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, TAKUTEA, ATIU,MAUKE,MITIARO, MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (985 hPa) located near 18.5S 159.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position fair based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has decreased in past 24 hours. Deep convection started to flare up in the southern semi-circle past 6 hours. System lies just east of an upper short wave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center being less than half a degree from dense overcast, yielding DT=2.5 MET=3.0 and PT=2.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W2.0/24 HRS

Global models move the system southeastwards with further weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 20.8S 158.7W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.9S 157.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Based on the recent GFS run, the cold front that is currently northwest of Hawaii is forecast to be over my area on the island of Oahu by Sunday evening through Monday. Flash flood watch has been issued for the northwestern Hawaiian Islands including Oahu. The approaching front should bring some locally heavy rain and the chance for thunderstorms.
Garry is continuing to weaken over the South Pacific as it moves south-southeastward. Strong northwesterly shear and dry air are weakening the cyclone. Expect additional weakening of the cyclone in the next few days before dissipating.

Good Morning Folks!..full moon out huh...well the Blogs Coffee is perked for when you all get here...have a great day everyone!
7-day for Tampa Bay...........................
GFS at 48 hrs..take a look at west coast..whew....
Folks around Chicago take heed and I hope not too many power outages on tomorrows cold morning up there.....................421 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013 /521 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2013/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

* MAIN IMPACT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES
WILL WEIGH THEM DOWN AND WITH INCREASING WIND COULD RESULT IN
POWER OUTAGES. IN ADDITION...PAVEMENT AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING...SO ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FREEZE
ON CONTACT AND RESULT IN VERY ICY AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. SIDEWAYS AND WALKWAYS COULD
ALSO TURN TO SHEETS OF ICE MAKING EVEN WALKING DIFFICULT AND
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THIS STORM IS STILL IN
THE DEVELOPING STAGES AND ANY MINOR CHANGES IN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECASTED
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT ICING THREAT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER
STORM.

&&
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

...ICY ROADS AND AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...

.THE RECENT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ON AREA ROADWAYS IS COMBINING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS TO
PRODUCE BLACK ICE. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW A NEW GLAZE OF ICE TO
FORM ON ELEVATED SURFACES AS WELL AS SOME ROADS AND BRIDGES.
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY MAY BE SEVERELY RESTRICTED.
SPC latest outlook for the mid week outbreak.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A BETTER GENERAL CONSENSUS
IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
CONFIGURATIONS AND MAGNITUDES OF THE VARIOUS FLOW FIELDS AND
PARAMETERS...ANALYSIS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/GFS ENSEMBLE AND
DPROG/DT LOOPS LEND SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR THE REINTRODUCTION OF A
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST...NOW VALID FOR D4/TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT INTO AT LEAST PART OF D5/WEDNESDAY.

AS INDICATED IN THE D3 OTLK...A WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S. AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. WHILE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND LESS FULLY-PHASED UPPER
TROUGH WHEN COMPARED WITH GFS/UKMET MODELS...EVEN IT COMES AROUND TO
FORECASTING AN AMPLIFIED AND SUBSTANTIALLY PHASED LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SCNTRL AND ERN U.S. BEGINNING D4/TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH D5/WEDNESDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
RAPID ONSET OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THEN TO THE
TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS IN
EITHER SUPERCELL OR LINEAR FORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX TO SERN MO/WRN TN. SQUALL LINE OR LINE SEGMENT EVOLUTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS FURTHER INTENSIFY AMIDST MODEST INSTABILITY. DAMAGING
WINDS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD...WILL BE THE GREATEST HAZARD WITH THIS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
TORNADOES AS WELL.

EXPECT THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A QLSC WITH DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY/D5. BEYOND THIS TIME...GREATER MODEL SPREAD AND RESULTING
UNCERTAINTY BEGIN TO IMPACT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER.
HAVE OPTED TO RELY ON GFS ENSEMBLE JOINT PROBABILITY FORECASTS FOR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THESE PRODUCTS SUGGEST
THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EWD
EXTENT DESPITE STRONG QPF AND UVV SIGNALS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT
TO THE EAST COAST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE ADDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS IF MODEL CONSENSUS IMPROVES.

..CARBIN.. 01/26/2013

302. vanwx
Quoting aspectre:
128 Grothar: It's snowing where we are.

Probably just dandruff.

146 Neapolitan: "...LATEST FIRST CALENDAR DAY ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL IN CHICAGO:
Rank
[and]Date ... 1. JAN 25 2013 ... 2. JAN 17 1899..."
51 1900hurricane: At first glance, I was surprised to see 1899 on that list, especially with the most powerful McFarland Event in US history occurring just over two weeks later.

Okay, that response just throws me. What objective measure could one apply to give it such a label?
It ain't as if they measured (or we can otherwise find evidence to trace) Rossby waves back then. And they sure as heck weren't sending probes up into the jet stream or stratosphere back then (nor can we find surrogates that can be converted to show the past behaviour of the jet stream or stratosphere).
And no, I ain't tryin' to be argumentative here. I really don't know.


Would this help?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm
Good morning. Looks like we could be in for a multi-day severe weather event this week in the South/Southeast. Tuesday definitely has the most potential, I would not be surprised at all to see that day get a moderate risk. The threat on Wednesday would likely be mainly in the morning with leftover activity from Tuesday/Tuesday night. SPC notes the potential for a possibly significant damaging wind event Tuesday, with a threat for tornadoes as well.
Morning gang!

Evening Aussie!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning gang!

Evening Aussie!

Mornin'
Good Morning All..
Made it back from SC yesterday afternoon..
Missed the icing event there..



Glad i did..
Beautiful sunset here in pcola last eve..
Too lazy to get my camera out..LoL..
All is well.. :)



Current Jet Stream..




Most Current GFS as of 1800UTC last night..

NAM
How low did the low go?

It's analyzed as 937mb right now. Was it lower at any time? Or is it still strengthening?

Didn't watch.
Got this in my daily Eco-Digest. Saving a Humpback whale in the Sea of Cortez;

There could be a cyclone threatening Madagascar in a few days. Models have been a little inconsistent on intensity but the 6z GFS got pretty aggressive with it:







It just barely keeps it offshore, as do the rest of the major models.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I try very hard to keep my mouth shut when I'm out of my league. To be soundly defeated (humiliatied is probably more apropos here...) on sonething you lack knowledge of is one of the worst feelings in the world. Ignorance is a terrible thing.
Kori, You should hear me at my 10 year old grandson's basketball games.... Don't know what I'm talkin' bout , but everybody in the gym knows it... Another game in 2 hours. I will try to keep the mouthhole quiet today....NOT
Clearwater Beach named Best Beach town!!..................CLEARWATER --
USA TODAY Travel readers crowned Clearwater Beach the best beach town in Florida.

Readers voted online on 10 nominations submitted by "Dr. Beach" — aka Florida International University professor and coastal expert Stephen P. Leatherman.

Nearly 30,000 votes were received, and Clearwater was a clear winner with more than 25% of the tally, followed by Siesta Key, Cocoa Beach and Sanibel Island.
Looking at UKMet office radar animation, it looks like parts of western England have already have sustained winds of 39kts and gusts to 56kts (I think,) unless they're using kilometers, in which case this is no big deal...
Not long back from The Entrance, Central Coast, New South Wales. Beach swimming was beautiful, water was nice and refreshing, the fish'n'chips was delicious and the fireworks were awesome. What a way to end Australia Day. No doubt about it, we live in the best country in the world. I hope everyone else had an awesome Australia Day.









I'm uploading the video of the fireworks to youtube right now, once it's ready I'll post a link here.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Looks like we could be in for a multi-day severe weather event this week in the South/Southeast. Tuesday definitely has the most potential, I would not be surprised at all to see that day get a moderate risk. The threat on Wednesday would likely be mainly in the morning with leftover activity from Tuesday/Tuesday night. SPC notes the potential for a possibly significant damaging wind event Tuesday, with a threat for tornadoes as well.


I'm hoping for a SE trend of the trough, to bring some of it to GA.
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE ADDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS IF MODEL CONSENSUS IMPROVES.

Looks like mainly your severe weather "Opening Day" squall line.
Maybe we get something like April 4th 2011 squall line. I couldnt go anywhere after that with pinetrees down everywhere. My house didnt see any winds over 40mph though.
Looking for some 1km sat close-ups of intense tropical low in north atl if you have any links please share.

Current model data suggests that we could see a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging wind the primary threat

Long range guidance shows another round of wet weather around February 6th but we stay relatively mild into February with the pattern returning to a trough in the West and ridge in the East.
Talk about when the s*** hit's the fan. Holy molely.

Quoting LargoFl:
Clearwater Beach named Best Beach town!!..................CLEARWATER --
USA TODAY Travel readers crowned Clearwater Beach the best beach town in Florida.

Readers voted online on 10 nominations submitted by "Dr. Beach" %u2014 aka Florida International University professor and coastal expert Stephen P. Leatherman.

Nearly 30,000 votes were received, and Clearwater was a clear winner with more than 25% of the tally, followed by Siesta Key, Cocoa Beach and Sanibel Island.


Better than Siesta Key...???

It must've been fixed somehow.

(Added:)

Oh wait. The people of Siesta Key would be much less inclined to vote in that sort of thing at all, while the St. Pete folks would be inclined to round up everyone they could.
This is the first JTWC warning track on the Madagascar system I mentioned. It shows a minimal Cat. 1 equivalent approaching the island in 5 days:

1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Michigan
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales

Significant Weather Media Release
Issued at 2:30 pm EDT on Saturday 26 January 2013.

Heavy rain, gale force winds and dangerous surf over the long weekend



The Bureau of Meteorology is warning that ex-tropical cyclone "Oswald" will bring heavy rain, gale force winds and damaging surf conditions to the northern half of the New South Wales coast over the long weekend, and that these conditions may extend to southwards to impact Newcastle, Sydney and Wollongong on Monday and Tuesday.

The Bureau's New South Wales Regional Director, Barry Hanstrum, said that the low-pressure system currently affecting Queensland will continue to track south, bringing heavy rain and the potential for major flooding to New South Wales river valleys from the Queensland border to the Hunter Valley, and possibly further southward.

"Heavy rainfall has already commenced over far north-east NSW and this will extend further south to the mid-north coast and adjacent ranges on Sunday, and possibly reach the Sydney Metropolitan area on Monday. Communities currently at immediate risk include Ballina, Byron Bay, Grafton, Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie," Mr Hanstrum said."

"Widespread heavy rainfall of around 200mm is expected from the Queensland border to Port Macquarie. Localised falls in excess of 300mm, may lead to flash flooding in those areas."

"On Sunday the rainfall is expected to extend west of the Dividing Range, affecting Moree, Inverell and southwards to to impact eastern parts of the Hunter Valley including Newcastle."

"Gale force winds combined with an increasing easterly swell will also produce high seas and damaging surf conditions, with coastal erosion possible in vulnerable areas from Sunday.

"While it is still too early to forecast the exaxt path of the low pressure system, our guidance now suggests there is the potential for heavy rain and damaging winds to affect Newcastle, the Central Coast, Sydney and Wollongong on Monday" Mr Hanstrum said.

The rain and wind will ease from most areas on Tuesday as the low moves offshore and tracks eastward, but dangerous surf will continue into Wednesday," Mr Hanstrum said.

Residents and holiday-makers should stay tuned for the latest warnings through the Bureau's website and through media channels.

NSW SES Commissioner Murray Kear is urging holiday-makers to consider the severe weather when making their travel plans.

"Only necessary travel on roads should be done over the long weekend period in these areas as there is the potential for major roads and highways to be cut off by floodwater. If you do come across a flooded road, don't drive through it. Motorists should stay up to date with the latest road information from
livetraffic.com.

"People holidaying in the affected areas should also keep up to date with the latest weather information. Campers, in particular, should move to higher ground during the severe weather as there is the potential for low-lying areas to be inundated," Mr Kear said.

"If you need emergency help in a flood or storm call the NSW SES on 132 500. If your situation is life-threatening call 000," he added.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20122013
16:00 PM RET January 26 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (999 hPa) located at 13.4S 65.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 130 NM in the northeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 64.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.0S 62.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.2S 57.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.1S 54.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
==========================
Taking benefit of a weakening southerly vertical wind shear, convective activity has consolidated last night. It keeps on organizing as a curved band at about 0.4 to 0.5. 0522z ASCAT and 0723z OSCAT swaths reveals a very asymmetric winds structure.

Strongest winds extend far from the center in the northeastern quadrant when extension remains small in the western semi-circle. System is expected to track globally westwards within the next 72-84 hours lead time. As expected south southeasterly wind shear is recently strengthening back and low level vortex has temporarily been partially exposed south of the main convective activity (refer to meteosat7 1100z and 1200z imagery). Southeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to keeps on being unfavorable until monday late over this forecast track and a significant deepening seems therefore not likely, a weakening should even occur within Sunday and Monday.

Thursday and Wednesday, environmental conditions are expected to clearly improve aloft as vertical wind shear decreases and as upper level equatorward divergence keeps on being very favorable. Low level convergence remains very good within the same period, on the both sides.

System is therefore expected to regularly strengthening and pass under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east and is expected to re-curve south westwards along the eastern Malagasy coastline from Wednesday.


THE MODELS DO INDICATE A RATHER POTENT SYSTEM WITH STRONG
LIFT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THEY ALSO SHOW RATHER STRONG WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AS WELL AS ALOFT SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
400-600 M2/S2.
COMBINING WITH THE HIGH SHEAR LOOKS TO BE SOLID
MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPTS 65-67 DEGREES AND 850MB THETA E VALUES OF
330-334K. SUCH RICH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT GREATER INSTABILITY EVEN
WITH AN OVERNIGHT TIMING...LOOK FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF ML/MU CAPE.

For Memphis:

.DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS)
POSSIBILITY DEVELOPS. MODEL INSTABILITY IS JUST ADEQUATE BUT
ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD.
GOOD VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD WILL EXIST WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...SO BASED ON
THE LATEST MODELS CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN THE QLCS OR AHEAD OF THE QLCS IN SUPERCELLS.??

-----------------------------------
i'm not thinking supercells but we've got 5 days to figure it out.
SPEED SHEAR LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT MORE THAN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH WOULD
INDICATE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY OF A SQUALL LINE/QLCS TYPE SEVERE
MODE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD DEFINITELY INCREASE THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IF
THIS VERIFIED.
..BUT ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
__________________________________________

I love the ECMWF...hope it verifies.
After this system 60s and 70s for highs is over, its back to highs in the 40s.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #28
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY ONE (09F)
0:00 AM FST January 27 2013
======================================

Southern Cooks Island Alerts
-----------------------------
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI, MANUAE, TAKUTEA, ATIU,MAUKE,MITIARO, MANGAIA AND RAROTONGA.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (995 hPa) located near 20.0S 158.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 17 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
95 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle
70 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization has not changed much in the past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent past 24 hours. System lies east of an upper short wave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center with MG surround, yielding DT=4.0 MET=3.5 and PT=3.0. Final Dvorak number based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it south southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.1S 157.7W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 24.1S 156.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 28.7S 150.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
For GA:

GFS
DISPLAYING MORE IN THE WAY OF PRE FRONTAL ACTIVITY AND ECMWF MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING MESO LOWS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT
DIFFERENCES FEW BEYOND THAT WITH TIMING OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY INCREASES
LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO
MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. 50 TO 60 KT JET AT 850MB
AND DEPENDING ON IF MESO LOW FORMS...COULD SEE INCREASED HELICITY
VALUES AS WELL
. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING THROUGH NEST WEEK
WITH ONLY ACTION NOW TO BE BEEFING UP THE WORDING IN THE HWO.
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NSW COASTAL VALLEYS FROM THE QUEENSLAND BORDER TO LOWER HUNTER INCLUDING THE UPPER MACINTYRE VALLEY FROM LATE SATURDAY ONWARDS
Issued at 12:20 pm EDT on Saturday 26 January 2013
Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning [see note below].

Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald is expected to move south over the weekend into NSW and bring widespread heavy rain to the NSW north and mid north coasts and parts of the northern tablelands.

At this stage there is a greater than 75% chance that flooding as well as local flash flooding will develop along the coastal river valleys from the Queensland Border to Taree, as well as the upper Macintyre Valley in the Northern Tablelands. Flooding is expected to develop from late Saturday and into Sunday and Monday as the weather system moves southwards over the weekend.

1. Upper Macintyre - moderate to major flooding

2. Tweed Valley - moderate to major flooding

3. Brunswick Valley - moderate to major flooding

4. Richmond and Wilsons Valleys - moderate to major flooding

5. Clarence Valley (including Orara) - moderate to major flooding

6. Coffs Harbour - moderate to major flooding

7. Bellinger, Nambucca and Kalang Valleys - moderate to major flooding

8. Macleay Valley - moderate to major flooding

9. Hastings and Camden Haven (Logans Crossing) - moderate to major flooding

10. Manning Valley - moderate to major flooding

11. Patterson and Williams - moderate flooding

A Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy rain for people in the Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast, Northern Tablelands and North West Slopes & Plains forecast districts.

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Better than Siesta Key...???

It must've been fixed somehow.

(Added:)

Oh wait. The people of Siesta Key would be much less inclined to vote in that sort of thing at all, while the St. Pete folks would be inclined to round up everyone they could.
..well from my own standpoint, ive been to siesta key beach and its nice but clearwater beach is bigger and i think better over all,especially for families, more to do there..siesta key is more for the retired older folks,which is great too..just my own view about it..actually im surprised daytona beach didnt come up in the top 3
This is how my Australia Day Ended.

335. VR46L
Quoting hurricane23:
Looking for some 1km sat close-ups of intense tropical low in north atl if you have any links please share.


Am its not a tropical low ... just an extropical winter storm ..:)





Dont know if this is what you are looking for but its one of the best links I have seen for the North Atlantic

Link

RTS ... At the moment I am hitting 32 knots ..If its UK met sources it is in Miles or knots

If its an Irish source they use any of 3 measures and if its continental Europe it will be in KMS..

324:

Am I reading that right?

They just got like 2 feet of rain a few days ago, and now the forecast is another 8 to 12 inches?!
The Free University of Berlin has named the huge Atlantic low "Jolle." You can see a nice AVHRR image of the east side of the storm at Bern University.

Jeff Masters
340. etxwx
Good morning all. And a belated Happy Australia Day to everyone down under. It's another warm and foggy morning here in East Texas. I'm trying to resist starting the garden early - it's difficult because the high is forecast to be in the upper ranges of 70F today.

We have a flock of about 20 Turkey Vultures who winter here in the neighborhood, so today we have buzzards in the fog:



On sunnier mornings they like to do this:



Sometimes the backyard looks like a scene from an Edward Gorey drawing. :) Have a good (and buzzard free) day everyone!
Morning Doc!












Another good link.
Quoting pcola57:
1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Michigan


Thanks!! Yep i'am aware of those 1km from dupage. I'am particularly looking for close-ups of the intense ET low swirling in North Atlantic.
Ah! Thanks for posting those. Spectacular ET low indeed.. should continue deepen even further.
350. VR46L
This site includes visual Sat and radars of Iceland ..

Icelandic Met office

Thanks again!
06Z GFS (initialized midnight here) analyzed our friend in the North Atlantic to be sub 940 mb. I imagine it's strengthened even more since then.



You can also see it starting to go warm core on the overlaid 1000-500 mb thickness chart with the closed 534 dm thickness contour completely enclosing the center of circulation. Expect the warm core to strengthen as bombgenesis ends and the warm seclusion process continues.
Dang, those ASCAT images Aussie posted sure show a lot of 50+ knot winds. Sure would be a bad place to be on the surface, especially given the fetch.


Looks to be about as low as it will get.
Quoting nymore:


Looks to be about as low as it will get.

I could see it getting maybe a little stronger over the next 12 hours, but not by much. Bombgenesis is just about complete now. No Extratropical pressure records are going to fall today.
Queensland wild weather gallery, January 2013

Just one of the photo's from this gallery.


Goodnight all.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I could see it getting maybe a little stronger over the next 12 hours, but not by much. Bombgenesis is just about complete now. No Extratropical pressure records are going to fall today.


Not even close to living up to the hype by some on here but then things rarely do.
Our friend in the North Atlantic sure is a looker!

Quoting AussieStorm:
Queensland wild weather gallery, January 2013

Just one of the photo's from this gallery.


Goodnight all.


The coastal region of QLD around Brisbane and areas somewhat to the north and south of there has a remarkably similar climate, especially in the summer, to much of Florida. It is quite humid, afternoon thunderstorms are very common and localized tornado events are also sometimes experienced.

Perhaps the only significant difference is that the southern half of QLD is not nearly as susceptible to tropical cyclones, due to the arrangement of the land masses there, vis-a-vis the ocean and typical tropical cyclone tracks. North QLD does see some TC activity.
Atlantic bomb~ so huge OSCAT can only capture 1/2 of it.
364. VR46L
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Our friend in the North Atlantic sure is a looker!



LOL ...Its no friend of mine .... The front associated with it is bringing at the moment gusts of 37 knots and rain ...

ascat of UK and Ireland



Atlantic bomb
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A BETTER GENERAL CONSENSUS
IN THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
CONFIGURATIONS AND MAGNITUDES OF THE VARIOUS FLOW FIELDS AND
PARAMETERS...ANALYSIS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC/GFS ENSEMBLE AND
DPROG/DT LOOPS LEND SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR THE REINTRODUCTION OF A
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST...NOW VALID FOR D4/TUESDAY...WITH A
CONTINUING THREAT INTO AT LEAST PART OF D5/WEDNESDAY.

AS INDICATED IN THE D3 OTLK...A WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S. AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. WHILE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND LESS FULLY-PHASED UPPER
TROUGH WHEN COMPARED WITH GFS/UKMET MODELS...EVEN IT COMES AROUND TO
FORECASTING AN AMPLIFIED AND SUBSTANTIALLY PHASED LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE SCNTRL AND ERN U.S. BEGINNING D4/TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH D5/WEDNESDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
RAPID ONSET OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THEN TO THE
TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS IN
EITHER SUPERCELL OR LINEAR FORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX TO SERN MO/WRN TN. SQUALL LINE OR LINE SEGMENT EVOLUTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS FURTHER INTENSIFY AMIDST MODEST INSTABILITY. DAMAGING
WINDS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD...WILL BE THE GREATEST HAZARD WITH THIS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
TORNADOES AS WELL.

EXPECT THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A QLSC WITH DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY/D5. BEYOND THIS TIME...GREATER MODEL SPREAD AND RESULTING
UNCERTAINTY BEGIN TO IMPACT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER.
HAVE OPTED TO RELY ON GFS ENSEMBLE JOINT PROBABILITY FORECASTS FOR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THESE PRODUCTS SUGGEST
THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH EWD
EXTENT DESPITE STRONG QPF AND UVV SIGNALS ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT
TO THE EAST COAST. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE ADDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS IF MODEL CONSENSUS IMPROVES.

..CARBIN.. 01/26/2013
Quoting nymore:


Not even close to living up to the hype by some on here but then things rarely do.
It may set no records (though that remains to be seen), but, IMO, a barometric pressure drop of 50-plus millibars in just a day is pretty amazing no matter what the final outcome.
The wind forecast has it peaking around now.
The core has yet to get as deep as expected.
Quoting hurricane23:

Looking for some 1km sat close-ups of intense tropical low in north atl if you have any links please share.

Terra/MODIS, 1 km

Near Real Time (Orbit Swath) Images

Good morning/afternoon/evening all. I hope Australia gets some better weather soon.
Quoting hurricane23:
Looking for some 1km sat close-ups of intense tropical low in north atl if you have any links please share.


best i can get

no link its make your own

A significant ice storm is likely to begin affecting the Midwest tomorrow afternoon as a short wave trough, currently in the desert Southwest, ejects into the northern Plains. Many locations are expecting a quart of an inch to up to three-quarters of an inch. This type of ice accumulation will lead to significant travel disruption. Chicago, a city that broke its never-ending streak of days without a 1" snowfall, is expected up to a half an inch of ice accumulation.

Winter weather products are being issued for the area at this time...primarily for sleet and freezing rain and not snow, though some accumulation is possible the farther north you head.

MODIS
376. txjac
Can anyone tell me when cooler weather will come back to Houston? 80F just aint right in January.
Quoting Skyepony:
The core has yet to get as deep as expected.

I would have to disagree. Being as deep as possible is not the same as being as warm as expected with an extratropical cyclone in most cases. With this current storm, the peak is about now or very soon. However, as it slowly winds down, it should briefly become more warm core as it separates from the baroclinic dynamics that spawned it in the first place. During that time, the thickness contours should become more unidirectional with the storm's isobars, indicating a stacked system. The greater thickness values at the center of the low versus the surrounding environment indicates that it is warm core.



06Z GFS @ initialization. Bombgenesis is winding down and the low is beginning to go warm core (as seen by the thickness contours). However, baroclinic forcing is still driving the bus so to speak with lots of thickness contours crossing isobars (particularly in the SE quadrant), and there is still a clear warm front and cold front attached to the low, which can be more or less seen on the thickness chart.



06Z GFS @ 24 hours. This is the time that the phase diagram you posted indicated the deepest warm core. By this point, the low is beginning to wind down from a max of 12 hours earlier. The low has completely separated from the frontal structures that it had earlier and is very warm core, with the thickness contours following the isobars. The cyclone will continue to slowly wind down from this point and decay.

*EDIT to fix image and clarify paragraph 2.
What a beast!

Loop
Did I scare everybody off?
1900hurricane~ That phase analysis shows it is more shallow now than expected to become. It was pretty shallow yesterday (cloudsat). All I was referring to was that it's not as deep now as it is expected to be. We should also see it become more symmetrical. Wind wise, strength & such, being extratropical the fronts are helping feed it. As it goes more warm core it should weaken some. I agree as far as peak it's somewhere around now. Maybe a touch stronger at 12Z. Said most of that in the gfs wind forecast post.


Looks like that storm has moved off and doesn't look like anything is going to replace it. Thought there was more out there.

58 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 55 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.91 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 3.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 4900 ft
Overcast 6000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

And I see the KSOX radar is down....
Quoting Skyepony:
1900hurricane~ That phase analysis shows it is more shallow now than expected to become. It was pretty shallow yesterday (cloudsat). All I was referring to was that it's not as deep now as it is expected to be. We should also see it become more symmetrical. Wind wise, strength & such, being extratropical the fronts are helping feed it. As it goes more warm core it should weaken some. I agree as far as peak it's somewhere around now. Maybe a touch stronger at 12Z. Said most of that in the gfs wind forecast post.

Ok, I must have misunderstood you. I thought you were talking the depth of the pressure (intensity), not the depth of the warm core itself.
386. ARiot
I think our "winter" of about two weeks is over in the southern part of the TN Valley.

We had a week of cold rain and a few colder than average lows this week.

Back to warmer or much warmer than average next week.

At least the cold snap stopped things from budding out after the 70 degree week in early Jan.
GFS ensembles are indicating Missouri and Illinois will see temperatures nearly 20 degrees above normal by Tuesday.

Quoting txjac:
Can anyone tell me when cooler weather will come back to Houston? 80F just aint right in January.


Wednesday night/Thursday should return temps to just below seasonal norms for this time of year.

What is not know as of yet is whether the heart of the polar air mass will come south over East Texas or possibly some distance to the east. Either way, warmer than normal will continue through about Wednesday and then cooler after that.
392. beell
East Northern Section
Storm warnings - Issued: 0800 UTC Sat 26 Jan

At 260000 UTC, low 53 north 37 west 944 expected 58 north 24 west 931 by 270000 UTC. Winds will reach storm force 10 between 50 and 200 miles of the centre in the northwestern semicircle until 262100 UTC. Winds will also reach storm force 10 or violent storm force 11 between 50 and 200 miles of the centre, later between 100 and 300 miles of the centre, in the southeastern semicircle throughout. Also, winds are expected to reach hurricane force 12 at times between 90 and 120 miles of the centre in the southeastern quadrant until 261600 UTC. Northeasterly winds will also reach storm force 10 or violent storm force 11 in Denmark Strait and the north of West Northern Section from 261300 UTC. Southeasterly winds May also reach storm force 10 later in Norwegian Basin.

metoffice.gov.uk
Beaufort Scale/Wikipedia

Wheeeeeeee!!




We now have Winter Storm Luna...other than Euclid (blizzard from Oklahoma to Maine, historic Christmas tornado outbreak across Mississippi Valley), it looks like this one will be the most significant one named by The Weather Channel yet.

394. VR46L
Winds upto 42 kts here ...

Met eireann
Gale warning

Southerly winds will increase to gale force on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea this afternoon.
Issued at 12:00 on 26-Jan-2013
Quoting beell:
East Northern Section
Storm warnings - Issued: 0800 UTC Sat 26 Jan

At 260000 UTC, low 53 north 37 west 944 expected 58 north 24 west 931 by 270000 UTC. Winds will reach storm force 10 between 50 and 200 miles of the centre in the northwestern semicircle until 262100 UTC. Winds will also reach storm force 10 or violent storm force 11 between 50 and 200 miles of the centre, later between 100 and 300 miles of the centre, in the southeastern semicircle throughout. Also, winds are expected to reach hurricane force 12 at times between 90 and 120 miles of the centre in the southeastern quadrant until 261600 UTC. Northeasterly winds will also reach storm force 10 or violent storm force 11 in Denmark Strait and the north of West Northern Section from 261300 UTC. Southeasterly winds May also reach storm force 10 later in Norwegian Basin.

metoffice.gov.uk
Beaufort Scale/Wikipedia

Wheeeeeeee!!





A wee bit choppy, out there eh ?
397. beell
Quoting pottery:

A wee bit choppy, out there eh ?


I've been in the Gulf of Mexico on a 200' geo survey boat in 18' seas. I really thought I was Mr. Macho at the time...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We now have Winter Storm Luna...other than Euclid (blizzard from Oklahoma to Maine, historic Christmas tornado outbreak across Mississippi Valley), it looks like this one will be the most significant one named by The Weather Channel yet.

I can`t remember the K storm which one was?
LOL, curious if we'll get any ship reports on the winds, wave heights, or lowest pressure anywhere close to the worst quadrants of the Atlantic bomb...
Quoting beell:
East Northern Section
Storm warnings - Issued: 0800 UTC Sat 26 Jan

At 260000 UTC, low 53 north 37 west 944 expected 58 north 24 west 931 by 270000 UTC. Winds will reach storm force 10 between 50 and 200 miles of the centre in the northwestern semicircle until 262100 UTC. Winds will also reach storm force 10 or violent storm force 11 between 50 and 200 miles of the centre, later between 100 and 300 miles of the centre, in the southeastern semicircle throughout. Also, winds are expected to reach hurricane force 12 at times between 90 and 120 miles of the centre in the southeastern quadrant until 261600 UTC. Northeasterly winds will also reach storm force 10 or violent storm force 11 in Denmark Strait and the north of West Northern Section from 261300 UTC. Southeasterly winds May also reach storm force 10 later in Norwegian Basin.

metoffice.gov.uk
Beaufort Scale/Wikipedia

Wheeeeeeee!!



Wheeeeeee!! for only those who haven't been there. I have and it's no fun hanging on for dear life and hoping all the welds and bolts holding things together don't break in the strain.

When you've been washed across the deck and slammed into things, this gets old very, very fast. And after that you appreciate the shade of an oak tree all the more.
Quoting DocNDswamp:
LOL, curious if we'll get any ship reports on the winds, wave heights, or lowest pressure anywhere close to the worst quadrants of the Atlantic bomb...
I speak from experience that I would not want to be anywhere near that monster.....I have been through some bad ones. Great Lakes and the Atlantic.
Quoting beell:


I've been in the Gulf of Mexico on a 200' geo survey boat in 18' seas. I really thought I was Mr. Macho at the time...

LOL, I love monster waves.
Especially when I'm on the beach, or better still, up a hill, watching them roll in and explode.
Been over some big ones in small boats, but I never enjoyed it !
Quoting allancalderini:
I can`t remember the K storm which one was?

Khan. Yesterday's storm that brought ice and snow to the Mid-Atlantic.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Indeed Hydrus, I'm sure marine interests have planned to delay or detour around it for days as long as it's been forecast... Then again, given the storm's size pretty nasty over quite a stretch to completely avoid some impacts... The OSCAT and GFS analysis shows swath 40 kt winds extending well below to near 45N...

EDIT / Add - Thanks for those reports Skye!
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EST Saturday 26 January 2013
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.3 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 24.6°F
Dewpoint: 11.8°F
Humidity: 58 %
Wind: SSW 3 mph
Wind Chill: 21
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Khan. Yesterday's storm that brought ice and snow to the Mid-Atlantic.
thanks