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Bitter cold and heavy lake effect snows continue in the Midwest and Northeast U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:18 PM GMT on January 23, 2013

A classic January North American cold wave continues to bring bitter cold to much of Eastern Canada and the Midwest and Northeast U.S., and heavy lake effect snows to the shores of the Great Lakes. The intense cold was centered near the Ontario/Quebec border this Wednesday morning, where a numbingly low temperature of -45°F (-43°C) was observed at Rouyn, Quebec. The 2 mph wind created a wind chill of -54°F (-48°C). One other station in Canada, Pointe Claveau, Quebec also reported a wind chill of -54°F, thanks to a temperature of -19°F (-28°C) and a wind of 38 mph. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Wednesday morning in eleven states east of the Rockies. The coldest air was centered over Northern Maine, where the temperature plummeted to -36°F (-37°C) at Estcourt Station. No doubt the most fun place to be in all of North America this morning was on top of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire, where the temperature of -35°F (-37°C) combined with a wind of 69 mph to create a truly astonishing wind chill of -85°F (-65°C)!

The weather was a bit less extreme, but nonetheless notably cold, in Washington DC, which bottomed out at 15°F this morning--the coldest it has been there in nearly four years, since March 3, 2009. DC hit a high of just 32°F on Tuesday--the first high temperature of 32° or below in DC since January 22, 2012. The forecast calls for DC to remain below freezing for a 6-day period. According to Ian Livingston of the Capital Weather Gang, the last time D.C. had more than four consecutive days below freezing was during the winter of 2004 - 2005, when the city had a 6-day below-freezing streak. Here in Southeast Michigan where I live, it got below zero for the first time in nearly two years on Tuesday. During my late afternoon cross-country ski adventure on the frozen lake that I live by, I alternated between marveling at the beauty of the swirling "snow devils" kicked up by the gusts of 20 mph, and quailing before their brutal impact in the 7°F cold. I prefer it about 20° warmer for my cross-country ski adventures, thank you!


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tuesday's lake effect snowstorms taken at 3:20 pm EST January 22, 2013. The most concentrated band of snow was affecting the east shore of Lake Ontario (far right of image) near Oswego, New York. Up to 32" of snow fell in 24 hours in this band. Note the thin streaks of snow to the southwest of Lake Michigan in north central Illinois. According the the National Weather Service in Chicago, these bands of snow were lake-effect induced, but not from Lake Michigan--the snow was due to cold air flowing over warm waters in power plant cooling ponds. Image credit: NASA.

The frigid Arctic air blasting over the unusually warm Great Lakes have created more than a foot of lake effect lake effect snows in the lees of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and Lake Michigan. Bennetts Bridge, in Oswego County, New York, got a truly prodigious dumping from a Lake Ontario snow band--32" of snow in the 24 hours ending at 7 am Tuesday. As of 9 am EST Wednesday, here were the top snow amounts so far from this lake effect snow event:

38" Fulton, NY
36.5" Phoenix, NY (7 miles NNE)
32" Bennetts Bridge, NY
24.8" Lacona, NY
24.8" Ripley, NY
19" Pulaski, NY
18" Sterling, NY
18" Camden, NY
13" Perrysburg, NY
12" Sinclairville, NY
12" Collins, NY

Snow on the ground:
14.5" Kirtland, OH
13.5" Montville, OH
16" Fairview, PA
16" Franklin Center, PA
13" Erie, PA (6 miles SW of town)

According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, some world-record point snowfalls from the Great Lakes region include:

7” in 30 minutes at West Seneca, NY on Dec. 2, 2010
12” in 1 hour at Copenhagen, New York on Dec. 2, 1966
17.5” in 2 hours at Oswego, New York on Jan. 26, 1972
22” in 3 hours at Valparaiso, Indiana on Dec. 18, 1981
51” in 16 hours at Bennetts Bridge, New York on Jan. 17-18, 1959
77” in 24 hours at Montague Township on the Tug Hill Plateau of New York on Jan. 11-12, 1997

Although the current Arctic air outbreak is severe, it has broken very few cold temperature records. No airport weather stations east of the Rockies set minimum low temperature records for the date on either Monday or Tuesday, though a number of stations did set their record for the coldest maximum temperature for the date Tuesday. These stations included Marquette, MI (-3°) , Flint, MI (10°), Muskegon, MI (10°), Dayton, OH (15°), and South Bend, IN (9°). The place to be Tuesday was the Southwest U.S., where Phoenix (81°), Tucson (81°), and San Diego (80°) all set record highs for the date.

Heavy lake effect snows are increased by warm waters, lack of ice
This week's exceptional lake effect snows were substantially increased by near-record warm Great Lakes water temperatures. These conditions were caused by the fact that 2012 was the warmest year on record over much of the Great Lakes region. According to NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL), water temperatures averaged over Lake Ontario are currently about 3°F above average, and range from 2 - 3°F warmer than average over Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, and Lake Huron. Lake Erie, which is shallow and heats up and cools down relatively quickly, is only about 0.2°F above average. Warm air holds more water vapor, and the largest lake effect snow storms tend to occur early in November and December when the lakes are at their warmest, and there is more moisture available to make heavy snow. If the lakes are frozen, they generate very little in the way of lake effect snow, since little moisture can escape upwards from the ice. At the beginning of this week, ice cover on the Great Lakes was below average, which helped generate a larger lake effect snow event than usual for January. Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, according to a 2012 study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters, which could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also largely responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice in summer. The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in lower lake levels. As I blogged about last week, water levels on Lake Michigan and Lake Huron were at their lowest December water levels on record, and are predicted to set an all-time low by March.



Figure 2. Current Great Lakes ice coverage on January 23, 2013 (top) compared to the average Great Lakes ice coverage during 1973 - 2002 for the January 22 - 28 time period (bottom). This year's near-record warm water temperatures led to below-average ice coverage on the lakes until mid-January, but this week's cold blast has helped them catch up to near-normal ice cover. Image credit: Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL).

Links
Andrew Freedman of Climate Central has an excellent post on how this week's cold blast was triggered by a warming of the stratosphere that began in early January.

Wunderground's Lee Grenci has detailed description on how these Sudden Stratospheric Warming events occur.

My post last week, Drought predicted to continue though April; record low Lake Michigan water levels.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Jeff Masters
-8 F sunrise sundog
-8 F sunrise sundog
clear and cold makes for a sunrise sundog over the Mississippi River, St. Paul, MN
Snow Squall Offshore
Snow Squall Offshore
It was amazing to watch the rapid shifts and changes in the storm clouds as they scudded across the incoming tide at sunset this evening.
A VERY COLD SUNRISE
A VERY COLD SUNRISE
this morning! It was 8 degrees and the coldest this year.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks Doc.
Cool image Dr Masters.



From previous blog....

Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Sunburn comes from UV radiation, not IR. If there were some real-time UV measuring instrumentation available, you might find it very interesting. I trust that UV insolation varies dramatically at higher latitudes.

There are times, at my latitude (about 45 N) and altitude (anywhere from 3500 ft to 6000 ft, depending on whee I am), that the light of the sun literally has a biting or stinging feel to it. This was especially pronounced back in '99 and '00, but still occurs. It is a very different sensation from the (to me) delicious feel of the intense Florida sun on and August afternoon.

The only 'home-spun' way I know of to get a even a crude sense of ambient UV is to have items with day-glow colors (such as are made for hazard signalling items, beach toys, and to glow under black lights) out doors in areas of deep shade. They can take on more of a glow, it seems, but it takes some practice getting a sense of it. It is much like the glow they acquire when, just after sunset, there is a lot of UV light out there still, and these objects seems almost to be lighted from with in.

At any rate, probably a good idea to keep some good dark sunglasses at hand.

Yes, very true.

Anyways, I'm going to bed, way past my bedtime.
I'll leave you with this. One of my favourite songs.




Enjoy and Goodnight, Stay warm. Stay safe if driving.
Thanks Doc, These lake effect snowbands can be can be very heavy with the right set up. I ran into one on the Turn-pike in Indiana back in 1981,couldn't hardly see the road!lol
warming up a bit here now..............
All that cold air is being pushed toward the South by the warm air which drove the atmospheric circulation to the North. It's been a rather warm Winter in my area, but not it's time to catch up on the flow of thermal energy. And, as a result, lots of lake effect snow. One wonders how much "lake effect" snow will result in future around the Arctic Ocean, as the sea-ice decline continues. Furthermore, if there's a big increase in high latitude snowfall, might that result in the beginning of a new Ice Age? An Ice Age would start if more snow fell over land at Arctic latitudes than melted later in the year. That would take quite a bit, but for comparison, the Arctic is now said to be a "snow desert" because there's so little moisture available in Winter...
Speaking of lake effect snow, 3 counties in SE MI have been put under a lake effect snow watch. They are Huron, Sanilac, and St. Clair counties for snow accumulations in excess of 8". The set up is right for accumulating lake effect in those counties, even areas just to the west of them.
Quoting EricGreen:
All that cold air is being pushed toward the South by the warm air which drove the atmospheric circulation to the North. It's been a rather warm Winter in my area, but not it's time to catch up on the flow of thermal energy. And, as a result, lots of lake effect snow. One wonders how much "lake effect" snow will result in future around the Arctic Ocean, as the sea-ice decline continues. Furthermore, if there's a big increase in high latitude snowfall, might that result in the beginning of a new Ice Age? An Ice Age would start if more snow fell over land at Arctic latitudes than melted later in the year. That would take quite a bit, but for comparison, the Arctic is now said to be a "snow desert" because there's so little moisture available in Winter...
well the climate scientists say we are due for the beginning of the next ice age, comes on slowly in our lifetime years BUT..if one does,our grand children will certainly see a change
Florida receives little to no snow annually. Southern Florida receives almost none, ever. In northern Florida, flakes will typically fall once a year or once every few years...now ive been in the Tampa area since late 84 and i HAVE seen snow flurries here one year..didnt last long and for sure didnt stick..last good snow storm here was in 1977, enough to cover car windows etc
And with every up-dated forecast,SNOW seems to be on the menu for my area! Don'tcha just love the way things evolve in the winter-time forecasts? Happy!
Quoting LargoFl:
Florida receives little to no snow annually. Southern Florida receives almost none, ever. In northern Florida, flakes will typically fall once a year or once every few years...now ive been in the Tampa area since late 84 and i HAVE seen snow flurries here one year..didnt last long and for sure didnt stick..last good snow storm here was in 1977, enough to cover car windows etc
Isn't that the reason most people migrate to Florida? LOL
Quoting overwash12:
Isn't that the reason most people migrate to Florida? LOL

For me, it's the reason why I don't go to Florida or any other southern state during the winter.
Quoting EricGreen:
All that cold air is being pushed toward the South by the warm air which drove the atmospheric circulation to the North. It's been a rather warm Winter in my area, but not it's time to catch up on the flow of thermal energy. And, as a result, lots of lake effect snow. One wonders how much "lake effect" snow will result in future around the Arctic Ocean, as the sea-ice decline continues. Furthermore, if there's a big increase in high latitude snowfall, might that result in the beginning of a new Ice Age? An Ice Age would start if more snow fell over land at Arctic latitudes than melted later in the year. That would take quite a bit, but for comparison, the Arctic is now said to be a "snow desert" because there's so little moisture available in Winter...


I can't speak for the whole arctic, but as someone who lives just south of the arctic circle, let me tell you, there's no shortage of snow here in the winter ;)
12z GFS




12z NAM is much farther south
Quoting LargoFl:
Florida receives little to no snow annually. Southern Florida receives almost none, ever. In northern Florida, flakes will typically fall once a year or once every few years...now ive been in the Tampa area since late 84 and i HAVE seen snow flurries here one year..didnt last long and for sure didnt stick..last good snow storm here was in 1977, enough to cover car windows etc


Actually, the '77 snow covered the ground in some areas as well. The snow totals on 01/19/77 in the Tampa Bay area ranged from just a trace south of the bay to just under 2" of accumulation in the Brooksville area, or about 40 miles north of Tampa. Generally speaking, the areas a few miles inland saw a bit more snow in that event than did the immediate coast. But residents along the Gulf beaches were treated to extended periods of steady snowfall on that day and in the hours just after daybreak, a most unusual occurrence for central Florida.

We used to get snow events more frequently here, back in the 80s and especially during the 70s. I was not here then but from searching the records and from what others who lived here long ago have said, there was measurable snow in the Tampa Bay area also in February of 1958 and in a very localized event in January of either 1963 or '64, when "Gulf effect" snow covered the surface of a golf course in St. Petersburg for maybe an hour or two one morning and during a major arctic outbreak.

As I mentioned in a post on Dr. Masters' previous blog entry a bit earlier, we have not seen a major arctic outbreak this year in Florida at all, nor over pretty much all of the Southeastern US. I am wondering if any long term models are hinting at any such possibility or if we are going to have a winter without a significant freeze event over our area and/or measurable snow and deep cold elsewhere in the South.
Quoting overwash12:
Isn't that the reason most people migrate to Florida? LOL
I go to the mall and in the parking lots are all northern license plates lol..but this year more than normal.must be real cold up north
Interesting cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea.





Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Interesting cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea.





It looks sub-tropical,to me anyway! Thanks for the pic!
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EST Wednesday 23 January 2013
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.2 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 6.1°F
Dewpoint: -2.2°F
Humidity: 68 %
Wind: WSW 3 mph
Wind Chill: 0
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Are those actual temps? 46 below is pretty cold!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Interesting cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea.







It seems as if Europe and Asia are getting the bulk of the extreme winter weather... again.. this season and N. America has mostly been left out of the really interesting events.

Of course there are many who are glad about that and understandably so. But it is worth mentioning that things can be quite different in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere. For example, the record warmth that we saw over most of North America last year was not nearly as apparent on the Eurasian continent, where extreme cold DID happen in the winter and the Spring season was not as warm or hot as it was here. But it was the extreme and extended warmth in North America which tipped the scales in terms of the global record keeping.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Interesting cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea.






It is an interesting cyclone, nice image. The GFS and CMC, on the FSU cyclone page, show it as a shallow warm-core system.

GFS:


CMC:
nice warm up by day 8 with reasonable above normal lows for east





This is the last 24 hours of readings of air quality at the US embassy in Beijing, China. DO NOT BUY CHINESE GOODS! no matter what! China's air pollution is melting Arctic ice. Their behavior will eventually cost the USA all of our low lying land. When you buy a TV or tires or a car, make sure it is not made in China. Please.

BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-24-2013 00:00; PM2.5; 255.0; 305; Hazardous
1h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 23:00; PM2.5; 398.0; 432; Hazardous
2h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 22:00; PM2.5; 378.0; 419; Hazardous
3h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 21:00; PM2.5; 399.0; 433; Hazardous
4h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 20:00; PM2.5; 336.0; 386; Hazardous
5h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 19:00; PM2.5; 321.0; 371; Hazardous
6h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 18:00; PM2.5; 297.0; 347; Hazardous
7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 17:00; PM2.5; 273.0; 323; Hazardous
8h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 16:00; PM2.5; 301.0; 351; Hazardous
9h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 15:00; PM2.5; 359.0; 407; Hazardous
10h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 14:00; PM2.5; 392.0; 428; Hazardous
11h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 13:00; PM2.5; 395.0; 430; Hazardous
11h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-22-2013 12:00 to 01-23-2013 11:59; PM2.5 24hr avg; 379.3; 420; Hazardous

12h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 12:00; PM2.5; 396.0; 431; Hazardous
13h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 11:00; PM2.5; 402.0; 435; Hazardous
14h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 10:00; PM2.5; 401.0; 434; Hazardous
15h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 09:00; PM2.5; 388.0; 426; Hazardous
16h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 08:00; PM2.5; 394.0; 430; Hazardous
17h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 07:00; PM2.5; 422.0; 448; Hazardous
18h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 417.0; 445; Hazardous
19h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 424.0; 450; Hazardous
20h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 04:00; PM2.5; 411.0; 441; Hazardous
21h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 03:00; PM2.5; 437.0; 458; Hazardous
22h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 02:00; PM2.5; 439.0; 459; Hazardous
23h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 01:00; PM2.5; 439.0; 459; Hazardous
Thank you for the new blog Dr Masters.
I experienced LES living in Milwaukee Wisconsin most of my life. It usually was the heavy wet stuff too.
next significant system will be mid next week

warm up followed by a second arctic blast after a rain snow event




dipiction 700mb/850mb for the end of next week going into first weekend of feb
Thanks for the post Doc!! I hope the ice can build significantly enough to slow down the moisture loss from the lakes.
lunch break is up back to work be back at 3
Always the bestest pix on this site! Thanks Doc and all the rest of you!
Quoting LargoFl:
Florida receives little to no snow annually. Southern Florida receives almost none, ever. In northern Florida, flakes will typically fall once a year or once every few years...now ive been in the Tampa area since late 84 and i HAVE seen snow flurries here one year..didnt last long and for sure didnt stick..last good snow storm here was in 1977, enough to cover car windows etc


Quoting overwash12:
Isn't that the reason most people migrate to Florida? LOL


Quoting wxchaser97:

For me, it's the reason why I don't go to Florida or any other southern state during the winter.


Well then, surely you must come to visit us in the Spring or especially in the summer months, most especially the late summer. That is when we get our most interesting weather events here, normally and with a few exceptions.

I was born and raised very near where you are, in SE Michigan. I'll never forget the first time I came to Florida in the Summer. I was 11 years old at the time and spent five weeks here, from early June to mid-July in 1970. I stayed with my grandfather while my grandmother went overseas with my mother and sister that year and it was in a Florida house that had no air conditioning! What an invigorating experience that was! Yes, back in those days, not everyone had A/C in Florida, believe it or not.

And anyone who lives here knows that one feels the heat most during the early summer, before the rainy season really gets cranked up so that the daily heat and humidity are quickly mitigated by cloud buildup, showers and eventually the near-daily thunderstorms which often include blasts of cold air downdrafts. But the rainy season does not usually get going until at least late June if not later, so before that you get the full effect of the heat an humidity throughout the 24 hour cycle. Nevertheless, if one is into weather in general then the summer in Florida provides many interesting meteorological diversions as opposed to the "sunny and mild" that is more typical of winter.
Quoting overwash12:
Are those actual temps? 46 below is pretty cold!
yeah thats what is shown low temps for next five days tonight is cold then a slow moderation after that till end of next week then we get round 2 of the cold

40 below zero? Perfect T-shirt&shorts weather for running a 6K(4mile). Shoes optional.
Quoting aspectre:
40 below zero? Perfect T-shirt&shorts weather for running a 6K(4mile). Shoes optional.
As long as there is no wind,but you will have to run fast and don't stop! You will freeze up,lol!
Strange to read about the Dread Cold Weather in the North.
Here, the Dry Season has well and truly set in.
Had to fight a bush fire all afternoon yesterday.

Here is "Firestorm" on Pans.

Thanks Dr. Masters for the update and the links for more info.

Reading those are articles on "sudden stratospheric warming" is kind of like drinking from a fire-hose!

Did not quite find my answer about where the heat comes from to warm the stratosphere. The articles mentioned compressional warming due to pressure changes and atmospheric waves. Our weather has been referred to as a 'closed-loop' system, so it has to balance itself out somehow.

What I did get, is that it is not just about temps. It is also about an astoundingly complex combination of temps, wind to transport them, and pressure changes to cause the wind.

The models predicting climate change must be amazingly complex.

On 'lake affect snows', a college roommate from Wisconsin said as a kid, they listed to the weather on TV for those exact words, because it meant no school the next day!

Thanks again.

Quoting FLWaterFront:






Well then, surely you must come to visit us in the Spring or especially in the summer months, most especially the late summer. That is when we get our most interesting weather events here, normally and with a few exceptions.

I was born and raised very near where you are, in SE Michigan. I'll never forget the first time I came to Florida in the Summer. I was 11 years old at the time and spent five weeks here, from early June to mid-July in 1970. I stayed with my grandfather while my grandmother went overseas with my mother and sister that year and it was in a Florida house that had no air conditioning! What an invigorating experience that was! Yes, back in those days, not everyone had A/C in Florida, believe it or not.

And anyone who lives here knows that one feels the heat most during the early summer, before the rainy season really gets cranked up so that the daily heat and humidity are quickly mitigated by cloud buildup, showers and eventually the near-daily thunderstorms which often include blasts of cold air downdrafts. But the rainy season does not usually get going until at least late June if not later, so before that you get the full effect of the heat an humidity throughout the 24 hour cycle. Nevertheless, if one is into weather in general then the summer in Florida provides many interesting meteorological diversions as opposed to the "sunny and mild" that is more typical of winter.

I actually have been to Florida many times in my short life, from Jacksonville to Marco Island to places in between. All have been in the summer so I have experienced the heat, storms, and even was in a cone of uncertainty once down there. I did enjoy my vacations down there, and I might be having another one in Florida this year.
Quoting overwash12:
As long as there is no wind,but you will have to run fast and don't stop! You will freeze up,lol!


Actually, you need about a 6 MPH wind that is going in the same direction that you are!
As you all that have to, or dare negate the ice today..remember chances are there is a camera watching.




Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Always the bestest pix on this site! Thanks Doc and all the rest of you!


I almost hung that sundog pic in my blog this morning but got distracted.
Quoting DFWdad:
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update and the links for more info.

Reading those are articles on "sudden stratospheric warming" is kind of like drinking from a fire-hose!

Did not quite find my answer about where the heat comes from to warm the stratosphere.



It usually seems to come from a pool of warm water. This year it started in Asia. One year it came out of a warm spot in the Eastern Atlantic.
Thanks Doc, Morning All....Evening Aussie if your still around?
Aussie,

Was that song "How Deep is your Low?" #418 previous post.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Actually, you need about a 6 MPH wind that is going in the same direction that you are!
Hey,I used to run in 15 below,and only wore a sweatsuit with a hoody. Your nose hairs freeze! lol
Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS




12z NAM is much farther south
Yes c'mon GFS!.4-6 inches would be greatly appreciated!.Now watch he models flip flop back again..I hope the NAM is wrong.
Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, a post about it being cold? shocking, until i saw the coup de grace, "Heavy lake effect snows are increased by warm waters, lack of ice".

you couldnt help yourself could you?

i promise i will become a climate-fearing liberal if just once dont use the words "warm" or "warming" in your blog post. i smell an agenda.








A huge agenda, indeed. In fact, this post reeks of an agenda geared toward Anthropogenic Global Warming. Always the same, never a change. I will also join you and become a climate fearing liberal.

Though I'd imagine we won't see that any time soon.


Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, a post about it being cold? shocking, until i saw the coup de grace, "Heavy lake effect snows are increased by warm waters, lack of ice".

you couldnt help yourself could you?

i promise i will become a climate-fearing liberal if just once dont use the words "warm" or "warming" in your blog post. i smell an agenda.







Ehn~ Give it a little time, M8, and you'll be standing in line with all the other doubters, waiting for your government handout of snorkel and fins. Just say "Glub!"
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Ehn~ Give it a little time, M8, and you'll be standing in line with all the other doubters, waiting for your government handout of snorkel and fins. Just say "Glub!"


maybe he's inland and it'll be drier.
Damn The temp outside just about made it above zero for the first time since Saturday about noon. It got up to -2F this morning and now it is on the way back down, it is currently -7F with a windchill of -31F. It is no wonder manufacturers test cars, brakes and batteries around here.
Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, a post about it being cold? shocking, until i saw the coup de grace, "Heavy lake effect snows are increased by warm waters, lack of ice".

you couldnt help yourself could you?

i promise i will become a climate-fearing liberal if just once dont use the words "warm" or "warming" in your blog post. i smell an agenda.





some big news is lake effect snow... what eXactly enables that??
it ain't ice covered water.. and well, what might it take to keep these water so extensively ice free in mid January?
if he's going to write about this big story, then it's the science that dictates warm waters be cited.
wow, some folks quit at nothing for their fallacious diatribes
Quoting TomballTXPride:



A huge agenda, indeed. In fact, this post reeks of an agenda geared toward Anthropogenic Global Warming. Always the same, never a change. I will also join you and become a climate fearing liberal.

Though I'd imagine we won't see that any time soon.


Ahh,Go ahead and become a liberal,you might like it! Not to mention the pluses in the upper righthand corner!
Despite the brutal cold we are breaking very few record cold temps. For the month, record highs temps significantly out number record lows. Only 100 record low max temps yesterday. Maybe the lows will catch up over the next week?

Month to Date Jan 1 - 22, 2013
1,070 High Max
1,587 High Min
973 Low Max
298 Low Min
Quoting overwash12:
Ahh,Go ahead and become a liberal,you might like it! Not to mention the pluses in the upper righthand corner!





OMG!!!


LOL

:)



Quoting overwash12:
Ahh,Go ahead and become a liberal,you might like it! Not to mention the pluses in the upper righthand corner!


LMAO ...Too Funny




Anyways

The swirl forming in this loop is giving me a bit of concern

Loop Embedded


A big factor that will be important to watch during the upcomming 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season will be the inestability in the Atlantic/Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.Depending on how high or not the inestability may be,we will see more stronger storms or not.



Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A big factor that will be important to watch during the upcomming 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season will be the inestability in the Atlantic/Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.Depending on how high or not the inestability may be,we will see more stronger storms or not.



Link

True.
Or not.
As the case may be.
Or won't.
Oceansat
Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, a post about it being cold? shocking, until i saw the coup de grace, "Heavy lake effect snows are increased by warm waters, lack of ice".

you couldnt help yourself could you?

i promise i will become a climate-fearing liberal if just once dont use the words "warm" or "warming" in your blog post. i smell an agenda.








I certainly hope you are joking. The only agenda from Dr. Masters is to detail why lake effect snow may be enhanced during this snow event. What "non-agenda" word would you use to describe something that is warmer than normal?
Vertical Cross section of Geopotential Height anomaly



The daily geopotential height anomalies at 17 pressure levels are shown for the previous 120 days as indicated, and they are normalized by standard deviation using 1979-2000 base period. The anomalies are calculated by subtracting 1979-2000 daily climatology, and then averaged over the polar cap poleward of 65°N.

The blue (red) colors represent a strong (weak) polar vortex. The black solid lines show the zero anomalies.
Quoting MrNatural:


Actually, the flat earth-creationist types probably constitute an interesting market.

Do I sense another huge boom in Florida real-estate in the not-too-distant future?
Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS




12z NAM is much farther south


Give me some of that NAM!
Quoting MrNatural:
I certainly hope you are joking. The only agenda from Dr. Masters is to detail why lake effect snow may be enhanced during this snow event. What "non-agenda" word would you use to describe something that is warmer than normal?
Some have apparently been brainwashed into adopting such a deeply ideological anti-science stance that the mere appearance of the syllable "warm" in a blog post sends them into arm-flailing, spittle-flecked conniptions. It almost makes one afraid to use such benign words as "swarming" or "warmonger" lest they be virulently set upon for having the gall to espouse some nebulous, nefarious "agenda".

;-)
pottery, so far 2013 has started in PR with a deficit in rainfall. (-1.61) As I posted earlier about the inestability in the Atlantic/Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico,it will be interesting to follow this factor in the comming months. How has been the rainfall so far this year in your neck of the woods?

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
pottery, so far 2013 has started in PR with a deficit in rainfall. (-1.61) As I posted earlier about the inestability in the Atlantic/Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico,it will be interesting to follow this factor in the comming months. How has been the rainfall so far this year in your neck of the woods?

Link

Rainy season started off slow, but from late Sept to first week of Jan the rain was incessant.
Atmosphere has completely dried up now, and dry season is here.

I agree with what you posted, obviously.
But that applies to all storm seasons, right ?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
pottery, so far 2013 has started in PR with a deficit in rainfall. (-1.61) As I posted earlier about the inestability in the Atlantic/Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico,it will be interesting to follow this factor in the comming months. How has been the rainfall so far this year in your neck of the woods?

Link


In the N Leewards... we had one or two regular daily showers but no significant rains. I think the rainfall amount will be near average this january, which is a little over 2 inches. Jan - feb - march are our driest months. Hope april will come fast lol....
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some have apparently been brainwashed into adopting such a deeply ideological anti-science stance that the mere appearance of the syllable "warm" in a blog post sends them into arm-flailing, spittle-flecked conniptions. It almost makes one afraid to use such benign words as "swarming" or "warmonger" lest they be virulently set upon for having the gall to espouse some nebulous, nefarious "agenda".

;-)


I never once thought that it would be possible to politicize the following:
- "warming tray"
- "to warm up the car"
- and in the bullpen, "So and so is warming up"
Quoting pottery:

Rainy season started off slow, but from late Sept to first week of Jan the rain was incessant.
Atmosphere has completely dried up now, and dry season is here.

I agree with what you posted, obviously.
But that applies to all storm seasons, right ?


Surely yes.
Quoting CaribBoy:


In the N Leewards... we had one or two regular daily showers but no significant rains. I think the rainfall amount will be near average this january, which is a little over 2 inches. Jan - feb - march is our driest months. Hope april will come fast lol....


Hopefully the N Leewards get more rain this year than the past couple of years.
Quoting CaribBoy:


In the N Leewards... we had one or two regular daily showers but no significant rains. I think the rainfall amount will be near average this january, which is a little over 2 inches. Jan - feb - march is our driest months. Hope april will come fast lol....

I would love it to rain here all the way through ....
But it's not going to happen.
Had to battle my first bush fire of the year yesterday.
Wasn't too bad, as the bush is still green, mostly. just the undergrowth was burning, and the wind was almost calm.
Still, I'm getting too old for that stuff.....
Quoting MrNatural:


I never once thought that it would be possible to politicize the following:
- "warming tray"
- "to warm up the car"
- and in the bullpen, "So and so is warming up"

Your'e getting warm.....
I have been in Florida for 16 year and we did not have A/C we got it in 2004 believe it or not. but i have been in 5 Hurricane and 3 of them or in the eye, one of them being in a cat 3 Hurricane! but i love it in S FL!:)

Quoting FLWaterFront:






Well then, surely you must come to visit us in the Spring or especially in the summer months, most especially the late summer. That is when we get our most interesting weather events here, normally and with a few exceptions.

I was born and raised very near where you are, in SE Michigan. I'll never forget the first time I came to Florida in the Summer. I was 11 years old at the time and spent five weeks here, from early June to mid-July in 1970. I stayed with my grandfather while my grandmother went overseas with my mother and sister that year and it was in a Florida house that had no air conditioning! What an invigorating experience that was! Yes, back in those days, not everyone had A/C in Florida, believe it or not.

And anyone who lives here knows that one feels the heat most during the early summer, before the rainy season really gets cranked up so that the daily heat and humidity are quickly mitigated by cloud buildup, showers and eventually the near-daily thunderstorms which often include blasts of cold air downdrafts. But the rainy season does not usually get going until at least late June if not later, so before that you get the full effect of the heat an humidity throughout the 24 hour cycle. Nevertheless, if one is into weather in general then the summer in Florida provides many interesting meteorological diversions as opposed to the "sunny and mild" that is more typical of winter.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hopefully the Leewards get more rain this year than the past couple of years.


...especially 2012! If we didn't get Rafeal... that would probably be one of the most boring year of my life XD
Quoting pottery:

I would love it to rain here all the way through ....
But it's not going to happen.
Had to battle my first bush fire of the year yesterday.
Wasn't too bad, as the bush is still green, mostly. just the undergrowth was burning, and the wind was almost calm.
Still, I'm getting too old for that stuff.....


The lack of rain brings bush fires unfortunatly. Lol I'm glad I'm not the only one who loves the rain :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
next significant system will be mid next week

warm up followed by a second arctic blast after a rain snow event






anything for the northeast. Sorry for being so self-centered...
I don't have a long range GFS model run site
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


anything for the northeast. Sorry for being so self-centered...
I don't have a long range GFS model run site
This is a system on the 12z GFS at 384hrs and it would affect the NE. There is just one problem though, it's at 384hrs.
Looks like Oswald will regain tropical cyclone intensity.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I have been in Florida for 16 year and we did not have A/C we got it in 2004 believe it or not. but i have been in 5 Hurricane and 3 of them or in the eye, one of them being in a cat 3 Hurricane! but i love it in S FL!:)

SFL...29 years here... Always had A/C... BUT! I grew up in Ohio. It gets wickedly hot. I can remember many 100 degree days. We had no A/C. The difference to me is that in Ohio the temp might drop 30 degrees after dusk. And those very, very warm days are far and few between.. SFL, I'm sure I have been in the same hurricanes as you... Wilma was the worst for me here. And Yes!, I love south Florida also... I'm sure many would trade places with us right now SFL.
I am happy.

18z NAM show a lot more snow for a lot more people

The Montague record is VERY questionable and probably overestimated resulted by several sums during that 24 hour period, outside the standard way to measure the snow accumulation.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Some have apparently been brainwashed into adopting such a deeply ideological anti-science stance that the mere appearance of the syllable "warm" in a blog post sends them into arm-flailing, spittle-flecked conniptions. It almost makes one afraid to use such benign words as "swarming" or "warmonger" lest they be virulently set upon for having the gall to espouse some nebulous, nefarious "agenda".

;-)


Also if you mention gun ban on assault weapons, the notion is we're going to lose ALL our guns, when the topic is about assault weapons being banned.

Warm and sunny in SE TX today
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
18z NAM show a lot more snow for a lot more people

general snowfall of 5 to 10 cm or 2.5 to 5.0 inches
Thanks to people who are discussing weather and science on the blog today. I am hoping central NC receives a bit more snow than last Friday, but not really counting on it.

As for the people discussing anti-science / paranoia and conspiracy theories/"hidden agendas"....



We will gladly welcome you back to reality if you'd just pull your head outta there
its not a storm just a general snowfall

next week we get our storm building on the rtn flow
Friday and Saturday are going to be a complete mess here in North Carolina. The NWS is expecting 0.10-0.25" of accumulation (presumably Rain) across the Wilmington area. That's 0.10-0.25" that will rapidly freeze over by the afternoon hours as temperatures cool and sleet/freezing rain fall.

People in SE North Carolina are horrible drivers in general, much less drivers on ice.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Friday and Saturday are going to be a complete mess here in North Carolina. The NWS is expecting 0.10-0.25" of accumulation (presumably Rain) across the Wilmington area. That's 0.10-0.25" that will rapidly freeze over by the afternoon hours as temperatures cool and sleet/freezing rain fall.

People in SE North Carolina are horrible drivers in general, much less drivers on ice.


New Hanover County leads NC in traffic accidents..
Take that back, it's clouding up here, and has done so rapidly, with a vengeance.
Quoting wxchaser97:
This is a system on the 12z GFS at 384hrs and it would affect the NE. There is just one problem though, it's at 384hrs.


thanks anyway... I see Cody happy for some few flakes there
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some have apparently been brainwashed into adopting such a deeply ideological anti-science stance that the mere appearance of the syllable "warm" in a blog post sends them into arm-flailing, spittle-flecked conniptions. It almost makes one afraid to use such benign words as "swarming" or "warmonger" lest they be virulently set upon for having the gall to espouse some nebulous, nefarious "agenda".

;-)


You must be older than I thought. I think the last time I heard words like these were in a Red Skelton line in a movie. :-)
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Thanks to people who are discussing weather and science on the blog today. I am hoping central NC receives a bit more snow than last Friday, but not really counting on it.

As for the people discussing anti-science / paranoia and conspiracy theories/"hidden agendas"....



We will gladly welcome you back to reality if you'd just pull your head outta there


Yeah, I also read about it some early this morning on the NHC site. I don't really care about it though....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Friday and Saturday are going to be a complete mess here in North Carolina. The NWS is expecting 0.10-0.25" of accumulation (presumably Rain) across the Wilmington area. That's 0.10-0.25" that will rapidly freeze over by the afternoon hours as temperatures cool and sleet/freezing rain fall.

People in SE North Carolina are horrible drivers in general, much less drivers on ice.


How do you see things shaping up for central NC? Specifically the Raleigh area. Last Friday it was pouring snow for a bit but very little stuck due to the warm temps earlier in the week. It has been cold (by NC standards) the past couple days... so anything wintry that falls will have an easier time sticking. Just wondering what type of precip and just how much will actually fall. Thanks for anyones insight.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
18z NAM show a lot more snow for a lot more people



18Z NAM went a little north and left SE NC and some of northern SC out of the loop
Quoting RitaEvac:
Take that back, it's clouding up here, and has done so rapidly, with a vengeance.


I am just north of Hobby Airport. Almost solid cloud cover now. Was almost clear earlier. Well, except for the fog this morning.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am just north of Hobby Airport. Almost solid cloud cover now. Was almost clear earlier. Well, except for the fog this morning.


Formed outta nowhere on satellite and crawling east
Re: #61 --- that's a nice graphic... Everyone's quick to post things like the SST Anomalies, etc., but it would be nice during The Season to have someone posting the instability graphic as well.

(Thanks, TropwxPR!)
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


How do you see things shaping up for central NC? Specifically the Raleigh area. Last Friday it was pouring snow for a bit but very little stuck due to the warm temps earlier in the week. It has been cold (by NC standards) the past couple days... so anything wintry that falls will have an easier time sticking. Just wondering what type of precip and just how much will actually fall. Thanks for anyones insight.

I'd say expect 1-3" of snow Friday morning into the early afternoon followed by a transition to sleet and freezing rain (accumulations ~0.1").
Really? That is not even enough for an advisory...
That's for the DC area
358 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20
MPH THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ANY UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND
SLIPPERY. ANY SNOW COVERED SURFACES WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY THROUGH
THE MORNING RUSH.
Im disappointed with the Fri snow...it may not even snow at all..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Really? That is not even enough for an advisory...
That's for the DC area
358 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20
MPH THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ANY UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND
SLIPPERY. ANY SNOW COVERED SURFACES WILL REMAIN SLIPPERY THROUGH
THE MORNING RUSH.

Actually...it is.

Winter Weather Advisory
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather (snow, freezing rain, sleet, etc.) that present a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria.
These storms have been coming more often now...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Actually...it is.

Winter Weather Advisory
This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather (snow, freezing rain, sleet, etc.) that present a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria.


are you expecting one for the snow there?
Thats it, Im calling the gov of PA and telling him to stop making Old Man Winter mad so he gives us snow!
PLANET COMPARISON


It is a really cool video... Never seen one like it before. Like the background music...

the really big one (not even fitting in the screen is VY Canis Majoris I suppose, don't know which language that is
Quoting Doppler22:
Thats it, Im calling the gov of PA and telling him to stop making Old Man Winter mad so he gives us snow!


Im still waiting for ur email...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


are you expecting one for the snow there?

We probably won't see any snow accumulations here. We may get a Freezing Rain Advisory.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


anything for the northeast. Sorry for being so self-centered...
I don't have a long range GFS model run site


next significant system will be mid next week

warm up followed by a second arctic blast after a rain snow eventmore rain than snow maybe but surface icing is possible with warm up
then in wrap around




Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
PLANET COMPARISON


It is a really cool video... Never seen one like it before. Like the background music...



our planet is soooo tiny...yet it's all we got.
from our NWS,Wilmington NC-- right now the models dont have the best data in them

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY 2
COLD FRONTS THE 1ST OF WHICH PASSES MAINLY DRY BUT RE-SUPPLIES
THE AREA WITH COLD AND DRY AIR OF CANADIAN-TUNDRA ORIGIN THURSDAY.
FRONT NUMBER 2 BRINGS MOISTURE INTO AN INHERENTLY COLD AIR MASS
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EVAPOARTIVE COOLING BASED ON DRYNESS
OF THE EXISTING AIR MASS IN PLACE FRIDAY. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME ON PCPN-TYPE SINCE THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE HAS NOT BEEN
ADEQUATELY SAMPLED AND FULLY INITIATED WELL INTO PRESENT MODEL
RUNS.
..BUT SAFE TO SAY THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD AND A COLD RAIN
ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CLEARLY THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE LIMIT ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/QPF THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...AND HOW
ROBUST AND VIGOROUS A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OFF OUR COAST...IF AT
ALL..FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS PARTICULAR PACKAGE WE WILL ADVERTISE
A CHANCE OF -RA/SLEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BASED ON A MID
LINE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
These storms have been coming more often now...


I just saw that one on the 10pm forecast. Nasty looking blighter. Over Sardinia and on its way across Italy next.
I get the impression that these "mini coldcanes," might just get to be a feature of our winters?
Has anybody noticed that its a low of minus -21/C with a high of minus-17/C in Stockholm Sweden?
I haven't seen it that low there fro a long time on the European summary's.
Quoting PlazaRed:

I just saw that one on the 10pm forecast. Nasty looking blighter. Over Sardinia and on its way across Italy next.
I get the impression that these "mini coldcanes," might just get to be a feature of our winters?
Has anybody noticed that its a low of minus -21/C with a high of minus-17/C in Stockholm Sweden?
I haven't seen it that low there fro a long time on the European summary's.


These will probably be the first steps towards tropical cyclogenesis in the Mare Medierraneo in the future...

There is one...unofficially
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You must be older than I thought. I think the last time I heard words like these were in a Red Skelton line in a movie. :-)


He must have his thesaurus by his side looking for big words to insert. I'm not impressed.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You must be older than I thought. I think the last time I heard words like these were in a Red Skelton line in a movie. :-)


Blogger's ages are only going to get worse, much worse.
122. CJ5
Quoting RitaEvac:


Also if you mention gun ban on assault weapons, the notion is we're going to lose ALL our guns, when the topic is about assault weapons being banned.

Warm and sunny in SE TX today


Well, that is not quite the same. When you start talking about banning something that is part of rights of the people then you are starting down a slippery slope. In this case, "assault weapon" is a meaningless term. Automatic weapons have already been banned. So there is a history of the slippery slope. There was a previous ban on "assault weapons" and it did nothing to lower gun crime. The current talk of a weapons ban is only emotional has nothing to do with lower crime. In you comment you said "all our guns". If you are referring to yourself then I would encourage you to support the rights of ALL gun owners, not just the rights to carry and bear the guns you approve.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We probably won't see any snow accumulations here. We may get a Freezing Rain Advisory.


it's close-ing to you...

A gun debate, huh? Fun. Almost as fun as getting a Red Flag warning in January...


... Red flag warning in effect until 5 PM MST Thursday for wind and low relative humidity for the Front Range foothills...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a red flag warning for wind and low relative humidity... which is in effect until 5 PM MST Thursday.

Winds... west 15 to 20 mph with gusts 30 mph this evening increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 45 mph by Thursday afternoon.

One word: BLECH! :(



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


These will probably be the first steps towards tropical cyclogenesis in the Mare Medierraneo in the future...

There is one...unofficially

I dont think we have enough water area to maintain a proper tropical type storm but things will get worse for sure.
As the water heats up the energy increases and the storms will become more intense.
We here are all hoping we have enough life left to see the next installment of metamorphosis's, Planet Earth!
We had sun and clear skies today for the first time in about a week, tonight its raining again and more heavy rains forecast for tomorrow.
Joe Public on the banks of the River Ebro are complaining that the flooding is caused by the government not dredging the river bed. Meanwhile the government mouthpieces are saying that if it wasn't for the control dams they would have 3,000 cubic meters a second going down the river not around 2,000 cubic meters as it is at the moment.
You just cant please all of the people, all of the time!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
These storms have been coming more often now...



That pretty much looks better than the one from September!

Quoting Slamguitar:


That pretty much looks better than the one from September!



any one's tropical depiction can be deceiving for this one...
128. etxwx
Well, this is certainly one of the odder news stories that I've ever run across. I guess if ya'll get cold you can try burning cheese. Just watch out for the...errr...."lingering toxic gases" as the news story euphemistically calls them.

Burning Cheese Closes Norwegian Road For Days
by Korva Coleman NPR January 23, 2013

It was probably a first for Norway when a truck trailer full of sweet goat cheese caught fire near the town of Narvik late last week, blocking a road tunnel. it took four days for firefighters to put out the flames. No one was hurt. Norwegian Broadcasting says the tunnel was so badly damaged that geologists are checking it for safety, and any lingering toxic gases.

Norwegian investigators found it wasn't just plain yellow cheese that caught fire - it was the Norwegian brown specialty 'brunost'. British cheesemongers The Cheese and Wine Shop Delicatessen point out most cheese is created from curds with the whey thrown out. In making brunost, which technically isn't cheese, the whey is kept and the curds are disposed of. The cheesemaker then adds milk and cream and boils the brunost until it's a "thick brown mass". The result is a sweet product with a hint of caramel. It's sticky, carmelized lactose - and it's really flammable.

That's just what Norwegian officials found out. The BBC talked to Kjell Bjoern Vinje, who observed, "I didn't know that brown cheese burns so well." The Guardian talked to police officer Viggo Berg, who says "this high concentration of fat and sugar is almost like petrol if it gets hot enough." Whey to go.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im still waiting for ur email...

message me urs cause It won't let me message u
Quoting Slamguitar:


That pretty much looks better than the one from September!


I you had that in the Gulf of Mexico this week a lot of the hibernating, dormant ones on the blog would be waking up prematurely.
Quoting Slamguitar:


That pretty much looks better than the one from September!


Michael was so, so small as a disturbance.

118 PlazaRed: I get the impression that these "mini coldcanes," might just get to be a feature of our winters?

Might get worse. Earlier, someone posted a chart showing that MediCane to be slightly warm-core.
"Now for AnthropogenicGlobalWarming's next trick... TropicalCyclones in the winter Mediterranean"
on with the show
8month-old Tabitha Rose Markle has died 3 days after her family's SUV plunged through the thin ice on a channel that runs under County Road 44 between Priest and Halstead bays of Lake Minnetonka

...Sheriff Rich Stanek said there were indications that the girl's father...had been drinking... The channel where the SUV broke through is notorious for never being totally frozen, according to the...Sheriff's Office.
...and her death has been ruled accidental, according to the...Medical Examiner's Office
Quoting aspectre:
118 PlazaRed: I get the impression that these "mini coldcanes," might just get to be a feature of our winters?

Might get worse. Earlier, someone posted a chart showing that MediCane to be slightly warm-core.
"Now for AnthropogenicGlobalWarming's next trick... TropicalCyclones in the winter Mediterranean"

There was a word that was gob-al-de-gok, for things that were incomprehensible.
If we happened to have a warm core tropical cyclone in the northern Mediterranean in January the end would probably be nearer than nigh!
Then again I'm up for it.
We have another screaming gale forecast for tomorrow and they just found enough bruised and battered pieces in some old shed to mend the church clock but it isnt working yet and they didn't quite get the face on it straight, so 12 and 6 are not totally in line vertically.
Quoting PlazaRed:

There was a word that was gob-al-de-gok, for things that were incomprehensible.
If we happened to have a warm core tropical cyclone in the northern Mediterranean in January the end would probably be nearer than nigh!
Then again I'm up for it.
We have another screaming gale forecast for tomorrow and they just found enough bruised and battered pieces in some old shed to mend the church clock but it isnt working yet and they didn't quite get the face on it straight, so 12 and 6 are not totally in line vertically.


March over there and take a picture and we will have an update.... lol
Quoting etxwx:
Well, this is certainly one of the odder news stories that I've ever run across. I guess if ya'll get cold you can try burning cheese. Just watch out for the...errr...."lingering toxic gases" as the news story euphemistically calls them.

Burning Cheese Closes Norwegian Road For Days
by Korva Coleman NPR January 23, 2013

It was probably a first for Norway when a truck trailer full of sweet goat cheese caught fire near the town of Narvik late last week, blocking a road tunnel. it took four days for firefighters to put out the flames. No one was hurt. Norwegian Broadcasting says the tunnel was so badly damaged that geologists are checking it for safety, and any lingering toxic gases.

Norwegian investigators found it wasn't just plain yellow cheese that caught fire - it was the Norwegian brown specialty 'brunost'. British cheesemongers The Cheese and Wine Shop Delicatessen point out most cheese is created from curds with the whey thrown out. In making brunost, which technically isn't cheese, the whey is kept and the curds are disposed of. The cheesemaker then adds milk and cream and boils the brunost until it's a "thick brown mass". The result is a sweet product with a hint of caramel. It's sticky, carmelized lactose - and it's really flammable.

That's just what Norwegian officials found out. The BBC talked to Kjell Bjoern Vinje, who observed, "I didn't know that brown cheese burns so well." The Guardian talked to police officer Viggo Berg, who says "this high concentration of fat and sugar is almost like petrol if it gets hot enough." Whey to go.
FONDUE!!!
Todays forecast was 81 at KRAL it made it 77

Mean Temperature 65 °F 55 °F
Max Temperature 77 °F 67 °F 88 °F (1948)
Min Temperature 53 °F 44 °F 25 °F (1937)


Now
Overcast
Overcast
Temperature
75 °F
Feels Like 75 °F
Wind(mph)
6

made it to 72.2 at my place......
Quoting Grothar:


really big picture

one can see the warming sw of the tip of SA and again from ne us coast all the way to the arctic greenland shows excessive warmth in its waters

its happening and there for all to see

Quoting PedleyCA:


March over there and take a picture and we will have an update.... lol

Its 1am, black dark, screaming gale, raining and 8/C cold!
I might be up for all sorts of things but climbing onto my roof at this hour, clutching a bulky digital SLR is not high on my priorities. Having said that, first light at about 8am, so on with the wellington boots and crampons. I'll see what I can do.
Its no good trotting over there as I cant see the clock from the ground, its only visible from the roof,as then I am nearly level with it.
74 MrNatural: I never once thought that it would be possible to politicize the following:
- "warming tray"
- "to warm up the car"
- and in the bullpen, "So and so is warming up"


I was gonna warm my coffee... but nuking it might be safer. Anybody know how many bananas to use?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


really big picture

one can see the warming sw of the tip of SA and again from ne us coast all the way to the arctic greenland shows excessive warmth in its waters

its happening and there for all to see



Also very warm off Africa.
Statement as of 3:57 PM CST on January 23, 2013

... A developing winter weather event across middle Tennessee late
Thursday night into Friday with ice accumulations possible...

As a low pressure system moves into middle Tennessee Thursday night
after midnight and moves across the entire mid state during the morning
hours on Friday... moisture will increase across the area... and with
temperatures near the ground expected to remain close to or slightly
below freezing through the nightime hours... a cold rain... freezing rain...
and sleet mixture that will initially develop across areas west of the
Nashville metropolitian area... approaching the Tennessee River valley
region just after midnight... will become a freezing rain and sleet mixture
across locations generally east of Interstate 24 and east of Interstate
65... with some snow mixed in across northern portions of the Cumberland
Plateau region. A change over to all rain is expected for locations
generally west of the Cumberland Plateau region by the mid morning hours as
temperatures climb above freezing. However... for locations across the
Cumberland Plateau region... a freezing rain and/or sleet mix could possibly
continue until early Friday afternoon... as temperatures continue to remain
around the freezing mark... before eventually changing over to all rain
during the mid afternoon hours across this portion of the mid state too.

As a result... ice accumulations may be possible across middle Tennessee
during the early morning hours on Friday... starting across northern portions
of the Tennessee River valley region... and then spreading eastward... potentially
through the early afternoon hours across the Cumberland Plateau region.
Since temperatures have been cold over the recent days... glazing of ice on
roads will be likely... especially across bridges and overpasses. If accumulating
ice occurs... caution will need to be exercised on area roadways across
the mid state and travel avoided if at all possible.

As additional weather forecast information is gathered about this potential
winter weather event... an winter weather watch... advisory... or even warning
may be issued for portions of middle Tennessee later... especially for the
Cumberland Plateau region.

31

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also very warm off Africa.

Makes you wonder what New Zealand did wrong.
Good night from us over here.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Its 1am, black dark, screaming gale, raining and 8/C cold!
I might be up for all sorts of things but climbing onto my roof at this hour, clutching a bulky digital SLR is not high on my priorities. Having said that, first light at about 8am, so on with the wellington boots and crampons. I'll see what I can do.
Its no good trotting over there as I cant see the clock from the ground, its only visible from the roof,as then I am nearly level with it.


Very little information currently available for the mediterranean sea cyclone.

Is this the same system that impacted your area PlazaRed? (Btw, where do you live?)
Darn it...
All i get now is 1/10 inch ice.
near a WSW where they get 1/4 inch ice....lol
It's not fair.

;)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also very warm off Africa.
here is a compare map of jan now and last year



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is a compare map of jan now and last year



A huge difference in one year. Thanks for the graphic... I get this.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Its 1am, black dark, screaming gale, raining and 8/C cold!
I might be up for all sorts of things but climbing onto my roof at this hour, clutching a bulky digital SLR is not high on my priorities. Having said that, first light at about 8am, so on with the wellington boots and crampons. I'll see what I can do.
Its no good trotting over there as I cant see the clock from the ground, its only visible from the roof,as then I am nearly level with it.


Oops, Forgot about the lighting. Well, better wait then. Don't take any risks for our amusement, thanks Red.....
A possibly historic extratropical storm is brewing over the central North Atlantic.
920 mb storm low forecasted Saturday.


http://gcaptain.com/historic-north-atlantic-super storm-remains-likely/
After warming for a few weeks, the Gulf of Guinea has begun a cooling trend once again.

1.3.13



1.21.13

154. beell
Really?
Another Lake Ontario vortex forms. The last one was very apparent off the Mass coast after forming over the lake, I wonder what this one will do?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
After warming for a few weeks, the Gulf of Guinea has begun a cooling trend once again.

1.3.13



1.21.13

Not sure where you are looking because you can't even see the Gulf of Guinea in the images you posted. Temperature anomalies within the Gulf of Guinea have actually risen (based off the same time frame you used). Temps running 1-2C above average. Water off Angola and equatorial South America has cooled, but the armpit of Africa has warmed.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Not sure where you are looking because you can't even see the Gulf of Guinea in the images you posted. Temperature anomalies within the Gulf of Guinea have actually risen (based off the same time frame you used). Temps running 1-2C above average. Water off Angola and equatorial South America has cooled, but the armpit of Africa has warmed.



here is a couple of todays stills
showing the above normal sst temps

world shot

basin shot


159. wxmod
This is a satellite photo of China today. The gray stuff is smog so thick, it's like a volcano erupting. Thick, thick smog covers all of the densely populated lowlands, and a lot of ag land. If you went there for sight seeing, you wouldn't see a thing; maybe not even your hand in front of your face. China is installing lots of solar panels, but, guess what. They will produce NO power in this smog. As their crops fail due to lack of sunshine, they spend their wealth to out compete you for food supplies.

160. etxwx
Photo credit: John Gress /Reuters /Landov January 23, 2013
From NPR - In Chicago, Firefighters Battle Huge Flames In Arctic Cold
Firefighters in Chicago responded to the largest fire in years last night. According to The Chicago Tribune, at one point a third of the city's firefighters were battling the blaze at a vacant warehouse. Luckily no one was hurt, but the arctic temperatures the area is experiencing meant the firefighters faced issues like frozen hydrants. The pictures of the action, however, are made simply stunning because of the ice.
New Tornado Environment Browser just introduced yesterday on the SPC website. Great bookmark to keep.

Link
Quoting TomTaylor:
Not sure where you are looking because you can't even see the Gulf of Guinea in the images you posted. Temperature anomalies within the Gulf of Guinea have actually risen (based off the same time frame you used). Temps running 1-2C above average. Water off Angola and equatorial South America has cooled, but the armpit of Africa has warmed.


Huh, you're the first one I've ever heard that from. Most people refer to the Gulf of Guinea as the whole area between 40-20W and 0N-20N.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY TWO (09F)
12:00 AM FST January 24 2013
======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI ISLAND (Southern Cooks Island)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (975 hPa) located near 13.4S 166.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly goes visible and peripheral surface reports

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
60 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization has improved past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent near low level circulation center. System lies east of an upper short wave trough in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band on visible with 1.1 wrap on LOG10 spiral, yielding DT=4.0 MET=4.0 and PT=4.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it east southeast with slight intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.3S 164.8W - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.0S 163.1W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.8S 160.4W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
164. etxwx
Update on one neighborhood's slow recovery after Sandy:
In Lower Manhattan, Sandy Still Keeping Businesses Dark
by Margot Adler - NPR - January 23, 2013
Excerpt: When compared with its neighbors Coney Island and the Rockaways, Manhattan seemed hardly touched by the waters and winds of Superstorm Sandy in late October. But almost three months later, areas of lower Manhattan are still laboring to recover.

Complete story with audio here.
Interesting system over the Mediterranean Sea:

Quoting TomTaylor:
Not sure where you are looking because you can't even see the Gulf of Guinea in the images you posted. Temperature anomalies within the Gulf of Guinea have actually risen (based off the same time frame you used). Temps running 1-2C above average. Water off Angola and equatorial South America has cooled, but the armpit of Africa has warmed.



maybe this helps


The circulation of Ex-TC Oswald is now over the water NE of Townsville.



Loop

Time to watch for intensification.
Seems that Garry is trying to develop an eye:

Quoting Doppler22:

message me urs cause It won't let me message u


I need ur g-mail...

I sent you one on wu yesterday.ill do it again
It says that you are not accepting mail here anyway...
Ex-TC Oswald:

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
A possibly historic extratropical storm is brewing over the central North Atlantic.
920 mb storm low forecasted Saturday.


http://gcaptain.com/historic-north-atlantic-super storm-remains-likely/

This is quickly going to turn into an exercise in reading isobars.





In fact, the OPC has the beast getting as low as 920 mb, or the strongest thing in the Atlantic since Hurricane Dean!



Of course, it kind of makes sense when you see that its upper level support is the piece of the Polar Vortex currently over Ontario.





The Phase Diagrams show this becoming a very powerful warm seclusion, with the mature low becoming very warm core.





This thing is going to be a blast to watch!
Big 949 mb....
Another view of the storm:

An interesting side note...if the United Kingdom decides to name this low, it will be called Igor.
Today's AM record...

I'm trying to find a recent precedent for the intense low being modeled for Europe. Closest I could find was a storm in November 2011 named Berit, with a pressure of 944.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Today's AM record...

I'm sooo confused... it's a great map, but where is the recard low of 10 degrees?
Totals for the 24hrs to 9am this morning courtesy of the BOM for between Townsville and Mackay, showing some higher falls also with the passage of Ex Cyclone Ozwald moving slowly down the sth east coast with
Giru North (246mms),
Mingela (165mms),
Major Creek (249mms),
Burdekin Dam (72mms),
Bowen (131mms),
Reeves (156mms),
Warden Bend (177mms),
Hamilton Is. (123mms),
Proserpine (151mms),
Proserpine Airport (178mms),
Jochheims TM (222mms),
Sandy Plateau (251mms) &
Mackay (159mms).
Quoting wxgeek723:
I'm trying to find a recent precedent for the intense low being modeled for Europe. Closest I could find was a storm in November 2011 named Berit, with a pressure of 944.


I have some...let me see
Quoting Chapelhill:
I'm sooo confused... it's a great map, but where is the recard low of 10 degrees?


This is my meaning of record besides they one you're thinking about...

a thing constituting a piece of evidence about the past, esp. an account of an act or occurrence kept in writing or some other permanent form:
Quoting Chucktown:
New Tornado Environment Browser just introduced yesterday on the SPC website. Great bookmark to keep.

Link
Thanks. Lots of good number crunched data.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

This is quickly going to turn into an exercise in reading isobars.





In fact, the OPC has the beast getting as low as 920 mb, or the strongest thing in the Atlantic since Hurricane Dean!



Of course, it kind of makes sense when you see that its upper level support is the piece of the Polar Vortex currently over Ontario.





The Phase Diagrams show this becoming a very powerful warm seclusion, with the mature low becoming very warm core.





This thing is going to be a blast to watch!




Unusual low pressure systems like this are always of particular interest to me.
Quoting liquidsquid:
Another Lake Ontario vortex forms. The last one was very apparent off the Mass coast after forming over the lake, I wonder what this one will do?




Interesting, looks like a nice little meso-low. It's rather strange to see meso-lows outside of a dynamic environment. That is pretty weird.
187. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh, you're the first one I've ever heard that from. Most people refer to the Gulf of Guinea as the whole area between 40-20W and 0N-20N.


40-20W and 0N-20N?? Well, You're the first one I've heard that from.

How about a generous 5S-5N/10E-5W?

Gulf of Guinea/Wiki



As far as its significance, a bit of a hint here...

Tropical cyclones don%u2019t develop out of nowhere. A pre-existing disturbance, such as a tropical wave, is needed. Tropical waves are generated by instability resulting from the temperature gradient over western and central North Africa due to extremely warm temperatures over the Sahara Desert in contrast with the much cooler temperatures along the Gulf of Guinea coast...

Max Mayfield's Hurricane Blog-July, 2010
Quoting wxgeek723:
I'm trying to find a recent precedent for the intense low being modeled for Europe. Closest I could find was a storm in November 2011 named Berit, with a pressure of 944.


I have one for 936 mb, just can't find it
Quoting beell:


40-20W and 0N-20N?? Well, You're the first one I've heard that from.

How about a generous 5S-5N/10E-5W?



These highlighted numbers aren't in the right place to be called a gulf.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Interesting, looks like a nice little meso-low. It's rather strange to see meso-lows outside of a dynamic environment. That is pretty weird.


They happen over western Lake Superior occassionally too. I think the narrow topography helps the circular flow, a bit like the BoC can help fire up cyclonic flow more quickly. The most recent one that I found was around December 10, 2012:

"Interestingly...a relatively strong meso-vortice (relatively small area of circulation) formed in the general flow over the tip of Lake Superior, creating an area of heavy snow just along the north shore from Two Harbors to Silver Bay. The snow out of this atmospheric disturbance was falling at one inch per hour at one point."

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dlh/?n=dec_8_to_9_2012_sn ow
Should make a correction...

The low near the southern tip of Greenland currently is not the one expected to become perhaps one of the strongest (if not the strongest on record). Though powerful now, this low is expected to fizzle out gradually according to the models.

The one everybody is interested in traces back to a developing low over Lake Michigan. This is expected to emerge off the NE coast of the USA tomorrow and move northeastward. It should be reaching its peak by Saturday.

Here is the latest GFS representation...though not depicted, GRearth gives a lowest pressure of 918 mb.

Well, Time to Call it a Night - Sleep Well All - Stay Safe - Stay Warm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Should make a correction...

The low near the southern tip of Greenland currently is not the one expected to become perhaps one of the strongest (if not the strongest on record). Though powerful now, this low is expected to fizzle out gradually according to the models.

The one everybody is interested in traces back to a developing low over Lake Michigan. This is expected to emerge off the NE coast of the USA tomorrow and move northeastward. It should be reaching its peak by Saturday.

Here is the latest GFS representation...though not depicted, GRearth gives a lowest pressure of 918 mb.



wow... a complete BEAST!
A couple graphics I put together on snow in SE MI over the next couple days. First, there is the lake effect that is beginning from Lake Huron to occur right now. Some areas closer to the shore could get at or above 8" of snow, warnings and watches are in effect. Second, is a widespread snow event from a clipper system. A general 1-3" of snow is expected on Friday. That forecast is based off of the GFS, NAM, and the ECMWF. Have a great night everyone, 2 finals tomorrow for me.


Tonight into tomorrow:


Friday:
Looks like a beautiful storm in the making.



Unusual Cold in China and Northeast Asia
January 24, 2013


http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id =80235&src=iotdrss

Link
00z GFS shows that my area in Hawaii will receive some heavy rain from the cold front by next Sunday and Monday:

In the South Pacific, Cyclone Garry is continuing to organize as it moves east-southeastward. Recent microwave imagery reveals that the storm has developed a partial eyewall.

The remains of Oswald are continuing to linger over northern Queensland, bringing more rain.

The International Hydrographic Organization defines the southwest extent of the Gulf of Guinea as "A line running [east]Southeastward from 4°22′34″N 7°43′01W″ [4.376111n7.716944w] to 0°38′S 8°42′E [0.633333s8.7e]
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh, you're the first one I've ever heard that from. Most people refer to the Gulf of Guinea as the whole area between 40-20W and 0N-20N.
40-20W??? Who the hell told you that?

You're the only person I've ever heard define it as that region. Officially, the region is defined as the body of water between Cape Palmas, Liberia, and Cape Lopez, Gabon, as aspectre has drawn out here




I've always considered it as the general area of water between the African coastline (from the nations of Cote D'Ivoire to Cameron) and the Equator, as indicated by the red box below




Technically, waters south of the equator will also influence the pattern over the Sahel (where our tropical waves develop). Since the Gulf of Guinea and the waters just south of there are both influential to the conditions over the Sahel, the waters just south of the Gulf of Guinea can still be considered in the general "Gulf of Guinea region". The area you defined (20-40W), however, is far from the Gulf of Guinea and has more of an influence on waves which have already exited the African coast, as opposed to developing waves over the East African highlands and Sahel regions, which the Gulf of Guinea exerts a strong influence on.

Also, in the area you are looking at we would want to see waters anomalously warm, not anomalously cool, as we like to see in the Gulf of Guinea. So the cooling trend you pointed out in your images is not beneficial for tropical development in the mid-Atlantic and Cape Verde region.
Going to sleep to the sound of rain tonight. Forgot how nice that is. First time it has rained here in 17 days.

Good Morning Folks!!..cool here around 52 degrees but not too bad...........well the Blogs Coffee is Perked!!..grab a cup or two and relax..have a Wonderful day everyone!
7-day for the Tampa bay area.................
GFS came true...............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

VAZ037>040-050-051-241400-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130124T1400Z/
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULP EPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTESVILLE...WASHINGTON...CULPEPER
356 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY AND MID
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS...EVEN HIGHWAYS...WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND
SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Morning Mr. Largo, Tom, and everyone else I can't see... :)

Evening Aussie, I hope all is well down under mate.
Good morning, Tom, Largo, ivg, and anyone else up. Evening, Aussie. A nice 56 degrees here this morning, heavy fog and a forecast of 72 later today. It's going to be a beautiful day.

There's waffles, pancakes and french toast with syrup as well as bagals on the sideboard with Largo's coffee. Enjoy.
Good morning. The SPC is continuing to watch for the potential of a significant severe weather event in the early to middle part of next week:



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AROUND TUE/D6 AND POSSIBLY INTO WED/D7.

INSPECTION OF THE ECMWF...GFS...CMC...UKMET AND VARIOUS MREF MEMBERS
REVEALS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH ABOUT
108 HOURS OR VALID MON/D5 AT 12Z. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST FURTHER
OUT...THEY ARE MOSTLY IN RELATION TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
LIKELY SEVERE THREAT.

A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY ON SUN/D4...WITH A SUBTLE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SELY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON/D5. AS SUCH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS FAR
N AS DALLAS.

SINCE THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE IN QUESTION...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TIMING OF THE WRN TROUGH.
VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS SHOW A LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
PLAINS AROUND TUE/D6 AND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH D8.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING A LEADING SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY BY TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE MORE THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...BUT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC AND A FEW MREF
MEMBERS. IN THIS SCENARIO...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FORMS FROM IA
INTO WI...WHICH WOULD EXPAND THE SEVERE THREAT FARTHER NWD ACROSS
IL. EVEN IF THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SITUATION DEVELOPS...SEVERE WOULD
STILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND NERN TX WHERE LARGER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS AREA AND EXPANDED NWD AND EWD SLIGHTLY FOR
TUE/D6.

FOR WED/D7...WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER LAGGING THE MAIN
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...IT DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO EJECT EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOW MS
VALLEY ON WED/D7...THEN CONTINUING TOWARD THE E COAST ON D8. THE
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FOR A MORE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO WED/D7 WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN STATES. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY FOR D7
AND D8 IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 01/24/2013
Morning everyone, 50*F here in Macon, Ga this morning.
No snow around here yet, but there is hope. :)

After you have your coffee, waffles, pancakes, french
toast, and bagels, stop by here for some thick sliced
bacon, sausage patties, country ham, and Apple Fritters.
Gangs all here! G'morn peeps. Time for me to catch up on the blog and get ready for work. I start vacation this weekend. Going to Breck for a week of skiing! Leaving the wife at home to guard the fort. This is a boys trip. 44.8F on da bayou this morn.
Quoting RTLSNK:
Morning everyone, 50*F here in Macon, Ga this morning.
No snow around here yet, but there is hope. :)

After you have your coffee, waffles, pancakes, french
toast, and bagels, stop by here for some thick sliced
bacon, sausage patties, country ham, and Apple Fritters.



yum.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Gangs all here! G'morn peeps. TIme for me to catch up on the blog and get ready for work. I satrt vaction this weekend. Going to Breck for a week of skiing! Leaving the wife at home to gaurd the fort. This is a boys trip. 44.8F on da bayou this morn.


Have a great time! Hope you have wonderful weather while out there.
Have a great time Doug, bring back some pictures brother!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



yum.


I forgot to mention the sausage gravy and homemade bisquits. :)
Everyone have a great Thursday. Aussie, have a great Friday!
Quoting TomTaylor:
So the cooling trend you pointed out in your images is not beneficial for tropical development in the mid-Atlantic and Cape Verde region.

How?
Quoting RTLSNK:


I forgot to mention the sausage gravy and homemade bisquits. :)

Going for the low-calorie stuff today, are we ??

heheheheheh

Good morning, all.
A little drizzle this morning, which is just taunting us.....
Looks to be a Hot one.
Look at the Gulf of Guinea

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, Tom, Largo, ivg, and anyone else up. Evening, Aussie. A nice 56 degrees here this morning, heavy fog and a forecast of 72 later today. It's going to be a beautiful day.

There's waffles, pancakes and french toast with syrup as well as bagals on the sideboard with Largo's coffee. Enjoy.
GOOD MORNING!..LOOKS LIKE THE BLOG has a great breakfast going in here this morning!..great
cool mornings here but the 80's back next week......
looks like she got her snow today................URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-052>054- 501-502-241400-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130124T1400Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-
LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS.. .LEESBURG...
MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
WARRENTON
356 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD
THE END OF THE MORNING RUSH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH BY MID
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS...EVEN HIGHWAYS...WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND
SLIPPERY DURING THE MORNING RUSH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$
Quoting RTLSNK:
Morning everyone, 50*F here in Macon, Ga this morning.
No snow around here yet, but there is hope. :)

After you have your coffee, waffles, pancakes, french
toast, and bagels, stop by here for some thick sliced
bacon, sausage patties, country ham, and Apple Fritters.
kale juice on this end.... Happy Thursday all!
good Foggy morning to ya Texas..............
whew northern Georgia..drive safely ok.........
URGENT WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY!!!
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Look at the Gulf of Guinea

OMG! It's completely flooded!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
437 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

DEZ003-004-MDZ019-020-241500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130124T1500Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...EASTON...
DENTON
437 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...CAROLINE AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MARYLAND AND
SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING
THROUGH ABOUT 800 AM.

* IMPACTS...BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY. ROADS AND WALKWAYS
WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS. THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
GFS at 48 hours another big storm................
looks like friday-saturday is the winter storm story even into the south..................URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY...

.LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
OVERRUNS A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO NEAR FREEZING FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS WILL ALSO BE A
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION EVENT AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY
AROUND 10 AM.
Where is Wash??..a friend of mine posted a pic on her facebook showing snow near DC..enough to make a snowman..
Quoting ncstorm:
Where is Wash??..a friend of mine posted a pic on her facebook showing snow for DC..enough to make a snowman..
yeah and more coming friday and saturday for her..
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013

...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED IN THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD A COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE...WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP
WILL BE WARMING. THIS WILL PRODUCE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORMATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND WILL
GRADUALLY WARM LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHANGE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. HOWEVER, THE PERIOD OF TIME WHEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FREEZING...WILL BE THE TIME WHEN ICE ACCUMULATION
ON TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE LIKELY...AND GLAZING OF ROADS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND...AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE
LARGER ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah and more coming friday and saturday for her..


It looks like my area will be a wait and see scenario..right now it looks like rain once again..
yeah NC, friday and saturday be careful driving might be ice on the roadways..nothing going on by me,getting warmer each day now
Chicago's snow drought of 1" or less may end today. This snow band is orientating rather quickly NE to SW could dump a good 1-3" with some spots near 4".



Some very heavy returns showing up...+ 30 dbz.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Chicago's snow drought of 1" or less may end today. This snow band is orientating rather quickly NE to SW could dump a good 1-3" with some spots near 4".



Some very heavy returns showing up...+ 30 dbz.
nice radar pic there..you folks just might get 3 inches of snow
NYC..........ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY. SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
SHOULD THEN BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
be careful today michigan.............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
630 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE OFF LAKE HURON...

.NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG LAKE EFFECT BANDS ALONG PARTS OF THE THUMB THIS
MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR
WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON.
WEAKER LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL BRING LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL FURTHER
NORTH FROM THAT. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
Quoting Birthmark:

OMG! It's completely flooded!


LMAO
242. VR46L
looks like days and days of Gales for me sigh


Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning Mr. Largo, Tom, and everyone else I can't see... :)

Evening Aussie, I hope all is well down under mate.

Still got flooding a plenty from Ex-TC Oswald up in North and Central Queensland and bushfires down in Victoria. NSW also has bushfires but not as many as we've had some good rains this past week.
I removed close to 5" of snow this morning from my car down here in southern MD. They're calling for another 3"+ between now and Saturday morning.

Yeah!
191. TropicalAnalystwx13
196. 1900hurricane

Terrific graphics - they look like paintings. If the storm develops like this , I vote that we name it Vincent.
Gulf Stream:
I would not be surprise if we lose power here today..the wind is really gusty!

ANZ086-242100-
HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR OUT TO 34N 71W TO 32N 73W.
1000 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...GALE WARNING...

.THIS AFTERNOON...W TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO NW 30
TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E OF 73W TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT BUILDING TO
7 TO 12 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W TO 12 TO 18 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS E. A CHANCE OF RAIN NE PORTION.
.TONIGHT...N TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT EARLY...DIMINISHING TO NE
10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W
8 TO 15 FT LATE...HIGHEST NE.
.FRI...E TO NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...BECOMING S TO SW AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT LATE...HIGHEST W. SEAS BECOMING 5 TO 9
FT THROUGHOUT LATE. RAIN DEVELOPING NW PORTION.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT...THEN BECOMING
W TO NW. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 10 TO 13
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS BECOMING 6 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 10 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST
NE.
.SUN...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT E OF 75W 5 TO 8 FT LATE...
HIGHEST E.
.MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO SW AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 3 TO 5 FT THROUGHOUT.
$$

244. PressureDrop

Cool Icon. Glad I don't have to remove any snow.....
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EXTENDED MODELS
HAVE ADVERTISED QUITE A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE
JET STRUCTURE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD PLACEMENT NEAR THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A GOOD 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/LIFT...AND GOOD VEERING
VERTICAL PROFILES. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY THING HOLDING ME BACK
FROM ADDING IT TO THE HWO IS SHORT TERM WEATHER AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL
OUTCOME
. STAY TUNED.



GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS/STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE THAN
REASONABLE/REGARDLESS OF HOW THE DETAILS UNFOLD. WILL ADD A GENERAL
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT TO THIS MORNINGS HWO FOR THE MID WEEK
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. /BK/

EXTENDED PERIOD...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO THE AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE.
_________________________________________

TEMPS OF 60-70+f RETURN. It's like it's spring already
00Z ECMWF @ 60 hours: who wants to count isobars?



It appears that the lowest closed one for this is 925 mb.
Got quiet there! 45 minutes of nothing! Must be Breakfast time on the East Coast.
The GFS is already showing up to 1500 j/kg CAPE 6 days out.
With a spring like airmass, I think we'll have something somewhere.

The GFS, which has the most dangerous outlook, is the outlier though.
The others still give a severe wx possibility though.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EXTENDED MODELS
HAVE ADVERTISED QUITE A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE
JET STRUCTURE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD PLACEMENT NEAR THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A GOOD 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/LIFT...AND GOOD VEERING
VERTICAL PROFILES. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY THING HOLDING ME BACK
FROM ADDING IT TO THE HWO IS SHORT TERM WEATHER AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL
OUTCOME
. STAY TUNED.



GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS/STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE THAN
REASONABLE/REGARDLESS OF HOW THE DETAILS UNFOLD. WILL ADD A GENERAL
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT TO THIS MORNINGS HWO FOR THE MID WEEK
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. /BK/

EXTENDED PERIOD...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO THE AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE.
_________________________________________

TEMPS OF 60-70 f RETURN. It's like it's spring already

Look at the extreme temperature difference forecasted between Manitoba and Tamaulipas. It could be an over 120*F difference between the two locations!
cool:


Look at houston, SE Missippi, and NE Colorado:


South MS, N AL, and OK/TX:


Central Ga has a lot or right moving supercells that just don't produce many tornadoes. The Carolinas are have many right moving supercells as well, but tornado alley is the true hotspot on this map:
If nothing changes, it's looking like Tuesday will already be at least a moderate risk day. The setup looks favorable for a decent tornado outbreak across Arkansas mainly. Still a lot of time for things to change.
Apparently my phone wanted to let you know what I said twice.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
cool:


Look at houston, SE Missippi, and NE Colorado:


South MS, N AL, and OK/TX:


Central Ga has a lot or right moving supercells.
They just dont produce tornadoes. Carolina's are full of supercells too, but tornado alley is the true hotspot on this map:





Awesome Post, GA Stormz!! Needed a break from Ricky's.

:)




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
256 If nothing changes, it's looking like Tuesday will already be at least a moderate risk day. The setup looks favorable for a decent tornado outbreak across Arkansas mainly. Still a lot of time for things to change.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
257 If nothing changes, it's looking like Tuesday will already be at least a moderate risk day. The setup looks favorable for a decent tornado outbreak across Arkansas mainly. Still a lot of time for things to change.


Say it one more time. :P
Quoting TomballTXPride:





Awesome Post, GA Stormz!! Needed a break from Ricky's.

:)






If you need a break, just don't go there.
You went there in the first place.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE EXTENDED MODELS
HAVE ADVERTISED QUITE A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE SEVERAL THINGS GOING FOR IT IN REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE
JET STRUCTURE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD PLACEMENT NEAR THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A GOOD 48 HOURS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE/LIFT...AND GOOD VEERING
VERTICAL PROFILES. AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY THING HOLDING ME BACK
FROM ADDING IT TO THE HWO IS SHORT TERM WEATHER AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE OVERALL
OUTCOME
. STAY TUNED.



GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS/STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MORE THAN
REASONABLE/REGARDLESS OF HOW THE DETAILS UNFOLD. WILL ADD A GENERAL
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT TO THIS MORNINGS HWO FOR THE MID WEEK
TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. /BK/

EXTENDED PERIOD...A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO THE AREA...WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE.
_________________________________________

TEMPS OF 60-70+f RETURN. It's like it's spring already
GFS does not have this system going negative, but that does not mean it will not happen..
Good morning everyone!

After days upon days of straight lake-effect snow and clouds I finally woke up to a crisp, sunny day in the mitten.

Have a fantastic Thursday everybody!
263. wxmod
More rain for the bone dry south west; due to the jet stream diving south a thousand miles from it's classic position then snapping due north.



Barely sprinkling here.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 38 sec ago
Overcast
54 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 50 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.14 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 5.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Overcast 3700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

Another very cold morning with subzero wind chills
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Say it one more time. :P


He wanted attention...lol


Next one is Khan... maybe for this Friday's storm
268. wxmod
Quoting Skyepony:
NASA did a write up on the Ship Trails event in the NE Pacific last week.

I wunder how it's affecting the PDO..


As always, NASA is not telling us why ship tracks only happen near the US coast in the Pacific Ocean. It seems noone wants to research the issue. (why? because they are wx mod for the benefit of south west desert water users)
Quoting JNCali:
kale juice on this end.... Happy Thursday all!


payday for me and many !!!!!
This shows the next storm with the severe weather potential off the Southern California coast..There will be a lot of energy thrown around by this one.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST THU JAN 24 2013

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AROUND TUE/D6 AND POSSIBLY INTO WED/D7.

INSPECTION OF THE ECMWF...GFS...CMC...UKMET AND VARIOUS MREF MEMBERS
REVEALS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH ABOUT
108 HOURS OR VALID MON/D5 AT 12Z. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST FURTHER
OUT...THEY ARE MOSTLY IN RELATION TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
LIKELY SEVERE THREAT.

A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY ON SUN/D4...WITH A SUBTLE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SELY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON/D5. AS SUCH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS FAR
N AS DALLAS.

SINCE THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE IN QUESTION...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TIMING OF THE WRN TROUGH.
VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS SHOW A LARGE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
PLAINS AROUND TUE/D6 AND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH D8.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING A LEADING SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY BY TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THIS FEATURE MORE THAN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...BUT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CMC AND A FEW MREF
MEMBERS. IN THIS SCENARIO...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW FORMS FROM IA
INTO WI...WHICH WOULD EXPAND THE SEVERE THREAT FARTHER NWD ACROSS
IL. EVEN IF THE LESS AMPLIFIED GFS SITUATION DEVELOPS...SEVERE WOULD
STILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND NERN TX WHERE LARGER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS AREA AND EXPANDED NWD AND EWD SLIGHTLY FOR
TUE/D6.

FOR WED/D7...WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER LAGGING THE MAIN
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...IT DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO EJECT EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOW MS
VALLEY ON WED/D7...THEN CONTINUING TOWARD THE E COAST ON D8. THE
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE FOR A MORE MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO WED/D7 WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN STATES. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY FOR D7
AND D8 IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 01/24/2013
52°F

11°C

Humidity95%
Wind SpeedNA
Barometer30.14 in
Dewpoint51°F (11°C)
VisibilityNA

Last Update on 24 Jan 6:49 am PST

Current conditions at

Jurupa Valley (SDJUR)

Lat: 33.987 Lon: -117.425 Elev: 795ft.

This station is up the Hill from me about a mile.
Mid TN advisories.
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 33 min 8 sec ago
Clear
-5 °F
Clear
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: -9 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.67 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Pollen: .10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1621 ft

Well, at least there is no wind!!!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
CAPE soundings from the 06z show at least 1000 kJ CAPE for Arkansas on Tuesday. This could be quite a severe day!
Quoting 47n91w:


They happen over western Lake Superior occassionally too. I think the narrow topography helps the circular flow, a bit like the BoC can help fire up cyclonic flow more quickly. The most recent one that I found was around December 10, 2012:

"Interestingly...a relatively strong meso-vortice (relatively small area of circulation) formed in the general flow over the tip of Lake Superior, creating an area of heavy snow just along the north shore from Two Harbors to Silver Bay. The snow out of this atmospheric disturbance was falling at one inch per hour at one point."

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dlh/?n=dec_8_to_9_2012_sn ow



Interesting. I've always been fascinated by local/mesoscale weather events that often go unnoticed by computer models and large scale analysis of a region. I'm not from the Great Lakes region so I don't know much about meso lows over the great lakes. I frequently study local mesoscale influences here in Florida though.