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Major cold blast, epic lake effect snows hit North America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:36 PM GMT on January 22, 2013

A classic January North American cold wave has plunged much of the continent into the deep freeze and brought epic lake effect snows to the shores of the Great Lakes. The intense cold was centered over central Ontario this Tuesday morning, where a remarkable low temperature of -49°F (-45.0°C) was observed at Lansdowne House, Ontario. This was the coldest temperature measured at a major observing station in all of North America today. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Tuesday morning in eleven states east of the Rockies. The coldest air was centered over Northern Minnesota, where the temperature plummeted to -35°F (-37°C) at Crane Lake at 7 am CST, with calm winds. The coldest wind chills were observed in Southern Manitoba, Northern Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula, where the clockwise flow of air around a high pressure system centered over Iowa brought bitter cold winds. The wind chill at Ironwood, Michigan hit -42°F at 7 am this morning, thanks to a temperature of -17°F combined with a wind of 17 mph. The wind chill hit -40° F (-40°C) at Rhinelander, Wisconsin.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from 10:45 am EST January 22, 2013 shows multiple bands of lake effect snow streaming off of Lake Erie (lower left), and one very concentrated band of snow affecting the east shore of Lake Ontario over Oswego, New York (center right of image.) Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Radar image of the band of very heavy lake effect snow affecting Oswego, NY (circle with a "+" symbol in it) at 11:08 EST January 22, 2013. The echo intensity of 25 dBZ (light blue colors) is very intense for a snow storm, and snowfall rates of up to 5" per hour may be occurring in this band.

The frigid Arctic air blasting over the unusually warm Great Lakes have created very heavy lake effect snows, and snowfall amounts in excess of a foot have hit the snow belts in the lee of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. The heaviest snows on Tuesday morning were falling along the eastern shore of Lake Ontario in New York, where the National Weather Service is warning that snowfall amounts of 2 - 4" per hour, possibly up to 5" per hour, will occur today. More than a foot of snow is also expected in along the shores of Lake Superior near Munising over the next day. As of 7 am EST Tuesday, here were the top snow amounts so far from this epic lake effect snow event:

18" Ripley, NY
13" Perrysburg, NY
12.7" Lacona, NY
12" Sinclairville, NY
12" Collins, NY

17" Fairview, PA
15" Colt Station, PA
14" Erie, PA (6 miles SW)
13" Girard, PA
12" Millcreek TWP, PA

13" Geauga, OH
13" Montville, OH
12" Thompson, OH
12" Montville, OH

Snow in southern Ohio on Monday created whiteout conditions near Cincinnati, causing a 79-car pile-up on I-275, and a 50-car pile-up on I-75. The CIMSS Satellite Blog shows the conditions during the event nicely.

Although the current Arctic air outbreak is severe, it has broken very few records. Only 11 daily minimum low temperature records were tied or broken in the U.S. on Monday; none of these records were set at stations east of the Rockies. In fact, there were more daily high temperature records set in the U.S. yesterday--fifteen in all, including new high temperature records at Los Angeles, Burbank, and Shasta in California.

Jeff Masters
Deep Freeze
Deep Freeze
River flowing
River flowing
Still flowing even at -5 degrees. "I wish I could have focused my attention on getting better photos than trying to keep my nose from freezing off."
Ice shove's
Ice shove's
Ice shove's out on the bay, not what the ice Fishermen likes to see, the icy build up Makes it very hard to get there ice shanties out to where the fish are.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hi, thank you Doc
Thank you, Dr. Masters
Thanks doc..
Thanks Dr Master's
even up in NYS..wow..................URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
849 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

NYZ045-046-057-062-231400-
/O.CON.KBGM.WC.Y.0001.130123T0500Z-130123T1500Z/
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORWICH...ONEONTA...COOPERSTOWN...
WALTON...DELHI...MONTICELLO
849 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN CATSKILLS AND UPPER SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

* HAZARDS...COLD WIND CHILL VALUES LATE TONIGHT.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...BETWEEN 15 AND 20 BELOW.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TIMING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO 15 -DEGREES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND ZERO.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA FROM PROLONGED
EXPOSURE TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN. THE
WIND CHILL IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE FROSTBITE IN
ABOUT 30 MINUTES OR LESS...AND COULD LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT ALL
EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED.

&&
Lets see if the old saying proves true this year...a very cold winter..is always followed by an extremely HOT summer...it certainly IS..a very cold winter and the worst may yet to come with FEB huh
JUST TAKE A LOOK A THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THIS SAT PIC....WOW!!!

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Thanks Dr Master's

Guess this will finally quiet the crowds who constantly question why the Doc doesn't post about cold waves and only focuses on heat, huh Georgia?
GFS..snow from chicago to boston..............
Georgia is cold also.............................
11 vs 15 broken or tied records..that leaves a difference of 4..not that wide of a margin and high temperatures in California is not that unheard of..

Only 11 daily minimum low temperature records were tied or broken in the U.S. on Monday; none of these records were set at stations east of the Rockies. In fact, there were more daily high temperature records set in the U.S. yesterday--fifteen in all, including new high temperature records at Los Angeles, Burbank, and Shasta in California.
Thanks,Dr. Masters, As January cold goes,its kind of expected for the coldest part of the winter.After such a warm winter last year,it probably seems extreme.Then again when it drops to -59 windchill even in Canada,can't get much more extreme than that.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Guess this will finally quiet the crowds who constantly question why the Doc doesn't post about cold waves and only focuses on heat, huh Georgia?


I don't really care lol.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

PAZ007>009-222300-
/O.CON.KPBZ.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-130123T1600Z/
/O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-130123T1100Z/
MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...
GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...
TIONESTA
952 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO LOCALLY 7 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ADVISED COUNTIES.

* TIMING...A BAND OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MERCER...VENANGO...AND FOREST
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGITS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

* MAIN IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT
TIMES. FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE POSSIBLE IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT SNOWFALL WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS
PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WIND
WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL INDICES. IF YOU MUST VENTURE
OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU DRESS PROPERLY.

&&
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I don't really care lol.



he still downplay the event..even though his first line included "epic lake snows"

Although the current Arctic air outbreak is severe, it has broken very few records.
Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters... So glad I am here in south Florida...
Looks like nice lake effects!

Here is a clip of the blizzard of '66, when a prolonged lake effect outburst dumped some 100 inches of snow in some areas of Oswego County.
Link
I see Nea is responding in the other blog as usual after everyone has left so I will make my exit as I dont want to be sarcastic to death..

Have a good day and will see yall later..
Quoting LargoFl:
Lets see if the old saying proves true this year...a very cold winter..is always followed by an extremely HOT summer...it certainly IS..a very cold winter and the worst may yet to come with FEB huh


Yep, that's what happened two years ago down here in TX. The winter of 2010/11 was crazy cold with more snow than I have seen since moving here in 1982. (The outside faucets froze with the covers on them. Now I just leave them dripping on cold nights, works better.)

Then the summer of 2011, set the record for most consecutive days of 100+.

I have not checked to see how many records were set, but it was just the oddity of record heat following unusual cold.
thanks for the update doc

theres alot more epic weather yet to come
Quoting ncstorm:



he still downplay the event..even though his first line included "epic lake snows"

Although the current Arctic air outbreak is severe, it has broken very few records.


It's the truth.
It's not downplaying it if it hasn't broken records
I really don't care for this argument.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It's the truth.
It's not downplaying it if it hasn't broken records
I really don't care for this argument.


Then don't comment on it.
It's supposed to get really cold here in Central NC... brrr.

59 °F
Clear
Humidity: 21%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 30.09 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Pollen: 8.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:
------------------------------------------------- --------------
10 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: -2 °F
Humidity: 73%
Dew Point: 3 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the North
Pressure: 30.11 in (Rising)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1900 ft
Overcast 2600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 253 ft
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:08 PM EST Tuesday 22 January 2013
Condition: Light Snowshower
Pressure: 30.1 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 1 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 7.0°F
Dewpoint: 3.2°F
Humidity: 84 %
Wind: NNE 10 mph
Wind Chill: -8
close but no cigar lol..keep that up NORTH LOL......
Thanks for the new blog Doc. I'll stay in South Florida, thank you very much! Spent years in Wisconsin and delt with -20° often enough to realize I don't want to experience that anymore
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR NORTH CAROLINA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
949 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

NCZ021-222115-
FORSYTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM
949 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

.REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 19. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.

$$
Cam in Camden NY

Link

It is interesting to switch through various cams in the upstate NY area and see how close blizzardish conditions are to areas of broken sunshine.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
438 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN LEVY COUNTY TONIGHT...

.COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT.

FLZ039-222200-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FZ.A.0001.130123T0900Z-130123T1300Z/
LEVY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND
438 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...30 TO 32 DEGREES FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS. PLAN TO
COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A WIDESPREAD AND
DAMAGING FREEZE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. DURING THE FREEZE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR MORE THAN
2 HOURS.

&&

$$
Buffalo NY winter 1977..can we repeat this??.......
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
JUST TAKE A LOOK A THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THIS SAT PIC....WOW!!!



What's even cooler is the Meso Vortex that was over Lake Ontario yesterday can be seen off the coast of Mass today! Check out the swirl, I wonder what will become of it?
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting LargoFl:
Buffalo NY winter 1977..can we repeat this??.......


Please God no. I have a 1200' driveway on a hill, and this may produce a bit of a struggle. I remember these years as a kid being able to create tunnels and forts under the snow without needing to shovel piles up. Of course when you are only 4' tall, it seems even more incredible.
Quoting liquidsquid:


Please God no. I have a 1200' driveway on a hill, and this may produce a bit of a struggle. I remember these years as a kid being able to create tunnels and forts under the snow without needing to shovel piles up. Of course when you are only 4' tall, it seems even more incredible.
Oh yeah..what a flash back in time..SNOW FORTS!!!!..yes i remember those days too
The Tornado that CHANGED tornado science........Link
Bright sunshine and 0 degrees F (-16 degrees C) here in rural southern Ontario, with almost no wind. The man who shovels our snow came back yesterday from the DR. When he walked through the doors at the Toronto airport at 11:00 last night, he had trouble getting a breath in the bitter cold.
Quoting liquidsquid:


What's even cooler is the Meso Vortex that was over Lake Ontario yesterday can be seen off the coast of Mass today! Check out the swirl, I wonder what will become of it?


I don't know where it will end up, I just hope it doesn't end up in Ireland. I have a friend who's been having a nasty streak of weather recently.
Thanks Doc.
Quoting liquidsquid:


Please God no. I have a 1200' driveway on a hill, and this may produce a bit of a struggle. I remember these years as a kid being able to create tunnels and forts under the snow without needing to shovel piles up. Of course when you are only 4' tall, it seems even more incredible.


and when it collapses on you?
now this is new

hey guys there seem too be some power plant effect snows going on in IL this AM


Link

Quoting LargoFl:
Oh yeah..what a flash back in time..SNOW FORTS!!!!..yes i remember those days too


lol i'm sure a snowfort is cool.
Thanks Doc.Yep I'am defentally feeling the cold.Ncstorm come back on.Nea won't be around if I am.
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 20 min 3 sec ago
Clear
68 °F
Clear
Humidity: 15%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.10 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 8.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

63.9 here....
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:10 PM EST Tuesday 22 January 2013
Condition: Snowshower
Pressure: 30.1 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 0.5 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 6.8°F
Dewpoint: 3.0°F
Humidity: 82 %
Wind: N 8 mph
Wind Chill: -6


forecasted high today 14 f don't think it will make it
Forecast low of -26 C (-14.8 F) expected tonight here in Montreal, Quebec. Since the turn of the century, i.e., January 1, 2000, we have only gone below that mark 9 times (including 5 times from January 2003 to January 2004).

What about below -30 C (-22 F)? The last time that occured was about 19 years ago in January 1994--three times!

From September 1941--the month record-keeping began--to the end of winter 1993-1994, the average number of nights with lows below -30 C was 0.6/winter or a little over once every 2 winters.

I don't think I need to say what is the average since then...

Quoting Tazmanian:
now this is new

hey guys there seem too be some power plant effect snows going on in IL this AM


Link



Awesome, thanks Taz.
Afternoon everyone! :-) Just thought you might want to check this out and comment on it. Thanks!
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/WunderGirl12/com ment.html?entrynum=2#commenttop

WunderGirl12
12z GFS snowfall for this weekend




Good one from Smithsonian on the polar vortex split, sudden stratospheric warming event....

Linky
Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS snowfall for this weekend




Now I can either take this as a sign that the GFS is loving me or hating me
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now I can either take this as a sign that the GFS is loving me or hating me


I think its looking favorable for you Washi115. I know models are jumping around on snowfall amounts and the axis, but I believe those will be ironed out over the next two model runs. I have a real hard time seeing you being warm enough for rain. This storm track is taking the exact track you need it to. The cold air is already in place, so I dont think we will see much of shift in track. Now its a question of how well phased and how much moisture will present. System will only grow stronger as it exits the coast. Probably looking at a solid 3-6" over most of the Delmarva and maybe even some 5-10" in the heavier axis. JMO though.
19 inches of snow, so far, in Pulaski, NY.

"... Oswego County...
Pulaski 19.0 900 am 1/22 trained spotter
9 E Lacona 13.0 900 am 1/22 cocorahs
4 SSE Lacona 12.7 700 am 1/22 cocorahs
Sandy Creek 8.7 700 am 1/22 co-op observer
se Minetto 7.4 800 am 1/22 cocorahs
5 ESE Oswego 5.6 600 am 1/22 cocorahs
2 SSE Palermo 4.4 600 am 1/22 co-op observer
W Fulton 3.0 800 am 1/22 cocorahs "
Quoting Tazmanian:
now this is new

hey guys there seem too be some power plant effect snows going on in IL this AM


Link



Awesome find Taz. I have personally experienced this. Even here in Decatur Illinois I've watched moisture condensate from the bigger exhaust stacks of the industries here in town when it gets really cold you can get flurries directly under the plume path. It's pretty neat. Would not eat the snow though. belch...
hey guys..just heard on the news..in OHIO..an 86 car crash..near cleveland if i remember right..folks remember up there..the road surface looks clear..it isnt..at those temps your riding on an icy surface, hit that brake and BOOM
Massive 86-car pileup in Ohio leaves 12-year-old girl dead, at least 20 others injured


Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/massive-8 6-car-pileup-ohio-leaves-12-year-old-girl-dead-20- injured-article-1.1244756#ixzz2IjTWbOfq
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
108 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.THE CALM CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL COUPLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
MARGINAL FREEZE IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS IN THE WARNING AREA. FAVORED SPOTS
FOR FREEZE EVENTS WOULD BE IN RURAL OR SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

FLZ013>016-026-027-231400-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.W.0002.130123T0800Z-130123T1400Z/
CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...
WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...SWEETWATER ...CRAWFORDVILLE
108 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013 /1208 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2013/

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM CST/ TO 9 AM EST
/8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE: LOWS OF 29 TO 32 DEGREES.

* DURATION: AROUND 2 HOURS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

08-LAMERS
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF: 926 mb -- warm-seclusion extratropical cyclone over North Atlantic in 96-hours. Top-5 since 1979 in N. ATL http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/293792391398297 600/photo/1

8 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 12z weekend Nor'easter further offshore, less coastal impacts than previous 00z run. Deepens to 964 mb at 5-days http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/293791881400311 808/photo/1
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 9 min 52 sec ago
Clear
75F
Clear
Humidity: 7%
Dew Point: 6F
Wind: 4 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 30.08 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 8.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

69.5 here in Jurupa Valley, CA
2 miles North of KRAL
ah they changed my 7-day..warmer now.................
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I think its looking favorable for you Washi115. I know models are jumping around on snowfall amounts and the axis, but I believe those will be ironed out over the next two model runs. I have a real hard time seeing you being warm enough for rain. This storm track is taking the exact track you need it to. The cold air is already in place, so I dont think we will see much of shift in track. Now its a question of how well phased and how much moisture will present. System will only grow stronger as it exits the coast. Probably looking at a solid 3-6" over most of the Delmarva and maybe even some 5-10" in the heavier axis. JMO though.
Well CWG who did very well with the bust storm said it could be our 1st one inch snowfall in a long time.I hope they're right...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well CWG who did very well with the bust storm said it could be our 1st one inch snowfall in a long time.Inhope they're right...
....you may get your wish Friday it seems...............A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE MID- ATLANTIC
FRIDAY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA.
Quoting ARiot:
Good one from Smithsonian on the polar vortex split, sudden stratospheric warming event....

Linky


This is very good, I wish I could have read this yesterday before I tried to explain the polar vortex and what it means to our weather last night and probably didn't do it well.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Awesome, thanks Taz.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Awesome find Taz. I have personally experienced this. Even here in Decatur Illinois I've watched moisture condensate from the bigger exhaust stacks of the industries here in town when it gets really cold you can get flurries directly under the plume path. It's pretty neat. Would eat the snow though. belch...



thanks guys
Quoting LargoFl:
....you may get your wish Friday it seems...............A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE MID- ATLANTIC
FRIDAY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA.
This time the highs will be in the upper 20's and low 30's.
seems GFS is on the ball with snow for the mid-lantic..
Quoting washingtonian115:
This time the highs will be in the upper 20's and low 30's.
..yes it sure will be cold enough, hope it dont get too bad up there, my wife goes to bethesda tonight for a week..she hasnt seen snow in many years
Quoting LargoFl:
ah they changed my 7-day..warmer now.................
Yes!
winds gusting along the east coast now............
Friday is your snow day northeast and midlantic states..NYC has a 70% chance of snow
Quoting ARiot:
Good one from Smithsonian on the polar vortex split, sudden stratospheric warming event....

Linky
Climate Central has a great piece on SSW and the effect on the current U.S. cold snap, along with its possible implications for the remainder of the winter:

Stratospheric Phenomenon Is Bringing Frigid Cold to U.S

"An unusual event playing out high in the atmosphere above the Arctic Circle is setting the stage for what could be weeks upon weeks of frigid cold across wide swaths of the U.S., having already helped to bring cold and snowy weather to parts of Europe.

While the physics behind sudden stratospheric warming events are complicated, their implications are not: such events are often harbingers of colder weather in North America and Eurasia. The ongoing event favors colder and possibly stormier weather for as long as four to eight weeks after the event, meaning that after a mild start to the winter, the rest of this month and February could bring the coldest weather of the winter season to parts of the U.S., along with a heightened chance of snow.

Sudden stratospheric warming events take place in about half of all Northern Hemisphere winters, and they have been occurring with increasing frequency during the past decade, possibly related to the loss of Arctic sea ice due to global warming. Arctic sea ice declined to its smallest extent on record in September 2012."


Source
CPC released it's ENSO weekly update today. See the details at my ENSO blog.

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
Climate Central has a great piece on SSW and the effect on the current U.S. cold snap, along with its possible implications for the remainder of the winter:

Stratospheric Phenomenon Is Bringing Frigid Cold to U.S

"An unusual event playing out high in the atmosphere above the Arctic Circle is setting the stage for what could be weeks upon weeks of frigid cold across wide swaths of the U.S., having already helped to bring cold and snowy weather to parts of Europe.

While the physics behind sudden stratospheric warming events are complicated, their implications are not: such events are often harbingers of colder weather in North America and Eurasia. The ongoing event favors colder and possibly stormier weather for as long as four to eight weeks after the event, meaning that after a mild start to the winter, the rest of this month and February could bring the coldest weather of the winter season to parts of the U.S., along with a heightened chance of snow.

Sudden stratospheric warming events take place in about half of all Northern Hemisphere winters, and they have been occurring with increasing frequency during the past decade, possibly related to the loss of Arctic sea ice due to global warming. Arctic sea ice declined to its smallest extent on record in September 2012."


Source


Whoa, there. Is climate central peer-reviewed?

Ya just might wanna check your sources Nea.....


Boston area...........The National Weather Service says the area could see a significant snowstorm Friday night into Saturday, but a snowfall amount hasn’t been forecast.

Read more: http://www.patriotledger.com/topstories/x150380440 9/Not-much-snow-falls-on-South-Shore-but-Friday-ni ght-storm-brewing#ixzz2IjbnfKor
thoughts on the D.C snow on friday...........A more significant storm may impact the area during the day on Friday.

Next chance of accumulating snow (of at least 1 inch): Friday

Chance of accumulating snow (of at least 1 inch): 50 percent

This second storm has more snow potential than last week’s non-storm for two main reasons: 1) most importantly, temperatures will be cold enough that any snow that falls will stick. 2) D.C. appears to be be more firmly in the precipitation shield so we won’t have to worry so much about the storm missing us completely.

However, there are considerable differences in model simulations of how much precipitation the storm will generate and there is a chance D.C. ends up in a snow hole, with more precipitation falling to our east and west. Whatever snow falls, we are confident will stick due to freezing temperatures ahead of the storm.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Whoa, there. Is climate central peer-reviewed?

Ya just might wanna check your sources Nea.....


seems to be doing alot of ‎SQUAWKING today why is that
wow..look at that storm a week and a half from now....
Update on computer virus situation. I got my computer back from the computer shop today. The Trojans have been removed, and it seemed to be working okay. The guy at the computer shop didn't restore it to factory settings. Then I noticed I still had some keyboard issues, so I replaced my wireless keyboard with an old, wired one and everything seemed fine.

I did some googling and found that there were some rare viruses that affected the keyboard, although the keyboard itself can't be infected. I posted a few comments on Telegraph articles without a problem. I then attempted to post on an article by Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, which was sceptical about climate change. This is a new article, which I hadn't posted on.

As soon as I pressed the first letter, there was a loud whining noise and the '#' symbol ran riot, filling up the comments box. This is what happened when my computer became infected on Thursday. This was half an hour ago, and so far, I haven't noticed any other problems. But the previous problems, where the Internet Explorer and Chrome disappeared first, took hours to get really bad.

Something very, very sinister is going on here. The problem first started after I posted a cut & paste on the Telegraph site from a comment on Ricky Rood's blog which explained how there's a climate change denial industry, with people being employed to post denial comments on multiple websites.

It's obvious to me that my computer was deliberately infected by those behind the denier industry. Sounds paranoid, I know, but it's the only explanation. No idea if I'm going to get more problems, but I wouldn't be surprised.

I'm going to write a letter to the editor of The Telegraph, telling him what's going on. I doubt if he'll be persuaded, though, given how fantastical it all sounds.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Whoa, there. Is climate central peer-reviewed?

Ya just might wanna check your sources Nea.....




Why yes, it is peer reviewed... Link

washington d.c area.................FriJan 25


29°

21°

Snow

Potential for significant snow accumulation

Chance of snow:80%Wind: SSE at 9 mph
NWS Raleigh discussion...

...THE CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WILL TAKE TIME TO IRON OUT...BUT THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL GIVEN THE TRENDS TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK... MILLER B TYPE LOW... AND AN ANTECEDENT VERY COLD DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE "BEFORE" THE PRECIPITATING DEVELOPS.

GIVEN THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND THE MILLER B STORM TRACK (OVER SC AND FAR EASTERN NC)... PARTIALS SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION MID DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. QPF POTENTIAL SUGGESTS HIGH END ADVISORY INTO LOW END WINTER STORM CONDITIONS. WE WILL NOT GO THAT FAR GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT.

GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND FORECASTERS... WE WILL ONLY TREND TOWARD THE "POTENTIAL" FOR A WINTER STORM... BUT HIGHLIGHT THE COLDER CAD CONDITIONS AS LIKELY FOR LATE WEEK.
I miss tracking supercells on my radar....
Did you ever install a decent anti-virus package like Avast or AVG. You need something better than what you had. I would stay off that website as it maybe infected.
Buffalo NY snow pic..dogs Love the snow...............
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Whoa, there. Is climate central peer-reviewed?

Ya just might wanna check your sources Nea.....



Should the Arctic continue to warm anomalously, and anomalously faster than other regions of the world, it would favor warmer temperatures and more blocking in the Arctic region throughout the vertical column of the atmosphere (troposphere and stratosphere, not sure about further up). This is common sense, there really is no need for a peer reviewed paper here.
So a link to Smithsonean posted above and its link to MIT research saying that Sudden Stratospheric Warming "strongly modulates the warming trend" of this much discussed Climate Change Thesis gives me some hope science and research has not become res judicada.

I'll repost it for the fans of "balanced approach" weather related news. Link


Fair

75°F

24°C

Humidity7%
Wind SpeedENE 3 MPH
Barometer30.11 in (1018.4 mb)
Dewpoint6°F (-14°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 22 Jan 10:53 am PST

Current conditions at

Riverside, Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)

Lat: 33.95139 Lon: -117.45056 Elev: 814ft.

72.5 here Forecast 80°
that 86 vehicle pile up in Ohio...geez............
the 12z CMC is much further north with snowfall

Quoting washingtonian115:
Now I can either take this as a sign that the GFS is loving me or hating me


lets err on the side of optimism and hopefully you can make a snowman..
the 12z Euro -Saturday



Potent storm in the North Atlantic
by thursday they should have an accurate prediction on snowfall and where..major models differ right now..either way you know its cold enough, now we wait.
and finally the 12z Nam

looks like the 12GFS might be the outlier with a more southern track??

GFS at 84 hours..snow..........
NAM at 78 hours..................
Quoting LargoFl:
NAM at 78 hours..................

What are you thinking precipitation wise for Extreme South Central PA? (not in the mountains)
Quoting Doppler22:

What are you thinking precipitation wise for Extreme South Central PA? (not in the mountains)
just looked at a Philly forcast for friday..70% chance of a snowstorm
Quoting LargoFl:
just looked at a Philly forcast for friday..70% chance of a snowstorm

I know that, but how much snow do you think I may manage to get...
StL getting precise with their dew pts today, was laughing this a.m. when they had -0.94, just checked again and 8.96! Temp 17, my local has dew pt at 2, 10 wc. Still have that freezing rain in Thurs. night forecast, hope they're wrong or it's extremely light.
Quoting Doppler22:

I know that, but how much snow do you think I may manage to get...


25°

15°

Snow Shower

Chance of snow:50%Wind: E at 7 mph
Quoting ncstorm:


lets err on the side of optimism and hopefully you can make a snowman..


It has probably been so long that I thought washy might need a refresher course.

How to build a snowman
111. ARiot
I think it is too early to tell for sure if early and frequent sudden stratospheric warming events that split the vortex are linked directly to AGW. It will be difficult to sort out the natural from the human influenced.
CARIBOY, I know you dont like it a bit but the dry season is now starting to take shape in the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PERSISTS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY AS
LEAST THROUGH 230 PM AST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNCHANGED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN
FEATURE WHICH DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY STABLE...AND DRY...WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.2 INCHES OR
LESS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ARE NOT
EXPECTED. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...MAINLY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AS NO OTHER WEATHER FEATURE ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT SW PUERTO RICO BTWN
22/18-2302Z WHEN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS DUE
TO CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LLVL WINDS ENE 5-15 KTS UP TO 6 KFT AND
20-25 KT UP TO 10 KFT AND 10-15 KTS 10-20 KFT. MAX WIND WEST NR 55
KT AT 42 KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 72 82 / 30 20 10 10
STT 75 86 75 85 / 30 20 20 20
Just checked the alert on WU for StL, seems they had a band of snow come through, approx 1/2" accumulation. We're cloudy, but no snow. Radar showed a pretty narrow band.
I am feeling guilty for complaining about it only being 22 degrees this morning.. could have been so much worse...

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


It has probably been so long that I thought washy might need a refresher course.

How to build a snowman


LOL!!..
This is interesting..
Quoting ARiot:
I think it is too early to tell for sure if early and frequent sudden stratospheric warming events that split the vortex are linked directly to AGW. It will be difficult to sort out the natural from the human influenced.
Probably. But there does appear to be an increase in the frequency and strength of such events, which is completely in line with climate projections. So, as with so many other things related to our rapidly-changing climate, while it would be premature to state unequivocally that there is definitely a direct link between the two, it would be just as premature to state unequivocally that there is absolutely no link whatsoever.
I don't get this...



Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:00 PM EST Tuesday 22 January 2013
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.2 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 6.1°F
Dewpoint: -2.6°F
Humidity: 67 %
Wind: N 11 mph
Wind Chill: -9
Quoting Doppler22:

What are you thinking precipitation wise for Extreme South Central PA? (not in the mountains)


Droppler... I have the e-mail ready for you... I tried to send it to the gmail you gave me but the computer tells me that gmail does not exist...
Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z CMC is much further north with snowfall

Models have a very hard time picking up on cold air damming (CAD). It does appear there will be a piece of southern stream energy moving into a very cold and dry airmass with some phasing off the mid-atlantic. It still needs a day or two for the details.
It's freezing here in the Bahamas...
Temperature: 77 Degrees
Wind: NW 11 mph
1060 mb??? That's a pretty strong high, or should I say a high high..
I got 75.4 here, Airport is hotter....

Mostly Cloudy

80°F

27°C

Humidity6%
Wind SpeedN 3 MPH
Barometer30.04 in (1015.7 mb)
Dewpoint7°F (-14°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index78°F (26°C)

Last Update on 22 Jan 12:53 pm PST

Current conditions at

Riverside, Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)

Lat: 33.95139 Lon: -117.45056 Elev: 814ft.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I don't get this...



Winter Storm Warning is issued if at least 4 inches to 7 inches or more of snow or 3 inches or more of snow with a large accumulation of ice is forecast. In the Southern United States, where severe winter weather is much less common, warning criteria are lower, as low as 2 inches. Otherwise, it is a winter weather advisory.
Starting to look like Winter up there isn't it Keeper.

Toronto Pearson, CA (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 0 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
7 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: -9 °F
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: -2 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the North
Pressure: 30.15 in (Rising)
Visibility: 15.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 4500 ft
Mostly Cloudy 21000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 568 ft
Quoting Chapelhill:
Winter Storm Warning is issued if at least 4 inches to 7 inches or more of snow or 3 inches or more of snow with a large accumulation of ice is forecast. In the Southern United States, where severe winter weather is much less common, warning criteria are lower, as low as 2 inches. Otherwise, it is a winter weather advisory.


I know the warning criteria...why does the weather channel say "FEW" Snow showers and a 30% chance...

I know it's TWC by the way...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I know the warning criteria...why does the weather channel say "FEW" Snow showers and a 30% chance...

I know it's TWC by the way...
It looks like a NWS forcast discussion, and TWC actual forcast. I would expect them to be quite different this far out.
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Weathermans day ( Feb 5) may be coldest since 1996
WEATHER FORECAST FOR MY AREA



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I know the warning criteria...why does the weather channel say "FEW" Snow showers and a 30% chance...

I know it's TWC by the way...


Well I say it because I want a lot of snow and now TWC is letting me down....
Cloudsat of the storm off the NE.
Click pic for loop.
Quoting Thrawst:
It's freezing here in the Bahamas...
Temperature: 77 Degrees
Wind: NW 11 mph
Everyone is breaking out the cold weather gear I see...
Amazing sunset...but at such deceiving conditions outdoors here

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EST Tuesday 22 January 2013
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.2 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 5.4°F
Dewpoint: -4.2°F
Humidity: 64 %
Wind: NW 10 mph
Wind Chill: -10
Quoting WunderGirl12:


lol. It's cold here in Florida.......a chilly 70*F....lol :D (I wore this the other day)

is that you or just a model and i be careful as long as its not to far over the line when posting pictures such as these it is a weather blog
Quoting WunderGirl12:


lol. It's cold here in Florida.......a chilly 70*F....lol :D (I wore this the other day)



is that you?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is that you or just a model and i be careful as long as its not to far over the line when posting pictures such as these it is a weather blog
Be careful who you say you are....
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Droppler... I have the e-mail ready for you... I tried to send it to the gmail you gave me but the computer tells me that gmail does not exist...

Droppler 22 may be a computer generated entity from an e-mail account that has still to be created at some point in somebody else's future. All things have to be considered in this electronic world.
Evening every body out on that thin blue line of ice.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Droppler 22 may be a computer generated entity from an e-mail account that has still to be created at some point in somebody else's future. All things have to be considered in this electronic world.
Evening every body out on that thin blue line of ice.


?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Be careful who you say you are....


i am nobody but somebody that may be anybody
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i am nobody but somebody that may be anybody
I was a somebody but not anybody that is somebody, at least anybody
TWC... How are dams weather related?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TWC... How are dams weather related?
Who gives a dam..Sorry Max, Had to say that
Not that kind of Dam or that one either Damn.
Think they meant cold air damming.cold air damming
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I know the warning criteria...why does the weather channel say "FEW" Snow showers and a 30% chance...

I know it's TWC by the way...

Well the NWS and TWC are two completely separate entities that both make their own forecasts. Both places will use some different things to base their forecasts on and some similar things. I've seen where TWC and NWS have been 10 degrees apart in temperature forecasts. What they see is what they forecast. The forecast will probably change in a day anyway. Also, just go off whatever you truly think is right and even make your own forecasts which I see you do.
Beautiful weather here in south Florida.... mid 70's. Windows all open. This is why I live here
Quoting Neapolitan:
Climate Central has a great piece on SSW and the effect on the current U.S. cold snap, along with its possible implications for the remainder of the winter:

Stratospheric Phenomenon Is Bringing Frigid Cold to U.S

"An unusual event playing out high in the atmosphere above the Arctic Circle is setting the stage for what could be weeks upon weeks of frigid cold across wide swaths of the U.S., having already helped to bring cold and snowy weather to parts of Europe.

While the physics behind sudden stratospheric warming events are complicated, their implications are not: such events are often harbingers of colder weather in North America and Eurasia. The ongoing event favors colder and possibly stormier weather for as long as four to eight weeks after the event, meaning that after a mild start to the winter, the rest of this month and February could bring the coldest weather of the winter season to parts of the U.S., along with a heightened chance of snow.

Sudden stratospheric warming events take place in about half of all Northern Hemisphere winters, and they have been occurring with increasing frequency during the past decade, possibly related to the loss of Arctic sea ice due to global warming. Arctic sea ice declined to its smallest extent on record in September 2012."


Source



Apparently the "rest of this month" excludes the deep south and Florida. We'll see how February turns out. I have a hard time buying into massive cold out breaks arriving around here when its been well above average so far this winter. Meso-scale patterns are very stubborn, and often trump global patterns during their period of domination over a region.

That doesn't mean I'm saying their won't be much colder weather in February, I'm just not sold on it.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Beautiful weather here in south Florida.... mid 70's. Windows all open. This is why i live here


NICE... 76.1 at my place.



Mostly Cloudy

81°F

27°C

Humidity6%
Wind Speedcalm
Barometer30.02 in (1015.4 mb)
Dewpoint9°F (-13°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index79°F (26°C)

Last Update on 22 Jan 1:53 pm PST

Current conditions at

Riverside, Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)

Lat: 33.95139 Lon: -117.45056 Elev: 814ft.
Also, the high temperature in Detroit never made it mast 15F, I think like 11 or 12, thus today was the coldest day in around 3 years. The low this morning was a steamy -1F with a balmy wind chill of around -20F.
okay..18z GFS is taking a southern route





I've got a stream like that.... and native trout too!!!!

It never freezes over here.
18z Nam is taking a more northern route



Snow for the east???? I hope so.
nice anim graph/gif of the

Sudden Stratospheric Warming



The Tropical Cyclone Reports for hurricanes Miriam, Ileana, and Gordon are out.

Gordon - 110 mph/965 mb

Miriam - 120 mph/959 mb

Ileana - 85 mph/978 mb
Just got off the phone with a cousin near Syracuse, NY. She asked if JOVE was responsible for the snows and extensive travel delays. I told her I didn't think so. She was a little distraught that she didn't have a name to focus on or blame for the situation. I told her she could name these times between winter fronts "Ish Kabibble", which satisfied her. Unless someone has a better idea.
.
.
In other science news, I wonder if she could post a picture of her feet...

.
.
.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Tropical Cyclone Reports for hurricanes Miriam, Ileana, and Gordon are out.

Gordon - 110 mph/965 mb

Miriam - 120 mph/959 mb

Ileana - 85 mph/978 mb


Your link for Ileana is the same as Miriam's. You might want to change that :-)
2013 Farmers Almanac highlights:

* Temperatures will be much colder this winter from the East Coast westward to a line from the Dakotas to Texas.

*In every place west of this line, except for portions of the Desert Southwest, temperatures will be warmer than last winter.

* Snowfall will be above normal near the Great Salt Lake and in the areas from El Paso to Detroit to Virginia Beach.

* Snowfall be will below normal in most other locations.

* Areas suffering from drought during Summer 2012 should receive enough winter precipitation to bring improvement.

* Spring and summer will be much rainier than normal in Florida, easing its drought.

* Drier-than-normal weather will continue to be the rule in much of Georgia.

* Summer temperatures will be hotter than normal along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and in the Ohio Valley, but cooler than normal elsewhere.
Expect fewer tornadoes than in the past couple of years.

* Be ready for hurricanes to threaten first the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in June and then primarily the Southeast, especially Florida, through the remainder of the hurricane season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
2013 Farmers Almanac highlights:

* Temperatures will be much colder this winter from the East Coast westward to a line from the Dakotas to Texas.

*In every place west of this line, except for portions of the Desert Southwest, temperatures will be warmer than last winter.

* Snowfall will be above normal near the Great Salt Lake and in the areas from El Paso to Detroit to Virginia Beach.

* Snowfall be will below normal in most other locations.

* Areas suffering from drought during Summer 2012 should receive enough winter precipitation to bring improvement.

* Spring and summer will be much rainier than normal in Florida, easing its drought.

* Drier-than-normal weather will continue to be the rule in much of Georgia.

* Summer temperatures will be hotter than normal along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and in the Ohio Valley, but cooler than normal elsewhere.
Expect fewer tornadoes than in the past couple of years.

* Be ready for hurricanes to threaten first the Gulf and Atlantic coasts in June and then primarily the Southeast, especially Florida, through the remainder of the hurricane season.
I'm still waiting for that to happen up here.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i am nobody but somebody that may be anybody


Quoting JustPlantIt:
I've got a stream like that.... and native trout too!!!!

It never freezes over here.
Where are you JustP?
Quoting indianrivguy:


Cause I ain't got nobody
nobody, nobody cares for me
I'm so sad and lonely
sad and lonely, sad and lonely
Nice blog about lake effect snows from weatherhistorian

Link
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TWC... How are dams weather related?


I dont know...maybe their Hydrometeorological sector loves dams.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Tropical Cyclone Reports for hurricanes Miriam, Ileana, and Gordon are out.

Gordon - 110 mph/965 mb

Miriam - 120 mph/959 mb

Ileana - 85 mph/978 mb



huh! Gordo is kept at 110...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Who gives a dam..Sorry Max, Had to say that


geez... Thanks
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



huh! Gordo is kept at 110...

Well there's not exactly much evidence to upgrade it. Wasn't organized enough.

Plus, I told you guys months in advance. :P

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13 on November 21, 2012:

There is some evidence to support Beryl briefly being a hurricane right before landfall, but it will likely end up not enough for an upgrade.

There are no plans to add any operationally-unclassified tropical cyclones in post-season analysis. The May invest did not sustain convection for a sufficient amount of time.

Don't expect any real changes for Nadine except perhaps an earlier post-tropical cyclone transition.

Ernesto will be bumped up some in intensity based on land observations and satellite intensity estimates.

Not sure on Michael.

Sandy will be upgraded to a major.

Gordon will remain a 95 knot Category 2.
whooo! 930 mb with hurricane winds on Friday = big fish party crasher

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well there's not exactly much evidence to upgrade it. Wasn't organized enough.

Plus, I told you guys months in advance. :P



sure Cody, your prediction was right...

I am still not sure about Beryl, they mentioned it could briefly made it to 75 mph, apparently they ignored it... ot the "briefly amount of time" was too brief...
Right now...

16F and feel like 0F!!!
WNW winds near 20 mph.... brrr (no, BRRRR!!!!!)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
whooo! 930 mb with hurricane winds on Friday = big fish party crasher



Its a Good thing,that this is a US site .
I doubt there are any bloggers in the community from Iceland,Britain or Ireland.
Or are there?
I imagine if there were, they would not be happy with that wishcasting!!
I found this pretty funny from Gordon's TCR.

"Gordon’s peak intensity was estimated to occur when the eye formed and the Dvorak estimates were the highest, around 0000 UTC 19 August."
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


sure Cody, your prediction was right...

I am still not sure about Beryl, they mentioned it could briefly made it to 75 mph, apparently they ignored it... ot the "briefly amount of time" was too brief...

Actually I really don't think Beryl had achieved hurricane strength, and if she did it was for a very brief time.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Also, the high temperature in Detroit never made it mast 15F, I think like 11 or 12, thus today was the coldest day in around 3 years. The low this morning was a steamy -1F with a balmy wind chill of around -20F.


I didn't get a second digit for my high temp today. Could be worse though!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Cause I ain't got nobody
nobody, nobody cares for me
I'm so sad and lonely
sad and lonely, sad and lonely
Noooobody knows the weather I've seen....
Quoting Slamguitar:


I didn't get a second digit for my high temp today. Could be worse though!

I guess it could've been worse, though it was freezing cold and I had school.
I WANT COLD WEATHER!!1 I WANT COLD WEATHER!! ALL SOUTH FLORIDA HAS TO CONTEND WITH IS ANOTHER HOT HOT HOT PERIOD. I WANT THE COLD WEATHER!!! I PRAYED TO GOD TO MAKE THE COLD SNAP MORE SEVERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA!!! NOW IT JUST "POOOOOOFFF".........DISAPPEARED!!!!!!!!!
Quoting LokiWxLogic:


Its a Good thing,that this is a US site .
I doubt there are any bloggers in the community from Iceland,Britain or Ireland.
Or are there?
I imagine if there were, they would not be happy with that wishcasting!!


Yeah, no kidding. That's this blog for you. Folks who have it so good over here in their plush upper class settings wishcasting a mega-low pressure system out to sea. Only they don't forget life exists outside the good ole U.S. of A. and that mega-low would be crashing into very near the U.K.

Pretty sad. I see the same cheerleading for monster storms in the GOM every year. Only this salivating is intentional and very forthright.

Just don't get it.


I'm wishcasting a mega arctic cold snap for february for south florida. THE REAL FORECAST......NICE AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S!!!!!!
Today's State Extremes
State Highs:
Santee 84°F
Fullerton 84°F
Camp Pendleton 84°F
North Island 82°F
Camarillo 82°F

State Lows:
Truckee-Tahoe 5°F
Alturas 10°F
South Lake Tahoe 10°F
Big Bear City 12°F
Lancaster 16°F

77.6 for me. Airport was 81
Well if you want cold air it is usually a good idea to move farther north where it is cold or at least take a trip for a few months. If you can't or don't want to then you have to deal with the warm weather. Usually it is the opposite, people going from cold to warm during winter, not warm to cold.
We've got a very rare lake effect snow band parked over Albany, NY... about a half inch so far! A half inch is not impressive, what's impressive is that it's Lake Ontario dumping on us!
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Just got off the phone with a cousin near Syracuse, NY. She asked if JOVE was responsible for the snows and extensive travel delays. I told her I didn't think so. She was a little distraught that she didn't have a name to focus on or blame for the situation. I told her she could name these times between winter fronts "Ish Kabibble", which satisfied her. Unless someone has a better idea.
.
.
In other science news, I wonder if she could post a picture of her feet...

.
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i love this post :)
JMA Model


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



* Summer temperatures will be hotter than normal along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and in the Ohio Valley, but cooler than normal elsewhere.
Anomalous ridging instead of troughing? Oh hell yeah!


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well there's not exactly much evidence to upgrade it. Wasn't organized enough.

Plus, I told you guys months in advance. :P

If I recall, weren't you one of the ones who originally speculated that Gordon should be upgraded?
Quoting KoritheMan:

Anomalous ridging instead of troughing? Oh hell yeah!

Almanac seems to think Florida will be the target for tropical cyclones this season. Goes along with a lot of people on Storm2k and across other forums/websites.

Quoting KoritheMan:

If I recall, weren't you one of the ones who originally speculated that Gordon should be upgraded?

Not sure...I don't think so. I remember saying I would be mad if Gordon didn't strengthen past 110 mph (which it didn't).

Stupid storm.
PlazaRed Storm Pictures

This is link to the pictures of the Clock Tower. The first one is before and the rest are in the group at that link.....
Morning all,

Ex-TC Oswald's circulation is now almost west of Cairns.



Quoting ncstorm:
JMA Model



that would be a solid storm for DC and the rest of the I-95 corridor.
Quoting ncstorm:
JMA Model



CAN THAT PLEASE COME TRUE
Quoting wxgeek723:


CAN THAT PLEASE COME TRUE


I want to come true too. But no one seems to be giving any detail on it. not the nws the weather channel accuweather or even here.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not sure...I don't think so. I remember saying I would be mad if Gordon didn't strengthen past 110 mph (which it didn't).

Stupid storm.
Even assuming Gordon and Sandy both had upgrades, we would still only have about only one full major hurricane day. How does that happen?
Wake me up when the hurricane season starts lol, the weather in FL is quite boring. Farming must be booming this year with the lack of arctic plunging air.
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_________________________

Simple... If you are in the blue, you could be in for snow, possibly significant



Click imager for larger view
Quoting wxgeek723:


CAN THAT PLEASE COME TRUE


The JMA seems to be in line with the GFS which is taking the southern route while the NAM and CMC take a more northern route..I dont know about the Euro as I still dont know where I get access to their snow map..looks like the Euro temp map has the cold air in place at the NC/VA line..














These are PlazaRed's Storm Pictures
209. etxwx
Smoggy weather makes produce prices rise in China
2013-01-22 (Xinhua)
Excerpt: Prices for farm produce continued to gain during the week ending on Jan 20 due to shrinking supplies affected by smoggy weather, the Ministry of Commerce said Monday.

Wholesale prices for 18 vegetables monitored in 36 major cities climbed 1.9 percent from Jan 14 to 20, with average prices for onion, cowpea and green pepper up 5.7 percent, 5.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, the ministry said in an online report.

The growth has mainly been attributed to decreased supplies resulting from continuous smog that enveloped multiple Chinese cities last week, as well as a decrease in cultivation area for potatoes and white turnips, according to the distribution productivity promotion center of China commerce.

Food prices, which account for about one-third of the prices used to calculate the consumer price index, triggered rising inflation this winter.


Link
Quoting wxchaser97:

Actually I really don't think Beryl had achieved hurricane strength, and if she did it was for a very brief time.


If Beryl did it was over open Atlantic waters. I live less than 30 miles from landfall (12 miles or so inland as the crow flies) and probably had wind gusts (not sustained) in the 30's at best. If I recollect, there was a top reported gust of 72 mph on the coast.
211. etxwx
Beijing vows cleaner air
2013-01-23 00:45
By CAO YIN and ZHENG XIN ( China Daily)
Excerpt: The Beijing government said on Tuesday it will continue its efforts to deal with air pollution in 2013, promising that the amount of major pollutants will decrease by 2 percent.

The capital will pay more attention to PM2.5, or airborne particles measuring less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter, to improve air quality and make the city more livable, according to a government work report published at the opening of the annual session of the Beijing Municipal People's Congress, the city's top legislature.

To reduce pollution, the heating systems of 44,000 aging single-story houses and coal-burning boilers downtown are to be replaced by clean-energy sources, said Wang Anshun, the city's acting mayor, adding that the government will also take 180,000 old autos off the road.

Qian Xiaomeng, a deputy to the congress, spoke highly of the measures and believed the aim of pollution reduction will be achieved. "We invested much money on coping with air pollution and made some achievements, but sometimes we didn't keep the results," said Qian, who works in a city park.


Link
Rhinelander (KRHI)
Elevation
1621 ft
Station Select
Now
Clear
Clear
Temperature
-6 °F
Feels Like -25 °F
Wind(mph)
12


another cold night.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EST Tuesday 22 January 2013
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 30.2 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 4.8°F
Dewpoint: -1.8°F
Humidity: 73 %
Wind: NW 6 mph
Wind Chill: -6
214. etxwx

A haze of smoke hangs over Athens early Jan. 3. The hazy conditions result from residents' switch to wooden stoves and fireplaces for heating, as many households can no longer afford to buy heating oil. Petros Giannakouris/AP

Under A Cloud Of Austerity, Real Smoke Clouds Greece As Well
by Joanna Kakissis - NPR - January 22, 2013

Excerpt: In this winter of austerity and Depression-era unemployment, a fog of woodsmoke hangs over the Greek capital on cold nights. It's coming from the tens of thousands of fireplaces and wood-burning stoves Athenians are using to heat their homes. Most can no longer afford heating oil, the price of which has risen 40 percent since last year. The government also cut a fuel subsidy for low-income families earlier this month.

Some Greeks buy cheap firewood; others used their discarded Christmas trees as kindling. The most desperate are burning old furniture and raiding protected forests. Someone even hacked away the remains of a 3,000-year-old olive tree where Plato is said to have taught.


More here.
Whichever model gives Southern Pennsylvania more snow is the one om routing for! :P
anyone think we'll have a el nino during the coming hurricane season??
Quoting KoritheMan:

Even assuming Gordon and Sandy both had upgrades, we would still only have about only one full major hurricane day. How does that happen?

A lack of vertical instability, that's how.

Absent since 2010...

Quoting stormhank:
anyone think we'll have a el nino during the coming hurricane season??

I'm expecting the exact opposite, actually, if my opinion counts for anything.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A lack of vertical instability, that's how.

Absent since 2010...


I'm expecting the exact opposite, actually, if my opinion counts for anything.
hey cody its danny right now we have a cold neutral lingering and most of the models show enso neutral going back and forth from warm to cold through the spring and summer. this year i think we will get a full blown neutral the entire season unlike last season where la nina dissipated we had neutral for like 2 months and then a weak el nino for a month. going to be an active season however if the vertical instability will be low then we wont be getting as much strong hurricanes similar to last season
Did Ileana TCR was taken out of the NHC for a reason?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hey cody its danny right now we have a cold neutral lingering and most of the models show enso neutral going back and forth from warm to cold through the spring and summer. this year i think we will get a full blown neutral the entire season unlike last season where la nina dissipated we had neutral for like 2 months and then a weak el nino for a month. going to be an active season however if the vertical instability will be low then we wont be getting as much strong hurricanes similar to last season
I am actually rooting for that there is vertical instability these season is boring to not have Majors in the Atlantic.
Quoting allancalderini:
Did Ileana TCR was taken out of the NHC for a reason?

The one the National Hurricane Center published earlier today is only a draft, so it does not officially appear on the list.

You can find it under this directory though.
For those that live in Southeast NC...

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Cody, the latest model runs this evening are trending much colder with the event coming up on Friday. Within 15-20 miles of the coast it still appears too much warm air will be present and all rain should occur. Farther inland, and especially near and west of Interstate 95, it's looking increasing likely there will be some freezing rain or sleet and perhaps even a little snow at the onset. A lot of this forecast depends on exactly what path the surface low takes since it will serve to separate the arctic air to the north from warmer air trying to punch in from the south. We'll begin to trend our Friday forecasts in an icy direction overnight.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The one the National Hurricane Center published earlier today is only a draft, so it does not officially appear on the list.

You can find it under this directory though.
Thanks :)
OSWALD
Quoting DeepSouthUS:
I'm wishcasting a mega arctic cold snap for february for south florida. THE REAL FORECAST......NICE AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S!!!!!!
Why? If you want that move back North!
NE storm wind swath forecast.
High of -21 to -20 C (-4 F) expected tomorrow. Low of -26 or -27 C (-16.6 F) tonight.

The last time the temperature stayed below -20 C all day was on January 21, 2005. I mistakenly referred to this cold wave as "nothing too unusual"; I stand corrected. It has been a while (January 2005) since I experienced a cold wave as anomalous as this...
so what is wrong with chat ... i cant even get on?
Quoting Dragod66:
so what is wrong with chat ... i cant even get on?
I try too but I couldn`t enter either.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE PETA, CATEGORY ONE (08U)
11:52 AM WST January 23 2013
===========================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Peta (993 hPa) located at 20.3S 117.5E or 80 km northeast of Karratha and 115 km west of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Peta has formed just off the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 55 knots are expected between Karratha and Port Hedland today as Peta moves towards the coast. Gales may extend towards Mardie this evening if the system moves further to the west.

Squally thunderstorms are expected. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, and a Flood Watch has been issued for the Pilbara.

The system is expected to weaken tonight after it crosses the coast. Although the remnants of Peta may move back off the west Pilbara coast later in the week, it is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues coastal areas from Port Hedland to Mardie, including Karratha
yeah... chat is messed up. :(
I was just looking back on Irene (you have to admit the hype during that storm was exciting).

Am I the only one who thinks it's funny how the textbook case of timing, location, and track in a NYC hurricane wasn't enough to flood the city but some bizarre storm in late October with an insane track that no one even saw coming was able to do it? Truly ironic.
Quoting PedleyCA:














These are PlazaRed's Storm Pictures


Was the bent metal a lightning strike?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Was the bent metal a lightning strike?


I just posted those for PlazaRed. That first picture was supposed to be before the storm and I see that the metal thing is already flopping when
that was taken. The main damage I can see is the clock part is trashed.
I think the last picture is a duplicate of the first one. Maybe he took 2
of the same thing.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



I'm expecting the exact opposite, actually, if my opinion counts for anything.
It doesn't.
Weekly Tropical Climate Note

Issued on Tuesday 22 January 2013

MJO moves east, North Australian Monsoon remains active

Over the past week, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved eastwards into the western Pacific Ocean. The enhanced convection observed over East Timor and southern Indonesia last week has dissipated. Over the next week, the MJO is expected to slowly progress across the Pacific and weaken, although still maintaining moderate strength. Hence, the Western Pacific is likely to experience enhanced convective activity with increased risk of tropical cyclone activity in the southwest Pacific, including the Coral Sea.
Despite the MJO moving out of Australian longitudes, the monsoon trough over northern Australia remains active. However, most of the storm activity is concentrated around ex-tropical cyclone Oswald near the Cape York Peninsula and another developing low pressure system over the Kimberly region of Western Australia leaving the Top End in a gap between the two systems.
Across northern Australia, ex-tropical cyclone Oswald will continue to bring heavy rain and squally winds across far north QLD. These conditions are likely to continue until early next week as the tropical depression makes its way into the Coral Sea by Tuesday.
In the coming fortnight the MJO is expected to shift into the western hemisphere, meaning the Australian longitudes will be under the suppressed phase of the MJO. Westerly winds across the Top End will ease. As a result, northern Australia is likely to see a break in the monsoon, with lower rainfall totals and a reduced risk of tropical cyclone formation.

See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO.

Pacific ENSO-neutral

All indicators of ENSO are currently within the neutral range. Over the past week the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific have cooled slightly. The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 index is -0.4 °C. The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value to 20 January is +3.3.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to remain neutral through the first quarter of 2013. Only one model indicates continued cooling in the NINO3.4 index.

See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 5:41am EST on Wednesday the 23rd of January 2013 and valid until end
of Friday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At 4am AEST Wednesday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was situated approximately 40
kilometres west northwest of Cooktown and moving in a south southeasterly
direction at about 18 kilometres per hour. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald is
expected to continue moving in a south southeasterly direction inland of the
Queensland east coast over the next few days, though the system may move into
the Coral Sea by Friday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Low
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: Moderate

Quoting wxgeek723:
Truly ironic.
Truly iconic.
Hey guys, if anyone was here from last night, I was questioned on what my point was on the difference between winter storms and tropical ones in reference to TWC's naming habits. Shortly I will roll out a blog where I discuss my point and offer support and reasoning for said point. I hope as many as possible will read it.

Should be done in 10 minutes or so. Maybe 5.

Quoting Astrometeor:
Hey guys, if anyone was here from last night, I was questioned on what my point was on the difference between winter storms and tropical ones in reference to TWC's naming habits. Shortly I will roll out a blog where I discuss my point and offer support and reasoning for said point. I hope as many as possible will read it.

Should be done in 10 minutes or so. Maybe 5.
Yeah, do that. We're all ears.


A bit of Weather 101 with Cloud Types! Here is an interesting and easy to understand illustration of different cloud names, and the respective cloud heights. (Courtesy of The Cloud Appreciation Society)
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yeah, do that. We're all ears.


Sure thing Kori, anything for you. Or Cody if he is still awake, lol.
Strange, I now have an uncanny desire to lay in a field and watch clouds all day. I wonder where it came from.
243. BtnTx
Quoting PedleyCA:














These are PlazaRed's Storm Pictures
Nice pics!
Morning Aussie - Good Evening to Everyone Else - Sleep Well -Stay Safe
See You When the Sun Returns to this Side. Stay Warm.....
the 00z NAM has come south now

Quoting wxgeek723:
I was just looking back on Irene (you have to admit the hype during that storm was exciting).

Am I the only one who thinks it's funny how the textbook case of timing, location, and track in a NYC hurricane wasn't enough to flood the city but some bizarre storm in late October with an insane track that no one even saw coming was able to do it? Truly ironic.
Irene was not a hurricane when she hit NYC for one thing. Sandy came in at just the right angle and why do we keep calling Sandy Supper storm? Cat 1 with a cat 3 surge ?

Quoting gulfbreeze:
why do we keep calling Sandy Supper storm?
Because global warming.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Irene was not a hurricane when she hit NYC for one thing. Sandy came in at just the right angle and why do we keep calling Sandy Supper storm? Cat 1 with a cat 3 surge ?


Because YOLO

Sandy is called a super storm because:
1) Unique nature and track of the system
2) Media scare terms

I still like Frankenstorm - we've already had a storm dubbed 'Superstorm'. Anyway I doubt Irene was even a hurricane past Maryland; I'm just saying it's odd how the two situations unfolded.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Because global warming.
Thats all you know everything is GW.

Quoting gulfbreeze:
Thats all you know everything is GW.
I was being sarcastic.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Because YOLO

Sandy is called a super storm because:
1) Unique nature and track of the system
2) Media scare terms

I still like Frankenstorm - we've already had a storm dubbed 'Superstorm'. Anyway I doubt Irene was even a hurricane past Maryland; I'm just saying it's odd how the two situations unfolded.
I can go for that.It's just some on this blog want to blame everything on GW.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I was being sarcastic.
Ok
KoritheMan I do not mean any harm. I am not sure about Gw mabe True !
Quoting gulfbreeze:
I can go for that.It's just some on this blog want to blame everything on GW.
I think it's fairly obvious that large-scale weather patterns are being influenced by global warming, although to what extent is not known. All we can definitively say is that increases in extreme weather, such as what we've seen the last few years, are consistent with what the anthropogenic global warming theory states. However, it would be most foolish to attribute any single weather event -- no matter how extreme -- to global warming. In particular, I find there is virtually no evidence that Atlantic hurricane frequency, track, or intensity is being appreciably altered in any way by man-made global warming. Most notably, the only real "extremes" have been in our basin, and only after the AMO switched to positive in 1995. More data is needed before we start pointing to global warming as significantly altering Atlantic hurricanes.

It would be immensely helpful, if say, we had the mean storm tracks for the basin during the Medieval Warm Period, as it would perhaps shed some light on how a warming world alters the behavior of Atlantic hurricanes.
Northern Queensland cops a drenching



Flooding has cut the highway and forced the closure of the train line between Townsville and Cairns after torrential rain across north Queensland.
Hundreds of millimetres of rain has fallen overnight as a result of ex-tropical cyclone Oswald.
The ex-cyclone is now about 85 kilometres west of Cape Tribulation and is moving slowly south, bringing damaging winds and heavy rain.
The weather bureau says it could lead to flash flooding in parts of the north tropical coast and Tablelands.
Queensland Rail (QR) has been forced to close the Townsville to Cairns rail line because of water over the tracks at a number of places, including Tully, Bilyana, Aloomba, and Deeral.

Crews will assess damage when flooding subsides.

A QR spokeswoman says passengers will have to wait in the cities because they cannot arrange alternative transport due to road closures.
About 130 millimetres of rain has been dumped on Ingham, north of Townsville, in the past three hours.
Residents there are being urged to stock up on supplies as the Herbert River continues to rise and is expected to peak at 11 metres later today.
Tully has recorded more than 600 millimetres of rain in 48 hours, and almost 200mm has been recorded at Mission Beach and near Cairns.
Further north, Weipa has recorded 300 millimetres of rain since 9:00am (AEST) yesterday.
Senior forecaster David Grant says more heavy falls are likely and warnings are in place.
"There'll be intense rainfall around in the vicinity of the ex-tropical cyclone, however, in the general area right across north Queensland in association with the monsoon trough we will see some heavy rainfall right across the region," he said.
"As a result we do have a severe weather warning for heavy rainfall and flash flooding."

Road cuts

The Bruce Highway at Seymour River is closed due to flooding and Townsville and Cairns residents have been warned to reconsider travel between the cities.
Police are warning drivers to avoid travelling through Tully until further notice.
The Bruce Highway has been closed at the Dean Road and Banyan Creek crossing, East Feluga Road at Mission Beach and the Mission Beach Road at Banyan Creek.
In the Innisfail area, there is about a metre of water over the road at the Wangan road works and the intersection of Henderson Drive and South Johnstone Road.
The weather bureau says the system is moving south and possibly out to the Coral Sea.
Severe weather conditions are also expected to affect the Mackay region today.
A flood warning has been issued for rivers and streams between Cooktown and Mackay, and wind gusts of up to 90 kilometres an hour are likely.
Forecaster Janine Yuasa says parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields will also experience wet and windy conditions.
"It's going to be mostly north of Moranbah today and probably much of tomorrow as well, but that will eventually spread south to maybe about Emerald on Friday, Saturday," she said.
"And they can expect some moderate to heavy falls in there as well."


© ABC 2013



logs floating down the Johnstone River, Townsville.


Flash flooding in Townsville.


Streets in Garbutt Townsville are starting to not cope with the rainfall rates. 4-5 streets which now have water over them.


Trebonne, QLD


Flash flooding appearing from 10 minutes of torrential rain in Townsville.


The Strand beach front in Townsville, as heavy rain and gusty winds buffer the coast.
Cyclone Peta is making landfall on the northwest coast of Western Australia, and the remains of Oswald are over northern Queensland. Both systems are bringing heavy rain and flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE PETA, CATEGORY ONE (08U)
2:51 PM WST January 23 2013
===========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Peta (992 hPa) located at 20.6S 117.3E or 50 km east northeast of Karratha and 140 km west southwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center in northern quadrants
15 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity:

Tropical Cyclone Peta is crossing the Pilbara coast just to the east of Point Samson. Gales with gusts to 55 knots are expected close to the cyclone center over the next few hours.

Squally thunderstorms are expected. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, and a Flood Watch has been issued for the Pilbara.

The system is expected to weaken this evening after it crosses the coast. Although the remnants of Peta may move back off the west Pilbara coast later in the week, it is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Port Hedland to Dampier, including Karratha

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 21.3S 116.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 21.4S 116.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 20.9S 113.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.7S 110.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Cyclone Peta was named at 0300UTC today, based on an observation of sustained gales to the southwest of the centre. While gales may not have extended far enough around the system to truly be a tropical cyclone, the decision was made to name Peta due to the fact that gales were expected to impact mainland communities.

Dvorak intensity provides ineffective guidance in this instance - intensity is based on surface observations of winds exceeding 33 knots at Cape Lambert, as well as winds reaching 30 knots over land at Roebourne. Recent movement has been to the southwest, which will take the tropical cyclone over land in the next hour or two. The system should rapidly weaken below cyclone strength once it hits land.

Widespread rainfall totals of 30-60 mm over the next 24 hours are expected between Karratha and Port Hedland and inland towards Paraburdoo and Newman, with isolated falls in the range 60-100 mm and possible peak fall of around 150mm. The heaviest rainfall is likely to occur within 50 kilometres of the coast between Karratha and Port Hedland but localised heavy falls may occur further inland.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A lack of vertical instability, that's how.
What explains the lack of vertical instability though?

A lack of vertical instability in itself doesn't explain the root of the problem. Vertical instability is simply a product derived from the state of the atmosphere. Therefore, we must look at what is causing this stabler atmospheric profile. I'm not going to take the time to mess around with PSD Reanalysis anomalies to find potential causes. As a first guess, however, I'd say the ENSO and SST Anomalies in and around the tropical Atlantic are the biggest influences, as they usually are.
TC Peta

Loop

Ex-TC Oswald

Loop
Minor flooding as cyclone Peta crosses Pilbara coast

Minor flooding has been reported in Western Australia's Pilbara as tropical cyclone Peta crosses the coast.
The category one cyclone, which developed from a tropical low, hit land at Point Samson, about 35 kilometres east of Karratha.
Gales with gusts up to 100 kilometres an hour are expected close to the cyclone centre over the next few hours.
A flood watch and a blue alert has been issued for the Pilbara and the Bureau of Meteorology is advising that squally thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall can be expected.
Port Hedland received more than 100 millimetres of rain overnight and work crews are out and about trying to fix flooding and drainage issues. The town's youth centre has received minor damage while heavy rains have closed the local landfill site.
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services', Jim Cahill, says the State Emergency Service has not yet received any calls for help.
"Drains have become blocked and the water has just built up around the drains," he said.
"It will slowly go away, they haven't reported any major flooding areas at all."
The Dampier Port has closed in anticipation of adverse weather.
The port authority's chief executive Steve Lewis says they will monitor the situation before re-opening the facility.
"We have had to err on the side of caution and just make sure everything is safe," he said.
"However, obviously well in a position now for this thing to pass through."
Port Hedland's port is expected to re-open later this afternoon while Dampier's port remains closed.
Rio Tinto yesterday suspended ship loading operations at the ports of Dampier and Cape Lambert.
A 160 kilometre section of the North West Coastal highway is closed due to flooding between Roebourne & the Great Northern Highway intersection, 40 kilometres west of Port Hedland.


© ABC 2013
Weather wreaks havoc in the Far North

THE Bruce Highway has been re-opened but is down to a single lane through Tully and Cardwell with delays expected in both areas.
The road had initially been cut in two sections on either side of Tully and also just south of Cardwell, but was re-opened this afternoon.
Motorists are urged to proceed with caution.
The Bureau of Meteorology was earlier predicting damaging winds, with gusts to 90 km/h, heavy rainfall, and likely flash flooding will hit the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower and Burdekin and remaining parts of the Peninsula district today.
Six hour rainfall accumulations of 100 to 200 mm were possible.
This heavy rain may also worsen the existing flood situation in areas with flood warnings current across parts of north Queensland.
Locations which may be affected include Weipa, Coen, Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail, Townsville, Bowen, Proserpine and Mackay.
Meanwhile, train services in the region were also affected by continuing poor weather with the line between Cairns and Townsville closed.
Heavy rain on the Kuranda Range has forced the cancellation of all services of the Kuranda Scenic Railway today.
The Cairns Tilt Train scheduled to depart Cairns today will now commence from Townsville due to flooding on roads between Cairns and Townsville.
The northbound Sunlander service which departed Brisbane yesterday will terminate in Townsville instead of Cairns.
Ergon Energy hope to have power restored in the Cape York communities of Mapoon, Napranum and Aurukun today after it was cut during Cyclone Oswald yesterday.
One crew was able to fly into Weipa yesterday on a commercial flight and an Ergon spokesperson said a further three were flying in today.
Around 500 customers had been affected by the power cuts, with crews also working to restore power to a telecommunications facility at Aurukun.
Road access to Tully was earlier completely cut after flooding caused the Bruce Highway to close at both ends of the town.
The highway was shut at both Dean Rd and Banyan Creek for some time.
Police are also warning motorists to drive with care and obey all road closure signs and warnings, and are urging people to be patient, consider alternative routes or delay travel where needed.
CURRENT ROAD CLOSURES & ADVICE (7.30am January 23):
CLOSURE/DELAYS – Kuranda Range (One lane closed to vehicles heading to Cairns at Rainforestation due to tree across road, Main Roads attending, expect delays for at least 1-2 hours)
CLOSED – Foxton Bridge, Mossman (Bridge flooded, emergency services attempting to retrieve a semi submerged vehicle, occupants escaped unharmed)
CLOSED -Bruce Highway at Ingham (Flooding of Seymour River, road closed to all traffic)
CAUTION – Mossman Mount Molloy Road (Road currently open however subject to flashing flooding. Bushy Creek at approximately 600mm and rising)
CAUTION – Silkwood Japoon Rd (Road currently open however subject to flash flooding, do not attempt to navigate road if flooded)
CLOSED/DELAYS - Tully Mission Beach Road (Currently closed due to flash flooding)
CLOSED – Burke Developmental Road, Highbury Tablelands (Closed from 44kms East of Dunbar to Palmerville Rd due to flooding)
CLOSED – Burke Developmental Road, Howitt-Carpentaria Shire (Closed to all vehicles from Walkers Creek to Capentaria boundary due to flooding)
CAUTION – Peninsula Developmental Road, Coen to Weipa (Road subject to 5 tonne GVM limit due to saturated pavements, do no attempt to navigate flooded roads)
CAUTION – Peninsula Developmental Road, Laura to Coen, Cook Shire (Road subject to 5 tonne GVM limit due to saturated pavements, Laura Bridge (North) currently closed due to flooding)

© The Cairns Post
Far North gets wet and wild



AN Atherton family's dramatic escape from croc-infested floodwaters is a sign of more to come as the Far North braces for 700mm of rain on the coast around Cairns over the next four days.
Tropical cyclone Oswald formed late yesterday and was due to cross the western Cape coast early this morning, bringing with it a deluge of rain for the eastern coast between Cooktown and Bowen.
Cape emergency groups were on high alert as the communities of Pormpuraaw and Kowanyama were preparing for the Category 1 cyclone to make landfall. A father of four braved two raging, croc-infested rivers and walked barefoot for 25km yesterday to save his young family trapped by rising floodwaters near Laura.
As wild weather lashed the region ahead of the approach of cyclone Oswald, rivers rose, trapping the family between two waterways in a remote corner of Cape York on Sunday.
The Atherton family, including four children under 12, spent a terrifying night huddled in their four-wheel-drive about 30km south of the township as the Laura and Normanby rivers rose around them on Battle Camp Rd with no food, no provisions and no phone service.
Laura police officer-in-charge Sen-Constable Ben Tome said early yesterday morning the father made the decision to try to cross the river and get help.
"There was nothing in between those two rivers, there's no civilisation," he said.
"The rain continued to fall and the rivers continued to rise.
"This morning at first light he decided to swim the river and commenced the walk.
"But at the end of the day if he didn't, they had no food and no reception and their car battery was flat."
He said the man walked 15km before having to cross a second river and a further 10km before reaching a cattle property.
He called the police from the property.
"He was quite lethargic and tired as you can imagine," Sen-Constable Tome said.
"He didn't have shoes on for the trek so his feet were all cut up.
"But even when I spoke to him when he raised the alarm, all he was concerned about was his wife and kids."
With the area inaccessible by road, the Emergency Management Queensland rescue helicopter crew flew in and plucked the family from the roof of their vehicle as water lapped just under the roof.
The family were airlifted uninjured to Laura before a friend drove up to collect them and take them home.
Their car had been lost in the floodwaters. Sen-Constable Tome said it was a timely reminder to people that were planning journeys during the wet season.
"Be prepared, check road conditions and if you're travelling in these remote areas, carry a satellite phone and extra provisions," he said.

© The Cairns Post
Ex-TC Oswald


TC Peta
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY TWO (09F)
18:00 PM FST January 23 2013
======================================

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANUA

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF SOUTHERN COOKS BETWEEN SUWARROW AND PALMERSTON


At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Garry (987 hPa) located near 14.1S 168.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
60 NM from the center elsewhere

Organization has not improved much past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent in the northern semi-circle of the low level circulation center but aerial extent reduced in size. System lies downstream of an upper level trough in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good in the eastern semicircle of system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 spiral, yielding DT=3.0. MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.3S 167.5W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.8S 166.4W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 16.2S 163.5W - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
The earth has a fever, and she will vomit out her inhabitants.

The stage is set, a table is prepared ...

Out in the South Pacific, Cyclone Garry is moving away from Samoa:

Garry:

Any new model runs for Fri NE storm??? Closer or further away from the coast?
Morning everyone!

Evening Aussie!


Barron Falls in full flood, North Queensland.

This is what Barron Falls look like in the dry season.



Total height of the falls 260m(853ft)
Longest drop 107m(351ft)
Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning everyone!

Evening Aussie!

Good evening.

I'm currently watching the Cairns and Port Hedland Radars.

Also texting my Brother, he was lucky to get home from Townsville Airport this afternoon with so many roads flooded in and around Townsville.

Some Townsville WX Stations.






Townsville official rain fall from 09:00 this morning, Current time it 20:25.


The following photo's are from in and around Townsville, Queensland.





Good Evening Aussie!..has the storms and all that rain cooled things off a bit for you folks down there at all?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good evening.

I'm currently watching the Cairns and Port Hedland Radars.

Also texting my Brother, he was lucky to get home from Townsville Airport this afternoon with so many roads flooded in and around Townsville.

Some Townsville WX Stations.







Are the rain measurements for the month or just for a 24 hour period ..
Good Morning Folks!!..the Blogs Coffee is perked..grab a cup or two on this chilly morning..Have a great day!!
Quoting whitewabit:

Are the rain measurements for the month or just for a 24 hour period ..

just from 9am this morning but they could also reset at midnight.

on checking the WX station pages, they reset at midnight. So the rainfall totals are for 20hrs and 44mins.
Tampa Bay area 7-day..53 degree's here right now........
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Evening Aussie!..has the storms and all that rain cooled things off a bit for you folks down there at all?

Since the Monsoon has started it's chased away all the hot air and replaced it with humid air.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Since the Monsoon has started it's chased away all the hot air and replaced it with humid air.
yeah our hurricanes do that also, but at least those over 100 temps lessened..over 100 degree's is brutal i know
looks like the snow will be spreading a lil eastward tomorrow and tomorrow night towards the midlantic and northeast states
Quoting AussieStorm:

just from 9am this morning but they could also reset at midnight.

on checking the WX station pages, they reset at midnight. So the rainfall totals are for 20hrs and 44mins.


That is a lot of rain for that short of a period !!
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah our hurricanes do that also, but at least those over 100 temps lessened..over 100 degree's is brutal i know

100 degrees is good for me but over 110 degrees is brutal. Last Friday it was 115.88F here at my place. The plants in my back yard are now showing signs of sunburn.
Quoting whitewabit:


That is a lot of rain for that short of a period !!

Hence all the flooding and road closures.
Quoting AussieStorm:

100 degrees is good for me but over 110 degrees is brutal. Last Friday it was 115.88F here at my place. The plants in my back yard are now showing signs of sunburn.
yeah ive been in 105 degree's and was praying for a few cloudy rainy days..its terrible especially if you work out doors
Looks Like Friday might get interesting .....................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY TODAY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hence all the flooding and road closures.


Yes I see from your pic's ..
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah ive been in 105 degree's and was praying for a few cloudy rainy days..its terrible especially if you work out doors

105F is my limit to liking hot weather, anything over that is too hot.
Quoting whitewabit:


Yes I see from your pic's ..

I could post hundreds that I have seen on FB.
wow cold up in NYC........SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 AM EST WED JAN 23 2013

NYZ072>075-176-178-231700-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
348 AM EST WED JAN 23 2013

THE COMBINATION OF 15 TO 20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS AND AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
OF 5 BELOW ZERO TO AROUND ZERO THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDCHILL
VALUES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THIS
AFTERNOON.

WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DROP JUST BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL.

THERE IS A THREAT OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WITH PROLONGED
OVEREXPOSURE. FOR THOSE VENTURING OUT...WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES
AND COVER YOUR HEAD TO PROTECT AGAINST FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
LIMIT AREAS OF EXPOSED SKIN. DRESSING IN LAYERS CAN ALSO HELP
PROTECT YOU AGAINST THE COLD. LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS IF POSSIBLE.

$$
Nice day ahead for south florida............
For my area

Morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 48 degrees here, but a high of 69 expected. It was great to finally get the kids out to recess yesterday, though not all the playground is dry yet even after a week with no rain.

I've put an egg and sausage cassarole and some cinnamon rolls over with Largo's coffee. And a bagal for Doug.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Hey guys, if anyone was here from last night, I was questioned on what my point was on the difference between winter storms and tropical ones in reference to TWC's naming habits. Shortly I will roll out a blog where I discuss my point and offer support and reasoning for said point. I hope as many as possible will read it.

Should be done in 10 minutes or so. Maybe 5.


Is this blog up yet. No link to it?
Quoting AussieStorm:


Is this blog up yet. No link to it?


Hi Aussie
from my part... Its just so cold for me to do anything...
see #297

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 48 degrees here, but a high of 69 expected. It was great to finally get the kids out to recess yesterday, though not all the playground is dry yet even after a week with no rain.

I've put an egg and sausage cassarole and some cinnamon rolls over with Largo's coffee. And a bagal for Doug.



I want to have some of it too....





I want to have some of it too....


Sideboard's open to all in chat. Help yourself.

A friend moved from here in Louisiana to Watertown, NY about two months ago. She is having quite a shock with the temp differences and all the snow. Her kids had never seen snow before. They sure are now!
Pretty rare for the SPC to throw in a Day 7 severe risk in January:



TIMING DIFFERENCES DO EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. STILL...THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL WARM
SECTOR MOISTURE...AS WELL AS A BROAD AREA OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND FORCING ALL SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER IS PROBABLE.
THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE THE THREAT WILL INITIATE...MATURE...AND
DIMINISH. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREA...WILL INTRODUCE SEVERE FOR TUE/D7
CENTERED OVER AR.

THIS SEVERE AREA IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SHAPE AND SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS AS MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES.
as yesterday's sunset was amazing, so it's todays sunrise.
NYC time is 6:45 AM

VERY COLD BRRR!!!!

by the way, there is a power pole next to one of the windows in my room from where I took that picture from, so yeah those power lines were scary during Sandy...



get larger image by clicking on it...
Still sleeping Largo? Where the coffee?


35.4F On da Bayou Grande this am.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Sideboard's open to all in chat. Help yourself.

A friend moved from here in Louisiana to Watertown, NY about two months ago. She is having quite a shock with the temp differences and all the snow. Her kids had never seen snow before. They sure are now!


Louisiana to Watertown, NY. Yep, that's a shock.

My mother was from Dexter, NY, close to Watertown and my father brought her from there to Pointe-Ala-Hache, LA, back in 1946, before they sprayed for mosquitos. And then they had a flooding hurricane in 1947. It's a tribute to love that she stayed. As a kid I made trips back north; the cold was amazing to the LA boy.

11 on the back porch in VA this morning. Our coldest morning this winter and I'm enjoying the coffee; about to put the biscuits on.

Good day.
Im having my good bagel with coffee right now...
Apparently "fish spinner/fish storm" is now a term at the NHC too

NWS Albany, NY:

BY FRI AFTN NEXT SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS PHASE INTO A TROF
OVER THE GRTLKS LKS AND PIVOT TO THE SEABOARD BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE GUID SUITE IS MOVING TWRD MORE CONSENSUS THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS.

THE N BRANCH AND SRN BRANCH ENERGY NEVER PHASE. AT SFC WEAK
CLIPPER LOW RACES ACROSS FCA WITH GFS/NAM/GEM/GEFS ENS/SREFS ENS
AND NEW HPC ALL PRODUCING QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.10 LIQ EQUIV.
ENOUGH FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF FLUFFY SNOW AT BEST FRI NT. WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF FCA OUT OVER GULF STREAM CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES
WELL OFFSHORE...A FISH STORM.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Still sleeping Largo? Where the coffee?


35.4F On da Bayou Grande this am.

Your late, it's all gone.
Everyone have a great Wednesday!
Quoting TomTaylor:
What explains the lack of vertical instability though?

A lack of vertical instability in itself doesn't explain the root of the problem. Vertical instability is simply a product derived from the state of the atmosphere. Therefore, we must look at what is causing this stabler atmospheric profile. I'm not going to take the time to mess around with PSD Reanalysis anomalies to find potential causes. As a first guess, however, I'd say the ENSO and SST Anomalies in and around the tropical Atlantic are the biggest influences, as they usually are.

I don't think so. Both 2011 and 2012 were Neutral years, with 2011 being a cold Neutral, and 2012 being a warm Neutral. Sea Surface Temperatures were above average across the Atlantic in both years, yet we still saw a significant lack of intense hurricanes.
Thanks to the MJO and, it's suspected, the recent SSW event, things do seem to be a bit backwards at the moment--or, rather, upside-down. Here's a quick comparison of selected current global temperatures, listed from southernmost to northernmost:

Tallahassee, FL: 30F
New York City: 13F
Winnipeg: -14F
Churchill, Manitoba: -27F
Narsaq, Greenland: 5F
Anchorage, AK: 31F
Nome, AK: 13F
Ilulissat, Greenland: 37F*
Tromso, Norway: 21F*
Longyearbyen, Norway: 10F*

* - indicates a location north of the Arctic Circle.

So to summarize: it's currently colder in Tallahassee, Florida--a city at 30.4N latitude--than it is in Ilulissat, Greenland, a town inside the Arctic Circle on Greenland's western coast. And it's warmer in Tromso, Norway, hundreds of miles north of the Arctic Circle, than it is in NYC.
Quoting AussieStorm:

105F is my limit to liking hot weather, anything over that is too hot.


Haha, here you start hearing complaints about how hot it is when the weather hits around 65F, and they get pretty common if it gets into the 70-75F range. Sadly, I'm getting to be a bit like that too ;) The solution is always something like, "Just take off your heavy wool sweater and you'll be fine!"
Tropical,

Why does Wiki and I think Dr. M show 2011 and 2012 as blue/La Nina years but you call them neutral.

Also why does wikipedia have the graph for 2012 in the thumbnail but only 2011 when you click on it.???
Everyone have a great day, I am off to court in an effort to stop a polluter.

DEMAND CLEAN WATER
Quoting KarenRei:


Haha, here you start hearing complaints about how hot it is when the weather hits around 65F, and they get pretty common if it gets into the 70-75F range. Sadly, I'm getting to be a bit like that too ;) The solution is always something like, "Just take off your heavy wool sweater and you'll be fine!"

I tell my wife when she complains it's to hot and when she looks at me and I'm not hot. I tell her it's cause I sit where there is a breeze, as the breeze hot or cold It cools the sweat on my skin which then cools me down. For some reason my wife closes the bedroom windows before going to bed which lock the heat that's in the room, when I go to bed I open the windows and it lets whatever heat in the room out and also if there is a breeze outside it lets it in. I also don't wear much when it's hot.
Aussie good evening!

Someone here said the Austrailian weather folks were having to add new isotherms. I'm not sure what that would mean unless they needed to add new colors to a temperature chart. Did you do any of that?
Quoting indianrivguy:
Everyone have a great day, I am off to court in an effort to stop a polluter.

DEMAND CLEAN WATER

Fight hard mate, nothing more I hate than a water polluter.
318. beell
What is the average Jan temp in Tromso, Norway, I wonder. Or Winnipeg?
Quoting biff4ugo:
Aussie good evening!

Someone here said the Austrailian weather folks were having to add new isotherms. I'm not sure what that would mean unless they needed to add new colors to a temperature chart. Did you do any of that?


That was the BOM when there forecast map predicted temps of 50C-54C. The map only went up to 50C so they had to add purple.

Quoting beell:
What is the average Jan temp in Tromso, Norway, I wonder.

Have a look for yourself....


Larger image.
will get warmer today jedkins after that freezing night..
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Still sleeping Largo? Where the coffee?


35.4F On da Bayou Grande this am.
LOL getting in here late means you get the bottom of the pot..we all had ours already..ok ok..another pot is perking lol
Ex-TC Oswald is sure moving alot of moisture around.

snow is the word the next few days northeast.........
Quoting indianrivguy:
Everyone have a great day, I am off to court in an effort to stop a polluter.

DEMAND CLEAN WATER


Best of luck IR..
Thank goodness there are people like you with the guts to take on these people..
00z CMC..snow for this weekend



06z GFS


06z NAM (has come south along with the GFS)
If anyone has some spare time. Have a watch of WeatherBrains episode 365. Guest is Dr. Scott A. Braun, a research meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD, studies hurricanes from the inside out. To do so, Scott is an expert at using satellite and aircraft data to investigate how hurricanes interact with their environment and computer modeling to recreate the components of hurricanes, including wind, rainfall, and in-cloud heating. Scott is also the Principal Investigator for NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission. HS3 is a five-year mission specifically targeted to investigate hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean basin. In his role, Scott leads a diverse team of hurricane and instrument scientists to design and conduct experiments using unmanned aircraft to understand better the meteorological conditions that favor storm formation and often lead to the development of major hurricanes.

Quoting pcola57:


Best of luck IR..
Thank goodness there are people like you with the guts to take on these people..

10000000000% agree with these comments.
looks like a huge atlantic storm will form out there..
new york state warning.................ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK...

AN ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING
FROM 15 BELOW ZERO TO 40 BELOW ZERO.

HERE ARE SOME SAFETY TIPS FOR THE EXTREME COLD...

1. IF YOU MUST GO OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS...COVER ALL EXPOSED
SKIN AND KEEP DRY. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS OF FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA.
2. IT IS RECOMMENDED TO KEEP INDOOR TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 55
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
3. CHECK YOUR AUTOMOBILE FOR PROPER FUEL...ANTIFREEZE...WINDSHIELD
WIPER FLUID AND OIL LEVELS.
4. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS OF FIRE PLACES AND ANY INDOOR HEATING
DEVICE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. NEVER USE A
GENERATOR INSIDE YOUR HOME!

THESE HELPFUL TIPS AND MUCH MORE ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER-WEATHER

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
Quoting AussieStorm:

Your late, it's all gone.



Dude!


And here I was thinkin' we was tight!
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
Bethesda MD this morning is 13 degree's..lol i told my wife not to go..well she wanted to visit our daughter up there for a week..hope she stays warm
National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
Interactive Snow Information website
Current Jet Stream..


Quoting AussieStorm:
National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
Interactive Snow Information website
..nice site..thanks aussie..looks like the snow is moving slowly eastward..maybe washi will get her snow friday
Ok the second pot has perked, grab your cup while its hot..coffee is served
be careful north carolina driving when this gets to you this week..remember that 86 car pile up yesterday in ohio on those iced roadways..keep your distance and drive safe ok............................................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

$$

VINCENT/BADGETT
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THEN ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. WHILE IT IS TO EARLY TO GIVE SPECIFIC
SNOW AMOUNTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.
344. VR46L
Morning Folks


GOES Composite - Northern Hemisphere Imagery - Water Vapor Loop

Loop Embedded


Quoting LargoFl:
..nice site..thanks aussie..looks like the snow is moving slowly eastward..maybe washi will get her snow friday

Here's another you might like.

NWS Enhanced Data Display v2.0
Quoting biff4ugo:
Tropical,

Why does Wiki and I think Dr. M show 2011 and 2012 as blue/La Nina years but you call them neutral.

Also why does wikipedia have the graph for 2012 in the thumbnail but only 2011 when you click on it.???

Well, I was going off the beginning of the seasons; even then instability was well under what it was supposed to be. The latter half of 2011 was indeed a La Niña.

Not sure what you're referring to about wiki...link?
Well, it now appears that our chances for a eastern winter storm Friday are fading fast. All models seem to shear the system out allowing it to be much drier with poor lift. A sheared system would not allow phasing of the northern and southern shortwaves. A light event would happen MD to NC, but not the storm we were thinking it would be.

Good morning everyone, today is the first day of finals. At least I get to be back home a little after 11am. It is obviously still cold up here with chances for snow the next couple days. Lake effect snow showers will provide some light accumulations, except for 2-5" in the Thumb, today into early tomorrow. Then a clipper system should bring another 1-3" over the entire SE MI area, my map doesn't show that though. Have a great day everyone.
Quoting Chapelhill:
Well, it now appears that our chances for a eastern winter storm Friday are fading fast. All models seem to shear the system out allowing it to be much drier with poor lift. A sheared system would not allow phasing of the northern and southern shortwaves. A light event would happen MD to NC, but not the storm we were thinking it would be.



If I just see a flurry I will be happy. We haven't had any snow in ENC in over two years.
350. ARiot
I was recently back in the Mid-Atlantic, I95 corridor, AKA DC, MD, NOVA....

I noticed that how they deal with winter has changed since I lived up there back in the 1990s. It's enough to notice right away upon returning to the area.


So my question.

Is it:

a) problems dealing with risk, liability
b) it's warmer now
c) pure hype
d) all of the above

I'm pretty sure it's d) all of the above.






Parents of Red Hot Chili Peppers' guitarist Josh Klinghoffer rescued in North Queensland floods

THE parents of US rockers Red Hot Chili Peppers' guitarist Josh Klinghoffer learnt a dangerous lesson about northern Australia when they were rescued from a flooded causeway while holidaying in the Port Douglas region.
After saying goodbye to their famous son in Sydney, where he is on tour for the Big Day Out, Steven and Kathleen Klinghoffer flew to Cairns and hired a car for a scenic drive to Silky Oaks.
When the couple came across a flooded causeway on Tuesday, they attempted to cross it.
"Having gone through puddles before, I figured, 'if I just go slow I can get across'.
"The part I didn't know, which I learnt after, was that the road went deeper and deeper, a bit of a gully - what I considered a road, turned into a river," Mr Klinghoffer said.
"Once we hit that spot the car stalled, and we were trapped." A local family came to the aid of the tourists, before the RACQ and an employee of Silky Oaks Lodge eventually came to help tow the car. The Klinghoffers had managed to get out of the car while the water was still at their waists and carefully climb to safety.
"The car got totally submerged, we were right in the middle," Mr Klinghoffer said. "We are very, very thankful to everybody and we learnt a lesson about Northern Australia."

The Cairns Post
Today I woke up to a toasty 9 degrees.Snow could fall over night into the earlier morning hours.Right now it's looking like D.C will get little accumalation from any of these events.Once again D.C will be in a snow hole...
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 AM EST Wednesday 23 January 2013
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.3 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: -2.6°F
Dewpoint: -14.1°F
Humidity: 57 %
Wind: NNW 2 mph
Wind Chill: -9
354. etxwx
Good morning all....another foggy morning this morning in East Texas, but once it burns off the high will be in the mid 70's. That's my kind of weather. Hope everyone is staying warm up north!
Quoting ARiot:
I was recently back in the Mid-Atlantic, I95 corridor, AKA DC, MD, NOVA....

I noticed that how they deal with winter has changed since I lived up there back in the 1990s. It's enough to notice right away upon returning to the area.


So my question.

Is it:

a) problems dealing with risk, liability
b) it's warmer now
c) pure hype
d) all of the above

I'm pretty sure it's d) all of the above.








Questions: Who has changed... Public? Media? Forecasters?; Examples of what is different?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Today I woke up to a toasty 9 degrees.Snow could fall over night into the earlier morning hours.Right now it's looking like D.C will get little accumalation from any of these events.Once again D.C will be in a snow hole...

Has Chicago had any snow this winter or they still stuck at 0"?
Fort Myers Florida, Page Field
As of 8:53 am 1/23/13

Temp 56° (13°C)
Humidity 46%
Wind Speed NE 14 G 21 mph under fair skies
Barometer 30.82 in (1026.8 mb)
Dewpoint 37° (3°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi

Forcast high 75° low 51°

Quoting AussieStorm:

Has Chicago had any snow this winter or they still stuck at 0"?
I'm not sure..I don't really keep up with their weather.And is this a plea to have me stop complaining about my snow problems?.Because as long as this is winter and there is cold around I'am going to talk about snow!.Snow snow snow snow snow snow snow snow....This is not only for you Aussie but for the other bloggers as well.It's very dry outside.I put lotion on my hands and other exposed skin and within minutes it was like it was sucked out...
Tropical Storm in the South Pacific.



Boring:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Boring:
I feel your pain...I feel your pain...This dry cold is boring.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I feel your pain...I feel your pain...This dry cold is boring.


The winter storms seem to hate us this year!
Quoting ecupirate:


If I just see a flurry I will be happy. We haven't had any snow in ENC in over two years.


I know thats right..while it was snowing last week in Central and Northern NC, it was 78 degrees in SE NC..
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not sure..I don't really keep up with their weather.And is this a plea to have me stop complaining about my snow problems?.Because as long as this is winter and there is cold around I'am going to talk about snow!.Snow snow snow snow snow snow snow snow....This is not only for you Aussie but for the other bloggers as well.It's very dry outside.I put lotion on my hands and other exposed skin and within minutes it was like it was sucked out...

Maybe the more you talk about wanting snow the higher chance of you getting some. or maybe find the snow shield and throw rocks at it. lol
LOL

Quoting FunnelVortex:


The winter storms seem to hate us this year!
I hoping the models do some last minute adjustments and bring the snow up north again.This ground is barren and hard as a rock!.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Maybe the more you talk about wanting snow the higher chance of you getting some. or maybe find the snow shield and throw rocks at it. lol
I think the snow shield is congress...
Chicago has received just 1.3" of snow this year, roughly 8% of the average by this date. Today is the record 332nd in a row with less than 1" of snow on the ground there. Which makes the current cold snap even more amazing; had the cold mass of air settled in atop highly-reflective snow-covered ground instead of light-absorbent brown and gray, temperatures would have doubtless dropped even lower than they did.

At any rate, the polar vortex/SSW/MJO pattern change favors colder air and greater precipitation for Chicago over the next few weeks, so the snow drought may be nearly over for the Windy City.
JMA Model

00z only goes out to 72 hours


12z goes out to 144 hours-this run was showing a lot of snow for everyone


Quoting ncstorm:
JMA Model

00z only goes out to 72 hours


12z goes out to 144 hours-this run was showing a lot of snow for everyone


I don't trust that model...For the one on Friday it appears I won't be getting much.
370. etxwx
Pepé Le Pew, peut-être?

'French stench,' caused by gas leak, drifts to England
By Geert De Clercq, Reuters / January 23, 2013 Paris

Excerpt: 'French stench' was what London tabloids called the gas leak from a French chemical factory. The rotten egg 'stench' came from methanethiol, a non-toxic additive used in natural gas because its sulfurous smell enables gas leaks to be detected.

A cloud of harmless gas smelling of sweat and rotten eggs leaked from a chemicals factory in northwest France and drifted across the English Channel as far as London on Tuesday. The leak occurred on Monday morning at a Lubrizol France plant near Rouen, 120 km (75 miles) northwest of Paris, and winds blew the invisible gas cloud south over northern France on Monday night and then up into England on Tuesday.

The fire brigade in the county of Kent, southeast of London, warned residents to keep their doors and windows closed due to the gas, which may make some people feel nauseous, and police said they had reports of an acrid smell in the capital.

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:
LOL

..LMAO..what a great find there aussie!!
i dunno feels a whole lot colder than 53 with this breeze..
Accuweather thinks D.C can get some shovel and plowable worthy snow from the storm on friday..CWG thinks other wise.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Chicago has received just 1.3" of snow this year, roughly 8% of the average by this date. Today is the record 332nd in a row with less than 1" of snow on the ground there. Which makes the current cold snap even more amazing; had the cold mass of air settled in atop highly-reflective snow-covered ground instead of light-absorbent brown and gray, temperatures would have doubtless dropped even lower than they did.

At any rate, the polar vortex/SSW/MJO pattern change favors colder air and greater precipitation for Chicago over the next few weeks, so the snow drought may be nearly over for the Windy City.


Hoping so! I'm about 150 miles south, but I measured under 2" of snow for a season total. I am very curious to see what, if any role, this stratospheric warming event will have on the rest of our winter here.

Meanwhile a locally heavy band of snow about 10-20 miles wide and 100 miles long has setup from Dubuque, IA, to Indianapolis. If it says on it's current NW to SE axis, I would not all be surprised to see some localized 2 maybe even 3" totals. Seems to be training over the same localized areas and may be intensifying.




DC looks great in snow huh...............
Quoting LargoFl:
DC looks great in snow huh...............
Yep.The monuments and capital look really good whenit's snowing or when it's snow on the ground.
it makes it look like a real winter wonderland.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Hoping so! I'm about 150 miles south, but I measured under 2" of snow for a season total. I am very curious to see what, if any role, this stratospheric warming event will have on the rest of our winter here.

Meanwhile a locally heavy band of snow about 10-20 miles wide and 100 miles long has setup from Dubuque, IA, to Indianapolis. If it says on it's current NW to SE axis, I would not all be surprised to see some localized 2 maybe even 3" totals. Seems to be training over the same localized areas and may be intensifying.




Almost reminds me of the derecho....Hopfully I get an inch from this...
all the models I see start snow in 18 hours up there..
Quoting LargoFl:
all the models I see start snow in 18 hours up there..
This time it'll be the light and powder type.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This time it'll be the light and powder type.
yeah that blowing kind of snow..well good luck
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't trust that model...For the one on Friday it appears I won't be getting much.


it was the only one in line with the GFS with the southern solution..the NAM has now come to a southern solution as well..
Quoting ncstorm:
JMA Model

00z only goes out to 72 hours


12z goes out to 144 hours-this run was showing a lot of snow for everyone




That is showing the southern and northern stream phasing. Not many of the other models are showing that.

I am hopeful for some ENC snow since the NAM is now showing a much more snowier track for us on the latest run. Yesterday it had the storm much further north and over Mid-Virginia
Quoting ncstorm:


it was the only one in line with the GFS with the southern solution..the NAM has now come to a southern solution as well..
Either way none favor my area..
for the maryland side of the potomic?...wonder if my wife in bethesda will get any..bet i hear stories when she gets back..she hasnt seen snow in over 25 years LOL..................LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
94S still wrecking havoc with it's rains in South Africa.

Mozambique has started to evacuate some 55,000 people after heavy rains caused sea levels to rise to dangerous levels in parts of the country, officials say. "We are asking people to move to safer areas," a spokeswoman for the national relief agency said. The south and centre have been placed on red alert because of the floods, which have claimed several lives. The worst affected areas are in the southern Gaza province, where a number of rivers are currently above crisis levels.

Emergency teams are on stand-by and motorboats have been dispatched to help transport people to safety, the AFP news agency reports. The evacuees will be brought to temporary shelters. Some of them have been set up in the capital, Maputo. "We estimate there are 55,000 people affected," Rita Almeida from Mozambique's Disaster Relief Management Institute said. The town of Chokwe, home to a dyke, is particularly vulnerable, she added. "We are registering very high water levels in the Limpopo and Inkomati rivers that could flood the town," Ms Almeida said. From Sunday to Monday, almost 185mm (7 inches) of rain fell over the Limpopo basin, the AFP reports.

International observers have described the situation as critical. There are fears that the dyke in Chokwe could break, which would lead to chaos in the evacuations. "If that dyke breaks, all those people will have to move more rapidly," the country chief of the World Food Programme, Lola Castro, said. Neighbouring South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana have also been hit by severe flooding. In South Africa, floodwaters claimed several lives and left hundreds stranded after the Limpopo river burst its banks on Monday.
local wash dc met says friday a 60% chance of a dusting of snow
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.
Philly PA weather forcast...........FRIDAY: A pair of low pressure centers are cutting to our south, merging and very likely producing at least a little snow for us. But how close will the lows track and where exactly do they go? While there is still some uncertainty, here's what we'll plan for: snow arriving during the afternoon on Friday and extending into Friday night. While it's too soon to promise exact accumulation amounts, we have a couple of scenarios. The first would be for a very minor event with an average 1-2" of snowfall. The other would be a more significant 3-6" snow. Either way, this does not look like a major storm since these lows will not have enough moisture for the sort of mega-snows we experienced a couple years ago. The high on Friday will be 26.
If this turns out being true, it will be the first time we hit -30 C (-22 F) since January 1994. That's amazing; I didn't think I'd ever have a chance to see -30 C again.



They were right in their forecast last night...

dont get discouraged, as of today they still are unsure of where the lows will go and how much moisture will be available, so for right now they are just guessing..but by thurs night they should have all the new data..we'll see then who gets snow and how much..still to early yet
Quoting SteveDa1:
If this turns out being true, it will be the first time we hit -30 C (-22 F) since January 1994. That's amazing; I didn't think I'd ever have a chance to see -30 C again.



They were right in their forecast last night...


What's the -42, is that wind chill?
Quoting LargoFl:
dont get discouraged, as of today they still are unsure of where the lows will go and how much moisture will be available, so for right now they are just guessing..but by thurs night they should have all the new data..we'll see then who gets snow and how much..still to early yet
I'm bitting my nails here!.

Tell Nea he is invited on the blog :).
Quoting AussieStorm:

What's the -42, is that wind chill?


Yes.

:^/
Quoting SteveDa1:


Yes.

:^/

-42F = -41.11C that's just a wee bit cold. lol
400. ARiot
Quoting Chapelhill:


Questions: Who has changed... Public? Media? Forecasters?; Examples of what is different?


Well it's warmer. So I've noticed it. I'm a gardener and tree geek. So I notice, for example, how far southern invasives have gone north, how much earlier things bloom, etc.

Public- yes. As a native southerner, when I first moved to the Mid Atlantic, the locals (like at work) didn't hype the snow. Now, a week out, "I hear we're going to get snow Friday, I may take the day off."

Media- yes. But that's just a side effect of the death of news and the birth of aggregation as news. Leading the 4 o'clock news with snow on Friday when the NWS has it at 30% with little or no accumulation didn't happen when I lived there before. But there wasn't a 4 o'clock news either.

Forecasters - not sure. Baltimore once had a guy who rated storms on loaves of bread he thought you would need. If he went to that scale, you could bet it was a high-certainty forecast for now.

Now, they have the syndrome at local news that has plagued the national news... "We could be in for it" "Some models show" etc.

That's why I suggested all of the above.

Bottom line, if you move every couple of years for a few decades (nearing three in my case) when you get a repeat hitch in a place you lived before, the changes in culture (and weather, in some cases) are noticable.

You also notice changes in your tolerance. For example, I no longer will ride a motorcycle in sub-20 degree morining commutes. Before, I had no problem with it! :-)
I imagine there are going to be quite alot of frost bite injuries in the northern states,its been awhile since its been this cold,years in fact and people forget..its funny, your nose and face gets cold but you keep going,then the burning starts...glad im FAR away from all that now..i sure remember it
warning for Vermont.............WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WIND
CHILL WARNING...UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 BELOW WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 TO 12 MPH TODAY.

* IMPACTS...EXPOSURE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
WIND WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THERE IS AN
ENHANCED THREAT OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA TODAY. TAKE THE
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO BEST PREPARE YOURSELF AND YOUR PROPERTY FOR
THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS THAT WILL EXIST TODAY.

&&

$$
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Hoping so! I'm about 150 miles south, but I measured under 2" of snow for a season total. I am very curious to see what, if any role, this stratospheric warming event will have on the rest of our winter here.

Meanwhile a locally heavy band of snow about 10-20 miles wide and 100 miles long has setup from Dubuque, IA, to Indianapolis. If it says on it's current NW to SE axis, I would not all be surprised to see some localized 2 maybe even 3" totals. Seems to be training over the same localized areas and may be intensifying.








Not a chance you get anything out of that, Illinois Weather Fan.

Keep dreamin', though!


for Maine and New Hampshire..43 below?..geez...........WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 43 BELOW.
405. VR46L
Could be interesting in a few days in the North East Atlantic....

Rainbow Image

warming up in cleveland ohio..only feels like 15 below..a heat wave lol...............WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS MORNING

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 15 BELOW.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...1 TO 10 ABOVE.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
Quoting LargoFl:
I imagine there are going to be quite alot of frost bite injuries in the northern states,its been awhile since its been this cold,years in fact and people forget..its funny, your nose and face gets cold but you keep going,then the burning starts...glad im FAR away from all that now..i sure remember it

I stepped outside for 2mins last Friday when it was 46.6C(115.88F) and got sunburnt. Only noticed it Saturday morning. 2mins, just 2mins and I got sunburnt. Just shows how hot it really was.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
TIMING AFFECTING THE EVENING RUSH...SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON AREA
ROADWAYS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH
MOISTURE WILL YIELD SNOW FOR THIS EVENT. THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I stepped outside for 2mins last Friday when it was 46.6C(115.88F) and got sunburnt. Only noticed it Saturday morning. 2mins, just 2mins and I got sunburnt. Just shows how hot it really was.
yes aussie you have to be really careful down there, amazing temps for sure..
Quoting LargoFl:
yes aussie you have to be really careful down there, amazing temps for sure..

Funny though, there wasn't any real radiant heat from it coming through the windows like it was back on Jan 1 2006. I couldn't sit on the heavy leather lounge back then cause it was so hot to the touch. It almost felt like it was going to burst into flames it was that hot but nothing felt hot this time.
Wednesday
Another cold day to come across all parts of the UK and most of Ireland. There will be an area of mainly light snow affecting central and southern England, although falling as sleet and rain on coasts. This snow area is most likely across the western and southern Midlands and parts of central southern England, edging north through the day. Additional accumulations of 1 or 2cm of snow are expected. A few snow flurries affecting eastern coasts of England and Scotland too. Snow showers could trouble western copasts of Scotland and the hills of Northern Ireland, but most of northwest England and western Scotland should be drier and possibly brighter too. Highs at 0 to 2C for most, 4C in Cornwall and western Ireland.

Elimination of EYE and Addition of CENTER as
Possible Remarks in the Temp Drop Message for
Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific,
Central Pacific and Western Pacific Hurricane
Basins Effective May 15, 2013



Excerpt:


Currently, the Remarks Section (Data Identifer 62626) of the TDM
allows use of the word EYE. Dropsonde (sonde) operators have
been using the word EYE in the Remarks for all sondes released
in the center of all tropical cyclones; however, use of the word
EYE might suggest there is a partial or complete eyewall, when
this may not be the case.

Therefore, effective May 15, 2013, the EYE remark in the Remarks
section will no longer be used. The word CENTER may be used in
the Remarks section. The use of the word CENTER will indicate
the sonde was released in the center of a tropical cyclone,
regardless of whether an actual eye exists.


Also:

Changes to the Wind Information in the Remarks
Section of the Vortex Data Message for Tropical
Cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific,
Central Pacific and Western Pacific Hurricane Basins
Effective May 15, 2013
414. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
Wednesday
Another cold day to come across all parts of the UK and most of Ireland. There will be an area of mainly light snow affecting central and southern England, although falling as sleet and rain on coasts. This snow area is most likely across the western and southern Midlands and parts of central southern England, edging north through the day. Additional accumulations of 1 or 2cm of snow are expected. A few snow flurries affecting eastern coasts of England and Scotland too. Snow showers could trouble western copasts of Scotland and the hills of Northern Ireland, but most of northwest England and western Scotland should be drier and possibly brighter too. Highs at 0 to 2C for most, 4C in Cornwall and western Ireland.



Thanks Largo .. Yep its a cold one ... not as cold as the Northern US but 35ºF is cold enough for me but its a few days down the line that is concerning me ..Hurricane strength winds ,Tight Isobars ... models modeling the winds to be strong for days
Quoting AussieStorm:

I stepped outside for 2mins last Friday when it was 46.6C(115.88F) and got sunburnt. Only noticed it Saturday morning. 2mins, just 2mins and I got sunburnt. Just shows how hot it really was.


Sunburn comes from UV radiation, not IR. If there were some real-time UV measuring instrumentation available, you might find it very interesting. I trust that UV insolation varies dramatically at higher latitudes.

There are times, at my latitude (about 45 N) and altitude (anywhere from 3500 ft to 6000 ft, depending on whee I am), that the light of the sun literally has a biting or stinging feel to it. This was especially pronounced back in '99 and '00, but still occurs. It is a very different sensation from the (to me) delicious feel of the intense Florida sun on and August afternoon.

The only 'home-spun' way I know of to get a even a crude sense of ambient UV is to have items with day-glow colors (such as are made for hazard signalling items, beach toys, and to glow under black lights) out doors in areas of deep shade. They can take on more of a glow, it seems, but it takes some practice getting a sense of it. It is much like the glow they acquire when, just after sunset, there is a lot of UV light out there still, and these objects seems almost to be lighted from with in.

At any rate, probably a good idea to keep some good dark sunglasses at hand.
If you are in Brazoria and Galveston counties in TX, beware of what is scheduled


Maps


There will be 11 pound explosives detonated under ground and under water searching for black gold
I am just wondering when a real arctic outbreak is going to push due south through the CONUS this winter.

So far, we have seen one giant arctic high pressure dome plunge due south, but that was only in the far western US. Record lows were recorded in parts of the intermountain west and Southern California recorded the coldest temps they have seen there in over two decades. That was a couple of weeks ago now.

All of the other arctic high pressure systems have plunged south from the polar region through Canada but have turned left either in Southern Canada or just above the Ohio Valley region in the US. As a result, only the far NE US and areas just below the border in the Central US and the Northern Great Lakes region have experienced a genuine blasting of arctic air. The Southern US and especially Florida have been left out this year, so far.

Last year was a near-record warm winter over most of North America and yet, we saw at least one reasonably cold arctic outbreak as far south as Florida then, it came along right around January 1st, as I recall. Then it warmed back up and we only saw occasional bursts of coolish periods, such as what has happened so far this winter.

I was in the Naples/Ft. Myers area of Florida yesterday and the day before. I noticed that the local TV mets there were describing the forecasted 73 degree high temps for today as "cool but sunny..." Cool but sunny? In years past, when we were used to much colder periods they would not have described a 73F day in the middle of winter as being "cool" under any circumstances. Just goes to show how the mentality shifts or evolves with the circumstances.

Does anyone here know if the long, long range forecasting models are showing any hints of the possibility of a deep dip in the jet stream and an accompanying arctic outbreak for the whole of the eastern two thirds of the US and not just the northern 1/3 of it? I would be curious to find this out, even if it is obviously a very iffy consideration due to the long term variables. One or two of the models were forecasting that possibility for the upcoming weekend a few days ago, led by the normally-reliable ECMWF. But naturally, all the models forecasting a deep eastern trough and a major arctic outbreak quickly shifted back to the usual routine and the previously-projected arctic high pressure dome basically just disappeared. I guess for those of you in the mid-South region who are complaining about the "boring cold" will have to hope for a major shift in the upper air patterns or else this whole winter might shape up like what we have seen so far, which is all the real cold air staying far to the north.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Sunburn comes from UV radiation, not IR. If there were some real-time UV measuring instrumentation available, you might find it very interesting. I trust that UV insolation varies dramatically at higher latitudes.

There are times, at my latitude (about 45 N) and altitude (anywhere from 3500 ft to 6000 ft, depending on whee I am), that the light of the sun literally has a biting or stinging feel to it. This was especially pronounced back in '99 and '00, but still occurs. It is a very different sensation from the (to me) delicious feel of the intense Florida sun on and August afternoon.

The only 'home-spun' way I know of to get a even a crude sense of ambient UV is to have items with day-glow colors (such as are made for hazard signalling items, beach toys, and to glow under black lights) out doors in areas of deep shade. They can take on more of a glow, it seems, but it takes some practice getting a sense of it. It is much like the glow they acquire when, just after sunset, there is a lot of UV light out there still, and these objects seems almost to be lighted from with in.

At any rate, probably a good idea to keep some good dark sunglasses at hand.

Yes, very true.

Anyways, I'm going to bed, way past my bedtime.
I'll leave you with this. One of my favourite songs.


Enjoy and Goodnight, Stay warm. Stay safe if driving.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
420. wxmod
This is the last 24 hours of readings of air quality at the US embassy in Beijing, China. DO NOT BUY CHINESE GOODS! no matter what! China's air pollution is melting Arctic ice. Their behavior will eventually cost the USA all of our low lying land. When you buy a TV or tires or a car, make sure it is not made in China. Please.

BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-24-2013 00:00; PM2.5; 255.0; 305; Hazardous
1h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 23:00; PM2.5; 398.0; 432; Hazardous
2h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 22:00; PM2.5; 378.0; 419; Hazardous
3h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 21:00; PM2.5; 399.0; 433; Hazardous
4h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 20:00; PM2.5; 336.0; 386; Hazardous
5h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 19:00; PM2.5; 321.0; 371; Hazardous
6h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 18:00; PM2.5; 297.0; 347; Hazardous
7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 17:00; PM2.5; 273.0; 323; Hazardous
8h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 16:00; PM2.5; 301.0; 351; Hazardous
9h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 15:00; PM2.5; 359.0; 407; Hazardous
10h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 14:00; PM2.5; 392.0; 428; Hazardous
11h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 13:00; PM2.5; 395.0; 430; Hazardous
11h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-22-2013 12:00 to 01-23-2013 11:59; PM2.5 24hr avg; 379.3; 420; Hazardous

12h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 12:00; PM2.5; 396.0; 431; Hazardous
13h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 11:00; PM2.5; 402.0; 435; Hazardous
14h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 10:00; PM2.5; 401.0; 434; Hazardous
15h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 09:00; PM2.5; 388.0; 426; Hazardous
16h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 08:00; PM2.5; 394.0; 430; Hazardous
17h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 07:00; PM2.5; 422.0; 448; Hazardous
18h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 417.0; 445; Hazardous
19h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 424.0; 450; Hazardous
20h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 04:00; PM2.5; 411.0; 441; Hazardous
21h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 03:00; PM2.5; 437.0; 458; Hazardous
22h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 02:00; PM2.5; 439.0; 459; Hazardous
23h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-23-2013 01:00; PM2.5; 439.0; 459; Hazardous