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2012: Earth's 10th warmest year on record, and warmest with a La Niña

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:04 PM GMT on January 15, 2013

It was another top-ten hottest year on record during 2012, which ranked as the 10th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said today. NASA rated 2012 as the 9th warmest on record. Including 2012, all 12 years to date in the 21st century (2001–2012) rank among the 14 warmest in the 133-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century--1998--was warmer than 2012. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. Global land temperatures were the 7th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 9th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to UAH and RSS, respectively. Following the two wettest years on record (2010 and 2011), 2012 saw near average precipitation on balance across the globe. In a NASA Press Release today, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said, "One more year of numbers isn't in itself significant. What matters is this decade is warmer than the last decade, and that decade was warmer than the decade before. The planet is warming. The reason it's warming is because we are pumping increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."


Figure 1. Departure of global temperature from average for 2012. The continental U.S. and the eastern 2/3 of Canada were Earth's warmest regions, relative to average. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Global extremes of 2012
Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has put together a list of global extremes for 2012, and maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here, then, is Maximiliano's list of 2012 global extremes:

Hottest temperature in the world in 2012: 53.6°C (128.5°F) in Sulaibiya, Kuwait, July 31
Coldest temperature in the world in 2012: -84.2°C (-119.6°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, September 16
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Birdsville, Australia, January 7
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -63.1°C (-81.6°F) at Summit, Greenland, December 28
Highest annual precipitation: Cherrapunji, India, 13364 mm (526")
Lowest annual precipitation:  Several stations in Southern Egypt saw not even a trace of precipitation

All-time world record warm minimum temperature tied: 41.7°C (107°F), Death Valley (USA), July 12
All-time world record highest 24-hour average temperature: 47.5°C (117.5°F), Death Valley (USA), July 11-12
World record high temperature in an island: 51.8°C (125.2°F), Failaka Island, Kuwait, July 31
World record high temperature on a coast: 52.1°C (125.8°F), Kuwait City, Kuwait, July 31
World record highest temperature with rain: 46.1°C (115°F), Needles (USA), August 13
World record for lowest humidity with rain: 11%, Needles (USA), August 13


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of California and Arizona taken at 1:25 pm PDT August 13, 2012. Developing thunderstorms surround Needles, CA, and the line of clouds to the southwest of the city would develop into a thunderstorm that brought rain to the city at 4 pm PDT, at a temperature of 115°F and a relative humidity of 11%--both world records. Image credit: NASA.

New country and territory hottest temperature records set in 2012
Five nations and two territories tied or set their hottest temperature readings in recorded history during 2012; no coldest all-time national records were set. For comparison, Seven countries and one territory set all-time hottest temperature records in 2011, and one nation set an all-time coldest temperature record. The most all-time national heat records in a year occurred in 2010, when twenty nations and one territory did so. Here are the 2012 national heat records:

Morocco recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 17, 2012 in Marrakech, when the mercury hit 49.6°C (121.3°F).

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31, 2012 in Sulaibya, when the mercury hit 53.6°C (128.5°F). This surpasses the highest undisputed temperature ever recorded in Asia--the 53.5°C (128.3°F) measured at Moen Jo-Daro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010. The only higher temperature ever measured in Asia was a 54°C (129.2°F) reading from Tirat Tsvi, Israel on June 22, 1942. The Israeli Met Office pursued an investigation of the record in 2012 (prompted by an inquiry from the WMO and wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt), and concluded that the record was valid. However, they have refused to make public the details leading to their conclusions, and until they do so, the record remains suspect.

Moldova recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 7, 2012 in Falesti, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F).

Montenegro tied its hottest temperature on record on August 8, 2012 in Danilovgrad, when the mercury hit 44.8°C (112.6°F).

The Czech Republic recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 20, 2012 in Dobrichovice, when the mercury hit 40.4°C (104.7°F).

The territory of Hong Kong tied its hottest temperature on record on July 21 on Ping Chau Island, when the mercury hit 37.7°C (99.9°F).

The Sprska Republic set a new territorial high of 42.8°C (109°F) on August 24 at Visegrad.

New U.S. State Records set in 2012
New state record high: South Carolina, at  Columbia University WS and Johnston, 45.0°C (113°F), June 29
State record high temperature tied: Colorado, at Las Animas, 45.6°C (114°F), June 23

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of national heat and cold records on wunderground.com's extremes page, where all of this year's national heat records are updated. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of these national weather records.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Niño/La Niña cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out close to zero over the course of several decades. La Niña events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events have the opposite effect. During 2012, a weak La Niña event was present through March. Warming of the Eastern Pacific waters in the spring brought on neutral conditions, which lasted for the remainder of the year. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present, surpassing the previous record set just the year before, in 2011. Global temperatures were 0.09°C (0.16°F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and 2012 would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Niño event been present instead of a La Niña, as seen by looking at the year-to-date global temperature plot for 2012.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1950 - 2012, classified by phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Niña event was present. ENSO is a natural episodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño/La Niña) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over a period of months to a few years, ENSO fluctuates between warmer-than-average ocean surface waters (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean surface waters (La Niña) in that region. Earth's warmest years tend to occur when an El Niño is present; cooler years occur when a La Niña is occurring. A La Niña (El Niño) year is defined here as occurring when the first three months of a calendar year meet the La Niña (El Niño) criteria as defined by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution
We know that natural episodes of global warming or cooling in the distant past have been caused by changes in sunlight and volcanic dust. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. Through 2010, the three major research groups that maintain global surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (maintained by UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.


Figure 4. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2010, adjusted to remove natural variations due to fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in sunlight. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image credit Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010 by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.


Video 1. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this. Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012. Video courtesy of skepticalscience.com.

Top Ten Weather Lists for 2012

My Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

NCDC's Top Ten Annual Weather/Climate Events

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey Largo... My daughter comes home tomorrow. She had a super great time at Disney World. Her sitters love her. A free ride and she had a blast with those kids too. She'll be arriving around 5 pm in Phila. BIG CHANGE FOR HER

Tomorrow on the 17th.
Must be nice in MS and AL first ice and now snow.
I can only dream of that.
Would have been amazing.
in the Midlantic states, this might just turn out to be a major snow storm..with each update the Inches keep going up,folks heed your LOCAL nws warnings ok, dont wake up to a surprise ok..and please..think snow tires
A winter storm watch for black ice is......kind of dumb.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Hey Largo... My daughter comes home tomorrow. She had a super great time at Disney World. Her sitters love her. A free ride and she had a blast with those kids too. She'll be arriving around 5 pm in Phila. BIG CHANGE FOR HER

Tomorrow on the 17th.
Oh thats wonderful!!..she had great weather and glad she had a great time here..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
A winter storm watch for black ice is......kind of dumb.

It's considered dangerous weather.
LargoFL I already brought a case of toliet paper and...Stocked up on milk and cereal along with bread.I'm prepared.Luckly I was already scheduled to leave work early tomorrow.
Quoting LargoFl:
Oh thats wonderful!!..she had great weather and glad she had a great time here..

Largo,

So my area tomorrow is under the gun for that big snow. I live approximately 30 miles south of washingtonian115.

So with that being said, you sure you don't wanna swap places. haha :)
I'm so glad I moved to florida,i remember days like this..
What's up with this... check this am and nothing... worry, my daughter comes home tomorrow. Any insite?
Quoting LargoFl:
in the Midlantic states, this might just turn out to be a major snow storm..with each update the Inches keep going up,folks heed your LOCAL nws warnings ok, dont wake up to a surprise ok..and please..think snow tires

Snow tires and radial tires are different in their construction, with snow tires better able to adapt to snow and ice conditions. Although radial tires have come an awful long way due to their enhanced safety, there are still reasons to buy snow tires for your vehicle. What's also important is what part of the country you reside in.

Driving in wintry conditions poses some serious challenges, namely, is your vehicle going to hold the road! We all know how difficult it is to drive on icy roads, and damn near impossible to control your vehicle on black ice. Black ice is the condition when just a fine layer of invisible ice coats the road, and is as slippery as Teflon! If you encounter conditions where there is a lot of bad weather and dangerous road conditions, it's advisable to invest in a set of snow tires
Quoting JustPlantIt:
What's up with this... check this am and nothing... worry, my daughter comes home tomorrow. Any insite?

she'll be ok, you folks are used to snow in winter
Do they still allow studded snow tires. I know my Mom always used them... then she would have to get them off before a certian date. They work on ice!
Quoting LargoFl:
Snow tires and radial tires are different in their construction, with snow tires better able to adapt to snow and ice conditions. Although radial tires have come an awful long way due to their enhanced safety, there are still reasons to buy snow tires for your vehicle. What's also important is what part of the country you reside in.

Driving in wintry conditions poses some serious challenges, namely, is your vehicle going to hold the road! We all know how difficult it is to drive on icy roads, and damn near impossible to control your vehicle on black ice. Black ice is the condition when just a fine layer of invisible ice coats the road, and is as slippery as Teflon! If you encounter conditions where there is a lot of bad weather and dangerous road conditions, it's advisable to invest in a set of snow tires

GFS has come around to the snow storm idea..we'll see
Quoting stormchaser43:

It's considered dangerous weather.


oh its VERY dangerous, but this is a winter storm watch for liquid freezing on roads.
They could just wait and then issue an advisory.
It's really not necessary IMO. I can't remember them ever doing it here before either.
weather here in baton rouge says rain / snow showers this evening / night. i see nothing on the radar O_o
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
A winter storm watch for black ice is......kind of dumb.

The definition of a winter storm watch for my CWA (NWS Detroit) is:
Winter Storm
A snow accumulation of at least 5 inches in 6 hours, in combination with one of the following: rain, freezing rain, sleet, wind, blowing snow or cold (wind chill).

(Note: lesser amount of snow can be forecast for mixed precipitation, blowing, etc.)

The reasons you are under a watch really don't fit our criteria so I wouldn't be under a watch. Of course winter storms are handled a little differently down there than up here.
Quoting wxchaser97:

The definition of a winter storm watch for my CWA (NWS Detroit) is:
Winter Storm
A snow accumulation of at least 5 inches in 6 hours, in combination with one of the following: rain, freezing rain, sleet, wind, blowing snow or cold (wind chill).

(Note: lesser amount of snow can be forecast for mixed precipitation, blowing, etc.)

The reasons you are under a watch really don't fit our criteria so I wouldn't be under a watch. Of course winter storms are handled a little differently down there than up here.


Generally 1-2 inches of snow is a winter weather advisory, and 3+ gets winter storm watches and warnings.
Freezing rain gets advisories and warnings. 1/2inch of snow and black ice is not generally warning criteria. Oh will, im still hoping for more than expected. I doubt I'll see much of anything.
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS has come around to the snow storm idea..we'll see



Come on to the East a little more..
Quoting LargoFl:
Snow tires and radial tires are different in their construction, with snow tires better able to adapt to snow and ice conditions. Although radial tires have come an awful long way due to their enhanced safety, there are still reasons to buy snow tires for your vehicle. What's also important is what part of the country you reside in.

Driving in wintry conditions poses some serious challenges, namely, is your vehicle going to hold the road! We all know how difficult it is to drive on icy roads, and damn near impossible to control your vehicle on black ice. Black ice is the condition when just a fine layer of invisible ice coats the road, and is as slippery as Teflon! If you encounter conditions where there is a lot of bad weather and dangerous road conditions, it's advisable to invest in a set of snow tires
The only difference between snow tires and regular tires is the rubber used is softer. Just put on a good set of all weather tires and you will be fine.
THIS FROM 2010..................PRELIMINARY ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORDS SET AT THE THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES IN THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AREA...

AS OF 2 PM TODAY...WITH THE 9.8 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL MEASURED AT RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL IN WASHINGTON DC STANDS AT 54.9 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC OF 54.4 INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1898-99. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR WASHINGTON DC DATE BACK 126 YEARS TO 1884.

AS OF 1 PM TODAY...WITH THE 11.9 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL MEASURED AT BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD MARSHALL AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL IN BALTIMORE STANDS AT 72.3 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR BALTIMORE OF 62.5 INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1995-96. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR BALTIMORE DATE BACK 118 YEARS TO 1893.

FINALLY...AS OF YESTERDAY...THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT STOOD AT 63.5 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD OF 61.9 INCHES SET IN 1995-96. AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DULLES IS 8.5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL 72.0 INCHES. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DULLES DATE BACK 48 YEARS TO 1962.

THESE PRELIMINARY STORM TOTALS ARE AS OF THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 10 FEB 2010...AND WILL BE UPDATED AFTER THE CURRENT SNOW HAS ENDED
Quoting kwgirl:
Say when PalmBeach and I will try to make it:)


kwgirl, glad you reposted this so I could see it and tell PBW I thank her and would like to meet most of the folks she mentioned too! Sorry for the late reply but I've had a family emergecy the past few days and things have finally settled down.
As I mentioned yesterday, the last week of January is looking to be around average to slightly above average in the South and cold in the North and NE. CFSv2, ECMWF weeklies, GEFS and ECMWF EPS all support this idea and apparently the CPC agrees.

Latest CPC Day 8-14 Temp Anomaly Forecast




We haven't had a good snow event in two years here in D.C.The snow lovers are re-joy ing!
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Do they still allow studded snow tires. I know my Mom always used them... then she would have to get them off before a certian date. They work on ice!



You would have to check with the Dept. of Transportation in your State...

Google (studded snow tires in) and it will give a list while you are doing it, look for your State or ask the State D.O.T.
18z NAM currently running

39 hours


42 hours
figures.... either the storm goes through VA/MD or North PA/NY but not South PA -_-...........


Washingtonian can u send me the snow when its done at ur house???
i cant wait for this cold front..shorts and tee shirt here..
Quoting Doppler22:
figures.... either the storm goes through VA/MD or North PA/NY but not South PA -_-...........


Washingtonian can u send me the snow when its done at ur house???
Owwwwww been waiting two years for this.Sorry I promised the kids we'd make snow men.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Owwwwww been waiting two years for this.Sorry I promised the kids we'd make snow men.

yeah i meant send the snow showers this way when ur done with them.... myabe invest in a giant fan :p
D.C looks ok today just rainy and wet........
Quoting LargoFl:
D.C looks ok today just rainy and wet........
You forget to add cold to the list...It's miserable outside.We haven't seen sun in days.Tomorrow wi add to it.
I wonder if my daughter up in Bethesda will get snow too, its close to DC...
Good news for wash.

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

VALID 00Z THU JAN 17 2013 - 00Z SAT JAN 19 2013

...SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND THE CAROLINAS...

A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN
GULF COAST WILL HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/EASTERN GULF COAST THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO WESTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THE
STORM WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT WILL BECOME HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION ... RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ON THURSDAY ... MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER
Quoting washingtonian115:
You forget to add cold to the list...It's miserable outside.We haven't seen sun in days.Tomorrow wi add to it.
CME leaving the Sun now in association with a fairly weak but long duration solar flare that has been taking place for the past couple hours. Looks like its heading mostly away from Earth since sunspot 1650, which produced the flare, is rotating over the Sun's western limb:



Quoting LargoFl:
I wonder if my daughter up in Bethesda will get snow too, its close to DC...
When D.C gets snow so does Bethesda.
Tropicalweatherpr you know I'm happy.
Yesssss..good by 80's.........................
Quoting washingtonian115:
When D.C gets snow so does Bethesda.
Tropicalweatherpr you know I'm happy.
..ok Thank you
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
***ADMIN.FRIENDS...I have bee banned for 1 hour because of what I have said to Nea.... He is a absolute liar and has been posting statements from other people just to make him look good... ADMIN...I know I will be banned forever, That is ok... You can keep your money I paid you.... I do not approve of your teacher's pet attitude NEA...., I am gone... He is a liar and maybe worse lying to make him look good.... Enough already.... Bye to my friends...ADMIN... Take a close look .... You are being fooled........ Bye friends.... Nea... You are a liar...
Don't go.If I'm on the blog Nea usually goes into hiding so he won't be here for awhile.
wonder if Aussies area cooled down any?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
***ADMIN.FRIENDS...I have bee banned for 1 hour because of what I have said to Nea.... He is a absolute liar and has been posting statements from other people just to make him look good... ADMIN...I know I will be banned forever, That is ok... You can keep your money I paid you.... I do not approve of your teacher's pet attitude NEA...., I am gone... He is a liar and maybe worse lying to make him look good.... Enough already.... Bye to my friends...ADMIN... Take a close look .... You are being fooled........ Bye friends.... Nea... You are a liar...
Don't leave I find your vigor refreshing.
Quoting LargoFl:
Snow tires and radial tires are different in their construction, with snow tires better able to adapt to snow and ice conditions. Although radial tires have come an awful long way due to their enhanced safety, there are still reasons to buy snow tires for your vehicle. What's also important is what part of the country you reside in.

Driving in wintry conditions poses some serious challenges, namely, is your vehicle going to hold the road! We all know how difficult it is to drive on icy roads, and damn near impossible to control your vehicle on black ice. Black ice is the condition when just a fine layer of invisible ice coats the road, and is as slippery as Teflon! If you encounter conditions where there is a lot of bad weather and dangerous road conditions, it's advisable to invest in a set of snow tires


Oh and just fyi for everyone, low profile tires are horrible in ice and snow... learned that lesson the hard way..
547. VR46L

PBW , I think you are a great lady , you have a courage that I sometimes lack .
I can back that he manipulated at least one quote today because it was one that I said . I hope Admin noticed it . And you dont get a permaban .
Quoting FtMyersgal:


kwgirl, glad you reposted this so I could see it and tell PBW I thank her and would like to meet most of the folks she mentioned too! Sorry for the late reply but I've had a family emergecy the past few days and things have finally settled down.
I just need a date. It has to be on the weekend though and I get very few National Holidays, just the major six. So when you two decide on a date, let me know. It is only 100 miles to Key Largo. I go to Miami and back again in the same day after shopping:)
Do any of you think we could see a few flakes near biloxi?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SECONDARY WIND SHIFT HAS RUSHED ACROSS NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z AND WE'RE BACK TO A NW WIND DRYING BL FLOW.

BAROCLINIC CIRRUS PREVAIL ABOVE WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A CLEARING OF
THE LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS THE INVERSION CURRENTLY AT THE TOP OF
THE IFR DECK NEAR 1500 FEET IS MODELED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND DRY
OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN
E PA AND N NJ IF SKIES TEMPORARILY CLEAR AT HIGH LEVELS BECAUSE OF
LIGHT WIND AND STILL HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE...A CIG AOA 8000 FT SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH MID LVL LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES. TOO WARM ALOFT
FOR FREEZING PCPN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THU AFTN AND NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO
FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS IS A CLOSE MATCH THE 16Z HPC
INTERNAL SNOW PREDICTIONS USING MULTIPLE TOOLS. IN ADDITION...09Z
SREF WHILE BEING BIASED HIGH BY A COUPLE OF MEMBERS PERFORMED PRETTY
WELL FOR LAST NIGHTS EVENT...ESPECIALLY IF YOU ADJUST THE PTYPE
USING VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES.

THURSDAY...CHILLY RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP...CERTAINLY IN THE AFTN.

ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES STILL HAVE TO DISSIPATE THE WANING ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER IN THE 7000 TO 10000 FT LAYER /750MB/. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY THE 12Z NAM MAX WBZ IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WHICH IS ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH THE LATEST AVBL GFS/NAM MODELS THRU ABOUT 21Z.
HOWEVER... THEREAFTER...VERY LATE IN THE DAY UVM IN THE IDEAL
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE BECOMES INTERESTING AND WE COULD SEE A VERY
QUICK CHANGE FROM MDT RAIN TO MODERATE SNOW IN PTNS OF MDS E SHORE
INTO SRN DE 2-5PM.

PRESUMING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...THE WET SNOW WILL CLING TO
BRANCHES AND WIRES IN A LIGHT WIND NEAR 33F ENVIRONMENT WITH
SLIPPERY SLUSHY TRAVEL DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

WE SEE THE 18Z NAM IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. THAT STATES THE UNCERTAINTY
AND SO ITS A WATCH THAT MAY END UP WITHOUT ANY DECENT SNOW. WATCHES
ARE JUST THAT... A CALL TO ATTENTION BUT NOT A GUARANTEE. OTHERWISE
IF THE WATCH IS A GUARANTEE...WE WOULD WARN. IN THIS
CASE...UNCERTAINTY!

MOS TEMPS WERE MODIFIED DOWNWARD IN THE AFTN PCPN OVER DE/MD (WET
BULBING). OTRW...PRIOR 4 AM FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS WERE VERY
CLOSE TO OUR EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY THE EXTENDED, WITH A BRIEF WARM
PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
EVENING. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION THAT BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE TRANSITION OCCURS, IT
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AS THE AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY SNOW THAT HAD A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING
DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING DURING THIS
TIME. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA. SNOWFALL COULD REACH THE DELAWARE
VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT NORTH OF THAT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SINCE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF LINE. THE AREAS ALONG THE
DELAWARE VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE THAN A
COATING TO AN INCH. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW
JERSEY/CENTRAL SOUTHERN DELMARVA WE COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2-6
INCHES. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PRODUCING THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT A FAIR PACE, SO IT WILL NOT BE AROUND
ALL NIGHT LONG. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS. IFR CIGS WITH LEFTOVER
RAIN OR SPRINKLES/FREEZING IN THE POCONOS/ SHIFTING SEWD THRU THE
EVENING. LIGHT WIND.

TONIGHT...CIGS WILL DEFINITELY LIFT TO AOA 8000 FT. LIGHT NW WIND.
TAFS HAVE FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY KRDG AND KABE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS LOWERING DURING THE AFTN WITH RAIN IN DE/MD
AND FAR SE NJ INCLUDING KMIV AND KACY CHANGING TO WET SNOW BETWEEN
19Z/17-00Z/18Z. LIGHT NNW WIND MAY INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY...AND ODDS FAVOR IT REMAINS SOUTH OF
PHILADELPHIA.

Quoting nymore:
Don't leave I find your vigor refreshing.



Hahaha..looks like they both got the ban...
Quoting yonzabam:
I wonder if the regional cooling in China is at least partly due to the pollution problems they're having. After a hiatus of around 30 years, from the 40s to the 70s, global warming only really started in earnest in the late 70s. This coincided with the introduction of clean air laws in North America and Europe.



Look into "global dimming."
Quoting washingtonian115:
Don't go.If I'm on the blog Nea usually goes into hiding so he won't be here for awhile.
I don't understand this animosity, or rather I do understand it, but why do you and PB put up with Nea when the simple thing to do would be to ignore him. My list is long on that account, but I enjoy his/her writing. Somewhat sharp tongued at times, but being forth right with your opinions and telling it like it is can be refreshing. I am somewhat like that, where I say a truism and people call me cruel. What is cruel about speaking the truth? And I have learned to take what people say on the internet with a salt lick! If he gets too caustic, I will minus the post. Don't take the bait!
Not sure if this has already been posted, but here's a nice 48hr satellite loop (with lightning strikes) of the massive low that recently bombed out to 932mb off the coast of Japan.





Also of note, significant wave heights with this storm are 20 meters (66 feet) according to the OPC's analysis. Based off the Rayleigh distribution, one would expect the highest 10% of waves (within the area of 20m SWH) to be 25 meters (82 feet) high. Theoretically, a rouge wave in this storm (defined as a wave with a height of more than twice the significant wave height) would be more than 130 ft tall. This same storm is also forecasted to bring 35-40ft waves to Hawaii (for properly exposed breaks).

This is all is the result of the polar and subtropical branches of the jet phasing, plus the additional moisture and heat from tropical invest 94.


Quoting auburn:



Hahaha..looks like they both got the ban...


Admin is watching ...
Quoting whitewabit:


Admin is watching ...


Opps...sorry admin :)
Its my Birthday..so I am throwing caution to the wind...forgot what blog I was on..sorry all!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Not sure if this has already been posted, but here's a nice 48hr satellite loop (with lightning strikes) of the massive low that recently bombed out to 932mb off the coast of Japan.





Also of note, significant wave heights with this storm are 20 meters (66 feet) according to the OPC's analysis. Based off the Rayleigh distribution, one would expect the highest 10% of waves to be 25 meters (82 feet) high. Theoretically, a rouge wave in this storm (defined as a wave with a height of more than twice the significant wave height) would be more than 130 ft tall. Pretty crazy stuff.



Here is a better wave map





Quoting hericane96:
Do any of you think we could see a few flakes near biloxi?
Very doubtful, but not impossible.
Quoting nymore:


Here is a better wave map





Not really. Because of the poor spatial resolution on that map, it is only showing significant wave heights around 40ft.

Here's a high res shot from the OPC showing significant wave heights of 63ft

48hr NAM Winter 4 Panel Plot

Quoting TomTaylor:
Not really. Because of the poor spatial resolution on that map, it is only showing significant wave heights around 40ft.

Here's a high res shot from the OPC showing significant wave heights of 63ft

thanks for the map
What happened to Neapolitan. I had a couple of questions for him. I go to find his blog, and it said it is banned?? Link

Why? What did he do?
Quoting auburn:
Its my Birthday..so I am throwing caution to the wind...forgot what blog I was on..sorry all!

Happy Birthday to you!!
Quoting ncstorm:


seems like nea isnt liked on either watts or masters blog..LOL..maybe he needs to learn to be nice..cant lure bees to vinegar..


Oh. I guess so. I hope he is back though. When he gets into tropic talk he is very very good.
568. wxmod
Ship circus. Visible satellite photo.

Damn. Palm Beach Weather was cool. I hope both a speedy return.

Meanwhile, anticipation just continues to build for this snow. Got a brand new snow brush for the car. Though not dreading the commute because my work is just around the corner. I have done everything to be prepared for this. Mother Nature BETTER NOT LET ME DOWN!!!
Hi Stormchaser43, too much "self promotion" from him?
Well Good evening all. Time to head home, almost. I guess Nea and PalmBeach were banned. Sorry I missed the dialogue. It does surprise me when people are offended by Nea's tone. It can be condescending, abrupt, sarcastic, but I don't remember him "attacking" anyone unless he/she has been attacked. And then he/she defends his/her self real well. I wonder if Nea is the same in person. Must own his/her own business. Anyway, those are my thoughts. Have a good one and I will see you in the morning.
Quoting wxmod:
Visible satellite photo of the Pacific.



Mm.

You know, way back in the fifties, there had been only scant talk of global warming... I think there was some but I would be hard pressed to find reference to it.

Well, there WAS one ... a fellow named Dr. Edward Teller suggest spraying metals in the atmosphere to 'prevent a global warming'. Seems a bit odd, as he wasn't an ecology-type ... he was the lead man in making hydrogen bombs. As a matter of fact, they had just touched one off in the South Pacific and golly-gosh, it blew out some of the primitive electronics way up in Hawaii. It turns out that that whole 'Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) thing was a good deal stronger than they expected.

Hmm... this could prove to be a real security risk, as the Ruskies had the bomb too. My my. What to do! No idea! But if we spray metals in the air, we can say it is about global warming! (and thus keep the peeps in the dark about this high security threat.) Never mind whether stuff like barium and bismuth might damp or reflect EMP events.

But I don't know. I read it on a website somewheres.
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Stormchaser43, too much "self promotion" from him?

What do you mean?
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Potent South Snowstorm and East Central mess



click image for larger view...not to pat myself on the back but this map looks amazing!!!
Before I retired to the mountains of Panama, I lived in Northern California (Sonoma County). I enjoyed going to the coast to watch the waves when there were big, long-period swells coming in.

I used the stormsurfing.com animation to track winter storms as they crossed the northern Pacific, and could get a pretty good idea of when to head to the coast for 15 foot plus swells. If you freeze the first frame, you can see the 50 foot wave forecast contour line.

I then used the surfer site "magicseaweed.com" to hone on in on the details for local beaches.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Potent South Snowstorm and East Central mess



click image for larger view...not to pat myself on the back but this map look amazing!!!


Did you make that make yourself? You have quite the talent. I'm guessing your live in the area too???
577. VR46L
Quoting stormchaser43:
What happened to Neapolitan. I had a couple of questions for him. I go to find his blog, and it said it is banned?? Link

Why? What did he do?


Well I can think of one reason read back about 90 comments
I see everyone is in a good mood today.

Quoting VR46L:


Well I can think of one reason read back about 80 comments


I see. Got quite ugly in here. Tensions flare. That's life. I'm sure nothing that can't be ironed out with a temporary time-out...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
A winter storm watch for black ice is......kind of dumb.


Does sound dumb, but some road surfaces are especially prone to developing black ice... which you totally can not see from you car. I believe the 'ice' is condensate from auto exhaust in part.

One time I watched a woman go zooming past me at about 75 on interstate 390. A police car had been sitting off to the side with his lights flashing for no obvious reason. The interstate was nearly empty.... it was about 10 AM. She was about 3/4 of a mile ahead of me when the road just gave way on her... she didn't break at all to precipitate the event... the road was suddenly 'not there' for her... and she went into a wild spin, just like a top. She went straight ahead all the same and as the road was straight, she simply came to a stop right in the middle of it, after rotating about 4 times.... and she was facing me directly as I approached (now down to about 25 MPH). She was in such shock that I had to flash my lights to bring her out of trance, which presently she was. Bet she wore pampers for her winter driving after that!

So, black ice is a real and nasty danger. If it is predicted for your area, really really really try to stay off the road!
Quoting stormchaser43:

Happy Birthday to you!!


Thank you!!!
Stormchaser43, post #573, I mean, wasn't he promoting some kind of "APP" he was working on? I may be way off base here.
What happened to Nea? What did he do to cause a ban?

WunderGirl12
Quoting stormchaser43:


Did you make that make yourself? You have quite the talent. I'm guessing your live in the area too???


100% of it is my creation... no I don't live anywhere in the color shades... Im in NYC
Quoting auburn:


Thank you!!!

NP. :0)
18z GFS running--increased snowfall..


12z
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Potent South Snowstorm and East Central mess



click image for larger view...not to pat myself on the back but this map looks amazing!!!


36hr NAM Winter 4 Panel Plot

Quoting originalLT:
Stormchaser43, post #573, I mean, wasn't he promoting some kind of "APP" he was working on? I may be way off base here.


No, all he said was he was going to roll one out tomorrow. He didn't mention the name or specifics. No promoting from what I saw. But I could be wrong.

I guess his comments are missing so I don't know for sure, LT. Oh well.
589. wxmod
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Mm.

You know, way back in the fifties, there had been only scant talk of global warming... I think there was some but I would be hard pressed to find reference to it.

Well, there WAS one ... a fellow named Dr. Edward Teller suggest spraying metals in the atmosphere to 'prevent a global warming'. Seems a bit odd, as he wasn't an ecology-type ... he was the lead man in making hydrogen bombs. As a matter of fact, they had just touched one off in the South Pacific and golly-gosh, it blew out some of the primitive electronics way up in Hawaii. It turns out that that whole 'Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) thing was a good deal stronger than they expected.

Hmm... this could prove to be a real security risk, as the Ruskies had the bomb too. My my. What to do! No idea! But if we spray metals in the air, we can say it is about global warming! (and thus keep the peeps in the dark about this high security threat.) Never mind whether stuff like barium and bismuth might damp or reflect EMP events.

But I don't know. I read it on a website somewheres.


I'm sure every single security agency and water-power industry has a reason to test atmospheric metals ideas. It's not what Russia or China might do to us that is the ultimate problem for the USA. It's what we ultimately do to ourselves.
I keep showing satellite photos of China polluting itself into oblivion. That can happen here too. There comes a time when you cant fire the new weapon at your enemy, cause it blows you up too.
Be Back Later - Everyone Behave - Hey Gro.....
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


100% of it is my creation... no I don't live anywhere in the color shades... Im in NYC


Great job. Very colorful but very easy to read and understand at the same time!!

Okay. Well no snow for you!! That could be a good or bad thing right. :)
Quoting LargoFl:
Snow tires and radial tires are different in their construction, with snow tires better able to adapt to snow and ice conditions. Although radial tires have come an awful long way due to their enhanced safety, there are still reasons to buy snow tires for your vehicle. What's also important is what part of the country you reside in.

Driving in wintry conditions poses some serious challenges, namely, is your vehicle going to hold the road! We all know how difficult it is to drive on icy roads, and damn near impossible to control your vehicle on black ice. Black ice is the condition when just a fine layer of invisible ice coats the road, and is as slippery as Teflon! If you encounter conditions where there is a lot of bad weather and dangerous road conditions, it's advisable to invest in a set of snow tires
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Do they still allow studded snow tires. I know my Mom always used them... then she would have to get them off before a certian date. They work on ice!



Even those aren't much good on black ice .... better than summer tires, of course, but we are talking driving on what amounts to wet greased ice. It is a very thin layer but as slick as roads ever get!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


oh its VERY dangerous, but this is a winter storm watch for liquid freezing on roads.
They could just wait and then issue an advisory.
It's really not necessary IMO. I can't remember them ever doing it here before either.


Back in the olden days they used to have a warning they would issue called a "Travelers' Advisory" but I haven't seen such like in a long long time. It would be the perfect thing for black ice.
Quoting nymore:
thanks for the map
No prob. Here's the link to WaveWatchIII, where I'm guessing the same data was used to produce the first image you posted (since WWIII is the only publicly available globe wave model).

Unfortunately, the scale on their site peaks out at 15 meters. You'd need someone like Levi to create a script for the data to visualize whats going on beyond the 15 meter point.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Back in the olden days they used to have a warning they would issue called a "Travelers' Advisory" but I haven't seen such like in a long long time. It would be the perfect thing for black ice.
I believe they call it a Winter Weather Advisory now
Quoting stormchaser43:


Great job. Very colorful but very easy to read and understand at the same time!!

Okay. Well no snow for you!! That could be a good or bad thing right. :)


I had 2" of snow from "Helen" today...

outside the window view...


click pic for larger view..
Quoting PedleyCA:
Be Back Later - Everyone Behave - Hey Gro.....


Hey, Grasshopper!
can anyone tell me what's up with today's Google???
Okay,,

Who is in charge here,...

Hmmmm?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Potent South Snowstorm and East Central mess



click image for larger view...not to pat myself on the back but this map looks amazing!!!
I would get trace to 2" over Raleigh, but that's my opinion.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I had 2" of snow from "Helen" today...

outside the window view...


click pic for larger view..

Good pic. Now you won't feel left out! Too bad it probably won't stick around very long. I see mid 40's in your weekend forecast...
Quoting Grothar:
I see everyone is in a good mood today.



Hi Grothar. I was wondering when your nap time was going to be up. Are the geckos still out sunning?
Quoting ncstorm:
18z GFS running--increased snowfall..


12z

NWS Raleigh is thinking 1"(east)to 4"(west) with locally higher amounts. As is the case with these type systems, there is a fine line between rain and snow. This one looks to be coming together better all the time.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I would get trace to 2" over Raleigh, but that's my opinion.


sure....im still working on it... I have to draw a rain/snow mix shade for AL/GA and sure...I'll expand it,
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Of course these kinds of blocks could happen without climate having changed due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. As such, it is virtually impossible to tie that specific Arctic sea ice anomaly directly through the steps to Sandy making landfall as it did. But if these kinds of blocks become more common, the magnitude and frequency of Sandy-like events over periods of time could be changing. That's the distinction that always seems to confuse people.

Quoting Levi32:


Your argument could be valid except that it is still theoretical. Unless it can be shown that there is a long-term increase in the probability of Sandy-like storm tracks in the western Atlantic, and it is correlated with arctic temperature/500mb height, your conclusion is just a hypothesis. Given that Sandy-like storms are so rare as it is, we don't even have more than a couple of events in the current dataset, making a probability analysis impossible at this time.
I don't need to sit around and wait for more Sandy-like storms, the proof is already here. Take a good look at these two images..

SSTs Correlated with the AO




AO Correlated with 500mb Heights





For those unaware: The strength of the correlation is measure by the numerical value. The closer the value is to 1 (-1) the stronger the positive (negative) correlation is. For those unaware, a negative correlation does not mean two variables do not correlate, it just means they correlate with the opposite phase. As an example, Atlantic hurricanes have a negative correlation with the ENSO. When the ENSO is in its positive phase, Atlantic hurricane activity diminishes. Another example might be ridging having a negative correlation with precipitation anomalies. When we have positive height anomalies in the area (ridging), we see negative precipitation anomalies (less precip).

...

As shown in the first image, SSTs around Greenland have a strong negative correlation with the AO. This means that when SSTs are anomalously warm around Greenland the negative phase of the AO is favored. In the second image we see that the AO is very strongly negatively correlated with 500mb heights over Greenland. This means that when the AO is negative, very often 500mb heights over Greenland are anomalously high. Therefore, SSTs around Greenland are positively correlated to 500mb heights around Greenland. This means when SSTs around Greenland are anomalously warm, anomalous blocking is favored around Greenland.

Thus, should the Arctic continue to warm, we would expect more high-latitude blocking. Since odd and irregular jet patterns are a symptom of blocking, blocking would certainly favor more odd, irregular, Sandy-like storm tracks. In other words, warmer SSTs around Greenland (presumably brought on by GW) favors blocking around Greenland, which leads to odd and irregular storm tracks. The images above are proof of this correlation.


...


Now I know this is not enough evidence to form the basis of a friggen scientific paper, but the correlation is clear. Anyone who denies the correlation is literally in denial. If you two would like to sit around and wait for more Sandy-like storms to "officially" determine the extent of the correlation, be my guest.

Also, Levi, I'm surprised the theory of this isn't enough for you. When you correlate ridging in SE Canada (or south of the Hudson Bay) to US landfalls in your tropical tidbit videos, you are doing the same thing I am doing here...sure they aren't official correlations, but we both admit that the correlation is there and has a very real influence on the storm track.
Quoting Patrap:
Okay,,

Who is in charge here,...

Hmmmm?


Shhhhhhhh! You will wake Grothar's geckos.

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hi Grothar. I was wondering when your nap time was going to be up. Are the geckos still out sunning?


It looks like they are getting ready for a little cold snap this week. Today was the 15th consecutive day over 80 deg in January, which was a record, I believe.
Quoting Chapelhill:

NWS Raleigh is thinking 1"(east)to 4"(west) with locally higher amounts. As is the case with these type systems, there is a fine line between rain and snow. This one looks to be coming together better all the time.


I said this morning that the last time it snowed here, they only predicted a dusting for my area and we ended up with over 6 inches of snow..depends on timing and tracking..
NOAA is very specific on the Climate Change indicators page on how Storms are changing. We who live in the High impact areas,of repetitive decadel oscillations have seen it.

A warming Planet will become even mo' evident as we descend into the new atmospheric experiment we are causing.

I roll with the Pro's,or the ones with PHD's u could say.



Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center




Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.
Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

Quoting Chapelhill:

NWS Raleigh is thinking 1"(east)to 4"(west) with locally higher amounts. As is the case with these type systems, there is a fine line between rain and snow. This one looks to be coming together better all the time.




Winter Storm Watch, Jackson,Miss


Winter Storm Watch
Statement as of 1:10 PM CST on January 16, 2013

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from midnight CST tonight through
Thursday morning...

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Winter Storm
Watch... which is in effect from midnight tonight through Thursday
morning.

* Timing: snow is expected to begin falling over the watch area after
midnight tonight and persist into at least mid morning Thursday.

* Main impact: snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

* Other impacts: snow accumulation is expected primarily on grassy
and elevated surfaces. While widespread travel problems are not
currently expected due to already wet roads... in locations that
experience higher snowfall rates... a slush could develop on local
bridges and overpasses which could make driving across them
treacherous.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
<----is debating a Road Trip up 55 to Jackson for the event.

Pics and video and a overnight Stay at the Motel is a good bet
I heard its very hard to track these cold core systems. They call for a trace you get half a foot. lol!!!
That storm is too far offshore for any NE impacts...right?

Also, look at that low north of Hawaii


look where it ends up... could it become something?

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
That storm is too far offshore for any NE impacts...right?


...Sure. Other than gusty winds and several inches of snow.

U.S. Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios


In early January, NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, NCDC’s parent organization, released a Technical Report covering an analysis of historical climate trends and climate scenarios of the future for eight U.S. regions as well as one for the contiguous United States. Technical Report 142 is comprised of nine parts—142-1 through 142-9—each of which represents a more complete and targeted synthesis of historical and emission-dependent future climate conditions around the specific regions of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). There are two components of these descriptions. One component is a description of the historical climate conditions in the region. The other component is a description of the climate conditions associated with two future pathways of greenhouse gas emissions based on IPCC emission scenarios. As part of a sustained assessment approach, it is intended that these documents will be updated as new and well-vetted model results are available and as new climate emission scenarios become available
Quoting TomTaylor:
The images above are proof of this correlation.

...

Now I know this is not enough evidence to form the basis of a... scientific paper, but the correlation is clear. Anyone who denies the correlation is literally in denial.

Or perhaps instead, they are being scientists who are, by their very nature, skeptical, requiring the preponderance of evidence to continue suggesting something to be true. You may have a mechanism by which warmer sea surface temperatures near Greenland may increase the likelihood of Sandy-like storm tracks, but "images are proof" or not, it's not strong enough evidence until analyzed further.
Take a step back, do the science.
1. Start with the warmer SSTs near Greenland. Show empirical evidence that episodes of warm SSTs are becoming more frequent and lasting longer (probably not hard to do). Define boundaries of the area in question, calculate the mean aerial value or create an index.
2. Show empirical evidence of how often we see the AO values follow with the SSTs for your defined study area near Greenland (probably not too hard to do, either).
3. Correlate the AO condition to the block and how often they both happen the way your hypothesis suggests.

A "____ paper" is how something is shown to be true in science, so yes, it does take one to "prove it."
It is quite possible that there is merit to your hypothesis, and certainly evidence is strong that day-to-day weather patterns are not as they would have been without the enhanced greenhouse effect. But it's not proof just because two images show something happening at the same time.
Wunderground's Climate Change Position

Earth's climate is warming. This time, humans are mostly responsible, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
Climate Change

A scientific look at global change.


www.wunderground.com/climate Climate Change Evidence At A Glance
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...Sure. Other than gusty winds and several inches of snow.


don't see any Cod...
I'm Back... Nasty accident on the main road by my house. It is a divided highway with a median with trees and a drainage ditch. About a mile of it is closed down in both directions to investigate the crash. Saw a pickup truck all smashed in the median up at the other end of the closure and a major traffic backup. They are funneling all the cars onto a frontage road and they are getting around that Westbound. Going East is more complicated as it through a residential area. This might be closed for awhile. Couldn't find anything on the traffic sites as it isn't on the freeway. Nothing on the CHP site. Hate that when no one knows what is going on. lol
Weekly Weather Roundup Video Blog

January 5 - January 11: Intense heat in Australia and a mysterious sonic boom
Posted by: Wunder Video Blog, 1:00 AM CST on January 12, 2013

The Weekly Weather Roundup for January 5 - January 11 features Winter Storm Gandolf in the North and Midwest, heavy rain in the Southeast, and intense heat in Australia. Also, a mysterious sonic boom in Utah. Watch and see!


VIDEO
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
That storm is too far offshore for any NE impacts...right?


Unfortunately, yes. Just some cold, maybe ocean effect snow showers at the coast, and possibly some accumulating snow on Cape Cod and Nantucket.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't need to sit around and wait for more Sandy-like storms, the proof is already here. Take a good look at these two images..

...
...

Also, Levi, I'm surprised the theory of this isn't enough for you. When you correlate ridging in SE Canada (or south of the Hudson Bay) to US landfalls in your tropical tidbit videos, you are doing the same thing I am doing here...sure they aren't official correlations, but we both admit that the correlation is there and has a very real influence on the storm track.


You apparently missed my point. I have no argument at all with the fact that warm SSTs north of the Gulf Stream and a negative AO correlate with Greenland blocking. The point was that there is no way to show (yet) that the recent increase in the frequency of arctic blocking has caused a change in the tracks of tropical cyclones recurving near the eastern seaboard of the United States.

It's not clean-cut as you would like to think. Ok, so there's more blocking, but what does that mean? In a general sense, it means lower heights farther south, but where farther south? The negative AO phase can put those lower heights just about anywhere around the blocking high. It doesn't have to be over the Great Lakes. It could be in Europe instead, and then have a connecting ridge to the block over the eastern US instead of a trough. Also, the blocking could just be too far north to appreciably affect storm tracks south of 40N. Unless there are enough events in the database to run a probability analysis, we simply can't draw the conclusion that Sandy-like storm tracks are becoming more common because of arctic blocking.

The distinction here is that Sandy-like events are so rare that they are difficult to analyze statistically. If you take the set of all known U.S. landfalling storms, you can indeed do analysis on that. If you take the set of Sandy-like storm tracks, you suddenly have next to nothing to work with.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Unfortunately, yes. Just some cold, maybe ocean effect snow showers at the coast, and possibly some accumulating snow on Cape Cod and Nantucket.

I think you guys are confused. That low pressure system off the coast in 42 hours is the one that will be bringing the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast gusty winds and several inches of snow over the next few days.
Kill that post please Pat!

TIA.
Here's my thought on tomorrow's event:



It depends on elevation how much the area in Western NC will get. I could see couple of area reporting over a foot of snow there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think you guys are confused. That low pressure system off the coast in 42 hours is the one that will be bringing the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast gusty winds and several inches of snow over the next few days.


yes heavy snow/winds... not for NYC/CT...maybe Long Island Eastern Mass and Nantucket...


The low is too far south for any snow in NYC/CY/RI and Mass.. (Nantucket could get some)...they are talking about a northward shift, if it happens then yes big snow for everyone...
Try da HIDE feature.

Itsa keepa'
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think you guys are confused. That low pressure system off the coast in 42 hours is the one that will be bringing the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast gusty winds and several inches of snow over the next few days.

Mid-Atlantic for sure gets snow out of this one, and probably quite a bit, but too far out to sea for the NE:



Quoting Patrap:
Try da HIDE feature.

Itsa keepa'


It resets on page refresh, Pat. Autoplay videos are rather annoying, I must say.
I'll send wunderyakuza "aaron" a ticket on the EMBED refresh issue
Quoting Levi32:


It resets on page refresh, Pat. Autoplay videos are rather annoying, I must say.


Me annoying someone from Alaska and Fla?

Say it ain't so.

LOL
Remove the video..plain and simple..its not like you dont know because people have complain about the videos before..just trollish to still keep posting them
39F outside here in Mid City,NOLA
Quoting Levi32:


It resets on page refresh, Pat. Autoplay videos are rather annoying, I must say.


yeah...it's bothering me too now..
Once the Hide is clicked it doesn't reset anymore. But that is an extra chore to do. Might have to explain that to a few. Well 13 make that 12 more entries and it is moot.
Edit, right I know I can't count, make it 11...... :p
NYC NWS office wx disc...

A STRENGTHENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODELS BRUSHING PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
OVER PART OF OUR WATERS AND INTO SE LONG ISLAND...AND CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...BUT THERE
COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE CITY WITH ANYTHING
THAT FALLS DURING THE EARLIER EVENING HOURS. NO ADVISORIES POSTED AT
THIS TIME AS NO WIDESPREAD 3 INCH SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. WITH
THIS BEING A POTENTIAL LATE 3RD PERIOD EVENT...WILL LET THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL SUITE TO LOOK FOR ANY
FARTHER NORTHWARD TREND OF THE QPF FIELD.
TomTaylor - It's also worth noting that blocking over a mid-latitude belt like the Great Lakes (~45N) is not the same as blocking over the polar region (~60-70N or greater). When I speak of Great Lakes / SE Canada blocking in the summer, it is not necessarily influenced by the phase of the northern annular mode. The blocking you speak of, though, is, to a much greater degree.
#624 was changed to a LINK over 9 minutes ago.

We will see that issue addressed.

Its a new Feature.


Bear with the site on those issues,...
644. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:
Once the Hide is clicked it doesn't reset anymore. But that is an extra chore to do. Might have to explain that to a few. Well 13 make that 12 more entries and it is moot.


unless you have your page set at 100 or 200 comments mine is at 100
Roanoke, VA is getting over 1" of rain before the 4-8" snow???

If there wasn't any rain...they could have been getting way over a foot... interesting but hard forecast
Quoting VR46L:


unless you have your page set at 100 or 200 comments mine is at 100


Good Point, mine is set to 50, my bad!!!!
50 is the default setting as the re load time for 100 and higher is distracting, esp in "cane" mode or other severe event.
I bet this storm will be named IAGO...

Brandon,Mississippi
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I bet this storm will be named IAGO...


The storm already has a name...Helen.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The storm already has a name...Helen.


nope... that one is over... you know better than this Cody
Helen of Troy maybe?

Quoting Patrap:
NOAA is very specific on the Climate Change indicators page on how Storms are changing. We who live in the High impact areas,of repetitive decadel oscillations have seen it.

A warming Planet will become even mo' evident as we descend into the new atmospheric experiment we are causing.

I roll with the Pro's,or the ones with PHD's u could say.



Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center




Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.
Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.



Wow!!!!!!! This graphic scares me
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The storm already has a name...Helen.


Actually, it doesn't have name or I would've seen the name on Weather Channel graphics on this page:

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter -storm-south-mid-atlantic-20130116
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


nope... that one is over... you know better than this Cody

Then yeah, you're right, this will probably be named.
Quoting Patrap:
A Bad dream or Nightmare for Boeing.

787 Grounded: FAA Orders Airlines To Park Dreamliners Over Safety Concerns
Posted: 01/16/2013 6:35 pm EST



I think Boeing will quickly go to a different battery supplier ..
Quoting Levi32:


You apparently missed my point. I have no argument at all with the fact that warm SSTs north of the Gulf Stream and a negative AO correlate with Greenland blocking. The point was that there is no way to show (yet) that the recent increase in the frequency of arctic blocking has caused a change in the tracks of tropical cyclones recurving near the eastern seaboard of the United States.

It's not clean-cut as you would like to think. Ok, so there's more blocking, but what does that mean? In a general sense, it means lower heights farther south, but where farther south? The negative AO phase can put those lower heights just about anywhere around the blocking high. It doesn't have to be over the Great Lakes. It could be in Europe instead, and then have a connecting ridge to the block over the eastern US instead of a trough. Also, the blocking could just be too far north to appreciably affect storm tracks south of 40N. Unless there are enough events in the database to run a probability analysis, we simply can't draw the conclusion that Sandy-like storm tracks are becoming more common because of arctic blocking.

The distinction here is that Sandy-like events are so rare that they are difficult to analyze statistically. If you take the set of all known U.S. landfalling storms, you can indeed do analysis on that. If you take the set of Sandy-like storm tracks, you suddenly have next to nothing to work with.
Apparently I did miss your point because the point i was trying to make was that Arctic warming would favor more blocking which would favor more irregular tracks, though not necessarily (but likely) Sandy tracks.
Quoting stormchaser19:


Wow!!!!!!! This graphic scares me




Also remember, all the Global Climate Models have underplayed the warming.


We are terraforming the Planet in ways we're just coming to Grips with.

And the political winds seem to be finally shifting to, "Hmmm,maybe we should take some action to remedy the problem".


But unless we find some quick ways to reduce the daily giga-tonnes of Co2 and other polluants, well..expect the reality of our situ to be reflected in that depressing graph.
WIll be up for the new model runs...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WIll be up for the new model runs...

Stop looking at Sports Illustrated and Victoria's Secret. LOL

Morning all, Did I miss anything?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Stop looking at Sports Illustrated and Victoria's Secret. LOL

Morning all, Did I miss anything?


lol.... i liked that one...

Hi Aussie...nice to have you here
Quoting AussieStorm:

Stop looking at Sports Illustrated and Victoria's Secret. LOL

Morning all, Did I miss anything?

Everybody in Mid-Atlantic is excited for first snowstorm of 2013 :) I'm not too excited about having an inch of snow while the others get 3 to 6 inches of snow, though...
Quoting JNCali:
Our first ice storm since moving to Mid TN...

FB Image no show.. will upload to wu profile :(

To post photo's from FB or Twitter. In the address line, remove the s in the https:// and just make it http://
It works for me.
Quoting Bluestorm5:

Everybody in Mid-Atlantic is excited for first snowstorm of 2013 :) I'm not too excited about having an inch of snow while the others get 3 to 6 inches of snow, though...


where are you at?
Quoting Bluestorm5:

Everybody in Mid-Atlantic is excited for first snowstorm of 2013 :) I'm not too excited about having an inch of snow while the others get 3 to 6 inches of snow, though...

You want more snow?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


lol.... i liked that one...

Hi Aussie...nice to have you here


sandshoes (that's what my daughter says)
Quoting AussieStorm:

You want more snow?
Who doesn't? lol :)
While we're talking about this, I too believe that increased blocking over Greenland in recent years may be enhancing an upstream east coast trough, although there is not yet any solid evidence of this, as Levi says. Sandy could have just been an anomaly, and we lack a lot of datasets comprising storms with similar tracks because there are none. So all this talk of global warming and Sandy seems a little ridiculous for now. Besides, wasn't 2008 another record melting year for the Arctic, which would seem to imply a blocking high over Greenland again? Yet we had three tropical storms and three hurricanes hit the United States that year.

tl;dr: It may sound good on paper to say that increased Arctic blocking is creating more frequent recurvatures, but for now it's just a fanciful idea that can appease the mind. We like to rationalize things. As of yet though, there is little evidence supporting that hypothesis.
Sydney's working week to end with a scorcher

Sydney-siders will be flocking to the beaches and cranking up their air conditioners with a brief burst of heat for the end of the working week.

A low pressure trough sweeping across southern Australia is drawing a hot airmass into eastern NSW today, causing temperatures to climb.

On Thursday western parts of Sydney are expected to reach the high 30s, with 38 degrees in Penrith and Richmond. For Penrith this would make it the eighth day this month it has exceeded 35 degrees.

For the city and suburbs in the east the mercury should max out in the high 20s or low 30s due to a cooling sea breeze.

Friday is going to be the hottest day as winds tend northwesterly and the hot airmass peaks. On this day, the westerlies may hold out the sea breeze, allowing the city to warm to the high 30s, while the west hits the low 40s.

The extreme heat and dry northwesterly winds will also exacerbate the fire danger across New South Wales, including in Sydney, so residents should keep an eye on the weather and any fire weather warnings.

Cloud will build later on Friday ahead of the trough, which is expected to arrive between 8pm and 11pm causing winds to tend southerly. These southerly winds will be strong and gusty, bringing a drop in temperatures and relief to hot and bothered locals.

The trough also brings a risk of showers and thunderstorms, most likely during Friday afternoon and evening. Cooler, mostly cloudy days and showers are expected over the weekend, with maximum temperatures in the mid 20s across the Sydney Basin.


© Weatherzone 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Stop looking at Sports Illustrated and Victoria's Secret. LOL

Morning all, Did I miss anything?


I never thought of those models in all my 6 years of weather adventures.... to be honest...
Quoting Patrap:




Also remember, all the Global Climate Models have underplayed the warming.


We are terraforming the Planet in ways we're just coming to Grips with.

And the political winds seem to be finally shifting to, "Hmmm,maybe we should take some action to remedy the problem".


But unless we find some quick ways to reduce the daily giga-tonnes of Co2 and other polluants, well..expect the reality of our situ to be reflected in that depressing graph.


That doesn't seem so recently. This is a plot I threw together quickly ~15 months ago, comparing the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble mean global temperature anomaly to the UAH global temperature anomaly since 2001. The UAH anomalies were recalculated to be relative to the 1980-1999 mean, same as the AR4 models.

I think it's pretty clear the models aren't "underplaying" the warming, at least recently. In fact, there's a fairly conclusive "overplaying" evident in the last decade. Now if the flattening in the global temperature trend is due to natural causes, to me this calls into question the AR4 models' ability to capture short-term natural variability. They must be able to do this, or the modeled anthropogenic contribution to the global temperature may also be questionable.

Click for full size.



AR4 Data Source

UAH Data Source

I'll be back in like 3 hrs or so...gotta do some errands (not really)
I'll have my map for the sow/rain forecast for the south and central eastern US... from (soon to be IAGO )[don't care really])
NSW with temp and wind direction shown.

This is a test!!! In order to insure Grothar doesn't forget his bookmarks, he will run these once a month.


You guys enjoy your snow, I haven't seen snow on the ground since March 2007, and not seen it accumulate in any measure in ten years.
I must digress Levi,,and stand by my statement that I run with the Phd's.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?
The El Nino/La Nina cycle causes cyclical changes in global temperatures that average out close to zero over the course of several decades. La Nina events bring a large amount of cold water to the surface in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, which cools global temperatures by up to 0.2C. El Nino events have the opposite effect. During 2012, a weak La Nina event was present through March. Warming of the Eastern Pacific waters in the spring brought on neutral conditions, which lasted for the remainder of the year. The year 2012 was the warmest year on record when a La Nina event was present, surpassing the previous record set just the year before, in 2011. Global temperatures were 0.09C (0.16F) cooler than the record warmest year for the planet (2010), and 2012 would very likely have been the warmest on record had an El Nino event been present instead of a La Nina, as seen by looking at the year-to-date global temperature plot for 2012.


Nice scaling and colors though.

I give it a er, "C"

: )
Quoting Patrap:
I must digress levi,,and stand by my statement that I run with the Phd's.

Nice scaling and colors though.

I give it a er, "C"


Well, you didn't source the "underplaying" comment, so I have no basis to compare with. I'm just plotting the data published by the Ph.D.'s.
Quoting Patrap:
I must digress Levi,,and stand by my statement that I run with the Phd's.

How much of the warming in recent decades is due to natural causes?.

I give it a er, "C"
Do you feel like you are caught in a Texas hailstorm. LOL

Hoisted by your own petard

Come on now show the sources for your data, Levi showed his

Climate Progress from over a year ago. Do you have an actual data source?
A good 101 for the audience Globally.


Feel free to chime in after.


Quoting ScottLincoln:

Or perhaps instead, they are being scientists who are, by their very nature, skeptical, requiring the preponderance of evidence to continue suggesting something to be true. You may have a mechanism by which warmer sea surface temperatures near Greenland may increase the likelihood of Sandy-like storm tracks, but "images are proof" or not, it's not strong enough evidence until analyzed further.
Take a step back, do the science.
1. Start with the warmer SSTs near Greenland. Show empirical evidence that episodes of warm SSTs are becoming more frequent and lasting longer (probably not hard to do). Define boundaries of the area in question, calculate the mean aerial value or create an index.
2. Show empirical evidence of how often we see the AO values follow with the SSTs for your defined study area near Greenland (probably not too hard to do, either).
3. Correlate the AO condition to the block and how often they both happen the way your hypothesis suggests.

A "____ paper" is how something is shown to be true in science, so yes, it does take one to "prove it."
It is quite possible that there is merit to your hypothesis, and certainly evidence is strong that day-to-day weather patterns are not as they would have been without the enhanced greenhouse effect. But it's not proof just because two images show something happening at the same time.
The link between anomalously warm Arctic temperatures and anomalous high-latitude blocking is a given. Those images show that. Higher frequency of blocking would favor more erratic, irregular, and unusual storm tracks. That is simply common sense. The only question that remains is would a higher frequency of blocking specifically favor Sandy-like tracks?

Given that Sandy's track was irregular and unusual, a higher frequency of high-latitude blocking would most likely increase the odds. However, to definitively determine that, we'd need to wait for more tracks of Sandy's type.
No. As many often complain about on this forum, let's not have blogging websites as "sources." Furthermore, let's not have arctic sea ice graphs as replacements for global temperature graphs.

I would be interested in a scientific publication (i.e. paper) that shows the underplaying of 21st-century warming so far by IPCC AR4 GCMs.
If this were taking place in a parking lot, I would have to call the fight to save the guy from NOLA from getting anymore damage done to him.

Reminds me of some of the old Tyson fights it was ugly and over quick.
Quoting Levi32:
No. As many often complain about on this forum, let's not have blogging websites as "sources." Furthermore, let's not have arctic sea ice graphs as replacements for global temperature graphs.

I would be interested in a scientific publication (i.e. paper) that shows the underplaying of 21st-century warming so far by IPCC AR4 GCMs.


No problems,the data sets are complete and many exist as published material

Your comeuppance of denial always triggers your angst.

Maybe try some chats with Dr. Rood or others.


Im jus a NOLA Gnome really.



Quoting TomTaylor:
The link between anomalously warm Arctic temperatures and anomalous high-latitude blocking is a given. Those images show that. Higher frequency of blocking would favor more erratic, irregular, and unusual storm tracks. That is simply common sense. The only question that remains is would a higher frequency of blocking specifically favor Sandy-like tracks?

Given that Sandy's track was irregular and unusual, higher frequency of high-latitude blocking would most likely increase the odds. However, to officially determine that, we'd need to wait for more tracks of Sandy's type.



Though, as I pointed out earlier, the position of the blocking matters, and blocking associated with the -AO or -NAO is usually quite far to the north, and may or may not actually exert a significant influence on TC tracks in the Atlantic. Again, as an example, if the blocking is too far north, there can be troughing and a jetstream underneath that allows storms to recurve northeastward like normal, despite a large amount of blocking.

Potentially missed problems with a theory are why they must be tested.
Reading the current entry is always a good starting point.

Every Gnome know's dat.


A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010, took these five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets.
685.

Well, it was your claim, so it's your burden to cite it. I made an observation regarding that claim and cited my sources. If you don't have the time to do the same right now, that's fine, but that burden is not on my shoulders.
Well,been phun as always.

We off up I-55 to Jackson to meet da snow line.

In da werds of a Famous Ding Dong.

Ciao'

Quoting Levi32:
No. As many often complain about on this forum, let's not have blogging websites as "sources." Furthermore, let's not have arctic sea ice graphs as replacements for global temperature graphs.

I would be interested in a scientific publication (i.e. paper) that shows the underplaying of 21st-century warming so far by IPCC AR4 GCMs.
You're right; Arctic sea ice graphs should be enough for most people to realize that we have a problem on our hands.

PIOMAS Ice Volume




PIOMAS Ice Volume Projections





Clearly global temperatures are going up, though they have leveled off a bit recently. Clearly man has some influence on the climate, though it is hard to say how much. Clearly we have a serious problem in the Arctic. Clearly something should be done.
Everyone have a beer.Drinks on me.Anyway looking forward to that oh familiar stranger that's paying a visit...snow :).
Quoting Patrap:
Well,been phun as always.

We off up I-55 to Jackson to meet da snow line.

In da werds of a Famous Ding Dong.

Ciao'

Tucks tail between legs and leaves would be a better way to put it.
Quoting Levi32:



Though, as I pointed out earlier, the position of the blocking matters, and blocking associated with the -AO or -NAO is usually quite far to the north, and may or may not actually exert a significant influence on TC tracks in the Atlantic. Again, as an example, if the blocking is too far north, there can be troughing and a jetstream underneath that allows storms to recurve northeastward like normal, despite a large amount of blocking.

Potentially missed problems with a theory are why they must be tested.
The point is, in general, more blocking favors more irregular tracks. This is simply because a block is an anomaly in the height field. An anomaly in the height field will produce an anomaly in the pattern, producing anomalies in the steering, leading to anomalies in the track. No, not every block has a significant influence on track. But if we see more blocking in the North Atlantic (which makes sense because the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe), this would favor more anomalies in the storm track.

As proof that warmer Arctic leads to greater blocking around Greenland, look below. 500mb Heights from Jan-Dec 2000-2012 against the 1980-2010 average. Map shows that over the last decade or so, heights have been anomalously high in the Greenland region, like we saw with Sandy. The AMO is likely partially responsible for this, but similarly, Arctic warming and the AMO both influence temperatures and SSTs around Greenland, so in other words more Arctic warming around Greenland would favor more blocking over there. Since more Arctic warming favors more anomalous blocking around Greenland, the pattern itself becomes anomalous, favoring anomalous storm tracks.


Quoting Levi32:
No. As many often complain about on this forum, let's not have blogging websites as "sources." Furthermore, let's not have arctic sea ice graphs as replacements for global temperature graphs.

I would be interested in a scientific publication (i.e. paper) that shows the underplaying of 21st-century warming so far by IPCC AR4 GCMs.


warming is occurring
with ever faster and faster results
been more so since 2010 with events occuring
every 6 months to every few months
to every few weeks
to every couple of weeks
soon to be every week
then every other day
and finally every day
see where its going
Via Lappy toppy :

LOL

A banned blogger masking comments ....about a conversation he can only plus within his age group.


The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. The known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, and the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists agree that human activity is the primary cause of increasing global temperatures in recent decades.

Maybe stick to yer schtick in Dr. Roods entries sport

Jarheads never run.

We prove a point with overwhelming tact and well, "Facts."

AKA as da Truth as it exists.


Bloggers with experience and one handle here always get a laff from the ones that,

..well, u know.

comet ISON gif heading towards inner planets set to light the sky nov 2013
It begins in earnest, a tad ahead of forecast.




Quoting TomTaylor:
The point is, in general, more blocking favors more irregular tracks. This is simply because a block is an anomaly in the height field. An anomaly in the height field will produce an anomaly in the pattern, producing anomalies in the steering, leading to anomalies in the track. No, not every block has a significant influence on track. But if we see more blocking in the North Atlantic (which makes sense because the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe), this would favor more anomalies in the storm track.


I still submit it's not that simple. Every TC track is anomalous ("irregular") in some way or another. There is always an anomaly in the pattern.

The question here, specifically, is whether Sandy-like tracks, which I interpret to mean recurving, northward moving storms curving back to the NNW or NW in the western Atlantic, could increase due to a warming arctic.

You have put forth a theory that the resulting increase in blocking in the arctic can indeed cause more of these types of back-bending tracks. Looking at the 500mb height correlation against the NAO for July-October, the blocking is very confined to the Greenland region, quite far to the north, and based on the correlation map, one could even argue that a positive NAO generates more relevant blocking to cause back-bending TC tracks near the eastern seaboard. The positioning of arctic blocking due to sea ice melt has always been quite far north, making its potential influence on TC tracks in the tropics and subtropics pretty ambiguous, and potentially rather insignificant. Again, it is hard to know.

Quoting Levi32:


I still submit it's not that simple. Every TC track is anomalous ("irregular") in some way or another. There is always an anomaly in the pattern.

The question here, specifically, is whether Sandy-like tracks, which I interpret to mean recurving, northward moving storms curving back to the NNW or NW in the western Atlantic, could increase due to a warming arctic.

You have put forth a theory that the resulting increase in blocking in the arctic can indeed cause more of these types of back-bending tracks. Looking at the 500mb height correlation against the NAO for July-September, the blocking is very confined to the Greenland region, quite far to the north, and based on the correlation map, one could even argue that a positive NAO generates more relevant blocking to cause back-bending TC tracks near the eastern seaboard. The positioning of arctic blocking due to sea ice melt has always been quite far north, making its influence on TC tracks in the tropics and subtropics unknown, and potentially rather insignificant. Again, it is hard to know.

Wait, now you're going back to Sandy-like tracks lol.

I already agreed that we'd need to observe more storms of Sandy's track to conclude whether more blocking specifically favors that type of track.

MY point is that blocking in general favors anomalies in the pattern (well obviously, blocking is an anomaly). Anomalies in the pattern produce steering anomalies, causing track anomalies. That's just in general terms, I'm not looking at any specific storm track. Furthermore, if you don't like that explanation, more heat in the atmosphere = more entropy. Entropy can be loosely be described as chaos. Therefore, as the overall temperature of our atmosphere increases, things become increasingly erratic and chaotic.
Quoting Grothar:
This is a test!!! In order to insure Grothar doesn't forget his bookmarks, he will run these once a month.




Not to worry, Grothar. I have some spare bookmarks, if you need any.

701. wxmod
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/16/science/earth/b urning-fuel-particles-do-more-damage-to-climate-th an-thought-study-says.html?_r=0

Burning Fuel Particles Do More Damage to Climate Than Thought, Study Says
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL
Published: January 15, 2013


The tiny black particles released into the atmosphere by burning fuels are far more powerful agents of global warming than had previously been estimated, some of the world’s most prominent atmospheric scientists reported in a study issued on Tuesday.


... three times the previously estimated rate.
I think this is severely overdone but I would love for it to come true:
Quoting TomTaylor:
Wait, now you're going back to Sandy-like tracks lol.

I already agreed that we'd need to observe more storms of Sandy's track to conclude whether more blocking specifically favors that type of track.

MY point is that blocking in general favors anomalies in the pattern (well obviously, blocking is an anomaly). Anomalies in the pattern produce steering anomalies, causing track anomalies. That's just in general terms, I'm not looking at any specific storm track. Furthermore, if you don't like that explanation, more heat in the atmosphere = more entropy. Entropy can be loosely be described as chaos. Therefore, as the overall temperature of our atmosphere increases, things become increasingly erratic and chaotic.


Ok, I see where we veered off. Sure, it's rather obvious that anomalies in one parameter can propagate and cause anomalies in other parameters.

However, I'm not convinced that blocking at 60N and northward is likely to have a significant impact on TC tracks at 40N and southward. A study could certainly be done on it.

The entropy comment....well, change in entropy "dS" is dQ/T, so a change in the total heat content of the system and a change in the temperature of the system can both affect the entropy, and an increase in temperature lowers it, while an increase in total heat content raises it. I am not educated on the trends in entropy of the Earth-atmosphere system.
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a good chance of above average temperatures across the South for the 8-14 day period. That kind of interests me considering the ECMWF and GFS show average to even below average temperatures for much of the region.





705. wxmod
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a good chance of above average temperatures across the South for the 8-14 day period. That kind of interests me considering the ECMWF and GFS show average to even below average temperatures for much of the region.







Given how amplified the pattern has been over the lower 48 the last week or so, I am having a lot of difficulty believing such a dramatic upswing in temperatures. Also supported by the local NWS forecast for my area.
Quoting wxmod:

There is air pollution in China. We get it. How many days in a row are you going to post about it?
Levi32 and TomTaylor, I must say that I am enjoying the debate that you two are having. I am learning quite a bit from your exchanges.

Levi, you have already spent more time obtaining a formal education than I have were it concerns science related studies. Therefore I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?
709. wxmod
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is air pollution in China. We get it. How many days in a row are you going to post about it?


I just posted that black carbon soot is three times as problematic for global warming than had previously been reported. That was a photo of people breathing black carbon soot. See post 701
Quoting wxmod:


I just posted that black carbon soot is three times as problematic for global warming than had previously been reported. That was a photo of people breathing black carbon soot. See post 701

Gotcha.
I mentioned earlier that there was an accident by my house. Turns out it was 4 vehicles and there was one fatality, but little else has been forthcoming.

Crash
Quoting wxmod:


I just posted that black carbon soot is three times as problematic for global warming than had previously been reported. That was a photo of people breathing black carbon soot. See post 701


How do you know that they are ?? Pic could have been taken anywhere in the past ..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is air pollution in China. We get it. How many days in a row are you going to post about it?

Until someone complains about it. I think many people have that handle on there ignore list cause of there constant monomania on that one subject. I being one.

We know the Chinese Govt is killing it's own people by severely polluting the air they breathe, Call it's govt sanctioned genocide.
WNC has a lot of rain late yesterday. Flooding in Waynesville. Landslides & flooding in Jackson County..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM HEAVY RAIN MARION 35.68N 82.01W
01/15/2013 E0.00 INCH MCDOWELL NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** TREE WAS UPROOTED IN SATURATED
SOIL...FALLING ACROSS TWO VEHICLES. ONE OCCUPANT WAS
KILLED.


&&

$$

MCAVOY
I can't believe this jackass charges 10 K to speak.

Link


This pic taken by a commercial pilot shows the smoke plume from the Wambelong fire in Coonabarabran. We continue to think of those in western NSW still doing it tough as southern Australia faces its fourth burst of extreme heat and severe fire dangers from today. Courtesy of The Weather Channel Australia
WNC is expecting a few more inches of rain, and then SNOW!!!!!!

A landslide closed Hwy 441 in Swain Co.

Everything is very wet here. Looking forward to the SNOW!!!!!!!!!

Hope I didn't jinx it.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Levi32 and TomTaylor, I must say that I am enjoying the debate that you two are having. I am learning quite a bit from your exchanges.

Levi, you have already spent more time obtaining a formal education than I have were it concerns science related studies. Therefore I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?


Sorry, but if I have to answer this, it must be complete, because if I answer it in a short fashion, it leaves too much of my views to speculation.

CO2 has an infrared absorption band at about 15 micrometers. The Earth's surface emission spectrum peaks at about 10 micrometers and significantly encompasses 15 micrometer waves. Thus, CO2 does absorb energy output from the Earth's surface. Thus, changes in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere have an effect on the total internal energy of the atmosphere, which leads to an effect on the temperature of the atmosphere due to its limited ability to expand its volume.

However, everything changes everything in physics. If I decide to breath 10% faster for the rest of my life, that would affect the temperature of the atmosphere. The question is always how significant is the effect. In the case of my breathing, it is essentially zero. It is an amazingly complicated question to ask how much CO2 affects the atmosphere's temperature, given how much variation there is in the Earth's climate already, and how many other different kinds of gases exist that can absorb IR radiation. We attempt to model all of these variables with global climate models, with a certain degree of success so far.

However, these models are incomplete, and not enough time has yet passed to properly evaluate these models, given that the Earth's major natural atmospheric cycles can have periods on the order of 30, 60, or 100 years.

I, personally, am an advocate of most of the policies that governments would like to enforce to stop human emission of gases that may cause the Earth to warm. Most of these are great and necessary things to do anyway, like clean the air and water.

Where I still branch from many is the degree of alarmism with which the AGW theory is pushed, and especially the degree of fervent certainty with which the theory is preached, when so little time has actually passed since models were developed for this purpose. In my personal opinion, verification of the predictions of these models and proponents of the AGW theory cannot be proclaimed yet.

Of course, it is also foolish to wait and wait for "verification" if a potential disaster looms, right? Sure, and since human emissions cause other known adverse effects anyway, like pollution, it makes sense to reduce them anyway.

However, the science of this issue has become hopelessly politically contaminated, and nobody can say otherwise. The result has been a barrage of opinions and proposed policy changes by many people that could significantly change society if fully implemented. Unfortunately, this theory has been latched onto by those who would use it as leverage for their own gains, and similarly, those who do not believe the theory (or wish not to), e.g., oil companies, have done the same in the opposite fashion.

Given how muddy this scientific issue has become, I have decided to independently observe it, and hope to cultivate a measured, objective view of this theory as I scientifically mature with time, drawing no solid conclusions just yet.

And that is my 2 cents.
EMANG
Quoting wxmod:


I just posted that black carbon soot is three times as problematic for global warming than had previously been reported. That was a photo of people breathing black carbon soot. See post 701


Please read the Rules of the Road before commenting any further.

3. No monomania.

Here's the link if you're too lazy to scroll down.

http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlog s_-_Dr._Masters%27_Blog_Content_Rules
Landslide in western North Carolina...

Posted by The Knoxville Journal on January 16th, 2013

U.S. Highway 441 between Gatlinburg and Cherokee, NC will be closed indefinitely since a 200-foot portion of the roadbed washed away at approximately 9:40 a.m.Wednesday Jan. 16.

The asphalt crumbled and fell some 1,000 feet down the side of the mountain after more than eight inches of rain fell since Sunday.
Severe flooding following torrential rain has driven almost 10,000 people from their homes in the Indonesian capital, an official said, with two people killed so far in the seasonal chaos. National disaster management agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said 9374 people had been evacuated to temporary shelters, while a child was among the two victims swept away in the floods Tuesday. "Days of heavy downpours caused the rivers to overflow and triggered floods up to three metres (10 feet)," he told AFP, adding that rivers in the capital Jakarta had a low capacity to contain the monsoon rain. Indonesia is regularly afflicted by deadly floods and landslides during its wet season, which lasts around half the year, and many in the capital live beside rivers that periodically overflow.
Quoting AussieStorm:
NSW with temp and wind direction shown.


Oh my, there coming back, blasted NW winds. Not good for the big fire near Coonabarabran. I've been there, beautiful place.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
comet ISON gif heading towards inner planets set to light the sky nov 2013


ISON is already that bright?!?

Nice picture - thanks!
Quoting Levi32:


Sorry, but if I have to answer this, it must be complete, because if I answer it in a short fashion, it leaves too much of my views to speculation.

CO2 has an infrared absorption band at about 15 micrometers. The Earth's surface emission spectrum peaks at about 10 micrometers and significantly encompasses 15 micrometer waves. Thus, CO2 does absorb energy output from the Earth's surface. Thus, changes in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere have an effect on the total internal energy of the atmosphere, which leads to an effect on the temperature of the atmosphere due to its limited ability to change its volume.

However, everything changes everything in physics. If I decide to breath 10% faster for the rest of my life, that would affect the temperature of the atmosphere. The question is always how significant is the effect. In the case of my breathing, it is essentially zero. It is an amazingly complicated question to ask how much CO2 affects the atmosphere's temperature, given how much variation there is in the Earth's climate already, and how many other different kinds of gases exist that can absorb IR radiation. We attempt to model all of these variables with global climate models, with a certain degree of success so far.

However, these models are incomplete, and not enough time has yet passed to properly evaluate these models, given that the Earth's major natural atmospheric cycles can be on the order of 30, 60, or 100 years.

I, personally, am an advocate of most of the policies that governments would like to enforce to stop human emission of gases that may cause the Earth to warm. Most of these are great and necessary things to do anyway, like clean the air and water.

Where I still branch from many is the degree of alarmism with which the AGW theory is pushed, and especially the degree of fervent certainty with which the theory is preached, when so little time has actually passed since models were developed for this purpose. In my personal opinion, verification of the predictions of these models and proponents of the AGW theory cannot be proclaimed yet.

Of course, it is also foolish to wait and wait for "verification" if a potential disaster looms, right? Sure, and since human emissions cause other known adverse effects anyway, like pollution, it makes sense to reduce them anyway.

However, the science of this issue has become hopelessly politically contaminated, and nobody can say otherwise. The result has been a barrage of opinions and proposed policy changes by many people that could significantly change society if fully implemented. Unfortunately, this theory has been latched onto by those who would use it as leverage for their own gains, and similarly, those who do not believe the theory (or wish not to), e.g., oil companies, have done the same in the opposite fashion.

Given how muddy this scientific issue has become, I have decided to independently observe it, and hope to cultivate a measured, objective view of this theory as I scientifically mature with time.

And that is my 2 cents.


I appreciate your answer, Levi and I do not disagree with what you are saying. I am not trying to be facetious when I say this, but I know of no "proper" way to say this. .. You used a lot of words to not answer my question.
Quoting Chucktown:
I can't believe this jackass charges 10 K to speak.

Link
Oh, my. It seems you've been misled. Again. In actuality, Mann is speaking at the event for free. From his facebook page:

Maybe I need to hire Christopher Monckton...as my agent! Somehow he (and/or an individual named Tom Nelson he apparently relies upon for his rock-solid information) has apparently negotiated a 10K increase in honorarium for a keynote lecture I'm giving at the Sports Turf Managers Association (STMA) Annual Meeting on Friday. Given that I agreed to do the event pro bono (which the Viscount/Lord/whatever and his trusted information purveyors could have confirmed directly with the STMA) he must clearly be privy to information that neither the STMA and I have. But getting fact right never really was one of the Viscount's strengths, was it?

A little research can go a long way toward preventing the spread of, er, manure...
The 00z NAM went just a tad south with the snowfall
00z




18z
Quoting ncstorm:
The 00z NAM went just a tad south with the snowfall
00z




18z


Good...
Quoting Terradad:


ISON is already that bright?!?

Nice picture - thanks!
by nov it suppose to be 15 times brighter than the full moon
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my. It seems you've been misled. Again. In actuality, Mann is speaking at the event for free. From his facebook page:

Maybe I need to hire Christopher Monckton (yes, this guy: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Christo pher_Monckton ) as my agent! Somehow he (and/or an individual named Tom Nelson he apparently relies upon for his rock-solid information) has apparently negotiated a 10K increase in honorarium for a keynote lecture I'm giving at the Sports Turf Managers Association (STMA) Annual Meeting on Friday. Given that I agreed to do the event pro bono (which the Viscount/Lord/whatever and his trusted information purveyors could have confirmed directly with the STMA) he must clearly be privy to information that neither the STMA and I have. But getting fact right never really was one of the Viscount's strengths, was it? (http://www.desmogblog.com/pompous-prat-alert-visc ount-monckton-tour)


A little research can go a long way toward preventing the spread of, er, manure...


Now now Nea, No need for name calling, that's kindergarten stuff.

I wonder when PalmBeachWeather will come off his ban, I hope it's soon.
So to keep this post weather related. I'll post this.....

Fire authorities on alert as temperatures climb

Fire crews are fighting a grass fire at Jancourt south of Camperdown in Victoria's south west.
About five tankers are at the scene of the fire and water-bombing aircraft have been called in.
The fire is smaller than five hectares.
Cloudy conditions and cooler temperatures earlier Thursday have helped firefighters who are on alert across Victoria.
Temperatures are now rising into the 40s in the north west, but there have been no major fires reported.
Total Fire Bans remain in place in the Wimmera, the North Central, Central and South West districts.
Victorians are being urged to stay on alert and keep abreast of fire updates.

Severe fire danger is forecast for most of the state.
Authorities are warning any fires that break out will move very quickly.
Premier Ted Baillieu says Victoria is extremely dry and the risk of fires is significant.
"If there is a fire, then the prospect of that fire running fast and running intensively is also significant," he said.
"It's obviously important that everybody take full measure of the circumstances they find themselves in, pay attention to all communications, and I say all communications."
Fire Services Commissioner Craig Lapsley says the state is in a good position to deal with any potential fires.
He says every fire that has started in the past couple of days has been quick to be managed and controlled.
Mr Lapsley says the "Elvis" aircraft is also back in action after undergoing repairs.


%uFFFD ABC 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:


Now now Nea, No need for name calling, that's kindergarten stuff.


I wonder when PalmBeachWeather will come off his ban, I hope it's soon.


I was thinking that PBW is a woman. I thought that I saw where PBW had mentioned this, but I may be wrong.
Quoting Chapelhill:
Landslide in western North Carolina...

Posted by The Knoxville Journal on January 16th, 2013

U.S. Highway 441 between Gatlinburg and Cherokee, NC will be closed indefinitely since a 200-foot portion of the roadbed washed away at approximately 9:40 a.m.Wednesday Jan. 16.

The asphalt crumbled and fell some 1,000 feet down the side of the mountain after more than eight inches of rain fell since Sunday.


If you've ever been on this road, it's very pretty, but it's also very scary driving on it. Surprised we haven't heard about more of these up that way...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I was thinking that PBW is a woman. I thought that I saw where PBW had mentioned this, but I may be wrong.

I just used that as a more generic term. Maybe I should of said he/she.

I only just learnt VR46L is a lady.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I was thinking that PBW is a woman. I thought that I saw where PBW had mentioned this, but I may be wrong.


Yes, you are correct she is indeed a Woman.........
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is air pollution in China. We get it. How many days in a row are you going to post about it?

365 days in every year...

But seriously, it is not the content wxmod posts, but how frequently he/she posts it. It does get annoying but I am being nice and not trying not to use my ignore feature unless I really have to. I unignored anyone on it on New Years Eve.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my. It seems you've been misled. Again. In actuality, Mann is speaking at the event for free. From his facebook page:

Maybe I need to hire Christopher Monckton...as my agent! Somehow he (and/or an individual named Tom Nelson he apparently relies upon for his rock-solid information) has apparently negotiated a 10K increase in honorarium for a keynote lecture I'm giving at the Sports Turf Managers Association (STMA) Annual Meeting on Friday. Given that I agreed to do the event pro bono (which the Viscount/Lord/whatever and his trusted information purveyors could have confirmed directly with the STMA) he must clearly be privy to information that neither the STMA and I have. But getting fact right never really was one of the Viscount's strengths, was it?

A little research can go a long way toward preventing the spread of, er, manure...


Golden hockey sticks cost money...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my. It seems you've been misled. Again. In actuality, Mann is speaking at the event for free. From his facebook page:

Maybe I need to hire Christopher Monckton...as my agent! Somehow he (and/or an individual named Tom Nelson he apparently relies upon for his rock-solid information) has apparently negotiated a 10K increase in honorarium for a keynote lecture I'm giving at the Sports Turf Managers Association (STMA) Annual Meeting on Friday. Given that I agreed to do the event pro bono (which the Viscount/Lord/whatever and his trusted information purveyors could have confirmed directly with the STMA) he must clearly be privy to information that neither the STMA and I have. But getting fact right never really was one of the Viscount's strengths, was it?

A little research can go a long way toward preventing the spread of, er, manure...
You are right a little research can go along way toward preventing the spread of, er manure. You and Chucktown are talking about two different speaking engagments. One is Thursday and one is Friday.

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars

Valencia College Lecture and Book Signing
Valencia College
Orlando, FL (January 17, 2013)
Publicity: Event Flyer

The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars

STMA Annual meeting 2013Lecture and Book Signing
Sports Turf Managers Association Annual Meeting
Daytona, FL (January 18, 2013)
Publicity: Conference Program


James Adamski, who is organizing Mann's talk at Valencia College, declined to disclose how much the college is spending on Mann's speaker fees. Adamski confirmed in a telephone call that he worked out a financial agreement with Mann, but now claims he doesn't know or doesn't remember specifically what is contained in those financial agreements.
Phwee, finally finished my Directed Study mid-term project. Covers all that I did with the weather this semester.

While others are going to get snow, it will remain relatively dry and get pretty cold next week.
A local met just said he thinks we could have thunder snow in central NC tomorrow evening. It's been 20 years since I've seen that! I have my doubts, but the system dynamics are looking strong enough.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I appreciate your answer, Levi and I do not disagree with what you are saying. I am not trying to be facetious when I say this, but I know of no "proper" way to say this. .. You used a lot of words to not answer my question.


That's because your question cannot be directly answered in a few words.

I can neither give you a solid "yes" or a solid "no" to your question. The only way to approach your question without misrepresenting myself was to give an overview of my current thought process on the issue. A part of your question is a "yes" (does CO2 affect the atmospheric temperature?), but another part of your question is a "can't know for sure yet" (does it affect the atmospheric temperature beyond natural variation?).

Now if I had said that last part with no context, it likely would have lead to many readers assuming many things about my views. Thus, I clarified in advance.
Normal is 43/67 Today was 41.9/69.5 which is +6F above yesterday temp.
This is so close to normal I better just quit whining and be happy I am not up to my ankles in snow or in the path of that arctic blast. I have no snow removal stuff or winter attire. End of ramble..... :p
932mb storm

Quoting AussieStorm:


Now now Nea, No need for name calling, that's kindergarten stuff.
Please read the post to which I was responding--#715--then get back to me about name-calling (which referring to manure as manure most definitely is not), would ya, mate?

As has been said only about a thousand times here, even if Al Gore and James Hansen and Michael Mann and Jeff Masters were proven to be the most evil, despicable, manipulative, dishonest, hypocritical money-grubbing people in the history of the planet, it wouldn't change one iota the fact that the globe is rapidly warming. Given that, it's difficult to understand why contrarians spend so much time and effort trying to demonize them. Unless, of course, they've got nothing else. Which is, now that I think about it, a distinct possibility.

Anyway, speaking of hockey sticks:

HS

That's an awful lot of validation, no?


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1006 PM EST Wednesday Jan 16 2013


Synopsis...
a cold front will continue to drift slowly through the region
into tonight. Low pressure is forecast develop over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico and move northeast along the front on Thursday. As the low
moves off the North Carolina coast Thursday night...the weather will
be drier and seasonably cool for the weekend.


&&


Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
as of 10 PM...over the course of the evening I have been monitoring
trends in the model guidance and updating the forecast
accordingly. Two trends have occurred...guidance is wetter and
slight quicker with cooling temperatures late tomorrow afternoon and
evening. In short...the potential for heavy snow has increased
across the NC mountains...remaining around the same as the previous
package east.

Quoting Levi32:


That's because your question cannot be directly answered in a few words.

I can neither give you a solid "yes" or a solid "no" to your question. The only way to approach your question without misrepresenting myself was to give an overview of my current thought process on the issue. A part of your question is a "yes" (does CO2 affect the atmospheric temperature?), but another part of your question is a "can't know for sure yet" (does it affect the atmospheric temperature beyond natural variation?).


You did give an excellent assessment of your sentiments on the topic of the AGWT, but you did not answer the question that I put before you.

I will ask the same question again. ... I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?

Perhaps my question is too ambiguous? I can try to rephrase it, if you wish. You are quite free to decline answering the question and we can leave it at that. You are not obligated, by any means, to answer it.
now this is funny


Link
Im back...anything new?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?


What I did tell you is that, based on the laws of physics, tons/day of CO2 is capable of altering the atmosphere's temperature. The catch is the phrase "beyond natural variations." The laws of physics can give you an answer, but I cannot give you that answer because humans are not yet fully adept at modeling the known laws of physics. Thus, we don't yet know all of the answers that the laws of physics can give. An answer to your question requires near-complete knowledge of all possible ramifications of physical laws applied to our Earth.

The solid answer to your question exists. I, personally, don't think we've yet found it. Therefore, how can I give it to you?

I'm not sure how else to put it.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You did give an excellent assessment of your sentiments on the topic of the AGWT, but you did not answer the question that I put before you.

I will ask the same question again. ... I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?

Perhaps my question is too ambiguous? I can try to rephrase it, if you wish. You are quite free to decline answering the question and we can leave it at that. You are not obligated, by any means, to answer it.


I'm not Levi but not need to be a scientific to know that everything in excess hurts
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im back...anything new?


New? Just the usual stuff that happens in the off-season, nothing surprising.....
Wow..the 00z GFS has trended south with the 00z NAM..come on SNOW

Most, if not all, of North Carolina should see snowfall tomorrow night into Friday morning. We shouldn't see snowfall accumulations southeast of the Raleigh area, however.
Quoting Astrometeor:


New? Just the usual stuff that happens in the off-season, nothing surprising.....


I didn't explain myself...

Anything new with the storm for the central eastern US? Like a track shift, intensity from new model runs...?
Quoting Tazmanian:
now this is funny


Link


Where you been? Haven't seen you on here in awhile. Did you just thaw out?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You did give an excellent assessment of your sentiments on the topic of the AGWT, but you did not answer the question that I put before you.

I will ask the same question again. ... I would like to ask you if you know of anything within the Laws of Physics that would allow us to put tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere and we not witness a warming of our climate beyond the natural variations within our climate?

Perhaps my question is too ambiguous? I can try to rephrase it, if you wish. You are quite free to decline answering the question and we can leave it at that. You are not obligated, by any means, to answer it.


CO2 absorbs radiation in only certain wavelengths. I have heard it said that CO2 is already absorbing all it can in these wavelengths, so adding more CO2 will not cause any problems. I do not believe this, but I have heard it said by others.




Quoting ncstorm:
Wow..the 00z GFS has trended south with the 00z NAM..come on SNOW

GO SOUTH, MODELS! C'mon GFS... C'mon, NAM...
Quoting ncstorm:
Wow..the 00z GFS has trended south with the 00z NAM..come on SNOW

I'm screwed if that happends.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm screwed if that happends.


the models are not handling the system very well..it could very well end up in the 06z run where my area is that one piece of corner of NC that wont get a flake and the snow is concentrated further north..it really is model watching at this point..
Quoting Levi32:


What I did tell you is that, based on the laws of physics, tons/day of CO2 is capable of altering the atmosphere's temperature. The catch is the phrase "beyond natural variations." The laws of physics can give you an answer, but I cannot give you that answer because humans are not yet fully adept at modeling the known laws of physics. Thus, we don't yet know all of the answers that the laws of physics can give. An answer to your question requires near-complete knowledge of all possible ramifications of physical laws applied to our Earth.

The solid answer to your question exists. I, personally, don't think we've yet found it. Therefore, how can I give it to you?

I'm not sure how else to put it.


I can accept that. We do not know everything there is to know and I certainly agree with you on that. There is much variability that must accounted for.

Let me try using some variables in our climate and try this from another approach. We will consider that all other variables remain the same except for the ones that I will use here.

Let us say that we enter a 20 year period where the solar activity is unusually low, but within its natural variability. Let us also that we have a strong La Nina event that last for ten years during this same time. Using the Laws of Physics, would you expect to see the atmosphere cool more with 250ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere than with 400ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere?

Now, let us reverse this process. All other variables being the same, we see a 20 year period of heavy solar activity, but within the natural variability, and a strong 10 year El Nino cycle during the same time frame. Using the Laws of Physics, would you expect to see more atmospheric warming at 250ppm of CO2 than with 400ppm of CO2?

We will consider that the La Nina and El Nino cycles begin 5 years after the solar activity begins to keep everything otherwise equal.

I have a great deal of respect for you and for your knowledge. Should I be pushing the limits of your patience with me, then we can end it here. I will accept that you have answered my first question within the knowledge of what we can know at this time.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm screwed if that happends.

Yeah. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you may not see as much snow as thought earlier today. The NAM was never really excited about your prospects for several inches from the get go, and now the GFS is shifting that direction.

You'll still see it though.
Quoting ncstorm:


the models are not handling the system very well..it could very well end up in the 06z run where my area is that one piece of corner of NC that wont get a flake and the snow is concentrated further north..it really is model watching at this point..
or the storm could be smaller/bigger than the models shows...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you may not see as much snow as thought earlier today. The NAM was never really excited about your prospects for several inches from the get go, and now the GFS is shifting that direction.

You'll still see it though.
It can't be like the other failed snowstorms in the past.I actually want something on the ground where it's measurable.Not a dusting or trace..

Ncstorm is would be a shame if N.C got more snow than D.C.It's like everywhere else is getting snow except for this small part of the mid-Atlantic.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Where you been? Haven't seen you on here in awhile. Did you just thaw out?





i hid a lot in the off season
Quoting Terradad:


CO2 absorbs radiation in only certain wavelengths. I have heard it said that CO2 is already absorbing all it can in these wavelengths, so adding more CO2 will not cause any problems. I do not believe this, but I have heard it said by others.






Interesting. Perhaps the current level of CO2 in the atmosphere has reached its capacity to absorb the infrared wavelengths. But, we keep adding to this level. The only way for this to balance out is if all of the infrared wavelengths from our sun was already being absorbed by the amount of CO2 that is currently in our atmosphere. This would mean that it would not matter how much CO2 we added from this point forward because there are no more infrared wavelengths left to be absorbed. Observations show that our planet continues to warm, so we obviously have not reached that saturation point yet when you factor in that solar activity has been low and that there have been no strong El Nino events for a few years now. One would think that if CO2 had indeed reached its saturation point already that we would see the planet cooling now.
Good Night All - Stay Safe and Warm - Sleep Well - Snow for everyone who wants it :p
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I was thinking that PBW is a woman. I thought that I saw where PBW had mentioned this, but I may be wrong.


PBW is a woman. A nice one at that. She doesn't care too much for some bloggers here tho.
I have a question? I am just east of Baton Rouge, La. They are calling for possible snow flurrie, but not anything significant. Are any of the models showing anything more? This situation seems similar to the wrap around in December of 2008. Same predictions and we woke to heavy snow.....ending with 7" at my home...the most I have ever seen here.
715 Chucktown: I can't believe this jackass charges 10 K to speak.

Then again Mann gets hit with multi-million dollar lawsuits for speaking. It'd take 100 $10thousand lectures to make $1million.
And lawsuits are EXPENSIVE to defend against... even, perhaps especially, against frivolous lawsuits maliciously filed purely for the purpose of harrassment&intimidation.
Quoting CCkid00:
I have a question? I am just east of Baton Rouge, La. They are calling for possible snow flurrie, but not anything significant. Are any of the models showing anything more? This situation seems similar to the wrap around in December of 2008. Same predictions and we woke to heavy snow.....ending with 7" at my home...the most I have ever seen here.



I remember that. I was so envious!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


PBW is a woman. A nice one at that. She doesn't care too much for some bloggers here tho.


I agree, Doug. I enjoyed PBW's posts. I hope that she comes back soon. Perhaps when she finally gets over the flu? We can keep our fingers crossed for this to happen soon.
This is out of a pretty neat write up from NASA the other day about how solar activity, sunspots & such affects ENSO (la Nina - El Nino). This is the gist but there is alot of other great points & info in there. Long live SDO..

Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented persuasive evidence that solar variability is leaving an imprint on climate, especially in the Pacific. According to the report, when researchers look at sea surface temperature data during sunspot peak years, the tropical Pacific shows a pronounced La Nina-like pattern, with a cooling of almost 1o C in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, "there are signs of enhanced precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ) and SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) as well as above-normal sea-level pressure in the mid-latitude North and South Pacific," correlated with peaks in the sunspot cycle.

The solar cycle signals are so strong in the Pacific, that Meehl and colleagues have begun to wonder if something in the Pacific climate system is acting to amplify them. "One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system ... is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific." Using supercomputer models of climate, they show that not only "top-down" but also "bottom-up" mechanisms involving atmosphere-ocean interactions are required to amplify solar forcing at the surface of the Pacific.


Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Interesting. Perhaps the current level of CO2 in the atmosphere has reached its capacity to absorb the infrared wavelengths. But, we keep adding to this level. The only way for this to balance out is if all of the infrared wavelengths from our sun was already being absorbed by the amount of CO2 that is currently in our atmosphere. This would mean that it would not matter how much CO2 we added from this point forward because there are no more infrared wavelengths left to be absorbed. Observations show that our planet continues to warm, so we obviously have not reached that saturation point yet when you factor in that solar activity has been low and that there have been no strong El Nino events for a few years now. One would think that if CO2 had indeed reached its saturation point already that we would see the planet cooling now.



Some people say that the last 10 years or so haven't warmed up much, just maintained the recent maximum, and this could indicate a 'saturation level' with CO2.
And the main problem with CO2 is the IR absorbed from the Earth, not the IR absorbed from the Sun, although both sources are absorbed by CO2.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree, Doug. I enjoyed PBW's posts. I hope that she comes back soon. Perhaps when she finally gets over the flu? We can keep our fingers crossed for this to happen soon.
blogs no place to be if not feeling well thing can bring the worse out in a person
Quoting Terradad:



Some people say that the last 10 years or so haven't warmed up much, just maintained the recent maximum, and this could indicate a 'saturation level' with CO2.
And the main problem with CO2 is the IR absorbed from the Earth, not the IR absorbed from the Sun, although both sources are absorbed by CO2.


We have been under diminished solar activity and with no strong and sustained El Nino events during most of the past 10 years. This will help slow the atmosphere from warming as fast as it was prior to these events, but the over all warming has still continued. I strongly suspect that once we return to a more normal level of solar activity in conjunction with a moderate to strong El Nino event then we will see the atmospheric warming continue at an increased pace.
That's just the short version. There is a 50 page book on solar activity affecting climate. The recent NRC Workshop report. You can read it online here for free.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It can't be like the other failed snowstorms in the past.I actually want something on the ground where it's measurable.Not a dusting or trace..

Ncstorm is would be a shame if N.C got more snow than D.C.It's like everywhere else is getting snow except for this small part of the mid-Atlantic.


frozen precip map



unfrozen precip map
Obama EPA Shut Down Weatherford, TX Shale Gas Water Contamination Study

The Associated Press has a breaking investigative story out today revealing that the Obama Administration's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) censored a smoking gun scientific report in March 2012 that it had contracted out to a scientist who conducted field data on 32 water samples in Weatherford, TX.

That report, according to the AP, would have explicitly linked methane migration to hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") in Weatherford, a city with 25,000+ citizens located in the heart of the Barnett Shale geologic formation 30 minutes from Dallas.

It was authored by Geoffrey Thyne, a geologist formerly on the faculty of the Colorado School of Mines and University of Wyoming before departing from the latter for a job in the private sector working for Interralogic Inc. in Ft Collins, CO. More here..


Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I remember that. I was so envious!


Doug, you and I are envious of anyone that gets snow!..lol
hmmm after seeing the pic of all the Chinese masks, here's a million dollar idea fashionable chic designer sheik breathing apparatuses. coming soon to a fashion mall near you.
the ones made in China probably have espestose in them though
Quoting washingtonian115:
It can't be like the other failed snowstorms in the past.I actually want something on the ground where it's measurable.Not a dusting or trace..

Ncstorm is would be a shame if N.C got more snow than D.C.It's like everywhere else is getting snow except for this small part of the mid-Atlantic.
Imo its surprising that southern states its falling more snow than the state you are in as is farther north.I had always think the farthest north the more snow you will get I see I was wrong though.
Arguably, not a bad forecast ...

07 December 2011 - Post 18

"To the Lord of the Earth, who stands before all living things:

Now, send your flaming sword to the West, where it was seen in the sky before my birth, and lay it upon the ground. As it melts the land, make Manifest Destiny a memory, to be replaced with a new hope, where the word "security" is meaningless."


Quoting Terradad:



Some people say that the last 10 years or so haven't warmed up much, just maintained the recent maximum, and this could indicate a 'saturation level' with CO2.
And the main problem with CO2 is the IR absorbed from the Earth, not the IR absorbed from the Sun, although both sources are absorbed by CO2.


Might I get you to take a look at Figure 4 in Jeff's blog post at the top of the page?

Tease out the ENSO, volcanic dust, and solar variation forcings and what is left is a picture of a planet that continues to warm.
Quoting Levi32:


The entropy comment....well, change in entropy "dS" is dQ/T, so a change in the total heat content of the system and a change in the temperature of the system can both affect the entropy, and an increase in temperature lowers it, while an increase in total heat content raises it. I am not educated on the trends in entropy of the Earth-atmosphere system.
Me either, the entropy comment was a bit of a cheap shot lol.

But it does make sense...if our atmosphere's temperature was absolute zero it would have zero motion. As temperature goes up, things move faster.
Quoting Levi32:


What I did tell you is that, based on the laws of physics, tons/day of CO2 is capable of altering the atmosphere's temperature. The catch is the phrase "beyond natural variations." The laws of physics can give you an answer, but I cannot give you that answer because humans are not yet fully adept at modeling the known laws of physics. Thus, we don't yet know all of the answers that the laws of physics can give. An answer to your question requires near-complete knowledge of all possible ramifications of physical laws applied to our Earth.

The solid answer to your question exists. I, personally, don't think we've yet found it. Therefore, how can I give it to you?

I'm not sure how else to put it.
What I've been saying for years now...

Laws of physics say we have some influence on the climate, but how much of an influence we have is nearly impossible to calculate.
Quoting TomTaylor:
What I've been saying for years now...

Laws of physics say we have some influence on the climate, but how much of an influence we have is nearly impossible to calculate.


Well, I'm just an ol' country boy, but when folks is poor, stands to reason they ain't got no money.

That's the point, you got to take care o folks and be good, no always perfect maybe, heck everyone gets in a little trouble, but you got to be good inside.

So we can jes throw out that global warming nonsense.

Jus sayin.
Flurries possible north of Lake Pontchartrain early Thursday, then clearing skies for the weekend
Mark Schleifstein, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune By
on January 16, 2013 at 8:39 PM, updated January 16, 2013 at 10:44 PM






China is going through a historic cold snap.

The national average temperature has reached its lowest level in 28 years.

The average temperature in northeast China dipped to -4.5 degrees F, the coldest in 43 years, and dropped to a 42-year low of -18.7 degrees F in northern China.

We've told you how this has inflicted major damage on crops, in turn causing prices to surge.

Now we've dug up some images showing the damage.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/frozen-crops-in-chi na-2013-1?op=1#ixzz2IDxJLKCk
Quoting Terradad:
Some people say that the last 10 years or so haven't warmed up much, just maintained the recent maximum...
As you can see from Figure 4 above, anthropogenic warming --that is, the warming occurring once all known natural factors have been accounted for--is continuing unabated. So those "some people" would be incorrect.
Quoting Terradad:
...and this could indicate a 'saturation level' with CO2.
Quoting Terradad:
I have heard it said that CO2 is already absorbing all it can in these wavelengths, so adding more CO2 will not cause any problems.
Anyone making that claim--such as Climate Depot's Marc Morano--is sorely mistaken. I won't bore everyone with the technical details, but a great place to start would be here (or, for a more detailed explanation, here).
Good Morning Folks!!..the blogs clubhouse coffee is perking..help your self to a cup or two and relax for aa few...have a Great day everone!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ025-036>038-050-503-504-171645-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0600Z/
AUGUSTA-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-ORANGE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET THIS MORNING...
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL END THIS
EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM.

&&

$$
We will see what happens today huh.......................Winter Storm to Impact Portions of Southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic, Including Washington, D.C. Metro

Snow, heavy at times, will develop on Thursday from northern Georgia to southern West Virginia into northern Virginia and southern Maryland, including the Washington, D.C. metro area. The greatest snow accumulations (8+ inches) will be found in the high terrain. Meanwhile, snowfall of 2 to 6 inches is forecast for the Washington, D.C. area, greatest in the southern metro
I'm seeing a developing circulation spin in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, especially on RADAR.
Quoting LargoFl:
We will see what happens today huh.......................Winter Storm to Impact Portions of Southern Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic, Including Washington, D.C. Metro

Snow, heavy at times, will develop on Thursday from northern Georgia to southern West Virginia into northern Virginia and southern Maryland, including the Washington, D.C. metro area. The greatest snow accumulations (8+ inches) will be found in the high terrain. Meanwhile, snowfall of 2 to 6 inches is forecast for the Washington, D.C. area, greatest in the southern metro


DC metro here. Looks like 1"-2" here, nothing to panic and go to the store about. Like usual, we get missed by the best snow.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


DC metro here. Looks like 1"-2" here, nothing to panic and go to the store about. Like usual, we get missed by the best snow.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


DC metro here. Looks like 1"-2" here, nothing to panic and go to the store about. Like usual, we get missed by the best snow.
well keep watching your local warnings ok, you know sometimes these predictions can change in a few hours..good luck up there
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ026-029-039-040-WVZ505-506-171645-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.130117T1500Z-130118T0600Z/
ROCKINGHAM-PAGE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISONBURG...WASHINGTON...
CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING
TO SNOW BY MIDDAY. SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Texas warming up today...............
Mornin all. I'll have a cup Largo! 39.4F and sprinkling down on da Bayou Grande at the moment.
Good morning everybody. The biggest punch we should see from this cold front in Madeira Beach is wind, not so much rain. I just made sure everything is secure outside and now is coffee time. Earlier estimates were the line should move through quickly around noon here.

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

High Surf Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory
Beach Hazards Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook

7-DAY FORECAST
Today Showers likely, mainly between 10am and 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Windy, with a south wind 7 to 12 mph becoming west 20 to 30 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight A 30 percent chance of showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. West northwest wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northeast wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph
It's going to be a fun weather day in N Carolina. Heavy rain changing to some heavy snow --maybe even some thunder snow this evening!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
...IN MY 14+ YEARS FORECASTING
AT RAH...HAVE NOT SEEN THIS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING TAKE PLACE SINCE POSSIBLY JANUARY 2000...GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW BAND TO OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...POSSIBLY NEAR OF JUST WEST OF THE TRIANGLE. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME LIGHTING OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVY SNOW BANDS... SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

Back in that Jan.2000 event, Chapel Hill got 21" in about 16 hours.
No snow here..:(
Good morning, everyone, evening, Aussie. It's so nice to be waking up at the time I'm usually heading out the door. I've a workshop to go to today. And despite all the freezing temps, today is the first day I'll have to go out and defrost the car so I can see to drive.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
456 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-172200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
456 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
AREAS FROM LEE COUNTY TO PINELLAS COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY




Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Mornin all. I'll have a cup Largo! 39.4F and sprinkling down on da Bayou Grande at the moment.


Getting a bit chilli over there mate, You wearing a Jacket yet?
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone, evening, Aussie. It's so nice to be waking up at the time I'm usually heading out the door. I've a workshop to go to today. And despite all the freezing temps, today is the first day I'll have to go out and defrost the car so I can see to drive.


Enjoy your freezing cold day as much as you can. Rug up against the cold. I on the other hand will probably be at the beach when you all are hitting the pillow. It's going to be 106°F here tomorrow(Friday), but with a southerly change in the late afternoon or evening and it's forecast to bring storms. I just hope for none when we're driving back from up the coast.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Getting a bit chilli over there mate, You wearing a Jacket yet?



Walkin out the door in the next two mins. Yes. It's cold and very cloudy but no snow. ratz....
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Walkin out the door in the next two mins. Yes. It's cold and very cloudy but no snow. ratz....

Keep dreaming mate, one day you'll wake up and everything will be all white. But I just hope it's not flour.

Enjoy your day. I'm off to bed.
Good night PCD
120 hr GFS 5:30 am EST update



84 hr NAM 5:00 am EST update

LOL at the GFS....

Come on, 3 at one time. good golly Miss Molly.

Good morning all. Thanks for the coffee Largo. Nice to see a man make a pot once in a while! I woke up at 6am this morning and when I stepped out for the paper I realized it had rained! Yippee! Looking forward to the front to move through the Keys this evening. We have a 25% chance of rain today and hopefully it will be dry enough this weekend so I can mow the yard. The grass thinks it is summer. The only thing keeping it from really taking off is the lack of rain.

I like seeing all the weather bulletins you post Largo. And whether it is rain, or snow, the main thing is that precipitation is falling in areas that need it.

Everyone have a great day! I will be in and out of the blog again today.
Not quite sure what the 06Z NAM is smoking. But then again, who am I to judge.



Quoting LargoFl:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ025-036>038-050-503-504-171645-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.130117T1500Z-130118T0600Z/
AUGUSTA-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-ORANGE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY
343 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET THIS MORNING...
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL END THIS
EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
UPDATES FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM.

&&

$$
We're hardly going to get any.The NWS had my hopes up.But now it looks like we're barely going to get nothing.We'll be lucky if we get a inch.
Quoting stormchaser43:
Not quite sure what the 06Z NAM is smoking. But then again, who am I to judge.



It's smoking alot.All of the interesting totals will stay south of the city.Once agin nature has teased us.When will this madness end?.I'm tired of seeing sissy flakes.Now I know how a guy feels when he's at the strip club...
Thanks, Levi32 and TomTaylor for sharing your thoughts with the blog last eve. Good to see your young minds tossing honest thoughts around.

Whole lot humans don't know - undiscovered, unrevealed, however you want to describe it. Perhaps someday mankind will better understand what's now explained as "entropy" and perhaps science will even re-examine the atmosphere's systemic character.
Today the wind will increase to 30km/h and with the high of -16C the windchill will be -34C. It has been a long time since it's been this cold....
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Thanks, Levi32 and TomTaylor for sharing your thoughts with the blog last eve. Good to see your young minds tossing honest thoughts around.

Whole lot humans don't know - undiscovered, unrevealed, however you want to describe it. Perhaps someday mankind will better understand what's now explained as "entropy" and perhaps science will even re-examine the atmosphere's systemic character.


StormDrain?
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's smoking alot.All of the interesting totals will stay south of the city.Once agin nature has teased us.When will this madness end?.I'm tired of seeing sissy flakes.Now I know how a guy feels when he's at the strip club...


As hard as I spent laughing at your analogy, I must admit it is SOOOOOO true!! I am sick of being teased, too! I cannot believe this! That in such a short amount of time the momentum has shifted so far away from us. Sissy flakes go away. I'd rather have sunshine THAN YOU!!!
I woke up at 4:30 for snow that didnt happen!
Quoting stormchaser43:


As hard as I spent laughing at your analogy, I must admit it is SOOOOOO true!! I am sick of being teased, too! I cannot believe this! That in such a short amount of time the momentum has shifted so far away from us. Sissy flakes go away. I'd rather have sunshine THAN YOU!!!
If it's gonna be like that we might as well have the sun back out then -_-....
Quoting weatherh98:
I woke up at 4:30 for snow that didnt happen!
Join the crew...
Quoting yqt1001:
Today the wind will increase to 30km/h and with the high of -16C the windchill will be -34C. It has been a long time since it's been this cold....


Where are you yqt?
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Where are you yqt?


Thunder Bay, Ontario
The blog is dead...
Quoting washingtonian115:
The blog is dead...

I'm here, washingtonian115. I'm here. Hoping the heavy snow band shifts back now like initially thought. But I'm losing hope. And I'm angry!!!
Quoting yqt1001:


Thunder Bay, Ontario

Pretty area of the world that is. Canada is slow clean and wildernessy...
Quoting stormchaser43:

I'm here, washingtonian115. I'm here. Hoping the heavy snow band shifts back now like initially thought. But I'm losing hope. And I'm angry!!!
I'm angry and loosing hope to.i'm hoping for a last minute shift north before all is said and done.So we can at least get 4 to 5 inches like what was forecast at first.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
335 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TO
10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TRI-STATE AREA...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN ITS WAKE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH. SOME OF THESE GUSTS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT THE
STRONG GUSTS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
good morning folks!..a drizzly kind of rain here now, enough to wet the streets and breezy too, front isnt here yet...those up north remember this snow thing is an all day event for you folks and I think yesterday they said it would be in the afternoon for much of the snow to really start falling..good luck to those wishing for snow..me im happy with the falling temps here..glad to get back to normal around my area.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ026-029-039-040-WVZ505-506-172215-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.130117T1500Z-130118T0400Z/
ROCKINGHAM-PAGE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISONBURG...WASHINGTON...
CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
906 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING
TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&
JMA Model


Quoting ncstorm:
JMA Model


I keep seeing more let downs..
Quoting LargoFl:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

VAZ026-029-039-040-WVZ505-506-172215-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.130117T1500Z-130118T0400Z/
ROCKINGHAM-PAGE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISONBURG...WASHINGTON...
CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
906 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING
TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW TO MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&
i hope we get those 2-4 inches..here's some hope though...

"The cold air at the back of the storm could help lift the percipitation nothward some more esepically after dark in the metro area".
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* TIMING...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS...AND 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SNOW BANDS.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE MANY
TREES TO FALL AND PULL DOWN POWER LINES. BRIEF PERIODS OF
BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON...FALLING TO THE
LOWER 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I keep seeing more let downs.. i hope we get those 2-4 inches..here's some hope though...

"The cold air at the back of the storm could help lift the percipitation nothward some more esepically after dark in the metro area".


I said last night the 6z model would show me in the rain slot and it definetely did exactly what I didnt want..but you never know Wash..these types of snow events are really hard to predict..I guess you wont know until it starts snowing and finishes..
The system people were posting about last week about a new invest in the Atlantic.....well, it's out there on satellite, and it's spinning.
Quoting ncstorm:


I said last night the 6z model would show me in the rain slot and it definetely did exactly what I didnt want..but you never know Wash..these types of snow events are really hard to predict..I guess you wont know until it starts snowing and finishes..
It's looking like the bulk will stay south.Especially if you look on local radar.

I can't beleive I got excited yesterday.I made a fool out of myself for getting so happy...
refreshing to see adult exchanges between people who's beliefs differ, in light of the same information.
very refreshing!
Quoting yqt1001:


Thunder Bay, Ontario


Thank you for the information yqt! Sounds like an interesting place to visit.
Upper 20s to low 30s in SE TX this morning, plenty of white frost covering everything.

Have 2 varying temperature readings at my place. An actual weather thermometer that is a weather station showed 30 degrees, but it's tucked in under the roof eaves above my back door so it's highly protected and probably warmer than what it really is. Another thermometer that is a cheap plastic digital one showed 24 degrees out exposed to the back yard.


Split the 2 readings and I'd say it was 27-28 at my house this morning.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's looking like the bulk will stay south.Especially if you look on local radar.

I can't beleive I got excited yesterday.I made a fool out of myself for getting so happy...


Have you ever thought of moving to Buffalo? Or Indiana east of Chicago...? At one time, when those areas were first getting settled, they were thought to be practically unihabitable because of all the snow. Maybe the Upper Pen of Michigan.... that might be the place for you.
Henry Margusity Fan Club
Blog posted with an updated snow map. I see 4 inches of snow reported in MS now. http://ow.ly/gTF7s
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Have you ever thought of moving to Buffalo? Or Indiana east of Chicago...? At one time, when those areas were first getting settled, they were thought to be practically unihabitable because of all the snow. Maybe the Upper Pen of Michigan.... that might be the place for you.
Yes but employment is so much btter in D.C and my sister used to live in Michigan but has since moved to the east coast.Besides I'm more familliar with this place..

kwgirl I see you..
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's looking like the bulk will stay south.Especially if you look on local radar.

I can't beleive I got excited yesterday.I made a fool out of myself for getting so happy...


winter aint over yet..you have plenty of time to get some snow..(hopefully)
Quoting Minnemike:
refreshing to see adult exchanges between people who's beliefs differ, in light of the same information.
very refreshing!

It's the same old, same old. Nothing refreshing in that.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Have you ever thought of moving to Buffalo? Or Indiana east of Chicago...? At one time, when those areas were first getting settled, they were thought to be practically unihabitable because of all the snow. Maybe the Upper Pen of Michigan.... that might be the place for you.

That's like asking bohonkweatherman to move to a wetter place like southern Florida or the cypress swamps of Louisiana. We listen to him comment on the lack of rain here everyday.

She has the right to be a bit upset, since winter has climatologically has let her down the past few years. Just like Texas has been abnormally dry several times this decade.
859. ARiot
Anyone reading about the polar vortex split. NOAA says this one was record for this time of year, suddent stratospheric warming, etc.
Quoting bappit:

It's the same old, same old. Nothing refreshing in that.
you Must be reading a different blog than me, because i see people acting like ninnies left and right.. literally.
it's use of mature and respectful dialogue that most certainly seems rare to me... and from me ;)
i usually post out of some angst, or in this case anti-angst :P
Quoting stormchaser43:

That's like asking bohonkweatherman to move to a wetter place like southern Florida or the cypress swamps of Louisiana. We listen to him comment on the lack of rain here everyday.

She has the right to be a bit upset, since winter has climatologically has let her down the past few years. Just like Texas has been abnormally dry several times this decade.
High five over the internet.lol.
Scenes of Mississippi Snow: Travel conditions were not the best, but the morning snow made beautiful scenery in parts of Mississippi.

(Brian Albert Broom/The Clarion-Ledger Outdoors)


Quoting Terradad:


CO2 absorbs radiation in only certain wavelengths. I have heard it said that CO2 is already absorbing all it can in these wavelengths, so adding more CO2 will not cause any problems. I do not believe this, but I have heard it said by others.





Some have argued this, but it is a very misleading statement.

Yes, there are very specific wavelengths of energy that CO2 is known to absorb and re-emit. It is also correct that for many of these wavelengths, right at those exact wavelengths, CO2 is already absorbing and re-emitting all that it can.

But, one must also understand that these wavelengths are the given, center value of a range of wavelengths, and it is not a binary yes/no on absorption at the end of the range. It starts at saturation and then trails off to no absorbing/re-emitting. A increase in GHG concentrations would thus increase absorption at the trailing edges of the range rather than the exact center. This is a big part of why CO2 climate sensitivity is a logarithmic relationship - regardless of the starting concentration, it basically takes double the concentration to get the same increase in energy re-emitted to the Earth's surface.
Quoting stormchaser43:

That's like asking bohonkweatherman to move to a wetter place like southern Florida or the cypress swamps of Louisiana. We listen to him comment on the lack of rain here everyday.

She has the right to be a bit upset, since winter has climatologically has let her down the past few years. Just like Texas has been abnormally dry several times this decade.


Oh, I wasn't thinking of it in terms 'right to be upset', but simply of following a path that makes a person happy. I liked snow when I was a kid myself, and got to spend my early years just off of one of the great lakes up there. Saw lots and lots of snow, all different kinds of manifestations of it. I could tell snow stories for hours.

As per work, it depends on what you do ... if you're an actor, you go to NYC or LA. If you're a fisherman, you leave on the coast. If you're a Nuclear physicist, again your life-place choices are pretty limited. But most careers have some fluidity... if you are a nurse or an accountant or a retail or hotel manager... you can live pretty much anywhere.

But at any rate, it wasn't meant to sound dissy.
Quoting Terradad:



Some people say that the last 10 years or so haven't warmed up much, just maintained the recent maximum, and this could indicate a 'saturation level' with CO2.


Some people may say that, but they are not saying an accurate statement. We know that it is wrong off the bat because yes, the last 10 years have warmed, and there is no evidence that the rate of warming has changed.

The enhanced greenhouse effect is not saturated; it will continue to alter the energy balance for every doubling of GHG concentration. Please see my previous post describing why the "CO2 saturated" claim is misleading at best.

Quoting Terradad:



And the main problem with CO2 is the IR absorbed from the Earth, not the IR absorbed from the Sun, although both sources are absorbed by CO2.


How is this a "main problem with CO2?" It's not a problem, its a fairly simple energy balance calculation - less energy allowed to leave the earth, total heat energy content responds by warming.
Good Morning All - Hope everyone is well rested.....

Been crying about how cold it has been here and now that it is back to normal we get another wind event but it is a Santa Ana and it is NICE but
not too warm as it is winter.
Yesterday in the morning it was 41.9@6:37. This morning it was 59.9@6:48 and the low was 51.8@2:46. Yesterdays high was 69.5, so a bit over the 67/43 which is normal for that date. 58.1 right now.....
Quoting Levi32:


That doesn't seem so recently. This is a plot I threw together quickly ~15 months ago, comparing the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble mean global temperature anomaly to the UAH global temperature anomaly since 2001. The UAH anomalies were recalculated to be relative to the 1980-1999 mean, same as the AR4 models.

I think it's pretty clear the models aren't "underplaying" the warming, at least recently. In fact, there's a fairly conclusive "overplaying" evident in the last decade. Now if the flattening in the global temperature trend is due to natural causes, to me this calls into question the AR4 models' ability to capture short-term natural variability. They must be able to do this, or the modeled anthropogenic contribution to the global temperature may also be questionable.


Still seems like we matching pretty well to me... even to some of the very first estimates of global temperature change from back in the 1990s.


Even since 1990, the rate of warming has fallen very close to the middle of the IPCC projections, but slightly lower than the 1990 scenario.


One possible mistake you may have made was to take the projected rates of warming and line them up exactly with the value of your starting year. This can provide an inaccurate picture of climate because year-to-year temperature includes a substantial amount of climate variability. This is why, as I'm sure you already know, you cannot start with 1998 and then claim that there's been a cooling climate through 2007. You'll probably want to do an 11yr running average or a more sophisticated smoothing, then start from that value instead of the raw value.

And no, models do not "have to" capture variability exactly. That's a bit of a straw man argument. The variability is on top of the climate and is not the additional or subtraction of heat energy from the climate system. Because the goal is to model what the climate (not weather or variability) will be like, getting the values down to particular years and magnitudes is not necessary.

Plot source data from the draft AR5.
the 12z GFS





N America Shale Oil Boom Will Pressure OPEC to Cut Output


Increasing output of shale oil in North America will put pressure on OPEC to cut its own crude production, resulting in a global oil supply buffer on a scale not seen since oil prices were far lower more than 10 years ago, BP PLC (BP.LN) said in its annual energy forecast Wednesday.

Quoting RitaEvac:
N America Shale Oil Boom Will Pressure OPEC to Cut Output


Increasing output of shale oil in North America will put pressure on OPEC to cut its own crude production, resulting in a global oil supply buffer on a scale not seen since oil prices were far lower more than 10 years ago, BP PLC (BP.LN) said in its annual energy forecast Wednesday.

Yay! More and cheaper oil! It sure is a good thing that there are absolutely no detrimental affects to our planet, the climate, or our health from burning all that wonderful, magical, limitless oil!!!

:\
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yay! More and cheaper oil! It sure is a good thing that there are absolutely no detrimental affects to our planet, the climate, or our health from burning all that wonderful, magical, limitless oil!!!

:\


Just the messenger
Quoting RitaEvac:


Just the messenger
Oh, I know; I wasn't attacking you at all. I was simply commenting on the remarkable shortsightedness of those who believe short-term profit should rule over all else.
Good Morning. Gusty here in North Florida in the wake of the frontal passage from the Winter Low. Humorous comment below from Tallahassee NWS on their am balloon sounding:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1012 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2013

The sharp cold front arrived in Tallahassee around 6am this morning just as we released the balloon. Sudden gusty winds made for a interesting release.
"This is going to be a national problem and it just hasn't dawned on people how big it's going to be," said Jeffrey Mount, a levee management specialist and founder of the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California, Davis. "We're in a never-ending cycle of flood and rebuild."



Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I know; I wasn't attacking you at all. I was simply commenting on the remarkable shortsightedness of those who believe short-term profit should rule over all else.


Exxon to drill near Titanic for OIL

ExxonMobil is spending $14 billion to drill one of the biggest oil fields in the North Atlantic.
A REAL NICE DRIZZLY RAIN..THE SOAKING IN KIND.........
This article has a bit different slant.
Jan 18, 2013

Oil optimism relying on fudged statistics
By Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

Link

N America Shale Oil Boom Will Pressure OPEC to Cut Output


Increasing output of shale oil in North America will put pressure on OPEC to cut its own crude production, resulting in a global oil supply buffer on a scale not seen since oil prices were far lower more than 10 years ago, BP PLC (BP.LN) said in its annual energy forecast Wednesday.


I think this is the organizatin Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed works for, but I did not do enough looking to be sure. I put it here as some times it is nice to know were the point of view is coming from
Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
i read an article a week or so ago..California is going to have an oil boom(shale oil)..creating 3000 or more jobs and boosting its economy..IF..certain environmental concerns can be addressed..potentially there is more shale oil in california than ALL the oil in Saudi Arabia....now my thought on this...will there be an absolute written promise that ALL the oil recovered there..goes to americans?..and NOT most sold over seas?...I say this because right now..our oil is mostly sold over seas..now IF california's oil stays HERE..OUR gas prices would go WAY down.....dont count on it happening
water vaper brings heaving snow increaced