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Extreme jet stream causing record warmth in the east, record cold in the west

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:46 PM GMT on January 14, 2013

Los Angeles, California recorded its coldest temperature in 22 years on Sunday, and record daily lows fell across large portions of the Western U.S. over the weekend. But meanwhile, much of the Eastern U.S. basked in record-breaking warmth, with temperatures reaching the upper 60s in New York. What's going on? Well, the jet stream--the upper level river of strong winds that marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north and warm, subtropical air to the south--has worked itself into a very extreme configuration. The jet is diving far to the south over the Western U.S., creating a U-shaped trough of low pressure that allows cold air to spill southwards out of Canada. The 34°F reading on Sunday morning in Los Angeles was the coldest temperature there since December 23, 1990. (The lowest temperature ever recorded in downtown Los Angeles was 28°F, most recently on January 4, 1949.) The -20°F observed at Grand Canyon, Arizona on Sunday morning tied for the coldest temperature measured there in 37 years of record keeping. At least three other stations in the West had their coldest January temperature on record over the weekend (January 12 - 13.) And, according to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Lakeview, Oregon hit -26°F on Sunday morning, beating their all-time record low of -24°F set in 1888. This is the first site of the 298 sites that he follows on our Extremes Page to tie or break its all-time cold record since Santa Fe, New Mexico did so on Feb. 3, 2011. Since 1997, only four of the 298 stations that he tracks have recorded all-time lows; 71 have recorded all-time highs.


Figure 1. All-time records for the month of January set so far in 2013, as cataloged by the wunderground Extremes Page. The page is showing that three stations have set new January low-temperature records (excluding a bogus one in Texas), and seventeen have set all-time January high temperature records.

Extreme January warmth in the East
To compensate for it's southwards bulge over the Western U.S., the jet stream is contorted into a sharp upside-down U-shaped ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. This has allowed mild, subtropical air to flow northwards all the way to Canada, resulting in all-time records for January warmth to be tied or broken for at least eighteen sites over the past week. Notably, Mount Washington, NH (46°), Fayetteville NC (79°), and Bluefield, WV (72°) all tied or broke records for warmest January day over the weekend. In Michigan, the warmth was so unusual on Saturday morning that Traverse City, Michigan tied its record high temperature for January 12 at midnight, when the temperature had already risen to 50°.


Figure 2. The position of the jet stream is marked by where the strongest winds blow in the upper atmosphere. On January 14, 2013, the jet stream dove far to the south over the Western U.S., creating a U-shaped trough of low pressure that allowed cold air to spill southwards out of Canada. To compensate for it's southwards bulge over the Western U.S., the jet stream was contorted into a sharp upside-down U-shaped ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. , allowing mild, subtropical air to flow northwards into New England and Eastern Canada. Image from wunderground's Jet Stream page.

Arctic sea ice loss: a potential contributor to extreme jet stream patterns
We've been seeing an increasing number of situations in fall and in winter in recent years where the jet stream has taken on the sort of extreme configuration that we are seeing today. Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers has published research showing that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Arctic sea ice hit an all-time low during 2012 and remains near record low levels, so it is possible that Arctic sea ice loss contributed to the current extreme jet stream configuration, and the past week's spate of extreme temperatures on both sides of the U.S.

Other wunderground blogs: The Climate Lottery, and Easing the Global Water Crisis
Lead Forecaster Guy Walton at TWC keeps diligent track of monthly U.S. temperature records, and posts a regular "Climate Lottery" analysis of monthly and annual rankings of U.S. temperatures. His first wunderground post on the subject, Climate Lottery-Mega Ball Ranking of 2012 is now up in our blog section.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's blog has a guest post on the global water crisis from Wendy Pabich, author of Taking on Water: How One Water Expert Challenged Her Inner Hypocrite, Reduced Her Water Footprint (Without Sacrificing a Toasty Shower), and Found Nirvana. Wendy holds a Ph.D. in environmental engineering from the Parsons Water Resources Laboratory at MIT, and will be starting a "water challenge" on wunderground in the upcoming weeks to raise awareness of water usage, and to help us all lower our personal water usage.

Jeff Masters
Summer in January
Summer in January
This jawdropper stretched across the whole sky and was gone in 4 minutes.
-10 dgrees
-10 dgrees
much too cold! when I read the temp gauge this morning I read it 10 degrees, then came in and checked WU and it was a -10 degrees! sure enough, I went back and checked and it was indeed a -10!! Too cold! I feel like we're catching up with Katy! LOL!!

Extreme Weather Heat Winter Weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

WHOOWHEEE! It's hot hot hot in the southeast compared to the rest of the country. Ok not hot, but relatively warmer! Time to hit the beach and rock n' roll Baby!!!!
my eyesight isnt that great..we in the 30's??..192 hours..
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah that may happen in our northern counties, mine is surrounding by water and it keeps us a tad warmer when these cold blasts come..we'll see mid next week..im stocking up on extra coffee just in case lol
You may need Hot coffee instead of iced coffee, LOL
Quoting PedleyCA:
parcipitation ??? hmm precipitation better......
I hate those part, pre words. Always confuses me...Dangling participle??
Waiting when I can turm my A/C off... Hate to see my electric bill. This is the only break I get all year .
507. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
my eyesight isnt that great..we in the 30's??..192 hours..


I can't tell Largo but the GFS @192 has you at 40 from what I can tell..

Kokomo

Warm Songs
TWC says Ft Myers high for this Friday the 18th is 72°. Not sure I'm buying it yet. We haven't see normal temps here for two weeks. We've been at least 10° above average normals
Quoting PedleyCA:
Kokomo

Warm Songs
Actually Kokomo in the Florida keys is not a real place... It's just a cool name.. I think there is a Kokomo in Indiana. I am in the keys quite often fishing and diving... BUT, I do yell out Kokomo after a few Caribbean Punches at Snappers in Key Largo.
warm up coming ped just a couple of more days to go

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Actually Kokomo in the Florida keys is not a real place... It's just a cool name.. I think there is a Kokomo in Indiana. I am in the keys quite often fishing and diving... BUT, I do yell out Kokomo after a few Caribbean Punches at Snappers in Key Largo.


WU shows a Kokomo, Miss..... Don't think they meant either!!!!!
Quoting PedleyCA:
Surfs Up

Wouldn't it be Nice

Surf's up in southern Caribbean Islands too.
Big seas have destroyed/damaged boats, docks, beaches in Tobago over the past 24 hrs.

But the surfers are happy.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Kokomo

Warm Songs
Love the old beach songs Ped.... Remember, Walking in the Sand....Aerosmith version
Ref Post #464 by Greentortuloni. Great read. Perhaps the reason China is hoarding rice?
Quoting PedleyCA:


WU shows a Kokomo, Miss..... Don't think they meant either!!!!!
Nope... Kokomo to the Beach Boys is in the Florida keys
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
warm up coming ped just a couple of more days to go



Thanks Keep, I am looking forward to it. I see you got 30 today so far.
I am currently at 50.2 which is warmer than yesterday already. It was 49.1 then and is supposed to make 63 today.
Quoting PedleyCA:


WU shows a Kokomo, Miss..... Don't think they meant either!!!!!


Kokomo - A Caribbean Island that only can be seen by those of pure heart

First inhabited by Dudley Do-Right?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Kokomo - A Caribbean Island that only can be seen by those of pure heart
Thanks Rookie...I guess it can been anyplace that we wish....A relaxing get away from the rat race.
cooler and much cooler yet to come

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EST Tuesday 15 January 2013
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.4 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 30.7°F
Dewpoint: 15.6°F
Humidity: 53 %
Wind: WSW 5 mph
Wind Chill: 26
Report from Houston: chilly today.
523. wxmod
Quoting goosegirl1:
**Even putting aside the threat of water and air pollution--both of which are massive from coal--in my mind there is really no sadder legacy here in America from our love affair with coal (and politicians' love affair with coal dollars) than the harrowing remains of mountaintop removal mining in Virginia and surrounding states.**

Link

Link

Link

Sad, indeed. Add to that the loss of life from mine incidents due to dishonest owners and the economic bullying that came with company stores in the early days of mining, and you have a formula for distrust of any large industry that wants to buy your mineral rights. Fracking is no different.

Last year my family was considering a move to central WV, but reconsidered after a job did not pan out. We were looking for land in Preston Co. WV which is currently the epicenter of the fracking energy boom in West Virginia. We learned a few things very quickly: 1. very few tracts of land come with the mineral rights, they have been leased to an energy company. Don't buy it. 2. If you have the mineral rights intact, it costs much more than you wanted to pay. Don't buy it it. and 3. Even if you can get the mineral rights and buy the land, the energy companies can and will horizontal drill right under your home, whether you know it or not. Don't buy it.

We decided to move, but stay closer to our current home and out of the gas-money rush further west :)


So FRACKERS: here is the true cost of your gas guzzeling ways. Realestate prices fall. Nobody wants to live near you.
normal temps for this time of year

Normals
Max: 28°F
Min: 14°F

still 3 degrees above normal during the day and 5 or 6 degrees above normal at night

so even with cooler temps its still warmer than it should be
long range in the 12z GFS..

Quoting PedleyCA:
Remember Walking In The Sand

Sad Song
Aerosmith does great remakes of the oldies... They do a fantastic version of "Get Back" by the Beatles..... One day I will tell you about the time I met Steven Tyler in Lake Worth Florida while serving the homeless at the Farmer Girl restaurant.... He was great to everyone.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
normal temps for this time of year

Normals
Max: 28°F
Min: 14°F

still 3 degrees above normal during the day and 5 or 6 degrees above normal at night

so even with cooler temps its still warmer than it should be


Would just like to see normal here, which is 67/43 so yesterdays 49.1 wasn't much over the normal low. Few more days should do it. Maybe
tomorrow. Faster and Faster!!!!
Quoting PedleyCA:


Would just like to see normal here, which is 67/43 so yesterdays 49.1 wasn't much over the normal low. Few more days should do it. Maybe
tomorrow. Faster and Faster!!!!
why
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Waiting when I can turm my A/C off... Hate to see my electric bill. This is the only break I get all year .
it suck dont it,
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Aerosmith does great remakes of the oldies... They do a fantastic version og "Get Back" by the Beatles..... One day I will tell you about the time I met Steven Tyler in Lake Worth Florida while serving the homeless at the Farmer Girl restaurant.... He was great to everyone.
pbw you are full of good stories i love to hear about them.
Any info. on that superstorm moving N.E. from Japan that dumped the snow yesterday? Impact Alaska?
Quoting stormchaser43:
it suck dont it,
It do
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It do
i know pbw i know
Quoting stormchaser43:
pbw you are full of good stories i love to hear about them.
Thanks storm.... I have some I can't tell also....LOL
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Thanks storm.... I have some I can't tell also....LOL
it's okay lol some are just too "pole" larizing.
Oh come on.... you really are a 'Meatloaf' fan! Admit it. LOL
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Aerosmith does great remakes of the oldies... They do a fantastic version of "Get Back" by the Beatles..... One day I will tell you about the time I met Steven Tyler in Lake Worth Florida while serving the homeless at the Farmer Girl restaurant.... He was great to everyone.

Quoting stormchaser43:
i know pbw i know
43....Where do you reside? Trying to sound proper... Where the hell do you crash 43?
Quoting stormchaser43:
it's okay lol some are just too "pole" larizing.
Oh my.... I said that didn't I.......LOL
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
43....Where do you reside? Trying to sound proper... Where the hell do you crash 43?
im in washingtonian115's neck of woods near d.c. Alexandria virginia to be exact.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh my.... I said that didn't I.......LOL
you did pbw
lol
542. wxmod
How do you wreck the planet? Here's how.

Quoting JustPlantIt:
Oh come on.... you really are a 'Meatloaf' fan! Admit it. LOL

What are you Just...Some kind of.. Bat Out Of Hell.??
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Oh come on.... you really are a 'Meatloaf' fan! Admit it. LOL

Just..... I can tell your favorite is Eddie Money...
Quoting FtMyersgal:
TWC says Ft Myers high for this Friday the 18th is 72. Not sure I'm buying it yet. We haven't see normal temps here for two weeks. We've been at least 10 above average normals
wow still hot wow
The Eddie is right on... but Van Halen all the way!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Just..... I can tell your favorite is Eddie Money...

Quoting stormchaser43:
you did pbw
lol
Hmmmm....Barefoot Red Moscato
Quoting JustPlantIt:
The Eddie is right on... but Van Halen all the way!

panama, summer nights, jump, a few of my favs.
old school vh with david lee roth tho...all the way!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Hmmmm....Barefoot Red Moscato
musta been. haha
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Any info. on that superstorm moving N.E. from Japan that dumped the snow yesterday? Impact Alaska?


The models have it hovering east of Siberia and falling apart.
Thank you.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The models have it hovering east of Siberia and falling apart.

Quoting JustPlantIt:
The Eddie is right on... but Van Halen all the way!

Honestly now.... My favorite is, and has been for many years.....Leon Russell.... I have seen Leon many, many times..... "A Song For You" My all-time favorite.
Quoting VR46L:


I can't tell Largo but the GFS @192 has you at 40 from what I can tell..

thanks,40's are ok,I even shut off the AC which is great news
GFS shows a little snowstorm entering the nation at 102 hours.
WINTER STORM HELEN...


Tropical Storm Helene...huh!


by the way, the Japan monster storm made it to 932mb this morning...now at 936
Im my records this storm is the strongest one i've seen, the other was at 933 on 2010. Should we name the storm off Japan guys???
helen lol what a joke twc
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER STORM HELEN...


Tropical Storm Helene...huh!


by the way, the Japan monster storm made it yo 932mb this morning...now at 936
Im my records this storm is the strongest one i've seen, the over was at 933 on 2010. Should we name the storm off Japan guys???


I dont know, its gonna fall apart soon.
where is tomball texas been lately.
been so quiet in here but now i know why
lol
...WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS KEEPING A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
A WARM AND RATHER MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WARM WEATHER COULD
SET A FEW MORE RECORD HIGHS EACH DAY. THE FOLLOWING TABLES SHOW THE RECORD
AND NORMAL HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14TH, 15TH, 16TH AND 17TH.
RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14:
LOCATION RECORD NORMAL RECORDS
HIGH HIGH BEGAN
ARCADIA (ARCF1) 85.0 IN 1972 73 1899
ARCHBOLD BIO STN (ACHF1) 87.0 IN 1972 73 1969
AVON PARK 2 W (AVPF1) 87.0 IN 1972 73 1901
BARTOW (BARF1) 84.0 IN 1989 73 1892
BROOKSVILLE ASOS (KBKV) 80.0 IN 2007 70 1996
BUSHNELL (BSHF1) 83.0 IN 1989 70 1948
CHIEFLAND 5 SE (CHIF1) 82.0 IN 1989 66 1956
FORT GREEN 12 WSW (FTGF1) 79.0 IN 2007 71 2001
FT MYERS/PAGE FIELD (KFMY) 86.0 IN 1989 74 1902
FT MYERS/SW FL (KRSW) 81.0 IN 2007 73 1998
INVERNESS 3 SE (INVF1) 83.0 IN 1992 70 1948
LAKELAND (LLDF1) 83.0 IN 1989 72 1948
MOUNTAIN LAKE (LWLF1) 85.0 IN 1989 74 1935
MYAKKA RIVER ST PARK (MKCF1) 87.0 IN 1989 74 1956
PARRISH (PARF1) 84.0 IN 1972 71 1957
PLANT CITY (PLCF1) 86.0 IN 1932 72 1892
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE (PNTF1) 85.0 IN 1989 75 1965
PUNTA GORDA ASOS (KPGD) 82.0 IN 2007 74 1996
SAINT LEO (STLF1) 86.0 IN 1947 72 1895
SARASOTA-BRADENTON (KSRQ) 84.0 IN 1937 71 1911
ST PETE-CLEARWATER (KPIE) 82.0 IN 2007 70 1998
ST PETE/ALBERT WHITTED(SPGF1) 82.0 IN 1989 69 1914
TAMPA (KTPA) 84.0 IN 1989 70 1890
TARPON SPNGS SWG PLT (TRPF1) 84.0 IN 1947 69 1892
VENICE (VNCF1) 87.0 IN 1989 71 1955
WAUCHULA 2 N (WAUF1) 87.0 IN 1972 74 1933
WEEKI WACHEE (WEEF1) 86.0 IN 1992 70 1969
WINTER HAVEN (KGIF) 86.0 IN 1989 71 1941
---------------------------------
...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD... RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON... A DEEP COLD AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS A RESULT... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CAN SPREAD BACK INTO THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DESPITE WARM GROUNDS FROM RECENT
UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
STRONG UPPER FORCING COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA BY
MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING... BUT THIS WOULD
BE MAINLY OVER ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW
COULD BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE... IT
APPEARS THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND THE
I-85 CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA.

AT THIS TIME... NO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE INITIAL SNOWFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE IS
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF BLACK ICE DEVELOPING ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MID FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WINTER WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

$$
can anyone tell me what's up with the strong nor'easters this year...

Just mere 4" from Athena and 3" from Freyr... No major storms.
I really want to hear the rumble of thundersnow...
Quoting stormchaser43:
why


I like at least the normal temps. It is too cold for here when it is 35-55 during the day. That is just wrong. If I could have it 80 all the time I would.

Panama
564. VR46L
Quoting stormchaser43:
where is tomball texas been lately.
been so quiet in here but now i know why
lol


She was saying she was going skiing with the Girls shortly maybe thats where she is .
Well... guess that is an oldie but goodie... so is my Favorite all time classic romance song by someone called 'Engelbert Humberdinck'.... 'Can't take my eyes off of you'. LOVE THIS SONG! Guess we could call that weather too, especially hurricanes since we can't take our eyes off them either.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Honestly now.... My favorite is, and has been for many years.....Leon Russell.... I have seen Leon many, many times..... "A Song For You" My all-time favorite.

Quoting PedleyCA:


I like at least the normal temps. It is too cold for here when it is 35-55 during the day. That is just wrong. If I could have it 80 all the time I would.

Panama
florida is mostly that way with a few exceptions..80's and 90's..most of the year unless the canadians send us down a present or two from up there, and that doesnt last long at all here
northeast is gonna get some snow...............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1212 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

...WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

CTZ005>008-NYZ069-070-160115-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0001.130116T0500Z-130116T2100Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
1212 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
can anyone tell me what's up with the strong nor'easters this year...

Just mere 4" from Athena and 3" from Freyr... No major storms.
I really want to hear the rumble of thundersnow...


Yep, wacky weather! We had Thundersnow/sleet this AM in the Dallas Fort Worth Area. Even though it has mostly melted, it was good enough for a work-from-home day.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
can anyone tell me what's up with the strong nor'easters this year...

Just mere 4" from Athena and 3" from Freyr... No major storms.
I really want to hear the rumble of thundersnow...


The noreasters all went to Greenland.
The January ECMWF update of the pressures and sst's for May,June and July in the North Atlantic is out and have weak high pressure on the ensemble mean but more stronger high pressures on the operational.The sst's in the North Atlantic look near normal except in the Gulf of Mexico where they are above normal. Let's see the next monthly updates to see how things will stand.

ECMWF Operational January update:



ECMWF Ensemble Mean January update:



ECMWF January sst update

Quoting LargoFl:
florida is mostly that way with a few exceptions..80's and 90's..most of the year unless the canadians send us down a present or two from up there, and that doesnt last long at all here


Florida would be perfect except for the humidity. That is just awful some times....
Quoting PedleyCA:
A Song For You
Absolutely fanstastic Ped.... What a great talent... Thank you
Quoting VR46L:


She was saying she was going skiing with the Girls shortly maybe thats where she is .
oh yeah that's right. that does sound familiar. Hope she is having loads of fun.
Shapes Of Things

Yardbirds, and I don't mean the Pink Flamingos. Weather Song....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting LargoFl:
florida is mostly that way with a few exceptions..80's and 90's..most of the year unless the canadians send us down a present or two from up there, and that doesnt last long at all here


Dear Largo Person:

I have lived in Florida long enough to have seen what things were like during a different climate phase (circa 1973-1989). This was when the Atlantic Oscillator was in a different phase from where it is now, inhibiting tropical development and allowing for much colder winters. If I am not mistaken, the Pacific was also in a cooler phase during much of this period as well. And of course, to whatever extent human-caused global warming has affected the planet's climate, it was up to 40 years further back in that process back then.

I was a kid going to school in Florida back in that period, having just moved here from a much colder climate. Like most others, I was led to believe that Florida was always warm or hot. I can remember mornings in November, in the Tampa Bay area, where the temperature was below 30F and the wind chill was well down in the teens. Pools of leftover rainwater in the street were frozen over. This was in November of 1976. The following January, we had accumulating snow, ranging between a quarter of an inch in Pinellas County, along the beaches, to as much as 2" in the Brooksville area. That was on 01/19/77.

In fact, the entire fall and winter season of 1976-77 was very cold by Florida standards. It was cold enough in Central Florida to have been considered a normal winter in Northern Georgia, to give you and idea. And snow was also recorded in the Orlando area and points north on one more occasion that winter, at the end of January or very early February. If you look this up, you will find corroborating information, somewhere. I do recall that on January 31 of that year (1977) it was stated that all 50 states officially had snow on the ground. When a similar situation happened a few years ago, only 49 made the list because Mauna Loa in Hawaii was barren of snow at that moment, for some reason.

Other years during the 70's and 80's were also unusually cold or cool, and not just in the winter. I was not living here yet then but if you look at the records, 1971 was a year that saw repeated record lows recorded at Tampa International Airport in every month from November of 1970 to May of 1971. And of course, we had a light dusting of snow during the Christmas of 1989, when it was so cold that the power companies could not keep up with demand and there were rolling blackouts for several days. Other years in the 80's saw very hard freezes in Central Florida as well, often ruining the citrus crop. This is in fact why you see no more citrus groves around Orlando in this era, whereas in the 1970s and earlier, that city was surrounded by hundreds of thousands of acres of orange and grapefruit groves climbing up and down the rolling hills. Now one just sees housing subdivisions and shopping centers surrounding the old Citrus Tower tourist trap in Lake County, FL. All the citrus trees froze during the 80's deep freezes and the industry moved about 120 miles further to the south.

Perhaps you have not been here that long, most here have not. And human memories are normally very short and inaccurate. Only some of us recall such things in detail, especially when the subject (meteorology) interests us so much. But believe me, the climate here in Florida was not nearly as warm a few decades ago as it is today. Prior to that and during the first one third of the 20th century however, records indicate that it was very similar to what you see now. You would notice very few long term or daily low temperature records from that era, but plenty of high temp records, same as today. Climate changes, for a variety of reasons, not all manmade. And it also goes in cycles.

Nevertheless, don't be at all surprised if the cold snap forecast for the middle of next week turns out to be significantly colder than the current forecast would indicate. Normally the temperature numbers are conservatively predicted this far out, due to fluctuations in the models from run to run, this far ahead of time. But we are due for a major cold snap here and eventually for a shift in the short term climate cycle as well. Just thought you might like this little dose of trivia regarding our region, since you clearly keep a close eye on weather trends.
This is my first post...
In this post ans other, Dr Jeff Masters related the cuurent jet stream behavior to the Arctic sea ice loss. However, since the atmosphere is a complex "domain", can we related the actual situation to other triggering "reason". I have been reading about the impact of the " Sudden Stratospheric Warming" (SSW) on the actual situation we are experiencing.., There are analysis of this SSW we are experiencing since the mid december. Even UKMet post an article about the current SSW last week (http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/tag/ssw/) and also mention the cold outbreak we will be eperiencing next week. For those who can read french the was analysis of the coming situation that beginning in december; http://www.espacemeteo.com/Prevision-Meteo/Analyse -stratospherique. I will be interested to hear Dr Jeff Masters opinion in this matter.

ACOMTL (from Montreal)