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Top Ten Global Weather Events of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:34 PM GMT on January 11, 2013

It was another year of incredible weather extremes globally during 2012. The year featured two of the most expensive weather disasters in world history--Hurricane Sandy and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012, which will both cost more than $50 billion. Thankfully, no disasters had a death toll in excess of 2,000, though the 1,901 people dead or missing due to Super Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines may rank as that nation's 2nd deadliest typhoon ever. Twenty-six weather disasters costing at least $1 billion occurred globally, according to insurance broker AON Benfield. Eleven billion-dollar weather disasters hit the U.S., a figure exceeded only by the fourteen such disasters in 2011. Nine billion-dollar weather disasters hit China, their highest total in a decade of record-keeping. I present for you, now, the top ten global weather stories of 2012, chosen for their meteorological significance and human and economic impact:



1) New Record Minimum for Arctic Sea Ice (September 16)
Sea ice extent in the Arctic fell to 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16, breaking the previous all-time low set in 2007 by 18%--despite the fact that 2012's Arctic weather was much cloudier and cooler than in 2007. Nearly half (49%) of the icecap was gone during 2012s minimum, compared to the average minimum for the years 1979 - 2000. This is an area approximately 43% of the size of the contiguous United States. And, for the fifth consecutive year--and fifth time in recorded history--ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) "We are now in uncharted territory," said NSIDC Director Mark Serreze. "While we've long known that as the planet warms up, changes would be seen first and be most pronounced in the Arctic, few of us were prepared for how rapidly the changes would actually occur. While lots of people talk about opening of the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic islands and the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast, twenty years from now from now in August you might be able to take a ship right across the Arctic Ocean." Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The fall air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is that is causes increased melting in Greenland, contributing to sea level rise.


Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day near the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory. It won't be many years before Santa's workshop needs pontoons in the summer to stay afloat.

2) Agricultural Drought in the U.S., Europe, and Asia (Summer)
Drought is civilization's great enemy, and the most dangerous threat from global warming. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. In a harbinger of things to come, severe droughts affected important agricultural regions across the globe during summer 2012, including eastern Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and central North America. Wheat, corn, and soybean crops were among those heavily impacted; global food prices rose by 10 percent during July. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August, and the Great U.S. Drought of 2012 is going to be one of the top-five most expensive weather disasters in world history.


Figure 2. Corn in Colby, Kansas withers in the Great Drought of 2012 on May 27. Image credit: Wunderphotographer treeman.

3) Superstorm Sandy (October 29)
Hurricane Sandy was the most powerful and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane in recorded history. Ten hours before landfall, at 9:30 am EDT October 29, the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to more than five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart! Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ on October 29, with sustained winds of 80 mph and a central minimum pressure of 946 mb--the lowest pressure on record along the Northeast coast. The Battery, in New York City Harbor, had an observed water level of 13.88 feet, besting the previous record set by Hurricane Donna in 1960 by 3 feet. Sandy's catastrophic storm surge was responsible for the majority of the 131 deaths and $62 billion in damage in the U.S. Sandy also brought torrential rainfall in excess of 12 inches to the mid-Atlantic, and blizzard conditions to the central and southern Appalachians. Sandy's late-season show of unprecedented strength, unusual track, and exceptionally damaging storm surge were made more likely due to climate change, and the storm helped bring more awareness and debate about the threat of climate change to the U.S. than any event since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Figure 3. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

4) Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Glacier Calving (July)
Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the Greenland ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. But during four consecutive days July 11 - 14, temperatures rose above freezing at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is 10,551 feet (3216 meters) above sea level and 415 miles (670 km) north of the Arctic Circle. Melting of the ice sheet dramatically accelerated, and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. This was the greatest melt since 1889, according to ice core records. On July 16, an iceberg twice the size of Manhattan calved from the Petermann Glacier in Northeast Greenland. This was the second huge ice island to calve from the glacier since 2010. The glacier's margins have now retreated to the farthest point in the last 150 years. The record melt in Greenland caused the highest loss of ice mass observed in the satellite era, and melting from Greenland is now thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total.


Figure 4. The massive 46 square-mile iceberg two times the size of Manhattan that calved from Greenland's Petermann Glacier on July 16, 2012, as seen on July 21, 2012, using MODIS satellite imagery. Image credit: NASA.

5) Super Typhoon Bopha (December 3 - 4)
The deadliest weather disaster of 2012 was Super Typhoon Bopha. Bopha was the strongest typhoon ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead or missing, mostly on the island of Mindanao. If the missing people are presumed dead, this total would make Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.04 billion, Bopha is the most costly typhoon ever to hit the Philippines. The previous record was the $600 million price tag of 2009's Typhoon Parma.


Figure 5. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

6) Northern Hemisphere Warmth (throughout 2012)
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere reached record warm monthly values for four consecutive months (April - July). Much of the unusual warmth occurred in North America; Canada was 3rd warmest on record for the period January- September, and the United States had its warmest year on record. Many European countries and Russia had record to near-record warm summer temperatures in 2012.


Figure 6. This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River on June 28, 2012, as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in Carpentersville, IL imag credit: wunderphotographer pjpix.

7) Eurasian Continent Cold Wave (January 24 - February 17)
Europe's worst cold snap in at least 26 years hit central and eastern Europe hard during a 3-week period in late January and the first half of February. The 824 deaths being blamed on the cold wave made it 2012's second deadliest weather disaster. Parts of the Danube River froze over for the first time in 25 years, and Northeast China through eastern Inner Mongolia recorded extremely cold minimum temperatures ranging between -30°C to -40°C.


Figure 7. Snow falls in Trogir, Croatia on February 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer antoniomise.

8) China Floods (July 21 - 22)
Torrential downpours on July 21 - 22 affected Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, with several stations recording their highest daily precipitation on record. Mentougou recorded an impressive 305.2 mm (12 inches) of precipitation in one day. The floods killed 129 people and did $4.8 billion in damage, one of a record nine billion-dollar weather disasters to affect China in 2012.


Figure 8. A Chinese man uses a signboard to signal motorists driving through flooded street following a heavy rain in Beijing Saturday, July 21, 2012. China's government says these were the heaviest rains to hit Beijing in six decades. The torrential downpour left low-lying streets flooded and knocked down trees. (AP Photo)

9) Pakistan Floods (August 21 - September 30)
Torrential monsoon rains caused deadly floods in Pakistan, with Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces the hardest hit. Over 5 million people and over 400,000 hectares of crops were affected by the floods, with more than 460,000 houses and infrastructures damaged or destroyed. The death toll of 455 made it Earth's 3rd deadliest weather-related disaster of 2012.


Figure 9. A driver makes his way on a street flooded from heavy rain in Peshawar, Pakistan, Tuesday, Aug. 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Mohammad Sajjad)

10) African Floods (July - October)
Heavy rains in Nigeria killed at least 431, making it Earth's 4th deadliest weather disaster of 2012. Over 3 million people were affected by flooding across 15 countries in Africa, most notably Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The floods destroyed farmlands, homes, and schools, and caused outbreaks of cholera and other diseases.

Other Top Ten Weather Lists of 2012
My Top Ten U.S. Weather Events of 2012.

Wunderground's Angela Fritz's has a list of Top Climate Events of 2012.

A group of seventeen climate scientists and climate bloggers created a Climate Disruption: Critical 2012 Events and Stories list of 19 key climate change events that occurred in 2012.

TWC's Stu Ostro has his annual post showing his pick for top weather images of 2012.

Climate Central has a top-ten most striking images of 2012 post.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

DENSE FOG FOR ALL NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...
____________________________

hit pic for bigger resolution

1002. Patrap

681
WFUS54 KMOB 132337
TORMOB
MSC041-111-153-140015-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0001.130113T2337Z-130114T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 537 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHTON...OR 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NEW AUGUSTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNESBORO... CLARA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL (800) 284-9059.



LAT...LON 3182 8859 3142 8852 3131 8890 3142 8897
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 225DEG 20KT 3155 8873
1004. LargoFl
Storm in Mississippi is trying too.

1006. LargoFl
Good rotation on the storm near Richton.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storm in Mississippi is trying too.


Yup, near Richton.
Quoting LargoFl:
going to be some flooding,its not a fast mover.....


some pretty heavy rain...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storm in Mississippi is trying too.


What are the reflectivity and velocity colors you use? I like them better than the default.
1011. LargoFl
Mississippi heating Up also.............BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 537 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHTON...OR 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NEW AUGUSTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNESBORO... CLARA...
Are You All Playing Nice Now?????

Made it to 55.8 here and is hanging on there for dear life. That was pretty much the Forecast high for tomorrow is supposed to go 52 and then it is on the road back to normal which is:

Max Temperature: Min Temperature:
Normal 67 43
Record 84 (1912) 25 (1963)
Yesterday 56 30
1013. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 537 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHTON...OR 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NEW AUGUSTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNESBORO... CLARA...
1014. LargoFl
1015. Patrap
New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Level II Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range 248 NMI

....
1018. Patrap

Fishermen try to dig out a fishing boat trapped in ice in the Jiaozhou harbor in Qingdao, in east China's Shandong province on Jan. 5.
(Photo: AP)

Chinese struggle to stay wired amid cold snap
Calum MacLeod, USA TODAY2:21p.m. EST January 10, 2013


Low temperatures indoor make it difficult to charge iPads and iPhones in south China.


BEIJING – China's coldest winter in almost three decades, including record low temperatures, freezing rain and snow, has left nearly 400,000 people in a "state of disaster" in southwest Guizhou province alone.

Workers there used bamboo sticks Thursday to beat ice off frozen power lines, reported state news agency Xinhua.

But for some Chinese, especially the urban residents of south China, who are denied the state-supplied heating networks of north China, the fierce cold snap poses a new, albeit much less serious problem: how to charge their iPads and iPhones.

Extreme weather has sent temperatures in China diving to a national average of 25 degrees Fahrenheit since Nov. 20, the lowest level for 28 years, according to the China Meteorological Administration.

In south China, that translates into genuine discomfort and has reignited a decades-old debate about the lack of heating. A line drawn in the 1950s split China into a northern half that installed and still enjoys heavily subsidized public heating, and a southern half that shivers through winter without a public heating network and must make do with private, often less effective heating devices.

This month, southerners have again expressed their displeasure at what they view as an unfair and arbitrary divide, and now they have new evidence to offer: Apple products that dislike cold weather.

On China's booming social media networks, south Chinese consumers are busy sharing their frustrations at the extremely long time it takes to charge iPads and other Apple products at low room temperatures.

The many novel, and apparently successful, charging methods that Chinese users have documented with recent online pictures include: stuffing their iPads into sheets, blankets and duvets; smothering them in hot water bags and bottles; clutching them to beating human chests; sticking on heating pads; blasting them with hairdryers and electric fans.

This very minor issue reveals the soaring economic power of Chinese consumers, as many of these iPad owners grew up in homes without even a telephone land line. It also highlights the way they employ China's heavily censored but still serviceable social media to complain about social issues.

"How can failure to charge be normal!" shouted Peng Bin on Thursday on the massively popular Sina Weibo micro-blogging service.

His daughter had bought an iPad recently, but Peng refused to accept the explanations of Apple employees in the southern Chinese city of Nanchang that cold weather meant long charging times.

A fast seller this week has been touchscreen gloves, whose conductive fingertips allow users to access all their digital devices. In Jiujiang city in southern Jiangxi province, the China News Service reported strong sales of touchscreen gloves, selling for under $2 per pair last week, among young users of smartphone and iPads.

"In the winter I can wear gloves to play with my iPad and cellphone, and they only cost $1.80, it's really good," said a female shopper who gave her name as Sun, the news agency reported.
Discussion out of Birmingham Al NWS

WELL...YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUCKED ME IN. TODAY`S
RUN...AS WELL AS TODAY`S GFS AND NAM...NOW SHOW THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
CUTOFF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN COASTAL STATES
ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DICKENS OF A TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY (DURING THE TIME THIS UPPER LOW IS
NOW FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA). NO NEED TO
GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS. FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH BY THAT TIME SO THAT ANY PRECIP
THAT COMES THE END OF THE WEEK WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

IT IS NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL WE CAN FAIRLY SAFELY SAY THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY. AFTER THAT...WE SIT AND WAIT
AND TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH DIRECTION THE REALLY COLD AIR GOES
AFTER IT DROPS INTO THE U.S. FROM CANADA.
We got good rotation going on here in Mississippi near Clara, MS.

HUGE 936mb STORM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC in 48 hours...ACCORDING TO THE OPC.

Winds gusts over 100 mph


All global weather models continue to indicate a significant and extremely dangerous low pressure will develop across the Western Pacific over the next couple of days. The first image contains data from the Jan 13 06Z GFS model cycle, with mean boundary layer winds/shaded isotachs overlain with mean sea level pressure. GFS output deepens the central pressure to 936 mb, along with a massive area of hurricane force winds and an embedded area of 80+ kt winds in the southwest semicircle. The second image contains data from the NOAA WaveWatch III, again from cycle time Jan 13 06Z, however this forecast valid time is for 9 hours later than the first image. This graphic depicts the phenomenal significant wave height values forecast to be generated by this low pressure, with a central bullseye showing an incredible 63 ft closed isoheight contour.
HUGE 936mb STORM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC in 48 hours...ACCORDING TO THE OPC.

Winds gusts over 100 mph


All global weather models continue to indicate a significant and extremely dangerous low pressure will develop across the Western Pacific over the next couple of days. The first image contains data from the Jan 13 06Z GFS model cycle, with mean boundary layer winds/shaded isotachs overlain with mean sea level pressure. GFS output deepens the central pressure to 936 mb, along with a massive area of hurricane force winds and an embedded area of 80+ kt winds in the southwest semicircle. The second image contains data from the NOAA WaveWatch III, again from cycle time Jan 13 06Z, however this forecast valid time is for 9 hours later than the first image. This graphic depicts the phenomenal significant wave height values forecast to be generated by this low pressure, with a central bullseye showing an incredible 63 ft closed isoheight contour.

1023. VR46L
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Discussion out of Birmingham Al NWS

WELL...YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUCKED ME IN. TODAY`S
RUN...AS WELL AS TODAY`S GFS AND NAM...NOW SHOW THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
CUTOFF AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN COASTAL STATES
ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DICKENS OF A TIME HANDLING
THIS FEATURE...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY (DURING THE TIME THIS UPPER LOW IS
NOW FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA). NO NEED TO
GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS. FORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH BY THAT TIME SO THAT ANY PRECIP
THAT COMES THE END OF THE WEEK WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

IT IS NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL WE CAN FAIRLY SAFELY SAY THAT
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY. AFTER THAT...WE SIT AND WAIT
AND TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHICH DIRECTION THE REALLY COLD AIR GOES
AFTER IT DROPS INTO THE U.S. FROM CANADA.


What a great Discussion ... They are very humorously saying they have no idea long term
that huge future monster is now leaving Japan with a pressure of 997 mb....it'll deepen about 61 millibars

Serious rotation on that storm in SE MS, looks better every radar scan.
AQuoting PedleyCA:
Are You All Playing Nice Now?????

Made it to 55.8 here and is hanging on there for dear life. That was pretty much the Forecast high for tomorrow is supposed to go 52 and then it is on the road back to normal which is:

Max Temperature: Min Temperature:
Normal 67 43
Record 84 (1912) 25 (1963)
Yesterday 56 30
Ah... why play nice, that's no fun. Shake it up and stir it up. Wake up the mind in different ways and call it a debate!
Why SPC didn't issued a Tornado Watch this afternoon? There have been a few Tornado Warnings.
Just a note for those not using GR2Analyst: Without storm motion set, which is not available on any other GRlevelX product besides GR2Analyst, the rotation seen on radar is going to look a lot more threatening than what it actually is.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Why SPC didn't issued a Tornado Watch this afternoon? There have been a few Tornado Warnings.

Coverage isn't large enough. These tornado warnings have been few and far between.
Love when I see news about the flu on TWC....Lol.
1031. wxmod
Global air pollution spreading over California. What happens in China eventually comes to our house. MODIS satellite photo today.

1032. wxmod
Ships devastating the Pacific Ocean. Can't even buy good fish anymore! MODIS

1033. wxmod
MODIS Terra Satellite photo today. Pacific

1034. wxmod
Stuffy nose, sore throat, itchy eyes? I wonder why? Dioxin is in the air. MODIS satellite photo today.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
DENSE FOG FOR ALL NORTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...
____________________________

hit pic for bigger resolution


I can prove this true.... i can barely see anything outside :/
1036. wxmod
Do you have the flu or does the whole state of California have the flu? Air pollution, southern CA today. MODIS

Quoting wxmod:
Stuffy nose, sore throat, itchy eyes? I wonder why? Dioxin is in the air. MODIS satellite photo today.


Allergies? Because that is what happens to me when my allergies act up.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE EMANG (06-20122013)
4:00 AM RET January 14 2013
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Emang (997 hPa) located at 12.0S 79.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM only in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.7S 79.0E - 35 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modre)
24 HRS: 13.1S 78.3E - 35 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modre)
48 HRS: 13.9S 77.2E - 40 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modre)
72 HRS: 14.7S 75.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempte Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
The general structure of the system is not yet very persistent, the convection is fluctuating, and undergoes diurnal evolution. Due to his small size, the system suffer from the moderate easterly upper level constraint, has difficulties to intensify.

Current forecast is based on 1200z ECMWF run that has accelerate and suggests a regular west southwestward track within the next 24 hours northwest of low and mid-level high pressures. Tuesday, Emang is expected to track temporarily south southwestward with the steering influence of a low situated in its southwest. Beyond, Emang should take again a regular west southwestward then westward track at the end of the forecast period.

1800z CIMSS data still show an easterly constraint. Upper level environment should become progressively more favorable for a probably slow intensification within the next 48-60 hours. From Wednesday, it is possible that system more clearly intensifies thanks to a building polarward channel in the south.
Actually topped out at 57.1@15:50PST Now 55.6 Since WxMod is posting all nasty pictures of SoCal I checked the PM 2.5 and it is in the moderate range. I haven't been outside except to feed the cats. I see we have another freeze warning. Forecast low 34F. Brrrr.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY TWO (05U)
8:30 AM WST January 14 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (980 hPa) located at 25.2S 109.6E or 410 km west of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 27.8S 109.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 30.3S 110.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 36.9S 117.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 46.4S 135.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Cyclone Narelle continues to weaken with ADT and subjective Dvorak estimates held up for a period overnight due to the re-establishment of a weak eye pattern. Oceansat scatterometer pass at 1714Z indicated the minimum-maximum wind as around 40 knots, however the intensity is maintained at 50 knots taking into account AMSU, ADT and subjective Dvorak estimates.

Model guidance continues to show a relatively low spread in track forecasts with expected motion generally toward the south during Monday.

Higher than normal tides are expected along the west coast as a shelf wave moves down the coast.
1041. wxmod
MODIS Aqua image of the Pacific Ocean. California and Oregon are on the far right.

Earth appears to be right in the path of a CME that left the Sun this morning associated with an M class solar flare. The Space Weather Prediction Center is currently predicting impact to be sometime Thursday afternoon and evening, which is consistent with what this model shows:

Link
1043. wxmod
Global air pollution on the Oregon ocean side. MODIS Nobody is immune to what's happening in China!

I think I am plenty immune to China's death air....rain washed away all the pollutants.
Oooooo, the pollution will choke us, wxmod. I'm so afraid...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


It's what the left always does.


How come nobody here has discussed Al Gore's selling out to middle-east oil conglomerates and Al Jazeera?
Is he still ya'lls hero?


Actually, I commented on this. I said it was racist to call a middle eastern news agency an oil company.
1050. wxmod
A few hours ago I posted 24 consecutive hours of hazardous Beijing air quality readings. I thought before you went to bed you'd like to know nothing has changed.

#
BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 09:00; PM2.5; 296.0; 346; Hazardous

#
1h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 08:00; PM2.5; 358.0; 406; Hazardous

#
2h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 07:00; PM2.5; 308.0; 358; Hazardous

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3h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 328.0; 378; Hazardous
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4h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-14-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 447.0; 465; Hazardous
Wow..Not even completely frozen solid on the surface..
1052. wxmod
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Oooooo, the pollution will choke us, wxmod. I'm so afraid...


Got any kids who have asthma? You should be afraid.
Quoting wxmod:


Got any kids who have asthma? You should be afraid.
I have asthma too, but I sure am not afraid. In fact, soon enough I'll be in some very toxic environments(smoke and fire) even though I have asthma.
Quoting wxmod:


Got any kids who have asthma? You should be afraid.
I'm just saying all of those satellite shots you're posting are pointless. And they are not what you think they are.
1055. wxmod
Quoting Astrometeor:
I think I am plenty immune to China's death air....rain washed away all the pollutants.


Rain doesn't wash away air pollution. Different densities don't mix. Weather 101
Giant algae blooms thriving under thinning Arctic sea ice
Quoting wxchaser97:
I have asthma too, but I sure am not afraid. In fact, soon enough I'll be in some very toxic environments(smoke and fire) even though I have asthma.


Btw, I figure out how to change the color table. All you got to do is this.

Open notepad.

Paste this:

Product: BV
units: KTS
step: 10


color: 0 128 128 128
color: 10 86 0 0
color: 35 243 33 14
color: 45 255 114 51
color: 60 255 255 0
color: 120 181 118 62
color: -10 12 62 36
color: -40 35 185 110
color: -50 90 221 155
color: -60 221 216 253
color: -120 120 120 253

And save it as PAL file. Go on GRLevel3. Go to view. Go to Color Table setting. Click on the file. And you should have it.
Air Quality in California was worse than forecast.
1059. wxmod
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm just saying all of those satellite shots you're posting are pointless. And they are not what you think they are.


And I asked you a question that you were afraid to answer.
Quoting wxmod:


And I asked you a question that you were afraid to answer.
No, I do not have kids. I'm only 18 year old, jeez.
Quoting wxmod:


And I asked you a question that you were afraid to answer.

He doesn't even have any kids because he is too young, same for me. Posting all of those images sometimes just wants to make me ignore it, not think about it more.
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Btw, I figure out how to change the color table. All you got to do is this.

Open notepad.

Paste this:

Product: BV
units: KTS
step: 10


color: 0 128 128 128
color: 10 86 0 0
color: 35 243 33 14
color: 45 255 114 51
color: 60 255 255 0
color: 120 181 118 62
color: -10 12 62 36
color: -40 35 185 110
color: -50 90 221 155
color: -60 221 216 253
color: -120 120 120 253

And save it as PAL file. Go on GRLevel3. Go to view. Go to Color Table setting. Click on the file. And you should have it.

Thanks, it worked out really well!
1063. wxmod
Quoting wxchaser97:

He doesn't even have any kids because he is too young, same for me. Posting all of those images sometimes just wants to make me ignore it, not think about it more.


I'm just showing you the world as it is. Now go back to your video games.
Quoting wxmod:


I'm just showing you the world as it is. Now go back to your video games.

LOL
I'm not even playing video games, I'm finishing up an English project, monitoring radar, and blogging on WU. I know the world as it is, trust me. Generalizing teens like that is not good.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1000 hPa) located at 17.1S 178.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

System has become slightly disorganized past 24 hours. Deep convection decreased in northeast quadrant of system past 12 hours. Outflow good in northeastern quadrant of system but restricted elsewhere. Strong upper level divergence present to northeast of system. System lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature around 29C. Cloud features not clear cut, MET=1.5 and PT=1.5. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.9S 177.2W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 19.1S 175.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 22.1S 173.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
==weather event discussion==

A January thaw began on Friday as an unseasonably mild airmass
originiating from the Gulf of Mexico pushed north into Southern
Ontario. A few maximum temperature records were set on Friday with
many more set on Saturday as daytime highs soared into the double
digits in many locales.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system currently tracking north of the
Lower Great Lakes has given rainfall amounts of 20 to 50 mm
Over portions of Southern Ontario. Most of rain fell from
Saturday night to Sunday morning. Some of these regions have broken
their records for highest rainfall on January 13. Rainfall amounts
In the table below are as of 8 PM, unless noted. Yet another
Weather system will affect Southern Ontario tonight and therefore
rainfall amounts for today will be even higher. This bulletin will
be updated after midnight accordingly.


Friday, January 11, 2013 temperatures
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location new record [c] old record [c] (year)
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Harrow 12.1 11.7 (1939)
Borden 7.2 6.0 (2006, 2007)
Collingwood 10.6 10.0 (1975)


Saturday, January 12, 2013 temperatures
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location new record [c] old record [c] (year)
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Windsor 13.8 12.0 (2005)
Ridgetown 13.6 12.5 (1995)
London 12.6 11.2 (1995)
Elora 11.1 8.5 (1995)
Waterloo Wellington 12.1 10.0 (1995)
Mount Forest 10.5 10.0 (1932)
Wiarton 12.8 10.8 (2005)
Collingwood 12.8 9.6 (2006)
Borden 11.7 6.1 (not available)
Muskoka 7.4 6.5 (1995)
Burlinton pier 14.4 12.0 (1995)
Hamilton 13.3 12.1 (1995)
Vineland 14.4 13.5 (1995,2005)
Toronto Pearson 14.8 9.5 (2006)
Toronto downtown 13.0 8.8 (2006)
Toronto Island 10.3 7.4 (1982)
Buttonville 13.2 8.6 (2006)
Oshawa 11.1 10.0 (1975)
Peterborough 10.6 8.2 (1995)
Trenton 10.7 7.2 (2006)
Brockville 8.5 8.5 (1995)
Ottawa 6.5 4.2 (2007)

Sunday, January 13, 2013 rainfall
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location new record [mm] old record [mm] (year)
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Windsor Airport 27.2 16.8 (1979)
London 22.1 10.0 (2005)
Waterloo-Wellington 26.1 12.0 (2005)
Hamilton Airport 41.6 11.4 (1979)
Welland 20.9 15.2 (1937)
Toronto Pearson 28.0 9.7 (1950)
Toronto city 27.2 14.8 (1993)
Oshawa 25.5 18.2 (1992)
Peterborough 21.8 4.8 (1993)
Trenton 17.6 12.2 (1950)

Sunday, January 13, 2013 rainfall
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location significant rainfall amounts [mm]
------------------------------------------------- ------------
Ridgetown 32.6
Delhi 45.8
Mount Forest 13.6
Borden 16.5
Barrie 15.1
Vineland 31.0
Uxbridge west 22.5
Gribsby mountain 33.2 (by 7 AM)
Dorchester 25.6 (by 8 AM)
New Glasgow 35.0 (by 8 AM)
Fergus 17.6 (by 8 AM)
St Thomas 32.0 (by 8:45 AM)
Shanty Bay 17.0 (by 8 AM)
Tapley 13.3 (by 7 AM)
Tillsonburg 38.0 (by 8 AM)
Toronto East York 24.6 (by 7AM)
Toronto Downsview 26.2 (by 4:30 PM)
Toronto Island 23.5 (by 7 AM)
Port Colborne 11.0 (by 7:30 AM)
Elora 14.6 (by 7 AM)
Coldwater warminster 11.4 (by 7:30 AM)

This weather summary contains preliminary information and may not
constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC

Quoting Skyepony:
Wow..Not even completely frozen solid on the surface..


1st year ice slush ice

slop ice as my grandfather would call it

1068. spathy
I have a question.
What % of records from the late 1800s havent been broken? Temp/up or down? just to start with.
Great article... thanks for sharing it. The comments, albeit closed were some more food... ah algae for thought!
Quoting Skyepony:
Giant algae blooms thriving under thinning Arctic sea ice

1070. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:
Wow..Not even completely frozen solid on the surface..
I think your graph may be wrong here are the temps in that part of the arctic (nearest I can find)

Alert

Current Conditions

-32C

Observed at:
Alert
Date:
9:00 PM EST Sunday 13 January

Kugluktuk

Current Conditions

Clear

-36C


Sachs Harbour

Current Conditions

-31C


sounds like a project spathy
would be interesting to see what has fell and what has yet to fall wxmods new job lol

surface map warmth moveth on winter rtns

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EST Sunday 13 January 2013
Condition: Light Rain
Pressure: 29.83 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 10 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 42.6°F
Dewpoint: 41.9°F
Humidity: 97 %
Wind: N 3 mph


theres the wind shift now

temp trend falling
nymore~ Sea ice doesn't float in the air..



1074. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:
nymore~ Sea ice doesn't float in the air..



I am not trying to argue but even if they are leads they will freeze rather quickly in temps like that. And if that is the surface only with no sun to melt them I can not see how it is possible.
Quoting Skyepony:
Air Quality in California was worse than forecast.


Thanks for posting that. high here.
Today PM 2.5 - 65
PM 10 - 39

Tomorrow PM 2.5 - 65
PM 10 - 76
Quoting nymore:
I am not trying to argue but even if they are leads they will freeze rather quickly in temps like that. And if that is the surface only with no sun to melt them I can not see how it is possible.


Watch the animation.. the east side of Greenland ice concentrations has become less & that is quickly spreading N of Greenland as well. That huge warm core low we had hit the SE & east side of Greenland last week brought the ice concentrations down noticeably.
1079. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:


Watch the animation.. the east side of Greenland ice concentrations has become less & that is quickly spreading N of Greenland as well. That huge warm core low we had hit the SE & east side of Greenland last week brought the ice concentrations down noticeably.
I agree but I will go out tomorrow where I live and take photos of the ice with the sun up and the temp is forecast to be 3 above zero not only will you and I see no melting we will see ice increase in thickness. It makes a hell of a bang kind of like an earthquake as the ice expands and will actually split from the forces being exerted.

Edit the colder it gets the worse it gets
SUBJECT: Extratropical Low In Sea South Of Japan

At 9:00 AM JST, Extratropical Low (988 hPa) located at 30.0N 136.0E. This low is reported as moving east northeast at 25 knots.
nymore~ I don't doubt where you are next to shore you will see a 100% freeze of the surface. This article certainly confirms the lack of 100% coverage the various maps are now showing out in the middle of the Hudson Bay. Good news for the trapped whales. They still might not make it but their situation is better than it was..

MONTREAL (AP) About a dozen killer whales trapped under sea ice appeared to be free after the ice shifted, village officials in Canada's remote north said Thursday, while residents who feared they would get stuck elsewhere hired a plane to track them down.

The whales' predicament in the frigid waters of Hudson Bay made international headlines, and locals had been planning a rescue operation with chainsaws and drills before the mammals slipped away.

Tommy Palliser said two hunters from remote Inukjuak village reported that the waters had opened up around the area where the cornered whales had been bobbing frantically for air around a single, truck-sized hole in the ice. Officials said shifting winds might have pushed the ice away.

Mark O'Connor of the regional marine wildlife board said the aerial search did not locate the orcas, but he noted that large swaths of ice-free water were seen in the area.


Quoting Astrophysics:


This is really sad :( I use the AAT telescope for observing (in fact I was up there during Christmas doing some observing). I've heard the lodge where us astronomers sleep and eat has been damaged but the full extent will not be known until tomorrow morning. I just hope most of the telescopes and instruments up there on Siding Spring have survived. Truly devastating.

Well, there is good news and bad news.

Homes lost but Siding Spring Observatory survives massive bushfire

AT LEAST 28 homes have been destroyed and buildings at Australia's world-leading Siding Spring Observatory damaged by a "frightening" bushfire in northern NSW.

Fire authorities said the homes and at least one building in the Siding Spring complex were destroyed in the massive bushfire which swept through the Warrumbungle National Park yesterday.

The fire had by today burnt through at least 40,000 hectares and was burning on a perimeter of more than 100 kilometres.

However while the flames yesterday came close to the observatory and severely affected or damaged five of its buildings, none of the valuable telecopes, including the main Anglo-Australian Telescope, appeared today to have been badly damaged.

The Australian National University, which runs Siding Spring, said while there did not seem to be significant damage to the telescopes, the observatory would close for two weeks while staff determined if heat or ash had had any impact on the equipment. Monitoring instruments at the main telescope showed temperatures surging above 100 degrees Celsius at the height of the danger.

Siding Spring houses 10 operating telescopes run by Australian, Polish, British, Korean and US researchers. Administered by ANU's research school of astronomy and astrophysics, Siding Spring is the nation's top optical and infrared observatory and one of the top facilities of its kind in the world.

The Mount Stromlo Observatory, also run by the ANU, was devastated by the Canberra bushfires of 2003.

The ANU said buildings damaged at Siding Spring included the lodge used to accommodate visiting researchers and a number of cottages and sheds.

A fire has been extinguished at the visitors' centre this morning, ANU said in a statement earlier today. We expect the visitors' centre has been severely damaged.

Aerial photographs taken of the Siding Spring Observatory at first light today show the charred remains of bush surrounding the observatory, and one of the buildings on the site completely destroyed.

Eighteen staff from Siding Spring were evacuated yesterday to nearby Coonabarabran due to the blaze.

The Australian Astronomical Observatory (AAO), which operates the four-metre AAT and 1.2-metre UK Schmidt telescope, said both instruments appear to have escaped major damage but would be shut down for at least two weeks.

Acting AAO director Andrew Hopkins said it was a great relief for researchers to see that the telescopes appeared intact after bushfires destroyed a partner observatory in Canberra in 2003.

The significance of the site is absolutely huge, said Hopkins of Siding Spring.

The Siding Spring Observatory site is the premier astronomical observatory facility in Australia for optical and infrared observing.

Officials said lessons had been taken from Mount Stromlo, including clearing the undergrowth at Siding Spring and fitting ember screens to all windows to prevent sparks getting into buildings and starting fires.

Rob McNaught, a researcher at the observatory's Uppsala near Earth object survey telescope, was among many site staff who lived nearby and were forced to flee the massive smoke plume.

Many hold fears that their houses are lost, he said. We heard a lot of hair-raising stories from the last few to drive down the (access) road as it became engulfed in flames.

He said the AAT, one of the world's top telescopes and a key instrument in exploring the Milky Way galaxy and Magellanic Clouds, should be unaffected as it is a very secure and well defended building.

The bushfire, which today had burnt through at least 40,000 hectares and which has a perimeter of more than 100 kilometres, was today confirmed to have destroyed at least 28 properties.

Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said the number of destroyed properties was likely to change through the day as police and emergency services assessed the damage.

While easing conditions had helped stop the fire spreading, the RFS said additional crews were being deployed to the area before deteriorating weather conditions later in the week.

More than 110 people have fled to the Tattersalls Hotel in Baradine, with residents warned it is not safe to return home.

RFS Deputy Commissioner Rob Rogers said the fire moved through the park at phenomenal speed yesterday and was one of the most frightening fires I think we have had all summer.

The smoke plume extended to 14 kilometres, he told Fairfax Radio.

The fire ... was of such magnitude that there was no way of knowing that anything was going to stop that fire.

He said it moved rapidly with ember showers sparking fires five kilometres ahead.

To have firefighters trying to battle that blaze would have literally been a suicide mission.

On Monday, more than 1100 firefighters, 300 trucks and nearly 90 aircraft were deployed across the state to tackle 146 fires, 36 of which are not contained.

While there are no total fire bans in place, RFS spokeswoman Laura Ryan said 45 new fires were ignited by lightning overnight and yesterday.

So far the fires have scorched more than 500,000 hectares of bush, scrub and grass - - the equivalent of the entire greater Sydney basin, Ms Ryan said.



Cooler temperatures were expected across most of NSW, Tasmania and Victoria today and the NSW Rural Fire Service will finalise containment lines and backburning.

However, the Bureau of Meteorology's senior meteorologist, Simon Allen, said Thursday would carry the worst fire danger this week, especially in Victoria and NSW. It's more of a danger for Victoria and NSW on Thursday, Mr Allen said.

Most of Tasmania will be mild, but the southeast may be a little warm. But certainly it won't be as bad as the fires last week.

Fires continued to burn across Tasmania, with 10 active bushfires last night.

In Victoria, the Country Fire Authority had managed to contain all but two fires by last night.

The federal government has granted 3200 claims for emergency assistance to households damaged by the fires across eastern Australia as authorities learn from the lessons of past disasters to ensure a faster response to those who need help.

In the country's northwest, tropical cyclone Narelle passed down the coast, missing exposed communities around Exmouth.

BY STAFF REPORTERS From: The Australian




ABC News Video(News Conference)
Still stormy from Alabama to Kentucky.



Extratropical low south of Japan:

1085. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:
nymore~ I don't doubt where you are next to shore you will see a 100% freeze of the surface. This article certainly confirms the lack of 100% coverage the various maps are now showing out there in the Hudson Bay. Good news for the trapped whales. They still might not make it but their situation is better than it was..

MONTREAL (AP) — About a dozen killer whales trapped under sea ice appeared to be free after the ice shifted, village officials in Canada's remote north said Thursday, while residents who feared they would get stuck elsewhere hired a plane to track them down.

The whales' predicament in the frigid waters of Hudson Bay made international headlines, and locals had been planning a rescue operation with chainsaws and drills before the mammals slipped away.

Tommy Palliser said two hunters from remote Inukjuak village reported that the waters had opened up around the area where the cornered whales had been bobbing frantically for air around a single, truck-sized hole in the ice. Officials said shifting winds might have pushed the ice away.

Mark O'Connor of the regional marine wildlife board said the aerial search did not locate the orcas, but he noted that large swaths of ice-free water were seen in the area.


It will open up in spots for a short period of time but these will freeze than another area will open this is what ice does. It would and has scared the hell out of ppl not familiar with it. I have always loved when I take ppl on the ice for the first time and the ice cracks they think they are going to die but those of us that drive on it and live with it don't mind that it cracks to a certain point because we understand the cracking is reassuring that ice is being made. You should come up and witness it in person.
1087. wxmod
Quoting wxchaser97:

LOL
I'm not even playing video games, I'm finishing up an English project, monitoring radar, and blogging on WU. I know the world as it is, trust me. Generalizing teens like that is not good.


Ok. I'm glad you are being a citizen and doing your homework.
You want my respect. I'm just showing you satellite photos. Don't ridicule the messenger. Nobody else posts what I post. Keep an open mind and you will get a good education.
Quoting nymore:
It will open up in spots for a short period of time but these will freeze than another area will open this is what ice does. It would and has scared the hell out of ppl not familiar with it. I have always loved when I take ppl on the ice for the first time and the ice cracks they think they are going to die but those of us that drive on it and live with it don't mind that it cracks to a certain point because we understand the cracking is reassuring that ice is being made. You should come up and witness it in person.


It's too cold..I have watched it for years though & the amount of first year & lack of 100% frozen is startling. I'd rather look at buoys & sat pics..there are real observations to verify without me having to go out in it.. the dot at the end of the drift map is were it is now...that area North of Greenland. This buoy hasn't seen 100% frozen sea ice since late June.



1090. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:


It's too cold..I have watched it for years though & the amount of first year & lack of 100% frozen is startling. I'd rather look at buoys & sat pics..there are real observations to verify without me having to go out in it.. the dot at the end of the drift map is were it is now...that area North of Greenland.



I agree you will get no argument from me but a satellite is not the same as being there. It is a little like saying I have seen the War on tv and then talking to someone actually in said war
Hey Guys. Been a long time. Just wanted to check in and see how everyone was. I'm currently EXTREMELY busy, so I wont be on long, but I just wanted to show everyone I was still alive. :)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Hey Guys. Been a long time. Just wanted to check in and see how everyone was. I'm currently EXTREMELY busy, so I wont be on long, but I just wanted to show everyone I was still alive. :)

Hey HDean, what makes you so busy?
Taking off for the Night, Stay Safe All - Sleep Well - Hi Dean07 - Later .....
Quoting nymore:
I agree you will get no argument from me but a satellite is not the same as being there. It is a little like saying I have seen the War on tv and then talking to someone actually in said war


I've ice skated on the south edge of a frozen Lake Erie. It wasn't even frozen over at that spot as of 6 days ago.. Look how much you noticed about the war you're in. You went into this debate with the argument that nothing but the sun breaks up sea ice. Watching it from nothing but the shore you feel all sheltered & safe never seeing the affect of high winds and huge waves on the new first year ice. The Arctic used to be covered in deep multi year ice that would have never have broken up like that. Guess you'd never notice from shore though.

So where exactly are you watching it freeze from in the morning anyways? I would like to see the pics.


source
Quoting AussieStorm:
Introducing Florida's snake hunters: Eight hundred hopefuls gather to flush out huge snake infestation in reward for cash prizes.




Sure hope no one gets killed by the mishandling of a firearm .. most of those people have no idea how strong a large snake is .. or for that matter how fast they can strike ..
BREAKING: 33 homes now confirmed lost in the Coonabarabran fire.
1097. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:


I've ice skated on the south edge of a frozen Lake Erie. It wasn't even frozen over at that spot as of 6 days ago.. Look how much you noticed about the war you're in. You went into this debate with the argument that nothing but the sun breaks up sea ice. Watching it from nothing but the shore you feel all sheltered & safe never seeing the affect of high winds and huge waves on the new first year ice. The Arctic used to be covered in deep multi year ice that would have never have broken up like that. Guess you'd never notice from shore though.

So where exactly are you watching it freeze from in the morning anyways? I would like to see the pics.

The ice always breaks the colder it gets the more it will crack into leads. I don't have to look from shore hell we can drive out on it and look from there. I know very well what wind does and why ice heaves happen. I don't think just the sun causes ice to break up or crack wide open, come on up we can watch ice crack open at 40 below zero and touch the cold water.

FWIW I can order a pizza or a sub sandwich or chinese food and have it delivered on the ice.
Quoting nymore:
The ice always breaks the colder it gets the more it will crack into leads. I don't have to look from shore hell we can drive out on it and look from there. I know very well what wind does and why ice heaves happen. I don't think just the sun causes ice to break up or crack wide open, come on up we can watch ice crack open at 40 below zero and touch the cold water.

FWIW I can order a pizza or a sub sandwich and have it delivered on the ice.


Wind has more of a factor in opening up leads in the ice then the sun ..

Was amazed that the sea ice made so much noise during my time in the arctic .. and that it was always moving to the south ..
1099. nymore
Quoting whitewabit:


Wind has more of a factor in opening up leads in the ice the the sun ..

Was amazed that the sea ice made so much noise during my time in the arctic .. and that it was always moving to the south ..
agreed for ppl who have never experienced it the mechanism is hard to explain.
The GFS suggests that the low pressure area well west-southwest of Alaska right now is going to bomb out into one of the top 10 most intense extratropical cyclones in recorded history tomorrow. Pressure down into the 920s.
1101. beell


18Z GFS Temp/Wind Chill-International Falls, MN
(0-180 hrs)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS suggests that the low pressure area well west-southwest of Alaska right now is going to bomb out into one of the top 10 most intense extratropical cyclones in recorded history tomorrow. Pressure down into the 920s.

Is that the one NW of Japan?
Quoting nymore:
The ice always breaks the colder it gets the more it will crack into leads. I don't have to look from shore hell we can drive out on it and look from there. I know very well what wind does and why ice heaves happen. I don't think just the sun causes ice to break up or crack wide open, come on up we can watch ice crack open at 40 below zero and touch the cold water.


This isn't about leads & ice heaves but less than 90% ice cover over large areas of the Arctic Ocean in mid-Jan and how little of it is thick multi year ice.

Quoting nymore:
I am not trying to argue but even if they are leads they will freeze rather quickly in temps like that. And if that is the surface only with no sun to melt them I can not see how it is possible.


What did you mean by this?
1104. nymore
Quoting beell:


18Z GFS Temp/Wind Chill-International Falls, MN
(0-180 hrs)
We always laugh when folk go there expecting to see the falls it is better known as a small dam with a short falls between Rainy lake and the Rainy River
1105. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:


This isn't about leads & ice heaves but less than 90% ice cover over large areas of the Arctic Ocean in mid-Jan and how little of it is thick multi year ice.



By this did you mean leads wouldn't cause sea ice concentrations drop below 90% so suddenly?
I believe we started out discussing surface melt which I still say your graphic could be mistaken on. Like I said I will go take photos tomorrow on surface melt and they won't be what you may believe they are
Nature Geoscience | Letter

The impact of polar mesoscale storms on northeast Atlantic Ocean circulation

Alan Condron
& Ian A. Renfrew

Nature Geoscience
6,
34–37
(2013)
doi:10.1038/ngeo1661

Received
23 June 2012
Accepted
09 November 2012
Published online
16 December 2012

Atmospheric processes regulate the formation of deep water in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean and hence influence the large-scale ocean circulation1. Every year thousands of mesoscale storms, termed polar lows, cross this climatically sensitive region of the ocean. These storms are often either too small or too short-lived to be captured in meteorological reanalyses or numerical models2, 3, 4. Here we present simulations with a global, eddy-permitting ocean/sea-ice circulation model, run with and without a parameterization of polar lows. The parameterization reproduces the high wind speeds and heat fluxes observed in polar lows as well as their integrated effects, and leads to increases in the simulated depth, frequency and area of deep convection in the Nordic seas, which in turn leads to a larger northward transport of heat into the region, and southward transport of deep water through Denmark Strait. We conclude that polar lows are important for the large-scale ocean circulation and should be accounted for in short-term climate predictions. Recent studies3, 4 predict a decrease in the number of polar lows over the northeast Atlantic in the twenty-first century that would imply a reduction in deep convection and a potential weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
Quoting nymore:
I believe we started out discussing surface melt which I still say your graphic could be mistaken on. Like I said I will go take photos tomorrow on surface melt and they won't be what you may believe they are


Where are you bringing pics from?
1108. beell
Quoting nymore:
We always laugh when folk go there expecting to see the falls it is better known as a small dam with a short falls between Rainy lake and the Rainy River


Icebox of the Nation
International Falls has long promoted itself as the "Icebox of the Nation"; however, the trademark for the slogan has been challenged on several occasions by the small town of Fraser, Colorado. Officials from Fraser claimed usage since 1956, International Falls since 1948. The two towns came to an agreement in 1986, when International Falls paid Fraser $2,000 to relinquish its "official" claim. However, in 1996, International Falls inadvertently failed to renew its federal trademark, although it had kept its state trademark up to date. Fraser then filed to gain the federal trademark.[10] International Falls submitted photographic proof that its 1955 Pee Wee hockey team traveled to Boston, Massachusetts with the slogan.[11] After several years of legal battles, the United States Patent and Trademark Office officially registered the slogan with International Falls on January 29, 2008, Registration Number 3375139.[12] Only a few days after announcing its success in the trademark battle, International Falls had a daily record low temperature of −40°F (−40°C), beating a previous record of −37°F (−38.3°C) in 1967.[13]

Wiki
1109. nymore
Quoting beell:


Icebox of the Nation
International Falls has long promoted itself as the "Icebox of the Nation"; however, the trademark for the slogan has been challenged on several occasions by the small town of Fraser, Colorado. Officials from Fraser claimed usage since 1956, International Falls since 1948. The two towns came to an agreement in 1986, when International Falls paid Fraser $2,000 to relinquish its "official" claim. However, in 1996, International Falls inadvertently failed to renew its federal trademark, although it had kept its state trademark up to date. Fraser then filed to gain the federal trademark.[10] International Falls submitted photographic proof that its 1955 Pee Wee hockey team traveled to Boston, Massachusetts with the slogan.[11] After several years of legal battles, the United States Patent and Trademark Office officially registered the slogan with International Falls on January 29, 2008, Registration Number 3375139.[12] Only a few days after announcing its success in the trademark battle, International Falls had a daily record low temperature of %u221240F (%u221240C), beating a previous record of %u221237F (%u221238.3C) in 1967.[13]

Wiki
Look at Embarrass MN it is colder than I' Falls. I have even drank at The Cold Spot Bar there years ago
1110. nymore
.
December anomaly..the high spot finally left Greenland. No wonder Russia & China got most the winter so far. Sea ice anomaly on that side is actually slightly past it's normal extent too.
Big change the last few weeks.
1113. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:


Where are you bringing pics from?
I will show you pics from Northern Mn and you will see no surface melt and our temp is forecast at 3 above zero. So unless the temp in the arctic is above 32 degrees or has sun helping like in March or April and it below 32 degrees we will see no surface melting.
1114. BtnTx
Quoting beell:


Icebox of the Nation
International Falls has long promoted itself as the "Icebox of the Nation"; however, the trademark for the slogan has been challenged on several occasions by the small town of Fraser, Colorado. Officials from Fraser claimed usage since 1956, International Falls since 1948. The two towns came to an agreement in 1986, when International Falls paid Fraser $2,000 to relinquish its "official" claim. However, in 1996, International Falls inadvertently failed to renew its federal trademark, although it had kept its state trademark up to date. Fraser then filed to gain the federal trademark.[10] International Falls submitted photographic proof that its 1955 Pee Wee hockey team traveled to Boston, Massachusetts with the slogan.[11] After several years of legal battles, the United States Patent and Trademark Office officially registered the slogan with International Falls on January 29, 2008, Registration Number 3375139.[12] Only a few days after announcing its success in the trademark battle, International Falls had a daily record low temperature of −40°F (−40°C), beating a previous record of −37°F (−38.3°C) in 1967.[13]

Wiki
I am glad I don't live there - Brrr! Oh no! I did not want to offend! I wonder if wu police will attack me for this...
1115. nymore
Quoting BtnTx:
I am glad I don't live there - Brrr! Oh no! I did not want to offend! I wonder if wu police will attack me for this...
Dude I am close enough to there.
1116. BtnTx
Quoting nymore:
Dude I am close enough to there.
how cold is it now?
1117. nymore
Quoting BtnTx:
how cold is it now?
Right now outside my house it is only 4 below zero not bad actually
1118. BtnTx
Quoting nymore:
Right now outside my house it is only 4 below zero not bad actually
wow! here it is 44.4F which is reasonably cold for Baytown, but not unusual. Stay Warm! I guess it helps a lot if your utilities are are working. What would you do do if your heat and electricity went out?
Quoting nymore:
I will show you pics from Northern Mn and you will see no surface melt and our temp is forecast at 3 above zero. So unless the temp in the arctic is above 32 degrees or has sun helping like in March or April and it below 32 degrees we will see no surface melting.


I was hoping for a few hundred miles north of Greenland but I'll enjoy them none the less:)

To get the sea concentration to compare you'd need to check the percentage of an area the size of about 10 miles by 10 miles.. Usually around the edges & near land it isn't 100%. It's not just melt..those leads you were talking about count too..

That's brutal temps. 63F here.
1120. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:


I was hoping for a few hundred miles north of Greenland but I'll enjoy them none the less:)

To get the sea concentration to compare you'd need to check the percentage of an area the size of about 10 miles by 10 miles.. Usually around the edges & near land it isn't 100%.
I will for you, you will see no surface melting. I promise you.
A high wind warning is in effect from midnight to 7 a.m. Monday for the Anchorage Hillside and Turnagain Arm, with winds of 40-60 mph and gusts from 70-85 mph, according to the National Weather Service.

Read more here:
Quoting nymore:
I will for you, you will see no surface melting. I promise you.


I don't think you'll find melt. You promised me leads...
1123. nymore
Quoting Skyepony:


I don't think you'll find melt. You promised me leads...
You said look the surface isn't even frozen, I said either they are leads or the data is faulty, look at Alert Canada it is about as close as you can get to the North Pole on land
That extratropical low epected to bomb-out should hook-up with the Alutian Vortex. Once the MJO pregresses into phase 7 or so, the subtropical jet could also hook up with this beast! Which in turn will solidify WPO/EPO/AO/NAO/PNA blocking.

With a massive SSW event ready to dislodge the Polar Vortex to the south, we(eastern 2/3 of US) very well might see a record-shattering(or at least a significant) arctic outbreak by next week or so!
Global Events..... Catastrophic Storm? Seems like they are preparing for one...


Beijing hardens subways for nuclear, gas attacks January 13, 2013

January 13, 2013 – CHINA - China recently upgraded its subway system in Beijing and revealed that its mass transit was hardened to withstand nuclear blasts or chemical gas attacks in a future war, state-run media reported last month. The disclosure of the military aspects of the underground rail system followed completion and opening of a new subway line in the Chinese capital Dec. 30, along with the extension of several other lines. The subway upgrade is part of an effort to ease gridlocked traffic in the city of 20 million people. According to Chinese civil defense officials quoted Dec. 5 in the Global Times, a newspaper published by the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, the subway can “withstand a nuclear or poison gas attack.” A U.S. official said the disclosure of the subway’s capabilities to withstand attack is unusual, since it highlights Beijing’s strategic nuclear modernization program, something normally kept secret from state-controlled media. The strategic nuclear buildup includes the expansion of offensive nuclear forces, missile defenses, and anti-satellite arms. China is building new long-range mobile missiles, including the DF-41, and plans to deploy up to eight new ballistic missile submarines. Reports from Asia indicate the Chinese military is also planning to build new long-range strategic nuclear bombers. Russia too is expanding its nuclear forces with new submarines and missiles. Moscow announced last year that it is also constructing some 5,000 underground bomb shelters in Russia’s capital in anticipation of a possible future nuclear conflict. By contrast, the U.S. government has done little to bolster civil defense measures, preferring the largely outdated concept of mutual assured destruction that leaves populations vulnerable to attack and building only limited missile defenses that the Obama administration has said are not designed to counter Chinese or Russian nuclear strikes. The Obama administration instead is seeking deep cuts in U.S. nuclear forces as part of President Barack Obama’s policy of seeking the elimination of all nuclear arms. According to the Global Times report, the new subway lines were “designed to be used in the event of an emergency, for underground evacuation from one station to another, emergency shelter, and storage for emergency supplies.” A military engineer identified only as Hu and as part of the Chinese military’s Second Artillery Corps, which builds and deploys China’s nuclear arsenal, helped design the civil defense aspects of the subway. Special steel-reinforced gates installed on all subway tunnels and used to separate stations are one key feature of the reinforced subway. Hu said it is designed to protect people who seek shelter during a heavy storm, toxic gas attack, or a nuclear strike. “The station has three hours of breathable air after the gates are closed, isolating the station from the outside world,” Hu was quoted as saying. “Although each gate weighs around 7 tons, it takes just three minutes for two adults to open or close it manually,” she said. The new blast gates were introduced into subway construction projects in 2007. A second Chinese official, identified in the report as Liang, said each subway also has an air filtration system in case of a chemical weapons gas attack. The system is designed to keep air flowing into the station. “People can actually shelter in the subway for more than three hours because of this system,” Liang said. Above-ground subway exits also can be sealed during an attack, Liang said, using heavy blast doors concealed behind temporary walls. Additional civil defense barriers and doors are being installed in the Beijing subway later, according to Cao Yanping, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Civil Air-Raid Shelter. Jiang Hao, a Chinese military engineer from the 4th Engineer Design & Research Institute of General Staff Department, told the newspaper that blast gates already are in use in cities such as Nanjing, in Jiangsu Province, and Shenyang, in Liaoning Province. “The new facilities also have other defensive capabilities like emergency communication equipment at each station, which makes effective communication possible during a conflict,” Jiang Hao, the engineer, told reporters in Beijing. China’s network of underground tunnels for nuclear weapons and missiles was disclosed only recently, and highlighted in Georgetown University’s Asian Arms Control Project, dubbed it China’s “Great Underground Wall.” –Washington FB

Link
Preparing for a big event.... 2

January 12, 2013 – CHINA – Yesterday, it was reported that China – not currently suffering from any food shortages – is amassing rice stockpiles. This past year, the country mysteriously imported four times the rice over 2011 purchases: United Nations agricultural experts are reporting confusion, after figures show that China imported 2.6 million tons of rice in 2012, substantially more than a four-fold increase over the 575,000 tons imported in 2011. The confusion stems from the fact that there is no obvious reason for vastly increased imports, since there has been no rice shortage in China. The speculation is that Chinese importers are taking advantage of low international prices, but all that means is that China’s own vast supplies of domestically grown rice are being stockpiled. Why would China suddenly be stockpiling millions of tons of rice for no apparent reason? Perhaps it’s related to China’s aggressive military buildup and war preparations in the Pacific and in central Asia. Yesterday’s revelation follows reports over the past several years of the Chinese amassing commodities in warehouses throughout the nation. For example, Reuters reported last year that: At Qingdao Port, home to one of China’s largest iron ore terminals, hundreds of mounds of iron ore, each as tall as a three-storey building, spill over into an area signposted “grains storage” and almost to the street. Further south, some bonded warehouses in Shanghai are using car parks to store swollen copper stockpiles – another unusual phenomenon that bodes ill for global metal prices and raises questions about China’s ability to sustain its economic growth as the rest of the world falters. Several months ago, at least one analyst speculated that a commodities buying spree involving 300,000 tons of metals in another Chinese province was motivated by an attempt to keep local smelters running, thereby ensuring continued tax revenues to government. But that doesn’t explain the rice-buying. What we do know is that the world may be headed – led by the United States – toward a period of significant inflation if sovereign debt crises lead to additional “quantitative easing” and other expansions of the monetary supply.
so much fog again...
Quoting sunlinepr:
Preparing for a big event.... 2


I note you cite no source for this. A quick google shows this only appearing on various fairly *ahem* non mainstream "The-End-Is-Nigh" sort of blogs.

Is this information cited anywhere credible?
Foggy here again...but not as much as today in the morning

So maybe 43 isn't so bad. Lol. From a local met on Facebook.

Kerry Cooper
It is cold here but wind chills are well below zero up north. So yes it could be worse.

weather forecast for my area.... notice the dramatic changes
I live in the NYC area

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY ONE (05U)
2:38 PM WST January 14 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (987 hPa) located at 26.3S 109.7E or 560 km west northwest of Geraldton has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 28.9S 109.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 31.4S 111.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 39.4S 122.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 47.5S 139.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Cyclone Narelle continues to weaken. Shear has shifted to the NNW and will increase as the system moves further south into the upper westerlies. Subjective DVK FT/CI is 2.5/3.0 in agreement with ADT. No DT was assigned, FT was based on MET [with PAT not resulting in any adjustment to MET].

Model guidance continues to show a relatively low spread in track forecasts with expected motion generally toward the south during Monday and then accelerating to the southeast but losing coherence during Tuesday. When the remnants pass by the south west of the state the surface winds are not expected to be very strong but stronger winds just above the surface pose a risk to any going fires.

Higher than normal tides are expected along the west coast as a shelf wave moves down the coast.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER EMANG (06-20122013)
10:00 AM RET January 14 2013
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Emang (999 hPa) located at 12.5S 79.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southern-eastern sector, and extending locally up to 140 NM from the center in the southern sector by gradient effect

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.1S 78.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 13.6S 78.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 14.1S 76.9E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 14.7S 75.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
During the past 6 hours, the general structure of the system has remained rather fluctuating with convection only in the western sector. Indeed, the system is suffering from the moderate easterly upper level constraint, and has difficulties to intensify.

System is tracking southwestward on the northwestern edge of a mid-tropospheric ridge, and low geopotentials southwestward. It may keep on this track for the next 24-36 hours, and then and after, it may track west southwestward, on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure that should rebuild southward.

00z CIMSS data still show an east southeasterly constraint. Upper level environment should remain hostile for the next 18-24 hours and may improve a little beyond. System should intensify slightly during 48-60 hours. At the end of the forecasting period, Thursday evening or Friday, system should weaken, as it may undergo a westerly upper level constraint.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA


At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (1000 hPa) located at 17.3S 177.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 9 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

System has become slightly disorganized in the past 24 hours. Deep convection displaced to the east of low level circulation center. System lies under an upper unidirectional westerly flow in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.25 wrap on LOG 10 spiral giving DT=1.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southeastward movement with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.3S 175.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 19.9S 173.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 21.8S 169.2W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Quoting AussieStorm:




ouch....

Hey mate
SUBJECT: Extratropical Low In Sea East Of Japan

At 15:00 PM JST, Extratropical Low (976 hPa) located at 33.0N 141.0E. This low is reported as moving east northeast at 40 knots.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
SUBJECT: Extratropical Low In Sea East Of Japan

At 15:00 PM JST, Extratropical Low (976 hPa) located at 33.0N 141.0E. This low is reported as moving east northeast at 40 knots.


976mb??!! It was at 997 about 12 hours ago...

expected to be in the 930s in 36 hrs
An extratropical low situated east of Japan is taking shape. It is quickly moving away from Japan as it is heading towards northeast. It is expected to become a more powerful extratropical cyclone.



look at that huge pink area extending for hundred of miles... waves over 21 FEET
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


ouch....

Hey mate

Evening mate!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Evening mate!


how's the day there...

Im up still, it's 4:50 AM here
TC Emang well sheared...

That huge non-tropical low in the central Atlantic that we were all fantasizing about is taking shape. Water vapor imagery shows that it is collocated with an upper low and embedded in a region of high ambient cyclonic vorticity. This is typical of extratropical cyclones, and all of the models continue to suggest that it will not acquire a warm core.

Sure does have a large circulation envelope though, as per scatterometer and satellite data. A lot of gale force winds being generated, too.


1146. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..another warm day ahead for us here..
1147. LargoFl
7-day for the Tampa area,cool down coming though...
1148. LargoFl
1149. LargoFl
wow look at that fog in the NE.............
1150. LargoFl
GFS at 48 hours, rains still here...
1151. LargoFl
Morning everyone, evening Aussie. It's 41 degrees today so far, but the forecast is it will be in the upper 30s for a high. I'm kind of glad it's too wet to take the kids out to recess. And there are people who think it never gets cold in Louisiana...
Good morning. Can't tell if its January or May up here, 51 degrees this morning, and rising! Stuck in the clouds and fog again though, third day in a row.
Good morning everyone, it finally feels more like January with the temperature in the mid 20s instead of the low 40s for a low. I got a good amount of rain the past two days, over an inch probably. I am ready for cold air and snow.
Morning everyone and evening Aussie
After 3 days... this fog really needs to go away.... I'd rather have snow
TC Narelle


Morning, folks,

62 on the back porch this morning in central VA. Looks like winter will arrive next week but now we're basking in April/May temps.

Have a good day.
Good MorningKori.
Good Morning Largo.
Warm and humid here this morning.
70F on da bayou.
1159. LargoFl
G'eve Aussie. Still frying?
1161. LargoFl
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Good MorningKori.
Good Morning Largo.
Warm and humid here this morning.
70F on da bayou.
Good Morning Pensacola..let us know how it is when you get that cold front ok..supposed to stall out later in the week near northern florida
1162. LargoFl
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

.SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE WARMING DURING THE DAY TODAY. RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
Will do.
1164. LargoFl
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'eve Aussie. Still frying?

Not the past few days here in Sydney but other places yes, very much so. I have seen temps up to 48C/118F in SW Queensland. Also in the next week the Monsoon trough is supposed to head south. It's quiet late and normally comes south just before Christmas. As you can see, there hasn't been very much.



This is the next 8 days forecast.
1166. LargoFl
Gee Mississippi cant catch a break huh..seems like a month now same thing...................THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI...

CHICKASAWHAY AT LEAKESVILLE AFFECTING GEORGE...GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES.

.HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...RIVER
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. IT IS
EMPHASIZED THAT THE FOLLOWING FORECAST IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF LESS RAINFALL OCCURS... IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO REVISE
THIS STAGE FORECAST DOWNWARD.
1167. LargoFl
Good Morning..err evening to you down there..say aussie..is it summer now by you?..I have no idea
1168. LargoFl
GFS still has my area in the 70's at 150 hours......
Seems like the north and south have switched temperatures for a day. Aussie, hope you guys have cooled down a bit.

Kori, had a friend drive down to Opolousas this weekend, said the sides along 49 are really under water. You guys down there have had even more rain than we have.

Everyone have a great Monday and Aussie, have a great Tuesday.
1170. LargoFl
1 week from today still in the 70's..cold front where?..
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning..err evening to you down there..say aussie..is it summer now by you?..I have no idea

We are in our 2nd month of Summer. It was predicted to be hot but no one thought it would be this hot for this long, it's been brutal. Summer is December 1 -> February 28.
1172. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:

We are in our 2nd month of Summer. It was predicted to be hot but no one thought it would be this hot for this long, it's been brutal.
ok thanks aussie..yeah the weather has been strange alright this year
Do I get to pick which of these forecasts I want? I'll take the warmer one. :D Lol good morning all.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE REGION
THU AFTERNOON...THE END OF THE PRECIP WILL BE HERE!!! COOLER AND
DRY WX IS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.



Thursday-Sunday the sun returns to Southeast Texas with warmer temperatures each day.

1174. beell
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS still has my area in the 70's at 150 hours......


You have to go out about 240 hrs on the GFS for the real cold ADDED: for your part of the world. Based on 850mb temps alone, Upper 30's for the lows Thurs/Fri after next.

Cold air advection and breezy conditions would be a couple of factors to consider in dropping the temps a few more degrees.
1175. LargoFl
Looks like rain for me next monday,we need it.....
1176. LargoFl
Quoting beell:


You have to go out about 240 hrs on the GFS for the real cold.
ok thanks, lets see if it verifies..doesnt seem like winter here at all so far..
1177. SuzK
Quoting nymore:
Look at Embarrass MN it is colder than I' Falls. I have even drank at The Cold Spot Bar there years ago


Pellston MI also makes that claim!!
1178. LargoFl
well the 2 week forecast doesnt show any real cold for my area..we'll see what happens
1179. LargoFl
Any stupid people like this where YOU live..geez...ST. PETERSBURG --
A woman who was being chased on foot after stealing a cell phone in south St. Petersburg jumped into a police cruiser that was left running, took off and wasn't caught until she was spotted at a McDonald's across Tampa Bay, police said.
See those purple warnings in northeastern Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas, and west-central Mississippi? Those are Ice Storm Warnings. In these warning areas, ice accumulations of >.5" are expected.

1181. LargoFl
REMIND ME NEVER TO GO TO THE EVERGLADES.........."This thing is monstrous, it's about a foot wide," Kenneth Krysko, the herpetology collection manager at the Florida Museum of Natural History, said of the 17-foot-7-inch (5.35-metre) creature.

Scientists at the University of Florida-based museum examined the 164.5-pound (74.5-kilogram) snake on Friday as part of a government research project into managing the pervasive effect of Burmese pythons in Florida.

The giant snakes – native to southeast Asia and first found in the Everglades in 1979 – prey on native birds, deer, bobcats, alligators and other large animals.

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Seems like the north and south have switched temperatures for a day. Aussie, hope you guys have cooled down a bit.

Kori, had a friend drive down to Opolousas this weekend, said the sides along 49 are really under water. You guys down there have had even more rain than we have.

Everyone have a great Monday and Aussie, have a great Tuesday.
I'm getting a little bored of this wet pattern now. Bring on the nonzero chance for snow or something.
*yawn*
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Good MorningKori.
Good Morning Largo.
Warm and humid here this morning.
70F on da bayou.


Morning Doug.
1184. beell
Morning soundings a little dry, and lower levels still a little warm. Most of the radar returns may not be making it to the ground as frozen precip.


(click for full image)






Maria LaRosa %u263C %u200F@twcMariaLaRosa

What Beijing's record-breaking air pollution looked like from space over the weekend.

1km image
250m size image
@AnthonyQuintano Anthony Quintano
New York City is playing hide and seek
NYC in the fog.
Not gonna lie...
Being in New York, I always have to take it with a grain of salt when I see winter weather advisories posted for the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama areas, when we're in the 50's ...Rochester, NY maxed out at 69 degrees yesterday. I want my snow back :/
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Not gonna lie...
Being in New York, I always have to take it with a grain of salt when I see winter weather advisories posted for the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama areas, when we're in the 50's. I want my snow back :/

Didn't you get 2 big snow events 2 years running, was it 2009 and 2010. Snowmagedon I think one was called.
1189. SuzK
Quoting AussieStorm:

We are in our 2nd month of Summer. It was predicted to be hot but no one thought it would be this hot for this long, it's been brutal. Summer is December 1 -> February 28.


Up north,(PA USA) we are about 1/2 way through meteorological winter. Will there be a heat wave again in Feb? Early spring again? Looks like the odds are 50/50. In the mean time, record-breaking winter cold coming first? The weather is more interesting worldwide day by day.
1190. VR46L
Got to feel for the folks in LA and MS it seems like it never stopped raining since Isaac

Loop Embedded

Quoting AussieStorm:

Didn't you get 2 big snow events 2 years running, was it 2009 and 2010. Snowmagedon I think one was called.


I think that snowmegadon refers to the February 10, 2010 storm that swept through Pennsylvania and the midAtlantic states.. that one missed us.

Last winter was abysmal, and we picked up 22 inches from October to March (compared to an average of 46 inches).

2010-2011 was a decent season. Our last respectable storm was in December 2010: 10 inches.

2009-2010 we had one storm over five inches.. an 8 incher.

But you are correct, aside from last year, we've had our share of storms. Sometimes its just hard to accept that it can snow on the deep south when it's warm here.
1192. ncstorm
Happy Monday Morning..

Via Meteorologist Tim Buckley from Facebook

Jimmy Kimmel showing how California Local News are reacting to the cold weather..LOL..
This is interesting. Victoria, TX - Light Snow

Link
Quoting LargoFl:
REMIND ME NEVER TO GO TO THE EVERGLADES.........."This thing is monstrous, it's about a foot wide," Kenneth Krysko, the herpetology collection manager at the Florida Museum of Natural History, said of the 17-foot-7-inch (5.35-metre) creature.

Scientists at the University of Florida-based museum examined the 164.5-pound (74.5-kilogram) snake on Friday as part of a government research project into managing the pervasive effect of Burmese pythons in Florida.

The giant snakes – native to southeast Asia and first found in the Everglades in 1979 – prey on native birds, deer, bobcats, alligators and other large animals.
Largo....Saturday was the kick-off for the "Python Challenge" in south Florida. Almost 800 people have signed up to hunt the Burmese Python with cash prizes. Not sure how many snake were captured. PETA is speaking out regarding how the snakes are disposed of. They say that decapitating the snake in inhumane. They say the snake will live an hour after losing it's head... Just stating what I read... Not for or against.
Today is the 55th anniversary of tragic loss



Typhoon Ophelia cuts a swath of destruction across Jaluit Atoll, Ponape, Truk, and Yap and finally, on January 15, 1958, brings down an Air Force WB-50 reconnaissance plane, claiming the lives of all ten crewmen.

Aircraft Commander- Captain Albert J Lauer

Pilot- Captain Clyde W Tefertiller

Weathar Observer- Captain Marcus G Miller

Navigator- First Lieutenant Courtland Beeler III

Navigator- First Lieutenant Paul J Buerkle Jr

Flight Engineer- Technical Sergeant De1ivan L Gordon

Flight Engineer- Staff Sergeant Kenneth L Tetzloff

Radio Operator- Staff Sergeant Kenneth L Houseman

Radio Operator- Airman First Class Randolph C Watts

Weather Technician- Airman First Class Bernard G Tullgren
It is very moist and warm outside right now.Which feels very disgusting especially for this time a year.If winter is going to be like this I might as well start renting out a house in Florida.Thats what it feels like at the moment.Winter come back and kick spring in the a**.
Wowww!!!!!! The Equatorial Pacific waters are continuing cooling down
1198. pcola57
Good morning All..
i wonder how much this map will change after todays rain..
Getting steady rain here in Grennville,SC..
Started around 4am and still raining as of this post..
.45 so far since midnight..


Tonga prepared for possible cyclone

Tonga is gearing up for a possible cyclone as a tropical depression heads for the centre of the island chain.

Forecasters say it may develop into a cyclone in the next day or so.

Acting Prime Minister, Samiu Vaipulu, told Radio Australia says there's a good chance a tropical depression will pass by the island chain without strengthening into a cyclone.

Mr Vaipulu says there'll be another meeting of Tonga's National Emergency Management Office in the morning to discuss any developments overnight.

He says although the news is good, the tropical depression is still out there and it could turn around, gather strength and come back.

And the government is preparing in case the worst does happen.

"We are starting to identify evacuation centres... We'll start announcing which places to go to and things like that if this develops into a tropical cyclone." he said.

Mr Vaipulu says weather information and a warning on the possible threat started on radio and television on Sunday.

National Emergency Management Office Director, Leveni Aho told Radio Australia forecasters expect the weather front to move over Tonga late on Tuesday afternoon.

But he says the authorities are on standby.

"We have alerted most of the utilities, the police force, Tonga Defence Services, Tonga Red Cross and all the associated agencies that deal with disaster management." he said.

Mr Aho says no public warnings have been issued as the depression has not yet formed into a cyclone.


© ABC 2013
1200. hydrus
1201. LargoFl
Quoting hydrus:
wow do you think that strong one will make it into central florida Hydrus?
Quoting stormchaser19:
Wowww!!!!!! The Equatorial Pacific waters are continuing cooling down

Shhh, I don't want a La Nina. I'll take a La Nina Winter though.
1203. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
It is very moist and warm outside right now.Which feels very disgusting especially for this time a year.If winter is going to be like this I might as well start renting out a house in Florida.Thats what it feels like at the moment.Winter come back and kick spring in the a**.
..well i saw a 15 day prediction for DC and the high was 21 for the day..we'll see if that pans out
Oh you should have seen me and other winter/snow loving Washingtonians telling off the sissy ones yesterday.They forget it's January and not April.But let's not worry because a high of 42 is forecast for tomorrow.So they'll be bitten in the butt ;-).

Yes largo I saw that.I want my heavy coat to go to work this winter.
1205. LargoFl
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo....Saturday was the kick-off for the "Python Challenge" in south Florida. Almost 800 people have signed up to hunt the Burmese Python with cash prizes. Not sure how many snake were captured. PETA is speaking out regarding how the snakes are disposed of. They say that decapitating the snake in inhumane. They say the snake will live an hour after losing it's head... Just stating what I read... Not for or against.
yeah its all over the news..i just watched a show on that snake..the hunter who has lived in the glades all his life said those snakes can eat a BEAR!!..sorry Peta but that snake has no business being in florida..some jerk many years ago let loose some snakes in the glades NOW look at their population..it has no business being in florida,after awhile it will start spreading out into populated area's..just imagine your child siding up to one..look mommy a snake..geez
1206. LargoFl
Quoting beell:


You have to go out about 240 hrs on the GFS for the real cold ADDED: for your part of the world. Based on 850mb temps alone, Upper 30's for the lows Thurs/Fri after next.

Cold air advection and breezy conditions would be a couple of factors to consider in dropping the temps a few more degrees.
it would be good for lows in the 20's and low 30's here..get rid of some of these bugs lol..god its awful walking thru the park..its like summertime
@Quakeprediction predicts a 7.4 quake likely from the LA Airport to Oceanside area in a 1/17-1/22 window.

*NOTE*

Remember, KNOW ONE can predict a quake. Any quake prediction is just a guess and 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% wrong.
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah its all over the news..i just watched a show on that snake..the hunter who has lived in the glades all his life said those snakes can eat a BEAR!!..sorry Peta but that snake has no business being in florida..some jerk many years ago let loose some snakes in the glades NOW look at their population..it has no business being in florida,after awhile it will start spreading out into populated area's..just imagine your child siding up to one..look mommy a snake..geez
Now that's one thing that makes me angry is that now the Everglades has become one big snake infestation.Unfortunately the warm moist tropical environment supports their growth/expansion.Maybe if you guys had a couple of days in the 20's down there that'll kill off half of them.I see pictures of alligators and other animals being swallowed whole.Disgusting.
1209. LargoFl
is LA swampy?..they sure do get alot of rain there huh..
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah its all over the news..i just watched a show on that snake..the hunter who has lived in the glades all his life said those snakes can eat a BEAR!!..sorry Peta but that snake has no business being in florida..some jerk many years ago let loose some snakes in the glades NOW look at their population..it has no business being in florida,after awhile it will start spreading out into populated area's..just imagine your child siding up to one..look mommy a snake..geez


Right on, Largo. They have no business in the Glades.

I'm afraid a child being devoured by one of these snakes is now only a matter of time. After that the public out-cry will be deafening.
Yikes!
Quoting AussieStorm:
@Quakeprediction predicts a “7.4+” quake “likely” from the LA Airport to Oceanside area in a 1/17-1/22 window.

Quoting AussieStorm:
@Quakeprediction predicts a “7.4+” quake “likely” from the LA Airport to Oceanside area in a 1/17-1/22 window.


??????????????
1213. hydrus
1214. LargoFl
Quoting percylives:


Right on, Largo. They have no business in the Glades.

I'm afraid a child being devoured by one of these snakes is now only a matter of time. After that the public out-cry will be deafening.
yes the state should go in there and wipe them all out before a kid does get killed..its just a matter of time
1215. LargoFl
CPC update issued today has Nino 3.4 at La Nina threshold. See the update at my ENSO blog.

Link
http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/hoaxes/quake.asp
why so irresponsible Aussie.. by now, you Have to understand what the Internet is, and produces, and you Have to do Your own homework to be responsible.

please don't be so irresponsible!
Quoting AussieStorm:
@Quakeprediction predicts a “7.4+” quake “likely” from the LA Airport to Oceanside area in a 1/17-1/22 window.


Predict Earthquake is not a big deal!!!!!!!!Nobody Knows
Quoting LargoFl:
yes the state should go in there and wipe them all out before a kid does get killed..its just a matter of time
They've been trying to do something about it but due to the marshy nature of the place the snakes can easily hide themselves and their nest.But they do need to get rid of those monsters.In the Chesapeake and lake Michigan they have this areas where its these electrical currents flowing threw the water that will electrocute anything.But that means the native wild life will also be in danger.
If that comes true, that's quite a prediction!
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Yikes!

Quoting stormchaser19:


??????????????


Not much to worry about, if you go to there twitter page, they have predictions everyday. None have come true.
1222. LargoFl
.............
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
CPC update issued today has Nino 3.4 at La Nina threhold. See the update at my ENSO blog.

Link
Well looks like another active hurricane season is in the works....We will yet again be spoiled with tracking lots of storms.Their is only so long we can go before another season like 1997 or 2009 appears...
Quoting Minnemike:
http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/hoaxes/quake.asp
why so irresponsible Aussie.. by now, you Have to understand what the Internet is, and produces, and you Have to do Your own homework to be responsible.

please don't be so irresponsible!

Unfortunately some people believe this tripe. I certainately do not believe this prediction It has spawned other twitter accounts predicting quakes around Japan. It's sickening.
Quoting AussieStorm:
@Quakeprediction predicts a “7.4+” quake “likely” from the LA Airport to Oceanside area in a 1/17-1/22 window.
Well, I'm not too worried about it. You just can't predict earthquakes.
1226. LargoFl
aw hon, go play outback...hey mom look what we found..
Earthquake Forecasts ‏@Quakeprediction 11Jan
Expecting major earthquake today - 6.6 to 7.6 earthquake is likely in the Los Angeles Airport to Oceanside area !

Earthquake Forecasts ‏@Quakeprediction 13Jan
10 HOUR WARNING; 6.6 to 7.6 earthquake is likely in the Los Angeles Airport to Oceanside area - next 10 hrs;

Earthquake Forecasts ‏@Quakeprediction 1h
(Jan 14) or (Jan 17-22) - Very strong earthquake (7.4+) is likely Los Angeles airport to Oceanside

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

you'd think they'd give up after predicting it so often and nothing happens, I guess a broken clock is right twice a day. Maybe they'll be right sooner or later, then they'll say, we predicted it. What a load of hogwash.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, I'm not too worried about it. You just can't predict earthquakes.

As you can see, nor can they.

Look at this one....
Earthquake Forecasts %u200F@Quakeprediction
Dangerous earthquake coming to the LA Basin in the next 24 hours. Most likely 6.0 to 7.0 (Jan 6 to Jan 8)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 PM CST SUN JAN 13 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 01/12/13 TORNADO EVENT ...

.REFERENCE TORNADO... EASTERN DE SOTO PARISH...FAR NORTHWEST RED RIVER
PARISH...AND FAR SOUTHEAST CADDO PARISH

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 110 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 7.25 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 300 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 2

START DATE: JAN 12 2013
START TIME: 11:30 PM CST
START LOCATION: 7 MILES SE OF FRIERSON LA / DE SOTO PARISH
START LAT/LON: 32.1843 / -93.5888

END DATE: JAN 12 2013
END TIME: 11:41 PM CST
END LOCATION: 15 MILES SE OF THE SHREVEPORT CITY LIMITS...BETWEEN HWY 1
AND THE RED RIVER
END_LAT/LON: 32.2565 / -93.5032

SURVEY_SUMMARY: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED
DAMAGE FROM A STRONG EF-1 TORNADO THAT BEGAN 7 MILES SE OF FRIERSON LA
IN DE SOTO PARISH. MANY SNAPPED HARDWOOD TREES WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE
INITIAL TOUCH DOWN. THE TORNADO THEN TRACKED NORTHEAST INTO RED RIVER PARISH...
15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HALL SUMMIT CAUSING MAJOR DAMAGE TO A HOME AND TREES
ON PARISH ROAD 410. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED HWY 1...15 MILES SE OF THE
SHREVEPORT CITY LIMITS CAUSING MORE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO TWO VEHICLES AND
TWO TRAVEL TRAILERS AT THE PETRO HAWK NATURAL GAS SITE OFF OF HWY 1. TWO PEOPLE
WHO WERE LOCATED IN THE TRAVEL TRAILER SUSTAINED INJURIES DURING THIS
TORNADIC EVENT. THE TORNADO FINALLY DISSIPATED AS IT APPROACHED THE RED RIVER.
TREES TRUNKS WERE COMMONLY SNAPPED ALONG THE ENTIRE PATH. THIS DAMAGE IS
CONSISTENT WITH AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH ESTIMATED WINDS NEAR 110 MPH.
Quoting LargoFl:
aw hon, go play outback...hey mom look what we found..
Look how well they blend in with the environment.Those types of snakes either originated in china/India/Africa.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It is very moist and warm outside right now.Which feels very disgusting especially for this time a year.If winter is going to be like this I might as well start renting out a house in Florida.Thats what it feels like at the moment.Winter come back and kick spring in the a**.
Hahaha so you wouldn`t like Honduras at all :) Where I live temperatures vary from 28C to 33C sorry not good at Fahrenheit as we use celcius more but I think 30C is 86F
There's frustration among Torres Strait Island communities, after funding to fix the sea walls was approved, but at the expense of other key infrastructure. There's frustration among Torres Strait Island communities, which have been battling flooding at king tides every year for the past decade. The Queensland government today announced it will match federal funding of $12 million to repair damaged sea walls, but it that has come at a cost to other major infrastructure. Two months ago, islanders were asked if they wanted to redirect Major Infrastructure Project (MIP) funds to the wall. Using MIP funds will mean that other priorities such as sewage systems for Hammond Island and desalination plants for other islands without water will not go ahead. The National Seachange taskforce predicts that Australian waters will rise by 1.1 metres by the 2020. As yet, there has been no need for families on any island to relocate. The other four affected islands are Coconut, Yam, Warraber and Yorke Islands.
Quoting LargoFl:
aw hon, go play outback...hey mom look what we found..


Snakes are the reason why I'm never finding a job in or moving to Florida.
1237. LargoFl
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Snakes are the reason why I'm never finding a job in or moving to Florida.
aw they are cute and cuddly lol
Quoting AussieStorm:

Unfortunately some people believe this tripe. I certainately do not believe this prediction It has spawned other twitter accounts predicting quakes around Japan. It's sickening.
that's dandy for you Aussie, but why even 'post tripe' in the first place?
that's what i find sickening; that people blindly pass off dangerous nonsense, fear-inducing nonsense, and don't give a hoot to look into accuracy. this is what leads to so many debates becoming so heavily polarized!
Misinformation.
1239. LargoFl
Mississippi..............ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO START AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT: ICE ACCUMULATION OF O.10 TO 0.25 INCH IS EXPECTED WITH
SOME HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE

* OTHER IMPACTS: THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES...TREES AND POWER LINES. THIS
WILL CAUSE VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH ROADWAYS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM FROM THE PREVIOUS WARM
DAYS...SOME ICING ON ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ACCUMULATING
ICE ON TREES AND POWER LINES MAY CAUSE THEM TO FALL...RESULTING IN
DOWNED LINES AND SUBSEQUENT POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN
EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED
POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER.

&&

$$
Quoting LargoFl:
aw they are cute and cuddly lol
No, just no... LOL
They found the lost hiker in freezing CA..
1242. LargoFl
Bohonk..how is it there?.............
Quoting allancalderini:
Hahaha so you wouldn`t like Honduras at all :) Where I live temperatures vary from 28C to 33C sorry not good at Fahrenheit as we use celcius more but I think 30C is 86F
Not that I don't mind warm weather.Its just that When it's January I want it to be COLD not 60 degrees and muggy outside.That stuf can wait until April.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Earthquake Forecasts ‏@Quakeprediction 11Jan
Expecting major earthquake today - 6.6 to 7.6 earthquake is likely in the Los Angeles Airport to Oceanside area !

Earthquake Forecasts ‏@Quakeprediction 13Jan
10 HOUR WARNING; 6.6 to 7.6 earthquake is likely in the Los Angeles Airport to Oceanside area - next 10 hrs;

Earthquake Forecasts ‏@Quakeprediction 1h
(Jan 14) or (Jan 17-22) - Very strong earthquake (7.4+) is likely Los Angeles airport to Oceanside

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

you'd think they'd give up after predicting it so often and nothing happens, I guess a broken clock is right twice a day. Maybe they'll be right sooner or later, then they'll say, we predicted it. What a load of hogwash.


Yeah, but even quoting this bogus website is useless to the group.
Quoting Minnemike:
that's dandy for you Aussie, but why even 'post tripe' in the first place?
that's what i find sickening; that people blindly pass off dangerous nonsense, fear-inducing nonsense, and don't give a hoot to look into accuracy. this is what leads to so many debates becoming so heavily polarized!
Misinformation.


Ok, I fixed up the original post. Hope the added note helps.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not that I don't mind warm weather.Its just that When it's January I want it to be COLD not 60 degrees and muggy outside.That stuf can wait until April.
Yeah I know what you mean.I am like that when is the rainy season and it does not rain quite frustrating I would say.
The plants and animals here are very confused. Trees are kicking out pollin in mid January. Azaleas are blooming.
Lizards think it is spring time too making my yard look like a mini Jurassic Park. Even st Augustine grass lawns are growing with night time lows in the mid 50's. We aren't supposed to have to mow every weekend in January!
The medieval fair patrons will melt in their fur and leather costumes if something doesn't change soon.
@Luv2rvbig William Vining 
Flooded pasture land off of Dickey Springs Rd. Bessemer.

Quoting allancalderini:
Yeah I know what you mean.I am like that when is the rainy season and it does not rain quite frustrating I would say.
Yes it is.The trees are getting little "buds" on them now.I don't want to have another bad allergy season like last year..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Look how well they blend in with the environment.Those types of snakes either originated in china/India/Africa.
wash.....Snake are not the only problem here in south Florida, These are a few of the non-native species brought into Florida...Some as pets, some brought in to help eradicate another harmful species..... We have the Bufo Toad which kills our pets due to their deadly secretions.See them all of the time. A few Monitor Lizards have been spotted also. It's south Florida's tropical climate that helps these invasive creatures survive.. I have been fishing in some of the freshwater canal with my bf... I swear I have seen over 100 Iguanas...Big, Big, Bull Iguanas 7 foot long.Lat year I caught this fish while I had a shiner out for Largemouth bass in Lake Osborne. I hooked a big fish . I thought I had a monster fish. Which I did... It had to be 30" long... I had no idea what it was.. I took pictures. It swallowed the hook and died... FWC look at my pictures... It was a "Clown Knife Fish" They said it was producing like mad in Lake Osborne... Scary
1251. pcola57


Goodnight all. Have a good day. Stay warm and dry.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wash.....Snake are not the only problem here in south Florida, These are a few of the non-native species brought into Florida...Some as pets, some brought in to help eradicate another harmful species..... We have the Bufo Toad which kills our pets due to their deadly secretions.See them all of the time. A few Monitor Lizards have been spotted also. It's south Florida's tropical climate that helps these invasive creatures survive.. I have been fishing in some of the freshwater canal with my bf... I swear I have seen over 100 Iguanas...Big, Big, Bull Iguanas 7 foot long.Lat year I caught this fish while I had a shiner out for Largemouth bass in Lake Osborne. I hooked a big fish . I thought I had a monster fish. Which I did... It had to be 30" long... I had no idea what it was.. I took pictures. It swallowed the hook and died... FWC look at my pictures... It was a "Clown Knife Fish" They said it was producing like mad in Lake Osborne... Scary
Thankfully many invasive species(except for a specific few) are killed of here thanks to the winter months.So those snakes and lizard problems you guys have down there they couldn't survive up here.Maybe for only a few months they could..
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wash.....Snake are not the only problem here in south Florida, These are a few of the non-native species brought into Florida...Some as pets, some brought in to help eradicate another harmful species..... We have the Bufo Toad which kills our pets due to their deadly secretions.See them all of the time. A few Monitor Lizards have been spotted also. It's south Florida's tropical climate that helps these invasive creatures survive.. I have been fishing in some of the freshwater canal with my bf... I swear I have seen over 100 Iguanas...Big, Big, Bull Iguanas 7 foot long.Lat year I caught this fish while I had a shiner out for Largemouth bass in Lake Osborne. I hooked a big fish . I thought I had a monster fish. Which I did... It had to be 30" long... I had no idea what it was.. I took pictures. It swallowed the hook and died... FWC look at my pictures... It was a "Clown Knife Fish" They said it was producing like mad in Lake Osborne... Scary
Much of the problem is these local reptile stores that sell this cute little python, cute little snake, etc. Not using there head they forget that cute little python will weigh 100 pounds very soon... What do they do? They take the freekin' snake to the local park or lake when it gets too big to handle....
Quoting AussieStorm:
@Quakeprediction predicts a 7.4 quake likely from the LA Airport to Oceanside area in a 1/17-1/22 window.

*NOTE*

Remember, KNOW ONE can predict a quake. Any quake prediction is just a guess and 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% wrong.


Oh, brother. Don't talk to me about @Quakeprediction. I've been following them since September 2011 and I still have yet to see them correctly predict a quake. By the way, a few days ago the window ended around today. Now they're just shifting the time frame a week later. Large California earthquakes are notoriously hard to predict. I'll be surprised if they get this one right, or any other quake for that matter.

Now I admit, I still maintain that I did indirectly predict the 2010 Chile earthquake, though that was probably just a fluke, as I saw an ENSO-related surface water anomaly offshore the 1960 Valdivia zone in the two weeks leading up to the quake. I did not predict the Haiti earthquake or the Japan earthquake.

Goodnight, Aussie. It's only 22C in Brisbane.
Good Morning from North Florida. Sunny, muggy, and with a high of 81 today..........In Mid-Jan.
Good surf today...





Quoting LargoFl:
Bohonk..how is it there?.............
Dry, mostly cloudy, got down to only 34, forecasted low was in the 20's. Really not bad, still praying for rain. It rains once then it is weeks or months before it rains again here that equals drought every time, LOL. Have a great day!
Good Morning All, Colder than %^&** here this morning. It is 39.4 and the low was 38.2@5:56. Not moving up very fast and windy as hell.

This from 20 minutes ago at KRAL (airport)

40 °F
Clear
Windchill: 32 °F
Humidity: 16%
Dew Point: -4 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 30 mph
Pressure: 30.26 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah its all over the news..i just watched a show on that snake..the hunter who has lived in the glades all his life said those snakes can eat a BEAR!!..sorry Peta but that snake has no business being in florida..some jerk many years ago let loose some snakes in the glades NOW look at their population..it has no business being in florida,after awhile it will start spreading out into populated area's..just imagine your child siding up to one..look mommy a snake..geez


Actually, I recall reading some years ago that there had been an exotic animal importer, with a huge inventory, directly in the path of Andrew, back in '92. There was no trace of the operation in which they had been housed, once the storm was over. I understand that there are all sorts of pestilent creatures now in South Florida, not native to the area... monitors, pythons ...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now that's one thing that makes me angry is that now the Everglades has become one big snake infestation.Unfortunately the warm moist tropical environment supports their growth/expansion.Maybe if you guys had a couple of days in the 20's down there that'll kill off half of them.I see pictures of alligators and other animals being swallowed whole.Disgusting.


"A couple of days in the '20's" would kill off many things, .... trees, sagos, manatees ... but probably not snakes.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Good surf today...







Well, some people dont follow the warnings and a person drowned in Loiza PR.

The strong waves of pine nuts yesterday caused the second drowning there this year, on this occasion, a 40-year-old man, Juan Sánchez Hernández.

The individual, a merchant father of three children (8, 15 and 17 years), was enjoying a family picnic in the area of La Pocita of Loíza.

According to agent Enrique Alverio, Sanchez Hernandez was standing on a reef next to his eight year old son and a friend when strong waves dragged them offshore. His friend and the child managed to return to shore. The body of the deceased was spotted by a police helicopter to a quarter of a mile from the shore, after which it was rescued.

"A coup occurred in the head, forehead, apparently was unconscious", said Alverio Rivera.

Child Correa, of the State Agency for the management of emergency and disaster management, regretted what happened since, he said, in the area is it had warned, in captions, of the danger of strong hangovers. "Be warned but is discretion of the person," he said.

Rose Velazquez, of the Office of emergency management, Loíza, said that even searched the body of a tourist drowned in the area on 1 January. "Everything has a purpose of the Lord," said, meanwhile, the daughter of the deceased, who yesterday was late together widow, brothers and other relatives waiting in the grounds of the maritime unit of Loiza for Institute of forensic sciences collected the body.

Link
Quoting Skyepony:
There's frustration among Torres Strait Island communities, after funding to fix the sea walls was approved, but at the expense of other key infrastructure. There's frustration among Torres Strait Island communities, which have been battling flooding at king tides every year for the past decade. The Queensland government today announced it will match federal funding of $12 million to repair damaged sea walls, but it that has come at a cost to other major infrastructure. Two months ago, islanders were asked if they wanted to redirect Major Infrastructure Project (MIP) funds to the wall. Using MIP funds will mean that other priorities such as sewage systems for Hammond Island and desalination plants for other islands without water will not go ahead. The National Seachange taskforce predicts that Australian waters will rise by 1.1 metres by the 2020. As yet, there has been no need for families on any island to relocate. The other four affected islands are Coconut, Yam, Warraber and Yorke Islands.


Wow!

That's quite a prediction! Over a meter in less than 7 years...?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thankfully many invasive species(except for a specific few) are killed of here thanks to the winter months.So those snakes and lizard problems you guys have down there they couldn't survive up here.Maybe for only a few months they could..


They do quite well in sewers and similar below ground systems ... New York City has some amazing tales related to that. They sound like urban legend.... but some of them are true.
Quakeprediction has a 2% accuracy since May.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Morning All, Colder than %^&** here this morning. It is 39.4 and the low was 38.2@5:56. Not moving up very fast and windy as hell.

This from 20 minutes ago at KRAL (airport)

40 °F
Clear
Windchill: 32 °F
Humidity: 16%
Dew Point: -4 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 30 mph
Pressure: 30.26 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles


We are up to minus 4 F here. Snow squeaks like crazy, walking on it, once it gets down in the single digits and lower.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Quakeprediction has a 2% accuracy since May.


or say it sucks... (98%)
"...The body of the deceased was spotted by a police helicopter to a quarter of a mile from the shore, after which it was rescued.
..."


...Just in time, no doubt!
Quoting LargoFl:
Bohonk..how is it there?.............



wow...after severe weather they have to deal with ice...
@WunderAngela

"The thermometers are lying" is really the last stand in climate denial, eh?
Is a Planetary Cooling Spell Straight Ahead? NASA: We May Be On the Verge of a %u201CMini-Maunder%u201D Event.

Link

By the way, is there any ongoing real-time measurement of what (in milliwatts / M^2, say) the sun is hitting the earth with across the whole spectrum? Is the ongoing variation is as dramatic as it is with the Xrays as per the space weather site...?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1273. bappit
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Wow!

That's quite a prediction! Over a meter in less than 7 years...?

Must be a typo.
1274. hydrus