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2012: warmest and 2nd most extreme year in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:01 PM GMT on January 08, 2013

The contiguous U.S. smashed its record for hottest year on record in 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The annual U.S. average temperature was 3.3°F above the 20th century average, and was an astonishing 1.0°F above the previous record, set in 1998. It is extremely rare for an area the size of the U.S. to break an annual average temperature record by such a large margin. Nineteen states, stretching from Utah to Massachusetts, had annual temperatures which were record warm. An additional 26 states had a top-ten warmest year. Only Georgia (11th warmest year), Oregon (12th warmest), and Washington (30th warmest) had annual temperatures that were not among the ten warmest in their respective period of records. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt reported, of the approximately 5,500 U.S. stations in the NCDC database, 362 recorded their all-time highest temperature during 2012, and none recorded an all-time coldest temperature. This was the most since the infamous Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Approximately 7% of the contiguous U.S. experienced an all-time hottest day during 2012, and every state in the contiguous U.S. except Washington had at least one location experience its warmest year on record. One notable warmest year record occurred in Central Park, in New York City, which has a period of record dating back 136 years.

The 2012 weather was also very dry, and the year ranked as the 15th driest year on record for the contiguous U.S. Wyoming and Nebraska had their driest year on record, and eight other states had top-ten driest years. The area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought peaked at 61.8% during July. This was the largest monthly drought footprint since the Dust Bowl year of 1939.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for U.S. states in 2012. Nineteen states had their warmest year on record, and an additional 26 were top-ten warm. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Temperatures for the contiguous U.S. in 2012, compared to the previous record warmest and coldest years in U.S. history. The annual U.S. average temperature was 3.3°F above the 20th century average, and was an astonishing 1.0°F above the previous record, set in 1998. It is extremely rare for an area the size of the U.S. to break an annual average temperature record by such a large margin. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Second most extreme year on record
The year 2012 was the second most extreme on record in the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, plus winds from landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes. The CEI was 39% in 2012, approximately double the average of 20%. The only year that was more extreme since CEI record keeping began in 1910 was 1998--the United States' previous warmest year on record. Since Hurricane Sandy was not considered a hurricane when it came ashore, that storm did not contribute to the 2012 CEI. If one plots up the CEI without using the tropical storm and hurricane indicator, 2012 is the most extreme year on record, beating out 1998, 46% to 42%. During 2012, a record 87% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, crushing the previous record of 62% set in 1934; 74% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10% in 2012 (2nd highest on record.) The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 34%, which was the 4th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in the Dust Bowl year of 1934, and during 1954 and 1956, were more extreme, averaged over the entire year. Heavy 1-day downpours were near average in 2012, though, with 9% of nation experiencing a top-10% extreme, compared to the average of 10%.


Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) pegged 2012 as the second most extreme year on record, with 39% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather. This is approximately double the average of 20% (heavy black line.)

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. MahFL
Quoting AussieStorm:

Don't know, I don't use a browser that has so many hole in it it's worse then swiss cheese. Maybe you should try Chrome or Firefox.


Not allowed to as I am @work.
Quoting MahFL:


Of course not, but men and animals are not the same, but miners do know the risks.....

We are both Mammals. People would risk there lives to help out the whales just like they'd risk there life to help the men trapped in the mine. Isn't it the right thing to do to help out another mammal when it is in trouble. We help out all the other whales they beach themselves, sometime for unexplained reasons.
I feel for the whales. They are magnificent animals. Rats on the other hand are mammals too. I kill them with wild abandon. I am in the pest control business tho.
504. MahFL
Lake Travis in TX has risen nearly 6 inches with the current storm system.
hate those disgusting big eared rats nothing a feral cat cant take care of though merritt island florida is a rat hole
Everyone have a great Thursday and Aussie, have a great Friday! It's time to float the car to work for me.
WATCH OUT for Tornado's LA and MISS today..........
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

TORNADO WATCH 2 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MSC001-005-021-029-031-035-037-045-047-061-063-06 5-067-073-077-
085-091-109-113-127-129-147-157-102000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0002.130110T1215Z-130110T2000Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN HANCOCK HARRISON
JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAWRENCE
LINCOLN MARION PEARL RIVER
PIKE SIMPSON SMITH
WALTHALL WILKINSON
$$
Bark beetles chewing their way through US forests

They've already destroyed an area of forest equivalent to the size of Washington state (70,000 sq miles). With rising temperatures, they're moving into higher elevations where the trees have not evolved defences against them.

Healthy trees at lower altitudes secrete toxins to deal with them, but the defences of heat stressed trees are weakened during droughts, so they are more likely to die during an infestation.

Bit of a double whammy.

Link
Dangerous weather today folks.................
Quoting MahFL:


Let them die, the ocean will recycle them......


Ouch.

You know, we humans consider ourselves the 'dominant' species.
But that comes with big responsibilities.
One of which is to care for and protect other species.

We dont do it very well, but still.....
How did texas do with their rains?..hope it helped the drought alot
Quoting yonzabam:
Bark beetles chewing their way through US forests

They've already destroyed an area of forest equivalent to the size of Washington state (70,000 sq miles). With rising temperatures, they're moving into higher elevations where the trees have not evolved defences against them.

Healthy trees at lower altitudes secrete toxins to deal with them, but the defences of heat stressed trees are weakened during droughts, so they are more likely to die during an infestation.

Bit of a double whammy.

Link

Ouch.

This is happening all over the Northern Hemisphere.
It's one of the issues of Climate Change that is most worrying.
Pests (beetles, fungi, etc) can also adapt to things like temp. rise very fast, since their life-cycles are so fast.

A tree will live for up to 100 years, a beetle for a couple of days.
The beetle will evolve to new conditions in generations (months) while a tree will take centuries.

It's a big problem.
GFS at 36 hours..
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...BELLE RIVER...STEPHENSVILLE...
CENTRAL ST. MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...PATTERSON...FRANKLIN...BURNS POINT...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...

* UNTIL 700 AM CST

* AT 622 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...OVER BURNS POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTH AT
35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
FRANKLIN BY 625 AM CST...
CHARENTON BY 630 AM CST...
PATTERSON MEMORIAL AIRPORT...PATTERSON AND BAYOU VISTA BY 640 AM
CST...
BERWICK BY 645 AM CST...
BELLE RIVER AND STEPHENSVILLE BY 655 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

RADAR INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITH THESE STORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE WARNING.
Folks in these danger area's..let us know how it is ok..............BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
634 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CATAHOULA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LARTO...
CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MONTEREY...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...
FRANKLIN PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINNSBORO...
SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANGHAM...
WESTERN TENSAS PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHEZ...
WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 632 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. ESTIMATED RADAR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES... HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPOKANE...WILDSVILLE...LEE BAYOU...WALLACE RIDGE...WALTERS...
ARCHIE...MANIFEST...AIMWELL...SHERWOOD...ENTERPRIS E...ROSEFIELD...
HELENA...COOTER POINT...NEWLIGHT...JIGGER...LIDDIEVILLE...
BUCKNER...ALTO...CHURCH HILL...CRANFIELD...STANTON...PINE RIDGE...
WISNER...WEST FERRIDAY...WATERPROOF...JONESVILLE AND CLAYTON

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
THREE HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


WWUS40 KWNS 101216
WWP2

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

WT 0002
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%
&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 0.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 22035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2
Good Morning/Afternoon/Evening folks

Fort Myers Florida broke a temp record yesterday. Our high reached 88°. Our average temp should be 75° for this time of year
519. VR46L
Stay safe folks!!!

Quoting LargoFl:
How did texas do with their rains?..hope it helped the drought alot

Can't speak for Texas, but here in Northwestern Arkansas...... damp to wet asphalt is about all. Closest reporting station has a storm total of 0.06". That's up in the purple area.
Link
Quoting VR46L:
Stay safe folks!!!




Wow. Look at that rain. Exciting!! Not the flash flooding of course.

Boy, I wish they can get that in Northern Illinois.

Boy do I wish they can!!!

Morning, Liz.

Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good Morning/Afternoon/Evening folks

Fort Myers Florida broke a temp record yesterday. Our high reached 88. Our average temp should be 75 for this time of year


Wow! Incredible. Give me that any day!!


Quoting MahFL:
Whats the damn script that IE keeps warning me about on this page ?


I have to use IE at work too and I freeze up alot on this site because of the scripts they allow to run. Folks with Foxfire and Chrome also are reporting it hits them too
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I have to use IE at work too and I freeze up alot on this site because of the scripts they allow to run. Folks with Foxfire and Chrome also are reporting it hits them too
WU is fine for me on Firefox and Chrome but not on IE. It is pretty slow and a script error message appears from time to time.

Good morning everyone, I am very glad to see Texas and surrounding areas have been getting beneficial rain.
525. MahFL
Quoting LargoFl:
How did texas do with their rains?..hope it helped the drought alot


It barely put a dint in it, from what I read. They will need many more storms on a regular basis.
GOOD MORNING EVERYONE!
Quoting wxchaser97:
WU is fine for me on Firefox and Chrome but not on IE. It is pretty slow and a script error message appears from time to time.

Good morning everyone, I am very glad to see Texas and surrounding areas have been getting beneficial rain.



Morning, WxChaser.

Some cold shots for you in Michigan appearing more likely later in the forecast run. Check out the 06 GFS, for instance.

Link

I know Firefox needs some add ons to run the loop, but if you can get it going, you may be in luck for some cold and snow.



Scrub fires destroy Christchurch homes



Four houses were believed destroyed, residents were evacuated and firefighters treated for smoke inhalation as scrub fires burnt out of control on Christchurch's south-western fringe tonight.

Ten people were rescued in a "snap rescue'' from a property at the fire on Shands Rd.
"They got in fast and got out fast'' said fire service centre manager Ian Lynn.

Selwyn District Mayor Kelvin Coe said appliances from all over the region helped fight the Selwyn Road blaze, including crews from Banks Peninsula. "All hands are on deck.''
They would be at the site well into tomorrow, he said.

Anybody who had been evacuated because of the fires was urged to stay with friends or family. "For anyone who can't, we have a welfare centre being set up at the Lincoln Events Centre to cater for any of their needs,'' Mr Coe said.

Roads were blocked to stop traffic entering the area, although residents were let through the cordons to salvage what they could in case their homes were affected.

The main seat of the fire, at Prebbleton, was under control by about 8.30pm and helicopters with monsoon buckets were concentrating on attacking hotspots, police at a checkpoint in Lincoln said.

However, the wind was still strong and firefighters were taking no chances in case of flare-ups.

Critical to beating the blaze was preventing it from jumping across Springs Road, police said. Hedges and silos near Springs Rd were engulfed at the peak of the blaze, but firefighters managed to keep it from jumping Springs Rd into what would have been dry, open pastureland.

Student Emily Spink was in tears when she came home to find her family home in the firing line of the fire.
"Mum and dad are away, and they've left me in charge,'' she sobbed.
The Spink family's lifestyle block on Robinsons Rd was downwind from the flames.

While four helicopters filling monsoon buckets from swimming pools and irrigation tanks had contained the blaze, the roaring nor'west wind continued to fan it.

Miss Spink was "shocked'' when she found her house was behind the cordon.
"I don't know what I'm going to do,'' she said.
Her parents were outside of cellphone and web coverage while holidaying at Gore Bay in North Canterbury.
"I'm all by myself and there's always a chance the worst can happen.''

Farmer John Quinn leaned on a fencepost at the Springs Rd cordon and shook his head, as firefighters battled to stop the blaze spreading to his property.
"Bloody nor'wester,'' he said.

In spite of the fact the fire at the Kimihia crop research centre could be stirred up to cross the road and engulf his farmhouse at any time, Mr Quinn was philosophical.
"Being in the rural life you get kicks in the guts all the time. You just have to start up again,'' he said. Fields had gone to seed, and coupled with a lack of spring rains and the relentless north-west winds, the fires were inevitable, he said.
"It's bloody dry.''

But he had confidence that the helicopters would bring the fires under control, even if it took a few days.
"It's got hold of the gorse, which has dry roots that go deep in the ground."
"They get it under control and then it sparks up again.''

Mother-of-three Sharon Honeywill raced home from Hornby, in Christchurch, when she first heard about the Shands Road fire. After negotiating four cordons, set up to keep people away from the escalating situation, she got as close as her neighbour's property but wasn't allowed any nearer. The paddock behind her lifestyle block was ablaze, and gusting winds were kicking up smoke and flames.
"I felt pretty defenseless,'' Mrs Honeywill said.
"I was looking at my house, wanting to go and save anything personal, but when you've got your family there to think about, you could only sit there and watch the paddocks burning.''

She described wild scenes of helicopters with monsoon buckets flying around, livestock and a neighbour's horse "running free''.
"We knew where the fire had started in some sort of gravel pit on Selwyn Rd, but could see other fires that had started as well."
"It was quite worrying, but luckily there was no-one at home when it started,'' Mrs Honeywill said. She was unsure if her house survived the fire, and fears the worst for her neighbour Clive Hartley.
"It's pretty much a gonner by the sounds of it. We're pretty worried about them.''

When she spoke to APNZ from a friend's house in nearby Lincoln, she was unsure where her and her three kids Brook, 9, TJ, 8, and six-year-old Ford would stay tonight.

Mrs Honeywill had contacted her insurers who told her they would not cover accommodation expenses because her house was "probably habitable''.
She good-naturedly cursed her husband, Jim, who is away working in Otago
"He's missed every major earthquake we've had, and now he's missed the fire. He's on his way home now and is going to get a rark up when he gets here I reckon.''

The wind fanning the Prebbleton fire was blowing towards Lincoln, four kilometres away, but Lincoln residents appeared to be remaining calm. The local pub was busy and plenty of vehicles were parked or being driven along the main street. However, people were remaining vigilant in case the blaze continued to move across the parched, open paddocks towards the town.

A number of firefighters were treated for smoke inhalation in the Prebbleton fire that started in Shands Road, TV3 reported.

It was almost 30C in Christchurch today, and combined with the nor-wester, incident controller Chris Hewitt described fire conditions as atrocious.

Earlier in the afternoon a single engine managed to get a small fire off Lunns Road in Middleton under control.

Christchurch firefighters also battled a suspicious blaze at a Christchurch primary school today. Emergency services were called to Beckenham School on Sandwich Road just before midday. A classroom and library block were well alight by the time fire crews arrived, shift manager Andrew Norris of southern fire communications said.

- STAR CANTERBURY
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
GOOD MORNING EVERYONE!


Morning Mate!


Flash flood risk downgraded for Canterbury river, NZ



The flash flood risk on the Waimakariri River has been downgraded.

Police received a report at 6pm tonight of a large surge of water visible from the air moving down the river.

It was sighted in the Christchurch McLeans Island area, and although river levels are high, the initial reported risk appears to have passed.

Police report that river levels remain high and may increase. "We request the public and recreational river users avoid the low-lying riverbank areas of all Canterbury rivers."

"At this time there appears no risk to properties."

- APNZ
Tornado hits Kaikoura, wild weather causes havoc in South Island, NZ



A small tornado in Kaikoura has lifted a roof and brought down power lines in the south island coastal township. Police received a call from a member of the public who reported the tornado on Beach road, in the centre of the town, about 9am, Southern Police communications shift manager Paul Reed said.

It lifted the roof off a house, which "went flying across the road", and is believed to have brought down power lines, which remained on the road, he said.

No one was hurt but power had been cut to several areas.

Police and emergency services remain at the scene and traffic had been halted.

The conditions had affected local businesses, with Whale Watch cancelling its tours today. It was also a casualty of the power cut, a staff member said.

The wild weather, which has washed out roads and flooded rivers cutting off much of the West Coast, is forecast to ease today.

MetService has lifted heavy rain warnings for Fiordland, Southland and Westland as well as the headwaters of Canterbury and Otago. However, a burst of heavy rain is still forecast for Buller, as a weakening front moves across the region this morning and early afternoon.

Severe gale warnings for Fiordland, Buller, Southland, Nelson, Kapiti coast, Manawatu and Taranaki have also been lifted.

Meanwhile, water levels at Lake Wakatipu are being closely monitored today after it rose half a metre during heavy rain overnight.

The levels at Wakatipu and Wanaka are forecast to peak around 3-6pm, however the Otago Regional Council does not expect levels to cause any flooding issues.

The Clutha is also high and several roads around the region have been closed because of flooding and the threat of landslips.

Heavy rain and lightning hit parts of the South Island overnight, sparking a number of emergency services callouts.

Fire officers attended several calls due to flooding, with Gore and Lumsden the most affected.

The Gore Volunteer Fire Brigade said flooding was widespread in the north and west of the area and it was called to seven houses where waters threatened to damages houses.

"There were some concerned residents about flood waters entering their houses," said chief fire officer Steve Lee.

Twenty-two fire volunteers, two appliances and a tanker worked to pump water from buildings. There were no evacuations and the weather was clearing, he said.

Crews from four tankers remained at Swannanoa, north Canterbury, dampening down hotspots where a scrub fire started at 3.30am.

Lightning caused six other fires, which have all been put out, in the South Island overnight.

NZTA said the heavy rain has closed sections of three South Island state highways, with SH94 closed from Lumsden to Te Anau due bridge washout at Whitestone River, SH6 is closed near Makarora because of washout damage to three sections of the road and at Haast Pass because of slips, while State Highway 73 is closed from Cass to Jacksons because of flooding and slips.

SH94 from Cascade Creek to Milford Sound also remains closed this morning until a road inspection is completed, while there are reports of further flooding on the road at Mirror Lakes overnight. SH94 from Mossburn to Te Anau was closed overnight however has since reopened.

SH6 near Makarora remains closed following further washouts overnight at Pipson Creek and Boggy Creek.

There is also minor flooding on SH1 at Gore and Lowburn, and also and Colac Bay.

Due to high winds and heavy rain the Milford Track was closed from 11am yesterday, with 120 independent walkers on the track across the three huts.

Thirty one walkers were expected to come off the track yesterday and the rest stayed an extra night.

Other parts of the South Island are facing fire dangers, with windy conditions expected.

A total fire ban imposed across Waitaki was in place as rural firefighters continue to warn farmers of the dangers of conducting burn-offs in windy conditions, in the wake of a severe gale warning issued for Otago yesterday.

MetService had forecast norwesterly gales of up to 120km/h in exposed areas of Otago and Waitaki Civil Defence emergency services manager Chris Raine said the ban would remain in place until the weather improved.

By nzherald.co.nz, APNZ, Otago Daily Times
WHOA!!!! Not Andrea so soon?



532. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:



Wow. Look at that rain. Exciting!! Not the flash flooding of course.

Boy, I wish they can get that in Northern Illinois.

Boy do I wish they can!!!

Morning, Liz.



Morning Ainslie !!!
Yep the Mid West could do with some of that getting up to them.
Near 1/4" of ice expected in Northern Minnesota

MINNESOTA

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
FRIDAY.

* LOCATION...NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY HOVER AT OR A BIT ABOVE
FREEZING...FROZEN GROUND SHOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING
SLIPPERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
I received 2.75" for the event





Great radar images, Rita. So, are you happy? Or a little disappointed since the majority of that precipitation stayed offshore and well to the east?

By the way, where's Chasey been lately? You think with the heavy rains over by her, she would be checking in...




Quoting RitaEvac:
I received 2.75" for the event




Not too shabby, Sir.



Quoting TomballTXPride:





Great radar images, Rita. So, are you happy? Or a little disappointed since the majority of that precipitation stayed offshore and well to the east?

By the way, where's Chasey been lately? You think with the heavy rains over by her, she would be checking in...






Happy! and disappointed....;)
Don't know, she hasn't been on in months
Quoting VR46L:


Morning Ainslie !!!
Yep the Mid West could do with some of that getting up to them.



And I wish they can. I wish the entire Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley can get in on the 2-4" rain totals.



Quoting RitaEvac:


Happy! and disappointed....;)



LOL. Now we just need about 10 more of these events for the next 10 weeks and we'll be making headway!!





TORNADO WARNING
LAC005-033-101415-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0002.130110T1350Z-130110T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
750 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GONZALES...
SOUTHEASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST

* AT 747 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GEISMER...
OR NEAR DONALDSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GEISMER BY 800 AM CST...
GONZALES BY 810 AM CST...
PRAIRIEVILLE BY 815 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
543. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WHOA!!!! Not Andrea so soon?





I doubt it ... from that run its a Storm that comes off Canada and dies mid Atlantic I will be surprised if it makes the transition
another one..stay safe folks...........THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILLS PLACE...BATON ROUGE...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 815 AM CST

* AT 742 AM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR OAK HILLS
PLACE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WESTMINSTER BY 755 AM CST...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BATON ROUGE BY 800 AM CST...
GREENWELL SPRING BY 815 AM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&
2 TORNADOS....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you have not seen it on the news yet, Boston has declared a Public Health Emergency following the worst United States flu outbreak in over a decade.

Source: Link



Best thing is to avoid people who do not cover their sneezes or coughs and to remember to wash your hands often, especially after touching common public objects like stair rails, elevator buttons, door handles. The strain has mutated into A and B. Good luck.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Morning Mate!


Flash flood risk downgraded for Canterbury river, NZ



The flash flood risk on the Waimakariri River has been downgraded.

Police received a report at 6pm tonight of a large surge of water visible from the air moving down the river.

It was sighted in the Christchurch McLeans Island area, and although river levels are high, the initial reported risk appears to have passed.

Police report that river levels remain high and may increase. "We request the public and recreational river users avoid the low-lying riverbank areas of all Canterbury rivers."

"At this time there appears no risk to properties."

- APNZ


Hi Aussie... I hope you're safe from the heat over there..

I've seen on the news how bad the wildfires are there...very dangerous

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Tornado Warning for: Eastern East Baton Rouge Parish in southeast Louisiana. This includes the cities of: Oak Hills Place, Baton Rouge, extreme east central Iberville Parish in southeast Louisiana.
Until 8:15 am CST.
At 7:42 am CST, the public reported a tornado near Oak Hills Place, moving northeast at 25 mph.
The severe thunderstorm will be near. Westminster by 7:55 am CST. 6 miles southeast of Baton Rouge by 8:00 am CST. Greenwell spring by 8:15 am CST.






















Recommended actions


The safest place to be during a tornado is under a workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. Seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in mobile homes or vehicles, evacuate them and get inside a substantial shelter. If no shelter is available, lie flat in the nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands. Please follow our office on both Facebook and Twitter For more information on severe weather and to relay weather reports and Photos.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 2:00 pm CST Thursday afternoon for Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi.

















Excerpted from ready.govBefore:
i think snowball has better chance in hell than Andrea lol
Quoting VR46L:


I doubt it ... from that run its a Storm that comes off Canada and dies mid Atlantic I will be surprised if it makes the transition
SOME MINOR TO MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF
PLAQUEMINES WITH THIS TORNADO.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hi Aussie... I hope you're safe from the heat over there..

I've seen on the news how bad the wildfires are there...very dangerous

Yeah, next 2 days it's going to get bad again. There is a fire down south near Yass which is burning towards Yass, it's a big fire and the strong westerlies we are expecting the next 2 days could push that fire dangerously close to the town. It's only a small country town, maybe 5000 people. The fire is about 10kms from Yass tonight.
553. VR46L
Quoting stormchaser43:
i think snowball has better chance in hell than Andrea lol


LOL . I would be inclined to agree with you !
real Nasty line of storms with tornados.........
ok i give up
Click pic for JAVA loop.
557. etxwx
Quoting RitaEvac:
I received 2.75" for the event


Good morning Rita and everyone. We received a total of 2.25 here. It was nice and steady so not a lot of run off, but the ponds came up to normal levels. I'm happy.
Quoting VR46L:


LOL . I would be inclined to agree with you !


Me three!

Quoting etxwx:


Good morning Rita and everyone. We received a total of 2.25 here. It was nice and steady so not a lot of run off, but the ponds came up to normal levels. I'm happy.


Coming home yesterday the small ponds along the road in my neighborhood were still down 2ft, water line is supposed to be where the grass is, and still see dirt showing below the grassline where water is supposed to be. Still have a ways to go then.
Quoting etxwx:


Good morning Rita and everyone. We received a total of 2.25 here. It was nice and steady so not a lot of run off, but the ponds came up to normal levels. I'm happy.


Mornin' etx, all. Got 2.94 here. Our neighbors to the east got a bunch. Looks like they're not done with the system yet.

561. VR46L
Thats one heck of a blob moving from the Gulf thru LA


Loop Embedded


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WHOA!!!! Not Andrea so soon?





Woah, this is cool.
YES!!!!!

Oh yeah.

Beautiful




Chicago gonna break it's record high tomorrow at 61????

I'm voting yes.




569. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:
YES!!!!!



Looks like the Mid West is going to get in on the action ....
Quoting VR46L:


Looks like the Mid West is going to get in on the action ....


Terrific!

They sure need it. Hopefully that can lay the groundwork down for the farmers having fields they can work with come planting time.


WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Northern States winter storm (GANDOLF)

click map for larger view...

Drought map will change drastically next week since it's not accompanying this weeks heavy rains
Quoting TomballTXPride:



Morning, WxChaser.

Some cold shots for you in Michigan appearing more likely later in the forecast run. Check out the 06 GFS, for instance.

Link

I know Firefox needs some add ons to run the loop, but if you can get it going, you may be in luck for some cold and snow.




Good morning Tomball,

I have seen the chances for cold air returning into Michigan and I am happy. Sorry I got to this later since I went to school. My school has Allan Huffman's site blocked, I don't know why, so I can't click the link. Hopefully you have been getting some rain from this system.
574. etxwx
Glad to see the midwest may get some much needed relief. All this nice rain here and the arrival of seed catalogs in the mail have turned my thoughts to gardening, so this caught my eye...

Uncommon Ground, a certified green restaurant in Chicago, hosts an organic farm on its rooftop. Zoran Orlic of Zero Studio Photography/Uncommon Ground

How Google Earth Revealed Chicago's Hidden Farms
by Sarah Zielinski NPR January 09, 2013
Excerpt: For years, various local groups in Chicago made lists of community gardens, where they assumed most of the food grown within city limits was coming from. But when researchers from crop scientist Sarah Taylor Lovell's lab at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign started looking closely at those lists, they found they were surprisingly inaccurate.
More here.
575. VR46L
error


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WHOA!!!! Not Andrea so soon?





The ECMWF is showing a spiral convective structure that wraps around the center, I wouldn't be surprised if this is marked as an invest.

Rain needs to be more west than it is, but we can use it too. Just hoped more would have been in AR, MO, OK, KS, IA, & NE.

Freezing rain in Duluth in mid Jan? Maybe C IL, but N MN?!

StL backed off a couple degrees for Fri high, now 67 forecast (believe record is 75 for that day though) If Chicago 61, they'll be close.
"A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet."


Link



"Much has been made of the probable connection between the Maunder Minimum, a 70-year deficit of sunspots in the late 17th-early 18th century, and the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters. The mechanism for that regional cooling could have been a drop in the suns EUV output; this is, however, speculative."



ECMWF showing potential development of Andrea.







Chaser!!! Long time no see you Isaac!!
YES, Skypony, that is a blob.



Sure enough, this appears to be Subtropical Storm Andrea being portrayed by the ECMWF at 96 hours.


GFS has it too, but starts it off as a slightly more hybrid system.


CMC is far less optimistic, but it's interesting to note where this develops: in a similar location to quite a few storms in 2012, just goes to show that the conditions are still quite similar. Odds are, that will change as we progress towards a more La Nina state this year (according to the ENSO models)
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
"A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet."


Link



"Much has been made of the probable connection between the Maunder Minimum, a 70-year deficit of sunspots in the late 17th-early 18th century, and the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters. The mechanism for that regional cooling could have been a drop in the suns EUV output; this is, however, speculative."



Interestingly enough, this from that same article: "Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature. 'If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal.' This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years."
584. eddye
ppl lets look at the models and see if they bring cold air 2 fl
Quoting eddye:
ppl lets look at the models and see if they bring cold air 2 fl


I thought this was a weather blog, not a texting session.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Interestingly enough, this from that same article: "Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature. 'If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal.' This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years."


I wan't trying to cherry pick to debunk AGW, I just thought it was interesting, as was this:

Link

"The solar cycle signals are so strong in the Pacific, that Meehl and colleagues have begun to wonder if something in the Pacific climate system is acting to amplify them. "One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system ... is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific." Using supercomputer models of climate, they show that not only "top-down" but also "bottom-up" mechanisms involving atmosphere-ocean interactions are required to amplify solar forcing at the surface of the Pacific."
yes, we could have Andrea...but in JANUARY?????

I have my record-breaking season feelings for 2013
Morning Folks........That is quite a strong rain soaked front moving across the Gulf States. Thankfully, it is not fully connected to the jet stream so it looks like more of a rain event as opposed to a significant tornado threat although watches are currently posted. Probably some pretty strong t-storms on tap as it pushes further East...........Almost feels like Summer at the moment along the Gulf Coast in the middle of January.

Link

Quoting Neapolitan:
Interestingly enough, this from that same article: "Raymond Bradley of UMass, who has studied historical records of solar activity imprinted by radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores, says that regional rainfall seems to be more affected than temperature. 'If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal.' This fits in with the conclusion of the IPCC and previous NRC reports that solar variability is NOT the cause of global warming over the last 50 years."


Yes. One has to wonder if all of an article is being read before someone posts a link to it and trying to show something different than what the article is saying. In all fairness to ChillinInTheKeys, no personal opinions or claims about the article were made by Chillin'. I had to give Chillin' credit for that.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I wan't trying to cherry pick to debunk AGW, I just thought it was interesting...
I didn't think that you were; my apologies if that's how my comment came across to you. No, I was merely noting that the article contained several interesting passages. Which it does...




I personally like cherry picking!
Quoting WDEmobmet:




I personally like cherry picking!

New York Governor Announces $1 Billion Green Bank And $1.5 Billion Solar Program
By Stephen Lacey on Jan 10, 2013 at 9:53 am


New York City officials are thinking more about climate resiliency in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. But adaptation — making the city more resilient to intensifying extreme weather — is only one part of an effective strategy.

Mitigating climate change through clean energy and other carbon reduction efforts is just as important. And New York Governor Andrew Cuomo seems to understand that.

In his State of the State address yesterday, Cuomo outlined plans for a new billion-dollar “green bank” to leverage private funds for deploying clean energy technologies, announced a 10-year expansion of the state’s solar program by increasing funds $150 million per year, and named a new cleantech czar to oversee the efforts. The cumulative impact could be a massive expansion of renewables and efficiency in New York.

...continued here.
Completely ruling out the sun as affecting the Earth's climate would be unscientific, wouldn't it??
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Completely ruling out the sun as affecting the Earth's climate would be unscientific, wouldn't it??
Certainly--as would be blaming solar variability for the recent decadal warming.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Certainly--as would be blaming solar variability for the recent decadal warming.


Holy crap. Did we just agree on something, Jim?

Our friend the NAM is spitting out some copious rainfall totals. Who-Hoo!!

Quoting TomballTXPride:


Holy crap. Did we just agree on something, Jim?



A sign of the apocalypse? LOL

Nope! Just a sign that there are common grounds people can stand on.
click image for link
Wow Keep, it is bizzare how linear those gulf instabilities are at 1015 on your animation, south of Texas and Louisianna (post #562).

None of those strips are induced? impressive. They are sure helping bring moisture up into the south. Too bad the vapor plume isn't curling more over western texas.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Tornado Warning for Central Lafourche Parish issued...

Nasty rotating cell moving rapidly across lower Terrebonne Parish headed into Lafourche...

Narelle

Rainbow Animated GIF