WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Great Drought of 2012 continuing into 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:01 PM GMT on December 28, 2012

Rain and snow from the massive winter storm that swept across the nation over the past week put only a slight dent in the Great Drought of 2012, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report. The area of Iowa in extreme or exceptional drought fell 9 percentage points to 32 percent, thanks to widespread precipitation amounts of 0.5" - 1.5". However, the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought remained virtually unchanged from the previous week, at 61.8%. According to NOAA's monthly State of the Drought report, the 61.8% of the U.S. covered by drought this week was also what we had during July, making the 2012 drought the greatest U.S. drought since the Dust Bowl year of 1939. (During December of 1939, 62.1% of the U.S. was in drought; the only year with more of the U.S. in drought was 1934.) The Great Drought of 2012 is about to become the Great Drought of 2012 - 2013, judging by the latest 15-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model. There is a much below-average chance of precipitation across the large majority of the drought region through the second week of January, and these dry conditions will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by the second week of January. The river level at St. Louis is currently -3.6', which is the 9th lowest level of the past 100 years. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the river to fall below -5' by January 4. This would be one of the five lowest water levels on record for St. Louis. At this water level, the river's depth will fall to 9' at Thebes, Illinois, which is the threshold for closing the river to barge traffic. The Army Corps of Engineers is working to dredge the river to allow barge traffic to continue if the river falls below this level, but it is uncertain if this will be enough to make a difference, unless we get some significant January precipitation in the Upper Mississippi watershed. The river is predicted to set a new all-time low by January 13 (Figure 4.)


Figure 1. The December 25, 2012 U.S. Drought Monitor showed that approximately 62% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.



Figure 2. Predicted 7-day precipitation for the period ending on Friday, January 4. Very few regions of the main U.S. drought area are predicted to receive as much as 0.5" of precipitation (dark green color.) Image credit: NOAA.

Long-term drought outlook
NOAA's December 20 Seasonal Drought Outlook called for drought to persist over at least 80% of the U.S. drought area through the end of March. I don't see any signs of a shift in the fundamental large-scale atmospheric flow patterns during the past few weeks, or in the model forecasts for the coming weeks, and it is good bet that drought will be a huge concern as we enter spring. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts an increased chance of drier than average conditions over southwestern portions of the drought region during the coming three months. In general, droughts are more likely in the Central U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) This is the current situation, though the equatorial tropical Pacific is only slightly cooler than average (0.2°C below average as of December 24). Most of the Midwest needs 3 - 9" of precipitation to pull out of drought.


Figure 3. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas need the most rain, 9 - 15".


Figure 4. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the Mississippi River to fall below -5' at St. Louis by January 4. At this level, the river may close to barge traffic due to low water. By January 13, the river is expected to fall to its lowest level on record, -6.2'. The record was set in January 1940, after the great Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s.


Figure 5. This Nov. 28, 2012 photo provided by The United States Coast Guard shows a WWII minesweeper on the Mississippi River near St. Louis, Missouri. The minesweeper, once moored along the Mississippi River as a museum at St. Louis before it was torn away by floodwaters in 1993, is normally completely under water. However, it has become visible--rusted but intact--due to near-record low river levels on the Mississippi. (AP Photo/United States Coast Guard, Colby Buchanan)

Links:
My post on Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger discussed how drought is our greatest threat from climate change.

Ricky Rood blogs about the Dust Bowl

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting whitewabit:


Why don't you take this somewhere else .. its been going on long enough and many here are tired of it !!!

"I'm not going to debate this with you anymore."
"Not going to debate this with you anymore."

"I'm not going to debate this with you anymore."
Quoting Skyepony:


Does these work for you? The gfdl & hwrf are storm specific & not for today but the rest have today's runs.
thank you i'll see
Kenya~ Ten people drowned early on Saturday morning after their houses were swept away by raging floods in Keiyo Valley. According to the area District Commissioner Arthur Bunde, four of those killed were members of the same family. The Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) which immediately moved in to help with the rescue efforts said the incident occurred around 3 am sweeping away houses while others were left submerged. KRCS said the early Saturday downpour left over 200 families affected in Kaptarakwa, Kabechei and Enego areas. Together with the Kerio South Provincial Administration and locals, the society continued with the rescue efforts to save people feared to be still trapped in the mud. The rescue efforts were however hampered by the ongoing rains in the affected areas. "The KRCS is working with the locals in the rescue efforts which have been slowed down by heavy rains, impassable roads and mud.

It's feared that many could still be trapped as the society has continued to receive calls from other affected people and on social media," KRCS stated. A temporary shelter was set up at Torongon Primary School to host over 70 families asked to move from areas identified as high risk with the ongoing rains expected to continue through to January. Alerts were issued to families living in areas prone to landslides and heavy flooding to move to higher ground. Rescue missions were also ongoing to move people to safer areas after the infamous River Nyando burst its banks. Since the December rains began, many Kenyans have been affected by heavy flooding and landslides, a common phenomenon during rainy seasons in the country. In Nairobi, Mathare, South ‘C' and Imara Daima areas were the most affected, according to KRCS. KRCS also called for caution by motorists driving around Naivasha, Nyeri, Iten, Kericho, Eldoret and Nanyuki where visibility remains poor and roads slippery due to the heavy downpour. The meteorological department forecast that the heavy rains will continue to January.
whats all have some of this on the house






happy new year



Angola~ Thirteen people died and 15 were injured in the southern Kuando-Kubango province, following the heavy rains throughout 2012. This information is part of the balance of the Civil Protection and Fire commission. According to the source, during the mentioned period, 315 residences were also destroyed. The source also says that the ravines continue in the province.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm not going to debate this with you anymore.

Any logical, reasonable person trying to stay as dry as possible in the rain knows they should get out of the rain as soon as possible (i.e. running).


Appeal to popular opinion is a fallacy.

It obviously wasn't true in Jamie and Adam's experiment.

Exposure time isn't the only variable.

The exposure RATE increased with running.

It may be that walking or running at different speeds produces different body mechanics which explains the difference..

There has got to be a rational explanation of why the first experiment worked. Obviously they didn't cheat or anything, so unless someone thinks it was a miracle, they need to be able to explain it.
Freda remains a well-organized cyclone:

Quoting RTSplayer:


Appeal to popular opinion is a fallacy.

It obviously wasn't true in Jamie and Adam's experiment.

Exposure time isn't the only variable.

The exposure RATE increased with running.

It may be that walking or running at different speeds produces different body mechanics which explains the difference..

There has got to be a rational explanation of why the first experiment worked. Obviously they didn't cheat or anything, so unless someone thinks it was a miracle, they need to be able to explain it.
I'm laughing at your argument right now cause you just keep going in circles.

Go ahead and walk in the rain if you'd like, I couldn't care less.
Happy New Years Taz!


0900 AM SNOW FLORA 38.67N 88.48W
12/29/2012 M5.0 INCH CLAY IL MESONET

10.0 TOTAL SNOW DEPTH



0245 PM SNOW O`HARA TOWNSHIP 40.50N 79.90W
12/29/2012 M4.5 INCH ALLEGHENY PA PUBLIC

SNOW DEPTH OF 9.5 INCHES
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats all have some of this on the house






happy new year





Thanks Taz and Happy New Years to You !!
Quoting belizeit:
could some one post a model link that would include Belize or Central America im at lost since GFS stopped working


Navy Model Page may help.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER MITCHELL (04U)
9:00 AM WST December 30 2012
======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low, Former Mitchell (995 hPa) located at 21.1S 110.2E or 415 km west northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The former cyclone is reported as moving south at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
(35 knots) Only in southern quadrants


Forecast and intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 23.0S 109.4E - 35 knots
24 HRS: 25.3S 108.4E - 30 knots
thanks evere one
Quoting Civicane49:
Freda remains a well-organized cyclone:



currently 90 knots (940 hPa) increasing to 100 knots in 12 hours

latest Hurricane Warning data from RSMC Nadi.
Looks like parts of Nova Scotia are going to get hit with a decent blast of snow.This storm is now beginning to explode in strength, maybe some parts of the province may receive 50 centimeters or so.Pressure is falling rapidly now, may hit 970 low wyseclose to Nova Scotia as a est.
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats all have some of this on the house






happy new year




Geez, your starting a few days early mate.
Happy New Year Mate!
518. etxwx
How Shrubs Are Reducing the Positive Contribution of Peatlands to Climate

From Science Daily - Dec. 23, 2012
Excerpt: Peatlands (bogs, turf moors) are among the most important ecosystems worldwide for the storage of atmospheric carbon and thus for containing the climate warming process. In the last 30 to 50 years the peat (Sphagnum) mosses, whose decay produces the peat (turf), have come under pressure by vascular plants, mostly small shrubs.

Complete article can be found here.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


currently 90 knots (940 hPa) increasing to 100 knots in 12 hours

latest Hurricane Warning data from RSMC Nadi.


Ex- TC Mitchell





Cat 3/ Hur Cat 1 Freda


Quoting AussieStorm:


Ex- TC Mitchell





Cat 3/ Hur Cat 1 Freda




Freda looks to be wound pretty tight .. is he due a eyewall replacement cycle soon ??
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"I'm not going to debate this with you anymore."
"Not going to debate this with you anymore."

"I'm not going to debate this with you anymore."
LOL this reminds me of a debate I had with my grandfather back in the early 70s when the gas crises hit. I was trying to explain to him miles per gallon. he was convinced the faster you drove the less gas you used as your motor is not running as long.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA, CATEGORY FOUR (05F)
12:00 PM FST December 30 2012
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (940 hPa) located at 14.1S 160.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly in the last 12 hours. Eye well defined in visible/infrared. Cloud tops warming in past 3 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good. System steered south southeast by northwesterly deep layer mean. Sea surface temperature around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye embedded in LG surround yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.0 and PT=5.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 15.1S 160.7E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.0S 160.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.9S 159.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Typhoon FREDA Night IR to day RGB


Patrap's WunderBlog

Now in wunderground HD.
526. flsky
Quoting Patrap:


I'd like to forward this to friends, but I'm having trouble doing so. Help?
Quoting flsky:


I'd like to forward this to friends, but I'm having trouble doing so. Help?


I need a post number to do it ,,so that would help.
Random question....could a major hurricane make landfall on the Delmarva Peninsula?


Quoting wxgeek723:
Random question....could a major hurricane make landfall on the Delmarva Peninsula?



It's possible, but unlikely. A tropical cyclone approaching the East Coast from that angle, or any angle for that matter, is likely to ingest continental dry air, weakening the storm. The storm would have be at Category 4-5 intensity within 24 hours of landfall to make it I'm guessing.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Basically, if it is raining outside and I am standing outside of a store looking to get to my car I would run. I would get to my car faster thus spending less time in the rain.



Yeah.

Spending less time in the rain doesn't guarantee you get less wet.

That's what some are failing to understand.


The terminal velocity of a 6-millimeter raindrop was found to be approximately 10 m/s. This value has been found to vary between 9 m/s and 13 m/s when measurements were taken on different days. The variance has been contributed to different air temperatures and pressures. In comparison, a human being falling to the surface of the Earth experiences a drastically larger terminal velocity of approximately 56 m/s.


http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2007/EvanKaplan.sh tml

Ok, so something as simple as changes in temperature and pressure changed the rate of a rain drop's terminal velocity by a factor of about plus/minus 2m/s.

If you consider a human sprint, which is not a world class sprinter, and is a straight shot, not a shuttle run with turns, would also be about 9 or 10m/s.


If the front of your body is thrice as big as the top of your body, then exposures are:

T = 1 (standard metric for area of top of body)
F = 3T (area of front of body)*
r = rate
x = time
E = x *(rT + rF) total exposure

* I picked a round number that seems close. I doubt it's exactly this ratio.

For terminal velocity: 9m/s
Walk: 5m/s
Trot: 7m/s
Run: 10m/s
Distance: 50m

Walking:

rT = 0.8746*T (sin 61)
rF = 0.4856*3*T = 1.4568T (3*sin 29)

x = 10s

E = 23.314 arbitrary units water.

Trot:

rT = 0.7894*T (Sin 52.12)
rF = 0.6139*3*T (Sin 37.88)

x = 7.15285s

E = 18.8199 units water


Running:

rT = 0.6691*T (sin 42)
rF = 0.7431*3*T (3*sin 48)

x = 5s

E = 14.492 units water*

============

13m/s terminal velocity:

Walk:

rT = 0.9333*T
rF = 0.3590*3*T

x = 10s

E = 20.103 units water


Run:

rT = 0.7926*T
rF = 0.6097*3*T

x = 5s

E = 13.1085 units water


Ok, so I guess I've proven myself wrong, not sure though, because I don't know if the 3 to 1 ratio of front body surface area to top of the body surface area that I used was high enough. The higher this ratio the more it favors walking.

This also still doesn't account for dynamic motion of the body, and still only incorrectly treats the body as a prism...but what the heck, he wanted to see some math...


The 9m/s terminal velocity calculation actually has exposure rate ratio of just 1.24, which means the Build team runners actually got much wetter (compared to walking,) than THIS attempt to solve the problem suggests they should have, because the actual ratio was 1.6.

The 13m/s terminal velocity ironically causes the person to get less wet, whether walking or running. I guess a faster falling drop is more likely to fall out of the way before you run into it. Additionally, the ratio of exposure rates is higher.


So what happened on Jamie and Adam's experiment, and why did it work for both of them, with and without wind?

Below terminal velocity 5m/s:

Walk:
rT = 0.7071*T
rF = 0.7071*3*T

x = 10s

E = 28.284 units water

Run:

rT = 0.4472*T
rF = 0.8944*3*T

x = 5s

E = 15.652 units water



Simplified explanation still doesn't replicate Jamie and Adam's results, and it under estimates how wet the runner got. It under estimated the ratio of rate of exposure for the runner in the build team's experiment by 40%.


====

I actually think the scales in at least one of the experiments was screwed up. Remember, in one part of the build team's tests, they got the outrageous conclusion that Torre ended up having lighter clothes after running in the rain than before he started, which they threw that out because it was obviously wrong, but what about the not-so-obviously wrong results?! If this is the case, then the margin of error on the scales is too large to even do the experiment properly.
Lordy, what a waste of Blog space and Math.

: )

Maybe banter that ridiculous stuff in wu-mail.

Wees bees tired of it to say the least.
532. beell
Quoting RTSplayer:



Yeah.

Spending less time in the rain doesn't guarantee you get less wet.

That's what some are failing to understand.


The terminal velocity of a 6-millimeter raindrop was found to be approximately 10 m/s. This value has been found to vary between 9 m/s and 13 m/s when measurements were taken on different days. The variance has been contributed to different air temperatures and pressures. In comparison, a human being falling to the surface of the Earth experiences a drastically larger terminal velocity of approximately 56 m/s.


http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2007/EvanKaplan.sh tml

Ok, so something as simple as changes in temperature and pressure changed the rate of a rain drop's terminal velocity by a factor of about plus/minus 2m/s.

If you consider a human sprint, which is not a world class sprinter, and is a straight shot, not a shuttle run with turns, would also be about 9 or 10m/s.


If the front of your body is thrice as big as the top of your body, then exposures are:

T = 1 (standard metric for area of top of body)
F = 3T (area of front of body)*
r = rate
x = time
E = x *(rT + rF) total exposure

* I picked a round number that seems close. I doubt it's exactly this ratio.

For terminal velocity: 9m/s
Walk: 5m/s
Trot: 7m/s
Run: 10m/s
Distance: 50m

Walking:

rT = 0.8746*T (sin 61)
rF = 0.4856*3*T = 1.4568T (3*sin 29)

x = 10s

E = 23.314 arbitrary units water.

Trot:

rT = 0.7894*T (Sin 52.12)
rF = 0.6139*3*T (Sin 37.88)

x = 7.15285s

E = 18.8199 units water


Running:

rT = 0.6691*T (sin 42)
rF = 0.7431*3*T (3*sin 48)

x = 5s

E = 14.492 units water*

============

13m/s terminal velocity:

Walk:

rT = 0.9333*T
rF = 0.3590*3*T

x = 10s

E = 20.103 units water


Run:

rT = 0.7926*T
rF = 0.6097*3*T

x = 5s

E = 13.1085 units water


Ok, so I guess I've proven myself wrong, not sure though, because I don't know if the 3 to 1 ratio of front body surface area to top of the body surface area that I used was high enough. The higher this ratio the more it favors walking.

This also still doesn't account for dynamic motion of the body, and still only incorrectly treats the body as a prism...but what the heck, he wanted to see some math...


The 9m/s terminal velocity calculation actually has exposure rate ratio of just 1.24, which means the Build team runners actually got much wetter (compared to walking,) than THIS attempt to solve the problem suggests they should have, because the actual ratio was 1.6.

The 13m/s terminal velocity ironically causes the person to get less wet, whether walking or running. I guess a faster falling drop is more likely to fall out of the way before you run into it. Additionally, the ratio of exposure rates is higher.


So what happened on Jamie and Adam's experiment, and why did it work for both of them, with and without wind?

Below terminal velocity 5m/s:

Walk:
rT = 0.7071*T
rF = 0.7071*3*T

x = 10s

E = 28.284 units water

Run:

rT = 0.4472*T
rF = 0.8944*3*T

x = 5s

E = 15.652 units water



Simplified explanation still doesn't replicate Jamie and Adam's results, and it under estimates how wet the runner got. It under estimated the ratio of rate of exposure for the runner in the build team's experiment by 40%.


====

I actually think the scales in at least one of the experiments was screwed up. Remember, in one part of the build team's tests, they got the outrageous conclusion that Torre ended up having lighter clothes after running in the rain than before he started, which they threw that out because it was obviously wrong, but what about the not-so-obviously wrong results?! If this is the case, then the margin of error on the scales is too large to even do the experiment properly.


How many rain drops?


1200 PM track released earlier today

05F (30 knots JTWC)

Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should continue to monitor the progress of this developing cyclone
Quoting beell:


How many rain drops?


Good question.

If the drops are fewer and spread out, or non-uniformly distributed, then randomness or "chaos" becomes a factor, which you can't predict with any ordinary math.

You can run the exact same experiment with what appears to be identical conditions, and you'll get different results because of the chaotic elements, which I ignored all the dynamic and chaotic elements in the above post for sake of simplicity, since there's really no way to calculate that by hand anyway.

Like I said, it's a lot more complicated than treating the body as a prism.
Quoting Patrap:
Lordy, what a waste of Blog space and Math.

: )

Maybe banter that ridiculous stuff in wu-mail.

Wees bees tired of it to say the least.


I agree !! Why don't you take to your own blogs ..
Anyone know if Freda an Freyr are fraternal twins?
537. Hugo5
Hello all,

The low off the coast of cali is still headed further south and looks to be pushing a lot of tropical moisture north. with this and a small disturbance moving over the northern rockies I'd say we have a good chance for some showers in the heart of the nation to drought affected areas. We should see this in the next day or two. Hope all works out!
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Anyone know if Freda an Freyr are fraternal twins?



Freudian Friends maybe?
Quoting RTSplayer:


Good question.

If the drops are fewer and spread out, or non-uniformly distributed, then randomness or "chaos" becomes a factor, which you can't predict with any ordinary math.

You can run the exact same experiment with what appears to be identical conditions, and you'll get different results because of the chaotic elements, which I ignored all the dynamic and chaotic elements in the above post for sake of simplicity, since there's really no way to calculate that by hand anyway.

Like I said, it's a lot more complicated than treating the body as a prism.


I actually enjoyed reading you guys comment on the subject, its better than the lyrics to old 1970 rock songs or evil climate change arguments..carry on


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 DEC 2012 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 14:25:10 S Lon : 160:44:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 966.3mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : -5.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.8 degrees
542. N3EG
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm laughing at your argument right now cause you just keep going in circles.

Go ahead and walk in the rain if you'd like, I couldn't care less.


I'll run in the rain if I want to. And I'll have scissors with me!
This argument between RTS and Tom is just waste of blog space and pointless.
544. ARiot
I dont run in the rain

Its silly

Plus your bottom half gets soaked from splashing.

Additionally and more interesting-- had to drive through the fast moving winter storm today. I81 is bad in nice weather. Was a mess today.

14 hours... should have been 11.5

Only saw two wrecks. Both near the end of trip in TN.

Massive respect to salt crews in VA. Super work on their part of the trip.


545. beell
For those of you tired of this thread-use the tools or skip it. I could cite numerous examples of posts that I had not the slightest interest in. Let it roll. Come up with your own content.

Quoting RTSplayer:


Good question.

If the drops are fewer and spread out, or non-uniformly distributed, then randomness or "chaos" becomes a factor, which you can't predict with any ordinary math.

You can run the exact same experiment with what appears to be identical conditions, and you'll get different results because of the chaotic elements, which I ignored all the dynamic and chaotic elements in the above post for sake of simplicity, since there's really no way to calculate that by hand anyway.


Could have been done on a treadmill with a prism-sized shower of known volume "rained-out" over a set time, and a simulated headwind equal to speed of travel.

Highly absorbent clothing and a means to calculate the loss of original water volume might work.

Ok, i'm done, fwiw.
Quoting Patrap:
Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters


Mitchell is east of its forecast point .. how much rain is it bring to the western coast of Aus ??
Quoting beell:
For those of you tired of this thread-use the tools or skip it. I could cite numerous examples of posts that I had not the slightest interest in. Let it roll. Come up with your own content.



Could been done on a treadmill with a prism-sized shower of known volume "rained-out" over a set time, and a simulated headwind equal to speed of travel.

Highly absorbent clothing and a means to calculate the loss of original water volume might work.

Ok, i'm done, fwiw.


Why don't you take it to your own blog ??


The India Meteorological Numerical Weather Prediction website for 96S (05R) and 97S

DANG!


What a beautiful storm in the Gulf of Alaska!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


What a beautiful storm in the Gulf of Alaska!


Wonder what it will bring for us in 10 days or so ..
Quoting whitewabit:


Wonder what it will bring for us in 10 days or so ..


For me, probably rain.
Quoting whitewabit:


Wonder what it will bring for us in 10 days or so ..


It actually isn't forecast to head this way according to the GFS. :( Just the extreme west coast will see some rain.
Quoting whitewabit:


Mitchell is east of its forecast point .. how much rain is it bring to the western coast of Aus ??


Not a whole lot of rain.
Quoting beell:
For those of you tired of this thread-use the tools or skip it. I could cite numerous examples of posts that I had not the slightest interest in. Let it roll. Come up with your own content.



Could have been done on a treadmill with a prism-sized shower of known volume "rained-out" over a set time, and a simulated headwind equal to speed of travel.

Highly absorbent clothing and a means to calculate the loss of original water volume might work.

Ok, i'm done, fwiw.
Do you see RTS has a wu blog up about this question?... continued over there. I was enjoying the discussion also, fwiw. Guess I should. I started it. lol Inadvertently.
Quoting Civicane49:


Not a whole lot of rain.


Was wondering .. the west coast there has been quite dry ..
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Do you see RTS has a wu blog up about this question?... continued over there. I was enjoying the discussion also, fwiw. Guess I should. I started it. lol Inadvertently.



Fool in da Rain


Now I will stand in the rain on the corner
I'll watch the people go shopping downtown
Another ten minutes no longer
And then I'm turning around, 'round
The clock on the wall's moving slower
Oh, my heart it sinks to the ground
And the storm that I thought would blow over
Clouds the light of the love that I found, found
Wow, never thought I'd see a 'Han Shot First' style debate going on WU, and especially not over running in the rain.


A hard freeze warning is in effect for southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana north and west of the tidal lakes. A freeze warning in in effect for southeast Louisiana below the tidal lakes and outside the the city of New Orleans, excluding the immediate coast. Low temperatures in the mid 20s can be expected early Sunday in the hard freeze warning area, while lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s can be expected south and west of the tidal lakes.


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE LAKES BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INTERIOR SECTIONS SOUTH OF THE LAKES MAY APPROACH FREEZING BUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY...AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A GULF LOW.
TomTaylor: The whole point here is to get as little wetness as possible.
Patrap: Umbrellas vs Ponchos?

Umbrellas are fine for those with a grip like Mary Poppins. For the rest, definitely a falling hazard.
And ponchos make ya sweat.
I prefer sliding between raindrops m'self. Less chance of "I'm melting..." ifn ya know what I mean.

beell: For those of you tired of this thread--use the tools or skip it. I could cite numerous examples of posts that I had not the slightest interest in. Let it roll. Come up with your own content.
whitewabit: Why don't you take it to your own blog??

What, and give up Show Biz?
If you run in the rain, you risk falling over. Walk don't run the risk. No matter what, if you walk or run in the rain, you'll get wet either way. Or just stay inside and down go anywhere.



TC Freda Cat 4 Cyclone/ Cat 3 Hurricane





Quoting AussieStorm:
If you run in the rain, you risk falling over. Walk don't run the risk. No matter what, if you walk or run in the rain, you'll get wet either way. Or just stay inside and down go anywhere.



TC Freda Cat 4 Cyclone/ Cat 3 Hurricane







hi mate... long time no see
564. BtnTx
Happy New Years to the Dr JM wu bloggers!
Large, powerful extratropical low with hurricane-force winds affecting Alaska:

Quoting Civicane49:
Large, powerful extratropical low with hurricane-force winds affecting Alaska:

About to make landfall.
Quoting allancalderini:
About to make landfall.


Yep.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hi mate... long time no see

Yeah, I've been away visiting my parents.




Cyclone Freda lashes Solomon Islands


Tropical Cyclone Freda has struck the Solomon Islands, bringing heavy rains and winds of up to 130 kilometres per hour.

Witnesses say roofs have been ripped off houses and trees have been flattened, while rising rivers caused flooding in some areas.

There are no reports of deaths or injuries.

Sajay Prakesh of the Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre in Fiji said although the cyclone was moving away, parts of the Solomon Islands were being hit by "very strong winds and heavy rain".

"Cyclone Freda is now a category two cyclone and it is continuing to intensify," he said on Saturday afternoon.

"It will become category-three by midnight tonight, having very destructive winds."

Coastal and low-lying areas are at risk of inundation and fishermen have been advised to stay away from the sea.

Matthew Bass from the Bureau of Meteorology in Brisbane says Freda is no longer expected to hit Vanuatu and New Caledonia in the coming days.

"At this stage it's expected to maintain a reasonably southerly path and with that it isn't directly expected to affect Vanuatu in the next couple of days," he said.

"At this stage around New Year's we're expecting it to be quite far from New Caledonia, still to the north-east of the islands."

Freda comes just weeks after Cyclone Evan killed at least five people in Samoa before destroying homes and stranding thousands of tourists in Fiji.

Queensland weather forecaster Peter Otto says the Freda is about 1,300 kilometres from the Australian coast.

"This cyclone is expected to stay way off the eastern Australian coast for the next several days and the only impact we can see in the near future is the possibility of waves increasing into the early part of next week, but that's a long way off," he said.

Meanwhile, the weather bureau says a cyclone off Western Australia is unlikely to reach the coast.

Category-one Cyclone Mitchell is about 600 kilometres north-north-west of Exmouth and is expected to move south over the next 48 hours.

It is likely to intensify to a category-two overnight, before weakening again on Sunday.

However, David Farr from the Bureau of Meteorology says Mitchell is not expected to cross the coast.

"On the current forecast track it won't affect the north west coast of WA," he said.

"There's a slight risk of gales on the upper west coast if the system takes a track a bit more to the south-east from what we're expecting. But it is only a slight risk."


© ABC 2012
Cyclone Freda:

Fraternal twins one would assume and their parents were brother and sister! Link
Situating northeast of Madagascar, Invest 96S is struggling to organize due to strong easterly shear. However, the ECMWF forecasts this system to become a strong cyclone east of Madagascar by the next several days.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20122013
10:00 AM RET December 30 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1000 hPa) located at 9.9S 60.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 9.9S 59.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.1S 58.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 11.5S 56.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.0S 55.8E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
According to satellite imagery and surface obs, the circulation is clearly well defined, around an unique center, more symmetrical than yesterday. Under the negative effect of a rather strong easterly constraint (30 knots according to CIMSS data), the main convection is only located in the western semi-circle.

On the northern edge of a low to mid-level ridge, the system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 to 36 hours. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system. Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. Available numerical weather prediction models are in very good agreement on that track even in the long term forecast ... so there is a higher than usual degree of confidence in the track forecast.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear (main inhibitor currently) should gradually decrease until monday. Tuesday, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south).

Given all the above, inhabitants of Agalega, La Reunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position ... specially at long range. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to be large and associated hazards could affect widespread areas.
05R forecast track

Dark red intensity marker in the track near Réunion is intense tropical cyclone stage.
whew COLD and WINDY here this morning,dogs shivering lol...
Good Morning Folks!!..7-day for Tampa Bay area...
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
527 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012

...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST/ 7AM CST THIS
MORNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR TAYLOR DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

...A FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...


ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026-027-GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161-302200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.A.0008.121231T0900Z-121231T1300Z/
/O.EXT.KTAE.FZ.W.0008.000000T0000Z-121230T1300Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LE E-WORTH-
TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-
COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS -LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...K INSEY...
COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...
MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGST OWN...
BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...
SWEETWATER...CRAWFORDVILLE...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...
CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON ...LEARY...
DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVEST ER...ASHBURN...
TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLA KELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE.. .ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO... THOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
527 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012 /427 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2012/

...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/
THIS MORNING...

...A FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE: LOWS 27 TO 31 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND MONDAY
MORNING...COLDEST VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

* DURATION: 2 TO 5 HOURS BELOW FREEZING.

* IMPACTS...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DURATION COULD
KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
G'morn to the early shift.

28.6F down on da Bayou Grande.

EDIT: 28,4F @ 5:57 am CST
Seems pret darn silly to have freezing weather and no snow.
rgr that!
28.4*F in Macon Georgia this morning too.
94% humidity but no snow here either.
Quoting LargoFl:
whew COLD and WINDY here this morning,dogs shivering lol...


Same here in Madeira Beach, too cold for me! When I woke up they said it was 46 with a wind chill of 38, brrr and grrr to that :) We should see 60 today but with the wind gusting up to 24mph it will still feel cold to me. Hey but a bright note is the cold front brought some really good rain! My gauge showed 1.20" which is the most we've seen in a long time.
Interesting reading back today my blood boiled a couple times but I don't think that qualifies as GW but I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong. Also, I learned I am glad I don't have "a pair", and my husband and sons are, too, they seem to bring out an annoying arrogance in some that possess them. Have a great day everybody and stay warm.
we are getting hammered by this nor'easter cars buried up to the doors !
Good morning to all. A beautiful morning in San Juan without a cloud and blue sky with temperture of 75F as of 9 AM AST. It looks like New Years Eve and New Years day will be with the same kind of weather.
temperatures are like a yo yo this winter e cen florida
Wow. It's only 52 degrees outside this morning... almost 20 degrees warmer at home in Nassau.

Brrrr.... good morning, everyone.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Random question....could a major hurricane make landfall on the Delmarva Peninsula?




Wow... it's amazing how much better the NHC forecast cones have become in the past few years.

And, according to wikipedia, only 4 storms have caused hurricane-force winds in Delaware... all of which were category one storms. ...That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if it were to happen someday.
ON THIS DATE IN 2005: The 27th tropical storm of the record setting North Atlantic Hurricane Season formed in the eastern Atlantic. It became the second latest tropical storm ever to form in the North Atlantic. It formed six hours before Hurricane Alice, which also became a tropical storm on the same date in 1954. Alice actually lasted into 1955, striking the Leeward Islands on January 2nd. Zeta never became a hurricane, but lasted longer than Alice, lasting well into 2006. This also tied Zeta with Alice for being the earliest North Atlantic tropical storm on record. Alice and Zeta are the only two tropical storms ever to cross from one calendar year to the next.
Quoting etxwx:
This could leave a heck of a contrail...

Approaching comet may outshine the moon
By Irene Klotz
Fri Dec 28, 2012 5:29pm EST

Excerpt:(Reuters) - A comet blazing toward Earth could outshine the full moon when it passes by at the end of next year - if it survives its close encounter with the sun.

The recently discovered object, known as comet ISON, is due to fly within 1.2 million miles (1.9 million km) from the center of the sun on November 28, 2013 said astronomer Donald Yeomans, head of NASA's Near Earth Object Program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.

As the comet approaches, heat from the sun will vaporize ices in its body, creating what could be a spectacular tail that is visible in Earth's night sky without telescopes or even binoculars from about October 2013 through January 2014.

If the comet survives, that is.

Comet ISON could break apart as it nears the sun, or it could fail to produce a tail of ice particles visible from Earth.


More here.
Now this is more like it for an "end of the world as we know it" indicator.... year ending in 13, "star in the east"... etc....

:o)
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm not going to debate this with you anymore.

Any logical, reasonable person trying to stay as dry as possible in the rain knows they should get out of the rain as soon as possible (i.e. running).
I dunno... I tend to use a raincoat to stay as dry as possible. Then I walk.

Think about another scenario... what about a woman running in heels? Does she stay less wet that way?

I have a feeling you need a larger data sample to verify this one way or the other.

But what do I know...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
"Top 5" Weather Events for South Florida 2012



What about TS Beryl? it dumped huge amounts of rain on NE Florida. If it wasn't for Beryl, Debby wouldn't of been as bad as she was. Beryl's rains made Debby's rains even worse due to the ground already being saturated. Beryl should be in that list.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I know, but you're not getting it.

You assume Jamie and Adam made some sort of experimental error in the first setup, but you gave no clue what that might be.

An outlying data point is not necessarily "bad" just because it's outlying.

Another example of data with outlying points which are not (necessarily) experimental flaws:




The only potential flaw I already point out was Jamie and Adam's build might not have had the droplets at terminal velocity.


There was another difference.

Jamie and Adam's route was a single straight shot, which resulted in their "run" being higher top speed and no slowage/stoppage time for rounding corners. This would cause them to "run into" more water drops. As I pointed out, a "real" running in the rain scenario does not involve a 180 degree turn, which means that this difference actually favors Jamie and Adam's experiment as being more representative of what would happen, say if you were running from the parking lot to shopping center.


they didnt count the water falling on their heads.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
ON THIS DATE IN 2005: The 27th tropical storm of the record setting North Atlantic Hurricane Season formed in the eastern Atlantic. It became the second latest tropical storm ever to form in the North Atlantic. It formed six hours before Hurricane Alice, which also became a tropical storm on the same date in 1954. Alice actually lasted into 1955, striking the Leeward Islands on January 2nd. Zeta never became a hurricane, but lasted longer than Alice, lasting well into 2006. This also tied Zeta with Alice for being the earliest North Atlantic tropical storm on record. Alice and Zeta are the only two tropical storms ever to cross from one calendar year to the next.
GeorgiaStormz...Never forget 2005. The year that Wilma kick butt
Good Morning All..
33 degrees right now..
Frosty's been here again..LOL..

My Current WU Weather

A Webcam from my area..

Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning All..
33 degrees right now..
Frosty's been here again..LOL..

My Current WU Weather

A Webcam from my area..

Good frosty Morning to Ya LOL..supposed to be warming up nicely this week after this cold front fizzles out..supposed to be a really NICE new years day
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


they didnt count the water falling on their heads.


They didn't count that in either experiment, so that's not what made the conflicting results.
1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida




pcola57.....Brrr. That's cold. At least for me. My thermometer was at 51 at 6:00am this morning. Beautiful morning
Quoting islander101010:
temperatures are like a yo yo this winter e cen florida
yes they are alright..2 days warm 2 days cold over and over again..no wonder the flu season is bad around here.
Quoting RTSplayer:


They didn't count that in either experiment, so that's not what made the conflicting results.



Well you get more water falling on your head the slower you walk, so they could have been wetter in the walking experiment, but they failed to count the extra water that fell on their heads from them walking slower.
That may have tipped the scale in running's favor but we wouldnt know, because they didnt measure it
would be nice if this wind dies down some....
Quoting AussieStorm:


What about TS Beryl? it dumped huge amounts of rain on NE Florida. If it wasn't for Beryl, Debby wouldn't of been as bad as she was. Beryl's rains made Debby's rains even worse due to the ground already being saturated. Beryl should be in that list.


That list was for south Florida. Beryl had zero or minimal impact there. As far as rains in my area of NE Florida, Beryl only dumped 3". Debby meanwhile, dumped a foot here. Other areas had 20"+
RGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
527 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012

...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST/ 7AM CST THIS
MORNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR TAYLOR DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

...A FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
Hopefully some good rains for Texas upcoming week huh..
50 MPH GUSTS ARE PRETTY STRONG HUH...........URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ042- 053-054-
WVZ051>053-302000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0013.121230T1431Z-121230T2000Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-
FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-MORGAN-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE ...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
931 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...UNTIL 3PM.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HIGHER WIND GUSTS. ALSO...HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD TAKE
CAUTION IN EXPOSED AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$
Quoting LargoFl:
Hopefully some good rains for Texas upcoming week huh..
Local Computer Models for South Central Texas showing around .10 to .20 around here, Trace Amounts to West and heavier totals to East, if I get a tenth of an inch will be heaviest rain received since middle of October.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Local Computer Models for South Central Texas showing around .10 to .20 around here, Trace Amounts to West and heavier totals to East, if I get a tenth of an inch will be heaviest rain received since middle of October.
well i hope you do get some rain for sure..This is supposed to be our dry season here, yet we have been getting some good rains, our drought is over for now, mother nature sure is funny huh
Quoting LargoFl:
well i hope you do get some rain for sure..This is supposed to be our dry season here, yet we have been getting some good rains, our drought is over for now, mother nature sure is funny huh
Dryest Oct. Nov and Dec for big parts of Texas in its History. With the Very Dry Air we have had Some Cold Nights and Mornings. Today Texas will have alot of Virga since the Air is still very dry at most levels. I will settle for anything since I have only had 1 or 2 rainfalls in the past 3 months plus that have even measured anything. Here is our discussion: DISCUSSION...
MOIST PATTERN DEVELOPING ALOFT THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CA. HIGH CLOUDINESS AND VIRGA WILL
BE SEEN MUCH OF TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REACHING THE
GROUND OVER MAINLY WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE GENERATED OVER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES INTO WEST CENTRAL TX TONIGHT...AND THE FIRST EJECTING
WAVE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NE INTO
NORTH CENTRAL TX. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TONIGHT...WITH MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE A
TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND
1/4 POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. LATE TONIGHT...AS INCREASING
STABILITY REPLACES THE EJECTING DISTURBANCE...PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING.

THE EVENING OF NEW NEARS EVE...HAS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
SETTING UP AS THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE EJECTED LEAD SHORTWAVE
LEAVES A WEAK DRY LINE OR PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-35 BY
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVERCAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RAIN AREA MOSTLY
SEPARATED FROM THE FRONT. THE PROJECTION FOR MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT COULD THEREFORE BE DAMP WITH LOW CEILINGS FOR MANY AREAS.
HIGHEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR SE COUNTIES WITH
BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH POSSIBLE...WITH EVENT RAIN TOTALS FOR ALONG
I-35 PROBABLY CLOSER TO 1/4 INCH OR LESS.

its weird how folks in drought area's look for Inches of rain, which if it came, would be mostly runoff water..what people should be wishing for is an all day steady light rain..which would soak in the ground, run off is useless,into the sewers and rivers, doesnt do anyone any good huh
Im glad Texas is moving towards this,my area has been doing it for years now, and it works great,its no good to be using well or tap drinking water to water the lawns etc.................Link
Quoting StAugustineFL:


That list was for south Florida. Beryl had zero or minimal impact there. As far as rains in my area of NE Florida, Beryl only dumped 3". Debby meanwhile, dumped a foot here. Other areas had 20"


Speaking of rain events..
Here's mine from earlier in the year..
Record setting event on July 10..
13.11" in a 24hr. period breaking the 99yr. old record set in 1913..

Link



..WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD DOWN TREES AND TREE
LIMBS...POWER LINES AND HOLIDAY DECORATIONS...AND CAUSE MINOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. DRIVING
WILL BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
Quoting LargoFl:
its weird how folks in drought area's look for Inches of rain, which if it came, would be mostly runoff water..what people should be wishing for is an all day steady light rain..which would soak in the ground, run off is useless,into the sewers and rivers, doesnt do anyone any good huh
When you have Lakes 65 feet down runoff is a must, west of Austin there hasnt been much runoff the past year or 2.
Quoting LargoFl:
its weird how folks in drought area's look for Inches of rain, which if it came, would be mostly runoff water..what people should be wishing for is an all day steady light rain..which would soak in the ground, run off is useless,into the sewers and rivers, doesnt do anyone any good huh
In Texas we seldom get rainy periods. We either get nothing or a flood or so it seems.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
When you have Lakes 65 feet down runoff is a must, west of Austin there hasnt been much runoff the past year or 2.


Sounds like we'll have a new Death Valley.

Dry lake beds make good permanent deserts.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Sounds like we'll have a new Death Valley.

Dry lake beds make good permanent deserts.
in the 80's when i drove to california a few times i always took the southern route, when i got into new mexico, the terrain is mostly desert, seems texas is going to go that route if this drought continues, the people there must adjust like the new mexico people have, i know that sounds bad but, humans must adjust to their surroundings as always..I think we all know that, but hate to think about it, the climate is always in a state of flux isnt it?..somehow..the climate in the USA IS changing and we'll wait and see how it goes..
Quoting RTSplayer:


Sounds like we'll have a new Death Valley.

Dry lake beds make good permanent deserts.
Correction Lake Travis is only down 50 feet. Near the Lowest level in its History since 1942.
Humans love to change their surroundings..they love concrete and steel, they love tearing down the forests and building yet more houses and concreting the area for roads etc..well..there IS a price to pay for doing that huh..and we are beginning to see...the price we pay for it..I dunno the answer, dont know how..we people change but somehow..we must, florida is taking lil steps towards this,planting tree's everywhere they can in their cities etc..we probably need to do so much more here in that regard but..they are noticcing the subtle changes and trying to do something about it..i know..i keep repeating myself about the importance of tree's, remembering its tree's..who help make rain, as absurd as that sounds but its true...
New Orleans Weather at a Glance
Weather Station - Report
Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft


Clear
Temperature
40.5 °F
Feels Like 36 °F
The notion of desertification has been a contentious subject. UNEP's Desertification Control/Programme Activity Centre (DC/PAC) defined desertification as "land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting mainly from adverse human impact", aggravated by the characteristics of dryland climates. Within the context of Agenda 21, desertification is defined as "land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from climatic variations and human activities". The difference between these definitions has to do with causation. In the former, human intervention is viewed as the central driving force in desertification; while the latter clearly identifies both human and climatic influences (Toulmin, 1993).
Quoting LargoFl:
Humans love to change their surroundings..they love concrete and steel, they love tearing down the forests and building yet more houses and concreting the area for roads etc..well..there IS a price to pay for doing that huh..and we are beginning to see...the price we pay for it..I dunno the answer, dont know how..we people change but somehow..we must, florida is taking lil steps towards this,planting tree's everywhere they can in their cities etc..we probably need to do so much more here in that regard but..they are noticcing the subtle changes and trying to do something about it..i know..i keep repeating myself about the importance of tree's, remembering its tree's..who help make rain, as absurd as that sounds but its true...


We have lots of trees up here but as you said they are being cut at a steady rate both privately and commercially..
And locally the University of West Florida has been cutting theirs on campus and new property they "acquired" (a land grab by the state on their behalf)
There was a transients body found in the woods on their property and thats their reasoning on it..
I think acres and acres of cutting is an over response but what do I know..
Quoting pcola57:


We have lots of trees up here but as you said they are being cut at a steady rate..
And locally the University of West Florida has been cutting theirs on campus and new property they "acquired" (a land grab by the state on their behalf)
There was a transients body found in the woods on their property and thats their reasoning on it..
I think acres and acres of cutting is an over response but what do I know..
..yeah i know, not much me and you can do, we sit, we read, we see the weather changes but unless all people change we all will pay for the destruction of the environment, the changing weather patterns, the lack of rain, and later on, without rain goes the crops etc..im glad in nearing the end stages of life, i hate to think what the future is going to look like for my grand children..a very different climate they will see and worse..THEIR grand children..
I read somewhere..that back in Biblical times, the so called Garden Of Eden..was located somewhere near present day Iraq..well the people there, lil by lil cut down the tree's etc..made houses and cities, kept cutting down more tree's thru the ages..NOW look at it..a desert country...its a lesson in area climate change we in the USA need to learn from..but we wont
“We’re changing the environment — it’s very clear,” said Thomas R. Knutson, a research meteorologist with the government’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. “We’re changing global temperature, we’re changing atmospheric moisture, we’re changing a lot of things. Humans are running this experiment, and we’re not quite sure how it’s going to turn out.”

CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - Overview


At a September 2008 meeting involving 20 climate modeling groups from around the world, the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), with input from the IGBP AIMES project, agreed to promote a new set of coordinated climate model experiments. These experiments comprise the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 will notably provide a multi-model context for 1) assessing the mechanisms responsible for model differences in poorly understood feedbacks associated with the carbon cycle and with clouds, 2) examining climate “predictability” and exploring the ability of models to predict climate on decadal time scales, and, more generally, 3) determining why similarly forced models produce a range of responses.

It is expected that some of the scientific questions that arose during preparation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) will through CMIP5 be addressed in time for evaluation in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, scheduled for publication in late 2013). The IPCC/CMIP5 schedule (pdf ) is now available and the three key dates are as follows:
Februrary 2011: First model output is expected to be available for analysis,
July 31, 2012: By this date papers must be submitted for publication to be eligible for assesment by WG1,
March 15, 2013: By this date papers cited by WG1 must be published or accepted.
The IPCC’s AR5 is scheduled to be published in September 2013. Future timeline information can be found on IPCC WG1 website.

CMIP5 is meant to provide a framework for coordinated climate change experiments for the next five years and thus includes simulations for assessment in the AR5 as well as others that extend beyond the AR5. CMIP5 is not, however, meant to be comprehensive; it cannot possibly include all the different model intercomparison activities that might be of value, and it is expected that various groups and interested parties will develop additional experiments that might build on and augment the experiments described here.

CMIP5 promotes a standard set of model simulations in order to:
evaluate how realistic the models are in simulating the recent past,
provide projections of future climate change on two time scales, near term (out to about 2035) and long term (out to 2100 and beyond), and
understand some of the factors responsible for differences in model projections, including quantifying some key feedbacks such as those involving clouds and the carbon cycle
Weather update just Southwest of Austin Tx. UPDATE...
INCREASED SKY COVER AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AT A FEW
LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN WAS
ADVANCING A LITTLE FASTER NEWD THAN EXPECTED. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. DRT
SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY WARM LAYER AT 7-10K FEET...HOWEVER THIS
LAYER IS ALSO VERY DRY...SO WITH EVAPATIVE COOLING...SOME LIGHT
SLEET COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY

July 2012: Hottest Month Ever
According to the latest statistics from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature for the contiguous United States during July was 77.6°F, which is 3.3°F above the 20th-century average...



Program Overview


The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."


USGCRP's Vision and Mission:

Our Vision:
A nation, globally engaged and guided by science, meeting the challenges of climate and global change

Our Mission:
To build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support
Thirteen departments and agencies participate in the USGCRP, which was known as the U.S. Climate Change Science Program from 2002 through 2008. The program is steered by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research under the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, overseen by the Executive Office of the President, and facilitated by the National Coordination Office.
During the past two decades, the United States, through the USGCRP, has made the world's largest scientific investment in the areas of climate change and global change research. Since its inception, the USGCRP has supported research and observational activities in collaboration with several other national and international science programs.

These activities led to major advances in several key areas including but not limited to:

Observing and understanding short- and long-term changes in climate, the ozone layer, and land cover;
Identifying the impacts of these changes on ecosystems and society;
Estimating future changes in the physical environment, and vulnerabilities and risks associated with those changes; and
Providing scientific information to enable effective decision making to address the threats and opportunities posed by climate and global change.
These advances have been documented in numerous assessments commissioned by the program and have played prominent roles in international assessments such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Program results and plans are documented in the program's annual report, Our Changing Planet.
Desertification is a process of continuous, gradual ecosystem degradation, during which plants and animals, and geological resources such as water and soil, are stressed beyond their ability to adjust to changing conditions. Because desertification occurs gradually, and the processes responsible for it are understood, it can often be avoided by planning or reversed before irreparable damage occurs. The physical characteristics of land undergoing desertification include progressive loss of mature, stabilizing vegetation from the ecosystem, or loss of agricultural crop cover during periods of drought or economic infeasibility, and a resulting loss of unconsolidated topsoil. This process is called deflation. Erosion by wind and water then winnows the fine-grained silt and clay particles from the soil; dramatic dust storms like those observed during the 1930's Dust Bowl in the American mid-west, and in northern Africa, were essentially composed of blowing topsoil. Continued irrigation of desertified land increases soil salinity, and contaminates groundwater, but does little to reverse the loss of productivity. Finally, ongoing wind and water erosion leads to development of gullies and sand dunes across the deflated land surface.

Read more: Desertification - Processes Of Desertification - Land, Drought, Soil, and Human - JRank Articles http://science.jrank.org/pages/2022/Desertificatio n-Processes-desertification.html#ixzz2GYQawrin
Quoting LargoFl:
..yeah i know, not much me and you can do, we sit, we read, we see the weather changes but unless all people change we all will pay for the destruction of the environment, the changing weather patterns, the lack of rain, and later on, without rain goes the crops etc..im glad in nearing the end stages of life, i hate to think what the future is going to look like for my grand children..a very different climate they will see and worse..THEIR grand children..
Quoting LargoFl:
I read somewhere..that back in Biblical times, the so called Garden Of Eden..was located somewhere near present day Iraq..well the people there, lil by lil cut down the tree's etc..made houses and cities, kept cutting down more tree's thru the ages..NOW look at it..a desert country...its a lesson in area climate change we in the USA need to learn from..but we wont
Quoting LargoFl:
“We’re changing the environment — it’s very clear,” said Thomas R. Knutson, a research meteorologist with the government’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. “We’re changing global temperature, we’re changing atmospheric moisture, we’re changing a lot of things. Humans are running this experiment, and we’re not quite sure how it’s going to turn out.”


I don't know how common sense has been kicked aside..
Unless it's for the almighty dollar(here in the US anyway)..
I have to admit though there are many good and aware folks trying to set things right(Sierra Club ect..)
Most turn ablind eye to the subject..
Iraq will not recover unless GW does it for them..
Quoting LargoFl:
Humans love to change their surroundings..they love concrete and steel, they love tearing down the forests and building yet more houses and concreting the area for roads etc..well..there IS a price to pay for doing that huh..and we are beginning to see...the price we pay for it..I dunno the answer, dont know how..we people change but somehow..we must, florida is taking lil steps towards this,planting tree's everywhere they can in their cities etc..we probably need to do so much more here in that regard but..they are noticcing the subtle changes and trying to do something about it..i know..i keep repeating myself about the importance of tree's, remembering its tree's..who help make rain, as absurd as that sounds but its true...


Arcology reduces the footprint and reduces the total surface area of buildings, which decreases heat waste losses.

Unfortunately, it's been tried and failed because people are irrational. The architects end up catering to the irrational people's expectations, and therefore wasting a lot of space with ceilings 3 times higher than they should be, too many windows where they aren't needed, too few windows where they are needed, escalators where people should walk, etc.

At least some corporate farming has switched to greenhouses for some types of crops. This is far more efficient over the long term than open fields, but costs much more in start-up costs. The reduction in the number of pest insects, and the ability to control temperature extremes is well worth it over time.

However, like anything else, the more advanced a technique or technology becomes at what it does, the more likely it is to become easy to disrupt. Severe wind or hail events could destroy greenhouses before they pay for themselves in benefits. If a tornado hits an open field, you only lose the crop. If it hits a greenhouse, you lose the crop and the greenhouse. Yet you can get 5 to as much as 15 times as much usable produce per unit area from a greenhouse as from open fields, so that every acre of greenhouses would potentially save 4 to 14 acres of forest.


Greenhouses aren't the only way to reduce footprint of farming. GM could do it, but I dislike GM because it introduces possible cross-over points for viruses and such.

However, it occurs to me that so-called "red" vegetables, such as "red cabbage" are actually purple. This means they absorb green light, and reflect or emit red and blue light. It would seem that if you wanted a food crop to be more efficient, then you'd want it to absorb as much light as possible. So if you could somehow make the plant absorb all Red, blue, and green, instead of just one or two of the colors, it might be able to grow faster. On the other hand if it absorbed all 3 colors it might not be ale to cool itself fast enough, which may be why little to nothing in nature has black or brown leaves when it's alive. Anyway, the point is that a GM crop which has been engineered so that it absorbs all spectra of visible light should grow faster as long as you can keep it from over heating.

As humans, we're not used to eating very many black or brown fruits or vegetables, though there are some exceptions, but the color of the leaves, i.e. what the chlorophyll absorbs, is what is important, so the food portion of the plant need not be changed.


Change...a lot easier said than done.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all. A beautiful morning in San Juan without a cloud and blue sky with temperture of 75F as of 9 AM AST. It looks like New Years Eve and New Years day will be with the same kind of weather.

What's San Juan's record all-time low temperature?
Just think of this for one minute..if..every human in the united states..planted ONE tree..there would be more that 3 million new tree's in the USA...ever walk in the shade of a tree when it was blasting hot in the summertime?..notice the difference in temps?..one its giving shade, two its releasing water vapor thru its leaves..feels cool huh
Quoting Klolly23:

What's San Juan's record all-time low temperature?



Record Cool Low Temperatures

A cool, dry airmass, combined with clear skies and light winds, resulted in near record and new record low temperatures across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands over the weekend of December 3rd, 2010. New record low temperatures were established at the Christiansted Airport on Saint Croix for the mornings of December 2nd-5th, 2010. At the Cyril E. King Airport on Saint Thomas, new record low temperatures were established on both December 3rd and December 5th, 2010. Finally, at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan, near record low temperatures were recorded from December 3rd-5th, 2010. These new/near record low temperatures, along with other notable low temperatures from several official NWS Cooperative Weather Observers for the weekend of December 3rd, 2010, can be found in the tables below.
Quoting LargoFl:
Just think of this for one minute..if..every human in the united states..planted ONE tree..there would be more that 3 million new tree's in the USA...ever walk in the shade of a tree when it was blasting hot in the summertime?..notice the difference in temps?..one its giving shade, two its releasing water vapor thru its leaves..feels cool huh



er, just for continuity, that would be 300 million new trees.
Quoting LargoFl:
Just think of this for one minute..if..every human in the united states..planted ONE tree..there would be more that 3 million new tree's in the USA...ever walk in the shade of a tree when it was blasting hot in the summertime?..notice the difference in temps?..one its giving shade, two its releasing water vapor thru its leaves..feels cool huh


Not to mention the absorbtion of Co2..
And nature can take her toll on millions of trees in a single day.




With the help of NASA satellite data, a research team has estimated that Hurricane Katrina killed or severely damaged 320 million large trees in Gulf Coast forests, which weakened the role the forests play in storing carbon from the atmosphere. The damage has led to these forests releasing large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.


Forests Damaged by Hurricane Katrina Become Major Carbon Source

11/5/07
Thanks for the link and time Pat. Much appreciated. 68F, I thought I'd see 50s, but was quite surprised. Thanks again :)
Your quite welcome.

: )
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Major Alaska storm




______________________
NEW YEAR'S EVE'S EVE





click on all imager for larger view


Right now it is 47.2°F here, Airport (KRAL) showing 42°F
Quoting Klolly23:
Thanks for the link and time Pat. Much appreciated. 68F, I thought I'd see 50s, but was quite surprised. Thanks again :)


In the towns of the interior part of Puerto Rico the lows go to the low to mid 50's in the winter months. But also there have been low records in the upper 40's like what occured in the town of Aibonito in the 1960's decade.

Thanks Pat for posting the answer to what Klolly23 asked.
Quoting LargoFl:
I read somewhere..that back in Biblical times, the so called Garden Of Eden..was located somewhere near present day Iraq..well the people there, lil by lil cut down the tree's etc..made houses and cities, kept cutting down more tree's thru the ages..NOW look at it..a desert country...its a lesson in area climate change we in the USA need to learn from..but we wont


See my blog.
WINGED SUNSPOT: The sunspot number briefly jumped yesterday, Dec. 29th, when a winged silhouette flew across the face of the sun. It was the International Space Station (ISS). Earl Foster photographed the transit from Garland, Texas:



Flying faster than 17,000 mph, the ISS took only a fraction of a second to cross the entire solar disk. "I knew precisely when to look thanks to CalSky," says Foster, who used a Solarmax90 solar telescope and a DMK41 digital camera to record the event.

The station's path took it directly in front of an unnumbered active region just north of sunspot AR1638. Solar activity has been low for weeks. So, as expected, no flares occured during the transit. With the sun so quiet, the only breaks in the monotony are provided by spaceships passing by.

Link


The low pressure offshore Canada bombed to 959 mb ....DANG!
Quoting pcola57:
WINGED SUNSPOT: The sunspot number briefly jumped yesterday, Dec. 29th, when a winged silhouette flew across the face of the sun. It was the International Space Station (ISS). Earl Foster photographed the transit from Garland, Texas:



Flying faster than 17,000 mph, the ISS took only a fraction of a second to cross the entire solar disk. "I knew precisely when to look thanks to CalSky," says Foster, who used a Solarmax90 solar telescope and a DMK41 digital camera to record the event.

The station's path took it directly in front of an unnumbered active region just north of sunspot AR1638. Solar activity has been low for weeks. So, as expected, no flares occured during the transit. With the sun so quiet, the only breaks in the monotony are provided by spaceships passing by.

Link


As a amateur astrophotagrapher I know how difficult that can be as well. Though Ive never done any Sun Work, just targeting a Sphere with the right timing and field of view can be a difficult challenge.

Check out Jeff Masters imaging the Venus transit in the photo on the right side of this page too.He is using a Newtonion reflector scope imaging onto a white background.
Quoting Patrap:



er, just for continuity, that would be 300 million new trees.
exactly..a brand new forest cooling the earth around us, releasing all that water vapor into the air, in fact creating clouds which later condense into the very rainfall people are crying for..but..the million dollar question..WILL they do it?..no


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT IN LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. FREEZING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE LAKES BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INTERIOR SECTIONS SOUTH OF THE LAKES MAY APPROACH FREEZING BUT WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY...AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A GULF LOW.
Quoting LargoFl:
exactly..a brand new forest cooling the earth around us, releasing all that water vapor into the air, in fact creating clouds which later condense into the very rainfall people are crying for..but..the million dollar question..WILL they do it?..no


I think your Idea, being noble is out of scale with reality.

The 5 million acres of Trees Katrina affected had about 300 million damaged or destroyed trees. The ratio of cities square miles to natural growth forests is very low, Like 4 %.

The August 2005 hurricane affected five million acres of forest across Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama, with damage ranging from downed trees, snapped trunks and broken limbs to stripped leaves.


So that is food for thought. The damage were doing by changing the atmospheres composition is way more overwhelming of a challenge to confront by just adding forest to the Earth.


The warming continues at a faster rate than all the political will could ever do to change the eventful outcome.

All the Global Climate models have severely underplayed the warming and the rate of it.

Were just now realizing by the arctic and other indicators globally of how that rate is changing, and how mans capacity to adapt to the increasing temps is no where capable of keeping pace with such a rapid change.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Major Alaska storm




______________________
NRE YEAR'S EVE'S EVE





click on all imager for larger view
..Excerpt,,...Captain William Mynors of the Royal Mary, a British East India Company vessel, named the island when he sailed past it on Christmas Day in 1643. The island was included on British and Dutch navigation charts as early as the beginning of the seventeenth century, but it was not until 1666 when a map published by Dutch cartographer Pieter Goos included the island. Goos labelled the island Mony, the meaning of which is unclear. British navigator William Dampier, aboard the British ship Cygnet, made the earliest recorded visit to sea round the island in March 1688. He found it uninhabited. Dampier gave an account of the visit which can be found in his Voyages. Dampier was trying to reach Cocos from New Holland. His ship was pulled off course in an easterly direction, arriving at Christmas Island 28 days later. Dampier landed at the Dales (on the west coast). Two of his crewmen were the first recorded humans to set foot on Christmas Island....
Quoting Patrap:


I think your Idea, being noble is out of scale with reality.

The 5 million acres of Trees Katrina affected had about 300 million damaged or destroyed trees. The ratio of cities square miles to natural growth forests is very low, Like 4 %.

The August 2005 hurricane affected five million acres of forest across Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama, with damage ranging from downed trees, snapped trunks and broken limbs to stripped leaves.


So that is food for thought. The damage were doing by changing the atmospheres composition is way more overwhelming of a challenge to confront by just adding forest to the Earth.


The warming continues at a faster rate than all the political will could ever do to change the eventful outcome.

All the Global Climate models have severely underplayed the warming and the rate of it.

Were just now realizing by the arctic and other indicators globally of how that rate is changing, and how mans capacity to adapt to the increasing temps is no where capable of keeping pace with such a rapid change.



I have only one thing to add here Pat.
we have had a window of several years of opportunity to plant those 300 million(more or less) tress since Katrina..
I think we should have done something instead of nothing in the way of re-forestation..
No?
Ps..Maybe there is a project that I'm not aware of..

Quoting pcola57:


I have only one thing to add here Pat.
we have had a window of several years of opportunity to plant those 300 million(more or less) tress since Katrina..
I think we should have done something instead of nothing in the way of re-forestation..
No?


Nature has already begun that process and though it takes time...she does recover.

But I receive and agree with your premise though. Many groups are replenishing trees downed by Karina and the damage to the wetlands done by BP's oil disaster in 2010.

There is beaucoup info on line about both.
Quoting Patrap:


Nature has already begun that process and though it takes time...she does recover.

But I receive and agree with your premise though. Many groups are replenishing trees and the damage to the wetlands done by BP's oil disaster in 2010.

There is beaucoup info on line about both.


Thanks Pat..I will try to better inform myself.. :)
Lordy, my last post was the anti-post seems.

"666"

Sheesh
That storm on the NE coast should be getting more warm core as it hits the warm spot..



Quoting Patrap:
Lordy, my last post was the anti-post seems.

Sheesh


LOL
..of great note,

Forests Damaged by Hurricane Katrina Become Major Carbon Source 11.15.07


The NASA-built Landsat 5, part of the Landsat series of Earth-observing satellites, takes detailed images of the Earth’s surface. Chambers combined results from the Landsat image sampling with data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument on NASA's Terra satellite to estimate the size of the entire forested area affected by Katrina. The instrument can detect minute changes in the color spectrum on the land below, enabling it to measure differences in the percentage of live and dead vegetation. This helps researchers improve their estimates of changes in carbon storage and improves their ability to track the location of carbon sinks and sources.

The field samples and satellite images, along with results from computer models that simulate the kind of vegetation and other traits that make up the forests, were used to measure the total tree loss the hurricane inflicted. The scientists then calculated total carbon losses to be equivalent to 60-100 percent of the net annual carbon sink in U.S. forest trees. "It is surprising to learn that one extreme event can release nearly as much carbon to the atmosphere as all U.S. forests can store in an average year," said Diane Wickland, manager of the Terrestrial Ecology Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "Satellite data enabled Chambers’ research team to pin down the extent of tree damage so that we now know how these kinds of severe storms affect the carbon cycle and our atmosphere. Satellite technology has really proven its worth in helping researchers like Chambers assess important changes in our planet’s carbon cycle."
Winter Storm Freyr dumped more snow than originally anticipated. Most locations across the Northeast received 6-12", some locations across the area received 12-18". Maine was the hot-spot with the southeastern portion of the state picking up nearly 20 inches.
Katrina destroyed alot of trees that lived on tree farms too. Luckily for the tree farmers subsidies were high & nearly all trees, even if you're a absent tree farmer was replanted within a year. Govt payed money not just for damaged trees but to get them replanted as soon as feasible. Katrina plus govt was really good to the tree farmers bottom line. That being said I saw mine this summer & trees just take a while to grow. They are still really small compared to the stand Katrina destroyed. These juveniles can't be pulling as much Carbon per year. About all the tree farms in that area have the same young trees. Katrina killed huge swaths of trees.
And while on the topic of cold and snow, the GFS and ECMWF models show significant stratospheric warming across the North Pole and Canada towards the middle of January. With the NAO expected to fall rapidly at that time, and with the AO expected to rise rapidly at that time, it's about to get very cold for many across the United States.
The split & temporary collapse of the polar vortex we've seen in recent years has been interesting.. Considering it tends to happen after solstice, one of these years it's not going to set back up for the rest of winter.
Quoting Patrap:
..of great note,

Forests Damaged by Hurricane Katrina Become Major Carbon Source 11.15.07


The NASA-built Landsat 5, part of the Landsat series of Earth-observing satellites, takes detailed images of the Earth%u2019s surface. Chambers combined results from the Landsat image sampling with data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument on NASA's Terra satellite to estimate the size of the entire forested area affected by Katrina. The instrument can detect minute changes in the color spectrum on the land below, enabling it to measure differences in the percentage of live and dead vegetation. This helps researchers improve their estimates of changes in carbon storage and improves their ability to track the location of carbon sinks and sources.

The field samples and satellite images, along with results from computer models that simulate the kind of vegetation and other traits that make up the forests, were used to measure the total tree loss the hurricane inflicted. The scientists then calculated total carbon losses to be equivalent to 60-100 percent of the net annual carbon sink in U.S. forest trees. "It is surprising to learn that one extreme event can release nearly as much carbon to the atmosphere as all U.S. forests can store in an average year," said Diane Wickland, manager of the Terrestrial Ecology Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "Satellite data enabled Chambers%u2019 research team to pin down the extent of tree damage so that we now know how these kinds of severe storms affect the carbon cycle and our atmosphere. Satellite technology has really proven its worth in helping researchers like Chambers assess important changes in our planet%u2019s carbon cycle."


Wow!!
Thats amazing..



Thanx for the insight and inside words on that skyepony, your always one to bring good stuff.
Link looks like a very well organized noreaster
Its easy to forget that when a tree dies it immediately begins returning its carbon back into the surrounding environment. First the foliage, then the woody parts, branches, trunks and roots. I had not really considered all the forest damage until Pat brought it up, but it makes perfect sense.
Thanks Pat~

IRG~ Though that happened in the swamps..the tree farm damaged wood went to market.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Major Stratwarm to force tropospheric cooling over N America, setting stage for bitter arctic attack mid/late Jan pic.twitter.com/EU0m5Q0n

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
I am sure other mets will start drawing your attention to this. ( stratwarms in mid winter associated with major cold)

wonder if its true
One personal note/story on trees post K.


Where I usually go crawfishing off of US 61 West of Louis Armstrong Airport by 3-5 miles, the storm felled cypress trees were so many along with decaying limb debris that we couldn't ,in 08, place our nets to the source water due to all the debris in the way.

But one good thing is the crawfish have increased their numbers greatly and where we can net down, we get great yields now.


Quoting hydrus:
..Excerpt,,...Captain William Mynors of the Royal Mary, a British East India Company vessel, named the island when he sailed past it on Christmas Day in 1643. The island was included on British and Dutch navigation charts as early as the beginning of the seventeenth century, but it was not until 1666 when a map published by Dutch cartographer Pieter Goos included the island. Goos labelled the island Mony, the meaning of which is unclear. British navigator William Dampier, aboard the British ship Cygnet, made the earliest recorded visit to sea round the island in March 1688. He found it uninhabited. Dampier gave an account of the visit which can be found in his Voyages. Dampier was trying to reach Cocos from New Holland. His ship was pulled off course in an easterly direction, arriving at Christmas Island 28 days later. Dampier landed at the Dales (on the west coast). Two of his crewmen were the first recorded humans to set foot on Christmas Island....


and ?
Quoting Skyepony:
That storm on the NE coast should be getting more warm core as it hits the warm spot..





a huge 959 mb...so fast it intensified
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Major Stratwarm to force tropospheric cooling over N America, setting stage for bitter arctic attack mid/late Jan pic.twitter.com/EU0m5Q0n

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
I am sure other mets will start drawing your attention to this. ( stratwarms in mid winter associated with major cold)

wonder if its true

Just posted about it in post #674.
Quoting Skyepony:
Thanks Pat~

IRG~ Though that happened in the swamps..the tree farm damaged wood went to market.


Sometimes swamp tress end up under the water, which is anoxic, and delays much of the carbon return.

The market still involves carbon return. Sawdust dressing the wood to lumber, and added to that is the impact of the power necessary to create usable lumber, then ship it, then use it.

And the losses have a double whammy. You lost the "uptake" that has been giving life to the trees, then you add decomp giving up carbon.

As Pat said Skye, you have been bringing some very good stuff to the blog for years. I always learn from, and enjoy your participation. Thanks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Winter Storm Freyr dumped more snow than originally anticipated. Most locations across the Northeast received 6-12", some locations across the area received 12-18". Maine was the hot-spot with the southeastern portion of the state picking up nearly 20 inches.
Next one the list is Gandalf right?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Major Stratwarm to force tropospheric cooling over N America, setting stage for bitter arctic attack mid/late Jan pic.twitter.com/EU0m5Q0n

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
I am sure other mets will start drawing your attention to this. ( stratwarms in mid winter associated with major cold)

wonder if its true


We've been talking about it here for a few days now. TA13 just brought it up. When the vortex splits the cold air does tend to spill well south. So far this year Russia & China have really taken the cold spills but the models are calling for a change that would bring it this way.


Thanks IRG..
Land use change (deforestation) around the world is a major source of CO2. The tree farms at least will continue to grow trees.

What came from trees can be returned to trees--if land use does not change. The quantity that comes from fossil fuels is going to be around a lot longer--your children's children's children's ... children's time.

The carbon sinks cannot keep up.
As we say in Se. La.


Geaux Sneaux !!!
Quoting allancalderini:
Next one the list is Gandalf right?

Maybe TWC could issue winter storm stickers. Collect the whole set!
The 7 Hottest Climate Change Stories of 2012

(from livescience.com) Link
Quoting Skyepony:
Katrina destroyed alot of trees that lived on tree farms too. Luckily for the tree farmers subsidies were high & nearly all trees, even if you're a absent tree farmer was replanted within a year. Govt payed money not just for damaged trees but to get them replanted as soon as feasible. Katrina plus govt was really good to the tree farmers bottom line. That being said I saw mine this summer & trees just take a while to grow. They are still really small compared to the stand Katrina destroyed. These juveniles can't be pulling as much Carbon per year. About all the tree farms in that area have the same young trees. Katrina killed huge swaths of trees.


Thanks Skye,
That address my concerns in post#665..
(And thanks to Pat as well)
I pray that soon they mature and complete the healing..
Although I do realize it is cyclical..
Before my father died,here on our property he cut all the trees down because of the damage they caused when combined with Hurricaine Ivan at the time..
I still cannot convince my mother to plant a single tree.. :(
Quoting bappit:

Maybe TWC could issue winter storm stickers. Collect the whole set!


yes, I can see it now.. Storm cups at mac donalds... with cantore action figures sold separately
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Major Stratwarm to force tropospheric cooling over N America, setting stage for bitter arctic attack mid/late Jan pic.twitter.com/EU0m5Q0n




Speaking of climate change.....

My chase season is now based out of Oklahoma,

so, check out my site, easy live stream viewing as well as a chat feature


StormIntercept
I swear.

I may give up trying to understand what's happening to this planet.



Antarctica has been way colder than average every day for like 2 weeks now, for no apparent reason.

I'm starting to wonder if there was an un-reported volcano or something, or if world governments are starting the SO2 release geo-engineering plan already.
Quoting Patrap:
Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi
Major Stratwarm to force tropospheric cooling over N America, setting stage for bitter arctic attack mid/late Jan pic.twitter.com/EU0m5Q0n






Hey Pat..
I see the JB word again..
(post#695)
(typing from under my desk.LOL)
Don't worry no comment except can you help explain the image comparison..
I'm lost..
Something seems whacky..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20122013
22:00 PM RET December 30 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 10.9S 59.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.3S 57.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 11.9S 57.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 14.1S 55.8E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 18.6S 55.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Latest ASCAT pass at 1715z was very helpful to assess both position, structure and intensity of the system. If winds are weak close to the center (within roughly a degrees radius from the center), near gale force winds are occurring trough a significant part of the northern semi-circle... and up to 120 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect...this wind field structure is close to a monsoon depression.

On the northern edge of a low to mid-level ridge, the system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion could be affected by a contradictory westerly to northwesterly steering flow generated by the near equatorial ridge located to the north east of the system resulting in a slow and irregular motion. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system (axed between 65e and 70.0E). Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. Available numerical weather prediction models are in lower agreement compared to 24 hours ago ...with disagreement coming from the location of the southwards turn ... GFDN and NOGAPS (0600 run) make the turn more to the west (just west of 55e). Latest run of ALADIN-REUNION show a turn near 58.0E ... current track remain close to the previous one and is adjusted according to first outputs from 1200z ECMWF. It is worth noting that the ECMWF ensemble show little spread ...giving a high degree of confidence in the deterministic solution.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear (main inhibitor currently) should gradually decrease until monday. On monday and mainly on Tuesday, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south).

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. Agalega is currently affected by heavy rainfalls (154 mm in the last 12 hours at 1800z)

It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position... specially at long range. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to be large and associated hazards could affect widespread areas.
Quoting allancalderini:
Next one the list is Gandalf right?

Gandolf.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gandolf.


thank God for that spelling correction, could have been catastrophic
Tokyo Almost As Irradiated As Fukushima

Link

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/12/tokyo-almo st-as-irradiated-as-fukushima.html
Maybe JB could tell me which comes first. Does the cooling troposphere and lowering tropopause cause the stratosphere to sink and warm? How could it happen in reverse?

JB goes with ad hoc ergo propter hoc methinks.
05R - 30 knots (10 min)
2012DEC30 190000 2.0 1000.0/ 0.0 / 30.0 1.7 2.0 2.3 0.5T/hour ON OFF 5.74 -10.30 SHEAR

Freda (05F) 110-115 knots (100 kts 10 min)
2012DEC30 183200 4.5 968.5/ 2.5 / 77.0 4.5 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -38.08 -75.69 EYE
Freda is having troubles with dry air in its eyewall. This may prevent it from becoming a Category 4-equivalent cyclone before weakening begins tomorrow.



97S looks less than impressive right now, but it's forecast to become even more intense than Freda in a few days.

Winter Storm Ghandalhf
Quoting bappit:
Maybe JB could tell me which comes first. Does the cooling troposphere and lowering tropopause cause the stratosphere to sink and warm? How could it happen in reverse?

JB goes with ad hoc ergo propter hoc methinks.


Are you just trying to find any problem with JB?
It doesn't seem to be debated what he said.
Or maybe you don't want any cold weather, you know cold doesnt disprove AGW right? :)
I see the Doc made WUWT again.
Link
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Tokyo Almost As Irradiated As Fukushima

Link


link didn't work for me Zeph
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Are you just trying to find any problem with JB?
It doesn't seem to be debated what he said.
Or maybe you don't want any cold weather, you know cold doesnt disprove AGW right? :)

No, bappit is completely right. Just because there is stratospheric warming, that doesn't automatically lead to very cold air and cooling across the United States like JB implied. It depends on several factors.
A shark ate my shark:
Quoting JupiterKen:
I see the Doc made WUWT again.
Link


Thats a pretty scathing article..
I'd like to see others here with more knowledge than I give it a read..
NWSChicago: #Chicago has now broken the record of consecutive days w/o a sub freezing high temp, set in 12/15/1878. #309
Quoting JupiterKen:
I see the Doc made WUWT again.
Link


That was a rather interesting read. I look forward to someone smarter than me discussing this.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NWSChicago: #Chicago has now broken the record of consecutive days w/o a sub freezing high temp, set in 12/15/1878. #309


That was GW back in 1878 that caused that.
717. txjac
Quoting indianrivguy:


link didn't work for me Zeph


Didnt for me either and am interested in reading it

Could you please repost or identify the source so we can read it?

TIA
Quoting indianrivguy:


link didn't work for me Zeph


Thanks; I think I've fixed it, but here it is again: Link

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/12/tokyo-almo st-as-irradiated-as-fukushima.html
Quoting JupiterKen:
I see the Doc made WUWT again.
Link

It would be nice to see Dr. Masters respond to this.
Got it;

Tokyo Almost As Irradiated As Fukushima

ahh, too slow I was....well done, thanks!

edit; That's some scary stuff there.
721. txjac
Quoting txjac:


Didnt for me either and am interested in reading it

Could you please repost or identify the source so we can read it?

TIA


Ha! Quoting myself ...lol

However whenever I read anything about the Fukushima disaster it makes me wonder about the impace on our globe. Compound that with the nuclear bomb tests and such over the years and wonder how much that imapacts what we are seeing now with the climate?

Anyone know?
Chicago's record will not last too much longer. Low to mid-20s are expected to make their way into the city by Tuesday.

723. txjac
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Thanks; I think I've fixed it, but here it is again: Link

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/12/tokyo-almo st-as-irradiated-as-fukushima.html

Wow, that is ...ummm ....no words can explain it.
How frightening
hydrus: Excerpt,,...Captain William Mynors of the Royal Mary, a British East India Company vessel, named the island when he sailed past it on Christmas Day in 1643...
683 trHUrrIXC5MMX: and?

Just indulging ones curiosity ("Christmas Island?"), then sharing an interesting tidbit.
Which is why I often leave links to cities, islands, etc. eg One of my straightline projections passed over the French fishing town in which canned sardines were invented.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Chicago's record will not last too much longer. Low to mid-20s are expected to make their way into the city by Tuesday.



We've had more snow and cold here in Oklahoma then in Chicago it seems
In general,good weather will prevail in Puerto Rico
for New Years eve and New Years day.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST SUN DEC 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE FA THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE
WILL STILL BE BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...RESULTING IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THEN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FA...
RESULTING IN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS.
ALSO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST SOUTHEAST BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL EVENTUALLY TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA COULD MEAN
VCSH FOR TIST AND TISX FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
AGAIN IN THE EVENING DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT...
CAUSING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AFTER 31/12Z INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...IN BUILDING LONG PERIOD...
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AND
ADJACENT WATERS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION...THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS...AND ALTHOUGH IT
MAY END UP BORDERLINE ON THE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS...HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 72 82 / 30 30 20 30
STT 74 85 73 85 / 30 30 10 20
I wonder how people will feel going to see 'The Hobbit' while they're being affected by Winter Storm Gandalf*


*They had to go one letter off due to copyright, IIRC. They do indeed mean the wizard.
Posted 19 minutes ago

Interesting to note the tropospheric polar vortex at d16 shifts from Siberia into Sapporo!

Insane conditions over northern Japan ! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...-13-384.png ?12 http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/745...page__st__1 640
Quoting indianrivguy:
Got it;

Tokyo Almost As Irradiated As Fukushima

ahh, too slow I was....well done, thanks!

edit; That's some scary stuff there.


I tend to take everything with a grain of salt. In general, ENE news seems to be not in the embellishment game too much, but is a touch strident in tone. I would've liked to have seen news sources beyond that one site and the blogger's own history though.
Quoting aspectre:
hydrus: Excerpt,,...Captain William Mynors of the Royal Mary, a British East India Company vessel, named the island when he sailed past it on Christmas Day in 1643...
683 trHUrrIXC5MMX: and?

Just indulging ones curiosity ("Christmas Island?"), then sharing an interesting tidbit.
Which is why I often leave links to cities,islands,etc. eg One of my straightline projections passed over the French fishing town in which canned sardines were invented.


the Christmas Island aka is also called Kiritimati island...it is located in an island chain called the Line Islands
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA, CATEGORY FOUR (05F)
6:00 AM FST December 31 2012
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (940 hPa) located at 15.8S 161.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection remains persistent near the center. Cloud tops warming past 6 hours. Strong upper divergence present to southeast of system. System lies in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow remains good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. FREDA is being steered south southeast by north northwest deep layer wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with DG eye embedded in B yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.5 and PT=6.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with gradual weakening after 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 16.8S 160.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.8S 160.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.6S 160.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Quoting indianrivguy:
Got it;

Tokyo Almost As Irradiated As Fukushima

ahh, too slow I was....well done, thanks!

edit; That's some scary stuff there.
YES.... Really scary, scary stuff. And no news media broadcasts????

Quoting JustPlantIt:

YES.... Really scary, scary stuff. And no news media broadcasts????
West coast of Cali????

Quoting pcola57:
Currently Active Live Fukushima Cam
Can't plug into it....
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Can't plug into it....


I'm watching as I post..
I dunno what the problem you may be experiencing is..
Maybe someone here can help..


System Requirements

"Fukuichi Live camera" is being delivered by the Windows Media form.
The working environment necessary to revival of a video is as follows.
Requirements
Windows XP / Windows Vista / Windows 7
Browser : Internet Explorer 6 or later
* It's also possible to see in FireFox,Chrome,Safari,Opera about a browser, but it's necessary to install Windows Media Player plug-in in video revival.
(Reference) site about a plug-in of each browser
%u30FB Firefox (mozilla)

Add-ons for Firefox Firefox
%u30FB chrome (Google)
Plug-ins - Google Chrome Help
%u30FB Safari (Apple)
Plug-ins for Safari on Windows
%u30FB Opera (Opera Software)
Plug-ins
* It's to use the plug-in which adds support of Windows Media to QuickTime (Flip4Mac) by Mac OS, and animation of the Windows Media form can sometimes be played.
(There is a possibility that the environment that you're correcting and are using can't play.)
Please refer to the following site about details.
Windows Media Components for QuickTime (Microsoft website)
* Animation can't sometimes normally be played by the PC society you're using (the performance and setting) and the communication environment (line speed and the connection environment) etc..
737. txjac
Quoting pcola57:


I'm watching as I post..
I dunno what the problem you may be experiencing is..
Maybe someone here can help..


Look and see if you see a pop up ...I had to allow it on this website that pcola sent in order to view

Quoting pcola57:


I'm watching as I post..
I dunno what the problem you may be experiencing is..
Maybe someone here can help..
I'll try and find it elsewhere. Thanks.
Well, here are some other Fukushima information websites:

Link

Link

Link (This one gives more of a mainstream-corporate slant)

Link

The New Scientist also is taking a 'play it down' role:Link

It makes sense to gather as much information from a variety of sources as you can. In my personal experience, I come away from many of the larger science magazines and the NAS as being essentially mouth-pieces for corporatia, and I almost never trust what they say. It isn't that I wouldn't prefer to; I would.
741. txjac
Loving this cool weather here in Houston, in the low 50's right now. Put on a pot of navy bean and ham soup and am in the process of making homemade bread ...gonna be great later on today. With the upcoming rain tomorrow it will be heavenly
Quoting JustPlantIt:

I'll try and find it elsewhere. Thanks.


Sorry JustPlantIt..
Wish I could be more of a help..
Tuna radiated to 3% above natural background at California.

That's insignificant.

A chest X-ray is like a couple orders of magnitude more than that.
Quoting txjac:
Loving this cool weather here in Houston, in the low 50's right now. Put on a pot of navy bean and ham soup and am in the process of making homemade bread ...gonna be great later on today. With the upcoming rain tomorrow it will be heavenly


Well that beats my "diet" restrictions..
I can taste those beans now..mmmm..
Homemade bread to boot..
Your killing me.. :)
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Well, here are some other Fukushima information websites:

Link

Link

Link (This one gives more of a mainstream-corporate slant)

Link

The New Scientist also is taking a 'play it down' role:Link

It makes sense to gather as much information from a variety of sources as you can. In my personal experience, I come away from many of the larger science magazines and the NAS as being essentially mouth-pieces for corporatia, and I almost never trust what they say. It isn't that I wouldn't prefer to; I would.


Thanks MZ..
Man they have some serious issues..

Link
Doesn't look like it is good for fishing on the west coast. Am I just stupid or could this be an impact to seafood along the West Coast? It would seem that this will be a long term problem too. Very concerned that this is not a news worthy item in the states or elsewhere. I could go on... but I get really sensitive about these issues.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Doesn't look like it is good for fishing on the west coast. Am I just stupid or could this be an impact to seafood along the West Coast? It would seem that this will be a long term problem too. Very concerned that this is not a news worthy item in the states or elsewhere. I could go on... but I get really sensitive about these issues.


Yeah..so do I JustPlantIt..
Your so right..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Are you just trying to find any problem with JB?
It doesn't seem to be debated what he said.
Or maybe you don't want any cold weather, you know cold doesnt disprove AGW right? :)


AGW...HA!
Quoting RTSplayer:
Tuna radiated to 3% above natural background at California.

That's insignificant.

A chest X-ray is like a couple orders of magnitude more than that.


Maybe. If you're not a tuna fisherman, don't work in the canning factory, and don't happened to be eating it, especially if you are pregnant.

Too, a chest Xray is like, what... one second long in time? But the tuna just swims there, being 3% more than the rest of the environment, all day long. A school of a hundred ... well... that WOULD, apparently, be getting close to your chest Xray. The trick part, of course, would be to get the patient between the film and fish.
Quoting Luisport:
Posted 19 minutes ago

Interesting to note the tropospheric polar vortex at d16 shifts from Siberia into Sapporo!

Insane conditions over northern Japan ! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...-13-384.png ?12 http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/745...page__st__1 640
any thoughts?
Quoting Luisport:
any thoughts?


I couldn't get either links to work but then I'm not sure of how or why the votexes are supposed to behave so my opinion would be useless to you..
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Maybe. If you're not a tuna fisherman, don't work in the canning factory, and don't happened to be eating it, especially if you are pregnant.

Too, a chest Xray is like, what... one second long in time? But the tuna just swims there, being 3% more than the rest of the environment, all day long. A school of a hundred ... well... that WOULD, apparently, be getting close to your chest Xray. The trick part, of course, would be to get the patient between the film and fish.


You don't understand how pathetic 3% above natural background is.

It's so insignificant that it doesn't matter.

You'd have to eat tons of the stuff before it equaled one chest X-ray.

The average American gets 3 milli sievert per year from medical imaging.

3% above background in tuna would mean that if you replaced all food you eat in a year with the contaminated tuna and ate only contaminated tuna, you would be exposed to about 0.0087 milli sievert of extra radiation above background, which is 345 times less than what the average American gets from medical X-Rays in a year, or about 717 times less than the total amount of radiation the average American is exposed to in a year already.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Background_radiation #Medical

Got any more paranoid ideas?
Mount Washington's Current WU weather link



Image Credit: MountWashington.org
National Snow & Ice Data Center


The Polar Vortex


The polar vortex is a persistent large-scale cyclonic circulation pattern in the middle and upper troposphere and the stratosphere, centered generally in the polar regions of each hemisphere. In the Arctic, the vortex is asymmetric and typically features a trough (an elongated area of low pressure) over eastern North America. It is important to note that the polar vortex is not a surface pattern. It tends to be well expressed at upper levels of the atmosphere (that is, above about five kilometers).





The nor'easter looks amazing on radar it is over cape Breton in nova scotia right now it almost looks tropical, but i can tell u the 45 cm of snow outside would tell u different http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID= XMB&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=C0R&zoommode=pan&ma p.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom =zoom&scale=1&showstorms=0&num=15&delay=15&showlab els=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0
Whenever we get the new Terahertz band medical scanners which are being developed now, it will reduce harmful radiation levels from medical and dental X-rays by such a dramatic amount that it will be over 300 times larger annual reduction in radiation than the increase that would be represented by eating those 3% contaminated tuna every day, every year.

Link oops i meant to put this .....
Quoting pcola57:


I couldn't get either links to work but then I'm not sure of how or why the votexes are supposed to behave so my opinion would be useless to you..
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2012 123012/gfsnh-13-384.png?12
Quoting RTSplayer:


You don't understand how pathetic 3% above natural background is.

It's so insignificant that it doesn't matter.

You'd have to eat tons of the stuff before it equaled one chest X-ray.

The average American gets 3 milli sievert per year from medical imaging.

3% above background in tuna would mean that if you replaced all food you eat in a year with the contaminated tuna and ate only contaminated tuna, you would be exposed to about 0.0087 milli sievert of extra radiation above background, which is 345 times less than what the average American gets from medical X-Rays in a year, or about 717 times less than the total amount of radiation the average American is exposed to in a year already.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Background_radiation #Medical

Got any more paranoid ideas?


You might be right... but ought that justify personal attacks? It's not paranoia ... it is reasonable to question and wonder about data that come round.

Here's a question for you and others like you: why the hair-trigger response to information that, shall we say, isn't on CNN? Too much coffee? 3rd tier charm school? Bad genes?

At any rate, I shared the info about Fukushima for those that might be interested. It is a somewhat slow weather day, for the most part.
Below info Updated at 2:30 PM**


The new 12z GFS forecast shows the polar vortex greatly displaced. Instead of being in the Arctic, it's all the way down in Japan! It appears another piece of the vortex may be off the coast of Europe. High pressure trapping the vortices south would theoretically deliver yet another crushing blow to the polar vortex, which I don't know will be able to recover fully in Jan-Feb.

Andrew http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/2012/12/polar- vortex-close-to-collapse.html
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


You might be right... but ought that justify personal attacks? It's not paranoia ... it is reasonable to question and wonder about data that come round.

Here's a question for you and others like you: why the hair-trigger response to information that, shall we say, isn't on CNN? Too much coffee? 3rd tier charm school? Bad genes?

At any rate, I shared the info about Fukushima for those that might be interested. It is a somewhat slow weather day, for the most part.


It's not about CNN.

Personally, I can't stand the mainstream media, because the only things they ever report on are:

War
Terrorism
Stock market (fake economics)
Politics (fake legal system)
Crime

Well, they mention some other things some times, but generally it's more of the same.

Not only that, they're just bad at reporting what they do report on. They all lie and manipulate the facts for their own agenda, so it's really not even worth watching.

So there's reasons you shouldn't watch the mainstream media, I don't care if it's FOX, CNN, ABC, HLN, or MSNBC, all of them suck at their jobs.

Back to Fukushima:

In order to be a threat to the U.S. it would need to be like 300 to 1000 times worse than it actually is, which isn't even physically possible because there wasn't enough nuclear fuel material damaged to cause that big of a disaster.

Tokyo and other parts of Japan are getting it hard, but that's because they are right next to the disaster site.

Radiation doesn't systematically seek out humans.

Quoting RTSplayer:


You don't understand how pathetic 3% above natural background is.

It's so insignificant that it doesn't matter.

You'd have to eat tons of the stuff before it equaled one chest X-ray.

The average American gets 3 milli sievert per year from medical imaging.

3% above background in tuna would mean that if you replaced all food you eat in a year with the contaminated tuna and ate only contaminated tuna, you would be exposed to about 0.0087 milli sievert of extra radiation above background, which is 345 times less than what the average American gets from medical X-Rays in a year, or about 717 times less than the total amount of radiation the average American is exposed to in a year already.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Background_radiation #Medical

Got any more paranoid ideas?
Here we go again! I really do love you.) Perhaps you would like to move to Japan, eat that seafood and get cancer. INSIGNIFICANCE does matter... it is what matters in the matter that we consume. Should not be in our food source. Perhaps you feel the same way about the modified and genetically altered seeds we plant here in the states. WELL... Most of Europe has banned what we produce in chemicals and as well as S. America. EQUAL does not allow or let us live a normal life. Maybe just yours and your lifetime... but your children will be ill with your condemnation of what you thought was 'Just a little bit'. DDT... ah, just a little bit. That list is growing. Please learn and get smart!
Related:Military| Defense| World War II
Military & Defense
Sailors sue Japanese company over Fukushima radiation


SAN DIEGO Eight U.S. sailors who were aboard the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan off the Japanese coast during the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year have sued the company that owns the power plant, claiming they were harmed by radiation exposure.

The lawsuit, filed last week in San Diego federal court, accuses Tokyo Electric Power Co., or Tepco, with covering up how much radiation was being released during and after the March 11, 2011, disaster.

The U.S. government unwittingly sent the San Diego-based Ronald Reagan into dangerous levels of radiation as a result, states the lawsuit, filed Dec. 21 by Encinitas attorney Paul C. Garner.

The ship assisted with American humanitarian operations in the region after the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, killing thousands. The Fukushima nuclear power plant failed after the tsunami knocked out power to reactor pumps, causing a meltdown and release of radiation.

In addition to the Reagan, the United States sent the San Diego-based destroyer Preble and the cruiser Chancellorsville to help with relief operations off Honshu, Japan.


The lawsuit seeks $40 million from Tepco for each of the eight sailors, and the same amount for a baby of one of them born seven months after the disaster. That amount includes $10 million in damages and $30 million in punitive damages per person. In addition, the suit seeks $100 million to provide medical care for all nine.

Six of the eight sailors were stationed on the Reagans flight deck, and one served as an air decontamination specialist, the lawsuit states. The eighth worked in the air department, which handles aircraft launches, landings and maintenance.

The sailors experienced great physical pain and mental anguish, require therapies such as chelation and bone marrow transplants, and have had their lives shortened, the lawsuit states. It accuses Tepco of negligence, fraud, and deceptive business practices, and other legal violations.

More specifically, symptoms include unremitting migraine headaches, difficulty in concentrating, weight loss, ulcers and rectal bleeding, Garner said.

Tepcos Washington, D.C., office did not respond to a request for comment Friday afternoon.

Two days after the disaster, the Navy said it had repositioned the Reagan after detecting low levels of contamination in the air and on 17 aircrew members who flew earthquake relief missions near the Fukushina plant.

The low-level radioactivity was easily removed from affected personnel by washing with soap and water,the U.S. Pacific Fleet said in a statement about that incidents were subsequently surveyed, and no further contamination was detected.

The statement said the maximum potential radiation dose personnel were exposed to was less than the radiation exposure received from about one month of exposure to natural background radiation from sources such as rocks, soil, and the sun.

Calls to the Navy on Friday afternoon and evening were not returned.

Garner said the U.S. government relied on information from Tepco and the Japanese government that it was safe to enter the area. That makes them liable for the damage.

They bring it upon themselves, basically, with the misinformation that they give out, Garner said.





Uploaded by USNavyVisualNews on Mar 13, 2011

PACIFIC OCEAN (March 13, 2011) U.S. Navy Sailors assigned to the Black Knights of Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 4 and Japanese relief workers load supplies aboard an SH-60 Sea Hawk helicopter to support earthquake and tsunami relief efforts near Sendai, Japan. The helicopter then flies along the coast before landing at Takihama, Japan where U.S. and Japanese forces work together to unload the helicopters. HS-4 is embarked aboard the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) off the coast of Japan rendering humanitarian assistance following an 8.9 magnitude earthquake and tsunami as part of Operation Tomodachi. (U.S. Navy video by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Armando Gonzalez/ Released)
hey guys i need some technical help, if possible. I have the standard text messaging forecasts to my phone for my area but now i don t have any more forecasts on my phone since the 28th and when i looked on my settings it shows that my phonee # is gone. i try to resubmit it and it sends my confirmation number but never lets me access the confirmation page to reregister my number. I messaged HELP to the shortcode # but it never returned a message
766. VR46L
I Can't Root for this storm just hope it dies soon projected to come, far too close to land

Freda Forecast track



Quoting Luisport:
Below info Updated at 2:30 PM**


The new 12z GFS forecast shows the polar vortex greatly displaced. Instead of being in the Arctic, it's all the way down in Japan! It appears another piece of the vortex may be off the coast of Europe. High pressure trapping the vortices south would theoretically deliver yet another crushing blow to the polar vortex, which I don't know will be able to recover fully in Jan-Feb.

Andrew http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/2012/12/polar- vortex-close-to-collapse.html
what can we get in Portugal?

Quoting JustPlantIt:

Here we go again! I really do love you.) Perhaps you would like to move to Japan, eat that seafood and get cancer. INSIGNIFICANCE does matter... it is what matters in the matter that we consume. Should not be in our food source. Perhaps you feel the same way about the modified and genetically altered seeds we plant here in the states. WELL... Most of Europe has banned what we produce in chemicals and as well as S. America. EQUAL does not allow or let us live a normal life. Maybe just yours and your lifetime... but your children will be ill with your condemnation of what you thought was 'Just a little bit'. DDT... ah, just a little bit. That list is growing. Please learn and get smart!
OK... Just read the above post of the warships willing to help. Get real. I am not afraid to die, but I will put up a fight for others and their well being. AND MOST IMPORTANT, my children. 
Thanks for this info.
Quoting Patrap:
Related:Military| Defense| World War II
Military & Defense
Sailors sue Japanese company over Fukushima radiation


SAN DIEGO Eight U.S. sailors who were aboard the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan off the Japanese coast during the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year have sued the company that owns the power plant, claiming they were harmed by radiation exposure.

The lawsuit, filed last week in San Diego federal court, accuses Tokyo Electric Power Co., or Tepco, with covering up how much radiation was being released during and after the March 11, 2011, disaster.

The U.S. government unwittingly sent the San Diego-based Ronald Reagan into dangerous levels of radiation as a result, states the lawsuit, filed Dec. 21 by Encinitas attorney Paul C. Garner.

The ship assisted with American humanitarian operations in the region after the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, killing thousands. The Fukushima nuclear power plant failed after the tsunami knocked out power to reactor pumps, causing a meltdown and release of radiation.

In addition to the Reagan, the United States sent the San Diego-based destroyer Preble and the cruiser Chancellorsville to help with relief operations off Honshu, Japan.


The lawsuit seeks $40 million from Tepco for each of the eight sailors, and the same amount for a baby of one of them born seven months after the disaster. That amount includes $10 million in damages and $30 million in punitive damages per person. In addition, the suit seeks $100 million to provide medical care for all nine.

Six of the eight sailors were stationed on the Reagans flight deck, and one served as an air decontamination specialist, the lawsuit states. The eighth worked in the air department, which handles aircraft launches, landings and maintenance.

The sailors experienced great physical pain and mental anguish, require therapies such as chelation and bone marrow transplants, and have had their lives shortened, the lawsuit states. It accuses Tepco of negligence, fraud, and deceptive business practices, and other legal violations.

More specifically, symptoms include unremitting migraine headaches, difficulty in concentrating, weight loss, ulcers and rectal bleeding, Garner said.

Tepcos Washington, D.C., office did not respond to a request for comment Friday afternoon.

Two days after the disaster, the Navy said it had repositioned the Reagan after detecting low levels of contamination in the air and on 17 aircrew members who flew earthquake relief missions near the Fukushina plant.

The low-level radioactivity was easily removed from affected personnel by washing with soap and water,the U.S. Pacific Fleet said in a statement about that incidents were subsequently surveyed, and no further contamination was detected.

The statement said the maximum potential radiation dose personnel were exposed to was less than the radiation exposure received from about one month of exposure to natural background radiation from sources such as rocks, soil, and the sun.

Calls to the Navy on Friday afternoon and evening were not returned.

Garner said the U.S. government relied on information from Tepco and the Japanese government that it was safe to enter the area. That makes them liable for the damage.

They bring it upon themselves, basically, with the misinformation that they give out, Garner said.





Uploaded by USNavyVisualNews on Mar 13, 2011

PACIFIC OCEAN (March 13, 2011) U.S. Navy Sailors assigned to the Black Knights of Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 4 and Japanese relief workers load supplies aboard an SH-60 Sea Hawk helicopter to support earthquake and tsunami relief efforts near Sendai, Japan. The helicopter then flies along the coast before landing at Takihama, Japan where U.S. and Japanese forces work together to unload the helicopters. HS-4 is embarked aboard the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) off the coast of Japan rendering humanitarian assistance following an 8.9 magnitude earthquake and tsunami as part of Operation Tomodachi. (U.S. Navy video by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Armando Gonzalez/ Released)

Watching JB's FB page is like watching one long FOX show.


Words like Leftists AGW agenda's,and WUWT graphs, well..he only loses half, if not more of a available audience with his political jargon,well blended into his weather drivel.

No wonder he fell so far.

I mean really?

FB post about whose ahead of him in the weight room.

LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Watching JB's FB page is like watching one long FOX show.


Words like Leftists AGW agenda's,and WUWT graphs, well..he only loses half, if not more of a available audience with his political jargon,well blended into his weather drivel.

No wonder he fell so far.

I mean really?

FB post about whose ahead of him in the weight room.

LOL


I firmly believe that the heads at AccuWeather forced JB to quit as they began to foresee that his very public political meltdown on climate change truly affecting their scientific credentials and forecasting integrity. May JB continue to prove their fears to be correct and their actions justified.
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's not about CNN.

Personally, I can't stand the mainstream media, because the only things they ever report on are:

War
Terrorism
Stock market (fake economics)
Politics (fake legal system)
Crime

Well, they mention some other things some times, but generally it's more of the same.

Not only that, they're just bad at reporting what they do report on. They all lie and manipulate the facts for their own agenda, so it's really not even worth watching.

So there's reasons you shouldn't watch the mainstream media, I don't care if it's FOX, CNN, ABC, HLN, or MSNBC, all of them suck at their jobs.

Back to Fukushima:

In order to be a threat to the U.S. it would need to be like 300 to 1000 times worse than it actually is, which isn't even physically possible because there wasn't enough nuclear fuel material damaged to cause that big of a disaster.

Tokyo and other parts of Japan are getting it hard, but that's because they are right next to the disaster site.

Radiation doesn't systematically seek out humans.


You might want to read some of the past EME news stories.... sort of scary .... huge percentage of Fukushima kids with abnormal thyroids.... lots of nosebleeds ... etc etc. You'll see if you care to look. Some of these may well be hysterical (in the psychoanalytical sense of the term), ...but all...?

I say "if you care to look" not to be taunting or condescending.... there are a lot of ugly things going on in the world (and perhaps there always have been, and we just hear about them more these days with the web etc.) ... everyone has a point where they just feel overwhelmed by it all, and they just don't want to hear of yet another thing. At least 'for now'.

Just ignore the increased phosporesence of your watch dial when strolling down the tuna fish isle! :-D

JK! JK!
A nice graphical representation of radiation exposure levels, while we're on that subject.Link
Quoting Patrap:
Related:Military| Defense| World War II
Military & Defense
Sailors sue Japanese company over Fukushima radiation


SAN DIEGO Eight U.S. sailors who were aboard the aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan off the Japanese coast during the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year have sued the company that owns the power plant, claiming they were harmed by radiation exposure.

The lawsuit, filed last week in San Diego federal court, accuses Tokyo Electric Power Co., or Tepco, with covering up how much radiation was being released during and after the March 11, 2011, disaster.

The U.S. government unwittingly sent the San Diego-based Ronald Reagan into dangerous levels of radiation as a result, states the lawsuit, filed Dec. 21 by Encinitas attorney Paul C. Garner.

The ship assisted with American humanitarian operations in the region after the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, killing thousands. The Fukushima nuclear power plant failed after the tsunami knocked out power to reactor pumps, causing a meltdown and release of radiation.

In addition to the Reagan, the United States sent the San Diego-based destroyer Preble and the cruiser Chancellorsville to help with relief operations off Honshu, Japan.


The lawsuit seeks $40 million from Tepco for each of the eight sailors, and the same amount for a baby of one of them born seven months after the disaster. That amount includes $10 million in damages and $30 million in punitive damages per person. In addition, the suit seeks $100 million to provide medical care for all nine.

Six of the eight sailors were stationed on the Reagans flight deck, and one served as an air decontamination specialist, the lawsuit states. The eighth worked in the air department, which handles aircraft launches, landings and maintenance.

The sailors experienced great physical pain and mental anguish, require therapies such as chelation and bone marrow transplants, and have had their lives shortened, the lawsuit states. It accuses Tepco of negligence, fraud, and deceptive business practices, and other legal violations.

More specifically, symptoms include unremitting migraine headaches, difficulty in concentrating, weight loss, ulcers and rectal bleeding, Garner said.

Tepcos Washington, D.C., office did not respond to a request for comment Friday afternoon.

Two days after the disaster, the Navy said it had repositioned the Reagan after detecting low levels of contamination in the air and on 17 aircrew members who flew earthquake relief missions near the Fukushina plant.

The low-level radioactivity was easily removed from affected personnel by washing with soap and water,the U.S. Pacific Fleet said in a statement about that incidents were subsequently surveyed, and no further contamination was detected.

The statement said the maximum potential radiation dose personnel were exposed to was less than the radiation exposure received from about one month of exposure to natural background radiation from sources such as rocks, soil, and the sun.

Calls to the Navy on Friday afternoon and evening were not returned.

Garner said the U.S. government relied on information from Tepco and the Japanese government that it was safe to enter the area. That makes them liable for the damage.

They bring it upon themselves, basically, with the misinformation that they give out, Garner said.





Uploaded by USNavyVisualNews on Mar 13, 2011

PACIFIC OCEAN (March 13, 2011) U.S. Navy Sailors assigned to the Black Knights of Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 4 and Japanese relief workers load supplies aboard an SH-60 Sea Hawk helicopter to support earthquake and tsunami relief efforts near Sendai, Japan. The helicopter then flies along the coast before landing at Takihama, Japan where U.S. and Japanese forces work together to unload the helicopters. HS-4 is embarked aboard the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) off the coast of Japan rendering humanitarian assistance following an 8.9 magnitude earthquake and tsunami as part of Operation Tomodachi. (U.S. Navy video by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Armando Gonzalez/ Released)



Japan specifically asked the U.S. not to get involved.

This is akin to someone trespassing on your land, and then suing you when they get hurt.

If they are going to sue anyone, the should sue the U.S. government for putting them in harm's way unnecessarily, since the Japanese government asked the U.S. NOT to interfere at that time.

What's with the other comment about misinformation?

Our own government, especially individual Senators and Representatives, deliberately lies to the American people all the time, while in office, while speaking in an official government role and/or in a campaigning role.
Looks like this next system coming through the Plains will bring some more drought relief. We really need it out here in Oklahoma.

If enough rain and snow happens over the winter and puts a decent dent in the drought, I would look for a much more active severe weather season.

The more moisture we have at the surface, the less moisture will mix out into the upper levels, weakening the drylines. Sharper drylines produce more significant severe storms.

I am based out of Norman, Oklahoma (about two blocks from the Storm Prediction Center), and I am positioning myself for what should be my most successful chase season yet. (although, 19 tornadoes this year, including a Christmas tornado, isn't too shabby)

I will be live streaming video on my chases, and I always welcome anyone to stop by and chat as I chase.

You can check it out at www.StormIntercept.com


I have been tweaking with the site over the past week, and it looks to be coming along quite nicely. I will also have a video chat feature ready for chase season, so I can chat with y'all about the chase plans and forecasts the night before the chase!


Quoting RTSplayer:

Japan specifically asked the U.S. not to get involved.

This is akin to someone trespassing on your land, and then suing you when they get hurt.

If they are going to sue anyone, the should sue the U.S. government for putting them in harm's way unnecessarily, since the Japanese government asked the U.S. NOT to interfere at that time.

What's with the other comment about misinformation?

Our own government, especially individual Senators and Representatives, deliberately lies to the American people all the time, while in office, while speaking in an official government role and/or in a campaigning role.
OK: PROOF.... no involvement, where is it?
Quoting Forsaken:
A nice graphical representation of radiation exposure levels, while we're on that subject.Link




That's fun, in its comic book form ... the website offering that up seems a bit questionable, and they don't site their sources correctly. Further, I would be strongly inclined to question the credibility of anything that came out of the State of Idaho's idea of what's okay. Probably true of all states, but seemingly more so of these western states is a capacious deference to slants of view that favor business and companies.

If you care for a thorough example, see the book Willful Blindness Link

It's a great read altogether, though discomfitting. Among the many topics she tackles is the huge asbestos mining scandal in Libby Montana. Decades back, the company, area doctors, and state officials ALL KNEW that they were slowing killing workers. But mum was indeed the word: Bi'dness was bi'dness.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Japan specifically asked the U.S. not to get involved.

This is akin to someone trespassing on your land, and then suing you when they get hurt.

If they are going to sue anyone, the should sue the U.S. government for putting them in harm's way unnecessarily, since the Japanese government asked the U.S. NOT to interfere at that time.

What's with the other comment about misinformation?

Our own government, especially individual Senators and Representatives, deliberately lies to the American people all the time, while in office, while speaking in an official role and/or in a campaigning role.


Hey RTS..
Do me a fav and source that Japanese requesting no US involvement/call for help please..
Pat sourced his post and that gives his credibility..
I'm not being a rear-end..
I (speaking for myself here)would like it better when folks post a re-tort that sourcing means alot
Not saying anything bad..your a great blogger.. :)
Hey there RTSplayer... keep up the good work of bringing news to the forefront. Epic that you have your say but give us all thoughts. Have a great evening. AND to everyone else... great pot of pea soup with a REAL HAM HOCK for a cold winters night. YUM!!!!
Uploaded by pjsrekciw on Mar 13, 2011

11 people injured even though they predicted this would happen ! They say this is the same kind of explosion as in reactor No.1 2days ago(on the left side @1:40 )although this time its much bigger.
They also report it blew up the reactor building but not strong enough to destroy reactor vessel inside and reactor itself is secured.


Cross section of the Greensburg tornado:



Radar:



I miss Spring so bad. Hurry up January and February!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Cross section of the Greensburg tornado:



Radar:



I miss Spring so bad. Hurry up January and February!


I went through Greensburg a couple times this year while chasing, most noticeably on April 14th, while chasing a tornadic cell, as a wall cloud passed over the town. It was a little nerve-racking
Maybe google MOX fuel rods and spent fuel pools,


That is the long term problem other than the containment vessels.




Spent Fuel Pools

Spent fuel pools (SFP) are storage pools for spent fuel from nuclear reactors. They are typically 40 or more feet (12 m) deep, with the bottom 14 feet (4.3 m) equipped with storage racks designed to hold fuel assemblies removed from the reactor. A reactor's pool is specially designed for the reactor in which the fuel was used and situated at the reactor site. In many countries, the fuel assemblies, after being in the reactor for 3 to 6 years, are stored underwater for 10 to 20 years before being sent for reprocessing or dry cask storage. The water cools the fuel and provides shielding from radiation.
While only about 8 feet (2.4 m) of water is needed to keep radiation levels below acceptable levels, the extra depth provides a safety margin and allows fuel assemblies to be manipulated without special shielding to protect the operators.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission estimates that many of the nuclear power plants in the United States will be out of room in their spent fuel pools by 2015, most likely requiring the use of temporary storage of some kind.[1]
Contents [hide]
1 Operation
2 Other possible configurations
3 Risks
4 See also
5 References
6 External links
[edit]Operation



Spent fuel pool
About a quarter to a third of the total fuel load of a reactor is removed from the core every 12 to 18 months and replaced with fresh fuel. Spent fuel rods generate intense heat and dangerous radiation that must be contained. Fuel is moved from the reactor and manipulated in the pool generally by automated handling systems, although some manual systems are still in use. The fuel bundles fresh from the core are normally segregated for several months for initial cooling before being sorted in to other parts of the pool to wait for final disposal. Metal racks keep the fuel in safe positions to avoid the possibility of a "criticality" — a nuclear chain reaction occurring. Water quality is tightly controlled to prevent the fuel or its cladding from degrading. Current regulations in the United States permit re-arranging of the spent rods so that maximum efficiency of storage can be achieved.[2]


Worker examines a pond for storing spent fuel rods at the Leningrad nuclear power plant in Sosnovy Bor.
The maximum temperature of the spent fuel bundles decreases significantly between 2 and 4 years, and less from 4 to 6 years. The fuel pool water is continuously cooled to remove the heat produced by the spent fuel assemblies. Pumps circulate water from the spent fuel pool to heat exchangers, then back to the spent fuel pool. The water temperature in normal operating conditions is held below 50°C (120°F)[1]. Radiolysis, the dissociation of molecules by radiation, is of particular concern in wet storage, as water may be split by residual radiation and hydrogen gas may accumulate increasing the risk of explosions. For this reason the air in the room of the pools, as well as the water, must be continually monitored and treated.
[edit]Other possible configurations

Rather than manage the pool's inventory to minimize the possibility of continued fission activity, the Chinese are building a 200 MWt nuclear reactor to run on used fuel from nuclear power stations to generate process heat for district heating and desalination. Essentially an SFP operated as a deep pool-type reactor; it will operate at atmospheric pressure, which will reduce the engineering requirements for safety.[3]
Other research envisions a similar low-power reactor using spent fuel where instead of limiting the production of hydrogen by radiolysis, it is encouraged by the addition of catalysts and ion scavengers to the cooling water. This hydrogen would then be removed to use as fuel.[4]
[edit]Risks

If there is a prolonged interruption of cooling due to emergency situations, the water in the spent fuel pools may boil off, resulting in large amounts of radioactive elements being released into the atmosphere.[5]
In the magnitude 9 earthquake which struck the Fukushima nuclear plants in March 2011, one of the spent fuel pools lost its roof and was reported to be emitting steam. According to The Nation, "Spent fuel pools at Fukushima are not equipped with backup water-circulation systems or backup generators for the water-circulation system they do have."[6] Later, there was some disagreement among sources as to whether the pool had boiled dry.[7][8][9]
TEPCO, the plant owner, announced that if the rods were exposed, there was a small chance they would reach criticality, setting off a nuclear chain reaction (not an explosion).[10] According to nuclear plant safety specialists, the chances of criticality in a spent fuel pool are very small, usually avoided by the dispersal of the fuel assemblies, inclusion of a neutron absorber in the storage racks and overall by the fact that the spent fuel has a too low enrichment level to self-sustain a fission reaction. They also state that if the water covering the spent fuel evaporates, there is no element to moderate the chain reaction.[11][12][13] On April 1, 2011, United States Energy Secretary Steven Chu said that after efforts by workers to pour water on the Fukushima pools, these were "now under control."[14]
Spent fuel pools lack the "4-ft.-thick (1.2 m) concrete cocoons" of operating reactors but are "housed in more conventional buildings that are conceivably more susceptible to aircraft strikes or explosives".[15]
According to Dr. Kevin Crowley of the Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board, "successful terrorist attacks on spent fuel pools, though difficult, are possible.

If an attack leads to a propagating zirconium cladding fire, it could result in the release of large amounts of radioactive material."[16] The Nuclear Regulatory Commission after the September 11, 2001 attacks required American nuclear plants "to protect with high assurance" against specific threats involving certain numbers and capabilities of assailants.


Plants were also required to "enhance the number of security officers" and to improve "access controls to the facilities".[17]
In 1997, the Brookhaven National Laboratory estimated that a "massive calamity at one spent-fuel pool could ultimately lead to 138,000 deaths and contaminate 2,000 sq. mi. (5,200 sq km) of land".
The Toxic Fuel Inside Japan's Nuclear Plant
Mar 15, 2011 7:05 PM EDT


Several of Fukushima Daiichi's reactors are spewing radioactive material, but just one contains the even more toxic MOX fuel. Eve Conant reports on the controversial mixture of uranium and plutonium—and the likelihood of its dispersal into the air.
10

inShare
0

Several of Fukushima Daiichi's reactors are spewing radioactive material, but just one contains the even more toxic MOX fuel. Eve Conant reports on the controversial mixture of uranium and plutonium—and the likelihood of its dispersal into the air. Plus, full coverage of Japan's nuclear crisis.

At least three reactors at Japan’s beleaguered Fukushima Daiichi plant appear to be releasing some radioactive material. But it is reactor No. 3 that, unlike the others, recently began using a special kind of mixed fuel that some scientists argue could be radically more toxic to human health if released into the atmosphere.


An aerial view shows the quake-damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant in the Japanese town of Futaba, Fukushima prefecture on March 12, 2011. Credit: Jiji Press / Getty Images

Japanese officials said Wednesday that smoke had been seen around the No. 3 reactor, that it may have ruptured and that the reactor was a “priority” without going into detail. High radiation levels also prevented a helicopter mission to dump water on the reactor to cool its fuel rods.

The Daily Beast spoke with half a dozen nuclear scientists about the peculiarities of MOX fuel, a mixture of uranium and plutonium—reprocessed from spent uranium and sometimes from the disposal of weapons-grade plutonium. Unlike uranium, plutonium is not naturally occurring,, and it was Berkeley scientists in the 1940s who figured out how to create it in a lab.

The bad news about plutonium: Its potential harmful effects, if absorbed by humans, are exponentially greater than that of most other elements used in nuclear processing.

The better news is that it is extremely hard to disperse.

MOX is a controversial and rarely used fuel, except in France and a handful of other countries, usually because of proliferation concerns. While some plans to fabricate MOX from weapons-grade plutonium are under way in South Carolina, the U.S. largely decided during the Ford and Carter administrations to abandon reprocessing and plutonium-based civilian nuclear energy.

The Fukushima Daiichi plant began using the fuel only in September, and its presence has been little more than a footnote in the unfolding drama in Japan. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Greg Jaczko addressed MOX at a briefing Monday, saying: “We are providing assistance to the Japanese where they request our assistance. And at this time, they have not asked for any specific information with regard to the MOX fuel.”

But some American scientists are stressing concern.

“It could change the nature of what could happen if it’s released,” said Paul Carroll. “The bottom line is that if you have an uncontrolled accident and release, then MOX fuel will raise your health and safety risks.”

“I wouldn’t call it a ‘game changer,’” said Paul Carroll, who has worked on nuclear weapons production and waste management issues for nearly 20 years in Congress, the Energy Department, and now at Ploughshares Fund, a nonproliferation organization in San Francisco. “But it could change the nature of what could happen if it’s released. The bottom line is that if you have an uncontrolled accident and release, then MOX fuel will raise your health and safety risks.”

Ed Lyman, senior staff scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists in Washington, echoed others who have calculated that some 6 percent of the fuel in Reactor No. 3 could be MOX. This, he wrote on his blog, “generally increases the consequences of severe accidents in which large amounts of radioactive gas and aerosol are released” because it “contains greater amounts of plutonium and other actinides, such as americium and curium, which have high radio-toxicities.” Lyman estimated that long-term cancer rates resulting from an accident with a reactor filled with just 6 percent MOX could increase by at least 10 percent if a major meltdown were to occur.

But Ray Guilmette of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements said that what causes damage to human health is not necessarily plutonium or uranium, but the fission materials that are most likely to escape during a meltdown, such as iodine and cesium.

(He explained that iodine tablets are being issued in Japan because if the thyroid is already “loaded up” with stable iodine it won’t absorb radioactive iodine, which gets excreted in urine.) Plutonium is a much smaller threat: If it were to melt, he said he expects it would become a sludge-like substance that wouldn’t be released into the environment. But if it were absorbed in the body, “it is thousands of times more radioactive than uranium,” he said.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Chicago's record will not last too much longer. Low to mid-20s are expected to make their way into the city by Tuesday.



It'll last a little longer, as HPC keeps anything even remotely measurable away for the next 7 days. Been a lame winter here, as snows have missed north and south all year to date....

Quoting ILwthrfan:


It'll last a little longer, as HPC keeps anything even remotely measurable away for the next 7 days. Been a lame winter here, as snows have missed north and south all year to date....



The record that was being referenced was the number of days without a high below freezing, which WILL end this week
Quoting pcola57:


Hey RTS..
Do me a fav and source that Japanese requesting no US involvement/call for help please..
Pat sourced his post and that gives his credibility..
I'm not being a rear-end..
I (speaking for myself here)would like it better when folks post a re-tort that sourcing means alot
Not saying anything bad..your a great blogger.. :)


Finding an exact source on that is going to be nearly impossible, because they changed their tune a few days later.

Whenever this originally happened I knew it was a meltdown from the moment it happened, which was shocking to me that even the U.S. government officials and the U.S. experts were split on whether they thought it was an actual meltdown or not.

For example, a "Hydrogen Explosion" could not happen unless the water molecules either in the reactor or in the containment vessel were first split, and then the hydrogen escaped the vessel. However, the hydrogen couldn't escape the vessel unless the vessel was already destroyed, or unless the hydrogen explosion itself destroyed the vessel. Either way, a meltdown had to be in progress afterwards, if it wasn't already in progress before the explosion, because the containment vessel is stronger than the reactor vessel. Any explosion strong enough to destroy the containment vessel and blow the roof clean off the building would also easily breach or destroy the reactor, which I said from the beginning, and was right.


So the truth is our own government and our own nuclear experts, in several cases, lied or otherwise withheld obvious facts from the general public on SEVERAL occasions on the world news.

The Japanese did not formally ask for help until the 13th, and as of the 13th their own government wasn't lying to anyone any more than the U.S. government and U.S. experts were lying.

There were several experts on CNN and other news agencies warning that it was in fact melting down, but the official U.S. government position was that it wasn't melting down, and most of the "experts" were saying it wasn't melting down.

then a few days later it was revealed that the Japanese were pumping sea water in the reactor, and finally some of the experts were like, "Well if they're pumping sea water then this reactor is done," and Michio Kaku at about that time said they should have concreted the reactors and sank them.


Any exposure to U.S. troops on board ships was just as much the U.S. government's fault for being idiots or liars, take your pick. Hilary Clinton didn't even know how nuclear plants worked. She thought nuclear coolant was something we had to ship to the Japanese.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
And while on the topic of cold and snow, the GFS and ECMWF models show significant stratospheric warming across the North Pole and Canada towards the middle of January. With the NAO expected to fall rapidly at that time, and with the AO expected to rise rapidly at that time, it's about to get very cold for many across the United States.
I'm not seeing it on the ECMWF. ECMWF runs I've seen show some strat warming but they shoot the cold into the North Atlantic, between Greenland and Europe.
Well, you shouldn't watch Justin Bieber's facebook page.
That's the best advice I can give.


Quoting Patrap:
Watching JB's FB page is like watching one long FOX show.


Words like Leftists AGW agenda's,and WUWT graphs, well..he only loses half, if not more of a available audience with his political jargon,well blended into his weather drivel.

No wonder he fell so far.

I mean really?

FB post about whose ahead of him in the weight room.

LOL
I read the blog today oh boy
About a muscleman who made the news
And though the news was rather sad
Well I just had to laugh
I saw His photograph

He lost his mind on a FB page
He didn't notice that the politics had changed
A crowd of bloggers stood and stared
They'd seen his face before
Nobody was really sure
If he was from the House of Accuweather
Quoting Patrap:
Uploaded by pjsrekciw on Mar 13, 2011

11 people injured even though they predicted this would happen ! They say this is the same kind of explosion as in reactor No.1 2days ago(on the left side @1:40 )although this time its much bigger.
They also report it blew up the reactor building but not strong enough to destroy reactor vessel inside and reactor itself is secured.





Correct.

But our own supposed experts were mostly agreeing with the Japanese experts, at least publicly, with the exception of a few outlying cases.

I said all along that they were melted down, but people all had some excuse to agree with the lies (or incompetence) of the U.S. government and other U.S. experts.


I said that then. the explosions there, even the little one, are far larger than the largest bombs we dropped in Iraq during operation "Shock and Awe". Given the scale of the buildings, the roofs and probably the top half of the containment vessels in some cases, were blown several hundred feet in the air, as you can see on the video, before they lost momentum and started to fall back out of the sky.


The point I was originally making is that the radiation is not as big a threat in the U.S. as people are trying to make it out to be.

It's collecting in high concentrations in Tokyo and in lakes and river sediment in Japan simply because of proximity and in some cases funneling effects from water runoff. That's to be expected.


Politicians are uneducated. They got their degrees in political science, which means they have about a high school education. You can't expect a government spokes person or senator to know what nuclear power is. Well, actually you can expect them, you'll just be disappointed.
This does tend to be a disaster blog, but the posts on Fukushima seem a bit amped and really not suitable.

You might try http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=480 200&page=864 which seems more down to earth.
Quoting Patrap:
I read the blog today oh boy
About a muscleman who made the news
And though the news was rather sad
Well I just had to laugh
I saw His photograph

He lost his mind on a FB page
He didn't notice that the politics had changed
A crowd of bloggers stood and stared
They'd seen his face before
Nobody was really sure
If he was from the House of Accuweather


lol wut?
Quoting RTSplayer:


You don't understand how pathetic 3% above natural background is.

It's so insignificant that it doesn't matter.

You'd have to eat tons of the stuff before it equaled one chest X-ray.

The average American gets 3 milli sievert per year from medical imaging.

3% above background in tuna would mean that if you replaced all food you eat in a year with the contaminated tuna and ate only contaminated tuna, you would be exposed to about 0.0087 milli sievert of extra radiation above background, which is 345 times less than what the average American gets from medical X-Rays in a year, or about 717 times less than the total amount of radiation the average American is exposed to in a year already.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Background_radiation #Medical

Got any more paranoid ideas?


I really don't think insulting Zeph added much to the quality of your post.

I guess the important thing to know would be what kind of contamination it was, and what its properties are in human flesh. Some isotopes have affinity to fat, or bone, or particular organs and some simply stay put when they get there so they accumulate. Even small amounts over time can add up, plus, some folks are susceptible to cancers from even very low doses, as are forming fetuses. "You" might think it is okay, but having served aboard a nuclear powered fast attack submarine, I think I'll err on the side of caution for awhile and watch how it goes down.

Quoting MontanaZephyr:




Further, I would be strongly inclined to question the credibility of anything that came out of the State of Idaho's idea of what's okay. .


They might know more than you think :)

From the early 1950s to the mid-1990s, Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) in Idaho trained nearly 40,000 Navy personnel in surface and submarine nuclear power plant operations with three nuclear propulsion prototypes — A1W, S1W, and S5G.[10]

Quoting snotly:
Well, you shouldn't watch Justin Bieber's facebook page.
That's the best advice I can give.





I thought he was talkin' bout Joe Biden.
Whats up with the hate for JB Pat?
Why are you so fixated?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Whats up with the hate for JB Pat?
Why are you so fixated?
I don't know that he's "fixated" as much as he's simply responding to those who repeatedly repost here JB's off-the-wall and wildly inaccurate forecasts as though they carry some extra weight or gravitas.

And--again--since when is ridiculing a ridiculous public figure considered "hate"?
Quoting indianrivguy:


They might know more than you think :)

From the early 1950s to the mid-1990s, Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) in Idaho trained nearly 40,000 Navy personnel in surface and submarine nuclear power plant operations with three nuclear propulsion prototypes — A1W, S1W, and S5G.[10]



I probably failed to be clear enough about the point I was making: Governments and businesses routinely collude to downplay the negative side of doings that they feel are important. It isn't that they don't know the facts, but rather, they misrepresent them or abandoned them entirely.

It's standard operating procedure. It probably always WAS that way, and in some cases, maybe it is best done that way. Sometimes it's a well thought out thing... other times, not so much, or laid out with vicious agenda.

Anyone in the corporate or government world knows this. Lots of you are still undergrads, so haven't yet been exposed to this reality. At the very least, when you actually start 'making a living' and have to deal with 'the real world', you discover quickly that, if you want a seat at the table, there are lots of things you close your eyes to, lots of things you don't talk about.
There are now 152 days until the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season...
I guess I should of asked you that question Nea..



I'll ask this one instead. Would you consider yourself a better forecaster than him?
Here, this is getting far afield from the sorts of stuff I like to see on this blog... great weather pix and info... but it is an off day weatherwise, and there seems to be a real lack of awareness about some things that at least some of the folks here might like to know about.

That said, I just came across (yet another!) site that indicates this in its own way, easily consumable and from a variety of sources:


Top Journalists Expose Major Mass Media Cover-ups

Link
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Whats up with the hate for JB Pat?
Why are you so fixated?

Hmmmm, you give an ad hominem attack in response to an ad hominem attack.

"An ad hominem (Latin for "to the man"), short for argumentum ad hominem, is an argument made personally against an opponent instead of against their argument. Ad hominem reasoning is normally described as an informal fallacy, more precisely an irrelevance."

Your comment might be viewed as a subtle use of Argument from fallacy. Suppose Pat is fixated or hates as you say. It does not mean Pat is wrong.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I guess I should of asked you that question Nea..



I'll ask this one instead. Would you consider yourself a better forecaster than him?
Certainly. Heck, I'd consider this a better forecaster than him:

M8B

;-)

Seriously, though, as I said last night, I don't go around touting myself as Mankind's Gift To Meteorology, so the question you asked is moot, don't you think?
While people are arguing...meanwhile today at Reagan national airport today a gust of 49mph was recorded.Dulles recorded 43 and BWI recorded 46mph.Wind chills were in the 20's today.
Seriously, though, as I said last night, I don't go around touting myself as Mankind's Gift To Meteorology, so the question you asked is moot, don't you think


JB doesn't do that.
You do act like you're the final say on all things here tho.
Here: To absolve myself from all this non-weather related posting, here is a site with some great wx pix: Link

Clicking on the pix on the front page gets you to a whole series for that year. Some nice images there!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I guess I should of asked you that question Nea..



I'll ask this one instead. Would you consider yourself a better forecaster than him?

Another ad hominem. As the Wikipedia article notes, ad hominem attacks are irrelevant to the debate.

If you want to get Pat's response, you should WU mail him. Public comments get responses from the public.
Bappit.

It takes guts to put out long-range forecasts all the time. It takes no guts to bash from behind a comp.
JB is still making a living doing what he does in the energy sector. If there is no value in his product, the marketplace will vote with its dollars and he'll be off the scene. Time will tell.
Looks like another cold week is in store.This is very good as the first half of Dec was 7 degrees above average.Yikes!.Seems nature balanced it's self out.Those pesky 60+ degree days are a distant memory.



Can you all find something better else to do besides argue about J.B all day long?.Its getting tiresome now...
I have no beef with JB, we chat a lot as we ribb each other on FB and in jest overall.

He knows I have a issue with him injectin ideology into his posts.



I gave him a shout out earlier here,and inserted his image for all to see.

Relax with a fresca dougie.


Happy New Years too,


695. Patrap 1:05 PM CST on December 30, 2012


Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
Major Stratwarm to force tropospheric cooling over N America, setting stage for bitter arctic attack mid/late Jan pic.twitter.com/EU0m5Q0n





Made it up to 37 degrees this afternoon under partly cloudy skies ..

Current conditions are : temp 32 degrees with the wind from the south at 10 mph, with the feel like temp of 20 degrees ..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There are now 152 days until the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season...


You may want to have this good countdown that has every minute and second being counted.

Link
816. beell
Only idiots engage in ad hominem attacks.
rabble rabble rabble.

my post has more intellectual thought than yours!

No! Mine does!

No!


make. it. stop.
Quoting tornadodude:
rabble rabble rabble.

my post has more intellectual thought than yours!

No! Mine does!

No!


make. it. stop.
Even adults can Engage in childish activities.You see our politicians for example..They booed the house speaker.
No matter how much any adult tries to deny it they are still a kid at heart(and mind).
Did I go back in time??
Why is the blog talking about Fukushima, nuclear radiation? Musta miss something.

_________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _

Cyclone Freda to weaken on New Caledonia approach





Fiji weather forecasters say New Caledonia could begin to feel the effects of Tropical Cyclone Freda in the next 72 hours.

The tropical cyclone hit the most southern parts of Solomon Islands over the weekend.

It's now a Category 4 storm and is located north west of Noumea, moving south-south-east at 6 knots.

Rajneel Prasad from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre at the Fiji Met Service has told Radio Australia's Freda will close in with New Caledonia in the next three days.

"The next 72 hours it is staying over the sea, even though the centre is quite far from land, what people can expect is near gale force winds, heavy rain with this cyclone coming near to New Caledonia," he said.

"The tropical cyclone could generate a storm surge as it moves south...[which] could be disruptive to low-lying areas, especially to small islands in New Caledonia."

Mr Prasad says the storm is expected to weaken as it approaches New Caledonia.

"We're going for Category 4 for the next 24 hours - thereafter it becomes Category 3, and in the next 72 hours we expect it to become a Category 2, so it is starting to gradually weaken," he said.

"But we should not underestimate its intensity and strength at the moment."

On Saturday Freda moved across the southern Solomons, bringing heavy rains and winds up to 130 kilometres an hour.

Witnesses say the cyclone tore roofs off houses and flattened trees.

The director of the National Disaster Management Office, Loti Yates, says thousands of people from riverside villages moved to higher ground.

There were no reports of injury.


© ABC 2012

Only idiots engage in ad hominem attacks.


That sounds like a sly one right there.
Hmmmm.
Oh there you are aussie.Are you sending that 10,000 dollars in the mail?.I'm waiting for it :).
I have no beef with JB, we chat a lot as we ribb each other on FB and in jest overall.

He knows I have a issue with him injectin ideology into his posts.




Fair enough. But don't you inject Ideolgy into yours as well?


I know I do.


7 days of heat forecast

Perth is set to swelter through a heatwave until at least the middle of this week.

The Weather Bureau is predicting a top of 41 degrees today and tomorrow.

Noel Puzey from the bureau says the hot weather will continue, with the heat wave expected to last a total of seven days.

"The cooler change will start to develop through Wednesday but until then temps are 39 or above, so still a hot spate of weather there," he said.

"It's an unusually long period of hot conditions above 35 but it's not at all unusual for Perth to have a heatwave through the Summer months.

"Normally we'd get a change for a cooler day somewhere in between there so a run of nine days in unusual but it's not a record, the most has been 10."

© ABC 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
While people are arguing...meanwhile today at Reagan national airport today a gust of 49mph was recorded.Dulles recorded 43 and BWI recorded 46mph.Wind chills were in the 20's today.


Been gusting in the 50's here all day too, surely some of these have been at least in the 60's too. A bit warmer here than that though, just above 40' anyway. Been like this for days now, and aside from a few small reprieves, has been predominantly going for weeks....typical N Wales weather LOL. Was going to go get shop done today..woke up 11am...heard nothing but wind and rain...and went back to sleep, sod it! LOL Supposed to clear in the late afternoon tomorrow, so will try again then. Sunday's are hard to get out and shop here anyway. If things are actually open on a Sunday, they close by 4pm. Even the 24 hour grocery stores close by midnight Saturday night, and will only be open 10-4 or so on Sundays. Being I work until 1am on sat night, I don't get out early on a Sunday! NYE, things will be closing early too. But with the promise of calmer weather, will go for it! Problem may be, Saturday on the way to work, the river down in the valley was VERY high. So after today, not sure if some roads may be out...so could be a short trip out! LOL

So, all the argueing about JB....well, I know many prefer Bells or JD...everyone has a preference I suppose :P
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh there you are aussie.Are you sending that 10,000 dollars in the mail?.I'm waiting for it :).

What you talkin about Willis (Washi). lol

Our local mets have looked in the long range.They believe their will be a slight warm up in January before turning cold again in late Jan-Feb...Sounds similar to 2010...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even adults can Engage in childish activities.You see our politicians for example..They booed the house speaker.
No matter how much any adult tries to deny it they are still a kid at heart(and mind).


I don't try to deny it at all :P I'm just a fun kid still...not a nasty one! Even now...grappling with moving house...do I try and find a place near the good beaches, for my photography and boogieboarding....or do I head by the coastal resorts...some opp for seascapes, but, where there's funfairs and arcades! haha The choice is very hard!
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Been gusting in the 50's here all day too, surely some of these have been at least in the 60's too. A bit warmer here than that though, just above 40' anyway. Been like this for days now, and aside from a few small reprieves, has been predominantly going for weeks....typical N Wales weather LOL. Was going to go get shop done today..woke up 11am...heard nothing but wind and rain...and went back to sleep, sod it! LOL Supposed to clear in the late afternoon tomorrow, so will try again then. Sunday's are hard to get out and shop here anyway. If things are actually open on a Sunday, they close by 4pm. Even the 24 hour grocery stores close by midnight Saturday night, and will only be open 10-4 or so on Sundays. Being I work until 1am on sat night, I don't get out early on a Sunday! NYE, things will be closing early too. But with the promise of calmer weather, will go for it! Problem may be, Saturday on the way to work, the river down in the valley was VERY high. So after today, not sure if some roads may be out...so could be a short trip out! LOL

So, all the argueing about JB....well, I know many prefer Bells or JD...everyone has a preference I suppose :P
Actually it's been pretty windy these last few weeks.I guess because of the pattern change or so.It has also been average to below average.But this lover of winter ain't complaining :).This is what I've been waiting for for two years.

Remember Aussie about the English lessons a U.D.C?.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Certainly. Heck, I'd consider this a better forecaster than him:

M8B

;-)

Seriously, though, as I said last night, I don't go around touting myself as Mankind's Gift To Meteorology, so the question you asked is moot, don't you think?



Hahahaha

I don't know what he's like in anyway to be fair and have never seen him. But, that's the kind you get in tv. The people most full of themselves are usually the ones who'll get successful in the public eye (and often in general)....even moreso than people with real great talent. As a big ego, is far harder to destroy than a talent without the big ego. Goes for politicians too, successful business people. And why many get very possessive of their fame or money. And why, a successful person, doesn't mean they're a good or nice person.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Actually it's been pretty windy these last few weeks.I guess because of the pattern change or so.It has also been average to below average.But this lover of winter ain't complaining :).This is what I've been waiting for for two years.

Remember Aussie about the English lessons a U.D.C?.


We still haven't had any sign of snow below the peaks :( and just rain...best has been slushy rain or the sub-zero 'dry' days we had, at least gave a wintry look! Didn't have anything last winter until the end of April!! But was much colder last winter thus far, just no snow. I so much prefer snow to a rainy 35'. Been in the 40's and 50's for all but the one week so far. But def LOTS of rain and wind! I read today that if the UK gets 2 more in or cm of rain before midnight tomorrow, it'll be the wettest year on record. No idea where or how those stats are made, but for this corner of the country, has def been extra wet for a few years!! I wish they'd start getting more snow, more often...so they can deal with it when it comes...everything will function and then we get the joy of snow activities and photos! LOL Maybe I should move to Scotland LOL I do prefer the Scottish accent to the Welsh accent! ;)
Madagascar could be dealing with a tropical threat in the next 10 days. This rather disorganized area of disturbed weather, invest 97S, is expected to strengthen rapidly in the next 3-4 days but parallel the Madagascar coast and stay far enough offshore not to cause significant impacts:



However, another low will begin organizing well to the east of 97S, and the models also forecast it to strengthen quite a bit. It should move SW, and the GFS brings it into Madagascar in about 9 days. Something to watch at least.
Cyclone Freda appears to be weakening:

Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Here: To absolve myself from all this non-weather related posting, here is a site with some great wx pix: Link

Clicking on the pix on the front page gets you to a whole series for that year. Some nice images there!


Consider yourself absolved MZ!!..LOL
That is a great site for some really unusual storms and formations..
Very Cool. :)
any chance of this southeastern storm wrapping up and pulling in more cold air to cause a little snow in N.C. next thursday?
we may see a vary early start too hurricane season has wind shear have been runing way be low norml so far


Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see a vary early start too hurricane season has wind shear have been runing way be low norml so far




OMG!...can someone answer my question about winter weather before we start talking about hurricanes since its winter and all...which was is there any chance that this southeastern system will wrap and pull in more cold air to bring some snow to N.C.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


OMG!...can someone answer my question about winter weather before we start talking about hurricanes since its winter and all...which was is there any chance that this southeastern system will wrap and pull in more cold air to bring some snow to N.C.


this coming thursday that is
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


OMG!...can someone answer my question about winter weather before we start talking about hurricanes since its winter and all...which was is there any chance that this southeastern system will wrap and pull in more cold air to bring some snow to N.C.



why do you want snow



how about a heat wave
Quoting Tazmanian:



why do you want snow



how about a heat wave


i dont really WANY it, just wondering if it could wrap in that cold air...its happened 2 times up in D.C. and New york this past week, so why cant it happen here....i-95 was suppost to see rain the 2 systems prior to the last one, but both times it got snow, and they didnt issue any advisories until the snow started falling, just wondering if that is a possble senario this coming thursday in N.C....and no i dont want a heat wave either, its winter anyway.
This buoy is located about 54 miles south of Nantucket, it really captures what happened as the Nor'easter bombed out last night.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA, CATEGORY FOUR (05F)
12:00 PM FST December 31 2012
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (940 hPa) located at 16.4S 161.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection around eye decreasing past 6 hours due to cloud top temperature warming. Eye cooling past 12 hours and becoming partially cloud filled but still discernible in visible. Strong upper divergence present to southeast of system. System lies in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. FREDA is being steered south by deep layer northerly mean wind flow. Sea surface temperatures are around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on LG surround yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.0, PT=5.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 17.4S 160.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.4S 160.6E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.3S 160.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20122013
4:00 AM RET December 31 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 11.1S 58.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds 35 knots up to 100 NM from the center, up to 250 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.6S 57.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 12.3S 56.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 15.3S 55.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.4S 55.0E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Very deep convection associated with cold cloud tops (-93C on N19 pass at 2152z) are occurring in the northwestern quadrant. Microwave imagery of that N19 pass show a 0.3 curved band associated. OSCAT data from 2036z support current intensity and still depict a singular wind structure with weak winds roughly within 1 degree from the center and strong winds within a building large ring...(wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

On the northern edge of a low to mid-level ridge, the system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 hours. This motion could be affected by a contradictory westerly to northwesterly steering flow generated by the near equatorial ridge located to the north east of the system resulting in a slow and irregular motion. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system (axed between 65e and 70e). Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday 05. NOGAPS and GFDN at 1200z now show again a southwards turn before 55E ...putting the spread by the time of the turn between 55E and 58E. It is worth noting that the ECMWF ensemble forecast system still show little spread through the whole forecast period ...giving a high degree of confidence in the official forecast.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear should gradually decrease today.Tomorrow, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south). The current intensity forecast is reduced in this package specially for the next two days: given the current broad nature of the wind field, intensification should stay gradual ... This is clearly suggested by dynamical guidance as ECMWF and ALADIN-REUNION. Beyond that time, the forecast intensity get close to the 1800z STIPS suite but i snot so aggressive (vmax at 85-90 knots shown). Thursday night, the northwesterly shear should increase over the system resulting in weakening. Friday and beyond, cool water and increasing shear should start the extratropical process.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.
Hey Everyone!

From the 00z run for the CMC 216 hours..the 12z doesnt go out to be 180 hours

Severe Ice Storm?



Quoting JupiterKen:
I see the Doc made WUWT again.
Link
Link

Here's a link to the info both sides used. If you read all the available data, you see the Palmer index says 60% of the contiguous US is in moderate to severe drought- and Dr Masters' provided map says 62%. I do not claim to be smarter than anyone else, but it seems to me they provided very similar data and Mr Watts wants to put a new spin on the findings.

if the link does not work, go to www.ncdc.nova.gov/soto/drought. I have trouble with links while on my tablet, I suspect it must be operator failure.


Snowfall through mid-day Wednesday (RPM Model)
Madagascar website

PERTURBATION TROPICALE No. 6
Name / Nom --
08° 9S 86° 1E
Estimated minimum central Pressure 1002 HPA
Maximum average wind (10 mn) 25 KT (45 KM/H)
Maximum sustained wind (1 mn) 30 KT (55 KM/H)
Gust maxi 35 KT (65 KM/H)
CI Number (Dvorak scale) CI 1.5


Cool start to the new year for most of the contiguous USA
849. beell
Quoting ncstorm:
Hey Everyone!

From the 00z run for the CMC 216 hours..the 12z doesnt go out to be 180 hours

Severe Ice Storm?



See ya an ice storm and raise ya a severe weather outbreak at 252 hrs!


18Z GFS 850mb


18Z GFS 500mb vort

Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see a vary early start too hurricane season has wind shear have been runing way be low norml so far




I want rain :)
Friends don't let friends argue about AGW!
Quoting CaribBoy:


I want rain :)



how about snow
Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see a vary early start too hurricane season has wind shear have been runing way be low norml so far




It's interesting that you say that, Taz.

I was sitting around listening to the "old timers" today and all the talk was around the fact that they don't like the fact that mango trees that shouldn't be bearing fruit are (including our own here at the house) and that there are other plants behaving in very bizarre ways. It will be interesting to see what happens this next season. We've been some lucky the last 10 years over here. It's only a matter of time before the next big one.....
857. beell
Nice write-up from NWS-Lubbock, TX of a notable dust storm on December 19th, 2012.

December Dust Storm
19 December 2012-NWS Lubbock, TX



Blowing dust across the South Plains Wendesday afternoon as seen from a plane flying overhead. Photo courtesy of Chris Manno.


Radar echoes during the late morning hours depicted dust plumes originating from points north of Roswell toward Clovis. These plumes can be seen across portions of the South Plains and extreme southern Texas panhandle in the following image of radar reflectivity just before 4 pm.


Imagery from the NWS webcam at the Science Spectrum from Tuesday and Wednesday.
Quoting beell:
Nice write-up from NWS-Lubbock, TX of a notable dust storm on December 19th, 2012.

December Dust Storm
19 December 2012-NWS Lubbock, TX



Blowing dust across the South Plains Wendesday afternoon as seen from a plane flying overhead. Photo courtesy of Chris Manno.


Radar echoes during the late morning hours depicted dust plumes originating from points north of Roswell toward Clovis. These plumes can be seen across portions of the South Plains and extreme southern Texas panhandle in the following image of radar reflectivity just before 4 pm.


Imagery from the NWS webcam at the Science Spectrum from Tuesday and Wednesday.


Lived there for 4yrs..
Been through a couple..
Worse than alot of other weather I've been through..
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


It's interesting that you say that, Taz.

I was sitting around listening to the "old timers" today and all the talk was around the fact that they don't like the fact that mango trees that shouldn't be bearing fruit are (including our own here at the house) and that there are other plants behaving in very bizarre ways. It will be interesting to see what happens this next season. We've been some lucky the last 10 years over here. It's only a matter of time before the next big one.....



yep
Quoting washingtonian115:
Actually it's been pretty windy these last few weeks.I guess because of the pattern change or so.It has also been average to below average.But this lover of winter ain't complaining :).This is what I've been waiting for for two years.

Remember Aussie about the English lessons a U.D.C?.

A lot of people on this blog need English lessons. I am not a millionaire, if I was I would donate money to much more needy than people that need English lessons. Sorry.

8hrs 8mins till 2013 and it's 30.5C, clear blue skies and a light easterly breeze.
Thousands of people are gathering around Sydney Harbour to watch the 2 fireworks shows (9pm and Midnight)

861. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see a vary early start too hurricane season has wind shear have been runing way be low norml so far



are you kidding ??
Quoting JRRP:

are you kidding ??



no am not kinding
Freda
Quoting Tazmanian:



no am not kinding

Hey Taz, how is El Nino/La Nina going?
Barge traffic stalls along drought-parched Mississippi River
Crews try to keep shipping channels open, but the Mississippi's dangerously low water levels already are causing kinks in the supply chain.
Some ships have to wait for dredging.
Eye has become obscured on visible imagery. Expect the weakening trend to begin as Freda will move generally southward and later southeastward into more hostile conditions. The system is also anticipated to affect New Caledonia in the next few days.

Quoting Civicane49:
Eye has become obscured on visible imagery. Expect the weakening trend to begin as Freda will move generally southward and later southeastward into more hostile conditions. The system is also anticipated to affect New Caledonia in the next few days.


I take it you didn't read comment 819.
Cyclone Freda can reach category 4 status tomorrow???
Quoting ces15hurricanes:
Cyclone Freda can reach category 4 status tomorrow???

On which scale? Freda is already a Cat 4 Cyclone on the BOM/Fiji Scale.

Quoting AussieStorm:

I take it you didn't read comment 819.


Yeah. I just missed that. The information on the cyclone's forecast in comment 819 is basically what I'm expecting on that cyclone.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20122013
10:00 AM RET December 31 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 10.9S 58.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds 35 knots up to 100 NM from the center, up to 250 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 350 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 11.6S 57.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 12.7S 56.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.2S 55.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.5S 54.8E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Infrared satellite picture depicts an important area of deep convection in the western semi-circle. microwave imagery SSMIS at 04.15z confirms the convective band west of the low level circulation center.

ASCAT data from 0600z support current intensity and still depict a singular wind structure with weak winds roughly within 1 degree from the center and strong winds far from the center (wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

The system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 24 hours on the northern edge of a low to mid troposphere ridge. Beyond, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system. Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday January 5th.

Lower level environmental conditions are favorable (very good lower levels convergence and favorable sea surface temperatures). The upper levels vertical wind shear may continue to fluctuate during the next 48 hours. Consequently, the deepening of this large size system should be laborious during the next 48 hours. Beyond, system should benefit of good conditions to intensify more sharply during 36 hours.

On and after j+4, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft and system should begin to track over cooler sea surface temperatures. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between j+4 and j+5.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:52 AM WST December 31 2012
=================================

"Mitchell" is near 27.7S 108.0E and moving south southwest. It is not expected to re-intensify.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA, CATEGORY FOUR (05F)
18:00 PM FST December 31 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda (950 hPa) located at 16.9S 161.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Eye cloud filled, thus no longer discernible in infrared/visible. Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center over past 6 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperatures are around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center LG surround yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southerly movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 17.9S 161.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.9S 161.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.5S 162.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)


Happy New Year everyone. Let's all make 2013 better than 2012. I know I will.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Happy New Year everyone. Let's all make 2013 better than 2012. I know I will.


HAPPY NEW YEAR AUSSIE!!!!
Quoting AussieStorm:


Happy New Year everyone. Let's all make 2013 better than 2012. I know I will.


Happy New Year to you too.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
18:00 PM FST December 31 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (1005 hPa) located near 22.2S 164.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor during past 24 hours. Convection persistent to the east of the partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies under a shortwave upper trough in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly moves it southwestward with a slight intensification.
Last day of the year and a local met observer told me we'd had 71" of rain at his station in the NW of England. The forty year average is 50". No month has been exceptionally wet, but every month since April has been sigificantly above the line. Clearly we are getting some of the USA share of precipitation. You are welcome to have it as long as you can arrange for redirection - we're getting webbed feet over here... And if you could arrange for a little snow, as it looks like there's none of that on the way either, that would be nice! Happy New Year.
Happy New Years Aussie, may this new year be your best EVER!
NEW YEAR 2013 COUNTDOWN
_____________________________________

2013 will knock on Kiritimati Is. first then westward from there across the world...
just 10 minutes away from it's arrival



pic updated every 2 to 3 hours or so...

...Darwin's countdown actually is 4:40...and Sydney 3:10

click picture for bigger size
Mornin' tr!
Christmas Island welcomes 2013 in 1 minute


Time left to Event in
Kiritimati
0 : 00 : 01 : 00
Day Hr Min Sec

They are the first ones. (As far as the sun rise goes)
Have a great day everyone, I am off to pick shrimp!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' tr!


hi happy new year's eve!...

just as I speak...the new year 2013 arrived on earth (Kiritimati Is) l...now expanding westward to New Zealand !!!

Very special day for me today
good morning Aussie and a Happy New Year to you!!...
Good Morning Folks..Back to normal temps for us this week..
Wow Texas..you folks be careful today...........
Ice Castle in Harbin, China



Harbin Weather at a Glance
Weather Station
Harbin (ZYHB)
Elevation
469 ft
Temperature
-18.4 F
Feels Like -29 F
Wind(mph)
4.5
NEW YEAR UPDATE
_________________________

Happy New Year New Zealand!!!!
Next one up: Sydney, Australia



click on image for larger view...

updates every 2 to 3 hours
Quoting nymore:
Ice Castle in Harbin, China

beautiful pic there
(deleted, revising post)
Happy New year IRG, Largo, Aussie, Nymore, Thmmx and all the rest.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Happy New year IRG, Largo, Aussie, Nymore, Thmmx and all the rest.


You to my good man
Good morning and happy New Year 2013 to all.
Just a quick weather update from the North Atlantic. We here in Reykjavík got hit by a storm recently that left enough snow and chunks of ice on the roads that it managed to half rip the underpanel off my car and I had to spend 45 minutes yesterday cutting off the remainder that was dragging along the ground. But the real weather story is up from Vestfirðir, which is still getting hit by the remainder of a blizzard that nailed them a few days ago with nearly hurricane-force sustained winds.

I have a friend in Bólungarvík (a town in Vestfirðir) who's been giving updates on Facebook, when service makes it possible. Power's been going in and out, as has hot water (hot water = home heating in Iceland). The emergency generators are reportedly almost out of oil. The roads out are all completely impassible. The town (along with many other towns and roads in the area) is under high avalanche threat (the last time I was there, I remember seeing where they were building avalanche barriers, and how they had to remove a number of homes, a part of the town, as it was considered too high risk).

Here's some pictures from the area:









The weather forecast is for the wind to finish subsiding today and for it to be clear tomorrow, before (lesser) snows return on Wednesday.

Here's why Bólungarvík (and many similar towns in Vestfirðir) are always at such a risk for avalanches:



There's mountains like that on the other sides, too, just not as close. I don't know whether they ever finished the avalanche barrier or how good of protection it was to provide. The construction was plagued with lots of trouble last year, rockslides and such.
Wow! Great post Karen!
Have a SAFE and Happy New Year!
29.5*F in Macon, Ga this morning, 96% humidity, no snow yet.
(comment deleted due to Wunderground bug)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Wow! Great post Karen!
Have a SAFE and Happy New Year!


Unlike in Vestfirðir, our weather here is looking pretty nice for New Years Eve (or should I say, "Old Year's Eve" (gamlárskváldið)), except for the snow ice that's around from the storm (in the parking lot I could probably push my car around without taking the brakes off if only I could find secure footing to do so, lol ;) ). Looking forward to the celebrations - here's New Years past, Iceland-style:






(The first picture is a "brenna", or big bonfire. They're a traditional part of the celebrations here, with dozens around town; one study last year pinned something like 80% of our annual dioxin emissions back to the brennur, lol, which I guess is good in that it means we don't have much in terms of emissions from other sources...)

I expect celebrations to be a lot more toned-down for those stuck in Vestfirðir, obviously. Hopefully they'll get the roads open today or tomorrow; I know they're working on it.

(Update: Where can one report a bug around here? If I hit the "modify comment" button on a post containing non-english characters, even if I don't make or save any changes, it messes up all of said characters in the post)
Quoting KarenRei:


Unlike in Vestfirir, our weather here is looking pretty nice for New Years Eve (or should I say, "Old Year's Eve" (gamlrskvldi)), except for the snow ice that's around from the storm (in the parking lot I could probably push my car around without taking the brakes off if only I could find secure footing to do so, lol ;) ). Looking forward to the celebrations - here's New Years past, Iceland-style:






(The first picture is a "brenna", or big bonfire. They're a traditional part of the celebrations here, with dozens around town; one study last year pinned something like 80% of our annual dioxin emissions back to the brennur, lol, which I guess is good in that it means we don't have much in terms of emissions from other sources...)

I expect celebrations to be a lot more toned-down for those stuck in Vestfirir, obviously. Hopefully they'll get the roads open today or tomorrow; I know they're working on it.

(Update: Where can one report a bug around here? If I hit the "modify comment" button on a post containing non-english characters, even if I don't make or save any changes, it messes up all of said characters in the post)


Good Morning,

scroll down to the very bottom of this page and click on "contact" and then follow the prompts.
Waycool, KR!

907. beell
.
Quoting RTLSNK:


Good Morning,

scroll down to the very bottom of this page and click on "contact" and then follow the prompts.


"Sorry, we couldn't submit your request."

Ugh. Nothing like getting a bug when trying to report a bug. :Þ
If anyone would like to watch the Fireworks from Sydney Harbour. I found a cam for ya's.
Link

There is between 1.5 and 2 million people around Sydney Harbour right now. 8 minutes till 2013
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
532 AM EST MON DEC 31 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-312200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
532 AM EST MON DEC 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...FOG IMPACT...
AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING THE THREAT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

PRC




NEW YEAR 2013 UPDATE
___________________________

12:00 AM...HAPPY NEW YEAR FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA....AUSIE!!!!!!!!!
Sydney, Newcastle, Canberra, Melbourne....

next up: Darwin, Tokyo and Seoul...

click pic for larger view...


next update in an hour
HAPPY 2013 Everyone.... Bring it on
PLEASE FOLKS STAY SAFE THIS HOLIDAY..EARLY THIS MORNING..
Patrap is catching the rains today..stay safe my friend today..
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED IF IT APPEARS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHER...OR THAT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME INVOLVED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE ACCUMULATIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS EACH
PERIOD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IF IT APPEARS
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHER...OR THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME
INVOLVED ON TUESDAY.
916. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
Patrap is catching the rains today..stay safe my friend today..


Why does Texas have a Turkey in that post?
Happy New Year everyone

Quoting LargoFl:
Patrap is catching the rains today..stay safe my friend today..
I got a stinking trace of rain overnight, the drought is over! LOL, Happy New Year, unfortunately the rain over Texas has been trace to a few hundreds so far, radar showing very little.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Happy New Year everyone. Let's all make 2013 better than 2012. I know I will.
Happy New Year Aussie. And to everyone else on this blog:)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
NEW YEAR 2013 UPDATE
___________________________

12:00 AM...HAPPY NEW YEAR FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA....AUSIE!!!!!!!!!
Sydney, Newcastle, Canberra, Melbourne....

next up: Darwin, Tokyo and Seoul...

click pic for larger view...


next update in an hour

I'm in Seoul right now :D
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I got a stinking trace of rain overnight, the drought is over! LOL, Happy New Year, unfortunately the rain over Texas has been trace to a few hundreds so far, radar showing very little.
Rainfall correction I actually received between 1 and 2 tenths overnight which is one of my heaviest rains since September.
Good Morning All..

My Current Wu weather



Webcams from my area this am..






1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida


Quoting AussieStorm:
Happy New Year everyone



I think AU has the best fireworks show hands down..
Quoting pcola57:


I think AU has the best fireworks show hands down..

I'm in the middle of uploading the full show to youtube, I'll post it here once it's finished.
From the Storm Prediction Center:

"Did you know that 2012 will have the fewest number of tornado and severe thunderstorm watches issued by SPC since moving to Norman in 1997? Just 697 watches were issued this year (two numbers were inadvertently skipped which is why the last watch issued was #699). This breaks the previous record low (since SPC has been located in Norman) of 727 in 1999.

The average number of watches per year for 1997-2012: 844. The greatest number of watches in a year during that time span: 983 in 2003."
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Rainfall correction I actually received between 1 and 2 tenths overnight which is one of my heaviest rains since September.
well a trace of rain is better than nothing, we just came out of a 2 year drought, back then i prayed for a trace of rain..happy new year to you and yours!!
Hope this pans out for our Texas friends..

well its new years eve and already we have 1 traffic death, im sure more tonight..dont drink and drive folks..get that designated driver if your partying tonight ok..we want you here tomorrow
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
From the Storm Prediction Center:

"Did you know that 2012 will have the fewest number of tornado and severe thunderstorm watches issued by SPC since moving to Norman in 1997? Just 697 watches were issued this year (two numbers were inadvertently skipped which is why the last watch issued was #699). This breaks the previous record low (since SPC has been located in Norman) of 727 in 1999.

The average number of watches per year for 1997-2012: 844. The greatest number of watches in a year during that time span: 983 in 2003."


Thats an eye opener..
I didn't know that..
Thanks TA..
Quoting LargoFl:


Looking good for Oklahoma and Arkansas..
They really need it,especially NW Ark..
DOC...I dont know if you read every post but I want to wish you and yours A very happy new years!!...enjoy
Quoting pcola57:


Looking good for Oklahoma and Arkansas..
They really need it,especially NW Ark..
yes indeed and even texas has a moist few days ahead.
supposed to be a very NICE day in Florida tomorrow....
some good rains going thru the drought area's today...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS AND MANY AREAS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT.

* FREEZE WATCH...............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FROST ADVISORY.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FROST IN THE VALLEYS AND MANY AREAS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE IN THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

WHERE IT IS NOT BREEZY...IT WILL BE VERY CHILLY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH AREAS OF FROST AWAY FROM
THE COAST.

* FREEZE WATCH...............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FROST ADVISORY.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

$$

DB
The cold weather is no friend to Florida's citrus crops, of course.

And a bad winter could be on the horizon.

Citrus growers have been preparing for an increased chance of a freeze next month.

According to The Ledger of Lakeland, scientists say the odds of a major freeze reaching South and Central Florida, including Polk County, are about 40 percent.

In a recent forecast, Harris-Mann Climatology of Coeur d'Alene, Idaho predicted a stronger chance of sub-freezing temperatures hitting Central and South Florida in the middle of January.

The last major freeze in that part of Florida happened in 1989.
I'm not going to be on from now till tomorrow so

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hope you all have a great year in 2013! :)


TOP TEN SIGNS THAT YOU MIGHT BE A WEATHER NUT...
Written by Robert Ruhf

YOU MIGHT BE A WEATHER NUT IF...

(10) ...YOU SPEND MORE THAN THREE HOURS A DAY WATCHING THE WEATHER CHANNEL.

(9) ...YOU DRIVE AROUND TOWN WITH A DOPPLER RADAR ATTACHED TO THE ROOF OF YOUR CAR.

(8) ...YOU HAVE EVER BEEN IN AN ARGUMENT WITH SOMEONE OVER A TRIVIAL WEATHER FACT.

(7) ...YOU WERE LATE TO YOUR SISTER'S WEDDING BECAUSE YOU WERE OUT CHASING A THUNDERSTORM.

(6) ...YOU NAMED YOUR CAT "BLIZZARD" AND YOUR DOG "STORMCHASER."

(5) ...INSTEAD OF RUNNING FOR THE BASEMENT WHEN A TORNADO IS SPOTTED, YOU RUN FOR THE VIDEO CAMERA.

(4) ...YOU KNOW THE NAMES OF AT LEAST FIVE PEOPLE ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL.

(3) ...YOU'VE CALCULATED THAT YOUR BACK DOOR PRODUCES A WIND CHILL EVERY TIME IT IS OPENED TOO FAST.

(2) ...YOUR FAVORITE HOLIDAY IS GROUNDHOG DAY.

(1) ...YOU HATED THE MOVIE "TWISTER" BECAUSE OF ITS UNREALISTIC PORTRAYAL OF STORM CHASING, BUT YOU'VE SEEN IT AT LEAST SIX TIMES.
Quoting Doppler22:
I'm not going to be on from now till tomorrow so

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hope you all have a great year in 2013! :)


Same to you Doppler22..
Enjoy yourself.. :)
Link
the arctic plunge is very evident over the Rockies..
Starting to look like this system may dump a little more snow than originally thought. Already have snow being reported in Springfield, IL. Nice band setting up north along I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois, if that band stays orientated along it's current axis, I think 3- 6 inches will be a good bet.

Are we still tied for the record low with 944 tornado reports?

correction, i see we have 947 now, so close.
Happy New Year to everyone on this weather blog! Got down to 25 F. early this morning,which is a little below normal,but has been much colder in the past! Awesome pic's @ Karenrei !
Here is the full 12minutes of the Sydney 2013 New Years fireworks show.


With this, I am off to bed. Goodnight all.
Happy New Year!!!
whoops.. meant to edit other one, not quote it (can't figure out how to embed the gif)
Why no Gandalf? It's another winter storm, and a rating opportunity for TWC...

Snowfall Amounts
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:


Why no Gandalf? It's another winter storm, and a rating opportunity for TWC...

You sure do talk about them a lot and are up to date about them for not liking the channel...
Happy New Year Everyone!

Satisfaction.com


Very Cloudy in Alaska today..



Started snowing here in Decatur, IL already. Was not supposed to start until mid-afternoon due to very dry upper levels which appear to be already saturated. Waiting on the new GFS and NAM for snowfall totals. Thinking these will be bumped. Already 0.5-1.5" being reported in Missori this morning.
All I want to know is why... the other storm got a name, why can't this? Guess we don't really know what TWCs criteria is, or they don't have one set in stone
Sunrise this morning from the tower cam with the summit of Mount Rainier casting a shadow streak on clouds above.

Quoting quasistationary:

Fiends who believe in AGW are idiots
Easy there,I was trying to make joke! Then the ban hammer came out on the next comment and put me in timeout! It's all good. Happy New Year!
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20122013
16:00 PM RET December 31 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 11.8S 57.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds up to 100 NM from the center, up to 220 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.4S 57.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 13.5S 56.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 18.1S 54.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.2S 54.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================
Microwave imagery TRMM at 0701z depicts few evolution of the deep convection organization during the past 6 hours, with offset northwest of the low level circulation center.

Structure and intensity of the system are almost stable within the past 6 hours (wind field structure similar to a monsoon depression).

The system should resume a general southwestwards track for the next 24 hours on the northern edge of a low to mid troposphere ridge. Beyond, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system with a northerly steering flow. Consequently, the system should track southwards. On this track, the system is expected to pass close or over the Mascareignes archipelago Thursday before evacuation towards the mid-lat Saturday January 5th. Last available numerical weather prediction models forecast a faster movement on and after 24 hours, so the closest point of approach of Réunion island is forecast about 6 hours sooner than the previous issue.

Intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the previous issue. Indeed, lower level environmental conditions are favorable (very good lower levels convergence and favorable sea surface temperatures). The upper levels vertical wind shear may continue to fluctuate during the next 36 hours. Consequently, the deepening of this large size system should be laborious during the next 36 hours. Beyond, system should benefit of good conditions to intensify more sharply during 24 hours. During night from Thursday to Friday, system should undergo cooler sea surface temperature.

On and after Friday, northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft. Extratropical transition is expected to begin between Thursday and Friday.

Given all the above, unhabitants of Agalega, Réunion, and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to stay larger than the average and associated hazards could affect widespread areas. Consequently, meteorological conditions are expected to deteriorate well before the center pass close to coastal areas.

July 2012: Hottest Month Ever
According to the latest statistics from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature for the contiguous United States during July was 77.6°F, which is 3.3°F above the 20th-century average...



Program Overview


The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."


USGCRP's Vision and Mission:

Our Vision:
A nation, globally engaged and guided by science, meeting the challenges of climate and global change

Our Mission:
To build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support
Thirteen departments and agencies participate in the USGCRP, which was known as the U.S. Climate Change Science Program from 2002 through 2008. The program is steered by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research under the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, overseen by the Executive Office of the President, and facilitated by the National Coordination Office.
During the past two decades, the United States, through the USGCRP, has made the world's largest scientific investment in the areas of climate change and global change research. Since its inception, the USGCRP has supported research and observational activities in collaboration with several other national and international science programs.

These activities led to major advances in several key areas including but not limited to:

Observing and understanding short- and long-term changes in climate, the ozone layer, and land cover;
Identifying the impacts of these changes on ecosystems and society;
Estimating future changes in the physical environment, and vulnerabilities and risks associated with those changes; and
Providing scientific information to enable effective decision making to address the threats and opportunities posed by climate and global change.
These advances have been documented in numerous assessments commissioned by the program and have played prominent roles in international assessments such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Program results and plans are documented in the program's annual report, Our Changing Planet.

CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - Overview


At a September 2008 meeting involving 20 climate modeling groups from around the world, the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), with input from the IGBP AIMES project, agreed to promote a new set of coordinated climate model experiments. These experiments comprise the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 will notably provide a multi-model context for 1) assessing the mechanisms responsible for model differences in poorly understood feedbacks associated with the carbon cycle and with clouds, 2) examining climate “predictability” and exploring the ability of models to predict climate on decadal time scales, and, more generally, 3) determining why similarly forced models produce a range of responses.

It is expected that some of the scientific questions that arose during preparation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) will through CMIP5 be addressed in time for evaluation in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5, scheduled for publication in late 2013). The IPCC/CMIP5 schedule (pdf ) is now available and the three key dates are as follows:
Februrary 2011: First model output is expected to be available for analysis,
July 31, 2012: By this date papers must be submitted for publication to be eligible for assesment by WG1,
March 15, 2013: By this date papers cited by WG1 must be published or accepted.
The IPCC’s AR5 is scheduled to be published in September 2013. Future timeline information can be found on IPCC WG1 website.

CMIP5 is meant to provide a framework for coordinated climate change experiments for the next five years and thus includes simulations for assessment in the AR5 as well as others that extend beyond the AR5. CMIP5 is not, however, meant to be comprehensive; it cannot possibly include all the different model intercomparison activities that might be of value, and it is expected that various groups and interested parties will develop additional experiments that might build on and augment the experiments described here.

CMIP5 promotes a standard set of model simulations in order to:
evaluate how realistic the models are in simulating the recent past,
provide projections of future climate change on two time scales, near term (out to about 2035) and long term (out to 2100 and beyond), and
understand some of the factors responsible for differences in model projections, including quantifying some key feedbacks such as those involving clouds and the carbon cycle
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
All I want to know is why... the other storm got a name, why can't this? Guess we don't really know what TWCs criteria is, or they don't have one set in stone


There has to be an active winter storm warning and forecast of 6+ inches of snowfall over a large area of population to be named.

I only see 1 winter storm warning on the NWS warning map within the lower 48 states.


Portlight wunderblog

www.portlight.org

Operation Restore, our project to aid people with disabilities who were affected by Superstorm Sandy, has begun in New York and New Jersey. Because the damage wrought is so great, the process of clean-up and remediation has been slow, but needs of the community are coming to light every day. We will be replacing durable medical equipment, but in partnership with our friends at BonaResponds, we'll also be helping to muck-out basements and crawlspaces, gut flooded homes, and begin the restoration process.

As we reach out to the local disability community, we've encountered families with children with mobility issues, who've lost everything from chairs and scooters, to ramps and lifts. There are elderly couples whose lifelong homes were destroyed; a mother caring for her grown daughter, whose accessible apartment on the ground level of her mother's home was taken out by floodwaters; and so many more.

As is often the case, it has taken some time for the scope of these needs to come into focus, and they are far greater than we'd even imagined. We will continue to address as many of them as we can in the coming weeks, with more volunteers on the ground as needed. We are building a network within the community and coming together to restore and rebuild. As always, we thank you for your continued support!


Riverside Municipal CA


Fair

45°F

7°C

Humidity 43%
Wind Speed NE 6 MPH
Barometer 30.18 in (1021.4 mb)
Dewpoint 24°F (-4°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi

Last Update on 31 Dec 7:53 am PST


My low this morning was 39.8 and that was the only time mine had dipped into the thirties all Month.
Quoting quasistationary:

Fiends who believe in AGW are idiots


Belief has nothing to do with scientific results. Or do you have some fundamentally new set of physical theories to contradict 150 years of well tested, well established science? If you do, you really need to publish a few papers and win the Nobel.


Numerous to widespread showers are expected over the area beginning early New Years Day and could impact the region through Thursday as a cold front and area of low pressure slowly move through the Lower Mississippi Valley region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with rainfall amounts averaging 1 to 3 inches during the entire period. The heaviest rain will likely occur New Years Day...Tuesday. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to develop over the coastal waters from late Tuesday night through Friday in the wake of the cold front.

Current Jet Stream..

Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
All I want to know is why... the other storm got a name, why can't this? Guess we don't really know what TWCs criteria is, or they don't have one set in stone


Invest snowstorm91US
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like another cold week is in store.This is very good as the first half of Dec was 7 degrees above average.Yikes!.Seems nature balanced it's self out.Those pesky 60+ degree days are a distant memory.



Can you all find something better else to do besides argue about J.B all day long?.Its getting tiresome now...
Did u get snow this go-round? Looked like it turned to rain....
973. ARiot
Quoting quasistationary:

Fiends who believe in AGW are idiots


It's funny that you used the word "belive" since AGW is back by more than a hundred years of empirical scientific evidence.

Maybe you need a mirror to find what you're looking for.



Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60
Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays
Synopsis For High Island To Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nm
Have issued a sca for waters 20-60 miles offshore as winds are currently running in the 20-25 knot range with seas forecast to reach 7 feet this afternoon. Raised caution flags for the bays as winds today should run in the 15-20 knot range. Decided to maintain the spec for coastal waters 0 to 20 nm off shore as winds and seas should remain just under advisory criteria. Winds should remain steady through tonight when a cold front pushes into the area. The front should push off the coast Tuesday morning allowing for strong northerly winds and rough seas. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely along the front. Advisories will likely be needed for conditions behind the front. Prolonged advisory/caution conditions are expected for the next few days.
Forecast as of 9:18 am CST on December 31, 2012

Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya To High Island Tx Out 60
Nautical Miles
Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm
A warm front will move north across the coastal waters this morning and into southern Louisiana. A frontal wave will form over deep south Texas along the front and will move rapidly across the area on Tuesday. The trailing cold front will bring strong northerly winds to the coastal waters by late Tuesday.



*Note sca = small craft advisory
Quoting pcola57:


Looking good for Oklahoma and Arkansas..
They really need it,especially NW Ark..
About 0.5" so far at my house in NW Arkanas, with a steady light rain. I'll take it. -20" rainfall is no fun.
Quoting ArkWeather:
About 0.5" so far at my house in NW Arkanas, with a steady light rain. I'll take it. -20" rainfall is no fun.

I hear you Ark..
I hope you get a good soaking day-long rain.. :)
Quoting Minnemike:
Link
the arctic plunge is very evident over the Rockies..


Was zero when I woke up (in Helena MT) this morning...about 10 now
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting quasistationary:

Fiends who believe in AGW are idiots
My, but that's harsh. If science-minded people offend you so, I can't help but wonder how you feel about the truly egregious--such as those who can neither spell nor use proper end-of-sentence punctuation. ;-)
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


It's interesting that you say that, Taz.

I was sitting around listening to the "old timers" today and all the talk was around the fact that they don't like the fact that mango trees that shouldn't be bearing fruit are (including our own here at the house) and that there are other plants behaving in very bizarre ways. It will be interesting to see what happens this next season. We've been some lucky the last 10 years over here. It's only a matter of time before the next big one.....
Pay attention to the mango trees... they talk a good game.

Quoting indianrivguy:
Have a great day everyone, I am off to pick shrimp!
LOL... always a laudable activity...



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
From the Storm Prediction Center:

"Did you know that 2012 will have the fewest number of tornado and severe thunderstorm watches issued by SPC since moving to Norman in 1997? Just 697 watches were issued this year (two numbers were inadvertently skipped which is why the last watch issued was #699). This breaks the previous record low (since SPC has been located in Norman) of 727 in 1999.

The average number of watches per year for 1997-2012: 844. The greatest number of watches in a year during that time span: 983 in 2003."
How well do the number of watches correspond to the number of tornados / tornado outbreaks?
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


TOP TEN SIGNS THAT YOU MIGHT BE A WEATHER NUT...
Written by Robert Ruhf

YOU MIGHT BE A WEATHER NUT IF...

(10) ...YOU SPEND MORE THAN THREE HOURS A DAY WATCHING THE WEATHER CHANNEL.

(9) ...YOU DRIVE AROUND TOWN WITH A DOPPLER RADAR ATTACHED TO THE ROOF OF YOUR CAR.

(8) ...YOU HAVE EVER BEEN IN AN ARGUMENT WITH SOMEONE OVER A TRIVIAL WEATHER FACT.

(7) ...YOU WERE LATE TO YOUR SISTER'S WEDDING BECAUSE YOU WERE OUT CHASING A THUNDERSTORM.

(6) ...YOU NAMED YOUR CAT "BLIZZARD" AND YOUR DOG "STORMCHASER."

(5) ...INSTEAD OF RUNNING FOR THE BASEMENT WHEN A TORNADO IS SPOTTED, YOU RUN FOR THE VIDEO CAMERA.

(4) ...YOU KNOW THE NAMES OF AT LEAST FIVE PEOPLE ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL.

(3) ...YOU'VE CALCULATED THAT YOUR BACK DOOR PRODUCES A WIND CHILL EVERY TIME IT IS OPENED TOO FAST.

(2) ...YOUR FAVORITE HOLIDAY IS GROUNDHOG DAY.

(1) ...YOU HATED THE MOVIE "TWISTER" BECAUSE OF ITS UNREALISTIC PORTRAYAL OF STORM CHASING, BUT YOU'VE SEEN IT AT LEAST SIX TIMES.
We need a list like this for wunderbloggers... lol
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
All I want to know is why... the other storm got a name, why can't this? Guess we don't really know what TWCs criteria is, or they don't have one set in stone
Thought this one was supposed to be a bit milder.

BTW, I've been watching a bit more TWC the last few days while I've been in Florida, and I have to admit they look a little better than they did in July. e.g. I note the "storm stories" type evening programming gets interrupted for "on the 8s" type live updates, which are a much better compromise that the stuff they used to do... I haven't really looked at the morning shows, though.
NEW YEAR 2013 UPDATE
_________________________

HAPPY NEW YEAR PHILIPPINES, CHINA, JAPAN, HONG KONG, ALL AUSTRALIA, VIETNAM, INDONESIA, TAIWAN, SINGAPORE, KOREAS, MALAYSIA.!!!!.

Next one up... India



click imager for larger view

next update in about an hour...sorry i was out doing something before
Currently 51.8