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Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan bearing down on Fiji

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:19 PM GMT on December 16, 2012

Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Evan is closing in on the main island of Fiji, where hurricane warnings are flying and torrential rains are already falling. Radar images from Fiji show that the large eye of Evan is just north of the two main islands of Fiji. The expected southwesterly track of the storm should keep the calm of the eye just north of Fiji, though the southern eyewall may brush the north coast of the main island of Vici Leva, affecting the tourist town of Nadi. Evan has intensified today to its strongest level yet, with 120 mph winds, and satellite loops show that the storm remains well-organized, with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity and a prominent eye. Evan will be in a region with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots as it approaches Fiji, and could intensify by another 5 - 10 mph before making its closest pass to the islands later today. According to NOAA's Coastal Services Center, Evan is the strongest tropical cyclone to threaten Fiji since Tropical Cyclone Daman of December 2007. Dating back to 1972, twelve Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones have threatened the Republic of Fiji.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Fiji weather service showing the large eye of Tropical Cyclone Evan just north of Fiji.

Severe damage in Samoa from Evan
Evan made landfall on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia on Thursday as a Category 1 cyclone with 90 mph winds, and intensified into a Category 3 storm with 115 mph after the eye wandered back offshore late Thursday. Media reports indicate that Evan killed four and has left eight missing on Samoa, and left at least 4,000 homeless. The main power plant for Samoa was destroyed, and it is expected that power will be out to almost all of Samoa for at least ten more days. Evan was one of Samoa's most destructive tropical cyclones on record, as discussed by wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan nearing Fiji at 01:35 UTC December 16, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!

Evan certainly has been an interesting tropical cyclone.

By the way...

The squall line towards the middle and end of this week is going to be epic. Huge wind event looking likely.

Thanks Doc, Evan sure is impressive:

Thanks Doc
Thanks Chief!

Yep, TA13, gonna be pretty strong imo. Looking forward to it.
Thanks doc
Thanks, Doc. You've brought these Pacific Storms home to me.

cool thanks
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update..
You can definitely see an eye on the radar you posted..
Evan has ramped up in intensity quite a bit since hitting Samoa..
Thanks again

Water Vapor is quite impressive as well..



Three-dimensional images by Nasa's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite just hours before the landfall of Typhoon Pablo on Baganga, Davao Oriental on December 3 showed a quick intensification from a Category 3 to Category 5 cyclone, which an official described as "full catastrophe."

"This close to landfall, the TRMM satellite saw what could only be described as the 'full catastrophe' in terms of the eyewall indicators of a potentially destructive tropical cyclone," said Owen Kelley of the TRMM science team at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., in a report online on hurricanes and tropical cyclones.

Defined as a cyclone's most destructive region, an eyewall is located just outside the eye where the most damaging winds and intense rainfall is found.

The eyewall around Pablo had six devastating features.
------------------------------------------------- ------
1) First, noon of December 3, just hours before the pre-dawn landfall, the TRMM radar saw two hot towers "simultaneously reaching a 15.5 kilometers altitude on the northeast side of the eyewall where the storm's forward motion is added to the counterclockwise winds circling under the eyewall."

A hot tower is a cloud that penetrates the tropopause, or that which reached to the lowest later of the atmosphere into the stratosphere. The tropopuase is usually around 15 kilometers above sea level.

The presence of hot towers in a typhoon's eyewall indicates strengthening in the next six hours.

From past records of TRMM images, one hot tower higher than 14.5 kilometers or nine miles already indicates intensification is ongoing. More than that, at the base of these two hot towers were heavy rainfall.
-------------------------------------------------

2)Second, Pablo not just had one but two eyewalls. This indicates "rapid intensification."
------------------------------------------------

3) Worse, the inner eyewall had only a ~20 km radius, which is smaller than the average cyclone, which again says a lot of the typhoon's "fearsome potential."
"A compact eyewall means that the typhoon's eye contains only a relatively small volume of air that would need to be heated in order to lower the storm's ocean-surface central pressure, which in turn, would make it easier to increase the speed of the circling surface winds that determine the storm's 'headline' intensity," the report said.
------------------------------------------------- ---

4)
As if that's not enough, Pablo just before landfall had two lightning flashes in the inner edge of one of the eyewall hot towers, a relatively rare occurrence in tropical cyclones.

"Lightning tends to occur where updrafts are strong enough to suspend in mid-air a mix of supercooled water and grauple or hail-sized chunks of ice," the report said.

This ice can only be formed when updrafts "repeatedly bob ice particles up and down through a lower cloud layer with liquid water droplets and then a higher cloud layer cold enough to promote freezing." Meaning, Pablo was not just gathering a very strong rain and wind, it was also playing around with ice.
------------------------------------------------- -

5)As a fifth indicator that typhoon Pablo was brewing something really, really big, the TRMM observed "cloud-top temperatures."

The coldest cloud tops had temperatures as cold a -90C. The report said this shows that Pablo was sucking up a great deal of energy from the ocean surface and turning this into strong updrafts that were punching through the troposphere and into what lies between the troposphere and stratosphere.

From relative heat to very beyond freezing cold means very strong updrafts indicating the typhoon was going on an overdrive that has yet to be witnessed again.
------------------------------------------------- -----

6) To top it off, these same cloud-top temperatures show that the circling wind of the typhoon were contained and prevented from simply dissipating from the eye to the outside drafts.

"Specifically, the cloud-top temperatures show gravity waves propagating around the eyewall instead of spreading away from the inner core like ripples in a pond," the report said.
_________________________________________________ ---

Thus, while the Pagasa had earlier announced that it does not use the term super typhoon and that such a term is only used by the media, Pablo was indeed a super typhoon for lack of any other word to describe it.

To add to its record-breaking dimensions, Pablo broke a long-held belief that tropical cyclones can only form at least five or eight degrees of latitude away from the equator.

"Tropical Cyclone Bopha (international codename of Pablo) has just broken this rule, with the TRMM satellite radar catching Bopha in the act of rapidly intensifying from category 3 to category 5 when approximately six degrees north of the equator," the Nasa report said.

There were very few such tropical storms or typhoons near the equator. These include Washi or Sendong, which hit Iligan and Cagayan de Oro Cities last year, Tropical Storm Agni that fell on Somalia on December 5, 2004, and Vamie which hit Singapore on December 27, 2001.

"In the past half century, the two tropical storms with the most similar landfall locations in the southern Philippines may be Kate (Typhoon Titang in 1970) that made landfall at category 4 and caused over 600 deaths and Washi (Sendong in 2011) that make landfall as a tropical storm and caused over 1,000 deaths," the report said.

It was Titang that hit Davao Region and at that time it was listed as the deadliest typhoon to hit the country with 631 dead, 284 missing and $50-million in damage. This has since been surpassed by nearly 20 typhoons throughout the 42-year span, the worst of which so far is Pablo.

"The physical mechanisms contributing to such an event (Pablo) will take scientists time to unravel," the report said.

As of Sunday, the death toll from Pablo has reached 1,020, while 844 people remained missing.

In its update, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said the number of injured persons also rose to 2,662.

The highest number of dead totaling 962 was reported from Region 11 (Davao Region). The rest included 21 in the Caraga Region, 15 in Region 10 (Northern Mindanao), 10 in Region 7 (Central Visayas), four in Region 12 (Soccsksargen), three in Region 8 (Eastern Visayas), three in Region 4-B (Mimaropa) and one each in Region 9 (Zamboanga Peninsula) and Region 6 (Western Visayas).

The typhoon also affected 701,224 families, or 6,203,826 people in 2,910 villages in 271 towns and 38 cities in 32 provinces. Of these, 230,453 families or 987,349 people are staying in 60 evacuation centers.

Damage caused by Pablo was estimated at P24,160,920,528.05 -- P7,761,431,310 in infrastructure, P16,350,529,805.05 in agriculture, and P48,959,413 in private properties.

At least 63,040 houses were destroyed while 95,544 were partially damaged, said the NDRRMC
Thanks Doc.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Evan certainly has been an interesting tropical cyclone.

By the way...

The squall line towards the middle and end of this week is going to be epic. Huge wind event looking likely.



SPC has my area outlooked, im hoping for 70mph+ winds in a low CAPE environment...forced line of convection
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


SPC has my area outlooked, im hoping for 70mph+ winds in a low CAPE environment...forced line of convection

You're in tomorrow's outlook also:

Thanks DRM.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Three-dimensional images by Nasa's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite just hours before the landfall of Typhoon Pablo on Baganga, Davao Oriental on December 3 showed a quick intensification from a Category 3 to Category 5 cyclone, which an official described as "full catastrophe."

"This close to landfall, the TRMM satellite saw what could only be described as the 'full catastrophe' in terms of the eyewall indicators of a potentially destructive tropical cyclone," said Owen Kelley of the TRMM science team at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., in a report online on hurricanes and tropical cyclones.

Defined as a cyclone's most destructive region, an eyewall is located just outside the eye where the most damaging winds and intense rainfall is found.


Storm of the year no doubt.

Cyclone Tomas hit Fiji in 2010 as a category 3/4
Can't say I've seen convection much deeper than this on a regular cyclone of this intensity.

The deep convection associated with Evan continues to prevent it from clearing out its eye on geostationary imagery.
Quoting yqt1001:
Can't say I've seen convection much deeper than this on a regular cyclone of this intensity.

Evan will graze the north coast or very close...
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Cyclone Evan is nearing Fiji:

Thank You Dr Masters . Thoughts to the people on the Islands in Evan's Path and those already affected.
Thank you Dr. Masters
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Evan certainly has been an interesting tropical cyclone.

By the way...

The squall line towards the middle and end of this week is going to be epic. Huge wind event looking likely.

I'm glad that someone is paying attention to the weather on Dec. 21st.

Seriously though, is it really going to be "epic?" Will it be as severe as the Derecho that knocked out power to D.C. and vicinity?
Bucketing down rain here in southern Ontario. It could be worse; it could have been snow.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I'm glad that someone is paying attention to the weather on Dec. 21st.

Seriously though, is it really going to be "epic?" Will it be as severe as the Derecho that knocked out power to D.C. and vicinity?

Will it rival the 2012 Summer Derecho? No, that event was historic. But it has potential to be a significant wind event. At least, according to the ECMWF. The GFS has a much weaker squall line.
Looks like Evan is bending a bit quicker around that ridge...



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS...SW AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 161823Z - 161930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE AXES ACROSS
SE LA AND SW AL...WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO. A NEW WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED PRIOR TO 19Z.

DISCUSSION...THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED
SOME SINCE LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING IS BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AS MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS SPREAD INLAND. THE RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION COULD
SUPPORT AN UPSWING IN STORM INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL/LINE-PARALLEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW LINE SEGMENTS
WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...SURFACE OBS AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOW WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE AXES ACROSS SE LA AND SW
AL...WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG EACH BAND. THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT MORE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH AND ATTENDANT
RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..THOMPSON/CORFIDI.. 12/16/2012
Scattered speculation, otherwise mostly clear.
The eye is just off the northwestern coast of the northern island of Fiji on radar:

It looks like Evan has closed off his east eyewall:



Quoting Civicane49:
Fiji's cyclone history:

Tomas (2010):



Gene (2008):



Daman (2007):



Ami (2003):



and they are not just weak storms but strong hurricanes
The next storm system appears to be a fast mover.
The black is building back in the latest frames



Cyclone Evan is bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the two main islands of Fiji. The reason the eye has trouble clearing it out over the past few days on satellite imagery is due to the unusually deep convection on the core of the system. Evan should have little to no fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours before high vertical shear and cool sea surface temperatures take the toll on the cyclone.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1237 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

TXC039-167-201-162030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0124.121216T1837Z-121216T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-
1237 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 1232 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
PASADENA...LEAGUE CITY...PEARLAND...FRIENDSWOOD...ALVIN...
DICKINSON...SOUTH HOUSTON...WEBSTER...NASSAU BAY...TAYLOR LAKE
VILLAGE...EL LAGO...MANVEL...KEMAH...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...CLEAR
LAKE SHORES...HOLIDAY LAKES...IOWA COLONY...HILLCREST...LIVERPOOL
AND BONNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

&&
black blob alert ^^
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
MSZ051-055>058-062>066-072-073-162010-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-NEWTON MS-MARION MS-LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-
LAMAR MS-JONES MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-JASPER MS-COVINGTON MS-CLARKE MS-
111 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
111 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 30 TO 40 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF TURNERVILLE TO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BOGUE CHITTO AT 109 PM CST...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EXTRA TIME AND BE ALERT FOR BLINDING WIND-DRIVEN RAIN.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME WEST CENTRAL CLARKE...COVINGTON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON DAVIS...NORTHERN JONES...NORTHWESTERN LAMAR...LAWRENCE...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN MARION...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3117 9002 3133 9005 3134 9063 3145 9063
3223 8930 3222 8916 3203 8891 3182 8891
3182 8894 3172 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 308DEG 34KT 3212 8923 3136 9048

$$

MRM
Not good, it looks like Evan is turning slightly right, and that it will make landfall on the western half of Fiji. Extremely intense convection with Evan. I'm not sure where the worse quadrant is though in a clock-wise circulation cyclone in the south pacific. But I would imagine it would be on the southwest side instead of northeast, but I don't know that for sure.
They just don't look right spinning backwards.. :)
Quoting Civicane49:
The eye is just off the northwestern coast of the northern island of Fiji on radar:




The Fiji radar imagery is obviously very primitive, so its hard to get a good grip on the storm satellite is much better in this case.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Not good, it looks like Evan is turning slightly right, and that it will make landfall on the western half of Fiji. Extremely intense convection with Evan. I'm not sure where the worse quadrant is though in a clock-wise circulation cyclone in the south pacific. But I would imagine it would be on the southwest side instead of northeast, but I don't know that for sure.


Correct. Left front quadrant with respect to forward motion in the southern hemisphere.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Not good, it looks like Evan is turning slightly right, and that it will make landfall on the western half of Fiji. Extremely intense convection with Evan. I'm not sure where the worse quadrant is though in a clock-wise circulation cyclone in the south pacific. But I would imagine it would be on the southwest side instead of northeast, but I don't know that for sure.


I'm pretty sure it would be the Southeast quadrant as everything South of the Equator is mirrored.
Powers down in parts of Fiji now.

Heres a line form a report:-

"Close to its centre the cyclone is expected to have average winds up to 185 kmh with momentary gusts to 270 kmh, and forecasters warn the destructive winds may begin several hours before the cyclone centre passes overhead or nearby."

Link, TV New Zealand I think:-

http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/power-no-water-cyclo ne-evan-hits-fiji-5295639
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_________________________

Northern New England snowstorm



click for bigger pic
Quoting indianrivguy:
They just don't look right spinning backwards.. :)



Yeah it does look weird, the structure looks a bit different as well.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah it does look weird, the structure looks a bit different as well.

Turn your monitor round and put a mirror in front of the screen,then look over the top of your monitor.
Just a thought for the northern hemispherians.
You make some very nice weather maps tr, thank you.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161951Z - 162115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...THOUGH THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR VCT AT THE INTERSECTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE MORNING CONVECTION...AND A MORE NNE-SSW ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR
70...RESPECTIVELY...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 1500
J/KG. DEEP-LAYER WSWLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
ACROSS THIS AREA...AND THE MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER ALONG THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SUCH THAT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS IN QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH A SMALL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST.

..THOMPSON/CORFIDI.. 12/16/2012
Quoting beell:


Correct. Left front quadrant with respect to forward motion in the southern hemisphere.

If Evan is moving southwest and the strongest winds are in the left front quadrant with respect to that forward motion...doesn't that make the southwest side the most intense?
Oh lol, that's what he said.

Nevermind. This direction thing confuses me.
No nevermind, I wasn't confused.

If the storm is moving southwestward and the strongest winds are in the left front quadrant in relation to the direction the storm is headed...doesn't that mean the strongest winds are in the southeast quadrant and not the southwest?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No nevermind, I wasn't confused.

If the storm is moving southwestward and the strongest winds are in the left front quadrant in relation to the direction the storm is headed...doesn't that mean the strongest winds are in the southeast quadrant and not the southwest?


That's what I would think.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No nevermind, I wasn't confused.

If the storm is moving southwestward and the strongest winds are in the left front quadrant in relation to the direction the storm is headed...doesn't that mean the strongest winds are in the southeast quadrant and not the southwest?


I read it a little fast myself. Technically, in the southern part of the storm. SE would split the quadrants of a storm moving SW.
Quoting indianrivguy:
You make some very nice weather maps tr, thank you.


sure...they're all for you guys...
My birthday coming up...can't wait to finally turn 20 tomorrow
In the event that the good Lord is not willin' and the creeks rise,

Happy Birthday!... tomorrow!

Besides,, somewhere you are already 20!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 16.4S 178.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 13 knots. Position good based on radar imagery/multispectral enhanced infrared radar and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Eye becomingdiscernable in enhanced infrared radar. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on eye patter with B eye in CMG surround.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 17.0S 177.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.2S 176.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.7S 176.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Quoting indianrivguy:
In the event that the good Lord is not willin' and the creeks rise,

Happy Birthday!... tomorrow!

Besides,, somewhere you are already 20!


true...Im 20 where Aussie lives
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


true...Im 20 where Aussie lives

You're getting old.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're getting old.


thank you analyst , don't push it... in high school i was the oldest in many of my classes. all of my high school friends were 2 years younger than me. WTH???
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're getting old.

Since when is 20 old?
And happy early birthday tr!
Quoting wxchaser97:

Since when is 20 old?


he is like 13 or 15 years old... Saw him on wikipedia
thanks
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


he is like 13 or 15 years old... Saw him on wikipedia

Me and him are the same age and I still wonder why 20 is old.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Me and him are the same age ans I still wonder why 20 is old.


ohhh. Don't know then
I'll have something special for all of you tomorrow
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thank you analyst , don't push it... in high school i was the oldest in many of my classes. all of my high school friends were 2 years younger than me. WTH???

Speaking of WTH?...

November:

"If November seemed unusually cold, you weren't alone. It was the third coldest November in Wilmington's history with temperatures averaging over 6 degrees below normal. Farther inland in Florence temperatures were still 3.4 degrees below normal." -- NWS Wilmington, NC



December:

"The first half of December has been very warm across the Eastern Carolinas. We've run 6 to nearly 10 degrees above normal this month, and have had no freezing temperatures at both Wilmington and Florence. Some cooler weather is expected Friday and Saturday behind a cold front." -- NWS Wilmington, NC

Carolina's...
Quoting wxchaser97:

Me and him are the same age and I still wonder why 20 is old.

Correction: I am month older than you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Correction: I am month older than you.


lol.... he said about the same age... I guess a month is far from about the same then
It has been just too warm this year. I don't like it like this.

2012 May Be Detroit's Warmest Year

In news that may not come as a surprise to long-time residents of Southeast Michigan, the Detroit Area is on pace to be the warmest year in the historical record. The warmest year on the books, which date to 1874, is currently 1998. That year featured the so-called "Climate Event of the Century" when a very intense el Nino developed in the tropical Pacific which significantly altered Northern Hemisphere weather patterns. This year is different in that there does not appear to be such a strong link to any single phenomenon. The Flint Area, which has a historical climate record dating to 1921, is also on pace to have its warmest year in that period.

Average Temperature

Location


Jan 1 - Dec 14, 2012 (347 days)


Jan 1 - Dec 31, 1998 (365 days)

Detroit Area


55.1F


53.5F

Flint Area


52.9F


50.9F

See this year's past headlines (below) for more detail on some of the most significant episodes to take place during this prolonged period of warmth in addition to the local winter outlook:

In addition to last winter's mild temperatures, an extraordinarily warm March set numerous records and resulted in significant agricultrual losses.

Summer 2012 was also among Southeast Michigan's hottest, tying Summer 2005 as the hottest for the Detroit Area and spawning a severe drought that eventually expanded into Southeast Michigan.

What will Winter 2012-2013 bring? Despite the mild start to December, which is largely a result of significant cooling of the upper atmosphere over the Arctic during mid to late November, the pattern will soon return to a more seasonable one and is expected to bring about a fairly typical winter season overall. See the 2012-2013 Winter Outlook for more information.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Correction: I am month older than you.

-_-

We are still both 15.
Quoting wxchaser97:

-_-

We are still both 15.


and you know so much about weather
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


and you know so much about weather

Future meteorologist / firefighter.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Future meteorologist / firefighter.


me also future met, language teacher and artist.. cool for you
Both of you are pretty good for 15.. or any age.
Evan's eye is clearing out. Landfall is imminent as well.

Quoting indianrivguy:
Both of you are pretty good for 15.. or any age.


how bout ya?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Evan's eye is clearing out. Landfall is imminent as well.



this cyclone reminds me of Ernesto...
Still a few pixels of black on rb0 with the eye looking a little more defined. Hopefully people in Fiji were/are prepared for Evan.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Still a few pixels of black on rb0 with the eye looking a little more defined. Hopefully people in Fiji were/are prepared for Evan.


i'll go more with were prepared
Evan just jumped from 120mph to 130mph, undergoing one last burst before landfall. The eye really is now becoming noticable on the visible radar. Low VWS, high SST's to great depth, I wouldn't be surprised if RI is going on just prior to landfall.
Quoting Jaevyn:
Evan just jumped from 120mph to 130mph, undergoing one last burst before landfall. The eye really is now becoming noticable on the visible radar. Low VWS, high SST's to great depth, I wouldn't be surprised if RI is going on just prior to landfall.
'

ouch...



I dont think those islands are going to weaken the cyclone if at all
24hr MIMIC looks messed up to me.
I think Evan's the first Cat 4 storm I've ever seen that never fully cleared its eye out.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
My birthday coming up...can't wait to finally turn 20 tomorrow
Oh my goodness....Such a young guy...Happy Birthday
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh my goodness....Such a young guy...Happy Birthday


thanks... btw. people here were calling me old


What do you think Fiji will do to Evan considering the elevation on Fiji?

I don't think Fiji will mess with it's circulation much if it even does...
Quoting Doppler22:


What do you think Fiji will do to Evan considering the elevation on Fiji?


not much
Quoting Doppler22:


What do you think Fiji will do to Evan considering the elevation on Fiji?

Fiji is too small to have any major effect on Evan. However, increasing shear and cooler waters will begin to take their toll in the next day or two, Evan will likely peak this evening/tonight.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE SRN CASCADES EWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ORE
AND PARTS OF THE NRN SIERRAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 162039Z - 170215Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF SNOW WITH RATES POTENTIALLY REACHING 1 IN/HR...
AND PERHAPS 2 IN/HR OVER THE CASCADES AND SIERRAS...WILL IMPACT THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK AND ACCOMPANYING ZONE OF
ENHANCED DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FLOW CONTINUE APPROACHING THE COAST PER
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE FLOW BELOW 700 MB IMPINGES ON A
NW/SE-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE AT AN OBLIQUE ANGLE...WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ORE TO THE E OF
THE ORE CASCADES AFTER 22Z...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES WITH INCREASING
RATES OVER PARTS OF THE CASCADES/SIERRAS. SNOWFALL RATES REACHING
1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE AOA 3500 FT ELEVATION...WHILE RATES LOCALLY
REACHING 2 IN/HR MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CASCADES/SIERRAS. AFTER
A LULL IN THIS PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...SNOWFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY REACHING 1 IN/HR -- EXCEPT TO 2 IN/HR OVER THE
CASCADES/SIERRAS -- WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE -- DEPICTED FROM 43N TO 49N
BETWEEN 127W AND 135W PER RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS -- CROSSES THE
AREA.
Evan's outflow is excellent:

Evan has scary structure. Good thing it has struggled with its convection over the past few days.

Will you people stop talking about your ages.
Quoting Grothar:
Will you people stop talking about your ages.


at least they can do it without using calculus....
I don't know why I can't get the whole image, but it looks like it will be closer to land than they thought.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Future meteorologist / firefighter.
Wow keeping those two jobs would be difficult I think.btw you are 15? I thought you were 13.
Hundreds of tourists trapped in Fiji, as monster cyclone bears down on South Pacific islands
Posted on December 16, 2012


December 16, 2012 – FIJI - Fijian authorities scrambled to evacuate tourists and residents in low-lying areas Sunday as a monster cyclone threatened the Pacific nation with “catastrophic damage” after causing devastation in Samoa. At least four people were killed when Cyclone Evan slammed into Samoa and the toll was expected to rise with a search launched for eight men missing on three fishing boats. Only one survivor has been found, said the New Zealand Rescue Co-ordination Centre, which is overseeing the search. After crossing Samoa, Evan intensified as it ploughed through the Pacific and forecasters said destructive winds could reach nearly 300 kilometers per hour (186 miles per hour) by the time it hits Fiji early Monday. Government officials fear it could be as devastating as Cyclone Kina, which killed 23 people and left thousands homeless in 1993. Squally thunderstorms were expected to flood low-lying areas while coastal villages were at risk of sea flooding, authorities said. The international airport at Nadi was packed as 850 tourists were removed from luxury resorts on outlying islands, “The safety of the tourists was paramount,” said Fiji Tourism and Hotel Association managing director Dixon Seeto, but with most flights booked the holidaymakers had little chance of getting out before the storm. Fiji’s main airline Air Pacific either cancelled or rescheduled its Monday flights while other airlines said they were closely monitoring the situation. Philip Duncan, head analyst with the WeatherWatch.co.nz meteorological service, said Fiji faced the prospect of flash flooding and mudslides. “Gusts may end up climbing to 280 kilometers per hour or greater around the centre of Evan,” Duncan said. “Some small, low-lying communities and resorts may suffer catastrophic damage and some small islands may be entirely submerged as the storm and storm surge roll by.” More than 200 evacuation centers have been opened and Information Ministry permanent secretary Sharon Smith-Johns said people at risk should move. “People living in low-lying areas should consider moving to higher ground or evacuation centres,” she said. Fiji’s military leader Voreqe Bainimarama has warned the storm is an “impending disaster” and offers of international aid have already been received. Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr said Canberra was offering financial assistance as well as expert personnel and supplies. The cyclone is expected to hit the northern part of Fiji early Monday with strong winds and heavy rain striking several hours earlier, said Nadi Weather Office duty forecaster Amit Singh. “The cyclone is not going to slow down. It is intensifying,” he said. Meanwhile, it could be some days before the full extent of the damage in Samoa is known because of the difficulty reaching outlying islands. About 4,500 people remain in emergency shelters after Evan destroyed houses and damaged electricity and fresh water supplies, Samoan officials said. Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele also warned of possible food shortages next year because crops were destroyed. –BI

Quoting aquak9:


at least they can do it without using calculus....


Thanks, "old" friend. :)
Typhoon 04P/EVAN


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 DEC 2012 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 16:41:45 S Lon : 178:18:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 972.3mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.8 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -59.2C Cloud Region Temp : -82.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 118km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 47.6 degrees






JAVA Movie
They have got to be getting some serious rain.

Warnings about storm surge are essential: Editorial


The majority of New Yorkers who died in Hurricane Sandy drowned, many in their homes. A Wall Street Journal graphic details each death: Eden Toussaint, 58, drowned and was found in his basement in Queens; Rick Gold, 67, drowned and was found in his basement, also in Queens; Walter Colborne, 89, drowned after fleeing his Staten Island home.

There are similarly heart-breaking deaths in New Jersey's coastal towns.

All of them point to the need for warnings about storm surge that are understandable and convey the danger that floodwaters pose, even in a storm without fierce winds.

Three years after it dropped surge from the numerical categories used for hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center is inching closer to a separate warning for floodwaters as part of a storm system. It is urgently needed. Center officials say that the full warning system won't be ready until 2015, but they should look for any way possible to speed up that time line.

In the meantime, a color-coded map that indicates how much water is expected in different areas along the coast needs to be ready for use during the 2013 hurricane
season. But Hurricane Center officials are not committing to that. They say the map may be ready next year or in 2014.

Another hurricane season is really too long for vulnerable communities to wait. The maps ought to be available for the 2013 season, and Congress should give the Hurricane Center the resources to make that possible.

The Storm Surge Unit is small, which is a result of budget limitations, team leader Jamie Rhome told Times-Picayune/NOLA.com reporter Mark Schleifstein during a Dec. 5 tour of the center at Florida International University. "I'm the only federal employee here dedicated to storm surge. One federal employee to do what we do in a hurricane, to do all the outreach and training in the offseason and to try to help on the international front.''

Mr. Rhome's staff includes a representative from NOAA's science corps, which is not part of the National Weather Service, and three private contractors. But that is a tiny group to handle surge forecasting during hurricane season -- sometimes on more than one storm at once -- and work on surge research and storm analysis in the other months.

Access to technology for the research has been an issue as well. The surge maps will be based on high-resolution topography information. That is now in hand, but the surge team is trying to decrease the time it takes to create a surge map as a storm is moving toward the coast.

Officials need to agree on the final map and then figure out how best to distribute it to local forecast offices and emergency management agencies. That will take significant coordination and training all along the nation's coastlines.

Obviously, that is a very complicated process. But there must be a sense of urgency about getting it completed for 2013. Hurricane Center officials should figure out what it will take to do so, and then Congress should provide the necessary funding.

The maps, although they will lack the precision of the surge warning being developed, are easily understandable. Blue indicates 3 feet or less water above ground level and red is at the extreme upper end, 9 feet or more above ground. Yellow and orange are intermediate depths. When done, the full warning system will let people know where life-threatening flooding is likely. But the colors on the maps make it pretty obvious if you are at risk.

The heightened awareness of storm surge started with Katrina. And this fall, Isaac and Sandy provided grim reminders. Both of them had only Category 1 winds, but they had dangerous levels of surge that coastal residents didn't fully understand.

There is detailed information on surge available during a storm, but it is not disseminated in an understandable and useful way. It hasn't been emphasized to the public as it should be, either. In addition, local officials have been left to decipher technical information they may not be equipped to handle.

National Hurricane Center directors and emergency managers in hurricane-prone states have complained for 20 years about leaving those decisions to local officials who are untrained and may be more concerned about issues like the cost of evacuation. As the surge warnings are developed, state and local officials who are making evacuation decisions need to be trained to decipher the information.

The impetus is obvious: A clear warning could save lives.

Ann George, 60, and Augustus "Gus" Saunders, 52, drowned in their Braithwaite home during Isaac. The couple believed they could weather the storm. Dozens of other residents there and in LaPlace thought the same thing and ended up being rescued from the floodwaters.

They and Sandy's victims in the Northeast are why the new warning system is so important and why the surge maps, at the least, need to be ready for next season.


114. DDR
Good evening
Anther trough is set to stall over Trinidad and Tobago for a few days.I'm expecting 2-4 inches of rain.
Quoting allancalderini:
Wow keeping those two jobs would be difficult I think.btw you are 15? I thought you were 13.

2012-1997=15
wxchaser97

It may be difficult but they are both things I really like.
Quoting Grothar:
They have got to be getting some serious rain.

Vanua Levu is getting the dirty side of the storm for surge.
Fiji wundersites


Vunisea Weather at a Glance
Weather Station


These are estimated conditions. There are no weather stations nearby.
Station Select
Now

Thunderstorm
Temperature
82 °F
Feels Like 88 °F

Vunisea 82 °F 82% n/a Thunderstorm East at 42




Quoting aquak9:


at least they can do it without using calculus....


that left a mark....
This would bring high winds and a rain to snow event.
Interesting fact:

The cumulative damage total of last decade's (2009-2009) retired Atlantic hurricanes is ~$300 billion. So far this decade (2010-2019), retired storms (will count Sandy as it will be retired in the Spring) have accounted for $83 billion in damage. With the streak of no major hurricane landfalls likely to wear off before 2019, this decade will probably...if I were to take an educated guess...end up as the most destructive decade on record.
Typhoon EVAN

Night IR to Day RGB Loop

Quoting wxchaser97:

2012-1997=15
wxchaser97

It may be difficult but they are both things I really like.
Cool.If you keep with that Idea,I know you will make it. 15 is a good age,but 17 is much better :p
The Rainbow Loop shows a well defined Mature Typhoon bearing down on the Islands.

Note the CDO symmetry in the final frames and the eye structure as well.

124. N3EG
Bombing 980mb low with high winds coming ashore near Astoria, OR today...has TWC named it? Guess not...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how bout ya?


BD,(before dirt)right after Grothar's Big Bang, he was always playing with things that went bang, even as a kid.



Typhoon Bopha - Dec 2012
Featured
Glide: TC-2012-000197-PHL


Overview

Typhoon Bopha passed to the south of the larger islands in the Palau archipelago in the early morning of 3 Dec 2012 with winds of up to 250 km per hour, damaging and destroying buildings and infrastructure. The President declared a state of emergency. (OCHA, 5 Dec 2012)

In the Philippines, the typhoon, locally known as Pablo, made landfall three times as it passed through northern Mindanao, central Visayas, and Palawan on 4 Dec, affecting over 5.4 million people. On 12 Dec, the death toll stands at 740 with a further 890 people reported missing. Overall displacement figures continue to rise, currently totaling 778,200. (OCHA, 12 Dec 2012)

On 10 Dec, the Government and the Humanitarian Country Team launched the Bopha Action Plan for Response and Recovery as part of the Philippines Humanitarian Action Plan 2013, requesting US$65 million to reach 481,000 of the most affected people.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I'm glad that someone is paying attention to the weather on Dec. 21st.


speaking of w eather next week.

feh, tried to post a funny picture.
There are now 5 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


lol.... he said about the same age... I guess a month is far from about the same then

lol you kids. at the other end of the spectrum, twenty years difference in ages is considered the same time.
Quoting wxchaser97:

2012-1997=15
wxchaser97

It may be difficult but they are both things I really like.

you have 40 + years of working life ahead of you. around 40 it'll be easy to start another career, and at about 60 you can do it again.
133. wpb
tc near fiji has strongest winds southwest of the eye?
Quoting plutorising:

you have 40 + years of working life ahead of you. around 40 it'll be easy to start another career, and at about 60 you can do it again.


Says who????
As soon as the eye clears, ADT goes straight up:

Impressive, and Deadly





Quoting Grothar:


Says who????




I embarked on a new career at 51.
I'm 53 now.
Looking at those storm position maps you have been posting,(between comparing ages,)it looks like the center of this storm is going to pass directly over the international airport.
I was in Fiji at the airport a few years ago and it is very close to the shore, as I remember it the runway was probably only a few hundred yards from the beach.
Very flat area just a beach road and a line of palm trees to the sea, probably not more than a few feet above sea level.
Chances are, though we dont want it but the airport is going to get some severe damage , if not devastating, which will no doubt impair any relief aid flights. More bad news.
Good evening everyone.

Great article I found a link to:

NASA sure is confident

They even have a youtube video-form of it, it's alright.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:




I embarked on a new career at 51.
I'm 53 now.


I embarked on my last career, blogging.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
As soon as the eye clears, ADT goes straight up:



well i mean it should hahaha
Quoting Patrap:
The Rainbow Loop shows a well defined Mature Typhoon bearing down on the Islands.

Note the CDO symmetry in the final frames and the eye structure as well.


I just checked out the map and satellite map of Fiji.
Worth taking a look at.
It seems that there are a lot of detached buildings near the shore on the satellite images and that an arc of islands is directly in the path of the eye according to Pats map.The eye is going to go right through that arc of islands.
The main island to the south is about 50 miles across and roughly circular.
I think we are looking at major devastation here.
As I remember Fiji, the coast is fairly flat in the airport area with some low hills to the north east but nothing to slow these kind of winds!
Quoting Patrap:
Typhoon EVAN

Night IR to Day RGB Loop


You mean Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan. Down here in the SW Pacific we call them Cyclones.

Quoting Patrap:
There are now 5 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.


5 days till hope of huricane says begins to return ehh?
Quoting Grothar:
They have got to be getting some serious rain.



funny for me looking at something that (to my perspective) spins backwards.

ive never really tracked a southern hemisphere storm.

I feel like everything flips itself
Going to NYC dec 19-30, any chance of seeing any significant (1 inch) snow? I see some low the 19th and 22-24th. I have no way to interpret these lows since im used to dealing with tropical systems.
what do you think of this?
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/1212 16132505.htm
Quoting PlazaRed:

I just checked out the map and satellite map of Fiji.
Worth taking a look at.
It seems that there are a lot of detached buildings near the shore on the satellite images and that an arc of islands is directly in the path of the eye according to Pats map.The eye is going to go right through that arc of islands.
The main island to the south is about 50 miles across and roughly circular.
I think we are looking at major devastation here.
As I remember Fiji, the coast is fairly flat in the airport area with some low hills to the north east but nothing to slow these kind of winds!


Cyclone Evan knocks out power and bridges

A POWERFUL cyclone ripping through Fiji has caused flooding and structural damage but so far there have been no reports of deaths or serious injuries.

Cyclone Evan earlier killed at least four people in Samoa and 12 more people remain missing there.

Fiji's Permanent Secretary of Information Sharon Smith-Johns said on Monday that the northern parts of Fiji had lost power and that some bridges and roads had been washed out after the cyclone first hit late on Sunday. She said about 3,500 people had evacuated to emergency shelters, and that the nation's advance preparation had helped prevent deaths.

The cyclone is expected to make its way south over the next day. It is expected to affect tourist areas around the town of Nadi but miss the capital Suva.
Quoting Grothar:


Says who????

yes, well, i tried to make it generic.
i do like the ticker on the side! many new gadgets since i last checked in haha
Cyclone Evan:

If Evan does not make an official landfall, the storm would have taken the path closest to making a landfall without actually making one.

154. etxwx
Good evening everyone. That line of storms that came through SE Texas looked a lot more interesting on radar than it did here on the ground. But we did get 1.5 inches of rain out of it - and I'm very grateful for that. Pond levels are up.
Quoting etxwx:
Good evening everyone. That line of storms that came through SE Texas looked a lot more interesting on radar than it did here on the ground. But we did get 1.5 inches of rain out of it - and I'm very grateful for that. Pond levels are up.


The rain really does look bad on radar but it doesnt seem to be too bad
What a monster!

Visible


Radar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I was too mad at the shooter yesterday to say anything about the children so...

RIP to the 27 children and adults who lost their lives in the Newtown, Connecticut shooting yesterday. You guys had your whole lives ahead of you, and all of your dreams were wiped out in mere minutes.

Very sad. It makes me wonder just how many more shootings we need before our second amendment is amended. How many more innocent people must be killed before the second amendment loving, NRA gun nuts give in?

And to those who argue guns don't kill people, I present you this. In China, on the EXACT SAME DAY as the Sandy Hook Elementary School Shooting, a man walked into a Chinese elementary school and stabbed 23 students. Zero deaths have been reported.

Here are the gruesome details compared. Two crazy people, both attacking innocent children on the same day, one event in China, the other in the United States. One with a knife, the other with a gun.





That is the difference between a crazy man with a gun and a crazy man without a gun. There is absolutely no good reason civilians should be able to purchase assault rifles. Absolutely no reason.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I want to end this post by formally apologizing to wxmod, specifically regarding the claim I made Thursday evening that his claims lack evidence. I've honestly become convinced now that weather modification projects are ongoing, and are being researched further. We're stupid enough to do want to do things like that. But I don't believe we can literally shape the skies, as it were.
The problem with wxmod is he posts satellite images and then automatically connects them to weather modification. He'll post a satellite image containing a dozen "chemtrails" (actually contrails) and claim it is active weather modification. The reality is contrails are a byproduct of mass transportation, whether it be by plane or boat.

Or, he'll post the radar image of rain falling in the desert and claim that it is raining because of weather modification. It's ridiculous.
Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE FOR FIJI ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 11:59am on Monday the 17th of December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP,
WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND INTERIOR OF
VITI LEVU .
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU
AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF
VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND
NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [945HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17 DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 6 EAST OR ABOUT 35 KM SOUTH OF
YASAWA-I-RARA AND ABOUT 195 KM SOUTHWEST OF LABASA AND ABOUT 85 KM
NORTH OF NADI AT MIDDAY TODAY.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 KM/HR.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS
UPTO 185 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 190 KM
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 90 KM SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 325 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR 215
KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT OR ABOUT 190 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
KADAVU MIDDAY TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO
SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO
185 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR. HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE BUA PROVINCE , THE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 110
KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS,
NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY
SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 80 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 55 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
85 KM/HR. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND VERY HIGH
SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES FROM
CENTRE. ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY
SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Fiji on Severe Tropical Cyclone
Evan will be issued at or around 03:00pm today.
Quoting Ameister12:
What a monster!

Visible


Radar


Evan is undoubtedly a monster storm. By the way, the radar you posted was slightly old. Here is the other updated radar:

Any way you measure it, when the eye-wall makes contact with the coast, its safe to say 'land-fall' has occurred. Nadi is getting the worst of Evan at this time, thoughts to all there during this impact stay safe & come thru today ok. At least it is daylight for them during this close passage
Quoting Civicane49:


Evan is undoubtedly a monster storm. By the way, the radar you posted was slightly old. Here is the other updated radar:


Yeah, It is kinda old.

Here's another radar image that's up to date. Evan is about to make landfall very soon.
I kneel down on one knee this evening of great thanks, as I received 2.02" of rain today...that is the first significant rainfall on a given day since June 7th where 1.85" of rain fell that day at my location.

(There were other days of around 1.5" but the 1.85" is the only closest amount to today's amount, so you had to go back to June which was the closest amount to 2 inches.)

It would be the middle of May where over 5" fell, since a major rain event.
As TX was coming out of drought this year, in the end we succumbed to drought at all locations, as we are behind for the yearly total.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Very sad. It makes me wonder just how many more shootings we need before our second amendment is amended. How many more innocent people must be killed before the second amendment loving, NRA gun nuts give in?

There is absolutely no good reason civilians should be able to purchase assault rifles. Absolutely no reason.

And to those who argue guns don't kill people, I present you this. In China, on the EXACT SAME DAY as the Sandy Hook Elementary School Shooting, a man walked into a Chinese elementary school and stabbed 23 students. Zero deaths have been reported.

That is the difference between a crazy man with a gun and a crazy man without a gun.


Guns don't kill people. It's the crazy nut-cases that pull the trigger that kill people. We have very strong gun laws down here, especially after the Port Arthur massacre when 35 adults and children were murdered by a very sick, crazy and twisted man.

No matter how tight gun laws are, people will get there hands on a gun and if they have a "bad" part in there brain, they will use them for bad.
Quoting superpete:
Any way you measure it, when the eye-wall makes contact with the coast, its safe to say 'land-fall' has occurred. Nadi is getting the worst of Evan at this time, thoughts to all there during this impact stay safe & come thru today ok. At least it is daylight for them during this close passage

There is about 2000 Australian tourists in Fiji. they were transferred to evacuation centres on the main islands. I have a friend in Nadi, I have lost contact with them. I will try to make contact later tonight or tomorrow morning once Evan has moved away.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Guns don't kill people. It's the crazy nut-cases that pull the trigger that kill people. We have very strong gun laws down here, especially after the Port Arthur massacre when 35 adults and children were murdered by a very sick, crazy and twisted man.

No matter how tight gun laws are, people will get there hands on a gun and if they have a "bad" part in there brain, they will use them for bad.

Exactly.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Guns don't kill people. It's the crazy nut-cases that pull the trigger that kill people. We have very strong gun laws down here, especially after the Port Arthur massacre when 35 adults and children were murdered by a very sick, crazy and twisted man.

No matter how tight gun laws are, people will get there hands on a gun and if they have a "bad" part in there brain, they will use them for bad.
Not at all true, Aussie. Guns can accidentally go off and kill people. Happened just over a week ago in Pittsburgh when a 7 year old was killed by a handgun that accidentally went off.

Also, you, along with all the other gun nuts (not saying you are a gun nut though), seem to miss the point. The point is if we remove the tools they use to kill people, it would be much harder for them to achieve mass murder.
Evan's going in for the kill:
172. etxwx
Speaking of drought, farming, and adaptability:

India tests ways to help farmers cope with climate change
By Vaishnavi Chandrashekhar, via CSM / December 7, 2012

Nagenahalli, India
Excerpt: Like his father, Venkatappah has spent his life growing rice and vegetables on two acres of land in this village three hours from Bangalore. Harvesting a good crop from these dry, rocky slopes has become tougher in recent years as the monsoon rains have become more erratic.

Rainfall was poor last year, and worse this past summer. “There was a lot of rain in a few days, then there was nothing for a long time,” says Mr. Venkatappah, who uses only one name.

This year, however, he hoped that a new government project would help him avert the worst. With the aid of officials, Venkatappah dug ponds upland to catch and store rainwater, scooped trenches and bunds around his fields to help conserve the run-off, and diversified his crops to lower his risks.

A number of new initiatives in India are testing ways to help farmers like Venkatappah cope with changing weather as concerns about climate change bring fresh urgency – and funding – to longstanding challenges in sustainable agriculture.

The biggest of these efforts is the National Initiative for Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA), a $63-million government pilot program covering 130 villages including Nagenahalli. Like the other projects, it promotes water and soil conservation and tries to improve access to better seeds and infrastructure as well as modern weather and crop data.

Complete article can be found here.
The point is that people kill other people much more easily and effectively with guns. Remove guns from the equation and it becomes much harder for incidents like the Sandy Hook massacre to occur. Clearly stricter gun laws need to be in place.

Anyone who disagrees with this is a fool.
The eye can still be seen on the bottom left of the imagery. However, it is not that ragged as everyone might think it is. If you look at the radar imagery, the center of the imagery shows clearer pixels while the outer image shows less clear pixels or less details. Like Jedkins said, the Fiji weather radar is clearly primordial. Evan is very close to make landfall on Fiji.

Pretty nasty looking storm heading in the general direction of New Orleans, could get a severe thunderstorm warning soon:

Quoting TomTaylor:
The point is that people kill other people much more easily and effectively with guns. Remove guns from the equation and it becomes much harder for incidents like the Sandy Hook massacre to occur.

Anyone who disagrees with this is a fool.

That's the thing though. You can't remove guns just like that or make sure no criminal has them. There are thousands upon thousands of guns sold each year. And if stricter gun control laws are put in place, there will be a huge uproar over it and I doubt it'd get far.

Plus, gun control is definitely NOT at the top of the United States' list of things to worry about right now.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Not at all true, Aussie. Guns can accidentally go off and kill people. Happened just over a week ago in Pittsburgh when a 7 year old was killed by a handgun that accidentally went off.

Also, you, along with all the other gun nuts (not saying you are a gun nut though), seem to miss the point. The point is if we remove the tools they use to kill people, it would be much harder for them to achieve mass murder.

People that want to hurt many people will just find other ways. Like petrol or gas. Better gun control and background and mental/phycological checks and proper storing of gun are needed.

I have never heard of a gun going off by it's self.

I am way from being a gun nut. I have never shot a gun and I have no intention or need to shoot one.
Quoting Civicane49:
The eye can still be seen on the bottom left of the imagery. However, it is not that ragged as everyone might think it is. If you look at the radar imagery, the center of the imagery shows clearer pixels while the outer image shows less clear pixels or less details. Like Jedkins said, the Fiji weather radar is clearly primordial. Evan is very close to make landfall on Fiji.



I think you'll find that the amount of rainfall is causing a distortion of the eye. It happens when systems are close to the radar.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's the thing though. You can't remove guns just like that or make sure no criminal has them. There are thousands upon thousands of guns sold each year. And if stricter gun control laws are put in place, there will be a huge uproar over it and I doubt it'd get far.

Plus, gun control is definitely NOT at the top of the United States' list of things to worry about right now.
I didn't mean it in the literal sense. Obviously, we can't suddenly remove millions of guns from the face of the earth. The point is if we had stricter gun laws, it would be harder for an individual to acquire a gun, and particularly, a powerful assault rifle capable of mowing down a classroom full of students.


Also, the fact that the cold blooded killing of 28 innocent people is not a concern for the United States is really just a reflection of our society today. Pretty sad what we truly value...wars, oil, political power, having the top economy.
Baseball bats are number one on the FBI's list of top-used assault weapons. I guess we should get rid of those too because a few people have violent tendencies.
Quoting AussieStorm:

People that want to hurt many people will just find other ways. Like petrol or gas. Better gun control and background and mental/phycological checks and proper storing of gun are needed.

I have never heard of a gun going off by it's self.
Well now you've heard of it.

And I'm glad you agree stricter laws are needed.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I didn't mean it in the literal sense. Obviously, we can't suddenly remove millions of guns from the face of the earth. The point is if we had stricter gun laws, it would be harder for an individual to acquire a gun, and particularly, a powerful assault rifle capable of mowing down a classroom full of students.


Also, the fact that the cold blooded killing of 28 innocent people is not a concern for the United States is really just a reflection of our society today. Pretty sad what we truly value...wars, oil, political power, having the top economy.

It's not about having the top economy, it's about having a good economy at all. If you haven't noticed, the US is approaching the fiscal cliff.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Baseball bats are number one on the FBI's list of top-used assault weapons. I guess we should get rid of those too because a few people have violent tendencies.
Assault is not the same as the killing of 28 innocent people. The fact that you'd compare the two is an insult to the victims of the event.

Anyway, as I will continue to say, clearly stricter gun laws are needed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Baseball bats are number one on the FBI's list of top-used assault weapons. I guess we should get rid of those too because a few people have violent tendencies.

A baseball bat is generally not capable of killing 26 people in a matter of a minute or two, while a gun is very much capable of that. We don't need to be making it any easier on these violent people than we should be. The only people who should be allowed to own guns are law enforcement officers for obvious reasons.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Assault is not the same as the killing of 28 innocent people. Quit distracting from the point.

As I will continue to say, clearly stricter gun laws are needed.

all forms of transport kill people. should we ban them. It would make the AGW/CC people happy.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not about having the top economy, it's about having a good economy at all. If you haven't noticed, the US is approaching the fiscal cliff.
And in case you haven't noticed, we still have the largest economy in the world. Link.

Obviously it's not the healthiest, and we have to work out the problems, but that doesn't mean we can't also make stricter gun laws.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

A baseball bat is generally not capable of killing 26 people in a matter of a minute or two, while a gun is very much capable of that. We don't need to be making it any easier on these violent people than we should be. The only people who should be allowed to own guns are law enforcement officers for obvious reasons.

In a perfect world, I would agree. But you and I both know that's not happening. Criminals will still find easy access to gun no matter the strength of the gun laws in place.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Baseball bats are number one on the FBI's list of top-used assault weapons. I guess we should get rid of those too because a few people have violent tendencies.


How many people have been killed by a baseball bat versus the number killed by a gun? How many people have been killed in a single incident by a baseball bat versus a gun? Perspective, lads, perspective!
Quoting AussieStorm:

all forms of transport kill people. should we ban them. It would make the AGW/CC people happy.
Try and be rational, Aussie.

I'm not going to debate with an irrational person.
Anyways...

Evan is now a 145 mph Category 4-equivalent cyclone.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In a perfect world, I would agree. But you and I both know that's not happening. Criminals will still find easy access to gun no matter the strength of the gun laws in place.


Other countries manage, somehow, to keep the gun deaths down. One of the ways is to make the ownership of guns in general, and assault-type weapons in particular, difficult.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In a perfect world, I would agree. But you and I both know that's not happening. Criminals will still find easy access to gun no matter the strength of the gun laws in place.
Not true at all. That is your assumption. The fact is it would be harder to get a gun if we had stricter laws for it.

People could still get guns, but it would be harder. If it is harder to get, massacres like the Sandy Hook incident, will be less likely to occur. That is the point.
Quoting Bielle:


How many people have been killed by a baseball bat versus the number killed by a gun? How many people have been killed in a single incident by a baseball bat versus a gun? Perspective, lads, perspective!

It doesn't matter how many less people baseball bats kill compared to gun. You guys want tighter gun laws in order to prevent a criminal from getting his/her hands on one as easily to prevent lives from being lost, regardless of the number. According to you and Tom's logic, if a select few people use a gun to kill a group of people, it should be banned or harder to gain access to. The same should go for the baseball bat by that logic.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Try and be rational, Aussie.

I'm not going to debate with an irrational person.

your society there has gun ownership interwoven in it's DNA. Here in Australia it is different but it's becoming more like your country every year.

I'm out, taking my wife to an eye appointment. Back later.
_______________________________________________

Cyclone Evan bears down on Fiji's north.

More than 3,500 people are sheltering in evacuation centres as Cyclone Evan bears down on Fiji's northern islands.

The storm has already caused widespread damage in Samoa, claiming at least four lives.



Fiji's Meteorological Office says at 9am local time the centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone C Evan was located about 30km due east of Yasawa i Ra island.

It is moving southwest by southerly at 22 kilometres an hour, and is expected to be about 60km west of Nadi around 8pm tonight.



The Met Office says the Yasawa and Mamanuca, and the west of Viti Levu will feel the worst of the cyclone, warning of hurricane force winds of 185 kilometres an hour, with gusts up to 270 kilometres an hour.

Strong wind warnings are in force for the whole country and an alert for destructive seas has also been issued.

Amit Singh has told Radio Australia's program the storm remains a category 4.



"As long as it stays in Fiji water, it will remain a category 4, and it moves further south it will decrease in intensity as it meets with the sea surface temperature," he said.



Storm surges of over 4 metres are likely with significant sea flooding likely later today along the north and western Viti Levu coast



Fiji's Ministry of Information says more than 3,500 evacuees are in centres in the country's north, with hundreds also evacuated in the west and south.

It says there have been reports of damage to property and low-lying areas have been inundated.

Electricity is off in Labasa, Savusavu, Rakiraki and parts of Tavua and Naitasiri, and some bridges and roads in the countries north have been washed out.



Air Pacific, Jetstar and Pacific Sun have cancelled all flights out of Fiji on Monday, and Fiji's Reserve Bank Governor has ordered all commercial banks closed until further notice.

Non-essential public servants have also been sent home.

Evan is 480 kilometres wide and packing winds of 230 kilometres per hour, making it the strongest cyclone to threaten the country in 20 years.

Foreign help

The Australian and New Zealand Governments say they are closely monitoring the movement of Cyclone Evan.



Both countries say that their concern is for the safety of its citizens in Fiji, as well as the welfare of all Fijians.

Canberra and Wellington say they are prepared to assist Fiji in all areas and remain on standby.

Emergency services in Fiji are preparing for the worst, while Fiji's Navy has urged sea farers not to travel out to sea during disasters.

Fijians living in low-lying areas have been urged to move to evacuation centres on higher ground.



Disaster management

Fiji's interim Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama on Sunday met with officials in Suva to discuss all aspects of disaster management before and after the cyclone.

Mr Bainimarama has urged public servants in the northern and western division to remain at home and wait further instructions.



"Because this is the festive season, I ask you to consider cancelling social events and to act responsibly, all of us need a clear mind for what is bearing down on us," he said.

"Only those working in essential services should be at work and they should liaise closely with their departments on this."

Mr Bainimarama says the government is coordinating the provision of emergency supplies, including food and water to areas that are likely to be affected.

"I cannot stress how serious this is, every Fijian will be affected."



Fiji's Permanent Secretary for Information, Sharon Smith-Johns, says many people have heeded the message and fled to higher ground.

"There are people that have already taken precautions. They know that they live in flood prone areas and they're moving to higher ground or moving in with relatives, so there is quite a lot of movement around Suva...and in the rural areas."

Evacuations

More than 20 evacuation centres have been set up in northern areas of Fiji, with centres also set up in the country's western division.

"We are advising people to move to high ground, those who are living in lower-lying areas," Asesela Biuviti of the national disaster management office said.

People on the island of Vanua Levu, and the smaller island groups are already heading to emergency centres

The government says troops in all parts of the country are ready to help with recovery assistance and search and rescue operations.



Ms Sharon Smith-Johns says the government feared Evan could be as devastating as Cyclone Kina which killed 23 people and left thousands homeless in 1993.

"This is going to be an extremely bad cyclone to hit us and probably the worse that we've seen since Cyclone Kina.

"It will be quite destructive. We've seen what's happened in Samoa and all we can do is be prepared here lucky we've had a week's notice of this," she said.

"All the agencies have been deployed, emergency services on standby, evacuation centres are open, rations have gone out.

The cyclone appears to have bypassed northern Tonga, where it was expected to bring gale force winds and heavy rain to the country's northern islands.


- ABC

© ABC 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

your society there has gun ownership interwoven in it's DNA. Here in Australia it is different but it's becoming more like your country every year.
I know, it's sad.

Sorry to hear your country is becoming more like ours in that sense.
I'm done having an argument over something we shouldn't even be discussing here to begin with.

Anybody who wants to show support for the 26 children and staff killed at Sandy Hook Elementary School, wear green and white tomorrow. Those were the school colors.
With the eye cleared out, ADT numbers skyrocketed:

Evan definitely jogged west in the last hour or so. It looked for sure that it was going to make landfall on the larger island but that doesn't look like it's gonna happen now:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It doesn't matter how many less people baseball bats kill compared to gun. You guys want tighter gun laws in order to prevent a criminal from getting his/her hands on one as easily to prevent lives from being lost, regardless of the number. According to you and Tom's logic, if a select few people use a gun to kill a group of people, it should be banned or harder to gain access to. The same should go for the baseball bat by that logic.

Anything can be used as a weapon. Guns just happen to be one of our most effective weapons. Hundreds of times more effective than a bat. Since guns are so much more lethal, it is certainly warranted that we place stronger laws on gun control.

End of discussion, bat argument is out (pun intended). Try again if you'd like, but the arguments for gun control far outweigh the arguments against gun control.
I always though it was interesting that I can buy an assault weapon but not park on the wrong side of the street.

I'm just glad they don't have speed limits and stop signs, street lights and guard rails, since, as long as there is the threat of death by recklessness driving that in itself is enough to keep people totally in line. Cars don't kill people, reckless people kill people.

But enough off topic chit chat, how bout some on tropic chit chat? How is Evan doing?


Quoting Bielle:


How many people have been killed by a baseball bat versus the number killed by a gun? How many people have been killed in a single incident by a baseball bat versus a gun? Perspective, lads, perspective!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Evan definitely jogged west in the last hour or so. It looked for sure that it was going to make landfall on the larger island but that doesn't look like it's gonna happen now:



I agree. It appears that it's now unlikely that Evan is going to make landfall on the large island of Fiji due to its abrupt westward movement. Nevertheless, the cyclone will continue to bring heavy rain and strong winds to Fiji.
Quoting snotly:
I always though it was interesting that I can buy an assault weapon but not park on the wrong side of the street.

I'm just glad they don't have speed limits and stop signs, street lights and guard rails, since, as long as there is the threat of death by recklessness driving that in itself is enough to keep people totally in line. Cars don't kill people, reckless people kill people.
Miss-read your post, sorry. I agree.
Quoting Civicane49:


I agree. It appears that it's now unlikely that Evan is going to make landfall on the large island of Fiji due to its abrupt westward movement. Nevertheless, the cyclone will continue to bring heavy rain and strong winds to Fiji.
However, more of the coast will now get the strongest SE quadrant. BTW, I will refrain from making my views on the gun control discussion here. Not the time and place, IMO, with a major cyclone impacting inhabited land areas.
Quoting TomTaylor:

Anything can be used as a weapon. Guns just happen to be one of our most effective weapons. Hundreds of times more effective than a bat. Since guns are so much more lethal, it is certainly warranted that we place stronger laws on gun control.

End of discussion, bat argument is out (pun intended). Try again if you'd like, but the arguments for gun control far outweigh the arguments against gun control.



I agree that we need stricter gun control laws. If the gun was designed t o kill a lot of people very quickly, civilians don't need it.

We also need to stop the public love-hate fest with those who commit mass murder. If we would take focus away from who did this awful deed, to mourning those lost, maybe the next monster will off himself in private instead of creating a huge media frenzy.

Washi, I don't think we will see snow anytime soon. It was rainy here today, but topped out at 50. We have not seen winter weather in December for several years.
Quoting goosegirl1:



I agree that we need stricter gun control laws. If the gun was designed t o kill a lot of people very quickly, civilians don't need it.

We also need to stop the public love-hate fest with those who commit mass murder. If we would take focus away from who did this awful deed, to mourning those lost, maybe the next monster will off himself in private instead of creating a huge media frenzy.
That's a good point.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF UPSTATE NY...NRN CT...MUCH OF
VT...WRN/CNTRL MA...SWRN/W-CNTRL NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 170119Z - 170645Z

SUMMARY...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 04Z. FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05
INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1
IN/HR MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL/ERN VT INTO W-CNTRL NH AFTER 10Z.

DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES
DEPICT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE ERN-CONUS BAROCLINIC LEAF
STRUCTURE ADVANCING NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER-LEVEL...QUASI-HORIZONTALLY COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL BOTH /1/ MAINTAIN A MODEST WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND /2/ STIMULATE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NY/NJ
COAST. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 04Z...AS AFFIRMED BY
CONSENSUS AMONGST HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WA/NRN ORE CASCADES AND OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN WA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 162312Z - 170345Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF SNOW WITH RATES POTENTIALLY REACHING 1 IN/HR...
AND PERHAPS 2 IN/HR OVER THE CASCADES AND OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...WILL
AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT A COMPACT -- THOUGH SUBTLY
AMPLIFYING -- SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 43N TO 48N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W
AS OF 2245Z. DCVA/ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE IS BEING
AUGMENTED BY THE ASCENDING BRANCH OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 150-160-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST. THE LOWER-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT PER THE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES ACCORDING TO PORTLAND/SEATTLE VWP DATA. AS SUCH...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND THE
WA/NRN ORE CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING
LOCATIONS FARTHER E AFTER 00Z-01Z. SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 1 IN/HR
WILL BE LIKELY...WITH RATES REACHING 2 IN/HR WHERE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND WA/NRN
ORE CASCADES. WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE...RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 3000 FT TO THE
W OF THE WA/NRN ORE CASCADES...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
RELATIVELY WARMER/ABOVE-FREEZING PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS.
Quoting Civicane49:
Dang, that is about as close to landfall as ya can get without the center of the eye crossing the coast. Ugly for Fiji.
Four days nine hours and 41 minutes to the winter soltice.

Party on. ;>)
Quoting goosegirl1:



I agree that we need stricter gun control laws. If the gun was designed t o kill a lot of people very quickly, civilians don't need it.

We also need to stop the public love-hate fest with those who commit mass murder. If we would take focus away from who did this awful deed, to mourning those lost, maybe the next monster will off himself in private instead of creating a huge media.


I too agree with you but there is something we all are missing here in this tragic Loss, and that is where he got the guns from. Information tells us that his mom had them and he took them after she was killed. He was not old enough to buy them and I donot believe that even his own father knew that he was capable of such a killing..... Just saying....
Quoting TomTaylor:
Very sad. It makes me wonder just how many more shootings we need before our second amendment is amended. How many more innocent people must be killed before the second amendment loving, NRA gun nuts give in?

And to those who argue guns don't kill people, I present you this. In China, on the EXACT SAME DAY as the Sandy Hook Elementary School Shooting, a man walked into a Chinese elementary school and stabbed 23 students. Zero deaths have been reported.

Here are the gruesome details compared. Two crazy people, both attacking innocent children on the same day, one event in China, the other in the United States. One with a knife, the other with a gun.





That is the difference between a crazy man with a gun and a crazy man without a gun. There is absolutely no good reason civilians should be able to purchase assault rifles. Absolutely no reason.
What makes it an assault rifle. Is it how it looks


Link for enlarged image.
Evan is making landfall.
I'm not sure whether it made an official landfall or not:

Evan is making landfall.

The center of Evan is riding right along the coast, possibly making landfall.

NHC's glossary:

Landfall
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike.
yes indeed Evan is making landfall
Maybe not.

The rules and definitions sometimes run amok at the NHC. Close counts with hand grenades and cyclones.
Landfall?

227. maeko
I'm worried for my friend that lives in the Capitol of Fiji. Is there any news/reports from impact? Does anybody have any information?
News is usually slow to filter out of an area taking such a hit. I would also be wary of the truthfulness of reports on twitter, etc. unless you can verify that the source is reliable. Definitely gives an anxious feeling.
Vuda Point, Fiji:



Unbelievable rate of rainfall.
Update: 1:40PM RAKIRAKI bore the full brunt of Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan earlier today as it passed through towards the Yasawa Group.

Heavy rain and strong winds are still being experienced in the district and Rakiraki Town is also closed for business from the morning.

The Vaileka River has burst its banks and water is flowing into the town.

Police officers and firemen are on standby to assist people in need of help at the height of the cyclone
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 17.2S 177.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection persistent in past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Eye visible in radar and visible/infrared imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with MG eye in W surround

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 18.6S 176.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.0S 176.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.3S 176.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Chicago's snow-less streak looks to end on Friday.



Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FOUR FOR FIJI ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 2:09pm on Monday the 17th of December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP,
WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND INTERIOR OF
VITI LEVU AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VATULELE.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI
LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [945HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 3 EAST OR ABOUT 95 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 30 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI AT MIDDAY AND ABOUT 140 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA AT 3PM TODAY.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS
CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UPTO 185 KM/HR
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 160 KM
SOUTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 215 KM WEST-SOUTWEST OF SUVA AT 3AM
TOMORROW AND 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 245 KM SOUTHWEST
OF KADAVU AT 3PM TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO
SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO
185 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR. HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE BUA PROVINCE , THE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU AND VATULELE:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 110
KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS,
KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 80 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 55 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
85 KM/HR. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS.A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND VERY HIGH
SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES FROM
CENTRE . ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY
SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Fiji on Severe Tropical Cyclone
Evan will be issued at or around 05:00pm today.
Quoting Civicane49:


Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FOUR FOR FIJI ON SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 2:09pm on Monday the 17th of December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP,
WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND INTERIOR OF
VITI LEVU AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VATULELE.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI
LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [945HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 3 EAST OR ABOUT 95 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 30 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI AT MIDDAY AND ABOUT 140 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA AT 3PM TODAY.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 18 KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS
CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UPTO 185 KM/HR
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 160 KM
SOUTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 215 KM WEST-SOUTWEST OF SUVA AT 3AM
TOMORROW AND 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI OR ABOUT 245 KM SOUTHWEST
OF KADAVU AT 3PM TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO
SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO
185 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 270 KM/HR. HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE BUA PROVINCE , THE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU AND VATULELE:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 110
KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS,
KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 80 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 55 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
85 KM/HR. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL
AREAS.A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND VERY HIGH
SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO ABOUT 100 NAUTICAL MILES FROM
CENTRE . ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY
SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Fiji on Severe Tropical Cyclone
Evan will be issued at or around 05:00pm today.


How come they call it Hurricane warning and not Cyclone warning???
The continuing tragedy of mass shootings is not to be unexpected. There are individuals that have significant psychological problems, some of whom simply go off the deep end. Who these individuals are cannot be known with any certainty. Therefore, these tragedies will continue as they have since day one. To think otherwise is not rational. Equally not rational is the concept of the many gun free zones. Where do these tragedies occur – in gun free zones – schools, churches, movie theaters, malls. Court houses are gun free zones for obvious reasons but they are not gun free. Many court house personnel are armed. There have not been many mass killing in a gun shop (many personnel are armed whether you see the gun or not), a police station (obviously), a gun show (which may have a thousand or more folks in one confined space). Someone may start shooting in any location but they are quickly neutralized if other folks are armed. The situation does not end up as a mass killing. Pilots can be armed. Prior to 9/11, that was not the case. It took 9/11 to make folks see that guns can and do prevent bad things from happening. Yes, bad things can happen with guns, but those situations are due to criminals being armed (there are laws against this), gun safety rules not being followed in general, and in the case of accidental child or adult shootings, lack of foresight or lack of concern as to the consequences of not securing or treating a weapon properly.

When I pick up my grandchildren from school, I leave my concealed carry weapon at home, not because of any danger to the children, but because of the laws which prevent me from entering the school with the weapon. I do not leave it in the car because the car can be stolen along with the weapon. I have on many more than one occasion, not gone into a store because on the no guns allowed sign – a sale lost to that business.

The horrible heart wrenching tragedy of last Friday may have been significantly moderated or even prevented if certain teachers had been armed. There appears to have been sufficient time from the initial confrontation with the staff to the killing of the children to have allowed a trained, armed staff member to intervene and do what needed to be done. That entire school population was as if they were fish in a barrel, no matter it be a grade school, high school or a university. The police responded within minutes but they were needed in seconds. Not their fault, their actions were probably better than the best that they could do.

I for one would feel less fretful knowing that there were teachers in my grandchildren’s schools who were armed and trained to use their weapons.
Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..







3 and 6 are dumb
Quoting lahcuts:
The continuing tragedy of mass shootings is not to be unexpected. There are individuals that have significant psychological problems, some of whom simply go off the deep end. Who these individuals are cannot be known with any certainty. Therefore, these tragedies will continue as they have since day one. To think otherwise is not rational. Equally not rational is the concept of the many gun free zones. Where do these tragedies occur – in gun free zones – schools, churches, movie theaters, malls. Court houses are gun free zones for obvious reasons but they are not gun free. Many court house personnel are armed. There have not been many mass killing in a gun shop (many personnel are armed whether you see the gun or not), a police station (obviously), a gun show (which may have a thousand or more folks in one confined space). Someone may start shooting in any location but they are quickly neutralized if other folks are armed. The situation does not end up as a mass killing. Pilots can be armed. Prior to 9/11, that was not the case. It took 9/11 to make folks see that guns can and do prevent bad things from happening. Yes, bad things can happen with guns, but those situations are due to criminals being armed (there are laws against this), gun safety rules not being followed in general, and in the case of accidental child or adult shootings, lack of foresight or lack of concern as to the consequences of not securing or treating a weapon properly.

When I pick up my grandchildren from school, I leave my concealed carry weapon at home, not because of any danger to the children, but because of the laws which prevent me from entering the school with the weapon. I do not leave it in the car because the car can be stolen along with the weapon. I have on many more than one occasion, not gone into a store because on the no guns allowed sign – a sale lost to that business.

The horrible heart wrenching tragedy of last Friday may have been significantly moderated or even prevented if certain teachers had been armed. There appears to have been sufficient time from the initial confrontation with the staff to the killing of the children to have allowed a trained, armed staff member to intervene and do what needed to be done. That entire school population was as if they were fish in a barrel, no matter it be a grade school, high school or a university. The police responded within minutes but they were needed in seconds. Not their fault, their actions were probably better than the best that they could do.

I for one would feel less fretful knowing that there were teachers in my grandchildren’s schools who were armed and trained to use their weapons.

You relayed my thoughts almost exactly.
Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..







See my new blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RTSplayer/show.h tml

It is unlikely that anything except number 4 on your list could be accomplished, and even that is highly unlikely to be anything more than a limp-wristed crap law that can't actually deal with the nature of evil.

There's too many "rights," and Americans are either too naive or too willingly blind to deal with the issues, and I vote for the later, not the former.

All I'm saying for now.

Read the blog, if you like, and you'll see what I mean.

"Know thy enemy"

"Keep your friends close and your enemies even closer."
Quoting lahcuts:
The continuing tragedy of mass shootings is not to be unexpected. There are individuals that have significant psychological problems, some of whom simply go off the deep end. Who these individuals are cannot be known with any certainty. Therefore, these tragedies will continue as they have since day one. To think otherwise is not rational. Equally not rational is the concept of the many gun free zones. Where do these tragedies occur %u2013 in gun free zones %u2013 schools, churches, movie theaters, malls. Court houses are gun free zones for obvious reasons but they are not gun free. Many court house personnel are armed. There have not been many mass killing in a gun shop (many personnel are armed whether you see the gun or not), a police station (obviously), a gun show (which may have a thousand or more folks in one confined space). Someone may start shooting in any location but they are quickly neutralized if other folks are armed. The situation does not end up as a mass killing. Pilots can be armed. Prior to 9/11, that was not the case. It took 9/11 to make folks see that guns can and do prevent bad things from happening. Yes, bad things can happen with guns, but those situations are due to criminals being armed (there are laws against this), gun safety rules not being followed in general, and in the case of accidental child or adult shootings, lack of foresight or lack of concern as to the consequences of not securing or treating a weapon properly.

When I pick up my grandchildren from school, I leave my concealed carry weapon at home, not because of any danger to the children, but because of the laws which prevent me from entering the school with the weapon. I do not leave it in the car because the car can be stolen along with the weapon. I have on many more than one occasion, not gone into a store because on the no guns allowed sign %u2013 a sale lost to that business.

The horrible heart wrenching tragedy of last Friday may have been significantly moderated or even prevented if certain teachers had been armed. There appears to have been sufficient time from the initial confrontation with the staff to the killing of the children to have allowed a trained, armed staff member to intervene and do what needed to be done. That entire school population was as if they were fish in a barrel, no matter it be a grade school, high school or a university. The police responded within minutes but they were needed in seconds. Not their fault, their actions were probably better than the best that they could do.

I for one would feel less fretful knowing that there were teachers in my grandchildren%u2019s schools who were armed and trained to use their weapons.
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?

Following that logic, then, imagine what a safe world we'd live in if every person were armed! Every teacher and student; every theatergoer; every mall shopper, office worker, and mail sorter! Imagine each and every one of them packing heat, ready to draw at a moment's notice and take out The Bad Guy! Yes! That would work! Look at places like Syria and Somalia and Afghanistan and Nigeria! Just about every man, woman, and child has an AK-47--and when's the last time you read about any gun violence happening there?!
Quoting maeko:
I'm worried for my friend that lives in the Capitol of Fiji. Is there any news/reports from impact? Does anybody have any information?


Thousands flee Cyclone Evan in Fiji

THOUSANDS of people have fled to evacuation centres in Fiji as authorities warn to "prepare for the worst" from a powerful category four cyclone bearing down on the Pacific nation.

Power outages and flooding were reported on the main island of Viti Levu as Tropical Cyclone Evan approached, with all flights to and from Fiji cancelled as a precaution.

At least four people were killed when the cyclone slammed into neighbouring Samoa late last week and the Fiji government said it was taking no chances, shifting tourists and residents from low-lying areas.

"Members of the public are advised to prepare for the worst," spokeswoman Sharon Smith-Johns said, adding that 3,500 people were sheltering in evacuation centres and the number was expected to increase.

Officials said storm warnings were in effect for the entire nation and all non-essential public servants had been told to stay at home but there were no reports of injuries or deaths.
They said the category four cyclone was about 85km off Nadi, site of the main international airport, and could intensify as it approaches the coast, packing winds of 270km/h.

It is expected to skirt Nadi, which was swamped by another cyclone that killed five people in April, and head southwest, generating 12 metre swells which could exacerbate flooding at high tide at 10pm (2000 AEDT) .

The cyclone is thought to be the strongest to threaten Fiji since Cyclone Kina, which killed 23 people and left thousands homeless in 1993.

Relief agencies were still assessing damage to remote islands in Samoa, where the New Zealand Rescue Co-ordination Centre is overseeing a search for three boats carrying eight men that failed to return from fishing trips Friday.

Rescue coordinator Geoff Lunt said there had been no sighting of the boats and debris from the cyclone was creating difficult search conditions.

"There is a lot of flotsam in the ocean which makes the visual search quite challenging but the aircraft will be coordinating their efforts to ensure the search area is thoroughly covered," he said.
Quoting Neapolitan:
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?

Guns for teachers in order to protect themselves and their students. The outcome would have entirely different had the teachers had something to defend themselves with.

Somehow I knew we'd get back to this topic. :S
Evan runs bulk carrier aground
Fiji Times
Update: 2:23PM A BULK carrier tried to fight ferocious winds whipped up by Cyclone Evan but lost and ran aground on the edge of the reef in the Suva Harbour.

The Starford, believed to be carrying equipment for the China First Railway Group constructing the Nabouwalu highway, dragged its anchor at 11.30am and was pushed on to the reef close to the entrance of the harbour.

Its agent, Carpenters Shipping, was discussing with the Chinese company on what to do to refloat the ship.


The bulk carrier, Starford, aground near the reef in Suva as strong winds lash the capital. Picture: JOHNATHAN SMITH
Whether you have a gun or not. Very few ppl will actually run into hell, most including a lot of you would not come out and join a fire fight. You can say you will but until you have been in a situation where your life could end any second you do not know what you are talking about or what you would do.

I would bet a lot of cash that 80 to 90 percent of you would try and get away instead of going to a very possible death.
Quoting Neapolitan:
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?
Quoting Neapolitan:
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?


Why do we even need guns in the first place?
To protect us from other guns?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Guns for teachers in order to protect themselves and their students. The outcome would have entirely different had the teachers had something to defend themselves with.

But then there could be one teacher that loses it with a student and shoots them. Guns don't belong in schools. Better, tighter gun controls is what is needed. I heard on the radio if you buy a gun there from a gun shop you wait 10 days for the background checks to be done, but if you buy a guy at a gun show, no checks are done.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Guns for teachers in order to protect themselves and their students. The outcome would have entirely different had the teachers had something to defend themselves with.

In Michigan a bill was just passed in the legislative that allows trained individuals to carry a concealed weapon in schools and churches and other gun-free zones. This bill is going to Governor Snyder for signing at some point in time(it might have already been signed, I don't know).
Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Guns for teachers in order to protect themselves and their students. The outcome would have entirely different had the teachers had something to defend themselves with.
Watch some police shootout dashcam videos on YouTube. One common thing you'll notice is that, when confronted with the barrel of a gun pointed at them, even the most well-trained, highly-experienced law enforcement officer on the planet has a few moments of terror-filled panic before remembering to unholster their weapon, turn off the safety, aim, and fire. And these, mind you, are people who aren't just trained, but are prepared for the possibility that they could be shot at. I contend that there is no way someone such as, say, a first-grade teacher facing an armored, masked, assault rifle-toting gunman is going to have both the composure and the time to do anything.

More guns are the answer to gun violence like more cigarettes are the cure for lung cancer.
Quoting nymore:
Whether you have a gun or not. Very few ppl will actually run into hell, most including a lot of you would not come out and join a fire fight. You can say you will but until you have been in a situation where your life could end any second you do not know what you are talking about or what you would do.

I would bet a lot of cash that 80 to 90 percent of you would try and get away instead of going to very possible death.

The Fight or Flight syndrome.
Quoting wxchaser97:

In Michigan a bill was just passed in the legislative that allows trained individuals to carry a concealed weapon in schools and churches and other gun-free zones. This bill is going to Governor Snyder for signing at some point in time(it might have already been signed, I don't know).
Link


sorry but even trained individuals have psychological disorders..just adding gasoline to the fire..

the government cutbacks in mental illness centers and programs is the probably one of the first areas our politicians need to revisit..
While all this gun talk is fun and all, I'm going to just add in one weather thing. The 00z GFS continues with deepening a low over MI bringing high winds and a rain to snow event, about an inch of snow on the backside, in SE MI.
Quoting ncstorm:


sorry but even trained individuals have psychological disorders..just adding gasoline to the fire..

the government cutbacks in mental illness centers and programs is the probably one of the first areas our politicians need to revisit..

I never said I was for or against it, just saying MI legislatures has passed that bill in response to the Newtown shooting.
I don't know.

This is an issue that is going to make a lot of people upset and is going to require a lot of thought, and action, from the Obama administration.

Don't forget to wear green and white tomorrow, if possible, to honor the 26 children and adults shot on Friday.

Night.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know.

This is an issue that is going to make a lot of people upset and is going to require a lot of thought, and action, from the Obama administration.

Don't forget to wear green and white tomorrow, if possible, to honor the 26 children and adults shot on Friday.

Night.

I have my green sweat jacket and white t-shirt already picked out for tomorrow.
Night C.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't know.

This is an issue that is going to make a lot of people upset and is going to require a lot of thought, and action, from the Obama administration.

Don't forget to wear green and white tomorrow, if possible, to honor the 26 children and adults shot on Friday.

Night.


I would if Walmart allowed it.
there will be extreme security in my younger sister's school tomorrow here
Quoting wxchaser97:
While all this gun talk is fun and all, I'm going to just add in one weather thing. The 00z GFS continues with deepening a low over MI bringing high winds and a rain to snow event, about an inch of snow on the backside, in SE MI.


I wish that low was dipping lower towards the northeast so i can see some snow when i visit NYC.
BIRTHDAY'S SPECIAL GIFT TO ALL OF YOU TODAY
_______________________________

Since today's my birthday...here is what I promised to show you..click on all pics for larger view



in 4 days...


some of you know Latin here...BTW the first word should be habeamus


and...




THANK YOU GUYS!!!

I'll put them up this afternoon for the new people logging in later...
Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..








Well, what exactly do you mean by "Put God back in the schools"?

I agree the that students should be allowed to pray read their Bible, or whatever they may practice in school, however, the government shouldn't take any sides. There are many reason why. I'm sure you may be aware of them. However, schools should really cut the stupid social programs that attempt to indoctrinate children with certain philosophies/world views, and instead bring back some sort of solid moral structure the most can agree on regardless of faith preference or lack there of.


But ultimately, what I mentioned above is much more minor in comparison to the role of proper parenting. People blame the government for everything, but it really all begins at home...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BIRTHDAY'S SPECIAL GIFT TO ALL OF YOU TODAY
_______________________________

Since today's my birthday...here is what I promised to show you..click on all pics for larger view



in 4 days...


some of you know Latin here...BTW the first word should be habeamus


and...




THANKS YOU GUYS!!!

I'll put them up this afternoon for the new people logging in later...


Hey, that's me in there! *blushes*

Happy birthday!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey, that's me in there! *blushes*

Happy birthday!


why blushes?? lol
I looked for ui ID pic...and all the other fellas.
thanks
If anyone wants to keep up with the latest from Fiji, "Like" Oz Cyclone Chasers on Facebook or just bookmark there page.

Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, what exactly do you mean by "Put God back in the schools"?

I agree the that students should be allowed to pray read their Bible, or whatever they may practice in school
I seriously think the people advocating the notion that we need god back in school don't actually know what it is they're implying. They're suggesting a government endorsement of a particular religion, which is wrong, regardless of belief or creed. These people also seem to forget that you can still pray in public schools. Also, if god exists, he obviously can't leave you unless you leave him. Last I checked there were believers everywhere.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


why blushes?? lol

Because you recognized my inherent sexiness. I thought no one ever would.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Because you recognized my inherent sexiness. I thought no one ever would.


??... freaky
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


??... freaky
LOL that was the idea :P
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BIRTHDAY'S SPECIAL GIFT TO ALL OF YOU TODAY
_______________________________

Since today's my birthday...here is what I promised to show you..click on all pics for larger view



in 4 days...


some of you know Latin here...BTW the first word should be habeamus


and...




THANKS YOU GUYS!!!

I'll put them up this afternoon for the new people logging in later...


Happy birthday!

Don't get too rowdy today!
Quoting KoritheMan:

I seriously think the people advocating the notion that we need god back in school don't actually know what it is they're implying. They're suggesting a government endorsement of a particular religion, which is wrong, regardless of belief or creed. These people also seem to forget that you can still pray in public schools. Also, if god exists, he obviously can't leave you unless you leave him. Last I checked there were believers everywhere.


I am a Christian, but I logically realize the problem with putting "God back in schools".

The government could decide to say any god told them to do any given thing. I personally don't want the government telling me what they think is the will of God, and then make that the law of the land, that is scary...


Its ironic though, the same general amount people who support such action in schools, would absolutely freak over gun rights being taken away, yet the potential outcome of the government doing things supposedly in the name of God is far more disturbing then even if Americans had their guns removed by federal law...
What if our government made sharia law the new law in American schools and public life, would the same people then be so adamant of religious enforcement in schools?



The fact is, if a parent wants their child to be raised on Christian doctrine, they can teach it to their children, not expect public schools to do so...



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
BIRTHDAY'S SPECIAL GIFT TO ALL OF YOU TODAY
_______________________________

Since today's my birthday...here is what I promised to show you..click on all pics for larger view



in 4 days...


some of you know Latin here...BTW the first word should be habeamus


and...




THANK YOU GUYS!!!

I'll put them up this afternoon for the new people logging in later...


Happy Birthday!
274. maeko
I'm not used to looking at Pacific Cyclones and am confusing myself the more I look at it. Here on the East Coast, we say a place is getting 'the bad side' if the 'cane is passing just to the SW b/c they are getting the NE Quad. My friend is in Suva City. Is Suva getting the 'bad-side'?
Quoting Jedkins01:


What if our government made sharia law the new law in American schools and public life, would the same people then be so adamant of religious enforcement in schools?



They'd still perceive it as a "might makes right" situation. That kind of paradigm is not only hypocritical, it is completely antithetical to the core foundation of Christianity, which is Jesus Christ. To these types of Christians, freedom of religion really means "my way or the highway". They want to openly espouse their views while at the same time actively denying others to do the same. Hell, we still have most of America (not just Christians -- no need for an unfair exclusion of other guilty parties) convinced all Muslims are terrorists. I have an ex-Muslim friend in Baton Rouge that I met online and then subsequently met up with at a movie theater. We were in the car together and I told him "Dude, I'd tread carefully about your former Muslim affiliation if I were you. It likely won't fly here."

To these people, even an active government-sanctioned Sharia law would do nothing to make them realize the error of their ways. They'd just eliminate the Muslims (figuratively and literally), then just be even more convinced that they are right.
Quoting Neapolitan:
So the way to prevent gun violence is to encourage even more guns?

Seriously?

Following that logic, then, imagine what a safe world we'd live in if every person were armed! Every teacher and student; every theatergoer; every mall shopper, office worker, and mail sorter! Imagine each and every one of them packing heat, ready to draw at a moment's notice and take out The Bad Guy! Yes! That would work! Look at places like Syria and Somalia and Afghanistan and Nigeria! Just about every man, woman, and child has an AK-47--and when's the last time you read about any gun violence happening there?!
Quoting AussieStorm:

But then there could be one teacher that loses it with a student and shoots them. Guns don't belong in schools. Better, tighter gun controls is what is needed. I heard on the radio if you buy a gun there from a gun shop you wait 10 days for the background checks to be done, but if you buy a guy at a gun show, no checks are done.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Watch some police shootout dashcam videos on YouTube. One common thing you'll notice is that, when confronted with the barrel of a gun pointed at them, even the most well-trained, highly-experienced law enforcement officer on the planet has a few moments of terror-filled panic before remembering to unholster their weapon, turn off the safety, aim, and fire. And these, mind you, are people who aren't just trained, but are prepared for the possibility that they could be shot at. I contend that there is no way someone such as, say, a first-grade teacher facing an armored, masked, assault rifle-toting gunman is going to have both the composure and the time to do anything.

More guns are the answer to gun violence like more cigarettes are the cure for lung cancer.
Good posts.
Jedkins01 Post 272 -
Good comment; thanks.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


How come they call it Hurricane warning and not Cyclone warning???


note all the warnings are based on wind forces factor.. likely these are all ship warnings.

"Gale Force"
"Storm Force"
"Hurricane Force"
If symmetry holds, the southeast side closest to the large islands would be the bad side, but as the storm was approaching it seemed that the strongest radar echoes were on the northern side of the eyewall. Storms do not always follow the rules. Celia which struck Corpus Christi some years ago had its worst winds come in from the west after land fall. I think we'll have to wait and see what the news brings after the storm has passed and people are able to move about again.

Edit: The TCR on Celia--"Celia was a unique hurricane meteorologically in that most of the damage occured in conjunction with explosive tornado-like winds that developed in the left semicircle."
I didn't know 2007 Humberto was upped in the TCR from 80 to 90 mph
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I didn't know 2007 Humberto was upped in the TCR from 80 to 90 mph


Well he was.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well he was.

very interested for next year's version... so harsh
The core of Cyclone Evan has become less organized by land interaction of Fiji. I am pretty sure Evan made landfall on Fiji.

Quoting Civicane49:
The core of Cyclone Evan has become less organized by land interaction of Fiji. I am pretty sure Evan made landfall on Fiji.



Is it me or did the eye jog southeast?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is it me or did the eye jog southeast?


it actually did, or is still doing, very odd..

and it is making landfall now for sure
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is it me or did the eye jog southeast?


Maybe the eye jog southeast.
Quoting AussieStorm:

The Fight or Flight syndrome.
the reports i read said the principal and school psychologist did run toward the shooter in an attempt to stop him. guns in school may not be the answer (for fear a student would gain access to them) but what about mace? or pepper spray? (bear spray works from several feet away) i don't doubt the principal would have hesitated to mace the shooter, and things may have turned out a lot different. i don't have children (only 4-legged variety) and i can't begin to imagine the pain of their losses.

on a weather note, another above average temp day here in central illinois. may have a chance for snow on thurs/fri.

back to lurking...........
Quoting wildheron:
on a weather note, another above average temp day here in central illinois. may have a chance for snow on thurs/fri.

back to lurking...........


where at in central Il .. Peoria here ...
Quoting whitewabit:


where at in central Il .. Peoria here ...
just north of mackinaw
Quoting wildheron:
just north of mackinaw


Not far from me .. Good to see another poster from the area ..
I admit, I'm rarely concerned about anything at all. However, these recent shootings have me thinking twice about taking the nature walks I sometimes take. I am cognizant (read: wise) enough not to attempt something like this until things calm down. It's a pretty common motif for crime to sharply increase following a particularly large atrocity like the one in Connecticut. In fact, I wholeheartedly expect even more shootings on the 21st because of the bat**** radicals who actually believe the end of the world is upon us.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM LAUTOKA TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA GROUP AND VATULELE. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 17.9S 177.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Ragged eye discernible in infrared imagery. Eye well define in Nadi radar imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24 HRS

CI held up due to initial weakening of cyclone through land interaction.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 19.0S 176.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.3S 176.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.8S 176.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Quoting wildheron:
the reports i read said the principal and school psychologist did run toward the shooter in an attempt to stop him. guns in school may not be the answer (for fear a student would gain access to them) but what about mace? or pepper spray? (bear spray works from several feet away) i don't doubt the principal would have hesitated to mace the shooter, and things may have turned out a lot different. i don't have children (only 4-legged variety) and i can't begin to imagine the pain of their losses.

on a weather note, another above average temp day here in central illinois. may have a chance for snow on thurs/fri.

back to lurking...........


Yeah, concerning pepper spray, I don't think a blind shooter would be very effective. Should be pretty easy to disarm. Just have to not get shot between the time of first firing and the time when he loses his vision. A taser would be another nonlethal option.

But really, of course, the gun control elephant in the room is the most obvious step. No, you can't make it impossible for a nut to get deadly weapons. But you sure as heck don't have to make it so easy. And the markets are flooded with such weapons because so many are produced in the US because the US makes it so easy to buy them. It's not like these guns are for the most part being produced in Canada and then imported to the US, and if they became illegal in the US, that Canadians would just secretly sneak them across the border. They're being produced in the US, for the US market.

And as for the "God in schools" thing, why are all of these other relatively "godless" (by US standards) nations not flooded with such mass murderers? Does God only apply that standard to the US? Heck, the last major shooting in such a non-US first world nation, the Breivik killings in Norway, were done *by* a Christian radical. Breivik's stated goals: "I believe Europe should strive for: A cultural conservative approach where monoculturalism, moral, the nuclear family, a free market, support for Israel and our Christian cousins of the east, law and order and Christendom itself must be central aspects (unlike now)." Apart for the whole "killing lots of people to further his political objectives" thing, his personal life philosophy is an almost carbon copy of that of the US Republican base. He stated that he planned to pray to God for help during his attacks, and attended what he called a "final Martyr's Mass".

On a weather note myself, it's a nice clear "day" here in Reykjavk, right about freezing. "Day" is in quotes because the sun won't rise until 11:20. ;) We'll hit nautical twilight (aka, you can see the horizon) in about 15 minutes (8:53) and then civil twilight (aka, you can see what the heck you're doing outside, although everything is dim and washed out) at 10:00.
Evan is most likely the worse cyclone to hit Fiji.

I can't find any other major cyclones that have significantly impacted Viti Levu before Evan.

Like Tomas in 2010, most of the cyclones hit Vanua Levu
Sugar City war zone
By MARGARET WISE
Monday, December 17, 2012

Update: 5:26PM LAUTOKA City resembles a war zone.

The sugar city renowned for open parks and greenery is littered with felled trees and debris.

Broken power lines lay strewn across roadways, evidence of the ferocity of Cyclone Evan that continues to batter the once green city.

_______________________________________________

Waidalice River rising
By ROPATE VALEMEI
Monday, December 17, 2012

Update: 6:11PM THE Waidalice River in Korovou, Tailevu, is rising and people are evacuating to their nearest evacuation centres.

Tailevu advisory councillor Jagdish Narayan said 85 families were evacuated to three evacuation centres in Korovou.

Mr Narayan said they had been experiencing strong wind and heavy rain from this afternoon.

He urged people in the area to evacuate as the river was rising rapidly.
Quoting maeko:
I'm not used to looking at Pacific Cyclones and am confusing myself the more I look at it. Here on the East Coast, we say a place is getting 'the bad side' if the 'cane is passing just to the SW b/c they are getting the NE Quad. My friend is in Suva City. Is Suva getting the 'bad-side'?


Suva safe
By TORIKA TOKALAU
Monday, December 17, 2012

Update: 1:04PM WHILE Tropical Cyclone Evan continues to batter the Fiji group, no reports of damage has been reported in the central and eastern divisions.

Strong winds were experienced in the capital and there was little movement.

Police continued to reiterate their warning for people to take precautions and not endanger their lives.
The storm still lingers around there
Cyclone Evan:


Quoting KarenRei:


But really, of course, the gun control elephant in the room is the most obvious step. No, you can't make it impossible for a nut to get deadly weapons. But you sure as heck don't have to make it so easy.

Exactly. Outright banning them is just as stupid as clamoring for more guns. Tighter restrictions, however, are definitely necessary.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Tighter restrictions, however, are definitely necessary.


Indeed. Right or wrong, you have a legal right to bear arms. But that doesn't mean any arms ever conceived, no restrictions. Aka, I think someone might have a problem wif you suddenly announced, "Hey, everyone, check out my shining new 12MT thermonuclear warhead and ICBM delivery system that I bought from a couple Russian arms smugglers back in '94!" And I don't think a "I have a right to bear arms!" argument would hold up when the government comes and takes it away.

The right to bear arms was established back when mass killings with guns was not possible. It was never meant to sanction tools that enabled mass killings because such tools did not exist. And the earlier court rulings clearly showed that limiting the right to bear arms was seen as constitutional. There were five major rulings - 1875, 1886, 1939, 2008, and 2010. Only the rulings in the 2000s came down against gun reglation. All three of the older rulings ruled that the states could ban basically whatever the heck they wanted (it was only the feds that were limited), and the third ruling (US v. Miller) ruled that the Feds could likewise ban weapons that don't have "some reasonable relationship to the preservation or efficiency of a well regulated militia" (in that case, it was about a federal bill banning fully automatic weapons and sawed-off/short-barrel shotguns). Ironically, Jack Miller (a bank robber) was found shot to death before the trial.

The founders of the US lived in a world where the threat of the US falling to an invasion was very real; where there was little difference between the military weapons of the day and hunting weapons of the day; and where none of the weapons of the day posed a realistic threat of mass murder. None of this is applicable to the modern United States. This whole concept of "everyone carrying concealed guns to stop the crazies with their concealed guns" that seems to be a passion of the right in America wasn't even conceivable to the drafters of the constitution. It was certainly not their intention.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Exactly. Outright banning them is just as stupid as clamoring for more guns. Tighter restrictions, however, are definitely necessary.
Personally, I wouldn't mind if they were completely banned. I have no use for them, and I think the vast majority of people also have absolutely no use for guns as well.

Unfortunately, guns will never be completely banned, but I seriously hope gun laws or tightened up big time.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Exactly. Outright banning them is just as stupid as clamoring for more guns. Tighter restrictions, however, are definitely necessary.


What is sad Kori, is the anti gun lobby using the deaths of these innocent children to promote a political agenda.

Good morning everyone, good evening Mr. Aussie!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Quoting KoritheMan:

What is sad Kori, is the anti gun lobby using the deaths of these innocent children to promote a political agenda.
???

The intention of gun laws is to prevent the death of innocent people.

I really hope this post was a joke. I've never really debated gun control before, but this blog has been eye opening. Amazing how many gun supporters there are. It's even more amazing how many people seem to think more guns are the answer.
If anything, our world was safer before guns.

Making stronger, more lethal killing machines has only put us in more danger...it doesn't make us any safer from the "bad guys". We should strive toward stricter gun laws which make it harder to posses firearms, and also limit the strength of the firearms which we can posses.
Tom, I would love to discuss this further, I think perhaps you have misunderstood my comment. At any rate, I must leave to go to work, I will look this up when I get home.
Quoting indianrivguy:
What is sad Kori, is the anti gun lobby using the deaths of these innocent children to promote a political agenda.
We've heard that claim often over the past few days, as we did after Aurora, and after Columbine before that, and so on. But it's a hollow claim, if you ask me, and in my opinion about as logical as complaining about the food safety lobby "using" deaths from botulism and salmonella to promote a political agenda.

At any rate, what is the "anti gun" lobby? I personally prefer to call it the "parents who believe their children have a right to go to school or the movie theater and not be slaughtered by a lunatic brandishing weapons designed solely for soldiers killing enemy combatants on the battlefield" lobby.
Good morning, everyone, Evening, Aussie. A balmy 62 degrees here this morning. Supposed to be seventy later on, guess my Christmas sweaters will have to stay home. I think I get to wear one again on Thursday. They're too heavy for this warm weather.
i know this will irk some of you , but i wish to point out a couple of things . the conn. shoot had issues(duh) . Somebody around him knew that. You dont just shoot 28 people , killing all but one, withsome training with the weapon. The gun didnt train him. Someone did. Someone also knew he was capable of this and kept silent . Banning guns wont make people more responsible .The guns he used were not his . They were registered to his mom , whom he killed . i.e. he didnt legally own them. so banning legal gun ownership means what? a person who legally owns a gun cant commit mass murder? you have know idea of how many illegal guns are out there . how many people die from drugs ? smoking? cars? hows the ban on drugs working? pretty good considering the gateway pot just got legalized in some states! Americans dont have tha stomach to enforce the laws they have, until its fashionable.
wow Orlando is socked in alright zero visability...
Tampa Bay 7-day....
Good Morning Folks........................
Quoting KoritheMan:
I admit, I'm rarely concerned about anything at all. However, these recent shootings have me thinking twice about taking the nature walks I sometimes take. I am cognizant (read: wise) enough not to attempt something like this until things calm down. It's a pretty common motif for crime to sharply increase following a particularly large atrocity like the one in Connecticut. In fact, I wholeheartedly expect even more shootings on the 21st because of the bat**** radicals who actually believe the end of the world is upon us.



CEDAR LAKE, Ind. (AP) — A northern Indiana man who allegedly threatened to "kill as many people as he could" at an elementary school near his home was arrested by officers who later found 47 guns and ammunition hidden throughout his home.

Von. I. Meyer, 60, of Cedar Lake, was arrested Saturday after prosecutors filed formal charges of felony intimidation, domestic battery and resisting law enforcement against him. He was being held Sunday without bond at the Lake County Jail, pending an initial hearing on the charges, police said in a statement.

Cedar Lake Police officers were called to Meyer's home early Friday after he allegedly threatened to set his wife on fire once she fell asleep, the statement said.

Meyer also threatened to enter nearby Jane Ball Elementary School "and kill as many people as he could before police could stop him," the statement said. Meyer's home is less than 1,000 feet from the school and linked to it by trails and paths through a wooded area, police said.

Police said in the statement that they notified school officials and boosted security at all area schools Friday — the same day 26 people, including 20 students, were shot and killed at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn.

On Saturday, officers served warrants at Meyer's home and arrested him. The statement said police had learned that Meyer kept many weapons in his older, two-story home and "is a known member of the Invaders Motorcycle Gang."

Officers searched the home, finding 47 guns and ammunition worth more than $100,000 hidden throughout the home. Many of the weapons were collector's guns.

Cedar Lake is about 45 miles southeast of Chicago.

A dispatcher with Cedar Lake Police said that the police chief was not available for interviews until Monday.

Lake County police spokeswoman Patti Van Til said Sunday that a SWAT team from the department assisted in serving Saturday's warrants.
Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..








I agree with all but 6. Schools and government have never "taken God from schools", because they have never banned students from praying if they so wish. It is not up to government or school to determine what religeous practice we choose. It is up to individuals to decide.

It's a wet morning of the nasty kind, 41 degrees and cold showers. Have a great day everyone!
i GUESS THE WEATHER IS OF NO CONCERN ONCE AGAIN IN HERE
WINTER STORM DRACO FOR THE NORTHWEST
Everyone have a great Monday! Aussie, if you're on, hope you have a great Tuesday. My classroom is waiting for me, kids coming soon for a fun week before Christmas. Wish it was colder so I could wear my fun Christmas sweaters.
I'm only going to point out this in this gun control discussion.

What this fool did in CT makes it harder for anyone who does use firearms for his/her enjoyment or work. Using guns for entertainment or work requires massive concentration and responsibility as their misuse is so damaging and permanent. Anyone who doesn't have those qualities should forgo any association with firearms and other deadly weapons. I've left hunting camps after watching dangerous displays of ignorance with weapons. We all have a responsibility to hold those using firearms and other deadly weapons for any purpose, including our police and military forces, to a higher standard. Police forces around our country kill innocents, including children, far too often. And our military and mercenaries, need I go there?

Finally, our leaders should lead.

Our Presidents Bush and Obama have ordered over 300 drone strikes in Pakistan alone killing many more children than did the crazy we are now discussing. The parents of those children have a certain right to think we are an entire country gone mad and I sure couldn't argue with them. Our present President would make his statements on the CN massacre much more powerful if he corrected his tendency of using violence and killing to solve his inadequacies and problems. He can end the drone wars today.

He can also end the ground wars and the economic wars he controls which are killing innocent children around the globe.

Sorry if I've offended anyone.
Good article here on cyclone Evan from the New Zealand Herald. Apparently, the eye of the storm passed over the Wallis and Futuna islands, which lie between Samoa and Fiji. There are 1,500 inhabitants on the islands, and all contact has been lost with them. There's nowhere to run on these small, low lying islands.

Link
Quoting yonzabam:
Good article here on cyclone Evan from the New Zealand Herald. Apparently, the eye of the storm passed over the Wallis and Futuna islands, which lie between Samoa and Fiji. There are 1,500 inhabitants on the islands, and all contact has been lost with them. There's nowhere to run on these small, low lying islands.

Link


"Cyclone moves north

WeatherWatch has reported Evan has been upgraded to a top-of-the-scale category five cyclone, but the Fiji Meteorological Office has said that Evan remained a category four cyclone, The Fiji Times has reported.

At 11.30am the MET Office said it had not yet reached the top-of-the-scale category five cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Evan was still moving north.

This morning it had reached the northern island of Vanua Levu as its winds buffered populated areas, WeatherWatch.co.nz said."

North???
Quoting yonzabam:
Good article here on cyclone Evan from the New Zealand Herald. Apparently, the eye of the storm passed over the Wallis and Futuna islands, which lie between Samoa and Fiji. There are 1,500 inhabitants on the islands, and all contact has been lost with them. There's nowhere to run on these small, low lying islands.

Link

I think Gro asked what islands they were a few days ago.

It's good to read the emergency services have taken Evan's passing serious and made sure the residents took Evan's passing serious by enforcing a curfew and locking down main towns and highways.

Highway lockdown

By ILAITIA TURAGABECI
Monday, December 17, 2012

Update: 1:05AM THE Queen's Road in the Sigatoka area is closed as the town locks down to brace against passing Cyclone Evan.
With Rakiraki under water, the Valley Road towards Fiji's Salad Bowl and Kavanagasau Road on the other side of the Sigatoka River also closed to traffic, police said they were restricting movement to ensure the safety of the public.
The entire Western Division from Korolevu to Rakiraki is without power.
While the Fiji Electricity Authority has started restoration works for the Northern Division, it assured that power to the Central Division would be normalised later today, weather permitting.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


"Cyclone moves north

WeatherWatch has reported Evan has been upgraded to a top-of-the-scale category five cyclone, but the Fiji Meteorological Office has said that Evan remained a category four cyclone, The Fiji Times has reported.

At 11.30am the MET Office said it had not yet reached the top-of-the-scale category five cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Evan was still moving north.

This morning it had reached the northern island of Vanua Levu as its winds buffered populated areas, WeatherWatch.co.nz said."

North???


We often use more than once source and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre operated by the US Government is estimating Evan is now a category 5 cyclone".

However a strong category 4 cyclone is similar to a weak category 5. "People shouldn't get hooked on the category status, as regardless this is a major cyclone at the highest end".
When guns are outlawed, the psychos of this world will find another way to wreak carnage. Drive an SUV thru a pee wee football game or a backpack full of molotov cocktails into a daycare for a couple of grim examples. What do we do when those type of attacks occur? Outlaw automobiles or bottles? Mental health is the problem. Responsible adults can own firearms responsibly. The psychos' mom was irresponsible by not having her guns in a gun safe where the fruitcake couldn't get to them.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I am a Christian, but I logically realize the problem with putting "God back in schools".

The government could decide to say any god told them to do any given thing. I personally don't want the government telling me what they think is the will of God, and then make that the law of the land, that is scary...


Its ironic though, the same general amount people who support such action in schools, would absolutely freak over gun rights being taken away, yet the potential outcome of the government doing things supposedly in the name of God is far more disturbing then even if Americans had their guns removed by federal law...
What if our government made sharia law the new law in American schools and public life, would the same people then be so adamant of religious enforcement in schools?



The fact is, if a parent wants their child to be raised on Christian doctrine, they can teach it to their children, not expect public schools to do so...





Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, what exactly do you mean by "Put God back in the schools"?

I agree the that students should be allowed to pray read their Bible, or whatever they may practice in school, however, the government shouldn't take any sides. There are many reason why. I'm sure you may be aware of them. However, schools should really cut the stupid social programs that attempt to indoctrinate children with certain philosophies/world views, and instead bring back some sort of solid moral structure the most can agree on regardless of faith preference or lack there of.


But ultimately, what I mentioned above is much more minor in comparison to the role of proper parenting. People blame the government for everything, but it really all begins at home...


thats our problem Jedkins,using the argument about amendments, "freedoms", and what government shouldnt be able to do..when I was in elementary school, we had prayer, if you didnt want to participate it was something as simple as having your parent write you a note and you being excused during that time..no one was scrutinized if they choose the latter..during that time, I dont remember any mass school shootings while growing up..since then we tried it the political "correct" way in removing prayer out of school and we have seen the consequences of those actions, I would be interested to know how many mass school shootings we have had since prayer was removed from school and how many mass school shootings we had when prayer was allowed in school..Im pretty certain the numbers after prayer was removed will far outnumber those when we had prayer in school..
On a much lighter and wonderful side, please enjoy Einstein, a very talented parrot.
thank you Doug....right on
ABC News
The NRA, which frequently communicates through social media, hasn't tweeted since before the shooting.



Naviti Street in Lautoka as Cyclone Evan showed its category four strength. Picture: BALJEET SINGH
It looks like Evans Eye hugged half the shoreline. Wow the eye shrunk down and sped up fast.

Why do the links to NOAA's loop page say they won't support JAVA loops after 1/1/2010? almost 3 years later. And their Special events imagery...also says 2010?
Did their web page person quit in mid 2010 or are we still stuck in Bizarro world from Karen and post#320?
Good morning everyone, this last week before break will feature a changing weather pattern.
Quoting biff4ugo:
It looks like Evans Eye hugged half the shoreline. Wow the eye shrunk down and sped up fast.

They still teach sharing, kindness, and treat others as you want to be treated in public schools. It is unfortunate that extreme views label that communism, weakness, and socialism. I'm glad my child is learning those values anyway.

I don't know where I would rather live, USA, UK, Philippines or here in Sydney. In the Philippines kids are taught respect from the day dot. The UK is a basket case when it comes to politically correctiveness.

Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..







Is this a joke?
WS Draco may deliver snow to the areas that lost it during the rain this weekend.


I'm very amature about this kind of stuff, but it's so WEIRD seeing a TC go down


Eye coming out.
Quoting Neapolitan:
We've heard that claim often over the past few days, as we did after Aurora, and after Columbine before that, and so on. But it's a hollow claim, if you ask me, and in my opinion about as logical as complaining about the food safety lobby "using" deaths from botulism and salmonella to promote a political agenda.

At any rate, what is the "anti gun" lobby? I personally prefer to call it the "parents who believe their children have a right to go to school or the movie theater and not be slaughtered by a lunatic brandishing weapons designed solely for soldiers killing enemy combatants on the battlefield" lobby.
First of all, all basic firearms designs were initially military weapons. An 'assualt rifle' is not a true current military weapon, it is semi-auto and not full auto.

Second, even strict rules on registration, storage and training regarding weapons did not stop Anders Behring Breivik from killing 77 and wounding 151 in otherwise low-violence Norway. There is little that you can do to stop a determined lunatic other than confronting him with force. And that is the problem with gun-free zones - if someone penetrates that zone with weapons, they have free reign for slaughter until someone shows up with a weapon themselves, or if some brave souls get lucky and can jump the perp when he is changing magazines (like what happened in the Arizona shootings) - a very small time window.

Israelis would like the 'right' for their children to not face threats of murder in their schools. But they know that will not happen in the near future, so there are armed guards at Israeli schools. Likewise, if a couple of principals were armed with weapons in secure storage in their office, they could confront a gunman before dozens of lives have been taken. That way no guns are regularly in the classrooms but they are available in case of a violent invasion. No guarantee they could stop the lunatic, but they would at least have a fighting chance and also maybe give an opportunity for students and teachers to escape. And they know their own schools far better than the cops showing up.

For every school shooting, there are defensive uses of guns that don't make the papers or the evening news. I have had to do such once in my life. Did not require me to shoot the weapon or even point it. Just showed the crackhead who had kicked in my door that I had a Mossberg and was getting ready to rack it. He was gone in a flash. Nothing sends someone bent on mayhem into incontinence and flight like the sound of a shotgun being racked or a round being chambered in a semiauto. And there are an estimated 2+ million such defensive uses of weapons each year in this country. Almost all of them simply require brandishing the weapon. A non-violent end to a potentially violent confrontation.

I don't concealed carry. I am big enough to deter just about anyone with size alone and am a crappy shot with a handgun anyway. I do believe carry in public requires training and a high degree of demonstrated competence. But CCW holders are not the problem in this country, they have an extremely low rate of having their permits revoked. I am glad they are around, I hope if I am sucked into a shooting incident one would be around to stop the perp. As the old saying goes, when seconds matter, the cops are minutes away.

It would be nice to live in a world without crackheads, thieves, lunatics and violent drunk husbands. But that ain't changing anytime soon, nor is the war on some drugs that triggers so much of the gun violence in this country. So as long as that exists, people will own guns for self defense. The idea of a gun-free zone being a more-secure place lives in denial of that reality.
Quoting ncstorm:




thats our problem Jedkins,using the argument about amendments, "freedoms", and what government shouldnt be able to do..when I was in elementary school, we had prayer, if you didnt want to participate it was something as simple as having your parent write you a note and you being excused during that time..no one was scrutinized if they choose the latter..during that time, I dont remember any mass school shootings while growing up..since then we tried it the political "correct" way in removing prayer out of school and we have seen the consequences of those actions, I would be interested to know how many mass school shootings we have had since prayer was removed from school and how many mass school shootings we had when prayer was allowed in school..Im pretty certain the numbers after prayer was removed will far outnumber those when we had prayer in school..
Without getting into the respective debate about prayer in schools, I would also put forth that we have seen changes in family structure that cause a lot of problems for children, as well as a vast increase in the amount of violent images children see growing up on TV and movies.
Quoting ncstorm:
The below needs to happen in order to prevent terrible tragedies of mass murderers shooting in public places

1. Hands On Parenting..stop leaving TV, internet and video games to raise our children
2. Media Sensationlism of murderers, violence, etc needs to END!!
3. Violence commonly depicted and easily accessible on Television, Movies,Internet and Video Games has to stop
4. STRICTER Gun Control Laws
5. Remove sale of weapons from Walmart and any other family shopping center
6. PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Good night and please remember the families, the little angels, the brave teachers, first responders in your prayers..






Which God? The Christian one? The Islamic one? The Buddhist one? By their very nature, you can't prominently feature one without excluding the others. And if you go without featuring one, you aren't really putting "God" into schools.

And as a note... look in the US Constitution. Not once in the Constitution or the Bill of Rights (or any amendments, for that matter) does it say the word "God". Not Once. We are, by definition, a secular country... that is... one separate from religion.

What you believe may not be what everyone else believes. Please don't force what you believe on everyone else - especially in a time of crisis.
It's to warm for December!.Interesting enough 12/21/12 will be our coldest day of the week.lol.We won't be getting no snow through the next week or two.2012 started snowless and will be ending snowless.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
When guns are outlawed, the psychos of this world will find another way to wreak carnage.


Yes, when you eliminate solutions designed *specifically* for killing large numbers of people, psychos will find whatever *inferior options which aren't as good at killing people* as they can.

Now, could you explain to me why that's not a major improvement?
For those that are for gun control. Remember prohobition people!
Quoting ncstorm:




thats our problem Jedkins,using the argument about amendments, "freedoms", and what government shouldnt be able to do..when I was in elementary school, we had prayer, if you didnt want to participate it was something as simple as having your parent write you a note and you being excused during that time..no one was scrutinized if they choose the latter..during that time, I dont remember any mass school shootings while growing up..since then we tried it the political "correct" way in removing prayer out of school and we have seen the consequences of those actions, I would be interested to know how many mass school shootings we have had since prayer was removed from school and how many mass school shootings we had when prayer was allowed in school..Im pretty certain the numbers after prayer was removed will far outnumber those when we had prayer in school..

The lack of prayer in school isn't the issue. My school never had prayer during the day, and we never had a mass shooting. Forcing a religion or belief on children that don't have the cognitive capacity to understand fully what they are being told (or able to make a decision for themselves) is wrong. Making the child get a note from their parents to be "excused" is not only wrong, but sets up the child for exclusion from other activities... basically, discrimination.

We are a secular country. That is, one without a state religion, and one separate from religion. Our Constitution, the "law of the land", does not contain the word "God" anywhere in its text, or its amendments. The only reference to religion is the one establishing the freedom thereof. By forcing prayer in schools, or even allowing it during instructional time, you set up a standard, and precedent. How would you feel if your child went to a public school where they had to say 10 hail marys, or pray towards Mecca every day? Its the same thing.

We are a free country - free to practice what we like, without fear of retribution or discrimination. While that leaves you free to practice what you like, it does not leave you free to exclude others to practice what they like.

Instead of "putting God back into schools" (he was never really there to take away, in an official sense), how about making parents responsible for raising their children? How about taking the sensationalism away from the media? How about making mental healthcare actually accessible to a majority of the country? How about teaching our children morals, respect, and responsibility?

When a doctor treats a patient, they don't treat the symptoms, they treat the cause. We shouldn't make this a political event, and rail on about gun control, and God in school... this is a societal and cultural issue - and it should be dealt with as such.
Quoting KarenRei:


Yes, when you eliminate solutions designed *specifically* for killing large numbers of people, psychos will find whatever *inferior options which aren't as good at killing people* as they can.

Now, could you explain to me why that's not a major improvement?

It is a slippery slope. Take away the rights to own one type of item, and it is easy to expand it to other items in the same category.
Quoting jeffs713:

The lack of prayer in school isn't the issue. My school never had prayer during the day, and we never had a mass shooting. Forcing a religion or belief on children that don't have the cognitive capacity to understand fully what they are being told (or able to make a decision for themselves) is wrong. Making the child get a note from their parents to be "excused" is not only wrong, but sets up the child for exclusion from other activities... basically, discrimination.

We are a secular country. That is, one without a state religion, and one separate from religion. Our Constitution, the "law of the land", does not contain the word "God" anywhere in its text, or its amendments. The only reference to religion is the one establishing the freedom thereof. By forcing prayer in schools, or even allowing it during instructional time, you set up a standard, and precedent. How would you feel if your child went to a public school where they had to say 10 hail marys, or pray towards Mecca every day? Its the same thing.

We are a free country - free to practice what we like, without fear of retribution or discrimination. While that leaves you free to practice what you like, it does not leave you free to exclude others to practice what they like.

Instead of "putting God back into schools" (he was never really there to take away, in an official sense), how about making parents responsible for raising their children? How about taking the sensationalism away from the media? How about making mental healthcare actually accessible to a majority of the country? How about teaching our children morals, respect, and responsibility?

When a doctor treats a patient, they don't treat the symptoms, they treat the cause. We shouldn't make this a political event, and rail on about gun control, and God in school... this is a societal and cultural issue - and it should be dealt with as such.
Are you sure your not a lawyer or a judge rather than a doctor?.lol

Improving the Tropical Cyclone Climate Record
16 December 2012
Guest Commentary by Christopher Hennon (UNC Asheville)

Get involved in a new citizen science project at CycloneCenter.org.

The poor quality of the tropical cyclone (TC) data record provides severe constraints on the ability of climate scientists to: a) determine to what degree TCs have responded to shifts in climate, b) evaluate theories on how TCs will respond to climate change in the future. The root cause for the poor data is the severity of the TC conditions (e.g. high wind, rough seas) and the remoteness of these storms – the vast majority of which form and remain well away from most observing networks. Thus, most TCs are not observed directly and those that are (with buoys, aircraft reconnaissance, ships) are often not sampled sufficiently (see the IBTrACS, (Knapp et al., 2010)).
...

A new crowd sourcing project, called Cyclone Center, embraces the human element by enabling the public to perform a simplified version of the Dvorak Technique to analyze historical global tropical cyclone (TC) intensities (Hennon, 2012). Cyclone Center’s primary goal is to resolve discrepancies in the recent global TC record arising principally from inconsistent development of tropical cyclone intensity data. The Cyclone Center technique standardizes the classification procedure by condensing the Dvorak Technique to a few simple questions that can be answered by global, nonprofessional users.

One of the main advantages of this approach is the inclusion of thousands of users, instead of the 1-3 who would normally classify a TC image. This allows the computation of measures of uncertainty in addition to a mean intensity. Nearly 300,000 images, encompassing all global TCs that formed from 1978-2009, will be classified 30 times each – a feat that would take a dedicated team of twenty Dvorak-trained experts about 12 years to complete. Citizen scientists have already performed over 100,000 classifications since the project launch in September. Once the project is complete, a new dataset of global TC tracks and intensities will be made available to the community to contribute to our efforts to provide the best possible TC data record.

Interested readers are encouraged to learn more about and participate in the project at the cyclonecenter.org website (there are some FAQ on the project blog). The CycloneCenter project is a collaboration between the Citizen Science Alliance, NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), University of North Carolina at Asheville, and the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites (CICS) – North Carolina.


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/201 2/12/improving-the-tropical-cyclone-climate-record /
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
When guns are outlawed, the psychos of this world will find another way to wreak carnage. Drive an SUV thru a pee wee football game or a backpack full of molotov cocktails into a daycare for a couple of grim examples. What do we do when those type of attacks occur? Outlaw automobiles or bottles? Mental health is the problem. Responsible adults can own firearms responsibly. The psychos' mom was irresponsible by not having her guns in a gun safe where the fruitcake couldn't get to them.


I wholeheartedly agree. Anyone who is willing to commit such an evil act as what happened on Friday would do so regardless of the weapon. Hypothetically even if we as a country banned firearms outright, criminals would find another method of mass casualty (pipe bombs, homemade destructive devices etc.) As for gun control I believe this country needs to institute a better vetting & registration process for individuals who would like to responsibly own firearms. This also includes ammunition as well as severe penalties for any crimes commissioned with the use of a gun. I see both sides of the gun control issue, however. After all who wouldn%u2019t as we saw innocent children snuffed out at the hands of a nut job with a military style weapon. I%u2019m personally a gun owner and I ensure that my guns are locked away when not in use and it would be my liability if such guns were used to commit such crimes. My view and opinion, however, is that I like the thought of the %u201Cgood guys%u201D being able to defend themselves and their families from such criminals as I%u2019m pretty sure that anyone who%u2019s willing to commit such a crime is probably not going to care enough about any gun laws let alone his/her life to not possess a weapon. With that said you come into my house and try to hurt me or my family and you will be on the business end of my 12 gauge. The truth is that regardless of control measures, what we must do is secure our schools better. The status quo is not working. I%u2019d rather not wait around for Washington and its pencil pushers to figure out what to do with GC when our most precious resources can be slaughtered like lambs. Everyone regardless of political stance probably agrees with that. Whether that means posting two armed security guards or cops on campuses at all times so be it. Also I%u2019d like to know that some Tom Dick and Harry can%u2019t just walk into my kid%u2019s elementary school, so if this means locking down and checking in every visitor or parent that accesses the school then so be it. We live in a different time and have seen that terrorism isn%u2019t always in the form of a hijacked plane or originates from overseas.
Quoting KarenRei:


Yes, when you eliminate solutions designed *specifically* for killing large numbers of people, psychos will find whatever *inferior options which aren't as good at killing people* as they can.

Now, could you explain to me why that's not a major improvement?
Now, just how do you realistically go about doing that? Britain has all-but outlawed private gun ownership, is an island nation, and still has a growing gun crime problem. We are getting close to the day when someone could use 3-d printing to create a fully-functional semi-auto rifle.

The idealist pines for a way to get rid of weapons. A realist realizes that if you disarm the law-abiding, that puts them at a distinct disadvantage. Chicago has very strict gun laws and a lot of firearms murders. Something else is the problem (hint, also reference what happened in Chicago the last time we created a massive black market, back in the 1920s).
Quoting washingtonian115:
Are you sure your not a lawyer or a judge rather than a doctor?.lol

LOL.

My wife asked me about what happened, since I read the news a lot, and am usually well informed. (I had not said anything about it, because it upsets me so much) When I started explaining what happened, she actually had to calm me down, because I was getting so angry. In over 3-1/2 years of knowing me, she had never seen me so visibly angry at a situation.

There are a few things in the world that completely set me off, and raise my blood pressure by 20-30 points. This is one of them. The lack of parenting skills involved with so many of our children is an absolute travesty. Combine that with people trying to score political points during a tragedy, and people trying to force their opinions on others... bad things happen to my level of irritation.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
For those that are for gun control. Remember prohobition people!


So people are going to brew up bathtub-automatic rifles with extended clips and distribute them en masse as common and as effective as today? Is that the concept here?

Please explain to me why America is one of the only first world country that this won't work for, since almost everyone else does this already without problems.

With the amount of arguing on here, you'd think it was still hurricane season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
With the amount of arguing on here, you'd think it was still hurricane season.

I don't see arguing... I see passionate opinions, but no yelling or arguing. Yet.
Quoting jeffs713:

LOL.

My wife asked me about what happened, since I read the news a lot, and am usually well informed. (I had not said anything about it, because it upsets me so much) When I started explaining what happened, she actually had to calm me down, because I was getting so angry. In over 3-1/2 years of knowing me, she had never seen me so visibly angry at a situation.

There are a few things in the world that completely set me off, and raise my blood pressure by 20-30 points. This is one of them. The lack of parenting skills involved with so many of our children is an absolute travesty. Combine that with people trying to score political points during a tragedy, and people trying to force their opinions on others... bad things happen to my level of irritation.

Thing that sets me off pet peeve pet peeve = Rants by Jeffs713.
Seeing this event has also put me in such a angry state.I actually went to bed crying on friday and my husband had to calm me down.I'm still upset about what happened.Scoring political events during a tragedy is quite selfish if you ask me.I'm a christian but forcing kids to learn about others religion they don't worship isn't right at all.


Quoting jeffs713:

The lack of prayer in school isn't the issue. My school never had prayer during the day, and we never had a mass shooting. Forcing a religion or belief on children that don't have the cognitive capacity to understand fully what they are being told (or able to make a decision for themselves) is wrong. Making the child get a note from their parents to be "excused" is not only wrong, but sets up the child for exclusion from other activities... basically, discrimination.

We are a secular country. That is, one without a state religion, and one separate from religion. Our Constitution, the "law of the land", does not contain the word "God" anywhere in its text, or its amendments. The only reference to religion is the one establishing the freedom thereof. By forcing prayer in schools, or even allowing it during instructional time, you set up a standard, and precedent. How would you feel if your child went to a public school where they had to say 10 hail marys, or pray towards Mecca every day? Its the same thing.

We are a free country - free to practice what we like, without fear of retribution or discrimination. While that leaves you free to practice what you like, it does not leave you free to exclude others to practice what they like.

Instead of "putting God back into schools" (he was never really there to take away, in an official sense), how about making parents responsible for raising their children? How about taking the sensationalism away from the media? How about making mental healthcare actually accessible to a majority of the country? How about teaching our children morals, respect, and responsibility?

When a doctor treats a patient, they don't treat the symptoms, they treat the cause. We shouldn't make this a political event, and rail on about gun control, and God in school... this is a societal and cultural issue - and it should be dealt with as such.



Right on target, great post!
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Now, just how do you realistically go about doing that? Britain has all-but outlawed private gun ownership, is an island nation, and still has a growing gun crime problem.


The UK's murder rate is a little over a quarter that of the US's (1,2 vs. 4,2 per 100.000 per year). So can I then take your post as support of gun control, since you chose the UK example yourself?

We are getting close to the day when someone could use 3-d printing to create a fully-functional semi-auto rifle.


We're about a century from that being a realistic option for your average person. Nobody, anywhere has ever printed a barrel, with any kind of machine, no matter how expensive (let alone consumer-grade - consumer grade 3d printers being things that almost nobody has anyway). They've printed a stock, but well, gee, color me unimpressed. There's a world of difference between laying out little crude globs of plastic into a shape and automatically machining precision steel components.

A realist realizes that if you disarm the law-abiding, that puts them at a distinct disadvantage.


No, the word for a person who thinks that having random civilians add to a hail of gunfire and having everyone who experiences any moment of rage have a gun on hand to act on it will decrease the death rate is "idiot".

Chicago has very strict gun laws and a lot of firearms murders.


Why Chicago in particular? NYC's gun laws are more onerous than Chicago's, but they have half the murder rate. And SCOTUS crippled most city gun laws anyway.
I will ask again What makes it an assault weapon? Is it how it looks? The guns used were Semi-auto NOT fully auto. If I take my deer hunting rifle (Which by the way is way more powerful than a .223 caliber) and put a bigger clip in it is it an assault weapon. It does not look like one but is much more deadly than his Bushmaster.

FWIW in a close combat area where killing everyone is the main point. I will take a 12 gauge pump with a drum magazine, because if it jams I can easily clear it. Is a 12 gauge shotgun an assault weapon. I can shoot my 870 pump pretty much just as fast as my 1187 auto.

One more thing a .223 cal is made to wound on the battlefield and not kill as much, Reason a wounded soldier is a much bigger problem for the enemy than a dead one.

364. eddye
how cold does the gfs show for orlando this weekend because i just typed in orlando fl and it shows 39 but is that correct has anyone look at the models for near christmas time for south fla someone told me it shows low 40
Quoting KarenRei:

Please explain to me why America is one of the only first world country that this won't work for, since almost everyone else does this already without problems.



Without problems? Lots of countries have gun control, the level of problems that occur vary greatly. One of the biggest issues you are going to have in the U.S. is a huge portion of the population is unwilling to be disarmed and already highly armed.

"...best estimates are about 45% or 52 million of American households owning 260 million guns."

Most other countries with successful gun bans have had much lower gun ownership numbers.

The other issue is the design and history of the American government. The right to own guns is integrated in to our culture.

People brewed up liquor and distributed it during prohibition very well. Meth, cocaine, and weed is plentiful and supports a huge criminal black market. A manufactured gun black market seems like it would prosper.

Quoting KarenRei:


The UK's murder rate is a little over a quarter that of the US's (1,2 vs. 4,2 per 100.000 per year). So can I then take your post as support of gun control, since you chose the UK example yourself?

We are getting close to the day when someone could use 3-d printing to create a fully-functional semi-auto rifle.


We're about a century from that being a realistic option for your average person. Nobody, anywhere has ever printed a barrel, with any kind of machine, no matter how expensive (let alone consumer-grade - consumer grade 3d printers being things that almost nobody has anyway). They've printed a stock, but well, gee, color me unimpressed. There's a world of difference between laying out little crude globs of plastic into a shape and automatically machining precision steel components.

A realist realizes that if you disarm the law-abiding, that puts them at a distinct disadvantage.


No, the word for a person who thinks that having random civilians add to a hail of gunfire and having everyone who experiences any moment of rage have a gun on hand to act on it will decrease the death rate is "idiot".

Chicago has very strict gun laws and a lot of firearms murders.


Why Chicago in particular? NYC's gun laws are more onerous than Chicago's, but they have half the murder rate. And SCOTUS crippled most city gun laws anyway.
First of all, I am pointing out that you can outlaw guns but criminals will still get them and use them. And in the US, a strong majority of both perps and victims in homicides have criminal records. You would be doing little to deter those people.

Second, it will be easy to make your own high-capacity clips with 3-D printing and that seems to be the main issue you have. So, as another person noted, when your approach fails, it's down the slippery slope to eventual gun confiscation because none of it would work to the desired intent.

Third, please point me to articles detailing where legal CCW holders went into a fit of rage and sent a hail of bullets into crowds, or engaged in a wanton shootout. Hint, you will find very few. You WILL find plenty of articles about CCW holders stopping violent crime, often at the direct benefit of strangers in public.

Fourth, Chicago still has the most strict gun laws in the country and is making every attempt to dodge application of Heller. Yet the homicide rate there skyrockets.

And fifth, a really nice job of dodging the root cause of that spiking Chicago violence - drug-related shootings. Hint - those gang-bangers won't obey your gun-control laws.
Hi all, I've run into a minor issue and hope some of you weather mavens can sort it our for me.

I'm tracking T.C. Evan and recording its positions on Google Earth. I was linking images from this site's storm tracking to the poistion on Google Earth (initially), then from the NOAA 'Floater' site until I understood that the images at these locations aren't stored.

Consequently, the image I linked to a position a week ago, shows today's image.

Is there a site that archives sat images that can be linked to and expect they'll be there in a year?
ncstorm: PUT GOD BACK IN THE SCHOOLS

Precisely how does one keep God out of school?
It ain't as if ya can go the store and buy a can of Raid God-Repellent.
And compared to the RedSea, parting fences don't seem all that much of a problem.
Forced to take shelter from Cyclone Evan's wrath

HOUSANDS of Australian tourists are stranded in Fiji after tropical cyclone Evan lashed the islands yesterday, destroying villages and leaving behind a trail of destruction that is estimated to cost the Pacific Island nation billions of dollars.

More than 2100 Australians will wake up in Nadi, Lautoka and Suva this morning after a wild night bunkered down in their hotel rooms as wind gusts reached 270km/h, bringing down trees on to homes and ripping roofs off.

Fijian tourism officials last night reported that 2700 holidaymakers had fled their resorts and moved to hotels closer to Nadi airport.

The Fijian government ordered 400 troops to the worst hit areas and officials warned villagers to brace themselves for a 3m tidal surge overnight.
Cyclone Evan tore through Fiji about 2.30pm (AEST) yesterday with the northern town of Lautoka, Fiji's second biggest city, hammered by winds of up to 155km/h, with houses and shops being blown away and buildings flooded. Locals described the scene as resembling a "war zone".
Foreign Minister Bob Carr last night said there were 2100 Australians - including 680 schoolies - registered with the government as currently being in Fiji, with many more believed to be unregistered.

Thousands more Australian families and couples who have booked holidays in Fiji over Christmas have been warned to check the fine print in their travel insurance policies if they need to cancel.

Insurance Council of Australia CEO Rob Whelan said most policies would cover cancellations caused by the cyclone, "depending on the circumstances".

"Anyone heading to the South Pacific soon, and anyone stranded due to the cyclone, should check their travel insurance policies to determine if their provider will compensate them for flight and accommodation cancellations," Mr Whelan said.

Australian Jarrod Harman, who is holidaying at the Sheraton on Denarau Island with his partner, told The Daily Telegraph yesterday all the surrounding islands had been evacuated in the morning. They were told to assemble in the ballroom as the cyclone hit.

"It's pretty bad outside. Extremely windy at the moment and it's supposed to get even worse," he said.

Former Australian rugby league player Petero Civoniceva said his grandmother was living in Suva on the southern side of the island.

"She's a tough lady and I'm sure she'll be all right," the NRL star said.
"(Cyclones) are part and parcel with living in Fiji. Unfortunately it happens over there and there's nothing you can really do except wait until it's over."

A Defence spokeswoman last night said AusAID had been assigned as the lead agency in the relief effort.

Local residents said Evan's damage bill could exceed Cyclone Bebe, which killed 18 people, and Cyclone Kina that killed 23 people in 1993.

Cyclone Evan last week left a trail of destruction in Samoa's capital Apia, killing four islanders.

The Fijian government last night warned residents to avoid flooded streets and told government workers to stay away from work today. Evacuation centres were set up at Raiwaqa and Navua and communications in Levuka and Kadavu were cut off.

Local media reported that more than 3000 locals were staying in evacuation centres with the Navua River expected to break its banks.

In a message posted online, the staff at Lolomas Castaway Island, off the coast of Nadi,- said they were having a difficult time as the cyclone passed. They were unable to be reached when The Daily Telegraph rang yesterday.

"So far our staff and management are safe however our little island paradise has been battered by very strong winds estimated to be up to 280km/h," they wrote.

Geelong newlyweds Ben and Nicole Gargan were among hundreds of Australian tourists in lockdown. They are in the final days of their honeymoon on Denarau Island, just a few hundred metres off the mainland.

"They were meant to fly out on Tuesday, so we're not sure when they will be leaving," said Ben's brother Troy.

In the western parts of the country, all hotels have been advised to store their own water for their own safety until operations normalise.

Geoff Chambers, Nathan Klein and Carleen Frost
News Limited Network
December 18, 2012 12:00AM
Looks like a few of the comments have disappeared.. No surprise..this blog has wrecked & is starting to catch a fire.


Quoting eddye:
how cold does the gfs show for orlando this weekend because i just typed in orlando fl and it shows 39 but is that correct has anyone look at the models for near christmas time for south fla someone told me it shows low 40


GFS shows a good cool down. I think the ECMWF has been running cooler.

A major winter storm is headed to the Puget Sound, with high winds, mountain snowfall and a snow level around 500 feet forecasted through Monday morning. Tidal overflows are also a possibility. The full force of the storm is expected to hit Sunday evening through Monday morning. The National Weather Service issued a high wind warning for the central coast from 12 a.m. Monday through 10 a.m. Monday. Gusts for the coasts will be around 70 mph. Wind in Seattle and Tacoma could be as fast as 60 MPH. Puget Sound Energy has geared up in preparation of the incoming storm, and extra power crews are on standby, officials said. Energy officials encouraged residents to prep for a major storm by keeping emergency kits handy, unplugging sensitive electronic equipment and knowing what natural gas appliances will continue to operate during a power outage.
More here.

Saw Shaun put out a new blog on this storm hitting on the west coast too..
MS river is about to be closed all but 8hrs a day while some submerged granite pinnacles near Thebes, Ill. are blasted out of the way starting Tuesday. Drought & lowering water levels continue. More here.
this is a weather blog not a place too be talking gunes and what happen at that school take that talk too your own blogs
For those concerned with more guns carried by law abiding citizens being more of a problem, this might put things in a different prespective: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-oNMHNrS-8

Further, Israel teachers carry guns: http://gunowners.org/op0218.htm Isreali and
http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/israel

Consider the number of years semiautomatic rifles have been available and sold and the number of high capacity magazines sold in this time and one thinks that banning them now will prevent further violence? Really? Give this more factual thought (data driven, not cherry picked) rather than taking an emotional view and see what conclusions one comes to regardless of their emotions (if one can do that). Try not to generalize and be more specific. Google some of your questions and see the thousands of points of view and data, some pro, some con, and come up with a rational view of the situation. You might be surprised.

The weather here in NEO is relatively warm for this time of the year (43 deg) but cloudy and dreary.
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like a few of the comments have disappeared.. No surprise..this blog has wrecked & is starting to catch a fire.




GFS shows a good cool down. I think the ECMWF has been running cooler.

Just as long as I get my cold.I've been looking in the longer range and it's like winter 010-11 all over again.It get's cold but when parcipitation arrives it gets warmer and instead rains.
351 jeffs713: It is a slippery slope.

Yep, stands to reason. Pass a law agin murder, and the next thing ya know it'll be illegal to breathe.
WU headline

Major Winter Storm Slams Pacific Northwest
A major Winter storm is slamming the Pacific Northwest, where up to 3 feet of new snow is possible for the higher elevations of Washington and Oregon through Monday.
Oregon is already loosing electricity.

At 6 a.m., PGE reported 65 outages in Clackamas County, affecting nearly 5,000 customers. The largest outages were in the Eagle Creek, Damascus, Sandy and Boring areas. All of the outages were due to high winds blowing trees and limbs onto wires.
http://www.fijitimes.com/

"Update: 10:36PM POLICE officers in all divisions have restricted the movement of people in and out of main towns and cities as Tropical Cyclone Evan hits the country.

"They will advise those who don't need to be in town or city at this time to go back to their homes and limit movement as much as possible.

"Commissioner Western Commander Joeli Cawaki has placed a restriction order for urban areas in the West with effect from 7pm today to 6am tomorrow, a police statement said.

"The police statement said it was also being done to protect businesses from those who may want to take advantage of the situation."

It is 4:37 AM there now so the curfew has a bit over an hour to go.
381. eddye
skyepony how cold is that that the gfs shows that u posted
Good Morning All,
Looks like I'm in for some stormy wearther this am..

1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Alabama


1 KM Visible Satellite for Mississippi
Quoting eddye:
skyepony how cold is that that the gfs shows that u posted


For Orlando almost in the 40s (lower 50s)..that's the 850mb so figure a little warmer at the surface.
Hurricane Sandy debris is being up-cycled into furniture to be auctioned to benefit Sandy victims.

Quoting lahcuts:
For those concerned with more guns carried by law abiding citizens being more of a problem, this might put things in a different prespective: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-oNMHNrS-8

Further, Israel teachers carry guns: http://gunowners.org/op0218.htm Isreali and
http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/israel

Consider the number of years semiautomatic rifles have been available and sold and the number of high capacity magazines sold in this time and one thinks that banning them now will prevent further violence? Really? Give this more factual thought (data driven, not cherry picked) rather than taking an emotional view and see what conclusions one comes to regardless of their emotions (if one can do that). Try not to generalize and be more specific. Google some of your questions and see the thousands of points of view and data, some pro, some con, and come up with a rational view of the situation. You might be surprised.

The weather here in NEO is relatively warm for this time of the year (43 deg) but cloudy and dreary.
http://www.kgw.com/news/Clackamas-man-armed-confr onts-mall-shooter-183593571.html

Clackamas mall shooter faced shopper with concealed weapon permit

PORTLAND -- Nick Meli is emotionally drained. The 22-year-old was at Clackamas Town Center with a friend and her baby when a masked man opened fire.

"I heard three shots and turned and looked at Casey and said, 'are you serious?,'" he said.

The friend and baby hit the floor. Meli, who has a concealed carry permit, positioned himself behind a pillar.

"He was working on his rifle," said Meli. "He kept pulling the charging handle and hitting the side."

The break in gunfire allowed Meli to pull out his own gun, but he never took his eyes off the shooter.

"As I was going down to pull, I saw someone in the back of the Charlotte move, and I knew if I fired and missed, I could hit them," he said.

Meli took cover inside a nearby store. He never pulled the trigger. He stands by that decision.

"I'm not beating myself up cause I didn't shoot him," said Meli. "I know after he saw me, I think the last shot he fired was the one he used on himself."

-----------

So Meli did not randomly unleash fire, he was aware of other persons in the field of fire.

But it looks like the perp knew he could not continue shooting because he had a gun trained on him.

And two people died, not dozens.
Heavy lightening around me now..gonna shut the 'puter down..
BBL..
Downloaded the the IOS6 on my Iphone, since Google Maps is allowed as an app on the phones. I have the Weather Underground app installed and it used to use Google maps for radar and what not, now Apple Maps is used on the radar map, how the hell is that possible?? How can the phone override the app and swipe out the Google maps on weather-underground app... that would be infringement, because Wunderground uses Google maps for it's background displays.
What the media doesn't want you to know... what happened this weekend alone after the school shooting. As the chaos is beginning to rev up.

Saturday
Man fires some 50 shots at Calif. mall parking lot

Sunday
San Antonio Movie Theater Shooting: Gunman Shoots 1 In Theater Parking Lot
.
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is a weather blog not a place too be talking gunes and what happen at that school take that talk too your own blogs





Don't spaz, Taz.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
393. eddye
skyepony when are we going 2 have 30 and also mid 30 are we going 2 have it near new years
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
When guns are outlawed, the psychos of this world will find another way to wreak carnage. Drive an SUV thru a pee wee football game or a backpack full of molotov cocktails into a daycare for a couple of grim examples. What do we do when those type of attacks occur? Outlaw automobiles or bottles? Mental health is the problem. Responsible adults can own firearms responsibly. The psychos' mom was irresponsible by not having her guns in a gun safe where the fruitcake couldn't get to them.
Silly argument.

Cars are for transporting people and things.

Bottles are for transporting and holding liquids.

Guns are for destroying living flesh and killing living things.

See the difference?