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Category 2 Evan batters Samoa, killing two

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:30 PM GMT on December 13, 2012

The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is beginning to heat up. Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Evan is pounding Samoa and American Samoa with heavy rains and high winds, after making landfall earlier today on the north shore of Samoa near the capital of Apia. At landfall, Evan had a small 10-mile diameter eye and top winds of 90 mph, but has since intensified to 105 mph winds. Media reports indicate that Evan has killed two, and brought a 12 - 15' storm surge, heavy rains, and severe damage to the island nation. Satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a tiny 7-mile diameter eye. Evan has plenty of intense heavy thunderstorm activity near its core, solid upper-level outflow, and is in an area with weak steering currents. Evan is expected to meander over Samoa until about 18 UTC on Friday, when a ridge of high pressure will build in and force the cyclone to the west. The storm will be in a region with light wind shear and very warm ocean waters that extend to great depth, and could intensify into a Category 3 or 4 cyclone by this weekend. On Sunday, when the ECMWF model predicts that Evan will be near Fiji, the storm will encounter increasing wind shear and should weaken.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Evan over Samoa at 01:05 UTC December 13, 2012. At the time, Evan was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters..
Hope Evan weakens and loss of life is minimal..



Thank you Dr. Masters
Wow! A stalled or slow moving intensifying storm is one of my worst fears for the Keys.
Thanks Doc.I hope to see video of what is happening.Looks like 2012 will be ending funky with tropical cyclones this year.
The front just made it through here. With all that weather out in the Gulf all week, not one drop of rain.
where can i find the old blog from yesterday that jeff masters put up
Evan continues to intensify... Thanks for the update Dr.



This may be close to a CAT 3 equivalent cyclone, if not already one.
Quoting eddye:
where can i find the old blog from yesterday that jeff masters put up


To your right under "Previous Entries for 2012".
Thanks Doc ...
Quoting eddye:
where can i find the old blog from yesterday that jeff masters put up


Link
thnk u doctor,,




Thanks, Doc!!




Good morning all. I just stepped outside and discovered as Chillin said, the front has finally made it across the Keys. By the feel of the wind, I am going to be sorry I didn't bring my sweater to work. Though I don't expect too much of a temperature drop, working on the water and having that breeze, makes for chilly working conditions. I'm glad I am not working the beach!
Thank you Dr Masters. I like reading about tropical cyclones.
thanks and can u guys tell me wat the mdoels are showing for orlando for next weekend because accuweather has 41 degrees for a low
has 41 degrees and i wanna know wat the models show
Evan is just stationary right on the islands and intensifying Ufffffff!!!!!!

Quoting eddye:
thanks and can u guys tell me wat the mdoels are showing for orlando for next weekend because accuweather has 41 degrees for a low
Quoting eddye:
has 41 degrees and i wanna know wat the models show

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/im age_loader.phtml?site=kmco
scottlincoln can u tell me wat it says i dont know how 2 work that
Anyone have the C.I. and T #'s graph of Evan?

called...CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Thanks Doc..Samoa taking a serious beating.
largo fl can u translate that thing for me that scott put up
Quoting eddye:
largo fl can u translate that thing for me that scott put up
from the NWS here is the friday temps you want.......................Fri
Dec 21



AM Clouds / PM Sun

69°/53°

20 %
Oh my goodness! Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!
Quoting ScottLincoln:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/im age_loader.phtml?site=kmco

Interesting link, but when I plug in khgx it says site not available. Rats.
WunderAdmin, why isn't Lee Grenci's featured blog listed&linked along with Dr.Masters' and the others
True it ain't been specificly tropical so far -- there's a new one since yesterday's -- but then not all of Dr.Masters' blogs are about tropical weather.

Just change the list's heading from TropicalBlogs to FeaturedBlogs, and folks who drop directly into the main tropical blog can easily traverse over to any of Wunderground's featured bloggers.
ok found one NWS that is hinting at a nor'easter next week..too soon to verify tho..things can change....................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
EXACT DETAILS...TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN VERY
UNCERTAIN.

THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT. IT PROBABLY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME. SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND ARE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT PROBABLY WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR MAY BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW. IF IT DOES END UP COLD ENOUGH...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SMALL SWATH OF
ICE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

FINALLY...A STRONG COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO OUR REGION...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Quoting aspectre:
Hey, WunderAdmin, why isn't Lee Grenci's featured blog listed&linked along with Dr.Masters' and the others'.
True it ain't been specificly tropical so far -- there's a new one since yesterday -- but then not all of Dr.Masters' blogs are about tropical weather.

Just change the list's heading from TropicalBlogs to FeaturedBlogs so folks who drop directly into the tropical blog can easily traverse over to any of Wunderground's featured bloggers.


Great Idea aspectre..wish I could double plus you on that.. :)
another possible warning for next week..too soon to know..
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT THE THREAT EXISTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN OR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WIND...AND COASTAL FLOODING EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$$
Lo 41°
RealFeel® 40°

Precipitation 0%

thats accuweather for sat night
Quoting eddye:
Lo 41°
RealFeel® 40°

Precipitation 0%

thats accuweather for sat night
well 40 is not too cold, wont be any freezing temps and daytime in the 60's is nice..remember its wintertime almost
And in one run, after days of consistency, the GFS inexplicably dumps the idea of a second trough and severe weather. Gone just like that:

0z:


6z:



Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
And in one run, after days of consistency, the GFS inexplicably dumps the idea of a second trough and severe weather. Gone just like that:

0z:


6z:



patterns do change from day to day thats why i dont listen to them more than 3 days out
georgiastorm2 how cold is that that looks pretty cold for orlando and jacksonville
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
And in one run, after days of consistency, the GFS inexplicably dumps the idea of a second trough and severe weather. Gone just like that:

0z:


6z:





GS thats what the GFS 384 model tends to do, gets you ready for drama and sensationalist weather, and then. its bursts the bubble once the hype has started.
someone said yesterday one of the models showed snow in central fl for next week
Quoting wxmod:
Top satellite photo on Tuesday resulted in heavy rain in the bone dry desert Thursday (bottom).







Beautiful picture.

Thanks for posting.

Isn't it amazing how Mother Nature has such an instinctive way of balancing things out.

:)



Ladies and gentlemen, it's good to be back. How's everybody doing? I for one am looking forward for maybe some snow soon in my area!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Ladies and gentlemen, it's good to be back. How's everybody doing? I for one am looking forward for maybe some snow soon in my area!




GEEK!!!! OMG. Missed YOU!!!!!!!

:)



Quoting wxmod:
Top satellite photo on Tuesday resulted in heavy rain in the bone dry desert Thursday (bottom).







who did it?
Quoting yoboi:




who did it?




LMAO



Quoting WxGeekVA:
Ladies and gentlemen, it's good to be back. How's everybody doing? I for one am looking forward for maybe some snow soon in my area!
welcome back geek
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Ladies and gentlemen, it's good to be back. How's everybody doing? I for one am looking forward for maybe some snow soon in my area!


Good to see you Kid . Remember my advice:)
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
959 AM CST THU DEC 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ARKANSAS...

CACHE RIVER NEAR PATTERSON AFFECTING JACKSON AND WOODRUFF COUNTIES


RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL
FORECASTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING PERIODS OF
FLOODING...EVENING FORECASTS ARE REISSUED WITH UPDATED RAINFALL
FORECASTS.

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED STAGE DATA PLOTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE WEB PAGE AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
Quoting VR46L:


GS thats what the GFS 384 model tends to do, gets you ready for drama and sensationalist weather, and then. its bursts the bubble once the hype has started.


its not 384 hours, its 120s
White Christmas for Washington D.C?............Top 5 Greatest Christmas Snows
1962 ... 5.4”
1909 ... 4.5”
1969 ... 4.3”
1902 ... 1.0”
1935 ... 0.6”............................................ .nws says only about an 8 percent chance this year
Quoting yoboi:




who did it?


Who stands to gain $ from having it rain in the desert?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


its not 384 hours, its 120s


Sorry I didnt notice the date ...my mistake .:)
Quoting wxmod:


Who stands to gain $ from having it rain in the desert?




Why don't you share with it us??




Many plants and animals.
Quoting wxmod:


Who stands to gain $ from having it rain in the desert?

Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
The front just made it through here. With all that weather out in the Gulf all week, not one drop of rain.


You are not the only one. Just a trace of rain fell at my house north of Orlando on each of the last 3 days. I actually was kind of shocked at this. The storms on Monday, though heavy rain makers, were too isolated to bring a really widespread soaking to my area and the rest of the rain over the following two days either missed us entirely to the north or south, or fizzled out as it moved inland toward us. Nice and cool today though.
Quoting wxmod:


Who stands to gain $ from having it rain in the desert?
Nevada ain't the Atacama. It does rain at times there.
You know what causes rain in deserts? Atmospheric moisture.


(Click image to see an animation which clearly shows a wide band of moisture coming ashore near Southern California. See any contrails on this image? No? That's because the size and number of contrails pales in comparison to the scale of the system which ACTUALLY caused the rain).
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
913 AM PST THU DEC 13 2012

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...

.A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS STORM FAVORS THE HEAVIEST
SNOW FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH LIGHTER SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

NVZ037-040-140000-
/O.CON.KLKN.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121214T0000Z/
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...AUSTIN...AUSTIN SUMMIT...
EUREKA...DIAMOND VALLEY...PINTO SUMMIT...TONOPAH...ROUND MOUNTAIN
913 AM PST THU DEC 13 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WARNING HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM
PST THIS AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES FOR MOST VALLEYS...WITH 8
TO 16 INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET.

* TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: AUSTIN...AUSTIN SUMMIT...EUREKA...DIAMOND
VALLEY...PINTO SUMMIT...TONOPAH...ROUND MOUNTAIN

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW PACKED MAKING TRAVEL
DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO RECONSIDER
TRAVEL PLANS OR CARRY A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH THEIR
VEHICLE.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT
HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=EKO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS CALL 511 OR VISIT
WWW.NVROADS.COM.
&&

$$
Quoting MrMixon:
You know what causes rain in deserts? Atmospheric moisture.


(Click image to see an animation which clearly shows a wide band of moisture coming ashore near Southern California. See any contrails on this image? No? That's because the size and number of contrails pales in comparison to the scale of the system which ACTUALLY caused the rain).




Stop making sence, Mr. Mixon.

These multi-government conspiracy theories are so much more juicy.



Quoting fireflymom:
Many plants and animals.





Cacti, to be specific.






So......................will Chicago break or move into a tie for the latest measurable snowfall of the season. That day is Sunday, when they'll get their *** handed to them by the Green Bay Packers. And flurries and/or light snow is forecasted on the back side of a system skirting through the region Saturday into Sunday.

We. Shall. See.




Quoting TomballTXPride:




So......................will Chicago break or move into a tie for the latest measurable snowfall of the season. That day is Sunday, when they'll get their *** handed to them by Green Bay. And flurries and/or light snow is forecasted on the back side of a system skirting through the region Saturday into Sunday.

We. Shall. See.




..........
Quoting LargoFl:
I like how they have all the southern areas listed as possible.
Cold day in S FL 67 and Overcast in WPB!
Quoting yoboi:




who did it?





THEY!
Quoting hydrus:
I like how they have all the southern areas listed as possible.
i think when they printed that chart..the white didnt fill in the possible box..you and I know..we aint getting snow lol..
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Nevada ain't the Atacama. It does rain at times there.


Still working for Heartland?
Quoting MrMixon:
You know what causes rain in deserts? Atmospheric moisture.


(Click image to see an animation which clearly shows a wide band of moisture coming ashore near Southern California. See any contrails on this image? No? That's because the size and number of contrails pales in comparison to the scale of the system which ACTUALLY caused the rain).


MrMixon,
The "contrails" were on Tuesday and caused the moisture laden north Pacific front to dip far south. The "contrails" have been absorbed into the front. Weather modification does not necessarily happen instantly. It results from 'nudging' natural events, as described in the US military document "Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025" Look it up.
Dec 01 High 62 (42) plus 20 F anomaly
Dec 02 High 67 (42) plus 25 F anomaly
Dec 03 High 70 (41) plus 29 F anomaly
Dec 04 High 61 (41) plus 20 F anomaly
Dec 05 High 46 (40) plus 06 F anomaly
Dec 06 High 51 (40) plus 11 F anomaly
Dec 07 High 49 (39) plus 10 F anomaly
Dec 08 High 47 (39) plus 08 F anomaly
Dec 09 High 51 (38) plus 13 F anomaly
Dec 10 High 41 (38) plus 03 F anomaly
Dec 11 High 37 (38) minus 01 F anomaly
Dec 12 High 44 (37) plus 07 F anomaly
Dec 13 @noon High 43 (37) plus 06 F anomaly

I have had just one day of a below normal anomaly and it was only -1 F from average. On average for the first 13 days of December we are plus 12 F above average for the month. That includes today, which we still have not reached our high as of yet, which is supposed to be around 50.

Looks like winter will not be making an appearance for this season. :(
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
The front just made it through here. With all that weather out in the Gulf all week, not one drop of rain.


Sorry to here that Chillin. The front went through here this morning. It's currently 69° and sunny. We have been seeing 85-86 all week and very humid. My three day rainfall totals reach 2.25. We needed it badly.
Thanks Dr. M; easy to forget living in the Northern Hemisphere that "tropical" cyclones are almost year round when you consider the reverse seasons in the Southern one; then you throw Winter storms in both Hemispheres on top of the equation and you have year round pandemonium worldwide courtesy of that damn Coreolis effect and low pressure systems....... :)
Glad it's finally cooling down here in Florida.
It was in the low 80s yesterday.
Planning to sit around a backyard fire Saturday night, so hopefully the wind will have died down by then!
AOI out in the Atlantic.


Quoting Chicklit:
Glad it's finally cooling down here in Florida.
It was in the low 80s yesterday.
Planning to sit around a backyard fire Saturday night, so hopefully the wind will have died down by then!
Quoting Chicklit:
Glad it's finally cooling down here in Florida.
It was in the low 80s yesterday.
Planning to sit around a backyard fire Saturday night, so hopefully the wind will have died down by then!
yes feels GREAT outside now,mid 60's i guess and a good breeze.
I take it back Hydrus lol.............
Quoting CybrTeddy:
AOI out in the Atlantic.




In the only possible location in the Atlantic at the moment surrounded by daunting sheer on all sides except that little pocket near the coc and off the the NE...

Link

A tough nut to crack IMHO.........But a great watch to see what happens.
Quoting wxmod:
MrMixon,
The "contrails" were on Tuesday and caused the moisture laden north Pacific front to dip far south. The "contrails" have been absorbed into the front. Weather modification does not necessarily happen instantly. It results from 'nudging' natural events, as described in the US military document "Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025" Look it up.


I've seen no proof that the contrails in the image you posted are anything other than commercial contrails due to normal flights going where they normally go. Heard of Occam's Razor? I've seen the document you cited before. Speculation on future capability does not equate to active implementation.

Just because a jet flew over an area doesn't mean the gov't is controlling the weather there:

Quoting LargoFl:
I take it back Hydrus lol.............
Largo, I was living in Scotland at that time but my sister was here in Key West. She wrote and told me that she had to scrape ice off the windshield of the car. The windchill was such that it froze the dew.
ppl lets go 2 weather chat and talk about the cold weather for next weekend and for christmas
85. MTWX
Good sites for anyone planning on traveling by car over the holidays.

Current Snow Coverage


National Snow Depth Loop

Current Highway conditions (most states update twice a day)

National Traffic and Road Closure Information
Quoting kwgirl:
Largo, I was living in Scotland at that time but my sister was here in Key West. She wrote and told me that she had to scrape ice off the windshield of the car. The windchill was such that it froze the dew.


I was working at Bakers Haulover Beach Park and had just come out of the breakfast joint when it started. I immediately called my Mom. This was the only snow she ever saw in person. That morning, I witnessed Canadians swimming and taking cold water showers WHILE IT SNOWED... they are significantly tougher than me.

Quoting TomballTXPride:




Cacti, to be specific.

There are many trees that survive in the desert along with "many more plants". It is not just cacti!!! They serve the 'hummingbirds', and the monarchs for food along with native americans for food and water. The deserts have a unique coexistence that we have forgotten about.


Quoting MrMixon:
You know what causes rain in deserts? Atmospheric moisture.


(Click image to see an animation which clearly shows a wide band of moisture coming ashore near Southern California. See any contrails on this image? No? That's because the size and number of contrails pales in comparison to the scale of the system which ACTUALLY caused the rain).



The moisture levels in that system are actually really low, they are just probably relatively high for a desert region like that. It's mostly due to upper energy/cold air aloft. That low of moisture is typical behind big winter fronts here.

Low moisture, very low:





But don't worry, I'm not mentioning this for anything to do with contrails, I won't waste my time with such silliness in the first place.

I just thought I'd mention this strictly for meteorology purposes to show that the atmosphere is holding very little water in that region :)


Thankfully, low pressure systems are much more powerful over there than here, otherwise they wouldn't get any rain ever in such a dry and harsh atmosphere for rainfall. Deep moisture for them is deep layer dry air out to the east, lol.
Quoting kwgirl:
Largo, I was living in Scotland at that time but my sister was here in Key West. She wrote and told me that she had to scrape ice off the windshield of the car. The windchill was such that it froze the dew.


Wind chill is how cold it feels to exposed skin, It does not actually cool the temp down. If the temp is 20 outside the coldest your car can get is 20.

Edit: To put it in a way easier for florida ppl to understand, think heat index. The temp may be 90 but with humidity it feels like 105 but the actual temp is still 90
90. MTWX
Current Snow Depth:

Quoting LargoFl:
I take it back Hydrus lol.............
I remember that. Later that year we had cat-5 Anita form in the gulf..Glad she went the other direction.
Quoting nymore:


Wind chill is how cold it feels to exposed skin, It is not actually colder than the real temp. If the temp is 20 outside the coldest your car can get is 20.
Really? News to me. Why then do some leaves turn black when it is cold out, but not freezing, but the wind is blowing at 20-30 knots? So then the time she had to scrape ice, it actually got down to 32 degrees. Interesting. I always thought it was because of the wind.
Quoting kwgirl:
Largo, I was living in Scotland at that time but my sister was here in Key West. She wrote and told me that she had to scrape ice off the windshield of the car. The windchill was such that it froze the dew.


Well not to be mean, but she was highly exaggerating, freezing temps or anything near have never been recorded in the lower keys.

Also, wind chill wouldn't cause that anyway because wind chill is an equation derived in order to most accurately depict what cold air with a certain amount of wind feels like to the nerve cells in the human body. However, wind chill does not make the temperature any lower, its just the cold air, lacking energy, when it is wind whipped it has greater ability to pull heat away from your body, since thermal energy is a conservative system.

With that said, if anything, wind whipped cold air would help prevent dew from freezing or forming, because wind helps to prevent dew from forming.

You can see the coldest temps ever recorded in Key West via this link to NOAA:

Link

Quoting kwgirl:
Really? News to me. Why then do some leaves turn black when it is cold out, but not freezing, but the wind is blowing at 20-30 knots? So then the time she had to scrape ice, it actually got down to 32 degrees. Interesting. I always thought it was because of the wind.
I edited my post to make it easier to understand for southern folks
65) Boo! Go Bears! Still sunny in C IL, 45 with 20mph from the S.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS POINT...BUT THE THREAT EXISTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN OR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WIND...AND COASTAL FLOODING EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Quoting JustPlantIt:
There are also some unique places in Texas that afford wildlife that inhabits desert areas. Unique because of drought and/or desert. AGAIN.... I am not the science major, BUT...  nature is a part of  this. IF I HAD A DEGREE, I would study the animals in these environments. Global warming, animals and insects are the clues for what will happen. AND it is especially the insect!


98. MTWX
Quoting nymore:


Wind chill is how cold it feels to exposed skin, It does not actually cool the temp down. If the temp is 20 outside the coldest your car can get is 20.

To put it in a way easier for florida ppl to understand, think heat index. The temp may be 90 but with humidity it feels like 105 but the actual temp is still 90


Not necessarily... Wind can cool the surface of the car to the point droplets can freeze... same way frost can occur even when the air temp is above 32 degrees. Guess what I'm getting at is the surface temp of the car is lower than the air temp (think opposite of fog)



WINTER STORM NAMES - FIRST THREE
Quoting MTWX:


Not necessarily... Wind can cool the surface of the car to the point droplets can freeze... same way frost can occur even when the air temp is above 32 degrees. Guess what I'm getting at is the surface temp of the car is lower than the air temp (think opposite of fog)


You can get frost on the ground if the temp is above freezing because the actual temp is taken at approx 6 ft above the ground. But the wind does not lower the actual temp. It may feel colder to you (windchill) but not the thermometer

Take a fan and turn it on and put a thermometer in front of it the temp will not change because of the wind.
Very bad there in Samoa...

Meanwhile look at that huge 948 mb south of Greenland



Quoting nymore:

You can get frost on the ground if the temp is above freezing because the actual temp is taken at approx 6 ft above the ground. But the wind does not lower the actual temp.

Take a fan and turn it on and put a thermometer in front of it the temp will not change because of the wind.

The temperature of the water on the cars surface can cool further than the surrounding air temperature due to evaporation though.
I was looking for pics about the West VA highway explosion the other day...this is what I found

Quoting nymore:

You can get frost on the ground if the temp is above freezing because the actual temp is taken at approx 6 ft above the ground. But the wind does not lower the actual temp.

Take a fan and turn it on and put a thermometer in front of it the temp will not change because of the wind.

unless the thermometer is wet and the air is not saturated, that's the whole idea behind wet bulb temperature.
105. MTWX
Quoting nymore:

You can get frost on the ground if the temp is above freezing because the actual temp is taken at approx 6 ft above the ground. But the wind does not lower the actual temp.

Take a fan and turn it on and put a thermometer in front of it the temp will not change because of the wind.


If the temperature of the car is lower than 32 degrees even if the air temp is higher, the water will still freeze, is the point I was trying to make. I understand what you are getting at. Has nothing to do with wind... (I typed before I really thought it through ;))
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well not to be mean, but she was highly exaggerating, freezing temps or anything near have never been recorded in the lower keys.

Also, wind chill wouldn't cause that anyway because wind chill is an equation derived in order to most accurately depict what cold air with a certain amount of wind feels like to the nerve cells in the human body. However, wind chill does not make the temperature any lower, its just the cold air, lacking energy, when it is wind whipped it has greater ability to pull heat away from your body, since thermal energy is a conservative system.

With that said, if anything, wind whipped cold air would help prevent dew from freezing or forming, because wind helps to prevent dew from forming.

You can see the coldest temps ever recorded in Key West via this link to NOAA:

Link

That's my point. My sister has lived in the cold North and knows what she is talking about. She did say it was a thin film, but it was ice. So the temps had to dip down enough for the ice to freeze. That's why I always thought it had to be the wind to cause that.
Quoting nymore:


Wind chill is how cold it feels to exposed skin, It does not actually cool the temp down. If the temp is 20 outside the coldest your car can get is 20.

Edit: To put it in a way easier for florida ppl to understand, think heat index. The temp may be 90 but with humidity it feels like 105 but the actual temp is still 90
The air temp may be 90 but I bet your car is hotter in the direct sun than 90.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:

The temperature of the water on the cars surface can cool further than the surrounding air temperature due to evaporation though.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

unless the thermometer is wet and the air is not saturated, that's the whole idea behind wet bulb temperature.


Agreed but we were talking windchill not evaporational cooling, which by the way works very well in Arizona
Quoting MTWX:


Not necessarily... Wind can cool the surface of the car to the point droplets can freeze... same way frost can occur even when the air temp is above 32 degrees. Guess what I'm getting at is the surface temp of the car is lower than the air temp (think opposite of fog)




That is true if its at or below freezing. Water on a car will not freeze if it's windy and only in the low 40's plain and simple. The only way to due so is if you super cool the surface, or, if its extremely dry and you continue to place water on the surface until enough evaporative cooling takes place, but that would be very difficult, and would have to be practiced with intention.


Dew can freeze when temps are above freezing during a radiational cooling event where the wind goes calm or near calm because surfaces cool much more efficiently. The air is poor conductor of heat, thus, surfaces will cooler first, causing the air near the surface to cool faster then above, proving calm or near calm or sheltered low lying conditions. However, wind whipping across a surface will prevent that. windy weather and temps in the 40's will not freeze dew. Its really not that complicated...


Quoting nymore:


Agreed but we were talking windchill not evaporational cooling, which by the way works very well in Arizona


Sorry, I thought we were talking about ice forming above 32F.



WE'RE GOING TO GREENLAND!!!!!!!!!!!!




Quoting kwgirl:
The air temp may be 90 but I bet your car is hotter in the direct sun than 90.
I bet if you put a thermometer out in the direct sun it will read much higher than the actual temp but that is not the actual temp.

Think heat index it feels hotter to you but not the telephone pole

FWIW I live in Northern MN and understand Windchill and its effects quite well
Quoting kwgirl:
That's my point. My sister has lived in the cold North and knows what she is talking about. She did say it was a thin film, but it was ice. So the temps had to dip down enough for the ice to freeze. That's why I always thought it had to be the wind to cause that.



Well the weather service has no record of temps cold enough to due so. If it was a calm clear night, I could believe that it was locally cold enough for a frost as temperatures can vary dramatically over short distances on calm cold nights. However, although not impossible it would have taken ideal radiational cooling to cause that.

But from what you told me, it was the wind that she said caused it. I'm really not trying to be harsh, just stating the nature of the physics involved in this process, either she doesn't know what she is talking about, or she just made a mistake recalling the story to you.

Sorry if it feels like I'm arguing, I don't want to come off cold or arrogant, I'm just trying to give some weather tips.
Well this goes to show you that you can still learn something new. So windchill is basically for living things and not inanimate objects. The temp records for Key West have been at the airport which is on the south side of the Island near the water. It must be warmer on that side of the island to account for the lack of 32 degrees and my sister telling she had to scrape ice. I guess you can't argue with "official" records. However, in my mind they are suspect. My sister would never lie to me!LOL
Quoting kwgirl:
Well this goes to show you that you can still learn something new. So windchill is basically for living things and not inanimate objects.


Exactly now you own it
Quoting bappit:

Interesting link, but when I plug in khgx it says site not available. Rats.


Try using the map link in the upper right. They are based on bufkit profiles, so if the site you entered doesn't have a bufkit profile available, it wont show data for that site.
Quoting kwgirl:
The air temp may be 90 but I bet your car is hotter in the direct sun than 90.


And here in TX in the summer you can add another "0" if its out in the sun for more than 20 mins :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Very bad there in Samoa...

Meanwhile look at that huge 948 mb south of Greenland



Shows well here.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


WINTER STORM NAMES - FIRST THREE


Speaking of that. Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?
Off topic:

Someone was asking for the science on this a couple weeks ago, came across this paper:

Consciousness and the double-slit interference pattern: Six experiments

Link
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Speaking of that. Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?


I think there were some smart ones too.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Speaking of that. Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?


??? who?
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Speaking of that. Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?


Name-calling?
2012 Geminid Meteor Shower

For any who might be interested, reposting here some of my comments posted earlier on LowerCal's Astronomy blog -

Wanted to check in with first hand report on those Geminids.. In fact I posted quick comment on Dr Jeff's blog last night, in between watching the Sandy Relief concert which was awesome in it's on right... although I doubt many readers there paid attention to the heads-up I tried to offer.

But WOW, was I surprised, went out for a casual look-see at 10:50 PM local CST and in 10 minutes I quickly saw 5 meteors, plus another 4 of those peripherals... Back / forth while concert was on, but later spent night out till near 3:30 AM. Had a gorgeous clear view with cold temps, lol, which turned out my coldest night yet here with 31F low, my 1st light freeze and frost covering everything... But man, was it worth it!

Altogether, clearly saw and counted 58 Geminids! Plus, another 40-50 of the peripheral faint short burst "maybes", lol, given how fleeting they are... Most were short duration, but saw one near 11:45 PM that was an incredible beauty, lasted over 2-3 seconds moving due E-W... My best viewing was looking up, facing west (or WNW).. as time went on early morn hrs, seemed most were roughly ranging between Pleiades and Orion... all traveling generally east to west (SE-NW to ENE-WSW)... Saw as many as 3 within one minute period, to stretches of 3-4 to as long as 7-10 minutes seeing none... LOL, but that's when those "maybes" also occurred, so... As for best viewing time, who knows, there was excellent activity as soon as went out to look!

IMHO, sure appears the 2012 Geminids will rank the best meteor shower of the year, at least in numbers / activity! And last night's view was definitely the most I've seen, highest count since the 2001 Leonids, which I now measure all others up against...

Hey, and all this occurring on the night BEFORE the predicted peak! If tonight's activity matches or exceeds what I saw last night it'll be a spectacle worth losing sleep over, again, lol!

Best wishes for clear skies,
Great viewing all!


EVAN A CAT 3.....
Blob south of Panama.
There is a low east of Evan with a well-defined circulation and thunderstorm activity.
128. VR46L
Quoting hydrus:
Shows well here.


Umm thats put a dampener on my evening was getting used to 4 whole days of nice but frosty weather...Oh Well
119 FunnelVortex: Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?

Nope, why would I care about that?
I'm complaining cuz they won't do tricks like "Shake hands, Brutus" or "Roll over, Caesar".
Good evening. Here are some links to really not so good news from Samoa pounded by Evan.

Samoa reels as tropical cyclone strikes
Updated 7:53 AM Friday Dec 14, 2012

Cyclone Evan, which has already reportedly claimed the lives of three people, continues to batter Samoa today and is expected to intensify with winds up to 145km/h.

At least three people, two of them children, were reported to have been killed in the cyclone overnight.

Samoa's Meteorology Division this morning issued a special weather bulletin, predicting winds will pick up to between 120km/h and 145km/h within the next 6-12 hours.

More on New Zealand Herald


Telefone interview with bad news and video footage:
Samoa braces for second lashing from Cyclone Evan


Three reported dead as cyclone pounds Samoa
updated 08:57

Published: 5:48AM Friday December 14, 2012 Source: ONE News

Three people are feared to have been killed in Samoa as Cyclone Evan makes a u-turn over the country and heads back southwest after already causing massive damage.

The cyclone slammed into the west coast of Samoa yesterday before stalling over the islands, bringing torrential rains and intense winds that brought down trees and buildings, and causing widespread flooding.

The capital Apia has been largely evacuated, phones and electricity are out across much of the country, and tourists in many areas have fled inland from the coast.

It is believed two of the reported fatalities could have been children.

The storm is now a Category 3 tropical cyclone and is gathering force as it roars back to the southwest, where it is expected to pass over vulnerable parts of Tonga before arriving in Fiji on Sunday.

More with photos

Quoting aspectre:
119 FunnelVortex: Are idiots still complaining about winter storms being named?

Nope, why would I care about that?
I'm complaining cuz they won't do tricks like "Shake hands, Brutus" or "Roll over, Caesar".


What exactly do winter storms have to do with dogs?
Quoting barbamz:
Good evening. Here are some links to really not so good news from Samoa pounded by Evan.

Samoa reels as tropical cyclone strikes
Updated 7:53 AM Friday Dec 14, 2012

Cyclone Evan, which has already reportedly claimed the lives of three people, continues to batter Samoa today and is expected to intensify with winds up to 145km/h.

At least three people, two of them children, were reported to have been killed in the cyclone overnight.

Samoa's Meteorology Division this morning issued a special weather bulletin, predicting winds will pick up to between 120km/h and 145km/h within the next 6-12 hours.

More on New Zealand Herald


Telefone interview with bad news and video footage:
Samoa braces for second lashing from Cyclone Evan


Three reported dead as cyclone pounds Samoa
updated 08:57

Published: 5:48AM Friday December 14, 2012 Source: ONE News

Three people are feared to have been killed in Samoa as Cyclone Evan makes a u-turn over the country and heads back southwest after already causing massive damage.

The cyclone slammed into the west coast of Samoa yesterday before stalling over the islands, bringing torrential rains and intense winds that brought down trees and buildings, and causing widespread flooding.

The capital Apia has been largely evacuated, phones and electricity are out across much of the country, and tourists in many areas have fled inland from the coast.

It is believed two of the reported fatalities could have been children.

The storm is now a Category 3 tropical cyclone and is gathering force as it roars back to the southwest, where it is expected to pass over vulnerable parts of Tonga before arriving in Fiji on Sunday.

More with photos



Considering two are children, they were most likely carried away by surge or floods and diddnt know how to swim.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Very bad there in Samoa...

Meanwhile look at that huge 948 mb south of Greenland



Here is a poes (NOAA19) view of your Greenland storm

Quoting nymore:
Here is a poes (NOAA19) view of your Greenland storm



I <3 Mid-latitude cyclones...
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Ladies and gentlemen, it's good to be back. How's everybody doing? I for one am looking forward for maybe some snow soon in my area!

It..can't..be..possible..
I'm doing good.

Good afternoon everyone, wonderful weather today, barely a cloud in the sky.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Considering two are children, they were most likely carried away by surge or floods and diddnt know how to swim.


From the New Zealand Herald report

Last night there were reports of widespread flash floods, blocked roads, damaged buildings and evacuations.

Radio Samoa reported that one of the victims, a man, drowned in the Vaisigano, a river that runs alongside the famous Aggie Grey's hotel in Apia.

The river burst its banks, and local media said Aggie Grey's had been badly damaged.
It is the same river where a New Zealand teenager perished in March.

Taiana Pilitati, 18, from Wellington, drowned while desperately trying to save her 8-year-old sister Vaiola after they were hit by a large wave while swimming. Taiana was a cousin for former All Blacks Tana Umaga and Ne'emia Tialata.

It was not known last night how the other two storm victims died.

Samoa newspaper editor Terry Tavita told Radio New Zealand people were still missing.

"In fact there are a couple missing from my village which is about five minutes from downtown (Apia)."

The amount of warning locals got before the cyclone pounded the region would need to be reviewed, he said.

"Some people were taken by surprise by this cyclone. Yesterday we drove around the villages, the cyclone was picking up and some of the people said they didn't get enough warning."



Remember, Samoa just recovered from the devastating tsunami in 2009. Unfortunately Evan will cause a lot of widespread destruction again.
Typhoon Evan






Source
132 FunnelVortex: What exactly do winter storms have to do with dogs?

Ask TheWeatherChannel, they're the ones givin' 'em doggy names.
Quoting kwgirl:
The air temp may be 90 but I bet your car is hotter in the direct sun than 90.
Or: Beer tastes better at 30+ degrees but I have been known to drink it at room temperature when the wind is blowing.
Quoting wxchaser97:

It..can't..be..possible..
I'm doing good.

Good afternoon everyone, wonderful weather today, barely a cloud in the sky.


Oh it is my friend :) And yes, today is a beautiful yet chilly day here in NOVA, about 42° and sunny.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Oh it is my friend :) And yes, today is a beautiful yet chilly day here in NOVA, about 42° and sunny.

I am surprised though that it was removed.

We have basically the same weather in SE MI.
any new model runs for the potential nor'easter ??
Quoting kwgirl:
Well this goes to show you that you can still learn something new. So windchill is basically for living things and not inanimate objects. The temp records for Key West have been at the airport which is on the south side of the Island near the water. It must be warmer on that side of the island to account for the lack of 32 degrees and my sister telling she had to scrape ice. I guess you can't argue with "official" records. However, in my mind they are suspect. My sister would never lie to me!LOL


Learning is always a good thing :)
Quoting aspectre:
132 FunnelVortex: What exactly do winter storms have to do with dogs?

Ask TheWeatherChannel, they're the ones givin' 'em doggy names.


haha
You made me laugh out loud in my quiet office. Now everyone knows I wasn't working for a minute. :)
The local mets keep getting excited about next week with each passing day.They keep saying "stay tuned".They're getting people's hops up for something a week+ out.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The local mets keep getting excited about next week with each passing day.They keep saying "stay tuned".They're getting people's hops up for something a week+ out.

This is the last paragraph from the area discussion from the NWS in Detroit. There could be a storm for the east coast.

The upper low stalls briefly over Ontario as the trough becomes negatively tilted sending another
weak vort max and a cool air mass through northern lower Tuesday leading to a low chance of light
snow showers. Then as the model solutions become more divergent next week there, a strong +160 knot
jet max will enter the nw Contiguous U.S. which looks to dig a west coast trough and could lead to
another large system over the eastern Contiguous U.S. later in the week, but that is about all there
is to say currently on that system this far out.

Quoting washingtonian115:
The local mets keep getting excited about next week with each passing day.They keep saying "stay tuned".They're getting people's hops up for something a week+ out.



I'm watching, and I'm really excited... for a chilly, windy rain!

~No One Ever
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Or: Beer tastes better at 30+ degrees but I have been known to drink it at room temperature when the wind is blowing.


Ditto my comment in #145. You guys are blowing my covert browsing! :)
Samoa told to brace for more
Last updated 09:59 14/12/2012

LATEST: Cyclone Evan is set to hit Apia again this morning with greater force, after reportedly killing three people - including two children - yesterday.

The cyclone has already inflicted massive damage on the Samoan capital while details around the fatalities are not yet available.

Winds close to the cyclone's centre are predicted to increase to 120 kmh to 145 kmh within the next 6-12 hours.

A special weather bulletin said Upolu could expect to see high gusts of wind up to 160 kmh and damaging storm surges of 3.6 metres to 4.3m.

Phone lines are still down in Samoa and the country's High Commissioner in New Zealand has been struggling to get updated information.

"We don't have any update (on whether the next phase of the cyclone has hit). We've been trying to call the Disaster Management Office but have had no luck," a spokesman said.

He could confirm that at least three people were dead - two children and one adult. But did not have detail on ages or nationalities.

Samoan newspaper editor Tevita Terrance said wind gusts of up to 112 kph were being experienced.

"There are several missing people at the moment. The damage is pretty extensive," he told RNZ.

More with raw video from Reuters
Quoting washingtonian115:
The local mets keep getting excited about next week with each passing day.They keep saying "stay tuned".They're getting people's hops up for something a week out.


That is why I call them weather terrorists because the next storm is the worst one ever, even if they have to manufacture it.

Here is nice example

">

just for fun here is one more

">

What a couple of dolts
Quoting WxGeekVA:



I'm watching, and I'm really excited... for a chilly, windy rain!

~No One Ever
Lol.During that afternoon as Sandy was approaching and the wind was blowing hard I was getting smacked in the face with rain.That stuff really does hurt.My hands were numb wet and cold.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.During that afternoon as Sandy was approaching and the wind was blowing hard I was getting smacked in the face with rain.That stuff really does hurt.My hands were numb wet and cold.


I didn't go outside... I was too busy inside being sick :/
winds gusting over on the east coast now.....
HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$


Source and many more photos:
Frightening night for Chch pair in Samoa
ANNA TURNER
Last updated 10:24 14/12/2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:



I'm watching, and I'm really excited... for a chilly, windy rain!

~No One Ever


Actually I love events like those; it's great lazy/cuddling/sleeping weather LOL.
water temps still warm especially under cuba huh
Quoting wxgeek723:


Actually I love events like those; it's great lazy/cuddling/sleeping weather LOL.
But it's not pretty to look at.Snow is also a cheap alternative from nature to make slushees :).My family does it before the animals come back out...
There has got be be Hurricane force winds in that 947mb low pressure system south of Greenland.YIKES


Despite the reports and forecasts from Samoa Typhoon Evan seems to head a bit (edit: much!, edit edit: but now several hours later south again!!) to the northwest surrounding Samoa, avoiding a second direct hit? This would be really good.



Edit (Joint Typhoon Warning Center JTWC):


Quoting washingtonian115:
But it's not pretty to look at.Snow is also a cheap alternative from nature to make slushees :).My family does it before the animals come back out...

Or sometimes during a snowstorm I'll go get a large coke Slurpee from 7/11, mmmm.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Snow is also a cheap alternative from nature to make slushees :).My family does it before the animals come back out...

Reminded me of one of my fave Zappa songs - "Don't Eat the Yellow Snow"
There is a new blog from Christopher C. Burt on Evan, a thyphoon which does not get much love by the blog comments on this site by Jeff Masters though the entry is dedicated to Evan ;-)

Samoan Cyclone History

Good night everybody from Germany (with snow, then rain on frozen soil = dangerous ice on its roads in some regions; thawing the next days)
this blog is a great source of facebook pictures, especially 103 and that one earlier with the trailer houses.
Quoting barbamz:
Typhoon Evan






Source


We don't have Typhoons down here in the SW Pacific. They are called Tropical Cyclones.
.
Quoting AussieStorm:


We don't have Typhoons down here in the SW Pacific. They are called Tropical Cyclones.


O.K. Thanks, Aussi. Cyclone Evan. You'll fill in now with further news. I hit the cushion.
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER THIRTEEN (13) FOR SAMOA
ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 132200 UTC OR 12:00 P.M
FRIDAY 14TH DECEMBER 2012

.............. Hurricane warning remains in effect for Upolu……………..

.............. Hurricane watch remains in effect for Savaii……………..

……….. Flood Advisory remains in effect for low lying areas due to heavy rain ……….

Tropical Cyclone Evan was moving north at 10 mph and is located at about 13.28 south, 171.56 west or 34 miles north-northeast of Apia, 41 miles northeast of Faleolo or 47 miles north-northeast of Avao at 131900 UTC or 9:00 a.m. this morning. TC Evan is expected to move west-southwest and may relocate at about 39 miles north-northwest of Apia at 5pm this evening.

Expected winds:

Hurricane force winds of 70-95 mph within 15 nautical miles from the centre
Storm force winds of 55-70 mph within 25 nautical miles from the centre.
Gale force winds of 40-55 mph within 40 miles from the centre

Forecast

For Upolu: Southern side: East to southeast winds of 50-70 mph with higher gusts at times mainly at exposed areas.
Northern side: East to northeast winds of 50-70 mph with higher gusts at times mainly at exposed areas.
Poor visibility in heavy rain. Damaging storm surges of 12-16 feet and very rough seas. Periods of occasional rain, moderate to heavy falls at some areas with thunderstorms.

For Savaii: Southerly winds of 50-70 mph, with higher gusts mainly at exposed areas. Poor visibility in heavy rain. Seas very rough with damaging storm surge of 12-16 feet. Periods of rain, heavy at times with thunderstorms.



The next Special Weather Bulletin will be issued at 3.00 p.m. today.







Evan ain't going to be nice for Fiji, a Cat 4.
Quoting plutorising:
this blog is a great source of facebook pictures, especially 103 and that one earlier with the trailer houses.


yep...

Guys check out posts 101 and 103 if you haven't
Quoting barbamz:


O.K. Thanks, Aussi. Then Cyclone Evan. You'll fill in now. :-)

Fiji met is calling it Hurricane Evan.
Quoting AussieStorm:


We don't have Typhoons down here in the SW Pacific. They are called Tropical Cyclones.


The name is for al southern hemisphere storms
For West Palm Beach...Long range forecast has 60 has the high for Christmas Eve day...

someone is ready for doom!!!!
BRING IT ON!!!!



see TWC site
Flagstaff, Arizona has a STORM:CON of 6/10 over the next 24-36 hours as the first major winter storm of the season makes its way through there.

Would not be surprised to see it named "Draco".

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Flagstaff, Arizona has a STORM:CON of 6/10 over the next 24-36 hours as the first major winter storm of the season makes its way through there.

Would not be surprised to see it named "Draco".



no storm:com given anywhere yet... what re you saying...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Flagstaff, Arizona has a STORM:CON of 6/10 over the next 24-36 hours as the first major winter storm of the season makes its way through there.

Would not be surprised to see it named "Draco".



What was the third winter storm?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no storm:com given anywhere yet... what re you saying...

I don't know where you've been but The Weather Channel has been saying all day that Flagstaff has a STORM:CON of 6.

Quoting KoritheMan:


What was the third winter storm?

The one up in the northern Plains that produced nearly 20 inches of snow in some locations.
Quoting KoritheMan:


What was the third winter storm?


Caesar was declared in the upper Midwest a half week ago. I got 4" of snow from that system.
Morning Aussie!
This has the look of a system that's about to go beyond Category 3 status.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This has the look of a system that's about to go beyond Category 3 status.

Yeah...it's clearing out that eye.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This has the look of a system that's about to go beyond Category 3 status.


What are those little islands?
Quoting Grothar:


What are those little islands?


They could be geographical errors.
Evening Sensei.
Quoting Grothar:


What are those little islands?

I thought they were Somoa and American Somoa
Quoting Grothar:


What are those little islands?


Ironic...

Quoting PedleyCA:
Evening Sensei.


Good evening, Grasshopper.
Quoting Doppler22:

I thought they were Somoa and American Somoa


I was waiting for TA to answer.
Quoting Doppler22:
I thought the islands were Somoa and The American Somoa


Somebody missed the joke.
Okay, from now on I will worry about this for you. You don't have to worry about this anymore. I’ll look into it and I will let you know what I find out.
Sorry, that's what you are supposed to tell people about end of the world rumors according to the experts.
The Barometer Bob show is about to start, guest this week will be Michael Clark from the BAM Chase Team at BAMChase.Net.

Join me in Storm Chat here
Quoting Grothar:


What are those little islands?


Water spacers?
200. etxwx
Quoting bappit:
Okay, from now on I will worry about this for you. You don't have to worry about this anymore. I’ll look into it and I will let you know what I find out.


And with that in mind, here's one less thing to worry about:

Big asteroid flying by, no threat to Earth
By Irene Klotz
Wed Dec 12, 2012
(Reuters) - A large asteroid that flies in nearly the same orbit as Earth will make a close pass by the planet, but there's no chance of an impact - at least for hundreds of years, astronomers said on Wednesday.

The asteroid, named Toutatis, flies by Earth every four years. During its closest approach on Wednesday, the celestial rock will pass about 4.3 million miles (7 million km) from Earth, which is about 18 times farther away than the moon. "There is no danger of a collision with Earth," NASA astronomer Lance Benner said in a statement. The 0.6-mile (4.3-km) long asteroid circles the sun in an orbit that is very closely aligned with Earth's, making it a potentially hazardous object for the future.

The asteroid was first spotted in 1934 and its orbit was confirmed in 1989. In 2004, Toutatis passed by Earth just four times farther away than the moon, much closer than this week's encounter.

Astronomers are using radar and optical telescopes to get a better fix on the asteroid's location, its unusual spin and the flight path in hopes of refining estimates on where it will travel in the future. "We already know that Toutatis will not hit Earth for hundreds of years," Benner said. "These new observations will allow us to predict the asteroid's trajectory even farther into the future."

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Water spacers?


The Lost Islands of Jurassic Park?
Quoting Grothar:


What are those little islands?



Speed bumbs.
Good evening everyone. Evan looks very well organized, solid cloud pattern:



Interesting to note how low the ADT estimates are, they've had a significant low bias with this storm since the beginning. I suspect these numbers will shoot up if the eye clears out.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 DEC 2012 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 13:09:24 S Lon : 171:53:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 971.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 4.1


Center Temp : -79.9C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 56.6 degrees

This is likely a much more realistic estimate:

13/2352 UTC 13.0S 172.2W T5.5/5.5 EVAN -- Southeast Pacific
HAven't been paying attention to the tropics much but yeah this thing looks like it could explode.

OFFTOPIC:
My birthday was yesterday! It was awesome :D
Quoting Articuno:
HAven't been paying attention to the tropics much but yeah this thing looks like it could explode.

OFFTOPIC:
My birthday was yesterday! It was awesome :D

Happy belated birthday. My sisters is the day after Christmas, lucky and unlucky her.
Evan is having trouble clearing its pinhole eye out it appears.

Evening all...

Not surprised to see this storm over Samoa, given the recent major landfall on the southernmost of the Philippines.... seems activity was likely to just migrate south of the equator as the season progressed rather than fall off.

I hope this is not the beginning of an active and destructive season for the SPac.

TXPS26 KNES 140015
TCSWSP

A. 04P (EVAN)

B. 13/2352Z

C. 13.0S

D. 172.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SSMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND. DT=5.5
BASED ON WHITE EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG FOR 6.5 AND SURROUNDED BY CMG FOR
-1.0 EYE DEFINITION. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/1951Z 13.7S 171.6W SSMI
13/2046Z 13.4S 171.9W AMSU


...SWANSON
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all...

Not surprised to see this storm over Samoa, given the recent major landfall on the southernmost of the Philippines.... seems activity was likely to just migrate south of the equator as the season progressed rather than fall off.

I hope this is not the beginning of an active and destructive season for the SPac.


So do I. Sad fact is, if there is a Cyclone in the SW Pacific, it will hit somewhere.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Happy belated birthday. My sisters is the day after Christmas, lucky and unlucky her.

I'm 2 days before Christmas, along with my 2 cousins.
212. wxmod
Quoting MrMixon:


I've seen no proof that the contrails in the image you posted are anything other than commercial contrails due to normal flights going where they normally go. Heard of Occam's Razor? I've seen the document you cited before. Speculation on future capability does not equate to active implementation.

Just because a jet flew over an area doesn't mean the gov't is controlling the weather there:



MrMixon,

Those are not jet contrails. They are at sea level and the ships that are responsible for them are moving about 30mph. The so called "contrails" are also 20 or more miles WIDE. I don't care who made them or whether they are "intentional", they are geoengineering on a massive scale. And, they encouraged the Pacific storm front to sag further south than it historically would have. These are facts. And so is the desire of the US to "own" the weather by 2025.
Nice and cool out this evening...for south Fla. standards.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Evan is having trouble clearing its pinhole eye out it appears.


It could be that it's having trouble, or it could be that it's actually not all that well organized right now, which is the option I'm leaning towards after checking microwave.

For West Palm...They took away my 40's for lows...:(

Darn. GeoffreyWPB - I like to see you getting 40's so we can at least see 50's!
A local person got struck by lightning on October 11th, he was only 11 years old :( (Fort Myers lead the nation with the amount of days that thunder can be heard, at 94)

The Lee County School District has purchased new and improved lightning detection system which includes new Weatherbug stations at all high school. This is the brand new one I get to use at my school for the news every morning.

Thank you, Jesse Watlington, for increasing awareness about lightning strikes and ensuring that something like this will never happen at a sports practice.

May you Rest In Peace,
FM
Link
Quoting Dakster:
Darn. GeoffreyWPB - I like to see you getting 40's so we can at least see 50's!


Well Dakster...They still have our high at 60 Christmas Eve day. Though I doubt it.
219. wxmod
Heavy rain in the desert compliments of wx-mod-a-go-go.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 14 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (965 hPa) located at 13.0S 171.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 5 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center in northern semi-circle and within 24 NM from the center elsewhere

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center in the northern semi-circle and within 40 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection persistent over past 24 hours, EVAN has intensified over the last 12 hours. Cyclone lies under and upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. EVAN lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CMG surround yielding DT of 5.0, MET=5.0, and PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/2 4HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.1S 172.8W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.3S 174.4W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.6S 178.4W- 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
What happened to Nea's YouTube converter site?

It is now called "iwantsomeproof.com"
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What happened to Nea's YouTube converter site?
Huh?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What happened to Nea's YouTube converter site?

Ahhh man, it isn't working for me either.
Evan:

Quoting BahaHurican:
Huh?


Nea was nice enough to create a program where we can convert YouTube videos to the old embed codes.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What happened to Nea's YouTube converter site?

It is now called "iwantsomeproof.com"


It won't open for me either.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What happened to Nea's YouTube converter site?

It is now called "iwantsomeproof.com"

It still isn't working for me.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Nea was nice enough to create a program where we can convert YouTube videos to the old embed codes.


It looks like the old code is back on Youtube.
My favorite Scrooge...

Quoting Grothar:


It looks like the old code is back on Youtube.

It is back on YouTube.
Sorry, I know this isn't weather related but it is to show the old embed code is back up...

The Victors:
I like this one also...

Quoting wxchaser97:

It is back on YouTube.
Sorry, I know this isn't weather related but it is to show the old embed code is back up...

The Victors:


Yeah, sure.
Quoting wxchaser97:

It is back on YouTube.
Sorry, I know this isn't weather related but it is to show the old embed code is back up...

The Victors:


That lost to Ohio was really something...
Quoting wxmod:
Heavy rain in the desert compliments of wx-mod-a-go-go.

You are to weather modification as cyclonebuster is to underwater tunnels...both of you are relentless, annoying, and insanely out of touch with reality.

While you are entitled to your beliefs, it is rude to force them upon everyone else, so please stop posting about weather modification.
Children feared swept away in Samoan cyclone

Video

Police in Samoa say a number of children are presumed to have drowned after being swept away in a flooded river when Cyclone Evan hit the South Pacific nation.

The cyclone made landfall yesterday and caused widespread damage across the country, killing at least two people, cutting power, causing flooding, and ripping trees out of the ground.

Locals say it is the worst storm to hit the region in recent years, and a state of disaster has been declared.

There are now fears the storm could intensify to a category five cyclone as it tracks across the north of Tonga and then moves onto Fiji.

New Zealand's high commissioner to Samoa, Nick Hurley, says police have told him a number of children went missing near the main river in Samoa's capital Apia.

Many places in Samoa have only just rebuilt after being devastated by a tsunami in 2009.

Authorities in Fiji have gone into emergency preparation as the cyclone threatens to head towards the country.

Fiji's weather bureau says the storm could eventually become a category five cyclone - packing winds at its core of 360 kilometres per hour - and on its current path would hit both of the nation's main islands.

© ABC 2012
237. wxmod
"Measurements of changes in atmospheric molecular oxygen using a new interferometric technique show that the O2 content of air varies seasonally in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and is decreasing from year to year. "http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v358/n6389/a bs/358723a0.html

" At less than 15% oxygen, fires would not burn, and at greater than 25% oxygen, even wet organic matter would burn freely."
http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/c urrent/lectures/Perry_Samson_lectures/evolution_at m/index.html
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Nea was nice enough to create a program where we can convert YouTube videos to the old embed codes.
Ah....

Hadn't realized that. [prolly more like hadn't remembered... since I'm no good at embedding video in the first place...]
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Nea was nice enough to create a program where we can convert YouTube videos to the old embed codes.
Sorry about that; the web server is being migrated today, and won't be back up until tomorrow at the earliest, and possibly not until Monday (depending on how closely Comcast sticks to its schedule). In the meantime, as others have noted, YouTube seems to have re-enabled the old embed code, at least for the time being.
Quoting TomTaylor:
You are to weather modification as cyclonebuster is to underwater tunnels...both of you are relentless, annoying, and insanely out of touch with reality.

You can have your beliefs, but it is rude to force them upon everyone else; please stop posting about weather modification, thanks.


WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules
3. No monomania.

mon-o-ma-ni-a
1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject.
2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea.

wxmod has a severe case of this.
Quoting wxmod:


MrMixon,

Those are not jet contrails. They are at sea level and the ships that are responsible for them are moving about 30mph. The so called "contrails" are also 20 or more miles WIDE. I don't care who made them or whether they are "intentional", they are geoengineering on a massive scale. And, they encouraged the Pacific storm front to sag further south than it historically would have. These are facts. And so is the desire of the US to "own" the weather by 2025.


All I see are a bunch of unsupported claims.

Seriously, if weather modification was actually ongoing, one would assume meteorologists would have noticed something odd is going on.
242. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
You are to weather modification as cyclonebuster is to underwater tunnels...both of you are relentless, annoying, and insanely out of touch with reality.

You are entitled to your beliefs, but it is rude to force them upon everyone else; please stop posting about weather modification, thanks.


I have no intention of curtailing my posts about what I see as legitimate weather issues.
243. wxmod
Quoting KoritheMan:


All I see are a bunch of unsupported claims.

Seriously, if weather modification was actually ongoing, one would assume meteorologists would have noticed something odd is going on.


My claims are well supported. You have not followed my links, obviously.
Quoting wxmod:


My claims are well supported. You have not followed my links, obviously.

They really aren't supported well, nor is weather modification happening.
Quoting wxmod:


I have no intention of curtailing my posts about what I see as legitimate weather issues.
That's unfortunate. I think the blog would be a much better place without your posts cluttering up the blog with false information.

Also, as Aussie pointed out, monomania is not allowed on the blogs, so don't be surprised if some of your posts start disappearing.
Quoting AussieStorm:


WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules
3. No monomania.

mon-o-ma-ni-a
1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject.
2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea.

wxmod has a severe case of this.


Fortunately, there is a thing called "ignore user" and because of it I don't see any of his nonsense unless someone quotes him.
Quoting wxmod:


My claims are well supported. You have not followed my links, obviously.


I did follow that one you gave me about David Keith (?). If you have anymore, I'm all ears.

Also, I love how you obviously can't answer the last part of my post.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Fortunately, there is a thing called "ignore user" and because of it I don't see any of his nonsense unless someone quotes him.

Same here. I only noticed wxmod post cause someone else quoted them.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Fortunately, there is a thing called "ignore user" and because of it I don't see any of his nonsense unless someone quotes him.
Some of the pics are pretty.
Some pics of damage and flooding in Samoa:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/807447 6/Apia-slammed-as-cyclone-hits-Samoa

You have to click on the link at the left to see the photo gallery.

Damage looks quite extensive.
One of the great voices of our time...

G'nite, all.

I'll prolly look in around 2 a.m. my time...

Quoting BahaHurican:
Some pics of damage and flooding in Samoa:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/807447 6/Apia-slammed-as-cyclone-hits-Samoa

You have to click on the link at the left to see the photo gallery.

Damage looks quite extensive.


Thanks for the link. Damage is pretty bad in Samoa.

Tropical Cyclone Evan is expected to slowly move away from Samoa by the next day or so. The cyclone is also forecast to threaten Fiji by the weekend but is anticipated to become a weaker storm.
Quoting wxmod:

" At less than 15% oxygen, fires would not burn, and at greater than 25% oxygen, even wet organic matter would burn freely."



Ya know, I have always wondered about the carboniferous period, when O2 was 32.5. Fire would burn in a way hard to fathom. 165% of todays level.

Nice link wx, thanks.

I wonder other stuff too... when the moon was MUCH closer, how tidal was the water. Did it follow the moon with a monster wall of water? Is that why the early landmasses eroded away. Was it really granite that saved us, or the moon moving further away?

How salty was the water during the ice age, what will it be in the new wot age with no ice?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
One of the great voices of our time...



Maybe of "your" time. :) No, that was really great. She was one great lady and so well loved.
hmmm,I wonder how I did that ^^^, oh well...
259. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
That's unfortunate. I think the blog would be a much better place without your posts cluttering up the blog with false information.

Also, as Aussie pointed out, monomania is not allowed on the blogs, so don't be surprised if some of your posts start disappearing.


Obsession and monomania is denying that weather modification is a common goal of private industry and government, as supported by numerous financial documents of numerous power, water companies and states, numerous patent documents and military documents.
Kate Smith? Wasn't she one of Charlie's Angels? :-)
261. wxmod
Quoting indianrivguy:
Ya know, I have always wondered about the carboniferous period, when O2 was 32.5. Fire would burn in a way hard to fathom. 165% of todays level.

Nice link wx, thanks.

I wonder other stuff too... when the moon was MUCH closer, how tidal was the water. Did it follow the moon with a monster wall of water? Is that why the early landmasses eroded away. Was it really granite that saved us, or the moon moving further away?

How salty was the water during the ice age, what will it be in the new wot age with no ice?


These are very good questions. Thanks for posting them.
Forecast for Christmas Night according to the GFS. 40s for my area on the west coast of FL. Would be nice and refreshing for a change.

Quoting wxmod:


Obsession and monomania is denying that weather modification is a common goal of private industry and government, as supported by numerous financial documents of numerous power, water companies and states, numerous patent documents and military documents.


What are these so-called documents?
You never know what stuff you will learn. While looking at Hurricane Evan (Fiji Met). I noticed it will be Saturday in Samoa before it is even Friday in American Samoa. You could travel approx 50 miles from one island to the other and skip Friday entirely.

Current time in Samoa is 6:30pm Friday
Current time American Samoa is 5:30pm Thursday
265. wxmod
Quoting KoritheMan:


What are these so-called documents?


Like I said Koritheman
you don't read my links.
Here is the latest forecast from Samoa Meteorology

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER FIFTEEN (15) FOR SAMOA
ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 140400 UTC OR 6:00 P.M
FRIDAY 14TH DECEMBER 2012

.............. Hurricane warning remains in effect for Upolu……………..

.............. Hurricane watch remains in effect for Savaii……………..

……….. Flood Advisory remains in effect for low lying areas due to heavy rain ……….

Tropical Cyclone Evan was moving north-northwest at 6 mph and is located at about 12.88 south, 171.84 west or 56 miles north-northwest of Apia, 57 miles north of Faleolo or 46 miles northeast of Avao at 140100 UTC or 3:00 p.m. this afternoon. TC Evan is expected to move southwest and may relocate at about 52 miles northwest of Apia or 20 miles north-northeast of Avao at 11pm tonight.

Expected winds:

Hurricane force winds of 70-95 mph within 15 nautical miles from the centre
Storm force winds of 55-70 mph within 25 nautical miles from the centre.
Gale force winds of 35-50 mph within 40 miles from the centre

Forecast

For Upolu: Southern side: East to northeast winds of 45-55 mph with gusts at times mainly at exposed areas.
Northern side: Northeast winds of 50-70 mph with higher gusts at times mainly at exposed areas.
Poor visibility in heavy rain. Damaging storm surges of 12-16 feet and very rough seas. Periods of rain, moderate to heavy falls at some areas with thunderstorms.

For Savaii: Southern side: East to northeast winds of 45-55 mph with gusts at times mainly at exposed areas.
Northern side: North to northeast winds of 50-70 mph with higher gusts at times mainly at exposed areas. Poor visibility in heavy rain. Seas very rough with damaging storm surge of 12-16 feet. Rain heavy at times with thunderstorms.

The next Special Weather Bulletin will be issued at 9.00 p.m. today.
Quoting nymore:
You never know what stuff you will learn. While looking at Hurricane Evan (Fiji Met). I noticed it will be Saturday in Samoa before it is even Friday in American Samoa. You could travel approx 50 miles from one island to the other and skip Friday entirely.

Current time in Samoa is 6:30pm Friday
Current time American Samoa is 5:30pm Thursday

Yeah, that is correct. in 1999 people went to Samoa to be the 1st to celebrate 2000 then went to American Samoa to be the last to celebrate.
Quoting wxmod:


Like I said Koritheman
you don't read my links.


lol, I'm not on the blog all the time. I don't obsess over reading every post. Now, are you going to show them or what?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Kate Smith? Wasn't she one of Charlie's Angels? :-)
Kate Jackson, Farrah Fawcett-Majors and Jaclyn Smith...:)..was an avid watcher..
Nor,Easter....Maybe
271. wxmod
Quoting KoritheMan:


lol, I'm not on the blog all the time. I don't obsess over reading every post. Now, are you going to show them or what?


I don't obsess over the blog and haven't copied every entry. Could you please tell me which link you would like to see. There have been very many.
OR
You could do what I have suggested many times and type search terms into your search engine followed by the phrase site:gov or site:edu to keep conspiracy theory websites out of your results. Try "weather modification","precipitation enhancement", "solar radiation management", "stratospheric seeding", "geoengineering".
Quoting wxmod:


I don't obsess over the blog and haven't copied every entry. Could you please tell me which link you would like to see. There have been very many.
OR
You could do what I have suggested many times and type search terms into your search engine followed by the phrase site:gov or site:edu to keep conspiracy theory websites out of your results. Try "weather modification","precipitation enhancement", "solar radiation management", "stratospheric seeding", "geoengineering".


I personally guarantee that I will actively search out these terms.
Quoting TomTaylor:
You are to weather modification as cyclonebuster is to underwater tunnels...both of you are relentless, annoying, and insanely out of touch with reality.

While you are entitled to your beliefs, it is rude to force them upon everyone else, so please stop posting about weather modification.

I put him on ignore a long time ago. If people didn't quote him, I wouldn't know anything about him.
I highly highly doubt this would happen but...
No snow for TA :P
384hrs:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, that is correct. in 1999 people went to Samoa to be the 1st to celebrate 2000 then went to American Samoa to be the last to celebrate.


I believe that was Kiribati, Samoa did not change until 2011
Evan:

Significant shaking in Central America Pacific coast lately...I hope this is not a warning sign

Quoting wxchaser97:
I highly highly doubt this would happen but...
384hrs:
Looks like a Piccaso..
Right, I'm back. I stayed up long enough to watch some of the senior groups in the 2012 Junior Junkanoo parade on TV. [I had too much work to go out to Bay Street to watch it in person this year.] The Family Island groups seem to have come with some fine presentations this year. I gave up with one group to go... this is the 25th anniversary of the parade, and they had 25 groups all together, representing three islands and eight school districts. Fortunately for us the weather was dry, not too windy [the costumes are large, lightweight and therefore rather unwieldy in gusty conditions] yet cool enough to dance for hours....

Happy Yuletide season, all - Junior Junkanoo begins it [tonight] and ends it [with the Grand Bahama parade] here in the Bahamas... Now I'm genuinely gone to bed...
HURRICANE WARNING 030 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 14/0716 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9
SOUTH 172.1 WEST AT 140600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 12.9S 172.1W AT 140600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 2 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS
BY 150600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.3S 173.4W AT 141800 UTC
AND NEAR 13.7S 175.3W AT 150600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 029.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 14 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS INCLUDING NORTHERN LAU GROUP IN FIJI/ROTUMA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 12.9S 172.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 2 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Deep convection persistent in past 12 hours over low level circulation center. Cyclone intensifying over the last 12 hours. EVAN lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. System lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CMG surround yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.5, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.3S 173.4W - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.7S 175.3W - 110 knots (CAT 5/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.4S 179.6W - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
yikes just a little under Category 5 on the SSH scale
Good Morning folks!..cool and breezy here now...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME HAIL POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION AS TO IF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BECOME ROOTED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD RESULT MORE IN A WIND THREAT. ALSO...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT.

$$
6.1 off Southern Californian coast. Didn't feel it here in Santa Barbara, but judging by the facebook posts, many people felt it in San Diego.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE
REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE THREAT
EXISTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...STRONG
WIND...AND COASTAL FLOODING EVENT.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Significant shaking in Central America Pacific coast lately...I hope this is not a warning sign

Damn! This post was just 5 hrs before a 6.1 off southern California. I've never seen anyone call an earthquake like that before.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn! This post was just 5 hrs before a 6.1 off southern California. Couldn't have called it better.
..tom, when these events happen off shore..do you feel them on land sometimes?
Quoting LargoFl:
..tom, when these events happen off shore..do you feel them on land sometimes?
Certainly. Whether or not you feel the earthquake depends on the strength, depth and your position relative to the earthquake (and other factors), but I know plenty of people living in San Diego felt the earthquake. Others slept through it. Here in Santa Barbara I didn't feel it although I have been awake trying to study for my last final tomorrow (and by tomorrow I mean later today).
Although Florida is not usually considered to be a state subject to earthquakes, several minor shocks have occurred there. Only one of these caused damage. Additional shocks of doubtful seismic origin also are listed in earthquake documents.

A shock occurred near St. Augustine, in the northeast part of the State, in January 1879. The Nation's oldest permanent settlement, founded by Spain in 1565, reported that heavy shaking knocked plaster from walls and articles from shelves. Similar effects were noted at Daytona Beach, 50 miles south. At Tampa, the southernmost point of the felt area, the trembling was preceded by a rumbling sound at 11:30 p.m. Two shocks were reported in other areas, at 11:45 p.m. and 11:55 p.m. The tremor was felt through north and central Florida, and at Savannah, Georgia.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Certainly. Whether or not you feel the earthquake depends on the strength, depth and your position relative to the earthquake (and other factors), but I know plenty of people living in San Diego felt the earthquake. Others slept through it. Here in Santa Barbara I didn't feel it although I have been awake trying to study for my last final tomorrow.
ok thanks, we dont really get too many here , good luck on your Final...
Quoting LargoFl:
ok thanks, we dont really get too many here , good luck on your Final...
Thanks
TSUNAMI SEISMIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
239 AM PST FRI DEC 14 2012

...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT...


EVALUATION
----------
* AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED - A TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 6.4
* ORIGIN TIME 0136 AKST DEC 14 2012
0236 PST DEC 14 2012
1036 UTC DEC 14 2012
* COORDINATES 31.1 NORTH 119.6 WEST
* DEPTH 12 MILES
* LOCATION 180 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
215 MILES SW OF LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY WCATWC MESSAGE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.

* THE EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS ARE BASED ON PRELIMINARY INFORMATION.

* FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY - EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV - OR THE APPROPRIATE
REGIONAL SEISMIC NETWORK.

$$
Quoting LargoFl:
Although Florida is not usually considered to be a state subject to earthquakes, several minor shocks have occurred there. Only one of these caused damage. Additional shocks of doubtful seismic origin also are listed in earthquake documents.

A shock occurred near St. Augustine, in the northeast part of the State, in January 1879. The Nation's oldest permanent settlement, founded by Spain in 1565, reported that heavy shaking knocked plaster from walls and articles from shelves. Similar effects were noted at Daytona Beach, 50 miles south. At Tampa, the southernmost point of the felt area, the trembling was preceded by a rumbling sound at 11:30 p.m. Two shocks were reported in other areas, at 11:45 p.m. and 11:55 p.m. The tremor was felt through north and central Florida, and at Savannah, Georgia.


Dr. James Henshell; Camping and Cruising in Florida, page 41. They were camped on the St. Sebastian River on Indian River lagoon.

"A few minutes later I heard a peculiar rumbling and roaring sound proceeding from the eastward, which I at first thought to be the sea; but as it rapidly came nearer it became louder, and the ground began to tremble and roll, jarring the guns on the rack, and producing a rattling among the pans outside. The"

42 CRUISE OF THE BLUE WING.

"heavy rumbling seemed to pass right under me with an oscillating and wavy motion, and disappeared in a westerly direction. I found myself rolling out of my mossy bed, and became conscious that it was the shock of an earthquake or some internal convulsion ; and was a prolonged shock, or rather a quick succession, of two shocks, lasting nearly a minute altogether. The boys were all now wide awake and discussing the matter. Strobhar said he heard it distinctly, but he thought it was "Sen snoring."
This event occurred on the night of January 12th, at half-past eleven o'clock. I learned afterward that it was quite severe in some portions of the State. At Cape Canaveral light-house it threw oil out of the lamp on the reflectors, and shook the solid brick tower of Jupiter light from base to dome, while the keepers of both lights made the best time on record for a hundred feet downward."
It's fairly unusual (though not unheard of) that there were two large earthquakes this morning in such spatially- and temporally-close proximity to one another: a 6.4 about 163 miles SSW of Avalon, followed just 17 seconds later by a 6.1 roughly 89 miles SW of Avalon.

It remains to be seen whether there was really just a single quake that was misread as a spurious duality, but so far seismologists are leaving them both up.

The "second" quake was spurious, indeed; it was just deleted, leaving only the initial 6.4 that was 74 miles farther to the south.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
yikes just a little under Category 5 on the SSH scale




_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

Disaster declared after deadly Samoan cyclone

Video

The Samoan government has declared a state of disaster after Cyclone Evan ravaged the South Pacific nation, destroying buildings and causing flash floods.

Police in Samoa say a number of children are presumed to have drowned after being swept away in a flooded river after the cyclone hit.

Evan made landfall yesterday and caused widespread damage across the country, killing at least two people, cutting power, causing flooding and ripping trees out of the ground.

Locals say it is the worst storm to hit the region in recent years and a state of disaster has been declared.

There are now fears the storm could intensify to a category five cyclone as it tracks across the north of Tonga and then moves onto Fiji.

New Zealand's high commissioner to Samoa, Nick Hurley, says police have told him a number of children went missing near the main river in Samoa's capital Apia.

"This is the biggest one I've been through and I've been through difficult situations in the Pacific (before)," Mr Hurley told Radio New Zealand.
"The unpredictable nature of this one has made it quite different. The forecast winds did not give any indication of how strong the impact was going to be."

Many places in Samoa have only just rebuilt after being devastated by a tsunami in 2009.

"Power is off for the whole country... Tanugamanono power plant is completely destroyed and we might not have power for at least two weeks," the Disaster Management Office (DMO) said in a statement.

It said hospitals and other essential services were using standby generators, with water supplies also out and most roads cut off by fallen trees and power poles as hundreds of people languished in evacuation centres.

In travel advice, Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs said the cyclone had caused "damage to local services and infrastructure, including communications and electricity services and Faleolo International Airport".

"The Australian High Commission in Apia has closed until further notice due to storm damage," it said.

The United Nations says international aid groups are ready to help if needed, with damage from the cyclone worse than expected.

Cyclone track

Evan continues to move north west away from Apia, but its progress has slowed to just under 10 kilometres per hour.

It was around 70 kilometres off the coast and is forecast to reverse its course later this evening, although it is not known if it will again cross Samoa.

The Fiji Meteorological Service has warned the cyclone could threaten northern parts of Tonga on Saturday and reach Fiji by Sunday.

Authorities in Fiji have gone into emergency preparation as the cyclone threatens to head towards the country.

Fiji's weather bureau says the storm could eventually become a category five cyclone - packing winds at its core of 360 kilometres per hour(194kn/224mph) - and on its current path would hit both of the nation's main islands.
2012 ABC


Um.... I don't know about the winds getting that fast.

Quoting MTWX:


Not necessarily... Wind can cool the surface of the car to the point droplets can freeze... same way frost can occur even when the air temp is above 32 degrees. Guess what I'm getting at is the surface temp of the car is lower than the air temp (think opposite of fog)




Hi, long-time lurker ... first time poster.

I had just moved down from Chicago months before that Florida snow in 77. Walked outside three times around 6 AM before realizing it was actually snowing (the snow was that pathetically light and it was still dark).

It was only when I got to my car that I caught on that it was flurrying..... and it was indeed FROZEN to the windows of the car. This was mid-state, near Tampa, and IIRC, about 34 degrees.

It was at that point I thought to myself ... "WTH!?! .... we moved down here to get away from snow!" ... LOL

While I was disgusted with the whole prospect, I watched my schoolmates collectively lose their minds, (many had never seen snow) until about 11 AM, when it all had melted.
Evan is one of the worst organized Category 4's I've ever seen. I doubt it's that powerful.

306. VR46L
Morning Folks...Welcome CaptainComet

Evan quite impressive in RB

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Evan is one of the worst organized Category 4's I've ever seen. I doubt it's that powerful.



I agree. Evan looks terrible on microwave.

308. VR46L
I dont Know a category 4 around that area is a major issue .and could and probably be a very destructive landfall Cyclone when it does again
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I agree. Evan looks terrible on microwave.



you gotta remember 100 knots is category 2-3 on the SSHS and the categories are different for other RSMC.

90 knots (10min) is a category 4 there.
Quoting VR46L:
I dont Know a category 4 around that area is a major issue .and could and probably be a very destructive landfall Cyclone when it does again

Evan has already devastated Western Samoa. 2 dead. school kids missing and Evan is meant to move over Fiji very slowly which will mean more devastation.
Samoa has barely gotten back on it's feet after the quake and tsunami back in 2009 and now Evan has devastated them again. Some people just can't catch a break.
Mother Nature Is Just Getting Warmed Up: Record-Smashing Early December Assures 2012 Will Be Hottest In U.S. History



There is a 99.99999999 percent chance that 2012 will be the hottest year ever recorded in the continental 48 states, based on our analysis of 118 years of temperature records through Dec. 10, 2012.

For the first 10 days of December, new daily record high temperatures have outnumbered record lows by a ratio of 92 to 1. For the 48 contiguous states, the ratio was an incredible 132 to 1, since 3 out of the 10 low records were in Alaska and Hawaii. During the entire week of December 2-8, not a single low temperature record was tied or broken in any of the 50 states, according to NCDC reports. With 3 weeks remaining in the year, the cumulative ratio of heat records to cold records for 2012 has reached 6.0 to 1, more than double the ratio in 2011.

Credit: thinkprogress.org
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


you gotta remember 100 knots is category 2-3 on the SSHS and the categories are different for other RSMC.

90 knots (10min) is a category 4 there.


Ah. Either way, I think 100 knots may even be overdone. Evan looks more like an 80kt storm at the moment.
313. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

Evan has already devastated Western Samoa. 2 dead. school kids missing and Evan is meant to move over Fiji very slowly which will mean more devastation.
Samoa has barely gotten back on it's feet after the quake and tsunami back in 2009 and now Evan has devastated them again. Some people just can't catch a break.


Yes you are right . I think sometime people forget when they are tracking these cyclones that people are affected and there can be huge tragedy . Thats why the E-Pac are my favourites , usually beautiful storms that dont effect land
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


you gotta remember 100 knots is category 2-3 on the SSHS and the categories are different for other RSMC.

90 knots (10min) is a category 4 there.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Ah. Either way, I think 100 knots may even be overdone. Evan looks more like an 80kt storm at the moment.

What she said.
An interesting read on Samoan Cyclone History on Christopher C. Burt, Weather Historians blog.

Link
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I agree. Evan looks terrible on microwave.



Is it possible that Evan wrapped some dry air from down sloping off the Samoan Islands? They may be too small to play that effect on Evan, but judging from water vapor or any satellite presentations you can see how disorganized he is. He may not even be a hurricane at the moment.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Damn! This post was just 5 hrs before a 6.1 off southern California. I've never seen anyone call an earthquake like that before.


well, this quake is not what I meant.
Good Morning All,
Very foggy this am..
Here's a couple of webcam's from my area..
I hope it moves out soon..



319. yoboi
Quoting SteveDa1:
Mother Nature Is Just Getting Warmed Up: Record-Smashing Early December Assures 2012 Will Be Hottest In U.S. History



There is a 99.99999999 percent chance that 2012 will be the hottest year ever recorded in the continental 48 states, based on our analysis of 118 years of temperature records through Dec. 10, 2012.

For the first 10 days of December, new daily record high temperatures have outnumbered record lows by a ratio of 92 to 1. For the 48 contiguous states, the ratio was an incredible 132 to 1, since 3 out of the 10 low records were in Alaska and Hawaii. During the entire week of December 2-8, not a single low temperature record was tied or broken in any of the 50 states, according to NCDC reports. With 3 weeks remaining in the year, the cumulative ratio of heat records to cold records for 2012 has reached 6.0 to 1, more than double the ratio in 2011.

Credit: thinkprogress.org



should start to go down next yr....
Quoting SteveDa1:
Mother Nature Is Just Getting Warmed Up: Record-Smashing Early December Assures 2012 Will Be Hottest In U.S. History



There is a 99.99999999 percent chance that 2012 will be the hottest year ever recorded in the continental 48 states, based on our analysis of 118 years of temperature records through Dec. 10, 2012.

For the first 10 days of December, new daily record high temperatures have outnumbered record lows by a ratio of 92 to 1. For the 48 contiguous states, the ratio was an incredible 132 to 1, since 3 out of the 10 low records were in Alaska and Hawaii. During the entire week of December 2-8, not a single low temperature record was tied or broken in any of the 50 states, according to NCDC reports. With 3 weeks remaining in the year, the cumulative ratio of heat records to cold records for 2012 has reached 6.0 to 1, more than double the ratio in 2011.

Credit: thinkprogress.org


In other words no winter this year.....:( I don't think it is ever going to snow here in Illinois. Our December average high for the first 13 days of the month is probably around 53-54 F, compared to the climatology average of 39 F. My grass is still green and growing...
So is it Going to be Warm and Dry for Christmas for areas from Texas to Florida? 57 here this morning, we should be in upper 30s to upper 50s to near 60 for a high. 70s to near are likely here. 63 tonight for a low? Should cool to 40s for lows. Front coming thru is very weak though. Approaching 70 days since our last decent rain. Every county is under severe drought conditions and unless we get alot of rain soon Extreme drought conditions will be over most of Texas by Spring. A huge portion of the Country seems to be lacking in rain or snow outside of Florida?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
So is it Going to be Warm and Dry for Christmas for areas from Texas to Florida? 57 here this morning, we should be in upper 30s to upper 50s to near 60 for a high. 70s to near are likely here. 63 tonight for a low? Should cool to 40s for lows. Front coming thru is very weak though. Approaching 70 days since our last decent rain. Every county is under severe drought conditions and unless we get alot of rain soon Extreme drought conditions will be over most of Texas by Spring. A huge portion of the Country seems to be lacking in rain or snow outside of Florida?


Did SE Texas get any measurable precip from the moisture that moved in from Mexico the last couple of days?..
I was hoping they would as they are in moderate drought conditions as well..
Quoting ILwthrfan:


In other words no winter this year.....:( I don't think it is ever going to snow here in Illinois. Our December average high for the first 13 days of the month is probably around 53-54 F, compared to the climatology average of 39 F. My grass is still green and growing...


I expect temperatures to plummet sometime after Christmas.
324. MTWX
Quoting BahaHurican:
Some of the pics are pretty.


LOL!!
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
So is it Going to be Warm and Dry for Christmas for areas from Texas to Florida? 57 here this morning, we should be in upper 30s to upper 50s to near 60 for a high. 70s to near are likely here. 63 tonight for a low? Should cool to 40s for lows. Front coming thru is very weak though. Approaching 70 days since our last decent rain. Every county is under severe drought conditions and unless we get alot of rain soon Extreme drought conditions will be over most of Texas by Spring. A huge portion of the Country seems to be lacking in rain or snow outside of Florida?


I fear the drought of 2012 during the summer will not only come back for 2013, but be worse. We had a recent relief in the early fall, but over the last 2 months we have only seen 50% of our normal rainfall. With snow this winter looking bleak for Ohio Valley and Midwest, I'd say it won't take long for the core of the drought over the Plains to expand eastward.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I fear the drought of 2012 during the summer will not only come back for 2013, but be worse. We had a recent relief in the early fall, but over the last 2 months we have only seen 50% of our normal rainfall. With snow this winter looking bleak for Ohio Valley and Midwest, I'd say it won't take long for the core of the drought over the Plains to expand eastward.


Just remember. We still have three months to get a good snow pack.
Quoting #320


The GFS model begs to differ. :)

It shows snow behind a developing low in western Missouri strolling northeastwards across much of Illinois and Indiana as early as Monday morning.
Here is the latest on Hurricane Evan




SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER EIGHTEEN (18) FOR SAMOA
ISSUED BY SAMOA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 141200 UTC OR 2:00 A.M
SATURDAY 15TH DECEMBER 2012

.............. Storm warning is now in effect for Savaii……………..

.............. Hurricane warning is now cancelled for Savaii……………..

.............. Wind advisory is now effective for Upolu……………..

.............. Gale watch is now cancelled for Upolu……………..

……….. Flood Advisory remains in effect for low lying areas due to heavy rain ……….

Tropical Cyclone Evan was moving west northwest at 8 mph and was located at about 12.62 south, 172.77 west or 56 miles north northwest of Avao, 53 miles north north of Asau or 91 miles northwest of Apia at 141100 UTC or 1:00 a.m. this morning. TC Evan is expected to move southwest and may relocate at about 121 miles west northwest of Apia or 68 miles west-northwest of Asau at 8.00 am tomorrow.

Expected winds:

Hurricane force winds of 70-95 mph within 5 nautical miles from the centre
Storm force winds of 55-70 mph within 15 nautical miles from the centre.
Gale force winds of 35-50 mph within 25 miles from the centre

Forecast

For Upolu: Northeast winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35mph in squalls .
Poor visibility in rain. Damaging storm surges of 10-14 feet and very rough seas. Isolated showers, moderate falls possible with a few thunderstorms.

For Savaii: Southern side: East to southeast winds of 45-55 mph with gusts at times mainly at exposed areas.
Northern side: Northeast winds of 50-70 mph with higher gusts at times mainly at exposed areas. Poor visibility in heavy rain. Seas very rough with damaging storm surge of 12-16 feet. Rain heavy at times with thunderstorms.

The next Special Weather Bulletin will be issued at 6.00 a.m. today.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I fear the drought of 2012 during the summer will not only come back for 2013, but be worse. We had a recent relief in the early fall, but over the last 2 months we have only seen 50% of our normal rainfall. With snow this winter looking bleak for Ohio Valley and Midwest, I'd say it won't take long for the core of the drought over the Plains to expand eastward.
Couple years ago we had worst drought in History here with like 9 inches of rain in a 12 month period but we are currently dryer than that and the extended forecast provides little relief or hope, I am praying the forecast are wrong but I am not even getting drizzle here or trace amounts like i did 2 years ago. We are suppose to get light amounts next 2 days. When El Nino did not develop i knew we would be in bad shape. Trying to think positive but that is hard to do in a drought. The Texas farmers may be facing a complete loss of their crops if rains dont develop soon? Only parts of texas getting decent rains are extreme east and southeast Texas, rest of the state is bone dry. But I read there are several states not getting rain or snow and way too warm also. I mowed my back yard last week cause my grass is still growing which is unheard of for December, did just have my first mild freeze. There are several places that depend on Snow for their income.
330. eddye
can someone tell me wat the gfs shows for orlando for next friday and saturday does it show high in the 60 and low in the 40 i need someone 2 tell me wat it shows.
Quoting pcola57:


Did SE Texas get any measurable precip from the moisture that moved in from Mexico the last couple of days?..
I was hoping they would as they are in moderate drought conditions as well..
Not sure but that area is about the only part of Texas getting rains worth talking about, from like College Station to Houston and eastward. I am hoping the roads get wet today, will be first time in 2 months.
There are now 7 days until the 2012 winter solstice
333. yoboi
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Couple years ago we had worst drought in History here with like 9 inches of rain in a 12 month period but we are currently dryer than that and the extended forecast provides little relief or hope, I am praying the forecast are wrong but I am not even getting drizzle here or trace amounts like i did 2 years ago. We are suppose to get light amounts next 2 days. When El Nino did not develop i knew we would be in bad shape. Trying to think positive but that is hard to do in a drought. The Texas farmers may be facing a complete loss of their crops if rains dont develop soon? Only parts of texas getting decent rains are extreme east and southeast Texas, rest of the state is bone dry. But I read there are several states not getting rain or snow and way too warm also. I mowed my back yard last week cause my grass is still growing which is unheard of for December, did just have my first mild freeze. There are several places that depend on Snow for their income.




you should get rain this weekend
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting wxmod:


Still working for Heartland?

Nice slimeball personal attack. Inpugning the motives of critics raising a valid, logical counterpoint is a favored tactic of conspiracy-mongers who cannot counter the point. I am really curious why the moderators here allow such.