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Nineteen Atlantic tropical storms 3 consecutive years: a very rare event

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:13 PM GMT on November 28, 2012

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season closes this Friday with another top-five tally for named storms--nineteen. This is the third consecutive year with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic, which is a remarkable level of activity for a three-year period. The closest comparable three-year period of activity occurred during 2003 - 2004 - 2005, when each season had fifteen-plus named storms. Since 1851, only two seasons--2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (20 named storms)--have been busier than 2010, 2011, and 2012.


Figure 1. Preliminary tracks of the nineteen named storms from 2012. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

How rare are 3 consecutive top-five hurricane seasons for named storms?
It is tremendously rare to get three consecutive top-five years in a database with a 162-year record. This would occur randomly just once every 34,000 years--assuming the database were unbiased, the climate were not changing, and a multi-year climate pattern favorable for active seasons were not present. However the database IS biased, the climate IS changing, and we have been in an active hurricane period that began in 1995. So, which of these factors may be responsible for recording three consecutive years with nineteen named storms? It is well-known that prior to the arrival of geostationary satellites in December 1966 and aircraft hurricane reconnaissance in 1945 that tropical storms in the Atlantic were under-counted. Landsea et al. (2004) theorized that we missed up to six named storms per year between 1851 - 1885, and up to four between 1886 - 1910. Landsea (2007) estimated the under-count to be 3.2 named storms per year between 1900 - 1965, and 1.0 per year between 1966 - 2002. Other studies have argued for lower under-counts. So, if we assume the highest under-counts estimated by Landsea et al. (2004) and Landsea (2007), here would be the top ten busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851:

2005: 28
1887: 25
1933: 23
1995: 20
2012, 2011, 2010, 1969, 1936: 19

So, 2012, 2011, and 2010 would still rank as top-five busiest seasons since 1851, but the odds of having three consecutive seasons with nineteen named storms would drop from a 1-in-34,000 year event to "only" a 1-in-5800 year event. More recently, Landsea et al. (2010) showed that the increasing trend in North Atlantic tropical storm frequency over the past 140 years was largely due to the increasing trend in short‐lived storms (storms lasting 2 days or less, called “shorties”), after the 1940s (Figure 2, top). They did not detect a significant increasing trend in medium‐ to long‐lived storms lasting more than 2 days. They wrote that “while it is possible that the recorded increase in short‐duration TCs [tropical cyclones] represents a real climate signal, we consider it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of the observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.” Villarini et al. (2011), in a paper titled, "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", agreed. They attempted to correlate increases in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in recent decades to the increase in short-lived Atlantic tropical storms, and were unable to do so. They wrote: using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. So, let's do that. If we look during the past three hurricane seasons at how many "shorties" were observed, we see that a large number that stayed at tropical storm strength for two days or less: six storms in 2010, six in 2011, and seven in 2012. This leaves the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 with twelve to thirteen tropical storms that lasted more than two days. This doesn't stand out that much when looking at trends since 1878 (Figure 2, bottom); there are now 25 years in the 135-year record with twelve or more long-lived tropical cyclones. However, there are no previous occurrences of three consecutive years with at least twelve long-lived tropical storms, so 2010, 2011, and 2012 still represent an unprecedented level of tropical storm activity in the historical record, and we would expect such an event to occur randomly about once every 157 years. That's a pretty rare event, and it is possible that climate change, combined with the fact we are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, contributed to this rare event.


Figure 2. Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1878 - 2012 that spent two days or less at tropical storm strength (top) and more than two days at tropical storm strength or hurricane strength (bottom.) Figure updated from Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493.

References
Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez‐Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer (2004), "The Atlantic hurricane database re‐analysis project: Documentation for 1851–1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database," in Hurricanes and Typhoons ‐ Past, Present, and Future, edited by R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, pp. 178–221, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.

Landsea, C. W., (2007), "Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900," Eos, 88(18), 197-202.

Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting nymore:
The no increase in droughts seems to be right the study in the journal Nature indicates there has been little change in drought in the last 60 years. The study was published Nov. 14
Quoting nymore:
Neo you may want to change your post number 444. It seems that hack writer for a hack fish wrap got his info from Nature. According to the study new measurements show very little change in droughts. So either you are wrong in the info you posted or Nature is.

Hmmmmmmm I wonder who is wrong?


Maybe not...
(And for the record, it is not exactly "new measurements" as it is incorporating different measurements into a different drought index)

Climate Change Is Already Worsening Droughts In Many Ways: Nature Gets It Wrong%u2013And Right
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/11/20/11942 01/climate-change-droughts-nature/

Dr. Kevin Trenberth:

The conclusions of the paper are likely wrong. The paper re-examines the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in different formulations and how it changes over time. However, this has been done before in references embedded in the paper...

...Another key point is that while our previous results with PDSI have been compared with other related but independent records, such as soil moisture, streamflow, and GRACE satellite data, Sheffield et al. made only a detailed comparison of various forcing data for the PDSI calculations.


In summary, numerous papers exist already that have both showed possible increases in drought through drought indeces as well as increases in drought according to streamflow, precipitation, and soil moisture. Typically when new research is published that counters other established science, there is a discussion on discrepencies. The new Natural paper did not address why it was different.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER ALERT
_______________________

Major California storm.... a 964 mb in the Gulf of Alaska

click image for bigger view...many changes done



Thanks for this. I linked it on a Facebook page for my California friends.
Good afternoon. Looks like Bopha is trying to organize, but it's having a tough time:



Quoting TomballTXPride:


Ahhh. So are you saying anyone that isn't a climatologist has no merit when weighing in on climate science? Hope Jeff Master's isn't reading the comments right now....
Im a physician. Non physicians try to tell me my job all the time.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER ALERT
_______________________

Major California storm.... a 964 mb in the Gulf of Alaska

click image for bigger view...many changes done

IS this for real here? Locally 15" of rain?....... 3-5' of snow? OK, I am buying the furniture that I don't have to pay for till 2014. Want another woodstove too! The apocolyspe, I'll be sitting pretty, forget the huge flatscreen tv... won't work! Love you!
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Maybe not...

Climate Change Is Already Worsening Droughts In Many Ways: Nature Gets It Wrong–And Right
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/11/20/11942 01/climate-change-droughts-nature/

Dr. Kevin Trenberth:

The conclusions of the paper are likely wrong. The paper re-examines the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in different formulations and how it changes over time. However, this has been done before in references embedded in the paper...

...Another key point is that while our previous results with PDSI have been compared with other related but independent records, such as soil moisture, streamflow, and GRACE satellite data, Sheffield et al. made only a detailed comparison of various forcing data for the PDSI calculations.
Trenberth should put together his own research and submit it for review.

Instead of spewing out stuff on a wacko website.
About the storm
____________________

A huge 964 mb low




click pic for bigger size
Quoting JustPlantIt:
Off the subject... BUT your government was 'supposed' to inspect pharmacies! Guess what, NOT! Do you really think that they care about people? i really doubt that they inspect landfills too!!!!!!!!!!! 


Prolly before your time, but Grother, that Caicos Pirate guy, and I remember this stuff live..

can't seem to get this to post up to play here, so I had to link it DDT is Harmless

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nP3ZLNSJu5g&featur e=colike


493. JustPlantIt

It is all about 'clean' water.




"I" am all about clean water. :)

Indian Riverkeeper



DEMAND CLEAN WATER




Quoting JustPlantIt:

IS this for real here? Locally 15" of rain?....... 3-5' of snow? OK, I am buying the furniture that I don't have to pay for till 2014. Want another woodstove too! The apocolyspe, I'll be sitting pretty, forget the huge flatscreen tv... won't work! Love you!


yes... and i might have been a little conservative.. The 5' go for Idaho mostly...look for 3-4' in the Sierra Nevada
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. Looks like Bopha is trying to organize, but it's having a tough time:





It has to climb in latitude to get away from the equator and have a better enviroment to intensify.
Quoting nymore:
Trenberth should put together his own research and submit it for review.

Instead of spewing out stuff on a wacko website.

He does. He is well-regarded in climate science.
Quoting Xandra:

From Met Office News Blog:

Responding to more ‘winter weather’ headlines

We wrote only last week that it seems that it is the time of year again for colourful headlines about an impending big freeze.


here's that irish postman weather guy calling for heavy snows before xmas.
Quoting nymore:
Trenberth should put together his own research and submit it for review.

Instead of spewing out stuff on a wacko website.
"Wacko" website? You mean that one run by Dr. Joe Romm, who holds a Ph.D. in Physics from MIT? Who taught at Columbia University? Who held various Secretary-level positions at the U.S. Department of Energy? Who is widely regarded as an expert on climate change and energy efficiency? Who's authored several highly-regarded books on climate? Who's been brought before Congress numerous times to tesify as an expert witness? That "wacko" website?

Nah, to me a "wacko" website would be one run by a non-degreed guy whose singular meteorological cred was "earned" working as a weather reader for a medium-market broadcast station, yet who nonetheless fancies himself some sort of expert on climate science despite being debunked and discredit by virtually every credible scientist alive. Now that's a "wacko" website...
Quoting ScottLincoln:

He does. He is well-regarded in climate science.
I'm talking about the study he claims is wrong, which was peer reviewed.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. Looks like Bopha is trying to organize, but it's having a tough time:




I don't understand why it's taking so long to intensify, to be honest. It is in a low wind shear environment with an abundance of upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence and dry air isn't being sucked into the circulation according to the precipitable water loops.
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Wacko" website? You mean that one run by Dr. Joe Romm, who holds a Ph.D. in Physics from MIT? Who taught at Columbia University? Who held various Secretary-level positions at the U.S. Department of Energy? Who is widely regarded as an expert on climate change and energy efficiency? Who's authored several highly-regarded books on climate? Who's been brought before Congress numerous times to tesify as an expert witness? That "wacko" website?

Nah, to me a "wacko" website would be one run by a non-degreed guy whose singular meteorological cred was "earned" working as a weather reader for a medium-market broadcast station, yet who nonetheless fancies himself some sort of expert on climate science despite being debunked and discredit by virtually every credible scientist alive. Now that's a "wacko" website...
Well since I don't use any bias websites for info because of the spin they put on it. Your point is moot sir.

BTW being smart doesn't mean your not a wacko
Example Ted Kasinsky
Well, I am going to make the great intellectual leap that I have someone's ignore list. This amuses much more than it should :)
This discussion by JTWC cover all the bases about intensity and future track of Bopha.

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
REGENERATION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 291548Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY THE 291741Z AMSU PASS AND 291800Z RJTD CENTER FIX
LOCATION, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM RJTD
AND PGTW/KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
OUTFLOW IS BECOMING LESS ROBUST DESPITE A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD. THE
SYSTEM IS ABOUT 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS, WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS A VERY FAVORABLE 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. IT
SEEMS THAT THE LOW LATITUDE OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING ITS POTENTIAL
CORIOLIS MAGNITUDE AND THEREFORE LIMITING ANY POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE
BETA PROPAGATION. IN ADDITION TO THESE LIMITING FACTORS SOME SORT OF
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE OVER OR NEAR THE LLCC
WHICH MAY BE HINDERING THE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, POSSIBLE DIVERGENCE
FROM THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MAY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGE
CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AS
CURRENTLY SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY
BEGINS TO GAIN LATITUDE, CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS BASICALLY SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN GROUPINGS WITH THE WBAR,
NOGAPS, AND GFDN DEPICTING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE JGSM,
ECMWF, AND GFS INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE OFFICIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE LATER NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTION BASED ON
PREVIOUS MODEL PERFORMANCE AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE STR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK
FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR BROUGHT ON BY A
DEEP, YET BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA. LIGHT VWS, INCREASED OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SST WILL ALLOW TS
26W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING WITH A FORECAST PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. AFTER THIS TIME ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING
TREND AND THEREFORE IS REFLECTED IN THE TAU 120 FORECAST INTENSITY
OF 100 KNOTS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE DEGRADES TO LOW DURING THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEPTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND ORIENTATION OF THE STR AT THIS TIME. MODEL
SPREAD IS APPROXIMATELY 400NM AT TAU 120 WITH GFDN REMAINING THE
FASTER TRACKER LOCATED OVER THE SULU SEA WHERE THE SLOWER EGRR
TRACKER RESIDES OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.//
NNNN
Quoting nymore:
Well since I don't use any bias websites for info because of the spin they put on it. Your point is moot sir.

BTW being smart doesn't mean your not a wacko
Example Ted Kasinsky
Then perhaps you'll care to share with us how you define the word "wacko", and why you used it to disparage Climate Progress?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't understand why it's taking so long to intensify, to be honest. It is in a low wind shear environment with an abundance of upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence and dry air isn't being sucked into the circulation according to the precipitable water loops.

It kind of looks like it's trying to wrap itself up right now:



With those favorable conditions you mentioned and a forming eyewall evident on microwave I wouldn't rule out RI at some point in the next 24-48 hours. The only limiting factor might be its low latitude.
521. yoboi
Roy W. Spencer received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He has provided congressional testimony several times on the subject of global warming.

Dr. Spencer’s research has been entirely supported by U.S. government agencies: NASA, NOAA, and DOE. He has never been asked by any oil company to perform any kind of service. Not even Exxon-Mobil.

Shrinking polar ice caused one-fifth of sea level rise

Comprehensive analysis quantifies ice sheet loss in Greenland and Antarctica
 
By Erin Wayman
Web edition: November 29, 2012


Greenland and Antarctica lost 4,260 billion metric tons of ice through melting and calving icebergs, a new study finds.


Scientists now have one polar ice study to rule them all. An international team of researchers has compiled 20 years of data from 10 satellite missions to create the most comprehensive assessment to date of Greenland’s and Antarctica’s shrinking ice sheets.

And the verdict: Between 1992 and 2011, the Greenland ice sheet lost 2,940 billion metric tons of ice while the Antarctic ice sheet shed 1,320 billion metric tons. All that water raised the sea level by an average of 11.1 millimeters, accounting for one-fifth of sea level rise over that period, the team reports in the Nov. 30 Science.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Then perhaps you'll care to share with us how you define the word "wacko", and why you used it to disparage Climate Progress?
You mean the guy who blames every bad weather event on CC, when he has no actual proof to back it up. WACKO

FWIW the other side has plenty of WACKO sites too
Quoting nymore:
Well since I don't use any bias websites for info because of the spin they put on it. Your point is moot sir.

BTW being smart doesn't mean your not a wacko
Example Ted Kasinsky


The point isn't moot, it's quite clear. You are consciously ignoring the obvious difference. Some people are credible, others are not. Some others fall in the gray middle. The situation Nea is discribing is not an example of the gray middle.

One more time. Dr. Joe Romm is an established scientist who has been active in climate science for a number of years. Dr. Romm, as a scientist, was skeptical of a new paper saying droughts were not changing when so many other papers had said the opposite. Being a skeptic by nature, scientist Dr. Joe Romm asked other respected scientists who have researched - and published papers regarding - changes to the hydrologic cycle due to climate change. The other experts indicated that there were issues with the new paper that needed to be addressed, and these issues may directly impact the results.

The PDSI is just one index, one of several. As we know from other aspects of science, there can be numerous different indeces to represent the same thing (for example CAPE, LI, TotalTotals) but they may not always agree closely. Some are better than others in different situations. If new science paper wants to indicate that all other science papers on drought are wrong because of his one paper of model results using one index, then said scientist would be wise to discuss the discrepencies and resolve why his answer does not jive with the existing answer.

Welcome to science.
It has been a month since Sandy hit....

No doubt about its retirement
Quoting nymore:
Trenberth should put together his own research and submit it for review.

Instead of spewing out stuff on a wacko website.


How much do you guys think I should charge for my google searches?

FYI, Trenberth has published NUMEROUS peer-reviewed papers (<-click the linky for the proof at Google Scholar).

He very well may be working on a paper to discuss this drought issue right now.
Quoting goosegirl1:
Well, I am going to make the great intellectual leap that I have someone's ignore list. This amuses much more than it should :)


It is possible, though, obviously, you are not on mine. You might be caught up in one of the filters if some people are not using "show all". What do you think is not being seen? All my numbers from 501 are on screen; there are no gaps.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes... and i might have been a little conservative.. The 5' go for Idaho mostly...look for 3-4' in the Sierra Nevada
Anywhere that I can get earthquake info other than USGS? Posted this earlier today. To ME... these earthquakes seem to have the same latitude? Maybe just a simple me.. but would like to get more info. Think you would know about this.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


The point isn't moot, it's quite clear. You are consciously ignoring the obvious difference. Some people are credible, others are not. Some others fall in the gray middle. The situation Nea is discribing is not an example of the gray middle.

One more time. Dr. Joe Romm is an established scientist who has been active in climate science for a number of years. Dr. Romm, as a scientist, was skeptical of a new paper saying droughts were not changing when so many other papers had said the opposite. Being a skeptic by nature, scientist Dr. Joe Romm asked other respected scientists who have researched - and published - and changes to the hydrologic cycle due to climate change. The other experts indicated that there were issues with the new paper that needed to be addressed, and these issues may directly impact the results.

The PDSI is just one index, one of several. As we know from other aspects of science, there can be numerous different indeces to represent the same thing (for example CAPE, LI, TotalTotals) but they may not always show the same thing. Some are better than others in different situations. If new science paper wants to indicate that all other science papers on drought are wrong because of his one paper of model results using one index, then said scientist would be wise to discuss the discrepencies and resolve why his answer does not jive with the existing answer.

Welcome to science.


Quoting MrMixon:


How much do you guys think I should charge for my google searches?

FYI, Trenberth has published NUMEROUS peer-reviewed papers (<-click the linky for the proof at Google Scholar).

He very well may be working on a paper to discuss this drought issue right now.


He very well being doing such, but until his paper has been reviewed and published I have to accept the one that is peer reviewed.

Don't get mad at me for posting an Article in the journal Nature.
Quoting etxwx:


Because some of us don't have much bandwidth or speed on our internet. Seriously...I'm like tin can and string here... barely above dial up. Plus it's annoying to have to pause it again when you refresh the page. And we old folks get all crotchety about this new fangled stuff... :-p
Sorry about this. It should work now that if you hit pause, after you reload it will remain paused.
Quoting nymore:




He very well being doing such, but until his paper has been reviewed a published I have to accept the one that is peer reviewed.

Don't get mad at me for posting an Article in the journal Nature.


...according to that standard, you would also have to accept the numerous other ones that indicate that droughts are increasing. "Numerous" outweights "one."

This isn't just about posting an article from Nature, clearly.


WHOA

WHOA

WHAT IS THIS
Quoting ScottLincoln:


...according to that standard, you would also have to accept the numerous other ones that indicate that droughts are increasing. "Numerous" outweights "one."

This isn't just about posting an article from Nature, clearly.
Is that how science works by popular vote. HUH
Quoting VaStormGuy:


WHOA

WHOA

WHAT IS THIS


See #531.
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Anywhere that I can get earthquake info other than USGS? Posted this earlier today. To ME... these earthquakes seem to have the same latitude? Maybe just a simple me.. but would like to get more info. Think you would know about this.


why you you want another one...USGS is the best page I know...
try WCATWC
Quoting WunderYakuza:
Sorry about this. It should work now that if you hit pause, after you reload it will remain paused.


Thanks, WonderYakuza. That was speedy and helpful (being another 'old fart' with little bandwidth).
Quoting Bielle:


I was referring to what TomballTXPride said. Who, or what, is Cat5?


Just more names he liked to call me. And it's been a few separate occasions now. Just like I've been called JFV and clamshell by him. He even called GeorgiaStormz that one time. I know what JFV is...a distruptive person who posts here on and off. the others I don't know.

Nonetheless, just more insults. That's the game he plays. Fine. I've been hit before. Not gonna retaliate. Just gonna take it with stride and realize that one that has to resort to name calling usually get too emotional and can't argue like adults, and instead like more like children. My 6 and 3 year old girls call each other names. I guess that about says it all....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't understand why it's taking so long to intensify, to be honest. It is in a low wind shear environment with an abundance of upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence and dry air isn't being sucked into the circulation according to the precipitable water loops.


Current latitude has it pegged at an insane 3.6N. It's not getting any of the Coriolis effect for organization needed.
540. VR46L
Quoting plutorising:


here's that irish postman weather guy calling for heavy snows before xmas.


I will be able to let you know if he is right lol ...mind ya its been a very cold year for us
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't understand why it's taking so long to intensify, to be honest. It is in a low wind shear environment with an abundance of upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence and dry air isn't being sucked into the circulation according to the precipitable water loops.

Not much coriolis down at 4 N.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Current latitude has it pegged at an insane 3.6N. It's not getting any of the Coriolis effect for organization needed.

Yep. That is insane.
Quoting JustPlantIt:
??? Other than USGS, any other source for earthquake info? It would seem that these past couple of weeks that the majority of quakes are about the same latitude. Also wonder if anyone else has noticed this?


I use RSOE EDIS..
It has a Google like format..
Hope that helps.. :)
...just in case those who talk about Antartic ice "increases" didn't notice

The new study referenced in #522 notes:

Between 1992 and 2011, ...
the Antarctic ice sheet shed 1,320 billion metric tons.
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Wacko" website? You mean that one run by Dr. Joe Romm, who holds a Ph.D. in Physics from MIT? Who taught at Columbia University? Who held various Secretary-level positions at the U.S. Department of Energy? Who is widely regarded as an expert on climate change and energy efficiency? Who's authored several highly-regarded books on climate? Who's been brought before Congress numerous times to tesify as an expert witness? That "wacko" website?

Nah, to me a "wacko" website would be one run by a non-degreed guy whose singular meteorological cred was "earned" working as a weather reader for a medium-market broadcast station, yet who nonetheless fancies himself some sort of expert on climate science despite being debunked and discredit by virtually every credible scientist alive. Now that's a "wacko" website...


Handing out spankings today Nea?? LOL.. :)
I see your point in the post however..
A simple black and white comparison..well put..
Quoting WunderYakuza:
Sorry about this. It should work now that if you hit pause, after you reload it will remain paused.


Thanks for the fix..
Kinda like the idea behind it..
I sometimes have multiple windows open and this is one way to keep up with the blog..
We shall see.. :)
The closet to the equator any cyclone has ever gotten was Tropical Storm Vamei which formed at 1.4N.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The closet to the equator any cyclone has ever gotten was Tropical Storm Vamei which formed at 1.4N.


Which basin and year was that Cybr?
12,26,2001..South China Sea..I found it
Thanks anyway..
Quoting nymore:




He very well being doing such, but until his paper has been reviewed and published I have to accept the one that is peer reviewed.

Don't get mad at me for posting an Article in the journal Nature.


Of course, you can accept or reject whatever you want. I just thought it was worth pointing out to the other readers of the blog that Kevin Trenberth is a well-published scientist and not just some "wacko" as you had called him.

PS - your comment about us being "mad" is probably the reason why Nea is always using those smiley faces. I can only speak for myself, but I wasn't mad. As I said earlier, tone of voice is completely lost in typed text and unfortunately it leads to a lot of misunderstandings. Peace.
Quoting nymore:
I never called Trenberth a wacko, I called Joe Romm one.

Neo does the smiley face to be an arrogant _______
;-)
This, guys, is a true superstorm.

I'd hate to be on Saturn.

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 12z shows minimum pressure of 945 mb for Labrador Sea extratropical bomb at 12z Friday. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/274251617145061 376/photo/1
ABC7 News‏@abc7newsBayArea

National Weather Service says a flash flood watch will be in effect from 7pm PST through Friday afternoon. http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/severeweather?pt=detail &&zone=CA124CD0C20B08.FlashFloodWatch.124CD0D1E0F0 CA.MTRFFAMTR.a7702fd9376aaebbe25c252ef1e418b3 #BayAreaRain
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 30 Nov 2012 06:00 to Sat 01 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 29 Nov 2012 20:27
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for the Aegean Sea and SE Greece mainly for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, heavy rain and an isolated tornado event.

Level 1 areas were issued for parts of the E-Adriatic Sea (heavy rain) and NE Tyrrhenian Sea (heavy rain and an isolated waterspout risk).

SYNOPSIS

A broad branch of the polar vortex covers most of Europe with cold air advecting far south. Disturbances along its fringes mark the foci for thunderstorm development. Isolated lightning activity is forecast over the North Sea beneath very cold mid-levels.

DISCUSSION

... Aegean Sea and adjacent areas ...

Brisk SW-erly flow affects the area of interest with DLS in excess of 20 m/s and enhanced LL shear mainly along the coasts. GFS evolves a weak wave/low south of Greece during the night, which moves to the northeast and results in enhanced backing of the LL wind field (increasing directional shear). Rich BL moisture and drier / cooler air atop assist in 500-1000, locally up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and therefore long-lived and deep convection is likely.
Well organized multicells race from SW to NE and produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and heavy rain. Given improving LL shear, an isolated tornado event is possible, too. Isolated excessive rainfall amounts can't be ruled out mainly along the coasts of the NE/E Aegean Sea with repeatedly onshore moving showers and thunderstorms.

... C-Mediterranean ...

Placed beneath cold mid-levels, isolated to scattered CI is forecast. The main activity is sub-severe, however, a few level 1 areas were issued to cover a heavy rainfall risk along the coasts and a waterspout risk north of the Tyrrhenian Sea.

Scattered thunderstorm development also occurs west of the Iberian Peninsula, but despite isolated marginal hail, nothing severe is expected.

http://www.estofex.org/
I keep getting confused about who is a wacko and who is mad...

I'll have to read back over the comments to see if I can figure it out.

On to the weather - I will be shocked if we don't see at least one good landslide from this:

Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS 12z shows minimum pressure of 945 mb for Labrador Sea extratropical bomb at 12z Friday. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/274251617145061 376/photo/1
Can anyone comment this?

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

4 NE Mount Rose SKI ARE, NV b-- mesonet reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M80.00 MPH -- at the base of the Mount Rose highway near Galena. #NVwx

2 minJim Cantore‏@JimCantore

5 SE Reno [Washoe Co, NV] asos reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M59.00 MPH at 10:55 AM PST -- measured at the Reno-tahoe international airport
From Media Matters for America:

Meet The Climate Denial Machine

Despite the overwhelming consensus among climate experts that human activity is contributing to rising global temperatures, 66 percent of Americans incorrectly believe there is "a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening." The conservative media has fueled this confusion by distorting scientific research, hyping faux-scandals, and giving voice to groups funded by industries that have a financial interest in blocking action on climate change. Meanwhile, mainstream media outlets have shied away from the "controversy" over climate change and have failed to press U.S. policymakers on how they will address this global threat. When climate change is discussed, mainstream outlets sometimes strive for a false balance that elevates marginal voices and enables them to sow doubt about the science even in the face of mounting evidence.

Here, Media Matters looks at how conservative media outlets give industry-funded "experts" a platform, creating a polarized misunderstanding of climate science.
See here the 2012 Atlantic season in 4.5 minutes.

Link
[b]Event: Flash Flood Watch

Flash Flood Watch issued November 29 at 11:22AM PST until November 30 at 3:00PM PST by NWS Monterey


DEFAULT OVERVIEW SECTION ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE...NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS...NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY...SAN FRANCISCO...SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.

* FROM 7 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* RAIN IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. COPIOUS AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...UP TO SEVERAL INCHES. GIVEN THAT WATERSHEDS ARE SATURATED FROM THE PRIOR STORM ON TUESDAY...SOME SMALLER CREEKS MAY APPROACH OR OVERTOP BANKS. VALLEY BOTTOM CREEKS IN THE NORTH BAY...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN NAPA AND PETALUMA NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

* STORM DRAINS MAY BE OVERWHELMED AND CULVERTS MAY BECOME BLOCKED BY DEBRIS...URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY. AT TIMES...RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED GUIDANCE THRESHOLDS FOR PRODUCING DEBRIS FLOWS AND SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.


Target Area: Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore; North Bay Interior Valleys; North Bay Mountains; Northern Monterey Bay; San Francisco; San Fransisco Peninsula Coast; Santa Cruz Mountains[/b]
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This, guys, is a true superstorm.

I'd hate to be on Saturn.



Here is another view of the semi-permanent superstorm that rocks the north pole of Saturn:



And there is a similar storm on Saturn's south pole:



Just imagine trying to hang onto your umbrella there.... wind speeds on Saturn can reach 1,100 mph!!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
These Rainbow colored lasers are for the one month anniversary of Hurricane Sandy and shine towards some of the hardest hit areas:







Amazing and I glad you clarified the why. I was assuming it was a GLBT thing...
Live Doppler 7 HD http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/livenow?id=6664986
Quoting MrMixon:


Here is another view of the semi-permanent superstorm that rocks the north pole of Saturn:



And there is a similar storm on Saturn's south pole:



Just imagine trying to hang onto your umbrella there.... wind speeds on Saturn can reach 1,100 mph!!

955 knot (1100 mph) winds would probably do some damage here on Earth.
568. VR46L
Quoting Luisport:
Can anyone comment this?




Its a deep Extrop storm it happens frequentely in the North Atlantic its not as Crazy a mb as you think @ 945 mb ...
569. etxwx
Quoting WunderYakuza:
Sorry about this. It should work now that if you hit pause, after you reload it will remain paused.


Thank you WunderYakuza...yes, it does stayed paused now. The tin can, the string, and I appreciate the fix. :-)
"mainstream outlets sometimes strive for a false balance that elevates marginal voices and enables them to sow doubt about the science even in the face of mounting evidence."

from what Xandra quoted in 561
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

955 knot (1100 mph) winds would probably do some damage here on Earth.
That would put your eye out kid
Quoting Bielle:


It is possible, though, obviously, you are not on mine. You might be caught up in one of the filters if some people are not using "show all". What do you think is not being seen? All my numbers from 501 are on screen; there are no gaps.


I keep asking serious questions to someone that get met by silence. I am not being disrespectful, I don't recall any name-calling, and I am unsure why this is... but it is. It amuses me because I am such a peaceful kind of person and don't try to offend anyone, so I am not used to stoney silence and it seems funny somehow.
Quoting goosegirl1:


I keep asking serious questions to someone that get met by silence. I am not being disrespectful, I don't recall any name-calling, and I am unsure why this is... but it is. It amuses me because I am such a peaceful kind of person and don't try to offend anyone, so I am not used to stoney silence and it seems funny somehow.


Can you give us the numbers where your questions appear? Perhaps they just weren't seen. I have missed questions to me that were "hidden" in a group I didn't check between visits.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
That would put your eye out kid

It is funny that I'm watching that movie right now on DVD.
Ice Sheet Loss at Both Poles Increasing, Major Study Finds

WASHINGTON -- An international team of experts supported by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) has combined data from multiple satellites and aircraft to produce the most comprehensive and accurate assessment to date of ice sheet losses in Greenland and Antarctica and their contributions to sea level rise.

In a landmark study published Thursday in the journal Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories report the combined rate of melting for the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica has increased during the last 20 years. Together, these ice sheets are losing more than three times as much ice each year (equivalent to sea level rise of 0.04 inches or 0.95 millimeters) as they were in the 1990s (equivalent to 0.01 inches or 0.27 millimeters). About two-thirds of the loss is coming from Greenland, with the rest from Antarctica.

The new estimates, which are more than twice as accurate because of the inclusion of more satellite data, confirm both Antarctica and Greenland are losing ice. Combined, melting of these ice sheets contributed 0.44 inches (11.1 millimeters) to global sea levels since 1992. This accounts for one-fifth of all sea level rise over the 20-year survey period. The remainder is caused by the thermal expansion of the warming ocean, melting of mountain glaciers and small Arctic ice caps, and groundwater mining.

Link to full article


(View through the alignment scope of the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL))
When the weather is bad at your house...

...it's always worse somewhere else.


Quoting Bielle:


Can you give us the numbers where your questions appear? Perhaps they just weren't seen. I have missed questions to me that were "hidden" in a group I didn't check between visits.


All the way back to 371, and a day or two ago that I didn't look up.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When the weather is bad at your house...

...it's always worse somewhere else.



With wind gusts of major hurricane strength and 176-218 inches of snow, that's pretty sucky. What city/area is that?
Quoting wxchaser97:

With wind gusts of major hurricane strength and 176-218 inches of snow, that's pretty sucky. What city/area is that?

Mt. Shasta, California.
Quoting goosegirl1:


All the way back to 371, and a day or two ago that I didn't look up.

He has demonstrated that he is not here to educate. I would not bother asking him questions.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When the weather is bad at your house...

...it's always worse somewhere else.



Looks like all systems go on ski season out there.
Quoting goosegirl1:


All the way back to 371, and a day or two ago that I didn't look up.


Ah yes. Well, given the question and the persona being questioned, it might be wiser to assume that it is the question that is being ignored and not you, the questioner.

It is also possible it just wasn't seen.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Mt. Shasta, California.

Thanks. I would take that over the super storm on Saturn, but that's just me.
Angela Fritz is was on The Weather Channel.
Quoting goosegirl1:


All the way back to 371, and a day or two ago that I didn't look up.


Hey goosegirl1,
If most of your questions are Climate related,like mine are alot of times,I go to the tab at the top of this page where it says "Climate" and the drop down selection I choose is usually "Feeling Skeptical" because it takes each topic one by one and then I,(being pretty hard-headed and all) can understand it..
Takes time really..for me it did anyway..
I hope this helps some with your questions and sorry I hadn't responded to you before now.. :)
I got frustrated at first but that went away..Hang in there.. :)
PS..Kick around on those other tab topics too.. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Mt. Shasta, California.
Positive aspect. There is a ski resort in the town of Mt. Shasta. Looked yesterday (edit: maybe it was two days ago) and they had rain forecast. Wonder if that's for the town itself or up on the mountain - Mt Shasta?
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Positive aspect. There is a ski resort in the town of Mt. Shasta. Looked yesterday (edit: maybe it was two days ago) and they had rain forecast. Wonder if that's for the town itself or up on the mountain - Mt Shasta?

It is for the mountain itself, and the town is getting several inches of rain.
Quoting pcola57:


Hey goosegirl1,
If most of your questions are Climate related,like mine are alot of times,I go to the tab at the top of this page where it says "Climate" and the drop down selection I choose is usually "Feeling Skeptical" because it takes each topic one by one and then I,(being pretty hard-headed and all) can understand it..
Takes time really..for me it did anyway..
I hope this helps some with your questions and sorry I hadn't responded to you before now.. :)
I got frustrated at first but that went away..Hang in there.. :)


I'd never even noticed that feature. Thanks for pointing it out.
Quoting Bielle:


I'd never even noticed that feature. Thanks for pointing it out.


Cool huh?
WU keeps getting better over the years..(I was Lurker for many years but finally took the leap in 2009.big $10 bucks..woohoo)
Shoulda seen it in 2000..Shoulda seen my computer in 2000..My hair and glasses too..LOL..
And yes Pottery I had hair..still have some LOL..
590. yoboi
Quoting goosegirl1:


I keep asking serious questions to someone that get met by silence. I am not being disrespectful, I don't recall any name-calling, and I am unsure why this is... but it is. It amuses me because I am such a peaceful kind of person and don't try to offend anyone, so I am not used to stoney silence and it seems funny somehow.



????
Quoting pcola57:


Hey goosegirl1,
If most of your questions are Climate related,like mine are alot of times,I go to the tab at the top of this page where it says "Climate" and the drop down selection I choose is usually "Feeling Skeptical" because it takes each topic one by one and then I,(being pretty hard-headed and all) can understand it..
Takes time really..for me it did anyway..
I hope this helps some with your questions and sorry I hadn't responded to you before now.. :)
I got frustrated at first but that went away..Hang in there.. :)
PS..Kick around on those other tab topics too.. :)



I had not noticed that feature, cool. But (not to be a bone head) the questions mentioned were not directed towards you. I was trying to get someone else to give us some data and links supporting their viewpoint instead of clever come-backs. Alas, this was not to be.
Quoting MrMixon:


Here is another view of the semi-permanent superstorm that rocks the north pole of Saturn:



And there is a similar storm on Saturn's south pole:



Just imagine trying to hang onto your umbrella there.... wind speeds on Saturn can reach 1,100 mph!!



1100 mph would shred all human structures including sky scrapers like a lawn mower cutting grass!

I can't even imagine...
Quoting pcola57:


Cool huh?
WU keeps getting better over the years..(I was Lurker for many years but finally took the leap in 2009.big $10 bucks..woohoo)
Shoulda seen it in 2000..Shoulda seen my computer in 2000..My hair and glasses too..LOL..


In 2000 . . . That's not far enough back for me to remember.
Quoting MrMixon:
Ice Sheet Loss at Both Poles Increasing, Major Study Finds

WASHINGTON -- An international team of experts supported by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) has combined data from multiple satellites and aircraft to produce the most comprehensive and accurate assessment to date of ice sheet losses in Greenland and Antarctica and their contributions to sea level rise.

In a landmark study published Thursday in the journal Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories report the combined rate of melting for the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica has increased during the last 20 years. Together, these ice sheets are losing more than three times as much ice each year (equivalent to sea level rise of 0.04 inches or 0.95 millimeters) as they were in the 1990s (equivalent to 0.01 inches or 0.27 millimeters). About two-thirds of the loss is coming from Greenland, with the rest from Antarctica.

The new estimates, which are more than twice as accurate because of the inclusion of more satellite data, confirm both Antarctica and Greenland are losing ice. Combined, melting of these ice sheets contributed 0.44 inches (11.1 millimeters) to global sea levels since 1992. This accounts for one-fifth of all sea level rise over the 20-year survey period. The remainder is caused by the thermal expansion of the warming ocean, melting of mountain glaciers and small Arctic ice caps, and groundwater mining.

Link to full article


(View through the alignment scope of the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL))



Antarctica now too? Oh goodie goodie, just what we wanted to hear...
Quoting bappit:

He has demonstrated that he is not here to educate. I would not bother asking him questions.



True, it was wasted effort. And I really was curious, too :)
re: a question asked earlier.

Quoting Bielle:


I was referring to what TomballTXPride said. Who, or what, is Cat5?
Cat5hurricane is a handle permabanned from wu that has returned time and again under different handles and got banned again and again.
597. yoboi
Quoting Xandra:
From Media Matters for America:

Meet The Climate Denial Machine

Despite the overwhelming consensus among climate experts that human activity is contributing to rising global temperatures, 66 percent of Americans incorrectly believe there is "a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening." The conservative media has fueled this confusion by distorting scientific research, hyping faux-scandals, and giving voice to groups funded by industries that have a financial interest in blocking action on climate change. Meanwhile, mainstream media outlets have shied away from the "controversy" over climate change and have failed to press U.S. policymakers on how they will address this global threat. When climate change is discussed, mainstream outlets sometimes strive for a false balance that elevates marginal voices and enables them to sow doubt about the science even in the face of mounting evidence.

Here, Media Matters looks at how conservative media outlets give industry-funded "experts" a platform, creating a polarized misunderstanding of climate science.



i can post something that debunks that, but if i do i get a 12 hr ban...seems like there is 2 sets of rules on here at times...
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
re: a question asked earlier.

Cat5hurricane is a handle permabanned from wu that has returned time and again under different handles and got banned again and again.


Thanks for the response.
.
Quoting wxchaser97:

It is funny that I'm watching that movie right now on DVD.
Great movie.. I just found out that the mom was the same lady in "Close Encounters of the Third Kind"
Quoting goosegirl1:


I keep asking serious questions to someone that get met by silence. I am not being disrespectful, I don't recall any name-calling, and I am unsure why this is... but it is. It amuses me because I am such a peaceful kind of person and don't try to offend anyone, so I am not used to stoney silence and it seems funny somehow.


Yes, I recall your repeated attempts.. He has failed to produce a credible source to support his claims despite efforts by others as well as you. Don't let it bother you. I learned stuff from the exchange, I'll bet you did too, focus on that.
.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Great movie.. I just found out that the mom was the same lady in "Close Encounters of the Third Kind"
And I did put my tongue on the monkey bars when I was a little girl in Ohio
Quoting pcola57:


How far do you go back Bielle?
I had a different handle before I joined in.."rnydzy"


How far do I go back? Well, I remember watching Hurricane Hazel move up the staircase inside my house on Toronto Island. If you mean how far do I go back on this site, I found it only about a year before my join date. I've only ever been "Bielle".
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Great movie.. I just found out that the mom was the same lady in "Close Encounters of the Third Kind"

Yes it is and "Close Encounters of the Third Kind" is good too. I like Independence Day just a little better though.

Bopha sure looks to be wrapping up and could become a typhoon soon. An eyewall is forming based off of microwave imagery.
Tomorrow is the end of the 2012 Hurricane Season.
Highlights this year that immediately come to mind include Isaac nearly messing up the Republican convention, Isaac proving the new infrastructure to prevent flooding in New Orleans works, but won't prevent flooding in Terrebonne.

Sandy gave New York, New Jersey and Long Island a wake up call.
Oh yeah, and western Caribbean was very quiet even though they had very high SSTs. (Are they in a drought?)
Texas got some relief but still could use more water, correct?
Haven't been on much lately due to horrendous work load this fall.
Quoting Bielle:


How far do I go back? Well, I remember watching Hurricane Hazel move up the staircase inside my house on Toronto Island. If you mean how far do I go back on this site, I found it only about a year before my join date. I've only ever been "Bielle".


Yikes!!
1176 deaths from Hazel after Carribean,Carolina's,and Canadian landfalls..
I wouldn't forget that either..
And yeah my old handle "rnydzy" didn't describe me in any way so I changed when I joined..
Welp. I thought we were in the dry season, but it still won't stop raining here.

Quoting Dakster:
Welp. I thought we were in the dry season, but it still won't stop raining here.


I thought it was the very end of November, not early to mid October. The high should range from the low 50s to 60F over the next few days in SE MI.
Anyone think we will see Winterstorm Caesar soon?
Quoting wxchaser97:

I thought it was the very end of November, not early to mid October. The high should range from the low 50s to 60F over the next few days in SE MI.


I filled up the pool and washed the car.

What did you do to mess up the weather?
The tornado in Italy a few days will likely be classified as an upper-end EF3 to EF4. The video below shows the tornado with a brief horizontal vortex, something you only see with tornadoes at the very top of the scale.

*****Starting in Now*****

The end of the 2012 Hurricane Season Barometer Bob show is on tonight your time at 8pm eastern. This will be a 3 hour special. So make sure you are prepared and ready to join us for this broadcast.
Bob's first guest is Scott McPartland, we will talk about Hurricane Sandy and his experiences with this storm in New York. Also other chaser discussion and news.
Bob's second guest is John Ruggiano from Ruggie Weather located in New Jersey. Bob and John will discuss John's Winter Weather outlook, and chat about other outlooks for the 2012/2013 Winter.
Then being it's the end of the 2012 Hurricane Season we will talk about it and Sandy.
Lots of controversy about whether watches and warnings should have been issued for Sandy. Bob will be laying it on the line and giving his personal opinion.
Join us in Storm Chat and watch the show live at http://irc.barometerbob.net/
614. beell
Quoting MrMixon:

The original study (abstract here - full article paywalled, unfortunately) is probably sound. But that Register article makes several conceptual leaps which are far beyond what is said in the abstract.

For instance:

"If the Greenland ice losses aren't accelerating, there's no real reason to worry about them."

I'm not sure how the editors let that statement go through. First - Greenland is, indeed, still losing ice at a rapid clip (~200 gigatons per year according to the article). Moreover, the losses ARE still accelerating... just perhaps hot as quickly as the initial measurements suggested.

Besides, to say that 200Gt/yr of ice loss is not a concern because it isn't accelerating is like saying you shouldn't be concerned if your car is barreling towards a brick wall so long as the car maintains its current speed.


A little late to the party but an even-handed response and summary of the salient points contained in the Princeton study, Mr. M.

It may have already been posted (too much noise/crap to read through!(on both sides!))....the full and the free document
www.princeton.edu/geosciences
Mornin' Aussie!
Quoting indianrivguy:


Yes, I recall your repeated attempts.. He has failed to produce a credible source to support his claims despite efforts by others as well as you. Don't let it bother you. I learned stuff from the exchange, I'll bet you did too, focus on that.



I'm not at all hurt by this, and I got all the info I needed. No worries!
Quoting yoboi:



i can post something that debunks that, but if i do i get a 12 hr ban...seems like there is 2 sets of rules on here at times...

Or maybe it says something about the source that is "debunking" it? Maybe it isn't really debunking anything at all, but is part of what the article is addressing in the first place?
618. yoboi
Quoting indianrivguy:


Yes, I recall your repeated attempts.. He has failed to produce a credible source to support his claims despite efforts by others as well as you. Don't let it bother you. I learned stuff from the exchange, I'll bet you did too, focus on that.


i have data to debunk some things i posted it the other night and within 2 min it was removed and i was banned for 12 hrs....there is 2 sets of rules on here...
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Aussie!

Mornin' Mate!



Scott McPartland is on the Barometer Bob Show right now talking about Hurricane Sandy.
that's the funny thing. these are the same guys who demanded Nea cough up his own personal carbon budget, despite the fact that that has nothing at all to do with whether climate change is real or not, and have hounded him for it for the last week or so.

yet when one of them says that the actual anomaly data set others bring up is dead wrong, and we ask him to show us some better or alternate data, we get crickets.

apparently in their world, some dude on the internet's personal energy usage really is a more important metric in judging the reality of climate change than 100 years of temperature measurements. god help us all.

Quoting indianrivguy:


Yes, I recall your repeated attempts.. He has failed to produce a credible source to support his claims despite efforts by others as well as you. Don't let it bother you. I learned stuff from the exchange, I'll bet you did too, focus on that.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST November 30 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Bopha (990 hPa) located at 3.6N 146.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.6N 143.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
48 HRS: 5.9N 140.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
72 HRS: 7.2N 136.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
Quoting Xandra:
From Media Matters for America:

Meet The Climate Denial Machine

Despite the overwhelming consensus among climate experts that human activity is contributing to rising global temperatures, 66 percent of Americans incorrectly believe there is "a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening." The conservative media has fueled this confusion by distorting scientific research, hyping faux-scandals, and giving voice to groups funded by industries that have a financial interest in blocking action on climate change. Meanwhile, mainstream media outlets have shied away from the "controversy" over climate change and have failed to press U.S. policymakers on how they will address this global threat. When climate change is discussed, mainstream outlets sometimes strive for a false balance that elevates marginal voices and enables them to sow doubt about the science even in the face of mounting evidence.

Here, Media Matters looks at how conservative media outlets give industry-funded "experts" a platform, creating a polarized misunderstanding of climate science.




Media Matters??!!

Bunch of left-wing haters.

LMAO!
623. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Or maybe it says something about the source that is "debunking" it? Maybe it isn't really debunking anything at all, but is part of what the article is addressing in the first place?



no it's the big taboo to say on here because i had never seen it discussed on here before
Bopha looks on the virge of being a Typhoon. Here is the latest microwave.

Quoting beell:


A little late to the party but an even-handed response and summary of the salient points contained in the Princeton study, Mr. M.

It may have already been posted (too much noise/crap to read through!)....the full and the free document
www.princeton.edu/geosciences


No, nobody had located or linked to the original article. That's awesome - thanks! I just gave it a quick read and will look at it in more detail when I have time. But it was quite clear from my quick read of the full article that the Register news piece referenced earlier today was WAY off the mark.

The lesson here is to ALWAYS skip the news article and go straight to the source when/if you can (knocking down or circumventing more of these journal paywalls would help tremendously...)
626. beell
@625 MrMixon:
Based on my understanding of the parts of the paper that were in english, for true on all counts.
627. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:
that's the funny thing. these are the same guys who demanded Nea cough up his own personal carbon budget, despite the fact that that has nothing at all to do with whether climate change is real or not, and have hounded him for it for the last week or so.

yet when one of them says that the actual anomaly data set others bring up is dead wrong, and we ask him to show us some better or alternate data, we get crickets.

apparently in their world, some dude on the internet's personal energy usage really is a more important metric in judging the reality of climate change than 100 years of temperature measurements. god help us all.




i showed it and got banned and a gag order....
Quoting MrMixon:


No, nobody had located or linked to the original article. That's awesome - thanks! I just gave it a quick read and will look at it in more detail when I have time. But it was quite clear from my quick read of the full article that the Register news piece referenced earlier today was WAY off the mark.

The lesson here is to ALWAYS skip the news article and go straight to the source when/if you can (knocking down or circumventing more of these journal paywalls would help tremendously...)
Indeed. I've run through the full PNAS article three times, and all I can say is that Lewis Page, the author of the piece in the Register, appears to have gotten just one thing right--his name. And given how badly he mangled the PNAS article's conclusion, I might need to see his birth certificate before I believe even that.
hmmm..look in the last three blogs for two words and could not find them..

"YOU'RE RIGHT"

maybe admin needs to create a wunderbot when those words actually populate in a comment during the "Great Debate Of Climate Change 2012"
630. yoboi
Quoting ncstorm:
hmmm..look in the last three blogs for two words and could not find them..

"YOU'RE RIGHT"

maybe admin needs to create a wunderbot when those words actually populate in a comment during the "Great Debate Of Climate Change 2012"


they have something that pops up quick when ya say it bammm banned
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Bopha looks on the virge of being a Typhoon. Here is the latest microwave.



Bopha appears to be developing a ragged eye and has good spiral bands around the cyclone on satellite and microwave imagery for the past several hours. It is definitely close to typhoon status. Hope the Philippines and Palau are prepared for Bopha.
Quoting ncstorm:
hmmm..look in the last three blogs for two words and could not find them..

"YOU'RE RIGHT"

maybe admin needs to create a wunderbot when those words actually populate in a comment during the "Great Debate Of Climate Change 2012"


Given the general level of usage, you might find "your right". :)
Quoting MrMixon:


No, nobody had located or linked to the original article. That's awesome - thanks! I just gave it a quick read and will look at it in more detail when I have time. But it was quite clear from my quick read of the full article that the Register news piece referenced earlier today was WAY off the mark.

The lesson here is to ALWAYS skip the news article and go straight to the source when/if you can (knocking down or circumventing more of these journal paywalls would help tremendously...)
There is a pdf linked at the end of the abstract page you posted for the Princeton study. They call it "Supporting information." Downloaded it. Seems to be lots of graphics.

Most people can't digest a scientific article. Still does not excuse journalistic bias. Guess I'm just beginning to realize traditional media and internet blogs are not true journalism. Maybe some of the better newspaper sites are, but, even then, you see Op-Ed presented as though it's a news article.
634. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Indeed. I've run through the full PNAS article three times, and all I can say is that Lewis Page, the author of the piece in the Register, appears to have gotten just one thing right--his name. And given how badly he mangled the PNAS article's conclusion, I might need to see his birth certificate before I believe even that.



i challenge you to a debate on here anytime if we can have a no ban rule in effect from DR M......
Quoting ncstorm:
hmmm..look in the last three blogs for two words and could not find them..

"YOU'RE RIGHT"

maybe admin needs to create a wunderbot when those words actually populate in a comment during the "Great Debate Of Climate Change 2012"


I looked. You're right, nobody has said that before.
Quoting Civicane49:


Bopha appears to be developing a ragged eye and has good spiral bands around the cyclone on satellite and microwave imagery for the past several hours. It is definitely close to typhoon status. Hope the Philippines and Palau are prepared for Bopha.

PAGASA hasn't said anything about it. it's not in there area of responsibility.
Link
Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Quoting yoboi:



i challenge you to a debate on here anytime if we can have a no ban rule in effect from DR M......

Why don't you make a blog. do it there.
638. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

Why don't you make a blog. do it there.



whatever makes neap feel safe i will agree to...
Quoting VaStormGuy:


I looked. You're right, nobody has said that before.

Plus signs indicate approval.
Quoting AussieStorm:

PAGASA hasn't said anything about it. it's no in there area of responsibility.
Link
Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).


It has not reached Philippines' Area of Responsibility yet but is forecast to enter the area in the next few days. JMA currently has the latest information of the cyclone. Once it reaches the area, PAGASA will have latest information regarding the cyclone.

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 3.5N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.5N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 4.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 4.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 5.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 6.3N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.8N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.3N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 11.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 3.6N 145.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

Bopha:

Quoting Civicane49:
Bopha:


Eye see an eye with Bopha...
Closeup image of Bopha:

Quoting yoboi:



whatever makes neap feel safe i will agree to...

It just means the admins aren't going to ban ya's cause it's not taking up main blog space


Russia's Tolbachik volcano, Kamchatka poses a hazard to aviation with ash plume reaching altitude of 33,000 ft.
Quoting Civicane49:


It has not reached Philippines' Area of Responsibility yet but is forecast to enter the area in the next few days. JMA currently has the latest information of the cyclone. Once it reaches the area, PAGASA will have latest information regarding the cyclone.


But by then they will be chasing there butts trying to evac people from possible effected areas. They'll get 24-36hr. Not enough time. I've been there.
Quoting AussieStorm:

But by then they will be chasing there butts trying to evac people from possible effected areas.


Well, I hope residents in the Philippines are prepared by monitoring Bopha before it's too late.
648. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

It just means the admins aren't going to ban ya's cause it's taking up blog space


Russia's Tolbachik volcano, Kamchatka poses a hazard to aviation with ash plume reaching altitude of 33,000 ft.



how ever he wants to do it we had one about 6 months ago and i got banned when i opened up the war chest....since then he won't respond because it was brutal
Quoting Civicane49:


Well, I hope residents in the Philippines are prepared by monitoring Bopha without warning.

They wouldn't know anything about it. I've been doing my bit, but it depends on when PAGASA and the media there start forecasting it. Most people in the provinces have cell phones, they use them for FB and texting only.
Quoting yoboi:



how ever he wants to do it we had one about 6 months ago and i got banned when i opened up the war chest....since then he won't respond because it was brutal

But if you challenge Nea to a debate on a personal blog and you link it here. And no one else can comment in the blog, just a read only blog so it's between you and Nea only. It would be interesting, to say the least.
652. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

But if you challenge Nea to a debate on a personal blog and you link it here. And no one else can comment in the blog, just a read only blog so it's between you and Nea only. It would be interesting, to say the least.


i sent him an e-mail whatever makes him feel safe i will go for....
Quoting yoboi:


i sent him an e-mail whatever makes him feel safe i will go for....


I doubt very much that "safety" is his issue. It was yours, however. You asked for assurance that you wouldn't get banned.
worth reading IMHO

PBS Raises Modern Day Dust Bowl Questions
By K. McDonald on November 28th, 2012

A recent 4-hour PBS Special, “The Dust Bowl”, by Ken Burns, was widely watched. The following writing is related to that show and is by the Environmental Working Group’s Senior Advisor, Don Carr (Twitter @DonEWG). Coincidentally, NOAA’s “Significant Events for October 2012″ report included this: “Strong winds combined with drought conditions to create a large dust storm across CO, KS, NE, OK, and WY on Oct 17-18 closing several major highways.” (Below, is a NASA space photo of that dust storm.) One of the take-away messages here is this — we as taxpayers do not want to decouple good land stewardship from subsidy payments to farmers — something currently on the agenda as this farm bill gets reworked.

656. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


I doubt very much that "safety" is his issue. It was yours, however. You asked for assurance that you wouldn't get banned.


the only ground rule i ask for is no cussing....no holds bar data gets submitted...
3) The recent drought that ravaged most of the country’s farmland spurred a dust storm in October that stretched across Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. It was so big that it could be seen from space.

Betting on fossil water

What stands between the United States and another environmental catastrophe that leaves millions of acres blowing in the wind is the Ogallala aquifer, which covers about 175,000 square miles. Geologic action created this reservoir more than a million years ago.

Like oil, this is fossil water that cannot be renewed once it is pumped out. Some 82 percent of the people living above the aquifer depend on it for clean drinking water. Stunningly, much of this precious and irreplaceable water is being used to grow corn to feed pigs and turkeys.

More worrisome, today nearly half the water is gone. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, it “is being depleted at an unsustainable rate.”

In Burns’ film, Charles Shaw of Cimarron County, Oklahoma, says, “The only thing holding that ground together is that irrigation water that comes out of the Ogallala…we only got about 20 years of water left.”
658. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


I doubt very much that "safety" is his issue. It was yours, however. You asked for assurance that you wouldn't get banned.


i got banned within in 2 min the other night when i submitted some data it was a big taboo
Quoting yoboi:


i got banned within in 2 min the other night when i submitted some data it was a big taboo

You probably got banned cause to many people "-" your comment.
Quoting yoboi:


the only ground rule i ask for is no cussing....no holds bar data gets submitted...


Could your potential readers put in a request for standard punctuation and sentence structure? :)
Quoting AussieStorm:

They wouldn't know anything about it. I've been doing my bit, but it depends on when PAGASA and the media there start forecasting it. Most people in the provinces have cell phones, they use them for FB and texting only.


That would be a problem for people in the Philippines unaware of the cyclone unless PAGASA alerted them way advanced. However, their friends and relatives from other countries can alert them if they are aware of the storm. People in the provinces can find satellite images and the forecast of the storm's path from different weather sites other than PAGASA.
Rules of the Road:

3. No Monomania.

Since most of us don't use this word in our daily lives, I'll provide the definition here:

mono·ma·nia noun \ˌmä-nə-ˈmā-nē-ə, -nyə\

1: mental illness especially when limited in expression to one idea or area of thought
2: excessive concentration on a single object or idea


So I'm thinking... now I'm just speculating here... that perhaps people don't get banned for posting forbidden data. Rather, perhaps they get banned for violating one of the Rules of the Road.
664. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

You probably got banned cause to many people "-" your comment.


nah it was late and a slow time on blog....
Quoting txjac:


Thanks for the response Nea.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lewis Page--the author of that opinion piece--is a pretty rabid denialist, cranking out piece after illogical piece with titles like "Global warming still stalled since 1998", "Climate NON-change: No increase in droughts since 1950", "An ICE AGE is coming, only CO2 can save us", and "Low sunspot activity linked to rivers freezing: Mini Ice Age on way?". In other words, he can be easily dismissed as the low-knowledge, anti-science crank that he is.

Now, one need only read a few snippets of Page's newest piece to realize how seriously off the mark he is. The PNAS article looked at Greenland ice mass change over a 9-year period, and noted that the mass loss trend had remained linear. It also noted that the SE and NW coasts of Greenland were losing ice the quickest, while the center of Greenland had been slowing gaining ice. How Lewis jumped from there to the assumption that a) maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm, b) it will probably be less than that, c) there'll thus be "hardly any" difference between sea level now and then, and d) there's no reason to worry.

I rarely read such silliness--and for very good reason.


If one calculates the mass of the ice sheet from its volume, and using the 200 Gt/yr figure, on a linear basis, the time to melt the entire ice sheet is in the ballpark of 13000 years, as Page claims. Again, using the 6.5 m sea level rise if the entire ice sheet melts in 13K years, 118 years of melting gives approximately 5cm of sea level rise. You can discuss the reality of the linearity of melting over 13K years but the numbers are correct.
Quoting MrMixon:
Rules of the Road:

3. No Monomania.

Since most of us don't use this word in our daily lives, I'll provide the definition here:

mono·ma·nia noun \ˌmä-nə-ˈmā-nē-ə, -nyə\

1: mental illness especially when limited in expression to one idea or area of thought
2: excessive concentration on a single object or idea


So I'm thinking... now I'm just speculating here... that perhaps people don't get banned for posting forbidden data. Rather, perhaps they get banned for violating one of the Rules of the Road.


I think you have hit the point on the head ..
667. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


Could your potential readers put in a request for standard punctuation and sentence structure? :)



lol sure like neap obese brother analogy on the sofa sure...
Im back from work now...

Is the eye looking feature an eye really or dry air...I think its dry air
Quoting Civicane49:


That would be a problem for people in the Philippines unaware of the cyclone unless PAGASA alerted them way advanced. However, their friends and relatives from other countries can alert them if they are aware of the storm. People in the provinces can find satellite images and the forecast of the storm's path from different weather sites other than PAGASA.

People there are just not aware. I have been there 4 times. Last time we had a TS pass by and it dumped about 4inches in 10minutes, I have never seen rain like it ever before. The street flooded in minutes of the rain starting. the street was under 2ft of water after 20mins. We had people grabbing there stuff and bringing it into our house cause our house is built 4ft above street level. we must of had 30-50 people in our house. it was crazy. 2hrs later the water had gone and the clean up was underway.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im back from work now...

Is the eye looking feature an eye really or dry air...I think its dry air


Nah. I think it is developing a ragged eye. Atmospheric environment is moist around Bopha.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im back from work now...

Is the eye looking feature an eye really or dry air...I think its dry air

There is no dry air surrounding the circulation and microwave imagery suggested an eye was forming so I will go with actual eye.
Quoting Civicane49:


Nah. I think it is developing a ragged eye. Atmospheric environment is moist around Bopha.

Quoting wxchaser97:

There is no dry air surrounding the circulation and microwave imagery suggested an eye was forming so I will go with actual eye.


of wow.... whoops!

So is it really doing it now?
Quoting yoboi:



lol sure like neap obese brother analogy on the sofa sure...


??? As they say on Wikipedia: you have a diff for that? (Trans: show me what you mean.)
Quoting yoboi:



lol sure like neap obese brother analogy on the sofa sure...


I think it's time to put the beer back into the refrigerator.

18Z GFS @ 204 hours.

Quoting MidMOwx:


I think it's time to put the beer back into the refrigerator.

18Z GFS @ 204 hours. Might get another chill in my part of the country.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

of wow.... whoops!

So is it really doing it now?


Bopha has been trying to maintain a ragged eye throughout much of the day. It should be a typhoon very soon if not one right now.

Quoting MidMOwx:


I think it's time to put the beer back into the refrigerator.




Can we stop the insults & innuendo please.
Bopha is probably a typhoon.

Quoting Civicane49:


That would be a problem for people in the Philippines unaware of the cyclone unless PAGASA alerted them way advanced. However, their friends and relatives from other countries can alert them if they are aware of the storm. People in the provinces can find satellite images and the forecast of the storm's path from different weather sites other than PAGASA.


tweeted by PAGASA

Tropical Cyclone Update: 29/NOV/12, There is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). However, all are advised to monitor updates especially a weather disturbance seen approximately 2,400 km East Southeast of Mindanao.
681. vanwx
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Media Matters??!!

Bunch of left-wing haters.

LMAO!


Thanks, I went and read it. Seems pretty good to me; oil and coal companies say there is no concensus, no climate problem and they say it with giant wads of cash that they don't pay tax on.
30/0230 UTC 3.7N 145.8E T4.0/4.0 BOPHA -- West Pacific
683. DDR
If the gfs verifies,could be some serious flooding issues for Trinidad and Tobago,6-10 inches is shown by the gfs
Quoting Civicane49:


Its getting that look that most system take for RI to take place.
Im not too familiar with the tropics of wpac...

are the waters warm enough all year long to support cyclones??? How about the upper atmosphere conditions?
who cal tell me?
Quoting wxchaser97:
My Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Storm Alberto (AL012012)


cool...
I sooo can't wait for NHC Sandy analysis...
Quoting allancalderini:
Its getting that look that most system take for RI to take place.


Indeed. Bopha may intensify quickly once the inner core is solidified. Environmental conditions remain quite favorable for Bopha to intensify.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


cool...
I sooo can't wait for NHC Sandy analysis...

I think Sandy will be upgraded to major hurricane.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im not too familiar with the tropics of wpac...

are the waters warm enough all year long to support cyclones??? How about the upper atmosphere conditions?
who cal tell me?

Waters are warm all year round, well and truly enough to support a TC and that heat goes down deep. Atmosphericly only the central WPAC is the only area where a TC can form due to strong cold fronts sweeping down out of China.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think Sandy will be upgraded to major hurricane.


I also believe that Sandy was briefly a major hurricane when it hit Cuba. I expect an upgrade.
Of course, the 00z GFS continues to develop Valerie. I'm still not sure we will get development out of it even though it is only a couple days away.
60hrs:
well, I'm gonna go ahead for the list of 2013
some are bolded for a reason...

Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy

Quoting wxchaser97:
Of course, the 00z GFS continues to develop Valerie. I'm still not sure we will get development out of it even though it is only a couple days away.
60hrs:


That system will likely have subtropical characteristics as it is expected to be asymmetric but is a warm core system. Though, I still have some doubts that it will become Valerie.

How can Bopha strengthens so close to the equator??

This basing has a bunch of surprises
BULLETIN - GUAM
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 PM CHST FRI NOV 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTENSIFYING...
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA TRACKING TOWARDS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE AND KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE
AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.7 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
660 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
815 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL
935 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS NOW MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
BY TONIGHT
. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...3.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 145.7
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.
Quoting Civicane49:


That system will likely have subtropical characteristics as it is asymmetric but is a warm core system. Though, I still have some doubts that it will become Valerie.


The last time the GFS showed Valerie it never materialized and I am skeptical that it will this time. Only time will tell though.
Quoting allancalderini:
Its getting that look that most system take for RI to take place.

Still too far south I think, but what do I know?
Quoting wxchaser97:

The last time the GFS showed Valerie it never materialized and I am skeptical that it will this time. Only time will tell though.


Agreed.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think Sandy will be upgraded to major hurricane.


you as well as many others remember this...right?
so it would really happen


I remember this so well.
NHC WORST FAIL!!!
702. vanwx
669
Quoting AussieStorm:

People there are just not aware. I have been there 4 times. Last time we had a TS pass by and it dumped about 4inches in 10minutes, I have never seen rain like it ever before. The street flooded in minutes of the rain starting. the street was under 2ft of water after 20mins. We had people grabbing there stuff and bringing it into our house cause our house is built 4ft above street level. we must of had 30-50 people in our house. it was crazy. 2hrs later the water had gone and the clean up was underway.


Aussie, I can't remember where I read it but someone building on Long Island decided to go over-code and raise their warehouse 4',it added $50k to the project but was the only Sandy survivor and the base for rescue operations. I keep wondering about about the infrastructure rebuild; will they make the same so it fails again? Or put parks in down low? Or spend billions on surge gates?
A lot of the names on the 2013 and 2014 lists are seriously awful, I pray those are the ones that spin out to sea. Nature's been very good so far in making sure most of the ridiculously named storms don't hit land, but with more and more weird names those odds are going to go down.
Quoting wxgeek723:
A lot of the names on the 2013 and 2014 lists are seriously awful, I pray those are the ones that spin out to sea. Nature's been very good so far in making sure most of the ridiculously named storms don't hit land, but with more and more weird names those odds are going to go down.


you don't like the names or what?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you don't like the names or what?


Lmao no. I really don't.
Evening everyone. I watched video of an Italian tornado today which looked very odd with tiled roofs and a hilly countryside. I've wondered why we don't see news reports of multiple tornados doing severe damage in other countries and that was my question tonight. Then I thought, Ah Ha! I'll look in Wikipedia for worldwide tornados, and there they were, waterspouts and all, certainly in many areas. My failure to do a little advance research has given me a humbling learning moment. And the general topic today and the melting ice is making me very uneasy. I saw an arctic cruise advertised today. Can we go see the north pole now in a cruise ship with all the amenities? Seems surreal.
Quoting wxgeek723:
A lot of the names on the 2013 and 2014 lists are seriously awful, I pray those are the ones that spin out to sea. Nature's been very good so far in making sure most of the ridiculously named storms don't hit land, but with more and more weird names those odds are going to go down.


o_O

I like the 2014 list.
710. vanwx
Quoting yoboi:


i got banned within in 2 min the other night when i submitted some data it was a big taboo

What was your data? or a link? Please
711. wxmod
Airport clouds covering several states in the midwest today. MODIS satellite photo. If you didn't see the bright blue sky, you may have seen the jet trails. Airport clouds cost you money, in raised winter heating bills.

Quoting wxchaser97:

The last time the GFS showed Valerie it never materialized and I am skeptical that it will this time. Only time will tell though.
I remember that system the NHC didn`t even put it as an invest as it stay cold core. how many days are away for suppose Valerie to develop?
Quoting KoritheMan:


o_O

I like the 2014 list.


for Ike's Ian?
Quoting KoritheMan:


o_O

I like the 2014 list.


I used to until they threw Gonzalo on the list...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


for Ike's Ian?


Probably because I'm biased toward Gustav. You know, being hit with it and all.
kinda off topic but does anyone on here also doomsday prep?..
Quoting wxgeek723:
A lot of the names on the 2013 and 2014 lists are seriously awful, I pray those are the ones that spin out to sea. Nature's been very good so far in making sure most of the ridiculously named storms don't hit land, but with more and more weird names those odds are going to go down.


Whatever we call it, it will still be what it is. Sweet little Sandy was false advertising. What would a good name for her have been? Who is the worst and most destructive female in mythology?
Quoting wxmod:
Airport clouds covering several states in the midwest today. MODIS satellite photo. If you didn't see the bright blue sky, you may have seen the jet trails. Airport clouds cost you money, in raised winter heating bills.



There was a significant amount of natural water vapor over the Midwest today. Look:



Can you share the location and approximate time of the image you posted?
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Whatever we call it, it will still be what it is. Sweet little Sandy was false advertising. What would a good name for her have been? Who is the worst and most destructive female in mythology?


100% agree, I'm just saying if we're going to name storms they should at least be decent.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Probably because I'm biased toward Gustav. You know, being hit with it and all.


....da heck???
Quoting NJcat3cane:
kinda off topic but does anyone on here also doomsday prep?..


I mentally prep myself just in case, if that counts, lol.
Quoting wxgeek723:


100% agree, I'm just saying if we're going to name storms they should at least be decent.


attend the WMO meeting this spring...you could request a name replacement for Sandy and maybe Isaac and Ernesto...lol
Quoting wxgeek723:


I mentally prep myself just in case, if that counts, lol.


ohh thanks for mentioning it... now we are almost in the apocalypse month...

less than 20 days left for the world...lol
Quoting Civicane49:
The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season in 4.5 Minutes


4-1/2 minutes of pure amazement - and then came Sandy. Thanks for posting this.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


....da heck???


Me and Gustav... we like to do intimate things.
Quoting TropicTraveler:

4-1/2 minutes of pure amazement - and then came Sandy. Thanks for posting this.


Sandy wasn't amazing in her own right?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Me and Gustav... we like to do intimate things.


Get showered together???
Quoting wxgeek723:


I used to until they threw Gonzalo on the list...


I like Edouard and Isaias.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Me and Gustav... we like to do intimate things.


still..da heck???
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Get showered together???


I was thinking on that?
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Get showered together???


Something like that.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I like Edouard and Isaias.


I like Ian.. I think that could be a so destructive cat 5 cataclysmic hurricane...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Something like that.


awkward...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


awkward...


Careful. Gustav is very sensitive. He may be reading.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Sandy wasn't amazing in her own right?


Oh yeah! On the speed up she just wiggled her substantial backside and went whump all over New York and New Jersey, shimmied a little and got a whole bunch of others while she was at it. Awesome, amazing, screaming power. Humbling all those who did not know to tremble when she appeared, and even those who did know. When one of these comes in, we are nothing, we can only get out of the way and pray.
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Get showered together???


not just showered...remember we are talking about a hurricane
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Whatever we call it, it will still be what it is. Sweet little Sandy was false advertising. What would a good name for her have been? Who is the worst and most destructive female in mythology?
I'll bite- Eris!
Quoting KoritheMan:


I like Edouard and Isaias.


I like Edouard too but I don't think the public would appreciate such a name, lol.

Hurricane Edouard in 1996 was actually a fond storm of mine to study and look into.
Quoting srqthymesage:
I'll bite- Eris!

I keep thinking of the woman with snakes in her hair - Medusa, but she isn't bad enough. It has to be someone who brings screaming catastrophe when she turns and fixes her gaze on you. Maybe I'm looking for someone from the kids action heros cartoons.
Quoting Bielle:


Could your potential readers put in a request for standard punctuation and sentence structure? :)



My grammar Nazi daughter loves to see "your stupid". Her answer to that is, "You may not think I'm bright, but it's not so bad yet that I own stupid." :)
Quoting wxgeek723:


I like Edouard too but I don't think the public would appreciate such a name, lol.

Hurricane Edouard in 1996 was actually a fond storm of mine to study and look into.


It's right up there with those legendary names like Hugo or Andrew. In other words, it has the "I'ma **** your **** up" aura, which I always enjoy in a tropical cyclone. Incidentally, I feel Chantal will carry that legacy next year.
20 days... Everyone should have a bug out bag.. it cost under 100 dollars and is something u throw in your closet.. it could sit there for 25 years but you still know you have it... contents are simple.. inside a book bag goes: Alot of rope. differnt sizes. hand crank flashlight. 2 pair of wool socks and thick good gloves. a machete. 2 pocket knives. small flexable tubing. only a few feet needed. a tarp. a few painters masks. a water bottle with a fliter. a pot with a lid. pre baited mouse traps(if your in the woods) a hammer. few nails. atleast one mason jar with lid. about 25 unopened lighters. 20+ cotton balls completly covered in petroleoum jelly.

this leaves you plenty of room in a normal sized book bag. this is where u make the choice if you want to fill the bag up with more clothes and only some canned food and water bottles. or you can fit a good amount of cans and water bottles in the remaining space if your not worried about cold temps.. Bags change depending on location but this bag covers pretty much all grounds.

with those items in your bags it leaves you many resorces and ways of surviving from buliding shelter to catching food and filtering water most important.
guys...look at this.. from NWS. For anyone wanting to go there
completely ridiculous at Mt. Shasta, CA

Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 22. Wind chill values as low as -5. Windy, with a south southwest wind 85 to 95 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 36 to 42 inches possible.

there are already over 50" of snow on the ground... look at the major hurricane gusts A total of 80-90" of snow

Friday Snow showers. Temperature falling to around 15 by 4pm. Wind chill values as low as -12. Windy, with a south southwest wind 80 to 85 mph decreasing to 70 to 75 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

now between 100-130 inches

Friday Night Snow. Temperature rising to around 19 by midnight. Wind chill values as low as -14. Windy, with a south southwest wind 70 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

now between 125-150 inches

Saturday Snow. High near 20. Wind chill values as low as -14. Windy, with a southwest wind 75 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.

now 145-185 inches

Saturday Night Snow. Low around 19. Windy, with a south southwest wind 70 to 80 mph increasing to 85 to 95 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 28 to 34 inches possible.

now 170-215 inches

Sunday Snow. High near 18. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

then to 180-230 inches!!!! that's 15-20 FEET!
Quoting TropicTraveler:

4-1/2 minutes of pure amazement - and then came Sandy. Thanks for posting this.


Your welcome.
Bedtime in this zone. Thanks to the gang for being here for my weather fix.
749. wxmod
Quoting MrMixon:


There was a significant amount of natural water vapor over the Midwest today. Look:



Can you share the location and approximate time of the image you posted?


Satellite photo times are available at the MODIS website. It takes a bit of work to pinpoint them. I would guess aprox 10AM central time. While you are at their site, take a look at the way the clouds are forming and their color. http://earthdata.nasa.gov/data/near-real-time-dat a
Quoting goosegirl1:


:)
Chantal Nestor and Van are the names we should be aware I accept Humberto too,but I feel Ingrid will be a fail this is the least threatening I name imo of the six lists in use.
hey guys
Quoting allancalderini:
Chantal Nestor and Van are the names we should be aware I accept Humberto too,but I feel Ingrid will be a fail this is the least threatening I name imo of the six lists in use.

true... Ingrid is not...would we want a surprise this year??
Saturn boasts some unique features in its atmosphere. When the Voyager missions traveled to the planet in the early 1980s, it imaged a hexagon-shaped cloud formation near the north pole. Twenty-five years later, infrared images taken by Cassini revealed the storm was still spinning, powered by jet streams that push it to speeds of about 220 mph (100 meters per second). At 15,000 miles (25,000 km) across, the long-lasting storm could easily contain an Earth or two.

via space.com

755. vanwx
628. Neapolitan
Quoting Neapolitan:
Indeed. I've run through the full PNAS article three times, and all I can say is that Lewis Page, the author of the piece in the Register, appears to have gotten just one thing right--his name. And given how badly he mangled the PNAS article's conclusion, I might need to see his birth certificate before I believe even that.


L. Page used to have something to say on tech but has consistently been anti-sustainable anti-climate and anti-anything not microsoft or Intel. I quit reading it except for the cartoon and the space project. Do you think it's some sort of English phenom? He seems to have a board of like minded types.
756. vanwx
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Whatever we call it, it will still be what it is. Sweet little Sandy was false advertising. What would a good name for her have been? Who is the worst and most destructive female in mythology?


Cassandra, prophetess of doom never believed.
757. vanwx
Quoting NJcat3cane:
kinda off topic but does anyone on here also doomsday prep?..


Yep.
Quoting NJcat3cane:
kinda off topic but does anyone on here also doomsday prep?..


What kind of doomsday are you talking about?

If your talking about emergency preparation for hurricanes and such, a number of people on here think about and post about at the beginning of every hurricane season.

If you're talking about Extinction Level Event (ELE) type of doomsday scenarios (massive asteroid impact, supervolcanic eruptions, etc.) then you're wasting your time and your money. Such events are exceedingly rare, and most of them would kill you no matter where you decided to hole up. They're called extinction level events for a reason.

If you're talking about socio-economic collapse, it's still a waste of time and money, but not nearly as bad as trying to prepare for ELE type doomsday scenarios (assuming such destabilization doesn't cause global nuclear war). If a world nuclear war results, then you're back to an ELE type of event.

Assuming such wars don't occur, and you survive the initial destabilization process (not good odds depending on where you live) then you'll have to be able to sustain yourself for quite some time (longer than canned foods are going to last) until some semblance of social order is restored.

If you really want to prepare for a socio-economic collapse, go live in an Amish community for a couple of years. You'll probably learn a lot more long-term survival skills there, and you don't need to fork over $25,000 dollars to some charlatan selling the ultimate doomsday survival package or train yourself like Rambo.
Ah, so 2007's list will be back next year. Keep an eye on Humberto. He's a sneaky ummmm fella. We had Eduoard 08 too. Hope they both lost my address. :) Four years with no TX hurricane hits is still 6 shy of the longest hurricane drought. But I'll have to look up what the record is for no tropical anything to hit TX. Four years on that too.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
But I'll have to look up what the record is for no tropical anything to hit TX. Four years on that too.
Don?
I dont think we will be seeing this level of honesty again. Really.
Worshipping the computer models....I am glad they cannot be hacked by men and that the -data- is just magically computer generated out of raw honest data.


Bryan Norcross

"Isn't it strange that a hurricane in the Bahamas would somehow turn into a monster mega-storm and slam into the Northeast at the end of October? Aren't hurricanes supposed to weaken as they move north over cold water? What the hell is going on?

The answers are... yes, yes, and we're not completely sure. This is a beyond-strange situation. It's unprecedented and bizarre. Hurricanes almost always bend out to sea in October, although there have been some exceptions when storms went due north, but rarely. No October tropical systems in the record book have turned left into the northeast coast.

The strong evidence we have that a significant, maybe historic, storm is going to hit the east coast is that EVERY reliable computer forecast model now says it's going to happen. The only way we can forecast the weather four or five days days from now is with the aid of these super-complex computer programs run on supercomputers. The two best, the European and the U.S. GFS (Global Forecast System) run by NOAA, are now in reasonable agreement that there IS going to be an extraordinarily unusual confluence of events that results in a massive storm.

The upper-air steering pattern that is part of the puzzle is not all that unheard of. It happens when the atmosphere gets blocked over the Atlantic and the flow over the U.S. doubles back on itself. Sometimes big winter storms are involved.

The freak part is that a hurricane happens to be in the right place in the world to get sucked into this doubled-back channel of air and pulled inland from the coast.

And the double-freak part is that the upper level wind, instead of weakening the storm and simply absorbing the moisture - which would be annoying enough - is merging with the tropical system to create a monstrous hybrid vortex. A combination of a hurricane and a nor'easter.

At least that's what the models are saying. And since all of the independent models are saying something similar, we have to believe them and be ready."
Quoting KoritheMan:

Don?


I think they took him off as officially hitting TX. Could be wrong? Lol. But yep, forgot poor Don. Of course there wasn't much tropical left of him after that whoopin' by the ridge. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:

Don?


He went puff before even coming close
Ya got me Kori. Apparently made landfall as a depression. According to Wiki. Couldn't get into the TCR. Although the third link on the list was Koritheman's tcr on TS Beryl. :)

Tropical Storm Don was the fourth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season and the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States during the 2011 season. Forming from an area of low pressure along a tropical wave, Don was operationally upgraded straight to tropical storm intensity on July 27, after a reconnaissance aircraft noted the presence of tropical-storm-force winds. It tracked across the Gulf of Mexico and reached a peak intensity of 50 mph (85 km/h) before moving ashore in Texas on July 30 as a tropical depression. Initially, Don was a possible catalyst for relief to the drought-stricken state, but the system dissipated rapidly after making landfall, providing very little in the way of help to the state.
Don went like this

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Don went like this



Lol. I don't think Don's demise was that pretty.
No rest from heat for Sydney

Sydney will struggle through a very warm night before confronting the hottest start to summer in eight years.

Temperatures soared across the Sydney Basin on Friday as a very hot air mass was drawn across the region ahead of an approaching trough.

The city managed to reach 29 degrees, which is five above average, although failed to climb higher due to a sea breeze. Further west though, Bankstown and Parramatta both reached 39, which is 14 above average and the hottest November day in three years.

Tonight will see the mercury remain in the mid-to-high twenties as heat lingers over Sydney, making for an uncomfortable night. This is around 8 degrees warmer than usual.

The warm start to Saturday will help western suburbs climb into the low-to-mid 40s during the day. The city and coastal suburbs are likely to reach the low to high 30s, thanks to strengthening northwesterly winds holding out a sea breeze. The sea breeze will bring humid conditions, particularly during the afternoon.

Saturday night will start out warm, although as the trough moves over the city during the night, southerly winds will bring cool relief.

Sunday will be significantly cooler than the previous two days, reaching a top in the mid 20s through much of the Sydney Basin.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2012
Quoting vanwx:


Cassandra, prophetess of doom never believed.

Pandora, who released all evil from the jar (mistranslated as box), and left Hope inside. Beats Cassie in my book
Quoting NJcat3cane:
kinda off topic but does anyone on here also doomsday prep?..

I'll worry about that on 12/22
Quoting AussieStorm:
No rest from heat for Sydney

Sydney will struggle through a very warm night before confronting the hottest start to summer in eight years.

Temperatures soared across the Sydney Basin on Friday as a very hot air mass was drawn across the region ahead of an approaching trough.

The city managed to reach 29 degrees, which is five above average, although failed to climb higher due to a sea breeze. Further west though, Bankstown and Parramatta both reached 39, which is 14 above average and the hottest November day in three years.

Tonight will see the mercury remain in the mid-to-high twenties as heat lingers over Sydney, making for an uncomfortable night. This is around 8 degrees warmer than usual.

The warm start to Saturday will help western suburbs climb into the low-to-mid 40s during the day. The city and coastal suburbs are likely to reach the low to high 30s, thanks to strengthening northwesterly winds holding out a sea breeze. The sea breeze will bring humid conditions, particularly during the afternoon.

Saturday night will start out warm, although as the trough moves over the city during the night, southerly winds will bring cool relief.

Sunday will be significantly cooler than the previous two days, reaching a top in the mid 20s through much of the Sydney Basin.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2012


will that give a jump start to your fire season ???
Texas braces for return of drought
Posted Thursday, Nov. 29, 2012

By Steve Campbell

sfcampbell@star-telegram.com

PERRIN -- Water managers are eyeing their gauges, farmers are watching wheat fields whither, ranchers are recalculating their herd numbers and city dwellers are dragging out their sprinklers again as drought rapidly intensifies across Texas.

A new federal survey shows the dreaded "d-word" is worming its way back as rainfall deficits mount and soil moisture, stream flows and water reserves quickly decline.

Ninety-four percent of Texas is now abnormally dry, 54 percent is stuck in severe drought and 25 percent is mired in the extreme category, up 10 percent from one week ago, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday.

For now, one year after a record Texas drought caused $7.62 billion in agricultural losses, 6 million acres of winter wheat are the biggest concern. Forty to 45 percent of the crop is rated poor to very poor, a 15-point jump from last week, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported.

"There's not much to eat out there. I remember the drought in the 1950s and I think we are in the same situation," said Francis, whose boot-level view mirrors the pessimistic assessment of Texas state climatologist John Nielsen Gammon.

"I say we are in year three of a drought now and the short-range forecast is not promising. There's nothing out there that will distinguish this from the drought of record in the 1950s which lasted six or seven years," Nielsen Gammon said.

A grim forecast

"It's grim, it looks like Texas is going to have between the second- to fourth-driest October-November period on record," he said. "We're ahead of the drought pace from two years ago."

The state is quickly catching up with this year's dire conditions in the High Plains, where 86 percent of the region is mired in severe drought and 27 percent is in exceptional drought, the most severe category.

Nationally, 76 percent of the contiguous United States is abnormally dry.

A wet winter and spring eased a critical water crisis in Texas but since April the spigot has been turned off.

Water supply reservoirs in the state have dipped from 76 percent full six months ago to 64 percent on Thursday, according to the Texas Water Development Board. One year ago, the reservoirs were 59 percent full.

The dry conditions across Texas concern fire managers who fought wildfires on nearly 4 million acres during the 2011 fire season, said Tom Spencer, head of the predictive services department for the Texas A&M Forest Service.

"The real concern is that we are still carrying a pretty good level of drought. It doesn't seem like there is anything on the horizon that is going to help that," he said "The neutral forecast for El Niño puts some uncertainty into what to expect."

2012 Mayan Apocalypse Rumors Have Dark Side, NASA Warns

By Stephanie Pappas, LiveScience Senior Writer | SPACE.com – Wed, Nov 28, 2012

NASA scientists took time on Wednesday (Nov. 28) to soothe 2012 doomsday fears, warning against the dark side of Mayan apocalypse rumors — frightened children and suicidal teens who truly fear the world may come to an end Dec. 21.

Thus NASA's involvement. The space agency maintains a 2012 information page debunking popular Mayan apocalypse rumors, such as the idea that a rogue planet will hit Earth on Dec. 21, killing everyone. (In fact, astronomers are quite good at detecting near-Earth objects, and any wandering planet scheduled to collide with Earth in three weeks would be the brightest object in the sky behind the sun and moon by now.)

"There is no true issue here," David Morrison, an astrobiologist at NASA Ames Research Center, said during a NASA Google+ Hangout event today (Nov. 28). "This is just a manufactured fantasy."

Unfortunately, Morrison said, the fantasy has real-life consequences. As one of NASA's prominent speakers on 2012 doomsday myths, Morrison said, he receives many emails and letters from worried citizens, particularly young people. Some say they can't eat, or are too worried to sleep, Morrison said. Others say they're suicidal.

"While this is a joke to some people and a mystery to others, there is a core of people who are truly concerned," he said.

Not every 2012 apocalypse believer thinks the world will end on Dec. 21. Some, inspired by New Age philosophies, expect a day of universal peace and spiritual transformation. But it's impressionable kids who have NASA officials worried.

"I think it's evil for people to propagate rumors on the Internet to frighten children," Morrison said.

Ultimately, concerns about Earth's fate would be better focused on slow-acting problems such as climate change rather than some sort of cosmic catastrophe, said Andrew Fraknoi, an astronomer at Foothill College in California.

Mitzi Adams, a heliophysicist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, agreed.

"The greatest threat to Earth in 2012, at the end of this year and in the future, is just from the human race itself," Adams said.
Mornin'Gang!

Evenin' Mate!
Quoting lahcuts:


If one calculates the mass of the ice sheet from its volume, and using the 200 Gt/yr figure, on a linear basis, the time to melt the entire ice sheet is in the ballpark of 13000 years, as Page claims. Again, using the 6.5 m sea level rise if the entire ice sheet melts in 13K years, 118 years of melting gives approximately 5cm of sea level rise. You can discuss the reality of the linearity of melting over 13K years but the numbers are correct.


Now that's what I'm talkin about!

LOL.
Well folks, we have 22 days left.

How are you going to spend each and every day like it is your last?
Good morning. Bopha is officially a typhoon and looks rather impressive right now with a lot of cold cloud tops over the center. A large, ragged eye has remained evident in microwave imagery and my guess is that it will try to clear it out sometime today or early tomorrow. Not looking good for the Philippines:



Quoting lahcuts:


If one calculates the mass of the ice sheet from its volume, and using the 200 Gt/yr figure, on a linear basis, the time to melt the entire ice sheet is in the ballpark of 13000 years, as Page claims. Again, using the 6.5 m sea level rise if the entire ice sheet melts in 13K years, 118 years of melting gives approximately 5cm of sea level rise. You can discuss the reality of the linearity of melting over 13K years but the numbers are correct.
You appear to have skipped the salient parts of both my comment and Page's opinion piece. See, Page engaged in the sort of misunderstanding, deceit, and overreach that many non-scientists do, especially those with an anti-science agenda. To wit:

The PNAS article was about corroborating satellite data of Greenland ice growth and loss with real-world observations. In his foolish denialist zeal, Page scanned that and came to the (wrong) conclusion that maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm (???), and followed that bit of chicanery with the laughably baseless comment that "it will probably be less than that". He then performed some sloppy legerdermain on that pile of dung, and ignorantly announced that that will mean "hardly any difference" between current and future sea levels. Then he finally topped of his sundae of stupidity by claiming "there's no reason to worry".

Yeah, I saw what he did there. If you didn't, I suggest re-reading his piece. That is, if you have the stomach for it... ;-)

Now, off to work. Big day today...
Can anyone tell me what the classification of Sandy was at landfall? I'm not sure if this has been discussed here and apologize if it has, but I have been without much internet access here in Long Beach, NY

My questions:

Was Sandy technically a hurricane or hybrid system?

Was Sandy fed baroclinically and was the gulf stream involved?

Has anyone heard how this will affect the victims with Property Insurance, as far as "Hurricane Deductibles" go?

TIA!
Good morning/evening everyone.
Aussie, you better stay in the a/c!
We're forecast for several days of close to 80 degrees here.
Good Mornin' all.
Good eve Aussie>
Bopha looking impressive considering its latitude.


49 degrees here on Bayou Grande this morning.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Well folks, we have 22 days left.

How are you going to spend each and every day like it is your last?




If I believed that, I'd have quit my job and would be most of the way towards maxing out every credit card I could get my grubby little paws onto.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Bopha is officially a typhoon and looks rather impressive right now with a lot of cold cloud tops over the center. A large, ragged eye has remained evident in microwave imagery and my guess is that it will try to clear it out sometime today or early tomorrow. Not looking good for the Philippines:





Is also starting to gain latitude that will help with the coriolis. Officially,is Severe Tropical Storm as the official agency JMA has not upgraded to typhoon but that is a given later today.

WTPQ50 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 03.9N 145.3E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 05.2N 142.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 020600UTC 06.5N 138.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 030600UTC 07.8N 134.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 040600UTC 09.4N 130.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
120HF 050600UTC 11.4N 126.3E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT =

Quoting PensacolaDoug:




If I believed that, I'd have quit my job and would be most of the way towards maxing out every credit card I could get my grubby little paws onto.


Mornin' Doug! and you too Ms. aislinnpaps!

Someone yesterday said they were going to buy all new furniture with first payments in 2013... laughed out loud I did.

49 eh.. brrrrr


778. notifbutwhen 6:18 AM EST on November 30, 2012

Didn't want you to feel neglected... I am uncertain but would venture a "both" for #1-2, a don't know on #3
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Two possibilities with that graph.

1) The world hasn't warmed since 1998.

2) It's a hoax.

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Rain totals in CA over the past 48 hrs: Mount Shasta, 5.54"; Crescent City, 4.97"; Santa Rosa, 4.06"; Sacramento, 1.23"

16 minRoberta Gonzales‏@RobertaCBS5

19 years in Bay Area and I have never heard such a powerful storm! Outages: 2,700 without power Peninsula, 6,000 South Bay, 2,000 North Bay.


47 minMelissa Crowley‏@MelissaCrowley

Flooding reported Arden@Avondale chains on 80, Sf flooding Treasure Island News10 crews out on streets live at 5am#news10

Time to run out the door, at least I should be able to take the kids out to recess today. Everyone have a great Friday! And Aussie, have a great Saturday!

Weekend's here!
Mornin' Yonz!

A very cool website, that I cannot figure out how to copy the images from, is worth a peruse. Someone posted this up a month or so ago, and I keep it handy on my tool bar to frequently check.

Wind Map

There is an archive page that is also interesting.. Man, March sure is windy... here is the page from the Sandy lamdfall... seems like nearly everything east of the Missip' is being influenced.. a really big girl.

Wind Map Historical

Afternoon! Lunchtime here in Scotland. From your link, It looks pretty windy in California. Hope they don't get all that snow.
1 minMelissa Crowley‏@MelissaCrowley

Intersection flooded Antelope Rd@Antelope N Road, possible tree down Rio Linda, 7600 block El Verano#news10
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/img/gfs_fcst _ar_current.gif
Melissa Crowley‏@MelissaCrowley

Hway 16/20 closed mud and rock slides#news10
NWSBayArea‏@NWSBayArea

Flash flood warning for the Petaluma area in Sonoma County http://1.usa.gov/TvIaj9 #bayarearain #sfweather #flooding
795. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
You appear to have skipped the salient parts of both my comment and Page's opinion piece. See, Page engaged in the sort of misunderstanding, deceit, and overreach that many non-scientists do, especially those with an anti-science agenda. To wit:

The PNAS article was about corroborating satellite data of Greenland ice growth and loss with real-world observations. In his foolish denialist zeal, Page scanned that and came to the (wrong) conclusion that maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm (???), and followed that bit of chicanery with the laughably baseless comment that "it will probably be less than that". He then performed some sloppy legerdermain on that pile of dung, and ignorantly announced that that will mean "hardly any difference" between current and future sea levels. Then he finally topped of his sundae of stupidity by claiming "there's no reason to worry".

Yeah, I saw what he did there. If you didn't, I suggest re-reading his piece. That is, if you have the stomach for it... ;-)

Now, off to work. Big day today...


One of ya'll (anyone?) check my math here as I am not the sharpest lightbulb in the drawer...

200 Gt/yr with an acceleration of ice loss of 8 Gt/yr (200 Gt the first year, 208-yr 2, 216-yr 3, etc) rounds out to about 40,240 Gt (or cubic kilometers if you prefer) through the year 2100.
360 cubic kilometers of ice to raise sea level 1 millimeter.

40,240/360 = 111mm of sea level rise or about 4" by 2100.

Luis, please don't spam the blog with all these tweets. There is no need to post every single one, if I (removed the "we"s i didn't want to speak for others) wanted to read them all, I would go look myself. The information, and event are very interesting, and I know you are very involved. You might be better served by picking important information, cleaning it up, and presenting it with some commentary from "you" as to what it means. Bunch them together after cleaning them up, but one after another after another with no commentary, soon becomes spam.

Now, I'm not anyone special, nor have any powers, I am simply making some suggestions that may improve the quality of your posts, and your standing here as a poster. Please take no offense as none is intended.
Quoting whitewabit:


will that give a jump start to your fire season ???

Mornin' all.

Fire season started in September. Currently there is 36 fires burning in NSW. 5 major fires in Queensland. 16 fires burning in Victoria, 4 majors. 15 fires burning in Tasmania, 4 majors. 7 fires burning in South Australia, 1 major. 1 fire burning in Western Australia.

Kristen Sze TV News‏@abc7kristensze

rain & wind bay area-wide rt now. thousands no power. check out the pg&e power outage map! http://www.pge.com/myhome/customerservice/outages/ … #bayarearain

4 minMike Nicco‏@MikeNiccoABC7

#Breaking - Penngrove Stream is flooding in Petaluma. Flash Flood Warning until 6:15am. #bayarearain #ABC7Mornings

5 minKristen Sze TV News‏@abc7kristensze

WB580/680 sig alert: big rig crash. NB 101 cotati mudslide, NB 101 b4 whipple injury ax, flooding EB 80 at tennessee, tree NB 101 millbrae!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Louis, please don't spam the blog with all these tweets. There is no need to post every single one, if I (removed the "we"s i didn't want to speak for others) wanted to read them all, I would go look myself. The information, and event are very interesting, and I know you are very involved. You might be better served by picking important information, cleaning it up, and presenting it with some commentary from "you" as to what it means. Bunch them together after cleaning them up, but one after another after another with no commentary, soon becomes spam.

Now, I'm not anyone special, nor have any powers, I am simply making some suggestions that may improve the quality of your posts, and your standing here as a poster. Please take no offense as none is intended.

I agree. I normally only post tweets that have images attached.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
21:00 PM JST November 30 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Bopha (980 hPa) located at 4.0N 144.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 5.4N 140.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
48 HRS: 6.7N 137.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
72 HRS: 7.9N 133.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
Storm heads south after lashing Ballarat



A storm has brought down trees, damaged houses and caused some flash flooding at Ballarat in western Victoria.

The State Emergency Service says it has received about 150 calls for help, mostly in the suburbs of Sebastopol and Mount Clear.

The storm is moving south towards Geelong, bringing large hailstones, strong winds and heavy rain.

SES spokesman Lachlan Quick says it is receiving more than three calls a minute.

"Building damage and trees down over roads appear to be the main concerns at this stage," he said.

"It looks as though there's some pretty significant hail associated with this storm and we've got some concerns with road safety given the number of trees down over roads but also there's going to be quite a number of people with damaged roofs."

Earlier, the storm brought down trees near Avoca, causing traffic delays on the Pyrenees Highway at Elmhurst.


- ABC

© ABC 2012
Hot and windy as crews battle fires

About 100 residents of Glen Huon in southern Tasmania were evacuated from their homes this afternoon as a bushfire approached Bermuda road.
It is one of two dozen bushfires still burning throughout the state, sparked by hot, windy conditions.
A spokesman for the Fire Service, Michael Goldsmith, says some of the Glen Huon residents are tonight returning to their homes
"The temperature's decreasing but the winds are still quite strong in each of those municipalities, and that's proving a little bit of concern for us, so we've still got plenty of work to do overnight to maintain a strong hold on the fires at hand," said Mr Goldsmith.
"Watch and act" alerts remain in place for a fire at Glenlusk near Collinsvale, and another near the Arthur Highway at Forcett, in the south east.
Residents in both areas are advised to prepare their bushfire plans.
Meanwhile, a bushfire on the Huon Highway at Geeveston has burnt up to five hectares and there is a warning for communities near Scotts Road.
But the biggest fire in the Central Highlands on Poatina Road, between Arthurs Lake and Great Lake, appears to have eased and authorities have cancelled their "watch and act" alert.
Incident controller Chris Arthur says it has been hard to contain.
"The fire has become really active," he said.
"The expected extreme weather which prompted the total fire ban has arrived, at the moment we've got 36 people working on the fire."
A "watch and act" alert is still current for shack owners at Cramp's Bay, who are being urged to activate their bushfire plans, and the TFS says the fire may affect Jonah Bay and surrounding areas tomorrow.
The blaze had threatened power lines but Transend now says the danger is over and it is unlikely there will be any power cuts.
A water-bombing helicopter has been used used to fight the Central Highlands blaze, which has so far burnt 1,000 hectares.
Poatina Highway has been closed.
A total fire ban is in place for southern Tasmania until midnight tonight.
Residents can keep up to date with the latest emergency warnings at the .

Mill fire
Fire damage estimated at $600,000 is expected to delay production at a northern Tasmanian sawmill.
The blaze at the Artec sawmill in Western Junction started after a fault in a conveyor belt.
The Fire Service says nearby equipment has been damaged, halting production.


- ABC

ABC 2012
Tweeted by PAGASA...

Tropical Cyclone Update: 29/NOV/12, There is NO tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility. However, all are advised to monitor updates especially a weather disturbance is seen approximately 1,040 km east border of PAR or 2,000 km east southeast of Mindanao.
Renmark swelters through record heat



Renmark had its hottest November day on record yesterday, as temperatures soared into the mid 40s across the region.

Renmark Airport recorded a maximum temperature of 45.3°C(113.5°F), just after 2:00pm ACDT.

Darren Ray from the Bureau of Meteorology says it was nearly the hottest place in South Australia.

"Moomba in the north of the state got up to 45.5°C(113.9°F), so Renmark was almost there but slightly pipped at the post," he said.

"That record [for Renmark] does go back to 1957, so it's a reasonably long record as well, so that's pretty significant.

"It beats the previous November record which was 44.6°C(112.3°F), which came in really warm November conditions in 2009."


- ABC

© ABC 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tweeted by PAGASA...

Tropical Cyclone Update: 29/NOV/12, There is NO tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility. However, all are advised to monitor updates especially a weather disturbance is seen approximately 1,040 km east border of PAR or 2,000 km east southeast of Mindanao.


I saw that, but they do mention Tropical Storm "BOPHA" on there page.



This is why no watches or warning. Not in PAGASA's Philippine Area of Responsibility or PAR.


Also noticed they are a day behind. it's 21:37 Friday 30/NOV/2012
Quoting nymore:
If you have not learned by now Neapolitan is always right. Even when proven wrong he will never admit it. Want to have some fun with him just ask him what his solution would be to help stop AGWT, he will never answer because he is a FRAUD. AGWT is just the vehicle he uses to grind the axe against high profit fossil fuel companies. It is just a means to an end for his agenda.

He'll never say sorry or admit he's wrong. He'll just throw insults.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is OVER!!!!

Quoting AussieStorm:

He'll never say sorry or admit he's wrong. He'll just throw insults.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is OVER!!!!



The problem seems to be that he has quite a few on his side.
Quoting beell:


One of ya'll (anyone?) check my math here as I am not the sharpest lightbulb in the drawer...

200 Gt/yr with an acceleration of ice loss of 8 Gt/yr (200 Gt the first year, 208-yr 2, 216-yr 3, etc) rounds out to about 40,240 Gt (or cubic kilometers if you prefer) through the year 2100.
360 cubic kilometers of ice to raise sea level 1 millimeter.

40,240/360 = 111mm of sea level rise or about 4" by 2100.

If I presume correct the math used to find a 111mm rise by 2100,

111mm=11.1cm
4"=10.2cm

Your math may be off a little, lol, but either scenario is far below Lewis Page's interpretation, as stated by Neo at comment 777:
"In his foolish denialist zeal, Page scanned that and came to the (wrong) conclusion that maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm (???), and followed that bit of chicanery with the laughably baseless comment that 'it will probably be less than that'. "

Frankly, my dears, maybe the Page character is correct.
~Bueller
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Quoting AussieStorm:

He'll never say sorry or admit he's wrong. He'll just throw insults.
+++++++++++++
The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is OVER!!!!The problem seems to be that he has quite a few on his side.


When he's discussing the facts of AGW, he's got science on his side.

I can't speak for him, but after 10+ years of trying to prove the sky is blue to people that view the discussion not through a scientific perspective, but one of either politics, religion or just plain fear, it can be frustrating.
Quoting FatPenguin:


When he's discussing the facts of AGW, he's got science on his side.

I can't speak for him, but after 10 years of trying to prove the sky is blue to people that view the discussion not through a scientific perspective, but one of either politics, religion or just plain fear, it can be frustrating.

But there is no need to insult people. No matter which side they are on.

As my mother always told me. Son, if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all.

I'll be back in the morning unless I am banned again for my comment in 811.

Take care all.
Goodnight
G-night Mate, see ya laters!
Quoting nymore:
If you have not learned by now Neapolitan is always right. Even when proven wrong he will never admit it. Want to have some fun with him just ask him what his solution would be to help stop AGWT, he will never answer because he is a FRAUD. AGWT is just the vehicle he uses to grind the axe against high profit fossil fuel companies. It is just a means to an end for his agenda.

Pointing out the obvious this early in the morning in just flat out wrong. Let me grab some coffee first.
nymore 1:40 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

Oh, by the way, mymore. You and I are the same person and incarnations of cat5 and clamshell.

LOL
817. yoboi
Quoting FatPenguin:


When he's discussing the facts of AGW, he's got science on his side.

I can't speak for him, but after 10+ years of trying to prove the sky is blue to people that view the discussion not through a scientific perspective, but one of either politics, religion or just plain fear, it can be frustrating.



lol
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Media Matters??!!

Bunch of left-wing haters.

LMAO!

@622 Doug, try this one then from Scientific American. I am disenheartened that "anti" science is now a non-hyphenated word.

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hence when people here comment back against him, they are soon banned from 1hr to 24hrs. I called him a smart a$$ and I got banned for 1hr also the comment was removed. When he very much was being one. The comment also contained some very nice thunderstorm photo's


How to be a good AGW alarmist.

1. Present your theory.

2. When evidence is presented against your theory, say its been debunked. If the opponent demands to see the study, call bullsh1t.

3. Give the sceptics a bad name, like "denialist"

4. Generalize the sceptics as conservitive, creationist, radical republicans who dont care about the Earth.

5. If a person presents hard evidence against AGW, say they are "uncredible" because they dont have a PHD. Or if they do have a PHD, call them an idiot.

6. Push all opposing scientists aside.

7. State your opinion like its fact.

8. If all else fails, preach about how much CO2 the average person produces and ask if we should just "ignore it" or if it will just "go away" (even though it does).
820. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hence when people here comment back against him, they are soon banned from 1hr to 24hrs. I called him a smart a$$ and I got banned for 1hr also the comment was removed. When he very much was being one. The comment also contained some very nice thunderstorm photo's




it all depends on who's shoes you polish....
821. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:
nymore 1:40 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

Oh, by the way, mymore. You and I are the same person and incarnations of cat5 and clamshell.

LOL


Surprised I am not as well, must not have annoyed him as much LOL

Anyways Tne North West seems to have a little interesting weather...

Quoting VR46L:


Surprised I am not as well, must not have annoyed him as much LOL

Anyways Tne North West seems to have a little interesting weather...


You're up next, don't worry. LOL.

West looking very messy. Haven't seen the HPC cranking out amounts that prolific in a long time. I could only imagine the snows on the Cascades!! My two girls and I are going out there in January for our ski trip. They of course need more practice on the bunny hills. ;)
823. MTWX
Just stopping in to make mention of this backwards weather!!!

Current temp's:

My hometown: Great Falls, MT 52
Current Location: Columbus, MS 35

Seems just a little backwards to me!

Both locations highs for the week are forecasted to be 20-30 degrees above average too!!

Great Falls: forecast highs from 50- 60, average: 37

Columbus: forecast highs 65-75, average: 59

That is all... Happy Blogging folks!
Morning everyone,

Welcome to the last day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I think I'm going to write up another seasonal review.
825. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You're up next, don't worry. LOL.

West looking very messy. Haven't seen the HPC cranking out amounts that prolific in a long time. I could only imagine the snows on the Cascades!! My two girls and I are going out there in January for our ski trip. They of course need more practice on the bunny hills. ;)



Aye, there seems to be some real snow amounts coming that way.

You seem to be really looking forward to your skiing vacation have a great time out there with your girls, Gal.
Climate scientists are still grappling with one of the main questions of modern times: how high will global temperatures rise if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide doubles. Many researchers are now turning to the past because it holds clues to how nature reacted to climate change before the anthropogenic impact. The divergent results of this research, however, have made it difficult to make precise predictions about the impact of increased carbon dioxide on future warming. An international team of scientists have evaluated previously published estimates and assigned them consistent categories and terminology. This process should assist in limiting the range of estimates and make it easier to compare data from past climate changes and projections about future warming.

Read more here Link
827. vanwx
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
If I presume correct the math used to find a 111mm rise by 2100,

111mm=11.1cm
4"=10.2cm

Your math may be off a little, lol, but either scenario is far below Lewis Page's interpretation, as stated by Neo at comment 777:
"In his foolish denialist zeal, Page scanned that and came to the (wrong) conclusion that maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm (???), and followed that bit of chicanery with the laughably baseless comment that 'it will probably be less than that'. "

Frankly, my dears, maybe the Page character is correct.
~Bueller


Gro said 1/10" per year. On a straight line that's +9" at next millenium. Also on a straight line is CO2 at 400ppm by 2020. However, straight line has not worked for the rate of arctic sea ice loss. I guess we'll know more at the end of next summer.
Texas Drought info, Outlook is Dry.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/11/29/4449125/t exas-braces-for-return-of-drought.html?utm_medium= referral&utm_source=t.co
829. vanwx
Quoting nymore:
If you have not learned by now Neapolitan is always right. Even when proven wrong he will never admit it. Want to have some fun with him just ask him what his solution would be to help stop AGWT, he will never answer because he is a FRAUD. AGWT is just the vehicle he uses to grind the axe against high profit fossil fuel companies. It is just a means to an end for his agenda.

Why do you think that you should be able to compel him to solve AGW when he's only pointing it out?
Quoting goosegirl1:
Climate scientists are still grappling with one of the main questions of modern times: how high will global temperatures rise if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide doubles. Many researchers are now turning to the past because it holds clues to how nature reacted to climate change before the anthropogenic impact. The divergent results of this research, however, have made it difficult to make precise predictions about the impact of increased carbon dioxide on future warming. An international team of scientists have evaluated previously published estimates and assigned them consistent categories and terminology. This process should assist in limiting the range of estimates and make it easier to compare data from past climate changes and projections about future warming.

Read more here Link


I don't see how such studies can be meaningful. On the time scales they deal with, Milankovitch cycles come into play. Makes everything horribly complicated.

Quoting yonzabam:


I don't see how such studies can be meaningful. On the time scales they deal with, Milankovitch cycles come into play. Makes everything horribly complicated.




I think that's one reason they are trying to standardize how the data are presented. We see it all the time here- one shining example is the discussion concerning "how much sea rise" we see here this morning.
Quoting VR46L:



Aye, there seems to be some real snow amounts coming that way.

You seem to be really looking forward to your skiing vacation have a great time out there with your girls, Gal.


Thanks!
Quoting FunnelVortex:


How to be a good AGW alarmist.

1. Present your theory.

2. When evidence is presented against your theory, say its been debunked. If the opponent demands to see the study, call bullsh1t.

3. Give the sceptics a bad name, like "denialist"

4. Generalize the sceptics as conservitive, creationist, radical republicans who dont care about the Earth.

5. If a person presents hard evidence against AGW, say they are "uncredible" because they dont have a PHD. Or if they do have a PHD, call them an idiot.

6. Push all opposing scientists aside.

7. State your opinion like its fact.

8. If all else fails, preach about how much CO2 the average person produces and ask if we should just "ignore it" or if it will just "go away" (even though it does).



I would love to see all this "hard evidence" against AGW. Mind, it has to dovetail with the other observable features of our planet (say, solar cycles, ocean heat content, ocean pH, carbon isotopic ratios, global isostatic curves) and the laws of thermodynamics. It'd be awesome if AGW wasn't real, and that there is no real threat to our society as we know it. Not really where all of the datasets are pointing, but if you have others that correlate with the data that does point to AGW but proves it doesn't exist, I'm all ears.


(Hopefully it's something more than opinion stated as fact)
And to add to the theme of the morning:

What had been a blurry picture about polar ice — especially how it impacts sea levels — just got a whole lot clearer as experts on Thursday published a peer-reviewed study they say puts to rest the debate over whether the poles added to, or subtracted from, sea level rise over the last two decades.

"This improved certainty allows us to say definitively that both Antarctica and Greenland have been losing ice," lead author Andrew Shepherd of the University of Leeds in Britain, told reporters. Not only that, but the pace has tripled from the 1990s, the data indicate.


Read more here Link
thing is, the 11.1 cm the poster calculated from an original 200Gt/yr of loss is just from greenland, IIRC.

whereas the Page bit nea was complaining about was saying that total sea level rise would be 30cm, 'likely less', by 2100. that includes greenland, east and west antarctic, glaciers, thermal expansion, the whole nine yards.

you have to remember that some people are talking about one part and some people are talking about the whole here.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
If I presume correct the math used to find a 111mm rise by 2100,

111mm=11.1cm
4"=10.2cm

Your math may be off a little, lol, but either scenario is far below Lewis Page's interpretation, as stated by Neo at comment 777:
"In his foolish denialist zeal, Page scanned that and came to the (wrong) conclusion that maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm (???), and followed that bit of chicanery with the laughably baseless comment that 'it will probably be less than that'. "

Frankly, my dears, maybe the Page character is correct.
~Bueller
Quoting schistkicker:



I would love to see all this "hard evidence" against AGW. Mind, it has to dovetail with the other observable features of our planet (say, solar cycles, ocean heat content, ocean pH, carbon isotopic ratios, global isostatic curves) and the laws of thermodynamics. It'd be awesome if AGW wasn't real, and that there is no real threat to our society as we know it. Not really where all of the datasets are pointing, but if you have others that correlate with the data that does point to AGW but proves it doesn't exist, I'm all ears.


(Hopefully it's something more than opinion stated as fact)


I would love to be convinced that it's all a conspiracy, but so far no one has stepped up and provided the needed hard evidence. In the case of AGW? Believe me, I would love to say "You are right" and be really convinced of it.
still waiting on the data that shows no real warming over the last 100 years.

anybody who has a link to it and is deathly afraid of getting banned (LOL) can WUmail it to me, and i'll post it.
838. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Thanks!


Your Welcome!!!


Anyways Is this future Valerie on the way ...I know the season is over but there is Model support

East Atlantic in Rainbow

839. vanwx
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Texas Drought info, Outlook is Dry.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/11/29/4449125/t exas-braces-for-return-of-drought.html?utm_medium= referral&utm_source=t.co


That might be the weather story of the year. It doesn't have the pizazz of hurricanes and tornadoes, lightning, flooding and 3' of snow but is it ever grim. 1940, 1956 and now are the most recent Mississippi dry ups. They can't get the grain to port, what grain there is. Houston used to be the second biggest rice port in the world. I wonder if the California gale will let them get their rice crop in?
Up here in snow country the rain is melting the snow, that snow is our summer water but I sure it will get better. We had a good year last year but the late fish had to hitch hike up the rivers in the fall(I mean it was dry and too hot for them).
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You're up next, don't worry. LOL.

West looking very messy. Haven't seen the HPC cranking out amounts that prolific in a long time. I could only imagine the snows on the Cascades!! My two girls and I are going out there in January for our ski trip. They of course need more practice on the bunny hills. ;)


You all will have a blast out there. I lived in Oregon for a few years and some of the best skiing I've ever done was on Mt. Hood. Willamette Pass is fun as well and has a lot of nice greens for practice too. When I was there one year we were skiing into June and Timberline was open until almost August. The base was like a few hundred inches. Good stuff.
841. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:



I would love to see all this "hard evidence" against AGW. Mind, it has to dovetail with the other observable features of our planet (say, solar cycles, ocean heat content, ocean pH, carbon isotopic ratios, global isostatic curves) and the laws of thermodynamics. It'd be awesome if AGW wasn't real, and that there is no real threat to our society as we know it. Not really where all of the datasets are pointing, but if you have others that correlate with the data that does point to AGW but proves it doesn't exist, I'm all ears.


(Hopefully it's something more than opinion stated as fact)



it's over hype...
Quoting FunnelVortex:


How to be a good AGW alarmist.

1. Present your theory.

2. When evidence is presented against your theory, say its been debunked. If the opponent demands to see the study, call bullsh1t.

3. Give the sceptics a bad name, like "denialist"

4. Generalize the sceptics as conservitive, creationist, radical republicans who dont care about the Earth.

5. If a person presents hard evidence against AGW, say they are "uncredible" because they dont have a PHD. Or if they do have a PHD, call them an idiot.

6. Push all opposing scientists aside.

7. State your opinion like its fact.

8. If all else fails, preach about how much CO2 the average person produces and ask if we should just "ignore it" or if it will just "go away" (even though it does).



Be honest now- there is guilt on both sides here. All of us have to foster honest, science-backed intelligent discussion without the names and jokes thrown in. If all we do is discredit each other and exchange insults, then we are acting like a room full of first graders when the teacher steps out.
843. yoboi
Quoting goosegirl1:



Be honest now- there is guilt on both sides here. All of us have to foster honest, science-backed intelligent discussion without the names and jokes thrown in. If all we do is discredit each other and exchange insults, then we are acting like a room full of first graders when the teacher steps out.



well the teacher is always watching and if your johnny that does not bring an apple you get treated differ.....
Quoting FunnelVortex:


How to be a good AGW alarmist.

1. Present your theory.

2. When evidence is presented against your theory, say its been debunked. If the opponent demands to see the study, call bullsh1t.

3. Give the sceptics a bad name, like "denialist"

4. Generalize the sceptics as conservitive, creationist, radical republicans who dont care about the Earth.

5. If a person presents hard evidence against AGW, say they are "uncredible" because they dont have a PHD. Or if they do have a PHD, call them an idiot.

6. Push all opposing scientists aside.

7. State your opinion like its fact.

8. If all else fails, preach about how much CO2 the average person produces and ask if we should just "ignore it" or if it will just "go away" (even though it does).
You left out:

Demand that the skeptical viewpoints be peer-reviewed when the East Anglia email dump showed a coordinated effort to deny peer review to skeptical papers.
Quoting calkevin77:


You all will have a blast out there. I lived in Oregon for a few years and some of the best skiing I've ever done was on Mt. Hood. Willamette Pass is fun as well and has a lot of nice greens for practice too. When I was there one year we were skiing into June and Timberline was open until almost August. The base was like a few hundred inches. Good stuff.


That's so cool to here. Makes it even more anticipating. I've been to Colorado in Aspen once about a decade ago in college and it rocked. I was told many of good things about the Pac northwest though and how the season is longer. Thought I'd try it out. Glad to know to that it looks like now I probably won't be complaining about a lack of snow. HOpefully!!
Quoting FunnelVortex:


How to be a good AGW alarmist.

1. Present your theory.

2. When evidence is presented against your theory, say its been debunked. If the opponent demands to see the study, call bullsh1t.

3. Give the sceptics a bad name, like "denialist"

4. Generalize the sceptics as conservitive, creationist, radical republicans who dont care about the Earth.

5. If a person presents hard evidence against AGW, say they are "uncredible" because they dont have a PHD. Or if they do have a PHD, call them an idiot.

6. Push all opposing scientists aside.

7. State your opinion like its fact.

8. If all else fails, preach about how much CO2 the average person produces and ask if we should just "ignore it" or if it will just "go away" (even though it does).
Oh, yeah, and a few others:

Downplay past natural climate variability, such as the Hockey Stick pretending that the Medieval Warm Period never really happened.

Pretend that the revelations from the East Anglia email dump were a non-scandal.

Claim that all skeptics are in the pay of fossil fuel corporations.
Quoting goosegirl1:



Be honest now- there is guilt on both sides here. All of us have to foster honest, science-backed intelligent discussion without the names and jokes thrown in. If all we do is discredit each other and exchange insults, then we are acting like a room full of first graders when the teacher steps out.
Complete with spitballs..
"If all else fails, preach about how much CO2 the average person produces and ask if we should just "ignore it" or if it will just "go away" (even though it does)."

We are talking about hundreds of years, thousands of years and hundreds of thousands of years. It does NOT go away in any time span that makes me happy.

From Multiple timescales for neutralization of fossil fuel CO2:

"The long term abiological sinks for anthropogenic CO2 will be dissolution in the oceans and chemical neutralization by reaction with carbonates and basic igneous rocks. We use a detailed ocean/sediment carbon cycle model to simulate the response of the carbonate cycle in the ocean to a range of anthropogenic CO2 release scenarios. CaCO3 will play only a secondary role in buffering the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere because CaCO3 reaction uptake capacity and kinetics are limited by the dynamics of the ocean carbon cycle. Dissolution into ocean water sequesters 70-80% of the CO2 release on a time scale of several hundred years. Chemical neutralization of CO2 by reaction with CaCO3 on the sea floor accounts for another 9-15% decrease in the atmospheric concentration on a time scale of 5.5-6.8 kyr. Reaction with CaCO3 on land accounts for another 3-8%, with a time scale of 8.2 kyr. The final equilibrium with CaCO3 leaves 7.5-8% of the CO2 release remaining in the atmosphere. The carbonate chemistry of the oceans in contact with CaCO3 will act to buffer atmospheric CO2 at this higher concentration until the entire fossil fuel CO2 release is consumed by weathering of basic igneous rocks on a time scale of 200 kyr."
I was thinking of something...

The AC, your fridge, your freezer, your television, your whole slew of electronic gadgets, your computer(s), to name a few, are all thanks to scientific innovations. I can guarantee that every single person uses at least a couple of these. Yet, you still have people discrediting the overwhelming majority of climate scientists who are warning us of potentially catastrophic Athropogenic Climate Change.

Scientists who should have the utmost respect by now by allowing society to flourish the way it has.

I simply cannot get over this.
Multiple timescales for neutralization of fossil fuel CO2

An interesting address for one of the authors of that study.

EXXON RES & ENGN CO, ANNANDALE, NJ 08801 USA
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Oh, yeah, and a few others:

Downplay past natural climate variability, such as the Hockey Stick pretending that the Medieval Warm Period never really happened.

Pretend that the revelations from the East Anglia email dump were a non-scandal.

Claim that all skeptics are in the pay of fossil fuel corporations.


See, this is why people get angry. Three statements, and every one of them a fabrication. They just go on like this incessantly, and there's no let up from them, no matter how many times their false claims are refuted.

Most 'hockey stick' graphs I've seen, and there are many by different research groups, show the Medieval Wam Period clearly.

The UEA Climate Research Group was completely exonerated by an independent panel of scientists from outside the field of climatology.

No one claims that all sceptics are in the pay of the fossil fuel industry.

But they'll be back tomorrow with the same nonsense.
I was at Timberline the first week of Sept and watched many snowboarders coming down off the slopes at the end of the day! Hoping for a snowy winter in S. WI :)

Quoting calkevin77:


You all will have a blast out there. I lived in Oregon for a few years and some of the best skiing I've ever done was on Mt. Hood. Willamette Pass is fun as well and has a lot of nice greens for practice too. When I was there one year we were skiing into June and Timberline was open until almost August. The base was like a few hundred inches. Good stuff.
Quoting yoboi:



it's over hype...


Help me with the over hype on ocean ph...

A preschooler can take a piece of litmus paper check the ph on on a glass of ice water then blow some CO2 through a straw a while & then check it again & see it get more acid. You can do this in a way more controlled way with a tank of CO2 & even compare how colder water will hold more CO2 & turn more acidic compared to warmer water when all other conditions are the same.

What NOAA presented to Congress in 2009 was disturbing enough. Snail shells are already being dissolved at much higher rates than predicted near the poles. Acidity in oceans is already a Bad trip for Washington's economy..

And now like the Arctic sea ice models it's apparent we didn't predict it fast enough..

ABSTRACT Nearshore waters of the California Current System (California CS) already today have a low carbonate saturation state, making them particularly susceptible to ocean acidification. Here, we use eddy-resolving model simulations to study the potential development of ocean acidification in this system up to 2050 under the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios. In both scenarios, the saturation state of aragonite %u03A9arag is projected to drop rapidly, with much of the nearshore regions developing summer-long undersaturation in the top 60 m within the next 30 years. By the year 2050, waters with %u03A9arag above 1.5 have largely disappeared and more than half of the waters are undersaturated year-round. Habitats along the seafloor become exposed to year-round undersaturation within the next 20 to 30 years. This has potentially major implications for the rich and diverse ecosystem that characterizes the California CS.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2012-06-ocean-ph-falling-rapi dly.html#jCp


A H & O3 morning tune..named Corona.
Bopha

Quoting yonzabam:


See, this is why people get angry. Three statements, and every one of them a fabrication. They just go on like this incessantly, and there's no let up from them, no matter how many times their false claims are refuted.

Most 'hockey stick' graphs I've seen, and there are many by different research groups, show the Medieval Wam Period clearly.

The UEA Climate Research Group was completely exonerated by an independent panel of scientists from outside the field of climatology.

No one claims that all sceptics are in the pay of the fossil fuel industry.

But they'll be back tomorrow with the same nonsense.


The especially silly thing is that ClimateGate doesn't even address the actual data-- the only thing the batch of out-of-context statements from the emails does is impugn some scientists and demonstrate that they're not always gentle and nice; in fact, some of them have enormous egos. That's completely irrelevant to whether or not the globe is warming due to anthropogenic carbon emissions. If photos surfaced tomorrow that prove that Phil Jones propositions nuns and kicks puppies, that doesn't touch the actual data. Even if Al Gore is insufferable, it doesn't touch the data.

As far as the Medieval Warming Period goes, it doesn't help, since temperature records and proxies demonstrate that it was a regional, not global, warming event.
Quoting AussieStorm:

He'll never say sorry or admit he's wrong. He'll just throw insults.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is OVER!!!!



yeah, well nobody's proved him wrong yet, either.
857. yoboi
Quoting plutorising:


yeah, well nobody's proved him wrong yet, either.



kind of hard to when he dodges a debate...
Quoting Skyepony:


Help me with the over hype on ocean ph...

That's just one of the ways the CO2 "goes away" ... by damaging marine ecosystems.

Think of your liver processing excessive amounts of alcohol. The alcohol goes away at the expense of your health.

That's the fast part of the CO2 "going away".

"Dissolution into ocean water sequesters 70-80% of the CO2 release on a time scale of several hundred years. Chemical neutralization of CO2 by reaction with CaCO3 on the sea floor accounts for another 9-15% decrease in the atmospheric concentration on a time scale of 5.5-6.8 kyr."
859. beell
Quoting schwankmoe:
thing is, the 11.1 cm the poster calculated from an original 200Gt/yr of loss is just from greenland, IIRC.

whereas the Page bit nea was complaining about was saying that total sea level rise would be 30cm, 'likely less', by 2100. that includes greenland, east and west antarctic, glaciers, thermal expansion, the whole nine yards.

you have to remember that some people are talking about one part and some people are talking about the whole here.



I was talking about Greenland and sea level rise. And it is on this subject that I would expect a response.

But thank you for the whole nine yards.
860. yoboi
Quoting Skyepony:


Help me with the over hype on ocean ph...

A preschooler can take a piece of litmus paper check the ph on on a glass of ice water then blow some CO2 through a straw a while & then check it again & see it get more acid. You can do this in a way more controlled way with a tank of CO2 & even compare how colder water will hold more CO2 & turn more acidic compared to warmer water when all other conditions are the same.

What NOAA presented to Congress in 2009 was disturbing enough. Snail shells are already being dissolved at much higher rates than predicted near the poles. Acidity in oceans is already a Bad trip for Washington's economy..

And now like the Arctic sea ice models it's apparent we didn't predict it fast enough..

ABSTRACT Nearshore waters of the California Current System (California CS) already today have a low carbonate saturation state, making them particularly susceptible to ocean acidification. Here, we use eddy-resolving model simulations to study the potential development of ocean acidification in this system up to 2050 under the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios. In both scenarios, the saturation state of aragonite %u03A9arag is projected to drop rapidly, with much of the nearshore regions developing summer-long undersaturation in the top 60 m within the next 30 years. By the year 2050, waters with %u03A9arag above 1.5 have largely disappeared and more than half of the waters are undersaturated year-round. Habitats along the seafloor become exposed to year-round undersaturation within the next 20 to 30 years. This has potentially major implications for the rich and diverse ecosystem that characterizes the California CS.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2012-06-ocean-ph-falling-rapi dly.html#jCp


A H & O3 morning tune..named Corona.


upwelling of water due to increase of storms...happens in an active cycle.. i can agree with that...
Noting:-853. Skyepony. Quoting a line:-
"Snail shells are already being dissolved at much higher rates than predicted near the poles. Acidity in oceans is already a Bad trip for Washington's economy.."
With the increased amount of CO" in the atmosphere, along with increased atmospheric temps the additional rainfall caused by the ability of the atmosphere to hold more water will eventually inevitable result in more acidic rain.
As most of the acidic rain will either acidify the land or seas which it falls on, the the result must be a more acidic world.
It is from an academic point of view not too important whether its the snails in the sea or the ground which their cousins slither on that is on the receiving end of all this, the academic conclusion must be that there is a problem with the basic ecosystem and that CO2 is causing it. I'm sure that as it becomes known that the acid rain is eating the concrete of buildings, then the general background society will probably take a lot more notice of it but by then as probably in fact now it will be too late.
Falcons beat the Saints yesterday, really was some great tailgaiting weather.

Now on to the SEC Championship

Looks like great weather in the Atlanta Area:


GO DAWGS!
What about the graph in post 782?
Quoting PlazaRed:

SO2 is a much more important cause of acid rain.

Edit: and NOx's. Wikiwonderland:

"Acid rain is caused by emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, which react with the water molecules in the atmosphere to produce acids. Governments have made efforts since the 1970s to reduce the release of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere with positive results. Nitrogen oxides can also be produced naturally by lightning strikes and sulfur dioxide is produced by volcanic eruptions. The chemicals in acid rain can cause paint to peel, corrosion of steel structures such as bridges, and erosion of stone statues."
Quoting lilElla:
I was at Timberline the first week of Sept and watched many snowboarders coming down off the slopes at the end of the day! Hoping for a snowy winter in S. WI :)



Right on. Yeah hopefully you guys will get some snow this winter out there in WI. My mom grew up in Milwaukee/Waukesha area so I always loved the times around the holidays visiting the grandparents and all the snow. We're back up into the low 80s this weekend here in Austin. No snowmen to be built here :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting schistkicker:


... the only thing the batch of out-of-context statements from the emails does is impugn some scientists and demonstrate that they're not always gentle and nice; in fact, some of them have enormous egos. That's completely irrelevant to whether or not the globe is warming due to anthropogenic carbon emissions. ....

I agree, though it does give the propagandists a way to divert attention from the real, long-term problems we face. Something some of our bloggers should consider.
Quoting bappit:

SO2 is a much more important cause of acid rain.

Sort of related to your comment.
Where I work we collect the rainwater from the roofs of the buildings as there is no mains water supply, as in fact there isnt in many parts of the world.
Over the last 2 years I have noted that the collected water from the tanks causes quite a lot of lime scale. We collect about 50,000liters/12,000 gallons per year.
As the rainwater is just H2O water then where does the limescale come from?
The roofs of the building which collect the water are made from ceramic tiles and cement of good quality at a bout 4 to 1 mix, so its very hard, its not washing away.
My theory is that the rainwater is dissolving the cement and transporting it in liquid solution form to the holding tanks.
All pipes are made from seamless extruded plastic and we do not add anything to the water, either chemical or otherwise.
I remember form collage a long time ago that rainwater is sometimes called " carbonic acid" which is water with CO2 dissolved in it and the only conclusion I from a layman's/builders point of view can make is that the carbonic acid is eating the cement and concrete.
Really? Is that all it would take? Someone telling you politely what the science shows us before you are willing to accept the science? ... Everyone here that denies the science now, but would accept the science if it was presented politely, just say the single word "YES!", in the next post you make here.

I will be the first to admit that Neapolitan can be a bit abrasive in his delivery of the science. The science is sound and many choose to attack the messenger instead of the message that the science brings us. That is fair in a popularity contest, but the science is not based on how popular it will be received.

There are those that will claim that they present their "evidence" and then bemoan the fact that the "evidence" has already been "debunked" many times and by more than just a few that actually know the science behind the discussion. This only becomes a frustration to both sides of the science and abrasive conversations will ensue from there. ... Such is human nature.

Let us end the haggling back and forth between us. Those that are skeptics of the science should present the science that calls into question the theory being discussed. There must be a scientific reason for the skepticism or it only becomes a denial based argument. Those that deny the science need to disprove the science behind the scientific theory. I would be the first to rejoice that the AGWT has been proven to be an invalid scientific theory!

Here is where the denial industry must concentrate its efforts to have their "evidence" validated by the scientific community:

1. Show how the AGWT violates The Laws of Physics.

Should you not be able to accomplish this, then ...

2. Show how the AGWT violates The Laws of Thermodynamics.

Should you not be able to accomplish this, then ...

3. Show how the AGWT violates The Laws of Chemistry.

Should you not be able to accomplish this, then ...

4. Show how CO2 does not behave as a greenhouse gas in our atmosphere.

Should you not be able to accomplish this, then ...

5. Show how anthropogenic CO2 emissions' chemical properties prevents these CO2 emissions from behaving as a greenhouse gas in our atmosphere.

Should you not be able to accomplish this, then ...

6. Show how mankind's activities are not emitting tons/day of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Should you not be able to accomplish this, then ...

7. Show how mankind's activities have not destroyed a meaningful portion of the natural carbon sinks. Meaningful in the sense that the natural carbon sinks cannot sequester the carbon we emit at a rate that would compensate for the CO2 we emit.

Only one of these tests needs to be satisfied to show that our actions are not adding any degree of significance to the current climate warming trends we are witnessing today. Unless you can accomplish at least one of these tests, then you are simply in denial for reasons well beyond the scientific reasons. You may satisfy your egos this way, but it does not satisfy the science behind the AGWT.

This post may sound abrasive to a few, but how many times does it need to be said that the stove is hot before you quit trying to touch the stove? After a while, the conversation just becomes frustrating to all involved.

Disprove the AGWT or quit complaining that you cannot and taking it out on the others that do understand the science behind it. Really, it is that simple. Disprove the theory, develop a better theory or quit complaining that the theory itself best explains the warming trends we are witnessing.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What about the graph in post 782?

...The graphic in post 782 is not particularly relevant to the current discussion because is comparing two different physical quantities on incorrect timescales.

The hidden claim made by posting that graph is that monthly temperature anomalies should respond in a linear way to linear changes to climate forcings, and those changes will both occur and be noticeable on monthly timestep data. The second hidden claim is that because the first claim does not appear to be occurring (through visual "eye-balling"), the conclusion should be that CO2 is not changing climate. Climate does not behave this way. At all. If you know anything about climate, you would know this.

To do a proper comparison for relevant discussion, the temperature anomaly data should - at a minimum - be averaged over 5yr or 10yr time periods, and put into a bar graph. The same could be done with the CO2 data but it would not be expected. Also required would be information about the source of the temperature data so that proper caveats could be taken knowing the uncertainties and assumptions of that particular data set.

Replace the graph with a proper one and we'll discuss.
Hope some of that moisture out west can make it into the Missouri basin and fill the resevoirs enough the Corps can release some of it. Otherwise, according to article in Post Dispatch today, barge traffic on Mississippi below StL to Cairo will be shutting down.

Currently the level at StL is -1 ft, expected to drop 4 ft in next two weeks, which will be at minimum level for barge traffic, they need 9 feet. Zero was set at a 14 ft level at Eads Bridge in 1863. Record low was -6.1 ft in Jan. of 1940. NWS expecting will hit that level later unless substantial rain north of StL occurs. It's not forecasted in that time frame.
Quoting VR46L:


Your Welcome!!!


Anyways Is this future Valerie on the way ...I know the season is over but there is Model support

East Atlantic in Rainbow

The season is over 12/1 because we never had a system after that date. Maybe this is a change that will be taking place due to climate change. Blub blub here in the Fl. Keys. I have never seen the water so high in the streets as the last full moon provided. I was wondering if it is because of the planets aligning getting closer to 12/21 or because the wind was blowing out of the north.
Quoting kwgirl:
The season is over 12/1 because we never had a system after that date. Maybe this is a change that will be taking place due to climate change. Blub blub here in the Fl. Keys. I have never seen the water so high in the streets as the last full moon provided. I was wondering if it is because of the planets aligning getting closer to 12/21 or because the wind was blowing out of the north.


Actually, there have been a couple of storms that have formed after the official end of the hurricane season. Most notably would be the 2005 season, when Hurricane Epsilon formed on November 29, and Tropical Storm Zeta which formed on December 29.