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Damaging Katrina-level storm surges are twice as likely in warm years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2012

Perhaps the most stunning images in the wake of Hurricane Sandy were the sight of the roller coaster from the Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey lying in the Atlantic Ocean. The images reminded us that hurricane storm surges are capable of causing tremendous destruction along the coast, and one of the main concerns on how global warming might affect hurricanes is the potential for stronger hurricanes to create larger storm surges. We expect that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and converts it to wind energy. These stronger winds will be capable of piling up higher storm surges. However, it is controversial whether or not we have observed an increase in the strongest hurricanes, since hurricane winds are hard to observe. Our long-term hurricane data base is generally too low in quality and covers too short a period of time to make very good estimates of how climate change may be affecting hurricane winds. However, a new 2012 paper, "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923" by Grinsted et al., looked at storm surge data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey, and concluded that the number of moderately large hurricane and tropical storm surge events has increased since 1923. Moderately large storm surge events are on pace to nearly double by the year 2100, compared to 20th century levels. Moreover, 1-in-9 year to 1-in-30 year Katrina-level storm surge events are twice as likely to occur in warm years compared to cool years, and thus global warming may be able to dramatically increase the frequency of highly damaging extreme storm surge events. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Expect to see many more shocking storm surge damage photos in the coming decades, unless we wise up, retreat from areas highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in increased shoreline protection measures.


Figure 1. The Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. taken during a search and rescue mission by 1-150 Assault Helicopter Battalion, New Jersey Army National Guard on Oct. 30, 2012. Image credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen.


Figure 2. Top: Observed long-term frequency of moderately large storm surge events from hurricanes and tropical storms measured at six tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast (inset map). The thick line is a 5-year moving average. These type of surge events occurred an average of 5.4 times/year between 1923 - 2008, and are on pace to increase to 9.5 events per year by 2100. Bottom: Departure of Earth's annual mean surface temperature from average, shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Large storm surge events increase in probability during warmer than average years. Image credit: Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."

Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." Grinsted et al. (2012) suggest that it may be possible to use their storm surge data to correct biased hurricane damage estimates, though. Take home message: studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger hurricanes are indeed occurring.

References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.

Links
In this remarkable home video, 15-year-old Christofer Sochacki captures the evening high tide on the day Superstorm Sandy struck Union Beach, New Jersey. The later part of the video shows how high waves on top of a 8-foot storm surge can lead to a punishing assault on beach-front structures.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting pottery:

There's always Brimstone....
we haven't had that one, yet.....
My visions have been along those lines, and I am a good hearted, positive thinking person...So i,m told..
Quoting RitaEvac:


Nah, gonna ride this one out

Yeah, me too.
Bring it on, I say! And may the Devil take the Hindmost.
Patrap is, maybe getting his preps on Doomsday Preppers show. Why he hasn't been on the blog I'm guessing.

;)
Quoting hydrus:
My visions have have been along those lines, and I am a good hearted, positive thinking person...So i,m told..

Hmmmm...
I never reviewed those remarks. Who made them? Can They be trusted???

:):))
Quoting RitaEvac:
Patrap is, maybe getting his preps on Doomsday Preppers show. Why he hasn't been on the blog I'm guessing.

;)
He had surgery I believe.
UN: methane released from melting ice could push climate past tipping point

Doha conference is warned that climate models do not yet take account of methane in thawing permafrost

Fiona Harvey, environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 27 November 2012 19.02 GMT

The United Nations sounded a stark warning on the threat to the climate from methane in the thawing permafrost as governments met for the second day of climate change negotiations in Doha, Qatar.

Thawing permafrost releases methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, but this has not yet been included in models of the future climate. Permafrost covers nearly a quarter of the northern hemisphere at present and is estimated to contain 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon -- twice the amount currently in the atmosphere. As it thaws, it could push global warming past one of the key "tipping points" that scientists believe could lead to runaway climate change.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/27 /doha-climate-conference-un-methane
Quoting pottery:

Hmmmm...
I never reviewed those remarks. Who made them? Can They be trusted???

:):))
It is an established fact. Ask the tree..:)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Patrap is, maybe getting his preps on Doomsday Preppers show. Why he hasn't been on the blog I'm guessing.

;)

I heard he was filling the bayou behind his house with gasoline.
Plans on making a couple bucks when the refineries go down.

(I'm kidding here, of course)
Quoting hydrus:
It is an established fact. Ask the tree..:)


heheheheheh
Fiscal Cliff: 12-21-12 from nature

Fiscal Cliff: 1-1-13 from man





Pick your poison.
Quoting pottery:

I heard he was filling the bayou behind his house with gasoline.
Plans on making a couple bucks when the refineries go down.
Hope he doesnt smoke. :)
I just caught a little red rat snake in a customers yard.
Quoting pottery:

I heard he was filling the bayou behind his house with gasoline.
Plans on making a couple bucks when the refineries go down.


Not good, when fire rains down from the heavens that's gonna be a big fire....Ka Boom!!
Bopha is getting ready to have an eye soon.Very nice CDO.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

So are we now only using data sets that are conveniently tailored to our liking?



No. It's called using datasets that are relevant and comparable. If datasets are on different baselines they are not comparable. It's not a matter of "tailoring to our liking" or whatever other scare-words one comes up with, it's a matter of being accurate, correct, & honest.

If you still are having confusion over this topic, please read my post above that summarizes the many differences between temperature data sets. It is important to know the differences between them if you want to talk about them.
Quoting hydrus:
Hope he doesnt smoke. :)

Well if he does, you'll see the flash from your place. I'll probably see it from here too.
Quoting pottery:

True!
Wont be long now.
Are you Prepared ?


I have lived through the end of the world a few times now..bring it on!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I just caught a little red rat snake in a customers yard.

Bad Omen......

You need to eat it right away to neutralise the Powers.
Quoting auburn:


I have lived through the end of the world a few times now..bring it on!

And we can see from your avatar that you are indeed well prepared.

How is Life, Auburn ?
Good afternoon. It's been snowing most of the day up here but temperatures have been slightly above freezing so we just have a light coating on the grass.
No one is discussing the Arkstorm heading to all west coast starting today???
Lovely weather here today at 11n 61w.

Scattered cloud, occasional showers.
Max temp a relatively low 90F (down from 95 a couple weeks ago).
Gentle breezes.
Nice.

Back to work......
Quoting pottery:

Hmmmm...
I never reviewed those remarks. Who made them? Can They be trusted???

:):))


If they are not peer reviewed..... just sayin'
Quoting pottery:

Bad Omen......

You need to eat it right away to neutralise the Powers.





Thanks!



I needed a good laugh!
Quoting indianrivguy:


If they are not pear reviewed..... just sayin'




Pear reviewed?
Quoting indianrivguy:


If they are not pear reviewed..... just sayin'


Maybe pears are out of season where he is.....


heheheheh

Laters>>>>>>>>>
Quoting Luisport:
No one is discussing the Arkstorm heading to all west coast starting today???
???
I saw it too late... arrrgggg

take care Pottery!

so Dougie.. hows corn snake taste?
Quoting pottery:

And we can see from your avatar that you are indeed well prepared.

How is Life, Auburn ?


as always..its great!hope your the same!
Quoting auburn:


as always..its great!hope your the same!


great would have been a victory over lil nicky satan
Quoting Luisport:
???
RyanMaueRyan Maue 2 h
GFS 12z showed 5-day rain totals for N. California from San Fran north 6-12'' (+ at elevation, all liquid). Amazing. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273489878375862 273/photo/1
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I don't think you understood what I wrote.

You implied that more WV automatically means more clouds, enough to offset the GH effect of the increased water vapor. Current research indicates that this is not so. Certain conditions need to be present for cloud formation. If WV increases but the cloud coverage doesn't increase enough to offset it, then you end up with a positive feedback, which is what is projected to happen.

For evidence that increased water vapor doesn't mean more cloud cover, take a look at some of the Middle East coutnries that border the ocean. High heat. High humidity. Few clouds.

Also, clouds are tropospheric phenomena mainly, which means there is still some warming as a result of increased WV. Greenhouse gases work by absorbing and re-radiating IR radiation in all directions. While clouds do act to increase albedo, they aren't perfect reflectors. Not all of that reflected energy will make it out of the troposphere.

And no, it would take a lot more than just water vapor to make the Earth reach a runaway GH effect. Our planet's orbit and short rotational period pretty much guarantee that the Earth won't become like Venus anytime soon. It would have happened already if it were possible (for example, the temperatures were significantly higher during the Jurassic period, and there was still no runaway GH).


So, if the water vapour feedback doesn't result in a runaway greenhouse effect, what stops it happening? More heat, more water vapour. More water vapour, more heat.

I know that different greenhouse gases trap outgoing infrared at different wavelengths, and that the efficiency of this heat trapping process diminishes the more of the greenhouse gas is added, until a saturation point is reached where adding more of a greenhouse gas does not result in additional warming.

In the past, some argued that this saturation point had virtually been reached for the two infrared wavelength regions that CO2 traps, so that the addition of more CO2 would have no effect.

But, water vapour reradiates outgoing infrared at such a broad range of wavelengths, that it's difficult to imagine any saturation point being reached, although it will become progressively less efficient as a heat trapping gas.

Bit confused, here. If increasing cloud cover is not the mechanism that counteracts the increasing warming effect of increased water vapour, what is?
Quoting Luisport:
RyanMaueRyan Maue 2 h
GFS 12z showed 5-day rain totals for N. California from San Fran north 6-12'' (+ at elevation, all liquid). Amazing. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273489878375862 273/photo/1
No one is interested?
Quoting Luisport:
No one is discussing the Arkstorm heading to all west coast starting today???


The ARKstorm is a hypothetical storm that occurs when the pinapple express slows down causing lows to pile up at the coast.

If it was going to happen, trust me, this blog would be full of it.
Edit: Nevermind..
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The ARKstorm is a hypothetical storm that occurs when the pinapple express slows down causing lows to pile up at the coast.

If it was going to happen, trust me, this blog would be full of it.
This is allready starting, or you don't see the oficial warnings of california authorities???
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

Wind advisories and flood watches in effect for northern California as storm approaches: http://wxug.us/ug8f

23 hWeather Underground‏@wunderground

Take a look at this 5-day precip forecast valid Mon AM - Sat AM. 7-8 inches possible in Northern California. http://1.usa.gov/XsUd
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Bopha is getting ready to have an eye soon.Very nice CDO.


I doubt it. The cloud pattern is still rough looking.
Quoting Luisport:
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

Wind advisories and flood watches in effect for northern California as storm approaches: http://wxug.us/ug8f

23 hWeather Underground‏@wunderground

Take a look at this 5-day precip forecast valid Mon AM - Sat AM. 7-8 inches possible in Northern California. http://1.usa.gov/XsUd
So you can comment now???
Quoting Luisport:
No one is interested?


hard to get interested if you don't give us something to be interested in.. the link doesn't work.. not a lot of info....are you meaning the monster storm under Alaska?

This one? Please credit Hydrus for the image from posts 427, 431.





in the first map you can see a massive atmospheric river heading to north California
Quoting Luisport:
in the first map you post, you can see a massive atmospheric river heading to north California
Quoting Luisport:
in the first map you can see a massive atmospheric river heading to north California
The ARKstorm was what would be predicted as a major rainfall event that would consist of a lot of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, followed by a tropical air mass that melts all the snow.

Such a scenario might actually be coming, with the first round hitting on Wednesday, then Thursday into Friday, another on Saturday, and then lasting through Sunday as well. A full five days worth of heavy rainfall in Northern and Central California.

This will bring heavy mountain snow to the higher elevations, but below 8,000 feet it should be all rain. This will melt a lot of the snow that is already up there and cause major flooding in the Central Valley zones.

Quoting pottery:

Bad Omen......

You need to eat it right away to neutralise the Powers.


Careful. First its snakes, then brains. Zombies I tell ya. Its the zombies that worry me most :-P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt it. The cloud pattern is still rough looking.

I doubt it also, it is organizing but no signs of an eye on microwave:

Quoting indianrivguy:


hard to get interested if you don't give us something to be interested in.. the link doesn't work.. not a lot of info....are you meaning the monster storm under Alaska?

This one? Please credit Hydrus for the image from posts 427, 431.







Ty indianrivguy..
I couldn't figure what in the world his post meant..
And here's a shout out to both you and Hydrus for what ya'll bring to the blog.. :)
Quoting indianrivguy:
I saw it too late... arrrgggg

take care Pottery!

so Dougie.. hows corn snake taste?




Small and docile.
549. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:
the funny thing is, the satellite data which shows .33C above the 33-year average is part of the overall data set used to show .6C over the last hundred years. the data are not incongruous.





i am trying to download a graph from his site and having trouble....the trend shows the temps going down but co2 going up would like someone to explain that because it's confusing to me....
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/beta?lat=38.1 2809&lon=-119.77052&zoom=7&type=lightmap&units=eng lish&rad=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=1&svr.opa=70&p ix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=0&nd fd=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&ib=0&pep=0&extremes=0&hurre vac=0&livesurge=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&hur=0
Quoting Luisport:
The ARKstorm was what would be predicted as a major rainfall event that would consist of a lot of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, followed by a tropical air mass that melts all the snow.

Such a scenario might actually be coming, with the first round hitting on Wednesday, then Thursday into Friday, another on Saturday, and then lasting through Sunday as well. A full five days worth of heavy rainfall in Northern and Central California.

This will bring heavy mountain snow to the higher elevations, but below 8,000 feet it should be all rain. This will melt a lot of the snow that is already up there and cause major flooding in the Central Valley zones.



Thats NOT an ARKstorm.

An ARKstorm is your little storm here on steroids.

An ARKstorm has hurricane force winds and lasts for a month.

This, you have here, is just your average California soaker.

Also, an ARKstorm is made up of a string of lows on the Pineapple Express. What you have here is just one high and one low.
Quoting yonzabam:
I know that different greenhouse gases trap outgoing infrared at different wavelengths, and that the efficiency of this heat trapping process diminishes the more of the greenhouse gas is added, until a saturation point is reached where adding more of a greenhouse gas does not result in additional warming.

This is why you hear discussions of climate sensitivity being related to a doubling of CO2 concentration. It's better approximated by logarithmic than linear. It's not so much that it "doesn't result in additional warming," it's more that the resulting warming effect gets smaller and smaller as the concentration increases.
Quoting yonzabam:
In the past, some argued that this saturation point had virtually been reached for the two infrared wavelength regions that CO2 traps, so that the addition of more CO2 would have no effect.

Some have tried to argue this but it is just not accurate.
Quoting yonzabam:
But, water vapour reradiates outgoing infrared at such a broad range of wavelengths, that it's difficult to imagine any saturation point being reached, although it will become progressively less efficient as a heat trapping gas.

Bit confused, here. If increasing cloud cover is not the mechanism that counteracts the increasing warming effect of increased water vapour, what is?

Water vapor has a much much lower residence time in the atmosphere than CO2. Addition of tons of H20 today would mostly be gone within several days. Without another mechanism to continually add H20 to the atmosphere, it's concentration would not stay high. (Hint: the other mechanism is GHG warming)

Not all clouds are a negative feedback to a warming global climate. Low clouds typically have a net cooling effect and high clouds typically have a net warming effect.
JTWC remains at 45kts at 2100z warning. The peak intensity on day 5 is 100kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 4.7N 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 155.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 5.0N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 5.3N 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 5.6N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 5.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 6.3N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 7.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 8.5N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 154.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//

Well, it's definitely going to rain in Northern California during the next five days...

Local Weather Alert

Flood Watch for Northern San Joaquin Valley, CA

From 4:00 PM PST, Thu., Nov 29, 2012 until 4:00 PM PST, Sun., Dec 02, 2012

Issued by The National Weather Service
Sacramento, CA

Tue, Nov 27, 2012, 11:12 AM PST

Local Radar Map
Updated Nov 27, 2012, 12:20pm PST

Weather in Motion® | Enlarge Map
Get WeatherReady
During a Flood
After the Flood
Home Cleanup
Preventing Water Damage
Video: WeatherReady Safety & Preparation
... FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... SACRAMENTO VALLEY... WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA... NORTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS... CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA... CLEAR LAKE AREA... SHASTA LAKE AREA... LASSEN PARK... MOTHERLODE... NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND EAST SLOPE OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER SHASTA COUNTY ALONG WITH BUTTE AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES WHERE A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS: DEBRIS FLOWS LIKELY... ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IN SHASTA... TEHAMA... COLUSA... AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS WITH RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE UPPER SACRAMENTO RIVER. MOUNTAIN RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ABOVE THE RESERVOIRS IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
556. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


No. It's called using datasets that are relevant and comparable. If datasets are on different baselines they are not comparable. It's not a matter of "tailoring to our liking" or whatever other scare-words one comes up with, it's a matter of being accurate, correct, & honest.

If you still are having confusion over this topic, please read my post above that summarizes the many differences between temperature data sets. It is important to know the differences between them if you want to talk about them.



how accurate are pre 1979 data sets??? is there a % you could provide trying to really understand how accurate data sets are...thanks
Quoting yoboi:


i am trying to download a graph from his site and having trouble....the trend shows the temps going down but co2 going up would like someone to explain that because it's confusing to me....


Turn it upside down. It might make more sense.
Here is the JTWC prognostic reasoning of the 2100z warning.

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE DEEP CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION PERSISTS
IN FLARING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT EXPANSION OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EIR SHOWS THE BROKEN FORMATIVE
BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAVE YET TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE CENTRALIZED CONVECTION. A 271313Z OSCAT PASS
INDICATES WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTER RANGE
FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH THE SYSTEMS PRESENT INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE LLCC
PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD,
AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR GREATER VENTING ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. TS 26W HAS SEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT REMAINS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VWS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. INTENSITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGINS TO FAN OUT THROUGH TAU 120.
GFDN AND EGRR REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY WESTWARD, WITH NGPS AND GFS
TRACKING THE SYSTEM BETWEEN PALAU AND YAP, AND ECMF REMAINS THE
NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF YAP. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE NGPS/GFS SOLUTION, BUT STAYS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE EARLIER TAUS DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW BASED ON
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN
Quoting MrMixon:
Well, it's definitely going to rain in Northern California during the next five days...

Thank's for me this is an event that everyone should be whatching very close!!!
hey TomballTXPride, why do you keep asserting people aren't satisfying your necessity of criteria for valid data, meanwhile you post No data yourself, all the while accusing others of character assassination because they do exactly what you are doing... why is that?
you've not cited one source in this entire comment section, but you've used plenty of your own words to refute via opinion the actual cited and peer reviewed facts being provided by counterparts in the debate.

it reeks of smear tactic, non-substantiated. i wouldn't remark on it if you didn't accuse others of doing the same repeatedly... yes, several others do only resort to smear, they just don't pervasively perform the level of hypocrisy you have objectively demonstrated.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 27 2012
======================================

The low pressure area over Andaman Sea and neighborhood persists. It would become well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/me dium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and %20mslp!48!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plot s!2012112712!!/
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JTWC remains at 45kts at 2100z warning. The peak intensity on day 5 is 100kts.



** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS BOPHA 1224 (1224) INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC
00HR 4.5N 155.0E 1000HPA 18M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 4.0N 152.8E 988HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 4.0N 150.5E 980HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 4.9N 146.8E 970HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 6.1N 143.0E 965HPA 38M/S
P+120HR 6.9N 139.8E 960HPA 40M/S=

that is odd.. CMA is only showing 80 knots and they are usually close to JTWC estimate forecast intensity.

Quoting Luisport:
Thank's for me this is an event that everyone should be whatching very close!!!
Yes, think this is scary for weather! Saw your post last eve. Worry... have friends in San Fran. Want to know more about this. See today a HUGE storm off of Alaska. This is crazy weather!
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Yes, think this is scary for weather! Saw your post last eve. Worry... have friends in San Fran. Want to know more about this. See today a HUGE storm off of Alaska. This is crazy weather!
Just see this map! http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273489878375862 273/photo/1


Area of interest in the Bay Of Bengal. (lower right corner of water vapor imagery)
Quoting Luisport:
Just see this map! http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273489878375862 273/photo/1
RyanMaueRyan Maue 3 h


GFS 12z showed 5-day rain totals for N. California from San Fran north 6-12'' (+ at elevation, all liquid). Amazing
Quoting Minnemike:
hey TomballTXPride, why do you keep asserting people aren't satisfying your necessity of criteria for valid data, meanwhile you post No data yourself, all the while accusing others of character assassination because they do exactly what you are doing... why is that?
you've not cited one source in this entire comment section, but you've used plenty of your own words to refute via opinion the actual cited and peer reviewed facts being provided by counterparts in the debate.

it reeks of smear tactic, non-substantiated. i wouldn't remark on it if you didn't accuse others of doing the same repeatedly... yes, several others do only resort to smear, they just don't pervasively perform the level of hypocrisy you have objectively demonstrated.


I got an hour's ban for calling him a troll. Personal attacks are not allowed. Fair enough, I understand that, but it was an honest appraisal of his behaviour on here.

Nea also accused him of 'trollish behaviour' and he hasn't been on here recently.
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Yes, think this is scary for weather! Saw your post last eve. Worry... have friends in San Fran. Want to know more about this. See today a HUGE storm off of Alaska. This is crazy weather!


To clear up any misunderstanding, the storm off of Alaska posted in comment #431 was from November 2nd - not current. Hydrus made mention of that in the caption above his image.

Here's the current Northeast Pacific WV sat.

Quoting MrMixon:
Well, it's definitely going to rain in Northern California during the next five days...



as for topography... is there any rivers or outlets to sea for major drainage?
I didn't have much to do today, so I downloaded Stephen Hawking's equations on the unified field theory. I want to see if he made any mistakes. Even according to him, his theory has a lot of black holes in it. You have to watch these scientists carefully.
GFS West Coast "Pineapple Express" http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedd ed&v=3rNsIDG5Hjs
Quoting Grothar:
I didn't have much to do today, so I downloaded Stephen Hawking's equations on the unified field theory. I want to see if he made any mistakes. Even according to him, his theory has a lot of black holes in it. You have to watch these scientists carefully.


its those damned quarks I tell ya... they are making the holes...
Powerful “Pineapple Express” system will bring flooding to parts of the West Coast this week
Posted by Chris Kerr on November 27, 2012
A strong and broad low pressure system will remain nearly stationary off the U.S. Northwest coast this week, bringing repeated rounds of very heavy rain to western Oregon and Northern California. This set up is a “Pineapple Express” type of system in which copious amounts of tropical moisture from north of the Hawaiian Islands is transported across the North Pacific Ocean into the main storm system.


Water Vapor satellite showing the current position of the storm system that will affect the U.S. West Coast this week.

“Pineapple Express” storms have the ability to cause significant flooding and mud slides. Were this event to occur later into December or January there would be a major threat of flooding in mountainous areas due to snow melt. So far this fall in the Sierra Nevada’s snowfall has been fairly light, thus the risk of flooding due to snow melt is somewhat low.

WDT WeatherOps WRF model showing some locations could receive well over a foot of total rainfall!

Some heavy snowfall is expected in the mountains, however due to the tropical nature of the air mass snow levels will generally be above 8000-9000 feet. Some isolated severe storms are not out of the question across parts of northern California on Wednesday. Strong dynamics coupled with cold air aloft will allow for the formation of some mini-supercells. Strong winds up to 60 mph will be possible in both coastal and mountain areas as well. Keep checking our blog throughout this week for more updates on this significant storm!
http://weatherops.wdtinc.com/?p=1413
The Climate Prediction Center is still bullish about a warm 6-10 day period for almost all of the Lower 48:

CPC
Quoting yonzabam:
Nea...hasn't been on here recently.
I didn't go anywhere; just finishing up an iPhone app, and putting the finishing touches on migrating a client to VOIP...
Quoting yonzabam:


I got an hour's ban for calling him a troll. Personal attacks are not allowed. Fair enough, I understand that, but it was an honest appraisal of his behaviour on here.

Nea also accused him of 'trollish behaviour' and he hasn't been on here recently.
there is trollish behavior, and there are trolls.
i think it should be clear to us all he's not a troll. nor am i, despite lately that while being very wrapped up with a new baby, i've become incensed to only comment upon seeing his tactic employed within a cloak of righteousness.. i mean, at least Nea links data, despite people expressing a lack of tact. so in the moments i have to compose on this forum my observations relevant to discussions, i've narrowly addressed Tomball.
guess that that last bit was a long winded supporting statement that i too am not a troll ;)
Quoting indianrivguy:


its those damned quarks I tell ya... they are making the holes...


Yeah, and they are trying to convince us they can tell the mass of a constellation 10 billion light years from earth. HA.
Quoting Minnemike:
there is trollish behavior, and there are trolls.
i think it should be clear to us all he's not a troll. nor am i, despite lately that while being very wrapped up with a new baby, i've become incensed to only comment upon seeing his tactic employed within a cloak of righteousness.. i mean, at least Nea links data, despite people expressing a lack of tact. so in the moments i have to compose on this forum my observations relevant to discussions, i've narrowly addressed Tomball.
guess that that last bit was a long winded supporting statement that i too am not a troll ;)


Congrats on the new baby Mike!
Yes.. unfortunate that I am not a weather person! Try and learn here. Have enough home grown knowledge of this. Limited but I can grow plants and teach others how to raise them. AND yes I am home grown. I would say that I have more knowledge than anyone coming out of a Hort School today! Just looking at weather and it's changes. Hort does not teach that. Chems are a problem that need to be looked at in a serious way in the US. I'll stop here because I am banned from Reuters. (Probably a wonderful thing here). Check out Honeybees and Europe! No this is really weather related... has to do with rain and seeds! I'll stop:)
Quoting Luisport:
Powerful “Pineapple Express” system will bring flooding to parts of the West Coast this week
Posted by Chris Kerr on November 27, 2012
A strong and broad low pressure system will remain nearly stationary off the U.S. Northwest coast this week, bringing repeated rounds of very heavy rain to western Oregon and Northern California. This set up is a “Pineapple Express” type of system in which copious amounts of tropical moisture from north of the Hawaiian Islands is transported across the North Pacific Ocean into the main storm system.


Water Vapor satellite showing the current position of the storm system that will affect the U.S. West Coast this week.

“Pineapple Express” storms have the ability to cause significant flooding and mud slides. Were this event to occur later into December or January there would be a major threat of flooding in mountainous areas due to snow melt. So far this fall in the Sierra Nevada’s snowfall has been fairly light, thus the risk of flooding due to snow melt is somewhat low.

WDT WeatherOps WRF model showing some locations could receive well over a foot of total rainfall!

Some heavy snowfall is expected in the mountains, however due to the tropical nature of the air mass snow levels will generally be above 8000-9000 feet. Some isolated severe storms are not out of the question across parts of northern California on Wednesday. Strong dynamics coupled with cold air aloft will allow for the formation of some mini-supercells. Strong winds up to 60 mph will be possible in both coastal and mountain areas as well. Keep checking our blog throughout this week for more updates on this significant storm!
http://weatherops.wdtinc.com/?p=1413
Can someone at least comment this???
This morning's OSCAT of the blob... People in Panama said it brought rain like they never saw before. That blob has killed people already.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Congrats on the new baby Mike!
thanks!!!
^_^
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, and they are trying to convince us they can tell the mass of a constellation 10 billion light years from earth. HA.


pffft... ya don't need no fancy pants telly scopes fer that...I saw a guy do that by holding his thumb up and sighting along side it.. to the OUNCE.. and this was pear reviewed too... :)
Quoting indianrivguy:


pffft... ya don't need no fancy pants telly scopes fer that...I saw a guy do that by holding his thumb up and sighting along side it.. to the OUNCE.. and this was pear reviewed too... :)


I thought Doug got you on the "pear" before. :)
Quoting Luisport:
Powerful “Pineapple Express” system will bring flooding to parts of the West Coast this week
Posted by Chris Kerr on November 27, 2012
A strong and broad low pressure system will remain nearly stationary off the U.S. Northwest coast this week, bringing repeated rounds of very heavy rain to western Oregon and Northern California. This set up is a “Pineapple Express” type of system in which copious amounts of tropical moisture from north of the Hawaiian Islands is transported across the North Pacific Ocean into the main storm system.


Water Vapor satellite showing the current position of the storm system that will affect the U.S. West Coast this week.

“Pineapple Express” storms have the ability to cause significant flooding and mud slides. Were this event to occur later into December or January there would be a major threat of flooding in mountainous areas due to snow melt. So far this fall in the Sierra Nevada’s snowfall has been fairly light, thus the risk of flooding due to snow melt is somewhat low.

WDT WeatherOps WRF model showing some locations could receive well over a foot of total rainfall!

Some heavy snowfall is expected in the mountains, however due to the tropical nature of the air mass snow levels will generally be above 8000-9000 feet. Some isolated severe storms are not out of the question across parts of northern California on Wednesday. Strong dynamics coupled with cold air aloft will allow for the formation of some mini-supercells. Strong winds up to 60 mph will be possible in both coastal and mountain areas as well. Keep checking our blog throughout this week for more updates on this significant storm!
http://weatherops.wdtinc.com/?p=1413


Very nice.
From: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
Headline: STORM TO REACH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
Description: THE FIRST STORM WILL PRODUCE AROUND 0NE HALF INCH OF RAIN UP TO ONE INCH LOCALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO MERCED COUNTY AND FIVE HUNDREDTHS TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM NORTH OF KERN COUNTY TO FRESNO COUNTY. THERE WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST PARTS OF KERN COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7500 FEET NEAR YOSEMITE...RISING TO AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH THIS FIRST STORM WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR MERCED AND SW WINDS 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BELOW THE COTTONWOOD AND PACHECO PASSES. WINDS MAY ALSO BE STRONG IN THE SOUTH VALLEY NEAR THE BASE OF THE GRAPEVINE. A SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO LINGER MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR MERCED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF KERN COUNTY TO FRESNO COUNTY AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN KERN COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 7500 FEET NEAR YOSEMITE... TO AROUND 8000 FEET IN SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK...AND AROUND 8500 FEET IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THE SECOND STORM WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 6 INCHES IN SEQUOIA NATIONAL FOREST TO AROUND 10 INCHES NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.
Instructions: STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE... OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD...FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO VISIT OUR FACEBOOK PAGE AT US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD OR TWEET US @NWSHANFORD ON TWITTER.
Target Area: WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, and they are trying to convince us they can tell the mass of a constellation 10 billion light years from earth. HA.




Weighing it is the easy part. The hard part is putting it all back where it was after you weigh it.
and no snow accumulation for me in S PA :'(
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I think that is why they call it the "string theory". That is what holds the universe together.

Quoting yoboi:



i said the point i was making......several times...cherry pick all ya want....


you didn't say the point you were making. you dredged up old news and tried to pass it off as something relevant. and you got caught out, and now you're weaseling.
Quoting Grothar:


Turn it upside down. It might make more sense.
Dammit Gro.........I thought you were talking about my beer... Brb, Have to change clothes
Quoting Grothar:


I think that is why they call it the "string theory". That is what holds the universe together.



You are just pulling our string now. We both know that the dark doesn't matter. ....... Orrrrrrrrr, does it???
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Climate Prediction Center is still bullish about a warm 6-10 day period for almost all of the Lower 48:

CPCI didn't go anywhere; just finishing up an iPhone app, and putting the finishing touches on migrating a client to VOIP...
Things are busy in Naples this time of year with the Snowbirds arriving
Time to enjoy the beautiful day, 47F and the sun is shining. I'm going to the beach. As it is Seattle, the rain returns tomorrow, except this time it seems CA is going to catch the worst of it...
596. yoboi
Quoting plutorising:


you didn't say the point you were making. you dredged up old news and tried to pass it off as something relevant. and you got caught out, and now you're weaseling.



point made again....
597. yoboi
Quoting Grothar:


Turn it upside down. It might make more sense.



lol
We can expect a storm each day starting Wednesday and lasting through Sunday with periods of heavy rain and gusty winds at times.

There is a concern of flooding in the North Bay and in the Santa Cruz mountains.

The San Anselmo creeks and rivers are among those at risk, so the city is handing out free sandbags and sand so residents can prepare for the wet weather. They remember the devastaing flood in 2005, and a smaller one in 2008. And so, the city wants to prevent downtown businesses from being submerged in water, like in years past.

Some residents, like Maynard Brusman, are taking it in stride. "Any place has problems," he told NBC Bay Area. "The rain is great. But you have to prepare for it."

Here's how it breaks down according to the NBC Bay Area weather department.

Tuesday will be a mostly cloudy day to start with areas of dense fog and drizzle. The clouds will increase in the afternoon as the first in a series of storms moves into the coast.

Storm No. 1 arrives early Wednesday morning. This will be heavy on the winds and moderate on the rain. This is a Bay Area wide system that will hit the entire region. It arrives before sunrise with the strongest wind and rain hitting between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. Rain totals will be between .25 to 1.25 inch. The highest totals will be over the North Bay valleys. Rain will linger into the afternoon. Widespread Bay Area wind gusts of up to 50 mph could also bring down trees and create power outages.

Storm No. 2 will arrive Thursday and will last into Friday. It is a traditional north to south weather system with rain starting north of the Golden Gate and moving south. This system has more moisture content with as much as five inches of rain falling the North Bay. The current model projections have the flooding risk the highest on Friday. Local creeks, small rivers and streams will be at the greatest risk for quick rising water. Large Bay Area rivers could rise as much as 3 to 10 feet. There are no flood stages expected at this time. You can moniter conditions here.

Storm No. 3 is still developing, but has the potenital for even more moisture with periods of heavy rains on Saturday that could linger into Sunday. The first break in the weather will be next Monday.

The storms will also bring high surf along the coast. Probably not enough for the Mavericks surf contest to be called, but that is a possibility so stay tuned.
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Bay-Area-Sto rm-Door-Opens-Tomorrow-181039021.html
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Dammit Gro.........I thought you were talking about my beer... Brb, Have to change clothes


You should only do that when you want to look at your watch.
Quoting Grothar:


You should only do that when you want to look at your watch.
Done that
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
800 AM CHST WED NOV 28 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.9 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF NUKUORO
85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT AND
565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION LATER
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...4.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 154.9
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

WILLIAMS

Fresh Storm Targets Northern California This Week
UPDATED 2 PM PST, November 27, 2012
By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Chad Merrill

A significant change in the weather pattern will unfold beginning Wednesday across California. A strong storm system will deliver heavy rain, gusty winds and high Sierra snow. Flash flooding will become a problem in the mountains and wildfire-burned areas.
A low pressure swirling in the Gulf of Alaska will slide eastward towards the Northwest Coast tonight and early Wednesday. As it does, southerly winds will wrap around the storm, bringing plenty of moisture that stretches across the eastern Pacific inland. All this moisture will be squeezed out as heavy rain in the Golden State with snow for the Sierra.
The rain will increase in coverage Wednesday and continue through Sunday, dropping up to a foot along the foothills of the Coast Range and Sierra with 4 to 5 inches farther north along the Oregon and Washington coasts.
Snow levels will drop from 11,000 feet to 6,000 feet as the storm moves onshore Wednesday. Therefore, only the highest elevations will squeak out the most snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in place for the Sierra for Wednesday. Elevations above 6,000 feet will accumulate 4 to 8 inches with places like Mt. Lassen getting more than a foot.
Flood Watches stretch throughout the Sacramento Valley for Thursday to Sunday. Flooding will be exacerbated across burn areas across Northern California resulting from this summer`s wildfires as the lack of vegetation along the hillsides will increase the runoff of water and mud. Additional flooding is possible as a result of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada.
In addition to the heavy rain, gusty winds will increase as the low strengthens offshore. Wind Advisories are in effect for the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys as well as south-central Oregon for Wednesday.
The mountains will see the strongest winds, with gusts up to 60 mph expected. The Central Valley will see sustained 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 55 mph. These winds will make travel along Interstates 5 and 80, U.S Route 50 and Highway 99 difficult, particularly for those in high-profile vehicles, and could also lead to localized power outages.
Energy spokes delivering fresh Pacific moisture inland will rotate around the main low that will pivot to the British Columbia Coast. This will keep the rain, wind and mountain snow threat going into Sunday. The pattern won't break until the Central U.S. high pressure ridge breaks down and slides east. That doesn't look to happen until early next week.
http://web.live.weatherbug.com/StormCentral/Page/ StormCentral.aspx?lid=SC2&&story_id=14302&zcode=z4 641&zip=90045&Units=0&rnd=112720121154-14302&utm_s ource=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

http://www.weatherbug.com/images/bugtoday/Calif_Rai n_112812_1.jpg?lid=SCSI
Getting closer to Typhoon status acording to ADT.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 NOV 2012 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 4:47:54 N Lon : 154:54:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 992.4mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -82.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
GOES-R Satellite Program Undergoes Successful Review

The GOES-R Series Program, which is leading the effort to replace and upgrade NOAA’s existing fleet of geostationary satellites that track severe weather across the United States, received a favorable appraisal conducted by an external team of aerospace experts of its preparations to launch the new series, beginning in late 2015.

“Severe weather was again a major story in America this year,” said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator of NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service. “Passing this Mission Critical Design Review gives us confidence that the GOES-R Program’s development is progressing well and will be ready to carry the latest technology to help improve NOAA’s weather forecasts.”

At all times, NOAA operates two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) from a fixed position, 22,300 miles above the Earth. Additionally, NOAA keeps one GOES in orbital storage mode, ready to step in if one of the active satellites experiences trouble. NOAA’s geostationary satellites constantly monitor all weather conditions, from tornadoes, floods and snowstorms, to wildfires and developing tropical storms. Instruments on GOES also monitor solar activity.

NOAA’s GOES-13, which is the GOES East satellite, proved its mettle when Sandy threatened the Caribbean and the U.S., sending more than 1,200 images of the storm to NOAA forecasters, from October 20-31, as it approached -- and then impacted -- the Eastern seaboard.

NOAA manages the GOES-R Series Program through an integrated NOAA-NASA program office, staffed with personnel from NOAA and NASA, and co-located at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. Beginning with the first scheduled launch in 2015, the four GOES-R Series satellites will extend the GOES system through 2036.

The GOES-R satellites are expected to more than double the clarity of today’s GOES imagery and provide more atmospheric observations than current capabilities with more frequent images. Data from the GOES-R instruments will be used to create many different products that will help NOAA meteorologists and other users monitor the atmosphere, land, ocean and the sun. GOES-R will also carry a new Geostationary Lightning Mapper that will provide for the first time a continuous surveillance of total lightning activity throughout the Americas and adjacent oceans.

The satellite and instruments are procured and managed by NASA as part of the GOES-R Program at NASA Goddard. “This is a critical milestone in our program,“ said Pam Sullivan, project manager of the GOES-R Flight Project at NASA Goddard. “We have now completed spacecraft design and are transitioning into fabrication as we prepare to integrate the GOES-R instruments.”

“We’re just a few years away from seeing significant improvements in the way NOAA will serve the public with better weather forecasts and warnings,” said Greg Mandt, director of the GOES-R Series Program. “That’s something everyone should be excited about.”

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources.

For more information about GOES-R, visit:
www.goes-r.gov/
The rain and snow should begin falling Wednesday and continue through Sunday.

Wind gusts could reach about 40 mph in and around the Sacramento Valley.

A flood watch also has been issued for the Valley.

There is the potential for urban and small stream flooding, where KCRA 3 meteorologists say some areas could see 3 to 5 inches of rain over the five-day period.

In the Feather River Canyon, where KCRA 3's David Bienick is reporting from Tuesday, there could be as many as 20 inches of rainfall, chief meteorologist Mark Finan said.

The Sierra could see as much as 2 feet of snow, above 7,000 feet.

Read more: http://www.kcra.com/news/What-to-expect-as-NorCal- braces-for-November-storm-series/-/11797728/175674 84/-/9pygikz/-/index.html#ixzz2DSs6zvoY


Rainfall Amount Wednesday through the Weekend in CA/OR/WA.

Look at the massive amounts in Northern California. Some areas, as stated in the article below, will receive 14-20" of rainfall near the Western Foothills of the Sierras.

Urging all residents to take precautions in the Northern California Central Valley and Foothills zones, extending up to South-west Oregon.
ARKstorm fears Northern California Residents as Atmospheric River sets up.



The ARKstorm was what would be predicted as a major rainfall event that would consist of a lot of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, followed by a tropical air mass that melts all the snow.

Such a scenario might actually be coming, with the first round hitting on Wednesday, then Thursday into Friday, another on Saturday, and then lasting through Sunday as well. A full five days worth of heavy rainfall in Northern and Central California.

This will bring heavy mountain snow to the higher elevations, but below 8,000 feet it should be all rain. This will melt a lot of the snow that is already up there and cause major flooding in the Central Valley zones.

14 inches of rain for Sacramento is in the official TheWeatherSpace.com Forecast grid with 20 inches for the foothill zones east of there.

San Francisco will get over eight inches of rainfall.

Link
Thank you so much! Please heads up to this storm!!!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Chuuk

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.5N 154.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.8N 151.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Chuuk region
45 HRS: 5.1N 149.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
69 HRS: 5.6N 144.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Chuuk

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.5N 154.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.8N 151.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Chuuk region
45 HRS: 5.1N 149.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
69 HRS: 5.6N 144.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island







BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
800 AM CHST WED NOV 28 2012

CORRECTED STORM MOTION

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.9 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF NUKUORO
85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT AND
565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH BUT
IS EXPECTED RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...4.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 154.9
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Getting closer to Typhoon status acording to ADT.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 NOV 2012 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 4:47:54 N Lon : 154:54:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 992.4mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -82.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

That seems high. It's not that impressive on infrared. Definitely a large, cold CDO, but not all that impressive a cloud pattern and microwave has revealed that the inner core isn't all that great. It will strengthen but it could take time. That's bad news for the Philippines as the longer it stays weak the more likely it is to move close to that area.

Quoting Luisport:
We can expect a storm each day starting Wednesday and lasting through Sunday with periods of heavy rain and gusty winds at times.

There is a concern of flooding in the North Bay and in the Santa Cruz mountains.

The San Anselmo creeks and rivers are among those at risk, so the city is handing out free sandbags and sand so residents can prepare for the wet weather. They remember the devastaing flood in 2005, and a smaller one in 2008. And so, the city wants to prevent downtown businesses from being submerged in water, like in years past.

Some residents, like Maynard Brusman, are taking it in stride. "Any place has problems," he told NBC Bay Area. "The rain is great. But you have to prepare for it."

Here's how it breaks down according to the NBC Bay Area weather department.

Tuesday will be a mostly cloudy day to start with areas of dense fog and drizzle. The clouds will increase in the afternoon as the first in a series of storms moves into the coast.

Storm No. 1 arrives early Wednesday morning. This will be heavy on the winds and moderate on the rain. This is a Bay Area wide system that will hit the entire region. It arrives before sunrise with the strongest wind and rain hitting between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. Rain totals will be between .25 to 1.25 inch. The highest totals will be over the North Bay valleys. Rain will linger into the afternoon. Widespread Bay Area wind gusts of up to 50 mph could also bring down trees and create power outages.

Storm No. 2 will arrive Thursday and will last into Friday. It is a traditional north to south weather system with rain starting north of the Golden Gate and moving south. This system has more moisture content with as much as five inches of rain falling the North Bay. The current model projections have the flooding risk the highest on Friday. Local creeks, small rivers and streams will be at the greatest risk for quick rising water. Large Bay Area rivers could rise as much as 3 to 10 feet. There are no flood stages expected at this time. You can moniter conditions here.

Storm No. 3 is still developing, but has the potenital for even more moisture with periods of heavy rains on Saturday that could linger into Sunday. The first break in the weather will be next Monday.

The storms will also bring high surf along the coast. Probably not enough for the Mavericks surf contest to be called, but that is a possibility so stay tuned.
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Bay-Area-Sto rm-Door-Opens-Tomorrow-181039021.html


On the plus side, you could just hang your dirty laundry on the line now and by Tuesday next it should be done, no need to fuss with the washing machine. Such practicalities make boys proud of their dads.
13 storms have formed since 1950 below 5N in WPAC.

Link
Quoting yoboi:


i am trying to download a graph from his site and having trouble....the trend shows the temps going down but co2 going up would like someone to explain that because it's confusing to me....

If you cant download it, it either doesn't exist or you should just take a screenshot of it.
If its on your screen, you can screenshot it.
Trying to do things sometimes is pointless. Actions are a lot better than words.
Need an explanation!

Weatherunderground has a section for Climate Change,

Why do we get so much discussion on the topic on The Tropical Chat?

When someone engages on the subject of Climate Change, Global Warming, they get flagged.

When a blogger challenges the pro-Climate Change people, they get ganged up on.

I love weather, I've learned more about weather from this blog, than any book or class could have taught me.

Here is what I don't understand, The Admins here ignore those who are pro-climate change on the Tropics section.

Here is the Weatherunderground policy!

I'm just following the rules, and I'm a paid subscriber!

Start a Tropics Chat!
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
Quoting PlazaRed:

If you cant download it, it either doesn't exist or you should just take a screenshot of it.
If its on your screen, you can screenshot it.
Trying to do things sometimes is pointless. Actions are a lot better than words.


Isn't "trying" to do something an "action"?
Would this be included on Sandy's disaster costs??

US Airways: Superstorm Sandy cost $35 million in profits

US Airways said its profits will take a $35 million hit because of the fallout from "Superstorm Sandy."

The Associated Press writes:

"The airline said the storm hurt October revenue by $30 million, and cut $15 million from October profits. It estimated that November's profit will be hurt by about $20 million because of the storm. "
"US Airways said total bookings fell 13% for Oct. 24 through Nov. 3 compared with the same period in 2011. And tickets booked within 13 days of departure — often an airline's most lucrative — dropped 21%."
The Charlotte Observer adds "for November, (US Airways) said it expects a 2% hit to passenger revenue per available seat mile, an important financial indicator for airlines … ."

The airline says demand has since returned to normal levels, according to The Arizona Republic.

Sandy disrupted travel plans in the busy Northeast over a prolonged period that stretched from from Oct. 24 through Nov. 3. US Airways' Philadelphia hub was among the hardest-hit airports during that window.

Overall, more than 20,000 flights were canceled from late October into early November because of Sandy.

Among other airlines, United – the nation's biggest carrier – said Sandy reduced its October profits by $35 million. Delta, the No. 2 carrier, put the figure at about $20 million.

Neither carrier offered an estimate of Sandy's impact for November.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Need an explanation!

Weatherunderground has a section for Climate Change,

Why do we get so much discussion on the topic on The Tropical Chat?

When someone engages on the subject of Climate Change, Global Warming, they get flagged.

When a blogger challenges the pro-Climate Change people, they get ganged up on.

I love weather, I've learned more about weather from this blog, than any book or class could have taught me.

Here is what I don't understand, The Admins here ignore those who are pro-climate change on the Tropics section.

Here is the Weatherunderground policy!

I'm just following the rules, and I'm a paid subscriber!

Start a Tropics Chat!
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

If you haven't noticed, the whole blog is pro-climate change, including Dr Masters. Yes there is a separate blog for climate change but Dr Masters writes blogs on climate change when there is no weather news or topics.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Need an explanation!

Weatherunderground has a section for Climate Change,

Why do we get so much discussion on the topic on The Tropical Chat?

When someone engages on the subject of Climate Change, Global Warming, they get flagged.

When a blogger challenges the pro-Climate Change people, they get ganged up on.

I love weather, I've learned more about weather from this blog, than any book or class could have taught me.

Here is what I don't understand, The Admins here ignore those who are pro-climate change on the Tropics section.

Here is the Weatherunderground policy!

I'm just following the rules, and I'm a paid subscriber!

Start a Tropics Chat!
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

The topics of this blog, stated at the bottom of the heading are Hurricane and Climate change.
In this case any amount of discussion on climate change can occur as its part of the blog heading.
Look at the very bottom lines of the blog headings.
Having written this I personally feel that there is now very little of our present climatic situation which is not being affected by "climate change." In fact I also think that a lot of people would not be on here if it was not for their fears of climatic changes and it must be taken as fact that a lot of diverse and interesting information on climate details is available on here and probably nowhere else to the same degree.
Quoting MidMOwx:


Isn't "trying" to do something an "action"?

I meant it in the vein of carrying on over and over again, as opposed to stopping the action and doing something different to achieve the desired result.
Apologies for not being crystal clear on that one.
SNOW!, first accumulating of the season.
NWS @usNWSgov
Up to 5 inches of snowfall reported today across northern New Jersey #NWS #WinterWx http://go.usa.gov/gTKA



Link
Heres an interesting link.
Its to do with carbon laws outside of the US, in this case Europe. A quote from it:-

"Lawyers have said the bill is unusual because it would prevent U.S. companies from complying with the laws of another country."

Heres the link from Reuters:-

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/27/us-usa- airlines-emissions-idUSBRE8AQ1AR20121127
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Need an explanation!

Weatherunderground has a section for Climate Change,

Why do we get so much discussion on the topic on The Tropical Chat?

When someone engages on the subject of Climate Change, Global Warming, they get flagged.

When a blogger challenges the pro-Climate Change people, they get ganged up on.

I love weather, I've learned more about weather from this blog, than any book or class could have taught me.

Here is what I don't understand, The Admins here ignore those who are pro-climate change on the Tropics section.

Here is the Weatherunderground policy!

I'm just following the rules, and I'm a paid subscriber!

Start a Tropics Chat!
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.




We can always discuss what subject Dr Masters picks for his blog. Since his blog involves climate change currently, well....
Quoting AussieStorm:

If you haven't noticed, the whole blog is pro-climate change, including Dr Masters. Yes there is a separate blog for climate change but Dr Masters writes blogs on climate change when there is no weather news or topics.


I would say a more accurate phrase would be "pro-science". Only loonies are actually "pro-climate change". Nobody here (trolls excepted) wants worldwide calamity.

But you are absolutely correct that pro-science comments are more highly favored here than anti-science comments.
Quoting AussieStorm:

If you haven't noticed, the whole blog is pro-climate change, including Dr Masters. Yes there is a separate blog for climate change but Dr Masters writes blogs on climate change when there is no weather news or topics.
Well, Dr. Masters also writes blog entries on climate change even when there is other weather news--but that's mostly because a) he understands that there isn't a single weather event happening today that isn't effected by the changing climate, and b) there's really no more profound or important thing to talk about than the greatest threat modern civilization has ever faced.

(FWIW, and as Mr. Mixon noted, none of us here are "pro climate change". In fact, most of us are very much against it. A group of oncologists may get together to discuss their specialty, but that doesn't mean they're "pro cancer". Likewise, a bunch of police officers talking shop at a law enforcement convention aren't "pro crime". Just so you know...)
Gorgeous sunset here tonight. These webcams don't do it justice, but they give you an idea:





PS - Does anyone know how to link to a static "snapshot" from a webcam? In other words, I would like to structure the link to point to a webcam image from a particular time. Currently when I link to a webcam it always shows only the latest image from that cam.
Quoting MrMixon:
Does anyone know how to link to a static "snapshot" from a webcam? In other words, I would like to structure the link to point to a webcam image from a particular time. Currently when I link to a webcam it always shows only the latest image from that cam.
Some webcam softwareapps maintain a web-available archive of time-stamped images that can be linked to as an image source. Or you could simply use screen capture software to take a snap, then upload it to a public server...

Great picture, by the way...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, Dr. Masters also writes blog entries on climate change even when there is other weather news--but that's mostly because a) he understands that there isn't a single weather event happening today that isn't effected by the changing climate, and b) there's really no more profound or important thing to talk about than the greatest threat modern civilization has ever faced.

(FWIW, and as Mr. Mixon noted, none of us here are "pro climate change". In fact, most of us are very much against it. A group of oncologists may get together to discuss their specialty, but that doesn't mean they're "pro cancer". Likewise, a bunch of police officers talking shop at a law enforcement convention aren't "pro crime". Just so you know...)

So your saying is that people that deny climate change is happening don't get shouted down and insulted on here... mega LOL.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some webcam softwareapps maintain a web-available archive of time-stamped images that can be linked to as an image source. Or you could simply use screen capture software to take a snap, then upload it to a public server...

Great picture, by the way...


Thanks! These cams are on wunderground... I'm guessing there isn't a way to access their archive via wunderground's interface. I can watch movies for the past 24 hours, but there doesn't seem to be a way to access individual frames from those movies. I'll have to check the pages for the individual cams to see if they have external pages which provide archives.

For general usage I'll have to set up some easy method to store a snapshot online and host it back out for linking. I just want it to be a fairly quick process or I know I won't do it... :)
635. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

So your saying is that people that deny climate change is happening don't get shouted down and insulted on here... mega LOL.



he won't use the bucket to bail that much i know...
I see people quoting the "TinBallTX" poster....

I presume that most know that he is one of the "Jeffs"
who was "permanently banned" and has returned to spread disinformation and discord.

Every post he makes is a violation of the ban circumvention rule.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
When someone engages on the subject of Climate Change, Global Warming, they get flagged.

When a blogger challenges the pro-Climate Change people, they get ganged up on.
Quoting AussieStorm:

So your saying is that people that deny climate change is happening don't get shouted down and insulted on here... mega LOL.

I know. Ain't it the sad truth. But you keep your head high and deal with it and be tough. Don't let the intimidation and name calling bruise you. Afterall, it's a reflection upon the attacker's credibility and character when this happens. And it exposes their weaknesses and/or agenda. Experience tells me that those who cross the line to engage in this type of behavior (like in the comment above #636) do so because they are usually too emotional and often outsmarted, and they know it. They can't come back with anything productive, so they attack and do anything they can to undermines another.

Cest la vie.
The blob near the Yucatan is still looking pretty good. I wonder if it may try something.
LONDON — British police say they found the body of an elderly woman in a flooded home, as hundreds of Britons struggle to contain damage done by the recent wet weather.

North Wales Police said emergency rescue workers discovered the body Tuesday in the Welsh city of St Asaph, where the swollen river Elwy has surged through flood defenses. The death is being treated as unexplained.

Fire service workers have rescued people trapped in their homes by flood water and hundreds have been urged to flee their homes across the country as sustained wet weather kept many areas of Britain under water.

The Environmental Agency warned there is a continued risk of flooding across England, despite a drop in rainfall.
640. beell
Is this a fair comparison? If so, how accurate would you rate the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlooks taken at 4 day intervals?

(Click any graphic for full image)


Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 10/24-Valid 11/01 through 11/07.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/01 through 11/07.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 10/28-Valid 11/05 through 11/11.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/05 through 11/11.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/01-Valid 11/09 through 11/15.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/09 through 11/15.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/05-Valid 11/13 through 11/19.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/13 through 11/19.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/09-Valid 11/17 through 11/23.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/17 through 11/23.


NCEP/NCAR Daily Composites
CPC 6-10 & 8-14 Day Data & Graphics Archive
Quoting AussieStorm:

So your saying is that people that deny climate change is happening don't get shouted down and insulted on here... mega LOL.


In my experience people shout down and insult eachother wherever a free forum is provided on the internet. Apparently this is the way humans interact when they aren't sitting face to face (and even sometimes when they are).

When folks come here and post anti-science stuff or insinuate that Dr. Masters is part of some grand conspiracy... well, I'm not sure what you'd expect.

If someone posts verifiable data that runs contrary to something Dr. Masters says (I've seen it happen) I think it is generally acknowledged and appreciated by the "pro-science" crowd as well as Dr. Masters himself. But coming here with one-liner "gotcha" questions and links to blogs of dubious distinction provokes a strong reaction because, well, there is a limit to everyone's patience...

Honestly, anti-AGW folks are generally "shouted down" with things like reports and charts and data. I have trouble feeling too sorry for people who make statements beyond their expertise and get corrected for it. That's the way the world works.
Quoting MrMixon:


In my experience people shout down and insult eachother wherever a free forum is provided on the internet. Apparently this is the way humans interact when they aren't sitting face to face (and even sometimes when they are).

When folks come here and post anti-science stuff or insinuate that Dr. Masters is part of some grand conspiracy... well, I'm not sure what you'd expect.

If someone posts verifiable data that runs contrary to something Dr. Masters says (I've seen it happen) I think it is generally acknowledged and appreciated by the "pro-science" crowd as well as Dr. Masters himself. But coming here with one-liner "gotcha" questions and links to blogs of dubious distinction provokes a strong reaction because, well, there is a limit to everyone's patience...

Honestly, anti-AGW folks are generally "shouted down" with things like reports and charts and data. I have trouble feeling too sorry for people who make statements beyond their expertise and get corrected for it. That's the way the world works.


Exactly right.
there are few people on earth for whom i have more pity than those who blatantly deny reality and are made fun of for it. the poor, poor dears. hold your heads high, i say! don't let the real world and it's 'actual things' and 'happenings' and 'science' get you down.

as to coming back with anything productive, as has been pointed out earlier, you still haven't coughed up a lick of actual data or science to back up your earlier statement about temperature, and i and others have asked you numerous times.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

I know. Ain't it the sad truth. But you keep your head high and deal with it and be tough. Don't let the intimidation and name calling bruise you. Afterall, it's a reflection upon the attacker's credibility and character when this happens. And it exposes their weaknesses and/or agenda. Experience tells me that those who cross the line to engage in this type of behavior (like in the comment above #636) do so because they are usually too emotional and often outsmarted, and they know it. They can't come back with anything productive, so they attack and do anything they can to undermines another.

Cest la vie.
644. etxwx
Good evening all...no news to report from the passage of the front last evening in E. Texas. No wind, no rain, no winter storms...so I'll just move on to the cute and fuzzy critter news:


Ice Age warmth wiped out lemmings, study finds
By Michelle Warwicker BBC Nature 26 November 2012

Excerpt: Lemmings became "regionally extinct" five times due to rapid climate change during the last Ice Age, scientists have found. Each extinction was followed by a re-colonisation of genetically different lemmings, according to the study. The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences, found that these "regional extinctions" occurred during periods of rapid warming within the last Ice Age.

Scientists suggest such climate fluctuations may have left lemmings unable to adapt to the changes in the vegetation they relied on as a food source. Although Belgium's lemmings were able to re-colonise after each regional extinction, the population lost much of its genetic diversity during this pattern of events.

The team focused on lemmings as indicators of what may have happened to other land mammal populations during the last Ice Age. Since such small mammals would not have been hunted by humans, the discovery of this decrease in population size shows that there was a "general pattern of instability" in both large and small mammals during the Late Pleistocene.

According to the study, this pattern supports the theory that environmental changes, rather than human predation, were the main cause of the demise of megafauna in Europe at the end of the last Ice Age.


The complete article can be found here.
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE.. 7:50 PM EST UPDATED
______________________

MAJOR CALIFORNIA STORM

about the map
if you make the pic bigger...there is the overlap from rain (green to yellow) snow (gray to pink) and the over dashed colors, the brown dashed shade and the yellow dashed shade those are for different wind gust potential.. siting on top of the snow/and on top of the rain.

It took me nearly 3 hours to do this map for you guys...




click on pic for bigger view
647. yoboi
Quoting MrMixon:


In my experience people shout down and insult eachother wherever a free forum is provided on the internet. Apparently this is the way humans interact when they aren't sitting face to face (and even sometimes when they are).

When folks come here and post anti-science stuff or insinuate that Dr. Masters is part of some grand conspiracy... well, I'm not sure what you'd expect.

If someone posts verifiable data that runs contrary to something Dr. Masters says (I've seen it happen) I think it is generally acknowledged and appreciated by the "pro-science" crowd as well as Dr. Masters himself. But coming here with one-liner "gotcha" questions and links to blogs of dubious distinction provokes a strong reaction because, well, there is a limit to everyone's patience...

Honestly, anti-AGW folks are generally "shouted down" with things like reports and charts and data. I have trouble feeling too sorry for people who make statements beyond their expertise and get corrected for it. That's the way the world works.



then why do you always add a + to the one-liner king???
Lets grab our pitch forks and our fire stakes and lets all chase the climate change deniers out of this blog and let it get back to harmonia.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
___________________________


MAJOR CALIFORNIA STORM



click on pic for bigger view

Beautiful graphic again! I know you belted out a few during the tropical season but this one is up there too. Sure looking to be wild up there. Great news for the skiers like myself and oldest two daughters. Just hope it sticks around by the time I go up there for a trip later this season!!!!
650. yoboi
Global Warming
“Global warming” refers to the global-average temperature increase that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more. But to many politicians and the public, the term carries the implication that mankind is responsible for that warming. This website describes evidence from my group’s government-funded research that suggests global warming is mostly natural, and that the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution.

Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. This assumption is rather easy for scientists since we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that the only way they can get their computerized climate models to produce the observed warming is with anthropogenic (human-caused) pollution. But they’re not going to find something if they don’t search for it. More than one scientist has asked me, “What else COULD it be?” Well, the answer to that takes a little digging… and as I show, one doesn’t have to dig very far.

But first let’s examine the basics of why so many scientists think global warming is manmade. Earth’s atmosphere contains natural greenhouse gases (mostly water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) which act to keep the lower layers of the atmosphere warmer than they otherwise would be without those gases. Greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation — the radiant heat energy that the Earth naturally emits to outer space in response to solar heating. Mankind’s burning of fossil fuels (mostly coal, petroleum, and natural gas) releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and this is believed to be enhancing the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect. As of 2008, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 40% to 45% higher than it was before the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800’s.

It is interesting to note that, even though carbon dioxide is necessary for life on Earth to exist, there is precious little of it in Earth’s atmosphere. As of 2008, only 39 out of every 100,000 molecules of air were CO2, and it will take mankind’s CO2 emissions 5 more years to increase that number by 1, to 40.

The “Holy Grail”: Climate Sensitivity Figuring out how much past warming is due to mankind, and how much more we can expect in the future, depends upon something called “climate sensitivity”. This is the temperature response of the Earth to a given amount of ‘radiative forcing’, of which there are two kinds: a change in either the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth, or in the infrared energy the Earth emits to outer space.

The ‘consensus’ of opinion is that the Earth’s climate sensitivity is quite high, and so warming of about 0.25 deg. C to 0.5 deg. C (about 0.5 deg. F to 0.9 deg. F) every 10 years can be expected for as long as mankind continues to use fossil fuels as our primary source of energy. NASA’s James Hansen claims that climate sensitivity is very high, and that we have already put too much extra CO2 in the atmosphere. Presumably this is why he and Al Gore are campaigning for a moratorium on the construction of any more coal-fired power plants in the U.S.

You would think that we’d know the Earth’s ‘climate sensitivity’ by now, but it has been surprisingly difficult to determine. How atmospheric processes like clouds and precipitation systems respond to warming is critical, as they are either amplifying the warming, or reducing it. This website currently concentrates on the response of clouds to warming, an issue which I am now convinced the scientific community has totally misinterpreted when they have measured natural, year-to-year fluctuations in the climate system. As a result of that confusion, they have the mistaken belief that climate sensitivity is high, when in fact the satellite evidence suggests climate sensitivity is low.

The case for natural climate change I also present an analysis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which shows that most climate change might well be the result of….the climate system itself! Because small, chaotic fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems can cause small changes in global average cloudiness, this is all that is necessary to cause climate change. You don’t need the sun, or any other ‘external’ influence (although these are also possible…but for now I’ll let others work on that). It is simply what the climate system does. This is actually quite easy for meteorologists to believe, since we understand how complex weather processes are. Your local TV meteorologist is probably a closet ’skeptic’ regarding mankind’s influence on climate.

Climate change — it happens, with or without our help.




is any of this true???? asking because i don't know.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Lets grab our peer-reviewed data and our scientific methods and lets all chase the climate change deniers out of this blog and let it get back to harmonia.



There, fixed it for ya.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Beautiful graphic again! I know you belted out a few during the tropical season but this one is up there too. Sure looking to be wild up there. Great news for the skiers like myself and oldest two daughters. Just hope it sticks around by the time I go up there for a trip later this season!!!!


nice to hear that from you, thanks..
Quoting schistkicker:



There, fixed it for ya.

Sorry I liked it the way it was. Thanks, but no thanks.
@ Yoboi #650:

It's not the PDO, no matter how much Roy Spencer wishes it were so.
wow.....those rainfall forecast are serious for northern cali! when is the last time rainfall of that magnitude happened there? what is this going to do to the sacremento valley, Ive seen those it could happen senarios on TWC, how much rainfall would if take for that to happen?
656. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:
@ Yoboi #650:

It's not the PDO, no matter how much Roy Spencer wishes it were so.



go to his site he says things alot differ than i see on here....and other people from nasa support him so to me i am confused...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE.. 7:50 PM EST UPDATED
______________________

MAJOR CALIFORNIA STORM

about the map
if you make the pic bigger...there is the overlap from rain (green to yellow) snow (gray to pink) and the over dashed colors, the brown dashed shade and the yellow dashed shade those are for different wind gust potential.. siting on top of the snow/and on top of the rain.

It took me nearly 3 hours to do this map for you guys...




click on pic for bigger view

May I ask how u make that kinda graphic? (BTW good job)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


nice to hear that from you, thanks..


That is really first class. I made it BIG and checked everything out, well done, thanks.

Quoting yoboi:



then why do you always add a to the one-liner king???


^^ Now that's some good ol' fashioned irony right there!

Could you ask that question in two lines please?

Splitting one sentence...

...into two lines doesn't count.

I don't know who you're talking about. I'm pretty sure every single post I 'd today has more than one line. But you know, on second thought - don't bother rephrasing your one-liner gotcha question. It's borderline "bickering" anyway... which is against the rules here.

Regardless, I'm flattered that you choose to track who I plus.

Now back to the weather (cue Jaws theme):





(EDITED to switch from the animation to the static water vapor image because it was killing my computer to scroll through the blog. Sorry folks if it was hitting you the same way. You can now click the static water vapor image above if you want the animation)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Chuuk

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.7N 154.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.9N 151.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Chuuk region
45 HRS: 5.3N 147.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
69 HRS: 6.1N 143.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island

Additional Information
=======================
Bopha will accelerate westward for the next 72 hours

Bopha will be upgraded to severe tropical storm within 24 hours

Cyclone will develop because it will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.5 after 24 hours
Quoting yoboi:



go to his site he says things alot differ than i see on here....and other people from nasa support him so to me i am confused...


He _does_ say a lot of things.
Most of which aren't actually supported by any sort of thorough review of the data-- it's much more of a 'what-could-be-true-if-you-focus-on-just-this-data set-and-ignore-the-other-dozen-that-disprove-the-h ypothesis', or 'what-would-be-true-if-you-start-from-bad-or-movin g-assumptions'. Neither of those is the hallmark of good science in practice.
662. yoboi
Quoting MrMixon:


^^ Now that's some good ol' fashioned irony right there!

Could you ask that question in two lines please?

Splitting one sentence...

...into two lines doesn't count.

I don't know who you're talking about. I'm pretty sure every single post I +'d today has more than one line. But you know, on second thought - don't bother rephrasing your one-liner gotcha question. It's borderline "bickering" anyway... which is against the rules here.

Regardless, I'm flattered that you choose to track who I plus.

Now back to the weather (cue Jaws theme):




your welcome i look at all things and see a trend....
Here's Florence's, as promised. Joyce's TCR may or may not come out tonight. If it doesn't, it'll be out with Kirk's tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Report: Tropical Storm Florence (AL062012)

Here is Bud's TCR from yesterday...

Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Bud (EP022012)
Quoting schistkicker:
@ Yoboi #650:

It's not the PDO, no matter how much Roy Spencer wishes it were so.
Quoting yoboi:



go to his site he says things alot differ than i see on here....and other people from nasa support him so to me i am confused...

The PDO is one of the natural cycles, or internal variability, between weather and climate that is related to heat energy already within the earth's land/atmosphere/ocean/cryosphere system moving about to different locations. It manifests itself in temperature record data typically as changes to sea surface temperatures in the Pacific (P) Ocean. Sometimes it changes on time scales of about a decade or longer (D), but not always. It is argued by many that it really isn't a true oscillation (O), either.
Because it is a manifestation of heat moving about the whole climate system, it is not the introduction or removal of heat energy. As such, it cannot be a cause of global warming, which by definition is the accumulation of heat across the global climate system (air/water/ice).
I want CO2 sensors on every caldera, PRONTO!

Then, I expect a comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to what is "deemed" normal, tied to Earths proximity to the sun, showing the difference between active and inactive volcanic periods, related to Earth's sun oscillation.
Quoting beell:
Is this a fair comparison? If so, how accurate would you rate the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlooks taken at 4 day intervals?


Not very good. The CPC maps frustrate the heck out of me yet if they favor warmth, they'll be posted a time or twenty.
667. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:


He _does_ say a lot of things.
Most of which aren't actually supported by any sort of thorough review of the data-- it's much more of a 'what-could-be-true-if-you-focus-on-just-this-data set-and-ignore-the-other-dozen-that-disprove-the-h ypothesis', or 'what-would-be-true-if-you-start-from-bad-or-movin g-assumptions'. Neither of those is the hallmark of good science in practice.



that's how i get confused he has alot of peer reviewd data and support from current nasa experts...and he also states he has never accepted any money from any fossil fuel companies...
668. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

The PDO is one of the natural cycles, or internal variability, between weather and climate that is related to heat energy already within the earth's land/atmosphere/ocean/cryosphere system moving about to different locations. It manifests itself in temperature record data typically as changes to sea surface temperatures in the Pacific (P) Ocean. Sometimes it changes on time scales of about a decade or longer (D), but not always. It is argued by many that it really isn't a true oscillation (O), either.
Because it is a manifestation of heat moving about the whole climate system, it is not the introduction or removal of heat energy. As such, it cannot be a cause of global warming, which by definition is the accumulation of heat across the global climate system (air/water/ice).



so is that why he says most of the warming is natural and not man made???
This is a weather forum. People can agree or disagree. But why throw barbs and insults at people you don't agree with, it's just plain childish.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Tuesday 27 November 2012

A transitional period for the MJO
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains weak and erratic as has been the pattern observed over the past few weeks. November tends to be a transitional period for the MJO, particularly when both the Pacific and Indian Oceans are within neutral phases.
Over the past week, an active near-equatorial trough with several transient lows led to above average convection over South-East Asia and Indonesia. A stronger than average northern flank of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) led to enhanced convection over most of the Melanesian countries to the east of New Guinea.
Although the MJO is not contributing to increased rainfall over northern Australia, a series of troughs sweeping across the continent will bring relief to current conditions, in particular over northern WA and the Northern Territory, with rainfall expected later this week. Further north, across the Maritime Continent, suppressed convection is forecast to develop over the next two weeks.
Most model forecasts suggest the MJO will remain weak and erratic over the coming fortnight, with no contribution to tropical weather. The MJO is as an eastward moving "pulse" of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days. It is the largest contributor to the variability of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) through its modulating effects on the active and break periods of the NAM.
See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO.
El Nino Southern Oscillation update
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues within neutral parameters in the equatorial Pacific. This pattern will likely continue until at least early next year.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) remain on the warm side of neutral with the NINO3.4 index, located in the central Pacific, at 0.46 C. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels through the southern winter and spring. The latest 30 day SOI to 24 November is 4.5.
See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.
Next update expected by 04 December 2012
Quoting yoboi:



so is that why he says most of the warming is natural and not man made???


I am not sure if Dr. Roy Spencer claims that most of the warming is natural. Even if he did, that relates in no way to my post, as I just told you exactly why warming cannot be from the PDO. Known natural forcings to the earth's climate system favor a fairly stable, or slightly cooling, global climate. I believe this has been mentioned - to you specifically - numerous times?
Quoting yoboi:



that's how i get confused he has alot of peer reviewd data and support from current nasa experts...and he also states he has never accepted any money from any fossil fuel companies...


Having "alot of peer review data" should not be confused with "having alot of peer review data in PDO causing climate change." He has very little, if any, that actually suggests this. The few analyses he has done on the subject didnt last long at all under scientific scrutiny. Who are these "NASA experts" that supposedly gave him this PDO-causes-climate-change data, anyway? Kinda sounds exaggerated or fabricated to this scientist.
Quoting yoboi:



....... i am confused...


Most of us have known that for many months now. It seems to be your "Steady State" as opposed to fluctuations due to normal variability.
672. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I am not sure if Dr. Roy Spencer claims that most of the warming is natural. Even if he did, that relates in no way to my post, as I just told you exactly why warming cannot be from the PDO. Known natural forcings to the earth's climate system favor a fairly stable, or slightly cooling, global climate. I believe this has been mentioned - to you specifically - numerous times?


Having "alot of peer review data" should not be confused with "having alot of peer review data in PDO causing climate change." He has very little, if any, that actually suggests this. The few analyses he has done on the subject didnt last long at all under scientific scrutiny. Who are these "NASA experts" that supposedly gave him this PDO-causes-climate-change data, anyway? Kinda sounds exaggerated or fabricated to this scientist.



go to his site and read some of his studies and books...also talks about tide funding that other people use to fund certain studies i am still reading what he has to say it's alot..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE.. 7:50 PM EST UPDATED
______________________

MAJOR CALIFORNIA STORM

about the map
if you make the pic bigger...there is the overlap from rain (green to yellow) snow (gray to pink) and the over dashed colors, the brown dashed shade and the yellow dashed shade those are for different wind gust potential.. siting on top of the snow/and on top of the rain.

It took me nearly 3 hours to do this map for you guys...




click on pic for bigger view


Even though I do not live on the west coast US, that is a great map and I enjoyed looking at it.
Here's a good Cliff Notes' summary of what Roy Spencer brings to the table regarding climate-change and its causes. This might be more productive reading for you, yoboi...

Link
675. yoboi
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Most of us have known that for many months now. It seems to be your "Steady State" as opposed to fluctuations due to normal variability.



thanks for the Gigg i can take the insults....i guess your another that won't use the bucket...
676. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:
Here's a good Cliff Notes' summary of what Roy Spencer brings to the table regarding climate-change and its causes. This might be more productive reading for you, yoboi...

Link



thanks
Quoting yoboi:



go to his site and read some of his studies and books...also talks about tide funding that other people use to fund certain studies i am still reading what he has to say it's alot..


I know plenty about him already. Seems like his track record should increase everyone's skepticism of his claims beyond that of usual, no?

Waited a decade to correct increasingly obvious errors with satellite-derived lower troposphere temperature data that had a major cooling bias.

Claims to refute decades of science and sophisticated models with a "1-box model" he created of the ocean-atmosphere system and he didn't even use his own model correctly.

It shouldn't be up to good, skeptical scientists to correct his major errors. So forgive me if I'm more skeptical of things he posts on his blog than I am that of virtually every meteorological and climatological organization in the world.
678. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:
Here's a good Cliff Notes' summary of what Roy Spencer brings to the table regarding climate-change and its causes. This might be more productive reading for you, yoboi...

Link


in that link they say that Gw has a finger print caused by humans does that mean a small amount is caused by humans?
679. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I know plenty about him already. Seems like his track record should increase everyone's skepticism of his claims beyond that of usual, no?

Waited a decade to correct increasingly obvious errors with satellite-derived lower troposphere temperature data that had a major cooling bias.

Claims to refute decades of science and sophisticated models with a "1-box model" he created of the ocean-atmosphere system and he didn't even use his own model correctly.

It shouldn't be up to good, skeptical scientists to correct his major errors. So forgive me if I'm more skeptical of things he posts on his blog than I am that of virtually every meteorological and climatological organization in the world.


that's why i am asking he is saying there is GW but it's not caused by humans in a large amount very minute....thanks for sharing your thoughts...
Click pic for loop..
Quoting yoboi:


in that link they say that Gw has a finger print caused by humans does that mean a small amount is caused by humans?


Actually, since global temperatures are rising when other natural processes would tend toward cooling temperatures, multiple recent studies attribute more than 100% of the observed warming to human activities.
Link
683. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:


Actually, since global temperatures are rising when other natural processes would tend toward cooling temperatures, multiple recent studies attribute more than 100% of the observed warming to human activities.
Link



why was co2 levels lower pre use of catalytic converters???? that confuses me...
Quoting Skyepony:
Click pic for loop..


I declared that a blob last night. Keep up with the program, Skye. :)

Quoting Skyepony:
Click pic for loop..
Heavens to Murgatroyd!! What's that? I was planning on going to Gulfstream on Saturday for opening day.
**** BREAKING NEWS ****


For the first time in 36 years, Tolbachik in Russia is erupting according to reports from Russia. KVERT, the volcano monitoring body for Kamchatka, released a bulletin describing a significant explosive eruption with the potential for ash explosions up to 10 km / 32,800 ft. With the many air routes across the northern Pacific, this eruption will need to be closely monitored for its impact on air travel over the eastern Siberian peninsula. The ash advisory from the Tokyo VAAC also mentions a report of ash at FL 330 (33,000 feet) that was spreading to the NNW. VolcanoDiscovery reported that seismicity had been creeping upwards around Tolbachik since at least early November as well. Trying to get information from some of the hastily-translated articles from Russia is, ahem, fun. One described the eruption as the “volcano’s top caldera is being filled with fresh and gushing lava” based on incandescence seen at the summit.


The last eruption of Tolbachik started in 1975 and was quite impressive, rating at least a VEI 4 with both explosive and effusive activity. However, that was a larger eruption than most over the last century at the Russian volcano and most are smaller VEI 2 eruptions. Interestingly, the 1975-76 was a mainly basaltic eruption (see above), the largest recorded in the northern Kamchatka peninsula — however, that activity did produce 13 km / 42,000 foot ash plumes as well during the creation of a series of cinder cones and a 15 square kilometer lava flow field.

Unfortunately, today’s passes by the Terra and Aqua satellite didn’t capture any plume – likely because the pass was too early, but some of the peninsula is obscured by clouds as well. However, this (Below) 2004 NASA Earth Observatory image shows the summit caldera at Tolbachik and its relative proximity to its more famous brethren, Bezymianny and Kliuchevskoi.



VONA/Kamchatkan and Northern Kuriles Volcanic Activity

Volcano: Plosky Tolbachik (CAVW #1000-24-)

Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Previous Aviation Color Code: orange

Issued: 20121127/2321Z
Source: KVERT
Notice Number: 2012-21

Volcano Location: 55.83 N, 160.39 E
Area: Kamchatka, Russia
Summit Elevation: 10118.8 ft (3085 m)

Prognosis of Volcanic Activity: Explosive eruption of the volcano began on November 27. Ash explosions up to 32,800 ft (10 km) a.s.l. could occur at any time. Ongoing activity could affect international and low-flying aircraft.

Volcanic Activity Summary: According to the data by observers from Kozyrevsk and Lazo Villadges, ash explosions and lava flows are noting at Tolbachinsky Dol, at the area of 1975 Severny Proryv (Northern vents) eruption. Probably a lava intrusions towards the summit caldera of Plosky Tolbachik volcano too but the volcano obscured by clouds at now. Ash fall was noted at Krasny Yar (35 km from Klyuchi Village to the west): a thickness of ash was about 4 cm.


Volcanic cloud height: no the data.

Other volcanic cloud information: no the data.

Remarks:

Additional information: Plosky Tolbachik and Ostry Tolbachik volcanoes compose a single large volcanic massif. The 1800 m diameter caldera with a depth of 450 m that has been formed in 1975 is nested at the summit of Plosky Tolbachik. Tolbachik volcano is located in the south-western sector of the Klyuchevskaya group of the volcanoes 63 km from Klyuchi and 343 km from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
Last eruption occurred on: 1975/6/28-1976/12/10
Quoting Grothar:


Under extreme conditions just to its north 80/90kt westerlies. Maybe a slight increase in moisture across mainland sfl.
Quoting Grothar:


I declared that a blob last night. Keep up with the program, Skye. :)


Looks like someone is going to get rain from your Blob.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Looks like someone is going to get rain from your Blob.
I will be looking for mudders after the past performances come in tomorrow.
BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi 2m
@RyanMaue has developed cfsv2 site on http://weatherbell.com that will show max snow cover.4 members Christmas week pic.twitter.com/ev2mB3en

JTWC is up to 50kts. Peak intensity now is 110kts.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 4.7N 154.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 154.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 4.9N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 5.0N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 5.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 5.3N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 6.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 7.8N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 9.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 154.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN
Still lookihng sloppy. The mid-level and low-level centers aren't quite aligned.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JTWC is up to 50kts. Peak intensity now is 110kts.


** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS BOPHA 1224 (1224) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC
00HR 4.8N 154.2E 998HPA 20M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 4.5N 151.2E 992HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 4.8N 147.7E 985HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 5.3N 143.9E 975HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 6.5N 140.1E 970HPA 38M/S
P+120HR 7.8N 136.5E 965HPA 40M/S=

---
still sitting at 80 knots (2 min sustained winds average) for 120 hours forecast period.

someone is going to be wrong.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still lookihng sloppy. The mid-level and low-level centers aren't quite aligned.



Why does that sound familiar?

Guessing the trade winds are quite high being close to the equator.
Quoting Dakster:


Even though I do not live on the west coast US, that is a great map and I enjoyed looking at it.


thank you...I'm happy you did
Quoting Doppler22:

May I ask how u make that kinda graphic? (BTW good job)


hi...back from work...

Well I use photoshop to do it...it takes me a while to make it look good like that then I take it to powerpoint to put up the heading, side boxes, scales and all the other little features
Quoting indianrivguy:


That is really first class. I made it BIG and checked everything out, well done, thanks.



thank you....it's worth the time spent doing it for these great feedbacks

oh dear...this is no good for places ahead like Philippines
New York's Hudson River Valley is about to close out one of it's driest Novembers on record, but the drought monitor doesn't seem too impressed yet. Of the three main NWS sites across the mid to upper Hudson Valley, two will likely see their diest November on record, and the other is currently ranked 4th on record.


I don't think we have enough lows...

The ECMWF, CMC, and GFS all have Valerie in the East Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in about 5 days. I refuse to trust them though.
UPDATE

San Francisco high winds..click pic for bigger view


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thank you...I'm happy you did


Nice map, tr. Looks like a lot of heavy wind.
Quoting hurricane23:


Under extreme conditions just to its north 80/90kt westerlies. Maybe a slight increase in moisture across mainland sfl.


Yes, but they are expected to decrease to 70/80kts.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ECMWF, CMC, and GFS all have Valerie in the East Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in about 5 days. I refuse to trust them though.


why...two of the best models are there?

is it because it's to far out in time?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


why...two of the best models are there?

is it because it's to far out in time?
they did the same with a system at the middle of November that stay cold core all the way didn`t even became an invest.
Quoting allancalderini:
they did the same with a system at the middle of November that stay cold core all the way didn`t even became an invest.


ohh I see. But the models can't just play cool like that
711. beell
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Evening, Aug, just got back in.

All in all, not too bad.

8-14 day on 10/24 verified pretty well.

10/28, possibly missed the mean position of the trough. Warm ridge/cold trough ended up farther east?
11/01, looks like a fail.
11/05, missed the cold anomaly over the Gulf Coast and SE and the warmer temps in the NW. Some might consider that a fail
11/09, pretty darn accurate.

Later.

Quoting Dakster:


Even though I do not live on the west coast US, that is a great map and I enjoyed looking at it.


I don't live on the west coast either but the fact that it is a big storm...encourages me to make a nice graph out of it...and thanks though
Talking about the roller coaster... I've read the following in several sources picking from AP:
"The mayor last week told a TV station that the coaster would make a “great tourist attraction.”
But the mayor now says that “was not the brightest comment.”"

I don't tend to criticize elected officials statements... but, what was he thinking? Was he sure it wasn't a bright comment? Besides the obvious quick decay from rusting and the several equally "bright" people who will try to swim and claim to the coaster, I was there a few days ago (is part of my job) and it is obvious that there are parts of the coaster that are weak and will collapse as soon as it rust a little bit more. In any case, is he really interested in promoting tourism based on tragedy? May be something is going on in NJ that end up developing a new human species that tend to appear in MTV but I don't really get this at all...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think we have enough lows...





Well there's going to be even fewer soon since the GFS has them merging into one tidy continent-sized package by mid-Thursday...

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE- Beyond the graphics
_____________________________

Hi everyone...My name is Max. I will become 20 this upcoming December and as you all know my passion is weather like many of us. Weather down into a graphic is the best thing I enjoy doing. I have done many graphics since 2006... but until this year I began publishing them here.

How do I gather the info displayed on the graphic?
Well, I go (most of the times) to NWS websites and from there I look at cities potentially affected by a upcoming storm from there I draw the line for possible impacts. The closer to potential damager the higher levels of weather they take under the color shading.

Just like this upcoming storm...places under yellow and pink are places for the most severe whether...also those under the dashed lines.

Remember...the shades are not 100% sure for happening but it is the best estimate I can come up with.
After I gather all info (sometimes also rom TWC) I put it down into a nice graphic...
I always try to make it look pretty (not just a dull 5 minute worth of time graphic) and most importantly...UNDERSTANDABLE FOR ALL OF YOU.

Also during the hurricane season I try to stay nice and understandable because the graph is not just for me to understand for for all the other interested fellas here.

I will keep going all through this winter posting graphic on potential winter storms until the next hurricane season begins and so on...I appreciate all the nice comments from you...


LOVE YOU ALL...


see it on my blog here
well. 2 days left of hurricane season 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
well. 2 days left of hurricane season 2012


It went by so fast.
THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
well. 2 days left of hurricane season 2012
i believe one day they will start our season May-15, and possibly include Dec-15. Even though we are in the active phase, year after year with so many storms could be a sign of things to come. The seasons should slow again, only to pick up more steam the next active phase. Do not know if I will be around long enough to find out..:)
Is the blog at peace now?
Is it safe to come out of my hiding hole? lol
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is the blog at peace now?
Is it safe to come out of my hiding hole? lol


No... until Feb 2...
don't look behind you when you come out though....lol
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is the blog at peace now?
Is it safe to come out of my hiding hole? lol
By all means...Whats happening besides the MJO bein wimpy..:)


someone can't wait 'til the season is over...2 AM TWO (now its the 1 AM TWO) is out...was out at midnight
Quoting hydrus:
i believe one day they will start our season May-15, and possibly include Dec-15. Even though we are in the active phase, year after year with so many storms could be a sign of things to come. The seasons should slow again, only to pick up more steam the next active phase. Do not know if I will be around long enough to find out..:)


do you think the active phase would end?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do you think the active phase would end?
Well the hyperactivity started in 1995. It usually lasts 30 or 40 years, then things wind down for about the same length of time. The thing is that the worlds climate is changing at such a rapid pace, the historical data from the past 150 years or so will have no statistical value...I have said it here before that statistics are only numbers that have no control over actual events.
Quoting hydrus:
By all means...Whats happening besides the MJO bein wimpy..:)

W.A is getting smacked by a very deep LPA.




Loop


Loop

Quoting hydrus:
Well the hyperactivity started in 1995. It usually lasts 30 or 40 years, then things wind down for about the same length of time. The thing is that the worlds climate is changing at such a rapid pace, the historical data from the past 150 years or so will have no statistical value...I have said it here before that statistics are only numbers that have no control over actual events.



look at these past three seasons...they are the top 3 third highest in tropical activity...

stunning
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



look at these past three seasons...they are the top 3 third highest in tropical activity...

stunning


Some of that is attributable to increased technology that was unavailable a couple decades ago.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Some of that is attributable to increased technology that was unavailable a couple decades ago.
our satellites were capable of detecting all tropical activity anywhere in the world back in 1992 Kori...Rollin fat tonight?..lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


Some of that is attributable to increased technology that was unavailable a couple decades ago.


thanks Kori..
Quoting AussieStorm:

W.A is getting smacked by a very deep LPA.




Loop


Loop

Big sucker..It is always funny to me to see a strong low spin clockwise..:)
Quoting hydrus:
our satellites were capable of detecting all tropical activity anywhere in the world back in 1992 Kori...Rollin fat tonight?..lol


I was referring to scatterometer and microwave data, which to my knowledge weren't in widespread (or even at all) use in 1992.
Quoting hydrus:
By all means...Whats happening besides the MJO bein wimpy..:)


El Niño—Southern Oscillation update
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues within neutral parameters in the equatorial Pacific. This pattern will likely continue until at least early next year.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) remain on the warm side of neutral with the NINO3.4 index, located in the central Pacific, at +0.46 °C. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels through the southern winter and spring. The latest 30 day SOI to 24 November is +4.5.












Quoting hydrus:
Big sucker..It is always funny to me to see a strong low spin clockwise..:)


Here is the latest obs image.
987.2mb @ Wed 13:19 WST
Quoting hydrus:
our satellites were capable of detecting all tropical activity anywhere in the world back in 1992 Kori...Rollin fat tonight?..lol


don't keep up the argue...we know what happens Hydrus
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was referring to scatterometer and microwave data, which to my knowledge weren't in widespread (or even at all) use in 1992.
I believe they would have named all the storms we had this year with or without microwave or scatterometer sat info..But that is just my opinion. How are you Kori? Something bothering you?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


don't keep up the argue...we know what happens Hydrus
Its all good..I know Kori fairly well..:)
Quoting AussieStorm:


El Niño—Southern Oscillation update
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues within neutral parameters in the equatorial Pacific. This pattern will likely continue until at least early next year.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) remain on the warm side of neutral with the NINO3.4 index, located in the central Pacific, at +0.46 °C. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels through the southern winter and spring. The latest 30 day SOI to 24 November is +4.5.












I think Nino has left and wont be back with any significant affects for the next 4 months.
Signing out..A blessed night to all..
Quoting AussieStorm:


whoa...over 40 mph winds there
Rarely does the release of a data-driven report on energy trends trigger front-page headlines around the world. That, however, is exactly what happened on November 12th when the prestigious Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) released this year's edition of its World Energy Outlook. In the process, just about everyone missed its real news, which should have set off alarm bells across the planet.

...

Of all the findings in the 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the one that merits the greatest international attention is the one that received the least. Even if governments take vigorous steps to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the report concluded, the continuing increase in fossil fuel consumption will result in "a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6 degrees C."

This should stop everyone in their tracks. Most scientists believe that an increase of 2 degrees Celsius is about all the planet can accommodate without unimaginably catastrophic consequences: sea-level increases that will wipe out many coastal cities, persistent droughts that will destroy farmland on which hundreds of millions of people depend for their survival, the collapse of vital ecosystems, and far more. An increase of 3.6 degrees C essentially suggests the end of human civilization as we know it.


http://www.salon.com/2012/11/27/the_world_energy_ reports_scariest_findings/
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Rarely does the release of a data-driven report on energy trends trigger front-page headlines around the world. That, however, is exactly what happened on November 12th when the prestigious Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) released this year's edition of its World Energy Outlook. In the process, just about everyone missed its real news, which should have set off alarm bells across the planet.

...

Of all the findings in the 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the one that merits the greatest international attention is the one that received the least. Even if governments take vigorous steps to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the report concluded, the continuing increase in fossil fuel consumption will result in "a long-term average global temperature increase of 3.6 degrees C."

This should stop everyone in their tracks. Most scientists believe that an increase of 2 degrees Celsius is about all the planet can accommodate without unimaginably catastrophic consequences: sea-level increases that will wipe out many coastal cities, persistent droughts that will destroy farmland on which hundreds of millions of people depend for their survival, the collapse of vital ecosystems, and far more. An increase of 3.6 degrees C essentially suggests the end of human civilization as we know it.


http://www.salon.com/2012/11/27/the_world_energy_ reports_scariest_findings/


A rise of 3.6C would cause a lot of problems, but probably not the end of civilization as we know it.

That happens once we start approaching 5C. The worst case projections currently call for a 6C increase by 2100. The planet would become quite an unpleasant place with that kind of rise.
Hard to believe this is only going to be at 10N in five days:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Chuuk

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.8N 153.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 5.1N 150.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Chuuk region
48 HRS: 5.6N 146.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
72 HRS: 6.5N 141.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island

Additional Information
=====================

Bopha will move westward at the same speed for the next 72 hours

Bopha will be upgraded to a severe tropical storm within 24 hours

Cyclone will develop because is will stay in high sea surface temperature region

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.5 after 24 hours
just found this article on griefing in videogames. sounds like a good description of some of the what goes on here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Griefer
Quoting Xyrus2000:


A rise of 3.6C would cause a lot of problems, but probably not the end of civilization as we know it.

That happens once we start approaching 5C. The worst case projections currently call for a 6C increase by 2100. The planet would become quite an unpleasant place with that kind of rise.

As wealth increases in the "third world" it is hard to imagine that its population of well over half of the global total is not going to want all the consumer items which are available in the industrialised world, as they themselves will very soon be "industrialised."
If only 2% of the Chinese now have cars what will happen when 50%+ have cars, along with all sorts of other consumer goods?
Families who at present live in rural villages are rapidly moving to urban sprawls, young people who worked on the land, are now traveling up to a hundred miles to work in offices and factories, daily.
The rise in pollution and greenhouse gases is inevitable. Most estimates of global temperature rises as a result of human activity are probably a gross underestimation.
So far very few of the predictions from a few years ago have not been found to be inaccurate. Just look at the Arctic ice melting predictions, which have gone from a steady decline over decades, to virtual disappearance within the next few years.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Rain totals through 60-hours from NAM-4km are 6-10'' over NorCal, mostly related to elevation. Peaks squeeze it out http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273655694933254 144/photo/1/large
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Mt. Shasta will get a ton of snow during the successive waves of onshore flow into NorCal, maps shows all new snow. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273655229726195 712/photo/1/large
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

California storm will be historical for rain totals. Late-autumn Bering Sea blocks + Gulf of Alaska lows focus downstream atmospheric river
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
18:00 PM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Chuuk

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.9N 152.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 5.1N 149.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
45 HRS: 5.6N 146.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
69 HRS: 6.5N 141.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
National Weather Service Tiyan, Guam
========================================

The TROPICAL STORM WATCH has been cancelled for Losap and the Chuuk Lagoon Oslands in Chuuk State.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is now in effect for Poluwat in Chuuk State and for Satawal in Yap State.

A TYPHOON WATCH is now in effect for Woleai in Yap State.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is now in effect for Faraulep in Yap State.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING remains in effect for Lukunor and the southern Mortlocks in Chuuk State.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


A rise of 3.6C would cause a lot of problems, but probably not the end of civilization as we know it.

That happens once we start approaching 5C. The worst case projections currently call for a 6C increase by 2100. The planet would become quite an unpleasant place with that kind of rise.


A 6C increase would probably be catastrophic, but people don't 'get it'. A lot of people, politicians included, would simply shrug and say something like "6C is less than the temperature difference between South Carolina and Florida, so what's the big deal?"
Good Morning/evening everyong. A frosty 40 degrees today.
Thanks for all the comments folks, it's been civil.

I've experienced climate change all my life, I was born in 1950, part of my life was in a rural area, listened to the old dudes talk about climate change back in the Thirties and forties, lots of interesting stuff.
Everything from droughts, floods tornado's and being told to go plow the fields when it was snowing in Mid-May.
I've found predicting weather, reasons for weather conditions, and future science on weather is controversial, and always will be...
My belief is the Weather is in Gods hand........

Thank you for all of your comments.

Trunkmonkey
Quoting Xyrus2000:


A rise of 3.6C would cause a lot of problems, but probably not the end of civilization as we know it.

That happens once we start approaching 5C. The worst case projections currently call for a 6C increase by 2100. The planet would become quite an unpleasant place with that kind of rise.


Not if you like a lot of wide-open uninhabitable desert.

I would think the million or so cave-dwellers left on the planet will find the place very quiet. Most of the plant and animal species will have died off. In the fading winter afternoon light when it is cool enough to come to the surface, they'll compare their desolate surroundings with the pictures of a verdant Earth in their few old books and they'll curse our greed.
So here is my take on climate change.

It's real!
Some man-made Carbon! CO.
Solar flares
Earthquakes, changing to axis of the earth
Magnetic Polar changes
Valcano's
Government intervention, H.A.A.R.P

Many pieces to the puzzle, many answers, but were not going to change the weather, no matter what we do on earth.
759. VR46L
Bopha Becoming rather impressive

RGB gif


Rainbow gif
Has been raining all night morning feels wonderful to have days like before.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
So here is my take on climate change.

It's real!
Some man-made Carbon! CO.
Solar flares
Earthquakes, changing to axis of the earth
Magnetic Polar changes
Valcano's
Government intervention, H.A.A.R.P

Many pieces to the puzzle, many answers, but were not going to change the weather, no matter what we do on earth.
There are "many pieces to the puzzle". That much is for sure. But some of those pieces are large, thoroughly researched, scientifically valid, and well supported (anthropogenic CO2). Others have a verifiably small role in the current observed changes (volcanoes, axial changes). And still others have absolutely no verifiable or logical basis whatsoever (government intervention, HAARP). Occam's Razor says that among competing hypotheses, the one that makes the fewest assumptions--that is, the one that's simplest--is probably the one you should go with.
762. beell
Quoting hydrus:
our satellites were capable of detecting all tropical activity anywhere in the world back in 1992 Kori...Rollin fat tonight?..lol


Excluding storms that met tropical cyclone criteria by reconnaissance confirmation or ship reports it was probably in the late 80's or early 90's before storms were routinely classified by satellite interpretation only.

A quick trip down memory lane as newer technology shifted the way NHC named/classified storms. These few examples are far from complete-but you may get the general idea. And it is the name that goes into the record books. Not just a sat view of a "circulation".

1977 Evelyn
...The upper atmospheric circulation pattern became more favorable for development and satellite pictures indicated that a surface depression probably formed on October 13, about 400 miles south of Bermuda. As the depression headed toward Bermuda, ships located in the zone of strong pressure gradient to the east of the circulation center encountered gale force winds early on October 14. The 'best track' indicates that Evelyn became a tropical storm at this time. However, up to this point there was no data from the vicinity of the center to confirm the tropical character of the storm. Such confirmation was provided when the center passed over Bermuda early on October 14...

1989 Chantal
...Based on satellite analysts using the Dvorak technique, Tropical Storm Chantal likely formed 310 n mi southeast of Galveston, Tx at 0600 UTC on the 31st. However, interpretation of infrared satellite imagery during the night can be misleading and NHC decided to wait for reconnaissance confirmation before formally upgrading the system...

1991 Tropical Storm Ana
...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER...IDENTIFIED AS A 1008 MB LOW THIS MORNING BY AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE...IS NOW EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION. TSAF HAS
CLASSIFIED THE SYSTEM AS A DVORAK SCALE 2.0 AND SAB HAS IT AT 1.5.
BUOY 41001 REPORTED 34 KT WINDS...GUSTING TO 42 KT AND A 1005.7
MB PRESSURE AT 1900 UTC. BASED ON THESE REPORTS WE ARE STARTING THIS
SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM ANA...


1993 Tropical Storm Brett (TD 3)
...A SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. TWO BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER
OF CONVECTION. WITH THESE DEVELOPMENTS AND THE TSAF AND SAB
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVING REACHED 2.0...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE...

Quoting Xyrus2000:


A rise of 3.6C would cause a lot of problems, but probably not the end of civilization as we know it.

That happens once we start approaching 5C. The worst case projections currently call for a 6C increase by 2100. The planet would become quite an unpleasant place with that kind of rise.


Mornin' folks!

Evenin' Mate!

Think this through... civilization as "who" knows it? One of the first things aside from drought rearranging the planets breadbaskets, will be sea level rise. The displacement of hundreds of millions of people into areas already occupied and stressed for sustenance will be deadly. All our coastal cities will be inundated.. just where are all the condo dwellers going to go? We have reached about the maximum amount of humans that we can successfully feed year to year. Drought will begin the Darwinian process of killing millions through starvation, rising sea levels will displace millions, causing riots and wars. Powerful nations will block their borders, and perhaps move in and take what others cannot protect.. chaos at a monstrous level...

prepare yourselves.. the zombie apocalypse is just around the corner
Quoting indianrivguy:


Mornin' folks!

Evenin' Mate!

Think this through... civilization as "who" knows it? One of the first things aside from drought rearranging the planets breadbaskets, will be sea level rise. The displacement of hundreds of millions of people into areas already occupied and stressed for sustenance will be deadly. All our coastal cities will be inundated.. just where are all the condo dwellers going to go? We have reached about the maximum amount of humans that we can successfully feed year to year. Drought will begin the Darwinian process of killing millions through starvation, rising sea levels will displace millions, causing riots and wars. Powerful nations will block their borders, and perhaps move in and take what others cannot protect.. chaos at a monstrous level...

prepare yourselves.. the zombie apocalypse is just around the corner

It's people like you, that turn people like me into Raging Denialists.

Much easier not to think about it at all.

:):))
Mornin' Mr. Pottery, top of the day to you sir!
Chance of Rain for WPB on Saturday go from 70% to now 0% what????????????????????????????????
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Chance of Rain for WPB on Saturday go from 70% to now 0% what????????????????????????????????


I just looked at West Palm... they gave a % for Friday, and Sunday.. but not Saturday...

I have an outdoor nature event in Sat.. NO RAIN !!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Mr. Pottery, top of the day to you sir!

Greetings, Sir.
A lovely morning here with grey sky and showers and birdsong.

Unfortunately, I have to get busy.
Laters >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Gray and chilly down on da bayou in Pensacola.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Mornin' folks!

Evenin' Mate!

Think this through... civilization as "who" knows it? One of the first things aside from drought rearranging the planets breadbaskets, will be sea level rise. The displacement of hundreds of millions of people into areas already occupied and stressed for sustenance will be deadly. All our coastal cities will be inundated.. just where are all the condo dwellers going to go? We have reached about the maximum amount of humans that we can successfully feed year to year. Drought will begin the Darwinian process of killing millions through starvation, rising sea levels will displace millions, causing riots and wars. Powerful nations will block their borders, and perhaps move in and take what others cannot protect.. chaos at a monstrous level...

prepare yourselves.. the zombie apocalypse is just around the corner


Pretty good summation. I'd probably substitute "billions" where you have "millions" but not going to argue trivialities this morning.

Anyone who doesn't think this will be absolutely horrible in every way imaginable hasn't thought it through. The conditions that civilization requires perch on the tiniest of twigs and a hurricane approaches.
Morning/Evening!

Weather statistics show the weather IS different on the weekends. Why? Well I can tell you it isn't due to solar flares, earthquakes, axial tilt, volcanoes or polar weather patterns. I'm still in the air on conspiracy theories. ...BRAINS....
Don't believe me? Crunch the rainfall numbers for yourself.
When leap day comes, it doesn't move weekend weather to Mondays or Fridays. Holidays are different too, though I don't know aboot Canadian thanksgiving, grin.
No, it is due to human activity and travel patterns. We caused the Ozone hole that has changed incoming and outgoing radiation levels globally. There were measurable differences in the atmosphere when all planes were regionally grounded on 9-11. Urban heat island effects make weather temperatures more extreme locally. Pavement and impervious surfaces increase both peak flood elevations and droughts due to rapid runoff and less infiltration. Even black roofing tiles instead of light colored ones change the temperature of your home and heating bills. At local, state, regional, and global levels, Humans change the weather.

The 'we can't change the weather' arguement isn't true. We do change it everyday.
Good morning, Gang.

Some generous rainfall amounts over KY yesterday.



And looking ahead for the next five days, the HPC suggests very dry over the heartland but deluge like conditions for much of the Pacific Northwest.

Quoting indianrivguy:


Mornin' folks!

Evenin' Mate!

Think this through... civilization as "who" knows it? One of the first things aside from drought rearranging the planets breadbaskets, will be sea level rise. The displacement of hundreds of millions of people into areas already occupied and stressed for sustenance will be deadly. All our coastal cities will be inundated.. just where are all the condo dwellers going to go? We have reached about the maximum amount of humans that we can successfully feed year to year. Drought will begin the Darwinian process of killing millions through starvation, rising sea levels will displace millions, causing riots and wars. Powerful nations will block their borders, and perhaps move in and take what others cannot protect.. chaos at a monstrous level...

prepare yourselves.. the zombie apocalypse is just around the corner


Only two things I'd disagree with you on:

1. Technical point: We haven't even come close to reaching the amount of people we can feed. From food waste, to meat eating, to horrible farming practices, we could feed a lot more.

2. It isn't Darwinian any more than stepping on an ant hill helps surviving ants to be stronger. Darwinian implies that adaptation is possible and the strong have an edge. This is slaughter.
Quoting percylives:


Pretty good summation. I'd probably substitute "billions" where you have "millions" but not going to argue trivialities this morning.

Anyone who doesn't think this will be absolutely horrible in every way imaginable hasn't thought it through. The conditions that civilization requires perch on the tiniest of twigs and a hurricane approaches.


How succinct.. well said.
Two years do not make a climatic trend but:

Last year to date (1/1/11-11/26/11) in the US.

25,424 new Daily Temperature Highs
9,147 new Daily Temperature Lows

This year to date (1/1/12-11/26/12) in the US.

32,102 new Daily Temperature Highs
6,213 new Daily Temperature Lows

Link

Have a warm day.
Quoting schistkicker:


Actually, since global temperatures are rising when other natural processes would tend toward cooling temperatures, multiple recent studies attribute more than 100% of the observed warming to human activities.
Link


Is it mathematicaly possible to have a value greater than 100% ?
Big Picture:

click on image for animation
Yesterday's rainfall:

Quoting trunkmonkey:
So here is my take on climate change.

It's real!
Some man-made Carbon! CO.
Solar flares
Earthquakes, changing to axis of the earth
Magnetic Polar changes
Valcano's
Government intervention, H.A.A.R.P

Many pieces to the puzzle, many answers, but were not going to change the weather, no matter what we do on earth.


Bold part is true.

None of the other things you listed are large enough to matter over time scales of less than millions of years.

The poles have only shifted a maximum of a few feet in the modern record, most of it during the Chile earthquake in the 1960's, the Boxing Day Tsunami event, and of course the Japan quake event. In order to effect climate in a noticeable way the poles would need to shift by at least 50 miles or so. I'm not going to say it's impossible, but I don't think the Earth itself is capable of generating an event that would cause such a large change in the axis. Even a meteor impact would need to be incredibly large indeed, and hit at just the right angle, and by the time you get to impacts that big, probably everything would die from the impact itself, and climate wouldn't matter. It would probably take something at least the size of Ceres to accomplish this.


Volcanoes don't cause significant warming, except in extremely rare cases where they may happen to hit a coal vein or oil field during their eruption and burn it up, which has happened before in geologic history. Such is a very rare occurrence when considering any scale significant enough to matter for global climate. The more likely scenario is the amount of Sulfur and other particles it puts up more than offsets the CO2 it releases, and actually causes cooling.

780. VR46L
Quoting StormPro:


Is it mathematicaly possible to have a value greater than 100% ?


I don't believe it is either Mathematically or Scientifically possible......


Anyways the Caribbean looks more interesting than it has in a month ...if it was August or September it sure would be interesting lol

Rainbow Image
Quoting greentortuloni:


Only two things I'd disagree with you on:

1. Technical point: We haven't even come close to reaching the amount of people we can feed. From food waste, to meat eating, to horrible farming practices, we could feed a lot more.

2. It isn't Darwinian any more than stepping on an ant hill helps surviving ants to be stronger. Darwinian implies that adaptation is possible and the strong have an edge. This is slaughter.


I think we have... We "can" and "do" produce enough food right this minute, but, IMO, that is about to change as drought rearranges food supplies. We lose some 5 million a year to starvation, not including malnourishment. Poverty is the killer here, and the reasons are generally political. This will only get worse as the "haves" protect what they have from the "have nots." All this will be exacerbated by the altered weather patterns.

2012 World Hunger

The world produces enough food to feed everyone. World agriculture produces 17 percent more calories per person today than it did 30 years ago, despite a 70 percent population increase. This is enough to provide everyone in the world with at least 2,720 kilocalories (kcal) per person per day according to the most recent estimate that we could find.(FAO 2002, p.9). The principal problem is that many people in the world do not have sufficient land to grow, or income to purchase, enough food.

Remember, these are 2002 numbers.. and are the most current I could find.

The rapidly changing weather dynamics will force changes and choices that looking ahead at them, I am glad the decision is not mine to make. Lots of people are hungry despite our "abundance."

In round numbers there are 7 billion people in the world. Thus, with an estimated 925 million hungry people in the world, 13.1 percent, or almost 1 in 7 people are hungry.

check out this graph;



Not a rosy future for a LOT of folks.

StormPro
Is it mathematicaly possible to have a value greater than 100% ?

If a power plant releases 10 tons of Carbon one year, and 25 tons of carbon the next year. What % increase is that? 150% That is more than 100 percent mathematically.

So if CO2 increases 10 units over all, and humans are responsible for a 25 units increase. How much of the increase are humans responsible for?
If other parts of the environment produce 15 units less, our fraction of the increase can be more than all of the total overall change.
http://youtu.be/Xzb7CXokqFU
Quoting VR46L:


I don't believe it is either Mathematically or Scientifically possible......<BR>

Anyways the Caribbean looks more interesting than it has in a month ...if it was August or September it sure would be interesting lol

Rainbow Image


Interesting blob for sure...Gro named it as such yesterday so don't attack me lol. That is the type of over done alarmist side of this discussion that gets people so insensed...please, both sides, stick to facts and not over blown emotions. 45 and cloudy here in NOLA
Quoting biff4ugo:
StormPro
Is it mathematicaly possible to have a value greater than 100% ?

If a power plant releases 10 tons of Carbon one year, and 25 tons of carbon the next year. What % increase is that? 150% That is more than 100 percent mathematically.

So if CO2 increases 10 units over all, and humans are responsible for a 25 units increase. How much of the increase are humans responsible for?
If other parts of the environment produce 15 units less, our fraction of the increase can be more than all of the total overall change.


Understood. Point taken but in the use over "over 100%' in terms of blame, causation, no you cannot have more than 100%. You cannot kill someone more than 100%, you cannot blame someone more than 100%. I was questioning the statement in the manner in which it was used sir
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 28 Nov 2012 06:00 to Thu 29 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 27 Nov 2012 21:52
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for the western coastal areas of the Central Mediterranean area mainly for excessive rainfall and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Quite active period including convective weather is forecast especially over the Central Mediterranean and around the Alpine range. A deep trough will stretch from Scandinavia into the western half of Mediterranean, undergoing a slow cut-off process near its southern base. A short-wave will rotate around the base towards north/northeast, situated at the exit region of mid/upper tropospheric jet-streak. Strong forcing will contribute to the cyclogenesis over the Ligurian Sea. A quasi-stationary warm front will stretch from Austria into Poland, while the cold front will rapidly move over the Central Mediterranean. Here, widespread DMC activity is forecast. Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry or stable.

DISCUSSION

... Central Mediterranean area ...

Deepening surface low will contribute to the strengthening southwesterly to southerly low-level flow, advecting moister airmass towards north. Strong forcing, in conjuction to the falling mid-tropospheric heights will contribute to the build-up of latent instability, which should stay rather marginal (apart from the southern half of the area, where more abundant LL moisture will be present). Perpendicular flow to the western coastal areas (of the Ligurian, Tyrrhenian, Adriatic and Ionian seas) will contribute to low-level ascent, that could concentrate the redevelopment of new cells of a parallel-stratiform MCS in a certain location. Subsequent training pattern in any of these areas identified by Level 1 could result in excessive precipitation. Especially in the northern areas, stratiform rain will likely dominate, but embedded convection could greatly increase the precipitation rates. Threat will shift towards southeast as the forecast period ensues and as the cooler and drier airmass spreads behind the progressing cold-front. Also, isolated tornado event is not ruled out with the strong LLS/DLS and low LCLs during this setup. So far, Level 1 seems to be enough because of the general lack of very high LL moisture content and also quick translation of the mid-level trough, which should not allow for very prolonged heavy rainfall.
http://www.estofex.org/
Footage of Monster Tornado That Struck Taranto, Italy; Causing 20 Injuries and 1 Death

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Violent Tornado!!! RT@Thunderlady70: RT@onweeronline: Tornado hits Italy: 20 wounded and 1 death #tornado #Italia http://www.onweer-online.nl/forum/topic/36676/onst uimig-weer-middenzuid-europa-en-balkan/376547/#mes sage376538 …


Hunting a man-eating croc in South Florida





By CURTIS MORGAN

Wildlife biologist Joe Wasilewski has hauled many scaly creatures out of South Florida lakes, canals and marshes over the years.

But the snappish four-footer he snared at the Redland Fruit & Spice Park was an unsettling surprise. It was a young crocodile, but not the typically timid native species. This was a Nile croc, infamous for its appetite for humans and savage attacks on wildebeest and other large animals along African rivers and watering holes.

The capture late last year appears to have been the first sighting — at least officially — of a Nile croc in the wilds of Florida. It wasn’t the last. In April, a botanist photographed a second Nile of similar size on a Krome Avenue canal bank, also in the Redland community south of Miami. After eluding capture for months, that croc is now in hiding, whereabouts unknown. A report of a third, caught in the same area three years ago, has surfaced since.

snip

“Nile crocodiles live at the same latitude in Africa that alligators do here, so watch out if they get established,” he said.

790. VR46L
Quoting StormPro:


Interesting blob for sure...Gro named it as such yesterday so don't attack me lol. That is the type of over done alarmist side of this discussion that gets people so insensed...please, both sides, stick to facts and not over blown emotions. 45 and cloudy here in NOLA


Gosh am I that bad ?LOL... I thought I only got like that when folk belittle me or folk I like .I fall into, the over emotional side of things and can get quite hurt ...Yeah all credit to Gro he is the blobmeister

anyways Gro's blob looking good in water vapour image.

Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Here is the @youtube link of the Huge Tornado in Taranto, Italy (November 28, 2012): http://youtu.be/a-wkjemVZJ4 via
Quoting VR46L:


Gosh am I that bad ?LOL... I thought I only got like that when folk belittle me or folk I like .I fall into, the over emotional side of things and can get quite hurt ...Yeah all credit to Gro he is the blobmeister

anyways Gro's blob looking good in water vapour image.



Smiles...nothing was aimed at you!Just wanted to give the ol' man credit. Gro can get defensive when his morning geritol kicks in LOL
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Big Picture:

click on image for animation

would be be talking about Cesar soon
794. VR46L
Quoting StormPro:


Smiles...nothing was aimed at you!Just wanted to give the ol' man credit. Gro can get defensive when his morning geritol kicks in LOL



:) LOL
Quoting Luisport:
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Here is the @youtube link of the Huge Tornado in Taranto, Italy (November 28, 2012): http://youtu.be/a-wkjemVZJ4 via
Pretty amazing:

Quoting Neapolitan:
Pretty amazing:

They expect more tornados next days! Now Venice in danger!
Quoting yoboi:



why was co2 levels lower pre use of catalytic converters???? that confuses me...


The link I posted doesn't mention anything about catalytic converters-- that's a non sequitur. I'm afraid I'm confused about your confusion.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I am not sure if Dr. Roy Spencer claims that most of the warming is natural. Even if he did, that relates in no way to my post, as I just told you exactly why warming cannot be from the PDO. Known natural forcings to the earth's climate system favor a fairly stable, or slightly cooling, global climate. I believe this has been mentioned - to you specifically - numerous times?


Having "alot of peer review data" should not be confused with "having alot of peer review data in PDO causing climate change." He has very little, if any, that actually suggests this. The few analyses he has done on the subject didnt last long at all under scientific scrutiny. Who are these "NASA experts" that supposedly gave him this PDO-causes-climate-change data, anyway? Kinda sounds exaggerated or fabricated to this scientist.


@670 Scott, THANK YOU!!! Appreciate your voice of scientific reason.
Quoting StormPro:


Is it mathematicaly possible to have a value greater than 100% ?


If you think it's not mathematically possible, please hire me as your accountant. I'll make sure that your revenues never increase more than 100% in any given year by increasing your outlays... into my pocket.

Climate isn't a person you're murdering. It's a system with inputs and outputs. If natural variations outside the CO2 system would suggest cooling, and it's not cooling, then that warming signal due to anthropogenic CO2 would, necessarily, account for enough warming to overcome that cooling trend PLUS the observed warming. Thus greater than 100%.

Which you'd know if you'd looked at that link I posted, which referred to peer-reviewed datasets that prove this. Cute word games vs. data? Pretty obvious what a scientist would pick.
Quoting percylives:


Pretty good summation. I'd probably substitute "billions" where you have "millions" but not going to argue trivialities this morning.

Anyone who doesn't think this will be absolutely horrible in every way imaginable hasn't thought it through. The conditions that civilization requires perch on the tiniest of twigs and a hurricane approaches.

It will be a complete breakdown of civilization when the coffee, tea, cocoa, grain (bread & beer) & grape harvests start being affected by the stresses of climate change.

Coffee and tea, in particular, are important because of the caffeine which could very well be the reason modern civilization exists at all.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Good morning, Gang.

Some generous rainfall amounts over KY yesterday.



And looking ahead for the next five days, the HPC suggests very dry over the heartland but deluge like conditions for much of the Pacific Northwest.



That HPC image is incredible. Now if only the jet stream would move south and spread some of that precip love across the rest of the US. The Northern Sierras and Cascades do a good job blocking/making an eastern rain shadow. Good for the ski resorts out West though.
Quoting beell:
Is this a fair comparison? If so, how accurate would you rate the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlooks taken at 4 day intervals?

(Click any graphic for full image)


Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 10/24-Valid 11/01 through 11/07.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/01 through 11/07.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 10/28-Valid 11/05 through 11/11.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/05 through 11/11.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/01-Valid 11/09 through 11/15.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/09 through 11/15.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/05-Valid 11/13 through 11/19.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/13 through 11/19.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/09-Valid 11/17 through 11/23.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/17 through 11/23.


NCEP/NCAR Daily Composites
CPC 6-10 & 8-14 Day Data & Graphics Archive



They actually fared quite well if you ask me The only real only two noticeable differences were the below average anomalies in the Southeast U.S. that were not picked up in the 11/13-11/19 outlook.

Also the previous forecast 11/09-11/15 did not pick up on the cool anomalies over the Rockies, outside of that they show a good bit of accuracy.
Quoting calkevin77:


That HPC image is incredible. Now if only the jet stream would move south and spread some of that precip love across the rest of the US. The Northern Sierras and Cascades do a good job blocking/making an eastern rain shadow. Good for the ski resorts out West though.



Indeed! Very good snows for those resorts. In fact, my two oldest girls are going on a little trip with me in a couple months. Sorta like a girls get away weekend. If they get that much snow now, good chance that much of that will still be around. Certainly what I'm hoping!!

But I've seen the HPC put out those bright colors before with tropical systems, but it's been a while since it's been hinting at 10 plus inches elsewhere. Gonna be interesting out there...that is for sure. And yes, we need to get that precip on the leeward side of those ranges to help out the rest of the drought-ridden plain states. Definitely so.
Some people on the internet must be quite a failure in life to want to be such a know it all online. I have a plan ...everyone, state facts, not cherry picked ideas and manipulated statictics. Both sides of the AGW "argument" (I would have loved to say discussion but......)use little bits of an entire data set, study or hypothosis to argue, scream and complain about the other side. Jesus people! Put your collective heads together and brainstorm a viable solution instead of just bi%^hing and fingerpointing. It would be nice and productive to try to come up with a solution (instead of using evil electricity to say we need to do away with all fossil fuels) instead of wasting all the effort in bashing people and their point of view. Temp dropping....43 here in NOLA. Have a nice day!

(P.S. I know I have been guilty of jabbing others too so I am admitting my guilt and asking for forgivness)
Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue%u200F@RyanMaue

California storm will be historical for rain totals. Late-autumn Bering Sea blocks Gulf of Alaska lows focus downstream atmospheric river


Hey Luisport,
I see your keeping up with the storm and thats great,
But who is this " RyanMaue@RyanMaue " ?
806. etxwx
Quoting indianrivguy:


The principal problem is that many people in the world do not have sufficient land to grow, or income to purchase, enough food.


Good morning all...

Good post indianrivguy...I snipped it just to accent the bolded sentence because this directly addresses something I was reading last night. In many parts of the world the arable land is the coastal land. When sea level rises, that land is gone. Our midwestern breadbasket may be able to adapt (up to a point) with different crops and agricultural methods, but many developing countries will not have that option. Most do not have the resources to build dikes and sea gates like the Netherlands. The land that feeds much of the population will be in the ocean.

As you said, not a rosy future...
Quoting pcola57:


Hey Luisport,
I see your keeping up with the stormand thats great,
But who is this " RyanMaue‏@RyanMaue " ?
it's my favourite meteo guy from weatherbell
Oh..cool..thanks 'cause I see you quote him alot..
Is the blog sloooow for anyone else here?
I'm having trouble posting anything.. :(
Quoting pcola57:
Is the blog sloooow for anyone else here?
I'm having trouble posting anything.. :(

Slow here...waiting for the ban hammer to drop on me once more LOL...46 and still cloudy in NOLA
indeed. i mean, the PDO is a decadal oscillation. and it's just that, an oscillation; a swing up and a swing down, with a period of a few decades, around an average. an equilibrium. the PDO doesn't cause a warming trend measurable over 100 years. that's caused by more energy being put into the system, unless you want to argue there's some unknown natural oscillation that operates over a 200 year or so cycle, increasing temperature almost a full degree C and then dropping it the same, which i would love to see evidence of. i mean, we see no such thing in the proxy record (tree rings, ice cores etc) at all, but anything's possible.

pointing to the PDO as the culprit is like me pointing to my pregnant wife's belly getting bigger and bigger over the course of nine months, and arguing 'no, it's not a baby, it's just that her stomach gets full after she eats dinner and then shrinks back after she's done digesting'.

Quoting schistkicker:
@ Yoboi #650:

It's not the PDO, no matter how much Roy Spencer wishes it were so.
49 and cloudy here..Stormpro have you been bad today?..LOL.. :)

My local WU weather


Webcam from my area..




Quoting pcola57:
>But who is this " RyanMaue@RyanMaue " ?

He's a meteorologist named Ryan Maue. :)
815. VR46L
Quoting StormPro:

Slow here...waiting for the ban hammer to drop on me once more LOL...46 and still cloudy in NOLA


I don't see why ,I dont see anything wrong with what you said ...

Anyways BOPHA RAMMB image

Quoting ScottLincoln:

He's a meteorologist named Ryan Maue. :)


Thanks ScottLincoln.. :)
818. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:




But he is not very popular with some folk around here . But I think he is good but that's only my opinion
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Atmospheric river moisture for Fri/Sat over NorCal is still associated w/low near Int'l Dateline, +36 hrs... http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273813925039050 753/photo/1/large
Quoting schistkicker:
Actually, since global temperatures are rising when other natural processes would tend toward cooling temperatures, multiple recent studies attribute more than 100% of the observed warming to human activities.
Link
Quoting StormPro:


Is it mathematicaly possible to have a value greater than 100% ?

Yes, depending on the context and the situatuation, it is possible for comparing quantities where one quantity can be larger than 100% of another.
For climate change - attribution of global warming, in particular - evidence has suggested that humans may be responsible for more than 100% of the observed warming since the 1900-1950 timeframe.

How can this be possible? If climate change only had two possible modes, stable or warming, this wouldn't be possible. But global temperatures can remain roughly stable, warm, or cool. If non-human factors are causing a net cooling effect of 0.25C/century and human factors are causing a net warming effect of 1.25C/century, then human factors would be contributing 125% to the observed warming of 1.00C/century.
Squall line next week could be strong. This will probably be the first of a few severe weather events coming our way.
Quoting VR46L:


But he is not very popular with some folk around here . But I think he is good but that's only my opinion


I wouldn't know him from Adam..
If he is a good met. maybe some here threatened by him/her..
and that may be the popularity prob..
Anyway I always give someone a chance..not everyone is right 100% of the time..


Eureka,Cali...


Nice big Cyclone...
If your right 100% of the time you most be spending a lot of time talking to yourself. J/K
Our Northwest Coast Giant Storm:

click on image to enlarge and for the link


click on image for animation
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

[b]4-day forecast rainfall from GFS 12z, San Fran northward could see 4-6'' inches or more. Higher elevations > 1 foot.[/b]
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273820258400346 113/photo/1/large
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You obviously do not subscribe to any science research journals.


You might want to read this article, just saying.

http://natpo.st/TvKCcL
Not only is the picture in my town, but it is on my street. All lost to Sandy!