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A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012

Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.


Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.


Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters
I Am Thankful
I Am Thankful
HappyThanksgiving!
HappyThanksgiving!
to all our wonderful WU Community..a frigid and frosty daybreak at our neighbor's pond..heading up to a sunny and beautiful 50 degree afternoon..:)
there's always light..
there's always light..

Drought Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. yoboi
Quoting bappit:
It seems that fog warning systems bypass the NWS at least for warning systems set up along highways.

Safer Interstate Highways With Automated Fog and Smoke Warning System

"In designing the warning system, GTRI engineers found that various systems, usually simpler ones, have been in use since the early 1980s. The only other similar system in the United States is one on I-75 in Tennessee, but it is not an automated system. So the system near Adel is unique in this nation, though Europe is home to several automated warning systems, Gimmestad says."

Here's a slightly older PDF about how it works.

In days gone fog posed a different problem for fisherman. Here's a painting by Winslow Homer called The Fog Warning.



Edit: ran across this from Nove. 6 2012.

"The Florida Highway Patrol has issued a weather warning for I-75 around mile marker 88 in Collier County.

Fog has reduced visibility in the area. The road is not closed, but drivers are urged to use caution.

In Glades County, troopers have closed State Road 80 at Cowboy Way in LaBelle due to fog. It is not known when the road will reopen.?



can't belive they would close a road for fog a nothing weather event.....
Someone asked the other day what does Fox have to do with climate change denial...this is just a little piece but the latest. They always seem to be deep in the dirty.
Statement from the Guam NWS regarding 90W:


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1133 AM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

PMZ172-173-174-251300-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1133 AM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF POHNPEI HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED AT
ABOUT 3N158E AND THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST OF PREVIOUS POSITIONS.
THIS IS ABOUT 220 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUORO...250 MILES
NORTHEAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI...AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF POHNPEI.
HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE
FLARING UP JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI...OVER KOSRAE AND SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK. THIS CONVECTION COVERS

TA...ETAL...SATAWAN...LUKUNOR...NAMOLUK AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS
IN SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE AND
SAPWUAFIK...NUKUORO...AND KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE AND
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. CHOPPY SEAS OF 5 TO 7
FEET COULD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS ACROSS
THIS REGION.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD
Quoting KoritheMan:


I call dibs on Chantal.
I will say Fernand.btw anyone think 2013 will produce 19 storms like these past 3 seasons? I will say we will reach 15 to 20 names this upcoming year.
Quoting allancalderini:
I will say Fernand.btw anyone think 2013 will produce 19 storms like these past 3 seasons? I will say we will reach 15 to 20 names this upcoming year.


I refuse to answer that after how poorly my forecasts have verified the last three years. I'm convinced we don't know enough yet. Maybe someday.
Floods: 'Threat To Life And Property' In Cornwall

Severe flood warnings have been issued for Helston, Polperro and Perranporth, as rivers threaten to burst their banks in Cornwall.



Residents have been told to flee their homes as floodwater and torrential rain cause "serious threats to life and property" in southwest England.

The Environment Agency has warned of a potential threat to life due to the flooding of three rivers in Cornwall.

Severe flood warnings have been issued for Helston, Polperro and Perranporth, as rivers threaten to burst their banks.

At Polperro, south Cornwall, the level of the River Pol has been recorded at 0.26 metres. The typical level is between 0.00 metres and 0.25 metres.

Special "rest centres" have been set up in the worst-hit villages, allowing families to shelter overnight as floodwater surges through the rural West Country.

Emergency services and rescue crews have met council bosses in an effort to spread the message about the danger to life and property, following nearly four days of rainfall.

Across the region, roads were closed for safety reasons and others were impassable as rain saturated highways, and debris blocked lanes.



Devon and Cornwall Police have warned people not to go to flood affected areas, adding that the worst of the rain appeared to be moving away from Cornwall towards Devon.

Sergeant Gary Watts tweeted: "Severe means risk to life. Please pay heed!"

"Flash flooding can take you by surprise and kill. If you have to be out don't take risks."

Cornwall Council announced on Twitter that the river had burst its banks at Ladock, and warned local residents to take precautions.

Severe warnings are also in place at Bolingey Stream from Bolingey to Perranporth, and at the River Cober, in Helston.

Emergency teams have been working to shore up defences, deploy temporary barriers, monitor river levels, clear blockages from watercourses and pump-out flood water from towns.

The rest of Britain is also bracing itself for more flooding and travel disruption, with forecasters predicting further heavy downpours.

A deep area of low pressure has moved in, bringing more heavy rain to areas already badly hit by Thursday's downpours.

Sky weather producer Joanna Robinson said: "England and Wales could see 15 to 25mm quite widely, with up to 60mm possible in some spots.

"Between 6am and 6pm today 47mm of rain had already fallen at St Mary's (Isles of Scilly), 28mm at Culdrose and Plymouth and 17mm at Exeter and Bournemouth.

"We can expect 30 to 40mm of rain quite widely across south Wales and the West Country by tomorrow morning, with up to 60mm locally, particularly across Devon and Cornwall.



"Elsewhere across England and Wales there will be up to 25mm of rain, with lower amounts across Scotland, but local flooding remains a risk there after such a wet week.

"Gusts up to 70mph are expected for coastal areas of south-east England overnight, with inland gusts of 60mph. There is also the potential for some damage, particularly as the ground is saturated.

"It will be very windy across other southern areas, but the south-east is likely to see the strongest winds."

Network Rail said trains were likely to be suspended between Exeter and Bristol until Monday.

The latest downpours came after the majority of the UK was battered by storms on Thursday, leaving hundreds of drivers stranded and thousands of homes without power.

More than 100 people had to be evacuated as winds reached more than 86mph.

An elderly man also died after becoming trapped in his 4x4 in floods in Chew Stoke in Somerset.

Three other people had a lucky escape after their car was swept down a swollen river in Warwickshire.

The vehicle was carried more than 500 metres before a farmer managed to pull it to the water's edge.

A West Midlands Ambulance Service spokesman said: "Two elderly females and one male were treated for shock and hypothermia by ambulance crews."

In Torquay, Devon, several homes were evacuated after a landslide. Part of a cliff face was hit by a landslip after netting was washed away.
Global warming is seriously affecting Austraila.
508. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:


see what i mean?



what do you get???
Quoting allancalderini:
I will say Fernand.btw anyone think 2013 will produce 19 storms like these past 3 seasons? I will say we will reach 15 to 20 names this upcoming year.

At least 15 named storms I think.
510. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
Global warming is seriously affecting Austraila.



new rules we can only use usa data....
Quoting KoritheMan:


I call dibs on Chantal.

All the good names got taken since I was gone -_-

I'll take Humberto.
Dorian sounds pissed too.
Waterspouts off the coast of Portugal

Quoting Patrap:
Global warming is seriously affecting Austraila.

??????
Quoting KoritheMan:
Dorian sounds pissed too.

Sounds like a knock off DeLorean to me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a mess.



Don't worry, it happens to everybody eventually.

Internal Server Error

The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.
Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 server - Port 80



OK folks... confession time, tell us:

anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Beautiful fall day in GA especially since #3 UGA just beat up on GT 42-10....

Low tonight in the mid 20s...gonna be a cold one.

Michigan lost to Ohio State in a close game, stupid Ohio State.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a mess.


You better clean it up. It actually looks good to me.
I will chim into the names game to say Gabrielle.
el nino is back in western style!!!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Internal Server Error

The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.
Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 server - Port 80



OK folks... confession time, tell us:

anything you might have done that may have caused the error.


Well lets see, I didn't do it. This has been going on for a little while now but not as frequent as earlier.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Michigan lost to Ohio State in a close game, stupid Ohio State.


I would say stupid Michigan as they couldn't beat Ohio State. Ya can't blame a team for beating your team, just means your team didn't play well enough . But I'm being logical :-)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Internal Server Error

The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.
Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 server - Port 80



OK folks... confession time, tell us:

anything you might have done that may have caused the error.


Blame TA13, he made the mess. lol
524. yoboi
Warnings for Ventura County Coast, California | Weather Underground Dense fog advisory remains in effect until 10 am PST Saturday... * visibilities...
dense fog with visibilities of one quarter mile ... Severe Overlay on Radar. Click to ...
www.wunderground.com/US/CA/040.html
Link

A little comic relief.
526. yoboi
Warnings for Woodford, Illinois | Weather Underground Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am CST Wednesday... The National Weather
Service in Lincoln has issued a dense fog ... Severe Overlay on Radar. Click to ...
www.wunderground.com/US/IL/031.html
Quoting AussieStorm:


I would say stupid Michigan as they couldn't beat Ohio State. Ya can't blame a team for beating your team, just means your team didn't play well enough . But I'm being logical :-)

Nah, I'm still saying stupid Ohio State as I don't like them. Michigan could've won, it was just a close game. A cold game with light winds and flurries.
528. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:


The point keeps going over your head. The discussion was about the US definition of severe weather. There was never any talk or discussion of any sort pertaining to foreign vernacular.



why is it when i click on severe weather on this site dense fog is considered severe weather try the link you will see what i am talking about.....do you consider this site as something to go by????
this is a cool picture. It shows the Milky Way's center. The bright dot in the middle is jupiter
Quoting yoboi:



why is it when i click on severe weather on this site dense fog is considered severe weather try the link you will see what i am talking about.....do you consider this site as something to go by????


This site shares National Weather Service information, including the warnings you so vehemently espouse, so yes, I suppose I consider it a reliable source of official information. Still not seeing anything contradicting what I said, btw.
531. yoboi

U.S. Weather Warning Legend Tornado Warning
Tornado Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Winter Weather Statement
High Wind Advisory
Flood Warning
Flood Watch / Flood Statement
Hurricane Local Statement
Heat Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory
Fire Weather Advisory
Hurricane Watch
Hurricane Warning
Tropical Storm Watch
Tropical Storm Warning
Special Weather Statement
Quoting yoboi:



why is it when i click on severe weather on this site dense fog is considered severe weather try the link you will see what i am talking about.....do you consider this site as something to go by????

I think you got this mixed up. When you click the link it shows all the active warnings, watches, and advisories(severe and non-severe).
Quoting wxchaser97:

Nah, I'm still saying stupid Ohio State as I don't like them. Michigan could've won, it was just a close game. A cold game with light winds and flurries.

Yeah, I knew that.


Homes evacuated amid further rain

Severe flood warnings are in place as saturated parts of the UK are hit by more heavy rain and strong winds.
In some areas of Cornwall people have been told to leave their homes as floodwater and torrential rain caused "serious threats to life and property".
Severe flood warnings have been issued in Polperro, Helston, Perranporth and Lostwithiel.
The Environment Agency has more than 100 flood warnings and about 200 flood alerts in place in England and Wales.
And the Met Office has issued an amber weather warning for heavy rain.

Severe flood warnings mean severe flooding and danger to life. Flood warnings mean people should take action because flooding is expected, while flood alerts indicate people should prepare for possible flooding.
A woman is trapped under a fallen tree in Paris Street, Exeter
"Rest centres" have been set up for residents in the villages facing severe warnings. But river levels around Millbrook have dropped and a rest centre opened there has since been closed
Roads have been closed across the region due to flooding. Exmouth in Devon has been cut off, with the A376 closed by police
The M5 is closed southbound between the junctions for Taunton and Wellington, while the M48 is closed in both directions due to flooding between J2 M48 Severn Bridge and M4 J23
The RNLI's south west flood rescue team have been asked to assist the emergency services in Exeter, Devon, with two inshore lifeboats
National Rail said there were delays between Newton Abbot and Exeter St Davids due to flooding and a landslip. The replacement buses have been cancelled on some routes
Network Rail said trains were likely to be disrupted between Exeter, Taunton and Bristol Temple Meads until Monday
A body thought to be that of a man who fell into a canal in fog in Watford has been found
Emergency services, rescue crews and the Environment Agency met Cornwall council bosses during Saturday evening in a bid to spread the message about the danger to life and property.
Devon and Cornwall Police said about 75 homes had been affected across the county.
Spokesman Ian Walls said: "Rest centres have been set up overnight, for people who need to leave their homes and have nowhere else safe to go.
"I'm not sure how much sleep they will get, but it is a way of keeping them safe. I don't want to overstate it, but when there is a real danger to life - as there can be with just a foot of floodwater - then action needs to be taken."
Alan Crockford, a pub landlord in Polperro, said there had been warnings but "nobody knew it would get this bad".
He said: "I was actually in my house and I heard a roar, and just looked outside the window and that was the first bit of water that just, just came down the hill, like a river running straight down the road.
"We were given warnings from Floodline, and they just said like to take care, we were never given any firm warning that you had to evacuate and no one knew to expect it this bad."
Defences shored up
The Met Office has been forecasting heavy rain and strong winds across all parts of the country over the weekend.
The Environment Agency said strong winds would increase the risk of flash flooding as drainage channels were likely to become blocked with wind-blown debris.
"The rain will spread north and east, increasing flood risk in north-east and north-west England on Sunday. The picture remains unsettled for the start of next week," a spokesman said.
John Curtin, head of incident management at the Environment Agency, said: "We would urge people to continue to be prepared for flooding, sign up for Environment Agency flood warnings, keep up to date with the latest situation and stay away from dangerous flood water."
Strong winds
BBC forecasters said south west of England had seen between one and two inches of rain (25mm to 50mm) during Saturday evening, but the worst had passed. It would now be dry for a time with further showers into Sunday morning. Strong winds of between 60mph and 70mph could also whip the south of England and East Anglia in the early hours of Sunday. The weather system bringing the weather will move into northern England and southern Scotland on Sunday.
BBC weather forecaster Chris Fawkes said: "The flood warnings are a legacy of the really heavy rain we've had already so far this week.
"The rivers have been doing what rivers do best, flowing down hill, taking all that excess water away, but they've not managed to clear the backlog. That's why we've got flood warnings in place right now."
Environment Secretary Owen Paterson warned people to be vigilant.
He said: "I would like to warn everybody that flood water is dangerous.
"More rain is forecast over the next few days and it's very easy to leave one's cosy home and just get struck by water and not realise how dangerous it is."
Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue Service have rescued three people from a car stuck in flood water in Mulchelney, Langport.
A 90-year-old woman was rescued after being stranded in her flooded home in North Curry, near Taunton.
On Thursday, a man died in floods after he became trapped in his car under a bridge in Chew Stoke near Bath.
534. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:


This site shares National Weather Service information, including the warnings you so vehemently espouse, so yes, I suppose I consider it a reliable source of official information. Still not seeing anything contradicting what I said, btw.


just click the severe weather link and walla dense fog is there
535. yoboi
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think you got this mixed up. When you click the link it shows all the active warnings, watches, and advisories(severe and non-severe).


it's under severe weather link ya can try and spin it all ya want...
Quoting yoboi:
Warnings for Woodford, Illinois | Weather Underground Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am CST Wednesday... The National Weather
Service in Lincoln has issued a dense fog ... Severe Overlay on Radar. Click to ...
www.wunderground.com/US/IL/031.html
It's dense fog ADVISORY... it's not severe weather warning.
537. yoboi
Quoting yoboi:
Warnings for Woodford, Illinois | Weather Underground Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am CST Wednesday... The National Weather
Service in Lincoln has issued a dense fog ... Severe Overlay on Radar. Click to ...
www.wunderground.com/US/IL/031.html


severe overlay what does that mean???
Quoting yoboi:


severe overlay what does that mean???


WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules

Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

3. No monomania.
Quoting yoboi:


it's under severe weather link ya can try and spin it all ya want...

-Fog indicates stable weather.
-Fog is not recognized as severe weather in the US and most other countries.
-Fog does do harm to people, that is true.
-This 24hr argument about fog is very pointless, we should drop it and find something else more productive to do. deleted...
Quoting KoritheMan:
Dorian sounds pissed too.


Erin. I honestly think Andrea and Erin are the only names that people would take seriously until the list gets to Ingrid, lol.

However, names like Chantal and Dorian would be GOLDEN for twitter. ;)
Quoting wxchaser97:

-Fog indicates stable weather.
-Fog is not recognized as severe weather in the US and most other countries.
-Fog does do harm to people, that is true.
-This 24hr argument about fog is very pointless, we should drop it and find something else more productive to do. Only reason I'm even responding is because you are escalating this too quickly and much more than it needs to be.


And your not by continually replying ???
mon~o~ma~ni~a (mn-mn-, -mny)
n.
1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject.
2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea

I could point out several handles here that have this problem.
Quoting Bielle:


WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules

Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

3. No monomania.


I prefer to call it "debate", but whatever you say, sonny. ;)
544. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules

Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

3. No monomania.



does that apply to climate change also???
545. yoboi
Quoting wxchaser97:

-Fog indicates stable weather.
-Fog is not recognized as severe weather in the US and most other countries.
-Fog does do harm to people, that is true.
-This 24hr argument about fog is very pointless, we should drop it and find something else more productive to do. Only reason I'm even responding is because you are escalating this too quickly and much more than it needs to be.



UK Weather: Met Office issues severe weather warning as thick fog ... Oct 22, 2012 ... Heavy fog has halted planes across England and Europe, with Heathrow Airport
cancelling more than 120 flights today as the Met Office issues ...
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2221343/UK-Weath er-Met-Office-issues-severe-weather-warning-fog-le ads-120-cancelled-flights.html




Quoting KoritheMan:


I prefer to call it "debate", but whatever you say, sonny. ;)


Being a debate does not, even if true, necessarily preclude monomania: one is a method; the other, content. But whatever you say, sonny. ;)
Quoting yoboi:


just click the severe weather link and walla dense fog is there


Let me try and simplify this for you as plainly as I can. If you still don't understand, I'll try again. Wunderground's severe weather page is not an indicator of the severity of a particular event. The enumeration in question is only meant to illuminate ongoing weather advisories/bulletins. It is not meant to classify non-severe events (which have their own specific criterion for classification) like dense fog under the false pretense of "severe weather". This particular phrase was never intended to be used as an umbrella term to encompass literally every form of dangerous weather. Feel free to do that yourself, but it doesn't make things any more conforming to your opinion.

Yes, fog is dangerous. But so is almost every single weather event. Will you categorize them as "severe" as well? What you're doing is taking your own definition of what you believe should constitute "severe weather", and trying to apply it in real-time to something that's bound to happen again. That's called a fallacy.

To summarize, yes, the severe weather page on this site is reliable. But that's because it relays information directly from the National Weather Service. In other words, the bulletins you refer to are bound by the technicalities set forth by this wonderful governmental entity. I don't make the rules, I'm just trying to lay them out for you. If you have a beef with this whole thing, take up with the National Weather Service.
Quoting yoboi:



does that apply to climate change also???

I like your thinking.
Quoting Bielle:


Being a debate does not, even if true, necessarily preclude monomania: one is a method; the other, content. But whatever you say, sonny. ;)


If this is monomania, so are all the global warming debates we have during the off season.

Now sit back and watch, you killjoy. :P
550. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:


I prefer to call it "debate", but whatever you say, sonny. ;)


i thought we were having a civil debate....guess we can't discuss things more than once....i figure if ya share your views and i share mine we might both learn something....i thought iit was a clean civil debate
551. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:


Let me try and simplify this for you as plainly as I can. If you still don't understand, I'll try again. Wunderground's severe weather page is not an indicator of the severity of a particular event. The enumeration in question is only meant to illuminate ongoing weather advisories/bulletins. It is not meant to classify non-severe events (which have their own specific criterion for classification) like dense fog under the false pretense of "severe weather". This particular phrase was never intended to be used as an umbrella term to encompass literally every form of dangerous weather. Feel free to do that yourself, but it doesn't make things any more conforming to your opinion.

Yes, fog is dangerous. But so is almost every single weather event. Will you categorize them as "severe" as well? What you're doing is taking your own definition of what you believe should constitute "severe weather", and trying to apply it in real-time to something that's bound to happen again. That's called a fallacy.

To summarize, yes, the severe weather page on this site is reliable. But that's because it relays information directly from the National Weather Service. In other words, the bulletins you refer to are bound by the technicalities set forth by this wonderful governmental entity. I don't make the rules, I'm just trying to lay them out for you. If you have a beef with this whole thing, take up with the National Weather Service.


the uk considers it a severe weather event and when i click on severe weather link on this site dense fog is shown they also say severe weather overlay with fog....so to me they consider it severe also
well lets look at the reverse of fog... is really dry air severe?... Chapped lips!!!!!!!!
Quoting yoboi:


the uk considers it a severe weather event and when i click on severe weather link on this site dense fog is shown they also say severe weather overlay with fog....so to me they consider it severe also
FOG... IS... NOT... CONSIDERED... A... SEVERE... WEATHER...
Quoting Dragod66:
well lets look at the reverse of fog... is really dry air severe?... Chapped lips!!!!!!!!

Or lets look at dew, it got my shoes wet!
Quoting Bielle:


Being a debate does not, even if true, necessarily preclude monomania: one is a method; the other, content. But whatever you say, sonny. ;)


Quoting KoritheMan:


If this is monomania, so are all the global warming debates we have during the off season.

Now sit back and watch, you killjoy. :P


True -not relevant in the moment, but true nonetheless. What I have managed to do is to get you and yoboi arguing (debating) on the same side against me. Reminds me of the consequences of interfering in a domestic disturbance. Don't let me be your killjoy. Monomania away!
Quoting wxchaser97:

Or lets look at dew, it got my shoes wet!


that stuff is slippery... it probably kills more people in the states every year than fog!
Is fog weather? Yes.

Can you have severe fog? Yes.

So you can have fog as severe weather...
HAVANA, Nov. 24 (Xinhua) -- Cuba will host an international conference next May to discuss the effects of hurricane Sandy and issues related to climate change, the official news agency Prensa Latina said on Saturday.

The Sixth International Conference on the Comprehensive Management of Coastal Areas will be held next May in the eastern city of Santiago de Cuba, which was most devastated by Sandy late last month, said the report, quoting Dr. Ofelia Perez, director of the Center for Multidisciplinary Studies on Coastal Areas (Cemzoc) of the University of Oriente.

The conference will be "a bright opportunity to study the complex circumstances associated to the course of the devastating cyclone in the region," said Perez.

He added that the main issue to be discussed during the meeting will be the integration for the sustainability of coastal ecosystems against climate change.

Perez said that experts from Mexico, Venezuela, Canada, Colombia, Uruguay, Spain, France and Brazil have expressed their interest in attending the conference, which will also cover social, health and environment studies linked to global warming.

Hurricane Sandy, which was considered "historic" by the local meteorologists, hit eastern Cuba on Oct. 25, devastating the city of Santiago de Cuba and leaving 11 people dead.

Over 130,000 houses collapsed in the hurricane disaster, which also caused economic losses of more than 100 million U.S. dollars for the island nation.
I highly recommend reading the blog by Bryan Norcross

Uncovering the lessons of Sandy


...Also, we now know that an untold number of New York City firefighters and policemen stayed in their homes near the water, only to end up leaving in the middle of the storm in a nightmare evacuation... lashing family members together to hang on through the raging water. These are people that understand that really bad crap happens in the world. You'd think that an NYC firefighter, if anybody, would have taken action to protect his family if he understood that the ocean was going to come surging through the house. That was exactly the forecast, but that, obviously, did not come through in the messaging.



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/show.h tml?entrynum=26
Quoting aspectre:
PensacolaDoug:
364 ScottLincoln: Yep, still near record lows for this time of year.


Given his predilection, I suspect PensacolaDoug was comparing the difference in continental snow cover.


And eyeballing two images remains a poor way to identify trends for snow cover, as well...
Quoting yoboi:


it's under severe weather link ya can try and spin it all ya want...

yoboi,
Want you to know I see what you mean about the dropdown menu for "Severe weather" on Wu. The menu even includes hurricanes. The "U.S. severe alert map" seems to include all the advisories issued by NWS.

Here's a wu radar map from the Fort Polk NWS radar. When I clicked "Show Severe" it made an opaque white color over counties that have a "Winter Weather Statement" in effect. Below this map is the Winter Weather Statement for one of those areas.

Seems to me what this discussion has been about is different meanings of the word "Severe" to different bloggers, different websites, different types of mass media in different parts of the world.. As I said this morning, to me "Severe Weather" is thunderstorm related. I think (edit) also includes anything for which a watch or warning can be issued - e.g. fire, winter, flood. At wu, apparently something as simple as danger to tender vegetation applies. (And I do appreciate it when my NWS office issues those advisories so I know when to bring outdoor plants in.)

This is another example of how the meteorological community, including media mets, could make some changes, set worldwide standards, whatever. Kinda like naming storms. Don't be arbitrary. Give us some criteria that make sense and communicate more clearly to the general public. The way this website's severe weather link reads, severe could be an EF5 tornado or simply what's gonna kill your aloe if you leave it on the front porch. I think it's wrong to include an advisory like this on a radar map link meant to depict "Severe Weather." Maybe wu could rethink that and use a different click spot for everything except watches and warnings. Or not.
:)



Sabine
Freeze Warning
Statement as of 9:35 PM CST on November 24, 2012

... Freeze warning now in effect until 8 am CST Sunday...

* event... Canadian high pressure will continue to dominate the
four state region tonight with the center of the surface high
just to the east. Mostly clear skies and near calm winds will
allow for minimum temperatures to drop near or just below
freezing across most of the region on Sunday morning.

* Timing... freezing temperatures are expected late tonight
through around sunrise on Sunday morning.

* Impact... tender vegetation will be susceptible to cold related
damage. Additionally... pet owners may need to take precautions
to protect outdoor pets.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.


ADD: Nov 25. Crops, this could be a "severe" situation. Froma damage point of view, extended drought sure is.
565. txjac
Quoting AussieStorm:


How long does this go on for? it seems like you guys have been dealing with for some time now.
I don't know what they are up to.

It's still feast or famine with a high anchored on Greenland.
OSCAT
569. beell
Quoting bappit:
I don't know what they are up to.


you must be quite pleased with yourself, Mr. bappit.
;-}
Actually, no. More like mystified.
571. beell
Just as good, lol!
finally i can get back into the blog...broken again....
Quoting txjac:


How long does this go on for? it seems like you guys have been dealing with for some time now.

It's that time of year for us. Will end around April.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
finally i can get back into the blog...broken again....


Ryan, I told you that the server was going to be acting up like it has, these past few days...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
finally i can get back into the blog...broken again....


William at support has written to say that the problem is with me and my failure to clear my browser caches. I pointed him to one section of 100 posts in which 14 separate people were complaining of exactly the same error message in all manner of browsers (cleared and not) and from all over the world. I haven't heard anything back since, and the problem is not fixed. If you want some action on the matter, I suggest you also write in.
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like a video game from the 80,s Skye..:)


Copy & Paste..... Copy & Paste .......

Copy & Paste..... Copy & Paste .......

Copy & Paste..... Copy & Paste .......

Copy & Paste..... Copy & Paste .......
Quoting hydrus:
Looks like a video game from the 80,s Skye..:)


I didn't even think of Frogger..lol.

I was taken with how the Kelvin waves have been dying sooner & farther west through time.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Internal Server Error

The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.
Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 server - Port 80



OK folks... confession time, tell us:

anything you might have done that may have caused the error.



Oops! I tripped over the power cable to the WU's router. ... I'll get it. ...... Better? ... Oops! I need to flush the router's dns cache too. .... Be right back.
Quoting Skyepony:


End of December the BOM is expecting a jump of the MJO which will kick off the NAMS.
Quoting Skyepony:


I didn't even think of Frogger..lol.

I was taken with how the Kelvin waves have been dying sooner & farther west through time.
Probably why Nino has not made the official spot for so long...Sign of things to come I believe.
Quoting EstherD:



Just finished an interesting foray into Newton's occult studies. Knew that Newton was heavily into stuff like alchemy, but didn't know he also worked on prophetic interpretation of the Bible. A very enjoyable diversion for a slow afternoon, so thanks for the info!


Actually, the next apocalypse will happen in 2038. More precisely, 03:14:07 UTC on Tuesday, 19 January 2038. This is when internal clocks of 32 bit OS's will run out, flipping back to 1/1/1970.

Well, it's not really an apocalypse, but many a nerd and geek will sigh in nostalgia at the passing of that date. :)
Quoting Grothar:


So that's where it ended up! I always wondered what happened to it.


Grothar, you need to keep better track of your toys.
Do you remember what happened when you lost the Ark of The Covenant? It took 4000 years for some guy in a dusty leather jacket to find the damn thing again. And even when he found it, he had to fight off a bunch of Nazis for it. The thing ended up melting people, so the government locked it up in warehouse where you won't be able to play with it anymore.

And don't get me started on Noah's Ark. How you manage to lose a giant wooden ship capable of holding two of every animal on Earth I'll never know. And poor Noah wouldn't even have needed to build it in the first place if you had made sure your sink faucet was turned off.

;)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
10:30 AM RET November 25 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Boldwin (992 hPa) located at 14.5S 73.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center extending up to 25 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.3S 71.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.8S 67.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.5S 66.9E - Depression Se Comblant

Additional Information
========================
In the south of the upper level ridge axis, vertical wind shear keeps on increasing near the center of Boldwin.

The low level circulation center has been re-localized northern and is now under the northwestern edge of the deep convective main cluster (SSMIS F18 0309 AM UTC and F17 0049 AM UTC).

This convective activity mainly exists in the southeastern quadrant but remains strong, well sustained by a rather good poleward upper level divergence.

Wind shear is expected to keeps on increasing slowly over the next 12 hours then more sharply as the system will undergo the influence of an approaching upper level trough.

System is therefore expected to keeps on weakening within the next 36 hours as it tracks west southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures. On and after tau 48 system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south, and turn southwards and then south southeastward.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, the next apocalypse will happen in 2038. More precisely, 03:14:07 UTC on Tuesday, 19 January 2038. This is when internal clocks of 32 bit OS's will run out, flipping back to 1/1/1970.

Well, it's not really an apocalypse, but many a nerd and geek will sigh in nostalgia at the passing of that date. :)


Think it's quite likely that my clock will have run out long before then. But ya never know. In any case, there is at least one nice thing about being an old, retired UNIX guru... At least I won't be sittin' in the hot seat for that one the way I was for Y2K. :)
Quoting ScottLincoln:


And eyeballing two images remains a poor way to identify trends for snow cover, as well...




Ya seem stuck on an image. Ya off yer meds or something?

32.5 On da bayou at this moment.
Quoting Allan012:


Ryan, I told you that the server was going to be acting up like it has, these past few days...


who's Ryan?
More flooding misery for the UK, although not as bad as it might have been.

Wettest summer here in Scotland for 100 years, and it just keeps falling.

The usual path of the jet stream has altered in recent years, bringing unusual and extreme weather to many regions. The most extreme effects have been the record Russian heat wave of 2010 and the record Pakistani floods that year.

The jet stream is weakening, probably due to the 'arctic dipole', which itself is probably being caused by the record Arctic ocean ice melt. This causes its meandering 'loops' to move further south.

The jet stream is emerging as an early 'joker in the pack' in climate change, causing unexpected changes to regional weather patterns.


I don't like this time of year. Hitting refresh on this page does not necessarily yield new things to read.
Video of flooding in UK last night


Link
Good Morning World, 75 and Sunny today, 82 and Sunny Monday, very mild here so far this year and no rain in 2 months. Have a great day!
Good morning.

The weather in Puerto Rico will be very good this week with plenty of sun and cooler temperatures.
How dry is it here:

As we near the end of the month, the 7-day forecast holds a couple of slim chances for a few drops in the bucket – but a completely dry November is starting to look like a bleak possibility.

If we do end the month with 0.00″ of rain at Camp Mabry, this will only be the 4th such occurrence since records began in 1856, and the first time in over a century:

Camp Mabry’s Driest Novembers:

November 1861 – 0.00″

November 1894 – 0.00″

November 1897 – 0.00″

November 2012
Good Morning Folks!..cold here this morning............
Since it's a little slow this Sunday morning, I thought I'd mention that WU Weather Historian Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting new blog post out, Same-Day Record High and Low Temperatures. In it, he details many instances of phenomenal short-term temperature swings, such as:

"On November 11, 1911 the most extreme cold front in U.S. meteorological records swept quickly across the Great Plains and Midwest. Kansas City, Missouri fell from 76° to 11° in 12 hours. Oklahoma City fell from 83° to 17° and Springfield, Missouri from 80° to 13°. In all three cases the cities recorded both their record high and record low temperature on November 11th."

Burt's blog posts are always a great read, and this one is no exception. If you can tear yourself away from the riveting "Fog is severe weather!" arguments, go have a look... ;-)
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
How dry is it here:

As we near the end of the month, the 7-day forecast holds a couple of slim chances for a few drops in the bucket – but a completely dry November is starting to look like a bleak possibility.

If we do end the month with 0.00″ of rain at Camp Mabry, this will only be the 4th such occurrence since records began in 1856, and the first time in over a century:

Camp Mabry’s Driest Novembers:

November 1861 – 0.00″

November 1894 – 0.00″

November 1897 – 0.00″

November 2012
Unfortunately--or fortunately, depending on one's point of view--the CPC isn't calling for much different for you over either the 6-10 day period:

CPC
CPC

...or the 8-14 day period:
CPC
CPC
602. yoboi
Quoting Bluestorm5:
FOG... IS... NOT... CONSIDERED... A... SEVERE... WEATHER...


i was talking about dense fog not just fog...
603. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since it's a little slow this Sunday morning, I thought I'd mention that WU Weather Historian Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting new blog post out, Same-Day Record High and Low Temperatures. In it, he details many instances of phenomenal short-term temperature swings, such as:

"On November 11, 1911 the most extreme cold front in U.S. meteorological records swept quickly across the Great Plains and Midwest. Kansas City, Missouri fell from 76° to 11° in 12 hours. Oklahoma City fell from 83° to 17° and Springfield, Missouri from 80° to 13°. In all three cases the cities recorded both their record high and record low temperature on November 11th."

Burt's blog posts are always a great read, and this one is no exception. If you can tear yourself away from the riveting "Fog is severe weather!" arguments, go have a look... ;-)



dense fog nea keep it real
Statement from the Guam NWS regarding 90W.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1042 PM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

PMZ172-173-174-260100-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1042 PM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF POHNPEI HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CENTERED NEAR 3N158E. THIS IS
ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUORO...250 MILES NORTHEAST OF
KAPINGAMARANGI...AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF POHNPEI. HEAVY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE FLARING UP JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI...SOUTHWEST OF
KOSRAE AND SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. THIS CONVECTION COVERS

TA...ETAL...SATAWAN...LUKUNOR...NAMOLUK AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS
IN SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE AND
SAPWUAFIK...NUKUORO...AND KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE AND
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. CHOPPY SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
COULD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS ACROSS
THIS REGION.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

AYDLETT
Can you tell Summer is getting close???

Quoting Neapolitan:
Unfortunately--or fortunately, depending on one's point of view--the CPC isn't calling for much different for you over either the 6-10 day period:

CPC
CPC

...or the 8-14 day period:
CPC
CPC

Once again, that's called weather. Climate is combined weather 30 years or more.
Good morning everyone, it is a cold morning with a 29F temp. I went to bed with a green and brown ground and woke up to a white one, it snowed last night. There is 1/2-1 inch of snow on the ground.
90W is slowly consolidating.

Link
Good morning. 90W organized quite a bit overnight:



Very mixed signals still regarding its future. The GFS has been very consistent in making it a strong system and taking it well out to sea. The Euro hadn't been showing development for a while, but is now forecasting slow development over the next several days. Because it keeps it weak for much of the run the Euro shows a much more southerly track, so it's something to keep an eye on.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Once again, that's called weather. Climate is combined weather 30 years or more.


Fine.

Reality doesn't care about man-made grouping terms, boundaries, or definitions.

It's this rigid, categorical thinking, i.e. hurricane categories, which got more than an average number of people killed in Sandy even though it was "only" a category 1.

If you insist on a 30 year period, fine, update your 30 year period every year, and compare it to any other 30 year period, not just decade boundaries.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 90W organized quite a bit overnight:



Very mixed signals still regarding its future. The GFS has been very consistent in making it a strong system and taking it well out to sea. The Euro hadn't been showing development for a while, but is now forecasting slow development over the next several days. Because it keeps it weak for much of the run the Euro shows a much more southerly track, so it's something to keep an eye on.

the Euro had it as a very compact system last week but keeping it well out to sea, so not much has changed then.
Look what's on CNN.....

NASA predicts total blackout on 23-25 Dec 2012 during alignment of Universe.

US scientists predict Universe change, total blackout of planet for 3 days from Dec 23 2012.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-al ignment.html

It is not the end of the world, it is an alignment of the Universe, where the Sun and the earth will align for the first time. The earth will shift from
the current third dimension to zero dimension, then shift to the forth dimension. During this transition, the entire Universe will face a big
change, and we will see a entire brand new world.

The 3 days blackout is predicted to happen on Dec 23, 24, 25....during this time, staying calm is most important, hug each other, pray pray pray, sleep for 3 nights...and those who survive will face a brand new world....for those not prepared, many will die because of fear.

Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.

There is a lot of talk about what will happen in 2012, but many people don't believe it, and don't want to talk
about it for fear of creating fear and panic. We don't know what will happen, but it is worth
listening to USA 's NASA talk about preparation.


Here is what NASA really says. Link
I don't understand why NASA would write a story rationalizing the fact that some believe a cataclysmic event will unfold on this years winter solstice, as if people who believe in such frivolous claims will suddenly become filled with logic after reading the aforementioned story.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Look what's on CNN.....

NASA predicts total blackout on 23-25 Dec 2012 during alignment of Universe.

US scientists predict Universe change, total blackout of planet for 3 days from Dec 23 2012.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-al ignment.html

It is not the end of the world, it is an alignment of the Universe, where the Sun and the earth will align for the first time. The earth will shift from
the current third dimension to zero dimension, then shift to the forth dimension. During this transition, the entire Universe will face a big
change, and we will see a entire brand new world.

The 3 days blackout is predicted to happen on Dec 23, 24, 25....during this time, staying calm is most important, hug each other, pray pray pray, sleep for 3 nights...and those who survive will face a brand new world....for those not prepared, many will die because of fear.

Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.

There is a lot of talk about what will happen in 2012, but many people don't believe it, and don't want to talk
about it for fear of creating fear and panic. We don't know what will happen, but it is worth
listening to USA 's NASA talk about preparation.


Here is what NASA really says. Link


What? Seriously? I know I predicted an Internet blackout for December 22 onward, but this...well, makes no sense...I'll read what NASA actually says. :P

Update: Aussie, don't be silly. That's not even CNN, it's an iReport article. The NASA link calls the "alignment" hypothesis nonsense.

Once again, as was the case in the Camping Doom Scares, the only valid point in the article is "love/hug each other" and perhaps "prepare yourselves spiritually". But that's only because the Ego inhibits free will, in my opinion.

"Love is not Fear."

And now, back to the weather. After it snowing four inches early Saturday morning, much of the snow melted and now, it's melting again. A weak Alberta clipper (a type of low) will pass through the Great Lakes area, bringing more snow. Now, I have a question: how does the Mississippi fall below 0.0 ft at St. Louis--what baseline is it measured from?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
16:30 PM RET November 25 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Boldwin (994 hPa) located at 15.1S 73.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.3S 70.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale
48 HRS: 18.7S 67.0E - Depression Se Comblant
72 HRS: 22.0S 66.6E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
========================
In the south of the upper level ridge axis, northwesterly vertical wind shear keeps on increasing near the center of Boldwin. Due to a lack of recent microwave imagery, low level circulation center is difficult to locate precisely but the small vortex is still masked by upper level clouds.

The convective activity mainly exists in the southeastern quadrant but remains well sustained by a rather good poleward upper level divergence.

Wind shear is expected to keeps on increasing as the system will undergo the influence of an approaching upper level trough. System is therefore expected to keeps on weakening within the next 36 hours as it tracks west southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures.

Beyond system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south, and turn southwards and then south southeastward and merge with this trough on Wednesday or Thursday.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


What? Seriously? I know I predicted an Internet blackout for December 22 onward, but this...well, makes no sense...I'll read what NASA actually says. :P

I think one is viewer written from what they think NASA says. Then when you read what NASA actually reads it's hard to understand how someone could mis-intemperate what NASA said.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Once again, that's called weather. Climate is combined weather 30 years or more.


I'm not quite sure what you're trying to prove here. I'm pretty sure Nea understands the difference between climate and weather. The projected outlook calls for warmer than average and drier than average conditions across much of the continental US for the next couple of weeks. How you get "climate" out of that I'm not really sure, other than the source being named Climate Prediction Center.
I'm looking for a snow forecast for Wednesday and Thursday for Eastern Us/Canada... Anyone help me out?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Once again, that's called weather. Climate is combined weather 30 years or more.
and once again your incongruity of response, to having not being addressed in the first place, completely misses Nea's reply to an actual question...
There are now 25 days until the 2012 winter solstice.
TXPride cometh before a Fall ?
Quoting AussieStorm:

the Euro had it as a very compact system last week but keeping it well out to sea, so not much has changed then.


This is the latest from the Euro. A small but strong Typhoon threatening Mindanao.

Quoting Dragod66:
I'm looking for a snow forecast for Wednesday and Thursday for Eastern Us/Canada... Anyone help me out?


Quoting Dragod66:
I'm looking for a snow forecast for Wednesday and Thursday for Eastern Us/Canada... Anyone help me out?


Try this link Dragod66..it covers alot of territory..the legend on the left of this link can be helpful.. :)
The History of Climate Change Negotiations in 83 seconds

The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel
On the heels of #Sandy and Winter Storm #Athena, this week's Northeast #snow will be on the minor side. Link
.
.
.
Does that mean they are not going to name it?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


This is the latest from the Euro. A small but strong Typhoon threatening Mindanao.

there is also a ts I believe south of Japan.
Some rough calculations suggest that based on current melt rates and ~6 year average melt rates (the fifth year screws stuff up,) arctic volume annual minimum curve appears to hit zero in the 4th year (2016) using an exponential curve, or the fifth year (2017) just using linear.

Further



It should be noted that the annual MAXIMUM will fall below the highest annual minimum (16,900km^3) in the modern record sometime in the next 5 to 7 years.




This would represent a complete bifurcation in the annual Arctic ice volume cycle, which is again stated as, "the annual maximum volume will be permanently lower than the annual minimum volume was at the beginning of the satellite record."


Annual area minimum should hit zero in 5 years if the rate is linear, or 4 years if the rate is exponential, agreeing closely with the projected volume melt rate.




The area maximum curve is less well behaved than the area minimum, but as average thickness continues to decrease this trend should change so that area maximum becomes more well behaved, in terms of tracking the data, not in terms of what's good for the planet.

I determined that the rate of decrease (slope of the tangent) in the area maximum lags behind the rate of decrease in the area minimum by about 9 or 10 years. However, this could be somewhat coincidental. It seems likely that as thickness continues decreasing this time delay will shrink or disappear.
thanks guys aussie and pcola!
Quoting Xandra:
The History of Climate Change Negotiations in 83 seconds



Only a couple percent of China's population owns automobiles. Just wait till they equal the west.



Here's the real problem.

Solving pollution problems, especially a fundamental chemistry problem like CO2, requires top to bottom change in our energy infrastructure and technology. However, capitalistic societies are driven by short term and medium term profits for individuals or corporations, rather than what makes sense for entire civilizations over entire life times.

Currently, almost nothing in government is planned beyond the next election cycle, and then when the next election happens, they spend the first half of their term undoing any long-term policies made by the previous administration. As a nation, we have "multiple personality disorder" whereby the two personalities have totally opposite beliefs which spend the majority of their time doing little more than undermining the other personality.
What happened at NRL that they changed from 90W to 91W? And is the same system.


Link
Well,90W or 91W has SSD dvorak numbers up to 1.5.

Up to 1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 251535

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (SE OF CHUUK)

B. 25/1430Z

C. 3.3N

D. 157.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .30 WRAP ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
Good Morning All,

Webcam near my location..


My WU weather at a glance..





Current Jet Stream
Quoting AussieStorm:
Look what's on CNN.....

NASA predicts total blackout on 23-25 Dec 2012 during alignment of Universe.

US scientists predict Universe change, total blackout of planet for 3 days from Dec 23 2012.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-al ignment.html

It is not the end of the world, it is an alignment of the Universe, where the Sun and the earth will align for the first time. The earth will shift from
the current third dimension to zero dimension, then shift to the forth dimension. During this transition, the entire Universe will face a big
change, and we will see a entire brand new world.

The 3 days blackout is predicted to happen on Dec 23, 24, 25....during this time, staying calm is most important, hug each other, pray pray pray, sleep for 3 nights...and those who survive will face a brand new world....for those not prepared, many will die because of fear.

Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.

There is a lot of talk about what will happen in 2012, but many people don't believe it, and don't want to talk
about it for fear of creating fear and panic. We don't know what will happen, but it is worth
listening to USA 's NASA talk about preparation.


Here is what NASA really says. Link



To begin with (and I am not sure where to begin here...) there is no consensus about how many dimensions the universe currently have. However, there is one thing for sure... The universe has at least 4 dimensions (Minkowsky space = 3 spatial + 1 temporal dimension). For this reason, the view of the universe as an expanding balloon, although nice,it's not realistic because there is no center of the universe. Since there is no center, there are no "alignments" in the sense that is being described in this ludicrous description of I don't really know what.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Once again, that's called weather. Climate is combined weather 30 years or more.



"Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned." Gautama Buddha

Quoting Dragod66:
thanks guys aussie and pcola!
your welcome
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE...11:45 AM UPDATE
_________________________

UPDATED... Big Lake effect snowstorm

...change... the bottom white shaded area should say near half a foot...not over a foot...



click for larger image
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_________________________

Big Lake effect snowstorm


lick for larger image


Thanks Max.. :)
Someone missed the "not vetted by CNN" at the top of the page. Looks like an i report editorial...

Quoting Tango01:



To begin with (and I am not sure where to begin here...) there is no consensus about how many dimensions the universe currently have. However, there is one thing for sure... The universe has at least 4 dimensions (Minkowsky space = 3 spatial + 1 temporal dimension). For this reason, the view of the universe as an expanding balloon, although nice,it's not realistic because there is no center of the universe. Since there is no center, there are no "alignments" in the sense that is being described in this ludicrous description of I don't really know what.
Quoting charlottefl:
Someone missed the "not vetted by CNN" at the top of the page. Looks like an i report editorial...



I am sorry...I always fall into trolls tricks.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Look what's on CNN.....

NASA predicts total blackout on 23-25 Dec 2012 during alignment of Universe.

US scientists predict Universe change, total blackout of planet for 3 days from Dec 23 2012.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-al ignment.html

It is not the end of the world, it is an alignment of the Universe, where the Sun and the earth will align for the first time. The earth will shift from
the current third dimension to zero dimension, then shift to the forth dimension. During this transition, the entire Universe will face a big
change, and we will see a entire brand new world.

The 3 days blackout is predicted to happen on Dec 23, 24, 25....during this time, staying calm is most important, hug each other, pray pray pray, sleep for 3 nights...and those who survive will face a brand new world....for those not prepared, many will die because of fear.

Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.

There is a lot of talk about what will happen in 2012, but many people don't believe it, and don't want to talk
about it for fear of creating fear and panic. We don't know what will happen, but it is worth
listening to USA 's NASA talk about preparation.


Here is what NASA really says. Link


That article is a hoax, and it only took me about half-way through the first paragraph to recognize that whoever wrote it has absolutely no scientific education or understanding beyond about the 4th grade level.

In fact, if you actually go to the NASA article they claim to be citing as a reference, you find it's opening paragraph says the exact opposite:

The actual NASA article

One of the most bizarre theories about 2012 has built up with very little attention to facts. This idea holds that a cosmic alignment of the sun, Earth, the center of our galaxy -- or perhaps the galaxy's thick dust clouds -- on the winter solstice could for some unknown reason lead to destruction. Such alignments can occur but these are a regular occurrence and can cause no harm (and, indeed, will not even be at its closest alignment during the 2012 solstice.)

...

The first strike against this theory is that the solstice itself does not correlate to any movements of the stars or anything in the universe beyond Earth. It just happens to be the day that Earth's North Pole is tipped farthest from the sun.

Second, Earth is not within range of strong gravitational effects from the black hole at the center of the galaxy since gravitational effects decrease exponentially the farther away one gets. Earth is 93 million miles from the sun and 165 quadrillion miles from the Milky Way's black hole. The sun and the moon (a smaller mass, but much closer) are by far the most dominant gravitational forces on Earth. Throughout the course of the year, our distance from the Milky Way's black hole changes by about one part in 900 million – not nearly enough to cause a real change in gravity's pull. Moreover, we're actually nearest to the galactic center in the summer, not at the winter solstice.

Third, the sun appears to enter the part of the sky occupied by the Dark Rift every year at the same time, and its arrival there in Dec. 2012 portends precisely nothing.


It's almost as if people intentionally set out to make themselves as ignorant as possible about every possible topic.
TCFA issued for 91W:

WTPN21 PGTW 251700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N 158.2E TO 4.5N 155.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 251630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 157.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.6N
158.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 251424Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. A 251058Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, INDICATIVE OF THE
RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS
PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND IS NOW WEAK (10 TO 15
KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261700Z.//
NNNN

G'day, Sun Nov 25th

SE LA weather report -
LOL, well outta the fog and into the frost! And actually I saw both last night while enjoying a bonfire under moonlit skies... ;)

Coldest morning yet across the Gulf South with lows uniformly in 20's / 30's, although certainly not record-setting. Checking lows around my part of SE LA, locally the Houma Metro (record low: 22F, 1950) saw USDA @ 32.4F, KHUM @ 34.7F, my Bayou Cane home @ 35.1F, while my truly rural / always colder Bayou Blue location had a freeze with 30F reading... As I've documented numerous times - When I left there last night before 10 PM, already was 37F, got home 6 miles back to the urbanized, commercialized mass of concrete that formerly rural Bayou Cane has been transformed into to find warmer 44F reading. By midnight the respective readings were 34F and 39F.

Anyway, rebounding nicely into the 60's now after observing my 3rd frost of season - full coverage, surfaces coated in icy white at sunrise, beautiful Winter morning. But quick changes on the way, including good chance rain next 2 days, minor cool-off on Wed, with overall trend here milder to likely end the month / start December on a warmer note. However, our local temp departure for November 2012 is certain to average below normal - data from Louisiana Office State Climatology indicates Houma mean temperature was 7F degrees below average for week 1, 5F degrees below average week 2, 9F degrees below average for week 3... Been a cool Fall for us, but I'm a little skeptical of that trend continuing thru Winter.

Blog topic PS: My local Thanksgiving 2012 weather observation was like much of the N Gulf region and Florida - seasonable and pleasant, calm, dry, tranquil conditions neither excessively warm or cold, very average... Cool morn low temps with light fog, mild aftn high temps, mostly sunny skies with fair wx cumulus / increasing cirrus and shallow alto cumulus deck from west late in day, light / variable to calm winds.

Calendar date November 22 climate normals Houma LA 164407 -
('81-2010 period): 50.7-71.2F = MT: 60.95F
LOSC temp data Thanksgiving Thu Nov 22 2012, Houma: 41-76F
Low temp 41F was 9.7F below average
High temp 76F was 4.8F above average
Daily Mean Temp 58.5F was 2.45F below average
CA could be looking at some in that we have not seen in a vary long time

Were are having a severe outbreak of sunshine today. Not a cloud in the sky.
Quoting Grothar:
Were are having a severe outbreak of sunshine today. Not a cloud in the sky.


LOL Gro,
Well the aviation term is indeed, "severe clear" for such... ;)
Quoting Grothar:
Were are having a severe outbreak of sunshine today. Not a cloud in the sky.


Truly Dangerous wx, you could hurt your eyes looking up, could crash from sunshine in your eyes while driving, or you could get skin cancer....
Quoting AussieStorm:
Look what's on CNN.....

NASA predicts total blackout on 23-25 Dec 2012 during alignment of Universe.

US scientists predict Universe change, total blackout of planet for 3 days from Dec 23 2012.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-al ignment.html

It is not the end of the world, it is an alignment of the Universe, where the Sun and the earth will align for the first time. The earth will shift from
the current third dimension to zero dimension, then shift to the forth dimension. During this transition, the entire Universe will face a big
change, and we will see a entire brand new world.

The 3 days blackout is predicted to happen on Dec 23, 24, 25....during this time, staying calm is most important, hug each other, pray pray pray, sleep for 3 nights...and those who survive will face a brand new world....for those not prepared, many will die because of fear.

Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.

There is a lot of talk about what will happen in 2012, but many people don't believe it, and don't want to talk
about it for fear of creating fear and panic. We don't know what will happen, but it is worth
listening to USA 's NASA talk about preparation.


Here is what NASA really says. Link


Thanks for the find Aussie.

I've seen JFV posts with more articulation and sense than this iReport CNN article. What were they thinking?

Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.

While trying to ignore the fact that they misspelled 'everyday', just reading the post you can tell this is incredibly poor scientific understanding and full of logical fallacies, and it's a hoax. There's nothing like that, that has been announced to the media by NASA. Because you know, smart people work there.
Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL Gro,
Well the aviation term is indeed, "severe clear" for such... ;)


I'm just glad I don't have to go through another apocalypse. It sort of messes up the day.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Truly Dangerous wx, you could hurt your eyes looking up, could crash from sunshine in your eyes while driving, or you could get skin cancer....


Are you guys making fun of the whole "Fog = Severe weather" thing?

Personally, I wouldn't consider Fog as "severe weather" because the only damage associated with it is actually directly induced by human stupidity.
Quoting Grothar:
Were are having a severe outbreak of sunshine today. Not a cloud in the sky.
Please use SPF ( Sun Protection Factor ) sun block of 16,000,000,000. Do not go near water as glare may shoot beaming laser rays into your guts. ...avoid U.V,s...they cause 20 to 30 pound melanomies.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Only a couple percent of China's population owns automobiles. Just wait till they equal the west.



Here's the real problem.

Solving pollution problems, especially a fundamental chemistry problem like CO2, requires top to bottom change in our energy infrastructure and technology. However, capitalistic societies are driven by short term and medium term profits for individuals or corporations, rather than what makes sense for entire civilizations over entire life times.

Currently, almost nothing in government is planned beyond the next election cycle, and then when the next election happens, they spend the first half of their term undoing any long-term policies made by the previous administration. As a nation, we have "multiple personality disorder" whereby the two personalities have totally opposite beliefs which spend the majority of their time doing little more than undermining the other personality.



So what's the solution? Assuming GW is A. A one world government imposing it's will at gunpoint? A dictatorship in the USA so we don't keep changing governments every 4 to 8 years? Kinda scary sounding.


As for the upcoming Winter Solstice 2012 discussion, well I'm somewhat depressed over it. But I feel that way every year with it marking the end of days getting shorter / subsequently growing longer. Perhaps I'm the opposite of folks who suffer Winter-time blues, and I've definitely enjoyed our cooler than average Fall, but at my 29.6N latitude the cold season doesn't last long enough, with signs of Spring usually evident in February - lol, although statistically / historically that's our snowiest month if we get any!

Now back to the matter at hand. Let me offer solid reassurance about December 21 2012 - I've extensively researched the Mayan calendar and their correlated astronomy records and have found conclusive proof on the interpretation. Everyone can relax... we'll still be here on Dec 22 as the date of the Winter Solstice will merely mark the day that modern astronomers will discover the doomsday comet hurtling toward us... we'll have several days afterward to prepare...
;)

Cover the plants folks........................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
107 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...AND HERNANDO
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER COUNTY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

FLZ039-042-261300-
/O.UPG.KTBW.FZ.A.0008.121126T0700Z-121126T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FZ.W.0011.121126T0700Z-121126T1300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS
107 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM
EST MONDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURE...TWO TO THREE HOURS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES
POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS. PLAN TO
COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS THIS EVENING. ALSO BE SURE
TO BRING PETS INSIDE TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 27 AND 32 OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...AND BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.

&&

$$
Quoting DocNDswamp:
As for the upcoming Winter Solstice 2012 discussion, well I'm somewhat depressed over it. But I feel that way every year with it marking the end of days getting shorter / subsequently growing longer. Perhaps I'm the opposite of folks who suffer Winter-time blues, and I've definitely enjoyed our cooler than average Fall, but at my 29.6N latitude the cold season doesn't last long enough, with signs of Spring usually evident in February - lol, although statistically / historically that's our snowiest month if we get any!

Now back to the matter at hand. Let me offer solid reassurance about December 21 2012 - I've extensively researched the Mayan calendar and their correlated astronomy records and have found conclusive proof on the interpretation. Everyone can relax... we'll still be here on Dec 22 as the date of the Winter Solstice will merely mark the day that modern astronomers will discover the doomsday comet hurtling toward us... we'll have several days afterward to prepare...
;)

right its just the start of a new calander, BUT..without telescopes etc..they were Masters at star gazing and plotting the planets etc..which is truly amazing..and..they did..plot the changing universe that comes in the later part of december...amazing just how good they were at saying WHAT will happen many many years in advance..credit is due them alright

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2012

How the myth of fossil fuel abundance actually impedes progress on climate change

The great fear among those working to address climate change is that the seemingly vast resources of fossil fuels waiting to be burned will send the world hurtling toward certain catastrophe. By invoking fossil fuel abundance, climate activists believe that their argument for a rapid transition to alternative energy is made more persuasive. But, it is poor strategy to reinforce the myth of fossil fuel abundance when doing so actually makes many people less open to such an argument. And, as it turns out, the abundance argument is also contrary to the available data, logic and prudent risk management principles.

Here is what I mean. First, despite all the hype about marginal gains in U.S. oil production, world oil production has been on a plateau since 2005. Small gains in U.S. production have been offset by declining production in the rest of the world. The news for coal production is only slightly less discouraging as one study suggests that the rate of coal production worldwide could peak as early as 2025. In the United States, while coal tonnage has remained essentially flat from 1998 through 2011, energy content has actually declined. Has the available energy from U.S. coal production already peaked? We can't be sure. But the trend suggests caution....



http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2012/11/how- myth-of-fossil-fuel-abundance.html
Ancient cultures recognised four major dates within each year: the two solstices (when days are at their longest or shortest) and the two equinoxes (when the lengths of day and night are equal). They could tell when these dates were approaching by watching which stars were on the horizon at sunrise and sunset, and where they were relative to the sun. If you watched for long enough, for hundreds of years, then it became apparent that the stars were moving slightly out of position each year. The star that was due east at the winter solstice sunset 70 years ago is one degree out today. The Greek astronomer Hipparchus (c. 190-120 BC) is widely acknowledged as the discoverer of the precession of the equinoxes, yet the ancient Egyptians and Maya were also aware of it.


Read more: http://survive2012.com/index.php/galactic-alignmen t.html#ixzz2DGFncMHK
Quoting DocNDswamp:
As for the upcoming Winter Solstice 2012 discussion, well I'm somewhat depressed over it. But I feel that way every year with it marking the end of days getting shorter / subsequently growing longer. Perhaps I'm the opposite of folks who suffer Winter-time blues, and I've definitely enjoyed our cooler than average Fall, but at my 29.6N latitude the cold season doesn't last long enough, with signs of Spring usually evident in February - lol, although statistically / historically that's our snowiest month if we get any!

Now back to the matter at hand. Let me offer solid reassurance about December 21 2012 - I've extensively researched the Mayan calendar and their correlated astronomy records and have found conclusive proof on the interpretation. Everyone can relax... we'll still be here on Dec 22 as the date of the Winter Solstice will merely mark the day that modern astronomers will discover the doomsday comet hurtling toward us... we'll have several days afterward to prepare...
;)

Miss Cleo predicted that on 12/21/12 I would pack my bong and eat cookies.
Quoting LargoFl:
right its just the start of a new calander, BUT..without telescopes etc..they were Masters at star gazing and plotting the planets etc..which is truly amazing..and..they did..plot the changing universe that comes in the later part of december...amazing just how good they were at saying WHAT will happen many many years in advance..credit is due them alright


That that were, Largo. Quite an advanced civilization (as were the Olmecs preceding them)... However, I kinda believe the human sacrifice thing wasn't the best of karma for their future!
The ancient Maya were keen astronomers, recording and interpreting every aspect of the sky. As they believed that the will and actions of the Gods could be read in the stars, moon and planets, they dedicated much time to doing so and many of their most important buildings were constructed with astronomy in mind. The Sun, Moon and planets (Venus in particular) were studied by the Maya. The Maya also based their calendars around astronomy.
Quoting LargoFl:
Ancient cultures recognised four major dates within each year: the two solstices (when days are at their longest or shortest) and the two equinoxes (when the lengths of day and night are equal). They could tell when these dates were approaching by watching which stars were on the horizon at sunrise and sunset, and where they were relative to the sun. If you watched for long enough, for hundreds of years, then it became apparent that the stars were moving slightly out of position each year. The star that was due east at the winter solstice sunset 70 years ago is one degree out today. The Greek astronomer Hipparchus (c. 190-120 BC) is widely acknowledged as the discoverer of the precession of the equinoxes, yet the ancient Egyptians and Maya were also aware of it.


Read more: http://survive2012.com/index.php/galactic-alignmen t.html#ixzz2DGFncMHK


I envy their dark skies before light pollution. I have to travel to west Texas to see the Milky Way rise like an approaching storm cloud.
Quoting DocNDswamp:


That that were, Largo. Quite an advanced civilization (as were the Olmecs preceding them)... However, I kinda believe the human sacrifice thing wasn't the best of karma for their future!
yes alot of cultures back then practiced sacrifice, religion and the gods etc..but the Maya amaze me, way back in history class,yes im ancient lol..but back then i got all A's for researching the Maya and handing in papers on them..I was young yes but it was fun doing the research..in the mid 80's when i was in the news biz, we were covering the economic summit in cancun mexico and i had 3 weeks there..in our off time we visitedf some of the ruins there..it was like i was travelling back into my past..seeing where the mayans lived etc..was pretty cool indeed...
Quoting hydrus:
Miss Cleo predicted that on 12/21/12 I would pack my bong and eat cookies.


LOL hydrus!
Whether there was an impending apocalypse on the way or not, right?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



So what's the solution? Assuming GW is A. A one world government imposing it's will at gunpoint? A dictatorship in the USA so we don't keep changing governments every 4 to 8 years? Kinda scary sounding.




How about, for all of us, some long-term, thoughtful plans not affiliated with any political entity, but for the good of the planet and all the peoples on it -plans that extend beyond blame, beyond greed, and beyond power?
91W looking very good.

667. yoboi
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2012

How the myth of fossil fuel abundance actually impedes progress on climate change

The great fear among those working to address climate change is that the seemingly vast resources of fossil fuels waiting to be burned will send the world hurtling toward certain catastrophe. By invoking fossil fuel abundance, climate activists believe that their argument for a rapid transition to alternative energy is made more persuasive. But, it is poor strategy to reinforce the myth of fossil fuel abundance when doing so actually makes many people less open to such an argument. And, as it turns out, the abundance argument is also contrary to the available data, logic and prudent risk management principles.

Here is what I mean. First, despite all the hype about marginal gains in U.S. oil production, world oil production has been on a plateau since 2005. Small gains in U.S. production have been offset by declining production in the rest of the world. The news for coal production is only slightly less discouraging as one study suggests that the rate of coal production worldwide could peak as early as 2025. In the United States, while coal tonnage has remained essentially flat from 1998 through 2011, energy content has actually declined. Has the available energy from U.S. coal production already peaked? We can't be sure. But the trend suggests caution....



http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2012/11/how- myth-of-fossil-fuel-abundance.html



false...
Quoting Bielle:


How about, for all of us, some long-term thoughtful plans not affiliated with any political entity, but for the good of the planet and all the peoples on it -plans that extend beyond blame, beyond greed, and beyond power?





Just how do you make this work?
Quoting eyeofbetsy:


I envy their dark skies before light pollution. I have to travel to west Texas to see the Milky Way rise like an approaching storm cloud.
It is amazing what you can see in the middle of the Atlantic on a clear and moonless night. One can see satellites, numerous shooting stars, and other things that we did not know what they were. they were fast movers though.
Quoting yoboi:



false...


I am doing a research paper for school (I'm a senior in HS) on climate change with the thesis that climate change is not caused by man or CO2. I have to write 100 pages and give a 2 hour presentation in May. :o
Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL hydrus!
Whether there was an impending apocalypse on the way or not, right?
It all works out in the end. I hope I,m smiling when it happens..:)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



So what's the solution? Assuming GW is A. A one world government imposing it's will at gunpoint? A dictatorship in the USA so we don't keep changing governments every 4 to 8 years? Kinda scary sounding.




You could start with:

1, mandatory total compensation cap of not more than 1 dollar less than the U.S. president. It seems reasonable enough. The purpose of this is to decentralize the power of corporate executives who make 10 times more income than they did a generation ago.

Most people in the top 1% of income could suffer a 10 times reduction in their annual income and would STILL be in the top 1%, and would still be 10 to 100 times wealthier than the average person. This is an IMMORAL and fraudulent system. This group includes many athletes and entertainers, but also many corporate founders and CEOs. They are currently rewarded by our obscene system at a rate of 10 to 100 times the historical norm for the "wealthy" people.

2, revise tax code so that every branch of any company on U.S. soil pays taxes to the U.S. and the relevant states, even if their corporate headquarters is over seas. As things stand, corporations are moving their "official" headquarters to Switzerland and paying no U.S. taxes even though 90% of their revenue comes from operations in the U.S. To me, this is treason and should allow the U.S. to forfeit their U.S. issued patents and re-issue them to loyal competitors.

Amazon should pay the same tax rate as all other retail and re-sale companies.

The two expatriated Facebook founders should have their assets frozen until they pay the back taxes on what they earned while U.S. citizens, because the technology and code for Facebook was developed using U.S. funds on U.S. and university property (paid by U.S. students and other citizens,) but then when they make it big, they take all their proceeds and expatriate. Again, treason.

While no one of these groups would make or break the bank, these obscenities add up to hundreds of billions of dollars per year, which is no small sum of money.

3, spend the tax revenues from 1 and 2 above on improving transportation and energy infrastructure and subsidizing development and installation of solar and wind energy technologies. This comes to about 2400 to 3000 dollars per household initially, and possibly about half that every year thereafter, which would pay for everyone's residential solar installation within a few years.


Conservatives can hate on "big government" all they like, but if we are ever going to move to some system that is practical over generational time scales it will require an economic model far different than what the majority of Republicans imagine (they only care about themselves, not what's good for the lower 80% nor the planet itself, nor even future generations). John Beyner can cry in public all he likes, but the Republican ideology absolutely will not work in a Type 1 civilization or anything remotely approaching that.

We need the audacity and the government oversight to plan and build projects that may take decades or even a generation to complete, and which are based on REAL WORLD economics, not Wall Street or corporate paper fraud economics.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:

Just how do you make this work?

Ever hear of the Montreal Protocol?

Quoting yoboi:



false...


Evidence?
676. VR46L
An update of the British Flooding ,

Floods in UK: More than 800 homes flooded as storms hit BBC News


Current Radar

Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I am doing a research paper for school (I'm a senior in HS) on climate change with the thesis that climate change is not caused by man or CO2. I have to write 100 pages and give a 2 hour presentation in May. :o
Just print out a hundred copies of this, and paste one on every page. Easy A guaranteed!

SEENO' style=

;-)
Quoting misanthrope:

Ever hear of the Montreal Protocol?



It can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol
The 12z ECMWF is more north with 91W as a Typhoon than in past runs as it gets close to the Phillipines.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2012

How the myth of fossil fuel abundance actually impedes progress on climate change

The great fear among those working to address climate change is that the seemingly vast resources of fossil fuels waiting to be burned will send the world hurtling toward certain catastrophe. By invoking fossil fuel abundance, climate activists believe that their argument for a rapid transition to alternative energy is made more persuasive. But, it is poor strategy to reinforce the myth of fossil fuel abundance when doing so actually makes many people less open to such an argument. And, as it turns out, the abundance argument is also contrary to the available data, logic and prudent risk management principles.

Here is what I mean. First, despite all the hype about marginal gains in U.S. oil production, world oil production has been on a plateau since 2005. Small gains in U.S. production have been offset by declining production in the rest of the world. The news for coal production is only slightly less discouraging as one study suggests that the rate of coal production worldwide could peak as early as 2025. In the United States, while coal tonnage has remained essentially flat from 1998 through 2011, energy content has actually declined. Has the available energy from U.S. coal production already peaked? We can't be sure. But the trend suggests caution....



http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2012/11/how- myth-of-fossil-fuel-abundance.html


Actually, the amount of natural gas in the U.S., and it's energy content, is so high that it could run the nation exclusively for well over 100 years. This does not even count oceanic hydrate deposits nor any potential Arctic claims.

Further, the amount of oil in the U.S., counting all known reserves of each type, could power the nation for another further 120 years or so, or power the entire world for about 30 years, though it would be pretty stupid strategy on the part of the U.S. to sell our oil to other nations.

In fact, if we had rational leadership in the U.S., then we should actually buy out foreign owned portions of BP and other energy companies.

And of course, there's actually even more known coal reserves in the world than anything else.


Only problem is that if you burn so much carbon-based fuel then the amount of CO2 and water vapor pollution will be unimaginably high, we could be talking about several parts per thousand, or even a full percent CO2 in the atmosphere by the time the KNOWN fossil fuels are burned up.

Now the energy companies who control all of this aren't particularly concerned about the environment or human health, just profits, so they will be more than happy to keep selling it, right up till the last molecule runs out, even if it kills half of all humanity.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





Just how do you make this work?


First, you acknowledge that you have a problem . . . :)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Look what's on CNN.....

NASA predicts total blackout on 23-25 Dec 2012 during alignment of Universe.

US scientists predict Universe change, total blackout of planet for 3 days from Dec 23 2012.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-al ignment.html

It is not the end of the world, it is an alignment of the Universe, where the Sun and the earth will align for the first time.
The Mayans didn't believe it was the end of the world per se, but a shift in the order of things as men relate to one another and their environment.

Their civilization was around long enough to notice macro changes in these relationships, and which they found curiously dependent upon the time cycles in the heavens that they carefully observed.

The farmer looking to the sky to know when to plant, as opposed to using temperature alone, is a simple example.

This view is shared by Western Civilization, but is spoken of differently. For example, the Biblical Creation story, explaining why the heavenly bodies were created.

"Let there be lights in the expanse of the sky to separate the day from the night, and let them serve as signs to mark seasons and days and years."

One of these big macro changes in the Judeo-Christian teaching has to do with what is known of as "the times of the Gentiles."

It speaks to a decline in every government and power on earth, except Israel, by natural forces, including the weather.

Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I am doing a research paper for school (I'm a senior in HS) on climate change with the thesis that climate change is not caused by man or CO2. I have to write 100 pages and give a 2 hour presentation in May. :o


Is this an Eng Lit, Sci-Fi course? (At first I thought that 2 hours was along time to talk about something that isn't true, but then I remembered that many politicians -among other professions which I am not going to list - do it as a matter of course.)
685. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


You could start with:

1, mandatory total compensation cap of not more than 1 dollar less than the U.S. president. It seems reasonable enough. The purpose of this is to decentralize the power of corporate executives who make 10 times more income than they did a generation ago.

Most people in the top 1% of income could suffer a 10 times reduction in their annual income and would STILL be in the top 1%, and would still be 10 to 100 times wealthier than the average person. This is an IMMORAL and fraudulent system. This group includes many athletes and entertainers, but also many corporate founders and CEOs. They are currently rewarded by our obscene system at a rate of 10 to 100 times the historical norm for the "wealthy" people.

2, revise tax code so that every branch of any company on U.S. soil pays taxes to the U.S. and the relevant states, even if their corporate headquarters is over seas. As things stand, corporations are moving their "official" headquarters to Switzerland and paying no U.S. taxes even though 90% of their revenue comes from operations in the U.S. To me, this is treason and should allow the U.S. to forfeit their U.S. issued patents and re-issue them to loyal competitors.

Amazon should pay the same tax rate as all other retail and re-sale companies.

The two expatriated Facebook founders should have their assets frozen until they pay the back taxes on what they earned while U.S. citizens, because the technology and code for Facebook was developed using U.S. funds on U.S. and university property (paid by U.S. students and other citizens,) but then when they make it big, they take all their proceeds and expatriate. Again, treason.

While no one of these groups would make or break the bank, these obscenities add up to hundreds of billions of dollars per year, which is no small sum of money.

3, spend the tax revenues from 1 and 2 above on improving transportation and energy infrastructure and subsidizing development and installation of solar and wind energy technologies. This comes to about 2400 to 3000 dollars per household initially, and possibly about half that every year thereafter, which would pay for everyone's residential solar installation within a few years.


Conservatives can hate on "big government" all they like, but if we are ever going to move to some system that is practical over generational time scales it will require an economic model far different than what the majority of Republicans imagine (they only care about themselves, not what's good for the lower 80% nor the planet itself, nor even future generations). John Beyner can cry in public all he likes, but the Republican ideology absolutely will not work in a Type 1 civilization or anything remotely approaching that.

We need the audacity and the government oversight to plan and build projects that may take decades or even a generation to complete, and which are based on REAL WORLD economics, not Wall Street or corporate paper fraud economics.



wow and ya want to add to the 16 trillion in debt...amazing
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





Just how do you make this work?



It's actually quite easy theoretically, conceptually, and even "financially" (in real world economics if Wall Street and fraudulent corporate paper economics didn't control everything).

The biggest hindrances are:

Wall Street/Corporate greed and lobbyists.
Other forms of corruption.
Ignorant general public.
Quoting yoboi:



wow and ya want to add to the 16 trillion in debt...amazing


It is self-funding as presented. (Whether that is realistic or not is a separate matter, but show us the quote that specifically calls for an increase in debt.)
Shale Gas Supply—Shale gas is a relatively new and important contribution to the North American supply. However, its availability does not represent anywhere near the magnitude that is commonly discussed and cited in the press, Berman said. He is familiar with the estimates that the United States has 100 years’ worth of secure gas production. But people misunderstand the difference between a “resource” and “reserve,” he said. Resource is what actually exists. Reserve is what can actually be commercially extracted. “A resource is everything that is in the ground without consideration of economic value,” he said. “People look at shale gas resources and say they are immense. However, the next question is, of that total volume of resource, how much can you make money on? And the answer is a much smaller percentage.”

In other words, by focusing on shale gas resources, people assume that reserves are much higher than they actually are. Reserves have been substantially overstated, he said.

Berman’s math: If you divide the “technically recoverable resource” of about 1,900 Tcf (trillion cubic feet) of gas, as identified by the Potential Gas Committee’s (PGC’s) report by annual U.S. consumption, you come up with 90 years. However, the PGC’s report also says the “probable recoverable resource” is only about 550 Tcf—approximately one fourth of the “technically recoverable resource.”

Furthermore, if you divide the 550 Tcf “probable recoverable resource” by three, which represents the component of the resource that is actually provided by shale gas, you get about 180 Tcf. (The remaining 370 Tcf includes conventional reservoirs plus non-shale/non-coalbed-methane unconventional reservoirs.)

The result: There is about eight years’ worth of shale gas supply available in the United States, he said.



http://www.publicpower.org/newsletters/ppmagazine detail.cfm?ItemNumber=36181&sn.ItemNumber=0
JMA upgrades 91W to TD:

TD
Issued at 19:20 UTC, 25 November 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N3%uFFFD25'(3.4%uFFFD)
E156%uFFFD55'(156.9%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)


Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N3%uFFFD35'(3.6%uFFFD)
E155%uFFFD05'(155.1%uFFFD)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)


Link
Does anyone know if the NWS in Buffalo stopped naming Lake Effect storms? I can only find their '98-99 to '10-11 seasons

Edit: I found it through 2011-2012.
691. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


Evidence?
Quoting Bielle:


Evidence?



Investing in clean energies | BP Investing in clean energies. Our emerging business and ventures team backs
new thinking and development. One way that BP stays on the front foot in terms of ...
www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId =9040516&contentId=7067662



big oil is doing there part how about you???
Wow RT! Don't hold back! Big government imposing its will by law ( gunpoint ) is the solution to all of our problems! What would be the unintended results of all that power in hands of so few?
Quoting Grothar:
The flooding down the street from us is very bad. The seawall is gone and it is getting worse in Fort Lauderdale.

Link

Mr. Grother,
We are sitting on the edge of our seats waiting for the update.
Have you reverted to using"gills," yet?
Did the rest of the road wash away?
What is going to happen to the through traffic if the Rest of the road washes away?
As you were only partially hit,( caressed,) by Sandy, has anybody seriously thought about what's going to happen next time one of those storms gets a bit closer?
As the woman in the video said. "We have to think about what we have got,while we still have got it!"
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I am doing a research paper for school (I'm a senior in HS) on climate change with the thesis that climate change is not caused by man or CO2. I have to write 100 pages and give a 2 hour presentation in May. :o


hahaha, and in college we had to do our final on proving that the tectonic plates theory was false.

fortunately the old guard passes away...
.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


... Now, I have a question: how does the Mississippi fall below 0.0 ft at St. Louis--what baseline is it measured from?


Excerpt from an article in The Columbia Daily Tribune, Columbia, MO:

Eyes on river level as corps cuts flow
Barge traffic threatened on dwindling Mississippi.
Saturday, November 24, 2012

"The Mississippi is nearing historic lows between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill. Barges already are required to carry lighter loads, and the middle of the river could be closed to barge traffic if the water level at St. Louis dips below minus 5 feet. It was at minus 0.45 feet yesterday.

"A zero river reading at St. Louis was established more than a century ago. It's the point at which people at that time thought the river would never drop below.

"The National Weather Service forecast for river levels extends only as far as Dec. 6. It calls for the Mississippi River to get to minus 3.7 feet at St. Louis by then. Businesses that ship on the river and their trade groups expect to get to minus 5 feet by around Dec. 10."

Read more.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Mr. Grother,
We are sitting on the edge of our seats waiting for the update.
Have you reverted to using"gills," yet?
Did the rest of the road wash away?
What is going to happen to the through traffic if the Rest of the road washes away?
As you were only partially hit,( caressed,) by Sandy, has anybody seriously thought about what's going to happen next time one of those storms gets a bit closer?
As the woman in the video said. "We have to think about what we have got,while we still have got it!"
PlazaRed.I'm just up the road from Gro. This IS a serious situation here in south Florida...The "GILL" statement made me bite my tongue
Quoting yoboi:



wow and ya want to add to the 16 trillion in debt...amazing


No. You obviously didn't read. This could be done quite easily while decreasing the deficit.

I could actually have the U.S. government deficit reduced to zero with much lower taxes, and erase the entire U.S. debt within a few decades, with no form of fraud involved, if they did what I REALLY would like to see done. The Republicans wouldn't go for that either, because they wouldn't be able to control everyone's minds any more, nor pad their own pockets enough.

How is that possible?

Well, government traditionally makes infrastructure: roads, bridges, water systems, etc; always has for thousands of years going back at least to the Romans and quite a bit farther in many cases.

Isn't it obvious that the government ought to buy out energy companies, and replace over time all things with long term planning of wind, solar, and hydro power? The U.S. can easily produce enough power from wind, solar and hydro alone to not only support it's own needs, but to have surplus to sell to Canada and Mexico in the process. We would become an exporter of "Energy" without actually exporting the material resources, since solar power is the source of all 3 of those renewables, and it is for human purposes an un-exaustable supply.



If not this generation, then who?

Kick the can down the road to another generation? What, while "we" pollute the world with more CO2 till we double the natural concentration and poison the oceans in the process?

then what? Tell your children or grandchildren, "Here you go, it's your problem now, we made the mess. We burned up all the dense 'emergency/special use' enegy reserves and destroyed the world in the process, but now you're stuck with it. LOL @ U. Have fun!"


Seriously, somebody is going to have to deal with these issues eventually in the next 1 to 3 generations, and if we don't now then it will just be that much harder when the world population reaches 9 or 10 billion in 2 to 3 more decades.

You just think we have pollution problems now. Wait till they have to cut down what's remaining of the rain forests to make more farms and ranches*, and every extra billion people makes an extra one tenth of one part per million CO2 per year just by breathing! That's right!


* While the farming thing could be solved by more greenhouses and vertical farming, the poorest third or so of the world population won't be able to afford the prices, so those trees likely get cut down either way.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I am doing a research paper for school (I'm a senior in HS) on climate change with the thesis that climate change is not caused by man or CO2. I have to write 100 pages and give a 2 hour presentation in May. :o


You should point out that the alarmist should be talking in probabilities instead of certainties and that modeling cannot acount for all of the earth's climate and is based on assumptions that must be reexamined and acknowledged as imperfect. Hell, just say your data sets can beat up their data sets.

Quoting yoboi:



Investing in clean energies | BP Investing in clean energies. Our emerging business and ventures team backs
new thinking and development. One way that BP stays on the front foot in terms of ...
www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId =9040516&contentId=7067662



big oil is doing there part how about you???


I can't access your link; my Adbloc says it is a malicious site. I suspect there is just a typo somewhere. What you say above, however laudatory, relates in no way I can see to the article about the lack of abundance of fossil fuel, the one you claim is false.
701. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


No. You obviously didn't read. This could be done quite easily while decreasing the deficit.

I could actually have the U.S. government deficit reduced to zero with much lower taxes, and erase the entire U.S. debt within a few decades, with no form of fraud involved, if they did what I REALLY would like to see done. The Republicans wouldn't go for that either, because they wouldn't be able to control everyone's minds any more, nor pad their own pockets enough.

How is that possible?

Well, government traditionally makes infrastructure: roads, bridges, water systems, etc; always has for thousands of years going back at least to the Romans and quite a bit farther in many cases.

Isn't it obvious that the government ought to buy out energy companies, and replace over time all things with long term planning of wind, solar, and hydro power? The U.S. can easily produce enough power from wind, solar and hydro alone to not only support it's own needs, but to have surplus to sell to Canada and Mexico in the process. We would become an exporter of "Energy" without actually exporting the material resources, since solar power is the source of all 3 of those renewables, and it is for human purposes an un-exaustable supply.



If not this generation, then who?

Kick the can down the road to another generation? What, while "we" pollute the world with more CO2 till we double the natural concentration and poison the oceans in the process?

then what? Tell your children or grandchildren, "Here you go, it's your problem now, we made the mess. We burned up all the dense 'emergency/special use' enegy reserves and destroyed the world in the process, but now you're stuck with it. LOL @ U. Have fun!"


Seriously, somebody is going to have to deal with these issues eventually in the next 1 to 3 generations, and if we don't now then it will just be that much harder when the world population reaches 9 or 10 billion in 2 to 3 more decades.

You just think we have pollution problems now. Wait till they have to cut down what's remaining of the rain forests to make more farms and ranches*, and every extra billion people makes an extra one tenth of one part per million CO2 per year just by breathing! That's right!


* While the farming thing could be solved by more greenhouses and vertical farming, the poorest third or so of the world population won't be able to afford the prices, so those trees likely get cut down either way.



ya have to much faith in gov to solve things...
702. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:
Were are having a severe outbreak of sunshine today. Not a cloud in the sky.


That comment brought a big smile to my face. It was a gentle funny comment , which I really appreciated!!! Thank you Gro
703. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


I can't access your link; my Adbloc says it is a malicious site. I suspect there is just a typo somewhere. What you say above, however laudatory, relates in no way I can see to the article about the lack of abundance of fossil fuel, the one you claim is false.



let me find another link..
Quoting yoboi:



ya have to much faith in gov to solve things...


I agree. Since when has the governmnet ever run anything efficiently?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Wow RT! Don't hold back! Big government imposing its will by law ( gunpoint ) is the solution to all of our problems! What would be the unintended results of all that power in hands of so few?


Gunpoint has nothing to do with it.

Your inability to comprehend the greater scheme of things is your problem.

These measures will become necessary at some point within the next generation or two, no matter what else happens.

706. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


I can't access your link; my Adbloc says it is a malicious site. I suspect there is just a typo somewhere. What you say above, however laudatory, relates in no way I can see to the article about the lack of abundance of fossil fuel, the one you claim is false.



BP Alternative Energy | United States | BP BP Alternative Energy is giving the world a choice of low-carbon power solutions,
making clean energy a reality for more people in more places.
www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=90 30176&contentId=7055742




Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
PlazaRed.I'm just up the road from Gro. This IS a serious situation here in south Florida...The "GILL" statement made me bite my tongue

I used the term "Gills," especially referring to Grothers timeless age and his statements on this blog of being surprised by the reemergence of the Greek gadget he was wondering about some time ago.
My interest from a long distance away, is mainly centers on the amount of land the US seems to be loosing! A lot of coastal shots show man made structures which were on land and are now in the sea or partially gone into sea ravaged ruins.
When this land is gone, its not going to come back, its a one way trip. If land is not sinking into the sea then the sea is eating it away.
Now just supposing that the global warming thing gets out of hand a bit more, the seas will continue to rise and the storms some say, will strengthen.
Given that Florida's coast appears to have very little high ground the, the land area of the state is more than likely to become significantly reduced in the near future.
708. BDAwx
It could be said that all severe weather is hazardous, but not all hazardous weather is severe. There is a distinction in that hazardous weather by itself doesn't do anything, while severe weather by itself can be damaging or life threatening.

Dense fog is hazardous. The fog itself doesn't do any damage, but if you interact with the fog (eg. try to drive a vehicle somewhere) you are risking your life (and your vehicle).

Meanwhile a severe thunderstorm would be both hazardous and severe as strong winds, hail, or tornadoes associated with the thunderstorm could cause damage or become deadly regardless of the degree to which you interact with it.

Basically, if you stay inside a home with some form of air conditioning, hazardous weather will not affect you directly, whereas severe weather will affect you directly.

Advisories/watches/warnings are issued for both hazardous and severe weather so I'm not sure why there is an issue.
Quoting yoboi:



BP Alternative Energy | United States | BP BP Alternative Energy is giving the world a choice of low-carbon power solutions,
making clean energy a reality for more people in more places.
www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=90 30176&contentId=7055742






This appears to be the same link. It takes me here for some reason: http://www.barnesandnoble.com/error.asp?dec=404 This is a "cannot find" error code on the Barnes and Noble site:

AdBloc changes bp. to bn. Anyone know why?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I agree. Since when has the governmnet ever run anything efficiently?


If not for an economic system based on personal profits and personal power of a few individuals, the government would be far more efficient.


Why are we borrowing from the "evil" communists if American capitalism is supposedly so superior?

How do the Russians, 1/3rd our population, have so much money that they can loan U.S. trillions? Or how to do the Chinese, about a few % as modernized as the U.S., also have so much money they can afford to loan the U.S. trillions?

So you see a problem?

While they are by no means the poster child for morality, and I'd never suggest a government that treats human beings the way those nations have historically, the fact remains that they must be doing quite a LOT of things in a much more practical and efficient manner than what is done in the United States.

Why is Germany now an EXPORTER of energy, even as they de-commission their nuclear power programs and convert to more and more wind and solar?! Even while people like yourself like to trumpet on the internet that wind and solar are impossible, etc!


"Government" even "Big Government" is absolutely NOT the problem in the U.S.

The problem is corruption and selfishness; the very goals of capitalism and monopoly.


Gunpoint has nothing to do with it.

Your descendants will BEG someone to build a rational, long-term renewable infrastructure.

Do you want that "someone" to be Exxon or Shell or BP, maybe? Or maybe you want it to be a Chinese or a Muslim owned oil company who can enslave your descendants to radical Islam or radical communism?

What I'm talking about isn't "communism," but just common sense. Like I said, it's going to be a required step in a few generations anyway, either because AGW will make things so bad there won't be a choice, or because the energy runs out, and there won't be a choice, which ever comes first. Take your pick.



By the way, government actually gets a bad rap many times. Let's take the temporary buy-out of automotive assets. The U.S. government actually managed to both save the industry AND made a net profit while doing so. Just goes to show your "government can't do anything efficiently" comment is uninformed.


Gunpoint has nothing to do with it.


What do you think backs up "laws"?


Your inability to comprehend the greater scheme of things is your problem.

Your unwillingness to to see that the kind of power you would give to a select few would one day be turned on you.



News...

Now TWC leans for a more NYC snowstorm
713. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


If not for an economic system based on personal profits and personal power of a few individuals, the government would be far more efficient.


Why are we borrowing from the "evil" communists if American capitalism is supposedly so superior?

How do the Russians, 1/3rd our population, have so much money that they can loan U.S. trillions? Or how to do the Chinese, about a few % as modernized as the U.S., also have so much money they can afford to loan the U.S. trillions?

So you see a problem?

While they are by no means the poster child for morality, and I'd never suggest a government that treats human beings the way those nations have historically, the fact remains that they must be doing quite a LOT of things in a much more practical and efficient manner than what is done in the United States.

Why is Germany now an EXPORTER of energy, even as they de-commission their nuclear power programs and convert to more and more wind and solar?! Even while people like yourself like to trumpet on the internet that wind and solar are impossible, etc!


"Government" even "Big Government" is absolutely NOT the problem in the U.S.

The problem is corruption and selfishness; the very goals of capitalism and monopoly.


Gunpoint has nothing to do with it.

Your descendants will BEG someone to build a rational, long-term renewable infrastructure.

Do you want that "someone" to be Exxon or Shell or BP, maybe? Or maybe you want it to be a Chinese or a Muslim owned oil company who can enslave your descendants to radical Islam or radical communism?

What I'm talking about isn't "communism," but just common sense. Like I said, it's going to be a required step in a few generations anyway, either because AGW will make things so bad there won't be a choice, or because the energy runs out, and there won't be a choice, which ever comes first. Take your pick.



By the way, government actually gets a bad rap many times. Let's take the temporary buy-out of automotive assets. The U.S. government actually managed to both save the industry AND made a net profit while doing so. Just goes to show your "government can't do anything efficiently" comment is uninformed.



tell that to the gm sharholders whose stock is still at half what it use to be
Quoting yoboi:



tell that to the gm sharholders whose stock is still at half what it use to be
lol
As always this is pointless.

Your "world view" just doesn't work for me.


Have a nice eve. I'm done with this for now.
Quoting Bielle:


This appears to be the same link. It takes me here for some reason: http://www.barnesandnoble.com/error.asp?dec=404 This is a "cannot find" error code on the Barnes and Noble site:

AdBloc changes bp. to bn. Anyone know why?


You might want to check your AdBlock prefs settings, and turn off auto-correct if it is enabled. I tried out this new feature a bit shortly after it was released. Didn't do a very good job for me. Tried to "correct" some of the URLs I had stored as bookmarks! Don't think it's quite ready for prime time, but YMMV.
Quoting yoboi:



tell that to the gm sharholders whose stock is still at half what it use to be


It would have been zero in a bankruptcy. Shareholder value is a corporate problem, not a government one.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
22:30 PM RET November 25 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Boldwin (999 hPa) located at 15.7S 72.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
===============
40-60 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center in the northwestern quadrant, extending up to 960 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80-100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.5S 69.6E - Depression Se Comblant
48 HRS: 18.9S 67.1E - Depression Se Comblant

Additional Information
========================
According to recent microwave imagery, low level circulation center, always quite difficult to locate, seems to be located now west northwest out of the convection.

In the south of the upper level ridge axis, northwesterly vertical wind shear keeps on increasing near the center of Boldwin.

The convective activity mainly exists in the southeastern quadrant. Wind shear is expected to keeps on increasing as the system will undergo the influence of an approaching upper level trough. System is therefore expected to keeps on weakening rapidly within the next 24 hours as it tracks west southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures.

Beyond system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south, and turn southwards and merge with this trough on Wednesday.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
3:00 AM JST November 26 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 3.4N 156.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 3.6N 155.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
JTWC joins JMA in upgrading 91W to Tropical Depression 26W:



CPC continuing to expect warmth for nearly the entire US, with Alaska being the major exception:



8-14 day is similar, just not as extreme in the colors:

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
As always this is pointless.

Your "world view" just doesn't work for me.


Have a nice eve. I'm done with this for now.


So what?

You're one person among 7 billion and rising.


You make my point for me.

It's all about you, you, you, because of your selfish capitalistic ideology.


Your world view doesn't work for anyone in the long term, and even in the short term only works for about 1% or so, of which you probably are not a member, but you're too ignorant to realize.
GM and Chrysler went through bankruptcy court, the government did not save the auto industry, the government just changed the outcome for favored parties...the government chose to throw out over 200 years of civil law that protected secured creditors in favor of entities that had no standing in the bankruptcy hearings, ..and the stock would be no worse off today possibly better...but the law would have been followed...and GM still owes the US taxpayer Billions.....
What do you think backs up "laws"?


Generally force and the fear of consequences, primarily because humans are not fundamentally moral creatures, but that's for another discussion.

I don't know what you claim to believe religiously or spiritually, but if you are a self-professed conservative in the U.S., you probably claim to be Christian. The rule of law, through force when necessary, is in fact a Biblical doctrine. (See Romans 13). I say "claim to be" because in the present time most of them in fact do make such a claim, but keep few, if any, of the teachings they claim to believe.

anyway...

Your unwillingness to to see that the kind of power you would give to a select few would one day be turned on you.


A "Select few" already has that much power. You only reveal your own ignorance.

The U.S. government could blow you and your family to hell and back right now, and just say you were a terrorist, and nobody would even question it.

Yet they have not done that. Why? Maybe the gov'ment ain't so bad for us after all.

Any corporation who wanted to could plant something on you or a family member and frame you for a crime, or a bank could call your employer (of whom they probably own a majority share,) have you fired so they can force foreclosure on your house a few months later.


At least I get to vote for who's in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

I don't get a vote for who runs all the energy companies.

So which should I fear more?!

The one I have no control over at all, or the one I at least get a vote every few years?!
Having been entirely off-topic all day, I apologize and promise to stay out of non-weather/climate discussions.
Quoting Bielle:
Having been entirely off-topic all day, I apologize and promise to stay out of non-weather/climate discussions.



The discussion we're having actually IS about climate. You just have to follow the whole thing to see why.

Climate and energy are very much corporate, political, and governmental issues.
Who wants to talk about new TD 26W at WPAC? Here is JTWC first warning:

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251651NOV2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 3.6N 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 3.6N 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 4.2N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 4.7N 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 5.1N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 5.5N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 6.3N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 7.4N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 8.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 3.7N 156.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 251651Z NOV 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 251700). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z,
261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

Quoting RTSplayer:


So what?

You're one person among 7 billion and rising.


You make my point for me.

It's all about you, you, you, because of your selfish capitalistic ideology.


Your world view doesn't work for anyone in the long term, and even in the short term only works for about 1% or so, of which you probably are not a member, but you're too ignorant to realize.




This had been a fairly civil debate up until you refer to me as ignorant and selfish.

I've been called worse things by better people.
See ya.


Quoting yoboi:



tell that to the gm sharholders whose stock is still at half what it use to be


Well, friend, if the corporations had done a good job at their chosen fields, they would never have gone bankrupt in the first place.

This actually all ties into what I was saying earlier.

1, Overpaid CEO (makes more money than 1000 employees combined).

Gee, if they paid these fools what they were really worth instead of 10 or 100 times as much, they probably would save half their losses right there, before they even change anything else.

2, Make a product that's actually worth buying. Actually, the problem here is caused by the PEOPLE in this case, because idiot Americans prefer to buy bigger and bigger cars and trucks that can't even fit in a parking space, which is one factor that drove prices up so high and fuel efficiency down so low.

Another example of how Capitalism fails, particularly "consumer driven" capitalism, because you put decision making in the hands of the average joe idiot, instead of somebody that has a brain and at least uses half of it (which would be far above average apparently).

Under consumerism we do what the idiots want. Idiots want to watch professional wrestling 4 or 5 nights per week. Idiots want to drive over-sized vehicles and pay twice as much for gasoline to get to and from work. Idiots plan for this year, and forget 5, 10, or 20 years out. Idiots pay actors and athletes and coaches ten to fifty times the President's salary, and 100 times the income of an engineer or doctor. Idiots want no gun laws (for some reason,) so that every psychotic school boy can unload clips of 30-something rouands on an innocent crowd, and refuse to admit even after the fact that most of the handguns that are legal right now should be banned.

Do you really, REALLY want capitalistic corporations, or the average joe consumer (whether individually or collectively,) making all the decisions?! Really?!

3, Maybe if the "American" auto companies didn't outsource so much of the labor and manufacturing to companies over seas the unemployment rate in the U.S. would be lower, resulting in more people able to have money to buy more cars. Same could be said for much of our tech industry.

Actually, the Chinese have one-upped the U.S. and are fully automating many of their tech production facilities, but that's another matter. Point is our companies sold out our technology to other nations, and then those nations' companies are annihilating the labor market. They will have a monopoly on technology, even though it was invented in the U.S. in many cases!

Makes no sense does it? The "Good guy" Capitalists sold all the technology to the "evil" communists because they could do the job of production better, and now the "evil" communists figured out how to do the job so well they don't even need labor at all any more; defeating the whole purpose of the U.S. outsourcing the labor, as had the lazy U.S. capitalistic corporations developed their own intelligent production process they'd still be doing it all here.


Do you need some more instruction on current events in the tech industry or automotive industries? Certainly, we all do.

You're not understanding the scale of the U.S. problem. The unemployment rate is so high because the CAPITALISTS outsourced all the labor, and then the foreign governments replaced all the labor with robots...invented largely in the U.S. and themselves outsourced...by the capitalists.

The CEO doesn't give a damn about you, because he makes more money this way, but normal people don't and cannot, and they're lucky if they even have a job that pays the cost to get back to work right now.

If they'd done what was right for the civilization, rather than what was most profitable to themselves, most of this problem wouldn't exist.
If corp america only understood..its the average working person,by the sheer numbers of them..that are the ones who BUY all their products and services..and that being said..i cannot fathom..WHY..they insist on paying dirt cheap wages to them..HELLO corp america..PAY the workers GOOD and your products will be sold..forget that stiff at the top of the ladder..HE/SHE is only as good as the products fly off the selves..IF the working american can hardly pay his/her own bills..HOW do you expect them..to BUY your products?....................ive said this so many times over my lifetime..it falls on deaf ears........you know how corp america deals with this?..yes they gave the workers more in their paychecks..THEN..doubled the prices of their goods they sell...........back to square one...the worker cannot afford to buy the products these companies need to sell
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




This had been a fairly civil debate up until you refer to me as ignorant and selfish.

I've been called worse things by better people.
See ya.




Being ignorant can be fixed.

Most of this is pretty obvious if you actually bother to check the facts about it, and change your way of thinking to long term management and productivity, rather than what appears to be best for yourself in a one to five year period.

Ignoring anyone who disagrees with you, or confronts you with facts you don't like, won't change those facts.


And yes, the primary reason people oppose doing anything about energy issues boils down to selfishness.

NIMBY - too vain/selfish.
Costs too much (short term) - too selfish.
Doesn't make me richer (CEO) - Too selfish

Ironically, if done properly, Wind and solar cost an order of magnitude less over the long term than does coal power, because you never need to buy fuel, you only need to buy a turbine and land, which coal power also needs to buy anyway.


In fact, your own (perceived) self interest "Doesn't work for me," is what you cited in your post. You didn't give a rational or logical argument for opposing a more holistic alternative energy program!



===

so what would your plan be, PensacolaDoug?

I mean, besides ignoring it and waiting for your grand-kids to fix it?
732. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


It would have been zero in a bankruptcy. Shareholder value is a corporate problem, not a government one.


if it's not a gov problem why did the gov step in???
case in point..in the mid 60's a brand new car cost what? $3,500...now...the average car costs what..$30,000?...so in all these years..did the average workers salary go up to match that increase?..i dare say NOT....so HOW do these companies expect to stay in business?
Your thought process is 100% communist. I bet you would look cute wearing one of those green caps that Castro wears.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Well, friend, if the corporations had done a good job at their chosen fields, they would never have gone bankrupt in the first place.

This actually all ties into what I was saying earlier.

1, Overpaid CEO (makes more money than 1000 employees combined).

Gee, if they paid these fools what they were really worth instead of 10 or 100 times as much, they probably would save half their losses right there, before they even change anything else.

2, Make a product that's actually worth buying. Actually, the problem here is caused by the PEOPLE in this case, because idiot Americans prefer to buy bigger and bigger cars and trucks that can't even fit in a parking space, which is one factor that drove prices up so high and fuel efficiency down so low.

Another example of how Capitalism fails, particularly "consumer driven" capitalism, because you put decision making in the hands of the average joe idiot, instead of somebody that has a brain and at least uses half of it (which would be far above average apparently).

Under consumerism we do what the idiots want. Idiots want to watch professional wrestling 4 or 5 nights per week. Idiots want to drive over-sized vehicles and pay twice as much for gasoline to get to and from work. Idiots plan for this year, and forget 5, 10, or 20 years out. Idiots pay actors and athletes and coaches ten to fifty times the President's salary, and 100 times the income of an engineer or doctor. Idiots want no gun laws (for some reason,) so that every psychotic school boy can unload clips of 30-something rouands on an innocent crowd, and refuse to admit even after the fact that most of the handguns that are legal right now should be banned.

Do you really, REALLY want capitalistic corporations, or the average joe consumer (whether individually or collectively,) making all the decisions?! Really?!

3, Maybe if the "American" auto companies didn't outsource so much of the labor and manufacturing to companies over seas the unemployment rate in the U.S. would be lower, resulting in more people able to have money to buy more cars. Same could be said for much of our tech industry.

Actually, the Chinese have one-upped the U.S. and are fully automating many of their tech production facilities, but that's another matter. Point is our companies sold out our technology to other nations, and then those nations' companies are annihilating the labor market. They will have a monopoly on technology, even though it was invented in the U.S. in many cases!

Makes no sense does it? The "Good guy" Capitalists sold all the technology to the "evil" communists because they could do the job of production better, and now the "evil" communists figured out how to do the job so well they don't even need labor at all any more; defeating the whole purpose of the U.S. outsourcing the labor, as had the lazy U.S. capitalistic corporations developed their own intelligent production process they'd still be doing it all here.


Do you need some more instruction on current events in the tech industry or automotive industries? Certainly, we all do.

You're not understanding the scale of the U.S. problem. The unemployment rate is so high because the CAPITALISTS outsourced all the labor, and then the foreign governments replaced all the labor with robots...invented largely in the U.S. and themselves outsourced...by the capitalists.

The CEO doesn't give a damn about you, because he makes more money this way, but normal people don't and cannot, and they're lucky if they even have a job that pays the cost to get back to work right now.

If they'd done what was right for the civilization, rather than what was most profitable to themselves, most of this problem wouldn't exist.
735. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


Well, friend, if the corporations had done a good job at their chosen fields, they would never have gone bankrupt in the first place.

This actually all ties into what I was saying earlier.

1, Overpaid CEO (makes more money than 1000 employees combined).

Gee, if they paid these fools what they were really worth instead of 10 or 100 times as much, they probably would save half their losses right there, before they even change anything else.

2, Make a product that's actually worth buying. Actually, the problem here is caused by the PEOPLE in this case, because idiot Americans prefer to buy bigger and bigger cars and trucks that can't even fit in a parking space, which is one factor that drove prices up so high and fuel efficiency down so low.

Another example of how Capitalism fails, particularly "consumer driven" capitalism, because you put decision making in the hands of the average joe idiot, instead of somebody that has a brain and at least uses half of it (which would be far above average apparently).

Under consumerism we do what the idiots want. Idiots want to watch professional wrestling 4 or 5 nights per week. Idiots want to drive over-sized vehicles and pay twice as much for gasoline to get to and from work. Idiots plan for this year, and forget 5, 10, or 20 years out. Idiots pay actors and athletes and coaches ten to fifty times the President's salary, and 100 times the income of an engineer or doctor. Idiots want no gun laws (for some reason,) so that every psychotic school boy can unload clips of 30-something rouands on an innocent crowd, and refuse to admit even after the fact that most of the handguns that are legal right now should be banned.

Do you really, REALLY want capitalistic corporations, or the average joe consumer (whether individually or collectively,) making all the decisions?! Really?!

3, Maybe if the "American" auto companies didn't outsource so much of the labor and manufacturing to companies over seas the unemployment rate in the U.S. would be lower, resulting in more people able to have money to buy more cars. Same could be said for much of our tech industry.

Actually, the Chinese have one-upped the U.S. and are fully automating many of their tech production facilities, but that's another matter. Point is our companies sold out our technology to other nations, and then those nations' companies are annihilating the labor market. They will have a monopoly on technology, even though it was invented in the U.S. in many cases!

Makes no sense does it? The "Good guy" Capitalists sold all the technology to the "evil" communists because they could do the job of production better, and now the "evil" communists figured out how to do the job so well they don't even need labor at all any more; defeating the whole purpose of the U.S. outsourcing the labor, as had the lazy U.S. capitalistic corporations developed their own intelligent production process they'd still be doing it all here.


Do you need some more instruction on current events in the tech industry or automotive industries? Certainly, we all do.

You're not understanding the scale of the U.S. problem. The unemployment rate is so high because the CAPITALISTS outsourced all the labor, and then the foreign governments replaced all the labor with robots...invented largely in the U.S. and themselves outsourced...by the capitalists.

The CEO doesn't give a damn about you, because he makes more money this way, but normal people don't and cannot, and they're lucky if they even have a job that pays the cost to get back to work right now.

If they'd done what was right for the civilization, rather than what was most profitable to themselves, most of this problem wouldn't exist.




why do you think we should all make the same amount of money??? why do ya push that agenda????
Back to the weather .. 26W

737. yoboi
Quoting LargoFl:
case in point..in the mid 60's a brand new car cost what? $3,500...now...the average car costs what..$30,000?...so in all these years..did the average workers salary go up to match that increase?..i dare say NOT....so HOW do these companies expect to stay in business?



they stay in business with an obama bail out....
Quoting RTSplayer:


Well, friend, if the corporations had done a good job at their chosen fields, they would never have gone bankrupt in the first place.

This actually all ties into what I was saying earlier.

1, Overpaid CEO (makes more money than 1000 employees combined).

Gee, if they paid these fools what they were really worth instead of 10 or 100 times as much, they probably would save half their losses right there, before they even change anything else.

2, Make a product that's actually worth buying. Actually, the problem here is caused by the PEOPLE in this case, because idiot Americans prefer to buy bigger and bigger cars and trucks that can't even fit in a parking space, which is one factor that drove prices up so high and fuel efficiency down so low.

Another example of how Capitalism fails, particularly "consumer driven" capitalism, because you put decision making in the hands of the average joe idiot, instead of somebody that has a brain and at least uses half of it (which would be far above average apparently).

Under consumerism we do what the idiots want. Idiots want to watch professional wrestling 4 or 5 nights per week. Idiots want to drive over-sized vehicles and pay twice as much for gasoline to get to and from work. Idiots plan for this year, and forget 5, 10, or 20 years out. Idiots pay actors and athletes and coaches ten to fifty times the President's salary, and 100 times the income of an engineer or doctor. Idiots want no gun laws (for some reason,) so that every psychotic school boy can unload clips of 30-something rouands on an innocent crowd, and refuse to admit even after the fact that most of the handguns that are legal right now should be banned.

Do you really, REALLY want capitalistic corporations, or the average joe consumer (whether individually or collectively,) making all the decisions?! Really?!

3, Maybe if the "American" auto companies didn't outsource so much of the labor and manufacturing to companies over seas the unemployment rate in the U.S. would be lower, resulting in more people able to have money to buy more cars. Same could be said for much of our tech industry.

Actually, the Chinese have one-upped the U.S. and are fully automating many of their tech production facilities, but that's another matter. Point is our companies sold out our technology to other nations, and then those nations' companies are annihilating the labor market. They will have a monopoly on technology, even though it was invented in the U.S. in many cases!

Makes no sense does it? The "Good guy" Capitalists sold all the technology to the "evil" communists because they could do the job of production better, and now the "evil" communists figured out how to do the job so well they don't even need labor at all any more; defeating the whole purpose of the U.S. outsourcing the labor, as had the lazy U.S. capitalistic corporations developed their own intelligent production process they'd still be doing it all here.


Do you need some more instruction on current events in the tech industry or automotive industries? Certainly, we all do.

You're not understanding the scale of the U.S. problem. The unemployment rate is so high because the CAPITALISTS outsourced all the labor, and then the foreign governments replaced all the labor with robots...invented largely in the U.S. and themselves outsourced...by the capitalists.

The CEO doesn't give a damn about you, because he makes more money this way, but normal people don't and cannot, and they're lucky if they even have a job that pays the cost to get back to work right now.

If they'd done what was right for the civilization, rather than what was most profitable to themselves, most of this problem wouldn't exist.
How's Venezuela working out? LOL
Quoting LargoFl:
If corp america only understood..its the average working person,by the sheer numbers of them..that are the ones who BUY all their products and services..and that being said..i cannot fathom..WHY..they insist on paying dirt cheap wages to them..HELLO corp america..PAY the workers GOOD and your products will be sold..forget that stiff at the top of the ladder..HE/SHE is only as good as the products fly off the selves..IF the working american can hardly pay his/her own bills..HOW do you expect them..to BUY your products?....................ive said this so many times over my lifetime..it falls on deaf ears........you know how corp america deals with this?..yes they gave the workers more in their paychecks..THEN..doubled the prices of their goods they sell...........back to square one...the worker cannot afford to buy the products these companies need to sell


You are exactly right.

The Republicans want to hide these facts from people, but the relative profits of the wealthy compared to the average is currently at least 10 times greater than historical norms...yet they still complain about their tax rate, even though the tax rate on the wealthy is actually the lowest it's been in about 80 years!


Just yesterday, I even caught a LIBERAL news media agency accidentally making a factual statement in a way which could accidentally mislead an audience to a pro-ultra-conservative stance.

They claimed that the "average taxes" of Americans would go up by $3,500, which is actually a "true" statement as given, but gives a totally false impression to the listener.

In reality, the average American will see no tax increase at all, as most of the money in this "average" comes from the wealthy, BUT the extra amount the wealthy would be paying is an insignificant blip compared to what they actually make in income.


If you took a CEO who made exactly the $13 million per year average (admittedly itself a slightly misleading statistic,) and take away $10 million of his annual salary and divide it up among 1,000 employees, they could all have a $10,000 per year wage/salary increase to the people who actually MAKE the products and services, WITHOUT changing anything else in the company...and that's just by cutting ONE person's over-paid salary! The CEO would STILL be making $3 million per year, or 67 times the average U.S. household annual income!!


I doubt Pensacola Doug would bother reading this, but I wonder if he's ever bothered to even think about this?

Does anyone think normal people benefit from the existing system more than they would under a system more like what I proposed above? Really?
Quoting yoboi:



they stay in business with an obama bail out....
yes in part thats true,but if he had not made that happen,how many people are emplyed by the affected car companies..think about that for a minute..millions i would assume..now add to that..all the car part suppliers..more millions out of work..now think about the people who give the suppliers their raw materials//more millions out of work...........so what happens then?..economic collapse like we have never seen before in this country..oh the rich..they will be ok ..but everyone on here now?..poof we go....I dont really care for Obama..but i understand why he did what he did
741. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


You are exactly right.

The Republicans want to hide these facts from people, but the relative profits of the wealthy compared to the average is currently at least 10 times greater than historical norms...yet they still complain about their tax rate, even though the tax rate on the wealthy is actually the lowest it's been in about 80 years!


Just yesterday, I even caught a LIBERAL news media agency accidentally making a factual statement in a way which could accidentally mislead an audience to a pro-ultra-conservative stance.

They claimed that the "average taxes" of Americans would go up by $3,500, which is actually a "true" statement as given, but gives a totally false impression to the listener.

In reality, the average American will see no tax increase at all, as most of the money in this "average" comes from the wealthy, BUT the extra amount the wealthy would be paying is an insignificant blip compared to what they actually make in income.


If you took a CEO who made exactly the $13 million per year average (admittedly itself a slightly misleading statistic,) and take away $10 million of his annual salary and divide it up among 1,000 employees, they could all have a $10,000 per year wage/salary increase to the people who actually MAKE the products and services, WITHOUT changing anything else in the company...and that's just by cutting ONE person's over-paid salary! The CEO would STILL be making $3 million per year, or 67 times the average U.S. household annual income!!


I doubt Pensacola Doug would bother reading this, but I wonder if he's ever bothered to even think about this?

Does anyone think normal people benefit from the existing system more than they would under a system more like what I proposed above? Really?



take take take is all you say....what ever happened with earn earn earn.....
742. yoboi
Quoting LargoFl:
yes in part thats true,but if he had not made that happen,how many people are emplyed by the affected car companies..think about that for a minute..millions i would assume..now add to that..all the car part suppliers..more millions out of work..now think about the people who give the suppliers their raw materials//more millions out of work...........so what happens then?..economic collapse like we have never seen before in this country..oh the rich..they will be ok ..but everyone on here now?..poof we go....I dont really care for Obama..but i understand why he did what he did



ford did not take the bail out and look what company is doing better now FORD.....
Quoting yoboi:



take take take is all you say....what ever happened with earn earn earn.....



He keeps mentioning me too.

RT? You can stop now.
Quoting yoboi:


if it's not a gov problem why did the gov step in???



Wow you don't pay attention do you?

The government told you why the government did what it did.

The industries are so large and so vital to our infrastructure and what was once our labor markets so that, had the government allowed them to fail, it would have destroyed even bigger segments of the economy. If you laid off all those automotive industry workers, how many more homes would be foreclosed? How many more small businesses such as restaurants and convenience stores in the surrounding area would go broke? They'd all lose their businesses and investments through no fault of their own. The nearest big hospital would go broke and close down because everyone would move away, and on and on down the entire chain.

If the American automotive industries failed then that much more of a monopoly would be had by foreign companies. Else they'd be divided up on the stock market by some combination of foreigners, banks (most of which are actually owned in a majority share by foreigners,) or whatever other agency happens to have the funds. Either way it wouldn't be a good thing.

Pay attention.
the 18z gfs has DOOM for CA
Quoting Tazmanian:
the 18z gfs has DOOM for CA


You going to get snow Taz ??

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
800 AM CHST MON NOV 26 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI STATE
AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.8 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
125 MILES EAST OF NUKUORO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...3.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
156.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

748. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:



Wow you don't pay attention do you?

The government told you why the government did what it did.

The industries are so large and so vital to our infrastructure and what was once our labor markets so that, had the government allowed them to fail, it would have destroyed even bigger segments of the economy. If you laid off all those automotive industry workers, how many more homes would be foreclosed? How many more small businesses such as restaurants and convenience stores in the surrounding area would go broke? They'd all lose their businesses and investments through no fault of their own. The nearest big hospital would go broke and close down because everyone would move away, and on and on down the entire chain.

If the American automotive industries failed then that much more of a monopoly would be had by foreign companies. Else they'd be divided up on the stock market by some combination of foreigners, banks (most of which are actually owned in a majority share by foreigners,) or whatever other agency happens to have the funds. Either way it wouldn't be a good thing.

Pay attention.



ford did not take the bail out why is ford doing better?????
Quoting whitewabit:


You going to get snow Taz ??




this is from the 18z so far


its forcasting up too 18" of rain


750. beell
If you took a CEO who made exactly the $13 million per year average (admittedly itself a slightly misleading statistic,) and take away $10 million of his annual salary and divide it up among 1,000 employees, they could all have a $10,000 per year wage/salary increase to the people who actually MAKE the products and services, WITHOUT changing anything else in the company...and that's just by cutting ONE person's over-paid salary! The CEO would STILL be making $3 million per year, or 67 times the average U.S. household annual income!!

I think you have a very naive view of just how many people are employed by Fortune 50 companies.
751. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




this is from the 18z so far


its forcasting up too 18" of rain





elnino??
Quoting yoboi:



elnino??



no
753. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:



no



that's alot of rain for not being in elnino...
Quoting Tazmanian:




this is from the 18z so far


its forcasting up too 18" of rain




That's a lot of rain Taz ..
Quoting yoboi:




why do you think we should all make the same amount of money??? why do ya push that agenda????


Never said that. You read something into my statement that wasn't there.


I think if people are worth more they should make more, but nobody is worth what corporate CEO's make, and I mean absolutely nobody, and least of all entertainers and athletes.

What is a fair standard of "Wealthy"?

Should the people at the top of the curve make 1000 times the median income, even when they could settle for 100 times and give most of their employees a couple thousand dollars to maybe 10,000 per year raise? Do you really believe that's fair?

You know how much money that is over an individual employee's career? That's far more than most people end up saving for retirement currently in their life time, even on the low-ball end, and if you got to the middle or high end it could pay for a house. In fact, it's a big part of the reason they don't have money to save for retirement currently, because they're being screwed by their employer(s).

Are executives and entertainers really worth a million, ten million or more per year? Or is that just a lie everyone has been brainwashed to believe?


Do you really believe Mark Zuckerberg "should" make as much money as he does? For what? Starting a failed advertising agency which masquerades as a gossip engine?

Do you really believe oil executives or automotive executives should make as much money as they do? Or even executives in financial corporations? After all, they too contributed enormously to the recession. How does a financial firm which was only paying one fourth of one percent on an IRA (but presumably should have been making ten times that in the stock market,) how did they go broke, and have nothing to show for it? Same for 401k investments. All those people's investments evaporated to nothing, without public warning, with no assets, not on paper or in material assets, to show for it?! I still have a strong suspicion much of the money was actually bilked away and hidden in foreign accounts or assets somewhere. Do you REALLY think they, or anyone, deserves the salary and benefits they receive?


It's absolutely ridiculous.

So at what point would you admit all of these people are severely over paid to everyone else's detriment?!
Here is the Prognostic Reasoning from JTWC for TD 26W.

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 251925Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
FRAGMENTED AND THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.
THEREFORE, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THIS STRUCTURE AS
WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE LLCC
WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 26W
APPEARS TO BE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STR BUT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS
IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE
STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO NOGAPS, GFS AND WBAR,
WHICH ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF, GFDN,
EGRR AND JGSM TRACKERS ALL POORLY INITIALIZE THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AND WERE UNAVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE LACK OF DYNAMIC AIDS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND
ANALYSES ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG STR AND SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL BE A STRAIGHT-
RUNNER. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE
LLCC CONSOLIDATES BUT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD YAP AND WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO A PEAK NEAR 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS
POSITIONED FASTER BUT CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
6:00 AM JST November 26 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 3.4N 156.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 3.6N 155.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
Quoting Dragod66:
I'm looking for a snow forecast for Wednesday and Thursday for Eastern Us/Canada... Anyone help me out?
Sure. Snow Flurry Felicia will approach the NYC area on Tuesday, immediately followed by Partly Cloudy and Blustery System Ignatious.
Greetings from central Missouri. Long time lurker, first time poster.

The weather has been docile in the area for some time. I'm excited at the prospects of snow flurries here tomorrow before temperatures rebound into the 50's later in the week.



Barrow Alaska webcam.
I would not want to live there.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I agree. Since when has the governmnet ever run anything efficiently?


This is a common fallacious argument. I could name a number of great government agencies like the CDC, NTSB, FCC, Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), etc, and you could name a bunch of poorly run ones just the same. Making a black and white argument about government doesn't work. Yes there are agencies with problems, but there are some shining examples of government efficiency.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Barrow Alaska webcam.
I would not want to live there.


Temps in the 90's and dewpoints in the 70's most of the year? I would not want to live there. :)

Different strokes for different folks, as we used to say.
Quoting captainmark:
Your thought process is 100% communist. I bet you would look cute wearing one of those green caps that Castro wears.


Not really.

I'm not a communist.

It's easy enough for one to spit out the word "communist" invoking some scare of cold war era Russian, or China's oppression of Christians (yet allegedly Christian Republicans insist on selling everyone out to them).

Yet that's not me, and not by quite a long margin.

It's easy to poison the well by immediately associating ideas of social justice with "OMG, communism! Run for the hills." As though "Capitalism" has some sort of monopoly on morality within government or fiscal policies. One need only look at the history of the U.S. to realize that our non-communist ancestors committed not one, but two of the greatest human atrocities in recent world history: via the "Trail of Tears" and the butchering of Native Americans, and by being one of the last nations to abolish slavery. It seems our democracy committed worse crimes than nearly anyone since about 2000 years prior.


Yet, when a communist idea ends up making the most sense, hey, let's be a communist!

China's birth limitation is a very wise and moral thing, as it turns out, because it protects the children from the foolishness of their parents, who would otherwise have more children than they can reasonably support. If such a policy were implemented in other, such as many African nations, then within a generation much of their poverty and violence would be halted. Well, most of the "Smart" couples in the U.S. are already self-regulating to just one or two children, because they recognize the financial wisdom in this (or else they may just be selfish in some cases and want to save for their own desires, so they do the right thing for the wrong reasons in some cases,) but either way, that's better than doing the wrong thing for the right reasons, or doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons.

Gasp, *shock* the horror! People shouldn't have more children than is reasonable.

I say this a a middle child among three, but I had great aunts and uncles who were part of a "liter" of 12 to 16 kids, and they were all poor as dirt because of it. I consider it child abuse. I even consider the "nineteen kids and counting" people on television as child abuse, in spite of the fact they make more money. Their relationships with their children are impersonal. They are treated as numbers, almost like pets or livestock, but I suppose not quite.

Anyway, ten kids having ten kids is immoral, and perhaps we've reached the point in the world where three kids having three kids is immoral, because the world can't contain their needs.


I try to be a realist, although much of a futurist as well.

I just want realistic long term planning between people and government to solve problems permanently for the good of everyone, not just the short term profits of a few selfish individuals, and I recognize that what exists in the U.S. currently is by no means fair nor realistic.

You may say something snide, such as "life's not fair," well, it could certainly be a lot more fair than it is now anyway, it's within the power of this generation to make it so, perhaps more than any previous.


Our very declaration of independence declares that all men are created equal.

Well, perhaps that's not true, but the point is we ought to strive to have equal rights, and modern capitalism does not actually provide that at all.

What we have today is actually much more like Orwell's Animal Farm, where the pigs changed it to say, "All animals are created equal, but some or more equal than others!"

It was claimed that the book was a satire of communism, but I rather think he may well have been mocking the U.S. just as much.

there's little enough difference between corporate leaders today and monarchies of the past. They have too much power and too much of the wealth. The Republicans claim to be for small businesses, and yet most people considered "small businesses" make no more than the median income, if they are lucky to make that, meanwhile the corporate chains are everywhere. The same Wal-Mart and other shopping centers, and the same fast food chains and the same specialty chains all exist from one town to the next, right around the entire nation. As long as people continue to fall into this trap, it will only get worse.

It's not that centralization of knowledge and logistics is a bad thing, it's not conceptually. The problem is the people over the corporations bilk both their employees and their customers through unfair prices and unfair wages, while they make orders of magnitude more income than most.


How is that moral?

You can call me a communist if you like.

I'm not (fundamentally,) but I'd rather be a moral communist than an immoral capitalist.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Barrow Alaska webcam.
I would not want to live there.


I have lived further north then that and its really not too bad ..
765. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


Never said that. You read something into my statement that wasn't there.


I think if people are worth more they should make more, but nobody is worth what corporate CEO's make, and I mean absolutely nobody, and least of all entertainers and athletes.

What is a fair standard of "Wealthy"?

Should the people at the top of the curve make 1000 times the median income, even when they could settle for 100 times and give most of their employees a couple thousand dollars to maybe 10,000 per year raise? Do you really believe that's fair?

You know how much money that is over an individual employee's career? That's far more than most people end up saving for retirement currently in their life time, even on the low-ball end, and if you got to the middle or high end it could pay for a house. In fact, it's a big part of the reason they don't have money to save for retirement currently, because they're being screwed by their employer(s).

Are executives and entertainers really worth a million, ten million or more per year? Or is that just a lie everyone has been brainwashed to believe?


Do you really believe Mark Zuckerberg "should" make as much money as he does? For what? Starting a failed advertising agency which masquerades as a gossip engine?

Do you really believe oil executives or automotive executives should make as much money as they do? Or even executives in financial corporations? After all, they too contributed enormously to the recession. How does a financial firm which was only paying one fourth of one percent on an IRA (but presumably should have been making ten times that in the stock market,) how did they go broke, and have nothing to show for it? Same for 401k investments. All those people's investments evaporated to nothing, without public warning, with no assets, not on paper or in material assets, to show for it?! I still have a strong suspicion much of the money was actually bilked away and hidden in foreign accounts or assets somewhere. Do you REALLY think they, or anyone, deserves the salary and benefits they receive?


It's absolutely ridiculous.

So at what point would you admit all of these people are severely over paid to everyone else's detriment?!




i think if i start a business take the risk and work hard i should be able to make all i can
766. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


Not really.

I'm not a communist.

It's easy enough for one to spit out the word "communist" invoking some scare of cold war era Russian, or China's oppression of Christians (yet allegedly Christian Republicans insist on selling everyone out to them).

Yet that's not me, and not by quite a long margin.

It's easy to poison the well by immediately associating ideas of social justice with "OMG, communism! Run for the hills." As though "Capitalism" has some sort of monopoly on morality within government or fiscal policies. One need only look at the history of the U.S. to realize that our non-communist ancestors committed not one, but two of the greatest human atrocities in recent world history: via the "Trail of Tears" and the butchering of Native Americans, and by being one of the last nations to abolish slavery. It seems our democracy committed worse crimes than nearly anyone since about 2000 years prior.


Yet, when a communist idea ends up making the most sense, hey, let's be a communist!

China's birth limitation is a very wise and moral thing, as it turns out, because it protects the children from the foolishness of their parents, who would otherwise have more children than they can reasonably support. If such a policy were implemented in other, such as many African nations, then within a generation much of their poverty and violence would be halted. Well, most of the "Smart" couples in the U.S. are already self-regulating to just one or two children, because they recognize the financial wisdom in this (or else they may just be selfish in some cases and want to save for their own desires, so they do the right thing for the wrong reasons in some cases,) but either way, that's better than doing the wrong thing for the right reasons, or doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons.

Gasp, *shock* the horror! People shouldn't have more children than is reasonable.

I say this a a middle child among three, but I had great aunts and uncles who were part of a "liter" of 12 to 16 kids, and they were all poor as dirt because of it. I consider it child abuse. I even consider the "nineteen kids and counting" people on television as child abuse, in spite of the fact they make more money. Their relationships with their children are impersonal. They are treated as numbers, almost like pets or livestock, but I suppose not quite.

Anyway, ten kids having ten kids is immoral, and perhaps we've reached the point in the world where three kids having three kids is immoral, because the world can't contain their needs.


I try to be a realist, although much of a futurist as well.

I just want realistic long term planning between people and government to solve problems permanently for the good of everyone, not just the short term profits of a few selfish individuals, and I recognize that what exists in the U.S. currently is by no means fair nor realistic.

You may say something snide, such as "life's not fair," well, it could certainly be a lot more fair than it is now anyway, it's within the power of this generation to make it so, perhaps more than any previous.


Our very declaration of independence declares that all men are created equal.

Well, perhaps that's not true, but the point is we ought to strive to have equal rights, and modern capitalism does not actually provide that at all.

What we have today is actually much more like Orwell's Animal Farm, where the pigs changed it to say, "All animals are created equal, but some or more equal than others!"

It was claimed that the book was a satire of communism, but I rather think he may well have been mocking the U.S. just as much.

there's little enough difference between corporate leaders today and monarchies of the past. They have too much power and too much of the wealth. The Republicans claim to be for small businesses, and yet most people considered "small businesses" make no more than the median income, if they are lucky to make that, meanwhile the corporate chains are everywhere. The same Wal-Mart and other shopping centers, and the same fast food chains and the same specialty chains all exist from one town to the next, right around the entire nation. As long as people continue to fall into this trap, it will only get worse.

It's not that centralization of knowledge and logistics is a bad thing, it's not conceptually. The problem is the people over the corporations bilk both their employees and their customers through unfair prices and unfair wages, while they make orders of magnitude more income than most.


How is that moral?

You can call me a communist if you like.

I'm not (fundamentally,) but I'd rather be a moral communist than an immoral capitalist.



most chain stores started as just one store and expanded thru hard work and taking risk some have done great but many have failed.....
Quoting EstherD:


Temps in the 90's and dewpoints in the 70's most of the year? I would not want to live there. :)

Different strokes for different folks, as we used to say.



Touche
769. txjac
Quoting yoboi:




i think if i start a business take the risk and work hard i should be able to make all i can


I agree with that. Here's what makes me angry. Two people in my family - one working as a pipe fitter/plumber working in a union shop (community college two year degree) , the other a highly trained cardiac critical care nurse. Union working = 70.00 an hour in Ohio, cardiac critical care nurse = 56.00 and hour.

Now why does a person that works with welding rods think that he should out earn a highly ediucated nurse?

This is a big part of what needs to change to make USA once again successful
What happened to 768? Man that was quick!
772. yoboi
Quoting txjac:


I agree with that. Here's what makes me angry. Two people in my family - one working as a pipe fitter/plumber working in a union shop (community college two year degree) , the other a highly trained cardiac critical care nurse. Union working = 70.00 an hour in Ohio, cardiac critical care nurse = 56.00 and hour.

Now why does a person that works with welding rods think that he should out earn a highly ediucated nurse?

This is a big part of what needs to change to make USA once again successful



wait until the new health care laws kicks in that nurse will be making half that.....
Quoting MidMOwx:
Greetings from central Missouri. Long time lurker, first time poster.

The weather has been docile in the area for some time. I'm excited at the prospects of snow flurries here tomorrow before temperatures rebound into the 50's later in the week.
hello and thanks for Delurking
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What happened to 768? Man that was quick!

All of his posts are gone. He was either hit with the ban hammer or just they all got removed.
775. txjac
Quoting wxchaser97:

All of his posts are gone. He was either hit with the ban hammer or just they all got removed.


Who was 768?

Forget it ...I figured it out
Just walked the dogs, feels alot colder than 56.......
Quoting txjac:


Who was 768?

RTSplayer
778. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
Just walked the dogs, feels alot colder than 56.......


I walked the dog and it feels a lot warmer than 76 here. Need some more cool weather
Quoting whitewabit:


That's a lot of rain Taz ..
..yes that sure IS alot of rain, if this pans out..california will have the mud slides once again
Quoting txjac:


I walked the dog and it feels a lot warmer than 76 here. Need some more cool weather
..LOL, i wish it was 76 here now..this was a strong cold front this weekend..sure knocked our temps down alot..but its supposed to warm up this week
stay alert over there txjac..bad weather coming to you....
There is one small point of comfort in this discussion of AGW -- climate does indeed follow cycles, natural or induced/forced. AGW, with the predicted temperature increases over several centuries (a tiny bit of time geologically), will undoubtedly trigger another Carboniferous Age, in which the fossil fuels used up by humans will be replaced over a couple of hundred million years. But I doubt if humans will survive to repeat the current cycle! Too bad -- the weather then should be ... interesting.
Quoting yoboi:




i think if i start a business take the risk and work hard i should be able to make all i can


What risk?

If a large company is about to go under due to poor business practices, say predatory lending... Nowadays, the taxpayers bail them out.

This is what I have a problem with... You can't have it both ways. Either you're taking the risk, and with that risk you are allowed to actually fail. Or, you're not really taking a risk.
785. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
stay alert over there txjac..bad weather coming to you....


Wow, thanks ...hadnt even looked as I thought it was just going to be more of the same ...hope some of the rain gets to bohonk man!
Quoting txjac:


Wow, thanks ...hadnt even looked as I thought it was just going to be more of the same ...hope some of the rain gets to bohonk man!
..yes looks like he will be getting some
I wish I was getting this much snow, that is later in winter for me. Lake effect snow warnings are in affect for this area. Yes, heavy lake-effect snow is severe weather.

Mesoscale discussion 2122
feels like christmas lol..............
Quoting LargoFl:


Thanks for the welcome. That's quite a large spread in overnight temperatures in the graphic you posted @781. The Gulf of Mexico waters must be flexing their muscle for the coastal areas keeping them substantially warmer.

Is there much in the way of citrus in the areas dropping to the 20's?
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A QUICK BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW...THEN
END DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS
THAN 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...IF THIS FEATURE BECOMES STRONGER...WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE POSTED FOR A FEW...MOST FAVORED COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

KTB
The Arklatex, and parts of Mississippi, region could get some severe weather tomorrow. This severe weather would be in the from of large hail and damaging winds.

Day 2 convective outlook
Quoting MidMOwx:


Thanks for the welcome. That's quite a large spread in overnight temperatures in the graphic you posted @781. The Gulf of Mexico waters must be flexing their muscle for the coastal areas keeping them substantially warmer.

Is there much in the way of citrus in the areas dropping to the 20's?
Quoting MidMOwx:


Thanks for the welcome. That's quite a large spread in overnight temperatures in the graphic you posted @781. The Gulf of Mexico waters must be flexing their muscle for the coastal areas keeping them substantially warmer.

Is there much in the way of citrus in the areas dropping to the 20's?
..hi yes there is some but most of the orchards have moved south of..hmmm say tampa- orlando line in central florida southward..so far in my area..no frost or freeze this time..but north of me in leavy county they had the freeze
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
107 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...AND HERNANDO
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER COUNTY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
26W is continuing to consolidate.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I agree. Since when has the governmnet ever run anything efficiently?
The NWS is a perfect example of a government agency that provides the citizens with information more efficiently than any combination of private companies could do, and they don't use any guns:P
.
Quoting LargoFl:
..hi yes there is some but most of the orchards have moved south of..hmmm say tampa- orlando line in central florida southward..so far in my area..no frost or freeze this time..but north of me in leavy county they had the freeze


Thanks Largo.

My WFO (Pleasant Hill, MO NWS) forecast for tomorrow.

Quoting RTSplayer:


Not really.

I'm not a communist.

It's easy enough for one to spit out the word "communist" invoking some scare of cold war era Russian, or China's oppression of Christians (yet allegedly Christian Republicans insist on selling everyone out to them).

Yet that's not me, and not by quite a long margin.

It's easy to poison the well by immediately associating ideas of social justice with "OMG, communism! Run for the hills." As though "Capitalism" has some sort of monopoly on morality within government or fiscal policies. One need only look at the history of the U.S. to realize that our non-communist ancestors committed not one, but two of the greatest human atrocities in recent world history: via the "Trail of Tears" and the butchering of Native Americans, and by being one of the last nations to abolish slavery. It seems our democracy committed worse crimes than nearly anyone since about 2000 years prior.


Yet, when a communist idea ends up making the most sense, hey, let's be a communist!

China's birth limitation is a very wise and moral thing, as it turns out, because it protects the children from the foolishness of their parents, who would otherwise have more children than they can reasonably support. If such a policy were implemented in other, such as many African nations, then within a generation much of their poverty and violence would be halted. Well, most of the "Smart" couples in the U.S. are already self-regulating to just one or two children, because they recognize the financial wisdom in this (or else they may just be selfish in some cases and want to save for their own desires, so they do the right thing for the wrong reasons in some cases,) but either way, that's better than doing the wrong thing for the right reasons, or doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons.

Gasp, *shock* the horror! People shouldn't have more children than is reasonable.

I say this a a middle child among three, but I had great aunts and uncles who were part of a "liter" of 12 to 16 kids, and they were all poor as dirt because of it. I consider it child abuse. I even consider the "nineteen kids and counting" people on television as child abuse, in spite of the fact they make more money. Their relationships with their children are impersonal. They are treated as numbers, almost like pets or livestock, but I suppose not quite.

Anyway, ten kids having ten kids is immoral, and perhaps we've reached the point in the world where three kids having three kids is immoral, because the world can't contain their needs.


I try to be a realist, although much of a futurist as well.

I just want realistic long term planning between people and government to solve problems permanently for the good of everyone, not just the short term profits of a few selfish individuals, and I recognize that what exists in the U.S. currently is by no means fair nor realistic.

You may say something snide, such as "life's not fair," well, it could certainly be a lot more fair than it is now anyway, it's within the power of this generation to make it so, perhaps more than any previous.


Our very declaration of independence declares that all men are created equal.

Well, perhaps that's not true, but the point is we ought to strive to have equal rights, and modern capitalism does not actually provide that at all.

What we have today is actually much more like Orwell's Animal Farm, where the pigs changed it to say, "All animals are created equal, but some or more equal than others!"

It was claimed that the book was a satire of communism, but I rather think he may well have been mocking the U.S. just as much.

there's little enough difference between corporate leaders today and monarchies of the past. They have too much power and too much of the wealth. The Republicans claim to be for small businesses, and yet most people considered "small businesses" make no more than the median income, if they are lucky to make that, meanwhile the corporate chains are everywhere. The same Wal-Mart and other shopping centers, and the same fast food chains and the same specialty chains all exist from one town to the next, right around the entire nation. As long as people continue to fall into this trap, it will only get worse.

It's not that centralization of knowledge and logistics is a bad thing, it's not conceptually. The problem is the people over the corporations bilk both their employees and their customers through unfair prices and unfair wages, while they make orders of magnitude more income than most.


How is that moral?

You can call me a communist if you like.

I'm not (fundamentally,) but I'd rather be a moral communist than an immoral capitalist.
Many of your points here are valid. I agree with you about child limitation, but it is a human rights issue and a dangerous topic to discuss. My family never owned any slaves and came to this country via Nova Scotia as French Acadians. Slavery was wrong no doubt, but many people came here as indentured servants and in many cases were treated far worse. I do not believe
that government should regulate every part of my life. I vote for a president once every four years, but vote every day with my dollars. If you do not approve of what Zuckerberg makes, don't support his business. The same goes for atheletes and movie stars.
Don't buy their products. We can control our own destinys without losing our freedom. Being part of a herd did not work out well for the buffolo.
Quoting MidMOwx:


Thanks Largo.

My WFO (Pleasant Hill, MO NWS) forecast for tomorrow.

wow looks like winter is here already by you
Guam NWS local Statement regarding Tropical Depression 26W.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...TECHNICAL CORRECTION
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST MON NOV 26 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS FORMED SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN NUKUORO ATOLL IN POHNPEI STATE...AND LUKUNOR AND ITS
SURROUNDING ATOLLS IN CHUUK STATE. THE ISLAND OF NGATIK IS IN THIS
AREA OF CONCERN.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO ATOLL IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR ATOLL IN CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.8 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF NUKUORO
160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND
425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. TD 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NUKUORO AND LUKUNOR AND THE SOUTHERN
MORTLOCK ISLANDS...WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND SURF WILL BE BECOME DANGEROUSLY HIGH ALONG
WINDWARD COASTS. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE VERY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DEADLY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT OR SECURED. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL OUTSIDE CHUUK LAGOON SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 30 TO 50
MPH WITHIN 100 MILES OF TD 26W DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST. WAVES GENERATED BY TD 26W MAY
EVENTUALLY CAUSE SURF TO BUILD ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES FOR
ALL THE ISLANDS OF POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TD 26W WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET AND MAY CAUSE
SURF TO BUILD ALONG SOUTHERN SHORES FOR ALL THE ISLANDS OF POHNPEI
AND CHUUK STATES. THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY HIGH
TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON AND INUNDATION PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE COMING DAYS AS 26W INTENSIFIES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER LARGE PARTS OF SOUTHERN POHNPEI
AND CHUUK STATES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 3 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD

I just finished up a blog on 26W if you're interested.

Link
for california.........................PERIODS OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH INCREASED WEATHER IMPACTS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...

MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL
WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY SEVERAL MORE STORM SYSTEMS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC...MEANING CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY WITH EACH SYSTEM. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR ANY ONE AREA COULD SIGNIFICANTLY VARY AND
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM EACH
SYSTEM SETS UP IN THE STATE. CURRENTLY ONE MODEL KEEPS THE FOCUS
OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY REGION WHILE OTHERS SPREAD SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN FURTHER SOUTH AND EVEN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. EACH OF THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 6000 FEET WITH THE WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM...AND WILL RISE TO 7000 FEET OR HIGHER WITH THE SUBSEQUENT
WARMER STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THESE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION...DETAILS ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF EACH STORM THAT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED AND WATER GOES DIRECTLY
INTO RUNOFF RATHER THAN SEEPING INTO SOILS AND WATER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE ON THE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
*URBAN AND RURAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

*SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATER LEVELS FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL STEAM FLOODING.

*MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE
BRANCHES AND TREES. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

*MUD AND ROCK SLIDES LIKELY AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS FOR
RECENT BURN SCARS.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENTS OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT SERIES OF STORMS.


$$

BARUFFALDI
well thats it for me folks..have a great night.............A cold morning gave way to a pleasant, somewhat cool, Sunday afternoon.

Sunday was one of the coldest mornings of the season so far. Although most of the Tampa Bay area was spared heavy-jacket weather, temperatures dropped below freezing in parts of Hernando and Citrus counties.

Brooksville reported 30 degrees, Crystal River 31, Locanto 32, Weeki Wachee 34, Inverness 37 and Polk City 38.

"There were a few unofficial observations in southwestern Citrus county around the Sugarmill Woods area of about 28 degrees," Linker said.

Polk County and eastern Hillsborough County dropped into upper 30s (Brandon reported 39 degrees), but closer to the Gulf of Mexico, Pinellas and Manatee counties were several degrees warmer.

The National Weather Service in Ruskin issued a freeze warning for Citrus and Hernando counties, from late Sunday night through early Monday morning.

A warming trend will begin Monday. A high of 76 degrees is projected for Monday, and the rest of the week should be even warmer
Quoting LargoFl:
feels like christmas lol..............


Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
4:30 AM RET November 26 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Boldwin (1003 hPa) located at 15.3S 73.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.7S 71.2E - Depression Se Comblant
48 HRS: 16.9S 68.2E - Depression Se Comblant

Additional Information
========================
According to recent microwave imagery, low level circulation center, always quite difficult to locate, seems to be located now west northwest out of the convection.

In the south of the upper level ridge axis, northwesterly vertical wind shear keeps on increasing near the centre of Boldwin. The convective activity mainly exists in the southeastern quadrant. Wind shear is expected to keeps on increasing as the system will undergo the influence of an approaching upper level trough.

System is therefore expected to keeps on weakening rapidly within the next 24 hours as it tracks west southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures. Beyond system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south, and turn southwards and merge with this trough on Wednesday.

Last warning about this system unless re-intensification
Quoting LargoFl:
for california.........................PERIODS OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH INCREASED WEATHER IMPACTS POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...

MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL
WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY SEVERAL MORE STORM SYSTEMS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC...MEANING CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY WITH EACH SYSTEM. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR ANY ONE AREA COULD SIGNIFICANTLY VARY AND
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM EACH
SYSTEM SETS UP IN THE STATE. CURRENTLY ONE MODEL KEEPS THE FOCUS
OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY REGION WHILE OTHERS SPREAD SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN FURTHER SOUTH AND EVEN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. EACH OF THESE STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 6000 FEET WITH THE WEDNESDAY
SYSTEM...AND WILL RISE TO 7000 FEET OR HIGHER WITH THE SUBSEQUENT
WARMER STORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THESE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION...DETAILS ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF EACH STORM THAT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WILL
BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT WHICH COULD INCREASE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED AND WATER GOES DIRECTLY
INTO RUNOFF RATHER THAN SEEPING INTO SOILS AND WATER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE ON THE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
*URBAN AND RURAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

*SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATER LEVELS FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL STEAM FLOODING.

*MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE
BRANCHES AND TREES. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

*MUD AND ROCK SLIDES LIKELY AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS FOR
RECENT BURN SCARS.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENTS OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
HIGH IMPACT SERIES OF STORMS.


$$

BARFBALDI


26W:

wow so many "Blackout" moment with the server.
Quoting Civicane49:
26W:



Cloud tops have warmed a bit. Maybe some dry air penetrated the circulation?
Honestly, I'm surprised 26W was declared as soon as it was. I mean, T-numbers from SAB are at T1.5, and convection is on the decrease.

I would've waited until later on tonight or in the morning.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Cloud tops have warmed a bit. Maybe some dry air penetrated the circulation?


Probably not dry air as it is within very moist air. It is probably because that the cyclone is continuing to consolidate or in diurnal minimum.

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 NOV 2012 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 3:52:43 N Lon : 156:36:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1006.0mb/ 28.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 2.1 2.6

Center Temp : -17.8C Cloud Region Temp : -27.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 4:40:12 N Lon: 155:48:00 E
Sun has only been up 4-5 hrs, D-min should be hard on it. Being that close to the equator has got to be a hindering factor for 26W too. Last thing I see that has passed it looks sloppy. OSCAT

Trying to do some cyber-Monday shopping. Can not find a simple Miami Dolphins letter opener. The Google machine stinks tonight.
Quoting Skyepony:
Sun has only been up 4-5 hrs, D-min should be hard on it. Being that close to the equator has got to be a hindering factor for 26W too. Last thing I see that has passed it looks sloppy. OSCAT



And also looks very broad.
Quoting DocNDswamp:


However, I kinda believe the human sacrifice thing wasn't the best of karma for their future!


Ummm... over a million last year in the US!
If anyone missed it yesterday, I finished my 'Storm History' section of Ernesto's TCR (I'm going to be writing for all storms in both basins, regardless of whether the NHC has completed some of them). Also gonna do a "best track" this year, which is something I've never done before. Wish me luck!







Tropical Cyclone Report
Hurricane Ernesto
(AL052012)
1-10 August

Ernesto moved uneventfully through the Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane as it approached the Yucatan Peninsula. Ernesto then made a second landfall over extreme southeast Mexico as a tropical storm. Ernesto's remnants contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Hector in the Eastern North Pacific.

a. Storm History

Ernesto's development began when a vigorous tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa on 23 July. While in situ observations are relatively scarce in this area of the Atlantic, ASCAT ambiguities suggest that the wave was of fairly high amplitude, and it contained a vigorous lower- to middle tropospheric cyclonic circulation envelope which appeared to be closed at times. Notwithstanding, there was little overall development for the next several days as the wave marched westward, possibly in response to a large dust-laden airmass associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that prevailed over much of the tropical Atlantic during this time. Possibly enhanced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the wave began showing signs of organization on 28 July, when a broad low pressure area is estimated to have developed along the wave axis. Microwave data (not shown) showed the inner structure beginning to look less skeletal around midday 30 July, which was concurrent with satellite images showing developing banding features.

Subsequently, the tropical wave began to increase in forward speed while gradually turning toward the west-northwest. Development continued, and it is estimated that the system became a tropical depression near 1800 UTC 1 August while centered approximately 700 miles east-southeast of Barbados. The %u201Cbest track%u201Dchart of the tropical cyclone%u2019s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. The depression failed to strengthen initially, and the cloud pattern as a whole was disorganized. Based on a flight from a reconnaissance aircraft and a slightly improved convective presentation in satellite images, the cyclone is assumed to have become a tropical storm around 0000 UTC that day. Ernesto appears to have strengthened a little as it moved through the eastern Caribbean on 4 August, but the low-level center remained displaced to the west of the convection due to westerly speed shear caused by the fast forward motion of the tropical storm as it was steered to the north of a strong subtropical ridge. The cyclone started to lose organization again late that same day, and there is some doubt as to the veracity of a closed circulation during that time.

Little change in strength was noted over the next couple of days as Ernesto continued westward. As the system approached the western Caribbean late on 6 August, however, it began to strengthen, possibly in response to a relative decrease in the forward speed in response to an upper-level trough that was moving into the southern United States. Based on satellite pictures and data from a reconnaissance aircraft, it is estimated that Ernesto became a hurricane just before 1800 UTC 7 August, centered about 250 miles east-northeast of Belize City. Ernesto continued to strengthen up until landfall, reaching its maximum estimated intensity of 75 kt near 0000 UTC 8 August while located about 60 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico. The hurricane made landfall along the southern coast of the Yucatan in a remote area just south of Chetumal just after 0200 UTC at peak intensity. At that time, satellite and aircraft data indicated that Ernesto was strengthening, and could have been going through a rapid deepening phase. The eye briefly became better defined after landfall near 0600 UTC, but the inner core quickly collapsed as the cyclone continued inland. Ernesto weakened below hurricane status near 1200 UTC that day while moving overland.

The cyclone entered the Bay of Campeche a little after 1800 UTC 8 August and began to gradually turn southwestward under a building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the weakening while over Yucatan, Ernesto's cloud pattern remained well-organized. Based on surface observations and satellite data, Ernesto made a second landfall along the coast of Mexico along the southeast portion of the coast near Coatzacoalcos near 1530 UTC 9 August as a 45-kt tropical storm. The tropical cyclone weakened after landfall, and is estimated to have dissipated over the Sierra Madre Oriental near 0600 UTC 10 August. The remnants -- apparently a mid-level circulation -- continued moving southwestward, where they entered the Eastern North Pacific and contributed to the formation of a large area of disturbed weather which ultimately spawned Tropical Storm Hector.

PDF file if anyone prefers it that way.
United Kingdom~ Ten homes have been evacuated after a large landslide caused by heavy rain in Old Sodbury, near Bristol. Several thousand tonnes of earth moved in the slip, which happened shortly after 08:00 GMT. People living in the houses have been taken to a local pub while engineers check the area. The police and fire service are also on the scene. The affected families included some with young children, according to the owner of the Dog pub. Another landslide on Friday, in Bath, led to the evacuation of several homes and a house lost part of its garden.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And also looks very broad.


& like a twin wants to form just on the other side of the equator.
For West Palm Beach...Nothing above 80...Beautimus!

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 4.2N 156.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.2N 156.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 4.7N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 5.2N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 5.6N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 6.0N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 6.7N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 7.7N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 8.9N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 4.3N 156.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z,
262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
9:00 AM JST November 26 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 3.6N 156.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 3.9N 155.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Depression will move west northwestward at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will be upgraded to a tropical storm within 24 hours

System will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature region

Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.0 after 24 hours
This low off Africa is about as good as it's gonna get. This is the brief moment where it's almost got a shallow asymmetric warm core, almost subtropical..all the models have it transition back more cold core on it's way to landfall. SST are a little cold.

Fresh OSCAT


Three in a row.. That low off Africa, one hitting the UK & the one up there by Norway..
Quoting KoritheMan:
If anyone missed it yesterday, I finished my 'Storm History' section of Ernesto's TCR (I'm going to be writing for all storms in both basins, regardless of whether the NHC has completed some of them). Also gonna do a "best track" this year, which is something I've never done before. Wish me luck!







Tropical Cyclone Report
Hurricane Ernesto
(AL052012)
1-10 August

Ernesto moved uneventfully through the Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane as it approached the Yucatan Peninsula. Ernesto then made a second landfall over extreme southeast Mexico as a tropical storm. Ernesto's remnants contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Hector in the Eastern North Pacific.

a. Storm History

Ernesto's development began when a vigorous tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa on 23 July. While in situ observations are relatively scarce in this area of the Atlantic, ASCAT ambiguities suggest that the wave was of fairly high amplitude, and it contained a vigorous lower- to middle tropospheric cyclonic circulation envelope which appeared to be closed at times. Notwithstanding, there was little overall development for the next several days as the wave marched westward, possibly in response to a large dust-laden airmass associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that prevailed over much of the tropical Atlantic during this time. Possibly enhanced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the wave began showing signs of organization on 28 July, when a broad low pressure area is estimated to have developed along the wave axis. Microwave data (not shown) showed the inner structure beginning to look less skeletal around midday 30 July, which was concurrent with satellite images showing developing banding features.

Subsequently, the tropical wave began to increase in forward speed while gradually turning toward the west-northwest. Development continued, and it is estimated that the system became a tropical depression near 1800 UTC 1 August while centered approximately 700 miles east-southeast of Barbados. The %u201Cbest track%u201Dchart of the tropical cyclone%u2019s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. The depression failed to strengthen initially, and the cloud pattern as a whole was disorganized. Based on a flight from a reconnaissance aircraft and a slightly improved convective presentation in satellite images, the cyclone is assumed to have become a tropical storm around 0000 UTC that day. Ernesto appears to have strengthened a little as it moved through the eastern Caribbean on 4 August, but the low-level center remained displaced to the west of the convection due to westerly speed shear caused by the fast forward motion of the tropical storm as it was steered to the north of a strong subtropical ridge. The cyclone started to lose organization again late that same day, and there is some doubt as to the veracity of a closed circulation during that time.

Little change in strength was noted over the next couple of days as Ernesto continued westward. As the system approached the western Caribbean late on 6 August, however, it began to strengthen, possibly in response to a relative decrease in the forward speed in response to an upper-level trough that was moving into the southern United States. Based on satellite pictures and data from a reconnaissance aircraft, it is estimated that Ernesto became a hurricane just before 1800 UTC 7 August, centered about 250 miles east-northeast of Belize City. Ernesto continued to strengthen up until landfall, reaching its maximum estimated intensity of 75 kt near 0000 UTC 8 August while located about 60 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico. The hurricane made landfall along the southern coast of the Yucatan in a remote area just south of Chetumal just after 0200 UTC at peak intensity. At that time, satellite and aircraft data indicated that Ernesto was strengthening, and could have been going through a rapid deepening phase. The eye briefly became better defined after landfall near 0600 UTC, but the inner core quickly collapsed as the cyclone continued inland. Ernesto weakened below hurricane status near 1200 UTC that day while moving overland.

The cyclone entered the Bay of Campeche a little after 1800 UTC 8 August and began to gradually turn southwestward under a building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the weakening while over Yucatan, Ernesto's cloud pattern remained well-organized. Based on surface observations and satellite data, Ernesto made a second landfall along the coast of Mexico along the southeast portion of the coast near Coatzacoalcos near 1530 UTC 9 August as a 45-kt tropical storm. The tropical cyclone weakened after landfall, and is estimated to have dissipated over the Sierra Madre Oriental near 0600 UTC 10 August. The remnants -- apparently a mid-level circulation -- continued moving southwestward, where they entered the Eastern North Pacific and contributed to the formation of a large area of disturbed weather which ultimately spawned Tropical Storm Hector.

PDF file if anyone prefers it that way.

You should post them on your blog so you and others can look back on them. Also so people can see them after toady.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should post them on your blog so you and others can look back on them. Also so people can see them after toady.


I suppose I could.

EDIT: And... done.
How are you doing Kori? Survive Black Friday?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How are you doing Kori? Survive Black Friday?


I'm here, aren't I? :)

How are you, friend?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm here, aren't I? :)

How are you, friend?


Not literally fool...I have an employee that works at Walmart also. She was disgusted how the customers acted. And the kicker was...there will be no price changes from Black Friday till the season ends.

And you are a friend.

Well guys, we're in the last week of Hurricane Season 2012. It looks like TS Tony was the last storm of the season. Barring any ups in either over the coming weeks, the season will have dealt $68 billion dollars in damage and 327 fatalities. Deadliest since 2008 and most destructive since 2005.

835. beell
A stockpile of winter reading material for the weather geek here. The material covered is not the latest and greatest, but plenty of detail.

The Mariners Weather Log

The Mariners Weather Log (MWL), a publication of the National Weather Service (NWS), contains articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact concerns, climatology studies, storms at sea, and weather forecasting. The MWL is dedicated to the NWS Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) Program, Port Meteorological Officers (PMOs), cooperating ships officers, and their vessels...

...The MWL is currently published three (3) times per year (April, August, & December)


A few of the items in the August 2012 Issue (may take a few seconds to load):

Storm Surges in New York Harbor During
Hurricane Irene
Japan Tsunami Debris
Product Changes for the 2012 Hurricane Season

Marine Weather Review
Mean Circulation Highlights and Climate Anomalies %u2013
January through April 2012
Tropical Atlantic and Tropical East Pacific Areas -
January through April 2012
North Atlantic Review: July through December 2011
North Pacific Review: July through December 2011

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well guys, we're in the last week of Hurricane Season 2012. It looks like TS Tony was the last storm of the season. Barring any ups in either over the coming weeks, the season will have dealt $68 billion dollars in damage and 327 fatalities. Deadliest since 2008 and most destructive since 2005.



I hate saying the 'season' was costly, because most of it is attributed to Isaac and Sandy whereas in 2004, 2005, and 2008 the wealth was spread around several storms.
Quoting wxgeek723:


I hate saying the 'season' was costly, because most of it is attributed to Isaac and Sandy whereas in 2004, 2005, and 2008 the wealth was spread around several storms.

Well that's you. =P

Costly is costly, no matter how many storms attributed to the overall damage total. One or twenty.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well guys, we're in the last week of Hurricane Season 2012. It looks like TS Tony was the last storm of the season. Barring any ups in either over the coming weeks, the season will have dealt $68 billion dollars in damage and 327 fatalities. Deadliest since 2008 and most destructive since 2005.


I remember like it was yesterday when the season started and when I first started posting on this blog. It has been a wild ride this year.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
12:00 PM JST November 26 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 4.0N 156.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.3N 155.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
Quoting AussieStorm:


Well the typhoon season is year-round...so tiring for many to be watchful for typhoons all year long...no rest there. Specially for the Philippines

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 260303
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 PM CHST MON NOV 26 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP AND FOR CHUUK (LAGOON) IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.4 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO
130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
190 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.


REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...4.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 156.4
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.
I didn't see this before on the CPHC

Issued: Nov 25, 2012 2:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ends on November 30. The final tropical weather outlook of the season will be issued at 8 pm on November 30. We will resume issuing outlooks starting on June 1 of 2013.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I didn't see this before on the CPHC

Issued: Nov 25, 2012 2:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ends on November 30. The final tropical weather outlook of the season will be issued at 8 pm on November 30. We will resume issuing outlooks starting on June 1 of 2013.


Every year, they always put this up about a week before hurricane season ends there.
look at the center right of this map...
The GFS has been constant with that Canary Is. low there and expected to move south


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
look at the center right of this map...
The GFS has been constant with that Canary Is. low there and expected to move south




See post #828.
Quoting Civicane49:


See post #828.


yep...thanks
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yep...thanks


No problem.
sooo quiet blog.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
sooo quiet blog.

I think I just heard some crickets chirping...

The 00z GFS had a big snowstorm for parts of the Great Lakes region and temps cold enough for snow and the 5400 line all the way down into N FL.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
sooo quiet blog.


Like it's smothered in a severe fog....
wonder why no NWS office has posted winter wether alerts ahead of the upcoming snowstorm for NYC...

is it too early?
Quoting beell:

Great stuff!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Barrow Alaska webcam.
I would not want to live there.


plus everything is so expensive and there is not much to do...


the sun is about to set over 26w...where is it rising? near the east Atlantic?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Like it's smothered in a severe fog....

Nah, no one is risking their life.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


the sun is about to set over 26w...where is it rising? near the east Atlantic?


im just gonna quote myself for that
Probably posted before, but worth a repeat.

World Bank: Turn Down the Heat

very thick fog still here
wondering if this happens here, paid trolls.

"Articles about the environment are hit harder by such tactics than any others. I love debate, and I often wade into the threads beneath my columns. But it's a depressing experience, as instead of contesting the issues I raise, many of those who disagree bombard me with infantile abuse, or just keep repeating a fiction, however often you discredit it. This ensures that an intelligent discussion is almost impossible - which appears to be the point."
Quoting plutorising:
wondering if this happens here, paid trolls.

"Articles about the environment are hit harder by such tactics than any others. I love debate, and I often wade into the threads beneath my columns. But it's a depressing experience, as instead of contesting the issues I raise, many of those who disagree bombard me with infantile abuse, or just keep repeating a fiction, however often you discredit it. This ensures that an intelligent discussion is almost impossible - which appears to be the point."


Interesting article. I post in the comments section of the Telegraph, a UK newspaper. Any time a climate change related article comes up, there is an invasion of climate change deniers who keep on repeating the same lies, the most often repeated being that the world hasn't warmed since 1998.

However, I don't think they are 'paid trolls', as the article implies, although some may be connected in some way to the fossil fuel industry. It's a subject that just seems to whip up strong emotion, often of the more irrational variety.

Also, there are Internet anarchists out there, with an agenda to discredit 'the establishment'. Usually, it's the political establisnment, but the scientific establishment might be seen as 'fair game' for them, too. I'm sure attacking climate change sientists and political figures, such as Al Gore, is part of their agenda.

Quoting plutorising:
wondering if this happens here, paid trolls.

"Articles about the environment are hit harder by such tactics than any others. I love debate, and I often wade into the threads beneath my columns. But it's a depressing experience, as instead of contesting the issues I raise, many of those who disagree bombard me with infantile abuse, or just keep repeating a fiction, however often you discredit it. This ensures that an intelligent discussion is almost impossible - which appears to be the point."
Almost certainly. Dr. Rood's forum seems to have a higher percentage of them, though they do appear here, as well. Each and every time Dr. Masters or Dr. Rood posts an entry dealing with climate change, you can be sure there'll be one or more comments fitting the description given above. These range from oft-repeated and completely false one-liners ("It hasn't warmed in 16 years") to Gish Gallops crammed full of utter nonsense, from misspelled and illogical ad hominem rants to just general trollish behavior thinly disguised as honest debate. And, yes, they unfortunately serve their purpose well by derailing attempts at serious discussion.

FWIW, however, I don't think all those who engage in such games are necessarily paid. I believe many--mostly members of a political party that has fear of change as a plank--are simply following high-level directives calling on their compliant and obediently sheep-like supporters to take to internet forums en masse to launch campaigns against honest scientific fact.

(EDIT: I see I've inadvertently repeated much of what yonzabam already wrote. C'est la vie...)
Good morning. Here is the latest warning from JTWC.

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 4.5N 156.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.5N 156.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 5.0N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 5.4N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 5.8N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 6.2N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 7.0N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 8.0N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 9.3N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 4.6N 155.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. //
NNNN



Good Morning Folks!!...7-day for the Tampa Bay area........
Good morning/evening all. Back to school again today and the work I brought home to do over vacation I never did. Felt good to just enjoy family. From a chilly 32 degrees when I got up yesterday to almost 60 degrees and raining this morning, needless to say my sinuses are having a blast! But rain means no recess for the kids... : (
871. yoboi
Quoting yonzabam:


Interesting article. I post in the comments section of the Telegraph, a UK newspaper. Any time a climate change related article comes up, there is an invasion of climate change deniers who keep on repeating the same lies, the most often repeated being that the world hasn't warmed since 1998.

However, I don't think they are 'paid trolls', as the article implies, although some may be connected in some way to the fossil fuel industry. It's a subject that just seems to whip up strong emotion, often of the more irrational variety.

Also, there are Internet anarchists out there, with an agenda to discredit 'the establishment'. Usually, it's the political establisnment, but the scientific establishment might be seen as 'fair game' for them, too. I'm sure attacking climate change sientists and political figures, such as Al Gore, is part of their agenda.




if you are in a boat that is sinking and you have a bucket do you just keep saying the boat is sinking until it sinks or do you use the bucket to bail out the boat??? neap same question for you...
Everyone have a great Monday!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
wonder why no NWS office has posted winter wether alerts ahead of the upcoming snowstorm for NYC...

is it too early?

Waiting for TWC to name it. lol
I think there are a few paid bloggers here.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I think there are a few paid bloggers here.

I like your thinking.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

1.33 km "fire-nest" inside NAM 12-km 18z plopped over Louisiana, powerful super-cells Monday evening.
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/27282136271489 4336/photo/1
877. VR46L
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I think there are a few paid bloggers here.


I Believe you are right !! And fall into the "respected" bloggers category.....


Anyway

UK Still under water

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Precipitable water anomalies show NPac pattern well inc. typhoon & intense atmospheric river flowing into CA. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/272917960262311 937/photo/1
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Powerful winter storm (rain mostly) to slam into California early Wednesday. Simulated radar from NAM-4km: http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/272911021562269 696/photo/1
Quoting Neapolitan:
Almost certainly. Dr. Rood's forum seems to have a higher percentage of them, though they do appear here, as well. Each and every time Dr. Masters or Dr. Rood posts an entry dealing with climate change, you can be sure there'll be one or more comments fitting the description given above. These range from oft-repeated and completely false one-liners ("It hasn't warmed in 16 years") to Gish Gallops crammed full of utter nonsense, from misspelled and illogical ad hominem rants to just general trollish behavior thinly disguised as honest debate. And, yes, they unfortunately serve their purpose well by derailing attempts at serious discussion.

FWIW, however, I don't think all those who engage in such games are necessarily paid. I believe many--mostly members of a political party that has fear of change as a plank--are simply following high-level directives calling on their sheep-like supporters to take to internet forums en masse to launch campaigns against honest scientific fact.

(EDIT: I see I've inadvertently repeated much of what yonzabam already wrote. C'est la vie...)

I love how each side of the AGW argument thinks the other side are a bunch of paid shills. I think that is my favorite part.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Almost certainly. Dr. Rood's forum seems to have a higher percentage of them, though they do appear here, as well. Each and every time Dr. Masters or Dr. Rood posts an entry dealing with climate change, you can be sure there'll be one or more comments fitting the description given above. These range from oft-repeated and completely false one-liners ("It hasn't warmed in 16 years") to Gish Gallops crammed full of utter nonsense, from misspelled and illogical ad hominem rants to just general trollish behavior thinly disguised as honest debate. And, yes, they unfortunately serve their purpose well by derailing attempts at serious discussion.

FWIW, however, I don't think all those who engage in such games are necessarily paid. I believe many--mostly members of a political party that has fear of change as a plank--are simply following high-level directives calling on their sheep-like supporters to take to internet forums en masse to launch campaigns against honest scientific fact.

(EDIT: I see I've inadvertently repeated much of what yonzabam already wrote. C'est la vie...)

That's almost as silly as saying Xandra and Xyrus2000 are your other alternate handles to drive the AGW stuff down other's throats, preying on the young and vulnerable like TropicalAnalyst13 and MAweatherboy. Silly stuff. Today should be conspiracy Monday. LOL
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
wonder why no NWS office has posted winter wether alerts ahead of the upcoming snowstorm for NYC...

is it too early?


This system is well below advisory criteria in most areas. You mentioned the Upton (NYC) NWS... generally the maximum forecast snowfall is in the 1 to 2 inch range.. possibly mixing with rain in areas. Even across the Philadelphia NWS area, total snow fall is generally expected to remain under two inches.

In most areas, advisory criteria would be at least three inches for a storm like this. If anyone was going to post advisories, it would most likely be across south central Pennsylvania, and back into the mountains, but even that might be a stretch.


Hi guys, I just wanted to see if someone could tell me if I am reading this right...i am a little confused.

I live in eastern NC so that is where i am asking for but any other clarification/teaching would be appreciated too.

It looks to me like the freezing line or the transition from rain/snow area, according to the GFS on 12/7, is right up through central NC. It also looks like a possible storm right on the coast. Is this correct?

If that is a correct assumption then I guess my question then is on a few sites that do a little longer range forecast like 2 weeks they are showing those areas along that line in NC and VA as being in the mid 60's and cloudy. I know it is a long way out and the gfs isnt the only thing that is used..but just trying to learn how they come up with those forecast values if I am indeed reading this map correctly.

Thanks :)
Source for image: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs8 50mbTSLPp12264.gif
Quoting air360:


Hi guys, I just wanted to see if someone could tell me if I am reading this right...i am a little confused.

I live in eastern NC so that is where i am asking for but any other clarification/teaching would be appreciated too.

It looks to me like the freezing line or the transition from rain/snow area, according to the GFS on 12/7, is right up through central NC. It also looks like a possible storm right on the coast. Is this correct?

If that is a correct assumption then I guess my question then is on a few sites that do a little longer range forecast like 2 weeks they are showing those areas along that line in NC and VA as being in the mid 60's and cloudy. I know it is a long way out and the gfs isnt the only thing that is used..but just trying to learn how they come up with those forecast values if I am indeed reading this map correctly.

Thanks :)
Source for image: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs8 50mbTSLPp12264.gif


That's because it's still warm at the surface. 850mb is still a few thousand feet up, so even if it seems like the temperature is below freezing, it really isn't. It's why I won't get much, if any snow tomorrow here in DC.
An LNG tanker with 150,000 cu. mt. of cargo has left Norway heading for Japan.
The ship will travel North into the Arctic, and will be the FIRST SUCH VOYAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTH EAST PASSAGE IN DECEMBER.

The route will save 20 days of shipping time.
The shipping company says that this is only possible due to the thin ice this December, and is a result of Climate Change.

But, what do they know.....

(from BBC News)
Just below 70 here for a low when does Fall begin? Several warm records the past 2 months here, either morning lows or afternoon highs. Have a great day from Very warm south central Texas.
To build on a news link provided by Dr. Masters in the current blog entry, here are some more happy thoughts from the drought (which, I should be note before I upset anyone, is merely a random coincidence and is in no way, shape, or form related in the least to climate change or global warming).

Low Mississippi water levels may halt barges

ST. LOUIS -- The gentle whir of passing barges is as much a part of life in St. Louis as the Gateway Arch and the Cardinals: a constant, almost soothing backdrop to a community intricately intertwined with the Mississippi River.

But next month, barges packing such necessities as coal, farm products and petroleum could instead be parked along the river's banks. The stubborn drought that has gripped the Midwest for much of the year has left the Mighty Mississippi critically low -- and it will become even lower if the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers presses ahead with plans to reduce the flow from a Missouri River dam.

Mississippi River interests fear the reduced flow will force a halt to barge traffic at the river's midpoint. They warn the economic fallout will be enormous, potentially forcing job cuts, raising fuel costs and pinching the nation's food supply.

"This could be a major, major impact at crisis level," said Debra Colbert, senior vice president of the Waterways Council, a public policy organization representing ports and shipping companies. "It is an economic crisis that is going to ripple across the nation at a time when we're trying to focus on recovery."


Source
Quoting VR46L:


I Believe you are right !! And fall into the "respected" bloggers category.....


Anyway

UK Still under water




BBC news video of the current flooding:

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

I like your thinking.


Atleast a couple. 60 degrees here in NOLA ahead of the rain
Aaack! This morning's frost snuck up on me since I was away from the site over the holiday. Hope it went well for everyone.

Good rotation on TD 26!

The posting on here is moving at a tryptophanic pace. There are posts answering the previous post's questions!!!
892. VR46L
Quoting yonzabam:



BBC news video of the current flooding:

Link


I have family in both the London and Coventry area and they were saying even in those area the rain has hardly stopped all weekend .. whereas I only had a couple of showers just across the water

Quoting biff4ugo:
Aaack! This morning's frost snuck up on me since I was away from the site over the holiday. Hope it went well for everyone.

Good rotation on TD 26!

The posting on here is moving at a tryptophanic pace. There are posts answering the previous post's questions!!!


Im sure its a TS by now.
Quoting VR46L:


I Believe you are right !! And fall into the "respected" bloggers category.....


Anyway

UK Still under water



That thing looks like it may turn into a blizzard as it heads for contenential Eroupe.
Korithe,

Your post mentions tables and figures that arent there. and the PDF version doesn't have them either.

FYI
Quoting TomballTXPride:

That's almost as silly as saying Xandra and Xyrus2000 are your other alternative handles to drive the AGW stuff down other's throats, preying on the young and vulnerable like TropicalAnalyst13 and MaWxBoy. Silly stuff. Today should be conspiracy Monday. LOL
So,what side of the fence do we fall on? Don't answer that! Keep me guessing,lol!
Quoting plutorising:
wondering if this happens here, paid trolls.

"Articles about the environment are hit harder by such tactics than any others. I love debate, and I often wade into the threads beneath my columns. But it's a depressing experience, as instead of contesting the issues I raise, many of those who disagree bombard me with infantile abuse, or just keep repeating a fiction, however often you discredit it. This ensures that an intelligent discussion is almost impossible - which appears to be the point."



This is already fairly widely recognized as an ongoing dynamic in the cybersphere and non-cybersphere areas as well. A lot of it is PR-related. ...that is.... retain a PR firm of sufficient class, and cyber activities will be part of the package line up that you can purchase. That includes wide and frequent posting of information structured to favor, either directly or indirectly through pretext, positions that your company or interest wants to promote, and to discredit or interfere with any information or view or modeling about that information that may move public perception in a direction which your operation, company, government, etc, does not favor. Some of these sound intelligent and thoughtful... others just interfere with the process of discussion will lower end troll behavior.

This happens outside of the cybersphere as well, where the stakes merit: Actors are got up in high status drag ... hot young high status chicks and guys, obviously with money, are over heard having a private discussion in public places about the merits of owning various items or points of view, and the competition is ridiculed.

Bottom line: Where an issue is important to you, take the time to research it yourself, taking care to get as many contrasting opinions as possible. Even when you get to hard research, be doubtful.... are ANY studies done anymore that aren't funded by some party with an interest in the perception of the outcome for non-scientific reasons...?
Quoting biff4ugo:
Korithe,

Your post mentions tables and figures that arent there. and the PDF version doesn't have them either.

FYI

His name is Kori. Not Korithe. Hence his handle KoriTheMan.

LOL
Good Morning All,
Hope everyone is well this am,
Webcam from my area..



My WU weather this am..

1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida




Current Jet Stream..
Quoting MontanaZephyr:



This is already fairly widely recognized as an ongoing dynamic in the cybersphere and non-cybersphere areas as well. A lot of it is PR-related. ...that is.... retain a PR firm of sufficient class, and cyber activities will be part of the package line up that you can purchase. That includes wide and frequent posting of information structured to favor, either directly or indirectly through pretext, positions that your company or interest wants to promote, and to discredit or interfere with any information or view or modeling about that information that may move public perception in a direction which your operation, company, government, etc, does not favor. Some of these sound intelligent and thoughtful... others just interfere with the process of discussion will lower end troll behavior.

I believe I was even hearing advertisements for companies just like this on the radio numerous times during a recent trip. Specific mention of "improving" your image on review sites and in search engine results. I can only imagine that "improving" is a double-speak for hiding true, poor reviews with invented good reviews.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The NWS is a perfect example of a government agency that provides the citizens with information more efficiently than any combination of private companies could do, and they don't use any guns:P
.

The NWS still has its issues/faults, just as any large entity - government or otherwise - should be expected to have. As with anything in these environments, it takes many people leading and pushing for improvements to make things better, and sometimes progress is slow.
WPAC26 Looking good this am..





SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 004
WTPN31 PGTW 261500
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 4.7N 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 5.1N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 5.4N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 5.7N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 5.9N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 6.3N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 7.4N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 8.7N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 155.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.
AT 112612 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 268 NM SE OF CHUUK.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN



Dark Sand Cascades on Mars
Image Credit: HiRISE, MRO, LPL (U. Arizona), NASA

Explanation: They might look like trees on Mars, but they're not. Groups of dark brown streaks have been photographed by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter on melting pinkish sand dunes covered with light frost. The above image was taken in 2008 April near the North Pole of Mars. At that time, dark sand on the interior of Martian sand dunes became more and more visible as the spring Sun melted the lighter carbon dioxide ice. When occurring near the top of a dune, dark sand may cascade down the dune leaving dark surface streaks -- streaks that might appear at first to be trees standing in front of the lighter regions, but cast no shadows. Objects about 25 centimeters across are resolved on this image spanning about one kilometer. Close ups of some parts of this image show billowing plumes indicating that the sand slides were occurring even when the image was being taken.
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -0.43.

With the Kelvin waves dissipating earlier & farther west, looking like a cooler neutral for the winter.
This morning's ASCAT of the low off Africa. Models did alright calling this to be shallow warm for so short a time to not bother with an invest. Circulation has really started to come undone since last night too.

Quoting ScottLincoln:

I believe I was even hearing advertisements for companies just like this on the radio numerous times during a recent trip. Specific mention of "improving" your image on review sites and in search engine results. I can only imagine that "improving" is a double-speak for hiding true, poor reviews with invented good reviews.

This sounds like something in that ball park. From a company called Next Principles.

"Choosing the right Social Media Management System was a process shrouded in mystery and confusion."

[edited out marketing spiel]

"NextPrinciples' Insight-to-Action SMMS is powering some of the world's biggest brands to monitor conversations and engage with their customers across all channels, social and otherwise. "
Quoting ScottLincoln:

The NWS still has its issues/faults, just as any large entity - government or otherwise - should be expected to have. As with anything in these environments, it takes many people leading and pushing for improvements to make things better, and sometimes progress is slow.


Five'll getch ten that NOAA told DR. Masters to STFU over the Deep water Horizon oil spill. He was commenting profusely on the ongoing environmental dynamics early on... then one day, without explanation, he suddenly stopped. BP and other operations like it already have in place super effective PR campaign war plans. That includes co-opting the process of whatever governments or private operations that might get in the way. If you trouble to find and read some of the back stories that made the web but not the press, you will find that all sorts of people and groups were traumatized not only by the chemical realities of the spill and its treatment, but by the activities of BP and its operatives as they did what they needed to do to intimidate and silence any thing or one they didn't like.

see, for example, floridaoilspilllaw.com. Go back toward the beginning. Lots of the remarks there are linked with references. There are many sites like it.

Same thing going with Fukushima. Have a, look at all the stories at enenews.com.

Same thing going with nearly every large event of any kind, corporate or connected to some government should be expected.

Rather than get all in a tizzy and judgmental about it, it should probably be regarded as a form of social disease, and strategies for treatment sought.

JMO
Quoting ScottLincoln:

The NWS still has its issues/faults, just as any large entity - government or otherwise - should be expected to have. As with anything in these environments, it takes many people leading and pushing for improvements to make things better, and sometimes progress is slow.

Think positive, Scott. The government needs more of your tax dollars....
STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has secured a $27 million federal grant that will give more than 5,000 unemployed New Yorkers jobs cleaning up communities -- including those on Staten Island -- still recovering from Hurricane Sandy.

The jobs will pay approximately $15 an hour and will include short- and long-term projects. The work will include cleaning and repairing damaged public structures and property in each of the nine counties declared disaster areas.


Those interested in applying for a job, can call the Department of Labor at 1-888-4-NYSDOL (1-888-469-7365) or visit www.labor.ny.gov/sandyjobs.
WU servers under dense fog this morning..

Dense fog greets Bay Area commuters Monday morning
Link

just buy the weather eh?
Quoting Skyepony:

That sure is a weird landscape.

Quoting Skyepony:
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -0.43.

With the Kelvin waves dissipating earlier & farther west, looking like a cooler neutral for the winter.


Do you have the link to that ESPI site? I lost it.
Last day to comment..people with asthma, heart conditions & such use these..money is tight, no need to know when it's safe to let the young & old out. Really??


NWS is proposing to terminate all operational
and experimental ozone air quality predictions and developmental predictions of
fine particulate matter (PM2.5) produced using the Community Model for Air
Quality (CMAQ) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
This termination is proposed due to the current fiscal environment. NWS will
maintain operational air quality predictions of smoke, dust, and volcanic ash,
as well as dispersion model predictions for the emergency management community
responding to harmful releases.


 


Please provide comments on the proposed
termination, by November 26, 2012, to:



 

nwssp.comments@noaa.gov



 

NWS will evaluate all comments to determine
whether to proceed with this termination. It is expected that the operational
ozone output will be terminated on or about March 5, 2013, and the experimental
ozone output and developmental PM2.5 predictions will be terminated on or about
January 22, 2013.



 

Specifically, this will result in the
termination of all surface ozone and developmental PM2.5 predictions over the
CONUS, Alaska and Hawaii that are made from the 06 UTC and 12 UTC prediction cycles.



 

More here




Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have the link to that ESPI site? I lost it.



Here it is..
917. rdMac
The mapped exceptional drought areas coincide very closely with the map of the Ogallala aquifer. I'm guessing that there won't be a lot of aquifer recharge this year, but dependency on the aquifer for irrigation (and drawdown rate) will increase even more if rains aren't abundant next summer.
Quoting bappit:

That sure is a weird landscape.



looks sorta alien....
Quoting sheople:
Link

just buy the weather eh?


So.... it's a profit thing. The evil corporations win again. Have a nice day RTS. ROTFLMAO
Quoting Skyepony:
Last day to comment..people with asthma, heart conditions & such use these..money is tight, no need to know when it's safe to let the young & old out. Really??

NWS is proposing to terminate all operational and experimental ozone air quality predictions and developmental predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) produced using the Community Model for Air Quality (CMAQ) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This termination is proposed due to the current fiscal environment. NWS will maintain operational air quality predictions of smoke, dust, and volcanic ash, as well as dispersion model predictions for the emergency management community responding to harmful releases.

Please provide comments on the proposed termination, by November 26, 2012, to: nwssp.comments@noaa.gov

NWS will evaluate all comments to determine whether to proceed with this termination. It is expected that the operational ozone output will be terminated on or about March 5, 2013, and the experimental ozone output and developmental PM2.5 predictions will be terminated on or about January 22, 2013.

Specifically, this will result in the termination of all surface ozone and developmental PM2.5 predictions over the CONUS, Alaska and Hawaii that are made from the 06 UTC and 12 UTC prediction cycles.
That's just the way some want it.

Step 1: remove the monitors, claiming that's it's because of the "current fiscal environment".

Step 2: claim that since air pollution is no longer being measured, it clearly doesn't exist.

Step 3: claim that air pollution "clearly doesn't exist", then use that "fact" to force loosening of "unnecessary" regulations.

Perfect!!!
Surely air pollution is a thing of the past. We've got so many laws regulating it. We don't have to worry about what happened in London years ago.

"Pea soup, or a pea souper, also known as a black fog or killer fog, is a very thick and often yellowish, greenish, or blackish smog, caused by air pollution that contains soot particulates and the poisonous gas sulphur dioxide. These very thick smogs occur in cities and are derived from the smoke given off by the burning of soft coal for home heating and in industrial processes. Smog of this intensity is often lethal to vulnerable people such as the elderly, the very young and those with respiratory problems." (Wikipedia)
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's just the way some want it.

Step 1: remove the monitors, claiming that's it's because of the "current fiscal environment".

Step 2: claim that since air pollution is no longer being measured, it clearly doesn't exist.

Step 3: claim that air pollution "clearly doesn't exist", then use that "fact" to force loosening of "unnecessary" regulations.

Perfect!!!



Tried commenting...says it's not a valid address. Kinda looks like NWS fighting back isn't happening so much anymore..
920:

Priorities need to be accessed upon level or importance.

Some issues take precedent, others take the back seat.

I don't see the issue here.
Looks like we can go ahead and call this record low annual maximum confirmed.




At this point, I think it would take an astronomical event to make that curve go back up far enough to get back above the old record low annual maximum.
We don't have to worry about events like the Donora smog of 1948 that are in the past.

"The Donora Smog marked one of the incidents where Americans recognized that exposure to large amounts of pollution in a short period of time can result in injuries and fatalities. The event is often credited for helping to trigger the clean-air movement in the United States, whose crowning achievement was the Clean Air Act of 1970, which required the United States Environmental Protection Agency to develop and enforce regulations to protect the general public from exposure to hazardous airborne contaminants."

That was short term exposure, of course. We don't have to worry about long term exposure either, right?
Quoting eyeofbetsy:


So.... it's a profit thing. The evil corporations win again. Have a nice day RTS. ROTFLMAO

LOL
There was a similar event in London in 1952. That led to a UK clean air act being passed in 1956.

"The Great Smog of '52 or Big Smoke[1] was a severe air pollution event that affected London during December 1952. A period of cold weather, combined with an anticyclone and windless conditions, collected airborne pollutants mostly from the use of coal to form a thick layer of smog over the city. It lasted from Friday 5 to Tuesday 9 December 1952, and then dispersed quickly after a change of weather.

Although it caused major disruption due to the effect on visibility, and even penetrated indoor areas, it was not thought to be a significant event at the time, with London having experienced many smog events in the past, so called "pea soupers". However, medical reports in the following weeks estimated that 4,000 people had died prematurely and 100,000 more were made ill because of the smog's effects on the human respiratory tract. More recent research suggests that the number of fatalities was considerably greater at about 12,000.[2]

It is considered the worst air pollution event in the history of the United Kingdom,[3] and the most significant in terms of its effect on environmental research, government regulation, and public awareness of the relationship between air quality and health.[2] It led to several changes in practices and regulations, including the Clean Air Act 1956."
928. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:
Looks like we can go ahead and call this record low annual maximum confirmed.




At this point, I think it would take an astronomical event to make that curve go back up far enough to get back above the old record low annual maximum.




is there a graph prior to 1979???
Quoting RTSplayer:
Looks like we can go ahead and call this record low annual maximum confirmed.




At this point, I think it would take an astronomical event to make that curve go back up far enough to get back above the old record low annual maximum.

But we're only taking since 1979...that's 33 years of data. Surely it would take a lot less than what you think to reverse that trend.
930. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's just the way some want it.

Step 1: remove the monitors, claiming that's it's because of the "current fiscal environment".

Step 2: claim that since air pollution is no longer being measured, it clearly doesn't exist.

Step 3: claim that air pollution "clearly doesn't exist", then use that "fact" to force loosening of "unnecessary" regulations.

Perfect!!!


Maybe the NWS could raise money for this work by selling names of winter storms .......
Quoting VR46L:


Maybe the NWS could raise money for this work by selling names of winter storms .......


Good Idea..
Wonder if they would have to buy the names from the TWC..??? hmmmm..LOL.. :)
Quoting TomballTXPride:
920:

Priorities need to be accessed upon level or importance.

Some issues take precedent, others take the back seat.

I don't see the issue here.

Breathing is SO overrated.

For the record, I have asthma, and I can tell if it is a bad PM2.5 or ozone day in my area... I hit the inhaler more often, and feel much more out of breath if I'm outside.

The NWS is such a tiny portion of our government expenditure, but for some reason, certain sections of the political spectrum sees them as "expendable" or "wasteful", yet turn a blind eye to truly wasteful sections of the budget, like the defense dept and pork.
My guess is this will become a potent typhoon in the coming days.
Quoting jeffs713:

Breathing is SO overrated.

For the record, I have asthma, and I can tell if it is a bad PM2.5 or ozone day in my area... I hit the inhaler more often, and feel much more out of breath if I'm outside.

The NWS is such a tiny portion of our government expenditure, but for some reason, certain sections of the political spectrum sees them as "expendable" or "wasteful", yet turn a blind eye to truly wasteful sections of the budget, like the defense dept and pork.

We have to pick our battles, and pick them wisely. I respectfully disagree, neighbor.
935. yoboi
Quoting jeffs713:

Breathing is SO overrated.

For the record, I have asthma, and I can tell if it is a bad PM2.5 or ozone day in my area... I hit the inhaler more often, and feel much more out of breath if I'm outside.

The NWS is such a tiny portion of our government expenditure, but for some reason, certain sections of the political spectrum sees them as "expendable" or "wasteful", yet turn a blind eye to truly wasteful sections of the budget, like the defense dept and pork.


this is what 51% of the public voted for......
936. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Good Idea..
Wonder if they would have to buy the names from the TWC..??? hmmmm..LOL.. :)


My Bad . LOL.
But in this day and age when the developed world is broke, Government should maybe try and adopt more radical ways of getting the funding without further burden to the taxpayer .
You Guys got your man (Obama), now it's his time to make his move. We shouldn't even be talking about this if it was that important.

Priorities, people.
.
Quoting bappit:

Hmmm, reminds me of Bones in that Star Trek episode where his mind is taken over by the computer ... along with everyone else's except during Festival when they diffuse their pent up tensions.

I think Bones called everyone "friend", but the concept is the same.

Jeff lives in Tomball like me, hence the neighbor reference. Aren't you also from Texas?
BERKELEY — Long-term exposure to ground-level ozone, a major component of smog, is associated with an increased risk of death from respiratory ailments, according to a new nationwide study led by a researcher at the University of California, Berkeley.

The study, to be published in the March 12 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine, analyzed the risk of death for both ozone and fine particulate matter, two of the most prevalent components of air pollution. The study followed nearly 450,000 people for two decades and covered 96 metropolitan regions in the United States.

Map of ozone concentrations in U.S.A new study finds that long-term exposure to ozone is linked to a higher risk of death from respiratory causes. This map shows average ozone concentrations for the years 1977-2000 in the 96 metropolitan regions included in the study. Click map to view full-size version. (Courtesy of Bernie Beckerman/UC Berkeley)
The researchers found that people living in areas with the highest concentrations of ozone, such as the Los Angeles metropolitan area and California's Central Valley, had a 25 to 30 percent greater annual risk of dying from respiratory diseases compared with people from regions with the lowest levels of the pollutant. Those locations included the Great Plains area and regions near San Francisco and Seattle.

"This is the first time we've been able to connect chronic exposure to ozone, one of the most widespread pollutants in the world, with the risk of death, arguably the most important outcome in health impact studies used to justify air quality regulations," said study lead author Michael Jerrett, UC Berkeley associate professor of environmental health sciences. "Previous research has connected short-term or acute ozone exposure to impaired lung function, aggravated asthma symptoms, increased emergency room visits and hospitalizations, but the impact of long-term exposure to ozone on mortality had not been pinned down until now."

The study found that for every 10 parts-per-billion (ppb) increase in ozone level, there is a 4 percent increase in risk of death from respiratory causes, primarily pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

"World Health Organization data indicate that about 240,000 people die each year from respiratory causes in the United States," said Jerrett. "Even a 4 percent increase can translate into thousands of excess deaths each year. Globally, some 7.7 million people die from respiratory causes, so worldwide the impact of ozone pollution could be very large."
Quoting TomballTXPride:
920:

Priorities need to be accessed upon level or importance.

Some issues take precedent, others take the back seat.

I don't see the issue here.
I agree it's about priorities. Now, who here is willing to admit that, in their opinion, breathable air, drinkable water, and livable temperatures should "take the back seat" to corporate profits? Surely no clear-thinking person (or political party) would have such a skewed set of priorities, right?

Right?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Jeff lives in Tomball like me, hence the neighbor reference. Aren't you also from Texas?

Thanks for the explanation! LOL Just sounded weird.
943. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
I agree it's about priorities. Now, who here is willing to admit that, in their opinion, breathable air, drinkable water, and livable temperatures should "take the back seat" to corporate profits? Surely no clear-thinking person (or political party) would have such a skewed set of priorities, right?

Right?



we just had a president elected let's see how it goes...
Quoting Neapolitan:
I agree it's about priorities. Now, who here is willing to admit that, in their opinion, breathable air, drinkable water, and livable temperatures should "take the back seat" to corporate profits? Surely no clear-thinking person (or political party) would have such a skewed set of priorities, right?

Right?

Sure. Twist the words around and make it look like something it totally is not. Oldest trick in the book.
Quoting bappit:

Thanks for the explanation! LOL Just sounded weird.

Anytime.
Quoting eyeofbetsy:


So.... it's a profit thing. The evil corporations win again. Have a nice day RTS. ROTFLMAO


That's not me, I can assure you.

I was only banned for 4 hours, with the remark "Take a break". Implying the moderator probably doesn't entirely disagree with me either, but I can say I touched on some sensitive areas with certain members.

The video I linked to was probably just too much.

I did not circumvent the ban, and I have no connection to the poster "sheople".
Quoting ScottLincoln:

The NWS still has its issues/faults, just as any large entity - government or otherwise - should be expected to have. As with anything in these environments, it takes many people leading and pushing for improvements to make things better, and sometimes progress is slow.
Of course they have faults/issues. They're not perfect. I didn't say they were. To be clearer, they're a perfect example of showing a coordinated single goverment agency without a profit motive and with government funding serves the public well-being better than any combo of private companies could do.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

We have to pick our battles, and pick them wisely. I respectfully disagree, neighbor.


so let me get this straight... You propose that it is good to end Ozone and PM2.5 monitoring... but also good to build an airfield and small port without connections to any town nearby... to the tune of $77 million. Source

Or the US Navy dropping $12 million on biofuels to "showcase the fuel"... that $12 million was only $27 a gallon.

Or how food stamps can be used to purchase alcohol and junk food.

Or how oil companies get massive tax breaks yet turn record profits well above the value of those tax breaks.

Or how $5.1 million was spent on building a THIRD golf course at Andrews AFB.

I can go on like this all day...

Yeah, someone needs their priorities adjusted, and its not me.
Quoting jeffs713:


so let me get this straight... You propose that it is good to end Ozone and PM2.5 monitoring... but also good to build an airfield and small port without connections to any town nearby... to the tune of $77 million. Source

Or the US Navy dropping $12 million on biofuels to "showcase the fuel"... that $12 million was only $27 a gallon.

Or how food stamps can be used to purchase alcohol and junk food.

Or how oil companies get massive tax breaks yet turn record profits well above the value of those tax breaks.

Or how $5.1 million was spent on building a THIRD golf course at Andrews AFB.

I can go on like this all day...

Yeah, someone needs their priorities adjusted, and its not me.

Sure, Jeff. Whatever you say.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
You Guys got your man (Obama), now it's his time to make his move. We shouldn't even be talking about this if it was that important.

Priorities, people.


Congress is where bills are actually made and passed.

Unfortunately, the Republicans still own the house, and there aren't enough independents for the democrats to do anything in the Senate anyway.

Basically the government will be in a deadlock on any meaningful issues until mid-term elections, except possibly on random emergency issues like any potential wars or other calamities.
Quoting Skyepony:
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -0.43.

With the Kelvin waves dissipating earlier & farther west, looking like a cooler neutral for the winter.


Fcst for AO is strongly -ve for the next week. With ENSO neutral, ern US should be cooling off but that doesn't jibe with current CPC forecast of above average for nearly all of the lower 48. Lies, damned lies and statistics :)
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Sure, Jeff. Whatever you say.


My point is that there are lots more effective targets to save money than cutting monitoring of our air.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Congress is where bills are actually made and passed.

Unfortunately, the Republicans still own the house, and there aren't enough independents for the democrats to do anything in the Senate anyway.

Basically the government will be in a deadlock on any meaningful issues until mid-term elections, except possibly on random emergency issues like any potential wars or other calamities.


Wait till January when the fiscal cliff arrives. Expect hundreds of dollars less in your pay check for the month.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Congress is where bills are actually made and passed.

Unfortunately, the Republicans still own the house, and there aren't enough independents for the democrats to do anything in the Senate anyway.

Basically the government will be in a deadlock on any meaningful issues until mid-term elections, except possibly on random emergency issues like any potential wars or other calamities.

Very true.

When rhetoric (on BOTH sides of the aisle) becomes more important than actually managing the country, we are in a sad state as a society.

Our country was founded upon compromise. Not a "take-it-or-leave-it" attitude, nor a "you can't touch my sacred cow" mentality. Over the past several congressional sessions, there has been a dearth of compromise, and a lot of rhetoric.

Unfortunately, after all that rhetoric, some beneficial programs have been victim of the spending chopping block, like the ozone/PM2.5 monitoring, and weather satellite launches.


BAD
Quoting jeffs713:

Very true.

When rhetoric (on BOTH sides of the aisle) becomes more important than actually managing the country, we are in a sad state as a society.

Our country was founded upon compromise. Not a "take-it-or-leave-it" attitude, nor a "you can't touch my sacred cow" mentality. Over the past several congressional sessions, there has been a dearth of compromise, and a lot of rhetoric.

Unfortunately, after all that rhetoric, some beneficial programs have been victim of the spending chopping block, like the ozone/PM2.5 monitoring, and weather satellite launches.


Interesting article on the 1939 St. Louis smog event.

"Smoke pollution had been a problem in St. Louis for many decades prior to the event, due to the large-scale burning of bituminous (soft) coal to provide heat and power for homes, businesses and transport.[1] In 1893, the Council passed an ordinance prohibiting the emission of "thick grey smoke within the corporate limits of St. Louis" but was unable to enforce it because of legal action taken by one of the worst corporate offenders.[2] The effectiveness of laws was also limited by the lack of adequate inspection and enforcement."
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's just the way some want it.

Step 1: remove the monitors, claiming that's it's because of the "current fiscal environment".

Step 2: claim that since air pollution is no longer being measured, it clearly doesn't exist.

Step 3: claim that air pollution "clearly doesn't exist", then use that "fact" to force loosening of "unnecessary" regulations.

Perfect!!!


Well who or whom is behind this evil plot?
Quoting StormPro:


Well who or whom is behind this evil plot?

Fox News

LMAO
Quoting RitaEvac:


BAD

You foresee 2012 being a repeat of 2010 for us? I'm starting to get that feeling, Rita...
7
TXPQ27 KNES 261517
TCSWNP

A. 26W (NONAME)

B. 26/1430Z

C. 4.2N

D. 156.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS <-- 35kts / 65kph

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZTION HAS IMPROVED AND MORE DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING AROUND LLCC. WITH DT=2.5 BASED ON 5/10 BANDING. MET=2.0 AND
PAT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
Quoting jeffs713:


so let me get this straight... You propose that it is good to end Ozone and PM2.5 monitoring... but also good to build an airfield and small port without connections to any town nearby... to the tune of $77 million. Source

Or the US Navy dropping $12 million on biofuels to "showcase the fuel"... that $12 million was only $27 a gallon.

Or how food stamps can be used to purchase alcohol and junk food.

Or how oil companies get massive tax breaks yet turn record profits well above the value of those tax breaks.

Or how $5.1 million was spent on building a THIRD golf course at Andrews AFB.

I can go on like this all day...

Yeah, someone needs their priorities adjusted, and its not me.
Just had an election...did you vote for the continued "hope and change"? You will get what you deserve. Cut the welfare spending...highest in history..use some of those billions to fund whatever monitors you want. I would gladly pay these high and soon to be higher taxes for a solution..not just contributing to a lazy populous. 65 and rainy here in NOLA
963. txjac
Link

Compliments of the Associated Press.
New terminology for the upcoming UN climate change talks.


BTW ...80 degrees here in Houston and partly cloudy. Waiting for the cold front and rain that is supposed to be here later this afternoon
Good Afternoon, and politics and corporate profits aside, I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving Holiday.....Pretty cold for the SE US the past few days but a warming trend this week. Was really nice to get the Winter Chill on during Thanksgiving Weekend......Just too many leaves to bag in the yard on Friday and full again on Saturday. Gonna wait a few weeks for some fronts to finish knocking down the rest.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting jeffs713:

The notice specifies predictions. It would seem that measurements will still be taken.

There's a list of everything measured here.

"Section 182(c)(1) of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) required the Administrator to promulgate rules for the enhanced monitoring of ozone, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and volatile organic compounds (VOC) to obtain more comprehensive and representative data on ozone air pollution. Immediately following the promulgation of such rules, the affected States were to commence such actions as were necessary to adopt and implement a program to improve ambient monitoring activities and the monitoring of emissions of NOx and VOC. Each State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the affected areas must contain measures to implement the ambient monitoring of such air pollutants. The subsequent revisions to Title 40, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 58 (40 CFR 58) required States to establish Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) as part of their SIP monitoring networks in ozone nonattainment areas classified as serious, severe, or extreme."
Quoting jeffs713:


so let me get this straight... You propose that it is good to end Ozone and PM2.5 monitoring... but also good to build an airfield and small port without connections to any town nearby... to the tune of $77 million. Source

Or the US Navy dropping $12 million on biofuels to "showcase the fuel"... that $12 million was only $27 a gallon.

Or how food stamps can be used to purchase alcohol and junk food.

Or how oil companies get massive tax breaks yet turn record profits well above the value of those tax breaks.

Or how $5.1 million was spent on building a THIRD golf course at Andrews AFB.

I can go on like this all day...

Yeah, someone needs their priorities adjusted, and its not me.


Perhaps you still fail to realize that this is what Obama wants... You'll see in a few years.
Same as it ever was.
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's not me, I can assure you.

I was only banned for 4 hours, with the remark "Take a break". Implying the moderator probably doesn't entirely disagree with me either, but I can say I touched on some sensitive areas with certain members.

The video I linked to was probably just too much.

I did not circumvent the ban, and I have no connection to the poster "sheople".


i think rts means 'real time strategy' which would be the idea behind the abandonment of ozone measurement.