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Hurricane Sandy's huge size: freak of nature or climate change?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2012

Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!

Largest Atlantic tropical cyclones for area covered by tropical storm-force winds:

Olga, 2001: 780,000 square miles
Sandy, 2012: 560,000 square miles
Lili, 1996: 550,000 square miles
Igor, 2010: 550,000 square miles
Karl, 2004: 430,000 square miles



Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy’s winds (top), on October 28, 2012, when Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane with top winds of 75 mph (this ocean surface wind data is from a radar scatterometer on the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) Oceansat-2.) Hurricane Katrina’s winds (bottom) on August 28, 2005, when Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 175 mph (data taken by a radar scatterometer on NASA’s defunct QuickSCAT satellite.) In both maps, wind speeds above 65 kilometers (40 miles) per hour are yellow; above 80 kph (50 mph) are orange; and above 95 kph (60 mph) are dark red. The most noticeable difference is the extent of the strong wind fields. For Katrina, winds over 65 kilometers per hour stretched about 500 kilometers (300 miles) from edge to edge. For Sandy, winds of that intensity spanned an region of ocean three times as great--1,500 kilometers (900 miles). Katrina was able to generate a record-height storm surge over a small area of the Mississippi coast. Sandy generated a lower but highly destructive storm surge over a much larger area, due to the storm's weaker winds but much larger size. Image credit: NASA.

How did Sandy get so big?
We understand fairly well what controls the peak strength of a hurricane's winds, but have a poor understanding of why some hurricanes get large and others stay small. A number of factors probably worked together to create a "prefect storm" situation that allowed Sandy to grow so large, and we also must acknowledge that climate change could have played a role. Here are some possible reasons why Sandy grew so large:

1) Initial size of the disturbance that became Sandy was large
Sandy formed from an African tropical wave that interacted with a large area of low pressure that covered most of the Central Caribbean. Rotunno and Emanuel (1987) found that hurricanes that form from large initial tropical disturbances like Sandy did tend to end up large in size.


Figure 2. The initial disturbance that spawned Sandy, seen here on October 20, 2012, was quite large.

2) High relative humidity in Sandy's genesis region
The amount of moisture in the atmosphere may play an important role in how large a hurricane gets (Hill and Lackmann, 2009.) Sandy was spawned in the Caribbean in a region where the relative humidity was near 70%. This is the highest humidity we saw during 2012 during the formation of any Atlantic hurricane.

3) Passage over Cuba
Sandy struck Cuba as an intensifying Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. While the core of the storm was over Cuba, it was cut off from the warm ocean waters surrounding Cuba. Most of Sandy's large circulation was still over the ocean, though, and the energy the storm was able to extract from the ocean went into intensifying the spiral bands over water. When Sandy's core re-emerged over water, the hurricane now had spiral bands with heavier thunderstorm activity as a result of the extra energy pumped into the outer portion of the storm during the eye's passage over land. This extra energy in the outer portions of Sandy may have enabled it to expand in size later.

4) Interaction with a trough of low pressure over the Bahamas
As Sandy passed through the Bahamas on October 25, the storm encountered strong upper-level winds associated with a trough of low pressure to the west. These winds created high wind shear that helped weaken Sandy and destroy the eyewall. However, Sandy compensated by spreading out its tropical storm-force winds over a much wider area. Between 15 and 21 UTC on October 25, Sandy's area of tropical storm-force winds increased by more than a factor of two.

5) Leveraging of the Earth's spin
As storms move towards Earth's poles, they acquire more spin, since Earth's rotation works to put more vertical spin into the atmosphere the closer one gets to the pole. This extra spin helps storms grow larger, and we commonly see hurricanes grow in size as they move northwards.

6) Interaction with a trough of low pressure at landfall
As Sandy approached landfall in New Jersey, it encountered an extratropical low pressure system to its west. This extratropical storm began pumping cold air aloft into the hurricane, which converted Sandy into an extratropical low pressure system, or "Nor'easter". The nature of extratropical storms is to have a much larger area with strong winds than a hurricane does, since extratropical storms derive their energy from the atmosphere along a frontal boundary that is typically many hundreds of miles long. Thus, as Sandy made landfall, the hurricane's strongest winds spread out over a larger area, causing damage from Indiana to Nova Scotia.

Are we likely to see more such storms in the future?
Global warming theory (Emanuel, 2005) predicts that a 2°C (3.6°F) increase in ocean temperatures should cause an increase in the peak winds of the strongest hurricanes of about about 10%. Furthermore, warmer ocean temperatures are expected to cause hurricanes to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to computer modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). However, there has been no published work describing how hurricane size may change with warmer oceans in a future climate. We've seen an unusual number of Atlantic hurricanes with large size in recent years, but we currently have no theoretical or computer modeling simulations that can explain why this is so, or if we might see more storms like this in the future. However, we've seen significant and unprecedented changes to our atmosphere in recent decades, due to our emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide. The laws of physics demand that the atmosphere must respond. Atmospheric circulation patterns that control extreme weather events must change, and we should expect extreme storms to change in character, frequency, and intensity as a result--and not always in the ways our computer models may predict. We have pushed our climate system to a fundamentally new, higher-energy state where more heat and moisture is available to power stronger storms, and we should be concerned about the possibility that Hurricane Sandy's freak size and power were partially due to human-caused climate change.

References
Emanuel, K. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436(7051), 686-688.

Hill, Kevin A., and Gary M. Lackmann (2009), "Influence of environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size," Monthly Weather Review 137.10 (2009): 3294-3315.

Knutson, T. R., McBride, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., ... & Sugi, M. (2010). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3(3), 157-163.

Rotunno, R., & Emanuel, K. A. (1987). An air–sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci, 44(3), 542-561.

The Atlantic is quiet, but a Nor'easter expected next week
The Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss. An area of low pressure is predicted to develop just north of Bermuda on Wednesday, and the GFS model predicts that this low could become a subtropical cyclone as moves north-northeastwards out to sea late in the week.

The long-range models are in increasing agreement that a Nor'easter will develop near the North Carolina coast on Sunday, then move north to northeastwards early next week. High winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding could affect the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts next Monday and Tuesday due to this storm, but it appears likely that the Nor'easter will stay farther out to sea than the last Nor'easter and have less of an impact on the region devastated by Sandy. Ocean temperatures off the coast of North Carolina were cooled by about 4°F (2.2°C) due to the churning action of Hurricane Sandy's winds, but are still warm enough at 22 - 24°C to potentially allow the Nor'easter to acquire some subtropical characteristics. I doubt the storm would be able to become a named subtropical storm, but it could have an unusual amount of heavy rain if it does become partially tropical. The Nor'easter is still a long ways in the future, and there is still a lot of uncertainty on where the storm might go.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Why does the UV map seem to take into account Cloud Cover and Latitude but not Altitude? that seems like a major oops.
Good Morning.Td 26 in the WPAC has a weird and little unusual track in that region even though it has occurred in the past.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


IMO,NHC thinks this area near Bermuda will not develop.
Quoting allancalderini:
Good Morning.Td 26 in the WPAC has a weird and little unusual track in that region even though it has occurred in the past.

I didn't even know there was a TD in the WPAC until you just mentioned it. It could become a tropical storm before landfall.

hydrus, that concrete dock deck must have had serious design issues to get completely removed by a cat 1 in the first year after construction.
I guess naming your town big mouth is better than rat's mouth.
Yo' has a good point in that you don't notice sea level rise year in and year out as tide cycles and storm systems rise and fall. It is the major events bringing storm surge from into your yard, to into your house...or into the subway and tunnels,that cause you to take notice. Why would you notice two or three or four millimeters a year when the tide rises and falls thousands of times that twice a day?
Sure over 20 years it adds up, but if it isn't your house or hotel whose foundation is getting washed out during a strong new moon tide (like today) on year 19, you don't notice.
[FYI sea level rise is the climate, not climate change. The rate can be argued]
Sorry to be so verbose on here this morning. Is there a Jet Stream and ITCZ overlay for the Sat Animation?
Following yesterday's block-buster by the professional business service giant PricewaterhouseCoopers, today brings a statement in the International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012 that looks like it was written by a member of 350.org.

The IEA report can be downloaded here.

The statement for those who just want the meat is:

"No more than one-third of proven reserves of fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2 °C goal, unless carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is widely deployed. This finding is based on our assessment of global “carbon 16 reserves”, measured as the potential CO2 emissions from proven fossil-fuel reserves. Almost two-thirds of these carbon reserves are related to coal, 22% to oil and 15% to gas. Geographically, two-thirds are held by North America, the Middle East, China and Russia. These findings underline the importance of CCS as a key option to mitigate CO2 emissions, but its pace of deployment remains highly uncertain, with only a handful of commercial- scale projects currently in operation."

Personally, I think they are placing too much hope in CCS, sort of like a friend of mine who keeps taking about fusion.


510. etxwx
Good morning everyone. It's a chilly morning here in East Texas, possible frost tonight.

In today's insect news....
Grasshoppers that live in noisy urban environments are having to change their song, a study has found.
BBC 11.14.12
Excerpt: Researchers suggest that high levels of background noise may affect the grasshoppers' mating process. They say the insects are forced to increase the volume of the low-frequency sections of their call.

Results of the study, by scientists from the University of Bielefeld, Germany, are published in the journal Functional Ecology. The research, which shows traffic noise could upset bow-winged grasshoppers' (Chorthippus biguttulus) mating system, is the first of its kind, according to lead researcher Ulrike Lampe.

"Increased noise levels could affect grasshopper courtship in several ways," commented Ms Lampe. "It could prevent females from hearing male courtship songs properly, prevent females from recognising males of their own species, or impair females' ability to estimate how attractive a male is from his song."

More details here.
Good Morning all,
41 degrees,P/Cloudy,76%RH,5 mph winds from the NNE,30.27"
A webcam pic from around here..





1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida



513. etxwx
Household bio-reactors have powerful future
Video here (transcript is also available at the video link)
by Ben Gruber - Reuters - Nov. 12
Summary: Researchers at the Argonne National Laboratory are developing a mobile reactor they say will one day play a crucial role in helping people after natural disasters like Hurricane Sandy. The reactor can convert kitchen and bathroom waste into a high energy fuel that can be made at home and used to power generators during a power outage.
Quoting pcola57:




1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida



yes cloudy and a bit cool today, but not too bad overall here, cold front will be over me in a day or so
I'm having another cool and blustery morning today.Didn't wear a coat because if your a true Washingtonian this cold and wind isn't anything we can't handle!.Another coastal storm will once again bring rain clouds and cool temps to the region.It won't be to long now before we're looking at snow.December don't disappoint me like the last one..felt more like spring than anything.
Quoting etxwx:
Household bio-reactors have powerful future
Video here (transcript is also available at the video link)
by Ben Gruber - Reuters - Nov. 12
Summary: Researchers at the Argonne National Laboratory are developing a mobile reactor they say will one day play a crucial role in helping people after natural disasters like Hurricane Sandy. The reactor can convert kitchen and bathroom waste into a high energy fuel that can be made at home and used to power generators during a power outage.


Very important work indeed..one with far reaching and positive results..
If/when they can get it financially feasible it will be a great step in the right direction and will start paving the way to better tech in this area..
Thanks for that etxwx.. :)
Quoting LargoFl:
yes cloudy and a bit cool today, but not too bad overall here, cold front will be over me in a day or so


It's comin'!!..
Quoting pcola57:


Very important work indeed..one with far reaching and positive results..
If/when they can get it financially feasible it will be a great step in the right direction and will start paving the way to better tech in this area..
Thanks for that etxwx.. :)
yes and..it gets rid of waste, but i'd like to know who..is going to collect it and put INto the reactor?..you get the picture...kitchen and "bathroom" waste
Quoting pcola57:


It's comin'!!..
yes it sure is, going to go all the way down to south florida this week
..............................cool in texas today also
Quoting LargoFl:
yes and..it gets rid of waste, but i'd like to know who..is going to collect it and put INto the reactor?..you get the picture


You know I would definitely use it ..smell or no smell..I've had enough of Big Oil/$$$$ ..No more BP for me and not to mention behind the scenes politician and "cup and ball" games..
Saudi's (and other countries we import from)can keep their oil..
I wonder how that taste's on their Cheerio's.. :)
WASHINGTON (AP) %u2014 Climate change is suddenly a hot topic again. The issue is resurfacing in talks about a once radical idea: a possible carbon tax.

On Tuesday, a conservative think tank held discussions about it while a more liberal think tank released a paper on it. And the Congressional Budget Office issued a 19-page report on the different ways to make a carbon tax less burdensome on lower income people.


A carbon tax works by making people pay more for using fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas that produce heat-trapping carbon dioxide.

The idea was considered so radical that in 2009, when President Barack Obama tried to pass a bill on global warming, that he instead opted for the more moderate approach of capping power plant emissions and trading credits that allowed utilities to pollute more. That idea, after passing the House, stalled in the Senate in 2010 and has been considered dead since.

Even so, the Obama administration has no plans to push for a carbon tax now, said a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity because there are no discussions about the issue.

The whole issue of climate change was virtually absent during the presidential campaign until Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast. The devastating superstorm %u2014 a rarity for the Northeast %u2014 and an election that led to Democratic gains have shoved global warming back into the conversation. So has the hunt for answers to a looming budget crisis.


Link
Quoting pcola57:


You know I would definitely use it ..smell or no smell..I've had enough of Big Oil/$$$$ ..No more BP for me and not to mention behind the scenes politician and "cup and ball" games..
Saudi's can keep their oil..
I wonder how that taste's on their Cheerio's.. :)
I heard about the news of the U.S becoming oil independent and using our own resources.I hope so.So many people have lost their lives in trying to get this oil it's rediculous.That's one of the reasons we were fighting in the war.

522..sounds like people are having their freedom being taken away from them just like I said.Just look here in D.C..they are making us pay 5 cent for plastic bags.
looks like Patrap has nice but cool weather today......
Good Morning..is it safe to post weather maps?



Quoting goosegirl1:
WASHINGTON (AP) %u2014 Climate change is suddenly a hot topic again. The issue is resurfacing in talks about a once radical idea: a possible carbon tax.

On Tuesday, a conservative think tank held discussions about it while a more liberal think tank released a paper on it. And the Congressional Budget Office issued a 19-page report on the different ways to make a carbon tax less burdensome on lower income people.


A carbon tax works by making people pay more for using fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas that produce heat-trapping carbon dioxide.

The idea was considered so radical that in 2009, when President Barack Obama tried to pass a bill on global warming, that he instead opted for the more moderate approach of capping power plant emissions and trading credits that allowed utilities to pollute more. That idea, after passing the House, stalled in the Senate in 2010 and has been considered dead since.

Even so, the Obama administration has no plans to push for a carbon tax now, said a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity because there are no discussions about the issue.

The whole issue of climate change was virtually absent during the presidential campaign until Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast. The devastating superstorm %u2014 a rarity for the Northeast %u2014 and an election that led to Democratic gains have shoved global warming back into the conversation. So has the hunt for answers to a looming budget crisis.


Link
with 14 or more trillion dollars in the red..im sure we are going to see taxes we never would have thought possible in the near future
I guess this is coming down my way later in the week..not too bad.................................
From Facebook

Henry Margusity Fan Club
NAO going back down again so watch the coast this weekend. If NAO continues on NEG, wild winter ahead.
529. etxwx
Quoting pcola57:


Very important work indeed..one with far reaching and positive results..
If/when they can get it financially feasible it will be a great step in the right direction and will start paving the way to better tech in this area..
Thanks for that etxwx.. :)


You are welcome, pcola57, I found it heartening too. Sometimes you see posts worrying about "going back to horse and buggy days" but there are potentially many ways to reduce our use of fossil fuels and still maintain a modern, but low impact lifestyle. I don't think my computer cares if the electricity that powers it comes from wind, solar or coal, but it sure makes a difference to the atmosphere. Having a small back up generator that ran on household wastes would be a big help in quieting those who worry about the sun "not always shining and the wind not always blowing".

I think folks sometimes want to find that one size fits all energy solution, but in reality I believe it will be a lot of different solutions for various situations that will work together. That's my hope anyway.
530. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Succession when talking about states leaving the union is completely correct. Don't let others tell you otherwise.


Sure about that?

From wiki.

Succession of states is a theory and practice in international relations regarding the recognition and acceptance of a newly created sovereign state by other states, based on a perceived historical relationship the new state has with a prior state. The theory has its root in 19th century diplomacy.

Secession (derived from the Latin term secessio) is the act of withdrawing from an organization, union, or especially a political entity...

Quoting goosegirl1:
WASHINGTON (AP) %u2014 Climate change is suddenly a hot topic again. The issue is resurfacing in talks about a once radical idea: a possible carbon tax.

On Tuesday, a conservative think tank held discussions about it while a more liberal think tank released a paper on it. And the Congressional Budget Office issued a 19-page report on the different ways to make a carbon tax less burdensome on lower income people.


A carbon tax works by making people pay more for using fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas that produce heat-trapping carbon dioxide.

The idea was considered so radical that in 2009, when President Barack Obama tried to pass a bill on global warming, that he instead opted for the more moderate approach of capping power plant emissions and trading credits that allowed utilities to pollute more. That idea, after passing the House, stalled in the Senate in 2010 and has been considered dead since.

Even so, the Obama administration has no plans to push for a carbon tax now, said a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity because there are no discussions about the issue.

The whole issue of climate change was virtually absent during the presidential campaign until Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast. The devastating superstorm %u2014 a rarity for the Northeast %u2014 and an election that led to Democratic gains have shoved global warming back into the conversation. So has the hunt for answers to a looming budget crisis.


Link


A much needed idea as business only listens to the $ sign..
However,I am concerned about the timing of the tax..
Quoting LargoFl:
with 14 or more trillion dollars in the red..im sure we are going to see taxes we never would have thought possible in the near future
Exactly.
Quoting ncstorm:
From Facebook

Henry Margusity Fan Club
NAO going back down again so watch the coast this weekend. If NAO continues on NEG, wild winter ahead.
Ohh I hope so.My poor salt that I brought for last winter has been getting dusty.The poor thing looks depressed right now.lol.
06z Nogaps

00z Euro




Quoting etxwx:


You are welcome, pcola57, I found it heartening too. Sometimes you see posts worrying about "going back to horse and buggy days" but there are potentially many ways to reduce our use of fossil fuels and still maintain a modern, but low impact lifestyle. I don't think my computer cares if the electricity that powers it comes from wind, solar or coal, but it sure makes a difference to the atmosphere. Having a small back up generator that ran on household wastes would be a big help in quieting those who worry about the sun "not always shining and the wind not always blowing".

I think folks sometimes want to find that one size fits all energy solution, but in reality I believe it will be a lot of different solutions for various situations that will work together. That's my hope anyway.


Very well put.. :)
535. etxwx
Quoting LargoFl:
yes and..it gets rid of waste, but i'd like to know who..is going to collect it and put INto the reactor?..you get the picture...kitchen and "bathroom" waste


*raises hand* I will! I already have a compost bucket and am a whiz at shoveling manure. :-D

Seriously, I'm guessing a household waste reactor could be plumbed into the system. Kinda like a septic tank. We already have ways of pumping out black water from motor homes, etc. so I think we could work out the sanitary part.

And if the smell is a concern, have you ever been around an oilfield or refinery? Not pleasant at all. Old timey Texans call it the smell of money, but it still reeks. I'll take the smell of manure anytime. ;-)
Alot of clouds in the conus this am..
And Canada as well..

The smell of manure - the smell of eating veggies that you picked two hours ago.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Take it outside Godboy.
You might want to look up the definition of metaphor... or analogy. Either word might help you understand a thread of discussion that was about climate change not religion and that, until you commented, was amazingly civil. I flagged your comment.

Ps. Ditto, Waltanater 503.
539. etxwx
Update on the California Cap and Trade Auction today:
California's cap-and-trade auction may be disrupted by Chamber of Commerce lawsuit
via McClatchey News 11.14.12
Excerpt: California's most powerful business lobby filed a last-minute lawsuit Tuesday that could spoil today's launch of the state's cap-and-trade market to curtail greenhouse gases.

The lawsuit by the California Chamber of Commerce challenges the validity of the state-run auction of carbon emission allowances – the centerpiece of AB 32, California's climate change law. The chamber, which has been protesting the auction for months, says the sale is really an unconstitutional tax.

California expects to raise billions of dollars from selling carbon credits over the next several years, with the first sale set for today.

In its lawsuit, the chamber didn't seek a court order blocking today's auction, and state officials said the sale would proceed as scheduled. Instead, the chamber is trying to eliminate future auctions, which are set for regular intervals over the next eight years, said Loren Kaye of the California Foundation for Commerce and Education, a chamber affiliate.

Even though today's auction will go forward, the chamber's lawsuit could have a chilling effect on the bidding.

"Filing this lawsuit on the eve of the first auction really seems quite unsavory," said Tim O'Connor, director of the Environmental Defense Fund's California climate and energy initiative. "They're throwing a wrench in California's comprehensive program" to curb greenhouse gases.

Jon Costantino, executive director of the Association of Carbon Market Participants, said potential bidders might think twice about jumping into today's auction. He envisioned a scenario in which "you're a successful bidder and the auction is invalidated."

More on this here.
Quoting jeffs713:
The smell of manure - the smell of eating veggies that you picked two hours ago.
Hi jeffs,
Maybe we could just bury it in the ground the way cats do and plant trees over it. I'm serious. Though this would probably not work on a large scale, like an urban area.
Manure stinks.When the people come to plant the bushes and flowers it is a god awful smell that stays around almost the whole day.Especially when it's hot outside.Good lord!.
There really is a lack of education in this country concerning electricity. If people were as educated about playing with & using electricity like they were horses in the 1800 we could be so much farther along. One problem is corporations & such want it to be a product we purchase every bit of instead of learn how to produce on our properties & sell back to the grid & others that would just rather buy it. We should be the power plants producing clean electricity from our rooftops & such.

Electricity is pretty easy to make..I've figured out how to make solar panels for ~50 cent a watt. Nothing compared to these four African girls..they made a generator that creates 6 hrs of electricity from 1Liter of urine. That could be the toilet that revolutionizes the world..
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
You might want to look up the definition of metaphor... or analogy. Either word might help you understand a thread of discussion that was about climate change not religion and that, until you commented, was amazingly civil. I flagged your comment.
As I was in said conversation, I can say that there was no mention or inference of metaphor or analogy. Rather it was more like being pestered by a kid asking why? after every explanation. I also felt like I was feeding a troll, because never did he bring related information to the discussion, but rather badgered with a book that has NOTHING to do with SCIENCE, but entirely of MYTHOLOGY.

Please explain to me how that is at all metaphorical or analogous.
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..is it safe to post weather maps?



I too will post weather charts at my own peril...This is looking like a winter pattern, and should gradually become more amplified as time progresses.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Take it outside Godboy.
This is entirely funny..I needed to smile this morning..Thank you F.V.
Rain!!:)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Manure stinks.When the people come to plant the bushes and flowers it is a god awful smell that stays around almost the whole day.Especially when it's hot outside.Good lord!.

Rainy's back!!!!!!! Yah!!!!!!

:)
Their are some things that science cannot explain.Some things are still un known in the universe and those unknown things well most of them should stay unknown for the better of man kind.At least that's what my professor told me over some 20 years ago.Somethings cannot be given a explaination.Some people who have nothing wrong with them say they might have seen a ghost but cannot scientifically explain it because no one will beleieve them..but they know what they saw and it will belong in the category of the unknown...
Today is GIS day, Folks:

Link





550. etxwx
As U.S. hesitates, California pours billions into green energy
By Rory Carroll

SAN FRANCISCO | Wed Nov 14, 2012
(Reuters) - Excerpt: California, long the national leader in clean energy policy, is poised to double down on its investments in the sector, with billions in new subsidies set to flow in over the next few years.

California voters last week directed some $2.5 billion to energy conservation programs with the approval of Proposition 39, which closes a corporate tax loophole, allocates about half of the new revenue to environmental goals for five years, and which passed with more than 60 percent of the vote.

In addition, the state this week will begin selling "carbon allowances" as it implements a cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gasses. Revenues from those sales, which could reach $11 billion a year by 2020, will also be used for clean energy development.

The new programs come on top of a solar power subsidy program, now in its fourth year, which has driven a widespread adoption of rooftop solar systems around the state. And an aggressive effort to require electric utilities to use renewable sources for one-third of their output has also given the sector a big financial boost and spurred the construction of several massive solar power plants throughout the state.

"We put our money where our mouths are," said Mary Nichols, chair of the California Air Resources Board, the agency charged with implementing the state's cap-and-trade system.

"We back up what we do in regulation by shifting subsidies from things that pollute and are inefficient to things that are more efficient and make our state more resilient," she said.


Complete article here.
Quoting etxwx:
As U.S. hesitates, California pours billions into green energy
By Rory Carroll

SAN FRANCISCO | Wed Nov 14, 2012
(Reuters) - Excerpt: California, long the national leader in clean energy policy, is poised to double down on its investments in the sector, with billions in new subsidies set to flow in over the next few years.

California voters last week directed some $2.5 billion to energy conservation programs with the approval of Proposition 39, which closes a corporate tax loophole, allocates about half of the new revenue to environmental goals for five years, and which passed with more than 60 percent of the vote.

In addition, the state this week will begin selling "carbon allowances" as it implements a cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gasses. Revenues from those sales, which could reach $11 billion a year by 2020, will also be used for clean energy development.

The new programs come on top of a solar power subsidy program, now in its fourth year, which has driven a widespread adoption of rooftop solar systems around the state. And an aggressive effort to require electric utilities to use renewable sources for one-third of their output has also given the sector a big financial boost and spurred the construction of several massive solar power plants throughout the state.

"We put our money where our mouths are," said Mary Nichols, chair of the California Air Resources Board, the agency charged with implementing the state's cap-and-trade system.

"We back up what we do in regulation by shifting subsidies from things that pollute and are inefficient to things that are more efficient and make our state more resilient," she said.


Complete article here.
That is a good move for California, and they need to do it more than any other state for the obvious reasons. This is how L.A. looks through a layer of smog.
Quoting AegirsGal:
As I was in said conversation, I can say that there was no mention or inference of metaphor or analogy. Rather it was more like being pestered by a kid asking why? after every explanation. I also felt like I was feeding a troll, because never did he bring related information to the discussion, but rather badgered with a book that has NOTHING to do with SCIENCE, but entirely of MYTHOLOGY.

Please explain to me how that is at all metaphorical or analogous.
In a word, "Proof." No proof of creation or a higher being. No proof global warming caused Sandy to be as big, destructive or unusual as she was.

Don't kid yourself about science. Science did not convince humans to evacuate Staten Island. Plaquemines for Isaac. Bolivar for Ike.

For solving any problem that involves the ever present human factor, a game plan with a view of "Science vs Mythology," will not work. After all, we do have Colleges of Arts and Sciences. If humans are going to fight their way out of this paper bag, they'll need all the brainpower they can get, from both sides of their brains.

Also, regarding the conversation in comments last night. Whatever words or actions, there are as many different interpretations possible as there are humans on earth. Another example of, let me call it "Humanity," the reason pure science will not work for changing the human condition.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
In a word, "Proof." No proof of creation or a higher being. No proof global warming caused Sandy to be as big, destructive or unusual as she was.

Don't kid yourself about science. Science did not convince humans to evacuate Staten Island. Plaquemines for Isaac. Bolivar for Ike.

For solving any problem that involves the ever present human factor, a game plan with a view of "Science vs Mythology," will not work. After all, we do have Colleges of Arts and Sciences. If humans are going to fight their way out of this paper bag, they'll need all the brainpower they can get, from both sides of their brains.

Also, regarding the conversation in comments last night. Whatever words or actions, there are as many different interpretations possible as there are humans on earth. Another example of, let me call it "Humanity," the reason pure science will not work for changing the human condition.
While I will agree your argument has merit, it's a day late, a dollar short, and misses the point entirely.
Quoting AegirsGal:
While I will agree your argument has merit, it's a day late, a dollar, short and misses the point entirely.
LOL. This comment proves my point.
An extract from a Reuter's article on "Sandy and NYC Hospitals" - a somewhat telling indictment, sadly.



EMERGENCY DRILLS LIGHT ON DETAIL
What hospitals must do to harden themselves against disaster is determined by a patchwork of federal, state and local regulations. The Joint Commission mandates a long list of preparedness steps, including running disaster drills.

But many hospitals just go through the motions, said Dr. Dan Hanfling, special advisor on emergency preparedness at Inova Health System : "Until events of Sandy's magnitude come along, emergency preparedness is just a box that has to be checked."

Virtually no emergency drills simulate a disaster inside a hospital. "I can't remember the last time a hospital ran a disaster drill where the hospital itself was the site of the disaster," Kellerman said.

The Commission also requires hospitals to maintain back-up power equipment and test it 12 times a year for half an hour and for four hours once every three years. There is no requirement for war-gaming a situation that knocks out that equipment.

Only with "new construction or renovation projects" are hospitals supposed to place such equipment above flood level, explained the Commission' Mills, and even in those cases it is something that "should" be considered but is not required. That means the stricken New York hospitals are not unusual.

"We are definitely making progress in preparedness, but many hospitals are still trying to figure this out,"said Inova's Hanfling. "They would fare about the same" should another storm like Sandy roar ashore.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
LOL. This comment proves my point.

Agree.
Barefootontherocks...

"No proof global warming caused Sandy to be as big, destructive or unusual as she was."



I would go out to say to that those Gulf Stream waters pointing north were a good 4-5 Celsius above average where Sandy Crossed from the Outer Banks of North Carolina up to New Jersey. This was the same area in which she begin transitioning into an extra tropical system. Those waters being 4-5 Celsius above normal ARE certainly one MAJOR factor in increasing the frequency of Sandy type storms to that region. There are obviously other factors as well. We just don't know to what degree of the affect could be. That is something we will know more about in the decades to come.

The warmer the water the more energy available to be transferred during the process. Basic Law of Thermodynamics supports that hypothesis.

Quoting ILwthrfan:
Barefootontherocks...

"No proof global warming caused Sandy to be as big, destructive or unusual as she was."



I would go out to say to that those Gulf Stream waters pointing north were a good 4-5 Celsius above average where Sandy Crossed from the Outer Banks of North Carolina up to New Jersey. This was the same area in which she begin transitioning into an extra tropical system. Those waters being 4-5 Celsius above normal ARE certainly one MAJOR factor in increasing the frequency of Sandy type storms to that region. There are obviously other factors as well. We just don't know to what degree of the affect could be. That is something we know about in the decades to come.

The warmer the water the more energy available to be transferred during the process. Basic Law of Thermodynamics supports that hypothesis.


Terrific Point, Illinois Weather Fan. Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy. That is unscientific. Rather, it's more like AGW could have and likely have contributed to Sandy in one way or another. And you illustrated a very fine point in addressing the Sea surface temperatures quite nicely. However, let's be careful, because we also have seen those temperatures far above average like this in years past that didn't produce Sandy.

Great point, IWF. How's the weather in Mattoon Charleston area? Good I'm assuming?
Quoting etxwx:


*raises hand* I will! I already have a compost bucket and am a whiz at shoveling manure. :-D

Seriously, I'm guessing a household waste reactor could be plumbed into the system. Kinda like a septic tank. We already have ways of pumping out black water from motor homes, etc. so I think we could work out the sanitary part.

And if the smell is a concern, have you ever been around an oilfield or refinery? Not pleasant at all. Old timey Texans call it the smell of money, but it still reeks. I'll take the smell of manure anytime. ;-)


Heck yeah! Honestly, if one of these could also work with varied animal waste, this household would be all set. Not like I don't have to clean up the poo anyway.

And yeah, having some way to largely plumb whatever into the system would make more people likely to use it (and probably be safer in the long run, since lots of folks aren't, um, up on sanitary handling of such things.) I was a country kid and I'm pretty unfazed by all kinds of stuff, but most people have a pretty strong ick reaction.

It's a cool idea, anyway. Hope they can get it to work efficiently, I'd totally be on it if it were affordable and efficient.
Quoting LargoFl:
with 14 or more trillion dollars in the red..im sure we are going to see taxes we never would have thought possible in the near future


I agree. I know that it will be hard for families, but if the tax hits the right people, and the rest of us try to conserve to reduce the tax load, I am all in favor of this. I hope there are no die-hard coal people here to read this... carbon taxes are extremely unpopular in WV :)
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Barefootontherocks...

"No proof global warming caused Sandy to be as big, destructive or unusual as she was."



I would go out to say to that those Gulf Stream waters pointing north were a good 4-5 Celsius above average where Sandy Crossed from the Outer Banks of North Carolina up to New Jersey. This was the same area in which she begin transitioning into an extra tropical system. Those waters being 4-5 Celsius above normal ARE certainly one MAJOR factor in increasing the frequency of Sandy type storms to that region. There are obviously other factors as well. We just don't know to what degree of the affect could be. That is something we know about in the decades to come.

The warmer the water the more energy available to be transferred during the process. Basic Law of Thermodynamics supports that hypothesis.

I think the biggest factor was the block near Greenland - which you could relate to Arctic ice melt this summer, yadda, yadda yadda. As you say, just hypotheses at this point.
...

Thanks for the replies this morning, bloggers. Time for me to fly.
:)
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Heck yeah! Honestly, if one of these could also work with varied animal waste, this household would be all set. Not like I don't have to clean up the poo anyway.

And yeah, having some way to largely plumb whatever into the system would make more people likely to use it (and probably be safer in the long run, since lots of folks aren't, um, up on sanitary handling of such things.) I was a country kid and I'm pretty unfazed by all kinds of stuff, but most people have a pretty strong ick reaction.

It's a cool idea, anyway. Hope they can get it to work efficiently, I'd totally be on it if it were affordable and efficient.



Give the ick jobs to the mothers- we are immune to poo and ick of all kinds!
Quoting AegirsGal:
Ever heard of Hydrogen and Helium? I do not believe the bible is anything but a book written by men. If you choose to believe it is something more, that is your prerogative. To bring it up as anything other than what it is in a scientific forum such as this, seems inflammatory since it lacks any basis in science.


But....example "Story of Noah's Ark". Look at all the different Cultures around the world that had same general theme story, all which were separated by distances in which travel was very limited as well as contact. I would go out to say that there something very factual about Noah's Ark. When you have that great of number of a statistic sample (in the hundreds) of Cultures all being nearly independent of one another all stating the same general theme. Then you have actual data saying this...


LINK TO SITE

Now we are seeing these type of things popping up...The Yonaguni Monument off the coast of Japan, which was last above sea level at the least around 10,500 BC. When we reconstruct the coastline back then we can see that there a half dozen or so "ancient sunken cities" that would have lied near or on the coast back at that time.

We are using science to in fact show truth to some of stories in the Bible, so I would not dispute them as nothing, but rather look at them to be tested
Quoting hydrus:
That is a good move for California, and they need to do it more than any other state for the obvious reasons. This is how L.A. looks through a layer of smog.


Yep. Having driven through there a lot of times -- the whole area just E of LA, man, I don't know how people stand it. Grey strip malls, grey freeways, grey air. I know lots of folks who grew up down there, some who still live there, it seems like it just doesn't occur to them. It's normal.

For me, every time I go down there, though I think a lot of the landscape is pretty in its own ways and so on, I cannot _wait_ to get out of that smog. And it's not like I live somewhere that doesn't have any, it's just a whole different level.
Quoting goosegirl1:



Give the ick jobs to the mothers- we are immune to poo and ick of all kinds!


Ha! It's true. If moms didn't develop this amazing immunity, we'd probably none of us survive infancy, because man, babies... they have some ick. Good thing they're cute. ;)

For me, it's been horses, actually -- muck enough stalls, take care of enough very bloody small wounds, get bucked off into a fresh pile... you get over it. It all washes off.
New blog coming..
I can feel it (I think thats what I feel..LOL)
Wait for it..Wait for it..j/k :)
Quoting hydrus:
That is a good move for California, and they need to do it more than any other state for the obvious reasons. This is how L.A. looks through a layer of smog.
Oh, hydrus. Wanted to say thanks for posting this news. G;lad to see Californians continue to address air quality problems. I remember an August in mid-1970s east of Los Angeles being stopped at a stop light with smog so thick I couldn't be sure the light was red or green. True story. (Add: SoCal skies have improved a great deal since then.)

565. ILwthrfan 4:31 PM GMT on November 14, 2012
Thanks. That's interesting.

I'm not sure what other cultures held a Noah's Ark story, but I do know the Hawaiian pre-Christian beliefs had one where the Ark landed on Maui.
...

Now I must activate my real world life. 'Bye.

Portrait of Global Aerosols





This portrait of global aerosols was produced by a GEOS-5 simulation at a 10-kilometer resolution. Dust (red) is lifted from the surface, sea salt (blue) swirls inside cyclones, smoke (green) rises from fires, and sulfate particles (white) stream from volcanoes and fossil fuel emissions.

Source: NASA

Click the word NASA above to go to the source page, or click image above for the (very large) full size version of this beautiful map.

(PS - happy GIS day! I'll be celebrating by FINALLY submitting my application for GISP certification today).
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Terrific Point, Illinois Weather Fan. Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy. That is unscientific. Rather, it's more like AGW could have and likely have contributed to Sandy in one way or another. And you illustrated a very fine point in addressing the Sea surface temperatures quite nicely. ...


As someone wrote recently global warming cannot be classified as a direct cause of Sandy but rather a systemic cause.

Global warming has so altered the entire climate system that storms like Sandy become more likely. This is the much more logical and supportable assumption.

As far as the CA "cap and trade" system being initiated why not use a direct fossil fuel carbon tax coupled with a fossil fuel dividend paid back to the entire population. Done nationwide this would use all the market forces to change behavior. People would seek to stay away from fossil fuels as much as possible to maximize their "earnings" by not paying as much tax while still earning the dividend. Let the other guy pay. If the tax was charged as the fossil fuel came out of the ground all industry, including the fossil fuel industry, would have to pay the tax. It would just be another cost passed on by industry to the final user of the fossil fuel. The cost might become part of an airline ticket or part of a bicycle but would be paid by the final consumer. The free market system with this small twist would do the job. A small percentage of the tax collected could be kept by the government to manage the system but the vast majority would be returned to the populace as an incentive to further cut fossil fuel use.

For if we don't solve this problem, we're wasting time on the rest of them.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


But....example "Story of Noah's Arc". Look at all the different Cultures around the world that had same general theme story, all which were separated by distances in which travel was very limited as well as contact. I would go out to say that there something very factual about Noah's Arc. When you have that great of number of a statistic sample (in the hundreds) of Cultures all being nearly independent of one another all stating the same general theme. Then you have actual data saying this...


LINK TO SITE

Now we are seeing these type of things popping up...The Yonaguni Monument off the coast of Japan, which was last above sea level at the least around 10,500 BC. When we reconstruct the coastline back then we can see that there a half dozen or so "ancient sunken cities" that would have lied near or on the coast back at that time.

We are using science to in fact show truth to some of stories in the Bible, so I would not dispute them as nothing, but rather look at them to be tested

There's a proverb that says: "When the last tree is cut, when the last river has been poisoned, when the last fish has been caught, then we will find out that we can't eat money."
Quoting TomballTXPride:

For someone who plusses Neapolitan every chance she can get, um, er, I think we know what's going on here.


Your obsession with the man doesn't just border on creepy, it is creepy.
Quoting MrMixon:

(PS - happy GIS day! I'll be celebrating by FINALLY submitting my application for GISP certification today).


So it is! Cheers to that and to the cert! I wonder what cocktail is most appropriate for toasting GIS. Hmmm.

And that's a gorgeous image, packed with info. Thanks for sharing it.
Quoting Xulonn:
Extreme Denial - A thorough take-down - with good graphics - of a post at Anthony Watts' AGW/CC denialist website. It was written by WUWT "regular" author "justthefacts," and titled "A Big Picture Look At “Earth’s Temperature” – “Extreme Weather” Update"

I find Tamino's graphics of increased severe weather and and related events interesting, because I've read elsewhere that there is no hard evidence of significant increases in AGW/CC related events and disasters. (Again, we're talking about sets of events, not individual events.)


We do have measures of extreme weather that are already showing trends. This isn't a forecast, it's probably already happening. The climate extremes index is one objective measure to look at, as well as the reports from the world's largest re-insurance company, Munich-Re, suggesting that natural disasters are on the rise, even when normalized by GDP.


Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6 to 10day

8 to 14day
Looks like a Warm Thanksgiving for most of the U.S. if the Outlook holds true. Dry and nice here in South Texas, haven't needed the A.C. past couple of days.
As I've said earlier this year the gulf stream will play a big role becuase it was much above average.And look what happened?.We had a warm winter a hot spring and then a blazing summer.So why is it a surprise that the gulf stream is that warm for this time of year?.There shouldn't be really.That will also help fuel these coastal storms and hopefully send me some nice snows here during Dec-Jan-Feb.We really need some which is why D.C was in a drought for most of the year until October really.
Quoting percylives:


As someone wrote recently global warming cannot be classified as a direct cause of Sandy but rather a systemic cause.

Global warming has so altered the entire climate system that storms like Sandy become more likely. This is the much more logical and supportable assumption.

As far as the CA "cap and trade" system being initiated why not use a direct fossil fuel carbon tax coupled with a fossil fuel dividend paid back to the entire population. Done nationwide this would use all the market forces to change behavior. People would seek to stay away from fossil fuels as much as possible to maximize their "earnings" by not paying as much tax while still earning the dividend. Let the other guy pay. If the tax was charged as the fossil fuel came out of the ground all industry, including the fossil fuel industry, would have to pay the tax. It would just be another cost passed on by industry to the final user of the fossil fuel. The cost might become part of an airline ticket or part of a bicycle but would be paid by the final consumer. The free market system with this small twist would do the job. A small percentage of the tax collected could be kept by the government to manage the system but the vast majority would be returned to the populace as an incentive to further cut fossil fuel use.

For if we don't solve this problem, we're wasting time on the rest of them.



Excellant idea!
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Terrific Point, Illinois Weather Fan. Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy. That is unscientific. Rather, it's more like AGW could have and likely have contributed to Sandy in one way or another. And you illustrated a very fine point in addressing the Sea surface temperatures quite nicely. However, let's be careful, because we also have seen those temperatures far above average like this in years past that didn't produce Sandy.

Great point, IWF. How's the weather in Mattoon Charleston area? Good I'm assuming?


(Boldface mine)

I am not sure what "illiterate" means aside from "unable to read" (which doesn't appear to be the way it is being used here) but I do understand the rest of the sentence. I don't read every comment on this blog every day, but I have yet to see anyone who posts here regularly ("the same talking heads") who claims AGW was the "direct and sole cause" of Sandy; not a one. This type of exaggeration weakens any case you may have.
580. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


We do have measures of extreme weather that are already showing trends. This isn't a forecast, it's probably already happening. The climate extremes index is one objective measure to look at, as well as the reports from the world's largest re-insurance company, Munich-Re, suggesting that natural disasters are on the rise, even when normalized by GDP.




i did not know a forest fire are considered a climate event because 9 out of 10 forest fires are caused by humans...
Well,time keeps going by without any mention of the Bermuda area so I assume NHC is not seeing the system developing into at least a subtropical system.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting Bielle:


(Boldface mine)

I am not sure what "illiterate" means aside from "unable to read" (which doesn't appear to be the way it is being used here) but I do understand the rest of the sentence. I don't read every comment on this blog every day, but I have yet to see anyone who posts here regularly ("the same talking heads") who claims AGW was the "direct and sole cause" of Sandy; not a one. This type of exaggeration weakens any case you may have.


+1000 :)
Does anyone have a feeling that something very bad is going to happen very soon....like within a month?
Maybe its just me....

Anyway...Even the Noreaster on the Euro is lackluster with snowfall amounts so I wouldnt count on too much snow etc.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


But....example "Story of Noah's Arc". Look at all the different Cultures around the world that had same general theme story, all which were separated by distances in which travel was very limited as well as contact. I would go out to say that there something very factual about Noah's Arc. When you have that great of number of a statistic sample (in the hundreds) of Cultures all being nearly independent of one another all stating the same general theme. Then you have actual data saying this...


LINK TO SITE

Now we are seeing these type of things popping up...The Yonaguni Monument off the coast of Japan, which was last above sea level at the least around 10,500 BC. When we reconstruct the coastline back then we can see that there a half dozen or so "ancient sunken cities" that would have lied near or on the coast back at that time.

We are using science to in fact show truth to some of stories in the Bible, so I would not dispute them as nothing, but rather look at them to be tested
10,500 B.C. predate Noahs Flood by a huge period of time. Floods are common now, but there were monumental floods the further back one goes toward the previous ice age. The Scablands of the Northwestern U.S. are one such flood due to ice and the damming of meltwater. The Med has had floods that may rival the Massoula Lake Floods.In the early 1940s, geologist Joseph Pardee first identified these wavy landforms as ripples not unlike those seen in the bed of a stream. No one had thought of them as ripples before because of their outlandish size: up to 35 feet high and several hundred feet between crests. The ripples provide perhaps the strongest evidence for monstrous ancient floods. Giant ripple marks. Long gravel ridges formed by the powerful currents that flowed across Markle Pass, near Camas Hot Springs, Montana. The view is toward the northwest.
586. yoboi
Quoting percylives:


As someone wrote recently global warming cannot be classified as a direct cause of Sandy but rather a systemic cause.

Global warming has so altered the entire climate system that storms like Sandy become more likely. This is the much more logical and supportable assumption.

As far as the CA "cap and trade" system being initiated why not use a direct fossil fuel carbon tax coupled with a fossil fuel dividend paid back to the entire population. Done nationwide this would use all the market forces to change behavior. People would seek to stay away from fossil fuels as much as possible to maximize their "earnings" by not paying as much tax while still earning the dividend. Let the other guy pay. If the tax was charged as the fossil fuel came out of the ground all industry, including the fossil fuel industry, would have to pay the tax. It would just be another cost passed on by industry to the final user of the fossil fuel. The cost might become part of an airline ticket or part of a bicycle but would be paid by the final consumer. The free market system with this small twist would do the job. A small percentage of the tax collected could be kept by the government to manage the system but the vast majority would be returned to the populace as an incentive to further cut fossil fuel use.

For if we don't solve this problem, we're wasting time on the rest of them.


you lost me with letting the goverment to manage the funds....
587. wxmod

David Keith of Harvard University said of GEOENGINEERING (reflecting sunlight away from the earth's surface to reduce global warming):
"the technology involved is 'frighteningly easy'. If we want to cut the rate of global warming by half in 2020, we'd just need two or three military aircrafts, putting 20,000 tons of sulfur in the upper atmosphere every year (much less than is polluted every year), and add more every year to offset the carbon being added."

Link:http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/none/304890-geoe ngineering-the-planet-to-solve-global-warming-conc eivable-but-controversial
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Oh, hydrus. Wanted to say thanks for posting this news. G;lad to see Californians continue to address air quality problems. I remember an August in mid-1970s east of Los Angeles being stopped at a stop light with smog so thick I couldn't be sure the light was red or green. True story. (Add: SoCal skies have improved a great deal since then.)

565. ILwthrfan 4:31 PM GMT on November 14, 2012
Thanks. That's interesting.

I'm not sure what other cultures held a Noah's Ark story, but I do know the Hawaiian pre-Christian beliefs had one where the Ark landed on Maui.
...

Now I must activate my real world life. 'Bye.

Yes. It was much worse then. It is amazing how much things have improved, but there is much more to do.
Quoting yoboi:


i did not know a forest fire are considered a climate event because 9 out of 10 forest fires are caused by humans...


It's about the conditions that help them get really out of hand. I mean, we've always had forest fires, but as somebody living in the rather dry west, the scale of them is _absolutely_ linked to climate. Year to year, though there are always _some_ fires, our fire seasons really depend on the weather patterns.

The worst is when we have a wet season followed by a few years of severe drought -- lots of understory growth of smaller plants, which all dries up and hangs out. Perfect fuel.

Most of our fires here are started by lightning, by the by. There are occasional human caused forest fires, but dry lightning storms have started most of our worst ones that I can recall. I have a friend at CalFIRE who dreads the lightning storms up on the dry slopes.
590. yoboi
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


It's about the conditions that help them get really out of hand. I mean, we've always had forest fires, but as somebody living in the rather dry west, the scale of them is _absolutely_ linked to climate. Year to year, though there are always _some_ fires, our fire seasons really depend on the weather patterns.

The worst is when we have a wet season followed by a few years of severe drought -- lots of understory growth of smaller plants, which all dries up and hangs out. Perfect fuel.

Most of our fires here are started by lightning, by the by. There are occasional human caused forest fires, but dry lightning storms have started most of our worst ones that I can recall. I have a friend at CalFIRE who dreads the lightning storms up on the dry slopes.


i was just using data from the US fire admin....almost half caused by humans was arson the rest accident.
"Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy."

I keep seeing this claim being made (the bold face part at least) and I know it is absolutely not true. It has been pointed out previously that anyone reading the blog carefully (Dr. M's part or the comments for that matter) would also know it is not true, yet the claim continues to be made. So to sort of fix things I'll make the wild exaggerated claim that people keep saying has been made already (though it has not) so the people saying that the wild exaggerated claim has been made will not look silly.

... global warming is the direct and sole cause of sandy ...

Please note that I am making this statement outside of any context, so please do not quote me on it since you would be quoting me out of context.
Quoting yoboi:


i was just using data from the US fire admin....almost half caused by humans was arson the rest accident.


Huh. Dunno what data they're using -- the big forest fire type things are usually dealt with under the authority of either state forestry depts or national forest service/national parks, depending. The jurisdiction can be very weird. I can name a lot of the big fires around here in the last few years, and they were lightning.

Guess I should also add that some of the increasing _cost_ also has to do with people developing out into areas in the west that naturally burn fairly often. If you see lots of manzanita, for example, the ecology of the area is adapted for large forest fires, they must happen reasonably often. Maybe not the best place for a new tract housing development. But we build out into those areas more now anyway. :-\
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Terrific Point, Illinois Weather Fan. Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy. That is unscientific. Rather, it's more like AGW could have and likely have contributed to Sandy in one way or another. And you illustrated a very fine point in addressing the Sea surface temperatures quite nicely. However, let's be careful, because we also have seen those temperatures far above average like this in years past that didn't produce Sandy.

Great point, IWF. How's the weather in Mattoon Charleston area? Good I'm assuming?
[ih-lit-er-uh-see]
noun, for 3.
1.
a lack of ability to read and write.
2.
the state of being illiterate; lack of any or enough education.
3.
a mistake in writing or speaking, felt to be characteristic of an illiterate or semiliterate person: a post that was full of illiteracies.
Quoting Bielle:


(Boldface mine)

I am not sure what "illiterate" means aside from "unable to read" (which doesn't appear to be the way it is being used here) but I do understand the rest of the sentence. I don't read every comment on this blog every day, but I have yet to see anyone who posts here regularly ("the same talking heads") who claims AGW was the "direct and sole cause" of Sandy; not a one. This type of exaggeration weakens any case you may have.

He's made this claim several times. I wish he'd start mentioning specifics, because those of us who actually study environmental science (including Dr. Masters' own posts) have said, repeated, re-iterated, clarified, and said again that climate is playing a role in today's weather such as Hurricane Sandy, but climate change cannot be determined as the cause of any event.
Quoting bappit:
"Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy."

I keep seeing this claim being made (the bold face part at least) and I know it is absolutely not true. It has been pointed out previously that anyone reading the blog carefully (Dr. M's part or the comments for that matter) would also know it is not true, yet the claim continues to be made. So to sort of fix things I'll make the wild exaggerated claim that people keep saying has been made already (though it has not) so the people saying that the wild exaggerated claim has been made will not look silly.

... global warming is the direct and sole cause of sandy ...

Please note that I am making this statement outside of any context, so please do not quote me on it since you would be quoting me out of context.


HA !

You are ignoring the proven effects of the spawning of the RainToad in the Upper Amazon in June ??

Ridiculous.
Quoting yoboi:


i did not know a forest fire are considered a climate event because 9 out of 10 forest fires are caused by humans...


While that number is somewhat accurate for the United States, the world wide number is estimated to be near 25%. The main reason for the large increase of man made fires in the U.S. is the encroachment of man into more rural areas as our population increases and spreads.
You know alot of claims being made here this am but very little in the way of "sources"
Coincidence ?
Convenience ?
Quoting pottery:


HA !

You are ignoring the proven effects of the spawning of the RainToad in the Upper Amazon in June ??

Ridiculous.


Morning Pot..
What's the price of ju-ju beans this am.. :) ?
Quoting goosegirl1:


I agree. I know that it will be hard for families, but if the tax hits the right people, and the rest of us try to conserve to reduce the tax load, I am all in favor of this. I hope there are no die-hard coal people here to read this... carbon taxes are extremely unpopular in WV :)
it is going to be interesting in seeing how people react to these new taxes in the near future
Quoting pottery:


HA !

You are ignoring the proven effects of the spawning of the RainToad in the Upper Amazon in June ??

Ridiculous.


Well I heard that the population of raintoads in the upper Amazon in June was actually really high this year, therefore we are heading towards an ice age...
Quoting Naga5000:


While that number is somewhat accurate for the United States, the world wide number is estimated to be near 25%. The main reason for the large increase of man made fires in the U.S. is the encroachment of man into more rural areas as our population increases and spreads.


Is that by number of events, or acres burned? I could see the number of fires, including smaller ones, having a lot more to do with direct human activity as a percentage than the acreage involved.

The Moonlight Fire from a few years back was human-accidental (from a campfire, as I recall), but it's the only one up around here I can recall that burned a really significant chunk in the last while. Some of those lightning storms this summer caused some havoc up around the northern inner coast range and then also over in Plumas Co, and the fires up around the border and into Klamath were _awful_ this year, in terms of acreage. I think all of that was lightning.

But we do have a lot of smaller grass fires and things that are often some idjit throwing a cigarette out the window, or parking the still-hot car in the tall dry grass; they're frequent, they just usually don't get nearly as out of hand.
603. yoboi
data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2000-047.pdf
Hydrus
"10,500 B.C. predate Noah's Flood by a huge period of time. Floods are common now, but there were monumental floods the further back one goes toward the previous ice age. The Scablands of the Northwestern U.S. are one such flood due to ice and the damming of meltwater. The Med has had floods that may rival the Massoula Lake Floods."



Good Stuff Hydrus

Yes, there many events before and after the Younger Dyras Event. Everywhere where glacial lakes formed only to be released when an earth or ice dam gave away. I believe the Black Sea also had large flood around 5,600 B.C. It could very well be that those Cultures where in fact witness to many isolated events that centered around the one large event in itself that started the whole domino effect then.

I for one am most intrigued by the Younger Dyras Event and it's possible relationship to certain "holy sites" around the world that correspond to a constellation that at that particular site of interest would have seen that constellation rise perfectly with the precision of the equinoxes only in the 10,500 BC time frame. The Sphinx in Egypt is aligned with Leo, The Angkor in Cambodia is aligned with Draco, there are also sites in England that do also correspond to Taurus the bull, but all only would have seen it happen during that particular time frame of 10,500. For whatever reason that point in time was important to the builder of those sites.
.....................NAEFS model in 168 hours
606. yoboi
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Is that by number of events, or acres burned? I could see the number of fires, including smaller ones, having a lot more to do with direct human activity as a percentage than the acreage involved.

The Moonlight Fire from a few years back was human-accidental (from a campfire, as I recall), but it's the only one up around here I can recall that burned a really significant chunk in the last while. Some of those lightning storms this summer caused some havoc up around the northern inner coast range and then also over in Plumas Co, and the fires up around the border and into Klamath were _awful_ this year, in terms of acreage. I think all of that was lightning.

But we do have a lot of smaller grass fires and things that are often some idjit throwing a cigarette out the window, or parking the still-hot car in the tall dry grass; they're frequent, they just usually don't get nearly as out of hand.


i posted a link with a global study humans cause the most on a global basis....
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


So it is! Cheers to that and to the cert! I wonder what cocktail is most appropriate for toasting GIS. Hmmm.

And that's a gorgeous image, packed with info. Thanks for sharing it.


In my experience, beer is ALWAYS an appropriate choice for toasting among us geo types. Indeed, I brew my own and plan to crack open one of my bitters tonight to celebrate getting that application in the mail.

We're having another boring, er, I mean "quiet" weather day here in Colorado:

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF ALL THE ICE IN THE WORLD MELTED?...............Sea level would rise about 70 meters (230 feet) vertically and put large parts of the world underwater. For example Florida, the Netherlands and most of England would disappear. Only the tops of New York City’s skyscrapers would be visible. For this to happen the entire Antarctica ice cap would have to melt. Fortunately, the average temperature in most of Antarctica is around -37 °C (-35 °F) and shows no indication of rising above freezing any time soon. So the complete melt down scenario isn’t likely to happen.

The Greenland Ice Sheet on the other hand is melting. After the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it’s the second largest ice body in the world. A study shows that between 2003 and 2008 the Greenland Ice Sheet lost and average of 195 cubic kilometers of ice per year. That’s enough to cause an annual rise in global sea level of only a half a millimeter a year (5 cm over one century). What is troubling is that the rate of ice loss in the last couple years has increased dramatically. If you compare the first two years of the study to the last two there has been a 70% increase. Scientist don’t have enough data yet to determine if this increasing trend will continue.

What if the Greenland Ice Sheet were to completely melt? Sea level would rise by more than 7 m (23 ft) placing most coastal areas and large coastal cities like London and Los Angeles under water.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well I heard that the population of raintoads in the upper Amazon in June was actually really high this year, therefore we are heading towards an ice age...


Quoting pcola57:



Morning Pot..
What's the price of ju-ju beans this am.. :) ?


The price of ju-ju beans is directly and inversely proportionate to the state of the Climate.
Price is through the roof right now.
Good thing I've got 846 tons stashed away.

Some nice showers down here over the w/e and continuing.
Looking at a decent area of convection way out in the Atl and wondering if it will make it all the way here.
Scientists and economists Tuesday warned lawmakers of consequences Florida faces from climate change, including more destructive hurricanes and a rising sea level, but they also said the state could be a leader in reducing global warming.


Harold Wanless, chairman of the University of Miami's Department of Geological Sciences, predicted a 1.5 foot rise in sea level in 50 years and a three- to five-foot increase by the end of the century.


"Three feet's going to get messy," he said. "Four feet becomes extremely difficult to live in South Florida and five feet probably impossible."


At two feet, South Florida would still be livable, Wanless said


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,309177,00.html #ixzz2CDtieX2s
Quoting TomballTXPride:

How's the weather in Mattoon Charleston area? Good I'm assuming?


Been very windy, even had a bit of snow on the car Monday morning.
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Is that by number of events, or acres burned? I could see the number of fires, including smaller ones, having a lot more to do with direct human activity as a percentage than the acreage involved.

The Moonlight Fire from a few years back was human-accidental (from a campfire, as I recall), but it's the only one up around here I can recall that burned a really significant chunk in the last while. Some of those lightning storms this summer caused some havoc up around the northern inner coast range and then also over in Plumas Co, and the fires up around the border and into Klamath were _awful_ this year, in terms of acreage. I think all of that was lightning.

But we do have a lot of smaller grass fires and things that are often some idjit throwing a cigarette out the window, or parking the still-hot car in the tall dry grass; they're frequent, they just usually don't get nearly as out of hand.


All instances of forest fire. That 25% number provided by Northern Arizona University may be a little misleading, however, because they do no count accidental forest fires created by man in their count only arson.
Global warming has raised sea level about 8 inches since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Scientists expect 20 to 80 more inches this century, a lot depending upon how much more heat-trapping pollution humanity puts into the sky. This study makes mid-range projections of 1-8 inches by 2030, and 4-19 inches by 2050, depending upon location across the contiguous 48 states.

Rising seas dramatically increase the odds of damaging floods from storm surges. For over two-thirds of the locations analyzed (and for 85% of sites outside the Gulf of Mexico), past and future global warming more than doubles the estimated odds of “century” or worse floods occurring within the next 18 years — meaning floods so high they would historically be expected just once per century. For over half the locations analyzed, warming at least triples the odds of century-plus floods over the same period. And for two-thirds the locations, sea level rise from warming has already more than doubled the odds of such a flood even this year.

These increases are likely to cause an enormous amount of damage. At three quarters of the 55 sites analyzed in this report, century levels are higher than 4 feet above the high tide line. Yet across the country, nearly 5 million people live in 2.6 million homes at less than 4 feet above high tide. In 285 cities and towns, more than half the population lives on land below this line, potential victims of increasingly likely climate-induced coastal flooding.

About half of this exposed population, and eight of the top ten cities, are in the state of Florida. A preliminary independent analysis suggests about $30 billion in taxable property is vulnerable below the three-foot line in just three counties in southeast Florida, not including the county with the most homes at risk in the state and the nation, Miami-Dade. Small pockets or wide areas of vulnerability, however, exist in almost every other coastal state.

The population and homes exposed are just part of the story. Flooding to four feet would reach higher than a huge amount of dry land, covering some 3.0 million acres of roads, bridges, commercial buildings, military bases, agricultural lands, toxic waste dumps, schools, hospitals, and more. Coastal flooding made worse by global warming and rising seas promises to cause many billions of dollars of damage over the coming decades.

This report and its associated materials, based on two just-published peer-reviewed studies, is the first major national analysis of sea level rise in 20 years, and the first one ever to include:

Estimates of land, population and housing at risk;
• Evaluations of every low-lying coastal town, city, county and state in the contiguous U.S.;
• Localized timelines of storm surge threats integrating local sea level rise projections; and
• A freely available interactive map and data to download online (see SurgingSeas.org).

Summaries of these findings at a state-by-state level are available in fact sheets and the original peer-reviewed studies are available as well. All findings reflect best estimates from the research; actual values may vary.

This report focuses on new research and analysis, not recommendations; but it is clear from the findings here that in order to avoid the worst impacts, the United States must work to slow sea level rise by reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases, and work to diminish the remaining danger by preparing for higher seas in coastal cities and counties everywhere. SurgingSeas.org/responses/plans lists a selection of existing resources, plans and efforts to prepare, from local to national levels.
Quoting yoboi:
data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2000-047.pdf


Thanks for the link. And at least for the period it covers, gets right to my question above:

"Data collected by the National Interagency Fire Centre for the years 1991 to 1997 show
that lightning, debris burning and arson are consistently the three main causes of fires in
the US. For 1997 the following were the main causes of fires: debris burning 31%; arson
19%; lightning 11%; equipment 8%; children 5%; cigarettes 4%; campfires 3%; railroad
3%; and miscellaneous 15%. However, three quarters of the land burned - 76% - was due
to lightning."

Last aside for the moment is that I know a lot of folks in Forestry, and all of them have thought for ages that our fire management has really been in need of some rethought, especially in the west. I agree with them. I think that the longtime USFS policy of stopping _all_ natural fires really doesn't work well, and conservationists are really shifting in ideas about how best to manage this stuff ecologically, lots of work now going into controlled burns etc. Some of the biggest fires in the past have been in areas where smaller burns have been tamped out very quickly, leaving tons of dry material building up for larger fires later.

It gets complicated, all of it. But it's very linked to rainfall patterns here, too -- all of it interacting: climate changes, historical forest management, human development, so on.
Quoting pottery:


The price of ju-ju beans is directly and inversely proportionate to the state of the Climate.
Price is through the roof right now.
Good thing I've got 846 tons stashed away.

Some nice showers down here over the w/e and continuing.
Looking at a decent area of convection way out in the Atl and wondering if it will make it all the way here.


It may make it to ya..but barely..
(PS..I always forget to stock up my ju-ju bean supply..)

Hello and g'day Dr Jeff,
Well, I know you've anxiously awaited my input on this... ;)

"Sandy's huge size: freak of nature or climate change?"

My opinion, overwhelmingly - a freak of nature... as all the right sequences of meteorological events came together at the right time, unfortunately, wrong location with terrible consequences.

Keeping the focus in this post on how it got so large a system, I think the most important period you could have delved further into was after your point, "4) Interaction with a trough of low pressure over the Bahamas"... For the most remarkable evolution of Sandy occurred Fri Oct 26 / Sat Oct 27 as best available evidence via observations, satellite imagery and upper layer analysis from multiple sources supports that Sandy transitioned into a rare hybrid, an extraordinary Subtropical Cyclone of hurricane intensity and continued exhibiting such characteristics up to the point it transitioned to post-tropical prior to landfall... Plus, both subtropical and extratropical systems equally exhibit such vast, sprawling wind fields.

I'll add reference to the NHC's analysis as early as the Oct 26 Friday evening 11 PM NHC discussion reflects the enormous transformation underway, described as "SANDY IS SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF A HYBRID CYCLONE THIS EVENING. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A LARGE OCCLUDED FRONTAL LOW."... Furthermore, note the surface wind radii has dramatically expanded between the advisories on Oct 26 at 8 PM of "H force winds extend 35 miles / TS force winds extend 275 miles out" to 11 PM advisory of "H force winds extend 70 miles out / TS force wind extend 415 miles"...

We know Sandy grew ever larger, gaining notoriety as one of the largest wind fields of a tropical cyclone on record. However, I'd suggest this claim (along with MSLP and related records) deserves an asterisk and distinctly clarified, given by then it is well-established Sandy has a hybrid structure (and characteristics), thus more difficult to make a direct comparison to purely warm-core tropical cyclones under upper level ridging (or during conventional interaction with an approaching upper trough)... Additionally I might suggest, strengthening during the latter period was almost entirely driven by upper level dynamics / baroclinic forcing, with minor contribution from tropical warm core dynamics - i.e, despite some convection maintained around it's center and passage over warm Gulf Stream SST's, storm energy derived primarily via core convection / latent heat release had steadily declined... further evidenced by recon and surface observations that strongest winds were occurring over 100 miles from center, and not within what remained of the eyewall.

In a nutshell, a few salient points from my analysis concerning the evolving upper environment of this crucial period from Fri Oct 26 onward shows -

* Unusually deep, negative geopotential height anomalies in the upper level environment developed over a large portion of the region, replacing the hurricane's former anticyclone aloft...

* Transformation was enhanced by a developing subtropical jet streak that helped drive a Pacific front across the Gulf EWD well ahead of the CONUS polar trof, and forced the ULL / upper trof that had been over W Cuba to merge with Sandy... While I've yet to see anyone else mention this, I believe the role played by subtropical jet stream was an important element.

* In the process the typically tight / confined 400-250 mb upper level tropical vortex component atop Sandy was sheared off, then redeveloped as a larger vortex within a cyclonic gyre...

* Upper level troughing regime both encompassing and atop the storm continued to deepen - on Oct 26 0Z the minimum height 300 mb core atop Sandy was at 9560 meters, by Oct 28 12Z the 300 mb height had fallen another 160 meters to 9400...

* Upper air analysis further supports that Sandy is captured within a cyclonic gyre as the depicted surrounding height / pressure contour field's (isopleths) slope profile is distinctly concave...

* Analysis in this time frame suggests development of Winter season type phasing of the polar and subtropical jet streams with Sandy caught in the middle...

I'll conclude by suggesting the NHC consider revisiting the classification threshold of subtropical systems being limited to TS force intensity. For I believe in this rare instance, Sandy became an extraordinary one-of-a-kind Subtropical Cyclone Sandy at hurricane intensity for some 48-60 hrs as it most closely exhibited such characteristics within that period, then transitioned to post-tropical prior to landfall... That said, it will be interesting to see how the NHC handles this analysis in their post-season TCR on Sandy.

And, lol, this is the short text version of my analysis, sans the plethora of supporting upper layer analysis graphics, imagery and greater details describing the entire process...
;)
Quoting percylives:


As someone wrote recently global warming cannot be classified as a direct cause of Sandy but rather a systemic cause.

Global warming has so altered the entire climate system that storms like Sandy become more likely. This is the much more logical and supportable assumption.

As far as the CA "cap and trade" system being initiated why not use a direct fossil fuel carbon tax coupled with a fossil fuel dividend paid back to the entire population. Done nationwide this would use all the market forces to change behavior. People would seek to stay away from fossil fuels as much as possible to maximize their "earnings" by not paying as much tax while still earning the dividend. Let the other guy pay. If the tax was charged as the fossil fuel came out of the ground all industry, including the fossil fuel industry, would have to pay the tax. It would just be another cost passed on by industry to the final user of the fossil fuel. The cost might become part of an airline ticket or part of a bicycle but would be paid by the final consumer. The free market system with this small twist would do the job. A small percentage of the tax collected could be kept by the government to manage the system but the vast majority would be returned to the populace as an incentive to further cut fossil fuel use.

For if we don't solve this problem, we're wasting time on the rest of them.



Good luck convincing Americans that taxes need to be raised. Somehow American privileges became "rights". Now we have a "right" to everything. Who gave us these "rights" anyways? Is authority of being human on the Earth give us "rights" to abuse and destroy it? Or does authority over the Earth mean it's our job to take care of it?

Call me "unpatriotic", but I think our obsession with "rights" and self edification is becoming our downfall in this country.

People want it both ways here, they want the government to do everything and fix everything, but they freak about taxes and restriction...
TAMPA BAY if WATER LEVEL rose 9 FEET.......PIC WONT POST BUT IM SAFE...
Quoting washingtonian115:
I heard about the news of the U.S becoming oil independent and using our own resources.I hope so.So many people have lost their lives in trying to get this oil it's rediculous.That's one of the reasons we were fighting in the war.

522..sounds like people are having their freedom being taken away from them just like I said.Just look here in D.C..they are making us pay 5 cent for plastic bags.


People seem to miss a few important details. This isn't the first time tapping oil shale has come up, but tapping oil shale must become economically viable. With current echnology it really isn't, and the pollution factor from doing so is not something to be ignored. It's a pretty nasty process.

Even if a clean way to tap it becomes viable, at the current rate of increase of consumption if we had an efficient way to get at all the oil it wouldn't last more than a couple of decades.

This also ignores the impacts of burning millions of more tons of fossil fuels.

In short, there is really nothing new here. Tar sands and oil shales have been speculated about for quite some time. Now that our "dealers" are drying up, we're now searching under our couches for partially filled needles to feed out addiction.

This does not solve the problem.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Their are some things that science cannot explain.Some things are still un known in the universe and those unknown things well most of them should stay unknown for the better of man kind.At least that's what my professor told me over some 20 years ago.Somethings cannot be given a explaination.Some people who have nothing wrong with them say they might have seen a ghost but cannot scientifically explain it because no one will beleieve them..but they know what they saw and it will belong in the category of the unknown...


Nonsense. Science can't explain everything because science has yet to research everything. We know a lot, but the universe is a big place. Every time we come across something unknown, it is time to explore and study. Just because something is not understood NOW does not automatically imply invisible sky wizards or volcano crashing aliens are responsible.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


People seem to miss a few important details. This isn't the first time tapping oil shale has come up, but tapping oil shale must become economically viable. With current echnology it really isn't, and the pollution factor from doing so is not something to be ignored. It's a pretty nasty process.

Even if a clean way to tap it becomes viable, at the current rate of increase of consumption if we had an efficient way to get at all the oil it wouldn't last more than a couple of decades.

This also ignores the impacts of burning millions of more tons of fossil fuels.

In short, there is really nothing new here. Tar sands and oil shales have been speculated about for quite some time. Now that our "dealers" are drying up, we're now searching under our couches for partially filled needles to feed out addiction.

This does not solve the problem.



Well it would solve the problem IF people in power actually were willing to switch over to cleaner energy as it becomes more available. However, we all know that is not going to happen easily. I'm actually happy about seeing the U.S. heading towards energy independence because the nation will be less dependent on foreign energy. However, the upsetting part, is that I doubt the energy independence will have much lead into independent energy that is cleaner. It should only be short term, but sadly it probably won't, oil always wins in this country.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Good luck convincing Americans that taxes need to be raised. Somehow American privileges became "rights". Now we have a "right" to everything. Who gave us these "rights" anyways? Is authority of being human on the Earth give us "rights" to abuse and destroy it? Or does authority over the Earth mean it's our job to take care of it?

Call me "unpatriotic", but I think our obsession with "rights" and self edification is becoming our downfall in this country.

People want it both ways here, they want the government to do everything and fix everything, but they freak about taxes and restriction...



I totally agree. When I hear about soccer moms who need mega SUVs to tote around kids and equipment, or for that matter people around here who "need" Hummers for road conditions, I think "want, not need".
iterate or reiterate -- [in this particular usage] repeat for the purpose of emphasis

C'mon guys... within context, the intended meaning is extremely obvious, and the intended word only slightly less so*.
More than a typo and less than a spoonerism; it ain't as if we all ain't been guilty of a similar mental cross-firing at sometime or another.

* ie The word isn't used often enough in common conversation to be a part of "basic English" in the manner that 'repeat' is.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Nonsense. Science can't explain everything because science has yet to research everything. We know a lot, but the universe is a big place. Every time we come across something unknown, it is time to explore and study. Just because something is not understood NOW does not automatically imply invisible sky wizards or volcano crashing aliens are responsible.


Well I figured the volcano crashing aliens must have something to do with all this climate change, they must control the heat vents...
Quoting aspectre:
iterate or reiterate -- [in this particular usage] repeat for the purpose of emphasis

C'mon guys... within contest, the intended meaning is extremely obvious, and the intended word only slightly less so*.
More than a typo and less than a spoonerism, it ain't as if we all ain't been guilty of a similar mental cross-firing at sometime or another.

* ie The word isn't used often enough in common conversation to be considered a part of "basic English" in the manner that 'repeat' is.


As much as it did make me laugh in this particular instance, given the meaning involved, I do agree with your point. I can be a typo factory some days, and I definitely have had plenty of my own brain fart moments, too.

^"within contest" hee. No, seriously, I do that crap all the time, some days more than others. Spellcheck doesn't help when it is a word, either, and is simply the wrong word. I usually chuckle when it's an especially funny mistake and figure I got the drift regardless.
Quoting pcola57:


It may make it..but barely..
(PS..I always forget to stock up my ju-ju bean supply..)

If I remember correctly, your teeth must be healthy and in good order before chewing even a few pounds of Ju Ju Beans..I bit into one many years ago and could not chew it due to its adhesive properties...Freedent anyone?..:)
Quoting yoboi:


you lost me with letting the goverment to manage the funds....


Hahahaha!

Thing is, consumers need more choice of non-polluting things too...and cheap enough that not only people on good incomes can afford them. You can get all sorts of hybrid cars here, and you pay less road tax for them...but the cost of them or the maintenance of them is so much higher, it totally negates any savings on road tax. So if you don't have a lot of money, you're still stuck with the old options. Same for any kind of renewable energy at home. A lot of people could never afford to get off the grid, so stuck with it, even if the energy companies are ripping you a new one, need a lot fo capitol to buy and put in place enough to run off of. If oil company subsidies were instead given to consumers who went self sufficient for energy needs, that could help maybe?! And of course car companies need to offer viable and cheap alternatives to traditionally fueled cars. Not sure electric is any better though being many electric companies pollute just as much to create the electricity! It's a hard road to go down, and maybe why so many are against it, cause it's not the easy option?
.
Quoting hydrus:
If I remember correctly, your teeth must be healthy and in good order before chewing even a few pounds of Ju Ju Beans..I bit into one many years ago and could not chew it due to its adhesive properties...Freedent anyone?..:)


Yes they are a stubburn chew..but worth it.. :)
By the by..still waiting for a price on that surf board..j/k :)
Quoting MrMixon:


In my experience, beer is ALWAYS an appropriate choice for toasting among us geo types. Indeed, I brew my own and plan to crack open one of my bitters tonight to celebrate getting that application in the mail.

We're having another boring, er, I mean "quiet" weather day here in Colorado:


Ha, I never need more excuses to drink beer, but I'll take it! Cheers to the application. Cheers to the pretty, too.
Quoting pcola57:


It may make it..but barely..


Looking forward to some constant rains later this month and through December.
In fact, if it rained all dry season it would be fine with me.
Quoting aspectre:
iterate or reiterate -- [in this particular usage] repeat for the purpose of emphasis

C'mon guys... within contest, the intended meaning is extremely obvious, and the intended word only slightly less so*.
More than a typo and less than a spoonerism, it ain't as if we all ain't been guilty of a similar mental cross-firing at sometime or another.

* ie The word isn't used often enough in common conversation to be considered a part of "basic English" in the manner that 'repeat' is.
I meant no ill will. He can be obnoxious at times, especially when he calls everybody bud. I will not put grammatical quips in my post any longer.
616. DocNDswamp

The NHC definition of a Subtropical Storm technically does not have an upper limit.


Subtropical Storm:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) or more.


As opposed to a Tropical Storm, which does.

Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).
Quoting Grothar:
.


I see your point Gro.. :)
Quoting Jedkins01:



Well it would solve the problem IF people in power actually were willing to switch over to cleaner energy as it becomes more available. However, we all know that is not going to happen easily. I'm actually happy about seeing the U.S. heading towards energy independence because the nation will be less dependent on foreign energy. However, the upsetting part, is that I doubt the energy independence will have much lead into independent energy that is cleaner. It should only be short term, but sadly it probably won't, oil always wins in this country.


Well the silver lining (if you want to call it that) is that oil simply cannot win forever because our supply is limited...

Quoting pcola57:


I see your point Gro.. :)


I just wanted to elucidate everything for you. :)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
In a word, "Proof." No proof of creation or a higher being. No proof global warming caused Sandy to be as big, destructive or unusual as she was.


Only idiots claim that Sandy was "caused" caused by AGW. No legitimate climate scientist would make such a statement. AGW doesn't cause weather, it influences weather.

Don't kid yourself about science. Science did not convince humans to evacuate Staten Island. Plaquemines for Isaac. Bolivar for Ike.


Science is not about convincing anyone of anything. Convincing requires bias, and science is supposed to be impartial. Science will say, "The likely storm surge will be 12 feet". It is up to the individual ultimately whether or not they will take action on the science. You either listen to it, or you don't. But you better be damn well prepared for the consequences if you don't.

For solving any problem that involves the ever present human factor, a game plan with a view of "Science vs Mythology," will not work.


You're right, because that quickly boils down into faith vs. facts at which point any argument becomes useless. Blind faith will trump facts, as can be seen by those people who refuse to evacuate because "god will protect them".

Faith is fine. But when faith flies in the face of reality, that's when problems begin.


After all, we do have Colleges of Arts and Sciences. If humans are going to fight their way out of this paper bag, they'll need all the brainpower they can get, from both sides of their brains.


You can be creative without bringing in mythology/faith, nor does being a godlss heathen automatically make you Vulcan.



Also, regarding the conversation in comments last night. Whatever words or actions, there are as many different interpretations possible as there are humans on earth. Another example of, let me call it "Humanity," the reason pure science will not work for changing the human condition.


No, but science and facts SHOULD be able to convince people that certain courses of action are better than ideological onces. Unfortunately, as a species we will probably need a few thousand years more of evolution before that happens.
Quoting hydrus:
I meant no ill will. He can be obnoxious at times, especially when he calls everybody bud. I will not put grammatical quips in my post any longer.


It really did make me laugh, too. I, for one, deserve and appreciate a good-natured ribbing when I do similar. But, you know, brains -- they are weird things, sometimes.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well I figured the volcano crashing aliens must have something to do with all this climate change, they must control the heat vents...


I agree.....a little Mayan told me.

12.21.12 is when they open them up for real :D
Quoting pcola57:


Yes they are a stubburn chew..but worth it.. :)
By the by..still waiting for a price on that surf board..j/k :)
I would like to get $400 for it. It will only go up in value as it is collectable and in superb condition.:). The pattern seems to keep the lows that form very far south than a typical Nor,Easter.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I heard about the news of the U.S becoming oil independent and using our own resources.I hope so.So many people have lost their lives in trying to get this oil it's rediculous.That's one of the reasons we were fighting in the war.

522..sounds like people are having their freedom being taken away from them just like I said.Just look here in D.C..they are making us pay 5 cent for plastic bags.


They do that here in Wales too. Though, nip over to England and don't have to LOL Reckon they'll implement it at some point too. I've used reusable bags for a long time anyway, especially when I didn't drive...nothing worse on your hands than the handles of heavy plastic grocery bags! So have used big fabric ones for ages.
Quoting Grothar:
.
Great post.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Well it would solve the problem IF people in power actually were willing to switch over to cleaner energy as it becomes more available. However, we all know that is not going to happen easily. I'm actually happy about seeing the U.S. heading towards energy independence because the nation will be less dependent on foreign energy. However, the upsetting part, is that I doubt the energy independence will have much lead into independent energy that is cleaner. It should only be short term, but sadly it probably won't, oil always wins in this country.



Not just in this country....
President Obama is holding a news conference right now on climate change and it's realities.

And other things...
Quoting hydrus:
Great post.


Above average in providing useful info, I'd say. :D
re: 636. nrtiwlnvragn

Once again, thanks nrt!
There's been much refining how subtropical systems are classed, seems I recalled there was a limitation, perhaps not... LOL, I also remember a period when small-scale subtropical features were called neutercanes.

Again, will be curious how NHC's TCR analyzes Sandy in the period described, regardless of my own determinations.
;)

Quoting Slamguitar:
President Obama is holding a news conference right now on climate change and it's realities.


I just saw him on TV at the conference as a reporter asked a question about Sandy if it was related to Global Warning and he said "Climate Change is real".
Quoting pcola57:


I see your point Gro.. :)


So whatever I am saying is pointless,,,, =)

This looks interesting,,,it probably even has a point
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Above average in providing useful info, I'd say. :D
He reminds me of Lincoln.....He can cram volumes into just a few words...Or dots..
Quoting DocNDswamp:
re: 636. nrtiwlnvragn

Once again, thanks nrt!
There's been much refining how subtropical systems are classed, seems I recalled there was a limitation, perhaps not... LOL, I also remember a period when small-scale subtropical features were called neutercanes.

Again, will be curious how NHC's TCR analyzes Sandy in the period described, regardless of my own determinations.
;)




Beven had a presentation this year, Cyclone Type Analysis and Forecasting: A Need to Re-visit the Issue. Also, NHC did change the definition (by expanding) of a Subtropical cyclone.


Yes, the TCR for Sandy is much anticipated.
Quoting hydrus:
He reminds me of Lincoln.....He can cram volumes into just a few words...Or dots..



Grothar is better than Lincoln....he gives his two cents...
Lincoln is ..... just one.

Do you see my points? :)


btw this comment is still pointless...:P
Climate Change Denier Likely to Lead Congressional Science Committee
By Christine Gorman November 14, 2012


September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th-century average Credit: NOAA



Republican Party leaders in the House of Representatives will decide whether Representatives Lamar Smith of Texas, James Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin or Dana Rohrabacher of California will succeed Ralph Hall, also of Texas, as chair of the House Committee. Because of term limits, Hall cannot continue heading the group, which has jurisdiction over energy research, NASA, the National Weather Service and the National Science Foundation, among other things.


http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2012/11/14/climate-change-denier-likely-to-lead-co ngressional-science-committee/
I just do not understand people today, now IF you studied the earths climate history then you would know, the earths climate is always changing, yes slowly but changing always from hot to cold-cold to hot..always changing...so to say climate change IS real..Is a true statement....Just read a scientific journal on florida..florida since its beginning has been totally under water 4..yes FOUR times..which means at 4 points in florida and the earths history, the ice did indeed melt and the water table rose up..and it will probably happen once again in the earths history..........to say climate change is NOT real, just does not make any sense to me..its ALWAYS changing..period
Evidence indicates a trend toward global warming. If the world�s temperature warms, this may mean that the sea level will rise along most of the world�s coastlines. Florida has an extended coastline and many major cities are near the coast. Any rise in sea level poses a threat.
Since 1970, the U.S. Southeast has warmed about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. As warming continues, Florida is expected to be one of the hardest hit in the region. For unabated emissions, the number of 90 degree Fahrenheit days is expected to rise significantly. Throughout much of Florida, there were approximately 60 such hot days per year in the 1960s and 70s; by the end of the century, that is expected to climb to approximately 165 hot days.....now my note..just imagine..a summer..lasting 165 days..geez
Quoting LargoFl:
I just do not understand people today, now IF you studied the earths climate history then you would know, the earths climate is always changing, yes slowly but changing always from hot to cold-cold to hot..always changing...so to say climate change IS real..Is a true statement....Just read a scientific journal on florida..florida since its beginning has been totally under water 4..yes FOUR times..which means at 4 points in florida and the earths history, the ice did indeed melt and the water table rose up..and it will probably happen once again in the earths history..........to say climate change is NOT real, just does not make any sense to me..its ALWAYS changing..period


Agreed on the literal meaning, I think the way people use it is more as "global warming based at least to a large degree on humans burning fossil fuels." Which is a different point (and still real, though plenty of folks here disagree, I'm sure.)

Also, I think that humanity is... well, we've built this whole "human civilization" thingy during a time of real relative stability, climate wise, at least for the most part. I don't think that many people alive today even understand the scale of havoc from the Dust Bowl, much less the scale of havoc we can see from a shifting global climate. It's sort of a continuation of the "it can't happen here, and it won't be so bad" tendency, something that I think really is going to bite us as we go forward. Sometimes, it really _is_ that bad, and we're going to have to contend with that, but most of this country has never gone through a genuine catastrophe, really, and so it's, like, the stuff of a few overwrought disaster movies.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world -- at least much of it -- sure does know about how bad it can get, but we haven't been listening.

I just hope we start to really see it in dribs and drabs, and do our best by each other and future humans, _before_ the suffering gets vastly, vastly worse (and FU beyond all repair, moreso as we go).
Only weak messages need strong messengers.
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Ha! It's true. If moms didn't develop this amazing immunity, we'd probably none of us survive infancy, because man, babies... they have some ick. Good thing they're cute. ;)

For me, it's been horses, actually -- muck enough stalls, take care of enough very bloody small wounds, get bucked off into a fresh pile... you get over it. It all washes off.



We raise show rabbits, so we get just a fraction of the poo as we would from horses. Enough to power a small home, maybe :D
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Agreed on the literal meaning, I think the way people use it is more as "global warming based at least to a large degree on humans burning fossil fuels." Which is a different point (and still real, though plenty of folks here disagree, I'm sure.)

Also, I think that humanity is... well, we've built this whole "human civilization" thingy during a time of real relative stability, climate wise, at least for the most part. I don't think that many people alive today even understand the scale of havoc from the Dust Bowl, much less the scale of havoc we can see from a shifting global climate. It's sort of a continuation of the "it can't happen here, and it won't be so bad" tendency, something that I think really is going to bite us as we go forward. Sometimes, it really _is_ that bad, and we're going to have to contend with that, but most of this country has never gone through a genuine catastrophe, really, and so it's, like, the stuff of a few overwrought disaster movies.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world -- at least much of it -- sure does know about how bad it can get, but we haven't been listening.

I just hope we start to really see it in dribs and drabs, and do our best by each other and future humans, _before_ the suffering gets vastly, vastly worse (and FU beyond all repair, moreso as we go).
agreed..I can imagine..all this will take thousands of years..the dire effects I mean.but sometime in the future, those folks will be paying dearly, for what we today have done..yes I kinda agree with that..surely most everyone does
Rising sea level is one of the most threatening impacts of climate change in Florida. Satellite observations show that global sea level rise is accelerating. By 2100, sea level rise could well exceed 3 feet if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated and a 6 foot rise is possible. The higher end of the estimates could be realized if the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets break up more rapidly. This threatens to submerge Florida's coastal communities and economies since roughly 9 percent of the state is within 5 feet of the existing sea level. Rising sea level also threatens the beaches, wetlands, and mangrove forests that surround the state. Some of the small islands of the Florida Keys could completely disappear due to rising sea levels. Inland ecosystems will also suffer as salt water intrusion into the Everglades or up rivers impacts freshwater plants and animals. Critical habitats for fish and birds, as well as endangered species like the key deer, American alligator and Florida panther, will be severely reduced and could disappear altogether.
The squeaky wheel gets the grease.
Broward county florida prepares for rising sea levels............wont post the whole article but here is an excerpt.............To the dismay of developers, the plan would impact future building plans, energy use, and green living to prepare for what scientists widely believe to be rising sea levels. By 2060, the commission said, residents in coastal communities could be swimming at their door steps.
Quoting LargoFl:
agreed..I can imagine..all this will take thousands of years..the dire effects I mean.but sometime in the future, those folks will be paying dearly, for what we today have done..yes I kinda agree with that..surely most everyone does


I worry immensely about the speed of change we're seeing. And that makes it -- I mean, the moral issue here kind of is the "doing our best by each other," to me. The science and fact issue is about how fast we're looking at this -- how much time do we have to change course, to the degree that this is about our behavior now?

I don't think we have much time left, and while I don't have kids, I worry about the kids I know -- heck, at this point, I worry about us adults' old age. But the kids I know -- I don't want to hand them a mess they can't possibly do anything about except suffer with it, to whatever degree that I can do anything at all.

On all sides of _honest_ debate here about what's going on and what to do about it, I think people are coming from a strong moral base. I think those of us trying to actually discuss it openly and honestly would all do well to remember that.

(The set of folks who refuse to be open to any ideas that conflict with what they've already decided is "true" -- that's a waste of time. I'm talking about people who think and care and are actively wrapping our heads around it all, regardless of what "sides" we're on at a given moment.)
all around the coastal USA..there are reports from scientists just like this one..................
Sea levels along the California coast are expected to rise up to 1 foot in 20 years, 2 feet by 2050 and as much as 5 1/2 feet by the end of the century, climbing slightly more than the global average and increasing the risk of flooding and storm damage, a new study says.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Climate Change Denier Likely to Lead Congressional Science Committee
By Christine Gorman November 14, 2012

Republican Party leaders in the House of Representatives will decide whether Representatives Lamar Smith of Texas, James Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin or Dana Rohrabacher of California will succeed Ralph Hall, also of Texas, as chair of the House Committee. Because of term limits, Hall cannot continue heading the group, which has jurisdiction over energy research, NASA, the National Weather Service and the National Science Foundation, among other things.


http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2012/11/14/climate-change-denier-likely-to-lead-co ngressional-science-committee/
How utterly depressing.

Denying climate change is definitely bad enough, but far worse is the wholesale denial of all things scientific by some (nearly every one members of one particular political party; in fact, it's become a de facto plank in that party's platform). And while these knuckle-dragging buffoons work on sending America back to the horse-and-buggy days, we fall further and further behind the rest of the industrialized world in terms of technology and education.

It's sickening. Members of the science ignorati such as Smith, Sensenbrenner, and Rohrabacher are an embarrassment to every thinking person who's ever lived.
Quoting LargoFl:
Rising sea level is one of the most threatening impacts of climate change in Florida. Satellite observations show that global sea level rise is accelerating. By 2100, sea level rise could well exceed 3 feet if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated and a 6 foot rise is possible. The higher end of the estimates could be realized if the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets break up more rapidly. This threatens to submerge Florida's coastal communities and economies since roughly 9 percent of the state is within 5 feet of the existing sea level. Rising sea level also threatens the beaches, wetlands, and mangrove forests that surround the state. Some of the small islands of the Florida Keys could completely disappear due to rising sea levels. Inland ecosystems will also suffer as salt water intrusion into the Everglades or up rivers impacts freshwater plants and animals. Critical habitats for fish and birds, as well as endangered species like the key deer, American alligator and Florida panther, will be severely reduced and could disappear altogether.


Areas shaded in red would equate to a 1 meter rise in sea level.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Areas shaded in red would equate to a 1 meter rise in sea level.

yes florida will be hit hard, especially south florida...ages ago when i bought my house here..ifound out My house is 40 feet above sea level..so i bought if..figuring on storm suge..NOT sea level rise..back then it wasnt even a concern..but now..geez..its a real threat
and this..from Texas.............If anything, scientists are revising upwards their estimates of sea-level rise. Whereas the 2007 assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated between .18 and .59 meters (7 inches to 2 feet) of sea-level rise by 2100, recently published studies are now predicting 1 meter, or about three feet. That’s largely due to new research into the dynamics of ice-sheet flow, which was excluded from the IPCC report.

Last week, a team led by two scientists at the University of Arizona published research that for the first time looked at how rising seas are likely to impact every major coastal city (above 50,000 in population) in the lower 48 states. The headline from the report is that almost 10 percent of the land within 180 U.S. coastal cities could be swamped by century’s end. But that’s an average across the 48 states. Drill down a bit and the results are even more sobering for Texans.

If the experts are right – and oceans do rise by 1 meter or more – some Texas cities could eventually be swamped by the Gulf. At greatest risk are Port Arthur, Galveston and Corpus Christi, according to the University of Arizona paper.

Almost 50 percent of Port Arthur and Galveston are less than 1 meter, or three feet, above sea level. Roughly 90 percent of those cities’ land area is below two meters, or six feet. Corpus Christi, the third most vulnerable Texas city, has about 15 percent of its area below 1 meter. While other Texas cities fare much better, they still contain non-trivial pieces of land at risk.
Quoting goosegirl1:



We raise show rabbits, so we get just a fraction of the poo as we would from horses. Enough to power a small home, maybe :D


Well, you know, rabbit metabolism... ;)

I don't have horses now, alas -- pricey beasts, I trained them for years but now it's beyond what I can do until I find a way back to living in the country. But I suspect that two humans, three cats, two (frighteningly prolific, in this regard) dogs, and three chickens could at least power _something_. Though in truth, the composted chicken poop is nice fertilizer, too.

Honestly, if city permitting would allow, I'd be putting in a good composting toilet as it is, frankly. So the idea of pulling the energy out as electricity makes me happy. I'll have to keep an eye on that stuff, it's a great idea if it can be engineered well.
674. vis0
First thank you to Dr. Masters , weatherunderground staff, weather specialist & wxgeeks, as its such a joy to read your comments, even if i can't understand the scientific jargon ...i'm learning as i read.

Second thank you to volunteers and those posting REAL info and observations to help warn others of possible dangers.

Following not a known science(S) but on a science i call Galacsics. Its not directly on the physics of Sandy but if i'm correct as i state the ml-d assisted TS Sandy to become stronger as it neared or was over land (ml-d effect i explain in blogs) & influenced Sandy to become 2 times "stronger" that expected just 4-5 days before U.S. landfall as i posted on the blog to watch for 2 times stronger mb, when 960 was predicted.  2 times stronger for Sandy's size was ~ 940mb (like having a tight Hurricane Cat 2 go to a cat 4) and 36 hrs later that's what happened.

As to Sandy and other storms/weather extremes i still wish what i call an "ml-d" (please see my blog for more info on the weather influencing device i call "ml-d") could be tested by people of this (my) country (U.S. of A.). i've used the ml-d since ~1976 till December 2009 never for more than 2 continuous months and no more than ~6 months in TOTAL within a calendar year. Since January 2010 the ml-d is ON continuously with the only 3 variances.

 1 That its been moved. Was in Puerto Rico all of Jan 2010 ( rainfall records broken in Puerto Rico as the only top 20 rainfall within a calendar month where the precipitation was NOT from Tropical storm(s). Back in NYC from February 2010 till late April 2010. Back to Puerto Rico  from May 2010 through the 1st week of July 2010, again rainfall records broken by ~3 times and both times HIGHS east of Puerto Rico feed hot drier air towards EurAsia which i think went through a HEAT pattern. Ml-d went back to NYC (27th & 2nd Ave). For more see its Area Of Influence (AOI) at ipernity search for "ml-d" "senor equis",  then NYC or Puerto Rico.
 
 2. at times the ml-d is off and i detail when, within blogs i title "ml-d diary".
 
 3. Finally i state the ml-d influences weather via 5 "parental" or  "main"  properties that influence weather.
 lighting (charge),
 wind (horizontal motion/Coriolis),
 precip (moisture content) (air moisture content),
 cooling/warming (temperature differences),
 up/dwn flow (vertical motion)
 [2 of these i might describe differently on other blogs].
 
 Since January 2010 i've only had the ml-d influencing 3 of the 5 and only changed 1 of those 3 during MID-LATE 2010 (SPECIFIC DATE IS IN MY BLOG).
 
 As time passes, i am more certain that i will have to take the ml-d to another country to have it tested. Remember the ml-d is opening vortexes on the opposing side as to atomic energy as if acting like all crystal energy flow combinations at once. It is (will be) how one will one day time-twist through worm holes (natural/man made) to move through physical space  BUT as if one was only a "light form" wee the light form moves AHEAD of the physical entity (opposite of the physical dimension) .   It works through the sieves of (8 surrounding) absolute zero, though as to on a complex planet such as Earth, in it being carbon centered the energy it (ml-d) taps into to open PHYSICALLY unseen energies flows is that "static" (undiscovered deep underground micro lightning) which has a "footprint" of silicone. There just repeating more of what most think is nutty, as nutty as the airplane was when described to people even scientist of the 1800s or as nutty as when the PICTURE BOX aka TV was explained to the public before it was mass produced. i just hope this device can be reproduced by the next generation as it will be used to create wind Streams (MAN MADE micro jet streams nearer to ground level) to turn wind turbines and eventually create 60%, yes 60% of the worlds energy needs (today 2012 Hydro is most at ~15%), i bet China will figure this out before anyone else in the western culture. Sending Dr. Master the umbrella idea, hope wxu can use it to generate funds for charities. i'm taking a break from posting (post in ~ 12 languages only know ~3, my eyes are suffering from all this writing, but the ml-d is still ON i just hope it doesn't trigger a 4.0 - 5 .0 earthquake. How/Why please read my blog for info on ml-d triggering earthquakes ,peace
It has been theorized that approximately 75,000 years ago, the human population was reduced to about 10,000 and probably an even less breeding population. They attribute this due to a cataclysmic climate change due to the Toba eruption in Indonesia.

In the past few years, geneticists have been able to confirm this sudden drop in the human population through the still ongoing "mapping" of our genetic variations. The genetic variation between a Swede and an Australian aborigine is closer than between the genetic variation in a close band of chimpanzees.

Through most of earth's history, climate variations have been enormous. In the past 80,000 years, we have lived in a relatively warm period with incidences of glaciation. It has allowed an enormous explosion of the human population.

Yes, the earth will most likely survive an adapt to even the most cataclysmic events. Many life forms will not.

I have been reading the blog for a number of days and not posting anything. I choose not to debate on most subjects for personal reasons. However, what I have inferred from most of the blogs, is that it is not the message we do not like, but the messengers.

Extreme views on either side do not help a debate and aid even less in deriving a solution.
from boston............
In Boston, officials have begun mapping low-lying areas and critical systems that are most likely to be inundated. The maps show that if sea levels rise just 2.5 feet, it could take little more than a Nor’easter to put much of the Back Bay, East Boston, South Boston, Chelsea, Cambridge, and elsewhere underwater, including much of Logan International Airport and the financial district.
Quoting Grothar:
It has been theorized that approximately 75,000 years ago, the human population was reduced to about 10,000 and probably an even less breeding population. They attribute this due to a cataclysmic climate change due to the Toba eruption in Indonesia.

In the past few years, geneticists have been able to confirm this sudden drop in the human population through the still ongoing "mapping" of our genetic variations. The genetic variation between a Swede and an Australian aborigine is closer than between the genetic variation in a close band of chimpanzees.

Through most of earth's history, climate variations have been enormous. In the past 80,000 years, we have lived in a relatively warm period with incidences of glaciation. It has allowed an enormous explosion of the human population.

Yes, the earth will most likely survive an adapt to even the most cataclysmic events. Many life forms will not.

I have been reading the blog for a number of days and not posting anything. I choose not to debate on most subjects for personal reasons. However, what I have inferred from most of the blogs, is that it is not the message we do not like, but the messengers.

Extreme views on either side do not help a debate and aid even less in deriving a solution.
Thanks Gro..from what im reading lately most scientists now agree the sea levels are going to rise, I have been going from coastal city to coastal city all along the USA coastline, and the story is the same..the leaders in each coastal city is now preparing for a 2 to 6 foot rise in the sea levels..its real now, no arguing anymore..its already happening and we along the coastlines need to prepare for it
Quoting Neapolitan:
How utterly depressing.

Denying climate change is definitely bad enough, but far worse is the wholesale denial of all things scientific by some (nearly every one members of one particular political party; in fact, it's become a de facto plank in that party's platform). And while these knuckle-dragging buffoons work on sending America back to the horse-and-buggy days, we fall further and further behind the rest of the industrialized world in terms of technology and education.

It's sickening. Members of the science ignorati such as Smith, Sensenbrenner, and Rohrabacher are an embarrassment to every thinking person who's ever lived.


I keep telling you but not everyone is drinking the koolaid on the doom and gloom that alarmists are shouting from the mountain tops..Im a democrat and I dont believe in climate change..these events have happened in the past..show me 95 degrees next month in NY and hey, I might say you're right to be somewhat alarm..but to predict how the climate will be in 50 years when we can't even predict a 3 day accurate forecast just proves my point..Climate change is NOT a priority in my life as I see in some of the posts here..Having a job, putting food on my table, ensuring my 401K doesn't bottom out are just priority right now..and please tell me if off all of you are advocates for saving earth, then why are you on your computers all day burning fossil fuels which you claim is contributing to global warming? isn't that hypocritical to your cause? thats like a vegan who owns a meat packing plant..
Quoting LargoFl:
Broward county florida prepares for rising sea levels............wont post the whole article but here is an excerpt.............To the dismay of developers, the plan would impact future building plans, energy use, and green living to prepare for what scientists widely believe to be rising sea levels. By 2060, the commission said, residents in coastal communities could be swimming at their door steps.


I guess we only have about 50 years to live in this house and then we will have to move. I was hoping we could stay here another 60 or 80 years, but it doesn't look good. I hate moving every 50 years.
Quoting Neapolitan:
How utterly depressing.

Denying climate change is definitely bad enough, but far worse is the wholesale denial of all things scientific by some (nearly every one members of one particular political party; in fact, it's become a de facto plank in that party's platform). And while these knuckle-dragging buffoons work on sending America back to the horse-and-buggy days, we fall further and further behind the rest of the industrialized world in terms of technology and education.

It's sickening. Members of the science ignorati such as Smith, Sensenbrenner, and Rohrabacher are an embarrassment to every thinking person who's ever lived.


You really like putting people down.
Quoting Grothar:
Only weak messages need strong messengers.
Quoting Grothar:
It has been theorized that approximately 75,000 years ago, the human population was reduced to about 10,000 and probably an even less breeding population. They attribute this due to a cataclysmic climate change due to the Toba eruption in Indonesia.

In the past few years, geneticists have been able to confirm this sudden drop in the human population through the still ongoing "mapping" of our genetic variations. The genetic variation between a Swede and an Australian aborigine is closer than between the genetic variation in a close band of chimpanzees.

Through most of earth's history, climate variations have been enormous. In the past 80,000 years, we have lived in a relatively warm period with incidences of glaciation. It has allowed an enormous explosion of the human population.

Yes, the earth will most likely survive an adapt to even the most cataclysmic events. Many life forms will not.

I have been reading the blog for a number of days and not posting anything. I choose not to debate on most subjects for personal reasons. However, what I have inferred from most of the blogs, is that it is not the message we do not like, but the messengers.

Extreme views on either side do not help a debate and aid even less in deriving a solution.


So agreed on so much of this. All I would add is that I think it's the assumptions and the caricatures, to some degree -- we put each other in boxes and hate those boxes.

I have very strong opinions, clearly, and I'm never afraid to argue them -- I mean, some of the just objective stuff here is just, like, true.

I also don't assume that everybody who disagrees with my points is a jerk or a dupe. Some are, but then, some who _agree_ with my opinions undoubtedly are, too. That's not the point.

At some point, it's hearing each other and thinking and seeing where our disagreements lie -- without trying to just "win" -- that generally is a possible source of human strength, and can save our collective behinds in hard situations. I hope we can get good at it on the scale we need someday, and soon.
Quoting Grothar:


I guess we only have about 50 years to live in this house and then we will have to move. I was hoping we could stay here another 60 or 80 years, but it doesn't look good. I hate moving every 50 years.
yeah i hope you'll be ok,was talking to a lady i know down on indian rocks beach here..and she alrady is worried without me saying anything so im assuming coastal residents already know whats coming..good luck to all who will be affected by this..millions and millions of people whew..iowa is going to get real crowded someday huh
see..every coastal state..the message is the same.........State legislators last summer ignored research that shows sea-level rise will accelerate its creep up North Carolina’s coastline this century.

This week, waves of science will say they were wrong.

Sea level was a hot topic – and North Carolina lawmakers a butt of jokes – as the Geological Society of America began its annual meeting in Charlotte on Sunday, days after Hurricane Sandy swamped New York and New Jersey.

Some researchers said the 39-inch rise a state science panel expects by year 2100 may be far too low. Other new studies say North Carolina is part of an Atlantic coast “hot spot” where seas are rising far faster than in the rest of the world.

The scientists also say there’s a lot they can’t predict.

“We’re going to have a meter of sea-level rise. I can’t tell you if it will be 50 years or 100 years from now,” said panel member Rob Young, who leads the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines at Western Carolina University.

“We’re going to get to that meter whether it’s on a straight line into the future or in that dramatic uptick that the vast majority of scientists believe is happening.”

Atlantic coast sea level rise

Sea level along 600 miles of the Atlantic coast from Cape Hatteras to north of Boston has risen three to four times faster since 1990 than it has globally, says a U.S. Geological Survey study published in June. That alone is enough to add 8 to 11 inches to the global average this century.

“It turns out it’s the only area of acceleration presently going on along the coast of the United States,” said oceanographer Asbury Sallenger, who lead the project. The rate of rise farther south, in places like Charleston and Savannah, shows no such trend, he said.

Sea level varies widely depending on where it is measured, due to differences in land characteristics and ocean currents, water temperatures and salinity.

Sallenger traces the likely cause of the hot spot to a region of frigid Atlantic water south of Greenland that is warming, altering the flow of currents and the tilt of the sea surface.

Other studies support those findings. Sea level on the Atlantic coast has risen since the late 19th century at the fastest pace in 2,000 years, the University of Pennsylvania’s Benjamin Horton, Yale scientist Andrew Kemp and colleagues showed. East Carolina University geologist Stanley Riggs’ team found a similar trend in northeastern North Carolina.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its latest report, predicted in 2007 that global sea level would rise no more than about 20 inches this century. But that didn’t include the unpredictable impact of massive, fast-melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

Melting ice is “absolutely the key factor,” said Richard Peltier, director of the University of Toronto’s Centre for Global Change Science.

“I think we would all agree, even the most conservative IPCC persons, that the IPCC number is very conservative,” Peltier said, with some projections of about 59 inches. “It’s got nowhere to go but up, but by how much is a bit of a mug’s game.”

Legislators decide to delay

The science panel’s recommendation that North Carolina plan for much higher seas by year 2100 prompted a tsunami-size backlash in coastal counties.

An economic development group insisted the science was flawed, and said it would halt development on wide swaths of land already barely above sea level.

N.C. legislators first proposed a law that would allow calculations of future sea-level rise to be based only on past trends, not on scientific evidence of accelerated rise.

The final version, ratified in August, delays estimating future rates until 2016. It instructs the science panel to reassess whether sea level could fall or the rate of rise slow as well as speed up. It orders the state Coastal Resources Commission to consider “historical calculations” along with computer models of the future.

The 22,000-member geological society’s position is that human activities account for most of the global warming since the mid-1990s. On Sunday it honored author and climate activist Bill McKibben with its President’s Medal.

The rate of global sea level rise has increased since the early 1990s to about 3 millimeters a year, sharply higher than the 20th-century average of 1.7mm.

“What that tells you is that nothing is going to get better in the coast in the future, even without a (further) acceleration,” said Young, the Western Carolina University geologist.

Some scientists aren’t sure that trend will last.

Satellite data shows that the rate of acceleration is slowing, says University of Florida researcher Robert Dean. Studies show historic up-and-down cycles that fit such patterns.

“The question is whether the satellites are showing an oscillation or a new trend,” he said.

‘Sets the stage for a little Nor’easter’

Hurricane Sandy stayed well off the North Carolilna coast but still overwashed N.C. 12, which runs through the Outer Banks, in three places. Winter storms could turn those sites into new inlets, said Stan Riggs of East Carolina University.

Sandy “sets the stage for a little Nor’easter to just pummel the hell out of the Outer Banks this winter,” Riggs said. New openings in the islands could quickly expose the protected sounds behind them to much higher tides, threatening the communities on their shores.

Rising seas will only make storm surges higher, scientists say.

“The most obvious aspect of climate change to Hurricane Sandy is not necessarily that storms have gotten bigger or more intense,” said Sallenger, the Geological Survey scientist. “It’s that the seas are definitely rising – we can see it and measure it.”

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/11/04/364402 7/nc-coast-a-hot-spot-of-rising.html#storylink=cpy
Quoting pottery:


The price of ju-ju beans is directly and inversely proportionate to the state of the Climate.
Price is through the roof right now.
Good thing I've got 846 tons stashed away.

Some nice showers down here over the w/e and continuing.
Looking at a decent area of convection way out in the Atl and wondering if it will make it all the way here.


I don't have any ju-ju beans, I guess I better get on top of that...
Quoting Grothar:


I guess we only have about 50 years to live in this house and then we will have to move. I was hoping we could stay here another 60 or 80 years, but it doesn't look good. I hate moving every 50 years.


And that will be your 5th or 6th move? LOL
Quoting Jedkins01:


I don't have any ju-ju beans, I guess I better get on top of that...


Just watch out for your fillings, ha. Unless you're building up a reserve for future speculative trade, of course. In which case you should invest in dentistry, too.
If oceans continue to rise in the coming decades, the areas most likely to be under water are Pinellas, Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Lee counties, said scientists who gathered Thursday for Florida Atlantic University's Sea Level Rise Summit.

Palm Beach County benefits from elevations that are about 2 feet higher than those lower-lying areas, said Jayantha Obeysekera, director of modeling at the South Florida Water Management District.

"Palm Beach is a little higher," Obeysekera said.

South Florida stands to sustain significant damage from rising sea levels, said Ben Strauss, chief operating officer of Climate Central in Princeton, N.J. Florida is home to nearly half of the 4.9 million Americans who live at elevations less than 4 feet above the high-tide line, he said.

Among the cities with the most residents living at those elevations: Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Cape Coral, Miami Beach, Plantation, Miramar and Fort Lauderdale.

Many of those cities are well inland, reflecting the reality that properties near the Everglades can face a higher risk of flooding than oceanfront homes.

"The mental image most people have is mansions on the beach," Strauss said.

There was no debate among scientists that seas are rising. Gary Mitchum, an oceanographer at the University of South Florida, said sea levels rose less than 2 millimeters a year from 1950 to 1992. Since 1992, he said, seas have been rising more than 3 millimeters a year.

Scientists acknowledge that they can't predict how quickly sea levels will continue to rise, but they agreed that it will be decades before South Florida sees catastrophic flooding.

The Sea Level Rise Summit continues today.
Geez..the more i read..the better IOWA sounds lol......Almost every resident in the Tampa Bay area lives very close to sea level. This fact puts Florida and the Tampa Bay area at the front lines of the fight against global warming, whether we want to be there or not. It is unnerving to look at a United States map of rise in sea level predictions, and notice that your home is in the area that is going to see the first and worst of the problem. In short, scientists predict that Pinellas county and the rest of the Tampa Bay area will be under water in less than 100 years.



The Florida coastline after a sea level rise of 6 meters.
Harold Wanless, chairman of the University of Miami's Department of Geological Sciences was interviewed by Fox News and said that a three foot rise in sea level is going to cause problems for Florida. He says that a four foot rise, "becomes extremely difficult to live in South Florida, and [at] five feet probably impossible."

This may sound far off and unimportant, but the Florida coast is already seeing signs of sea level rise. Jeffrey Chanton, the John Widmer Winchester Professor of Oceanography Ph.D. at UNC,was quoted by World-Mysteries.com as saying that "Along the marshy Gulf Coast of Florida, the effects of sea level rise can be observed in the number of dead cabbage palms at the seaward edge of the salt marsh."
Quoting luvtogolf:


You really like putting people down.
Not all people; just intentionally stupid ones whose boneheaded decisions directly affect me and my family's safety. (It's my right and duty as an American to do so.)

At any rate, on the vast continuum of things, the few paragraphs I write in an internet forum ridiculing backwards-thinking Washington politicians is dwarfed into utter insignificance when compared with ranking policymaking members of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology who are wholly ignorant of science, uneducated on space, and deathly afraid of technology, and yet who are nonetheless in a position to radically alter the lives and lifestyles of both my grandchildren and yours. Wouldn't it be more appropriate for you to address them rather than me?
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Just watch out for your fillings, ha. Unless you're building up a reserve for future speculative trade, of course. In which case you should invest in dentistry, too.



Well at least I'm ahead of the game and haven't needed any fillings yet, my teeth are all original. However I agree that all those ju-ju beans require some dental investment. At least a good solid supply of tooth paste, dental floss, and tooth brushes for the cellar for post-doom living.
While the Blog is slow....

I came across this WM story on project Censored

At a recent international symposium, scientists asserted that “manipulation of climate through modification of cirrus clouds is neither a hoax nor a conspiracy theory.” The only conspiracy surrounding geoengineering is that most governments and industry refuse to publicly admit what anyone can see in the sky or discover in peer-reviewed research. The Belfort Group has been working to raise public awareness about toxic aerial spraying, popularly referred to as chemtrails. However, scientists preferred the term ‘persistent contrails’ to describe the phenomenon, in an attempt to move the inquiry away from amateur conspiracy theories.

Link

It is number 9 on the list.
Largo,

I was just at my NC beach and can assure you,

it's a beautiful day, the beaches are open and people are having a wonderful time. Wilmington, as you know, means "friendship".
ok I think ive posted enough..the biggest threat we face and our kids face..IS..sea level rise, who knows or cares if it IS..golbal warming or not..the scientific evidence is in..the sea IS rising and faster than thought....and in 50 years you young people in here living along the coasts will actually see the serious effects of this rise...I probably wont be around by then but you young folks will be AND even worse..YOUR kids in the future will be seeing a very different US coastline than we here today see...me myself, im not too thrilled with the future times..looks to be alot of hardship coming in the decades to come huh..gee..forget the cash flow problems of today we are facing..a far more dangerous thing is coming down the pike by centuries end
695. vis0

Quoting Neapolitan:
What does fairness have to do with anything? And where did you see anyone trying to use Sandy's size as evidence in support of AGW? Dr. Masters wrote an entirely truthful and logical statement:

"...we've seen significant and unprecedented changes to our atmosphere in recent decades, due to our emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide. The laws of physics demand that the atmosphere must respond."

There you have it, in language so simple even a third-grader could understand it, no?

The more than 3.4 million tons of fossil fuel CO2 we humans pump into the environment each and every hour has consequences. At least part of Sandy's size, ferocity, or path may be one of those consequences. It's premature to state with certainty how much AGW influenced Sandy, but it's premature--and utterly illogical--to claim that it didn't affect it at all.
==========================
Agreeing what/how you state it.
Yet instead of Global Warming meaning mother nature will respond with a nicely understandable package of over heating, which could easily be counteracted.
 i prefer "Global climate Schizo", in that its more like Mother-in-Law Nature (no offense just using artistic lic. to present with colour a theory) trying to balance an unnatural sequence of events (man made pollutants as oppose to natural pollutant as Forest Fires or Radon ages). In doing so it will not be a predictable consent warming when we add the long term Sun/Galctic/Cluster/Universal cycles. It'll be more like  20 yrs land is hotter than recent averages but oceans are cooler then certain year where the Southern Hemisphere is breaking cold records as N. hemisphere is melting then 3 yrs of too dry, then 9 years of too much rain over one continent but not enough on the others. Since pollutants from man are not following a natural cycle, mother nature-in-law will ditto it back in the same manner but with her infamous patience of century long ebbs n flows.

So,All the storms throughout history that raked the Eastcoast of the U.S.(and there have been some real doosies) were just natural weather patterns. Now they are all attributed to Climate Change! Interesting!
Quoting ncstorm:
Largo,

I was just at my NC beach and can assure you,

it's a beautiful day, the beaches are open and people are having a wonderful time. Wilmington, as you know, means "friendship".
yes same here..its 81 degree's and sunny now..but as the years go by..this will change im sure..well im 40 feet above sea level..if i can live that long..i'll have oceanfront property? LOL
Quoting overwash12:
So,All the storms throughout history that raked the Eastcoast of the U.S.(and there have been some real doosies) were just natural weather patterns. Now they are all attributed to Climate Change! Interesting!


You got it..

now head to the table with all the cherry flavored koolaid and ask your question again..be sure to drink it fast without thinking..
you see now..its useless geez
seems like the weather has calmed down some today.................
Quoting ncstorm:


You got it..

now head to the table with all the cherry flavored koolaid and ask your question again..be sure to drink it fast without thinking..
Let me put on my Rose colored glasses first!LOL
Sigh.

Little boxes on the hillside,
Little boxes made of ticky tacky,
Little boxes on the hillside,
Little boxes all the same...

(Look, I was _ordered_ to drink beer somewhere above in this thread, what?)
Quoting LargoFl:
Rising sea level is one of the most threatening impacts of climate change in Florida. Satellite observations show that global sea level rise is accelerating. By 2100, sea level rise could well exceed 3 feet if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated and a 6 foot rise is possible. The higher end of the estimates could be realized if the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets break up more rapidly. This threatens to submerge Florida's coastal communities and economies since roughly 9 percent of the state is within 5 feet of the existing sea level. Rising sea level also threatens the beaches, wetlands, and mangrove forests that surround the state. Some of the small islands of the Florida Keys could completely disappear due to rising sea levels. Inland ecosystems will also suffer as salt water intrusion into the Everglades or up rivers impacts freshwater plants and animals. Critical habitats for fish and birds, as well as endangered species like the key deer, American alligator and Florida panther, will be severely reduced and could disappear altogether.
Quoting LargoFl:
Thanks Gro..from what im reading lately most scientists now agree the sea levels are going to rise, I have been going from coastal city to coastal city all along the USA coastline, and the story is the same..the leaders in each coastal city is now preparing for a 2 to 6 foot rise in the sea levels..its real now, no arguing anymore..its already happening and we along the coastlines need to prepare for it


It would be interesting to see a study done summarizing the changing expectations of the degree of sea level rise. That is, it is the predictions that are the object of the study.

From my casual anecdotal point of view, it seems like the rate of change of worsening expectation is itself increasing.

I imagine that will make its exponential leap off the north end of the chart the day that the caps slide off into the sea, and all scientists shriek together in an odd form of harmony.

Scientific American magazine

If extreme weather events seem to you to be on the rise, your powers of observation are accurate. Scientific American's latest eBook, Storm Warnings: Climate Change and Extreme Weather, gives readers the tools to better understand what is driving climate change, what might be in store in the coming decades and how we can begin to reverse the detrimental effects that human activity is having on Earth's climate systems.
----

For November, we turn our attention to our immediate environment. Hurricanes. Blizzards. Flooding. Drought. If extreme weather events like these seem to be on the rise, your powers of observation are accurate. The first three-quarters of 2012 brought the worst European winter in 25 years, massive flooding in Australia, Brazil and China, and a deepening drought in the U.S. affecting more than 50 percent of the country. And then came the superstorm Sandy late last month, inflicting billions of dollars of damage to the Northeast. The likelihood of such extreme weather events is increasingly being tied to anthropogenic -- or manmade, mostly through overproduction of carbon dioxide -- global warming. It's no longer an abstract idea; it's being experienced directly and locally, on nearly every level.


http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/at-scientific -american/2012/11/13/storm-warnings-climate-change -and-extreme-weather-sas-latest-e-book/
Quoting overwash12:
So,All the storms throughout history that raked the Eastcoast of the U.S.(and there have been some real doosies) were just natural weather patterns. Now they are all attributed to Climate Change! Interesting!


Individual storms then, now, and in the future will be created/steered/dissipated by weather patterns. This has not changed. Just like how at any given moment, sea level on the beach is largely a function of being in a trough or a crest of a wave.

Climate change impacts the frequency and intensity of these events, as averaged over decadal or longer timescales. It is trend on top of noise. With the beach example, it's the average sea level of many many waves. Your comments in an attempt to sound sarcastic and witty were actually not grounded in much actual scientific evidence or discussion.
Quoting LargoFl:
ok I think ive posted enough..the biggest threat we face and our kids face..IS..sea level rise, who knows or cares if it IS..golbal warming or not..the scientific evidence is in..the sea IS rising and faster than thought....and in 50 years you young people in here living along the coasts will actually see the serious effects of this rise...I probably wont be around by then but you young folks will be AND even worse..YOUR kids in the future will be seeing a very different US coastline than we here today see...me myself, im not too thrilled with the future times..looks to be alot of hardship coming in the decades to come huh..gee..forget the cash flow problems of today we are facing..a far more dangerous thing is coming down the pike by centuries end


I certainly agree with Neo, above (stupid people), and wonder if the presence of same is not more of a threat to the human race than rising seas. With the sea, well, you can get above the water line. But with stupid people, you can only wait for Saint Darwin to act, and gosh those saint guys are slow sometimes.

But stupid and worse, intentionally ignorant people are everywhere. There seems to be no escape!
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


It would be interesting to see a study done summarizing the changing expectations of the degree of sea level rise. That is, it is the predictions that are the object of the study.

From my casual anecdotal point of view, it seems like the rate of change of worsening expectation is itself increasing.

I imagine that will make its exponential leap off the north end of the chart the day that the caps slide off into the sea, and all scientists shriek together in an odd form of harmony.

yes i agree..from what im reading..sea level rise has increased and its faster since just the 1970's..who knows what it will be like just at the end of This decade..whew..scary times are coming indeed..if folks think the economic times are bad now..just wait..all our ports etc..all our coastal cities where most of the trade happens..gone..in a way im glad im old..10 years i'll be poof too hopefully lol..i wont be here to see this happening
708. vis0
44. LargoFl
3:37 PM GMT on November 13, 2012


+3



















I have a huge question..im asking
with the fed govt 14 trillion dollars in the hole or more..WHERE is THIS
money going to come from?.............Governor Cuomo To Seek $30
Billion In Federal Aid To Rebuild New York After Superstorm Sandy


RE: Ya know dose guys up the street that make & use phoney 5s 10 20s till their caught, well same thing except the Treasury tells official don't CATCH these. aka catch22B. Were there is a will there is a Bill or vice versa. -vis0





Quoting MontanaZephyr:


It would be interesting to see a study done summarizing the changing expectations of the degree of sea level rise. That is, it is the predictions that are the object of the study.

From my casual anecdotal point of view, it seems like the rate of change of worsening expectation is itself increasing.

I imagine that will make its exponential leap off the north end of the chart the day that the caps slide off into the sea, and all scientists shriek together in an odd form of harmony.



Scientists know all about harmony, but I'm not so sure we can actually manage it.

More beer, maybe. For the audience, at least.

In seriousness, yeah, I never thought I'd see scientists putting out this level of collective shriek in my lifetime, as somebody who grew up in a family of them. That's noteworthy in itself, folks. It really is. Scientists -- scientists don't really shriek, on any reasonably large scale. We live by the caveat and the tempered statement.

--->EEEEEEEEEEEEEKKK!<---

I leave you all. G'night.
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Scientists know all about harmony, but I'm not so sure we can actually manage it.

More beer, maybe. For the audience, at least.

In seriousness, yeah, I never thought I'd see scientists putting out this level of collective shriek in my lifetime, as somebody who grew up in a family of them. That's noteworthy in itself, folks. It really is. Scientists -- scientists don't really shriek, on any reasonably large scale. We live by the caveat and the tempered statement.

--->EEEEEEEEEEEEEKKK!<---

I leave you all. G'night.
This is a really good post...Dont leave..sniffle..
Thanks Dr. Masters! :-)
Quoting hydrus:
This is a really good post...Dont leave..sniffle..


;)

(The lurkers never _actually_ leave. But we do need our beauty rests, from time to time.)
608 LargoFl "WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF ALL THE ICE IN THE WORLD MELTED?...[skipping to]...What if [just] the Greenland Ice Sheet were to completely melt? Sea level would rise by more than 7 m (23 ft) placing most coastal areas and large coastal cities like London and Los Angeles under water.

errm... no. The California coastline consists nearly entirely of steep cliffs or rapidly rising hills with beaches at some of their bases.
The direct effect on the City of LosAngeles would be almost unnoticeable.
The County of LosAngeles would lose major portions of SanPedro-thru-LongBeach along with MarinaDelRey and smaller portions of other beach communities, but that's still far less than 5% of the county's land area.
HOWEVER, significant portions of inland California would become part of the Pacific. The capitol and its suburbs would become segmented into islets within a (new) Sacramento(thruStockton)Bay, and a greatly expanded SaltonSea would occupy a healthy-sized chunk of southeasternCalifornia.
(And in a hopeful g'night -- I have watched this blog for years before actually commenting here, and a lot of folks have really communicated well on these topics of late. Open communication has been had. People have thought harder. Conclusions have shifted, ideas have been heard, and original thoughts have been rethought -- a topic that was once untouchable is being discussed regularly and largely with respect, with some exceptions, but fewer all the time.

You know, opinions and orifices and all that.

I actually consider the shifts in these conversations on this blog to be a great thing and a good sign for us all.)
I see it still not safe to come back and post weather related stuff here. I'll be back in a few days to check again. Play nice everyone.
Quoting yoboi:



if we go back to the horse and buggy days the co2 emmisions should go down.....you should be on there side or do you want co2 to rise??


I wonder if Nea would ever put his many many words into action in his local/county area. Actions speak louder than words, right.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012

...COASTAL STORM SANDY SETS SOME NEW RECORDS IN OUR AREA...

ON OCTOBER 29, 2012, COASTAL STORM SANDY SLAMMED INTO THE NEW JERSEY
COAST. A LARGE AND DAMAGING WIND FIELD ACCOMPANIED THIS STORM. A
PEAK WIND GUST TO 68 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE PHILADELPHIA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ACCORDING TO LOCAL RECORDS, THIS GUST IS THE
SEVENTH HIGHEST WIND GUST RECORDED AT THE AIRPORT. BELOW IS A
LISTING, BY RANK, OF THE HISTORIC PEAK WIND GUSTS FOR PHILADELPHIA.


RANK PEAK WIND GUST /MPH/ AND DATE
---- -----------------------------

1 94 MPH ON OCTOBER 15, 1954 /HURRICANE HAZEL/

2 88 MPH ON JULY 14, 1931

3 75 MPH ON JUNE 24, 2010 /THUNDERSTORM/

4 71 MPH ON JUNE 1, 1998

5 /TIE/ 69 MPH ON MAY 28, 2005 /THUNDERSTORM/
69 MPH ON MARCH 18, 1989 /THUNDERSTORM/

*7 68 MPH ON OCTOBER 29, 2012 /COASTAL STORM SANDY/

8 67 MPH ON MAY 8, 1984 /THUNDERSTORM/



...RECORD LOW PRESSURE SET AT PHILADELPHIA DURING COASTAL STORM
SANDY...

AT THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, THE PRESSURE DROPPED TO
953 MB AT 932 PM ON OCTOBER 29, 2012. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 962 MB, WHICH WAS SET DURING THE SUPERSTORM OF MARCH 13, 1993.



...RECORD SETTING STORM TIDE AT THE SANDY HOOK, NJ NOS TIDE SITE
DURING COASTAL STORM SANDY...

PRELIMINARY DATA PRIOR TO POWER BEING LOST, THE SANDY HOOK TIDE GAUGE
RECORDED A LEVEL OF 13.3 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER /MLLW/, WHICH IS
AT LEAST 3.2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.1 FEET SET
DURING HURRICANE DONNA ON SEPTEMBER 12, 1960. FUTURE REVIEW OF THIS
DATA, ONCE IT BECOMES AVAILABLE, WILL PROBABLY REVEAL AN EVEN HIGHER
TIDE DURING MONDAY EVENING OCTOBER 29, 2012.



...RECORD SETTING WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44065 AND BUOY 44025 THE
EVENING OF OCTOBER 29, 2012 DURING COASTAL STORM SANDY...

WHILE THE OFFICIAL PERIOD OF RECORD IS VERY SHORT FOR BUOY 44065,
DATING BACK TO 2008, THE WAVE HEIGHT OF 32.5 FEET REPORTED AT 850 PM
EDT MONDAY EVENING OCTOBER 29, 2012 AT THIS BUOY, EXCEEDED THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 26 FEET SET AT ABOUT 9 AM AUGUST 28, 2011,
ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE. BUOY 44065 IS LOCATED NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO
NEW YORK HARBOR, 15 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF BREEZY POINT, NY.

AT BUOY 44025, THE RECORD 31 FOOT WAVE HEIGHT AT ABOUT 8 PM EDT
MONDAY EVENING OCTOBER 29, 2012, EXCEEDED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF
30 FEET SET ON DECEMBER 11, 1992. THE PERIOD OF RECORD AT BUOY
44025 BEGAN IN 1975. BUOY 44025 IS LOCATED 30 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF ISLIP, NY.

BASED ON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED, IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH
NATIONAL DATA BUOY LOCATIONS NEAREST SANDY HOOK, ACHIEVED A RECENT
RECORD EXTREME SEA STATE ON TOP OF AND PROBABLY VERY CLOSE TO THE
TIME OF THE RECORD STORM TIDE AT SANDY HOOK. ONE CAN INFER FROM THE
DATA THAT THESE WAVE HEIGHTS WERE THE LARGEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING
BEGAN IN THIS PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 1975.

$$

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Succession when talking about states leaving the union is completely correct. Don't let others tell you otherwise.
um no, it's definitely secession, as in "a petition to secede from the United States"
I was wondering what the discussions would be if the earth was rapidly cooling.What could we do to reverse it if anything? Doubt we could change the earth's axis or it's orbit around the sun. Any suggestions? I wanna be prepared.
Quoting LargoFl:
What if the Greenland Ice Sheet were to completely melt? Sea level would rise by more than 7 m (23 ft) placing most coastal areas and large coastal cities like London and Los Angeles under water.


Everytime I'm reading such numbers I am wondering how much of that could be compensated by storing water in depressions like the Death Valley, the Dead Sea and the like. But I guess, aside of technical and other issues, that nobody ever calculated that.

And yet another thought: How many water nowadays is in the ocean instead of held back somewhere in the native woods? How many litres can hold a grown-up tree? How many cubic kilometres of water are in the Atlantic because in the 19th century in the U.S. many forests had been logged and still are logged in the tropics nowadays. I can't really imagine but it must be big, big numbers.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Areas shaded in red would equate to a 1 meter rise in sea level.


Don't forget the tides and waves on top of that.
The 18z GFS brings in a real arctic airmass to the NE late in the run. It's actually been quite consistent in this, but I don't think any runs have shown air as cold as this:





Courtesy of D Rumsfeld: There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 18z GFS brings in a real arctic airmass to the NE late in the run. It's actually been quite consistent in this, but I don't think any runs have shown air as cold as this:






None of the runs have shown that cold of air, but they do bring some arctic air down. Should get interesting in the next couple weeks.
Quoting Matthias1967:


Everytime I'm reading such numbers I am wondering how much of that could be compensated by storing water in depressions like the Death Valley, the Dead Sea and the like. But I guess, aside of technical and other issues, that nobody ever calculated that.

And yet another thought: How many water nowadays is in the ocean instead of held back somewhere in the native woods? How many litres can hold a grown-up tree? How many cubic kilometres of water are in the Atlantic because in the 19th century in the U.S. many forests had been logged and still are logged in the tropics nowadays. I can't really imagine but it must be big, big numbers.

It is fun to think about orders of magnitude. Here is a graphic showing how water is stored on earth. Biological water is over 1000 cubic kilometers, surely an enormous amount. Compared to my few liters of personal H2O that is indeed a big number, but compared to the total biological water is about .0001 % of the total which is pretty small in comparison, just a drop in the bucket (if that).

Check out The Poetry of Donal Rumsfeld.


The Unknown

As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.
Glass Box

You know, it's the old glass box at the—
At the gas station,
Where you're using those little things
Trying to pick up the prize,
And you can't find it.
It's—

And it's all these arms are going down in there,
And so you keep dropping it
And picking it up again and moving it,
But—

Some of you are probably too young to remember those—
Those glass boxes,
But—

But they used to have them
At all the gas stations
When I was a kid.
I saw this on the WU model map for precip type, 12z GFS run. There looks to be a big high but it is just how the precip worked out. I did not edit this in any way, shape, or form.
This may have been mentioned already, but score one for the GFS as the Euro has now come into line on a well out to sea scenario for next week's storm:

GFS 1 week:



Euro 1 week, not quite as far out to sea as the GFS but much more so than its previous runs:



Assuming there's no surprise shift back this will provide a little redemption for the GFS which was beaten badly by the Euro on the previous Nor'easter, as well as Sandy of course.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I saw this on the WU model map for precip type, 12z GFS run. There looks to be a big high but it is just how the precip worked out. I did not edit this in any way, shape, or form.

Snow all the way to the Outer Banks of NC if that happened, lol.
From Levi:

"I still think the southern and eastern U.S. winter will end up warmer than some are forecasting. The PDO remains solidly negative, which has a more direct influence on the large scale wave pattern in the northern hemisphere than the ENSO does. Even if a weak El Nino holds on, the pattern is more likely to resemble La Nina across North America during the next 3 months. The current National Multi-model Ensemble forecast has progressively become more supportive of this idea since September."
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Snow all the way to the Outer Banks of NC if that happened, lol.

That would be a change for them but I doubt the Outer Banks will be seeing snow this early.
Quoting eyeofbetsy:
I was wondering what the discussions would be if the earth was rapidly cooling.What could we do to reverse it if anything? Doubt we could change the earth's axis or it's orbit around the sun. Any suggestions? I wanna be prepared.
If the earth were rapidly cooling--which it most definitely is not--the one proven method by which we could warm it back up just as rapdily would be to synthesize and pump more than 3.4 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every hour of every day. There's virtually no doubt among scientists that that has, and would, do the trick....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
From Levi:

"I still think the southern and eastern U.S. winter will end up warmer than some are forecasting. The PDO remains solidly negative, which has a more direct influence on the large scale wave pattern in the northern hemisphere than the ENSO does. Even if a weak El Nino holds on, the pattern is more likely to resemble La Nina across North America during the next 3 months. The current National Multi-model Ensemble forecast has progressively become more supportive of this idea since September."


Zachary Labe (Blizzard92) has an excellent winter weather blog if you're interested. It's primarily targeted towards the mid-Atlantic/NE however.
isacc was no baby either
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Only idiots claim that Sandy was "caused" caused by AGW. No legitimate climate scientist would make such a statement. AGW doesn't cause weather, it influences weather.

Don't kid yourself about science. Science did not convince humans to evacuate Staten Island. Plaquemines for Isaac. Bolivar for Ike.


Science is not about convincing anyone of anything. Convincing requires bias, and science is supposed to be impartial. (bf added bold to xyrus words) Science will say, "The likely storm surge will be 12 feet". It is up to the individual ultimately whether or not they will take action on the science. You either listen to it, or you don't. But you better be damn well prepared for the consequences if you don't.

For solving any problem that involves the ever present human factor, a game plan with a view of "Science vs Mythology," will not work. (bf original comment bold)


You're right, because that quickly boils down into faith vs. facts at which point any argument becomes useless. Blind faith will trump facts, as can be seen by those people who refuse to evacuate because "god will protect them".
Faith is fine. But when faith flies in the face of reality, that's when problems begin.
(xyrus original comment bold)


After all, we do have Colleges of Arts and Sciences. If humans are going to fight their way out of this paper bag, they'll need all the brainpower they can get, from both sides of their brains.


You can be creative without bringing in mythology/faith, nor does being a godlss heathen automatically make you Vulcan.



Also, regarding the conversation in comments last night. Whatever words or actions, there are as many different interpretations possible as there are humans on earth. Another example of, let me call it "Humanity," the reason pure science will not work for changing the human condition.


No, but science and facts SHOULD be able to convince people that certain courses of action are better (bf added bold to xyrus words) than ideological onces. Unfortunately, as a species we will probably need a few thousand years more of evolution before that happens.
Wasn't gonna quote you because it makes this comment too dang long. On second, or maybe it was third thought, I decided to.

Where did I mention faith or ideology? I'm talking ways of knowing and understanding the human condition, communicating it and acting to change it. Mythology applies to all insight expressing the human quest that is not science - not just old stories from religion but all insight and non-scientific ways of knowing. In that I would include all arts, literature, music, film and some aspects of the social sciences, the healing arts, mathematics and theoretical physics. Lots more.

With that in mind, think for a minute who and what will have to change depending what goals are set for reducing the human contribution to climate change. Every single state, city, country and dwelling. Worldwide. And all humans living now and in the future. Societies will not change based on science. Societies are made of human beings who by and large don't understand or care to understand science. Other values take precedence, whether it be religion or just plain life experience. e.g. The hurricane evacs. Scientists made forecasts. People were asked to leave but they did not. Simple.

A bridge is needed - one that weaves science and human understanding. Scientists of all disciplines are capable of recognizing that but they're much better at creating new stuff than at communicating with non-scientists.
Quoting islander101010:
isacc was no baby either


Apparently flooding in some neighborhoods in and around Laplace was comparable to Katrina. That being said, Isaac's areal damage was much more localized, and I'm still of the opinion that it doesn't merit retirement. Sandy is a different kettle of fish.

ETA: Though if you were talking about size, then yes, we can add Isaac to the growing list of unusually larger Atlantic tropical cyclones.
684. LargoFl 3:58 PM EST on November 14, 2012

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/11/04/364402 7/nc-coast-a-hot-spot-of-rising.html#storylink=cpy

The link doesn't work, I'd like to read it, and send it a couple places, can ya help please sir?
well, the oceans are cooling. too bad too, sea life is undergoing massive changes as a result, the once and future gulf stream..........ocean currents around the globe....well, mum is the word I suppose, not to hard to figure a reason why it is kept quiet.
Quoting indianrivguy:
684. LargoFl 3:58 PM EST on November 14, 2012

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/11/04/364402 7/nc-coast-a-hot-spot-of-rising.html#storylink=cpy

The link doesn't work, I'd like to read it, and send it a couple places, can ya help please sir?



Link
Quoting billburke:
well, the oceans are cooling. too bad too, sea life is undergoing massive changes as a result, the once and future gulf stream..........ocean currents around the globe....well, mum is the word I suppose, not to hard to figure a reason why it is kept quiet.


[citation needed]
Quoting aspectre:
iterate or reiterate -- [in this particular usage] repeat for the purpose of emphasis

C'mon guys... within contest, the intended meaning is extremely obvious, and the intended word only slightly less so*.
More than a typo and less than a spoonerism; it ain't as if we all ain't been guilty of a similar mental cross-firing at sometime or another.

* ie The word isn't used often enough in common conversation to be a part of "basic English" in the manner that 'repeat' is.


Sure, lots of times, no doubt -and please, when it happens in something I have written, let me know. Mistakes detract, as well as distract, from an argument (a fact I spent a lot of years trying to get students to take to heart). And if we are having a contest about it, then context will tell. (That was a small, very small joke.)
Quoting Neapolitan:
If the earth were rapidly cooling--which it most definitely is not--the one proven method by which we could warm it back up just as rapdily would be to synthesize and pump more than 3.4 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every hour of every day. There's virtually no doubt among scientists that that has, and would, do the trick....


I'm pretty sure you just fed a troll with this answer, because the answer is so obvious, and it was such a silly question ("I wanna be prepared" riiiight).
But whatever. Keep fightin' the good fight Neapolitan. :)

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I'm pretty sure you just fed a troll with this answer, because the answer is so obvious, and it was such a silly question ("I wanna be prepared" riiiight).
But whatever. Keep fightin' the good fight Neapolitan. :)
Have to commend this guy for his patience with the deniers. I would have been at wits end by now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
From Levi:

"I still think the southern and eastern U.S. winter will end up warmer than some are forecasting. The PDO remains solidly negative, which has a more direct influence on the large scale wave pattern in the northern hemisphere than the ENSO does. Even if a weak El Nino holds on, the pattern is more likely to resemble La Nina across North America during the next 3 months. The current National Multi-model Ensemble forecast has progressively become more supportive of this idea since September."
Levi sure likes the PDO. He based a lot of his winter forecast off the PDO last year and did a pretty good job. We'll see how this winter goes.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Link


Thank you Mr. Northeyewallneveragain :)
Quoting billburke:
well, the oceans are cooling. too bad too, sea life is undergoing massive changes as a result, the once and future gulf stream..........ocean currents around the globe....well, mum is the word I suppose, not to hard to figure a reason why it is kept quiet.

I made you your own Wikipedia tag...

Quoting TomballTXPride:

For someone who plusses Neapolitan every chance she can get, um, er, I think we know what's going on here.
I plus what I agree with...isn't that what it's for? Or is there some sycophantic handshake I could care less about? Go ahead throw me under the bus.

I come here to learn about meteorology, and tropical weather.

Pardon me for a weak moment in dealing with someone who refused believe that the bible doesn't represent observable, provable phenomenon.

Go ahead throw me under the bus.
Quoting AegirsGal:
I plus what I agree with...isn't that what it's for? Or is there some sycophantic handshake I could care less about? Go ahead throw me under the bus.

I come here to learn about meteorology, and tropical weather.

Pardon me for a weak moment in dealing with someone who refused believe that the bible doesn't represent observable, provable phenomenon.

Go ahead throw me under the bus.

Nope. Not gonna throw you under the bus. Don't have too. I can care less about who you plus or not, especially if it's Neapolitan or Xyrus or anyone with an green energy agenda or just anyone else. You write what you want. But it does reflect on you, no? Why would you need my permission?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Does anyone have a feeling that something very bad is going to happen very soon....like within a month?
Maybe its just me....


Anyway...Even the Noreaster on the Euro is lackluster with snowfall amounts so I wouldnt count on too much snow etc.

Not really, it might be just you.
The Nor'easter shouldn't be as strong as the last one too. Still the NE doesn't need another storm to slow progress.
Interesting comments pulled from an article from Joe Bastardi regarding Sandy.


In that same interview, Joe Bastardi, a noted meteorologist and former Accuweather forecaster who now co-leads long range forecasting at WeatherBell Analytics, challenged Gore’s claims. Bastardi has been critical of similar claims in the past, so I reached out to him to get his take on some of the claims in Monday’s Huffington Post article. He points out that we are instead seeing weather history repeat itself, and poses an important question to activists pointing to Sandy as “overwhelming evidence” of global warming as its cause:

“Was it global warming in the 1950’s when the East Coast was consistently devastated by hurricanes more powerful than Sandy?”

The following is Bastardi’s response in its entirety.

The idea that the devastation from Sandy was caused by global warming is wrong for many reasons. Those pushing this agenda are ignoring meteorological history, or purposefully leaving it out of the discussion. On top of the fact that we have seen much stronger storms hit these areas before with more frequency, the premise of the argument lacks credence because global temperatures have not increased since the late 1990’s.

Anthropogenic global warming activists claim that all extreme weather events are somehow related to “global warming,” which has been re-termed “climate change” since global temperatures are no longer warming. The FACT remains that global tropical activity, which can be measured using the ACE Index (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), is near record lows according to peer-reviewed research and even the most recent UN IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX 2012).

But one cannot simply equate global conditions with regional weather events, which is a cornerstone of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) arguments. We are seeing increased tropical activity in the Atlantic because we are in a warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We are seeing decreased tropical activity in the Pacific because we are in cold phase of the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation (PDO). This SAME situation occurred in the 1950s, when numerous major hurricanes hit the Eastern Seaboard (Carolinas and North) from 1954-1960.

There was far less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during that time period and we saw far more destructive hurricanes hit the Northeast. Keep in mind that major hurricanes are defined as having sustained winds greater than 115mph. Hurricane Sandy at its strongest had sustained winds of 90mph.

In 1954, Hurricanes Carol, Edna and Hazel -- all major hurricanes -- hit the US East Coast. Carol drove ten feet of water into Providence, Rhode Island. Eleven days later, Edna bisected Cape Cod as a major hurricane. Hazel hit the Carolinas with 140 mph winds on Oct 15th 1954 in a pattern that captured the hurricane and sent her NNW all the way to Toronto, where hurricane force winds were still being recorded. In 1960, Hurricane Donna made landfall in New England after devastating Florida and Carolinas. Donna delivered hurricane force winds to every state along the East Coast.

Hurricane Sandy generated record flooding in NYC and NJ because the storm’s track was optimal for generating storm surge in those areas, not because of global warming. However, we have seen far stronger storms impact the Northeast and generate unimaginable storm surges that dwarf the surge of Sandy. Sandy did not generate record surges in Rhode Island and the eastern end of Long Island. The Great 1938 hurricane, nicknamed the Long Island Express, sent what was said to be a 50 foot wall of water over the Hamptons and a 30 foot storm surge up Narragansett Bay, which put Providence, RI under 13 feet of water. Sustained winds of 121 mph were recorded at Blue Hill, Massachusetts with gusts to 186 mph. If the track had been a bit further west, a landfall near JFK airport, 20 feet of water would have surged over the battery!

In 2006 when the Pacific turned cold, I hypothesized that we would see more hurricane landfalls on the East Coast. We are in a climate pattern similar to the 1950’s and can expect to see more storms like Irene and Sandy until the Atlantic cycles back into its cold phase. The AMO flipped warm in 1995 and we can expect to see the AMO flip cold in about ten years. Dr. William Gray of Colorado State forecasted back in the 1970’s that when the AMO flipped warm, the US Coastline would be much more vulnerable.

Sadly, AGW activists ignore that history is repeating itself. Was it global warming in the 1950’s when the East Coast was consistently devastated by hurricanes more powerful than Sandy? How do they account for the fact that Earth’s temperatures have not been increasing while CO2 continues to rise? Despite reduced global tropical activity, the fact remains that over the next decade, we should expect to see more storms like Sandy, and possibly stronger. Property damage will be catastrophic if we continue to see hurricanes like we did in the 1950’s.

It is imperative that the public knows and understands what has happened before, and not simply accept as fact the word of people who won’t tell you how violent the weather was the last time we were in this cycle.

I feel the best way to counter distortions about the present and future is to bring up the facts of the past. Knowledge of what hurricanes have done in the last climate cycle similar to this one can debunk an argument that is based on an agenda that is being pushed by Al Gore, among others.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Apparently flooding in some neighborhoods in and around Laplace was comparable to Katrina. That being said, Isaac's areal damage was much more localized, and I'm still of the opinion that it doesn't merit retirement. Sandy is a different kettle of fish.

ETA: Though if you were talking about size, then yes, we can add Isaac to the growing list of unusually larger Atlantic tropical cyclones.
let the last veteran I rest in peace.;)

Quoting luvtogolf:
Interesting comments pulled from an article from Joe Bastardi regarding Sandy.


In that same interview, Joe Bastardi, a noted meteorologist and former Accuweather forecaster who now co-leads long range forecasting at WeatherBell Analytics, challenged Gore’s claims. Bastardi has been critical of similar claims in the past, so I reached out to him to get his take on some of the claims in Monday’s Huffington Post article. He points out that we are instead seeing weather history repeat itself, and poses an important question to activists pointing to Sandy as “overwhelming evidence” of global warming as its cause:

“Was it global warming in the 1950’s when the East Coast was consistently devastated by hurricanes more powerful than Sandy?”

The following is Bastardi’s response in its entirety.

The idea that the devastation from Sandy was caused by global warming is wrong for many reasons. Those pushing this agenda are ignoring meteorological history, or purposefully leaving it out of the discussion. On top of the fact that we have seen much stronger storms hit these areas before with more frequency, the premise of the argument lacks credence because global temperatures have not increased since the late 1990’s.

Anthropogenic global warming activists claim that all extreme weather events are somehow related to “global warming,” which has been re-termed “climate change” since global temperatures are no longer warming. The FACT remains that global tropical activity, which can be measured using the ACE Index (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), is near record lows according to peer-reviewed research and even the most recent UN IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX 2012).

But one cannot simply equate global conditions with regional weather events, which is a cornerstone of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) arguments. We are seeing increased tropical activity in the Atlantic because we are in a warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We are seeing decreased tropical activity in the Pacific because we are in cold phase of the Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation (PDO). This SAME situation occurred in the 1950s, when numerous major hurricanes hit the Eastern Seaboard (Carolinas and North) from 1954-1960.

There was far less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during that time period and we saw far more destructive hurricanes hit the Northeast. Keep in mind that major hurricanes are defined as having sustained winds greater than 115mph. Hurricane Sandy at its strongest had sustained winds of 90mph.

In 1954, Hurricanes Carol, Edna and Hazel -- all major hurricanes -- hit the US East Coast. Carol drove ten feet of water into Providence, Rhode Island. Eleven days later, Edna bisected Cape Cod as a major hurricane. Hazel hit the Carolinas with 140 mph winds on Oct 15th 1954 in a pattern that captured the hurricane and sent her NNW all the way to Toronto, where hurricane force winds were still being recorded. In 1960, Hurricane Donna made landfall in New England after devastating Florida and Carolinas. Donna delivered hurricane force winds to every state along the East Coast.

Hurricane Sandy generated record flooding in NYC and NJ because the storm’s track was optimal for generating storm surge in those areas, not because of global warming. However, we have seen far stronger storms impact the Northeast and generate unimaginable storm surges that dwarf the surge of Sandy. Sandy did not generate record surges in Rhode Island and the eastern end of Long Island. The Great 1938 hurricane, nicknamed the Long Island Express, sent what was said to be a 50 foot wall of water over the Hamptons and a 30 foot storm surge up Narragansett Bay, which put Providence, RI under 13 feet of water. Sustained winds of 121 mph were recorded at Blue Hill, Massachusetts with gusts to 186 mph. If the track had been a bit further west, a landfall near JFK airport, 20 feet of water would have surged over the battery!

In 2006 when the Pacific turned cold, I hypothesized that we would see more hurricane landfalls on the East Coast. We are in a climate pattern similar to the 1950’s and can expect to see more storms like Irene and Sandy until the Atlantic cycles back into its cold phase. The AMO flipped warm in 1995 and we can expect to see the AMO flip cold in about ten years. Dr. William Gray of Colorado State forecasted back in the 1970’s that when the AMO flipped warm, the US Coastline would be much more vulnerable.

Sadly, AGW activists ignore that history is repeating itself. Was it global warming in the 1950’s when the East Coast was consistently devastated by hurricanes more powerful than Sandy? How do they account for the fact that Earth’s temperatures have not been increasing while CO2 continues to rise? Despite reduced global tropical activity, the fact remains that over the next decade, we should expect to see more storms like Sandy, and possibly stronger. Property damage will be catastrophic if we continue to see hurricanes like we did in the 1950’s.

It is imperative that the public knows and understands what has happened before, and not simply accept as fact the word of people who won’t tell you how violent the weather was the last time we were in this cycle.

I feel the best way to counter distortions about the present and future is to bring up the facts of the past. Knowledge of what hurricanes have done in the last climate cycle similar to this one can debunk an argument that is based on an agenda that is being pushed by Al Gore, among others.
Bastardi needs to stop pretending to be a climatologist.
#754:



wikipedia puts it well
:

"...to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by replacing it with a superficially similar yet unequivalent proposition."
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nope. Not gonna throw you under the bus. Don't have too. I can care less about who you plus or not, especially if it's Neapolitan or Xyrus or anyone with an green energy agenda or just anyone else. You write what you want. But it does reflect on you, no? Why would you need my permission?
Then why quote me and make specific mention of it...find another hobby.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Maybe you oughta stop pretending to be a metoerologist.
Meteorologist*.

Also, that comment at me was quite uncalled for. Why don't you grow up and start acting your age instead of resulting to petty insults? I could report you, but I won't. I'll be the better man and just laugh at you.
Quoting overwash12:
So,All the storms throughout history that raked the Eastcoast of the U.S.(and there have been some real doosies) were just natural weather patterns. Now they are all attributed to Climate Change! Interesting!


Quoting ncstorm:


You got it..

now head to the table with all the cherry flavored koolaid and ask your question again..be sure to drink it fast without thinking..


lol

Nea, do you have me on ignore????
Quoting LargoFl:
If oceans continue to rise in the coming decades, the areas most likely to be under water are Pinellas, Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Lee counties, said scientists who gathered Thursday for Florida Atlantic University's Sea Level Rise Summit.


Ahh I remember that event! It was in June, and I had to miss it for mid-terms (at FAU) I think.
So FOUR HOURS later and this blog is still embroiled in some type of civil war.....or maybe its uncivil war.

ugh. And nobody says anything they've never said before and nobody is changing anybody's mind. I actually see why people leave here.
764. beell
Quoting MrMixon:
#754:



wikipedia puts it well
:

"...to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by replacing it with a superficially similar yet unequivalent proposition."


Could you remind me what the original proposition was again?
TIA
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
9:00 AM JST November 15 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 9.3N 107.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 9.7N 104.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So FOUR HOURS later and this blog is still embroiled in some type of civil war.....or maybe its uncivil war.

ugh. And nobody says anything they've never said before and nobody is changing anybody's mind. I actually see why people leave here.
Believe it or not, some people ARE open-minded enough to change their positions when presented with actual evidence. Unfortunately, not many people here or elsewhere fit that bill. A lot of myopic people exist in this world.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Meteorologist*.

Also, that comment at me was quite uncalled for. Why don't you grow up and start acting your age instead of resulting to petty insults? I could report you, but I won't. I'll be the better man and just laugh at you.

Someone is a little sensitive.
Quoting AegirsGal:
Then why quote me and make specific mention of it...find another hobby.

Once again, I did not quote you, nor did I make specific mention of you. If you would like to find another person to WU email, please do so. I don't like emails.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Someone is a little sensitive.
If I were sensitive, I could come up with a much better approach than this. Trust me.

I don't waste my time on people like Doug, though. Experience has shown it's a useless endeavor.
770. wxmod
A quote from an interview with Al Gore:

"Every single news programme in the United States on television with one exception - Current TV [which was founded by Gore] does not accept their money - but every other network, all of the commentary programmes and news programmes, are sponsored generously by the coal, oil and gas companies. And every viewer who is interested in the political dialogue or the workings of democracy is bathed in a constant shower of misleading propaganda ..."

link:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/14 /al-gore-climate-change-transcript?intcmp=122
Quoting KoritheMan:


Apparently flooding in some neighborhoods in and around Laplace was comparable to Katrina. That being said, Isaac's areal damage was much more localized, and I'm still of the opinion that it doesn't merit retirement. Sandy is a different kettle of fish.

ETA: Though if you were talking about size, then yes, we can add Isaac to the growing list of unusually larger Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Would you add to that list TS Debby and Hurricane Ernesto? Both of them were larger size category.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Believe it or not, some people ARE open-minded enough to change their positions when presented with actual evidence. Unfortunately, not many people here or elsewhere fit that bill. A lot of myopic people exist in this world.
I have your back on that..You never skirt the truth or the facts when presented with them in a honorable way. It is a good quality in my honest opinion.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Would you add to that list TS Debby and Hurricane Ernesto? Both of them were larger size category.


I dunno. Ernesto had a 35 kt wind radii of less than 200 miles at its largest. Not sure I'm comfortable labeling that as "unusually large".
774. wxmod
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
And nobody says anything they've never said before and nobody is changing anybody's mind.


That's the way all blogs are.
Why do you suppose that is?
Quoting hydrus:
I have your back on that..You never skirt the truth or the facts when presented with them in a honorable way. It is a good quality in my honest opinion.


Thank you hydrus. I definitely wasn't including you in the list of myopic people in this world. :)
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Once again, I did not quote you, nor did I make specific mention of you. If you would like to find another person to WU email, please do so. I don't like emails.
We have WU-Mail to avoid posts like this.
Quoting hydrus:
We have WU-Mail to avoid posts like this.

Yes. But sometimes you must say it like this to request another to stop. What is there to avoid, anyway? Am I bothering you?
Quoting KoritheMan:
If I were sensitive, I could come up with a much better approach than this. Trust me.

I don't waste my time on people like Doug, though. Experience has shown it's a useless endeavor.

Why is it a useless endeavor with Doug?
I love it when those on here bash Joe B. for his take on history vs. hurricanes and then praise Jeff Master's and the others who have their take.

Could it have something to do with how they conform to their green-energy GW approach? Hmmm...

Last time I checked Jeff Master's isn't any more a climatologist than Joe Bastardi is....
Just text SAVETHEBLOG to 12212012 to donate weather comments

Your help is much appreciated and needed!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Maybe you oughta stop pretending to be a meteorologist.


EDIT for spellimg

oh snap. lol

Kori, are you pretending to be a meteorologist? Are you a Meteorologist?
Quoting ncstorm:
Just text SAVETHEBLOG to 12212012 to donate weather comments

Your help is much appreciated and needed!

What's the international number for that please. lol
784. wxmod
In an interview on climate change Al Gore said:

"I watched Ahmedinejad last night or maybe it was the night before last on one of the interview shows on CNN and he was asked if he believes the Holocaust was a historical fact and he said: 'Why are you against debating the truth. We need more research. We need investigators to go and look at the evidence'."
Quoting KoritheMan:


I dunno. Ernesto had a 35 kt wind radii of less than 200 miles at its largest. Not sure I'm comfortable labeling that as "unusually large".

But it's over all size was very large.
The GFS still wants to keep the Eastern Seaboard stormy and cold.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Why is it a useless endeavor with Doug?


Because I've seen him deny evidence numerous times. The most recent occasion? His childish insult to me (granted that wasn't explicit, but as adults surely we are able to distinguish between an implicit claim and an explicit one?).
Quoting AussieStorm:

What's the international number for that please. lol


international rates do not apply..
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because I've seen him deny evidence numerous times. The most recent occasion? His childish insult to me (granted that wasn't explicit, but as adults surely we are able to distinguish between an implicit claim and an explicit one?).

What evidence did he deny? I did not see anything like that tonight. He simply presented a piece like many others have been doing tonight regarding the topic of the blog.
Quoting ncstorm:


international rates do not apply..

so that number again is 20122012.
Quoting AussieStorm:

But it's over all size was very large.


I was speaking of wind radii, though. I assumed you were as well. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

Though that does create an entirely different conundrum, doesn't it? Discovering the statistically largest circulations for horizontal extent would be quite challenging, since I'm not sure any records are really tabulated to that effect.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I love it when those on here bash Joe B. for his take on history vs. hurricanes and then praise Jeff Master's and the others who have their take.

Could it have something to do with how they conform to their green-energy GW approach? Hmmm...

Last time I checked Jeff Master's isn't any more a climatologist than Joe Bastardi is....


And of course when Bastardi forecasts a hurricane that will impact the US and not go out to sea, 95% of the blog loves Bastardi and will post his tweets and forecasts until the cows come home. Bastardi does have some good points about the pattern in the 1950's. Here is the write up he did back in July.

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

oh snap. lol

Kori, are you pretending to be a meteorologist? Are you a Meteorologist?


I will happily admit that I do not have any academic credentials identifying me as a meteorologist of any sort. I am just an avid weather watcher who has been making personal forecasts for the last four years. I miss some, while others I nail quite accurately. Just the name of the game ladies and gentlemen.
AAAFFFFGHTHWEHRWHeraSDFWIERNAFDOGADCMS{@HIRWNQDSFAW IR



^^This comment is about as useful as half the other comments on here......good night...
hopefully by tomorrow everybody is in a better mood....
My Calabash tree says that 2012 Hurricane Season is finished.
It also says that there will be winter storms in North America over the next couple of months, and that the weather will be fair to foul with a chance of disparaging remarks leading to stuff and whatnot.

Just sayin'.....
Quoting Chucktown:


And of course when Bastardi forecasts a hurricane that will impact the US and not go out to sea, 95% of the blog loves Bastardi and will post his tweets and forecasts until the cows come home. Bastardi does have some good points about the pattern in the 1950's. Here is the write up he did back in July.

Link

Yeah, you're right. I have noticed that. It's a love / hate relationship with the guy. The opinions and feeling expressed toward him change faster than anything. When it goes certain folks' way, he is the best in the world. When not, well, it's bash time.
Quoting Neapolitan:
If the earth were rapidly cooling--which it most definitely is not--the one proven method by which we could warm it back up just as rapdily would be to synthesize and pump more than 3.4 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every hour of every day. There's virtually no doubt among scientists that that has, and would, do the trick....


Point is, neither you nor anybody else is going to change cooling or warming trends. The cry should be for cleaner air and water and that's done with strict enforcement and very harsh penalties for companies that willfully violate those regulations. When the company I work for has some type of accidental release(usually ethylene) we immediately notified the state's enviormental authorities even though most of those were very small. Technologies of the future will solve many of our pollution problems. You enjoy your current standard of living because of fossil fuels and like it or not they are here to stay. Not to mention these energy jobs are some of the best paying jobs.

When the sun can be positively ruled out as having no connection with the cooling or warming of this planet then I'm in the "jury is still out" category. Have a nice day.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

What evidence did he deny? I did not see anything like that tonight. He simply presented a piece like many others have been doing tonight regarding the topic of the blog.


He is a global warming denier (or at least, he denies human caused climate change -- I do not have sufficient knowledge of his position to make the claim that he outright denies all warming), which is fine; skepticism is good, it's how science has evolved to where it is today. However, skepticism needs to be well-founded (i.e., grounded in evidence, not stubbornness). Thus far, I haven't seen Doug present any compelling evidence (or any evidence at all) that anthropogenic global warming is not occurring.

Now I'll admit that his comment toward me may not have been the result of him denying AGW proponents, but it very well could have. That's why I called it "implicit".
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I love it when those on here bash Joe B. for his take on history vs. hurricanes and then praise Jeff Master's and the others who have their take.

Could it have something to do with how they conform to their green-energy GW approach? Hmmm...

Last time I checked Jeff Master's isn't any more a climatologist than Joe Bastardi is....
I find Joe Bastardi to be very knowledgeable on many weather fronts ( forgive the pun ). People tend to pick on him because he can be abrasive at times, but he does know his stuff. He did not keep his job at AccuWeather for 100,000 years because of the lack of knowledge on the subject. No you are not bothering me..:)
Quoting pottery:
My Calabash tree says that 2012 Hurricane Season is finished.
It also says that there will be winter storms in North America over the next couple of months, and that the weather will be fair to foul with a chance of disparaging remarks leading to stuff and whatnot.

Just sayin'.....
That tree is gifted..It should apply at the NHC.
Quoting eyeofbetsy:


Point is, neither you nor anybody else is going to change cooling or warming trends. The cry should be for cleaner air and water and that's done with strict enforcement and very harsh penalties for companies that willfully violate those regulations. When the company I work for has some type of accidental release(usually ethylene) we immediately notified the state's enviormental authorities even though most of those were very small. Technologies of the future will solve many of our pollution problems. You enjoy your current standard of living because of fossil fuels and like it or not they are here to stay. Not to mention these energy jobs are some of the best paying jobs.

When the sun can be positively ruled out as having no connection with the cooling or warming of this planet then I'm in the "jury is still out" category. Have a nice day.

My experience on here tells me that if it's not 100% burning of the fossil fuels fault, then it ain't being bought. Never mind the sun or any of the other dozen reasons that could explain it. Even de-forestation which is man-made. Forget it. It's not fossil fuels.

I think some would be better off just accepting the fact that they are likely not going away anytime soon, whether or not it's having an impact on the climate or not.
When are some guy on here going to grow some "wheels" and grow up, geez. this blog is worse than a pre-school class just before nap time.

Why do we like to argue about the same stuff here. every time AGW/CC comes up we hear the same things over and over again. PEOPLE..... grow the heck up. If you want to argue and trade silly school yard insults, do it elsewhere.

There will always be 2 sides to every argument and until either side backs down, the argument will continue forever.
Quoting KoritheMan:


He is a global warming denier (or at least, he denies human caused climate change -- I do not have sufficient knowledge of his position to make the claim that he outright denies all warming), which is fine; skepticism is good, it's how science has evolved to where it is today. However, skepticism needs to be well-founded (i.e., grounded in evidence, not stubbornness). Thus far, I haven't seen Doug present any compelling evidence (or any evidence at all) that anthropogenic global warming is not occurring.

Now I'll admit that his comment toward me may not have been the result of him denying AGW proponents, but it very well could have. That's why I called it "implicit".

Okay, Kori.
804. wxmod
For a long time major earthquakes were mostly in the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean. Now it's our turn. There is a lot of pressure building on the San Andreas Fault.

Quoting hydrus:
I find Joe Bastardi to be very knowledgeable on many weather fronts ( forgive the pun ). People tend to pick on him because he can be abrasive at times, but he does know his stuff. He did not keep his job at AccuWeather for 100,000 years because of the lack of knowledge on the subject. No you are not bothering me..:)

Thanks, Hydrus. You had a point about my other comment towards Ariel Gal. But yeah, I like Joe B. Good guy.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

I think some would be better off just accepting the fact that they are likely not going away anytime soon, whether or not it's having an impact on the climate or not.
I do agree on this. ;)
Quoting luvtogolf:

Interesting comments pulled from an article from Joe Bastardi regarding Sandy.

Joe
Bastardi,
denier
of
basic
climate
science.
Quoting hydrus:
That tree is gifted..It should apply at the NHC.

It tried and was turned down.
They couldn't deal with the way it keeps branching out, avoiding the roots of the issues. Also, it's very green, and it leaves people confused and scared.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I'm pretty sure you just fed a troll with this answer, because the answer is so obvious, and it was such a silly question ("I wanna be prepared" riiiight).
But whatever. Keep fightin' the good fight Neapolitan. :)


Nonetheless, it brings a thought to my mind....Greenlands glaciers will be a great loss of fresh water into the salt water oceans. Maybe Greenlands government should start working with other governments, to do something to start transporting what they can to areas that can hold the fresh water or such. They always say water will someday be like gold. Might even make Greenland, or other places with melting glaciers, a bit extra money. Seems silly to just let all that fresh water go to salty waste, when water is so precious in many places. Seems like something could be done?!
Quoting AussieStorm:
When are some guy on here going to grow some "wheels" and grow up, geez. this blog is worse than a pre-school class just before nap time.

Why do we like to argue about the same stuff here. every time AGW/CC comes up we hear the same things over and over again. PEOPLE..... grow the heck up. If you want to argue and trade silly school yard insults, do it elsewhere.

There will always be 2 sides to every argument and until either side backs down, the argument will continue forever.

So you'd rather have a blog with people talking about something set in stone all the time? That's no fun. Of course people are going to be about certain aspects of global warming; it's a debatable topic. That doesn't mean we should just ignore the topic at hand.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

So you'd rather have a blog with people talking about something set in stone all the time? That's no fun. Of course people are going to be about certain aspects of global warming; it's a debatable topic. That doesn't mean we should just ignore the topic at hand.
It makes me chuckle every time someone brings up the global warming and climate statistics and then posts that it is off topic...
Quoting wxmod:
For a long time major earthquakes were mostly in the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean. Now it's our turn. There is a lot of pressure building on the San Andreas Fault.



I'm really not liking how this is setting up. Glad I don't live on the west coast, but I have family in Washington.
813. wxmod
Quoting eyeofbetsy:
the future will solve many of our pollution problems. You enjoy your current standard of living because of fossil fuels and like it or not they are here to stay. Not to mention these energy jobs are some of the best paying jobs.


Not true on all counts. Global warming will release a Pandora's box that will destroy all economies and cause the largest migrations of humans and animals in history. There will be no jobs of any kind, no private property rights, no constitution, very little oxygen and very little food. For the survivalists, there's no hope for you either. Sorry.
Quoting wxmod:
For a long time major earthquakes were mostly in the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean. Now it's our turn. There is a lot of pressure building on the San Andreas Fault.


This is one point I actually agree with you on. When's the last time we had a magnitude 6.5+ quake hit the West Coast? And 6.5 isn't even that big. That fault has plenty of potential to produce a quake of anywhere from magnitude 7 to 9. The problem is it's not something we can really prepare for. We can make long term preparations like improving the building codes, which helps significantly, but there's no way to prepare for the actual event itself... It will catch a lot of people off guard no matter how we prepare.
Quoting wxmod:


Not true on all counts. Global warming will release a Pandora's box that will destroy all economies and cause the largest migrations of humans and animals in history. There will be no jobs of any kind, no private property rights, no constitution, very little oxygen and very little food. For the survivalists, there's no hope for you either. Sorry.

Sounds a little hokey. A little out there. Are you the guy that writes all those doomsday Hollywood movies? If so, please please come out with the day after tomorrow sequel. Pretty please.

Oh wait, there can't be one.
Quoting pottery:

It tried and was turned down.
They couldn't deal with the way it keeps branching out, avoiding the roots of the issues. Also, it's very green, and it leaves people confused and scared.
I have said before not many things manage there affairs as well as a tree does. Besides, trees are actually easy to get along with, they are alot of bark and no bite.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This is one point I actually agree with you on. When's the last time we had a magnitude 6.5+ quake hit the West Coast? And 6.5 isn't even that big. That fault has plenty of potential to produce a quake of anywhere from magnitude 7 to 9. The problem is it's not something we can really prepare for. We can make long term preparations like improving the building codes, which helps significantly, but there's no way to prepare for the actual event itself... It will catch a lot of people off guard no matter how we prepare.

They've been saying that about the New Madrid fault and the Charleston fault now for a long time....
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I love it when those on here bash Joe B. for his take on history vs. hurricanes and then praise Jeff Master's and the others who have their take.

Could it have something to do with how they conform to their green-energy GW approach? Hmmm...

Last time I checked Jeff Master's isn't any more a climatologist than Joe Bastardi is....


Well what about me? LOL I'm not pro-renewables cause of AGW...I'm pro-renewables because I don't think we should pollute the planet in general and don't like paying extortionist power companies...so where does that leave me? Just in the middle, both sides hate me?! LOL
Quoting TomballTXPride:

They've been saying that about the New Madrid fault and the Charleston fault now for a long time....
Growing up in Missouri, I couldn't sleep couple of nights fearing an 8.5 quake... glad I am in North Carolina now.
Quoting wxmod:


Not true on all counts. Global warming will release a Pandora's box that will destroy all economies and cause the largest migrations of humans and animals in history. There will be no jobs of any kind, no private property rights, no constitution, very little oxygen and very little food. For the survivalists, there's no hope for you either. Sorry.


I guess that does it then. Goodbye cruel world.
Quoting wxmod:


Not true on all counts. Global warming will release a Pandora's box that will destroy all economies and cause the largest migrations of humans and animals in history. There will be no jobs of any kind, no private property rights, no constitution, very little oxygen and very little food. For the survivalists, there's no hope for you either. Sorry.

Sounds pretty Dread.
I'm happy it does not apply to me.....
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Well what about me? LOL I'm not pro-renewables cause of AGW...I'm pro-renewables because I don't think we should pollute the planet in general and don't like paying extortionist power companies...so where does that leave me? Just in the middle, both sides hate me?! LOL

You protect your interests at heart. Others protect their bottom line. Deep pockets are dark and dirty.
823. wxmod
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Sounds a little hokey. A little out there. Are you the guy that writes all those doomsday Hollywood movies? If so, please please come out with the day after tomorrow sequel. Pretty please.


If you have any kids, you are helping them toward their demise. If you are young, your kids won't outlive you.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Growing up in Missouri, I couldn't sleep couple of nights fearing an 8.5 quake... glad I am in North Carolina now.

Much less risk in NC, that's for sure. Although now I'm hearing much of that energy from the New Madrid is being transferred to the Wabash Valley Fault line to the north and east up near the Ohio river and Indiana.
Quoting hydrus:
I have said before not many things manage there affairs as well as a tree does. Besides, trees are actually easy to get along with, they are alot of bark and no bite.

Excellent!
heheheheheh
826. wxmod
Quoting pottery:

Sounds pretty Dread.
I'm happy it does not apply to me.....


Perfect. LOL!
Quoting wxmod:
For a long time major earthquakes were mostly in the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean. Now it's our turn. There is a lot of pressure building on the San Andreas Fault.

The bigger quakes lately are on subduction zone areas, the San Andreas fault is a strike-slip fault two totally different mechanisms
Quoting wxmod:


If you have any kids, you are helping them toward their demise. If you are young, your kids won't outlive you.

What if I don't have or want kids?
Quoting nymore:
The bigger quakes lately are on subduction zone areas, the San Andreas fault is a strike-slip fault two totally different mechanisms

Exactly. The next big one likely will be off the coast of Washington State, Oregon, or Canada.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

They've been saying that about the New Madrid fault and the Charleston fault now for a long time....
Both those faults are potentially devastating. They have been relatively inactive, and I pray that it continues that way.
Quoting hydrus:
Both those faults are potentially devastating. They have been relatively inactive, and I pray that it continues that way.

Yep! I know. Same here.
Quoting eyeofbetsy:


I guess that does it then. Goodbye cruel world.
there is only 37 days left...dont sweat it.....have brew and some shrimp.
Just for the record, believe it or not, we did have a tropical depression (25W) form and dissipate in the West Pacific today:

834. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:
If I were sensitive, I could come up with a much better approach than this. Trust me.

I don't waste my time on people like Doug, though. Experience has shown it's a useless endeavor.



do you use your wal mart discount on kool-aid???
Quoting AussieStorm:
When are some guy on here going to grow some "wheels" and grow up, geez. this blog is worse than a pre-school class just before nap time.

Why do we like to argue about the same stuff here. every time AGW/CC comes up we hear the same things over and over again. PEOPLE..... grow the heck up. If you want to argue and trade silly school yard insults, do it elsewhere.

There will always be 2 sides to every argument and until either side backs down, the argument will continue forever.


I admit, I cringe when the fine Doc mentions it at all in a blog! LOL Or when anyone else does for that matter. I come from the perspective that we must be contributing, but it's a mix of natural forces and us....cause our pollution would surely not have 'any' effect. But I'm more anti-leeching-power companies than anything! LOL
Quoting TomballTXPride:

What if I don't have or want kids?

Your'e Doomed anyway.
It's written. By wxmod. And the Inca. The die is cast. Sorry.
Quoting yoboi:



do you use your wal mart discount on kool-aid???
Do they really still sell Kool Aid?......far out..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

So you'd rather have a blog with people talking about something set in stone all the time? That's no fun. Of course people are going to be about certain aspects of global warming; it's a debatable topic. That doesn't mean we should just ignore the topic at hand.

Did i say that, I said the insults need to stop. It's like friggin school yard in here.
Debating is fine but arguing is not. It's like whoever can shout the loudest winds. It's all about getting ones point across not who can shout the loudest. The good thing i see about the AGW/CC debate is people are seriously looking at other ways to create energy from other sources other than oil and coal. The faster we faze these two out the better for the whole planet. but of course it need to be financially viable from 3rd grade countries to 1st grade countries. What's the point of 1st grade countries cleaning up there act if the 2nd and 3rd grade countries don't. That would be like plugging a whole in a dam when it's abut to over-top.

Quoting yoboi:



do you use your wal mart discount on kool-aid???
Yup.
840. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:




lol

Nea, do you have me on ignore????




neap does not have ya on ignore he knows he can't bully you....
841. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yup.



what is the flavor they pushing this week???
Quoting TomballTXPride:

They've been saying that about the New Madrid fault and the Charleston fault now for a long time....


Gee, thanks. I grew up in the New Madrid zone, live in Charleston, and have a child in college just east of Los Angeles. I'm sure I'll sleep well tonight.
In other news, my sister who lives outside of NYC got power back last Tuesday just in time for the snowstorm on Wednesday. And this morning's high tide here in Charleston was really really high. I crossed the Ashley river almost two hours after high tide, and in the 24+ years we've lived here I have never seen it that high. I shudder to think what it was like two hours before.
Returning you now to your regularly scheduled programming.
Quoting yoboi:



what is the flavor they pushing this week???

"Eternity"....

that's what I heard anyway.
844. wxmod
Quoting hydrus:
there is only 37 days left...dont sweat it.....have brew and some shrimp.


Every day!
Quoting wxmod:
For a long time major earthquakes were mostly in the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean. Now it's our turn. There is a lot of pressure building on the San Andreas Fault.



Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but the plate at the San Andreas fault is moving north/south. The Asian boundary of the ring of fire is expanding east/west..the opening fissure creating islands. That kind of plate boundary will create more big quakes I think. Slip faults are worst for big quakes, but where the crust is opening up and creating new land is still most active. I spent half my life trying to move from earthquake zones! LOL Though, can still get hit with mid-continental stress!
Quoting yoboi:



what is the flavor they pushing this week???
There all pretty good with a couple a shots mixed in...whats the diff.?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Much less risk in NC, that's for sure. Although now I'm hearing much of that energy from the New Madrid is being transferred to the Wabash Valley Fault line to the north and east up near the Ohio river and Indiana.
Yeah, I remember a 5.2 quake from Wabash Vally Fault in Illinois few years ago, but I didn't feel that one. I never felt an quake until the one that shook DC area.
Quoting wxmod:


Every day!
God bless you. I knew there are still good people in the world.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You protect your interests at heart. Others protect their bottom line. Deep pockets are dark and dirty.


True enough on both sides! But I'd rather everyone be pro-Earth than anything...maybe I should be a druid LOL
Remove duplicate post
852. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:


I wonder if Nea would ever put his many many words into action in his local/county area. Actions speak louder than words, right.



a good leader leads by example....
853. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

"Eternity"....

that's what I heard anyway.



lol
854. wxmod
Quoting nymore:
The bigger quakes lately are on subduction zone areas, the San Andreas fault is a strike-slip fault two totally different mechanisms


Why in the world do you say that? The mechanism is the continent moving. If a subduction zone is moving, the same tension is being put on the strike-slip. The forces at play are kinda big.
I don't know much about Bastardi, except that Fox News apparently likes him as do many WU posters.

It is glaringly obvious from the up-thread quote by of Bastardi that he has either has difficulty comprehending the difference between correlation vs causality, or chooses to ignore it. He also displays a poor understanding of the difference between temperature and heat transfer/storage. Some of the heat of global warming is manifested in other sinks in the biosphere, most significantly the hydrosphere. A simple, narrow focus on lower atmosphere temperatures as the sole indicator of GW without considering the masking effect of exogeneous factors indicates a very poor understanding of climate science. Bastardi's understanding of climate science seems to be extremely flawed when compared with Dr. Masters comprehensive knowledge of both meteorology and climate science.

Quoting Skeptical Science:

Removing other Exogeneous Factors

In addition to removing the ENSO signlal, Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) used multiple linear regression to remove the effects of solar and volcanic activity from the surface and lower troposphere temperature data.

When removing these short-term effects, the warming trend has barely even slowed since 1998 (0.163°C per decade from 1979 through 2010, vs. 0.155°C per decade from 1998 through 2010, and 0.187°C per decade for 2000 through 2010).



Figure 6: Average of all five data sets (GISS, NCDC, HadCRU, UAH, and RSS) with the effects of ENSO, solar irradiance, and volcanic emissions removed (Foster and Rahmstorf 2011)

Quoting yoboi:



what is the flavor they pushing this week???
The "Kori" flavor, my very own brand. Home office agreed to start mass producing it worldwide.
857. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
If the earth were rapidly cooling--which it most definitely is not--the one proven method by which we could warm it back up just as rapdily would be to synthesize and pump more than 3.4 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere every hour of every day. There's virtually no doubt among scientists that that has, and would, do the trick....


have you ever taken the time to determine how much co2 ya push into the atmosphere????
Quoting hydrus:
Both those faults are potentially devastating. They have been relatively inactive, and I pray that it continues that way.


Well, mainly cause it wouldn't take a real big one to do a lot of damage there. England had a small one in the S/E a number of years back, like 4.9 or something...and it did a lot of damage just because buildings here are NOT made for earthquakes! What is shocking, is italy...the one they had there where the geologists were prosecuted..they should have prosecuted the government for not bringing in retro-fitting codes for an earthquake prone country! That was a relatively mild quake to do so much damage...and convict the geologists, oh dear.

There have been a few 4 or 5's in N Wales in the last 30 years...and the thought of such a small one scares me because of the buildings here. Would just hope it was deep one to compensate! I have told my daughter if there ever was one, to just get under her tall bed...as the biggest risk is the chimney falling in.
859. yoboi
Quoting Xulonn:
I don't know much about Bastardi, except that Fox News apparently likes him as do many WU posters.

It is glaringly obvious from the up-thread quote by of Bastardi that he has either has difficulty comprehending the difference between correlation vs causality, or chooses to ignore it. He also displays a poor understanding of the difference between temperature and heat transfer/storage. Some of the heat of global warming is manifested in other sinks in the biosphere, most significantly the hydrosphere. A simple, narrow focus on lower atmosphere temperatures as the sole indicator of GW without considering the masking effect of exogeneous factors indicates a very poor understanding of climate science. Bastardi's understanding of climate science seems to be extremely flawed when compared with Dr. Masters comprehensive knowledge of both meteorology and climate science.






how old is that graph?
Hate to break it to you disaster-hungry folk, but I think the 7.7 in BC during Hurricane Sandy was 'the event' for the west coast of North America for the time being.

Quoting wxgeek723:
Hate to break it to you disaster-hungry folk
Speculation = disaster craving?
Sometimes, I like to sit in my refrigerator and pretend I'm Milk.
Since the Atlantic seems like it wants to quit (finally), I suppose I'll resume work on my TCRs tonight, starting with Beryl (I only did the actual storm histories, not the more intricate aspects like intensity and pressure). Still a long ways to go!*

*Also not gonna paraphrase the TCRs the NHC has already done like I did last year.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I remember a 5.2 quake from Wabash Vally Fault in Illinois few years ago, but I didn't feel that one. I never felt an quake until the one that shook DC area.


I felt one a couple of years ago that was beneath St. Louis. Woke me up, rattled the windows.

Edit: windows, not winds, been trying to type to fast recently. Not working out to well.
Quoting KoritheMan:

The "Kori" flavor, my very own brand. Home office agreed to start mass producing it worldwide.

Why have I not seen it when I go to Walmart then?
Quoting AttackOfTheRevenge:
Sometimes, I like to sit in my refrigerator and pretend I'm Milk.


Suddenly thirsty, ....
867. yoboi
Quoting KoritheMan:

The "Kori" flavor, my very own brand. Home office agreed to start mass producing it worldwide.



sure it will be made in china....
868. wxmod
Quoting wxgeek723:
Hate to break it to you disaster-hungry folk, but I think the 7.7 in BC during Hurricane Sandy was 'the event' for the west coast of North America for the time being.


I'm not "hungry" for disaster. I suggest that everyone on the west coast should at least have a flashlight, a few gallons of water and a few snack bars.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Since the Atlantic seems like it wants to quit (finally), I suppose I'll resume work on my TCRs tonight, starting with Beryl (I only did the actual storm histories, not the more intricate aspects like intensity and pressure). Still a long ways to go!*

*Also not gonna paraphrase the TCRs the NHC has already done like I did last year.

I am doing a spin-off of TCR's this year, called TCS's(Tropical Cyclone Summaries). It is not like an official TCR but it goes over what happened and why. Mine will be finished hopefully after winter break, if I do heavy work during my breaks. Most likely they will be done in January or February.
Yoboi - I added the caption to the graph with the year of publication - 2011.
871. wxmod
Quoting TomballTXPride:

What if I don't have or want kids?


Then you must go to work in the oil fields.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1026 PM AST WED NOV 14 2012

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
PUERTO RICO AND USVI THIS EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN SPOTTY
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE CIMMS-MIMIC PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 15 KTS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. 18Z GFS
MOVES THIS WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH SECTIONS OF PR. CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE POP`S IN FEW ZONES.
Quoting KoritheMan:

The "Kori" flavor, my very own brand. Home office agreed to start mass producing it worldwide.

I tasted the Kori flavor. It was disgusting..
Quoting pottery:

"Eternity"....

that's what I heard anyway.

I thought that was a perfume
875. yoboi
Quoting Xulonn:
Yoboi - I added the caption to the graph with the year of publication - 2011.



thanks did not see it...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I tasted the Kori flavor. It had an awful taste....


Cold.... xD
877. yoboi
Quoting Xulonn:
Yoboi - I added the caption to the graph with the year of publication - 2011.



if the graph holds true we should see a drop coming soon...
Quoting TomballTXPride:

My experience on here tells me that if it's not 100% burning of the fossil fuels fault, then it ain't being bought. Never mind the sun or any of the other dozen reasons that could explain it. Even de-forestation which is man-made. Forget it. It's not fossil fuels.

I think some would be better off just accepting the fact that they are likely not going away anytime soon, whether or not it's having an impact on the climate or not.


%u201CWe tried fitting the shape to simple math functions (exponentials, polynomials), to solar activity and even to rising functions like world population. By far the best match was to the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide, measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice.%u201D - Richard Muller, ex climate change denier turned supporter after he did the research himself. Link
quake doom monitor

The earth has the DT's everyday, some days more than others

Link

Quoting wxchaser97:

Why have I not seen it when I go to Walmart then?
Correction: they are releasing it tomorrow.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I tasted the Kori flavor. It was disgusting..
You mean it was too good for you? I know.
Quoting KoritheMan:

You mean it was too good for you? I know.

No, I mean it was absolutely disgusting. Worse than eggnog..
Quoting KoritheMan:

Correction: they are releasing it tomorrow.

I can wait..
Quoting KoritheMan:

You mean it was too good for you? I know.

No that is not it, it can't be good.
884. yoboi
Quoting Naga5000:


%u201CWe tried fitting the shape to simple math functions (exponentials, polynomials), to solar activity and even to rising functions like world population. By far the best match was to the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide, measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice.%u201D - Richard Muller, ex climate change denier turned supporter after he did the research himself. Link



did he do this research after watts cut funding off to him???
885. wxmod
'Airport clouds' covering several states in the eastern USA. MODIS today

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, I mean it was absolutely disgusting. Worse than eggnog..


You have this backwards. Eggnog is one of the most delicious drinks out there.
Quoting yoboi:



did he do this research after watts cut funding off to him???

Read the article, this research was mainly funded by the Koch brothers through UC Berkley.
888. yoboi
Quoting Naga5000:

Read the article, this research was mainly funded by the Koch brothers through UC Berkley.


i know who funded it was asking was it done after watts cut funding to him...
Quoting yoboi:


i know who funded it was asking was it done after watts cut funding to him...


What are you implying? I really wish you would just say what you are thinking instead of playing 20 questions.
890. beell
Quoting Astrometeor:


You have this backwards. Eggnog is one of the most delicious drinks out there.


Chickens don't much care for it...
891. yoboi
Quoting Naga5000:


What are you implying? I really wish you would just say what you are thinking instead of playing 20 questions.


i only asked 1 question.....there is more to the story than your putting out there....
Quoting yoboi:


i only asked 1 question.....there is more to the story than your putting out there....


What do you think that is? Please just get it out.
893. yoboi
Quoting Naga5000:


What do you think that is? Please just get it out.


he did the research after watts cut funding.....that's all.. but i think we are both smart enough to see the big picture....
894. wxmod
China and India, aerosol overlay. MODIS satellite image today.


Quoting yoboi:


he did the research after watts cut funding.....that's all.. but i think we are both smart enough to see the big picture....


So you are claiming a professor of physics at UC Berkeley falsified data over a funding cut? What a joke...you don't have much of a clue of how academia works do you?
896. yoboi
Quoting Naga5000:


So you are claiming a professor of physics at UC Berkeley falsified data over a funding cut? What a joke...you don't have much of a clue of how academia works do you?


i never claimed that, you are implying words i never said....
Quoting yoboi:


i never claimed that, you are implying words i never said....


"he did the research after watts cut funding.....that's all.. but i think we are both smart enough to see the big picture...." - your quote

What is it you are trying to say then? Spit it out.
898. yoboi
Quoting Naga5000:


"he did the research after watts cut funding.....that's all.. but i think we are both smart enough to see the big picture...." - your quote

What is it you are trying to say then? Spit it out.




that he did the research after funding was cut...
Quoting yoboi:




that he did the research after funding was cut...


and that means what? You have a conclusion; spit it out. If you don't, stop with the coy little jibes.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Speculation = disaster craving?


Tell me something Kori. Where do you live? Would an earthquake on the West Coast affect you in any direct way?
Quoting yoboi:




that he did the research after funding was cut...


Meaning what? Why does it matter?
Quoting Naga5000:


So you are claiming a professor of physics at UC Berkeley falsified data over a funding cut? What a joke...you don't have much of a clue of how academia works do you?
How do you get there...from here?
Quoting yoboi:


he did the research after watts cut funding.....that's all.. but i think we are both smart enough to see the big picture....


LMAO. Was gonna ask you a question about the graph at comment 855, Naga5000, but at this point I'll just say thanks for spelling "Berkeley" correctly in your last comment.

Good night, One and All.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
How do you get there...from here?


LMAO. Was gonna ask you a question about the graph, Naga5000, but at this point I'll just say thanks for spelling "Berkeley" correctly in your last comment.

Good night, One and All.


Not much of a leap of logic considering. Obviously he is trying to relate the cutting of funding to something, otherwise it's just a pointless statement. Also, nothing else to do than attack someone on a typo. GG.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Tell me something Kori. Where do you live? Would an earthquake on the West Coast affect you in any direct way?

Let's just say they won't and he has been hit by some bad hurricanes.
Quoting Naga5000:


Not much of a leap of logic considering. Nice try.
No logic involved. LOLOL. Thanks for the chuckle. LOL. I'm still laughin'.

Quoting wxgeek723:


Tell me something Kori. Where do you live? Would an earthquake on the West Coast affect you in any direct way?
Louisiana.
Quoting wxmod:
'Airport clouds' covering several states in the eastern USA. MODIS today





I see a rodent...
Quoting Naga5000:


Not much of a leap of logic considering. Obviously he is trying to relate the cutting of funding to something, otherwise it's just a pointless statement. Also, nothing else to do than attack someone on a typo. GG.
Didn't attack anyone (but I see you added one to your comment). (edit) That's the first time I've seen the CA "Berkeley" spelled correctly on this board in many a moon. Couldn't even tell you how many or who misspelled it.

Types like you actually keep folks from understanding stuff like that graph. So be it. I see your second illogic and raise you an ignore button.
Hi guys...

look at this stunning pic from Australia total eclipse...NASA

i might use it as my desktop picture
12ZCMC showing the next low starting subtropical & moving more tropical as it deepens. Click pic to see sst which are kinda cool for all that, 23-25C.



Large with a large blocking high to the north..
Quoting sullivanweather:




I see a rodent...


I think those clouds.. look like clouds.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hi guys...

look at this stunning pic from Australia total eclipse...NASA

i might use it as my desktop picture


Thanks for sharing this. I found a large version of the photo here:

Link
18zGFS


Quoting sullivanweather:




I see a rodent...


I see the gerbil.

I love eggnog too
Shelter from the Storm

Bruce’s ingenious design of covering our glass-fronted Bay-front house with upturned decks is still working. Here’s how I covered up for Hurricane Sandy. Hope I don’t need to use it often.
–Nancy Bauer, Deale

Editor’s note: Nancy’s deceased husband Bruce Bauer wrote about his ingenious design in Bay Weekly back in the last century.


Quoting AussieStorm:

Did i say that, I said the insults need to stop. It's like friggin school yard in here.
Debating is fine but arguing is not. It's like whoever can shout the loudest winds. It's all about getting ones point across not who can shout the loudest. The good thing i see about the AGW/CC debate is people are seriously looking at other ways to create energy from other sources other than oil and coal. The faster we faze these two out the better for the whole planet. but of course it need to be financially viable from 3rd grade countries to 1st grade countries. What's the point of 1st grade countries cleaning up there act if the 2nd and 3rd grade countries don't. That would be like plugging a whole in a dam when it's abut to over-top.

I'll repost this. Note that the US is the third most populous nation.

Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but the plate at the San Andreas fault is moving north/south. The Asian boundary of the ring of fire is expanding east/west..the opening fissure creating islands. That kind of plate boundary will create more big quakes I think. Slip faults are worst for big quakes, but where the crust is opening up and creating new land is still most active. I spent half my life trying to move from earthquake zones! LOL Though, can still get hit with mid-continental stress!

The San Andreas Fault is a strike-slip fault. The Asian zone of the Pacific ring of fire is a subduction area, which means 1 plate is riding over another and it pushes that one down. The mega quake off Japan in March 2011 was a result of the top plate flexing/bouncing back after being pulled down by the sub-ducting plate called a mega-thrust quake. Similar to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake which was also a mega-thrust quake. The difference is the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake ruptured a long a 1000km-1300km length of the fault. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake ruptured along about 500km's of the fault. There is still another 1500km's of the Tohoku fault to rupture both north and south of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture zone. There is another dangerous area that has not gone off for a long time and is actually gone over the expected time, that's the Cascadia subduction zone, which is off the west-coast of the Pacific Northwest from northern California to Vancouver Island, British Columbia. On the east coast there is the Atlantic ridge that runs from north to south and can be clearly seen on google earth, the plates there are spreading apart.



Quoting Skyepony:
Shelter from the Storm

Bruce’s ingenious design of covering our glass-fronted Bay-front house with upturned decks is still working. Here’s how I covered up for Hurricane Sandy. Hope I don’t need to use it often.
–Nancy Bauer, Deale

Editor’s note: Nancy’s deceased husband Bruce Bauer wrote about his ingenious design in Bay Weekly back in the last century.




Thr decking must be hinged at the bottom so it can be lifted up next to the house .. good idea ...
Quoting bappit:

I'll repost this. Note that the US is the third most populous nation.


Also note many countries are white. Take in Asia and Africa for example.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Also note many countries are white. Take in Asia and Africa for example.


South America too.
HOUSTON/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - BP Plc is expected to pay a record criminal penalty and plead guilty to criminal misconduct in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster through a plea agreement it has reached with the U.S. Department of Justice that may be announced as soon as Thursday, according to sources familiar with discussions.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 02-20122013
10:00 AM RET November 15 2012
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1004 hPa) located at 9.6S 71.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D 0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.9S 68.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 10.0S 66.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 9.7S 62.7E - 24 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================
Vertical wind shear has decreased since yesterday over the disturbed weather area monitored since a few days ago. System has organized and deep convective activity keeps on persisting near the center since 1600 PM UTC. It presents now a curved band pattern (refer to 2243 PM UTC, F17 0116 AM UTC, WINDSAT 0123 AM UTC, and F18 0329 AM UTC).

OSCAT 1856 PM UTC and partial covered ASCAT 0512 AM UTC swath confirms that near gale force winds 30 knots exists in the southern semi-circle.

A weak to moderate wind shear window is expected to keep on persisting up to 1200 PM UTC before east northeasterly upper level winds strengthen back. Despite the indirect equatorward low level inflow and an only sustained poleward one, system is expected to deepen into a tropical depression stage within the next night (a more rapid intensification is however not excluded)

Current intensity of the system does not justify issuance of regular advisory
Good morning/evening all. It's 39 degrees with a windchill of 33. I may have to turn on the heat if it doesn't warm up in a day or two.
Good Morning Folks..7-day for the Tampa Bay area......
wonder why the president does not trust oil companies? bp gulf most likely
This is an apology to Koritheman.

Last eve I posted a comment that was uncalled for.
It was a cheap-shot, knee-jerk reaction to one of his posts that I didn't agree with. I regret it, and I am sorry.
I read your blog, Kori. You do a good job with it and you bring alot of positives to this place.
Sincerely
Doug

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning/evening all. It's 39 degrees with a windchill of 33. I may have to turn on the heat if it doesn't warm up in a day or two.
good morning..IF it was 39 here by me..the heat would already be on LOL..stay warm up there
It's getting colder instead of warmer, now down to 36 from 39. The sun needs to come up and the dang smoke detector needs to stop beeping! Gave it a new battery yesterday and at three am this morning it started again. It's the one in my bedroom, and after my house fire two years ago, I can't find the words of what it does to me to wake up to it!
not so warm in texas today...............
Everyone have a great Thursday!
Tomorrow looks to be a very dangerous day for parts of Western Queensland, The BOM have issued a severe fire weather warning.

FIRE WEATHER WARNING
for the Channel Country, Maranoa and Warrego and parts of the North West,
Central West and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.
Issued at 6:55pm EST on Thursday the 15th of November 2012
for Friday.

A trough extending across northern South Australia and northern New South Wales is moving slowly in an eastwards direction. The trough is expected to continue moving eastwards on Friday and enter southwest Queensland during the day. Hot, dry and gusty winds associated with the trough are expected to cause the following conditions on Friday:

Extreme Fire Danger in southern parts of the Channel Country and southwest parts of the Maranoa and Warrego districts, particularly during the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures up to 41 degrees, relative humidity to less than 10% and winds between 40 to 45 km/hr are expected. Locations which may be affected include Thargomindah and Cunnamulla.

Severe Fire Danger in remaining parts of the Channel Country, Maranoa and Warrego, southern parts of the Northwest, southwest parts of the Central West and southwest parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.
Temperatures up to 43 degrees(109F), relative humidity down to 10% and winds to 35km/hr(22mph) are expected.


The next warning will be issued at 11pm AEST.



hi guys...

awesome dy today for me here
Gloomy again today --- cool with a fine blowing mist. Ready to see a little blue sky and sunshine! Have a great Thursday!
938. beell
.
surfline just posted their surf report for this winter on the north shores of the haw. calling for a slightly better than average 6/10.
whats interesting is the storms are forecast to be slightly further away from the islands than usual which to me as a washed up surfer means cleaner conditions surfing is big money now alot depends on whether they get waves or not these next few months. and dont forget they have the Eddie at waimea bay which needs at least 20ft to run. a rare event some yrs
941. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


and that means what? You have a conclusion; spit it out. If you don't, stop with the coy little jibes.



i don't have a conclusion was just making a simple statement.....just like we are 16 trillion in debt is a simple statement.....

Since he's living in the NE I shouldn't have been so surprised that Trey Anastasio's latest album has so many mentions of extreme weather & climate change. Valentine official video..
hey guys just popping in to say hello
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
________________________________


California storm



click it for bigger size
Corps of Engineers works with N.Y. Dept. of Sanitation in Hurricane Sandy debris removal

Hey wunderkid..
946. yoboi
Quoting aislinnpaps:
It's getting colder instead of warmer, now down to 36 from 39. The sun needs to come up and the dang smoke detector needs to stop beeping! Gave it a new battery yesterday and at three am this morning it started again. It's the one in my bedroom, and after my house fire two years ago, I can't find the words of what it does to me to wake up to it!


make sure you have it placed in the correct location is it near a fan, vent, steam???? to be really safe you should have them ran in seris with electricty with a battery backup....remember smoke detectors save lifes....
Paul McCartney, Kanye West, The Who, Alicia Keys to perform at Sandy relief concert
12-12-12:
The Concert for Sandy Relief will also feature performances by Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band, Roger Waters, Jon Bon Jovi, Billy Joel & more

Jobless claims soar after Hurricane Sandy
Storm damage boosts requests for benefits by 78,000 to 439,000
Aislinnpaps, maybe it's just time for a new one, they are not expensive and as yoboi points out, they save lives. Don't play around with this. By the way, where are you located?
What this blog needs is a good storm to track.Tomorrow is Friday thank goodness and I still have a little faith that we here in D.C will see a small to moderate snow event.Currently calling for about a 60% chance of that happening.
THANKSGIVING COUNTDOWN.
_____________________________________

6
DAYS
14 :
HR
12 :
MIN
20
SEC
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
THANKSGIVING COUNTDOWN.
_____________________________________

Looking at the latest models, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hurricane season is probably over. No models show any development, and the GFS has dropped development through 384 hours, which puts us in December.

That would put the seasonal stats at
19-10-1, with >55 billion dollars in damages, mostly from Sandy and some from Isaac.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season is the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded, tied with last year, 2011, 2010, 1995, and 1887. This is the only time in recorded history that there have been three consecutive seasons with more than 16 named storms. This operates under the assumption that there will be no more named storms this season, or named storms declared in the post season.

This season began very early and was unusual from the start, with for the first time since 1908 we saw two storms develop before June, and even more unusual with the fact that we were at Debby by June. However, no storms developed in July. The assumption was at the beginning of August that we would only have 12 named storms this year at least, this turned out to be completely wrong.

Odds are that Hurricane Sandy will probably be upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, and possibly even Hurricane Gordon, so I will hold off on commenting on the low amount of major hurricanes compared to seasonal activity. It is slightly possible that Beryl will be upgraded to a hurricane upon landfall in Florida, though there is little evidence to do so other than some high SFMR reports.

That would put the seasonal total more like 19-10-3 with two additional major hurricanes.

The 'it only takes one' factor came into play this year with devastating results. Hurricane Sandy became the 2nd most destructive hurricane to ever hit the United States with over 50 billion dollars in damages, well over Ike and Andrew's totals.

The names to be retired this year is Sandy, and probably Isaac (2 billion dollars in damages to Louisiana).

We have only 15 days left in the season, so here's to a peaceful post-season after the season ends, and to a wonderful Thanksgiving and Christmas.
We have only 15 days left in the season, so here's to a peaceful post-season after the season ends, and to a wonderful Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Thanks Teddy, same to you sir!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Also note many countries are white. Take in Asia and Africa for example.

That is 2000 data. You can see the 2009 data in Wikipedia. Also it excludes CO2 from land use changes, a biggie.
I'm giving Issac about a 30% chance of being retired.Dolly in 2008 caused nearly as much and wasn't retired.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6
DAYS
14 :
HR
12 :
MIN
20
SEC


its 7 for me
I suppose it's possible that Sandy's extraordinarily large size was merely just a "freak of nature". By that same token, of course, I also suppose this summer's record low Arctic sea ice was a "freak of nature". And the current record low global ice area is a "freak of nature". And the fact that this year has been the warmest ever recorded in the U.S. was a "freak of nature". And last year's monstrous tornado outbreaks--the three largest ever in the U.S.--were just "freaks of nature". And the bizarre Russian heat wave of 2010 (the deepest in at least 1,000 years) was a "freak of nature". And this summer's Greenland melt was a "freak of nature". And this past spring's very anomalous U.S. heat wave was a "freak of nature". And the fact that 2010 was the wettest year ever for the planet was a "freak of nature". And the fact that four of Philadelphia's ten largest snowfalls ever took place between December 2009 and January 2011 was a "freak of nature". And the largest-ever wildfires for New Mexico and Arizona that occurred over the past two summers were just "freaks of nature". And last year's deepest-ever drought in Mexico was a "freak of nature". And this year's TS Beryl, the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make landfall in the U.S. before the official start of hurricane season, was a "freak of nature". And last year's unprecedented rainfall in Columbia--that nation's heaviest ever--was but a "freak of nature". And the formation of Cat 4 EPac Hurricane Kenneth in November, by far the strongest ever in that region so late in the year, was a "freak of nature". And the January, 2010, low pressure system in the U.S. Southwest, the most powerful one on record, was a "freak of nature"...

And so on. My, but that's a lot of freaks. In fact, that's more freaks than you'd find on a 19th-century circus midway. And one can't help but wonder what could possibly be making them occur. Some claim it's just coincidence, but I'm not so sure...
luvtogolf
Basterdi comment...

"Anthropogenic global warming activists claim that all extreme weather events are somehow related to %u201Cglobal warming,%u201D which has been re-termed %u201Cclimate change%u201D since global temperatures are no longer warming. The FACT remains that global tropical activity, which can be measured using the ACE Index (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), is near record lows according to peer-reviewed research and even the most recent UN IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX 2012)."



Take the above statement from Basterdi to show that is incorrectly correlating two pieces of information here. I am assuming that the ACE does not take into account all transferred heat processes with thin the earths system. Cyclones are just one component of that. Global ACE output is only calculated from Tropical Systems ONLY or rare hybrids! It does not take into account the massive mid latitude storms that batter Alaska, the Northeast, and Europe.

Or a winter storm like this in 2006.



All low pressure systems release heat, not just tropical ones.

Look here at where the anomalies are showing up in the Ocean Temperatures. I am just using a September analog to show a point, every month anomalies change from place to place, but the the most overwhelming signal where I see warming taking place is not in tropical origins but rather the mid latitude and poles. Siberia, the Arctic, and Northern Europe all between 3 and 5 degrees Celsius where most tropical areas see between 1 and 1.5 degree Celsius at the most. Think about where we have been seeing the strange weather.



It's been in and around the Northern Jet Stream where Extra Tropical processes I think have been intensified not the tropical ones. And that is just sitting back and looking at the big picture. Just my humble opinion.

Now think how Sandy transitioned to an extra tropical storm and what anomalies that were present that would have gave her an extra boost?