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Sandy the 11th U.S. billion-dollar disaster of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012

Devastating Hurricane Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report. This puts 2012 in second place for most U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters behind 2011, when NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) counted fourteen such disasters. AON Benfield rated seventeen events as billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011, so the actual number of such disasters has considerable uncertainty depending upon who is doing the estimates. NCDC has not yet released their official figures for 2012's billion-dollar weather disasters, and we might expect that their total could be 20% lower than AON Benfield's, judging by what happened in 2011. This would give 2012 nine billion-dollar weather disasters, which would still put 2011 in second place for most billion-dollar weather disasters. Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer.


Figure 1. The escalators down to the South Ferry subway station in Lower Manhattan's Financial District lie flooded in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's storm surge on October 29, 2012. Total economic damage from Hurricane Sandy has been estimated at $30 - $50 billion by EQECAT. Image credit: New York MTA and Associated Press.


Figure 2. The U.S. has experienced eleven weather-related disasters costing at least $1 billion in 2012, according to data taken from the AON Benfield October 2012 Catastrophe Report. AON Benfield has not made a damage estimate for the 2012 Midwest drought, but according to National Crop Insurance Services, crop insurance losses alone will total $20 billion. The total cost of the drought could be more than $77 billion, said Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. As Nick Sundt of the WWF summarizes in a nice blog post, this year will probably be the second most costly year since 1980 in terms of billion-dollar weather-related disasters.


Figure 3. Number of weather-related U.S. billion-dollar disasters per year (blue bars) from 1980 - 2012, and the total cost of these disasters (red and dark blue lines, with the red line showing the inflation-adjusted costs.) Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Winter Storm Brutus bringing blizzard conditions to Montana
Winter Storm Brutus is bringing blizzard conditions to Northeast Montana, with heavy snow and high winds that have gusted to 45 mph. Brutus has dumped a widespread area of 4 - 6 inches of snow over large portions of Montana since Thursday afternoon, with 7 - 10 inches reported in the Great Falls area and 17" in the mountains near Glacier National Park. According to the Glasgow, MT NWS Facebook page, the current storm has the potential to be a top-ten snowfall event for the area, with records going back 115 years. The storm will affect Montana and western North Dakota through Saturday morning, then push north-northeastwards into Canada.

Top ten 2-day snow events in Glasgow, Montana history:

1 15.0" 4/18/1896
2 14.3" 12/27/2003
3 14.1" 4/ 3/1940, 4/ 2/1940
5 14.0" 11/19/1941
6 13.4" 10/13/2008
7 13.3" 11/ 6/2000
8 13.0" 10/12/2008, 4/ 9/1995, 1/26/1916

The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet
There are still three weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, and the way this year has gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 20th named storm--Tropical Storm Valerie--sometime this month. One potential candidate is a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms that has developed about 800 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa. However, wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and any development should be slow. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, do not develop the disturbance, and show it drifting slowly to the northwest over the next few days. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning.

A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week.

Jeff Masters

Extreme Weather Brutus

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters
Thank Doc.
Thanks Doc . Them winter storms keep a coming
A study by the scientists, published recently in the journal Scientific Reports, suggests the cause was a change in the direction of the Gulf Stream, the current that ferries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Atlantic and along the U.S. East Coast. The scientists found that the center, or core, of the Gulf Stream was diverted as much as 125 miles (200 kilometers) to the north of its average position, according to a WHOI statement.
Thanks Dr. Masters....Good morning fellow bloggers!
Thank you Dr. Masters
Great photo of the subway. Wow. Thanks for the update.
Thank you Dr Masters.
Rather than retiring names of winter storms, can we just retire the idea of naming winter storms. I mean, Winter Storm Nemo? Really?

Athena -- The Greek goddess of wisdom, courage, inspirations, justice, mathematics and all things wonderful

Brutus -- Roman Senator and best known assassin of Julius
Caesar -- Title used by Roman and Byzantine Emperors 

Draco -- The first legislator of Athens in Ancient
Euclid -- A mathematician in Ancient Greece, the Father of Geometry
Freyr -- A Norse god associated with fair weather, among other things

Gandolf -- A character in a 1896 fantasy novel in a pseudo-medieval countryside

Helen – In Greek mythology, Helen of Troy was the daughter of Zeus

Iago -- Enemy of Othello in Shakespeare’s play, Othello

Jove -- The English name for Jupiter, the Roman god of light and sky.

Kahn -- Mongolian conqueror and emperor of the Mongol Empire

Luna -- The divine embodiment of the moon in Roman mythology

Magnus -- The Father of Europe, Charlemagne the Great, in Latin: Carolus Magnus 

Nemo -- A Greek boy’s name meaning “from the valley”, means “nobody” in Latin 

Orko -- The thunder god in Basque mythology

Plato -- Greek philosopher and mathematician, who was named by his wrestling coach

Q -- The Broadway Express subway line in New York City

Rocky -- A single mountain in the Rockies

Saturn -- Roman god of time, among other things who had a planet named after him

Triton -- In Greek mythology, the messenger of the deep sea, son of Poseidon

Ukko -- In Finnish mythology, the god of the sky and weather

Virgil -- One of ancient Rome’s greatest poets

Walda -- Name from Old German meaning “ruler”

Xerxes -- The fourth king of the Persian Achaemenid Empire, Xerxes the Great

Yogi -- People who do yoga

Zeus -- In Greek mythology, the supreme ruler of Mount Olympus and the gods who lived there
Thanks Dr. Masters,
The GFS model developing the low pressure between Bermuda and Puerto Rico gets my vote as the last storm of the year..
Shear outlook for the area off the Cape Verda Islands looks strong and shear predictions this year seem to be pretty well spot on..
Sooo many Billion dollar disasters..
Wow..It used to be millions was the norm..
More must be done in diasater prevention IMO..
I'm reminded of a quote from Benjamin Franklin..
"By failing to prepare,you are preparing to fail"
Thanks again Dr. Masters
"There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer."

The above quote from Dr. Masters blog post is making a great point.


i want to see side by side lists of classification criteria for the two following events:
Hurricane
Winter Storm
Can someone fill in the blanks? maybe that will calm my sense of disgust about y'all know what...
Quoting 900MB:
Rather than retiring names of winter storms, can we just retire the idea of naming winter storms. I mean, Winter Storm Nemo? Really?

Athena -- The Greek goddess of wisdom, courage, inspirations, justice, mathematics and all things wonderful

Brutus -- Roman Senator and best known assassin of Julius
Caesar -- Title used by Roman and Byzantine Emperors 

Draco -- The first legislator of Athens in Ancient
Euclid -- A mathematician in Ancient Greece, the Father of Geometry
Freyr -- A Norse god associated with fair weather, among other things

Gandolf -- A character in a 1896 fantasy novel in a pseudo-medieval countryside

Helen – In Greek mythology, Helen of Troy was the daughter of Zeus

Iago -- Enemy of Othello in Shakespeare’s play, Othello

Jove -- The English name for Jupiter, the Roman god of light and sky.

Kahn -- Mongolian conqueror and emperor of the Mongol Empire

Luna -- The divine embodiment of the moon in Roman mythology

Magnus -- The Father of Europe, Charlemagne the Great, in Latin: Carolus Magnus 

Nemo -- A Greek boy’s name meaning “from the valley”, means “nobody” in Latin 

Orko -- The thunder god in Basque mythology

Plato -- Greek philosopher and mathematician, who was named by his wrestling coach

Q -- The Broadway Express subway line in New York City

Rocky -- A single mountain in the Rockies

Saturn -- Roman god of time, among other things who had a planet named after him

Triton -- In Greek mythology, the messenger of the deep sea, son of Poseidon

Ukko -- In Finnish mythology, the god of the sky and weather

Virgil -- One of ancient Rome’s greatest poets

Walda -- Name from Old German meaning “ruler”

Xerxes -- The fourth king of the Persian Achaemenid Empire, Xerxes the Great

Yogi -- People who do yoga

Zeus -- In Greek mythology, the supreme ruler of Mount Olympus and the gods who lived there



Gandalf, Yogi, and Rocky to me are even more embarrassing...


Unlike some here, I have not expressed my lack of enthusiasm for TWC naming winter storms because I simply have a strange criticism of TWC in general. In, fact, I myself have always been confused why their is a collective criticism for the TWC here, because I have always thought they were pretty solid overall. However, this recent decision of naming winter storms I am quite embarrassed by, especially the choices for names. I was embarrassed to have the channel on yesterday with my family in the room as TWC was reporting on "Brutus" bringing snow to Montana. In my opinion it stoops the network to lower than what I've always known them to be.


Quoting Minnemike:
i want to see side by side lists of classification criteria for the two following events:
Hurricane
Winter Storm
Can someone fill in the blanks? maybe that will calm my sense of disgust about y'all know what...



my thoughts exactly :)
It's a very nice and cool day here in Jamaica.
Quoting Jedkins01:
"There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer."

The above quote from Dr. Masters blog post is making a great point.



Jed ~ You make a nice point. We need to strip this puppy down to the bare bones to really look at the issue at hand. However, I would still like to shed a little light on why perhaps the billion dollar disaster stat is not necessarily the most accurate assessment on determining the percentage man is contributing to the number extreme events we've been seeing.

When giant storms impact a region as densely populated as the Northeast, unfortunately a billion dollar disaster is almost a given.

Population density. Top map is NY and NJ. Bottom map is TX.

">

Let's go Median Home Value now. Top map NY, NJ. Bottom map is area hurricane Ike impacted back in 2008.







Congrats, Dr. Masters, on the NBC News interview. Or maybe I should congratulate NBC News for their "get"!
Can't wait to see the reaction on the blog here after your climate change talk!
Quoting the good doctor:
"and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change"
Seems to me that is one more signal of AGW
Quoting Jedkins01:



Gandalf, Yogi, and Rocky to me are even more embarrassing...


Unlike some here, I have not expressed my lack of enthusiasm for TWC naming winter storms because I simply have a strange criticism of TWC in general. In, fact, I myself have always been confused why their is a collective criticism for the TWC here, because I have always thought they were pretty solid overall. However, this recent decision of naming winter storms I am quite embarrassed by, especially the choices for names. I was embarrassed to have the channel on yesterday with my family in the room as TWC was reporting on "Brutus" bringing snow to Montana. In my opinion it stoops the network to lower than what I've always known them to be.




Yogi might work for Yellowstone, and Rocky, a Philadelphia storm for sure.
@ #11:

Couldn't agree more with you, 900MB!!
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters
Insurance companies are going to love these statistics..
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Jed ~ You make a nice point. We need to strip this puppy down to the bare bones to really look at the issue at hand. However, I would still like to shed a little light on why perhaps the billion dollar disaster stat is not necessarily the most accurate assessment on determining the percentage man is contributing to the number extreme events we've been seeing.

When giant storms impact a region as densely populated as the Northeast, unfortunately a billion dollar disaster is almost a given.

Population density. Top map is NY and NJ. Bottom map is TX.

">

Let's go median household income now. Top map NY, NJ. Bottom map is area hurricane Ike impacted back in 2008.










Indeed, one must also consider as man continues to advance in technology and urban growth, damage amounts and total potential damage to be done will continue to increase. A 200 mph hurricane hitting Tampa Bay in the early 1900's wouldn't be as big of a deal as a category 1 hitting today in the same place. It's pretty simple.

Meteorology, is a growing field, and will continue to grow in the modern world because of this. What we have just discussed is part of the reason, the other reason is that in a modern world people demand and expect more and greater services. Knowing the weather properly is one of them. Also as technology increases, the tools meteorologists have at their disposal also improves thus another reason for the growth in meteorology.



The world is changing fast, by the time I'm 30, probably all children will need to take physics and calculus because society is becoming so technologically dependent. This will cause problems as not all people's brain is designed for such. Not everyone can be a tech geek, a scientist, or an engineer. I know many who struggle to even understand college Algebra, much less application of physics and calculus. The technology people use is quickly outpacing the average individuals understanding of where it came from and how it works. The future ahead will bring as many obstacles, what I have discussed is one that I think many have not considered.



Alright, yes my comment kind of strayed off topic, but, I just figured I'd mention some related things as well, lol.

Thanks Jeff...
Quoting 900MB:


Yogi might work for Yellowstone, and Rocky, a Philadelphia storm for sure.


hahaha :)
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Jed ~ You make a nice point. We need to strip this puppy down to the bare bones to really look at the issue at hand. However, I would still like to shed a little light on why perhaps the billion dollar disaster stat is not necessarily the most accurate assessment on determining the percentage man is contributing to the number extreme events we've been seeing.

When giant storms impact a region as densely populated as the Northeast, unfortunately a billion dollar disaster is almost a given.

Population density. Top map is NY and NJ. Bottom map is TX.

">

Let's go median household income now. Top map NY, NJ. Bottom map is area hurricane Ike impacted back in 2008.








There were also multiple warnings about the impact that a storm like Sandy would have on the northeast coast. I would think that individuals and state will would've learnt their lesson and make more preparation for future storms like Sandy. The state may very well need to implement no build zones in some of the major impact areas.
Finally got my beach pics up. Sandy brought us so much sand...millions of dollars of sand. She was so well named. I know she was hell on the NE~ but here, We got a hurricane day with little damage & all that beach renourishment. She did East Central Florida quite a bit of good.

The new tidal pool/trench is where the beach used to end & the ocean began. Sandy brought far more beach than I've ever seen in this area. Not only is the sand bar new, the old beach is ~five foot higher than it used to be. It used to be 9 stairs down to the beach here now it's only 4. Click on the pic to see the whole series. These were taken in Indialantic, FL on 11-4. Heard mass Sandy sand renourishment happened all the way south to Vero Beach. Not sure what the entire area of great benefit was. Seen nothing in the media about it other than the initial damage of 25mill & pics a few days before these of eroded beach even Indialantic, that looks nothing like it does now. As the storm left it pumped sand up as it moved out according to beach dwelling friends. Looks like the federal 25mill in sand money is still being asked for. They could use a bulldozer to do some rearranging & there will be some beach front claims but I don't know about 25million in federal sand money..

Dr. Masters,

In case the NBC interviewers ask about AGW and Sandy, here's some before and after data which shows that the Atlantic was rather warm before Sandy, then much cooler after:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/a nomw.10.25.2012.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/a nomw.10.29.2012.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/a nomw.11.1.2012.gif

Of course, all that extra warm water in the Gulf Stream couldn't possible have been caused by AGW, now could it?...:-)

Such an event occurred 12,800 years ago when a vast lake – created from melting glaciers at the end of last Ice Age – overflowed and poured into the north Atlantic, blocking the Gulf Stream. Europe froze – almost instantly, said Patterson.
Largo (and any others interested) 60 w/ 48 dew pt, 30.02 (slightly dropping) S winds @ 17, 21 gusts in S Central IL - late Indian Summer?
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Appropriate to be on NBC...
Quoting bjrabbit:
Appropriate to be on NBC...

I know right.
Quoting Skyepony:
Finally got my beach pics up. Sandy brought us so much sand...millions of dollars of sand. She was so well named. I know she was hell on the NE~ but here, We got a hurricane day with little damage & all that beach renourishment. She did East Central Florida quite a bit of good.

The new tidal pool/trench is where the beach used to end & the ocean began. Sandy brought far more beach than I've ever seen in this area. Not only is the sand bar new, the old beach is ~five foot higher than it used to be. It used to be 9 stairs down to the beach here now it's only 4. Click on the pic to see the whole series. These were taken in Indialantic, FL on 11-4. Heard mass Sandy sand renourishment happened all the way south to Vero Beach. Not sure what the entire area of great benefit was. Seen nothing in the media about it other than the initial damage of 25mill & pics a few days before these of eroded beach even Indialantic, that looks nothing like it does now. As the storm left it pumped sand up as it moved out according to beach dwelling friends. Looks like the federal 25mill in sand money is still being asked for. They could use a bulldozer to do some rearranging & there will be some beach front claims but I don't know about 25million in federal sand money..



Thanks for that Skye..
Great pics.. :)
Thank You Dr. Good luck this evening and have a good weekend..................

Will you be in your local NBC affiliate or flying in to NY to see some damage first hand?
Quoting EricGreen:
Dr. Masters,

In case the NBC interviewers ask about AGW and Sandy, here's some before and after data which shows that the Atlantic was rather warm before Sandy, then much cooler after:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/a nomw.10.25.2012.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/a nomw.10.29.2012.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2012/a nomw.11.1.2012.gif

Of course, all that extra warm water in the Gulf Stream couldn't possible have been caused by AGW, now could it?...:-)





Warm AMO?
Thanks Doc,

Good luck tonight.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Brutus? Really??

WU has totally sold out to TWC's marketing department. Sad to see such a great site go to crap so fast.

Not renewing this year if it keeps up.
Quoting riblet2000:
Brutus? Really??

WU has totally sold out to TWC's marketing department. Sad to see such a great site go to crap so fast.

Not renewing this year if it keeps up.


boo hoo. Go whine some more
What's the deal with some of you people about this whole TWC-naming-winter storms deal anyways? Because the NWS doesn't back it up? Who cares, I think it's a great idea. We named hurricanes starting in the 1950s, with names like Dog, Easy, Fox, etc. It gives us weather nerds something to track in the post-season. The fact that people are putting everyone who agrees with The Weather Channel, such as Dr. Masters, as drinking TWC's kool-aid is astoundingly stupid. If you want to leave, leave. Now, is TWC's decision a way to get views and increase interest in their shows? Certainly, that's called being a business. Get used to it, but I can tell you for a fact regardless of the name, people being affected by these storms could care less about what name is given to it.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What's the deal with some of you people about this whole TWC-naming-winter storms deal anyways? Because the NWS doesn't back it up? Who cares, I think it's a great idea. We named hurricanes starting in the 1950s, with names like Dog, Easy, Fox, etc. It gives us weather nerds something to track in the post-season. The fact that people are putting everyone who agrees with The Weather Channel, such as Dr. Masters, as drinking TWC's kool-aid is astoundingly stupid. If you want to leave, leave. Now, is TWC's decision a way to get views and increase interest in their shows? Certainly, that's called being a business. Get used to it, but I can tell you for a fact regardless of the name, people being affected by these storms could care less about what name is given to it.


I'm sure people bitched when they named hurricanes as well.

And I am sure if the weather channel was trying to boost thier ratings, it would be because they lost so much with thier crappy reality shows.
RE: post 45

I am so tired of Al Gore bashing. The photo wasn't amusing and neither are you. POOF!

Also, if I seem grumpy today - I am. :P

I've caught the flu, so I've got a 101 degree fever, chills, all the unpleasant stuff. I haven't gotten a flu shot in years!
Each storm is going to hit in a different place, at a different time, with different levels of development and redevelopment and the dollar will have variable value, so I get there is lots of noise in estimating damage value differences specifically from climate change.

BUT in the same way you can say more CO2 traps more heat due to physics, you can say warmer oceans have more energy to create stronger hurricanes. Ocean temperature data is pretty straight forward.

This morning I found good graphs that were ocean specific, here is an overall temp graphic.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst2/diagno stics/global/nh sh/annual_bar.png

if the ocean is 0.3F warmer due to climate change in the North Atlantic, there is over 1790 ktons of additional energy in the top 1.6 inches of the ocean (edit> under Sandy).
Or and 89.5% of an atom bombs worth of additional energy due to climate change in the top foot of water under Hurricane Sandy.

Storm diameter 1040miles = 23.668 trillion sq ft.
ocean temp up 0.3 F * 23.668 trillion sq ft = 7.1004 trillion BTU = 1,790 ktons.
1 gallon fills a sq ft to 1.6"

Does that sound like there is a possibility that the storm was not strengthened by the additional heat? and that extra speed, wave height, and rain just missed all the valuable parts of the east coast? Explain that to me.

You may want to revise the location and dates for Sandy's damage. It was not just the NE and not just on October 29th.

#45 I thought it was funny.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What's the deal with some of you people about this whole TWC-naming-winter storms deal anyways? Because the NWS doesn't back it up? Who cares, I think it's a great idea. We named hurricanes starting in the 1950s, with names like Dog, Easy, Fox, etc. It gives us weather nerds something to track in the post-season. The fact that people are putting everyone who agrees with The Weather Channel, such as Dr. Masters, as drinking TWC's kool-aid is astoundingly stupid. If you want to leave, leave. Now, is TWC's decision a way to get views and increase interest in their shows? Certainly, that's called being a business. Get used to it, but I can tell you for a fact regardless of the name, people being affected by these storms could care less about what name is given to it.
Because TWC isn't official and the storm list are ugly Greek names.

Matter of fact why won't people use my system?.The number system.

Here's how it works.The year and number.

Example:storm 1,012-13
the other storm 2,012-13 and so on and so on

there?.
Quoting DrMickey:
RE: post 45

I am so tired of Al Gore bashing. The photo wasn't amusing and neither are you. POOF!


I'm so sick of the Joe Bastardi bashing, Dr. Mickey.
RE: post 49

Oh, come on! That's funny. Lighten up Francis. The post was very amuzing...
Quoting NttyGrtty:
RE: post 49

Oh, come on! That's funny. Lighten up Francis. The post was very amuzing...

Who is Francis? Not me...
I can think of one reason why the NWS should not go down the road of naming severe winter storms - homeowner insurance. Check out what insurance companies do when a storm is named, they increase the deductible. Many companies have been authorized by state agencies to increase the deductible if the storm is named. It is called the "Named storm Deductible". I also think it is one of the reasons why Hurricane Sandy was downgraded to a "severe storm" when it made landfall. For all the wonderful reasons to develop a system of naming storms, increasing homeowner costs should not be one of them!
472. Barefootontherocks 4:39 PM GMT on November 09, 2012 +1

Quoting hydrus:
I hope your right, but 200 years is far fetched in my eyes. The region gets its share of storms, and I would not be surprised if something like Sandy struck them again next year with the worlds weather changing the way it is.

Thanks for the response.

Saw roughly 400 years ago for historical comparison here and at weatherhistorian's blog. I picked 200 as a compromise. I can't help observing that we humans, in the US and possibly elsewhere, are cycling through that part of the circle where "middle of the road" seems a lost art......I believe the Earths weather has changed significantly the past 30 years, cant imagine what things will be like in 200.-hydrus.
Quoting DrMickey:

Who is Francis? Not me...

Lighten up, Bud.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 PM EST FRI NOV 09 2012

VALID 12Z MON NOV 12 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 16 2012

PRELIMINARY MEDIUM RANGE GRAPHICS MAINTAINED THE CONSISTENT
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET APPROACH WITH AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...GREAT LAKES...AND INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHERN TEXAS. BIG NEWS WILL BE THE SHARP THERMAL
CONTRASTS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD
BETWEEN DAY 3-5.

FOR SOME DAYS NOW...THE H85 TEMP FORECASTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 10-15C. WITH SUCH A
SHARP CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...WINDS AND SURFACE-BASED LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE DRAMATIC SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MIDWEST WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME. DEEP-LAYERED WARM ADVECTION STREAMING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE
READINGS THAT WILL BE A GOOD 15-20 F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE. SOME 15-25F BELOW NORMAL.

FOR DAYS 6-7...AGREE WITH THE MID SHIFT THAT A GFS/GEFS MEAN AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH APPEARS BEST TO HANDLE THE DEVELOPING
SPLIT-FLOW SCENARIO ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
Quite bit of rain with this next system.
Quoting MrNatural:
I can think of one reason why the NWS should not go down the road of naming severe winter storms - homeowner insurance. Check out what insurance companies do when a storm is named, they increase the deductible. Many companies have been authorized by state agencies to increase the deductible if the storm is named. It is called the "Named storm Deductible". I also think it is one of the reasons why Hurricane Sandy was downgraded to a "severe storm" when it made landfall. For all the wonderful reasons to develop a system of naming storms, increasing homeowner costs should not be one of them!
I would be very angry!.I would love the snow but not paying the insurance company any more money than I have to now.I've all ready had to pay up this summer because of damages that occured with the storms.Now imagine if they were named?.Yikes!

Yeah it may be exciting for some to see their "wish come true".But not for people that have to pay out of our pockets.Thank goodness this isn't official.
Quoting DrMickey:

Who is Francis? Not me...


Sgt Hulka in Stripes to the new recurit.

One of those things you just have to see.
STRIPES, Bill Murray.
Quoting cpeterka:


Sgt Hulka in Stripes to the new recurit.

One of those things you just have to see.
STRIPES, Bill Murray.

Got it.
You'll have to excuse me; I'm an old man and I am overdue for yelling at a cloud.
Quoting DrMickey:

Got it.
You'll have to excuse me; I'm an old man and I am overdue for yelling at a cloud.
i may be a bit younger, but i'll join ya..
Quoting cpeterka:


Sgt Hulka in Stripes to the new recurit.

One of those things you just have to see.
STRIPES, Bill Murray.
Movie sounds lame..I'll pass..
Athena
Hate to be the bearer of bad news but the Euro is showing a future Valerie possibly threatening the east coast..00z run was a weaker disturbance but the 12z is stronger..

00z


12z



Stripes lame? Yeah, the Linda Blair movies were much better...
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Stripes lame? Yeah, the Linda Blair movies were much better...
I said my opinion now we move on.This isn't the TMZ website.And yes the women in my avatar will be under your bed tonight waiting for you.ha ha!.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also, if I seem grumpy today - I am. :P

I've caught the flu, so I've got a 101 degree fever, chills, all the unpleasant stuff. I haven't gotten a flu shot in years!
I got a slight bit of that yesterday. Hopefully yours will go away as quick as mine did. And I have NEVER gotten a flu shot.:)
Quoting washingtonian115:
I said my opinion now we move on.This isn't the TMZ website.And yes the women in my avatar will be under your bed tonight waiting for you.ha ha!.


Bored, are we?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I said my opinion now we move on.This isn't the TMZ website.And yes the women in my avatar will be under your bed tonight waiting for you.ha ha!.


LOL..or Captain Howdy..

That is one movie I will not watch by myself..hands down the scariest movie of all time..
Quoting NttyGrtty:


Bored, are we?
So so.just waiting for tonight.After all it is pay day!.
all I have to say is.....Yesssssssssss
Happy 77th bday Bob Gibson! Best pitcher ever!

StL up to 71, I'm about 66. S winds now to 24 gusts

Edit: 77th post, how appropriate!
The pic of the flooded subway terminal that Dr. Master's posted is quite startling. My sister who lives in NYC also sent a few shots of her old neighborhood in the lower east side and that area had major flooding as well. I think Sandy was a wakeup call to all that when you have a significant amount of a city's infrastructure underground it doesn't take much water to bring the city to its knees. Even if the entire city had evacuated, there would still be quite a mess to mop up so to speak. Some of those tunnels in the subway system are pushing 80 years old so who knows if there has been any structural compromise to the system. Whoever can figure out how to self contain the system and effectively design the proverbial "subway storm door" will be a very rich man or woman.
Quoting ncstorm:
Hate to be the bearer of bad news but the Euro is showing a future Valerie possibly threatening the east coast..00z run was a weaker disturbance but the 12z is stronger..

00z


12z





The waters have already been cooled off by Sandy and cold fronts, it should only be, if anything, a weak tropical storm.
Quoting LargoFl:
all I have to say is.....Yesssssssssss



I'm right with you Largo! It's currently 76° in Ft Myers with the winds NE at 7. Humidity only 31% and Dewpoint of 43° Loving it!
Quoting Jeff Masters:
Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change...
Where dollar damages (and, for that matter, injuries and deaths) are concerned, I completely agree that it's simply too difficult and "noisy" to claim climate change as a culprit. But the number of actual extreme weather events has been increasing, of course, and that's where it's entirely plausible to point the finger at climate change. In fact, it's sort of illogical not to.
Quoting Jeff Masters:
We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that....
Yes, there certainly are. ;-)
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The waters have already been cooled off by Sandy and cold fronts, it should only be, if anything, a weak tropical storm.


a weak tropical storm on the east coast during august of this year would have been welcome for some regions due to the drought but as of NOW after Sandy and a noreaster, nah..there would be nothing "weak" about that storm to an already devastated area..
.
I fear that the East Coast is in for a smacking at some point in the next 10-15 days. The GFS has been showing things for the past couple days, and now it appears the Euro is jumping on board for something. Still lots of questions but there is a broad consistency between the two.

Euro at 240 hours:



GFS at 300 hours:



And GFS at 360 hours:



The NAO will likely be crashing at this time, which is bad:

Head of CIA resigns after undercover activity exposed.

/sarcasm
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I fear that the East Coast is in for a smacking at some point in the next 10-15 days. The GFS has been showing things for the past couple days, and now it appears the Euro is jumping on board for something. Still lots of questions but there is a broad consistency between the two.

Euro at 240 hours:



GFS at 300 hours:



And GFS at 360 hours:



The NAO will likely be crashing at this time, which is bad:


That would be horrible for the Northeast after what they have been through
Good afternoon everyone, hopefully everyone is having good weather. Christmas music is now playing 100% non-stop in SE MI, great...

On a serious note, the NE could get another hit in after the 10 day period. Of course it wouldn't be Sandy but it could bring some bad impacts yet again. The GFS and Euro are now both showing a storm headed for the NE. Seeing this consistency starts to get me worried as that area has seen 2 storms in 2 weeks. Hopefully this storm on the models doesn't happen, but with the NAO expected to fall and some consistency already I think it could happen.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I fear that the East Coast is in for a smacking at some point in the next 10-15 days. The GFS has been showing things for the past couple days, and now it appears the Euro is jumping on board for something. Still lots of questions but there is a broad consistency between the two.

Euro at 240 hours:



GFS at 300 hours:



And GFS at 360 hours:



The NAO will likely be crashing at this time, which is bad:


God, no. I know it's so far out, but this can't come to fruition. We can't handle it here. Keeping an eye on it, and am prepared for any storm right now anyway because you just never know.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Head of CIA resigns after undercover activity exposed.

/sarcasm


...you'd think the head of the CIA would be sneaky enough to not get caught...
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

God, no. I know it's so far out, but this can't come to fruition. We can't handle it here. Keeping an eye on it, and am prepared for any storm right now anyway because you just never know.



...Have you been able to sort out your Rx challenge?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Head of CIA resigns after undercover activity exposed.

/sarcasm


i thought you were joking

article here
.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



...Have you been able to sort out your Rx challenge?

Not really yet. I've finally gotten in contact with my doctors manager I'm good friends with, and I think she will be able to at least get them written hopefully on Monday. The surgical center in NJ is still out of power, I can't believe it.

And even though I don't need all of my prescriptions written right now, I am not taking any chances of another storm coming in the next two weeks and will hopefully just get all of them so at least I have them, and don't have to worry for another month!
Quoting Skyepony:
Finally got my beach pics up. Sandy brought us so much sand...millions of dollars of sand. She was so well named. I know she was hell on the NE~ but here, We got a hurricane day with little damage & all that beach renourishment. She did East Central Florida quite a bit of good.

The new tidal pool/trench is where the beach used to end & the ocean began. Sandy brought far more beach than I've ever seen in this area. Not only is the sand bar new, the old beach is ~five foot higher than it used to be. It used to be 9 stairs down to the beach here now it's only 4. Click on the pic to see the whole series. These were taken in Indialantic, FL on 11-4. Heard mass Sandy sand renourishment happened all the way south to Vero Beach. Not sure what the entire area of great benefit was. Seen nothing in the media about it other than the initial damage of 25mill & pics a few days before these of eroded beach even Indialantic, that looks nothing like it does now. As the storm left it pumped sand up as it moved out according to beach dwelling friends. Looks like the federal 25mill in sand money is still being asked for. They could use a bulldozer to do some rearranging & there will be some beach front claims but I don't know about 25million in federal sand money..



Wow Sky...glad to hear that some good came out of Sandy.

{Chief P puts his tongue in his cheek}
Hope the next one on the Gulf Coast of Texas does the same, and takes all the brown water away and replaces it with the blue stuff...tired of looking at the "Gulf of Yoohoo";>P

{Chief P now takes his tongue out of his cheek}
Quoting plutorising:


i thought you were joking

article here


I thought it was a joke too. Especially with the /sarcasm flag at the bottom of the post.

Washingtonian - That picture of your girlfriend is hideous...
Quoting Grothar:

Why oh why.

Who feels that some kind of system might actually pan out? I know it's very far in advance but.. it's making me feel a bit uneasy.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What's the deal with some of you people about this whole TWC-naming-winter storms deal anyways? Because the NWS doesn't back it up? Who cares, I think it's a great idea. We named hurricanes starting in the 1950s, with names like Dog, Easy, Fox, etc. It gives us weather nerds something to track in the post-season. The fact that people are putting everyone who agrees with The Weather Channel, such as Dr. Masters, as drinking TWC's kool-aid is astoundingly stupid. If you want to leave, leave. Now, is TWC's decision a way to get views and increase interest in their shows? Certainly, that's called being a business. Get used to it, but I can tell you for a fact regardless of the name, people being affected by these storms could care less about what name is given to it.


UUGGHH...time to weigh in with my humble opinion.

Thank you CyberTeddy for your comments.

First, who cares if TWC is using this for a marketing strategy. Does it really hurt anyone for TWC to make more money? The pieces of pie don't get smaller, the pie gets bigger (Reaganomics {Voodoo Economics} quote...yes, I am from that era). TWC makes more money=more people get jobs=more money spent=more taxes to U.S. and state coffers=more tax money spent on...whatever...maybe reconstruction, disaster relief, disaster preparedness, IDK...sweat gland blockage on the Monarch Butterfly.

(I am not a Monarch Butterfly hater...my father cultivates, raises, protects them in his greenhouse to re-populate them in the Houston area).

And, no one gets hurt by naming winter storms. But...if ONLY ONE PERSON is helped by naming a winter storm (some ordinary citizen who is not weather-savvy but may seek help or prepare because of hearing that a storm is 'named' and may be dangerous)then this program is considered a success, IMHO.

Additionally, if named storms help the members of this blog track, comment on, and categorize them to avoid confusion...what is the big deal? IMHO, "over-hype" made my job easier...the more people prepared (or evacuated my Emergency Services District), the 'easier' my job was.

{Now back to our regularly scheduled program on "Global Warming...He Said/She Said", a documentary of two warring factions};>P

Respectfully submitted to all the members of this blog,

Retired Chief P
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

Not really yet. I've finally gotten in contact with my doctors manager I'm good friends with, and I think she will be able to at least get them written hopefully on Monday. The surgical center in NJ is still out of power, I can't believe it.

And even though I don't need all of my prescriptions written right now, I am not taking any chances of another storm coming in the next two weeks and will hopefully just get all of them so at least I have them, and don't have to worry for another month!
Don't just hold the scripts, get them filled. Nothing worse than having the scripts and not being able to get the drugs.
Quoting RetiredChiefP:


UUGGHH...time to weigh in with my humble opinion.

Thank you CyberTeddy for your comments.

First, who cares if TWC is using this for a marketing strategy. Does it really hurt anyone for TWC to make more money? The pieces of pie don't get smaller, the pie gets bigger (Reaganomics {Voodoo Economics} quote...yes, I am from that era). TWC makes more money=more people get jobs=more money spent=more taxes to U.S. and state coffers=more tax money spent on...whatever...maybe reconstruction, disaster relief, disaster preparedness, IDK...sweat gland blockage on the Monarch Butterfly.

(I am not a Monarch Butterfly hater...my father cultivates, raises, protects them in his greenhouse to re-populate them in the Houston area).

And, no one gets hurt by naming winter storms. But...if ONLY ONE PERSON is helped by naming a winter storm (some ordinary citizen who is not weather-savvy but may seek help or prepare because of hearing that a storm is 'named' and may be dangerous)then this program is considered a success, IMHO.

Additionally, if named storms help the members of this blog track, comment on, and categorize them to avoid confusion...what is the big deal? IMHO, "over-hype" made my job easier...the more people prepared (or evacuated my Emergency Services District), the 'easier' my job was.

{Now back to our regularly scheduled program on "Global Warming...He Said/She Said", a documentary of two warring factions};>P

Respectfully submitted to all the members of this blog,

Retired Chief P


Naming winter storms may be harmless, but if the insurance companies treat named winter storms like named tropical storms, they can invoke the "Named storm deductible" rules. This rule is in Texas and other states. It can increase deductibles significantly. I do not see a reason to name winter storms if it is going to impact homeowner insurance.
Quoting kwgirl:
Don't just hold the scripts, get them filled. Nothing worse than having the scripts and not being able to get the drugs.

That's a good point. But these I can not fill until at least 28 days have passed. I went through this last week. I had one due to be filled on Tuesday or Wednesday, and Sunday was too early to do it.. And then of course my pharmacy, and actually every CVS in a 5 mile radius, was out of power. Luckily, LIPA got that area up and running on Thursday and I had enough left (I try to stock up some extra of each medication, just in case) to make it until that day and was able to fill it.

I wish everyone was able to fill one extra bottle of their medication to have in a safe or something in case of emergency. But with controlled substances, that's difficult.
103. N3EG
Because of the refraction of the water in the subway tunnel, I thought those escalators in the picture were skee-ball lanes.
This is a link to the Office of Public Insurance from Texas. The rules and impact on deductibles from damage relating to a named storm is clear. It will cost the consumer more if the damage is from a named storm.

Link
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

That's a good point. But these I can not fill until at least 28 days have passed. I went through this last week. I had one due to be filled on Tuesday or Wednesday, and Sunday was too early to do it.. And then of course my pharmacy, and actually every CVS in a 5 mile radius, was out of power. Luckily, LIPA got that area up and running on Thursday and I had enough left (I try to stock up some extra of each medication, just in case) to make it until that day and was able to fill it.

I wish everyone was able to fill one extra bottle of their medication to have in a safe or something in case of emergency. But with controlled substances, that's difficult.


I have extras also..
Just makes sense if you can..
No way on the controlled though..
I do however rotate them as to keep the freshest in reserve..
Dr.'s advice to me..
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

That's a good point. But these I can not fill until at least 28 days have passed. I went through this last week. I had one due to be filled on Tuesday or Wednesday, and Sunday was too early to do it.. And then of course my pharmacy, and actually every CVS in a 5 mile radius, was out of power. Luckily, LIPA got that area up and running on Thursday and I had enough left (I try to stock up some extra of each medication, just in case) to make it until that day and was able to fill it.

I wish everyone was able to fill one extra bottle of their medication to have in a safe or something in case of emergency. But with controlled substances, that's difficult.
Yes it becomes diffcult. The standard recommendations by emergency management during hurricanes is to stock up on your drugs by one month. They have advised that you ask the doctor for an extra script. You might have to come out of pocket, but it would be worth it. In the keys after Hurricane Andrew, we were having drug shortages. I don't know if the trucks weren't making it through or because our communications were down for a while. Pretty touch and go if you need it for your heart like my mother did. When she evacuated for Wilma my brother was worried about getting her drugs until I reminded him that they have Walgreen's up where he lived. And that I planned on in case of such a situation.
Quoting MrNatural:
This is a link to the Office of Public Insurance from Texas. The rules and impact on deductibles from damage relating to a named storm is clear. It will cost the consumer more if the damage is from a named storm.

Link


Time will tell if TWC has shot themselves (and general public)in the foot or have raised a triumphant flag for forecasting..
We shall see..
Quoting MrNatural:


Naming winter storms may be harmless, but if the insurance companies treat named winter storms like named tropical storms, they can invoke the "Named storm deductible" rules. This rule is in Texas and other states. It can increase deductibles significantly. I do not see a reason to name winter storms if it is go
ing to impact homeowner insurance.


You bring up a valid point. I apologize for not qualifying my comments by saying "TWC unofficially names storms".

Other bloggers here have brought up that the current insurance qualifications are for tropical storms...but I am sure (IMHO) that the insurance companies would quickly adjust if naming winter storms were to become official. I am definitely not in favor of that outcome...lol.

I think that more weather neophytes watch TWC than any official government website. TWC IS a big name in the cable/satellite arena, so having TWC do this is not as harmful as the government naming winter storms.

I, for one, would not want my insurance rates to go up...no one does; I like my money...want to spend it on my wife and my Harley ;>P.

Thank you MrNatural
Quoting kwgirl:
Don't just hold the scripts, get them filled. Nothing worse than having the scripts and not being able to get the drugs.


Some states won't allow you to have over a 30 day supply of Class I narcotics .. so our prescriptions are dated ..
Quoting Neapolitan:
Where dollar damages (and, for that matter, injuries and deaths) are concerned, I completely agree that it's simply too difficult and "noisy" to claim climate change as a culprit. But the number of actual extreme weather events has been increasing, of course, and that's where it's entirely plausible to point the finger at climate change. In fact, it's sort of illogical not to.Yes, there certainly are. ;-)


I prefer to look at it like this. It is almost impossible to label Climate Change as a direct cause of any specific event. It is a lot easier and logically correct to label climate change as the systemic cause of many events. Systemic causes make something much more likely because they change the system.

Look at it like this. A lot of weed smokers are more likely to get in trouble with the Feds in CO and WA because of the change in the state laws. But the law will not be a direct cause; it will be a systemic cause that encourages the smokers to defy Federal law.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is changing our system. And Mother Nature is getting ready to kick our butts right off her planet if we don't start showing some respect.
Quoting MrNatural:
This is a link to the Office of Public Insurance from Texas. The rules and impact on deductibles from damage relating to a named storm is clear. It will cost the consumer more if the damage is from a named storm.


Obviously, the devil is in the details, namely (pun intended) how they define "named storm". I suspect the legalase in the insurance policy contracts is sophisticated enough to distinguish between a storm named by the NHC versus one named by a news agency or private company, but who knows.
Quoting weatherdogg:


Obviously, the devil is in the details, namely (pun intended) how they define "named storm". I suspect the legalase in the insurance policy contracts is sophisticated enough to distinguish between a storm named by the NHC versus one named by a news agency or private company, but who knows.


You probably are right. My concern is that pressure will be put on the NWS to keep up with the TWC. Then the legalese as you put it may be more formal....
My interview that was scheduled to appear on NBC Nightly News this Friday evening at 6:30 pm to talk about Hurricane Sandy and climate change has been postponed, and is now scheduled to run on Monday.

Jeff Masters
I think Charlie Chan was way ahead of his time. He didn't even believe in naming his children. He just referred to them by numbers. Like #1 son and #2 son and #1 daughter, etc. Of course he lost count after 11.
Quoting JeffMasters:
My interview that was scheduled to appear on NBC Nightly News this Friday evening at 6:30 pm to talk about Hurricane Sandy and climate change has been postponed, and is now scheduled to run on Monday.

Jeff Masters


Awww...geez Doc...now I will have to wait ALLLL weekend...in sunny, 80-degree weather...go through a HORRIBLE rain shower (when the cold front comes through Houston) to watch you on NBC.

Could you please...please...please...convince them to air it before Monday??? I feel...well...helpless...

LOL...just kidding Dr. Masters...look forward to seeing it.

Irreverently,
Chief P
Since you brought this forward, I'll reply, mostly to keep the he said/she said straight from my original comment in the previous blog,
Barefootontherocks 4:39 PM GMT on November 09, 2012

Quoting hydrus:
I hope your right, but 200 years is far fetched in my eyes. The region gets its share of storms, and I would not be surprised if something like Sandy struck them again next year with the worlds weather changing the way it is.

This is what I said:
Thanks for the response.

Saw roughly 400 years ago for historical comparison here and at weatherhistorian's blog. I picked 200 as a compromise. I can't help observing that we humans, in the US and possibly elsewhere, are cycling through that part of the circle where "middle of the road" seems a lost art.

This is what you said in this blog at comment 58:
I believe the Earths weather has changed significantly the past 30 years, cant imagine what things will be like in 200.-hydrus.

To which I reply:
The behavior of the atmosphere over time will tell us. I believe in the benefit of the doubt and the middle of the road. For me, jumping on the hype bandwagon would be totally out of character.
bf
Quoting MrNatural:


Naming winter storms may be harmless, but if the insurance companies treat named winter storms like named tropical storms, they can invoke the "Named storm deductible" rules. This rule is in Texas and other states. It can increase deductibles significantly. I do not see a reason to name winter storms if it is going to impact homeowner insurance.


Hmm. Which insurance companies advertise on TWC? It really IS that kind of world now.

To my eye it looks in general to be about 16-18 inches of snow in Helena Montana, so far. That is.... that is what you see out there sitting on undisturbed flat surfaces.

Here is a link to a local cam in the city Link
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Hmm. Which insurance companies advertise on TWC? It really IS that kind of world now.

To my eye it looks in general to be about 16-18 inches of snow in Helena Montana, so far. That is.... that is what you see out there sitting on undisturbed flat surfaces.

Here is a link to a local cam in the city Link


IKR!!! I think I saw that little gecko pointing out Brutus on a map of Montana earlier this morning on TWC. ;>P
Quoting RetiredChiefP:


IKR!!! I think I saw that little gecko pointing out Brutus on a map of Montana earlier this morning on TWC. ;>P


{tongue in cheek}

And doesn't his company stand for "Guvmint Employee Insurance Company"??

{tongue out of cheek}
We will wait and watch you on MOnday then, Dr.Masters.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Where dollar damages (and, for that matter, injuries and deaths) are concerned, I completely agree that it's simply too difficult and "noisy" to claim climate change as a culprit. But the number of actual extreme weather events has been increasing, of course, and that's where it's entirely plausible to point the finger at climate change. In fact, it's sort of illogical not to.Yes, there certainly are. ;-)

Not this one, but another of your arguments today did make sense. The one about all the reaction to TWC naming storms caused more publicity for TWC. Not many bloggers respond to your comments here. I have, and what I now realize is the more responses you get that challenge the logic and form of your argument, the more chances you get to continue it. When I looked back to see what hydrus had written, I saw you commented at the end of Doc M's previous blog. I did not read what you wrote there and I will not respond. As soon as I click "post comment," you will go onto my ignore list. Sorry if this causes your ratings or income to go down but, frankly, I feel used.

Have a nice whatever.
;-)
400years? 200years? Somehow deciding to wait until the most populated areas of Florida are underwater before deciding whether AGW is real seems a bit unrealistic to me.
Quoting percylives:


I prefer to look at it like this. It is almost impossible to label Climate Change as a direct cause of any specific event. It is a lot easier and logically correct to label climate change as the systemic cause of many events. Systemic causes make something much more likely because they change the system.

Look at it like this. A lot of weed smokers are more likely to get in trouble with the Feds in CO and WA because of the change in the state laws. But the law will not be a direct cause; it will be a systemic cause that encourages the smokers to defy Federal law.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is changing our system. And Mother Nature is getting ready to kick our butts right off her planet if we don't start showing some respect.


I wonder if the increased CO2 from the smokers in Colorado will affect climate change in any way? Or will it just be called green energy?
Just watched an amazing show on history channel-2 on cable..forget climate change, thats in the future..the bigger problem today is Water..drinkable clean water and our food supply.....in 1970 we reached our peak in obtaining fossil fuel..oil..and are on the downward slope..remember not only does oil fuel the semi's that bring our food supplies from 1500 miles away or so..but..how does our food crops grow?..famers use tractors..fueled by oil huh..and the fertilizers used to feed our food crops..comes from natural gas etc..both we are running out of...in 30 years they said..we are going to face a life changing crisis in america,now onto water..did you know our wastewater plants that supposedly filter our waste water and then dumps it back into the oceans and rivers etc..only filter out SOME of the waste..fish in the ocean are showing high concentrations of..caffine..i spelled that wrong but..every time you drink a coffee..and later get rid of it..into the rivers and oceans it goes....now think..of all the medicines you intake..then get rid of later..all going into the water..and eaten by fish etc....a real scary show it was for me...profhets of doom its called(spelled that wrong too) but look for it..and watch it..you will completely forget..about climate change..oh and also..i didnt know..by law..in australia..you are only allowed..by law..to take a 5 minute shower....Thats how close we are in that area to run out of clean water
here is a link to the story i found on the web.................Link.....prophets of doom
Quoting aspectre:
400years? 200years? Somehow deciding to wait until the most populated areas of Florida are underwater before deciding whether AGW is real seems a bit unrealistic to me.
Not just unrealistic, but stupid. Very, very stupid...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not just unrealistic, but stupid. Very, very stupid...
Well said!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS INTERACTING WITH A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Well at least I got my prescription thing worked out. My doctors manager got them from him to me and is sending them to me.. phew. She told me things are just so insanely screwed up with all the offices and even the computers. Plus the cable/internet has been knocked out again from the storm on Wednesday.

Seriously, Sandy is the storm that keeps on giving.

Now we just need some kind of barrier around this region to keep anymore storms from coming here.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not just unrealistic, but stupid. Very, very stupid...


Quoting aspectre:
400years? 200years? Somehow deciding to wait until the most populated areas of Florida are underwater before deciding whether AGW is real seems a bit unrealistic to me.

I think we all have to get this thing with global warming into perspective here. The times when something could have been done about it encroachment were probably about 30 years ago.
Doing something now is like running after the bullet you just fired because you changed your mind about shooting it.
Damage limitation is probably the best that can be achieved with a lot of luck!
NBC editor with time constraint:

...hmmmm, on the show tonight,
should we run the interview with the Weather Underground guy,
or the CIA story.

(60's all over again)

; )
Evening all...

Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, hopefully everyone is having good weather. Christmas music is now playing 100% non-stop in SE MI, great...

On a serious note, the NE could get another hit in after the 10 day period. Of course it wouldn't be Sandy but it could bring some bad impacts yet again. The GFS and Euro are now both showing a storm headed for the NE. Seeing this consistency starts to get me worried as that area has seen 2 storms in 2 weeks. Hopefully this storm on the models doesn't happen, but with the NAO expected to fall and some consistency already I think it could happen.
Lol... I was just laughing about the Christmas music in Sbux... not to mention the seasonal drinks and the decorations... lol

Gotta tellya... sure doesn't feel like hurricane season anymore, but that wx west of the CVs looks remarkably business-like for November.

At least the Caribbean is pretty clear for now.
It actually feels - and looks - a lot like Christmas-time in the north here right now... and I am hoping I can finally get a chance to photograph the remarkably wintery-looking foliage, compliments of Sandy, which wind / sand / salt blasted just about everything green in the islands. Most trees have lost their leaves, and even the evergreens are brown and sad-looking.... never seen a storm do such damage to the foliage here.
134. Hugo5
Has anyone else noticed how inaccurate the surface maps are?
Quoting aspectre:
400years? 200years? Somehow deciding to wait until the most populated areas of Florida are underwater before deciding whether AGW is real seems a bit unrealistic to me.
If that's a reference to my discussion with hydrus, I been talking about blaming a storm like Sandy on AGW, not the potential sea level rise on a warming planet. And no one, that I can see anyway, said anything about not doing anything for hundreds of years toward what humans might do to help heal our atmosphere. You seem a little scared. If you're really, really afraid of Florida going under water and you live there, then leave. At this point in time, no one can rescue Florida from drowning if this indeed comes to pass. The smart money is already preparing.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

If that's a reference to my discussion with hydrus, I been talking about blaming a storm like Sandy on AGW, not the potential sea level rise on a warming planet. And no one, that I can see anyway, said anything about not doing anything for hundreds of years toward what humans might do to help heal our atmosphere. You seem a little scared. If you're really, really afraid of Florida going under water and you live there, then leave. At this point in time, no one can rescue Florida from drowning if this indeed comes to pass. The smart money is already preparing.
Ps to that. The 200 and 400 years were purely referring to when a rerun of Sandy might happen, based on history of a storm like Sandy, beings there hasn't been one in recorded weather history. That happens sometimes when you drag a comment in from another blog, pulled out of context. Someone takes it down a one way street the wrong way.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Not this one, but another of your arguments today did make sense. The one about all the reaction to TWC naming storms caused more publicity for TWC. Not many bloggers respond to your comments here. I have, and what I now realize is the more responses you get that challenge the logic and form of your argument, the more chances you get to continue it. When I looked back to see what hydrus had written, I saw you commented at the end of Doc M's previous blog. I did not read what you wrote there and I will not respond. As soon as I click "post comment," you will go onto my ignore list. Sorry if this causes your ratings or income to go down but, frankly, I feel used.

Have a nice whatever.
;-)
I'm always amused by those who make it known that they're placing someone with whom they've been debating on the ignore list. This, the forum equivalent of angrily picking up one's ball and going home, is as sure a sign as any that the person acknowledges they've lost. ;-)

But I have to say that it appears some here may still be struggling with the finer meaning of terms such as "dialog", or "discussion", or "debate". See, when in a public forum someone writes something to which others disagree, it's very common--indeed, expected--that those others will respond. So if someone "challenge[s] the logic and form of [my] argument", it's only natural that I would "continue it" by answering them in return. That's part of the dynamic, two-way, give-and-take nature of online debate. Anyone who cares to "challenge the logic and form of [an] argument" without themselves being challenged in return would be better off simply mumbling those challenges into an empty room so no one can hear them. Otherwise, it's all fair game.

On another note, it's important to keep in mind that the real value of any particular comment can't be measured by counting how many people respond to it, or quote it, or vote it up. No, the only true measure of a comment's worth is how many people find it useful, or thought-provoking, or touching, or profound. Popularity contests are for junior high school; grown-ups should try to use different metrics.
Quoting Hugo5:
Has anyone else noticed how inaccurate the surface maps are?


What do you mean?
139. Hugo5
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What do you mean?


I use this web site http://hint.fm/wind/ to get an idea of were the lows and highs are, but when I look at the surface maps here on wunderground the maps seem to be all off. maybe refering to upper level lows and other things, not surface pressure systems, anyone have a good map they use to get surface pressures?
I have to say I come to post here 10x or more as often as I do in Facebook...

I love this blog...sorry it's out of topic

ALASKA


...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...


* SNOW...2 TO 3 INCHES. (just for 2-3 inches???

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET ON
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.
142. beell
Quoting Hugo5:


I use this web site http://hint.fm/wind/ to get an idea of were the lows and highs are, but when I look at the surface maps here on wunderground the maps seem to be all off. maybe refering to upper level lows and other things, not surface pressure systems, anyone have a good map they use to get surface pressures?



Click at/near area of interest to zoom-in. Click again to zoom-out.
HPC North America Zoom-in
HPC Surface Analysis Page
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

ALASKA


...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...


* SNOW...2 TO 3 INCHES. (just for 2-3 inches???

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.


* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET ON
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.



ICE ICE BABY
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

ALASKA


...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...


* SNOW...2 TO 3 INCHES. (just for 2-3 inches???

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET ON
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

One half inch of ice will do a lot, especially combined with snow. That's why there is a warning instead of an advisory.
Quoting wxchaser97:

One half inch of ice will do a lot, especially combined with snow. That's why there is a warning instead of an advisory.


they should have done it like this...

advisory for the 2-3" of snow
freezing rain warning for the .5" of ice

but it's the NWS
146. beell
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


they should have done it like this...

advisory for the 2-3" of snow
freezing rain warning for the .5" of ice

but it's the NWS


Perhaps you could include a specific WFO?. Alaska is kinda big.
147. beell
Yes, it must be the NWS.

WWAK42 PAFG 100011
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

AKZ216-100700-
/X.EXT.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121111T0000Z/
LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS-
INCLUDING...GALENA...NULATO...HUSLIA...KALTAG...R UBY...KOYUKUK
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST SATURDAY...

* SNOW...3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED SOUTH OF KALTAG.

* TIMING...SNOW...WITH FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF KALTAG...WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES AND TREES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ212-100700-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121110T1500Z/
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
INCLUDING...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...ELIM...KOYUK...
SHAKTOOLIK
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...

* SNOW...2 TO 3 INCHES.

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET ON
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ214-100700-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121111T0000Z/
YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...
PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...
PITKAS POINT
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
SATURDAY...

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ215-100700-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121111T0000Z/
LOWER YUKON VALLEY-
INCLUDING...RUSSIAN MISSION...GRAYLING...HOLY CROSS...SHAGELUK...
ANVIK...FLAT
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
SATURDAY...

* SNOW...2 TO 5 INCHES...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF ANVIK.

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

* TIMING...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING TONIGHT... TAPERING
OFF SATURDAY. FREEZING RAIN MOST FREQUENT SOUTH OF ANVIK.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES AND TREES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ227-100700-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121111T0000Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING...MCGRATH...NIKOLAI...TAKOTNA...FAREWEL L LAKE
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
SATURDAY...

* SNOW...2 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM MCGRATH
SOUTH AND WEST.

* FREEZING RAIN...WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM MCGRATH SOUTH AND WEST.

* TIMING...SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN.
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY.


* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES AND TREES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$





148. Hugo5
I think that warning is a bit early. the low is still well north of denver.
Hi WU-Team,
This is interesting

..."A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week."
Jeff Masters
Also glad to see Jeff is getting the publicity pay-off he had hoped with the Big Gun buy out.
Hi,

I've been lurking here for a while. I just wanted to thank each and every one of you here for posting on Hurricane Sandy. Because of you all, I was able to prepare.

I absolutely love storms, but I have never EVER experienced anything like Sandy before, not to mention the aftermath. I feel like I'm living in Dodge City. I hear sirens constantly and the Armed Guard is becoming a regular sight. It's very, very sad. I'm blessed that I still have my home and don't have much damage.

For those of you who have lived through more hurricanes than I...have you ever seen the sky light up rainbow colors? What I saw was definitely not lightning or transformers blowing up. This was the whole sky lighting up grass green, red, sometimes purple. The flashes of light lasted way longer than a typical flash of lightning and there was no thunder. I've never seen anything like it before. Scariest storm ever! Any idea what it was?

Thanks and I hope everyone affected by Sandy is safe!
Quoting RetiredChiefP:


UUGGHH...time to weigh in with my humble

I just think it is sad that they want to add more bull to the news cycle. I'd like things to trend in the opposite direction.
For those of you who have lived through more hurricanes than I...have you ever seen the sky light up rainbow colors? What I saw was definitely not lightning or transformers blowing up. This was the whole sky lighting up grass green, red, sometimes purple. The flashes of light lasted way longer than a typical flash of lightning and there was no thunder. I've never seen anything like it before. Scariest storm ever! Any idea what it was?

Thanks and I hope everyone affected by Sandy is safe!
Action: Quote | Ignore User



yes i am in central maine and during the 1998 ice storm i saw the similiar thing , tranformers lighting up the sky almost continuously. it was transformers blowing up, we lost power for 7 days with 10-20 degree weather no fun but unforgetable!!
For decades we've been told that sooner or later another hurricane was going to strike the northeast and cause catastrophic damage. There was no mention of global warming. Now that it has happened some are saying AGW is why it happened. Storms of that magnitude have probably hit the northeast U.S. two or three times a century for thousands of years. These alarmist only weaken their argument with such claims and it becomes more obvious it's agenda driven. And with Santa Claus back for four more years your agenda is full steam ahead.
WOW..This just needs some convection from the center. Moving wsw too..click to loop.
The 18z GFS developed a total of four systems in the last run.


The first one is by 66 hours from our disturbance out in the Atlantic. Weakens it quickly, so I doubt it would make so much as a 45mph Tropical Storm.

The second one is by 102 hours, north of Puerto Rico, and is probably a sub-tropical system.

The third one is by 150 hours, out by where the first developed, and is stronger.

The fourth one is similar to the second one, sub-tropical in nature.

That would take us to Beta. Guess is we'll see at least one more named this year.
Fresh OSCAT..not to the surface yet..
More flooding in the UK..

More than 60 Cumbrian communities are living under the threat of flash flooding – double the number in the rest of the entire north west region. Following high-profile problems across the area, the Environment Agency has compiled a new list of the areas most at risk – potentially affecting thousands of people. It includes almost 20 communities in the west of the county, including those along the coast and in the Egremont, Cleator Moor, Cockermouth, Workington and Keswick areas. A total of 99 areas are identified, 67 across Cumbria and a further 32 in Lancashire and Greater Manchester. The agency says not every property in these communities will be at risk. However it stresses that it is important everyone in the area is aware of the dangers and ensures they are prepared for it to hit at anytime. A spokesman said flash flooding is caused by intense rainfall. It occurs suddenly with little or no warning – often before emergency services have time to arrive. It tends to happen when heavy rainfall runs off land and quickly swells rivers and streams, and can also occur where drainage systems are overwhelmed. One of the most recent examples was in August this year, when flash flooding hit parts of west Cumbria. About 80 homes and businesses in the Egremont area were damaged when heavy rain flooded a nearby beck and drains could no longer cope. Earlier this month there were also problems in Whitehaven town centre and in other surrounding areas, while surface water also caused problems around Carlisle. Following a detailed study to identify the areas most at risk, the agency is contacting householders and business owners that could be affected. Information leaflets about preparing for flooding are also being distributed. Mark Garratt, its flood and coastal risk manager, said: “Knowing your flood risk is the first step to protecting your family and property. Once you know the risks, you can put measures in place to stay safe.”
Quoting atris:
Thanks Doc . Them winter storms keep a coming
Send some kind of storm to South Central Texas, 13 days straight of temps 80 to 91 with lows pretty warm also and no rain here to talk about since Sept 29th. This mornings low was 67. Average temps here are 48 to 72 for this time of year. We were hoping for El Nino now all I am hearing is La Nina is coming back. It is suppose to cool off some but it is bone dry here again. It does look like the Midwest to the Northeast will be getting all the storms for awhile. The storm tracks all look like they will stay off the north so those that are dry will remain dry and those that are too wet will continue to get wet.
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh OSCAT..not to the surface yet..
Do you think it would develop Skye?
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm always amused by those who make it known that they're placing someone with whom they've been debating on the ignore list. This, the forum equivalent of angrily picking up one's ball and going home, is as sure a sign as any that the person acknowledges they've lost. ;-)

But I have to say that it appears some here may still be struggling with the finer meaning of terms such as "dialog", or "discussion", or "debate". See, when in a public forum someone writes something to which others disagree, it's very common--indeed, expected--that those others will respond. So if someone "challenge[s] the logic and form of [my] argument", it's only natural that I would "continue it" by answering them in return. That's part of the dynamic, two-way, give-and-take nature of online debate. Anyone who cares to "challenge the logic and form of [an] argument" without themselves being challenged in return would be better off simply mumbling those challenges into an empty room so no one can hear them. Otherwise, it's all fair game.

On another note, it's important to keep in mind that the real value of any particular comment can't be measured by counting how many people respond to it, or quote it, or vote it up. No, the only true measure of a comment's worth is how many people find it useful, or thought-provoking, or touching, or profound. Popularity contests are for junior high school; grown-ups should try to use different metrics.


Really, you and others should heed that advice.

Back to empirical weather data:







Quoting CybrTeddy:
The 18z GFS developed a total of four systems in the last run.


The first one is by 66 hours from our disturbance out in the Atlantic. Weakens it quickly, so I doubt it would make so much as a 45mph Tropical Storm.

The second one is by 102 hours, north of Puerto Rico, and is probably a sub-tropical system.

The third one is by 150 hours, out by where the first developed, and is stronger.

The fourth one is similar to the second one, sub-tropical in nature.

That would take us to Beta. Guess is we'll see at least one more named this year.


Reaching Alpha is still just a fantasy, as extraordinary as it would be.
so i guess chat isnt working
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh OSCAT..not to the surface yet..


Nice swirl, Skye

...
Quoting Dragod66:
so i guess chat isnt working

That probably is a good thing right now...

Quoting KoritheMan:


Reaching Alpha is still just a fantasy, as extraordinary as it would be.

It would be really cool to see, a first for me as I wasn't as much into tropical weather in 05, but it is unlikely.
Quoting wxchaser97:

That probably is a good thing right now...


It would be really cool to see, a first for me as I wasn't as much into tropical weather in 05, but it is unlikely.


I remember telling my dad that Alpha was named (he's also into weather, enough that we have our own forecasts and disagreements) and he just laughed, like he wasn't surprised at all. 2005 was just that awesome.
Quoting wxchaser97:

That probably is a good thing right now...


It would be really cool to see, a first for me as I wasn't as much into tropical weather in 05, but it is unlikely.

yeah that would be kind of cool to see Alpha
Quoting calkevin77:
The pic of the flooded subway terminal that Dr. Master's posted is quite startling. My sister who lives in NYC also sent a few shots of her old neighborhood in the lower east side and that area had major flooding as well. I think Sandy was a wakeup call to all that when you have a significant amount of a city's infrastructure underground it doesn't take much water to bring the city to its knees. Even if the entire city had evacuated, there would still be quite a mess to mop up so to speak. Some of those tunnels in the subway system are pushing 80 years old so who knows if there has been any structural compromise to the system. Whoever can figure out how to self contain the system and effectively design the proverbial "subway storm door" will be a very rich man or woman.


Pushing 80 is kind of young. Under river tubes 100 feet below sea level and 104 years old were filled to the brim (Monday evening and served the public Saturday morning, lol)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I remember telling my dad that Alpha was named (he's also into weather, enough that we have our own forecasts and disagreements) and he just laughed, like he wasn't surprised at all. 2005 was just that awesome.

All I remember is the infamous storms and there being a lot of storms. If a season like that happened now, things would be different. My dad and I actually do things similar like that, he even has his own WU account. Luckily he doesn't come on here, at least not right now.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Luckily he doesn't come one here, at least not right now.
What are you implying? ;)
Quoting wxchaser97:

All I remember is the infamous storms and there being a lot of storms. If a season like that happened now, things would be different. My dad and I actually do things similar like that, he even has his own WU account. Luckily he doesn't come on here, at least not right now.

All i remember (considering my memory stinks) is hearing about Katirina and Rita. I don't remember as much about Wilma, Dennis or Emily.
And if my dad came on to WU... i'd get off :p
Quoting KoritheMan:
What are you implying? ;)
That it would be errr interesting and awkward with my dad and I both on here at the same time.
Well, the first Lake Effect Snow(LES) event looks to take shape in Michigan on Sunday and Monday. The CPC hazards map shows heavy snow threat on 11/12-11/13. There could also be a rain to snow event from the front. I will have more details on Sunday with my local forecast.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well, the first Lake Effect Snow(LES) event looks to take shape in Michigan on Sunday and Monday. The CPC hazards map shows heavy snow threat on 11/12-11/13.

Lucky.......................
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well, the first Lake Effect Snow(LES) event looks to take shape in Michigan on Sunday and Monday. The CPC hazards map shows heavy snow threat on 11/12-11/13. There could also be a rain to snow event from the front. I will have more details on Sunday with my local forecast.


Did I hear LES?? Haha, had to pop in. I see our AOI just NW of CV is back to 10%.
Quoting wxchaser97:
That it would be errr interesting and awkward with my dad and I both on here at the same time.


How would that be awkward? My dad lurks, and I'm sure he sees my comments all the time. I have nothing to hide. Do you?
Quoting Doppler22:

Lucky.......................

I know right, I am excited if that happens.
Me right now, link(there is no offensive language or anything like that)

Quoting Slamguitar:


Did I hear LES?? Haha, had to pop in. I see our AOI just NW of CV is back to 10%.

Hey fellow Michigander! I already saw my first trace with Sandy.
Quoting KoritheMan:


How would that be awkward? My dad lurks, and I'm sure he sees my comments all the time. I have nothing to hide. Do you?

It would be strange to be talking to him through the computer about the weather when he would be literally 10 feet away. I don't have anything to hide and I like my dad a lot.
... night people
Quoting eyeofbetsy:
For decades we've been told that sooner or later another hurricane was going to strike the northeast and cause catastrophic damage. There was no mention of global warming. Now that it has happened some are saying AGW is why it happened. Storms of that magnitude have probably hit the northeast U.S. two or three times a century for thousands of years. These alarmist only weaken their argument with such claims and it becomes more obvious it's agenda driven. And with Santa Claus back for four more years your agenda is full steam ahead.


This was the highest water since before there was no New York City! 400 years! And not by a little, by 2.68 feet! (over 11.2) And from mean sea level it's more like 11.3 vs. 8.6 The storm went almost westward! I guess the till-now damage might've been more than the average of many random butterfly effect simulations but you can't deny the record sea ice melt is stacking the deck.
Quoting wxchaser97:

It would be strange to be talking to him through the computer about the weather when he would be literally 10 feet away. I don't have anything to hide and I like my dad a lot.


I gotcha. Me and my brother used to do that (we'd talk to each other through Yahoo Instant Messenger) until we realized how stupid it was. Also, you merely "like" your dad? You don't love him? tsk tsk

(Kidding, in case that wasn't obvious. I know you're a good fellow)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I gotcha. Me and my brother used to do that (we'd talk to each other through Yahoo Instant Messenger) until we realized how stupid it was. Also, you merely "like" your dad? You don't love him? tsk tsk

(Kidding, in case that wasn't obvious. I know you're a good fellow)

Lol, of course I love him... I could tell you were joking. He just got back from a long business trip from Europe! He doesn't know about the very warm weekend, possible tropical development, and even some snow yet. I guess you could say I am slacking in telling him the latest weather info.
I sure hope my manager knows how much I love him. I was looking forward to sleeping in today, what with another 4:00 shift and all, but one of our guys is out of town for the weekend, so he wants me to cover 9:00 to 6:00 for him today and Sunday. Ugh.

I suppose the only positive is that I'm garnering a few more hours on an otherwise enormously destitute week.
Tonight is one of those nights/mornings where I could've been to sleep early but chose not to. I may be up another hour or two trying to work on a blog. Of course I have to be up between 7am and 8am this morning. Here is my snowfall and US weather graphic..
Quick question. Was Sandy a Hurricane on landfall or a Post-tropical cyclone?

I thought she transitioned to a PST 30miles from the coast.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quick question. Was Sandy a Hurricane on landfall or a Post-tropical cyclone?

I thought she transitioned to a PST 30miles from the coast.


Post-tropical.. Look back in Angela's blogs. Very recent..there was an excellent guest blogger that went over it with a fine tooth comb.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quick question. Was Sandy a Hurricane on landfall or a Post-tropical cyclone?

I thought she transitioned to a PST 30miles from the coast.

Sandy was post-tropical before landfall. I think it was the second to last advisory over water when she was declared post-tropical.
Quoting Manhattancane:


This was the highest water since before there was no New York City! 400 years! And not by a little, by 2.68 feet! (over 11.2) And from mean sea level it's more like 11.3 vs. 8.6 The storm went almost westward! I guess the till-now damage might've been more than the average of many random butterfly effect simulations but you can't deny the record sea ice melt is stacking the deck.


What's stacking the deck is that big burning ball of nuclear fusion hurling the solar winds at us. The magnectic field determines how much solar particles gets thru that affect the rate of water vapor production and thusly cloud cover. I don't believe there is any empirical evidence that CO2 drives climate. Many of the scientist producing that data say there are uncertainties, which pretty much means keep the grants coming for further study.
Test...
Some of my posts were being eaten on different blogs.

On this day in history...
On November 10, 1975 an infamous intense fall storm centered over the Great Lakes sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. 29 crew men lost their lives because of this storm.

Lastly, I have actually got some rain from a shower. While it doesn't sound significant, it is the first rain drops since Sandy basically.
I hate when this happens with the blog eating posts...ok it is working again.

For anyone who can see this, the latest Euro run is running. This is at 144hrs.
Blustery here in SE Utah (Moab), had some pea sized hail today and a bit of much needed rain, but not much. Not much else to say, so g'night, mates.

Quoting eyeofbetsy:


What's stacking the deck is that big burning ball of nuclear fusion hurling the solar winds at us. The magnectic field determines how much solar particles gets thru that affect the rate of water vapor production and thusly cloud cover. I don't believe there is any empirical evidence that CO2 drives climate. Many of the scientist producing that data say there are uncertainties, which pretty much means keep the grants coming for further study.
I would very much like to see this so called "data", because everything I've ever researched has definitely cited empirical evidence of CO2's inherent warming effect.
Quoting weatherdogg:


Obviously, the devil is in the details, namely (pun intended) how they define "named storm". I suspect the legalase in the insurance policy contracts is sophisticated enough to distinguish between a storm named by the NHC versus one named by a news agency or private company, but who knows.


They just might try. They're people out believing some election commission that they don't have appropriate identification so why should't there be house owners believing what the insurance is telling them. There is no judge if there is no indictment.
Quoting davemaine:
For those of you who have lived through more hurricanes than I...have you ever seen the sky light up rainbow colors? What I saw was definitely not lightning or transformers blowing up. This was the whole sky lighting up grass green, red, sometimes purple. The flashes of light lasted way longer than a typical flash of lightning and there was no thunder. I've never seen anything like it before. Scariest storm ever! Any idea what it was?

Thanks and I hope everyone affected by Sandy is safe!
Action: Quote | Ignore User



yes i am in central maine and during the 1998 ice storm i saw the similiar thing , tranformers lighting up the sky almost continuously. it was transformers blowing up, we lost power for 7 days with 10-20 degree weather no fun but unforgetable!!


I live in Sunrise (FL) and have been through quite a number of storms, including Andrew and Wilma.

Also wondered what the colorful flashes where. If they were transformers blowing then the light was getting transmitted in amazing fashion. Because what I saw was the kind of lightning that lights entire clouds up, and the colors were strange greens and blues.
Quoting Skyepony:


Post-tropical.. Look back in Angela's blogs. Very recent..there was an excellent guest blogger that went over it with a fine tooth comb.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Sandy was post-tropical before landfall. I think it was the second to last advisory over water when she was declared post-tropical.


So the 1st line of Dr Masters Blog should read.... Devastating Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report.

Correct or incorrect???
Quoting AussieStorm:


So the 1st line of Dr Masters Blog should read.... Devastating Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report.

Correct or incorrect???



HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
700 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

Quoting SunriseSteeda:


I live in Sunrise (FL) and have been through quite a number of storms, including Andrew and Wilma.

Also wondered what the colorful flashes where. If they were transformers blowing then the light was getting transmitted in amazing fashion. Because what I saw was the kind of lightning that lights entire clouds up, and the colors were strange greens and blues.

Gas excitation in the atmosphere. Colorful Lightning
Quoting Manhattancane:


This was the highest water since before there was no New York City! 400 years! And not by a little, by 2.68 feet! (over 11.2) And from mean sea level it's more like 11.3 vs. 8.6 The storm went almost westward! I guess the till-now damage might've been more than the average of many random butterfly effect simulations but you can't deny the record sea ice melt is stacking the deck.

Melting sea ice has zero effect on mean sea levels. It's ice melting on land that raises sea levels. Jam as many ice cubes as you can in a glass of coke and let me know if it overflows as the ice metls.
Good morning.

Cooler temperatures by Puerto Rico standards will be here this weekend as a cold front reaches us. Also, scattered showers moving from the Atlantic will reinforce that cooler feeling here. I love this kind of weather.
Quoting sar2401:

Melting sea ice has zero effect on mean sea levels. It's ice melting on land that raises sea levels. Jam as many ice cubes as you can in a glass of coke and let me know if it overflows as the ice metls.
He never mentioned rising sea levels. For years, scientists have been stating the obvious: that the sudden openness of millions of square kilometers of energy-absorbing polar waters was going to wreak havoc on "normal" weather patterns. And now there's much speculation that the abnormally strong blocking high that set up over Greenland and eventually helped direct Sandy westward--forcing the storm to move against its natural high-latitude inclination to recurve eastward--may have been strengthened by the incredible amount of suddenly available excess Arctic energy. I'm sure much research and many papers will result from the phenomenon; I'll be very curious as to the findings.
Good Morning Folks!.warming up here this week.....
GFS at 120 hours..............
around Tampa Bay thru monday.................
Quoting sar2401:

Melting sea ice has zero effect on mean sea levels. It's ice melting on land that raises sea levels. Jam as many ice cubes as you can in a glass of coke and let me know if it overflows as the ice metls.


Sar,

Melting sea ice allows more water vapor to get into the Arctic atmosphere and that also adds energy to that atmosphere. That energy is transported southward in the waves of the jet stream and will cause havoc in the temperate regions for the next couple of months. Probably by 01/13 that affect will be gone but there will be significant snow cover in portions of the Northern Hemisphere.

If you're interested in these subjects, google Jennifer Francis and check out some of her lectures. They are very informative. My favorite is her longest one, however this one is to the point.
SREFF is showing a significant tornado outbreak late today along a squall line Oklahoma to Nebraska.

Mid-level jet over 100 knots

Stay tuned

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=l atest&id=SREF_prob_sigtor_3__
This is great news for the clean up efforts up there.....
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS.

FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET PERIOD TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE US. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE BACK
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TREK NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR NEW YORK...SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY...RESULTING IN
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.

&&
Down to 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMING FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting percylives:


Sar,

Melting sea ice allows more water vapor to get into the Arctic atmosphere and that also adds energy to that atmosphere. That energy is transported southward in the waves of the jet stream and will cause havoc in the temperate regions for the next couple of months. Probably by 01/13 that affect will be gone but there will be significant snow cover in portions of the Northern Hemisphere.

If you're interested in these subjects, google Jennifer Francis and check out some of her lectures. They are very informative. My favorite is her longest one, however this one is to the point.


Just to play the other side of the coin. A lot more and early snow is what I am reading in your post, right?

Snow reflects more sunlight because it is 'white' and not 'dark'. At least this is the argument given by the warming feedback loop in the arctic. Less snow/ice the more it melts...

Sounds like this is a way for 'mother nature' to balance out the temperature. (or at least mitigate)
I cannot imagine being without power and heat for weeks and weeks and weeks, maybe not even at thanksgiving..geez...Nearly two weeks after Hurricane Sandy knocked out power to millions of people, weary Queens residents still without electricity and heat blasted FEMA, LIPA and Con Edison on Friday for keeping them in the dark.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/queens/queens- calls-faster-recovery-efforts-article-1.1199737#ix zz2Bp2utGRq
A tremendous amount of damage was done before sandy made landfall or transitioned to post tropical cyclone. How will you determine how much damage was done prior to landfall or the name or classification of the storm being changed? If anything it probably should be call hurricane/post tropical cyclone sandy in my opinion. I know the naming is important for insurance purposes, but it still wreaked enough havoc to be labeled hurricane?
No power and no heat in the Northeast at this time of year has got to be horrific. I feel for the people there.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

Cooler temperatures by Puerto Rico standards will be here this weekend as a cold front reaches us. Also, scattered showers moving from the Atlantic will reinforce that cooler feeling here. I love this kind of weather.
Signs of the season for us here in "The island of the Enchantment", this is typical November weather, we "jibaros" (hillbillys), call it "nortes", or "northerns", Christmas is in the air...WEEEPA !!!!
NASA seem to be getting their global temperature data out a little more quickly than usual. Globally, October was the second warmest October on record, at 0.69 degrees C above the 1951-80 average.

Link


Oddly, despite the record minimum Arctic Ocean sea ice area in September, the northern hemisphere average temperature for October was only the eighth warmest on record, at 0.77 degrees C above average.

And October in the southern hemisphere was the warmest October on record - by a whopping 0.09 degrees C. I wonder what caused that?

Link
Quoting Dakster:


Just to play the other side of the coin. A lot more and early snow is what I am reading in your post, right?

Snow reflects more sunlight because it is 'white' and not 'dark'. At least this is the argument given by the warming feedback loop in the arctic. Less snow/ice the more it melts...

Sounds like this is a way for 'mother nature' to balance out the temperature. (or at least mitigate)


Yes, this could be a very snowy fall and early winter in the temperate zone.

At Cryosphere Today's Interactive display today is a new record low for this date in the ice coverage of the Arctic. Today's reading is over 350,000 sq. km. below the old sea ice coverage minimum record set for this date in 2009.

The significant danger is in very slow moving jet stream waves. As Dr. Francis points out this could mean that a blizzard scenario could get stuck over a certain area and dump record amounts of snow, amounts we aren't prepared for. At this point we need to ask, is NYC or Washington, DC, ready for a blizzard that lasts for 4 days and drops 15 feet of snow on the city? Then the temps stay well below freezing for 3 weeks? The warming Arctic makes this a possibility.
This has probably been explained but....can someone tell me why CNN is naming winter storms. Aren't these the usual winter storms we see every year?
Never mind. I googled it.
Good Morning..00z CMC







Just had a dream that the TV said "while this is very far out, FutureCast shows three nor'easters forming in a line interacting with a Cape Verde-type system strengthening it into a hurricane and the temperature reaches 98 in November." The thing grew a pretty large eyewall that nearly touched New York City and probably touched at least Massachusetts.
Quoting Dakster:
No power and no heat in the Northeast at this time of year has got to be horrific. I feel for the people there.
Dak......I'm sure it is absolutely terrible, BUT, I aways hate to see the utility companies getting ragged on...These poor linemen from all over the country are working unbelieveable hours, and in unbelieveable conditions, trying to get these people back in power... Just like FPL linemen that do not experience the cold weather here in south Florida... Our guys are not prepared. Just like every hurricane we have had here in Florida the utility companies "ALWAYS" are blamed for the slow progress of getting power back. I honestly think the the utility companies are a "scape goat" when things don't go to their liking. I really do feel sorry for the people up north, but please don't pin all of the blame on the poor guys out there working their butts off that are away from their families trying their best to get it done.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 10 2012
======================================

A low pressure area may form over central parts of south Bay of Bengal around November 14th.
If the GFS is right, we will reach the Greek letters in less than 5 days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If the GFS is right, we will reach the Greek letters in less than 5 days.


Yup, willing to bet we will see at least one more named, making 2012 tied with 1933 as the 2nd most active hurricane season in history (1933 used to have 21, but was knocked down to 20 and added two Category 5 hurricanes to the list)
"This summer the North Carolina Senate passed a bill banning researchers from reporting predicted increases in the rate of sea level rise. But the ocean, unbound by legislation, is rising anyway — and in North Carolina this rise is accelerating, researchers reported here yesterday (Nov. 6) at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America....

If democracy is such a good idea, how do we explain that such unutterably stupid people wind up as our elected leaders?

Link
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!.warming up here this week.....




That is due to a developing ridge pattern in the east. Probably a couple weeks of relatively warm weather before a trough pattern takes hold again and the cold spills back into our area.
Study: Climate change fulfilling most dire predictions

Link

(sorry if already posted)
"Three feet of snow fell south of Ulm, thanks to a constant band of precipitation falling Thursday and Friday, National Weather Service meteorologist Jonathan Suk said...."

(Great Falls, MT, news)

Link
Quoting Jedkins01:

Midday 100% midnight 0% LOL
Quoting percylives:


Sar,

Melting sea ice allows more water vapor to get into the Arctic atmosphere and that also adds energy to that atmosphere. That energy is transported southward in the waves of the jet stream and will cause havoc in the temperate regions for the next couple of months. Probably by 01/13 that affect will be gone but there will be significant snow cover in portions of the Northern Hemisphere.

If you're interested in these subjects, google Jennifer Francis and check out some of her lectures. They are very informative. My favorite is her longest one, however this one is to the point.


Back when I went to college, now some time ago, we were taught that the melting ice would not be the major factor in rising sea levels, as the expanded volume of the over all warmer waters was what would make the real impact. Or am I misremembering?

Physics peeps: If you heat a liter of water by 5 Centigrade, how much of an increase in volume is there, assuming that the water was at roughly room temperature to start?
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
"Three feet of snow fell south of Ulm, thanks to a constant band of precipitation falling Thursday and Friday, National Weather Service meteorologist Jonathan Suk said...."

(Great Falls, MT, news)

Link


Up to 4 feet of snow in Montana as storm hits West
Link
Quoting LargoFl:
I cannot imagine being without power and heat for weeks and weeks and weeks, maybe not even at thanksgiving..geez...Nearly two weeks after Hurricane Sandy knocked out power to millions of people, weary Queens residents still without electricity and heat blasted FEMA, LIPA and Con Edison on Friday for keeping them in the dark.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/queens/queens- calls-faster-recovery-efforts-article-1.1199737#ix zz2Bp2utGRq


FEMA ‏@fema
Reminder: check out the new @FEMASandy for all things related to the ongoing Hurricane #Sandy recovery efforts http://www.fema.gov/sandy
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
"This summer the North Carolina Senate passed a bill banning researchers from reporting predicted increases in the rate of sea level rise. But the ocean, unbound by legislation, is rising anyway %u2014 and in North Carolina this rise is accelerating, researchers reported here yesterday (Nov. 6) at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America....

If democracy is such a good idea, how do we explain that such unutterably stupid people wind up as our elected leaders?

Link


you got nothing else better to do on a saturday morning but wake up and get on a weather board and call people you have never met in your life stupid on account of a group called the "Geological Society of America"..good thing the "Bridge Players Of North America" didn't vote down the new rule of 5 hand draw or you will be going after them too and calling them stupid..everyone else living above the bridge have a good day!
Billings,Montana webcam and info..

I think Global warming is over. It is only 70 here today in Fort Lauderdale. I have noticed the temperatures dropping the past few weeks now.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Dak......I'm sure it is absolutely terrible, BUT, I aways hate to see the utility companies getting ragged on...These poor linemen from all over the country are working unbelieveable hours, and in unbelieveable conditions, trying to get these people back in power... Just like FPL linemen that do not experience the cold weather here in south Florida... Our guys are not prepared. Just like every hurricane we have had here in Florida the utility companies "ALWAYS" are blamed for the slow progress of getting power back. I honestly think the the utility companies are a "scape goat" when things don't go to their liking. I really do feel sorry for the people up north, but please don't pin all of the blame on the poor guys out there working their butts off that are away from their families trying their best to get it done.
H

I do not know how you got that out of my post. I have worked disaster areas and I know that there are long hours and thousands out there doing their best. I am NOT blaming the workers for anything. Sandy caused it. As horrible as it is here without power, to me it would be horrific to be in freezing temps and snow without heat. (assumes you need power to heat your house - most people I know in the NE do need power for heat)
FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) Stay connected in #NJ: Locations are available for charging your phone and connecting to Wi-Fi. http://ow.ly/f81j7 #Sandy


FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) #Queens, #Brooklyn, #StatenIsland residents: click here for food/water/blanket distribution sites: http://ow.ly/fbfd0 , 12-4pm
ABC 33/40 Storm Chaser Live!

Live Video streaming by Ustream

Storm Spotter Training
New York governor Andrew Cuomo said yesterday that Hurricane Sandy caused $33 billion in his state alone. The final damage total for the storm will probably surpass $60 billion.

On a good note (I guess...), the death toll has stopped at 113 in the United States.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
New York governor Andrew Cuomo said yesterday that Hurricane Sandy caused $33 billion in his state alone. The final damage total for the storm will probably surpass $60 billion.

On a good note (I guess...), the death toll has stopped at 113 in the United States.



So much for that $150 Billion dollar storm damage, the media was forecasting along with Rick Ackerman...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
New York governor Andrew Cuomo said yesterday that Hurricane Sandy caused $33 billion in his state alone. The final damage total for the storm will probably surpass $60 billion.

On a good note (I guess...), the death toll has stopped at 113 in the United States.


2 billion in Cuba, a good 2-3 billion in Jamaica, 20 billion in New Jersey, 10 billion elsewhere. So, I think around 63 billion sounds right.

Anyone got a good replacement name for Sandy btw?

Thinking Sandra would be fine.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
"If democracy is such a good idea, how do we explain that such unutterably stupid people wind up as our elected leaders?

Link
The AVERAGE IQ is 100. Case closed.
I think naming winter storms is a bad idea. Now everytime you turn on the T.V. you hear about a storm with a name.
To me, that will have the opposite effect of warning people.

People will get so used to hearing named storms that they will begin to ignore them.

I feel that named storms should be left for Tropical system.

This is just my opionion, but it seems to be shared by all my friends, family, and people I work with.
Good late morning everyone, I see the GFS has shown the Greek alphabet at times. I highly doubt that will happen, more like one or maybe two storms. Also the 12z run is out to 108hrs.
Quoting ncstorm:


you got nothing else better to do on a saturday morning but wake up and get on a weather board and call people you have never met in your life stupid on account of a group called the "Geological Society of America"..good thing the "Bridge Players Of North America" didn't vote down the new rule of 5 hand draw or you will be going after them too and calling them stupid..everyone else living above the bridge have a good day!
If ever anything deserved to be called stupid, it was this past summer's vote by North Carolina's General Assembly to outright reject science. And no one needs to have met that group's "yay" voters to know just how utterly stupid they were.

To recap the story in brief: scientists advising North Carolina's Coastal Resources Commission said that, based on numerous scientific studies, the state should prepare for about 39 inches of sea level rise by 2100. A coastal economic development group--NC-20--decided that wouldn't work for them, and that denialism of science would be more profitable. So this group of developers convinced a majority of the Republican-led General Assembly to pass a law requiring that those scientists not be listened to in favor of making up their own simplistic, non-scientific projections that, of course, predict a far smaller sea level rise in North Carolina. Because, you know, oceanside condos for everyone!

Stupid. Stupid, stupid, stupid...


where is the Azores high?
Morning all.

I think storms like Sandy come along every now and again to remind us that there but for the grace of God go I... IOW, it was easy for some pple away from the impacts of Katrina to talk about "why do they live there if hurricanes can cause so much devastation?"... and call people stupid for rebuilding in the same area. But there have been so many devastating natural disasters just in the US over the last 10 years, many wx related, that I can't understand how anybody can take this holier-than-thou stance. It's really "luckier-than-thou", isn't it?

My heart, and my prayers, go out to the NY / NJ residents still without power in this colder time of the year. When we endure weeks without power in November in the temperate zone, at least we don't also have to worry about freezing to death.... :o/
Quoting Dragod66:


where is the Azores high?

I stole it...jk.
Quoting Neapolitan:
If ever anything deserved to be called stupid, it was this past summer's vote by North Carolina's General Assembly to outright reject science. And no one needs to have met that group's "yay" voters to know just how utterly stupid they were.

To recap the story in brief: scientists advising North Carolina's Coastal Resources Commission said that, based on numerous scientific studies, the state should prepare for about 39 inches of sea level rise by 2100. A coastal economic development group--NC-20--decided that wouldn't work for them, and that denialism of science would be more profitable. So this group of developers convinced a majority of the Republican-led General Assembly to pass a law requiring that those scientists not be listened to in favor of making up their own simplistic, non-scientific projections that, of course, predict a far smaller sea level rise in North Carolina. Because, you know, oceanside condos for everyone!

Stupid. Stupid, stupid, stupid...


Big Brother and $$$= Blind Avid Denial
Quoting Grothar:
I think Global warming is over. It is only 70 here today in Fort Lauderdale. I have noticed the temperatures dropping the past few weeks now.

It's only 75 here in Nassau. Sandy brought winter with her, despite the fact she came from the south...
FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) @fema staff will be across #NY today in: #RichmondCounty, #StatenIsland, #Manhattan, #NewYorkCounty.

FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) @fema staff will be across #NY today in: #Jamaica, #RockawayBeach, #QueensCounty, #Bronx, #WestchesterCounty.

FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) @fema staff will be across #NY today in: #SuffolkCounty, #Bellmore, #NassauCounty, #Brooklyn, #KingsCounty.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2 billion in Cuba, a good 2-3 billion in Jamaica, 20 billion in New Jersey, 10 billion elsewhere. So, I think around 63 billion sounds right.

Anyone got a good replacement name for Sandy btw?

Thinking Sandra would be fine.

Sananda or Sara sounds cool to me. Also isn't Sandra just the longer version of Sandy?
Quoting wxchaser97:

I stole it...jk.


thief!... jk
Quoting Dragod66:


where is the Azores high?

It went on Holiday.
G'morning wxchaser97,
Did you post a new blog update on "Brutus"?
If you did I don't see it..
Quoting pcola57:
G'morning wxchaser97,
Did you post a new blog update on "Brutus"?
If you did I don't see it..

I had problems with WU last night so I wasn't able to complete it...
You can even see on the last page in the 180s I said test a couple times as my posts weren't appearing. I also wasn't able to preview my entry when I was making it so I just decided to go to bed then.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2 billion in Cuba, a good 2-3 billion in Jamaica, 20 billion in New Jersey, 10 billion elsewhere. So, I think around 63 billion sounds right.

Anyone got a good replacement name for Sandy btw?

Thinking Sandra would be fine.


I think, if we have to ever use a replacement for a J name...it should be Jennifer.
Quoting eyeofbetsy:


What's stacking the deck is that big burning ball of nuclear fusion hurling the solar winds at us. The magnectic field determines how much solar particles gets thru that affect the rate of water vapor production and thusly cloud cover. I don't believe there is any empirical evidence that CO2 drives climate. Many of the scientist producing that data say there are uncertainties, which pretty much means keep the grants coming for further study.


This is not true. The sunspot level might've caused the warming trend to look like it did in the past but they can't fight today's more powerful CO2 levels. We had monster sunspots in 1957-1958 and the record low sea ice is now. And if the trend continues, the Maunder minimum will come back (as soon as 2015), the sunspots will disappear, and we'll still have most of the global warming. Decades of Litle Ice Age occured the last time that happened, causing extemely dense wood and Stradivarius violins that will never be reproduced (though volcanoes might've greatly helped).

They use supercomputers with tens of terabytes of RAM and thousands of terabytes of storage and still can't get grid cells smaller than tens of kilometers (or at least, not small enough to predict the number of tornados. That's why there are uncertainties. (maybe not enough measurements too) And I think scientists have incentive to avoid uncertainties as much as they can to: 1. find more than their colleagues and get more grants, 2. intellectual curiosity, 3. uncertainty (and any discovered lying) hurts the warmists ability to convince wacko or self-interested deniers and their sheeple about reality, 4. the sooner enough do something about it the less harm to humans, 5. I bet a lot genuinely care and have some empathy for humanity, unlike the selfish oil companies, wealthier folks and the like that probably pull most of the real strings of the denialist movement, even going so far as intentionally spreading uncertainty and doubt by doing the same biased non-peer reviewed studies that tobacco companies did to show that their product was "safe", and 6. No one goes into science for the money, scientists are very smart and would've made millions more in finance if they were Machievelian and self-interested enough to lie. 7. there's peer review and experiments get repeated (independently), 8. grant money can only be used for more research, not for spending, 9. they probably do it cause they like it. People that like finding out what has never been known before like doing research and finding out as much as they can, "not keeping some of it in reserve" (and if some did this they would fall behind on usefulness of giving them grant money), 10. I guess they could always go into weather forecasting if we ever find out "too much", i.e. "more than we need" and climatology funding gets smaller. (and that won't happen for a while) And that willl never run out. The butterfly effect ensures that we will never have weather predictions longer ramge than is useful.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I had problems with WU last night so I wasn't able to complete it...


Ok..just was looking forward to it..
Possibly today may be better for it.. :)
Quoting pcola57:


Ok..just was looking forward to it..
Possibly today may be better for it.. :)

Working for me now and one is in progress.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Working for me now and one is in progress.


I'll be looking forward to it..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2 billion in Cuba, a good 2-3 billion in Jamaica, 20 billion in New Jersey, 10 billion elsewhere. So, I think around 63 billion sounds right.

Anyone got a good replacement name for Sandy btw?

Thinking Sandra would be fine.


Samantha or Sapphire :P
Quoting eyeofbetsy:


I don't believe there is any empirical evidence that CO2 drives climate.


Greenhouses with extra CO2 get hotter than greenhouses without. It's your job to rebut that presumption.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And I think you're a creep. Welcome to ignore.


Oversensitive...
Quoting Dragod66:


Samantha or Sapphire :P

I know about 5 Samantha's or Sam's but no Sapphire's, lol.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And I think you're a creep. Welcome to ignore.

You're not the only one who thinks that.
Wonderful day for football in the Southeast..

Quoting wxchaser97:

You're not the only one who thinks that.


No...
196 AussieStorm: So the 1st line of Dr Masters Blog should read.... Devastating Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report.

Using the BS that the NWS pulled as the criteria, one would also have to have previously headlined "Hurricane Sandy Misses the Bahamas..." followed by the first line of "...except for the southwestern and northwestern tips of Cat Island and northern Elbow Cay."
Quoting pcola57:
Wonderful day for football in the Southeast..


It may be cloudy right now in MI, but it is warm(54F) here. It should get near 60F today which is really warm for November.
SPC put in a 30% wind risk for today... they had 30% on the Day 2 outlook yesterday morning, then they took it out and now it's back in:

Quoting wxchaser97:

It may be cloudy right now in MI, but it is warm(54F) here. It should get near 60F today which is really warm for November.


I bet those temps won't last too awful long..
You watching football today?
Not good for me... There would be some snow with this.
288hrs
Big storm over the US on the 12z GFS in 11-12 days:



Quoting pcola57:


I bet those temps won't last too awful long..
You watching football today?

I am definitely watching college football today. I am actually going to the Michigan vs Iowa game next week so I am hoping for good weather then.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Sananda or Sara sounds cool to me. Also isn't Sandra just the longer version of Sandy?
Sandra is also in use in the Eastern Pacific.
It's not that long since the average annual rise in atmospheric CO2 was 1.5 ppm. That was the figure that was, and often still is, quoted in the literature.

However, for the past ten years the average annual rise has been 2.1 ppm. This is a hugely important development which is largely being ignored. Maybe scientists don't want to be accused of scaremongering. The annual increase fluctuates a lot, and ten years isn't that long, so maybe they think it might be a 'blip'.

Those scientists who have drawn attention to it, have suggested increased industrialization and affluence in the east, particularly China, is the cause. While that will contribute, my own theory is that warming oceans are becoming less efficient carbon sinks.

The record year for high SSTs is the record El Nino year of 1998. Atmospheric CO2 surged by almost 3 ppm that year, another record. 3 ppm would have been equivalent to all anthropogenic CO2 for 1998.

The colder regions of the ocean absorb CO2, while the warmer regions outgas it. So, as the ocean warms, it will absorb a diminishing fraction of man made CO2. But, it gets scarier. There is no reason why the ocean would not warm to the point where it became a net emitter of CO2. This is a nightmare scenario. I have no idea to what extent the models factor this in, but it wouldn't surprise me if they ignore it completely due to the uncertainties involved.

There is a good correlation between global SSTs and annual rises in CO2. I posted a table illustrating the correlation on a local Internet forum a few years ago. I'll see if I can find it and repost it here, but as it's in tabular form, it might not cut and paste.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I am definitely watching college football today. I am actually going to the Michigan vs Iowa game next week so I am hoping for good weather then.


I hope so too..
Well gotta get going..
I'll look for your update later..
BBL
Quoting pcola57:


I hope so too..
Well gotta get going..
I'll look for your update later..
BBL

Bye pcola.
The update is about the AOI and "Brutus".
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Big storm over the US on the 12z GFS in 11-12 days:



Pleaseeee I hope this holds true this winter as I really want to see snow.Sorry N.J and N.Y someone's got to suffer.
Quoting allancalderini:
Sandra is also in use in the Eastern Pacific.

Ahhh yes it is, so then we wouldn't have it as an Atlantic name.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Pleaseeee I hope this holds true this winter as I really want to see snow this winter.Sorry N.J and N.Y someone's got to suffer.

If that solution somehow happens, you and I would get accumulating snow. The NAO is expected to plummet negative so it isn't impossible to get a big storm.
Follow on to post #282


The solubility of CO2 in water is dependent on two main factors, temperature and the amount of CO2 already dissolved in it. Cold water absorbs CO2 from the air more readily than warm water, but cold water that already has a lot of CO2 dissolved in it doesn't take it up as readily as cold water with relatively low amounts of dissolved CO2.

Most of the absorption takes place in the colder regions of the ocean, while the warmer tropical ocean outgasses CO2. Up until recently, this has resuled in about half of man made CO2 emissions being absorbed with the other half (about 1.5 ppm) remaining in the atmosphere, but this is beginning to change.

Below is a table going back to 1980. The first column is the global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for that year (positive since 1977). The second column is the amount by which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased in that year. There's a close match between the size of the anomaly and the amount of extra CO2. Of particular interest is the 'rebound' effect. If you get a particularly warm year followed by a particularly cool year, more CO2 than usual gets absorbed because the water is not only relatively cool, but also has a relatively low concentration of CO2 due to the previous year having been warm. Obviously, the opposite is true. A particularly cool year followed by a particularly warm year usually results in a surge in annual CO2 levels. The correlation is quite rough, but definite, nonetheless.

This rebound effect is most noticeable when two cool years are followed by a warm year or two warm years are followed by a cool year. For example, the relatively cool years of '81 and '82 were followed by a rebound in '83 which saw the highest annual CO2 rise recorded until then. This was followed by three relatively cool years, then the warm year of '87 saw the record broken with an extra 2.3 ppm of CO2 being added to the atmosphere. The two warm years of '90 and '91, were followed by a cool year when only 0.49 ppm of CO2 was added to the atmosphere. The warmest SST year on record coincided with the record EL Nino of 1998. That year saw a record 2.93 ppm of CO2 being added to the atmosphere, equivalent to almost all the CO2 produced by man in that year.


1979 0.115C 1.16 ppm
1980 0.106C 1.84 ppm
1981 0.083C 1.41 ppm
1982 0.085C 0.71 ppm
1983 0.180C 2.18 ppm
1984 0.068C 1.39 ppm
1985 0.024C 1.23 ppm
1986 0.066C 1.51 ppm
1987 0.223C 2.30 ppm
1988 0.202C 2.14 ppm
1989 0.148C 1.24 ppm
1990 0.248C 1.32 ppm
1991 0.219C 1.00 ppm
1992 0.121C 0.49 ppm
1993 0.129C 1.26 ppm
1994 0.187C 1.96 ppm
1995 0.257C 1.98 ppm
1996 0.188C 1.19 ppm
1997 0.362C 1.93 ppm
1998 0.474C 2.93 ppm
1999 0.258C 1.35 ppm
2000 0.278C 1.24 ppm
2001 0.382C 1.85 ppm
2002 0.410C 2.39 ppm
2003 0.445C 2.21 ppm
2004 0.434C 1.61 ppm
2005 0.424C 2.41 ppm
2006 0.347C 1.79 ppm

I don't have SST figures for the last two years, but atmospheric CO2 increased by 2.17 ppm in 2007 and 2.28 ppm in 2008. It's clear the rate of warming has increased a lot in the past ten years and the amount of CO2 that stays in the atmosphere has also increased significantly. The strong 'rebound' correlations leave me in little doubt where the atmospheric CO2 surge is coming from and it isn't China.

Quoting wxchaser97:

If that solution somehow happens, you and I would get accumulating snow. The NAO is expected to plummet negative so it isn't impossible to get a big storm.
Yes If memory serves me correctly the winter of 09-10 had a relatively negative NAO most of the winter.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes If memory serves me correctly the winter of 09-10 had a relatively negative NAO most of the winter.

I forget if the winter of 08-09 or 09-10 was the one where it was an el nino winter with less snow for me. No matter what negative NAO does help.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I forget if the winter of 08-09 or 09-10 was the one where it was an el nino winter with less snow for me. No matter what negative NAO does help.
That would be the winter of 09-10.The mid-Atlantic had all the snow while the mid-west an onward had a no show winter.It was also a el nio.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That would be the winter of 09-10.The mid-Atlantic had all the snow while the mid-west an onward had a no show winter.It was also a el ni%uFFFDo.

That is what I thought but I wasn't a 100% sure. I still got more snow that winter than 2011-2012. Also this winter won't be an el nino one but more neutral.
If that solution on post #279 came true, we would get rain along the East Coast. That storm is over the Great Lakes, there by putting the East Coast in strong Southwesterly winds, so no snow. It has to be just off the East coast for us to get major snow.
Quoting Jedkins01:

Post 226, that always happens with my math tests-__-
The GFS and ECMWF agree that the tail-end of this frontal boundary across the Central Atlantic will break off and retrograde westward while slowly developing. It's barely noticeable at hours 24 and 48 on the GFS, but by 72 hours we've got a well-defined wave signature south-southeast of Bermuda, and by 96 hours we've got an intensifying tropical cyclone to the north of the island. It's relatively short-lived though, as it completes extratropical transition by 144 hours.

Should be named "Valerie".

The new GFS has something near Bermuda. It looks like a sub-tropical storm.
I dont think it will plummet.
Quoting wxchaser97:

If that solution somehow happens, you and I would get accumulating snow. The NAO is expected to plummet negative so it isn't impossible to get a big storm.
In case someone might be feeling a bit off-kilter this morning: Link

Mercury has been found to a happy planet.

And I guess the wave in the eastern Atlantic is history, what a waste of a well-defined circulation. Buuut we still may be getting a V storm soon, according to the reliable models.
Quoting wxchaser97:

That is what I thought but I wasn't a 100% sure. I still got more snow that winter than 2011-2012. Also this winter won't be an el nino one but more neutral.
I think this winter will remind me more of 02-03(ironically).That winter had its moments.February was quite snowy for us here.I can't forget the president's day blizzard we had that month as well.
Quoting hydrus:
I dont think it will plummet.

Well it was shown doing it earlier... It does go negative though.
I saw a contrail this morning.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think this winter will remind me more of 02-03(ironically).That winter had its moments.February was quite snowy for us here.I can't forget the president's day blizzard we had that month as well.

I was too young to remember details about that winter. I can't forget the president's day snowstorm I had in 2011, about a foot of snow fell.
Quoting Grothar:
I saw a contrail this morning.


I was going to respond to your comment...but, the reflection of me on the monitor, has me distracted... How about that for Narcissistic...
M 4.3 - EASTERN KENTUCKY - 2012-11-10 17:08:12 UTC http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php ?id=291986
Quoting ncstorm:


you got nothing else better to do on a saturday morning but wake up and get on a weather board and call people you have never met in your life stupid on account of a group called the "Geological Society of America"..good thing the "Bridge Players Of North America" didn't vote down the new rule of 5 hand draw or you will be going after them too and calling them stupid..everyone else living above the bridge have a good day!


So, it sounds like it upsets you that it gets noticed that your civic leaders try to legislate awareness of rising sea levels out of existence?

Pff!~ That explains alot!

Please, though, don't whine here when the next ten year event sea storm glubs your coast like a thousand year event!

You have a nice day too.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I was too young to remember details about that winter. I can't forget the president's day snowstorm I had in 2011, about a foot of snow fell.
We here at my house got 17".The kids were happy they got a extra day off of school while me and hubby had to shovel out the cars and stair way.That was back when I didn't really need the avil like that.
Quoting Grothar:
I think Global warming is over. It is only 70 here today in Fort Lauderdale. I have noticed the temperatures dropping the past few weeks now.



LOL.

One thing I noticed with this snowstorm here in Montana these last couple 'a days: It seems to have taken an unusual amount of time for the ground beneath the snow to freeze ... this made for a misery of slush beneath the snow. Just one observation, but still, the question in the offing is "Why so much?"

Well, pretty duh: There is more heat content in the ground on this occasion.

Then it becomes natural enough to wonder if the global warming models take into consideration the heat capacity of the ground.
Looks like some mild weather on tap for us here in North Jersey--hopefully we can enjoy that as the snow melts and the cleanup continues. My thoughts are with all the workers out there shoveling out mud, repairing train tracks, working on utility poles, and otherwise assisting with the restoration efforts.

My mass transit situation is still a real mess. My area fared pretty well during the nor'easter and the snow is melting quickly, though, so hopefully we'll continue to see some good progress.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


So, it sounds like it upsets you that it gets noticed that your civic leaders try to legislate awareness of rising sea levels out of existence?

Pff!~ That explains alot!

Please, though, don't whine here when the next ten year event sea storm glubs your coast like a thousand year event!

You have a nice day too.


I could care less about climate change..Ice melting ANYWHERE is not going to convince me..NC has a lot to work on in coming around to a changing america that I can agree with..its the name calling that I cant stand on this blog..my priority along with the national exit polls show that climate change or GW is NOT a priority on most american minds..60% of americans are worried about our economy..10 years from now? heck tomorrow isnt promised to anyone..its sad that people live in this world and worry about a fictional hollywood movie tidal wave taking them out instead of focusing on their families and how to provide for them now in the present sense..you have a good day as well!


jus a swirl over the ocean...
Quoting lhwhelk:
The AVERAGE IQ is 100. Case closed.


Which, if you think about it, that pretty well in itself explains why people of genius level intelligence are always going insane: People too stupid to breathe out there making decisions.


Average IQ, by definition, is 100. Each standard deviation is about 10 points. "Retards" (I forget the PC term for that at the moment, sorry) are in the '70s. Average doctor and lawyer about 120- 140. Genius is east of 140 .... 150... 170 ... imagine how frustrating it must be to have your doctor and lawyer as clueless relative to yourself as a retard is to an average person.

Any person with actual awareness in NC must feel as though they have inadvertently incarnated in a Kafka novel. Poor things!
There is a lot of rain forecast with this next system.
Quoting jerseybreakfast:
Looks like some mild weather on tap for us here in North Jersey--hopefully we can enjoy that as the snow melts and the cleanup continues. My thoughts are with all the workers out there shoveling out mud, repairing train tracks, working on utility poles, and otherwise assisting with the restoration efforts.

My mass transit situation is still a real mess. My area fared pretty well during the nor'easter and the snow is melting quickly, though, so hopefully we'll continue to see some good progress.
yes this calmer drier weather will help them with the clean up..cudo's to the workers for sure...good luck up there ok
thats one powerful front in the midwest,pay attention to your local warnings folks.................................
Quoting ncstorm:


I could care less about climate change..Ice melting ANYWHERE is not going to convince me..NC has a lot to work on in coming around to a changing america that I can agree with..its the name calling that I cant stand on this blog..my priority along with the national exit polls show that climate change or GW is NOT a priority on most american minds..60% of americans are worried about our economy..10 years from now? heck tomorrow isnt promised to anyone..its sad that people live in this world and worry about a fictional hollywood movie tidal wave taking them out instead of focusing on their families and how to provide for them now in the present sense..you have a good day as well!


Well, if it was the NC House that tired to legislate out of existence awareness of rising sea levels, or any science that might conceivably indicate that, well, you'd say "Ehn!~ ...It's just the House."

But the Senate???

If you apply the probes of any OMG meter to that one, the needle races off to the Red Zone.

Not even tearful Jesus on the Wing can intercede .
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Well, if it was the NC House that tired to legislate awareness of rising sea levels, or any science that might conceivably indicate that, well, you'd say "Ehn!~ ...It's just the House."

But the Senate???

If you apply the probes of any OMG meter to that one, the needle races off to the Red Zone.

Not even tearful Jesus on the Wing can intercede .
more important is the drinking water quality in our water supplies all over the country, that is an immediate concern for all
Quoting ncstorm:


I could care less about climate change..Ice melting ANYWHERE is not going to convince me..NC has a lot to work on in coming around to a changing america that I can agree with..its the name calling that I cant stand on this blog..my priority along with the national exit polls show that climate change or GW is NOT a priority on most american minds..60% of americans are worried about our economy..10 years from now? heck tomorrow isnt promised to anyone..its sad that people live in this world and worry about a fictional hollywood movie tidal wave taking them out instead of focusing on their families and how to provide for them now in the present sense..you have a good day as well!
MontanaZephyr wanted me and other Washingtonians dead and buried under 100 feet of snow.So don't pay them no mind.

Right now what ever climate change is doing it's tolerable.As long as it doesn't reach into it's 100's in October-March and with the Potomac river running into my house my priorities are family paying bills ect..
000
ABNT20 KNHC 101749
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
November storms can be deadly. Here is one of the worst.Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950Surface Analysis showing cyclone near time of maximum intensity on November 25, 1950Storm type Nor'easter
Formed November 24, 1950
Dissipated November 30, 1950
Maximum amount 57 inches (1,400 mm)*
Lowest pressure 978 mbar (28.88 inHg)
Damages $66.7 million (1950 dollars)[1]
Fatalities 353
Areas affected Eastern Third of the United States and Southeast Canada..Excerpt WIKI..The Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 was a large extratropical cyclone which moved through the Eastern United States, causing significant winds, heavy rains east of the Appalachians, and blizzard conditions along the western slopes of the mountain chain. Hurricane-force winds, peaking at 110mph in Concord, New Hampshire and 160mph in the New England highlands, disrupted power to 1,000,000 customers during the event. In all, the storm impacted 22 states, killing 353, and creating US$66.7 million in damage (1950 dollars).At the time, U.S. insurance companies paid more money out to their policy holders for damage resulting from this cyclone than for any other previous storm or hurricane.
Quoting washingtonian115:
MontanaZephyr wanted me and other Washingtonians dead and buried under 100 feet of snow.So don't pay them no mind.

Right now what ever climate change is doing it's tolerable.As long as it doesn't reach into it's 100's in October-March and with the Potomac river running into my house my priorities are family paying bills ect..


What you said Wash is what sensible and sane people think..providing for their families..I bet Montana and Nea got the DVD of Day After Tomorrow on repeat on their DVD players on a 88 inch screen in high definition

I'm out for awhile..
Quoting hydrus:
November storms can be deadly. Here is one of the worst.Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950

There was an infamous November storm on this day in 1975. It was a very strong storm that affected the Great Lakes and sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald.

From the Detroit NWS:
On November 10, 1975 an infamous intense fall storm centered over the Great Lakes sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. 29 crew men lost their lives because of this storm.


Quoting ncstorm:


What you said Wash is what sensible and sane people think..providing for their families..I bet Montana and Nea got the DVD of Day After Tomorrow on repeat on their DVD players on a 88 inch screen in high definition

I'm out for awhile..
This comment left me in tears.Talk about making a carbon print.
Quoting ncstorm:


I could care less about climate change..Ice melting ANYWHERE is not going to convince me..NC has a lot to work on in coming around to a changing america that I can agree with..its the name calling that I cant stand on this blog..my priority along with the national exit polls show that climate change or GW is NOT a priority on most american minds..60% of americans are worried about our economy..10 years from now? heck tomorrow isnt promised to anyone..its sad that people live in this world and worry about a fictional hollywood movie tidal wave taking them out instead of focusing on their families and how to provide for them now in the present sense..you have a good day as well!


Actually its good people aren't that worried about Climate Change. What good will it do for people to panic about something which is out of their control? It's good for people to be aware of it, and do their part to be more eco-friendly, but people shouldn't be panicking over GW, people are already stressed out enough as it is.


Severe thunderstorm warning near Chicago right now:

Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually its good people aren't that worried about Climate Change. What good will it do for people to panic about something which is out of their control? It's good for people to be aware of it, and do their part to be more eco-friendly, but people shouldn't be panicking over GW, people are already stressed out enough as it is.


Like the rising debt..econmey..getting money from China..our children's education..water supplies..food supplies.. all these things race across my head at night..Not GW or cimate change sorry.t's just that some of the climate change people on here it's like their wrap in their own little bubble and GW should be the 1# priority for people.Other things come first.
A severe thunderstorm producing 1.25" hail is headed straight for Chicago, take shelter if necessary.

1 mSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Heavy snowfall rates up to 1" per hour for WRN SD... S-CNTRL ND... FAR NWRN NEB http://1.usa.gov/fJjZ9H?SPC
Quoting lhwhelk:
The AVERAGE IQ is 100. Case closed.


Not exactly...

One's decision making choices, or capabilities cannot be measured in intellect. The ability to make wise choices is not the same as intellectual comprehension. Throughout the ages, many smart people have made poor decisions. Politicians making a decision to ban reporting of sea level rise may be due to agenda, denial, or many other things. However, it does not make them stupid. As I said, there have been brilliant minds in history that were bent on foolish ideas. The path of one's life, and their decisions they make, is independent of intellectual capacity, and really is not related. Of course it's not to say a very intelligent person can't be wise, but it doesn't mean they will be. There is just no dependence on each other.
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A severe thunderstorm is moving through the northern half of Cook County, Ill. including the Chicago area.


See animated cold front motion on my blog.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Like the rising debt..econmey..getting money from China..our children's education..water supplies..food supplies.. all these things race across my head at night..Not GW or cimate change sorry.t's just that some of the climate change people on here it's like their wrap in their own little bubble and GW should be the 1# priority for people.Other things come first.



It's because they are more worked up about Climate Change and therefore they assume everyone else should too. I don't want to be critical but it's the truth. People have enough things in their lives to worry about as it is, we can't throw burdens upon them which is out of their control. I'm concerned over the destruction of natural Florida. However I can't be a hero of Florida nature and save it all. I can do my part. But I'm just a human. We live in a world where increasingly people are stressed out over Global issues which one man can't control, meanwhile their own family and personal life is getting out of control.

It's trying to fix problems from the wrong approach, it doesn't work. It creates stress, and division.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Like the rising debt..econmey..getting money from China..our children's education..water supplies..food supplies.. all these things race across my head at night..Not GW or cimate change sorry.t's just that some of the climate change people on here it's like their wrap in their own little bubble and GW should be the 1# priority for people.Other things come first.


This is part of the problem. Thinking that these issues are somehow black and white and not all interconnected. Climate change can and will have an effect on all these worries, whether you want to think climate change is man made or not. The short sightedness of only concerning ourselves with immediacies instead of looking towards long term solutions combined with a lack of seeing how the puzzle pieces interact and fit together is only going to compound these problems further.
Seismic Risk in Eastern U.S. May Be Higher Than Previously Thought

Caution: The following link may expose the viewer to protocol-structured observation and fact, potentially leading to scientific ideation, which may or may not be legal in your state.


Link
Quoting Naga5000:


This is part of the problem. Thinking that these issues are somehow black and white and not all interconnected. Climate change can and will have an effect on all these worries, whether you want to think climate change is man made or not. The short sightedness of only concerning ourselves with immediacies instead of looking towards long term solutions combined with a lack of seeing how the puzzle pieces interact and fit together is only going to compound these problems further.

I agree.
The magnitude 4.3 earthquake doesn't seem powerful in comparison to the ones that occur out west, but this earthquake happened to be the second strongest in Kentucky history; a magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck the state in 1980.
Quoting Naga5000:


This is part of the problem. Thinking that these issues are somehow black and white and not all interconnected. Climate change can and will have an effect on all these worries, whether you want to think climate change is man made or not. The short sightedness of only concerning ourselves with immediacies instead of looking towards long term solutions combined with a lack of seeing how the puzzle pieces interact and fit together is only going to compound these problems further.
Oh you mean long term affects like what type of world my children and grand children will have to live in terms of debt and education?.Sorry if I'm puting those before climate change.I'm not thinking about that now.Sorry If I don't see a 45 foot tidel wave crashing ino the east coast from sea level rise 10 years from now...


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND...FAR NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 101811Z - 102215Z

SUMMARY...BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND AND
FAR NWRN NEB. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HR.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM SWRN CO NEWD INTO ERN SD/FAR WRN MN. TWO SURFACE LOWS
ARE LOCATED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA...ONE CENTERED OVER SWRN CO AND
THE OTHER OVER E-CNTRL SD. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A BAND
ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS WRN SD. ALSO OF NOTE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE ONSET OF THIS BAND.

SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A WARM AIR ADVECTION NOSE FROM CNTRL IA
NWWD INTO CNTRL SD. THIS TRAJECTORY FAVORS ADDITIONAL MOIST
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS ONGOING ACROSS
CNTRL NEB WITH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION LIKELY PHASING WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NWRN NM
NEWD INTO WRN NEB/. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF
THE SNOW BAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT
MOVES EWD. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HOUR WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER.. 11/10/2012
Quoting Jedkins01:


Not exactly...

One's decision making choices, or capabilities cannot be measured in intellect. The ability to make wise choices is not the same as intellectual comprehension. Throughout the ages, many smart people have made poor decisions. Politicians making a decision to ban reporting of sea level rise may be due to agenda, denial, or many other things. However, it does not make them stupid. As I said, there have been brilliant minds in history that were bent on foolish ideas. The path of one's life, and their decisions they make, is independent of intellectual capacity, and really is not related. Of course it's not to say a very intelligent person can't be wise, but it doesn't mean they will be. There is just no dependence on each other.
Excellent post.
Trained spotters have reported 1.5" hail west-southwest of Chicago. While the warning has expired/ been canceled the storm is still strong. This complex could affect me later in the day.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Like the rising debt..econmey..getting money from China..our children's education..water supplies..food supplies.. all these things race across my head at night..Not GW or cimate change sorry.t's just that some of the climate change people on here it's like their wrap in their own little bubble and GW should be the 1# priority for people.Other things come first.


Sure... but this is a weather-related discussion group. It struck me as lunatic in the extreme that a state senate would even consider attempting to legislate that scientific observation of sea level be made against the law.

and, revisiting your other post, dear boy, you misrepresented the facts, I should say. It wasn't 100 feet, it was only 40. It wasn't dead and gone, but not heard from till next June. And it wasn't about you, dear heart, it was to politicians in general, the hub of the universe for which is WDC, that the remark referred to in that pre-election period.

Sigh~
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually its good people aren't that worried about Climate Change. What good will it do for people to panic about something which is out of their control? It's good for people to be aware of it, and do their part to be more eco-friendly, but people shouldn't be panicking over GW, people are already stressed out enough as it is.




Anyone who isn't in panic mode over GW and CC either doesn't have any children and grandchildren or they've been drinking from the same jug that had the Republicans confidently stating they would win by 80 Electoral Votes. The first step in solving a problem is recognizing it exists.

Stating it is out of our control is a cop-out. The key is in your hand; don't turn it. The wall switch is under your finger; don't flip it. We are all responsible. Now let's solve this problem.
Total sun eclipse in the Southern Hemisphere on November 13-14. I think AussieStorm will have a good view in a partial way.

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh you mean long nerm afects like what type of world my children and grand children will have to live in terms of debt and education?Sorry if I'm puting those before climate change.


You are still missing the point. It isn't about an ordering of priorities on your list of things to worry about. They are all connected. It is a multi-variable equation.
Some people are thinking the climate is going to rapidly change like what the movie of The Day After Tomorrow is showing.I'm putting the movie on rigt now for get a good laugh.I should expect these events to play out over the next 6 months like what the movie inquires.

I'm out for the after noon.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Not exactly...

One's decision making choices, or capabilities cannot be measured in intellect. The ability to make wise choices is not the same as intellectual comprehension. Throughout the ages, many smart people have made poor decisions. Politicians making a decision to ban reporting of sea level rise may be due to agenda, denial, or many other things. However, it does not make them stupid. As I said, there have been brilliant minds in history that were bent on foolish ideas. The path of one's life, and their decisions they make, is independent of intellectual capacity, and really is not related. Of course it's not to say a very intelligent person can't be wise, but it doesn't mean they will be. There is just no dependence on each other.
51% of the so call smart peole justed voted !
It is supposed to get near 70F tomorrow and then struggle to get out of the 30s on Tuesday. This will be fun for my sinuses.

I am out for a while, bye everyone.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually its good people aren't that worried about Climate Change. What good will it do for people to panic about something which is out of their control? It's good for people to be aware of it, and do their part to be more eco-friendly, but people shouldn't be panicking over GW, people are already stressed out enough as it is.




Agree. Let's concentrate our efforts on cleaner air and water. Technology has come a long ways in those efforts and will continue to do so. Fossil fuels are gonna be with us a long time providing the good jobs we need. When the green energy sources make economical sense it will happen. Trying to undermine the fossil fuel industry for some unrealistic political agenda is wrong.
Quoting Jedkins01:



It's because they are more worked up about Climate Change and therefore they assume everyone else should too. I don't want to be critical but it's the truth. People have enough things in their lives to worry about as it is, we can't throw burdens upon them which is out of their control. I'm concerned over the destruction of natural Florida. However I can't be a hero of Florida nature and save it all. I can do my part. But I'm just a human. We live in a world where increasingly people are stressed out over Global issues which one man can't control, meanwhile their own family and personal life is getting out of control.

It's trying to fix problems from the wrong approach, it doesn't work. It creates stress, and division.
You write as though you're not aware that a large and growing number of people who truly do know about such things--a group which does not, by the way, include people like the Koch Brothers, Anthony Watts, or members of North Carolina's General Assembly--consider climate change the single largest threat mankind has ever faced in modern times. It's far more immediate and likely a threat than events such as a giant asteroid strike, or a supervolcano eruption, or global thermonuclear war, or a CME large enough to bring on long-term global chaos. Of course, it's true that how high the seas will rise over the next decade may not matter much to a man who's wondering what to feed his starving children for dinner tonight. But that doesn't take away the urgency or the reality of the situation.

Claiming that you can't be concerned with climate change because it's too "burdensome" makes as much sense as claiming that you can't worry about looking for a job because you're too busy digging through your sofa cushions for loose change. ;-)
Quoting wxchaser97:
It is supposed to get near 70F tomorrow and then struggle to get out of the 30s on Tuesday. This will be fun for my sinuses.

I am out for a while, bye everyone.


I almost laughed at that post, but then I realized its snot that funny.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
358. Hugo5
Quoting yonzabam:
It's not that long since the average annual rise in atmospheric CO2 was 1.5 ppm. That was the figure that was, and often still is, quoted in the literature.

However, for the past ten years the average annual rise has been 2.1 ppm. This is a hugely important development which is largely being ignored. Maybe scientists don't want to be accused of scaremongering. The annual increase fluctuates a lot, and ten years isn't that long, so maybe they think it might be a 'blip'.

Those scientists who have drawn attention to it, have suggested increased industrialization and affluence in the east, particularly China, is the cause. While that will contribute, my own theory is that warming oceans are becoming less efficient carbon sinks.

The record year for high SSTs is the record El Nino year of 1998. Atmospheric CO2 surged by almost 3 ppm that year, another record. 3 ppm would have been equivalent to all anthropogenic CO2 for 1998.

The colder regions of the ocean absorb CO2, while the warmer regions outgas it. So, as the ocean warms, it will absorb a diminishing fraction of man made CO2. But, it gets scarier. There is no reason why the ocean would not warm to the point where it became a net emitter of CO2. This is a nightmare scenario. I have no idea to what extent the models factor this in, but it wouldn't surprise me if they ignore it completely due to the uncertainties involved.

There is a good correlation between global SSTs and annual rises in CO2. I posted a table illustrating the correlation on a local Internet forum a few years ago. I'll see if I can find it and repost it here, but as it's in tabular form, it might not cut and paste.


some of your facts need checking.
Quoting Hugo5:


some of your facts need checking.


Like which?