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Nor'easter coming Wednesday and Thursday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:26 PM GMT on November 05, 2012

An early-season Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 1 - 2" over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, and intensify into a medium-strength Nor'easter with a central pressure near 984 mb by Wednesday evening. While the exact track of the storm still has considerable uncertainty, the models are pretty unified on the timing and strength of this storm. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 - 45 mph will likely affect portions of the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts. A more westerly track, as currently predicted by our top model, the European ECMWF model, would likely result in the storm's strongest winds affecting the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 2 - 4 feet would likely hit the New Jersey coast, and a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet would likely impact the western end of Long Island Sound. These surges would be accompanied by high, battering waves, capable of causing moderate to locally severe erosion along the coastal areas pounded by Hurricane Sandy last week. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between when the new moon and full moon occur. A more easterly track for the storm, as predicted by the GFS model, would put the Nor'easter's strongest winds along eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, resulting in lower storm surges for New Jersey and New York City. Accompanying the storm will be a swath of 2 - 3" of rain, with the heaviest rains falling over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit its intensity and snowfall amounts. Snow is not expected in coastal area, but the Nor'easter has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Wednesday evening, November 7, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and GFS model (right). The ECMWF model was run using data from 00Z (7 pm EST) Sunday night, and the GFS model was run using data beginning at 06Z (1 am EST) on Monday. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Atlantic City, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.3', occurring just after midnight local time on Wednesday night. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 am Thursday morning, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.4' around 1 am Thursday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 5.81' storm surge to Atlantic City, with the highest storm tide reaching 8.9' above MLLW.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting RitaEvac:


What did Nea do? I missed it


He made a comment about how all these bad things were true about Obama, all the conspiracies about him ever brought up, and to remember them when you go to vote.
His usual sarcasm.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Looks like he is making fun of the degenerates that actually think that of Obama. lol

Well as they say, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em."
Looks like his true colors really showed through today...
For those asking what % of global warming is AGW...

By definition, it is the warming caused by burning fossil fuels over the last 200+ years in addition to expected warming. We're coming out of an Ice Age and a long-term (1,000s of years) warming trend was already happening.

Not sure of specific percentage of AGW vs "normal warming" for last 200 years, but it's significant, especially the last few decades.
South Korea was forced to shut down two nuclear reactors on Monday to replace components that had not been properly vetted, a minister said, warning of "unprecedented" power shortages to follow. Knowledge Economy Minister Hong Suk-Woo said the "non-core" components posed no safety threat and were unrelated to a string of systems malfunctions at reactors this year that triggered calls for a safety review. The two affected units at the Yeonggwang nuclear complex may remain offline until early January, as engineers replace more than 5,000 fuses, cooling fans and other parts for which suppliers had provided faked quality certificates. "Comprehensive safety check-ups are necessary at these two reactors where the uncertified parts were used extensively," Hong said. "It's inevitable that we will experience unprecedented power shortage during the coming winter with the two reactors shut," he added.
Quoting FatPenguin:
For those asking what % of global warming is AGW...

By definition, it is the warming caused by burning fossil fuels over the last 200+ years in addition to expected warming. We're coming out of an Ice Age and a long-term (1,000s of years) warming trend was already happening.

Not sure of specific percentage of AGW vs "normal warming" for last 200 years, but it's significant, especially the last few decades.


IOW, we are most likely contributing.
The admin had finally gotten tired of the sarcasm.I said that sarcasm was going to be a big part of his downfall before people bashed me and left their usual insulting post.I'm not going to say I told you so.But I bet the ban is in affect for 24 hours.
"A giant flood of Arctic meltwater may have triggered an ancient 1,200-year-long chill nicknamed the "Big Freeze," the last major cold age on Earth, a new study finds."

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
The admin had finally gotten tired of the sarcasm.I said that sarcasm was going to be a big part of his downfall before people bashed me and left their usual insulting post.I'm not going to say I told you so.But I bet the ban is in affect for 24 hours.

12 hours, since it's his 2nd offense.

1st offense is 1 hour. 2nd offense is 12 hours. I know. Been there. LOL.
Quoting washingtonian115:
They did put showers and some wind in the forecast and nothing else.

I see Nea went off the brink today.All I have to say is that who ever floats your boat the most you vote for and you shouldn't have anyone(especially on this blog) influence your decision.Either than that no more politics from me and vote wisely.


Its waaaaay too early to start backing off on the potential impacts of this storm. Because the trough is elongated from the center to the ENE, onshore wave and surge are going to be serious for the coast from NJ north due to fetch, the instability of the airmass N of the centre (NE winds moving over relatively warm SSTs) and relatively slow storm movement after Thursday morning.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a little wet snow in DC :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Canadian RGEM drops Nor'easter low to 979 mb suggesting tight inner-core that e.g. GFS may not resolve. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265848615715614 722/photo/1
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Actually GFS full-sfc pressure fields show 983 mb for minimum -- nestled near the coast w/strong winds. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/265849117069160 448
Quoting Midnight092289:
I have been lurking on this blog since '05, and I will use my first post to call out Mr. Intelligent from Naples:

I appreciate all the climate change research you present, and you usually do it with an objective tone. But have you done any research on this "critical thinking" you speak of? I think you might be surprised by which political party has the higher IQ; and for that matter also gives more money and time to charitable causes, produces more, has more humility (clearly evidenced here), and is generally happier. Look it up. The liberals have convinced the world that they have the market cornered on goodness, but it is actually deceit in which they are masterful.

I do love Dr. Master's blog, your contributions usually, and I hope I don't get blocked or ignored (although I am capableof going another 7 years without posting). I promise to talk about the weather in the future, I am just hypersensitive today, as it seems you are.


Midnight, are you in the Green Party? You sound Green with the higher IQ, charitable causes, humility, etc, etc. If you are, I share your frustration. But we do what we can.

Now back to the climate where Mr. Intelligent is a fabulous asset to this blog.

Good luck New Jersey and New York in the coming storm.
Quoting FatPenguin:
For those asking what % of global warming is AGW...

By definition, it is the warming caused by burning fossil fuels over the last 200+ years in addition to expected warming. We're coming out of an Ice Age and a long-term (1,000s of years) warming trend was already happening.

Not sure of specific percentage of AGW vs "normal warming" for last 200 years, but it's significant, especially the last few decades.


And what percentage does the changing magnectic field contribute to warming if at all? We can't answer those questions because it's complicated folks. The politicos have already declared that Sandy is proof that AGW is real. The argument should be simply to do what we can to make the air we breath cleaner and that's gonna happen thru technology.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
I think Nea just got a little unexpected vacation.
No, he didn't. A single comment was deleted due to an overabundance of down votes by hypersensitive types. It happens...
Quoting washingtonian115:
.But I bet the ban is in affect for 24 hours.
How much you wanna put down? ;-)
Quoting LargoFl:
no your wrong, according to the NWS, gusts up to 65 mph will bring down power lines and weakened tree's, minor to moderate coastal flooding and even more beach erosion..dont let the people up there let their guard down..Listen folks to your NWS..the only TRUE voice out there..prepare and stay safe......not like last time

Ok, Dr. Masters did just say this will be a pretty normal Nor'easter and it won't cause major damage.
Quoting StormPro:


Have you seen one this morning that is related to weather or science? No...so just stop, vote your convictions and .....

I was just saying that some political comments are allowed, geez.
Quoting Neapolitan:
No, he didn't. A single comment was deleted due to an overabundance of down votes by hypersensitive types. It happens...How much you wanna put down? ;-)



wow.