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Massive Hurricane Sandy building a huge and destructive storm surge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2012

Massive and dangerous Hurricane Sandy has grown to record size as it barrels northeastwards along the North Carolina coast at 10 mph. At 8 am EDT, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds extended northeastwards 520 miles from the center, and twelve-foot high seas covered a diameter of ocean 1,030 miles across. Since records of storm size began in 1988, only one tropical storm or hurricane has been larger--Tropical Storm Olga of 2001, which had a 690 mile radius of tropical storm-force winds when it was near Bermuda (note: I earlier reported this was a subtropical storm, as per the original NHC advisory, but it was later re-analyzed as a tropical storm.) Sandy has put an colossal volume of ocean water in motion with its widespread and powerful winds, and the hurricane's massive storm surge is already impacting the coast. A 2' storm surge has been recorded at numerous locations this morning from Virginia to Connecticut, including a 3' surge at Virginia's Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel and Sewells Point at 9 am EDT. Huge, 10 - 15 foot-high battering waves on top of the storm surge have washed over Highway 12 connecting North Carolina's Outer Banks to the mainland at South Nags Head this morning. The highway is now impassable, and has been closed. The coast guard station on Cape Hatteras, NC, recorded sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 61 mph, at 5:53 am EDT this morning. In Delaware, the coastal highway Route 1 between Dewey Beach and Bethany Beach has been closed due to high water. Even though Sandy is a minimal Category 1 hurricane, its storm surge is extremely dangerous, and if you are in a low-lying area that is asked to evacuate, I strongly recommend that you leave.


Figure 1. A fright to behold: morning satellite image of massive Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy's death toll now at 65
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, the storm's death toll now stands at 65. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 51 deaths. Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe told the Associated Press that "This is a disaster of major proportions. The whole south is under water." Approximately 8 - 10" of rain (200 - 250 mm) fell in the capital of Port-au-Prince. Eleven people were killed in Cuba, where 35,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in Puerto Rico, and 1 in the Bahamas.


Figure 2. A resident carries a metal sheet from a house after heavy rains damaged by Hurricane Sandy in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012. Sandy is being blamed for 51 deaths in Haiti. (AP Photo/Dieu Nalio Chery)


Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts from NASA's TRMM satellite show that portions of Haiti received over 12.75" (325 mm) of rain (pink colors) from Hurricane Sandy. The capital of Port-au-Prince received 8 - 10" (200 - 250 mm.) Image credit: NASA.

Intensity and Track Forecast for Sandy
Sandy has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is no longer exposed to view, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing in areal extent near the center, due to a reduction in wind shear from 35 - 40 knots last night to 25 - 30 knots this morning. Wind shear is expected to drop another 5 knots today, which may allow the storm to build an increased amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center and intensify by 5 - 10 mph over the next 24 hours. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters noted this morning that Sandy had a partial eyewall on the west through SE sides of the center, and the storm may be able to build a nearly complete eyewall by Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, though, Sandy will be moving over cool 25°C waters, which should slow down this intensification process. However, the trough of low pressure that will be pulling Sandy to the northwest towards landfall on Monday will strengthen the storm by injecting "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy should have sustained winds at hurricane force, 75 - 80 mph, at landfall. Sandy's central pressure is expected to drop from its current 951 mb to 945 - 950 mb at landfall Monday night. A pressure this low is extremely rare; according to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC, is 946 mb (27.94") measured at the Bellport Coast Guard Station on Long Island, NY on September 21, 1938 during the great "Long Island Express" hurricane. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs are in agreement that Sandy will make landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning in New Jersey.


Figure 4. Predicted maximum storm surge from Hurricane Sandy. There is a 10% chance that the storm surge could exceed the heights given here, so most regions will receive a surge lower than this forecast. The greatest surge is expected in the waters surrounding New York City, since the shape of the bays will act to funnel the water to higher levels.

Sandy's storm surge a huge threat
Last night's 9:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 - 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 - 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. While Sandy's storm surge will be nowhere near as destructive as Katrina's, the storm surge does have the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 - 3" to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy's storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy's storm surge is expected to be several feet higher than Irene's. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.”

Sandy's winds
Sandy will bring sustained winds of tropical storm-force to a 1000-mile swath of coast on Monday and Tuesday. Winds of 55 - 75 mph with gusts over hurricane force will occur along a 500 mile-wide section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for several billion dollars in wind damage. A power outage computer model run by Johns Hopkins University predicts that 10 million people will lose power from the storm.

Sandy's rains
Sandy's heavy rains are going to cause major but probably not catastrophic river flooding. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 5) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 6), Sandy's are expected to be about 30% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 3 - 6 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is probably not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.


Figure 5. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Friday morning, November 2, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 6. Actual rainfall for 2011's Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy's rains are predicted to be about 30% less than Irene's. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Sandy's snows
You can add heavy snow to the list of weather frights coming for the Eastern U.S. from Sandy. A WInter Storm Watch is posted for much of southeastern West Virginia for Sunday night through Monday, when 2 - 6 inches of wet, heavy snow is expected to fall at elevations below 2000 feet. At higher elevation above 3,000 feet, 1 - 2 feet of snow is possible. With high wind gusts of 35 - 45 mph and many trees still in leaf, the affected area can expect plenty of tree damage and power outages. Lesser snows are expected in the mountains of Virginia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.

Sandy's tornado threat is minimal
The severe thunderstorm and tornado threat from Sandy Sunday and Monday looks low, due to minimal instability.

Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Corolla, NC webcam

Atlantic City beach cam

Statue of Liberty cam

An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.

This impressive 1-min GOES loop beginning at dawn Saturday shows Sandy's heavy thunderstorms fighting against high wind shear, and the tilt of the vortex to the northeast with height.

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

3-D "fly-around: of the rain towers of Sandy

Hurricane Sandy info from NASA.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Storm Surge prediction model from the Stevens Institute of Technology, which use a highly detailed 3D ocean model and even includes rainfall and tributary inflows.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.


Figure 7. Tide gauge in Kahului, Maui, Hawaii, showing the 2.5' tsunami that hit at approximately 09 UTC Sunday, October 29, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Three-foot tsunami his Hawaii after big quake in Canada
A major magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit 25 miles (40 km) south of Sandspit, British Columbia last night at 8:04 pm PDT. The quake generated a tsunami that raced across the Pacific Ocean and struck Hawaii six hours later. The tsunami reached a height of 2.5 feet in Kahului, Maui, 1.2' at Hilo, and 0.5' in Honolulu. The earthquake was Canada's third largest since 1900. The last stronger quake was a magnitude 7.9 that hit in 1958. The other stronger quake was a magnitude 8.1 that hit in 1949, with an epicenter very close to last night's trembler.

I'll have an update on Sandy this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants
Pier getting damaged
Taken by RJ LeBleu
Taken by RJ LeBleu
Vero Beach, Florida Beach erosion from Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

D.C schools are canceled.The kiddies are happy but I wasn't going to send them to school anyway and depending on how the weather goes down school might be closed down for awhile.Anyway the party is going good and it is noticeably windy outside with gray over cast.
Quoting bappit:

Could Sandy have started a wave up the east coast like the one that went across the Gulf Coast with Ike? Just wondering. Ike's surge started over by Florida and really surprised people in south Louisiana.

I sure wouldn't ignore the storm surge danger. Long Island Sound looks like a good funnel to trap water in New York harbor.


Quite possibly, yes, though I am unfamiliar with the exact dynamics of how far storm surge can travel, though I am certain there are several research papers on it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C schools are canceled.The kiddies are happy but I wasn't going to send them to school anyway and depending on how the weather goes down school might be closed down for awhile.Anyway the party is going good and it is noticeably windy outside with gray over cast.


Still waiting to see if the university cancels classes here at American... Do you know if metrorail is going to be closed tomorrow?
I went from DC metro area to the family house 110 from DC south and west.Mostly as precaution measures.

Any idea how bad its gonna be over here?Its pretty much inland so and i hope that the winds are not gonna go more than tropical storm force,what do you guys think?
Quoting RussianWinter:


What kind of effects will storm surge have on the buildings?


The most recent analysis I've seen said there were 105mph winds at around 1,800 feet. If the storm can mix those winds down even some, there is the potential for major glass damage to skyscrapers. Not say it's inevitable, but possible..
--
weathercurious i wonder if cville will get snow?
Quoting charlottefl:


The most recent analysis I've seen said there were 105mph winds at around 1,800 feet. If the storm can mix those winds down even some, there is the potential for major glass damage to skyscrapers. Not saying it's inevitable, but possible..


Sorry guys went to edit and it re-posted. Go figure...
12z CMC




The track should gradually start leaning more back to the North now:

Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C schools are canceled.The kiddies are happy but I wasn't going to send them to school anyway and depending on how the weather goes down school might be closed down for awhile.Anyway the party is going good and it is noticeably windy outside with gray over cast.


thats good.
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneSandy @ 28Oct.6pm
Unless there is an improbably large change soon in its travel-direction...
...H.Sandy has already made it's closest approach to the OuterBanks, 255miles(410kilometres)SSEast of CapeHatteras at ~1:52pm
MFV-Accomack :: NTU-VirginiaBeach :: HNC-CapeHatteras

There is no straightline projection.
The line heading SouthEast from the HNCblob is intersecting H.Sandy's path at its closest approach.

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
Quoting weathercurious25:
I went from DC metro area to the family house 110 from DC south and west.Mostly as precaution measures.

Any idea how bad its gonna be over here?Its pretty much inland so and i hope that the winds are not gonna go more than tropical storm force,what do you guys think?


Forecast for Monday night (D.C. - my birthplace)
Rain.
NWS FORECAST - The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 43. Very windy, with a north wind 39 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
Just to give you a sense of scale, the 370,000 being evacuated from NYC's Zone A, if they were their own city, would be the 51st largest city, by population, in the U.S. (just ahead of New Orleans, by odd conincidence).

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States _cities_by_population
Quoting TerraNova:


Still waiting to see if the university cancels classes here at American... Do you know if metrorail is going to be closed tomorrow?
Metro will go on a normal scheldale tomorrow.The news stations didn't announce anything major with metro.I'm surprised your classes aren't cancelled.My nieces is.She goes to U.D.C
Quoting wxchaser97:

Sandy is becoming better organized, she has been all day.
Thanks that is why I think.
You know how trucks before they take a closed curve have to go to the other side a bit?? It's kind of what sandys doing; Sandy is so big it can't just turn left like nothing; has to take a little deviation east first.
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C schools are canceled.The kiddies are happy but I wasn't going to send them to school anyway and depending on how the weather goes down school might be closed down for awhile.Anyway the party is going good and it is noticeably windy outside with gray over cast.


Arlington schools aren't closed.

YET.

hahahahaaaaaa
They are starting to close schools in MA and mandatory evacuations are in place for some communities.
Erosion at Kure Beach, North Carolina.

Quoting longislander102:


I am hearing there is some minor flooding in some of those roads south of there already.


Well, you know what happens in Massapequa and other towns near you. The flooding can come up through your cellars, even without coming from the shore. Do have a pump in your cellar?
Winds are still strong in Duck, NC, frequent gusts in the 50's to near 60mph. This is hour 15 for them..


Quoting StormJunkie:
So I know this is off topic...But for all college football fans, and pro fans for that matter. If you have not seen this, I warn it is gruesome. Lattimore will be missed and can only wish him & his family well. Broken femur, petella, torn ACL, MCL, LCL, & PCL.

Sorry for the interuption, and back to on topic.



I saw that yesterday and thought omg he blew his whole knee out, looked very bad. Best wishes for the young man...

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
524. maeko
While storm surge and flooding are critical concerns, I feel that people are overlooking issues like availability of shelters, the effects of mass power outages, and the loss of potable water.

Those that must evacuate need to figure out where they are going and how they will get there. Even if it means just walking a couple of blocks, how many people will wait until the last minute to take that walk and how many belongings will they try to take with them? What is the capacity of the shelter? What is the condition of the shelter? There may be lots of schools designated as shelters but many will be older buildings with antiquated systems. Will they stand up well to long-duration 50+ mph winds? Can they accommodate full capacity or more for 36 hrs?

After the immediate danger, the true misery of being without lights, communication, heat, drinking water, and working toilets begins. Most everyone from NC to Maine will have some of these effects and it could go on for 2 weeks or so in some areas. It is mostly just a miserable experience but it could be deadly for the elderly, sick, and vulnerable.

Sandy is NOT Irene and I am really worried that by the time people (and some officials) come to accept that it will be too late :(
Checking in from the North Shore of LI. Going out later with my brother-in-law to get some video. Word on the street is that Dune Road in Westhampton is flooded already. Sucks, some of the best beaches down there.

People definitely taking it seriously now. Major lines at gas stations, ATMs out of cash. It's like the end of the world.

I want to take time here to thank each and everyone of you bloggers for your time and dedication to share the information of Hurricane Sandy, the information provided by everyone paints the real story of what is going on in relationship of this horrible storm.
Again, Thank you very much from the bottom of my heart.

Trunkmonkey EMA Executive Director.
Virginia Beach now sustained near TS force too. Highest gust 57mph..



This is ~ 357 miles from the center of Sandy..
Look, it's Sandy Claws! I'm in Northeast Ohio, and things are starting to get a little intense over here now. The 24 hours of wind with a lot of trees still in leaf is getting disturbing. Lake Erie shoreline is setting up to get pounded with wind and potentially lake enhanced rain. Not to mention we've already had 1.5" or so of rain the past 2 days with this front that has been going east and now back west thanks to Sandy. Ground is nice and softened up and saturated (ugh!)

Good luck to all of those on the coast and please pay attention to your warnings/officials. I often lurk here, but remember how Ike was originally not taken seriously and bloggers were urging people to get out. Looking at the numbers on the storm surge scale, I'd say it would be a good idea to pay attention. Sandy will be nasty.


@NWSNewYorkNY Predicted water level of 11.7ft at #NYC Battery at 8:13PM MON would break record of 10.5ft on 9/15/60 w/ Hurr. Donna #Sandy
Quoting washingtonian115:
Metro will go on a normal scheldale tomorrow.The news stations didn't announce anything major with metro.I'm surprised your classes aren't cancelled.My nieces is.She goes to U.D.C


The only official news we've gotten so far is a generic "public safety is monitoring the situation, stay tuned" email, sent out late on Friday. Haven't heard any official information since. It also mentioned they expected the university to remain open for regular classes on Monday...but that was then. We're all keeping a keen eye on our inboxes over here. Campus is eerily quiet right now, more so than it usually is even for a Sunday afternoon. Lots of people making trips to the Safeway and Whole Foods on Wisconsin Ave.

A friend and I rented the entire Die Hard series to watch with our floor during the storm. Hopefully the power stays up. Floor advisers have told me that our area might be first priority for service restoration since we're on embassy row, guess that remains to be seen. Very, very worried about my family in Northern NJ...though we live on a hill away from any flood-prone areas, my house is completely surrounded by tall, large oak trees which I fear may have been weakened by Irene and last year's October blizzard.

Stay safe everyone, everywhere!
Quoting Grothar:


Well, you know what happens in Massapequa and other towns near you. The flooding can come up through your cellars, even without coming from the shore. Do have a pump in your cellar?


From experience growing up in the Catskills, you have to have electricity to run the pumps. Or a generator. *G*
From one of Dr. M's blogs during Irene last year. Flooding at La Guardia during a Nor'easter in the 50's.

535. 7544
wow a hurrican will hit most of the ne and nyc looks like its safer to be in fl these days lol
eye is forming

Link

Link

ECMWF 12z ("Euro") is up for the public. Loop.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


From experience growing up in the Catskills, you have to have electricity to run the pumps. Or a generator. *G*


On the Island, they can use their feet. :)
Hatches batterned .... check
Batteries bought .... check
Car filled .... check
cash at hand .... check
food at the ready .... check
booze at the ready .... check
chocolate at the ready .... check

The cats won't even go outside, and we're just getting the first little bit of it.

Good luck everyone!
Quoting 7544:
wow a hurrican will hit most of the ne and nyc looks like its safer to be in fl these days lol


Lol. Don't ever say that.
Quoting TerraNova:


The only official news we've gotten so far is a generic "public safety is monitoring the situation, stay tuned" email, sent out late on Friday. Haven't heard any official information since. It also mentioned they expected the university to remain open for regular classes on Monday...but that was then. We're all keeping a keen eye on our inboxes over here. Campus is eerily quiet right now, more so than it usually is even for a Sunday afternoon. Lots of people making trips to the Safeway and Whole Foods on Wisconsin Ave.

A friend and I rented the entire Die Hard series to watch with our floor during the storm. Hopefully the power stays up. Floor advisers have told me that our area might be first priority for service restoration since we're on embassy row, guess that remains to be seen. Very, very worried about my family in Northern NJ...though we live on a hill away from any flood-prone areas, my house is completely surrounded by tall, large oak trees which I fear may have been weakened by Irene and last year's October blizzard.

Stay safe everyone, everywhere!
Usually power is restored pretty fast in the downtown area.It's neighborhoods and the suburbs that have problems getting power restored.
Quoting charlottefl:
From one of Dr. M's blogs during Irene last year. Flooding at La Guardia during a Nor'easter in the 50's.



If I remember correctly, most of that water would have come from Long Island Sound.
545. dader
Quoting Grothar:


If I remember correctly, most of that water would have come from Long Island Sound.


Well Flushing Bay, Bowery Bay and the East River. But yes the Sound which is really the Atlantic Ocean.
Quoting TerraNova:


The only official news we've gotten so far is a generic "public safety is monitoring the situation, stay tuned" email, sent out late on Friday. Haven't heard any official information since. It also mentioned they expected the university to remain open for regular classes on Monday...but that was then. We're all keeping a keen eye on our inboxes over here. Campus is eerily quiet right now, more so than it usually is even for a Sunday afternoon. Lots of people making trips to the Safeway and Whole Foods on Wisconsin Ave.


NOTE - George Mason (which my youngest attends) also plans to stay on schedule with classes at this point. Yes, Fairfax is farther inland, but I imagine they will have power issues as well. Not thrilled with her driving 10 miles to campus tomorrow morning in the midst of this.
Wow...bravo, Mount Holly!

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!
Can someone tell us if it is true that there is no storm warning/watch, most homeowners insurance will NOT cover the damage unless there is flood insurance?
Remember the stunning high resolution close up loop from Sandys COC, mentioned by our Doc in his entry. Feather bands to the north of the center now.
Quoting mfcmom:
Can someone tell us if it is true that there is no storm warning/watch, most homeowners insurance will NOT cover the damage unless there is flood insurance?


Any type of flood damage has to be covered under flood insurance. It's not in your main homeowners policy..
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
17:30 PM IST October 28 2012
==========================================

Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays near 9.5N 85.0E or about 650 km southeast of Chennai, India and 400 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours and may subsequently develop into a cyclonic storm as the system moves westward towards northern Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu (India) coast.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 6.0N and 13.0N west of 88.0E and Sri Lanka. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during the past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is about 1003 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression.

The buoy observation around the system shows 20-25 knot winds in the northern sector and about 15 knots in the southern sector.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and nwp model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 24 hrs as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system centre. However, it increases towards north Tamil Nadu and adjoining sea areas.
We just had one of the biggest aftershocks yet from last night's huge earthquake, this one a magnitude 6.3.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 29 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (985 hPa) located at 20.7N 106.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 22.0N 108.1E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
Because Grothar made me: (Gusts in kts)

Anyone here on the outer banks still have power? Damage?
Quoting mfcmom:
Can someone tell us if it is true that there is no storm warning/watch, most homeowners insurance will NOT cover the damage unless there is flood insurance?


In Louisiana I have wind coverage, but you need to look at your policy. It should say what you are covered for.
Quoting mfcmom:
Can someone tell us if it is true that there is no storm warning/watch, most homeowners insurance will NOT cover the damage unless there is flood insurance?




A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

thats all for right now as of 2:00 PM
Latest models.

Quoting charlottefl:


Any type of flood damage has to be covered under flood insurance. It's not in your main homeowners policy..
Quoting mfcmom:
Can someone tell us if it is true that there is no storm warning/watch, most homeowners insurance will NOT cover the damage unless there is flood insurance?


Any flooding will NOT be covered under your homeowners policy! If you live in the gulf south and have a homeowners policy, then IF they name the storm a hurricane, a higher deductible kicks in, so you are actually better covered if it is NOT called a hurricane when it hits.
If NY can't handle a Cat. 1, could you imagine a Cat 3 or higher? Something needs to be done... Also, is Pennsylvania going to get the worst of the storm?
Quoting Slamguitar:
Because Grothar made me: (Gusts in kts)



It's about time. You can talk football later. I'm watching two games at the same time and I still post.
Is the wind event being over-hyped ? I am guessing they are right about the water part, but I am having trouble seeing a storm that looks so bad having 50 mph winds 100 miles from the center.
Quoting charlottefl:


Any type of flood damage has to be covered under flood insurance. It's not in your main homeowners policy..
I live in Florida, but on another storm site I read that if they do NOT declare a TS/Hurricane watch or warning, it gives the people that live up there no chance of declaring damages from their insurance. I want to find out if it is true, I think it's just awful considering what these poor people are facing.
Quoting Grothar:


It's about time. You can talk football later. I'm watching two games at the same time and I still post.


It would be even more interesting if Lake Erie was as warm as late Aug/early September with the center stalling near it in that model.
Quoting dader:


Well Flushing Bay, Bowery Bay and the East River. But yes the Sound which is really the Atlantic Ocean.


Don't tell that to the people of the North Shore of Long Island. :)
URNT12 KNHC 281828 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 28/17:21:30Z
B. 32 deg 42 min N
071 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2670 m
D. 47 kt
E. 173 deg 26 nm
F. 237 deg 69 kt
G. 138 deg 127 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 10 C / 3047 m
J. 12 C / 3050 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. SPIRAL BAND
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 2018A SANDY OB 16 CCA
MAX FL WIND 78 KT S QUAD 16:17:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 72 KT W QUAD 18:07:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 13 C 199 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
SFC WINDS 67 KTS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE 263 DEG / 145 NM W OF CTR IN RAINBAND ON OUTBOUND LEG
Duck, NC



Link
568. xlr8r
That high res. loop was excellent, nice find.
Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane
Latest American (GFS) & European models nearly identical in landfall point/intensity: Toms River NJ, 947mb. GFS says 8p Mon, Euro 11p Mon.
@Slamguitar7:28 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Is it possible for you to post a link to that image so I may send it in email. Thank you

Quoting charlottefl:


Any type of flood damage has to be covered under flood insurance. It's not in your main homeowners policy..

A watch/warning is irrelevant in terms of coverage for most homeowner's policies. Homeowner's insurance won't cover losses that primarily caused by general, or areal, flooding. If you're in a designated flood plain, you should have flood insurance to cover that. Now, if a teee falls on to your roof, and you get water damage from the rain coming though the hole in your roof, you should be covered for that. Assuming you're in a flood plain and have a mortgage, flood insurance is usually mandatory. If you're not in a flood plain and get unusual flooding in your area from a gigantic storm like Sandy, you're pretty much out of luck. There's a reason why fires sometimes break out in an area that's flooded. :)
Quoting mfcmom:
I live in Florida, but on another storm site I read that if they do NOT declare a TS/Hurricane watch or warning, it gives the people that live up there no chance of declaring damages from their insurance. I want to find out if it is true, I think it's just awful considering what these poor people are facing.


I have both flood and homeowners insurance, and my homeowners WILL NOT cover flood damage, regardless of whether there is a storm designation or not.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane
Latest American (GFS) & European models nearly identical in landfall point/intensity: Toms River NJ, 947mb. GFS says 8p Mon, Euro 11p Mon.

Yikes. Thanks for update.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Hurricane Central ‏@twc_hurricane
Latest American (GFS) & European models nearly identical in landfall point/intensity: Toms River NJ, 947mb. GFS says 8p Mon, Euro 11p Mon.


That will be historic but I am just not believing that its going to be that bad. It doesn't look that threatening on satelite.

I have friends in NY that don't believe it either, and are planning a Hurricane Party down near Battersea Park. I hope they aren't surprised by this.
Well someone must not have liked Bryan Norcross's blog from earlier today as it is no longer up. Wonder when he'll post another one. Seems to me he was just trying to get people to pay attention which he did an excellent job of before and during Andrew.

"Sandy the super-unusual, combo hurricane/nor'easter on the unheard-of track is coming together as forecast. The computer forecast models predicted that the winds would spread out in the nor'easter part of the storm, and the hurricane part of the storm would struggle a bit then recover. Tropical-storm force winds have spread out to the Virginia coast, and the tropical part of the system looks only
so-so on the satellite.

Normally we would say the fat lady has sung, and get ready to fold up our hurricane hunters and go home. But, those same reliable computer models are saying that Combo Sandy is going to get reinvigorated by the jet stream while still getting energy from the Gulf Stream tomorrow and Monday, and get stronger and bigger. And then pounce on the Northeast.

The bigness of the circulation means big problems in at least two ways. A tremendous area from Canada to North Carolina to Ohio will be getting high winds from Sandy at the same time. That means trees down, power out, and a lot of miserable people in the chilly weather after the storm. And more importantly, the amount of energy the storm puts in the ocean water goes up dramatically with the diameter of the high-wind area. Not to mention, Sandy is already one of the biggest hurricanes on record.

When Sandy moves toward the coast, that high-energy water comes with it, which means high storm surge and stunningly high waves.

If the center of the circulation lands on the Jersey Shore, as looks most likely, the focus on that energy is going to be on North Jersey, New York Harbor, and the south shore of Long Island. The National Weather Service in New York is predicting waves 10 to 20 feet high on the south-facing beaches. Holy crap!

Did I also mention that's on top of the storm surge, which is forecast to raise the ocean level 4 to 8 feet above normal? And did I also mention that there's a full moon and the storm's peak is expected to be around high tide? Holy triple whammy!

That NJ/NYC/Long Island elbow is like a catchers mitt for storm surge, on the rare occasion that a big storm comes at it from the southeast or east... just like Sandy's forecast. The only thing that can stop extremely high water with battering waves from affecting the region is for the forecast to be wrong.

If the forecast is even mostly right, the ocean water will come in higher than during Hurricane Irene, which came within a foot of doing serious damage to NYC infrastructure. And that brings up the incomprehensibly inexplicable news conference by Mayor Bloomberg.

I'm NOT saying that the Mayor should have ordered an evacuation. That's for him to decide, and it's a tough decision. But to play down the biggest storm to come along in years - if the forecast is even close - seems bizarrely out of character. There's no upside in this everything-is-rosy approach. He could have expressed concern for the people whose houses are going to get smashed along the coast, but said AT THIS TIME he was going to hold off on any evacuation orders. A statement like that gives him room to maneuver and people get the message that preparation is required.

The normally well-oiled machine that is the Bloomberg administration seems to have slipped a communications cog.

And in a possibly related cog-slipping development, the National Weather Service decided NOT to issue a Hurricane Watch for the Northeast coastline... are you ready for this... because it would be confusing to switch from that to a Coastal Flood Watch and a High Wind Watch after the storm - which will come ashore with hurricane-force winds - morphs into another kind of storm according to the meteorology dictionary.

Whether the missing Hurricane Watch sent the Mayor off-kilter, we'll see. But the criticism came hot and heavy... enough that the Weather Service wrote up a big media release to explain why the clearest possible communications is a bad thing.

I grant that a technical reading of the "rules" says that you can't put up a Hurricane Watch and a Coastal Flood Watch and a High Wind Watch at the same time. But I'm betting the rules didn't envision a super-mega-combo freak of a storm slamming into the most populated part of the country. When all hell is breaking loose, sometimes you've got to break a few rules to do the right thing.

There will be a whole lot of talk about this when the storm is over. Hopefully that will result in a communication policy that meets the world-class standards of the forecasting that goes on at the Hurricane Center and at Weather Service offices all over the country.

The bottom line... let's all get on the same page. The forecast calls for a massive, destructive storm to affect tens of millions of people. If the forecast is wrong, hooray. But so far it's been right, and the odds are this is going to be really bad for a lot of people. Everybody's goal should be to be sure that as many people as possible are as ready and aware as they can be".

Bryan Norcross.
Quickie question - just got an ipad...what your favorite app for tracking hurricanes? I'm lost in the app store and figured I'd ask you all since you'd know best. Thanks!Q
Quoting goldenpixie1:
Quickie question - just got an ipad...what your favorite app for tracking hurricanes? I'm lost in the app store and figured I'd ask you all since you'd know best. Thanks!Q


Not sure if they have it on Ipad, but I have one called Hurr Tracker on my Iphone, that I like a lot...
Quoting sar2401:

A watch/warning is irrelevant in terms of coverage for most homeowner's policies. Homeowner's insurance won't cover losses that primarily caused by general, or areal, flooding. If you're in a designated flood plain, you should have flood insurance to cover that. Now, if a teee falls on to your roof, and you get water damage from the rain coming though the hole in your roof, you should be covered for that. Assuming you're in a flood plain and have a mortgage, flood insurance is usually mandatory. If you're not in a flood plain and get unusual flooding in your area from a gigantic storm like Sandy, you're pretty much out of luck. There's a reason why fires sometimes break out in an area that's flooded. :)
I just suspect that many of these folks do not have flood insurance in NY/NJ, and it's going to be really bad. I am also glad that it's happening before the election as some want to privatize FEMA. I believe the quote was "FEMA is immoral". Not politicking, I promise, just stating a fact. I am afraid for many up north, I have two sisters up that way and I think it's going to be really bad.
didn't bryan norcross pull his own blog post?
Quoting KeyWestbeachcomber:
@Slamguitar7:28 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Is it possible for you to post a link to that image so I may send it in email. Thank you



http://www.pictureshack.us/images/34062_SuperSand y20121030.gif

Spread the love!
Quoting mfcmom:
I live in Florida, but on another storm site I read that if they do NOT declare a TS/Hurricane watch or warning, it gives the people that live up there no chance of declaring damages from their insurance. I want to find out if it is true, I think it's just awful considering what these poor people are facing.
Quoting mfcmom:
I live in Florida, but on another storm site I read that if they do NOT declare a TS/Hurricane watch or warning, it gives the people that live up there no chance of declaring damages from their insurance. I want to find out if it is true, I think it's just awful considering what these poor people are facing.

Read my post #571. Whoever posted about a watch or warning being needed to recover non-flood related damege is confused.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
URNT12 KNHC 281828 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 28/17:21:30Z
B. 32 deg 42 min N
071 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2670 m
D. 47 kt
E. 173 deg 26 nm
F. 237 deg 69 kt
G. 138 deg 127 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 10 C / 3047 m
J. 12 C / 3050 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. SPIRAL BAND
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 2018A SANDY OB 16 CCA
MAX FL WIND 78 KT S QUAD 16:17:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 72 KT W QUAD 18:07:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 13 C 199 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
SFC WINDS 67 KTS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE 263 DEG / 145 NM W OF CTR IN RAINBAND ON OUTBOUND LEG


If they found 67 knot surface winds, then, given Sandy's size, there's a fairly high chance that there are stronger winds in there somewhere. Might see it upped to 80 mph.
30 hours



54 hours

I am a retired professor and I can tell you that not all school administrators are skilled at reading weather maps.

There is a lot of pressure on students to be in class but if you are commuting and you feel travel may be unsafe - you are the person who makes the final call.

There will be a lot of power lines and trees coming down over the next two days. Your parents and professors will be far more impressed if you are safe than if you are present.

Quoting pmzqqzmp:


That will be historic but I am just not believing that its going to be that bad. It doesn't look that threatening on satelite.

I have friends in NY that don't believe it either, and are planning a Hurricane Party down near Battersea Park. I hope they aren't surprised by this.


Well, they couldn't have picked a better name to hold a Hurricane Party
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I want to take time here to thank each and everyone of you bloggers for your time and dedication to share the information of Hurricane Sandy, the information provided by everyone paints the real story of what is going on in relationship of this horrible storm.
Again, Thank you very much from the bottom of my heart.

Trunkmonkey EMA Executive Director.

I second that wholeheartedly
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


If they found 67 knot surface winds, then, given Sandy's size, there's a fairly high chance that there are stronger winds in there somewhere. Might see it upped to 80 mph.


Wow, yeah did you see how far that was from the center though too, 145 nautical miles... (That's 166 statue miles)
Quoting plutorising:
didn't bryan norcross pull his own blog post?


I don't know who or why.
gotta love my local nws

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE
BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS
FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
I'm no met, but I personally think that the NHC doesn't have much of a handle on Frankenstorm. They'll be as reliable as ever on track forecasts, but I think they're 'all over the place' with regard to surge.

Their dynamic graphics say a 10% chance of more than 11 feet of surge in NYC. At the same time they say a 50% chance of a surge greater than 4 feet! Covering their bets, there, I'd say.

I don't think they do hybrid systems well.
I'm kind of loving that there is a place called "Duck" North Carolina.

Very appropriate.


Bryan Norcross.

Dang...did he write this at 2 am...Charlie Sheen style? Naaahh...just expressing his opinion.
I second that. Was scheduled to work overnight as Wilma was coming in. We were under a hurricane warning and were expecting hurricane force winds. Needless to say I called off. If you don't feel safe, stay at home.
I hope the 80mph gust prediction is wrong here in D.C.I mean at least with the derecho it was in and out.But this Sandy wants to stay and get comfy.F.O.H.
Quoting Slamguitar:


http://www.pictureshack.us/images/34062_SuperSand y20121030.gif

Spread the love!
Thanks I did extract it but have no luck using it...cannot be found..thanks anyway .for THE LOVE ;)
Quoting sfranz:
I am a retired professor and I can tell you that not all school administrators are skilled at reading weather maps.

There is a lot of pressure on students to be in class but if you are commuting and you feel travel may be unsafe - you are the person who makes the final call.

There will be a lot of power lines and trees coming down over the next two days. Your parents and professors will be far more impressed if you are safe than if you are present.



Yep - except the Russian instructor who lives across the street from campus, instead of out in the burbs. :)
Quoting mfcmom:
I just suspect that many of these folks do not have flood insurance in NY/NJ, and it's going to be really bad. I am also glad that it's happening before the election as some want to privatize FEMA. I believe the quote was "FEMA is immoral". Not politicking, I promise, just stating a fact. I am afraid for many up north, I have two sisters up that way and I think it's going to be really bad.

I don't know where you're getting your information. No one that I've seen wants to privatize FEMA. FEMA, with the exception of being a coordinator of first on scene government assistance, has nothing to do with insurance policies. In a Fedrally declared disaster, they may assist homeowners in applying for government guaranteed loans for flood damaged structures, but they provide no long-term assistance. The flooding issue is one that affects people all over the country. If you live in Las Vegas and your home is damaged by a flash flood, you're also out of luck. If you don't live in a flood plain, it's almost impossible to get a flood protection rider on a homeowner's policy. That's why it's a good idea to know the elevation of your home, how far away it is from any drainage channel or waterway, and the flood history of the general area before before you buy the house.
When does this ' Baroclinic Energy " get injected into Sandy? Is it a quick or prolonged process?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
When does this ' Baroclinic Energy " get injected into Sandy? Is it a quick or prolonged process?


It's supposed to take place just before landfall, but truth be told Sandy has already been aided by it over the past 24 hours, especially in the Western half of the storm..
Quoting yonzabam:
I'm no met, but I personally think that the NHC doesn't have much of a handle on Frankenstorm. They'll be as reliable as ever on track forecasts, but I think they're 'all over the place' with regard to surge.

Their dynamic graphics say a 10% chance of more than 11 feet of surge in NYC. At the same time they say a 50% chance of a surge greater than 4 feet! Covering their bets, there, I'd say.

I don't think they do hybrid systems well.


Pretty standard for probability predicitions. Same as for wind, they have 55% for 34 kt in NY.
601. bwat
Quoting sfranz:
I'm kind of loving that there is a place called "Duck" North Carolina.

Very appropriate.

How about just up the road "Knotts" Island?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
When does this ' Baroclinic Energy " get injected into Sandy? Is it a quick or prolonged process?


well they said it would happen when she was over the Bahamas and it didn't happen. I am just feeling this storm is a bunch of hype. It looks not very well organized and not very threatening.

Quoting KeyWestbeachcomber:
Thanks I did extract it but have no luck using it...cannot be found..thanks anyway .for THE LOVE ;)
if you'll look, there's a space at sand y, if you close it up then the picture will load correctly.  took me three times.
Well, it's official. All schools are closed on Cape Cod tomorrow, and they'll probably extend to Tuesday. We know what can happen with these kinds of storms, but most on the mainland do not, especially NY, NJ, etc... '38 Hurricane hit RI, but most folks who'd remember what happened aren't around any longer.

I remember what Bob did, and I remember the Halloween storm that followed, which was renamed the "Perfect Storm", and that one was a Nor'Easter that swallowed up Hurricane Grace. It was more East and only clipped us, but I was scared that night, I'll tell you.

Although the tracking says this one's going to turn, until I actually see it turn, I'm shaking in my boots.
Quoting plutorising:
didn't bryan norcross pull his own blog post?


It certainly looks that way. Had Admin pulled it it would say removed by Admin & it does not.


Buoy at Hatteras, NC.

Quoting pmzqqzmp:


well they said it would happen when she was over the Bahamas and it didn't happen. I am just feeling this storm is a bunch of hype. It looks not very well organized and not very threatening.


Why?
607. bwat
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


well they said it would happen when she was over the Bahamas and it didn't happen. I am just feeling this storm is a bunch of hype. It looks not very well organized and not very threatening.
I don't recall anyone forecasting that over the bahamas.....but if that is going to happen it will be soon, shes headed to an area with a lot of upper divergence, so now we wait and see.
Oh yes, and the other warning that should go out, if it hasn't already. Watch out for falling glass from the high rises. It's going to be really dangerous in the cities if the wind really gets rockin' and rollin' and everyone forgets that those big pieces of glass can go flying off those high rises.
Any Tsunami alerts from the after-shocks?
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


well they said it would happen when she was over the Bahamas and it didn't happen. I am just feeling this storm is a bunch of hype. It looks not very well organized and not very threatening.

Looks can be deceiving
On a lighthearted note, OH DEAR GOD.
Quoting sar2401:

I don't know where you're getting your information. No one that I've seen wants to privatize FEMA. FEMA, with the exception of being a coordinator of first on scene government assistance, has nothing to do with insurance policies. In a Fedrally declared disaster, they may assist homeowners in applying for government guaranteed loans for flood damaged structures, but they provide no long-term assistance. The flooding issue is one that affects people all over the country. If you live in Las Vegas and your home is damaged by a flash flood, you're also out of luck. If you don't live in a flood plain, it's almost impossible to get a flood protection rider on a homeowner's policy. That's why it's a good idea to know the elevation of your home, how far away it is from any drainage channel or waterway, and the flood history of the general area before before you buy the house.



The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which works closely with nearly 90 private insurance companies to offer flood insurance to property owners and renters. In order to qualify for flood insurance, a community must join the NFIP and agree to enforce sound floodplain management standards.


Link
Winds in Newport/Middletown RI steady between 22-28, with higher gusts. East of us on the southern coast of Mass - steady in the upper 30s already. No rain at all yet.

Preps have been done for ages, last item was to put the little car in the garage, which we just did. Hubby will drive the 3/4 ton diesel to work and back - and yes, Naval Station Newport is business as usual tomorrow.
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


well they said it would happen when she was over the Bahamas and it didn't happen. I am just feeling this storm is a bunch of hype. It looks not very well organized and not very threatening.
This is why storm surge is so deadly... people don't realized that storm surge is the biggest threat in every strong storms.
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


well they said it would happen when she was over the Bahamas and it didn't happen. I am just feeling this storm is a bunch of hype. It looks not very well organized and not very threatening.


thats because it isnt a full hurricane. It isn't going to look as impressive as a full hurricane. It sure looks impressive to me. I don't call a 11 foot storm surge hype though. That is VERY dangerous and the highest to ever be recorded in the north east.
Quoting Dakster:
Any Tsunami alerts from the after-shocks?

Hawaii got hit with a 2.5 Tsunami after the initial quake, so it will be interesting. I just flew out of California yesterday to come home to Sandy, the Storm of the Century. Flying back out in a few weeks, and I'm hoping I'm not going to be flying back to be in the Earthquake of the Century.
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
gotta love my local nws

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE
BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS
FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

That was a great statement. Having spent a large part of my life in emergency services, I wish all NWS offices would issue such clear and urgent messages. I have risked my life to rescue people who ignored warnings and have recovered the bodies of people who were really unlucky. It's not just your life you put in danger, it's a whole bunch of us, many volunteers, that you also put in danger. If you're gong to "ride it out" anyway, at least put your driver's license or some other form of ID in a zip lock bag and staple it into an inside pocket. That makes it easier for us to figure out who you were when we finally pull your body out of the mud.
Quoting Dakster:
Any Tsunami alerts from the after-shocks?


No, but I hear there's an asteroid headed for the North Atlantic. That'll boost the storm surge more than the full moon high tide, I reckon.
Quoting yonzabam:
I'm no met, but I personally think that the NHC doesn't have much of a handle on Frankenstorm. They'll be as reliable as ever on track forecasts, but I think they're 'all over the place' with regard to surge.

Their dynamic graphics say a 10% chance of more than 11 feet of surge in NYC. At the same time they say a 50% chance of a surge greater than 4 feet! Covering their bets, there, I'd say.

I don't think they do hybrid systems well.
This is one of the most accurate forecasts I have ever seen in watching the NHC for 20 years. Since it was south of Jamaica last week they have been spot on with location. They were slightly off on intensity. They underestimated it.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which works closely with nearly 90 private insurance companies to offer flood insurance to property owners and renters. In order to qualify for flood insurance, a community must join the NFIP and agree to enforce sound floodplain management standards.


Link

Correct. My post was referring to people who have no flood insurance. FEMA has no obligation help those people out, except for immediate, life threatening relief.
You can pull it off YouTube 06/13/11 debate "6/13/11: Asked about federal disaster relief to recent tornado and flood victims, GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney called the spending "immoral" and said disaster relief efforts should be privatized.
Here's something very interesting. My two cats love to be outside. They spend their whole day out, but they've been in for 3 hours now and won't go out. This is not normal. Watch your pets. Bring them in and make sure to put them some place they feel safe. Watch out for dog bites. If they get scared, even though they love you, they may bite you. If you can crate them, do it.
NAM 212
12HR 18Z RUN
Quoting Doppler22:

idk about u but this looks kinda threatening too me... (even tho this is while it was near Florida)

Your pictures aren't working.
Hurrican Sandy LIVE: LIVE-Tracker, Chaser TV-Stream`s, LIVE-Weather Data an open Chat: http://www.qicknews.de/Monitore/sandy.php/
Quoting sar2401:

Your pictures aren't working.

i know now nevermind
Bryan Norcross called out the mayor of New York along with the NWS for the Northeast.. WU has always maintained a calm but reassurance to past storms and I dont ever recall Dr. Masters calling out the Mayor of New Orleans, Galveston or any other town that has been hit by a hurricane. I also dont recall him belittling the NWS either..I really like Jim Cantore and Mr. Norcorss but TWC need to take a chill pill and leave the emergency management up to those qualified individuals. Belittling the NWS in the NE will make the public lose trust in them and where are they supposed to go for their weather information, TWC?..will the storm be bad? probably but I dont think confronting the mayor/NWS over the internet is going to change Sandy's mind..if she is coming for the NE, then she is going to come for the NE..
Quoting TerraNova:
On a lighthearted note, OH DEAR GOD.


LOL...with the exception of the excessive use of profanity...it IS kinda funny in a dark humor sort of way.
Quoting Doppler22:

The second time it worked

It still isn't working.
Quoting avthunder:
This is one of the most accurate forecasts I have ever seen in watching the NHC for 20 years. Since it was south of Jamaica last week they have been spot on with location. They were slightly off on intensity. They underestimated it.


Yes, I said the NHC are very reliable with tracks.
Quoting sfranz:
I'm kind of loving that there is a place called "Duck" North Carolina.

Very appropriate.

Yes Duck N.C. is ducky IF you enjoy massive McMansions overlooking one another on ever shifting sands..a bit farther North is Corolla..the road ends and wild horses roam..a lovely place.

P.S GOT IT SLAM THANKS
Quoting TerraNova:
On a lighthearted note, OH DEAR GOD.

"IM SANDY DA HURRICANE, NOT DA RAT THING FROM SPONGEBOB."

Oh my god, this made my day.
Quoting Doppler22:

nevermind
NAM 212
21HR 18Z RUN
Quoting mfcmom:
You can pull it off YouTube 06/13/11 debate "6/13/11: Asked about federal disaster relief to recent tornado and flood victims, GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney called the spending "immoral" and said disaster relief efforts should be privatized.

That's not what he said, and the comments are being used out of context. This is not the right time to discuss this, however, with a major storm bearing down on the Northeast. I'll be happy to discuss it later or via WUmail.
Well, Sandy is starting to round the bend. If you have anything that needs to be done preparation wise, my recommendation would be to get it done tonight. I think the weather is gonna go down hill fairly quick tomorrow..
I haven't seen any mention on here yet of the dropsonde reading of 76 mph that was released from the Gonzo mission at 18:49 GMT. That reading was measured, according to my Google Maps, 215 miles away from the center. If that ain't ridiculous and scary, I don't know what is.
LinkSandy Core on Short Wave Floater Click on Tropical Forecast Pts. If you click on SSTs you can see she's still in warmer water.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
When does this ' Baroclinic Energy " get injected into Sandy? Is it a quick or prolonged process?


It's already happening, as much as I know. Watch Levis last tidbit.
Can you imagine the NE like this..I remember when Irene came through, they had a lot of trees that blew down in NY..

This is in Wilmington today..
643. MZT
This storm is immense. Even forecasts in places like Huntsville AL mention it being windy on Monday and Tuesday, when this thing lands in *New Jersey*.

The forecasts for the NC mountains are becoming increasingly confident of a winter event from the wrap-around NW flow.
seems like the 930-940mm drop in pressure proposed by the models for sandy don`t seem so far-fetched/overhyped now eh?
Quoting sar2401:

That was a great statement. Having spent a large part of my life in emergency services, I wish all NWS offices would issue such clear and urgent messages. I have risked my life to rescue people who ignored warnings and have recovered the bodies of people who were really unlucky. It's not just your life you put in danger, it's a whole bunch of us, many volunteers, that you also put in danger. If you're gong to "ride it out" anyway, at least put your driver's license or some other form of ID in a zip lock bag and staple it into an inside pocket. That makes it easier for us to figure out who you were when we finally pull your body out of the mud.

I understand what your saying, but that's what we do. Was medic in Harlem for 20 years, through riots , ducking shots to help a cop down, pulling people off roofs that are threatening to jump, pulling up on the scene of a shooting with hundreds of people around going nut, jumping in the east river to pull a jumper out. It's that damn adrenaline rush. Becomes addictive. The job would have been unbearable if all I did all day was treating little old ladies and men with complaints of chest pain. It's the morons that made the job so damn interesting!
Quoting sar2401:

That was a great statement. Having spent a large part of my life in emergency services, I wish all NWS offices would issue such clear and urgent messages. I have risked my life to rescue people who ignored warnings and have recovered the bodies of people who were really unlucky. It's not just your life you put in danger, it's a whole bunch of us, many volunteers, that you also put in danger. If you're gong to "ride it out" anyway, at least put your driver's license or some other form of ID in a zip lock bag and staple it into an inside pocket. That makes it easier for us to figure out who you were when we finally pull your body out of the mud.
Isn't "extremely dangerous" the wording used to describe a Category Four Hurricane?
Quoting connie1976:
If NY can't handle a Cat. 1, could you imagine a Cat 3 or higher? Something needs to be done... Also, is Pennsylvania going to get the worst of the storm?
they sent Entergy trucks from our area (45 miles east of Baton Rouge) to Pennsylvania on Saturday
Quoting ncstorm:
Bryan Norcross called out the mayor of New York along with the NWS for the Northeast.. WU has always maintained a calm but reassurance to past storms and I dont ever recall Dr. Masters calling out the Mayor of New Orleans, Galveston or any other town that has been hit by a hurricane. I also dont recall him belittling the NWS either..I really like Jim Cantore and Mr. Norcorss but TWC need to take a chill pill and leave the emergency management up to those qualified individuals. Belittling the NWS in the NE will make the public lose trust in them and where are they supposed to go for their weather information, TWC?..will the storm be bad? probably but I dont think confronting the mayor/NWS over the internet is going to change Sandy's mind..if she is coming for the NE, then she is going to come for the NE..

I tend to agree. I have a lot of respect for Norcross as a meteorologist - but he needs to stick to meteorology. The mayor of NYC may have made a bad decision (I personally think he did) but, if I was a public figure like Norcross, I'd talk about impacts and let the public make their own decisions. Bloomberg will be responsible for his actions, not Norcross.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Seems like she's finally beginning the northward turn.
My daughter and her family live in Bryn Mawr, just outside of Philly to the northwest. This is their new forecast for Monday night:

Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 46. Strong and damaging winds, with a north wind 50 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

The forecast for Tuesday still has gusts to 70 mph predicted. Bryn Mawr is 70+/- miles from Atlantic City. They didn't expect to get such high winds. Philly has closed their schools for tomorrow and SEPTA, the transportation authority, is stopping service at midnight tonight. Many other school districts are also closing as well as the University of Pennsylvania and Temple. They're definitely taking this seriously - even inland.

Quoting Doppler22:

Looks threatening

Looks like Sandy is moving a little faster than anticipated and is staying a bit to the east of the forecast points. I don't know how the slight directional change would influence the final landfall point right now but the increase in forward speed might bring her ashore a little sooner than expected.

Time will tell.

If this picture works... it looks threatening.. besides it doesnt have to look bad to be bad... To be honest Tropical Storm Lee looked harmless to me in the GOM and then it cause havoc around me in PA due to flooding
Here in K.W. we had wind and spitting rain BUT just found out there was some pretty bad flooding.Of course the flooding occured where the houses are built at sea level... I think that was the Navy's idea..with respect..but it was.
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


well they said it would happen when she was over the Bahamas and it didn't happen. I am just feeling this storm is a bunch of hype. It looks not very well organized and not very threatening.


It is this kind of train-of-thought that gets people nominated for Darwinism awards. :Facepalm:
Quoting popartpete:
Isn't "extremely dangerous" the wording used to describe a Category Four Hurricane?

I don't think there is a criteria for what terms are used to describe a hurricane based on the category rating. A dangerous storm is a dangerous storm, and calling it like it is, in consulation with local, state and federal emegency management agencies, is very appropriate, since the public is likely to get word through the NWS as the first "official" agency to issue this type of frank warning.
NAM 212
PM MONDAY
27HR 18Z RUN
661. DFWjc
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Looks like Sandy is moving a little faster than anticipated and is staying a bit to the east of the forecast points. I don't know how the slight directional change would influence the final landfall point right now but the increase in forward speed might bring her ashore a little sooner than expected.

Time will tell.


I do see a slight jog east with the latest loop...
Quoting KeyWestbeachcomber:
Here in K.W. we had wind and spitting rain BUT just found out there was some pretty bad flooding.Of course the flooding occured where the houses are built at sea level... I think that was the Navy's idea..with respect..but it was.



yep - no one actually asks the seagoing part of the Navy before building housing, LOL. Same issues farther North at Little Creek Base - officers' housing just off the Ches Bay on an inland pond - floods all the time with NorEasters.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Seems like she's finally beginning the northward turn.


She is also growing stronger.
Quoting charlottefl:


Wow.. She hasn't even entered the Gulf Stream yet.. look at that warm water.
I think this is the old scale, but this is primarily used for wind damage purposes anymore:

All the talk in North Carolina...from my part of the state...is snow. Waiting on NWS Blacksburg do their snow map for the NC counties north of these. I am looking forward to a interesting Tuesday morning commute to college!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Seems like she's finally beginning the northward turn.


then she is doing it faster than predicted which I then asked in a previous blog about the turn to the NW and W coming sooner as well?

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
.
The North/ Northeast quadrent seems to be rapidly filling out, at landfall, that will end up over New England.
Isn't it sort of unreal that we're talking about a storm of this nature barreling into new jersey? Is new jersey overdue for something like this? What about the east coast? Is it overdue?

I'm asking what are the chances?

This IS noreaster season right? And this storm is not really a full-blooded tropical storm, either. I think this thing has already transitioned to a extra or subtropical storm?
I think that the picture of the damages in Haiti is theater ! How can you explain that only 2 guys are working...and more than hundred are watching ???
PART THREE AND PART FOUR of videos I made of the preparations in Seaside Heights, New Jersey ahead of Hurricane Sandy...
Quoting medicroc:

I understand what your saying, but that's what we do. Was medic in Harlem for 20 years, through riots , ducking shots to help a cop down, pulling people off roofs that are threatening to jump, pulling up on the scene of a shooting with hundreds of people around going nut, jumping in the east river to pull a jumper out. It's that damn adrenaline rush. Becomes addictive. The job would have been unbearable if all I did all day was treating little old ladies and men with complaints of chest pain. It's the morons that made the job so damn interesting!

LOL. True, but I'd prefer not to risk my life rescuing people who were morons about leaving when they had advance warning. There are plenty of other "normal" morons to keep us busy. :)
Quoting RJT185:


It is this kind of train-of-thought that gets people nominated for Darwinism awards. :Facepalm:

My ex-wife wasn't very organized and at116 pounds didn't look very threatening. She almost killed me one night. No joke
Two live stream cams from the coast (Corolla and OBX) ar up at CNN live. Pretty wild!
Most public and private schools in RI are closed tomorrow. Some are also closed for Tuesday (the ones that plan ahead, LOL).
Quoting sar2401:

LOL. True, but I'd prefer not to risk my life rescuing people who were morons about leaving when they had advance warning. There are plenty of other "normal" morons to keep us busy. :)

Lol, brother
677. MZT
Sandy is dominating patterns all over the hemisphere. Still has feeder bands down to Puerto Rico...
Category is based upon winds. With Sandy we're talking about moving water, ie storm surge levels. With Isaac it was dumping precipitation, ie rainfall amounts.

Flooding is the big issue with Sandy. Not category of the storm or what it looks like. That said, a CAT 1 of Sandy's size (windfield) blasting into Central New Jersey is going to do some wind damage as well; however, it is expected to dissipate fairly quickly intensity-wise once it landfalls, from what I have read in NHC reports.

The flooding may or may not be as bad as predicted, depending upon when Sandy makes landfall, but there will be flooding and the results of that could take some time to get over.
Quoting robodave:
Isn't it sort of unreal that we're talking about a storm of this nature barreling into new jersey? Is new jersey overdue for something like this? What about the east coast? Is it overdue?

I'm asking what are the chances?

This IS noreaster season right? And this storm is not really a full-blooded tropical storm, either. I think this thing has already transitioned to a extra or subtropical storm?


No, Sandy is a fully warm-core Category 1 hurricane.
NAM 212
33 HR 18Z RUN
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, Sandy is a fully warm-core Category 1 hurricane.

If anything she is more warm core than yesterday or two days ago.
On post 645 there appears to be a lot of convection still taking on the north side of the storm.How does the hyperbaric go about combining with this to maintain storm intensity?
Quoting MZT:
This storm is immense. Even forecasts in places like Huntsville AL mention it being windy on Monday and Tuesday, when this thing lands in *New Jersey*.

The forecasts for the NC mountains are becoming increasingly confident of a winter event from the wrap-around NW flow.

We're already getting sustained 25 mph with 35 mph gusts all the way down here in Montgomery. BMX just issued a wind advisory for tomorrow, but they are already behind the power curve. The pressure gradient is going to be even more impressive by tomorrow.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

"IM SANDY DA HURRICANE, NOT DA RAT THING FROM SPONGEBOB."

Oh my god, this made my day.


JUS BLEW DA ROOF OFF A OLIVE GARDEN FREE BREADSTICKS FOR EVERYONE

This is my favorite...very funny.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Looks like Sandy is moving a little faster than anticipated and is staying a bit to the east of the forecast points. I don't know how the slight directional change would influence the final landfall point right now but the increase in forward speed might bring her ashore a little sooner than expected.

Time will tell.


Yes, it looks like consensus landfall has been brought forward to late evening near or just slightly after high tide, as opposed to very early morning Tuesday closer to low tide. Also, seeing snowfall event shifting slightly south and east.
Quoting barbamz:
Two live stream cams from the coast (Corolla and OBX) ar up at CNN live. Pretty wild!

great link..there go the idiots live!!
The Battery water level gauge in NYC is active. Looks like someone fixed it a few hours ago.

Showing water levels about 2 feet (a bit more) above normal at present.
688. 7544
some thing might be brewing at 40 west ? 90L
Recon is on the way. We'll see what they find. She hasn't changed much in appearance lately:

Quoting seer2012:
On post 645 there appears to be a lot of convection still taking on the north side of the storm.How does the hyperbaric go about combining with this to maintain storm intensity?

It's baroclinic, and it just means the energy from the trough will phase with the energy from Sandy. This will make the total effect stronger than either weather event separately.
One of the things that has been irking me a little on the news is when the news posts how much storm surge is in hurricanes per each Category. That is, a normal Category 1 produces 4-5 feet storm surge. People might look at that and say 'Oh, Sandy's not that big of a deal, I sit that far above sea level', well the thing is the news isn't explaining that the storm surge is 9-11 feet, which is Category 3 surge. While the NWS is doing so, the news hasn't picked up on that issue from what I've have been seeing, and how this is different than any other Category 1.
Quoting ncstorm:
Can you imagine the NE like this..I remember when Irene came through, they had a lot of trees that blew down in NY..

This is in Wilmington today..

where in wilmington?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Recon is on the way. We'll see what they find. She hasn't changed much in appearance lately:

The Northeast side is filling out, which means heavier rain for southern New England
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Recon is on the way. We'll see what they find. She hasn't changed much in appearance lately:



The eye seems better defined, if anything.
The storm is still warm core, but the western half of the storm has seen some energy injected into it from the trough to the West, I suspect that's part of the reason winds are higher in the western quadrants.
Quoting CothranRoss:

where in wilmington?


Chestnut Street
Washington etc had better keep a real good eye on sandy tomorrow.......................................
Tropical Cyclone Technical Information Statements
FXCN31 CWHX 281800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.57 PM ADT
SUNDAY 28 OCTOBER 2012.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 N AND
LONGITUDE 71.9 W, ABOUT 234 NAUTICAL MILES OR 434 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS (120 KM/H)
AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS
(22 KM/H).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
OCT 28 3.00 PM 32.8N 71.9W 951 65 120
OCT 29 3.00 AM 35.1N 71.0W 951 70 130
OCT 29 3.00 PM 37.6N 71.7W 951 70 130
OCT 30 3.00 AM 39.7N 75.0W 955 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 30 3.00 PM 40.4N 76.6W 964 60 111 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 3.00 AM 41.0N 77.1W 971 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 31 3.00 PM 42.1N 77.3W 977 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.00 AM 43.5N 77.3W 981 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
NOV 01 3.00 PM 45.0N 77.4W 981 30 56 POST-TROPICAL


3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

A MORNING RECONNAISANCE FLIGHT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INTENSITY OR OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM. HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES
TO HAVE A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 65 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 951 MB WAS RECORDED DURING THE FLIGHT AS WELL. THE STORM
MOTION CONTINUES TO BE NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS.

DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTRE OF SANDY AS THE
EYE HAS BECOME EASIER TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM CENTER HAS ALSO MADE THE CENTER
MORE EASILY SEEN. STRONGER CONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT OVER THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SANDY WILL REMAIN OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 26 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL IT MAKES ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND HEADS TOWARDS TO THE US COAST.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY SANDY COULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 30 HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GENERALLY FAVOURABLE. MOST
GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SANDY TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TAKE A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
PHASE SPACE PROGNOSIS INDICATES THAT SANDY WILL REMAIN A WARM CORE
SYSTEM TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING INLAND AS A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

ON TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL
BECOME CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IT IS
HERE WHERE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE
GEM-GLOBAL SHOWING A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
FOLLOWED BY A REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE GFS CURVES
THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE LOOPING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM
NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
POST-TROPICAL SANDY ONCE IT IS INLAND ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND IS RATHER
LOW AT THIS POINT.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
28/18Z 395 355 350 320 260 250 245 240 70 90 105 95
29/06Z 410 360 350 320 280 250 235 225 80 105 110 95
29/18Z 420 360 345 315 285 240 215 195 70 90 90 80
30/06Z 400 335 305 275 240 195 170 145 40 45 45 45
30/18Z 320 265 215 190 130 110 95 80 10 10 10 10
31/06Z 215 180 135 115 30 30 25 20 0 0 0 0
31/18Z 110 100 75 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/06Z 30 30 25 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/18Z 30 30 25 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END/HATT/HUBBARD
Duck, NC now going on 17 hours of non stop tropical storm force winds...

Quoting CybrTeddy:
One of the things that has been irking me a little on the news is when the news posts how much storm surge is in hurricanes per each Category. That is, a normal Category 1 produces 4-5 feet storm surge. People might look at that and say 'Oh, Sandy's not that big of a deal, I sit that far above sea level', well the thing is the news isn't explaining that the storm surge is 9-11 feet, which is Category 3 surge. While the NWS is doing so, the news hasn't picked up on that issue from what I've have been seeing, and how this is different than any other Category 1.


Double ++ Was Norcross basting Mayor B because he waited til 11 a.m. to evacuate Zone A? Not trying to start a rumor, just wondering what happened.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
One of the things that has been irking me a little on the news is when the news posts how much storm surge is in hurricanes per each Category. That is, a normal Category 1 produces 4-5 feet storm surge. People might look at that and say 'Oh, Sandy's not that big of a deal, I sit that far above sea level', well the thing is the news isn't explaining that the storm surge is 9-11 feet, which is Category 3 surge. While the NWS is doing so, the news hasn't picked up on that issue from what I've have been seeing, and how this is different than any other Category 1.


The NHC graphic for storm surge doesn't confirm what you're saying. It says that there is a 50% chance of the surge exceeding 4 feet, and a 10% chance of it exceeding 11 feet. Make of that what you will.
Latest microwave:

Sandy is now expected to remain a hurricane past landfall.
WOCN31 CWHX 281745
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:56 PM ADT Sunday
28 October 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.

For hurricane Sandy.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

Hurricane Sandy to transition to large and dangerous
Post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Parts of Maritimes as well as
Southern Ontario and Quebec will feel some far-reaching effects
From post-tropical storm Sandy later on Monday and Tuesday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.

Location: 32.8 north 71.9 west about 440 kilometres southeast of Cape
Hatteras.

Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/h.

Present movement: northeast at 22 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 951 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane Sandy is currently moving northeastward well southeast of
Cape Hatteras. Sandy is forecast to begin moving northward tonight
while maintaining hurricane intensity. On Monday, Sandy is forecast
to gradually transition into a large and intense post-tropical
cyclone as it turns toward the northwest. It is possible that this
transition could intensify the storm slightly prior to moving inland
somewhere along the New Jersey coast late Monday night or Tuesday
morning.

It is important to emphasize that impacts from post-tropical Sandy
will extend over a large area well away from the storm center.
Impacts over Canadian territory from Sandy are becoming clearer and
there is less uncertainty with respect to the storm. The public in
the affected regions should pay close attention to messages from the
Canadian Hurricane Centre, as well as forecasts and possible warnings
from regional storm prediction centres.

Additional information on potential impacts in Ontario and Quebec
Can be found in the wocn11 special weather statement issued by the
Ontario storm prediction centre, and in the wocn10 special weather
statement issued by the Quebec storm prediction centre.

A. Rainfall.

Based on the current forecast scenario, rain from post-tropical Sandy
will not begin to affect Canadian territory until late Monday
Into Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts in this area will vary
greatly with location. Localised areas may see up to 75
Millimetres. Please refer to the wocn11 special weather statement
issued by the Ontario storm prediction centre for more detail on
where the heaviest rain is most likely.

Rain could also affect other parts of Quebec with amounts of
20 millimetres likely. Heavy rain Tuesday into early Wednesday is
expected over parts of the southwestern Maritimes associated with a
band of rain not directly associated with Sandy. Amounts in these
areas could exceed 50 millimetres.

The precipitation could mix with or change to snow over parts of
South-Central Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as temperatures
approach the freezing mark north and west of the storm.

The Maritimes will likely see significant rainfall late Monday night
and Tuesday, and possibly lingering into Wednesday, from an evolving
frontal system wrapping around the large upper-level circulation from
post-tropical Sandy.

B. Winds.

Most areas of Southern Ontario will be subject to very windy
conditions with possible severe gusts in excess of 100 km/h
especially along Western Lake Ontario and the Niagara Escarpment.
These gusts could cause broken tree limbs or in some cases uprooted
trees which may result in downed utility lines. Residual falling
leaves can also obstruct storm water drainage systems along roadways
particularly in urban areas. This combined with heavy rainfall could
increase the risk of flooding in some areas.

Very strong northeast winds will also affect eastern and Western
Quebec. There is a good probability of wind gusts exceeding 90 km/h.
Gusty winds can also be expected in the Maritimes especially Monday
night.

C. Waves.

Large waves are very likely over portions of the Great Lakes
beginning late Monday and into Tuesday. High seastates up to 6
metres are likely over Southern Lake Huron.

There will be a risk for large waves and pounding surf along the
Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia, especially along the south shore, as
wave activity begins to increase beginning late Monday and peaks on
Tuesday. These large waves could produce pounding surf conditions
and possibly locally elevated water levels.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale force winds extend several hundred kilometres outward from the
center of Sandy's circulation and are expected to spread to Canadian
waters well in advance of Sandy reaching the United States coastline.
The Ontario storm prediction centre has issued gale warnings for many
parts of the Southern Great Lakes for Monday. The Atlantic storm
prediction centre has issued storm force wind warnings and gale
warnings for western maritime marine waters for Monday as well.

Also, higher than normal water levels are expected on the St Lawrence
River during high tide Monday evening and especially Tuesday evening.
This could result in coastal flooding in the Quebec City region.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End


Quoting 7544:
some thing might be brewing at 40 west ? 90L

There are several areas of disorganized convection around 40 west. Nothing jumps out at me saying "90L".
The latest H*Wind Analysis shows a stronger storm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sandy is now expected to remain a hurricane past landfall.

oh boy, as if they needed any more bad news...
Quoting charlottefl:
Duck, NC now going on 17 hours of non stop tropical storm force winds...

Has anyone noticed the -999 temperatures? What's with them?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sandy is now expected to remain a hurricane past landfall.

Would that mean the winds would be more concentrated to the center?
A little shift south... still gonna be bad here in north NJ though
Quoting ncstorm:


Chestnut Street

Wow. That's not far from my house. The tree was dead on the inside, but still. Just imagine this through 500 miles of the NE...
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Has anyone noticed the -999 temperatures? What's with them?


Data suppressed
How often do you see this in an NHC advisory?

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.
models had moved a bit south, now its atlantic city,phila, and washington dc that get the brunt of the center,north of that is where the worst flooding will be..usually
Quoting LargoFl:

The NHC is now in excellent agreement with the models.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The NHC is now in excellent agreement with the models.
yes, going to be a real nasty couple of days for them
Quoting sar2401:

It's baroclinic, and it just means the energy from the trough will phase with the energy from Sandy. This will make the total effect stronger than either weather event separately.

Which is why this will be immensely worse that you "average" Cat 1 80 mph hurricane.
Quoting Chicklit:
Category is based upon winds. With Sandy we're talking about moving water, ie storm surge. With Isaac it was dumping precipitation, ie rainfall amounts. Both result in flooding.

Flooding is the big issue with Sandy. Not category of the storm or what it looks like. That said, a CAT 1 of Sandy's size (windfield) blasting into Central New Jersey is going to do some wind damage as well; however, it is expected to dissipate fairly quickly intensity-wise once it landfalls, from what I have read in NHC reports.

The flooding may or may not be as bad as predicted, depending upon when Sandy makes landfall, but there will be flooding and the results of that could take some time to get over.
3,500 homes in La Place (southwest corner of Lake Pontchartrain) were flooded from 8'-10'ft surge from Lake Pontchartrain- not dumping precipitation

One of the worst hit areas was Plaquemines Parish, about 50 miles southeast of New Orleans, where water spilled over a levee into around 13,000 homes. again surge not rain

the pressure drop in Isaac was the lowest for a system that had not been named a hurricane (somewhere around 976 I think). It became a cat 1 at landfall--- 50 miles south of La Place. So the wind speed or category title was not an indication of what damage Isaac would do. I think Dr. Jeff talked about how pressure drop needs to be considered more when categorizing storms.
Quoting LargoFl:
Washington etc had better keep a real good eye on sandy tomorrow.......................................


Interesting. Models seeming to show a sharp hook, almost due west now.
Just an amateur comment but the MOON IS FULL we are having MOON TIDES on top of surge...there will be flood.
Sandy will make the left hook when convection in its core begins to rapidly enlarge. Only a drop in heights in the core will cause a shift in track of that nature, and it must be significantly convectively driven. So watch for that on imagery overnight.
Quoting charlottefl:


Not sure if they have it on Ipad, but I have one called Hurr Tracker on my Iphone, that I like a lot...



Search comes up empty for Hurr Tracker on my iphone, can you be more specific as there are many Hurricane Tracker ones, thanks!
At this point looking at the landfall point is irrelevant with regards to wind. The strongest winds are well removed from the center, by as much as 166 miles in the NW quadrant

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sandy is now expected to remain a hurricane past landfall.


And still no hurricane warnings. Just don't know how this can be a good idea. Time will tell.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How often do you see this in an NHC advisory?

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.


They always said weather would get weird due to global warming. I guess 'snowcanes' are just an example.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:



And still no hurricane warnings. Just don't know how this can be a good idea. Time will tell.


I personally think she will remain fully warm core until landfall, while at the same time stealing energy from the trough to the West, that's basically what's been going on the last 24 hours..
Quoting sar2401:

LOL. True, but I'd prefer not to risk my life rescuing people who were morons about leaving when they had advance warning. There are plenty of other "normal" morons to keep us busy. :)
Speaking of rescuing morons...watched lifeguards race to rescue two guys off Deerfield Beach, FL while drinking lunch today. Red flags up everywhere, but these morons decided they should go in. Two Broward cops showed up, hope they arrested the morons.
Quoting KeyWestbeachcomber:
Just an amateur comment but the MOON IS FULL we are having MOON TIDES on top of surge...there will be flood.


That adds about 10 inches.
What kind of maximum sustained winds and/or gusts are we expecting?
Quoting KeyWestbeachcomber:
Just an amateur comment but the MOON IS FULL we are having MOON TIDES on top of surge...there will be flood.


Doc Masters has noted that in his blog entries over the past several days... Poor timing for this storm to hit for sure.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:



And still no hurricane warnings. Just don't know how this can be a good idea. Time will tell.
there is something going on between the NHC and the NWS..one reports on tropical..one reports on other storms...since Sandy is going to be neither some NEW kind of storm, a hybrid..they must feel like each is stepping on the others territory
Quoting negriltracy:



Search comes up empty for Hurr Tracker on my iphone, can you be more specific as there are many Hurricane Tracker ones, thanks!


Sorry I guess it's called "Hurricane Tracker" it just shortens it on my screen. It's a blue icon with a hurricane symbol in the center.
738. wxmod
"Typhoon Son-tinh struck Vietnam at about 12:00 GMT on 28 October.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center Linksuggest that the point of landfall was near20.1 N,106.8 E.Son-tinh brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 166 km/h (103 mph).Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofSon-tinh'sstrength (category 2)at landfall includes:

* Storm surge generally 1.8-2.4 metres (6-8 feet) above normal."http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/typhoon-son-ti nh-struck-vietnam-at-about-1200-gmt-on-28-october/
Quoting charlottefl:
Duck, NC now going on 17 hours of non stop tropical storm force winds...


Not sustained, however. Current wind is 24 mph and highest gust recorded so far today is 48 mph.
Why haven't there been Tropical Storm watches/warnings issued for DC/Baltimore/Philly/Nyc yet?
Not even on the coast.
She's east of them all right now, following the UKMET the closest:

Quoting yonzabam:


That adds about 10 inches.
Maybe where you live..just sayin.
surfed today nice was little overhead strongoffshore winds decreasing fast ecen florida bet the west coast of puerto rico gets a nice swell from this.
Quoting AllStar17:


Interesting. Models seeming to show a sharp hook, almost due west now.
yes this really is one confounding storm for the forecasters huh
Quoting weathercurious25:
What kind of maximum sustained winds and/or gusts are we expecting?

Where at? Big range depending on location and landfall.
Quoting BaltOCane:
Why haven't there been Tropical Storm watches/warnings issued for DC/Baltimore/Philly/Nyc yet?
Not even on the coast.




they are using high wind warnings that's why
There is an exceptionally large area of 60mph winds with this storm. All of them currently offshore at the moment....
749. maeko
Jim Cantore said he just watch a fully loaded cruise ship leave NY for Bahamas in 30' seas!

I really, really hope that is not what that ship is doing!
Quoting sar2401:

Not sustained, however. Current wind is 24 mph and highest gust recorded so far today is 48 mph.






Quoting maeko:
Jim Cantore said he just watch a fully loaded cruise ship leave NY for Bahamas in 30' seas!

I really, really hope that is not what that ship is doing!

He mentioned that ship was planning to leave this afternoon during a live report earlier today... unbelievable.
Quoting Tazmanian:




they are using high wind warnings that's why


I would imagine people would take it more seriously if TS or Hurricane watches/warnings were issed...
don't you?
Quoting BaltOCane:
Why haven't there been Tropical Storm watches/warnings issued for DC/Baltimore/Philly/Nyc yet?
Not even on the coast.


The NHC/NWS have decided that the best course of action is not to issue TS/Hurricane watches/warnings, and rather just flooding and high-winds warnings, to avoid having to make the change when Sandy becomes post-tropical. I personally don't see what the big problem would be with just issuing both at the same time.
I wonder if she's not trying to move towards the warmer water she's probably feeling from the Gulf Stream?
Quoting charlottefl:
There is an exceptionally large area of 60mph winds with this storm. All of them currently offshore at the moment....
just look at this HUGE blob of tropical storm force winds, size takes up 2-3 states all at once
Mount Mitchell, NC is already below freezing.

Gusts to over 100mph possible.
Sandy is actually looking much, much more tropical in nature than she did yesterday. Convection right around the centre.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


The NHC/NWS have decided that the best course of action is not to issue TS/Hurricane watches/warnings, and rather just flooding and high-winds warnings, to avoid having to make the change when Sandy becomes post-tropical. I personally don't see what the big problem would be with just issuing both at the same time.


I totally agree with you. I over look coastal flooding warnings all the time because I'm inland.
But a TS/Hurr warning, I listen.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Sandy is actually looking much, much more tropical in nature than she did yesterday. Convection right around the centre.
yes i just saw that
before she gets to dc, before she gets to philly, she's got to go over bal'mer.  just reminding.
Quoting BaltOCane:


I totally agree with you. I over look coastal flooding warnings all the time because I'm inland.
But a TS/Hurr warning, I listen.


I understand that from their point of view there is no difference between the two in terms of on the ground effects, but the reality is that people just perceive these things so differently.
763. DFWjc
The Scope of Hurricane Sandy over on Cnet
Link
Quoting plutorising:
before she gets to dc, before she gets to philly, she's got to go over bal'mer.  just reminding.


we always get forgotten here in B-More, don't we?
765. wxmod
Mid Atlantic



This is Route 1 - a main evacuation route at the Delaware Beaches. Closed now from the Indian River Inlet bridge to Dewey Beach, as the dunes have already been breached. Crazy!!
Quoting wxmod:
Mid Atlantic

Manhattan, Monday, October 29th, 2012
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY OF SANDY HAS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AT
951-952 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 78 KT WERE MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...BUT NO
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WERE DETECTED IN ANY
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD OF
SANDY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT MISSED SOME OF THE POCKETS
OF STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13 KT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN NEARLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO THERE
REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE
HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL FORECASTS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN
DECREASING...AND SOME WEAK OUTFLOW IS NOW APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A RESULT SANDY IS EXPECTED
MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE
HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 25C. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME BAROCLINIC DEEPENING AS SANDY
BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE COAST. A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS
TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 33.4N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 35.0N 70.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 39.5N 74.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/1800Z 40.2N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z 42.7N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1800Z 44.7N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 45.6N 71.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting BaltOCane:


we always get forgotten here in B-More, don't we?
yes if the track hold that whole tri-state corner is going to deal with her cnter wind,surge and possibly tornado's that land falling hurricanes throw off when they come ashore...you folks really pay attention to this storm, regardless of what name they may give her..she IS..a hurricane
Boy even WV is getting in on the action. They may get over two feet of snow along with some wind gust which could reach 80 mph. That is going to be another place of power outages.
771. DFWjc
Quoting BaltOCane:


we always get forgotten here in B-More, don't we?


Just Like the O's and and the Ravens....Zing!
772. wpb
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How often do you see this in an NHC advisory?

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.
never ever
CYCLONE SANDY
18L/TC/S/XXXX
MARK
33.50N/71.05W
from crown weather
wunderground blog friends...my community is expected to be in the right front quadrant of Sandy. Winds are expected to be 80 with gusts to 95. I don't know the correct term, but am I right that in a RFQ scenario, the winds are higher, as you have to take the forward momentum into factor. So, does that mean that I could see 95 mphs winds and gusts to 110? Please let me know.
Conditions are suppose to deteriorate rapidly tomorrow.
Quoting tinkahbell:


This is Route 1 - a main evacuation route at the Delaware Beaches. Closed now from the Indian River Inlet bridge to Dewey Beach, as the dunes have already been breached. Crazy!!

Picture didn't work.
Quoting DFWjc:


Just Like the O's and and the Ravens....Zing!


Not this year with the O's :-) and the Ravens have beenin the playoffs the last 4 years, so I don't know where that's coming from....

and @Largo, I'm prepared for anything here. Although the tornado threat is not huge here, I know what to look for.
Gov. Chafee (RI) Declared a state of Emergency for Rhode Island.
Watch Hurricane #Sandy roll in live

Link
Quoting Walshy:
Mount Mitchell, NC is already below freezing.

Gusts to over 100mph possible.

I don't think people realize how inland the impacts are going to be...I am in SE MI and in Toledo, OH they are expecting 55 mph damaging gusts as shown by the NWS forecast! Now...I am starting to think I need to prepare for a brief period without power on Tuesday...(my NWS office in SE MI says gusts to 40 mph). As far west as Chicago...there are lakeshore flood warnings!

The worst of inland impacts are going to be in high-elevation areas like in mount mitchell...in the Appalachians...where winds are not limited by surface friction. Also...winds above lakes and those just downwind of the lakes are going to be high...(that is why their are forecasts for high winds above the Great Lakes but no so high over land)

Not to mention their could be blizzard conditions in the mountains. A blizzard warning was issued for parts of WV just now...O_o



Wash115- Looks like you may be in the strongest quadrant....
784. DFWjc
Quoting BaltOCane:


Not this year with the O's :-) and the Ravens have beenin the playoffs the last 4 years, so I don't know where that's coming from....

and @Largo, I'm prepared for anything here. Although the tornado threat is not huge here, I know what to look for.


Being from Texas, our Newspaper guys never give props to y'alls team....I love the O's because they have my favorite Manager....

on a serious note...why isn't she keep moving east? what's bringing her back to the west???
Quoting popartpete:
wunderground blog friends...my community is expected to be in the right front quadrant of Sandy. Winds are expected to be 80 with gusts to 95. I don't know the correct term, but am I right that in a RFQ scenario, the winds are higher, as you have to take the forward momentum into factor. So, does that mean that I could see 95 mphs winds and gusts to 110? Please let me know.

It appears that the right front rule isn't working with Sandy. The highest winds so far are being reported to the south and west of the center of the storm. 95 mph winds with 110 mph gusts are extremely unlikely anywhere, even right on the coast. Unless you're some kind of secret agent, it helps a lot just to say where you live if you want information.
Quoting sar2401:

It appears that the right front rule isn't working with Sandy. The highest winds so far are being reported to the south and west of the center of the storm. 95 mph winds with 110 mph gusts are extremely unlikely anywhere, even right on the coast. Unless you're some kind of secret agent, it helps a lot just to say where you live if you want information.
I live in Seaside Heights, New Jersey.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

He mentioned that ship was planning to leave this afternoon during a live report earlier today... unbelievable.


Navy ships always head out to sea to ride out the storm. It's safer than being anchored in port. Same applies to cruise (or any other) ships.
Everytime a model run is coming up i keep having this fear/anticipation that the models are going to all of a sudden shift majorly....like sending Sandy into Norfolk or instead of going North after landfall turning South and doing a loop down to coast.


I have no basis for the fear/anticipation and know all the above are unlikely with all the models in such close agreement...but still...every model run i anxiously await to see what it says lol

...fear is the wrong word...but you know what i mean...we are in unknown waters here..the anticipation of "anything could happen"
Quoting washingtonian115:
Conditions are suppose to deteriorate rapidly tomorrow.

Be prepared in Washington DC for severe wind gusts for a 2-day span...which means you may not get power restored for days...and its gonna get a bit cold outside so think of ways to stay warm without power...

And the wide area of power outages means utilities surrounding your area are going to be too busy to chip in and help out while they fix their own power...that is going to make the power outages last a long time...
So, lemme get this right....

Evacuate 370,000 people from NY City, and the Transit System is shutting down around now?

I'm missing something, right?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Latest microwave:


Really trying hard
Quoting bappit:
The latest H*Wind Analysis shows a stronger storm.


I see we're now up to 5.8 out of 6 on the surge damage scale.
Quoting charlottefl:
Wash115- Looks like you may be in the strongest quadrant....
Lovely..But We are prepared here.Batteries,flashlights,water,non parashable foods,blankets and the holloween candy!.seems my area will not be celebrating holloween and the kids are sadden but happy school will be closed perhaps for a period of time.
Quoting charlottefl:
Wash115- Looks like you may be in the strongest quadrant....
yes indeed, my daughter also, we'll see tomorrow if the tracks still hold,but that area should be watching this storm carefully and preparing.
Quoting DFWjc:


Being from Texas, our Newspaper guys never give props to y'alls team....I love the O's because they have my favorite Manager....

on a serious note...why isn't she keep moving east? what's bringing her back to the west???


the tilted cold front will pull her back west
Quoting pottery:
So, lemme get this right....

Evacuate 370,000 people from NY City, and the Transit System is shutting down around now?

I'm missing something, right?
it could be, the evacuee's just move inland in the city, away from the low lying flood prone shoreline parts in zone-A
From Wall Street Journal

By MATT JARZEMSKY

The New York Stock Exchange NYX +0.32% said its trading floor would be closed starting Monday, the first such shutdown in 27 years, as New York City braced for Hurricane Sandy and a shutdown of the city's transit system.

Trading in all securities listed on the Big Board will be moved to Arca, an electronic trading platform operated by New York Stock Exchange parent NYSE Euronext, according to a statement by the company. The market operator said activity will also be suspended on its NYSE MKT exchange, formerly known as the Amex.

The slightly slower forecast track now brings Sandy into the coastline at the time of high tide. Storm surge near the Long Island Sound and Battery Park is expected to be 13-15 feet!
Quoting LargoFl:
it could be, the evacuee's just move inland in the city, away from the low lying flood prone shoreline parts in zone-A

Sounds simple enough...
370,000 is a lot of people.....
801. DFWjc
Quoting will40:


the tilted cold front will pull her back west


Ah, ok, for some reason I was thinking it would push not pull...
Quoting BaltOCane:


Not this year with the O's :-) and the Ravens have beenin the playoffs the last 4 years, so I don't know where that's coming from....

and @Largo, I'm prepared for anything here. Although the tornado threat is not huge here, I know what to look for.
thats good news, so many i hear are ignoring this storm, thinking its going to new york and new jersey
803. sigh
Quoting sar2401:

I don't know where you're getting your information. No one that I've seen wants to privatize FEMA.

He's probably getting his information from the June 13, 2001 primary debate, moderated by John King.

Transcript:

KING: Governor Romney? You’ve been a chief executive of a state. I was just in Joplin, Missouri. I’ve been in Mississippi and Louisiana and Tennessee and other communities dealing with whether it’s the tornadoes, the flooding, and worse. FEMA is about to run out of money, and there are some people who say do it on a case-by-case basis and some people who say, you know, maybe we’re learning a lesson here that the states should take on more of this role. How do you deal with something like that?

ROMNEY: Absolutely. Every time you have an occasion to take something from the federal government and send it back to the states, that’s the right direction. And if you can go even further and send it back to the private sector, that’s even better....

KING: Including disaster relief, though?

ROMNEY: We cannot — we cannot afford to do those things without jeopardizing the future for our kids. It is simply immoral, in my view, for us to continue to rack up larger and larger debts and pass them on to our kids, knowing full well that we’ll all be dead and gone before it’s paid off. It makes no sense at all.
Quoting charlottefl:


Sorry I guess it's called "Hurricane Tracker" it just shortens it on my screen. It's a blue icon with a hurricane symbol in the center.


Thanks I just bought it and it looks great, wish I had it last week!!!

Can't believe Sandy hit us here in Jamaica and is now threatening my mother in NYC...what are the odds?!?!?!
Stay safe everyone...
One Love
805. wxmod
Quoting Methurricanes:
Manhattan, Monday, October 29th, 2012


Not carved in stone.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The slightly slower forecast track now brings Sandy into the coastline at the time of high tide. Storm surge near the Long Island Sound and Battery Park is expected to be 13-15 feet!

Bloomberg must be thrilled !
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The slightly slower forecast track now brings Sandy into the coastline at the time of high tide. Storm surge near the Long Island Sound and Battery Park is expected to be 13-15 feet!


Slightly faster? :@)
Quoting pottery:

Sounds simple enough...
370,000 is a lot of people.....
yes, they sure took their time issuing the evac order, if things happen, the folks will know who to blame
809. sigh
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The slightly slower forecast track now brings Sandy into the coastline at the time of high tide. Storm surge near the Long Island Sound and Battery Park is expected to be 13-15 feet!

Source for the 13-15 estimate?
Quoting negriltracy:


Thanks I just bought it and it looks great, wish I had it last week!!!

Can't believe Sandy hit us here in Jamaica and is now threatening my mother in NYC...what are the odds?!?!?!
Stay safe everyone...
One Love


I like it has a lot of good features. Especially the map section. Everything you need if you're on the go...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I don't think people realize how inland the impacts are going to be...I am in SE MI and in Toledo, OH they are expecting 55 mph damaging gusts as shown by the NWS forecast! Now...I am starting to think I need to prepare for a brief period without power on Tuesday...(my NWS office in SE MI says gusts to 40 mph). As far west as Chicago...there are lakeshore flood warnings!

The worst of inland impacts are going to be in high-elevation areas like in mount mitchell...in the Appalachians...where winds are not limited by surface friction (that is why their are forecasts for high winds above the Great Lakes but no so high over land). Also...winds above lakes and those just downwind of the lakes are going to be high...

Not to mention their could be blizzard conditions in the mountains. A blizzard warning was issued for parts of WV just now...O_o




Speaking of SE MI, here is the other SE MI blogger. TWC says gusts over 50mph and NWS says over 40mph. There will at least be a wind advisory issued by the NWS. Some areas may even be put under high wind warnings. We will also be getting rain from Sandy.
Quoting pottery:
So, lemme get this right....

Evacuate 370,000 people from NY City, and the Transit System is shutting down around now?

I'm missing something, right?

I think they are asking them to move away from low-lying areas into areas of higher-elevation...not leave the entire city...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
From Wall Street Journal

By MATT JARZEMSKY

The New York Stock Exchange NYX +0.32% said its trading floor would be closed starting Monday, the first such shutdown in 27 years, as New York City braced for Hurricane Sandy and a shutdown of the city's transit system.

Trading in all securities listed on the Big Board will be moved to Arca, an electronic trading platform operated by New York Stock Exchange parent NYSE Euronext, according to a statement by the company. The market operator said activity will also be suspended on its NYSE MKT exchange, formerly known as the Amex.



I was afraid of that. Hopefully the world markets don't over-react to it and the day is treated like a holiday.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storm surge near the Long Island Sound and Battery Park is expected to be 13-15 feet!


Not expected to be. The NHC product gives a 10% chance of the storm surge exceeding 13-15 feet. When you increase the probability on the product to 50%, it shows surge of 5-7 feet, which is still significant.
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
501 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

ANZ537-290515-
/O.UPG.KLWX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-121031T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KLWX.HF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-121031T0000Z/
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
501 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY. THE STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...64 KNOTS OR GREATER WITHIN THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND
WARNING. 48 TO 63 KNOTS WITHIN THE STORM WARNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$
I'm out in Chicago and NWS is now calling for sustained offshore winds 50 - 60mph on Tuesday, blowing south across Lake Michigan and toward Indiana. Atlantic isn't the only coast that's going to get some beach erosion from this! Waves could peak above 30 feet. Incredible.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzon e=LMZ744&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place 1=6NM+ENE+Gary+IN&product1=Storm+Warning
Quoting washingtonian115:
I have water,blankets,non-parashable foods,flashlights,batteries,first aid kits.So I'm more than ready.Oh and the holloween candy that me and my family and eat on since it looks like holloween will be completly cancelled around here.

Mother doesn't believe this storm will be server so we have invited her over to stay through the week.


Well, stay safe, and keep us updated, as long as you have power anyways..
Quoting sigh:

Source for the 13-15 estimate?


NHC says a 50% chance of greater than 4 feet surge, which means a 50% chance of less than 4 feet.

It also says a 10% chance of a greater than 11 feet surge. Make of that what you will.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Speaking of SE MI, here is the other SE MI blogger. TWC says gusts over 50mph and NWS says over 40mph. There will at least be a wind advisory issued by the NWS. Some areas may even be put under high wind warnings. We will also be getting rain from Sandy.

What's funny to me is that their is a high wind warning to our SE in Ohio...and a wind advisory to our west for the LP of Michigan. Why are we in the middle with nothing? LOL...

Either they are going to extend the high wind warning from Ohio...or perhaps we are too far downwind from lake Michigan to experience that much wind...
Quoting charlottefl:







This must be a personal weather station - and it's not working correctly. It has been showing 47 mph winds for hours, and the temperature and dewpoint readings are clearly inaccurate. The official weather station is at Kill Devil Hills (KFFA), and it's not showing winds anywhere near 47 mph sustained. Kill Devil Hills
Does anyone else think she may be getting better organized?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The slightly slower forecast track now brings Sandy into the coastline at the time of high tide. Storm surge near the Long Island Sound and Battery Park is expected to be 13-15 feet!


For a perspective Is near two times the size of Shaquille O'neal!!!!!!!!Yikes
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

What's funny to me is that their is a high wind warning to our SE in Ohio...and a wind advisory to our west for the LP of Michigan. Why are we in the middle with nothing? LOL...

Either they are going to extend the high wind warning from Ohio...or perhaps we are too far downwind from lake Michigan to experience that much wind...

I read the NWS discussion and they are waiting until the next forecast period to issue anything. It seems NWS Detroit is a little slow in these types of things. We will be under a wind advisory or high wind warning.
Here I sit in West Virginia this time there is a storm. My home in South Carolina barely got any rain. I am not sure to plan for up here. Rain, wind, snow, no power, and me in a hotel room. Glad I can lurk on the channel! Thanks guys!
Quoting sar2401:

This must be a personal weather station - and it's not working correctly. It has been showing 47 mph winds for hours, and the temperature and dewpoint readings are clearly inaccurate. The official weather station is at Kill Devil Hills (KFFA), and it's not showing winds anywhere near 47 mph sustained. Kill Devil Hills


I'm not gonna argue about the accuracy because I can't see the station, but it hasn't been at 47 for hours. If you look at the graph its clearly been fluctuating between 40-50mph. And is fairly in line with wind speeds in NHC discussions and public statements showing winds generally in the 40's gusting to near 60 on the outer banks.


EDIT: Unofficial weather obs for the outer banks from NWS in NC:
.. Dare County...
Alligator bridge 56 213 PM 10/28 weatherflow
Avon ocean 59 642 am 10/28 weatherflow
Avon sound 60 328 PM 10/28 weatherflow
Buxton 58 320 PM 10/28 weatherflow
Duck 60 1212 PM 10/28 dukn7
Frisco Woods 59 900 am 10/28 weatherflow
Frisco 51 1005 am 10/28 khse
Hatteras high 64 325 PM 10/28 weatherflow
Hatteras Village 63 1006 am 10/28 hcgn7
jenettes pier 72 245 PM 10/28 weatherflow
Jockeys Ridge 48 1222 PM 10/28 weatherflow
Kill Devil Hills 48 255 PM 10/28 kffa
Manteo 56 855 am 10/28 kmqi
Oregon Inlet 61 430 am 10/28 weatherflow
Oregon Inlet 55 1100 am 10/28 orin7
Oregon Inlet cg 64 328 PM 10/28 weatherflow
Pamlico Sound 62 235 am 10/28 weatherflow
Rodanthe 62 328 PM 10/28 weatherflow khk resort
waves 60 1119 PM 10/28 weatherflow real slick
waves 53 243 PM 10/28 weatherflow
Quoting yonzabam:


NHC says a 50% chance of greater than 4 feet surge, which means a 50% chance of less than 4 feet.

It also says a 10% chance of a greater than 11 feet surge. Make of that what you will.
remember if this comes in at High tide, that 11 foot figure could be accurate, but really..anyone up there who remembers the flooding from irene..this storm is double the size and its NOT..passing by like Irene, she is coming ashore, there's a big difference in surge amounts between the two..and all sandy has to do is send in a foot or two higher surge than Irene..and huge flooding takes place
For all of you that live in the areas that will be affected by Sandy, please know that I will be praying for your safety throughout. Ya'll know that I have a daughter and her family plus many military friends that I have met that live from RI all the way down to Kings Bay. I also have a family member that is a dreaded FEMA person (lol) that is already on their way NE and will be on standby until declarations enable them to proceed to their assigned destination. This is not just your storm it is my storm too. I know that all of you are taking this matter seriously. I just wish that all of the other millions of people that aren't did.
Stock market floor will be closed but electronic trades will continue.

Link
Quoting charlottefl:


Well, stay safe, and keep us updated, as long as you have power anyways..
Their is a possibility we get 80mph gust even though the local mets are calling for 60-65mph the highest.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I read the NWS discussion and they are waiting until the next forecast period to issue anything. It seems NWS Detroit is a little slow in these types of things. We will be under a wind advisory or high wind warning.

If this is the case...this will be my first high wind warning since I moved here. Does that usually mean a high risk of power outages...how does the community here handle that?
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Does anyone else think she may be getting better organized?


People have been saying that since early this morning. There have been many people flagging up a new eye forming, but it's yet to happen.
waves at manasquan nj

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/manasquan-nor theast_4278/
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MINOR FLOODING.

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO A POSITION OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND
MOVING TOWARD THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL THEN
TRACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

DAMAGING WINDS: A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES.

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE STORM. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE
95...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RISES ON RIVERS FROM HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR MINOR FLOODING AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC WILL
RANGE BETWEEN ONE TO THREE FEET.

MARINE AREAS...A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BY EARLY MONDAY...STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS...50 KNOTS OR
HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF HURRICANE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY LATE MONDAY
MORNING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY TO BELOW GALE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT IS MORE LIKELY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

$$
Zoomable Storm Surge Map

Posted one of these last night. The heights as Cody said have gone up, now that Sandy may come in at high tide. These numbers have a 10% chance of being EXCEEDED. Hope Cantore has a plan when Battery Park goes bye-bye.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Their is a possibility we get 80mph gust even though the local mets are calling for 60-65mph the highest.

Even if its 60 to 65 mph...we aren't talking about a severe t-storm that lasts for minutes...or a typical tropical cyclone lasting for part of a day...this is going to last for a long time...
Quoting aerojad:
I'm out in Chicago and NWS is now calling for sustained offshore winds 50 - 60mph on Tuesday, blowing south across Lake Michigan and toward Indiana. Atlantic isn't the only coast that's going to get some beach erosion from this! Waves could peak above 30 feet. Incredible.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzon e=LMZ744&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=& ;local_place 1=6NM+ENE+Gary+IN&product1=Storm+Warning

No, the warning doesn't say 50-60 mph sustained.

"Winds... northerly at sustained speeds of 30 to 35 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph."

Chicago Weather
839. bwat
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening.

Sunday Evening Video Update on Sandy
Last comment got lost.....anyway, whats your youtube name so I can add your channel. Thanks in advance.
Same Sandy. Lacking CDO, but that really doesn't matter with this system. The surge is what is going to be the big deal.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

If this is the case...this will be my first high wind warning since I moved here. Does that usually mean a high risk of power outages...how does the community here handle that?

Well it definitely won't be our last if we are under a high wind warning. If we aren't under one for Sandy there is a decent chance for one in November. DTE is good with handling power issues like this. The trees can bring down power lines pretty easily if the are older. Check our local news channels and city websites for more details. Usually people will be pretty friendly with this stuff if you lose power. Of course, hopefully we don't lose power.
Quoting Astrometeor:
These numbers have a 10% chance of being EXCEEDED. Hope Cantore has a plan when Battery Park goes bye-bye.


Yes, but given that the same product gives a 50% chance of surge EXCEEDING 4-7 feet, then by simple mathematics they give more than a 50% chance that the surge will be LESS than 11-13 feet.
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
443 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VA HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MARYLAND...

MONOCACY RIVER NEAR FREDERICK AFFECTING FREDERICK COUNTY

MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE MONOCACY AS A RESULT OF EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES ACROSS THE BASIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY...THIS IS HOW MOST
FLOOD DEATHS RESULT.

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR
LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET.

&&
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Even if its 60 to 65 mph...we aren't talking about a severe t-storm that lasts for minutes...or a typical tropical cyclone lasting for part of a day...this is going to last for a long time...
Looks like Sandy will be a hurricane longer past landfall than originally thought.If she doesn't lose her tropical identity completly she will have a 95% chance of retirement.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes, they sure took their time issuing the evac order, if things happen, the folks will know who to blame


Just to clarify from someone who's lived on both sides of this (I spent 24 hours in a car running from Rita).

The evacuation order appears late to those who've lived in other hurricane-threatened coasts, but it's perfectly reasonable in New York City.

The emergency plans in New York City don't involve people leaving the city; people are just instructed to head to higher ground within the city based on the severity of the storm.

To clarify the evacuation and public transit shutdown: the mandatory evacuation and public transit shutdown were announced this morning. This gives people in the city 8-10 hours to address the situation, and unlike a place where you have to drive, that is plenty of time for people to get out of harm's way and into shelters/homes of other people.

While this may sound crazy (i.e. how can they be safe when they're that close to the ocean?), it makes sense on several levels:

1. The main threat in this storm is flooding (as it will be with most tropical events in the city), so getting to high ground will help to avoid most risks to life. The continued wind should not be discounted, and will cause outages in the outer boroughs (where the power lines are above ground), but there will not be the risks to life from the wind that you would see in a major gulf/SE coast storm).

2. It would be practically impossible to actually evacuate the city inland. The evacuation would have to have been called while the storm was well south of Cuba for that even to be possible, and, if you do it, where are you going to put everyone from Long Island and NYC?

3. Even staying in the city, people have to evacuate to somewhere and that is either staying with friends or family or in a shelter. Fewer people would have evacuated had you called the evacuation yesterday as opposed to this morning, and there is still plenty of time for them to get where they need to go (I was out earlier and the subways are running just fine and with extra trains).

Will some people get stuck without transit? Quite possibly, but it isn't a failure of planning on the city's part.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Same Sandy. Lacking CDO, but that really doesn't matter with this system. The surge is what is going to be the big deal.



Heyas SJ. 5.7 out of 6.0 for surge energy? geesh.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Sandy will be a hurricane longer past landfall than originally thought.If she doesn't lose her tropical identity completly she will have a 95% chance of retirement.


I'd be absolutely shocked if Sandy wasn't retired based solely one effects away from the US so far.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Yes, but given that the same product gives a 50% chance of surge EXCEEDING 4-7 feet, then by simple mathematics they give more than a 50% chance that the surge will be LESS than 11-13%.


I think just strictly based on the angle of approach and the fact that the storm is slightly stronger than Irene when it made landfall, you can reason that the surge will be at least as high as during Irene, most likely higher... How much? I don't think anyone knows for sure at this point, kinda in uncharted waters here.
Quoting charlottefl:


I think just strictly based on the angle of approach and the fact that the storm is slightly stronger than Irene when it made landfall, you can reason that the surge will be at least as high as during Irene, most likely higher... How much? I don't think anyone knows for sure at this point, kinda in uncharted waters here.


Absolutely, which is why I think we're better looking at this subjectively, and compared to previous storms rather than the NHC's utterly useless probabilistic chart.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
445 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-291115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.121029T1900Z-121031T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.CF.W.0004.121029T1900Z-121030T1700Z/
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
445 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EDT
TUESDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TIDAL
TRIBUTARIES.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES DURING
THE MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDES.

* AT CAMBRIDGE...MARYLAND...THE MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 447 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 4.5 TO 5.0 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
456 AM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF AROUND 4.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT TOLCHESTER BEACH...MARYLAND...THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 748 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF AROUND 4.5 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 748 AM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF AROUND 4.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADS MAY FLOOD AND SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE IS
POSSIBLE.

* RAINFALL...6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD.
HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL FORCE CONSIDERABLE
SMALL STREAM RUNOFF INTO CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES
AND EXACERBATE TIDAL FLOODING.

* PRECURSOR FLOOD EPISODE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE OR MAJOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER
LEVELS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND
YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY...PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Even if its 60 to 65 mph...we aren't talking about a severe t-storm that lasts for minutes...or a typical tropical cyclone lasting for part of a day...this is going to last for a long time...

I expect 65 mph gusts will be the highest we see inland at low altitudes, since Sandy will be waeking some, combined with the normal frictional effects of winds over land. The real question is what will the sustained winds be? 65 mph gusts can cause some minor damage, but even 50 mph sustained winds over a period of hours will bring down almost every tree in the neighborhood and cause lots of roof and outbuilding damage. My RV awning is a good example. It's well anchored and has withstood 65 mph gusts. Sustained 45 mph winds cost me a new awning last year, and that was only sustained winds over about a half hour.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I'd be absolutely shocked if Sandy wasn't retired based solely one effects away from the US so far.
Places like Haiti have been known not to request retierment.I think Cuba and Jamacia will.Not sure about the Dominican republic and the Bahamas.
I would expect a little intensification as it crosses the GS, but right now she is currently well off of the Gulf Stream.

Quoting Levi32:
Good evening.

Sunday Evening Video Update on Sandy


Thanks for that. Still very unclear on the storm surge, which I think the NHC might be underestimating.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The slightly slower forecast track now brings Sandy into the coastline at the time of high tide. Storm surge near the Long Island Sound and Battery Park is expected to be 13-15 feet!

According to what source?
Quoting NICycloneChaser:

Not expected to be. The NHC product gives a 10% chance of the storm surge exceeding 13-15 feet. When you increase the probability on the product to 50%, it shows surge of 5-7 feet, which is still significant.

We have to be careful not to confuse storm surge with storm tide.
Storm tide is total water, storm surge is just a component of total water. Typically it is
[Storm Surge] plus [Astronomical Tides] = [Storm Tide]

Also important to keep in mind... the NOAA graphic's Y-axis is NOT in feet above NGVD29 or NAVD88 datum (which in many locations are near-approximations of sea level). The plot for Battery Park, NYC, NY indicates that average sea level is about 2.7ft. If you adjust for this datum, then you have roughly 2.1ft high tide plus 5.4ft storm surge, yielding ~7.5ft total water level.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Places like Haiti have been known not to request retierment.I think Cuba and Jamacia will.Not sure about the Dominican republic and the Bahamas.


Cuba probably will, the damage and destruction there was the worst since Hurricane Dennis, worse than Gustav, Ike and Paloma from what I understand it.
Quoting RJT185:


It is this kind of train-of-thought that gets people nominated for Darwinism awards. :Facepalm:



Just realize that you are probably arguing with a child here based on his or her statement that his friends were going to party in the Battery. Hope they swim well.
Ok IF I understood what I have been reading, this storm is actually getting stronger and may move in farther south than originally thought. What does that mean for those of us in Ohio. We are already feeling some effects of the front that has merged and also have a high wind alert for tomorrow thru tuesday. My concern is snowfall from this monster, esp if the winds come over the warm great lakes.
Willy Wonka: "The suspense is terrible... I hope it'll last!"
Plus you have to add wave action on top of the storm surge, which is mainly for coastal locations, I'm not sure how that works in a harbor...
The new NHC is faster not slower
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Cuba probably will, the damage and destruction there was the worst since Hurricane Dennis, worse than Gustav, Ike and Paloma from what I understand it.
I read somewhere that Ike was Cuba's worst so I don't beleive Sandy will top him.Maybe the top 3.
Im sorry this is so long, but its important people know....HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION...BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT ALONG OCEAN FACING SHORELINES BY LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ON TOP OF THE
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE NEAREST TO SEA LEVEL. AT THE SAME TIME...5 TO 10
FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
FACING PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...PECONIC BAY...AND NEW
YORK HARBOR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND
WASHOVERS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE FELT FOR FIRE ISLAND
COMMUNITIES SUCH AS FAIR HARBOR...OCEAN BEACH...CHERRY
GROVE...FIRE ISLAND PINES AND DAVIS PARK.

* TIMING...MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY
WITH THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY BY THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING...POSSIBLY TO RECORD LEVELS...IS LIKELY
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MODERATE TO MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IN POSSIBLE INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES CYCLE.

* IMPACTS...A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH
MINOR COASTAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON MONDAY...WITH
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE COASTAL STORM
WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLES...BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS INCREASING FOR SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE SPOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

&&

...NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

THE BATTERY NYC.....831 AM.........8.7.............MODERATE..
BERGEN POINT NY.....830 AM.........9.2.............MODERATE..


...WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MON MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

KINGS POINT NY......1159 AM........12.2............MODERATE..
LATTINGTOWN NY......1158 AM........12.3............MODERATE..
STAMFORD CT.........1131 AM........12.3............MODERATE..
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1128 AM........12.7............MODERATE..
NEW HAVEN CT........1128 AM........10.3............MODERATE..


...EASTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MON MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

NEW LONDON CT.......928 AM.........6.3.............MODERATE..


...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR MON MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

E ROCKAWAY INLET NY.814 AM.........7.5/6.0.........MODERATE..
FREEPORT GAGE NY....858 AM.........6.9/6.2.........MAJOR.....
JAMAICA BAY NY......840 AM.........9.2/7.0.........MODERATE..
POINT LOOKOUT.......741 AM.........7.6/6.5.........MODERATE..

...OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR MON MORNING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

MONTAUK POINT NY....903 AM.........6.0.............MODERATE..


...NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY EVENING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

THE BATTERY NYC.....813 PM.........11.7.............MAJOR....
BERGEN POINT NY.....814 PM.........12.3.............MAJOR....

...WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MON EVENING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

KINGS POINT NY......1227 AM........16.6.............MAJOR....
LATTINGTOWN NY......1205 AM........16.7.............MAJOR....
STAMFORD CT.........1201 AM........16.4.............MAJOR....
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1158 PM........15.9.............MAJOR....
NEW HAVEN CT........1157 PM........15.3.............MAJOR....

...EASTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MON EVENING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

NEW LONDON CT.......952 PM.........10.0.............MAJOR....

...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR MON EVENING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

E ROCKAWAY INLET NY..814 PM.........11.3/9.8.........MAJOR...
FREEPORT GAGE NY.....858 PM.........10.6/9.8.........MAJOR...
JAMAICA BAY NY.......900 PM.........11.6/9.4.........MAJOR...
POINT LOOKOUT........801 PM.........11.0/7.0.........MAJOR...

...OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR MON EVENING...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)........ ............

MONTAUK POINT NY....102 AM.........8.5...............MAJOR...

$$
We got to wait until the storm passes to see if the storm deserves to be retired.
Looks like she may be starting her turn... hope not, as this could bring her in further south - Maryland's Eastern Shore or Delaware perhaps... worse for us in SE VA since the strongest winds are on her SW quad.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

If this is the case...this will be my first high wind warning since I moved here. Does that usually mean a high risk of power outages...how does the community here handle that?


Trees are more or less defoliated. 50 MPH gusts shouldn't cause widespread outages. Service is restored quicker in urban areas. Detroit Edison is quicker at restoring power than Consumers Energy. Just my opinions.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I read somewhere that Ike was Cuba's worst so I don't beleive Sandy will top him.Maybe the top 3.


I remember reading that as well, so maybe just the death toll is worse than Ike.
that ship that lift new York they are heading in too 30 too 40 foot seas I think thing may not turn out well on that ship I think a 40 foot wave can overe turn or sink a ship
Quoting washingtonian115:
I read somewhere that Ike was Cuba's worst so I don't beleive Sandy will top him.Maybe the top 3.
I thought the worst storm in Cuba was Michelle of 2001.
I see no turn the west at all yet, what I do see is that the center is slightly east of the forecast points
Water levels in coastal Maryland are currently running 2ft above forecast..
IF Sandy does what she is forecasted to do, it will not matter whether Haiti, DR, or Cuba asks for retirement. The US will retire her.

FWIW, I hope that isn't the case..


Bridgeport Connecticut





Port Jefferson NY
Quoting breald:
Boy even WV is getting in on the action. They may get over two feet of snow along with some wind gust which could reach 80 mph. That is going to be another place of power outages.



Canaan Valley and Snowshoe Mountain could get up to 5 feet.
Quoting Tazmanian:
that ship that lift new York they are heading in too 30 too 40 foot seas I think thing may not turn out well on that ship I think a 40 foot wave can overe turn or sink a ship


What is the name of that ship? (Andrea Gail II?)
Quoting allancalderini:
I thought the worst storm in Cuba was Michelle of 2001.
Ike caused 7.3 billion in Cuba which was higher than Michelle.
Quoting goosegirl1:



Canaan Valley and Snowshoe Mountain could get up to 5 feet.
..yes west of penna there is a blizzard warning out
Flight level winds as high as 108mph are being reported by recon, but they are not mixing down to the surface at all.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Speaking of SE MI, here is the other SE MI blogger. TWC says gusts over 50mph and NWS says over 40mph. There will at least be a wind advisory issued by the NWS. Some areas may even be put under high wind warnings. We will also be getting rain from Sandy.


I am in NW Ohio about 80 miles south of Toledo and we are going to be getting the same type of winds, my concern is snow. What kind of snowfall should we be expecting, esp since these winds are going to be coming over the warm lakes.
Quoting Dakster:


What is the name of that ship? (Andrea Gail II?)



no it was a Cruise ship that lift new York today heading in too 30 too 40 foot waves


am not sure if that ship will make it ok with out being overe turn
18z GFS looks similar to previous runs, maybe just a hair north:

I don't know if this has been posted or not, but if it has it deserves to be posted again. If you are unsure if you should evacuate or not and live in a mandatory evacuation zone, please read this:

000
NOUS41 KPHI 281841
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010- 012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-291200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE
BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS
FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.


4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ike caused 7.3 billion in Cuba which was higher than Michelle.


Ivan 2004
Quoting maeko:
Jim Cantore said he just watch a fully loaded cruise ship leave NY for Bahamas in 30' seas!

I really, really hope that is not what that ship is doing!




Hmmmm!!!!!!!!!!
yes taz and you just posted it again
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS looks similar to previous runs, maybe just a hair north:

Does it develops Valerie in this run?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ike caused 7.3 billion in Cuba which was higher than Michelle.
Oh ok thanks.
Quoting stormchaser19:




Hmmmm!!!!!!!!!!



things may not turn out well for that ship
Quoting wolftribe2009:


Ivan 2004


It was the worse hurricane to strike Cuba since Hurricane Flora in 1963
i'll bet the cruise ship captain thought they'd be better off away from the docks and in open waters.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Same Sandy. Lacking CDO, but that really doesn't matter with this system. The surge is what is going to be the big deal.



Hey Storm, you going to chase this one??
Quoting Jarhead6012:
Ok IF I understood what I have been reading, this storm is actually getting stronger and may move in farther south than originally thought. What does that mean for those of us in Ohio. We are already feeling some effects of the front that has merged and also have a high wind alert for tomorrow thru tuesday. My concern is snowfall from this monster, esp if the winds come over the warm great lakes.

Moderately high winds and rain appear to be the biggest issue. Sandy is wrapping in enough tropical air into whatever kind of extra-tropical/frontal low that it appears snow will not be a major issue, and Ohio may not see any snow at all. The greatest threats from heavy snow look to be the higher altitude parts of southern PA. WV, western VA, and the highlands of NC. Those are the only places with winter storm watches out so far, and I think this is the correct solution. I have been saying for many days that Sandy will have transported way too much tropical air north for this to turn into "Snowmaggedon". I guess "Frankenstorm" will have to do. :)
Quoting Tazmanian:



no it was a Cruise ship that lift new York today heading in too 30 too 40 foot waves


am not sure if that ship will make it ok with out being overe turn


Taz, do you mean to tell me that you have never watched The Perfect Storm?

I think that ship will fair better at sea than it would in port, BUT I would NOT want to be on it.
For earlier.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Sandy will be a hurricane longer past landfall than originally thought.If she doesn't lose her tropical identity completly she will have a 95% chance of retirement.

I believe given the effects on Cuba & Haiti she will be retired regardless of what happens from here on out. Just my opinion....
Quoting Jarhead6012:


I am in NW Ohio about 80 miles south of Toledo and we are going to be getting the same type of winds, my concern is snow. What kind of snowfall should we be expecting, esp since these winds are going to be coming over the warm lakes.

You could get a couple inches of snow, nothing too bad. I could get an inch or so per the GFS and Euro.
I saw that cruise ship leaving NYC too.
I'm astounded the Coast Guard has not ordered her back. Even if no passengers are aboard, it's suicide for the crew.
Quoting allancalderini:
Does it develops Valerie in this run?Oh ok thanks.

I don't know, the run's barely started... I don't think it has been though for the last few runs. There's a decent chance Tony was our last named storm this year.
Hey Jarhead, good to see you. Nope, not heading up for this one. Got work to do here.
Quoting allancalderini:
Does it develops Valerie in this run?Oh ok thanks.

The run isn't over yet and not in the time frame that it has developed Valerie before.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Taz, do you mean to tell me that you have never watched The Perfect Storm?

I think that ship will fair better at sea than it would in port, BUT I would NOT want to be on it.



amd have you evere watch that movie call Poseidon wish was a Cruise ship that overe turn by a 30 to 40 foot wave
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I believe given the effects on Cuba & Haiti she will be retired regardless of what happens from here on out. Just my opinion....
Read post 853.
Quoting Tazmanian:



amd have you evere watch that movie call Poseidon wish was a Cruise ship that overe turn by a 30 to 40 foot wave


That was a fictional movie. The Perfect Storm was based on real events. It was a small fishing vessel and was likely facing 60' or more waves when it sank.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I don't know if this has been posted or not, but if it has it deserves to be posted again. If you are unsure if you should evacuate or not and live in a mandatory evacuation zone, please read this:

000
NOUS41 KPHI 281841
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007&g t;010- 012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-291200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE
BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS
FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.


4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

Link


Ever since the Katrina post of 2005...these things have gotten bolder and bolder. I guess it's for the best.
Quoting Tazmanian:



things may not turn out well for that ship

WTH? I can't believe they'd let that cruise ship leave...maybe I'd understand if they were sailing NE into the Altantic high seas...but they are going right toward the storm if they are headed south of the Bahamas...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Just got off work. Looks like DC is in for a heck of a storm.
Quoting ButteAmerica:
I saw that cruise ship leaving NYC too.
I'm astounded the Coast Guard has not ordered her back. Even if no passengers are aboard, it's suicide for the crew.


They have plenty of time to move north, away from the worst. Yes, it will be a bit rough but these large ships with their technology can handle it (fingers crossed).

Keeping this ship in port is liable to cause millions in damage to ship and the terminal.
If she's not a hurricane she's at least close. From recon:

63.0 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
Tropical Storm
Anyone have a link to a Battery Park cam? I've been searching but can't find a good one. I think it would be very interesting to watch through the next two days to see if the water goes as high as it is expected..
Quoting stormchaser19:




Hmmmm!!!!!!!!!!

Depends on the kind of ship
Quoting plutorising:
i'll bet the cruise ship captain thought they'd be better off away from the docks and in open waters.

Depending on the ship, he's probably right. If it's one of the newer 115,000 ton megaliners, it's much better off at sea, even in 40 foot swells, using active stabilization and computer control of heading and attitude. Staying in port leaves the vessel at risk from a combination of storm surge and battering waves. The US Navy has done the same thing, with carriers, cruisers, and destroyers/frigates being ordered out to sea to ride out the storm away from the hazards of being in port.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey Jarhead, good to see you. Nope, not heading up for this one. Got work to do here.


Got ya, this time I will be feeling some effects from this one. Already have some gusty winds, rain showers and clouds moving out of the northeast and this thing is still how far out to sea?
Quoting goosegirl1:



Canaan Valley and Snowshoe Mountain could get up to 5 feet.


where is that forecast? One I saw for WV mtns siad up to 8" in the high elevations.
916. DFWjc
Quoting 21Jake:
Anyone have a link to a Battery Park cam? I've been searching but can't find a good one. I think it would be very interesting to watch through the next two days to see if the water goes as high as it is expected..


Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

He mentioned that ship was planning to leave this afternoon during a live report earlier today... unbelievable.


I have been seeing boats and ships of all sizes heading out of the harbor all day. I've been wondering "What are they thinking?" I imagine that they should be finding themselves feeling like a rubber duck in a washing machine once they get out of the harbor very far.
Quoting charlottefl:


I personally think she will remain fully warm core until landfall, while at the same time stealing energy from the trough to the West, that's basically what's been going on the last 24 hours..

have we forgotten the 10 mph warm core gulf stream boost? or the baroclinic cold-core boost? Check out my wordpress blog for more on this. ill do another update at 8-9.
http://forecasterjack.wordpress.com/
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

WTH? I can't believe they'd let that cruise ship leave...maybe I'd understand if they were sailing NE into the Altantic high seas...but they are going right toward the storm if they are headed south of the Bahamas...


Cruise ships reserve the right to change the destination due to bad weather.....I've been on a cruise ship in 40' swells and it's awful.....
found two different ships cams that were mentioned in the blog.

http://www.kroooz-cams.com/caribbean/caribbean1.p hp

http://www.cruise-cams.com/pages/royal_caribbean_ international_explorer_of_the_seas_bow_view_zoom.h tm
Quoting DFWjc:


Link


Thanks but I was looking for something streaming and that one hasn't updated in almost 4 hours...
New GFS is truly a worst case scenario for southern New England
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


I have been seeing boats and ships of all sizes heading out of the harbor all day. I've been wondering "What are they thinking?" I imagine that they should be finding themselves feeling like a rubber duck in a washing machine once they get out of the harbor very far.


Much safer out there, than tied to something that is about be broken. Navy does this all day out of Norfolk, when the big one center on Hampton Roads. But, they must hand out a lot of green pills that were taken off the market a long time ago, before that voyage.
Hurrican Sandy LIVE-Page: http://www.qicknews.de/Monitore/sandy.php/ (Tracking, TV-Stream`s, Weather Data, open Chat, Chaser Stream`s...)
moved to new blog