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Sandy likely to be a multi-billion dollar disaster for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:28 PM GMT on October 27, 2012

Hurricane Sandy is holding its own against high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and has regained its Category 1 strength after falling to tropical storm strength early this morning. Sandy is a massive storm, with tropical storm-force winds that span a 660-mile diameter area of ocean from a point even with central Florida northwards to a point off the central North Carolina coast. Twelve-foot high seas cover a diameter of ocean 1,000 miles across. A buoy 150 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida reported sustained winds of 63 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 9:43 am EDT. Another buoy about 100 miles east of the coast of Georgia reported sustained winds of 69 mph at 11:52 am EDT. Due to the high wind shear and interaction with a trough of low pressure to Sandy's west, the storm has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is partially exposed to view, with a small clump of heavy thunderstorms near the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane.


Figure 1. Early afternoon satellite image of Sandy.

Sandy's death toll at 48
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, with a total death toll that now stands at 48. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 34 dead. The toll will likely rise as remote areas cut off from communications are reached. Cuban state media is reporting that eleven people were killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with 35,000 homes damaged or destroyed. Cuba is probably the most hurricane-prepared nation in the world, and it is unusual for them to experience such a high death toll in a hurricane. Sandy was Cuba's deadliest hurricane since Category 4 Hurricane Dennis killed sixteen people in 2005. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in the Bahamas, and 1 in Puerto Rico.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 40 knots for the next two days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will inject "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy's drop in central pressure from 969 mb at 5 am to 960 mb at 8 am this morning may be due, in part, to some baroclinic energy helping intensify the storm. This sort of effect helps spread out the storm's strong winds over a wider area of ocean; Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds are predicted to expand from 660 miles to 760 miles by Sunday afternoon. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat very high. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. Sandy's large wind field will drive a damaging storm surge of 3 - 6 feet to the right of where the center makes landfall. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs have come into better agreement on the timing and landfall location of Sandy. Our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, both call for landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning, with the center coming ashore between Delaware and New York City.

A multi-billion dollar disaster likely in the U.S.
I expect Sandy's impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts to cost at least $2 billion in insured damage and lost business, and there is a danger the storm could cost much more. Steve Bowen, meteorologist for insurance broker AON Benfield, put it this way for me this morning: "Given the level of losses associated with Irene last year and the current projections of extended high wind, heavy rainfall, coastal surge and an inland flooding threat for many of the same areas with Sandy, it would not come as a complete surprise to see a multi-billion dollar economic loss." Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for a billion dollars in wind damage.


Figure 2. Storm surge from Tropical Storm Irene at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island on Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:48 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.13 feet. The storm tide--how high the water got when factoring in both the tide and the storm surge--peaked at 9.5' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 8:42 am. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFS model, and predicts that the peak storm surge from Sandy will reach 5.5' on Monday night October 29, which is 1.4' higher than Irene's storm surge. This forecast has the peak surge occurring near high tide, bringing the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 10.5', a foot higher than Irene. At this level, water will very likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy.

Sandy's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system, costing billions
Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its peak winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be about 5% higher than typical, increasing the potential for damaging storm surge flooding. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. If Sandy hits near New York City, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. However, the town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to the storm surge, and fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. New York was not as lucky on December 12, 1992, when a 990 mb Nor'easter drove an 8-foot storm surge into Battery Park, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory, Sandy's storm surge may be higher than Irene's, and has the potential to flood New York City's subway system (Figure 4.) The amount of water will depend critically upon whether or not the peak storm surge arrives at high tide or not. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide near 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 30% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.” A substantial portion of New York City's electrical system is underground in flood-prone areas. Consolidated Edison, the utility that supplies electricity to most of the city, estimates that adaptations like installing submersible switches and moving high-voltage transformers above ground level would cost at least $250 million. Lacking the means, it is making gradual adjustments, with about $24 million spent in flood zones since 2007. At a conference I attended this summer in Hoboken on natural hazards on urban coasts, I talked to an official with Consolidated Edison, who was responsible for turning off Lower Manhattan's power if a storm surge floods the subway system. He said that he was ready to throw the switch during Irene, but was glad it turned out not to be needed.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Thursday morning, November 1, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 5. Actual rainfall for 2011's Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy's rains are predicted to be about 20% less than Irene's. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.



Figure 6. Top: Current soil moisture profiles over the mid-Atlantic show mostly near-average amounts of moisture, with some dry areas in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. In contrast, soil moisture profiles just before Hurricane Irene arrived, on August 24, 2011 (bottom) ranked in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) over portions of NJ, PA, and NY. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


Figure 7. A comparison of river levels just before Hurricane Sandy's arrival (left) and just before Hurricane Irene of 2011 (right) shows that river levels were much higher in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast prior to the arrival of Irene. The area of highest concern for river flooding for Sandy is eastern Pennsylvania, where river levels are in the 76 - 90th percentile, and soil moisture is in the 70th percentile. Image credit: USGS.

Sandy's rains
Sandy is expected to dump 5 - 10 inches of rain along the coast near the point the center comes ashore, and 3 - 4 inches several hundred miles inland. Higher isolated rainfall amounts of fifteen inches are likely. Rains of this magnitude are going to cause trouble. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 4) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 5), Sandy's are expected to be about 20% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland (Figure 6.) One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 2 - 4 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. However, it is quite possible that the axis of heaviest rains will shift northwards from this forecast. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

Links
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.

People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.
Five-minute video of Hurricane Sandy on Thursday as seen from the International Space Station.

I'll probably leave this post up until late morning Sunday, unless there are some significant changes to report.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL
Hurricane Sandy Sea Foam - Marineland FL
The amount of sea foam generated by the high sustained winds is impressive as Hurricane Sandy floods the beach at Marineland Florida. You can see the palms in the background straining against the wind.
Ormond Beach, Florida
Ormond Beach, Florida
Hurricaine Sandy
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants
Deerfield Beach Fl. Sandy remnants
West coast style waves

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

No doubt in my mind something went by this buoy, Station 46419 a few minutes ago. Whether it's tsunami or not, no idea. May very well be illegitimate as people are saying, so no one freak out yet. So far no news.
Fort Point, New Hampshire 12:02 AM GMT-07 (3 hours, 7 minutes from now)
I think there's a little kink in the system there, unless crazy energy particle guy is onto something.
Quoting Orcasystems:


My sister lives about 40 miles from the center... no contact yet.

I take it you called her. Did you feel it?
Saw on a tweet from some folks living on Massett Island.. they are being evacuated now.

http://twitter.com/HaidaPrincess/statuses/2624044 77301178368
So a 7.7 magnitude quake off of Haida Gwaii, prompting a tsunami warning, and a souped-up Sandy about to become a mutant storm on steroids and become something potentially very destructive for a very wide swath of people.

Maybe I should get some beer tomorrow and toast the Mayans.

But in all seriousness, these are scary times, and I can only hope that everyone stays safe.
(edited)

Tsunami warning NOT lifted.
Quoting LostTomorrows:
So a 7.7 magnitude quake off of Haida Gwaii, prompting a tsunami warning, and a souped-up Sandy about to become a mutant storm on steroids and become something potentially very destructive for a very wide swath of people.

Maybe I should get some beer tomorrow and toast the Mayans.

But in all seriousness, these are scary times, and I can only hope that everyone stays safe.


it'll be ridiculous o say 12/21/12 is the real end...look at what's happening
1008. air360
About 4 minutes until first notice of a Tsunami according to those reports....the anticipation is killing me
Since I haven't seen the 00z GFS posted,here is where it makes landfall.

An hour after the first Masset quake I was wondering why the new pages weren't showing it. Yahoo, MSNBC, NBC, CBS all had nothing. Only Fox had it on their header and ABC was listing an AP blurb about the 5.8 aftershock but not the 7.7.
1011. yqt1001
Quoting stribe37:
Hmm, according to CBC, Environment Canada has already dropped the tsunami warnings.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/st ory/2011/03/11/tsunami-warnings-bc.html


Still there :P That article is from the Japanese earthquake in March 2011.

Edit: You updated your post
1012. air360
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Since I haven't seen the 00z GFS posted,here is where it makes landfall.



I like your style - you cut right to the chase...no need for every single hour to be posted at this point.
:)
1013. Grothar
Quoting CloudGatherer:
The potential Tsunami is forecast to hit Langara Island sixteen minutes from now, if it materializes at all. Please tell me how you think it might have reached Seattle before then?



Federal Express? I don't know. I'm not a seismologist or a tsunaminologist.
Hence my quick edit. THe perils of Twitter and reading too quickly

Quoting yqt1001:


Still there :P That article is from the Japanese earthquake in March 2011.
BULLETIN
PUBLIC TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
910 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

A SMALL TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED ON A DEEP OCEAN PRESSURE SENSOR.
THE WARNING REGION REMAINS THE SAME IN THIS BULLETIN.
Google map link
Tsunami Warning for AK, British Columbia, US East Coast and US West Coast

Langara Island, British Columbia 9:16 PM GMT-07 (9 minutes from now)
Sitka, Alaska 8:42 PM GMT-08 (35 minutes from now)
Elfin Cove, Alaska 8:53 PM GMT-08 (46 minutes from now)
Tofino, British Columbia 10:09 PM GMT-07 (1 hour, 2 minutes from now)
Craig, Alaska 9:10 PM GMT-08 (1 hour, 3 minutes from now)
Neah Bay, Washington 10:18 PM GMT-07 (1 hour, 11 minutes from now)
Charleston, Oregon 10:36 PM GMT-07 (1 hour, 29 minutes from now)
Seaside, Oregon 10:36 PM GMT-07 (1 hour, 29 minutes from now)
Westport, Washington 10:36 PM GMT-07 (1 hour, 29 minutes from now)
Yakutat, Alaska 9:40 PM GMT-08 (1 hour, 33 minutes from now)
Crescent City, California 10:53 PM GMT-07 (1 hour, 46 minutes from now)
Seward, Alaska 10:16 PM GMT-08 (2 hours, 9 minutes from now)
Kodiak, Alaska 10:23 PM GMT-08 (2 hours, 16 minutes from now)
Valdez, Alaska 10:31 PM GMT-08 (2 hours, 24 minutes from now)
Cordova, Alaska 10:40 PM GMT-08 (2 hours, 33 minutes from now)
Sand Point, Alaska 11:00 PM GMT-08 (2 hours, 53 minutes from now)
Fort Point, New Hampshire 12:02 AM GMT-07 (2 hours, 55 minutes from now)
Dutch Harbor, Alaska 11:21 PM GMT-08 (3 hours, 14 minutes from now)
Santa Barbara, California 12:22 AM GMT-07 (3 hours, 15 minutes from now)
Homer, Alaska 11:27 PM GMT-08 (3 hours, 20 minutes from now)
San Pedro, California 12:39 AM GMT-07 (3 hours, 32 minutes from now)
Cold Bay, Alaska 11:43 PM GMT-08 (3 hours, 36 minutes from now)
Adak, Alaska 11:45 PM GMT-08 (3 hours, 38 minutes from now)
La Jolla, California 12:51 AM GMT-07 (3 hours, 44 minutes from now)
Shemya, Alaska 12:29 AM GMT-08 (4 hours, 22 minutes from now)
St. Paul, Alaska 12:42 AM GMT-08 (4 hours, 35 minutes from now)

Recommended actions

Recommended Actions: People in low-lying coastal areas should be alert to instructions from their local emergency officials. If in a tsunami warning coastal area, move inland to higher ground. Next update and additional information: This message will be updated in 30 minutes or sooner if the situation warrants. The tsunami message will remain in effect until further notice. Refer to the internet site wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov for more information.

Add:
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
910 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

A SMALL TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED ON A DEEP OCEAN PRESSURE SENSOR.
THE WARNING REGION REMAINS THE SAME IN THIS BULLETIN.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM
THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...
Quoting EastTexJake:
An hour after the first Masset quake I was wondering why the new pages weren't showing it. Yahoo, MSNBC, NBC, CBS all had nothing. Only Fox had it on their header and ABC was listing an AP blurb about the 5.8 aftershock but not the 7.7.


Its actually no where near Massett, its about 40 miles south of Sandspit (YZP)
1018. air360
Quoting CloudGatherer:
BULLETIN
PUBLIC TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
910 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

A SMALL TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED ON A DEEP OCEAN PRESSURE SENSOR.
THE WARNING REGION REMAINS THE SAME IN THIS BULLETIN.


Does the term "Small Tsunami" seem like an oxymoron to anyone else?
Location

52.769%uFFFDN 131.927%uFFFDW depth=17.5km (10.9mi)

Nearby Cities

139km (86mi) S of Masset, Canada
202km (126mi) SSW of Prince Rupert, Canada
293km (182mi) SW of Terrace, Canada
556km (345mi) NW of Campbell River, Canada
635km (395mi) SSE of Juneau, Alaska

near the surface
Quoting EastTexJake:
An hour after the first Masset quake I was wondering why the new pages weren't showing it. Yahoo, MSNBC, NBC, CBS all had nothing. Only Fox had it on their header and ABC was listing an AP blurb about the 5.8 aftershock but not the 7.7.


I know. I was just looking myself. I've got many friends in the area. I don't know about anyone else, but ummmm... a 7.7 ANYWHERE has to be major news, isn't it? Kind of gives me a sick feeling right now.

1022. air360
Kamil Karamali ‏@KamilKaramali

Coast guard in #PrinceRupert confirms that it's a #tsunami WARNING, and not a watch
Quoting EastTexJake:
An hour after the first Masset quake I was wondering why the new pages weren't showing it. Yahoo, MSNBC, NBC, CBS all had nothing. Only Fox had it on their header and ABC was listing an AP blurb about the 5.8 aftershock but not the 7.7.
its a weekend and the corporate world has slashed jobs so deep theres no journalists working on weekends
No posts on the QCC facebook pages in over an hour... so no internet.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


I know. I was just looking myself. I've got many friends in the area. I don't know about anyone else, but ummmm... a 7.7 ANYWHERE has to be major news, isn't it? Kind of gives me a sick feeling right now.



i got friends and family in that area too... hmmm
1026. yqt1001
Both major Canadian news outlets have the earthquake up as the top story. CTV however, has the facts wrong. :P

Andrea Janus, CTV News
Published Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012 12:04AM EDT
Last Updated Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012 12:20AM EDT

A 7.1-magnitude earthquake has struck off the British Columbia coast, triggering a tsunami warning for a region stretching from Vancouver Island to Alaska.
Quoting air360:
Kamil Karamali ‏@KamilKaramali

Coast guard in #PrinceRupert confirms that it's a #tsunami WARNING, and not a watch


Any visual confirmation of a tsunami?
1028. guygee
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


But to hear some of the folks here, FOX isn't a real news channel. MSNBC however is. Sad.
How about neither one...that is the case from my perspective. But FOX especially has a more dedicated following.
Sometimes doctors say that heavy drinkers are "self-medicating", so watching FOX news is "self-indoctrinating".

Same goes for all MSM sources really. If you want real news, read a wide variety from all over the world and keep in mind the bias that every news source has.
CNN now has the 7.7 quake news story
The Chicago Tribune was all over the Earthquake an hour ago. Link
Quoting yqt1001:
Both major Canadian news outlets have the earthquake up as the top story. CTV however, has the facts wrong. :P

Andrea Janus, CTV News
Published Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012 12:04AM EDT
Last Updated Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012 12:20AM EDT

A 7.1-magnitude earthquake has struck off the British Columbia coast, triggering a tsunami warning for a region stretching from Vancouver Island to Alaska.


When in doubt, go with CBC

B.C. coast struck by 7.7 quake
CBC News
Posted: Oct 27, 2012 8:44 PM PT
Last Updated: Oct 27, 2012 9:10 PM PT


A tsunami warning has been issued for coastal British Columbia following a magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck near Haida Gwaii on Saturday night, the U.S. Geological Survey reported.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre said there was the possibility of “widespread dangerous coastal flooding accompanied by powerful currents.”

The quake was centred 198 kilometres south-southwest of Prince Rupert at a depth of 10 km, the USGS said.

“A major earthquake occurred in the Haida Gwaii region (formerly known as the Queen Charlotte Islands). It was felt across much of north-central B.C., including Haida Gwaii, Prince Rupert, Quesnel and Houston. There have been no reports of damage at this time,” Natural Resources Canada said in a statement issued Saturday nigh
Quoting air360:


Does the term "Small Tsunami" seem like an oxymoron to anyone else?

I would tend to agree with ya
Quoting yqt1001:
Both major Canadian news outlets have the earthquake up as the top story. CTV however, has the facts wrong. :P

Andrea Janus, CTV News
Published Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012 12:04AM EDT
Last Updated Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012 12:20AM EDT

A 7.1-magnitude earthquake has struck off the British Columbia coast, triggering a tsunami warning for a region stretching from Vancouver Island to Alaska.

7.1 was the 1st advisory, then upped to 7.7
Quoting air360:


Does the term "Small Tsunami" seem like an oxymoron to anyone else?
A tsunami is a technical term, not a description of height. In this case, the estimates I'm seeing are of max heights around 1.7m. That's still quite nasty.
1035. yqt1001
Quoting Orcasystems:


When in doubt, go with CBC

B.C. coast struck by 7.7 quake
CBC News
Posted: Oct 27, 2012 8:44 PM PT
Last Updated: Oct 27, 2012 9:10 PM PT


A tsunami warning has been issued for coastal British Columbia following a magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck near Haida Gwaii on Saturday night, the U.S. Geological Survey reported.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre said there was the possibility of “widespread dangerous coastal flooding accompanied by powerful currents.”

The quake was centred 198 kilometres south-southwest of Prince Rupert at a depth of 10 km, the USGS said.

“A major earthquake occurred in the Haida Gwaii region (formerly known as the Queen Charlotte Islands). It was felt across much of north-central B.C., including Haida Gwaii, Prince Rupert, Quesnel and Houston. There have been no reports of damage at this time,” Natural Resources Canada said in a statement issued Saturday nigh


Of course, I always use CBC. In this case, however it only solidifies their dominance, they were first to post about the earthquake and first to be correct about everything we know.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


But to hear some of the folks here, FOX isn't a real news channel. MSNBC however is. Sad.


I have heard many people here correctly criticizing FOX. However I do not recall a single post suggesting that MSNBC was any better.

Please take your paranoia to one of the right wing radical blogs. FSM knows there are many to choose from!

Quoting PensacolaDoug:


But to hear some of the folks here, FOX isn't a real news channel. MSNBC, or as I prefer, MSLSD however, is. Sad.


None of them are real news channels. CNN is the closest thing and even they are pretty much a big joke.

Nobody should base their "facts" on cable news channels of any network
Quoting IFuSAYso:

7.1 was the 1st advisory, then upped to 7.7



you got it mixs up it was 7.7 then they downgrade it too a 7.1
another aftershock. 4.8
1040. yqt1001
Quoting IFuSAYso:

7.1 was the 1st advisory, then upped to 7.7


The news article was made long after the magnitude was upped to 7.7.
Quoting yqt1001:
Both major Canadian news outlets have the earthquake up as the top story. CTV however, has the facts wrong. :P

Andrea Janus, CTV News
Published Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012 12:04AM EDT
Last Updated Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012 12:20AM EDT

A 7.1-magnitude earthquake has struck off the British Columbia coast, triggering a tsunami warning for a region stretching from Vancouver Island to Alaska.


NWS-WCATWC Tsunami Warning

WEPA41 PAAQ 280410
TSUWCA

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
910 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

A SMALL TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED ON A DEEP OCEAN PRESSURE SENSOR.
THE WARNING REGION REMAINS THE SAME IN THIS BULLETIN.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM
THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS
ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
- IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER
GROUND.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 7.7
TIME - 1904 AKDT OCT 27 2012
2004 PDT OCT 27 2012
0304 UTC OCT 28 2012
LOCATION - 52.9 NORTH 131.9 WEST
25 MILES/40 KM S OF SANDSPIT BRITISH COLUMBIA
385 MILES/620 KM SE OF JUNEAU ALASKA
DEPTH - 12 MILES/19 KM

TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
INUNDATION IS IMMINENT... EXPECTED OR OCURRING. WARNINGS INDICATE
THAT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING ACCOMPANIED BY POWERFUL
CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 30 MINUTES OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

BCZ220-210-922-912-921-911-110-AKZ026>029-280510-
/O.CON.PAAQ.TS.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/
910 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

PEOPLE IN TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MOVE INLAND TO
HIGHER GROUND.

TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
INUNDATION IS IMMINENT... EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. TSUNAMIS ARE A
SERIES OF WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL
ARRIVAL TIME.

ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED
SITES IN THE WARNING ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

LANGARA 2116 PDT OCT 27 CRAIG 2110 AKDT OCT 27

FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV

$$
Keep us up to date Orcasystems and let us know if you get in contact with your sister.
Hope the Sister is up at her cabin for the weekend and not in town. Cabin has everything she needs to rough it.
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


Nobody should base their "facts" on cable news channels of any network


Or the internet for that matter.


What to trust... Hmm...
1045. guygee
I've been watching the weather loops and teaching myself how to play "Greensleeves" on my guitar. I bought my guitar at the Salvation Army for seven bucks, all I had to do is a little fixing. It is called an "Egmond", I never could find any information on it, but it is playable and has a good sound.

From watching the loops it looks like Sandy is setting up to transition into a giant crunchy Nor'easter with a chewy hurricane center.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hope the Sister is up at her cabin for the weekend and not in town. Cabin has everything she needs to rough it.


Hi there --- how far are you guys from the coast?
Quoting Orcasystems:


My sister lives about 40 miles from the center... no contact yet.


Orca, I was just coming by to thank you for the graphic showing how long it takes a Tsunami to travel when I saw this post.
Holding your sister in the Light and hoping you get good news soon.
1048. aerojad
https://twitter.com/KamilKaramali/status/2624103703 65399041

@KamilKaramali
If there is a #tsunami, it should have hit Langara island (first target) 10 minutes ago. #PrinceRupert coast guard not picking up his phone.
Quoting Tazmanian:



you got it mixs up it was 7.7 then they downgrade it too a 7.1


Incorrect, it was a 7.1 at first, upped to a 7.7.
Just got a basic text from Niece, everyone is safe and gone to higher ground, they are in Queen Charlotte City
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hope the Sister is up at her cabin for the weekend and not in town. Cabin has everything she needs to rough it.


Orca, I am praying for your sister as well as others..
latest on the #tsunami warning
Link
Quoting zoomiami:


Hi there --- how far are you guys from the coast?


Me?
like Sarah said.. I can see it from here :)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY HAS INCREASED DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DATA FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION AT 10000-12000 FT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM NEAR THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT. THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 960 MB.
1055. air360
From Kamil Karamali ‏@KamilKaramali

If there is a #tsunami, it should have hit Langara island (first target) 10 minutes ago. #PrinceRupert coast guard not picking up his phone.
906 AussieStorm:
How far away is Sandy from these Buoys?
The Battery, NY 1.11ft above normal.
:: 676miles(1088kilometres) , 30.9n74.3w-40.7012n74.0156w
Sandy Hook, NJ 1.37ft above normal :: 659miles(1060kilometres) , 30.9n74.3w-40.4529n73.9952w
Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 1.33ft above :: 559miles(900kilometres) , 30.9n74.3w-38.9864n75.1135w
Cape Hatteras, NC 0.87ft above normal. :: 306miles(493kilometres) , 30.9n74.3w-35.222n75.525w
according to the GreatCircleMapper
Quoting guygee:
I've been watching the weather loops and teaching myself how to play "Greensleeves" on my guitar. I bought my guitar at the Salvation Army for seven bucks, all I had to do is a little fixing. It is called an "Egmond", I never could find any information on it, but it is playable and has a good sound.


Sounds like you found a Dutch axe. ;)

Keep on pickin' and watchin' those loops mate.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Just got a basic text from Niece, everyone is safe and gone to higher ground, they are in Queen Charlotte City


So glad to hear it, Orca! =Whew!=
you can add the tusnami to any storm surge occuring at the time, if it arrives
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Incorrect, it was a 7.1 at first, upped to a 7.7.



oh ok normly they like downgradeing things has soon has they happen but I guss not this time
Quoting ILwthrfan:
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY HAS INCREASED DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DATA FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION AT 10000-12000 FT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM NEAR THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT. THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 960 MB.




old news been seens many of times
according to this model run...936mb...
105 mph winds across SW Connecticut, western Long Island and NYC...DEVASTATING!!!!!!



probably overdone
1063. centex
Pressure dropped not well.
Can anyone explain to me, if there are any bays on this coast, in which the tsunami could possibly build up?
Great news Orca!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
according to this model run...936mb...
105 mph winds across SW Connecticut, western Long Island and NYC...DEVASTATING!!!!!!



probably overdone


That is at the 900mb level, not the Surface...but its close enough to worry.
1067. air360
Sitka, Alaska 8:42 PM GMT-08 (5 minutes from now)
Tofino has activated Tsunami Warning system if in low lying area please proceed to the community hall ASAP #cbc #tsunami

Folks in LOW LYING PRINCE RUPERT homes -- Fire Chief urges you to head for CIVIC CENTRE now. Port evacuating terminals as precaution #CBC
Quoting Orcasystems:
Tofino has activated Tsunami Warning system if in low lying area please proceed to the community hall ASAP #cbc #tsunami

Folks in LOW LYING PRINCE RUPERT homes -- Fire Chief urges you to head for CIVIC CENTRE now. Port evacuating terminals as precaution #CBC


OMG!..
Sitka Webcam:

http://www.sitka.net/webcam/index.html
People in Port Alberni will be freaking by now

Port Alberni Tidal Wave 1964
Map of Storm Surge

These numbers have a 10% chance of being EXCEEDED.

Orca, good news, thanks for keeping us informed. 7.7 + Sandy, worst Halloween ever.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Incorrect, it was a 7.1 at first, upped to a 7.7.

just been a 5.2 aftershock
Quoting Orcasystems:
Tofino has activated Tsunami Warning system if in low lying area please proceed to the community hall ASAP #cbc #tsunami

Folks in LOW LYING PRINCE RUPERT homes -- Fire Chief urges you to head for CIVIC CENTRE now. Port evacuating terminals as precaution #CBC
It's night time now, so it will be hard to make out any tidal wave approaching. I hope people are getting to higher ground.
SMALL #TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED ON A DEEP OCEAN PRESSURE SENSOR. THE WARNING REGION REMAINS THE SAME IN THIS BULLETIN.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES. - IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS MAGNITUDE - 7.7 TIME - 1904 AKDT OCT 27 2012 2004 PDT OCT 27 2012 0304 UTC OCT 28 2012 LOCATION - 52.9 NORTH 131.9 WEST 25 MILES/40 KM S OF SANDSPIT BRITISH COLUMBIA 385 MILES/620 KM SE OF JUNEAU ALASKA DEPTH - 12 MILES/19 KM

TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS IMMINENT... EXPECTED OR OCURRING. WARNINGS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING ACCOMPANIED BY POWERFUL CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.
1076. centex
Our eyes on NE disaster?
1077. aerojad
Here are some potential tsunami wave heights: http://gdacs.org/show.aspx?xmlurl=http://tsunami.j rc.it/tsunamisurge/2012/10/2137/locations.xml&xslu rl=XSLT/locations.xslt&pname=mode|eventtype|limit& pvalue=list|TS|200
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It's night time now, so it will be hard to make out any tidal wave approaching. I hope people are getting to higher ground.


If your in Tofino and you want to get to higher ground.. you have to start moving soon. Its a 16 mile long flat beach area. 1 road in and out.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Map of Storm Surge

These numbers have a 10% chance of being EXCEEDED.

Orca, good news, thanks for keeping us informed. 7.7 + Sandy, worst Halloween ever.



Yes, going to be a lot of disappointed Trick-or-Treaters in New England this year. Hopefully all they lose is a little candy and party time.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Tofino has activated Tsunami Warning system if in low lying area please proceed to the community hall ASAP #cbc #tsunami

Folks in LOW LYING PRINCE RUPERT homes -- Fire Chief urges you to head for CIVIC CENTRE now. Port evacuating terminals as precaution #CBC
Tofino and the Wickaninnish Inn there is a very special place to my wife and I. Prayers to all.
Valdez, AK here. Any reports of a wave height?
What a night for North America...west coast Tsunami...east coast megastorm...
No sign of any Tsunami on Sitka webcam, which is located right on the water.


4.6 earthquake, 140km SSW of Masset, Canada. Oct 27 19:33 at epicenter (17m ago, depth 10km)
Quoting EastTexJake:



Yes, going to be a lot of disappointed Trick-or-Treaters in New England this year. Hopefully all they lose is a little candy and party time.
Here in Haverhill, we had Trick or Treat-ing tonight. I don't know how the rest of the state does it, though.
This earthquake can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the Magnitude and the affected population and their vulnerability.

Updated: this report is based on update number 5.

Earthquake magnitude 7.7M and depth 17.5km
on 28/10/2012 03:04 UTC
About 2000 people within 100km

Tsunami
The maximum Tsunami wave height is 1.7m in Pacofi, Canada. This height is estimated for 28 Oct 2012 04:52:00.
Quoting EastTexJake:



Yes, going to be a lot of disappointed Trick-or-Treaters in New England this year. Hopefully all they lose is a little candy and party time.


Last year most of the kids just walked around all the down trees and power lines and had Halloween anyway. I probably would do the same if I was a kid lol
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 4
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
948 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THE TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED WITH SMALL AMPLITUDES IN SE ALASKA.
FORECASTS INDICATE HEIGHTS IN S CENTRAL ALASKA BELOW 30CM.
THE WARNING AREA REMAINS THE SAME.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM
THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DAMAGE THE
WARNING REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE. PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL
EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY
RESPONSE AGENCIES.
- IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO
HIGHER GROUND.

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY

LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL
------------------------ ----- ------ ------- -----------
DART46419PT NW SEATTLE 48.8N 129.6W 0345UTC 00.2FT/00.07M
CRAIG AK 55.5N 133.1W 0425UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
PORT ALEXANDER AK 56.2N 134.6W 0410UTC 00.3FT/00.08M

TIME - TIME OF MEASUREMENT
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS/M/ AND FEET/FT/.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 7.7
TIME - 1904 AKDT OCT 27 2012
2004 PDT OCT 27 2012
0304 UTC OCT 28 2012
LOCATION - 52.9 NORTH 131.9 WEST
25 MILES/40 KM S OF SANDSPIT BRITISH COLUMBIA
385 MILES/620 KM SE OF JUNEAU ALASKA
DEPTH - 12 MILES/19 KM

TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
INUNDATION IS IMMINENT... EXPECTED OR OCURRING. WARNINGS INDICATE
THAT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING ACCOMPANIED BY POWERFUL
CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 30 MINUTES OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.

BCZ220-210-922-912-921-911-110-AKZ026>029-280548-
/O.CON.PAAQ.TS.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/
948 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

PEOPLE IN TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MOVE INLAND TO
HIGHER GROUND.

TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
INUNDATION IS IMMINENT... EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. TSUNAMIS ARE A
SERIES OF WAVES POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERAL HOURS AFTER INITIAL
ARRIVAL TIME.

ESTIMATED TIMES OF INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL FOR SELECTED
SITES IN THE WARNING ARE PROVIDED BELOW.

LANGARA 2116 PDT OCT 27 CRAIG 2110 AKDT OCT 27

FOR ARRIVAL TIMES AT ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS SEE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV
Quoting DoubleBranchGuy:
Tofino and the Wickaninnish Inn there is a very special place to my wife and I. Prayers to all.


I was there a couple weeks ago,, beautiful place :)
Quoting ILwthrfan:
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY HAS INCREASED DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DATA FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION AT 10000-12000 FT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM NEAR THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT. THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 960 MB.

I did briefly predict Sandy to strengthen a little by 11 PM for reasons cited...but I guess she quiet didn't do it...
1092. aerojad
https://twitter.com/KamilKaramali/status/2624170769 65240833

Tsunami ...."apparently" Sandspit got a 8 ft rise ...Rupert may get a 2-3 ft rise..low areas were evacuated

- - - - -

https://twitter.com/KamilKaramali/status/26241760 5967638529

UPDATE - Reports that water levels have raised 8 feet in the Queen Charlotte area. Still no reports of Tsunami in #PrinceRupert
Still not a single post on the Haida Gwaii facebook page since it happened.

Quoting Orcasystems:


I was there a couple weeks ago,, beautiful place :)
One of the most magnificent places I have ever been. I love that entire island.
1095. centex
Not reliable.
First post from QCC

"Power is on. Tsunami warning still in effect. Still having little tremors. Phone lines were down. It hit hard and was very scary but I don't see anything down anywhere."
Doesn't appear the Tsunami is very intense, so good news.
4.7 earthquake, 162km SSW of Masset, Canada. Oct 27 19:41 at epicenter (19m ago, depth 10km).
1100. hydrus
My local paper is reporting the 5.8 aftershock as the main quake. I knew they were bad but geez.

Tsunami warning after Canada quake
1104. centex
Focus guys
Someone tweeting from Haida Gwaii - very near the quake:
Frontier Farwest @epicflyfishing (19 min ago)

everyone in sandpit, Haida Gwaii has gone to the highest point called Hydro Hill, still no sign of any wave #earthquake #Tsunami


Also interesting, maybe...
Nisqually Pines @nisquallypines
RT @gislio: BC #earthquake managed to shake chandeliers on 21st floor in #Bellevue #WA


Some of the tsunami-warned areas are in SE Alaska.

Good night. Glad your family is safe, Orca.
Yikes and no evacuations in NYC. Last chance to get out on Sunday. #Sandy #Frankenstorm

Link
1107. ycd0108
hopefully these are "aftershocks":
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 4.7 2012/10/28 04:41:05 52.592 -132.670 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.6 2012/10/28 04:33:51 52.906 -133.120 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.1 2012/10/28 04:25:17 52.019 -133.370 10.1 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 3.1 2012/10/28 04:00:35 35.466 -96.581 4.9 OKLAHOMA
MAP 4.8 2012/10/28 03:52:25 52.199 -131.986 10.9 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.8 2012/10/28 03:14:10 52.629 -132.243 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.1 2012/10/28 03:08:54 10.484 92.735 64.5 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 7.7 2012/10/28 03:04:11 52.769 -131.927 17.5 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.3
Quoting centex:
Focus guys


I lost my glasses, so that's pretty hard to do right now.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
according to this model run...936mb...
105 mph winds across SW Connecticut, western Long Island and NYC...DEVASTATING!!!!!!



probably overdone


You're not reading that right. That would be the potential max gust in a downdraft, it is not ground level readings.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 28 2012
=======================================

The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood now lies as a well marked low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. The system may concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.

A low pressure area may develop over southeast Arabian Sea around 30th October.
1111. centex
Quoting Slamguitar:


I lost my glasses, so that's pretty hard to do right now.
understand, many have that problem.
Tsunami warning extended to include the rest of Vancouver Island, not just from the island northwards #cbc
29 cm Wave at Langara island...
Thats pretty small
1114. BruceK
Big eathquake, hope all are safe, including my Uncle Bob, on Orcas Island in the San Juan's.
Quoting Orcasystems:
29 cm Wave at Langara island...
Thats pretty small


Hey, Orca. Stocked up on Chris Bros. pepperoni in anticipation of Sandy.
1116. ABlass
Quoting Orcasystems:
Just got a basic text from Niece, everyone is safe and gone to higher ground, they are in Queen Charlotte City

Thanks Orca for posting that.
So glad they are OK
Take care All
Anyone else having problems with the SSD site? It's been giving me trouble for hours.
1118. emguy
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
according to this model run...936mb...
105 mph winds across SW Connecticut, western Long Island and NYC...DEVASTATING!!!!!!



probably overdone


It looks a bit overbaked as far as pressure. Wind wise...also somewhat overcooked even though those winds are for the 900mb level...

One thing to keep in mind though, with a pressure of 936, that would be closer to the surface either way...and there are a lot of structures in NYC that reach very, very high in the air including the tallest one which is under construction. I hope there is not a lot of loose items up there...especially considering the top of the building is currently open to elements.
1119. BruceK
A new Tsunami warning has gone out to Hawaii:
LINK
This is the warning: EVALUATION

A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

Quoting bluenosedave:


Hey, Orca. Stocked up on Chris Bros. pepperoni in anticipation of Sandy.


OK, that was just mean.
0z CMC Ensembles







1122. ladykat
CNN covering evacuation of Hawaii
Quoting Slamguitar:
Anyone else having problems with the SSD site? It's been giving me trouble for hours.


It's just you, I'm afraid.
#CBC: 44 cm swell recorded on Langara Island
Quoting ladykat:
CNN covering evacuation of Hawaii


As they always do...
1126. emguy
Moisture is slowly returning to the east and southeast side of sandy...but may be degrading a bit at the mid levels on the eastern periphery.

Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, that was just mean.


What can I say? The TNT was on sale at half-price Thursday. Mmmmm. And it looks like we'll get lucky with Sandy here in SW Nova Scotia, just a long week of rain with some wind on Tuesday. I hope your tsunami alert doesn't amount to much.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's just you, I'm afraid.


Every other NOAA side is working just fine, but I can't load anything from SSD.

At least I still have WU satellite page.

From Facebook

"most everyone in skidegate are up in the heights area"
1130. bwat
Quoting emguy:
Moisture is slowly returning to the east and southeast side of sandy...but may be degrading a bit at the mid levels on the eastern periphery.

The days of Sandy regaining strength off tropical properties is gone. She WILL strengthen, but it will be from baroclinic process. Sorry to chime in, just had to add my two cents.
Quoting bluenosedave:


What can I say? The TNT was on sale at half-price Thursday. Mmmmm. And it looks like we'll get lucky with Sandy here in SW Nova Scotia, just a long week of rain with some wind on Tuesday. I hope your tsunami alert doesn't amount to much.


You are a bad bad person.
I sure hope you get "lucky" with Sandy after that post
1132. bwat
Quoting Slamguitar:


Every other NOAA side is working just fine, but I can't load anything from SSD.

At least I still have WU satellite page.

It has happened to me before, clear your cache and I bet you will be good.
Tsunami advisory for Juan de Fuca Strait from Jordan River to Greater Victoria, including the Saanich Peninsula #cbc

Frack
Sandy:

Global BC
14 minutes ago

Members of the Kitkatla Nation in Prince Rupert have been told to get to higher ground as a tsunami could be heading their way. They are also telling us the water level at Prince Rupert has dropped three feet.
Quoting Civicane49:
Tsunami Warning for Hawaii.


Are you gonna be okay?
1138. bwat
Quoting Orcasystems:
Global BC
14 minutes ago

Members of the Kitkatla Nation in Prince Rupert have been told to get to higher ground as a tsunami could be heading their way. They are also telling us the water level at Prince Rupert has dropped three feet.
Well it sounds like Kitkatla Nation has more sense than mayor Bloomberg......oh zinger..... ;)
Quoting bwat:
It has happened to me before, clear your cache and I bet you will be good.


First thought I had, but it didn't work. :/
Quoting KoritheMan:


Are you gonna be okay?


I'll be fine. I'm away from the shoreline. The wave is expected to be around 3 feet from initial reports. It is scheduled to arrive at around 10:30 pm HST.

Thanks for your concern.
1141. bwat
Quoting Slamguitar:


First thought I had, but it didn't work. :/
Worth a shot.... definitely sounds like a localized problem since no one else has had the issue.
Quoting bwat:
Worth a shot.... definitely sounds like a localized problem since no one else has had the issue.


Ya, I guess I'll wait on it.
Quoting Civicane49:
Tsunami Warning for Hawaii.


what day this is...
just heard they had a 7.7 earthquake! thats crazy
CNN reporting tsunami sirens going off in Hawaii, peope are evacuating to higher places. Expected to hit in an hour or so.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
CNN reporting tsunami sirens going off in Hawaii, peope are evacuating to higher places. Expected to hit in an hour or so.
Wow it should be there in two hours thats not long at all
warnings now include northern california and oregon
Quoting bigwes6844:
warnings now include northern california and oregon


advisories..not warnings
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


advisories..not warnings
correct sorry! advisories
1151. ycd0108
More "aftershocks":
5.0 2012/10/28 06:16:53 52.268 -131.212 11.5 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.5 2012/10/28 05:51:17 52.815 -132.714 10.3 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.2 2012/10/28 05:47:09 52.429 -131.451 10.1 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.1 2012/10/28 05:38:38 51.786 -132.312 10.1 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.3 2012/10/28 05:21:37 52.139 -131.571 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.3 2012/10/28 05:15:13 52.499 -132.222 10.1 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.5 2012/10/28 05:02:50 52.409 -132.165 10.3 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.3 2012/10/28 04:54:46 52.403 -132.439 10.1 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.7 2012/10/28 04:41:05 52.592 -132.670 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 4.6 2012/10/28 04:33:51 52.906 -133.120 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.1 2012/10/28 04:25:17 52.019 -133.370 10.1 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 3.1 2012/10/28 04:00:35 35.466 -96.581 4.9 OKLAHOMA
MAP 4.8 2012/10/28 03:52:25 52.199 -131.986 10.9 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.8 2012/10/28 03:14:10 52.629 -132.243 10.0 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
MAP 5.1 2012/10/28 03:08:54 10.484 92.735 64.5 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 7.7 2012/10/28 03:04:11 52.769 -131.927 17.5
Cant believe i will be witnessing history with Sandy. everybody in the storms path please be ready! Dont let this storm fool you because it is a 75 mph. i went threw Isaac and can tell u that i was caught off guard by the low end cat 2 it was but this is gonna be very bad because the north east is not like the Gulf states which can handle hurricanes. So please one more time BE READY AND PREPARE AND PRAY FOR THE BEST!
Duck, NC just recently reported a 56mph wind gust:



Also Virginia Beach VA:

A 48 mph gust recently. Both of these sites are well removed from the center of Sandy...



Tsunami Note

[Update 2:48 a.m.] Residents in Hawaii are taking the authorities' urging seriously - and making preparations accordingly:

Wow I compliment those over in Hawaii. You don't hear them going, "What Tsunami? blah blah all Hype!"

NOW if only we could get people to take Sandy seriously!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 28 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (970 hPa) located at 19.2N 107.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.0N 106.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
1158. LRC
@ycd0108 Am listening right now to reports about earthquake. FYI proper name is Haida Gwaii (name change made a few years ago but most of the world seems to not know it).
Damage almost nil with only very small tsunami.Reason for this is that it was off shore and it was a side slip earthquake as apposed to vertical slip (those are the ones that really cause a lot of damage).


tropical disturbance near Sri Lanka and southeastern India.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Tsunami Note

[Update 2:48 a.m.] Residents in Hawaii are taking the authorities' urging seriously - and making preparations accordingly:

Wow I compliment those over in Hawaii. You don't hear them going, "What Tsunami? blah blah all Hype!"

NOW if only we could get people to take Sandy seriously!

My 6pm news just now said 2mtr waves are headed towards Hawaii.

Ocean City Inlet, MD tide now 2.2ft above normal. and this is coming off low tide.
Quoting AussieStorm:

My 6pm news just now said 2mtr waves are headed towards Hawaii.

Ocean City Inlet, MD tide now 2.2ft above normal. and this is coming off low tide.


Yeah, have a feeling we're gonna be seeing ocean levels rise well in advance of this...especially when it starts it's turn towards the coast.
WEAK51 PAAQ 280502
TSUAK1

BULLETIN
PUBLIC TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 5
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1002 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THE WARNING ZONES REMAIN THE SAME IN THIS MESSAGE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA-
SOUTH OF THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.

...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...

...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE
WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
CALIFORNIA - OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM THE
CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA
BORDER...

...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...

A TSUNAMI WARNING MEANS... ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING
AREA WHO ARE NEAR THE BEACH OR IN LOW-LYING REGIONS SHOULD MOVE
IMMEDIATELY INLAND TO HIGHER GROUND AND AWAY FROM ALL HARBORS AND
INLETS INCLUDING THOSE SHELTERED DIRECTLY FROM THE SEA. THOSE
FEELING THE EARTH SHAKE... SEEING UNUSUAL WAVE ACTION... OR THE
WATER LEVEL RISING OR RECEDING MAY HAVE ONLY A FEW MINUTES BEFORE
THE TSUNAMI ARRIVAL AND SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY. HOMES AND
SMALL BUILDINGS ARE NOT DESIGNED TO WITHSTAND TSUNAMI IMPACTS.
DO NOT STAY IN THESE STRUCTURES.

ALL RESIDENTS WITHIN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
INSTRUCTIONS BROADCAST FROM THEIR LOCAL CIVIL AUTHORITIES.
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED.

A TSUNAMI ADVISORY MEANS THAT A TSUNAMI CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG CURRENTS OR WAVES DANGEROUS TO PEOPLE IN OR VERY NEAR
THE WATER IS EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION
IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AREAS UNDER AN ADVISORY. CURRENTS
MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SWIMMERS... BOATS... AND COASTAL
STRUCTURES AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.

AT 804 PM PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME ON OCTOBER 27 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH
PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 7.7 OCCURRED 25 MILES/40 KM SOUTH OF
SANDSPIT BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THIS EARTHQUAKE HAS GENERATED A TSUNAMI WHICH COULD CAUSE DAMAGE
TO REGIONS IN A WARNING OR ADVISORY.
THE WAVES WILL FIRST REACH
LANGARA ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 916 PM PDT ON OCTOBER 27.
ESTIMATED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES AND MAPS ALONG WITH SAFETY RULES
AND OTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB SITE
WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY

LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL
------------------------ ----- ------ ------- -----------
DART46419PT NW SEATTLE 48.8N 129.6W 0345UTC 00.2FT/00.07M
CRAIG AK 55.5N 133.1W 0425UTC 00.3FT/00.09M
PORT ALEXANDER AK 56.2N 134.6W 0410UTC 00.3FT/00.08M
WINTER HARBOUR BC 50.7N 128.3W 0402UTC 00.5FT/00.15M

TIME - TIME OF MEASUREMENT
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ARE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS/M/ AND FEET/FT/.

TSUNAMIS CAN BE DANGEROUS WAVES THAT ARE NOT SURVIVABLE. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE AMPLIFIED BY IRREGULAR SHORELINE AND ARE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. TSUNAMIS OFTEN APPEAR AS A STRONG SURGE AND MAY BE
PRECEDED BY A RECEDING WATER LEVEL. MARINERS IN WATER DEEPER
THAN 600 FEET SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY A TSUNAMI. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WATER SHALLOWS. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF
OCEAN WAVES WHICH CAN BE DANGEROUS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE
INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL. DO NOT RETURN TO EVACUATED AREAS UNTIL AN
ALL CLEAR IS GIVEN BY LOCAL CIVIL AUTHORITIES.

PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 30 MINUTES OR SOONER IF
THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO STATIONS... OR SEE
THE WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Tsunami Note

[Update 2:48 a.m.] Residents in Hawaii are taking the authorities' urging seriously - and making preparations accordingly:

Wow I compliment those over in Hawaii. You don't hear them going, "What Tsunami? blah blah all Hype!"

NOW if only we could get people to take Sandy seriously!


They don't mess around with that stuff. There was a tsunami back in the day that killed a lot of people in HI...
Quoting LRC:
@ycd0108 Am listening right now to reports about earthquake. FYI proper name is Haida Gwaii (name change made a few years ago but most of the world seems to not know it).
Damage almost nil with only very small tsunami.Reason for this is that it was off shore and it was a side slip earthquake as apposed to vertical slip (those are the ones that really cause a lot of damage).


Source? Type of this earthquake, not name change.
1165. ycd0108
1158 LRC:
My "Best Man" lives in Massett and I have been there but thank you for clearing that up.
At the risk of going to jail in Italy I'm going out on a limb here and saying that: If there is no stronger 'quake in the region there will be no tsunami damage.
anybody wanna watch coverage of the tsunami warnings in hawaii. http://www.kitv.com/
Hi all!
Anyone know of any news affiliates that are streaming over the internet for Sandy (ie, local stations, etc)?
Quoting bigwes6844:
anybody wanna watch coverage of the tsunami warnings in hawaii. http://www.kitv.com/


Thanks, BigWes
Quoting NOLA2005:


Thanks, BigWes
u welcome! live coverage too
1171. vanwx
Nice night tonight in NYC with the Queen Mary 2 just pulling in with 15 knots of wind on her tail.
BTW guys, this station is 334 miles from the center of Sandy. That should send a pretty strong message...



Highest gust so far here was 58mph, but lots of 50's in there...
1173. LargoFl
Good Morning folks..going to have a couple of nice days here
1174. LargoFl
1175. LRC
Quoting NOLA2005:


Source? Type of this earthquake, not name change.

Sorry am talking about location. Queen Charlotte is no longer the correct name although they are still commonly called that.
1176. emguy
Quoting vanwx:
Nice night tonight in NYC with the Queen Mary 2 just pulling in with 15 knots of wind on her tail.


Considering the weather...I would not be surprised if Queen Mary 2 does not stay around for long...heads back out to sea.

Mean time, this is a hybrid under baroclynic and extratropical influence...but this storm looks like she'd really like to have her eyewall back...if she could.

Quoting chicagowatcher:
Hi all!
Anyone know of any news affiliates that are streaming over the internet for Sandy (ie, local stations, etc)?
http://www.wric.com/
45 mins left until the first waves of tsunamis in hawaii. traffic is horrible! island of maui shutting down sewer and water
1179. LRC
As far as Sandy is concerned I could be having an interesting week next week. I live in southern Ontario. Got the cold front coming through right now joining up with Sandy possibly by Monday and if things go really bad get energy from the cyclone going on in the Hudson bay (although that would be a stretch as that is a long way away (Ontario is BIG)
Sandy:

I found a live cam of a beach on Maui at Paia Bay.

Link
Quoting LRC:

Sorry am talking about location. Queen Charlotte is no longer the correct name although they are still commonly called that.


I understood that, as I said. I am asking about your source for the type of earthquake, side slip shift vs. vertical strike.
reports of break ins in hawaii where people had to evacuate. and fights going on at gas stations. Just very sad during a trying time for these people
Tsunami should arrive at Hawaii about half an hour away.
Ike at landfall:

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES
...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
GALVESTON ISLAND.

Sandy now:


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES
...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45 MPH...73 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H.

There's literally no comparison.
30 mins left in hawaii
Link

Hawaii live beach cams
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneSandy @ 28Oct.6am
Appears to be starting its predicted northward turn
ECG-ElizabethCity :: HNC-CapeHatteras

The southernmost dot on the longest line is H.Sandy's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline
27Oct.06am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 102miles(165kilometres)ESEast of CapeHatteras (right,HNCdumbell,outside)
27Oct.12pm: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 100miles(162kilometres)ESEast of CapeHatteras
(right,HNCdumbell,inside)
27Oct.06pm: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 244miles(393kilometres)SEast of CapeHatteras (bottom,left half of straightline endpoint blob)
28Oct.12am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage 274miles(441kilometres)SEast of CapeHatteras
(unlabled,unconnected dot beneath the straightline)
27Oct.06am: H.Sandy had been heading for passage 247miles(397kilometres)SEast of CapeHatteras (top,right half of straightline endpoint blob)

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SURGE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION DID NOT
FIND WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY.
HOWEVER...EARLIER DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THAT WINDS TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WERE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...BEYOND THE RADIAL LEGS COVERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT. ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE GENEROUS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA LATER TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF SANDY. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL
SOME SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL FOR SANDY TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM
TODAY. IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COLDER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS HAS LITTLE OR NO BEARING ON THE OVERALL
IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW RAPID
WEAKENING.

THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS REMAINED
NEARLY THE SAME...OR 040/12. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS SANDY INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE
U.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD. AFTERWARDS...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE 0000 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 31.9N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 33.2N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.2N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 39.5N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
Tsunami is arriving now, they're saying on CNN.
First wave won't be the biggest. Water is definitely coming up higher on the beach on the Paia Bay cam.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Tsunami is arriving now, they're saying on CNN.
First wave won't be the biggest. Water is definitely coming up higher on the beach on the Paia Bay cam.


I'm way past my bed time, lol.
The tide is slowly rising, which means that the tsunami is arriving in Hawaii. The small tsunami waves would last up to several hours.
Oo! And now the water has receded markedly.
They say the water line recedes just before a tsunami IIRC.
Hurricane Sandy:

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Oo! And now the water has receded markedly.


It's kinda going through phases.
Mornin' everyone!
Yeah, it's up higher than I've seen before now.
I'm up way too late too. Been nodding out watching this cam for the last hour, getting a feel of how it should look so I'd recognize when it receded. I wish people would leave the cam alone. We need the tree at the right as reference, but people keep zooming in on the water, which tells you nothing. I keep yelling at them. haha
Wouldn't the IKE Scale be more useful when describing Sandy?
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
I'm up way too late too. Been nodding out watching this cam for the last hour, getting a feel of how it should look so I'd recognize when it receded. I wish people would leave the cam alone. We need the tree at the right as reference, but people keep zooming in on the water, which tells you nothing. I keep yelling at them. haha


I keep yelling "stop!". Glad I'm not alone, haha. I agree completely with the tree.
Ok. They're saying the first two waves have come in, which must be what we saw. They're waiting for the third wave, which may be the largest and then they'll decide whether to downgrade the warning or not.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
I'm up way too late too. Been nodding out watching this cam for the last hour, getting a feel of how it should look so I'd recognize when it receded. I wish people would leave the cam alone. We need the tree at the right as reference, but people keep zooming in on the water, which tells you nothing. I keep yelling at them. haha


Totally agree, they need to be b-slapped if they don't leave that camera alone! ;)
I don't think you're going to get anything really spectacular out of that. At least I hope not.

One of the more ridiculous tsunamis after the Japan Earthquake was 100+ feet, judging by hillsides boats were stranded on.

They're looking for 3-7 here. The lower number I'm not even sure if it would defeat a sea wall.
njdevil2,
putting it like that, I hope your're right and nothing spectacular results from this.
Hurricane Sandy:

1211. kabloie
On top of Sandy, that tsunami is the real deal.

Hilo Bay Conditions

From just a couple samples, the amplitude of first wave looks to be be at least 3 feet. So at least on the low end of the predict.
Third wave was about the same as the first two. They said the 2nd was 23". Not disasterous. :)
They'll wait another hour for another few cycles before downgrading the warning.
Ok, third wave was 30". Biggest so far. Here comes the fourth.
well, thanks for the warm greeting.. y'all have a nice day, I am off to work.
Quoting NOLA2005:
njdevil2,
putting it like that, I hope your're right and nothing spectacular results from this.

And it seems it didn't...good thing!
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY...5 TO 10 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY...3 TO 5 FT

wow...the water must squeeze to move into LI Sound
1217. 900MB
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY...5 TO 10 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY...3 TO 5 FT

wow...the water must squeeze to move into LI Sound

The graphic given by NHC now showing 9'-11' surge in NY Harbor and Western Long Island Sound. If that pans out, we are in big trouble. In NYC we had 4' surge w Irene, I can't imagine double or more!
If you looking for a great resource for info on tides, winds, barometric pressures. The Center for Operational Oceanographic Products & Services (CO-OPS)/ National Ocean Service (NOS) /
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have a great page here.

Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA
now 2.5ft above normal.
5 am advisory windspeeds.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 31.9N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 33.2N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.2N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 39.5N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Given that there's a recent modest resurgence of convection at Sandy's center, and that it will soon be travelling into warmer SSTs, there must be a chance, it'll ramp up past 80 mph.
Quoting indianrivguy:
well, thanks for the warm greeting.. y'all have a nice day, I am off to work.

Hey Mate!
Was busy having dinner. Have a good day also.
Geez... busy morning.

Quoting yonzabam:
5 am advisory windspeeds.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 31.9N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 33.2N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.2N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 39.5N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Given that there's a recent modest resurgence of convection at Sandy's center, and that it will soon be travelling into warmer SSTs, there must be a chance, it'll ramp up past 80 mph.


HRD/AOML/NOAA ‏@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 passed through center of #Sandy tracking to a point 120 nm N of center. Radar shows very strong N eyewall.
1223. LargoFl
NAEFS model at 36 hours
1224. LargoFl
GFS at 36 hours..cant be much doubt now
Morning! Looking for some hind.sight theories from any of you weather people.
I am on Long Island, Bahamas. The front side of Sandy was our worst wind...Easterly winds that felt about 100 but may have only been 80. On the Western side of the island, all of the water seemed to have been blown or sucked out so that boats lay on their side in what would have been 12 feet of water. It looked like the pictures you see just before a tidal wave. As the eye passes and high tide approached, the water came back without a storm surge that we all feared. My questions...
Could this be caused by the path the hurricane took? North, alongside the island as opposed to crossing the island.
Could this have happened if the tide times had been different?
Might it be because the track was on the Exuma Sound side rather than the Atlantic?
Anyone want to hazard guesses?
Thanks
1226. LargoFl
Nam model at 36 hours
She doesn't really fit in her floater box at this point, lol:

1229. LargoFl
DC getting hit with a Bad squall line huh...........
1230. breald
Morning all~ It looks like we have duel events happening on both coast. I hope the folks in Hawaii, British Columbia and the east coast stay safe.

1231. LargoFl
guys any chance at all now that this hits the delmar and whacks DC directly?
Seems about the only thing that's missing so far this morning is a volcanic eruption.

Best of luck to those in nature's path.
Quoting 900MB:

The graphic given by NHC now showing 9'-11' surge in NY Harbor and Western Long Island Sound. If that pans out, we are in big trouble. In NYC we had 4' surge w Irene, I can't imagine double or more!


Here's a link to that graphic. Apparently, NYC is indeed predicted to experience a 9-11 foot storm surge. That's the highest surge predicted for anywhere from Sandy. It'll be historic, all right.

Link
1234. breald
Quoting Cotillion:
Seems about the only thing that's missing so far this morning is a volcanic eruption.

Best of luck to those in nature's path.


Too true...sigh

1235. breald
Breaking news...there is a high wind warning for NY. That is what I just heard from TWC. News flash - The whole upper east coast is under a high wind warning.
1236. LargoFl
remember, nyc gets a 9-11 foot storm surge, along with hurricane force winds that will be blowing the water on top of the surge amount..well they have time to prepare....
What a mess:

1238. 900MB
Ay yi yi!
Don't forget our friends in Vietnam as they are going through a serious event this morning as well:

1240. LargoFl
MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MINOR FLOODING.

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO A POSITION OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND
MOVING TOWARD THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL THEN
TRACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

DAMAGING WINDS: A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES.

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE STORM. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. RISES ON RIVERS FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR MINOR FLOODING AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC WILL
RANGE BETWEEN ONE TO THREE FEET.

MARINE AREAS...A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. TODAY WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS...OF
50 KNOTS OR MORE...WILL DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY TO BELOW GALE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT IS MORE LIKELY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

$$
Michael G. Phelps @michaelgphelps
DRAMATIC live stream of transformers blowing at Nags Head, NC at http://stormscapelive.tv/ .



Link
Quoting yonzabam:


Here's a link to that graphic. Apparently, NYC is indeed predicted to experience a 9-11 foot storm surge. That's the highest surge predicted for anywhere from Sandy. It'll be historic, all right.

Link


You're reading it wrong. At the top, it gives a changeable option of 'Chance of being exceeded', so shows a 10% chance that NYC's surge will top 9'-11'. When you increase it up to 50%, it falls to 3'-5'.
1243. LargoFl
Mayor of NYC will make a decision at 6pm on evacuations
Quoting LargoFl:
Mayor of NYC will make a decision at 6pm on evacuations


Far too late if they become necessary.
1245. LargoFl
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Far too late if they become necessary.
yes i said that yesterday and people called it hype, they close the bridges etc when theres tropical storm force winds..those will get there WAY before the actual hurricane..not too many ways to get out of NYC without the bridges
1246. 900MB
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


You're reading it wrong. At the top, it gives a changeable option of 'Chance of being exceeded', so shows a 10% chance that NYC's surge will top 9'-11'. When you increase it up to 50%, it falls to 3'-5'.


Not trying to misinform or hype. When I clicked on NHC site, the 10% chance of being exceeded map came up as the default, which is the same for their national map. NHC advisory from 5 am states that Long Island Sound and Raritan Bay will have surge of 5 to 10 feet.

Kinda scary that there would be a 10% chance that NYC gets a higher #.
1247. LargoFl
Hurricane Sandy is poised to become an “unprecedented” superstorm that could leave millions of people in the Northeast without power for days or even weeks, experts said Saturday.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news#ixzz2AacfAOxx
Quoting 900MB:


Not trying to misinform or hype. When I clicked on NHC site, the 10% chance of being exceeded map came up as the default, which is the same for their national map. NHC advisory from 5 am states that Long Island Sound and Raritan Bay will have surge of 5 to 10 feet.

Kinda scary that there would be a 10% chance that NYC gets a higher #.


No, I know, and I agree that even a 10% chance of the surge being higher than that is worrying.
I hope no big waves hit Hawaii......... I hope the Tsunami is uneventful
1250. 900MB
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


No, I know, and I agree that even a 10% chance of the surge being higher than that is worrying.


What worries me the most was Bloomberg's non-chalant attitude last night! 'This is not going to be a tropical storm like or hurricane like surge'. Really? it only has the potential to be the worst surge we have seen in ages!

It is kind of unbelievable how this storm continues to default to the worst case scenario for NYC.
Morning all. Seems a rain shield has made it north in the night. Some sprinkles up on the Piedmont in Maryland, but a lot of rain bay east. That will fill in during the day.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


You're reading it wrong. At the top, it gives a changeable option of 'Chance of being exceeded', so shows a 10% chance that NYC's surge will top 9'-11'. When you increase it up to 50%, it falls to 3'-5'.


Well, that's a pretty strange way for the NHC to give out predictions. Here's another, even odder storm surge graphic they have. It gives the probability that surge will exceed 2 feet in any given area.

For NYC, the probability is 70-80%. In other words, there's a 25% chance that the surge in NYC will be less than 2 feet!

This information borders on the useless. Basically, what they're saying is that they haven't clue what Sandy's going to do.

Link
1253. 900MB
Anyone have a good graphic for the Gulf Stream? Sandy is getting closer to it, as per NHC, just trying to figure out how much time it will spend over it.

We do have a double whammy coming up here- Gulf Stream then followed by barocyclonic enhancement. Speaking of the 10% scenario, there is still an 11% chance that this comes in stronger than Cat 1.
1254. LargoFl
Quoting 900MB:


What worries me the most was Bloomberg's non-chalant attitude last night! 'This is not going to be a tropical storm like or hurricane like surge'. Really? it only has the potential to be the worst surge we have seen in ages!

It is kind of unbelievable how this storm continues to default to the worst case scenario for NYC.
well one thing is for sure..some very nasty weather is coming and people there should be taking it upon themselves to prepare and if they live in a dangerous flood area etc, dont wait for an official to tell them to get out..by tomorrow morning NWS should pretty much know what area the storm will hit..im still worried about DC where my daughter is..
1255. LargoFl
Quoting 900MB:
Anyone have a good graphic for the Gulf Stream? Sandy is getting closer to it, as per NHC, just trying to figure out how much time it will spend over it.

We do have a double whammy coming up here- Gulf Stream then followed by barocyclonic enhancement. Speaking of the 10% scenario, there is still an 11% chance that this comes in stronger than Cat 1.
last i saw the gulf stream goes all the way up to NC
Quoting 900MB:
Anyone have a good graphic for the Gulf Stream? Sandy is getting closer to it, as per NHC, just trying to figure out how much time it will spend over it.

We do have a double whammy coming up here- Gulf Stream then followed by barocyclonic enhancement. Speaking of the 10% scenario, there is still an 11% chance that this comes in stronger than Cat 1.



Quoting yonzabam:


Well, that's a pretty strange way for the NHC to give out predictions. Here's another, even odder storm surge graphic they have. It gives the probability that surge will exceed 2 feet in any given area.

For NYC, the probability is 70-80%. In other words, there's a 25% chance that the surge in NYC will be less than 2 feet!

This information borders on the useless. Basically, what they're saying is that they haven't clue what Sandy's going to do.

Link


I agree. It shows a lack of leadership/guidance, and is something of a get-out clause whatever happens, as the can point to the probabilities that they gave out. Of course nothing is guaranteed, but this situation leaves a lot of people not knowing what to expect.
Here's an interactive map for NY NY (and any other US city for that matter) from the Climate Central blog Dr. Masters mentioned in his blog.
.LinkClimateCentral NYNY
It tabulates for you the # of people and structures under a certain elevation and uses Google map.
For example:

Things below 2ft in New York, New York
Population 104,597 (1.3%)
Homes 45,671 (1.4%)
Acres 7,357 (4.0%)

Things below 4ft in New York, New York
Population 181,682 2.2%
Homes 78,579 2.3%
Acres 11,316 6.1%

1259. LargoFl
this from my local mets future cast
Quoting 900MB:
Anyone have a good graphic for the Gulf Stream? Sandy is getting closer to it, as per NHC, just trying to figure out how much time it will spend over it.

We do have a double whammy coming up here- Gulf Stream then followed by barocyclonic enhancement. Speaking of the 10% scenario, there is still an 11% chance that this comes in stronger than Cat 1.






1261. LargoFl
1262. LargoFl
1263. 900MB
Quoting AussieStorm:







Thanks, great graphics! Doesn't make me feel any better though.
Has she merged with the trough yet?
1265. LargoFl
1266. LargoFl
to the folks who remember Irene..sandy's windfield is double the size and still growing..this is amazing
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Has she merged with the trough yet?


They've only just met. These things take time. Once they get better acquainted, nature will take its course.
Here's something:

Things below +4ft in Atlantic City, New Jersey

Population 17,935 (45.3%)
Homes 9,151 (45.7%)
Acres 1,554 (51.8%)
1269. LargoFl
TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC INTO MONDAY...BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY TOWARDS THE
COAST...AND MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE MONDAY
EVENING.

THIS POWERFUL STORM WILL LIKELY HAVE ITS GREATEST IMPACTS ON
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA FROM LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH WINDS WILL DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED...WITH URBAN FLOODING PROBABLE. MAIN STEM RIVERS
COULD SEE LEVELS RISE INTO THE MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD RANGES BY
MID-WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BINGHAMTON...AS WELL AS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Has she merged with the trough yet?


Link click on fronts
1271. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:
Here's something:

Things below +4ft in Atlantic City, New Jersey

Population 17,935 (45.3%)
Homes 9,151 (45.7%)
Acres 1,554 (51.8%)
im sure they will evacuate down there..its low lying
1272. LargoFl

Virginia, MD and DE are all represented in the Delmarva Peninsula.
bbl
956mb (28.23 inHg) - from NOAA Dropsonde
Quoting Chicklit:

Virginia, MD and DE are all represented in the Delmarva Peninsula.
bbl
Hence the name... ;-)
It appears Highway 12 is now closed Outer Banks. Not shocking, but this early is impresive
1277. Patrick
We just had a pretty strong band come through New Bern, NC. Below is link to my site for current winds/weather on the Neuse River.
www.neuseweather.com
This is from the latest NOAA vortex message:

L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)

Pressure was reported at 956mb.
957.4 mb
(~ 28.27 inHg)

From Air Force
Quoting Chicklit:


Link click on fronts
It looks like so, yet she's still tropical. Weird. How many advisories do you give Sandy till she's extra tropical?
Whilst Sandy's pressure has fallen/is falling, so far neither recon plane has found any winds supporting Sandy still being at hurricane strength. Might see a downgrade.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Whilst Sandy's pressure has fallen/is falling, so far neither recon plane has found any winds supporting Sandy still being at hurricane strength. Might see a downgrade.

If so, Sandy will be recorded as one of the strongest storms at tropical storm strength in terms of pressure.
1283. 900MB
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is from the latest NOAA vortex message:

L. Eye Character: Open in the northeast
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)

Pressure was reported at 956mb.

That's pretty darn low! It will be interesting to see what Dr. Jeff has to say about the surge numbers.
AF plane:

951.0 mb
(~ 28.08 inHg)
1285. ncstorm
what in the world is going on..I went to be bed and wake up to hurricanes..earthquakes and now TSUNAMIs!!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AF plane:

951.0 mb
(~ 28.08 inHg)

That's really low. There's no way this is gonna get downgraded to a tropical storm. It is probably still a hurricane.
1287. ncstorm
Henry Margusity Fan Club
Sandy is at 960 mb and pressure has to fall 10 mb the next 24 hours. The capture into the trough is about to occur.
1288. LargoFl
The computer models forecasting the track of Hurricane Sandy over the next three days are converging upon a landing around southern New Jersey that could create record coastal flooding and a big enough storm surge that state and local officials have ordered mandatory and voluntary evacuations along the coast from Delaware to Connecticut.
Quoting ncstorm:
Henry Margusity Fan Club
Sandy is at 960 mb and pressure has to fall 10 mb the next 24 hours. The capture into the trough is about to occur.


Um... recon just found 951 so it already has fell 9 MB
A question for all the resident experts:
My grandfather has apartments in both NYC and Philadelphia, but he's in NYC this weekend. I told him that, while neither is going to be a very nice place to be in this storm, I'd much rather be in Philly if I were him. He agrees, but isn't planning to leave New York until tomorrow, which seems like a rather bad idea.
Do we have a good sense of how quickly conditions will deteriorate tomorrow? How strong will winds and rain be in that area during the earlier part of the day?
Good Morning. I see Sandy hasn't really changed much this morning.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AF plane:

951.0 mb
(~ 28.08 inHg)

This is getting ridiculous.
1292. LargoFl
As of 10/28/2012 06:00 EDT, water levels from northern Florida to Delaware are elevated. Water level residuals along northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina are oscillating with the tide and at present are 0.5 to 1.0 feet above tidal predictions. However, water level residuals have reached 2 to 3 feet at many of these locations over the past 6 to 12 hours. Water levels from North Carolina to Delaware, including southern Chesapeake Bay are rising and range from 0.7 to 2.6 feet above tidal predictions. Much of this area will experience high tide over the next few hours.

Winds along the South Carolina coast range from 10 to 20 knots with some gusts up to 25 knots. Wind speeds from North Carolina to the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA are rising and range from 20 to 40 knots with some gusts to 50 knots along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Winds along the Atlantic coast from Wachapreague, VA to Lewes, DE range from 10-25 knots with higher gusts. Barometric pressure continues to fall from South Carolina to Delaware
Do any of have have current info on the earthquake/tsunami? Thanks
1294. 900MB
951 Pressure, holy smokes!
...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...
8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 28
Location: 32.1°N 73.1°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Quoting presslord:
Do any of have have current info on the earthquake/tsunami? Thanks

The tsunami warning for Hawaii has been downgraded to an advisory.

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THE TSUNAMI THREAT HAS DECREASED AND
IS NOW AT THE ADVISORY LEVEL AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SEA
LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG CURRENTS MAY STILL OCCUR ALONG ALL COASTS
THAT COULD BE A HAZARD TO SWIMMERS AND BOATERS AS WELL AS TO PERSONS
NEAR THE SHORE AT BEACHES AND IN HARBORS AND MARINAS. THE THREAT
MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

Apparently the tsunami was smaller than expected and there was little if any damage.
1297. ncstorm
Quoting presslord:
Do any of have have current info on the earthquake/tsunami? Thanks


according to the news station out of Hawaii, its has been downgraded to an advisory..residents can return home..
Wave height forecast for tomorrow (note that these are just wave heights; surge and tide effects are not factored in):

Sandy

Notice the 20' waves expected in Lake Ontario by tomorrow night:

Sandy

Tomrrow evening's wind gusts (IOW: massive power failures):

Sandy
1299. LargoFl
1300. ncstorm
1301. 900MB
NHC just upped the Raritan Bay/Long Island Sound surge forecast to 6'-11'! At the low end, looks like the PATH and NYC Subways will be flooded!
1302. barbamz

Good morning everybody. Wavily day everywhere it seems?
1303. ncstorm
The death toll from Sandy is now at 70; 51 in Haiti, 2 in the Dominican Republic, 11 in Cuba, 3 in the Bahamas, and 1 each in Puerto Rico, Jamaica and the US.
Where I live in Cedar Island NC the surge is about 1 and a half foot from being Irene level.
1306. ncstorm
00z Euro Wind map
Monday


this storm is really going to book it on Monday and get up there to the NE
Tuesday


Wednesday
1307. LargoFl
Beach cam at cape Hatteras..whew
1309. LargoFl
Cape-Fear-NC 33.85n 77.97w
Oregon-Inlet-NC 35.76n 75.51w




554 am EDT sun Oct 28 2012

... Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect...

... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
precautionary/preparedness actions...

North Carolina Department of Transportation has suspended Ferry
service between Hatteras Village and Ocracoke. Ferry service has
also been suspended between Ocracoke and Cedar Island... and
Ocracoke and Swanquarter.

During the previous high tide cycle... overwash was reported on
Highway 12 near mirlo beach.

NC Highway 12 was closed at Oregon Inlet bridge for sand and
water covering the roadway.


... Winds...
as Hurricane Sandy approaches... sustained tropical storm force
winds are expected to continue through early Monday. Maximum
winds are forecast to be in the 35 to 45 mph range with gusts to
65 mph.

Minor to moderate damage is likely to many Mobile homes...
especially those that have canopies... awnings... or carports.
Poorly constructed homes may sustain minor wall damage and partial
roof removal. Other homes may have minor roof and siding damage.
Some loose outdoor items will be tossed around and may cause
additional damage. A few power lines will be knocked down
resulting in scattered power outages. Some large branches of
healthy trees will be snapped. Most newly planted trees and shrubs
will be damaged or uprooted.

... Storm surge and storm tide...
the Outer Banks should prepare for moderate coastal flooding and
overwash with inundation of 4 to 6 feet above ground level. On the
ocean side this will be accompanied by battering waves of 10 to 15
feet causing significant wave run up and dune overwash and destruction.
Highway 12 is vulnerable in typically prone areas to being
inundated or washed out out along the entire length of the Outer
Banks... particularly from around Rodanthe north through Duck where
conditions could approach major coastal flooding.

As winds become northwest tonight into Monday prepare for
sound side flooding of 3 to 5 feet above ground level anywhere
Soundside on the Outer Banks including Roanoke Island. Dunes will
likely be breached and Highway 12 inundated or washed out in
typically vulnerable locations.

... Inland flooding...
a Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. See latest
forecast for latest information. Listen for possible flood
warnings for your location... and be ready to act if flooding
rains occur.

An additional 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is possible today into
Monday.
Live stream at Hatteras I think. Tide is running real high... http://stormscapelive.tv/ustream/

000
WTNT33 KNHC 281204
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...

CORRECTED DIRECTION FROM NEW YORK CITY IN SUMMARY SECTION

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 73.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES...835 KM. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE. ALSO...NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND
REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
AT OR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO
11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY...3 TO 5 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
1312. ncstorm
Quoting LargoFl:
Beach cam at cape Hatteras..whew


Wow..the pier will be underwater soon..

In Nags head, you can see the Waves going over the pier..I wouldnt be surprise to see some piers buckle soon up that way..

1313. LargoFl
1314. LargoFl
1315. icmoore
Good morning. Breezy and cooler on the west coast of FL in Madeira Beach. Rip currents and Long-shore currents possible today here. I hope people pay attention and be careful.
Scattered sprinkles. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Northwest wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
Actually looks like a hurricane this morning, significant pressure drop in the recon, that means the wind field will only get larger.
1317. LargoFl
Pay attention to this up there folks
1318. LargoFl
Quoting interstatelover7165:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 281204
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...
As mayor of New York City, I see no reason to initiate evacuations at this time; after all, this sort of thing happens all the time.

NYC
1321. barbamz
NYC Statue of Liberty cam. Scary to hear the wind howling! And those gusts are just the harbingers of what probably will come.
Bloomberg said he wasnt making people evacuate because it wasnt forecast to be a hurricane at landfall -____-
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Bloomberg said he wasnt making people evacuate because it wasnt forecast to be a hurricane at landfall -____-


Just shows how high up the misconception of hurricanes really goes, all the way up to his advisers. Just because a cyclone goes post-tropical, doesn't mean it suddenly dies off into nothing.
1324. kdkinc
I have a gut feeling that this Sandy may go North further than forecast.
The two controlling systems the one in the North Atlantic and the one in the Central States appear to be moving.
The Atlantic system appears to be moving East and the Mid Central states appears to be building pressure on Sandy's West side.
All I can say is remember Charlie and how it slammed the Port Charlotte, Fl area.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Bloomberg said he wasnt making people evacuate because it wasnt forecast to be a hurricane at landfall -____-


He said because "Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it is not expected to be a tropical storm or hurricane-type surge." , whatever that means? Big mistake.

I hope people make their own decisions and don't rely on NYC gov to make prudent choices.
1326. LargoFl
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Just shows how high up the misconception of hurricanes really goes, all the way up to his advisers. Just because a cyclone goes post-tropical, doesn't mean it suddenly dies off into nothing.
yeah just saw him on tv..well he'll answer for this afterwards if it does get bad.
1327. LargoFl
this note from crown weather...... Major Impacts Expected From New England To The Mid-Atlantic Due To Hurricane Sandy; Please Take This Storm Extremely Seriously
1328. ncstorm
I cant even tell if the sun rose this morning..really dark here even at this time of morning..
TVCN and TV15 just updated with 12z numbers - shows a slight shift SOUTH in the average... to the very southern tip of NJ instead of central NJ.

Just FYI. Won't make a huge difference but obviously, you don't want to be on the north side of this system for coastal flooding issues. The south and west sides are where a lot of the bad weather is...

Link
1330. miajrz
I was just zooming in on the NHC interactive cone map and as far as I can tell, the center line bisects Philly. Does anyone have any info on possible impacts there?
1331. sar2401
Quoting Neapolitan:
As mayor of New York City, I see no reason to initiate evacuations at this time; after all, this sort of thing happens all the time.

NYC

Makes sense to me, Nea. He's probably too busy working on Glazed Donut Prohibition Act to be bothered by a non-hurricane. :)
Quoting sar2401:

Makes sense to me, Nea. He's probably too busy working on Glazed Donut Phohibition Act to be bothered by a non-hurricane. :)
What a fool. NYC is going to flood 11 feet of water and put waves on top of that.

1333. LargoFl
Just my personal opinion here, im just a poster ok..but to me its up to each individual up in the path of this real bad storm, to make their own personal decisions on whats best for their family, If i was there, i wouldnt be waiting for some government official to tell me..when to leave or stay, its up to ME huh..and its up to you folks up there..it might be just a real NASTY few days or..it could be very Dangerous..its up to each person to make his/her own decisions..as it always is in these kinds of situations..sorry for this post but for me its a logical statement
1334. LargoFl
Quoting txag91met:
What a fool. NYC is going to flood 11 feet of water and put waves on top of that.

and that water is Salt water..imagine what that does if 6 feet of that gets into the subway tunnels..all that metal and wiring..geez..
Mayor Bloomberg:

"Large-size soft drinks are a clear and present danger, and as such I will exhaust every possible resource in order to protect the people of this great city from them!!!"

"Life-threatening storm surge? Hurricane force winds? Massive power failures? An inoperable transit system? Meh."

Perhaps the NHC should temporarily rename the storm "Hurricane Pepsi" to induce the mayor to act...
1336. breald
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Bloomberg said he wasnt making people evacuate because it wasnt forecast to be a hurricane at landfall -____-


If anything this is going to be worse than a hurricane because it is much bigger and will last longer...He's all about the money.
1337. LargoFl
Quoting Neapolitan:
Mayor Bloomberg:

"Large-size soft drinks are a clear and present danger, and as such I will exhaust every possible resource in order to protect the people of this great city from them!!!"

"Life-threatening storm surge? Hurricane force winds? Massive power failures? An inoperable transit system? Meh."

Perhaps the NHC should temporarily rename the storm "Hurricane Pepsi" to induce the mayor to act...
LOL good one
1338. sar2401
Quoting Neapolitan:
Mayor Bloomberg:

"Large-size soft drinks are a clear and present danger, and as such I will exhaust every possible resource in order to protect the people of this great city from them!!!"

"Life-threatening storm surge? Hurricane force winds? Massive power failures? An inoperable transit system? Meh."

Perhaps the NHC should temporarily rename the storm "Hurricane Pepsi" to induce the mayor to act...

LOL. Good one, Nea.
New York needs a new mayor. It's as simple as that. Can't believe Bloomberg.
1340. LargoFl
why bother causing panic. can you evacuate a city where most of the folks dont have cars.?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Mayor Bloomberg:

"Large-size soft drinks are a clear and present danger, and as such I will exhaust every possible resource in order to protect the people of this great city from them!!!"

"Life-threatening storm surge? Hurricane force winds? Massive power failures? An inoperable transit system? Meh."

Perhaps the NHC should temporarily rename the storm "Hurricane Pepsi" to induce the mayor to act...


LOL
1343. ncstorm
Im sure all you know more than the Mayor of NY..I mean its not like people can make decisions for themselves..Adults in New York City have to be told what to do..

in fact, why dont you call him..here's the number..212 788-8123..be sure to tell him you are bloggers on WU and hold no weather or emergency management credentials..he will appreciate that..unbelievable!!

Quoting 900MB:
NHC just upped the Raritan Bay/Long Island Sound surge forecast to 6'-11'! At the low end, looks like the PATH and NYC Subways will be flooded!
Any updates from NYC emergency management. Are they closing schools and businesses tomorrow?
president is abandoning his political tour to work on the situation from the white house. you know its going to be bad now!
1346. LargoFl
Quoting islander101010:
why bother causing panic. can you evacuate a city where most of the folks dont have cars.?
yes i was thinking of that..most there do NOT have cars your right
1347. bassis
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Actually looks like a hurricane this morning, significant pressure drop in the recon, that means the wind field will only get larger.


My amateur eyes see this storm making progress on blocking off the dry air that has been prohibiting the SE side from wrapping around the center.
Dvorak looking more and more impressive with Sandy. Possibly a more NNE turn also
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flas h-bd-short.html
1349. LargoFl
Quoting islander101010:
why bother causing panic. can you evacuate a city where most of the folks dont have cars.?
well for one thing, NYC has a HUGE fleet of bus's..
Do city officials not consult with the NHC or any other type of weather agency before they make decisions for the people living in their city?

I just don't understand..
1352. LargoFl
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
738 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTH-SOUTH FRONTAL BAND WILL BE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH TONIGHT. HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY...TAKING AIM AT THE NEW JERSEY COAST. SANDY WILL LOSE HER
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL...BUT REMAIN A
VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL STORM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
EARLY-SEASON SNOWFALL BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
Agreed. This storm will likely be worse than Irene for many, yet it seems people are not taking it as serious. Those winds and the storm surge associated with the storm will last for over 24 hours. I just hope people stay safe. Here in Northern Virginia I think we will start getting deteriorating conditions within the next 12 hours.

Quoting Hurricane12:
Do city officials not consult with the NHC or any other type of weather agency before they make decisions for the people living in their city?

I just don't understand..
1354. HrDelta
Quoting Neapolitan:
Mayor Bloomberg:

"Large-size soft drinks are a clear and present danger, and as such I will exhaust every possible resource in order to protect the people of this great city from them!!!"

"Life-threatening storm surge? Hurricane force winds? Massive power failures? An inoperable transit system? Meh."

Perhaps the NHC should temporarily rename the storm "Hurricane Pepsi" to induce the mayor to act...


But I like Pepsi. Name it Hurricane Coke then. Got up to see this. How much will winds catch up with pressure.
1355. sar2401
Quoting islander101010:
why bother causing panic. can you evacuate a city where most of the folks dont have cars.?

NYC has a large fleet of busses and taxicabs. The subways and trains are still running. It's perfectly possible to offer evacuation options to people that live in NYC...if you had started yesterday.
Quoting LargoFl:



Forecast for Myrtle Beach on the North Coast of S.C. for example Cloudy with gusty winds. High 67F. Winds NNW at 25 to 35 mph.
Inland from the coast the forecast is for 15 - 25 mph winds today.

Your map is showing 50-70 mph winds for that region.
Quoting ncstorm:
Im sure all you know more than the Mayor of NY..I mean its not like people can make decisions for themselves..Adults in New York City have to be told what to do..

in fact, why dont you call him..here's the number..212 788-8123..be sure to tell him you are bloggers on WU and hold no weather or emergency management credentials..he will appreciate that..unbelievable!!



Given that he said it wasn't predicted to be producing hurricane force winds at landfall, I wouldn't be so sure of that. I rarely disagree with emergency management, but here I can't help to wonder what the heck are they seeing that we aren't?
1358. LargoFl
Quoting Sfloridacat5:



Forecast for Myrtle Beach on the North Coast of S.C. for example Cloudy with gusty winds. High 67F. Winds NNW at 25 to 35 mph.
Inland from the coast the forecast is for 15 - 25 mph winds today.

Your map is showing 50-70 mph winds for that region.
..ok, guess the site was wrong if thats true..thanks
favorite of all music is bluegrass i know what bill monroe would do he:d get his band to play some tunes dont need electric.
These NHC storm surge graphics for Sandy are a bit confusing. The 9-11 feet surge has a 10% chance of being exceeded.

Also, the graphic shows that there's a 50% chance of a 2-4 feet surge being exceeded. Which means, I suppose, that there's a 50% chance of it not being exceeded.

What they seem to be saying is that they haven't got a clue.

Link
Wow Sandy's pressure is dropping fast, will probably reach low 940s at this rate.

At least the earthquake was minimal.
That fault has the potential to produce 9.0 quakes off Washington and British Columbia, could be trouble for Upper US and Southern Canada coastal cities.
1362. LargoFl
HIP BOTTOM, N.J. (AP) --
It doesn't matter whether Sandy remains a hurricanes or weakens into a tropical storm.

Wherever it hits, the behemoth storm plodding up the East Coast will afflict a third of the country with sheets of rain, high winds and heavy snow, say officials who warned millions in coastal areas to get out of the way.

"We're looking at impact of greater than 50 to 60 million people," said Louis Uccellini, head of environmental prediction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

As Hurricane Sandy trekked north from the Caribbean - where it left nearly five dozen dead - to meet two other powerful winter storms, experts said it didn't matter how strong the storm was when it hit land: The rare hybrid storm that follows will cause havoc over 800 miles from the East Coast to the Great Lakes.

Governors from North Carolina, where steady rains were whipped by gusting winds Saturday night, to Connecticut declared states of emergency. Delaware ordered mandatory evacuations for coastal communities by 8 p.m. Sunday.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was criticized for not interrupting a vacation in Florida while a snowstorm pummeled the state in 2010, broke off campaigning for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in North Carolina on Friday to return home.

"I can be as cynical as anyone," said Christie, who declared a state of emergency Saturday. "But when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, you're going to wish you weren't as cynical as you otherwise might have been."

Eighty-five-year-old former sailor Ray Leonard agreed. And he knows to heed warnings.

Leonard and two crewmates in his 32-foot sailboat, Satori, rode out 1991's infamous "perfect storm," made famous by the Sebastian Junger best-selling book of the same name, before being plucked from the Atlantic off Martha's Vineyard, Mass., by a Coast Guard helicopter.

"Don't be rash," Leonard said Saturday from his home in Fort Myers, Fla. "Because if this does hit, you're going to lose all those little things you've spent the last 20 years feeling good about."

Sandy weakened briefly to a tropical storm Saturday but was soon back up to Category 1 strength, packing 75 mph winds. It was about 260 miles (420 kilometers) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and moving northeast at 13 mph as of 5 a.m. Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The storm, which moved past Florida on Saturday, was expected to continue moving parallel to the Southeast coast most of the day and approach the coast of the mid-Atlantic states by Monday night, before reaching southern New England later in the week.

It was so big, however, and the convergence of the three storms so rare, that "we just can't pinpoint who is going to get the worst of it," said Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Officials are particularly worried about the possibility of subway flooding in New York City, said Uccellini, of NOAA.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told the Metropolitan Transportation Authority to prepare to shut the city's subways, buses and suburban trains. The city closed the subways before Hurricane Irene last year, and a Columbia University study predicted that an Irene surge just 1 foot higher would have paralyzed lower Manhattan.

Up and down the Eastern Seaboard and far inland, officials urged residents and businesses to prepare in ways big and small.

On Saturday evening, Amtrak began canceling train service to parts of the East Coast, including between Washington, D.C., and New York. Airlines started moving planes out of airports to avoid damage and adding Sunday flights out of New York and Washington in preparation for flight cancellations on Monday.

The Virginia National Guard was authorized to call up to 500 troops to active duty for debris removal and road-clearing, while homeowners stacked sandbags at their front doors in coastal towns.

"You never want to be too naive, but ultimately, it's not in our hands anyway," said Andrew Ferencsik, 31, as he purchased plywood and 2-by-4 lumber from a Home Depot in Lewes, Del.

Utility officials warned rains could saturate the ground, causing trees to topple into power lines, and told residents to prepare for several days at home without power.

President Barack Obama was monitoring the storm and working with state and locals governments to make sure they get the resources needed to prepare, administration officials said.

In North Carolina's Outer Banks, a group of about 20 people was forced to wait out the storm on Portsmouth Island, a former fishing village that is now uninhabited and accessible only by private ferry.

"We tried to get off the island and the ferry service shut down on us," said Bill Rowley, 49, of Rocky Mount, N.C.

Rowley said he could see 15-foot seas breaking over the island's dunes, enough to bring water to the island's interior.

"We'll be inundated and it'll probably be worse tomorrow," he said.

In New Jersey, hundreds of coastal residents started moving inland. Christie's emergency declaration will force the shutdown of Atlantic City's 12 casinos for only the fourth time in the 34-year history of legalized gambling here. City officials said they would begin evacuating the gambling hub's 30,000 residents at noon Sunday, busing them to mainland shelters and schools.

The storm also forced the presidential campaign to juggle schedules.

Romney scrapped plans to campaign Sunday in Virginia and switched his schedule for the day to Ohio. First lady Michelle Obama canceled an appearance in New Hampshire for Tuesday, and Obama moved a planned Monday departure for Florida to Sunday night to beat the storm.

He also canceled appearances in Northern Virginia on Monday and Colorado on Tuesday.
1363. DFWjc
Quoting HrDelta:


But I like Pepsi. Name it Hurricane Coke then. Got up to see this. How much will winds catch up with pressure.


We can't have coke blowing around NYC...oh wait you meant the soft drink, nevermind...carry on...i was never hear..and you heard nothing...
I'm pretty certain it's not even possible to get NYC evacuated before landfall. The logistics of moving millions of people just won't allow for it. That doesn't mean he shouldn't at least advise people it would be a great idea to leave if they can.
Quoting DFWjc:


We can't have coke blowing around NYC...oh wait you meant the soft drink, nevermind...carry on...i was never hear..and you heard nothing...

LMAO
1366. sar2401
Quoting ncstorm:
Im sure all you know more than the Mayor of NY..I mean its not like people can make decisions for themselves..Adults in New York City have to be told what to do..

in fact, why dont you call him..here's the number..212 788-8123..be sure to tell him you are bloggers on WU and hold no weather or emergency management credentials..he will appreciate that..unbelievable!!


Actually, I do have pretty good emergency management credentials. Bloomberg himself doesn't believe adults in NYC are capable of making their own decisions in many matters. From an emergency managment perspective, having a worried and concerned mayor of a major city does help people to reconsider plans to leave threatened areas. Bloomberg's statement was not helpful.
Quoting ncstorm:
Im sure all you know more than the Mayor of NY..I mean its not like people can make decisions for themselves..Adults in New York City have to be told what to do..

in fact, why dont you call him..here's the number..212 788-8123..be sure to tell him you are bloggers on WU and hold no weather or emergency management credentials..he will appreciate that..unbelievable!!



I guess you haven't seen some of the mindless "malarkey" he's said about this storm.

I think everyone on here just feels he's being completely ignorant towards the entire situation. Why would he say that Sandy will be just another lousy storm impacting his area when you have the NHC saying that Sandy could potentially be catastrophic?

Maybe he should call the NHC or even his local NWS agency before making his own inexperienced conclusions.
1368. beell
If I lived clear of any storm surge/flash flooding, I don't think I would evacuate either. At worst, 70-80 mph winds are nothing to shrug off-but...shelter-in-place is very "do-able" for most structures.

This would probably include 90% of the population (or more) in the warned areas.

Despite the ridiculously low pressure, recon reports indicate Sandy is probably only about a 60-65mph TS right now. We'll have to see if the winds come back up as time goes on.

way too many people best if necessary is vertical evacuation. one day we will be talking about a cat 4 or 5 moving right over miami thats another challenge coming
1371. VR46L
Hmmm Sandy with front attached funktop image....Still a very dangerous situation when all the factors are added together



You see, if Bloomberg said "Hey, it's going to be producing hurricane force winds, even though it's not predicted to be tropical, it appears the worst of it may go south of us, and as such though we're not closing schools and work, we will take all necessary steps possible to prevent flooding and any damage to person or property" instead of pretty much saying "It's not even going to be a tropical hurricane, it's a complete non-event", I would have agreed with Bloomberg and would think that's a wise decision. Bloomberg isn't being political anything, he's simply seeming to be unsure of the difference of a 80mph hurricane, and a 80mph system that just went post-tropical, which is almost absolutely none.
Models have actually made a fairly significant shift southward this morning, Delaware may be the most likely landfall location right now:

1374. LargoFl
Quoting Kristina40:
I'm pretty certain it's not even possible to get NYC evacuated before landfall. The logistics of moving millions of people just won't allow for it. That doesn't mean he shouldn't at least advise people it would be a great idea to leave if they can.
well i dont think the whole of nyc would have to leave, most would be ok, but the 5 boro's have many low lying area's, those ARE at risk if what the NWS says comes true..and out on Long Island plenty more low lying area's..well its out of OUR hands anyway..we can just post about it...nothing official in here
Quoting ncstorm:
Im sure all you know more than the Mayor of NY..I mean its not like people can make decisions for themselves..Adults in New York City have to be told what to do..

in fact, why dont you call him..here's the number..212 788-8123..be sure to tell him you are bloggers on WU and hold no weather or emergency management credentials..he will appreciate that..unbelievable!!

So you're in agreement with his ongoing Battle Against Large-Sized Soft Drinks?

I'm sure Bloomberg wants to come across as reasonable to avoid creating a panic. But to pretend this is just business-as-usual, just another little storm, is wrong. As with global warming, it's okay to pull the alarm if the building is actually on fire.

Americans will be killed by Sandy. You can be sure of it. I'm not saying any of those deaths will be on Bloomberg's hands--but woe unto the overcautious politician who lets it happen despite the many warnings he or she received...
1376. LargoFl
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Models have actually made a fairly significant shift southward this morning, Delaware may be the most likely landfall location right now:

thats what im afraid of..still time to deviate path yet
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Despite the ridiculously low pressure, recon reports indicate Sandy is probably only about a 60-65mph TS right now. We'll have to see if the winds come back up as time goes on.


Recon found hurricane force winds in the SW quadrant when they first entered the storm, and haven't been back to that area since then. It's probably still a hurricane.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Models have actually made a fairly significant shift southward this morning, Delaware may be the most likely landfall location right now:



less water driving into long island sound in that scenario......more into the NJ coast..no funneling effect.
1379. DFWjc
Could someone explain why this trough can't push Sandy out to sea rather than sucking her into land and merging?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Models have actually made a fairly significant shift southward this morning, Delaware may be the most likely landfall location right now:


Delaware Bay?
Mayor Bloomberg is definitely rolling the dice with this one right now. He's betting on it being overhyped. Personally I stand by my thoughts from yesterday that this will end up as a major, but not epic storm. Basically that's what he's assuming also. If he's wrong though...
1382. ncstorm
Quoting sar2401:

Actually, I do have pretty good emergency management credentials. Bloomberg himself doesn't believe adults in NYC are capable of making their own decisions in many matters. From an emergency managment perspective, having a worried and concerned mayor of a major city does help people to reconsider plans to leave threatened areas. Bloomberg's statement was not helpful.


I believe Sherwood posted the transcript of what he said yesterday where he did advise people to make decisions and such..you guys want this man to declare panic and hysteria and to wring his hands on national TV..okay..I just dont get the bashing of this man..its easy to sit here and say what you will do but until you are in that position then you have no idea of how to run a metropolitian city..I just hope that people are not sitting there waiting on one man to tell them to leave or not..
1383. DFWjc
Quoting Neapolitan:
So you're in agreement with his ongoing Battle Against Large-Sized Soft Drinks?

I'm sure Bloomberg wants to come across as reasonable to avoid creating a panic. But to pretend this is just business-as-usual, just another little storm, is wrong. As with global warming, it's okay to pull the alarm if the building is actually on fire.

Americans will be killed by Sandy. You can be sure of it. I'm not saying any of those deaths will be on Bloomberg's hands--but woe to the overcautious politician who lets it happen despite the many warnings he or she received...


Hey I'm all for it, as long as they don't try to charge the same $4-5 price at the theater for a smaller cup. If i have to buy two drinks i'm cool with that. (If i were on the east coast that is..but I'm in Texas and love my 44-52oz cups LOL)
This is in the remarks section of the new NOAA vortex message:

WEAK EYEWALL REMNANT W THRU SE


Forecast time of surge at the Battery is now at low tide, which reduces forecast level down from the 10.5 ft earlier plot.
1386. beell
Woe to the slow learners and idealists who continue to rely and depend on the government to take responsibility for their own safety.
#NOAA42 is finished our last pass through #Sandy. Eye evolved over mission with cell S of center on 1st pass wrapping around center.
1388. LargoFl
Quoting beell:
Woe to the slow learners and idealists who continue to rely and depend on the government to take responsibility for their own safety.
exactly
The Great 1977 New York City Power Outage


(source: Wikipedia)

The blackout occurred when the city was facing a severe financial crisis and its residents were fretting over the Son of Sam murders. The nation as a whole was suffering from a protracted economic downturn and commentators have contrasted the event with the good-natured "Where Were You When the Lights Went Out?" atmosphere of 1965. Some pointed to the financial crisis as a root cause of the disorder, others noted the hot July weather. (The city at the time was in the middle of a brutal heat wave). Still others pointed out that the 1977 blackout came after businesses had closed and their owners went home, while in 1965 the blackout occurred during the day and owners stayed to protect their property. However, the 1977 looters continued their damage into the daylight hours, with police on alert.


Looting and vandalism were widespread, hitting 31 neighborhoods, including most poor neighborhoods in the city. Possibly the hardest hit were Crown Heights, where 75 stores on a five-block stretch were looted, and Bushwick where arson was rampant with some 25 fires still burning the next morning. At one point two blocks of Broadway, which separates Bushwick from Bedford-Stuyvesant in Brooklyn, were on fire. Thirty-five blocks of Broadway were destroyed: 134 stores looted, 45 of them set ablaze. Thieves stole 50 new Pontiacs from a Bronx car dealership. In Brooklyn, youths were seen backing up cars to targeted stores, tying ropes around the stores' grates, and using their cars to pull the grates away before looting the store.

While 550 police officers were injured in the mayhem, 4,500 looters were arrested.
Mayor Abe Beame spoke during the blackout about what citizens were up against during the blackout and what the costs would be.
"We've seen our citizens subjected to violence, vandalism, theft and discomfort. The Blackout has threatened our safety and has seriously impacted our economy. We've been needlessly subjected to a night of terror in many communities that have been wantonly looted and burned. The costs when finally tallied will be enormous."

Because of the power failure, LaGuardia and Kennedy airports were closed down for about eight hours, automobile tunnels were closed because of lack of ventilation, and 4,000 people had to be evacuated from the subway system. ConEd called the shutdown an "act of God", enraging Mayor Beame, who charged that the utility was guilty of "gross negligence."

In many neighborhoods, veterans of the 1965 blackout headed to the streets at the first sign of darkness. But many of them did not find the same spirit. In poor neighborhoods across the city, looting and arson erupted. On streets like Brooklyn's Broadway the rumble of iron store gates being forced up and the shattering of glass preceded scenes of couches, televisions, and heaps of clothing being paraded through the streets by looters at once defiant, furtive and gleeful.

"The looters were looting other looters, and the fists and the knives were coming out," Carl St. Martin, a neurologist in Forest Hills, Queens, recalled years later. A third-year medical student living in Bushwick when the blackout hit, recalled he spent the night suturing a succession of angry wounds at Wyckoff Heights Hospital. Before the lights came back on, even Brooks Brothers on Madison Avenue was looted. On July 17, the first Sunday after the blackout, a priest named Gabriel Santacruz looked out at the congregation in St. Barbara's Church in Bushwick and jokingly referred to the "act of God", declared by ConEd when he said, "We are without God now."

In all, 1,616 stores were damaged in looting and rioting. 1,037 fires were responded to, including 14 multiple-alarm fires. In the largest mass arrest in city history, 3,776 people were arrested. Many had to be stuffed into overcrowded cells, precinct basements and other makeshift holding pens. A Congressional study estimated that the cost of damages amounted to a little over US$300 million.
1390. LargoFl
..........you guys are better at this than i am..but from this 8am new track solution...does this look like DC will get hit hard with sandy now??
lets just evacuate the entire east coast. EVERYONE.... millions upon millions...because we know better on WU than they know about their particular cities.....uggggg....really folks! And lets place them in.....? get them there how?...
I am sure NYC's mayor has thought this out with discussions with the NHC and NWS.
Quoting beell:
Woe to the slow learners and idealists who continue to rely and depend on the government to take responsibility for their own safety.

Doesn't mean the Mayor should act like it's a non-event. You'd be surprised at the number of people who wait for the government to start preparing before they do.
Is Sandy trying to build up an eyewall?
Link
1394. ncstorm
Quoting Neapolitan:
So you're in agreement with his ongoing Battle Against Large-Sized Soft Drinks?

I'm sure Bloomberg wants to come across as reasonable to avoid creating a panic. But to pretend this is just business-as-usual, just another little storm, is wrong. As with global warming, it's okay to pull the alarm if the building is actually on fire.

Americans will be killed by Sandy. You can be sure of it. I'm not saying any of those deaths will be on Bloomberg's hands--but woe unto the overcautious politician who lets it happen despite the many warnings he or she received...


honestly Nea..I didnt know anything about the soft drinkgate until yesterday when WU bloggers were posting it..Im just trying to be optomistic and not put fear mongering in the lurkers who are up in the NE..in this day of age of social media and television at people's fingertips, anyone on the east coast should be able to assess the situation and come up with a decision on their own to whether to stay or leave..no one has mention the fact that he has set up shelters, its not like he went on vacation and left the city to fend for itself..
The ATCF just updated to reflect the 951 mb reading taken recently. FWIW, that's three millibars lower than the 954 mb reading taken when Sandy was a high-end cat 2 with 95 knot winds:

AL, 18, 2012102812, , BEST, 0, 321N, 731W, 65, 951, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 150, 0, 1006, 480, 90, 80, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SANDY, D, 12, NEQ, 480, 600, 420, 270
1396. LargoFl
Quoting 954FtLCane:
lets just evacuate the entire east coast. EVERYONE.... millions upon millions...because we know better on WU than they know about their particular cities.....uggggg....really folks! And lets place them in.....? get them there how?...
I am sure NYC's mayor has thought this out with discussions with the NHC and NWS.
yeah lets get back to weather
Quoting DFWjc:
Could someone explain why this trough can't push Sandy out to sea rather than sucking her into land and merging?

The models show the trough will go into a negative tilt which has the tendency to pull storms back toward it rather than push it out to sea.
I'll take the small drink, popcorn without salt and corn oil, because government knows best!
I honestly dislike when someone's angry on this blog and uses the "you guys are just irrelevant bloggers who have no idea about the world" argument, if you can even call it that. Well, yes, everyone here is a blogger, but we do have an appreciation for the weather, and you can bet that the least everyone here knows is that even the smallest of cyclones can be extremely dangerous.
Latest center pass by the AF plane shows little pressure change:

951.9 mb
(~ 28.11 inHg)
1401. LargoFl
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
912 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

ANZ330-335-282115-
/O.CON.KOKX.HF.W.0001.121029T1000Z-121030T1600Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
912 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATION...LONG ISLAND SOUND.

* WINDS...EAST 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KT.

* SEAS...8 TO 13 FEET.

* TIMING...GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE
BY LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE
LOWERING BY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 64 KT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...
UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR
SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

&&
Quoting Velocity23:
Is Sandy trying to build up an eyewall?
Link

Looks like it. Could be a sign of increase in winds.
Quoting LargoFl:
..........you guys are better at this than i am..but from this 8am new track solution...does this look like DC will get hit hard with sandy now??

There will be major impacts in DC, it will be one of the hardest hit areas, especially with this southward shift in the models.
SANDY'S COMING!

WE MUST TAKE SPONGEBOB AND DEPLOY HIM ON THE SEAWALL.
1405. LargoFl
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

There will be major impacts in DC, it will be one of the hardest hit areas, especially with this southward shift in the models.
yeah this is bad..thanks
Good morning, all. All of the NJ transit will be shut down tomorrow. I've tried to contact family in upstate NY, but no answers. But I know what my sister would say, 'that she is fine, my nephew in NJ will be fine. They may pick up a few things just in case...'
Quoting Hurricane12:
I honestly dislike when someone's angry on this blog and uses the "you guys are just irrelevant bloggers who have no idea about the world" argument, if you can even call it that. Well, yes, everyone here is a blogger, but we do have an appreciation for the weather, and you can bet that the least everyone here knows is that even the smallest of cyclones can be extremely dangerous.

My whole damn family has prepared wonderfully for this storm days in advance. Food for the babies, flashlights, everything. Who do I thank, the media, Bloomberg? No the people on this blog. Thank you all, great job
1408. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MINOR FLOODING.

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO A POSITION OFF THE
VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWEST AND
MOVING TOWARD THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL THEN
TRACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

IMPACTS INCLUDE...

DAMAGING WINDS: A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. PEAK WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH ARE LIKELY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES.

FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN: A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE STORM. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW 5 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. RISES ON RIVERS FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLOODING
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING: A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY FOR MINOR FLOODING AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WATER LEVEL ANOMALIES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC WILL
RANGE BETWEEN ONE TO THREE FEET.

MARINE AREAS...A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. TODAY WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS...OF
50 KNOTS OR MORE...WILL DEVELOP AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY TO BELOW GALE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT IS MORE LIKELY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

$$
Sandy actually looks like a hurricane, for once.
Quoting ncstorm:


I believe Sherwood posted the transcript of what he said yesterday where he did advise people to make decisions and such..you guys want this man to declare panic and hysteria and to wring his hands on national TV..okay..I just dont get the bashing of this man..its easy to sit here and say what you will do but until you are in that position then you have no idea of how to run a metropolitian city..I just hope that people are not sitting there waiting on one man to tell them to leave or not..
There is, of course, a world of difference between calmly discussing the very real life-threatening dangers posed by an imminent (and perhaps unprecedented) storm and "declaring panic and hysteria and wringing his hands on national TV". In the opinions of most people--that is, not just those here in this forum--Bloomberg downplayed, perhaps folishly, the severity of the situation. No one is claiming that the entire city should be evacuated or placed under martial law; we're just saying Bloomberg, as the city's leader, may have chosen words more cautious than, "Please don't go surfing during the storm". That's all.
Wish I didn't have to go to work now. Won't be able to check updates until 5 but good luck to everyone and stay safe! I guess I'll see whats new when I get back
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Sandy actually looks like a hurricane, for once.


Yeah, and she's really trying to get some sort of eye going it looks like.
Yes, we should all make our own decisions and do our own planning, however, I would ask for compassion for those with less knowledge and fewer resources. Fact is, roughly half the population has IQs under 100 (and probably no one here on WU), and even among the other half, understanding of probabilities is very lacking. While it may seem like a lot of us lurk here on WU< we are still a tiny minority of the population. And when TWC and other "news" entities hype every snow flake like the end of times is coming, it makes it very hard for folks without other sources of information to distinguish when they really should be concerned.

And among all sorts of people, there are many right now who are really struggling, working 2 or 3 jobs and are just too busy and exhausted to spend time stalking every move Sandy makes.

I know many otherwise "smart" people who also misinterpret the "cone of probability" to be the map of the area that will be affected.
Quoting medicroc:

My whole damn family has prepared wonderfully for this storm days in advance. Food for the babies, flashlights, everything. Who do I thank, the media, Bloomberg? No the people on this blog. Thank you all, great job


The thing is, it's not like when you buy things, food, water, batteries, etc., that you're wasting money buying things you won't ever need. I always look at it this way, I prepare and if I don't need it, then I've saved some money on grocery bills later on. Should I need it, I'm prepared.
Ocracoke Island, NC Highway 12 under water pic.twitter.com/Jafmi7ug
sodas do nothing good for the body they are addicting too. beer is better
1417. barbamz
Link


What sandy looks like from Bermuda Radar
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Sandy actually looks like a hurricane, for once.
for once? It definitely looked like a hurricane in the Caribbean....
1421. sigh
Quoting Kristina40:
I'm pretty certain it's not even possible to get NYC evacuated before landfall. The logistics of moving millions of people just won't allow for it. That doesn't mean he shouldn't at least advise people it would be a great idea to leave if they can.

It's not a question of evacuating all of NYC. It's a question of the small percentage of residents who live in flood areas walking to a neighbor's apartment or a shelter outside of a flood area. Nobody in NYC has to travel more than a mile to get out of harm's way. Most of them just need to arrange to spend the day a few blocks away.
1422. BDAwx
this is very interesting, to me nothing sounds like hype, it all sounds like people stressing the life threatening impacts that are forecast to be associated with this hurricane. I have heard terms 'historic', 'megastorm' etc. being thrown around, but nothing that implies that the end of times are associated with this storm - its all about interpretation I guess.

It must take a lot more for the public to think of a storm as a 'megastorm' than for a meteorologist. Because, to me, a storm this size and this powerful, forming under such a rare atmospheric alignment is definitely a megastorm.
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah this is bad..thanks




Wonder how the chesapeake bay will fair with the surge?
1424. TheDewd
Our very own Dr. Masters on Reuters:

Link
1425. aimetti
Quoting barbamz:
High resolution visible loop of the new eye.


wow impressive
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Despite the ridiculously low pressure, recon reports indicate Sandy is probably only about a 60-65mph TS right now. We'll have to see if the winds come back up as time goes on.

Not true they found hurricane winds S/W of the center and so did ship reports!!
Here is a webcam showing the waves/surge while Sandy is still well offshore.

Link
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
for once? It definitely looked like a hurricane in the Caribbean....

I would tend to agree.



Quoting gulfbreeze:
Not true they found hurricane winds S/W of the center and so did ship reports!!

A while ago though..
Quoting VermontStorms:
Yes, we should all make our own decisions and do our own planning, however, I would ask for compassion for those with less knowledge and fewer resources. Fact is, roughly half the population has IQs under 100 (and probably no one here on WU), and even among the other half, understanding of probabilities is very lacking. While it may seem like a lot of us lurk here on WU< we are still a tiny minority of the population. And when TWC and other "news" entities hype every snow flake like the end of times is coming, it makes it very hard for folks without other sources of information to distinguish when they really should be concerned.

And among all sorts of people, there are many right now who are really struggling, working 2 or 3 jobs and are just too busy and exhausted to spend time stalking every move Sandy makes.

I know many otherwise "smart" people who also misinterpret the "cone of probability" to be the map of the area that will be affected.


Well said. I know some too.
1431. BDAwx
Quoting bxstormwatcher:
Link


What sandy looks like from Bermuda Radar


There was a reported tornado in Bermuda around 10am local time.
1432. Grothar
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
for once? It definitely looked like a hurricane in the Caribbean....

It didn't look like a hurricane in the Caribbean. It looked like a major hurricane there. :P
Quoting sigh:

It's not a question of evacuating all of NYC. It's a question of the small percentage of residents who live in flood areas walking to a neighbor's apartment or a shelter outside of a flood area. Nobody in NYC has to travel more than a mile to get out of harm's way. Most of them just need to arrange to spend the day a few blocks away.


Also to consider high rise building with possible wind damage, and being stuck 20 plus floors up with no power. Most high rise windows will blow with debris hitting. I recall our high rise windows here in NOLA. So many people had to stay in hallways for days on end. Not good.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Not true they found hurricane winds S/W of the center and so did ship reports!!


Yup. Seems the south side is the strongest, the GFDL and HWRF say that one coming.
Quoting sigh:

It's not a question of evacuating all of NYC. It's a question of the small percentage of residents who live in flood areas walking to a neighbor's apartment or a shelter outside of a flood area. Nobody in NYC has to travel more than a mile to get out of harm's way. Most of them just need to arrange to spend the day a few blocks away.


I think the time to evacuate NYC is over, so many people live there......so this is major problem for mayor Bloomber... This storm is supposed to expand in the next 24 hours, they will start feel TS wind tomorow in the morning
Does any one know how the Outer Banks are doing?The road has got to be washed out in places allready! I heard that place floods during fullmoon high tides without giant storms just off to its East!!!!!
1438. snotly
Dang, the ice-machine just broke on my sword-fishing boat, I gotta get back to market in Gloucester, MA ASAP. I'm off the Flemish Cap, what does the weather look like back state side?
1439. Grothar
36 hours





72 hours


Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It didn't look like a hurricane in the Caribbean. It looked like a major hurricane there. :P

It was a major hurricane. In my mind it was..
Quoting TheDewd:
Our very own Dr. Masters on Reuters:

Link


Thanks, Dewd!

Well done, Doc!
1442. Grothar
Quoting snotly:
Dang, the ice-machine just broke on my sword-fishing boat, I gotta get back to market in Gloucester, MA ASAP. I'm off the Flemish Cap, what does the weather look like back state side?


how long will it take you to get there?
Quoting snotly:
Dang, the ice-machine just broke on my sword-fishing boat, I gotta get back to market in Gloucester, MA ASAP. I'm off the Flemish Cap, what does the weather look like back state side?

It's nice in MA this morning. Cloudy but mild and just a light breeze. You'll be fine pretty much all day getting in here.
This is not your normal Hurricane, and it's never been more true DO Not just look at where the center will come ashore. The angle will cause the surge to be bad north of the center in NEW YORK.
Quoting Grothar:

Every time you post this model run I get closer and closer to believing that instead of a hurricane I will be swallowed by a black hole.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It didn't look like a hurricane in the Caribbean. It looked like a major hurricane there. :P

It appears it'll be upgraded in the post-season, according to the wording in one of the discussions:
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

EARLIER THIS MORNING...SANDY MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. CUBAN RADAR DATA AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED
THAT SANDY HAD A WELL-DEFINED 20-24 N MI DIAMETER EYE WHEN IT MADE
LANDFALL. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 117 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE ESTIMATES OF 91-92 KT. A
BLEND OF THESE DATA YIELDS A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 99 KT...JUST
BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE MAIN REASON WHY SANDY WAS HELD
JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WAS DUE TO THE SUSTAINED 68-KT
WIND AND GUST TO 99 KT THAT OCCURRED AROUND 0517Z. HOWEVER...
STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE OCCURRED LATER WHEN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL MOVED ONSHORE...WHICH IS THE QUADRANT WHERE
THE 117-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS OBSERVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KT IS BASED ON WIND DECAY MODELS FOR HURRICANES OVER LAND.

shortly upon landfall in se.cuba i believe sandy was a major. just look at the photos from that area. there arent many photos released maybe because the castros are embarrassed by the extreme poverty in that part of cuba
1449. will40
Quoting HurricaneGroupie:
Does any one know how the Outer Banks are doing?The road has got to be washed out in places allready! I heard that place floods during fullmoon high tides without giant storms just off to its East!!!!!


Highway 12 washed out in places and here is a web cam from Nags HeadLink
It's very windy here, more so than yesterday.

The ocean is not happy.

Link
1451. guygee
Quoting stormchaser19:


I think the time to evacuate NYC is over, so many people live there......so this is major problem for mayor Bloomber... This storm is supposed to expand in the next 24 hours, they will start feel TS wind tomorow in the morning
Right now he is Mayor Bloomber, but after the storm he will just be mayor Blo.
1452. snotly
Ah, no worries, just a reenactment of the perfect storm movie. I thought someone would catch it, but speaking of... How do the two storms compare? This almost looks worse than the 1991 Perfect Storm. I wouldn't want to be trying to come into port with this thing coming at me.


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


how long will it take you to get there?
Quoting barbamz:
High resolution visible loop of the new eye.


Whoa that is too cool! Any chnce this storm could get back up to a 2?I thought for sure it would be Post tropical by now! Yet what little I know about hurricanes ;I do know that nice eye walls mean a very warm core!!!!
1454. 900MB
Bloomberg news conference at 11am (7 hours earlier than scheduled). Will he order evacuations? Last chance to gt it right!
Quoting snotly:
Ah, no worries, just a reenactment of the perfect storm movie. I thought someone would catch it, but speaking of... How do the two storms compare? This almost looks worse than the 1991 Perfect Storm. I wouldn't want to be trying to come into port with this thing coming at me.




I was wondering when I read that...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's very windy here, more so than yesterday.

The ocean is not happy.

Link


Well there's a hurricane off your coast, not sure if you knew yet. ;)
WRF 939mb landfall





1458. Melagoo
I'm looking at the bigger picture here, by the looks of the path, Pennsylvania could get epic flooding, i.e. remember the Johnstown flood? The area had recent heavy rainfalls due the the front that was absorbed into Sandy.
I'm not so worried about the surge, I'm really worried about the flooding and how government will respond, many roads in Pennsylvania, could be washed out do to the topography of the State.
New Jersey and Maryland and West Virginia should be worried too!
If I lived in any of those States, I'd take action NOW!
I'm not a doom and gloomer, but I can read the stars!
Quoting 900MB:
Bloomberg news conference at 11am (7 hours earlier than scheduled). Will he order evacuations? Last chance to gt it right!


I can understand not trying to evacuate NYC, not that many roads to send people out of there. But I think instead of focusing on the possible water levels, they need to be concentrating on making people understand they may be without electric for a good while. And even when the electric comes back on, their stores aren't going to just have the supplies they need. It isn't just a case of the electric goes out and all is back to normal when it comes back on.
1461. Grothar
Quoting EricSpittle:

Every time you post this model run I get closer and closer to believing that instead of a hurricane I will be swallowed by a black hole.


Maybe a blue hole will make you feel better.

1462. 900MB
Quoting stormchaser19:


I think the time to evacuate NYC is over, so many people live there......so this is major problem for mayor Bloomber... This storm is supposed to expand in the next 24 hours, they will start feel TS wind tomorow in the morning

Still time to get people out of the battery but gotta start now!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
11:30 AM IST October 28 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, latest satellite imagery and buoy observations indicate that a depression has formed over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal. Depression BOB02-2012 lays near 9.5N 86.0E, or 730 km southeast of Chennai, India 550 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system would intensify into a deep depression and move initially westward towards Tamil Nadu coast.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 7.0N and 13.0N and 85.0E to 89.0E. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lies over the rest southeast Bay of Bengal between 5.0N to 7.0N and 85.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 HRS. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression.

The buoy observation around the center of the depression show 20-25 knot wind in the northern sector and about 15 knots in the southern sector. At 6:00 AM UTC, buoy position near 8.1N 85.5E, reported wind of 18 knots and a mean surface level pressure of 1005 hPa. Buoy located near 11.0N 86.5E reported a mean surface level pressure of 1007.5 hPa with winds of 23 knots. Earlier scatterometry data indicated 25-30 knots wind in the northern sector of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm square around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence provides required poleward outflow for intensification of the system. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 24 hrs as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. However, it increases towards north Tamil Nadu and adjoining sea areas
Good morning from the Adirondacks of Northern New York. Longtime lurker but always enjoy reading the blog. Last year, I moved from Palm Bay, FL to Lake Placid, NY to assist with my soon to be 97 year old Dad. Definitely not as many hurricanes come up this way (compared to my old home in Florida) but many of the villages around Lake Placid were washed away by Irene last year. This time on the mountain, we are predicted to get some very strong winds, even hurricane forced gusts and likely to lose power. The flood threat is always possible as well. High wind warnings are up here til Tuesday. Thank you Dr. Masters for your wonderful updates and to everyone for their feedback. We will try to stay safe up here and we pray for our neighbors to the south of us who are forecast to get it much worse than we are.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
21:00 PM JST October 28 2012
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SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (970 hPa) located at 19.9N 106.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
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60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
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180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
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24 HRS: 21.6N 107.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
1466. icmoore
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
1467. 900MB
Cuomo steps , closes subways, rails, etc starting at 7pm tonight.
Gov Cuomo on now. If Bloomburg decides evacuation today, transit will be available, but only today. National Guard will be activated. NY airports are not being closed at this time, but most transit in NYC will be.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's very windy here, more so than yesterday.

The ocean is not happy.

Link

Whoa. I don't see any sand.
Hook, line, sinker,,,,,,,,,


In October 1991, the swordfishing boat Andrea Gail returns to port in Gloucester, Massachusetts with a poor catch. Desperate for money, Captain Billy Tyne (Clooney), convinces the Andrea Gail crew to join him for one more late season fishing expedition. They head out past their usual fishing grounds, leaving a developing thunderstorm behind them. Initially unsuccessful, they head to the Flemish Cap, where their luck improves.


Link
Quoting Grothar:


Maybe a blue hole will make you feel better.



Somehow it doesn't :)

Although luckily here in the Southern Tier of NY it isn't looking like we will get the flooding we saw last year. Mainly just Wind, about 36 hours worth of possibly TS force wind. Had a nice talk with the tree out back yesterday, and it promises to fall away from my house.

Thanks again from that lurking guy who has been learning a whole hell of a lot over the last couple of days in this comment section.
Quoting HurricaneGroupie:


Whoa that is too cool! Any chnce this storm could get back up to a 2?I thought for sure it would be Post tropical by now! Yet what little I know about hurricanes ;I do know that nice eye walls mean a very warm core!!!!

I think there's a chance for it to get back to 2. Anyone think it's possible? But with NHC's conservativeness it's likely not to happen.
Um, wow.

This is the latest surge projection for the Battery. When he wrote this update, Dr. Masters gave a catastrophic flooding event a 30% chance of reaching the subways (and, by extension, forcing the shutdown of the power grid in Lower Manhattan and the closure of the steam loops.) But that was only if the 10.5ft forecast verified.

Well, guess what? They're now projecting 11 ft. And the observations are running significantly higher than the forecast right now. Couple that with some fairly impressive wave action, and we've got a brewing catastrophe.
I know and understand Sandy is the current focus, but are any of the models still showing any type of formation in the Caribbean in 10 days or so?
Great storm-sound from the torch cam this morning. I have never heard it sound like this at all, and check it out fairly often.Link

FYI, that cam faces North East.
1476. Grothar
Quoting EricSpittle:


Somehow it doesn't :)

Although luckily here in the Southern Tier of NY it isn't looking like we will get the flooding we saw last year. Mainly just Wind, about 36 hours worth of possibly TS force wind. Had a nice talk with the tree out back yesterday, and it promises to fall away from my house.

Thanks again from that lurking guy who has been learning a whole hell of a lot over the last couple of days in this comment section.


Our other home is in the Southern Tier of PA in Bradford county.
Quoting Grothar:


Our other home is in the Southern Tier of PA in Bradford county.

Wow, what a small world. As long as the rainfall models the NHC has now are correct the devastating flooding should stay out of your area as well hopefully. I am concerned about this wind through, very rare in this area to have any sort of sustained winds and quite a few trees still have their leaves.
1478. Dakster
Quoting hunkerdown:
I know and understand Sandy is the current focus, but are any of the models still showing any type of formation in the Caribbean in 10 days or so?


There was earlier. Grothar can expound on that as he brought that up a couple of days ago.
1479. beell
A good attempt at a storm resource for specific local areas here-as long as there are active NHC watches and warnings-which removes some of the effectiveness and reach of this product. A few active NWS Wind/Coastal Flood/Inland Flood Hazard feeds for Sandy covering the Mid Atlantic now, but nothing else. A shame.

Straight-forward and easy to navigate. STILL DESIGNATED AS AN "EXPERIMENTAL" PRODUCT!. It needs some work. A time and date stamp for the products would be helpful.

(click image for Hurricane Local Statement - Interactive Text Reader Main Page)

1480. ncstorm
okay, I heard that it looks like that Sandy is turning north according to the latest recon fix..that was sooner than expected according to the NHC which had her turning North on MONDAY so i wondered if she is going to be turning west sooner as well?

1481. Grothar
Quoting 900MB:
Cuomo steps , closes subways, rails, etc starting at 7pm tonight.


Smart move.
Quoting hunkerdown:
I know and understand Sandy is the current focus, but are any of the models still showing any type of formation in the Caribbean in 10 days or so?


I think GFS dropped it but our friend Grothar will confirm.
Entry pulled as was a repeat
Sandy currently surpasses any other Atlantic storm in recorded history for its storm surge destructive potential value (5.7/6.0) and it has a higher Integrated Kinetc Energy (IKE) value than Hurricane Ike did in 2008.

If this isn't an indication of how destructive Sandy may be, I don't know what is.
Quoting EricSpittle:


Somehow it doesn't :)

Although luckily here in the Southern Tier of NY it isn't looking like we will get the flooding we saw last year. Mainly just Wind, about 36 hours worth of possibly TS force wind. Had a nice talk with the tree out back yesterday, and it promises to fall away from my house.

Thanks again from that lurking guy who has been learning a whole hell of a lot over the last couple of days in this comment section.


One of the big problems with that general area is that not only are the trees not used to this sort of thing, but the houses in general aren't really designed with this in mind either. I am thinking mostly of the windows ... boarding them up approaches the unthinkable in many cases. Some of the older barns may well go down in this too.
Sandy's starting to look like a proper hurricane again.
SSideBrac, they were all over the news as it was happening last night. before any of the news media picked it up. go wu
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Re 1473. So, if I'm interpreting this correctly, the first significant flooding at the Battery is likely to place as early as the Monday morning high tide around 10 a.m. Then, in the evening high tide, extreme to catastrophic flooding, with a high probability of flooding of parts of the subway systems is likely.
I see some waves overtopping the dunes in NC. What's the tide now at Kill Devil Hills, NC?
Link
Quoting plutorising:
SSideBrac, they were all over the news as it was happening last night. before any of the news media picked it up. go wu

Have deleted my entry accordingly :-)
Quoting ncstorm:
okay, I heard that it looks like that Sandy is turning north according to the latest recon fix..that was sooner than expected according to the NHC which had her turning North on MONDAY so i wondered if she is going to be turning west sooner as well?


I don't see any turn. In fact, recon shows the center jogged east.
1493. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I think GFS dropped it but our friend Grothar will confirm.


It is currently dropped, but I would wait for Sandy to pass out of the way and look at the high pressure if it builds back over Canada and the US.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sandy currently surpasses any other Atlantic storm in recorded history for its storm surge destructive potential value (5.7/6.0) and it has a higher Integrated Kinetc Energy (IKE) value than Hurricane Ike did in 2008.

If this isn't an indication of how destructive Sandy may be, I don't know what is.


In my opinion in this case that product is flawed, as it assumes a tropical cyclone and as the latest HWIND shows the maximum winds are well away from the center. My opinion, just don't believe that Sandy is worse than Katrina.


Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Great storm-sound from the torch cam this morning. I have never heard it sound like this at all, and check it out fairly often.Link

FYI, that cam faces North East.
I'm watching the torch live feed facing manhattan... I guess the cranes on top of one World Trade Center are going to stay up during the storm. Seems unstable lol