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Sandy slams Cuba, intensifies over the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on October 25, 2012

Hurricane Sandy shrugged off wind shear of 20 knots and passage over the southeastern tip of Jamaica yesterday afternoon, explosively deepening into a top-end Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Sandy made landfall in Southeastern Cuba around 1 am EDT this morning near Santiago de Cuba, which experienced sustained winds of 78 mph, gusting to 114 mph. Winds at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba peaked at 58 mph, gusting to 72 mph, at 3 am local time this morning, and the base received 3.51" of rain from Sandy as of 8 am EDT this morning. Punta Lucrecia, Cuba on the north coast of Cuba received 8.42" of rain from Sandy as of 8 am EDT. Cuban state media is reporting that one person was killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with thousands of homes damaged or destroyed. Damage was also substantial on Jamaica, where one person was killed, and power was knocked out for 70% of the island's residents. One death has been reported in Haiti due to flooding.

Sandy survived the crossing of Cuba's high mountains with its inner core relatively intact, and is now re-intensifying over the warm waters of the Central Bahama Islands. The latest 9:30 am center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 965 mb, down 3 mb in 1.5 hours. The eye is intermittently visible on satellite loops, and Sandy appears to be holding its own against the high 30 knots of wind shear affecting it.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy approaching landfall in Southeast Cuba as seen by Cuban radar at 10:15 pm EDT Wednesday, October 24, 2012. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Sandy.

Forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is expected to rise to 40 - 55 knots by Friday, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should disrupt Sandy's inner core and reduce the maximum winds. However, the trough will also inject energy into Sandy, and the hurricane's winds will spread out over a wider area of ocean, keeping the storm surge threat high. This large wind field will likely drive a storm surge of 5 - 8 feet in the Bahamas. Sandy will make its closest pass by Nassau around 8 am EDT Friday.

The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs are in substantial agreement for the next 3 days, but Sandy's future is as clear as mud after that. Sandy will continue to punish the Bahamas today and Friday, as it tracks north to north-northwest. Sandy will probably come close enough to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday afternoon to spread heavy rains to the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. However, the 4 - 6 day computer model forecasts for Sunday - Tuesday diverge widely. The GFS model, which has been one of our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks the past two years, has been very inconsistent with its handling of Sandy. Runs of the GFS model done 6 hours apart, at 8 pm last night and 2 am EDT this morning, were 300 miles apart in their position for Sandy on Tuesday, with the latest run predicting a landfall in Maine on Wednesday morning. On the other hand, the ECMWF model, our other top model for predicting hurricane tracks, has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy. The ECMWF model has Sandy hitting Delaware on Monday afternoon, the same forecast it has had for three consecutive runs. The other models tend to follow one extreme or the other, and NHC is picking a solution somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT Thursday all across the U.S., which should help this evening's model runs. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.


Figure 3. This Maximum Water Depth storm surge image for the Bahamas shows the worst-case inundation scenarios for a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, as predicted using dozens of runs of NOAA's SLOSH model. For example, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. No single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this image. Sandy's maximum storm surge may reach levels portrayed in this image for some islands in the Bahamas. See wunderground's storm surge pages for more storm surge info.

The Northeast U.S. scenario
If Sandy makes landfall farther to the north near Maine and Nova Scotia, heavy rains will be the main threat, since the cold waters will weaken the storm significantly before landfall. The trees have fewer leaves farther to the north, which will reduce the amount of tree damage and power failures compared to a more southerly track. However, given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S., Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This Northeast U.S. scenario would probably cause damages near $100 million dollars.

The mid-Atlantic U.S. scenario
Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey guys ..I'm on my phone and checking in quick..how is nc looking for the 12z runs
Quoting sunlinepr:


Sandy better start turning NNW soon or it will be a good bit east of the forecast cone.
Weather Channel was originally going to air this at 230PM today..It Could Happen Tomorrow

"New York City Hurricane Express"
A category 3 hurricane is headed for New York City, what catastrophic damage would this cause? Examine the very real possibilities of this devastating act of nature.

Hurricane Hunters is on till 4pm instead



Patrap and others who enjoy a good song...I kept thinking of this song while lurking, so here it is:
Link

Hint: IPANEMA
Quoting aspectre:
Look at what the CAT drug in...

...by the Zonicles, wouldn'tcha know

The top line is a forward straightline projection of Sandy's heading thru its 2 most recent position
Very funny... lol....

One of the ladies I work with is a Zonicle... I guess that's her ancestral home... lol... never actually been to Cat Island... which is about the only Bahamian island tall enough to "deflect" a storm with its "mountainous" terrain... lol...

[The highest point in the Bahamas, Mount Alvernia, is on Cat Island....]
Quoting AllStar17:


Sandy better start turning NNW soon or it will be a good bit east of the forecast cone.


The easterly path is more favorable.... if the GFS forecast is right, New York / Boston area should be doing serious preparations...

Hello everyone, first time poster but long-ish time lurker here, saying hello from Washington, DC. Kind of excited but nervous about Sandy and her effects here... I was also taken aback by the sheer size of her on the latest European run on the Wundermaps, a very big storm she is!

I don't know why many are just discussing "massive power outages". If some models are right, there will be more than just power outages, there will be structural damage too. I've seen just some silly gusty thunderstorms do structural damage up there. Hurricane force winds will rake parts of the region if we see a 930 to 940 mb storm. There will be significant wind damage in coastal areas, that I can almost assure you.

I'm still a bit confused by how the NHC handled Sandy last night though, it sounds like one forecaster concluded it should be upgraded to a major hurricane, while another came in and decided to be really conservative once again and cut the winds back to 110 officially. I really don't know why for sure, that's just speculation. Whatever the case, its strange.

I've honestly not seen the NHC behave that way with a hurricane like that before. They are usually ahead of the curve like with Charley and Wilma. I say this with caution, and I could be wrong, but at least from an outsider point of view, it seemed like they were being overly conservative and slow to react.


I won't continue to go on and on about it though. It's always easy to judge from the outside, therefore I will refrain from being too critical, because more than likely, I don't know what I'm talking about, I just couldn't help mention what it looks like to me.
510. DrewE
The Euro is showing snow as far south as northern NC and even up into Central VA. This is going to be quite interesting...am I wrong in saying that the general concensus is that this is going to make landfall in northern NJ instead of the Delmarva?
Quoting yonzabam:


Who's Tony?
A TS near the Azores
Quoting sunlinepr:


The easterly path is more favorable.... if the GFS forecast is right, New York / Boston area should be doing serious preparations...
But the wind field is expanding rapidly!!! you can feel it here in Miami,and looking at the Satellite presentation,so will see how big this storm will be once it makes it close approach to South Florida.
The way it is staggering and huge, Frankenstorm works well. I just hope it moves fast.

mojo, that is great advice.
Apart from sun lotion and bug spray, have just about got it. I don’t know what good advice there is for hurricanes where it snows, after the power goes out.

Quoting Broward:
Weather Channel was originally going to air this at 230PM today..

"New York City Hurricane Express" January 15, 2006
A category 3 hurricane is headed for New York City, what catastrophic damage would this cause? Examine the very real possibilities of this devastating act of nature.



NHC are predicting a borderline 75 mph hurricane impacting NYC on Tuesday morning. However, it will be a huge tropical/nor'easter hybrid, will be pushing a large wall of water and will dump more rain (and even snow) than Irene.

Just the sort of freak weather event that has been predicted to occur in a globally warming world, in fact.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I don't know why many are just discussing "massive power outages". If some models are right, there will be more than just power outages, there will be significant structural damage too. I've seen just some silly gusty thunderstorms do structural damage up there. Hurricane force winds will rake parts of the region if we see a 930 to 940 mb storm. There will be significant wind damage in coastal areas, that I can almost assure you.

I'm still a bit confused by how the NHC handled Sandy last night though, it sounds like one forecaster concluded it should be upgraded to a major hurricane, while another came in and decided to be really conservative once again and cut the winds back to 110 officially. I really don't know why for sure, that's just speculation. Whatever the case, its strange.

I've honestly not seen the NHC behave that way with a hurricane like that before. They are usually ahead of the curve like with Charley and Wilma. I say this with caution, and I could be wrong, but at least from an outsider point of view, it seemed like they were being overly conservative and slow to react.


I won't continue to go on and on about it though. It's always easy to judge from the outside, therefore I will refrain from being too critical, because more than likely, I don't know what I'm talking about, I just couldn't help mention what it looks like to me.

It wa a typo. The discussion below said Cat. 2 even though the winds were incorrectly typed at 115 mph. It was quickly corrected.
Quoting presslord:


and shrink wrap your potted shrubbery...


Oh! That's an interesting one. I always just bring my potted plants inside so they don't become projectiles.
Is Allan's site down?

I heard about some doom on the EURO and GFDL again.
Thanks Doc, excellent post today, as is your norm. Always talking weather in the house, with the kids often involved in the conversation. The BIG TOPIC this week is how will Halloween be affected. Difficult for a child to understand "Five days is difficult to forecast to say the least". Keeping our fingers crossed in Central NY.
P.S. Yes, I understand there are more serious concerns to millions of people in the next 5 days, but this is a concern to the little ones around here. Thanks everyone for all the info you all provide, love to cruise the blog daily. Have a good one everyone.
Quoting ThatGuyAgain:
Hello everyone, first time poster but long-ish time lurker here, saying hello from Washington, DC. Kind of excited but nervous about Sandy and her effects here... I was also taken aback by the sheer size of her on the latest European run on the Wundermaps, a very big storm she is!


Hello ThatGuy... Sandy will remain a large storm and her impacts could be spread out over a large area.

Good afternoon everyone.
Sandy, if anything, proves why naming 'winter storms' with a set list of names is boring.
Now, I'm not confusing the naming of tropical storms and winter storms, I'm making a more general point. Because the storm is named Sandy, tropically. But when the storm transitions into a extra-tropical low pressure on the backside there might be a horrific snowstorm, which may prompt using the "A" name for this storm from the list developed by The Weather Channel.

However, the storm has been coined "Frankenstorm" due to it's proximity on the calendar to Halloween and due to the multifaceted nature of what type of weather one may experience with this storm (hurricane-like on one side/winter-like on the other).

This is part of the charm of following the weather (despite the destruction inherent to these storms), when these kinds of storms roll around and yield their own names through their characteristics.

This is the main reason why I object to TWC's winter storm naming. "Frankenstorm" is a memorable name, as is "The Superstorm," "The Perfect Storm," "Snowmaggedon" "Blizzard of '88" etc. We all know what storm we're talking about when we utter such names. This naming process robs creativity and plain ol' weather lure. Forty years hence, it would be much more fulfilling to tell my grandkids I lived through "Frankenstorm" rather than "Athena."

Anyone else feel me on this?
On the EURO map this is down to hitting Maryland on the delmarva peninsula and going up the Chesapeake Bay.

930-940mbs
Once sandy makes her NE turn in the next 24hrs and is heading in the direction of the SC coast is there the possibility she will not turn back to the NE as soon as everyone thinks? Seems to me once she is heading that way that every single mile she goes NW is that much closer to the NC and OBX coast once she makes that turn back N/NE

PS: Im not wishing/predicting/hoping or anything else. I am trying to learn the scientific reasoning why she is going to do what she is expected to do :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is Allan's site down?

I heard about some doom on the EURO and GFDL again.

So I'm not the only one having trouble...
Quoting mojofearless:


Oh! That's an interesting one. I always just bring my potted plants inside so they don't become projectiles.


depends on how big those pots are ..lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
Very funny... lol....

One of the ladies I work with is a Zonicle... I guess that's her ancestral home... lol... never actually been to Cat Island... which is about the only Bahamian island tall enough to "deflect" a storm with its "mountainous" terrain... lol...

[The highest point in the Bahamas, Mount Alvernia, is on Cat Island....]



Weather has been deteriorating slowly throughout today here in Grand Bahama. How are you guys doing in Nassau?



nasty band heading toward Florida and where is the center?
Quoting floridastorm:
I don't see Sandy even moving an inch closer to Florida. When will the NNW to NW turn happen? I'm kind of beginning to think that we won't get much at all here in Florida...



Sandy has been bolting since Jamaica, moving 20mph now. That fast forward speed was not expected. I would not doubt your assessment however, The models listed on this page show it eventually getting back to where it was forecast to go yesterday. Seems the UKMET has been pretty spot on so far IMO, it was the only showing this exaggerated NE slide.

ECMWF has SIGNIFICANT snow for NC. WV. VA. KY. OH. TN. PA. MI. extreme NE GA. and extreme N SC

The only place garunteed to get heavy snow per the GFS and ECMWF is WV..Pennsylvania is your next best bet.

ECMWF targets mainly WV, NC, and VA

thats right NC included.

ECMWF still weakens this in Northern Virginia, much faster than any other model.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It wa a typo. The discussion below said Cat. 2 even though the winds were incorrectly typed at 115 mph. It was quickly corrected.



Oh ok, I wasn't aware, thanks
Afternoon San Juan NWS discussion talking about that strong line in Mona Passage.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASED AS HIGH AS 2.4 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WITH
700MB THETA-E VALUES REACHING 340K. IN ADDITION...TRAILING
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE
SANDY...WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...PROMISE TO BRING A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME THUNDERSTORM COULD BE STRONG. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLOODING IS THERE...AS THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. STAY TUNED FOR THE PRODUCTS ISSUE BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.


&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF T-STORMS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY EWD AND IT APPEARS IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. LATEST HI-RES NMM
SHOWS THE LINE ARRIVING INTO WRN PR TERMINALS AROUND 00Z AND MOVING
STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE REST OF PR DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING AROUND 06Z. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO AT JMZ AND JBQ WHERE
TSRA APPEARS LIKELY AND VCTS AT JPS AND JSJ WHERE TSRA SHOULD BE
MORE SCT AND NOT LIKELY. LLWS WILL BE CONCERN AT JBQ/JMZ AND JSJ
WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I must say for the sake of the Bahama residents, at least Sandy lost much of her structure and inner-core it seems. I'm sure this will come down by 5 PM but as always we'll have to wait until recon confirms anything new.

Not sure how much any fluctuation right now would have in the long run up the East Coast anyway because it just seems either way we are looking at a monster storm somewhere up the East coast whether it'd be the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast.
Winds are still around 100 mph with this storm, so it's much worse than Bahamians would have liked to have experienced...

The latest met office report said the worst has passed Acklins, Crooked Island, and Ragged Island, but they will continue to experience rain bands through the rest of the afternoon and evening. The forecaster is looking at the radar at the met office [not available on the internet ;o/, unfortunately] and saying they're seeing some strong echoes over Long Island, moving towards Rum Cay and Cat Island

Hmmm... wind shift reported in Central Long Island, along with serious damage to farms, sea flooding in the coastal roads, and high winds are still being experienced in the northern part of the island.
Quoting yonzabam:


NHC are predicting a borderline 75 mph hurricane impacting NYC on Tuesday morning. However, it will be a huge tropical/nor'easter hybrid, will be pushing a large wall of water and will dump more rain (and even snow) than Irene.

Just the sort of freak weather event that has been predicted to occur in a globally warming world, in fact.



faster and faster


Good list that mojofearless listed. To that I would add: make sure you are caught up on your laundry. Kinda hard to get it done once the power is out!
Quoting wxchaser97:

So I'm not the only one having trouble...


The AmericanWxForums posted on Facebook that they are restarting their server right now.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF has SIGNIFICANT snow for NC. WV. VA. KY. OH. TN. PA. MI. extreme NE GA. and extreme N SC

The only place garunteed to get heavy snow per the GFS and ECMWF is WV..Pennsylvania is your next best bet.

ECMWF targets mainly WV, NC, and VA

thats right NC included.

Hey, I'm in for snow early this year. But we would also be getting wind from Sandy. My local forecast on Sunday will be difficult in the short term.
Currently where I am we are seeing thunderstorms and have been for hours.



The system that generated this complex is the one that is supposed to merge with Sandy.

The T-storms around here were pretty strong, so this system has quite a bit of energy to deliver to Sandy when they merge over NE.

NOW:



FUTURE:

Quoting zoomiami:


Moving in or moving out?


When you do one, don't you always do the other...unless you are homeless?

We talk about power outage, because power goes out for alot more people than get hit by the hurricane wind field. The folks inside don't get power either AND they have more damage.

I didn't know about the dog bites before or the walls.
Quoting air360:
Once sandy makes her NE turn in the next 24hrs and is heading in the direction of the SC coast is there the possibility she will not turn back to the NE as soon as everyone thinks? Seems to me once she is heading that way that every single mile she goes NW is that much closer to the NC and OBX coast once she makes that turn back N/NE

PS: Im not wishing/predicting/hoping or anything else. I am trying to learn the scientific reasoning why she is going to do what she is expected to do :)


Not really. When troughs and ridges are actors in the play, the NHC forecast can usually be relied upon. They've gotten very good with their track forecasts in recent years.

It's only really in situations where the steering currents are weak and the system is relatively undeveloped that they can get it wrong. SC is not going to get hit.
Quoting ThatGuyAgain:


The AmericanWxForums posted on Facebook that they are restarting their server right now.

Thanks, I just saw that.
Quoting biff4ugo:
The way it is staggering and huge, Frankenstorm works well. I just hope it moves fast.

mojo, that is great advice.
Apart from sun lotion and bug spray, have just about got it. I don’t know what good advice there is for hurricanes where it snows, after the power goes out.



Actually, there are inexpensive heater attachments for propane bottles, generally available in the camping section of sporting goods stores. We have one of those in case the power ever goes out during freezing weather - which isn't really a concern here in NOLA, but still...
I'd have to say the ECMWF snow is very impressive, i suppose virginia and north carolina are the most populous areas to get snow.

The blizzard nd rain part is also VERY impressive, high winds in delaware maryland and virginia and surrounding areas, as this plows ashore with 940mb pressures.
Something tells me thats overdone.
The only thing different is the ECMWF kills this before the great lakes like a TC, and no other model does it that fast.
But then again no other model goes so straight into MD
They are playing "Til the Storm Passes Over" on the radio... the churchgoing people will know what I'm talking about... lol

Quoting sunlinepr:


Hope this doesn't reprint the graphic. This graphic is awesome. I see how the systems could interact, sucking in all the northerly moisture and blending. I don't think I've ever seen such a scary picture. Thanks for posting it.
I just spoke with my relative in Santiago de Cuba and they said that the city has been seriously damage. Hundreds of houses are partially o completely destroyed. The city is almost without electricity. Neither Flora did so much damage. God help them.
Quoting biff4ugo:


When you do one, don't you always do the other...unless you are homeless?

We talk about power outage, because power goes out for alot more people than get hit by the hurricane wind field. The folks inside don't get power either AND they have more damage.

I didn't know about the dog bites before or the walls.


Yep, three different people in my mother's neighborhood were bit by three different dogs in the first 24 hours after Hurricane Ivan. And we had packs roaming the streets in very short order after Katrina. Walk tall. Carry a big stick. Literally.
Please disregard the original post here, poster (me)had a MAJOR brain-fart...LMAO
The DGEX model has snowmageddon for nc, va, dc, md and sc..
550. GGNC
Quoting air360:
Once sandy makes her NE turn in the next 24hrs and is heading in the direction of the SC coast is there the possibility she will not turn back to the NE as soon as everyone thinks? Seems to me once she is heading that way that every single mile she goes NW is that much closer to the NC and OBX coast once she makes that turn back N/NE

PS: Im not wishing/predicting/hoping or anything else. I am trying to learn the scientific reasoning why she is going to do what she is expected to do :)


I'm in the same boat with you. For all the hypotheticals floating around and discussion of the longer range forecasts for the NE coast on Monday and the short term discussion about what is happening with Sandy right now, it's unsettling to have such a large area of disturbed weather directly to the south of the NC coast, moving northward. Ironically, it seems like the one thing that people agree on (or at least haven't really discussed) is this inferred NE curve out to sea, then back NW before landfall.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Hey, I'm in for snow early this year. But we would also be getting wind from Sandy. My local forecast on Sunday will be difficult in the short term.


If the Euro verifies yes.

Im just amazed at the amount of snow it puts into the west/northern half of NC, and in VA, and that the snow reaches into TN and barely into the NE GA mountains.
Quoting ncstorm:
The DGEX model has snowmageddon for nc, va, dc, md and sc..


SC too?
The ECMWF barely puts snow in SC
Gettin some rain here...

Did any one notice the BLOB East of Lesser Antilles ? Any development ?
Quoting presslord:
Snowcane!


no DOOMCane...LMAO
Quoting Jarhead6012:
I have a question, IF this monster hits on Tuesday, that is Election day, will they postpone the election in the affected areas until the storm passes??


In the USA, election day is 6 Nov...
30 October is just the day before Halloween (though early voters might be voting!)...
LOL!
But, if you are somewhere else- maybe you do have anelection day on 30 October... so check with your local supervisor of elections...
Quoting jcpoulard:
Did any one notice the BLOB East of Lesser Antilles ? Any development ?


I dont know,


really expanding over Florida
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


If the Euro verifies yes.

Im just amazed at the amount of snow it puts into the west/northern half of NC, and in VA, and that the snow reaches into TN and barely into the NE GA mountains.

If the GFS verifies I would still see some snow, probably not as much though. If we(eastern US) get a major snowstorm out of Sandy on Halloween it will be crazy.
Sandy has a thing for triangles I believe...


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Sandy has a thing for triangles I believe...



She is near the Bermuda triangle so she may be trying to fit in.
They're already starting to lose trees in Cat Island.

Here in Nassau winds strengthening, but rain is not very hard right now.

Men from Mangrove Cay Andros who went sponging in the Gold Cay area last week have not returned. I sure they have hunkered down where they are.

Yep, that is "Larry" (sandy's companion low) heading for Puerto Rico, and he looks mean!
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:


In the USA, election day is 6 Nov...
30 October is just the day before Halloween (though early voters might be voting!)...
LOL!
But, if you are somewhere else- maybe you do have anelection day on 30 October... so check with your local supervisor of elections...


yea I had a brainfart...have election on the mind syndrome...LOL
I am SURE I will have to eat some crow on that post for a while now...DOH!!!!!
Moving NW now?? or NNW??

How big is Sandy's rain field compared to, say, Katrina?
With the continuos south wind here on Provo, the storm surge on the South side is up to some houses now.
Quoting hydrus:


It looks like the moisture is slowly wrapping around the system.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


SC too?
The ECMWF barely puts snow in SC
I

Yep
Quoting ncstorm:
The DGEX model has snowmageddon for nc, va, dc, md and sc..

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Moving NW now?? or NNW??



It looks like its zigzagging around a bit
Quoting jcpoulard:
Did any one notice the BLOB East of Lesser Antilles ? Any development ?
I have been watching it but IDK about chances for development.
Quoting icmoore:
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">


So when is the area extent of Sandy going to start being compared to Typhoon Tip? Because she is a a beast!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



faster and faster


OMG...Al gore was right! Is it going to be like the movie"The Day After" LOL Give it a rest.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



That is just crazy.... I cannot fathom widespread damage coated with snow. It would be cool if it panned out for me here in Central VA, but could do without the Euro... that is an absolute worst case scenario for us.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Thank u TA
tropical nor'easter frankenstorm

.
Quoting WarEagle8:
Patrap and others who enjoy a good song...I kept thinking of this song while lurking, so here it is:
Link

Hint: IPANEMA
Is this girl from Ipanema? 'cause I've been listening to this all week...

Quoting clickBOOM:



Weather has been deteriorating slowly throughout today here in Grand Bahama. How are you guys doing in Nassau?
Hey, click... we're starting to get the tropical storm winds consistently here, but it's not raining right now... I expect that to change as the evening progresses...


Quoting Broward:



nasty band heading toward Florida and where is the center?
It's in between Exuma, Long Island, and Cat Island, headed for Cat Island.


Quoting baulas:
Good list that mojofearless listed. To that I would add: make sure you are caught up on your laundry. Kinda hard to get it done once the power is out!
Don't I know it... this was my Laundry weekend, and I didn't have a chance to do anything about it before now...

Quoting jcpoulard:
Did any one notice the BLOB East of Lesser Antilles ? Any development ?
Hello, JC... Glad to see you here. How have people in the Port-au-Prince area fared so far with Sandy?
Quoting jcpoulard:
Did any one notice the BLOB East of Lesser Antilles ? Any development ?


You talking abou the one halfway between the CV islands and the Antilles? That's the only one that's actually persisted any, so it may have a chance if it gets some spin going. But Sandy's just getting larger and larger until nothing in this hemisphere can develop haha. Maybe once she is gone, and if it is still around, it could spin up in the Caribbean. That area is even less user-friendly at this time of year.

That's just my blobservation.

Apart from Sandy, who is taking punches to the face from dry air like a champ, I see that Tony is still trying desperately to cling to its tropical characteristics. I think that he was stronger than the NHC said he was, possibly 55 kt at one point, maybe a bit more.
Quoting Broward:


really expanding over Florida
Looks like some dry air got in and a blob of convection to the east zoomed away from core. This is her last chance to strengthen...lets see what happens
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Katrina was a pussy when it comes to rainfield.

This one definatley has it bigger.

Absolutely not true. Much of what's shown on the satellite is high clouds, with very little rain away from the center of Sandy. Katrina's rain field was larger and more intense. Some of these comparisons are bordering on the ridiculous.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



That would be insane - that is all the way down to the coast!
Quoting sar2401:

Absolutely not true. Much of what's shown on the satellite is high clouds, with very little rain away from the center of Sandy. Katrina's rain field was larger and more intense. Some of these comparisons are bordering on the ridiculous.


How do you know? The clouds look quite deep far away from the center. As far as I know there are no radars in the middle of the ocean...
Dont forget our high def satellite site:

Link
Quoting BahaHurican:Hey, click... we're starting to get the tropical storm winds consistently here, but it's not raining right now... I expect that to change as the evening progresses...


Yeah that should change for you guys pretty soon. Stay safe.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Moving NW now?? or NNW??

I believe you are right,you can see the flatenning of the clouds all the way up,like the High pressure in top pushing down a bit making Sandy to flatten and making a turn to the NNW or NW.
596. BDAwx
Need radar where there isn't one? Here's an ok estimate.
Did someone upset Sandy or something? with the centre fixed in the Bahamas region its tossing moister to Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti/Dominica republic, Puerto Rico, Florida as if to say. "everyone must get a piece of me before I leave lol"
The mid-level vorticity over western Cuba, I believe help push this a little more northerly than some anticipated. Although to me it looks like it is responsible for pulling some of the mid level energy over south Fl. Noticed this looking at the radar out of Miami and Key W as the rain seems to be circulating around a center somewhere just N, of western Cuba. Can see on various Satellites also. Oh well that my 2 cents. And oh just in case no on e mentioned it look out up north. Preparation and safety first you'll Yankees.
Quoting Josihua2:
Did someone upset Sandy or something? with the centre fixed in the Bahamas region its tossing moister to Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti/Dominica republic, Puerto Rico, Florida as if to say. "everyone must get a piece of me before I leave lol"


AGW pissed her off
Quoting ILwthrfan:


So when is the area extent of Sandy going to start being compared to Typhoon Tip? Because she is a a beast!
Right Now:





See for yourself.
601. BDAwx
Also, looks like a small relatively dry trough south of Cuba/over the Cayman islands is doing a mini-fujiwhara with Sandy causing it to turn a hair to the left. Perhaps a remnant of the front that was north of the Bahamas when Sandy was forming in the Caribbean?
Quoting tropicfreak:


How do you know? The clouds look quite deep far away from the center. As far as I know there are no radars in the middle of the ocean...

Look at the cloud top temperatures. Those do show up on satellite. Powerful storms like Sandy tend to have huge cloud fields, caused by blow off from all the convection. She's like a big thunderstorm in this regard. If you check the rain totals in Jamaica and Cuba, which are much closer to Sandy's center, you'll find them moderate at best. Clouds hundreds of miles away are unlikely to be producing more rain than those near the center of the storm.
Sandy's location is another "col" type area, but unfortunately for this system, there's not much in the way of mountains to help it build... a good thing for the Bahamas.

In Exuma, three houses have lost their roofs, and aside from one closed road in the Rolletown area [due to flooding] conditions are not too bad there.

18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 000 TILL 84


a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
The official forecast may need to be moved east some in the 2-3 day timeframe.

18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 000 TILL 84


Quoting Thrawst:
.
Have you taken any pics today?

12z runs in good agreement for Superstorm Sandy

12z Euro...931mbs
12z GFS...936mbs (941mbs on Huffman's site)
12z GFDL...925mbs
12z CMC...938mbs (935 on the 00z)
12z UKMET...945mbs
12z NOGAPS...963mbs (961 on the 00z)...considering the NOGAPS low res, this is probably sub 950mbs.

That is a 5 model consensus on a storm going under 945mbs in October off the East coast, in less than 5 days. The only global model outlier was the HWRF which kept it in the 950s because it didn't hook the storm back in to the east coast. Regardless, the modeled event has probably never happened before for this time of year. A sub 945mb storm off the East Coast in October is incredibly rare and likely the lowest pressure ever for an extratropical/subtropical storm in this region of the world in October. As Levi put it, this would redefine the 'Perfect Storm'.


It is 4 days out though, so there's room for model error.
Quoting TomTaylor:
12z runs in good agreement for Superstorm Sandy

12z Euro...932mbs
12z GFS...941mbs
12z GFDL...925mbs
12z CMC...939mbs
12z UKMET...945mbs

That's a 5 model consensus on a storm going under 945mbs in October off the East coast, in less than 5 days. The only global model outlier was the HWRF which kept it in the 950s because it didn't hook the storm back in to the east coast. Regardless, the modeled event has probably never happened before for this time of year. A sub 945mb storm off the East Coast in October is incredibly rare and likely the lowest pressure ever for an extratropical/subtropical storm in this region of the world in October. As Levi put it, this would redefine the 'Perfect Storm'.


It is 4 days out though, so there's room for model error.


Probably WAY overdone.
18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 000 TILL 84


Recon is about to leave. My guess is that if nothing changes they'll find about a 90mph storm.
Quoting AllStar17:


Probably WAY overdone.

I don't understand where everybody is getting this from. You guys realize it is already a sub-965 millibar tropical cyclone, right? And you realize that it's in an extreme baroclinic zone meaning that, while the winds will gradually decrease, the pressure will also rapidly fall. There is no reason to suggest that this won't deepen below 950 millibars before landfall. Sandy will not be a typical hurricane by then, and it will not have the winds that a storm of that pressure would normally have, but that doesn't mean it won't be extremely dangerous and destructive.
What is the Nam doing???

18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 018 TILL 84


Now going NW i say
618. wpb
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Recon is about to leave. My guess is that if nothing changes they'll find about a 90mph storm.
next recon taking off now. a nooa p3 laer today too
18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 024 TILL 84


Quoting AllStar17:


Probably WAY overdone.


Not really, as the cyclone is already sub-960mb. Cyclone's don't suddenly die off and 1000mb+ systems when they go extra-tropical. They expand their wind field and allow baroclinic forces to fuel them instead of tropical. There is not much difference between the two, other than one is cold core, and one isn't.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't understand where everybody is getting this from. You guys realize it is already a sub-960 millibar tropical cyclone, right? And you realize that it's in an extreme baroclinic zone meaning that, while the winds will gradually decrease, the pressure will also rapidly fall. There is no reason to suggest that this won't deepen below 950 millibars before landfall. Sandy will not be a typical hurricane by then, and it will not have the winds that a storm of that pressure would normally have, but that doesn't mean it won't be extremely dangerous and destructive.


However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.

Jeff Masters
I really hope the people in Vermont are paying attention to this Sandy. I don't want to see a repeat.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Now going NW i say


Looks N to me.
Seriously though, which model is the best at tracking 4-5 days out because that is about when landfall will be.

According to the plot here:

Link

The ECMWF is best until 4 days out followed by GFS, UKMET and then GFDL. At 5 days, UKMET was the best followed by ECMWF, GFS, HWRF and then GFDL.

It would seem to me that using GFDL to predict landfall 5 days out would be unwise. I am still unsure how to gather the ECMWF track. UKMET has this hitting Maine. GFS has it hitting CT. HWRF has it going out to sea. GFDL has it hitting NJ. The 5 day forecast has it landing just south of NYC. I don't get that. I would think Maine is more likely than NJ. The GFS track would seem to be the middle ground here. My gut, after look at all of these tracks, says cape cod.
Hard to tell if it's actually moving NW now or if it's just an illusion caused by building convection in the NW quad. I'd say it's on a heading of 345 degrees or so right now.

18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 036 TILL 84


India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
20:30 PM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved westward and now lays near 9.5N 51.0E or near Somalia coast. The cyclone is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 9.0N and 9.5N between 18:00 and 21:00 PM UTC, today.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Murjan is T2.5 Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 6.0N to 11.5N and to the west of 54.0E and Somalia. Convection has split, indicating disorganization and weakening of the system. The cloud top temperature due to convection is in increasing trend between -50 to -60C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the cyclone is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea around the center of the cyclone is high.

At 15:00 PM UTC, Socotra Island, Yemen reported a 1008 hPa mean sea level pressure and 20 knots wind.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28º c. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 16.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence as well as lower level relative vorticity and upper level divergence show no significant change during past six hrs. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPA levels is moderate (05-15 knots) around system center and there has been fall in wind shear by 5-10 knots. The system is interacting with land surface.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
9 HRS: 8.8N 49.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS: 7.8N 47.5E - Low Pressure Area
Quoting AllStar17:


Probably WAY overdone.
Given a 5 model consensus and a strong divergent baroclinic zone developing aloft, probably not.

ECMWF and GFDL are probably overdone. But I do fully expect this to get in the zone of 945-950mbs, getting to 940-945 wouldn't be a surprise, though I will wait until we get closer in time to be fully on board with that solution.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 26 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 14.6N 116.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.2N 111.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.7N 106.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 18.9N 102.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Now going NW i say


Still going north, I don't understand why you want a storm so bad in your area.
Quoting Patrap:
Ridin' The Storm Out
REO is KSHE's Rocktober featured artist today! We've hit 80, winds the same, pressure down slighlty (29.79) and dew point up slightly. Looking at satellite, appears a second line forming ahead of main line. Edit: Guess what they just played!
Quoting AllStar17:


However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.

Jeff Masters


At the time the doc posted that, the GFS/CMC/NOGAPS/UKMET hadn't jumped on board with the situation. The 12z did. The ECMWF is wrong with how intense it's thinking it will get, but these things can go 940mb if they have the right conditions. You simply cannot ignore the models when they have a good agreement like that on this system. This will be a very powerful system.
Sorry, models are still computers...and computers predicting something still 4-5 days away. Just wait and calm down.
Gusty winds 30mph, gusting to 45mph heavy rain, are entering western Puerto Rico as Sandy's baby(Tail) crosses our area...
Quoting dayrongarcia:


Still going north, I don't understand why you want a storm so bad in your area.


Where the heck did you get the idea that he wanted to have the storm hit him based on that post?
636. mati
I'm flying to san Juan tomorrow morning, cross yer fingers for me :)
Jeff Masters quoted in article

East Coast braces for '$1B' storm as Hurricane Sandy barrels through Bahamas


“We are taking the forecast seriously."
- Laura Southard, Virginia Department of Emergency Management

So, hypothetically speaking, say you lived in MA and had an early morning flight out of Boston on Monday that stopped in Baltimore on the way to a vacation in Jamaica. Changing the flight to Sunday would cost an extra $700. What would you do???

Sigh - I love a good storm, but I'd rather be in Jamaica next week and not ruin my vacation. You think it will have Baltimore and Boston shut down by Monday morning or will we make it out in time?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Where the heck did you get the idea that he wanted to have the storm hit him based on that post?


From all his previous posts. According to him the storm has been taking a NW turn since Jamaica, plus he only posts the models closest to Florida? You don't need to be a rocket scientists to connect the dots.
Quoting Skyhawk85U:
So, hypothetically speaking, say you lived in MA and had an early morning flight out of Boston on Monday that stopped in Baltimore on the way to a vacation in Jamaica. Changing the flight to Sunday would cost an extra $700. What would you do???

Sigh - I love a good storm, but I'd rather be in Jamaica next week and not ruin my vacation. You think it will have Baltimore and Boston shut down by Monday morning or will we make it out in time?


I think you'll be OK, getting out in the nick of time.
Quoting dayrongarcia:


From all his previous posts. According to him the storm has been taking a NW turn since Jamaica, plus he only posts the models closest to Florida? You don't need to be a rocket scientists to connect the dots.


And what if he does? He has the right. This is a blog, not a meteorological organization.
643. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't understand where everybody is getting this from. You guys realize it is already a sub-965 millibar tropical cyclone, right? And you realize that it's in an extreme baroclinic zone meaning that, while the winds will gradually decrease, the pressure will also rapidly fall. There is no reason to suggest that this won't deepen below 950 millibars before landfall. Sandy will not be a typical hurricane by then, and it will not have the winds that a storm of that pressure would normally have, but that doesn't mean it won't be extremely dangerous and destructive.


The extreme baroclinicity won't occur until Sandy mixes it up with -20C mid-level temps with the next trough over the NE while Sandy still holds on to warm core characteristics. Possibly beginning on Sunday into Tuesday.
Quoting AllStar17:
Sorry, models are still computers...and computers predicting something still 4-5 days away. Just wait and calm down.

It's hard to stay calm when we could be looking at a storm that redefines the name "perfect storm". Just sayin'.
18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 048 TILL 84


Baha, Diane Krall does several versions of that song... the Rio version is more bossa nova, the Spain version has some very nice bass play.

Mannn, I have a protest to attend in awhile, lordy are we going to get wet. We are protesting the unnatural Okeechobee Lake discharges that have killed our St. Lucie estuary. We really really really need Sandy's precip to stay offshore..

Peace
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's hard to stay calm when we could be looking at a storm that redefines the name "perfect storm". Just sayin'.


or, maybe, not...just sayin'
Quoting presslord:


or, maybe, not...just sayin'

The advisory is out. Just sayin'

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY NEAR CAT ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...WIND FIELD EXPANDING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
500 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012

...TONY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 34.0W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 054 TILL 84


Quoting TomTaylor:
12z runs in good agreement for Superstorm Sandy

12z Euro...932mbs
12z GFS...941mbs
12z GFDL...925mbs
12z CMC...939mbs
12z UKMET...945mbs

That is a 5 model consensus on a storm going under 945mbs in October off the East coast, in less than 5 days. The only global model outlier was the HWRF which kept it in the 950s because it didn't hook the storm back in to the east coast. Regardless, the modeled event has probably never happened before for this time of year. A sub 945mb storm off the East Coast in October is incredibly rare and likely the lowest pressure ever for an extratropical/subtropical storm in this region of the world in October. As Levi put it, this would redefine the 'Perfect Storm'.


It is 4 days out though, so there's room for model error.



Just an FYI. The 1991 Perfect Storm had pressure reading of 972mb.
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRUCTURAL CHANGES ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING WITH SANDY. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR WESTERN CUBA ARE
IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE
OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE STILL 109 KT AT THE END OF THE
LAST MISSION AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS AT 963 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME DECREASE IN
THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
SANDY BECOMES MORE ENTANGLED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SANDY REMAINING A VERY DEEP CYCLONE AND THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDING DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AS SANDY DEEPENS AGAIN OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
REGARDLESS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE CYCLONE AT OR NEAR
HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/17...AS SANDY HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE UPPER LOW. THE REASONING FOR THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. SANDY WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THEN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS NOW SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO SANDY INTERACTING
WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS INTERACTION...AS THE ECMWF HAS
SANDY FARTHER WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE SOONER
RELATIVE TO MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A WIDER
TURN AND A TRACK FARTHER NORTH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT IS
LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF SANDY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 24.5N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 26.0N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 77.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 29.8N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 33.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 37.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 40.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't understand where everybody is getting this from. You guys realize it is already a sub-965 millibar tropical cyclone, right? And you realize that it's in an extreme baroclinic zone meaning that, while the winds will gradually decrease, the pressure will also rapidly fall. There is no reason to suggest that this won't deepen below 950 millibars before landfall. Sandy will not be a typical hurricane by then, and it will not have the winds that a storm of that pressure would normally have, but that doesn't mean it won't be extremely dangerous and destructive.


we are talking about a storm with
Winds of a hurricane category 1 with pressure of category 3 ...and a 1 1/2 more big than the state of texas
18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 060 TILL 84


646. Wow, what an impressive and intelligent comment. How long did it take you to think of that?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 26 2012
====================================

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
20:30 PM IST October 25 2012
========================================





not being mean or anything but i love how you post this up knowing everyone here is 99.9% focused on sandy in the Atlantic. but good looking out elsewhere tho!
(y)
seems like we're having a "Once every 100 Years" weather event about once a month....
Quoting indianrivguy:
Baha, Diane Krall does several versions of that song... the Rio version is more bossa nova, the Spain version has some very nice bass play.

Mannn, I have a protest to attend in awhile, lordy are we going to get wet. We are protesting the unnatural Okeechobee Lake discharges that have killed our St. Lucie estuary. We really really really need Sandy's precip to stay offshore..

Peace


I hope you brought a boat or at least a floatation device with you.
A barometric pressure below 950 is not out of the question with this storm as it approaches the NE coast

Quoting CybrTeddy:
646. Wow, what an impressive and intelligent comment. How long did it take you to think of that? I'm impressed.
Admin removed it already
Quoting presslord:
seems like we're having a "Once every 100 Years" weather event about once a month....


At least it isn't the once in a 10,000 year events... Those are much worse.
Quoting Josihua2:
Not sure what you are talking about Josi........But my ex was very good looking
Quoting Grothar:
A barometric pressure below 950 is not out of the question with this storm as it approaches the NE coast

lmao at the BAMD! they saying forget the mid atlantic its going to NC. LOL
Hopefully the new radiosondes readings will help with the models...

Quoting TomTaylor:
12z runs in good agreement for Superstorm Sandy

12z Euro...932mbs
12z GFS...941mbs
12z GFDL...925mbs
12z CMC...939mbs
12z UKMET...945mbs

That is a 5 model consensus on a storm going under 945mbs in October off the East coast, in less than 5 days. The only global model outlier was the HWRF which kept it in the 950s because it didn't hook the storm back in to the east coast. Regardless, the modeled event has probably never happened before for this time of year. A sub 945mb storm off the East Coast in October is incredibly rare and likely the lowest pressure ever for an extratropical/subtropical storm in this region of the world in October. As Levi put it, this would redefine the 'Perfect Storm'.


It is 4 days out though, so there's room for model error.

I was quite skeptical at first, and still am to a degree, but that is a pretty good model consensus, which is amazing when they are all so low. Oh, and the 12Z GFS went lower than you have listed from what I see.

Quoting presslord:
seems like we're having a "Once every 100 Years" weather event about once a month....
I wouldn't worry about it; it's just coincidence. Yep, nothing but coincidence...
Buoy plot off of Jacksonville- Keep in mind this buoy is over 400 miles from the center. It is also registering 10 ft seas already.

Quoting Josihua2:


Simply put, because this is a worldwide tropical weather blog and some of us have already had relatives in Mindanao affected by Tropical Storm Son-Tinh.

Good afternoon. Key West is being lashed by winds and rain. We had to cancel Pretenders today. The risk on the stage right by the water is just too dangerous for people. The wind is coming in off the bay right across the stage. I know Miami must be getting hit as well. Everyone stay safe.
Quoting Grothar:
A barometric pressure below 950 is not out of the question with this storm as it approaches the NE coast



Who made the BAMD mad at North Carolina? With hurricanes and other stronger tropical systems its not normally that much of an outlier from the other guidance.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I was quite skeptical at first, and still am to a degree, but that is a pretty good model consensus, which is amazing when they are all so low. Oh, and the 12Z GFS went lower than you have listed from what I see.


What website is that model from?
Quoting Neapolitan:
I wouldn't worry about it; it's just coincidence. Yep, nothing but coincidence...


Is that what they call AGW now?
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon. Key West is being lashed by winds and rain. We had to cancel Pretenders today. The risk on the stage right by the water is just too dangerous for people. The wind is coming in off the bay right across the stage. I know Miami must be getting hit as well. Everyone stay safe.
Not a very good day for Fantasies
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon. Key West is being lashed by winds and rain. We had to cancel Pretenders today. The risk on the stage right by the water is just too dangerous for people. The wind is coming in off the bay right across the stage. I know Miami must be getting hit as well. Everyone stay safe.


Yes, we are getting bursts of rain and wind here in South Miami-Dade.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I wouldn't worry about it; it's just coincidence. Yep, nothing but coincidence...


If you consider how big the earth is and how many defined locations there are with historic weather records its not at all surprising really is it?
What does the current forecast cone look like? I haven't seen it in a while.

Are the models mostly in agreement that it's going to be further east than expected? That's what I gather from reading the forum so far, but I'm no expert.
Quoting CothranRoss:

What website is that model from?

Weather Bell, but I don't have access to those models, so I vultured it off of Ryan Maue's twitter page.
Quoting Losttsol:


I think you'll be OK, getting out in the nick of time.


Thanks - that's what it was looking like to me so far but I'm really a novice at this weather. Kind of a junkie when it comes to big storms, and I'm a private pilot so I have some weather training, but I haven't gotten this far into the technical stuff before. Really interesting reading all the comments on here.
It looks like the eye is approaching southern Cat Island, and based on the previously forecast motion should be moving along the eastern coast of that island by now...
Was trying to link the cone for you... for some reason I am not getting the right link to copy..

www.nhc.noaa.gov has the cones...
The ULL to WSW of Patty seems to be pumping dry air to the south a bit...The ULL is getting stronger could bring it closer to the florida coast...
18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 072 TILL 84


Quoting Skyhawk85U:
So, hypothetically speaking, say you lived in MA and had an early morning flight out of Boston on Monday that stopped in Baltimore on the way to a vacation in Jamaica. Changing the flight to Sunday would cost an extra $700. What would you do???

Sigh - I love a good storm, but I'd rather be in Jamaica next week and not ruin my vacation. You think it will have Baltimore and Boston shut down by Monday morning or will we make it out in time?


Check your airline, they may be offering "no fee" ticket changes.

Also keep in mind many airlines will get their planes out of harms way so expect many cancellations as they re-position them elsewhere. You'll be cutting it really close.
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Buoy plot off of Jacksonville- Keep in mind this buoy is over 400 miles from the center. It is also registering 10 ft seas already.

That's about the same as it is here in C IL ahead of the front. Except for the 10' seas of course!
18Z nam INIT 25 OCT hr 084 TILL 84


I'm getting off of work for the day and don't have the energy to read back through 600+ posts but I was curious what effect, if any, the shortwave moving through Wyoming may have on the setup downstream, if any.

Link
FRANKENSTORM! The East coast Halloween trick. Peolple are gonna remember this one!
Quoting bigwes6844:
lmao at the BAMD! they saying forget the mid atlantic its going to NC. LOL


The BAM models are just single trajectory models. They are not really true track forecast models. That is why they are normally quite different than the other models.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And what if he does? He has the right. This is a blog, not a meteorological organization.


Likewise, he has the right to ask WHY he is wishcasting for his area.

Unless you are the blog police, in which case, I apologize officer CybrTeddy.

Barometric Pressure.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
FRANKENSTORM! The East coast Halloween trick. Peolple are gonna remember this one!


Hey, Doug. How come when I was saying it this morning at 6 AM everyone was laughing at me? Don't they take me seriously? :)
Unless you are the blog police, in which case, I apologize officer CybrTeddy.


Not Cyber. Taz is the blog cop.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Doug. How come when I was saying it this morning at 6 AM everyone was laughing at me? Don't they take me seriously? :)



Who knows?

I know I didn't make it up, but I like it and it fits!
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Doug. How come when I was saying it this morning at 6 AM everyone was laughing at me? Don't they take me seriously? :)
Gro......I never laugh at you.I was up at 4:30 am riding my bike........ I was too tired to laugh.....Thanks Gro..Just kidding..I love you Gro
Quoting violet312s:


Check your airline, they may be offering "no fee" ticket changes.

Also keep in mind many airlines will get their planes out of harms way so expect many cancellations as they re-position them elsewhere. You'll be cutting it really close.

Yeah, good points. I'm trying to get in touch with a real person at the airline now.

Look, I have to take the blame for all this. We've been to Brazil 3 times (my wife's home.) Every time we barely make it out during a blizzard or something strange. I think it's me.
Quoting Dakster:
Was trying to link the cone for you... for some reason I am not getting the right link to copy..

www.nhc.noaa.gov has the cones...


The cones shifted just a little west in the 5 PM run.
wind field expanding
Quoting aprinz1979:


Is that what they call AGW now?
Yes, but only if by "they" you mean "the scientifically illiterate". ;-)

Anyway, 2012 ACE as of the 5:00PM EDT TWO:

ACE

ACE
Is it analogous to consider consider late-forecast period Sandy like one of those majorly deep & strong storms that can sometimes form from Atlantic hurricanes as they approach western Europe? It seems to me like it's one of those, except moving northwest instead of northeast.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Gro......I never laugh at you.I was up at 4:30 am riding my bike........ I was too tired to laugh.....Thanks Gro..Just kidding..I love you Gro
I'm sure lots of parents freekin' out here in Palm Beach county with the school closings.........
Quoting Neapolitan:
I wouldn't worry about it; it's just coincidence. Yep, nothing but coincidence...
but remember a 1/100 year event is 1 kind of event that should happen in a particular place, so 1/100 year events happen a lot, just different kinds of disasters in different places.
Murjan....

...NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY...

(from HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012) Post 653
Quoting Methurricanes:
but remember a 1/100 year event is 1 kind of event that should happen in a particular place, so 1/100 year events happen a lot, just different kinds of disasters in different places.


So the research question becomes how many 1/100 year events have taken place in each year since say 1962?
Call it the Hallocane '12!!!
Quoting Grothar:


The BAM models are just single trajectory models. They are not really true track forecast models. That is why they are normally quite different than the other models.
yeah good word quite different!LOL
Quoting Grothar:


The cones shifted just a little west in the 5 PM run.


Woah, Gro, the beach at your site really doesn't look very welcoming right now.
Live stream cam
Pity, that there isn't a sound on this cam. Most be a real roar.
Quoting Chicklit:


So the research question becomes how many 1/100 year events have taken place in each year since say 1972?


It seems like every year we have a "1/100 year event."
Things are starting to change under there. This pass is almost dead even with the most recent sat frame.



Quoting weatherbro:
Call it the Hallocane!!!


LOL!

WunderGirl12
Quoting dayrongarcia:


Still going north, I don't understand why you want a storm so bad in your area.
This storm has been beating along, twisting from NE to NW [NNE / NNW] all along. The overall motion has been slightly east of N over the last 24 hours, but a shift towards the west is expected.

You need to relax.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The advisory is out. Just sayin'

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY NEAR CAT ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...WIND FIELD EXPANDING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
Interesting... it is wobbling to the west...
Quoting RitaEvac:




You gotta be kidding me, Sandy is going to be knocking on my front door on Tuesday at 2PM
Has anyone taken a look at the latest Marine Advisory on Sandy? It's calling for a 760-mi. gale diameter three days out (that's converted to statute miles). And it's supposed to grow larger after that!

This could give Igor a run for its money....
Quoting oracle28:


Likewise, he has the right to ask WHY he is wishcasting for his area.

Unless you are the blog police, in which case, I apologize officer CybrTeddy.

Barometric Pressure.


Well for one, it's rude and unnecessarily hostile to open up all guns and start claiming someone wants a bad hurricane to hit them.

And for two, I have yet to earn the blog cop badge ;)
Little update on things happening in Pennsylvania preparing for Sandy...
- PennDot (Pennsylvania Dept. of Transportation) is around cleaning out storm drains and is preparing salt just in case of snow
- The mayors of some small towns have said people have to take their halloween decorations inside
- Some towns are cancelling their trick or treat times
- I just went to a local store and the employees are stocking heavily on desired items.....
- Governor Tom Corbett is expected to release a statement talking about the state's preparations and prepardness
- Also Nuclear Stations along the Susquehanna River are going over their plans for a tropical system/Nor' Easter
Tropical Cyclone Murjan and Tropical Storm Son-tinh
Nasty weather in South dade, sheets of wind and rain while driving north on the turnpike.

Sorry for those closer to the storm, but glad we aren't getting more.
I've been hearing some reports locally that imply that the wind field is expanding; officials from both Bimini and Grand Bahama have reported TS strength winds and heavy rains in the last couple of hours. The guy from Bimini sounded particularly concerned. I guess the impacts were not expected.

Additionally, reports from Inagua suggest that while they definitely didn't get the worst of Sandy, it was obvious Sandy was still holding its own handily as it came off Cuba. They've been without power since this morning, and a confiscated craft has sunk near the entrance to the boat basin there...
Wowww!!!!!It's really expanding
Link
Maryland Prepardness Is in the link above.
Could the dry air maybe help separate Sandy from her Caribbean competition to the SE?

Quoting zoomiami:
Nasty weather in South dade, sheets of wind and rain while driving north on the turnpike.

Sorry for those closer to the storm, but glad we aren't getting more.
zoo............Hasn't been too bad at all just north of you.A few feeder bands but really not too much wind
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
zoo............Hasn't been too bad at all just north of you.A few feeder bands but really not too much wind


Suppose to be driving up to Port St. Lucy tomorrow afternoon -- hope the weather gets better. Will check in with you in the morning -- see how the conditions are.
Quoting barbamz:


Woah, Gro, the beach at your site really doesn't look very welcoming right now.
Live stream cam
Pity, that there isn't a sound on this cam. Most be a real roar.


We just took a walk on the beach. The winds are very strong and getting steadier.
Quoting Grothar:


We just took a walk on the beach. The winds are very strong and getting steadier.
take sum pics GRO!
Those of us in New York City and Long Island are bracing for the worst. We are rain deficient and nature always seems to create a balance when necessary, as dangerous as they may be. Please take in those Halloween decorations before they become flying missiles and brace yourself for the "Frankenstorm" of 2012!!
Winds are starting to pick up here... I'm starting to wonder how many pple out there who DIDn't batten up are wishing they did...

Maybe 1 in 10 or 11 people put up shutters this time, mainly ones who have premade or omnipresent ones. I have a feeling that not only did Nassuvians not expect a "real" hurricane, but they also are in large part suffering from "end of the month blues"... and payday is next week...
Quoting Methurricanes:
but remember a 1/100 year event is 1 kind of event that should happen in a particular place, so 1/100 year events happen a lot, just different kinds of disasters in different places.


It's probably just for public safety... winds gusting above 40 means falling palm fronds. That's a hazard! (Tongue only partially in cheek... falling big royal palm fronds can totally take you out)

what is locally considered a 1 in 100 year event is not the same as what is a 1 in 100 year event in the country, or the world. In the country it happens every year. And every month or day in the world.
We're all looking ahead to what's going to happen on the East Coast in the next few days, and understandably so, but let's not forget so quickly what happened to Cuba last night. Based on some of these pictures, and some reports I've read, the damage there—particularly in Santiago de Cuba—is immense.
Quoting bigwes6844:
take sum pics GRO!


I don't know how to upload them from my camera.
Quoting bigwes6844:
take sum pics GRO!

I may have just caught a picture of Gro and his significant other... ;-)

This could be a triple phaser!
Officials are still not sure how Sandy will react with this trough tonight. Even with the storm further east SEFL should remain vigilant overnight and tomorrow.

SANDY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A NORTH DIRECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOW
IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF
ENHANCED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. THE RAPID
REFRESH DOES INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THIS
TREND WILL NEED TO BARE WATCHING.
Quoting bayoubug:
The ULL to WSW of Patty seems to be pumping dry air to the south a bit...The ULL is getting stronger could bring it closer to the florida coast...
She's still alive?
Newly formed preline of front about to hit western edge of my county in C IL - quite a change coming! We hit 80 forecast low for tommorrow morning 37. Through next week - mid 50s highs, mid 30s, or lower, lows. Hope everyone in storms' path stays safe!
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 000 TILL 144


18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 006 TILL 144


Quoting TomTaylor:
Given a 5 model consensus and a strong divergent baroclinic zone developing aloft, probably not.

ECMWF and GFDL are probably overdone. But I do fully expect this to get in the zone of 945-950mbs, getting to 940-945 wouldn't be a surprise, though I will wait until we get closer in time to be fully on board with that solution.

That was my initially thinking too, Tom.
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 006 TILL 144


Quoting zoomiami:


Suppose to be driving up to Port St. Lucy tomorrow afternoon -- hope the weather gets better. Will check in with you in the morning -- see how the conditions are.
What time zoo.......? I hope to sleep late
Link
Massachusetts Emergency management website, for those in my area.

The Boston news just reported many folks are pulling their sailboats out of the Plymouth Bay in preparation of Sandy's arrival. Also, the Mets up here have been talking about the storm for the past two days, getting the word out.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Officials are still not sure how Sandy will react with this trough tonight. Even with the storm further east SEFL should remain vigilant overnight and tomorrow.

SANDY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A NORTH DIRECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOW
IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF
ENHANCED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. THE RAPID
REFRESH DOES INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THIS
TREND WILL NEED TO BARE WATCHING.
(heh heh heh)
Winds are still pretty unimpressive by west Nassau.. Max winds are probably up near 40mph. Pretty sure once the CDO slides over me, it will significantly increase.

I went in the ocean today with 2 other buddies bodysurfing the waves. There was no current because the bay protected the wind and the beach is not known to have rip currents.

Waves were running 7-10 feet, and the 10 footers were as time went by.

I'll keep you guys informed on when and if the winds start to intensify here.
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 012 TILL 144


Quoting Grothar:


We just took a walk on the beach. The winds are very strong and getting steadier.
Sand blasted?
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 018 TILL 144


Oh, and pressure is down to 995mbs here!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sand blasted?


sandy blasted. :o)
Just had gusts up to about 35-40mph in west boynton! very fast quick squall lasted bout 3 minutes or so and already calmed down.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 012 TILL 144




18Z GFS showing a lot closer approach to FL than the previous runs.
Quoting RickWPB:

I may have just caught a picture of Gro and his significant other... ;-)



Nice, except I don't have gray hair.:)

P.S. Someone just looked over my shoulder and said some nasty words in German.
Quoting Grothar:


We just took a walk on the beach. The winds are very strong and getting steadier.


Hmmmm, watching the cam right now I hope you'll find something left from your lovely beach tomorrow ... Heavy blow is coming in.
NWS Miami - South Florida
Point Forecast: Jupiter FL
26.94N 80.09W
Last Update: 5:32 pm EDT Oct 25, 2012
Forecast Valid: 6pm EDT Oct 25,

Friday-Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 84 by 9am, then falling to around 77 during the remainder of the day. North wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Night - Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Northwest wind 32 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


WHOAA, wonder why this went up so much for Jupiter?
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 024 TILL 144


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012

PRC001-013-017-027-039-054-055-059-065-073-075-08 1-091-093-101-107-
111-113-115-121-141-145-149-153-252215-
BARCELONETA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-GUANICA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-
HATILLO PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-LARES PR-MANATI PR-MARICAO PR-
MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-
UTUADO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-VILLALBA PR-YAUCO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-ARECIBO PR-
CAMUY PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
525 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012

AT 520 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING STEADILY EAST
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING OF WATER
OR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$



BCS
18z GFS is coming in now. 36 hours:

Media fatigue has already set in. One of my friends on fb said this: "I already know that I am not interested in either Hurricane Sandy or the "Frankenstorm." Is it OK if I just opt out?"

To which I replied, "Sure. But stock up on supplies just in case. Power could go out. :) "

I'm overseas right now, and I won't be back until after whatever happens happens, but I've been following it enough to know that it's a potential history maker. You don't just get to "opt out" of that.

I might add that said friend lives just SW of Philly...
@ ANDROSANN,

How are u guys faring? With the windfield expanding pretty much as predicted, most of North Andros could get the same kind of winds we get here in Nassau....
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 030 TILL 144


18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 036 TILL 144


Getting pretty windy here in Palm Beach county.......Thought I would take down my Christmas decorations.....Hoping I could make it another year.....Guess not, too windy ...Alas
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well for one, it's rude and unnecessarily hostile to open up all guns and start claiming someone wants a bad hurricane to hit them.

And for two, I have yet to earn the blog cop badge ;)


But, if someone is claiming a NW heading when it's really North, then isn't that inaccurate and worthy of correction, especially when combined with the other biases?
Quoting barbamz:


Hmmmm, watching the cam right now I hope you'll find something left from your lovely beach tomorrow ... Heavy blow is coming in.


It is the heaviest so far. The wind is really coming in hard now.
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 042 TILL 144


Latest microwave.

Looks like the GFS has been spending too much time around the NAM- 18z run is much tighter to the coast and slower.
Quoting Grothar:


It is the heaviest so far. The wind is really coming in hard now.


Grothar - are you getting blown hard now?

Winds calmed down here for the moment.
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 048 TILL 144


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 054 TILL 144


Quoting Thrawst:
Winds are still pretty unimpressive by west Nassau.. Max winds are probably up near 40mph. Pretty sure once the CDO slides over me, it will significantly increase.

I went in the ocean today with 2 other buddies bodysurfing the waves. There was no current because the bay protected the wind and the beach is not known to have rip currents.

Waves were running 7-10 feet, and the 10 footers were as time went by.

I'll keep you guys informed on when and if the winds start to intensify here.
I'm starting to see some 50+ mph gusts here...

Great... power just went out.... from one of those gusts, it seems. :o( Geez... and we are barely in the TS wind zone...

I have battery backup, but I want that to last as long as possible, so I'll get off now.

More later as Sandy progresses...

any ch we could see a massive snow storm for the E cost?
18Z gfs INIT 25 OCT hr 060 TILL 144


1 Min Visible and IR Rapid Scan is back:



Link



Link
new blog
We are getting some of the strongest winds today so far in Tavernier in the upper keys, 31 gusting to 37 but some gusts I swear are higher, boat is be bopping around in the slip alot more than for Issac got to be wind direction NE right now.
This is my forecast for Monday night:

Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Windy, with a northwest wind 30 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ ANDROSANN,

How are u guys faring? With the windfield expanding pretty much as predicted, most of North Andros could get the same kind of winds we get here in Nassau....


We are OK heavy rain squall passing through right now and a little wind, some trees have been reported down earlier but so far we have kept electricity and phones although cable was out most of the day but is back now.

I expect the worst that we will get will happen later this evening/tonight unless there is a significant shift to the west over the next few hours.
Ok... it just came back on... do you think they were giving us the heads up???

[I better go find my flashlight.... lol]
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm starting to see some 50+ mph gusts here...

Great... power just went out.... from one of those gusts, it seems. :o( Geez... and we are barely in the TS wind zone...

I have battery backup, but I want that to last as long as possible, so I'll get off now.

More later as Sandy progresses...



what are your thoughts on our maximum winds from this storm?
Quoting BahaHurican:
I've been hearing some reports locally that imply that the wind field is expanding; officials from both Bimini and Grand Bahama have reported TS strength winds and heavy rains in the last couple of hours. The guy from Bimini sounded particularly concerned. I guess the impacts were not expected.

Additionally, reports from Inagua suggest that while they definitely didn't get the worst of Sandy, it was obvious Sandy was still holding its own handily as it came off Cuba. They've been without power since this morning, and a confiscated craft has sunk near the entrance to the boat basin there...


We had a strong squall pass through GB about 30 minutes ago. It did not last long but it packed a good punch.
WOW WPB!!!!
Monday Night
Clear. Low of 45F. Breezy. Winds from the NW at 15 to 20 mph.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I was quite skeptical at first, and still am to a degree, but that is a pretty good model consensus, which is amazing when they are all so low. Oh, and the 12Z GFS went lower than you have listed from what I see.

Guess Maue's graphics for the GFS run at a higher resolution than Huffman's. Interestingly, I've noticed that Huffman's website offers a higher resolution output for the ECMWF, than Maue's (Huffman showed 931mb on the 12z ECMWF, Maue's showed 932).

And yea the model consensus is amazing. Likely overdone, but I have to wonder just how overdone it is with such a strong consensus.
681 BahaHurican: It looks like the eye is approaching southern Cat Island, and based on the previously forecast motion should be moving along the eastern coast of that island by now...

IF the most recent NHC.Advisory position was correct, H.Sandy had been moving on the western side of CatIsland(CAT) -- overrunning the southwestern tip and the northern island -- and should now be cruising along east of Eleuthera(ELH,GHB,RSD)

The bottom line marks the 6hour path between the 2 most recent ATCF positions
The top line marks the 3hour path between the most recent ATCF position and the most recent NHC.Advisory position

Considering the hurricane's recent travel curvature, I wouldn't be surprised if the next ATCF position shows Sandy's path passing over easternmost Eleuthera.
This thing literally stretches from Panama to North Carolina. Incredible

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.h tml
My community, Seaside Heights, New Jersey, which blog readers may know as the location where 'Jersey Shore' is filmed, is directly in between the current points where the GFS and the Euro are anticipating the center of Sandy will make landfall. There's so many spaghetti models over my area that it's like an Italian restaurant! I hope that The Weather Channel keeps programming focused on Sandy tonight rather than airing some 'show'. That's just SO annoying!