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Hurricane Sandy hits Jamaica, dumps heavy rains on Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:54 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

Hurricane Sandy hit the southeastern tip of Jamaica near 3:20 pm EDT this afternoon, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds and a 973 mb pressure. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, Sandy is the thirteenth hurricane to make a direct hit on the island, and the first since Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Kingston, Jamaica recorded sustained winds of 44 mph and a pressure of 972 mb in the west eyewall of Sandy at 4 pm EDT. The eastern tip of Jamaica will see the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant and the heaviest damage, though. A distorted eye is apparent on visible satellite loops, but Sandy is showing only minor disruption to its inner core structure as a result of hitting Jamaica. According to the Jamaica Observer, "Alligator Pond [in St Elizabeth] was inundated with the high waves that came ashore. We are now getting reports of impacts out in St. Catherine, Portland and St. Thomas as the ground becomes saturated. We are now seeing where light poles are toppling and landslides being reported and roadway being flooded to the point where there is impeded access in east St. Thomas." Heavy rains from Sandy are falling in Haiti. A NOAA forecast based on microwave satellite data predicts 12 inches of rain for the tip of Haiti's southwestern Peninsula, which will likely cause life-threatening flash flooding. Fortunately, much lighter rainfall amounts are predicted for the capital of Port-au-Prince, where 350,000 people still live in the open under tarps in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake. In August, flooding from Hurricane Isaac killed at least 29 people in Haiti.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy over Jamaica. The large 55-mile diameter eye hit the island at 3:20 pm EDT, and crossed over the eastern tip of the island. The eye has been distorted into an odd triangular shape, due to interaction with the land area of Jamaica.


Figure 2. Predicted 24-hour rain amounts from Hurricane Sandy for the period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 25, 2012. The prediction is based on microwave satellite data of precipitation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Near-term forecast for Sandy
Sandy doesn't have much time over water before it makes landfall on the southeastern coast of Cuba near 10 pm EDT this Wednesday night, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph, and will likely destroy the hurricane's eyewall. It will be difficult for the storm to rebuild its eyewall and regain all of that lost strength, in the face of the high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. However, the loss of the eyewall will cause Sandy's radius of tropical storm-force winds to expand, spreading out the winds over a wider area of ocean, and increasing the storm surge threat. This large wind field will likely drive a storm surge of 5 - 8 feet in the Bahamas, which is more characteristic of a storm with winds 20 mph higher. I expect that Sandy will be a 65 - 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas, and the storm will make its closest pass by Nassau around 10 pm EDT Thursday.


Figure 3. This Maximum Water Depth storm surge image for the Bahamas shows the worst-case inundation scenarios for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, as predicted using dozens of runs of NOAA's SLOSH model. For example, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. No single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this image. Sandy's maximum storm surge may reach levels portrayed in this image for some islands in the Bahamas. See wunderground's storm surge pages for more storm surge info.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic, New England, and Canada
The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray an increased risk to the U.S. and Canadian East Coasts for early next week. The GFS model, which had been showing that Sandy would head to the northeast out to sea, now has changed its tune, and predicts that Sandy will double back and hit Maine on Tuesday evening. The ECMWF model, which has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy, now has the storm hitting Delaware on Monday afternoon. These models are predicting that Sandy will get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into the storm, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Winds of this strength would likely cause massive power outages, as trees still in leaf take out power lines. Also of great concern are Sandy's rains. Given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, as predicted, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S. Another huge concern is storm surge flooding. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding.

There remains a lot of model uncertainty on where Sandy might go, and I still give a 30% chance that the storm will have a minimal impact on the U.S. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Hurr Sandy staring down
Hurr Sandy staring down
Looking onto Caribbean Sea, from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. Thrawst
Winds are slowly increasing here in Nassau. Gusts to 35mph are becoming a little more frequent and pressure is slowly decreasing --- 1003mb at the current moment. Will keep you all informed how it turns out here!
2002. LargoFl
NAM at 27 hours.............
Time: 12:43:30Z
Coordinates: 22.35N 73.9833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.2 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,071 meters (~ 10,075 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.8 mb (~ 29.47 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 175° at 73 knots (From the S at ~ 83.9 mph)
Air Temp: 7.0°C* (~ 44.6°F*)
Dew Pt: 7.0°C* (~ 44.6°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 77 knots (~ 88.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 79 knots* (~ 90.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr* (~ 0.12 in/hr*)
2004. LargoFl
Quoting Thrawst:
Winds are slowly increasing here in Nassau. Gusts to 35mph are becoming a little more frequent and pressure is slowly decreasing --- 1003mb at the current moment. Will keep you all informed how it turns out here!
ok prepare and stay safe ok, this is a powerful storm and maybe getting stronger
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Time: 12:43:30Z
Coordinates: 22.35N 73.9833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.2 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,071 meters (~ 10,075 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.8 mb (~ 29.47 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 175° at 73 knots (From the S at ~ 83.9 mph)
Air Temp: 7.0°C* (~ 44.6°F*)
Dew Pt: 7.0°C* (~ 44.6°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 77 knots (~ 88.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 79 knots* (~ 90.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr* (~ 0.12 in/hr*)


Suspect, though I don't know why. Nothing too obvious that would be.
In MD near DC. Can someone explain why people are worried about large snowfall totals in the northeast?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Suspect, though I don't know why. Nothing too obvious that would be.


I din't know why either...probably because it is the strongest one. The others around it were nearly 40-60 mph winds
it's not rain contaminated
HH are now heading for another pass though the center
The eye popping out again...it's like nothing happened to it..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I din't know why either...probably because it is the strongest one. The others around it were nearly 40-60 mph winds
it's not rain contaminated


That's probably why.
2013. Grothar
GFDL 102 hours. 938 mb?????


2014. AztecCe
Anybody think this monster could go cat.3? 4?
2015. LargoFl
Quoting frecklespugsley:
In MD near DC. Can someone explain why people are worried about large snowfall totals in the northeast?
well maybe its a strong cold front coming in and add in huge amounts of tropical moisture from sandy..timing is the key in all this later on
2016. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
GFDL 102 hours. 938 mb?????


GRO we here right now are witness to weather history in the making, what an amazing storm this is
2017. Dakster
Whatever you guys/galsa re linking to is not showing. Probably too many people hitting the site.

(Grothar, Aztec, and TrHurr..)
2018. AztecCe
Quoting Grothar:
GFDL 102 hours. 938 mb?????


The Big One
2019. K8eCane
I SURE hope it makes that curve out up here in Wilmington NC
Quoting Grothar:
The FIM9

I don't like the idea of Sandy coming close to Carolinas...
Quoting frecklespugsley:
In MD near DC. Can someone explain why people are worried about large snowfall totals in the northeast?
Think of it this way. There's a trough of low pressure tilting across the northeast. As it sucks Sandy into its eastern edge, it's going to pull some really frigid arctic air down along its western side. And that, in turn, brings with it the potential for some serious, early-season snow accumulations along its western periphery.
Quoting frecklespugsley:
In MD near DC. Can someone explain why people are worried about large snowfall totals in the northeast?


It all depends where Sandy or whatever form she is in, makes "landfall" However, the snow will not be where you would think in relation to the storm. It will develop on the southwest side first as it taps into the colder air behind the cold front. Also, with vertical velocities maxed out, there will be evaporative cooling, especially again on the southwest and west side of the storm. There will most likely be substantial snows in the Blue Ridge mountains and possibly western PA. Again,it all depends on the track. Anywhere to the right of the storm will be rain. This setup is very interesting. It could be 70 degrees in Boston with heavy rain and a fierce south wind, while it could be 32 and snowing in Roanoke, VA.
2023. LargoFl
Quoting AztecCe:
Anybody think this monster could go cat.3? 4?
In Bahamas? Category 2 peak is my guess.
Big rain coming in now!
Notice the inflow from the SE getting stuck below the greater antilles....that could break off like the GFS wanted it to.

Note also the inflow from the NW getting stuck above the greater antilles and getting thicker and expanding west towards FL. the storm should begin its transition to a west weighted storm soon.

Then note how large Sandy's sphere on influence is.
Finally, pick your jaw up off the floor.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
The eye popping out again...it's like nothing happened to it..


Well, the thing is the core is very ragged and disorganized looking. We'll see if that blow up of convection helps it take a more circular look. Certainly all signs, to me at least, point to intensification.
I have to admit I chuckled a bit this morning when WPTV had a reporter on the beach in Boca Raton talking about the strong gusty winds. She held up the anemometer and it showed 9 mph. D'oh!
2030. LargoFl
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I don't like the idea of Sandy coming close to Carolinas...
yes people really do need to be paying attention, this storm is pretty much fooling the experts
2031. AztecCe
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I don't like the idea of Sandy coming close to Carolinas...
hopefully it won't come any closer than Earl did
2032. LargoFl
Quoting DookiePBC:
I have to admit I chuckled a bit this morning when WPTV had a reporter on the beach in Boca Raton talking about the strong gusty winds. She held up the anemometer and it showed 9 mph. D'oh!
LOL winds can be funny..one one block its 9mph, 3 blocks away its 15 mph and so on
Quoting DookiePBC:
I have to admit I chuckled a bit this morning when WPTV had a reporter on the beach in Boca Raton talking about the strong gusty winds. She held up the anemometer and it showed 9 mph. D'oh!


lol from the time its breezy they do that....
If they were going to hype it, they should have just put giant fans off-camera.
2034. JRRP
Quoting AztecCe:
Anybody think this monster could go cat.3? 4?

still NNE motion
2035. AztecCe
Quoting Bluestorm5:
In Bahamas? Category 2 peak is my guess.
I think it could come close like 110 mph
Quoting AztecCe:
Anybody think this monster could go cat.3? 4?
That's a clear and distinct eye reforming on that loop, right? The last center fix gave us a closed elliptical eye, measuring 25 miles by 35 miles. But on the satellite imagery, that eye now looks much clearer, and circular.
2037. LargoFl
..............now i understand why the NHC was mentioning the delmar area this morning


Its a 967 MB storm.
2039. 7544
morning all sandy is getting her eye back coffee time but whats all the talk about her turning nw soon is that suppose to happen before her closest mark to se fl or after thanks
Quoting LargoFl:
LOL winds can be funny..one one block its 9mph, 3 blocks away its 15 mph and so on


Yeah...I've been outside this morning so I know how variable the winds are. But it just cracked me up that when they put her on camera, that happened. I think she fully expected a bigger number. Kinda reminded me of Chris Farley getting pulled over in the movie "Black Sheep": Do you have any idea how fast you were going? I don't know...80 tops? SEVEN!!!! You were going 7 mph!!!
Inflow really getting stuck south of the islands.

It is alsopiling up north of them on Sandy's NW side..that is the part of the west-weighting we didnt take into account, besides the ULL that Levi mentioned.


With the inflow piling up north of the islands and with teh ULL pushing the storm N, all that NW quadrant will get squahed up on itself.
To hell with Sandy!.I wanted a hurricane Noel track.
Hey, I'm semi new here. I was just wondering what everyone thinks about the possibility of Sandy effecting Philadelphia.
Quoting Chucktown:


It all depends where Sandy or whatever form she is in, makes "landfall" However, the snow will not be where you would think in relation to the storm. It will develop on the southwest side first as it taps into the colder air behind the cold front. Also, with vertical velocities maxed out, there will be evaporative cooling, especially again on the southwest and west side of the storm. There will most likely be substantial snows in the Blue Ridge mountains and possibly western PA. Again,it all depends on the track. Anywhere to the right of the storm will be rain. This setup is very interesting. It could be 70 degrees in Boston with heavy rain and a fierce south wind, while it could be 32 and snowing in Roanoke, VA.

Gotta hand it to ya, Chuck. You called this thing when you said it would stay far enough away from Florida to not make landfall.

Kudos, Brother!
2045. LargoFl
Quoting 7544:
whats all the talk about her turning nw soon is that suppose to happen before her closest mark to se fl or after thanks
i think the closest it comes is on friday to central florida
Quoting LargoFl:
well maybe its a strong cold front coming in and add in huge amounts of tropical moisture from sandy..timing is the key in all this later on


And the trees still have leaves, a little snow will bring down allot of trees like last Oct in NY/CT.
Quoting washingtonian115:
To hell with Sandy!.I wanted a hurricane Noel track.

OMG, Washi. You took a look at the 06 GFDL, right?

Here you go: Link

I wouldn't worry about a 935mb sitting atop D.C. But you could still get a major storm.
2048. LargoFl
OMG..NAEFS model spread for 120 hours from now....
2049. AztecCe
If it hits the Delmar area, NC will get some nasty weather.
2050. LargoFl
Quoting IFuSAYso:


And the trees still have leaves, a little snow will bring down allot of trees like last Oct in NY/CT.
yes the nws said that would be a major concern in the northeast, that and alot of downed powerlines and power outages maybe lasting for days
Looks Like Long Island and Cat Island, Bahamas are in Sandy's sight.
123 mph flight winds reported, but only 80 mph on surface.
Winds registering up to 107kts at flight level, and 79 kts via SFMR, as the hunter prepares to penetrate the redeveloping eye from the northwest. Days like this, those guys really earn their pay. I'd hate to fly into a re-intensifying cyclone, never knowing just how strong it was about to get. And with flight level winds elsewhere in the storm ranging to 114kts, there can be some nasty surprises.
Could someone repost the cuban radar loop websites, I can't seem to find them on the web. Getmo radar comes up blank.
I rember something like kings bay in the link, but get nothing on bing.
MSNBC's Chuck Todd just gave a shout out to Weather Underground!
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Gotta hand it to ya, Chuck. You called this thing when you said it would stay far enough away from Florida to not make landfall.

Kudos, Brother!


Yea, Florida still seeing some weather as expected, mainly indirect effects with the strong NE fetch. Still going to be some TS gusts and erosion, but like I said Tuesday, Sandy will not be known for what it does to Florida, but the potential impact to the Mid-Atlantic and NE. This could truly be the "Perfect Storm" up there. Going to be an interesting setup to say the least.
2057. K8eCane
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
MSNBC's Chuck Todd just gave a shout out to Weather Underground!


yes but i bet he didnt mention jeff masters blog comments
Quoting TomballTXPride:

OMG, Washi. You took a look at the 06 GFDL, right?

Here you go: Link

I wouldn't worry about a 935mb sitting atop D.C. But you could still get a major storm.
I tend not to take the GFDL serious when we're tracking any type of weather.It is on my list of ridiculous models.
2059. Grothar
Quoting LargoFl:
GRO we here right now are witness to weather history in the making, what an amazing storm this is


It would be quite an event. The weather Channel last night, covered the different scenarios and it could be quite serious, depending on where an actual landfall might occur. As you remember from the other night, a number of us stated it would remain a hurricane after hitting Jamaica and Cuba and would be a hurricane in the Bahamas. How big the wind field will be in the Atlantic will be interesting to see.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
123 mph flight winds reported, but only 80 mph on surface.


90mph now on the SFMR. Likely the NHC will keep it a Category 2 per ATCF.
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, Florida still seeing some weather as expected, mainly indirect effects with the strong NE fetch. Still going to be some TS gusts and erosion, but like I said Tuesday, Sandy will not be known for what it does to Florida, but the potential impact to the Mid-Atlantic and NE. This could truly be the "Perfect Storm" up there. Going to be an interesting setup to say the least.

Indeed.
2062. AztecCe
Quoting LetsGoPhils:
Hey, I'm semi new here. I was just wondering what everyone thinks about the possibility of Sandy effecting Philadelphia.
even if it doesnt directially hit pen. everyone in the NE is going to feel some effects
2063. K8eCane
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, Florida still seeing some weather as expected, mainly indirect effects with the strong NE fetch. Still going to be some TS gusts and erosion, but like I said Tuesday, Sandy will not be known for what it does to Florida, but the potential impact to the Mid-Atlantic and NE. This could truly be the "Perfect Storm" up there. Going to be an interesting setup to say the least.



Chucktown you might end up working some overtime. You never know
Quoting washingtonian115:
I tend not to take the GFDL serious when we're tracking any type of weather.It is on my list of ridiculous models.

Good.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
MSNBC's Chuck Todd just gave a shout out to Weather Underground!


what did he say?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I tend not to take the GFDL serious when we're tracking any type of weather.It is on my list of ridiculous models.


it nailed Katrina, maybe it can get Sandy

All the GFS ensembles and the Euro make the days leading up to and the day of halloween very very rainy.
And windy.
Some very very windy.

The only good news is that you might be lucky enough to see a snowflake. Maybe....its not likely.
moving quick. doubt it will make a cat 3 level now nevertheless its a heavy one if she makes landfall in the ne conus she will be the news not this election
2069. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:


It would be quite an event. The weather Channel last night, covered the different scenarios and it could be quite serious, depending on where an actual landfall might occur. As you remember from the other night, a number of us stated it would remain a hurricane after hitting Jamaica and Cuba and would be a hurricane in the Bahamas. How big the wind field will be in the Atlantic will be interesting to see.
yes it is going to be a very interesting 5 days or so, just checked a local newspaper in nyc, they arent even mentioning it lol..i sure hope thats not the case in the northeast everywhere
Quoting LargoFl:
yes the nws said that would be a major concern in the northeast, that and alot of downed powerlines and power outages maybe lasting for days

More like weeks. I was in Armonk, NY working hurricane Irene when snowtober hit. Armonk was out for 1 week. Several areas were out fore 3 weeks.
2071. Bayside
Jeff Masters quoted in this news article Link
Pressures dropping.
962.9 mb
(~ 28.43 inHg)

Might be several MB's lower, there was some strong winds with it. Maybe 960.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


90mph now on the SFMR. Likely the NHC will keep it a Category 2 per ATCF.


Yeah I missed this one: SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 79 knots (~ 90.8 mph)
Quoting K8eCane:


yes but i bet he didnt mention jeff masters blog comments


He said, "I was a weather geek yesterday. Weather Undergound had this crazy thing that could happen...They described it as like a weather bomb could go off."
Quoting TampaSpin:
The INTENSITY FORECAST that these models are showing versus what the NHC is saying are a very large difference. Sure hope that NHC is correct but, if they are not WOW! Sandy is a HOOKER with a whole lot of BLOW!

Yes! Boy I miss that swagger from you, Spin! Please post more here!!
2076. LargoFl
all the models are saying Yes..GEFS at 120 hours.......


Conditions are deteriorating very slowly here. I experienced one lengthy gust about 30mph, but winds are still relatively light... rains are intermittent... some localized flooding is already occurring.

Winds are picking up in Exuma.

Gotta run... will be back later.
962.9 mb
(~ 28.43 inHg)
Quoting TampaSpin:
The INTENSITY FORECAST that these models are showing versus what the NHC is saying are a very large difference...


Not cool at all TampaSpin. Are you angling to miss all of the excitement ?
Brad Panovich9:14 AM

NAM 4 does very well within the data grid of the U.S. especially with small scale stuff near the surface. It essentially is very close the ECMWF. 

Remember we have upper air & radar data from the Carribean in the NAM. Not to mention several recon trips and dropsonde data now in the NAM for Sandy. It's also more likely the NAM is handle the deep trough and cold air much better than any tropical model. Which would struggle this far north in late October. 
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it nailed Katrina, maybe it can get Sandy

All the GFS ensembles and the Euro make the days leading up to and the day of halloween very very rainy.
And windy.
Some very very windy.

The only good news is that you might be lucky enough to see a snowflake. Maybe....its not likely.
Is the GFS still showing a out to sea solution?.I don't want to bring it all down on Maine but if it hits Canada/Maine maybe the I-95 corridor can escape the worst effects.
2082. K8eCane
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


He said, "I was a weather geek yesterday. Weather Undergound had this crazy thing that could happen...They described it as like a weather bomb could go off."


well I reckon you never actually know who could be geeking with us
Quoting K8eCane:



Chucktown you might end up working some overtime. You never know


Nah, we should be OK here in the Lowcountry. Unless there is some major shift to the west over the next few days, but guidance has been very tightly clustered in the short term through Sunday. We may see a few showers on Saturday and definitely breezy. The biggest impact that Sandy will have here in the southeast will be the unseasonably cold air that rushes in on the back side of the storm. Sandy is going to carve out a huge trough down here. Parts of northern Georgia may dip below freezing at night early next week.
Sandy is really wrapping up again. CDO continues to expand and explode.

Rapid Refresh Loop
2085. LargoFl
short term model at 18 hours.......
2086. LargoFl
not a good day in south florida huh............
Quoting BahaHurican:


Conditions are deteriorating very slowly here. I experienced one lengthy gust about 30mph, but winds are still relatively light... rains are intermittent... some localized flooding is already occurring.

Winds are picking up in Exuma.

Gotta run... will be back later.


Stay safe All in Bahamas - will be in Nassau myself on Tue - so keep it safe
If you know folks in Exuma, tell them to be careful of that surge - impact coinciding with High Tide
Quoting BahaHurican:


Conditions are deteriorating very slowly here. I experienced one lengthy gust about 30mph, but winds are still relatively light... rains are intermittent... some localized flooding is already occurring.

Winds are picking up in Exuma.

Gotta run... will be back later.


Baha, Stay safe and be careful.

Sheri
2090. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. BOATERS
ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION ON AREA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
HURRICANE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE WELL
WEST OF THE CENTER...LARGE EXPANDING WIND FIELD WILL CAUSE WINDS
AND SEAS TO BUILD FRIDAY...AND PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH ROUGH CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
Quoting southfla:


Not cool at all TampaSpin. Are you angling to miss all of the excitement ?


NOPE just trying to give some Stress relief to many that are really stressing right now and rightfully so tho....EVERY MAJOR MODEL NOW has Sandy hooking into the East Coast. The Southern most has the DC area while the most Northern is the GFS taking her into Maine i believe it was. I believe the GFS timing is completely off based upon Sandy's current speed as the GFS for the past few runs has Sandy moving slower up the East Coast.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
962.9 mb
(~ 28.43 inHg)
But the dropsonde recorded 965mb in the center, along with 14 kt winds - that's the figure they'll use. So, down 3mb since the last center fix. Strengthening steadily, but not yet rapidly.

The satellite signature, though, suggests that the eye is nearly done reverting to circular form, and that the storm is wrapping its strongest winds all the way around its center. I'd expect the pressure to fall significantly by the time the plane makes another pass in about an hour.
Weekend forecast for Detroit (games 3 and 4) already looking chilly (52/35 Sat, 48/34 Sun, colder real feels). Perhaps we can add a little wind to that forecast? Which is the better cold weather team?
Ft. Lauderdale Beach
Highest winds 37 sustained, gusting to 48 mph
Link
2096. LargoFl
A pressure of 939 millibars over D.C is ridiculous....
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
Quoting TampaSpin:


NOPE just trying to give some Stress relief to many that are really stressing right now and rightfully so tho....EVERY MAJOR MODEL NOW has Sandy hooking into the East Coast. The Southern most has the DC area while the most Northern is the GFS taking her into Maine i believe it was. I believe the GFS timing is completely off based upon Sandy's current speed as the GFS for the past few runs has Sandy moving slower up the East Coast.

Absolutely correct regarding the GFS, Spin! And timing is everything, Brother!

And it sure isn't looking good for the Eastern Seaboard ATM...
Quoting washingtonian115:
A pressure of 939 millibars over D.C is ridiculous....

Remember those same models were bombing out Isaac in the 920 range, and how did that turn out. LOL

938mb is insane. 960mb-ish is more likely.
Quoting CloudGatherer:
But the dropsonde recorded 965mb in the center, along with 14 kt winds - that's the figure they'll use. So, down 3mb since the last center fix. Strengthening steadily, but not yet rapidly.

The satellite signature, though, suggests that the eye is nearly done reverting to circular form, and that the storm is wrapping its strongest winds all the way around its center. I'd expect the pressure to fall significantly by the time the plane makes another pass in about an hour.


Not a bad drop either way, the last vortex was 968mb.
2102. LargoFl
Orlando doing good so far...........
2103. Grothar
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
Ft. Lauderdale Beach
Highest winds 37 sustained, gusting to 48 mph
Link


We are right on the coast. It is getting very windy and light rains. We had a few gusts couple minutes ago that were really strong.
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneSandy @ 25Oct.12pm

SCU-Santiago :: PST-Preston :: DCT-RaggedIsland :: LGI-LongIsland

The bottom dot on the connected lines is where TropicalStormSandy became HurricaneSandy
The southernmost dot on the top connected line is H.Sandy's most recent position

The top connected line is a straightline projection through H.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within ~23miles or 37kilometres) to an inhabited coastline.
25Oct.06am: H.Sandy had been headed for passage over SouthPoint,LongIsland (left,PWNdumbell)
25Oct.12pm: H.Sandy was heading for a ~1:54pm passage 21miles(34kilometres)ESEast of RaggedIsland before heading for a ~6pm passage over GallowayLanding,LongIsland

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
2105. LargoFl
St.Pete beach on the west coast,quiet here........
I was just wondering has anyone heard where they might be sending Jim Cantore? I know someone said he had to cut his vacation short because of Hurricane Sandy. I was just wondering.

sheri
A frost for North Georgia next week would be 1-3 days early at worst.

A freeze (which is possible as long as Sandy goes to the NE) would be about 2 weeks early.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Remember those same models were bombing out Isaac in the 920 range, and how did that turn out. LOL

938mb is insane. 960mb-ish is more likely.
Oh yeah I remember that.Showed NOLA and surrounding areas being wiped of the face of the planet.
A Bit off topic here but found a humorous comment to the Associated Press article on Hurricane Sandy that quotes Dr. Jeff Masters.
Story Link: Link

Comment: Ironic that this storm shares my wife's name. If it continues to earn the name it will randomly change intensity in all directions several times without cause or warning. If everyone puts chocolate and flowers outside, the storm will spare you!
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I was just wondering has anyone heard where they might be sending Jim Cantore? I know someone said he had to cut his vacation short because of Hurricane Sandy. I was just wondering.

sheri


New York City
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
A Bit off topic here but found a humorous comment to the Associated Press article on Hurricane Sandy that quotes Dr. Jeff Masters.
Story Link: Link

Comment: Ironic that this storm shares my wife's name. If it continues to earn the name it will randomly change intensity in all directions several times without cause or warning. If everyone puts chocolate and flowers outside, the storm will spare you!


TWC has been training him well, bring personality and bring in those ratings
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I was just wondering has anyone heard where they might be sending Jim Cantore? I know someone said he had to cut his vacation short because of Hurricane Sandy. I was just wondering.

sheri


from Twitter
@JimCantore Oct 24, 11:10pm ...(cont) Next couple days of runs with added data should give us a better pic of early next week outcome. Off to Singer Island, FL
Quoting RitaEvac:


TWC has been training him well, bring personality and bring in those ratings

Precisely, Rita.
Hey does anyone know what happened or where Patrap is and a quit a few others that are usually here during a storm?

Sheri
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Hey does anyone know what happened or where Patrap is and a quit a few others that are usually here during a storm?

Sheri

He had that large litter of Pups during Isaac. Probably busy with them. That's gotta be a handful, no? I mean one doggie is bad enough!!!!
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Hey does anyone know what happened or where Patrap is and a quit a few others that are usually here during a storm?

Sheri


He's gone off the grid as only 50 some odd days are left till winter solstice
2118. cwf1069
Eye circular and closed again. Pressure down 3 mb. Intensification on the go.
Quoting LargoFl:
i think the closest it comes is on friday to central florida


I'm still not sold on the idea of tropical storm force winds (maybe gusts, from the gradient alone) along the Florida East Coast, with Sandy staying at least 250 miles offshore. Also considering the fact that Sandy has been pretty consistently moving east of north.
Quoting washingtonian115:
A pressure of 939 millibars over D.C is ridiculous....
Unpleasant? Sure. But not ridiculous.

The Great Gale of 1878 is believed to have made landfall over the Chesapeake with a central pressure of roughly 963 millibars. A ship passing through the Chesapeake Bay-Potomac Hurricane of 1933 recorded a pressure of 940mb, although by the time it came ashore at Cape Hatteras the pressure had risen, and it reached DC at 980mb.

The models are almost certainly exaggerating the pressure of the storm - we're still at the outer edge of the five day window for forecasted track and location, and at five days, intensity forecasts have no predictive value whatsoever. But that doesn't mean a storm that strong can't happen.
ECMWF puts a big snow event over much of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia,Parts of Kentucky and Maryland
North Carolina and TN even see a few flakes
Not as much for New York this run:

Here is one frame as the snow rotates SW into Virginia:



Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I was just wondering has anyone heard where they might be sending Jim Cantore? I know someone said he had to cut his vacation short because of Hurricane Sandy. I was just wondering.

sheri



Expected on Singer Island (Riviera Beach) Fl this morning
Quoting FLCrackerGirl:


from Twitter
@JimCantore Oct 24, 11:10pm ...(cont) Next couple days of runs with added data should give us a better pic of early next week outcome. Off to Singer Island, FL


Good morning and thank you, I was wondering where is Singer Island? Is it in the lower part of Florida?

Sheri
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 13:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2012
Storm Name: Sandy (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 13:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2208'N 7528'W (22.1333N 75.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 147 miles (237 km) to the N (9) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,815m (9,236ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 79kts (~ 90.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (55) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 158 at 107kts (From the SSE at ~ 123.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (57) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 965mb (28.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8C (46F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17C (63F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7C (45F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 126kts (~ 145.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 11:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) in the north quadrant at 13:35:00Z

--------

So the storm has re-established a closed, circular eye - with a slightly smaller diameter than it achieved before passing over Cuba. It continues to exhibit a strong temperature gradient, with the eye remaining a full 10C warmer than the surrounding air. This is a really dangerous storm, and it's about to get stronger.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Hey does anyone know what happened or where Patrap is and a quit a few others that are usually here during a storm?

Sheri
Preparing for 12/21/2012 :P
Quoting Grothar:


We are right on the coast. It is getting very windy and light rains. We had a few gusts couple minutes ago that were really strong.


Wow, maybe I was wrong about the statement I just posted. Those sustained winds are almost tropical storm force, but definitely not directly due to Sandy (indirectly yes).
Quoting CloudGatherer:
Unpleasant? Sure. But not ridiculous.

The Great Gale of 1878 is believed to have made landfall over the Chesapeake with a central pressure of roughly 963 millibars. A ship passing through the Chesapeake Bay-Potomac Hurricane of 1933 recorded a pressure of 940mb, although by the time it came ashore at Cape Hatteras the pressure had risen, and it reached DC at 980mb.

The models are almost certainly exaggerating the pressure of the storm - we're still at the outer edge of the five day window for forecasted track and location, and at five days, intensity forecasts have no predictive value whatsoever. But that doesn't mean a storm that strong can't happen.

The Great Gale of 1878, huh? 940mb measured by a ship. Geez-Louise. Gonna save that lil nugget for when Jeff fires up the AGW blogs after Sandy.
2129. 7544
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Good morning and thank you, I was wondering where is Singer Island? Is it in the lower part of Florida?

Sheri


palm beach i think
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Good morning and thank you, I was wondering where is Singer Island? Is it in the lower part of Florida?

Sheri


Just north of palm beach
2131. LargoFl
Boca beach on the east coast of florida
Ocean-Reef-coastal-FL 25.36n 80.31w
Flagler-Beach-FL 29.47n 81.12w

... TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
551 am EDT Thu Oct 25 2012
... Precautionary/preparedness actions...
precautionary/preparedness actions...
Final preparations to protect life and property should be completed before conditions deteriorate. The onset of gusty winds and heavy rains can cause outside activities to become dangerous.
Secure loose outdoor objects which can be blown around.
... Winds...
as Sandy moves closer... the threat for sustained high winds is likely to increase by late tonight... Friday and Friday night.
Maximum winds are forecast to be in the 30 to 35 mph range with gusts to 45 to 50 mph... especially in squalls which will increase in both strength and frequency. Residents should move loose items indoors...such as garbage cans and outdoor furniture...as they may be blown around. Newly planted or Young trees and shrubs may be uprooted if not secured properly. Isolated power outages will be possible.
... Storm surge and storm tide...
large and battering waves Thursday afternoon into Friday and continuing into Saturday will cause moderate beach erosion...dangerous surf... and minor coastal flooding in vulnerable spots.
Large breakers up to 8 feet will cause erosion to dunes during multiple high tidal cycles late Thursday through Saturday.
The surf will become extremely dangerous from this afternoon through Saturday. Beachgoers should remain out of the pounding surf. The large surf can knock you down and susceptible to the seaward pull of rip currents.

Sorry to say, someone always dies in the surf along ECFL coast during these events. Maybe this time will be different, but I doubt it.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Good morning and thank you, I was wondering where is Singer Island? Is it in the lower part of Florida?

Sheri
Yes, near Riviera Beach
Ha! The front page of Yahoo already has the hype machine fired up!! Jeff is quoted in there saying the potential exists for a billion dollar disaster.

Hope that does not happen.
2135. 7544
Quoting cwf1069:
Eye circular and closed again. Pressure down 3 mb. Intensification on the go.


thats what i was asking could she get stronger before the closest of approch to se fl which should be in 15 hours from now tia
Quoting washingtonian115:
A pressure of 939 millibars over D.C is ridiculous....

True, but keep in mind this would be an extratropical storm. The record low pressure for the N Atlantic is from the Braer Storm of January 1993. It was a shocking 914.0 mb --yes, 914 mb!!!
2137. JRRP
Link
look at this
Quoting HoraceDebussyJones:



Expected on Singer Island (Riviera Beach) Fl this morning


If it's Riviera Beach proper I hope he has his security detail with him. Singer Island is an interesting choice because it is THE easternmost point of Florida so that if the storm doesn't turn northeast until it passes that will be the closest pass to the mainland.
Quoting RitaEvac:


He's gone off the grid as only 53 days are left till winter solstice


RitaEvac, thank you, I just haven't seen him around in a while and I kinda thought it was unusual. I haven't seen Floodman,Ike,SammyWhammy and a few others. I guess WU has done a lot of changing or something a lot of folks are gone. Kinda miss some of them. they had a lot of input and was just down right nice folks.

Sheri
2140. LargoFl
2141. MahFL
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I was just wondering has anyone heard where they might be sending Jim Cantore? I know someone said he had to cut his vacation short because of Hurricane Sandy. I was just wondering.

sheri


Long Island for sure.
2142. Levi32
Quoting Chapelhill:

True, but keep in mind this would be an extratropical storm. The record low pressure for the N Atlantic is from the Braer Storm of January 1993. It was a shocking 914.0 mb --yes, 914 mb!!!


The record lowest barometric pressure recorded in the northeastern United States is 949.5mb in Connecticut during, guess what, the 1938 hurricane.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


RitaEvac, thank you, I just haven't seen him around in a while and I kinda thought it was unusual. I haven't seen Floodman,Ike,SammyWhammy and a few others. I guess WU has done a lot of changing or something a lot of folks are gone. Kinda miss some of them. they had a lot of input and was just down right nice folks.

Sheri


Nobody knows where Pat is really
Anyone know what the 12Z NAM is up to?



Oh wait, that's right. NEVER use the NAM for directional purposes.
2145. LargoFl
Singer Island web cam
2146. Grothar
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Wow, maybe I was wrong about the statement I just posted. Those sustained winds are almost tropical storm force, but definitely not directly due to Sandy (indirectly yes).


No, you are correct. They are from the pressure gradient. We wouldn't be affected directly from the wind field until tonight.
Quoting Levi32:


The record lowest barometric pressure recorded in the northeastern United States is 949.5mb in Connecticut during, guess what, the 1938 hurricane.

949.5mb during the 1938 hurricane. Ok. Taking notes here.
2148. MahFL
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Good morning and thank you, I was wondering where is Singer Island? Is it in the lower part of Florida?

Sheri


It's the part closest to the Bahamas.
2149. JRRP
Azua Dom.Rep
Link
Don't focus on the eye of the storm,if it becomes extra-tropical the strongest winds can be well away from the center!
Quoting Levi32:


The record lowest barometric pressure recorded in the northeastern United States is 949.5mb in Connecticut during, guess what, the 1938 hurricane.
That is a record that could have a chance of being broken.
2152. JRRP
Link
more
Quoting Levi32:


The record lowest barometric pressure recorded in the northeastern United States is 949.5mb in Connecticut during, guess what, the 1938 hurricane.
I really doubt Sandy will be as low as 949.5 mb when she is in the area.
2154. LargoFl
Quoting overwash12:
Don't focus on the eye of the storm,if it becomes extra-tropical the strongest winds can be well away from the center!
agreed
2155. fmbill
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Anyone know what the 12Z NAM is up to?



Oh wait, that's right. NEVER use the NAM for directional purposes.


Sure is fun to watch, though. :-)
The Bahamas Department of Meteorology says Hurricane Sandy could produce storm surges of 5 to 8 feet on some islands.




What damage will that do down there?

I suppose if not for the greater antilles, the bahamas would have been in trouble.
Wait, didn't the 1938 Long Island Express turn Extratropical before hitting Long Island?

That's something to consider with Sandy...
Quoting Chapelhill:
That is a record that could have a chance of being broken.


If it is broken....it will smash that 1 billion dollar loss if it comes into LONG ISLAND! JUST SAYN
2159. Grothar
Large flareup beginning on the western side.

2160. Bayside
Sure don't like these surge models going up every few hours, sure makes it look like it's going to be closer than the NHC forecast
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I was just wondering has anyone heard where they might be sending Jim Cantore? I know someone said he had to cut his vacation short because of Hurricane Sandy. I was just wondering.

sheri


I heard on the radio this morning that he is on Singer Island in Palm Beach County.
Quoting TampaSpin:


If it is broken....it will smash that 1 billion dollar loss if it comes into LONG ISLAND! JUST SAYN

Don't scare me, Spin!!!
Quoting reedzone:
Wait, didn't the 1938 Long Island Express turn Extratropical before hitting Long Island?

That's something to consider with Sandy...


Funny you said that....i posted on here about 5am that Sandy just might stay tropical much longer than expected.
2164. Grothar
Quoting reedzone:
Wait, didn't the 1938 Long Island Express turn Extratropical before hitting Long Island?

That's something to consider with Sandy...


Where did you hear that? I believe it hit as a Cat 3 hurricane. It was moving over 60 mph.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Funny you said that....i posted on here about 5am that Sandy just might stay tropical much longer than expected.

Especially is she continues to fire up that deep convection and tries to wrap it around her center. Then certainly!!!
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Don't scare me, Spin!!!


Dont mean to do that....but those that know me know i post as i see it.....ya know!
2167. JRRP
2168. 7544
strange but fun to watch lol

Link
Surf conditions at Indialantic,FLA at 10 am.
Wind is picking up.

http://youtu.be/qr5XGkVQtrM
Quoting TampaSpin:


Dont mean to do that....but those that know me know i post as i see it.....ya know!

Gotcha. No problem!
2171. DFWjc
Quoting LargoFl:
Boca beach on the east coast of florida


Here's another cam from Palm Beach
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/palmbeach/

Link
2172. LargoFl
Quoting Bayside:
Sure don't like these surge models going up every few hours, sure makes it look like it's going to be closer than the NHC forecast
one thing is for sure, up the whole coast going to be alot of coastal flooding, water surging into those inlets etc
2173. LargoFl
Quoting TampaSpin:


If it is broken....it will smash that 1 billion dollar loss if it comes into LONG ISLAND! JUST SAYN
im wondering if in eastern long island they are considering evacs..this is a powerful storm
2174. LargoFl
When is this westward drift going to happen? It seems like it's going to cross 75W far from Florida. What are the chances that it misses us all together?
2177. LargoFl
Quoting floridastorm:
When is this westward drift going to happen? It seems like it's going to cross 75W far from Florida. What are the chances that it misses us all together?
probably the more concern should be how Large in area she becomes,if she is 240 miles wide and she come 150 miles from florida's coast..well..
We could be witnessing a multi-billion dollar disaster in the making
When the storm is two days out I'll start being way more alert but the models can't agree and is being a little aggressive.
Quoting LargoFl:
im wondering if in eastern long island they are considering evacs..this is a powerful storm



Bro..i would certainly hope so....If these models are correct on Intensity....WOW! Sure hope NHC is more correct than these models are showing CURRENTLY!
Article about Sandy on Yahoo.

"Cisco said the chance of the storm smacking the East jumped from 60 percent to 70 percent on Wednesday. Masters was somewhat skeptical on Tuesday, giving the storm scenario just a 40 percent likelihood, but on Wednesday he also upped that to 70 percent. The remaining computer models that previously hadn't shown the merger and mega-storm formation now predict a similar scenario."

Link
2182. JRRP
for now the UKM is the best
2183. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
857 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-251600-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
857 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

.NOW...
OCCASIONAL SQUALLS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ONTO THE
COAST TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. CELL MOTION WILL BE TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 35 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SQUALLS.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$
RL
The winds continued to climb while it hit Jamaica and Cuba and never weakened. Total opposite of what tropical systems are supposed to do
2185. 7544
maybe the nam is seeing the high above sandy that could push her more west ?
Next few days are going to be very, very interesting. Interests from Florida to New York need to watch Sandy, this could become quite the nor'easter.
Sandy is officialy impacting Florida.

Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Next few days are going to be very, very interesting. Interests from Florida to New York need to watch Sandy, this could become quite the nor'easter.


Florida to Canadian maritimes
2189. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
When the storm is two days out I'll start being way more alert but the models can't agree and is being a little aggressive.
.

Hello everyone. I agree wash
Fort Lauderdale cam (Windjammer Resort)
http://www.windjammerresort.com/webcam.html cam

2191. LargoFl

(NECN) - People across New England are bracing for Hurricane Sandy's potential impact.

In Scituate, Mass., crews are hard at work repairing a seawall that was damaged in a 2010 Nor'easter that caused severe flooding throughout the town.

Utility companies are preparing for the storm, as well.

At this time last year, a Nor'easter caused hundreds of thousands of power outages in New England.

One of the hardest hit communities was Foxboro, Mass. The majority of the town lost power.

Earlier this year, utility company NSTAR said it was better prepared, thanks to improvements in communication.

A new web portal enables customers to go online for up-to-date storm information.

NSTAR says it has community liasons knocking on doors to get the word out about the new web portal.
The High above Sandy is starting to build from the lower levels to the Upper Levels:

400 mb. level:



300 mb. level:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Aussie's link has a very optimistic forecast for the windspeed. No increses anymore.
I'm up here in the NYC metro area (Actually in SW CT) and listening to NYC all news radio stations , and there is no yalk as of now of any evacuations anywhere in our try-state area. Don't think there would be any talk of that until Sat. if the models still show a Northeast hit.
Quoting ncstorm:
.

Hello everyone. I agree wash
Good morning ncstorm.The euro shows quite the Hollywood horror storm for my area.lol
I hate it when media is overhyping the storm... yes, it could be bad, but not on "epic" level.
2198. kwgirl
Quoting JRRP:
Link
look at this
Where is that?
No one has mentioned TS Tony in almost a day, hats off for this little under-appreciated warrior that got us to 19 named.
AL, 19, 2012102512, , BEST, 0, 307N, 373W, 35, 1000, TS

This is what the NHC is thinking for Sandy at 11am.
AL, 18, 2012102512, , BEST, 0, 216N, 755W, 90, 966
2200. 7544
maybe the nam see the high above sandy as its building in and could push her more west while in the bahammas notice new convection forming to the west side at this hour hmmmm could the nam be right? tia
2201. JRRP
Quoting kwgirl:
Where is that?
Quoting kwgirl:
Where is that?

Santo Domingo
2202. JRRP
Quoting 7544:
maybe the nam see the high above sandy as its building in and could push her more west while in the bahammas notice new convection forming to the west side at this hour hmmmm could the nam be right? tia

for now.... NO
2203. Bayside
This is what the surge+tide did in the Chesapeake Bay was during Irene.



This is from Nor'Ida (2009 Nor'easter)


And finally Hurrican Isabel
Windy and rainy here. Tide extremely high.
2205. MahFL
Hmm, the cdo is exploding to the NW, towards Florida.
Good morning again...

I went out for about an hour to see what conditions were like especially on the north side. I took a few pictures and I'm going to try to get a blog entry up within the next hour or so.