WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Sandy pounding Jamaica, may hit U.S. this weekend; TS Tony forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on October 24, 2012

Hurricane warnings are flying for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba, as an intensifying Hurricane Sandy plows north-northeast at 13 mph towards landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm, and measured surface winds of hurricane strength--75 to 80 mph--in the storm's northeast quadrant near 9:25 am EDT. Sandy's pressure at the time of the 9:28 am center fix was 973 mb, and the temperature in the eye had warmed 2°C since the 7:48 am fix, a sign of strengthening. Intermittent rain squalls from Sandy have been affecting Jamaica since Monday night, and Kingston, Jamaica has picked up 2.12" of rain from Sandy as of 9 am EDT. Winds in Jamaica have been below 20 mph as of 10 am EDT, but will start to rise quickly in the next few hours. The Hurricane Hunters found a large 55 mile-diameter eye that was open to the WNW this morning, and it is likely that Kingston will receive high winds of 55 - 65 mph from the western eyewall, which will cause considerable damage to Jamaica's capital. The eastern tip of Jamaica will likely see the eye pass overhead, and will receive the strongest winds. The eye is beginning to appear on visible satellite loops, and Sandy is showing an increasing degree of organization as it closes in on Jamaica. Sandy is the tenth hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season, which is now tied for eighth place for most hurricanes in a year since record keeping began in 1851.


Figure 1. Morning microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 8:45 am EDT. The large 55-mile diameter eye was just south of Jamaica. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Near-term forecast for Sandy
Wind shear is forecast to be in the moderate range and ocean temperatures will be a warm 28°C through Thursday morning, which will favor intensification. However, Sandy doesn't have much time left over water before it encounters the high mountains of Jamaica this afternoon, which should interrupt the intensification process. The strongest Sandy is likely to be at landfall in Jamaica is a 90 mph Category 1 hurricanes. After encountering Jamaica, Sandy won't have time to re-organize much before making landfall in Eastern Cuba near 10 pm EDT tonight, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph, and it will be difficult for the storm to regain all of that lost strength in the face of the high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. I expect that Sandy will be a 60 - 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Sandy taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday, October 23, 2012. At the time, Sandy had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic and New England
On Friday, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast and trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic. The Central Atlantic trough may be strong enough to pull Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the official NHC forecast, and the 06Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z Canadian, and 06Z HWRF models (00Z is 8 pm EDT, and 06Z is 2 am EDT.) However, an alternative solution, shown by the 00Z ECMWF, 06Z GFDL, and 06Z NOGAPS models, is for Sandy to get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Such a storm would likely cause massive power outages and over a billion dollars in damage, as trees still in leaf take out power grids, and heavy rains and coastal storm surges create damaging flooding. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. A similar meteorological situation occurred in October 1991, when Hurricane Grace became absorbed by a Nor'easter, becoming the so-called "Perfect Storm" that killed 13 people and did over $200 million in damage in the Northeast U.S.


Figure 3. The Wednesday morning 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFS model was done 20 times at lower resolution with slightly varying initial conditions of temperature, pressure, and moisture to generate an ensemble of forecast tracks for Sandy (pink lines). These forecasts show substantial uncertainty in Sandy's path after Friday, with a minority of the forecasts taking Sandy to the northeast, out to sea, and the majority now predicting a landfall in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. The white line shows the official GFS forecast, run at higher resolution.

When might Sandy arrive in the mid-Atlantic and New England?
The models vary significantly in their predictions of when Sandy might arrive along the U.S. coast. The 06Z NOGAPS model predicts Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Saturday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model predicts that Sandy's rains won't affect North Carolina until Sunday, with the storm making landfall in New Jersey on Monday night. The GFDL model is in-between these extremes, taking Sandy ashore in Delaware on Monday morning. The trough of low pressure that Sandy will be interacting with just moved ashore over the Western U.S. this morning, and got sampled by the 12Z (8 am EDT) set of land-based balloon-borne radiosondes for the first time. One of the reasons the models have been in such poor agreement on the long-term fate of Sandy is that the strength of this trough has not been very well known, since it has been over the ocean where we have limited data. Now that the trough is over land, it will be better sampled, and the next set of 12Z model runs, due out this afternoon between 2 pm - 4pm EDT, will hopefully begin to converge on a common solution. I'll have an update this afternoon once the 12Z model runs are in.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Tony.

Tropical Storm Tony forms in the middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Tony formed Tuesday night in the middle Atlantic, becoming the nineteenth named storm of this very busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Tony has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, but is battling dry air , wind shear, and ocean temperatures that have fallen below 26°C. Tony will not threaten any land areas, and will likely be dead by Thursday night.

Tony's place in history
Tony is the Nineteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for third busiest Atlantic season since the HURDAT historical data base began in 1851. With five more weeks left before the November 30 end of hurricane season, 2012 is likely to move into second place for most named storms before the year is out, as all six prior Atlantic hurricane seasons with nineteen or more named storms have had at least one named storm form after October 24. Here, then, is a list of the seven busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
2012 (19 named storms)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)

It's pretty remarkable that we've now had three straight years with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic. But how many of these storms might not have been counted in the pre-satellite era (before 1960)? Here's a list of weak and short-lived storms from 2010 - 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era:

2012:
Tropical Storm Joyce
Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Tony

2011:
Tropical Storm Jose
Tropical Storm Franklin

2010:
Tropical Storm Gaston

Even if we correct for the possible over-count of approximately two named storms per year during the 2010, 2011, and 2012 hurricane seasons, compared to the pre-satellite era, there is nothing in the HURDAT data base that compares to the type of activity we've seen the past three years. One likely contributor to the unusual string of active years is the fact hurricane season has gotten longer, perhaps due to warming ocean temperatures. I discussed in a 2008 blog post that Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
MARK
17.25N/76.83W
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think they will get the worst of it once the eye pulls north of them.


The North coast has very bad conditions. Received a WU mail from someone in JA. 60 MPH on the North coast, tress down. The big risk for Kingston is the eyewall. Will be a close call for that.
503. eddye
ppl come join us in tropics chat 2 talk about sandy
Latest 12z CMC is equally as disturbing as the last GFS:



wow look at those waves..does that come crashing ashore when the eye hits?.........................
Quoting nigel20:
There are reports of damage roofs, downed power lines and fallen trees in Portland (eastern Jamaica)

Sorry to hear that....

Probably the heaviest rains are not there yet, so brace for that.
Sounds rough on the North coast.
Hoping that Sandy stays away from central VA....not liking the looks of it at all though.

Also, the persistence of these really cold cloud tops over the past day or so has really amazed me. Those thunderstorms have never really waned.

Quoting LargoFl:
wow look at those waves..does that come crashing ashore when the eye hits?.........................

... along with the surge as well.
Bad stuff there.
Quoting CloudGatherer:
Northeastern building codes are actually fairly good these days - fully capable of absorbing the winds a system like this would bring. The issue isn't buildings designed to code over the past few decades. It's that much of the building stock is significantly older. There are structures that are poorly maintained, or which were modified in ways that didn't preserve their designed strength. In Florida and on the Gulf Coast, such structures are regularly tested by strong systems. That's a little less common in the northeast, and when a really strong system hits, it may have more of an impact.

But it's not structural failure that I'm worried about.

The real damage will come in two other ways - surge flooding, and power outages. It doesn't much matter how strong your columns are, or what the designed wind loads might be, if there are six feet of water in your lobby. And the northeastern coast is extremely vulnerable to storm surge flooding. The other issue is that our strongest storms tend to be wintertime nor'easters. They hit after the leaves have fallen off the trees. If Sandy pays us a visit, though, it'll hit while we're at peak autumn foliage. Very pretty, but the leaves are mostly still attached. And that'll bring down powerlines across an enormous region, and take weeks to fully restore power.



yah don't get me wrong i'm not talking about severe wind racking and partial/full collapse of all structures, I am speaking in terms of total number of claims and the average bell curve dollar amount of a loss. shingles are not nailed down with as many nails, and thats just the tip of the iceberg.

i strongly agree with your statement about the age of buildings....i can't tell you how many losses I handled in Irene that were actually original Sears & Roebuck kit houses built at the turn of the 20th century.....

and your right, with the number of trees in the New England states there will be a TON of downed trees....They all love the trees up there, and I can't blame em.....the smell of the sugar maples is incredible, to say the least.....
Quoting tropicfreak:
Hoping that Sandy stays away from central VA....not liking the looks of it at all though.

Also, the persistence of these really cold cloud tops over the past day or so has really amazed me. Those thunderstorms have never really waned.


Concerned for Haiti too, with that set-up.
going to be some massive beach erosion on the east coast beaches.........
Euro is stronger earlier on, but is closest to florida more towards jacksonville than miami compared to the previous run.

Its landfall is closer to 940mbs than 930mb, so this might be the beginning of correcting the overdeepening.
Last year, an unusual earthquake preceded hurricane Irene.

Could something similar happen this year?





934mb on the coast of NC per the Euro
12z GFS is farther west

Yeah sunshine and roses over here..





She looks to be onshore now, I imagine unfortunately some my be in for a rude surprise by the south side of this storm.
That eye wall, per the most recent floater loop, looks like it is headed right towards Kingston.

Link
Go to Chat!!
Quoting ncstorm:
934mb on the coast of NC per the Euro
12z GFS is farther west

Yeah sunshine and roses over here..







NC give it to me straight up. what do you think for us?
Quoting SouthTampa:
I've gotta fly out of TPA on Friday evening to PIT, which looks to also be on the W edge of the storm. I already don't like to fly. Time to load up on Xanax and beer!
Just take two Benadryl and put a bib on to catch your drool when you pass out.
Quoting ncstorm:
934mb on the coast of NC per the Euro
12z GFS is farther west

Yeah sunshine and roses over here..





that run sure looks like florida gets some of this storm
NC looks to be in played according to the latest model runs
The new Euro stays stronger inland too, weakens at the great lakes still however ,faster than the GFS and appears to still hit near NYC

It corrected intensity a tad, but not by much....
will still probably have a better pull on the cold air than the previous run.
Quoting burrokeet:
North-eastern party of Kingston (Barbican) still very quiet - on and off rain, with an occasional moderate gust

Strange since I am hearing that St. Mary and Portland (both on the northern side of the island) are getting battered - I would have thought we were first in line


They have the strong onshore flow from the NE. The South side will get hit hard when the eye comes ashore in the next 2 hours.
525. 7544
all i can is wow to sandy
SEFL should not feel much from this not much rain bands past 80W and she should move nne maybe some wind
Quoting pottery:

... along with the surge as well.
Bad stuff there.
gee pottery this is awful,those poor people down there
Quoting kmanislander:


The North coast has very bad conditions. Received a WU mail from someone in JA. 60 MPH on the North coast, tress down. The big risk for Kingston is the eyewall. Will be a close call for that.
My son-in-law is in Mandeville and has already received damage to his roof.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The windfield will be disrupted but not too seriously, Sandy is a very big storm and wont linger over Cuba.
Wind speed reduction will be more significant than real disruption of the windfield.



The reduction is due to the disruption . The Sierra Maestra range is pretty imposing .
Prayers for Haiti and Jamaica and Cuba
531. 7544
with these new models will they up the ts watches to a warning soon for se fl tia
Very close shave for Florida if the 12z ECMWF verifies.
Crap, I guess I will go get test the generator tonight. I was really hoping that we would miss getting a hurricane this year. I don't remember getting one this late in the year for NC
Quoting 7544:
with these new models will they up the ts watches to a warning soon for se fl tia



did the new models shift or something i had to step out for second
Quoting K8eCane:


NC give it to me straight up. what do you think for us?


I dont like the trending to the west at all..gulp!

Nogaps has NOT falter in its path and still includes the entire east coast..this might be the model everyone should pay attention to
Quoting SouthTampa:
I've gotta fly out of TPA on Friday evening to PIT, which looks to also be on the W edge of the storm. I already don't like to fly. Time to load up on Xanax and beer!
just don't do the drinking at TPA... I tried that once and paid $13 for each lmao.

In all seriousness though, Tampa will not get much from Sandy except for a brisk NNE wind and maybe a couple of gusty showers.
Quoting ecupirate:
Crap, I guess I will go get test the generator tonight. I was really hoping that we would miss getting a hurricane this year. I don't remember getting one this late in the year for NC


Geez no hurricane
Quoting odinslightning:


it's a friggin shame about Haiti...what a f**ked up country run by idiots and thieves for 50 years.....They had the brains of a dodo when they cut down all the mahogany and failed to replant seedlings....

Haiti reminds me of the story "The Lorax" by Dr. Seuss.....

I think you need to check the History of Haiti, and not continue to believe what you have been told.
The problems in Haiti are NOT caused by the Haitian people.

It's a long story of Rape and Abuse by others.....
From 1:17 pm and the Jamaican Observer online:


Sandy Gully threatens Valentine Gardens, as Sandy nears
BY KIMMO MATTHEWS

Wednesday, October 24, 2012 | 1:17 PM

KINGSTON, Jamaica — Concerns of residents along Valentine Drive, Kingston have deepened as section of the Sandy Gully that runs along their community continues to erode as a result of heavy rains.

"We concerned and just hoping and praying it won't get worse," said one resident in the area whose house hangs precariously over the eroding gully wall.


Junior Works Minister Richard Azan this morning visited the area and has assured residents that he working to put things in place to provide as much assistance to residents as possible.


Gives us an idea of how devastating this storm will be for our friends in the Kingston region of Jamaica.

Euro, landfall on Eastern shore of VA. Pressure 939... yeah I'm definitely heading west if that occurred.
Quoting nigel20:

It has gotten really dark. Still no wind, but that should change soon.


Weird that you have no wind and yet someone else on this blog is reporting serious wind damage. Is that common in Jamaica? The island isn't that big.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
My son-in-law is in Mandeville and has already received damage to his roof.


Higher elevations have higher wind speeds than at sea level. Landfall very soon now
Quoting ecupirate:
Crap, I guess I will go get test the generator tonight. I was really hoping that we would miss getting a hurricane this year. I don't remember getting one this late in the year for NC


I think y'all might get some of the outer bands, but I seriously would doubt a landfall in NC. Much better chance of a brush against OBX (brush as in 50-100 miles off the coast) while the storm is in the process of transitioning into something extratropical.

Good idea on testing the generator - generators should be tested twice per year anyway (you never know what winter may bring).
Quoting ecupirate:
Crap, I guess I will go get test the generator tonight. I was really hoping that we would miss getting a hurricane this year. I don't remember getting one this late in the year for NC



Hugo was a very late storm as well....
Quoting chrisdscane:



did the new models shift or something i had to step out for second


Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Last year, an unusual earthquake preceded hurricane Irene.

Could something similar happen this year?







nice...I never thought of that
Quoting jeffs713:


I think y'all might get some of the outer bands, but I seriously would doubt a landfall in NC. Much better chance of a brush against OBX (brush as in 50-100 miles off the coast) while the storm is in the process of transitioning into something extratropical.

Good idea on testing the generator - generators should be tested twice per year anyway (you never know what winter may bring).



Yes i am thinking this too
Quoting LargoFl:
that run sure looks like florida gets some of this storm

Watch where the center passes over the Bahamas, Irene went over the Eastern Bahamas..Any deviation by Sandy west of Andros Island or near or west of Freeport going North would bring very squally conditions to Eastern Florida. That is what I am watching.
Quoting weatherskink:


The reduction is due to the disruption . The Sierra Maestra range is pretty imposing .


Not as much as you might think for systems like this. Mountains can do far stranger things to a systems structure than weaken it. My guess is that it will weaken to 70-75mph in the passing, then strengthen to 90-100mph in the Bahamas. Not entirely sure what the NHC is thinking that it won't intensify after Cuba.
Quoting pottery:

I think you need to check the History of Haiti, and not continue to believe what you have been told.
The problems in Haiti are NOT caused by the Haitian people.

It's a long story of Rape and Abuse by others.....



I never said it was the masses in Haiti...It was their leaders, there presidents....like Baby Doc....
Quoting ncstorm:


I dont like the trending to the west at all..gulp!

Nogaps has NOT falter in its path and still includes the entire east coast..this might be the model everyone should pay attention to


The NOGAPS has done very badly this season (for the last several seasons, actually). Its good to keep in the back of your head, but I personally don't give it much more weight than a GFS ensemble member. I follow the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF much more closely.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:




thx wasnt much of a change if I still dont think they will upgrade our watches to warnings yet
Quoting jeffs713:
Just take two Benadryl and put a bib on to catch your drool when you pass out.
I have the magic mix for long haul flights (pharmacist approved because I am a pharmacist): 4 beers, 0.5 mg Xanax and 1 Unisom (doxylamine). Too bad this is only a 2+ hr flight.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not as much as you might think for systems like this. Mountains can do far stranger things to a systems structure than weaken it. My guess is that it will weaken to 70-75mph in the passing, then strengthen to 90-100mph in the Bahamas. Not entirely sure what the NHC is thinking that it won't intensify after Cuba.

Shear is forecast to amp up as Sandy crosses Cuba, due to the incoming trough.
Jamaica the roar of the storm
is yet to come
12 more hrs before its done
Quoting SouthTampa:
I have the magic mix for long haul flights (pharmacist approved because I am a pharmacist): 4 beers, 0.5 mg Xanax and 1 Unisom (doxylamine). Too bad this is only a 2+ hr flight.


My daughter is a pharmacist...went to UNC chapel Hill and now practices in Owensboro KY
Quoting pottery:

I think you need to check the History of Haiti, and not continue to believe what you have been told.
The problems in Haiti are NOT caused by the Haitian people.

It's a long story of Rape and Abuse by others.....


I've never researched the deforestation of Haiti. However, do you know if others countries or organizations have attempted to re-plant the forests? It would be a major project but seems necessary.
Quoting ncstorm:


I dont like the trending to the west at all..gulp!

Nogaps has NOT falter in its path and still includes the entire east coast..this might be the model everyone should pay attention to

If the Nogaps is right then yeah Florida is much higher at risk for effects based on that run.
NAEFS at 60 hours..........
Magnitude
5.4
Date-Time
Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 17:56:00 UTC
Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 12:56:00 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
17.844°N, 81.690°W
Depth
32.7 km (20.3 miles)
Region
CAYMAN ISLANDS REGION
Distances
163 km (101 miles) SSW of George Town, Cayman Islands
171 km (106 miles) S of West Bay, Cayman Islands
405 km (251 miles) W of Montego Bay, Jamaica
443 km (275 miles) W of Mandeville, Jamaica
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 14.6 km (9.1 miles); depth +/- 7.1 km (4.4 miles)
Parameters
NST=434, Nph=454, Dmin=730.3 km, Rmss=1.02 sec, Gp= 29°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb000dcmr
Quoting jeffs713:


The NOGAPS has done very badly this season (for the last several seasons, actually). Its good to keep in the back of your head, but I personally don't give it much more weight than a GFS ensemble member. I follow the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF much more closely.


funny but the Doc mentions the Nogaps A LOT! and shall I remind you that it outperform ALL the models on Ernesto..sigh..the Nogaps just cant win for losing on this blog:)
Quoting sporteguy03:

Watch where the center passes over the Bahamas, Irene went over the Eastern Bahamas..Any deviation by Sandy west of Andros Island or near or west of Freeport going North would bring very squally conditions to Eastern Florida. That is what I am watching.


Irene was a purely tropical, tight, CAT 3. This situation "SHOULD" be a little different with Barclonic Forcing involved. All depends on when and what the interaction with the inverted trough is. If all the weather is dumped in the western semi as some of the models are indicating, it could be a very different experience. Especially if Sandy pauses/loops as the models are indicating this afternoon, some as far west as West End.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I've never researched the deforestation of Haiti. However, do you know if others countries or organizations have attempted to re-plant the forests? It would be a major project but seems necessary.


If they didn't have such a corrupt political system they would replant the mahogany.....It is a stark contrast when you stare at the DR and look at the border near Haiti....It is like night and day....
Quoting sporteguy03:

If the Nogaps is right then yeah Florida is much higher at risk for effects based on that run.
yes ive been watching that model all along..something just isnt right, the uncertainty on the NWS's part and the models as well
Quoting stormpetrol:


Never felt a thing, fortunately
Any bloggers on here from Jamaica? If so stay safe please!
Last comment for awhile, the Nogaps points out the scenario that was mentioned as possible by the doc. several blogs ago. I admire the NHC for not changing their track every run, and they been very good in general. Just saying looking at the Satellites in motion I can see where Nogaps gets its track from. Lastly I'm sure when all is said and done the NHC will give plenty of warning, if people are paying attention as they should be when a storm is to the south or se. Good luck to all.
571. 7544
Quoting sporteguy03:

If the Nogaps is right then yeah Florida is much higher at risk for effects based on that run.


has not budge one bit on where it wants to take sandy for days
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not as much as you might think for systems like this. Mountains can do far stranger things to a systems structure than weaken it. My guess is that it will weaken to 70-75mph in the passing, then strengthen to 90-100mph in the Bahamas. Not entirely sure what the NHC is thinking that it won't intensify after Cuba.

The NHC suspects it won't intensify after Cuba because of "increased shear".
I don't believe it though. I agree with you.
Quoting jeffs713:


I think y'all might get some of the outer bands, but I seriously would doubt a landfall in NC. Much better chance of a brush against OBX (brush as in 50-100 miles off the coast) while the storm is in the process of transitioning into something extratropical.

Good idea on testing the generator - generators should be tested twice per year anyway (you never know what winter may bring).


No one said a landfall in NC, I know I didnt..the models keep trending west which means a greater impact..that Euro model clearly showed at least 70mph winds for my area..
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
either way it goes, some nasty weather in store for florida this weekend..but afterwards a cold front will finally get here to me, about tuesday the lows in the 50's..yessss
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not as much as you might think for systems like this. Mountains can do far stranger things to a systems structure than weaken it. My guess is that it will weaken to 70-75mph in the passing, then strengthen to 90-100mph in the Bahamas. Not entirely sure what the NHC is thinking that it won't intensify after Cuba.


I'd take a guess at a disrupted core, especially if it plows through the most mountainous terrain of Cuba. It certainly is fine line and storms have behaved weird when they get near these areas. Issac and Ike never were never able to regenerate a core after disruption with Cuba.

Shear is expected to ramp up from late Thursday on. Still a lot of variables at play, especially 3 days out. Once Sandy emerges from Cuba I believe we are going to have a much more accurate grasp of the track and intensity.
Quoting SouthTampa:
I have the magic mix for long haul flights (pharmacist approved because I am a pharmacist): 4 beers, 0.5 mg Xanax and 1 Unisom (doxylamine). Too bad this is only a 2 hr flight.

Wow. That is more like a recipe for going to the ER. depressant anti-anxiety sedative. What could possibly go wrong? (why not toss some Ativan or Versed in there?)

edit: Since someone not related to this post called me out via WUmail - I posted this as a nursing student a semester away from graduating as an RN with a BSN - don't take the "magic mix" without doctor's orders - it isn't the best idea for continued health.
Quoting odinslightning:



I never said it was the masses in Haiti...It was their leaders, there presidents....like Baby Doc....

Point taken.
Papa Doc and Baby Doc were pretty unique in their style.....

But the stage had been set long before that, when Europe (and everyone else) blockaded Haiti because of their revolution.
They were cut off from the rest of the world for 100 years.

Incidentally, there is a very strong UN presence in Haiti now and for the past 10 years or so.
The money sent there has been enormous.
But nothing has changed. The Rape of Haiti continues. This time by the entities that manage the funds, to a large degree.

It's a tragedy with no end in sight. Very sad.
Quoting ncstorm:


No one said a landfall in NC, I know I didnt..the west it keeps coming, the worse the effects will be...that Euro model clearly showed at least 70mph winds for my area..



Oh Lordy. Im just gonna find my xanax bottle. I am aware of everything, but dont give a crap after about 2 of em. Mama and the boy can fend for theirself.
T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
MARK
17.30N/76.83W
Guys, guess where the GFS is taking Sandy now.
581. 7544
just asking but do you think sandy will have a bigger efffect on se fl than IRENE OR ISSAC or the same THANKS
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Guys, guess where the GFS is taking Sandy now.


We might not want to know. Give me an hour, then tell me.
Quoting ncstorm:


funny but the Doc mentions the Nogaps A LOT! and shall I remind you that it outperform ALL the models on Ernesto..sigh..the Nogaps just cant win for losing on this blog:)

Oh, I know. I'm going by how the NOGAPS has done overall. It hit on Ernesto - it also misses a lot. Its kinda like the 6th round QB that throws one incredible 4th quarter for a come-from-behind win... and loses 6 other games.
Miami fishermen are going to have a few days off..........FRIDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTH NORTHWEST
WINDS 30 TO 37 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS ALONG THE
COAST TO NORTH NORTHWEST 34 TO 41 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
55 KNOTS IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS 13 TO 15 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL
SEAS UP TO 19 FEET ALONG THE COAST AND UP TO 17 TO 21 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL UP TO 24 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
EXTREMELY ROUGH IN EXPOSED AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
Quoting kmanislander:


Never felt a thing, fortunately


Me neither.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Irene was a purely tropical, tight, CAT 3. This situation "SHOULD" be a little different with Barclonic Forcing involved. All depends on when and what the interaction with the inverted trough is. If all the weather is dumped in the western semi as some of the models are indicating, it could be a very different experience. Especially if Sandy pauses/loops as the models are indicating this afternoon, some as far west as West End.


I know Levi mentioned the NW quadrant possibly being the strongest and a path through the NW Bahamas would definitely bring worse weather to Florida. Your right though is the Eastern half get more weighted and what distance does it pass from Florida as it goes through the Bahamas.
Quoting K8eCane:



Oh Lordy. Im just gonna find my xanax bottle. I am aware of everything, but dont give a crap after about 2 of em. Mama and the boy can fend for theirself.



LOL!! waiting to see what the officials say about the trending west..
Quoting K8eCane:


We might not want to know. Give me an hour, then tell me.


The GFS is now taking sandy right into the NORTHEAST!
Quoting K8eCane:


We might not want to know. Give me an hour, then tell me.
LOL i ditto that
Quoting LargoFl:
LOL i ditto that


He must live in the NE
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The GFS is now taking sandy right into the NORTHEAST!
so the models are slowly coming into agreement, by friday they should know for sure and the bad warnings go out up there
mid 80's and a jump in humidity here in Mobile.....It feels more like an early June day or mid September day as opposed to a late October day....

All i can figure is that the humidity has increased tremendously due to Sally.....Nothing else to cause humidity like this this late in the year.....
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The GFS is now taking sandy right into the NORTHEAST!


Wow! Hope yall will be OK up there for sure
Quoting jeffs713:

Oh, I know. I'm going by how the NOGAPS has done overall. It hit on Ernesto - it also misses a lot. Its kinda like the 6th round QB that throws one incredible 4th quarter for a come-from-behind win... and loses 6 other games.


Im a big cheerleader for the Nogaps as the blog knows so I watch it a lot..funny but the Nogaps when it has been wrong always correct itself along with the other models and shows the right track..this is different..I have never seen the NOGAPS consistently showing a track and keep at it..we shall see if its just cooky again..
Quoting LargoFl:
so the models are slowly coming into agreement, by friday they should know for sure and the bad warnings go out up there


Yep, the snowicane scenario is looking even better with eatch run.
Quoting K8eCane:


Wow! Hope yall will be OK up there for sure


Lucky for me, I live in the upper midwest
Quoting ncstorm:


No one said a landfall in NC, I know I didnt..the models keep trending west which means a greater impact..that Euro model clearly showed at least 70mph winds for my area..

I know. I never said (or implied you did) either. When people hear "impact" they think "landfall". Landfall means the full brunt of the storm, while brush means you will get smacked, but not with the whole 2x4. If Sandy is 100 miles off the coast, OBX will get some TS winds without a doubt, as would the surrounding coastline.

Also... I wasn't aware the ECMWF had a 10m wind product. (I could be wrong, though... since I only see the ECMWF stuff y'all post)
OK the GFS HAS changed..156 hours..no more out to sea..
Quoting kmanislander:


Never felt a thing, fortunately
Neither did I lol.
Northern eyewall near to or just starting to come ashore

Anything over 40MPH and I will probably lose power. Its a bummer but its one of the downfalls of living close to the cost and around a lot of trees.
The thing is though, the GFS takes it into Maine/New Hamsphire while the Euro takes it into New Jersey.

That is a HUGE cone of uncertinty there.
Quoting kmanislander:
Northern eyewall near to or just starting to come ashore



That eyewall looks EPIC!
Euro bottoms out at 934 millibars just west of the mouth of the chesapeake bay, bringing extremely high winds to the whole are october 29-30

Then it clips the delmarva peninsula, bringing extremely high winds there.

It finally makes landfall on the southern edge of New Jersey before moving inland into Pennsylvania.

Right now North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey are in the most trouble.

Delaware and Maryland are gonna get it if the ECMWF has its way.
One of the web cam images from Jamaica.

Pottery, I agree with you, its a shame when all this money goes down there and disappears. Seems like it should be equipment and food only and people sent down to teach and instruct people how to build an infrastructure.But its pretty much the same crap all over the world. Pull on peoples heart strings and screw the ones that need help. Won't start on birth control.
Quoting LargoFl:
OK the GFS HAS changed..156 hours..no more out to sea..


Maybe mother nature is going to teach Wall Street a little lesson...
Quoting FunnelVortex:
The thing is though, the GFS takes it into Maine/New Hamsphire while the Euro takes it into New Jersey.

That is a HUGE cone of uncertinty there.

Especially with how big the circulation will likely be once it is that far north.
Mammoth hurricane.
Quoting sporteguy03:


I know Levi mentioned the NW quadrant possibly being the strongest and a path through the NW Bahamas would definitely bring worse weather to Florida. Your right though is the Eastern half get more weighted and what distance does it pass from Florida as it goes through the Bahamas.


If it gets to west end and the weather is packed in the west we would be really, really close to the 50K sustained winds. Granted that would be a "Worst" case scenario but, it is possible. That would throw people for a loop for sure. Way too close for comfort to get complacent, IMO. Look at what happened to Charley.
The bottom line is the forecast for Sandy beyond the Bahamas remains uncertain to say the least.
Quoting jeffs713:

Wow. That is more like a recipe for going to the ER. depressant + anti-anxiety + sedative. What could possibly go wrong? (why not toss some Ativan or Versed in there?)
A little hyperbole here, but hey, since we're playing: "why not toss some Ativan or Versed in there?". That would be duplicate therapy - Ativan (lorazepam), Versed (midazolam) and Xanax (alprazolam) are all benzodiazepines... "What could possibly go wrong?" Respiratory depression is the most likely thing that could go wrong.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Awesome pic/animation (post# 602)! Only one thing I might ask... could you post a still with a link to the image, instead of the animation? Its going to nuke loading times for the blog as an animation.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Euro bottoms out at 934 millibars just west of the mouth of the chesapeake bay, bringing extremely high winds to the whole are october 29-30

Then it clips the delmarva peninsula, bringing extremely high winds there.

It finally makes landfall on the southern edge of New Jersey before moving inland into Pennsylvania.

Right now North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey are in the most trouble.

Delaware and Maryland are gonna get it if the ECMWF has its way.


No matter where it hits, the superstorm/snowicane/whateveryouwanttocallit scenario is almost certin. People MUST prepare!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Euro bottoms out at 934 millibars just west of the mouth of the chesapeake bay, bringing extremely high winds to the whole are october 29-30

Then it clips the delmarva peninsula, bringing extremely high winds there.

It finally makes landfall on the southern edge of New Jersey before moving inland into Pennsylvania.

Right now North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey are in the most trouble.

Delaware and Maryland are gonna get it if the ECMWF has its way.


I am ready here in VA. So not ready to lose power especially if temperatures after the storm will dip below freezing!
New Jersey has changed its forecast...............AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
108 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS A
TROPICAL SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WE HAVE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH A DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
PASSING SHOWER NORTH OF PHILLY AS WELL PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ DUE TO THE FRONT. HAD TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE LATEST
METAR OBS. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN
BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS, SO TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR THE SOUTH
AND DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN NW NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHER AREAS AS WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIPPLE THROUGH THE RISING MID LEVEL FLOW...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE
EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD FORM IN PLACE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPREAD OUT TO JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS
(EXCEPT PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE. THE 0000 UTC GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...BUT EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE TOP OF THE INVERSION FOR
STRATUS. BASED ON THE ABOVE...ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH SHOULD
BECOME CLOUDY.

THE NEXT PROBLEM IS FOG AND DRIZZLE. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AN
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...WHERE THE FLOW IS MODESTLY
UPSLOPE. ELSEWHERE...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR...BUT DENSITY IS
IN QUESTION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS COULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
TO COOL THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AND INDUCE DENSER FOG TO FORM.

FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...BUT NOT HIT IT TOO HARD.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT...SYNOPTICALLY...HAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST IS A FAVORED PATTERN FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE REASSESSED BY LATER SHIFTS.

THE LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY THE 0000 UTC GFS ALLOWS
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES. SINCE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE THE GFS TIMING...LOWS WERE BASED
MORE ON A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARDS. WITH MAINLY LIGHT
EAST WINDS OFF OF THE ATLANTIC, A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB MODEL TEMPS STILL YIELD
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH
THE LIGHT EAST FLOW, THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
FRIDAY, AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED. SKY COVER WAS
INCREASED IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST AND ALSO THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HAVE THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK OF SANDY, BUT SOME GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. STILL, OTHER
MODEL DATA RECURVES SANDY MORE SHARPLY AND TAKES THE SYSTEM MORE
EAST AND OUT TO SEA. IN COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD, WE HAVE MADE
SMALL CHANGES TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED FCST. AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
COME TO CLOSER AGREEMENT, ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE TO THIS
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, THE INTERACTION OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND THE TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. AS THIS IS A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I've never researched the deforestation of Haiti. However, do you know if others countries or organizations have attempted to re-plant the forests? It would be a major project but seems necessary.

The forest were removed to provide building material and cooking fuel for a starving Nation.
One would think that after all the billions of dollars sent to Haiti by the World Bank and others, re-forestation would have been started at least.
But it never was.....

anyway, enough of that.
Quoting SouthTampa:
A little hyperbole here, but hey, since we're playing: "why not toss some Ativan or Versed in there?". That would be duplicate therapy - Ativan (lorazepam), Versed (midazolam) and Xanax (alprazolam) are all benzodiazepines... "What could possibly go wrong?" Respiratory depression is the most likely thing that could go wrong.

I know. That's why I tossed them in. :) All 3 of the drugs in the magic mix have sedative properties.
Quoting kmanislander:
Northern eyewall near to or just starting to come ashore



Almost fully closed!
Quoting jeffs713:

Especially with how big the circulation will likely be once it is that far north.


Now thats scary.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


No matter where it hits, the superstorm/snowicane/whateveryouwanttocallit scenario is almost certin. People MUST prepare!


Not really. It is still 5 or 6 days out. Far from certain. How many times have you seen the forecast change in 5 or 6 days?
Eye is about to hit Jamaica. Now you guys know I don't do "wobbles", but did the eye take a little jog west?

NJ...FOR NOW, THE INTERACTION OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND THE TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. AS THIS IS A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
Quoting AllStar17:


Not really. It is still 5 or 6 days out. Far from certain. How many times have you seen the forecast change in 5 or 6 days?


We dont know where it is going to hit, people have to be aware.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


If it gets to west end and the weather is packed in the west we would be really, really close to the 50K sustained winds. Granted that would be a "Worst" case scenario but, it is possible. That would throw people for a loop for sure. Way too close for comfort to get complacent, IMO. Look at what happened to Charley.


If I read or heard correctly with a storm that is extratropical, there are no quadrants..Florida will have a tropical storm but all points northward could be dealing with a powerful noreaster..
is it possible the reason the ECMWF has Sandy going into Mid-Atlantic - New England because of Tony's presence??
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


If it gets to west end and the weather is packed in the west we would be really, really close to the 50K sustained winds. Granted that would be a "Worst" case scenario but, it is possible. That would throw people for a loop for sure. Way too close for comfort to get complacent, IMO. Look at what happened to Charley.

The way you explained it would be how the NoGaps sees the impacts on Florida.
Take a look at some webcam live video from Kingston. They are about to enter the eye!

Kingston Jamaica Webcam
Quoting Grothar:
Eye is about to hit Jamaica. Now you guys know I don't do "wobbles", but did the eye take a little jog west?


Yep, then bounced back east.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not as much as you might think for systems like this. Mountains can do far stranger things to a systems structure than weaken it. My guess is that it will weaken to 70-75mph in the passing, then strengthen to 90-100mph in the Bahamas. Not entirely sure what the NHC is thinking that it won't intensify after Cuba.

There was a storm, I think it was Fay, that went all the way through DR mountains, and we all know the damages she caused
Quoting Grothar:
Eye is about to hit Jamaica. Now you guys know I don't do "wobbles", but did the eye take a little jog west?



It has been wobbling a bit from this morning but looks still to be due N to me. It will be interesting to see if passage over the mountainous terrain throws the track off in one direction or another.

This has happened before with other systems.
Quoting kap333:
is it possible the reason the ECMWF has Sandy going into Mid-Atlantic - New England because of Tony's presence??


No.
Quoting Grothar:


Uhhhh...
Quoting islander101010:
good movies with hurricane landfalls i know two. columbus movie and key largo with bogart & becall
How about Hurricane with Dorothy Lamore. Pretty old but good scene of wind and storm surge. She ties herself to a Banyan tree.
I'm putting my middle finger up at the Euro right now..Ever sinced I teased the cmc the models have had it out for me.So now they send a super storm for me of epic porpotons.Right now I have that "believe it when I see it" attitude.My local mets aren't all that excited about it either but they are questioning it.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


We dont know where it is going to hit, people have to be aware.


If it hits anywhere.
Quoting sporteguy03:

The way you explained it would be how the NoGaps sees the impacts on Florida.


I feel much better then :-)

Although, the NoGaps is right on occasion.
Interesting times ahead..
Is Pennsylvania going to be majorly impacted???
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm putting my middle finger up at the Euro right now..Ever sinced I teased the cmc the models have had it out for me.So now they send a super storm for me of epic porpotons.Right now I have that "believe it when I see it" attitude.My local mets aren't all that excited about it either but they are questioning it.


Which is the correct mentality at this point. Ignore some of the people on this blog who jump to conclusions at the snap of a finger or one model run.
From the Taunton MA office's 1:47pm discussion:

OF COURSE...THIS SCENARIO HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS. LOOKING FROM A
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE AND EVALUATING THE LITERATURE...WE SEE
PATTERNS FROM HAZEL IN 1954 AND THE GREAT GALE OF 1878 IN WHERE
TROPICAL SYSTEMS DID NOT CURVE SIGNIFICANTLY BACK TO THE WEST...AND
THIS IS THE SAME CONCERNING A CLIMATOLOGICAL LITERARY REVIEW
EVALUATING LATE SYSTEM SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN PROXIMITY TO BERMUDA.
HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN AWKWARD MOVING SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
REGION SUCH AS ESTHER IN 1961 THAT ACTUALLY MADE A LARGE LOOP OFF
CAPE COD BEFORE MOVING JUST EAST OF THE CAPE INTO WESTERN MAINE IN
SEPTEMBER 1961.

NOTING SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE
SYSTEM...WHETHER AS A TROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM AND BRINGING IT
TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS OP RUN AS WELL AS SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS AND SOME OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE. ONE OF THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS HAS BEEN THE OP RUN OF
THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN BULLISH IN WRAPPING THE SYSTEM NWWD BACK
TO THE COAST. THE CANADIAN GGEM HAS BEEN LESS CONSISTENT AND ITS OP
RUN ACTUALLY KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE THOUGH SOME OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME BACKING.

THERE IS NO GOOD SOLN /ENSEMBLE OR OPERATIONAL/ TO FOLLOW AT THIS
TIME...SO STUCK CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS WITH EITHER A COMPLETE
MISS /HIGH SEAS ON THE OPEN WATERS/...A CLOSE PASS /STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS POSSIBLY LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING AND ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES/...OR A DIRECT HIT /STRONG WINDS WITH PARTIALLY FOLIATED
TREES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...HIGH SEAS
COMBINED WITH WINDS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE...AND
FINALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN INTERIOR FLOODING/.

THERE WILL BE MANY MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THAT SHOULD GIVE US MORE CONFIDENCE TO THIS SYSTEM/S
ULTIMATE TRACK. THE BEST ADVICE IS TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR EVERY SCENARIO...BEST OR WORST CASE.
-----------

Let's just say that when you're looking to the Great Gale of 1878 for guidance, you're looking at a somewhat unusual system. That's also - for those scoring at home - the worst hurricane on record for the Baltimore/Washington area.
almost looks like two storms huh...........
Early 18Z

648. CloudGatherer 3:15 PM AST on October 24, 2012

Most notably:
NOTING SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE
SYSTEM...WHETHER AS A TROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM AND BRINGING IT
TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS OP RUN AS WELL AS SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS AND SOME OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE. ONE OF THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS HAS BEEN THE OP RUN OF
THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN BULLISH IN WRAPPING THE SYSTEM NWWD BACK
TO THE COAST. THE CANADIAN GGEM HAS BEEN LESS CONSISTENT AND ITS OP
RUN ACTUALLY KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE THOUGH SOME OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME BACKING.
Good afternoon everyone, once again I see I missed a lot. I saw the 12z GFS, dang. -___- Also I noticed the other models stay the same with having her go to the NE. Sandy is looking more like a hurricane(I know she is one) and she could hit higher than 80-85mph. The NE could really get something from Sandy.
2PM going west now!
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED
BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL
DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE
SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR
REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

--------------------------------------

THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION
EVOLVES...

Not sure if that has been posted yet.
SE FL!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Which model is that? Those winds seem very high.
000
WTNT63 KNHC 241918
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH...
130 KM/H.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, once again I see I missed a lot. I saw the 12z GFS, dang. -___- Sandy is looking more like a hurricane(I know she is one) and she could hit higher than 80-85mph. The NE could really get something from Sandy.

Cause we really want her here... -_- not
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SE FL!


A big question mark is rather fitting ATM.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SE FL!
geez
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm putting my middle finger up at the Euro right now..Ever sinced I teased the cmc the models have had it out for me.So now they send a super storm for me of epic porpotons.Right now I have that "believe it when I see it" attitude.My local mets aren't all that excited about it either but they are questioning it.


Other models are showing it too now, including the GFS
662. wpb
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
good post
Quoting Slamguitar:


A big question mark is rather fitting ATM.


LOL. Yes.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Euro bottoms out at 934 millibars just west of the mouth of the chesapeake bay, bringing extremely high winds to the whole are october 29-30

Then it clips the delmarva peninsula, bringing extremely high winds there.

It finally makes landfall on the southern edge of New Jersey before moving inland into Pennsylvania.

Right now North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey are in the most trouble.

Delaware and Maryland are gonna get it if the ECMWF has its way.


Been watching, in fact can't seem to take my eyes off of it right now. Chesapeake Bay water front in SE VA.

NOAA surge model starting to show things to come, this is where it starts to get real nerve racking!

No wind and faded sunshine in Kingston at the moment:

Link
Quoting jeffs713:

I know. I never said (or implied you did) either. When people hear "impact" they think "landfall". Landfall means the full brunt of the storm, while brush means you will get smacked, but not with the whole 2x4. If Sandy is 100 miles off the coast, OBX will get some TS winds without a doubt, as would the surrounding coastline.

Also... I wasn't aware the ECMWF had a 10m wind product. (I could be wrong, though... since I only see the ECMWF stuff y'all post)


Yeah..Allan's site has one now..
TROPICAL UPDATE
__________________________
I'll be uploading another graphic on the potential NE impact shortly...

Tropical Storm Sandy



click on the pic for bigger 4x size
WTNT63 KNHC 241918
TCUAT3

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH...
130 KM/H.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SE FL!


That's a big kink. Interestingly enough is just east of the furthest east point of FL.
The ECMWF places the largest snow risk over New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, and Virginia (a tad in southern Virginia)

Amounts range from 3-10 inches, with the highest amounts in WV, and PA

7 days so this will change a lot.
Quoting AllStar17:


Which is the correct mentality at this point. Ignore some of the people on this blog who jump to conclusions at the snap of a finger or one model run.


Thats because most of the guys in this blog (including me) are weather obsessed nerds.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Which model is that? Those winds seem very high.


Keep in mind no inland metro areas are under any kind of watches for now. Coastal sections could get a warning at 5 though. Brezzy to windy aross mainland sfl is whats in the cards for the moment.

Windfield expansion may cause few occasional gusts over 40-45 mph.
Storm Surge may be an issues around the Chesapeake Bay area... Ocean City, Md floods when it rains and Baltimore's harbor is only like an inch above the water in places
Quoting HurricaneKing:
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED
BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL
DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE
SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR
REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

--------------------------------------

THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION
EVOLVES...

Not sure if that has been posted yet.

That is telling - they want to drop a BUNCH of data into the models - asking for special soundings like this is the equivalent of flying the NOAA G-4 around a storm every 12 hours.
...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...
3:20 PM EDT Wed Oct 24
Location: 17.9°N 76.7°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SE FL!


A lot of ensembles, and the ECMWF land this in NJ
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
2PM going west now!
This little kink in the models is concerning for NW Bahamas and SE Fl. It's become more pronounced since yesterday. And it looks like a good slow down in that region too. YIKES
Quoting hurricane23:


Keep in mind no inland metro areas are under any kind of watches for now. Coastal sections could get a warning at 5 though. Brezzy to windy aross mainland sfl is whats in the cards for the moment.


2 miles from the beach in Jupiter myself.
looks like the GFS has picked up the speed of sandy....
Quoting AllStar17:
648. CloudGatherer 3:15 PM AST on October 24, 2012

Most notably:
NOTING SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS TRYING TO CAPTURE THE
SYSTEM...WHETHER AS A TROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM AND BRINGING IT
TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS OP RUN AS WELL AS SEVERAL
OTHER MODELS AND SOME OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE. ONE OF THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS HAS BEEN THE OP RUN OF
THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN BULLISH IN WRAPPING THE SYSTEM NWWD BACK
TO THE COAST. THE CANADIAN GGEM HAS BEEN LESS CONSISTENT AND ITS OP
RUN ACTUALLY KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE THOUGH SOME OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME BACKING.
Yeah, there's a huge amount of uncertainty. We have essentially no skill at predicting the path of systems more than five days out. But on some of the model runs - the 12z and 18z - we're now moving to the outer edge of that five day envelope. This forecast came a little late to pick them up. But they're clustering more tightly on a solution, showing the storm moving a little further east early in the period, and then recurving to the west to strike the northeastern United States.

Could the track change? Sure. In fact, this far out, it's guaranteed to change. But as we move into the five-day envelope, it's not too early to start fretting.
Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah..Allan's site has one now..

Gotcha. I didn't know that.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL UPDATE
__________________________
I'll be uploading another graphic on the potential NE impact shortly...

Tropical Storm Sandy



click on the pic for bigger 4x size


115mph is a lotta bit high, IMO.
where in the world is Jim Cantore????....or maybe the question is where in the world is Jim Cantore gonna start reporting from???
Sandy is following her FIRST forecast pretty well so far.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL UPDATE
__________________________
I'll be uploading another graphic on the potential NE impact shortly...

Tropical Storm Sandy



click on the pic for bigger 4x size


It's not at all out of the possibility that Sandy could make minimum CAT 3 before Cuba. She just skipped and bounced east of the mountains of Jamaica.
SNOW???

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
The ECMWF places the largest snow risk over New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, and Virginia (a tad in southern Virginia)

Amounts range from 3-10 inches, with the highest amounts in WV, and PA

7 days so this will change a lot.
Quoting jeffs713:

Gotcha. I didn't know that.



115mph is a lotta bit high, IMO.


Im either 110-115..I think the storm can make it.
Rain coming!
Quoting AllStar17:


If it hits anywhere.


You think it will go through the "Windward Passage'? (private joke) How goes it Allstar?
I would say SE FL
Quoting odinslightning:
where in the world is Jim Cantore????....or maybe the question is where in the world is Jim Cantore gonna start reporting from???
Is it just me or is the NHC being very conservative with the intensity of Sandy while over me? If so... that would have been a problem in terms of school closure -- luckily they did shut down schools for Tomorrow and likely will be closing Friday.
Quoting Bayside:


Been watching, in fact can't seem to take my eyes off of it right now. Chesapeake Bay water front in SE VA.

NOAA surge model starting to show things to come, this is where it starts to get real nerve racking!



Hey Bayside - we got transferred to Rhode Island (Newport) so I am watching this one right along with you. Although I am not worried this time about surge, but rainfall amounts.
Sure do miss the southern Chesapeake Bay...
No doubt this will be a very tough long-term track forecast as noted by one of the NWS discussions posted below in terms of the US.

A "wobble/pause" over the Northern Bahamas and a "reverse-S" off the East Coast with a turn back towards the NW later in the forecast period is a lot for the models to digest at the moment.................

Everyone on the East Coast just needs to keep a close eye on this one for the time being as NHC makes track adjustments over the next few days.

Jamaica and Cuba/Bahamas first.
has levi posted any trop. tidbits lately??? off to check.... brb :)
. Fringe effects expected as Sandy moves well east of the area...

Tropical Storm Sandy is expected to move well east of the northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia area and coastal waters this
weekend. As the storm moves by the local area it will be beginning
to lose its tropical characteristics and will be expanding in size.
Because of that we will feel some impacts in the coastal areas but
they will be similar to a strong local northeaster.

Marine impacts...
due to the pressure gradient between the storm and the high pressure
to the west we may see frequent gusts to gale force over the marine
areas through the weekend. As these winds will not be directly due to
the circulation from the tropical storm a gale watch has been issued
for our coastal waters. Seas 20 to 60 miles offshore may reach 20
feet with large breaking waves affecting inlets.

Coastal impacts...
it will become breezy to windy over our coastal counties as Sandy
moves by the area. The strongest winds are likely along the
immediate beaches... the Intracoastal Waterway and large bodies of
water such as the St Johns and turtle rivers. Winds along the
beaches could occasionally gust between 35 and 40 mph Friday through
Sunday morning. Objects which might be blown around by high winds
should be secured. High surf in excess of 7 feet is likely and minor
to moderate coastal flooding could occur at or near the time of high
tide Friday through Sunday. A high risk of rip currents is likely
over the weekend and surf conditions will be very rough and
choppy.

Futher statements will be issues as necessary.
. Fringe effects expected as Sandy moves well east of the area...

Tropical Storm Sandy is expected to move well east of the northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia area and coastal waters this
weekend. As the storm moves by the local area it will be beginning
to lose its tropical characteristics and will be expanding in size.
Because of that we will feel some impacts in the coastal areas but
they will be similar to a strong local northeaster.

Marine impacts...
due to the pressure gradient between the storm and the high pressure
to the west we may see frequent gusts to gale force over the marine
areas through the weekend. As these winds will not be directly due to
the circulation from the tropical storm a gale watch has been issued
for our coastal waters. Seas 20 to 60 miles offshore may reach 20
feet with large breaking waves affecting inlets.

Coastal impacts...
it will become breezy to windy over our coastal counties as Sandy
moves by the area. The strongest winds are likely along the
immediate beaches... the Intracoastal Waterway and large bodies of
water such as the St Johns and turtle rivers. Winds along the
beaches could occasionally gust between 35 and 40 mph Friday through
Sunday morning. Objects which might be blown around by high winds
should be secured. High surf in excess of 7 feet is likely and minor
to moderate coastal flooding could occur at or near the time of high
tide Friday through Sunday. A high risk of rip currents is likely
over the weekend and surf conditions will be very rough and
choppy.

Futher statements will be issues as necessary.

Well it doesn't look like It will be that bad in my area.Probably some wind(30mph) and rain.We don't need any more rain because we have had enough all ready..
Quoting Grothar:


You think it will go through the "Windward Passage'? (private joke) How goes it Allstar?


I don't know....maybe :P. Actually, that wouldn't be a bad thing because Sandy would be EAST of the forecast track. I'm doing pretty well...and for the East Coast's sake, hope Sandy (or Post-Tropical Sandy) stays away. How about you? My avatar isn't very up to date.
Wow SE FL 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE!! at 54HR






Most recent microwave pass shows the eye and eyewall. Sandy is taking advantage of good conditions in the Caribbean and Jamaica shouldn't affect her too much at all.
Keeping an eye on this from here on Long Island. No one seems to know about it or care much. I shrugged it off this past weekend when I saw the far out models. But now? Who knows. Will be interesting to track this one.
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:
Keeping an eye on this from here on Long Island. No one seems to know about it or care much. I shrugged it off this past weekend when I saw the far out models. But now? Who knows. Will be interesting to track this one.
very early next week will be your bad times, stay safe up there
THEN



NOW





Shifting west guys
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


2 miles from the beach in Jupiter myself.


Few emails from co-workers thinking all of mainland sfl under watch at the moment. For those with questions keep checking HERE.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im either 110-115..I think the storm can make it.

I'm going to guess 90. The space between Jamaica and Cuba isn't very big, and both sides have significant mountainous terrain. It *does* have good TCHP values of 100+, which works in its favor. Overall, I just think the mountains (especially the Sierra Maestra) in addition to a short period of time will work against Sandy hitting cat 3.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SE FL!


That is getting way to close. Hopefully the shear affects it by them.
Quoting CoopsWife:


Hey Bayside - we got transferred to Rhode Island (Newport) so I am watching this one right along with you. Although I am not worried this time about surge, but rainfall amounts.
Sure do miss the southern Chesapeake Bay...


Hey, nice to see you. Thanks for the shout out. I think the pucker factor is really going up for the whole east coast. I know a lot of people around me are well aware of this system and don't live anywhere near the proximity to the water that I do. It seems like we just did this last year... Good luck to you and yours!
...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...
3:20 PM EDT Wed Oct 24
Location: 17.9°N 76.7°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
Quoting FunnelVortex:
THEN



NOW





Shifting west guys


the 3-day forecast was spot on, though.

From a Local Meteorologist here where I live.
FYI his name is Justin Berk.

"The Perfect Storm? It looks like The Day After Tomorrow here on the latest GFS model. FOR THE RECORD- many of you know I don't want to hype anything and with this storm have been trying to down play it. I am not certifying this model hitting between Boston and Portland with the equivalent of a Cat 2 hurricane, or the European hit on New York City... but the atmosphere is going to do something special. I see the storm curving out to sea and then pulling west (like I said yesterday). How far west is the question. This indicates a loop into NY State and then a little south. The arctic air reaches the coast of North Carolina... and throw in a clipper storm in Missouri??? Crazy, huh?
*I can support strong winds spread up and down the east coast... as for how much rain or will it snow- let's not go there yet. There are more important things sort out like the track first. Like I said the past few days, Thursday is when I will start to feel more confident in doing that. I hope you are here with me to follow it together, and beware of anyone hyping this. There are many other mets hesitant to approach this too soon, with good reason. For now, I am just sharing what I see with you :-)"


a link to the image because for some reason I can't post it.
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/15649 5_10151206793378476_1519025376_n.jpg
Good afternoon. I'm not exactly liking this, lol:

Quoting jeffs713:


the 3-day forecast was spot on, though.



Yeah, that was the THREE DAY forecast.

Everyone knows 3 days is easy as hell to forecast.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. I'm not exactly liking this, lol:



I dont like the looks of this either, if that model is correct, it will pull down a canadian airmass and give me an arctic blast.

I HATE the cold!
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Yeah, that was the THREE DAY forecast.

Everyone knows 3 days is easy as hell to forecast.


Debby? Isaac?


Jamaica pokes Sandy in the eye...

(Will Sandy still be categorized as a Hurricane at 5pm?)
Jamaica's getting pounded:

Quoting Bayside:


Hey, nice to see you. Thanks for the shout out. I think the pucker factor is really going up for the whole east coast. I know a lot of people around me are well aware of this system and don't live anywhere near the proximity to the water that I do. It seems like we just did this last year... Good luck to you and yours!


I'm in Down Town Miami during the day, and only 7 miles from the bay at home. There are a few of us here watching... :-)
The 12z Euro worries me...
Will recon get into Sandy before landfall on Cuba?
Quoting Levi32:


Debby? Isaac?


I mean the storm's general direction.
Jamaica radar anyone, link?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Jamaica's getting pounded:



They are in the eye right now!
Quoting Articuno:
From a Local Meteorologist here where I live.
FYI his name is Justin Berk.

"The Perfect Storm? It looks like The Day After Tomorrow here on the latest GFS model. FOR THE RECORD- many of you know I don't want to hype anything and with this storm have been trying to down play it. I am not certifying this model hitting between Boston and Portland with the equivalent of a Cat 2 hurricane, or the European hit on New York City... but the atmosphere is going to do something special. I see the storm curving out to sea and then pulling west (like I said yesterday). How far west is the question. This indicates a loop into NY State and then a little south. The arctic air reaches the coast of North Carolina... and throw in a clipper storm in Missouri??? Crazy, huh?
*I can support strong winds spread up and down the east coast... as for how much rain or will it snow- let's not go there yet. There are more important things sort out like the track first. Like I said the past few days, Thursday is when I will start to feel more confident in doing that. I hope you are here with me to follow it together, and beware of anyone hyping this. There are many other mets hesitant to approach this too soon, with good reason. For now, I am just sharing what I see with you :-)"


a link to the image because for some reason I can't post it.
https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/15649 5_10151206793378476_1519025376_n.jpg

In what part of Maryland do you live again?.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
SE FL!



the pattern of the track ensembles combined look like a ? symbol.
I have a question..If Sandy makes a huge impact on the North-east(like some of the crazy a__ model runs are showing) could it be retired?
Currently, Broward Schools have canceled outdoor activities for Thursday, they are off for a Teacher Workday on Friday already. No word on Dade schools as of yet.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. I'm not exactly liking this, lol:



I think this is gonna resemble the Hurricane of 1804 in a lot of ways for the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states(wouldn't doubt it if someone gets 3-4 feet of snow)!!!
Hey Levi What are the chances that Sandy gets pulled west by Cuba like what happened with Isaac??
Quoting Levi32:


Debby? Isaac?
This whole situation about Sandy hitting the northeast with winds, snow, and crap, reminds me of that move The Day After Tomorrow
Quoting Bayside:


Been watching, in fact can't seem to take my eyes off of it right now. Chesapeake Bay water front in SE VA.

NOAA surge model starting to show things to come, this is where it starts to get real nerve racking!



Hey there fellow Virginian! I'm watching this storm NW of you here in Richmond. As for me, I am not looking for another Isabel or Irene, I'm ready for that four letter word that begins with S and ends with W.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. I'm not exactly liking this, lol:



I'm under the top part of the "L", the top part of the bloody "L"!

If this pans out, I'm going to get LOTS of beer and be a stereotypical Canadian in preparation for the end of the world.
The wind is howling!!!!!!!!! Sandy is here!!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I have a question..If Sandy makes a huge impact on the North-east(like some of the crazy a__ model runs are showing) could it be retired?


Most likley
Quoting washingtonian115:
I have a question..If Sandy makes a huge impact on the North-east(like some of the crazy a__ model runs are showing) could it be retired?

First off, the models might not be that crazy as they all basically show a hit. If she is tropical and she hits she would be retired but if extra-tropical I don't think so.
Now Cuba's turn... how will Sandy fair that ride.
poor jamaica! afternoon everywhere.
Quoting hurricane23:


Few emails from co-workers thinking all of mainland sfl under watch at the moment. For those with questions keep checking HERE.

That's a good link, thanks. Here's another one:

Link
The northern portion of the eye wall its already coming offshore. There are just 20 miles in that part of Jamaica fr. south to north.
Unfortunately if Sandy does come up the east coast/backs into the NE, which it now appears pretty likely will happen, there will be a major surge/coastal flooding/beach erosion problem as it will be a very large storm with a large windfield capable of pushing a lot of water in front of it. Tides will also be very astronomically high when it gets up here.
Quoting weatherbro:


I think this is gonna resemble the Hurricane of 1804 in a lot of ways for the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic states(wouldn't doubt it if someone gets 3-4 feet of snow)!!!
I highly doubt that..3-4 feet of snow?.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Most likley


That's like asking, "If I put a an AK47 to my head and pull the trigger, any chance I may kill myself."
S FL 12 NAM at 57HR

60HR 12Z GFS
Quoting washingtonian115:
I highly doubt that..3-4 feet of snow?.


3-4 feet of snow is not happening.
Quoting aprinz1979:


That's like asking, "If I put a an AK47 to my head and pull the trigger, any chance I may kill myself."


If its loaded, same situation goes with Sandy, it may be loaded with enough energy, or it may not.
174HR GFS 12 Snow
Quoting AllStar17:


3-4 feet of snow is not happening.


1 foot is possible, more likley 3-5 inches.
GFS

NAM
Quoting kimoskee:
The wind is howling!!!!!!!!! Sandy is here!!!!


Are you near or in Kingston ?
Quoting kimoskee:
The wind is howling!!!!!!!!! Sandy is here!!!!


Where are you located, kimoskee?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Unfortunately if Sandy does come up the east coast/backs into the NE, which it now appears pretty likely will happen, there will be a major surge/coastal flooding/beach erosion problem as it will be a very large storm with a large windfield capable of pushing a lot of water in front of it. Tides will also be very astronomically high when it gets up here.

Not to mention the flooding rains and heavy snow that people would see. High winds would cause major power outages in areas with snow and power outages else where. Some models keep it strong as it goes inland and Sandy's affects could be very far reaching in the US.
If the models play out I sincerely hope people from Jersey to Maine/Vermont take this seriously.....I hope they aren't gonna just blow this off and say "They said the same crap about Irene".....

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Unfortunately if Sandy does come up the east coast/backs into the NE, which it now appears pretty likely will happen, there will be a major surge/coastal flooding/beach erosion problem as it will be a very large storm with a large windfield capable of pushing a lot of water in front of it. Tides will also be very astronomically high when it gets up here.

ESPECIALLY WITH a storm pressure lower than 960 mbs. That could equate to an easy 10 ft. surge in places, and could be higher.
Sandy is prepping the event for there are now 57 days till the 2012 Winter Solstice

Quoting RitaEvac:
Sandy is prepping the event for there are now 57 days till the 2012 Winter Solstice



LOL, good one!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Sandy is prepping the event for there are now 57 days till the 2012 Winter Solstice



There is really no need for this post.
SE VA here... I hope I don't have a sub-950 storm just off the coast, but some snow would be nice.
Sandy still looks relatively unchanged on satellite. She could/should do some more strengthening before making landfall in Cuba. If her core remains intact after Cuba she will do more strengthening north of the Caribbean. If not then she would likely just maintain intensity until she gets some baroclinic energy.
MetService says the radar is down...anyone know an alternate source?

Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Jamaica radar anyone, link?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Hey Levi What are the chances that Sandy gets pulled west by Cuba like what happened with Isaac??


She's not likely to get jerked around as much as Isaac because she's moving perpendicular through the island, and she's on a strengthening trend.
Quoting kmanislander:


Are you near or in Kingston ?


Kingston. Norbrook. Plenty wind, not so much rain. Power gone. on generator.
The NWS in Taunton, MA always does a fantastic discussion of big events like this. I'll link it rather than post it because's it's quite long but you should definitely read it.

Link
Hey Levi What are the chances that Sandy gets pulled west by Cuba like what happened with Isaac??
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The NWS in Taunton, MA always does a fantastic discussion of big events like this. I'll link it rather than post it because's it's quite long but you should definitely read it.

Link


Perhaps most important in that all:
AGAIN THERE IS NO CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...NUMEROUS
POSSIBILITIES REMAIN ON THE TABLE...BUT THE BEST ADVICE IS TO BE
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS...BEING PREPARED FOR EVERY SCENARIO...
BEST OR WORST CASE.
TV reporter says Sandy should clear Jamaica by 5pm. But to expect rain.
Thx!:)
Quoting Levi32:


She's not likely to get jerked around as much as Isaac because she's moving perpendicular through the island, and she's on a strengthening trend.
Quoting kimoskee:


Kingston. Norbrook. Plenty wind, not so much rain. Power gone. on generator.


Wind will switch to NW soon as eye moves offshore the North coast.
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
MetService says the radar is down...anyone know an alternate source?



TROPICAL UPDATE #2
_____________________

NE POTENTIAL IMPACT

Cayman Is quake...west of Sandy

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
5.4
Date-Time
Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 17:56:00 UTC
Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 12:56:00 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
17.844°N, 81.690°W
Depth
32.7 km (20.3 miles)
Quoting FunnelVortex:
THEN



NOW





Shifting west guys



should shift west alittle more
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:



That is going to be the radar to watch over the next 12-24 hours.
781. 7544
filling in on the nothern west side shes getting huge at this hour covering alarge area
Won't be long until the eye emerges off Jamaica, intensification should resume.
Looks like Sandy moving slightly west of Tropical Forecast Points on the NHC visible.
My NWS, Detroit, MI, just released a forecast discussion and it mentions Sandy.

The last issue of this long term centers on what will become of hurricane sandy. Again, variousmodel solutions are showing very good intra model continuity in eventually retrograding the maintropical remnants westward into eastern portions of Pennsylvania by next Tuesday. Alot can happen,but the main thing to watch will be the orientation of the jet stream as a strong jetlet exits thepacnw Saturday morning and advances into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. The more amplitude thisfeature will provide the better the chances for longer wavelength phasing and the degree ofretrogression. With the remnant old frontal axis and moisture still in close proximity to thesoutheastern Michigan early next week, felt it was ok to increase pops on Tuesday as this moisturewill be the first to arrive. Will need to wait on details with sandy.

Tuesday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 43
NYC NWS...

340 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR
COASTAL STORM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...HIGH WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION.
THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EAST
COAST. THE STORM MAY VERY WELL JUST MOVE OUT TO SEA...AND HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.

AGAIN...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT...SINCE
SANDY IS STILL IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS
ARE STILL AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON SANDY...AND MONITOR
THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Won't be long until the eye emerges off Jamaica, intensification should resume.


Looks like the Northern eyewall may be doing that already. Sandy will probably remain a hurricane through the transit which will be very short.
Eye now pushed offshore on northern coast

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Cayman Is quake...west of Sandy

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
5.4
Date-Time
Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 17:56:00 UTC
Wednesday, October 24, 2012 at 12:56:00 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
17.844°N, 81.690°W
Depth
32.7 km (20.3 miles)


WKC is probably peeing himself out right now...
Good gracious..has anyone seen this?

through 120 hours


240 hours

I've got a bit of East Central FL specific info to Sandy updated in my blog.


Fresh OSCAT
It looks to me like the eye has continued to form, despite Jamaica's influence.
Quoting tropicfreak:


WKC is probably peeing himself out right now...


:-(

Not felt here based on those I have spoken with.
Quoting ncstorm:
Good gracious..has anyone seen this?

through 120 hours


240 hours


Tropical moisture + baroclinic energy = LOTS of rain.
The next recon flight just took off from Gulfport/Biloxi.
Looks like on radar coming off Jamaica the eye reforms in a hurry slightly to the west. Be interesting to watch next few frames.
Quoting tropicfreak:


WKC is probably peeing himself out right now...

LOL
Quoting WXMichael:
It looks to me like the eye has continued to form, despite Jamaica's influence.


Land interaction can sometimes help a center consolidate.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Hey there fellow Virginian! I'm watching this storm NW of you here in Richmond. As for me, I am not looking for another Isabel or Irene, I'm ready for that four letter word that begins with S and ends with W.


Yeah, I work in Richmond... oh, I gotta go... thanks!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


Those in Palm Beach Nward could get a little surprise.
Quoting WXMichael:
It looks to me like the eye has continued to form, despite Jamaica's influence.


Partially offshore the North coast now. This hurricane has a very large eye. 48 miles across earlier today.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Land interaction can sometimes help a center consolidate.

That happened when Ernesto was making landfall in Mexico and with Isaac and Louisiana. As long as there are no mountains a storm could do that. Cuba could/should disrupt the circulation somewhat, how much depends on the terrain.
The station at Kingston Airport failed to file a report at 3pm. But its 4pm numbers show a barometric pressure reading of 28.85 inches, or 977MB. The station (MKJP) also showed winds at 44mph, with showers, so the southern edge of the eyewall was already (presumably) moving over it. I'd really love to know how low it dipped in between.
Quoting WXMichael:
It looks to me like the eye has continued to form, despite Jamaica's influence.


the eye quickly crossed the island...about 1 hr overland...that's it




The conditions in Little Exuma, Central Bahamas today. Intermittent light/heavy rain with winds out of the east around 30mph.
Quoting kmanislander:


:-(

Not felt here based on those I have spoken with.


Did not feel a thing on the Brac either - think we had worse post-Ivan (Dec 14 if I recall)) - that I did feel on 3rd Floor of Comfort Suites - pool was slopped empty and tourists rattled.
Son just arrived on BA Flight from UK panicking about Tsunamis! My response - "Nowhere to run - chance is small in Cayman anyway - lets get to Mezza ASAP - at least we will be on 2nd Floor with good friends and good wine" - think he was only reassured "many drinks and a good steak dinner" later.
Anyway back to more serious matters - Sandy.
thanks to twc for stepping it up on your 400pm edition. done with florida coast guard.
Anybody wanna guess this storms name? Sandy may do this after Jamaica.
18L/TS/S/CX
OVERLAND
MARK
18.10N/77.03W
Quoting fmbill:
I know it's the NAM (non-tropical), but if this plays out this way, the folks in SE Florida will have a few hours of panick.

12Z NAM



18Z NAM looks to be doing a similar trick.

From the Forecaster Discussion for Buffalo:

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
the Sunday through Wednesday time frame is a prime case for not
looking at individual model output and instead focusing on ensemble
data. Not only that...in this case you cannot rely on ensemble
means...but you have to look at each of the members and watch for
trends and ensemble-member-preferred solutions. I have rarely seen
such a perfect case for chaos theory so willingly showing its ugly
face...with finely tuned models producing such extreme outcomes.

Although there are infinite solutions to the currently evolving
pattern...in general it should be quite clear that there will be an
impressive-to-extreme tropical-to-extratropical system developing
off the East Coast this weekend and into early next week...one that
will have papers written about it in years to come. It is
impossible to cover each of the varying solutions....but we can
roughly break it down into three possible outcomes:

1 - Sandy moves inland...becomes extratropical while its remnant
continues to move westward into somewhere within New York state. This produces a whole bunch of rare forecast issues...with heavy rain...higher
elevation snow...and a NE wind Monday into Tuesday.

2 - Sandy moves into New England...becomes extratropical before or
after landfall...but a secondary system forces new low development
inland with cold air moving in from the west and a surge of tropical
moisture wrapping around the dying extratropical system. This too
would produce an elevation snow event...with lots of rain and
possibly some wind too Monday and Tuesday.

3 - Sandy moves harmlessly out to sea and becomes a fantastic fish
storm. Another system evolves and spreads precipitation across the
region...or maybe this system does not even exist.

With such wildly varying solutions...we have no choice but to
forecast a chance of rain...and higher elevation snow Sunday night
through Monday night. One thing is for certain...temperatures
should be on the cool to cold side compared to Thursday and Friday.
Quoting bigwes6844:
Anybody wanna guess this storms name? Sandy may do this after Jamaica.

Carol '54
Quoting SSideBrac:


Did not feel a thing on the Brac either - think we had worse post-Ivan (Dec 14 if I recall)) - that I did feel on 3rd Floor of Comfort Suites - pool was slopped empty and tourists rattled.
Son just arrived on BA Flight from UK panicking about Tsunamis! My response - "Nowhere to run - chance is small in Cayman anyway - lets get to Mezza ASAP - at least we will be on 2nd Floor with good friends and good wine" - think he was only reassured "many drinks and a good steak dinner" later.
Anyway back to more serious matters - Sandy.


Lots of quakes along that fault line to our South. I remember the Dec. 2004 quake. I was upstairs in an apartment that shook so hard my eyes could not focus.

As for this season we may see one or two more storms when the fronts come down. Lots of systems this year but not much in the way of majors.
Quoting jeffs713:

Carol '54
nice! good job
Will it be Sandy/Athena or Sandy-Athena?
12z JMA








Quoting DoctorDave1:
Will it be Sandy/Athena or Sandy-Athena?


Sathena
Quoting bigwes6844:
nice! good job

I cheated. Right-click the image, view image... its right in the URL. hehehe.

Quoting DoctorDave1:
Will it be Sandy/Athena or Sandy-Athena?

Santhena.
Really fascinating updated discussion from Forecaster Sipprell at NWS Taunton:

WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE...A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL
MODEL SOLNS FORECAST HURRICANE SANDY LIFTING NORTHWARD...BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL /REMAINING WARM-CORED/ AS IT LOOPS WEST TOWARDS THE
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LVL JET /SOMEWHERE
IN PROXIMITY TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION/ PARENT WITH THE
NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT LAKES RGN.

BUT AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOLNS...THE STORM IS
TAKING ON A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF
OTHER POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS. WITH REGARDS
TO THE LITERARY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...THE POST-TROPICAL TRACK OF
SANDY IS SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS TO BENCHMARK TRACKS OF THE GREAT GALE OF
1878 AND HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954 /THOUGH HAZEL DID EXHIBIT A SLIGHT
WESTWARD LEAN IT IS TRACK/.

IN ADDITION...THROUGH PERSONAL COMMUNICATION...MODEL SOLNS HAVE BEEN
KNOWN TO PREMATURELY PHASE SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HRS /ESPECIALLY A
TROPICAL SYSTEM PHASING INTO A TROUGH/. SO LONG AS HURRICANE SANDY
MAINTAINS...THE LONGER IT MAY RESIST CROSS H5 HEIGHTS AND 1000-500
THICKNESSES...RESULTING IN A GREATER PROBABILITY OF A TRACK TO THE
RIGHT /ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS QUICKER AVOIDING THE TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION/. BUT AS SEEN IN MODEL SOLNS...SANDY SLOWS WITH A
BLOCKING PATTERN TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD IT TRANSITION POST-
TROPICAL...SANDY WOULD BE ALLOWED TO PHASE ACROSS H5 HEIGHTS WITH A
SUBSEQUENT LEFT HOOK.

ADDITIONAL COMMUNICATION HAS BROUGHT UP POINTS CONCERNING OVER-
ZEALOUS CYCLONE DEEPENING BY MODEL SOLNS...AS WELL AS HANDLING STORM
MERGERS POORLY. SHOULD A MERGER OCCUR...THE MORE DOMINANT WAVE
SHOULD USURP THE WEAKER WAVE AND PREVAIL.

SO WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY THAT MODEL SOLNS ARE EXHIBITING A TRUE
FCST AND ATTENDANT OUTCOMES...THERE IS THE OTHER MATTER CONCERNING
THE TRACK OF POST-TROPICAL SANDY AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS. IN GOING WITH
24/18Z HPC GUIDANCE WHICH LEANS TOWARDS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THERE IS
GREATER WEIGHT TOWARDS SCENARIOS OF POST-TROPICAL SANDY MAKING A
CLOSE PASS /STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS POSSIBLY LEADING TO COASTAL
FLOODING AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES/...OR A DIRECT HIT /HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS...AND WITH FOLIATED TREES...RESULTING IN DOWNED TREES
AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES...HIGH SEAS AND STORM SURGE RESULTING
IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH... AND FINALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN
INTERIOR FLOODING/.

AGAIN THERE IS NO CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...NUMEROUS
POSSIBILITIES REMAIN ON THE TABLE...BUT THE BEST ADVICE IS TO BE
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS...BEING PREPARED FOR EVERY SCENARIO...
BEST OR WORST CASE.
Quoting kmanislander:


Lots of quakes along that fault line to our South. I remember the Dec. 2004 quake. I was upstairs in an apartment that shook so hard my eyes could not focus.

As for this season we may see one or two more storms when the fronts come down. Lots of systems this year but not much in the way of majors.


Think we may have an slight advantage Tsunami wise because of the very deep water around us.

Do you mean Tropical type storms or NW'sters?

Certainly nothing has "defused" the Sea Temps around us and as much as I hate any Storm, I detest late Season Storms, especially the "wrong way round" ones!
Miami radar picking up.
Recon will probably found an 85-90 mph hurricane.

topographic map of Cuba.

18Z nam INIT 24 OCT hr 006 TILL 84


Quoting Grothar:
topographic map of Cuba.



Looks to plow right into the tallest mountain range. Fairly flat beyond however.
18Z nam INIT 24 OCT hr 012 TILL 84

Quoting kmanislander:


Partially offshore the North coast now. This hurricane has a very large eye. 48 miles across earlier today.



An eye in a triangle, Illuminati conspiracy!!!!11!

Sandy is watching. I'm going to start playing foreboding music now.
18Z nam INIT 24 OCT hr 024 TILL 84

18Z nam INIT 24 OCT hr 036 TILL 84

18Z nam INIT 24 OCT hr 048 TILL 84

Any body notice the natural "question mark" in these emsemble models?

18Z nam INIT 24 OCT hr 060 TILL 84

The 18Z NAM is interesting.
If Sandy trends towards 77w will miss much of the mountains. See post 821 seems to be wobbling just west of north on the loop. If frames are set exactly N/S/.
18Z nam INIT 24 OCT hr 066 TILL 84

..TONY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
Sandy may be strengthening right now. Eye is getting stronger convection around it along with being better defined.

Could Sandy reach the category 2 storm?
TS warnings up, Hurricane warnings for the Bahamas. TS warned areas should pay close attention as Sandy may get pretty darn close.

At such a quick forward speed, she's not gonna be over the mountains long, and it doesn't look like Jamaica has done much to slow her down. Hope our Bahaman friends are prepared...
18Z nam INIT 24 OCT hr 072 TILL 84

I see that NC is entering the cone.
If it didn't have so much land around it I think Sandy would absolutely explode in the next 18-24 hours... it has a really excellent structure:



I still expect intensification in the next day or so but it's proximity to land will prevent any major RI I think.
EPIC...

845. wpb
18z nam does a loop off se fla
18Z nam INIT 24 OCT hr 078 TILL 84

Jump in, shut up, fasten seat belts, and hang on. This is gonna be a bumpy ride....
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
TS warnings up


looks like this NHC finally decided to fully commit to a US hit
Quoting DoctorDave1:
Will it be Sandy/Athena or Sandy-Athena?
Lady GaGa
Quoting CaptHooked:
Any body notice the natural "question mark" in these emsemble models?


Saw that funny but scary also... Thoughts and love to those in her path and I know we have many from the islands as regulars here that pretty much are touched by every storm we see love to you all and about to go add a donation to Porchlight as I know they will be there ready to help all in need. Love and hugs!
Quoting CaptHooked:
Any body notice the natural "question mark" in these emsemble models?



Great Catch................... :)
Quoting SSideBrac:


Think we may have an slight advantage Tsunami wise because of the very deep water around us.

Do you mean Tropical type storms or NW'sters?

Certainly nothing has "defused" the Sea Temps around us and as much as I hate any Storm, I detest late Season Storms, especially the "wrong way round" ones!


Tropical
On second thought, I would not be surprised if they found Category 2 winds.

This storm has good potential to become historic for the Northeast. I hope people take this serious.

NC in the cone and TS Warnings are up for the East Coast if FL.

18Z nam FINAL 24 OCT hr 084 TILL 84



NEXT UP GFS 18Z RUN 40 MINS OR SO
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Lady GaGa


Santana?
She's definitely kicked the afterburners on. I'd hate to even speculate what's gonna happen between now and landfall in Cuba....
Wow.........Updated from TS to Hurricane over the Bahamas.
...SANDY EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF JAMAICA... ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

5:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 24
Location: 18.3N 76.6W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

JeffMasters has created a new entry.

 

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On second thought, I would not be surprised if they found Category 2 winds.

This storm has good potential to become historic for the Northeast. I hope people take this serious.

I 100% agree...per my comment in post 856! This is unbelievable...and probably will be the strongest hurricane of the season if this continues.... 
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NC in the cone and TS Warnings are up for the East Coast if FL.

Wow!!!! northeast get ready! u guys in the cone now. one word GULP!
Quoting ncstorm:
miami area up to 20 30% to feel TS winds
Looking at the radar miami may get some in the next hour.
NEW BLOGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sandy has a big eye
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneSandy @ 24Oct.6pm
Since the previous mapping, the 24Oct.12pm StormStatus has been re-evaluated&altered from TropicalStorm to Hurricane

KIN-Kingston :: POT-PortAntonio :: SCU-Santiago de Cuba :: NBW-Guantanamo :: PST-Preston

The bottom right dot is where TropicalStormSandy became HurricaneSandy
The next dot north is H.Sandy's most recent ATCF position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Sandy's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within ~23miles or 37kilometres) to an inhabited coastline.
H.Sandy's center made landfall upon BullBay on 24Oct@~07:36pm
H.Sandy's center was heading toward reentering the Caribbean on 24Oct@~08:54pm near BuffBay after passing ~3.6miles(5.8kilometres)West of BlueMountainPeak (unlabeled unconnected dot) elevation 2,256 metres/7,402feet
H.Sandy's center was heading toward passage over(near-west of)Playa El Frances,Cuba on 25Oct@~06:30am

Click this link to the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map with more info