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Tropical Depression 18 forms south of Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on October 22, 2012

Tropical Depression Eighteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Sandy by early Tuesday morning. TD 18 is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and TD 18's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands, as seen on visible satellite loops. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate TD 18 this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Eighteen.

Forecast for TD 18
Wind shear is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday night. This should allow for some steady development of TD 18. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure to the north is expected to pull TD 18 to the north-northeast, which should put the storm in the vicinity of Jamaica on Wednesday and Eastern Cuba on Thursday. The 11 am EDT NHC Wind Probability Forecast gives a 32% chance that TD 18 will be a hurricane by 8 am EDT Wednesday, when the center should be close to Jamaica. Wind shear will rise to a high 25 - 30 knots by Thursday, which should make it difficult for TD 18 to intensify. By Friday, TD 18 should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making TD 18 more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling TD 18 to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over TD 18 and force the storm to the west-northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model. TD 18 will be capable of bringing heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches, with isolated amounts of up to 15 inches in mountainous areas, to Jamaica and Haiti, Monday night through Thursday. Heavy rains will begin on Tuesday in Eastern Cuba, and spread northwards into the Central and Eastern Bahamas by Wednesday. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches can be expected in the Cayman Islands and Dominican Republic, Tuesday through Thursday.

Invest 90L in the middle Atlantic
A small low pressure system (Invest 90L) about 700 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is headed northward at about 10 mph. The disturbance has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and is struggling with cool, dry air from the upper-level low pressure system that it is trying to form underneath. This upper-level low has provided 90L the spin it needs to become a tropical cyclone, though. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range until Wednesday morning. This may allow 90L to develop into a tropical cyclone before it encounters high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots on Wednesday. It's unlikely that 90L will affect any land areas. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 90L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

12Z is now coming out!!
Thx Dr. Jeff
South florida needs to keep a close watch
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z is now coming out!!
pls post
Quoting Seflhurricane:
South florida needs to keep a close watch


agree looking a nogaps again hmmm i think we might see some changes when the plane goes in what time is it ago tia





TD 18 will be a TS at 5 pm today, RI is underway
I don't think I've seen this many new updates in a long time.
Two new updates just this morning.

Quoting 7544:


agree looking a nogaps again hmmm i think we might see some changes when the plane goes in what time is it ago tia
Why is the NOGAPS so adamant about a SoFla landing??? It's sticking to its guns with only slight nods
What changes come to the storm if it becomes subtropical
Quoting afj3:

Why is the NOGAPS so adamant about a SoFla landing??? It's sticking to its guns with only slight nods


It is an extreme outlier.
Thank you Dr. Masters...Your'e the best
I think 90L may get renumbered to TD 19 today and, depending on how quickly 18 consolidates, might steal the name Sandy. 90L has a Michael vibe to it and, while I don't believe it'll be a major by any means, it could still surprise us. And plus, it's so cute.



It looks pretty darn good, so I'm thinking that it could be our next TD at 5 even, storms this year always seem to come in twos.
Quoting afj3:

Why is the NOGAPS so adamant about a SoFla landing??? It's sticking to its guns with only slight nods
Whether it be human, machine, or model... south Florida is always in the bullseye.
Hi tramp96, it becomes more spread out, less concentrated around it's center. It's wind field spreads out, but generally will not become "as strong" as a tropical system. There are other differences too.
Hope this would never happen in the USA:

L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists guilty of manslaughter

Excerpt:

Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L'Aquila.

A regional court found them guilty of multiple manslaughter.

Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes.
I would hold off on to many predictions till the plane feeds the info into the computers. Looking to the NW of the storm, that is one giant circulation. I don't know enough to be an alarmist but, I would not sell this storm short if I was anyone. And if you look to the nw of the storm in the gulf where the circulation stops it seems most clouds are moving off to the NNW to NW in the gulf. I would agree that this storm may venture to the western side of Jamaica.Maybe all the trick without the treat we can handle this year.
Thanks Dr. Masters! :)
From me!
Quoting originalLT:
Hi tramp96, it becomes more spread out, less concentrated around it's center. It's wind field spreads out, but generally will not become "as strong" as a tropical system. There are other differences too.

Thanks buddy I guess this is the only place I can talk to you
now
.
24. afj3

Quoting rmbjoe1954:


It is an extreme outlier.
Thanks!
25. afj3
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Whether it be human, machine, or model... south Florida is always in the bullseye.

So true!
invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al182012.ren or TropicalDepressionEighteen. The NHC hasn't posted its ATCF AL18 file yet so the below is still derived from NHC_ATCF data for Invest99L @ 22Oct.12pm ... All times in GMT.
Since the previous mapping, 99L's StormStatus between 21Oct.12am and 22Oct.12am has been reevaluated&altered from DisturBance to (closed)LOw
14.6n77.7w was reevaluated&altered to
14.5n77.5w-14.3n77.9w which in turn was reevaluated&altered to
14.4n77.2w-14.1n77.6w-13.7n77.9w as the now most recent positions

PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: PVA-Providencia :: ADZ-SanAndres :: BOC-Bocas del Toro :: ONX-Colon

The kinked line traces 99L's path as a closed low
The northernmost dot on the longest line is where 99L was declared to have become TD18

The longest line is a straightline projection through 99L's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline; in this case, Panama
27. 7544
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


It is an extreme outlier.


agree then look at the euro it takes it to the east if so fl then a push west enough to feel it the back ne so i do think the models will be shifting more west the next couple of runs imo
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
81HR


So far the 12z looks almost identical to the 06z run. We'll have to see if that continues.
Td18 is very quickly organizing we may have a hurricane by tomorrow morning so intrests in jamaica , cuba and the bahamas now i am very concerned about the track i feel the models are not handling it very well looks to me that the cone will shift to the left closer to the NW bahamas and closer to se florida coast , for us here in se florida the question will be how close does it come to the coast


72 hr, shear map
12Z GFS hr 012 TILL 144


I think there's actually a slight shift to the West on this run at 87 hours. It's not a lot but a slight shift to the West.
12Z GFS hr 024 TILL 144


34. 7544
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Td18 is very quickly organizing we may have a hurricane by tomorrow morning so intrests in jamaica , cuba and the bahamas now i am very concerned about the track i feel the models are not handling it very well looks to me that the cone will shift to the left closer to the NW bahamas and closer to se florida coast , for us here in se florida the question will be how close does it come to the coast


agree check it out
Link
12Z GFS hr 036 TILL 144


12Z GFS hr 048 TILL 144




84 hrs, most of the energy & winds seem to be west of the ctr, 988 mb
12Z GFS hr 060 TILL 144


the 12z run has a much tighter storm than the 06z

12z


06z
12Z GFS hr 072 TILL 144


Definate shift to the west at 102 hours (12z GFS vs. 06Z GFS).
12Z GFS hr 084 TILL 144




96 hrs, 984 mb, sandy looks to be a bahama mama
the 12z looks to have shifted west
12Z GFS hr 096 TILL 144


Expect hurricane watches to go up for parts of central and eastern cuba tomorrow
12Z GFS hr 108 TILL 144




ASCAT caught half of 90: and it seems the highest winds are 30mph. But it is just one wind barb so maybe the NHC wont renumber just yet.


102 hrs, 3 mb drop to 981.
50. 7544
looks like west shift this run
At 117 hours, 12z is moving back in line with the 06z.
See what happens once it crosses Cuba,then I would pay more attention to the models.
12Z GFS hr 117 TILL 144


It became very dark here in S C IL, now it's really booming outside! Haven't heard one like this in a while. Didn't think this one was supposed to develop this far south. Rain just got heavier too. Those to east should get ready!
Quoting tramp96:

Thanks buddy I guess this is the only place I can talk to you
now
tramp96............Check your email
12Z GFS hr 123 TILL 144


12Z GFS hr 132 TILL 144


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Hope this would never happen in the USA:

L'Aquila quake: Italy scientists guilty of manslaughter

Excerpt:

Six Italian scientists and an ex-government official have been sentenced to six years in prison over the 2009 deadly earthquake in L'Aquila.

A regional court found them guilty of multiple manslaughter.

Prosecutors said the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake, while the defence maintained there was no way to predict major quakes.


Good grief, nrt,

"And in other news, all Italian meteorologists have suddenly tendered resignation letters!"
;)
Any chance this happens again?
It was interesting being in DC on the edge of Snowtober, Originally I didnt think we would see anything.

Was calmer earlier in the week:


Then the snow:




And then we came back to the boring usual GA thunderstorms:
12Z GFS hr 144 final


61. 7544
with this gfs run se fl could get some effects from this ?
62. SLU
Quoting JLPR2:


ASCAT caught half of 90: and it seems the highest winds are 30mph. But it is just one wind barb so maybe the NHC wont renumber just yet.


Considering the low bias of the ASCAT it could very well be generating 35mph winds.
63. 7544
was the plane cancel for today or is it ago tia
It does create a buzz though when they show a 956mb storm heading toward the mid-Atlantic this time of year!


UKMET doesn't like Jamaica apparently.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA)
18L CYCLONE DEPRESSION
Quoting 7544:
was the plane cancel for today or is it ago tia
its a go
Spiral banding becoming very pronounced on TD-18. This might very well be a stronger system than we might think. It's small, over very deep TCHP with a favorable environment, with a lot of moisture for it to feed off.
NOUS42 KNHC 221519
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 22 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-156

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A.,24/0000Z,0600Z
B.,AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C.,23/1945Z D.,15.7N 77.6W
E., 23/2330Z TO 24/0600Z
F.,SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 24/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0418A CYCLONE
C. 24/0745Z
D. 17.4N 77.0W
E. 24/1130Z TO 24/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

Boomers have moved on East, rain has let up some, but sure filled the ditches in a hurry. Looking at WU's lightning feature out of Lincoln, appears Peoria area had the most strikes about an hour ago.
GFS sticking to no worries:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Spiral banding becoming very pronounced on TD-18. This might very well be a stronger system than we might think. It's small, over very deep TCHP with a favorable environment, with a lot of moisture for it to feed off.


well the HH is just about to enter the SE GOM/yucatan channel so we should soon find out
73. 7544
hmmm

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ANNOUNCED THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CURRENT
FORECASTS TRACK STILL TRACK THE DEPRESSION NORTHEAST OVER THE
BAHAMAS. AT THIS TIME, THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY IS UNCERTAIN
BUT THIS COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL LOCAL WEATHER IMPACTS LATE THIS
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. SOME POSSIBLE IMPACTS, NOTING THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY, MAY BE STRONG WINDS, HIGH SEAS, MAJOR BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
62. stormpetrol 4:23 PM GMT on October 22, 2012 +0
Time: 16:12:30Z
Coordinates: 23.65N 87.05W
Acft. Static Air Press: 409.8 mb (~ 12.10 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,396 meters (~ 24,265 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 385 meters (~ 1,263 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 344° at 9 knots (From the NNW at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: -17.0°C (~ 1.4°F)
Dew Pt: -48.4°C (~ -55.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Recon well on the way
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6338
270

NOUS42 KNHC 211528

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1115 AM EDT SUN 21 OCTOBER 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-155



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72

A. 22/1800Z A. 23/1200Z

B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE

C. 22/1330Z C. 23/0730Z

D. 13.8N 78.5W D. 14.2N 78.6W

E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2030Z E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1400Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES

IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS: THE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 21/2100Z WAS

CANCELED BY NHC AT 21/1230Z. THE 22/1200Z INVEST IN TCPOD

12-154 HAS BEEN RE-TASKED FOR 22/1800Z AS SPECIFIED ABOVE.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.



$$

SEF
892

NOUS42 KNHC 221519

REPRPD

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1115 AM EDT MON 22 OCTOBER 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-156



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72

A. 24/0000Z,0600Z A. 24/1200Z,1800Z

B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0418A CYCLONE

C. 23/1945Z C. 24/0745Z

D. 15.7N 77.6W D. 17.4N 77.0W

E. 23/2330Z TO 24/0600Z E. 24/1130Z TO 24/1800Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES

WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.



$$

JWP




I wonder if there is any feedback in here between 99L and 90L where the GFS tries to merge their low pressure/precip areas together.


Either way 99L is elongated way east into a weakness south of what I believe is a result of 90L, and eventually moves in that direction.
It would be interesting to see if the system wont phase, if it could get stretched enough to split.
T.C.F.A
18L/TD/NN/XX
MARK
13.89N/77.59W
Although there are many vortexs.. the LLC is pretty close to 13.4N and 78.8W moving just south of due west around 5mph
Thanks Dr. Masters!
TD18 really wrapped up and is looking good. I could see it becoming a hurricane sometime in its life. I will make my forecast when I get home from school.
81. 7544
Quoting wxchaser97:
Thanks Dr. Masters!
TD18 really wrapped up and is looking good. I could see it becoming a hurricane sometime in its life. I will make my forecast when I get home from school.


maybe a ts strom when the plane gets done imo looks like one now
Poor Jamaica.
anyone think this could go thru a RI phase? what are the possibilities?
This is looks like a Michelle 2001 or Paloma 2008 track to me, just my take.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
anyone think this could go thru a RI phase? what are the possibilities?


It's certainly swimming in gasoline .
Quoting stormpetrol:
This is looks like a Michelle 2001 or Paloma 2008 track to me, just my take.


Oh that crazy Paloma, she was a surprise that year, becoming the second strongest Atlantic hurricane ever in November and all that. Her sudden strengthening and equally sudden weakening makes me think of another P storm... Paul of this year in the Eastern Pacific.

I'm trying to get attention on 90L as well, as I'm pretty certain we could see a TS out of it, it's been impressing me today.
89. 7544
cmc comin in soon lets see if it shifts gain
90L could, and probably will, be upgraded to TD19 later today. The question will be in that case, which one becomes Sandy, and which one becomes Tony.


TD18 is ramping up, the satellite presentation has improved remarkably since 8 hours ago.
I've really got an uneasy RI feeling on this one.... JMHO.
Quoting stormpetrol:
This is looks like a Michelle 2001 or Paloma 2008 track to me, just my take.


Hush with that "P" name please :-)
umm...12Z

CMC
TRMM pass shows how organized TD 18 is.

How likely would RI be? Even if it doesn't happen, I think the NHC is underestimating the future intensity of TD18.
12Z CMC = 0Z Euro solution...NE hit

Link
NON TROPICAL MODEL NAM AT 60 HRS

For some reason when the models show a tighter storm they move the system further west and when it is elongated out to sea, why is that?
Quoting ncstorm:
12z Nogaps


ummmmm.... much further west.
Looking to be a low strike threat ATM for the US. It will serve to destroy the FL beaches however, again.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
For some reason when the models show a tighter storm they move the system further west and when it is elongated out to sea, why is that?


Taller storm will feel the trough more than a weaker storm thus getting more of a tug NW.
Quoting TXCWC:
12Z CMC = 0Z Euro solution...NE hit

Link
I've noticed the CMC has been the most consistent model for this storm. GFS and Euro have flip-flopped from run to run.
Quoting ncstorm:
umm...12Z

CMC


Large shift west...

Quoting ncstorm:
12z Nogaps


Large shift west...

Ugh... I just aided My family in putting up $125 dollars worth of Halloween Lights.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
For some reason when the models show a tighter storm they move the system further west and it is elongated out to sea, why is that?


I believe it's sheer from the front. I could be wrong though
Quoting 954FtLCane:
anyone think this could go thru a RI phase? what are the possibilities?

If you mean before it gets past Cuba, I think the odds are very low. It may get to a cat 1 by the time it's ove the eastern Bahamas, but I think that's also unlikely. I still think it goes out to sea and become a threat to Bermuda. Once it's past 30N, then it has a chance to become a larger hurricane. If it indeed follows the high pressure ridge off the east coast and stays over the Gulf Stream, then it has the best chance of developing into a cat2/cat3 storm. No matter what, there aren't many ingredients in place that would promote RI in any case.
It looks like a spinup/splitoff in 90Ls wake will give rise to the big North Atlantic low that gives 99L its biggest weakness to pass through, so the evolution of 90L is crucial to this storm too.
If it pulls a Michael and gets away too fast, things might end up very different.
111. 7544
hmm pretty darn close to so fl this run again

Link

new speghtti might shift west again imo
CMC cuts off the space between 99L and the north atlantic low, and also elongates 99L much later than does the GFS:

The storm is traveling west right now and getting better every frame. I'd be surprised if they don't find a TS when the plane gets there. If it doesn't stall or change direction soon Nicaragua mayn't be out of play. Look at the RGB in motion at the NHC.
Time: 17:11:30Z
Coordinates: 19.25N 84.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 409.8 mb (~ 12.10 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,389 meters (~ 24,242 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 374 meters (~ 1,227 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 324° at 17 knots (From the NW at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: -16.0°C (~ 3.2°F)
Dew Pt: -49.9°C (~ -57.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Recon due west of Grand Cayman now.
Clear central rotation and CDO forming, might be a TS already.
Where is a TCTrak for TD18?
Quoting Grothar:
Thank you Gro..... The south Florida folks were freekin' out with the more westerly tracks.Much too early. Have you tried the vodka flavored vodka Gro?
I don't see any shift west yet.


If a high builds in north of the storm it makes a better environment shear wise, and also moves the storm the storm further west. If the trough picks up the storm it shears the system as if pushes it off to the NE. This is what the Doc means when he says the steering environment is up in the air. The models are having the same problem. Stay tuned is all we can do.
Good afternoon. Can somebody give me the link for the hurricane hunter at google earth, please. Thank you
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Thank you Gro..... The south Florida folks were freekin' out with the more westerly tracks.Much too early. Have you tried the vodka flavored vodka Gro?


Old Gro does not imbibe. I never drank.
Ok so the high is centered pretty much right over Atlanta, GA and is expected to shift east which would also turn the storm to the Northeast, think clockwise flow around the high. Now look up over the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Iowa and noticed the change in the white lines from North to Northwest feeding that ULL over Saskatchewan. If everything is progressing west to east that could be part of the reason why the storm turns back to the Northwest and merges with that ULL. Now feel free to chime in and point out any errors I have in my analysis.

TD 18 appears to be moving due west now.
However, unlike Irene which was a similar distance away from FL, the pressure gradient should be much greater with this storm which could give the east coast a good lashing with wind and rain.
127. flsky
Remember when one of the models predicted a storm like TD 18 about 2 weeks ago! Rather incredible forecasting.
Just remember, this is late October, not August. This system will most likely not be your classical looking tropical entity. It is probably going to be sheared on the west side, mainly due to strong SW winds ahead of the digging trough. Secondly, there is going to be a tremendous moisture gradient on the west side of the storm. You can already notice this as future Sandy is having some difficulty wrapping anything on the west side. This will be an ongoing struggle through its life.
Quoting Grothar:


Old Gro does not imbibe. I never drank.
In the words of the famous Dr. McCoy...........Dammit Jim
130. 7544
Quoting stormpetrol:
TD 18 appears to be moving due west now.


yeap lets see if it reaches 80 west then all bets are off imo
I just have a hunch that this isn't going to get anywhere near the east coast. I think it will pass over Bermuda though as it transitions into an extratropical system.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
CMC cuts off the space between 99L and the north atlantic low, and also elongates 99L much later than does the GFS:


The model runs are still crazed right now, since they seem to be intializing on different supposed COC's. There appear to multiple vortexes spinning around in the area of TD18. I hope the HH plane is able to fix a better COC. The models than should start running based on the same data. As it is, the ensemble model of taking it over the eastern Bahamas and then out to sea still look the most plausible. We shall see, but I doubt we'e going to get a good handle on this one until it finally starts moving and gets away from South America.
Will be interested to see what TS Wind Fields the HH sortie discovers - TD 18 is "visibly" a relatively large system.
Time: 17:21:00Z
Coordinates: 18.6833N 83.45W
Acft. Static Air Press: 410.1 mb (~ 12.11 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,384 meters (~ 24,226 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 374 meters (~ 1,227 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 258° at 23 knots (From the WSW at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: -16.3°C (~ 2.7°F)
Dew Pt: -31.6°C (~ -24.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting Chucktown:
Just remember, this is late October, not August. This system will most likely not be your classical looking tropical entity. It is probably going to be sheared on the west side, mainly due to strong SW winds ahead of the digging trough. Secondly, there is going to be a tremendous moisture gradient on the west side of the storm. You can already notice this as future Sandy is having some difficulty wrapping anything on the west side. This will be an ongoing struggle through its life.


Actually, the models are showing it being more eastern lopsided.
Quoting Chucktown:
Just remember, this is late October, not August. This system will most likely not be your classical looking tropical entity. It is probably going to be sheared on the west side, mainly due to strong SW winds ahead of the digging trough. Secondly, there is going to be a tremendous moisture gradient on the west side of the storm. You can already notice this as future Sandy is having some difficulty wrapping anything on the west side. This will be an ongoing struggle through its life.


models are trying to put all mositure on the west side for some reason.
Quoting cwf1069:
Good afternoon. Can somebody give me the link for the hurricane hunter at google earth, please. Thank you


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Atlantic .kmz
Welcome.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


models are trying to put all mositure on the west side for some reason.




I tend to agree
Quoting Chucktown:
Just remember, this is late October, not August. This system will most likely not be your classical looking tropical entity. It is probably going to be sheared on the west side, mainly due to strong SW winds ahead of the digging trough. Secondly, there is going to be a tremendous moisture gradient on the west side of the storm. You can already notice this as future Sandy is having some difficulty wrapping anything on the west side. This will be an ongoing struggle through its life.


Late October,but still not November - conditions are still quite favorable,especially if TD18 crosses 80W(more time to organise)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Clear central rotation and CDO forming, might be a TS already.
Crazy what a difference in just 12 hours....YIKES.
Quoting Grothar:


Old Gro does not imbibe. I never drank.


I'm certain I read in Beowulf that you drank mead...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREA OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN AREAS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA


Quoting 954FtLCane:




I tend to agree


Looking at that image it looks like the mixed band/comma head that a subtropical cyclone tends to pick up.

When I was doing research at the nws this summer I found in some of the records a discussion about how to forecast a storm going through extratropical transition.

The Canadian Hurricane Center and the NWS's out of the northeast had agreed during the time before we had better modeling and radar that the western side would have higher rainfall amounts and the eastern side of the cyclone would have higher winds during the transition process.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


models are trying to put all mositure on the west side for some reason.

Which doesn't make any sense, since the shear will be coming out of the W or SW, and continental air will be filtering in from the W and NW as is passes by land. Not to mention inflow will be from that direction.

It doesn't make sense.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Large shift west...



Large shift west...

Ugh... I just aided My family in putting up $125 dollars worth of Halloween Lights.

CMC initialized very badly. WAY too far SW.
Quoting presslord:


I'm certain I read in Beowulf that you drank mead...
Damn dragons
148. 7544
looks like 99l beats 90l and will be sandy sometime today looking good at this hour stationary
Thank you
90L up to 70%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
TD 18 is looking more and more like a TS. Would not be surprised if HH finds winds supporting an immediate upgrade. Pressure may be near 1001 mbs if the actual obs correlate to the appearance of the system.
Appears to be consolidating nicely this afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to Sandy at 5PM.

the CMC is also back to bombing back over the NC/VA and DC



939 MB.."Elizabeth, Im coming to join you with a CMC doom model"
Quoting sar2401:

If you mean before it gets past Cuba, I think the odds are very low. It may get to a cat 1 by the time it's ove the eastern Bahamas, but I think that's also unlikely. I still think it goes out to sea and become a threat to Bermuda. Once it's past 30N, then it has a chance to become a larger hurricane. If it indeed follows the high pressure ridge off the east coast and stays over the Gulf Stream, then it has the best chance of developing into a cat2/cat3 storm. No matter what, there aren't many ingredients in place that would promote RI in any case.


Yup I meant before it reaches Cuba, in the next 48-72 hours. The satellite presentation was the reason I asked.
Someone mentioned earlier, and I tended to agree, why not raise hurricane watches for Jamaica and Eastern Cuba since their is a 32% chance that in 48 hours this may be a hurricane.
The NHC forecast has this as a 70 mph TS going into Jamaica...



INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA
96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
I see my friend Chucktown has gone on record as saying this thing is definitely gonna obliterate Charleston...
from Henry Margusity Fan Page on Facebook

GFS model is wrong with it's solution. A storm will end on the coast, but which storm is the question.
Quoting kmanislander:
TD 18 is looking more and more like a TS. Would not be surprised if HH finds winds supporting an immediate upgrade. Pressure may be near 1001 mbs if the actual obs correlate to the appearance of the system.


Kman
Hows things with you? Any thoughts on TD 18 getting as far west as 80 Degrees, or are we out of the woods ?
Quoting presslord:


I'm certain I read in Beowulf that you drank mead...


Never had the need for mead.


GFS



Quoting ncstorm:
the CMC is also back to bombing back over the NC/VA and DC



939 MB.."Elizabeth, Im coming to join you with a CMC doom model"
I see the CMC is going all "Storm of the Century" on you guys.
Quoting ncstorm:
from Henry Margusity Fan Page on Facebook

GFS model is wrong with it's solution. A storm will end on the coast, but which storm is the question.
Boy that is a bold prediction considering how well the GFS has done all year.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Boy that is a bold prediction considering how well the GFS has done all year.


I know right..LOL..trust me, his "fans" turn on him all the time
Quoting superpete:


Kman
Hows things with you? Any thoughts on TD 18 getting as far west as 80 Degrees, or are we out of the woods ?


We are on the edge of the woods :-).

It may drift West close to 80 but unless the trough is weaker and shallower than forecast I do not see this coming our way at this time.
Question:
If Invest 90L were to become TD#19 and then a tropical storm before TD#18 reaches tropical storm status, would it be named Sandy or Tony?
If the answer to that question is Sandy, and I think it is, does anyone know when the last time storm names were out of sequence with the TD numbers (taking into consideration, of course, that there are no 'Q' storms).
Quoting ncstorm:
the CMC is also back to bombing back over the NC/VA and DC



939 MB.."Elizabeth, Im coming to join you with a CMC doom model"


939mb...this is doom if it verified eventually
Quoting CybrTeddy:
90L could, and probably will, be upgraded to TD19 later today. The question will be in that case, which one becomes Sandy, and which one becomes Tony.


TD18 is ramping up, the satellite presentation has improved remarkably since 8 hours ago.


is it possible 90L could make it to TS right away at 5PM ???
Quoting kmanislander:


We are on the edge of the woods :-).

It may drift West close to 80 but unless the trough is weaker and shallower than forecast I do not see this coming our way at this time.


Ok to be on the edge so long as the twigs & bark dont start 'flying' LOL
Just drove thru S.Sound ,gusty out of the E-NE now at a decent clip
It doesn't get much better than this overhead a tropical system. Well established anticyclone.

Quoting superpete:


Ok to be on the edge so long as the twigs & bark dont start 'flying' LOL
Just drove thru S.Sound ,gusty out of the E-NE now at a decent clip


I am at home now. Feels like the typical Xmas breeze. Lovely day out.
Quoting jeffs713:

CMC initialized very badly. WAY too far SW.


Most the models initialized badly that run. Check out the 99L model error (0hr) in nm here.
from Levi:

TD 18 will likely be east coast bound if it takes on a wrapped, unbroken comma shape north of the Bahamas and bombs out its NW quadrant, thereby trapping its moisture bubble and dumping the outflow heat north and east of itself, which would help the storm stay west. Otherwise, if the GFS is right and energy splits away from the storm to the east, it will likely follow the stream flow south of the upper low to its east and head out to sea. Still too soon to sell out on either one until we see what the storm looks like in 2-3 days.
The aircraft will start descending shortly. Near 15 N now.
Quoting superpete:


Ok to be on the edge so long as the twigs & bark dont start 'flying' LOL
Just drove thru S.Sound ,gusty out of the E-NE now at a decent clip
East End is pretty gusty too and seas are getting pretty choppy.
TD# 18 could well be a hurricane by late tonight, its just in that sweet spot for this time of year.
Quoting stormpetrol:
TD# 18 could well be a hurricane by late tonight, its just in that sweet spot for this time of year.


I hope not but we have seen it happen before.
Quoting caribnewsman:
Question:
If Invest 90L were to become TD#19 and then a tropical storm before TD#18 reaches tropical storm status, would it be named Sandy or Tony?
If the answer to that question is Sandy, and I think it is, does anyone know when the last time storm names were out of sequence with the TD numbers (taking into consideration, of course, that there are no 'Q' storms).


It's happened before with storms that were declared TD beforehand, and then upgraded to a TS after another TS formed after it did. It's happened recently I think, in 2007 once or twice. Humberto got named before Ingrid even though she formed as a TD sooner on the same day.
The 12Z EURO (still running) is wayy off of the model guidance.
12z Euro more west.

120 hours.

Update from Kingston Jamaica. Light showers periodically from before daybreak this morning. By all indications, this system is ready to dish us our share of HUrricane Season 2012. It will be interesting to see what this system will be by the time i leave out for the gym and get back.
HH descending now.
Quoting LostTomorrows:


It's happened before with storms that were declared TD beforehand, and then upgraded to a TS after another TS formed after it did. It's happened recently I think, in 2007 once or twice. Humberto got named before Ingrid even though she formed as a TD sooner on the same day.


It happened this year. TD 7 developed and then dissipated, after that TD 8 became Gordon. However, a week or so later TD 7 redeveloped into Helene in the GoM.
Quoting yqt1001:


It happened this year. TD 7 developed and then dissipated, after that TD 8 became Gordon. However, a week or so later TD 7 redeveloped into Helene in the GoM.


I didn't count that in my mind because, as you said, TD 7 did technically dissipate.
This is an interesting map. It shows the 925 mb vort displaced well to the West of where the surface center is currently positioned, suggesting that the system may be tilted in height from West to East.

Recon will sort this out.

184. 7544
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Euro more west.

120 hours.



hmm more are shifting west today interesting
So I decorated for halloween! Last time I did that was the year of Wilma! Uggghhhh! I am never decorating again during hurricane season!
TD 18 without a doubt is getting its act together. RI in the cards?



On another note if the models pan out I may have to put up with a storm of dynamic and perhaps historic proportions. Snow to my west and wind and rain here in central VA. Crazy and unusual setup.
Quoting reedzone:
The 12Z EURO (still running) is wayy off of the model guidance.


Could it be the start of a new trend. Will the other models play monkey see monkey do?
Pressure of 1001.8 and 38 MPH already found and nowhere near the center
New Jersey coast here anxious about the potential for a Nor'Sandy. Prep supplies are a go. Camera a go. Storms like this are very rare, but not without precedent.
Quoting kmanislander:
Pressure of 1001.8 and 38 MPH already found and nowhere near the center


Suspect, was recorded while descending.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Suspect, was recorded while descending.


Not flagged though but subsequent readings rising
Is it to early to ask if( Sandy maybe) could pump the ridge?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Suspect, was recorded while descending.


Agree a suspect reading
Good afternoon. I see we have TD 18. It looks pretty good right now I think, recon may find Sandy:



NHC forecast seems very reasonable to me, maybe a tad conservative on intensity after it crosses Cuba.
Lots of readings now near 1003 mbs flying near 750 feet !. Must be really calm out there LOL
12z Euro at 168 hours,wow!!

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Euro at 168 hours,wow!!
Um... yeah....

Link
Join us
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Um... yeah....



If that happens Manhattan would have very serious problems
Quoting stormpetrol:
TD# 18 could well be a hurricane by late tonight, its just in that sweet spot for this time of year.


That would be sort of insane. I'd project it to become a hurricane in 36 hours or so. needs to build an inner core.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Um... yeah....



926mb?!!!!?!

CMC showed a 939mb low. this is crazy.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Um... yeah....



I wonder if that will be a Nor'easter or a hurricane still? It's not as though it's THAT late in the season, and water temperatures are still quite warm in that area compared to what is average for October, especially along the coast up to and around the Maritimes.

It's interesting to think that if it consolidates enough, it could maintain hurricane/tropical status for longer. But that is quite the doom scenario, no matter how you look at it.
Post 198 that looks like a Halloween mask.
Quoting LostTomorrows:


I wonder if that will be a Nor'easter or a hurricane still? It's not as though it's THAT late in the season, and water temperatures are still quite warm in that area compared to what is average for October, especially along the coast up to and around the Maritimes.

It's interesting to think that if it consolidates enough, it could maintain hurricane/tropical status for longer. But that is quite the doom scenario, no matter how you look at it.

That would definitely be extratropical by the time it got here, but it really wouldn't make a difference. A 926mb low is going to cause mass destruction no matter what it's technically called.


Euro at 120...hmmmmmm...interesting
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Um... yeah....

Happy Halloween to 50 million people!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Um... yeah....



That's an insanely powerful extra-tropical (or tropical?) system.
Lol, center is almost on top of me in the last frame, though it is 40mb weaker.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Um... yeah....



Last year's halloween for the NE was screwed up...this year's ??????
I better get my hurricane plan out.

926 ??? cat 5? lol.
Another powerful blast from sunspot 1598 just occurred, M5 class this time:



Things could get real interesting if that spot holds itself together for another few days when it will be directly facing Earth.
Bonjou from Port-au-Prince...are we going to feel this one?? In the past, some of the most deadly ones didn't hit us directly, just a sideswipe...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
3:00 AM JST October 23 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.2N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.5N 128.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Finally, invest_al182012.invest
AL18, 2012 10 22 12, 13.6n78.1w, 25knots, 1003millibars, TropicalDepression
AL18, 2012 10 22 18, 13.5n78.7w, 25knots, 1003millibars, TropicalDepression
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL
11:00 PM PhST, October 22 2012
==============================

The Low Pressure Area east of Surigao Del Sur has developed into a tropical depression and was named "OFEL".

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ofel [1000 hPa] located at 9.0°N 130.8°E or 460 km east of Hinatuan City, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Visayas Region
=============
1. Leyte
2. Southern Leyte
3. Eastern Samar
4. Western Samar

Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Surigao Del Norte
2. Dinagat Island
3. Surigao Del Sur
4. Agusan Provinces
5. Camiguin Island

Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to Tropical Depression "OFEL" and the northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Um... yeah....




926 mb? Really? What's wrong with the models? How do they come to a conclusion like that?
(In)Accuweather has been predicting lows in the 50s for South Florida for Oct.29-Nov 2 for a few days now. That would be great this early in the fall.
Recon flying in the clear, approaching TD18.
220. 7544
with all these major models shifting west could we see a new cone by nhc shift further west tia
Quoting 7544:
with all these major models shifting west could we see a new cone by nhc shift further west tia


If they were to shift the cone, it would be a gradual shift. They don't put all their eggs in one basket. Just my opinion.
12z JMA model..out to 144 hours
I hope that doom storm doesn't end up being insanely strong if it hits the US east coast.I live in canada anyway.
Quoting Thrawst:


That would be sort of insane. I'd project it to become a hurricane in 36 hours or so. needs to build an inner core.


It's happened every year since 2007.
well basically we are rolling dice and atlantic city looks to be oblilerated according to the CMC and Euro..LOL

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED ONE-PART 00Z/22 ECMWF AND TWO-PARTS 00Z/22 ECENS MEAN TO
UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.
THERE ARE TWO MAJOR FEATURES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE INFLUENCING THE
FLOW- THE TROPICAL LOW EMERGING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS, AND THE AMPLIFYING POLAR JET OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. JUST HOW THESE FORCES INTERACT IS CRUCIAL,
BUT AT THE TIME RANGE AT HAND, PREDICTING THEIR DANCE IS DICEY AT
BEST. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE INCREASINGLY HYBRID CYCLONE OFF THE
EAST COAST, THOUGH NOT AS FAR OUT TO SEA AS THE GFS AND GEFS
MEMBERS. WILL COORDINATE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERIOR IS
CONSIDERABLE, WITH MUCH OF THE NATION COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY. WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MARITIME POLAR AIR,
WITH A MIXTURE OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR TO THE EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


FINAL...

CHOOSE TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION THAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 18 IN PLAY OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND
CONSIDERING THE WILDLY DIVERSE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE 12Z/22 CYCLE, THAT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A
SAFE BET. MADE NO CHANGES UPSTREAM OVER MOST OF THE UNITED STATES
FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE, SAVE SOME COSMETIC TWEAKS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW, WITH THE POTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS HIGH.
who says TD18 or Sandy/Tony this is The EAST COAST KATRINA
Time: 19:12:30Z
Coordinates: 12.9667N 78.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 983.9 mb (~ 29.05 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 160 meters (~ 525 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.0 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 64° at 4 knots (From the ENE at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 25.0°C (~ 77.0°F)
Dew Pt: 23.1°C (~ 73.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting Seflhurricane:
South florida needs to keep a close watch


More wishcasting. Someone needs to control these people. No models have suggested in the least that it will strike So Fla.
90L is probably a tropical cyclone also.
the HPC has come back west since this morning..duh duh duh..


I truly TRULY hope that this DOES NOT happen, but I forecast that TD 18 has the potential to be a Category 1 Hurricane by tomorrow evening. After that, if land interaction is minimal, I see nothing to stop Future Sandy from reaching Major Hurricane Status prior to reaching Cuba. We have seen this with many Caribbean storms under similar conditions
Recon found center more SW than where it was at 2 PM.

Quoting pmzqqzmp:


More wishcasting. Someone needs to control these people. No models have suggested in the least that it will strike So Fla.
But 3 models put it within 150 miles. Close enough for concern.
22/1745 UTC 22.0N 51.7W T2.0/2.0 90L

Well...this should be enough for classification.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Recon found center more SW than where it was at 2 PM.

I think it's clear on visible that it is SW of initial position. This confirms it.
Good Afternoon everyone, it seems that TD 18 continues to organize rather quickly since this morning. We may have Sandy by 5pm. In the short term it continues to crawl to the west it may still have a chance to get to 80W before a trough digs in and send it to the north or NNE. From there its still highly uncertain how close this gets to the US east coast. I'm not buying into the cone which forecast it to head out to sea. There is a narrow ridge to its north that can steer this back to the west and get close to Florida and eventually the east coast. However its too early and its all about timing.
Hey  pmzqqzmp - No one was wishcasting...it's called watching the tropics...so I don't know where you are getting that 
240. 7544
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


More wishcasting. Someone needs to control these people. No models have suggested in the least that it will strike So Fla.


d have you seen the models yet its going to be pretty close that so fla will still get some bad weather esp if it bloosoms on the west side p
IMHO I don't think saying S.Fla should watch this closely is a wishcast just a statement that maybe needed to be said.
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


More wishcasting. Someone needs to control these people. No models have suggested in the least that it will strike So Fla.


How is that wishing casting he simply said Florida needs to keep watch because this is right in our backyard!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Recon found center more SW than where it was at 2 PM.



No surprise. I mentioned earlier that the 925 mb vort was West of the position in the advisory.

See map below which I previously posted but now updated.

There is an air of alarm being expressed but it seems too soon to say when the factors involved are so complex. This is the kind of situation where WU is at its most interesting.

Laughed at loud at Grothar's "No need for mead."
Im pretty sure many people have gone there today...

Karl Parker says there could be "double-digit" rainfall in Haiti (also they have not fully recovered from the 7.0 quake of 2010.

247. 7544
it be interesting to see the model runs once they get the hh data
Quoting kmanislander:


No surprise. I mentioned earlier that the 925 mb vort was West of the position in the advisory.

See map below which I previously posted but now updated.



So the center is further SW which means it more aligned with its mid-level circulation. If thats the cast this makes that eventually NNE turn quite a bit harder for the trough. The cone may coming more in line with the Euro/CMC rather than the GFS run from this morning
Last time I checked the EURO is one of the more reliable models. Between 96 & 120 it seems that Sandy moves NNW on it's approach closest to FL. As you can see the wind field is pretty large.

96 hr

120 hr

There seems to be some sort of westward trend. I suspect this will stay east of S Fla but how far is the question.
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
(In)Accuweather has been predicting lows in the 50s for South Florida for Oct.29-Nov 2 for a few days now. That would be great this early in the fall.
If that were the case we would have 40s here in the Tampa Bay area.
I seeing a shift of forecast cone to the W soon
From my Local NWS out of Newport/ Morehead City NC

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST GOES FROM ONE
EXTREME TO THE OTHER. THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE HIGH
BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEEK`S END. CLEAR
SKIES AND MILD TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE TROPICAL
SYSTEM SANDY. WILL NOT REHASH DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FROM VARIOUS
MODELS. WILL KEEP WITH HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM VERY
CLOSE TO CAPE HATTERAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
22/00Z ECMWF MODEL.
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND
INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.htm l

Check out the last frame on the Caribbean rainbow loop. You can see a man's face clearly just to the SW of the Center. Just an observation, pretty eerie.
This Storm does look to be intensifying at a good clip this afternoon
BEGIN
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 19, 2012, DB, O, 2012102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL192012
255. 7544
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I seeing a shift of forecast cone to the W soon


agree maybe they will wait till 11pm update tho its only 4 days away give or take
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Recon found center more SW than where it was at 2 PM.



That can't be, there was no defiant west wind shift. It appears to be more north.
anyway I'm out again guys
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Last time I checked the EURO is one of the more reliable models. Between 96 & 120 it seems that Sandy moves NNW on it's approach closet to FL. As you can see the wind field is pretty large.

96 hr

120 hr

There seems to be some sort of westward trend. I suspect this will stay east of S Fla but how far is the question.
Surf is going to increase up and down the East Coast.

invest_RENUMBER_al902012_al192012.ren


Tropical Depression 19. Which one will be Sandy, which one will be Tony.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Last time I checked the EURO is one of the more reliable models. Between 96 & 120 it seems that Sandy moves NNW on it's approach closet to FL. As you can see the wind field is pretty large.

96 hr

120 hr

There seems to be some sort of westward trend. I suspect this will stay east of S Fla but how far is the question.


If the center is further SW than the one from 2pm. Means it could get close to 80W or pass it by tomorrow morning. This would put S. Florida in the bulls eye with the models.
Quoting HurricaneKing:
From my Local NWS out of Newport/ Morehead City NC

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST GOES FROM ONE
EXTREME TO THE OTHER. THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE HIGH
BUILDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEEK`S END. CLEAR
SKIES AND MILD TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE TROPICAL
SYSTEM SANDY. WILL NOT REHASH DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FROM VARIOUS
MODELS. WILL KEEP WITH HPC SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM VERY
CLOSE TO CAPE HATTERAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
22/00Z ECMWF MODEL.
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND
INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.



with the HPC shifting its track closer to NC, Im not surprise that the NWS in Newport is siding with them
Quoting Hurricanes305:


How is that wishing casting he simply said Florida needs to keep watch because this is right in our backyard!


Well stated. The rule of thumb for those of us in South FL is that we should keep an eye on any storm to our south or southeast. This does not mean that we are wishcasting, we are being prudent. No track is set in stone this early. Crazy things can happen, like Wilma intensifying before hitting us when it was supposed to be sheared and weakened.
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INVEST, AL, L, , ,
Tropical Depression 19 and Tropical Storm Sandy to come at 5PM.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tropical Depression 19 and Tropical Storm Sandy to come at 5PM.


the blog will be going fast..the 6pm local news on the east coast will have a lot to talk about..
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tropical Depression 19 and Tropical Storm Sandy to come at 5PM.


So they found TS force winds?
Tropical Depression 19.
If this thing is further southwest, then does what mean the track will be shifted further west? I am here in West Palm Beach, Florida wondering if I need to keep an eye on this storm.
Recon has yet to take a sample of the core, they've been dancing around outside it. They're heading into it now. This system appears to have a very tight and small windfield. What's more so, the environmental pressures are rather low. 18L is nicely organizing. Classic monsoonal October system.
Quoting presslord:
I see my friend Chucktown has gone on record as saying this thing is definitely gonna obliterate Charleston...


I heard that Press. LOL !! We shouldn't have any problems here, other than some marine issues. The trough will dig pretty hard over the SE US as it goes negative and becomes NW - SE oriented. Now, folks from the OBX to New England are going to have to watch very closely, as this could be a strong nor'easter by this time next week.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Surf is going to increase up and down the East Coast.

Yup not good for the beaches. Some erosion is sure to come out of this. I wonder how close Fort Laudy beach will come to A1A this time.
Quoting 7544:
it be interesting to see the model runs once they get the hh data


Low level HH data does not help the models all that much. The high level Gulfstream IV flights do.


How are tropical cyclones represented in operational model initial conditions?
And why does it matter?
Quoting ncstorm:


with the HPC shifting its track closer to NC, Im not surprise that the NWS in Newport is siding with them


Neither am I, though I have seen them disagree with the HPC if they thought other models like in this case the GFS looked more realisitic. So it's giving the EURO more credit that the HPC and some of the NWS's are leaning towards its solution.

My thoughts on this storm are that we need to watch the trough. It all depends on the tilt the trough takes as to which direction the storm will go. A positive tilt the storm doesnt get captured and goes harmlessly out to sea.(Well harmless for the east coast. The poor Caribbean islands are going to take a beating either way.) Negative tilt tends to include capture and a Euro like solution. I will say that even if it gets captured I think the EURO and CMC are overkill pressure wise. We have to remember what they were showing with Irene when she was in a similar location.
18Z NAM(NON-TROPICAL MODEL) hr 003 TILL 84


Quoting Chucktown:


I heard that Press. LOL !! We shouldn't have any problems here, other than some marine issues. The trough will dig pretty hard over the SE US as it goes negative and becomes NW - SE oriented. Now, folks from the OBX to New England are going to have to watch very closely, as this could be a strong nor'easter by this time next week.


A very, very, very, very, VERY strong Nor'easter. I've never seen a sub 930mb nor'easter ever predicted before by the CMC, or the ECMWF. If in the event the models were correct, it would be a nor'easter unlike the which we have ever seen.
18Z NAM(NON-TROPICAL MODEL) hr 006 TILL 84


Quoting Wunderwood:


Well stated. The rule of thumb for those of us in South FL is that we should keep an eye on any storm to our south or southeast. This does not mean that we are wishcasting, we are being prudent. No track is set in stone this early. Crazy things can happen, like Wilma intensifying before hitting us when it was supposed to be sheared and weakened.


...and because of Wilma, sometimes the Southwest! Especially this part of the season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


A very, very, very, very, VERY strong Nor'easter. I've never seen a sub 930mb nor'easter ever predicted before by the CMC, or the ECMWF.


Im freaked out already. I live in the woods in CT... that VERY...VERY...VERY.. is not working for me here
As someone mentioned earlier, most of the models keep the convection to the west, which is unusual.

Quoting HurricaneKing:


Neither am I, though I have seen them disagree with the HPC if they thought other models like in this case the GFS looked more realisitic. So it's giving the EURO more credit that the HPC and some of the NWS's are leaning towards its solution.

My thoughts on this storm are that we need to watch the trough. It all depends on the tilt the trough takes as to which direction the storm will go. A positive tilt the storm doesnt get captured and goes harmlessly out to sea.(Well harmless for the east coast. The poor Caribbean islands are going to take a beating either way.) Negative tilt tends to include capture and a Euro like solution. I will say that even if it gets captured I think the EURO and CMC are overkill pressure wise. We have to remember what they were showing with Irene when she was in a similar location.

I agree
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
who says TD18 or Sandy/Tony this is The EAST COAST KATRINA

What? No one except you is saying this. This thing hasn't even developed into a tropical storm yet, and the models still don't have a good handle on either path or intensity. It's way too early to even be thinking such a thing.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Um... yeah....

Ladies and gentlemen, your winner of the 2012 "Model Doomcane of Doom" award goes to...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Im freaked out already. I live in the woods in CT... that VERY...VERY...VERY.. is not working for me here


I'm not trying to freak people out, as the ECMWF/CMC often have way to low and unrealistic pressures, one of the ECMWF's only downsides actually, but it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. For now, watch and wait.
Just hypothetically asking a question but has there ever been an evacuation for a nor'easter before?
A perfectly phased Nor'Sandy ai?

If this indeed pans out, someone in the east is gonna get

...A cool/cold Halloween!

...A white Halloween!

...A mild/wet Halloween!

...Or all of the above!!!
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Yup not good for the beaches. Some erosion is sure to come out of this. I wonder how close Fort Laudy beach will come to A1A this time.


Remember a few years ago when there was not much of Ft Lauderdale Beach at all?


I forget which storm (Frances?) where I ventured out to Sunrise Blvd and A1A only to find everything north of there completely part of the ocean. An eerie feeling it was, at midnight, the Atlantic Ocean lapping at my car door. I didn't stay long.

18Z NAM(NON-TROPICAL MODEL) hr 009 TILL 84


290. 7544
fl should keep one eye out remember this is not 10 days out close to home only 4 days out stay tuned
18Z NAM(NON-TROPICAL MODEL) hr 012 TILL 84


Recon needs to take a sample of the eastern side of the center of circulation, looks interesting.
Quoting Grothar:
As someone mentioned earlier, most of the models keep the convection to the west, which is unusual.



That is odd... isn't the increasing wind shear supposed to be coming from the SW?
Quoting Grothar:
As someone mentioned earlier, most of the models keep the convection to the west, which is unusual.


And doesn't make a lot of sense, since a huge trough is coming down by Saturday. It seems like, if the storm really stays west, the west side should get torn up by dry air and wind shear, not to mention getting a pretty good push to the east. What happens with TD18 is totally dependent how fast TD18 moves north and the strength and timing of the trough. A whole bunch of things have to happen to turn this into an east coast storm, with the left being the strong side. Anything could happen, of course, but this is why I don't draw to a pair of tens in blackjack. :)
The ECWMF forecast for the next 5 days with 18L is very reasonable, based on the current trends. A dive to the SW, then hooks NE with the trough, with a strengthening storm making landfall in Cuba. After that, it's questionable. Shows an area of low pressure developing on the western side of the circulation that draws it fairly close to Florida, before sending it up to New England as a horrific nor'easter, though that is overdone.
18Z NAM(NON-TROPICAL MODEL) hr 015 TILL 84


297. 7544
one mb drop down to 1002 ?
Much warmer SST's in the NE than usual.

Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Remember a few years ago when there was not much of Ft Lauderdale Beach at all?


I forget which storm (Frances?) where I ventured out to Sunrise Blvd and A1A only to find everything north of there completely part of the ocean. An eerie feeling it was, at midnight, the Atlantic Ocean lapping at my car door. I didn't stay long.


Yup that was Frances. here's a pic I took the morning after.
Quoting Grothar:
As someone mentioned earlier, most of the models keep the convection to the west, which is unusual.



You listen to Levi's video? He explains in detail why.
T.C.F.A
18L/TD/NN/XX
MARK
13.79N/77.89W
Quoting ncstorm:
Just hypothetically asking a question but has there ever been an evacuation for a nor'easter before?

Theres a first for everything
19L CYCLONE DEPRESSION
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


That is odd... isn't the increasing wind shear supposed to be coming from the SW?


Yes, but it doesn't seem to be on this one. Almost all the models are showing a stronger west side than east side in the later frames.
Updated 18z Best Track with recon position.

AL, 18, 2012102218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 788W, 25, 1002, TD
Quoting Grothar:
As someone mentioned earlier, most of the models keep the convection to the west, which is unusual.

Gro.......... I was going to visit my aunt that lives in Davie the day before Thanksgiving.... I was going to head down there about 3:00 PM... Do you think the weather will be ok, or should I leave around noon to be on the safe side.???
18Z NAM(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 021 TILL 84


Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Gro.......... I was going to visit my aunt that lives in Davie the day before Thanksgiving.... I was going to head down there about 3:00 PM... Do you think the weather will be ok, or should I leave around noon to be on the safe side.???

Your going to Davie, I take you're going by horse then so yes.... leave very early.
Recon got 39mph winds- that's a TS.
TD19 is closer to becoming Sandy than TD18 is.
AL, 19, 2012102218, , BEST, 0, 218N, 517W, 30, 1006, DB
Little shift west with the models. NHC is the eastern outlier.

18Z NAM(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 024 TILL 84


Quoting 954FtLCane:

Your going to Davie, I take you're going by horse then so yes.... leave very early.
I hate riding my horse down I-95. It's so hard to text with people honking their horn
There we go, 50mph Flight level winds with 40mph SFC winds. Pressure down to 1001mb too. If that's the case, the COC is at 12.1N

35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TD19 is closer to becoming Sandy than TD18 is.
AL, 19, 2012102218, , BEST, 0, 218N, 517W, 30, 1006, DB


I thought it might, but we also very well might have two systems declared Tropical Storms at the same time. Like... exactly. I guess if that happened, TD18 would be Sandy because it was classified as a cyclone before 19.
Time: 20:01:30Z
Coordinates: 12.0667N 78.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 973.3 mb (~ 28.74 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 253 meters (~ 830 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1001.8 mb (~ 29.58 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 214° at 43 knots (From the SSW/SW at ~ 49.4 mph)
Air Temp: 23.1°C (~ 73.6°F)
Dew Pt: 22.7°C (~ 72.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
18Z NAM(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 030 TILL 84


All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalDepressionEighteen @ 22Oct.6pm
Since the previous mapping, AL18's StormStatus on 22Oct.12pm has been reevaluated&altered from (closed)LOw to TropicalDepression
13.7n77.9w was reevaluated&altered
13.6n78.1w-13.5n78.7w are now the most recent positions

PUZ-PuertoCabezas :: PVA-Providencia :: ADZ-SanAndres :: BOC-Bocas del Toro

The kinked line traces Invest99L's path as a closed low
The westernmost dot on the kinked line is where 99L became TropicalDepressionEighteen
The easternmost dot on the longest straight line is TD.18's most recent position

The longest straight line is a straightline projection through TD.18's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to an inhabited coastline.
22Oct.6pm: TD18 had been heading toward passage 19.6miles(31.6kilometres)South of Providencia

Click this link to the GreatCirleMapper for more info
at the halfway pt of the season i picked 4 more cyclones well we got that and maybe another one shortly. not one of the characters except for mind said more than 2 more. hum i might of been one or two short even
46 kt FL, 35 kt SFMR, 1001mb pressure - Sandy?
GFS at 96 hours...............
TD#18 has TS force winds in it its just that center is further SSW/SSW than thought.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
46 kt FL, 35 kt SFMR, 1001mb pressure - Sandy?


No doubt @ 5pm
Good afternoon everyone, I see I have missed a lot today. I am not surprised to see we have TD18 and 90L renumbered. Looks like we should get to at least Tony this year. I saw the 12z Euro, that would suck for millions of people. Also I noticed all the other global models make TD18 into a hurricane which I think will happen.
GFS at 144 hours............
To me the forecast seems to hinge on how fast the High in the Carolina s moves speed wise and directionally.
Recon got near 60mph winds but the rain rate was high. The highest reading with rain rates less than .75 inches per hour was 47mph.
A lot of dry air resides to the storm's NW which is typical for this time of the year. There probably will be a fair amount of convection on the west side of the storm, but the moisture gradient is going to be very tight. The east side of the storm will still be the wetter side.

Link
Recon now getting 60mph SFMR winds, though it appears it was rain contaminated.

9 mm/hr
(~ 1.54 in/hr)
Good evening fellow bloggers! I see that TD 18 is pretty close to a TS.
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 144 hours............
you know thats the 12z run right
Quoting Doppler22:

Theres a first for everything


Noel 2007..it was extratropical when it came by
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 96 hours...............


Is this the 18z
NAEFS model at 162 hours.........................
No doubt we have TS Sandy, entire page of 40-45mph SFMR winds. Let's wait for the VDM.
18Z NAM(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 036 TILL 84


Charleston NWS disco seems to lean towards the GFS

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PATTERN GETS INTERESTING LATE THIS WEEK TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE
EAST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A POWERFUL UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW RECENTLY FORMED TD EIGHTEEN TRACKING OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND LIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. THE GFS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
REALISTIC...TAKING IT GRADUALLY NE AND E AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION REGARDING TD
EIGHTEEN...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FORECAST. WE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. A COOL DOWN IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
Time: 20:05:00Z
Coordinates: 12.0N 77.9833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 973.5 mb (~ 28.75 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 256 meters (~ 840 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 213° at 39 knots (From the SSW at ~ 44.8 mph)
Air Temp: 20.0°C* (~ 68.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 39 mm/hr (~ 1.54 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
would TWC use a winter storm name for 99L besides its tropical name?
GFS at 144 hours 12z i think..................
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
would TWC use a winter storm name for 99L besides its tropical name?
trHU....It's only Monday....Please don't ask such a difficult question
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There we go, 50mph Flight level winds with 40mph SFC winds. Pressure down to 1001mb too. If that's the case, the COC is at 12.1N

35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph)


Wow it is at 12.1N thats interesting but how about the longitude is it closer to 80W if it is then South Florida impact would increase quite a bit.
T.C.F.W
18L/TS/S/CX
MARK
13.79N/77.89W
I see we may have Sandy and td 19 this is an amazing season could RI occur with td 18 may become a major if it continues to intensify?
18Z NAM(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 042 TILL 84


Quoting nigel20:


Big convection ball just south or right over the COC ready ready to explode and help build a good CDO with anticyclone right over it to prevent shear. I would not be surprise if this becomes a hurricane by tomorrow. Stay safe bro.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2012


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 51.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 51.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 51.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N 51.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.4N 51.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.7N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 51.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 144 hours............


GFS (most reliable model lately) has TD 18 way offshore. High waves/beach erosion would be the only impacts on the East coast.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 222033
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
500 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE
DAY...AND BOTH TAFB AND SAB PROVIDED 1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.0. ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN WITH 30-KT WINDS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...SO SOME STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY. AFTER 48 HOURS...
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT...AND
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
FRONTAL LOW...AND A WEAK ONE AT THAT...BY 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK IN INTENSITY OCCURRING IN
48 HOURS WITH STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. INTERESTINGLY...THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 EVEN IN THE FACE OF MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THAT
THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL FEED
OFF OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS LOWER THAN MOST
OF THE HURRICANE MODELS. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY DAY 5 WHEN
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
350/6 KT. THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BE PICKED UP
BY FASTER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE
GFS MODEL AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 22.3N 51.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 23.7N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 25.4N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 27.7N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 30.0N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1800Z 33.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
TD19 on the NHC site, predicted to peak at 60mph.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Is this the 18z
''

18z GFS isn't out yet.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
500 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE
DAY...AND BOTH TAFB AND SAB PROVIDED 1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.0. ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN WITH 30-KT WINDS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...SO SOME STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY. AFTER 48 HOURS...
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT...AND
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
FRONTAL LOW...AND A WEAK ONE AT THAT...BY 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK IN INTENSITY OCCURRING IN
48 HOURS WITH STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. INTERESTINGLY...THE
SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 EVEN IN THE FACE OF MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THAT
THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL FEED
OFF OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS LOWER THAN MOST
OF THE HURRICANE MODELS. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY DAY 5 WHEN
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
350/6 KT. THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BE PICKED UP
BY FASTER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE
GFS MODEL AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 22.3N 51.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 23.7N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 25.4N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 27.7N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 30.0N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/1800Z 33.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
IMO, 50mph Tropical Storm Sandy with a pressure of 1001mb seems the best guess for me.
We get two depression by the price of one.cool.
We have TD19 and it is expected to become a TS.
...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE DAY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 22
Location: 22.3°N 51.7°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
000
WTNT34 KNHC 222033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
500 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE DAY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 51.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN TUESDAY NIGHT.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


GFS (most reliable model lately) has TD 18 way offshore. High waves/beach erosion would be the only impacts on the East coast.
Sfl..........I agree with you... Looks like a few here just want something to talk about(whether right or wrong)
18L is a storm and its name is sandy
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
would TWC use a winter storm name for 99L besides its tropical name?


Does the rooster crow in the morning?
The wind is kicking today here in West Palm Beach...Looks like we will be keeping the 20mph winds for the whole week.
18Z NAM(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 048 TILL 84


Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO, 50mph Tropical Storm Sandy with a pressure of 1001mb seems the best guess for me.


Are serious all the way up to 50mph. I think hurricane watches will be good up for Jamaica if not Central/Eastern Cuba.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
trHU....It's only Monday....Please don't ask such a difficult question
someone already answered it...
18Z NAM(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 060 TILL 84


Quoting weatherh98:


Does the rooster crow in the morning?


I love your confidence
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I love your confidence


My real answer:

They will name it major super winter storm sandy.
hurricane watches will likely go up for jamaica and portions of central and eastern cuba expect a tropical storm warning for jamaica and if Td 18 moves further west a watch may be needed for the caymans
Quoting weatherh98:


My real answer:

They will name it major super winter storm sandy.


Still waiting to confirm Sandy.
18Z NAM(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 069 TILL 84


341 trHUrrIXC5MMX: Would TWC use a winter storm name for [AL18] besides its tropical name?

From it's own list? Nah, they'd go for SnowicaneSquirrel along with the rest of the media.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
hurricane watches will likely go up for jamaica and portions of central and eastern cuba expect a tropical storm warning for jamaica and if Td 18 moves further west a watch may be needed for the caymans
don't tell wkcayman...
Recon~ just a hint of NNW wind 999.0 mb (~ 29.50 inHg)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Still waiting to confirm Sandy.
it will be done shortly
looking at computer models i do not see a reason to shift the forecast cone maybe a slight west shift but models are in pretty good agreement. as for us here in SE FLA the winds are beginning to crank up and will continue to increase to wind advisory criteria.
will now if TD 18 be comes the S storm and TD 19 be comes the T storm i think that would mark the 3rd or 4th time in a row we had 19 name storms in a season


dos any one still think this sesson is a bust ???



all so we still have nov and i think we could see one or two more name storms
18Z NAM(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 075 TILL 84


Looks like recon turned around. Just trying to confirm the closed surface low.
95% chance we will have TS Sandy
it appears the center is reforming around based on recon info
18Z NAM FINAL(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 084 TILL 84




NEXT UP 18Z GFS RUN IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES

*Jeopardy Music playing*
Refresh...... Refresh.... Refresh....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18Z NAM FINAL(NON TROPICAL MODEL) hr 084 TILL 84




NEXT UP 18Z GFS RUN IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES

you are killing us with the same posts keeper
999.1 MB!! wow
Quoting Seflhurricane:
95% chance we will have TS Sandy
I say 99%
I think 45mph seems like a good bet for the new advisory, which should be out any second.
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...
Sandy confirmed!! 40mph
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA TONIGHT.
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...
5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 22
Location: 12.5°N 78.5°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Public
Advisory
#2
Sub 1000mb cyclone and dropping according to recon.
No big shift west just a slight one on day 4-5. Basely a straight NNE path.
No change to the forecast intensity, no real change to the track. I'd have gone with 50mph IMO.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
it appears the center is reforming around based on recon info


On what info do you base your statement?
S FL is now in it!!
Quoting Seflhurricane:
you are killing us with the same posts keeper
they are not same they run from 00 hr to 84 hr at random choices
Quoting CybrTeddy:
No change to the forecast intensity, no real change to the track. I'd have gone with 50mph IMO.
LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:
No change to the forecast intensity, no real change to the track. I'd have gone with 50mph IMO.

Based on what?

Tropical Storm SANDY Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT43 KNHC 222101
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR
35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM
IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM
WATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
And to break in and interrupt- I just added 4 fall foliage pictures to my blog. I have been on vacation from work for a few days, and finally had time to play a little. Enjoy!
Recon appears to be done. A big success as usual.
If the center makes it to 80-81W, The Caymans and Florida could be in play.
Sandy is not exclusively a female name. It can also be short for Sanford.
further south means hispanola landfall?
Lets the jokes with Sandy Cheeks Start.:)
Quoting Thing342:
Sandy is not exclusively a female name. It can also be short for Sanford.
But if you remember Rafael was the name before..male,female,male,female,male,female
CPC is forecasting above normal precip for the Mid Atlantic and NE in the 6-10 day time frame... I have doubts as to whether that's Sandy related precip though.

415. 7544
the cone can still shift west at 11pm imo stay tuned


19L. Should become Tony soon.
2012 is now the 4th most active on record...should TD19 becomes TS Tony then it will join 2010, 2011 and 1887 for the third place.

IF ANOTHER ONE FORMS...Valerie (might happen) we join 1933..a record for an El Nino-like season
TAz - I was thinking of a different picture of Sandy Cheeks... Ones that you might find on a beach.
Quoting Tazmanian:
will now if TD 18 be comes the S storm and TD 19 be comes the T storm i think that would mark the 3rd or 4th time in a row we had 19 name storms in a season


dos any one still think this sesson is a bust ???



all so we still have nov and i think we could see one or two more name storms


so you have changed your september forecast when you called the season over and now think there will be more storms? just curious on why you changed your position so radically
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but IF the European model is to be trusted with a landfall pressure at 926 mb it would surely be one of the most intense Nor'easter's in recorded history. To put it into perspective "The Storm of the Century" was 960 mb, and Katrina had the 3rd lowest pressure making landfall at 920 mb.

Does anyone have thoughts on the kind of impact / damage something like this could cause? Is there a way to prepare for something of this magnitude? TIA
Quoting Wunderwood:


On what info do you base your statement?
recon observations and wind info from recon
Quoting Dakster:
TAz - I was thinking of a different picture of Sandy Cheeks... Ones that you might find on a beach.



oh
It's hard to imagine a Halloween storm in 2012 being tricky to navigate.





Quoting floridafisherman:


so you have changed your september forecast when you called the season over and now think there will be more storms? just curious on why you changed your position so radically


do you track people down...stalker?
lol

well. no that many people though we could make it this far... I was one of them
Afternoon everyone. Sandy is starting to fill out.

Quoting floridafisherman:


so you have changed your september forecast when you called the season over and now think there will be more storms? just curious on why you changed your position so radically
Cruel
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 21:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 20:35:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°26'N 78°19'W (12.4333N 78.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 235 miles (378 km) to the NW (307°) from Cartagena, Colombia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ENE (77°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 165° at 42kts (From the SSE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ENE (71°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 446m (1,463ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 444m (1,457ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the east quadrant at 20:20:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (28°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MIN SLP 999MB DISPLACED FROM WIND CTR 045/12NM
Brand new discussion from the National Weather Service in Taunton, MA.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND BEYOND.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. SANDY WILL TRACK VERY SLOWLY NORTH FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK. MEANWHILE...BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND WHETHER OR NOT PHASING OCCURS WITH THE TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM.
IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN POTENTIAL WOULD BE BETWEEN NEXT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT WOULD DEPEND ON PHASING AND IF THE TRACK IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. IF AND ONLY IF ALL THE POTENTIAL
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM WOULD
AFFECT OUR REGION. KEEP IN MIND...THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS 7 TO 9
DAYS IN THE FUTURE. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AND A SYSTEM
PASSING HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
THE MAIN REASON WE DO NOT ISSUE HEADLINES MUCH MORE THAN 48 HOURS IN
ADVANCE IS BECAUSE TRACK ERRORS REMAIN TOO LARGE. WE ARE CURRENTLY
TALKING ABOUT A POTENTIAL STORM THAT IS A WEEK OR EVEN LONGER AWAY
FROM OUR AFFECTING OUR REGION. THERE CERTAINLY IS POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...BUT WE ARE AND WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE THE TIME
RANGE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SOLUTION.

WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT SO
INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS.
Interesting year to say the least; 18th storm of the Atlantic Season in mid-October and right in line with the general formation location and track direction we normally see in October storms based on climatology. Could well skirt the US East Coast in the coming week depending on the ridging set-up but Jamaica is first in line.

Here's hoping that it will remain as a tropical storm for the duration with minimal impacts for everyone concerned.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Cruel


yeah...That was not nice.
Quoting stormpetrol:
If the center makes it to 80-81W, The Caymans and Florida could be in play.


yes so true and something tells me that we will see a few more cones shifts to the W stormpetrol we need tokeep a close eye on this one
I would like to hear from Dr. Masters
I would love to listen to one of those calls..

NWS, Wilmington, NC

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE EXPERIENCING NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. EVEN LOCALLY THIS SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE THE CASE THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER SOME THINGS WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON EAST COAST WEATHER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONE WILL BE THE YET TO DEVELOP BUT PROBABLY
SOON TO BE NAMED TROPICAL STORM SANDY LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THE OTHER BIG PLAYER WILL BE THE DEEP TROUGH AND LEADING
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE
DEGREE TO WHICH THE TWO INTERACT IS BOTH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND OF
INCREASING POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE TO INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
AS INTERESTING AS SOME OF THE POSSIBILITIES ARE FURTHER TO THE NORTH
THE POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS ARE SIMILARLY UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH NOT SO
EXTREME. A FASTER/MORE AGGRESSIVELY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL SOONER
CAPTURE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND BRING IT CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
RAINFALL. THE BIGGEST IMPACT STILL SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO BE SOME
DANGEROUS SURF/RIP CURRENTS. A SLOWER/LAZIER UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST WILL MEAN A MUCH FURTHER EAST TRACK AND CONFINE LOCAL EFFECTS
TO THE WAVES AND RIPS. THE LONG RANGE CONFERENCE CALL BETWEEN HPC
AND NHC FAVORED THE MORE WESTERN SOLUTIONS.
AS SUCH HAVE ONCE AGAIN
RAISED THE WEEKEND WIND FORECAST BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES CAPPED
AT SLIGHT.
How this season currently stands...

Total depressions: 19
Total storms: 18
Total hurricanes: 9
Total majors: 1

Total Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 107.855 units
Storm with highest ACE: Nadine - 25.6 units
Storm with lowest ACE: Sandy - 0.1225 (Joyce/Helene - 0.2450)

May: 2-0-0
June: 2-1-0
July: 0-0-0
August: 8 (record)-4-0
September: 2-2-1
October: 4-1-0
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Based on what?


Several sustained winds of 50mph, non contaminated.
hi y'all
i see that we have sandy and td 19(future ts tony)
dang,we might just go exhaustion
title for the season is....
2012,the little season that could loll
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Several sustained winds of 50mph, non contaminated.

snady intensifiying more than expected.....
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Tropical Storm SANDY Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT43 KNHC 222101
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR
35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM
IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM
WATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.


Yes, I hate to say that it looks like it would like to do a WPac. it was looking so dogged last night and then today, what a change...and is just looking ominous to me
Quoting floridafisherman:


so you have changed your september forecast when you called the season over and now think there will be more storms? just curious on why you changed your position so radically



1st off none of your bee WAX 2nd you been reported
I think the NHC has their forcast too low. It looks like it is really organizing. I do kind of want it to come my way to mabye shed a day or two off school but not another one like irene. Pffft. servpro
No doubt we've got an organizing tropical storm on our hands. Also, the minimum pressure recorded was displaced 12NM from the center, according to the vortex. That means there is some disorganization of the core, but no were near as bad as it could be.
and to think NOAA predicted a below average hurricane season due to El Nino..
Quoting ncstorm:
and to think NOAA predicted a below average hurricane season due to El Nino..



oops
This caught my eye in the discussion, I had a feeling we might be dealing with this.
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR
35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM
IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM
WATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
too much going on in the Atlantic..unreal

Quoting ncstorm:
and to think NOAA predicted a below average hurricane season due to El Nino..

Most everybody did. And the ones that didn't did not even forecast to be as active as it has been.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most everybody did. And the ones that didn't did not even forecast to be as active as it has been.


I don't think anyone could have predicted this year would have 18 named storms and 9 hurricanes. The one major hurricane though..
Quoting ncstorm:
too much going on in the Atlantic..unreal

Even though September 10th is considered the peak day of the season, I vote for the middle and end of October for Florida..
In 24 hours from this:



To this:



Just a wee bit of organization there.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Even though September 10th is considered the peak day of the season, I vote for the middle and end of October for Florida..
Never to forget Wilma
Here is an interesting story on TS Sandy, looking at a possible worst-case scenario:
Grim Storm Scenarios Loom for Mid-Atlantic, Northeast
October 22nd, 2012, By Andrew Freedman

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most everybody did. And the ones that didn't did not even forecast to be as active as it has been.
I predict 16 name storms but I never thought 18 may get 19 soon with TD 19 strengthening into Tony.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFEL
5:00 AM PhST, October 23 2012
==============================

Tropical Depression "OFEL" has maintained its strength as it moves west towards northern Mindanao-eastern Visayas Area

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ofel [1000 hPa] located at 9.4°N 130.1°E or 460 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Visayas Region
=============
1. Leyte
2. Southern Leyte
3. Eastern Samar
4. Western Samar

Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Surigao Del Norte
2. Dinagat Island
3. Surigao Del Sur
4. Agusan Provinces
5. Camiguin Island


Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to Tropical Depression "OFEL" and the northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most everybody did. And the ones that didn't did not even forecast to be as active as it has been.


I think I went with 19 or 20. Didn't buy an official El Nino.

Had minimum of 3, probilby more for Oct. There is 3.. 4 is looking probable.
Quoting Skyepony:


I think I went with 19 or 20. Didn't buy an official El Nino.

Had minimum of 3, probilby more for Oct. There is 3.. 4 is looking probable.

We've had four already (Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy). Tropical Depression Nineteen should make it five tonight.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
i think in NOV we could see 2 name storms
I'm a little surprised how quickly the spin got going.
Warning: This forecast is NOT official...please refer to NHC for Official Forecasts:
Personal Forecast for TS Sandy:Rapid Intensification to commence shortly, this will likely be a significant hurricane by tomorrow night
My own official 2012 hurricane season forecast that I've kept secret until now calls for 21 named storms!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We've had four already (Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy). Tropical Depression Nineteen should make it five tonight.


Thanks! Has been a busy blur..