WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Caribbean disturbance 99L a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:12 PM GMT on October 20, 2012

A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are beginning to show some organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday. The Dominican Republic may also see some heavy rains, though not as great. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will approaching the Eastern U.S., and the GFS and ECMWF models predict that this trough will turn 99L to the north, bringing the storm into the southeast Bahama Islands on Thursday or Friday. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning. I put these odds higher, at 40%. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 99L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Invest 90L in the middle Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. The disturbance has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images, and has gotten tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system. This upper-level low is pumping cool, dry air into the disturbance, which will keep any development slow over the next few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, but is forecast to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Sunday through Monday. This may allow for some slow development of 90L before it encounters very high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots on Tuesday and Wednesday. None of the reliable computer models develop 90L into a tropical cyclone. It's unlikely that 90L will affect any land areas. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Slamguitar:
OFFICIAL SLAMGUITAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK "OUTLOOK"

8pm:

99L: 70%
90L: 20%


OFFICIAL NCH2009 OUTLOOK ON SLAMGUITAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OUTLOOK

80% chance of being correct...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not that much and sst have cooled in the gulf as well so don't expect a cat 3 or 4 coming for you.They would have to move at a pretty good clip.


wow...thats a little too high
But I'll enjoy watching it
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
no word why does ATCF gave an update at 15 UTC on Rafael?

I think they are just doing due diligence in tracking the remnants of Rafael...don't they always track a tropical system until its bitter end?
and something else just happened...

6.6 Mwp - VANUATU

Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude 6.6 Mwp
Date-Time
20 Oct 2012 23:00:32 UTC
21 Oct 2012 10:00:32 near epicenter
20 Oct 2012 18:00:32 standard time in your timezone
Location 13.572S 166.594E
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
What will 90L be at 8 PM.

A-30%
B-40%
C-50%
D-60%
E-Higher
F-Lower than 30%

I say A.
b
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will 99L be at 8PM
A. 50%
B. 60%
C. 70%
D. 80%
E. 90%

I say C or D
b
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


OFFICIAL NCH2009 OUTLOOK ON SLAMGUITAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OUTLOOK

80% chance of being correct...


I'll take those odds.
Still more to come...

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I think they are just doing due diligence in tracking the remnants of Rafael...don't they always track a tropical system until its bitter end?


does that mean Rafael is still somewhat a cyclone? No chances for coming back as people here said earlier
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not that much and sst have cooled in the gulf as well so don't expect a cat 3 or 4 coming for you.They would have to move at a pretty good clip.

If it happened to, I'd probably expect an Ida type intensity situation.
Quoting opal92nwf:

If it happened to, I'd probably expect an Ida type intensity situation.


I'll take it more like Paloma 2008. Conditions are good for a cat 4
forget the initial track
If I'm reading this right, we had a M-class solar flare a moment ago.

@wxbrad

View of the M-9 Class solar flare minutes ago. http://twitpic.com/b5ynun #spacewx #fb
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will 99L be at 8PM
A. 50%
B. 60%
C. 70%
D. 80%
E. 90%

I say C or D

I'm going to go with C.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
What will 90L be at 8 PM.

A-30%
B-40%
C-50%
D-60%
E-Higher
F-Lower than 30%

I say A.

I say A or B.
60% and 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
92C was discontinued but ... they kept talking about it a 8 AM HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1.a weak surface low about 965 miles south-southwest of Lihue is moving west slowly. Isolated thunderstorms, currently present at the periphery of the low, will remain disorganized. There is a low chance, near 0 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

I don't see the circle on the graphic though.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
If I'm reading this right, we had a M-class solar flare a moment ago.

@wxbrad

View of the M-9 Class solar flare minutes ago. http://twitpic.com/b5ynun #spacewx #fb

Not moments ago, but earlier this afternoon. Almost reached X class territory.



Almost a X-class.
Evening everyone. 99L looks like it will be the center of attention over the coming week as it tries to become Sandy. Satellite imagery reveals 99L is still an open wave, however, it is a very healthy one at that. Convection is intense and present in all quadrants (despite being heavily weighted to the east) which is a good sign of a moist and unstable environment. Upper level winds are light and anticyclonic while trade wind flow remains light. These favorable conditions lead me to believe this could be a depression by Sunday evening or Monday morning at the latest, like the statistical models show.

Beyond that time I believe it will hang around as a weak to moderate TS for the next few days. An upper level trough feature will amplify to the west of the storm which will bring upper convergence and shear to the storm preventing significant intensification. Although there is "jet fuel" below, the environment above is what will keep potential Sandy from bombing out.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Not moments ago, but earlier this afternoon. Almost reached X class territory.



Thanks for the correction. I guess that's why no one is mentioning it right now since that's already discussed.
The Last Pup, pick of Nola Roux's Hurricane Issac born litter today in the park.



Fat wave off of Africa.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


does that mean Rafael is still somewhat a cyclone? No chances for coming back as people here said earlier

Yes...its a cyclone alright...but a non-tropical one that used to be tropical.

Tropical: A surface cyclone supported by t-storm latent heat release...which creates a warm core upper ridge that ventilates it

Non-tropical: A surface cyclone supported by divergence ahead of a cold core upper trough or vortex...
Nola Roux

Quoting Patrap:
Nola Roux





how cute
Quoting LargoFl:
north of Tampa bay,down in the 40's..............



I just went running in this weather, absolutely perfect weather, if there was ever a time to vacation in Florida it would be now.


I just drove down to South Florida today to check out a car, its amazing how flooded it is down there, I saw a sea of blue under pine forests with cat tails growing in it, when I last went to south Florida, which was last Fall, it was much drier down there, much drier, its great to see the much needed hydrologic recovery in Florida.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Yes...its a cyclone alright...but a non-tropical one that used to be tropical.

Tropical: A surface cyclone supported by t-storm latent heat release...which creates a warm core upper ridge that ventilates it

Non-tropical: A surface cyclone supported by divergence ahead of a cold core upper trough or vortex...


When someone says to you cyclone...that does not mean tropical.
I did not specify...so you can't say I'm wrong
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will 99L be at 8PM
A. 50%
B. 60%
C. 70%
D. 80%
E. 90%

I say C or D


I'll go with b
Well, I said one would stay the same and one would go up by 10%. Just got them switched around.

Thanx Taz, she had 5 puppies the night of Hurricane Issac, that was the night of 28 Aug to Morning the 29th.

Published on Sep 3, 2012 by patrap

NOLA Roux delivering her Pups during Hurricane Issac, around 2 am Weds morning here in New Orleans. She delivered 4 here already with the last to come soon after this was filmed.


1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


When someone says to you cyclone...that does not mean tropical.
I did not specify...so you can't say I'm wrong

LOL...you are correct...sorry to imply otherwise...

I kinda said that to differentiate the distinction between the two types of cyclones for those that are lurking...learning...etc...
Quoting Grothar:


I'll go with b


you did go to to the NHC site to make sure you were right prior to pick? still 60%
Still at 60%
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

LOL...you are correct...sorry to imply otherwise...

I kinda said that to differentiate the distinction between the two types of cyclones for those that are lurking...learning...etc...


it's alright. Don't worry bro.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you did go to to the NHC site to make sure right prior to pick? still 60%


I thought it didn't come out until 8?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you did go to to the NHC site to make sure you were right prior to pick? still 60%


By the way, just interested, what languages do you speak?
Quoting Grothar:


I thought it didn't come out until 8?


many times it is out by 7:40 - 7:50 PM or even 7:30 PM...so you don't really have to wait until 8 on the dot...
Thank You WU Admin.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


many times it is out by 7:40 - 7:50 PM or even 7:30 PM...so you don't really have to wait until 8 on the dot...


Even sometimes the 2 AM TWO has been released between 1:00-1:30 AM EDT.
Atlantik tropikal hava görünüm


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202333
TWOAT

TROPİK HAVA GÖRÜNÜM
NWS ULUSAL KASIRGA MERKEZİ MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SAT 20 EKİM 2012

KUZEY ATLANTİK İÇİN...KARAYİP DENİZİ VE MEKSİKA KÖRFEZİ...

UYDU GÖRÜNTÜLERİ SAĞANAK VE GÖK GÜRÜLTÜLÜ İLİŞKİLENDİRİLMİŞ OLDUĞUNU GÖSTERİR
TROPİKAL DALGA ÜZERİNDE MERKEZ KARAYİP DENİZİ DEĞİŞTİ
ORGANİZASYON SIRASINDA SON BİRKAÇ SAAT İÇİNDE ÇOK AZ. ANCAK...
YÜZEY BASINÇLARI BÖLGEDE ALÇAK...VE ÇEVRE
KOŞULLAR TROPİKAL BİR VESİLE OLMASI BEKLENEN
ÖNÜMÜZDEKİ BİRKAÇ GÜN BOYUNCA DAHA FAZLA DEPRESYON FORMU İÇİN. BU SİSTEM VAR
YÜKSEK BİR ŞANS...YÜZDE 60'INI...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT YAVAŞ BATIYA DOĞRU DALGA HAMLE OLARAK. AĞIR YAĞMUR
BU RAHATSIZLIK YA DA OLASI TROPİKAL SİKLON OLASILIĞI VARDIR
JAMAİKA YAYILDI...DOĞU KÜBA...VE SONRAKİ İÇİNDE HISPANIOLA
BİRKAÇ GÜN. BU YAĞMURLAR YAŞAMI TEHDİT EDEN FLASH ÜRETMEK OLABİLİR
SELLER VE ÇAMUR SLAYTLAR...ÖZELLİKLE ÇEVRE ALANLARINDA YÜKSEK ARAZİ.

CLOUDINESS VE FIRTINALI ORTALANMIŞ YAKLAŞIK 1000 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST LEEWARD ADALARI İLE İLİŞKİLİ BİR
ÜST DÜZEY DÜŞÜK TROPİKAL BİR DALGA İLE ETKİLEŞİM. BU FAALİYET VARDIR
BİRAZ DAHA İYİ HALE GEÇMİŞ BİRKAÇ SAAT DÜZENLENEN...
ÜST DÜZEY RÜZGARLAR BİRAZ DAHA ELVERİŞLİ IÇIN HALİNE GELEBİLİR
GELİŞTİRME SIRASINDA ERTESİ GÜN YA DA ÖYLE BU SİSTEM BİR ORTA VARDIR
ŞANS...YÜZDE 30'U...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT OLARAK BT HAMLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD YÖNÜ 10 MİL.

BAŞKA BİR YERDE...TROPİK FIRTINA OLUŞUMU SIRASINDA BEKLENEN DEĞİL
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT.

$$
TAHMİNCİSİ BEVEN
For those wondering how 90L its getting better organized...I did a detailed synopsis on it (as well as 99L) as of 6 PM using 1800Z data. Their are two Figures in that post for 90L to help explain because frankly...90L is more complex in structure than 99L....
Quoting Grothar:


By the way, just interested, what languages do you speak?


hug! I thought no one read that comment..thanks for asking by the way.

Io parlo Italiano
Yo hablo español
English (obviously)
Je parle français
linguam Latinam dico


all of those...learning Arabic and then German (maybe) and some more later
90L RainBowTop Loop

18z HWRF takes the system passed 80 West before looping back around and heading Northeast.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Thank You WU Admin.




thank you? WU admin?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Even sometimes the 2 AM TWO has been released between 1:00-1:30 AM EDT.


right...when there is nothing to talk about..at the 2 AM update they do it at 1 AM one time I sat them releasing it at 12:25 AM!!!

NHC people just want to get over things
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hug! I thought no one read that comment..thanks for asking by the way.

Io parlo Italiano
Yo hablo español
English (obviously)
Je parle français
linguam Latinam dico


all of those...learning Arabic and then German (maybe) and some more later


We have to write off blog sometime. I know a few of those. I can help you with your German if you ever need it.
Quoting Patrap:
Atlantik tropikal hava görünüm


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202333
TWOAT

TROPİK HAVA GÖRÜNÜM
NWS ULUSAL KASIRGA MERKEZİ MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SAT 20 EKİM 2012

KUZEY ATLANTİK İÇİN...KARAYİP DENİZİ VE MEKSİKA KÖRFEZİ...

UYDU GÖRÜNTÜLERİ SAĞANAK VE GÖK GÜRÜLTÜLÜ İLİŞKİLENDİRİLMİŞ OLDUĞUNU GÖSTERİR
TROPİKAL DALGA ÜZERİNDE MERKEZ KARAYİP DENİZİ DEĞİŞTİ
ORGANİZASYON SIRASINDA SON BİRKAÇ SAAT İÇİNDE ÇOK AZ. ANCAK...
YÜZEY BASINÇLARI BÖLGEDE ALÇAK...VE ÇEVRE
KOŞULLAR TROPİKAL BİR VESİLE OLMASI BEKLENEN
ÖNÜMÜZDEKİ BİRKAÇ GÜN BOYUNCA DAHA FAZLA DEPRESYON FORMU İÇİN. BU SİSTEM VAR
YÜKSEK BİR ŞANS...YÜZDE 60'INI...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT YAVAŞ BATIYA DOĞRU DALGA HAMLE OLARAK. AĞIR YAĞMUR
BU RAHATSIZLIK YA DA OLASI TROPİKAL SİKLON OLASILIĞI VARDIR
JAMAİKA YAYILDI...DOĞU KÜBA...VE SONRAKİ İÇİNDE HISPANIOLA
BİRKAÇ GÜN. BU YAĞMURLAR YAŞAMI TEHDİT EDEN FLASH ÜRETMEK OLABİLİR
SELLER VE ÇAMUR SLAYTLAR...ÖZELLİKLE ÇEVRE ALANLARINDA YÜKSEK ARAZİ.

CLOUDINESS VE FIRTINALI ORTALANMIŞ YAKLAŞIK 1000 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST LEEWARD ADALARI İLE İLİŞKİLİ BİR
ÜST DÜZEY DÜŞÜK TROPİKAL BİR DALGA İLE ETKİLEŞİM. BU FAALİYET VARDIR
BİRAZ DAHA İYİ HALE GEÇMİŞ BİRKAÇ SAAT DÜZENLENEN...
ÜST DÜZEY RÜZGARLAR BİRAZ DAHA ELVERİŞLİ IÇIN HALİNE GELEBİLİR
GELİŞTİRME SIRASINDA ERTESİ GÜN YA DA ÖYLE BU SİSTEM BİR ORTA VARDIR
ŞANS...YÜZDE 30'U...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT OLARAK BT HAMLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD YÖNÜ 10 MİL.

BAŞKA BİR YERDE...TROPİK FIRTINA OLUŞUMU SIRASINDA BEKLENEN DEĞİL
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT.

$$
TAHMİNCİSİ BEVEN


cool...I don't recognize that language though.
Quoting Grothar:


We have to write off blog sometime. I know a few of those. I can help you with your German if you ever need it.


I'll love if you could...I just never took a course in High school because my schedule was full.
You know it really well then.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Thank You WU Admin.
Is he finally gone?
JFV "thummped",

Again.

: )
no one said anything about the Epac...that's the hurricane to become in a couple of days I've been talking about

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting Patrap:
Atlantik tropikal hava görünüm


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202333
TWOAT

TROPİK HAVA GÖRÜNÜM
NWS ULUSAL KASIRGA MERKEZİ MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SAT 20 EKİM 2012

KUZEY ATLANTİK İÇİN...KARAYİP DENİZİ VE MEKSİKA KÖRFEZİ...

UYDU GÖRÜNTÜLERİ SAĞANAK VE GÖK GÜRÜLTÜLÜ İLİŞKİLENDİRİLMİŞ OLDUĞUNU GÖSTERİR
TROPİKAL DALGA ÜZERİNDE MERKEZ KARAYİP DENİZİ DEĞİŞTİ
ORGANİZASYON SIRASINDA SON BİRKAÇ SAAT İÇİNDE ÇOK AZ. ANCAK...
YÜZEY BASINÇLARI BÖLGEDE ALÇAK...VE ÇEVRE
KOŞULLAR TROPİKAL BİR VESİLE OLMASI BEKLENEN
ÖNÜMÜZDEKİ BİRKAÇ GÜN BOYUNCA DAHA FAZLA DEPRESYON FORMU İÇİN. BU SİSTEM VAR
YÜKSEK BİR ŞANS...YÜZDE 60'INI...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT YAVAŞ BATIYA DOĞRU DALGA HAMLE OLARAK. AĞIR YAĞMUR
BU RAHATSIZLIK YA DA OLASI TROPİKAL SİKLON OLASILIĞI VARDIR
JAMAİKA YAYILDI...DOĞU KÜBA...VE SONRAKİ İÇİNDE HISPANIOLA
BİRKAÇ GÜN. BU YAĞMURLAR YAŞAMI TEHDİT EDEN FLASH ÜRETMEK OLABİLİR
SELLER VE ÇAMUR SLAYTLAR...ÖZELLİKLE ÇEVRE ALANLARINDA YÜKSEK ARAZİ.

CLOUDINESS VE FIRTINALI ORTALANMIŞ YAKLAŞIK 1000 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST LEEWARD ADALARI İLE İLİŞKİLİ BİR
ÜST DÜZEY DÜŞÜK TROPİKAL BİR DALGA İLE ETKİLEŞİM. BU FAALİYET VARDIR
BİRAZ DAHA İYİ HALE GEÇMİŞ BİRKAÇ SAAT DÜZENLENEN...
ÜST DÜZEY RÜZGARLAR BİRAZ DAHA ELVERİŞLİ IÇIN HALİNE GELEBİLİR
GELİŞTİRME SIRASINDA ERTESİ GÜN YA DA ÖYLE BU SİSTEM BİR ORTA VARDIR
ŞANS...YÜZDE 30'U...TROPİKAL SİKLON SIRASINDA OLMA
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT OLARAK BT HAMLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD YÖNÜ 10 MİL.

BAŞKA BİR YERDE...TROPİK FIRTINA OLUŞUMU SIRASINDA BEKLENEN DEĞİL
SONRAKİ 48 SAAT.

$$
TAHMİNCİSİ BEVEN


I guess I have to tell them cloudiness is bulutluluk.
555. txjac
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hug! I thought no one read that comment..thanks for asking by the way.

Io parlo Italiano
Yo hablo español
English (obviously)
Je parle français
linguam Latinam dico


all of those...learning Arabic and then German (maybe) and some more later


Planning on working at the UN? Impressive!
Gro: La verdad que usted es un General...
As Dr. Masters mentions,the threat is a real one to the Islands.

"A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are beginning to show some organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday."


99L WV Loop

Quoting txjac:


Planning on working at the UN? Impressive!


who can store so much in the brain right???
Quoting sunlinepr:


Be carefull, maybe it is prohibited here to post in the

GÜRÜLTÜLÜ İLİŞKİLENDİRİLMİŞ language..... ;)


Nah, Turkish is one of my fav's actually,along with their Bath's as well.

: )
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I'll love if you could...I just never took a course in High school because my schedule was full.
You know it really well then.


Yes, being German I should. :) Even though I was born in the US, English is really my third language. We were raised mostly in Europe.
Quoting Jedkins01:



I just went running in this weather, absolutely perfect weather, if there was ever a time to vacation in Florida it would be now.


I just drove down to South Florida today to check out a car, its amazing how flooded it is down there, I saw a sea of blue under pine forests with cat tails growing in it, when I last went to south Florida, which was last Fall, it was much drier down there, much drier, its great to see the much needed hydrologic recovery in Florida.


Hey Jed...

These much lower dew points are very much welcomed. 99L has me concerned a bit but we'll see.

Take a look at this..

I thought you learned Sumerian first Gro ?


ACK!!!


Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities by GFS Ensembles:



Quoting Grothar:


Yes, being German I should. :) Even though I was born in the US, English is really my third language. We were raised mostly in Europe.


My zone manager is German. Speaks rather good English, too.
Quoting Grothar:


We have to write off blog sometime. I know a few of those. I can help you with your German if you ever need it.


well...let me get off topic for a sec with you..
There was this pretty girl in my former school, she was German but she didn't Speak English so much and people had a hard time understanding what she wanted to say. Since she sat next to me in math I was often asked to help her and eventually I felt in love with her but I never told her because I din't think she was going to leave back to Germany. I was upset for few days. Good thing we became friends in Facebook. But we have a hard time communicating. She now knows I liked her.

ok...sorry you guys.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, being German I should. :) Even though I was born in the US, English is really my third language. We were raised mostly in Europe.


Ohh..I see
Quoting Patrap:
I thought you learned Sumerian first Gro ?


ACK!!!




It was,Pat. But I'm a little rusty in it now. Every once in awhile I "scratch" out a few words.
Don't think anybodies posted the 800PM, I'll just do it :)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

2. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting KoritheMan:


My zone manager is German. Speaks rather good English, too.


So do I. :P j/k
Quoting Grothar:


It was,Pat. But I'm a little rusty in it now. Every once in awhile I "scratch" out a few words.


I got a Wu mail from the Mayan Mother ship.

They are NOT happy folks and well, they are on schedule for the Solstice Arrival.

Something about more Gumbo being needed as well.
Quoting aspiring2012:
Don't think anybodies posted the 800PM, I'll just do it :)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOUR. HOWEVER...
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

2. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



wow...you're so late!!!!!!

I didn't even bother to post it...like 50 people did already 20 minutes ago
Pre-Shary '10:



90L:

573. JRRP
Quoting GTcooliebai:
18z HWRF takes the system passed 80 West before looping back around and heading Northeast.


a bit more east on this run
Quoting sunlinepr:
Gro: La verdad que usted es un General...


No, pero casi. Estoy jubilado ahora.
8 PM Special Feature Discussion for 90L:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N48W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 17N46W TO
13N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1536 UTC OSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS
THE LOW CENTER WELL. A STRONG WIND FIELD WITH E TO NE WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT...IS WELL N OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS
AREA CLOSELY MIRRORS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 40W-51W AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N50W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

8 PM Special Feature Discussion for 99L:

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS FROM 20N75W TO A 1007
MB LOW AT 15N73W TO 12N72W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MAXIMUM VALUES OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
69W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-74W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTERED IS OVER THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN.
Quoting Grothar:


No, No, pero casi. Estoy jubilado ahora.


Need a towel to clean up?
Quoting Dakster:


Need a towel to clean up?


It's international night. Just waiting to see what 99L does. Keep your shutters ready.
Quoting Grothar:


It's international night. Just waiting to see what 99L does. Keep your shutters ready.


I don't expect renumbering at any time soon. But I never know
18z GFDL. That's 950mb:

Quoting Grothar:


So do I. :P j/k


But you do.
I see that. Google translator app at the ready, just in case.

Write away.... In whatever language floats your boat.
Quoting Dakster:
I see that. Google translator app at the ready, just in case.

Write away.... In whatever language floats your boat.


I had to do what when trying to talk with that girl I talked about but google doesn't do a great job either.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFDL. That's 950mb:



And headed right for South Carolina... Dang, cat 3/4 right?
Latest intensity models.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFDL. That's 950mb:



personally I hate when these models go like that, why do they overdo things.
Watch tomorrow be 935 or 920.
Partial fresh ASCAT of wave in the Central Atlantic.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I had to do what when trying to talk with that girl I talked about but google doesn't do a great job either.


Yeah, it will let you sorta understand what has been said, but writing back not so good..l it's English to Arabic is quite awful.
Quoting KoritheMan:


But you do.


How do you know, you've never heard me speak. lol
Quoting Dakster:


Yeah, it will let you sorta understand what has been said, but writing back not so good..l it's English to Arabic is quite awful.


completely terrible...they have to make it be a expert translating but no software can translate better than us...however wait another 50 years to see these change.
Quoting Dakster:


And headed right for South Carolina... Dang, cat 3/4 right?

Hard to say, that's the last frame on the 18z run. Most likely it would stay more out to sea with a trough coming in though.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFDL. That's 950mb:


Yeah... I don't see it getting that strong, not even close. I think a peak of a category 1 is way more likely.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hard to say, that's the last frame on the 18z run. Most likely it would stay more out to sea with a trough coming in though.


This is the time of year for trofs out to sea. Lookout Bermuda?
yeeee!!! My 2012th post!!!!!!!

by the way..who keeps track of these?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


completely terrible...they have to make it be a expert translating but no software can translate better than us...however wait another 50 years to see these change.


I will be dead in 50 years.... Tell me when you join the dead how it went.
Better look at part of 90L ASCAT
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yeah... I don't see it getting that strong, not even close. I think a peak of a category 1 is way more likely.


I will never again be intimidated by the pressure...Isaac 968's changed my view of it. I agree with you becoming cat 1 maybe 2
Quoting Dakster:


I will be dead in 50 years.... Tell me when you join the dead how it went.


In 50 years I'll be in my 70s (by nature) not really sure If I'll go that far. But by then everything would be very advanced. Like in the movie Wall-E (not having that many fat people) ...lol
Quoting Grothar:


How do you know, you've never heard me speak. lol


How do you know I haven't?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
yeeee!!! My 2012th post!!!!!!!

by the way..who keeps track of these?

Nope, that was your 2014th post
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
yeeee!!! My 2012th post!!!!!!!

by the way..who keeps track of these?


I'm at 19,376, you need to catch up. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


How do you know I haven't?


OK, what type of accent do I have then?
Quoting 12george1:

Nope, that was your 2014th post


well I made two more posts after and it changed...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


In 50 years I'll be in my 70s (by nature) not really sure If I'll go that far. But by then everything would be very advanced. Like in the movie Wall-E (not having that many fat people) ...lol


Good chance you will be around. Not so sure about a wall-e world though... I will be in my 90's and that would break my bloodline longevity record.

Just remember to keep learning, they can fix just about everything else.
Quoting Grothar:


OK, what type of accent do I have then?


A German one. Duh.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm at 19,376, you need to catch up. ;)


you're here since '05...I been coming here since 2006 but made an account last year otherwise I'll be in the 15,000s or more
Quoting Grothar:


OK, what type of accent do I have then?


Ummm... Never mind. Too easy... I give you a pass on that on Gro!

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you're here since '05...I been coming here since 2006 but made an account last year otherwise I'll be in the 15,000s or more

No excuse. I have 22,154 comments and I've been here since July 2010. ;)

Before anybody asks, yes, I have a life.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No excuse. I have 22,154 comments and I've been here since June 2010. ;)


Yes but we all know you have no life, so...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No excuse. I have 22,154 comments and I've been here since June 2010. ;)


well, good back-up there.... Do you sleep every night?
I mean I work everyday...so...

I'll catch up...don't worry
Weekend hello from Germany.
Bad times right now for pilgrims in Lourdes (southern France) because of heavy flooding and it's not going to become better, because more rain is on the way. The grotto seems to be partly submerged.

CBS News: Pilgrims evacuated from flood-threatened Lourdes



Edit: Report on BBC News
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes but we all know you have no life, so...


yes...I didn't want to use those terms but yeah that's what I meant.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes but we all know you have no life, so...
LOL don`t be bad.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No excuse. I have 22,154 comments and I've been here since July 2010. ;)

Before anybody asks, yes, I have a life.


that was late...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes but we all know you have no life, so...

I modified my comment right after posting it 'cause I knew you'd make that comment.

Know you so well. ;)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well, good back-up there.... Do you sleep every night?
I mean I work everyday...so...

I'll catch up...don't worry

I go to school the same amount of time you work and I go to bed at 11 at night.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I modified my comment right after posting it 'cause I knew you'd make that comment.

Know you so well. ;)


you're here for a long time everyday then...
71 now!:)
00z Best Track for 99L.

AL, 99, 2012102100, , BEST, 0, 147N, 737W, 25, 1006, DB
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I go to school the same amount of time you work.


how can you be so sure..???. today was my day off...
School time is nothing compared to the 12-15 hours of work I do
Im just 20 years old FYI
Quoting KoritheMan:


A German one. Duh.


Actually British, duh! lol.
JMA Model out to 144 hours
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I go to school the same amount of time you work and I go to bed at 11 at night.


I doubt that... My kids are not in school anywhere near as long as I work.
Quoting ncstorm:
JMA Model out to 144 hours
Trough comming to the rescue be dammned if cmc was right..
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
71 now!:)


Temperature or age?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how can you be so sure..???. today was my day off...
School time is nothing compared to the 12-15 hours of work I do
Im just 20 years old FYI


lol..he blogs from school too..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No excuse. I have 22,154 comments and I've been here since July 2010. ;)

Before anybody asks, yes, I have a life.

No you don't...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for 99L.

AL, 99, 2012102100, , BEST, 0, 147N, 737W, 25, 1006, DB

Pressure continues to lower, I think we should see a TD tomorrow.
Quoting Dakster:


Temperature or age?


no that nice there...although we know what he meant.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Trough comming to the rescue be dammned if cmc was right..


I dont like the CMC..trying to be consistent which is saying a lot when mentioning that model..
Quoting ncstorm:


lol..he blogs from school too..


I don't go to school...lol...graduated from High School...
done with that! I'll resume college in 5 years
New blog.

Actually finished early for a change...
Quoting barbamz:
Weekend hello from Germany.
Bad times right now for pilgrims in Lourdes (southern France) because of heavy flooding and it's not going to become better, because more rain is on the way. The grotto seems to be partly submerged.

CBS News: Pilgrims evacuated from flood-threatened Lourdes





Wie geht's? Ach, barb, sie necken mich um, über meinen Akzent. lol

I wasn't aware the flooding was so bad. Is that the same system?
00z Best Track for 90L.

AL, 90, 2012102100, , BEST, 0, 201N, 479W, 30, 1012, DB
I dont see the 18z ensembles spread for the GFS but here is the 12z





Wow I still have 9190 comments.Looks like my slow poke a__ needs to catch up.Lol.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't go to school...lol...graduated from High School...
done with that! I'll resume college in 5 years


I was talking about TA not you..
well guys that's it for today

Im tired so bye. By the way Gro I hope you could help me with that...
see y'all
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
no one said anything about the Epac...that's the hurricane to become in a couple of days I've been talking about

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


I'm really interested in the track on this one. The M storm, can't remember its name dumped a very large moisture field over northern Mexico on its way out. Got a few inches of rain from it.
Quoting ncstorm:


I dont like the CMC..trying to be consistent which is saying a lot when mentioning that model..
That means I'll have to cancel party plans.But a chance of that happening is little.
Quoting ncstorm:


I was talking about TA not you..


GET A LIFE!
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC SUN OCT 21 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20121021 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121021 0000 121021 1200 121022 0000 121022 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 47.9W 20.4N 49.0W 21.0N 50.4W 21.9N 51.9W
BAMD 20.1N 47.9W 21.3N 48.6W 22.0N 49.8W 22.6N 51.5W
BAMM 20.1N 47.9W 21.0N 48.7W 21.7N 50.0W 22.6N 51.6W
LBAR 20.1N 47.9W 20.8N 48.3W 21.4N 48.8W 22.1N 49.4W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121023 0000 121024 0000 121025 0000 121026 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 53.2W 25.1N 55.2W 26.3N 56.6W 27.7N 57.7W
BAMD 23.4N 52.6W 25.5N 51.3W 28.6N 44.6W 32.7N 33.1W
BAMM 23.7N 52.9W 25.9N 53.7W 28.0N 50.9W 30.4N 42.0W
LBAR 23.2N 49.4W 27.1N 47.9W 31.6N 41.2W 35.6N 29.4W
SHIP 48KTS 53KTS 47KTS 40KTS
DSHP 48KTS 53KTS 47KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 47.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 19.8N LONM12 = 46.8W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 45.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Going to get in the 50's!:) tonight!!
Quoting Grothar:


Wie geht's? Ach, barb, sie necken mich um, ber meinen Akzent. lol

I wasn't aware the flooding was so bad. Is that the same system?


Armer Grothar, ich habe gesehen, wie schlecht es dir hier geht ;-) But you are fighting for your german roots, don't you?

In Germany we enjoy a very nice late summer weekend. All the rain remains to the west of us. For now. Next weekend sudden freezing temperatures and maybe snow in Germany is forecasted. I'll have some work to do to save my plants on the terrace; some of them still blossoming.

214

WHXX01 KWBC 210040

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0040 UTC SUN OCT 21 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20121021 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

121021 0000 121021 1200 121022 0000 121022 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.7N 73.7W 15.0N 75.7W 15.1N 77.7W 14.6N 79.8W

BAMD 14.7N 73.7W 15.0N 75.2W 15.3N 76.4W 15.5N 77.4W

BAMM 14.7N 73.7W 15.0N 75.4W 15.0N 76.8W 14.9N 78.2W

LBAR 14.7N 73.7W 15.3N 75.1W 16.0N 76.4W 16.5N 77.5W



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

121023 0000 121024 0000 121025 0000 121026 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.0N 81.6W 12.0N 84.0W 10.6N 84.1W 11.1N 81.1W

BAMD 15.8N 78.1W 16.5N 78.8W 19.0N 78.9W 22.1N 79.3W

BAMM 14.8N 79.3W 14.3N 80.8W 14.5N 79.9W 18.5N 75.3W

LBAR 17.1N 78.3W 18.8N 79.5W 20.5N 79.6W 22.3N 78.1W



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 73.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 72.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 70.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


GET A LIFE!


LOL...now that you have told me to get one, I will..I guess family and job dont count..what was I thinking??
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


GET A LIFE!

Technically we all have lives as we are all caring out the functions needed to live or else we wouldn't be able to blog.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That means I'll have to cancel party plans.But a chance of that happening is little.


very little..models will flip back and forth
Quoting wxchaser97:

Technically we all have lives as we are all caring out the functions needed to live or else we wouldn't be able to blog.


ROFL!
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL...now that you have told me to get one, I will..I guess family and job dont count..what was I thinking??


After marriage and kids, my life ended....

Not really, just got a lot more hectic though.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ROFL!

I pay attention in biology even though it isn't weather.
Quoting ncstorm:


very little..models will flip back and forth


Are we still talking about the weather or getting a life?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No excuse. I have 22,154 comments and I've been here since July 2010. ;)

Before anybody asks, yes, I have a life.

Well, that shows you something... I have less than 4000 comments and yet I joined only 3 months after you... Cody, I'm sorry to say, but do u get out much? I mean seriously you have 5x as many comments... You rank 3rd place for most comment by any blogger, and you're relatively new to the blog, as am I, compared to those that joine back in 2004/05
Quoting wxchaser97:

I pay attention in biology even though it isn't weather.


I can tell, that made my day.
Quoting Dakster:


After marriage and kids, my life ended....

Not really, just got a lot more hectic though.


Aw come on. The honeydos much keep you occupied?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Well, that shows you something... I have less than 4000 comments and yet I joined only 3 months after you... Cody, I'm sorry to say, but do u get out much? I mean seriously you have 5x as many comments... You rank 3rd place for most comment by any blogger, and you're relatively new to the blog, as am I, compared to those that joine back in 2004/05


How does he have 3,000 more comments than me, I joined 5 years before he did. That's older than some of the trolls that come on here.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Well, that shows you something... I have less than 4000 comments and yet I joined only 3 months after you... Cody, I'm sorry to say, but do u get out much? I mean seriously you have 5x as many comments... You rank 3rd place for most comment by any blogger, and you're relatively new to the blog, as am I, compared to those that joine back in 2004/05

I go out all the time, lol. I can't help you guys don't blog like I do.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Going to get in the 50's!:) tonight!!

52 up here!!!!!
Quoting Grothar:


Aw come on. The honeydos much keep you occupied?


Yes... And working to try and support them.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Well, that shows you something... I have less than 4000 comments and yet I joined only 3 months after you... Cody, I'm sorry to say, but do u get out much? I mean seriously you have 5x as many comments... You rank 3rd place for most comment by any blogger, and you're relatively new to the blog, as am I, compared to those that joine back in 2004/05

Actually it is pretty easy, even a caveman could do it. All you need to do is post around 50 comments or so everyday and your comments number does go up. That's how I have over 4600 comments even though I only started commenting in July.
The next models should show a better agreement of 99L moving over far eastern Cuba.
Quoting Grothar:
The next models should show a better agreement of 99L moving over far eastern Cuba.


Agreed.
I have almost 5,000 comments and I joined this year. Talk about no life, lol. Seriously though, it's easy to rack up a lot of comments in just one night on here. Half my comments have probably just been posting GFS frames, lol. Still plenty of time to have an outside life.
Quoting Dakster:


After marriage and kids, my life ended....

Not really, just got a lot more hectic though.


tch...tch..
Quoting Grothar:
The next models should show a better agreement of 99L moving over far eastern Cuba.

I agree with that Gro.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I go out all the time, lol. I can't help you guys don't blog like I do.


I hear no one is as fast as you are... Or blogs as much.
Come on guys leave TA alone. He really doesn't blog anymore than the rest of us. At least 20,000 of those entries are the NHC advisories.
667. JRRP


esto me recuerda al huracan Tomas 2010



more or less

Quoting nofailsafe:


I'm really interested in the track on this one. The M storm, can't remember its name dumped a very large moisture field over northern Mexico on its way out. Got a few inches of rain from it.
I think you mean the N storm. Norman was the one.
669. etxwx
Grothar, did you plant this?

In climate puzzle for crops, ancient tree offers clues
By Alister Doyle
FULUFJALLET, Sweden | Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:58am EDT

(Reuters) - On a windswept Swedish mountain, a 10,000-year-old spruce with a claim to be the world's oldest tree is getting a new lease of life thanks to global warming, even as many plants are struggling.

Scientists are finding that the drift of growing areas for many plants out toward the poles is moving not in a smooth progression but in fits and starts, causing problems for farmers aiming to adapt and invest in cash crops that are more sensitive to climate than is this ancient conifer known as "Old Tjikko".

At a range of latitudes, but especially in the far north, climate change is bringing bigger than expected swings, putting billions of dollars at stake in a push to develop varieties with resilience to frost and heatwaves, drought or flood.

More about this here.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I pay attention in biology even though it isn't weather.

I pay attention to World geography more than anything, my teacher is attempting to get me into GIS and a NASA internship for my Tropics knowledge and the fact that I can vividly draw the world by memory in roughly 3 and a half minutes. He is fascinated by my skills in his subject, and the tropics. I showed him my 2, 60 slide, PowerPoints with notes, archives and research. : )
While we're talking about this, I wonder if I rank in the top five for most blog entries from a single person on this site (excluding Masters). 362 and counting. I know for sure Levi outdoes me, but surely I'm in the far upper percentile...
Quoting wxchaser97:

Actually it is pretty easy, even a caveman could do it. All you need to do is post around 50 comments or so everyday and your comments number does go up. That's how I have over 4600 comments even though I only started commenting in July.
OMG you join after me wow.I join last year but I start commenting until March I think.
Quoting Grothar:
Come on guys leave TA alone. He really doesn't blog anymore than the rest of us. At least 20,000 of those entries are the NHC advisories.


LMAO! +10

You guys are great tonight.
Quoting KoritheMan:
While we're talking about this, I wonder if I rank in the top five for most blog entries from a single person on this site (excluding Masters). 362 and counting. I know for sure Levi outdoes me, but surely I'm in the far upper percentile...


I did not know we were running a contest... Did I miss it?
Quoting Grothar:
Come on guys leave TA alone. He really doesn't blog anymore than the rest of us. At least 20,000 of those entries are the NHC advisories.

Honestly, a great deal of them probably are, lol.
Quoting Dakster:


I did not know we were running a contest... Did I miss it?


They might be. I'm not. Just thought it was interesting to note.
Quoting KoritheMan:
While we're talking about this, I wonder if I rank in the top five for most blog entries from a single person on this site (excluding Masters). 362 and counting. I know for sure Levi outdoes me, but surely I'm in the far upper percentile...

Pat has 363. Too bad for you :P
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Pat has 363. Too bad for you :P


Pat outdoes me too, eh? Lovable guy.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Pat has 363. Too bad for you :P

And Taz has 5,088...
TA13 - keep up the blogging. I would rather you do this, then any of the things I catch other teenagers doing on a daily basis....
Quoting Dakster:
TA13 - keep up the blogging. I would rather you do this, then any of the things I catch other teenagers doing on a daily basis....

He isn't the only teenager here, I know what you mean by what some teens do.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Honestly, a great deal of them probably are, lol.

Lol, they are probably.
Quoting etxwx:
Grothar, did you plant this?

In climate puzzle for crops, ancient tree offers clues
By Alister Doyle
FULUFJALLET, Sweden | Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:58am EDT

(Reuters) - On a windswept Swedish mountain, a 10,000-year-old spruce with a claim to be the world's oldest tree is getting a new lease of life thanks to global warming, even as many plants are struggling.

Scientists are finding that the drift of growing areas for many plants out toward the poles is moving not in a smooth progression but in fits and starts, causing problems for farmers aiming to adapt and invest in cash crops that are more sensitive to climate than is this ancient conifer known as "Old Tjikko".

At a range of latitudes, but especially in the far north, climate change is bringing bigger than expected swings, putting billions of dollars at stake in a push to develop varieties with resilience to frost and heatwaves, drought or flood.

More about this here.


Norwegians only go to Sweden if they have to. :)

Actually, Norway and Sweden have been having a very big problem in the past 20 years with all sorts of growing problems with plants and also insects. The snows are very wet in Northern Norway, which is unusual. The seasonal changes have been very eratic and has been a problem for Norway, Finland and Sweden. They have never dealt with a climate change like this and they have been there a looooong time. Interesting article.

There is a special berry which grows in Northern climes, but Sweden has the best in Northern Sweden called lingon. In Norwegian we call them tyttebaerer or here they are known as lingonberries. They grow for a short time and the last few years, the Norwegians have actually been going over to Sweden by helicopter and taking the berries.
Sorry, totally OT, but there's a big swarm of quakes happening in northern Iceland right now; maybe something volcanic is just starting to "getting a life", lol.


Source/Link.
Quoting barbamz:
Sorry, totally OT, but there's a big swarm of quakes happening in northern Iceland right now.


I just noticed that also. Very bizarre. Maybe a sign of volcanic activity to come?
TA, you know we think the world of you. We're just having fun. You always provide good information and analyses for all of us. We all appreciate it. Dang, look at what they do to me on here!!! I hope you know we are just joshing.
Quoting Grothar:
TA, you know we think the world of you. We're just having fun. You always provide good information and analyses for all of us. We all appreciate it. Dang, look at what they do to me on here!!! I hope you know we are just joshing.

Gro, you're last blog remains the funniest thing ever posted on this site.
Quoting barbamz:
Sorry, totally OT, but there's a big swarm of quakes happening in northern Iceland right now; maybe something volcanic is just starting to "getting a life", lol.


Source/Link.


Hey barb, you are probably too young to remember, but back in 1963, a volcano erupted in the ocean right there and became and island in a few weeks. I think it was called Surtsey or something. The only reason I remember it, was it happened the same week as the death of President Kennedy.

A ships captain saw smoke and thought a ship was on fire. When he got there he saw the volcano shooting up from the water. I will have to go look it up.
Quoting Grothar:
TA, you know we think the world of you. We're just having fun. You always provide good information and analyses for all of us. We all appreciate it. Dang, look at what they do to me on here!!! I hope you know we are just joshing.


No we're not. At least I'm not. As soon as he spoke the first insult, 'twas war!
Wax chaser- I know, but I have been teasing him all night, so I had to throw him a compliment.... All of the young weather enthusiasts here are great.

Grothar said it perfect in post 687.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Gro, you're last blog remains the funniest thing ever posted on this site.


So what you are saying is, that all the other funny things I posted over the years, weren't that funny??? :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


No we're not. At least I'm not. As soon as he spoke the first insult, 'twas war!


It's good to see someone with common sense on here! :D
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I just noticed that also. Very bizarre. Maybe a sign of volcanic activity to come?


Maybe; though there are always a lot of quakes in this region, this amount of quakes is unusual. People are reporting the shaking. But it's very deep in the night --- doh, 3.30 am in Germany already. Will take some time to get any reliable news.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No we're not. At least I'm not. As soon as he spoke the first insult, 'twas war!


Who are you kidding, Kori. You would give him your left kidney if he needed it and you know it.
Quoting barbamz:
Sorry, totally OT, but there's a big swarm of quakes happening in northern Iceland right now; maybe something volcanic is just starting to "getting a life", lol.


Source/Link.


Not showing on the USGS map .. what site are you using??

Edit : meant is that a local site ??
Quoting Grothar:


Hey barb, you are probably too young to remember, but back in 1963, a volcano erupted in the ocean right there and became and island in a few weeks. I think it was called Surtsey or something. The only reason I remember it, was it happened the same week as the death of President Kennedy.

A ships captain saw smoke and thought a ship was on fire. When he got there he saw the volcano shooting up from the water. I will have to go look it up.


Weren't you there when the Hawaiian islands formed too?
Quoting Grothar:


So what you are saying is, that all the other funny things I posted over the years, weren't that funny??? :)


What other funny things? ;)
The structure is excellent!
Quoting KoritheMan:


No we're not. At least I'm not. As soon as he spoke the first insult, 'twas war!

Uhm, I'm pretty sure you started the insulting first several months ago, boy.
Wow, it feels nice outside! I think I might go for a race against a Prius. Last time I did it was a pretty close race, but I could only walk so fast.
99-L has even less t-storms...but its surface low is getting even better defined still (near 72.5W-15N)...
Quoting Grothar:


Hey barb, you are probably too young to remember, but back in 1963, a volcano erupted in the ocean right there and became and island in a few weeks. I think it was called Surtsey or something.


I really don't remember by myself, Gro (I was two or three years old back then, lol). But I've read about Surtsey in connection with the El Hierro stuff earlier this year (and this submarine volcano isn't done either, there is still some shaking in this region of the Canaries; I follow it occasionally).
Quoting Dakster:


Weren't you there when the Hawaiian islands formed too?


Only the last one. I'm not that old. But I do remember them being called the Hawaiian Island.
Quoting Grothar:


Who are you kidding, Kori. You would give him your left kidney if he needed it and you know it.


Dammit Gro, stop pointing out my kindness. I'm supposed to appear cold-hearted!
Quoting Dakster:


What other funny things? ;)


Twit!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Uhm, I'm pretty sure you started the insulting first several months ago, boy.


Nuh uh!
99-L needs to do something quick before more comments about racing Prius's....how many comments someone has made...or how old Gro & Patrap are...continue...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nuh uh!

Hey, hey ,hey, lets not fight here:)

Quoting KoritheMan:


Dammit Gro, stop pointing out my kindness. I'm supposed to appear cold-hearted!

Kori being cold-hearted, lol.
Quoting Grothar:


Only the last one. I'm not that old. But I do remember them being called the Hawaiian Island.


That's right Floodman was around when the dirt was new and Dino's roamed earth, you showed up after that. Sorry I get you two confused sometimes. You know how all old people look alike.
Quoting barbamz:


I really don't remember by myself, Gro (I was two or three years old back then, lol). But I've read about Surtsey in connection with the El Hierro stuff earlier this year (and this submarine volcano isn't done either, there is still some shaking in this region of the Canaries; I follow it occasionally).


Well, I am not going to say how old I was at the time, but it is a vague memory. :) We had been living in Iceland for just a short while before that in 1961.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nuh uh!

Such a kid..
Quoting reedzone:
The structure is excellent!

Convection will increase tomorrow and I think we should have a TD in 24-36hrs.
Quoting reedzone:
The structure is excellent!

Damn. This is gonna be a beast.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
99-L needs to do something quick before more comments about racing Prius's....how many comments someone has made...or how old Gro & Patrap are...continue...


We're just filling in the time until the 11 PM comes out, which I am sure TA will post first. Look at it like a stage act. Before the star performer comes out, all these wannabe comedians have a lead in. It is almost a tradition now. We do the comedy relief until the action starts and then we go into "STORM MODE" and get serious.
Quoting Grothar:


We're just filling in the time until the 11 PM comes out, which I am sure TA will post first. Look at it like a stage act. Before the star performer comes out, all these wannabe comedians have a lead in. It is almost a tradition now. We do the comedy relief until the action starts and then we go into "STORM MODE" and get serious.


Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wow, it feels nice outside! I think I might go for a race against a Prius. Last time I did it was a pretty close race, but I could only walk so fast.


I have always wanted to time one in the quarter mile, can you give me a minute so I can get my calendar.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Such a kid..

Remember you are younger than he is, respect your elders, even though he can act like that...

I am currently working on a blog about 99L and 90L and I will have it out sometime tonight.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Remember you are younger than he is, respect your elders, even though he can act like that...
Taught you respect, have I?
Quoting reedzone:
The structure is excellent!


It is beginning to get that round look to it. Not much convection but looking good.
Quoting Grothar:


We're just filling in the time until the 11 PM comes out, which I am sure TA will post first. Look at it like a stage act. Before the star performer comes out, all these wannabe comedians have a lead in. It is almost a tradition now. We do the comedy relief until the action starts and then we go into "STORM MODE" and get serious.

Yo Gro, there aren't any active storms so I don't think there will be much to post at 11pm.
Quoting Grothar:


We're just filling in the time until the 11 PM comes out, which I am sure TA will post first. Look at it like a stage act. Before the star performer comes out, all these wannabe comedians have a lead in. It is almost a tradition now. We do the comedy relief until the action starts and then we go into "STORM MODE" and get serious.

I was just kidding....

And by the way...I've done just over 3000 comments and 236 blog entries since I started in Sept 2009....not sure what that makes me.....
Quoting Grothar:


It is beginning to get that round look to it. Not much convection but looking good.


We have all heard that before.... And then *poof*.....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Did that heavy rain event move over your area as well yesterday?.It was raining cats and dogs for a few minutes and then it went to moderate rain.

Yes, we got the whole shebang- rain, wind, and thunder. There was a tiny little shower earlier tonight but we could not have ordered a nicer day otherwise.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Taught you respect, have I?

You have taught me the opposite, jk. I have respect for people when it is due.
Aha, just as I thought.

I've only got 360-something comments..... 3 jobs and full time school takes my life away.... :/
I need a storm to cancel school for a bit. I need a break..
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I was just kidding....

And by the way...I've done just over 3000 comments and 236 blog entries since I started in Sept 2009....not sure what that makes me.....


Oh, I know. just kidding back. The last time I can remember getting mad at anything was back in 1980 when they told me they weren't making bellbottom pants anymore.
Quoting thunderbug91:
I've only got 360-something comments..... 3 jobs and full time school takes my life away.... :/
I need a storm to cancel school for a bit. I need a break..


If you are living in Jamaica or Cuba you may be in luck.
More models agreeing on intensity potential.

Quoting Grothar:
Aha, just as I thought.



Ok. I'll bite. What did you think?
The next 3 names on the list: Sandy, Tony, and Valerie all end in the long -e sound.
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, I know. just kidding back. The last time I can remember getting mad at anything was back in 1980 when they told me they weren't making bellbottom pants anymore.

And I didn't exist till 7 years after that...
Quoting Grothar:
Aha, just as I thought.


Yup, that is pretty close to where an area of jet fuel is. I pretty much agree with a track around that area currently. Hopefully there will be some shear that prevents this from really taking off. Right now I think a cat1 is likely for peak sometime in its life. That is my one moment of being serious for the hour.
I think I will go horizontal soon. Have fun boys and girls.

Quoting Grothar:
I think I will go horizontal soon. Have fun boys and girls.



Me too. Good night everyone.
Quoting Dakster:


Ok. I'll bite. What did you think?



I wrote a few hours ago that the new models would probably show 99L moving over the far eastern end of Cuba. A few people agreed.
If we get Sandy....this will be the 1st time I believe the Atlantic has had four consecutive years where we reach the 'S' storm. In other words...this would be the first time I know of that the Atlantic four years in a row produces 18 tropical storms each year (letter Q is skipped)...unbelievable!

I think part of this though is because storms like Patty or Oscar would have not been caught before the satellite era...and storms like Jose 2011 or Jerry 2007 would have not been classified before...
Quoting Grothar:



I wrote a few hours ago that the new models would probably show 99L moving over the far eastern end of Cuba. A few people agreed.


Ok. I missed that... Thx.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

And I didn't exist till 7 years after that...


Ah, kids.
99L:

Quoting Grothar:
More models agreeing on intensity potential.




So ALL these models show 99L becoming a TS.

Or am I missing something?

Thanks Gro!
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, kids.
Grothar what do you think 99L could take a track similar to this storm or too far west?

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
If we get Sandy....this will be the 1st time I believe the Atlantic has had four consecutive years where we reach the 'S' storm. In other words...this would be the first time I know of that the Atlantic four years in a row produces 18 tropical storms each year (letter Q is skipped)...unbelievable!

I think part of this though is because storms like Patty or Oscar would have not been caught before the satellite era...and storms like Jose 2011 or Jerry 2007 would have not been classified before...


It would have to be 3 consecutive, 2009 had like 9 or 10 storms only.

'10 = Tomas
'11 = Sean (19th)
'12 = Possibly 99L

No hate, just bringing love.
Quoting Civicane49:
99L:


Look at the spin!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Look at the spin!


It is well-defined.
753. 7544
hmm looks like we could 91L soon in the atl.

99l will be mystery strom for now on where it will go imo

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Grothar what do you think 99L could take a track similar to this storm or too far west?

Well, 99L is a bit further north than the 1932 hurricane was. But it's possible I suppose.
Quoting HurrAndrew:


It would have to be 3 consecutive, 2009 had like 9 or 10 storms only.

'10 = Tomas
'11 = Sean (19th)
'12 = Possibly 99L

No hate, just bringing love.

LOL...I can't believe I screwed up like that...thx for correcting!
Should have a TD tomorrow morning or afternoon at the latest. 99L is becoming pretty defined, and when Dmax comes around our invest should put up significant convection to make a case at classification.
18Z GFS ensemble spread








Have a good night!
Quoting Slamguitar:
Should have a TD tomorrow morning or afternoon at the latest. 99L is becoming pretty defined, and when Dmin comes around our invest should put up significant convection to make a case at classification.

I am going to go with 24hrs(11pm tomorrow) for classification. The NHC would want convection to persist for a little while before classifying 99L as a TD. More convection is all it needs as it already has a great structure and circulation.

Not to be mean, it is DMAX that increases convection and DMIN decreases it.
EDIT: I see you already corrected it so nevermind.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I am going to go with 24hrs(11pm tomorrow) for classification. The NHC would want convection to persist for a little while before classifying 99L as a TD. More convection is all it needs as it already has a great structure and circulation.

Not to be mean, it is DMAX that increases convection and DMIN decreases it.
EDIT: I see you already corrected it.


I literally got no sleep last night, so I'm glad these are relatively coherent sentences.

You do have a point though. Significant convection will start to take place at Dmax and will have to persist at least into the afternoon/evening. I'll go with 5pm.
99-L....in da house...
90-L....in da house...
We need stewart at the NHC tonight so we can raise the roof!
Quoting Slamguitar:


I literally got no sleep last night, so I'm glad these are relatively coherent sentences.

You do have a point though. Significant convection will start to take place at Dmax and will have to persist at least into the afternoon/evening. I'll go with 5pm.

You're not the only one who got little sleep last night. I took a nap today, don't make fun of that, so I'm well rested for tonight. I am pretty sure we should see classification tomorrow and Monday morning at the very latest.
99L:



90L:

Quoting wxchaser97:

You're not the only one who got little sleep last night. I took a nap today, don't make fun of that, so I'm well rested for tonight. I am pretty sure we should see classification tomorrow and Monday morning at the very latest.

Why y'all not sleepin'? I got plenty last night...but I was exhausted from work last week...
Quoting KoritheMan:

Well, 99L is a bit further north than the 1932 hurricane was. But it's possible I suppose.
That was a bad one here Kori.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Why y'all not sleepin'? I got plenty last night...but I was exhausted from work last week...

Because uh... I am a night owl who likes to stay up late. I still get sleep on weekdays and do fine in school so I'm good. I am exhausted from blogging too much, now that is something that really takes a lot of energy out of ya.
99L has a closed circulation now, all that is needed is convection, which will happen during DMAX...

My Proof
Disable the first 7 frames of the Loop, by clicking on them, and then speed up the loop to full speed. Obvious closed circulation.
Quoting Slamguitar:


I literally got no sleep last night, so I'm glad these are relatively coherent sentences.

You do have a point though. Significant convection will start to take place at Dmax and will have to persist at least into the afternoon/evening. I'll go with 5pm.


Quoting NCHurricane2009:
99-L....in da house...
90-L....in da house...
We need stewart at the NHC tonight so we can raise the roof!

Yes...yes...we also need DJ DMAX to make this a parrrtaeee!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
99-L has even less t-storms...but its surface low is getting even better defined still (near 72.5W-15N)...

Popcorn convection is now beginning to show up, it will have full convection again in about 3 hours.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Just got this one in my email.

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==
Region: ICELAND REGIONGeographic coordinates: 66.329N, 18.751W
Magnitude: 5.6 Mwp
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 21 Oct 2012 01:25:23
Time near the Epicenter: 21 Oct 2012 01:25:23
Local standard time in your area: 21 Oct 2012 01:25:23
Location with respect to nearby cities:

78 km (49 miles) NNW (337 degrees) of Akureyri, Iceland

201 km (125 miles) E (82 degrees) of Isafjordur, Iceland

264 km (164 miles) WNW (302 degrees) of Neskaupstadur, Iceland 285 km (177 miles) NNE (30 degrees) of REYKJAVIK, Iceland

Does Mwp mean Multi wave pulse?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
99L has a closed circulation now, all that is needed is convection, which will happen during DMAX...

My Proof
Disable the first 7 frames of the Loop, by clicking on them, and then speed up the loop to full speed. Obvious closed circulation.

It has a great cloud pattern and circulation when you look at that. It does look to be closed and the next ASCAT pass will confirm or bust that. I see convection slowly firing and it is possible that 99L becomes a TD before 24hrs.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Popcorn convection is now beginning to show up, it will have full convection again in about 3 hours.

Can I get a what what? Oh yeaahhhhhh! Some of y'all think I lost my mind...but we just getting started tonight!
Quoting Grothar:


OK, what type of accent do I have then?


I hate arriving to the party late, but is this your accent?

Quoting Grothar:
More models agreeing on intensity potential.


All In agreement of a High-End Tropical Storm, or a category 1 hurricane.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Can I get a what what? Oh yeaahhhhhh! Some of y'all think I lost my mind...but we just getting started tonight!

You've definitely lost your mind.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Why y'all not sleepin'? I got plenty last night...but I was exhausted from work last week...


Too much to do. Essays, midterms, research, job, cleaning my place, things to fix. Add that with being an insomniac and you get no sleep, but I should be able to squeeze in a few hours tonight.

Quoting Slamguitar:


Too much to do. Essays, midterms, research, job, cleaning my place, things to fix. Add that with being an insomniac and you get no sleep, but I should be able to squeeze in a few hours tonight.
I went to work with an hour and a half of sleep yesterday. Have to wake up at 9:30 tomorrow. Not sure how much sleep I'll have, but oh well.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I went to work with an hour and a half of sleep yesterday. Have to wake up at 9:30 tomorrow. Not sure how much sleep I'll have, but oh well.


Eh, we're young. We can do it. ;)
Quoting Slamguitar:


Too much to do. Essays, midterms, research, job, cleaning my place, things to fix. Add that with being an insomniac and you get no sleep, but I should be able to squeeze in a few hours tonight.

Hang in their...I was like that a year and a half ago...but it pays off in the end....
Quoting wxchaser97:

He isn't the only teenager here, I know what you mean by what some teens do.

Lol, they are probably.

Including me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You've definitely lost your mind.

Did he have one in the 1st place, can't lose what you don't have. LOL
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Including me.

Me too, I have found out there are more teens on here than I thought there would be.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

All In agreement of a High-End Tropical Storm, or a category 1 hurricane.

I forecast a system in that intensity range.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Me too.


I forecast a system in that intensity range.

80 Mph Category 1 landfall is a reasonable forecast.
00z Surface Analysis.

Right now...99-L is probably listening to this tune...specifically the beat from 0:00 to 1:43

But once DMAX picks up...the beat is going to be more like from 1:43 and onwards...
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Just got this one in my email.

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==
Region: ICELAND REGIONGeographic coordinates: 66.329N, 18.751W
Magnitude: 5.6 Mwp
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 21 Oct 2012 01:25:23
Time near the Epicenter: 21 Oct 2012 01:25:23
Local standard time in your area: 21 Oct 2012 01:25:23
Location with respect to nearby cities:

78 km (49 miles) NNW (337 degrees) of Akureyri, Iceland

201 km (125 miles) E (82 degrees) of Isafjordur, Iceland

264 km (164 miles) WNW (302 degrees) of Neskaupstadur, Iceland 285 km (177 miles) NNE (30 degrees) of REYKJAVIK, Iceland

Does Mwp mean Multi wave pulse?
not sure what it means but somethings going on thats fer sure
they are showing up on the big globe as well

Phew.

Tropical Cyclone Report: Tropical Storm Aletta (EP012012)

Doing all East Pacific storms first as the season there is *considers biting tongue* probably near its end.
Back on a serious note, 99L is doing fair in structure, but it is doing terrible in convection. This doesn't come as much of a surprise, as we saw the convergence was bare minimal going into DMAX. Developing systems almost always go through the stage were convection is just pathetic looking the day they're declared invests, and the next day. This is going to be a very gradual development, incremental. But it will probably become Tropical Storm Sandy (or Tony, depending on 90L)


90L is starting to resemble a sub-tropical system instead of a tropical one. This is thanks to the ULL you can see itself occluding with.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Back on a serious note, 99L is doing fair in structure, but it is doing terrible in convection. This doesn't come as much of a surprise, as we saw the convergence was bare minimal going into DMAX. Developing systems almost always go through the stage were convection is just pathetic looking the day they're declared invests, and the next day. This is going to be a very gradual development, incremental. But it will probably become Tropical Storm Sandy (or Tony, depending on 90L)


90L is starting to resemble a sub-tropical system instead of a tropical one. This is thanks to the ULL you can see itself occluding with.

I agree 90L is more subtropical than tropical...
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did he have one in the 1st place, can't lose what you don't have. LOL

Ouch...your humor hits like a dagger...


poss event detected
Speaking of subtropical cyclones...is the Atlantic most prolific in this type of hybrid system?
Awesome structure, not so awesome convection.

90L:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Awesome structure, not so awesome convection.



Yep. 99L has a well-organized structure but lacks deep convection.
Quoting Civicane49:


Yep. 99L has a well-organized structure but lacks deep convection.

99L...the invisi-swirl...
event detected on going

Quoting Civicane49:


Yep. 99L has a well-organized structure but lacks deep convection.

DMAX in a few hours should cause convection to increase. 99L seems to have a closed circulation, and recon is investigating tomorrow afternoon, so I wouldn't be surprised if this was declared a TD or TS at 5pm EDT.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

DMAX in a few hours should cause convection to increase. 90L seems to have a closed circulation, and recon is investigating tomorrow afternoon, so I wouldn't be surprised if this was declared a TD or TS at 5pm EDT.

Recon is investigating 90L or 99L?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Recon is investigating 90L or 99L?


99L.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Recon is investigating 90L or 99L?

99L, I corrected my post.
For those who missed it earlier, I did a blog update on the tropics.
For the moment...ex-Rafael has more convection than 99L:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/avn-l.jpg
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
For the moment...ex-Rafael has more convection than 99L:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/avn-l.jpg

Only for the moment, 99L will increase it's convection.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Recon is investigating 90L or 99L?

99L tomorrow and they could find a TD.
What time in the afternoon are they sending the HH out?
Quoting wxchaser97:

Only for the moment, 99L will increase it's convection.


99L tomorrow and they could find a TD.

I say they call 99L, TD 18 tomorrow at 5 pm advisory.
Quoting Slamguitar:
What time in the afternoon are they sending the HH out?

18z (2:00 p.m. EDT).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

18z (2:00 p.m. EDT).


Thanks!

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I say they call 99L, TD 18 tomorrow at 5 pm advisory.


You and me both. ;)
00z gfs 12hr to 144

Quoting Slamguitar:


Thanks!



You and me both. ;)

Scratch that.

Tomorrow at 21:00Z (5:00 p.m. EDT).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Scratch that.

Tomorrow at 21:00Z (5:00 p.m. EDT).


Well, that works less to the favor of my 5pm TD classification prediction.
Anyone have any luck with the meteor shower tonight? I got home from work just before 2am, collected my daughter and camera, as was actually clear from once here....but only saw a handful over an hour and a half. They were pretty long ones, but was really hoping for a good display being the other ones this year have been cloudy here! None of them happen in frame of camera either doh! LOL Ah well, she was happy with the few bigger ones we saw at least!
You've all been teasing with the forecast maps all week...be interesting to see if it does anything like the ones that were way to far ahead to take serious! Hope nothing too bad for them islands though.
108 hr

Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:
Anyone have any luck with the meteor shower tonight? I got home from work just before 2am, collected my daughter and camera, as was actually clear from once here....but only saw a handful over an hour and a half. They were pretty long ones, but was really hoping for a good display being the other ones this year have been cloudy here! None of them happen in frame of camera either doh! LOL Ah well, she was happy with the few bigger ones we saw at least!

No stars falling on Alabama so far either. It's still a few hours until the theoretical maximum but I saw one in the past hour, so it's not looking hopeful.
hr 120

Well, the DMIN sure killed off all the convection in 99L. If something doesn't start to break loose by tomorrow morning, there's not going to be much for the HH's to look at. I'm probably wrong, but I just don't have much faith in 99L. This area has been a storm graveyard this year, and I think it will continue. We'll see come sunrise.
hr 132

Quoting sar2401:
Well, the DMIN sure killed off all the convection in 99L. If something doesn't start to break loose by tomorrow morning, there's not going to be much for the HH's to look at. I'm probably wrong, but I just don't have much faith in 99L. This area has been a storm graveyard this year, and I think it will continue. We'll see come sunrise.


Patience, the Eastern Caribbean is a graveyard, but Isaac and Ernesto were two totally different ballgames. This one is going to stall out over an area of very high TCHP. Even the UKMET is saying intensification, which is saying something.
Quoting sunlinepr:

Something appears to be seriously wrong with the NHC enhanced infrared. Not only is it missing a lot of frames, but it's showing what appears to a mass of convection that doesn't exist on any of the other satellite photos I've looked at.
Looking at the shortwave Ir post (826), it appears 99L is close to the 84 hrs GFS and moving west at a decent clip. So would seem to invalidate that run to me.
hr 144 final

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Ouch...your humor hits like a dagger...

I was thinking more like a cricket bat. Just joking.

A lot of moisture in the Carib right now all associated with 99L but it need to consolidate.


Almost looks like a stall, won't be good news for S. Fl. if 1 more degree to the west.
0z GFS at 144 hrs. has a hurricane in the Bahamas.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Patience, the Eastern Caribbean is a graveyard, but Isaac and Ernesto were two totally different ballgames. This one is going to stall out over an area of very high TCHP. Even the UKMET is saying intensification, which is saying something.

Yeah, yeah, the old "rocket fuel" theory. :) Isaac and Ernesto spent plenty of time over waters with at least as high in TCHP numbers as 99L and not much came of it in terms of intensity. I really do think that years develop patterns. In 2005, anything that even looked like a low turned into a TC. This year, we can't get much going, even with the conditions supposedly as good as we had in 2005. We certainly don't understand all the conditions needed for TC development, and something is happening this year that's really unusual.
843. 7544
hmm gfs has really shifted west now almost same aqs the cmc could this be fl trick or treat strom afterall getting interesting maybe tom. it will have fl as the bulls eye
Quoting AussieStorm:

I was thinking more like a cricket bat. Just joking.

A lot of moisture in the Carib right now all associated with 99L but it need to consolidate.



The front pushing into the Gulf has lots of dry air with it. Our low humidity in central Alabama today was 19%, which is an amazingly low number for us. There's also another slug of dry air approaching from the central Atlantic. All this dry air is going to be a major inhibiting factor in getting convection restarted in 99L. Depending on how long it wanders in the eastern Caribbean, the dry air will either kill it off or push whaterever does form towards Central America. I don't think the models are doing a good job of dealing with these dry air masses.
While this is 180hrs out, I want to point out what is going on here. We had a hurricane come close to FL before being pushed off to the west some. The trough comes down into the Great Lakes providing cold air, I get a couple inches of snow from this. We then get Sandy(or her extra-tropical part), another low just to the north, and the low over the Great Lakes sorta connected together when you look at the isobars.

This isn't the first run to show snow in SE MI.
Quoting sar2401:

Yeah, yeah, the old "rocket fuel" theory. :) Isaac and Ernesto spent plenty of time over waters with at least as high in TCHP numbers as 99L and not much came of it in terms of intensity. I really do think that years develop patterns. In 2005, anything that even looked like a low turned into a TC. This year, we can't get much going, even with the conditions supposedly as good as we had in 2005. We certainly don't understand all the conditions needed for TC development, and something is happening this year that's really unusual.
Hi Sar long time no see, how have you been? I think you might have a point when it comes to not understanding all of the conditions that are needed to make a TC bomb out. Vertical Instability throughout the season and for that matter even last year have been below normal.
Quoting wxchaser97:
While this is 180hrs out, I want to point out what is going on here. We had a hurricane come close to FL before being pushed off to the west some. The trough comes down into the Great Lakes providing cold air, I get a couple inches of snow from this. We then get Sandy(or her extra-tropical part), another low just to the north, and the low over the Great Lakes sorta connected together when you look at the isobars.

This isn't the first run to show snow in SE MI.


Not going to get my hopes up, but some nice huge LES flakes floating down with no wind and temps just below freezing would REALLY hit the spot for me. I'm definitely ready for winter now.
Quoting sar2401:

Yeah, yeah, the old "rocket fuel" theory. :) Isaac and Ernesto spent plenty of time over waters with at least as high in TCHP numbers as 99L and not much came of it in terms of intensity. I really do think that years develop patterns. In 2005, anything that even looked like a low turned into a TC. This year, we can't get much going, even with the conditions supposedly as good as we had in 2005. We certainly don't understand all the conditions needed for TC development, and something is happening this year that's really unusual.


Ernesto was a big storm, and it may have intensified in time. However, Ernesto did "benefit" from the warm waters in terms of total energy transfer. Also, recall that the warm temps were surface temps only.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hi Sar long time no see, how have you been? I think you might have a point when it comes to not understanding all of the conditions that are needed to make a TC bomb out. Vertical Instability throughout the season and for that matter even last year have been below normal.


Last year Major Hurricane Rina underwent rapid intensification with instability around the same as this year. I'm not saying 99L will bomb out but it won't remain weak. We still have lots to learn about hurricanes/Tropical storms and how they form.

I have finished my forecast graphic that will go into my blog. It now includes a threat level category to go along with the rating scale. The track shown for 99L is not certain. My probability chances for 99L are 80% and 90L is at 40%, I will have the blog out soon.
Quoting wxchaser97:


Last year Major Hurricane Rina underwent rapid intensification with instability around the same as this year. I'm not saying 99L will bomb out but it won't remain weak. We still have lots to learn about hurricanes/Tropical storms and how they form.

Thanks for posting that chart, I was looking for it through my bookmarks, but couldn't find it. Oh no I'm not saying 99L won't rapidly intensify or that it will just go kaput. For now I'll play it conservative like the rest of you and call for a strong TS/minimal hurricane, until I see how the storm interacts with the front and if shear impinges on it.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks for posting that chart, I was looking for it through my bookmarks, but couldn't find it. Oh no I'm not saying 99L won't rapidly intensify or that it will just go kaput. For now I'll play it conservative like the rest of you and call for a strong TS/minimal hurricane, until I see how the storm interacts with the front and if shear impinges on it.


Here is the website just in case you can't find it, Link. If shear doesn't hinder intensification then this could get higher than a category 1 hurricane. The latest GFS is interesting with bringing 99L closer to Fl, like the CMC. It will be an interesting week no matter what.
Well I'm going to call it a night. I have to be up early in the morning as I will be volunteering at the Bucs game. Have a good night everyone.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well I'm going to call it a night. I have to be up early in the morning as I will be volunteering at the Bucs game. Have a good night everyone.

Good night GT, hopefully the weather is good where you are.
Quoting Slamguitar:


Not going to get my hopes up, but some nice huge LES flakes floating down with no wind and temps just below freezing would REALLY hit the spot for me. I'm definitely ready for winter now.

I'm ready for winter and I'm not getting my hopes up either. However there was a run, a day or so ago I think, that had 5-6" over me.
Weather.com says rain/snow showers on the 29th for me. That would be a treat for Halloween for me.
Mon
Oct 29 Rain / Snow Showers 48°/36° 60 %
Quoting wxchaser97:
Weather.com says rain/snow showers on the 29th for me. That would be a treat for Halloween for me.
Mon
Oct 29 Rain / Snow Showers 48°/36° 60 %


They give me a little wet and fluffy mix as well.

Oct 29 Rain/Snow Showers 46°/31° 60% Rain
Quoting Slamguitar:


They give me a little wet and fluffy mix as well.

Oct 29 Rain/Snow Showers 46°/31° 60% Rain

It is good to know someone is still up. Me and Kori have switched positions tonight as he got his entry out early while mine is coming out really late. I am working as hard and fast as I can to finish it and my brain will likely be fried afterward.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
99L has a closed circulation now, all that is needed is convection, which will happen during DMAX...

My Proof
Disable the first 7 frames of the Loop, by clicking on them, and then speed up the loop to full speed. Obvious closed circulation.
Surface circulation doesn't appear closed yet. The RGB loop switches back to IR in the night, so you're seeing mid level cloud features. Based off shortwave infrared it appears like the circulation is still open, though we will have to wait for visible images or an ASCAT pass to confirm this.
00z GFS waits until 99L is clear of the Caribbean before bombing it out. I mentioned earlier it was unlikely that we'd see 99L significantly intensify in the Caribbean as a result of the unfavorable upper level environment.
No change in 99L or 90L in percentage. 60% and 30% respectively.

99L remains at 60% and 90L remains at 30%, phew that makes things easy for me.
Windsat & ASCAT completely missed 99L, OSCAT pretty much too.
Quoting TomTaylor:
00z GFS waits until 99L is clear of the Caribbean before bombing it out. I mentioned earlier it was unlikely that we'd see 99L significantly intensify in the Caribbean as a result of the unfavorable upper level environment.

It also takes it closer to the US than it has been. There are still many uncertainties with 99L that have to be worked out. Right now I am thinking we should see a cat1 from 99L.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I have finished my forecast graphic that will go into my blog. It now includes a threat level category to go along with the rating scale. The track shown for 99L is not certain. My probability chances for 99L are 80% and 90L is at 40%, I will have the blog out soon.
low threat to Nicaragua and Honduras is that thing could really affect us ? I doubt. but you are more expert than me.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, being German I should. :) Even though I was born in the US, English is really my third language. We were raised mostly in Europe.


That's weird, I thought I remember you saying you were Norwegian, I don't know where I got that idea from then, lol.
Quoting allancalderini:
low threat to Nicaragua and Honduras is that thing could really affect us ? I doubt. but you are more expert than me.

I doubt 99L will impact you guys. I have a low threat due to some ensemble members and other non-global models taking 99L near Central America. I don't think that is likely at all but I have done that for the sake of covering everything.
Thunderstorm activity increases to the northeast of 99L's center.

For anyone who is awake, I finally finished my blog update on 99L and 90L. This is my most detailed and longest blog entry I have wrote yet. Good night/morning everyone!
scary!!!!

5.3 quake
Date-Time
Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 06:55:09 UTC
Saturday, October 20, 2012 at 11:55:09 PM at epicenter
Location
36.311°N, 120.856°W
Depth
9.4 km (5.8 miles)
Region
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
scary!!!!

5.3 quake
Date-Time
Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 06:55:09 UTC
Saturday, October 20, 2012 at 11:55:09 PM at epicenter
Location
36.311%uFFFDN, 120.856%uFFFDW
Depth
9.4 km (5.8 miles)
Region
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances
I felt some very light shaking here in Santa Barbara. I happened to be leaning back in my chair and noticed I rocked a little bit. At first I thought it was just me and I wasn't paying attention because I was tired. But then I noticed the door in my room was lightly rattling against the door frame.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Just felt some very light shaking here in Santa Barbara. Noticed it with door lightly rattling against the door frame.


just that!?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


just that!?
edited my post a bit to expand on it. But yeah, that's about it. The door rattle lasted only maybe 5-10 seconds. I'm honestly surprised I felt anything at all. My campus is about 120 miles away from the earthquake's location so it is pretty remarkable that I felt it this far away considering it was only a 5.3 earthquake.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
scary!!!!

5.3 quake
Date-Time
Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 06:55:09 UTC
Saturday, October 20, 2012 at 11:55:09 PM at epicenter
Location
36.311°N, 120.856°W
Depth
9.4 km (5.8 miles)
Region
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances

Wake up L.A and San Fran.
Quoting TomTaylor:
edited my post a bit to expand on it. But yeah, that's about it. The door rattle lasted only maybe 5-10 seconds. I'm honestly surprised I felt anything at all. My campus is about 120 miles away from the earthquake's location so it is pretty remarkable that I felt it this far away considering it was only a 5.3 earthquake.


ohh ok.
Check out this fiery red sky here tonight. It was very beautiful

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Right now...99-L is probably listening to this tune...specifically the beat from 0:00 to 1:43

But once DMAX picks up...the beat is going to be more like from 1:43 and onwards...


Oh...it would be rather this:

Link
7-day for Tampa Bay area
Good morning. 99L was beaten down hard from a convective standpoint last night, but it retained a very good structure and convection is starting to bounce back, especially on its east side:

The 0z CMC brought it very close to S FL:



It later brings it to the Mid Atlantic as an extremely powerful storm system, 954mb:



The UKMET is beginning to show more development:

Quoting wxchaser97:

I doubt 99L will impact you guys. I have a low threat due to some ensemble members and other non-global models taking 99L near Central America. I don't think that is likely at all but I have done that for the sake of covering everything.


Hello, greetings!
I have lived in Costa Rica my whole life, and I know what these systems down Jamaica do to us when they form in October in terms of rain. Costa Rica has very high mountains ( highest is 3820Mts above sea level), and the moisture that gets pulled from our South,Central, and North Pacific coasts
to the core of the system produces heavy rainfall in the Pacific Region, though amazingly fair weather in caribbean Costa Rica ( unless the system gets too close). I know what you mean by low threat, maybe as to winds.

Tomas killed many people in our country. So I would not say it is not going to impact Central America, at least wet Costa Rica.

I just wanted to point out how broad the idea of "impact" may be.
By the way,we are getting some rain right now.. not sure is from possible future Sandy yet. The good thing this time is that it seems that the models are taking this system of out of the Caribbean rather quickly.



Cerro Chirrpo is Costa Rica's highest point, standing tall at an elevation of 12,526 feet (3,818 m).
Goog morning
I invite you to my blog about the weather in Cuba
http://consultorageomet.blogspot.com/
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 0z CMC brought it very close to S FL:



It later brings it to the Mid Atlantic as an extremely powerful storm system, 954mb:



The UKMET is beginning to show more development:


uggh
Good morning.

I think this afternoon's mission will be canceled due to lack of convection.
If 90L forms, it will take a track similar to that of Hurricane Otto from 2010.
Miami NWS Disco

EXTENDED PERIOD...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE...
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES WEDNESDAY...WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EAST
-WARD TO THE ATLC COAST BY SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES NE...A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO MOVE
NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE ATLC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER S FLA WHICH WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THAT MAY BECOME WINDY EASTERN
ZONES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. POPS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
99L up to 70%...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

I think this afternoon's mission will be canceled due to lack of convection.
Good morning. Should still be a go. Chances have increased to 70%.
890. T3b0w
how many named storm days does 2012 have so far and what is the average
Quoting T3b0w:
how many named storm days does 2012 have so far and what is the average

2012 has had 17 named storms.
You can find more info here.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

I think this afternoon's mission will be canceled due to lack of convection.

If it does go ahead, it could be useful data for the models.
12z Best Track for 99L.

AL, 99, 2012102112, , BEST, 0, 147N, 755W, 25, 1006, DB
It going to get cold in FL
TALLAHASSEE FL

WPB!!
12z Best Track for 90L.

AL, 90, 2012102112, , BEST, 0, 192N, 497W, 25, 1012, DB
Morning everyone! We now have very strong model support for 99L developing into a strong tropical storm. The 00z European run took 99L all the way down to 999 mb in the Caribbean, but for some strange reason it still wants to turn it into a trough like system once it leaves the Caribbean. The GFS has dropped that idea, and now shows 99L becoming a 987mb hurricane or TS in the Bahamas. The CMC blew this up to a powerful hurricane, no surprise, but has it getting pretty close to Florida unlike the GFS. Even the UKMET is aggressive with 99L once it leaves Cuba, which is impressive.
Perfect radiational cooling conditions last night! Low of 52 with a forecast high of 86 lol...

last night got to 59!! and a High of 84F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Perfect radiational cooling conditions last night! Low of 52 with a forecast high of 86 lol...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 0z CMC brought it very close to S FL:



It later brings it to the Mid Atlantic as an extremely powerful storm system, 954mb:



The UKMET is beginning to show more development:

The CMC knows I was making fun of it.So now it sends me Sandy to show who's boss.lol.
Just updated...

Good morning guys.

The fact that all of the global models, with the exception of the ECMWF, blow this up into at least a Category 1 hurricane as it exits the coast of Cuba shows the favorable upper-air environment 99L will have throughout most of its lifespan. As the trough first sags south and draws 99L northward, there may be some wind shear, but I highly doubt it will be intense enough to cause substantial weakening. After 99L clears Cuba, the consensus seems to be for quick intensification into a hurricane within the Bahamas by 144 hours out (6 days). I doubt 99L, or Sandy by the time, makes a direct impact on the state of Florida, although heavy rainfall and gusty winds are now definitely possible for the eastern portion of the state. A strong trough of low pressure should save the Carolinas from a landfall as well, although again, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are a possibility.

0z GFS 144 hours:



0z UKMET 120 hours:



0z CMC 144 hours:

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just updated...

can anyone explain the time of each point location on the graph line of this model plot? (ie each 12hr= new point)
No hurricane Hazel part two please.Party plans would have to be thrown out the window.
By the way, here is my newly-completed Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm Aletta if anybody missed it and/or is interested.

Tropical Cyclone Report: Tropical Storm Aletta (EP012012)

I'll be back later.
Quoting T3b0w:
how many named storm days does 2012 have so far and what is the average


17, the average is 10 (1950 - 2000)
Quoting unknowncomic:
can anyone explain the time of each point location on the graph line of this model plot? (ie each 12hr= new point)

Correct
I don't know why they even bother with the clp or lbar plot. They always seem to be wrong.
I have 0 faith in model tracks untill they at least have a closed circ to lock onto or a TD would be better. Untill its closed there are just to many varibles.
Well on the bright side I've done my holloween candy shopping.Got enough bags to last until christmas(Well I use the bags that I don't open and save them until chritmas comes around so I can use it to put in stockings and such).So in case cmc is right(which I v ery highly doubt) me and the fam can feast!.
Crown Weather not ruling out a South Florida threat.

So, here are my thoughts:
As I have really mentioned, I do think that 99L will be named Sandy by Tuesday at the very latest and a track north-northeastward right across Jamaica as a moderately strong tropical storm seems likely right now. The timeframe for this would be Wednesday evening. From there, Sandy may turn more northward and it “feels” the trough of low pressure to its west and starts to get captured by that trough. This means a track across the central/northwestern Bahamas is possible from near the southern end of Andros Island to right across Great Abaco Island on Thursday night or Friday morning. Now, a caveat here: A track further west very near southeastern Florida on Friday morning is certainly possible and this is something that will need to be watched for very closely.

Beyond that, I have concerns that the forecast guidance are trending towards the idea of Sandy phasing into the eastern trough of low pressure and potentially becoming an intense coastal storm for the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. At this point, it is a possibility and we have more than enough time to watch for this potential.

One final thought: Late season tropical storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean can be extremely fickle and difficult to forecast. If we take a look at climatology for Caribbean storms in late October, they tend to take a north-northwesterly track towards south Florida. Additionally, late season storms are notorious slow moving systems and do not escape out the Caribbean very quickly; so, it is plausible that the global models may be overdoing the track out of the Caribbean with this system. So, nothing is written in stone when it comes to 99L/Sandy and this is a system that bears very close scrutiny.
I have been coming here for 5 years now. Been a paid member for 4. Well here it is.

Next year I will attempt to make my own forecasts! I saw how some people wailed on Levi for one busted forecast, so I hope you all understand, I have no formal edu. in weather but took this up as a hobby on the advice of my doctor and have become obsessed maybe….

For those that under stand AUTISM… I do tend to be rather OCD.
914. wjdow
Quoting Autistic2:
I have 0 faith in model tracks untill they at least have a closed circ to lock onto or a TD would be better. Untill its closed there are just to many varibles.
Does having zero faith mean that you think that their pre-closed circulation predictions are no better than chance? That's pretty harsh on your part.
Follow up on Icelandic earthquake swarm...

There is no risk of volcano activity in this area following this earthquake swarm. Since there are no volcanoes in this area of Iceland. This earthquakes are strike-fault earthquakes.
Quoting wjdow:
Does having zero faith mean that you think that their pre-closed circulation predictions are no better than chance? That's pretty harsh on your part.


That is correct. We have yet to understand all the varibles, therefore we cannot write the programs to account for them. Therefore, they are nothing more than a educated guess trhat we know cannot be correct.

After they have a TD to lock opnto there are still varibles that we dont uderstand but the numer of them drops drastically.

Remember, I am only speaking about tack here, not formation.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Crown Weather not ruling out a South Florida threat.

So, here are my thoughts:
As I have really mentioned, I do think that 99L will be named Sandy by Tuesday at the very latest and a track north-northeastward right across Jamaica as a moderately strong tropical storm seems likely right now. The timeframe for this would be Wednesday evening. From there, Sandy may turn more northward and it “feels” the trough of low pressure to its west and starts to get captured by that trough. This means a track across the central/northwestern Bahamas is possible from near the southern end of Andros Island to right across Great Abaco Island on Thursday night or Friday morning. Now, a caveat here: A track further west very near southeastern Florida on Friday morning is certainly possible and this is something that will need to be watched for very closely.

Beyond that, I have concerns that the forecast guidance are trending towards the idea of Sandy phasing into the eastern trough of low pressure and potentially becoming an intense coastal storm for the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. At this point, it is a possibility and we have more than enough time to watch for this potential.

One final thought: Late season tropical storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean can be extremely fickle and difficult to forecast. If we take a look at climatology for Caribbean storms in late October, they tend to take a north-northwesterly track towards south Florida. Additionally, late season storms are notorious slow moving systems and do not escape out the Caribbean very quickly; so, it is plausible that the global models may be overdoing the track out of the Caribbean with this system. So, nothing is written in stone when it comes to 99L/Sandy and this is a system that bears very close scrutiny.
Well with how whack our weather has been this year nothing will surprise me anymore that's for sure.I just hope this leads to more nor'easters this winter.
Quoting Autistic2:
I have 0 faith in model tracks untill they at least have a closed circ to lock onto or a TD would be better. Untill its closed there are just to many varibles.
I agree I think this puppy is going to FL in the long run because that it where history this time of year always points to. Also the increase of motion that just exploded of the Yucatan may pull the circulation more west. What does everyone think?
I just completed this homemade radiation shield.... Ooohh la la
We need to watch this one! I think that with all the moisture of the Yucatan that this may developed more west. Climatilogically speaking FL is where most of these end up. Also this early I see those tracks just need to move a couple hundred miles west and bingo! Rick Scott is on Tv in FL warningpeople to prepare. Any comments?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Follow up on Icelandic earthquake swarm...

There is no risk of volcano activity in this area following this earthquake swarm. Since there are no volcanoes in this area of Iceland. This earthquakes are strike-fault earthquakes.

That's a fairly big swarm.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I just completed this homemade radiation shield.... Ooohh la la
Is this guy a crack puppy or what?
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
I agree I think this puppy is going to FL in the long run because that it where history this time of year always points to. Also the increase of motion that just exploded of the Yucatan may pull the circulation more west. What does everyone think?
I agree with you. I think since it is still moving west with all that convection in the western Caribbean the chances for a more Central or Western Cuba and a Florida impact increases greatly.
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
I agree I think this puppy is going to FL in the long run because that it where history this time of year always points to. Also the increase of motion that just exploded of the Yucatan may pull the circulation more west. What does everyone think?

Good morning, everyone. While all eyes seem to be focused on 99L, that area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan and Guatemala looks at least as impressive to me. I think we'll have another invest there soon. I think the combination of these two storms will have a tendency to shift 99L much further west than models are calling for now. That other area of disturbed weather is what may become the biggest threat over time. The models need a real low in one of the two areas before they start to get a handle on things.
926. 7544
morning all 99l should start to gather all the convection today as it is doing so now also more models have this close to so fl could become a td by 11pm tonight imo fl should keep one eye on this one looks like its goin to be close call . even if goes east of fla they will see some kind of effects imo
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
Is this guy a crack puppy or what?

Actually, that's a pretty neat homemade radiation shield for a thermometer. I like it!
The GFS predictions (model runs) from about 1 week ago at 10 days out are starting to materialize (despite the naysayers).
It quite amazing to see these models predict tropical development that far out in the future.

Some models have shifted west since the earlier run.



<
Quoting Grothar:
Some models have shifted west since the earlier run.



99L/future Sandy better find it's way out to sea on a one way ticket to Greenland.
Quoting Grothar:
Some models have shifted west since the earlier run.





Morning Gro, it's going to be a close call. Beaches will suffer the greatest damage, again.
933. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning guys.

The fact that all of the global models, with the exception of the ECMWF, blow this up into at least a Category 1 hurricane as it exits the coast of Cuba shows the favorable upper-air environment 99L will have throughout most of its lifespan. As the trough first sags south and draws 99L northward, there may be some wind shear, but I highly doubt it will be intense enough to cause substantial weakening. After 99L clears Cuba, the consensus seems to be for quick intensification into a hurricane within the Bahamas by 144 hours out (6 days). I doubt 99L, or Sandy by the time, makes a direct impact on the state of Florida, although heavy rainfall and gusty winds are now definitely possible for the eastern portion of the state. A strong trough of low pressure should save the Carolinas from a landfall as well, although again, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are a possibility.

0z GFS 144 hours:



0z UKMET 120 hours:



0z CMC 144 hours:



agree and its only 5 days away and could be at least a cat one .
Quoting 7544:
morning all 99l should start to gather all the convection today as it is doing so now also more models have this close to so fl could become a td by 11pm tonight imo fl should keep one eye on this one looks like its goin to be close call . even if goes east of fla they will see some kind of effects imo


When systems like this move close to the Florida coast, a strong pressure gradient sometimes forms and the winds can be near TS force, even though the system is quite far away. If it move up off the east coast the same could happen.
Quoting Grothar:


When systems like this move close to the Florida coast, a strong pressure gradient sometimes forms and the winds can be near TS force, even though the system is quite far away. If it move up off the east coast the same could happen.
Reminds me of Noel back in 2007.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Morning Gro, it's going to be a close call. Beaches will suffer the greatest damage, again.


Yeah, I was just looking at one of the models. These things can cause a lot of erosion and sometimes coastal flooding, if it does come as close as this


Quoting sar2401:

Good morning, everyone. While all eyes seem to be focused on 99L, that area of disturbed weather off the Yucatan and Guatemala looks at least as impressive to me. I think we'll have another invest there soon. I think the combination of these two storms will have a tendency to shift 99L much further west than models are calling for now. That other area of disturbed weather is what may become the biggest threat over time. The models need a real low in one of the two areas before they start to get a handle on things.
Please don,t call Belize Guatemala we are a independent country.
Quoting Grothar:


When systems like this move close to the Florida coast, a strong pressure gradient sometimes forms and the winds can be near TS force, even though the system is quite far away. If it move up off the east coast the same could happen.


Grothar, do you remember when Floyd passed by? Of course he was a Category 5 at the time, but we had some interesting weather, if I have the right storm.

I was playing in a softball tournament at Mills Pond Park in Fort Lauderdale and it was very hot and very breezy with the winds gusting over 40mph. I remember hitting a pop-up fly ball that should have been an out in short left field, but instead it landed on a trailer beyond the parking lot, about 340 feet away from me for my first tournament home run.
GFDL 126 hours


Do you think we will get to Tony?
942. 7544
Quoting Grothar:
GFDL 126 hours




well that joins the fl camp how strong is that tia
99L is starting to fire up convection again it still has some work to do before it can be classified. The models has shifted west from the SE Bahamas to Now the Central and NW Bahamas. My be the cutoff trough might not be strong enough to dig it up out of the SW Caribbean and immediately send it off to NNE. This seem too sharp of a turn.
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Grothar, do you remember when Floyd passed by? Of course he was a Category 5 at the time, but we had some interesting weather, if I have the right storm.

I was playing in a softball tournament at Mills Pond Park in Fort Lauderdale and it was very hot and very breezy with the winds gusting over 40mph. I remember hitting a pop-up fly ball that should have been an out in short left field, but instead it landed on a trailer beyond the parking lot, about 340 feet away from me for my first tournament home run.


Yes, I do. That was a big one. We were supposed to evacuate for that one. We had bad erosion on the beaches and some parts of A1A were flooded if I remember. Mills Pond Park is just a few miles from our home.
Quoting 7544:


well that joins the fl camp how strong is that tia


The GFDL models have been very close. I think they shifted a little to the west since the earlier run. I'm waiting for the new ones to come out shortly. The one thing I see is almost all the models have a quick turn to the North as the trough approaches. Where that would be is still too early to tell.
Quoting Hurricanes305:
99L is starting to fire up convection again it still has some work to do before it can be classified. The models has shifted west from the SE Bahamas to Now the Central and NW Bahamas. My be the cutoff trough might not be strong enough to dig it up out of the SW Caribbean and immediately send it off to NNE. This seem too sharp of a turn.
That is the same thing I think. For it to impact the SE Bahamas it would need to move north now which it clearly is not doing.Seems to be pulling moisture from the blob in the GOH.
The HWRF has 99L further to the East.

If everything comes together is a Hurricane Hazel track possible with 99L? ( The northern part of it at least... where it goes North of Haiti and Cuba...)

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201446
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 20 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-154

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 21/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 21/1630Z
D. 16.0N 77.0W
E. 21/2030Z TO 21/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


$$
EC

Take Off @ 4pm
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Right now the CMC and the GFDL are the most logical models. This Cutoff trough has to be really strong and potent to pick it up from the SW Caribbean and deflect all the way NNE over the SE Bahamas and out to sea is just ridicules as it would have to be moving more to the north for that to occur. The most logical scenario is for it to continue on its zonal path till it feel the trough and respond by going more Northwesterly, North and then eventually NE which means that would by the NW Bahamas and Florida in to the equation which is climatology favored path. A West then NE turn would favor heavy troughing over the Eastern seaboard acting as a defense mechanism. A pattern more climatology favoring in November.
.
954. beell
I keep hearing about this trough that will pull 99L out of the Caribbean. It's modeled effects are apparent over the Bahamas later in the week but something else must be in play to get it headed that direction in the short term.

There is no trough anywhere near as 99L crosses Cuba-still off to the west. Nothing but ridging over the Gulf. All I see is the possibility for the ridge to begin lifting N and allowing 99L to begin a more northward track.

Comments, corrections?