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Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The computer models, with the exception of the CMC, are not excited about developing the Central Atlantic tropical wave. Do you think it has a respecatable chance?

I am assessing right now...fundamentally I am looking to see if the upper vortex in the central Atlantic is weakening or giving way. If the upper vortex gets out of the way...shear will reduce and we could get something...
Quoting ncstorm:
12z CMC out to 180 hours
whew if that goes up the east coast..for sure a strong nor'easter,and whew on the size of it too
Look at the system in the Midwest at 150 hours:

new GFS at 144 hours....................
Strong low pressure over the UP providing a rush of cooler air. There is also a TS near the SW Bahamas at 156hrs.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Strong low pressure over the UP providing a rush of cooler air. There is also a TS near the SW Bahamas at 156hrs.

That's interesting...maybe "Sandy" would get swept up ahead of the strong UP system...and end up transforming "Sandy" into a decent nor'easter while taking advantage of the baroclinic zone of the UP system...
One week out. Cold is plunging into the central US as a weak system moves near the Bahamas:

Quoting RetiredChiefP:
Alright my weather experts, my wife needs somehelp. We both know a bit about El Niño and La Niña...but she needs a short, yet simple explanation that her students (9th grade Geography) can comprehend. Any suggestions on reference materials?

Thanks,
Chief P...(retired)


check this out might help

Link
This is a remarkably deep trough being portrayed by the GFS:

1000mb TS at the Bahamas and more cold air spilling in at 174hrs.
Quoting wxchaser97:
1000mb TS at the Bahamas and more cold air spilling in at 174hrs.
yes most of the models put a storm near the bahamas next week
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The computer models, with the exception of the CMC, are not excited about developing the Central Atlantic tropical wave. Do you think it has a respecatable chance?


chat!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is a remarkably deep trough being portrayed by the GFS:



Some areas in the plains would be getting snow if this pans out. I wouldn't mind an outbreak of cold air right now.


Quoting NCHurricane2009:

That's interesting...maybe "Sandy" would get swept up ahead of the strong UP system...and end up transforming "Sandy" into a decent nor'easter while taking advantage of the baroclinic zone of the UP system...


So far Sandy isn't moving too much in this run but it could become a nor'easter later in the run, we will see.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


check this out might help

Link


Thanks KotG! Sent her the link.
Cold air is locked in over the Great lakes and the GFS does at split and has 1-2 systems going at 228hrs.
228 hours. Cold air weakens some as the TS moves out to sea:

to me this is still almost summer huh..................
Cold completely breaks down by 252 hours:

Never mind, that isn't former Sandy. She is taking NE toward the Azores and absorbed.
looks like ND will be need a all day hard frz warning with highs olny in the mid 30s come mid week next week
storm coming to you WPB.............
Quoting wxchaser97:
And former Sandy gets sent toward the NE at 276hrs.



likey the 1st nor ester
Kind of a crazy run... look at the storm in the south by 324 hours:

Will this tropical wave if it develops into something will it move northeast to Cuba or West to Central America?
While this is far out in time, look at that low over the southern US at 324hrs.
I hope Doppler22 is keeping an eye on things because there's a tornado warned storm in MD heading for the PA border.
Quoting allancalderini:
Will this tropical wave if it develops into something will it move northeast to Cuba or West to Central America?
what the NWS is watching in regards to cuba is a storm development in the southern caribbean then moving notheastward over cuba or therebouts..my guess is the atlantic storm turns NE up towards the bahamas maybe even before getting to the islands..we'll see next week
That low is sent toward MI at 348hrs.


Doppler ,if you are still here, please stay safe and listen to any warnings as storms a forming.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
645 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

MDC005-192300-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0043.000000T0000Z-121019T2300Z/
BALTIMORE MD-
645 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR BALTIMORE
COUNTY...

AT 645 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR COCKEYSVILLE...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...
MONKTON...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 7657 3952 7668 3962 7661 3952 7651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 221DEG 21KT 3952 7661

$$
folks in the mid'lantic states,heed your local warnings..stay safe up there..weather is turning bad tonight..................COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

MDZ014-200330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.CF.Y.0049.121020T0000Z-121020T0400Z/
ANNE ARUNDEL-
329 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

* TIDAL ANOMALY...UP TO ONE FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION.

* TIMING...AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.

* EXPECTED IMPACTS...MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION...PARTICULARLY
AROUND ANNAPOLIS.

HERE IS THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE

ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY...9:34 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

JACKSON
TORNADO WARNING
MDC005-025-192330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0044.121019T2252Z-121019T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
652 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
CENTRAL BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 651 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JARRETTSVILLE...OR 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF COCKEYSVILLE...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JARRETTSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3951 7655 3955 7664 3973 7653 3972 7626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 214DEG 24KT 3955 7655

$$
gee this is like what happened in texas last night.....................650 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
ARLINGTON...MONTGOMERY...HARFORD...CARROLL...SOUT HERN BALTIMORE...
NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...ANNE ARUNDEL...HOWARD...FAIRFAX
AND CALVERT COUNTIES...

AT 649 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF PARKTON TO WOODMORE...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MORRELL PARK...LANSDOWNE...DRUID HILLS
PARK...LINTHICUM...BALTIMORE...UNION SQUARE...ROLAND PARK...
PHOENIX...HARWOOD AND DUNKIRK.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3958 7609 3948 7607 3929 7629 3930 7630
3938 7633 3931 7632 3923 7638 3919 7644
3922 7652 3914 7642 3902 7638 3888 7650
3862 7650 3871 7723 3872 7723 3972 7673
3972 7623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 275DEG 24KT 3966 7668 3896 7677

$$

SDG
ok thats it for me folks-stay safe out there........
Asheville, NC & areas around there are getting hit by the dust that kicked up in the Plains yesterday. Pic story & here.
Quoting Skyepony:
Asheville, NC & areas around there are getting hit by the dust that kicked up in the Pails yesterday. Pic story & here.

It's even in the NWS forecast in some cities across Georgia and Tennessee.

Knoxville, TN:

Tonight: Areas of blowing dust before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Quoting LargoFl:
what the NWS is watching in regards to cuba is a storm development in the southern caribbean then moving notheastward over cuba or therebouts..my guess is the atlantic storm turns NE up towards the bahamas maybe even before getting to the islands..we'll see next week
the atlantic low? you meant north west towards the bahamas...north of the island, similar, but more North westward than Rafael..
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
BROAD DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Invest 99L around the corner now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS
INTERACTING WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
BROAD DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Should be an invest very soon the Caribbean system.
BEGIN
CPHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_cp922012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210191218
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Well that is one of the smallest ovals I have ever seen for a TWO, sarcasm flag is on.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well that is one of the smallest ovals I have ever seen for a TWO, sarcasm flag is on.


That means the low may form on anyplace within the circle. But I suspect that as time goes by,they will turn the circle smaller.
Weather or knot ?


92C


92C Rainbow Floater Loop dee Loop



Quoting Patrap:
Weather or knot ?


92C


92C Rainbow Floater Loop dee Loop






its not 92C any more
Chubby.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Kind of a crazy run... look at the storm in the south by 324 hours:



The GFS had been hinting at this for a couple days now. I noticed our 384hr ptot go from 1.25 inches to over 6.00 here in the Houston area today. I'm open arms for that if it comes true.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Seeing more of a windshift than earlier.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Seeing more of a windshift than earlier.
I agree.
If this happens at Ft. Pierce tomorrow night, it will wreck our fundraiser. That is 3 inch an hour rain rate.



Six inches, and adding up fast;

XXL/AOI/XX/XX
Quoting catastropheadjuster:



I have to que in on this. I am one of them that sit and stay in the background and read. I look forward coming on here to see what you post and all, so please don't go anywhere. These folks have chased away a lot of people cause they get tired of all the bull hockey. There jerks and don't have a life, really there a joke. So you just stay and we will just - and report them every chance we get. Well that's what I do. I know the good guys from the very childish and ignorant ones.

sheri


Thanks you and everyone for your kind words. This is the reason I have decided to stay.
Quoting allancalderini:
Should be an invest very soon the Caribbean system.


I don't think so...it's very broad
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't think so...it's very broad


Agreed.There is no defined low pressure at the moment to pin down and make it as the focus for a invest.
All i have to say is... HOLY CRAP...... The tornadic warned storm near Baltimore earlier this evening... i went through it... Ive never seen it rain soo hard and soo much lightning before...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't think so...it's very broad


it will be an area of interest
for at least 12 maybe 24 hrs
lots of time to see
what happens if anything
I didn't notice this when I was posting the frames earlier, but the 18z GFS actually brought a hurricane into Mexico:



And that is the low that ends up in the Gulf:



And then the South:



And then the North:



Quite the little journey that system takes.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated Oct 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. Multiple low-level C-class
flares occurred, including a C3 flare at 19/2052Z from an
un-numbered region beyond the southeast limb. Region 1596
(N08E60), an Eko/Beta-Gamma spot group, showed intermediate spot
growth and was the most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk. Several CMEs were observed on LASCO C2 imagery, however, none
are believed to be Earth-directed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare during the
forecast period (20-23 October).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, steadily decreased from
approximately 600 km/s to near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly positive with maximum
deflections near /-2 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (20 October). Days 2 and 3 (21-22
October) should see an increase to quiet to unsettled levels due to
the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green





Credit;
Solarham.net
hope you like it... :)

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

PAC011-200130-
/O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-121020T0130Z/
BERKS PA-
918 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY...

AT 917 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
LYONS...OR 8 MILES EAST OF READING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LYONS BY 930 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 7574 4043 7561 4033 7574 4039 7587
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 219DEG 19KT 4038 7578

$$
Looks like we have something to watch in the Carribean..
shear is lessening..
20%..
Any opinion on it yet Keeper?
Never mind I see your post at #563..
Wonder what kman and pottery will think..
Very moist enviroment..





Quoting pcola57:
Looks like we have something to watch in the Carribean..
shear is lessening..
20%..
Any opinion on it yet Keeper?
Never mind I see your post at #563..
Wonder what kman and pottery will think..

Pottery is happy that it's west of him.....

heheheheheh
Quoting pottery:

Pottery is happy that it's west of him.....

heheheheheh


Like the genie of lore..
Just speak the name and you magically appear..LOL
May the fairest of winds blow your way the rest of this oddest of years my friend.. :)
Glad your in the clear..I must go to attend the duties at hand but will return when possible.. :)
Both AOI's actually look pretty good right now. I wonder if the CMC model is correct in predicting that they both would develop into potentially potent tropical systems.
Quoting pcola57:
Looks like we have something to watch in the Carribean..
shear is lessening..
20%..
Any opinion on it yet Keeper?
Never mind I see your post at #563..
Wonder what kman and pottery will think..


Definitely needs to be watched. The MJO is very active now and that coincides with a historical secondary peak of the season. Three reliable models have been harping on something spinning up in the SW Caribbean.

Sunday and later is the timeline for potential development.

Quoting pcola57:


Like the genie of lore..
Just speak the name and you magically appear..LOL
May the fairest of winds blow your way the rest of this oddest of years my friend.. :)
Glad your in the clear..I must go to attend the duties at hand but will return when possible.. :)

Thank you, Dear Fellow!
And may you enjoy the bruits of your duties.

Have a great weekend!
Quoting kmanislander:


Definitely needs to be watched. The MJO is very active now and that coincides with a historical secondary peak of the season. Three reliable models have been harping on something spinning up in the SW Caribbean.

Sunday and later is the timeline for potential development.


True, all that.
Lots of potential in the coming days in that area.


WHO.....
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


WHO.....

WHA ?
Models seem to show this potential new system emerge at about the same time as another one in the Pacific (next name up is Rosa, #17)... Can anyone comment on potential conditions there, I saw several runs really deepen whatever develops over there...
Quoting kmanislander:


Definitely needs to be watched. The MJO is very active now and that coincides with a historical secondary peak of the season. Three reliable models have been harping on something spinning up in the SW Caribbean.

Sunday and later is the timeline for potential development.



Fate rarely calls upon us at a moment of our Choosing
Once again...GOES-13 stinks...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4. html

The HDW-H...HDW-M...and so forth (high density wind products) are not working again. I think this happens a lot more with GOES-13 than any of the other GOES satellites...
Quoting kmanislander:


Definitely needs to be watched. The MJO is very active now and that coincides with a historical secondary peak of the season. Three reliable models have been harping on something spinning up in the SW Caribbean.

Sunday and later is the timeline for potential development.



It will be important to see where the low pressure forms as that will have implications on both intensity and track. IMO,if it forms west of 75W it may miss the trough and not lift NE but if it forms east of 75W it will be the contrary.
584. etxwx
Good evening all...time for a newsbreak?

UK experiences 'weirdest' weather
18 October 2012 By Roger Harrabin BBC

Excerpt: "We have to get our heads round the possibility now that we're going to have to move very quickly from drought to flood - with river levels very high and very low over a short period of time." (comments are from Paul Mustow, head of flood management at the Environment Agency)

"We used to say we had a traditional flood season in winter - now often it's in summer. This is an integrated problem - there's no one thing that's going to solve it. The situation is changing all the time."

But scientists present from the Met Office and CEH said not much could be read into the weird weather. Terry Marsh from CEH said: "Rainfall charts show no compelling long-term trend - the annual precipitation table shows lots of variability."

Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that it did not discern any pattern that suggested Man-made climate change was at play in UK rainfall - although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain.

She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold, drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years.

"Longer term we will see a trend to drier summers but superimposed on that we will always see natural variability," she said.
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Both AOI's actually look pretty good right now. I wonder if the CMC model is correct in predicting that they both would develop into potentially potent tropical systems.


From what I can tell...looks like the central Atlantic AOI is doing really well in reduced shear and split flow upper divergence just NE of the upper vortex. It may develop first over the Caribbean AOI. Of course...I can't verify this because the HDW-H (upper-level high density winds product) isn't working on GOES-13!
Oh golly, the blog and 6 pages upon getting home. But in bed right away as have to be in earlier than usual tomorrow, so no time to look back at what's going on. So will say though from what I saw in this page...Wash surely NOT happy at the winter outlook?! I hope bwrong and your snowstorm comes!!! Still the same waiting to see what happens in W Carrib...and Aussie...I don't always agree with your opinion and probably agree with say Neo's opinions more, even if I don't say so, but glad you're staying.
Quoting etxwx:
Good evening all...time for a newsbreak?

UK experiences 'weirdest' weather
18 October 2012 By Roger Harrabin BBC

Excerpt: "We have to get our heads round the possibility now that we're going to have to move very quickly from drought to flood - with river levels very high and very low over a short period of time." (comments are from Paul Mustow, head of flood management at the Environment Agency)

"We used to say we had a traditional flood season in winter - now often it's in summer. This is an integrated problem - there's no one thing that's going to solve it. The situation is changing all the time."

But scientists present from the Met Office and CEH said not much could be read into the weird weather. Terry Marsh from CEH said: "Rainfall charts show no compelling long-term trend - the annual precipitation table shows lots of variability."

Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that it did not discern any pattern that suggested Man-made climate change was at play in UK rainfall - although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain.

She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold, drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years.

"Longer term we will see a trend to drier summers but superimposed on that we will always see natural variability," she said.


Except in North Wales where it just seems to get more wet wet wet!! The mildew I have to keep cleaning indoors and mold taking hold on everything...ARGH!! LOL
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It will be important to see where the low pressure forms as that will have implications on both intensity and track. IMO,if it forms west of 75W it may miss the trough and not lift NE but if it forms east of 75W it will be the contrary.
Agree, they are plenty of storms in the past to support both solutions. Even though there will be high pressure to the north this trough coming through FL. now is expected to carve a huge weakness in the Central Atlantic, so this storm would be inclined to take the path of least resistance. However, if the base of that high expands just far enough east it could force the storm back west before eventually turning back towards the northeast in advance of another cold front.
Invest 95B





1994 Hurricane Gordon track:

Quoting etxwx:
Good evening all...time for a newsbreak?

UK experiences 'weirdest' weather
18 October 2012 By Roger Harrabin BBC

Excerpt: "We have to get our heads round the possibility now that we're going to have to move very quickly from drought to flood - with river levels very high and very low over a short period of time." (comments are from Paul Mustow, head of flood management at the Environment Agency)

"We used to say we had a traditional flood season in winter - now often it's in summer. This is an integrated problem - there's no one thing that's going to solve it. The situation is changing all the time."

But scientists present from the Met Office and CEH said not much could be read into the weird weather. Terry Marsh from CEH said: "Rainfall charts show no compelling long-term trend - the annual precipitation table shows lots of variability."

Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that it did not discern any pattern that suggested Man-made climate change was at play in UK rainfall - although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain.

She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold, drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years.

"Longer term we will see a trend to drier summers but superimposed on that we will always see natural variability," she said.


When I was in the UK in 1991(6weeks) and 1997(4weeks), it rained 75% of the time. I remember traveling from Manchester to Edinburgh, once we crossed the boarder it started to rain, as if Scotland was saying welcome, this is how our weather is. Both times I was there it was in mid to late summer.
I know this is in fantasy land, but look how far south the 534 line is and there is moisture north of it.

594. etxwx
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Except in North Wales where it just seems to get more wet wet wet!! The mildew I have to keep cleaning indoors and mold taking hold on everything...ARGH!! LOL


I hear ya, mitt. It's never a good thing when what you thought were your fuzzy slippers turn out to be your leather shoes. You are welcome to send all that rain to Texas...we'll happily send ya some nice dry weather in return. :-)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


From what I can tell...looks like the central Atlantic AOI is doing really well in reduced shear and split flow upper divergence just NE of the upper vortex. It may develop first over the Caribbean AOI. Of course...I can't verify this because the HDW-H (upper-level high density winds product) isn't working on GOES-13!


Yeah, it looks impressive right now, if this keeps up I think it can surprise everyone, but I'm not sure how long it can survive where it is, at this time in October.
00Z is coming out now!:)
Blatant shock, the NWS is forecasting it to get down to the 50s in my area in Florida. Finally, good jogging weather.

SATURDAY
NIGHT

Mostly
Clear
Low: 54 F
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blatant shock, the NWS is forecasting it to get down to the 50s in my area in Florida. Finally, good jogging weather.
And good weather for the Trick or Treaters. I know you can get hot in some of those costumes.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Blatant shock, the NWS is forecasting it to get down to the 50s in my area in Florida. Finally, good jogging weather.

Jogging at night?
GFS 24 hrs.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Jogging at night?


Well, for one it doesn't get to lowest temperature until just before sunrise, which is about 600AM. So yes, I guess jogging at night.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, for one it doesn't lowest temperature until just before sunrise, which is about 600AM. So yes, I guess jogging at night.

...6 am?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...6 am?

Some people do get up that early, unlike you. It is actually pretty nice weather wise in the morning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...6 am?


Well, that's an hour isn't it?
GFS does a split near Cuba and Hispaniola at 138hrs.


At 168hrs we have multiple competing lows near Bermuda.
Quoting GraduateStudent2012:
Good morning, ^_^.

A good afternoon to everyone. LOL
The blog has become much more quiet after Rafael.
At 192hrs we get two tropical storm to form from one area of low pressure. It comes from the multiple lows in the post below. One storm heads toward Fl and the other out to sea.

276hrs and one TS is lifted north, not hitting FL, and the other continues slowly E. Also something makes landfall in Mexico.
The GFS has been consistent with sending the remnants of a hurricane over Mexico toward the US.


Quoting GraduateStudent2012:
Good morning, ^_^.

Good Afternoon from a very beautifully blue sky Sydney.
Quoting wxchaser97:
At 192hrs we get two tropical storm to form from one area of low pressure. It comes from the multiple lows in the post below. One storm heads toward Fl and the other out to sea.

I have a feeling this is going to be a tough one to track.
Quoting wxchaser97:
The GFS has been consistent with sending the remnants of a hurricane over Mexico toward the US.



I won't pay attention much to what the models say until something actually forms.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I have a feeling this is going to be a tough one to track.

It could be, but of course this is just one run. It should be an interesting week for sure.

Quoting AussieStorm:

I won't pay attention much to what the models say until something actually forms.

I'm not until it forms, plus this is in fantasy land anyway. It is getting closer to the time of development though than before.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IS INTERACTING WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS BROAD DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Lol, wish I could sleep. Still trying to get out of my 5:30pm-5:30am work schedule from the Summer. Getting to sleep before sunrise is always a plus.

Nothing going on with the tropic/blog yet, but that is sure to change fairly soon. Favorable conditions plus a strong MJO in our area, not to be ignored.
Oh, the vast emptiness!
.
A very beautiful day here in the SE Pacific. Places in inner Queensland and Western Australia are having very hot weather, 110F in some places.


Loop
Deep purple means mega hot.

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

In Other news....

Permanent cloud-seeding gets green light

A plan to boost snowfall in the New South Wales Snowy Mountains has passed through State Parliament.

The Government announced last month that cloud seeding trials had proved successful and that it would seek to make the process permanent.

The Member for Monaro, John Barilaro, says the trial resulted in a 14 per-cent increase in snowfall.

He says the legislation will help safeguard the region's ski industry.
It is great for tourism and great for the local economy, Mr Barilaro said.
There are other benefits of course such as the alpine environment with the extra snow depth.
That'll mean when the snow melts, there'll be additional water for our river systems, for the dams, for the environment.
There is also another benefit about green energies through the hydro electric reduction that comes out of the snowy scheme."
The State opposition has welcomed the cloud-seeding legislation.
The former Member for Monaro and Opposition spokesman for Primary Industries, Steve Whan, says the plan to increase snowfalls will boost water flows and snow cover.
I moved a small amendment which the government accepted to ensure that if there are different elements used as the chemicals that they would be properly tested, he said.
Apart from that it went through very smoothly and I'm very pleased that this - initially a Labor initiative - is allowing cloud-seeding.

It has now turned into a permanent feature of the winter in the Snowy Mountains."

ABC 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

In Other news....

Permanent cloud-seeding gets green light

A plan to boost snowfall in the New South Wales Snowy Mountains has passed through State Parliament.

The Government announced last month that cloud seeding trials had proved successful and that it would seek to make the process permanent.

The Member for Monaro, John Barilaro, says the trial resulted in a 14 per-cent increase in snowfall.

He says the legislation will help safeguard the region's ski industry.
It is great for tourism and great for the local economy, Mr Barilaro said.
There are other benefits of course such as the alpine environment with the extra snow depth.
That'll mean when the snow melts, there'll be additional water for our river systems, for the dams, for the environment.
There is also another benefit about green energies through the hydro electric reduction that comes out of the snowy scheme."
The State opposition has welcomed the cloud-seeding legislation.
The former Member for Monaro and Opposition spokesman for Primary Industries, Steve Whan, says the plan to increase snowfalls will boost water flows and snow cover.
I moved a small amendment which the government accepted to ensure that if there are different elements used as the chemicals that they would be properly tested, he said.
Apart from that it went through very smoothly and I'm very pleased that this - initially a Labor initiative - is allowing cloud-seeding.

It has now turned into a permanent feature of the winter in the Snowy Mountains."

© ABC 2012


I wonder what happens to other regions when water vapor that wasn't supposed to be precipitation gets seeded into snow. Hopefully no unintended consequences arise like increased desertification.

I still think we know far too little to be modifying our weather for economic boosts when it could easily cause the opposite in the long run.


Lake Michigan is still staying warmer or as warm as the past 2 decade average.
Quoting AussieStorm:
A very beautiful day here in the SE Pacific. Places in inner Queensland and Western Australia are having very hot weather, 110F in some places.


Loop
Deep purple means mega hot.

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

In Other news....

Permanent cloud-seeding gets green light

A plan to boost snowfall in the New South Wales Snowy Mountains has passed through State Parliament.

The Government announced last month that cloud seeding trials had proved successful and that it would seek to make the process permanent.

The Member for Monaro, John Barilaro, says the trial resulted in a 14 per-cent increase in snowfall.

He says the legislation will help safeguard the region's ski industry.
It is great for tourism and great for the local economy, Mr Barilaro said.
There are other benefits of course such as the alpine environment with the extra snow depth.
That'll mean when the snow melts, there'll be additional water for our river systems, for the dams, for the environment.
There is also another benefit about green energies through the hydro electric reduction that comes out of the snowy scheme."
The State opposition has welcomed the cloud-seeding legislation.
The former Member for Monaro and Opposition spokesman for Primary Industries, Steve Whan, says the plan to increase snowfalls will boost water flows and snow cover.
I moved a small amendment which the government accepted to ensure that if there are different elements used as the chemicals that they would be properly tested, he said.
Apart from that it went through very smoothly and I'm very pleased that this - initially a Labor initiative - is allowing cloud-seeding.

It has now turned into a permanent feature of the winter in the Snowy Mountains."

%uFFFD ABC 2012


It'll be most interesting to see if this works in real-time. Kinda hard to accept their purported notion of a 14% increase in snowfall when they really didn't give the details. Furthermore, one seemingly successful attempt doesn't really directly correlate with cloud seeding, either.

If repeatability shows results, I will be a little more convinced.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It'll be most interesting to see if this works in real-time. Kinda hard to accept their purported notion of a 14% increase in snowfall when they really didn't give the details. Furthermore, one seemingly successful attempt doesn't really directly correlate with cloud seeding, either.

If repeatability shows results, I will be a little more convinced.

When clouds drop rain or snow where they would not normally, then other areas are bound to be deprived!
Add to this the facts that other areas will not receive the shade of passing clouds and the atmospheric moisture content will probably drop in other areas,this will probably produce a knock on effect somewhere.
There is the common analogy that if you take enough water out of a river for irrigation etc, eventually the river will not reach the sea. I think this happens with the Colorado river.
Tampering with rain/water patterns for short term human benefits can lead to long term problems. Remember the Aral Sea?
Good Morning...our system in the Caribbean is coming together nicely.



I actually fell asleep with my laptop opened up on my bed and all of a sudden woke up and realized it and that I had clothes in the washer that I needed to take out to put in the dryer.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Morning...our system in the Caribbean is coming together nicely.



I actually fell asleep with my laptop opened up on my bed and all of a sudden woke up and realized it and that I had clothes in the washer that I needed to take out to put in the dryer.
...good morning GT and everyone
Well, it was fun while it lasted. Back to blogging today, it seems.

But first, sleep!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Morning...our system in the Caribbean is coming together nicely.



I actually fell asleep with my laptop opened up on my bed and all of a sudden woke up and realized it and that I had clothes in the washer that I needed to take out to put in the dryer.


Good morning. There is also spin in the EPAC area and that may be the system GFS develops there. In other words,very interesting times ahead in both basins.
Good morning. While this is highly unlikely to verify, check out the 0z CMC run... it brings future Sandy into the NE as an epic Nor'easter- 956mb in the second image at 204 hours!



Code orange!

The other AOI up to 20%.

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT
1000 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. While this is highly unlikely to verify, check out the 0z CMC run... it brings future Sandy into the NE as an epic Nor'easter- 956mb in the second image at 204 hours!





OMG!!! I don't want that to happen
8 to 10 days
The Caribbean disturbance will likely be declared an invest very soon (possibly within the next hour) as they have generally been making systems like this invests after they bump them up to medium.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Caribbean disturbance will likely be declared an invest very soon (possibly within the next hour) as they have generally been making systems like this invests after they bump them up to medium.
You mean like this?

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210201230
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992012
AL, 99, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 155N, 725W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting Neapolitan:
You mean like this?

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210201230
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992012
AL, 99, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 155N, 725W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Thank you Nea. I wonder what the pressure is in this AOI.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thank you Nea. I wonder what the pressure is in this AOI.
The initial ATCF file is usually updated to the full file (with barometric pressure, windspeed, and location history) within a short period; I expect it any time...
As I was saying:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210201236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992012
AL, 99, 2012101912, , BEST, 0, 140N, 690W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012101918, , BEST, 0, 143N, 697W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012102000, , BEST, 0, 147N, 705W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012102006, , BEST, 0, 151N, 715W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 155N, 725W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Good morning everyone, I see we have invest 99L and it is up to 30%. The other AOI is also looking good this morning and it too could be invested in. Right now it is a wet cool fall morning with a good amount of leaves on the ground.
Hey, look, a two'fer: 90L (the easternmost AOI)--

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210201236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902012
AL, 90, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 199N, 493W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
A minute after I say the other AOI could get an invest it does and we now have invest 90L.

Also if the 06Z GFS verified at 180-204hrs I would get 3-6 inches of snow. that is unlikely at this time though but it is getting closer to winter.
WHXX01 KWBC 201239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC SAT OCT 20 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20121020 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121020 1200 121021 0000 121021 1200 121022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 72.5W 16.1N 74.4W 16.4N 76.4W 16.4N 78.3W
BAMD 15.5N 72.5W 15.8N 74.1W 16.1N 75.4W 16.2N 76.3W
BAMM 15.5N 72.5W 15.8N 74.2W 15.8N 75.7W 15.7N 77.1W
LBAR 15.5N 72.5W 16.6N 74.3W 17.6N 75.6W 18.5N 76.5W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121022 1200 121023 1200 121024 1200 121025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 80.6W 14.8N 85.0W 13.6N 88.6W 13.0N 91.3W
BAMD 16.3N 77.2W 16.6N 78.5W 17.5N 79.4W 19.8N 80.5W
BAMM 15.3N 78.4W 14.7N 80.5W 14.0N 81.7W 14.7N 80.9W
LBAR 19.2N 77.3W 19.9N 78.5W 21.2N 79.5W 22.6N 80.1W
SHIP 51KTS 56KTS 53KTS 48KTS
DSHP 51KTS 56KTS 53KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 72.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 70.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 69.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thank you Nea. I wonder what the pressure is in this AOI.


Good morning
Interesting few days ahead
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning
Interesting few days ahead
I agree. This one definitely has it's eye on us. Some people may be jumping for joy right about now lol.
SHIPS brings 99L up to a peak of 56kts in 60-72 hours, then weakens it from there as it indicates 30+ knots of shear beyond 4 days.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I agree. This one definitely has it's eye on us. Some people may be jumping for joy right about now lol.


I know what you mean. Eventually a forecast pans out :-)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. While this is highly unlikely to verify, check out the 0z CMC run... it brings future Sandy into the NE as an epic Nor'easter- 956mb in the second image at 204 hours!




that would be the bast thing that ever happened to me in a loooong time!
Anticyclone overhead as well. Nothing to prevent 99L from developing, possibly quite quickly as the genesis of the system is not monsoonal but a Twave.

The early models will show 99L moving WNW and moving over central Cuba. The later models will probably show a movement more towards the NW then back NE as the trough moves in. Timing will be interesting on this system.
BAMM models take 99L generally on a WNW track for next 5 days, while more reliable GFS and Euro models consolidate the center of 99L southeast of Jamaica and move it on a general NNE or NE track beginning day 3.
SSD Floater is up for 99L.

Link
Quoting Grothar:
The early models will show 99L moving WNW and moving over central Cuba. The later models will probably show a movement more towards the NW then back NE as the trough moves in. Timing will be interesting on this system.


Both the Canadian and the Euro stall it out near 80W then swing it to the N over Jamaica.

Easy to see with steering like this. That big weakness may propagate to the East. Depends on the forecast steering which I have not looked at as yet.

As you said, it's all in the timing. Late season track forecasts can be a nightmare at times.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:



LOL


Wont be long now lol
Quoting kmanislander:


Both the Canadian and the Euro stall it out near 80W then swing it to the N over Jamaica.

Easy to see with steering like this. That big weakness may propagate to the East. Depends on the forecast steering which I have not looked at as yet.

As you said, it's all in the timing. Late season track forecasts can be a nightmare at times.



I saw it first! :) I've been tracking the trough and it is really not very useful until we see how strong 99L gets and how fast it moves. Don't you hate these kind of systems?
Experimental higher resolution GFS ensembles, 168 hours:









Link
Quoting Grothar:


I saw it first! :) I've been tracking the trough and it is really not very useful until we see how strong 99L gets and how fast it moves. Don't you hate these kind of systems?


Actually, it's the time of year I hate because these systems can do very unexpected things in the late season. They can also become very potent. Look at the area it will enter in the next 12 hours or so.

Quoting kmanislander:


Actually, it's the time of year I hate because these systems can do very unexpected things in the late season. They can also become very potent. Look at the area it will enter in the next 12 hours or so.



Is that "jet fuel"? :)
99L reminds me a lot of 98L in that it has plenty of convection but needs to consolidate it in order to be classified:



Btw 90L's floater is also up.
Quoting Grothar:


Is that "jet fuel"? :)


Unfortunately yes. If the low closes off over that it could ramp up in short order.
Quoting Grothar:


Is that "jet fuel"? :)

I think "rocket fuel" would be a more accurate description, lol.
I have to head out now. Errands etc but will check in later.
Quoting kmanislander:
I have to head out now. Errands etc but will check in later.
Looking forward to your input.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think "rocket fuel" would be a more accurate description, lol.


I didn't want the blog to get too exicted. :)
Invest 99L its much better organized. (Sandy)
Quoting ces15hurricanes:
Invest 99L its much better organized. (Sandy)
yes sure is getting healty alright
Quoting Grothar:
..GRO looks like we in florida should be watching this one carefully huh
GFS at 120 hours,850 vort.................
Quoting LargoFl:
..GRO looks like we in florida should be watching this one carefully huh


Oh, I'm looking. Anybody wake pottery up?
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, I'm looking. Anybody wake pottery up?
yeah he should be around now with this out there.
GFS at 153 hours,850 vort...........
Africa still pumping out the waves..........
Do we now have 90L???
Good morning/Evening all. Chilly here this morning. Any ideas on which way 99L will go? From what I'm seeing and reading, I'm not sure at all.
NHC moved 99L from the origonal initialized position:

NHC 99L INVEST 20121020 1200 155N 0725W 295 051 1008 1010 0278 13 000 -999 -999 -999 -999 S -999 -999 -999 -999 -9 -99N -999W -999 -999 -999 -999



NHC 99L INVEST 20121020 1200 146N 0728W 280 051 1008 1010 0278 13 111 -999 -999 -999 -999 S -999 -999 -999 -999 -9 -99N -999W -999 -999 -999 -999
99L INVEST


90L INVEST


812

WHXX01 KWBC 201340

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1340 UTC SAT OCT 20 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20121020 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

121020 1200 121021 0000 121021 1200 121022 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.6N 72.8W 15.0N 74.8W 14.9N 76.8W 14.7N 78.7W

BAMD 14.6N 72.8W 14.9N 74.4W 15.1N 75.8W 15.1N 76.8W

BAMM 14.6N 72.8W 14.8N 74.5W 14.7N 76.1W 14.4N 77.4W

LBAR 14.6N 72.8W 15.4N 74.7W 16.2N 76.3W 17.1N 77.6W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

121022 1200 121023 1200 121024 1200 121025 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.9N 80.7W 12.3N 83.9W 10.9N 86.1W 10.3N 87.2W

BAMD 15.1N 77.6W 15.3N 78.4W 16.7N 78.3W 20.1N 78.3W

BAMM 14.0N 78.6W 13.2N 80.2W 12.9N 80.7W 14.6N 78.8W

LBAR 17.8N 78.8W 18.8N 80.4W 20.4N 81.7W 21.9N 82.5W

SHIP 54KTS 62KTS 59KTS 56KTS

DSHP 54KTS 62KTS 59KTS 56KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 72.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 70.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 69.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Do we now have 90L???


We have 99L and 90L. Boy, you people that sleep late miss everything.
Quoting kmanislander:
I have to head out now. Errands etc but will check in later.
Hey Kman So thats what they call playing golf down there....Errands Lol
99L should become a tropical cyclone within 4 days. Its strength is unknown, and timing is a big issue with track. Right now, it appears this is going to be a Cuba/Hispaniola problem, but we know how October storms are. We also have to pay very close to its structure changes after it develops, as there is very high Ocean Heat Content where it will be passing over.

90L is being sheared right now, but winds may relax briefly over the next few days. It will probably end up becoming at least a tropical depression before becoming absorbed into a frontal boundary/extratropical cyclone in 5-6 days.

this would be a great time for Levi to pop in
Hey Gro

So this means we are well beyond a BLOB alert?
Quoting Autistic2:
this would be a great time for Levi to pop in


Agree 100%.
Quoting LargoFl:
Africa still pumping out the waves..........
Yes, and there is a wave with a nice spin, it shows in the visible sat., very low latitude, around 7N, 35W, moving west,...
Quoting LargoFl:
Africa still pumping out the waves..........


Isn't that unusual for this late in the season?
Quoting Grothar:


We have 99L and 90L. Boy, you people that sleep late miss everything.


I'm confused. Is that 20% circle at the NHC 90L? Has it actually been classified as an invest?

99L looks interesting but it has the same disorganized look as the other invests that have formed in that area this year. Another 48 hours should gives s a better idea what may happen but, for right now, I'm not impressed.
Quoting AussieStorm:

They have fooled with cloud seeding for the Edwards Aquifer area in Texas (near San Antonio.

Here's the American Meteorological Society's position on cloud seeding.
Quoting sar2401:


I'm confused. Is that 20% circle at the NHC 90L? Has it actually been classified as an invest?

99L looks interesting but it has the same disorganized look as the other invests that have formed in that area this year. Another 48 hours should gives s a better idea what may happen but, for right now, I'm not impressed.

99L is the Caribbean disturbance at 30% and 90L is the Central Atlantic wave at 20%.

99L has been gradually improving in organization since yesterday. I don't think it will follow the same fate as Isaac and Ernesto. Wind shear is lower and trade winds are slower.
Morning all! I see we have 99L and 90L. Both decent. Sandy and Tony? We'll see. Active times ahead.


Here's last nights Euro run, tropical storm in the Central Caribbean. I don't buy though what it does beyond this point, for some reason the Euro wants to make 99L into a trough.


The GFS wants to split this system in two, which also doesn't make much sense to me. I think the CMC might have the best handle on this, but it's way overaggressive and makes it a major hurricane. SHIPS shows a good environment for intesnification the next few days, and the CIMSS shows an anti-cyclone developing over 99L.
I see we now have 99L! It continues to improve on visible satellite and with a fairly low wind shear environment and that nice warm water below, we may have something quite interesting in a couple days. These later season storms which form in the Caribbean can be troublesome.
Quoting sar2401:


I'm confused. Is that 20% circle at the NHC 90L? Has it actually been classified as an invest?

99L looks interesting but it has the same disorganized look as the other invests that have formed in that area this year. Another 48 hours should gives s a better idea what may happen but, for right now, I'm not impressed.


An invest doesn't necessarily mean it is going to turn into a storm. They are declared invests for many different reasons. They assist in the High Seas forecast to make military and civilian ships aware of a disturbance which may possible develop. Cruise ships need warning in order to avoid bad weather and prepare in the event they have to move ships quickly out of the way of a developing storm system. It takes hours and days of planning for them to put plans into place. An invest does not have to look like a CAT 5 in order for it to be assigned a number. In the case of 99L it will be in a favorable area for some further development. The area in the Caribbean has been know for an area of rapid development. Wilma for instance, went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 in about 24 hours.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

99L is the Caribbean disturbance at 30% and 90L is the Central Atlantic wave at 20%.

99L has been gradually improving in organization since yesterday. I don't think it will follow the same fate as Isaac and Ernesto. Wind shear is lower and trade winds are slower.


I saw the ATCF message on 90L - I just can't find it actually classified as an invest yet by the NHC.

99L certainly has less hostile conditions than Ernesto, but it's interacting with too much land and still has to tighten up and develop a closed circulation. Too early to tell, of course, but it sure doesn't look something that's going to blow up overnight. If it indeed does develop into a tropical storm, it looks like Central America may be the target.
It appears we got ourselves 99L and 90L this morning. Although they're a little ragged and disorganized as of right now, I believe both will end up becoming tropical cyclones over the next few days... 99L reminds me of all those typical type systems for this time of year, which leads me to believe it will form, and 90L is a type of system I've seen a time or two, and really thing that 90L's development will depend on is how much the shear drops before being absorbed.

Overall.
99L has a 70% chance of becoming a TC
90L has a 60% chance of becoming a TC
Recon will be ready for 99L. First mission will be on Sunday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 20 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-154

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 21/2100Z A. 22/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 02EEA INVEST
C. 21/1630Z C. 22/0730Z
D. 16.0N 77.0W D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 21/2030Z TO 21/2330Z E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 12 HOUR FIXES
AT 23/0000Z NEAR 16.0N 79.0W IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.

027

WHXX01 KWBC 201448

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1448 UTC SAT OCT 20 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20121020 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

121020 1200 121021 0000 121021 1200 121022 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.8N 46.8W 20.3N 48.1W 20.6N 49.3W 21.1N 50.6W

BAMD 19.8N 46.8W 21.5N 47.4W 22.4N 48.2W 22.9N 49.7W

BAMM 19.8N 46.8W 21.0N 47.7W 21.7N 48.6W 22.3N 50.0W

LBAR 19.8N 46.8W 20.9N 47.2W 21.6N 47.4W 22.1N 47.3W

SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 44KTS

DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 44KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

121022 1200 121023 1200 121024 1200 121025 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.0N 52.1W 24.2N 54.4W 25.5N 55.8W 26.2N 56.9W

BAMD 23.6N 51.5W 25.6N 52.1W 28.8N 47.9W 33.1N 37.4W

BAMM 23.2N 51.7W 25.5N 53.4W 27.4N 52.2W 29.8N 46.1W

LBAR 22.9N 47.2W 25.2N 46.2W 29.0N 42.1W 32.2N 31.6W

SHIP 51KTS 58KTS 57KTS 50KTS

DSHP 51KTS 58KTS 57KTS 50KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 45.6W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 18.5N LONM24 = 43.8W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Quoting Grothar:


An invest doesn't necessarily mean it is going to turn into a storm. They are declared invests for many different reasons. They assist in the High Seas forecast to make military and civilian ships aware of a disturbance which may possible develop. Cruise ships need warning in order to avoid bad weather and prepare in the event they have to move ships quickly out of the way of a developing storm system. It takes hours and days of planning for them to put plans into place. An invest does not have to look like a CAT 5 in order for it to be assigned a number. In the case of 99L it will be in a favorable area for some further development. The area in the Caribbean has been know for an area of rapid development. Wilma for instance, went from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5 in about 24 hours.


I understand about invests. Wilma started out as a TD further west than 99L. Her convection was much deeper, and she had a good anticyclone over her, which aided with the RI. It was also 2005, when the atmosphere seemed primed to develop almost any low in the central and western Caribbean into a hurricane. I'm not saying that 99L doesn't have potential but, given the events of this year, I can't see a Wilma type scenario. I still believe that, should 99L develop, Central America is more at risk than areas further north.

Edit: I'm hoping the good doctor will have a new blog shortly and give us his thoughts.
99L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
15.25N/71.89W
Quoting sar2401:


I understand about invests. Wilma started out as a TD further west than 99L. Her convection was much deeper, and she had a good anticyclone over her, which aided with the RI. It was also 2005, when the atmosphere seemed primed to develop almost any low in the central and western Caribbean into a hurricane. I'm not saying that 99L doesn't have potential but, given the events of this year, I can't see a Wilma type scenario. I still believe that, should 99L develop, Central America is more at risk than areas further north.

Edit: I'm hoping the good doctor will have a new blog shortly and give us his thoughts.

good doctor?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

good doctor?

Lol, Dr. Masters.
if 90L fourms will it be a TS or a STS?
sar we get our deep convection shorly as the sun rises at 2 it will bubble just for you


lol
Quoting Tazmanian:
if 90L fourms will it be a TS or a STS?

Subtropical.
Beautiful Saturday Morning here!

I personally dont like the CMC version of future events..

I think 99L is consolidating farther west than it's supposed to be right now.

It may just be the wave axis though.

it looks to be an active end to october. would not be surprise to have 91L in the eatl in the near future. area of convection se of the cape verde looks very interesting,at the moment.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think 99L is consolidating farther west than it's supposed to be right now.



If it forms more west it may miss the trough and not get lifted to the North or Northeast.
6z GFS Ensembles





Looks like 90L is breaking in half.




Convection growing in 99L


99L looks to have a LLCC but the upper atmosphere is not spinning... yet


99L is the one we need to watch. Looks a much better system.
AL, 90, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 198N, 468W, 30, 1012, DB
730. 7544
Quoting Grothar:


hmm could this be the start of the fl ghost strom the gfs was showing a couple of days ago ?
wow 18 minutes between post. Either the site is really slow or experiencing technical difficulties.
looks like our last hurrah round of storms are finally coming into play.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
wow 18 minutes between post. Either the site is really slow or experiencing technical difficulties.
looks like our last hurrah round of storms are finally coming into play.

For all we know we could have 8 more storms after this point.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Looks like 90L is breaking in half.




Convection growing in 99L


99L looks to have a LLCC but the upper atmosphere is not spinning... yet


99L is the one we need to watch. Looks a much better system.

Agreed. But it's not to go unsaid that 90L still might have a shot at becoming a storm, it just may take longer to get going...

My thoughts:
99L = TS/CAT 1 Sandy
90L = STS/TS Tony
Quoting stormchaser19:


Very interesting feature to SE of Jamaica. 99L continues to improve in satellite presentation and its in a favorable environment with the support of a strengthening anticyclone could help it spin up quicker and gain some latitude in the process. Although, we haven't had any close to home storm since Issac it obvious that the upper level atmosphere is more favorable than it was for previous caribbean storms so the gulf coast should watch it especially FL.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I think the chances of 99L developing are high. It has a favorable environment, unlike Ernesto and Isaac, to strengthen and develop further. It will be an interesting week with 99L and 90L. 99L is already looking good this afternoon and should become a TD in a few days.

If both 99 and 90L form, (which I think has a 50% chance of happening) we will have had five storms form in October. (Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, plus Nadine if you count active systems) We could easily reach Alpha if the increased late-season activity continues.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For all we know we could have 8 more storms after this point.

true dat... I think the odds are that we're getting close to the end though. Just my take. My thinking is what looks like the early onset of fall/winter will play largely into that. JMO/hope
Quoting kmanislander:
As you said, it's all in the timing. Late season track forecasts can be a nightmare at times.


Will it be trick, or ... ?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

For all we know we could have 8 more storms after this point.
I say we could have 2 more after this point. Naming list exhuastion is not out of the realm of possibility at his point! If both invests form that would put us with about 5 weeks left in the season and only 2 named storms to knock out.