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Hurricane Paul pounding Baja; Hurricane Rafael brushing Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Hurricane Paul put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, topping out as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds at 2 pm PDT on Monday. Paul has weakened some this morning, due to high wind shear of 30 knots, but remains a potent Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds as it heads towards landfall this afternoon on the Baja Mexico coast. The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor made a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 2 am PDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. Four hours later, at 6 am PDT, the ship was still measuring 54 mph winds, at point about 140 miles east of the eye and 40 miles northwest of the Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 100 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds. If you know of a passenger who was on the ship, tell them to upload a wunderphoto and a report of what is was like! The view from the deck webcam shows that not too many passengers were out taking wunderphotos this morning, though.

Since the region of coast where Paul will hit is very sparsely populated, heavy rains will be the main threat from the storm. Cabo San Lucas has picked up 2.23" of rain from Paul as of 7 am PDT this morning, and San Jose Del Cabo picked up 2.00". Neither city is expected to get tropical storm-force winds from Paul, according to the latest wind probability forecast from NHC. Paul's formation brings this year's tally in the Eastern Pacific to 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Paul taken at 2:15 pm EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Paul was peaking in intensity--a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Rafael becomes a hurricane
Hurricane Rafael became the ninth hurricane of this busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday afternoon. Data from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite loops show that Rafael is holding its own against high wind shear near 30 knots. Rafael has even managed to intensify slightly this morning, to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, as it heads north-northeast on a path that is expected to take the center about 140 miles east of Bermuda near 8 pm EDT this Tuesday night. Images from the Bermuda radar show that the outer spiral bands of Rafael have reached the island, and very heavy rains lie just to Bermuda's south. Wind shear is expected to increase to an extremely high 40 knots on Wednesday, which should be able to weaken Rafael to a tropical storm. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 44% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, putting the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael taken at 11:55 am EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Rafael was intensifying, with top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Possible Caribbean development next week
Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.


Figure 3. I couldn't resist reposting this image: a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8, 2012, sparking a dramatic display of Northern Lights that lasted for several days. The aurora combined with clouds to create this remarkable scene over Lekangsund, Norway, on Oct. 10, 2012, as captured by Hugo Løhre. Larger versions of the image are available at nasa.gov.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneRafael @ 16Oct.12pm
15Oct.12pm 22.6n65.6w 65knots(75mph)120km/h 983millibars TropicalStorm
15Oct.06pm 23.6n65.8w 70knots(81mph)130km/h 980millibars TropicalStorm
16Oct.12am 24.6n65.6w 80knots(92mph)148km/h 974millibars Hurricane
16Oct.06am 25.9n65.3w 80knots(92mph)148km/h 972millibars Hurricane
16Oct.12pm 27.3n65.0w 75knots(86mph)139km/h 970millibars Hurricane

BDA-Bermuda :: NGD-Anegada

The longest line is a straightline projection through Rafael's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda.

16Oct.12pm -- HurricaneRafael was heading for a 17Oct.09:11amGMT passage 46miles(74kilometres)E-ESEast of Bermuda in ~18hours

Copy&paste ngd, bda, 22.6n65.6w-23.6n65.8w, 23.6n65.8w-24.6n65.6w, 24.6n65.6w-25.9n65.3w, 25.9n65.3w-27.3n65.0w, 25.9n65.3w-32.2374n63.8797W, 32.3675n64.6475w-32.2374n63.8797w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
thanks doc morning all looks like the fl ghost strom is still in play with a wilma track
Thanks Dr Masters. Ramsdis floater already focused in SW Caribbean.

Link
Great shot of the aurora Dr. Masters. Here is an image of the sun showing the CME ejecting the particles that caused the Aurora taken by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. The CME took place on Oct 5th and particles hit our atmosphere three days later.

CMC 240HR!
Will the storm that may strike Florida in 10 days or so be called Sandy ,or Tony , because I see a big blob between Rafael and Africa ,is that Sandy , if the storm that might strike Florida is Tony how bad do you think it is going to be , a cat 3,4,5 the way the Gfs looks it is going to be a very strong storm , and where do you think it will strike from the panhandle to Jacksonville , and go up the east coast of the USA , not out to sea !
Quoting 1441114:
Will the storm that may strike Florida in 10 days or so be called Sandy ,or Tony , because I see a big blob between Rafael and Africa ,is that Sandy , if the storm that might strike Florida is Tony how bad do you think it is going to be , a cat 3,4,5 the way the Gfs looks it is going to be a very strong storm , and where do you think it will strike from the panhandle to Jacksonville , and go up the east coast of the USA , not out to sea !


Wait ten days and you will know.
11. 7544
hmm could we get 99l soon in the atl.
With the MJO forecasted to strengthen but stay at phase 1(not phase 8), I'm thinking models will trend eastwards with the storm more towards Hispaniola/Purto Rico imo. But the Euro shows another major east conus trough in about 10 days or so. So we'll see.
Link
The second part of Rafael in the island
wow that picture of the northern lights is pretty amazing
Quoting 1441114:
Will the storm that may strike Florida in 10 days or so be called Sandy ,or Tony , because I see a big blob between Rafael and Africa ,is that Sandy , if the storm that might strike Florida is Tony how bad do you think it is going to be , a cat 3,4,5 the way the Gfs looks it is going to be a very strong storm , and where do you think it will strike from the panhandle to Jacksonville , and go up the east coast of the USA , not out to sea !


Good Lord! We've got a named Cat 3,4,5 prediction on a storm that doesn't even exist!
12Z GFS is now coming out!
Cat.6! Cat.6!! I got dibs on Cat.6!!!
Thank you Dr. Masters
GFS at 39 hours.....................
Anyone see that the forecast tracks for Paul and Prapiroon are basically a mirror of each other?


Nice picture of the Aurora, but I have never heard of Lekangsund. Since I lived there a good part of my younger years, I wonder where it is. Since Norway has two languages, maybe they spell it differently.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
The Aurora is beautiful. Thanks Dr Masters.
Thanks Jeff, great pic!...
Quoting Grothar:
Nice picture of the Aurora, but I have never heard of Lekangsund. Since I lived there a good part of my younger years, I wonder where it is. Since Norway has two languages, maybe they spell it differently.




http://www.meteovista.co.uk/Europe/Norway/Lekangs und/4325219
12z gfs start hr 96 end hr 300


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

COASTAL FLOODING...TIDE LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK MAINLY DUE TO ASTRONOMICAL EFFECTS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT TIDES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME INUNDATION OF
SALTWATER IN THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT LEAST AROUND THE TIMES OF THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
When you guys post the model runs, can you post the hours as well too? the fine print is hard to read for these old eyes over here..
GEFS model spread at 306 hours....................
46. 7544
thanks for the play by play keeper good job
new GFS at 153 hours.........................
beautiful clear day here by me,no rain in sight..........
Bermuda Radar.................
Hey WIllbur , I just ask Dr. Masters a theory , not a statement , there is a difference , if you want stupidity how about a Cat 20 , well GOOD LORD ! To that , LOL .
Other Halloween Hurricane in south fla??? I already ate all of the food from Issac...
228HR!!
This chart shows arctic sea ice anomaly is still widening. The chart shows the difference between a "normal" year and actual conditions. Sea ice reached a record low in September and has started to re form, but ice is not recovering as fast as usual, and this may spell trouble for next summer.

Wow, Rafael is quite impressive in the face of 30kts of shear.
The picture of the Northern Lights reminds me of my time in Finland. The winter 2001/2 was also quite active so I saw the Northern lights for many nights.

I just checked the website of the Free University of Berlin for the current names of lows. Tavinia is going to drench us in the UK in the next days. While doing so, I noticed that they were tracking Nadine for over a week, first as a tropical system and then over Central Europe as a post-tropical storm for three days:

Nadine appears on the map on September 29


October 4: Final day as a tropical system.


Ex-Nadine on October 5


Now a full fledged frontal system which even gets a proper red name like the other lows on the map.


Quoting dolphingalrules:
Other Halloween Hurricane in south fla??? I already ate all of the food from Issac...

There are some places that still have elevated water levels in South Florida from Isaac
continued from previous post:


Located over France and Germany on October 7 and then moving off towards the East on October 8:



In other words, Nadine spent 10 days around and three directly over Europe and dumped a lot of rain on Western and Central Europe. With increasing moisture in the atmosphere and a warmer than usual September I think we'll have to get used to picking up former tropical systems. I can recall bad winter storms from my childhood but those extremely wet systems from the tropics seem to have increased over the last decade.
Latest Gfs good news for Fla. Looks more like a TD and it goes elsewhere.
Looks like the storm in 10 days is another recurver. Moving on.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 161420
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

.UPDATE...
RATHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS
MOVING SOUTH NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOME OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S FAR NORTH TO MID 50S CENTRAL...BUT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH. OVERALL MAINLY SUNNY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS IN
THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
PRESENT MARINE FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR
LATE MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 68 79 70 / 0 10 40 10
FMY 88 71 84 69 / 0 10 50 20
GIF 86 67 80 66 / 0 10 40 10
SRQ 86 67 79 71 / 0 10 50 10
BKV 85 61 79 62 / 0 10 40 10
SPG 85 72 78 72 / 0 10 50 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON




78. 7544
gfs is flip floping but thats to be expected thisfar out as it did a couple of days ago then took it back to so fl time will tell with lots more runs to come
GFS really made a big change since the 006Z

Paul at Baja

Quoting Matt1989:
Looks like the storm in 10 days is another recurver. Moving on.
Too early to say.
Quoting Grothar:


kinda, sorta, blobbish like feature?
Quoting unknowncomic:
Latest Gfs good news for Fla. Looks more like a TD and it goes elsewhere.


WAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYY too early to tell where the potential system will go but this time of year all depends on the inevitable cold front that will be approaching the coast. "IF" something develops it will most certainly go north until the front sweeps it east.... the timing (as usual) will determine the threat. BOTTOM LINE.... watch the weather next week
Quoting 954FtLCane:


kinda, sorta, blobbish like feature?


What you people don't know about blobs...... :)
Quoting Grothar:
GFS really made a big change since the 006Z

Sandy and Tony again.
Hey that's ten days from now , it's way to early to believe the Gfs , we will get a trick or we will get a treat ! The Gfs the scary trickster ! Happy Halloween . LOL !
Quoting wxmod:
This chart shows arctic sea ice anomaly is still widening. The chart shows the difference between a "normal" year and actual conditions. Sea ice reached a record low in September and has started to re form, but ice is not recovering as fast as usual, and this may spell trouble for next summer.



There is another Arctic storm raging up there right now too.
GULF STREAM MOVED 125 MILES NORTH IN 2011

The core of the Gulf Stream diverted as much as 125 miles to the north of its average position last year.

Tue Oct 16, 2012 09:42 AM ET
Content provided by Douglas Main, OurAmazingPlanet

Last fall, fishermen in the Northeast United States noticed stronger currents and higher water temperatures than usual, so they tapped scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts to help them find out what was going on.


A study by the scientists, published recently in the journal Scientific Reports, suggests the cause was a change in the direction of the Gulf Stream, the current that ferries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Atlantic and along the U.S. East Coast. The scientists found that the center, or core, of the Gulf Stream was diverted as much as 125 miles (200 kilometers) to the north of its average position, according to a WHOI statement.

In late October 2011, temperatures increased at two deep-water sensors attached to lobster traps off Nantucket by as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (6.7 degrees Celsius) over the course of several days. That pushed water temperatures above 64 F (18 C), which is very unusual in the waters off southern New England for that time of year.  It's also 4 F (2 C) higher than temperatures have been at one of these locations in the last decade, said study author and WHOI researcher Glen Gawarkiewicz.
What is the black spot on that MODIS shot of PAUL that Masters left us in the entry?
Quoting Grothar:
GFS really made a big change since the 006Z

That's what happens with computer models 200+ hours out....
GFS at 240 hours......it still insists some is going to develop........................................... ....
Thanks for the picture, Dr. Masters. It just became my new wallpaper.
That black spot must be Isle Sacorro.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
That's what happens with computer models 200+ hours out....


Agree but it is something to look at. There is enough model support and climatology says that it is the right spot for us to keep and eye on.
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 240 hours......it still insists some is going to develop........................................... ....
still way off but im watching to see IF this does develop..if it does the GFS gets a high 5 for being Right way way out in time..seems the new upgrade it got really works.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
GULF STREAM MOVED 125 MILES NORTH IN 2011

The core of the Gulf Stream diverted as much as 125 miles to the north of its average position last year.

Tue Oct 16, 2012 09:42 AM ET
Content provided by Douglas Main, OurAmazingPlanet

Last fall, fishermen in the Northeast United States noticed stronger currents and higher water temperatures than usual, so they tapped scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts to help them find out what was going on.


A study by the scientists, published recently in the journal Scientific Reports, suggests the cause was a change in the direction of the Gulf Stream, the current that ferries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Atlantic and along the U.S. East Coast. The scientists found that the center, or core, of the Gulf Stream was diverted as much as 125 miles (200 kilometers) to the north of its average position, according to a WHOI statement.

In late October 2011, temperatures increased at two deep-water sensors attached to lobster traps off Nantucket by as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (6.7 degrees Celsius) over the course of several days. That pushed water temperatures above 64 F (18 C), which is very unusual in the waters off southern New England for that time of year. It's also 4 F (2 C) higher than temperatures have been at one of these locations in the last decade, said study author and WHOI researcher Glen Gawarkiewicz.


Makes sense, as the ice melts faster up there because of that, that is a significant jump north
no rain at all today it seems.......
Quoting Skyepony:
That black spot must be Isle Sacorro.


It may be Clarion Island, which is a bit North of Sacorro
"are you ready kids?" aye ye captain!..I cant hear you!"

Sandy and Tony..240 hour frame on 12Z Euro

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GOLDWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO ATHENS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Ocean currents responsible for arctic sea ice loss, I assume ocean currents don't stay the same for centuries, they change and change course.
Tweets from Joe B. of Weatherbell

Winter in far east looks to be another cold beast. PDO is now cold and like 1950, China, Korea Japan, feel the effects

Much of europe to turn cold for November too.. N Hemisphere in for a wild winter this year Global warming will turn to climate change

Quoting Grothar:


What you people don't know about blobs...... :)


oh my. I a-blob-ogize.
76. Yup, a recurve right into Florida.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


It may be Clarion Island, which is a bit North of Sacorro


My guess would be Clarion Island as well. Looking at Google maps it's SW of the southern tip of the baha whereas the Isle of Sacorro is more SSW.
Quoting 954FtLCane:


oh my. I a-blob-ogize.


No bloblem. lol
You guys make way too big of assumptions sometimes, the models are going to shift when it comes to intensity. Going from a hurricane to TS is poor consistency. Relax, odds are it will probably happen as we have a huge MJO pulse coming through, classic monsoonal development.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


It may be Clarion Island, which is a bit North of Sacorro


The automated weather station on Clarion Island was mentioned in Mondays 11am advisory
The 12z GFS is actually following suit of the Euro where it had it going east of Florida since the 00z run..
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
GULF STREAM MOVED 125 MILES NORTH IN 2011

The core of the Gulf Stream diverted as much as 125 miles to the north of its average position last year.

Tue Oct 16, 2012 09:42 AM ET
Content provided by Douglas Main, OurAmazingPlanet

Last fall, fishermen in the Northeast United States noticed stronger currents and higher water temperatures than usual, so they tapped scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts to help them find out what was going on.


A study by the scientists, published recently in the journal Scientific Reports, suggests the cause was a change in the direction of the Gulf Stream, the current that ferries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Atlantic and along the U.S. East Coast. The scientists found that the center, or core, of the Gulf Stream was diverted as much as 125 miles (200 kilometers) to the north of its average position, according to a WHOI statement.

In late October 2011, temperatures increased at two deep-water sensors attached to lobster traps off Nantucket by as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (6.7 degrees Celsius) over the course of several days. That pushed water temperatures above 64 F (18 C), which is very unusual in the waters off southern New England for that time of year.  It's also 4 F (2 C) higher than temperatures have been at one of these locations in the last decade, said study author and WHOI researcher Glen Gawarkiewicz.
We here in the Florida Keys know that the Gulfstream shifts position. Sometimes it is close to shore and sometimes further offshore. You can see the color change in the water when you go out there. After reading the article, it appears that the Gulfstream starts turning East more southerly than I thought. Maybe the glacier and artic melt is causing this? I just hope it does not stop running altogether.
Quoting kwgirl:
I just hope it does not stop running altogether.
You're not alone with that hope; such a cessation would be truly catastrophic indeed...
12z Euro starts at 120 hours.

SST's NE

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

PRC047-051-135-137-143-145-162030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0386.121016T1838Z-121016T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
238 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 237 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA...INCLUDING THE VEGA BAJA AREA. THESE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6639 1849 6633 1848 6629 1849 6625
1848 6625 1835 6627 1834 6636 1850 6640
1851 6639

$$

AAS
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

PRC031-033-061-087-127-161915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0385.121016T1821Z-121016T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-LOIZA PR-
221 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...CAROLINA...CATANO AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 315 PM AST

* AT 210 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 315 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6595 1843 6594 1839 6600 1839 6607
1845 6612 1846 6612 1847 6604 1845 6602
1847 6598

$$

FIGUEROA
12Z 216HR!
Good afternoon everyone. There's still a lot of disagreement on the models right now but the important thing to realize at this point is that even though solutions change on a run to run basis, they are at least consistent in showing something forming in 8-10 days. Honestly the 12z GFS solution seems very possible to me, I think it's very possible we see a storm develop and recurve before it reaches the US.
Well, Rafael has been pretty interesting in the N Leewards :) I finally got the rain I have been waiting for a loooooong time... 8inches in 48 hours. Really loved the OMINOUS DRAK skies when the center moved close saturday afternoon through sunday afternoon. I got my fix, but wouldn't say NO TO SOMETHING ELSE LATER IN THE MONTH AND IN NOVEMBER LOL.
12z Euro at 240 hours.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z 216HR!
looks like rain for me.
I smell a storm coming my way next week/end

Quoting CaribBoy:
Well, Rafael has been pretty interesting in the N Leewards :) I finally got the rain I have been waiting for a loooooong time... 8inches in 48 hours. Really loved the OMINOUS DRAK skies when the center moved close saturday afternoon through sunday afternoon. I got my fix, but wouldn't say NO TO SOMETHING ELSE LATER IN THE MONTH AND IN NOVEMBER LOL.


hey caribstorm I hope you enjoyed this hurricane ex TS when it came to you
Quoting luvtogolf:
Tweets from Joe B. of Weatherbell

Winter in far east looks to be another cold beast. PDO is now cold and like 1950, China, Korea Japan, feel the effects

Much of europe to turn cold for November too.. N Hemisphere in for a wild winter this year Global warming will turn to climate change



Joe Bastardi is a lunatic... Steroids have made him crazy.
The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...


Oh my. TWC will not be the same as when they started. My best viewing times were when John Hope was doing the Tropical Updates.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I smell a storm coming my way next week/end



hey caribstorm I hope you enjoyed this hurricane ex TS when it came to you


Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

I hope the W Carib storm won't be a Wilma though lol.
I smell a storm coming my way next week/end

Quoting CaribBoy:
Well, Rafael has been pretty interesting in the N Leewards :) I finally got the rain I have been waiting for a loooooong time... 8inches in 48 hours. Really loved the OMINOUS DRAK skies when the center moved close saturday afternoon through sunday afternoon. I got my fix, but wouldn't say NO TO SOMETHING ELSE LATER IN THE MONTH AND IN NOVEMBER LOL.


hey caribstorm I hope you enjoyed this hurricane ex TS when it came to you
Next week's Southern U.S. warmup is intensifying a bit according to the CPC:

CPC
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

I hope the W Carib storm won't be a Wilma though lol.


yeah cool

hey you never know it could be another Hurricane Paloma

also sorry about 2x posting I'm working off my PS3
I imagine that its almost impossible to get an Anna like the one of 1961 track.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yeah cool

hey you never know it could be another Hurricane Paloma

also sorry about 2x posting I'm working off my PS3


Lol I'm confident you will monitor the weather carefully.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Well, Rafael has been pretty interesting in the N Leewards :) I finally got the rain I have been waiting for a loooooong time... 8inches in 48 hours. Really loved the OMINOUS DRAK skies when the center moved close saturday afternoon through sunday afternoon. I got my fix, but wouldn't say NO TO SOMETHING ELSE LATER IN THE MONTH AND IN NOVEMBER LOL.


YAY finally! :)
135. wxmod
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...
ohhhh Adam Berg was my favorite in there.
137. VR46L
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

I hope the W Carib storm won't be a Wilma though lol.


I am honestly delighted for you ...you wanted it so much .:)
Quoting VR46L:


I am honestly delighted for you ...you wanted it so much .:)


Now let's make JFV happy with a Miami hit from the SW Carib storm yet to be born. I'm only kidding.


It may only be a blob providing lots of rain.
Anyone done a study, is the 10 to 15 day forecast any better than the Farmer's Almanac?
140. wxmod

This is on Greenland's west shore about half way up. Still melting?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Next week's Southern U.S. warmup is intensifying a bit according to the CPC:

CPC


That will not be good. I am back in drought even though drought monitor map not showing it, must be on a micro scale then. Because I noticed the detention ponds down a foot or more which is a tale tell sign, grass is stressed like summer time which is crazy for middle of October (watered the front yard last evening which is unheard of in October, never water in October)and crape myrtles are drooping as if during summer time.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Latest Gfs good news for Fla. Looks more like a TD and it goes elsewhere.


....and of course we will take one model run this far out as gospel with regard to track and intensity.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PATCHY FROST EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 81...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...PATCHY
FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
DRAINAGES.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-034-035-045-046-WV Z042>045-170345-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FR.Y.0011.121017T0800Z-121017T1300Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOME RY-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHER ST-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBR IER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...
PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLA CKSBURG...
NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...
SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...
LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...
UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...DEEPER VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81...AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

* TIMING...FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO FROST MAY BE
KILLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
Not sure what the hell is going on, but if we don't get rains this fall/winter/spring, it's gonna be doom for TX again
I posted this anomaly chart last week. Look at those temperatures in the North. I've never seen that before.

Quoting Grothar:
I posted this anomaly chart last week. Look at those temperatures in the North. I've never seen that before.



Been said the gulf stream has shifted some 125 miles north last year into this year
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...

grrrrrrr liked morrow :(
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Oh my. TWC will not be the same as when they started. My best viewing times were when John Hope was doing the Tropical Updates.


I still miss Father Benito Viñes.
Quoting Skyepony:
What is the black spot on that MODIS shot of PAUL that Masters left us in the entry?

"They call that one Muad'Dib".
Quoting RitaEvac:


Been said the gulf stream has shifted some 125 miles north last year into this year


That is quite a shift. Pretty soon they will be able to grow palm trees on Long Island.
Quoting Grothar:
I posted this anomaly chart last week. Look at those temperatures in the North. I've never seen that before.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Anyone done a study, is the 10 to 15 day forecast any better than the Farmer's Almanac?


I'm sure that many studies are done on the accuracy of 10-15 day forecasts (but not against the Almanac:))

Having said that, I don't pay any attention to the models until I see consistency at 7 days.
Quoting Thrawst:
I can tell somebody is on vacation this week.... lol

Wish I could say I had another day off...

And I am very glad that Rafe and Paul are far away from the Bahamas....

The track Paul is taking over Baja is IMO just about as bad as it gets... the core is over land, meaning severe rainfall events over the normally desert-like mountainous spine of the peninsula, meaning potential for flash flooding in valleys and ravines is very high. When you add in the fact that many of the human settlements are in those valleys and ravines, the potential for disaster skyrockets.

I sure hope everybody is able to stay safe there over the next 24 - 36 hours...
Thanks for the great update on Hurricane Paul, Dr. Masters.

Many fishing villages along hundreds of miles of spectacular coastline are in my prayers...villages like San Juanito, Guerro Niegro, as well as the municipal seat of Ciudad Constitution...further inland. These towns look like they will bear the brunt of Paul as he climbs the Baja Penninsula. Let's hope the government of Mexico is as quick to help rebuild these beautiful coastline towns as quickly as they rebuild tourist areas like Cabo, Cozumel, and Cancun...to name a few.
From HPC:

THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ MEANDERS EAST INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A LOW IS TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 54-60 HRS...WITH CIRCULATION FORECAST
TO DRAW THE ITCZ NORTH INTO THE BASIN LATER IN THE CYCLE.

Link
Rafael is developing an eye but its low-level and mid-level centers are significantly misaligned.

That is a pretty scary map Grothar. If it's able to punch all the way thru the arctic. I guess it's anyone's prediction as to the global weather effects. Maybe not Jurassic Park but some big changes. Talk about a lot of water vapor in the air.
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

I hope the W Carib storm won't be a Wilma though lol.


I'm so happy for you. The rains came and the winds did no significant damage. Can't ask for more than that!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Brian McNoldy posted an image comparing the average model error for all four cycles of the GFS. Contrary to popular belief, the 06z and 18z runs are not all that unreliable. In fact, there is barely any difference.

True, but this out to day 5. We start noticing the real differences between the cycles in the long range, or beyond 5 days. After 5 days, model performance is known to significantly degrade.

Take a look at the ECMWF, our most reliable model, for example. Here is graph for the 500hPa anomaly correlation for the past 30 years. Blue is day 3, red is day 5, green is day 7 and yellow is day 10. Notice by day five we are still at 90%, but go out just two more days and we are at 75%. Go out three more days and its at 45%.

Quoting DrMickey:

"They call that one Muad'Dib".


L...O...L...
Quoting TomTaylor:
True, but this out to day 5. We start noticing the real differences between the cycles in the long range, or beyond 5 days. After 5 days, model performance is known to significantly degrade.

Take a look at the ECMWF, our most reliable model, for example. Here is graph for the 500hPa anomaly correlation for the past 30 years. Blue is day 3, red is day 5, green is day 7 and yellow is day 10. Notice by day five we are still at 90%, but go out just two more days and we are at 75%. Go out three more days and its at 45%.



i see mid to long term getting worse in recent years!
jk its all just noise.
Quoting Grothar:


That is quite a shift. Pretty soon they will be able to grow palm trees on Long Island.
Why not? I saw palm trees in Dunoon Scotland, well, along the riverside back in 1976/1977. Amazed me. They were dwarf date trees.
Quoting TomTaylor:
True, but this out to day 5. We start noticing the real differences between the cycles in the long range, or beyond 5 days. After 5 days, model performance is known to significantly degrade.

Take a look at the ECMWF, our most reliable model, for example. Here is graph for the 500hPa anomaly correlation for the past 30 years. Blue is day 3, red is day 5, green is day 7 and yellow is day 10. Notice by day five we are still at 90%, but go out just two more days and we are at 75%. Go out three more days and its at 45%.


This is true, but I was referring to each individual cycle of the GFS within 120 hours (wasn't really trying to correlate it to the long range).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rafael is developing an eye but its low-level and mid-level centers are significantly misaligned.



Is that the LLC that is nearly exposed? If it is then the convection might be on the verge of completely dissipating.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Next week's Southern U.S. warmup is intensifying a bit according to the CPC:


I take the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks with a grain of salt. They change like the wind. Just yesterday or the day prior it represented below average temps for a good portion of the nation east of the MS river. But, for the time being, it looks toasty for the CONUS with the exception of the Pac. NW.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Rafael
Niiiiice....

Quoting Grothar:
I posted this anomaly chart last week. Look at those temperatures in the North. I've never seen that before.

That anomaly has been getting bigger every year. At this rate the idea of a cat 3 / 4 type major all the way to the New England coast will become more of a decadal thing instead of a once per century thing...

Quoting yqt1001:


Is that the LLC that is nearly exposed? If it is then the convection might be on the verge of completely dissipating.

My unprofessional depiction of Rafael.

Good afternoon everyone, I see the models still show development and Rafael has weakened back to 85mph.
Ok, signing out for now... will get online later if the presidential debate coverage does not consume me.... lol
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA THIS EVENING...
5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 16
Location: 30.6°N 63.8°W
Moving: NNE at 26 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph


HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY TRANSITIONED FROM A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO AN EYE PATTERN...WITH A RECENT MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWING A SOLID INNER CORE. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SOME
STRENGTHENING...BUT THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS
REPORTED THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAD COME DOWN A BIT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PLANE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 75 KT...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN
AVERAGE GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND. A NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL BE
IN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR ANOTHER LOOK AT THE INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET DUE TO GRADUALLY
COOLING WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE LGEM MODEL BUT A BIT BELOW
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN 24-36H DUE TO INTERACTION OF RAFAEL WITH A COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING A BIT LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...BUT A LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 020/23.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO PREDICTED STEERING FLOW WITH THE
HURRICANE MOVING BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND TO MOVE FASTER. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK...AND EVEN THE SPEED
DIFFERENCES ARE LESS NOTICEABLE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS...BUT STILL LIES ON THE SPEEDIER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL WILL COMPLETE A LARGE CYCLONIC
LOOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 30.6N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 34.0N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 43.1N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1800Z 46.6N 40.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1800Z 52.5N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1800Z 50.5N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z 44.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...HURRICANE PAUL SLOWS DOWN AND IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 112.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY.

PAUL IS BARELY A HURRICANE...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN AUTOMATIC STATION IN PUERTO CORTES
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H WITH A GUST OF
71 MPH...114 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN ALSO IMPACTING THE AREA SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

STRONG WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PAUL...AND THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. THESE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
AND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR
AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...AND PAUL WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

AFTER A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ONLY 13
KNOTS. THIS SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS ACTUALLY
ANTICIPATED BY MODELS AND INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PAUL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AROUND A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP
PAUL OR ITS REMANTS OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

GIVEN THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED AND BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 24.7N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting RitaEvac:
Not sure what the hell is going on, but if we don't get rains this fall/winter/spring, it's gonna be doom for TX again


What is different about this year? It's as if all of a sudden we got a ton of rain in the beginning, then it's slowly been tapering off through the year. IAH is now below normal for rainfall this year despite being above normal ever since January.

I guess we'll have to see what the next month or so brings, I don't like the looks of this. Far too little rain the past few weeks.

I hate to say this, but I have a feeling that N-G was right, we're in for a rough, multi-year dry period.
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneRafael @ 16Oct.06pm

15Oct.06pm 23.6n65.8w 70knots(81mph)130km/h 980millibars TropicalStorm was re-evaluated&altered to
15Oct.06pm 23.6n65.8w 75knots(86mph)139km/h 979millibars TropicalStorm

16Oct.12pm 27.3n65.0w 75knots(86mph)139km/h 970millibars Hurricane was re-evaluated&altered to
16Oct.12pm 27.6n64.9w 80knots(92mph)148km/h 970millibars Hurricane

BDA-Bermuda :: NGD-Anegada



The longest line is a straightline projection through Rafael's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda.

16Oct.06pm -- HurricaneRafael was heading for a 17Oct.02:26amGMT passage 59miles(96kilometres)ESEast of Bermuda in ~5&1/2hours

Copy&paste ngd, bda, 22.6n65.6w-23.6n65.8w, 23.6n65.8w-24.6n65.6w, 24.6n65.6w-25.9n65.3w, 25.9n65.3w-27.6n64.9w, 27.6n64.9w-29.5n64.4w, 27.6n64.9w-32.1684n63.6603w, 32.3675n64.6475w-32.1684n63.660w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
What a picture of Paul...did Clarion Island survive?
Quoting kwgirl:
Why not? I saw palm trees in Dunoon Scotland, well, along the riverside back in 1976/1977. Amazed me. They were dwarf date trees.


Ireland and Southern England have palm trees.
288 hours

That GOES-13 test that ended a few hours ago did look promising:)) She's going back into operation!!! October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to GOES-13.


Topic: GOES-13 Return to Operational Service as GOES-East and GOES-14
Drift Stop Maneuver


Date/Time Issued: October 16, 2012 at 2038 UTC

Product(s) or Data Impacted: GOES-13 and GOES-14 Imager and Sounder
Data, GVAR Data

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 initiated.

Date/Time of Expected End: October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 completed.

Note: GOES-14 Drift Stop Maneuver will be executed October 19,
2012 at 1356 UTC

Length of Outage: See Details.

Details/Specifics of Change:
Tests of GOES-13 instrumentation have demonstrated the imager and
sounder are ready to return to GOES-East operational service. GOES-13
Imager data are nominal and thanks to outgassing activities the
noise in
GOES-13 Sounder shortwave data has been reduced compared to pre-anomaly
levels. The return of GOES-13 to operational service also optimizes
the
long term continuity of the GOES constellation.


On October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC GOES-13 data will be inserted back into
the GOES-13 GVAR data stream, replacing the current GOES-14 data
stream.
Users do not need to repoint their antennas as the switch of GVAR data
streams will be transparent. Users will notice the immediate shift of
Earth coverage from the current GOES-14 drifting position to the
GOES-13
position at 75 degrees West longitude. GOES-East products will be
generated using GOES-13 and will receive nominal 24x7 monitoring. GINI
and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure nominal GOES-East
coverage of the CONUS for users of AWIPS and for users of the
SATEPSDIST
servers within ESPC. Products requiring a climatology of 30 days will
not be generated until the requisite number of fixed satellite location
days have passed:
- ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm)
- GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product)
- GEO-SST (No NETCDF format)
- GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)


RSO and SRSO schedules from GOES-13 will be available to the NWS
immediately after the switch is completed. A final stop maneuver of
GOES-14 will occur on October 19, 2012 at 1356 UTC placing it at a
position of 89.5 degrees West longitude where it will remain in standby

until further notice.


Quoting nofailsafe:


What is different about this year? It's as if all of a sudden we got a ton of rain in the beginning, then it's slowly been tapering off through the year. IAH is now below normal for rainfall this year despite being above normal ever since January.

I guess we'll have to see what the next month or so brings, I don't like the looks of this. Far too little rain the past few weeks.

I hate to say this, but I have a feeling that N-G was right, we're in for a rough, multi-year dry period.


Yep, we're drying out rapidly now
And Patrap is missing


Mystery explosion shatters windows, lights sky in Louisiana


The National Weather Service captured images of the staggering explosion on its Doppler Radar system, explains a report posted online. Based on radar analysis, the plume was initially as high as almost 7,200 feet above ground level.

The agency said the radar imagery is similar to that usually seen with smoke plumes associated with wildfires


We need to find that radar image of this event
Quoting Skyepony:
That GOES-13 test that ended a few hours ago did look promising:)) She's going back into operation!!! October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to GOES-13.


Topic: GOES-13 Return to Operational Service as GOES-East and GOES-14
Drift Stop Maneuver


Date/Time Issued: October 16, 2012 at 2038 UTC

Product(s) or Data Impacted: GOES-13 and GOES-14 Imager and Sounder
Data, GVAR Data

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 initiated.

Date/Time of Expected End: October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 completed.

Note: GOES-14 Drift Stop Maneuver will be executed October 19,
2012 at 1356 UTC

Length of Outage: See Details.

Details/Specifics of Change:
Tests of GOES-13 instrumentation have demonstrated the imager and
sounder are ready to return to GOES-East operational service. GOES-13
Imager data are nominal and thanks to outgassing activities the
noise in
GOES-13 Sounder shortwave data has been reduced compared to pre-anomaly
levels. The return of GOES-13 to operational service also optimizes
the
long term continuity of the GOES constellation.


On October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC GOES-13 data will be inserted back into
the GOES-13 GVAR data stream, replacing the current GOES-14 data
stream.
Users do not need to repoint their antennas as the switch of GVAR data
streams will be transparent. Users will notice the immediate shift of
Earth coverage from the current GOES-14 drifting position to the
GOES-13
position at 75 degrees West longitude. GOES-East products will be
generated using GOES-13 and will receive nominal 24x7 monitoring. GINI
and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure nominal GOES-East
coverage of the CONUS for users of AWIPS and for users of the
SATEPSDIST
servers within ESPC. Products requiring a climatology of 30 days will
not be generated until the requisite number of fixed satellite location
days have passed:
- ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm)
- GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product)
- GEO-SST (No NETCDF format)
- GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)


RSO and SRSO schedules from GOES-13 will be available to the NWS
immediately after the switch is completed. A final stop maneuver of
GOES-14 will occur on October 19, 2012 at 1356 UTC placing it at a
position of 89.5 degrees West longitude where it will remain in standby

until further notice.



That's awesome!
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

PRC053-103-162215-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0387.000000T0000Z-121016T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NAGUABO PR-FAJARDO PR-
513 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
NAGUABO AND FAJARDO

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THESE AND THE SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES.THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RUNOFF AND RAPID RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS... AT
LEAST UNTIL 615 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6565 1829 6562 1829 6569 1827 6570
1829 6575 1827 6576 1825 6571 1823 6583
1825 6582 1827 6583 1829 6578 1828 6578
1830 6575 1829 6572

$$

RAM
Nice Deadmau5 image too
Quoting RitaEvac:
And Patrap is missing


Mystery explosion shatters windows, lights sky in Louisiana


The National Weather Service captured images of the staggering explosion on its Doppler Radar system, explains a report posted online. Based on radar analysis, the plume was initially as high as almost 7,200 feet above ground level.

The agency said the radar imagery is similar to that usually seen with smoke plumes associated with wildfires




Was a massive explosion at ammunition recycling factory.

The 1/2hr frames of the WunderNEXRAD Archive misses it.


Paul isn't looking so good right now... I doubt that changes any time soon...

Quoting RitaEvac:
Nice Deadmau5 image too


Thanks... yeah kind of a fan... XD


Quoting Skyepony:
That GOES-13 test that ended a few hours ago did look promising:)) She's going back into operation!!! October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to GOES-13.


Topic: GOES-13 Return to Operational Service as GOES-East and GOES-14
Drift Stop Maneuver


Date/Time Issued: October 16, 2012 at 2038 UTC

Product(s) or Data Impacted: GOES-13 and GOES-14 Imager and Sounder
Data, GVAR Data

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 initiated.

Date/Time of Expected End: October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 completed.

Note: GOES-14 Drift Stop Maneuver will be executed October 19,
2012 at 1356 UTC

Length of Outage: See Details.

Details/Specifics of Change:
Tests of GOES-13 instrumentation have demonstrated the imager and
sounder are ready to return to GOES-East operational service. GOES-13
Imager data are nominal and thanks to outgassing activities the
noise in
GOES-13 Sounder shortwave data has been reduced compared to pre-anomaly
levels. The return of GOES-13 to operational service also optimizes
the
long term continuity of the GOES constellation.


On October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC GOES-13 data will be inserted back into
the GOES-13 GVAR data stream, replacing the current GOES-14 data
stream.
Users do not need to repoint their antennas as the switch of GVAR data
streams will be transparent. Users will notice the immediate shift of
Earth coverage from the current GOES-14 drifting position to the
GOES-13
position at 75 degrees West longitude. GOES-East products will be
generated using GOES-13 and will receive nominal 24x7 monitoring. GINI
and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure nominal GOES-East
coverage of the CONUS for users of AWIPS and for users of the
SATEPSDIST
servers within ESPC. Products requiring a climatology of 30 days will
not be generated until the requisite number of fixed satellite location
days have passed:
- ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm)
- GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product)
- GEO-SST (No NETCDF format)
- GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)


RSO and SRSO schedules from GOES-13 will be available to the NWS
immediately after the switch is completed. A final stop maneuver of
GOES-14 will occur on October 19, 2012 at 1356 UTC placing it at a
position of 89.5 degrees West longitude where it will remain in standby

until further notice.


very good news and we get to have a backup in case again
18z running lets see what this run shows
Quoting RitaEvac:
We need to find that radar image of this event


BOOM



I'm waiting for some comic relief. AKA the 18Z GFS.
Where's Tuesday's cold front that was promised for central Florida. Orlando was supposed to be sunny with dewpoints in the 40's. Instead the dewpoint has been hovering in the 60's ALL DAY under cloudy skies! Is this some kind of joke...

I sure hope this weekend ain't the same deal cause I'm sick and tired of the humidity!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18z running lets see what this run shows

Please don't post every single frame this time, Keep.
OLD MAN WINTER IS SNEAKING IN LIL BY LIL...........URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012

OKZ002-003-TXZ002>005-007>010-012>017-170415-
/O.NEW.KAMA.FR.Y.0004.121018T0600Z-121018T1500Z/
TEXAS-BEAVER-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- MOORE-HUTCHINSON-
ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-POTTER-CARSON-GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUYMON...BEAVER...FORGAN...STRATFORD...
SPEARMAN...GRUVER...PERRYTON...BOOKER...HIGGINS.. .FOLLETT...
DUMAS...BORGER...MIAMI...CANADIAN...AMARILLO...PA NHANDLE...
WHITE DEER...PAMPA...SHAMROCK...WHEELER...HEREFORD...CAN YON
306 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

* EVENT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING MID THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY SUSTAIN DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN TO PROTECT
PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 33 TO
36 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS MAY OR MAY NOT CAUSE
FROST TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF
LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

CLK
Quoting weatherbro:
Where's Tuesday's cold front that was promised for central Florida. Orlando was supposed to be sunny with dewpoints in the 40's. Instead the dewpoint has been hovering in the 60's ALL DAY under cloudy skies! Is this some kind of joke...

I sure hope this weekend ain't the same deal cause I'm sick and tired of the humidity!!!

Patience is key.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Please don't post every single frame this time, Keep.



Why not? Are you offended somehow?
I am waiting to see if the 18z gfs brings Sandy and Tony.
GFS at 96 hours..............
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Please don't post every single frame this time, Keep.
it may be dropped this run anyway
Quoting RitaEvac:
And Patrap is missing


Mystery explosion shatters windows, lights sky in Louisiana


The National Weather Service captured images of the staggering explosion on its Doppler Radar system, explains a report posted online. Based on radar analysis, the plume was initially as high as almost 7,200 feet above ground level.

The agency said the radar imagery is similar to that usually seen with smoke plumes associated with wildfires


What kind of a news organization slugs a misleadingly sensationalist headline breathlessly announcing a "mystery explosion" above a story that goes on to clearly state the exact location, time, and cause of that explosion?

Oh, wait--it's Fox? Why, they're not really a "news" organization at all, are they? Nevermind...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it may be dropped this run anyway
I hate that color version.
By 156 hours it's continuing with the idea of developing an East Pac storm... we'll likely see Caribbean development start around 216-240 hours.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Why not? Are you offended somehow?

No, but I imagine some people may not like having to scroll down tens of posts of model frame after model frame. It probably also slows the page load time down too.
That's spelled F-a-u-x news...
192 hours... some low pressure evident. We'll see what happens.

Quoting Neapolitan:
What kind of a news organization slugs a misleadingly sensationalist headline breathlessly announcing a "mystery explosion" above a story that goes on to clearly state the exact location, time, and cause of that explosion?

Oh, wait--it's Fox? Why, they're not really a "news" organization at all, are they? Nevermind...

did you notice it said, The Associated Press contributed to this report at the bottom of the report?? I guess you have heard of "head-line" grabbing, this is all it was. end of story.
Quoting Neapolitan:
What kind of a news organization slugs a misleadingly sensationalist headline breathlessly announcing a "mystery explosion" above a story that goes on to clearly state the exact location, time, and cause of that explosion?

Oh, wait--it's Fox? Why, they're not really a "news" organization at all, are they? Nevermind...
Same people that made a big deal of the "BIG" eyeball found on Pompano Beach
252:

276:

Just for giggles..







A more defined system as opposed to the extremely elongated mess the 12z GFS showed makes more sense to me. It's typical of the GFS to show this occasionally, I remember it did it with Major Hurricane Rina last year.
Quoting LargoFl:


thats a very welcomed site!....these winters in texas sure have been rainy...Thank tha LERD! hope it keeps up last last winter
KEEPER, I think you missed a few frames. Would you mind posting all the others?
East it goes!

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
276:

Can you continue to post trhis version please?.
Unbelievable... runs straight into Haiti as a hurricane, and check out the situation up north:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Unbelievable... runs straight into Haiti as a hurricane, and check out the situation up north:




Looks like high pressure will build into the Southeast (Florida) blocking any system from coming north.
372... still going east. I mentioned the possibility for a Lenny-like storm a couple weeks back... this run definitely supports that.





done now till 00z run
And last frame... still going very strong and heading for Cariboy:

Quoting Grothar:


GFS has been flipping back and forth regarding the latitude of the right turn. The last two runs suit me but I don't wish bad fortune to those zero'd in on this one.
Halloween is back on for south Fla.! My dog is very happy she can go out trick or treating! She worked hard on her costume...


I have an eye doctor appt tomorrow. If he has GFS frame by frame maps on the eyechart, I'll pass with 20/10 vision.

Nice shortwave passing through the northern tier states.

Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
And last frame... still going very strong and heading for Cariboy:


He'll be happy, he's wanted one all season. Could it be a Major?
I dont like that run a bit with the Lenny type track.But is long range.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Halloween is back on for south Fla.! My dog is very happy she can go out trick or treating! She worked hard on her costume...




Geoff, that is cruel, but that is funniest thing I've seen on the blog in a long time.
Quoting AussieStorm:

did you notice it said, The Associated Press contributed to this report at the bottom of the report?? I guess you have heard of "head-line" grabbing, this is all it was. end of story.
Of course, headlines are very often written by a local editor or copy editor, not by the wire service providing the story. At any rate, Fox has earned itself the the reputation of being the most misleading of all the major news outlets. Inaccurate and sensationalist headlines such as the one they selected for the explosion story are part of the reason they've earned that rep.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Halloween is back on for south Fla.! My dog is very happy she can go out trick or treating! She worked hard on her costume...




You've outdone the movie "Arachnophobia"; one of my fav's - nicely done.
Quoting docrod:


GFS has been flipping back and forth regarding the latitude of the right turn. The last two runs suit me but I don't wish bad fortune to those zero'd in on this one.


More models are coming on board.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Halloween is back on for south Fla.! My dog is very happy she can go out trick or treating! She worked hard on her costume...


And here I thought the "barking spider" was only a mythical beast...
Quoting Grothar:


More models are coming on board.


I know ;>)
Quoting LargoFl:


This is quite interesting. I saw it, stopped, and then went to look at my local dopplar. There had been no mention of rain for today. I look and sure enough the rain is about 12 miles west of me and heading my way. I go back and check the forecast, 'partly cloudy' but no rain. Hmmmm. But now I don't have to go out to water the flowers and garden. *S*
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Lot of rain into Central America.
If the GFS run pans out, it seems as if we will have a storm form in the WCAR and brush Cuba until it runs staight into Hati and keeps going toward PR.
Unbelievable.
Quoting Grothar:


More models are coming on board.


I agree,more model consus now...
By the way Gro..thanks for the post in my blog..
I left you a response my friend.. :)
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If the GFS run pans out, it seems as if we will have a storm form in the WCAR and brush Cuba until it runs staight into Hati and keeps going toward PR.
Unbelievable.


thats not what im seeing
So far, so good :)...

Of course the track and intensity forecasts are going to change in the longer range, but that doesn't make the development of the storm any less likely. A lot of the models have at least a defined area of low pressure in the West Caribbean before 200 hours, and some even have it as a fully-developed storm. As it stands now, I'd give it a 6/10 chance of eventually developing. The only reason that number is not higher is because it is still a while out. However... environmental conditions are expected to be favorable in the Caribbean in general, with below average amounts of dry air and wind shear, and above average sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. Don't forget the exceptionally intense positive MJO pulse either.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




done now till 00z run


this thing in this frame, is over my house!!! OMG!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Of course the track and intensity forecasts are going to change in the longer range, but that doesn't make the development of the storm any less likely. A lot of the models have at least a defined area of low pressure in the West Caribbean before 200 hours, and some even have it as a fully-developed storm. As it stands now, I'd give it a 6/10 chance of eventually developing. The only reason that number is not higher is because it is still a while out. However... environmental conditions are expected to be favorable in the Caribbean in general, with below average amounts of dry air and wind shear, and above average sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. Don't forget the exceptionally intense positive MJO pulse either.


So in short, while it is still a while out conditions will be favorable and there is a high chance of something developing.
Pressures are below average in W/NW Caribbean, here in Grand Cayman, its been 1008/1009mb all day.
We just had an earthquake up here!
Just felt shaking at my house in North Mass. E4.5 Magnitude earthquake in Southern Maine.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We just had an earthquake up here!
== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: MAINE
Geographic coordinates: 43.611N, 70.661W
Magnitude: 4.6 mb
Depth: 5 km
Universal Time (UTC): 16 Oct 2012 23:12:22
Time near the Epicenter: 16 Oct 2012 19:12:22
Local standard time in your area: 16 Oct 2012 18:12:22

Location with respect to nearby cities:
8 km (5 miles) SE (132 degrees) of Lake Arrowhead, ME
19 km (12 miles) WSW (246 degrees) of Gorham, ME
20 km (12 miles) NE (34 degrees) of Springvale, ME
94 km (59 miles) NE (42 degrees) of Manchester, NH
148 km (92 miles) NNE (14 degrees) of Boston, MA

quake
42058 Central Caribbean 1750 83.5 85.1 W 3.9 5.8 29.73 -0.01 1.3 9
Quoting stormpetrol:
42058 Central Caribbean 1750 83.5 85.1 W 3.9 5.8 29.73 -0.01 1.3 9


Winds almost due west at this buoy!
Quoting lordhuracan01:


this thing in this frame, is over my house!!! OMG!!!
this run


there are alot of this runs left to go we shall see

stay tune for this and other dipictions yet to come

as the models turn


About 18 hours old.
279. txjac
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We just had an earthquake up here!


Did you actually feel it? Damage in your area?
Tell us
Quoting txjac:


Did you actually feel it? Damage in your area?
Tell us

We felt it in my house... no damage or anything like that (I don't know about closer to the epicenter but I can't imagine it's too significant with a 4.6), it wasn't a violent shaking, but it definitely felt weird... this is the first one I've felt. Some people here felt the one in the DC area last summer but just about everyone up here felt this one.
282. txjac
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We felt it in my house... no damage or anything like that (I don't know about closer to the epicenter but I can't imagine it's too significant with a 4.6), it wasn't a violent shaking, but it definitely felt weird... this is the first one I've felt. Some people here felt the one in the DC area last summer but just about everyone up here felt this one.


I've always wondered what one felt like ...one thing that I havent experienced as of yet.
Quoting txjac:


Did you actually feel it? Damage in your area?
Tell us
It shook here for about 15-20 seconds. There is a power pole, with a transformer, right outside the house that is now leaning a bit closer to the house now.I am about 80 miles to the south of where the epicenter was.
been a while since a 8.0 + has occurred 6 months now i think should be one soon
285. txjac
Quoting AegirsGal:
It shook here for about 15-20 seconds. There is a power pole, with a transformer, right outside the house that is now leaning a bit closer to the house now.I am about 80 miles to the south of where the epicenter was.


Well here's to that pole not leaning any more!
Hopefully they come and righten it soon
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If the GFS run pans out, it seems as if we will have a storm form in the WCAR and brush Cuba until it runs staight into Hati and keeps going toward PR.
Unbelievable.


Wrong-way Lenny's niece?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
So far, so good :)...



The little popup of moisture in the Gulf of Honduras area catches my eye. Just a blobservation.

I think Rafael is finally succumbing a bit to the shear, I wonder how much longer he will last now that there are holes in his circulation?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 112.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
Since T.C conditions have not bee good in the caribbean this year I think a T.S or Ida type situation is possible.But a Mitch,Wilma,Lenny or Paloma type storm doesn't seem in the cards.Of course anything could happen.
I heard there was an earthquake in New Zealand too? can anyone confirm that?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 63.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
291. JLPR2
That was one crazy run.



Though it isn't the first time the GFS has shown it moving east, I think it is the second time.

But I believe it will switch back to its NE movement in the next run.
When Irene struck, earthquake in Virginia/DC, When Leslie became a hurricane, earthquake in Costa Rica, When Issac became a hurricane, earthquake in CA, When Rafael became a hurricane, an earthquake in Maine..
Good night all. It's pouring on the outside and rain is in the forecast for tomorrow as well. Besides the complaint about flooding in some areas over the weekend most people enjoyed the showers brought by TS Rafael, myself included.It was just a great time for rest and relaxation.
Quoting ncstorm:
When Irene struck, earthquake in Virginia/DC, When Leslie became a hurricane, earthquake in Costa Rica, When Issac became a hurricane, earthquake in CA, When Rafael became a hurricane, an earthquake in Maine..
It's doom all over the place I tell ya!.Doom!.Must have something to do with G__.Anyway getting hit with a earthqauke and then a hurricane to follow was very weird and I'm sure I'll never experience nothing like it for the rest of my life.Luckly none were very server for my area Virgina can not say the same...
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's doom all over the place I tell ya!.Doom!.Must have something to do with G__.Anyway getting hit with a earthqauke and then a hurricane to follow was very weird and I'm sure I'll never experience nothing like it for the rest of my life.Luckly none were very server for my area Virgina can not say the sam...


its definitely looking like a correlation between the two..hurricanes and earthquakes..
Quoting ncstorm:
I heard there was an earthquake in New Zealand too? can anyone confirm that?

There was, a 5.5, quite a bit larger than the one here but much deeper. I doubt the NZ one was widely felt.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

There was, a 5.5, quite a bit larger than the one here but much deeper. I doubt the NZ one was widely felt.


thank you!
Quoting ncstorm:


its definitely looking like a correlation between the two..hurricanes and earthquakes..
Earthqaukes can also be warning signs for tsunami's,volcano eruptions and such.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's doom all over the place I tell ya!.Doom!.Must have something to do with G__.Anyway getting hit with a earthqauke and then a hurricane to follow was very weird and I'm sure I'll never experience nothing like it for the rest of my life.Luckly none were very server for my area Virgina can not say the same...

I remember that!!!!! a lot of people around here ran to their basement bcause they were thinking a bomb blew up...... My first earthquake... never will forget it :p
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Halloween is back on for south Fla.! My dog is very happy she can go out trick or treating! She worked hard on her costume...




One thing the UK surely lacks...proper Halloween! Been more popular the last few years, but still nowhere near like good ol' American Halloween! I feel I've deprived my daughter in that area by living here for sure! LOL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, but I imagine some people may not like having to scroll down tens of posts of model frame after model frame. It probably also slows the page load time down too.


I know I only speak for myself, but just want to say, because I have slow internet, and very limited being I only have a mobile dongle (not sure what the US equivalent is, cell phone usb attachment that I get internet through cell phone connection LOL) I actually 'like' everyone putting on maps. Can be slow to load, but much better than trying to visit all those site myself with a wonky connection. But, obvs not everyone, even with a limited connection like mine, would agree. I sometimes scroll past, but at least they are there, and all here in one place, when in the mood to study them. I def don't want everyone to think everyone with a bad connection would hate them though, for some it's more helpful, from everyone that posts maps. And I thank you all for doing it really.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Same people that made a big deal of the "BIG" eyeball found on Pompano Beach


The same people that made a big deal out of 4 dead Americans and our government lying about it when no other news org would.
So I see the GFS is still on for development in the Western Caribbean and that it kills the EPAC storm which tells me the steering currents will be from Southwest to Northeast over the EPAC and the Western Caribbean.

Quoting LostTomorrows:


Wrong-way Lenny's niece?

The little popup of moisture in the Gulf of Honduras area catches my eye. Just a blobservation.

I think Rafael is finally succumbing a bit to the shear, I wonder how much longer he will last now that there are holes in his circulation?
Blobservation is my favorite new word I have seen in a long time. Nice work.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We felt it in my house... no damage or anything like that (I don't know about closer to the epicenter but I can't imagine it's too significant with a 4.6), it wasn't a violent shaking, but it definitely felt weird... this is the first one I've felt. Some people here felt the one in the DC area last summer but just about everyone up here felt this one.


Eeek, thing is, ok, 4.6 not bad...but when shallow, in a place not designed for seismic activity, can do quite a bit of damage! UK had one on the southern end of England a few years back about the same, and did quite a bit of damage being everything is brick and stone built.

I know bigger ones can happen anywhere from mid-shelf strain and all...but it still surprises me when one does!



Isn't the Maine one a bit shallow for an earthquake? 6.7 kilometers down.

The USGS downgraded it to a 4.0 too.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's doom all over the place I tell ya!.Doom!.Must have something to do with G__.Anyway getting hit with a earthqauke and then a hurricane to follow was very weird and I'm sure I'll never experience nothing like it for the rest of my life.Luckly none were very server for my area Virgina can not say the same...
That Doom started since 2004 when we had a wild year with hurricanes here in FL. and then at the end of the year with the Tsunami in Indonesia. Ever since then there have been a frequent number of major catastrophic events.
Easy on the Kool-aid, buddy.

winky thing.

anywho.
Rafael gettin sheared apart, it would seem.



Quoting PensacolaDoug:


You are delusional.

No winky thing.
They've actually downgraded the magnitude by quite a bit- now a 4.0 instead of a 4.6.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That Doom started since 2004 when we had a wild year with hurricanes here in FL. and then at the end of the year with the Tsunami in Indonesia. Ever since then there have been a frequent number of major catastrophic events.
Perhaps leading to the biggest doom event come 12/21/12.Lol ;).
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Easy on the Kool-aid, buddy.

winky thing.

anywho.
Rafael gettin sheared apart, it would seem.




We've got a few struggling with shear tonight. Paul certainly doesn't appear to be having a fun time of it:



And Prapiroon's looking a little empty inside:

Quoting Neapolitan:
Of course, headlines are very often written by a local editor or copy editor, not by the wire service providing the story. At any rate, Fox has earned itself the the reputation of being the most misleading of all the major news outlets. Inaccurate and sensationalist headlines such as the one they selected for the explosion story are part of the reason they've earned that rep.
THIS IS TOTAL BS!!!!!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We've got a few struggling with shear tonight. Paul certainly doesn't appear to be having a fun time of it:



And Prapiroon's looking a little empty inside:


Rafael has peaked and shear/cooler waters are starting to take their toll on him.
Paul is really weakening and disorganized.
Prapiroon looks hungry for convection.
0z ATCF keeps Rafael at 75kts.

AL, 17, 2012101700, , BEST, 0, 315N, 631W, 75, 969, HU
Quoting washingtonian115:
Perhaps leading to the biggest doom event come 12/21/12.Lol ;).
Please don`t say that I just want to pass that day without any bad things happening.
Wow one of the 18z GFS ENSEMBLE
So you think you are having a bad day...

Via NBC...
High drama on the San Francisco Bay Tuesday afternoon after an Oracle Team USA boat AC72 capsized while practicing for the America's Cup race.

The catamaran is a massive vessel with the hull alone weighing 13,000 pounds.

It's mast is 131.2 feet high which is the height of a 13 story building.

The capsize turned into an overturn by 4:30 p.m. when the boat turned upside down. Tow boats did not seem to be making much progress as the boat, which appeared to be breaking apart, was sucked out past the Golden Gate.

The wing of the ship was severely damaged. It appeared to break away from the boat just before 5 p.m. It was breaking into parts a few minutes later.

Four or five crew members were on the boat, but it wasn't clear what they were trying to do. There were dozens of pieces of the boat floating nearby.

So far the Coast Guard has not been called in to help, the rescue effort is a private one being done by America's Cup people.

The good news is that no one was injured when the boat capsized.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow one of the 18z GFS ENSEMBLE

November 1st. I better start calling family in the Sunshine State.
ALmost like a cage match, the debate!
I love onion rings.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I love onion rings.


I was thinking more of a doughnut, but that would be a big doughnut hole. That is better than Paul, who is next to nothing and likely weaker than 70mph.
are any of you going too buy window 8 next friday or PC or window 8 tablet?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
So I see the GFS is still on for development in the Western Caribbean and that it kills the EPAC storm which tells me the steering currents will be from Southwest to Northeast over the EPAC and the Western Caribbean.


which means big problem for me or us here in the Cayman Islands

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow one of the 18z GFS ENSEMBLE


you know make that a big problem
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I love onion rings.


idk why these types of tropical cyclones are my favorite.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Of course, headlines are very often written by a local editor or copy editor, not by the wire service providing the story. At any rate, Fox has earned itself the the reputation of being the most misleading of all the major news outlets. Inaccurate and sensationalist headlines such as the one they selected for the explosion story are part of the reason they've earned that rep.

Fox is on the far right.
All other news that I know of are far left.
Wish there was a news agency that reported the news without an agenda.
6.7 kilometers deep is relatively shallow, but not unusually so.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I love onion rings.

Serve them at my work all the time.
Rafael has surrendered to shear and is weakening. He should turn extra-tropical in a few days. Bermuda should still get tropical storm conditions from Rafael and in 5-7 days the Azores could get something again.


Also this weekend is a big one, UoM vs MSU at the big house. Right now it looks like the weather should be cool and nice for the game.
Rafael:

Rafael seems to be in the process of transitioning into a more non-tropical entity. The majority of the convection is shifting to the northern quadrant as it begins to interact with an upper-level low and cold front, but it is also due to strong southwesterly wind shear.
Anais should make landfall as a tropical Storm.
.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Of course, headlines are very often written by a local editor or copy editor, not by the wire service providing the story. At any rate, Fox has earned itself the the reputation of being the most misleading of all the major news outlets. Inaccurate and sensationalist headlines such as the one they selected for the explosion story are part of the reason they've earned that rep.


Wow.

A regular Bojangles, yessiree.

You get three gold stars for that tap dance.

not marh lift of PAUL
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PAUL WEAKENING RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 112.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL
MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PAUL SHOULD THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY.
PAUL SHOULD ALSO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH PAUL...AND THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...PAUL IS STILL PRODUCING SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CLOSER TO ITS CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN NO
GROUND TRUTH TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF PAUL...AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE SLOW TO COME DOWN DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. GIVEN THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT
IS ESTIMATED BY ASSUMING A FAIRLY QUICK RATE OF DECAY.

PAUL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND IS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH A MOTION OF 350/10 KT. THE
TROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A
CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE NEW SUITE OF TRACK
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER OF PAUL JUST GRAZING THE COAST AND BARELY
MOVING INLAND...IF AT ALL...SO THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PAUL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO RAPID
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
DECAY SHOWN BY THE DSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND SHOWS PAUL WEAKENING
BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THE REMNANT
LOW SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA BY 48 HOURS AS ADVERTISED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 25.6N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0000Z 28.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 29.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
...PAUL WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 16
Location: 25.6N 112.7W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

...RAFAEL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 16
Location: 32.4N 62.5W
Moving: NNE at 29 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...RAFAEL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 62.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN BERMUDA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED
THAT RAFAEL WAS MORE OR LESS MAINTINING ITS INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THE CYCLONE WAS BECOMING TILTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE
TILT OF THE VORTEX SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING WILL SOON OCCUR. COOLER
WATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD ALSO INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS RAFAEL BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE PRESUMPTION
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE DERIVING SOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC
SOURCES.

RAFAEL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 030/25. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. RAFAEL OR ITS POST-TROPICAL
COUNTERPART SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE IN THE FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND
ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
PREDICTION...AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 32.4N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 36.2N 59.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 40.9N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 44.9N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0000Z 48.5N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0000Z 53.5N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0000Z 43.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?
Quoting clamshell:


Wow.

A regular Bojangles, yessiree.

You get three gold stars for that tap dance.




<
Quoting Grothar:



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?
i havn't seen it yet
Quoting Grothar:



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?

Maybe, but if so I still think we need to see it again;)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 17 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (997 hPa) located at 15.0S 58.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.9S 54.9E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
48 HRS: 16.6S 51.7E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has still decreased and now is totally rejected in the southeastern quadrant of the system. Anais is penetrating in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is rapidly weakening.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperature too fresh) and Anais should lose tropical storm status within the next hours and dissipate Friday in the vicinity of eastern coasts of Madagascar.
Quoting Skyepony:
Anais should make landfall as a tropical Storm.


Mauritius doesn't even make it a tropical depression before encountering Madagascar
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The same people that made a big deal out of 4 dead Americans and our government lying about it when no other news org would.
Since you opened the can, I think tonight's debate was a much better debate than the first one... a lot more fun to watch.

On a weather note, was it possible that President Obama was suffering from altitude sickness last time? Somebody mentioned that he flew to Denver 3 hours before the debate. I do know [from personal experience] that it's better to make a more gradual approach to that fine city. Otherwise one would be wise to give yourself time to get acclimatized. That would certainly explained the dazed look and the frowning...

[But would that be weather or climate?]
Quoting Grothar:



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?
Actually, I haven't seen it yet... should I go pull it for you???
Quoting Autistic2:

Fox is on the far right.
All other news that I know of are far left.
Wish there was a news agency that reported the news without an agenda.
CNN is NOT on the far left. That is a myth.

Quoting Skyepony:
Anais should make landfall as a tropical Storm.
Wow... I didn't think it would make it that far west.... amazing to have a major that early, and then have it hit something too???

Does anybody have a link to where one could get the latest NHC advisory 5 or 6 times.
Well, now that I haven't seen the advisory 4 times..... lol I gotta go to bed... Hopefully I'll get a chance to look in during the day tomorrow.
Neat!

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow one of the 18z GFS ENSEMBLE

DOOM!!!!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Neat!



The Azores are the new CONUS this year haha.
Quoting ncstorm:


its definitely looking like a correlation between the two..hurricanes and earthquakes..

Coming into this discussion late as usual. Posting for the record only; don't actually expect any of the OP's to see this. Otherwise known as preaching to the empty pews.

First thing a budding scientist-in-training learns is that correlation does NOT imply causality. And anyone who forgets this important principle doesn't last long in science.

Given the huge number of earthquakes that occur daily, how could there NOT be a "correlation" with some hurricane somewhere? But what about all of those other quakes? The ones that do NOT match up with a hurricane in time and space. How do you explain the LACK of correlation with those? And remember, there are lots more uncorrelated quakes than there are "correlated" quakes. So you've got lots of 'splainin' to do, my friends.

So you can cherry-pick the data all you want. But in the end, all you will have is... cherries. ;)
Quoting Autistic2:

Fox is on the far right.
All other news that I know of are far left.
Wish there was a news agency that reported the news without an agenda.



Link
I see the 12 and 18z GFS runs have trended with an out to sea scenario with our potential Sandy. Not that I'm saying that's bad, necessarily, but... damn. What's with this seemingly magical barrier over the lower 48 that hurricanes just can't seem to penetrate lately? A lot of storms seem to try every year, but few ever actually make it. I seriously don't understand it. Levi blames the PDO, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as the PDO was cold during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, and we still had more landfalls than we do now (not to mention Texas was firmly entrenched in a drought in the 1950s when those landfalls occurred, so I don't think that fully explains it either).
Keeper your of the chain.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I see the 12 and 18z GFS runs have trended with an out to sea scenario with our potential Sandy. Not that I'm saying that's bad, necessarily, but... damn. What's with this seemingly magical barrier over the lower 48 that hurricanes just can't seem to penetrate? A lot of storms seem to try every year, but few ever actually make it. I seriously don't understand it. Levi blames the PDO, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as the PDO was cold during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, and we still had more landfalls than we do now (not to mention Texas was firmly entrenched in a drought in the 1950s when those landfalls occurred, so I don't think that fully explains it either).

Maybe there is a magic barrier that now protects the US. I still think it is possible Sandy(or Tony) could hit the US as a hurricane. Track can't be decided until the storm actually forms. All we know is conditions will be favorable and it is likely a storm will form.

Tigers win again, game 4 tomorrow!
Quoting KoritheMan:
I see the 12 and 18z GFS runs have trended with an out to sea scenario with our potential Sandy. Not that I'm saying that's bad, necessarily, but... damn. What's with this seemingly magical barrier over the lower 48 that hurricanes just can't seem to penetrate lately? A lot of storms seem to try every year, but few ever actually make it. I seriously don't understand it. Levi blames the PDO, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as the PDO was cold during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, and we still had more landfalls than we do now (not to mention Texas was firmly entrenched in a drought in the 1950s when those landfalls occurred, so I don't think that fully explains it either).


If we don't get a major hurricane landfall in the next two years, I might actually against my better judgement consider the possibility that some sort of seeding effort in underway without our knowledge. Silly, I know. But if we go 10 years without a major hurricane hitting the United States I won't know what to say.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting Autistic2:

Fox is on the far right.
All other news that I know of are far left.
Wish there was a news agency that reported the news without an agenda.



Link


Well done grasshopper :)
Quoting KoritheMan:
I see the 12 and 18z GFS runs have trended with an out to sea scenario with our potential Sandy. Not that I'm saying that's bad, necessarily, but... damn. What's with this seemingly magical barrier over the lower 48 that hurricanes just can't seem to penetrate lately? A lot of storms seem to try every year, but few ever actually make it. I seriously don't understand it. Levi blames the PDO, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as the PDO was cold during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, and we still had more landfalls than we do now (not to mention Texas was firmly entrenched in a drought in the 1950s when those landfalls occurred, so I don't think that fully explains it either).
I think this is where a micro-climate change comes into play. There could be a correlation with the loss of Arctic Sea Ice that is causing stronger troughs to set up along the East Coast, but this is just my speculation with not much research done.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Maybe there is a magic barrier that now protects the US. I still think it is possible Sandy(or Tony) could hit the US as a hurricane. Track can't be decided until the storm actually forms. All we know is conditions will be favorable and it is likely a storm will form.

Tigers win again, game 4 tomorrow!


Seriously. I don't care at this point if a hurricane fails to hit the US ever again; if I have to, I'll go outside the states to chase a hurricane.

I'm more interested in the implications of this from a scientific standpoint. Why is this occurring? What sort of mechanisms are at play that are making things continually play out this way? As I said, the PDO doesn't tell the whole story, and the Texas drought, while no doubt exacerbating this pattern, is also not entirely to blame. I have (and continue to) theorized that anthropogenic global warming may be causing this, but as far as I know there have been no formal studies linking human-induced climate change to large-scale fluctuations in the jet stream.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If we don't get a major hurricane landfall in the next two years, I might actually against my better judgement consider the possibility that some sort of seeding effort in underway without our knowledge. Silly, I know. But if we go 10 years without a major hurricane hitting the United States I won't know what to say.


You will never hear me say that. Ever. I am an evidential person, not a conspiracy theorist.
Quoting KoritheMan:


You will never hear me say that. Ever. I am an evidential person, not a conspiracy theorist.

Of course we will never hear you say it, unless we can now hear each other when we blog/chat;)

Seriously though, research should be done on what has been causing the lack of US hurricane landfalls. There are probably multiple things going on that are causing it or it could just be nature, we don't really know.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Of course we will never hear you say it, unless we can now hear each other when we blog/chat;)

Seriously though, research should be done on what has been causing the lack of US hurricane landfalls. There are probably multiple things going on that are causing it or it could just be nature, we don't really know.


This pattern wasn't even in place during the pre-satellite era.

We've been keeping records for what, 160 years? And this pattern has been literally unprecedented during that entire period.
Quoting Grothar:



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?




this go too the nhc site an you see it there no one needs too post it 500 times on the main blog
Quoting KoritheMan:


You will never hear me say that. Ever. I am an evidential person, not a conspiracy theorist.


Same here, I get the timing issue though, and I have good understanding as to why every Category 3 has either weakened or steered away from us, timing. However, it's amazing that instead if monster Category 3 hurricanes, we're getting equally as powerful Category 1 hurricanes. This all reverts back to my belief that the SSHS is turning into a somewhat bogus system these days, it has its strengths and has a clear definition between categories and is a useful tool developed by a very, very smart meteorologist, but it focuses too much on wind and not enough on the real issue - storm surge. I feel like a broken record but after Ike, Irene, and Isaac I feel it needs to be repeated. An Enhanced SSHS scale is needed.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Same here, I get the timing issue though, and I have good understanding as to why every Category 3 has either weakened or steered away from us, timing. However, it's amazing that instead if monster Category 3 hurricanes, we're getting equally as powerful Category 1 hurricanes. This all reverts back to my belief that the SSHS is turning into a somewhat bogus system these days, it has its strengths and has a clear definition between categories and is a useful tool developed by a very, very smart meteorologist, but it focuses too much on wind and not enough on the real issue - storm surge. I feel like a broken record but after Ike, Irene, and Isaac I feel it needs to be repeated. An Enhanced SSHS scale is needed.

I agree on that an enhanced scale needs to be introduced. There are problems with the current scale that do need to be fixed. In late September I went as far as to make my own scale, Link.
To put things into perspective, we've had 55 named storms during the last three seasons (2010-2012). Out of those, only seven have hit the United States, and only two were of hurricane intensity (Irene and Isaac). There have been no major hurricanes during this period. That is absurd.

For comparison, the most active three year period in terms of number of named storms was 2003-2005, where we had 59 storms. A total of 18 storms hit the United States during that era (17 if you want to exclude Henri in 2003, since it made landfall as a tropical depression), including 12 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes.

Even considering that the recent numbers might be inflated somewhat due to better observational data (scatterometer and satellite) relative to the past, and even supposing the 2003-2005 period was an anomaly (which it clearly was), we should have still at least fallen in between the two compared periods.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that this is truly unprecedented. And at the moment, there is no clear explanation.
545 verses 300,000,000...... Term limits in the Senate and Congress would give the USA back to its citizens. Looks like 2012 will end being another unique season.
The system in the Western Caribbean could be an EPAC crossover.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The system in the Western Caribbean could be an EPAC crossover.

I think it is just the monsoon trough combined with lowering pressures. The GFS develops an epac system for similar reasons. With a strong mjo pulse, high TCHP ans SST values, and lower shear a system could really get going.
Not as much development this run as the last few days. I am going to bed, goodnight everyone.
Quoting KoritheMan:
To put things into perspective, we've had 55 named storms during the last three seasons (2010-2012). Out of those, only seven have hit the United States, and only two were of hurricane intensity (Irene and Isaac). There have been no major hurricanes during this period. That is absurd.

For comparison, the most active three year period in terms of number of named storms was 2003-2005, where we had 59 storms. A total of 18 storms hit the United States during that era (17 if you want to exclude Henri in 2003, since it made landfall as a tropical depression), including 12 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes.

Even considering that the recent numbers might be inflated somewhat due to better observational data (scatterometer and satellite) relative to the past, and even supposing the 2003-2005 period was an anomaly (which it clearly was), we should have still at least fallen in between the two compared periods.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that this is truly unprecedented. And at the moment, there is no clear explanation.


I still want an explanation for the drought we had here in Texas last year... We've also had a ton of tropical storms and unusually few hurricanes.
well it appears the gfs is slowly losing the dipiction this run and the last one

thats the way it goes
tomorrow may not even show at all
I'm getting the suspicion that our marginal El Nino this year is going to be very short lived:



With decreasing subsurface temperatures from the east pacific and decreasing westerly anomalies I'm getting the impression we're about to see a shift back towards cooler than normal SSTs in the pacific.

Unfortunately, the Nino 3.4 consensus says about the same thing:



Just in time for summer.

EDIT: Those error bars are pretty big though.
Quoting nofailsafe:
I'm getting the suspicion that our marginal El Nino this year is going to be very short lived:



With decreasing subsurface temperatures from the east pacific and decreasing westerly anomalies I'm getting the impression we're about to see a shift back towards cooler than normal SSTs in the pacific.

Unfortunately, the Nino 3.4 consensus says about the same thing:



Just in time for summer.

EDIT: Those error bars are pretty big though.


I think Chantal will be the big one next year. Something about that name just doesn't sit well with me (could be due to that being my mother's middle name, when she caused a lot of division in my family :P).
Quoting wxchaser97:

I agree on that an enhanced scale needs to be introduced. There are problems with the current scale that do need to be fixed. In late September I went as far as to make my own scale, Link.


That really was a great idea there, and it should be thrust into the limelight because the Saffer-Simpson HS needs a good retooling. Tropical cyclones, in this basin especially, seem to be evolving to suit the changing climate within the Atlantic.

And I'm very interested to know what kind of damage was done to Bermuda by Rafael. Leslie was one of the more damaging storms there (still didn't do much, but still more than most storms that brush by) since the infamous Fabian, and Rafael was more powerful, but both were large and intense cyclones at their time of passing.
404 LostTomorrows: And I'm very interested to know what kind of damage was done to Bermuda by Rafael.

Couldna been much.
At its closest approach, Rafael's center was ~109miles(175kilometres) away from Bermuda

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Halloween is back on for south Fla.! My dog is very happy she can go out trick or treating! She worked hard on her costume...


hahah this is great.
Good morning/evening, all. We enjoyed the unexpected rain last night. It was interesting that my wunderground email weather was sent to me right before and right after and had no rain forecast in it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I got a 4.6 quake at 722 last night...
Quoting Astrometeor:


Isn't the Maine one a bit shallow for an earthquake? 6.7 kilometers down.

The USGS downgraded it to a 4.0 too.

yes shallow very shallow. We still felt it though...
Good morning. A localized, but potentially significant severe weather event is possible today. Keep a close eye to the sky if you're in the 10% area.

The 6z GFS showed virtually nothing as far as Caribbean development. We'll have to see what happens from here. It still makes sense to me that we would get something with the MJO, high SSTs, and climatology favoring this area. However if they do indeed continue to show little or nothing in future runs it's possible that our season is over as I don't see much in November.
Lol, maybe I spoke too soon about the 6z GFS in my last comment... it is showing something, but the time frame for development was pushed way back. Development starts around 300 hours. Here's 336:



And check out that massive trough in the east by 348:

GFS AT 24 hours..some bad weather in mid country...........
Good morning looks like we are going to have Sandy and Tony before the end of the month. 6z GFS Loop
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Lol, maybe I spoke too soon about the 6z GFS in my last comment... it is showing something, but the time frame for development was pushed way back. Development starts around 300 hours. Here's 336:



And check out that massive trough in the east by 348:



It forms first starting in 168 hours a Lenny type system that moves over PR from the Central Caribbean and then a crossover from EPAC forms the other one you describe.

Link
Off to another day of teaching. Everyone have a great Wednesday!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 6z GFS showed virtually nothing as far as Caribbean development. We'll have to see what happens from here. It still makes sense to me that we would get something with the MJO, high SSTs, and climatology favoring this area. However if they do indeed continue to show little or nothing in future runs it's possible that our season is over as I don't see much in November.


You know they will show future development. It's simple inconsistency and model uncertainty, so I wouldn't make a conclusion yet.
Good morning everyone, Rafael is looking more like an extra-tropical storm and I see the 6z GFS develops a storm again.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, Rafael is looking more like an extra-tropical storm and I see the 6z GFS develops a storm again.


If you see the 06z loop I posted on post #421 it develops two,one starting at 168 hours and the other a crossover from EPAC on long range.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

...CENTER OF PAUL REMAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL
SUR...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 113.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WNW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND PAUL SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
sun has forgot to rise in e cen florida
We will not have a ton of tornadoes today, but the ones that do form have the potential to become long-tracked and significant.

Quoting islander101010:
sun has forgot to rise in e cen florida


LOL I know! It is so dark in the mornings now with the days getting shorter and today with the clouds it is very dark still but....daylight savings time ends Sunday November 4, 2:00am...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We will not have a ton of tornadoes today, but the ones that do form have the potential to become long-tracked and significant.


Doubt that. There could be tornadoes, but I doubt they will be long-lived anything greater than EF2.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. A localized, but potentially significant severe weather event is possible today. Keep a close eye to the sky if you're in the 10% area.


Keep a close eye if your if the severe area period. Strong winds are a threat too. It's not just about tornadoes.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Doubt that. There could be tornadoes, but I doubt they will be long-lived anything greater than EF2.

Just relaying what the SPC thinks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just relaying what the SPC thinks.

Okay.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just relaying what the SPC thinks.

Keep on keepin' on....all we do is discuss, not set forecasts. I don't understand some people on here wanting to call b.s. all the time...Jeez
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


#NOAA42 watches the sunset under the CDO of #Rafael 10/15/2012