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September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey... I finally get 2 minutes to get into the blog and everybody else leaves... lol

I'm up late completing a project [just waiting while it prints now] and then I'll be off to bed myself...

We had a spectacular day today, and even though the heat was penetrating this afternoon it never got quite as muggy as it did last week... hopefully the cooldown lasts... I'm also eying the GFS with a bit of trepidation; the Cuban crossing storms usually aren't too bad for us, but given that we haven't had much action all season, anything that gets into our waters with favorable conditions aloft will have some latitude to do some damage on the way out to sea....

But we shall see...

502. TXCWC
BOTH GFS AND EURO Operational AND ENSEMBLES show Carribean development in about 10 days in same general area...is an area that needs to be watched closely.

12Z EURO 10 DAYS



12Z GFS 12 DAYS



0Z GFS 10 DAYS



0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 10 DAYS



12Z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN 10 DAYS

Not like anyone's up, but I did another late night blog.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The upper atmosphere is beginning to cool overall as we head into October, Wilma took advantage of that general cooling as well. It's pretty interesting, that October can sometimes offer a better vertical profile than earlier in the season, it's just that getting the tropical cyclones to actually form in October isn't as easy.
That is very true actually. Something I had never considered before. Just had an epiphany!

I recently noticed that most of the most intense tropical cyclones in their respective basins (Tip, Wilma, Monica, etc.) all occurred late in their respective seasons. And the reason for this is exactly what you just described...a more unstable atmosphere. The upper atmosphere cools, while the high heat capacity of the ocean means that in the deep tropics the ocean remains warm. So really, in the deep tropics, the atmosphere is most unstable from September to mid October...which is slightly after the peak in tropical activity (in terms of storm formation).
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like they are testing GOES-13. We should be looking at that through GOES-14 & seeing GOES-14 through GOES-east (13)..


*Topic: *A Test of GOES-13 Imager and Sounder data is scheduled for
October 15, 2012
*Date/Time Issued:***October 15, 2012 1230 UTC
*Product(s) or Data Impacted:* GOES-13 Imager and Sounder Data.
GOES-14
users will receive GOES-13 data during the test period.
*Date/Time of Initial Impact:* October 15, 2012 1545 UTC
*Date/Time of Expected End:* October 16, 2012 1545 UTC
*Length of Test:***24 hours
*Details/Specifics of Change: *The Office of Satellite and Product
Operations (OSPO) is planning to begin a 24 hour quantitative
evaluation test of GOES-13 Imager and Sounder data and level 2 products
at approximately 1545 UTC on October 15, 2012. This will require a
complex rebroadcast and distribution scenario, where GOES-13 data will
be broadcast via GOES-14 while we continue to broadcast the operational
GOES-14 data via GOES-13. Upon conclusion of the test after 24 hours,
the rebroadcast scenario will return to distribution of GOES-14
via both
GOES-14 and GOES-13 GVAR transmissions while GOES-13 returns to standby
status. No actions are required by users for the purposes of this
test.
Results will be evaluated following the 24 hour test to determine
next
steps with the GOES constellation.

This should be GOES-13 as viewed through GOES-14..you can toggle between 13 & 14 here. Goes-14 (13) looks positioned farther east. I think GOES-13 maybe alive:)
Quoting Skyepony:
Check out the 8 image animation coming out of Goes-14. You can see where it starts with the farther west GOES-14 then shifts a good bit as GOES-13 starts feeding through it, only the Northern Hemisphere working at first.
GOES-13 is working!!!

Best news I've heard all day.
Good Morning folks!.......................
I have been working in Puerto San Carlos for the past 12 years. A lot of people live in homes that are made very weak and cannot stand up to hurricanes. The last hurricane was four years ago and destroyed a lot of the homes. I purchased 5 truckloads of roofing materials and handed out cash money door to door to help the poor people get water and food. If you can help these people please send me an email at donsgulfselect@yahoo.com or call my Louisiana office at 337-237-1533 or my Mexican cell number 01152-1-613-109-9413. I will invest in helping and I will also need some help. Every penny will go to the people of Baja for rebuilding and food. I will not spend 1 penny on helpers. I have people there that will help me deliver all material and food for free. Please email me and I will contact you. Thank you and god bless you for thinking of others in a time of need. The time to help is NOW before the people hurt for food and fresh water.
I am not a scam person. I will give all money to the people. I have a websites donsgulfselect.com, bajascallops.com and humansonline.com - Please help with whatever you can.
Don Savely
Don Gulf Select, LLC
I have been working in Puerto San Carlos for the past 12 years. A lot of people live in homes that are made very weak and cannot stand up to hurricanes. The last hurricane was four years ago and destroyed a lot of the homes. I purchased 5 truckloads of roofing materials and handed out cash money door to door to help the poor people get water and food. If you can help these people please send me an email at donsgulfselect@yahoo.com or call my Louisiana office at 337-237-1533 or my Mexican cell number 01152-1-613-109-9413. I will invest in helping and I will also need some help. Every penny will go to the people of Baja for rebuilding and food. I will not spend 1 penny on helpers. I have people there that will help me deliver all material and food for free. Please email me and I will contact you. Thank you and god bless you for thinking of others in a time of need. The time to help is NOW before the people hurt for food and fresh water.
I am not a scam person. I will give all money to the people. I have a websites donsgulfselect.com, bajascallops.com and humansonline.com - Please help with whatever you can.
Don Savely
Don Gulf Select, LLC
7-Day for the Tampa Bay area...................
Hurricane Paul will hit today. I have been working in Puerto San Carlos, Baja Sur, Mexico for the past 12 years. A lot of people live in homes that are made very weak and cannot stand up to hurricanes. The last hurricane was four years ago and destroyed a lot of the homes. I purchased 5 truckloads of roofing materials and handed out cash money door to door to help the poor people get water and food. If you can help these people please send me an email at donsgulfselect@yahoo.com or call my Louisiana office at 337-237-1533 or my Mexican cell number 01152-1-613-109-9413. I will invest in helping and I will also need some help. Every penny will go to the people of Baja for rebuilding and food. I will not spend 1 penny on helpers. I have people there that will help me deliver all material and food for free. Please email me and I will contact you. Thank you and god bless you for thinking of others in a time of need. The time to help is NOW before the people hurt for food and fresh water.
I am not a scam person. I will give all money to the people. I have a websites donsgulfselect.com, bajascallops.com and humansonline.com - Please help with whatever you can.
Don Savely
Don Gulf Select, LLC
Does anyone has the 00z Euro to see if it continues to show the Caribbean development?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


So when is this from ? Were supposed to have a hurricane here in So Fla ? Next week ? You put this up but no commentary ?
Good morning everyone, I see Paul is slowly weakening and Rafael is holding strength. The 00z and 06zGFS both show a hurricane again while the Euro doesn't show too much.
00z GFS at 384hrs:


06z GFS, run just finishing up, at 360hrs:

Good morning, Rafael...
Morning/Evening all. A nice 54 degrees here this morning, though it will be in the 80s later on. Everyone have a great Tuesday, or hope you had a great Tuesday. *S*
Charley part 2?
End of the 06z run:


Also recon is on its way into Rafael.

Tornado at Marseille/France, hitting a parking lot, Oct 14th.
00z Euro is very different from GFS on intensity and track. This is at 240 hours.

6Z GFS 384HR
I think any model at 360 hours is a pipe dream!
The GFS is showing remarkable consistency for a powerful hurricane affecting Florida around Halloween, especially with it being in the long-range. This situation needs to be watched.
Haha. You Guys crack me up. Showing models that are 384 hours out. Salivating from the mouth when you see that category 2 barreling down on South Florida's most populated cities. Hoping, wishing, and praying for that halloween hollowler. What a shame. Really. What a shame.
Quoting Autistic2:
I think any model at 360 hours is a pipe dream!

Long range shows where conditions would be favorable and if a model consistently develops a storm you know conditions should be conducive. They do have a purpose, which isn't just for entertainment.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Haha. You Guys crack me up. Showing models that are 384 hours out. Salivating from the mouth when you see that category 2 barreling down on South Florida's most populated cities. Hoping, wishing, and praying for that halloween hollowler. What a shame. Really. What a shame.

What? no no no no no...
I'm not hoping for a strong hurricane to impact FL or any land on Halloween. All I'm saying is the GFS is super consistent with developing a hurricane and sending toward Fl.
Quoting wxchaser97:

What? no no no no no...
I'm not hoping for a strong hurricane to impact FL or any land on Halloween. All I'm saying is the GFS is super consistent with developing a hurricane and sending toward Fl.

Oh Okay
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is showing remarkable consistency for a powerful hurricane affecting Florida around Halloween, especially with it being in the long-range. This situation needs to be watched.

The situation does not have to be watched.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Long range shows where conditions would be favorable and if a model consistently develops a storm you know conditions should be conducive. They do have a purpose, which isn't just for entertainment.


Ok well said, Conditions ok,
A major storm smaking someone in the face at 360 hours is, well, still a pipe dream, need I say what type of pipe?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

The situation does not have to be watched.

Ok, well...you keep doing whatever you're doing and I'll watch it.
DID you all see the 00z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS!!!
Link
Quoting TomballTXPride:

The situation does not have to be watched.

I'll still watch it as it should be watched.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ok, well...you keep doing whatever you're doing and I'll watch it.

Good. Big difference between you watching it and telling the rest of the blog readers that it needs to be watched, because it doesn't.

But knock yourself out, Cody.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Good. Big difference between you watching it and telling the rest of the blog readers that it needs to be watched, because it doesn't.

But knock yourself out, Cody.

Why doesn't it need to be watched in your opinion?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Good. Big difference between you watching it and telling the rest of the blog readers that it needs to be watched, because it doesn't.

But knock yourself out, Cody.


I'll watch it also as it needs to be watched by us watchers watching
Quoting wxchaser97:

Why doesn't it need to be watched in your opinion?

Because I can't seem to find the system. Where is it right now?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Because I can't seem to find the system. Where is it right now?


Good point!
Levi actually made a comment on facebook this morning:

"GFS and ECMWF both illustrating the threatening October pattern in the Caribbean I have been talking about since September. We already got Rafael to the east, but here the GFS shows the potential for another storm to form within a significant monsoonal moisture surge during the 10-15 day period."
I mean you Guys can't even tell me the origin of the system let alone whether or not it'll develop out of a CV, wave, frontal system, disturbance, etc. What does that tell you Guys? This is nothing more than a pipe dream, like Autistic mentioned. At least if you guys can point to a feature where the models suggest this thing will provide cyclogenesis from I'll give you that. But you are doing nothing more than looking at a long range model and basically nodding your heads agreeing with everything it says. Is that how forecasting works? No.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Because I can't seem to find the system. Where is it right now?

This storm would come from lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean combined with the monsoon trough. It has been mentioned several times by several bloggers where this storm would come from.

I got to go, bye everyone.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Haha. You Guys crack me up. Showing models that are 384 hours out. Salivating from the mouth when you see that category 2 barreling down on South Florida's most populated cities. Hoping, wishing, and praying for that halloween hollowler. What a shame. Really. What a shame.


I'm not sure if you have noticed, but we don't just do that for systems that want to hit Florida, we do that for every run past 300 hours that shows anything out in the Atlantic. Saying that we all want something to hit Florida when we post a frame from a MODEL RUN is ridiculous and unfair to claim. You're asking a blog full of weather enthusiasts to not discuss a possibility of a major system. We don't want death, we don't want destruction, we're just posting a frame from a model run. Anyone with half a brain knows they change, we've been seeing it change again and again. If you don't like it, then you can ignore it. It's that easy. I'm sorry but this just irks me, it's like going on a forum for people who like to research and discuss about different spiders (and yes, those exist), and having severe arachnophobia.
HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

THIS IS SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
PAUL...WHICH IS MOVING FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS THAT LANDFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1200Z 22.9N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 25.8N 111.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I mean you Guys can't even tell me the origin of the system let alone whether or not it'll develop out of a CV, wave, frontal system, disturbance, etc. What does that tell you Guys? This is nothing more than a pipe dream, like Autistic mentioned. At least if you guys can point to a feature where the models suggest this thing will provide cyclogenesis from I'll give you that. But you are doing nothing more than looking at a long range model and basically agreeing with everything it says.

It comes from the monsoon trough if you had been paying any attention. Meaning you're not necessarily GOING to be able to track it until shower and thunderstorm activity begins to increase and consolidate in the SW Caribbean.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I mean you Guys can't even tell me the origin of the system let alone whether or not it'll develop out of a CV, wave, frontal system, disturbance, etc. What does that tell you Guys? This is nothing more than a pipe dream, like Autistic mentioned. At least if you guys can point to a feature where the models suggest this thing will provide cyclogenesis from I'll give you that. But you are doing nothing more than looking at a long range model and basically nodding your heads agreeing with everything it says. Is that how forecasting works? No.

Since when have you become the expert? Since you obviously know more than us and other meteorologists. I would love to see you make forecasts on tropical systems and such. What is your problem this morning?

...RAFAEL CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
8:00 AM AST Tue Oct 16
Location: 27.3°N 65.0°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I mean you Guys can't even tell me the origin of the system let alone whether or not it'll develop out of a CV, wave, frontal system, disturbance, etc. What does that tell you Guys? This is nothing more than a pipe dream, like Autistic mentioned. At least if you guys can point to a feature where the models suggest this thing will provide cyclogenesis from I'll give you that. But you are doing nothing more than looking at a long range model and basically nodding your heads agreeing with everything it says. Is that how forecasting works? No.


that was a little rude from you... show me your BS degree..
I see a few of the site's intrepid trolls are out this morning trying to stir up the attention they crave. A reminder: the site's "ignore" feature continues to work very well...

Anyway, speaking about the current blog topic, the very excellent Climate Progress site is out this morning with an article titled, "Ten Charts That Make Clear The Planet Just Keeps Warming". It's obviously a response--a scientific beatdown, really--to that imbecilic Daily Mail op-ed piece written by serial distortionist David Rose that's been all the rage among the denialist set for the past several days. I urge you to read the entire article. But in the meantime, here are a few of those graphs, each of them easily understandable by even the most ardent denialist:

warming

warming

warming

Has global warming ceased? Paused? Not remotely. The planet is cooling only in the fevered fantasies of Big Oil and Big Coal CEOs and the politicians who feed off them.
Recon has hit the center and found this as the lowest pressure( at least that I found).
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 970.7 mb (~ 28.66 inHg)
Big companies have been brought down by falsifying documents and misleading investors. Hmmmmm.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6Z GFS 384HR

We certainly wouldn't want any campaign yard signs to blow away. Trick, or treat!
556. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
see a few of the site's intrepid trolls are out this morning trying to stir up the attention they crave. A reminder: the site's "ignore" feature continues to work very well...


Did you ever hear the saying it takes one to know one ....

Rafael in rainbow


Quoting TomballTXPride:
I mean you Guys can't even tell me the origin of the system let alone whether or not it'll develop out of a CV, wave, frontal system, disturbance, etc. What does that tell you Guys? This is nothing more than a pipe dream, like Autistic mentioned. At least if you guys can point to a feature where the models suggest this thing will provide cyclogenesis from I'll give you that. But you are doing nothing more than looking at a long range model and basically nodding your heads agreeing with everything it says. Is that how forecasting works? No.
from what I am seeing is that the Gfs is consistence on develop something the SW Caribbean. it may go North,East or West but at least is there and getting closer and if you notice other models are starting to get the idea of something developing there.
Five Day HPC puts even more rain for the upper midwest, which is great news.

Bad night KOTG? You are sure throwing out the snide drive-by ad hominems to everyone. And no, I don't live in I DA HO.

From SE TX...but in south florida now.

Good Morning!

Brrrr..cold over here in NC..A very beautiful morning!
Atcf Data says that Rafael was an 80-KT storm since about 18z.
iam out of here be back at lunch got to go do an eviction this am
Quoting VR46L:


Did you ever hear the saying it takes one to know one ....

Rafael in rainbow




Since when is posting scientific results consider being a troll?

Oh the humanity.
GFS at 384 hours,GFS still puts it into south florida...
GFS at 276 hours,under Cuba..............
OK..so for 5 days straight the GFS has said something forms below cuba then moves up into florida, ok yes, its more than a week away but..every day now we follow this model and see what happens..hmmm comes next friday if its STILL listing this storm..then we start preparing, my only hope is that it doesnt come faster and surprise us all..we'll see what happens, way too early yet to even be concerned..just something we wait to see if it Does form huh....
GFS at 252 hours rainfall model..shows it forming..........
folks, some of you have good models..please post if any of them form this storm earlier than 252 hours ok..GFS says it forms somewhere below Cuba..lets follow this and see if it does form as the models seem to say ok.....
Quoting LargoFl:
folks, some of you have good models..please post if any of them form this storm earlier than 252 hours ok..GFS says it forms somewhere below Cuba..lets follow this and see if it does form as the models seem to say ok.....
just looked at the south american GFS and it shows the storm forming at 240 hours..its not wavering in its prediction at all.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm not sure if you have noticed, but we don't just do that for systems that want to hit Florida, we do that for every run past 300 hours that shows anything out in the Atlantic. Saying that we all want something to hit Florida when we post a frame from a MODEL RUN is ridiculous and unfair to claim. You're asking a blog full of weather enthusiasts to not discuss a possibility of a major system. We don't want death, we don't want destruction, we're just posting a frame from a model run. Anyone with half a brain knows they change, we've been seeing it change again and again. If you don't like it, then you can ignore it. It's that easy. I'm sorry but this just irks me, it's like going on a forum for people who like to research and discuss about different spiders (and yes, those exist), and having severe arachnophobia.

GFS illustrating the threatening October pattern in the Caribbean that has been talked about. We already got Rafael to the east, but the GFS shows the potential for another storm to form within a significant monsoonal moisture surge during the 10-15 day period.

Credit to Levi
Rafeal looking nice.Was a cool morning here and it seems are temps all week long are going to stay average to slightly below average through the week.
246 hours, this shows about where it forms supposedly.....
Quoting Grothar:
..GRO, are you concerned at all about this or is it true, its just way too far out to start worrying about it..me, I am seeing the good models saying it now for 4-5 days straight, same thing in the same area..
funny thing about this supposed storm..whatever it turns out to be..we must remember this is october and IF the models are correct this comes up along the southern western part of florida then crosses over florida into the atlantic..IF this does happen...its the normal thing for a storm to do in this month..which is why florida especially has to watch all storms in the carribean and the gulf..the pattern is to push it eastward
Quoting Grothar:
hmmm isaac comes to mind
Paul almost at landfall
Quoting AztecCe:
Paul almost at landfall
hopefully paul will add rainfall to those southwestern states that need the rains badly
Quoting LargoFl:
..GRO, are you concerned at all about this or is it true, its just way too far out to start worrying about it..me, I am seeing the good models saying it now for 4-5 days straight, same thing in the same area..


No, I am not concerned about it yet. It is too far out. But it seems all the models are hinting at a system developing in the SW Caribbean soon.

Quoting LargoFl:
..GRO, are you concerned at all about this or is it true, its just way too far out to start worrying about it..me, I am seeing the good models saying it now for 4-5 days straight, same thing in the same area..

I would keep watching it as "maybe" the models are picking up on something we don't see just yet. never let your guard down.
The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 200 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds.

Jeff Masters
Brian McNoldy posted an image comparing the average model error for all four cycles of the GFS. Contrary to popular belief, the 06z and 18z runs are not all that unreliable. In fact, there is barely any difference.

Little less than an hour left for the GOES-13 test. You can see it here. They are routing the data through GOES-14. After test Goes-13 should be going back into storage & GOES-14 & 13 will go back to GOES-EAST (from GOES-14 view) while decisions are made. To compare the too during test toggle between Goes-14 & GOES-EAST.
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneRafael @ 16Oct.12pm
15Oct.12pm 22.6n65.6w 65knots(75mph)120km/h 983millibars TropicalStorm
15Oct.06pm 23.6n65.8w 70knots(81mph)130km/h 980millibars TropicalStorm
16Oct.12am 24.6n65.6w 80knots(92mph)148km/h 974millibars Hurricane
16Oct.06am 25.9n65.3w 80knots(92mph)148km/h 972millibars Hurricane
16Oct.12pm 27.6n64.9w 75knots(86mph)139km/h 970millibars Hurricane

BDA-Bermuda :: NGD-Anegada

The longest line is a straightline projection through Rafael's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda.

16Oct.12pm -- HurricaneRafael was heading for a 17Oct.09:11amGMT passage 46miles(74kilometres)E-ESEast of Bermuda in ~19hours

Copy&paste ngd, bda, 22.6n65.6w-23.6n65.8w, 23.6n65.8w-24.6n65.6w, 24.6n65.6w-25.9n65.3w, 25.9n65.3w-27.3n65.0w, 25.9n65.3w-32.2374n63.8797W, 32.3675n64.6475w-32.2374n63.8797w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
I'm not really buying into that storm that the GFS model is forecasting at this time because it is so far out.However some of the worst storms in the Atlantic has occurred in October.There is a lot of heat bundled up in the Caribbean as well.
597. VR46L
Atlanticview in rainbow ... Rafael looking massive ..getting a bit concerned

Quoting JeffMasters:
The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 200 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds.

Jeff Masters
Lets hope they get through. Glad I'm not onboard.
Quoting JeffMasters:
The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 200 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds.

Jeff Masters
No doubt giving new meaning to Carnival's marketing phrase "The Fun Ship".

Splendor

(Link)
600. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not really buying into that storm that the GFS model is forecasting at this time because it is so far out.However some of the worst storms in the Atlantic has occurred in October.There is a lot of heat bundled up in the Caribbean as well.


I am not so sure Wash .the Euro is on board for developement of some kind @240hrs

Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 384 hours,GFS still puts it into south florida...
One of the Ensemble Members puts it right over us.

Quoting VR46L:


I am not so sure Wash .the Euro is on board for developement of some kind @240hrs

Conditions have not been T.C friendly in the Caribbean this year.Perhaps a T.S or a Ida type situation.But a Wilma situation I just don't see.
Sorry for the double post but I also noticed that the GFS continues to show 2 storms.But knowing how the male names have been going will it be terrible Tony or scary Sandy?.ha ha.But due to the popularity of Spongebob which is a light hearted kids show no one will take Sandy serious and Tony sounds like a guy who could either be delivering or making your pizza.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
.


What happened to your post? Hummmmm



Forecast of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days from the ensemble mean GFS based on forecasts of RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO.
606. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Conditions have not been T.C friendly in the Caribbean this year.Perhaps a T.S or a Ida type situation.But a Wilma situation I just don't see.


I agree on that but there actually appears to be moist conditions down there now



but there is an awful amount of shear in the Caribbean at the moment...(click on the shear boxes to see)

Link

I guess it just keeps us interested in the season for a little longer
Quoting LargoFl:
hopefully paul will add rainfall to those southwestern states that need the rains badly
Probably get it is to build you the golf also.
Quoting LargoFl:
hopefully paul will add rainfall to those southwestern states that need the rains badly
Probably going to add instability to the gulf of Mexico also.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not really buying into that storm that the GFS model is forecasting at this time because it is so far out.However some of the worst storms in the Atlantic has occurred in October.There is a lot of heat bundled up in the Caribbean as well.


I agree. Hasn't it been a recurring theme this season to have some type of anticipated development in the Western Carib? It just seems like the sheer there has been too strong to allow anything to get going.
Quoting VR46L:


Did you ever hear the saying it takes one to know one ....

Rafael in rainbow




Quoting Xyrus2000:


Since when is posting scientific results consider being a troll?

Oh the humanity.
(Comment modified) Nevermind. Not worth expending any more energy.
Quoting AztecCe:
Major Hurricane Charley
590 JeffMasters: The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye...
598 AussieStorm: Lets hope they get through. Glad I'm not onboard.
599 Neapolitan: ...Carnival's..."The Fun Ship".

"I come from the land down under, where beer does flow and the men chunder..."
Quoting AztecCe:
The tiny hurricane packed a punched and showed the big surprises do come in little sizes.That is a possible track for whatever that develops.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry for the double post but I also noticed that the GFS continues to show 2 storms.But knowing how the male names have been going will it be terrible Tony or scary Sandy?.ha ha.But due to the popularity of Spongebob which is a light hearted kids show no one will take Sandy serious and Tony sounds like a guy who could either be delivering or making your pizza.

Fat Tony comes to mind. Don't want to cross him. lol
Quoting aspectre:
590 JeffMasters: The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye...
598 AussieStorm: Lets hope they get through. Glad I'm not onboard.
599 Neapolitan: ..."The Fun Ship".

"I come from the land down under, where beer does flow and the men chunder..."

Can't you hear, can't you hear the thunder?
You better run, you better take cover.

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS MOVING TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THAT PROMPTED AN
SPECIAL ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. PAUL IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER MEXICO
AND A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF PAUL. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...
PAUL SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW AND
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A
WEAKENING PAUL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT IS HIDDEN UNDER THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT A WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS...AND ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
HURRICANE AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND COOL WATERS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW AFTERWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Major Hurricane Charley
mabye this storm we're all talking about will take a simular path but deffinently not the same strength
Quoting AztecCe:
mabye this storm we're all talking about will take a simular path but deffinently not the same strength


Or that future storm will not take such a path. For all we know the the SW Carib may just provide us with one of Gro's famous blobs and give all a wet Holloween.
Hurricane Wilma forecast map.

October
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Or that future storm will not take such a path. For all we know the the SW Carib may just provide us with one of Gro's famous blobs and give all a wet Holloween.
lol mabye we'll see
622. VR46L
Barefootontherocks

Thanks very much ! I actually did not call Neo a troll but pointed out that if you call someone a troll you were leaving yourself open to the same

I actually like the weather people over here . and have not been deliberately nasty to them . And I make alot of weather posts. Its when it come to Climate Change I disagree with some folk on here .
Yes I do belong to another site as well as this one I will not mention the site as I know that it is against the rules but its not against the rules to belong to other communities .or is it?
Quoting Grothar:


No, I am not concerned about it yet. It is too far out. But it seems all the models are hinting at a system developing in the SW Caribbean soon.



Good morning.

Three models calling for development. The GFS and Euro develop an area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean at 168 hrs ( 7 days ), Ngp at 144 hrs. This is getting very close to the timeline where the models are no longer in fantasy land

Euro ( 00Z run )



GFS ( 06 Z run )



Ngp ( 00Z run )







HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...RAFAEL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THE PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB A
FEW HOURS AGO...WITH THE MOST RECENT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
90 KT AND SFMR DATA OF 70-75 KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
80 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA. WEAKENING SHOULD START FAIRLY SOON
WITH STRONG SHEAR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...BUT
IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE RAFAEL WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH
PREDICTED SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE
INITIAL WINDS.

RAFAEL IS MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/21.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE
PASSING TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...THEN MOVING FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE ARE SOME MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE MOVES...AND THE NHC FORECAST
LIES ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE
INTERPOLATED PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS DUE TO
VERY COLD WATER AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 28.6N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Quoting VR46L:
Barefootontherocks

Thanks very much ! I actually did not call Neo a troll but pointed out that if you call someone a troll you were leaving yourself open to the same

I actually like the weather people over here . and have not been deliberately nasty to them . And I make alot of weather posts. Its when it come to Climate Change I disagree with some folk on here .
Yes I do belong to another site as well as this one I will not mention the site as I know that it is against the rules but its not against the rules to belong to other communities .or is it?
You know I spoke the truth. I am putting you on ignore. Bye.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
With the MJO forecasted to stay at phase 1, I'm thinking models will trend eastwards towards Hispaniola/Purto Rico imo. But the Euro shows another major east conus trough in about 10 days.
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Or that future storm will not take such a path. For all we know the the SW Carib may just provide us with one of Gro's famous blobs and give all a wet Holloween.


I wouldn't do that to you guys. Wet candy is awful to eat. Even though I've been posting the Western Caribbean for the past week. :) I would say "I saw it first" but people might think I'm serious.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:


VR46L is a known negative megacritic of wu and also known to be highly critical of certain individuals who blog here - Neo being one of them. S/he blogs "elsewhere" under a different handle. Some of the handles that plussed the VR46L comment calling Neo a troll are in the same category. Why admin allows them to continue blogging at wu, the million dollar question.


Thanks for your opinion. I may be new and not post very often but the last time I checked, I could plus any comment that I agree with. I don't think it's necessary to resort to name calling, so that's why I plussed it. Let the science speak for itself. Not that I need to explain myself.

Sorry if you feel like people that don't share your opinions are crashing your little party. And also, last time I checked, as Neo stated well, the ignore button is your friend. I encourage you to use it on those that you don't think should be allowed to post at WU. Doing so would make it more of the site that you wish it was.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS MOVING TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THAT PROMPTED AN
SPECIAL ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. PAUL IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER MEXICO
AND A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF PAUL. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...
PAUL SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW AND
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A
WEAKENING PAUL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT IS HIDDEN UNDER THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT A WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS...AND ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
HURRICANE AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND COOL WATERS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW AFTERWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Ah ok, thought was just me spacing out for a few days as was surprised to see the post about landfall already LOL