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Tropical Storm Rafael drenching the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012

Tropical Storm Rafael formed late yesterday afternoon over the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is bringing gusty winds and very heavy rains to the islands today. Two-day rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" have been common over the Leeward Islands from Rafael, but the winds have stayed below tropical storm-force so far. Here are some of the peak gusts from Rafael as of noon EDT on Saturday:

Antigua: 37 mph
Martinique: 28 mph
St. Lucia: 39 mph
St. Martin: 26 mph

Satellite loops and radar loops show that Rafael has a large area of heavy thunderstorms to the east and southeast of the center. These thunderstorms are poorly organized, but were beginning to show a more organized spiral banding look late this morning. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of Rafael, and is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Radar image out of Martinique from 11:45 am EDT Saturday, October 13, 2012 showed a large area of heavy rain over nearly the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain due to Tropical Storm Rafael. Image credit: Meteo France.

Forecast for Rafael
The shear has dropped since Friday, and is is expected to remain in the moderate range through Monday, which should allow for some slow intensification of Rafael over the next few days. Heavy rains will continue over the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain, plus the Virgin Islands, today through Sunday. Puerto Rico can expect heavy rains on Sunday, but the dry air on the west side of Rafael should keep the Dominican Republic from seeing heavy rains. Rafael's strongest winds will be to the right of the center, and islands of Barbuda, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Barthelemy, St. Eustatis, Anguilla, St. Martin, and Saba may see sustained winds as high as 45 mph Saturday night through Sunday as the strongest bands of Rafael move through. The only island at risk of seeing hurricane-force winds from Rafael is Bermuda. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 3% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds on Tuesday, and a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds.

Rafael's place in history
Rafael is the seventeenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (17 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Patty taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday, October 12, 2012. At the time, Patty had top winds of 40 mph. High wind shear had exposed the lower-level circulation to view. Late on Saturday morning, wind shear had ripped Patty apart and the storm was declared dead. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Ameister12:
Raphael, err... Rafael is looking good.


You changed your avatar?
Tropical Storm Rafael:

Quoting Ameister12:
Raphael, err... Rafael is looking good.

Avatar change to a ninja turtle huh..
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF PAUL IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED RATHER
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. A TIGHTLY CURVED AND COLD CONVECTIVE BAND ON
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED.
BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 45 KT...A CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0...WHILE A 2215Z AMSU INTENSITY ANALYSIS
FROM CIMSS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45
KT.

THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/11...AS MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WAS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE
STORM. PAUL IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE RIDGE AND THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO COME OVER OR
NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. BY DAY FIVE...THE
WEAKENING REMNANT LOW OF PAUL IS PROJECTED TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF MODEL.

PAUL IS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF WARM
28C WATERS...VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE HOSTILE. BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED SHEAR...SOMEWHAT COOLER SSTS...AND A MUCH
DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM
AND SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE GFDL DYNAMICAL MODEL...AND IT
IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS A 66% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 30 KT
INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE
INNER CORE DEVELOPS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 14.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 14.6N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 15.8N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.7N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 19.9N 114.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 24.6N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 27.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER LAND
120H 19/0000Z 29.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/SARDI
Quoting KoritheMan:


You changed your avatar?

Yeah, I thought it would be appropriate. :)
Got to get some rest after a long day. Good night all.
The rain is down here... I was wondering if we would get out of this whole Patty-trough-TUTT-Rafael thing without a drop.... lol

There it goes living me dry with no drop of rain :(
Quoting Gearsts:
There it goes living me dry with no drop of rain :(


Naturally. You are on the back side of the system.
One of the GFS Ensemble Members shows a Major Hurricane in the Gulf on the 29th, of course this in fantasy land, but just want to bring it to you guys attention that something might get going towards the end of the month.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not real fond of having that designation when we've only had a single major hurricane, one that persisted for only one advisory. Last year it was the named storm to hurricane ratio that was enigmatic; this year it's the hurricane to major hurricane ratio.

sadface
Not that enigmatic when one considers that only one of the hurricanes reached that strength while still south of 20N...

FORECASTER LANDSEA/SARDI

Who's Sardi???
Quoting GTcooliebai:
One of the GFS Ensemble Members shows a Major Hurricane in the Gulf on the 29th, of course this in fantasy land, but just want to bring it to you guys attention that something might get going towards the end of the month.

Implication: a late October / early November storm is not out of the realm of the possible this year.... amazing when early forecasts were suggesting we'd be done by the end of September...
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 14 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" continues to move away slowly from the country

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [967 hPa] located at 22.3°N 130.8°E or 830 km east of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is too far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. tonight.
00GFS OUT TO 144 HRS

The GFS shows Rafael becoming a Category Two hurricane by 72 hours out.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Trying to set a record or something?
May be a borderline major hurricane if it's not extratropical by then.

naw just posting the models
Keep on moving....

don't stop, no...

[because a pause in movement may indicate a change in direction...]
Valverde, why did you have to give up 4 runs?

GFS makes Rafael into a cat2 to maybe cat3 hurricane.
Title: Bayou Corne Sinkhole Flyover
Source: Louisiana Environmental Action Network
Pilot: Lance Rydberg
Photographer: Jeffrey Dubinsky
Date: October 12, 2012

A thick slick of crude oil can be seen covering much of the sinkhole [...] oil and water can be seen flowing from the sinkhole into the adjacent environment.

Very impressive.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks impressive.
Tropics all over the world are pretty active with 4 storms. Could see a couple storms in the Caribbean if we get a mjo pulse as strong as forecasted.
Ok, once the COC goes N of PR, please, TURN OFF the Arecibo RadioObservatory.... We need some rain...

Models are forecasting the strong MJO over the Atlantic basin later this month.

The Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone season doesn't start until November 1 and there's already an extremely impressive tropical cyclone out there.
FINAL HR 144

Quoting Civicane49:
Madagascar might need to watch this one.
Quoting Ameister12:
The Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone season doesn't start until November 1 and there's already an extremely impressive tropical cyclone out there.


Total impressive lil' thang. And heading for poor ol' Madagascar..hope it's not another year for them to get pummeled :/

Otherwise, I do hope Cariboy is getting his rain finally!!!

Here in N Wales, leaves are turning (they were turning at the beginning of Sept last year!) and the heater has turned itself on this week from it's set thermostat (which is quite low as I don't mind cold as much as hot) much later than last year. Oh, and I got 1st place at the first competition for my camera clubs' competition for the season, YAY! A few storms to watch and who knows what else will brew. So long as no big wind storms blow all the turning leaves from the leaves prematurely, a fine week!
Quoting Thing342:
Madagascar might need to watch this one.


Yep.

Quoting sunlinepr:
Title: Bayou Corne Sinkhole Flyover
Source: Louisiana Environmental Action Network
Pilot: Lance Rydberg
Photographer: Jeffrey Dubinsky
Date: October 12, 2012

A thick slick of crude oil can be seen covering much of the sinkhole [...] oil and water can be seen flowing from the sinkhole into the adjacent environment.

Wow, what a disaster, so sad....
Quoting KoritheMan:
Blog update.

NC, if you're still around, I do think Rafael will move a bit more west before the trough sets in.


chat?
Quoting Dragod66:


chat?


You're not on.
hey guys I hope Bermuda is ready for TS Rafael

and also with the atlantic going to get its Mojo going with the MJO I think we will see 4 maybe up to 5 more storms in the caribbean and as we get into late Oct and Nov it will be the W caribbeans time to get immpacted

my seasons final numbers
20 NS 10 H 3 MH


anyway I hope CaribBoy is enjoying himself you know him always beggin for the storm to come by him so he can get the downpours
Quoting sunlinepr:
Ok, once the COC goes N of PR, please, TURN OFF the Arecibo RadioObservatory.... We need some rain...



SI SI piensas igual que yo LOL
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #75
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.4N 130.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.7N 130.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.4N 128.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.6N 126.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Anais (975 hPa) located at 11.1S 66.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 with gusts of 105. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM radius from the center in the western semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 260 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 12.7S 64.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 14.0S 60.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.4S 56.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais re-intensifies gradually since 0000 AM UTC. On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 24 to 36 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday, system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone.

On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. 13/1200 PM UTC, deterministic numerical weather prediction ifs purpose a slight southwards recurving movement at the ending term of its forecast track. Its ensemble EPS members spread is however rather thin around its mean tracking westwards towards northeastern Malagasy coastline. NOGAPS, UKMO and GFDN numerical weather prediction tracker are in good agreement with the ifs scenario.

Current RSMC forecast track is close to this zonal west southwestwards scenario. Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARPEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track.
17L.Rafael ADT
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 1.00 ARC in DK GRAY
at Lat: 19:05:24 N Lon: 62:52:48 W

Hmm... interesting
586. JLPR2
Seriously? I can almost hear Rafael saying: Eekk, Eeeek! Too Close to Puerto Rico!

:\
C'mon Rafael, at least one decent band, then you can go away.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
15:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.5N 143.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 19.2N 142.0E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Marianas
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 63.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...PAUL SLOWING DOWN...
...FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 114.5W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
RAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN ALSO INDICATES A
NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED. FURTHERMORE...INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS EXPANDED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...WHICH IS AN INDICATION THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
LESSENED. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STILL ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...GIVEN THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL
AND THE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADY AT T3.1/47 KT
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11 KT. A FAIR PRESENTATION IN THE
REFLECTIVITY AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT
RAFAEL HAS STARTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY SLIDES
EASTWARD. AFTER THAT...A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 48 HOURS. THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAFAEL...AND ALLOW
CYCLONE TO RECURVE INTO THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NHC
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
SLIGHT OUTLIER AFTER 72 HOURS...AND IS THE RIGHTMOST OF ALL OF THE
MODELS DUE ITS MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

RAFAEL REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BRIEF PERIODS WHERE THE SHEAR ABATES...SUCH AS
HAS BEEN HAPPENING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAFAEL TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
THE STRENGTHENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASES SHARPLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODELS. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HR...IF
NOT SOONER...WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.4N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.7N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 22.5N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 24.1N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 27.1N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 36.2N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 46.1N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 50.4N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY IS A BIT
MISLEADING. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAS FORMED IN RECENT HOURS...AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX....WITH THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATED BY 20-30 N MI. WHILE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES...THE 0526 UTC
ASCAT PASS ONLY SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THESE DATA.

PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WESTERLY HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. THE CYCLONE IS
REACHING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
END OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
26N 122W SHOULD APPROACH THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
CAUSING PAUL TO TURN ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. AFTER 96 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...ASSUMING THAT IT MAINTAINS ITS
VERTICAL INTEGRITY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OVERALL SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS.

THE EASTERLY SHEAR PLAGUING PAUL HAS APPARENTLY NOT SUBSIDED...EVEN
THOUGH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A
SHARP INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY IN 48-72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARING IT...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH SSTS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BE
DECREASING. BY 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS...AND COULD DECOUPLE ONCE THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY
HIGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE LGEM AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS ICON AND IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 14.3N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.6N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 25.7N 114.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 28.6N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Rafael:

Quoting wxchaser97:
Tropics all over the world are pretty active with 4 storms. Could see a couple storms in the Caribbean if we get a mjo pulse as strong as forecasted.

could we see a lighting of the WCAR BOMB?? hope not but wondering. think the blog would move at a supersonic pace if that happened.:)
Good morning. Well, I guess I have to admit my favorite season (summer) is gone for another year. Gone are the wonderful hot 90 degree temps and this week I see a low down in the 60's and a high in the 70's. But for today sunny and 86 :) Have a great Sunday everyone.
mojo strong right now should be letting up in a wk or so
it is 69!!:)
6 to 10days!:)
temps this week I will see a low down in the 50's and 60's and a highs in the 70's and low 80's !!:)

Quoting icmoore:
Good morning. Well, I guess I have to admit my favorite season (summer) is gone for another year. Gone are the wonderful hot 90 degree temps and this week I see a low down in the 60's and a high in the 70's. But for today sunny and 86 :) Have a great Sunday everyone.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
temps this week I will see a low down in the 50's and 60's and a highs in the 70's and low 80's !!:)



Ouch 50's and 60's :) I'm a wuss so I'd have to be bundlin' up LOL. Do you live a little inland? Being near the Gulf the temps are warmer than the more southern inland areas.
I live in Loxahatchee, FL!!:) lol
Quoting icmoore:


Ouch 50's and 60's :) I'm a wuss so I'd have to be bundlin' up LOL. Do you live a little inland? Being near the Gulf the temps are warmer than the more southern inland areas.
morning

There is an insignificant area in the far eastern atlantic 9n 35w which catches my attention. The area has some cyclonic turning ,but little convection. it is at the base of an ULL and it is moving west.what i have notice in the past these areas appear to be nothing initially,but as they traverse the atlantic and get closer to the islands some degee of organisation start to fester. IT may not be anything, but i will still keep it as an area of interest.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I live in Loxahatchee, FL!!:) lol


That's a new one on me and I've lived in FL all my 57 years :) So you are all the way across the state and south of me.
We lived in Wellington, FL for 18 years and we move to Loxahatchee in Sep!:)
Quoting icmoore:


That's a new one on me and I've lived in FL all my 57 years :) So you are all the way across the state and south of me.
windy on the east coast huh...not too bad by me
No 50's in the morning for my area...........
Good Morning.
Bright and sunny so far, but a chance of showers later then clearing again.

Oh, and by the way.... if you can read this, you are alive and have survived another day.
Give Thanks !
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Bright and sunny so far, but a chance of showers later then clearing again.

Oh, and by the way.... if you can read this, you are alive and have survived another day.
Give Thanks !
..good morning pottery
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
142330-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
416 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE ATLANTIC COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS
WILL DEVELOP, LEADING TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WIND: SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE BAY
SIDE AND OCEAN SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

WAVES: SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF STREAM
WATERS TODAY AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AT HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
613. atris
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR) of Rafael from the RAMMB Site

Good morning. A few showers are moving from the NW into the North Coast of PR this morning as Rafael is to our NE moving away.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. A few showers are moving from the NW into the North Coast of PR this morning as Rafael is to our NE moving away.
good morning, any troubles with flooding there?
they still think its going to a hurricane later on....
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL....AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.7N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.1N 66.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.1N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.2N 60.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 46.1N 52.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 50.4N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 63.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
06z GFS continues with a West Caribbean hurricane.

Good morning. In case you'd forgotten, Typhoon Prapiroon is still active in the West Pacific... It's been struggling along as a ragged looking Cat 1 and is going to be recurving a little ways south of Japan in a few days.



Quoting SFLWeatherman:
We lived in Wellington, FL for 18 years and we move to Loxahatchee in Sep!:)


Cool, change can be a good thing! We lived in Melrose for about 25 years and moved to Madeira Beach last Dec. The only other place I lived before then was Jacksonville.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
06z GFS continues with a West Caribbean hurricane.

hmmm would that be paul crossing over?
no, guess no crossover for paul............
Quoting LargoFl:
hmmm would that be paul crossing over?

No. It develops from the monsoon trough.
GFS at 60 hours...............
Nam at 81 hours..............
... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for all the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico... including Vieques and Culebra.

* Through this evening

* bands of showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical
Storm Rafael will continue to affect Puerto Rico... Culebra...
Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. These bands of
showers and thunderstorms will increase this morning through
this evening... as Tropical Storm Rafael moves to the northeast
of the local islands. The bulk of the rain is expected to remain
to the east of the center... mainly across the Atlantic coastal
waters. However... outer rain bands of Rafael will move
occasionally across the the northern and eastern sections of
Puerto Rico as well as across Vieques... Culebra and the U.S.
Virgin Islands today... producing periods of heavy rain and gusty
winds. The focus of the rain will change late today... as Rafael
moves northeast of the area and the winds shift to the
southwest... resulting in showers and thunderstorms clustering
across portions of southern Puerto Rico. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches are likely across parts of the local islands through
this evening. For those reasons the Flash Flood Watch continues
in effect for all of Puerto Rico... Vieques... Culebra and for
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain across the watch area... which may lead to flooding. If you are
in the watch area... check your preparedness requirements...
especially if you have interests along area rivers. Keep informed...
and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash
Flood Warning is issued.
Rafael

I must say Rafael has to be one of the oddest storms of all time.
I live on St John US Virgin Islands and have been closely monitoring Rafael. Last night it was about 60 miles East of us yet we did not have any wind or rain, that is still true as on posting this at 9:00 am - 10-14-14.
We are just now starting to get Northerly winds of 14 mph but thats about all
The system is at 19.5N and 63.8W My Lat is 18.21 and Long is 64.48
If we did not have the technology to watch this system we would not have even known it was there !

I am not complaining. I have seen my share of Storms and feel quite lucky to have dodged this one !
Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October

Link
Cool!:)
Quoting icmoore:


Cool, change can be a good thing! We lived in Melrose for about 25 years and moved to Madeira Beach last Dec. The only other place I lived before then was Jacksonville.
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormRaphael @ 14Oct.12pmGMT

NGD-Anegada :: AXA-Anguilla :: SXM-SintMaarten :: SAB-Saba
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
06z GFS continues with a West Caribbean hurricane.



Good morning

The system the GFS develops starts out as a low pressure North of Panama on the 25th October, just 11 days out. While this is still long range, the GFS has been quite good at the 10 day mark and in as we have seen several times before.

It will be interesting to see if the model persists with this feature.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October

Link
i think someone said with global warming comes hotter summers, more severe storms both summer and winter and in winter, colder temps...we'll see if he was right in the years to come, remember these changes come..over many many years, maybe even lifetimes to come..we'll see...maybe
637. SLU
Semi-closed "eyewall" visible on San Juan radar. 60mph storm a good bet now.
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

The system the GFS develops starts out as a low pressure North of Panama on the 25th October, just 11 days out. While this is still long range, the GFS has been quite good at the 10 day mark and in as we have seen several times before.

It will be interesting to see if the model persists with this feature.


Good morning.

Also,we have to see if other models begin to join GFS on this,especially the ECMWF. GFS has been the stellar model this season after the May upgrade and that alone is a plus for what is showing in the SW/Western Caribbean in terms of being reliable.
639. SLU
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 13:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012

Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 13:00:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°47'N 64°01'W (19.7833N 64.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 164 miles (264 km) to the NE (55°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 673m (2,208ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 202° at 38kts (From the SSW at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 129 nautical miles (148 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 810m (2,657ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 813m (2,667ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:08:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:08:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
640. Relix
Increible. A storm by our side and it has barely rained
Winds will be bumped up to 50 or 55kts.
on Mars, they try to explain(remember mars DID have oceans etc)..they think Mars got hit with a huge asteriod, the clouds of dust and the eruption of whatever volcano's it had back then, completly blocked out the suns rays for a very very long time..the water what there was,they think went underground..maybe..and without water..the planet evolved into what we see now..a planet without any atmosphere......now with global warming, our planet little by little gets warmer..the upper atmosphere get cloudier and cloudier...be careful folks in the denials..I myself dont put much stock in all this..its all guesswork BUT..if..even the smallest part of what they claim will happen in the future generations to come..does come...we humans..are in a wolrd of trouble...and maybe..thats why governments are so anxious to explore space...maybe they know..someday we..may have to leave this earth to a new world?....why else would they be spending soooo much money on exploration?..something just to think about on those days when there's nothing to do lol...
Rafael has deepened to 998mb per recon.
Good morning everyone.

I see Rafael is looking better and that recon is finding him stronger. The GFS continues to strengthen him as he heads toward and past Bermuda. I think he could become extra-tropical earlier than the NHC. I also see the 6z run, yet again, had development in the Caribbean. The season is a long way from being over. This morning is a warm, humid, and wet one. My rain gauge recorded .71" in the past 24hrs with more rain to come, this helps with the drought. I am working on a blog and will have it finished in am hour or two.
I think the future storm the GFS is predicting probably comes from that wave in the eastern Atlantic.I'm not sure...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October

Link


Usually only record warm temperatures get noticed.

But everyone will quickly point out that the overall global temperature averages have been on the rise.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good morning.

Also,we have to see if other models begin to join GFS on this,especially the ECMWF. GFS has been the stellar model this season after the May upgrade and that alone is a plus for what is showing in the SW/Western Caribbean in terms of being reliable.

The ECMWF has been horrible this year.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think the future storm the GFS is predicting probably comes from that wave in the eastern Atlantic.I'm not sure...


GFS has been flip flopping back and forth about development 8-10 days out in the Western Carribean or Southern GOM.
One things for sure, moisture should be on the increase in the western Carribean in about a week or so.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think the future storm the GFS is predicting probably comes from that wave in the eastern Atlantic.I'm not sure...

It does not actually, that wave isn't developed by the models. As TA said, it develops from the monsoon trough.


Quoting LargoFl:
on Mars, they try to explain(remember mars DID have oceans etc)..they think Mars got hit with a huge asteriod, the clouds of dust and the eruption of whatever volcano's it had back then, completly blocked out the suns rays for a very very long time..the water what there was,they think went underground..maybe..and without water..the planet evolved into what we see now..a planet without any atmosphere......now with global warming, our planet little by little gets warmer..the upper atmosphere get cloudier and cloudier...be careful folks in the denials..I myself dont put much stock in all this..its all guesswork BUT..if..even the smallest part of what they claim will happen in the future generations to come..does come...we humans..are in a wolrd of trouble...and maybe..thats why governments are so anxious to explore space...maybe they know..someday we..may have to leave this earth to a new world?....why else would they be spending soooo much money on exploration?..something just to think about on those days when there's nothing to do lol...
Agree, there is most to it that what it seems....and this vehicle we call earth is limited...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. It develops from the monsoon trough.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Winds will be bumped up to 50 or 55kts.
If you check the San Juan Radar doppler , is obvious that the COC is closing up with a band of rain wrapping around it, also it seems that is moving , or maybe just a jog, due west...
Woah look at that killer trough over the eastern U.S
654. adb42
I don't immediately a mention of tropical cyclone Anais, which has blown up into a 95 knots hurricane over the southern Indian Ocean since Friday. It is the earliest TC of this intensity over this basin ever, according to RSMC La Reunion in its 1300Z update. The storm will now weaken over marginal SSTs and increasing shear.
10N 35W COULD BE 99L IN A FEW DAYS ???
Rafael - Reminds me of that old song "Walk on By"

Oh well now it moves on. TG
Quoting Ameister12:
Very impressive.

Wow. Leave for a few weeks and see what happens? O_o
Quoting Relix:
Increible. A storm by our side and it has barely rained
We saw our first snow day before yesterday at the 10,000 foot level. Just a dusting of the higher peaks. It had all sublimated by yesterday morning.
Good morning!

Anais is the equivalent of an Atlantic major hurricane right now. 105 knots.

Quoting Ameister12:
Anais is likely the equivalent to an Atlantic major hurricane right now. Over 100 kts.


Yup, I just checked ADT and it had Anais at 117.4kts or around 135mph. I'm sure that is not 100mph like their cyclone forecasting center says.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (953 hPa) located at 11.4S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 with gusts of 130. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/18HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 65 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 13.3S 63.7E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.3S 60.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.0S 57.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais intensifies gradually since 0:00 AM UTC and becomes the historical earlier intense tropical cyclone over the southwest Indian Ocean.

On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 12 to 24 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday , system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone. On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly.

13/0000z deterministic numerical weather prediction ifs is in agreement with ALADIN and forecast a more southern track than previously and a southwards recurving movement at the ending term of its forecast track.

Its 0:00 AM UTC ensemble EPS spread is now larger than the previous one with several members that forecast this southwards recurving track at medium range. RSMC Réunion privileges now this scenario.

Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARGEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track as UKMO numerical weather prediction models keeps on tracking globally westwards.
Anais is predicted to become a Category 4! Keep in mind, the season doesn't start until November 1st!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maria (1002 hPa) located at 17.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.2N 141.4E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 22.4N 140.6E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 24.6N 140.2E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #77
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.6N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.6N 131.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.6N 128.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.8N 127.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Quoting Ameister12:
Anais is predicted to become a Category 4! Keep in mind, the season doesn't start until November 1st!

Ok, well just 15 minutes ago it was shown as a cat2. That is a forecast I agree with.
Quoting Ameister12:
Anais is predicted to become a Category 4! Keep in mind, the season doesn't start until November 1st!


IMO there is not really a starting season for the southwestern Indian Ocean. They had a cyclone in June ("Kuena")
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ok, well just 15 minutes ago it was shown as a cat2. That is a forecast I agree with.

Yeah, I'm expecting a 115-120kt. peak before it encounters a hostile environment to its south.
"What big eye you have"



"The better to see you, my dear"
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, I just checked ADT and it had Anais at 117.4kts or around 135mph. I'm sure that is not 100mph like their cyclone forecasting center says.

You should remember most RSMCs and TCWCs use 10-minute sustained winds. The only RSMC that uses 1-minute sustained winds is the NHC (the IMD uses 3-min winds). JTWC is an unofficial tropical cyclone forecast center.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

You should remember most RSMCs and TCWCs use 10-minute sustained winds. The only RSMC that uses 1-minute sustained winds is the NHC (the IMD uses 3-min winds). JTWC is an unofficial tropical cyclone forecast center.


With the RSMC showing T6.0 in their advisory, 115 knots (Category 4) is likely noted from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


IMO there is not really a starting season for the southwestern Indian Ocean. They had a cyclone in June ("Kuena")

And remember this one. TD 21P 06/28/2012 way out of season.






If all the ingredients are there, it is possible any time of year for a Tropical Cyclone to form.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 14:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 14:17:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°56'N 64°06'W (19.9333N 64.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (267 km) to the NE (51°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 656m (2,152ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 29° at 34kts (From the NNE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Quoting AussieStorm:

And remember this one. TD 21P 06/28/2012 way out of season.






If all the ingredients are there, it is possible any time of year for a Tropical Cyclone to form.

True. It's like the Western Pacific, where there is a large amount of water.

By the way, a Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone year is defined as beginning July 1, and ending June 30.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


With the RSMC showing T6.0 in their advisory, 115 knots (Category 4) is likely noted from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.


20121014 1200 -11.4 -65.8 T6.0/6.0 01S ANAIS


Any idea why there is no floater on Anais?








What a beast!



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2012 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 11:34:47 S Lon : 65:38:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 943.4mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

The system the GFS develops starts out as a low pressure North of Panama on the 25th October, just 11 days out. While this is still long range, the GFS has been quite good at the 10 day mark and in as we have seen several times before.

It will be interesting to see if the model persists with this feature.


It sure will Kman.. I said a month ago we would get a storm threat as soon as I booked our flights off island for a trip to Jamaica , about end of Oct' ....LOL
Quoting Bobbyweather:

True. It's like the Western Pacific, where there is a large amount of water.

By the way, a Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone year is defined as beginning July 1, and ending June 30.

That would be,,,, all year round. The WPAC is like that due to very high SST's that practically stay high all year round.

Goodnight one and all.
Quoting AussieStorm:


20121014 1200 -11.4 -65.8 T6.0/6.0 01S ANAIS


Any idea why there is no floater on Anais?









Don't know. There was a floater up when it was an invest, but they took it down for what ever reason.
Who wants to chat?
Advisories should be out any moment.
Rafael is now up to 60mph and 997mb.
Rafael is up to 60mph.
Quoting AussieStorm:

That would be,,,, all year round. The WPAC is like that due to very high SST's that practically stay high all year round.

Thus the tropical cyclone year. That means the depression you mentioned falls into the last season (2011-12).
I thought the Southwest Indian basin is similar to the WPac, is it not?

(Good night- I'm going to sleep also)
685. SLU
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 14:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012

Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 14:17:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°56'N 64°06'W (19.9333N 64.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (267 km) to the NE (51°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 656m (2,152ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 29° at 34kts (From the NNE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
000
WTNT22 KNHC 141449
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N 65.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.2N 66.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.1N 64.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.7N 58.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Everyone, I would like to remind you that Anais is a pre-season storm. SWIO starts in November.

Rafael is up to 60mph.
60mph Rafael. Nice convection firing over the LLC.
Could the development off the coast of Panama ,be the result of the tropical wave, with a 1012mb low in the eatl.,or is this system another lesser antilles threat.
Quoting Ameister12:
60mph Rafael. Nice convection firing over the LLC.


Interesting, looks like an eye is starting to show.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Interesting, looks like an eye is starting to show.

Yeah, I noticed that too. Definitely becoming a nicely organized tropical cyclone.
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAFAEL IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. THE
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BURST OF
CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 997 MB...WHICH IS SEVERAL MILLIBARS LOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO.
THE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STORM. FOR THE FIRST TIME...STRONG WINDS WERE MEASURED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER ON A PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT...AND
RAIN CORRECTED SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 45 KT. BASED OF THIS
DATA...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. NEARLY ALL OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS RAFAEL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
SOME WEAKENING. RAFAEL WILL LIKELY BEGIN ITS TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE WITHIN 96
HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10 KT. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME SPEED
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AS IT KEEPS RAFAEL WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER GFS/GFDL SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.0N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.5N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 23.2N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 29.1N 64.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 38.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1200Z 50.5N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October

Link


No, that's what WEATHER looks like. Global warming is related to CLIMATE. They are not the same thing.
Quoting LargoFl:
i think someone said with global warming comes hotter summers, more severe storms both summer and winter and in winter, colder temps...we'll see if he was right in the years to come, remember these changes come..over many many years, maybe even lifetimes to come..we'll see...maybe


Not exactly. Global warming implies that the global average temperature is rising. How this affects different regions of the globe is dependent on many factors, including geography and ocean currents. Some areas will get warmer. Some will get colder. Some will get wetter. Some will get drier.

In any case, more energy in the atmosphere means more chances for extreme events. That doesn't mean every extreme event is related to global warming, it just means that there is a greater chance of them occurring.
Paul's still a 50mph tropical storm.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, that's what WEATHER looks like. Global warming is related to CLIMATE. They are not the same thing.


Absolutely correct.

Record setting HIGH temperature are evidence of AGW and record setting low temperatures are simply WEATHER.

Like that bumber sticker says...

The AGW gang says it is true, I believe them and thats all there is to it.

Why bother, its all settled isn't it.


Quoting LargoFl:
...its all guesswork BUT...


No it isn't. Climate science builds on the peer-reviewed research across multiple scientific disciplines. Claiming that climate science is all guess work is like claiming Bernoulli's principle is guesswork or that fluid dynamics is guesswork. And if you're claiming as such, you're going to need an amazing amount of evidence to make such a claim.
i noted that we have 23W.MARIA in the W PAC
Quoting clamshell:


Absolutely correct.

Record setting HIGH temperature are evidence of AGW and record setting low temperatures are simply WEATHER.

Like that bumber sticker says...

The AGW gang says it is true, I believe them and thats all there is to it.

Why bother, its all settled isn't it.




Record highs are get press and blogged,record lows are ignored.
Quoting clamshell:


Absolutely correct.

Record setting HIGH temperature are evidence of AGW and record setting low temperatures are simply WEATHER.

Like that bumber sticker says...

The AGW gang says it is true, I believe them and thats all there is to it.

Why bother, its all settled isn't it.




Actually, no. Record setting warm temperatures fall under the same exact same stipulation. A month of higher than average temperatures or lower than average temperatures really has nothing to do with global warming. Even a record warm year or record cold year isn't significant when it comes to climate.

That's because climate is measured on decadal scales. If warmer than average or colder than average temperatures persist consistently for a couple of decades, THAT's when it becomes significant.

That's why we know the globe is warming. Temperatures have been steadily rising for quite some time now, which was predicted as far back as the late 1800's.
It's gonna be a stormy day.

Tornado Probability


Wind Probability


Hail Probability

WOW...120 MPH MAJOR STORM!!!
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, no. Record setting warm temperatures fall under the same exact same stipulation. A month of higher than average temperatures or lower than average temperatures really has nothing to do with global warming. Even a record warm year or record cold year isn't significant when it comes to climate.

That's because climate is measured on decadal scales. If warmer than average or colder than average temperatures persist consistently for a couple of decades, THAT's when it becomes significant.

That's why we know the globe is warming. Temperatures have been steadily rising for quite some time now, which was predicted as far back as the late 1800's.


As I wrote earlier...

"...

Like that bumper sticker says...

The AGW gang says it is true, I believe them and thats all there is to it.

Why bother, its all settled isn't it."






Quoting Ameister12:
It's gonna be a stormy day.

Tornado Probability


Wind Probability


Hail Probability

Hey severe wind threat and tornado threat slowly creeping into S MI. I could get something after all.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October.
That's a lot of cold records. But so long as you're going to talk about just U.S. temperature records, it would do you well to pay attention to the larger picture. Here, allow me to help you; that skinny blue stalactite at the right end is this month's cold records. All those thick red stalagmites are this year's warm records:

temp
708. etxwx
BBC is reporting Felix Baumgartner is on his way.
Link
Eye-like feature trying to form on Rafael.
LinkFelix is over 26,000 feet 11:51 EST
"Concensus here is it'll (the human body) be alright...when he breaks the sound barrier.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Rafael is developing an eye.



I'll be back later...again. We are going to go feed the Ducks and hopefully not get at take by alligators, lol.