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Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


Center relocations are common with these weak slow moving systems.


very
YAY! Tigers beat the A's!

Quoting pottery:
Actually, in the last couple frames of the loops, Patty is sprinting off to the N/E !

I think that is just her convection as, I think, the LLC is still drifting/stationary.
04:15UTC and 98L continues to organize nicely... (finally not so boring lol)
504. JLPR2
Hmm... Looks good, but what is happening under all that convection? The wind barbs in the islands have some interesting obs.



But I'm tired and I wont waste my night on 98L. XD
Good night everyone!

ZzZzZzZzZzZzZzzz...
Quoting wxchaser97:
YAY! Tigers beat the A's!


I think that is just her convection as, I think, the LLC is still drifting/stationary.


Boo, took 5 games at least.
Wow the convection for Patty is getting sheared off to the Northeast leaving the COC exposed.

Quoting JLPR2:
Hmm... Looks good, but what is happening under all that convection? The wind barbs in the islands have some interesting obs.



But I'm tired and I wont waste my night on 98L. XD
Good night everyone!

ZzZzZzZzZzZzZzzz...

Winds in B'dos are calm for the past hour or so, with the 'direction' floating around all over the place. (check www.brohavwx.com)

So those obs are most likely just the same situation on the other islands.
48 hrs. a fujiwhara taking place between Patty and soon to be Rafael.

509. 7544
gfs has patty to vist so fl then heads south again hmmmmm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
48 hrs. a fujiwhara taking place between Patty and soon to be Rafael.


That would be great to see !
Keeping a close eye on 98L. I see it has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. Stormy weather is in the forecast for this weekend here in Antigua, especially Sunday. I wait with anticipation.
Quoting islandgirls:
Keeping a close eye on 98L. I see it has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. Stormy weather is in the forecast for this weekend here in Antigua, especially Sunday. I wait with anticipation.

I hope you get some rain !
I hear you need it there.
Quoting pottery:

That would be great to see !
Yeah, Patty is going to be trying to do the ole loop-de-loop while trying to draw Rafael closer to her. It will also be interesting to see how both of our storms do strength wise as a hurricane is not out of the question on approach to the Northern Leewards and Puerto Rico from Rafael and a strong tropical storm from Patty for the Bahamas.
Quoting pottery:

I hope you get some rain !
I hear you need it there.


Oh yes we do! Some good showers would be more than welcome.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah, Patty is going to be trying to do the ole loop-de-loop while trying to draw Rafael closer to her. It will also be interesting to see how both of our storms do strength wise as a hurricane is not out of the question on approach to the Northern Leewards and Puerto Rico from Rafael and a strong tropical storm from Patty for the Bahamas.
After that two are any potential candidates for "Sandy"?
Well folks, I'm off to bed. I'll be back to see what's happening in a few hours.
Quoting allancalderini:
After that two are any potential candidates for "Sandy"?
Actually yes and this one is out in the open Atlantic.



And perhaps something trying to get going in the Western Caribbean? Although it is long range, and we all know how that works out.


Hurricane Hunters set to take off later today to investigate Patty and 98L.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 111451
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT THU 11 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--
A. 12/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0116A CYCLONE
C. 12/1200Z
D. 24.8N 74.0W
E. 12/1530Z TO 12/1830
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
C. 12/1700Z C. 13/0500Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W D. 17.0N 64.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z E. 13/1530Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STILL A THREAT.
Quoting plutorising:
did y'all see this article yet? a new weather pattern affecting the north pole region.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= researchers-find-link-between-arctic-meltdown-summ er-floods-fires

"Another surprise, Overland said, is the link his study found between the blast of summer air flowing into the Arctic each June and persistent high-pressure weather systems that have produced unusual summer warmth in Greenland for the last six years."


Interesting article. Thanks. Fixed your link so it's easier for others to find.
520. 7544
ok shes back to sw now dmax on the way
With Patty taken...we just have 5 names left...soon 4
Tropical Disturbance near Diego Garcia (91s)

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 72.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
DATA FROM THE BARBADOS WEATHER SERVICE RADAR...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...AND SATELLITES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NOW LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT LUCIA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EVEN
THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
If this were August or September, 98L would be a Gulf storm. Then again, with the recurve gods on our side, maybe not...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
With Patty taken...we just have 5 names left...soon 4
We will probably reach Sandy by the last week of October and maybe Tony in November.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN A DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
Quoting KoritheMan:
If this were August or September, 98L would be a Gulf storm. Then again, with the recurve gods on our side, maybe not...
Semtember this month had me disappoint only two name storms but August was like a produce machine it produce 8.btw Does it it is a record this year to have 16 name storms without neither failing to stay at td status? I remember 2008 end with 15 until td 16 broke the streak and couldn`t strength.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Disturbance near Diego Garcia (91s)

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 72.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.



it looks very organized...this may become the first storm of their season...Anais
Quoting allancalderini:
Semtember this month had me disappoint only two name storms but August was like a produce machine it produce 8.btw Does it it is a record this year to have 16 name storms without neither failing to stay at td status? I remember 2008 end with 15 until td 16 broke the streak and couldn`t strength.


I dunno. Good question. I did read a dissertation once, possibly from Masters, that said that tropical depressions have become less frequent since the 1980s. I can think of a couple of reasons for that, but I won't expound unless someone asks me to.
531. 7544
Quoting Civicane49:


lookin good now for d max
ALERT ATCF MIL 98X XXX 121012000000
2012101200
13.0 301.1
15.6 298.0
100
12.8 301.4
120200
1210120200
1
WTNT21 KNGU 120200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 58.9W TO 15.6N 62.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 112345Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 58.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS. AT 120000Z, SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 130200Z.//
9812100712 80N 308W 15
9812100718 80N 325W 15
9812100800 80N 342W 20
9812100806 81N 359W 20
9812100812 83N 375W 25
9812100818 84N 391W 25
9812100900 83N 412W 25
9812100906 83N 437W 25
9812100912 84N 459W 25
9812100918 90N 506W 25
9812101000 93N 519W 30
9812101006 96N 532W 30
9812101012 100N 544W 30
9812101018 104N 553W 30
9812101100 108N 561W 30
9812101106 112N 569W 30
9812101112 117N 576W 30
9812101118 120N 581W 30
9812101200 124N 586W 30

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



it looks very organized...this may become the first storm of their season...Anais


waiting to see what Reunion does in a about half hour to see if they begin any warnings.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I dunno. Good question. I did read a dissertation once, possibly from Masters, that said that tropical depressions have become less frequent since the 1980s. I can think of a couple of reasons for that, but I won't expound unless someone asks me to.


As I said before, both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins have all tropical depressions become named storms this year so far. I wonder if all tropical depressions become named storms by the end of the season.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #59
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.9N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.3N 129.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.7N 129.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.3N 129.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We will probably see 1-3 named storms this season, giving us a final total of 17-19 named storms.

According to my forecast, which has arguably panned out so far; there may be more ... to include alpha(highest in the sky), and beta(note reverse direction, possible Gulf storm?).







Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20122013
10:30 AM RET October 12 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 7.5S 71.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 8.2S 66.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 9.2S 63.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 9.9S 60.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
======================

System located 70 NM west of Diego Garcia has tracked west southward at about 11 knots the past 6 hours. Last animated satellite imagery depicts a blow up of convection persisting close to the center and a good upper level divergence south of the system.

Environmental conditions are good with good trade inflow and improving inflow equatorward. Upper level wind shear is weak, system being located beneath the western part of an upper level ridge and the divergence is favorable southward. Sea surface temperature is currently favorable near 27C,

Within the next 3 days, system is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward over the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressure. Environmental conditions should remain favorable. System is expected to intensify during this period.

On an after 72 hours, system should keep on tracking west southwestward. Ocean heat content should become unfavorable for further deepening of the system.
GOES-14 is slowly moving east to assume the position of GOES-13.




Hopefully GOES-13 will come back online soon. Having GOES-14 take over for GOES-13 means we no longer have a backup geostationary satellite. So if either GOES-14 or GOES-15 fails, we would be in a satellite blackout for at least another 3 years. I honestly can't imagine weather forecasting without geostationary satellite imagery.
Quoting TomTaylor:
GOES-14 is slowly moving east to assume the position of GOES-13.




Hopefully GOES-13 will come back online soon. Having GOES-14 take over for GOES-13 means we no longer have a backup geostationary satellite. So if either GOES-14 or GOES-15 fails, we would be in a satellite blackout for at least another 3 years. I honestly can't imagine weather forecasting without geostationary satellite imagery.


How old is GOES-14?


copyright Meteo France Reunion
Quoting KoritheMan:


How old is GOES-14?
It was launched in June of 2009 according to Wikipedia. So a little over 3 years old.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Blog update. Very late blog update, but nonetheless...
Nice blog. Very late indeed. I'll be up for a while though. Studying for a chem quiz.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...PATTY DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 72.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PATTY CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER
SSMIS PASS AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST
DEEP CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE
AGENCIES...AND A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS IS THE BASIS FOR
LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.

PATTY IS NOT LIKELY TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH
LONGER. AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE STORM DUE ITS PROXIMITY TO A FRONT.
IN ADDITION...A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN EVEN STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PATTY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE FACTORS
SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING...AND PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A
BIT LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY IS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST...OR 200/03...DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE BEING PUSHED
SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS THAT DISSIPATE THE STORM RELATIVELY SOON. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT FASTER TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 25.1N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 24.9N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 24.3N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 23.9N 74.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting AussieStorm:
Afternoon all. Dr Masters, you said 97L won't develop yet it's now TS Patty. mmmmmmmmmmmmm
Seriously?

I can't stand it when people criticize others for getting a forecast wrong. It's rude and completely unnecessary. Criticizing blown forecasts is never cool, especially on the doc's own blog.

Show some respect, forecasting ain't easy.
Good Morning folks!..great weather here by me!!..........
Barbados
Wind


Wind Speed

32 km/h
()
 
 


Max Wind Speed

57 km/h

 
 


Max Gust Speed

76 km/h

 
 


Visibility

9.6 kilometers

 
 


Events

Rain

98 keeps getting stronger large magnitude tw with multiple vortexs
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AFFECTING PARTS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND
PROBABLY PASSING NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWEST...AS EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ALSO LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TUTT REMAINS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION AND WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE DISTURBANCE JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT
IS BECOMING A BIT MORE LIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WOULD
GIVE THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THE WORST
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO
EASTWARD THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL
NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE SHOWERS PASS NEAR TIST...TISX AND TJSJ THIS MORNING. THEN...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN 12/16Z AND 12/21Z. THIS COULD RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TODAY...AT AROUND
15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE...
AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 70 70 70 50
STT 89 80 89 79 / 70 70 70 50
558. VR46L
Quoting GTcooliebai:
48 hrs. a fujiwhara taking place between Patty and soon to be Rafael.



I somehow doubt it...

Patty forecast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 25.1N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 24.9N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 24.3N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 23.9N 74.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED



Patty; "I'm not dead yet"
Considering how consistently WRONG the NHC has been about Patty's development and its track, I doubt that the NHC's intensity predictions merit respect when intensity is MUCH harder to predict than the track.
64 in for me in WPB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
443 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-130000 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
443 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...MARINE GUST IMPACT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF UP TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS WILL BE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS AND GREATER THAN 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...MARINE GUST IMPACT...
GUSTY WINDS OFFSHORE WITH ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL AT TIMES APPROACH 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

FLEMING




Current conditons in Fort Myers, FL

Temp 70° (21°C)
Humidity 87%
Wind Speed NE 6 mph
Barometer 30.10 in (1019.3 mb)
Dewpoint 66° (19°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Forcast is for sunny skies with high of 88° and low of 68°
Chamber of Commerce weather at least through Tuesday of next week!
564. SLU
Good morning

The center we've been tracking has just passed St. Lucia and is near 14.1n 61.1w and the winds have veered to the SW on that island.

But you can see another swirl starting to develop further south east near 13.4n 60.5w near the deep convection about midway between Barbados and St. Vincent.

Barbados also reported 10-min sustained winds of 36mph over night which equates to about 40mph 1-min winds.

565. VR46L
Quoting TomTaylor:
Seriously?

I can't stand it when people criticize others for getting a forecast wrong. It's rude and completely unnecessary. Criticizing blown forecasts is never cool, especially on the doc's own blog.

Show some respect, forecasting ain't easy.


No harm , but the second that forecast of the Docs came out people were questioning it, to most people who were looking at the images at the time Patty was at least a depression at the time ...
Quoting aspectre:
Considering how consistently WRONG the NHC has been about Patty's development and its track, I doubt that the NHC's intensity predictions merit respect when intensity is MUCH harder to predict than the track.


so...what do you think about their graph...?


I get what you said..remember this TWO issued on Thursday at 8 AM?

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
BEFORE THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

how come the "low" has not merged yet? this is a.k.a.FAIL!
patty making a run for the nw carib might get killed trying to do it.
568. VR46L
Quoting islander101010:
patty making a run for the nw carib might get killed trying to do it.


Yep there is alot of shear between her and there..
Quoting TomTaylor:
Seriously?

I can't stand it when people criticize others for getting a forecast wrong. It's rude and completely unnecessary. Criticizing blown forecasts is never cool, especially on the doc's own blog.

Show some respect, forecasting ain't easy.

Sorry but Dr Masters said this when both 97L and 98L were at 50%. 2hrs later we had TD16 which then became TS Patty. That's a bad forecast to me. What did the NHC see that Dr Masters didn't??

Btw, i don't give to hoots if it's cool or not to criticize.
97E remains at 50%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
98L up to 80%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN RAIN BANDS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STILL LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
PATTY o_0 ?
Wow I've missed a lot.
573. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN RAIN BANDS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STILL LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting VR46L:


I somehow doubt it...

Patty forecast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 25.1N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 24.9N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 24.3N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 23.9N 74.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED




Fuji dance has been called off. No way that happens. What's Koby thinkin' man!!
Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR 12/1800Z AT 17.0N 61.0W.
BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 13/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

There won't be any fujiwhara effect. Patty should be gone by then.
mosquitos are swarming hopefully just the salt water kind e cen florida
SUNNY morning there in some islands
Quoting TomTaylor:
Seriously?

I can't stand it when people criticize others for getting a forecast wrong. It's rude and completely unnecessary. Criticizing blown forecasts is never cool, especially on the doc's own blog.

Show some respect, forecasting ain't easy.

Relax. You're too sensitive, Tom.
581. Gorty
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks!..great weather here by me!!..........


LOL nice!

For me, today and tomorrow highs in the low 50s. This morning is in the mid 30s, tomorrow morning it will be in the mid 20s.
Well I was going to write a blog but I am running out of time and wouldn't be able to complete one. Here are my severe weather and tropical weather graphics that would've been included.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

Relax. You're too sensitive, Tom.

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.
Be funny if Patty was sitting about 20 miles off shore of Florida just taunting them.Lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.

Haha, why did it go off?
Also I didn't like that comment either.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.

Oh did it. I am very sorry. Geez, don't you think Dr Masters has been criticized before for a busted forecast. I think every forecaster has made a busted forecast and they got criticized for it. Probably water off the Doc's back.

In which decade was it not allowed to criticize people??

Oh and you can criticize me, I don't care one bit.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.


I got up at 4am.
that wasnt last night to me!
Quoting wxchaser97:

Haha, why did it go off?
Also I didn't like that comment either.

Dust gets inside the vents and when we turn the heat on it burns it and causes it to smoke/smell bad. It won't happen again until next year now.
589. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?


Not a chance of Fujiwhara IMO , Patty by this time tomorrow will be sheared to pieces If you click on this link and tick the hdw boxs you can see the shear she has to come through ...I am not saying she could not regenerate at some stage but she will be a low in all probability in 36 48 hrs time

Link



Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?


Yes to recon, scheduled for this afternoon.
No to Fuji effect IMO
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dust gets inside the vents and when we turn the heat on it burns it and causes it to smoke/smell bad. It won't happen again until next year now.

You do know a fire could start from that and it is probably a good idea to get them cleaned.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.

You are way too sensitive then, Cody. Lighten up.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh did it. I am very sorry. Geez, don't you think Dr Masters has been criticized before for a busted forecast. I think every forecaster has made a busted forecast and they got criticized for it. Probably water off the Doc's back.

In which decade was it not allowed to criticize people??

Oh and you can criticize me, I don't care one bit.

In what decade was it right to criticize someone, with a much higher education background than yourself, who has put a lot of time and effort into making this site and blog section, just so we can comment on it and learn things?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In what decade was it right to criticize someone, with a much higher education background than yourself, who has put a lot of time and effort into making this site and blog section, just so we can comment on it and learn things?

And the relentless bashing of Joe Bastardi and others don't apply. Common, Bro. Get real.
Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-1222 00-
/O.UPG.KOKX.FZ.A.0007.121013T0500Z-121013T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0005.121013T0500Z-121013T1300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.---first freeze for us

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD KILL CROPS AND
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.


I love cold weather!!!
Quoting TomballTXPride:

And the relentless bashing of Joe Bastardi and others don't apply. Common, Bro. Get real.

There's a difference between disagreeing and just downright criticizing.

Anyways, I'm off to school. Two tests and three speeches to give.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's a difference between disagreeing and just downright criticizing.

Anyways, I'm off to school. Two tests and three speeches to give.

Knock 'em dead. Good luck.
Im passing out baby bottles and bibs..its wayyyy too early to be whining this beautiful NC morning.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's a difference between disagreeing and just downright criticizing.

Anyways, I'm off to school. Two tests and three speeches to give.

Good luck and don't fail those tests & speeches.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?

Since no one has said this yet, ;), recon goes out today but a Fujiwhara effect probably won't happen.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In what decade was it right to criticize someone, with a much higher education background than yourself, who has put a lot of time and effort into making this site and blog section, just so we can comment on it and learn things?


even if i dont like Aussie's comment, i dont like this one either.
We ARE allowed to criticize those in a higher position than us. At any time.
This isnt a "status" situation, in which you musnt go against anyone in a higher position than you
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In what decade was it right to criticize someone, with a much higher education background than yourself, who has put a lot of time and effort into making this site and blog section, just so we can comment on it and learn things?

Yeah, so you've never criticized the NHC for a dud forecast? People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

The meaning of Forecast is Predict or estimate (a future event or trend). So what if Dr Masters got it wrong. Your just making a big deal about it cause I criticized him over it. His forecast said, 97L was not a threat to develop, 2hrs later it was a TD.


I forecast I will wake up at 11am tomorrow morning, if I'm wrong then heck, I got it wrong.

Build a bridge and get over it. I'm over it. You should follow, we do have Patty and 98L to watch not to argue if it's cool or not if someone got a forecast wrong. Geez Aye Caramba
I'm going to school as well, luckily I don't have any tests or important things today. The next few days will be active severe weather wise and TD17 should form late tonight or tomorrow.
The "Righteous Indignation" crowd lives on.

SLU, what would you say is happening with the white core jus south of Barbados.....on the funktop loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ft-animate d.gif
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, so you've never criticized the NHC for a dud forecast? People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

The meaning of Forecast is Predict or estimate (a future event or trend). So what if Dr Masters got it wrong. Your just making a big deal about it cause I criticized him over it. His forecast said, 97L was not a threat to develop, 2hrs later it was a TD.


I forecast I will wake up at 11am tomorrow morning, if I'm wrong then heck, I got it wrong.

Build a bridge and get over it. I'm over it. You should follow, we do have Patty and 98L to watch not to argue if it's cool or not if someone got a forecast wrong. Geez Aye Caramba

Bingo.
Good Morning!

I knew the Bahama Blob/16/Patty wasn't getting the attention it deserved. If it survives long enough to duck south of the shear, it could cause some damage.

"news of its demise is over rated".

Wow, we finally had a weather change here in north Florida. I can breathe for the first time in over a month!
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Bingo.

How many people in the NHC has a PhD??? Probably all of them yet they get criticized all the time on this blog. Stones and glass houses don't mix.









Good Morning all.

Still threatening to rain here in Trinidad.
Calm and humid.

Hi Aussie. I see you are still sending down bouncers, and they are all trying to hook.
610. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

How many people in the NHC has a PhD??? Probably all of them yet they get criticized all the time on this blog. Stones and glass houses don't mix.


Thing people forget is we are all human and prone to error....noone is perfect but we should also be entitled to call out an error and not sweep it under the carpet when it was obvious ... If the doc had corrected his blog as soon as the questions were being asked or when TD 16 was declared it would not be an issue now..
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.

Still threatening to rain here in Trinidad.
Calm and humid.

Hi Aussie. I see you are still sending down bouncers, and they are all trying to hook.

Hey Pot, yeah, also bowling yorkers and sandshoe crushers.


COC of Patty looks to be moving NE and chasing the convection.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Pot, yeah, also bowling yorkers and sandshoe crushers.


COC of Patty looks to be moving NE and back under the convection.


LOL to that !

I thought that Patty was shifting her position last night too, to the NE.
Time will tell.

Funny how both her and 98 have been pretty static for a couple of days..
Hoping that we don't get rains that are too heavy here. Looks touch-and-go right now.
613. 7544
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Pot, yeah, also bowling yorkers and sandshoe crushers.


COC of Patty looks to be moving NE and back under the convection.



yep she did that last night caught a some conv .then went back to the sw still keep one eye on her today
SPC today




tomorrow


Sunday
615. Relix
98L's LLC probably relocated to the SE under the MLC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
718 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-122030-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0007.121013T0600Z-121013T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0012.121013T0600Z-121013T1300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MO NROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
718 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY, TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF
NOT PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&
NORTHEAST UNDER A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...........
I don't see a NW movement with 98L, I see an almost due west movement for now.
Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Depression or storm likely to form near/over Lesser Antilles next day or so, Air Force flying it this afternoon
Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't see a NW movement with 98L, I see an almost due west movement for now.
Agree, W to WNW...not NW at all...
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-131000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-M ILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO
WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE MAIN
HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

$$


------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't see a NW movement with 98L, I see an almost due west movement for now.



Weakness looks like it is closing.Link
The mark of Zorro
Good Morning
Have a question;
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS


It says this but in the Tropical discussion it says this
" AS OF 0600 UTC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 60.4W OR ABOUT 32 NM SE OF
ST LUCIA.


So is it Nw of St. Lucia or SE?

Which is right? and how do you get in touch with some one at NHC to get them to correct which ever is wrong? Alot of us in on the islands depend on the NHC for information since our Government does not put warnings out until it is to late to prepare
628. SLU
Tropical storm force winds of 39mph just clocked in Barbados
Woke up at 4:00am with heavy rains and fierce winds here in Barbados. Right now we are experiencing light rain but the winds are coming from the southeast at 40-52km. The blob that is coming up to us going to be very nasty. Should be Rafael NHC.
Quoting VR46L:


Thing people forget is we are all human and prone to error....noone is perfect but we should also be entitled to call out an error and not sweep it under the carpet when it was obvious ... If the doc had corrected his blog as soon as the questions were being asked or when TD 16 was declared it would not be an issue now..
I think the doc has been doing this long enough now to let the chips fall where they may.... he knows life as we know it will not end if he makes a mistake on the blog; this is the guy who used to be with the HHers at one point, for pete's sake... He called it; he was wrong. He's not so caught up in public opinion that he has to "nickel and dime" his blog post.

Additionally, and a lot of us here would do well to pay attention to this, the doc uses words like "likely to" and "is expected to". He himself acknowledges that a different outcome is possible. He just doesn't expect that to be what happens. By doing this, the doc makes it clear what we sometimes forget - that wx forecasting is an imprecise science. Even the best of us expect to be wrong sometimes.
631. 7544
looks like 98l will be a ts when the plane is done latter
Good morning to all, BTW.... lol

It's sunny and breezy here in Nassau Bahamas. I'm looking forward to an enjoyable holiday, and since it seems we won't be getting much rain after all, I think I'll go out and enjoy some of it.
12z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2012101212, , BEST, 0, 137N, 618W, 35, 1006, LO
63km now in Barbados.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2012101212, , BEST, 0, 137N, 618W, 35, 1006, LO
moving WNW, and 40mph,,a tropical storm strength invest,,cool...
what is this bashing friday

chill out relax track the storms
Cool...Looks like an angry face !

Torrential rain warning for east of Scotland



Heavy rain has swept over parts of Scotland, with localised flooding causing disruption to travel.

Roads in Fife and Tayside have been affected and some drivers had to be rescued from their vehicles.

Three people have been trapped in properties in Dura Den in Fife after heavy rain caused a river to burst its banks.

And residents in the Aberdeenshire town of Stonehaven have been warned the River Carron is in danger of flooding.


Sandbags have been handed out to residents in Stonehaven
Sandbags have been handed out to residents and barriers have been put in place on roads around the town centre.

Stonehaven was seriously affected by flooding when the Carron burst its banks three years ago.

The Met Office has issued an Amber (Be Prepared) warning in Central, Tayside and Fife, Grampian, Highlands and the Western Isles.

There is the potential for almost a month's average rainfall over a 24 to 48-hour period, with about 8cm (3in) possible in some areas.

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Sepa) had 24 flood warnings in place, with most in Angus, Tayside and the Borders.

Richard Brown, head of hydrology at Sepa, said: "Flooding is now affecting parts of the Borders, Fife, Tayside and Angus.

"At present 11 generalised flood alerts are in force ranging from the Borders across the Central Belt and up the east side of the country to Aberdeenshire, Moray, Easter Ross and the Great Glen.

"There are also 24 more specific flood warnings in force covering several rivers in the Scottish Borders, Tayside, Angus and Sutherland."
In Fife, police said the East Neuk of Fife, and the Cupar and East Wemyss areas were particularly badly affected.

In one incident, late on Thursday night, fire crews rescued a woman and her dog from her car after it got stuck in 3ft of floodwater near Colinsburgh on the east coast.

Fife Fire and Rescue Service said the people trapped on Friday in Dura Den, including one elderly woman, were safe.

They will monitor the high water levels before deciding whether or not they need to be rescued.

A number of roads have been closed across the country, including the A92 northbound between Dundee and Arbroath and the A937 Laurencekirk to Montrose road at Marykirk.

Tayside Police said they had received at least three reports of cars getting into difficulty as a result of drivers attempting to plough through deep water, causing engines to fail.




A broken down lorry on the M90 between junctions 7 and 6 had also resulted in a lane closure on the northbound dual carriageway.

The force also warned of localised flooding in many parts of Angus, in particular the areas around Brechin, Wellbank, Emmock, Kellas, Gagie and Tealing.

Meanwhile, flooding on the line near Craigo, in Angus, has caused delays to rail services.

Services from Aberdeen to Dundee are able to run, but at reduced speeds, while alternative road transport has been put in place from Dundee to Aberdeen.

A Yellow rain alert is also in place for Friday for Orkney and Shetland and the eastern Highlands.

Transport Minister Keith Brown said: "Just weeks after the first major storm of the autumn, the transport network is braced for another major challenge.

"Transport Scotland's Multi Agency Response Team (MART) remains on standby and will be activated if required. Our operating companies are closely monitoring the situation and are ready to deal with any weather-related issues that arise."
Quoting superpete:
Cool...Looks like an angry face !



If the analysis is correct the steering is NW.

Shuttle Endeavour Crossing
The space shuttle Endeavour is seen atop the Over Land Transporter (OLT) after exiting the Los Angeles International Airport on its way to its new home at the California Science Center in Los Angeles, Friday, Oct. 12, 2012
T.C.F.A.
98L/INV/XX/XX
After 98L/Rafael, we need to watch the Caribbean, the ECMWF has been showing a storm developing there for the last few runs.


Interestingly enough, if we get Rafael in the next 24-48 hours, we will be over a week ahead of 2010 and 2011 with the 'R' name storm. IMO, one more storm after Rafael in October, then the possibility of an Ida like system in November. Can't rule out a hurricane coming from the Caribbean either in October or November, conditions will be favorable.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
what is this bashing friday
Nah, just the standard jealousy displayed by by some of all that Dr. Masters has achieved. It always makes me laugh when someone with his CV is ridiculed by those who haven't a fraction of his education or experience--and on a forum he created that's attached to a blog he writes that's published on a website he started. I guess some people have overdeveloped senses of entitlement but no offsetting senses of irony... ;-)

Also, some seem to misunderstand the meaning of the term "no threat". Dr. Masters didn't say yesterday that 97L wouldn't develop; he said it would be no threat. Here's everything Dr. Masters wrote about 97L yesterday morning:

A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.

And here's what the NHC had to say about things just this morning:

PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER

I'd like someone who thinks Dr. Masters "blew" his forecast yesterday to please point out where they think he misspoke. (Yes, on Tuesday morning he stated that 97L was "little threat to develop", but at the time even the NHC gave the invest just a 10% chance. And as others have noted, "little" isn't the same as "no".)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 20.1N 129.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.8N 129.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 21.2N 130.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 21.9N 130.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 01-20122013
16:30 PM RET October 12 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 7.9S 71.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 09.2S 68.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 10.7S 64.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 11.9S 61.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Within the last 6 hours, the convection has slightly organized in a curved band. System is tracking west southwestward to southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure.

Environmental condition are favorable, with good low level inflow, upper level wind shear is weak, system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Current heat ocean content is favorable (sea surface temperature is around 27C).

Within the next 3 days, system is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward over the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressure. Upper level environmental conditions should improve: System is expected to move beneath the ridge axis, an outflow channel is expected to build south of the system during this period. System is also expected to intensify until after 72 hours.

On and after 72 hours, system should arrive over cooler sea surface temperatures and begin to weaken. Upper level wind shear is expected to strengthen at the end of the forecast period.

Last available numerical weather prediction models suggest a slowest and more south track than the previous runs. RSMC official track is close to the last available ECMWF run.
I'm going out for a while. If Patty is going to affect our weather today, it looks like later this evening or tonight. I think I'll run out and get some sun, then dive into the cool later this p.m. Happy watching, all.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
So this sets 98L up to bring rain / storm conditions to most of the Lesser Antilles.... I didn't expect it to get into the CAR that far south, I gotta tell you. Anybody else thinking we may not see this northerly shift as currently forecast?
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think the doc has been doing this long enough now to let the chips fall where they may.... he knows life as we know it will not end if he makes a mistake on the blog; this is the guy who used to be with the HHers at one point, for pete's sake... He called it; he was wrong. He's not so caught up in public opinion that he has to "nickel and dime" his blog post.

Additionally, and a lot of us here would do well to pay attention to this, the doc uses words like "likely to" and "is expected to". He himself acknowledges that a different outcome is possible. He just doesn't expect that to be what happens. By doing this, the doc makes it clear what we sometimes forget - that wx forecasting is an imprecise science. Even the best of us expect to be wrong sometimes.


I unfortunately had little time to prepare my blog yesterday, due to the pressures of an early travel commitment (had to be on the road by 8 am.) My treatment of pre-Patty was quite rushed, and definitely one of my poorer efforts. Had the storm been more of a threat to populated areas, I would have made a stronger effort.

Jeff Masters
It sure looks like Patty is getting sheared apart pretty good this morning. Maybe a little swirl may make it to the western Caribbean, but doesn't look like much.

Quoting JeffMasters:


I unfortunately had little time to prepare my blog yesterday, due to the pressures of an early travel commitment (had to be on the road by 8 am.) My treatment of pre-Patty was quite rushed, and definitely one of my poorer efforts. Had the storm been more of a threat to populated areas, I would have made a stronger effort.

Jeff Masters


There we have it guys, now can we all just get along?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


There we have it guys, now can we all just get along?

Sure, after you quit letting me down in Fantasy, Roddy.
I'm going to take some pics today and post them under labels like "Patty threatens the Bahamas"... lol

Bye ya'll....
98L is a whole mess of convection, that is being sheared all over the place. There are a number of vortices milling around, with really no distinct coc. there seems to be a a consolidation of these vortices within what appears to be a large mid level circulation. although there is no closed low, i suspect one is trying to form under the heavy convection east of the islands. it would not be surprising if recon will fine a developing system when it goes in this afternoon. whatever happens some of the islands will experience tropical storm conditions the next few days.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nah, just the standard jealousy displayed by by some of all that Dr. Masters has achieved. It always makes me laugh when someone with his CV is ridiculed by those who haven't a fraction of his education or experience--and on a forum he created that's attached to a blog he writes that's published on a website he started. I guess some people have overdeveloped senses of entitlement but no offsetting senses of irony... ;-)

Also, some seem to misunderstand the meaning of the term "no threat". Dr. Masters didn't say yesterday that 97L wouldn't develop; he said it would be no threat. Here's everything Dr. Masters wrote about 97L yesterday morning:

A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.

And here's what the NHC had to say about things just this morning:

PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER

I'd like someone who thinks Dr. Masters "blew" his forecast yesterday to please point out where they think he misspoke. (Yes, on Tuesday morning he stated that 97L was "little threat to develop", but at the time even the NHC gave the invest just a 10% chance. And as others have noted, "little" isn't the same as "no".)


Pot, meet Kettle..may I remind you of Joe Bastardi?
Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't see a NW movement with 98L, I see an almost due west movement for now.

I totaly agree with you plus 12Z plots show W-WNW movement now plus looking at steering maps it shows a more due W track through out most of the caribbean and the weakness is closing

Quoting CybrTeddy:
After 98L/Rafael, we need to watch the Caribbean, the ECMWF has been showing a storm developing there for the last few runs.


Interestingly enough, if we get Rafael in the next 24-48 hours, we will be over a week ahead of 2010 and 2011 with the 'R' name storm. IMO, one more storm after Rafael in October, then the possibility of an Ida like system in November. Can't rule out a hurricane coming from the Caribbean either in October or November, conditions will be favorable.


wow CybrTeddy thats on top of me OMG and if that becomes a TS it would be Sandy and if that happens it would be a head of 2011 when Sean was in early-mid Nov
658. Relix
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I totaly agree with you plus 12Z plots show W-WNW movement now plus looking at steering maps it shows a more due W track through out most of the caribbean and the weakness is closing



wow CybrTeddy thats on top of me OMG and if that becomes a TS it would be Sandy and if that happens it would be a head of 2011 when Sean was in early-mid Nov

No wunderkid, its not coming to the Cayman Islands :p
Lol Wunderkid... come on ;-) Thats unlikely.
Good morning

98L is being shorn like a sheep by the TUTT that runs from a ULL to the Ns all the way to a ULL in the central Caribbean. This makes it a prime candidate for another center reformation near 11 N and 58 W underneath the deep convection.



Let's see how the day plays out.

WV Loop of TUTT
Quoting ncstorm:


Pot, meet Kettle..may I remind you of Joe Bastardi?

You can leave me out of this....

:):))
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

98L is being shorn like a sheep by the TUTT that runs from a ULL to the Ns all the way to a ULL in the central Caribbean. This makes it a prime candidate for another center reformation near 11 N and 58 W underneath the deep convection.



Let's see how the day plays out.

WV Loop of TUTT


Good morning. You then think that the position of Best Track at 13.7N-61.8W is not going to be the prime center?
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

98L is being shorn like a sheep by the TUTT that runs from a ULL to the Ns all the way to a ULL in the central Caribbean. This makes it a prime candidate for another center reformation near 11 N and 58 W underneath the deep convection.



Let's see how the day plays out.

WV Loop of TUTT

Hmmmm...

do I need to know this ? LOL
Looks plausible though. Center is shown a long way N and W of where
it appears to be.
The HH's will be busy trying to pin this one down today.

South winds in B'dos, 1.42" of rain this morning.
be careful on the east coast beaches today folks.......COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
407 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO RIP CURRENTS AND
POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ATLANTIC COAST...

FLZ168-172-173-131000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.CF.S.0004.121012T0807Z-121015T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMFL.RP.S.0028.121012T0807Z-121015T0000Z/
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
407 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS WEEKEND...

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE BAY
SIDE AND OCEAN SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

* TIMING...RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES NOW
AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
OCCUR AT AROUND SUNRISE AND SUNSET.

* IMPACTS...RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES,
SOME STRONG. THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BARRIER
ISLANDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH POSSIBLE OVERWASH ONTO THE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE ROADS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS JETTIES AND
PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY
ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN
CALM AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM
THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A
STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

&&

$$

GREGORIA
Canadian Model shows Patty regenerating in the Western Caribbean.



ECMWF shows development around the 19th.



And GFS shows development around the 27th.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Canadian Model shows Patty regenerating in the Western Caribbean.



ECMWF shows development around the 19th.



And GFS shows development around the 27th.



HMMMM>>

post 666, eh ??
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Canadian Model shows Patty regenerating in the Western Caribbean.



ECMWF shows development around the 19th.



And GFS shows development around the 27th.

yes Gro was thinking that yesterday as well,we need to watch patty this coming week, could redevelop into yet another tropical something, wonder if she gets a new name?
Wonderful weather here this week for sure..........

TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY REMAINS EXPOSED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SOME
BANDING FEATURES FORMING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.
ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN BEFORE...A
BLEND OF THOSE VALUES STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS A MARGINAL
TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN
THE AREA LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED DATA. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE WITH PATTY...
AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD ONLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
WINDS. PATTY WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
36H DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.

THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY
DUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION. LITTLE NET MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A
SHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE NHC TRACK IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT
IN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN 36H.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 25.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 25.7N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 25.6N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 24.5N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 23.5N 75.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nah, just the standard jealousy displayed by by some of all that Dr. Masters has achieved. It always makes me laugh when someone with his CV is ridiculed by those who haven't a fraction of his education or experience--and on a forum he created that's attached to a blog he writes that's published on a website he started. I guess some people have overdeveloped senses of entitlement but no offsetting senses of irony... ;-)

Also, some seem to misunderstand the meaning of the term "no threat". Dr. Masters didn't say yesterday that 97L wouldn't develop; he said it would be no threat. Here's everything Dr. Masters wrote about 97L yesterday morning:

A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.

And here's what the NHC had to say about things just this morning:

PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER

I'd like someone who thinks Dr. Masters "blew" his forecast yesterday to please point out where they think he misspoke. (Yes, on Tuesday morning he stated that 97L was "little threat to develop", but at the time even the NHC gave the invest just a 10% chance. And as others have noted, "little" isn't the same as "no".)


Neo, I have nothing to say, Dr Masters admitted him self his pre-Patty forecast was " definitely one of my poorer efforts". I have no more to add.

Dr Masters, we all know forecasters make mistakes, weather forecasting is not an exact science, if it was then you wouldn't of taken the time to make this blog in the first place. A blog where we all learn, share information, talk about our local weather and disagree on forecasts that the NHC makes and yes even forecasts you make. It just goes to show Mother Nature will do what she wants to do and sometimes even though we think we know what she will do next, she might just do something else.

Good Night all.
Stay well, Stay safe, and enjoy the weather.
Quoting Relix:

No wunderkid, its not coming to the Cayman Islands :p

thats just the model and its a bit ways out anything can happen it its way like at 102-95hrs out then that would make sense to go nuts lol
I know that is what you are talking about
what I said "wow CybrTeddy thats on top of me OMG and if that becomes a TS it would be Sandy and if that happens it would be a head of 2011 when Sean was in early-mid Nov." also I have some new and sorry to break your heart but you my friend can't tell a hoot if that is coming here or not and there is a very simple explination for that if you can not figure that out then ask but you should know it

Quoting CaribBoy:
Lol Wunderkid... come on ;-) Thats unlikely.


on what??? (scratch head)
btw it looks like if 98L comes to you you will get rain and if 98L heads more W-WNW bound you will still get the rain yeppy for you you lucky man

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

98L is being shorn like a sheep by the TUTT that runs from a ULL to the Ns all the way to a ULL in the central Caribbean. This makes it a prime candidate for another center reformation near 11 N and 58 W underneath the deep convection.



Let's see how the day plays out.

WV Loop of TUTT


true that could be but also the UL trough is bottom half is moving slowly W-WNW and top half is going E-ENE slowly so its kinda giving way for 98L and also the more time 98L relocates S and E near to the convection that will cause the weakness to fully close and would cause a more dead due W track into the Caribbean which would be good for the E carib Islands and bad for the rest of the caribbean and bad for CaribBoy
GFS at 72 hours............
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Coordinates: 13.7N 61.8W 12Z
Coordinates: 13.6N 60.4W 06Z

98L has been moving more WNW than NW in the past two runs. However, it should start resuming a more NW movement soon



Quoting GTcooliebai:
Canadian Model shows Patty regenerating in the Western Caribbean.



ECMWF shows development around the 19th.



And GFS shows development around the 27th.



#1 really bad news for me
#2 bad newas for me
#3 not soo bad new for me
Quoting Grothar:
Coordinates: 13.7N 61.8W 12Z
Coordinates: 13.6N 60.4W 06Z

98L has been moving more WNW than NW in the past two runs. However, it should start resuming a more NW movement soon




you hope
but by looking at steering its says W-WNW and weakness closing off W-WNW will be its movement now
Quoting ncstorm:


Pot, meet Kettle..may I remind you of Joe Bastardi?
One major glaring difference that so many of you seem to miss is that we don't go to Bastardi's site and use his own software to bash him. Are you not able to see that difference?

As I've said before, it's about manners. Dr. Masters is gracious enough to provide a forum where people can discuss weather and climate; kind enough to write lengthy and very educational blog entries for us to read; and intellectually honest enough to allow open dissent and even insult from people to whom he's vastly superior in education and experience. I've never understood why some can't be just as gracious in return.

Bad parenting, perhaps?
Well, whatever forms in the west Caribbean will definitely steer northeasterly as Florida's first dose of Autumn cool air is primed for next Friday!!!

Quoting Neapolitan:
One major glaring difference that so many of you seem to miss is that we don't go to Bastardi's site and use his own software to bash him. Are you not able to see that difference?

As I've said before, it's about manners. Dr. Masters is gracious enough to provide a forum where people can discuss weather and climate; kind enough to write lengthy and very educational blog entries for us to read; and intellectually honest enough to allow open dissent and even insult from people to whom he's vastly superior in education and experience. I've never understood why some can't be just as gracious in return.

Bad parenting, perhaps?


LOL..bad parenting?, this forum reminds me of a sandbox every time I visit here but as you just said, its about manners..just because you dont visit Bastardi site as you claim, you still bash/criticize him on a public forum and the man does know weather and has far better credentials than most people here on this blog..I have to go back and read Aussie's statement because i saw nothing malicious about what he wrote in regards to Dr. Masters, even the great one has come on here and said he didnt spend as much time as he would have liked in that post..
Quoting ncstorm:


LOL..bad parenting?, this forum reminds me of a sandbox every time I visit here but as you just said, its about manners..just because you dont visit Bastardi site as you claim, you still bash/criticize him on a public forum and the man does know weather and has far better credentials than most people here on this blog..I have to go back and read Aussie's statement because i saw nothing malicious about what he wrote in regards to Dr. Masters, even the great one has come on here and said he didnt spend as much time as he would have liked in that post..
Again, you misread or misinterpreted my comment; that seems to be a habit with some here. I didn't say I don't visit Bastardi's site; I said I don't go there and insult him. And the reason why I don't is that it's just bad manners to do so.