WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

September 2012 the 23rd warmest on record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:25 PM GMT on October 09, 2012

September 2012 was the 23rd warmest September on record for the contiguous U.S, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in today's State of the Climate report. The month was also the driest on record for Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, and was a top-ten driest month for six surrounding states. The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.2°F above the previous record. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record, 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S. The first week of October has been one of the coldest weeks of the year, relative to average, with record cold lows outpacing record warm highs by a ratio of four-to-one in the contiguous U.S. However, next week will be warmer than average for the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that October 2012 will rank in the coldest one-third of Octobers on record. The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and was the 3rd warmest 12-month period on record. The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012.


Figure 1. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through September, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. Outcome scenarios based on persistence of temperature from October through December, the remaining three months of 2012, are shown. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of October - Decembers on record (dark blue line), 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Most extreme January - September period on record
The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 45% during the year-to-date January - September period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012, and 79% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. Both are records. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 24%, which was the 8th greatest since 1910.


Figure 2. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - September shows that 2012 had the most extreme first nine months of the year on record, with 45% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

At the NWA 37th Annual Meeting. The SPC revealed it has an experimental program and could add a few more categories to it's outlooks, currently it's Slight, Moderate and High. The new scale could be Slight, Marginal, Enhanced, Moderate and High.


Also at the NWA conference it was announced new WX Radios will contain GPS locators so it will know where it is located in the forecast polygon.

Also announced the new GOES-R.
Dr. Masters, that last entry was the shortest lived blog on record on this site. haha
From previous blog

TWC naming criteria was revealed on WeatherBrains last night. Bryan Norcross revealed the criteria. He also said it was more of a marketing and a social media than a meteorological/science aim. The criteria is.....

1.Consider naming a storm if a storm will make significant impact,ice an snow.

2. Significant disruption to road and air travel.

3. If it was to cause life threatening conditions due to wind, snow, ice and cold.

This will be officially be revealed next week on TWC. There will also be another part to be released in about 2 weeks as it yet to be finalised.
Anomalous is the new normal...



What a warm year this has been. Thanks for the update Doc! Also, think about laying off the caffeine. ;)
Am I the only one who still thinks 97L has a small chance? I've seen in the latest loops that it finally looks to be actually consolidating and getting a decent spin to it, rather than whatever convection it builds being immediately stripped from is circulation.

It's not done yet, so I'm not writing it off yet; systems this year have a nack for pulling out last-minute surprises.

98L is probably most definitely going to develop... it has a good chance of being a formidable system as well.
Thanks Jeff. We've dropped to 23rd...global cooling?
Twitter by Joe Bastardi.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 55m
10N 45 west system likely to be a classified cyclone by the time it reaches Puerto Rico on weekend, Major rains at least with it for them
Thank You Dr.......Will be interesting to see if these "trends" continue into 2013 and 2014.
Getting close to having a No Major Hurricane Hits Florida Again This Year Party. Halleluyah
sept was warmer than average locally but june-aug. was cooler. e cen fl..
Starting to think 98L won't bring much rain...
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Thanks Jeff. We've dropped to 23rd...global cooling?


Uh...no. :)

This is only for the US, not the rest of the world. Also, a single month is hardly indicative of a climate trend. As Dr. M stated, overall it's very likely that 2012 will be the warmest year since record keeping began, even exceeding 1998 and this wasn't even a super strong El Nino year like 1998 was.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Thanks Jeff. We've dropped to 23rd...global cooling?


Single month is weather, not internal climate variability nor climate change.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Thanks Jeff. We've dropped to 23rd...global cooling?
That's one possible interpretation--but only if the person interpreting were to ignore that whole part where Dr. Masters wrote, "The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or that part where he wrote, "2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S."

...or that other part where he wrote, "The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or the part where he wrote, "The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012"

...or the part where he wrote, "The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history"

...or the part where he wrote, "This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%"

...or the part where he wrote, "86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012".

If you ignore those little facts--along with the additional facts that it was only the U.S. that Dr. Masters wrote about, and then only for the month of September--then, yes, you could possibly be forgiven for drawing the silly and entirely false conclusion that we're in a phase of "global cooling".
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Single month is weather, not internal climate variability nor climate change.
Unless it's hot,then we all know what it means.
Thank you, Dr. Masters. Two blogs a day, wow.

Nasa was very happy with dear old Nadine, lol ...

NASA's HS3 Mission Thoroughly Investigates Long-Lived Hurricane Nadine
ScienceDaily (Oct. 8, 2012) —
NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel or HS3 scientists had a fascinating tropical cyclone to study in long-lived Hurricane Nadine. NASA's Global Hawk aircraft has investigated Nadine five times during the storm's lifetime. Read more.

15:

FWIW, a false conclusion makes it silly? You opened the door on that one.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Getting close to having a No Major Hurricane Hits Florida Again This Year Party. Halleluyah


You went and did it! Now, we'll see a big one blow up and threaten the peninsula. Way to go Unknown.
20. 7544
looks like the new gfs now takes 98l further west and south into the caribiean will the others follow latter on
Quoting 7544:
looks like the new gfs now takes 98l further west and south into the caribiean will the others follow latter on

It seems like the GFS is one of the first models to usually sniff that out this year before the others catch on. We'll see if that's the case again.
2 PM TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Human Greenhouse Gas Emissions Traced to Roman Times

By burning wood, humans have been significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions as far back as the Roman Empire, researchers say.

The finding may lead scientists to rethink some aspects of climate change models, which assume humans weren't responsible for much greenhouse gas before the Industrial Revolution.

"It was believed that emissions started in 1850. We showed that humans already started to impact greenhouse effects much before," study co-author Célia Sapart of Utretcht University in the Netherlands said.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with 20 times the warming power of carbon dioxide, Sapart told LiveScience. Forest fires, wetlands and volcanic eruptions naturally release methane into the atmosphere. But human actions, such as raising cattle or burning fossil fuel, now account for more than half of the methane released.


---

Very interesting. More here. Even includes a graph with pretty colors.

Link
thanks for update doc

faster and faster
Thank you Dr. Masters
Quoting 7544:
looks like the new gfs now takes 98l further west and south into the caribiean will the others follow latter on


It meanders for what seems an eternity around the Islands but It doesnt seem to develop for two weeks and clear of the Islands it becomes this

Quoting unknowncomic:
Getting close to having a No Major Hurricane Hits Florida Again This Year Party. Halleluyah
Remember what Yogi Berra said comic....
Look what the 12z CMC does.

Link
Quoting VR46L:


It meanders for what seems an eternity around the Islands but It doesnt seem to develop for two weeks and clear of the Islands it becomes this


I'm pretty grounded with the GFS this year. I'm usually not, but this year has really showcased it's best stuff.
Red Bull balloon launch just aborted, too windy.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I'm pretty grounded with the GFS this year. I'm usually not, but this year has really showcased it's best stuff.


Yep it was the only one to nail Debby, and had Isaac in the bag first, but I will argue they all missed Michael til it was on its way to a major
Quoting VR46L:


Yep it was the only one to nail Debby, and had Isaac in the bag first, but I will argue they all missed Michael til it was on its way to a major

I think everyone missed Michael. He was a rockstar that defied all the forecasts. I'll give the GFS a pass on that one. ;)
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I think everyone missed Michael. He was a rockstar that defied all the forecasts. I'll give the GFS a pass on that one. ;)


Michael was hoot...formed north in cooler waters I am not even sure if he was a wave ..and to think he is the only major of the year but a sweet lovely storm

Quoting overwash12:
Unless it's hot,then we all know what it means.


Hot weather, cold weather, rainy weather, dry weather. Doesn't matter.

Single event is weather. Single month is weather. Seasons to 1-2 year spans are a mix of weather and internal climate variability. Spans of 5-10yrs can be internal climate variability and in some cases considered climate. Periods of 20-30yrs is climate of length that can potentially be used to estimate climate changes.

In the context of climate change that involves our currently observed global warming, warm events on the shorter scales are consistent with, but not direct evident of, climate change. And as we know, when looking at the periods greater than 30yrs, the changes are unequivocal.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I think everyone missed Michael. He was a rockstar that defied all the forecasts. I'll give the GFS a pass on that one. ;)


How dare you! :P
Noticed it before the NHC circled it, formed from a disturbance that was born out of an ULL. At the start it had a really nice 850mb vort but little convection.
Quoting VR46L:


Michael was hoot...formed north in cooler waters I am not even sure if he was a wave ..and to think he is the only major of the year but a sweet lovely storm

i was particularly fond of that mariner storm :P
98l is showing signs of consolidation
Something we are missing in looking for yellow circles huh...........GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG
THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BY WED NIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF 10N90W. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE
FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ENHANCES THE FLOW OVER THE
N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS RELATED TO THIS LOW VERSUS RUNS FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS...AND
RAISES CONFIDENCE LEVEL WITH RESPECT TO WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
FORECASTS IN THE GRIDS.

WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING
A LARGE NW SWELL WAVE TRAIN THAT ENCROACHES INTO THE FAR NW
SECTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING ON WED AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS IS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA
BY THAT TIME. THE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE SEAS OF UP
TO 10 OR 11 FT.

$$
AGUIRRE/CHRISTENSEN
GFS at 177 hours...............
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Uh...no. :)

This is only for the US, not the rest of the world. Also, a single month is hardly indicative of a climate trend. As Dr. M stated, overall it's very likely that 2012 will be the warmest year since record keeping began, even exceeding 1998 and this wasn't even a super strong El Nino year like 1998 was.


Uh, I know, but thanks. There is no tongue in cheek button...
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Single month is weather, not internal climate variability nor climate change.


...and thank you
44. wpb
Quoting barbamz:
Thank you, Dr. Masters. Two blogs a day, wow.

Nasa was very happy with dear old Nadine, lol ...

NASA's HS3 Mission Thoroughly Investigates Long-Lived Hurricane Nadine
ScienceDaily (Oct. 8, 2012) —
NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel or HS3 scientists had a fascinating tropical cyclone to study in long-lived Hurricane Nadine. NASA's Global Hawk aircraft has investigated Nadine five times during the storm's lifetime. Read more.

nice post
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's one possible interpretation--but only if the person interpreting were to ignore that whole part where Dr. Masters wrote, "The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or that part where he wrote, "2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S."

...or that other part where he wrote, "The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or the part where he wrote, "The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012"

...or the part where he wrote, "The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history"

...or the part where he wrote, "This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%"

...or the part where he wrote, "86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012".

If you ignore those little facts--along with the additional facts that it was only the U.S. that Dr. Masters wrote about, and then only for the month of September--then, yes, you could possibly be forgiven for drawing the silly and entirely false conclusion that we're in a phase of "global cooling".


...and you. You must not be very busy
18z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2012100918, , BEST, 0, 93N, 483W, 25, 1008, LO
Quoting Wunderwood:


You went and did it! Now, we'll see a big one blow up and threaten the peninsula. Way to go Unknown.
Either way there is a hurricane party.
Love the LBAR and BAMM :) Really really really want some weather here.
Quoting LargoFl:


WHXX01 KWBC 091756
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1756 UTC TUE OCT 9 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121009 1800 121010 0600 121010 1800 121011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 50.6W 10.5N 53.0W 11.2N 55.4W
BAMD 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 50.4W 11.0N 52.0W 12.6N 53.4W
BAMM 9.3N 48.3W 9.8N 50.8W 10.7N 52.8W 11.7N 54.7W
LBAR 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 51.5W 10.7N 54.4W 11.7N 57.1W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121011 1800 121012 1800 121013 1800 121014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 58.1W 13.2N 62.7W 13.8N 66.3W 13.7N 69.7W
BAMD 14.5N 54.6W 18.7N 56.9W 22.2N 58.7W 24.1N 59.2W
BAMM 12.9N 56.4W 15.3N 59.4W 17.2N 61.8W 17.6N 63.7W
LBAR 13.2N 59.4W 17.0N 62.8W 20.3N 63.4W 21.8N 61.8W
SHIP 28KTS 24KTS 27KTS 36KTS
DSHP 28KTS 24KTS 27KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 43.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 39.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18Z BAMM = 1999 JOSE

18Z LBAR = 1995 MARILYN (more or less)
98L RGB GIF



and rainbow

97L RGB GIF



97L RAINBOW GIF

Quoting NttyGrtty:


...and you. You must not be very busy
Oh, I'm very busy; I can't rest until the forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution propaganda have been vanquished. And that may take a while... ;-)
97 making a run a status
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I'm very busy; I can't rest until the forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution propaganda have been vanquished. And that may take a while... ;-)


The forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution propaganda? It was a tongue in cheek comment to Jeff on Jeff's blog. May I suggest you let it go? It wasn't serious. In other words, lighten up Francis...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

PRC081-083-093-131-091900-
LARES PR-MARICAO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
210 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

AT 206 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN SEBASTIAN AND LAS MARIAS...OR ABOUT 3
MILES WEST OF LARES...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG
WITH BLINDING RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.


HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

$$
12Z UKM 120HRS

Quoting NttyGrtty:


The forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution proaganda? It was a tongue in cheek comment to Jeff on Jeff's blog. May I suggest you let it go? It wasn't serious. In other words, lighten up Francis...
Oh, I see. Well, I've got a few suggestions of my own: a) if you don't wish to have a comment responded to, don't post it in a public forum, and b), if you're being facetious, make sure to communicate that clearly. Trust me; I learned those things the hard way. ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I'm very busy; I can't rest until the forces of anti-science ignorance and pro-pollution propaganda have been vanquished. And that may take a while... ;-)


Well, I'm currently holding the fort against the swivel eyed hordes of Mordor in the comments section of a Daily Telegraph article.

You could pop in there now and again, but it gets pretty repetetive, as you know.

Link
12Z EURO 48HR




72HR



120HR



144HR

San Juan NWS Discussion doesn't say much... Looks like there are big uncertainties. If they were more confident they would say more I guess.


FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANYING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS SO FAR EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

Quoting CaribBoy:
12Z EURO 48HR




72HR



120HR



144HR

Euro likes it more than yesterday but the gfs has it weaker than yesterday cmc still the same.
Quoting islander101010:
97 making a run a status


I dont know about that it seems to want to join that front and the shear seems to be damaging it IMO

Funk floater

Link
Hey does anyone know if there have been any updates to GOES-13 or is 14 still covering?
Quoting CaribBoy:
San Juan NWS Discussion doesn't say much... Looks like there are big uncertainties. If they were more confident they would say more I guess.


FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANYING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS SO FAR EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.



Good luck ! hope you get the rain
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, I'm currently holding the fort against the swivel eyed hordes of Mordor in the comments section of a Daily Telegraph article.

You could pop in there now and again, but it gets pretty repetetive, as you know.

Link
Heading over there shortly; Delingpole is one of the absolute worst.

On another note: won't it be funny when the three people who voted up your comment in haste actually take the time to read it or follow the link? ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Heading over there shortly; Delingpole is one of the absolute worst.

On another note: won't it be funny when the three people who voted up your comment in haste actually take the time to read it or follow the link? ;-)


Well, maybe it was the reference to the 'swivel eyed hordes of Mordor' that brought a smile to their faces. I'll use that one again

There's a regular columnist on there who's 10X worse than Dellingpole. Can't remember his name, but I'll have a look for it.

Edit: Christopher Booker.
Quoting calkevin77:
Hey does anyone know if there have been any updates to GOES-13 or is 14 still covering?

The latest status message says the satellite is still in the process of being checked out/recovered, but it's looking like GOES-14 will have to replace it.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Heading over there shortly; Delingpole is one of the absolute worst.

On another note: won't it be funny when the three people who voted up your comment in haste actually take the time to read it or follow the link? ;-)


I dont think so ....I read the telegraph...and what gives you the right to judge why I voted for a comment anyway
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, maybe it was the reference to the 'swivel eyed hordes of Mordor' that brought a smile to their faces. I'll use that one again

There's a regular columnist on there who's 10X worse than Dellingpole. Can't remember his name, but I'll have a look for it.
I assume you're referring to Christopher Booker. If so, I concur: he is definitely worse than Delingpole. Delingpole hurts his own cause by being nastily incendiary, making him easy to mock. Booker, OTOH, tries the "concern troll" approach, which is far more insidious. The pair of them have been debunked and discredited literally hundreds of times--but, after all, it is the Telegraph... ;-)
The journal Psychological Science in the Public Interest recently published a free, open access article titled
"Misinformation and Its Correction: Continued Influence and Successful Debiasing"
which can be found here.

http://psi.sagepub.com/content/13/3/106.full



Best 850mb Vort I've seen in SW Caribbean in quite a while.


watch the Epac....
Ref comment 72 also see

http://www.bboyscience.com/myth-busting-aint-easy /



Myth Busting Ain't Easy - The Science of Correcting Misinformation
Posted on October 8, 2012

I thoroughly enjoy myth-busting. It's a good way to learn, it potentially saves you time and money, and it's just plain fun. It's also a big part of why I love science - the best myth-busting method ever (I'm a science fan-boy).

But it's not always fun and games.

Correcting misinformation can be incredibly frustrating. And when it comes to topics of science, health, and politics, the stakes can be very high. It's not just about the lack of public understanding - it can cost lives.

Misinformation has a pesky tendency to stick inside our brains, even after it's been corrected. And when the misinformation jives with the way people see the world, trying to correct them can actually backfire, increasing their misguided beliefs.

Psychologists have been studying these things for a while. Recently, a research article has been published that discusses how misinformation spreads, how it sticks, and the best ways to correct it.
I am ready for the blob over the Bahamas to get sucked into the jet and moved NE.

The extreme index has been increasing fairly stedily since 1970. That is a 40 year trend and as such qualifies as climate, correct?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

GOES-14 is permanently taking over GOES-13.


Link?
Hurricane Ivan in 2004:


Anyone else see the resemblance, assuming 98L can get oraganized?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link?


Goes-13 hasn't been working since September 23. It's now been declared DOA.

GOES-13 Link
Quoting sar2401:


Goes-13 hasn't been working since September 23. It's now been declared DOA.

GOES-13 Link



That link and others still indicate the anomaly is under investigation and no permanent change has occurred yet.
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, maybe it was the reference to the 'swivel eyed hordes of Mordor' that brought a smile to their faces. I'll use that one again

There's a regular columnist on there who's 10X worse than Dellingpole. Can't remember his name, but I'll have a look for it.

Edit: Christopher Booker.


It was. The Lord of the Rings trilogy is one of my favs
Reed Timmer has jumped on the hype wagon (as always) and is saying Saturday will be a "MAJOR tornado outbreak". This is several days out, so calling anything MAJOR at this point is a bit silly, and even if the event were within close range, the narrow and relatively weak corridor of instability depicted by the models is likely not enough for a big outbreak.



Wind shear is more than plentiful, however:

Quoting Neapolitan:
Heading over there shortly; Delingpole is one of the absolute worst.

On another note: won't it be funny when the three people who voted up your comment in haste actually take the time to read it or follow the link? ;-)


grand-standing humor huh.....great mo...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



That link and others still indicate the anomaly is under investigation and no permanent change has occurred yet.

I revised my comment to read, "The latest status message says the satellite is still in the process of being checked out/recovered, but it's looking like GOES-14 will have to replace it."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I revised my comment to read, "The latest status message says the satellite is still in the process of being checked out/recovered, but it's looking like GOES-14 will have to replace it."


Hope that does not happen, leaves us without a backup for 3 years and blows the replacement schedule apart.
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, maybe it was the reference to the 'swivel eyed hordes of Mordor' that brought a smile to their faces. I'll use that one again

There's a regular columnist on there who's 10X worse than Dellingpole. Can't remember his name, but I'll have a look for it.

Edit: Christopher Booker.


I'm heeding my own advice and ignoring the troll...
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090853
SPC AC 090853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A REMNANT CLOSED
LOW...OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...
WILL FINALLY ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY...BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
...INCLUDING A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION...
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STILL APPEAR MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THE SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL POSSIBLE
WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB
JET...AND 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...A REGIONAL SEVERE OUTLOOK
APPEARS WARRANTED...AS THE POTENTIAL EVENT BEGINS TO COME WITHIN A
MORE PREDICTABLE TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 10/09/2012
Good afternoon. Prapiroon:

HPC extended discussion

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEK WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A
SURFACE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
I see we got something to watch in the Atlantic..

Everyone have a great end to the day!

12z CMC-
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The journal Psychological Science in the Public Interest recently published a free, open access article titled
"Misinformation and Its Correction: Continued Influence and Successful Debiasing"
which can be found here.

http://psi.sagepub.com/content/13/3/106.full



Thank you CRS, this link and the one in your post #75 are very interesting and informative. Much appreciated!
Quoting sar2401:
Hurricane Ivan in 2004:


Anyone else see the resemblance, assuming 98L can get oraganized?


knowing how weird this year has been...that loop in the GOM could even be possible
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


WHXX01 KWBC 091756
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1756 UTC TUE OCT 9 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121009 1800 121010 0600 121010 1800 121011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 50.6W 10.5N 53.0W 11.2N 55.4W
BAMD 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 50.4W 11.0N 52.0W 12.6N 53.4W
BAMM 9.3N 48.3W 9.8N 50.8W 10.7N 52.8W 11.7N 54.7W
LBAR 9.3N 48.3W 9.9N 51.5W 10.7N 54.4W 11.7N 57.1W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 26KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121011 1800 121012 1800 121013 1800 121014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 58.1W 13.2N 62.7W 13.8N 66.3W 13.7N 69.7W
BAMD 14.5N 54.6W 18.7N 56.9W 22.2N 58.7W 24.1N 59.2W
BAMM 12.9N 56.4W 15.3N 59.4W 17.2N 61.8W 17.6N 63.7W
LBAR 13.2N 59.4W 17.0N 62.8W 20.3N 63.4W 21.8N 61.8W
SHIP 28KTS 24KTS 27KTS 36KTS
DSHP 28KTS 24KTS 27KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 43.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 39.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

YES WE need to watch that next week for sure
..tomorrow should be even better than today humidity wise yesssss..meanwhile today, just some low clouds..no rain at all
When Mother Nature Flex's..we can feel it huh.......
98 is a big system
18Z NAM

Link
98L looking good on the RGB in motion at the NHC this afternoon,kind of think they'll bump it up later tonight. 40% maybe
97L looking like it is attempting to try to get it together. If it strengthens it may be able to pull drier and possibly cooler air down into parts of FL on its west side....
Quoting CaribBoy:
18Z NAM

Link
if this system plays out your going to get what youve been looking for some good wind and rain
Invest 98 center passing 48.5 West / 9.3 North , T & T & the Windwards coming into view.Just not seeing this big swing to the north varying models are showing. They may not have a good grasp on 98 at this stage, may change if it gets up to a TD & better data flows in for analysis ? Thoughts anyone?


NHC should push 98L up to 30% at 8pm. The broad circulation it has is open on the SW, but is slowly getting its act together to say the least...
98L still has a shot.


98L

So bearing in mind that its the 9th of October.
The temp was 35/ C in Seville today, about 96/F, sapphire blue skies and not a breath of wind. How different from 2 weeks ago with up to 12 inches of rain falling in the area in a day.
I read that Telegraph article, not that I understood it.
Interesting comment I have from a builder friend of mine who is working on building a big testing shed for windmill blades in the north of England. The blades of the windmills are 100 meters,(330 feet) long and are made in India. The concrete for the testing area was the largest concrete pour in recent UK history and was done by a firm of Pakistanis. Who completed their job and went home!
These windmills are going to have a sweep of about 600 feet, sort of awesome!
I have no linkable confirmation of this but I assume its true coming from a colleague of many years.
Only got to 69F here in Cnetral Jacksonville.
Reached a whopping 58F this afternoon with overcast skies.

Can't wait for it to snow.
Socked in cloudy down here on the plains...



And what's this... a freaking fire in Rocky Mountain National Park?



Click image to link to a Boulder Daily Camera article with very limited info...

(NOTE - the top image is a live webcam. The bottom image was apparently taken before a low deck of stratus moved in across the area. The fire zone is, I believe, above the stratus deck).
Quoting superpete:
Invest 98 center passing 48.5 West / 9.3 North , T & T & the Windwards coming into view.Just not seeing this big swing to the north varying models are showing. They may not have a good grasp on 98 at this stage, may change if it gets up to a TD & better data flows in for analysis ? Thoughts anyone?




Hi Pete,

The models see the Atl high well off to the NE which would make the steering NW once it reaches the Islands.

Later in the run the GFS has 98L meandering back to the West into the West/ central caribbean. The 18Z run is not finished now but take a look at where the GFS has the steering high and 98L in the image below which is this Saturday.

Sorry, have to run now
Quoting MrMixon:
Socked in cloudy down here on the plains...



And what's this... a freaking fire in Rocky Mountain National Park?



Click image to link to a Boulder Daily Camera article with very limited info...

(NOTE - the top image is a live webcam. The bottom image was apparently taken before a low deck of stratus moved in across the area. The fire zone is, I believe, above the stratus deck).


Additional note - According to this (also short) article there is a pre-evacuation notice for the YMCA near the park.
Good afternoon fellow bloggers!
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's one possible interpretation--but only if the person interpreting were to ignore that whole part where Dr. Masters wrote, "The warm September temperatures helped make the year-to-date period of January - September the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or that part where he wrote, "2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record in the U.S."

...or that other part where he wrote, "The October 2011-September 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S."

...or the part where he wrote, "The six warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012"

...or the part where he wrote, "The year-to-date period was the most extreme in U.S. history"

...or the part where he wrote, "This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than double the average value of 20%"

...or the part where he wrote, "86% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first nine months of 2012".

If you ignore those little facts--along with the additional facts that it was only the U.S. that Dr. Masters wrote about, and then only for the month of September--then, yes, you could possibly be forgiven for drawing the silly and entirely false conclusion that we're in a phase of "global cooling".




The AGW gang say its true, I believe them and that is all there is to it.

Ah yes, I almost forgot. Silly me.



GFS! Listen! Put me in the right quad!!!!! Thanks!
18Z NO LONGER SHOWS A SLOW MOVER.
If this damn 18Z materializes we won't GET MUCH RAIN :(
Interesting!! that most of the models take 97L not NE but South west over Cuba (See CMC) and then the moisture going North again toward South Florida,if this solution fan out we can have a continue very wet few days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reached a whopping 58F this afternoon with overcast skies.

Can't wait for it to snow.

Wow, it is colder there than it is here. I am at 59F right now and was higher earlier today.
123. JLPR2
Last GFS run developed 98L faster than any previous one & yep, it's looking better.

Here is a rundown of the models in terms of Puerto Rico is concerned.



The GFS places it Northeast Monday at 6 am as a tropical depression.

The ECMWF places it touching to the Northeast on Saturday at noon as a strong wave, perhaps depression.

The CMC puts it almost impacting to the Southwest on Sunday early in the morning as a strong tropical storm, perhaps more.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Interesting!! that most of the models take 97L not NE but South west over Cuba (See CMC) and then the moisture going North again toward South Florida,if this solution fan out we can have a continue very wet few days.


Speaking of cold weather, the heat for the first floor of my house broke. :( It is currently a balmy 62 inside, thanks to the insulation keeping the warmth we have in. Second floor works fine, a nice 68 there.

My poor toes have gone numb, they are the only things I can't keep warm.
72 hours


GFS 138 Hours with NNW movement

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reached a whopping 58F this afternoon with overcast skies.

Can't wait for it to snow.


58F and overcast here too, same on the snow. Need more.
98L on the move...

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is a rundown of the models in terms of Puerto Rico is concerned.



The GFS places it Northeast Monday at 6 am as a tropical depression.

The ECMWF places it touching to the Northeast on Saturday at noon as a strong wave, perhaps depression.

The CMC puts it almost impacting to the Southwest on Sunday early in the morning as a strong tropical storm, perhaps more.
Perhaps you are more informed. Is it true that it would be a slow mover when it passes near us? if it affects us I'm saying...that could mean lots of trouble...
97L on the move



Your turn Geoff
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Perhaps you are more informed. Is it true that it would be a slow mover when it passes near us? if it affects us I'm saying...that could mean lots of trouble...


You may know when it rains a lot here how it floods in many parts of the island. If it moves slow,it may dump between 3-5 inches with higher totals in the mountains.
Quoting Grothar:br /
Your turn Geoff


Oooo, chess match.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Oooo, chess match.


It gives the old guy something to do.
...and here I thought Grothar was matchless.

: )
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
...and here I thought Grothar was matchless.

: )


Notice Geoff isn't posting anything. Checkmate!!
138. SLU
Knowing the conservative NHC i'll say no more than 30% despite 98L's much improved satellite representation.
Tropics are quiet

140. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 092338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD
AND MERGES WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
IF..your thinking a florida vacation..THIS is the week..going to be beautiful here this whole week, rain gone and a beautiful beach week it is now........
For anyone who said remains at 20%, you are correct.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.
Quoting wxchaser97:
For anyone who said remains at 20%, you are correct.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.


Even thou they did not increased the percent, the wording is a little bit more bullish if you read it closely.
98L has a lot of convection but hasn't been able to organize it:



97L probably won't be with us much longer:

Interesting that the lastest GFS has 97L moving back SW.

Potent System in the NE Caribbean.

While Saturday will likely be the main event (hesitant to call it a major outbreak until we get closer in time), Friday may also be a big day for portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as SE Colorado and SW Kansas.

Look at this sounding..

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Potent System in the NE Caribbean.


Refresh?
Any of you guys going to tune in to Reed Timmer's podcast @9pm EDT?
Quoting PlazaRed:
So bearing in mind that its the 9th of October.
The temp was 35/ C in Seville today, about 96/F, sapphire blue skies and not a breath of wind. How different from 2 weeks ago with up to 12 inches of rain falling in the area in a day.
I read that Telegraph article, not that I understood it.
Interesting comment I have from a builder friend of mine who is working on building a big testing shed for windmill blades in the north of England. The blades of the windmills are 100 meters,(330 feet) long and are made in India. The concrete for the testing area was the largest concrete pour in recent UK history and was done by a firm of Pakistanis. Who completed their job and went home!
These windmills are going to have a sweep of about 600 feet, sort of awesome!
I have no linkable confirmation of this but I assume its true coming from a colleague of many years.


600 foot sweep? If so the blade tips will be moving pretty fast ~1900 ft, 15 rpm, 320 mi/h. Watch out birds!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While Saturday will likely be the main event (hesitant to call it a major outbreak until we get closer in time), Friday may also be a big day for portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as SE Colorado and SW Kansas.

Look at this sounding..

I wish I knew how to read this, but I think shear values have to be high for a decent outbreak.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Potent System in the NE Caribbean.


I see a TS just to the NW of Puerto Rico, nothing in the Caribbean.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While Saturday will likely be the main event (hesitant to call it a major outbreak until we get closer in time), Friday may also be a big day for portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, as well as SE Colorado and SW Kansas.

Look at this sounding..


I'm looking forward to tracking some severe weather. Hurricanes are the best but we have to mix it up sometimes, especially since this year's severe season was so weak.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I see a TS just to the NW of Puerto Rico, nothing in the Caribbean.
It was an old run, I needed to refresh that one, it takes too long for the 12z ensemble runs to come out and it is already past 8PM EDT.
Quoting Progster:


600 foot sweep? If so the blade tips will be moving pretty fast ~1900 ft circumference, 15 rpm, 320 mi/h. Watch out birds!


forgot to add the word "circumference". Long day at work.
161. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Even thou they did not increased the percent, the wording is a little bit more bullish if you read it closely.


Which made sense to increase the percentage to medium. The NHC made this same mistake with the pre-Tomas wave in the same location 2 years ago. They dismissed the system's chances of development and kept the probability at under 30% when the system was showing obvious signs of development just because it was late-October. Then the system exploded from a T-wave to a cat 2 hurricane operationally in under 30 hrs right over the islands, catching everyone off guard.
A small change in the 8 PM TWO was that they took out the words " Development if any".
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A small change in the 8 PM TWO was that they took out the words " Development if any".

Not really... they just changed it to "any development"... they pretty much just reissued the same TWO they've had up for the last day or two.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A small change in the 8 PM TWO was that they took out the words " Development if any".

And replaced it with "any development..." =P

They do note that shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated over the past few hours.
Analogs for 98L

Tomas 2010
Quoting SLU:


Which made sense to increase the percentage to medium. The NHC made this same mistake with the pre-Tomas wave in the same location 2 years ago. They dismissed the system's chances of development and kept the probability at under 30% when the system was showing obvious signs of development just because it was late-October. Then the system exploded from a T-wave to a cat 2 hurricane operationally in under 30 hrs right over the islands, catching everyone off guard.


exactly
09/2345 UTC 9.5N 50.2W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
09/2345 UTC 25.4N 72.0W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
I now this may be before you time, TA13. But that image reminds me of an old video game... Let;s see if anyone can guess the name of the game.
Sept Co2 is in

391.07ppm


co2now.org



Quoting SLU:


Which made sense to increase the percentage to medium. The NHC made this same mistake with the pre-Tomas wave in the same location 2 years ago. They dismissed the system's chances of development and kept the probability at under 30% when the system was showing obvious signs of development just because it was late-October. Then the system exploded from a T-wave to a cat 2 hurricane operationally in under 30 hrs right over the islands, catching everyone off guard.
They wont change there conservative way of forecastings storms, sometimes they go to the extremes,as you say with pre-Tomas, until they see consistency, they wont raise the , numbers, they are betting on the shear...lets see who wins the battle if the NHC or 98L,...that thing seems to be fighting hard to enhance its status....,
ULL sagging Southwestwards towards the NE Caribbean Islands, Trough has pushed off the East Coast and even cleared my area in Central FL. 97L pretty much in the middle of the picture and 98L bottom right.

www.solarham.net


SOLAR FLARE ALERT:

A moderate solar flare reaching M1.7 took place at 23:31 UTC Tuesday evening.
The flare was centered off the southeast limb. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.


Added 10/09/2012 @ 23:40 UTC
M-Flare
A sunspot region about to rotate into view off the southeast limb just produced a moderate M1.7 Solar Flare at 23:31 UTC Tuesday evening. Image by SDO.

Quoting Grothar:
Tropics are quiet

Not quiet, but taking there time, rather...
Added 10/09/2012 @ 17:45 UTC

Aurora from 21,000 Feet

Another fantastic Aurora image submitted by Matt Melnyk, this time from 21,000 feet in the air over Alberta, Canada. "Here are some shots of last nights display from 21,000 feet. I am a pilot so I get a great view of the aurora from the cockpit. This was between 02:30 am and 03:30 am while flying to Fort McMurray from Edmonton at 21,000 feet."

Quoting stormchaser19:
Analogs for 98L

Tomas 2012


Or...
The 2011 La Nina: Queensland floods contribute to temporary drop in sea-level

Posted on October 10, 2012

By Kelly


GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L19602, 5 PP., 2012


That’s right, there is new evidence that demonstrates that the amount of rain that fell on the terrestrial biosphere during the 2011 La Nina event was enough to register a decrease in global mean sea level (GMSL). And while this may not come as news to people living in Queensland it certainly highlights the magnitude of influence that the El Niño (and his opposite La Niña) Southern Oscillation has on the global water cycle.

In an article published in Geophysical Research Letters and highlighted in Science Editor’s Choice, Boening et al., report that GMSL dropped 5mm between the beginning of 2010 and mid 2011. This is a significant amount if you consider that GMSL has been rising 1.7mm per year since ~1880, and accelerated to 3mm per year over the past 18 years (measured by satellite altimeters, and programs such as GRACE). These findings do not in any way undermine the sea-level rise predicted with continued warming. The strength of the 2011 La Niña only demonstrates the extreme nature of events that are anticipated under current climate change projections.

...
Quoting SLU:


Which made sense to increase the percentage to medium. The NHC made this same mistake with the pre-Tomas wave in the same location 2 years ago. They dismissed the system's chances of development and kept the probability at under 30% when the system was showing obvious signs of development just because it was late-October. Then the system exploded from a T-wave to a cat 2 hurricane operationally in under 30 hrs right over the islands, catching everyone off guard.


Strong shear is on 98L.... rapid development is not expected.. at least for now but who knows
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Not quiet, but taking there time, rather...
Conditions might stay favorable for development for the rest of this month.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
ULL sagging Southwestwards towards the NE Caribbean Islands, Trough has pushed off the East Coast and even cleared my area in Central FL. 97L pretty much in the middle of the picture and 98L bottom right.



As long that ULL is there,it will protect the islands from 98L developing into a TC.But plenty of rain is a sure thing regardless of development or not.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


two active regions will come soon in full view

something big is moving into view


Quoting Dakster:
I now this may be before you time, TA13. But that image reminds me of an old video game... Let;s see if anyone can guess the name of the game.


Wasn't it called "Spikes" or something like that?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Wasn't it called "Spikes" or something like that?


Close.. Tempest..
Quoting Dakster:


Close.. Tempest..


That's it!

Tempest
KOTG - That could be an interesting sun spot...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 10 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (960 hPa) located at 18.3N 130.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.9N 128.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.2N 128.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.9N 127.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting Stoopid1:
Only got to 69F here in Cnetral Jacksonville.

Wow, I would love that here in West Palm Beach. Down here it is like we have been in summer since March 2011, with a few cold days.
190. etxwx
Local news on Prapiroon (Nina):
Typhoon Nina (Prapiroon) moves W-NW, fishermen warned vs big waves
October 10, 2012 8:20am
State weather forecasters on Wednesday warned fishermen and small seacraft in the country's northern and eastern seaboards against big waves as Typhoon Nina (Prapiroon) moved west-northwest.

PAGASA forecaster Bernie de Leon said that, while Typhoon Nina is still too far to directly affect the country, it is enhancing strong- to gale-force winds that could genereate big waves.
"TY Nina remains a slow-moving system northeast of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Owing to its distance to Luzon island including its expected recurvature —from northwest to northeast movement within the next two days— TY Nina does not pose a direct threat to any part of the archipelago, with respect to rainfall. However, its elongated trough will affect central and southern parts of Luzon, Visayas and northern Mindanao where occasional light to moderate rains or thunderstorms will prevail today," said GMA resident meteorologist Nathaniel "Mang Tani" Cruz.

"Sea conditions will be rough to very rough over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas. Gale warning is now in effect in these areas and small seacraft are advised not to venture out into the sea," he added.

Typhoon Nina is forecast to turn and head in a northeastern path away from the PAR by this weekend:
97L:



98L:

193. wxmod
The North Pacific. MODIS satellite photo today

194. wxmod
North Pacific. MODIS satellite photo

195. wxmod
MODIS satellite photo of the North Pacific today

196. wxmod
This is a satellite photo of a large ship via MODIS Terra satellite. The image has a resolution of 250 meters. And the ship itself covers ten or fifteen pixels. It's a BIG ship. Date 10-9-12

Another Tweet by JB.


@BigJoeBastardi

Finally some moist air in traditional atlantic breeding ground at 400 mb. should allow development on way nw.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Another Tweet by JB.


@BigJoeBastardi

Finally some moist air in traditional atlantic breeding ground at 400 mb. should allow development on way nw.

Link
Hope it stays weak i just want the rain.
People follow JB still?

Quoting Gearsts:
Hope it stays weak i just want the rain.


So do I :)
There are now 71 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice
Quoting wxmod:
MODIS satellite photo of the North Pacific today

I like these photos of contrails.
Hay, Pat. These look familiar?



Definitely,

I had a conversation today with another Fella who was with us there in 84.

Was a good conversation fer sho.
What is the sun up to now? Another burst of the auroras, and flares, huh?

Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - That could be an interesting sun spot...


Oooo, pretty blue lights on the shore, and they are living creatures.

NOGAPS 66 hrs.


Active sun indeed.

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2012101000, , BEST, 0, 89N, 504W, 30, 1009, LO
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NOGAPS 66 hrs.


??
SHIP is more bullish at 00z.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0215 UTC WED OCT 10 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121010 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121010 0000 121010 1200 121011 0000 121011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 50.4W 9.5N 52.5W 10.3N 54.6W 10.9N 56.9W
BAMD 8.9N 50.4W 9.7N 52.2W 11.0N 53.7W 12.6N 55.2W
BAMM 8.9N 50.4W 9.6N 52.4W 10.7N 53.9W 11.9N 55.4W
LBAR 8.9N 50.4W 9.9N 53.1W 11.0N 55.5W 12.4N 57.8W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121012 0000 121013 0000 121014 0000 121015 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 59.1W 12.8N 62.8W 13.7N 65.2W 14.2N 67.3W
BAMD 14.5N 56.7W 18.1N 59.6W 20.6N 62.0W 22.9N 63.8W
BAMM 13.2N 56.8W 15.8N 59.2W 18.1N 61.2W 19.7N 62.7W
LBAR 14.1N 59.7W 17.6N 62.0W 21.1N 61.8W 22.6N 61.1W
SHIP 40KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS
DSHP 40KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 50.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 8.2N LONM12 = 46.5W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 41.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NOGAPS 66 hrs.




Don't like it... looks like Ophelia last year. ALL THE RAIN STAYED JUST OFFSHORE. WHAT A SAME!!!
98L has some moderate wind shear to deal with after 24 hours, but other than that, it's smooth sailing for the invest.

SHEAR (KT) 6 13 14 13 21 26 29 32 27 23 18 22 23
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
98L has some moderate wind shear to deal with after 24 hours, but other than that, it's smooth sailing for the invest.

SHEAR (KT) 6 13 14 13 21 26 29 32 27 23 18 22 23


Why SHIP is more bullish on intensity with that moderate shear that will have to deal with?
I wanna be in the RIGHT QUAD please :'(
Quoting CaribBoy:


Don't like it... looks like Ophelia last year. ALL THE RAIN STAYED JUST OFFSHORE. WHAT A SAME!!!
Yeah that's why I posted it. It could be lopsided at first due to the shear, but it is the NOGAPS afterall :P
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Why SHIP is more bullish on intensity with that moderate shear that will have to deal with?

The wind shear predicted is not strong enough to prevent development and intensification, it will just hinder it. All of the other parameters, such as Sea Surface Temperatures and mid-level Relative Humidity, are quite favorable for steady development.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SHIP is more bullish at 00z.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0215 UTC WED OCT 10 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121010 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121010 0000 121010 1200 121011 0000 121011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.9N 50.4W 9.5N 52.5W 10.3N 54.6W 10.9N 56.9W
BAMD 8.9N 50.4W 9.7N 52.2W 11.0N 53.7W 12.6N 55.2W
BAMM 8.9N 50.4W 9.6N 52.4W 10.7N 53.9W 11.9N 55.4W
LBAR 8.9N 50.4W 9.9N 53.1W 11.0N 55.5W 12.4N 57.8W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121012 0000 121013 0000 121014 0000 121015 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 59.1W 12.8N 62.8W 13.7N 65.2W 14.2N 67.3W
BAMD 14.5N 56.7W 18.1N 59.6W 20.6N 62.0W 22.9N 63.8W
BAMM 13.2N 56.8W 15.8N 59.2W 18.1N 61.2W 19.7N 62.7W
LBAR 14.1N 59.7W 17.6N 62.0W 21.1N 61.8W 22.6N 61.1W
SHIP 40KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS
DSHP 40KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 50.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 8.2N LONM12 = 46.5W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 41.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIPS sucks.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah that's why I posted it. It could be lopsided at first due to the shear, but it is the NOGAPS afterall :P


With the predicted shear it will for sure
LBAR track is still OK though. Also all these tracks look pretty slow
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD PR AND USVI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. TUTT THEN
GETS ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY EVENTUALLLY
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WNW OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

&&

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE WNW AT 15 TO 20 MPH STAYING MAINLY EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO KEEP SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR FCST AREA. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IMPACTED
BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR KEEPING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY ASSYMETRIC WITH
LITTLE OR NO WEATHER ON THE WRN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...GFS HEIGHT
AND WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY BE INITIALLY MORE
SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE THAN TROPICAL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER BEING REMOVED FAR FROM THE CENTER BUT
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE TROPICAL WITH TIME. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT OFFER A BIG RELIEF TO OUR RAINFALL DEFICITS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
non earth facing side

18Z GFS Ensemble Members mostly head to system into the islands.
227. T3b0w
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210100237
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD PR AND USVI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. TUTT THEN
GETS ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY EVENTUALLLY
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WNW OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

&&

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE WNW AT 15 TO 20 MPH STAYING MAINLY EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO KEEP SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR FCST AREA. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IMPACTED
BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR KEEPING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY ASSYMETRIC WITH
LITTLE OR NO WEATHER ON THE WRN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...GFS HEIGHT
AND WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY BE INITIALLY MORE
SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE THAN TROPICAL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER BEING REMOVED FAR FROM THE CENTER BUT
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE TROPICAL WITH TIME. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT OFFER A BIG RELIEF TO OUR RAINFALL DEFICITS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.


I really hate... 2012
Anyways I see they are discounting the EURO.
Quoting CaribBoy:


I really hate... 2012
Jeez you just can't seem to win. I thought TUTT's were usually associated with El-Nino weather patterns, at least the positioning of it close to the Eastern Caribbean.
Wind Shear doing his job in NE of 98l....Ironically moist environment is his friend, thing that weren't present all the year


Tropical Storm Klaus (1990) just east of Antigua and Barbuda. NO WEATHER ON THE WEST SIDE.
Another one... just east of the Northern Leewards. And NO weather over them.

Quoting stormchaser19:
Wind Shear doing his job in NE of 98l....Ironically moist environment is his friend, thing that weren't present all the year

As long as shear doesn't get too high 98L should be able to develop. Most models show development and a hit/close call to PR. Hopefully they wouldn't get too severe of impacts.
Quoting wxchaser97:

As long as shear doesn't get too high 98L should be able to develop. Most models show development and a hit/close call to PR. Hopefully they wouldn't get too severe of impacts.


Impacts, if any.
A well organized system would be fine

Quoting wxchaser97:

As long as shear doesn't get too high 98L should be able to develop. Most models show development and a hit/close call to PR. Hopefully they wouldn't get too severe of impacts.


Nice blog update wx97..
Carribean is the wild card in all this..
And the conus is sure to see some turbulant weather as you pointed out..
Well done young man... :)
PS..your format is just fine as far as I'm concerned..
239. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:
Another one... just east of the Northern Leewards. And NO weather over them.



Seems to be quite typical of October storms in the NE Caribbean. I remember Jose passed close to me but we got no weather since most of it was on the east side due so SW shear.
Quoting CaribBoy:


Impacts, if any.


The system is disorganized and that means more west like Ecmwf and CMC are saying . PR and North of Windward island will receive a lot of rain.......This is a big system with moist enviroment all around
Quoting stormchaser19:


The system is disorganized and that means more west like Ecmwf and CMC are saying . PR and North of Windward island will receive a lot of rain.......This is a big system with moist enviroment all around


That's what I was thinking too. A disorganized system with no real COC is supposed to track more west.
Quoting SLU:


Seems to be quite typical of October storms in the NE Caribbean. I remember Jose passed close to me but we got no weather since most of it was on the east side due so SW shear.


On which island do you live?
00Z NAM

Link

98L:

100's of record lows across the central US on Oct 7th and 8th. No mention but hey Sept was the 23rd warmest lol. GW is a real problem but propaganda and irresponsible journalism pisses me off. Report the whole story not the side you want the Lemmings to follow please.
PRAPIROON



PRAPIROON OSCAT

Somebody motivate me to blog. Kinda tired of doing it so late at night. 70% of the time, Masters has a new blog just a few hours later, which effectively overshadows maximum potential for hits.

Out of all the blogs I've written this year, I'd say only 15% of them have been at a reasonable time.
256. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


On which island do you live?


St. Lucia but currently based in Trinidad.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Somebody motivate me to blog. Kinda tired of doing it so late at night. 70% of the time, Masters has a new blog just a few hours later, which effectively overshadows maximum potential for hits.

Out of all the blogs I've written this year, I'd say only 15% of them have been at a reasonable time.


Cory have you tried formatting ahead..that might help..just a thought.. :)
Quoting pcola57:


Cory have you tried formatting ahead..that might help..just a thought.. :)


I've considered it. Not sure it'd really work out in the end though.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've considered it.


Cool..it was just a thought..it helped me out tremendously in getting me motivated as I can then begin mentally breaking it down into parts before starting..
I'm on another blog site and works for me very well..
It may not work for you..
It was just a suggestion my friend.. :)
Quoting Barkeep1967:
100's of record lows across the central US on Oct 7th and 8th. No mention but hey Sept was the 23rd warmest lol. GW is a real problem but propaganda and irresponsible journalism pisses me off. Report the whole story not the side you want the Lemmings to follow please.



No mention?
"The first week of October has been one of the coldest weeks of the year, relative to average, with record cold lows outpacing record warm highs by a ratio of four-to-one in the contiguous U.S. However, next week will be warmer than average for the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that October 2012 will rank in the coldest one-third of Octobers on record."

Reading is fundamental?
00Z moves the center in the Eastern Carib then northward along the islands.
African Continent slowing down..

Quoting pcola57:


Cool..it was just a thought..it helped me out tremendously in getting me motivated as I can then begin mentally breaking it down into parts before starting..
I'm on another blog site and works for me very well..
It may not work for you..
It was just a suggestion my friend.. :)


Nah, I appreciate the suggestion.
GFS and NOGAPS have shifted west a little bit.

Here is the NOGAPS. It shows a better organized and more symmetric system over the N Antilles.

Link
97L hot tower..
Quoting wxmod:
This is a satellite photo of a large ship via MODIS Terra satellite. The image has a resolution of 250 meters. And the ship itself covers ten or fifteen pixels. It's a BIG ship. Date 10-9-12



Your a ship fanatic, congrats on that :-)
Olivia on TRMM.
Quoting Skyepony:
97L hot tower..

wow that's shooting up very high.
Prapiroon
97L
A friend on irc posted this link tonight. I found it fascinating. It's a mechanical heat exchanger with a VERY familiar shape and function. :)

Fresh OSCAT of 98L
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
A friend on irc posted this link tonight. I found it fascinating. It's a mechanical heat exchanger with a VERY familiar shape and function. :)



Very cool indeed..I know of a company that may be interested in this..thanks SherwoodSpirit
Quoting Skyepony:
97L


Hey Skye..
I know I may sound stupid but what are the barbs that are purple represent?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF THE DAYS
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE LATER TODAY...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting Patrap:
People follow JB still?




A lot more than you.
The East coast of Australia from Victoria all the way up to mid coastal Queensland is in for a very bumpy few days ahead. A strong cold front is currently moving through Victoria and Southern New South Wales. A Very strong east coast low is starting to form of the South coast of New South Wales and will continue to intensify and could get as strong as 980mb and pack wind around 45kts. This "super" low will bring snow to Tasmania down to as low as 1900ft, in Victoria down to 2600ft and NSW down to 3600ft which mean there will be snow possible from the NSW/Victoria boarder all the way up the Great Dividing Range and into southern Qld. Rainfall is expected to be up to 3.94in in 24hrs with higher falls possible.

Qld will also get a strong band of thunderstorms which could bring 60mph winds, large hail and possible high rainfall rates which could cause flash flooding.



East Coast low on the horizon

Intense rain and thunderstorms heading to QLD and NSW

Current Bureau of Meteorology Warnings.
Severe Weather Warning

FLOOD WATCH

Coastal Waters Wind Warning

Quoting pcola57:


Hey Skye..
I know I may sound stupid but what are the barbs that are purple represent?


Never mind..Figured it out..thanks anyway.. :)
From the San Juan NWS this morning.

THEREAFTER...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THERE IS STILL A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND EVEN MORE SO ABOUT WHERE IT WOULD EVENTUALLY
TRACK IF IT DOES DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGHT MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND CLOSER TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT MORE OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AT THIS POINT...IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS...IF
ANY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED.
283. SLU
sigh

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
98L is up to 30%...slowly getting there.
98L...



97E gets a 20% yellow circle.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
287. SLU
10/0545 UTC 9.3N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
10/0545 UTC 25.7N 72.5W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic

I wonder why 97L was dropped from the TWO.
The GFS is trending stronger with the amount of instability on Saturday. Still hesitant to call it "major" this far out, but it's looking like it could be a big day for sure.

98=wet one
06z GFS remains very consistent that 98L will develop into Tropical Storm Patty.
follow jb not me remember early springs summer forecast wrong again anyway he thinks he is so good at that now he pushes his political agendas too. its about the money
06z GFS @ 108 hours:



168:



216:



252:

Quoting CybrTeddy:
06z GFS remains very consistent that 98L will develop into Tropical Storm Patty.

Wont be long before we start getting very wet here at 11n 61w.
Looks to be a big 'wetter' !
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-102100 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
500 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FOG IMPACT...
PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF FOG FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH...IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS FOG
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE
FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES WHEN TRAVELING IN FOGGY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...FOG IMPACT...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN DURING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER WISE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

09/RKR



Quoting Grothar:



Grothar, is there a current run for today, 10/10?
Quoting Grothar:



Gro, you are supposed to paint the paper, not the sky.
the ne shear is not as strong over 98L as previously which is now allowing arial increase in cloud coverage. the system looks to be getting more organised and is quite possible that it is near depression stage
Quoting Grothar:



Pretty wide spread
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gro, you are supposed to paint the paper, not the sky.


Hit refresh you twit! I posted a very important model track. :)
Quoting WarEagle8:

Grothar, is there a current run for today, 10/10?


They haven't posted models for the past 12 hours. I don't know that is wrong. I'm still looking. I'm currently on my 7th cup of coffee. I should be in full gear in about an hour.
Quoting Barkeep1967:
100's of record lows across the central US on Oct 7th and 8th. No mention but hey Sept was the 23rd warmest lol. GW is a real problem but propaganda and irresponsible journalism pisses me off. Report the whole story not the side you want the Lemmings to follow please.

Exactly. Love the avatar. Go Salukis!
Nothing but a big mess. Its a fish storm. Not worth tracking.

UP TO 30% NOW.................................
Quoting Grothar:
Nothing but a big mess. Its a fish storm. Not worth tracking.



I'm sorry, I don't agree with the fish storm statement. Models have changed.
I don't see with 98L being that low and that far west how it can miss the Islands.
Quoting CaribBoy:


I'm sorry, I don't agree with the fish storm statement. Models have changed.


I just think it is boring, boring, boring.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Exactly.


Yeah, nobody reports how October has three times more cold records than hot ones... oh, wait. Line 6 in Dr. Masters blog says what?
Gro is right..gfs has it as a fish storm as well..........
Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't see with 98L being that low and that far west how it can miss the Islands.


I agree. I think it is going to slam right into the islands. Especially the Northern Islands.
Quoting Grothar:


I agree. I think it is going to slam right into the islands. Especially the Northern Islands.
..GFS says no, it turns north before the islands
If anything 98L is moving west now or a little South of due West, just my take.
Quoting LargoFl:
..GFS says no, it turns north before the islands


I know, I was being silly. It's the new meds I'm on.
Quoting Grothar:


I know, I was being silly. It's the new meds I'm on.
LOL share LOL
gfs at 120 hours, comes close to PR as it goes northward...
The FIM9 model, which has performed well this year, has a weak system North of Puerto Rico in 5 days.

Does ex-97L look like it is moving SE?


Link
98L Rainbow Loop


All NOAA FLoater Imagery

327. SLU
Twin of TOMAS?

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
328. 7544
Quoting Grothar:
Does ex-97L look like it is moving SE?


Link


yep and with no meds lol scince last night make do a loop de loop and head back to cuba and then start all over imo
Quoting Grothar:
Does ex-97L look like it is moving SE?


Link


Yeah it does look like its moving SE. Looks like that trough off the east coast is playing tug-o-war with it from the north and that cluster to its southeast is on the other side of the rope.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
the mid level vorticity (500mb) increases at 9N51W, the beginning of something?