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El Niño falters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2012

The progression of oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific towards El Niño has been interrupted by a marked cooling over the past two weeks, and the onset of a full-fledged El Niño event this fall and winter is now in considerable doubt. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific were approximately 0.5°C above average--the threshold for a weak El Niño event--from the beginning of July through mid-September. However, for the past two weeks, these temperatures have fallen to just 0.2°C above average--solidly in the neutral category. In addition, over the past three months, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the Pacific have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño (one exception: some stronger westerly surface winds than usual have developed near New Guinea and Indonesia, which could act to push warm water eastwards towards South America in coming months and tip the ocean more towards El Niño.) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their monthly El Niño discussion, issued October 4, but continued their El Niño watch, giving a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place for the October-November-December period. This is a big reduction from 69% odds given in their September forecast. NOAA's final take on the matter:

Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak. The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

The lack of a progression towards El Niño so far this October means that the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to extend into November, as has been the norm over the past decade. El Niño events tend to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, suppressing hurricane activity. However, the latest 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model shows continued near-average wind shear levels over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic through mid-October. Given the recent faltering of El Niño, I expect that near-average wind shear levels will continue over the tropical Atlantic into November, and that we will see one or two more tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between October 2011 and October 2012 in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific between 5°S - 5°N, 170°W - 120°W (the Niño 3.4 region.) A La Niña episode occurs when SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are 0.5°C cooler than average for an extended period (below the thick blue line.) La Niña conditions were in place between October 2011 - March 2012. El Niño conditions occur when SSTs in the El Niño 3.4 region are more than 0.5°C warmer than average (above the thick red line.) El Niño conditions developed in early July, but have fallen below the threshold for a weak El Niño event over the past two weeks. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Oscar about to meet its Waterloo
Tropical Storm Oscar continues to battle high wind shear, which has exposed the low-level center to view and pushed all of the storm's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's southeast side. Satellite images show a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm is closing in on Oscar, and this front will overtake Oscar Friday night and absorb the storm by Saturday morning. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar. It's looking none too healthy, with the low-level circulation exposed to view, and a cold front to the north beginning to overtake it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. Beginning on Tuesday, we will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda, where the remains of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back on Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting pcola57:


See post #932..
spathy asked the blog if anyone knew of a storm originating in the same area as 97L..
I looked around and thought Hurricaine Kate was the closest..
What's your take on it?

I think it's a long shot as far as intensity goes for 97L to be like Kate. But a track in the general vicinity of Kate's might be plausible. I don't think it will veer SW though.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lolol.Well is cool and mysterious.Buuut my computer has crashed so all my other avatars I can't pick them that we're downloaded.
Don`t want to intrude but is that a character of a tv show?
1003. spathy
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Fingers? You talkin' bout fingers? I smashed my thumb last Saturday while going diving... In between to tanks.. I won't tell you the words I said, BUT it still hurts and I think I will lose my nail... So much for looking beautiful... But I will only have to pay for 9 nails instead of 10... Practicing up on my Vietnamese.


Where were you diving?
And how was the weather and currents?
I am having serious Scuba withdraws.And at this rate,I will have to retake the test for a fourth time if I want to go diving again.
Interesting.... Is that the curve of the earth??
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Fingers? You talkin' bout fingers? I smashed my thumb last Saturday while going diving... In between to tanks.. I won't tell you the words I said, BUT it still hurts and I think I will lose my nail... So much for looking beautiful... But I will only have to pay for 9 nails instead of 10... Practicing up on my Vietnamese.
But it was a wonderful dive........ Great visibility....Left from the Lake Park Marina
1006. pcola57
Quoting opal92nwf:

I think it's a long shot as far as intensity goes for 97L to be like Kate. But a track in the general vicinity of Kate's might be plausible. I don't think it will veer SW though.


Yeah I agree with you..it may track simular but that said..it may not have much of a punch if any at all according to the info I've seen ..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Check out 97L.
Is there a difference? or is still doing the same?
1008. spathy
Quoting pcola57:


Yeah I agree with you..it may track simular but that said..it may not have much of a punch if any at all according to the info I've seen ..


I havent looked at the recent models for 97 but So far it doesnt look like a stall SW of Cuba.

That would be bad.

Not downplaying any possible effect on Central America,all that is considered into things as well.
DOLPHINS WON....YEAH....TILL NEXT WEEK
Quoting spathy:


Where were you diving?
And how was the weather and currents?
I am having serious Scuba withdraws.And at this rate,I will have to retake the test for a fourth time if I want to go diving again.
Spathy.......Where are you... Usually I go out of Lake Park Marina in Palm Beach county, but try to make it to Key Largo at least once a month
1011. pcola57
Quoting spathy:


I havent looked at the recent models for 97 but So far it doesnt look like a stall SW of Cuba.

That would be bad.

Not downplaying any possible effect on Central America,all that is considered into things as well.


Your right ..consider all things..
I gotta run off for awhile but I just want to tell you that your avatar picture shows a most amazing tree..very cool.. :)
'till later
Quoting Tazmanian:



Your a little late. It's been there a about a week now

I'm aware it's been around for a while. I'm just posting the latest satellite image of it.
Do we have ongoing solar flares???
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT OLIVIA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE NOW A LITTLE LARGER AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER NEAR THE
CENTER. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT IMPROVED STRUCTURE...A BLEND OF THE
LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS
SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT.

OLIVIA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. AFTER
THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK.
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA
BEGINNING TO TILT NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...
AND BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AGAIN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF OLIVIA HAS EITHER JUMPED OR REFORMED TO THE NORTH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
340/5. DESPITE THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES
TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW CYCLONE TURNING
WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION....AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.2N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.9N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 17.0N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 16.3N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


The Storm Prediction Center will be changing the categories used to create their convective outlooks in 2013. I made a chart to show the revisions. You will note that "See Text" is gone and "Thunder", "Marginal", and "Enhanced" have been added. A 15% tornado probability on a Day 1 outlook is no longer a Moderate risk. You'll probably find some changes as well.

At the 18z TAFB Surface Analysis,the wave with low looks well alive with low going down in pressure in 24 hours.

What happened to NOAA's MJO page? They haven't updated the page since Thursday.
1018. txjac
Hmmmm ...an explanation for Britan's rains?

Link

So THAT'S why we've been getting so much rain! Scientists find 'atmospheric rivers' in the sky which hit Britain with 1,000 times more water than the Thames Giant ribbons of moist air flowing north from the tropics bring heavy rain
Some 'rivers' carry as much water as the Amazon

Ribbons blamed for worst 10 winter floods to hit Britain since 1970
Researchers say they are also linked to the country's recent wet summers


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2214192/Sc ientists-atmospheric-rivers-sky-hit-Britain-1-000- times-water-Thames.html#ixzz28eJkwpYe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Weather doesn't look too bad at CCAFS for launch of SpaceX's Dragon capsule tonight. Everything's dissipating as it approaches the cape. ~L-3 hours.


1020. spathy
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Spathy.......Where are you... Usually I go out of Lake Park Marina in Palm Beach county, but try to make it to Key Largo at leat once a month


I am in the SW Fl FT Myers area so The Gulf is Not My cup O tea.
Largo is pref.
But economics has reduced that level of expendable expense.
Fishing has replaced it.
But its all good. Fishing has been great :O)
1021. spathy
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Weather doesn't look too bad at CCAFS for launch of SpaceX's Dragon capsule tonight. Everything's dissipating as it approaches the cape. ~L-3 hours.




I hope it clears out between Me and there.
I love watching the launches,even from this far off.
1022. spathy
Quoting pcola57:


Your right ..consider all things..
I gotta run off for awhile but I just want to tell you that your avatar picture shows a most amazing tree..very cool.. :)
'till later


Thanks.
If it was registered it surely would be a state Champion Avocado tree. No doubt about it.
1023. spathy
Quoting txjac:
Hmmmm ...an explanation for Britan's rains?

Link

So THAT'S why we've been getting so much rain! Scientists find 'atmospheric rivers' in the sky which hit Britain with 1,000 times more water than the Thames Giant ribbons of moist air flowing north from the tropics bring heavy rain
Some 'rivers' carry as much water as the Amazon

Ribbons blamed for worst 10 winter floods to hit Britain since 1970
Researchers say they are also linked to the country's recent wet summers


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2214192/Sc ientists-atmospheric-rivers-sky-hit-Britain-1-000- times-water-Thames.html#ixzz28eJkwpYe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


Is this phenomenon,combined with a cool phase,what caused the great Potato famine?
LIVE updating webcam of Falcon 9. Fueling has started.


During the days of the Saturn, engineers at the launch pad would remark that during fueling the rocket would contract and expand, as if it was alive, breathing and waiting to roar.

The Falcon 9 will within the next 4 years have the honor of sending a man in space with the Dragon capsule that is currently perched on top. Right now it's unmanned, but it is designed to carry men and women and will carry the fire of America's space program.
Quoting spathy:


I am in the SW Fl FT Myers area so The Gulf is Not My cup O tea.
Largo is pref.
But economics has reduced that level of expendable expense.
Fishing has replaced it.
But its all good. Fishing has been great :O)
Used to go to Matlacha and Pine Island years ago... Little fishing but lot's of partying... Have you been to Bert's?
1026. spathy
Looks like the storms have decided to pop up in my neck O the woods.
Not raining yet but its booming on my doorstep.

Prapiroon looks good:

Quoting spathy:


I am in the SW Fl FT Myers area so The Gulf is Not My cup O tea.
Largo is pref.
But economics has reduced that level of expendable expense.
Fishing has replaced it.
But its all good. Fishing has been great :O)
Not very good visibility in the gulf area.... But I really do like the Ft. Myers area. But it gets so freekin' hot compared to the east coast.
1029. spathy
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Used to go to Matlacha and Pine Island years ago... Little fishing but lot's of partying... Have you been to Bert's?


I have not been to Berts. That is unless its been so many years I cant remember. Or it was such a good time LOL.
SFN has a live video feed up now.
A historic night for the US space program. This represents that we no longer have to rely on the Europeans and the Russians to supply a space station that 60-70% is paid for by us. Next step is manned flights. SpaceX wants it by 2015.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Prapiroon looks good:


Yeah, it's organizing pretty quickly.
1032. VR46L
Quoting txjac:
Hmmmm ...an explanation for Britan's rains?

Link

So THAT'S why we've been getting so much rain! Scientists find 'atmospheric rivers' in the sky which hit Britain with 1,000 times more water than the Thames Giant ribbons of moist air flowing north from the tropics bring heavy rain
Some 'rivers' carry as much water as the Amazon

Ribbons blamed for worst 10 winter floods to hit Britain since 1970
Researchers say they are also linked to the country's recent wet summers


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2214192/Sc ientists-atmospheric-rivers-sky-hit-Britain-1-000- times-water-Thames.html#ixzz28eJkwpYe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


Interesting piece but I will be checking other sources on it unfortunately the mail is considered a tabloid newspaper..
1034. VR46L
Quoting spathy:


Is this phenomenon,combined with a cool phase,what caused the great Potato famine?


The great Potato famine , I could write an essay on it yes the potato crop failed due to blight Link but the tragedy of the great potato famine in Ireland was more political and socio-economic reasons .
The native Irish lost their land over a 200 year period when UK planters took their land and leased it back to them at a high rate and the only thing they could afford to grow was the potato so when the potato failed there simply was no food..
Yes a humid wet summer causes blight but it was an overdependence on the potato that was the main reason for the famine

1035. Dakster
Quoting CybrTeddy:
LIVE updating webcam of Falcon 9. Fueling has started.


During the days of the Saturn, engineers at the launch pad would remark that during fueling the rocket would contract and expand, as if it was alive, breathing and waiting to roar.

The Falcon 9 will within the next 4 years have the honor of sending a man in space with the Dragon capsule that is currently perched on top. Right now it's unmanned, but it is designed to carry men and women and will carry the fire of America's space program.


I can hardly wait...

Would be nice if in my lifetime we could send a person to Mars!
Quoting Dakster:


I can hardly wait...

Would be nice if in my lifetime we could send a person to Mars!





We could! We just couldn't get 'em back.
1037. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


I can hardly wait...

Would be nice if in my lifetime we could send a person to Mars!


Yes, it would be. I know of a few people I would like to send.
1038. LargoFl
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SFN has a live video feed up now.
A historic night for the US space program. This represents that we no longer have to rely on the Europeans and the Russians to supply a space station that 60-70% is paid for by us. Next step is manned flights. SpaceX wants it by 2015.
teddy i watched a special on Mars..and 2020 they are sending a rover with deep drilling capabilities, they are thinking there is bacteria..LIFE..in the water trapped underground..as it is on earth..IF..they find the bacteria..out the window goes WE are alone in this universe...amazing show it was, history channel2 i think it was..this amazing universe
1039. LargoFl
Looking towards tampa and north, those clouds are reaching for the sky, going to be some severe warnings over there..........
1040. txjac
Quoting VR46L:


Interesting piece but I will be checking other sources on it unfortunately the mail is considered a tabloid newspaper..


I agree ...dont always believe what I read on the mail ...however they have some interesting articles. Some of the stuff that I read there makes me go hmmmm ...always check other sites though
1041. LargoFl
1042. txjac
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SFN has a live video feed up now.
A historic night for the US space program. This represents that we no longer have to rely on the Europeans and the Russians to supply a space station that 60-70% is paid for by us. Next step is manned flights. SpaceX wants it by 2015.


Thanks for the link cyberTeddy
1043. LargoFl
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS BEACH...
SANIBEL

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 158 AND 161.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
As a weak short wave approaches Florida tonight, expect a possible boost in thunderstorms near the coast along Tampa Bay as a possible boundary collision will provide the lift need to tap into the weak upper energy.
1045. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:
As a weak short wave approaches Florida tonight, expect a possible boost in thunderstorms near the coast along Tampa Bay as a possible boundary collision will provide the lift need to tap into the weak upper energy.
Jed if you look a lil north of tampa..you can see the clouds building upwards..going to be alot of boomers in a lil while if they move this way..so far so good by me..no rain at all today
1046. VR46L
Quoting txjac:


I agree ...dont always believe what I read on the mail ...however they have some interesting articles. Some of the stuff that I read there makes me go hmmmm ...always check other sites though


Their gossip section is hilarious !!! but not a leading science paper lol.
1047. LargoFl
1048. LargoFl
whew..Ft Meyers are getting hit pretty good rain wise.......
1049. Dakster
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





We could! We just couldn't get 'em back.


I still fail to see this as a problem...

And Grothar -- behave...
1050. atris
97l looks to be troubled in funktop loop ..

Link
1051. LargoFl
Quoting atris:
97l looks to be troubled in funktop loop ..

Link
winds are going to be unfavorable for anything to develop there
97L:

1053. LargoFl
Quoting Dakster:


I still fail to see this as a problem...

And Grothar -- behave...
i wonder..IF they did send a guy there..AND..he somehow came back..would he then be..the Man from Mars?
1054. LargoFl
......see..97 doesnt stand a chance, getting sheared by the upper winds, blowing it back into the atlantic
18z GFS 180 hours shows some lower pressures in the southern/eastern Caribbean, we'll see if it develops:

204 hours:

1057. LargoFl
10 days:

264:


Quoting LargoFl:
......see..97 doesnt stand a chance, getting sheared by the upper winds, blowing it back into the atlantic


And look at the wave in Eastern Atlantic.
1061. atris
Quoting LargoFl:
winds are going to be unfavorable for anything to develop there


It appears to have lost most of its convection at the moment.. the shear is not bad, but as it moves north it will encounter a lot of shear, the key I believe is how soon if ever it will develop and it could be running out of time .
1062. LargoFl
Quoting txjac:
Hmmmm ...an explanation for Britan's rains?

Link

So THAT'S why we've been getting so much rain! Scientists find 'atmospheric rivers' in the sky which hit Britain with 1,000 times more water than the Thames Giant ribbons of moist air flowing north from the tropics bring heavy rain
Some 'rivers' carry as much water as the Amazon

Ribbons blamed for worst 10 winter floods to hit Britain since 1970
Researchers say they are also linked to the country's recent wet summers


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2214192/Sc ientists-atmospheric-rivers-sky-hit-Britain-1-000- times-water-Thames.html#ixzz28eJkwpYe
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


As far as the wet summers I think the big pic is being missed here. There is no polar variably during the summer anymore with the cold anchored on Greenland & the little ice left. Here's a graph generated from 6-1-2012 til 10-7-2012, the height anomalies. High over the cold with a "river" of lower pressure, moisture & rain in a circle around that. South of that pretty dry..


During the winter the new normal seems the opposite with the polar low spilling all over as it can't maintain it self up there with all the heat & water.
1064. LargoFl
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And look at the wave in Eastern Atlantic.
yes watching that one coming in lower,missing that eastbound winds thats keeping 97 from ever developing..next weekend might get interesting if that wave survives the trip.
300:


This run seems a little odd to me...

What a day at work...Sunday's are the worse...oh well, a looksie at 97L...

1068. txjac
Quoting Skyepony:


As far as the wet summers I think the big pic is being missed here. There is no polar variably during the summer anymore with the cold anchored on Greenland & the little ice left. Here's a graph generated from 6-1-2012 til 10-7-2012, the height anomalies. High over the cold with a "river" of lower pressure, moisture & rain in a circle around that. South of that pretty dry..


During the winter the new normal seems the opposite with the polar low spilling all over as it can't maintain it self up there with all the heat & water.



Thanks for the info Skye
1070. txjac
Spacex launch

Will they illuminate the area or will we be watching the launch in the dark?
Pad lights are up on the Falcon.
End of the 18z run:

Quoting PensacolaDoug:





We could! We just couldn't get 'em back.
Wasn't that a Twilight Zone episode?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What a day at work...Sunday's are the worse...oh well, a looksie at 97L...

Geoff........ I'm sure I would know where you work...Can you give me a hint?
Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings

Frost warning
Widespread frost tonight.

Expect widespread frost to develop tonight as temperatures fall to or just below the freezing mark under clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will slowly climb above zero after sunrise on Monday.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
End of the 18z run:



Why you say the 18z GFS run is odd?
1078. Dakster
Quoting LargoFl:
i wonder..IF they did send a guy there..AND..he somehow came back..would he then be..the Man from Mars?


What if they sent a man and women and they had a child born on mars and the child came back... Would that make the child a Martian?
NASA TV coverage is starting!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Geoff........ I'm sure I would know where you work...Can you give me a hint?


Palm Beach Kennel Club. Customer Service Manager, Player's Club Card Manager, Track Handicapper, Track Publicist. Sunday's I do a four-hour internet show.
Quoting Dakster:


What if they sent a man and women and they had a child born on mars and the child came back... Would that make the child a Martian?
And could the child vote?
1082. LargoFl
Quoting Dakster:


What if they sent a man and women and they had a child born on mars and the child came back... Would that make the child a Martian?
Excellent question, and looking at how they determine origin on birth certificates..i guess the newborn truly would be..martian..an amazing century the next one will be huh
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
And could the child vote?


how about running for president
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Palm Beach Kennel Club. Customer Service Manager, Player's Club Card Manager, Track Handicapper, Track Publicist. Sunday's I do a four-hour internet show.
Very cool.... I have lived in PBC for 30 years and only have been there 3 times..... My logic for betting on the dog was watching which one went #2 before running.... Much lighter then, Wasn't very good logic though
LOL AT THE 18Z RUN. LOL THE GFS IS DRUNK, THERE IS NO DOUBT.
1086. LargoFl
...........yep..GFS at 384 hours, something indeed down there
1087. DFWjc
Quoting LargoFl:
Excellent question, and looking at how they determine origin on birth certificates..i guess the newborn truly would be..martian..an amazing century the next one will be huh


It would probably be the same rules if a serviceman's wife or a service woman had a baby on a base...dual citizenship.
Quoting LargoFl:
...........yep..GFS at 384 hours, something indeed down there


That develops from wave now in East Atlantic.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Very cool.... I have lived in PBC for 30 years and only have been there 3 times..... My logic for betting on the dog was watching which one went #2 before running.... Much lighter then, Wasn't very good logic though


Lol...I hear that a lot.
THOUGH CARIBBOY STILL NEEDS RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!! EVERYTHING FOR GUADELOUPE AGAIN, 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN THERE THIS PM. 5 INCHES!!!!!!!!!!!! HERE WE JUST GOT A LITTLE DROP, WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE EXTREM NORTHERN LEEWARDS!! Lol
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lol...I hear that a lot.
So it's not true? If I remember smoking was allowed ...I can't handle that... Is it still allowed?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
So it's not true? If I remember smoking was allowed ...I can't handle that... Is it still allowed?


Not inside the building. Only outside. Did you know there is an item on the election ballot to allow slot machines at the track?
the key to saving earth is mars
anyone that wants to go
gets a one way ticket to mars
the largest terra forming project
of all time

if you go there you die there
and build the way for the ones to follow

now we just got to come up with a mass transport sytem for the move and install some very large bio-domes for housing and business

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Not inside the building. Only outside. Did you know there is an item on the election ballot to allow slot machines at the track?
Yes..... I heard that. I do like to play slots.. I go south to the casino's sometimes
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Why you say the 18z GFS run is odd?


because it suddenly lost or delayed the east conus trough
The 18z GFS shows "Patty", "Rafael", and a developing "Sandy" by 16 days out.
1100. LargoFl
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the key to saving earth is mars
anyone that wants to go
gets a one way ticket to mars
the largest terra forming project
of all time

if you go there you die there
and build the way for the ones to follow

now we just got to come up with a mass transport sytem for the move and install some very large bio-domes for housing and business

dont laugh..so rich guy is probably thinking how much he should charge for rent up there..some things never change
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18z GFS shows "Patty", "Rafael", "Sany", and a developing "Tony" within 16 days.
can you show me the link please.
1102. LargoFl
Quoting DFWjc:


It would probably be the same rules if a serviceman's wife or a service woman had a baby on a base...dual citizenship.
..i can just hear it now..hello there..can i see your birth certificate..OH..this cannot be right...LMAO
I know what happens when epac storms like these are too far south to turn..

Quoting allancalderini:
can you show me the link please.


Here is the link to the 18z, here.
Quoting allancalderini:
can you show me the link please.

#1098.

Also, I revised my comment because the tropical cyclone in the West Caribbean at the end of the run is Patty. I thought it was a different storm.
1107. wxmod
If somebody tells you go to the coast and breathe fresh air, forget it! Ship smog in the North Pacific today. MODIS satellite photo.

Quoting allancalderini:
can you show me the link please.


Link.
Quoting allancalderini:
can you show me the link please.




No need for a link. This read back on the blog page and you see the mode run some of the blogger have been posting
1110. LargoFl
.........................just walked the dogs..there is a beautiful cool breeze outside now
Bye to 97L as is down to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
1112. LargoFl
Quoting Civicane49:

Patty is right over the high TCHP values, things could get pretty active.
1115. LargoFl
Quoting wxchaser97:

Patty is right over the high TCHP values, things could get pretty active.


Agreed.

Quoting LargoFl:
.........................just walked the dogs..there is a beautiful cool breeze outside now

Also looks like something blew up on that map, obviously an error though.
1118. LargoFl
Gorgeous view of the Falcon 9 on the pad. Chances of weather violation down to 20%.
1120. LargoFl
Quoting wxchaser97:

Also looks like something blew up on that map, obviously an error though.
yes i saw that..puter glitch when they printed it i guess
1122. LargoFl
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Gorgeous view of the Falcon 9 on the pad. Chances of weather violation down to 20%.
overcast here now wont be able to see it..grrrrr
1123. LargoFl
Quoting wxchaser97:

Patty is right over the high TCHP values, things could get pretty active.


Rocket Fuel! And this is next week?
8 PM discussion of wave.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N32W TO 9N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE WHERE A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
31W-33W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 30W-33W.
1126. bappit
Prapiroon sounds like a drug brand. I'd hate to hear the list of side effects.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Why you say the 18z GFS run is odd?

The storm doesn't follow a normal pattern... The last few frames where it intensifies in the Caribbean seem logical but before that the whole development north of the Caribbean then cross Cuba into the Caribbean is strange... it's not impossible, but I find it unlikely.
1128. LargoFl
they really are..planning to colonize Mars in the future..just scan all the mars articles on the web..................Don't Expect Mars Fossils to Be Familiar

Based on this theory, it's possible future robotic landers could find Martian fossils in deposits along exposed crater walls or surface fractures in the northern plains.

Even more tantalizing, the fractured basins, such as those seen near the north pole, are widespread across Mars, opening up a variety of sites where past slow-growing oceans—and potential fossils—may exist.

For example, NASA has yet to pick a landing site for the next big mission to the red planet, the Mars Science Laboratory. But one of the candidate sites, Mawrth Vallis, fits with the new study's ocean-formation model.

Overall, Rodriguez and colleagues "have put together an idea that ties together numerous diverse, otherwise anomalous phenomena—and one that's certainly a worthy idea to bring into the mix," said Victor Baker, a planetary scientist and geoscientist at the University of Arizona in Tucson who was not involved with the research.

Baker also agrees that Martian groundwater had the potential to support life.

"There are subsurface environments on Mars, even today, which are undoubtedly not much different chemically, or [in terms of] temperatures and pressures, to subsurface environments on Earth that have life in them," he said.

But when dreaming of Martian fossils, Baker cautioned, don't expect to find the kinds most familiar to us on Earth.

"Whatever is an indication of previous activities of living organisms can be a fossil. It doesn't have to be bones. It can be traces. It could be evidence of chemistry that one can tie back to a biological process," he said.

"To expect that Mars would have achieved something like the Cambrian explosion"—Earth's most intense burst of evolution—"would really be stretching it," he added.

"But to expect that Mars might have [microorganisms] similar to what was characteristic life for most of Earth's very early history is not too great of a stretch."
I'm sticking with today's 00z, 06z, and 12z runs. Ain't no way that massive east conus trough magically vanishes.

There's a reason why the 6z and 18z runs are less reliable then their 00z and 12z cousins!

BTW, here is the NAO PNA forecast...

1130. wxmod
October 6th arctic sea ice anomaly is hanging at rock bottom. Compare it to the sharp dip of 2007. The arctic still looks open to shipping, all the way around.

Olivia is looking good. Probably getting close to becoming a hurricane.
1132. DFWjc
Quoting LargoFl:
..i can just hear it now..hello there..can i see your birth certificate..OH..this cannot be right...LMAO


what would you call it...the a martian birther issue? BWHAHAHA
1133. Patrap
The Sun is up on a developing typhoon in the West Pacific:

Tropical Storm Olivia:

Quoting wxchaser97:



Here is the link to the 18z, here.
Quoting Civicane49:


Link.
Thanks both of you Patty might become the 2 major if conditions allow it.
1137. Patrap
NASA Live


'Everything is Looking Real Good for Launch'
Sun, 07 Oct 2012 06:42:31 PM CDT

The weather forecast for tonight's liftoff has improved to an 80 percent chance of acceptable conditions at the 8:35 p.m. EDT launch time. There are no technical problems with the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket nor with the Dragon capsule loaded with cargo bound for the International Space Station. "Everything is looking real good for launch this evening," NASA Launch Commentator Mike Curie said. The rocket is to launch from Space launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla., which is adjacent to NASA's Kennedy Space Center.



1139. txjac
I fear you will all have to tell me about the lift off ...my daughter decided tonight is the night that I must meet her new boyfriend. Bites as I have been watching for last two hours.

Enjoy it for me guys and tell me all about it when I get back!

You know, as I type this I realize that I come her more for the companionship than I do the weather ...thanks guys for always making me feel welcomed and for the entertainment!
1140. bappit
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Not inside the building. Only outside. Did you know there is an item on the election ballot to allow slot machines at the track?

Once upon an eon, Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge was a beautiful place to watch football on Saturday nights. Games didn't start until 8 PM and there were no cable broadcasts with interminable commercial breaks. With that start time and stable cool air masses wafting in each fall, the bourbon fumes and cigarette smoke remained in situ. Games through the core of the SEC schedule often were observed through a haze. I think they've since banned smoking inside the stadium which is good. They have also cut down on drunkenness and fights, but ahhh, to be six years old running through the crowd again.
1141. ncstorm
Intense lightening associated with these storms today and funnel clouds with damage to some of the areas..

Little known fact is they've pumped the F9 up with kerosene and Liquid Oxygen, same fuel used on the Saturn V, so the flame is similar in color and intensity.
Quoting ncstorm:
Intense lightening associated with these storms today and funnel clouds with damage to some of the areas..


It hailed forever here. The lightning was really bad...and still is. When a lightning strikes the ground and doesn't lift up for 5 seconds, you know there's a lot of instability. :P
1144. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It hailed forever here. The lightning was really bad...and still is. When a lightning strikes the ground and doesn't lift up for 5 seconds, you know there's a lot of instability. :P


I havent been online today but the bottom fell out while I was in town..WWAY said funnel clouds were reported in Leland with some damage over there today..and its still storming off and on..
1145. Patrap
Not near as awesome though..

: )



All systems go.
The only thing that gets me as excited as a hurricane is a good space launch!!! Godspeed Falcon/Dragon!!
GFS 372 hrs. is this one of those times where the GFS suffers from convective feedback? I mean the 2 systems in the Caribbean are in the same envelope of low pressure. I still favor Western Caribbean for development because it's a climitalogically favored spot for development during the month of October.

Current Eumetsat image Central Atl'

what does everyone think the chances of patty potentialy forming in the nw caribean and going north into the gulf of mexico.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Gorgeous view of the Falcon 9 on the pad. Chances of weather violation down to 20%.
It's beautiful and eventually I want to go see one of these launches.
spacex it was not bad cloudy e cen florida
The launch was successful :)
would of gotten political if it failed. glad it seems like a success
How long does it take to join up with the ISS?
1156. etxwx
Those nighttime launches are spectacular, aren't they? I grew up watching everything from Mercury to Apollo and the Shuttles. It's exciting to see a launch again.
what are the chances of this happening i know its long range so chnaces are probably low.
1158. Dakster
Looking good for spacex. Will be even better when they transport people.
Olivia still has a chance to make it to a hurricane
It seems rather early for the season to be over already. Nothing in the Atlantic anywhere. If not for never ending Nadine it would have been over sooner?
What force would cause the Global Conveyer Belt to reverse itself???
1162. Grothar
It not over Did you see the 18Z GFS!!
Quoting Autistic2:
It seems rather early for the season to be over already. Nothing in the Atlantic anywhere. If not for never ending Nadine it would have been over sooner?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 8 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (985 hPa) located at 17.8N 135.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.6N 132.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.6N 131.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 18.4N 130.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting Autistic2:
It seems rather early for the season to be over already. Nothing in the Atlantic anywhere. If not for never ending Nadine it would have been over sooner?

The season is most likely not over, we still got time for another storm. GFS has been indicating that conditions will be favorable for a storm to form.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It not over Did you see the 18Z GFS!!


I thought it was the GFS that had that feedback problem?
1170. ncstorm
Courtesy of WWAY TV3..funnel cloud in Leland, NC today..

Quoting Autistic2:


I thought it was the GFS that had that feedback problem?
It has done pretty well this season with the upgrade it have.
1172. Grothar
Quoting weatherbro:
What force would cause the Global Conveyer Belt to reverse itself???


Someone pushing the wrong button.
Quoting weatherbro:
What force would cause the Global Conveyer Belt to reverse itself???


The button beneath forward?
Quoting Slamguitar:
How long does it take to join up with the ISS?
Three days...on Wednesday.
Quoting Slamguitar:
How long does it take to join up with the ISS?


I think 3 days..

The Falcon9 Dragon launch from my neighborhood..



CRS-1 is in orbit

: )

CRS
One of the 18z ensemble members:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
One of the 18z ensemble members:


Most of the ensemble members show a strong tropical storm in the NW Caribbean by Oct 20.
Model error for 97L in nm.

Model 0hr 24hr
Name

FIM9 27.6 23.1
AVNO 23.3 28.7
CMC 65.7 46.2
AEMN 29.9 99.7
AP18 40.7 39.1
NAM 46.5 86.1
GFDT 13.7 114.1
GFDL 14.8 122.7
MRFO 50.5 -
BAMS - 148.6
BAMM - 168.9
BAMD - 221.8
CLP5 - 193.2
CLIP - 202.8





Quoting Skyepony:
Model error for 97L in nm.

Model 0hr 24hr
Name

FIM9 27.6 23.1
AVNO 23.3 28.7
CMC 65.7 46.2
AEMN 29.9 99.7
AP18 40.7 39.1
NAM 46.5 86.1
GFDT 13.7 114.1
GFDL 14.8 122.7
MRFO 50.5 -
BAMS - 148.6
BAMM - 168.9
BAMD - 221.8
CLP5 - 193.2
CLIP - 202.8







Any new ASCAT pass over wave in East Atlantic?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most of the ensemble members show a strong tropical storm in the NW Caribbean by Oct 20.


18 is the only one showing skill.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Any new ASCAT pass over wave in East Atlantic?


ASCAT caught that wave we've been watching. Not quite to 97L yet.

Bolden is talking about launch..I was hoping for Cabana..

Another one had a hurricane north of the Caribbean Islands. I think we should see something develop in the middle of the month.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
One of the 18z ensemble members:


Quoting Grothar:


Someone pushing the wrong button.


that wasn't
the wrong button
was it
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Rocket Fuel! And this is next week?


a reflection would have to come friday in the afternoon just after 2
I want thunder and rain lol
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 120.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 120.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.8N 120.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.3N 121.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.9N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.0N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 120.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Olivia still at 60 mph.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012

...OLIVIA MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 120.9W
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, it would be. I know of a few people I would like to send.


Hey! I am still in the room!

I am writing number 87 of 100 lines on the blackboard.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.

Mars is not a place for me.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.

Tropical Storm Olivia appears to be near peak intensity.
Quoting CaribBoy:
I want thunder and rain lol


what you want and what you get
will be two different things
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE STRUCTURE AND PRECISE LOCATION
OF OLIVIA IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING. THE MOST
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A SOUTHWEST-TO-
NORTHEAST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE RESOLUTION OF THE DATA
DO NOT ALLOW A CLEAR PEEK OF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THIS SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THIS AFTERNOON...AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING OLIVIA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. IN A DAY OR SO...THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS OLIVIA REACHING PEAK INTENSITY VERY
SOON AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC FORECAST
PREDICTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OLIVIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT. THE TROPICAL
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF OLIVIA TO DECREASE.
AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...
IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 16.2N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.8N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 17.3N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.2N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 16.9N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Olivia:

97L:

TRMM pass of Olivia. Quicktime.
Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Storm Olivia:



Oh Olivia, oh Olivia, say, have you met Olivia?
Olivia The Tattooed Lady.
She has eyes that folks adore so,
and a torso even more so.
Olivia, oh Olivia, that encyclo-pidia.
Oh Olivia The Queen of Tattoo.
On her back is The Battle of Waterloo.
Beside it, The Wreck of the Hesperus too.
And proudly above waves the red, white, and blue.
You can learn a lot from Olivia!
Frost warning
Widespread frost tonight.

Expect widespread frost to develop tonight as temperatures fall near or a couple degrees below the zero degree mark under mainly clear or clearing skies and light winds. The mercury may be at or below freezing for several hours tonight and early Monday morning in low lying and frost prone locales.

Temperatures will slowly climb above zero after sunrise tomorrow.

Tender plants should be covered or brought indoors until all threat of frost has passed on Thanksgiving day morning.



Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 PM EDT Sunday 7 October 2012
Condition: Clear
Pressure: 30.12 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 39.9°F
Dewpoint: 37.6°F
Humidity: 91 %
Wind: W 6 mph
Interesting situation with the models, we might have a threat to deal with in the coming weeks per the GFS and ECMWF.
1204. Grothar
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hey! I am still in the room!

I am writing number 87 of 100 lines on the blackboard.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.

Mars is not a place for me.

Never make Grothar angry.

Never make Grothar angry.



Behave or I'll make you read "War & Peace" again.
1205. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Oh Olivia, oh Olivia, say, have you met Olivia?
Olivia The Tattooed Lady.
She has eyes that folks adore so,
and a torso even more so.
Olivia, oh Olivia, that encyclo-pidia.
Oh Olivia The Queen of Tattoo.
On her back is The Battle of Waterloo.
Beside it, The Wreck of the Hesperus too.
And proudly above waves the red, white, and blue.
You can learn a lot from Olivia!


I don't want to be pithy, but isn't that Lydia?
1206. Grothar
1207. Grothar
Quoting Grothar:


I don't want to be pithy, but isn't that Lydia?


Duh...

1209. Patrap
High Flight

Oh! I have slipped the surly bonds of earth
And danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings;
Sunward I've climbed, and joined the tumbling mirth
Of sun-split clouds - and done a hundred things
You have not dreamed of - wheeled and soared and swung
High in the sunlit silence. Hov'ring there
I've chased the shouting wind along, and flung
My eager craft through footless halls of air.
Up, up the long delirious, burning blue,
I've topped the windswept heights with easy grace
Where never lark, or even eagle flew -
And, while with silent lifting mind I've trod
The high untresspassed sanctity of space,
Put out my hand and touched the face of God.


Pilot Officer Gillespie Magee

No 412 squadron, RCAF




Neil Armstrong Burial at Sea

U.S. Navy Lieutenant Commander Paul Nagy, USS Philippine Sea, and Carol Armstrong, wife of Neil Armstrong, commit the cremated remains of Neil Armstrong to sea during a burial at sea service held onboard the USS Philippine Sea (CG 58), Friday, Sept. 14, 2012, in the Atlantic Ocean.

Armstrong, the first man to walk on the moon during the 1969 Apollo 11 mission, died Saturday, Aug. 25. He was 82.


1210. Grothar
The FIM moves a system into the Eastern Caribbean by the 15th. Beware the Idus Octobris.

1211. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting situation with the models, we might have a threat to deal with in the coming weeks per the GFS and ECMWF.


Indeed
Fresh ASCAT of 97L
Quoting Grothar:


Behave or I'll make you read "War & Peace" again.


Reading "War and Peace" again is not so scary. What is scary is that your copy of the book was written in Latin. You know I cannot read Latin.
97L = BUST
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
One of the 18z ensemble members:


Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! if it continues due north then this could be Hurricane King Part 2
1217. EstherD
Quoting Grothar:


I don't want to be pithy, but isn't that Lydia?


OK... Go ahead... Spoil my fun.

I thought Geoff had posted a very clever parody, and I was working on a similar treatment of the last verse, when POOF! I discover that it was only a simple case of mis-remembering. Sigh.

So now I guess I'll have to give up my feeble efforts to be humorous, and go do something more productive with my remaining time on earth.. like doing the dinner dishes.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Sun is up on a developing typhoon in the West Pacific:


I hope next year we see several tropical cyclones that look like this in the Atlantic Basin. It has been a while since we have seen stuff like this in our neck of the woods.
Quoting Civicane49:

Would this mean we could have Patty and Rafael?
1220. Patrap
1221. Patrap

Storms for 2012 Atlantic Basin

Tropical Storm Alberto
Tropical Storm Beryl
Hurricane Chris
Tropical Storm Debby
Hurricane Ernesto
Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Helene
Hurricane Gordon
Hurricane IsaacD
Tropical Storm Joyce
Hurricane Kirk
Hurricane Leslie
Hurricane Michael
Hurricane Nadine
Tropical Storm Oscar

PATTY
RAFAEL
SANDY
TONY
VALERIE
WILLIAM
1222. Patrap
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I just finished a full blog update on the Atlantic, including possible development, the Pacific, and the US weather. Feel free to check it out, enjoy.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I just finished a full blog update on the Atlantic, including possible development, the Pacific, and the US weather. Feel free to check it out, enjoy.


Working on one myself, actually. However, I generally get off work way too late for anyone to be up when I finish. Honestly seems like a waste of time sometimes.

At least I'm off tomorrow.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 AM EDT Monday 8 October 2012
Condition: Clear
Pressure: 30.14 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 37.0°F
Dewpoint: 35.1°F
Humidity: 92 %
Wind: W 6 mph
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL STORM NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 8 2012
========================================

SUBJECT: The tropical storm East of Cagayan has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "NINA"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Nina (Prapiroon) [994 hPa] located at 18.0°N 135.0°E or 1,260 km east of Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-10 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm "Nina" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was estimated 340 km east of Infanta, Quezon (15.0°N, 125.2°E). This will bring occasional light to moderate rains or thunderstorms over Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, CALABARZON and Bicol Region.

Palawan and Visayas will have occasional light to moderate rains or thunderstorms due to the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
12:00 PM JST October 8 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (985 hPa) located at 17.9N 135.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.6N 132.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 17.6N 131.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
69 HRS: 18.4N 130.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting lobdelse81:

Would this mean we could have Patty and Rafael?


Possibly.
Olivia has a nice central dense overcast (CDO).

1230. JLPR2
Neat! Bring on the sloppy tropical system, looking like lots of nice rain for the NE Caribbean.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Working on one myself, actually. However, I generally get off work way too late for anyone to be up when I finish. Honestly seems like a waste of time sometimes.

At least I'm off tomorrow.


For myself...just posted my 127th detailed update of the season so far...I continue shelling mine out every 24 to 48 hrs....

When are they going to fix GOES-E satellite by the way? Is it a goner?
1232. SLU
Quoting JLPR2:
Neat! Bring on the sloppy tropical system, looking like lots of nice rain for the NE Caribbean.



Look at that monster high for mid-October ... wow
Quoting JLPR2:
Neat! Bring on the sloppy tropical system, looking like lots of nice rain for the NE Caribbean.



Yeah,bring the rain as September was well below normal.
I won't take any model runs past 120 hrs very seriously...especially in the 200 or 300 hr range where we go into fantasy land. I guess that far out...the models are reminding us that hurricane season isn't over...but any very specific predictions made by models that far out aren't worth betting in Vegas...
1235. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I won't take any model runs past 120 hrs very seriously...especially in the 200 or 300 hr range where we go into fantasy land. I guess that far out...the models are reminding us that hurricane season isn't over...but any very specific predictions made by models that far out aren't worth betting in Vegas...


I pay attention to it, but not really worried.
To me, if the GFS shows consistency in a time frame bellow 192hrs then it has a good chance of materializing.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Working on one myself, actually. However, I generally get off work way too late for anyone to be up when I finish. Honestly seems like a waste of time sometimes.

At least I'm off tomorrow.

Don't worry...I blog late too...and read yours (as well as other's) blogs...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


For myself...just posted my 127th detailed update of the season so far...I continue shelling mine out every 24 to 48 hrs....

When are they going to fix GOES-E satellite by the way? Is it a goner?


I've been wondering that myself. Really annoying.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 AM EDT Monday 8 October 2012
Condition: Clear
Pressure: 30.14 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 37.0°F
Dewpoint: 35.1°F
Humidity: 92 %
Wind: W 6 mph


Brrr....

The high in San Antonio was 58 today.

Right now it's 53.

It feels like winter.

It will be up in the 80s by Tues.
1239. JLPR2
At 192hrs the GFS shows 2-4 inches of rain over most of the NE Caribbean Islands.



And with this I'm off. Goodnight everyone!
Quoting JLPR2:
Neat! Bring on the sloppy tropical system, looking like lots of nice rain for the NE Caribbean.



XD XD We will need to celebrate that XD XD
Quoting JLPR2:
At 192hrs the GFS shows 2-4 inches of rain over most of the NE Caribbean Islands.



And with this I'm off. Goodnight everyone!
Hope it materealize the rain for here two. I am just happy that for the looks of it my country will have a hard time for being affect directly from a tropical system I mean landfall for directly.
Quoting CaribBoy:


XD XD We will need to celebrate that XD XD

Meanwhile...wanting to see some snow flurries up here in Michigan. Its been cold up here at night...so as a former southerner...I say if its cold it might as well snow (otherwise the cold weather is no fun)....
Really it crawls thru the NE Caribbean. At 240 is when it reaches Puerto Rico as a TD/Weak TS.

Just to let you guys know, there have been 53 named storms in the Atlantic basin since 2010. Out of those, only 7 have hit the US. Even disregarding obscure marine spinups like Shary or Gert, which would have undoubtedly been missed prior to the advent of satellite data, this is a truly remarkable statistic.

And no people, let's not jump on the whole "weather modification" bandwagon. A lack of an immediate explanation does not justify conspiracy theories.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just to let you guys know, there have been 53 named storms in the Atlantic basin since 2010. Out of those, only 7 have hit the US. Even disregarding obscure marine spinups like Shary or Gert, which would have undoubtedly been missed prior to the advent of satellite data, this is a truly remarkable statistic.

And no people, let's not jump on the whole "weather modification" bandwagon. A lack of an immediate explanation does not justify conspiracy theories.

At least the Atlantic is not as active as the always crazy W-pac typhoon season...is it? How many W-pac typhoons since 2010?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Meanwhile...wanting to see some snow flurries up here in Michigan. Its been cold up here at night...so as a former southerner...I say if its cold it might as well snow (otherwise the cold weather is no fun)....


Hey, i'm a southerner too!

Bring on the snow! And the no-school announcements!
Quoting JLPR2:
At 192hrs the GFS shows 2-4 inches of rain over most of the NE Caribbean Islands.



And with this I'm off. Goodnight everyone!
Thanks. That's interesting. Not just for the Caribbean. I'm lookin' at the bullseye of moisture in the U.S. middle. May be some potential severe next weekend. 192 hrs is kinda slower than that. More like a week from Monday. Thanks again.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Hey, i'm a southerner too!

Bring on the snow! And the no-school announcements!

That don't work up here...had to learn to drive in the snow...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

At least the Atlantic is not as active as the always crazy W-pac typhoon season...is it? How many W-pac typhoons since 2010?


West Pacific barely wins at 56. No doubt, the comparable activity is due to the remarkably inactive typhoon season of 2010, where only 14 named storms developed.
Quoting Civicane49:
Pretty much dead.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Another late night blog update...
thanks for the update which do you think will be the last name used in this list?
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting allancalderini:
Pretty much dead.


Yep.
Quoting allancalderini:
thanks for the update which do you think will be the last name used in this list?


'Rafael' for the Atlantic, 'Rosa' for the Pacific.
No change in wind speed for both 97L and Olivia from ATCF, but one millibar up for both.

AL, 97, 2012100806, , BEST, 0, 231N, 730W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ,

EP, 15, 2012100806, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1209W, 50, 999, TS, 34, NEQ,
Eastern Atlantic:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 8 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (980 hPa) located at 18.0N 135.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.9N 132.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 18.5N 131.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.4N 130.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2012

...OLIVIA MAINTAINING 60-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 120.9W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2012

ASCAT DATA FROM 0552 UTC WAS INCREDIBLY HELPFUL FOR DETERMINING THE
CENTER LOCATION OF OLIVIA AND ADJUSTING THE WIND RADII. THE ASCAT
AND OTHER MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND MOST OF
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WITH
THE ASCAT DATA SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-45 KT...AND TAFB AND SAB
ANALYSTS YIELDING 55 KT. THE LOW BIAS AND RESOLUTION PROPERTIES OF
ASCAT WOULD SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 50 KT...WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE ESTIMATED STRENGTH OF OLIVIA.

MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT OLIVIA...AND IT SEEMS
TO HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. WHILE
THE WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING IS CLOSING...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO INCREASE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY OF
OLIVIA SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE DURING THAT TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HOURS...AND OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS BECOME
DECOUPLED. OLIVIA COULD BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW
BY 48 HOURS AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY 96 HOURS.

OLIVIA HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4 KT.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...BUT IT SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY 24 HOURS AS
THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE. ONCE THE SHEAR INCREASES...THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS. THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 24
HOURS AND BEYOND...SO THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED
SOUTHWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE BULK OF THE TRACK MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 16.4N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 16.9N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.9N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 16.7N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 16.5N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 15.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Good morning, evening, everyone. A cool 54 degrees to start the day. It was beautiful yesterday, highs in the sixties. Back to the mid eighties by the middle of the week.
1265. LargoFl
good morning folks! beautiful day here today!........
1266. LargoFl
@ Patrap Post 1209

Not weather related, but inclusion of High Flight was bitter sweet for me - the last time I read that beautiful, evocative poem was when I read it as a Eulogy at my father's cremation many years ago.

They are fitting words for anyone connected with aviation - I have asked they be read when I finally "crash and burn"
Good morning. The 6z GFS develops a pretty decent storm and takes it out to sea:





1269. atris
97L Funktop loop shows an improvement ... but has alot of shear to battle....

Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. The 6z GFS develops a pretty decent storm and takes it out to sea:







But Bermuda is on the bullseye there. Do you have the frames when it reaches the islands?
1271. atris
The new 10% off Africa looks good in funktop

loop Link

and the water vapor imagery is telling me its in a good environment ..


Yes , I know the Cape Verde season is supposed to be over...
The setup of the vigorous tropical wave looks very similiar to Tomas of 2010.This wave will go through the islands as a big rainmaker. There are also signs that it could be a TD/TS by the time it reaches the lesser antilles.
Leaving for work early today. Recess with the kids should be beautiful weather today. Everyone have a great Monday.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. The 6z GFS develops a pretty decent storm and takes it out to sea:





The northern Islands have to watch it closely , it's a pretty close call....
1275. atris
Quoting stoormfury:
The setup of the vigorous tropical wave looks very similiar to Tomas of 2010.This wave will go through the islands as a big rainmaker. There are also signs that it could be a TD/TS by the time it reaches the lesser antilles.


It has a good chance,better than most of the waves this year...as it is positioned rather low ..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


But Bermuda is on the bullseye there. Do you have the frames when it reaches the islands?

It first reaches the Caribbean in just under a week... this run keeps it weak until it is north of the islands... I don't want to take too much blog space up posting all the frames but you can see the whole run here. Start at around 150 hours or so.
A moderate geomagnetic storm is currently in progress due to effects from a CME a couple days ago:



The odds of an M class flare today were a whopping 5%, but lo and behold we've just seen one happen, most likely from a new sunspot that has not rotated into view yet... if it stays active we could have an interesting 2 weeks as it transits the Earth facing side.



what makes this scenario even more interesting is the strong high which is about to be build in the next few days. this wave or tropical disturbance is embedded in a good moisture field which will allow it to slowly developed. it definitely needs watching.
1280. LargoFl
1282. atris
Quoting stoormfury:
what makes this scenario even more interesting is the strong high which is about to be build in the next few days. this wave or tropical disturbance is embedded in a good moisture field which will allow it to slowly developed. it definitely needs watching.


Agreed!!
1283. LargoFl
1284. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FOG IMPACT...
PATCHY FOG WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER INLAND LOCATIONS THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE
LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE
BETWEEN VEHICLES WHEN TRAVELING IN FOGGY CONDITIONS.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND HAVE A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION...THE
SLOW MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 50 MPH
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
1285. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL COUNTIES
AND SPARK SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A FEW OTHERS WILL FORM OVER
INLAND SECTIONS ON THEIR OWN. HOWEVER...AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND IT WILL THEN BRING INCREASED STORM CHANCES FOR INTERIOR
COUNTIES. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OR WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
EXHIBIT SLOW AND SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC MOTION DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
WINDS ALOFT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ANOTHER CONCERN GIVEN THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME HEATING AND AN INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING WITHIN URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
RAIN IN RECENT DAYS HAS BEEN HEAVY. PEAK TOTALS SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND CHAOTIC ALLOWING FOR GENEROUS RAINS TO FALL WITH ANY
GIVEN STORM.
I think Prapiroon intensified a little too quickly yesterday... it dragged down some dry air and is looking pretty ragged at the moment:

waiting for the 12Z of the GFS and the ECMWF runs to be a better assesment of direction and strengh of the catl tropical wave, The 06Z and the 18Z are not too reliable.
Good morning everyone, hopefully everyone is having nice weather and a good day. I see the 6z GFS developed the wave north of the Caribbean Islands and that that was has a 10% chance to develop in 48hrs.
Quoting stoormfury:
waiting for the 12Z of the GFS and the ECMWF runs to be a better assesment of direction and strengh of the catl tropical wave, The 06Z and the 18Z are not too reliable.

I thought that was only about some dropsonde/recon data and even then they aren't much different. When development is still in the medium to long range time frame there isn't much accuracy anyway. They also should be able to initialize fine and any run can make a mistake.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE PRODUCING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Wow!!:) THURSDAY Mostly Sunny 85'!!!:) in WPB!:)
1292. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
good morning folks! beautiful day here today!........


Good morning. A lot of dark clouds here over the Gulf this morning.
For West Palm Beach...

Convection is not as deep as yesterday with Olivia and it is separated into two areas. I think Olivia has likely peaked and will slowly begin to weaken over the next day.
1296. icmoore
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

They say the seabreeze will come in early this afternoon along the W coast with thunderstorms possible. I see a lot of clouds out over the Gulf already this morning.
Have a great day everyone, the wave in the C ATL is looking decent. 12z GFS will likely show something different than the 6z and we need to wait until we get closer to development time for more consistency.
Morning all. I logged in this morning and noticed many comments of the blog here are missing. It seems like the comments by Neapolitan and Patrap are gone. Have those users been banned? I think so because if you search for them by their handle it says it's been banned by weather blog admin. I sure hope they return soon.

Well it sure seems to me that the longer range outlooks are hinting at much more rainfall for the Heartland! Great new Guys!!



1301. 7544
97L out to recurve

wave behind it recurve

next
Quoting 7544:
97L out to recurve

wave behind it recurve

next

Running out of time. Might be time to throw in the towel for 2012. 2013 might be more interesting.
Quoting atris:
The new 10% off Africa looks good in funktop

loop Link

and the water vapor imagery is telling me its in a good environment ..


Yes , I know the Cape Verde season is supposed to be over...


It is over...it's getting too far west to be classified a Cape Verde.
1304. atris
Quoting quasistationary:


It is over...it's getting too far west to be classified a Cape Verde.


true ..I was getting ahead of myself ...but its an interesting looking wave IMHO for sure
Quoting atris:


true ..I was getting ahead of myself ...but its an interesting looking wave IMHO for sure

Nah. You're just looking ahead to the 2013 season. Just admit it. LOL. ;-)
98L...

AL, 98, 2012100806, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2012100812, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO
1307. SLU
Begin!

016

WHXX01 KWBC 081303

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1303 UTC MON OCT 8 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982012) 20121008 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

121008 1200 121009 0000 121009 1200 121010 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.2N 37.6W 8.8N 41.2W 9.6N 44.6W 10.5N 47.9W

BAMD 8.2N 37.6W 8.1N 39.7W 8.4N 41.6W 9.1N 43.4W

BAMM 8.2N 37.6W 8.3N 40.3W 8.7N 42.8W 9.4N 45.3W

LBAR 8.2N 37.6W 8.3N 40.3W 8.5N 43.0W 8.8N 45.4W

SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 29KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

121010 1200 121011 1200 121012 1200 121013 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.4N 51.3W 12.7N 58.1W 13.0N 64.8W 12.7N 70.3W

BAMD 10.0N 45.0W 12.4N 47.3W 15.4N 48.1W 18.7N 47.7W

BAMM 10.3N 47.6W 12.7N 52.0W 14.9N 55.4W 16.8N 58.4W

LBAR 9.4N 47.6W 11.1N 51.5W 14.0N 54.3W 16.8N 55.4W

SHIP 30KTS 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS

DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 22KTS 22KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 37.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 34.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 30.8W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

Intensity models are not too excited
Quoting CaribBoy:
Intensity models are not too excited

Not too robust.

That's for sure.

Makes sense, too.
1310. SLU
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
98L...

AL, 98, 2012100806, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2012100812, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO


10% is wayyy too conservative when you look at the latest microwave pass. The system isn't that far from being a TD.
1311. SLU
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210081302
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012100812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012100712, , BEST, 0, 80N, 308W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 90, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100718, , BEST, 0, 80N, 325W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 342W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 80, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100806, , BEST, 0, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012100812, , BEST, 0, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
406 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001 -002-010-011-019-
081400-
/O.CON.KLOT.FZ.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121008T1400Z/
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQ UOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHE ATON...OTTAWA...
OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...W ATSEKA...
PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER ...FOWLER
406 AM CDT MON OCT 8 2012 /506 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2012/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/
THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH MID 20S IN COLDEST
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

For the western suburbs of Chicago, you can kiss the growing season good-bye. A growing season that began last March with the first Heat Wave.

Link
Watch this one closely.
97L...

1316. 7544
Quoting 7544:
97L out to recurve

wave behind it recurve

next


revise added 98l recurve
next
Bam, Bam, Bam...

Quoting TomballTXPride:

Not too robust.

That's for sure.

Makes sense, too.


And they were calling 97L to become a minimal hurricane. Clearly, that didn't happen.

Think of Hurricane Tomas. This is similar to that.
06z GFS, 156 hours out shows a strengthening tropical storm.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 08 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-142

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN BAHAMAS FOR 08/1800Z AND FOLLOW ON
MISSION FOR 09/1200Z BOTH CANCELED NY NHC AT 08/1100Z.
98L's kind of a throwback to a month or two ago when Cape Verde season was in full swing... it should be an interesting one to watch, development will be slow but it's very possible this will become Patty.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Morning all. I logged in this morning and noticed many comments of the blog here are missing. It seems like the comments by Neapolitan and Patrap are gone. Have those users been banned? I think so because if you search for them by their handle it says it's been banned by weather blog admin. I sure hope they return soon.

Well it sure seems to me that the longer range outlooks are hinting at much more rainfall for the Heartland! Great new Guys!!





I guess it shows that certain people here are not above Admin or maybe they got to political.

Nice convection associated with the ITCZ in the CATL now named 98L





Olivia isn't looking to good.



Prapiroon is building again, predicted to hit Okinawa this weekend, could see RI again.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


And they were calling 97L to become a minimal hurricane. Clearly, that didn't happen.

Think of Hurricane Tomas. This is similar to that.
06z GFS, 156 hours out shows a strengthening tropical storm.

Comparing 2010's atmospheric conditions to that of 2012 in terms of the vertical instability factor is like compared apples to oranges.

Key word: 2012 Drought over the CONUS.

This won't amount to a Tomas even.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I guess it shows that certain people here are not above Admin or maybe they got to political.

Nice convection associated with the ITCZ in the CATL now named 98L





Olivia isn't looking to good.



Prapiroon is building again, predicted to hit Okinawa this weekend, could see RI again.


I guess not. Prapiroon looks better indeed.
1324. JLPR2
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
98L...

AL, 98, 2012100806, 81N, 359W, 20, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2012100812, 82N, 376W, 25, 1008, LO


Wasn't expecting that so soon.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I guess it shows that certain people here are not above Admin or maybe they got to political.

Nice convection associated with the ITCZ in the CATL now named 98L





Olivia isn't looking to good.



Prapiroon is building again, predicted to hit Okinawa this weekend, could see RI again.


Pat's still banned, but I checked Nea's blog and either he wasn't banned or was only banned a short time because his blog is up.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Comparing 2010's atmospheric conditions to that of 2012 in terms of the vertical instability factor is like compared apples to oranges.

Key word: 2012 Drought over the CONUS.

This won't amount to a Tomas even.


We'll see, even 2011 had significant vertical stability and we got Rina in October. That's not the only factor. 98L is being fed by the ITCZ.
Convection has been building some with 97L but it's very disorganized still:

1328. atris
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nah. You're just looking ahead to the 2013 season. Just admit it. LOL. ;-)


Well September was kind of boring ... couple of fish and that was all ...




possible epac major and Leeward storm there
Any thoughts for 2013 season? Another active one...we are on a 3-year record for consecutive above average seasons
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We'll see, even 2011 had significant vertical instability and we got Rina in October. That's not the only factor. 98L is being fed by the ITCZ.

But all else being equal, 2012 probably will fall a bit shy of 2010 conditions besides vertical instability. But I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong and we see another Tomas.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

But all else being equal, 2012 probably will fall a bit shy of 2010 conditions besides vertical instability. But I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong and we see another Tomas.

I hope we don't see another Tomas, he was very deadly. 71 dead and $741 million in damage.