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You only die twice: Atlantic's 2nd longest TS of all-time is dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:14 PM GMT on October 04, 2012

The interminable, long-lived, pesky, persistent, perpetual, never-say-day, tenacious, non-stop, I'm-not-dead-yet, Energizer-bunny-like Methuselah of Atlantic tropical cyclones, Tropical Storm Nadine, finally met its permanent doom this morning, but not before bringing tropical storm conditions to the northwest Azores Islands. Sustained winds of 43 mph, gusting to 54 mph, were recorded at Lajes at 8 am local time, as Nadine was completing its transition to an extratropical storm. Today is Nadine's 2nd death; the storm also became extratropical for just over a day on September 22. Nadine logged 21.75 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 am today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) Nadine's 21.25 days as a tropical or subtropical storm make it tied with Hurricane Ginger of 1971 as the Atlantic's second longest tropical storm on record. Only the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (28 days) was longer-lived. About one-quarter of this year's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic basin so far is due to Nadine. According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, here are the four previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted longer than Nadine (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21.75 days

The National Hurricane Center issued 88 advisories on Nadine, and lucky NHC hurricane specialist Lixion Avila got to write the final epitaph in today's 11 am EDT advisory: "Bye bye Nadine...what a long strange trip its been." See you again in 2018, Nadine.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:35 am EDT September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Oscar becomes the 15th named storm of 2012
The first new tropical storm in the Atlantic since September 12 is Tropical Storm Oscar, which was upgraded to a 40 mph tropical storm on Wednesday night. Oscar won't be around very long, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already suffering significantly from moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which has exposed the low-level center to view, and pushed all of Oscar's heavy thunderstorms well away from the center of circulation, to the storm's east side. Wind shear is expected to rise to a high 20 - 25 knots tonight, and ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 27°C by Friday. All of the computer models show Oscar ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a cold front attached to a large extratropical storm. Oscar is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. Oscar's formation brings this year's tally of named storms to fifteen, tying 2012 for 11th place for most tropical storms in a year. This puts 2012 in the top 10% of busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons for number of storms, since record keeping began in 1851. Despite the large number of named storms this year, we've had a pretty average number of strong hurricanes, so this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% higher than average for this time of year.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Oscar.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
None of the computers is predicting development of a new tropical cyclone over the Atlantic in the coming seven days. We will need to watch the waters between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda early next week, though, where the tail end of a cold front pushing off the U.S. East Coast may serve as the focal point for development of a tropical disturbance.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The Weather Channel Contacts TheWeatherSpace.com over Naming Issue

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - While TWC on-air meteorologists brag about being the first to name coming Winter Storms, TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin has contacted The Weather Channel over the credit to claim, and a response was given.

The Weather Channel announced yesterday that they will be the first to name Winter Storms in the United States, before they come. Many have named them after the fact but no one has ever named them before hitting. However this was wrong.

Last night, Martin looked in an archive that is as good as a time machine itself, proving without a doubt he named them as far back as 2004. But, in reality he started it before the year 2000 with his viewers. The 2006 archive is enough to show the world The Weather Channel is not the first to come up with Winter Storm names before hitting populated areas.

TheWeatherSpace.com Network is the same outline as Ontario Weather Service back then and Southern California Weather Authority. However TheWeatherSpace.com is the national level site.

"TheWeatherSpace.com's studio is being built in Los Angeles, California and the novelty of this site on-air is to name Winter Storms," said Martin. "As you saw in the 2006 Blog and archive snapshot of my site back then showing it was categorized and named before hitting populated areas in Southern California."

What about on a national level?

"Adopting the same method of the Southern California Weather Authority, naming Winter Storms would expand this year nationally using my concept," said Martin. "The concept has a working category and criteria system for these storms, the same criteria for snow/blizzards in Southern California's Mountains."

The Weather Channel has contacted Martin today stating they will be giving a few days to speak to the company about it as Martin is pressing this issue hard.

"We already have a Winter Storm out there," said Martin. "Winter Storm Adam has been declared here at TheWeatherSpace.com and it will impact the most across North Dakota and Minnesota tonight. This is only confusing people and when TheWeatherSpace.com's main office goes even more national it will confuse them further."

So it looks like there will be an issue between The Weather Channel and TheWeatherSpace.com Networks on naming Winter Storms, since Martin has the documentation that would change their path.

Updates will come as they are available.

Link
Winter Storm Adam hits tonight into Thursday as a Category Two for ND/MN

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - Winter Storm Adam was declared last night here at TheWeatherSpace.com, and it is continuing to develop across South Dakota and deepen through Minnesota tonight, bringing snowfall to the region.

Winter Storm Adam is a high end Category One to weak Category Two on the Martin Winter Storm Intensity Scale, which means that in the center of the dynamics, wind gusts will reach 25 to 38 mph with up to 12 inches of snowfall.

Adam will start to drop snow in Southeast North Dakota overnight tonight, quickly deepening through Thursday morning and dropping category one conditions 6-11" of snowfall in Eastern North Dakota through Northwest Minnesota.

Because of the upper divergence within the band, expecting localized areas of 12" or higher, which ... with the wind ... will make it a weak end category two system.

Overall the system is a Category One for much of the area ... but some spots in the center of the dynamics will receive Category Two conditions.

Thundersnow could be possible at the upper Minnesota / North Dakota Border or in extreme Northwest Minnesota with the system.



The map above shows the category one and two shading of the forecast for Winter Storm, which is the first Winter Storm name of the 2012-2013 Winter Storm Season.

Thanks Dr. Masters for the much needed update..
Nadine is a gonner..but will be remembered..
Oscar looks ..well just not that great..
Thanks again Dr. Masters
Can anyone see where the cold front is??

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Have to agree Oscar will not be around for very long

Thanks Doc


From the last blog

Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my bad; I thought you were engaging in a grown-up conversation, not sitting back waiting for a chance at an incongruent cheap shot. But no worries; I'll not make that mistake again.


I am engaging in a grown up conversation .. I am just trying to work out why you would be so pro an idea that makes so little sense among the majority of the community .. and that can be the only reason I can come up with ...
Thanks Doc.
TheWeatherSpace.com Will Name Nationwide Winter Storms This Season


The Weather Channel naming systems like Nemo, Q, and other crazy names has diminished their respected credibility from TheWeatherSpace.com. This move was more of an Accuweather Inc. move than a move expected from The Weather Channel.
Quoting AussieStorm:
The Weather Channel Contacts TheWeatherSpace.com over Naming Issue

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - While TWC on-air meteorologists brag about being the first to name coming Winter Storms, TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin has contacted The Weather Channel over the credit to claim, and a response was given.

The Weather Channel announced yesterday that they will be the first to name Winter Storms in the United States, before they come. Many have named them after the fact but no one has ever named them before hitting. However this was wrong.

Last night, Martin looked in an archive that is as good as a time machine itself, proving without a doubt he named them as far back as 2004. But, in reality he started it before the year 2000 with his viewers. The 2006 archive is enough to show the world The Weather Channel is not the first to come up with Winter Storm names before hitting populated areas.

TheWeatherSpace.com Network is the same outline as Ontario Weather Service back then and Southern California Weather Authority. However TheWeatherSpace.com is the national level site.

"TheWeatherSpace.com's studio is being built in Los Angeles, California and the novelty of this site on-air is to name Winter Storms," said Martin. "As you saw in the 2006 Blog and archive snapshot of my site back then showing it was categorized and named before hitting populated areas in Southern California."

What about on a national level?

"Adopting the same method of the Southern California Weather Authority, naming Winter Storms would expand this year nationally using my concept," said Martin. "The concept has a working category and criteria system for these storms, the same criteria for snow/blizzards in Southern California's Mountains."

The Weather Channel has contacted Martin today stating they will be giving a few days to speak to the company about it as Martin is pressing this issue hard.

"We already have a Winter Storm out there," said Martin. "Winter Storm Adam has been declared here at TheWeatherSpace.com and it will impact the most across North Dakota and Minnesota tonight. This is only confusing people and when TheWeatherSpace.com's main office goes even more national it will confuse them further."

So it looks like there will be an issue between The Weather Channel and TheWeatherSpace.com Networks on naming Winter Storms, since Martin has the documentation that would change their path.

Updates will come as they are available.

Link


suprised neao don't bring that up
The No Name Storm of 1991



The No Name Storm of 1993



The No Name Blizzard of 1977



The No Name Blizzard of 2006

Quoting yoboi:


surprised neao don't bring that up

Why would he.... he is all for TWC naming winter storms. They (TheWeatherSpace.com) have been doing it since 2000 and TWC is saying they are the first outside of NOAA to do it.
Thank you Dr. Masters
Quoting yoboi:


i was joking....neao wont say anything bad about TWC because they back his agenda....kinda like giving 90 billion to a green energy company and they go bankrupt within in 2 yrs.....

lol
Thanks Dr Masters.

Im back on here, and worried about next monday...we have heater problems at our pool and its supposed to be 46F.
Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
lol!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Winter Storm Adam hits tonight into Thursday as a Category Two for ND/MN

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - Winter Storm Adam was declared last night here at TheWeatherSpace.com, and it is continuing to develop across South Dakota and deepen through Minnesota tonight, bringing snowfall to the region.

Winter Storm Adam is a high end Category One to weak Category Two on the Martin Winter Storm Intensity Scale, which means that in the center of the dynamics, wind gusts will reach 25 to 38 mph with up to 12 inches of snowfall.

Adam will start to drop snow in Southeast North Dakota overnight tonight, quickly deepening through Thursday morning and dropping category one conditions 6-11" of snowfall in Eastern North Dakota through Northwest Minnesota.

Because of the upper divergence within the band, expecting localized areas of 12" or higher, which ... with the wind ... will make it a weak end category two system.

Overall the system is a Category One for much of the area ... but some spots in the center of the dynamics will receive Category Two conditions.

Thundersnow could be possible at the upper Minnesota / North Dakota Border or in extreme Northwest Minnesota with the system.



The map above shows the category one and two shading of the forecast for Winter Storm, which is the first Winter Storm name of the 2012-2013 Winter Storm Season.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
lol!

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
lol!

???????
Hi Grothar, of course the "no name" storm of 1993, has become known as ",Super Storm". But it was so called, after the fact, I don't believe it was called that during the event.
Quoting AussieStorm:
The Weather Channel Contacts TheWeatherSpace.com over Naming Issue

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - While TWC on-air meteorologists brag about being the first to name coming Winter Storms, TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin has contacted The Weather Channel over the credit to claim, and a response was given.

The Weather Channel announced yesterday that they will be the first to name Winter Storms in the United States, before they come. Many have named them after the fact but no one has ever named them before hitting. However this was wrong.

Last night, Martin looked in an archive that is as good as a time machine itself, proving without a doubt he named them as far back as 2004. But, in reality he started it before the year 2000 with his viewers. The 2006 archive is enough to show the world The Weather Channel is not the first to come up with Winter Storm names before hitting populated areas.

TheWeatherSpace.com Network is the same outline as Ontario Weather Service back then and Southern California Weather Authority. However TheWeatherSpace.com is the national level site.

"TheWeatherSpace.com's studio is being built in Los Angeles, California and the novelty of this site on-air is to name Winter Storms," said Martin. "As you saw in the 2006 Blog and archive snapshot of my site back then showing it was categorized and named before hitting populated areas in Southern California."

What about on a national level?

"Adopting the same method of the Southern California Weather Authority, naming Winter Storms would expand this year nationally using my concept," said Martin. "The concept has a working category and criteria system for these storms, the same criteria for snow/blizzards in Southern California's Mountains."

The Weather Channel has contacted Martin today stating they will be giving a few days to speak to the company about it as Martin is pressing this issue hard.

"We already have a Winter Storm out there," said Martin. "Winter Storm Adam has been declared here at TheWeatherSpace.com and it will impact the most across North Dakota and Minnesota tonight. This is only confusing people and when TheWeatherSpace.com's main office goes even more national it will confuse them further."

So it looks like there will be an issue between The Weather Channel and TheWeatherSpace.com Networks on naming Winter Storms, since Martin has the documentation that would change their path.

Updates will come as they are available.

Link


Did anyone at TWC not research this at all?..LOL!!!! how can you claim to be the first of something when its been going on for many years..good gosh almighty..
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Grothar, of course the "no name" storm of 1993, has become known as ",Super Storm". But it was so called, after the fact, I don't believe it was called that during the event.


its also been called the "perfect storm" as well..in fact a movie was made about it which included fishing..
Sry!!
Quoting AussieStorm:


???????
Quoting ncstorm:


Did anyone at TWC not research this at all?..LOL!!!! how can you claim to be the first of something when its been going on for many years..good gosh almighty..

Just sloppy, isn't it. Maybe they should give credit where credit is due.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Sry!!

I am just wondering what you were LOL'ing about?
Quoting ncstorm:


Did anyone at TWC not research this at all?..LOL!!!! how can you claim to be the first of something when its been going on for many years..good gosh almighty..



seems like a good question for neao but he bails when the kitchen gets to hott.....
Quoting ncstorm:


Did anyone at TWC not research this at all?..LOL!!!! how can you claim to be the first of something when its been going on for many years..good gosh almighty..


It would appear not ...LOL
this is

Quoting AussieStorm:

I am just wondering what you were LOL'ing about?
Nine children dead, nine missing as landslide buries school in China

NINE Chinese children have been confirmed dead and nine classmates are missing after a landslide engulfed their school as they made up classes lost due to deadly earthquakes last month, state media said.

A villager was also missing after the landslide buried the school and three farmhouses at Zhenhe village in the mountainous southwestern province of Yunnan, Xinhua news agency reported.

The slide also blocked a nearby river, creating a lake and forcing the evacuation of more than 800 residents living downstream, the agency said.

Almost 2,000 people had been mobilised to unblock the waterway and help in the rescue, it said, estimating the volume of earth at 160,000 cubic metres.

One person was seriously injured by the mudslide, Xinhua reported.

The students at the Youfang Primary School would not normally have been in school this week as China is on a week-long national holiday.

But officials said the children were making up for lost time caused by disruptions stemming from two September 7 earthquakes that struck Yiliang county where Zhenhe is located, killing 81 people and leaving hundreds injured.

Web users immediately raised questions about the decision to bring the children back to school.

The safety of school pupils is a sensitive issue after thousands of students died when an 8.0-magnitude tremor in 2008 rocked Sichuan province in southwestern China and parts of neighbouring Shaanxi and Gansu.

"Are the officials all on vacation? Why was there no alert? Why were there students in school during the holidays?" a user of leading portal Sina.com's popular micro-blogging service asked after the landslide.

Many schools collapsed in the 2008 quake, which killed more than 80,000 people in total.

This led to accusations that corner-cutting in construction projects and possibly corruption led to shoddy buildings, especially as many buildings near such schools held firm.

Images broadcast on state television showed rescue personnel picking through landslide debris. It said the landslide occurred after sustained rains in the area.

Many buildings in Yiliang County are located precariously at the foot of steep mountainsides.

The landslide struck at 8.00am local time as students were arriving for classes, reports said.

"More than 30 students were supposed to attend classes today and there were 18 pupils at school before the class started this morning," a local official who gave only his surname, Yang, said by phone.

"The school is just one single-storey teaching building."

Yiliang county was one of the areas worst-hit by the two 5.6-magnitude earthquakes last month.

"Youfang is one of the schools that has resumed classes. I have no more details," an official at the Yiliang Education Bureau who gave only his surname Zhang said.

An earlier statement by the bureau had encouraged all classes to resume by October 5.

A family of three managed to escape before the landslide hit, Xinhua said, but gave no other details on them.

Local government officials moved residents to safer ground after the disaster and dispatched rescue teams to the area, it added.

Last month's quakes left 820 people injured and 201,000 displaced.

In the wake of that disaster, domestic media said authorities should emphasise safety and sustainability in future developments.

Despite decades of rapidly improving living standards, China remains prone to natural disasters such as floods, quakes, and landslides, with heavy loss of life.
Wow. Deja vu. The beginning of this blog looks just like the end of last blog. ;)

I'll just sit here and plus deez again.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
this is


What is wrong with that? It's probably better than what TWC has so far. Do they actually have a set criteria yet?
Fantasy is great:
Quoting AussieStorm:

What is wrong with that? It's probably better than what TWC has so far. Do they actually have a set criteria yet?


Not as far as I am aware !!! but would love to see it, if anyone can find it...
Hi ncstorm, no, The Perfect Storm movie was about a late Oct. storm, that I believe merged with a tropical system. The Super Storm took place in March of 1993. I'm pretty sure about this. I guess we both could look it up on Google!
Quoting originalLT:
Hi Grothar, of course the "no name" storm of 1993, has become known as ",Super Storm". But it was so called, after the fact, I don't believe it was called that during the event.


You are correct, it was named after the fact. Like the 1991 storm became known as the Halloween Storm after the fact. I always thought the Blizzard of '88 should have been named. (Of course I am referring to 1888.)
Quoting ncstorm:


its also been called the "perfect storm" as well..in fact a movie was made about it which included fishing..


Yeah, somehow in the back of my mind I remember something about that. Maybe it was the blog I did on it last year.
Quoting originalLT:
Hi ncstorm, no, The Perfect Storm movie was about a late Oct. storm, that I believe merged with a tropical system. The Super Storm took place in March of 1993. I'm pretty sure about this. I guess we both could look it up on Google!


oh shoot..let me google...I thought it was about the super storm all these years..LOL
Quoting originalLT:
Hi ncstorm, no, The Perfect Storm movie was about a late Oct. storm, that I believe merged with a tropical system. The Super Storm took place in March of 1993. I'm pretty sure about this. I guess we both could look it up on Google!

The Perfect Storm October 30, 1991.

It's entirely possible--in fact, it's probable--that TWC was completely unaware of The Weather Space, as it's but an obscure, little-viewed website (that, it should be noted, only this year moved its chemtrail forecasting pages to "another server". [The article states the two sites are no longer afilliated, but a quick check of WHOIS show they're registered by the same entity, and they exist at the same IP address. Oopsie.]). From Alexa:

The Weather Channel
U.S rank: 31
World rank: 121

The Weather Space
U.S. rank: 265,109
World rank: 845,565

At any rate, I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim seems about as valid as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]". Nah, this looks to me suspiciously like someone trying to cash in on the publicity TWC has received for their great idea. Not that I blame them; they sure look like they could use it...
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, somehow in the back of my mind I remember something about that. Maybe it was the blog I did on it last year.


You have a blog:)..I will look to see if it was in reference to the "perfect storm" on wikipedia right now..
Quoting AussieStorm:

The Perfect Storm October 30, 1991.



thanks Aussie..so there was another Perfect Storm? Good to know..
Kevin Martin is NOT liked throughout the weather community. He thinks the information he puts out is official and the NWS is not an official source of information. He goes around telling people not to listen to them.
Quoting beell:
90% of the population will enjoy the novelty of named winter storms. And that is all it is. A novelty.

The novelty for the remaining 10% is watching the kool-aid drinking cheerleaders trying to convince us otherwise.

Some of ya'll look pretty hot in your little skirts and pom poms...



To be perfectly honest, I really, REALLY, would rather not see most of those in the blogs who are not fond of the new TWC naming systems in little skirts and pop poms. I prefer to keep my eyes from imploding ;)
Quoting AussieStorm:

What is wrong with that? It's probably better than what TWC has so far. Do they actually have a set criteria yet?
maybe you need some true blue upper midwest USA experience to understand how utterly ridiculous this appears.. such that myself, i laugh at the absurdity of categorizing and labeling the events this way. in no way has any snow storm in the last 50yrs ever been "catastrophic" when compared to the impacts of even a Cat. 2 tropical cyclone... sure, our sports dome roof collapsed recently, and cars got stranded on highways, accidents rampant.. but that's just 'way of life' during winter.
that chart, and the criteria/characteristics associated with naming are very hype inducing. i still find this naming business suspicious, unnecessary, and distasteful as a life long MN resident. there are memorable events that for social reasons, and archival reasons, adopting a name seems prudent. naming a 6"-11" event is just ridiculous!
let's start naming supercell thunderstorms while we're at it :P
last yellow in this part of the basin was 92 and that was a 0%. been a while.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears Dr. Masters has coined a new phrase "YODO"(you only die twice).
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1107 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. THE HIGHEST IMPACT WILL
BE IN THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO ROSEAU AREAS AS TREE LIMBS CONTINUE
TO FALL UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THE WET SNOW ON THE LEAFY BRANCHES AND
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AREA.



Grand Forks Webcam

Quoting Neapolitan:
It's entirely possible--in fact, it's probable--that TWC was completely unaware of The Weather Space, as it's but an obscure, little-viewed website (that, it should be noted, only this year moved its chemtrail forecasting pages to "another server". [The article states the two sites are no longer afilliated, but a quick check of WHOIS show they're registered by the same entity, and they exist at the same IP address. Oopsie.]). From Alexa:

The Weather Channel
U.S rank: 31
World rank: 121

The Weather Space
U.S. rank: 265,109
World rank: 845,565

At any rate, I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim seems about as valid as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]". Nah, this looks to me suspiciously like someone trying to cash in on the publicity TWC has received for their great idea. Not that I blame them; they sure look like they could use it...


TWC is like a company claiming to invent this yellow substance for sandwiches and spreads and then find out later that hey, mustard already existed..

For them to claim they were the first naming winter storms and they dont have their lawyers/research team to make sure of such a claim is not good planning right from the jump start..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Kevin Martin is NOT liked throughout the weather community. He thinks the information he puts out is official and the NWS is not an official source of information. He goes around telling people not to listen to them.


Really? Can you post something that validates that statement? Cuz if Martin did say that, he is not a very credible source IMO
Quoting Minnemike:
maybe you need some true blue upper midwest USA experience to understand how utterly ridiculous this appears.. such that myself, i laugh at the absurdity of categorizing and labeling the events this way. in no way has any snow storm in the last 50yrs ever been "catastrophic" when compared to the impacts of even a Cat. 2 tropical cyclone... sure, our sports dome roof collapsed recently, and cars got stranded on highways, accidents rampant.. but that's just 'way of life' during winter.
that chart, and the criteria/characteristics associated with naming are very hype inducing. i still find this naming business suspicious, unnecessary, and distasteful as a life long MN resident. there are memorable events that for social reasons, and archival reasons, adopting a name seems prudent. naming a 6"-11" event is just ridiculous!
let's start naming supercell thunderstorms while we're at it :P



The other issue is, what conclusions will they come to for a winter storm to be named. Furthermore, extra tropical cyclones, as the NWS points out would be rather hard to name. There are exceptions like the 1993 super storm, but that is an exception. Generally, non-tropical cyclones don't "make their own weather" in the way a tropical cyclone does. In an extra tropical low, you could have exceptionally low pressure, and not necessarily powerful winds, because a strong pressure gradient is needed, and the stronger winds will be generated where the pressure gradient force is strongest. The weather associated with them is generally not organized into a definitive center like that of a tropical cyclone. One system might have 40 knot winds, say in a quadrant 150 miles from the center, then it might shift to the opposite side of the low, 90 miles out from the center the next day. The same goes for snow accumulation and placement.


I'm not going to freak out about TWC naming them, it's not a big deal to me. However, it makes absolute logical sense why the NWS won't. there are many reasons that naming a tropical cyclone is practical, and there are many reasons for not naming a baroclinic system, some of which examples I have described. Also I wonder how the TWC will determine which ones should be named, and how to define impacts, and placement, and just general criteria, lol.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Really? Can you post something that validates that statement? Cuz if Martin did say that, he is not a very credible source IMO

Go through his Facebook. I'll get some quotes when I get home.
Quoting Jedkins01:



To be perfectly honest, I really, REALLY, would rather not see most of those in the blogs who are not fond of the new TWC naming systems in little skirts and pop poms. I prefer to keep my eyes from imploding ;)


I think you got it backwards..
Quoting TomballTXPride:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1107 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. THE HIGHEST IMPACT WILL
BE IN THE THIEF RIVER FALLS TO ROSEAU AREAS AS TREE LIMBS CONTINUE
TO FALL UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THE WET SNOW ON THE LEAFY BRANCHES AND
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AREA.



Grand Forks Webcam



Hmmm ,Wonder if it meets the TWC criteria yet....
Quoting VR46L:


Hmmm ,Wonder if it meets the TWC criteria yet....

Don't know.

Don't care.

It's a typical early Autumn winter storm for the Upper Midwest in my book.

Early Snows Not Unheard Of
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go through his Facebook. I'll get some quotes when I get home.


Can't access Facebook from this work computer. I'll look forward to what information you present
Quoting ncstorm:


I think you got it backwards..


Implosion would imply the brain's sudden reaction to the terrifying image, therefore sending signals to the eyes that they must retreat, sadly in such a case, the reaction is so sudden and violent, that they implode...

There you have it.
47) Have to agree, being a little further south, I tend to fear ice storms far more than snow storms. Snow doesn't usually take your power out before temps drop from near the freezing point as weather comes through, to near zero once it's through, and you're not going to have power back for several days to a week because of the widespread damage to the distribution systems. After snow you just wait for the roads to get plowed open and build some snowmen, snowforts, etc.
EPAC to get Olivia in a couple of days:

Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm not surprised that you took this kind of look at things. You can't handle that your pretty little TWC has been shown up. Neo, your ugly side is beginning to show.

Oscar is still Oscar the grouch and as ugly as ever.


Goodnight



neo's mo is if he keeps saying the same thing over and over somehow that will make it true....neo add some sugar to the kool-aid it taste better that way..
Some folks here with an obvious crush on Nea. Geez, people... get a room.

In other news, we got our first snow flurries near Nederland, Colorado this morning. You know it's fall in the Rockies when you have a Red Flag warning (high fire danger) followed immediately by snow flurries...

:)

Socked in today...

(Click image for very cool 24-hour video showing the cold front rolling in last night)
Quoting dabirds:
47) Have to agree, being a little further south, I tend to fear ice storms far more than snow storms. Snow doesn't usually take your power out before temps drop from near the freezing point as weather comes through, to near zero once it's through, and you're not going to have power back for several days to a week because of the widespread damage to the distribution systems. After snow you just wait for the roads to get plowed open and build some snowmen, snowforts, etc.
Definitely!! an ice storm always freaks me out, at least once I became a driver.. as a kid they were a lot of fun ;)
if any kind of winter weather approaches catastrophic, in all likelihood it will be a serious inch ice storm. rare snowstorm exceptions exist in the last 50yrs, most having been noted in these blog comments today (i.e. '93 storm etc.), of which being few in numbers.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SEVERAL
RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE
RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WOULD BE THE ANCLOTE...
ALAFIA...MANATEE...AND LITTLE MANATEE.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Kevin Martin and the NWS have quite a history it seems
National Weather Service confidential letter goes public, Kevin Martin responds


Thanks for posting that GS! Gosh, and these are adults acting this way?? LMAO over it
GFS at 48 Hours..watching that low by the islands
Quoting MrMixon:
Some folks here with an obvious crush on Nea. Geez, people... get a room.

In other news, we got our first snow flurries near Nederland, Colorado this morning. You know it's fall in the Rockies when you have a Red Flag warning (high fire danger) followed immediately by snow flurries...

:)

Socked in today...

(Click image for very cool 24-hour video showing the cold front rolling in last night)


can't afford a room been taxed to death past few yrs..
who thinks that nadine could regenerate in few days when the storm pulls further south after the low passes by?
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm not surprised that you took this kind of look at things. You can't handle that your pretty little TWC has been shown up. Neo, your ugly side is beginning to show.

So the 31st most viewed website in the country has been "shown up" by the 265,109th, an NWS-banned, anti-government purveyor of debunked conspiracy theories?

Seriously?

When you awaken, perhaps you'd be kind enough to explain for us just how that is?

BTW, by "took this kind of look at things", are you saying that you thought I'd take the time to do some research and thoughtful analysis? If so, the charge is true, I admit; I'm a stickler for doing my homework before commenting. I always thought that was a good thing... ;-)
I believe 2 areas of interest in the next few days,we might see some type of development by the Yucatan Peninsula and a low coming from the East to the Bahamas,don't know if this low will make it pass the Bahamas this time of year most likely will re-curve back to sea,some of the models are hinting at this low going over the Bahamas but we can't see actually where is going end up? all depends on the high pressure from the East and fronts coming down.On the Yucatan Peninsula we can see a lot of activity in this area today,I will not be surprise to see something going on on this area soon,specially this time of year.We'll see what happens in the next 2-4 days.
Quoting Speeky:
who thinks that nadine could regenerate in few days when the storm pulls further south after the low passes by?


If that happens we automatically skip to "R" and rename her Rasputin :)
Quoting Speeky:
who thinks that nadine could regenerate in few days when the storm pulls further south after the low passes by?



Quoting Neapolitan:
So the 31st most viewed website in the country has been "shown up" by the 265,109th, an NWS-banned, anti-government purveyor of debunked conspiracy theories?

Seriously?

When you awaken, perhaps you'll be kind enough to explain just how that is.

BTW, by "took this kind of look at things", are you saying that you thought I'd take the time to do some research and thoughtful analysis? If so, the charge is true, I admit; I'm a stickler for doing my homework before commenting. I always thought that was a good thing... ;-)


Still does not negate the fact that someone else who has a published criteria has been doing it before the "great" TWC ...
I would laugh if Nadine regenerates
I've got a ask : can someone give me a link to some American news websites? I:ll be very thankful :)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Energy Company Plans to Frack the Newberry volcano in Oregon


True genius has its limitations. Stupidity has no boundaries.
Quoting VR46L:


Still does not negate the fact that someone else who has a published criteria has been doing it before the "great" TWC ...
Now we're going in circles, and that just makes me dizzy. So I'll close with this from my comment #41: I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim of iilegality seems to have as much merit as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]".

(And FWIW, since TWC is providing this wonderful forum, I'd say it is pretty "great".)
Orlando should have lows in the 60's by next week.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TROPICAL STORM MARCE (GAEMI)
11:00 PM PhST October 4 2012
===============================

TROPICAL STORM MARCE has maintained its strength and continues to slowly move westward.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Marce (Gaemi) [994 hPa] located at 14.7N 117.8E or 240 km west of Subic, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Zambales
2. Bataan

Additional Information
=====================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10%u201325 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents in areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the western seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm Marce

(source via twitter)
Link
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
I've got a ask : can someone give me a link to some American news websites? I:ll be very thankful :)
..try CNN.com
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... AREAS OF FOG WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM ROUGHLY JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE THIS MORNING. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
Quoting ncstorm:


I think you got it backwards..

Yep, he got it backwards and doesn't realize it.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Now we're going in circles, and that just makes me dizzy. So I'll close with this from my comment #41: I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim of iilegality seems to have as much merit as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]".

(And FWIW, since TWC is providing this wonderful forum, I'd say it is pretty "great".)


Your entittled to your opinion ...just as much as I am ...

Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
I've got a ask : can someone give me a link to some American news websites? I:ll be very thankful :)


There is always Fox.... now I will duck out
Post#81, there is always MSNBC, now I will duck my head and get out of the way:)!
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
I've got a ask : can someone give me a link to some American news websites? I:ll be very thankful :)

Here's one.

Here's another.

lololololol



Quoting yoboi:


can't afford a room been taxed to death past few yrs..


Hmmm... perhaps you're not managing your money well. The small company I work for is thriving and even as a lowly geoscientist I've been able to comfortably afford my taxes as well as the occasional hotel room. Surely you agree that it's best to take personal responsibility for your situation rather than blame others, right?

I tried to find a webcam showing some snow up on the northern plains... but no luck. So here is a live look at some fall colors in Michigan to soothe the soul:


(Click image for link to the webcam page here on wunderground)
Quoting VR46L:


Not as far as I am aware !!! but would love to see it, if anyone can find it...


From the last blog- yes, they have criteria. Please go to weather.com, click "news" at top right, scroll down to the correct story and read about them. A little research goes a long way.



Quoting MrMixon:


Hmmm... perhaps you're not managing your money well. The small company I work for is thriving and even as a lowly geoscientist I've been able to comfortably afford my taxes as well as the occasional hotel room. Surely you agree that it's best to take personal responsibility for your situation rather than blame others, right?

I tried to find a webcam showing some snow up on the northern plains... but no luck. So here is a live look at some fall colors in Michigan to soothe the soul:


(Click image for link to the webcam page here on wunderground)
Beautiful! Thanks. I didn't realize they had mountains in Michigan. Or is that looking toward Canada? Or should I call it a hill. They call them hills in Scotland, but they are really mountains. I have been living too long at sea level:)
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's entirely possible--in fact, it's probable--that TWC was completely unaware of The Weather Space, as it's but an obscure, little-viewed website (that, it should be noted, only this year moved its chemtrail forecasting pages to "another server". [The article states the two sites are no longer afilliated, but a quick check of WHOIS show they're registered by the same entity, and they exist at the same IP address. Oopsie.]). From Alexa:

The Weather Channel
U.S rank: 31
World rank: 121

The Weather Space
U.S. rank: 265,109
World rank: 845,565

At any rate, I see nothing actionable in TWC naming winter storms even if TWS "came up with the idea first". The claim seems about as valid as TWC suing TWS over naming their organization "The Weather [Fill In The Blank]". Nah, this looks to me suspiciously like someone trying to cash in on the publicity TWC has received for their great idea. Not that I blame them; they sure look like they could use it...



I wonder how you learned to lie with statistics so well?

Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)
Im off for the rest of the week...so I just found out TWC is going to do a chat about their winter storm thing...I am very eager to know what their game is
Quoting Neapolitan:
...I admit; I'm a stickler for doing my homework before commenting. I always thought that was a good thing... ;-)



L. O. L!

EDIT(for context):
Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)


(16,000,000-850,000)/16,000,000= 0.95

To the correct sig figs, too!

Can't refute my analysis with a "you're dumb and wrong" answer on this one, bud. :)
Quoting kwgirl:
Beautiful! Thanks. I didn't realize they had mountains in Michigan. Or is that looking toward Canada? Or should I call it a hill. They call them hills in Scotland, but they are really mountains. I have been living too long at sea level:)


I believe most of the mountains in Michigan are located in the Upper Pennisula. :)
103. VR46L
Quoting goosegirl1:


From the last blog- yes, they have criteria. Please go to weather.com, click "news" at top right, scroll down to the correct story and read about them. A little research goes a long way.





here is the actual linkLink

But I cant see an actual criteria just talks about levels of snowfall but no amounts ..very fuzzy in details, but now I am really out
Quoting yoboi:


can't afford a room been taxed to death past few yrs..


Really? Do you live in Switzerland or something? No? Well then you claim has zero factual evidence considering here in the states taxes are the lowest they've been in the last 50 years.

At any rate, could you tone down your ideological trolling a bit? It doesn't really have a place here.
Quoting VR46L:


There is always Fox.... now I will duck out


He asked for a news site. I don't see what Fox has to do with news. Entertainment yes, but not news.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


He asked for a news site. I don't see what Fox has to do with news. Entertainment yes, but not news.

Link
Quoting kwgirl:
Beautiful! Thanks. I didn't realize they had mountains in Michigan. Or is that looking toward Canada? Or should I call it a hill. They call them hills in Scotland, but they are really mountains. I have been living too long at sea level:)


Well, technically the webcam does look towards Canada, but everything you see in that view is still in Michigan. I believe the tall hill in the background is Nub's Nob, home of the Nubs Nob Ski Area.



I don't think they call them mountains in Michigan, but I admit I haven't spent much time there. Sure is pretty, no matter what you call it. :)
109. VR46L
Quoting Xyrus2000:


He asked for a news site. I don't see what Fox has to do with news. Entertainment yes, but not news.


As far as I know its regarded as a news site albeit a right wing lending one ...but you are entittled to your opinion just as much as I am
Quoting seminolesfan:



L. O. L!


(16,000,000-850,000)/16,000,000= 0.95

To the correct sig figs, too!

Can't refute my analysis with a "you're dumb and wrong" answer on this one, bud. :)
Um--huh? What "analysis"? And what does that little bit of math have to do with anything? It would be ever so helpful were you to share with the rest of the class. TIA...

EDIT: Okay, I see you made changes to make your comment a bit more comprehensible. Please allow me to retort:

1) No one was discussing "relevance". I merely noted that the #31 site in the nation was almost certainly unaware of what the #265,109 in the nation was doing.

2) If you would like to discuss "relevance", I can think of no better metric than advertising revenue. Do you suppose that TWS can demand the same rates as TWC? If so, how? My own guess: TWC earns more. Much more.

3) Even if TWS were the #32 site in the nation--which it's not; there are 265,108 sites more popular than it--that wouldn't change the fact that it's an anti-government, banned-by-the-NWS site seeking to steal some of TWC's well-earned limelight.
Quoting VR46L:


As far as I know its regarded as a news site albeit a right wing lending one ...but you are entittled to your opinion just as much as I am

I've long held the believe that those of whom that view a Cable News Network as entertainment basically means they don't see eye to eye with the Network regarding their respective political undertone(s). Afterall, MSNBC is virtually entertainment to me, even though it really isn't. Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
Um--huh? What "analysis"? And what does that little bit of math have to do with anything? Care to share?

101. seminolesfan 6:10 PM GMT on October 04, 2012 +2
Quoting Neapolitan:
...I admit; I'm a stickler for doing my homework before commenting. I always thought that was a good thing... ;-)



L. O. L!

EDIT(for context):
Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)


(16,000,000-850,000)/16,000,000= 0.95

To the correct sig figs, too!

Can't refute my analysis with a "you're dumb and wrong" answer on this one, bud. :)



[Are we all just to believe you really don't get the context? Gloss over the criticism with a pity card.
Weak move, bro.]
Quoting seminolesfan:



I wonder how you learned to lie with statistics so well?

Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)


Okay, according to Alexa:

The Weather Channel: 121
The Weather Space: 845,565


If you limit it to just "weather" sites, the weather space is way way in the back of the list. To make this point even stronger, when you do a search for "weather" in google, the weather space isn't even in the first 10 pages of hits.

Sorry, but there really is no other way to interpret the data here. The weather channel and related affiliates are all top 10 weather sites, along with NOAA and government related sites. The weather space doesn't even register.
In plain english:

I propose that you posted Alexa stats in a misleading fashion in order to defame a web site YOU deem to be beneath your respect.
115. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I've long held the believe that those of whom that view a Cable News Network as entertainment basically means they don't see eye to eye with the Network regarding their respective political undertone(s). Afterall, MSNBC is virtually entertainment to me.


I actually like to see the whole picture by checking as much different opinion as possible before I form an opinion

Anyways the soon to be dead Oscar

Quoting VR46L:


I actually like to see the whole picture by checking as much different opinion as possible before I form an opinion

Anyways the soon to be dead Oscar


That's probably the best way to go in an honest attempt to remain unbiased and impartial, if that's even possible anymore in this day of age.

Yes, Oscar looks Pathetic indeed. I pity him.

Comment 116: Nice point.
Quoting seminolesfan:
In plain english:

I propose that you posted Alexa stats in a misleading fashion in order to defame a web site YOU deem to be beneath your respect.
Your proposal is, of course, devoid of merit. I presented Alexa's numbers in an honest and open fashion. No spin, no bias, no manipulation. Just the numbers as reported by Alexa. Some may disagree with those numbers or wish they were different, but facts are facts, I'm afraid. If TWC missed TWS's naming of winter storms, it's only because it's an obscure website.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Okay, according to Alexa:

The Weather Channel: 121
The Weather Space: 845,565


If you limit it to just "weather" sites, the weather space is way way in the back of the list. To make this point even stronger, when you do a search for "weather" in google, the weather space isn't even in the first 10 pages of hits.

Sorry, but there really is no other way to interpret the data here. The weather channel and related affiliates are all top 10 weather sites, along with NOAA and government related sites. The weather space doesn't even register.

'Top 10' and 'Top 10 Percent' are entirely different realms of success. To say that WeatherSpace being in the top bracket of websites is false because its not in the top few individuals is a logical fallacy that should not be even be purported as truth.
Quoting VR46L:


I actually like to see the whole picture by checking as much different opinion as possible before I form an opinion

Anyways the soon to be dead Oscar

Southwesterly windshear picking up in the MDR which probably signals the end to the Cape Verde Season.
Quoting seminolesfan:



L. O. L!

EDIT(for context):
Alexa tracks over 16,000,000 web sites and over four and a half billion, with a b, web pages.

Both sites are in the top 5% of Alexa ranked sites in the WORLD and are entirely relevant on a national scale.

If anything, your data suggests just the opposite of your premise.
The fact that a little "crappy" site is in the top tier of the entire planet should say a bit more than your caustic ramblings, IMO. :)


(16,000,000-850,000)/16,000,000= 0.95

To the correct sig figs, too!

Can't refute my analysis with a "you're dumb and wrong" answer on this one, bud. :)


You need to take a good course on statistics. You're using simple percentages on web traffic, which is no where near a normal Gaussian distribution. Alexa tracks millions of websites, but almost all traffic (> 90%) goes to the top 1% of sites. The weather channel is comfortably within that group, along with NOAA, the Weather Underground, and even Intellicast.
124. VR46L
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Southwesterly windshear picking up in the MDR which probably signals the end to the Cape Verde Season.


Thank God ...I have had enough of Cape Verde storm remnants and for that matter the storm season as a whole, have had the worst summer in 40 years..
Euro shows the monsoon trough stretching out over the SW Caribbean towards the EPAC. Lowering of pressures over there means we will need to shift our focus to that part of the world for possible tropical development.

2000 people lose power in near blizzard conditions in Grand Forks, ND.

From Henry Margusity
I've been through a Blizzard in a Storm with NO name, It felt good to be out of the rain.
In Grand Forks you don't get NO name.

Why do we have a community of people that just assume someone is dumb as a box of rocks if they just don't happen to agree with them?

I miss the old WUBA...
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I've long held the believe that those of whom that view a Cable News Network as entertainment basically means they don't see eye to eye with the Network regarding their respective political undertone(s). Afterall, MSNBC is virtually entertainment to me, even though it really isn't. Link


Journalistic integrity of any big news corp is suspect, however Fox really does take it to a whole new level. MSNBC saw how successful they were, and tried to mimic it with a left leaning view (except they suck at it) and basically just made themselves look sad. CNN has tried to remain more neutral but fails for other reasons (ooooo check out our hologram!).

I don't get my news from any of the big 3. I get it from multiple sources via the web, including foreign websites as they usually have a unique perspective on what's going on in this country. I also supplement with The Daily Show and the Colbert Report, as satire often has much more "tuthiness".

That is, unless the news has something to do with science. In that case I skip news sites entirely and look for the scientific research itself. The news sites rarely get it right and dumb it down to the point of uselessness.
130. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
2000 people lose power in near blizzard conditions in Grand Forks, ND.

From Henry Margusity
I've been through a Blizzard in a Storm with NO name, It felt good to be out of the rain.
In Grand Forks you don't get NO name.



I guess North Dakota just dont fit the criteria LOL but thanks for the link
Quoting VR46L:


I guess North Dakota just dont fit the criteria LOL but thanks for the link


North Dakota is no New York..thats fer sure...
Quoting seminolesfan:
Points on a line are of no substance with out delimiters of range.

I love your stubborness and holding the party line even in the face of a foolish appearing lack of ground to stand upon.

Keep fighting the good fight and Fly your True Colors proudly!
I'll try this one more time, then I'm afraid I'll have to let you go; I've more important things to do than spar with those afflicted by cognitive dissonance, you know?

1) I copied some published statistics from Alexa.

2) I pasted those statistics here without so much as a single change.

3) I noted that those statistics were from Alexa so anyone could go and check out my work.

QED: TWS's obscurity is very likely the reason TWC's principles weren't aware of the former site's convention of naming winter storms. Folks are free to spin that any way they wish, but they can't deny the numbers--and they only succeed in looking foolish when they try to do so.
Its not like I even am purporting that this site I've never heard of is of the same rank as almighty TWC.

If this was YOUR idea that got stolen I'm sure we would hear all about the big corp getting the little biz man down. But Noooo, All Hail AGW and its friends...
Even if they(the big wigs in charge, behind the screen) are the things you claim to hate.

Seems a lot similar to the Blue Wall of Officers accused of wrongdoings; Gotta protect our own...
Quoting TomballTXPride:

It's called pushing an agenda.

Wouldn't know. I wasn't here back then. Too bad though, huh? :-(
and you are one of the best at it
Quoting Xyrus2000:


He asked for a news site. I don't see what Fox has to do with news. Entertainment yes, but not news.






Ya really ought to give yhe kool aid a break.
Facility:
Neumayer Station III
northeast City: Neumayer Station
Country: Antarctica
Coordinates: -70.650000 / -8.250000





looks like a nice day in the deep south
Quoting PensacolaDoug:






Ya really ought to give yhe kool aid a break.
But its so HOT out there...
Long way out, but a pattern change like this one would produce quite a few rounds of severe weather.
139. yoboi
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Really? Do you live in Switzerland or something? No? Well then you claim has zero factual evidence considering here in the states taxes are the lowest they've been in the last 50 years.

At any rate, could you tone down your ideological trolling a bit? It doesn't really have a place here.


they are not the lowest in fifty yrs for a business owner.....also gas prices at an all time high....you can try a spin it but you can't....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Facility:
Neumayer Station III
northeast City: Neumayer Station
Country: Antarctica
Coordinates: -70.650000 / -8.250000





looks like a nice day in the deep south

Most of the time it is. A deep snowpack, deep high pressure overhead, light winds, clear skies...everything coming together for radiational cooling.
Quoting yoboi:


they are not the lowest in fifty yrs for a business owner.....also gas prices at an all time high....you can try a spin it but you can't....

You must remember business creation and private enterprise endeavors are not in everyone's best interest.
Quoting hydrus:
Long way out, but a pattern change like this one would produce quite a few rounds of severe weather.
iam thinking a strong midfall tornado season to herald in on winters fast approach from 11 of oct on
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Fantasy is great:

snnooowww?/????? PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Post# 139, gas prices are not at an all time high, they are high now, but the highest was during the summer of 2008. You can look it up, just Google it.
146. yoboi
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You must remember business creation and private enterprise endeavors are not in everyone's best interest.


i know i didn't build it....
147. yoboi
Quoting originalLT:
Post# 139, gas prices are not at an all time high, they are high now, but the highest was during the summer of 2008. You can look it up, just Google it.


i did and in ca yesterday all time high...
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I also supplement with The Daily Show and the Colbert Report, as satire often has much more "tuthiness".

That is, unless the news has something to do with science. In that case I skip news sites entirely and look for the scientific research itself. The news sites rarely get it right and dumb it down to the point of uselessness.

Yuppers, Colbert is more satire than the Daily Show is. Daily Show specializes in documenting hypocrisy of "news" organizations.

Yuppers, science reporting is sadly lacking in many cases. The online headline writers are the worst offenders. Far too many times I see headlines touting the solution to some problem only to read that someone is merely looking at the problem. Of course the headline writers are just trying to capture mouse clicks and eyeballs.

I get really tired of the gimmicks used to increase traffic/viewers. It never matters how much traffic you have. Management wants more!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam thinking a strong midfall tornado season to herald in on winters fast approach from 11 of oct on
Two things make me believe it possible. The NAO will go positive for a bit, and there usually is some type of fall outbreak.
Ok yoboi, I was looking up nation wide averages, on GasBuddy.com
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST THU OCT 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS....TUTT LOW NEAR 22N58W THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE TUTT LOW
WILL MOVE CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO/USVI LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCREASING
THE RISK FOR CONVECTION. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AND DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO BY LATE FRIDAY. A RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE WILL INDUCE A
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ALOFT NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TUTT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR 32N61W ALSO VISIBLE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL
MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL FORM A WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
BY SATURDAY. AS THE WEAK LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES...SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...
DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH
GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...DIURNAL PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE DURING THE
NEXT FEW OF DAYS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL DECR LATE AFT BUT ISOLD AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION WILL CONT INTO THE NIGHT ON NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF PR
INCLUDING USVI. PSBL MVFR WILL BE VERY BRIEF...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AT TJMZ AND AN OUTSIDE CHC ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. LLVL WINDS TO
GENERALLY BE NE 5-15 KT THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL LATER NEXT
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 88 / 30 30 30 50
STT 77 87 76 87 / 30 30 30 30

Quoting MrMixon:


I tried to find a webcam showing some snow up on the northern plains... but no luck. So here is a live look at some fall colors in Michigan to soothe the soul:


(Click image for link to the webcam page here on wunderground)


I see you've found my webcam. ;)



JK, but seriously I have almost the same view. This is wonderful time of the year in Michigan!
Its a miracle!!!! Nadine is gone!
After a few days of pretty deep cold in the Northern Plains and parts of the East, much of the nation is expected to warm back up next week. Here's the 8-14 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center:

8-14
Good afternoon everyone, I see Nadine is Nagone! Oscar isn't doing too well and the fall colors up here are very evident.
Got to love fall in Midwest, 82 for high today, 52 for high tomorrow, 54 was the low this a.m.

Cards going for 12th in '12, takes 12 wins to do it - seem familiar? (11th in '11 on 11 wins and last team in)
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC049-057-081-105-042030-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0058.121004T2001Z-121004T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HARDEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
POLK COUNTY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
MANATEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MEADE...OR
8 MILES NORTH OF WAUCHULA...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORT
GREEN...FORT LONESOME...ALAFIA RIVER STATE PARK AND DUETTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2764 8225 2792 8205 2774 8166 2749 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 116DEG 15KT 2766 8181

$$




It's like July in October here in Central Florida, PW's around 2.2 inches, a dew point of 77 and strong thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes.
Quoting dabirds:
Got to love fall in Midwest, 82 for high today, 52 for high tomorrow, 54 was the low this a.m.

Cards going for 12th in '12, takes 12 wins to do it - seem familiar? (11th in '11 on 11 wins and last team in)
Let's go Cards!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let's go Cards!

Ahhh no, that team didn't have a player win just win the triple crown. Mine did and the Tigers are better.

Today has a high so far of 78F and it is beautiful. Too bad it will cool of into the 50s.
middle of July here in Central Florida, PW's around 2.2 inches, a dew point of 77 and strong thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes.

Same here Jedkins01. PW 2.2 DewPoint 73° Just had a thunderstorm roll on in about 30 minutes ago
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ahhh no, your team didn't have a player win just win the triple crown.

Today has a high so far of 78F and it is beautiful. Too bad it will cool of into the 50s.

It's just another gloomy day in Central NC for 5th day in the row. Where's the sun?
Quoting Bluestorm5:

It's just another gloomy day in Central NC for 5th day in the row. Where's the sun?

I took it and brought it to MI to have one last day in the sun.
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Hi :) The rain is moving on up!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Let's go Cards!
I'm a Braves fan, myself.
Despite a few areas of showers and thunderstorms across Florida, Illinois, and the Northeast, along with some light snow showers in Minnesota, much of the United States is currently dry. The position of the cold front responsible for much cooler weather so far this week across the Plains, and upcoming cooler weather for people in the Southeast, is clearly visible when overlaying the current temperatures on the USA base map.

Quoting FtMyersgal:
middle of July here in Central Florida, PW's around 2.2 inches, a dew point of 77 and strong thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes.

Same here Jedkins01. PW 2.2 DewPoint 73° Just had a thunderstorm roll on in about 30 minutes ago


Nice, I'm 25 miles away+ from the thunderstorms still and I can already here thunder rumbling from in my house, they are some powerful cells. I already had over 2 inches of rain yesterday, a very wet start to October it has been.
Quoting Slamguitar:


I see you've found my webcam. ;)



JK, but seriously I have almost the same view. This is wonderful time of the year in Michigan!


It looks gorgeous. I love autumn just about everywhere, but the Midwestern and Eastern states have so much great color this time of year. It's mostly just yellow here in Colorado. We do get reds and oranges too... but only the occasional aspen grove gets the red/orange color, so we have to be content to take in our red colors on the small plants like wild roses, sumac, and geraniums.

Can you tell me if I was correct about that hill being Nub's Nob?



big o north atlantic low spinning there move along the cyclone show may be over
Quoting Jedkins01:


Nice, I'm 25 miles away from the thunderstorms still and I can already here thunder rumbling from in my house, they are some powerful cells. I already had over 2 inches of rain yesterday, a very wet start to October it has been.


Hope you get some more rain! I only got .54 in in the past 24 hours. Parts of downtown Fort Myers received 2" yesterday
Quoting Jedkins01:


Nice, I'm 25 miles away+ from the thunderstorms still and I can already here thunder rumbling from in my house, they are some powerful cells. I already had over 2 inches of rain yesterday, a very wet start to October it has been.


I'm hoping for a deluge of my own on the other side of the state. Cheers!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 41.0W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

OSCAR IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. SEVERAL LOW CLOUD
SWIRLS ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THAT CENTER. SINCE THE STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS
NOT CHANGED SINCE THE 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 40 KT. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. OSCAR IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS
NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL PROVE TO BE RIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10 KT. OSCAR HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANTICIPATED...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPEED UP AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
DIGGING DEEP-LAYER LOW. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
UNTIL THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION...EVEN IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50
LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 21.3N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 22.8N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.0N 35.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Will miss you Nadine you were so fun.Hope I can live and track you again in 2018.
Tropical Storm Oscar:

Quoting wxchaser97:

Ahhh no, that team didn't have a player win just win the triple crown. Mine did and the Tigers are better.

Today has a high so far of 78F and it is beautiful. Too bad it will cool of into the 50s.
Last time that happened, the Cards beat his team in the Series! (Of course the next year..., revenge in '06 however) Still will be in the 50s when the Nats will most likely be in StL for Division Series opener Sun., but should be sunny. Warms to 60s Monday.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Hope you get some more rain! I only got .54 in in the past 24 hours. Parts of downtown Fort Myers received 2" yesterday



Yeah it looks like we are going to get hammered, I live in Pinellas and its thundering really loud here already, looking east there is a huge anvil top with a shelf cloud at the base slowly advancing this way. Moisture as very high and with storms moving slowly, it will be easy to get 3 or 4 inches of rain locally from a single cell.

How has it been down there overall for the rainy season? We had a very active one, just over 40 inches for my June through September total. We already have more rain than we normally get for the whole month of October, as typically the rainy season ends by now and October is usually fairly "dry".
Quoting StAugustineFL:


I'm hoping for a deluge of my own on the other side of the state. Cheers!




Good luck!


Tonight looks like a classic July sea breeze setup for Tampa Bay. Great looking and great sounding storms approaching me.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Hope you get some more rain! I only got .54 in in the past 24 hours. Parts of downtown Fort Myers received 2" yesterday


We got about 2" yesterday here in Madeira Beach with the previous day at about .30" but that was the most for us in a long while, although it's starting to look promising again for this afternoon.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah it looks like we are going to get hammered, I live in Pinellas and its thundering really loud here already, looking east there is a huge anvil top with a shelf cloud at the base slowly advancing this way. Moisture as very high and with storms moving slowly, it will be easy to get 3 or 4 inches of rain locally from a single cell.

How has it been down there overall for the rainy season? We had a very active one, just over 40 inches for my June through September total. We already have more rain than we normally get for the whole month of October, as typically the rainy season ends by now and October is usually fairly "dry".


We started out pretty dry, but things picked up after Debby. I've only had my Stratus rain guage for a month, so I don't really have a rainfall total for my house.
Beautiful afternoon here this evening.It was very humid this morning and misty.That has since changed and it's just drop dead gorgeous outside with a breeze.I see Nadine has blown out her final candle and is no longer with us and neither will Oscar be in a few days...
drove by a retention pond where the water was higher than us. e cen florida watching the gulf for even more heavy rain
Would TWC take Alaska storms into consideration (since AK is part of USA)...
right now they're getting hit by a big one!!!

no ATHENA either? lol
not this one either...gotta wait til tomorrow to see what they say

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
147 PM MDT THU OCT 4 2012

...SEASONS FIRST WINTER WEATHER EVENT SET TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...

.A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE SET TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...BRINGING THE AREA ITS FIRST SNOW FALL OF THE
SEASON. THE FIRST LOOKS TO IMPACT NIOBRARA COUNTY IN WYOMING
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SIOUX...DAWES AND BOX BUTTE COUNTIES IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL SNOW GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
SNOW AMOUNTS...MAINLY TO THE LARAMIE RANGE AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...6 PM FRIDAY THROUGH 3 PM SATURDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS
TO FALL FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 10 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

* WINDS/VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO UNDER A QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG INTERSTATES 80 AND
25 DUE AND LOCAL ROADS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED
ROADS ARE POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
I just saw MississippiWx comment 116.It was pure epicness.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I just saw MississippiWx comment 116.It was pure epicness.
wash.......I've been scrambling looking for the word "epicness" Not sure if it a word, but I think it should be.......
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 PM AST THU OCT 4 2012

PRC023-067-079-097-121-125-042215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0368.121004T2024Z-121004T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-LAJAS PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-
MAYAGUEZ PR-
424 PM AST THU OCT 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...LAJAS...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...CABO ROJO AND
MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 420 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY FAIN AFFECTING PARTS OF
THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ONE INCH OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT
CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 615 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1810 6721 1811 6719 1816 6719 1817 6702
1814 6697 1815 6694 1803 6694 1802 6696
1800 6696 1800 6721 1802 6719 1803 6721

$$

FIGUEROA
"NASA engineers, student interns and amateur radio enthusiasts around the world are listening for signals from a small, cube-shaped satellite launched into orbit from the International Space Station Thursday. The satellite, dubbed "TechEdSat," was released at 11:44 a.m. EDT from the new Japanese Small Satellite Orbital Deployer aboard the space station. TechEdSat measures about 4 inches (10 centimeters) on a side and carries a ham radio transmitter. It was developed by a group of student interns from San Jose State University (SJSU) in California with mentoring and support from staff at NASA's Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif. TechEdSat arrived at the space station aboard the Japanese H-II Transfer Vehicle July 21 and the station's Expedition 33 crew processed it for launch."


(Click image for more information)
Blob over Florida. I would like to name it Zita, after my great-Aunt.

Quoting MississippiWx:
TWC is in it for the ratings. We all see that during hurricane season. They have now found a way to hype things outside of hurricane season to gain more viewers. Giving a storm a "name" catches the attention of viewers and they are more likely to watch TWC during that time.

None of this takes away from the fact that TWC is very average to below average with its productions and forecasts. Stick to the NWS/NHC. They will ALWAYS outperform the attention-whore known as The Weather Channel.


Guys...remember the blog is now under TWC rule
Quoting Grothar:
Blob over Florida. I would like to name it Zita, after my great-Aunt.

Sure, why not!? They're naming everything now.
Quoting RickWPB:
Sure, why not!? They're naming everything now.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALBERTA MOVING THOUGH NYC AREA...
THE TORNADO ELIEZER MOVING NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM, AL..

what ELSE??? Tsunamis, auroras, solar storms, wildfires ???
Quoting RickWPB:
Sure, why not!? They're naming everything now.

I really don't understand how naming tropical cyclones and winter storms, two of which significantly impact the United States each year, is naming "everything".
Quoting MississippiWx:
TWC is in it for the ratings. We all see that during hurricane season. They have now found a way to hype things outside of hurricane season to gain more viewers. Giving a storm a "name" catches the attention of viewers and they are more likely to watch TWC during that time.

None of this takes away from the fact that TWC is very average to below average with its productions and forecasts. Stick to the NWS/NHC. They will ALWAYS outperform the attention-whore known as The Weather Channel.

The Weather Channel was never the same after the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons. Notice how they jazzed up their studio and everything after those seasons because their ratings soared from the record coverage of all the storms those years. And now they are doing everything they can do to look like we are having more hyper-active years with Katrina-like storms (like they did with Isaac). I've been noticing some of their tactics. On their tropical update screen when the Atlantic is quiet, they circle in red a couple disturbances in the Atlantic and then they circle the two or three disturbances in the East Pacific and they're like "Oh look! there are five disturbances and storms that are a concern!" They steal the activity from the East Pacific to make it look like there is more activity than there is in the Atlantic to make up for the inactivity. I just get angry watching them do stuff like that nowadays, especially compared to how chill they were before all this happened.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I really don't understand how naming tropical cyclones and winter storms, two of which significantly impact the United States each year, is naming "everything".
Some people, in possession of underdeveloped senses of scale, are apparently unable to distinguish between long-lasting major winter storm events that disrupt tens of millions of people across a large geographical area, and short-lived phenomena such as thunderstorms or tornadoes. Either that, or they simply can't comprehend what they read, as those differences have been outlined here and elsewhere about a hundred times in the past couple of days...

As an aside, I'm a bit taken aback at the entitlement displayed by posters who come here--to a forum provided by TWC and Dr. Masters--to lambaste TWC and Dr. Masters. (They also apparently have underdeveloped senses of irony...)
Quoting opal92nwf:

The Weather Channel was never the same after the 2004-2005 hurricane seasons. Notice how they jazzed up their studio and everything after those seasons because their ratings soared from the record coverage of all the storms those years. And now they are doing everything they can do to look like we are having more hyper-active years with Katrina-like storms (like they did with Isaac). I've been noticing some of their tactics. On their tropical update screen when the Atlantic is quiet, they circle in red a couple disturbances in the Atlantic and then they circle the two or three disturbances in the East Pacific and they're like "Oh look! there are five disturbances and storms that are a concern!" They steal the activity from the East Pacific to make it look like there is more activity than there is in the Atlantic to make up for the inactivity. I just get angry watching them do stuff like that nowadays, especially compared to how chill they were before all this happened.

To a point I agree with you. TWC is nowhere near as good now as they were back then. But actually, I think they're better now then they were a year ago at this time. They've brought a little bit of real science into the tropics this year, labeling invests and discussing the MJO, things like that. Certainly there's hype from time to time, and there's a lot of useless shows on there these days, but really, when it comes down to it, they're a TV station and they have to bring in the ratings somehow. I would certainly recommend the NWS's forecasts over TWC's forecasts, but really, they're not that bad.

I do disagree with the naming of winter storms. It's just silly. The more I think about it, the stupider it sounds. I wouldn't be surprised if they bail out of the idea next year.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

To a point I agree with you. TWC is nowhere near as good now as they were back then. But actually, I think they're better now then they were a year ago at this time. They've brought a little bit of real science into the tropics this year, labeling invests and discussing the MJO, things like that. Certainly there's hype from time to time, and there's a lot of useless shows on there these days, but really, when it comes down to it, they're a TV station and they have to bring in the ratings somehow. I would certainly recommend the NWS's forecasts over TWC's forecasts, but really, they're not that bad.

I do disagree with the naming of winter storms. It's just silly. The more I think about it, the stupider it sounds. I wouldn't be surprised if they bail out of the idea next year.

There are several reasons why it is more helpful than harmful. For one, Naming winter storms gives a heightened awareness to the public. This is also the case when dealing with tropical cyclones. We all know the public pays a lot more attention to 40 mph Tropical Storm [Name] than it does to Tropical Depression [Number]. Winter storms are no different. They are more likely to listen if it has a name opposed to just a generic title. Naming them makes it easier to follow, and also allows it to be remembered. You're significantly more likely to remember Winter Storm Athena as opposed to 'that winter storm in late October'.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Beautiful afternoon here this evening.It was very humid this morning and misty.That has since changed and it's just drop dead gorgeous outside with a breeze.I see Nadine has blown out her final candle and is no longer with us and neither will Oscar be in a few days...


Oh, you're so right- it's gorgeous out there. And I just found out that someone at my husband's workplace was putting together a "Men of" calendar, and he will be the October model. He was dirty from work as usual, and planting mums for homecoming when the picture was taken, so this amuses me to no end- I think it is his dismay at being a model that's got me tickled :)
Thunderstorms seem to defy physics sometimes around Tampa Bay. I just watched an individual cell along the line as it moved in come to a completely stop just east of me, then move northeast completely against the steering flow. It completely makes no sense. It's as if that part of the line says "well I'm not going to move over his house today, but that's ok, I'll just move in the opposite direction of the steering flow".

lol forgive me for my silliness, but its stuff like this about weather that drives me nuts trying to understand.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There are several reasons why it is more helpful than harmful. For one, Naming winter storms gives a heightened awareness to the public. This is also the case when dealing with tropical cyclones. We all know the public pays a lot more attention to 40 mph Tropical Storm [Name] than it does to Tropical Depression [Number]. Winter storms are no different. They are more likely to listen if it has a name opposed to just a generic title. Naming them makes it easier to follow, and also allows it to be remembered. You're significantly more likely to remember Winter Storm Athena as opposed to 'that winter storm in late October'.

yeah... I understand why they are naming them.... not sure how itll go but I guess we will just have to wait and see...
i dont't know if this has already been said, but does anyone else HATE how TWC keeps putting on these lame shows like turbine cowboys or iceburg hunters or life guard? I can barly find out the weather anymore on their tv station
After reading this blog I have a craving for cheese... I guess it is all the whine-ing going on.

I do like a good bit of cheese with my wine.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There are several reasons why it is more helpful than harmful. For one, Naming winter storms gives a heightened awareness to the public. This is also the case when dealing with tropical cyclones. We all know the public pays a lot more attention to 40 mph Tropical Storm [Name] than it does to Tropical Depression [Number]. Winter storms are no different. They are more likely to listen if it has a name opposed to just a generic title. Naming them makes it easier to follow, and also allows it to be remembered. You're significantly more likely to remember Winter Storm Athena as opposed to 'that winter storm in late October'.


But what happens when Athena busts and the foot of snow expected for NYC turns into a cold rain, credibility becomes an issue. A tropical system is what it is, with the exception of a last minute change to track, we know what kind of weather it will bring and what kind of winds and storm surge to expect. Like I said yesterday, this is a fine line TWC is crossing and again not everyone will "know" of said named winter storm, its going to be exclusive to TWC. Also, fellow TV mets that I have consulted with at NBC affiliates said that their station will NOT adopt this naming scheme.
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
i dont't know if this has already been said, but does anyone else HATE how TWC keeps putting on these lame shows like turbine cowboys or iceburg hunters or life guard? I can barly find out the weather anymore on their tv station

Really? In that case, just tune in between 7:00-8:00 p.m. EDT and 10:00-11:00 p.m. EDT today and 1:00-2:00 a.m. EDT and 5:00 a.m. EDT - 2:00 p.m. EDT plus the aforementioned times for today, tomorrow.
Quoting Chucktown:


But what happens when Athena busts and the foot of snow expected for NYC turns into a cold rain, credibility becomes an issue. A tropical system is what it is, with the exception of a last minute change to track, we know what kind of weather it will bring and what kind of winds and storm surge to expect. Like I said yesterday, this is a fine line TWC is crossing and again not everyone will "know" of said named winter storm, its going to be exclusive to TWC. Also, fellow TV mets that I have consulted with at NBC affiliates said that their station will NOT adopt this naming scheme.

This is true most of the time, but not always. There have been storms in history that were monsters and just weakened several categories in a span of a few hours. The same goes for winter storms. While it may happen, it's not something I would get accustomed to seeing.
Quoting Chucktown:


But what happens when Athena busts and the foot of snow expected for NYC turns into a cold rain, credibility becomes an issue. A tropical system is what it is, with the exception of a last minute change to track, we know what kind of weather it will bring and what kind of winds and storm surge to expect. Like I said yesterday, this is a fine line TWC is crossing and again not everyone will "know" of said named winter storm, its going to be exclusive to TWC. Also, fellow TV mets that I have consulted with at NBC affiliates said that their station will NOT adopt this naming scheme.


This is from a Fox network but, IMO, the best local met here in the Jax area I've been following for years. His opinion on the naming of winter storms:

"Which brings me to the great announcement from the "sensational" weather network (that seems to spend a
lot of time not talking weather) that the channel will name winter storms this season. My 2 cents worth: I don't like it & will not use their naming system."
Quoting Jedkins01:
Thunderstorms seem to defy physics sometimes around Tampa Bay. I just watched an individual cell along the line as it moved in come to a completely stop just east of me, then move northeast completely against the steering flow. It completely makes no sense. It's as if that part of the line says "well I'm not going to move over his house today, but that's ok, I'll just move in the opposite direction of the steering flow".

lol forgive me for my silliness, but its stuff like this about weather that drives me nuts trying to understand.

Just speculation, but I wonder what the upper level winds were doing. Back building is well known. I think that happens when an area of divergence aloft propagates upstream. You say the storm seemed to stop which suggests some variation on back-building (side building?)

I've also seen t-storms develop new cells on the downwind (upper level) side where the general motion was perpendicular to the upper level winds. In that case individual storms were aligned roughly east-west and moving north with easterly upper level winds. I guess that was a case of side-building.

I would think that a good look at the actual clouds and how they are propagating would give insight plus some soundings of wind directions. Not sure if you are looking at the clouds or radar, but radar at times can be like watching the shadows in Plato's cave. (Ommmmm.)
I see what they did there...

TWC moved the cheese.

: )
Hey ho - looks like we're getting a SECOND wetting from Nadine, after one of its spawned lows drenched the UK just over a week ago, and now the "remnants" are poised to soak us this weekend.

There have been deaths due to Nadine. There has been property loss. Farm damage. Misery. Destruction.

So will the US "pull" this name from the Roster? Doubt it. It's only the Brits and Spaniards who've suffered after all, so who actually "cares"?

Brian
When is the next advisory coming out on Nadine?


.....snicker, coff, ack
"Achilles" is a cool Winter Storm name.

I'm gonna use for the first Se. Louisiana Snow Storm this season.

Achilles last stand ?

...Hmmmm?

Me tinks I've heard dat un befo'
I will like to ask if this huge!!! blob!! in the middle of Florida is moving South?,can't tell from the satellite,it seems it's moving toward South Florida,Thank you!.

A trof of Low pressure resides in the GOM into Fla.

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop







Quoting Hurricane1956:
I will like to ask if this huge!!! blob!! in the middle of Florida is moving South?,can't tell from the satellite,it seems it's moving toward South Florida,Thank you!.


I believe that is Zita you are talking about...
Learning to read a surface map is one of the first steps in understanding the current situations.
Evening everyone.. We've now had 41.25" of rain since about the beginning of May, talk about a very wet rainy season. The ground here is completely saturated, with a lot of standing water. We could not handle a heavy rain event any time soon....
18Z GFS SHOWS AN OMAR LIKE STORM!!!! HEADING NNE
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I believe that is Zita you are talking about...
LOL!!! yes if you want to name it Zita,don't know which way this thing is moving,it seems to me it's moving South???.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
LOL!!! yes if you want to name it Zita,don't know which way this thing is moving,it seems to me it's moving South???.


North.
Quoting biowizard:
Hey ho - looks like we're getting a SECOND wetting from Nadine, after one of its spawned lows drenched the UK just over a week ago, and now the "remnants" are poised to soak us this weekend.

There have been deaths due to Nadine. There has been property loss. Farm damage. Misery. Destruction.

So will the US "pull" this name from the Roster? Doubt it. It's only the Brits and Spaniards who've suffered after all, so who actually "cares"?

Brian


It's up to the country that suffered damage to request a name be retired. If no one requests the removal it stays.
A storm name being retired has no bearing on its impact, ..and is a moot "pernt" to many who have suffered their wrath.
Quoting CaribBoy:
18Z GFS SHOWS AN OMAR LIKE STORM!!!! HEADING NNE

It shows a weak low.

The Pup's of Hurricane Issac

2 Have found wunderful Homes, 3 more are looking for them.
I managed to make a blog update on the tropics since I found enough time to write one. However, I will not make updates almost everyday. But, I'll write them from time to time.

Long-lived Nadine finally dissipates; Oscar remains a weak tropical storm
Quoting Civicane49:
I managed to make a blog update on the tropics since I found enough time to write one. However, I will not make updates almost everyday. But, I'll write them from time to time.

Long-lived Nadine finally dissipates; Oscar remains a weak tropical storm

Good to see you Civic, I'm kinda glad that Nadine is done for good.

I'm back from drivers ed.
Quoting FtMyersgal:
middle of July here in Central Florida, PW's around 2.2 inches, a dew point of 77 and strong thunderstorms developing along the sea breezes.

Same here Jedkins01. PW 2.2 DewPoint 73 Just had a thunderstorm roll on in about 30 minutes ago


Well that's gonna change by next week. By Monday rainy season will come to a screeching halt as a cold ftont gives us more comfortable Fall weather.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Good to see you Civic, I'm kinda glad that Nadine is done for good.

I'm back from drivers ed.


I'm also glad that Nadine is gone.
192 hours on the 18z GFS:

Oscar's not the only one struggling with shear... Gaemi in the West Pac looks a little lopsided this evening:



Definitely a sign tropical season is on the decline for the year.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
192 hours on the 18z GFS:



Tropical Storm Olivia south of Mexico. I mentioned that possible development on my blog.
234. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some people, in possession of underdeveloped senses of scale, are apparently unable to distinguish between long-lasting major winter storm events that disrupt tens of millions of people across a large geographical area, and short-lived phenomena such as thunderstorms or tornadoes. Either that, or they simply can't comprehend what they read, as those differences have been outlined here and elsewhere about a hundred times in the past couple of days...

As an aside, I'm a bit taken aback at the entitlement displayed by posters who come here--to a forum provided by TWC and Dr. Masters--to lambaste TWC and Dr. Masters. (They also apparently have underdeveloped senses of irony...)


Some people, apparently are in possession of an underdeveloped understanding or a short tem memory loss for the disdain felt by a majority of professional and amateur weather geeks, nerds, and fanatics regarding the generic quality of the products and the over-abundance of hype served up by TWC.

Either that, or they simply can't comprehend what they have read right here in the comments section of this blog for the last 3-4 years.
:)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
192 hours on the 18z GFS:


Another cold shot for the northern US, EPAC TS, and nada in the Atlantic. I still think we could see 1 more storm.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OSCAR...LOCATED ABOUT 1170 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 4 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
192 hours on the 18z GFS:

Olivia in the EPAC is going to make a run at Cane status. Did the rest of the run show anything in the Caribbean?
Give me product, not gimmick. I get really tired of the gimmicks used to increase traffic/viewers. It never matters how much traffic you have. Management wants more!
Quoting weatherbro:


Well that's gonna change by next week. By Monday rainy season will come to a screeching halt as a cold ftont gives us more comfortable Fall weather.
I disagree if history has taught us something about El Nino winters, is to expect wet weather across the Southeast during winter. Remember the 2009 El Nino?
From December 11th, 2008 New Orleans

West Atlantic:

Quoting bappit:

Just speculation, but I wonder what the upper level winds were doing. Back building is well known. I think that happens when an area of divergence aloft propagates upstream. You say the storm seemed to stop which suggests some variation on back-building (side building?)

I've also seen t-storms develop new cells on the downwind (upper level) side where the general motion was perpendicular to the upper level winds. In that case individual storms were aligned roughly east-west and moving north with easterly upper level winds. I guess that was a case of side-building.

I would think that a good look at the actual clouds and how they are propagating would give insight plus some soundings of wind directions. Not sure if you are looking at the clouds or radar, but radar at times can be like watching the shadows in Plato's cave. (Ommmmm.)



Well, what you have described makes sense for discrete cells. However, the behavior I observed came from a line of thunderstorms advancing northwest along a shelf cloud outflow boundary, the line was persistently severe for a while and produced some wind damage to my east. I find it strange for one small segment to get stuck, then move northeast right before reaching me, while the rest of line just steadily plowed northwestward. The updraft must have been cutoff locally at a very sudden moment, but, it it doesn't explain the odd movement. Oh well.
To me TWC naming winter storms is even more excuse to hype up the storm and make it sound like the next Hollywood dooms day disaster movie."winter storm Athena is going to bring 50 feet of snow to the I-95 corridor".The worst hit will be from D.C to N.Y.C were snow totals will possibly be even high in isolated spots."Snow drifts can get as high as 75-90ft"."Expect a Day After Tomorrow type storm".A surge of 35 ft will inundate coastal areas".
Now I was reading some of the comments on the TWC comment page under their announcement of naming winter storms and one of the posters brought up a good point..evidently TWC didnt figure in on Insurance companies who have a higher deductible on "named" storms for damages..how true this is, Im not sure but I do know if this is the case, the insurance companies are going to love TWC if they ever get around in naming storms..
Quoting GTcooliebai:

The October 4th "EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION" from CPC and International Research Institute for Climate and Society:

"Compared to the past few months, the chance is reduced for El Niño to develop during Northern Hemisphere fall/winter 2012-13 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast). Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Nino, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak (Fig. 7). The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months."
Quoting Hurricane1956:
I will like to ask if this huge!!! blob!! in the middle of Florida is moving South?,can't tell from the satellite,it seems it's moving toward South Florida,Thank you!.



It's not a blob, its afternoon convection generated by sea breezes, although these cells are rather organized and deep, therefore a blowup of cold cloud tops on satellite. The atmosphere is unstable and very moist, also upper divergence exists aloft. It's just a very favorable atmosphere for convection. Thankfully, there no real dynamics in place so severe cells were fairly isolated.
Quoting washingtonian115:
To me TWC naming winter storms is even more excuse to hype up the storm and make it sound like the next Hollywood dooms day disaster movie."winter storm Athena is going to bring 50 feet of snow to the I-95 corridor".The worst hit will be from D.C to N.Y.C were snow totals will possibly be even high in isolated spots."Snow drifts can get as high as 75-90ft"."Expect a Day After Tomorrow type storm".A surge of 35 ft will inundate coastal areas".


the names are horrid..I would have love to been a fly on the wall at that round table discussion when they came up with those names..must have taken place at a holiday inn conference room B
Quoting ncstorm:
Now I was reading some of the comments on the TWC comment page under their announcement of naming winter storms and one of the posters brought up a good point..evidently TWC didnt figure in on Insurance companies who have a higher deductible on "named" storms for damages..how true this is, Im not sure but I do know if this is the case, the insurance companies are going to love TWC if they ever get around in naming storms..

Sounds like a lawsuit waiting to happen.
Quoting ncstorm:


the names are horrid..I would have love to been at that round table discussion when they came up with those names..must have taken place at a holiday inn conference room B
Lol.Someone must've been drunk.I just can't take the names seriously enough.As I said before they sound like names of movie characters in a Greek movie with a mythological theme..
Quoting charlottefl:
Evening everyone.. We've now had 41.25" of rain since about the beginning of May, talk about a very wet rainy season. The ground here is completely saturated, with a lot of standing water. We could not handle a heavy rain event any time soon....



Yeah rainfall total during that period is about the same up here as well. For once we can actually say we "need" a bit of dry season! lol, Anywhere there is an open field around here has been under water since Late June, heck there is a field in my neighborhood that has fish in it, and has cat tails growing in it now, lol.

We didn't get much today somehow everything avoided my place, but yesterday we had over 2 inches.


Quoting GTcooliebai:
Olivia in the EPAC is going to make a run at Cane status. Did the rest of the run show anything in the Caribbean?

Nope, nothing meaningful... None of the runs lately have shown much in that area. It's possible we're done naming storms in the Atlantic this year.
Me tinks too much thought is going into this non story.

It is what it is.

Nothing more.

Catch the wind, see us spin, sail away, leave today, way up high in the sky.
But the wind won't blow, you really shouldn't go, it only goes to show
That you will be mine, by takin' our time.

And if you say to me tomorrow, oh what fun it all would be.
Then what's to stop us, pretty baby. But What Is And What Should Never Be.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Nope, nothing meaningful... None of the runs lately have shown much in that area. It's possible we're done naming storms in the Atlantic this year.

GFS at 384hrs had a 1000mb TD or weak TS, but it is 384hrs out.
I am going to try to type in NC dialect from now on so people will know I am from NC despite my many posts about NC or even my username states NC in it..
I miss them calling those sub thingee's Neutercane's.

Subject: A18) What is a neutercane?

Contributed by Neal Dorst

A neutercane is a small (meso-)scale (< 100 miles in diameter) low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical cyclone and mid-latitude or extratropical cyclone. A subclass of sub-tropical cyclone, neutercanes are distinguished by their small size and their origination, sometimes forming within mesoscale convective complexes.

The term was coined by Robert Bundgaard, after he participated in a research flight in the early 1970's. He witnessed a small cyclonic circulation over land, which appeared to have both tropical and extratropical characteristics. He used the term in later discussions with Dr. Bob Simpson, then director of the National Hurricane Center. 'Neutercane' was meant to synthesize the word 'neutral' and 'hurricane' to imply a hurricane-like vortex which was midway between tropical and extratropical.

Dr. Simpson observed similar circulations on geostationary satellite loops, and conducted an investigation with hurricane researcher Banner Miller. He presented a talk on them at the 8th AMS Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology in 1973. During the 1972 hurricane season, Simpson inaugurated use of the term in official bulletins, labeling the second (Bravo) and third (Charlie) subtropical cyclones observed that year as Neutercanes. (Neutercane Bravo transformed into Hurricane Betty.)

However, objections in the press to the term as possibly sexist led to NOAA management discouraging use of the term, and ordering Simpson to cease use of any further Government resources in conducting research on the phenomenon.
From then on, the term "Sub-tropical Cyclone" was used for all such systems. However, the term entered into several dictionaries, including the AMS Glossary of Meteorology (which misidentifies them as "large"), and has been used in the scientific literature.

References
Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., Feb. 1973, Vo. 54 No. 2, p. 153
Glossary of Meteorology 2nd edition, 2000, (AMS, Boston), p. 522
Weatherwise, Sept.-Oct. 2005, Vo. 58 No. 5, p. 60


Subtropical Storm Andrea in 2007

260. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.Someone must've been drunk.I just can't take the names seriously enough.As I said before they sound like names of movie characters in a Greek movie with a mythological theme..


Why does it have to be a movie? They are ancient Greek gods names...
Quoting JLPR2:


Why does it have to be a movie? They are ancient Greek gods names...


not all of them..I know Caesar wasnt a greek god and I cant remember the list right off but Im sure there were more on there who werent..
Maybe someone needs to open their own blog to expound more eloquently their feeling's, that seem to spill out into here like a tipped over bowl of cheerio's.

: )
Quoting ncstorm:
I am going to try to type in NC dialect from now on so people will know I am from NC despite my many posts about NC or even my username states NC in it..

Wait you're in NC, jk. You have given out plenty of signals saying you are in NC.
Is dat North of Southern Carolina?
I'm not going to say the tropics are closed for business as that will be foolish.But with the models showing stronger troughs getting something named down in the caribbean seems like it isn't going to be easy.
266. JLPR2
Quoting ncstorm:


not all of them..I know Caesar wasnt a greek god and I cant remember the list right off but Im sure there were more on there who werent..


Not a name, it is a tittle, the Ceasar was the governor of the republic of Rome.

But yes, there are like 5 that aren't Greek/Roman.
What matters is what something is, not what it is called.

Origin

From Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet, 1600:

JULIET:
      'Tis but thy name that is my enemy;
      Thou art thyself, though not a Montague.
      What's Montague? it is nor hand, nor foot,
      Nor arm, nor face, nor any other part
      Belonging to a man. O, be some other name!
      What's in a name? that which we call a rose
      By any other name would smell as sweet;
      So Romeo would, were he not Romeo call'd,
      Retain that dear perfection which he owes
      Without that title. Romeo, doff thy name,
      And for that name which is no part of thee
      Take all myself.

A story, much favoured by tour guides, and as such highly suspect, is that in this line Shakespeare was also making a joke at the expense of the Rose Theatre. The Rose was a local rival to his Globe Theatre and is reputed to have had less than effective sanitary arrangements. The story goes that this was a coy joke about the smell. This certainly has the whiff of folk etymology about it, but it might just be true.


: ) CRS
Quoting JLPR2:


Why does it have to be a movie? They are ancient Greek gods names...
Either way there all horrid to me.
00z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100500, , BEST, 0, 216N, 407W, 40, 1000, TS
Quoting washingtonian115:
Either way there all horrid to me.



Maybe write a personal blog about it then?

You have done 3, why not aim high and go fo 4 ?

I am guessing that it is a slow weather day, since we are discussing naming winter storms...
Oscar is a highly sheared tropical storm.

274. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
Either way there all horrid to me.


I like some of the greek myth names, they just feel mighty to me, but others like Eurydice, Anticlea and Oeagrus, to name a few, hurt my eyes. :\

Would love to see hurricane Poseidon. XD
I like "Frosty" for a Winter Storm myself.

But then again I still use Classic-Wu as well.

I'm so retro I guess.
Quoting JLPR2:


I like some of them, they just feel mighty to me, but others like Eurydice, Anticlea and Oeagrus, to name a few, hurt my eyes. :\

Would love to see hurricane Poseidon. XD


They are saving Poseidon for when they start naming Tsunami's.
Quoting Patrap:



Maybe write a personal blog about it then?

You have done 3, why not aim high and go fo 4 ?

So I can't express my opinion on then?.Maybe I'm to lazy to write a blog.Maybe my blog writing days are over.The names aren't even official.Their from a station that cares more about ratings than actual science...
You've expressed your opinion on them 47 times in 2 days so we er, get yer drift chica.

: )

Oh, that's wonderful, whoa
Whoa
Alright, oh, now, that's wonderful

When ya hear me moanin' and groanin', baby
You know it hurts me deep down inside
Oh, when ya hear me moanin' and groanin', babe
Y-you know it hurts me deep down inside
Oh, a-when you hear me holler, baby
You know you're my one desire, yes, you are, alright
Quoting Patrap:
You've expressed your opinion on them 47 times in 2 days so we er, get yer drift chica.

: )
Yes and so have other bloggers several times :).Just like the ones who keep writing how they raise awareness several times...

And I know your slyly insulting me without trying to be direct about it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So I can't express my opinion on then?.Maybe I'm to lazy to write a blog.Maybe my blog writing days are over.The names aren't even official.Their from a station that cares more about ratings than actual science...


Wash..just post videos and song lyrics to showcase your blog writing skills..
O.yeah..

U betcha


Hurricane Preparation 2012



159HR
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

Good nite guys..talk to yall to'mrr!
Quoting Patrap:
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

RIP John Hope...I loved his coverage on Andrew and Lenny just to name a few of them.
Ahhh, John Hope..RIP sir, you are missed.
I'm off as well since I can't express my opinion(also I'm not one one of the populars/respected bloggers) on here since TWC have now become a part of the site and insulting them seems like a crime....Perhaps people think TWC will notice them and get a segment on the channel in hopes of getting famous from a blog.Any way good evening.Cheers.
Lighten up Francis,,if we talking about you, we usually are jus ribbing a tad.

And if we talking about ya, we most likely like your words and style,

Have a Fresca, as we dont recall anyone saying you cant express your opine.


That's your words,not anyone's here Darling.

Its a Blog, not a way of life that leads to redemption.
I seriously doubt my figure would fit on TWC camera format.

Plus, we've already got a featured blog here with a Pay Pal Button to help others in times of disaster.

Maybe check it out one day in between F5 tweeks.

: )


Portlight Disaster Relief
Quoting Patrap:
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

I watched this live in 1992!
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah rainfall total during that period is about the same up here as well. For once we can actually say we "need" a bit of dry season! lol, Anywhere there is an open field around here has been under water since Late June, heck there is a field in my neighborhood that has fish in it, and has cat tails growing in it now, lol.

We didn't get much today somehow everything avoided my place, but yesterday we had over 2 inches.


this is the first time I've ever said something like this, but I am looking forward to the dry season myself!
I knew it felt wicked hot today. The dew point got up to 82 today....
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
159HR

snow
Quoting Patrap:
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

When men were men. When it was a game. Oh yeah, has TWC named the winter storm in Minnesota tonight? Winter Storm Big Moishe?
Winter Storm Vito? Cant wait to find out what it will be. Yecccccchhhhh!!!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
192 hours on the 18z GFS:


snow
I had some difficulty in Northern NJ this morning driving through Small Area of Fog Freddie.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Would TWC take Alaska storms into consideration (since AK is part of USA)...
right now they're getting hit by a big one!!!

no ATHENA either? lol

if we pay attention to AK storms like we do nor easters i would hate to think what would happen. as for the pathetic naming thing, we would be at z by august
Quoting goalexgo:
I had some difficulty in Northern NJ this morning driving through Small Area of Fog Freddie.
Whenever I used to drive in Jersey I'd be on the lookout for ribbets.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
9:00 AM JST October 5 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near The Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.5N 144.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 15.6N 142.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Marianas Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (T1220)
9:00 AM JST October 5 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gaemi (994 hPa) located at 14.5N 116.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.1N 113.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 13.5N 109.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 113.4N 105.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Cambodia
Quoting goalexgo:
I had some difficulty in Northern NJ this morning driving through Small Area of Fog Freddie.


we also had fog here in upstate CT since last night...
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Whenever I used to drive in Jersey I'd be on the lookout for ribbets.

I brake for butterflies.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

if we pay attention to AK storms like we do nor easters i would hate to think what would happen. as for the pathetic naming thing, we would be at z by august


honestly I don't know...I expect to read a valid and reasonable explanation from TWC tomorrow in the chat...
Accuweather does not like at all this naming thing
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Accuweather does not like at all this naming thing

Prolly cuz they didn't think of it first :-)
Quoting Chicklit:

Prolly cuz they didn't think of it first :-)


lol
This blog is about as exciting as a well.......
Cold front passed through Central Illinois around 3 hours or so ago dropping the temp from 77 degrees down to 50 degrees over about an hour !! quite a drop !!

Torrential rains over a 30 minute period dropped .8 inches .. Very welcomed by everyone in the area ..
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Whenever I used to drive in Jersey I'd be on the lookout for ribbets.


An, New Jersey. I spent a week there one night.
Quoting whitewabit:
Cold front passed through Central Illinois around 3 hours or so ago dropping the temp from 77 degrees down to 50 degrees over about an hour !! quite a drop !!

Torrential rains over a 30 minute period dropped .8 inches .. Very welcomed by everyone in the area ..

I can see the heavy rain coming on my radar and that temperature drop will be nice. As for my allergies/sinuses and my breathing things will go even further downhill.
Maliksi is a naked swirl and so is Gaemi in the epac, Oscar remains sheared. All the active tropical cyclones in the world are either turning post-tropical or are sheared.
Quoting Grothar:


An, New Jersey. I spent a week there one night.

roflmho
Quoting Grothar:


An, New Jersey. I spent a week there one night.
You know you're being silly and it's really Philly.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Maliksi is a naked swirl and so is Gaemi in the epac, Oscar remains sheared. All the active tropical cyclones in the world are either turning post-tropical or are sheared.

Time to catch up on your reading?
goodnight.
Tropical Storm Oscar:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 40.2W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012

OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING. THE LARGE SYSTEM HAS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...HAS FORMED A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS HAD A SIZABLE AREA OF WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT ABOUT 90 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT
AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT. DESPITE OSCAR MOVING
FASTER OVER WARM WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO MODERATE OR STRONG SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
SAME TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT
24H AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/10 KT. THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOON
TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SHOULD ABSORB OSCAR IN ABOUT A DAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION.

STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO
FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting Chicklit:

Time to catch up on your reading?
goodnight.

Goodnight Chicklit, I'm doing some homework right now.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued an* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
eastern Volusia County in Florida... this includes the cities of... New Smyrna Beach... Port Orange... Ponce Inlet... Ormond Beach... Holly Hill... Edgewater... Daytona Beach...

* until midnight EDT.

* At 1030 PM EDT... Weather Service Doppler radar indicated very heavy rain along coastal Volusia County in slow moving storms. A additional rain amounts of one to two inshes is possible through midnight.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Motorists should deactivate cruise control and slow down in heavy rainfall to reduce the risk of hydroplaning. Leave safe distance between other vehicles.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely.


Lat... Lon 2931 8104 2922 8099 2916 8097 2910 8092
2908 8093 2907 8090 2903 8088 2884 8076
2884 8078 2885 8079 2885 8081 2883 8081
2880 8089 2925 8116

darn hope this doesn't mean my tennis courts are washed out for my 8 a.m. match...it's been raining pretty hard. Quite a lot for 20% chance. Guess we got it all.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Goodnight Chicklit, I'm doing some homework right now.

good boy.
...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY...
11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 4
Location: 22.0°N 40.2°W
Moving: NE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting CosmicEvents:
You know you're being silly and it's really Philly.


Philadelphia, now that rings a bell.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
What matters is what something is, not what it is called.

Origin

From Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet, 1600:

JULIET:
      'Tis but thy name that is my enemy;
      Thou art thyself, though not a Montague.
      What's Montague? it is nor hand, nor foot,
      Nor arm, nor face, nor any other part
      Belonging to a man. O, be some other name!
      What's in a name? that which we call a rose
      By any other name would smell as sweet;
      So Romeo would, were he not Romeo call'd,
      Retain that dear perfection which he owes
      Without that title. Romeo, doff thy name,
      And for that name which is no part of thee
      Take all myself.

A story, much favoured by tour guides, and as such highly suspect, is that in this line Shakespeare was also making a joke at the expense of the Rose Theatre. The Rose was a local rival to his Globe Theatre and is reputed to have had less than effective sanitary arrangements. The story goes that this was a coy joke about the smell. This certainly has the whiff of folk etymology about it, but it might just be true.


: ) CRS

I believe Julliet is used in one of the list of names in the Eastern Pacific. I wonder what year we will see her?
Quoting Grothar:


Philadelphia, now that rings a bell.
Allright, I give up before something cracks. You win.
Anyone notice the 1008 low north of hispanola on Sunday on the NAM?
331. BtnTx
Quoting Grothar:


Philadelphia, now that rings a bell.
I could use a Philly Cheesesteak sandwich about now!
332. N3EG
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
CQ

QRZ?
Quoting BtnTx:
I could use a Philly Cheesesteak sandwich about now!


Don't make me hungry
334. BDAwx
there is a subjective line between hyping a storm and raising awareness by stressing its potential impacts.
Quoting N3EG:

QRZ?


R2D2.
Quoting Grothar:


Philadelphia, now that rings a bell.


That is quite a crack.

Ooooops! Cosmic saw it first! I thought I had a crack at it.
Quoting Grothar:


R2D2.


BR-549

Ask for Jr.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is quite a crack.


Ask not for whom the bell tolls...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


BR-549

Ask for Jr.


Suppose Minnie Pearl answers?
Oscar keeps getting stronger imagine if he becomes a hurricane. lol the blog would be crazy.
Quoting allancalderini:
Oscar keeps getting stronger imagine if he becomes a hurricane. lol the blog would be crazy.

Nah he won't become a hurricane, he will get absorbed into a front. Oscar will be ate by that front tomorrow.
Quoting allancalderini:
Oscar keeps getting stronger imagine if he becomes a hurricane. lol the blog would be crazy.


It looks good.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Nah he won't become a hurricane, he will get absorbed into a front. Oscar will be ate by that front tomorrow.
I say he might peak at 60 even though I think this is its peak.
Quoting wxchaser97:
...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY...
11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 4
Location: 22.0°N 40.2°W
Moving: NE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
But it sure has lots of shear convection ,,good thing is not near land.....
Quoting Grothar:


It looks good.


I spy with my little eye Oscar's center, oh wait never mind I can't even see it.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I spy with my little eye Oscar's center, oh wait never mind I can't even see it.


I spy someone who should be finishing their homework. :)
Quoting allancalderini:
I say he might peak at 60 even though I think this is its peak.

I think 50mph is Oscar's peak.

Quoting HuracanTaino:
But it sure has lots of shear convection ,,good thing is not near land.....

If he hit land some areas would still receive a good amount to rain and wind, luckily he is out to sea.
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Take a look interesting forecast, by weatherPR...
Quoting Grothar:


I spy someone who should be finishing their homework. :)

Can you give me a hint to who it is? I was too busy working on homework;)
Quoting Patrap:
TWC back in da day.

When the Format was young but way better than today.

I remember so well that day,watching the Weather Channel and at the same time trying keep updated with the 1st Gulf War... I admired John Hope so much...RIP
Did the season ACE just exceed 100?
Is there any snow expected in Denver in the next week?

Somebody today told me there was a storm coming there, but I took a quick look at the GFS and didn't see anything.

Thanks in advance to anyone who might reply.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Can you give me a hint to who it is? I was too busy working on homework;)


:)
Quoting Terradad:
Is there any snow expected in Denver in the next week?

Somebody today told me there was a storm coming there, but I took a quick look at the GFS and didn't see anything.

Thanks in advance to anyone who might reply.

There is a slight chance of non-accumulating rain/snow tomorrow night and Saturday, nothing major.
Quoting 12george1:
Did the season ACE just exceed 100?


It's up to 103.955 for the North Atlantic.
Quoting 12george1:
Did the season ACE just exceed 100?


Yep.

North Atlantic
103.955
blog update






Quoting PRweathercenter:
blog update








THE ABC ISLANDS AREA WILL PROBABLY BECOME INTERESTING! THANKS FOR THE UPDATE.
Quoting Grothar:


Suppose Minnie Pearl answers?


Just hope you do not get Lilly Tomlin to answer!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
12:00 PM JST October 5 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near The Marianas

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.5N 144.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 15.2N 142.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Marianas Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (T1220)
12:00 PM JST October 5 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gaemi (994 hPa) located at 14.5N 116.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.0N 112.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 13.5N 109.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 113.4N 105.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Cambodia
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
this is the first time I've ever said something like this, but I am looking forward to the dry season myself!


haha me too! Actually though, I'll always miss the showers and thunderstorms, but I do like the change in seasons regarding temperatures. It's nice to know cooler refreshing air is coming. I will always miss the rainy season regardless though. I wish most of Florida was higher elevation like much of Central America which is mostly cool despite the tropical region because of high terrain. I've visited there during the heart of the rainy season more than once. It feels like a cool fall breeze in Florida but yet huge tropical down pours and thunderstorms developed everyday. They get some very impressive thunderstorms down there at times. I experienced what had to be close to hurricane force wind gusts and an incredible light show during the night.
00GFS still shows the PR storm
1004MB in the last frame...
OOps sorry it's 1002MB

Quoting CaribBoy:
00GFS still shows the PR storm


lol, are you honestly getting excited over a weak area of low pressure? It has one really broad closed isobar. That's it. Nothing remotely indicative of a tropical cyclone.
Quoting Terradad:
Is there any snow expected in Denver in the next week?

Somebody today told me there was a storm coming there, but I took a quick look at the GFS and didn't see anything.

Thanks in advance to anyone who might reply.


Uh, no. 7-day forecast shows nothing.
Quoting KoritheMan:


lol, are you honestly getting excited over a weak area of low pressure? It has one really broad closed isobar. That's it. Nothing remotely indicative of a tropical cyclone.
Really Cody??? please you know he wants rain don`t shatter his dream.
Quoting allancalderini:
Really Cody??? please you know he wants rain don`t shatter his dream.


He wants a hurricane. Which I'm still okay with, but not at the expense of logic and rationality. Have you seen some of his posts? As bad as JFV in terms of wishing.
Quoting KoritheMan:


He wants a hurricane. Which I'm still okay with, but not at the expense of logic and rationality. Have you seen some of his posts? As bad as JFV in terms of wishing.
I know I put him on ignore sometime but then I remember that they are people like this everywhere.anyways I think the day when he receives a hurricane he would change its wish and its mind.being in a hurricane its not funny.I understand he needs rain I also need it but the only thing he need is to wait.waiting is a virtue.
In honor of Nadine's departure I should have found the time to post this earlier - had too much work to do. This has been running through my head ever since her first death. :P (Much better sound live / on their album. fwiw)


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (T1220)
15:00 PM JST October 5 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gaemi (996 hPa) located at 14.6N 115.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 13.9N 111.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 13.7N 107.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 13.4N 104.8E - Tropical Depression Overland Cambodia
374. VR46L
Good Morning
Read back last nights part of the blog...

Comment 278
I am shocked that this comment is still here , I found it rather sexist and demeaning .The lady that the comment appeared to be aimed at, is one of the most knowledgeable witty minds on this forum . refering to someone as chica or darling when you are annoyed at them is sinister to put it mildly .. and the offer of a fresca on this forum is usually a sinister threat. When I see something like this I will say something about it..And She also said relatively little on the major debate issue of the last few days, I admit ,I said way way more.

Anyways....
Doubt Oscar will be tropical by tonight, looks like it will caught by the tail of the front within the next day
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 38.9W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012

OSCAR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.
DUE TO CONTINUED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE OSCAR IS ABSORBED BY AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OSCAR IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OSCAR
SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER
SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO
FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 23.0N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 25.5N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


honestly I don't know...I expect to read a valid and reasonable explanation from TWC tomorrow in the chat...

yup
Good Morning Folks! looks like dry weather comes Monday...
384HR on the 6Z GFS for FL That = :)
WOW 00Z GFS at 384HR Snow in NC!!
Miami NWS Disco

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF BERMUDA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND...AND BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS CUBA
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FROM THE NORTH. THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUING TO BRING IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTH.

This is the NCEP global temperature anomalies map. It's interesting to note that the deepest negative anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere is the relatively smallish one parked over the Northwest/North Central U.S.; that is, of course, the cause of the snow and abnormal cold in the area. But that's expected to moderate into next week, with above-normal temperatures for most of the western two-thirds of the country (Fargo, for instance, is forecast to be back into the 60s by next weekend). It makes one wonder how long it will be until a real widespread winter storm swoops down across the U.S. Being October and all, it's only a matter of time...

NCEP
Quoting N3EG:

QRZ?

73 de N1XTV
Quoting Neapolitan:
This is the NCEP global temperature anomalies map. It's interesting to note that the deepest negative anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere is the relatively smallish one parked over the Northwest/North Central U.S.; that is, of course, the cause of the snow and abnormal cold in the area. But that's expected to moderate into next week, with above-normal temperatures for most of the western two-thirds of the country (Fargo, for instance, is forecast to be back into the 60s by next weekend). It makes one wonder how long it will be until a real widespread winter storm swoops down across the U.S. Being October and all, it's only a matter of time...

NCEP

Map includes surface temperatures only. But still noteworthy, and understand your reason behind posting this. It's pretty obvious.
ND precip map from yesterday. Observed precip.

NWS TAMPA BAY AREA

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
A GOOD EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...EXPECT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE AREA WAS
WORKED OVER PRETTY GOOD YESTERDAY AND THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD AND FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

After yesterday afternoon's T storms our 3 day rain total here in Madeira Beach is about 3", not too shabby :) The air this morning felt so clean .
Edit: Ooops, good morning.


LONG LIVED NADINE...RIP...'til 2018
Sept Co2 is in

391.07ppm


co2now.org






Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning
Read back last nights part of the blog...

Comment 278
I am shocked that this comment is still here , I found it rather sexist and demeaning .The lady that the comment appeared to be aimed at, is one of the most knowledgeable witty minds on this forum . refering to someone as chica or darling when you are annoyed at them is sinister to put it mildly .. and the offer of a fresca on this forum is usually a sinister threat. When I see something like this I will say something about it..And She also said relatively little on the major debate issue of the last few days, I admit ,I said way way more.

Anyways....
Doubt Oscar will be tropical by tonight, looks like it will caught by the tail of the front within the next day


The female version of the famous "sport", intentional put downs with a little fresca sugar coating. We all have a handle and a name we should be referred to as..
It is a beautiful morning with a potential for some strong thunderstorms with the collision of the east/west seabreeze this afternoon in Florida.
Good morning/evening, everyone. I'm enjoying a day off for rodeo/fair day here. Wish it would be the beautiful 70's they are forecasting for Sunday.
Quoting Jedkins01:


haha me too! Actually though, I'll always miss the showers and thunderstorms, but I do like the change in seasons regarding temperatures. It's nice to know cooler refreshing air is coming. I will always miss the rainy season regardless though. I wish most of Florida was higher elevation like much of Central America which is mostly cool despite the tropical region because of high terrain. I've visited there during the heart of the rainy season more than once. It feels like a cool fall breeze in Florida but yet huge tropical down pours and thunderstorms developed everyday. They get some very impressive thunderstorms down there at times. I experienced what had to be close to hurricane force wind gusts and an incredible light show during the night.
I haven't had a chance to visit Central America for more than a couple days on various cruises...

As for the change in seasons here, I mostly appreciate looking at wv and seeing huge troughs spill down from the north.
..Mamma's alright, Daddy's alright, they jus seem a lil weird...





Oscar is looking mmmm ok


Possible new TC in the EPac


Possible TC developing in the Central WPAC.


An interesting feature developing in the BoB.


The ITCZ is dipping quiet low into the SPAC.
To washingtonian115


I apologize if you found my comment to you offensive.

Sometimes my Humor dosen't come across as I expect.

Thats a flaw in my character,

My only intent was to spur you to expound your voice in a personal blog as I find your style to be a good one here.

Please accept my heartfelt apology and Have a good day here today.

Patrick
Quoting Patrap:
To washingtonian115


I apologize if you found my comment to you offensive.

Sometimes my Humor dosen't come across as I expect.

Thats a flaw in my character,

My only intent was to spur you to expound your voice in a personal blog as I find your style to be a good one here.

Please accept my heartfelt apology and Have a good day here today.

Patrick
I excpet your apology Pat.We're all long time members here and we should be able to put our pettiness behind us and move on like mature adults.The newer members see us as a example and what good examples would we be arguing with each other on here?.I'm glad we can get pass this.
no ones know for sure but if we have a mild winter might be a bad outbreak of west nile virus e.cen florida
404. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:
OOps sorry it's 1002MB



Deep into fantasy land, but still interesting.
would TWC eventually have something in their winter page like this..???

THE WEATHER CHANNEL IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WINTER STORM EUCLID...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO, IL.

A WINTER STORM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA CITY...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY ON WINTER STORM FREYR. THIS LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A WINTER STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD


lol
there will be more than 100 people in that chat..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
there will be more than 100 people in that chat..

When, not now. lol
408. MTWX
Quoting AussieStorm:


How about you to have few of these together.


What??!! They make PEACH Fresca??!!?? Gotta find me some of that!
Good morning...almost all of the GFS Ensemble members are showing some type of development in the Caribbean at the end of the run. Link
Surprised the GFS isn't showing anything substantial in the Caribbean of Gulf of Mexico with these pressure falls by the end of the run.

To far out, but neat to look at.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Surprised the GFS isn't showing anything substantial in the Caribbean of Gulf of Mexico with these pressure falls by the end of the run.


isn't that just showing -2mb from the mean average?
Quoting hydrus:
To far out, but neat to look at.

nice cold front
Quoting AussieStorm:

nice cold front
Nice enough to kill me plants..;O
Quoting hydrus:
Nice enough to kill me plants..;O

We had a very nice on come through Sydney today, dropped the temps from 34C to 21C in just over 30mins.
Quoting AussieStorm:

We had a very nice on come through Sydney today, dropped the temps from 34C to 21C in just over 30mins.
There forecasting the first widespread frost for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this Sunday evening and Columbus Day. I will try to save some of the plants as this is about three weeks earlier than average. The extended outlook actually shows a cold and wet winter for us, which would be the complete opposite of last years virtual non winter. There have been fall seasons that were almost as cold as the Winter of 2011-12 in our region.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting AussieStorm:

isn't that just showing -2mb from the mean average?

Yes, but my point is that pressure are going to be falling within a large region during the middle of October. Classic development set-up if this were to pan out.
Did someone say West Nile virus?