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Major U.S. Winter Storms to get names

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on October 02, 2012

October is here, and its time to start thinking about how the coming winter's storm might compare to mighty blizzards of years past. Do you remember the North American blizzard of February 4, 2010? No? Well, do you remember Snowmageddon, the massive February 2010 Nor'easter that dumped up to 38" of snow in the mid-Atlantic, and killed 41 people? The two storms are the same, but having a simple name for the snowstorm like "Snowmageddon" helps us identify and remember the impacts of the storm. Naming a major winter storm makes even more sense if it is done before the storm hits, to aid in raising awareness of the storm, and to reduce the risks the public faces. That's exactly what The Weather Channel is going to do for the U.S. this winter, they announced in a press release today. A group of senior meteorologists at The Weather Channel chose 26 names for the upcoming winter of 2012 - 2013. The only criteria was to select names that are not and have never been on any of the hurricane lists produced by the National Hurricane Center or National Weather Service. Naming of a winter storm will occur no earlier than three days prior to it hitting, to ensure there is strong confidence that the system could have significant impact on large populations. There is no national center for monitoring winter storms like we have for hurricanes with the National Hurricane Center, so I think it makes sense for The Weather Channel to take this step.


Figure 1. Snowmageddon in Maryland: February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

U.S. winter storm names for winter of 2012 - 2013
Athena -- The Greek goddess of wisdom, courage, inspirations, justice, mathematics and all things wonderful

Brutus -- Roman Senator and best known assassin of Julius
Caesar -- Title used by Roman and Byzantine Emperors 

Draco -- The first legislator of Athens in Ancient
Euclid -- A mathematician in Ancient Greece, the Father of Geometry
Freyr -- A Norse god associated with fair weather, among other things

Gandolf -- A character in a 1896 fantasy novel in a pseudo-medieval countryside

Helen – In Greek mythology, Helen of Troy was the daughter of Zeus

Iago -- Enemy of Othello in Shakespeare’s play, Othello

Jove -- The English name for Jupiter, the Roman god of light and sky.

Kahn -- Mongolian conqueror and emperor of the Mongol Empire

Luna -- The divine embodiment of the moon in Roman mythology

Magnus -- The Father of Europe, Charlemagne the Great, in Latin: Carolus Magnus 

Nemo -- A Greek boy’s name meaning “from the valley”, means “nobody” in Latin 

Orko -- The thunder god in Basque mythology

Plato -- Greek philosopher and mathematician, who was named by his wrestling coach

Q -- The Broadway Express subway line in New York City

Rocky -- A single mountain in the Rockies

Saturn -- Roman god of time, among other things who had a planet named after him

Triton -- In Greek mythology, the messenger of the deep sea, son of Poseidon

Ukko -- In Finnish mythology, the god of the sky and weather

Virgil -- One of ancient Rome’s greatest poets

Walda -- Name from Old German meaning “ruler”

Xerxes -- The fourth king of the Persian Achaemenid Empire, Xerxes the Great

Yogi -- People who do yoga

Zeus -- In Greek mythology, the supreme ruler of Mount Olympus and the gods who lived there

I expect that this year The Weather Channel will be pretty conservative about assigning names, and only the very strongest winter storms will get named. For the eastern 2/3 of the country, storms that receive a ranking of "notable" or higher on NOAA's Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) or Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) are the only ones fairly certain to get named this winter. We only had one such storm during the winter of 2011 - 2012 (Snowtober, on October 29 - 31, 2011.) Thus, if we have another wimpy winter like last winter, we probably won't get to see the Wrath of Khan.

Naming of Winter Storms in Europe
Various organizations in Europe have been naming their winter storms since 1954, and the public has reacted positively to this practice. The names given by the Free University of Berlin are the most widely used, and have been in existence since 1954. Their meteorologists traditionally name all lows and highs that influence the Central European weather. In November 2002, the Free University began an Adopt-a-Vortex scheme, which allows anyone to buy a storm name. The money raised is used by the meteorology department to maintain weather observations at the university. Over 1,800 participants from 15 European countries plus Brazil, Japan and the United States have participated. So far in 2012, 90 European low pressure systems have been given names.


Figure 2. A huge wave from Winter Storm Klaus rolls into Santander, Spain, in this wunderphoto taken by wunderphotographer lunada on January 24, 2009. Klaus had a central pressure of 967 mb at its peak on the morning of January 24, and brought sustained winds of 59 mph, gusting to 81 mph, to Santander. Wind gusts as high as 124 mph (199 km/hr) occurred along the northern coast of Spain, and the storm killed at least 26 people in Spain, France, and Italy.

Naming of Lake Effect Winter Storms by NWS Buffalo
Tom Niziol, The Weather Channel's winter storm expert, was meteorologist-in-charge of the Buffalo, New York NWS office until January 2012. He tells me that for over ten years, the Buffalo NWS has been naming lake-effect storms. This was done only after the event occurred, to avoid any confusion, but was very popular with users. The names were chosen on a yearly basis by having the office staff vote for one of several themes--such as insects, heavenly bodies, famous scientists, minerals, Native American tribes, etc. Last winter, eight storms were named after breeds of cows (?!), as seen at the NWS Buffalo Lake Effect web page. I was not asked to contribute to this year's list of U.S. winter storms, but will lobby for next year's list of names to be taken from famous monsters--Rodan, Ghidorah, Nessie, Kong, Bunnicula, etc.


Figure 3. The most significant lake-effect snow storm of the winter of 2011 - 2012 was named Lake Effect Storm Evolene by the NWS office in Buffalo, New York. Image credit: NWS Buffalo Lake Effect web page.

Nadine
The Methuselah of Atlantic tropical storms, Tropical Storm Nadine, is slowly weakening over cool 22 - 24°C waters. Nadine will have accumulated 20 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Wind shear will rise to 30 knots and ocean temperatures will drop to 20°C by Thursday, which should cause Nadine to transition to an extratropical storm as it passes by the northern Azores Islands on Thursday and Friday.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a large area of heavy thunderstorms that is growing more organized. The storm is located about 925 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters
Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow.
Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow.
Hubby tried to use the snow-blower to clear the snow, unfortunately for him the snow is too deep for the snow-blower. The shovel and his arms will have to do the job.
Blizzard 2010
Blizzard  2010

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting washingtonian115:
Snowmeggadon was to hard for me to remember all though I do remember it snowing for at least 24+ hours and about 30" of snow in my yard...Then about 4 days after another storm came and dumped another 13"+ in my yard leaving us with 4- 5 feet of snow with 7-8 foot drifts and lots and lots of advil and heating/cooling pads...

Other notable recent snow events
Minneapolis Metrodome collapse snowstorm-Dec 17, 2010
Snowcopalypse- Dec 21, 2009
Snowpril- April 24, 2012
Atlanta Snowstorm- Jan, 10, 2011
Dallas Snowstorm- Feb 11, 2010
South Texas White Christmas Storm- Dec 24, 2004
Southwest Ohio Heavy Snow Dec 24, 2004
Does anyone think these events would have met criteria to be named?
502. j2008
Quoting wxchaser97:

I would also like to see a graphic for the criteria of naming winter storms. I will be making my own over the next few days but this is their thing. 2012-2013 winter shall be an interesting one.
Yea definatly, I'm thinking any low pressure area that creates winter weather (for different regions winter weather is different)with a category system for people so they know how best to prepare and what to expect.
I just hope we have a Winter in Alabama this year..been a few since it got cold ,and the bugs and weeds and snakes are taking over..
504. beell
Quoting Skyepony:


Your always welcome beell..

Seems like a pretty anti-spam rule in play though. I didn't get it with the first link broke. The efficient heat pump, made me think of the efficient water pumps from earlier & threw me. Obscure reference sounds about right.



Thanks, Skye.
For true, lol.

The use of "weather" to drive advertising and generate revenue is nothing new. Gotta give TWC credit for their creativity. IMO, of course.

anti-spam indeed!

: - )
505. j2008
Quoting lobdelse81:

Other notable recent snow events
Minneapolis Metrodome collapse snowstorm-Dec 17, 2010
Snowcopalypse- Dec 21, 2009
Snowpril- April 24, 2012
Atlanta Snowstorm- Jan, 10, 2011
Dallas Snowstorm- Feb 11, 2010
South Texas White Christmas Storm- Dec 24, 2004
Southwest Ohio Heavy Snow Dec 24, 2004
Does anyone think these events would have met criteria to be named?
Yes technically most if not all would be named since they were major winter storms impacting a major population area.
Quoting Skyepony:


Your always welcome beell..

Seems like a pretty anti-spam rule in play though. I didn't get it with the first link broke. The efficient heat pump, made me think of the efficient water pumps from earlier & threw me. Obscure reference sounds about right.

Partial 96L TRMM
Skye the truth is admin has no sense of the history of this place. I doubt every comment beell had removed had a link that could be interpreted as spam. Gets tiresome. I laid off for several weeks after getting comments removed for no apparent reason other than they did not agree with the opinion du jour held by many of the bloggers here. Been accused of being mean-spirited (add: and malicious) in trying to point out permafrost location. lol. A lot of the well-informed, longtime bloggers you and I know well rarely, if ever, post any more. Admin has a heavy-handed, non-uniform approach. If this comment, or any other fairly spoken words of mine disappear from this forum again, I'm gone. For good.
Quoting auburn:
I just hope we have a Winter in Alabama this year..been a few since it got cold ,and the bugs and weeds and snakes are taking over..

I'm pretty sure you'll get one, we down here haven't had a summer in 2 years and this one is being predicted to be a very long hot one.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I've never even seen the word disambiguation used. Congrats, I guess, but I think the NWS does a fine job already and the media communicates it just fine on winter weather probabilities. I can only see some addition like this as adding to any disambiguation:>)


I avoid 6 syllable words unless I want to convey a degree of verisimilitude. It can become an indefatigable chore. One must be discriminatory in their use to avoid the meaning of the sentence becoming incomprehensible.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Skye the truth is admin has no sense of the history of this place. I doubt every comment beell had removed had a link that could be interpreted as spam. Gets tiresome. I laid off for several weeks after getting comments removed for no apparent reason other than they did not agree with the opinion du jour held by many of the bloggers here. Been accused of being mean-spirited in trying to point out permafrost location. lol. A lot of the well-informed longtime bloggers you and I know well rarely, if ever, post any more. Admin has a heavy-handed, non-uniform approach. If this comment, or any other fairly spoken words of mine disappear from this forum again, I'm gone. For good.


*whistle*
Quoting Grothar:


I think my name would fit nicely there on that list. In years to come, when I'm no longer around you could all write "Remember Grothar?" What a disaster that was.


"Hurricane Grothar" does sound like a large and powerful hurricane.
Imo, 15L sometime tomorrow morning. Looking good per this shot. Probably peak as a 50-60mph storm before weakening
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Skye the truth is admin has no sense of the history of this place. I doubt every comment beell had removed had a link that could be interpreted as spam. Gets tiresome. I laid off for several weeks after getting comments removed for no apparent reason other than they did not agree with the opinion du jour held by many of the bloggers here. Been accused of being mean-spirited in trying to point out permafrost location. lol. A lot of the well-informed longtime bloggers you and I know well rarely, if ever, post any more. Admin has a heavy-handed, non-uniform approach. If this comment, or any other fairly spoken words of mine disappear from this forum again, I'm gone. For good.

Quoting you to keep it on the blog and quoting you to agree with you, this blog has become to political and not stayed weather related.
Quoting Jedkins01:


"Hurricane Grothar" does sound like a large and powerful hurricane.


"...GROTHAR APPROACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST... MASSIVE EVACUATIONS ORDERED FOR NEW YORK CITY..."
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Imo, 15L sometime tomorrow morning. Looking good per this shot. Probably peak as a 50-60mph storm before weakening


I don't care if it only gets to 35 kt. I just want to break this ridiculous naming curse. Enough is enough.
Quoting Chicklit:
I think it's hokey that TWC is going to name winter storms.
Besides calling themselves 'the weather authority, who do they think they are?
Certainly not the NWS.
bah humbug.
And Jeff has to report that nonsense.
sheesh.



Weather authority? Pshhhhh Joe B. has something to say about that... LOL

Heck, he'll put you in an eternal headlock if you disagree anyway ;)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL STORM MARCE (GAEMI)
11:00 AM PhST October 3 2012
===============================

Tropical Storm "MARCE" has slightly intensified as it continues to move southeastward slowly

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Marce (Gaemi) [991 hPa] located at 15.2°N 117.2°E or 270 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 4 knots.

Additional Information
=====================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring occasional moderate to heavy rains over Metro Manila, central Luzon, MIMAROPA, CALABARZON and Bicol Region.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the western seaboard of Luzon due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm "Marce".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 pm today.
Quoting Grothar:


I avoid 6 syllable words unless I want to convey a degree of verisimilitude. It can become an indefatigable chore. One must be descriminatory in their use to avoid the meaning of the sentence becoming incomprehensible.
Disindubitably!
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't care if it only gets to 35 kt. I just want to break this ridiculous naming curse. Enough is enough.

I know what you mean Kori. This is the only list in the six year naming cycle that has failed to make it to the O storm and the only one that has failed to have a major hurricane strike the US or have a name retired as a result of a tropical cyclone causing a significant impact on US soil. Also, it has been a long time (Since Hurricane Joan in 1988) that this list of names has had a name retired.
Quoting Grothar:


I avoid 6 syllable words unless I want to convey a degree of verisimilitude. It can become an indefatigable chore. One must be descriminatory in their use to avoid the meaning of the sentence becoming incomprehensible.
One of your big words is misspelled.
Quoting lobdelse81:

I know what you mean Kori. This is the only list in the six year naming cycle that has failed to make it to the O storm and the only one that has failed to have a major hurricane strike the US or have a name retired as a result of a tropical cyclone causing a significant impact on US soil. Also, it has been a long time (Since Hurricane Joan in 1988) that this list of names has had a name retired.


I'm hoping Isaac gets retired, as it is (as of now) the only original 'I' storm that remains on any of the lists.
Floater soon anyone?? The resolution is picking up in the east Atlantic from GOES-14. Feels good.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Floater soon anyone?? The resolution is picking up in the east Atlantic from GOES-14. Feels good.


Feels good man.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Skye the truth is admin has no sense of the history of this place. I doubt every comment beell had removed had a link that could be interpreted as spam. Gets tiresome. I laid off for several weeks after getting comments removed for no apparent reason other than they did not agree with the opinion du jour held by many of the bloggers here. Been accused of being mean-spirited (add: and malicious) in trying to point out permafrost location. lol. A lot of the well-informed, longtime bloggers you and I know well rarely, if ever, post any more. Admin has a heavy-handed, non-uniform approach. If this comment, or any other fairly spoken words of mine disappear from this forum again, I'm gone. For good.


Two sided coin..I now enjoy posting here from time to time because all the spam and nonsense seems to go Poof rather fast..when I want to post or read that type stuff I go to my blog or another blog besides the Drs.IMO this blog is better than it has ever been unless you enjoy the chaos it once was.
Quoting beell:


Yeah, I fixed it Skye. I suppose it was a little to much of an obscure reference to the possibility that the right to name a storm might be for sale to the highest bidder.

Anyway, the post was removed by admin. Along with a few the other day. I suppose I have overstayed my welcome!


Hope this doesn't mean your leaving !! I enjoy many of your comments !!
Quoting auburn:


IMO this blog is better than it has ever been unless you enjoy the chaos it once was.


I do miss Stormtop. He seemed to have an erotic fetish for seeing a hurricane hit New Orleans.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
One of your big words is misspelled.



wihch one?
Quoting whitewabit:


Hope this doesn't mean your leaving !! I enjoy many of your comments !!


As do I..!!!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Quoting you to keep it on the blog and quoting you to agree with you, this blog has become to political and not stayed weather related.
Thanks. I guess the weather doesn't matter any more. Nor does teaching others what we know about it - much of which we learned here. Me anyway. I learned much here. Or caring about those who are going through it. Now I see a bunch of oneupmanship and lack of appreciation for the amount of energy some have expended here posting blogs that actually had something to do with the weather. Me, beell, Kori, all of us. This place has changed. Everything changes. Except Love.

That's all I have to say.
Quoting Grothar:



wihch one?


Discriminatory?

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
This place has changed. Everything changes. Except Love.

Except me.
Quoting beell:


Thanks, Skye.
For true, lol.

The use of "weather" to drive advertising and generate revenue is nothing new. Gotta give TWC credit for their creativity. IMO, of course.

anti-spam indeed!

: - )


Hey, beel. Don't leave. I've been banned twice (One just two weeks ago) and I have had a number of my comments removed. When my family found out about the last ban and they made me a dunce cap and made me wear it during dinner. The wrote on it "Danger, going thru weather withdrawals."
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (T1219)
12:00 PM JST October 3 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Iwo Jima

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maliksi (985 hPa) located at 25.4N 141.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
375 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 35.9N 144.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Japan
45 HRS: 44.2N 154.6E - Extratropical Cyclone In Kuril Waters
Should name the storms after infamous politicians. They will have plenty of names for decades.
Quoting auburn:


Two sided coin..I now enjoy posting here from time to time because all the spam and nonsense seems to go Poof rather fast..when I want to post or read that type stuff I go to my blog or another blog besides the Drs.IMO this blog is better than it has ever been unless you enjoy the chaos it once was.
Aubie, removing nonsense is one thing. Removing legitimate, intelligent comments is another.
:)
...

Goodnight, wu.
Quoting Slamguitar:


Discriminatory?


Sorry, that was a tpyo.
Quoting auburn:


Two sided coin..I now enjoy posting here from time to time because all the spam and nonsense seems to go Poof rather fast..when I want to post or read that type stuff I go to my blog or another blog besides the Dr's. IMO this blog is better than it has ever been unless you enjoy the chaos it once was.

Back a few years ago, this blog was outstanding, now it's just average. The information sharing was what kept me here, now if I don't come here for a few days it doesn't worry me, I know I'm not really missing very much. Maybe I have been here to long???
537. beell
Quoting whitewabit:


Hope this doesn't mean your leaving !! I enjoy many of your comments !!


Thanks, wab, and Aub, too.
(and Gro 'n bf)

Bloggers come and go, then they come back, then they go, then they come back, etc, etc, etc.

And I'm certain the sun will come up tomorrow!
I don't know if anyone remembers the great Halloween snowstorm of 1991 in Minnesota or the unusual Appalachian Mountain Spring heavy snow of May 1992. Would these also meet criteria for naming?
My post get "Poofed "from time to time also..of course no one ever misses them..hahahaha
I think the O storm may be the last name storm of the season
Quoting beell:


Thanks, wab, and Aub, too.

Bloggers come and go, then they come back, then they go, then they come back, etc, etc, etc.

And I'm certain the sun will come up tomorrow!


Yea this dark thing is never in the Forecast..it just seems to happen..things that make ya go hummm...
Quoting Grothar:



wihch one?


The incomprehensible one.
Quoting auburn:
My post get "Poofed "from time to time also..of course no one ever misses them..hahahaha


We all get "poofed". I never take it personally.
544. beell
But I have learned my lesson. Do not post advertising commercials on a weather blog...
(oh the ironing!)
Quoting Grothar:


We all get "poofed". I never take it personally.


No me either..
Now lets say that an unusual cold air mass was in place all the way down to the Florida peninsula in January and this were to coincide with an area of low pressure that were to produce some snow in that state (even if only a coating to a few inches)similar to the freak snow event January 1977 in Miami. Do you think this would get named? I really think events like this in atypical places should get a winter storm name designated to them.
548. beell
Can anyone recommend an advertiser's blog where I can post weather and climate related comments?
549. j2008
So for this winter strom season I will use any storm names TWC uses and imput my own for storms I see fitting my criteria of Winter Storm. Only problem is I need my own list of names that I can use so please feel free to pop on over to my blog and leave some names I can use/ send me WU mail with a name you would like to see used. I will unveil my list when completed. Thanks in advance.
Quoting beell:
Can anyone recommend an advertiser's blog where I can post weather and climate related comments?
LOL. Dang it.
Fresh Nadine TRMM & through the middle..click pic.



Quoting beell:
Can anyone recommend an advertiser's blog where I can post weather and climate related comments?


We used to have a whole bunch here..some with malware even but they are all banned now.
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh Nadine TRMM & through the middle..click pic.





We used to have a whole bunch here..some with malware even but they are all banned now.


Much nicer blog now without all the trolls might start posting my weather thoughts again !!
Cloudsat of the EPAC blob


Quoting whitewabit:


Much nicer blog now without all the trolls might start posting my weather thoughts again !!


Yay:) You're one of the originals...
Cloudsat through the heavy side of Maliksi.
Skye No cloudsat video on those links .. just a gif of the satellites orbit ..
Quoting whitewabit:
Skye No cloudsat video on those links .. just a gif of the satellites orbit ..


That's what cloudsat looks like..a single detailed slice through the clouds. Blue/brown on the bottom is water/land. Gives height & a look at clouds/precipitation as if you were looking at a slice of it from the side. The link to the sat orbit gives orientation & a look at where the pass is. You can also click on the color bar that correlates what part of the pass you want to view & see it bigger than posted here.

Jed~ That is pretty political..
Ah, how great to come by and find Winter Storms as the main topic! Thanks, Doc Masters!
We in Vermont salute you! :-)
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS CONTINUES SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
557 Jedkins01: Not to be too political, but sense this isn't about debate, and it is election time, everyone should take this test below and see where you end up, it's a very comprehensive and more accurate test of where you really stand politically.

It's not a test weighing the taker's opinions. It's a push poll, and a glaringly O B V I O U S one at that.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI (T1219)
15:00 PM JST October 3 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Chichi-jima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maliksi (985 hPa) located at 26.0N 141.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
375 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 36.4N 145.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Japan
48 HRS: 45.1N 155.6E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea East Of Kurils
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM GAEMI (T1220)
15:00 PM JST October 3 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Gaemi (990 hPa) located at 15.3N 117.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.9N 116.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 14.8N 114.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 14.9N 110.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea


Quoting lobdelse81:
Now lets say that an unusual cold air mass was in place all the way down to the Florida peninsula in January and this were to coincide with an area of low pressure that were to produce some snow in that state (even if only a coating to a few inches)similar to the freak snow event January 1977 in Miami. Do you think this would get named? I really think events like this in atypical places should get a winter storm name designated to them.

Then when the system heads northeast and turns into a non-event do we keep the name or just pretend it all never happened?
An interesting story about rudeness on the internetz. Just some food for thought the next time we find ourselves accused of arrogance and/or rudeness. We might ask ourselves, "Do I feel entitled to be jerk?" and/or "Do you think people realize that I'm blogging while intoxicated?"

"There's something about typing your thoughts on the internet that makes some perfectly nice people act like jerks. It's not just the anonymity, because even on social networking sites where our identities are displayed to our contacts, arguments often devolve into name calling and bullying.

"According to soon-to-be-published research from professors at Columbia University and the University of Pittsburgh, browsing Facebook lowers our self control. The effect is most pronounced with people whose Facebook networks were made up of close friends, the researchers say.

"Most of us present an enhanced image of ourselves on Facebook. This positive image—and the encouragement we get, in the form of "likes"—boosts our self-esteem. And when we have an inflated sense of self, we tend to exhibit poor self-control.

"Think of it as a licensing effect: You feel good about yourself so you feel a sense of entitlement," says Keith Wilcox, assistant professor of marketing at Columbia Business School and co-author of the study. "And you want to protect that enhanced view, which might be why people are lashing out so strongly at others who don't share their opinions." These types of behavior—poor self control, inflated sense of self—"are often displayed by people impaired by alcohol," he adds
I agree somewhat with the idea that some people feel a sense of entitlement on social media. But I also think that the absense of face to face contact with others you're in a conversation with causes us to fill in blanks tinged by our own moods & personalities.

So a person who tends to be insecure, sees some comments as attacks that weren't meant to be. A person who's tired or grumpy may fly off the handle more easily at a comment meant as a joke by someone else who can't see their reaction. Not being able to see when someone is smiling leaves us to decide if they were being sarcastic or just ribbing us in a friendly way.

I try to edit my comments so that people won't misunderstand me, but inevitably, some will. One of the best things I've found to use, in the absense of facial cues, is to add a smiley to the end of my sentence when I'm being friendly or smiling, or a winky when I'm making a joke. Long years of chatting on irc have made that a habit. :)

By the way, I'm being snarky if I do this: :P
:D

Good Morning Folks!.......
In response to the original post...

I predict that this coming winter will have a record number of named winter storms.

I furthur predict that the winter after will have at least a 50% chance of breaking that record, either high or low.

We're all gonna die!...with all those new records one way or the other!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
441 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-031000 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
441 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
About the naming of winter storms by the Weather Channel --

Are there any other examples of companies doing this?

Did anybody ask the National Weather Service what they thought?

It just seems strange that the Weather Channel decided to do all of this on their own, without consulting anybody or asking them to join them.
Quoting jerseycityjoan:
About the naming of winter storms by the Weather Channel --

Are there any other examples of companies doing this?

Did anybody ask the National Weather Service what they thought?

It just seems strange that the Weather Channel decided to do all of this on their own, without consulting anybody or asking them to join them.
yes it seems strange indeed but..we do not know if the WC was in contact with nws and is doing it as a test,so we will see what happens and if it is a success we just might see nws doing it also in the future
raining lightly here by me looks like the same pattern as yesterday........
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT
GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY.
WHILE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ONE OR
TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DIXIE COUNTY.
ALSO...WHILE THE OVERALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...THERE IS STILL A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES OF BAY AND GULF COUNTIES.
Ugh. This is just ridiculous. 96L was organizing earlier, but recent satellite images suggest shear. Notice how the center is exposed along the western side of the convection, which in itself does not have that much organization.

This list really does seem cursed at times...
Quoting KoritheMan:
Ugh. This is just ridiculous. 96L was organizing earlier, but recent satellite images suggest shear. Notice how the center is exposed along the western side of the convection, which in itself does not have that much organization.

This list really does seem cursed at times...
Tell me about it at this rate we will not have Oscar never.
Good morning or evening, everyone. Cool nights are so great for sleeping, loving the beginning of Fall.
Good morning everyone, I see Nadine is still alive at 50mph and that 96L isn't as organized as earlier.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Ugh. This is just ridiculous. 96L was organizing earlier, but recent satellite images suggest shear. Notice how the center is exposed along the western side of the convection, which in itself does not have that much organization.

This list really does seem cursed at times...

Hey, getting to the N storm in an El Nino year isn't bad... Although I would like to see an Oscar.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Ugh. This is just ridiculous. 96L was organizing earlier, but recent satellite images suggest shear. Notice how the center is exposed along the western side of the convection, which in itself does not have that much organization.

This list really does seem cursed at times...


This has been the story all summer. Storms are struggling in the lower latitudes. Only one hurricane has formed south of 25 north.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hey, getting to the N storm in an El Nino year isn't bad... Although I would like to see an Oscar.

I want to see Oscar just so this curse thing is gone, I don't care how strong Oscar would get.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I want to see Oscar just so this curse thing is gone, I don't care how strong Oscar would get.
I agree do you still think 96L will be renumber today?
96L was a TD yesterday but NHC held back on classifying it. It may still be a TD/weak TS but time is running out as the monstrus shear approaches.
Quoting allancalderini:
I agree do you still think 96L will be renumber today?

It is still possible but not as likely as yesterday, 96L was super close to a TD if not one yesterday.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
96L was a TD yesterday but NHC held back on classifying it. It may still be a TD/weak TS but time is running out as the monstrus shear approaches.

What?

SHEAR (KT) 5 11 10 12 14 17 21 19 24 10 12 19 34

Wind shear isn't affecting 96L. Its convection has weakened slightly since last night, but appears to be re-firing already in the eastern side of circulation.
Not a fan of the insane 70% humidity here. It feels like its in the lower 90's.
Quoting jerseycityjoan:
About the naming of winter storms by the Weather Channel --

Are there any other examples of companies doing this?

Did anybody ask the National Weather Service what they thought?

It just seems strange that the Weather Channel decided to do all of this on their own, without consulting anybody or asking them to join them.

Yeah.

That's about right.

You nailed it.

I don't agree with it.
Rodeo and Fair in town today, kids have fun day to get to learn about rodeos. Love fun days! Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday!
naming winter storms=govt getting bigger
For once I agree with AccuWeather. They have just released their 2012-2013 snow forecast, calling for below average snowfall across much of the Northwest and Northern Plains, and above average snowfall across much of the East.

I believe the coverage of above average snowfall will be greater than depicted still.

Snow days compared to average:



Snow forecast:

Election is coming.

Things will heat up. No doubt.

Even here more political and climate and less weather.

Just have to live with it. Or join another blog.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Nadine weakened to 45 mph... expected to become post-tropical tomorrow night or Friday, tying or beating Hurricane Kyle in terms of days active as a (sub)tropical cyclone.
96L does look better than a little while ago and advisories look to be started today. This year may finally be the year.

1. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
597. SuzK
Quoting AussieStorm:

It will only be TWC to use these names. Nothing official from NWS. Just a PR Campaign.


Those of us in the northeast aren't laughing. Nor'easters are exceedingly dangerous. We had hundreds of motorists stranded 1/4 mile from our home, on I-81, for more than a day. Snowmobilers were the only hope they had of not freezing to death. Even a 12 hour notice could shut down that interstate early enough to prevent a repeat.

Also, TWC has no competitors on tv, so a 'PR' motivation seems silly. No offense Aussie, I generally enjoy reading your statements.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Nadine weakened to 45 mph... expected to become post-tropical tomorrow night or Friday, tying or beating Hurricane Kyle in terms of days active as a (sub)tropical cyclone.

It is a major race against time for Nadine if she wants to beat Kyle. Most things are against Nadine and she could become extra-tropical earlier than expected.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT
1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...

90 PERCENT...

OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Columbus Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.

It's getting cooler, faster this year compared to others.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Columbus Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.

Whoa. O_o

For me it might not even get out of the 40s.
Columbus Day: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.

602. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Very strong language this am
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What?

SHEAR (KT) 5 11 10 12 14 17 21 19 24 10 12 19 34

Wind shear isn't affecting 96L. Its convection has weakened slightly since last night, but appears to be re-firing already in the eastern side of circulation.


Shear in a couple of days I was refering to.
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Nadine moved up a bit through the record books. As of 8 a.m. EDT today (Wednesday), based on operational data, Nadine ranks 3rd as the longest time spent as a tropical storm at 20.5 days. Nadine is also tied for 5th place as the longest time spent as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane) at 21.0 days.
The all-time record for a tropical storm or tropical cyclone is 28 days, set by the "San Ciriaco Hurricane" of 1899. Nadine is not expected to challenge that record, but could still move up a little in the ranks before losing its tropical characteristics.
More historical information is found at: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E6.html
Quoting SLU:


Very strong language this am

96L will likely be a depression soon, I say probably at 11am.
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Good morning! A rainy start to the day in Madeira Beach.
‎NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center‎

Tropical Storm Nadine moved up a bit through the record books. As of 8 a.m. EDT today (Wednesday), based on operational data, Nadine ranks 3rd as the longest time spent as a tropical storm at 20.5 days. Nadine is also tied for 5th place as the longest time spent as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane) at 21.0 days.
The all-time record for a tropical storm or tropical cyclone is 28 days, set by the "San Ciriaco Hurricane" of 1899. Nadine is not expected to challenge that record, but could still move up a little in the ranks before losing its tropical characteristics.
More historical information is found at:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E6.html
608. SLU
Quoting wxchaser97:

96L will likely be a depression soon, I say probably at 11am.


I think it's been a TD for at least 18 hours. Looking at how vigorous the system was yesterday, it's hard to believe it wasn't producing 35 - 40 mph winds by then and it appeared to have a closed circulation on visible imagery ....
Again, Nadine disappointed many.

Very overrated system with uncharacteristic properties.

Not a good one to track.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What?

SHEAR (KT) 5 11 10 12 14 17 21 19 24 10 12 19 34

Wind shear isn't affecting 96L. Its convection has weakened slightly since last night, but appears to be re-firing already in the eastern side of circulation.


Shear is affecting 96L, just apparently not enough to bar development:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
96L.

Yet another fish system.

Nothing fun to track here, Folks.

Move on. Next storm please.
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
348 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
A STALLED COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL JUST
WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE ATLANTIC PUSHING THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.
DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UPPER
ENERGY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND NORTH TO AROUND 90 INLAND AND
SOUTH FOR HIGHS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OVER
THE STATE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE ATLANTIC MERGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
US TO KEEP GENERALLY E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. THE DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND HEATING AND
DIURNAL FORCINGS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY
WITH 40-50 PERCENT THURSDAY...30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY EVENING...AND
30-40 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S EACH DAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S.
I hope I reallly really do hope accuweather's forecast comes true.With all the false hopes these last two years...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For once I agree with AccuWeather. They have just released their 2012-2013 snow forecast, calling for below average snowfall across much of the Northwest and Northern Plains, and above average snowfall across much of the East.

I believe the coverage of above average snowfall will be greater than depicted still.

Snow days compared to average:



Snow forecast:

...i hope they are wrong with the snowfall for the mid west, they need the melting snow later on to replenish their water supplies for the coming spring, remembering most of those states are still in a drought situation
whew..getting some GREAT rains here this morning...
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ853-031230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0142.121003T1201Z-121003T1230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
801 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING LONGBOAT KEY...NEW PASS...SARASOTA BAY AND SIESTA KEY...

* UNTIL 830 AM EDT

* AT 759 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT JUST SOUTH OF SIESTA
KEY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope I reallly really do hope accuweather's forecast comes true.With all the false hopes these last two years...

What a boring and non-eventful end to what seemed to be such an excitingly promising first half of the season.

Oh well.

Probably a good thing since we saw what happened with Isaac. No one wants that.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Shear is affecting 96L, just apparently not enough to bar development:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

No, I disagree. Nothing about the cloud pattern of the storm indicates wind shear.
619. SuzK
All of you who are dissing the idea of naming winter storms are frustrating me. I'm sorry if it makes you uncomfortable! It IS a step forward. It doesn't = more government. Ridiculous.

I would love to read some conversations here that centered on the melting North Pole and its impact on global weather. On why storms are getting stronger, rains heavier, winds accelerating, craziness, and not just hurricanes. You're wasting a lot of time on going-no-where storms. There have been stunningly anomalous weather events in the past month both in Alaska and Brazil, but nearly no mention of them here. You're missing the point altogether Im afraid.

The times they are a'changin
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$
Quoting TomballTXPride:

What a boring and non-eventful end to what seemed to be such an excitingly promising first half of the season.

Oh well.

Probably a good thing since we saw what happened with Isaac. No one wants that.
As I said before.I could really careless if the hurricane season ended with Nadine as I've already had my fun in tracking storms this year.Now since winter looks like It's coming early this year so i'm going to be more focused on my weather.
going to be some local street flooding i bet its pouring..
Quoting LargoFl:
going to be some local street flooding i bet its pouring..


You're right I just looked outside and our side road that leads down to the Bay is flooded luckily we have the Bay for it to run off in.
Quoting icmoore:


You're right I just looked outside and our side road that leads down to the Bay is flooded luckily we have the Bay for it to run off in.
yes its really coming down now, local weather guy said this afternoon the sun should come out again as these storms will move inland
Quoting 625. LargoFl:
yes its really coming down now, local weather guy said this afternoon the sun should come out again as these storms will move inland
Quoting 626. LargoFl:
Quoting 627. LargoFl:
Quoting 628. LargoFl:
Quoting 629. LargoFl:


5 comments in a row; LOL
Quoting Bobbyweather:


5 comments in a row; LOL


So
Quoting washingtonian115:
As I said before.I could really careless if the hurricane season ended with Nadine as I've already had my fun in tracking storms this year.Now since winter looks like It's coming early this year so i'm going to be more focused on my weather.

I understand, Wash, and share your wish.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


So

what? I'm just saying it's funny. I once posted 7 in a row.

On the other hand, 96L is not yet renumbered 15L:
AL, 96, 2012100312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 410W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting Bobbyweather:

what? I'm just saying it's funny. I once posted 7 in a row.

On the other hand, 96L is not yet renumbered 15L:
AL, 96, 2012100312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 410W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Nothing funny about it
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nothing funny about it

You don't have to feel funny about it. It's just my opinion.
Quoting SuzK:
All of you who are dissing the idea of naming winter storms are frustrating me. I'm sorry if it makes you uncomfortable! It IS a step forward. It doesn't = more government. Ridiculous.

I would love to read some conversations here that centered on the melting North Pole and its impact on global weather. On why storms are getting stronger, rains heavier, winds accelerating, craziness, and not just hurricanes. You're wasting a lot of time on going-no-where storms. There have been stunningly anomalous weather events in the past month both in Alaska and Brazil, but nearly no mention of them here. You're missing the point altogether Im afraid.

The times they are a'changin

I really don't think storms are getting stronger. It's more the media is portraying this picture.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I understand, Wash, and share your wish.
There is a saying around here that a cloudy fall usually ends up with a snowy winter for my area.It's been cloudy some of these past mornings/days.
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
I bet when W115 saw accuweathers snow forcast she probaly hard off of it ha ha

Nah. She doesn't put much stock in AccuWeather. She calls it HypuWeather. If you pay attention to the comments on the blog, you'll learn the views of other posters and also avoid making goofy baseless comments that offer nothing but criticism.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Nah. She doesn't put much stock in AccuWeather. She calls it HypuWeather. If you pay attention to the comments on the blog, you'll learn the views of other posters and also avoid making goofy baseless comments that offer nothing but criticism.
Don't pay them no attention.Any way 96L is probably a depression by now.I'm not sure why it hasn't been renumbered yet.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Don't pay them no attention.Any way 96L is probably a depression by now.I'm not sure why it hasn't been renumbered yet.


I know. It will shortly. Though I personally can care less. I'm patiently waiting for Doc Master's to team up Cantore for a little Fall Foliage blog action. I'm hoping the next couple weeks will showcase this as long as the tropics remain quiet... Plus a winter 2012-2013 preview for the Northeast and Midwest would also be fun...since I am at a loss for any kind of long-range prediction for this upcoming winter after the unusually warm Spring and Summer this year.
We're finally getting some good rainfall out of this frontal boundary in the coastal Tampa Bay Area. Only a quarter of an inch so far, but water vapor imagery indicates a long stream of moisture heading in. Have a great day everyone,
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I know. It will shortly. Though I personally can care less. I'm patiently waiting for Doc Master's to team up Cantore for a little Fall Foliage blog action. I'm hoping the next couple weeks will showcase this as long as the tropics remain quiet...
I think two for October is a good bet(this including 96L).Not sure about November as the troughs have been stronger earlier on and only going to get stronger.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think two for October is a good bet(this including 96L).Not sure about November as the troughs have been stronger earlier on and only going to get stronger.

Probably a fair guess. This October going into November is beginning to remind me of 2010 late in the season as virtually everything was closed down with the exception of the Caribbean where Tomas eventually formed and wreaked havoc for Haiti a bit.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
96L.

Yet another fish system.

Nothing fun to track here, Folks.

Move on. Next storm please.


Tropical weather forecasting pertains to tropical cyclones, anywhere, not just the one that steamroll through the Caribbean or towards the US.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Tropical weather forecasting pertains to tropical cyclones, anywhere, not just the one that steamroll through the Caribbean or towards the US.

You're not telling me anything I'm not already aware of, Teddy.

Still doesn't make 96L any more fun or interesting to track since it's going to no-where land and who really cares about that.

Time to put a ribbon on the 2012 season and shift gears. At least that's the direction I'm heading.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You're not telling me anything I'm not already aware of, Teddy.

Still doesn't make 96L any more fun or interesting to track since it's going to no-where land and who really cares about that.

Time to put a ribbon on the 2012 season and shift gears. At least that's the direction I'm heading.
I think what he's trying to say that it makes you look like you only care about storms affecting land.But I know where your coming from.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think what he's trying to say that it makes you look like you only care about storms affecting land.But I know where your coming from.

Cool.
CSU forecasts average activity in Caribbean for October/November.

Link
I'm still looking forward to Oscar even though it looks like he be a no mans land roamer.The Oscar Myers jokes are going to be classic!.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
96L.

Yet another fish system.

Nothing fun to track here, Folks.

Move on. Next storm please.
Here is the next storm:

06z GFS 384 hrs.



00z GFS Ensemble



18z GFS Ensemble

Quoting LargoFl:
going to be some local street flooding i bet its pouring..



Yeah we are getting drenched here this morning, its good to see the wet situation playing out after all. The front had very little to it until it stalled. There some areas of enhanced upper divergence sweeping by that is overcoming the the warm mid level air. Which is what I expected that we would need to see higher coverage.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here is the next storm:

06z GFS 384 hrs.



00z GFS Ensemble



18z GFS Ensemble

I can't see nothing.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FLZ051-055-031445-
HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-
955 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH AND NORTH
CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A CLUSTER OF
HEAVY SHOWERS LOCATED NEAR LITTLE MANATEE RIVER STATE PARK...OR 14
MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMETTO...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
RUSKIN...LITTLE MANATEE RIVER STATE PARK...SUN CITY
CENTER...BRANDON...BLOOMINGDALE...AND WIMAUMA...UNTIL 1045 AM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 240 AND 261.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 4 BETWEEN EXITS 1 AND 14.

TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME
CAUTION.

&&

LAT...LON 2775 8249 2779 8243 2783 8246 2782 8249
2786 8248 2785 8247 2782 8244 2782 8241
2784 8241 2783 8244 2789 8241 2790 8247
2807 8243 2801 8216 2759 8233 2764 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 195DEG 18KT 2771 8240

$$
Guess we still wont get the cooler weather........
GFS at 48 hours.............
Fish storms still present an excellent opportunity to test forecast models for direction, speed, intensity, development, influential factors, etc. but without the headache of evacuating hundreds of thousands of people in harms way.

If you are in this for improving remote sensing, prediction capability, and safety rather than just to see if the weather channel will be visiting your Wal-Mart this week, Fish Storms are plenty exciting. Also worth mentioning is the waves they make for coastal erosion and surfers, ocean upwelling of nutrients for production influences, and sea surface temperature shifts.
Naming winter storms?? Just another part of the hype machine!
WHY..IS WEATHER CHANNEL GOING TO NAME WINTER STORMS??.................HERE IS THE ANSWER.Link
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah we are getting drenched here this morning, its good to see the wet situation playing out after all. The front had very little to it until it stalled. There some areas of enhanced upper divergence sweeping by that is overcoming the the warm mid level air. Which is what I expected that we would need to see higher coverage.
so much for the front moving through earlier than forecast, as you said last night :p
Quoting LargoFl:
yes its really coming down now, local weather guy said this afternoon the sun should come out again as these storms will move inland


Every time the sun comes out lately, it feels miserably hot. I am totally up for a nice overcast period. We have a 60% chance of rain today again.
Quoting FL1980:
Naming winter storms?? Just another part of the hype machine!


I know! What a horrible idea, let's also not name hurricanes because those are clearly hype machines.

Sarcasm aside, I think it's a good idea to name winter storms. Doing a bit of research into this, winter storms can cause billions of dollars in damages and knock out power to a lot of people. Things like nor'easters for examples coming up the coast are almost like hurricanes, but they're cold core instead of warm core like hurricanes are. They can bring heavy snow (instead of flooding rains), strong winds, and even storm surge if they're powerful enough. It's a good idea to name things as such. Should the names be so ridiculous? Meh, probably not. I'd have gone with the phonetic alphabet for them (Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot, so on).
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here is the next storm:

06z GFS 384 hrs.



00z GFS Ensemble



18z GFS Ensemble


Columbian Heat Low - GFS loves to develop it early and late in the season due to feedback. Also note how you posted the 384hr forecast, which rarely verifies.
The ATCF has renumbered; the NHC may/should follow suit in the next 20 minutes or so:

invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al152012.ren

AL, 15, 2012100312, , BEST, 0, 171N, 413W, 30, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know! What a horrible idea, let's also not name hurricanes because those are clearly hype machines.

Sarcasm aside, I think it's a good idea to name winter storms. Doing a bit of research into this, winter storms can cause billions of dollars in damages and knock out power to a lot of people. Things like nor'easters for examples coming up the coast are almost like hurricanes, but they're cold core instead of warm core like hurricanes are. They can bring heavy snow (instead of flooding rains), strong winds, and even storm surge if they're powerful enough. It's a good idea to name things as such. Should the names be so ridiculous? Meh, probably not. I'd have gone with the phonetic alphabet for them (Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot, so on).


Still incorporates the hype element, though. Hard to refute that.

What's next, Teddy?

Are we going to name floods, droughts, tornadoes?
Quoting Neapolitan:
invest_RENUMBER_al962012_al152012.ren

AL, 15, 2012100312, , BEST, 0, 171N, 413W, 30, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 90, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


There you have it, Tropical Depression 15.

Remember, this season was supposed to be inactive ;).
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Still incorporates the hype element, though. Hard to refute that.

What's next, Teddy?

Are we going to name floods, droughts, tornadoes?


You can say that about hurricanes and tropical cyclones. Take the system that hit Florida last year, all evidence pointed that system, 93L as I recall, should have been Subtropical Storm Rina at landfall in Cape Canaveral, Florida. There was no attention given to it, but if it was named a subtropical, perhaps even a tropical storm it would have generated attention. I can tell you for a fact my relatives over there sure thought it was a 50-60mph tropical storm and were caught off guard.

You're completely missing the point, it generates awareness, not hype. I'd much rather if the WMO had came up with these, instead of TWC, because this is a good idea to take the necessary steps to prepare people for things like blizzards an Nor'easters.

We can't name tornadoes, because there are thousands a year. You can't name droughts because that's not active severe weather in the same sense as hurricanes and blizzards are, same with floods.
About time.Hopefully they won't snatch it back like they've done with past storms o_0.
Really cool pic. This goes without saying....



Picture courtesy of
(TonyInDC)
Quoting washingtonian115:
About time.Hopefully they won't snatch it back like they've done with past storms o_0.

No kidding. Either sh** or get off the pot.

I don't know. We'll see Oscar form. We'll also watch him fade into the seas of emptiness. Then we'll repeat cycle with the next storm.

Or not.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You can say that about hurricanes and tropical cyclones. Take the system that hit Florida last year, all evidence pointed that system, 93L as I recall, should have been Subtropical Storm Rina at landfall in Cape Canaveral, Florida. There was no attention given to it, but if it was named a subtropical, perhaps even a tropical storm it would have generated attention. I can tell you for a fact my relatives over there sure thought it was a 50-60mph tropical storm and were caught off guard.

You're completely missing the point, it generates awareness, not hype. I'd much rather if the WMO had came up with these, instead of TWC, because this is a good idea to take the necessary steps to prepare people for things like blizzards an Nor'easters.

We can't name tornadoes, because there are thousands a year. You can't name droughts because that's not active severe weather in the same sense as hurricanes and blizzards are, same with floods.


But raising awareness to weather events deemed as killers is the sole and primary reason behind the motive. And aren't flash floods and droughts events that fall into that category...?
Quoting jeffs713:

Columbian Heat Low - GFS loves to develop it early and late in the season due to feedback. Also note how you posted the 384hr forecast, which rarely verifies.
Yeah I know it's far out, but looking at the time of the year it makes sense and lines up with climatology. Not sure what the atmosphere will be like around that time frame. As we get closer we will see if the other models jump on board or if the GFS jumps off board with development.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I know it's far out, but looking at the time of the year it makes sense and lines up with climatology. Not sure what the atmosphere will be like around that time frame. As we get closer we will see if the other models jump on board or if the GFS jumps off board with development.
The models are very very entertaining to watch that far out as it's more than likely it won't happen.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Still incorporates the hype element, though. Hard to refute that.

What's next, Teddy?

Are we going to name floods, droughts, tornadoes?
seems europe has been naming bad winter storms for years..we in the USA are behind the times in this area..I for one would like to see how this plays out this coming winter,its an interesting idea...and one more thing..now OTHER of the country outside of the tropical storm danger area's...can now have a named storm of their own to worry about its coming...in wintertime


000
WTNT35 KNHC 031438
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...
...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 41.5W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY. A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS
FORECAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Fetch of moisture flowing up from the Western Caribbean to the GOM. The GFS was showing a nice vort max right over Tampa a few days ago. Getting some nice steady rains here now.

#658 The Weather in NE florida is much messier than that neat map you posted. Big storms on both sides of that stationary front line and everything moving NE against all the arrows on your map.
See #662.
Hope everything gets out of the way for tomorrow's launch.
Nadine and TD 15:

Quoting LargoFl:

seems europe has been naming bad winter storms for years..we in the USA are behind the times in this area..I for one would like to see how this plays out this coming winter,its an interesting idea...and one more thing..now OTHER states in the country outside of the tropical storm danger area's...can now have a named storm of their own to worry about its coming...in wintertime..and be forewarned and maybe Listen to the warnings a lil more
TD15



Quoting washingtonian115:
The models are very very entertaining to watch that far out as it's more than likely it won't happen.
I will say this, if it continues to show development for a couple of days, then it will likely happen.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I will say this, if it continues to show development for a couple of days, then it will likely happen.

CDM...

I'm just not sure.

Just not.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


But raising awareness to weather events deemed as killers is the sole and primary reason behind the motive. And aren't flash floods and droughts events that fall into that category...?


We do name severe flash floods and droughts, once they're finished. But you simply can't name a flash flood or a drought, that's not severe weather like a hurricane is. That's not an area of thunderstorms circulating around a low pressure. They're naming winter storms because they're very, very large, and can affect areas thousands of miles wild. Same with hurricanes.
Imagine this..you live in NYC..your driving home from work..and you hear on the radio......."news flash" severe storm warning...severe winter storm BRUTUS is bearing down on NYC..severe winds,and possible 2 feet or more of snow forecasted..possible road closures and power outages and tree's down..please remain safe and prepared..........
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We do name severe flash floods and droughts, once they're finished. But you simply can't name a flash flood or a drought, that's not severe weather like a hurricane is. That's not an area of thunderstorms circulating around a low pressure. They're naming winter storms because they're very, very large, and can affect areas thousands of miles wild. Same with hurricanes.


Is this the criteria they are basing the decision off of?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I know it's far out, but looking at the time of the year it makes sense and lines up with climatology. Not sure what the atmosphere will be like around that time frame. As we get closer we will see if the other models jump on board or if the GFS jumps off board with development.

Personally, whenever I see a model developing the Columbian heat low, I discount it unless there is another factor at play (such as interaction with a wave) and it is 4 days out or less. Not many storms form down in that section of the Caribbean, since there usually isn't much room for them to get going. It does happen, but rarely.
Quoting LargoFl:
seems europe has been naming bad winter storms for years..we in the USA are behind the times in this area..I for one would like to see how this plays out this coming winter,its an interesting idea...and one more thing..now OTHER of the country outside of the tropical storm danger area's...can now have a named storm of their own to worry about its coming...in wintertime


The named winter storms will only be found at the Weather Channel, and most likely its NBC affiliates. The names will not be recognized anywhere else and will not be referred to by anyone else (NOAA, CNN, CBS, ABC, FOX, Accuguess, etc.)
why is the forecast cone so short, do they expect TD15 to die in 3 days?
Quoting Chucktown:


The named winter storms will only be found at the Weather Channel, and most likely its NBC affiliates. The names will not be recognized anywhere else and will not be referred to by anyone else (NOAA, CNN, CBS, ABC, FOX. etc.)


I'm okay with that. How about at a local TV station? Aren't you a MET down in the lowland SC region....?
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Still incorporates the hype element, though. Hard to refute that.

What's next, Teddy?

Are we going to name floods, droughts, tornadoes?


I'm not completely sold on naming or not naming winter storms. I'm also not sold on how it is currently set up to happen, as I think it needs a more structured set of consistent criteria across the operational met community.

That aside, the slippery slope is not a logical form of reasoning. Debate the pros and cons of the issue here, in front of us, right now - not some situation that has been created through connected dots and imagination.
Quoting Chucktown:


The named winter storms will only be found at the Weather Channel, and most likely its NBC affiliates. The names will not be recognized anywhere else and will not be referred to by anyone else (NOAA, CNN, CBS, ABC, FOX. etc.)
what if CNN, CBS, ABC, FOX. etc decided to do there own winter storm naming. Could get very confusing.
Quoting SuzK:
All of you who are dissing the idea of naming winter storms are frustrating me. I'm sorry if it makes you uncomfortable! It IS a step forward...The times they are a'changin

yes.. and I hope they start naming droughts too and earthquakes maybe.. what else? Solar flares could be named I guess, and floods? Tidal waves are a no-brainer for sure.. get those baby books out we're gonna need a lot of names!
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Is this the criteria they are basing the decision off of?


You're completely missing the point of what I'm saying.

Heck, Europe has been naming them for years.

I bet that they were saying this when they decided to name hurricanes in 1950, that it was a ridiculous idea and would generate hype. Well, we're not complaining about it are we now?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
why is the forecast cone so short, do they expect TD15 to die in 3 days?


Pretty much.


48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Not even a post-tropical forecast point, which is rare.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
why is the forecast cone so short, do they expect TD15 to die in 3 days?

Yes.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...
...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I'm not completely sold on naming or not naming winter storms. I'm also not sold on it is currently set up to happen, as I think it needs a more structured set of consistent criteria across the operational met community.

That aside, the slippery slope is not a logical form of reasoning. Debate the pros and cons of the issue here, in front of us, right now - not some situation that has been created through connected dots and imagination.

Good point.

I guess we'll have to see where this leads us and the potential repercussions (good or bad) that emerge from it down the road...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You're completely missing the point of what I'm saying.

Heck, Europe has been naming them for years.

I bet that they were saying this when they decided to name hurricanes in 1950, that it was a ridiculous idea and would generate hype. Well, we're not complaining about it are we now?


Sorry if I appear to be circling the main premise of this. You have done a fine job explaining your reasoning, and therefore understand your point and where you are coming from.
does anyone know why the SFWMD page shows the GFS model as the AVNO model?
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I'm okay with that. How about at a local TV station? Aren't you a MET down in the lowland SC region....?


Yea, I work for the CBS affiliate, so we will not be referring to any named winter storm (thank goodness !!)
I personally think naming snowstorms is fine, between 2009-2011 D.C. got at least three really bad snowstorms and I can't remember which is which (or even if there were others). If they had names I would probably remember more.
As for naming other disasters, most others it just isn't practical.
Flash Floods and tornadoes happen too fast and there's too many
Dought can cover a vast and ill defined area but it doesn't move much
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, I work for the CBS affiliate, so we will not be referring to any named winter storm (thank goodness !!)

Cool.

And yeah, that is good!
what i want to know is how are they going to classify bad winter storms...like...a category 1 winter storm?..is that going to say..a foot of snow and 60 mph winds possible..etc etc..and are they even going to..give a category 1-2-3-4 etc....alot of information still needs to be handed out to the public on this, we'll see this winter..IF..it does happen this winter, and see how TWC handles this.....they say with a named storm people pay more attention...well we shall see if that proves true or not..............i remember way back in new york when i lived there..weather said a foot or more of snow and high winds was coming...all i did was go out and buy some extra milk etc...and inside i was saying..great i have a few days off from work lol..........lets see how this goes.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I'm not completely sold on naming or not naming winter storms. I'm also not sold on it is currently set up to happen, as I think it needs a more structured set of consistent criteria across the operational met community.

That aside, the slippery slope is not a logical form of reasoning. Debate the pros and cons of the issue here, in front of us, right now - not some situation that has been created through connected dots and imagination.


Agreed, there is no set criteria, only thing we know is they have to effect the east coast, and that's all. Nothing else, Not even a numbering system like WS01, WS02, Athena, WS03... ect.
Quoting LargoFl:
what i want to know is how are they going to classify bad winter storms...like...a category 1 winter storm?..is that going to say..a foot of snow and 60 mph winds possible..etc etc..and are they even going to..give a category 1-2-3-4 etc....alot of information still needs to be handed out to the public on this, we'll see this winter..IF..it does happen this winter, and see how TWC handles this.....they say with a named storm people pay more attention...well we shall see if that proves true or now..............i remember way back in new york when i lived there..weather said a foot or more of snow and high winds was coming...all i did was go out and buy some extra milk etc...and inside i was saying..great i have a few days off from work lol..........lets see how this goes.


NOAA already has a snowfall impact scale for the northeast. It is used in post-storm analysis based on snow amounts and the population affected by said amounts.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Agreed, there is no set criteria, only thing we know is they have to effect the east coast, and that's all. Nothing else, Not even a numbering system like WS01, WS02, Athena, WS03... ect.


I still go back to the point made yesterday regarding the geographic relativity of these systems.

Atlanta GA or Charleston SC is making National headlines if a fast-moving system decides to dump 3" of wet snow on Christmas Eve while that same event would be considered "no big deal" (and even welcomed) on the Megalopolis of the East Coast.
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, I work for the CBS affiliate, so we will not be referring to any named winter storm (thank goodness !!)
well i used to work at ABC network many years ago..and IF..this naming issue gains ground..im sure the networks will latch onto the idea and report same...time will tell..its new and remember...when they first started naming tropical systems..people laughed way back then also...not anymore thats for sure...the affiliates will follow suite when the networks report named systems...but this is all guesswork right now.
Lets hope TWC uses this scale, then it would be uniform with NOAA.

The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

NESIS ranks the severity of an East Coast snowstorm based on snowfall amount and the population of the affected areas. NESIS provides a quantitative measure of the snowstorm's potential socio-economic impact, compared with storms of the past, and assigns each large storm with one of the five categories notable, significant, major, crippling or extreme. This scale was developed because of the impact Northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of transportation and economic impact.



An example from the 2006-2007 winter season is the complex storm that struck the mid-Atlantic and New England on February 14 and 15, 2007. This storm was classified as "major," or a Category 3 on The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS).



The strong storm produced widespread snowfall across the mid-Atlantic, bringing the heaviest amounts to interior regions of the Northeast. Freezing rain, sleet and a thick coating of ice brought widespread power outages in Washington , D.C. , Maryland and Virginia . Snowfall amounts exceeded 20 inches throughout large parts of New York and New England , but the heavily populated urban corridor from Washington , D.C. , to Boston received less than 5 inches(Figure 1). While the highest amounts were outside the largest urban areas of the Northeast, the storm's ranking as Category 3 reflects its massive size and the high snowfall totals in less populated areas of the region.



NESIS was jointly developed by Paul J. Kocin, a former winter weather expert at The Weather Channel and Louis W. Uccellini, director of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md. Thomas R. Karl, director of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, led the effort to make NESIS operational.



NESIS scores are calculated at the National Climatic Data Center and are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers.



Link
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I still go back to the point made yesterday regarding the geographic relativity of these systems.

Atlanta GA or Charleston SC is making National headlines if a fast-moving system decides to dump 3" of wet snow on Christmas Eve while that same event would be considered "no big deal" (and even welcomed) on the Megalopolis of the East Coast.

so would it get named by TWC or not?
718:

Can always count on you to pull up good info, links, or maps on relevant topics...
I know my NBC affiliate won't be following TWC with their naming thing. Chief met Steve Weagle knows it's too confusing.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
718:

Can always count on you to pull up good info, links, or maps on relevant topics...

Your welcome. I read it yesterday, knew where to get it from.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


NOAA already has a snowfall impact scale for the northeast. It is used in post-storm analysis based on snow amounts and the population affected by said amounts.
exactly..after the storm has passed which is ok...but being post storm didnt alert the public on how bad the storm was going to be,how high the winds were going to be..would there be power outages and for how long, would i lose my roof..do i need to hurriedly order more fuel oil etc etc etc...alot can go into this winter warning thing, Im going to withold my own personal opinion until I see how this is handled and..IS the public now preparing better..just because..the storm has a name and are now more aware of the danger coming....its an interesting idea..but..alot more info is needed by the public and if its not given..the idea will fade away..we'll see...being in florida..it wont affect me much unless the winter storm goes into the gulf and brings freezing temps and high winds to my area..which..HAS happened in the past I hear..well we will see what happens
Quoting AussieStorm:

so would it get named by TWC or now?


That's what I am wondering. You certainly can't restrict the naming scheme JUST to systems affecting the Northeast. Just as tropical cyclones are named throughout the entire Atlantic Basin, so should winter storms that have the possibility to affect virtually all of the lower 48 within the conterminous U.S.

And then there's the issue of setting a criteria. But one must take into account that the criteria or threshold cannot be the same for everywhere geographically within the lower 48, since Southern States are much less equipped to handles even small snowstorms.
if tropical depression 15 don`t become Oscar today it may never will.
Quoting AussieStorm:

so would it get named by TWC or not?
exactly why..more info on exactly what determines a storm getting a name...they are being too tight lipped on How they are going to classify a storm..we'll see in the months to come..perhaps..they are at this moment..figuring out HOW to classify a winter storm?
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I still go back to the point made yesterday regarding the geographic relativity of these systems.

Atlanta GA or Charleston SC is making National headlines if a fast-moving system decides to dump 3" of wet snow on Christmas Eve while that same event would be considered "no big deal" (and even welcomed) on the Megalopolis of the East Coast.


The same could be made point could be made for a tropical storm hitting Florida... No big deal. but if it hit Maine.... Pretty big deal
Quoting TomballTXPride:


That's what I am wondering. You certainly can't restrict the naming scheme JUST to systems affecting the Northeast. Just as tropical cyclones are named throughout the entire Atlantic Basin, so should winter storms that have the possibility to affect virtually all of the lower 48 within the conterminous U.S.

And then there's the issue of setting a criteria. But one must take into account that the criteria or threshold cannot be the same for everywhere geographically within the lower 48, since Southern States are much less equipped to handles even small snowstorms.
you know alaska gets some Brutal winter storms huh and the northwestern states as well,My simple guess is..ALL states that get these winter storms will be included...i would guess ..hmmm say a state that isnt used to getting a foot of snow and high winds and blowing snow..hmmm lets say georgia or southern texas..the storm IS coming..perhaps with a name and a classification..the people would stand up and take notice..i dunno...people dont prepare NOW..until a hurricane is knocking down their house huh
Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri
..first off..Happy birthday!!..and no..the season is NOT over..October is the most dangerous month of all..for Florida the nws says..historically florida gets most of its tropical systems In october..more than any other month..but..most of these storms come from the gulf or carribean and not from africa..usually
Quoting Grothar:
Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.

But that's what we do here, Gro. We argue till our heart's delight. ;)
Quoting Grothar:
Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.
ROFLMAO..good one GRO
734. SuzK
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I really don't think storms are getting stronger. It's more the media is portraying this picture.


Easy for you to say if you haven't been living through them.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Lets hope TWC uses this scale, then it would be uniform with NOAA.

The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

NESIS ranks the severity of an East Coast snowstorm based on snowfall amount and the population of the affected areas. NESIS provides a quantitative measure of the snowstorm's potential socio-economic impact, compared with storms of the past, and assigns each large storm with one of the five categories notable, significant, major, crippling or extreme. This scale was developed because of the impact Northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of transportation and economic impact.



An example from the 2006-2007 winter season is the complex storm that struck the mid-Atlantic and New England on February 14 and 15, 2007. This storm was classified as "major," or a Category 3 on The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS).



The strong storm produced widespread snowfall across the mid-Atlantic, bringing the heaviest amounts to interior regions of the Northeast. Freezing rain, sleet and a thick coating of ice brought widespread power outages in Washington , D.C. , Maryland and Virginia . Snowfall amounts exceeded 20 inches throughout large parts of New York and New England , but the heavily populated urban corridor from Washington , D.C. , to Boston received less than 5 inches(Figure 1). While the highest amounts were outside the largest urban areas of the Northeast, the storm's ranking as Category 3 reflects its massive size and the high snowfall totals in less populated areas of the region.



NESIS was jointly developed by Paul J. Kocin, a former winter weather expert at The Weather Channel and Louis W. Uccellini, director of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md. Thomas R. Karl, director of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, led the effort to make NESIS operational.



NESIS scores are calculated at the National Climatic Data Center and are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers.



Link
great info there ty..and now we will see IF..TWC is going to name these storms BEFORE..or AFTER the storm passes.
Quoting LargoFl:
well i used to work at ABC network many years ago..and IF..this naming issue gains ground..im sure the networks will latch onto the idea and report same...time will tell..its new and remember...when they first started naming tropical systems..people laughed way back then also...not anymore thats for sure...the affiliates will follow suite when the networks report named systems...but this is all guesswork right now.


Yea, but it would have to be done at the government or national level, not by a private forecasting corporation like the Weather Channel. Its just like saying Accuguess or Weatherbell started issuing warnings on storms. Its going to be an exclusive product only found on the Weather Channel. Personally, I don't feel its a smart idea. A 4 inch snowfall in NYC is a nuisance, a 4 inch snowfall in Atlanta will shut down the city. Do we name it?
Storms are not getting any stronger,but they are affecting more people as would be expected.
738. SoAl
Naming winter storms? Maybe. Are they really as predictable and dangerous as a hurricane? Maybe not. I can only imagine illiterate news anchors trying to pronounce Xerxes!!! Most of us Canadians think Americans overreact to a snowstorm and perhaps being prepared might do y'all some good. Being from Alberta, I wish every little system wasn't called an "Alberta Clipper"! Many of those so called storms do not originate from here!!!
Quoting overwash12:
Storms are not getting any stronger,but they are affecting more people as would be expected.
and we should not forget..some of the older folks who froze to death in some of these monster winter storms etc..winter storms are dangerous in their own way, not just wind...how many people over the years died because they got stranded on a snow closed road..miles from no where, out of gas finally and froze to death..winter can be deadly alright..a different kind of danger than from tropical system dangers..we'll see how this goes over time...in europe they are quite used to it.
Weathercasters cast doubt about TWC naming of winter storms.

Link
Caneswatch, post 721, don't be too sure. TWC is owned by NBC. They might order their affiliates to follow the naming game.
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but it would have to be done at the government or national level, not by a private forecasting corporation like the Weather Channel. Its just like saying Accuguess or Weatherbell started issuing warnings on storms. Its going to be an exclusive product only found on the Weather Channel. Personally, I don't feel its a smart idea. A 4 inch snowfall in NYC is a nuisance, a 4 inch snowfall in Atlanta will shut down the city. Do we name it?
Dr. Masters referred specifically to the RSI in determining whether any particular storm would be named. The 'R' in RSI, of course, stands for "Regional", as the index is concerned with the regional impacts of a storm. And the different regions have different thresholds for snowstorm impact. From NOAA's RSI page: "For example, the thresholds for the Southeast are 2", 5", 10", and 15" of snowfall while the thresholds for the Northeast are 4", 10", 20", and 30" of snowfall."

I personally think naming winter storms is a great idea that should have been implemented years ago. I look forward to doing away with clunky names like "Snowmageddon III" or "The Great Northeast Blizzard of 1977". Of course, people can still call a storm whatever they'd like; this will simply allow the nation's largest non-government weather provider to streamline its own operations.
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but it would have to be done at the government or national level, not by a private forecasting corporation like the Weather Channel. Its just like saying Accuguess or Weatherbell started issuing warnings on storms. Its going to be an exclusive product only found on the Weather Channel. Personally, I don't feel its a smart idea. A 4 inch snowfall in NYC is a nuisance, a 4 inch snowfall in Atlanta will shut down the city. Do we name it?
good point made, I would have liked the NWS to have come out with this idea, but they didnt, and commercial politics will come into play now...accuweather lets say..will say well we..arent going to follow the TWC....but..if this naming thing catches on over the next few years..they wont be left behind..they will..follow suit, but for now..its all up in the air...people might have laughed way back when..at thomas edison too..Imagine..LIGHT coming from a glass tube..no way, i wont have THAT..in my house..no way......lol...people dont like..new things, its in our nature i guess..until it proves itself
Quoting LargoFl:
and we should not forget..some of the older folks who froze to death in some of these monster winter storms etc..winter storms are dangerous in their own way, not just wind...how many people over the years died because they got stranded on a snow closed road..miles from no where, out of gas finally and froze to death..winter can be deadly alright..a different kind of danger than from tropical system dangers..we'll see how this goes over time...in europe they are quite used to it.
Freezing to death has to be a horrible way to go... I don't mind some cooler weather once in awhile but keep the sub-zero temps away!
I'm on the fence about naming winter storms. I do think that giving a storm a name will make some people pay a little more attention. But I'd feel a whole lot better about it if it wasn't happening because a commercial television outlet decided to do it, because they have no set rules as to how to gauge severity of a named storm as in TD, TS and hurricane Cat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 designations for tropical storms (and even there we have differing opinions as to how well that works).

However, when Wichita was under a high "TorCon" according to TWC last summer, I used that designation to convince my mother (who has no basement) to get out of her house and to a safer place. No one but TWC uses TorCon, but it worked to get my mother's attention and helped keep her safe. The Wichita tornado hit within two miles of her house.

you know something folks..we just came thru a great pro and con conversation on this naming thing..TWC folks are probably reading all this conversation and looking at the points made here..on both sides..afterall we all come from different area's of the country and probably have different concerns area wise..lets hope they take all this into consideration when creating this naming thing...MORE info please....
Quoting overwash12:
Freezing to death has to be a horrible way to go... I don't mind some cooler weather once in awhile but keep the sub-zero temps away!
yeah freezing can be brutal..I remember the huge PAIN in my freezing fingers and face..it really hurts..its why..in some way..lol..i moved to florida..havent seen a snowflake in..gee i cant remember when lol
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
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Quoting Grothar:
Why don't you all wait for the first named winter storm and then argue about it like you do everything else. Should it be named? Why didn't they name it? I don't think they should have named that one! The next thing you all are going to argue if fried chicken should be the "original recipe" or crispy. That is probably a conspiracy, too. Trying to get us to increase the cholesterol in our bodies so doctors can make more money.
no discussion necessary.... ORIGINAL RECIPE!