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End in sight for Nadine; 96L no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on October 01, 2012

Never-ending Tropical Storm Nadine hit its peak intensity of 90 mph on Sunday afternoon, but is now steadily weakening as it encounters cool 22 - 23°C waters. Nadine is responsible for these cool waters, as the storm passed over the same location earlier in its life and mixed the cool waters to the surface. Nadine will have accumulated 19 days as a tropical cyclone later today, but the end is in sight. Nadine will be over waters no warmer than 24°C this week, and wind shear will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday. The HWRF model shows Nadine dissipating on Thursday as it moves through the Azores Islands; the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will pass through the Azores on Thursday as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds, then dissipate on Friday. If Nadine lasts until Wednesday evening, it will become one of the five longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclones of all-time. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms; I am counting Nadine's 24-hour stint as a subtropical storm as it being a tropical cyclone.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 11:53 am EDT Sunday, September 30, 2012. At the time, Nadine was at peak strength, with top winds of 90 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

96L off the coast of Africa no threat to land
A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa over the weekend (Invest 96L) has a moderate amount of spin and a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The storm is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is predicted to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday. The atmosphere surrounding 96L is fairly moist, and the disturbance does have a good degree of model support for becoming a tropical depression by late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. 96L is likely to get pulled northwards by a large trough of low pressure over the Central Atlantic late this week, and should not be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting AussieStorm:
During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms.



Good idea?????


With all the Greek names I'm surprised they pick "Saturn" over "Sparta".
Missed you in tropics chat the other day, Cody. How did that test ever go?

Okay. What's the deal, Guys? Why all the rain in Florida?

Quoting AussieStorm:
During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms.



Good idea?????


Kind of ridiculous, but fun, for sure. I know the Great Lakes region often have crazy enough storms to be named, some with hurricane-force winds and precipitation, so might as well name them, too, I guess?

They're all better than "Snowmaggeddon" or "SnowMyGod"
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to miss Nadine when it finally is gone for good.


Me too. I wonder if Nadine will find a way again to escape the trough.
I wrote a blog on Nadine, 96L, and the pattern changes ahead, check it out.
I taste Oscar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to miss Nadine when it finally is gone for good.


For a second I though I was looking at a new roller coaster plan, jk. Nadine has done loops and curves and everything she could and I'm just about done with her.

I have to go to school, bye everyone.
Quoting Grothar:

Hmm... two outliers now. I thought there was only one.
The funny thing is, BAMD thinks Nadine will make landfall in France!
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
I taste Oscar

I tasted Nadine.
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Good morning. First round of rain just missed us but it looks like a lot more chances to come over the next couple of days or so. We did get almost .25" yesterday morning.
Turns out the high they were forecasting of only 49 was just a glitch..just got me excited for nothing..
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hmm... two outliers now. I thought there was only one.
The funny thing is, BAMD thinks Nadine will make landfall in France!


I don't even want to go to France, why would Nadine?
Quoting Grothar:


I don't even want to go to France, why would Nadine?

I want to; I've never been to Europe.

T# are not out yet, but I'm thinking it will stay at T3.5/3.5.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I tasted Nadine.

Taste like chicken or fish?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I tasted Nadine.
Considering its a female name this doesn't sound right in my head...Lol but I know what you mean.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Taste like chicken or fish?

Tuna
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I want to; I've never been to Europe.

T# are not out yet, but I'm thinking it will stay at T3.5/3.5.


I don't think she will get much stronger, but it sure looks like she wants to go back west again.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Considering its a female name this doesn't sound right in my head...Lol but I know what you mean.

Yeah...didn't mean it that way. LOL. I just meant I had predicted her out ahead of time. And I was right. But that was just one time. My track record ain't that great. :)
Hmm/ I was right.
20121002 1200 34.3 37.9 T3.5/3.5 14L NADINE
Skyepony

I sent you an W/U mail :)
Quoting Grothar:


I don't think she will get much stronger, but it sure looks like she wants to go back west again.

Me neither, but I sure want her to.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Missed you in tropics chat the other day, Cody. How did that test ever go?

Okay. What's the deal, Guys? Why all the rain in Florida?


Test?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Test?

1. 2. 3...

LOL
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Eww I see the "S" word :) thank goodness I live in FL!
Is the season over for the cont US? Many weather patterns pushing off the coast one after the other.
say what??? Now the winter storms are going to be named?
T number up to 1.5 for 96L... slowly becoming a TD.
20121002 1200 12.0 38.4 T1.5/1.5 96L 96L
Quoting Bobbyweather:
T number up to 1.5 for 96L... slowly becoming a TD.
20121002 1200 12.0 38.4 T1.5/1.5 96L 96L
I would say it is a TD. It looks better than Helene or Norman ever did.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20121002 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 38.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 35.9W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 33.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE (AL142012) 20121002 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.3N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 120DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 34.8N LONM12 = 39.1W DIRM12 = 140DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 35.9N LONM24 = 39.4W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1020MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$
NNNN
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
say what??? Now the winter storms are going to be named?

Have you been sleeping. I musta posted that 2hrs ago. LOL
The ULL is moving NNE??
Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Have you been sleeping. I musta posted that 2hrs ago. LOL

yeah.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
say what??? Now the winter storms are going to be named?
sometimes these severe winter storms can do alot of damage,naming them might make people take more notice and prepare better for their coming, some of these winter storms really pack a big punch wind wise
Fresh ASCAT of NADINE..lookin good..
getting some good rain by me now at last............
OSCAT still looks broke..
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOR OUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
441 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. REFER TO
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. REFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
70% now................AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N32W 18N34W 15N36W 13N39W AND FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS HIGH.
Quoting Skyepony:
OSCAT still looks broke..


Broke??? .... OSCAT
Nadine



ex-Jelawat


ex-Ewiniar????


Quoting AussieStorm:


nope....



That Nadine says 2:36 Oct 1.. got anything more current? Those are all from yesterday.
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
A lot of Americans were in France in 44.

June was a Big Month there then.
Quoting Skyepony:


That Nadine says 2:36 Oct 1.. got anything more current? Those are all from yesterday.

Same image you posted @ #538

btw, I still can't work out what Zulu time is.
Winter storm names... Rome vs. Disney vs. MGM Animations?
Having both Jove and Zeus for the same year seems a bit over representing since they are Roman and Greek names for the same god.
Though I have to admit I like all of the Fantasy, Animation, and Mythology references, other than Freyr they don't seem particularly cold.

I would have gone with Ariel, Blythe, Crystal, etc. for winter storms. Akitla...the perfect winter fish storm name!Berfu, Lumi, there are alot of great cold names.
I'm partial to "Frosty" myself.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Same image you posted @ #538

btw, I still can't work out what Zulu time is.


#538 is from this morning & a different satellite.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Same image you posted @ #538

btw, I still can't work out what Zulu time is.


Maybe Google it.

Its Easy as drinking.
CONVERTING ZULU TIME TO LOCAL TIME

NOAA satellites use Zulu Time or Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as their time reference. The satellite images that appear on NOAA's Web sites are stamped in Zulu time.

To make the conversion to your local time, see the chart below. Find your local time in the first column. If you are on Eastern Daylight Saving Time (EDT), you would use the second column to find your Zulu Time/UTC. For instance, if it's 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Saving Time in Washington, D.C., it's 1500 hours in Zulu time/UTC. See legend below. (Back to Hurricanes Page.)
All Local wunderground radars display Local and UTC.




New Orleans Weather at a Glance

Weather Station - report

Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft
Station Select



Clear
Temperature
65.8 °F
Feels Like 65.8 °F
There are now 79 days left until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
They really are listening to this blog....
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
say what??? Now the winter storms are going to be named?


would have been great if they kept with the same concept and stuck to greek mythology..
"Burl Ives" would be a wonderful winter storm
Quoting Patrap:


Maybe Google it.

Its Easy as drinking.

Zulu is the same as UTC which is the same as GMT??
hence why I am confused about it. lol
Quoting AussieStorm:

Been posted #484.


Who is listening???


TWC
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
We have a Tornado on the ground

Live stream NBC Charlotte newscast
Quoting RitaEvac:
During the upcoming 2012-13 winter season The Weather Channel will name noteworthy winter storms. Our goal is to better communicate the threat and the timing of the significant impacts that accompany these events. The fact is, a storm with a name is easier to follow, which will mean fewer surprises and more preparation.



This is just plain silly. I highly doubt that anyone will take a storm named Gandolf any more seriously than just calling it what it is. Might actually just confuse folks more as this is not adopted by any major national or international agency or standards. Although I would love to see a Noreaster Chuck Norris some day though.