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Jelawat brushing Taiwan; Nadine enters its 15th day of life

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT on September 27, 2012

Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Jelawat taken at 1:03 am EDT Thursday, September 27, 2012. At the time, Jelawat had top winds of 155 mph, and an unusually large 43-mile diameter eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Jelawat's rain bands approaching Taiwan at 22:20 local time on September 27, 2012. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

Nadine enters its 15th day of life
The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Bertha, 2008: 17 named storm days
5) Inga, 1969: 17 named storm days
6) Kyle, 202: 16.75 named storm days
7) Inez, 1966: 16.25 named storm days
8) Faith, 1966: 15.5 named storm days
9) Nadine, 2012: 15.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 10:15 am EDT Wednesday, September 26, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic through October 3. Most of the models predict that an extratropical storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, off the coast of Texas. Phase Space Diagrams from Florida State University show that this low is expected to remain non-tropical as it moves east-northeast across the Gulf, potentially coming ashore over the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Doc. Quite a picture of Jelawat. Let's hope she weakens fast as she approaches land.

Those poor guys at the NHC with Nadine. I can just imagine how the conversation goes:

"I don't know, Harry, she looks like 55 knots to me" says Tom.
"No way, Tom, I think she's at 45 knots" says Harry.
Chief forecaster Dick says "OK, lets split the difference and call her 50 knots".
Everyone: "Sounds good to me. Let's get some breakfast".

Some days must be just this exciting at the NHC. :)
I'd say our season is most likely over now ... nothing shows up in forecast models ... :c)
Polluted cirrus east of Jelawat. Modis today.

Quoting wxmod:
Polluted cirrus east of Jelawat. Modis today.

this is a far more accurate caption for a photo such as this..
thanks for the new blog Dr. M!
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks, Doc. I think we jut found a new Theme Song for the Weather Channel.

Quoting Grothar:
Thanks, Doc. I think we jut found a new Theme Song for the Weather Channel.

The original version of Nadine by Chuck Berry from 1964 is much better.
Nadine will stick around for awhile most likely. I think Jelawat will make it back up to Cat. 5 streangth by Saturday, considering the fact that it has 155 mph winds currently.
This is a satellite photo of Suluwesi yesterday, you know, the pristine diving spot. This smog is being sucked up into Jelawat and, depending on what the pollutant is, could cause the storm to change course, weaken or even strengthen.
Quoting Melagoo:
I'd say our season is most likely over now ... nothing shows up in forecast models ... :c)


as always things could and can change

afternoon blog

just checking in on lunch be here till 1
Thank you for the new blog Dr. Masters
Thanks Dr Masters for the updated info ...
102 hrs. this might be a rather strong non-tropical low.

CMC at 114HR and GFS at 111HR in the GOM

All times in GMT. Derived from NHC's 27Sept.12pm ATCF data for TropicalStormNadine
27Sept.12am: TS.Nadine had been headed 203.6*SSWest @ 7.5mph(12.1km/h)
27Sept.06am: TS.Nadine had been headed 199.4*SSWest @ 6.1mph (9.8km/h)
27Sept.12pm: TS.Nadine had been headed 247.1*WSWest@ 8.8mph(14.1km/h)

FNC-Madeira :: AGA-Agadir :: VDE-ElHierro :: NDB-Nouadhibou

The 5 kinked lines traces Nadine's path on its 11th thru 15th days after becoming a NamedStorm
The southernwesternmost dot on the 2 connected straight lines is TS.Nadine's most recent position

Copy&paste fnc, aga, vde, ndb, 32.5n26.8w- 31.8n26.7w- 30.8n26.5w- 30.4n26.0w- 30.4n25.8w, 30.4n25.8w- 30.4n25.6w- 30.5n25.4w- 30.9n25.8w- 31.1n26.1w, 31.1n26.1w- 31.3n26.6w- 31.6n27.5w- 31.8n28.1w- 32.2n28.7w, 32.2n28.7w- 32.2n29.4w- 31.9n29.9w- 31.8n30.2w- 31.4n30.3w, 31.4n30.3w- 31.1n30.3w- 30.7n30.5w- 30.2n30.8w- 29.6n31.1w, 29.6n31.1w-29.1n31.3w, 29.1n31.3w-28.8n32.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
Quoting GTcooliebai:
102 hrs. this might be a rather strong non-tropical low.


May have enough time to transition into a fully or sub-tropical storm.
Thanks Doc. I thought Ginger was in 1971. Not that its a big deal.
Been a long time seems nothing has changed and most people I know are gone what are these new faces?.Some I remember.
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting Melagoo:
I'd say our season is most likely over now ... nothing shows up in forecast models ... :c)
I believe we will have one or two in October. There is plenty of warm water in the Western Caribbean.
You guys are going to love this, and I think this site is a great place to get initial exposure for this project.

This project is a wonderful idea, allowing people to classify tropical cyclones based on IR satellite imagery. They are going to use user data to construct a new global TC intensity record. It's great fun. I'll be hooked on it for a while.

http://www.cyclonecenter.org/
Quoting hydrus:
Thanks Doc. I thought Ginger was in 1971. Not that its a big deal.
1971 Hurricane Ginger's track:

Quoting hydrus:
I believe we will have one or two in October. There is plenty of warm water in the Western Caribbean.
Hey hydrus been awhile now.
no change of the old forecast of 4 more. changer dont work. looks dire with the non stop windshear
Quoting hydrus:
I believe we will have one or two in October. There is plenty of warm water in the Western Caribbean.
Nothing been using it though just been sitting there and sitting there.Its wasted energy.
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
Hey hydrus been awhile now.
Yes. Where did ya go?..
Quoting hydrus:
Yes. Where did ya go?..
I was banned and I told the admin to let me pass but they didn.t.Some of the old ones are gone where is flood man?
Where is NRAmy?
138 hrs. Ridge blocks its progression eastward and turns it north towards the Gulf Coast.



132 hrs. Lifted Index:

276 hrs. one last Cape-Verde Storm for the year?

Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
I was banned and I told the admin to let me pass but they didn.t.Some of the old ones are gone where is flood man?
He is around, but not often. He seems to work more now that his back is better. I feel October has a good chance of producing a storm or two, but the MJO is still not in a position to increase the chances of formation anytime soon.
Quoting hydrus:
He is around, but not often. He seems to work more now that his back is better. I feel October has a good chance of producing a storm or two, but the MJO is still not in a position to increase the chances of formation anytime soon.
We need something else besides Nadine out there.Shes a loner for life.
Fantasy land, but double wow! Strengthening Cape-Verde Storm and Deep Trough over the US.

Thank you Dr. Masters, Persistant Nadine lives on.
12Z GFS big snow!
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
We need something else besides Nadine out there.Shes a loner for life.
Well, she has not really beat anyone up yet, I give her points for that.
Quoting hydrus:
Well, she has not really beat anyone up yet, I give her points for that.
Maybe she's one of those loners that looks scary from the outside so no one won't mess with her.
Season's not done yet folks, in fact I think the season will last until Nov. and my 18/9/3 prediction still stands.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Season's not done yet folks, in fact I think the season will last until Nov. and my 18/9/3 prediction still stands.
How many hours out is that cape verde storm? Isn't it a little late for that to be happening?
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
How many hours out is that cape verde storm? Isn't it a little late for that to be happening?
It starts to take shape around the 9th and here is the points of origin for storms that have formed between the 1st and the 10th of Oct. So definitely winding down, but not out of the realm of possibility.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Season's not done yet folks, in fact I think the season will last until Nov. and my 18/9/3 prediction still stands.
My numbers were 14/8/3. So I may have underestimated this year. We are currently 14/8/1..
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It starts to take shape around the 9th and here is the points of origin for storms that have formed between the 1st and the 10th of Oct. So definitely winding down, but not out of the realm of possibility.

Boy would it be something if it happned! The blog would go nutty!.
That is a whole lot of sheer over the GOM for any kind of development.
Anyone else notice the low number of sunspots this year? we are about 20 under predicted.
surges of moisture are appearing just w of the windwards. seems to be on the uptick.
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
I was banned and I told the admin to let me pass but they didn.t.Some of the old ones are gone where is flood man?


Good to see you..I hope you can stick around a while this time and not get banned again..its always nice to see some of the old blogger coming back to the site.
Quoting auburn:


Good to see you..I hope you can stick around a while this time and not get banned again..its always nice to see some of the old blogger coming back to the site.
I hope so to.Its a shame I was banned during the 2010 atlantic hurricane season.It was so interesting and the storms were fun to track.
Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:
I hope so to.Its a shame I was banned during the 2010 atlantic hurricane season.It was so interesting and the storms were fun to track.


Just keep your nose clean..they have really clamped down around here the past few months..even added new rules to the rules for the road..seem to have gotten rid of most of the trolls and spam..I think it a better place myself.
how do you get banned? i'd be interested to learn what you did, if it's not prying.
This looks interesting.
Quoting plutorising:
how do you get banned? i'd be interested to learn what you did, if it's not prying.


Well in this blog(the Drs)if you dont follow the Rules for the road is the best way to get banned.and they are as follows.
Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic.
No monomania.
No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.
Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
No spamming.
No spamming.
Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.
Today marks the 27th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria. I flew out of Newark just 12 hours before she hit..Boardwalk damage in Ocean City, New JerseyFormed September 16, 1985
Dissipated October 2, 1985 (Became extratropical on September 27)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
145 mph (230 km/h)
Lowest pressure 919 mbar (hPa); 27.14 inHg
Fatalities 8 direct
Damage $900 million (1985 USD)
Areas affected North Carolina, New Jersey, Long Island, New England, Atlantic Canada.
Gloria near peak intensity on September 24
Good afternoon everyone. It has been a pleasant quiet day here in the Keys. I even had dew on the car this morning. Hadn't noticed it before, but it was probably there. But I can officially say that fall is here because of the dew. I had a heck of a time signing in this morning. This site wouldn't let me. LOL That's what I get for signing off. Sometimes I forget and it keeps me signed on. Anyway admin got it fixed. Have a great day everyone.
sorry, auburn, i've read the rules of the road and try to follow them (mainly by lurking).

it's just that, like a few days ago, when everybody was in a slagging war over some global warming topic - they were all breaking the rules of the road, and nothing seemed to happen to them (unless i missed something). maybe there's a breaking point. i do think people should be banned for such timewasting posts, but it seemed like they were enjoying themselves...
Flooding from Hurricane Gloria, Cape May, New Jersey.
Date 26 September 1985..WIKI..Long Island and New York
Boardwalk damage in Ocean City, New Jersey

Though Gloria hit Long Island with winds of 85 mph (140 km/h), wind gusts reached 115 mph (185 km/h) in eastern Long Island. Islip, New York recorded a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h). However, few other wind reports were available from the island, as other weather instruments were damaged. Weather forecasters believe that damage across parts of Long Island indicated winds in the Category Three range, as evidence of the damage received at MacArthur Airport. Because the hurricane arrived at low tide, storm surges were generally low, peaking at 6.9 feet (2.1 m) at Battery Park. Because it moved quickly, Gloria failed to produce significant rainfall amounts, and caused only 3.4 inches (86 mm) of rain in Central Park.

Gloria's high winds caused significant damage across Long Island and southeastern New York. The area hit the worst was eastern Long Island, where high wind gusts blew thousands of trees into buildings and across roads. The broadcast tower of WBLI-FM toppled on Bald Hill in Farmingville. In addition, the winds ripped roofs off of many buildings, including hangars at the MacArthur Airport and the roof of the Islip Police Station. Prolonged exposure to high winds and waves led to moderate beach erosion, washing away several piers and docks. The storm surge, though relatively weak, destroyed 48 houses on the ocean side of the island. Gloria's high winds left 683,000 people in New York without power, with some lacking electricity for over eleven days. Even though damage amounted to $300 million ($532 million in 2005 USD), due to well-executed evacuations there was only one casualty, resulting from a falling tree.
Quoting plutorising:
sorry, auburn, i've read the rules of the road and try to follow them (mainly by lurking).

it's just that, like a few days ago, when everybody was in a slagging war over some global warming topic - they were all breaking the rules of the road, and nothing seemed to happen to them (unless i missed something). maybe there's a breaking point. i do think people should be banned for such timewasting posts, but it seemed like they were enjoying themselves...


Well as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic they are allowed from what I understand..as long as folks dont get into name calling and personal attacks..I think this is a new rule also..I dont remember seeing it till a couple of weeks ago.

I think they are trying to encourage civilized discussion/debate even on this blog..


Looks like its setting up for a wide area of much needed rain over the next five days.
Quoting Hurrihistory:
The original version of Nadine by Chuck Berry from 1964 is much better.


Yes, I know, but the quality was bad and you couldn't hear it well, so I made an executive decision to play the Waylon Jennings version. That is why I put the credit in for Chuck Berry on the video.
Quoting calkevin77:


Looks like its setting up for a wide area of much needed rain over the next five days.


Wish all of that rain would move up here to the Midwest .. we are still way behind on rainfall .. Farmers need the rain now for next years crops ..
Quoting calkevin77:


Looks like its setting up for a wide area of much needed rain over the next five days.


I hope this come to pass..its pretty dry here in my part of Alabama..but it seems every time I get excited over the possibility of some rain it never materializes..I know others need it as well.
Quoting plutorising:
sorry, auburn, i've read the rules of the road and try to follow them (mainly by lurking).

it's just that, like a few days ago, when everybody was in a slagging war over some global warming topic - they were all breaking the rules of the road, and nothing seemed to happen to them (unless i missed something). maybe there's a breaking point. i do think people should be banned for such timewasting posts, but it seemed like they were enjoying themselves...


I do my share of lurking here on the Drs blog also..just have gotten to where I post some..I dont know much about weather for one thing..and up until the past few weeks there was just too much trolling going on on this blog..I am happy to see that it is getting better..I feel more comfortable posting here now.
Quoting calkevin77:


Looks like its setting up for a wide area of much needed rain over the next five days.
Interesting based on this chart it looks like the front does not make it all the way down to the peninsula of FL.
I see our eternal TS Nadine is looking healthier today.

Quoting whitewabit:


Wish all of that rain would move up here to the Midwest .. we are still way behind on rainfall .. Farmers need the rain now for next years crops ..


I hear you on that. I'm hoping that this fall and into early winter a pineapple express type pattern sets up off the pacific and the moisture train catches some troughs both north and south sending some precip your way. We’re making up for last year’s drought slowly here in TX so I guess slow and steady is the key. We’ll take what we can get.
Quoting auburn:


I hope this come to pass..its pretty dry here in my part of Alabama..but it seems every time I get excited over the possibility of some rain it never materializes..I know others need it as well.


Hopefully as its starting to cool off the ground out your way wont be so warm and actually break the virga cycle. It seems like the last 6 months or so a heat rain shadow has built up out there. One good storm your way and I think you'll have a more favorable pattern though. Fingers crossed.
Quoting JLPR2:
I see our eternal TS Nadine is looking healthier today.

Hi, you're back haven't seen you in awhile, unless I miss you every time you post now?
I walked into the cornfield across the road from me and this is what I found ..

1 out of 20 10 inches long
4 out of 20 7 inches long
13 out of 20 5 inches long or less
2 out of 20 with no ears developed

All due to the lack of rain ... ears should be 12 inches long and about three inches around .. all that I found were much smaller ..


NADINE GETS ABSORBED....FINALLY OUT!
Quoting calkevin77:


Hopefully as its starting to cool off the ground out your way wont be so dry and actually break the virga cycle. It seems like the last 6 months or so a heat rain shadow has built up out there. One good storm your way and I think you'll have a more favorable pattern though. Fingers crossed.


We had some cool air last week..it was nice..been back up in the 90s for most of this week,I am looking forward to winter myself..hope we have a winter this year..we missed out on it last year.
Quoting whitewabit:
I walked into the cornfield across the road from me and this is what I found ..

1 out of 20 10 inches long
4 out of 20 7 inches long
13 out of 20 5 inches long or less
2 out of 20 with no ears developed

All due to the lack of rain ... ears should be 12 inches long and about three inches around .. all that I found were much smaller ..


Its the same here..although I must say those small ears are packed with flavor.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Interesting based on this chart it looks like the front does not make it all the way down to the peninsula of FL.


Yeah I was thinking that too. It’s a five day cumulative so it’s anyone’s guess. Not sure but there may be a blocking ridge hanging out up in GA for a day or so.
Aubie ... that is a reduction of yield of 40 to 50% ..
Hard on the pocket book
Quoting whitewabit:
Aubie ... that is a reduction of yield of 40 to 50% ..
Hard on the pocket book


Yea that is true..
The ATCF says Nadin is up to 55 knots:

AL, 14, 2012092718, , BEST, 0, 287N, 325W, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1014, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
It is a beautiful day and 88 degrees here in Dunedin, FL.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Scientists face four years in prison for failing to predict earthquake



I heard this shook up the entire scientific industry.
New Orleans Weather at a Glance

Weather Station - report

Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft

Scattered Clouds
Temperature
87.4 F
Feels Like 93 F
Quoting Patrap:
New Orleans Weather at a Glance

Weather Station - report

Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft

Scattered Clouds
Temperature
87.4 F
Feels Like 93 F


Afternoon Pat..about the same here weather wise..
We're waiting for rain here in TX. People and animals all looking to the sky for soaking rains that may or may not come Friday thru Sunday.



Quoting auburn:


Afternoon Pat..about the same here weather wise..


Sure is HOT-sui aub,..u betcha
Quoting Patrap:


Sure is HOT-sui aub,..u betcha


yea,we had some cool air last week..but its gone..back to hot and sticky..


just in on break
Glad that stationary front finally edged a little farther south, first glimpse of the sun since Monday. Must be a little clearer further north, don't often see this: Spfld, IL - 73, 70 here, and StL only 68.

Whitewabit this summer was first time I've seen corn with tassels and no ears at all. Granted, later corn on white clay soil, but usually you at least see a nubbin ear. We weren't as dry as the rest of the state either. But I also can't ever remember a drought year where we got absolutely no moisture during the tassel period. So dry there was very little dew in the morning to help get some pollination.
At least the sun is knocked out from the high clouds and numerous cumulus today.
Look For The Harvest Moon This Weekend



Take a moment to gaze at the beautiful harvest moon this Saturday, September 29th.
Last significant rain at my place was September 1st, only 0.99" with only a few other periods of 0.16" to a trace....which were evaporated into thin air in a matter of hours in the burning sun.
Harvest Moon

Come a little bit closer
Hear what I have to say
Just like children sleepin'
We could dream this night away.

But there's a full moon risin'
Let's go dancin' in the light
We know where the music's playin'
Let's go out and feel the night.

Because I'm still in love with you
I want to see you dance again
Because I'm still in love with you
I tell you what if rain doesn't start in the bread basket this fall/winter, our food supply gettin' ready to take turn for the worse.



Getting out of control if you ask me
A funnel cloud has been sighted with these storms:

Quoting RitaEvac:
I tell you what if rain doesn't start in the bread basket this fall/winter, our food supply gettin' ready to take turn for the worse.



Getting out of control if you ask me
The outlook isn't too great for the western two-thirds. Some of Texas and the Mississippi/Ohio River valleys improve, but the Northwest joins in on the "fun":

drought
ok got too go be back after 5
Quoting auburn:


I hope this come to pass..its pretty dry here in my part of Alabama..but it seems every time I get excited over the possibility of some rain it never materializes..I know others need it as well.

Looks like our best chance for rain is Sunday, and even that will be scattered thunderstorms. At least we're set up for about a week of return flow from the Gulf, which should help kick off some afternoon thunderstorms for next week, but the chances aren't much better than climatology, ony about 20-30%. Sure warmed up fast though. I just spent two hours in the sun fixing the ignition unit on my water heater and I'm trying to cool off again while waiting for some hot water to take a shower. My weather station is showing 91 now, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. It has been nice not having to run the A/C at night but it looks like that's coming to an end for the next five days or so.
Miriam's looking a little empty...

El Nino better kick in soon
Good afternoon everyone, I see Nadine is looking better.

Quoting sar2401:

Looks like our best chance for rain is Sunday, and even that will be scattered thunderstorms. At least we're set up for about a week of return flow from the Gulf, which should help kick off some afternoon thunderstorms for next week, but the chances aren't much better than climatology, ony about 20-30%. Sure warmed up fast though. I just spent two hours in the sun fixing the ignition unit on my water heater and I'm trying to cool off again while waiting for some hot water to take a shower. My weather station is showing 91 now, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. It has been nice not having to run the A/C at night but it looks like that's coming to an end for the next five days or so.


Yea we had all the doors and windows open last week..sad to have to turn the AC back on..but its to hot and sticky not to.Hope you get some rain were ever you might be!
Watching 94E in the EPAC as it gets drawled north and pulled into MX and it's moisture pulled into the trough over TX, that is supposed to open the door for widespread rains for TX.
STY Jelawat has easily surpassed Cyclone Funso of the Southern Hemisphere as the storm with the highest ACE this year, and it will continue to add to its total for the next couple days.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Scientists face four years in prison for failing to predict earthquake

Sounds like this is a case of scientist not using probabilities when explaining risks. If he really told the Civil Protection Agency there was "no danger" that a larger earthquake would happen, he stepped out of his role as a scientist and started playing with a crystal ball. It's not clear to me why he should be facing a prison term, but it was pretty dumb behavior for someone who should have known better.
As of the new advisory Jelawat is expected to be at about 110kts as it goes over Okinawa, and it's expected to be a minimal typhoon as it heads into Tokyo:

Quoting auburn:


Yea we had all the doors and windows open last week..sad to have to turn the AC back on..but its to hot and sticky not to.Hope you get some rain were ever you might be!

I'm over in Prattville. No rain here since September 17, although we are still ahead of normal for September. Actually had a couple nights in the last week where I turned on my little electric heater to take the chill off in the morning. Very nice compared to te long, hot summer we've had. If this front to the north ever gets moving, we should cool off again Tuesday or Wednesday. Might also get a surface low forming off the tail end of the front over LA once the front moves into the Gulf, which might be interesting.
Quoting Patrap:
Look For The Harvest Moon This Weekend



Take a moment to gaze at the beautiful harvest moon this Saturday, September 29th.


Thanks Pat! I was wondering when and meant to look it up. Last year was the first year I viewed it where we live now and my husband was not here at the time. It was so awesome to see I can't wait to see it again and take a few pictures :)
There are now 84 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
Quoting icmoore:


Thanks Pat! I was wondering when and meant to look it up. Last year was the first year I viewed it where we live now and my husband was not here at the time. It was so awesome to see I can't wait to see it again and take a few pictures :)


I've taken a lot of pictures of harvest moons over the years, none were even close to that beauty Pat posted.
114. icmoore

Enjoy it fer sure.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A funnel cloud has been sighted with these storms:



The plains of Colorado get frequent funnel clouds, but they generally stay in the F1-F2 range due to the destabilizing effect of the nearby mountains. For those not familiar with Colorado geography, the west half of this radar image is mostly mountains and the east half is just about as flat as Kansas. You can actually use the towns of Fort Collins, Denver, Colorado Springs, and Pueblo as an approximate line showing where the plains give way to mountains as each of these towns is located at the point of transition.



... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for northwestern El Paso
County until 245 PM MDT...

At 221 PM MDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous
storm was located near Woodland Park... or 14 miles northwest of
Colorado Springs... moving east at 15 mph.

Rotation has increased with this storm between 215 PM and 220 PM.

Locations impacted include...
west side of Colorado Springs.
Today's wunderground Daily Double Double question.

What instrument does Dr. Jeff Masters play?

Quoting Patrap:
There are now 84 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.


won't we all die a couple weeks before that?

Howdy Pat, good to see ya.
Quoting Patrap:
Today's wunderground Daily Double Double question.

What instrument does Dr. Jeff Masters play?




The weather bell?
Quoting biff4ugo:
That is a whole lot of sheer over the GOM for any kind of development.
Anyone else notice the low number of sunspots this year? we are about 20 under predicted.

Yes, we ham radio operators have certainly noticed. We're supposed to be approaching a sunspot maxima and, instead, it's worse than last year, when it was supposed to be neutral. Long distance communications on HF are terrible, with lots of atmospheric noise. The predictions for sunspot activity have been way off this year.
Quoting indianrivguy:


won't we all die a couple weeks before that?

Howdy Pat, good to see ya.


Oh I hope not big Guy to my East.

: )

Good to see yas as well.
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 84 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.


I remember when you typed that there were 284 days left and 184 days left. We're making progress.
Quoting sar2401:

I'm over in Prattville. No rain here since September 17, although we are still ahead of normal for September. Actually had a couple nights in the last week where I turned on my little electric heater to take the chill off in the morning. Very nice compared to te long, hot summer we've had. If this front to the north ever gets moving, we should cool off again Tuesday or Wednesday. Might also get a surface low forming off the tail end of the front over LA once the front moves into the Gulf, which might be interesting.


Prattville...howdy neighbor!!!,I am in Beauregard (Opelika/Auburn area)my little hill is in the dark red area on the drought map,storms seem to die out just before they get to me here.
Quoting RitaEvac:


I remember when you typed that there were 284 days left and 184 days left. We're making progress.


Somewhere a Mayan stone carver is giggling big time I do believe.
]
]
Wonder why he'd be laughing
I asked the ancient Chinese auricle, the I-Ching that same question and the answer bedazzled me fer sho'
While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.

Jeff lives in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area with his wife and daughter. He and his wife are active in managing a 32-acre natural area owned by their neighborhood association. They spend a lot of time killing invasive plants such as garlic mustard, glossy buckthorn, and Asian bittersweet, and planting native species to take their places. Jeff enjoys hiking, cross country skiing, vegetarian cooking, and meditation. His favorite places are Havasu Canyon in the Grand Canyon and the Boiling River in Yellowstone National Park. His favorite book is Autobiography of a Yogi, and his favorite movie is Monty Python and the Holy Grail. He enjoys listening to Tangerine Dream, Loreena McKennitt, Anugama, and Beethoven. He occasionally picks up his While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.

Jeff lives in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area with his wife and daughter. He and his wife are active in managing a 32-acre natural area owned by their neighborhood association. They spend a lot of time killing invasive plants such as garlic mustard, glossy buckthorn, and Asian bittersweet, and planting native species to take their places. Jeff enjoys hiking, cross country skiing, vegetarian cooking, and meditation. His favorite places are Havasu Canyon in the Grand Canyon and the Boiling River in Yellowstone National Park. His favorite book is Autobiography of a Yogi, and his favorite movie is Monty Python and the Holy Grail. He enjoys listening to Tangerine Dream, Loreena McKennitt, Anugama, and Beethoven. He occasionally picks up his trombone, but hasn't played much since freshman year in college, when he played with the University of Michigan Marching Band.

You can email Jeff at jmasters@wunderground.com., but hasn't played much since freshman year in college, when he played with the University of Michigan Marching Band.
Quoting indianrivguy:


won't we all die a couple weeks before that?

Howdy Pat, good to see ya.


Aye nope, the solstice is on December 21st.
Hmm... that does look like it produced a funnel at least for a few minutes there...

EDIT: removed radar loops since storm had passed and I was getting sick of waiting for them to load/display. :)
When Nadine get's lonely she visits the Azores again for company Lolol.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Aye nope, the solstice is on December 21st.


I though we all die on the 12th... have I got my Mayan death days confused again?
Quoting indianrivguy:


I though we all die on the 12th... have I got my Mayan death days confused again?

We die on December 21, 2012.
Quoting indianrivguy:


I've taken a lot of pictures of harvest moons over the years, none were even close to that beauty Pat posted.


Yeah, but I still like to give it a shot...or two :)
Quoting Patrap:
While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.

Jeff lives in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area with his wife and daughter. He and his wife are active in managing a 32-acre natural area owned by their neighborhood association. They spend a lot of time killing invasive plants such as garlic mustard, glossy buckthorn, and Asian bittersweet, and planting native species to take their places. Jeff enjoys hiking, cross country skiing, vegetarian cooking, and meditation. His favorite places are Havasu Canyon in the Grand Canyon and the Boiling River in Yellowstone National Park. His favorite book is Autobiography of a Yogi, and his favorite movie is Monty Python and the Holy Grail. He enjoys listening to Tangerine Dream, Loreena McKennitt, Anugama, and Beethoven. He occasionally picks up his While working on his Ph.D., he co-founded The Weather Underground, Inc. in 1995. He wrote much of the software that ingests and formats the raw NWS data used on the website, and created most of the imagery on the tropical page. Jeff currently serves as Director of Meteorology and on the Board of Directors for the company.

Jeff lives in the Ann Arbor, Michigan area with his wife and daughter. He and his wife are active in managing a 32-acre natural area owned by their neighborhood association. They spend a lot of time killing invasive plants such as garlic mustard, glossy buckthorn, and Asian bittersweet, and planting native species to take their places. Jeff enjoys hiking, cross country skiing, vegetarian cooking, and meditation. His favorite places are Havasu Canyon in the Grand Canyon and the Boiling River in Yellowstone National Park. His favorite book is Autobiography of a Yogi, and his favorite movie is Monty Python and the Holy Grail. He enjoys listening to Tangerine Dream, Loreena McKennitt, Anugama, and Beethoven. He occasionally picks up his trombone, but hasn't played much since freshman year in college, when he played with the University of Michigan Marching Band.

You can email Jeff at jmasters@wunderground.com., but hasn't played much since freshman year in college, when he played with the University of Michigan Marching Band.


Nice read Pat.
Winter solstice?.Yeah and I'll be waiting on candy man to pay me a visit sometime next week.Ha ha :D.
Quoting Patrap:
Today's wunderground Daily Double Double question.

What instrument does Dr. Jeff Masters play?

He beats the drum for climate science, plays denialists like a violin (especially those who'd rather fiddle while Rome burns), he's clear as a bell on tropical meteorology, and he hits all the right notes on weather in general--yet he never toots his own horn. Oh, and he also plays a mean trombone.

(I guess your question struck a chord with me. Music to my ears, you might say...)

I'll stop now. Better change my tune, I suppose...
Quoting Neapolitan:
He beats the drum for climate science, plays denialists like a violin (especially those who'd rather fiddle while Rome burns), he's clear as a bell on tropical meteorology, and he hits all the right notes on weather in general--yet he never toots his own horn. Oh, and he also plays a mean trombone.

(I guess your question struck a chord with me. Music to my ears, you might say...)

I'll stop now. Better change my tune, I suppose...


Yea stop before you get the Band...hehehee
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We die on December 21, 2012.


wow.. you gave me an extra 9 days!!! woot!!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We die on December 21, 2012.
No Christmas presents this year?
Quoting Patrap:
I asked the ancient Chinese auricle, the I-Ching that same question and the answer bedazzled me fer sho'


He must have had a big "heart" if he was an auricle.
Quoting Grothar:


He must have had a big "heart" if he was an auricle.


Friends, Romans and Citizens, lend me your auricle.
Quoting Patrap:
Today's wunderground Daily Double Double question.

What instrument does Dr. Jeff Masters play?

Actually the Sling Psychrometer of the early 70's made a beautiful whirling sound if spun fast enough
<
Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | Report urges NOAA to narrow focus of JPSS satellite
....
The review board found NOAA's GOES-R geostationary satellite program in better shape than JPSS [Joint Polar Satellite System], but the report noted pressing budget concerns and said there was only a 48 percent chance the GOES-R spacecraft would meet its scheduled launch date in late 2015.

The report's sharpest criticisms were aimed at NOAA's management practices and the JPSS program, which targets launch of the agency's next polar-orbiting weather satellite by early 2017.

Based on the expected five-year lifetime of Suomi NPP, which launched in October 2011, the independent review team projected there would likely be a gap of at least 18 months between the end of NPP's mission and when JPSS 1 becomes operational.
....
Mars rover just found really good evidence that water once flowed on Mars. (I will say that liquid of some sort flowed -- not quite sure if it was indeed H2O.)

Wouldn't it be something if they found evidence that beings once lived on Mars, destroyed their planet and moved to 'Earth' to avoid extinction...

Link: Link

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=201 2-305

This was recently put up on my local NWS homepage. It contains a detailed overview of the Northeast severe weather outbreak on June 1, 2011. There's a massive amount of information in here, much of which most of us can't understand, but even a quick skim through it proved very informative for me. There's some cool images in it as well.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We die on December 21, 2012.

...when cat 8 Nadine covers the U.S. with 900 mile per hour winds and a 19000 foot surge :)
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

...when cat 8 Nadine covers the U.S. with 900 mile per hour winds and a 19000 foot surge :)
That would put your eye out
Quoting ANOTHERBUSTLIKEISAID:
why are people saying that the season is almosy over when it was long over for central florida back in july
Actually October is ,and has not been a very good month regarding hurricanes in Florida.... Wilma comes to mind.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
That would put your eye out

yup.
Wow, look at all that T'storm action on the African coast.
You need to delete your post..............This is a family site with many young people here......... Not what this site is about.......
Looks like the same spammer is back that we had this morning
Quoting Dakster:
Mars rover just found really good evidence that water once flowed on Mars. (I will say that liquid of some sort flowed -- not quite sure if it was indeed H2O.)

Wouldn't it be something if they found evidence that beings once lived on Mars, destroyed their planet and moved to 'Earth' to avoid extinction...

Link: Link

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=201 2-305



Maybe they can find my birth certificate.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
You need to delete your post..............This is a family site with many young people here......... Not what this site is about.......


I was wondering what you are talking about but I see a bunch of missing posts. One of the things I like about this blog is that in spite of spirited debate, people don't descend to profanity and bad language. And we do have a lot of young people on here, though it could be they could teach us some new words.
Quoting TropicTraveler:


I was wondering what you are talking about but I see a bunch of missing posts. One of the things I like about this blog is that in spite of spirited debate, people don't descend to profanity and bad language. And we do have a lot of young people on here, though it could be they could teach us some new words.
Tropic.......I think the "bad guy" deleted his posts......Same thing happened this morning
167. wxmod
These ten mile wide, hundreds of miles long smog lines are over the Pacific off WA. MODIS today

Quoting wxmod:
These ten mile wide, hundreds of miles long smog lines are over the Pacific off WA. MODIS today

wxmod.....Are you saying they are something other than condensation trails? (contrails)
Nadine is 15 days old.



DSL guy finally got that mess figured out.


Now I can get on Wunderground again.

Yeah.
Quoting wxmod:
These ten mile wide, hundreds of miles long smog lines are over the Pacific off WA. MODIS today


Those are contrails...from jets.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those are contrails...from airplanes.
jets
172. wxmod
Here's a satellite photo of Washington today. MODIS

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those are contrails...from airplanes.
wx13..I wasn't trying to be rude... But airplanes have propellers, jets have , "jet engines". The exhaust at heights of 35,000 ft freeze leaving a contrail... Actually, and also, When my ex was stationed at Eielson AFB AK , many, many years ago I was with him. He was a weather observer... That is where I got my interest. Anyway... When the "jets" took off from the base in extreme cold temperatures (minus 50 and 60) they would leave a contrail over the whole base including the tarmac and the runway which they sometimes had to close until the contrail drifted off... Ice fog is a real problem in the extreme temperature that most people don't experience in the lower 48.
174. wxmod
I sure wish that storm front would split and send some rain to dry, parched California. Maybe if I wish hard enough, it will happen.

Quoting wxmod:
Here's a satellite photo of Washington today. MODIS

Sure looks like cirrus clouds at an altitude of nearly 35,000 ft. You think otherwise?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
23:30 PM IST September 27 2012
=====================================

The low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighborhood now lies as a well marked low pressure..
For once, Nadine does not look like complete crap.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2012 Time : 214500 UTC
Lat : 28:32:27 N Lon : 32:49:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 994.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -52.2C Cloud Region Temp : -59.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92km
- Environmental MSLP : 1016mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 48.9 degrees

************************************************* ***



small low pressure area near 13N 86E in the Bay Of Bengal
179. VR46L
GFS 18Z

120 hrs looks like a bit of a rainmaker in the Northern Gulf Coast and Nadine ...So bored of her


180. wxmod
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sure looks like cirrus clouds at an altitude of nearly 35,000 ft. You think otherwise?


Those are smoke plumes of huge fires. There are absolutely no cirrus in the photo of Washington.
Check it out on inciweb.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Interesting based on this chart it looks like the front does not make it all the way down to the peninsula of FL.



Yeah well, if you didn't know any better and all you did was follow HPC maps all summer long, you'd be convinced Florida has hardly gotten any rain LOL. They usually forecast much less than we get.

However though, rainfall has been pretty scarce around Tampa Bay for September, the last few projected rainy patterns didn't amount to much, and now forecasters are sort of backing off on the wet pattern they were talking about the last few days. It seems like our very rainy streak may be over, or has winded down anyway.
New watch could be issued for part of the Mid Atlantic:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA INTO MD INCLUDING PARTS OF THE DC AND
BALTIMORE METRO AREAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272216Z - 272245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY ACROSS NRN
VA INTO MD INCLUDING PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METRO
AREAS.

DISCUSSION...AT 22Z...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM FAR NRN VA EWD TO INVOF WASHINGTON DC. THE AIR MASS
IN THIS REGION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER NRN VA THUS FAR.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AS THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN PA
ADVANCES EWD AIDING IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.


The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

District of Columbia
parts of Maryland
northern Virginia
eastern West Virginia Panhandle
coastal waters

Effective this Thursday night from 635 PM until midnight EDT.

Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles south southeast
of Baltimore Maryland to 65 miles west southwest of Washington
district of colum. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou4).
Jelawat is going through another EWRC. This one is very fortunately timed as it will not have time to recover and will not be as strong as forecast as it goes over Okinawa.



The current eye has become ragged and cloud filled:

Quoting Dakster:
Mars rover just found really good evidence that water once flowed on Mars. (I will say that liquid of some sort flowed -- not quite sure if it was indeed H2O.)

Wouldn't it be something if they found evidence that beings once lived on Mars, destroyed their planet and moved to 'Earth' to avoid extinction...

Link: Link

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=201 2-305



It is funny how people desperately want to believe things like that.

It's a great science experiment to send stuff to mars. But there is no evidence there were ever beings on mars, just as there is no evidence that doing dances around fires with masks on your faces wards away evil spirits...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wxmod.....Are you saying they are something other than condensation trails? (contrails)
Well he did say "smog".
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tropic.......I think the "bad guy" deleted his posts......Same thing happened this morning


That troll can edit his post but cant remove them that I know of..I bet admin got them.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Jelawat is going through another EWRC. This one is very fortunately timed as it will not have time to recover and will not be as strong as forecast as it goes over Okinawa.



The current eye has become ragged and cloud filled:




I've noticed that once some hurricanes go through their first eye wall replacement cycle, they seem to repeatedly go through additional ones with little time in between of not being in one.
Quoting wxmod:


Those are smoke plumes of huge fires. There are absolutely no cirrus in the photo of Washington.
Check it out on inciweb.


Ouch. That's a lot of smoke. :(
Quoting Grothar:


Maybe they can find my birth certificate.


Etched in stone no doubt.
Miriam has literally bit the dust and is rapidly weakening. Nadine is actually looking like a strong TS again and maybe could become a hurricane.

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Ouch. That's a lot of smoke. :(

If you put up the zoom to 400% 0n that photo that wxmod posted at 172, it sure looks like some sort of mess is going on on the ground in more than one place.
I would say its not cloud or natural atmospheric conditions but some sort of pollution, probably fire based.
Quoting Jedkins01:



I've noticed that once some hurricanes go through their first eye wall replacement cycle, they seem to repeatedly go through additional ones with little time in between of not being in one.

That certainly has been the case with Jelawat. I believe this is it's third one. What's been impressive is how it hasn't weakened at all during it's previous two, likely due to the fact that it completed them very quickly. This one is different though, conditions are no longer as favorable and it will likely take quite a hit over the next 12 hours.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That certainly has been the case with Jelawat. I believe this is it's third one. What's been impressive is how it hasn't weakened at all during it's previous two, likely due to the fact that it completed them very quickly. This one is different though, conditions are no longer as favorable and it will likely take quite a hit over the next 12 hours.

Or, it should, anyways.
Quoting auburn:


That troll can edit his post but cant remove them that I know of..I bet admin got them.
auburn.....If Bo had not been hurt he would have been the greatest athlete ever.... My opinion
After more than a year of drought here in Andalucia, Spain we now have a spin off from Nadine causing all sorts of heavy rainfall events over the area.
About 4 inches has fallen allready today in parts of the Cadiz province and up to 8 inches more is forcast in some local areas over the next 2 days.
Its hammering down enough to effect visability and distort images here in the Seville area tonight.
Well welcome to the mud season tomorrow. Some of our dams were down to 20% capacity last week.
Trolls for today.Let's see ANOTHERBUSTLIKEISAID should have been an obvious name of a troll...Why do you all fall for it every time?.
199. wxmod
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wx13..I wasn't trying to be rude... But airplanes have propellers, jets have , "jet engines". The exhaust at heights of 35,000 ft freeze leaving a contrail... Actually, and also, When my ex was stationed at Eielson AFB AK , many, many years ago I was with him. He was a weather observer... That is where I got my interest. Anyway... When the "jets" took off from the base in extreme cold temperatures (minus 50 and 60) they would leave a contrail over the whole base including the tarmac and the runway which they sometimes had to close until the contrail drifted off... Ice fog is a real problem in the extreme temperature that most people don't experience in the lower 48.


That's very interesting. In a dozen years of scouring satellite photos of contrails, I have never seen even one in Alaska. Not even one!!!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
auburn.....If Bo had not been hurt he would have been the greatest athlete ever.... My opinion


He is still Famous here..
I can see tweedledum is back.

Funny how they always run off in late-August when school starts back up ;).
Nadine trying to reDEEM herself.Well isn't this just lovely(sarcastic tone) a pack of nasty storms are off to my west.I've been over thunderstorms since June...But this year won't quite...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Or, it should, anyways.

With this season there is no will, only should.
Now I went back a few pages and it showed a possible cape verde storm sometime the second week of October.Oh c'mon now.I'll believe it when I see it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine trying to reDEEM herself.Well isn't this just lovely(sarcastic tone) a pack of nasty storms are off to my west.I've been over thunderstorms since June...But this year won't quite...

Haha i was gonna see here we go again Wash
Quoting Jedkins01:


It is funny how people desperately want to believe things like that.

It's a great science experiment to send stuff to mars. But there is no evidence there were ever beings on mars, just as there is no evidence that doing dances around fires with masks on your faces wards away evil spirits...
I'd say the chances are about a million trillion to one that Mars ever held intelligent life. But an increasing number of scientists have theorized that life may have first developed in a more habitable somewhere else eons ago--perhaps Mars?--then involuntarily migrated to Earth via panspermia. Think about that: we might all be Martians at the genetic level. (Which would explain my ex brother-in-law.)
Quoting Doppler22:

Haha i was gonna see here we go again Wash
Well for the last two days we have had a humid air mass.The air mass around here is still humid.So those storms are going to be feeding off of that when they come in this direction.I'll be a waiting my impending doom in the mean time :).
8pm TWO:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS STILL ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 730 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES.

I kind of LOL'd.
209. wxmod
Texas grungy cirrus clouds today. And some jets flying around. MODIS


Down to 50% for 94E.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE COAST OF WESTERN
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STILL FORM BEFORE THE
LOW REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
E.

Quoting Thing342:
8pm TWO:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS STILL ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 730 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES.

I kind of LOL'd.
Even their getting bored of her.Lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We die on December 21, 2012.


HERE 13

Quoting washingtonian115:
Even their getting bored of her.Lol.

I'm getting tired of forecasting her just to have her do the unexpected.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'd say the chances are about a million trillion to one that Mars ever held intelligent life. But an increasing number of scientists have theorized that life may have first developed in a more habitable somewhere else eons ago--perhaps Mars?--then involuntarily migrated to Earth via panspermia. Think about that: we might all be Martians at the genetic level. (Which would explain my ex brother-in-law.)


People intent on making involved scientific arguments to argue their case in certain subjects (e.g., global warming) might want to refrain from inventing extraordinary probabilities (a quintillion, or 10^18) to discuss other subjects, in order to protect their credibility.
So the GFS shows around 10 inches of rain over my area the next 5 days, this will be a enjoyable few days if this turns out. Ready to see the lakes fill up.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm getting tired of forecasting her just to have her do the unexpected.
My local newspaper dubbed her "Never dye Nadine".She's determined!!.
217. JLPR2
Impressive looking mess, I wish it would reach the NE Caribbean with some nice clouds, wouldn't mind some stormy and slightly cooler days. :\

B-29 contrails

Looks like the NHC is having Nadine stall by the Azores in 4 days or so. Hopefully it wont turn east and loop again. O.o
Yeah and on 12/22/12 I will wave my fist proudly in the air and yell SUCCESS and go about my Christmas shopping.
Quoting LesBonsTemps:


People intent on making involved scientific arguments to argue their case in certain subjects (e.g., global warming) might want to refrain from inventing extraordinary probabilities (a quintillion, or 10^18) to discuss other subjects, in order to protect their credibility.
I've found that I don't really need to argue any "case" where climate change is involved; nature seems to be doing a great job all by itself, don't you think? ;-)

But having said that, there's nothing wrong with anybody--including you and me--from stating our opinion on any subject discussed here, so long as we state that it is indeed only an opinion (notice that my comment did just that, beginning as it did with with, "I'd say the chances are about..."). Stick around awhile; you'll see that's how things work around these parts...
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
So the GFS shows around 10 inches of rain over my area the next 5 days, this will be a enjoyable few days if this turns out. Ready to see the lakes fill up.


do you have the map of that?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine


That didn't quite work, lol.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


do you have the map of that?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That didn't quite work, lol.
It was suppose to be the forever alone face.
Good evening all!
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was suppose to be the forever alone face.

Yeah...I wouldn't recommend posting that, lol. You know how admins are now.

Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all!

Whats up Nigel! How's life in Jamaica?
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all!

Good evening Nigel, how is the weather?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...I wouldn't recommend posting that, lol. You know how admins are now.


Hey Nigel! How's life in Jamaica?
Ah but it would have been the perfect for Nadine.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ah but it would have been the perfect for Nadine.

It would but we don't want to lose ya Wash, we can use our imagination to picture it though.
ATCF says...Nadine is still 55 knots.

AL, 14, 2012092800, , BEST, 0, 286N, 331W, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 50, 1014, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah...I wouldn't recommend posting that, lol. You know how admins are now.


Whats up Nigel! How's life in Jamaica?

hey TA! Life is pretty good in Jamaica at this time.
how have you been??
Atlantis Launch as seen from the High Flying NASA WB-57



9 Sept 2006






228. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:39 AM GMT on September 28, 2012 0
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was suppose to be the forever alone face.
Yeah...I wouldn't recommend posting that, lol. You know how admins are now.


Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all!
Whats up Nigel! How's life in Jamaica?



ya i know i took it down after 45 time limit
Goodbye Miriam.

EP, 13, 2012092800, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1166W, 30, 999, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 140, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MIRIAM, M,
Quoting nigel20:

hey TA! Life is pretty good in Jamaica at this time.
how have you been??

Ehhh....

Lol.
Jelawat

MTSAT-1R Imagery - 60 Minutes

xx32Z

Imagery available about 25 minutes later.
Rainbow Long Loop


Quoting wxchaser97:

Good evening Nigel, how is the weather?

We had quite a bit of rain today, but we are still having below normal rainfall..
Okinawa Weather at a Glance/wunderground page

Tomorrow
82 | 72 °F
T-storms
100% chance of precipitation
Typhoon Jelawat
Quoting wxchaser97:

It would but we don't want to lose ya Wash, we can use our imagination to picture it though.
Yeah but if you haven't seen the picture don't look.Because you'll be scared!.
Quoting Patrap:
Jelawat

MTSAT-1R Imagery - 60 Minutes

xx32Z

Imagery available about 25 minutes later.
Rainbow Long Loop



Very impressive.
Winds are up to 30 knots, pressure is down to 1006 millibars.

EP, 94, 2012092800, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1080W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting nigel20:

Very impressive.


Def the hairiest place on the Globe currently.

Jelawat:

Quoting nigel20:

Very impressive.


Hey Nigel.
Quoting Civicane49:


Hey Nigel.

Hey Civicane! How are you doing?
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Civicane! How are you doing?


Doing good. Been a little busy. You?
Quoting Patrap:
The Pup's of Issac


Congrats!!!!
Quoting Civicane49:


Doing good. Been a little busy. You?

I've been pretty busy as well, but i'm good.
Quoting auburn:


Congrats!!!!


They are Huge aubie,.. : )
Eight years ago, Jeanne paid central Florida a visit. She overstayed her welcome. She just kept blowing and blowing and blowing...

By the time she left, I was so shell-shocked by Charlie, Frances and Jeanne, that whenever I looked out the window and saw the leaves on the trees moving the least little bit, I had to go check the NHC website to see if another one was headed for us.

~shivers~



Tropical Storm Nadine:

There were 70 advisories for Bertha and there have been 61 advisories for Nadine, so far.
Quoting Grothar:


Nice wave.
Watching contrails June 19, 1944. Japanese raid.

Total ACE (Atlantic): 89.5
Nadine: 16.0

Source: wiki
I should also note that Kyle 2002 had 89 advisories
Quoting Patrap:


They are Huge aubie,.. : )


I bet..they get big fast!
Quoting nigel20:
Total ACE (Atlantic): 89.5


Hi nigel. It has been a September with below normal rainfall in PR.(-3.86 inches below normal) But at least this week we have recieved a bit.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel. It has been a September with below normal rainfall in PR.But at least this week we have recieved a bit.

Hey tropics! Same here...though it has been pretty wet in central Jamaica.
Quoting Grothar:


Blob.
Quoting 12george1:
There were 70 advisories for Bertha and there have been 61 advisories for Nadine, so far.


Yea, Bertha was another one that just wouldn't die.
Quoting JLPR2:
Impressive looking mess, I wish it would reach the NE Caribbean with some nice clouds, wouldn't mind some stormy and slightly cooler days. :\



Oh my dear friend, I'M SO AGREE WITH YOU! Let's pray for it come here in the NE Caribbean :-)))))))))))
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'd say the chances are about a million trillion to one that Mars ever held intelligent life.
Really. I'm in for $1 on that one easily. I like the return of 1 quintrillion, and it's easily worth the chance that you could wake up one morning to a world economy changing event in your favor(better than the old bank error) because of something that Rover unmarsed. Stick to climate change and other stuff but leave the odds to me:)....on this one you get even action at odds that I'd set at 50,000/1 for sporting purposes.
Not sure if this site has been mentioned yet, but NOAA is going to be using public opinion to help classify tropical cyclones from the past now.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if this site has been mentioned yet, but NOAA is going to be using public opinion to help classify tropical cyclones from the past now.

Link


I think Levi posted it earlier. I'm pretty much addicted to it now, haha.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if this site has been mentioned yet, but NOAA is going to be using public opinion to help classify tropical cyclones from the past now.

Link

It is hard to get off that site now, it was posted earlier.
Well, I see that Grothar has found a blob....

Rather far away at the moment, but I am hoping that it makes it to the southern Caribbean. Have my doubts though.....
We could use some rain.

Like most of the other Islands, August was far below average, and September so far too.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if this site has been mentioned yet, but NOAA is going to be using public opinion to help classify tropical cyclones from the past now.

Link


You know there's going to be someone who goes on here during DMAX on a cyclone and give it a Category 3+ rating and then give it a weak TS rating by 5pm ;)
Neo, are you saying the lizard people evolved here on earth all along. And on a serious note, whens the first blizzard of the year or where.
Last advisory for Miriam.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
800 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2012

...MIRIAM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 116.7W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST.
MIRIAM HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SHIP REPORT NEAR THE CENTER OF MIRIAM INDICATES THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MIRIAM SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 62
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT ON IR IMAGES IS THE
BEST IT HAS BEEN IN A WEEK. NADINE LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. NADINE
HAS MANAGED TO AVOID OR REPEL THE SHEAR AND SURVIVED THE COOL
WATERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE A LITTLE BIT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING...BUT NOT MUCH...SHOULD THEN BEGIN IN 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NADINE AND INCREASES THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR.
THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODELS.

NADINE HAS SPENT A LARGE PORTION OF ITS LIFE TRAPPED WITHIN A
BLOCKING PATTERN. IT IS NOW SOUTH OF A RIDGE...AND IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. SOON IT WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE FORCED TO TURN SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE STORY DOES NOT END THERE...AND IT IS DEJA
VU ALL OVER AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH NADINE...BUT IT WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...LEAVING
NADINE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING FLOW AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BE DRIFTING
AIMLESSLY SOUTHWEST AND FAR FROM AZORES. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 28.8N 33.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 29.0N 34.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 30.4N 35.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 32.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 34.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 37.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
...TWO-WEEK-OLD NADINE STILL ROAMING THE ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 27
Location: 28.8°N 33.6°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 28.8N 33.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 29.0N 34.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 30.4N 35.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 32.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 34.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 36.5N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 37.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
Quoting Thrawst:


Blob.


Doofus.
Possible blob formation off the coast of east Florida.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Neo, are you saying the lizard people evolved here on earth all along. And on a serious note, whens the first blizzard of the year or where.


What I always wondered about, if it is called the "Red" planet, how come the inhabitants are supposed to be green?
Quoting Grothar:


What I always wondered about, if it is called the "Red" planet, how come the inhabitants are supposed to be green?


Most Communist are green with envy?
I'm thinking Nadine could become a hurricane again as she is even trying to form an eye feature again.
Quoting Grothar:


What I always wondered about, if it is called the "Red" planet, how come the inhabitants are supposed to be green?
They never mastered the art of blending in like a chamelion.
Why do you think they died off?
aDuh!
293. JLPR2
00z GFS, interesting in the Gulf and the E-Atl.

Nadine should be remembered for been there to "all mighty September"... in this one of the most non-eventually, storm wise Septembers, in decades...So, praise Nadine...so faithful, showing face and respect to the peak of the season....
Quoting CosmicEvents:
They never mastered the art of blending in like a chamelion.
Why do you think they died off?
aDuh!


It was easier in my day. All we had was Superman and Wonder Woman. Flying saucers were just coming into vogue.
Quoting JLPR2:
00z GFS, interesting in the Gulf and the E-Atl.



Again, another fish... and the E Carib will remain dry. I pray for not though :)
Jelawat:

That's a large eyewall.

Five hour old Nadine:

Quoting LesBonsTemps:


People intent on making involved scientific arguments to argue their case in certain subjects (e.g., global warming) might want to refrain from inventing extraordinary probabilities (a quintillion, or 10^18) to discuss other subjects, in order to protect their credibility.


This contains a couple of problems.
First, why are you attributing "protecting credibility" to a remark that is in no way trying to establish anything other than continuation of a talking point?

And your pointed innuendo to the subject's stand on global warming to introduce a fallacious statement makes no real sense, other than as a general message of derision.

So evidently, that must be your point because nothing else makes any sense.
302. BtnTx
Quoting Grothar:


What I always wondered about, if it is called the "Red" planet, how come the inhabitants are supposed to be green?
so they can see each other?
I've noticed on a past few runs of the GFS that there is a pretty strong ridge setting up in the Atlantic centered around Bermuda, while there is a pretty strong trough over the Azores. What that will likely do is turn any storm that comes off the coast of Africa north into the weakness, however, if the storm fails to materialize it could get trapped under the ridge over Bermuda and likely head west for a while. The ridge actually noses its way over FL.

Here is the latest GFS:

Quoting BtnTx:
so they can see each other?


Now that's funny LoL !!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I've noticed on a past few runs of the GFS that there is a pretty strong ridge setting up in the Atlantic centered around Bermuda, while there is a pretty strong trough over the Azores. What that will likely do is turn any storm that comes off the coast of Africa north into the weakness, however, if the storm fails to materialize it could get trapped under the ridge over Bermuda and likely head west for a while. The ridge actually noses its way over FL.

Here is the latest GFS:



The GFS is unrealistically amplifying that ridge!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a blog tonight, the first time in over two months.

Nadine spinning in the Atlantic, still; Miriam dies, Invest 94E unlikely to develop
I forgot to ask this earlier in the day, but is it possible that the remnants of 94E is the system the GFS develops in the GOM?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a blog tonight, the first time in over two months.

Nadine spinning in the Atlantic, still; Miriam dies, Invest 94E unlikely to develop


Consistency is what counts. Try again. :P
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I forgot to ask this earlier in the day, but is it possible that the remnants of 94E is the system the GFS develops in the GOM?


New Orleans NWS says it's supposed to originate from the shortwave over Texas. They didn't specify whether 94E's residual energy would help to invigorate the low, but I suppose anything's possible.
Quoting KoritheMan:


New Orleans NWS says it's supposed to originate from the shortwave over Texas. They didn't specify whether 94E's residual energy would help to invigorate the low, but I suppose anything's possible.
Will be interesting to see what happens, did they mention whether it would be non-tropical or tropical?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a blog tonight, the first time in over two months.

Nadine spinning in the Atlantic, still; Miriam dies, Invest 94E unlikely to develop


Nice job TA13..

I liked the deja-vu part.. :)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Will be interesting to see what happens, did they mention whether it would be non-tropical or tropical?


They were implicitly in the non-tropical department. But, my personal opinion from looking at the GFS, is that the shear may relax enough to potentially allow subtropical development. Notice that I said "potentially".
Nadine to surpass Michael in ACE very soon.
Quoting KoritheMan:


They were implicitly in the non-tropical department. But, my personal opinion from looking at the GFS, is that the shear may relax enough to potentially allow subtropical development. Notice that I said "potentially".


Kori, get to bed. You have to get up in 9 hours.
Jelawat (02:35 UTC):

Quoting Grothar:


Kori, get to bed. You have to get up in 9 hours.


No need for that. I can sleep all I need when I'm dead.
317. JLPR2
GFS Fantasy Wonderland is pretty interesting.

Gfs supposedly show us Oscar and Patty I think before anything is done for good we would have reach Sandy or Tony.
I wonder if the Gulf storm can generate stronger winds than my sneeze this time? I dared 93L to do so, but it just couldn't.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST September 28 2012
================================

The well marked low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighborhood persists..

Broken Low/Medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over Bay of Bengal between 8.5N to 17.0N west of 91.0E in association with a vortex over the area centered around 13.5N 87.0E

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
15:00 PM JST September 28 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon South Of Ishigaki Jima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (925 hPa) located at 23.4N 124.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
240 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 26.2N 128.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Naha, Okinawa
48 HRS: 30.9N 133.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Shikoku Island (Japan)
72 HRS: 41.1N 143.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Sanriku Region (Japan)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EWINIAR (T1218)
15:00 PM JST September 28 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ewiniar (985 hPa) located at 31.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
210 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 35.5N 147.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Japan
48 HRS: 41.3N 156.9E - Extratropical Cyclone Sea Far East Of Japan
Quoting KoritheMan:
I blog to the dead again. Also did a section on the Gulf of Mexico storm.

there is a storm in the GOM. cool, something to track in the Atl other than Nadine
70 mph Nadine...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 280852
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

NADINE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH SATELLITE IMAGES
HAVING HINTS OF AN EYE ON THE INFRARED CHANNEL DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER
CORE AND A MOSTLY CLOSED EYEWALL. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
60 KT...NEAR THE LATEST CIMSS MICROWAVE ESTIMATES. WHILE THE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE...SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT
60 KT...ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
IF NADINE BECAME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. NADINE WILL ALSO BE MOVING
OVER COLDER WATERS....AND THESE FACTORS SHOULD START A WEAKENING
TREND. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
IN THE LONGER RANGE...CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

NADINE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KT. A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST
48H OF THE FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
NADINE WILL STALL FOR A DAY OR SO AS IT WAITS FOR A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE FORECAST AIDS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THE
LONGER RANGE...WITH THE UKMET NOW JOINING A PACK OF MODELS THAT
INCLUDES THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THIS SOLUTION. THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNUSUAL
SOUTHWARD CYCLONIC LOOP DUE TO NADINE MOVING WITHIN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE
AND THE FACT THAT MORE MODELS ARE TRENDING EASTWARD...THE NHC
FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTIONS FOR DAYS 4
AND 5...BUT IS STILL CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATEST DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 29.0N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 29.6N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 31.1N 35.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 32.9N 36.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 35.0N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 36.4N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 36.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 37.0N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
327. VR46L
I know its pretty much the wrong time of year but this is one strong wave coming off Africa ...
Funktop


Rainbow


Quoting KoritheMan:
I blog to the dead again. Also did a section on the Gulf of Mexico storm.


the dead have spoken... :)

evening mate!

mornin' everyone else!
Anyone know the record number of advisories for a tropical cyclone?

Did some quick research, I found out that Dr Masters made a mistake. Ginger was 1971 not 1970.
She lasted from 0000Z September 6th as a TD->TS->HU->TS->TD or 109 advisories. At 0600Z on October the 3rd she was downgraded to ex-tropical and she lasted another 9 advisories after that or till 0600Z October 5 1971. I have linked all these images to the original.












Good morning folks..amazing Nadine is going to break records i think in the longevity books huh............
looks like the dry parts of Texas are finally getting some rain........

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
445 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ECTOR COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
MIDLAND COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 437 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE MIDLAND AND
ODESSA AREAS AGAIN. RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
QUICKLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AT LEAST ONE INCH AN HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
ODESSA...WARFIELD...VALLEY VIEW...SPRABERRY...ODESSA...NOTREES...
NORTH COWDEN...MISSION DORADO...MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
MIDLAND...GREENWOOD...GOLDSMITH...GARDENDALE AND COTTON FLAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
Good morning and good evening to everyone. I see Nadine is still trying to get to the number one spot for longevity.
I'm wondering from looking at the shear map, what made the shear in the atlantic increase so much?
Update from Kadena Air Base on Okinawa island Japan.

Good morning everyone, I see Nadine is almost a hurricane again. I am really getting tired of Nadine living on, I can't imagine some of the storms that lived even longer.
Happy Friday to all from Buda Tx., first flash flood watch here in some time, Our Lakes and Aquifers are begging for it. These heavy rains should put a little water into Lake Travis which is down for past 2 years 50 feet.

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHEAST INTO TEXAS TODAY...RESULTING IN
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAINS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY TODAY...AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR AREAS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
HEAVY RAINS WILL NOT ONLY PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG LARGER STREAMS
AND RIVERS.




It's Friday, it's supposed to rain all weekend. What more could I ask for?

Everyone have a great Friday!!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
It's Friday, it's supposed to rain all weekend. What more could I ask for?

Everyone have a great Friday!!

Well it's good you are getting rain, have a great Friday. My CoCoRaHS gauge has recorded another 0 and I woke up felling terrible.
Quoting Gearsts:
I'm wondering from looking at the shear map, what made the shear in the atlantic increase so much?
EI NIñO
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning and good evening to everyone. I see Nadine is still trying to get to the number one spot for longevity.



Hangin' in there like a hair in a biscuit.
Quoting Gearsts:
I'm wondering from looking at the shear map, what made the shear in the atlantic increase so much?


Fall?
mojos moving in


This out of MOBILE NWS this morning:


LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY
SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING A SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON
SATURDAY...THEN MOVING THE STRENGTHENING LOW EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER TROF DEEPENS
TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA. WITH THIS...RAIN CHANCES (IN THE FORM
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS) ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY POPS SATURDAY TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS THE WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM OUR AREA. INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF THE
FCST PERIOD AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S...AND
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL. 12/DS
Very hostile environment in the MDR, no signs of tropical activity for a long time. forget the survivor Nadine, she has been around for sometime.
Quoting PlazaRed:
After more than a year of drought here in Andalucia, Spain we now have a spin off from Nadine causing all sorts of heavy rainfall events over the area.
About 4 inches has fallen allready today in parts of the Cadiz province and up to 8 inches more is forcast in some local areas over the next 2 days.
Its hammering down enough to effect visability and distort images here in the Seville area tonight.
Well welcome to the mud season tomorrow. Some of our dams were down to 20% capacity last week.


Indeed, Spain is going to get hammered with severe rain right now. Read the warnings and analyses at Estofex:
http://estofex.org/
and have a look at the satellite.

And btw, hello again from Germany after some time, because I'm just back from a lovely vacation in Italy (Toscana) with a lot of beach- and mountainwalking as well as enjoying a bunch of culture and art. Maybe I'll send some pics later, but unfortunately a lot of work has to be done in the office after all this lazyness, sigh.
I am surprised no one posted this as possibly we will have a new epac TS. 94E is up to 80% and advisories will be initiated at 11am likely.

1. A POORLY DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES
OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING...AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND HUATABAMPITO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
not so sure fury. mdr has stepped it up past three days
Going directly from an 80% "poorly defined area of low pressure" to a TS, the EPac now has Norman, at least according to the ATCF:

EP, 14, 2012092812, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1087W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 30, 1006, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORMAN, M,
Anyone know when the lates a CV storm formed?

And Nadine is, once again, a hurricane, 280 or so hours since she was last one (and almost exactly one week after turning extratropical):

AL, 14, 2012092812, , BEST, 0, 293N, 344W, 65, 993, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,

Speaking of: at this morning's 5AM EDT TWO, Nadine moved ahead of Michael to claim first place in the 2012 ACE race.

As of this mornings 11AM EDT TWO, it will have been more than 400 hours--402, to be precise--since Nadine was first named.
through 120 hours-6z GFS
NWS huntsville and Birmingham are monitoring the potential for a longterm severe weather threat possibly associated with the gulf low...

CAPE wont be too great unless the LLJ from the low and the MLJ in the trough line up to shear the clouds out a bit. It is too long term to tell anyway. I'm hoping some of it actually gets into GA if it forms.
Quoting islander101010:
not so sure fury. mdr has stepped it up past three days

The water is boiling. If a T-wave comes off in the right atmospheric conditions, we could have another system to track.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
They never mastered the art of blending in like a chamelion.
Why do you think they died off?
aDuh!
Good morning all. In reading back so I can catch up this morning, I think I have the answer. As a child I was told NOT to put a chameleon on anything red because they would try to turn that color and it would kill them. Maybe that is what happened to the little green men on Mars :) Staying on topic, the weather here in the Keys this morning was 82 degrees with 90% humidity. I must be part orchid. I didn't mind the humidity.
Quoting weatherbro:


The GFS is unrealistically amplifying that ridge!

You are biased towards getting winter to set itself in the Northern Hemisphere based on your anti-B/A ridge comments and pro-snow/noreaster/eastern troughiness comments that you have been posting the last several weeks it seems, lol :)
12.5N/80.5W looks interesting this morning.
Nadine is once again a Hurricane. This thing is the energizer bunny, just keeps on going, and going, and going, and going.


Nadine doesn't look half bad at all.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.2 5.3
Good Morning. That "compensated" big-picture loop from NOAA because of the Satt issue looks like a Monet painting..............Blurry blobs and swirls everywhere.

Link
Looking at the wind shear map it seems like has soon has we get the N storm out of the way hurricane season may be coming too a end
Quoting ncstorm:
through 120 hours-6z GFS


Good morning NC and all. Looks to be interesting for the south this weekend. We're under a flash flood watch in central TX until tomorrow evening with 2-4 inches and up to 8 inches isolated expected. We'll be gearing up for the usual low water crossing rescues that are bound to happen with this one.
Quoting lobdelse81:

You are biased towards getting winter to set itself in the Northern Hemisphere based on your anti-B/A ridge comments and pro-snow/noreaster/eastern troughiness comments that you have been posting the last several weeks it seems, lol :)


LOL now that's a mouth full!
Nadine looks good.Seems it once to make a run at cat 2 status.
Nadine becomes a hurricane again - 65 knots

Looks more like Van Gough. Very good use of color on that one. Waiting for the Rain to commence here in the Houston area.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. That "compensated" big-picture loop from NOAA because of the Satt issue looks like a Monet painting..............Blurry blobs and swirls everywhere.

Link

Quoting stormpetrol:
12.5N/80.5W looks interesting this morning.




Heavy rain & thunderstorms here just now Storm... looks like a wet Friday for us
Quoting fireflymom:
Looks more like Van Gough. Very good use of color on that one. Waiting for the Rain to commence here in the Houston area.



That's who I meant (Starry Night)..........Thanks.
Quoting Neapolitan:
And Nadine is, once again, a hurricane, 280 or so hours since she was last one (and almost exactly one week after turning extratropical):

AL, 14, 2012092812, , BEST, 0, 293N, 344W, 65, 993, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,

Speaking of: at this morning's 5AM EDT TWO, Nadine moved ahead of Michael to claim first place in the 2012 ACE race.

As of this mornings 11AM EDT TWO, it will have been more than 400 hours--402, to be precise--since Nadine was first named.


The point made in a recent NHC FX was that Nadine's lengthy lifespan can be attributed to a persistent block. As is the case over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Along the west coast, a ridge has more or less been in place for 8 weeks along 130W and shows no signs of breaking down. Pac Nw rainfall is currently in the mid single percentile for the month of September and is approaching 100 year records in Washington and southern BC. So, given the teleconnection, Nadine may be around for a week or two yet.
Quoting thunderfrance:
Nadine becomes a hurricane again - 65 knots



Nadine might very well be stronger than 65kts.
Nadine is waiting for the next storm to form in the Atlantic then that's when she'll die..in another two weeks...Lol.
lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine is waiting for the next storm to form in the Atlantic then that's when she'll die..in another two weeks...Lol.
When could we see Nadine upgraded to a Hurricane again? 11am??
Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine is waiting for the next storm to form in the Atlantic then that's when she'll die..in another two weeks...Lol.

What if there isn't another storm, she'll just hang out there till next season?
Quoting AussieStorm:
When could we see Nadine upgraded to a Hurricane again? 11am??
Yes.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Going directly from an 80% "poorly defined area of low pressure" to a TS, the EPac now has Norman, at least according to the ATCF:

EP, 14, 2012092812, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1087W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 0, 30, 1006, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NORMAN, M,
I doubt Norm will be able to get very strong, as it is not well organized. 45 mph TS at best.
Sky News Australia has finally caught onto what I was saying in my Bush fire blog
:D :D :D :D :D :D :D

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012

SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA NOW HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. SHIPS OBSERVATIONS
OF 45 TO 50 KT FROM ELEVATED ANEMOMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS AROUND 40 KT...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN AT THIS TIME. NORMAN IS SITUATED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT A
DEGREE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS SHEAR IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...SO THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...QUICK WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14...AS NORMAN IS SITUATED
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND NORMAN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MAY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH LANDFALL.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
CENTER SINCE NORMAN HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE
WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR
WESTERN DURANGO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 22.8N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 24.8N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.5N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 27.5N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED


Quoting AussieStorm:

What if there isn't another storm, she'll just hang out there till next season?
Maybe she can meet up with Karen and they can discuss about there long stay in the Atlantic.
If anyone cares, I have a Twitter account, you can follow me here.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nadine is once again a Hurricane. This thing is the energizer bunny, just keeps on going, and going, and going, and going.


Nadine doesn't look half bad at all.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.2 5.3


Nadine is just going... going... going... going...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe she can meet up with Karen and they can discuss about there long stay in the Atlantic.

I think 1971 Ginger is still out there somewhere also.
Quoting AussieStorm:
If anyone cares, I have a Twitter account, you can follow me here.
You sound like one of those desperate high schoolers Aussie that put there twitter accounts all over the school property(J/K)But seriously.When my daughter told me I didn't believe her until I went to her school for school night.It as real sad...
Gee, I just noticed Dr Masters fixed up the mistake he made with Gingers year.

Was 1) Ginger, 1970: 21.25 named storm days

Now 1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days

Thanks for not crediting me with picking up your mistake Dr Masters.

Your welcome
391. wxmod
Very polluted cirrus and a possible expanded rocket trail south east of Jelawat. This type of pollution tends to slide a storm toward it, in this case, East. MODIS

Quoting washingtonian115:
You sound like one of those desperate high schoolers Aussie that put there twitter accounts all over the school property(J/K)But seriously.When my daughter told me I didn't believe her until I went to her school for school night.It as real sad...

Oh, you serious??? I wouldn't have a clue about that over here, I not been to skool in 18years. Can you tel? lol

I only just crossed the 100 mark in followers.
Quoting washingtonian115:
You sound like one of those desperate high schoolers Aussie that put there twitter accounts all over the school property(J/K)But seriously.When my daughter told me I didn't believe her until I went to her school for school night.It as real sad...


Aren't your children less than 7 years old?
I have a twitter account i spread randomly, its a news feed i run/ran (i've kinda left if for a couple weeks...ok months) ....i just randomly shared it with friends or put it places...no desperation there.

My other one is my account that i use with friends, i dont share that, yes im a multiaccounter.

My main social media account is Google Plus, I somewhat dumped facebook and twitter.



btw, this link is addictive Cyclone Center

You are classifying storms based on satellite appearance, by answering questions about form.
I'm guessing the storms as i do them, hopefully i can do a ton when i get out of school today.
Quoting wxmod:
Very polluted cirrus and a possible expanded rocket trail south east of Jelawat. This type of pollution tends to slide a storm toward it, in this case, East. MODIS


Oh what the!!!!! Grabbing at straws there.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Aren't your children less than 7 years old?
I have a twitter account i spread randomly, its a news feed i run/ran (i've kinda left if for a couple weeks...ok months) ....i just randomly shared it with friends or put it places...no desperation there.

My other one is my account that i use with friends, i dont share that, yes im a multiaccounter.

My main social media account is Google Plus, I somewhat dumped facebook and twitter.



btw, this link is addictive Cyclone Center

You are classifying storms based on satellite appearance, by answering questions about form.
I'm guessing the storms as i do them, hopefully i can do a ton when i get out of school today.
No.I have a 17 year old daughter.But writing on school property for attention is kinds desperate if you ask me.Well I didn't grow up in this time period of Technology and social media.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh, you serious??? I wouldn't have a clue about that over here, I not been to skool in 18years. Can you tel? lol

I only just crossed the 100 mark in followers.
Yes.They write it on lockers bathroom stalls.That's all I saw but wouldn't be surprised if it's on other stuff to.
Desert Climate In Western US Influenced By Ancient Water Cycle


The climate change we are currently experiencing, while disconcerting and increasingly uncomfortable, is not unprecedented when viewed through the historical prism of life on Earth.

A study led by researchers from Texas A&M University’s Department of Oceanography looks back at the water cycle that affected the Western United States in an era dating back some 20,000 years. Focusing on the deserts of Utah and Nevada, the team is seeking to learn more about the large inland lakes that once covered this terrain and how those long-gone lakes still affect weather patterns across the region to this day.

Professor of oceanography Mitch Lyle, along with colleagues from Columbia University, University of California – Santa Cruz, Stanford University, Hokkaido University of Japan and Brown University, along with members of the U.S. Geological Survey, performed their research with funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF). Their results are published in the current issue of Science magazine.

In their study, team worked with the long-held hypothesis that these large inland lakes were formed during the last glacial cooling period when large ice caps that covered what is modern-day Canada melted and released water that once covered as much as a quarter of both Nevada and Utah.

With new research, the team seeks to demonstrate a relationship between water cycles in the Southwestern region of the U.S. and the tropics. They believe that this connection, if demonstrated conclusively, will help researchers to understand how water cycles might be perturbed in the future.

Exploration of this region and the discovery of the dry shorelines of these glacial lakes dates back to nineteenth-century geological research, when the west was first being explored. At the time, the source of the additional water was unknown. It was only by poring over data related to the collection of ocean sediments as well as samples culled from the dry western valleys that Lyle and the team found a new water cycle connection linking the region to tropical influence.

“Large ice caps profoundly altered where storms went during glacial periods. Before this study, it was assumed that Pacific winter storms that now track into Washington and Canada were pushed south into central and southern California,” Lyle notes. “However, by comparing timing between wet intervals on the coast, where these storms would first strike, with growth of the inland lakes, we found that they didn’t match.”

By examining pollen buried in marine sediments, Lyle was able to time wet periods along the California coast. These pollen samples were collected via core sampling performed by scientists associated with the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program at Texas A&M. Their lake level evaluations were drawn from southeast Oregon, Nevada, Utah, eastern California, New Mexico and west Texas, with the intent of determining when the lakes would fill in different parts of the west.

“Many teams of scientists have been working on this problem since the 1950s, when radiocarbon dating first allowed ages to be put on old shorelines,” Lyle adds. “The data we synthesized covers a wide latitude so that we could determine how the glacial wet intervals operated.”

Of particular interest was the observation that only in southern California’s coastal wet intervals was there a match to the high, inland lakes. This finding is what pointed the researchers to the tropical connection they had come to believe existed. This indicated that storms would cycle into the region from the tropical Pacific, originating west of Mexico.

“We think that the extra precipitation may have come in summer, enhancing the now weak summer monsoon in the desert southwest. But we need more information about what season the storms arrived to strengthen this speculation,” Lyle says.

Not only is the development of the glacial lakes important for understanding prehistoric climate patterns, but Lyle believes it likely that the lakes were an important factor in the migration of people into North America. Many of the archaeological sites where early Indians settled when they first came into the U.S. are rock shelters at the edges of these ancient lakes. The lakes were a major source of fish and a gathering place for deer and wildfowl at that time.

“What we need to do now is look at all of this on a finer scale,” Lyle points out. “We need to understand better the processes that directed the storms thousands of years ago, and to predict better what changes might occur in the future.”


Source: Alan McStravick for redOrbit.com - Your Universe Online

redOrbit (http://s.tt/1oC5Q)
Quoting washingtonian115:
No.I have a 17 year old daughter.But writing on school property for attention is kinds desperate if you ask me.Well I didn't grow up in this time period of Technology and social media. Yes.They write it on lockers bathroom stalls.That's all I saw but wouldn't be surprised if it's on other stuff to.


oh, you can write stuff anywhere, excessively is vandalism, but you can find stuff anywhere.
Had several thousand followers, but i left it.
Doing it for your personal account is kinda stupid but i was running a news thing so. I would put stuff on bulletin boards etc.
Writing twitter handles etc is something people do all the time.
398. wxmod
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh what the!!!!! Grabbing at straws there.


I thought it was an interesting idea attacking Jelawat this way. It might actually work. Must have been lots of aluminum in that rocket fuel.
I see Nadine is intensifying and could approach cat 2 intensity before weakening.btw could that tropical wave near Africa develop into something how is wind shear doing near there.I cannot believe Norman form I thought that low press will not develop into something it remember me like the depression that was down to 20%.btw I am in computer class so I will not be long.
Ok, which person followed me then unfollowed me on Twitter? lol, I went from 102 to 104 now 103
Nadine is back to a hurricane?
WTNT34 KNHC 281444
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

...NADINE BECOMES A HURRICANE FOR THE SECOND TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 34.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
That is definitely an eye.

Nadine want's to do a figure 8 now.
A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
Quoting Grothar:
That is definitely an eye.


Hey, she's trying to draw a rough map of Australia.... cool!!!!
Be funny if Nadine did a Micheal.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Be funny if Nadine did a Micheal.

Did Michael make cat 4 or only Cat 3?
Looked like a Cat 4 to me.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey, she's trying to draw a rough map of Australia.... cool!!!!


Hey, if she does New Zealand, we are in trouble.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did Michael make cat 4 or only Cat 3?
Looked like a Cat 4 to me.
Cat 3 status.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Cat 3 status.
Could of been a low end cat 4 easily, without quikscat we couldn't tell.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did Michael make cat 4 or only Cat 3?
Looked like a Cat 4 to me.

I'm with you in believing it was stronger than 115 mph. Looked look like a borderline Category 4.
Ahaha. Nadine's a hurricane again. Go Nadine!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm with you in believing it was stronger than 115 mph. Looked look like a borderline Category 4.

no surface obs, no chance to tell if it was a 3 or 4 only from satellite.
Sunspots 1579 and 1582 came more fully into view yesterday..
(Kind of Halloweenish lookin'.. )
Credit: solarham.net


418. VR46L
Seems to be a few clouds of interest in the western Atlantic ..




Good luck, Plaza!

Heavy rainfall hits south Spain, 5,000 to be evacuated
28 September 2012, 15:37 (GMT 05:00)
Civil authorities in the province of Malaga in south Spain on Friday decided to evacuate around 5,000 people as a result of the heavy rainfall in the region, Xinhua reported.

The areas affected are the towns of Cartama, Alora, Sierra de Yeguas, Villanueva del Trabuco and Genalguacil.

Emergency services have decided to activate their emergency plan in response to the rainfall which is forecast to continue all Friday and into the weekend.

The Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has predicted storms with a possible rainfall of 120 liters per square meters over the coming 12 hours.

Meanwhile, several towns are also suffering from power cuts and are without water due to the rain.

The nearby provinces of Granada, Sevilla, Almeria and Cordoba have also been placed on orange alert over the extreme weather.

The rain has finally put an end to one of the hottest and driest summers on record in Spain which saw average temperatures over 1.5 degrees centigrade higher than average. But rainfall is 37 percent lower than average over the last 12 months.

That has created ideal conditions for the spread of wildfires. About 170,000 hectares of countryside have been destroyed by over 4,000 fires this summer. Enditem

Edit: Unfortunately already one fatality.
I was trying to get a good polar sat shot of that wave around 50W..Everything has missed it so far this morning. Here's Nadine from TRMM..

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Ahaha. Nadine's a hurricane again. Go Nadine!
Chuck would be proud of her, wandering the Atlantic like the Nadine of his song moves about town.

Nice to start with a sunny day and dew point of 47 instead of mid 60s when the front stalled over us midweek.
ISLAMABAD (AP) — Pakistan authorities says more than 400 people have been killed by monsoon rains and flooding this year.

The National Disaster Management Authority says 422 people have been killed and nearly 3,000 have been injured during the season of heavy rains. About five million people have been affected by the resulting floods, according to statistics that were posted on the authority's website Friday.

Pakistan suffers every year from flooding caused by massive monsoon rains that sweep across the country late in the summer and cause rivers and streams to overflow.

An official with the authority, Maj. Iftikhar Ahmed, told the AP that the rainfall this year was significantly less than in 2010, when catastrophic floods put one-fifth of the country under water and killed 1,985 people.
Re the above list of long-lived storms: Ivan (2005) had 21 days from naming to final dissipation (after his 4th landfall.)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Latest on the expected bacon shortage due to drought.

As for American grain crops farmers are sitting on their crops waiting for prices to peak. There is also no pressure to decide right away who to sell their wheat, durum and barley now that the Canadian Wheat Board no longer has a monopoly over the marketing of those grains.